英特爾 (INTC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Intel Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. John Pitzer, Corporate Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

感謝您的支持，歡迎來到英特爾公司 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製中。現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係公司副總裁 John Pitzer 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jonathan. By now, you should have received a copy of the Q4 earnings release and earnings presentation, both of which are available on our investor website, intc.com. For those joining us online today, the earnings presentation is also available in our webcast window. I am joined today by our CEO, Pat Gelsinger; and our CFO, David Zinsner. In a moment, we will hear brief comments from both followed by a Q&A session.

謝謝你，喬納森。到目前為止，您應該已經收到了第四季度收益發布和收益報告的副本，兩者都可以在我們的投資者網站 intc.com 上找到。對於那些今天在線加入我們的人，收益演示文稿也可以在我們的網絡廣播窗口中獲得。今天，我們的首席執行官帕特·蓋爾辛格 (Pat Gelsinger) 加入了我的行列；以及我們的首席財務官 David Zinsner。稍後，我們將聽到雙方的簡短評論，然後是問答環節。

Before we begin, please note that today's discussion does contain forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it. As such, it does involve risks and uncertainties. Our press release provides more information on the specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

在我們開始之前，請注意今天的討論確實包含基於我們目前所見環境的前瞻性陳述。因此，它確實涉及風險和不確定性。我們的新聞稿提供了有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的具體風險因素的更多信息。

We've also provided both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures this quarter, and we will be speaking to the non-GAAP financial measures when describing our consolidated results. The earnings release and earnings presentation include full GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations.

本季度我們還提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標，我們將在描述我們的合併結果時談到非 GAAP 財務指標。收益發布和收益報告包括完整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 調節。

With that, let me turn things over to Pat.

有了這個，讓我把事情交給帕特。

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. Q4 revenue came in at the low end of guide and was impacted by persistent macro headwinds, which began in Q2 and underscored a 2022 characterized by unprecedented volatility, which will continue in the near term.

謝謝約翰，大家下午好。第四季度收入處於指南的低端，並受到持續的宏觀逆風的影響，這種逆風始於第二季度，突顯了 2022 年前所未有的波動性，這種波動將在短期內持續。

We made meaningful progress on several fronts in calendar year '22, notwithstanding all the challenges, but we readily admit our results and our Q1 guidance are below what we expected ourselves. We are working diligently to address the challenges brought on by current demand trends and remain confident in our long-term plans and trajectory.

儘管面臨所有挑戰，我們在 22 日曆年的幾個方面取得了有意義的進展，但我們欣然承認我們的結果和我們的第一季度指導低於我們的預期。我們正在努力應對當前需求趨勢帶來的挑戰，並對我們的長期計劃和軌跡保持信心。

Accordingly, we are even more aggressively executing on the cost measures we described in Q3 even as we keep the investments critical to our long-term transformation intact with a clear eye of making the right capital allocation decision to drive the most long-term value.

因此，我們更加積極地執行我們在第三季度描述的成本措施，同時我們保持對我們的長期轉型至關重要的投資不變，並清楚地著眼於做出正確的資本配置決策以推動最長期的價值。

Today, I'd like to address 3 areas. One, our view on the macro and the markets in which we participate; two, the operational progress we made in 2022; three, as we enter the new year outlining the commitments we are making to all our stakeholders.

今天，我想談三個方面。第一，我們對宏觀和我們參與的市場的看法；二、我們在 2022 年取得的運營進展；第三，在我們進入新的一年時概述我們對所有利益相關者做出的承諾。

First, on the macro. We expect macro weakness to persist at least through the first half of the year with the possibility of second half improvements. However, given the uncertainty in the current environment, we are not going to provide revenue guidance beyond Q1. Dave will provide guidelines for capital spending, depreciation and adjusted free cash flow in his prepared comments.

首先，在宏觀上。我們預計宏觀疲軟至少會持續到今年上半年，並有可能在下半年有所改善。然而，鑑於當前環境的不確定性，我們不會提供第一季度之後的收入指引。戴夫將在他準備好的評論中提供資本支出、折舊和調整後的自由現金流的指導方針。

Having said that, let me give you additional color regarding our view of our markets in 2023. To various degrees, all our markets are being impacted by macro uncertainty, rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions in Europe and COVID impacts in Asia, especially in China.

話雖如此，讓我再談談我們對 2023 年市場的看法。在不同程度上，我們所有的市場都受到宏觀不確定性、利率上升、歐洲地緣政治緊張局勢以及亞洲尤其是中國的 COVID 影響的影響.

In the PC market, we saw a further deterioration as we ended calendar year '22. In Q3, we provided an estimate for the calendar year '23 PC consumption TAM of 270 million to 295 million units. Given continued uncertainty and demand signals we see in Q1, we expect the lower end of that range is a more likely outcome. Near term, the PC ecosystem continues to deplete inventory.

在 PC 市場，我們看到 22 年結束時情況進一步惡化。在第三季度，我們估計 23 年 PC 消費 TAM 為 2.7 億至 2.95 億台。鑑於我們在第一季度看到的持續不確定性和需求信號，我們預計該範圍的下限是更有可能的結果。短期內，PC 生態系統將繼續消耗庫存。

For all of calendar year '22, our sell-in was roughly 10% below consumption with Q4 under-shipping meaningfully higher than full year, and Q1 expected to grow again to represent the most significant inventory digestion in our data set. While we know this dynamic will need to reverse, predicting one is difficult.

對於整個 22 日曆年，我們的銷售量比消費量低約 10%，第四季度出貨量明顯高於全年，預計第一季度將再次增長，代表我們數據集中最重要的庫存消化。雖然我們知道這種動態需要逆轉，但很難預測。

Importantly, PC usage data remains strong, reinforcing that use cases brought on by COVID are persistent even as the economy has reopened. And as we highlighted in our recent PC webinar, strong usage and installed base, which is roughly 10% higher than pre-COVID levels and what we see as a conservative refresh rate, supports a longer-term PC TAM of 300 million units plus or minus, post this period of adjustment.

重要的是，PC 使用數據仍然強勁，這進一步證明，即使經濟重新開放，COVID 帶來的用例仍然存在。正如我們在最近的 PC 網絡研討會中強調的那樣，強大的使用率和安裝基礎比 COVID 之前的水平高出大約 10%，我們認為這是一個保守的刷新率，支持 3 億多台或更多的長期 PC TAM負，發布這段調整期。

We intend to capitalize on this TAM through a strong pipeline of innovation and based on the growing strength of our product portfolio, customers are increasingly betting on Intel. We grew share in the second half of '22, and we expect that positive momentum to continue in '23.

我們打算通過強大的創新渠道利用這一 TAM，並且基於我們產品組合不斷增強的實力，客戶越來越多地押注英特爾。我們在 22 年下半年增加了份額，我們預計這種積極勢頭將在 23 年繼續。

We remain clear eyed on managing to near-term weakness in PCs but we also see the enduring and increasing value PCs have in our daily lives.

我們仍然清楚地關注個人電腦近期的疲軟，但我們也看到了個人電腦在我們日常生活中的持久和不斷增長的價值。

In the server market, the overall consumption TAM grew modestly in calendar year '22, albeit at diminishing rates as the year progressed. Inventory burn drove server CPU shipments down mid-single digits year-on-year in calendar year '22 with hyperscale up, offset by declines in enterprise and Rest of World.

在服務器市場，總體消費 TAM 在 22 日曆年溫和增長，儘管隨著時間的推移增長速度逐漸放緩。庫存消耗導致服務器 CPU 出貨量在 22 日曆年同比下降中等個位數，並被企業和世界其他地區的下降所抵消。

Our share in calendar year '22 was in line with our subdued expectations, and our revenue volatility was a function of TAM, especially given our outsized exposure to enterprise and China. We expect Q1 server consumption TAM to decline both sequentially and year-over-year at an accelerated rate with first half '23 server consumption TAM down year-on-year before returning to growth in the second half.

我們在 22 日曆年的份額符合我們低迷的預期，我們的收入波動是 TAM 的一個函數，特別是考慮到我們對企業和中國的敞口很大。我們預計第一季度服務器消費 TAM 將環比和同比加速下降，23 年上半年服務器消費 TAM 同比下降，然後在下半年恢復增長。

While all segments have weakened, enterprise and rest of world, especially China, continues to be weaker than hyperscale. However, we'd highlight that the correction in enterprise and rest of the world, where we have stronger positions, are further along than hyperscale.

儘管所有細分市場都在走弱，但企業和世界其他地區，尤其是中國，仍然弱於超大規模。然而，我們要強調的是，我們在企業和世界其他地區的調整比超大規模更進一步，我們在這些領域擁有更強大的地位。

Lastly, in our broad-based markets like industrial, auto and infrastructure, demand trends throughout calendar year '22 were strong but not completely immune to the macro volatility. Strong demand in these markets was mirrored by strong Q4 and record calendar year '22 revenue in NEX, PSG, IFS and Mobileye. We see calendar year '23 as another growth year for us in these areas even though the absolute rate is difficult to predict today.

最後，在工業、汽車和基礎設施等基礎廣泛的市場中，整個 22 日曆年的需求趨勢強勁，但並非完全不受宏觀波動的影響。這些市場的強勁需求反映在 NEX、PSG、IFS 和 Mobileye 的第四季度強勁和創紀錄的 22 年收入中。我們將 23 年日曆年視為我們在這些領域的又一個增長年，儘管今天很難預測絕對增長率。

This is in contrast to the semi market ex-memory, which third parties expect to decline low to mid-single digits. We entered 2023 with a view that much of the macro uncertainty of the last year is likely to persist, especially in the first half of the year. As such, we are laser-focused on executing to our $3 billion in calendar year '23 cost savings that we committed on our Q3 earnings call.

這與半市場前存儲器形成鮮明對比，第三方預計後者會下降到中低個位數。進入 2023 年，我們認為去年的大部分宏觀不確定性可能會持續存在，尤其是在今年上半年。因此，我們非常專注於執行我們在第三季度財報電話會議上承諾的 23 日曆年 30 億美元的成本節約。

We are making tough decisions to right-size the organization and we further sharpened our business focus within our BUs by rationalizing product road maps and investments.

我們正在做出艱難的決定來調整組織規模，並通過合理化產品路線圖和投資進一步加強我們業務部門的業務重點。

NEX continues to do well and is a core part of our strategic transformation, but we will end future investments in our network switching product line, while still fully supporting existing products and customers. Since my return, we have exited 7 businesses, providing in excess of $1.5 billion in savings.

NEX 繼續表現良好，是我們戰略轉型的核心部分，但我們將結束對網絡交換產品線的未來投資，同時仍全面支持現有產品和客戶。自從我回來後，我們已經退出了 7 家企業，節省了超過 15 億美元。

We are also well underway to integrating AXG into CCG and DCAI, respectively, to drive a more effective go-to-market capability, accelerating the scale of these businesses while further reducing costs. While it was important to focus on what we are doing to address the current macro uncertainty, it is also important to highlight that despite disappointing financial results, calendar year '22 did see considerable progress towards our transformation. We remain fully committed to executing to our strategy to deliver leadership products anchored on open and secure platforms powered by at-scale manufacturing and supercharged by our people. Success starts with our people and execution follows culture.

我們還在順利地將 AXG 分別整合到 CCG 和 DCAI 中，以推動更有效的上市能力，加速這些業務的規模，同時進一步降低成本。雖然重要的是要關注我們為解決當前宏觀不確定性所做的工作，但同樣重要的是要強調，儘管財務業績令人失望，但 22 日曆年確實在我們的轉型方面取得了相當大的進展。我們仍然完全致力於執行我們的戰略，以提供基於開放和安全平台的領先產品，該平台由大規模製造提供支持並由我們的員工提供支持。成功始於我們的員工，執行力源於文化。

In calendar year '22, we took important strides to rebuild the leadership team, promoting from within and adding fresh perspectives from the outside. This includes the Board of Directors with the addition of Lip-Bu Tan and Barbara Novick, both of whom have already made significant contributions and the appointment of Frank Yeary as Chair.

