英特爾 (INTC) 2013 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Intel Corporation first quarter 2013 earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加英特爾公司 2013 年第一季財報電話會議。

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.

此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time.

稍後我們將進行問答環節，屆時會有說明。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded.

謹此提醒，本次電話會議可能會被錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mark Henninger, Director of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，投資者關係總監馬克·亨寧格 (Mark Henninger)。

Sir, you may begin.

先生，您可以開始了。

Thanks, Sandy, and welcome everyone to Intel's first quarter 2013 conference call.

謝謝桑迪，歡迎大家參加英特爾 2013 年第一季電話會議。

By now you should have received a copy of our earnings release, and the CFO commentary that goes along with that.

到目前為止，您應該已經收到了我們的收益發布副本以及隨之而來的財務長評論。

If you did not receive both documents, they are currently available on our website, INTC.com.

如果您沒有收到這兩份文件，目前可以在我們的網站 INTC.com 上取得它們。

I'm joined today by Paul Otellini, our President and CEO, and Stacy Smith, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天，我們的總裁兼執行長保羅歐德寧 (Paul Otellini) 和財務長史黛西史密斯 (Stacy Smith) 也加入了我的行列。

In a moment, we'll hear brief remarks from both of them followed by the Q&A.

稍後，我們將聽到他們兩人的簡短發言，然後進行問答。

Before we begin, let me remind everyone that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it, and as such does include risks and uncertainties.

在開始之前，讓我提醒大家，今天的討論包含基於我們目前所看到的環境的前瞻性陳述，因此確實包含風險和不確定性。

Please refer to our press release for more information on the specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

請參閱我們的新聞稿，以了解有關可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的特定風險因素的更多資​​訊。

Also, if during this call we use any non-GAAP financial measures or references, we'll post the appropriate GAAP financial reconciliation to our website, INTC.com.

此外，如果在本次電話會議期間我們使用任何非 GAAP 財務指標或參考資料，我們將在我們的網站 INTC.com 上發布適當的 GAAP 財務調節表。

So with that, let me hand it over to Paul.

那麼，讓我把它交給保羅。

Thanks, Mark, and good afternoon.

謝謝，馬克，下午好。

As you know, I have a month left in my career at Intel and this will be my last conference call with you.

如您所知，我在英特爾的職業生涯還剩一個月，這將是我與您的最後一次電話會議。

I've been doing these calls since 1993, and have done approximately 80 calls with you.

我從 1993 年起就一直在打這些電話，已經和你們打了大約 80 通電話。

I wanted to take a departure from my traditional remarks during this, my final earnings call.

在這最後一次財報電話會議上，我想改變我的傳統言論。

During the next few minutes, I'd like to share some perspective on the Company and on our industry, drawing from my career and my experience as Intel's 5th CEO.

在接下來的幾分鐘裡，我想根據我作為英特爾第五任執行長的職業生涯和經驗，分享一些對公司和產業的看法。

I came to Intel nearly 40 years ago, eager to join a team of extraordinarily smart, creative and driven engineers, and the legendary team of Founders, some of the greatest minds in technology.

近 40 年前，我來到英特爾，渴望加入一支由極其聰明、富有創造力和乾勁的工程師組成的團隊，以及傳奇的創始人團隊，他們都是技術領域最偉大的頭腦。

In 1974, Intel was still a start-up, with revenues of $134 million, and a culture built on relentless innovation and designed to thrive on change.

1974 年，英特爾還是一家新創公司，營收為 1.34 億美元，其文化建立在不懈的創新之上，旨在透過變革蓬勃發展。

A revolution in computing had just begun, but it would take us another decade before we realized how dramatically it would change our business and the world.

計算領域的革命才剛開始，但我們又花了十年才意識到它將如何巨大地改變我們的業務和世界。

Amidst all that change and reinvention there has, however, been a constant.

然而，在所有這些變化和重塑中，有一個常數。

From the early days of DRAM to the era of the first microprocessor, from one architectural battle to the next, and across generations of form factors and operating systems, Intel has grown and thrived.

從 DRAM 的早期到第一個微處理器的時代，從一場架構大戰到下一場架構大戰，跨越一代又一代的外形尺寸和操作系統，英特爾不斷成長和繁榮。

Naturally, constant change and reinvention creates plenty of room for both opportunity and skepticism.

當然，不斷的變化和重塑為機會和懷疑創造了充足的空間。

As the industry and the Company evolved, risk and uncertainty were common, but the Company's inventiveness, architectural innovation, manufacturing expertise, and intense drive allowed it to create and capitalize on opportunity over the long haul.

隨著行業和公司的發展，風險和不確定性很常見，但公司的創造力、架構創新、製造專業知識和強烈的動力使其能夠長期創造和利用機會。

In May of 2005 I became CEO, and over the past eight years we've executed a broad strategy to reposition the Company to participate in all segments of computing, by capitalizing on all of our considerable strengths.

2005 年 5 月，我成為首席執行官，在過去的八年裡，我們執行了一項廣泛的策略，透過利用我們所有的強大優勢，重新定位公司，參與計算的所有領域。

We implemented the Tick-Tock model, which set the pace of innovation and has become an industry benchmark of execution.

我們實施了 Tick-Tock 模式，該模式設定了創新的步伐，並已成為業界執行的基準。

We developed the Atom microarchitecture to address low-power and low-cost market segments.

我們開發 Atom 微架構來滿足低功耗和低成本細分市場的需求。

Through the acquisitions of Infineon Wireless Solutions and McAfee, we've invested in strategic capabilities like baseband technology and security that position us to deliver important new capabilities, and compete across an even broader range of devices.

透過收購英飛凌無線解決方案和麥克菲，我們投資了基頻技術和安全等戰略能力，使我們能夠提供重要的新功能，並在更廣泛的設備上競爭。

And we've invented and implemented manufacturing breakthroughs that are allowing us to deliver on the promise and competitive benefits of Moore's Law.

我們發明並實現了製造方面的突破，使我們能夠兌現摩爾定律的承諾和競爭優勢。

Never in the history of our Company has our ability to participate across the spectrum of computing been greater, from industrial machines that are increasingly connected to the Internet to the smallest battery-powered devices, from traditional PCs to ultrabooks, and from high-performance servers to microservers, storage and networking equipment, we now compete wherever there is computing.

在我們公司的歷史上，我們參與整個運算領域的能力從未如此強大，從越來越多地連接到互聯網的工業機器到最小的電池供電設備，從傳統 PC 到超級本，以及從高效能伺服器到微型伺服器、儲存和網路設備，我們現在在任何有計算的地方進行競爭。

At the same time, we've put more distance between us and the rest of the semiconductor industry than ever before.

同時，我們與半導體產業其他公司之間的距離比以往任何時候都拉得更大。

In the first quarter we shipped our 100 millionth 22-nanometer processor, using our revolutionary 3D transistor technology, while the rest of the industry works to ship its first unit.

在第一季度，我們使用革命性的 3D 電晶體技術交付了第 1 億個 22 奈米處理器，而業內其他公司則致力於交付第一批產品。

That breakthrough is just one in the long history of material science firsts, following innovations like string silicon and high-K/metal-gate.

這項突破只是材料科學漫長歷史中的一個突破，繼矽線和高 K/金屬閘極等創新之後。

This leadership in material science and manufacturing technology is the foundation on which our future success will be based, arming us with the world's lowest power and lowest cost transistors.

這種在材料科學和製造技術方面的領先地位是我們未來成功的基礎，為我們提供世界上功耗最低、成本最低的電晶體。

But even as I prepare to pass the baton to a new generation of leadership, I know Intel's story is nowhere near completely written.

但即使當我準備將接力棒交給新一代領導階層時，我也知道英特爾的故事還遠遠沒有寫完。

I'm excited about what lies ahead for Intel.

我對英特爾的未來感到興奮。

The Company has a historically broad portfolio of products, spanning the spectrum of computing and price points.

該公司歷來擁有廣泛的產品組合，涵蓋計算和價位範圍。

And as we begin to transition to 14-nanometer technology later this year, our architectural and process technology investments and innovation will become increasingly apparent and valuable for our customers and to the market.

隨著今年稍後我們開始過渡到 14 奈米技術，我們的架構和製程技術投資和創新對於我們的客戶和市場將變得越來越明顯和有價值。

Over the past few months, I've been traveling to our sites here in the US and around the world.

在過去的幾個月裡，我一直在造訪我們在美國和世界各地的網站。

That creativity and drive that first attracted me to Intel almost four decades ago has never been higher.

大約四十年前，英特爾首次吸引我的創造力和動力從未如此之高。

The Company's core architectural and manufacturing strengths have never been more valuable, and the opportunity presented by the evolution and expansion of the computing industry has never been greater.

公司的核心架構和製造優勢從未如此有價值，運算產業的發展和擴張帶來的機會也從未如此巨大。

It's for those reasons that I'm confident that Intel will continue to invent, grow, thrive, and deliver the best technology to a world increasingly hungry for the products of the microprocessor revolution.

正是由於這些原因，我相信英特爾將繼續發明、發展、繁榮，並向日益渴望微處理器革命產品的世界提供最好的技術。

With that, let me turn the meeting over to Stacy.

