ING Groep NV (ING) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. This is Laura, welcoming you to ING's 4Q 2025 conference call. Before handing this conference call over to Steven van Rijswijk, Chief Executive Officer of ING Group, let me first say that today's comments may include forward-looking statements such as statements regarding future developments in our business, expectations for our future financial performance and any statement not involving a historical fact.

早安.我是勞拉，歡迎各位參加ING 2025年第四季電話會議。在將本次電話會議交給 ING 集團首席執行官 Steven van Rijswijk 之前，我首先要說明的是，今天的發言可能包含前瞻性陳述，例如關於我們業務未來發展、對我們未來財務業績的預期以及任何不涉及歷史事實的陳述。

Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement. A discussion of factors that may cause actual results to differ from those in any forward-looking statement is contained in our public filings, including our most recent annual report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and our earnings press release as posted on our website today.

實際結果可能與任何前瞻性聲明中預測的結果有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性聲明中的結果存在差異的因素的討論，請參閱我們的公開文件，包括我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的 20-F 表格年度報告以及我們今天在網站上發布的盈利新聞稿。

Furthermore, nothing in today's comments constitutes an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Good morning, Steven. Over to you.

此外，今天的評論中的任何內容均不構成出售任何證券的要約或購買任何證券的要約邀請。早安，史蒂文。接下來該你了。

Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our results call for the fourth-quarter of 2025. I hope you're all well, and thank you for joining us today. As usual, I'm joined by our CRO, Ljiljana Cortan; and our CFO, Tanate Phutrakul.

非常感謝接線生。早上好，歡迎參加我們2025年第四季業績電話會議。希望你們一切都好，感謝你們今天加入我們。與我一同出席的還有我們的首席營收長 Ljiljana Cortan 和財務長 Tanate Phutrakul。

And today, I'm proud to walk you through another year of outstanding commercial growth and financial performance driven by the continued execution of our strategy.

今天，我很榮幸地向大家介紹過去一年來，在持續執行我們的策略推動下，我們取得了另一個卓越的商業成長和財務表現。

These results strengthen our confidence in the year ahead, as reflected in our outlook for 2026, and I will also share our updated and upgraded outlook for 2027, which further underlines the strength and resilience of our business.

這些業績增強了我們對未來一年的信心，正如我們對 2026 年的展望所反映的那樣，我還會分享我們更新和升級後的 2027 年展望，這進一步凸顯了我們業務的實力和韌性。

After that, Tanate will give you more insight into our income and cost expectations for 2026 and present the quarterly financials. And as always, we will be happy to take your questions at the end of the call. And with that, let's now move to slide 2.

之後，Tanate 將為您詳細介紹我們對 2026 年的營收和成本預期，並展示季度財務數據。像往常一樣，我們很樂意在通話結束時回答您的問題。接下來，我們來看第二張投影片。

This slide highlights the continued commercial momentum we saw in the fourth-quarter with outstanding growth across all key markets. We added more than 350,000 mobile primary customers during the quarter, bringing total growth for the year to over 1 million, fully in line with the ambitious target we set at our Capital Markets Day.

這張投影片突顯了我們在第四季看到的持續商業勢頭，所有主要市場都實現了卓越的成長。本季我們新增了超過 35 萬名行動主用戶，使全年總成長量超過 100 萬，完全符合我們在資本市場日設定的雄心勃勃的目標。

Loan growth was also robust with absolute growth doubling versus the prior year and resulting in an 8.3% increase since the start of the year. In the fourth-quarter alone, retail banking delivered EUR10.1 billion in net core lending growth, driven mainly by residential mortgages.

貸款成長也十分強勁，絕對成長量比前一年翻了一番，自年初以來成長了 8.3%。僅在第四季度，零售銀行業務的核心貸款淨成長就達到了 101 億歐元，主要得益於房屋抵押貸款的成長。

Wholesale Banking added EUR10.3 billion, supported by strong demand in lending and working capital solutions as our clients' financing needs increased. We also saw healthy deposit development. Core deposits rose by EUR38.1 billion for the full year or 5.5%.

批發銀行業務新增103億歐元，得益於客戶融資需求增加，貸款和營運資金解決方案的強勁需求。我們也看到了健康的儲量成長。全年核心存款增加381億歐元，成長5.5%。

In the fourth-quarter, retail banking contributed EUR11.3 billion, benefiting from targeted campaigns and normal seasonal inflows and Wholesale Banking recorded a small net outflow, mainly due to lower short-term balances in our cash pooling activities.

第四季度，零售銀行業務貢獻了 113 億歐元，受益於有針對性的行銷活動和正常的季節性資金流入；批發銀行業務則錄得少量淨流出，主要是由於現金池活動中的短期餘額減少。

Fee income also continued the positive trends. For the full year, fees grew by 15%, supported by continued customer growth and increased cross-sell, essentially doing more business with more customers. And the fourth-quarter also included a one-off benefit of EUR66 million.

手續費收入也持續維持成長動能。全年費用增加了 15%，這得益於客戶的持續成長和交叉銷售的增加，本質上就是與更多客戶開展更多業務。第四季還包括一次性收益 6,600 萬歐元。

All of this translated into very solid financial results. Our return on equity for 2025 was 13.2%, well above the guidance provided at the start of the year. And finally, we remain fully committed to supporting our clients in their sustainability transitions.

所有這些都轉化為非常穩健的財務表現。我們 2025 年的股本報酬率為 13.2%，遠高於年初所給的預期。最後，我們將持續全力支持客戶實現永續發展轉型。

Our total sustainability volume mobilized reached EUR166 billion for the year, representing a 28% increase versus 2024. Now let's move to the next slide to look at how the commercial momentum drove our financial performance. On slide 3, you can see that commercial NII remained very strong at EUR15.3 billion.

本年度我們調動的永續發展資金總額達到 1,660 億歐元，比 2024 年成長 28%。現在讓我們來看看下一張投影片，了解商業動能如何推動了我們的財務表現。從幻燈片 3 可以看出，商業淨利息收入 (NII) 仍然非常強勁，達到 153 億歐元。

This result was supported by the significant increase in customer balances, both on the lending side and in liabilities. The volume growth largely offset the expected margin normalization. Fee income was also strong, increasing 15% compared to 2024, and they now account for 20% of total income.