在 22 年日曆年，我們在重建領導團隊方面邁出了重要的一步，從內部提拔並從外部引入新的觀點。這包括董事會成員 Lip-Bu Tan 和 Barbara Novick，他們都已經做出了重大貢獻，並任命 Frank Yeary 為主席。

In addition, a year ago, we reestablished OKRs to drive accountability and transparency across the organization, and we reintroduced Tick-Tock 2 to establish a rigorous methodology of design and product development. Both are key spark plugs to our execution engine.

此外，一年前，我們重新制定了 OKR 以推動整個組織的問責制和透明度，我們重新引入了 Tick-Tock 2 以建立嚴格的設計和產品開發方法。兩者都是我們執行引擎的關鍵火花塞。

Rebuilding the culture has begun to show benefits in manufacturing and design. Our progress against our TD road map continue to improve throughout calendar year '22, and every quarter, our confidence grows. We are at/or ahead of our goal of 5 nodes in 4 years. Intel 7 is now in high-volume manufacturing for both client and server. On Intel 4, we are ready today for manufacturing, and we look forward to the Meteor Lake ramp in second half of the year.

重建文化已經開始在製造和設計方面顯示出好處。在整個 22 日曆年中，我們在 TD 路線圖方面的進展繼續改善，而且每個季度，我們的信心都在增長。我們正處於/或領先於 4 年內 5 個節點的目標。 Intel 7 現在正在為客戶端和服務器進行大批量生產。在 Intel 4 上，我們今天已經準備好製造，我們期待下半年的 Meteor Lake 爬坡。

Intel 3 continues to show great health and is on track. Intel 4 and 3 are our first modes deploying EUV, and will represent a major step forward in terms of transistor performance per watt and density.

英特爾 3 繼續表現出良好的健康狀況，併步入正軌。 Intel 4 和 3 是我們部署 EUV 的首批模式，將在晶體管每瓦性能和密度方面邁出重要一步。

On Intel 20A and Intel 18A, the first nodes to benefit from RibbonFETs and PowerVia, internal test chips and those of a major potential foundry customer have taped out with the silicon running in the fab. We continue to be on track to regain transistor performance and power performance leadership by 2025.

在 Intel 20A 和 Intel 18A 上，第一批受益於 RibbonFET 和 PowerVia 的節點、內部測試芯片和主要潛在代工客戶的芯片已經在晶圓廠中運行矽流片。到 2025 年，我們將繼續走上奪回晶體管性能和功率性能領先地位的軌道。

Progress in TD continues to be validated by our IFS pipeline. I am happy that we were able to add a leading cloud edge and data center solutions provider as a leading edge customer for Intel 3. Including prior customers, such as MediaTek, we now have lifetime deal value of greater than $4 billion for IFS.

我們的 IFS 管道繼續驗證 TD 的進展。我很高興我們能夠將領先的雲邊緣和數據中心解決方案提供商添加為英特爾 3 的領先客戶。包括聯發科等之前的客戶，我們現在對 IFS 的終身交易價值超過 40 億美元。

We also have an active pipeline engagements with 7 out of the 10 largest foundry customers coupled with consistent pipeline growth to include 43 potential customers and ecosystem partner test chips. Additionally, we continue to make progress on Intel18A, and I've already shared the engineering release of PDK 0.5 with our lead customers and expect to have the final production release in the next few weeks.

我們還與 10 大代工廠客戶中的 7 家進行了積極的管道合作，管道持續增長，包括 43 個潛在客戶和生態系統合作夥伴測試芯片。此外，我們在 Intel18A 上繼續取得進展，我已經與我們的主要客戶分享了 PDK 0.5 的工程版本，並期望在接下來的幾週內發布最終產品版本。

In addition, we are working hard to complete the Tower acquisition, which will further amplify our momentum as our foundry business becomes even more compelling to customers.

此外，我們正在努力完成對 Tower 的收購，隨著我們的代工業務對客戶更具吸引力，這將進一步增強我們的勢頭。

On the product front, the PRQ of Sapphire Rapids in Q3 and the formal introduction of our fourth gen Xeon scalable CPU and Xeon CPU MAX series better known to many of you as U.S. Sapphire Rapids and Sapphire Rapids HBM, respectively, on January 10 was a great milestone. It was particularly satisfying to host a customer-centered events, including testimonials from Dell, Google Cloud, HPE, Lenovo, Microsoft Azure and NVIDIA, among many others.

在產品方面，Sapphire Rapids 在第三季度的 PRQ 以及我們的第四代 Xeon 可擴展 CPU 和 Xeon CPU MAX 系列在 1 月 10 日正式推出，你們中的許多人分別稱為美國 Sapphire Rapids 和 Sapphire Rapids HBM偉大的里程碑。舉辦以客戶為中心的活動特別令人滿意，其中包括來自戴爾、谷歌云、HPE、聯想、Microsoft Azure 和 NVIDIA 等的推薦。

We are thrilled to be ramping production to meet a strong backlog of demand, and we are on track to ship 1 million units by midyear. In addition, as part of AXG moves into DCAI, it is noteworthy that our Intel Flex series, optimized for and showing clear leadership in media stream density and visual quality, is now shifting initial deployments with large CSPs and MNCs, enabling large-scale cloud gaming and media delivery deployments.

我們很高興能夠提高產量以滿足大量積壓的需求，我們有望在年中出貨 100 萬台。此外，隨著 AXG 的一部分進入 DCAI，值得注意的是，我們的 Intel Flex 系列針對媒體流密度和視覺質量進行了優化並顯示出明顯的領先地位，現在正在轉向大型 CSP 和 MNC 的初始部署，從而實現大規模雲遊戲和媒體交付部署。

Our DCAI road map only improves from here and will ramp into sampling and has completed power on with top OEM and CSP customers, and it remains on track to launch in the second half of 2023. Granite Rapids, our next performance core addition to the Xeon portfolio, is on track to launch in 2024, running multiple operating systems across many different configurations.

我們的 DCAI 路線圖僅在此基礎上有所改進，將逐步進入採樣階段，並已與頂級 OEM 和 CSP 客戶完成啟動，並有望在 2023 年下半年推出。Granite Rapids，我們對 Xeon 的下一個性能核心產品組合，有望在 2024 年推出，在許多不同的配置中運行多個操作系統。

Further, our first efficient core product, CR4, is also on track for 2024. Lastly, it is appropriate to continue to highlight PSG for its standout performance delivering record Q4 revenue up 42% year-on-year. We are planning to have a more fulsome look at our progress in DCAI at our next investor webinar later in Q1. Stay tuned for the invitation.

此外，我們的第一個高效核心產品 CR4 也有望在 2024 年上市。最後，繼續強調 PSG 的出色表現是恰當的，第四季度收入同比增長 42%，創下歷史新高。我們計劃在第一季度晚些時候的下一次投資者網絡研討會上更全面地了解我們在 DCAI 方面的進展。請繼續關注邀請。

In CCG, we continue to build on our market share momentum across the PC stack by focusing on delivering leadership products with our broad, open ecosystem. I'm particularly pleased that our clear performance leadership at the high end drove record client ASPs in the quarter. In Q4, the 13th Gen Intel Core desktop processor family, codename, Raptor Lake, became available, starting with the desktop K processors and the Intel Z 790 chipset.

在 CCG 中，我們通過專注於通過我們廣泛、開放的生態系統提供領先產品，繼續鞏固我們在整個 PC 堆棧的市場份額勢頭。我特別高興的是，我們在高端的明確績效領導力推動了本季度創紀錄的客戶 ASP。第 4 季度，代號為 Raptor Lake 的第 13 代英特爾酷睿台式機處理器系列上市，首先是台式機 K 處理器和英特爾 Z 790 芯片組。

In partnership with ASUS, we officially set a new world record for overclocking, pushing the 13th Gen Intel Core past the 9 gigahertz barrier for the first time ever. Hands down, we provide desktop enthusiasts and gamers with the best processors and features for overclocking in the PC industry.

我們與華碩合作，正式創造了新的超頻世界紀錄，推動第 13 代英特爾酷睿首次突破 9 GHz 大關。毫無疑問，我們為台式機愛好者和遊戲玩家提供了 PC 行業中用於超頻的最佳處理器和功能。

We also introduced our notebook Raptor Lake family at CES, including the world's fastest notebook CPU and the first 24 cores. We look forward to ramping the more than 300 mobile design wins we have already secured in the first half of '23.

我們還在 CES 上推出了我們的筆記本電腦 Raptor Lake 系列，包括世界上最快的筆記本電腦 CPU 和首批 24 核。我們期待在 2023 年上半年取得的 300 多項移動設計勝利中取得成功。

Meteor Lake, our first disaggregated CPU built on Intel 4, remains on track for the second half of the year. And with Meteor Lake progressing well, it's now appropriate to look forward to Lunar Lake, which is on track for production readiness in 2024, having taped out its first silicon. Lunar Lake is optimized for ultra-low power performance, which will enable more of our PC partners to create ultrathin and light systems for mobile users. In addition, as we outlined on our webinar, we are excited by the strength of the Evo brand. The introduction of Unison for leadership multi-device experience as we ramp the more than 60 design wins and the uniqueness of vPro in the enterprise market, helping our customers drive an almost 200% return on investment by deploying vPro platforms to their end users.

Meteor Lake 是我們第一個基於 Intel 4 構建的分解式 CPU，下半年仍保持正常運行。隨著 Meteor Lake 的進展順利，現在可以期待 Lunar Lake，它有望在 2024 年投入生產，並流出第一塊矽片。 Lunar Lake 針對超低功耗性能進行了優化，這將使我們更多的 PC 合作夥伴能夠為移動用戶打造超輕薄系統。此外，正如我們在網絡研討會上概述的那樣，我們對 Evo 品牌的實力感到興奮。隨著我們贏得 60 多項設計勝利和 vPro 在企業市場的獨特性，引入 Unison 以獲得領先的多設備體驗，幫助我們的客戶通過向其最終用戶部署 vPro 平台來推動近 200% 的投資回報。

Lastly, as consumer graphics reintegrate into CCG, enthusiasm for our latest Alchemist-based discrete graphics products continue to build and we expect volume ramp throughout the year.

最後，隨著消費類顯卡重新融入 CCG，人們對我們最新的基於 Alchemist 的獨立顯卡產品的熱情繼續高漲，我們預計全年銷量都會增加。

Turning to NEX and Mobileye. Both businesses have performed well in Q4 and calendar year '22, partially insulated by some of the market forces impacting PCs and server, any exit key product milestones with Mount Evans, Raptor Lake P&S, and Alder Lake and Sapphire Rapids to drive a second consecutive year of double-digit year-on-year growth in calendar year '22. We expect market share gains and outperformance to continue in '23.

轉向 NEX 和 Mobileye。兩家公司在第四季度和 22 年的日曆年都表現良好，部分受到影響 PC 和服務器的一些市場力量的影響，埃文斯山、Raptor Lake P&S、Alder Lake 和 Sapphire Rapids 的任何退出關鍵產品里程碑連續第二次推動'22 日曆年實現兩位數同比增長的一年。我們預計 23 年市場份額的增長和優異表現將繼續。

Mobileye increased revenue by almost 60% year-on-year in Q4 and is on a solid growth path for calendar year '23. Calendar year '22 design wins, including SuperVision, are projected to generate future revenue of approximately $6.7 billion across 64 million units.