就這樣，讓我把會議交給史黛西。

Thanks, Paul.

謝謝，保羅。

I'd like to take a minute and talk about what we're seeing in each of the segments of our business, and our expectations as we look forward to the rest of the year.

我想花一點時間談談我們在每個業務領域所看到的情況，以及我們對今年剩餘時間的期望。

Starting with the PC Client Group, PC Client volumes were down seasonally in the first quarter, consistent with our expectations.

從 PC 用戶端組開始，第一季 PC 用戶端銷售出現季節性下降，這與我們的預期一致。

In addition, we believe the worldwide PC supply chain saw a continued reduction in inventory levels in the first quarter, as customers decreased inventory of older-generation PCs.

此外，我們認為第一季全球個人電腦供應鏈的庫存水準持續下降，因為客戶減少了老一代個人電腦的庫存。

In the second quarter we will launch Haswell, enabling a new wave of ultra-sleek designs across multiple form factors by our customers.

在第二季度，我們將推出 Haswell，為我們的客戶帶來跨多種外形尺寸的新一波超時尚設計。

We believe the combination of an improving macroeconomic environment, Haswell coming to the market, ultra-mobile form factors like ultrabooks, convertibles and tablets, and touch-enabled devices leads to a return to growth in the second half of this year.

我們相信，宏觀經濟環境的改善、Haswell 的上市、超級本、變形本和平板電腦等超移動外形因素以及觸控設備的結合將導致今年下半年恢復成長。

Moving to the Data Center Group, Data Center Group revenue in the first quarter grew 7% from a year ago.

轉向資料中心集團，第一季資料中心集團營收年增7%。

On a year-on-year basis, we saw significant growth in both the cloud and high-performance computing segments of the market.

與去年同期相比，我們看到雲端和高效能運算市場領域均顯著成長。

We continue to refresh our product lines to expand our offerings across all ranges of performance, performance per watt, and performance per watt per dollar.

我們不斷更新我們的產品線，以擴展我們的產品範圍，涵蓋所有性能範圍、每瓦性能和每美元性能每瓦。

At IDF Beijing last week, we announced that our Next-Generation Atom Processor for the microserver segment of the market, code-named Avoton, and our Ivy Bridge product for Xeon-class servers will be shipping in the second half.

上週在北京 IDF 上，我們宣布用於微型伺服器市場的下一代 Atom 處理器（代號 Avoton）以及用於 Xeon 級伺服器的 Ivy Bridge 產品將於下半年發貨。

These leadership products, coupled with our leading-edge process technology and the secular growth trends of the data center market, give us confidence in double-digit revenue growth for the year.

這些領先產品，加上我們領先的製程技術和資料中心市場的長期成長趨勢，讓我們對今年兩位數的營收成長充滿信心。

We are making significant progress in tablets and phones.

我們在平板電腦和手機領域取得了重大進展。

First quarter tablet volume more than doubled from the fourth quarter, and we expect it to double again in the second quarter.

第一季平板電腦銷售量比第四季成長了一倍多，我們預計第二季將再次翻倍。

We have shipping designs across both Windows 8 and Android operating systems.

我們已推出跨 Windows 8 和 Android 作業系統的設計。

In the second half we will launch Bay Trail, which will further extend our product line across screen sizes and price points.

下半年我們將推出 Bay Trail，這將進一步擴展我們的產品線，涵蓋螢幕尺寸和價位。

In the phone segment, we had a good first quarter in our baseband business.

在手機領域，我們的基頻業務第一季表現良好。

We are shipping LTE versions today, and are on track to ship multi-mode voice and data LTE baseband solutions by the end of the year.

我們今天開始交付 LTE 版本，並預計在今年年底之前交付多模語音和數據 LTE 基帶解決方案。

We are winning designs with our new Clover Trail+ apps processor, where customers and third parties are highlighting both the performance and power efficiency of our architecture, and are on track to ship our next-generation product, code-named Merrifield, by the end of the year.

我們憑藉新的 Clover Trail+ 應用處理器贏得了設計，客戶和第三方都強調了我們架構的性能和能源效率，並有望在 2020 年底之前推出代號為 Merrifield 的下一代產品。

In other important segments of our business, we saw year-on-year growth in both our Software and Services Group and our NAND business.

在我們業務的其他重要領域，我們的軟體和服務集團以及 NAND 業務都實現了同比成長。

Turning to our financials, first quarter revenue finished at $12.6 billion, in line with our expectations.

談到我們的財務數據，第一季營收為 126 億美元，符合我們的預期。

We are forecasting revenue of $12.9 billion for the second quarter, which is slightly higher than the average seasonal increase, as we expect some pipeline inventory replenishment as we launch Haswell, in anticipation of a stronger second half.

我們預計第二季營收將達到 129 億美元，略高於平均季節性成長，因為我們預計，隨著 Haswell 的推出，我們將補充一些管道庫存，預計下半年將更加強勁。

Gross margin of 56% was down 2 points from expectations.

毛利率為56%，較預期下降2個百分點。

Increased demand from our customers allowed us to increase production of Haswell products prior to qualification for sale.

客戶需求的增加使我們能夠在獲得銷售資格之前增加 Haswell 產品的產量。

The result of this was a higher than anticipated inventory write-off, which we expect to get back throughout the rest of the year, as the product is expected to qualify for sale in the second quarter.

其結果是庫存沖銷高於預期，我們預計該庫存沖銷將在今年剩餘時間內收回，因為該產品預計將在第二季度獲得銷售資格。

In addition, we saw higher than expected excess capacity charges on older-generation process technologies.

此外，我們也發現老一代製程技術的過剩產能費用高於預期。

We are taking advantage of the excess capacity on older-generation process technologies to take capacity offline, and reuse more equipment and space for 14-nanometer and beyond.

我們正在利用老一代製程技術的過剩產能，將產能下線，並為 14 奈米及更先進的製程重複利用更多設備和空間。

The results of these actions allows us to lower our capital spending forecast for the year by $1 billion, down to $12 billion.

這些行動的結果使我們能夠將今年的資本支出預測降低 10 億美元，降至 120 億美元。

In addition, our inventories decreased almost $400 million from fourth quarter.

此外，我們的庫存比第四季減少了近 4 億美元。

For the second quarter, we expect gross margin to increase 2 points to 58%, and the gross margin forecast for the year remains 60%, with gross margins in the second half back into the low 60%s.

對於第二季度，我們預期毛利率將提高2個百分點至58%，全年毛利率預測維持在60%，下半年毛利率將回到60%的低點。

Operating income for the first quarter was $2.5 billion, with earnings per share of $0.40.

第一季營業收入為 25 億美元，每股收益為 0.40 美元。

Taking a look at the balance sheet, total cash investments ended the quarter at $17.1 billion, down $1.1 billion from the fourth quarter.

從資產負債表來看，本季末現金投資總額為 171 億美元，比第四季減少 11 億美元。

The reduction in cash was a result of shifting almost $1 billion from short-term to longer-term investments.

現金減少是由於將近 10 億美元從短期投資轉向長期投資的結果。

In the first quarter, we generated approximately $4 billion in cash from operations, paid approximately $1 billion in dividends, purchased a little over $2 billion in capital assets, and repurchased $0.5 billion in stock.

第一季度，我們從營運中產生了約 40 億美元的現金，支付了約 10 億美元的股息，購買了略高於 20 億美元的資本資產，並回購了 5 億美元的股票。

As Paul said, our manufacturing leadership is extending, and gives us the world's lowest cost and lowest power transistors.

正如保羅所說，我們的製造領先地位正在擴大，並為我們提供了世界上成本最低和功率最低的電晶體。

In the first quarter, we shipped our first silicon to a foundry customer, and we announced a significant foundry design win with Altera, who will move their leading-edge products to our 14-nanometer process technology.

第一季度，我們向一家代工客戶發貨了第一塊晶片，並宣布與 Altera 取得重大代工設計勝利，Altera 將把他們的領先產品轉移到我們的 14 奈米製程技術上。

Building on this leadership, we are on track to start production on 14-nanometer process technology in the back half of this year.

憑藉這一領先地位，我們預計在今年下半年開始採用 14 奈米製程技術進行生產。

The combination of an improving macroeconomic environment, and new products coming to the market over the course of the year that take advantage of our manufacturing leadership, increase our confidence in being able to achieve financial growth in the second half of 2013.

不斷改善的宏觀經濟環境，以及年內不斷推向市場的新產品，充分發揮了我們在製造領域的領先地位，增強了我們對 2013 年下半年實現財務成長的信心。

With that, let me turn it back over to Mark.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回給馬克。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, Paul and Stacy.

謝謝保羅和史黛西。

Before we begin the Q&A, I do recognize that there are questions about the upcoming CEO transition.

在我們開始問答之前，我確實認識到人們對即將到來的執行長換屆存在疑問。

The selection process is on track, and the Board's goal remains to name a successor by the time Paul retires at the Annual Shareholder Meeting in May.

選拔過程正在按計劃進行，董事會的目標仍然是在保羅在五月的年度股東大會上退休時任命繼任者。

Beyond this, we won't be offering any additional commentary on the status of the process or the candidates today.

