英特爾 (INTC) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q3 2020 Intel Corporation Earnings Conference. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    女士們,先生們,感謝你們的支持,歡迎來到英特爾公司 2020 年第三季度財報大會。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。 (操作員說明)

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your host, Director of Investor Relations, Trey Campbell. Sir, please go ahead.

    我現在想將會議交給您的主持人,投資者關係總監 Trey Campbell。先生,請繼續。

  • Trey Campbell - Head of IR

    Trey Campbell - Head of IR

  • Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Intel's third quarter earnings conference call. By now, you should have received a copy of our earnings release and the earnings presentation. If you've not received both documents, they're available on our investor website, intc.com. The earnings presentation is also available in the webcast window for those joining us online.

    謝謝運營商,歡迎大家參加英特爾第三季度財報電話會議。到目前為止,您應該已經收到了我們的收益發布和收益演示文稿的副本。如果您沒有收到這兩個文件,可以在我們的投資者網站 intc.com 上找到它們。在線加入我們的人也可以在網絡廣播窗口中獲得收益演示文稿。

  • I'm joined today by our CEO, Bob Swan; and our CFO, George Davis. In a moment, we'll hear brief remarks from both of them followed by Q&A.

    今天,我們的首席執行官 Bob Swan 加入了我的行列;和我們的首席財務官喬治戴維斯。稍後,我們將聽到他們兩人的簡短評論,然後是問答。

  • Before we begin, let me remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and, as such, does include risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our press release for more information on the specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

    在開始之前,讓我提醒大家,今天的討論包含基於我們目前所看到的環境的前瞻性陳述,因此確實包含風險和不確定性。請參閱我們的新聞稿,了解有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的特定風險因素的更多信息。

  • A brief reminder that this quarter, we have provided both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Today, we will be speaking to the non-GAAP financial measures when describing our consolidated results. The earnings presentation and earnings release available on intc.com include the full GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations.

    簡要提醒一下,本季度我們提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。今天,我們將在描述我們的綜合結果時談到非公認會計原則的財務指標。 intc.com 上提供的收益介紹和收益發布包括完整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 對賬。

  • With that, let me hand it over to Bob.

    有了這個,讓我把它交給鮑勃。

  • Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

    Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Trey, and thank you all for joining our call. We delivered solid third quarter revenue and profitability despite increasing COVID-driven headwinds affecting significant portions of our business. Led by strong consumer notebook demand and continued cloud growth, we generated $18.3 billion in revenue and delivered $1.11 in EPS. We exceeded our top line expectation by $133 million and our bottom line expectation by $0.01. I'm incredibly proud of our employees' performance through these challenging conditions. Our team has shown tremendous perseverance and has really come together as one Intel to deliver for our customers.

    謝謝,特雷,謝謝大家加入我們的電話。儘管影響我們大部分業務的 COVID 驅動的逆風增加,但我們在第三季度實現了穩健的收入和盈利能力。在強勁的消費筆記本需求和持續的雲增長的帶動下,我們創造了 183 億美元的收入和 1.11 美元的每股收益。我們超出了我們的頂線預期 1.33 億美元和我們的底線預期 0.01 美元。我為我們的員工在這些充滿挑戰的條件下的表現感到無比自豪。我們的團隊表現出極大的毅力,真正團結起來作為一個英特爾為我們的客戶提供服務。

  • Over the last couple of years, we have been focused on 3 critical priorities: improving our execution to strengthen our core business, extending our reach to accelerate the growth of the company and continuing to thoughtfully deploy your capital.

    在過去的幾年裡,我們一直專注於 3 個關鍵優先事項:改進執行以加強我們的核心業務,擴大我們的影響力以加速公司的發展,以及繼續深思熟慮地部署您的資本。

  • Let me discuss our third quarter progress. First, improving our execution to strengthen our core business. This quarter, we launched our 11th Gen Intel Core processors with Intel Iris Xe graphics codename Tiger Lake. This is the world's best processor for thin and light notebooks. In real-world workloads versus competitive products, Tiger Lake delivers up to 2.7x faster content creation, 20% faster office productivity and more than 2x faster gaming plus streaming. I'm excited to announce that we now expect 100 Tiger Lake-based designs in the market by the end of this year, double the expectation we provided in April.

    讓我討論一下我們第三季度的進展。首先,提高我們的執行力以加強我們的核心業務。本季度,我們推出了第 11 代英特爾酷睿處理器,採用英特爾 Iris Xe 圖形代號 Tiger Lake。這是世界上最適合輕薄筆記本電腦的處理器。與競爭產品相比,在實際工作負載中,Tiger Lake 的內容創建速度提高了 2.7 倍,辦公效率提高了 20%,遊戲和流媒體的速度提高了 2 倍以上。我很高興地宣布,我們現在預計到今年年底市場上將有 100 款基於 Tiger Lake 的設計,是我們在 4 月份提供的預期的兩倍。

  • Tiger Lake is a shining example of the product leadership we can deliver for our customers through our 6 pillars of technology innovation: breakthrough architectural improvements in CPU, graphics, AI and software combined with our newest 10-nanometer-based technology, SuperFin, which delivers the largest single internal performance improvement in our history.

    Tiger Lake 是我們可以通過 6 大技術創新支柱為客戶提供產品領先地位的光輝典範:CPU、圖形、人工智能和軟件方面的突破性架構改進與我們最新的基於 10 納米的技術 SuperFin 相結合,可提供我們歷史上最大的單一內部績效改進。

  • Accompanying the Tiger Lake launch, we also updated our master brand and debuted a new platform brand, Evo. Based on 11th Gen Core, Evo designs support the sleekest thin and light form factors with premium connectivity, audio and video. Each Evo notebook is verified to deliver consistent responsiveness, outstanding real-world battery life, instant wake and fast charging. We expect our customers to have 40 Evo designs in market by the end of the year.

    伴隨著 Tiger Lake 的發布,我們還更新了我們的主品牌,並推出了一個新的平台品牌 Evo。 Evo 設計基於第 11 代酷睿,支持最時尚的輕薄外形,具有出色的連接性、音頻和視頻功能。每台 Evo 筆記本電腦都經過驗證,可提供一致的響應能力、出色的實際電池壽命、即時喚醒和快速充電。我們預計到今年年底,我們的客戶將在市場上推出 40 款 Evo 設計。

  • Turning to our data center business. We and our customers are excited about the upcoming launch of our 3rd Gen Xeon Scalable product, Ice Lake. We're targeting qualification at the end of Q4 with volume ramp shortly after in Q1. Recently, Oracle announced that they plan to leverage the computing performance of Ice Lake for the next generation of cloud-based high-performance computing instances within Oracle cloud infrastructure. The combination of 3rd Gen Intel Xeon Scalable processors with other improvements in Oracle's new X9 generation instance can drive up to 30% higher performance gains on certain workloads compared with the existing X7 generation instances.

    轉向我們的數據中心業務。我們和我們的客戶對即將推出的第三代至強可擴展產品 Ice Lake 感到興奮。我們的目標是在第 4 季度末進行資格認證,並在第 1 季度後不久增加銷量。最近,甲骨文宣布他們計劃在甲骨文云基礎設施中利用 Ice Lake 的計算性能為下一代基於雲的高性能計算實例。與現有的 X7 代實例相比,第 3 代 Intel Xeon 可擴展處理器與 Oracle 新 X9 代實例的其他改進相結合,可以在某些工作負載上將性能提升高達 30%。

  • CPUs are foundational to our business, but we are also adding a range of other processing engines, or XPUs, to our portfolio. We've made great strides in graphics, and we are now scaling our graphics architecture from integrated to discrete levels of performance.

    CPU 是我們業務的基礎,但我們還在產品組合中添加了一系列其他處理引擎或 XPU。我們在圖形方面取得了長足的進步,現在我們正在將我們的圖形架構從集成性能級別擴展到離散級別。

  • Our first discrete GPU, DG1, is shipping now and will be in systems for multiple OEMs later in Q4. We also powered on our next-generation GPU for client, DG2. Based on our Xe high-performance gaming architecture, this product will take our discrete graphics capability up the stack into the enthusiast segment.

    我們的第一款獨立 GPU DG1 現已發貨,並將在第四季度晚些時候用於多家 OEM 的系統中。我們還為客戶端 DG2 啟用了下一代 GPU。該產品基於我們的 Xe 高性能遊戲架構,將把我們的獨立顯卡能力提升到發燒友領域。

  • Beyond the CPU and the GPU, our customers tell us that they want a diverse range of AI solutions to fit every power level and performance needs from the intelligent edge to the data center. For the most demanding AI workloads, our customers are looking for purpose-built XPUs that leverage a standard-based programming environment. With that in mind, we acquired Habana Labs almost a year ago. We've integrated Habana with our platform capabilities and added software resources so that we can deliver game-changing capability to the performance tier of the data center market. Habana's inference card is now in volume production and shipping to customers. And we're also in proof of concepts with several major cloud service providers on Habana's training card.

    除了 CPU 和 GPU,我們的客戶告訴我們,他們需要多樣化的 AI 解決方案來滿足從智能邊緣到數據中心的各種功率水平和性能需求。對於要求最苛刻的 AI 工作負載,我們的客戶正在尋找利用基於標準的編程環境的專用 XPU。考慮到這一點,我們在大約一年前收購了 Habana Labs。我們已將 Habana 與我們的平台功能集成並添加了軟件資源,以便我們能夠為數據中心市場的性能層提供改變遊戲規則的功能。 Habana 的推理卡現已量產並交付給客戶。我們還在 Habana 培訓卡上與幾家主要雲服務提供商進行概念驗證。

  • In addition to our architectural advancements and process improvements with SuperFin, we've also advanced our packaging technologies. Several weeks ago, the U.S. Department of Defense awarded us the second phase of its state-of-the-art heterogeneous integration prototype program, or SHIPP. The SHIPP program enables the U.S. government to access Intel's state-of-the-art semiconductor packaging capabilities in Arizona and Oregon and take advantage of capabilities created by Intel's tens of billions of dollars of annual R&D and manufacturing investments.