這一結果得到了客戶餘額（包括貸款餘額和負債餘額）大幅增加的支持。銷量成長在很大程度上抵消了預期中的利潤率正常化。手續費收入也表現強勁，與 2024 年相比成長了 15%，目前佔總收入的 20%。

And this reflects structural drivers such as customer growth and increased cross-sell. Investment products performed particularly well with strong increases across all metrics, the number of customers, assets under management and the number of trades.

這反映了客戶成長和交叉銷售增加等結構性驅動因素。投資產品表現尤為出色，各項指標均大幅成長，包括客戶數量、管理資產規模及交易筆數。

And taken together, the strong NII and fee performance fueled total income growth, which reached a record level for the third consecutive year. And with that, let's now move to slide 4.

綜合來看，強勁的淨利息收入和手續費收入推動了總收入的成長，連續第三年創下歷史新高。接下來，我們來看第 4 張投影片。

On this slide, we highlight actions taken to strengthen operational leverage, reinforcing our disciplined approach to cost management. We continue to invest in growth and diversification while increasingly leveraging new technologies.

在本投影片中，我們重點介紹了為加強營運槓桿作用所採取的行動，強化了我們嚴謹的成本管理方法。我們將繼續投資於成長和多元化，同時不斷利用新技術。

We were able to offset these investments by enhanced operational efficiency as the model becomes more scalable. In 2025, for example, we reduced customer friction by increasing the share of customer journeys handled without any manual intervention.

隨著該模式的可擴展性增強，我們透過提高營運效率來抵消了這些投資。例如，到 2025 年，我們透過增加無需人工幹預即可處理的客戶旅程的比例，減少了客戶摩擦。

We also introduced our chatbot in several retail markets, providing customers with faster and more accurate answers in their questions and resulting in annual savings as a large part of the chats are resolved without any human support.

我們也在多個零售市場推出了聊天機器人，為客戶提供更快、更準確的問題解答，並且由於大部分聊天問題無需人工幹預即可解決，因此每年可節省成本。

These improvements have contributed to a customer experience that is highly appreciated as reflected in our strong NPS positions across all markets. In retail banking, we maintained our number one position in 5 out of 10 markets.

這些改進提升了客戶體驗，並因此獲得了高度讚賞，這體現在我們在所有市場中都取得了優異的 NPS 排名。在零售銀行業務方面，我們在 10 個市場中的 5 個市場保持了第一的位置。

And in Wholesale Banking, we achieved an NPS of 77, demonstrating both the quality of our client service and the value of our continued investments in expertise and sector knowledge. And our investments in scalability are also translating into higher efficiency, and this is visible in our FTE over customer balances ratio, which has improved by more than 7% since 2023.

在批發銀行業務方面，我們的淨推薦值 (NPS) 達到了 77，這不僅體現了我們客戶服務的質量，也體現了我們對專業知識和行業知識的持續投資的價值。我們在可擴展性方面的投資也轉化為更高的效率，這一點從我們的 FTE 與客戶餘額比率中可以看出，自 2023 年以來，該比率已提高了 7% 以上。

Then we move to slide 5, where we show how our robust commercial growth, strong development of total income and proactive cost measures have resulted in strong capital generation. Over the past year, we delivered more than EUR6.3 billion in net profit, contributing almost 2-percentage-points to our CET1 ratio.

然後我們來看第 5 張投影片，其中展示了我們強勁的商業成長、總收入的強勁發展以及積極的成本控制措施如何帶來了強勁的資本累積。過去一年，我們實現了超過 63 億歐元的淨利潤，使我們的 CET1 比率提高了近 2 個百分點。

And of this EUR6.3 billion, 50% is distributed as a regular cash dividend, offering shareholders an attractive and predictable cash yield. Around 50% of the capital we generated has been used to fund profitable growth across our markets, and this percentage would even have been higher without the steps we took to optimize capital efficiency in Wholesale Banking, such as the 2 SRT transactions completed in November.

在這 63 億歐元中，50% 將以定期現金股息的形式分配給股東，為股東提供有吸引力且可預測的現金收益。我們所創造的資本中約有 50% 已用於為我們各個市場的盈利增長提供資金，如果沒有我們為優化批發銀行業務的資本效率而採取的措施（例如 11 月份完成的 2 筆 SRT 交易），這一比例還會更高。

Finally, we announced additional distributions to a total amount of EUR3.6 billion, which also helped bring our CET1 ratio closer to our target level. And on the next slide, I will show how these distributions have resulted in a higher, highly attractive shareholder return.

最後，我們宣布追加分配，總額達到 36 億歐元，這也幫助我們將 CET1 比率提升至目標水準。在下一張投影片中，我將展示這些分配如何帶來更高、更具吸引力的股東回報。

And then we move to slide 6, where we summarize the total distributions to shareholders, and I will build on what I just discussed. In line with the distribution policy, we have consistently paid cash dividends and have been executing share buybacks for several years.

接下來我們來看第 6 張投影片，其中總結了分配給股東的總金額，我將在此基礎上繼續討論。根據分配政策，我們持續派發現金股息，並且多年來一直在進行股票回購。

Together, these actions have consistently delivered a highly attractive yield, including in 2025, a year in which our share price increased by almost 60%. The share buyback program we announced in November is currently underway and is expected to be completed in April 2026.

這些措施共同帶來了極具吸引力的收益，包括 2025 年，那一年我們的股價上漲了近 60%。我們在 11 月宣布的股票回購計畫目前正在進行中，預計將於 2026 年 4 月完成。

And in addition, we paid out EUR500 million in cash earlier in January, which helps us to meet the cash hurdle for this year, now finalized at EUR3.3 billion. Looking ahead, we remain fully committed to delivering strong shareholder returns, and we will provide an update on our capital planning with our first-quarter 2026 results.

此外，我們在 1 月初支付了 5 億歐元現金，這有助於我們達到今年的現金目標，目前已最終確定為 33 億歐元。展望未來，我們將繼續全力以赴為股東帶來豐厚回報，並將於 2026 年第一季業績報告中公佈我們的資本規劃最新進展。

And now starting on slide 8, I will guide you through how our strategy continues to accelerate growth, increase impact and deliver value. Now on this slide, I'm talking about slide 8, we highlight our key strategic priorities supporting our Growing the Difference strategy, building on our successes over the past years.