除此之外，我們今天不會對流程或候選人的狀態提供任何額外的評論。

Moving on to the Q&A, as is our normal practice, we would ask each participant to ask one question and just one follow-up if you have one.

接下來是問答環節，按照我們的慣例，我們會要求每位參與者提出一個問題，如果有問題，則只提出一個後續問題。

With that, Sandy, please go ahead and introduce our first questioner.

那麼，桑迪，請繼續介紹我們的第一位提問者。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Sumit Dhanda, ISI Group.

Sumit Dhanda，ISI 集團。

Yes, hi guys, and Paul, congratulations on a very successful career.

是的，大家好，保羅，恭喜您職業生涯非常成功。

Two questions for you.

有兩個問題問你。

Stacy, it seems like notebook ASPs were up a little bit sequentially, based on the data that you provided in the CFO commentary.

Stacy，根據您在財務長評論中提供的數據，筆記型電腦平均售價似乎有所上升。

Could you help us understand what that was due to?

您能幫助我們了解這是因為什麼造成的嗎？

Was it enterprise versus consumer mix, or was there a bigger proportion of touch that was shipped in the quarter?

是企業與消費者的組合，還是本季出貨的觸控螢幕比例較大？

Yes, I mean there wasn't very significant change quarter-on-quarter in terms of notebook ASPs, I would just characterize it as a fairly benign pricing environment.

是的，我的意思是，就筆記型電腦平均售價而言，季度環比沒有太大變化，我只是將其描述為相當良性的定價環境。

The way we characterized it at the beginning of the year is that we have, I think, a strong product position really across different form factors in the market, and it played out as we expected.

我認為，我們在今年年初對它的描述是，我們在市場上的不同外形因素中確實擁有強大的產品地位，並且它的表現正如我們預期的那樣。

So I'd characterize that as just not a lot of change from the way we saw things a quarter ago.

因此，我認為這與我們一個季度前看待事物的方式相比並沒有太大變化。

Okay.

好的。

And then for my follow-up, just on the server piece, you know, the last couple of quarters units were pretty flat and then volumes were down 6% in the calendar first quarter.

然後就我的後續行動而言，就伺服器而言，你知道，過去幾季的單位數量相當平穩，然後第一季的銷售量下降了 6%。

I would have thought with the easy comps, you might have seen a slightly better volume pick up in that business?

我以為透過簡單的比較，您可能會看到該業務的銷量略有回升？

Anything you could talk to with respect to why that did not occur?

對於為什麼沒有發生這種情況，您可以談談嗎？

Well, on a year-over-year comparison, units were up and ASP was up a little bit in the Data Center Group.

嗯，與去年同期相比，資料中心組的單位數量有所上升，平均售價也略有上升。

I think it's a little bit of an improvement of what we saw in the fourth quarter in the enterprise segment of the Data Center, and then we continue to see very robust growth rates across the high-performance computing and the big IP data centers that support the cloud.

我認為這比我們在第四季度看到的資料中心企業部分有所改善，然後我們繼續看到高效能運算和支援的大型 IP 資料中心的非常強勁的成長率雲端。

So a nice continuation of growth in those segments, and then a little bit better in the enterprise segment.

因此，這些細分市場的成長持續良好，然後企業細分市場的成長稍微好一些。

And as I just think forward to the back half of the year, my suspicion is we'll start to see the enterprise segment growing again just based on macroeconomic improvement.

展望今年下半年，我懷疑我們將開始看到企業部門僅基於宏觀經濟的改善而再次成長。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Sure.

當然。

Ambrish Srivastava, BMO Capital Markets.

Ambrish Srivastava，BMO 資本市場。

Thank you, and I'll echo what Sumit said, Paul.

謝謝你，我會重複蘇米特所說的，保羅。

It has been a pleasure interacting with you over the years.

多年來與您互動非常愉快。

All the best.

一切順利。

Couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

My first one is, Stacy, if you could please talk about the capacity.

我的第一個問題是，史黛西，請您談談容量。

How much of the CapEx is -- can be moderated lower, if the PC industry continues to be weaker than probably what you thought going into the year?

如果個人電腦產業今年的表現持續弱於您的預期，那麼資本支出的多寡可以降低？

So that's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Okay, you know, I'd say we're really well-positioned right now from a factory and a utilization standpoint, and let me just rewind what we did in the first quarter.

好吧，你知道，我想說，從工廠和利用率的角度來看，我們現在確實處於有利位置，讓我回顧一下我們在第一季所做的事情。

We saw that units were a little bit weaker than we expected, and our expectations came down a bit.

我們看到單位比我們預期的要弱一些，我們的預期也有所下降。

That allowed us to bring utilization down on some older-generation process technology.

這使我們能夠降低一些老一代製程技術的利用率。

You can see we brought our inventory levels down pretty significantly, and actually a bit more than I thought when I started the quarter, and we took $1 billion out of CapEx by rolling forward some older-generation technologies to offset things that we needed to buy for 14-nanometer and new process technologies.

您可以看到，我們的庫存水平顯著下降，實際上比我在本季度開始時想像的要低一些，並且通過推進一些老一代技術來抵消我們需要購買的東西，我們從資本支出中節省了10 億美元14 奈米和新製程技術。

In terms of your question of the levers that we have, I think that's a good example of how we can be responsive in a very tactical time horizon to changes in demand.

就你關於我們擁有的槓桿的問題而言，我認為這是一個很好的例子，說明我們如何在非常戰術的時間範圍內對需求的變化做出反應。

And as I look forward across the year, the prediction right now is we're going to run in a healthy rate of utilization, and in fact we're starting the quarter at that utilization rate.

當我展望全年時，現在的預測是我們將以健康的利用率運行，事實上我們在本季度開始時就以這個利用率運行。

I think inventories will continue to be healthy.

我認為庫存將繼續健康。

If demand turns out to be stronger, we have some white space that we can grow into, so we can respond up.

如果需求變得更強勁，我們就有一些可以發展的空白空間，這樣我們就可以做出反應。

If demand ends up being a little weaker than we thought, you saw the playbook in Q1, we can pretty quickly react and bring CapEx down if that's the case.

如果需求最終比我們想像的要弱一些，你可以看到第一季的劇本，如果是這種情況，我們可以很快做出反應並降低資本支出。

Okay, and my follow-up on the foundry strategy, maybe for Paul or for you.

好的，接下來是我對鑄造策略的後續報道，也許是為了保羅，也可能是為了你。

What's the long term vision?

長期願景是什麼？

Getting Altera was a feather in your cap, but then looking out ahead, what implications does that have for, A, business mix, and then also for the long-term margin structure for the Company?

收購 Altera 是你的榮幸，但展望未來，這對業務組合以及公司的長期利潤結構有何影響？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Well, I've described the strategy before as a crawl, walk, run strategy.

嗯，我之前已經將這個策略描述為爬行、行走、跑步策略。

We're past crawling.

我們已經不再爬行了。

We're in the mode of collecting serious customers.

我們正在收集認真的客戶。

The design win activity leads the announcement activity, as you'd expect in this business, and there are some other customers that we still have not yet publicly announced.

正如您在這項業務中所期望的那樣，設計獲勝活動領先於公告活動，並且還有一些其他客戶我們尚未公開宣布。

In terms of the business, as Stacy said I think last quarter, it will not have a significant revenue impact to the Company for two to three years.

就業務而言，正如史黛西上季度所說，我認為在兩到三年內不會對公司收入產生重大影響。

That's the design cycle for these products.

這就是這些產品的設計週期。

And in the case of someone like Altera, that tends to -- products tend to run for quite some time, so think of that as something that will start two-plus years from now and run for quite a number of years thereafter on several generations of technology.

對於像 Altera 這樣的公司來說，產品往往會運行相當長的一段時間，因此可以將其視為將從現在開始兩年多的時間，並在此後的幾代產品上運行相當長的時間。技術。

The business model that we have for the foundry assumes value-based pricing.

我們為代工廠制定的商業模式假設是基於價值的定價。

That is, the people that we are soliciting and the people that are attracted to us are those who see the advantages of our technology as it manifests itself in their products, and gives them an advantage in the marketplace.

也就是說，我們正在招募的人和被我們吸引的人是那些看到我們的技術優勢的人，因為它體現在他們的產品中，並為他們帶來了市場優勢。

So it's a healthy business for us.

所以這對我們來說是一項健康的業務。

Next question?

下一個問題？

John Pitzer, Credit Suisse.

約翰‧皮策，瑞士信貸。

Yes, Paul, let me add my congratulations and best wishes in the next phase of your life.

是的，保羅，讓我對你人生的下一階段表示祝賀和最美好的祝愿。

A couple questions here, guys.

夥計們，這裡有幾個問題。

First, just relative to what your units did in PCCG versus some third-party data, and kind of your commentary that you thought that the PC supply chain went through an inventory reduction, there seems to be a little bit of a mismatch where you guys have outperformed.

首先，相對於你們的單位在 PCCG 中的表現與一些第三方數據，以及你們認為 PC 供應鏈經歷了庫存減少的評論，你們的觀點似乎有點不匹配。

To what extent is that just netbooks not being classified in your PC group, and being classified in third-party data?