Mobileye 在第四季度的收入同比增長近 60%，並且在 23 年的日曆年中處於穩健的增長軌道。包括 SuperVision 在內的日曆年 '22 設計獲勝預計將在 6400 萬個單位中產生約 67 億美元的未來收入。

In addition, our manufacturing organization performed well throughout calendar year '22. Starting the year navigating the worst supply-constrained environment in over 20 years, only to have to pivot in Q2 to respond to rapidly changing demand signals, which are now driving near-term underloading in our factory network. More importantly, we continue to push forward with the next phase of IDM 2.0, creating an internal foundry evolving our systems business practices and culture to establish a leadership cost structure. This new approach is already gaining momentum internally.

此外，我們的製造組織在整個日曆年 '22 中表現良好。從今年開始，我們在 20 多年來最嚴重的供應受限環境中航行，只需要在第二季度調整以響應快速變化的需求信號，這些信號現在正在推動我們工廠網絡的近期負荷不足。更重要的是，我們繼續推進 IDM 2.0 的下一階段，創建一個內部鑄造廠，不斷發展我們的系統業務實踐和文化，以建立領先的成本結構。這種新方法已經在內部獲得動力。

As a reminder, the internal foundry model will place our BUs in a similar economic footing as external IFS customers and will allow our manufacturing group and BUs to be more agile, make better decisions and uncover efficiency and cost savings. We have identified 9 different subcategories for operational improvement that our teams will aggressively pursue.

提醒一下，內部代工模型將使我們的 BU 處於與外部 IFS 客戶類似的經濟地位，並將使我們的製造團隊和 BU 更加敏捷，做出更好的決策並發現效率和成本節約。我們已經確定了 9 個不同的運營改進子類別，我們的團隊將積極追求這些子類別。

In addition to establishing better incentives, this new approach will provide transparency on our financial execution, allowing us to better benchmark ourselves against other foundries and drive to best-in-class performance.

除了建立更好的激勵機制外，這種新方法還將為我們的財務執行提供透明度，使我們能夠更好地與其他鑄造廠進行比較，並推動實現一流的績效。

We'll also provide improved transparency to our owners as we expect to share full internal foundry P&L in calendar year '24. Ultimately, allowing you to better judge how we are allocating your capital and creating value.

我們還將為我們的所有者提供更高的透明度，因為我們希望在 24 日曆年共享完整的內部鑄造廠損益表。最終，讓您更好地判斷我們如何分配您的資本和創造價值。

We expect additional efficiencies as we implement our internal foundry model, which is a key element to accomplish our $8 billion to $10 billion of cost savings exiting 2025, as we outlined on our last call.

正如我們在上次電話會議中概述的那樣，我們希望在實施內部代工模型時提高效率，這是到 2025 年實現 80 億至 100 億美元成本節約的關鍵因素。

I want to remind everyone that we are on a multiyear journey. We remain focused on the things that are within our control as we navigate short-term headwinds while executing to our long-term strategy. While I remain sober that we have a long way to achieve our financial expectations, I am pleased with the transformation progress that we are making.

我想提醒大家，我們正在進行多年的旅程。在我們執行長期戰略的同時應對短期逆風時，我們仍然專注於我們控制範圍內的事情。雖然我仍然清醒地認識到我們要實現財務預期還有很長的路要走，但我對我們正在取得的轉型進展感到高興。

I can tell you, in addition to obviously focusing on the day-to-day running of the company, we continue to examine numerous additional value-creating initiatives for 2023 as we always do. We will update you as we move along on any we deem appropriate.

我可以告訴你，除了明顯關注公司的日常運營外，我們還將一如既往地繼續研究 2023 年的許多額外價值創造計劃。我們會在我們認為合適的任何事情上進行更新。

Rest assured, we remain committed to creating value for our owners and to delivering the long-term strategic road map we laid out at the beginning of this journey, and we are confident in our ability to do so. We will: one, deliver on 5 nodes in 4 years, achieving process performance parity in 2024 and unquestioned leadership by 2025 with Intel 18A; two, execute on an aggressive Sapphire Rapids ramp, introduced Emerald Rapids in second half '23 and Granite Rapids and CR4s in 2024; three, ramp Meteor Lake in second half '23 and PRQ Lunar Lake in 2024; and four, expand our IFS customer base to include large design wins on Intel 16, Intel 3 and 18A this year.

請放心，我們仍然致力於為我們的所有者創造價值，並實現我們在這一旅程開始時制定的長期戰略路線圖，我們對我們有能力做到這一點充滿信心。我們將：一，在 4 年內交付 5 個節點，在 2024 年實現工藝性能對等，到 2025 年與英特爾 18A 實現無可置疑的領先地位；第二，在積極的 Sapphire Rapids 斜坡上執行，在 23 年下半年推出 Emerald Rapids，在 2024 年推出 Granite Rapids 和 CR4；三，23 年下半年斜坡流星湖和 2024 年 PRQ 月球湖；第四，擴大我們的 IFS 客戶群，包括今年在 Intel 16、Intel 3 和 18A 上的大型設計勝利。

We also need to improve our cost structure and drive operational efficiency. On this front, we will: one, return to profitability and deliver the benefits of our calendar year '23, '24 and '25 efforts to reduce costs and drive efficiencies; two, execute on our internal foundry P&L by 2024; and three, expand on the use of our smart capital strategy to leverage multiple pools of capital, including SCIPs and chips in the U.S. and Europe to balance our long-term capacity aspirations with near-term realities.

我們還需要改善成本結構並提高運營效率。在這方面，我們將：第一，恢復盈利並實現我們日曆年 '23、'24 和 '25 降低成本和提高效率的努力帶來的好處；第二，到 2024 年執行我們的內部代工廠損益表；第三，擴大我們的智能資本戰略的使用，以利用多個資本池，包括美國和歐洲的 SCIPs 和芯片，以平衡我們的長期產能願景與近期現實。

Before I turn it over to Dave, I'm going to close by saying we take our commitments to all our stakeholders extremely seriously and, ultimately, we strive to create value for each of them. For our customers, it is rebuilding our execution engine to provide a predictable cadence of best-in-class products to support their ambitions.

在我把它交給戴夫之前，我要結束時說我們非常認真地對待我們對所有利益相關者的承諾，最終，我們努力為他們每個人創造價值。對於我們的客戶，它正在重建我們的執行引擎，以提供一流產品的可預測節奏來支持他們的雄心壯志。

For our employees, it is to provide them with the opportunity to develop and bring to market world-changing technologies. It is what inspires each of us inside of the company.

對於我們的員工，這是為他們提供機會來開發改變世界的技術並將其推向市場。它激勵著公司內部的每一個人。

For our external owners, it is to make thoughtful, deliberate decisions around capital allocation, which drives the highest return on investment we make with your capital. Our ambitions are equaled by our passion, and our efforts across manufacturing, design, products and foundry are well on their way to driving our transformation and creating the flywheel, which is IBM 2.0.

對於我們的外部所有者，這是圍繞資本分配做出周到、深思熟慮的決定，這推動了我們用您的資本進行的最高投資回報。我們的熱情與我們的抱負相得益彰，我們在製造、設計、產品和代工方面的努力正在推動我們的轉型和創造飛輪，這就是 IBM 2.0。

Thank you, Pat, and good afternoon, everyone. We saw solid business execution in the fourth quarter despite persistent macroeconomic headwinds impacting the semiconductor industry. As Pat indicated, we expect challenging macro conditions to continue through at least the first half of the year.

謝謝帕特，大家下午好。儘管持續的宏觀經濟逆風影響著半導體行業，但我們在第四季度看到了穩健的業務執行。正如 Pat 所指出的，我們預計具有挑戰性的宏觀環境至少會持續到今年上半年。

As outlined last quarter, we'll continue to prioritize investments critical to our transformation, prudently and aggressively managed expenses near term and drive fundamental improvements in our cost structure longer term. We're executing well towards our $3 billion target in 2023 and $8 billion to $10 billion exiting '25.

正如上個季度所述，我們將繼續優先考慮對我們的轉型至關重要的投資，在短期內審慎積極地管理費用，並在長期內推動成本結構的根本改善。我們在 2023 年實現了 30 億美元的目標，並在 25 年後實現了 80 億至 100 億美元的目標。

Fourth quarter revenue was $14 billion, landing at the low end of our range and down 8% sequentially. Revenue from DCAI and NEX were in line with expectations, while CCG was impacted by softening demand for PCs. Gross margin for the quarter was 44%, slightly better than we had expected for the low end of our revenue range.

第四季度收入為 140 億美元，處於我們範圍的低端，環比下降 8%。 DCAI 和 NEX 的收入符合預期，而 CCG 則受到 PC 需求疲軟的影響。本季度的毛利率為 44%，略好於我們對收入範圍低端的預期。

Q4 gross margins were impacted 220 basis points from factory underload charges offsetting a sequential 170 basis point benefit from an insurance settlement. EPS for the quarter was $0.10. $0.10 below our guide on lower revenue and increased inventory reserves.

第 4 季度毛利率受到工廠欠載費用影響 220 個基點，抵消了保險結算帶來的連續 170 個基點收益。本季度每股收益為 0.10 美元。比我們關於收入減少和庫存儲備增加的指南低 0.10 美元。

Operating cash flow for the quarter was $7.7 billion. Net CapEx was $4.6 billion, resulting in an adjusted free cash flow of $3.1 billion and we paid dividends of $1.5 billion. We finished FY '22 with revenue of $63.1 billion, gross margin of 47.3% and EPS of $1.84. We generated $15.4 billion of cash from operations and an adjusted free cash flow of approximately negative $4 billion at the low end of the range we provided last quarter, despite approximately $3 billion of capital incentives that shifted from Q4 into 2023.

本季度的運營現金流為 77 億美元。淨資本支出為 46 億美元，調整後的自由現金流為 31 億美元，我們支付了 15 億美元的股息。我們以 631 億美元的收入、47.3% 的毛利率和 1.84 美元的每股收益結束了 22 財年。儘管大約 30 億美元的資本激勵從第四季度轉移到 2023 年，但我們從運營中產生了 154 億美元的現金，調整後的自由現金流量約為負 40 億美元，處於我們上個季度提供的範圍的低端。

When we spoke at Investor Day last February, we forecasted revenue of $76 billion and adjusted free cash flow of negative $1 billion to $2 billion for FY '22. As macroeconomic conditions deteriorated at a rapid pace in second half of '22, we committed to optimizing the areas of the business within our control.

當我們去年 2 月在投資者日發表講話時，我們預測 22 財年的收入為 760 億美元，並將自由現金流調整為負 10 億美元至 20 億美元。隨著宏觀經濟狀況在 22 年下半年迅速惡化，我們致力於優化我們控制範圍內的業務領域。

Through reductions in spending and significant working capital improvements, we offset a $13 billion reduction to revenue expectations to come within $2 billion of our initial adjusted free cash flow guide, while still making the needed capital investments in support of our IDM 2.0 strategy, and to position ourselves for long-term growth in a market expected to reach $1 trillion by 2030.

通過減少支出和顯著改善營運資本，我們抵消了 130 億美元的收入預期減少，使其在我們最初調整後的自由現金流指南的 20 億美元以內，同時仍在進行必要的資本投資以支持我們的 IDM 2.0 戰略，並為在 2030 年預計達到 1 萬億美元的市場中實現長期增長做好準備。

Our balance sheet remains strong with cash and investment balances of more than $28 billion, modest leverage and a strong investment-grade profile.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，現金和投資餘額超過 280 億美元，槓桿率適中，投資級別高。

Moving to fourth quarter business unit results. CCG revenue was $6.6 billion, a decline of 36% year-over-year as PC TAM deteriorated faster than expected due to macroeconomic headwinds. Customer inventory remains elevated beyond our previous expectations and will continue to burn into the first half of '23.