現在從第 8 張投影片開始，我將帶您了解我們的策略如何持續加速成長、擴大影響力並創造價值。現在，在這張投影片上，我指的是第 8 張投影片，我們重點介紹了支持我們「擴大差異」策略的關鍵策略重點，以鞏固我們過去幾年的成功。

Firstly, we will continue to grow and diversify our income by adding more customers and doing more business with them. And a good example is the further expansion of our investment product offering.

首先，我們將繼續透過增加客戶數量和與他們開展更多業務來發展和多元化我們的收入來源。一個很好的例子就是我們投資產品範圍的進一步擴大。

We have also introduced a subscription model for retail clients in Romania, and we will roll out this concept in other markets as well, which will help grow income from daily banking services. Our affluent customer base continues to grow rapidly, and we see further growth potential, and we're targeting this with dedicated propositions designed specifically for their needs.

我們也為羅馬尼亞的零售客戶推出了訂閱模式，並將將此理念推廣到其他市場，這將有助於增加日常銀行服務的收入。我們的高淨值客戶群持續快速成長，我們看到了進一步的成長潛力，因此我們專門針對他們的需求設計了專屬方案來滿足這項需求。

We're also stepping up our engagement with younger generations. For example, we introduced new products for Gen Z, including an investment fund focused on improving financial awareness within this group.

我們也在加強與年輕一代的互動。例如，我們為 Z 世代推出了新產品，其中包括一個專注於提高該群體金融意識的投資基金。

And in business banking, we successfully launched our propositions in Italy and Germany, where we are seeing strong and ongoing customer growth. And in Wholesale Banking, we are expanding our range of fee-generating capital-light products to support sustainable and diversified revenue growth.

在商業銀行業務方面，我們已成功在義大利和德國推出我們的服務，並在這些國家實現了強勁且持續的客戶成長。在批發銀行業務方面，我們正在擴大收費型輕資本產品的範圍，以支持可持續和多元化的收入成長。

Now secondly, we will further improve our operational leverage by scaling processes, people and technology while maintaining strict cost discipline to further utilization and scale of Gen AI will enhance efficiency and will help us to reach our FTE over customer balances target ahead of schedule.

其次，我們將透過擴大流程、人員和技術規模，同時保持嚴格的成本控制，進一步提高營運槓桿，從而進一步利用和擴大 Gen AI 的規模，提高效率，並幫助我們提前實現 FTE 與客戶餘額的目標。

Finally, we remain firmly focused on generating strong capital going forward, and our allocation priorities are well defined in that regard. We will maintain an attractive shareholder return supported by a 50% payout policy.

最後，我們將繼續堅定地專注於創造強勁的資本，在這方面，我們的資金配置重點已經明確。我們將維持對股東具有吸引力的回報，並實施 50% 的股利政策。

Secondly, we will continue to invest in value-accretive growth, diversify income streams as fund the loan book and a capital-efficient way and consider M&A opportunities that meet our criteria. And thirdly, we will return any capital structurally above our CET1 target to shareholders.

其次，我們將繼續投資於增值成長，實現收入來源多元化，為貸款組合提供資金，並以資本高效的方式考慮符合我們標準的併購機會。第三，我們將把超出我們CET1目標的任何結構性資本返還給股東。

We will also further increase the capital we allocate to retail banking and optimize the capital usage in the Wholesale Bank and note that we have already increased the capital allocated to retail banking to 54%. And with our strategy, we are confident in our ability to become the best European bank.

我們還將進一步增加分配給零售銀行業務的資本，並優化批發銀行業務的資本使用，值得注意的是，我們已將分配給零售銀行業務的資本增加到 54%。憑藉我們的策略，我們有信心成為歐洲最好的銀行。

And with this confidence, we have raised our expectations for the coming years. And then we move to slide 9. And then I'll present our outlook for '26 and '27.

憑藉這份信心，我們提高了對未來幾年的期望。接下來我們來看第9張投影片。然後我將介紹我們對 2026 年和 2027 年的展望。

And for 2026, we expect total income of around EUR24 billion, and this outlook is supported by continued volume growth and an anticipated 5% to 10% increase in fee income. Total operating expenses, excluding internals, sorry, incidentals are projected to be in the range of EUR12.6 billion to EUR12.8 billion.

預計到 2026 年，總收入將達到約 240 億歐元，這一預期將得到業務量持續增長以及預計手續費收入增長 5% 至 10% 的支持。不包括內部開支和雜項開支在內的總營運支出預計在 126 億歐元至 128 億歐元之間。

We will continue to manage our CET1 capital ratio at a target of around 13%. And in addition, we will transition from a return on equity metric to return on tangible equity.

我們將繼續把一級資本充足率控制在 13% 左右的目標水準。此外，我們將從股本回報率指標過渡到有形股本回報率指標。

And for the full year 2026, we expect an ROE of 14% and ROTE to be higher than 14% and note that the delta between the two metrics was around 40 basis points, 40 basis points in 2025. Then looking ahead at 2027, we are introducing a new outlook for total income.

對於 2026 年全年，我們預計 ROE 為 14%，ROTE 將高於 14%，並注意到這兩個指標之間的差異約為 40 個基點，2025 年為 40 個基點。展望 2027 年，我們將推出新的總收入展望。

We now expect it to exceed EUR25 billion, which is at the upper end of our previous target range. This income number includes a higher fee income outlook, which we now expect to exceed EUR5 billion in 2027. And we've moved away from the cost/income ratio and instead provide a clear hard outlook for operating expenses, again, excluding incidentals of around EUR13 billion.

我們現在預計這一數字將超過 250 億歐元，這已達到我們先前目標範圍的上限。這個收入數字包含了更高的手續費收入預期，我們現在預計到 2027 年手續費收入將超過 50 億歐元。我們不再使用成本/收入比率，而是提供清晰明確的營運費用展望，同樣不包括約 130 億歐元的雜項支出。

And this reinforces our continued focus on cost discipline and operational efficiency. And taken together, this outlook translates into a return on equity of 15% and a return on tangible equity of more than 15%.