    除了我們通過 SuperFin 進行的架構改進和流程改進之外,我們還改進了我們的封裝技術。幾週前,美國國防部授予我們其最先進的異構集成原型計劃 (SHIPP) 的第二階段。 SHIPP 計劃使美國政府能夠獲得英特爾在亞利桑那州和俄勒岡州最先進的半導體封裝能力,並利用英特爾每年數百億美元的研發和製造投資所創造的能力。

  • Software is another essential pillar for product leadership, which is why we have more than 15,000 software engineers working across the stack from BIOS to application optimization. As an example, we have dedicated software experts who optimize key workloads using our hardware capabilities. Through these efforts, we have increased the performance of top data center workloads such as the NAMD molecular dynamic simulation code used in the fight against COVID-19 by 1.8x via AVX512 and natural language processing using the BERT model by 6.8x via a range of software optimizations. Additionally, we have been working closely with the ecosystem on the open standard oneAPI effort as part of the XPU transformation. With oneAPI, we are creating an open unified software architecture that can support the variety of XPUs that our customers demand. We've made tremendous progress with developers and released spec 1.0 of oneAPI in the third quarter and on track to have the gold release of oneAPI software in the fourth quarter this year.

    軟件是產品領先的另一個重要支柱,這就是為什麼我們有超過 15,000 名軟件工程師在從 BIOS 到應用程序優化的整個堆棧工作。例如,我們有專門的軟件專家使用我們的硬件功能優化關鍵工作負載。通過這些努力,我們通過 AVX512 將用於對抗 COVID-19 的 NAMD 分子動態模擬代碼等頂級數據中心工作負載的性能提高了 1.8 倍,並通過一系列的 BERT 模型將自然語言處理提高了 6.8 倍軟件優化。此外,作為 XPU 轉型的一部分,我們一直在與生態系統密切合作開發開放標準 oneAPI 工作。借助 oneAPI,我們正在創建一個開放的統一軟件架構,可以支持客戶所需的各種 XPU。我們與開發人員取得了巨大進展,並在第三季度發布了 oneAPI 規範 1.0,並有望在今年第四季度發布 oneAPI 軟件的黃金版本。

  • Second, we're focused on extending our reach to accelerate our growth. We are actively executing against a diversified growth strategy and now have several multibillion-dollar businesses fueled by data and the rise of artificial intelligence, 5G network transformation and the intelligent autonomous edge. We built these businesses by positioning the company to grow share in the largest market opportunity in our history in a world where everything increasingly looks like a computer. Our ambitions are much greater. And to realize them, we must play a larger role in our customers' success.

    其次,我們專注於擴大業務範圍以加速增長。我們正在積極執行多元化的增長戰略,現在擁有數個數十億美元的業務,這些業務受到數據和人工智能的興起、5G 網絡轉型和智能自主邊緣的推動。我們通過將公司定位為在我們歷史上最大的市場機會中增加份額來建立這些業務,這個世界越來越像計算機。我們的野心要大得多。為了實現它們,我們必須在客戶的成功中發揮更大的作用。

  • Here are some recent examples. We created OpenVINO in 2018 so that developers could quickly accelerate applications with deep learning inference and solutions deployed from edge to cloud. In the third quarter, our OpenVINO download rate was more than double our peak last year, and we've now seen our OpenVINO-related edge design wins scale more than 5x in the first half of this year versus the same time last year. And we're only beginning to realize the opportunities created by 5G. As communication service providers evolve their networks to support the rollout of future 5G networks, they are increasingly adopting a software-defined virtualized infrastructure.

    以下是一些最近的例子。我們在 2018 年創建了 OpenVINO,以便開發人員可以通過從邊緣部署到雲端的深度學習推理和解決方案快速加速應用程序。在第三季度,我們的 OpenVINO 下載率是去年峰值的兩倍多,而且我們現在看到,今年上半年我們與 OpenVINO 相關的邊緣設計勝率是去年同期的 5 倍以上。我們才剛剛開始意識到 5G 創造的機會。隨著通信服務提供商發展其網絡以支持未來 5G 網絡的推出,他們越來越多地採用軟件定義的虛擬化基礎設施。

  • This quarter, Verizon successfully completed the world's first fully virtualized end-to-end 5G data session, leveraging Intel's vast portfolio of products, including Xeon, FPGAs, Ethernet cards and Flex-ran software reference architecture and our years of experience in virtualization.

    本季度,Verizon 利用英特爾豐富的產品組合(包括至強、FPGA、以太網卡和 Flex-ran 軟件參考架構)以及我們在虛擬化方面的多年經驗,成功完成了全球首個完全虛擬化的端到端 5G 數據會話。

  • We continue to see excellent customer momentum in our Mobileye business. Year-to-date, we now have 29 new design wins for more than 26 million lifetime units. Following last quarter's landmark design win with Ford, we announced collaborations with Geely, AHG and WILLER. Geely Automotive Group, the largest privately held auto manufacturer in China, unveiled its new electric vehicle featuring Mobileye's SuperVision surround view for hands-free ADAS solution starting in late 2021. We expanded our Mobility-as-a-Service collaborations network with 2 important partnerships. The first is with Al Habtoor Group from the UAE; second, with WILLER Japan to propel the deployment of autonomous vehicles and Mobility-as-a-Service. Mobileye is also first of our IOTG businesses to return to pre-COVID levels as global vehicle production improved in the third quarter.

    我們繼續在 Mobileye 業務中看到出色的客戶發展勢頭。年初至今,我們已經為超過 2600 萬個使用壽命單位贏得了 29 項新設計。繼上個季度與福特取得里程碑式的設計勝利後,我們宣布與吉利、AHG 和 WILLER 合作。中國最大的私營汽車製造商吉利汽車集團於 2021 年底推出了配備 Mobileye 的 SuperVision 環視技術的免提 ADAS 解決方案的新型電動汽車。我們通過兩個重要的合作夥伴擴展了我們的移動即服務合作網絡.第一個是來自阿聯酋的 Al Habtoor Group;其次,與 WILLER Japan 共同推動自動駕駛汽車和移動即服務的部署。隨著第三季度全球汽車產量的改善,Mobileye 也是我們第一個恢復到 COVID 之前水平的 IOTG 業務。

  • Finally, we're always mindful of our role in thoughtfully allocating your capital. This week, we signed an agreement to sell SK hynix, our NAND memory business, for $9 billion. We believe this is a fantastic win-win transaction that allows us to focus our energy and investment in differentiated technologies where we can play a bigger role in the success of our customers and deliver attractive returns to our shareholders. At the same time, SK hynix can build on the success of our NAND technology at a greater scale and grow the memory ecosystem to the benefit of our data center customers, partners and employees.

    最後,我們始終牢記我們在深思熟慮地分配您的資金方面的作用。本週,我們簽署了一項協議,以 90 億美元的價格出售我們的 NAND 內存業務 SK hynix。我們相信這是一項了不起的雙贏交易,使我們能夠將精力和投資集中在差異化技術上,在這些技術上,我們可以在客戶的成功中發揮更大的作用,並為我們的股東帶來可觀的回報。與此同時,SK hynix 可以在我們 NAND 技術的成功基礎上更大規模地發展內存生態系統,以造福我們的數據中心客戶、合作夥伴和員工。

  • We are retaining our Optane technology and intend to continue investing, developing and scaling the Optane business. We've also significantly improved supply for our customers. We've expanded our capacity by more than 25% in 2020 and currently have 3 high-volume fabs producing 10-nanometer products to meet our customer demands.

    我們將保留我們的 Optane 技術,並打算繼續投資、開發和擴展 Optane 業務。我們還顯著改善了對客戶的供應。到 2020 年,我們的產能擴大了 25% 以上,目前擁有 3 家大批量生產 10 納米產品的晶圓廠,以滿足我們的客戶需求。

  • Earlier this quarter, we also entered into accelerated share repurchase agreements to repurchase $10 billion in stock. Following this repurchase, we will have completed approximately $17.6 billion of the $20 billion repurchase commitment we made in October of 2019.

    本季度早些時候,我們還簽訂了加速股票回購協議,以回購 100 億美元的股票。此次回購後,我們將完成 2019 年 10 月做出的 200 億美元回購承諾中的約 176 億美元。

  • We have a very strong balance sheet. And even as macroeconomic uncertainty persists, we are confident in our long-term strategy and the value we create as we grow our business.

    我們有一個非常強大的資產負債表。即使宏觀經濟的不確定性持續存在,我們對我們的長期戰略和我們在業務發展過程中創造的價值充滿信心。

  • Finally, let me share a few thoughts about the guiding principles we use to deliver the most value for our customers. Our overarching and most important priority is to deliver a predictable cadence of leadership products. A few years ago, we decided that an architectural shift to die disaggregation enabled by our differentiated advanced packaging would be a potent tool for employing the best technologies that we and the ecosystem can provide. We also realized that delivering on that promise meant engaging the ecosystem in a different way: treating the equipment and EDA providers and third-party foundries not as suppliers but as strategic partners that we can learn from and that can help us solve customer problems. Now we have more flexibility in whether we make or buy or whether we make for others.