轉到第四季度業務部門的結果。 CCG 收入為 66 億美元，同比下降 36%，這是由於宏觀經濟逆風導致 PC TAM 惡化速度快於預期。客戶庫存仍然高於我們之前的預期，並將繼續燃燒到 23 年上半年。

CCG realized record CPU ASPs, up 11% year-over-year as we continue to see relative strength in our premium segments driven by leadership performance and attractive features of our Evo and vPro platforms. Q4 operating profit was $0.7 billion, down year-over-year on lower revenue and increased Intel 7 product mix.

CCG 實現了創紀錄的 CPU 平均售價，同比增長 11%，因為我們繼續看到我們的高端細分市場的相對優勢受到 Evo 和 vPro 平台的領導性能和有吸引力的功能的推動。第四季度營業利潤為 7 億美元，同比下降，原因是收入下降和英特爾 7 產品組合增加。

DCAI revenue was $4.3 billion in Q4, up 2% sequentially with higher ASPs offsetting demand softness and down 33% year-over-year driven by TAM contraction and competitive pressure. DCAI operating profit for the fourth quarter was $371 million.

第四季度 DCAI 收入為 43 億美元，環比增長 2%，平均銷售價格上漲抵消了需求疲軟的影響，在 TAM 收縮和競爭壓力的推動下同比下降 33%。第四季度 DCAI 營業利潤為 3.71 億美元。

While still unsatisfactory, profit was up more than $350 million sequentially on reduced factory costs. Operating profit was down substantially year-over-year, impacted by lower revenue, increased advanced node start-up costs and higher product costs.

儘管仍不盡如人意，但由於工廠成本降低，利潤環比增長超過 3.5 億美元。受收入下降、高級節點啟動成本增加和產品成本上升的影響，營業利潤同比大幅下降。

Within DCAI, PSG achieved record Q4 revenue, up 42% year-over-year, along with record full year revenue, up 29% year-over-year through increased ASPs, improved external supply and strength in the infrastructure segment. PSG enters 2023 with still significant unfulfilled backlog.

在 DCAI 中，PSG 實現了創紀錄的第四季度收入，同比增長 42%，以及創紀錄的全年收入，通過增加平均售價、改善外部供應和基礎設施領域的實力，同比增長 29%。進入 2023 年，PSG 仍有大量未完成的積壓訂單。

NEX quarterly revenue was $2.1 billion, down 1% year-over-year as declining global GDP impacted the Edge business, offsetting growth in Xeon network CPUs and the ramp of our Mount Evans infrastructure processing unit.

NEX 季度收入為 21 億美元，同比下降 1%，原因是全球 GDP 下降影響了邊緣業務，抵消了至強網絡 CPU 的增長和我們埃文斯山基礎設施處理單元的增長。

Despite second half macro headwinds, NEX set another full year record revenue at $8.9 billion up 11% year-over-year and marking consecutive years of double-digit revenue growth. Operating profit was $58 million in the fourth quarter, down year-on-year on mix shift to lower-margin segments and higher factory start-up costs.

儘管下半年遇到宏觀不利因素，NEX 的全年收入仍創下新高，達到 89 億美元，同比增長 11%，連續多年實現兩位數的收入增長。第四季度營業利潤為 5800 萬美元，同比下降，原因是產品組合轉向利潤率較低的細分市場以及工廠啟動成本較高。

AXG achieved record quarterly revenue of $247 million, up 34% sequentially and up 1 point year-over-year, supported by the launch of Sapphire Rapids HBM. Operating loss was $441 million, down $63 million sequentially, with inventory valuations negatively impacted by softer demand, especially for crypto processors.

在推出 Sapphire Rapids HBM 的支持下，AXG 實現創紀錄的季度收入 2.47 億美元，環比增長 34%，同比增長 1 個百分點。營業虧損為 4.41 億美元，環比下降 6300 萬美元，庫存估值受到需求疲軟的負面影響，尤其是對加密處理器而言。

Mobileye delivered another record revenue quarter of $565 million, up 26% sequentially and growth of more than $200 million and 59% year-over-year. Full year revenue of $1.9 billion was also a record for Mobileye, growing 35% year-over-year.

Mobileye 的季度收入再創新高，達到 5.65 億美元，環比增長 26%，同比增長超過 2 億美元和 59%。 19 億美元的全年收入也創下了 Mobileye 的紀錄，同比增長 35%。

Fourth quarter operating income of $210 million represents 71% growth year-over-year. IFS achieved record quarterly revenue of $319 million, up 87% sequentially and 30% year-over-year on increased automotive shipments. Operating loss was $31 million, a $72 million improvement sequentially on higher revenue.

第四季度營業收入為 2.1 億美元，同比增長 71%。由於汽車出貨量的增加，IFS 實現了創紀錄的季度收入 3.19 億美元，環比增長 87%，同比增長 30%。營業虧損為 3100 萬美元，由於收入增加，環比減少 7200 萬美元。

We continue to reshape the company to drive to world-class product costs and operational efficiency. We remain committed to the $3 billion of '23 cost savings outlined on our Q3 earnings call, while mindfully protecting the investments needed to accelerate our transformation and ensure we are well positioned for long-term market growth.

我們繼續重塑公司，以推動世界一流的產品成本和運營效率。我們仍然致力於在第三季度財報電話會議上概述的 23 年 30 億美元成本節約，同時謹慎保護加速轉型所需的投資，並確保我們為長期市場增長做好準備。

Before turning to Q1 guidance, let me take a moment to discuss an accounting change that will impact our results beginning in the first quarter. Effective January 23, we increased the estimated useful life of certain production machinery and equipment from 5 years to 8 years. This change better reflects the demonstrated economic value of our machinery and equipment over time and is more aligned with the business model changes inherent to our IDM 2.0 strategy.

在轉向第一季度的指導之前，讓我花點時間討論一下會計變更，該變更將影響我們從第一季度開始的業績。自 1 月 23 日起，我們將某些生產機械和設備的估計使用壽命從 5 年增加到 8 年。這一變化更好地反映了我們的機器和設備隨著時間的推移所展示的經濟價值，並且更符合我們 IDM 2.0 戰略固有的商業模式變化。

The growth of the IFS deal pipeline will extend the life of manufacturing nodes beyond what was practical within IDM 1.0. Disaggregated CPU architecture allows performance and cost optimization for each chiplet, better leveraging older nodes. And we are optimizing our core business around more sustainable capacity quarters to improve equipment utilization and maximize ROIC.

IFS 交易管道的增長將延長製造節點的壽命，超出 IDM 1.0 中的實際範圍。分解的 CPU 架構允許每個小芯片的性能和成本優化，更好地利用舊節點。我們正在圍繞更具可持續性的產能季度優化我們的核心業務，以提高設備利用率並最大化 ROIC。

The change will be applied prospectively beginning Q1 '23. When compared to the estimated useful life in place as of the end of '22, we expect total depreciation expense in '23 to reduce by roughly $4.2 billion. An approximate $2.6 billion increase to gross profit, a $400 million decrease in R&D expense and a $1.2 billion decrease in ending inventory values. This change will not be counted towards the $3 billion short-term or $8 billion to $10 billion long-term structural cost improvements we committed last quarter, and is intended to provide the most accurate reflection of company financial results to our owners.

該更改將從 23 年第一季度開始應用。與截至 22 年底的估計使用壽命相比，我們預計 23 年的總折舊費用將減少約 42 億美元。毛利潤增加約 26 億美元，研發費用減少 4 億美元，期末存貨價值減少 12 億美元。這一變化將不計入我們上個季度承諾的 30 億美元短期或 80 億至 100 億美元的長期結構性成本改進，旨在向我們的所有者提供最準確的公司財務業績反映。

Now turning to guidance. For Q1, we expect first quarter revenue of $10.5 billion to $11.5 billion. In addition to continued macro headwinds, we expect customers will burn inventory at a meaningfully faster pace than the prior few quarters in response to macro TAM softness impacting CCG, DCAI, NEX lines of business.

現在轉向指導。對於第一季度，我們預計第一季度收入為 105 億美元至 115 億美元。除了持續的宏觀逆風外，我們預計客戶將以比前幾個季度更快的速度燃燒庫存，以應對影響 CCG、DCAI、NEX 業務線的宏觀 TAM 疲軟。

We see potential for market conditions to improve faster than typical seasonality as third-party data shows macro headwinds easing in the second half of the year. While we're progressing toward a $3 billion spending reduction with significant austerity across the company, given the fixed cost nature of our business, we expect the sequential revenue decline will result in negative operating margin in the first quarter.

我們認為，由於第三方數據顯示下半年宏觀逆風有所緩和，市場狀況的改善速度可能快於典型的季節性。考慮到我們業務的固定成本性質，雖然我們正朝著削減 30 億美元的支出邁進，並在整個公司實施重大緊縮政策，但我們預計收入連續下降將導致第一季度的營業利潤率為負。

We're forecasting gross margin of 39%, a tax rate of 13% and EPS of negative $0.15 at the midpoint of revenue guidance, inclusive of $350 million to $500 million of operating margin benefit from the useful life accounting change, split approximately 75% to cost of sales and 25% to OpEx. Factory underload charges are projected to impact Q1 gross margin by 400 basis points.

我們預測毛利率為 39%，稅率為 13%，每股收益為負 0.15 美元（按收入指引的中點計算），其中包括使用壽命會計變更帶來的 3.5 億至 5 億美元的營業利潤率收益，分成約 75%銷售成本和 25% 的運營支出。工廠欠載費用預計將影響第一季度毛利率 400 個基點。

We continue to evaluate all investments and will remain laser-focused on optimizing for ROI, adjusting for market conditions across operating expenses and capital assets.

我們將繼續評估所有投資，並將繼續專注於優化投資回報率，調整運營支出和資本資產的市場狀況。

While we're not providing guidance beyond Q1, I'll touch on a few elements of our outlook. At Investor Day, we noted that during the investment phase of IDM 2.0, from 2022 through 2024, our model was to operate at approximately 35% net capital intensity.

雖然我們不會提供第一季度之後的指導，但我將談談我們展望的幾個要素。在投資者日，我們指出，在 IDM 2.0 的投資階段，從 2022 年到 2024 年，我們的模型將以大約 35% 的淨資本密集度運營。

For FY '23, despite the lower revenue level, we expect to be at or below the 35% model. Embedded in our assumptions are capital offsets of around 20% to 30% of growth CapEx including our innovative SCIP partnership with Brookfield. We expect FY '23 operating expenses of under $20 billion, a roughly 10% year-over-year decline, consistent with committed cost-cutting measures totaling $2 billion, adjusting for the depreciation change.

對於 23 財年，儘管收入水平較低，但我們預計將達到或低於 35% 的模型。我們的假設中包含約 20% 至 30% 的增長資本支出的資本抵消，包括我們與 Brookfield 的創新 SCIP 合作夥伴關係。我們預計 23 財年的運營支出將低於 200 億美元，同比下降約 10%，這與承諾的總計 20 億美元的成本削減措施一致，並針對折舊變化進行了調整。

Adjusted free cash flow will be below our Investor Day guide of approximately neutral in the first half of '23 and return back towards guardrails in second half '23.

調整後的自由現金流將低於我們在 23 年上半年大致中性的投資者日指南，並在 23 年下半年回歸護欄。

In closing, we remain committed to the strategy and long-term financial model we laid out at Investor Day last year. The opportunity for strong revenue growth across our business unit portfolio and free cash flow at 20% of revenue remains. While we're not satisfied with near-term results, this market downturn represents an opportunity to accelerate the transformation necessary to achieve our long-term goals. I look forward to providing updates on our transformation journey as the year progresses.

