英特爾 (INTC) 2017 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Intel Corporation Q1 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加英特爾公司2017年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Mark Henninger, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

現在我謹向大家介紹今天會議的主持人，投資者關係主管馬克‧亨寧格先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Crystal, and welcome, everyone, to Intel's First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. By now, you should have received a copy of our earnings release and the CFO commentary that goes along with it. If you've not received both documents, they're available on our investor website, intc.com.

謝謝Crystal，歡迎各位參加英特爾2017年第一季財報電話會議。現在，您應該已經收到我們的獲利報告以及財務長的評論。如果您尚未收到這兩份文件，它們可以在我們的投資者網站 intc.com 上找到。

I'm joined today by Brian Krzanich, our CEO; and Bob Swan, our Chief Financial Officer. In a moment, we'll hear brief remarks from both of them, followed by Q&A.

今天和我一起的有我們的執行長布萊恩·科再奇和財務長鮑勃·斯旺。稍後我們將聽到他們兩人的簡短發言，然後是問答環節。

Before we begin, let me remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and as such, does include risks and uncertainties. Please refer to our press release for more information on the specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

在開始之前，請允許我提醒大家，今天的討論包含基於我們目前所見環境的前瞻性陳述，因此確實存在風險和不確定性。有關可能導致實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的具體風險因素的更多信息，請參閱我們的新聞稿。

A brief reminder that this quarter we have provided both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Today, we'll be speaking to the non-GAAP financial measures when describing our consolidated results. The CFO commentary and earnings release available on intc.com include the full GAAP and non-GAAP reconciliations.

簡單提醒一下，本季我們同時提供了GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。今天，我們將結合非GAAP財務指標來介紹我們的合併績效。tc.com 上提供的財務長評論和收益報告包括完整的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 調節表。

And finally, I'd like to draw your attention to a change we've made to our guidance practices for the current quarter and full year. Beginning with today's earnings release for the first quarter of 2017, our business outlook will speak only as of the date of our quarterly earnings releases, bringing our practices in line with virtually all of our peers.

最後，我想請大家注意我們對本季和全年業績指引做法所做的調整。從今天發布的 2017 年第一季財報開始，我們的業務展望將僅反映季度收益報告發布之日的情況，使我們的做法與幾乎所有同行保持一致。

With that, let me hand it over to Brian.

那麼，現在讓我把麥克風交給布萊恩。

Thanks, Mark. The first quarter marked a great start to the year. Coming off both Q4 and full year records in 2016, Q1 revenue was up 7% over the first quarter of last year, a record Q1. And operating margin was up 20%. It was another milestone in our transformation from a PC-centric company to one that powers the cloud and billions of smart and connected devices. Average selling prices or ASPs grew meaningfully across our PC, data center and IoT business, reflecting the market's demand for performance and our segmentation strategy. And our memory business set an all-time record revenue.

謝謝你，馬克。第一季標誌著今年開局良好。繼 2016 年第四季和全年創紀錄之後，第一季營收比去年第一季成長了 7%，創下第一季紀錄。營業利益率提高了20%。這是我們從以個人電腦為中心的公司轉型為一家為雲端運算和數十億智慧互聯設備提供支援的公司過程中的又一個里程碑。我們的個人電腦、資料中心和物聯網業務的平均售價（ASP）均實現了顯著成長，這反映了市場對效能的需求以及我們的細分策略。我們的記憶體業務也創下了歷史新高的收入紀錄。

At our investor meeting in February, I outlined our strategy to make Intel the driving force of the data revolution across technologies and industries. I also detailed our top 4 priorities for the year: growing the data center and adjacencies; ensuring a strong and healthy PC business; growing IoT and devices; and executing flawlessly in memory and FPGAs. That's the framework we're using to measure our success throughout the year, and I'd like to take a few minutes to assess our progress so far.

在二月的投資者會議上，我概述了我們的策略，讓英特爾成為推動各技術和產業數據革命的驅動力。我還詳細介紹了我們今年的四大優先事項：發展資料中心及其周邊業務；確保個人電腦業務的強勁健康發展；發展物聯網和設備；以及在記憶體和FPGA方面完美執行。這就是我們用來衡量全年成功與否的框架，我想花幾分鐘時間評估我們迄今為止的進展。

First, the data center and its adjacencies. DCG grew 6% year-over-year despite a headwind resulting from a 14-week first quarter last year. The cloud service provider revenue was up 18%. The comms service provider segment was up 12%. And enterprise was down 3%, while non-CPU adjacencies grew more than 20% across all of the segments. Data center microprocessor ASPs were up in total across every product line, underscoring the market's demand for performance to transmit, aggregate and analyze data.

首先是資料中心及其周邊區域。儘管去年第一季長達 14 週，面臨不利因素，但 DCG 仍較去年同期成長 6%。雲端服務供應商的收入成長了18%。通訊服務提供者板塊增長了 12%。企業業務下降了 3%，而非 CPU 相關業務在所有細分市場都成長了 20% 以上。資料中心微處理器的平均售價在所有產品線中均有所上漲，凸顯了市場對資料傳輸、聚合和分析效能的需求。

We're also on track for midsummer launch of our next-generation Skylake microprocessor. Skylake delivers significant performance gains across a wide range of workloads. For example, Skylake will include AVX-512 extensions that will deliver a 2x improvement in floating point operations per clock over the current generation, a gain that will have an especially high impact on HPC and artificial intelligence workloads.

我們的下一代 Skylake 微處理器也正按計劃推進，預計將於仲夏時節發布。Skylake 在各種工作負荷下都能帶來顯著的效能提升。例如，Skylake 將包含 AVX-512 擴展，與當前世代相比，每時脈週期浮點運算次數將提高 2 倍，此提升將對高效能運算和人工智慧工作負載產生特別大的影響。

And last month, we announced the formation of the artificial intelligence product group, bringing together all of our AI hardware and software assets and all of our AI engineering expertise across the company into a single group to accelerate our development of a full stack of AI solutions and explore novel approaches that will shape the next generation of AI products.

上個月，我們宣布成立人工智慧產品集團，將公司所有的人工智慧硬體和軟體資產以及人工智慧工程專業知識整合到一個集團中，以加速開發全端人工智慧解決方案，並探索塑造下一代人工智慧產品的新方法。

Second, a strong and healthy client business. Our annual cadence of product innovation, combined with a thoughtful segmentation strategy, continued to produce strong mix, which drove higher ASPs. This trend, along with our ramping modem business, drove revenue up 6% and operating margin up 60% over last year. Our expectations for the PC unit TAM haven't changed since we last talked with you. We're expecting a mid-single-digit percentage decline in the unit TAM. Our ASPs, however, are trending ahead of expectations and are contributing to our slightly higher revenue expectations for the full year.

其次，要擁有強大而健康的客戶業務。我們每年不斷推出創新產品，並輔以周詳的細分策略，持續打造強勁的產品組合，推高了平均售價。這一趨勢，加上我們數據機業務的成長，推動收入比去年增長了 6%，營業利潤率比去年增長了 60%。自從上次與您交談以來，我們對 PC 部門 TAM 的預期沒有改變。我們預期單位TAM將出現個位數百分比的下降。然而，我們的平均售價 (ASP) 成長趨勢超出預期，這也促使我們對全年營收的預期略有提高。

Third, we've highlighted the importance of growing the IoT business as we drive and benefit from the rise of billions of smart and connected devices. IOTG revenue was up 11% year-over-year, where we saw strength in our industrial, video and automotive segments. We also announced our intention to acquire Mobileye, a highly profitable, fast-growing leader in computer vision for advanced driver assistance systems and autonomous driving. The transaction will combine mobilized expertise in computer vision with Intel's expertise in high-performance computing, artificial intelligence and connectivity. Together, we expect to be the global leader in the $70 billion autonomous driving systems, data and services opportunity by accelerating auto industry innovation and delivering cloud-to-car solutions faster and at a lower cost.