這進一步強化了我們對成本控制和營運效率的持續關注。綜合來看，這一前景意味著股本回報率將達到 15%，有形股本回報率將超過 15%。

And now I'll hand over to Tanate, who will give more insight on our outlook for 2026 and who will walk you through the fourth-quarter financial results in more detail, starting on slide 10.

現在我將把發言權交給 Tanate，他將更深入地介紹我們對 2026 年的展望，並從第 10 張幻燈片開始，更詳細地向大家介紹第四季度的財務業績。

Thank you, Steven. As this is the last time I'll talk you through these numbers as the CFO of ING, I'm very pleased that I can close on such a strong result and provide you with an upgraded outlook. On slide 10, let's start with commercial NII, which will benefit from increasing support from the replication portfolio.

謝謝你，史蒂文。由於這是我最後一次以 ING 財務長的身份向大家講解這些數據，我非常高興能夠以如此強勁的業績收尾，並向大家提供更積極的展望。在第 10 張投影片中，我們先從商業 NII 開始，它將受益於複製組合提供的更多支援。

We also assume continued customer balance growth of around 5% per year, above the guidance that we gave at Capital Markets Day and reflecting the commercial momentum in our franchises. The liability margin is expected to be at the lower end of the 100 and 110 basis point range, while the lending margin is assumed to remain stable compared to the fourth-quarter.

我們也預期客戶餘額將繼續以每年約 5% 的速度成長，高於我們在資本市場日給予的指導意見，並反映了我們特許經營業務的商業動能。預計負債利差將處於 100 至 110 個基點區間的下限，而貸款利差預計與第四季相比將保持穩定。

Fees are expected to grow by a further 5% to 10%, building on the strong performance we achieved in 2025. All other income is expected to be around TRY 2.8 billion, excluding incidental items.

預計費用將進一步成長 5% 至 10%，延續我們在 2025 年取得的強勁業績。除雜項外，其他所有收入預計約 28 億土耳其里拉。

This is driven by continued strong performance in financial markets, while in treasury, we expect less income from foreign currency hedging given the current lower interest rate differential between the euro and other currencies such as the US dollar and the Turkish lira.

這主要得益於金融市場的持續強勁表現，而就國債而言，鑑於目前歐元與其他貨幣（如美元和土耳其里拉）之間的利率差較小，我們預計外匯對沖收入將會減少。

Based on the current rate environment, taking 2024 last quarter as a run rate would be a fair starting point. Taken together, total income is expected to reach around EUR24 billion in '26. And then on the next page, I'll walk you through the drivers behind the expected cost development.

根據目前的利率環境，以 2024 年最後一季的利率作為運作利率是一個合理的起點。綜合來看，預計 2026 年總收入將達到約 240 億歐元。接下來，在下一頁，我將帶您了解預期成本發展背後的驅動因素。

We expect total annual cost to be in the range of EUR11.6 billion to 11.8 billion, excluding incidental and regulatory costs. The main driver of the increase remains inflationary pressure, which will again predominantly impact staff expenses.

我們預計年度總成本將在 116 億至 118 億歐元之間，不包括附帶成本和監管成本。此次成長的主要驅動因素仍然是通膨壓力，這將再次主要影響員工支出。

We will also continue to make selective investment to support business growth and further improve efficiency, as Steven highlighted earlier. These investment costs will be more than offset by operational efficiencies driven by increased scalability of our processes, people and technology, further utilization and scaling of Gen AI and continued optimization of our footprint.

正如史蒂文之前所強調的那樣，我們將繼續進行有選擇的投資，以支持業務成長並進一步提高效率。這些投資成本將被營運效率的提高所抵消，而營運效率的提高將得益於我們流程、人員和技術的可擴展性增強，Gen AI 的進一步利用和擴展，以及我們業務佈局的持續優化。

Given the strong income outlook, this modest cost growth results in a positive jaw for the year. Now let's move to the quarterly financials starting on slide 13. On slide 13, you can see that our commercial NII increased driven by very strong volume growth and a slightly higher lending margin, while the liability margin remained stable.

鑑於強勁的收入前景，這種溫和的成本成長將使今年的下行風險變為正值。現在讓我們從第 13 張投影片開始，來看季度財務數據。從第 13 張投影片可以看出，由於交易量強勁成長和貸款利潤率略有提高，我們的商業淨利息收入有所增加，而負債利潤率保持穩定。

Fee income continues its upward trend, driven by customer growth and strong performance in investment products and insurance. This is more than offset by lower fee income in wholesale lending. As a reminder, fee income in the fourth-quarter included a EUR66 million one-off in Germany.

手續費收入持續成長，這主要得益於客戶成長以及投資產品和保險業務的強勁表現。批發貸款手續費收入的降低完全抵消了這種影響。需要提醒的是，第四季的費用收入包括來自德國的 6,600 萬歐元一次性收入。

All other income was supported by continued strong results in financial markets, although seasonally lower compared to the previous quarters. As a whole, total income came in 7% higher than the same period last year.

其他所有收入均得益於金融市場持續強勁的表現，儘管與前幾季相比，由於季節性原因有所下降。總體而言，總收入比去年同期成長了7%。

Now moving to slide 14, where we will show the development of customer balances. As you can see, we delivered another quarter of strong loan growth across both retail and wholesale banking. Net core lending increased by EUR20 billion.

現在轉到第 14 張投影片，我們將展示客戶餘額的變更。如您所見，我們在零售和批發銀行業務方面均實現了另一個季度的強勁貸款成長。淨核心貸款增加了200億歐元。

Retail banking contributed EUR10.1 billion, driven by continued mortgage growth, increases across both business lending and consumer lending portfolios. Wholesale Banking also posted strong growth of EUR10.3 billion, reflecting strong performance in lending and somewhat elevated client demand in working capital solutions.

零售銀行業務貢獻了 101 億歐元，這主要得益於抵押貸款的持續成長，以及商業貸款和消費貸款組合的成長。批發銀行業務也實現了強勁增長，達到 103 億歐元，反映出貸款業務的強勁表現以及客戶對營運資金解決方案的需求略有上升。

On the liability side, core deposit increased by 9.5 billion. retail banking drove the bulk of the growth, particularly in the Netherlands, Spain and Poland, which benefited from targeted campaigns and seasonal inflows.