    最後,讓我分享一些關於我們用來為客戶提供最大價值的指導原則的想法。我們首要和最重要的優先事項是提供可預測的領導產品節奏。幾年前,我們決定,通過我們差異化的先進封裝實現的向芯片分解的架構轉變將是採用我們和生態系統可以提供的最佳技術的有力工具。我們還意識到,兌現這一承諾意味著以不同的方式參與生態系統:將設備和 EDA 供應商以及第三方代工廠視為供應商,而不是我們可以從中學習並幫助我們解決客戶問題的戰略合作夥伴。現在,我們在製造、購買或為他人製造方面有了更大的靈活性。

  • Many of our future products can no longer be described as manufactured inside or outside or as being a large core or a small core product. These products will take advantage of hybrid architectural approaches and the universe of IP deployed both inside and outside the walls of Intel. That said, we have and do get great benefits from internal manufacturing. We call it our IDM advantage because it provides us attractive economics, co-optimization of design and process technology development and supply assurance. So as we engage the ecosystem more broadly, we want to preserve some of the advantages of IDM like schedule, performance and supply as we work with our strategic partners.

    我們未來的許多產品不能再被描述為內部或外部製造,或者是大芯或小芯產品。這些產品將利用混合架構方法和部署在英特爾內部和外部的 IP 領域。也就是說,我們已經並且確實從內部製造中獲得了巨大的利益。我們稱其為 IDM 優勢,因為它為我們提供了極具吸引力的經濟性、設計和工藝技術開發的協同優化以及供應保證。因此,隨著我們更廣泛地參與生態系統,我們希望在與戰略合作夥伴合作時保留 IDM 的一些優勢,例如時間表、性能和供應。

  • Finally, I want to reiterate our intention to continue investing in leading process technology development to bring future process nodes and advanced packaging capabilities to market. This is a powerful force in creating future differentiation for our products and provides tremendous option value for our business.

    最後,我想重申我們打算繼續投資於領先的工藝技術開發,以將未來的工藝節點和先進的封裝能力推向市場。這是為我們的產品創造未來差異化的強大力量,並為我們的業務提供了巨大的選擇價值。

  • As I look to the next several years of products, I am excited about the products we have coming. We are now sampling our 2021 client CPU, Alder Lake, and we'll be sampling our 2021 data center CPU, Sapphire Rapids, later in the fourth quarter. Both will deliver significant capabilities enabled by our 6 pillars of innovation, including our enhanced SuperFin technology. We have another great lineup of products in 2022, and I'm increasingly confident in the leadership our 2023 products will deliver on either Intel 7-nanometer or external foundry processes or a combination of both. I look forward to providing further update in the January call.

    當我展望未來幾年的產品時,我對我們即將推出的產品感到興奮。我們現在正在對我們的 2021 客戶端 CPU Alder Lake 進行採樣,我們將在第四季度晚些時候對我們的 2021 數據中心 CPU Sapphire Rapids 進行採樣。兩者都將提供由我們的 6 大創新支柱實現的重要功能,包括我們增強的 SuperFin 技術。我們將在 2022 年推出另一個出色的產品陣容,我對我們的 2023 年產品將在英特爾 7 納米或外部代工工藝或兩者的結合上提供的領導地位越來越有信心。我期待在一月份的電話會議中提供進一步的更新。

  • George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

    George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Bob. And good afternoon, everyone. Despite intensifying COVID-related demand impacts, particularly in our data center, enterprise and government segment, we exceeded our revenue and EPS guidance, achieved record notebook sales and saw continued growth in our cloud and comm service provider, data center segments.

    謝謝,鮑勃。大家下午好。儘管與 COVID 相關的需求影響加劇,尤其是在我們的數據中心、企業和政府部門,但我們的收入和每股收益超出了預期,實現了創紀錄的筆記本電腦銷量,並且我們的雲和通信服務提供商數據中心部門持續增長。

  • Revenue came in at $18.3 billion, down 4% year-over-year and approximately $100 million higher than guide. Data-centric revenue was $8.5 billion, down 10% year-over-year on COVID-related weakness in the DCG, enterprise and government segment, in IOTG and NSG. PC-centric revenue was $9.8 billion, up 1% year-over-year, on strong notebook PC demand in consumer and education segments and on increased supply.

    收入為 183 億美元,同比下降 4%,比預期高出約 1 億美元。由於 DCG、企業和政府部門、IOTG 和 NSG 中與 COVID 相關的疲軟,以數據為中心的收入為 85 億美元,同比下降 10%。以 PC 為中心的收入為 98 億美元,同比增長 1%,原因是消費和教育領域的筆記本電腦需求強勁以及供應增加。

  • Gross margin for the quarter was 55%, 2 points below expectations due to lower data center ASPs driven by mix shift from enterprise and government to cloud and lower PC client ASPs on increased demand for consumer and education PCs. Operating margin was 29%, down 1 point versus our expectations. Q3 EPS was $1.11, slightly better than our guide as lower spending and the impact of our accelerated share repurchase more than offset lower client and data center ASPs.

    本季度毛利率為 55%,比預期低 2 個百分點,原因是從企業和政府向雲的混合轉變導致數據中心 ASP 下降,以及消費者和教育 PC 需求增加導致 PC 客戶端 ASP 下降。營業利潤率為 29%,比我們的預期下降 1 個百分點。第三季度每股收益為 1.11 美元,略好於我們的指導,因為較低的支出和我們加速股票回購的影響抵消了較低的客戶和數據中心平均售價。

  • In Q3, we generated $8.2 billion in operating cash flow and invested $3.7 billion in CapEx, resulting in $4.5 billion of free cash flow. We paid $1.4 billion to shareholders in dividends and initiated an accelerated share repurchase program for an aggregate of $10 billion of common stock. Following settlement of these agreements by the end of 2020, we'll have repurchased a total of approximately $17.6 billion in shares as part of the planned $20 billion share repurchase program announced in October 2019. We intend to complete the $2.4 billion balance and return to historical capital return practices when markets stabilize. Year-to-date, operating cash flow is $25.5 billion, up 10% year-over-year; and year-to-date free cash flow is $15.1 billion, up 29% year-over-year.

    在第三季度,我們產生了 82 億美元的運營現金流,並在資本支出上投資了 37 億美元,產生了 45 億美元的自由現金流。我們向股東支付了 14 億美元的股息,並啟動了一項加速股票回購計劃,以購買總計 100 億美元的普通股。在 2020 年底之前解決這些協議後,作為 2019 年 10 月宣布的計劃中的 200 億美元股票回購計劃的一部分,我們將回購總計約 176 億美元的股票。我們打算完成 24 億美元的餘額並返回市場穩定時的歷史資本回報做法。年初至今,經營現金流為 255 億美元,同比增長 10%;年初至今的自由現金流為 151 億美元,同比增長 29%。

  • Let's move to segment performance in Q3. Against the challenging compare, Data Center Group revenue of $5.9 billion was down 7% from the prior year. COVID-driven headwinds significantly impacted our enterprise and government segment, which was down 47% year-over-year, following 2 consecutive quarters of more than 30% growth. Our cloud and comm service provider segments were up year-over-year 15% and 4%, respectively. DCG adjacencies grew 34% as strong adoption of 5G network solutions continued. Platform units were up 4%, and ASPs were down 15% on higher networking SoC volume and weaker enterprise and government volume.

    讓我們轉向第三季度的細分錶現。與具有挑戰性的比較相比,數據中心集團的收入為 59 億美元,比上一年下降了 7%。 COVID 驅動的逆風對我們的企業和政府部門產生了重大影響,在連續兩個季度增長超過 30% 之後,該部門同比下降了 47%。我們的雲和通信服務提供商細分市場分別同比增長 15% 和 4%。隨著 5G 網絡解決方案的持續採用,DCG 鄰接增長了 34%。平台單元增長 4%,平均售價下降 15%,原因是網絡 SoC 數量增加以及企業和政府數量減少。

  • Operating margin was 32%, down 17 points year-over-year on lower revenue due to enterprise and government weakness and the ramp of 10-nanometer 5G base station SoCs and pre-PRQ reserves on our Ice Lake server product.

    營業利潤率為 32%,同比下降 17 個百分點,原因是企業和政府疲軟以及 10 納米 5G 基站 SoC 和我們 Ice Lake 服務器產品的 PRQ 前儲備的增加導致收入下降。

  • Revenue in our other data-centric businesses was down 18% year-over-year due to declines in our IOTG, NSG and PSG businesses. IOTG revenue and operating income declined 33% and 80%, respectively, on continued COVID-related demand weakness.

    由於我們的 IOTG、NSG 和 PSG 業務下滑,我們其他以數據為中心的業務收入同比下降 18%。由於與 COVID 相關的需求持續疲軟,IOTG 收入和營業收入分別下降了 33% 和 80%。

  • Mobileye returned to profitability with revenue up 2% year-over-year and 60% sequentially as global vehicle production improved. NSG revenue was down 11% year-over-year on lower volume, partially offset by higher ASPs. Operating income was $29 million for the quarter, up $528 million year-over-year on improved ASPs and reduced unit costs.

    隨著全球汽車產量的改善,Mobileye 恢復盈利,收入同比增長 2%,環比增長 60%。由於銷量下降,NSG 收入同比下降 11%,部分被較高的 ASP 所抵消。本季度營業收入為 2900 萬美元,同比增長 5.28 億美元,原因是平均售價提高和單位成本降低。

  • PSG revenue was down 19% year-over-year on weaker embedded and communications segment demand partially offset by cloud segment growth of 43%. Operating income was down 57% on the lower revenue.

    由於嵌入式和通信部門需求疲軟,PSG 收入同比下降 19%,部分被雲部門增長 43% 所抵消。由於收入下降,營業收入下降了 57%。

  • CCG revenue was $9.8 billion, up 1% year-over-year, driven by strong consumer notebook demand, offset by lower desktop volumes and declines in the modem and home gateway businesses due to divestiture. PC unit volumes were up 11% year-over-year on record notebook volume enabled by significantly increased supply. ASPs were down 6% year-on-year due to increased volume in our consumer entry in education segment.