第三，我們強調了發展物聯網業務的重要性，因為我們正在推動並從數十億智慧互聯設備的興起中受益。物聯網業務營收年增 11%，其中工業、視訊和汽車領域表現強勁。我們還宣布了收購 Mobileye 的計劃，Mobileye 是一家盈利能力強、增長迅速的電腦視覺領域領導者，其產品應用於高級駕駛輔助系統和自動駕駛。此交易將結合雙方在電腦視覺領域的專業技術與英特爾在高效能運算、人工智慧和連接技術方面的專長。我們共同的目標是成為價值 700 億美元的自動駕駛系統、數據和服務領域的全球領導者，透過加速汽車產業的創新，並以更快的速度和更低的成本提供雲端到車的解決方案。

And finally, we emphasized the execution in memory and FPGAs. Our memory business grew 55% year-over-year in a tight supply environment; while Fab 68, our Dalian factory, continues to ramp 3D NAND production and is delivering outstanding product yields. We also shipped our first Optane SSDs for the data center and our Optane memory solution, which is available online now and in PC OEM systems later this quarter.

最後，我們重點介紹了記憶體和FPGA中的執行情況。在供應緊張的環境下，我們的記憶體業務同比增長了 55%；同時，我們的大連工廠 Fab 68 繼續提高 3D NAND 的產量，並實現了出色的產品良率。我們還推出了首批用於資料中心的 Optane SSD 和 Optane 記憶體解決方案，目前已在線上發售，並將於本季稍後應用於 PC OEM 系統。

In our Programmable Solutions Group, revenue declined 7% over the last year after adjusting for acquisition-related accounting charges in the first quarter of 2016. The year-over-year decline was due to a weakness in the data center and comms segment, partially offset by growth in industrial and auto and consumer. We also announced an important pilot program with Alibaba cloud, the cloud computing arm of Alibaba Group, for our cloud-based FPGA acceleration service.

在我們的可程式解決方案集團，經調整 2016 年第一季與收購相關的會計費用後，去年的收入下降了 7%。年比下降是由於數據中心和通訊行業的疲軟，但工業、汽車和消費行業的成長部分抵消了這一下滑。我們也宣布與阿里巴巴集團旗下雲端運算部門阿里雲開展一項重要的試點項目，推廣我們基於雲端的 FPGA 加速服務。

We're making good progress against our 4 top priorities for the year and our transformation goals. We're improving the profitability and health of our PC business. At the same time, our investments in the data center, IoT, memory and FPGAs are paying off with significant combined revenue growth. These are purposeful investments that will position Intel for years to come. At the same time, we recognize that there is an opportunity and responsibility to be more focused and efficient as a company, a goal we can achieve without compromising our most important investments: our transformation or our future.

我們在今年的四大優先事項和轉型目標方面都取得了良好進展。我們正在提升個人電腦業務的獲利能力和健康狀況。同時，我們在資料中心、物聯網、記憶體和FPGA方面的投資也獲得了回報，帶來了顯著的綜合收入成長。這些都是有目的性的投資，將使英特爾在未來幾年佔據有利地位。同時，我們也意識到，公司有機會也有責任變得更加專注和高效，而我們可以在不損害我們最重要的投資（即轉型和未來）的前提下實現這一目標。

Focus was one of our objectives in establishing McAfee as an independent cybersecurity company just weeks ago, and it is with efficiency in mind that we're making an important commitment to our owners today. We are establishing a spending target of approximately 30% of revenue, which I expect to reach no later than 2020. Following a 1 percentage point improvement from 2015 to 2016, we forecasted an additional 1 percentage point improvement in spending in 2017, and we're now expecting to do a little better than that. While we expect revenue growth to play a role in achieving these targets, hitting this goal will require spending discipline and an intense focus on our strategic priorities.

就在幾週前，我們將 McAfee 創立為一家獨立的網路安全公司，而專注正是我們的目標之一。今天，我們懷著提高效率的理念，向我們的所有者做出一項重要承諾。我們正在製定支出目標，約為收入的 30%，我預計最遲在 2020 年就能實現這一目標。繼 2015 年至 2016 年成長 1 個百分點之後，我們預測 2017 年的支出將再成長 1 個百分點，而現在我們預期實際結果會比這更好一些。雖然我們預期收入成長將在實現這些目標中發揮作用，但要實現這一目標，需要嚴格控制支出並高度重視我們的策略重點。

To sum up the quarter, we're off to a good start and executing well against our priorities. We're delivering a steady cadence of leading products, a powerful segmentation strategy and growing profitability in our client business. We're growing our data center, IoT and memory businesses as customers see data as a competitive advantage and look to Intel as a partner that can help them create, analyze and unlock the value of massive and growing flood of data. And finally, we are committing ourselves to a set of important new productivity goals intended to create value for our owners.

總的來說，本季我們開局良好，各項優先事項都執行得很好。我們持續推出領先產品，實施強而有力的市場區隔策略，並持續提升客戶業務的獲利能力。隨著客戶將資料視為競爭優勢，並將英特爾視為能夠幫助他們創建、分析和釋放海量且不斷增長的資料價值的合作夥伴，我們的資料中心、物聯網和記憶體業務也在不斷發展壯大。最後，我們承諾實現一系列重要的全新生產力目標，旨在為我們的所有者創造價值。

With that, I'll hand it over to Bob.

這樣，我就把它交給鮑伯了。

Thanks, Brian. 2016 was a record year for Intel, and 2017 is off to a strong start. We executed on several important milestones in the quarter. We delivered on innovative product and technology road maps across the business. Fab 68 in Dalian continued its impressive ramp. And Intel's transformation continued with the planned acquisition of Mobileye for autonomous driving and the sale of the Intel Security Group.

謝謝你，布萊恩。2016年是英特爾創紀錄的一年，2017年也開局強勁。本季我們完成了幾個重要的里程碑。我們實現了公司各部門的創新產品和技術路線圖。大連的 Fab 68 繼續保持著令人矚目的成長勢頭。英特爾的轉型仍在繼續，包括計劃收購自動駕駛領域的 Mobileye 公司以及出售英特爾安全集團。

Revenue was $14.8 billion, up 7% year-over-year. Operating income was $3.9 billion, up 20% year-over-year. And earnings per share of $0.66 was up 22% year-over-year. Our EPS performance was a result of strong top line growth and significant margin expansion. First quarter operating margin was 27%, up 3 points year-over-year, and gross margin came in at 63%, up 0.5 point year-over-year. Direct spending came in at $5.4 billion, flat year-over-year and down 2 points as a percent of revenue from 2016 as we continued to execute on our restructuring program.

營收達148億美元，年增7%。營業收入為 39 億美元，年增 20%。每股收益為 0.66 美元，年增 22%。我們的每股盈餘表現得益於強勁的營收成長和顯著的利潤率擴張。第一季營業利益率為 27%，年增 3 個百分點；毛利率為 63%，較去年同期成長 0.5 個百分點。直接支出為 54 億美元，與去年持平，但佔 2016 年收入的百分比下降了 2 個百分點，因為我們繼續執行重組計劃。

Let me touch briefly on our segment performance. The Client Computing Group had revenue of $8 billion, up 6% year-over-year. We continue to see the worldwide PC supply chain operate at healthy levels. Client ASPs were up 7% year-over-year as our segmentation strategies are paying off and core mix continues to be strong. This segment had yet another quarter of significant profit growth with operating profit growing over 60% from a year ago as the business continues to execute and benefit from continued improvements in 14-nanometer unit cost, richer product mix and lower spending, primarily from the client business having a decreased share of technology development and SG&A allocations.

讓我簡要談談我們業務板塊的表現。客戶端計算集團的營收為 80 億美元，年增 6%。我們看到全球個人電腦供應鏈持續保持健康運作。客戶平均售價年增 7%，因為我們的細分策略正在奏效，核心產品組合仍然強勁。該業務板塊又一個季度實現了顯著的利潤增長，營業利潤比去年同期增長了 60% 以上，這得益於業務的持續推進，以及 14 奈米單位成本的持續改善、更豐富的產品組合和更低的支出，這主要是由於客戶業務在技術開發和銷售、一般及行政費用分配中所佔份額的減少。

The Data Center Group had revenue of $4.2 billion, up 6% year-over-year. The Data Center Group had operating profit of $1.5 billion, down 16% year-over-year. Operating margin percent was impacted by increased allocation of technology development and SG&A cost, higher product cost as we transitioned to 14-nanometer and the ramp of adjacency products.