負債方面，核心存款增加了95億歐元。零售銀行業務推動了大部分成長，尤其是在荷蘭、西班牙和波蘭，這些國家受益於有針對性的行銷活動和季節性資金流入。

Wholesale Banking saw a small net outflow as increased deposit volume in PCM were more than offset by lower short-term balances in our cash pooling business. The other category of deposits were impacted by seasonal reductions in treasury.

批發銀行業務出現小幅淨流出，PCM存款量的增加被現金池業務短期餘額的減少所抵銷。另一類存款則受到國庫季節性減少的影響。

On slide 15, you can see that the commercial NII grew by more than EUR100 million quarter-on-quarter and was almost 5% higher than last year. Lending NII was up EUR75 million in the fourth-quarter, driven by volume growth and a one basis point improvement in lending margin to 126 basis points.

從第 15 張投影片可以看出，商業淨利息收入較上季成長超過 1 億歐元，比去年同期成長近 5%。第四季貸款淨利息收入成長了 7,500 萬歐元，這主要得益於貸款量的成長以及貸款利潤率提高 1 個基點至 126 個基點。

The liability NII also increased by EUR30 million, supported by sustained volume growth in retail banking and higher net interest income from our cash pooling business and PCM in Wholesale Banking. Turning to slide 16. Fee growth remained strong, increasing 22% year-on-year.

負債淨利息收入也增加了 3,000 萬歐元，這得益於零售銀行業務的持續成長以及來自現金池業務和批發銀行 PCM 業務的淨利息收入增加。翻到第16張幻燈片。費用成長依然強勁，年增 22%。

Excluding the EUR66 million one-off retail banking fees in Germany, fees grew by 17% compared to last year. This was driven by structural factors such as continued customer growth, significantly higher insurance fees and increase in daily banking fees. Investment products also performed really well across several metrics.

如果排除德國一次性零售銀行業務費用 6,600 萬歐元，費用較去年增長 17%。這主要是由結構性因素驅動的，例如客戶持續成長、保險費大幅上漲以及日常銀行手續費增加。投資產品在多項指標上也表現優異。

For example, 9% growth in customers, 16% growth in assets under management, of which roughly half came from net inflows and 22% more trades. Although wholesale banking fees decreased sequentially, wholesale still delivered a strong quarter, supported by solid results in Financial Markets and Corporate Finance.

例如，客戶數量增加了 9%，管理資產增加了 16%，其中約一半來自淨流入，交易量增加了 22%。儘管批發銀行業務費用較上季下降，但在金融市場和企業融資業務穩健的支撐下，批發業務本季依然表現強勁。

Slide 17 shows the development of all other income. Income in Financial Market is mostly driven by client activity. We continue to support our clients through volatile market conditions, mostly with foreign exchange and interest rate management.

第 17 張投影片顯示了所有其他收入的發展。金融市場的收入主要由客戶活動所驅動。我們將繼續在市場波動的情況下為客戶提供支持，主要透過外匯和利率管理來實現。

Treasury was impacted by lower results from foreign currency hedging. Next, slide 18. Expenses, excluding regulatory support growth. The decrease is mainly driven by structural savings from previous restructuring and VAT refunds recognized in the fourth-quarter.

財政部受到外匯對沖收益下降的影響。接下來，請看第 18 張投影片。不包括監管支持增長的費用。下降的主要原因是先前重組帶來的結構性節省以及第四季度確認的增值稅退稅。

These effects more than compensated for wage inflation and ongoing investments in customer acquisition and product development, including expanding our offering for new customer segment.

這些影響足以彌補薪資上漲以及在客戶獲取和產品開發方面的持續投資，包括擴大我們面向新客戶群的產品。

Regulatory costs include the annual Dutch bank tax, which is always fully recognized in fourth-quarter and then allocated across segments. Incidental item related mostly to restructuring provision for planned FTE reductions in corporate staff and retail banking.

監管成本包括每年的荷蘭銀行稅，該稅款總是在第四季度全額確認，然後分配到各個業務部門。附帶事項，主要與計劃削減公司員工和零售銀行全職員工的重組準備金有關。

Once these are fully implemented, these measures are expected to generate approximately EUR100 million in annualized cost savings. When excluding these incidental items, we ended the year with expense below the outlook range we provided earlier. Now let's move on to risk costs on the next slide.

一旦這些措施全面實施，預計每年可節省約 1 億歐元成本。在剔除這些零星項目後，我們本年度的支出低於我們先前所給的預期範圍。接下來，我們將在下一張投影片上討論風險成本。

Total risk costs were EUR365 million in the quarter, equivalent to 20 basis points of average customer lending. This is in line with our through-the-cycle average.

本季總風險成本為 3.65 億歐元，相當於平均客戶貸款額的 20 個基點。這與我們整個週期的平均水平一致。

Net addition to stage 3 provision amounts to EUR389 million, mainly driven by individual stage 3 provisioning for a number of new and existing funds in the wholesale bank. This was partly offset by releases of existing provision due to repayments, secondary market sales and structural improvements.

第三階段撥備淨增加額為 3.89 億歐元，主要原因是批發銀行中一些新基金和現有基金的個別第三階段撥備。部分損失被償還款項、二級市場銷售和結構性改善所釋放的現有撥備所抵銷。

As a result, the stage 3 ratio increased slightly. For stage 1 and stage 2, we recorded a net release of $24 million, reflecting a partial release of management overlays and updated macroeconomic forecast. Overall, we remain confident in the strength and quality of our loan book.

因此，第三階段的比例略有上升。第一階段和第二階段，我們記錄了 2,400 萬美元的淨釋放，反映了部分管理層調整和更新宏觀經濟預測的釋放。總體而言，我們對貸款組合的實力和品質仍然充滿信心。

On slide 20, we show the development of our core Tier 1 ratio, which declined compared to last quarter. Core Tier 1 decreased, reflecting the 1.6 billion distribution that was partly offset by the inclusion of our quarterly net profit. Risk-weighted assets increased by USD 4.5 billion this quarter.

在第 20 張投影片中，我們展示了核心一級資本比率的發展情況，該比率與上一季相比有所下降。核心一級資金減少，反映了 16 億的分配，但部分被季度淨利潤的計入所抵消。本季風險加權資產增加了45億美元。

Credit risk-weighted assets rose by 1.5 billion, excluding FX impact, driven by volume growth. This was offset by the risk-weighted asset relief from 2 SRT transaction executed in November.