最後，我們仍然致力於我們在去年投資者日制定的戰略和長期財務模式。我們業務部門組合的收入強勁增長和自由現金流佔收入的 20% 的機會仍然存在。雖然我們對近期結果不滿意，但這次市場低迷代表了一個機會，可以加快實現我們長期目標所需的轉型。隨著時間的推移，我期待著提供有關我們轉型之旅的最新信息。

With that, let me turn the call back over to John.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Dave. We will now move into the Q&A portion of our call. (Operator Instructions) With that, Jonathan, can we please take the first caller.

謝謝你，戴夫。我們現在將進入電話會議的問答部分。 （操作員說明）這樣，喬納森，我們可以接聽第一個來電者嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ross Seymore。

Let me ask a question. I guess Dave, to hit on some of the revenue questions or items you just said, do you expect the first quarter to be the bottom in absolute dollars through the year? And any color between the segments? It seems like it's exceedingly a CCG problem right now in the quarter. Or is it broader than that?

讓我問一個問題。我想戴夫，要解決你剛才說的一些收入問題或項目，你是否預計第一季度的絕對美元將是全年的最低點？段之間有任何顏色嗎？在本季度，這似乎是一個非常嚴重的 CCG 問題。或者比這更廣泛？

Yes. So you want to go first? Okay. So let me -- I'll start, and Pat is going to add some color. So on the $11 billion, we're expecting most of the business units to be down sequentially, double digits. We're not going to provide guidance for the rest of the year. But I did say that the first half is likely to be seeing these inventory corrections.

是的。所以你想先走？好的。那麼讓我——我將開始，Pat 將添加一些顏色。因此，在 110 億美元中，我們預計大多數業務部門將連續下降，兩位數。我們不會為今年剩餘時間提供指導。但我確實說過，上半年可能會出現這些庫存調整。

The other thing I would just add, is maybe color to kind of position the year, is that we're expecting Q1 to be the most significant inventory decline at our customers that we've seen in recent history. So it's -- if you look back over the last 4 or 5 quarters of reduction, this will be meaningfully higher than all of those quarters. So obviously, that is impacting the Q1 outlook.

我要補充的另一件事，可能是今年頭寸的顏色，我們預計第一季度將是我們最近歷史上看到的客戶庫存下降幅度最大的一次。所以它 - 如果你回顧過去 4 或 5 個季度的減少，這將比所有這些季度都高得多。很明顯，這正在影響第一季度的前景。

Yes. And clearly, as we look at Q1, affected by macro significant inventory adjustments, and that's affecting clearly clients but also data center as well. And we do see that year-on-year, quarter-on-quarter data center to be down as well. And we think that's a macro statement across all segments, across cloud, enterprise, government and uniquely China.

是的。很明顯，當我們看第一季度時，受到宏觀重大庫存調整的影響，這顯然影響了客戶，也影響了數據中心。我們確實看到同比、環比數據中心也出現下降。我們認為這是一個跨所有領域的宏觀聲明，跨雲、企業、政府和中國。

Part of our more positive expectation for the second half of the year is clearly from our customers and what we've heard from them but also we expected some level of recovery from China as well. So overall, clearly, a major inventory correction cycle and coming after back-to-school and how they refresh our customers clearly wanting to take more aggressive steps as they adjust.

我們對今年下半年更積極的期望部分顯然來自我們的客戶和我們從他們那裡聽到的消息，但我們也預計中國也會出現一定程度的複蘇。總的來說，很明顯，這是一個主要的庫存修正週期，在返校之後，以及他們如何刷新我們的客戶，顯然他們希望在調整時採取更積極的步驟。

But that inventory adjustment is well below their sell-out rates. So for that, we do believe that we will see recovery as they have made those inventory adjustments, and we'll see the business be stronger as we go through the year.

但這種庫存調整遠低於他們的售罄率。因此，為此，我們確實相信，隨著他們進行了這些庫存調整，我們將看到復蘇，並且我們將看到業務在這一年中變得更加強大。

Ross, do you have a follow-up?

羅斯，你有後續行動嗎？

I do. Quickly, Dave, I want to pivot to the gross margin side of things, excluding the change in the depreciable life side of the equation, I know revenue is the biggest headwind right now. But you had talked at the Investor Day last year about a 51% to 53% gross margin range and kind of you want to operate within those bands.

我願意。戴夫，快點，我想把重點放在毛利率方面，不包括等式中可折舊壽命方面的變化，我知道收入是目前最大的阻力。但是你在去年的投資者日談到了 51% 到 53% 的毛利率範圍，你想在這些範圍內運營。

What does it take to get back to that? Is there a revenue level? Do you have to be above $17 billion, $18 billion? Are there offsets? Any sort of framework you can give to give investors confidence that -- we never thought we'd see a 3 handle on your gross margin. And so we really want to know what it's going to take to get back to a 5 handle, and if that's significantly changed from the last framework that you provided us.

回到那個需要什麼？有收入水平嗎？你必須超過 170 億美元，180 億美元嗎？有補償嗎？你可以提供任何類型的框架來讓投資者相信——我們從未想過我們會看到你的毛利率達到 3 倍。因此，我們真的很想知道要恢復到 5 句柄需要什麼，以及與您提供給我們的上一個框架相比是否有顯著變化。

Yes, good question. So obviously, revenue is the most significant impact to gross margins. We obviously did not expect to be down at these levels. That said, it's a function of some significant inventory burn. So it's not necessarily a reflection of the demand in the market. So obviously, we would expect that to corroborate at some point, which will be a significant lift to the gross margins.

是的，好問題。很明顯，收入對毛利率的影響最大。我們顯然沒想到會跌至這些水平。也就是說，這是一些重大庫存消耗的結果。所以它不一定反映市場需求。很明顯，我們希望在某個時候證實這一點，這將顯著提高毛利率。

The other thing is, in the first quarter, we're going to have about a 400 basis point impact on our gross margins just from underloading because of the demand softness. And we would expect loadings to improve once we get past the inventory correction we're currently experiencing.

另一件事是，在第一季度，由於需求疲軟，我們將因負載不足而對我們的毛利率產生大約 400 個基點的影響。一旦我們度過了目前正在經歷的庫存調整，我們預計裝載量會有所改善。

In addition to that, we have a number of initiatives underway to improve gross margins, and we're well underway. When you look at the $3 billion reduction that we talked about for '23, $1 billion of that is in cost of sales, and we're well underway on our way to getting that $1 billion.

除此之外，我們還在實施多項舉措來提高毛利率，而且進展順利。當你看看我們在 23 年談到的 30 億美元的削減時，其中 10 億美元是銷售成本，我們正在順利實現這 10 億美元。

And then when you click it further into the $8 billion to $10 billion that we want to hit by the end of 2025, about 66% of that, 2/3 of that is cost of sales improvement. And we're getting a lot of that from our internal foundry model that Pat mentioned. We're already seeing significant opportunities to be efficient, more efficient between our business units and our factories. And I think we'll have a lot of things to say over the course of this year about areas that we see meaningful improvement.

然後當你進一步點擊它進入我們希望到 2025 年底達到的 80 億到 100 億美元時，其中約 66%，其中 2/3 是銷售改進成本。我們從 Pat 提到的內部代工模型中得到了很多。我們已經看到了在我們的業務部門和我們的工廠之間提高效率、提高效率的重要機會。而且我認為在今年的過程中，我們將有很多關於我們看到有意義的改進的領域的事情要說。

Also, we have smart capital that was modest in '22, it's going to be more significant in '23 and much of that smart capital does translate to a better cost structure for us that will help gross margin. So net of that, I feel very confident we will get back to 51% to 53% in the medium term. And in the long term, I feel very confident we will get back to 54% to 58%. And I think Pat said it in the past, we aim to beat that range.

此外，我們擁有 22 年適度的智能資本，在 23 年將變得更加重要，而且大部分智能資本確實為我們轉化為更好的成本結構，這將有助於毛利率。因此，除此之外，我非常有信心我們將在中期恢復到 51% 至 53%。從長遠來看，我非常有信心我們會回到 54% 到 58%。我想帕特過去說過，我們的目標是超越這個範圍。

Thank you, Ross. Jonathan, can we have the next question, please?

謝謝你，羅斯。喬納森，我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

And our next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

I'm curious, how many weeks of DC microprocessor inventory is still in the channel. I'm trying to understand whether the demand assumptions are not what they should be, right? Or is it the supply assumptions? So when you say that the consumption this year will be $270 million, right, which is the low end, how do we know that for sure? What if the consumption rate is much lower than that? So just how many weeks of DC microprocessor inventory is there? And do you think Q1 is that clearing quarter? Or you think even in Q2 you could be shipping below consumption levels?

我很好奇，還有多少週的 DC 微處理器庫存還在渠道中。我試圖了解需求假設是否不是他們應該的，對嗎？還是供應假設？所以當你說今年的消費是 2.7 億美元，對吧，這是低端，我們怎麼知道呢？如果消費率遠低於此怎麼辦？那麼 DC 微處理器庫存有多少週？你認為 Q1 是清算季度嗎？或者您認為即使在第二季度，您的出貨量也可能低於消費水平？

So overall, as we said, we saw the range 270 million, 295 million. We believe the sell-through rate will be to the lower end of that. The consumption that we saw in Q4 was well below that and the consumption rate or the sell-in rate in Q1 is even more significantly almost 2x more significant below the consumption rate. Obviously, these are the macro effects that we can't predict, and that's what's taken us a bit more to the low end of the range. But clearly, as we've been working with our customers and channel partners, we've been monitoring very carefully the sellout that they've seen. So we're pretty comfortable with that range.

所以總體而言，正如我們所說，我們看到了 2.7 億、2.95 億的範圍。我們認為銷售率將低於該水平。我們在第四季度看到的消費遠低於此，而第一季度的消費率或銷售率甚至比消費率低 2 倍。顯然，這些是我們無法預測的宏觀影響，正是這些影響使我們更接近範圍的低端。但顯然，由於我們一直在與我們的客戶和渠道合作夥伴合作，我們一直在非常仔細地監控他們所看到的銷售情況。所以我們對這個範圍很滿意。

Also, we would point to China and a very unique circumstance there, as is well known. And we do expect that there'll be some level of economic recovery there, particularly we forecasted in the second half of the year. And this is a topic that we continue to work closely with our customers.

此外，我們要指出中國和那裡非常獨特的情況，這是眾所周知的。我們確實預計那裡會有一定程度的經濟復甦，尤其是我們預測的下半年。這是我們繼續與客戶密切合作的主題。

That said, overall, and as we updated on our PC webinar, we do expect that the long-term market is in the 300 million unit range. So as we overcome this inventory adjustment cycle, and some of this near-term economic. And I think as you heard from Microsoft, PC usage is up, the number of hours per PC continues to be up. The installed base has gone up. So all of those factors give us reasonable confidence that post this period of inventory correction that will have a very healthy 300 million unit plus or minus market that we're selling into.

也就是說，總體而言，正如我們在 PC 網絡研討會上更新的那樣，我們確實預計長期市場在 3 億台左右。因此，隨著我們克服這個庫存調整週期，以及一些近期經濟。我想正如你從微軟那裡聽到的那樣，PC 使用率上升了，每台 PC 的小時數繼續上升。安裝基礎已經上升。因此，所有這些因素都讓我們有理由相信，在這段庫存修正期過後，我們將擁有一個非常健康的 3 億單位正負市場。

Vivek, do you have a follow-up question?

Vivek，你有後續問題嗎？

Yes. Second question is on the data center. Historically, the semiconductor market likes incumbency, and there is only a share shift if and when the incumbent messes up. And right now, your competitor seems to be becoming a larger incumbent in a lot of cloud deployments, doesn't seem to be messing up. Doesn't it make it harder to displace them? I'm just curious at what edge do you think Intel has to change the status quo of share shift in cloud server? Do you think your design will get noticeably better? Is it architecture? Is it manufacturing? What helps you specifically to change this current momentum of share shift in cloud servers, specifically?