上網本在多大程度上沒有被歸類在您的 PC 類別，而被歸類在第三方資料？

To what extent is that emerging market strength perhaps picking up that the third-party data is not sort of capturing?

新興市場的強勢在多大程度上可能會增強，而第三方數據卻未能捕捉到這一點？

Yes.

是的。

Actually, I'll start -- this is Stacy.

事實上，我要開始了──這是史黛西。

I'll start this answer by saying we're -- when you take into account all of the different categories that the third parties are looking at, I'd say we are pretty aligned with how they view the year.

我首先要說的是，當你考慮到第三方正在考慮的所有不同類別時，我會說我們與他們對這一年的看法非常一致。

And so you start with the traditional PC segment of the market, we do expect that to be down.

所以你從傳統的個人電腦市場開始，我們確實預期這個市場將會下降。

We expect netbooks to be down significantly.

我們預計上網本銷售量將大幅下降。

You can see that in our other IAG results, and in fact it's getting close to zero.

您可以在我們的其他 IAG 結果中看到這一點，事實上它已經接近零。

I think that category is coming to the end of its life.

我認為這個類別的生命即將結束。

And then we see the -- some of the new form factors of computing that are growing significantly.

然後我們看到一些新的計算形式正在顯著成長。

I think Gartner would call those ultra-mobile devices, so things like ultrabooks, detachables, convertibles, we're seeing robust growth there.

我認為 Gartner 會將這些稱為超級行動設備，因此我們看到了超級本、可拆卸設備、敞篷車等設備的強勁成長。

And then we're now participating across a broad range of tablets between Windows 8 and Android, and with Bay Trail coming out, and then Merrifield behind that, we start to participate in a much broader set of screen sizes and price points than we are today.

然後我們現在參與了 Windows 8 和 Android 之間的各種平板電腦，隨著 Bay Trail 的推出，然後是 Merrifield 的支持，我們開始參與比我們現在更廣泛的屏幕尺寸和價格點今天。

And so when you net all of this up and you look broadly at the market for computing, you see some of the traditional form factors down, you see growth in these new form factors, you know, we get to kind of very slight unit growth for the year, and that's pretty consistent with how the third parties are viewing the year.

因此，當你將所有這些都匯總起來並廣泛觀察計算市場時，你會看到一些傳統的外形尺寸下降，你會看到這些新外形尺寸的增長，你知道，我們的單位增長非常輕微這與第三方對這一年的看法非常一致。

Perfect, that's helpful.

完美，很有幫助。

And then, Stacy, as my follow-on, just the operating profitability of DCG was down about 500 basis points sequentially, and I guess it's the lowest in the data set that I'm looking at.

然後，史黛西，作為我的後續，DCG 的營業利潤連續下降了約 500 個基點，我想這是我正在查看的資料集中的最低水平。

Is that incremental OpEx you guys try to broaden out into new areas like networking and storage?

你們嘗試將增量營運支出擴展到網路和儲存等新領域嗎？

Is that a gross margin problem?

這是毛利率問題嗎？

Can you help me understand the profitability?

你能幫我了解一下獲利能力嗎？

And when do we get back to kind of that 50% op margin that we saw maybe five quarters ago, if ever?

我們什麼時候才能恢復到五個季度前的 50% 營運利潤率（如果有的話）？

Yes, it's a combination of two things, and you'll notice, John, that it's also impacting PCCG.

是的，這是兩件事的結合，約翰，你會注意到它也影響 PCCG。

As we said at the beginning of the quarter, we had significant excess capacity charges that hit both PCCG and DCG, and we had a big increase in start-up costs as you'd kind of expect based on where we are in the 14-nanometer ramp, and those two business units are the ones that really drive both of those, and so that's where those costs hit.

正如我們在本季初所說的那樣，我們的產能過剩費用嚴重打擊了 PCCG 和 DCG，而且我們的啟動成本大幅增加，正如您根據我們在 14 世紀的情況所預期的那樣奈米斜坡，而這兩個業務部門是真正推動這兩個業務部門的，所以這就是這些成本的來源。

So as the gross margin improves -- so we expect that Q1 is the bottom, it's up a bit in Q2, and then in back half it's back into the low 60%s, you'll see the operating profit moving back into what you've historically come to expect in DCG.

因此，隨著毛利率的提高，我們預計第一季是底部，第二季會略有上升，然後在後半段又回到60% 的低水平，你會看到營業利潤回到你預期的水平。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Chris Danely, JPMorgan.

克里斯丹尼利，摩根大通。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

I guess my first question is on the foundry business.

我想我的第一個問題是關於鑄造業務的。

You know, Paul, you said the response has been tremendous.

保羅，你說過，反應是巨大的。

You've also in the past said that you probably wouldn't take any business that was ARM processor/potential competitor to yourself in the PC or the handset arena.

您過去也曾說過，您可能不會在 PC 或手機領域將任何 ARM 處理器/潛在競爭對手的業務納入自己的業務。

Has that stance changed at all?

這種立場有改變嗎？

No, it hasn't.

不，還沒有。

I think that the ground rules that we've laid out, which are -- I had three that I was looking at.

我認為我們制定的基本規則是——我正在考慮三個規則。

One is that it be value-based pricing, to take advantage of our technology.

一是基於價值的定價，以利用我們的技術。

The second is that we would not enable a chip competitor.

第二是我們不會啟用晶片競爭對手。

And the third, that we have not mentioned on the call yet today, is that it would be great if we could form a strategic relationship with that customer, so that it went beyond just a single foundry transaction.

第三，我們今天在電話會議上尚未提及的是，如果我們能夠與該客戶建立策略關係，從而超越單一代工交易，那就太好了。

Thanks, and then for my follow-up, as we look at the sequentials for Q1, Q2 this year, it's pretty similar to last year.

謝謝，然後是我的後續行動，當我們查看今年第一季、第二季的序列時，它與去年非常相似。

I know none of us want a repeat of the second half of last year.

我知道我們誰都不想重蹈去年下半年的覆轍。

Can you just maybe compare and contrast, and what gives you confidence that we're not going to see a repeat of last year in the second half of this year for sales?

您能否進行比較和對比，是什麼讓您相信今年下半年的銷售情況不會重演去年的情況？

Well, what gives me confidence in the second half of 2013 really comes down to two things.

嗯，讓我對 2013 年下半年充滿信心的因素其實有兩點。

One, we do expect that the macro environment will improve, that's consistent with what we're seeing from most economists now.

第一，我們確實預期宏觀環境將會改善，這與我們現在大多數經濟學家的看法一致。

You'd say that could be a repeat to what we've thought -- we thought last year.

你可能會說這可能是我們去年的想法的重複。

I think the world was expecting a stronger macroeconomic second half of '12 and it didn't materialize, but that is my belief right now.

我認為全世界都在期待 12 年下半年宏觀經濟會更加強勁，但它並沒有實現，但這是我現在的信念。

That will directly impact our Data Center business.

這將直接影響我們的資料中心業務。

There's a big portion of that business that really is correlated to GDP growth, when you look at it over a long period of time.

當你長期觀察時，這項業務的很大一部分確實與 GDP 成長有關。

And then, secondly, is our product portfolio, and we now participate across a broad range of devices, tablets and convertibles and detachables, and phones, although phones won't really drive the results in the second half.

其次是我們的產品組合，我們現在涉足廣泛的設備、平板電腦、可轉換和可拆卸設備以及手機，儘管手機不會真正推動下半年的業績。

And so we can embrace this broad market for computing now, and wherever the demand increases, we can participate in it.

所以我們現在就可以擁抱這個廣闊的運算市場，只要需求增加，我們就可以參與其中。

And a year ago, we were in the middle of that transition, and so as tablets ramped and in particular as Android tablets ramped, we really weren't in a position to participate in those segments of the market.

一年前，我們正處於轉型過程中，隨著平板電腦的普及，特別是 Android 平板電腦的普及，我們確實無法參與這些市場領域。

I'd add a third thing, Chris, which is I think that as the OEMs start looking at new form factors that they can design around our new chips, Haswell in particular, and maybe Bay Trail, and Windows 8 enabling touch, the explosion in form factors and the competitiveness of that platform is going to be substantially different, at price points down into the $300 or $400 range, enabling touch.

我要補充第三件事，Chris，我認為隨著OEM 開始考慮新的外形尺寸，他們可以圍繞我們的新晶片進行設計，特別是Haswell，也許還有Bay Trail 和支援觸控的Windows 8，爆炸式增長該平台的外形尺寸和競爭力將大不相同，價格將降至 300 美元或 400 美元範圍，支援觸控。

We didn't have that last year.

去年我們沒有這個。

So you go into the prime selling season with new products, new technologies, new form factors, and new capabilities at, up to now, unapproachable price points.

因此，您可以以迄今為止難以企及的價格點，以新產品、新技術、新外形尺寸和新功能進入黃金銷售季節。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Ross Seymore, Deutsche Bank.

羅斯·西莫爾，德意志銀行。

Hi guys.

嗨，大家好。

First of all, congratulations to Paul, and best of luck with retirement.