資料中心集團營收達 42 億美元，年增 6%。資料中心集團的營業利潤為 15 億美元，較去年同期下降 16%。營業利潤率受到技術開發和銷售、管理及行政費用增加、向 14 奈米技術過渡期間產品成本上升以及鄰近產品量產的影響。

Our Internet of Things business achieved revenue of $721 million, growing 11% year-over-year, driven by strength in the industrial and video segments and continued momentum in our automotive business. Operating profit for the business was $105 million, down 15% year-over-year from increased investments in autonomous driving and increased allocation of SG&A and technology development spending.

我們的物聯網業務實現了 7.21 億美元的收入，年增 11%，這主要得益於工業和視訊領域的強勁表現以及汽車業務的持續成長勢頭。該業務的營業利潤為 1.05 億美元，年減 15%，原因是自動駕駛領域的投資增加以及銷售、一般及行政費用和技術開發支出增加。

Our memory business had record revenue of $866 million, up 55% year-over-year, with strong demand for data center SSD solutions and demand signals outpacing supply. We continue to make outstanding progress ramping Fab 68 with yields and unit costs well ahead of expectations. This segment had an operating loss of $129 million largely driven by costs related with 3D XPoint and start-up costs for our memory capacity.

我們的記憶體業務收入創下 8.66 億美元的紀錄，年增 55%，資料中心 SSD 解決方案需求強勁，需求訊號超過了供應。我們在 Fab 68 的產能提升方面繼續取得顯著進展，良率和單位成本都遠超預期。該業務部門的營業虧損為 1.29 億美元，主要原因是與 3D XPoint 相關的成本以及記憶體容量的啟動成本。

The Programmable Solutions Group had revenue of $425 million. Operating profit was $92 million, flat year-over-year after adjusting for acquisition-related impacts.

可程式解決方案集團的收入為 4.25 億美元。經調整收購相關影響後，營業利潤為 9,200 萬美元，與去年同期持平。

Our Intel Security Group business had revenue of $534 million, and operating profit was $95 million. Consistent with our prior guidance, the Intel Security transaction closed at the beginning of the second quarter.

我們的英特爾安全集團業務收入為 5.34 億美元，營業利潤為 9,500 萬美元。與我們先前的預期一致，英特爾安全業務的交易在第二季初完成。

Let me remind you of our capital allocation priorities and our progress: first, invest in our business; second, strategic acquisitions; and third, return cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. In the quarter, we generated $3.9 billion of cash from operations. We repurchased $2 billion in capital assets, paid $1.2 billion in dividends, increased the dividend by 5% and repurchased about $1.2 billion of stock. In addition, we generated approximately $400 million from the sale of some of our interest in ASML, which generated $235 million of pretax gains. At quarter-end, cash and other long-term investments was $23.7 billion, up $600 million. Total debt was $25.8 billion.

讓我提醒各位，我們的資本配置重點和進展如下：第一，投資於我們的業務；第二，進行策略性收購；第三，透過股利和股票回購向股東返還現金。本季度，我們從經營活動中產生了 39 億美元的現金流。我們回購了價值 20 億美元的資本資產，支付了 12 億美元的股息，將股息提高了 5%，並回購了價值約 12 億美元的股票。此外，我們出售了我們在 ASML 的部分股份，並獲得了約 4 億美元，其中稅前收益為 2.35 億美元。截至季末，現金及其他長期投資為 237 億美元，增加了 6 億美元。總債務為258億美元。

Today, we announced an increase in our share buyback authorization by $10 billion. Currently, we have approximately $15 billion authorization. We expect to continue to offset dilution from our stock-based programs and opportunistically reduce our outstanding share count over time.

今天，我們宣布將股票回購授權額增加100億美元。目前，我們擁有約150億美元的授權額度。我們預計將繼續透過股票增發計畫抵消股權稀釋，並伺機減少我們已發行股份的數量。

Now let me turn to guidance. First, some context. First, while we see strong momentum in client ASPs contributing to slightly higher expectations of revenue for the year, we continue to take a more cautious view of PC consumption versus third-party analysts. We feel great about our annual cadence and product innovations with new product launches planned this year, including Skylake for data center, 8th Generation Core, 64 Tier 3D NAND SSDs and further extensions to our Optane product line.

現在讓我談談指引。首先，交代一些背景資訊。首先，雖然我們看到客戶平均售價的強勁成長勢頭促使我們對今年的營收預期略有提高，但我們仍然對個人電腦消費持比第三方分析師更為謹慎的看法。我們對今年的年度節奏和產品創新感到非常滿意，今年計劃推出的新產品包括面向資料中心的 Skylake、第八代酷睿處理器、64 層 3D NAND SSD 以及 Optane 產品線的進一步擴展。

Second, we continue to see strong demand signals in our memory business through the year and our Fab 68 in Dalian ramping to be able to supply higher demand levels.

其次，我們全年持續看到記憶體業務的強勁需求訊號，大連的 Fab 68 工廠正在加緊產能，以滿足更高的需求水準。

Third, the data center business has solid momentum with the midsummer launch of our next-generation Skylake processor.

第三，隨著我們下一代 Skylake 處理器在夏季中期的推出，資料中心業務發展勢頭強勁。

And fourth, as I indicated earlier, we completed the sale of the Intel Security Group. We expect to realize a pretax gain of approximately $375 million and a tax liability of approximately $850 million. This results in a GAAP tax rate of 39% and a non-GAAP tax rate of 21% in the second quarter.

第四，正如我之前提到的，我們完成了英特爾安全集團的出售。我們預計將實現約 3.75 億美元的稅前收益和約 8.5 億美元的稅負。因此，第二季的 GAAP 稅率為 39%，非 GAAP 稅率為 21%。

And last, as Brian talked about earlier, we are committed to increasing efficiency as a company, and we are making an important commitment to our owners today. We expect to reduce our spending as a percent of revenue by 2 points from 2015 to 2017, and our plans are to continue to drive efficiencies in how we operate the business over time. We are establishing a spending target of approximately 30% of revenue, which we expect to reach no later than 2020.

最後，正如布萊恩之前提到的，我們致力於提高公司效率，今天我們向股東們做出一項重要承諾。我們預計 2015 年至 2017 年支出佔收入的比例將下降 2 個百分點，並且我們的計劃是隨著時間的推移，繼續提高業務運營效率。我們設定的支出目標約為收入的 30%，預計最晚在 2020 年實現。

As a result, we are raising our full year revenue guidance by $500 million to approximately $60 billion and our EPS guidance by $0.05 to approximately $2.85 per share. As we look to the second quarter of 2017, we are forecasting the midpoint of the revenue range of $14.4 billion, up 11% year-over-year excluding Intel Security and up 6% including Intel Security.

因此，我們將全年營收預期上調 5 億美元至約 600 億美元，每股收益預期上調 0.05 美元至約 2.85 美元。展望 2017 年第二季度，我們預測營收範圍的中位數為 144 億美元，不計入英特爾安全業務，年成長 11%；計入英特爾安全業務，年成長 6%。

We expect operating margins to increase by 3 points year-over-year; gross margins to be up 1 point at approximately 63%; and spending to be approximately $5.2 billion, flat year-over-year. We expect our spending as a percent of revenue to be down 2 points in the first half of the year versus last year as we make solid progress in increasing efficiency in the company. We expect EPS to be approximately $0.68, up 15% year-over-year.

我們預計營業利潤率將年增 3 個百分點；毛利率將成長 1 個百分點，達到約 63%；支出約 52 億美元，與上年持平。由於公司在提高效率方面取得了穩步進展，我們預計今年上半年支出佔收入的百分比將比去年下降 2 個百分點。我們預計每股收益約為 0.68 美元，年增 15%。

We feel good about where we are 90 days into our 3-year journey. We exceeded our expectations for Q1 and increased our profit expectations for the full year. At the same time, we are investing in the future by expanding our TAM from $45 billion to $220 billion. We are already seeing an impact with our growth-oriented businesses up double digits collectively as we continue to transform the company from a PC-centric company to a company of smart and connected devices that power the cloud.