    CCG 收入為 98 億美元,同比增長 1%,主要受消費者筆記本電腦需求強勁的推動,但被台式機銷量下降以及資產剝離導致的調製解調器和家庭網關業務下滑所抵消。由於供應顯著增加,個人電腦銷量同比增長 11%,創紀錄的筆記本銷量。由於我們在教育領域的消費者進入量增加,平均售價同比下降 6%。

  • As Bob mentioned, Tiger Lake ramp is exceeding expectation with 100 design wins expected by end of year, up from 50 forecasted in Q2. As supply increases and we see strong demand for our leadership products, including Tiger Lake, we continue to expect to regain share through year-end. Operating margin was 36%, down 8 points year-on-year on higher unit cost associated with the ramp of 10-nanometer products.

    正如 Bob 所提到的,Tiger Lake 坡道超出預期,預計到年底將有 100 項設計勝出,高於第二季度預測的 50 項。隨著供應的增加,我們看到對包括 Tiger Lake 在內的領先產品的強勁需求,我們繼續預計到年底將重新獲得份額。營業利潤率為 36%,同比下降 8 個百分點,原因是與 10 納米產品相關的單位成本上升。

  • Moving now to our fourth quarter outlook. We see many of the same dynamics in Q4 that were in place in Q3. We see continued strength in consumer notebook PCs supported by work and learn-from-home dynamics and from increased supply. We also expect continued strong Mobileye growth as design win momentum continues and the automotive industry stabilizes. We expect continued demand weakness in IOTG and NSG as well as in the enterprise and government segment of DCG. Further, our guide assumes cloud segment demand moderates as key customers enter a digestion period following multiple quarters of above trend line growth. As a result, we expect total revenue of $17.4 billion, with PC-centric down low single digits and data-centric down approximately 25% year-over-year.

    現在轉到我們的第四季度展望。我們在第四季度看到許多與第三季度相同的動態。我們看到消費筆記本電腦在工作和在家學習動態以及供應增加的支持下持續走強。我們還預計隨著設計獲胜勢頭的持續和汽車行業的穩定,Mobileye 將繼續強勁增長。我們預計 IOTG 和 NSG 以及 DCG 的企業和政府部門的需求將持續疲軟。此外,我們的指南假設隨著關鍵客戶在多個季度高於趨勢線增長後進入消化期,雲領域的需求將放緩。因此,我們預計總收入為 174 億美元,其中以 PC 為中心的收入同比下降低個位數,以數據為中心的收入同比下降約 25%。

  • Gross margin is expected to be 55%, down 5 points year-over-year on the same operating environment we saw in Q3. Relative to our prior guide for Q4, we are expecting OpEx to be down modestly in the quarter and gains from our Intel capital portfolio to be up on the order of $0.08 per share. Q4 EPS is expected to be approximately $1.10 per share. Our non-GAAP tax rate in the quarter is expected to be 14.5%.

    在我們在第三季度看到的相同運營環境下,毛利率預計為 55%,同比下降 5 個百分點。相對於我們之前的第四季度指南,我們預計本季度運營支出將小幅下降,而英特爾資本投資組合的收益將增加每股 0.08 美元。第四季度每股收益預計約為 1.10 美元。我們本季度的非公認會計原則稅率預計為 14.5%。

  • In the fourth quarter, we announced the sale of our NAND business to SK hynix. The sales consideration is $9 billion in 2 stages. The unique structure of this deal is strictly a factor of existing commitments within our long-term agreements with Micron. At the first close, subject to regulatory approvals, we will receive $7 billion and transfer the assets of the factory and the Dalian facility overall. We will continue to operate the factory for SK hynix until we can transfer the entirety of the business in 2025.

    在第四季度,我們宣布將我們的 NAND 業務出售給 SK hynix。銷售對價為 90 億美元,分兩個階段。這筆交易的獨特結構嚴格來說是我們與美光長期協議中現有承諾的一個因素。在首次交割時,經監管部門批准,我們將獲得 70 億美元,並轉讓工廠和大連工廠的全部資產。我們將繼續為 SK hynix 運營工廠,直到我們可以在 2025 年轉讓全部業務。

  • We will begin accounting for the NAND business as held for sale effective this quarter for GAAP purposes. Non-GAAP reporting will be unchanged in Q4, and then NAND will be excluded from non-GAAP reporting effective Q1 '21. Under held for sale, depreciation is suspended from the announcement date forward. The benefit of this change will not be seen until existing inventory-carrying depreciation and cost of sales is sold through. So earliest benefit will be later in Q1 '21 or Q2 '21. Capital spending for the NAND business will be shown in assets held for sale and excluded from free cash flow. This will reduce our forecasted capital spend for 2020 by approximately $300 million and raise our free cash flow by a similar amount.

    出於公認會計原則的目的,我們將開始計算本季度生效的持有待售的 NAND 業務。非 GAAP 報告將在第四季度保持不變,然後 NAND 將從 21 年第一季度生效的非 GAAP 報告中排除。持有待售,折舊自公告日起暫停。直到現有的存貨折舊和銷售成本售完,才能看到這種變化的好處。所以最早的好處將在 21 年第一季度或 21 年第二季度晚些時候。 NAND 業務的資本支出將顯示在持有待售的資產中,不包括在自由現金流中。這將使我們對 2020 年的預測資本支出減少約 3 億美元,並將我們的自由現金流增加類似數量。

  • We believe this sale is a true win-win as SK hynix will commit the necessary investment to bring this business to scale, and Intel will dispose of a nonstrategic asset to focus on our core opportunities ahead.

    我們相信此次出售是真正的雙贏,因為 SK 海力士將投入必要的投資以擴大這項業務,而英特爾將出售一項非戰略資產以專注於我們未來的核心機會。

  • Let's move to the full year. Based on our Q4 guidance, we expect revenue of $75.3 billion and EPS of $4.90, $300 million and $0.05 higher, respectively, versus our July expectations. We expect our PC business to be up mid-single digits year-over-year against the TAM that is also up mid- to high single digits year-over-year. We expect revenue from our data-centric businesses to be up mid-single digits year-over-year on strong cloud demand, NSG growth and increased 5G build-outs, offset by COVID-related weakness in our IOTG business.

    讓我們進入全年。根據我們的第四季度指引,我們預計收入將分別增加 753 億美元和每股收益 4.90 美元、3 億美元和 0.05 美元,高於我們 7 月份的預期。我們預計我們的 PC 業務將同比增長中個位數,而 TAM 也將同比增長中高個位數。我們預計,由於雲需求強勁、NSG 增長和 5G 擴建增加,我們以數據為中心的業務的收入將同比增長中個位數,這被我們的 IOTG 業務中與 COVID 相關的疲軟所抵消。

  • Gross margin is expected to be 57% for the year, down approximately 1 point versus July guidance on the mix dynamics we are seeing in both Q3 and Q4 and higher 10-nanometer volumes. Year-over-year, gross margin is most heavily impacted by higher volumes of 10-nanometer products, partially offset by higher NAND margins on ASPs and lower modem volumes from exit of that business.

    今年的毛利率預計為 57%,與 7 月份關於我們在第三季度和第四季度以及更高的 10 納米產量中看到的混合動態的指引相比下降了約 1 個百分點。與去年同期相比,毛利率受 10 納米產品銷量增加的影響最大,部分被 ASP 的 NAND 利潤率提高和該業務退出導致的調製解調器銷量下降所抵消。

  • Spending for the year is expected to be approximately $19.1 billion, down approximately $400 million year-over-year. Spending as a percentage of revenue is expected to be approximately 25% of revenue, down 2 points year-on-year due to divestitures and improved operating leverage. The resulting operating margin is approximately 31.5%, down 1.5 points year-over-year. Full year EPS of $4.90 is $0.05 above July expectations as higher equity gains, reduced spending and reduced share count are partially offset by lower COVID mix-related gross margins. We expect 2020 CapEx of approximately $14.2 billion to $14.5 billion and free cash flow of approximately $18 billion to $18.5 billion.

    今年的支出預計約為 191 億美元,同比下降約 4 億美元。由於資產剝離和經營槓桿的提高,支出佔收入的百分比預計約為收入的 25%,同比下降 2 個百分點。由此產生的營業利潤率約為 31.5%,同比下降 1.5 個百分點。全年每股收益為 4.90 美元,比 7 月份的預期高 0.05 美元,因為較高的股票收益、減少的支出和減少的股票數量被較低的 COVID 混合相關毛利率部分抵消。我們預計 2020 年資本支出約為 142 億至 145 億美元,自由現金流約為 180 億至 185 億美元。

  • To conclude, I'd like to join Bob in thanking our employees worldwide as they continue to deliver for our customers in a most challenging environment.

    最後,我想和 Bob 一起感謝我們的全球員工,因為他們在最具挑戰性的環境中繼續為我們的客戶提供服務。

  • And with that, I'll hand it back to Bob for some additional thoughts before we go to your questions. Bob?

    有了這個,在我們回答你的問題之前,我會把它交還給 Bob,讓他有一些額外的想法。鮑勃?

  • Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

    Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, George. Before we get to your questions, just a little context on the year. 2020 has been the most challenging year in my career with a global pandemic, geopolitical tensions, challenging business principles of globalization and social unrest. Despite all this, we expect to deliver the best year in our storied 52-year history.