首先，恭喜保羅，祝他退休好運。

And then for my first question, moving on to the DCG side, again, I know you said, Stacy, that you're confident in double-digit growth for the year and that macro is a big part of it.

對於我的第一個問題，再次轉向 DCG 方面，史黛西，我知道您說過，您對今年的兩位數增長充滿信心，而宏觀經濟是其中的重要組成部分。

Is there any sort of granularity you can give us to get us across that bridge from what seemed to be a relatively weak start to the year, whether by the end markets within that segment or new products?

您是否可以為我們提供任何粒度的信息，幫助我們跨越今年開局相對疲軟的局面，無論是透過該細分市場的終端市場還是新產品？

Anything you can help us with would be great.

如果您能為我們提供任何幫助，那就太好了。

Yes, maybe it's useful, I'll give you a little bit color commentary on Q1, just so you can see what we're seeing in terms of growth rates.

是的，也許它很有用，我會給你一些關於第一季的彩色評論，這樣你就可以看到我們在成長率方面看到的情況。

We saw the -- if you look at the traditional enterprise segment of the market on a year-over-year basis, as I said earlier, it's growing a little bit but it's -- think of it as a pretty low growth rate, and that's compared to the last couple of quarters where we saw that market in decline.

我們看到，如果你逐年觀察市場的傳統企業細分市場，正如我之前所說，它正在增長一點，但可以將其視為相當低的增長率，並且與過去幾個季度相比，我們看到該市場正在下滑。

So I think you'd say it's improving, but it's not robust.

所以我認為你會說它正在改進，但並不穩健。

And then we continue to see very high rates of growth in things like the cloud and high-performance computing, and when I say high rates of growth, think of things in the 20%, 30%, 40% year-on-year unit growth rates in those segments of the market.

然後我們繼續看到雲端和高效能運算等領域的成長率非常高，當我說高成長率時，請考慮同比 20%、30%、40% 的成長率這些細分市場的成長率。

I think that second piece is really a secular driver, it's all these devices computing and connecting to the Internet driving the build-out of the cloud.

我認為第二部分確實是一個長期的驅動因素，所有這些設備的計算和連接到互聯網驅動了雲端的構建。

And then the first piece, I think, is improving and will likely improve into the second half.

然後，我認為第一部分正在改進，並且可能會在下半場有所改進。

Great, and I guess for my follow-up side of things, thinking a little bit about inventory and then how it plays along into utilization, you guys over the last two quarters have taken the better part of $1 billion out of your inventory.

太好了，我想對於我的後續工作，稍微考慮一下庫存以及它如何影響利用率，你們在過去兩個季度已經從庫存中取出了 10 億美元的大部分。

A year ago at this time you started ramping that back up, and then obviously demand was a problem, and you had to go back to the under-utilization side of things.

一年前的這個時候，你開始加大備份力度，然後顯然需求是一個問題，你必須回到使用率不足的方面。

Are you going to be a bit more cautious on the pace of utilization and inventory build this year, or are some of the things macro-wise and product-wise that are giving you confidence in the back half demand going to lead you to the same behavior, or just as aggressive a year ago?

您是否會對今年的利用率和庫存建設更加謹慎，或者宏觀和產品方面的一些因素是否會讓您對下半年的需求充滿信心，從而導致您達到同樣的目標？具有攻擊性？

Thank you.

謝謝。

No, I think we're on a path where inventory levels in the year, no more than what we have today and likely less than what we have today.

不，我認為我們今年的庫存水平不會超過今天的水平，也可能會低於今天的水平。

I think we're all learning how to operate more [efficiency].

我認為我們都在學習如何更有效率地運作。

Now it may go up a little bit in the second quarter as the various versions of Haswell qualify, which is part of the story for the Q1 margin miss, but yes -- and then we'll continue to manage things very lean.

現在，隨著 Haswell 的各種版本符合資格，第二季的價格可能會上升，這是第一季利潤率不如預期的部分原因，但是是的 - 然後我們將繼續非常精簡地管理事情。

And as I said as an answer to a question earlier, we're now in a really nice position where we have the capability to flex capacity up if we need to, and so they don't need to run with big inventory levels.

正如我之前回答問題時所說，我們現在處於一個非常好的位置，如果需要的話，我們有能力提高產能，因此他們不需要以大量庫存水準運作。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Jim Covello, Goldman Sachs.

吉姆‧科維羅，高盛。

Guys, thanks so much for taking the question.

夥計們，非常感謝您提出問題。

First question, the last time PC units were at this level was Q2 '09, and your quarterly CapEx was less than $1 billion, it was $981 million.

第一個問題，上一次 PC 單位達到這個水準是 09 年第二季度，你們的季度資本支出不到 10 億美元，現在是 9.81 億美元。

The full year CapEx guidance implies you're going to be spending three times that amount in quarterly CapEx for the rest of this year.

全年資本支出指引意味著您將在今年剩餘時間內花費三倍於季度資本支出的金額。

Why do you need that much capacity, when units are at the same levels as then?

當單位數量與當時相同時，為什麼需要那麼多容量？

Well, let me put CapEx in maybe a broader context.

好吧，讓我把資本支出放在更廣泛的背景下。

First, if you take out the 450-millimeter, we're down $2 billion from where we were last year, a pretty significant reduction.

首先，如果去掉 450 毫米，我們比去年減少了 20 億美元，降幅相當大。

And if you just look at our capital spending as a percent of revenue relative to the last several years, we're in the high teens, and the last couple years we've been in the low 20%s, so I think we're kind of in the range.

如果你只看我們的資本支出相對於過去幾年的收入的百分比，我們處於高位，而過去幾年我們一直處於低位 20%，所以我認為我們'有點在範圍內。

And you compare that against some of the people we compare against, a TSMC or a Samsung, they're spending some significant multiple of CapEx relative to revenue to what we are.

與我們比較的一些人（台積電或三星）進行比較，他們的資本支出相對於我們的收入而言是顯著倍數。

So I think we're spending the right amount.

所以我認為我們的支出是正確的。

I think we can be responsive if the market ends up a little bit weaker.

我認為如果市場最終稍微疲軟，我們可以做出反應。

I think we have the ability to flex up if the market ends up being stronger.

我認為，如果市場最終走強，我們有能力靈活應對。

I'm very comfortable with our positioning.

我對我們的定位非常滿意。

And as I just discussed with Ross, the operational indicators look really good.

正如我剛剛與羅斯討論的那樣，營運指標看起來非常好。

I think we can -- we're at a healthy level of inventory.

我認為我們可以——我們的庫存處於健康水平。

We brought it down another $400 million this quarter.

本季我們又減少了 4 億美元。

We're running healthy utilization, and I expect both of those to continue through the year.

我們正在運行健康的利用率，我預計這兩種情況將持續到今年。

I absolutely appreciate the perspective around the numbers, but it still doesn't really answer why it needs to be 3 times higher than when units were at the same level?

我絕對欣賞這些數字的觀點，但它仍然沒有真正回答為什麼它需要比單位處於同一水平時高 3 倍？

Well, I think if you do any quarter compare, you are going to -- capital spending tends to be over a long period of time, so if you look at it on an annual basis, what we're forecasting for this year is kind of down a little bit on a percent of revenue relative to what we spent in '10, '11 and '12.

好吧，我認為如果你對任何一個季度進行比較，你會發現——資本支出往往會持續很長一段時間，所以如果你以年度為基礎來看，我們對今年的預測是好的與我們在10 年、11 年和12 年的支出相比，收入百分比略有下降。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

2009 -- just 2009 is a weird comparison point, because you're in the aftermath of the financial meltdown.

2009 年—僅僅 2009 年是一個奇怪的比較點，因為你正處於金融危機的餘波之中。

And as we disclosed to you at that time, that gave us the ability to roll forward entire factories full of equipment from one process generation to the next, so I think if you choose that particular time period you're going to get a weird compare.

正如我們當時向您透露的那樣，這使我們能夠將充滿設備的整個工廠從一個流程代推進到下一代流程，所以我認為如果您選擇那個特定時間段，您將會得到一個奇怪的比較。

Okay, I was just picking it because that's the last time units were at this level, but I understand.

好吧，我只是選擇它，因為這是單位最後一次達到這個級別，但我理解。

That's helpful, thank you.

這很有幫助，謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

David Wong, Wells Fargo.

大衛黃，富國銀行。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Just to clarify some of the numbers, you mentioned the 450-millimeter spending.

為了澄清一些數字，您提到了 450 毫米的支出。

Is that still assumed to be about $2 billion for this year, and therefore your spending on your core CapEx for this year is planned to be about $10 billion, down from $11 billion last year?

是否仍假設今年約為 20 億美元，因此您今年的核心資本支出計劃約為 100 億美元，低於去年的 110 億美元？

Is that the way the numbers work?

數字就是這樣運作的嗎？

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And the other thing is in your full-year revenue guidance, can you give us any idea of roughly what percent of full-year sales might be related to tablets and smartphones, what's assumed for that?

另一件事是在您的全年收入指導中，您能否告訴我們全年銷售額的大約百分之多少可能與平板電腦和智慧型手機相關，對此有何假設？

Yes.

是的。

Well, so let me take it at a higher level, David, and I'll get to that.