在為期三年的旅程進行到第 90 天時，我們對目前的進展感到滿意。我們第一季業績超出預期，並提高了全年獲利預期。同時，我們正在投資未來，將我們的市場規模從 450 億美元擴大到 2,200 億美元。隨著我們不斷將公司從以 PC 為中心的公司轉型為一家為雲端提供智慧連網設備的公司，我們已經看到了成長型業務整體實現兩位數成長的影響。

With that, let me turn it over to Mark.

那麼，接下來就交給馬克吧。

All right. Thank you, Brian and Bob. (Operator Instructions) Crystal, please go ahead and introduce our first questioner.

好的。謝謝布萊恩和鮑伯。（操作員指示）Crystal，請介紹我們的第一位提問者。

Our first questioner comes from Vivek Arya from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們的第一個提問者來自美國銀行美林證券的維韋克·阿亞。

Brian, I'm curious on the data center growth. The growth rate is now below 6% in Q1. Are you still committed to the high single-digit growth rate for this year? What will drive it? Is it just some pause ahead of the broader launch of the Skylake servers? If you could just give us some more color about why the growth rate is below trend right now and what will help it get back to trend later in the year and over the next few years.

Brian，我對資料中心的發展很感興趣。第一季成長率已低於 6%。你們是否仍堅持今年實現高個位數成長率的目標？什麼因素會推動它？這只是 Skylake 伺服器全面發布前的一段喘息時間嗎？如果您能更詳細地解釋為什麼目前的成長率低於趨勢水平，以及哪些因素有助於它在今年晚些時候和未來幾年內恢復到趨勢水平，那就太好了。

Sure, Vivek. So the simple answer is, absolutely, we're still committed to the high single-digit growth for the year. If you take a look at it, as Bob and I both mentioned in the call, when you take a look at Q1 comparatives, one, Q1 of last year was 14 weeks. This year, it's a normal 13 weeks. So you add that 1 extra week, that's a couple of percent that you're competing against on a year-over-year basis. Secondly, Q1 tends to be our lowest quarter in general, if you just look at our seasonality, in the year for overall revenue and output and growth in that business, in the data center business. And so as we look out and we see, as you said, the ramp of Skylake in the second half, as we see the normal seasonality, we are absolutely committed to that high single-digit growth rate for the rest of the year.

當然可以，維韋克。所以答案很簡單，絕對的，我們仍然致力於實現今年接近兩位數的成長目標。正如我和鮑伯在電話會議中提到的那樣，如果你看一下第一季的比較數據，你會發現，去年第一季是 14 週。今年，正常情況下是13週。所以，如果加上這額外的一週時間，那麼你每年要​​與幾個百分點的競爭對手競爭。其次，從季節性角度來看，第一季通常是我們全年收入、產量和資料中心業務成長最低的季度。因此，正如您所說，當我們展望未來，看到 Skylake 在下半年的成長勢頭，以及正常的季節性因素時，我們絕對致力於在今年餘下的時間裡保持高個位數的成長率。

That's helpful. And as my follow-up, the very rich mix in PCs, ASPs were up very strongly, how sustainable is that? And are you seeing any effect of competition from AMD's product launches?

那很有幫助。我的後續問題是，PC 的豐富組合，平均售價 (ASP) 大幅上漲，這種情況能持續多久？您是否感受到AMD產品發布帶來的競爭影響？

Sure, I'll start. Bob may want to jump in. Each quarter, we come in here and say we're a little concerned about the sustainability of those high ASPs, and we continue to have that. So we always forecast, if you take a look at the -- what we forecasted for the remainder of the year, we've forecasted a slight decline in ASPs as we move through the year. Now that said, we are continuing to improve our road map. We're continuing to pull in products. And the demand for those high-end, high-performance products from 2 in 1s, gaming, high-end workstations continues to grow faster than we are even able to project. So right now, we've forecasted a slight decline through the rest of the year. And we -- but we had strong demand for it in Q1. And I -- and we really believe that's a function of our products and our road map. From a competition standpoint, we're not seeing anything unusual right now as far as -- there's always some level of competition in this market, but -- and I'd tell you, for Q1 and our forecast for Q2, we're not seeing anything out of the ordinary from what we normally see.

當然，我先來。鮑伯可能想插手。每個季度，我們都會來這裡說，我們對這些高平均售價的可持續性有點擔心，而我們也一直堅持這種看法。所以我們總是會做出預測，如果你看一下我們對今年剩餘時間的預測，我們預測隨著時間的推移，平均售價會略有下降。儘管如此，我們仍在不斷改進我們的路線圖。我們正在持續引進產品。而對於二合一電腦、遊戲本、高階工作站等高階高效能產品的需求，其成長速度甚至超過了我們的預期。所以目前我們預測今年剩餘時間會出現小幅下滑。我們——但我們在第一季對它的需求很強勁。而且我——我們真的相信，這與我們的產品和發展路線圖息息相關。從競爭的角度來看，目前我們並沒有看到任何不尋常的情況——這個市場總是存在一定程度的競爭，但是——我可以告訴你，就第一季和我們對第二季的預測而言，我們沒有看到任何與往常不同的情況。

Yes. The only thing I would add, Brian, is the -- in the -- with the ASPs being a little bit stronger than we expected in the first quarter, as we mentioned, we expect full year revenue to be up $0.5 billion versus where we were 90 days ago. And I would say one of the contributors to that is kind of how we saw ASP trend in the first quarter of the year.

是的。Brian，我唯一要補充的是——正如我們之前提到的，由於第一季的平均售價比我們預期的要高一些，我們預計全年營收將比90天前增加5億美元。我認為造成這種情況的原因之一，就是我們在今年第一季看到的平均售價趨勢。

And our next question comes from C.J. Muse from Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, first question, in terms your targeted 30% OpEx ratio by 2020, would love to hear what kind of revenue assumptions you're making as part of hitting that.

我想，第一個問題是，關於您設定的到 2020 年實現 30% 的營運支出比率目標，我很想知道您為了實現這個目標做出了怎樣的收入假設。

Sure. So I'll start. First, I thought it would be good to give you a little background, right, why we do we come out and commit this now and kind of what's our thinking behind this. And part of it is we had good progress, brought down spending as a percent of revenue about 1% for 2016. We're a quarter in, and we're seeing good progress in our efforts along 2017 of taking it down another -- slightly more than 1% as we look at this year. And so we just really took a look at do we think we can maintain that progress and continue to drive efficiencies while driving growth. The growth we've expected is what we talked about in the analyst meeting back in February, which is that mid-single-digit type of growth for the overall company. And that's kind of where we're at from a growth perspective. And then the cost reduction and the efficiencies are driving the rest of it.

當然。那我先來。首先，我想先跟大家介紹一下背景，對吧，為什麼我們現在要公開做出這個決定，以及我們這樣做背後的原因。部分原因是我們在2016年取得了良好的進展，將支出佔收入的比例降低了約1%。2017 年已經過去一個季度了，我們看到在努力將其進一步降低方面取得了良好進展——今年我們已經降低了略高於 1%。因此，我們認真審視了我們是否能夠保持這種進步，並在推動成長的同時繼續提高效率。我們預期的成長與我們在 2 月分析師會議上討論過的成長一致，即公司整體實現個位數中段的成長。從成長的角度來看，我們目前的情況大概就是這樣。然後，成本降低和效率提升推動了其餘部分的發展。

Yes. And I would just say that the -- we kind of -- our focus is on growing the earnings performance for the company in the short, medium and long term. And what we laid out at Analyst Day, as Brian indicated, was, over the next 3 years, low single-digit growth, operating income growing faster than revenue and EPS growing faster than operating income. And that's the -- against that, we're trying to obviously make revenue grow faster, continue to manage the efficiency in which we operate the company and drive strong earnings growth performance over the short, medium and long term. So the 30% target is consistent with kind of the 3-year plan, and we know that there's opportunities for us to be more efficient as we go forward.

是的。我只想說，我們——我們的重點是提高公司短期、中期和長期的獲利能力。正如布萊恩所指出的，我們在分析師日上提出的方案是，未來 3 年將實現個位數低成長，營業收入成長速度將超過收入成長速度，每股盈餘成長速度將超過營業收入成長速度。因此，我們顯然要努力加快營收成長，繼續提高公司營運效率，並在短期、中期和長期內實現強勁的獲利成長。因此，30% 的目標與三年計畫基本一致，我們知道，隨著我們不斷前進，我們還有機會提高效率。

That's very helpful. I guess, as my follow-up, was hoping to take a look at memory and here, would love to hear from you as to how we should think about layering in depreciation from Dalian this year, next and when you would expect to turn a profit on the operating margin line.