    謝謝,喬治。在我們回答您的問題之前,請先介紹一下這一年的背景。 2020 年是我職業生涯中最具挑戰性的一年,全球大流行、地緣政治緊張局勢、具有挑戰性的全球化商業原則和社會動盪。儘管如此,我們仍希望創造我們 52 年曆史上最好的一年。

  • We plan to grow revenue by $1.8 billion more than our January expectations even as COVID has significantly impacted our business mix. Full year gross margin will be down approximately 2 points versus our January expectation, primarily driven by acceleration of 10-nanometer-based products and a change in mix of products in a work-from-home, study-from-home environment. We've maintained spending discipline even as we invest in our workforce, communities and supply chain to combat COVID, and the decision we made to sell our NAND business will drive 1 to 2 points of non-GAAP gross margin accretion next year.

    儘管 COVID 對我們的業務組合產生了重大影響,但我們計劃將收入增加 18 億美元,超過 1 月份的預期。全年毛利率將比我們 1 月份的預期下降約 2 個百分點,主要受 10 納米產品加速以及在家工作、在家學習環境中產品組合變化的推動。即使我們投資於我們的勞動力、社區和供應鏈以對抗 COVID,我們也一直保持支出紀律,我們出售 NAND 業務的決定將在明年推動 1 到 2 個非公認會計原則的毛利率增長。

  • Finally, we are mindful of your capital and made decisions to increase shareholder value through our ASR and increase dividend and prudent management of our Intel capital portfolio. Nine months into 2020, we now expect to beat our January free cash flow guide by $1.5 billion to $2 billion.

    最後,我們關注您的資本,並做出決定,通過我們的 ASR 增加股東價值,並增加股息和對我們的英特爾資本組合進行審慎管理。到 2020 年 9 個月後,我們現在預計將超過 1 月份的自由現金流指引 15 億至 20 億美元。

  • In closing, I want to thank all our employees who are working through difficult circumstances to deliver these financial commitments and support our customers.

    最後,我要感謝我們所有的員工,他們在艱難的環境中努力履行這些財務承諾並支持我們的客戶。

  • Trey Campbell - Head of IR

    Trey Campbell - Head of IR

  • All right. Thank you, Bob. Moving on now to the Q&A. (Operator Instructions) Operator, please go ahead and introduce our first caller.

    好的。謝謝你,鮑勃。現在繼續進行問答。 (操作員說明)接線員,請繼續介紹我們的第一個來電者。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our first question comes from the line of Timothy Arcuri of UBS.

    我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡(Timothy Arcuri)。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • George, I guess I wanted to double quick on gross margin. It came in obviously below for Q3, and Q4 is about 400 basis points below what it was thought to be. So there's not much of a recovery in Q4. And I certainly understand the weaker enterprise and government and mix, but you were already pretty cautious on those segments, and you already paid the price for the pre-quals on the Tiger Lake. So it sounds like that's at least on track. And Q4 revenue is about as you thought it would be 3 or so months ago, if not a bit better. So I guess I'm just trying to understand how mix could account for this much lower gross margin. I guess the point that investors are going to say is that this is competition, and it's sort of the beginning of a slippery slope. So I wonder if you can both talk about that.

    喬治,我想我想在毛利率上快速翻一番。第三季度明顯低於預期,第四季度低於預期水平約 400 個基點。因此,第四季度的複蘇並不多。而且我當然理解較弱的企業和政府以及混合,但是您在這些領域已經非常謹慎,並且您已經為虎湖的預選賽付出了代價。所以這聽起來至少是在正軌上。第四季度的收入與您認為的大約 3 個月前差不多,如果不是更好的話。所以我想我只是想了解混合如何導致毛利率低得多。我想投資者要說的是,這是競爭,它有點像滑坡的開始。所以我想知道你們是否可以談談這個。

  • George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

    George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Tim. I think in many ways, you kind of summarized what took place in the third quarter. And really, the fourth quarter is quite similar with a few changes I'll talk about. But for the 2-point falloff in the third quarter, it really was a factor of -- it turned out to be a very different quarter than we thought going in: a much heavier mix of the entry-level PC markets, both consumer and education. So you saw that in the ASPs even as we saw strong unit demand. In server, enterprise and government, after 2 consecutive quarters of growing 30%, dropped 47% year-over-year. And as you know, that's -- from an ASP standpoint, that's a very healthy market for us.

    謝謝,蒂姆。我認為在很多方面,你總結了第三季度發生的事情。實際上,第四季度非常相似,但我會談到一些變化。但對於第三季度下降 2 點而言,這確實是一個因素——事實證明這是一個與我們想像的非常不同的季度:入門級 PC 市場的混合更加嚴重,包括消費者和教育。因此,即使我們看到強勁的單位需求,您也可以在 ASP 中看到這一點。在服務器、企業和政府方面,在連續兩個季度增長 30% 之後,同比下降了 47%。如您所知,從 ASP 的角度來看,這對我們來說是一個非常健康的市場。

  • And so if you take that into account and also the fact that we saw growth in our SoCs within the data center, that actually pulls down ASPs as they have very different ASPs, obviously, than the server chips. So overall, it was really a mix story. Yes, competition -- we're seeing increased competition in the second half of the year but not different levels of competition than we thought. We feel good about where we are on the year. So I would say it's really a mix story and a very different mix than we thought going in.

    因此,如果您考慮到這一點,以及我們看到數據中心內 SoC 的增長這一事實,這實際上會降低 ASP,因為它們的 ASP 顯然與服務器芯片截然不同。所以總的來說,這真的是一個混合故事。是的,競爭——我們看到今年下半年競爭加劇,但競爭水平與我們想像的並無不同。我們對今年的成績感到滿意。所以我想說這真的是一個混合故事,與我們想像的完全不同。

  • Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

    Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

  • Maybe just to add, I was just going to say that the one other dynamic, and we -- this impacted us as we thought about the second half, but it's been even more exacerbated now, is the demand for our 10-nanometer products. We said that it was going to be -- it was up 20% in the second half from what we thought back in the beginning of the year. And now we're saying it's up north of 30% from what we thought. And that's a function of the Tiger Lake product that we launched in the third quarter, real strong demand, double the design wins that'll be on the shelf during the course of the fourth quarter and the ramping of 3 high volume manufacturing fabs to enable more and more supply. We're going to get more 10-nanometer product than we even anticipated 90 days ago. So that's just the one added feature that -- on top of George's commentary.

    也許只是補充一下,我只是想說另一個動態,我們 - 這在我們考慮下半年的時候影響了我們,但現在更加惡化,是對我們 10 納米產品的需求。我們說它會在下半年比我們年初的想法增長 20%。現在我們說它比我們想像的高出 30%。這是我們在第三季度推出的 Tiger Lake 產品的一個功能,真正強勁的需求,將在第四季度上架的設計勝利翻倍,以及 3 家大批量製造工廠的產能增加,以實現越來越多的供應。我們將獲得比 90 天前預期的更多的 10 納米產品。所以這只是喬治的評論之上的一個附加功能。

  • George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

    George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And I would say in Q4, Tim, you'll see more of the benefit of Tiger Lake as the volume there ramps further. So notebook will be a stronger contributor in Q4 than they were in Q3. And then, as we said, we think cloud digestion starts. So we expect that to fall off and put pressure on gross margins because we don't see E&G coming back. So stronger notebook, better flow through and I think it's kind of a rent-and-repeat quarter in terms of the gross margin outlook. But it's a mix story and it's one where we think, as mix normalizes, that gets healthy -- gross margin gets healthier.

    是的。我想說,在第四季度,蒂姆,隨著那裡的數量進一步增加,你會看到 Tiger Lake 的更多好處。因此,筆記本電腦在第四季度的貢獻將超過第三季度。然後,正如我們所說,我們認為雲消化開始了。因此,我們預計這會下降並對毛利率造成壓力,因為我們認為 E&G 不會捲土重來。如此強大的筆記本電腦,更好的流通量,我認為就毛利率前景而言,這是一個重複租用的季度。但這是一個混合故事,我們認為,隨著混合正常化,它變得健康——毛利率變得更健康。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

  • Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

    Harlan Sur - Senior Analyst

  • Another question on gross margin. So the positive 10-nanometer demand acceleration this year, obviously, good to see, but it is having the impact of muting your gross margins. You're still coming off the learning curve. But this should be a tailwind to gross margins in 2021 as more of the volume is going to be on 10, you're getting through the early yield learning and higher cost profile this year. Is that how the team sees it? And if so, should we expect the team to recapture the 200 basis points of gross margin next year that you gave up this year because of the more aggressive 10-nanometer pull-forward?

    關於毛利率的另一個問題。因此,今年積極的 10 納米需求加速顯然是好事,但它正在產生降低毛利率的影響。你還在學習曲線上。但這應該對 2021 年的毛利率有利,因為更多的銷量將出現在 10 日,今年你將經歷早期的收益率學習和更高的成本狀況。團隊是這麼看的嗎?如果是這樣,我們是否應該期望團隊明年重新獲得由於更積極的 10 納米拉動而放棄的 200 個基點的毛利率?

  • George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

    George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

  • The way we look at it, we said as 10-nanometer accelerated because -- as it's displacing 14-nanometer, there's a margin impact from that. So we think, even as we see cost initiatives that are improving the cost structure of 10-nanometer, the teams are working on the yield performance of 10-nanometer, all that should show up as positive. The impact of 10-nanometer will still be felt in 2021 as we guided back in May of '19. So ramping earlier has changed the mix a little bit in 2020 from what we thought, and that has put some pressure on. But 2021, right now, I wouldn't call it a tailwind. We've got other tailwinds for gross margin in 2021. For instance, our IOTG business was really hurt this year. We think that starts to come back and we get margin accretion there. Mobileye has already returned to year-over-year growth in the third quarter and as -- we see it accelerating further.