不計匯率影響，受交易量成長推動，信用風險加權資產增加15億美元。11 月執行的 2 SRT 交易帶來的風險加權資產減免抵銷了這一損失。

Operational risk-weighted asset increased by EUR2.2 billion, while market risk-weighted asset increased by EUR0.5 billion. We'll pay a final cash dividend of EUR0.736 per share on April 24, 2026, subject to our Annual General Meeting's approval. Now I hand back to Steven to wrap up today's presentation.

營運風險加權資產增加了 22 億歐元，而市場風險加權資產增加了 5 億歐元。我們將於 2026 年 4 月 24 日派發每股 0.736 歐元的最終現金股息，但須經年度股東大會批准。現在我把麥克風交還給史蒂文，讓他來總結今天的演講。

Yeah. Thank you, Tanate. And for the ones who have been here longer with us, this is Tanate's last analyst presentation. We have been knowing each other today for more than 25 years, and we've been in the Board together already for seven years and more. So thank you very much for working with us all these years.

是的。謝謝你，塔納特。對於那些和我們一起走過漫長歲月的人來說，這是 Tanate 的最後一次分析師報告。我們相識至今已有25年以上，並且已經在董事會共事七年多了。非常感謝您這些年來與我們合作。

Tanate will still be with us until the AGM of 2025, which will take place in April. But I just want to take the opportunity also here to thank Tanate, also for the friendship, also for the leadership and the sharp mind that you have here with us.

Tanate 將繼續與我們共事，直至 2025 年 4 月舉行的年度股東大會。但我還要藉此機會感謝塔納特，感謝你的友誼，感謝你在這裡展現的領導能力和敏銳的頭腦。

And I'll come sure visit you when you're back in Thailand at some point. So prepare for that. Now we move to Q&A, but let me recap the key takeaways from today's presentation. We have delivered another strong quarter end year, successfully executing our strategy, accelerating growth, increasing impact and delivering value.

等你下次回泰國的時候，我一定會去看你。所以要為此做好準備。現在進入問答環節，但讓我先總結一下今天演講的要點。我們又取得了強勁的季度末業績，成功執行了我們的策略，加速了成長，擴大了影響力，並創造了價值。

We achieved a record total income for the third consecutive year. We maintained cost discipline and operational efficiency gains, and they more than offset our investments in business growth. And we delivered another strong year of capital generation and returns, enabling continued attractive shareholder distributions.

我們連續第三年創下了總收入新高。我們維持了成本控制和營運效率的提升，這些收益遠遠超過了我們在業務成長方面的投資。我們又實現了強勁的資本創造和回報，從而能夠繼續向股東派發可觀的股息。

And with our strategy, we remain confident in our ability to stay on track to become the best European bank. And with this confidence, we have upgraded our expectations for the coming years with a very strong outlook for 2026 and a more ambitious but realistic outlook for 2027.

憑藉我們的策略，我們仍然有信心繼續朝著成為歐洲最佳銀行的目標邁進。憑藉這份信心，我們提高了對未來幾年的預期，對 2026 年的前景非常樂觀，對 2027 年的前景則更加雄心勃勃但又切實可行。

And with that, I would like to open the floor for Q&A. Operator, back to you.

接下來，我將開放問答環節。接線員，已接通。

(Operator Instructions) Benoit Petrarque of Kepler Cheuvreu.

（操作說明）開普勒舍夫勒的貝努瓦·彼特拉克。

All the best. I guess you will not miss the Dutch winter, but in Thailand. So it's an interesting time to live actually. It's the first-quarter I actually see the volume growth benefiting fully the commercial NII as the negative effect of lower interest rates is getting smaller.

一切順利。我想你不會懷念荷蘭的冬天，但在泰國你一定會懷念。所以，現在確實是個有趣的時代。這是我第一次看到銷售成長真正惠及商業淨利息收入，因為低利率的負面影響正在縮小。

I was wondering on the guidance of EUR25 billion total income, what type of assumption do you take on growth? I think you've put somewhere in the slide 5% volume growth. I was wondering if that's the right number, given you are growing actually more than 5%.

我想了解一下，關於250億歐元的總收入預期，你們對成長做了怎樣的假設？我認為你在幻燈片的某個地方提到了 5% 的銷售成長。我想知道這個數字是否正確，因為你們的實際成長率超過了 5%。

And also second question is on liability margin assumptions in your more than EUR25 billion total income. Wondering where you stand on '27 on liability margin. And then maybe on Wholesale Banking, where are you on the risk-weighted assets growth plan for the wholesale?

第二個問題是關於您超過 250 億歐元總收入中的負債比率假設。想知道您對27年負債比率的看法。那麼，關於批發銀行業務，您在批發業務的風險加權資產成長計畫中處於什麼階段？

I think you were planning some optimization there. But I do see wholesale growing quite sharply again in the fourth-quarter. So where do you see growth in wholesale going forward?

我認為你是打算在那裡進行一些優化。但我認為批發業務在第四季將再次大幅成長。那麼，您認為批發業未來的成長點在哪裡？

All right. I'll take, thanks, Benoit. And yes, Tanate, for sure, will not miss the Dutch winter. Neither would I, by the way, if I would go to Thailand. But in any case, I'm here.

好的。我要了，謝謝，貝努瓦。是的，塔納特肯定不會懷念荷蘭的冬天。順便說一句，如果我去泰國，我也不會那麼做。但無論如何，我來了。

If we look, I will talk about the question about RWA and Wholesale Banking and then Tanate will talk about the NII and the growth for '26 and '27. So if you look at Wholesale Banking there we have been seeing good lending growth in the second half of this year, and the pipelines are also filled well now.

如果讓我們來看，我將談談 RWA 和批發銀行業務的問題，然後 Tanate 將談談 2026 年和 2027 年的 NII 和成長情況。所以，如果你看批發銀行業務，我們會發現今年下半年貸款業務成長良好，而且目前的貸款儲備也相當充足。

So we want to continue to grow there as well. At the same time, to your point, we did 2 SRTs in November that had an impact of around 12 basis points on our CET1. For '26 and '27, by the way, we want to continue to do these SRTs.