那很有幫助。我想，作為後續問題，我希望了解一下內存方面的情況，並且很想听聽您對今年和明年如何考慮大連折舊分攤的看法，以及您預計何時能在營業利潤率方面實現盈利。

Yes. On the depreciation, we kind of implied in our guidance really no change on a depreciation through course of the year. And what that assumes is roughly $2.5 billion additional CapEx from memory in the year. In terms of profitability, for this year, when we talked to you at Analyst Day, Rob kind of laid out a plan where the Core 3D NAND would be profitable in the second half of the year, but our losses for the business would still be roughly in line with where we were in 2016. And that was a function of really 3 things: good performance on 3D NAND, continuing to ramp Dalian and continuing to invest in our Optane product or 3D XPoint. So those dynamics have us breaking even for the core business in the second half of the year, and we said that near the end of 2018, as a whole, the memory business would be profitable. And to the first quarter, growth was stronger than we expected, and performance out of our fab was even better than we expected.

是的。關於折舊，我們在指導方針中暗示，全年折舊不會有任何變化。據我記憶，這意味著當年需要額外約 25 億美元的資本支出。就獲利能力而言，今年我們在分析師日與您交談時，羅布大致制定了一個計劃，即Core 3D NAND將在下半年實現盈利，但我們該業務的虧損仍將與2016年的虧損大致持平。這實際上是由三件事造成的：3D NAND 的良好性能、大連工廠的持續擴產以及對 Optane 產品或 3D XPoint 的持續投資。因此，在這種動態下，我們的核心業務將在下半年實現收支平衡，我們曾表示，到 2018 年底，整個儲存業務將實現盈利。第一季的成長比我們預期的要強勁，我們晶圓廠的業績甚至比我們預期的還要好。

Our next question comes from Blayne Curtis from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布萊恩‧柯蒂斯。

I just wanted to go back to the DCG growth and into your outlook in June, flat or slight growth overall, is your expectation the DCG would be similar to that? And then as you look out the whole year, you talked about cloud growth. I know tough compares with 18%. Just curious, you're -- since you've been shipping early to these customers, what would be the time frame that you would actually see some benefit from Skylake?

我只是想回到 DCG 成長的話題，以及您對 6 月的展望，即整體持平或略有成長，您是否預期 DCG 也會有類似的成長？然後，當你展望全年時，你談到了雲端運算的成長。我知道這很難，相當於18%。我很好奇，既然你們已經提前向這些客戶發貨，那麼你們實際上從 Skylake 中獲益需要多長時間？

Sure. So I'm not exactly sure I completely understood your slight growth. What we said is we're -- for DCG as a business, we're in the high single-digits growth rate. So we're absolutely committing to that. We talked about the 6% in Q1 and how, as we go through the year, we'll continue to grow. From the standpoint we've been sampling Skylake to the cloud guys now for some period of time, in fact, backed into latter half of last year, but you really don't see the ramp of Skylake in volume at any of the customers, whether it be the cloud guys or the rest of the enterprise and networking and all until the second half. That's really when the volume kicks in on the server side. And that's absolutely what we had forecasted, and there's no change in that forecast whatsoever.

當然。所以我不太確定我是否完全理解了你所說的輕微增長。我們說過，對於 DCG 這項業務而言，我們的成長率達到了接近兩位數。所以我們絕對會全力以赴。我們討論了第一季 6% 的成長，以及在接下來的時間裡，我們將如何繼續成長。從我們的角度來看，我們已經向雲端服務商提供 Skylake 的樣品一段時間了，實際上，早在去年下半年就開始了，但直到下半年，你都看不到 Skylake 在任何客戶（無論是雲端服務商還是其他企業和網路客戶）中的大規模應用。這時伺服器端的流量才會真正開始激增。而這完全符合我們的預測，預測沒有任何改變。

And then maybe if I could just ask, I know you don't break it out anymore but just your view on your modem product this year and next. And if you could also maybe opine about your foundry strategy and opportunities there.

然後，如果可以的話，我想問一下，我知道你們不再公開談論這個問題了，但你們對今年和明年的調製解調器產品有什麼看法？如果您還能就貴公司的代工廠策略和機會發表一些看法就更好了。

Sure. I can start with the modem, and Bob can talk about -- I'm not going to break it out financially. Bob can talk about -- jump on top of this. But for us, on our modem, it continues to gain momentum. We've talked about our one large customer, but we continue to get other interest in it. We are on schedule to bring our next-generation modem into production and customer qualifications this year. And really, looking out over time, we have the next several series of modems over the next few years from an LTE perspective, and then we're already working on and believe we're leading, if you looked at our output from MWC back in February as well, on the 5G side, which is both at the modem and back through the base station. And that, we believe, is really the differential that we're able to provide in the communication space, is in a space like 5G where the modem and the base station and backhaul is so integrated and so important, we're able to provide that end-to-end solution. From a foundry perspective, we continue to talk to several large customers, and as we're able to, we'll talk about volumes and launching of new products. But for right now, we're just saying we're continuing to invest and grow that business.

當然。我可以先從調變解調器開始，鮑伯可以談談──我不會為此花冤枉錢。鮑伯可以談談──趕緊抓住這個機會。但對我們來說，在我們的數據機上，它仍在持續成長。我們已經談過我們的一位大客戶，但我們仍然不斷收到其他對此感興趣的客戶。我們正按計畫推進下一代調變解調器的生產和客戶認證工作，預計今年完成。從長遠來看，從 LTE 的角度來看，未來幾年我們將推出幾代調製解調器，而且我們已經在 5G 方面投入研發，並且相信我們處於領先地位。如果你看看我們二月在 MWC 上發布的內容，你會發現我們在 5G 方面處於領先地位，無論是在調製解調器方面還是透過基地台方面。我們相信，這正是我們在通訊領域能夠提供的真正差異化優勢，在像 5G 這樣的領域，調製解調器、基地台和回程鏈路高度整合且至關重要，我們能夠提供端到端的解決方案。從代工廠的角度來看，我們繼續與幾家大客戶洽談，一旦條件允許，我們將討論銷售和新產品的推出。但就目前而言，我們只想說我們將繼續投資並發展這項業務。

Yes. And the only thing that I would add is the strong CCG revenue growth of 6% in the quarter. As you'll remember, because our first launch client really didn't ramp until the second half of last year, the first half revenue growth for CCG will -- particularly because of modem, will have a relatively easy comp. So that's a contributor to growth in the first half. And as Brian said, we -- the comps get much tougher in the second half because our one client launched in the second half last year. But given the products we have, we feel relatively good about where we are.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，CCG 本季營收實現了 6% 的強勁成長。您應該還記得，由於我們的第一個啟動客戶直到去年下半年才真正開始擴大規模，因此 CCG 上半年的收入成長——特別是由於調製解調器——將相對容易進行比較。所以這是上半年成長的促成因素。正如布萊恩所說，下半年的比較會變得更加艱難，因為我們的一位客戶去年是在下半年推出的。但就我們目前的產品而言，我們對現狀感到比較滿意。

Our next question comes from Stacy Rasgon from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

First, I wanted to ask again about this 30% spending target. You guys just had an Analyst Day like 2 months ago. It seems like something that probably should have been talked about then. So what's changed in the last 2 months that means you need to roll the target out on today's call? And how should I try to reconcile that target with some of your other commentary at the Analyst Day where you were fairly gung ho about the need to invest to fund growth?