是的。第二個問題是關於數據中心的。從歷史上看，半導體市場喜歡在位，只有當在位者搞砸時，才會出現份額轉移。而現在，您的競爭對手似乎在許多雲部署中成為更大的老牌企業，似乎並沒有搞砸。取代它們不會更難嗎？我只是好奇你認為英特爾有什麼優勢可以改變雲服務器份額轉移的現狀？您認為您的設計會明顯改善嗎？是建築嗎？是製造業嗎？具體是什麼幫助您改變當前云服務器份額轉移的勢頭？

Yes. Thank you. And I think the most important thing is what we just did with Sapphire Rapids, right? Our customers were anxious for a great product from Intel. Obviously, we would have liked it to be earlier as we had initially estimated, but we are now shipping a very high-quality product with significant areas of leadership in areas like AI performance, power performance, security feature function, high-performance computing workflows that are 5x the competition and features in areas like confidential computing and security that are quite differentiated from anything in the marketplace.

是的。謝謝你。我認為最重要的是我們剛剛對 Sapphire Rapids 所做的，對吧？我們的客戶渴望英特爾提供出色的產品。顯然，我們希望它能像我們最初估計的那樣早一些，但我們現在交付的是一款非常高質量的產品，在 AI 性能、電源性能、安全功能、高性能計算工作流等領域處於領先地位這是競爭的 5 倍，並且在機密計算和安全性等領域的功能與市場上的任何產品都截然不同。

Obviously, share shift, right, particularly in the data center space, these designs were 1 a year ago, right, or 2 years ago. And so it takes some amount of time. And against that, we're seeing a very strong outlook for Sapphire Rapids ramp through the year, as I said, 1 million units in the middle of the year. So very strong demand from our customers.

顯然，份額轉移，對，特別是在數據中心領域，這些設計是 1 年前，對，或 2 年前。所以這需要一些時間。與此相反，正如我所說，我們看到 Sapphire Rapids 全年增長的前景非常強勁，年中將達到 100 萬台。所以我們客戶的需求非常強烈。

And the other thing, as we've indicated, is have we rewon our customers' confidence that they could bet on our road map. And then we'll ramp it looking very healthy for later this year. Granite Rapids and CR4 is looking very healthy for next year. And all of those, I believe, are rebuilding our customers' confidence. And I believe with that, given the massive incumbency that Intel has, and I would just emphasize that even though we have seen the share shift in recent sell-in, the installed base is Intel, right?

正如我們所指出的，另一件事是我們是否重新贏得了客戶的信心，讓他們相信他們可以押注我們的路線圖。然後我們將在今年晚些時候讓它看起來非常健康。 Granite Rapids 和 CR4 明年看起來非常健康。我相信，所有這些都在重建我們客戶的信心。而且我相信，鑑於英特爾擁有大量在職人員，我只想強調，即使我們看到最近銷售的份額發生變化，安裝基礎是英特爾，對嗎？

There's an enormous on some -- many of the cloud customers, 95-plus percent of their installed base is Intel. That gives us a very strong incumbency that we get to renew as we rebuild our customers' confidence. So as you put all of those things together, yes, we realize that we stumble, right? We lost share. We lost momentum. We think that stabilizes this year, and we're going to be building a road map that allows us to regain leadership for the long term in this critical market.

有一些 - 許多雲客戶，95% 以上的安裝基礎是英特爾。這給了我們一個非常強大的責任感，我們可以在重建客戶信心的過程中更新它。所以當你把所有這些東西放在一起時，是的，我們意識到我們絆倒了，對吧？我們失去了份額。我們失去了動力。我們認為今年會穩定下來，我們將製定路線圖，使我們能夠在這個關鍵市場中長期重新獲得領導地位。

Our next question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Timothy Arcuri。

Dave, I had a question on CapEx. I know you don't want to guide for the full year, but you did say that 20% to 30% of the gross CapEx, whatever the number is this year is going to be offsets. I know you don't have a lot of visibility on the chips money you're going to get. But it seems like best case, revenue is going to be in the mid-50s roughly. And if I take a little less than 35% of that, because you said that it's still going to be 35% or less, that will be the net CapEx intensity. And I sort of divide the numbers, it implies a gross CapEx number, something in the range of $20 billion, give or take. Can you sort of help us just handicap that number?

戴夫，我有一個關於資本支出的問題。我知道你不想指導全年，但你確實說過總資本支出的 20% 到 30%，無論今年的數字是多少，都將被抵消。我知道你對你將要獲得的籌碼錢沒有太多的了解。但這似乎是最好的情況，收入將大致在 50 年代中期。如果我拿不到其中的 35%，因為你說它仍然會是 35% 或更少，那將是淨資本支出強度。我對數字進行了某種劃分，這意味著資本支出總額，在 200 億美元的範圍內，給予或接受。你能幫我們解決這個問題嗎？

Yes. So let me see if I can -- obviously, we're trying to avoid guiding beyond the first quarter given the murkiness. I would just say we are very focused on the appropriate level of investment necessary for the long-term strategy of IDM 2.0 while being very thoughtful around how much CapEx we spend to manage our free cash flow. I think Smart Capital offsets will be pretty healthy this year, much better than last year. Partly, that's because we'll be fully along with SCIPs 1 with our partnership with Brookfield.

是的。所以讓我看看我是否可以 - 顯然，鑑於陰暗，我們正在努力避免在第一季度之後進行指導。我只想說，我們非常關注 IDM 2.0 長期戰略所需的適當投資水平，同時非常考慮我們花費多少資本支出來管理我們的自由現金流。我認為 Smart Capital 抵消今年將非常健康，比去年好得多。部分原因是，我們將與 Brookfield 合作，完全支持 SCIPs 1。

We are expecting grant incentives to be a part of this year's Smart capital offsets. And so those -- and then lastly, we do have already in place the investment tax credit, which could have some benefit to us this year. So certainly, Smart capital will be healthy, but we are being very prudent around our gross capital spend through the year. And we'll -- as we kind of progress through the year, we'll see how things develop, and we'll -- you can expect us to manage it accordingly.

我們預計贈款激勵將成為今年智能資本補償的一部分。所以那些 - 最後，我們確實已經實施了投資稅收抵免，這可能對我們今年有一些好處。因此，Smart capital 肯定會很健康，但我們對全年的總資本支出非常謹慎。我們將——隨著我們在這一年取得進展，我們將看到事情的發展，我們將——你可以期待我們相應地管理它。

I think most importantly, we did not expect to be at this revenue level, obviously, for '23 when we talked about this net CapEx intensity of 35%. And yet we still maintain the discipline to stay at or below that 35% for the year. And I think that's what investors should take away from that message.

我認為最重要的是，當我們談到 35% 的淨資本支出強度時，我們顯然沒有期望在 23 年達到這個收入水平。然而，我們仍然堅持在今年保持在 35% 或以下的紀律。我認為這就是投資者應該從該信息中汲取的信息。

Yes. Also, I'd just add, we do -- and Dave sort of implied it, but we do expect to do SCIP 2 this year as well, which is another source and also the credit center clearly there's motivation on the part of commerce to get that underway and the rules making in place in the near future and start to dispense funds this year.

是的。另外，我想補充一點，我們這樣做了——戴夫有點暗示，但我們確實希望今年也做 SCIP 2，這是另一個來源，而且信用中心顯然有商業方面的動機在不久的將來開始實施並製定規則，並在今年開始分配資金。

Also, I'd point to Europe as well. So it's EU chips as well as U.S. chip. So all of those efforts are part of Smart capital for us. We do believe that we'll have the capital necessary to meet both our near-term but more importantly, the strategic long-term investments. And that's what we say we're on track with IDM 2.0. We're on track with the capital, the builds that allow us to restore leadership in our process technology as well as have the factory capacity to both deliver that for our products as well as for our foundry customers.

另外，我還要指出歐洲。所以它是歐盟芯片，也是美國芯片。因此，所有這些努力都是我們智能資本的一部分。我們確實相信，我們將擁有必要的資金來滿足我們的短期但更重要的是戰略性的長期投資。這就是我們所說的我們在 IDM 2.0 上的進展。我們在資本和建設方面走上了正軌，這些建設使我們能夠恢復我們在工藝技術方面的領先地位，並擁有工廠能力來為我們的產品和我們的代工客戶提供領先地位。

Tim, do you have a follow-up?

蒂姆，你有後續行動嗎？

I do, John. Dave, can you just sort of walk through maybe some of the gross margin puts and takes. I know that, again, you don't want to guide for the full year. But can you just help us think about what some of the puts and takes might be? I mean obviously, as volumes grow, that will help gross margin. But are there any other puts and takes that you would sort of call out for us?

我知道，約翰。戴夫，你能不能簡單介紹一下毛利率的一些問題。我知道，再一次，你不想指導全年。但是你能幫我們想想看跌期權可能是什麼嗎？我的意思是，顯然，隨著銷量的增長，這將有助於提高毛利率。但是，您是否還有其他需要為我們提出的建議？

Yes. I think clearly, revenue is going to be the most significant driver of gross margins. We're a high-fixed cost model. So we suffer the consequence of that, obviously, when revenue is declining, but we also get the benefit when revenue is expanding. And so what will -- what is currently a headwind does turn to a tailwind as the business recovers.

是的。我清楚地認為，收入將成為毛利率的最重要驅動力。我們是高固定成本模式。因此，顯然，當收入下降時，我們會遭受這種後果，但當收入增加時，我們也會從中受益。那麼，隨著業務的複蘇，目前的逆風確實會變成順風。

The second most significant impact we have is the underload charges. So that's 400 basis points or so this quarter. And we'll make a determination as to what loading makes sense for the second quarter as we get closer to the second quarter. But we're doing this to be appropriate in terms of our management of cash flow. But again, as business conditions adjust, we will start loading the fab at a higher rate, and that will improve gross margins.

我們的第二大影響是欠載費用。所以這個季度是 400 個基點左右。隨著第二季度的臨近，我們將確定第二季度的加載量是有意義的。但就我們的現金流管理而言，我們這樣做是合適的。但同樣，隨著業務條件的調整，我們將開始以更高的速度加載晶圓廠，這將提高毛利率。

I think beyond that, it really is around a lot of the cost initiatives we have underway. It's the $3 billion for 2023, and it's the $8 billion to $10 billion improvement over the course of the next few years that really will help drive the costs and drive the gross margins beyond just revenue and loadings.

我認為除此之外，它確實與我們正在進行的許多成本計劃有關。這是 2023 年的 30 億美元，也是未來幾年 80 億至 100 億美元的改善，這將真正有助於推動成本和毛利率，而不僅僅是收入和裝載量。

And our next question comes from the line of C.J. Muse from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse。

Another question on CapEx. I guess bigger picture, can you kind of speak to your CapEx philosophy in a slower demand environment? Is it finding the right number to fit a free cash flow model? Or are you looking at kind of your overall demand picture and saying, we need x minus y wafer starts, and that's why we can spend less? Would love to get a sense of how kind of the slowdown here is potentially changing or potentially not your strategy of spending. And if it's not, is it just simply delaying investments into '24 and '25?