    我們看待它的方式,我們說 10 納米加速是因為 - 當它取代 14 納米時,會產生邊際影響。所以我們認為,即使我們看到成本計劃正在改善 10 納米的成本結構,團隊也在努力提高 10 納米的良率,所有這些都應該是積極的。正如我們在 19 年 5 月指導的那樣,2021 年仍將感受到 10 納米的影響。因此,較早的爬坡在 2020 年稍微改變了我們的想法,這給我們帶來了一些壓力。但是現在,2021 年,我不會稱之為順風。我們在 2021 年的毛利率還有其他順風。例如,我們的 IOTG 業務今年確實受到了傷害。我們認為這種情況開始回升,我們在那裡獲得了利潤增長。 Mobileye 在第三季度已經恢復了同比增長,並且我們看到它進一步加速。

  • We think E&G comes back. We kind of had the reverse of what you normally see in enterprise and government, which is weak first half, strong second half, and we saw a very strong first half and a weak second half. So we think normalization is good. We think cloud digestion will take some time, but we expect cloud to be back acquiring in 2021. So -- and then on top of that, we have the modem exit. So as we sell fewer and fewer modems, that's actually margin accretive. And then, of course, we announced the NAND exit, which we think gives us about a 1- to 2-point tailwind on gross margins next year.

    我們認為 E&G 會捲土重來。我們有點與您通常在企業和政府中看到的相反,上半年疲軟,下半年強勁,我們看到上半年非常強勁,下半年疲軟。所以我們認為標準化是好的。我們認為雲消化需要一些時間,但我們預計雲將在 2021 年重新獲得。所以 - 然後最重要的是,我們有調製解調器退出。因此,隨著我們銷售的調製解調器越來越少,這實際上是在增加利潤。然後,當然,我們宣布退出 NAND,我們認為這會給我們明年的毛利率帶來 1 到 2 個百分點的順風。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Blayne Curtis of Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Blayne Curtis。

  • Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Blayne Peter Curtis - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • Maybe just really down the gross margin. Just looking at the op margin in DCG, 32%, I think that's the lowest ever. So maybe if you can just redo that answer, I guess, just focusing on gross margins in data center because that's an area that you haven't yet really ramped 10-nanometer. So I'm just kind of curious how to look at that business as that layers in and also you fold Optane in later.

    也許只是真的降低了毛利率。僅看看 DCG 的運營利潤率 32%,我認為這是有史以來最低的。所以也許你可以重做這個答案,我猜,只關注數據中心的毛利率,因為這是一個你還沒有真正提升 10 納米的領域。所以我只是有點好奇如何看待這項業務,因為它是分層的,而且你稍後也會將 Optane 折疊起來。

  • George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

    George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Obviously, what we saw was lower revenue than we expected there with the falloff of E&G. And as you look at the ASP dynamics of that -- of such a steep drop-off, a 47% year-over-year drop-off, that certainly has an impact on gross margin, which flows right through to operating margin. On operating margin, too, we've also added the Habana business into the spending profile. So you've seen some growth in spending as we're investing in the AI area. And then again, overall, we think as E&G comes back and cloud recovers, we should be seeing strong margin performance out of DCG.

    是的。顯然,隨著 E&G 的下滑,我們看到的收入低於我們的預期。當你看到 ASP 的動態時——如此急劇的下降,同比下降 47%,這肯定會對毛利率產生影響,毛利率直接流向營業利潤率。在營業利潤率方面,我們還將 Habana 業務添加到支出配置文件中。因此,隨著我們在 AI 領域的投資,您已經看到支出有所增長。再說一次,總的來說,我們認為隨著 E&G 的回歸和雲的恢復,我們應該會看到 DCG 的強勁利潤率表現。

  • Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

    Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

  • But as George mentioned earlier, the -- year-on-year, you have a 15% ASP decline. But when you look at within the segments of the business, cloud growth continued to be really strong. So on a year-to-date basis, cloud is up mid-30%, so cloud performance relatively strong. Our comms business, real strong volume growth as the role we play at network and the edge becomes larger. Yet, that strong unit volume growth is much lower ASPs than our kind of normal cloud and enterprise business. And then third, with the enterprise decline being so big where the ASPs have a tendency to be higher prices, the combination of that mix effect, mix alone of the business, drove the lion's share of the 15% ASP decline.

    但正如喬治之前提到的,--同比,你的平均售價下降了 15%。但是,當您查看業務的各個部分時,雲增長仍然非常強勁。因此,從年初至今,雲計算增長了 30% 左右,因此云計算性能相對強勁。隨著我們在網絡和邊緣發揮的作用變得更大,我們的通信業務真正強勁的銷量增長。然而,強勁的單位銷量增長遠低於我們普通的雲和企業業務的平均售價。第三,由於企業的降幅如此之大,而平均售價有更高的價格趨勢,這種混合效應的組合,單獨的業務組合,推動了 15% 的平均售價下降的最大份額。

  • So mix dynamics that George flagged but with strong cloud growth -- I think the reality of E&G is -- remember, we were up 34% through the first 6 months of the year. So when you take into account third quarter volume, on a year-to-date basis, the E&G business is flat in a fairly challenging macro environment. So all told, I think what we saw in the course of the second quarter going into the third quarter, inventory levels in the channel were probably relatively high. They bled off quite a bit in the third quarter. And therefore, year-to-date at being flat, it's probably in line with where we were when we started the year with a stronger first half, a weaker second half.

    因此,George 指出了混合動力,但云增長強勁——我認為 E&G 的現實是——記住,我們在今年前 6 個月增長了 34%。因此,當您考慮到第三季度的銷量時,從年初至今的基礎上,E&G 業務在相當具有挑戰性的宏觀環境中持平。總而言之,我認為我們在第二季度到第三季度的過程中看到,渠道中的庫存水平可能相對較高。他們在第三節失足了很多。因此,年初至今持平,這可能與我們年初時上半年強勁,下半年疲軟時的情況一致。

  • George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

    George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And another way to look at it, Harlan, is we kind of had a year that was -- compared to our normal seasonality, we had our strong second half of the year and the first half, very, very big prints on operating margin for DCG year-over-year. And what we're seeing is, as we forecasted, a weaker second half and which looks a lot more like what we would normally see in the first half.

    是的。哈倫,另一種看待它的方式是,與我們正常的季節性相比,我們有一年的強勁表現,下半年和上半年的營業利潤率非常非常大DCG 同比增長。正如我們所預測的那樣,我們所看到的是下半年的疲軟,看起來更像我們通常在上半年看到的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of John Pitzer of Crédit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer。

  • John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

    John William Pitzer - MD, Global Technology Strategist and Global Technology Sector Head

  • Bob, I appreciate your comments around 7-nanometer and your ability to kind of want to maintain maximum flexibility around your 7-nanometer decisions. But there comes a point in time where your own lead time for capacity or a foundry's need for lead time for capacity forces the decision upon you, guys. So I'm wondering if you could just help us understand the window close to when you have to make a decision on 7, and if you could help us understand kind of the scenarios we should be thinking through. Is this as much as an all or nothing? Or are we talking percentages here? And how should we think about that?

    Bob,我很欣賞您對 7 納米的評論,以及您希望圍繞 7 納米決策保持最大靈活性的能力。但是在某個時間點,您自己的產能交付週期或代工廠對產能交付週期的需求會迫使您做出決定,伙計們。因此,我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您必須在 7 上做出決定的時間窗口,以及您是否可以幫助我們了解我們應該考慮的情景類型。這是全有還是全無?或者我們在這裡談論百分比?我們應該如何考慮呢?

  • Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

    Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Thanks, John. I mean, first, we have a very strong product lineup for '20, '21 and '22 for client, for server and for IoT. So we feel very good about what our lineup looks like over the next 3 years. And not just for the CPU but for the GPU, for AI and for FPGA. So the next 3 years, we feel very good about the product lineup. So as we think about 2023 and beyond, we're looking at the products required at that time. And we're evaluating our process versus other third-party processes. And the fundamental criteria, as you could imagine, are, at the macro level, fairly, fairly simple: schedule and schedule predictability, product performance and economics with supply chain, our ability to control the supply chain best we possibly can.

    是的。謝謝,約翰。我的意思是,首先,我們有非常強大的 '20、'21 和 '22 產品陣容,用於客戶端、服務器和物聯網。所以我們對未來 3 年的陣容感覺非常好。不僅適用於 CPU,還適用於 GPU、AI 和 FPGA。所以接下來的3年,我們對產品陣容感覺非常好。因此,當我們考慮 2023 年及以後,我們正在研究當時所需的產品。我們正在評估我們的流程與其他第三方流程。正如你所想像的,基本標准在宏觀層面相當、相當簡單:進度和進度可預測性、產品性能和供應鏈經濟性、我們盡可能控制供應鏈的能力。

  • So the criteria are relatively simple, and we're evaluating each one of those kind of as we exit 2020 and really early 2021 because that's the time that we'll have to make the determination as to whether we're buying more 7-nanometer equipment or whether a third-party foundry would be adding that capacity. So we're going through this process, really looking at our capabilities, others' capabilities around those 3 fundamental criteria. I would say since the last time we spoke, our 7-nanometer process is doing very well. I mean last time we spoke, we had identified an excursion. We had root caused it. We thought we knew the fix. Now we've deployed the fix and made wonderful progress. But nonetheless, we're still going to evaluate third-party foundry versus our foundry across those 3 criteria. And the call will be towards the end of this year, early next year.