好吧，大衛，讓我從更高的層面來考慮，我會談到這一點。

But the short answer is smartphones is -- it doesn't move the needle for us from a revenue standpoint, as we've said.

但簡單的回答是，智慧型手機——正如我們所說，從收入的角度來看，它並沒有為我們帶來什麼改變。

We're in the design win phase there.

我們正處於設計獲勝階段。

Tablets is interesting, but I want to talk about that in the context of the broader market for computing.

平板電腦很有趣，但我想在更廣泛的計算市場的背景下談論它。

So let's start with the Data Center.

讓我們從資料中心開始。

It's about 20% of our revenue.

這大約占我們收入的20%。

We've said we expect it to be double-digit growth, so if you just do simple manager math, that says that just the Data Center is giving a couple of points, maybe a smidge more than that, to the Company's growth rate that we've said is low single digits.

我們已經說過，我們預計其增長率將達到兩位數，因此，如果您只進行簡單的經理數學計算，您會發現，僅數據中心就為公司的增長率帶來了幾個點，也許比這個多一點點我們說過是低個位數。

So just the Data Center kind of gets us there.

因此，只有資料中心才能幫助我們實現這一目標。

Within the broader market for computing, it's the answer that I gave John earlier, which is we're seeing a decline in some of the traditional form factors, we're seeing an increase in things like ultrabooks, convertibles, tablets, we're refreshing our product line there.

在更廣泛的計算市場中，這是我之前給約翰的答案，那就是我們看到一些傳統外形尺寸的下降，我們看到超極本、敞篷車、平板電腦等產品的增加，我們正在刷新我們的產品線。

When you net all that out, you get to some very modest unit growth across all of those devices.

當你把所有這些都考慮在內時，你會在所有這些設備上獲得一些非常適度的單位增長。

So think of that as being flattish, up a smidge, and then the rest of it is relatively small compared to those two businesses, and that's how you get to low single-digit growth for the Company.

因此，可以將其視為持平，略有上升，然後與這兩項業務相比，其餘部分相對較小，這就是公司實現低個位數成長的原因。

Great, thanks very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Sure.

當然。

Vivek Arya, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Vivek Arya，美銀美林。

Thanks for taking my question, and thanks and best wishes to you, Paul.

感謝您提出我的問題，並向您致以最良好的祝愿，保羅。

My first question is so far, Windows 8 traction has been well below expectations relative to your last earnings call, so what specifically in Haswell can help turn it around?

我的第一個問題是，到目前為止，與上次財報電話會議相比，Windows 8 的吸引力遠低於預期，那麼 Haswell 有何具體措施可以幫助扭轉局面？

And can you give us a sense of how your customers are thinking about how they will roll out products when Haswell comes out?

您能否讓我們了解一下，當 Haswell 推出時，您的客戶如何考慮如何推出產品？

What will really change in the landscape to improve PC market traction?

到底什麼才能真正改變格局以提高個人電腦市場的吸引力？

Well, with Haswell, there's a number of things.

嗯，對於 Haswell，有很多事情。

First of all, the overall performance grows up, the graphics performance goes up, as well as the integer performance.

首先是整體效能的提升，圖形效能的提升，還有整數效能的提升。

So it's a better punch in the package than we've had with Ivy Bridge, point one.

因此，第一點，它比我們在 Ivy Bridge 上的表現更好。

Point two, the power envelope or the battery life for that level of performance is exceptionally better than Ivy Bridge.

第二點，此性能等級的功率範圍或電池壽命比 Ivy Bridge 更好。

Third, it gets into the form factor innovation and the integration of touch that I spoke about earlier, which I think is really part of the recipe required for Win 8 adoption.

第三，它涉及我之前談到的外形創新和觸控集成，我認為這確實是採用 Win 8 所需的秘訣的一部分。

I recently converted personally to Windows 8 with touch, and it is a better Windows than Windows 7 in the desktop mode when you implement the touch and the touch-based applications and operating environment.

我最近個人轉換為具有觸控功能的Windows 8，當您實現觸控以及基於觸控的應用程式和操作環境時，在桌面模式下它是比Windows 7更好的Windows。

It's just a lot easier to use.

它只是更容易使用。

There is an adoption curve, and once you get over that adoption curve, I don't think you go back.

有一個採用曲線，一旦你克服了這個採用曲線，我認為你就不會回去了。

So we didn't quite have that same kind of adoption curve in Windows 7 versus XP before it.

因此，與先前的 XP 相比，我們在 Windows 7 中並沒有完全採用相同的採用曲線。

This requires a little bit of training, and I think people are attracted to touch, and the touch price points today are still fairly high, and they're coming down very rapidly over the next couple of quarters.

這需要一點培訓，我認為人們被觸摸所吸引，今天的觸摸價格仍然相當高，並且在接下來的幾個季度中很快就會下降。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks, Paul.

謝謝，保羅。

And as my follow-up, Stacy, the buyback slowed down to I think about $0.5 billion in the last quarter; you were above $1 billion-plus in prior quarters.

作為我的後續行動，史黛西，上個季度的回購速度放緩至約 5 億美元；前幾季的營收超過 10 億美元。

How should we think about buyback activity for this year?

我們該如何看待今年的回購活動？

How should we just think about overall use of cash for this year?

我們該如何考慮今年的現金整體使用情況？

Yes, and as I think you know, we don't share prospectively the -- what we're planning to do with the buyback, just as a matter of policy.

是的，正如我想你知道的那樣，我們不會前瞻性地分享我們計劃如何回購，這只是一個政策問題。

What I can share with you is that our priorities are still the priorities that we've been talking about.

我可以與大家分享的是，我們的優先事項仍然是我們一直在談論的優先事項。

It's invest in our business, first.

首先是投資我們的業務。

It's dividend, second, and I've shared with you the expectation that we want a dividend that's on the order of 40% of free cash flow, and I think that's giving us a pretty good dividend yield today.

其次是股息，我已經與大家分享了我們希望股息佔自由現金流 40% 左右的預期，我認為這給我們帶來了相當不錯的股息收益率。

And then buybacks we use to -- as the other way to return cash to shareholders and to modulate cash balance, and so what you can take from less buybacks is just it's a bit uncomfortable with the cash balances.

然後我們使用回購——作為向股東返還現金和調節現金餘額的另一種方式，因此，你可以從減少回購中得到的只是現金餘額有點不舒服。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stacy Rasgon, Sanford Bernstein.

史黛西·拉斯岡，桑福德·伯恩斯坦。

Hi guys, thanks for taking my question.

大家好，感謝您提出我的問題。

Somebody already spoke before about your confidence now versus last year.

之前有人已經談到你現在與去年相比的信心。

But if I'm just looking over the last three months, we have weaker results in Q1, which raises the operational bar for the second half on both top line and gross margin, which suggests you're even more confident in that back half ramp than you were three months ago, even in the wake of what looks to be pretty challenging market data.

但如果我只看過去三個月，我們第一季的業績較弱，這提高了下半年營收和毛利率的營運標準，這表明您對下半年的成長更有信心與三個月前相比，即使在看似相當具有挑戰性的市場數據之後。

You're also taking CapEx down though, which would belie that increased confidence somewhat.

不過，您也降低了資本支出，這在一定程度上掩蓋了信心的增強。

I was just wondering, can you help me identify I guess the sources of that increased confidence in that back half ramp versus where you were three months ago, as well as help me rationalize that with the cut to the CapEx outlook?

我只是想知道，您能否幫助我確定與三個月前相比，後半段成長信心增強的根源，並幫助我透過削減資本支出前景來合理化這一點？

Sure.

當然。

First of all, just to make sure I'm not over-stoking things here, you really just need seasonal from where we are in order to achieve the low single-digit revenue growth.

首先，為了確保我沒有過度誇大事情，你真的只需要我們所處的季節性，就可以實現低個位數的收入成長。

So I don't think we have a hugely high bar out there, and I went through the section of where I think the revenue comes from.

所以我不認為我們有很高的標準，我瀏覽了我認為收入來源的部分。

In terms of the things that give me confidence that -- or at least I personally believe it could be better than seasonal, is improving macroeconomic environment -- it's the things we talked about.

就那些讓我有信心的事情而言，或者至少我個人認為，宏觀經濟環境正在改善，這可能比季節性更好，這就是我們所討論的事情。

Improving macroeconomic environment, it's the fact that we now are participating across a range of compute devices, and so the mix between those don't impact us nearly as much.

改善宏觀經濟環境，事實上我們現在正在參與一系列計算設備，因此這些設備之間的混合對我們的影響幾乎沒有那麼大。

And then third, as Paul said, you have innovative form factors coming out in ultrabooks, and convertibles and detachables, that are hitting these really compelling mainstream price points that are touch-enabled.

第三，正如保羅所說，超極本、敞篷車和可拆卸式筆記型電腦出現了創新的外形尺寸，這些產品達到了真正引人注目的觸控主流價格點。

And as we get into the Christmas selling season, I think our expectation is you will see touch-enabled ultrabooks that are $499 and $599 pretty commonly out there -- $599 commonly and $499 as kind of special SKUs.