關於資本支出的另一個問題。我想大局觀，你能在需求放緩的環境中談談你的資本支出理念嗎？它是否找到適合自由現金流模型的正確數字？或者您是在查看總體需求情況並說，我們需要 x 減去 y 晶圓啟動，這就是我們可以減少支出的原因？很想了解這裡的放緩可能會改變您的支出策略，或者可能不會改變您的支出策略。如果不是，是否只是簡單地推遲了對 24 和 25 年的投資？

Yes. Thanks, C.J. I'll start and ask Dave to jump in. We sort of think about the capital budget with 2 lenses in mind, right? One is the strategic lens. Am I going to get back to leadership at 20A and 18A? Yes, am I going to make the capital investments required to do that? Absolutely. To some degree, do we scrub those? Could we look hard at those? Where can we save tens or hundreds of millions of dollars on those. Yes, we will. But we're not going to diminish from the capital required for strategic leadership for the long term. So strategic capital, largely unchanged.

是的。謝謝，C.J.我會開始請 Dave 加入。我們在考慮資本預算時考慮了 2 個鏡頭，對吧？一是戰略視角。我要回到 20A 和 18A 的領導地位嗎？是的，我是否要為此進行必要的資本投資？絕對地。在某種程度上，我們擦洗那些？我們可以仔細看看那些嗎？我們在哪裡可以節省數千萬或數億美元。是的，我們會。但我們不會減少長期戰略領導所需的資本。所以戰略資本，基本沒有變化。

The second bucket, of course, I'll just call it, capacity capital, right, and adjusting to the near-term ebb and flows of the business requirement. And obviously, in this macro environment, that's been adjusted meaningfully downward and we're finding everywhere we can to squeeze our existing capacity more effectively to be more aggressive in terms of how we work with our equipment suppliers in those areas and doing everything we can to minimize the capital that's required for capacity-driven requirements as well. And that's where the larger trade-offs have been. And of course, in a business as large as ours, we have labs and buildings and everything else. We are scrubbing those like crazy as you would want us to.

第二個桶，當然，我稱之為能力資本，對，並根據業務需求的近期潮起潮落進行調整。顯然，在這種宏觀環境下，它已經進行了有意義的向下調整，我們發現我們可以在任何地方更有效地擠壓我們現有的產能，以便在我們如何與這些領域的設備供應商合作以及盡我們所能方面更加積極以最大限度地減少容量驅動需求所需的資金。這就是更大的權衡所在。當然，在像我們這樣大的企業中，我們有實驗室、大樓和其他一切。我們正在像您希望我們那樣瘋狂地擦洗那些東西。

Dave, what else would you add?

戴夫，你還要補充什麼？

You took one of mine. Obviously, the OpEx area, yes, is an area that we've really focused on and Pat mentioned the lab piece, which is an area -- one of the areas that we have found efficiency. And I guess the last thing is that we have seen our capital offsets be higher than our original expectation. We were planning for probably 1/3 of what we think we'll get in 2023 when we announced our Smart capital initiative in -- at the Analyst Day. So that's obviously coming in stronger. Of course, Pat already alluded to the fact that a lot of that is -- SCIP has turned out to be a pretty powerful tool, and this will enable us to do a SCIP 2 this year as well, which obviously helps.

你拿走了我的一個。顯然，OpEx 領域，是的，是我們真正關注的領域，Pat 提到了實驗室工作，這是一個領域——我們發現效率的領域之一。我想最後一件事是我們已經看到我們的資本補償高於我們最初的預期。當我們在分析師日宣布我們的智能資本計劃時，我們計劃在 2023 年實現我們預期的 1/3。所以這顯然變得更強大了。當然，Pat 已經提到了這樣一個事實——SCIP 已經證明是一個非常強大的工具，這將使我們今年也能夠完成 SCIP 2，這顯然有幫助。

C.J., do you have a follow-up?

C.J.，你有後續行動嗎？

I do, a quick one. And again, I know you don't want to guide the full year, but as you kind of look at different scenario analysis for 2023, how do you see kind of return to positive free cash flow playing out? Is that something that could come in the second half? Or that's really in '24 of that?

我知道，一個快速的。再一次，我知道你不想指導全年，但當你看一下 2023 年的不同情景分析時，你如何看待正自由現金流的回歸？這會在下半場出現嗎？或者那真的是在 24 年嗎？

Well, '23, we were thinking was kind of a breakeven free cash flow year for us back at the Analyst Day last February. Obviously, in the first half of this year, we're going to be below that model. But as we look into the back half of the year, we would expect to approach the model in '23. And of course, '24 is a bit away from where we are right now, but this is the thing that we spend a lot of time on.

好吧，23 年，我們認為在去年 2 月的分析師日對我們來說是一個收支平衡的自由現金流年。顯然，在今年上半年，我們將低於該模型。但當我們展望今年下半年時，我們預計會在 23 年接近該模型。當然，'24 離我們現在的位置有點遠，但這是我們花費大量時間的事情。

I would tell you one thing, if you look at our free cash flow for '22, we came in roughly around minus $4 billion. If you remember, in the quarter before, we forecasted that we would be somewhere between minus $2 billion and minus $4 billion. We were actually assuming a higher level of capital offsets, which is still coming, but pushed into '23. And yet we still hit the high end of that range. And the way we did it was through working capital initiatives. So this is a big part of our strategy around managing free cash flow is more attention to working capital.

我會告訴你一件事，如果你看看我們 22 年的自由現金流，我們的收入大約是負 40 億美元。如果您還記得，在前一個季度，我們預測我們的收入將介於負 20 億美元和負 40 億美元之間。我們實際上假設了更高水平的資本抵消，這仍在繼續，但被推到了 23 年。然而，我們仍然達到了該範圍的高端。我們這樣做的方式是通過營運資本計劃。因此，這是我們管理自由現金流的戰略的重要組成部分，更多地關注營運資金。

It's something that I think in the past may not have been a big focus here, but is a very big focus here. It's how we -- how our shipments are managed in terms of linearity, how we manage payments, how we manage our inventory. The fact that we're taking underload does affect the gross margins, but it also improves our cash flow because we're spending less on variable costs.

我認為這在過去可能不是這裡的重點，但在這裡是一個非常大的重點。這就是我們如何——我們如何在線性方面管理我們的發貨，我們如何管理付款，我們如何管理我們的庫存。事實上，我們承受的負荷不足確實影響了毛利率，但它也改善了我們的現金流，因為我們在可變成本上的支出減少了。

So these are areas that we think can be pretty beneficial to us and be a tailwind for us in terms of free cash flow as we progress through the year.

因此，我們認為這些領域對我們非常有利，並且隨著我們今年的進展，在自由現金流方面對我們來說是順風。

And our next question comes from the line of Matt Ramsay from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Matt Ramsay。

Dave, the first question I get a lot is just with the challenges that you just mentioned at C.J.'s question on free cash flow. And I guess, well done to you and your team of extracting as much cash as you did out of working capital in the quarter. But I get questions about the security of the dividend all the time. And maybe that's a Board-level decision, but maybe you and Pat can address it a bit. Is that -- the current levels of dividend, is that sort of a sacrosanct thing at Intel in your current operating plan? Are there discussions around it either way? Don't shoot the messenger, it's a question I get a ton.

戴夫，我得到的第一個問題就是你剛剛在 C.J. 關於自由現金流的問題中提到的挑戰。我想，您和您的團隊在本季度從營運資金中提取的現金與您提取的現金一樣多，做得很好。但我一直對股息的安全性有疑問。也許這是董事會級別的決定，但也許你和 Pat 可以稍微解決一下。那是 - 當前的股息水平，在您當前的運營計劃中，這是英特爾的一種神聖不可侵犯的事情嗎？是否有圍繞它的討論？不要向信使開槍，這是我經常遇到的問題。

Yes. Well, obviously, we announced a $0.365 dividend for the first quarter. That was consistent with the last quarter's dividend. I'd just say the Board, management, we take a very disciplined approach to the capital allocation strategy, and we're going to remain committed to being very prudent around how we allocate capital for the owners. And we are committed to maintaining a competitive dividend.

是的。好吧，顯然，我們宣布了第一季度 0.365 美元的股息。這與上一季度的股息一致。我只想說，董事會、管理層，我們對資本分配策略採取了非常嚴格的方法，我們將繼續致力於在如何為所有者分配資本方面非常謹慎。我們致力於保持有競爭力的紅利。

Matt, do you have a follow-up question?

馬特，你有後續問題嗎？

Yes. I guess as my follow-up question, guys, I wanted to dig into the DCAI business a little bit. And you guys talked about, I think, the PSG or Altera being up, I don't know, 40-odd percent year-over-year, which if you just kind of rough math, it means that the core cloud plus enterprise server business is down 40%, something like that. And so maybe, Pat, could you walk us through what -- is that roughly right in terms of math and just where your -- how you see share loss versus ASP versus weakness in the markets in China and enterprise? Just how do you break that down for us, what operationally is happening in the server share space.

是的。我想作為我的後續問題，伙計們，我想深入研究一下 DCAI 業務。你們談到了，我想，PSG 或 Altera 正在上升，我不知道，同比增長 40% 以上，如果你只是粗略地算一下，這意味著核心雲加上企業服務器業務下降了 40%，差不多這樣。因此，帕特，您能否向我們介紹一下 - 這在數學方面是否大致正確以及您的 - 您如何看待份額損失與 ASP 以及中國和企業市場的疲軟？您如何為我們分解它，服務器共享空間中發生了什麼操作。

Yes. So PSG did have a very good quarter, has a very strong backlog, continues to grow. But I'd say the math that you suggest is quite incorrect given the relative size of those businesses. So we'll happily offline talk a little bit more through that. That said, we did -- we grew less than the market last year and saw some share loss. We see that stabilizing this year. The key factor is better products, right? And we've just released that with Sapphire Rapids and getting great response and our announcement event on January 10 was a customer-centric ramps baby product line.

是的。所以 PSG 確實有一個非常好的季度，有非常強大的積壓，繼續增長。但我要說的是，考慮到這些企業的相對規模，你建議的數學是非常不正確的。因此，我們會很高興通過它進行更多的線下討論。也就是說，我們做到了——我們去年的增長低於市場，並且出現了一些份額損失。我們看到今年趨於穩定。關鍵因素是更好的產品，對吧？我們剛剛發布了 Sapphire Rapids 並獲得了很好的反響，我們在 1 月 10 日的公告活動是一個以客戶為中心的坡道嬰兒產品線。

We had strong participation from all the CSPs, all of the OEMs, all of the ISVs, end users. So it was seen as a very strong event. This year will be very much about ramping that and we'll see the improvements in both market share position as well as ASPs as we ramp that product through the year, and the confidence in the road map. And that will be the determinant, okay, you have a better product now, great. Customers are building it on an installed base. But do we have confidence in your long term?

我們得到了所有 CSP、所有 OEM、所有 ISV 和最終用戶的大力參與。因此，它被視為一個非常強大的事件。今年將非常關注這一點，我們將看到市場份額地位和 ASP 的改善，因為我們在這一年中提升了該產品，以及對路線圖的信心。這將是決定因素，好吧，你現在有了更好的產品，太好了。客戶在已安裝的基礎上構建它。但是我們對你的長期有信心嗎？

So I'd say we've reestablished a very credible road map. You'll see lots of news coming from us this year as we start delivering on samples, et cetera, of the next-generation products as well as the continued ramp of Sapphire Rapids with highly differentiated features and capabilities. So we feel like we've put the worst behind us, right? And we're now coming back to the front foot in this business area. And I'll say in a very customer-centric ISV-centric way, that delivers our customers the use cases that they need in their business.

所以我想說我們已經重新制定了一個非常可靠的路線圖。今年，隨著我們開始交付下一代產品的樣品等，以及具有高度差異化特性和功能的 Sapphire Rapids 的持續增長，您會看到我們今年發布的許多新聞。所以我們覺得我們已經把最糟糕的事情拋在腦後，對吧？我們現在又回到了這個業務領域的前沿。我會以一種非常以客戶為中心的以 ISV 為中心的方式說，這為我們的客戶提供了他們在業務中所需的用例。

And our next question comes from the line of Toshi Hari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshi Hari。

Pat, I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the demand environment in DCAI across cloud, enterprise and perhaps your comms customers. I think in your prepared remarks, you talked about the inventory correction in enterprise being ahead of cloud. So do those comments kind of imply that going forward, cloud could -- the demand there could moderate or decline as we progress through the year? Or if you can expand on that, that would be helpful.