    所以標準相對簡單,我們會在 2020 年和 2021 年初退出時評估每一種,因為那時我們必須決定是否購買更多 7 納米設備或第三方代工廠是否會增加該容量。所以我們正在經歷這個過程,真正關注我們的能力,其他人圍繞這三個基本標準的能力。我想說自從我們上次談話以來,我們的 7 納米工藝做得很好。我的意思是上次我們談話時,我們已經確定了一次短途旅行。我們有根導致它。我們認為我們知道解決方法。現在我們已經部署了修復程序並取得了驚人的進展。但儘管如此,我們仍將根據這三個標準評估第三方代工廠與我們的代工廠。電話將在今年年底,明年初進行。

  • On your last question, John, about is it an all or nothing, no. I'd say it's -- we look at server or client. We look at big core, small core. We look at some segments of the stack within the product line. So we're looking at a variety of different parameters in terms of the makeup of the business. And as I said in my prepared remarks, it's probably not an all or nothing, it's probably a mix in terms of the best path to ensure that we had a predictable cadence of leadership products for '23 and '24 like, we believe, we will have in '20, '21 and '22. And we'll learn a lot more as we have in the last 90 days, during the course of the next 90 days, and I think be in a pretty good position to lay out our decision in the January time frame.

    關於你的最後一個問題,約翰,關於它是全有還是全無,不。我想說的是——我們看服務器或客戶端。我們看大核心,小核心。我們查看產品線中堆棧的某些部分。因此,我們正在研究業務構成方面的各種不同參數。正如我在準備好的評論中所說,這可能不是全有或全無,它可能是確保我們在 23 和 24 年擁有可預測的領導產品節奏的最佳途徑的混合,我們相信,我們將在'20,'21和'22。在過去的 90 天裡,在接下來的 90 天裡,我們會學到很多東西,我認為在 1 月份的時間框架內製定我們的決定是一個很好的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Joe Moore of Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the server road map. And in particular, you've talked about Ice Lake being kind of more volume early part of next year and Sapphire Rapids also next year. It seems like a pretty quick transition to what seems like a pretty important Sapphire Rapids launch. Can you just talk about how that's going to play out with those 2 being so close together?

    我想知道你是否可以談談服務器路線圖。特別是,你談到明年年初冰湖的銷量會更大,明年也會有藍寶石急流。這似乎是一個非常重要的藍寶石急流發射的快速過渡。你能談談在這兩個如此接近的情況下這將如何發揮作用嗎?

  • Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

    Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

  • Well, I mean, it's -- I think, Joe, it's been a fairly consistent road map over the course of the last 18 months or so with Cascade Lake now, Ice Lake end of year, beginning to ramp early next year, a very -- in our mind, a very attractive and enhanced feature set for Sapphire Rapids at the end of the year kind of 4 quarters later, which is kind of the road map that we've laid out for our customers over the course of the last 18 months. And I think people are pretty excited about getting Ice Lake out and equally excited about the enhanced feature set of Sapphire Rapids at the end of the year. So as long as we got it fairly laid out, predictable, so our customers can plan effectively, we want to be able to continue to do that cadence of leadership products kind of in sequence, in a 4-, maybe 5-quarter kind of time frame. And this is not dramatically different than how we've approached it in the past.

    嗯,我的意思是,這是 - 我認為,喬,在過去 18 個月左右的時間裡,這是一個相當一致的路線圖,現在 Cascade Lake,今年年底的 Ice Lake,明年年初開始增加,非常-- 在我們看來,Sapphire Rapids 會在 4 個季度後的年底為 Sapphire Rapids 提供非常有吸引力和增強的功能集,這是我們在過去的過程中為我們的客戶制定的路線圖18 個月。而且我認為人們對在年底推出 Ice Lake 感到非常興奮,同樣對 Sapphire Rapids 的增強功能集感到興奮。因此,只要我們將其佈局合理、可預測,這樣我們的客戶就可以有效地計劃,我們希望能夠繼續按順序,以 4 季度,也許 5 季度的方式推出領先產品的節奏。大體時間。這與我們過去的處理方式並沒有太大的不同。

  • Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

    Joseph Lawrence Moore - Executive Director

  • Okay. So just to make sure I understand, so Sapphire Rapids will be sort of more volume in kind of early 2022? Or is it -- am I trying to cut it too finely there?

    好的。所以只是為了確保我理解,所以 Sapphire Rapids 會在 2022 年初的時候變得更多?或者是——我是不是想把它剪得太細?

  • Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

    Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

  • You're doing a little too fine cutting it.

    你剪得有點過分了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Tristan Gerra of Baird.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Tristan Gerra。

  • Tristan Gerra - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Tristan Gerra - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Under a scenario where TSMC starts building leading node processes for you, and I understand you haven't, you still have to reevaluate all of this over the next 90 days, can you explain how easy it is to transition from TSMC back to your internal manufacturing, how comfortable that is? And would that be for existing type of architecture or more like chiplet type of architectures?

    在台積電開始為您構建領先節點工藝的情況下,我知道您還沒有,您仍然需要在接下來的 90 天內重新評估所有這些,您能否解釋從台積電過渡回您的內部是多麼容易製造,有多舒服?那是針對現有類型的架構還是更像小芯片類型的架構?

  • Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

    Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

  • Yes. It's a good question. I mean I gave kind of the criteria around should we, under what circumstances, go out more of schedule, predictability, performance and of economics, if you will, the bookend on that -- on those 3 criteria, really around, one, the ease of portability of our technologies to go out. And I would say we feel very confident in the ability of us being able to port to TSMC. And the other bookend is, in the event that we go out, what's the ease in which we can port back if we conclude that's the best alternative for either core products or chiplets.

    是的。這是個好問題。我的意思是我給出了一些標準,我們應該在什麼情況下,更多地超出時間表、可預測性、性能和經濟性,如果你願意的話,關於這三個標準的書擋,真的是圍繞,一個,我們的技術便於攜帶外出。我想說我們對我們能夠移植到台積電的能力非常有信心。另一個書擋是,如果我們出去,如果我們得出結論,這是核心產品或小芯片的最佳選擇,我們可以輕鬆地移植回來。

  • I would just say that we feel increasingly confident that, yes, in fact, if we conclude going out, makes sense that we can. And also that in the event we want to port back in, we can as well. And that's -- those are general observations around the bookend questions. And then there's a bit of complexity based on the nature of the product, whether it's more big core versus more synthesizable cores. So we can go out, we can come back in and we're in the process of evaluating the should we and under what circumstances.

    我只想說,我們越來越有信心,是的,事實上,如果我們得出結論,我們可以這樣做是有道理的。而且,如果我們想重新移植,我們也可以。那就是——這些是圍繞書擋問題的一般性觀察。然後根據產品的性質有一點複雜性,無論是更大的核心還是更可合成的核心。所以我們可以出去,我們可以回來,我們正在評估我們應該在什麼情況下。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 New Street Research 的 Pierre Ferragu。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • Can you hear me well?

    你聽得清楚嗎?

  • George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

    George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

  • We can now.

    我們現在可以。

  • Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

    Pierre C. Ferragu - Global Team Head of Technology Infrastructure

  • Okay. That's great. So yes, I'd like to go back to the PC market and the comments you've made on market share. So it looks like you're gaining -- regaining market share in the lower end of the market, in the notebook market. How are things in the higher end of the market, like, for the gaming community? How did things play out in Q3? And how do you see them playing out over the next year?

    好的。那太棒了。所以是的,我想回到個人電腦市場和你對市場份額的評論。所以看起來你正在獲得——在筆記本市場的低端市場重新獲得市場份額。對於遊戲社區來說,高端市場的情況如何?第三季度的情況如何?你如何看待他們明年的表現?

  • Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

    Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So I'll start. George, you can pile on. I mean, first, we're up 9% unit volume year-to-date, 11% unit volume in the third quarter with a TAM that's probably up in the high single digits at this stage. So when we came into the year, we want to, number one, increase our capacity, which we have, in fact, done; number two, launch some very good products; and then number three, with that incremental capacity and improved product road map, to begin to recapture share. And I would say that we feel -- we don't exactly know how Q3 TAM is going to be, but I think on a year-to-date basis, we feel like we've gained back some market share primarily by protecting the higher end and recapturing the small core.

    是的。所以我要開始了。喬治,你可以繼續加油。我的意思是,首先,我們今年迄今為止的單位銷量增長了 9%,第三季度的單位銷量增長了 11%,TAM 在現階段可能達到了高個位數。因此,當我們進入這一年時,首先,我們想增加我們的產能,事實上,我們已經做到了;第二,推出一些非常好的產品;然後是第三,隨著容量的增加和產品路線圖的改進,開始重新奪回市場份額。我想說的是,我們感覺——我們並不完全知道第三季度的 TAM 會如何,但我認為從年初至今,我們覺得我們主要通過保護高端並重新奪回小核心。

  • And I think those have all been a little bit exacerbated by a market that is much stronger than we anticipated, number one. And then as George flagged, this massive mix shift that happened really in the third quarter and we expect to continue in the fourth quarter to more mobile notebook products where we think we've got a wonderful product offering. So in the aggregate, we're looking at a TAM in the high -- mid- to high single-digit growth for the year. Our volume through 9 months is 9%. We got really good ramp of our 10-nanometer product in the holiday, and we think we've got a nice supply chain kind of up and down the stack as we go into the holiday season.

    而且我認為這些都因市場比我們預期的要強得多,排名第一。然後正如喬治指出的那樣,這種大規模的混合轉變確實發生在第三季度,我們預計第四季度將繼續向更多移動筆記本產品發展,我們認為我們已經提供了出色的產品。因此,總的來說,我們正在關註今年的高 - 中高個位數增長的 TAM。我們過去 9 個月的交易量為 9%。我們的 10 納米產品在假日期間得到了非常好的提升,我們認為隨著我們進入假日季節,我們有一個很好的供應鏈上下堆疊。

  • George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

    George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. And we said in the first half of the year, we had seen share in the entry markets. We just didn't have the capacity to serve both the higher end PC markets and the entry level. We're seeing -- we expected some mix shift clearly not at the level that we saw in Q3 and Q4. So we're getting the opportunity to recover share in this space. And quite frankly, we could have sold -- if we -- everything we could have produced on top of what we produce we could have sold in Q3, and we're seeing super strong demand coming into Q4 as we're ramping more capacity, so we feel very good about starting to recover and grow that share in the second half that we -- where we were down in the first half in the entry market.