當我們進入聖誕節銷售季節時，我認為我們的期望是您會看到價格為 499 美元和 599 美元的觸控式超級本，通常為 599 美元，特殊 SKU 為 499 美元。

And then we'll see -- because of Bay Trail coming into the marketplace, you'll see touch-enabled thin notebooks with really good performance that are hitting kind of $300 price points.

然後我們會看到，由於 Bay Trail 進入市場，您將看到具有良好性能的觸控式輕薄筆記型電腦，價格達到 300 美元左右。

And then with our Android tablets, you'll see things that are significantly -- half that.

然後，透過我們的 Android 平板電腦，您會看到重要的東西——只有一半。

So we're participating across this broad range of compute devices, as we get into the back half of this year.

因此，隨著今年下半年的到來，我們將參與廣泛的計算設備。

Got it, that's helpful.

明白了，很有幫助。

For my follow-up, I wanted to dig a little bit into the trajectory of your fab output.

對於我的後續行動，我想深入了解你們工廠產出的軌跡。

It sounds to me like your plan for loading is similar to what you had last quarter, which was I think full fabs in the second half.

在我看來，你們的裝貨計劃與上個季度的計劃類似，我認為下半年晶圓廠全部滿員。

It almost sounds like you may be running close to full right now.

聽起來你現在可能已經快滿了。

What does that mean for your expectations for how much your fab output may grow in 2014 year-over-year, given I would think you anticipate running full in 2014, and we were pretty lean in the first half -- in the part of 2013?

這對於您對 2014 年晶圓廠產量年增率的預期意味著什麼，因為我認為您預計 2014 年將滿載運轉，而我們在上半年（2013 年上半年）的產能相當精簡？

Would double-digit upside be the right way to think about that in terms of fab output, and how much of that increase might be inventory replenishment versus, I guess, demand upside?

就晶圓廠產量而言，兩位數的成長是否是正確的思考方式？

I think it's early to talk about 2014 at this point.

我認為現在談論 2014 年還為時過早。

We have the ability to respond to lots of different volume scenarios for 2014.

我們有能力應付 2014 年許多不同的數量情境。

If it's large, we can put on more capacity; if it ends up being less robust, we can play the playbook we've played --

如果容量大，我們可以放更多的容量；如果容量大，我們可以放更多的容量。如果它最終變得不那麼穩健，我們可以繼續我們已經玩過的劇本——

We've also got the technology transition to the 14-nanometer, those guys.

我們還實現了向 14 奈米技術的過渡，這些傢伙。

Up to a first order, all of our spending is focused on 14-nanometers, which gives us a fairly significant ramp capability.

直到第一個訂單為止，我們的所有支出都集中在 14 奈米上，這給了我們相當大的產能提升能力。

If demand for older products exceeds what we could build on 14, we could still build 22 for quite some time.

如果對舊產品的需求超過了我們可以在 14 上建立的產品，我們仍然可以在相當長的時間內建造 22。

So I don't -- I really think it depends on whatever demand scenario you see out there, and in any event the most important thing for us is to make that transition to 14, and just to have the leading edge.

所以我不——我真的認為這取決於你看到的任何需求場景，無論如何，對我們來說最重要的是過渡到 14，並且擁有領先優勢。

I understand that.

我明白那個。

Just mathematically, though, if I'm running full in 2014 and I was pretty empty in the first part of 2013, even if you're not adding a tremendous amount of capacity, doesn't that imply a very significant uptick in your fab output in '14 versus '13?

不過，從數學上來說，如果我在 2014 年滿負荷運轉，而在 2013 年上半年則相當空虛，即使您沒有增加大量產能，這是否也意味著您的晶圓廠產能將大幅提升'14 與'13 的輸出？

'13 is flattish to '12, and in '12 we already had too much, right?

'13 與 '12 持平，而在 '12 中我們已經太多了，對吧？

I'm just trying to -- mathematically what does it imply if you're running full in 2014, even if you don't add anything?

我只是想——從數學上來說，如果你在 2014 年運行滿負荷，即使你沒有添加任何東西，這意味著什麼？

We haven't talked about 2014.

我們還沒談論2014年。

Yes, and I think what your equation misses there is that we roll forward capacity, so we take capacity offline.

是的，我認為你的等式忽略了我們前滾容量，因此我們將容量離線。

And so think of the change in CapEx at a kind of first approximation of -- we took older generation technology offline a little faster than we thought, and we offset stuff that we were going to buy to make the transition and to build towards that 14-nanometer peak.

因此，考慮一下資本支出的變化，我們將老一代技術下線的速度比我們想像的要快一點，並且我們抵消了我們將要購買的東西以進行過渡並朝著 14 -奈米峰。

We don't actually have to choose the 14-nanometer peak today, we can continue to refresh capital.

今天我們實際上不必選擇14奈米峰值，我們可以繼續刷新資本。

I understand.

我明白。

I'm just saying if you're running full in 2014 and you're not full for '13, how much does -- how much would your output go out -- I'm forgetting transitions and 14-nanometers in CapEx.

我只是說，如果你在 2014 年已經滿負荷運行，而 13 年還沒有滿負荷運行，那麼你的輸出會消耗多少——我忘記了資本支出中的轉換和 14 納米。

Just on a rough basis, how much are we talking about in terms of increase?

粗略地說，我們所說的成長是多少？

If we're running full in 2014, I mean I'm not sure how to answer that question, because I don't yet know how much capacity we will put in place for '14.

如果我們在 2014 年滿載運行，我的意思是我不確定如何回答這個問題，因為我還不知道我們將為 14 年投入多少容量。

And Stacy, I think at that point we'll want to move on to the next questioner.

史黛西，我想那時我們會想轉向下一個提問者。

We'll be happy to follow-up with you a little bit later.

我們很樂意稍後與您聯繫。

Okay, thank you, guys.

好的，謝謝你們。

Doug Freedman, RBC.

道格‧弗里德曼，加拿大皇家銀行。

Hi, Stacy and Paul.

嗨，史黛西和保羅。

Thanks for taking my question, and Paul, congrats on the next phase of your life.

感謝您提出我的問題，保羅，祝賀您進入人生的下一階段。

In the past when you looked at Intel, you were successful because your customers were successful.

過去，當你關注英特爾時，你會成功，因為你的客戶成功了。

And right now, I think it's general perception that the PC ecosystem is really not in the greatest state of health.

目前，我認為人們普遍認為 PC 生態系統確實並未處於最佳健康狀態。

What is it that you think Intel can do to try to make your customers more successful in the marketplace?

您認為英特爾可以採取哪些措施來幫助您的客戶在市場上取得更大成功？

I think continue to give them the tools to innovate, and I wouldn't paint the entire customer base with the same brush that you just did, Doug.

我認為繼續為他們提供創新工具，我不會像你剛才那樣用同樣的畫筆來描繪整個客戶群，道格。

I mean, certainly if you look just at last quarter, even inside the PC space, Lenovo outperformed everybody else, and actually had a very good year-on-year set of numbers in a down year.

我的意思是，當然，如果你看看上個季度，即使在個人電腦領域，聯想的表現也優於其他所有人，並且實際上在低迷的一年中取得了非常好的同比數據。

Apple continues to do well.

蘋果繼續表現出色。

Some sets of customers in different segments are also doing very well, in terms of say those providing products into the Internet data centers.

不同領域的一些客戶也表現得很好，例如向網路資料中心提供產品的客戶。

What I see when we look out is a tremendous amount of innovation, particularly at the ODM and Taiwanese OEM side, where the ability to miniaturize and bring things into extremely thin form factors is really as revolutionary an amount of change as I've seen in my time in this industry.

當我們觀察時，我看到的是大量的創新，特別是在 ODM 和台灣 OEM 方面，其中將事物小型化並使其成為極薄外形的能力確實是革命性的，正如我在這個行業的時間。

And so I think what we can do is give them the products, like Haswell and Bay Trail, to innovate around.

所以我認為我們能做的就是為他們提供 Haswell 和 Bay Trail 等產品來進行創新。

We can help them with other feature sets like voice and speech that go around them, and just help them build better products.

我們可以幫助他們使用其他功能集，例如圍繞他們的語音和語音，並幫助他們建立更好的產品。

When I look at -- as my follow-up to that, when we look at sort of what we're seeing Intel do strategically, that is investing in things outside of what we call core PC, how do I try to quantify how big an investment you're willing to make in things such as the set-top box, or in the foundry efforts, or other areas of revenue that the Company is seeking?

當我看到——作為我的後續行動，當我們看到英特爾在戰略上所做的事情，即投資於我們所謂的核心 PC 之外的東西時，我如何嘗試量化有多大您願意在機頂盒、代工工作或公司尋求的其他收入領域進行投資嗎？

Well, I don't look at things quite that -- with that level of granularity.

嗯，我看待事物的方式並不是那麼細緻。

I think that in the foundry thing, the investment is really going to be taking advantage, at least near-term, with the current customer base of capacity that we are already putting in place.

我認為，在代工方面，至少在短期內，投資確實會利用我們已經到位的當前客戶群產能。

That doesn't mean that at some point, we won't have to actually build extra capacity for a foundry customer or the foundry business, but today, up to this point it's certainly within our ability to absorb.