帕特，我希望你能談談 DCAI 中跨雲、企業和可能是你的通信客戶的需求環境。我認為在您準備好的發言中，您談到了企業領先於雲的庫存調整。那麼，這些評論是否暗示著未來，雲可能——隨著我們今年的進展，那裡的需求可能會放緩或下降？或者，如果您可以對此進行擴展，那將會很有幫助。

Great. Great. Thank you, Toshi. The -- what we said clearly that we did see demand softening through the year in data center overall. That's a market statement. Obviously, we have more exposure to enterprise in China, which we believe weakened our position a little bit more in the year, but we're seeing those same characteristics now with the cloud providers as well. So we see all of them weaker in the first half of the year. We are, I'll say, a touch optimistic that China will come back and enterprise will come back more rapidly than the cloud. And with our stronger exposure in those segments, we believe that is a potential good news for us as we go through the year relative to competition.

偉大的。偉大的。謝謝你，東施。 - 我們明確表示，我們確實看到整個數據中心的需求在全年都在走軟。這是一個市場聲明。顯然，我們對中國企業的敞口更大，我們認為這在今年削弱了我們的地位，但我們現在也看到了雲提供商的相同特徵。所以我們看到他們在今年上半年都比較疲軟。我要說的是，我們有點樂觀地認為中國會回來，企業會比雲更快地回來。由於我們在這些領域的曝光率更高，我們相信這對我們來說是一個潛在的好消息，因為我們經歷了與競爭相關的這一年。

The networking space is one where we have very sustained leadership and strength in areas like vRAN and O-RAN, are ones that our platform is dramatically better than competitors. And with that strong market share through the year, we also expect some level of softening there in those in the networking area, but not as much as some of the other segments that we would have.

在網絡領域，我們在 vRAN 和 O-RAN 等領域擁有非常持久的領導地位和實力，我們的平台明顯優於競爭對手。憑藉全年強勁的市場份額，我們還預計網絡領域的市場份額會出現一定程度的疲軟，但不會像我們擁有的其他一些細分市場那麼多。

First half of the year, we expect to be down year-on-year in the second half of the year to returning to growth. So inventory adjustments, a weaker market in first half, recovery in the second half of the year is what we expect. Overall, and obviously, the relative position, we believe, that we have is stabilizing and the markets that we're stronger in, we're optimistic that they'll come back a little bit stronger as we go through the year.

上半年，我們預計下半年同比下降，恢復增長。所以庫存調整，上半年市場走弱，下半年回暖是我們的預期。總體而言，很明顯，我們相信，我們所擁有的相對地位正在穩定，我們所處的市場更強大，我們樂觀地認為，隨著我們度過這一年，它們會恢復得更強勁。

Toshi, do you have a follow-up?

Toshi，你有後續行動嗎？

I do. Pat, you also talked about your focus and commitment toward value creation, you mentioned how you guys are pulling future investments from the switching business. As you look across your portfolio as of today. I think to your point, you've done quite a lot since coming back. Like where is the incremental opportunity as you think about improving the portfolio going forward and creating value?

我願意。帕特，你還談到了你對價值創造的關注和承諾，你提到了你們如何從交換業務中吸引未來的投資。當您查看您今天的投資組合時。我認為按照你的觀點，你回來後做了很多事情。比如，當您考慮改進投資組合併創造價值時，增量機會在哪裡？

Yes. And I'll just say here without being too specific, some of these things are under evaluation, discussion with customers and the best way to handle it. We're doing a thorough analysis across the portfolio. And I would say we are looking at every aspect of the portfolio, where we're getting good returns, where we're not. And we're making decision after decision to optimize the portfolio. And as you say, we haven't been hesitant to make those decisions inside the back. And we have a few more that we're looking carefully at.

是的。我只是在這裡說而不是太具體，其中一些事情正在評估、與客戶討論以及處理它的最佳方式。我們正在對整個投資組合進行全面分析。我會說我們正在研究投資組合的各個方面，我們在哪些方面獲得了良好的回報，哪些方面我們沒有。我們正在做出優化投資組合的決定。正如你所說，我們毫不猶豫地在後場做出這些決定。我們還有一些正在仔細研究。

But we're also looking at every area of the business. Dave suggested in his comments, "Hey, can we do a better job with our lineups? Could we do a better job with our building assets?" We've also discussed, as part of the internal foundry model, that we're making major steps to improve our automation and ERP efficiency to run the company more. Some of our people actions, we've been very scrutinizing and benchmarking ourselves against best-in-class in every aspect of how we run the business.

但我們也在關注業務的各個領域。戴夫在他的評論中建議，“嘿，我們可以在我們的陣容上做得更好嗎？我們可以在我們的建築資產上做得更好嗎？”我們還討論了，作為內部鑄造模型的一部分，我們正在採取重大步驟來提高我們的自動化和 ERP 效率，以更好地運營公司。在我們的一些人員行動中，我們一直在非常仔細地審查自己，並在我們運營業務的各個方面與同類最佳進行比較。

So one by one, we're saying we're going to be world-class as measured by benchmarks in these areas and all the business areas that we're in, we believe they're strategically important and yielding good results with our shareholders' investments.

因此，我們一一表示，按照這些領域和我們所處的所有業務領域的基準衡量，我們將成為世界一流的，我們相信它們具有戰略重要性，並為我們的股東帶來良好的結果'投資。

Then our final question for today comes from the line of Joseph Moore from Morgan Stanley.

那麼我們今天的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的約瑟夫摩爾。

Wonder if you could talk about the reception you're seeing with Sapphire Rapids. And in particular, it seems like it's a really good chip. But I think the price at the platform level is getting more expensive, DDR5 is more expensive. What's it like right now migrating to a more expensive platform and environment or budgets are under pressure, does that change the ramp relative to other CPUs that you have?

想知道您是否可以談談您對 Sapphire Rapids 的接待。特別是，它似乎是一個非常好的芯片。但我覺得平台層面的價格越來越貴，DDR5更貴。現在遷移到更昂貴的平台和環境或預算面臨壓力是什麼感覺，這是否會改變相對於您擁有的其他 CPU 的增長速度？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. And you are touching on a very important issue, the memory. And obviously, the memory pricing for DDR4 has collapsed, right? And it -- making that pricing gap versus DDR5 very visible currently. That said, customers don't buy these platforms on memory prices. They buy them on TCO, right? The total cost of the operations, right, that they get for the performance as they put them into operations.

是的。謝謝，喬。你正在觸及一個非常重要的問題，即記憶。顯然，DDR4 的內存定價已經崩潰，對吧？而且它 - 使得目前與 DDR5 的價格差距非常明顯。也就是說，客戶不會以內存價格購買這些平台。他們以 TCO 購買它們，對嗎？運營的總成本，正確的，他們在將它們投入運營時獲得的性能。

So memory price is one piece of that. But I'd also say DDR prices are expected to decline as we go through DDR5 price and the gap to DDR4 is widely forecast to decline, and that gap will diminish as we go through the year.

所以內存價格是其中的一部分。但我還要說，隨著 DDR5 價格的上漲，DDR 價格預計會下降，而與 DDR4 的差距被普遍預測會下降，而且隨著我們度過這一年，這一差距將會縮小。

However, right, you contrast that to the significant performance capability. And in some areas like AI, we're seeing 5x to 6x performance benefits. And when you put that into a TCO calculation, it's overwhelmingly positive. Security is not measured on TCO. It's measured on absolute statements of security and confidential computing.

但是，對，您將其與重要的性能進行對比。在 AI 等某些領域，我們看到了 5 到 6 倍的性能優勢。當您將其納入 TCO 計算時，它是絕對積極的。安全性不是根據 TCO 來衡量的。它是根據安全和機密計算的絕對聲明來衡量的。

So overall, we are driving this ramp very aggressively through the year. We have strong demand of customers. We're ramping our factories quickly. And we do believe that we'll have a strong ramp of the Sapphire Rapids platform as we go through the year.

因此，總的來說，我們在這一年中非常積極地推動這一增長。我們有強烈的客戶需求。我們正在迅速擴大我們的工廠。我們確實相信，在這一年中，我們將擁有 Sapphire Rapids 平台的強勁增長。

Joe, do you have a quick follow-up?

喬，你有快速跟進嗎？

Yes. I also just wanted to touch on -- I mean you mentioned the migration of the ASG business into DCAI and CCG. Is that -- is there a change there in any of the priorities? Or is it just kind of a restructuring of where those businesses reside?

是的。我還想談談——我的意思是你提到了 ASG 業務向 DCAI 和 CCG 的遷移。那是-- 優先事項有變化嗎？還是只是對這些企業所在地進行重組？

Yes. It's a restructuring of where the businesses reside and as we move past this, I'll say, launch phase of those products. And we're now into the scale phase of those product lines. And for instance, discrete graphics, driving the attach rate and channel motions with our enormous client business. In the data center, bringing a broader portfolio across HPC, our Flex product line, the AI capabilities that we have that we're uniquely delivering through data center. So all of this is about is the efficiency and scale of those business areas. And we've been having numerous discussions with our customers about these changes, and they have been very well received.

是的。這是對企業所在地的重組，隨著我們過去，我會說，這些產品的啟動階段。我們現在進入了這些產品線的規模化階段。例如，獨立顯卡通過我們龐大的客戶業務推動附加率和渠道活動。在數據中心，在 HPC、我們的 Flex 產品線以及我們通過數據中心獨特提供的 AI 功能中帶來更廣泛的產品組合。因此，所有這一切都與這些業務領域的效率和規模有關。我們一直在與客戶就這些變化進行多次討論，他們的反應非常好。

And I'd say all the products that we launched out of AXG, the Flex product line, the discrete graphics product line, the MAX product lines. All of those products are continuing forward, and we believe all of those will have strong ramps in their volumes revenues and market impact as we go through the year.

我會說我們從 AXG、Flex 產品線、獨立顯卡產品線、MAX 產品線推出的所有產品。所有這些產品都在繼續向前發展，我們相信，隨著我們度過這一年，所有這些產品的銷量收入和市場影響都將有強勁的增長。

So with that, let me just wrap up our time together. First, thank you. We're grateful for you joining us today, the opportunity that you've given us to update you on our business. And clearly, the financials aren't what we would hope for. But we're also pleased with the execution progress we made. And as a result, we're confident in the strategic outlook that we have for our business.

因此，讓我一起結束我們的時間。首先，謝謝。我們感謝您今天加入我們，這是您給我們的機會，讓我們向您介紹我們的業務。顯然，財務狀況不是我們所希望的。但我們也對我們取得的執行進展感到滿意。因此，我們對我們的業務戰略前景充滿信心。

The macro is difficult. It was difficult in Q4. We expect it to remain difficult as we go through the first half of the year, but we're laser-focused on controlling the things that we can. And every aspect of our execution, cost management and transformation is in our hands and we are well underway in executing against those paths.

宏很難。第四季度很困難。我們預計在今年上半年它仍然很困難，但我們專注於控制我們可以控制的事情。我們執行、成本管理和轉型的每個方面都掌握在我們手中，我們正在按照這些路徑執行。

So with that, we look forward to seeing many of you throughout the quarter, updating you on our progress next quarter. Thank you very much.

因此，我們期待在整個季度見到你們中的許多人，向你們介紹下個季度的進展情況。非常感謝你。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了程序。您現在可以斷開連接。再會。