    是的。我們在上半年說過,我們已經看到了進入市場的份額。我們只是沒有能力同時服務於高端 PC 市場和入門級市場。我們看到了——我們預計一些混合轉變顯然不會達到我們在第三季度和第四季度看到的水平。所以我們有機會在這個領域恢復份額。坦率地說,我們本可以出售——如果我們——在第三季度可以出售的產品之上,我們可以生產的所有產品,而且我們看到第四季度的需求非常強勁,因為我們正在增加更多的產能,所以我們對在下半年開始恢復和增長我們的份額感到非常高興——我們在上半年進入市場的時候是下降的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Chris Danely of Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Danely。

  • Christopher Brett Danely - Research Analyst

    Christopher Brett Danely - Research Analyst

  • Actually, just a clarification first and then a longer-term question on gross margin. So when you talked about the reasons for the pressure on gross margin as far as mix goes, I just want to make sure that there's no, I guess, aggressive pricing on your part or no pricing pressure from the competition. And then my longer-term question is, it seems like some of these headwinds on pricing, such as mix and more comm revenue, are not going away. So do you think longer term, we should look at your gross margins as maybe being -- the range being a little bit lower than what you've indicated previously? Or is that going to be offset by the NAND situation? Maybe just a little clarification there.

    實際上,這只是一個澄清,然後是一個關於毛利率的長期問題。因此,當您談到混合業務對毛利率造成壓力的原因時,我只是想確保您沒有激進的定價,或者沒有來自競爭的定價壓力。然後我的長期問題是,似乎這些定價方面的一些不利因素,例如混合和更多的通信收入,並沒有消失。所以你認為從長遠來看,我們應該把你的毛利率看作是——這個範圍比你之前指出的要低一點?還是會被 NAND 的情況所抵消?也許只是有一點澄清。

  • George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

    George S. Davis - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. Maybe I'll start, and Bob may want to throw in some things. So on the pricing headwinds, it's largely mix. Again, we're seeing the competitive environment that we expected to see. It's not to say that there isn't some pricing effect from competition, but the change is really dominated by the mix change. And in terms of long-term implications, I think we're in a very unusual circumstance. So just the dynamics of our year, kind of a 55-45 year, and the radically different mix that we saw. And both of those were really responding to COVID related to demand dynamics. So I think I wouldn't draw too many long-term implications of this. I mean there's -- our focus is on having the most competitive profile in each of these segments. And we think we'll see a normalization to mix that probably is more like '19 than '20 over the long run.

    當然。也許我會開始,Bob 可能想加入一些東西。因此,在定價逆風中,它在很大程度上是混合的。同樣,我們看到了我們期望看到的競爭環境。並不是說競爭沒有定價效應,但變化確實是由組合變化主導的。就長期影響而言,我認為我們處於一個非常不尋常的情況。所以只是我們這一年的動態,一種 55-45 年,以及我們看到的完全不同的組合。兩者都真正響應了與需求動態相關的 COVID。所以我認為我不會對此有太多的長期影響。我的意思是——我們的重點是在這些細分市場中擁有最具競爭力的形象。我們認為,從長遠來看,我們將看到混合的正常化,這可能更像是 19 年而不是 20 年。

  • Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

    Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

  • Yes. And I would just add, as we exit the year, and I think it was Joe that asked this a little bit earlier, we go into 2021 with just some real tailwinds and some headwinds. But net-net, I think they're reasonably well balanced relative to the longer-term outlook that we gave you back in May '19. And just to highlight the tailwinds, and you mentioned one of them, we made decisions on some of the lower-margin businesses in our portfolio, obviously, this week's announcement on NAND, the decline that we expect to see in modem volume as we go into '21, we exited home device connected business middle of the year. So the mix of the business is a net tailwind as we enter 2021.

    是的。我想補充一點,當我們結束這一年時,我認為是喬早些時候提出了這個問題,我們進入 2021 年時只有一些真正的順風和一些逆風。但是淨淨值,我認為它們相對於我們在 19 年 5 月給你的長期前景相當平衡。只是為了強調順風,你提到了其中一個,我們對我們投資組合中的一些利潤率較低的業務做出了決定,很明顯,本週關於 NAND 的公告,我們預計調製解調器數量會隨著我們的發展而下降進入 21 年,我們在年中退出了家庭設備連接業務。因此,當我們進入 2021 年時,業務組合是一個淨順風。

  • Secondly, we've made really good progress on 10-nanometer yields during the course of this year. And the expectation as we mature going into next year on 10-nanometer will, in fact -- we expect will, in fact, improve. And then third, we will still have a significant portion of our volume in 2021 that will be on 14-nanometer, and that will have an increasing portion of the equipment fully depreciated. So we have some real tailwinds in -- these are things that we knew of, anticipated 6, 12, 18 months ago. So those are all kind of in line. The only real net positive is the decision on NAND.

    其次,今年我們在 10 納米產量方面取得了非常好的進展。事實上,隨著我們對 10 納米技術的成熟進入明年,我們的預期實際上會有所改善。第三,到 2021 年,我們仍有很大一部分產量將是 14 納米,並且將有越來越多的設備完全折舊。所以我們有一些真正的順風 - 這些是我們在 6、12、18 個月前就已經知道的事情。所以這些都是一致的。唯一真正的淨積極因素是對 NAND 的決定。

  • And then we have some headwinds. When we migrate more and more of our volume from 14 to 10, that will work against us as we anticipated, as we planned. And the competitive environment from where we are today versus what we had assumed when we laid our longer-term numbers at, not dramatically different. So I think the biggest wildcard now is mix. And that obviously surprised us a little bit because in the second half, I should say, just the mix of the dynamics of the business that I'd characterize are more COVID-related and what are the implications of that on '21 and beyond. But I'd say there's probably as much a chance of positive tailwinds as opposed to negative headwinds on that front. So we've got some real tailwinds, some headwinds. Net-net, maybe I'd characterize as maybe a little better positioned today than where we were when we laid it out in May of 2019.

    然後我們遇到了一些不利因素。當我們將越來越多的捲從 14 遷移到 10 時,這將如我們預期的那樣對我們不利,正如我們計劃的那樣。我們今天所處的競爭環境與我們在確定長期數據時所假設的環境並沒有太大的不同。所以我認為現在最大的通配符是混合。這顯然讓我們有點驚訝,因為在下半年,我應該說,我所描述的業務動態的組合與 COVID 更相關,這對 21 年及以後有什麼影響。但我想說,正面順風的機會可能與正面逆風的機會一樣多。所以我們有一些真正的順風,一些逆風。 Net-net,也許我認為今天的定位可能比我們在 2019 年 5 月佈局時的位置要好一些。

  • Trey Campbell - Head of IR

    Trey Campbell - Head of IR

  • Bob, maybe just a couple of thoughts, if you want to close the call out.

    Bob,如果你想結束通話,也許只是幾個想法。

  • Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

    Robert H. Swan - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Well, first, thanks for joining us. I'd just say through a very challenging market environment, we expect to grow revenue this year by $1.8 billion and free cash flow by $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion above what we laid out back at the beginning of the year. So despite all the inherent challenges, we'll deliver a stronger year, and we'll have a better product portfolio as we go into next year.

    是的。好吧,首先,感謝您加入我們。我只想說,在一個非常具有挑戰性的市場環境中,我們預計今年的收入將增加 18 億美元,自由現金流將比年初的計劃增加 15 億至 25 億美元。因此,儘管存在所有固有的挑戰,但我們將實現更強勁的一年,並且隨著我們進入明年,我們將擁有更好的產品組合。

  • Second, we are relentlessly focused on delivering a predictable cadence of leadership products. And as I said in the prepared remarks, we have a great product lineup through 2022. The fact that we're working really hard on '23 at this stage, I think, is a relatively good position to be in.

    其次,我們不懈地專注於提供可預測的領導產品節奏。正如我在準備好的評論中所說,到 2022 年,我們的產品陣容非常棒。我認為,我們在 23 年這個階段非常努力地工作,這是一個相對較好的位置。

  • Third, we continue to extend our reach and accelerate our growth by meeting these key technology inflections such as cloud, 5G, intelligent and autonomous edge, computing and AI. So I think we're positioning more and more of our resources into real strong growth characteristics.

    第三,我們通過滿足雲、5G、智能和自主邊緣、計算和人工智能等關鍵技術的轉變,繼續擴大業務範圍並加速增長。因此,我認為我們正在將越來越多的資源用於真正強勁的增長特徵。

  • And last thing I'd just say is we're incredibly grateful for the dedication and resiliency of Intel employees, the partners that we work with and our collective efforts to continue to retain a health and safe environment while delivering for our customers. So we are collectively inspired by our purpose, which is simply to create world-changing technologies that enrich the lives of every person on Earth. And I can't imagine a time where that purpose could be more important than it has been during the course of this year. So thanks for joining us, and we'll talk to you soon.

    最後我要說的是,我們非常感謝英特爾員工、與我們合作的合作夥伴的奉獻精神和彈性,以及我們在為客戶提供服務的同時繼續保持健康和安全環境的集體努力。因此,我們的目標共同激發了我們的靈感,即創造改變世界的技術,豐富地球上每個人的生活。我無法想像這個目標會比今年更重要。感謝您加入我們,我們會盡快與您聯繫。

  • Trey Campbell - Head of IR

    Trey Campbell - Head of IR

  • Thanks, Bob, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call. With that, operator, let's go ahead and close the call.

    謝謝 Bob,也謝謝大家加入電話會議。有了這個,接線員,讓我們繼續並關閉通話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。