這並不意味著在某個時候，我們實際上不必為代工客戶或代工業務建立額外的產能，但今天，到目前為止，這肯定在我們的吸收能力範圍內。

The set-top box spending, or the stuff we're doing at Intel Media, in the grand scheme of things is not a lot of spending.

機上盒支出，或者我們在英特爾媒體所做的事情，從總體上看並不是很多支出。

So the real issue is inside of our core microprocessor and platform development, and we're at the point now where roughly half of our spending is focused on system-on-chip inside the microprocessor world, and the system-on-chip environment is really a lot of the ultra-mobile products.

因此，真正的問題在於我們的核心微處理器和平台開發內部，而我們現在大約一半的支出都集中在微處理器領域內的系統單晶片上，而係統系統環境是超移動產品確實很多。

It's the phones, it's the tablets, it's embedded systems, it's automotive, et cetera, where we have fairly strong growth opportunities.

在手機、平板電腦、嵌入式系統、汽車等領域，我們擁有相當強勁的成長機會。

So it's not the same monolithic Tick-Tock model that we put in place eight years ago.

因此，這與我們八年前建立的整體 Tick-Tock 模型不同。

Great, thanks for the color.

太好了，謝謝你的顏色。

Operator, we'll go ahead and take two more questions.

接線員，我們將繼續回答兩個問題。

Joseph Moore, Morgan Stanley.

約瑟夫‧摩爾，摩根士丹利。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

My question is on the commentary that the pipeline inventory replenishment will be a driver for a slightly higher than seasonal Q2.

我的問題是關於評論，即管道庫存補充將推動第二季度略高於季節性。

Is that -- can you put some perspective on that?

那是——你能對此發表一些看法嗎？

It seems like you normally have new products in Q2, you normally have strength in Q3.

看起來你們通常在第二季就有新產品，通常在第三季就有實力。

Is there -- the current inventory level lean, or just how should we view that inventory replenishment comment?

目前的庫存水準是否偏低，或者我們應該如何看待庫存補充評論？

Well, I think inventory levels generally are lean everywhere we look.

嗯，我認為我們所看到的所有庫存水準通常都很低。

We saw an inventory burn in the broader pipeline in Q1, and our inventory levels are down more than I expected when I started the quarter, and down pretty significantly.

我們在第一季看到了更廣泛的庫存消耗，我們的庫存水準下降幅度超過了我在本季開始時的預期，而且下降得相當顯著。

So I think inventory levels are lean.

所以我認為庫存水準很低。

And I also want to put it in perspective, you're talking a minor difference; being up 3% quarter-on-quarter is kind of well within Q1 to Q2 seasonality.

我還想客觀地看待這一點，你所說的是一個細微的差別；季度環比成長 3% 完全符合第一季至第二季的季節性。

I don't think there's any one big driver there.

我不認為那裡有任何一位大司機。

I do think we'll see people putting in place some Haswell-based systems in anticipation of the second half selling season, just as they burned inventory on some of the older generation systems in the first quarter.

我確實認為，我們會看到人們在下半年的銷售季節中部署一些基於 Haswell 的系統，就像他們在第一季銷毀一些舊一代系統的庫存一樣。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

I just wanted to make sure I understood that.

我只是想確保我理解這一點。

And in terms of ultrabook, last year you had given pretty precise targets on where you wanted that to come out as a percentage of consumer notebooks.

就超級本而言，去年您就希望其在消費性筆記型電腦中所佔的比例給出了相當精確的目標。

To the extent that you're willing to talk about it, can you give us any kind of qualitative assessment of where you think those penetration numbers will go this year, and any kind of goals or targets that you may have?

如果您願意談論這個問題，您能否對您認為今年的滲透率數字的走向進行任何定性評估，以及您可能有的任何目標或具體目標？

I think what's interesting is what we're seeing, in that there's a market for ultrabooks.

我認為有趣的是我們所看到的，超級本有一個市場。

And it's a sizeable market, even if you look at Gartner data it's growing robustly.

這是一個相當大的市場，即使你看看 Gartner 的數據，它也在強勁成長。

But there's this reinvention going on just broadly across the notebook, and we're seeing now the percent of thin and light notebooks in the market relative to the total notebook market that are kind of in the order of one-third of the market, which -- and I think that grows from here as we hit price points.

但這種重塑正在筆記型電腦上廣泛進行，我們現在看到市場上的輕薄型筆記型電腦相對於整個筆記型電腦市場的百分比約為市場的三分之一，這——我認為，當我們達到價格點時，這一點就會成長。

So I think the reinvention of the form factor is well under way.

因此，我認為外形尺寸的重塑正在順利進行中。

Some of those are going to be more premium ultrabooks with touch, and then new form factors of convertibles and detachables.

其中一些將是更優質的觸控式超級本，然後是敞篷和可拆卸的新外形。

A big chunk of that is going to be that wedge of volume behind that, which are thin and light, touch-enabled notebooks that aren't categorized as ultrabook.

其中很大一部分將是其背後的體積楔子，即輕薄、支援觸控的筆記型電腦，不屬於超級本。

All of that is good for us.

所有這些對我們來說都是好事。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

And Sandy, if you would go ahead and introduce our last question?

桑迪，您能否繼續介紹我們的最後一個問題？

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company

提摩西‧阿庫裡 (Timothy Arcuri)，考恩公司

Hi, thanks.

你好謝謝。

I wanted to ask a question about the mix between bricks and mortar and any -- the equipment spending.

我想問一個關於實體和設備支出之間的混合的問題。

You had said before, when you had guided core CapEx minus the 450-millimeter spending of $11 billion, flat.

您之前曾說過，當您引導核心資本支出減去 110 億美元的 450 毫米支出後，持平。

You said that the equipment portion would be up pretty sizeable year-over-year.

您說設備部分將比去年同期大幅成長。

So since you've cut $1 billion out of that, will the equipment portion still be up or is it now down?

既然你已經削減了 10 億美元，那麼設備部分還會增加還是現在會減少？

You know, I haven't looked at that math.

你知道，我還沒看過數學。

You're right, the way I characterized it, we spent about 40% of our CapEx in 2012 on equipment.

你是對的，按照我的描述，2012 年我們將大約 40% 的資本支出花在了設備上。

That percentage came down in 2013.

2013 年這一比例有所下降。

More of the cut to CapEx was equipment than realignment of space, so I have to go back and look at the math.

資本支出的削減更多的是設備而不是空間的重新調整，所以我必須回去看看數學。

And that's something we would typically share with you in the November investor meeting, to just kind of give you a sense of where is the CapEx going, and then some color commentary of the next couple of years.

這是我們通常會在 11 月投資者會議上與您分享的內容，讓您了解資本支出的走向，然後對未來幾年進行一些彩色評論。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And then just the second thing, you just gave some price points for touch-enabled notebooks that -- I looked back at my notes, and you were previously saying $599 to $799 for touch-enabled notebooks, and now from what you just said, I think you were saying that you're going to have some at $499, with line-of-sight down to $300.

然後是第二件事，您剛剛給出了觸摸筆記本電腦的一些價格點- 我回顧了我的筆記，您之前說觸摸式筆記本電腦的價格為599 至799 美元，現在從您剛才所說的來看，我想你是說你會以 499 美元的價格購買一些，視線低至 300 美元。

That's quite a bit lower.

那是相當低了一點。

So I'm wondering, did something change, because at those price points you get a much different demand profile?

所以我想知道，是否發生了一些變化，因為在這些價位上你會得到截然不同的需求狀況？

He separated ultrabook versus notebook.

他將超級本與筆記本分開。

But he said touch-enabled notebook.

但他說的是觸控筆記本。

I understand.

我明白。

So we have a certain spec for ultrabooks, and that is the product that Stacy said is going to be centered as low as $599, with some SKUs at $499.

因此，我們對超級本有一定的規格，Stacy 表示產品的價格將低至 599 美元，部分 SKU 售價為 499 美元。

If you look at touch-enabled Intel-based notebooks that are ultra thin and light, using non-Core processors, those prices are going to be down to as low as $200 probably.

如果你看看基於 Intel 的觸控筆記型電腦，這些筆記型電腦超輕薄，使用非 Core 處理器，這些價格可能會低至 200 美元。

And I'd say that the big change over the last 12 months there is that Bay Trail is going to be a great product in that segment of the market.

我想說的是，過去 12 個月的巨大變化是 Bay Trail 將成為該細分市場中的出色產品。

We think it enables stunning performance relative to what the competition can bring, and it's going to enable these price points.

我們認為，相對於競爭對手而言，它能夠提供令人驚嘆的性能，並且它將實現這些價位。

And I'd say a year ago we didn't really have line-of-sight to hitting that, and today we're cleanly there.

我想說，一年前我們還沒有真正實現這一點，而今天我們完全做到了。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

All right, thank you, Sandy, and thank you all for joining us today.

好的，謝謝你，桑迪，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

Sandy, please go ahead and wrap up the call.

桑迪，請繼續結束通話。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude today's program.

今天的節目到此結束。

You may all disconnect.

你們都可以斷開連線。

Everyone have a great day.

每個人都度過了美好的一天。