首先，我想再詢問一下關於30%支出目標的問題。你們大概兩個月前才舉辦過一次分析師日活動。這似乎是當時就該討論的事情。那麼，過去兩個月發生了什麼變化，以至於你需要在今天的電話會議上宣布目標？我該如何調和這個目標和您在分析師日上發表的其他一些評論呢？您在分析師日上非常熱衷於投資以資助成長。

So I'll start, Stacy. I think you have to take a look at where we're at. You're kind of asking a couple of questions. So first, from the growth standpoint, our position about investing and continuing to really drive growth is absolutely still just as strong as it was back in February at the Analyst Day. And I'd tell you, Q1 is a great example of that with year-over-year growth, another record quarter coming off a record year. And raising the year and forecasting another record year. So I feel very good about the investments we've made, both short term, medium term and long term, to drive that growth. That said, Bob and I have both been looking at now how do we do that and also at the same time, become more and more efficient. And what we've looked at now is that our performance and becoming more efficient in 2016 and taking about 1% out of our spending as a percent of revenue was very successful. We understand how we did that. As we looked at our first quarter performance and what we believe we can take out for the rest of 2017 is another percent of spending as a percent of revenue, slightly more actually. And then I think one of the things that Bob's really brought in as the CFO is new ways of thinking and new looks at how to continue that trend. And so taking 1% a year or so out of our spending as a percent of revenue is something we think we can go and accomplish while driving that growth. And that is the effort that we've spent over the last couple months really digging into those details. And that's why we felt like it was important we came out now and really said, yes, we are committing to that. We understand the details behind it. And we've got a history now that tells us we can say it with confidence.

那我先來，史泰西。我認為你應該好好審視我們目前的處境。你其實問了好幾個問題。首先，從成長的角度來看，我們關於投資並繼續真正推動成長的立場仍然和2月分析師日時一樣堅定。我可以告訴你，第一季就是一個很好的例子，實現了同比增長，在創紀錄的一年之後，又一個創紀錄的季度。並預測今年將再創佳績。因此，我對我們為推動成長而進行的短期、中期和長期投資感到非常滿意。也就是說，鮑伯和我一直在思考，我們如何做到這一點，同時又能變得越來越有效率。我們現在看到的是，我們在 2016 年提高了業績，提高了效率，並將支出佔收入的比例降低了約 1%，這是非常成功的。我們明白我們是怎麼做到的。當我們回顧第一季的業績，並展望2017年剩餘時間裡，我們認為支出佔收入的百分比可以再提高一個百分比，實際上還會略微提高一些。我認為，鮑伯作為財務長真正帶來的其中一點，就是新的思維方式和如何延續這一趨勢的新視角。因此，我們認為每年從支出中削減約 1%（佔收入的百分比）是可以實現的，同時也能推動成長。而這正是我們過去幾個月來一直努力深入研究這些細節的原因。正因如此，我們覺得現在站出來正式表態非常重要，是的，我們承諾會做到這一點。我們了解其中的細節。而我們現在所取得的歷史也告訴我們，我們可以自信地說出這句話。

Got it. For my follow-up, I'd like to ask about DCG margins. So they were 35% this quarter. It doesn't sound like there was anything structural like the warranty charge that hit last quarter. This sounds like the drivers around allocation and everything else we've discussed. But it's still quite a bit lower than I think most would have expected. How should we think about that margin profile trending through the year as the Skylake parts ramp? And do you think, for the full year, you'll actually be within the data center margin targets that you provided at the Analyst Day?

知道了。我想進一步詢問有關 DCG 利潤率的問題。所以他們本季佔比為35%。聽起來不像上個季度出現了保固費用之類的結構性問題。這聽起來像是圍繞著分配和其他所有事情的驅動因素。但這仍然比大多數人預期的要低得多。隨著 Skylake 處理器的量產，我們該如何看待全年利潤率的變化趨勢？您認為，從全年來看，您能否真正達到在分析師日上提出的資料中心利潤率目標？

Yes, I would -- Stacy, we kind of provided a long-term outlook of 40% to 45% operating margin for DCG. Our expectations for this year were for growth, as Brian indicated earlier, high single digits and at the lower end of that range, of the 40% to 45%. In the first quarter, just to be clear, the 9-point drop in margin, 7 points of that is attributed to the fact that DCG is a bigger business, and we've indicated it will be first on 7-nanometer and a fast follow on 10-nanometer. As a result, it gets a bigger share of our technology development and our SG&A allocation. So 7 points of the 9 decline are simply a result of how we allocate costs to the business segments. I think in terms of going through the course of the year, the things that are going to change, as Brian indicated, we got strong product offering coming out in the second half of the year. We expect ASPs to improve as we go throughout the year. As you know, the first quarter is always the lower end of margin seasonality -- from a seasonal perspective. And we expect product costs to improve as we continue the transition from 22- to 14-nanometer. So it's in line with our long-term expectations, no change; our outlook for 2017, no change. The biggest fundamental driver to margin performance is simply the success of the data center business in terms of growing, in terms of being a bigger chunk of the overall business, in terms of being a beneficiary of leading-edge technology that bears 7 points impact because of the higher burden of our allocations on the business. So we feel good on where we are for the quarter and where we're positioned for the full year.

是的，我會的－Stacy，我們為DCG提供了40%至45%的長期營業利潤率展望。正如布萊恩之前所指出的，我們對今年的成長預期是接近兩位數，並且處於該範圍的下限，即 40% 到 45%。需要明確的是，第一季利潤率下降了 9 個百分點，其中 7 個百分點是由於 DCG 業務規模更大，而且我們已經表明它將率先採用 7 奈米技術，並迅速跟進採用 10 奈米技術。因此，它獲得了我們技術開發和銷售、管理及行政費用分配中更大的份額。因此，9個百分點的下降中有7個百分點僅僅是由於我們如何將成本分配給各個業務部門造成的。我認為，就今年的發展而言，正如布萊恩所指出的那樣，一些事情將會發生變化，我們將在下半年推出強大的產品系列。我們預計平均售價會隨著時間的推移而提高。如您所知，從季節性角度來看，第一季的利潤率總是處於季節性波動的下限。我們預計，隨著我們從 22 奈米向 14 奈米過渡的持續進行，產品成本將會得到改善。所以這符合我們的長期預期，沒有改變；我們對 2017 年的展望也沒有改變。利潤率表現的最大根本驅動因素就是資料中心業務的成功，包括成長、在整體業務中佔比增大以及受益於前沿技術，而前沿技術由於我們對業務的投入更大，帶來了 7 個百分點的影響。因此，我們對本季的業績以及全年的定位都感到滿意。

But those allocation charges aren't going to go away anytime soon. It sounds like they're going to hang around for a while if you're talking about 10 and the 7-nanometer.

但這些分配費用不會很快取消。如果你說的是 10 奈米和 7 奈米的話，聽起來它們還會存在一段時間。

Yes, that's true and that's reflected in our 40% to 45% and our improvement throughout the course of the year.

是的，的確如此，這體現在我們40%到45%的業績以及我們全年的進步。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer from Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Bob, maybe just a follow-on to Stacy's question, just some clarification around the allocation charges. The 7 points in March, does that represent a peak? Or do we run into a situation where as absolute costs for 7 and 10 go up throughout the year, you could see op margins in DCG continue to be down just because the percent doesn't change but the dollars are going up?

鮑勃，也許可以作為斯泰西問題的補充，澄清一下分配費用的相關事宜。3月的7個點，是否代表著高峰？或者，我們是否會遇到這樣的情況：隨著 7 和 10 的絕對成本在一年中不斷上升，DCG 的營業利潤率可能會繼續下降，僅僅因為百分比沒有變化，但金額卻在增加？

Yes. I mean, our expectation is the operating margins for DCG will improve by quarter throughout the year. Again, it'll be a function of the normal seasonality of the profitability of the business. It will still bear a significant chunk of our tech development and SG&A costs. But you may remember that our development costs during the course of the year, as we indicated, I think maybe last couple quarters, that comes down from first half to second half. So as that cost comes down, all of our businesses will benefit from lower costs. And then the third thing, higher -- yes, the real fundamentals of the business are higher ASPs with good product with an outstanding performance and getting better and better yields on our 14-nanometer product going through the fab will be benefits to the profitability of the business. The lowest point Q1 expectations, it'll grow each quarter throughout the year, and we would expect full year operating margins, despite higher absorption, higher burden from our indirect costs, at roughly 40% for the year.