所以我們也希望繼續在那裡發展壯大。同時，正如您所說，我們在 11 月進行了 2 次 SRT，這對我們的 CET1 產生了約 12 個基點的影響。順便一提，對於 2026 年和 2027 年，我們希望繼續進行這些 SRT 測試。

So we have just started with our more improvements that we have been making. So the first ones we did at the end of last year. This year, we continue to do SRTs, and we expect that to have an impact, a positive impact on CET1 of 15 to 20 basis points, so a bit higher than we realized over 2025. Tanate?

所以，我們才剛開始進行我們一直在進行的更多改進工作。所以第一批是在去年年底完成的。今年，我們將繼續進行短期利率調整，我們預計這將對 CET1 產生正面影響，達到 15 至 20 個基點，比我們預期的 2025 年略高。塔納特？

Yes. Thanks, Benoit. I think in terms of the major assumptions we use in terms of giving out outlook, we have assumed 5% balance growth, and you say that, that is potentially conservative given what you see in Q4. I think what Q4 shows us is it gives us more confidence in achieving our target.

是的。謝謝你，貝努瓦。我認為，就我們給出展望時所使用的主要假設而言，我們假設餘額增長 5%，而您也認為，考慮到您在第四季度看到的情況，這可能是一個保守的假設。我認為第四季的數據表明，它讓我們更有信心實現目標。

That would be the first answer. The second one is really what curve did we use in terms of our projection. We use the December curve to do that projection, which is quite constructive in our view. And then the third margins.

那將是第一個答案。第二個問題是，我們在預測中使用了哪一條曲線。我們使用 12 月的曲線進行預測，我們認為這是相當有建設性的。然後是第三層邊距。

I think the three impacts that you see is really the continued reduction in the short-term replication negative impact on our results, the continued positive accretion because of long-term replication and the effect of deposit rate cuts that happened in 2025 that affects '26 and will continue to be accretive going into '27 as well. Our forecast for liability margin is on the lower end of the 100 to 110 basis points.

我認為您看到的三個影響實際上是：短期複製對我們業績的負面影響持續減少；長期複製帶來的持續正增長；以及2025年存款利率下調的影響，這種影響將持續到2026年，並將繼續在2027年帶來增長。我們對負債利潤率的預測處於 100 至 110 個基點的較低水準。

This is also for '27?

這也是針對 27 年的嗎？

I think we don't give that outlook there. But I think if you see the replication on page 30 that we show, the momentum continues to accrete in '26 and '27.

我認為我們在那裡並沒有提出那種觀點。但我認為，如果你看看我們在第 30 頁展示的複製數據，就會發現這種勢頭在 2026 年和 2027 年繼續累積。

Benjamin Goy of Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的班傑明‧戈伊。

My first question is on loans versus deposit growth. So another strong quarter of loan growth in particular, and I think it's the third-quarter where your core lending growth has clearly outperformed core deposit growth.

我的第一個問題是關於貸款與存款成長的情況。因此，貸款成長又是一個強勁的季度，尤其值得一提的是，我認為第三季核心貸款成長明顯超過了核心存款成長。

Is that something that you need to work on to be more balanced? Or are you happy to increase your loans faster as there are opportunities? And then secondly, on the costs, for the underlying cost guidance, but there has been historically a bit of incidentals every year.

這是你需要努力改進以求更加平衡的方面嗎？或者，您是否樂於抓住機會，更快增加貸款額度？其次，關於成本，就基本成本指引而言，歷史上每年都會有一些零星的支出。

Should that now be smaller than in '25 going forward? Or what's best to assume for the incident that come on top of the cost guidance?

今後這個數字是否應該比 2025 年的數字還小？或者，除了成本指導之外，該事件最好做出哪些假設？

Yes. I think that on the loans versus deposit growth, I mean, if you look at 2025, the loan growth was about 8%. The deposit growth was about 6%, so EUR57 billion against about EUR38 billion. We've also seen years where that was the other way around. In the end, you want to balance the balance sheet.

是的。我認為，就貸款與存款成長而言，我的意思是，如果你看看 2025 年，貸款成長率約為 8%。存款成長約 6%，即 570 億歐元，而此前約為 380 億歐元。我們也看過情況正好相反的年份。最終，你的目標是平衡資產負債表。

So long term, we want to approximately have same growth over a longer period with loans and with deposits. But one year can be a bit higher in loans and one year can be a bit higher in deposits. I think on both sides of the balance sheet, we see continued good growth with people continuing saving.

因此，從長遠來看，我們希望在較長時期內，貸款和存款的成長大致相同。但貸款的某一年利率可能會略高一些，存款的某一年利率也可能略高一些。我認為，無論從資產負債表的哪一邊來看，我們都能看到持續良好的成長，因為人們仍在繼續儲蓄。

Also, if you look at the deposit growth projections macroeconomically in the markets in which we are active, we continue to see that. And we do see significant loan growth in the different segments in which we're operating, most notably mortgages.

此外，從宏觀經濟角度來看，在我們活躍的市場中，存款成長預測也呈現出這種趨勢。我們確實看到，在我們經營的各個領域，貸款業務都出現了顯著成長，尤其是抵押貸款業務。

But there, in the end, we want to balance the balance sheet, and we will always work on that. When we talk about the incidentals, yes, look, we continue to work on our cost discipline as we do. So on the one hand, we want to grow our customers, and we want to grow and diversify the activities in which we are active.

但歸根結底，我們想要平衡資產負債表，我們將始終為此努力。當我們談到雜項支出時，是的，我們一直在努力控製成本。一方面，我們希望擴大客戶群；另一方面，我們希望拓展並豐富我們所從事的業務活動。

And you've seen us doing that. We invest in more specific segmentation in existing retail segments. We have been rolling out business banking, for example, in Germany and Italy. We have been investing in diversifying our capital-light income in wholesale banking and transaction services and in financial markets.

你們也看到我們這麼做了。我們投資於現有零售細分市場的更精細化劃分。例如，我們一直在德國和義大利推廣企業銀行服務。我們一直在投資，以實現資本輕型收入來源的多元化，投資領域包括批發銀行和交易服務以及金融市場。

At the same time, we have seen since 2023, our FTE over balances decreased with 7%, and we believe we can reach our target that we gave in the Capital Markets Day in '24 of a decrease of 10% earlier than we anticipated what we then said in 2027. So we'll work towards this year. So we will work on both levers.