是的。我的意思是，我們預計DCG的營業利潤率將在今年逐季提高。同樣，這取決於企業獲利能力的正常季節性波動。它仍將承擔我們技術開發和銷售、管理及行政費用中的很大一部分。但您可能還記得，正如我們之前提到的，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們的研發成本從上半年到下半年有所下降。因此，隨著成本的降低，我們所有的企業都將受益於成本的降低。第三點，更高的－是的，業務的真正基本面是更高的平均售價，優秀的產品具有卓越的性能，並且我們14奈米產品在晶圓廠的良率越來越高，這將有利於業務的盈利能力。第一季的最低預期是，全年每季都會成長，我們預計，儘管吸收率較高，間接成本負擔較重，全年營業利潤率仍將達到 40% 左右。

And that clarification's helpful. And then, Brian, as my follow-up, one of the strengths of your model is just the free cash flow that you can generate, which enables you to reinvest organically back in the business. And you're clearly doing it this year on the CapEx front with CapEx up over 20% year-over-year. I guess what I'm trying to understand is should we be thinking of CapEx this year as sort of the new norm with rising capital intensity, investments in the memory business, maybe optionality around foundry? Or is the $12 billion this year sort of something that we should think about as being an above trend or particularly high spending year? Any color on that would be helpful.

這樣的澄清很有幫助。然後，布萊恩，作為我的後續問題，你的模式的優勢之一就是你能產生的自由現金流，這讓你能夠將收益有機地再投資到業務中。顯然，你們今年在資本支出方面也取得了進展，資本支出年增超過 20%。我想了解的是，隨著資本密集度的提高、對記憶體業務的投資，以及代工方面的選擇增多，我們是否應該將今年的資本支出視為一種新的常態？或者，今年的 120 億美元是否應該被視為高於平均或支出特別高的一年？如果能加上任何顏色就更好了。

Sure, John. I'd tell you that the increase in CapEx that you're seeing this year is something that we kind of see as unique. But my guess is that we'll have to continue it for maybe 1 year more or so as we continue to build out that memory factory. But look, if you take a long-term view, I don't expect us to run these kinds of CapEx levels. I -- we'll always make good investments. So in a place like this where we think we have differential technology like 3D NAND and our Optane/3D XPoint, I'm going to look for ways to invest that have a positive NPV. But from this current view, we probably have another year and then probably go back down to what we'd consider a more normal rate.

當然可以，約翰。我想說的是，今年資本支出的成長是我們認為比較獨特的現象。但我估計，由於我們需要繼續建造記憶體工廠，可能還需要再持續一年左右的時間。但是，從長遠來看，我不認為我們會一直保持這種資本支出水準。我——我們總是能做出好的投資。所以，在像 3D NAND 和 Optane/3D XPoint 這樣我們認為擁有差異化技術的地方，我會尋找能夠帶來正淨現值的投資方式。但從目前的情況來看，我們可能還要再等一年，然後利率可能會回落到我們認為更正常的水平。

Our next question comes from David Wong from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的David Wong。

Can you give us some idea within data center of what revenues you're currently seeing from Xeon Phi? And also, you mentioned acceleration services at Alibaba. Can you fill us in on any other key customers adopting Xeon Phi, FPGAs or any of your other accelerators?

您能否大致介紹一下資料中心方面，目前 Xeon Phi 帶來的收入狀況？另外，您也提到了阿里巴巴的加速服務。您能否介紹一下還有哪些重要客戶採用了 Xeon Phi、FPGA 或貴公司的任何其他加速器？

Sure. So we don't break out revenue on specific products like Phi, but Xeon Phi does continue to ramp and grow from a product standpoint. We have some additional products that we'll launch in the second half of this year around Xeon Phi from Knights Mill. And from an FPGA or other accelerators, we continue to get several of the large cloud providers, networking providers who are continuing to use our FPGAs. But again, we don't break out on a -- by customer standpoint. But we still are committed to our 6% roughly growth on the PSG business this year. Q1 was down just because of some unique -- there was some extra buying in the latter half of last year around some cloud. And the networking guys are typically down in the first quarter. So it hit its forecast, but it's down year-over-year. We think we'll recover that as we go through the rest of the year from an FPGA. And then as we go out through the second half of this year, the first of the products comes out in silicon from our Nirvana acquisition, which is another form of AI acceleration. We'll get that first silicon. We'll start to work with customers, and you'll see that come in 2018 as an additional accelerator adding to our full AI portfolio.

當然。因此，我們不單獨列出像 Phi 這樣的特定產品的收入，但從產品角度來看，Xeon Phi 的確在持續成長。今年下半年，我們將圍繞 Knights Mill 的 Xeon Phi 推出一些其他產品。而且，我們還從 FPGA 或其他加速器中獲得了幾家大型雲端供應商和網路供應商的支持，他們繼續使用我們的 FPGA。但再說一遍，我們不會從客戶的角度進行細分。但我們仍致力於實現今年巴黎聖日耳曼業務約 6% 的成長目標。第一季業績下滑只是因為一些特殊情況——去年下半年圍繞雲端服務出現了一些額外的購買。網路工程師通常在第一季表現不佳。所以它達到了預期目標，但同比有所下降。我們認為，隨著今年剩餘時間的推進，我們將透過FPGA實現這一目標。然後，隨著我們進入今年下半年，我們收購的 Nirvana 的首款產品將以晶片形式面世，這是另一種形式的 AI 加速。我們會拿到第一批矽片。我們將開始與客戶合作，您將在 2018 年看到它作為我們完整人工智慧產品組合的另一個加速器推出。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri from Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Timothy Arcuri。

I just wanted to clarify your answer to John's question. So in terms of the $300 million year-over-year burden on DCG operating margin that's due to the cost allocation, is that sort of a fixed number going forward? Or does that absolute number get better through the year?

我只是想澄清一下你對約翰問題的回答。因此，由於成本分攤，DCG 的營運利潤率每年增加 3 億美元，這個數字在未來會是固定值嗎？或者說，這個絕對數字在一年中會逐漸改善嗎？

The -- there's 2 dynamics on our total pool of indirect costs that are going on for the company. One is our SG&A indirect costs are coming down. Brian referred to that earlier about the progress we made on direct spending overall coming down another 1 point plus during the course of the year. And second, our R&D costs, particularly as it relates to Moore's Law for 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer, goes up a little bit. So during the course of the year, our overall costs will be roughly flat that we'll be allocating to the businesses. And DCG will get a larger portion of that than it has historically, roughly impacting the business by 7 points because of its bigger size and because of the decision to have it be a beneficiary of Moore's Law sooner than it has historically.

公司間接成本總額目前存在兩種動態變化。一是我們的銷售、管理及行政間接成本正在下降。布萊恩之前提到過，我們今年的直接支出總體上又下降了 1 個百分點以上，取得了進展。其次，我們的研發成本，特別是與摩爾定律相關的 10 奈米和 7 奈米技術的成本，略有上升。因此，在這一年中，我們的總成本將大致保持不變，我們將把這些成本分配給各個業務部門。DCG 將獲得比以往更大的份額，由於其規模更大，並決定讓它比以往更早地受益於摩爾定律，這將大致影響其業務 7 個百分點。

And then as a follow-up, I -- so I just wanted to clarify. So the NSG, so you're expecting to still lose money into the first half of next year. And is that what you're saying? Or are you saying that for the entirety of the year next year you'll be profitable?

然後作為後續，我——所以我想澄清一下。所以，NSG預計明年上半年仍將虧損。你是這個意思嗎？還是你是說明年全年都會獲利？

So separate out again and remember we're making the large investments in Dalian. So from a pure 3D NAND perspective, we said it goes breakeven and beyond in the latter half of this year. So for next year, our standard NAND business will be profitable. 3D XPoint plus the Optane product is additional investments we're making. We said that that's in the second half of next year it goes to breakeven. And the overall business does as well. We haven't gotten any more granular than that for right now.

所以，再次分開來看，記住我們正在對大連進行大量投資。因此，從純粹的 3D NAND 角度來看，我們認為它在今年下半年就能實現盈虧平衡並取得更大收益。因此，明年我們的標準NAND業務將實現盈利。3D XPoint 和 Optane 產品是我們正在進行的額外投資。我們說過，明年下半年就能達到損益兩平。整個業務也隨之發展。目前我們還沒有進行更細緻的分析。

And our next question will come from Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

Wanted to ask the first one on the OpEx side of things, and I applaud the 30% target. It's good to see that commitment. But I wanted to focus a little bit more in the near term. In the first quarter, it was about $100 million above what you had guided. In the second quarter, it's a bit above what I expected, too, especially given McAfee. So could you give us a little color on why it was a little bit higher in the first quarter and where we are in the restructuring benefits and the McAfee benefits? If you can do anything to size either of those in the near term, that will be helpful.

首先我想問一下營運支出方面的問題，我對30%的目標表示讚賞。很高興看到這種投入。但我希望把更多精力放在近期的事情上。第一季度，實際收入比您預期的高出約 1 億美元。第二季也略高於我的預期，尤其是考慮到 McAfee 的影響。那麼，您能否簡要說明為什麼第一季略高一些，以及我們在重組收益和 McAfee 收益方面進展如何？如果你近期內能對這兩個尺寸做些調整，那將會很有幫助。

Yes. I think first quarter, a little bit over, I'd characterize it primarily in the round. I think for first half, we're basically implying $10.6 billion of OpEx, and we're committed to our $20.5 billion for the first -- sorry, for the full year. So $10.6 billion in first half drops to $9.9 billion in the second half, and there's really 2 primary drivers to that. One is, as you alluded, the exit of McAfee will be roughly $300 million out from the first half run rate. And then secondly, just the completion of our previously announced restructuring programs will continue to bear fruit on lower OpEx in the second half of the year. So first half, $10.6 billion; second half, $9.9 billion; McAfee exit, continued execution and feel good about full year of $20.5 billion.

是的。我認為第一季度，稍微長一點，我主要會用「整體」來形容它。我認為上半年，我們的營運支出基本上為 106 億美元，而我們承諾在第一年——抱歉，是全年——投入 205 億美元。因此，上半年的 106 億美元下降到下半年的 99 億美元，這主要有兩個原因。一是，正如你所暗示的，McAfee 的退出將使上半年的營運成本減少約 3 億美元。其次，我們先前宣布的重組計畫的完成，將在下半年繼續降低營運支出，從而取得成效。所以上半年營收 106 億美元；下半年營收 99 億美元；McAfee 退出，持續執行，對全年營收 205 億美元充滿信心。

And just a reminder, that $20.5 billion takes another roughly 1%, slightly more, out of our spending as a percent of revenue. So that's all baked in.

提醒一下，205 億美元會讓我們的支出佔收入的比例再增加約 1%，甚至更多。所以這些都已經內定了。

I guess my follow-up then switches to the gross margin side of things. It's staying solid, and I might be at the risk of a rounding error in this question as well. But considering that you raised your revenues and ASPs were a big portion of that, usually that's a pretty good follow-through. So the fact that you're keeping the gross margin guide for the year flat at 63%, are there any incremental offsets to the goodness that the revenue and the ASPs would generate? Or is it in fact just rounding?

我想我接下來要討論的重點應該是毛利率方面的問題。它保持穩定，而且我在這個問題上也可能有四捨五入誤差。但考慮到你們提高了收入，而平均售價（ASP）在其中佔了很大一部分，這通常算是一個相當不錯的後續行動。既然你們將全年毛利率預期維持在 63% 不變，那麼收入和平均售價的成長是否會對毛利率帶來的好處造成任何額外的抵銷呢？或者這實際上只是四捨五入的結果？

I don't know if it's rounding or not. I'd say $0.5 billion of revenue upside at kind of roughly gross margin dynamics of the business will fall through an additional $0.05 of EPS. So we feel great about that. I think the dynamics of more the business is in the second half. ASPs will improve for data center. As Brian alluded earlier, we've assumed that ASPs will decline a little for the client business and the fast growth of memory and modem will have a negative mix impact on gross margin. So I think when we take that all together through the year, we felt a fairly consistent 63% with all those puts and takes throughout through the course of the year. And Q1 was where we expected; Q2, consistent with Q1 and full year.

我不知道這算不算四捨五入。我認為，以目前業務的毛利率水平，5億美元的營收成長將導致每股盈餘減少0.05美元。我們對此感到非常滿意。我認為業務的動態更體現在下半年。ASP（應用服務提供者）將改善資料中心的狀況。正如布萊恩之前提到的，我們假設客戶端業務的平均售價會略有下降，而記憶體和數據機的快速成長將對毛利率產生負面影響。所以我覺得，當我們把全年的情況綜合起來考慮時，我們感覺全年所有這些買賣操作的成功率都相當穩定地達到了 63%。第一季業績符合預期；第二季業績與第一季及全年業績一致。

And our final question comes from Kevin Cassidy from Stifel.

最後一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Kevin Cassidy。

Just on the capacity that you're building in Dalian, can you say what percentage increase you're getting? Or is it directly correlated to the revenue growth that you're seeing in the memory group?

僅就您在大連建設的產能而言，您能否透露一下產能成長百分比？或者，它是否與記憶體業務部門的收入成長直接相關？

Percentage. So a, yes, the growth in the memory business that goes through the rest of this year is largely driven by the ramp of the Dalian factory along with some assumptions around strong ASPs as demand continues to outpace supply the market in general. And so if you take a look from here on, in fact, 2017 by then, as we go out into 2018 and beyond, Dalian will continue to be the driver of growth of that business.

百分比。所以，是的，今年剩餘時間記憶體業務的成長主要得益於大連工廠的產能提升，以及對強勁的平均售價的一些預期，因為市場整體需求持續超過供應。因此，從現在開始，實際上從 2017 年到 2018 年及以後，大連將繼續成為該業務成長的驅動力。

I guess another way to phrase the question is what's the bit growth? Most other memory companies give a projection of what their bit growth is.

我想，這個問題也可以這樣問：比特成長是多少？其他大多數記憶體公司都會對其位元成長做出預測。

Yes. I don't think we've actually ever given a bit growth. So that's not a public number. We can take a look at that for next quarter as to whether we want to start adding that to our normal distribution. But what we've always talked about is growth of the business from a profit or revenue standpoint and overall growth, partly because, remember, more and more of that business will become things like 3D XPoint/Optane, and bits will be a little bit different there, right? Not all bits are going to be created equal. That's a very differentiating technology. It's really got performance of DRAM-like devices with NAND non-volatility and pricing in between. And so those bits are a bit different than, say, typical NAND bits, and I wouldn't want to just lump those all into a standard number. So we need to think about how we'd really go and present this to you if you want to think about it from a bit standpoint. And that -- it's around 5% of the business this year, but as you go out into next year and beyond, it becomes a larger and larger percentage as we see more and more products, especially in the data centers, use the Optane technology.

是的。我認為我們實際上從未真正實現過成長。所以這不是公開號碼。我們可以考慮下個季度是否要將其添加到我們的常態分佈中。但我們一直以來談論的都是從利潤或收入的角度以及整體成長來推動業務發展，部分原因是，記住，越來越多的業務將變成像 3D XPoint/Optane 這樣的技術，而這些技術在某些方面會有所不同，對吧？並非所有的比特都生而相同。這是一項極具差異化的技術。它兼具 DRAM 設備的性能、NAND 的非易失性以及介於兩者之間的價格。因此，這些位元與典型的 NAND 位元略有不同，我不想把它們都歸為一個標準數字。所以，如果你想從宏觀的角度來看這個問題，我們需要考慮如何才能真正地向你呈現這個問題。今年這部分業務約佔總業務的 5%，但隨著明年及以後，隨著越來越多的產品（尤其是在資料中心）使用 Optane 技術，這一比例將會越來越大。

Right. And maybe if I could ask that question, too, of Optane. When would it transfer to China?

正確的。也許我也可以問Optane這個問題。什麼時候會轉移到中國？

We haven't talked about a transfer date to China yet. That hasn't been made public right now. Right now, Dalian is 3D NAND.

我們還沒有討論過向中國轉移的具體日期。目前尚未公開。目前，大連的3D NAND技術已經非常成熟。

Thanks, Kevin, and thank you all for joining us. Crystal, please go ahead and wrap up the call.

謝謝凱文，也謝謝各位的參與。克麗絲塔爾，請你結束通話吧。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。你們可以斷開連結了。祝大家今天過得愉快。