同時，我們看到自 2023 年以來，我們的 FTE 超支減少了 7%，我們相信我們可以比預期的 2027 年更早實現我們在 2024 年資本市場日提出的減少 10% 的目標。所以我們會朝著今年的目標努力。所以我們會同時作用於這兩個槓桿。

But we always do this in a buy-side thing. So what you've seen, for example, with restructuring costs in 2025, those restructuring costs should deliver us a benefit of EUR100 million in 2026.

但我們在買方交易中總是這樣做。例如，你們已經看到，2025 年的重組成本應該會在 2026 年為我們帶來 1 億歐元的收益。

And each time that we have a process or area where we can realize better servers, better process optimization, better digitization, better use of Gen AI, then we will announce it because I just want to make sure that front to back, once we announce it, we can execute and we can execute while continuing to grow, and that's how we have been operating for the past five years, and we will continue to do so.

每當我們遇到可以實現更好的伺服器、更好的流程優化、更好的數位化、更好的人工智慧應用的流程或領域時，我們都會宣布，因為我只想確保從前到後，一旦我們宣布，我們就能執行，並且能夠在執行的同時繼續發展，這就是我們過去五年的運營方式，我們將繼續這樣做。

Giulia Miotto of Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的朱莉婭·米奧托。

Thank you for your patience answering our questions and all the best for the life after ING. But now I have two questions, please. So the cost outlook beyond '26, '26 looks quite a bit better. I think it's encouraging to see operating jaws being able to grow the costs much less than the revenues.

感謝您耐心解答我們的問題，祝您在離開ING後的生活一切順利。但我現在有兩個問題，請問。因此，2026 年以後的成本前景看起來要好得多。我認為令人鼓舞的是，營運機構的成本成長速度遠低於收入成長速度。

Should we expect this trend to continue also in 2027? Consensus has got 3% year-on-year growth. I guess, I don't know what we are seeing could suggest something better than that. And then separately, Steven, I wanted to pick your brain on M&A.

我們是否可以預期這一趨勢在2027年也會持續？普遍預期年增3%。我想，我不知道我們目前所看到的是否預示著更好的結果。另外，史蒂文，我還想單獨向你請教一下併購方面的問題。

We have seen some headlines on Romania, but also Spain and Italy have been in focus in your comments, although we don't see much actions. So any comments on what you're thinking strategically on the M&A front?

我們看到了一些關於羅馬尼亞的新聞報道，但西班牙和義大利也成為了你們評論的焦點，儘管我們沒有看到太多實際行動。那麼，您在併購方面的策略考量有什麼看法呢？

All right. On M&A. So look, we show good growth. You see that both in existing activities and also in diversification on the various fronts, both in lending and in fees, by the way, on investment products and insurance.

好的。關於併購。你看，我們取得了良好的成長。您可以看到，無論是在現有業務活動中，還是在各個領域的多元化發展中，包括貸款和費用，以及投資產品和保險。

Still, and I've said this before, we've also started with filling in the blanks in countries where we don't have all activities, such as business banking and private banking and certain types of investments in asset management in certain countries.

不過，正如我之前所說，我們也開始填補一些我們尚未開展所有業務的國家的空白，例如商業銀行、私人銀行以及某些國家的資產管理投資。

Still, if we can accelerate that growth by means of acquisitions, then we will look at it. You've seen us taking a financial stake in private banking of (technical difficulty) last year. In the fourth-quarter, we announced buying the majority and thereby in the end 100% of an asset manager in Poland, integrating that asset manager into ING, we bought that from Goldman Sachs, the 55%.

不過，如果能透過收購來加速成長，我們就會考慮這麼做。去年，您已經看到我們對（技術難題）私人銀行業務進行了投資。第四季度，我們宣布收購波蘭一家資產管理公司的大部分股份，最終收購了該公司 100% 的股份，並將該公司整合到 ING 中。我們從高盛手中收購了該公司 55% 的股份。

And we continue to look. We don't comment on individual markets. Also in Romania, what I can say is that the business is successful. We have been increasing the numbers of customers that we serve. We have been growing, again, also lending deposits and fees.

我們將繼續尋找。我們不評論個別市場。在羅馬尼亞，我也可以說，這項業務很成功。我們一直在增加服務的客戶數量。我們一直在發展壯大，貸款存款和手續費也隨之增加。

And we have a very strong return on equity there. We consider ourselves one of the most successful, if not most successful bank in that country. But also there, if we can have opportunities to increase scale or add segments that we do not have, we will look at that as in any other market.

而且我們在那裡的股本回報率非常高。我們認為自己是全國最成功的銀行之一，甚至可能是最成功的銀行。但同時，如果有機會擴大規模或增加我們尚未涉足的細分市場，我們也會像在其他市場一樣考慮這些機會。

And then the caveat, it needs to fit. It needs to add to that local scale and diversification, and we want it also to be accretive for shareholders, and that's the construct in which we're working and which we are willing to consider M&A. Tanate, the jaws.

但要注意的是，它必須合適。它需要擴大本地規模並實現多元化，我們也希望它能為股東帶來增值，這就是我們正在努力的方向，也是我們願意考慮併購的方向。塔納特，下顎。

Yes. I think given the outlook, we have now turned the corner in terms of positive jaw for '26, and we're confident that we'll continue that positive jaw in 2027.

是的。我認為，就目前的情況來看，2026 年的下行風險已經好轉，我們有信心在 2027 年繼續保持這種積極的下行風險。

If you look at the three drivers of our cost growth in '27, the first one is inflation impact, which we expect that the stickiness of inflation impact should moderate in '27 compared to '26. We will continue to invest in our franchise in client acquisition.

如果觀察 2027 年我們成本成長的三個驅動因素，第一個是通貨膨脹的影響，我們預期 2027 年通貨膨脹影響的黏性將比 2026 年有所緩和。我們將持續加大對特許經營業務的投入，以拓展客戶。

In fact, if we can do more, we would do more in terms of accelerating our client acquisition. We have some big programs in terms of investment, financial market infrastructure, payment capabilities, investing in segments that we are not currently present, as Steven has mentioned.

事實上，如果我們能做得更多，我們會在加快客戶獲取方面做得更多。正如史蒂文所提到的那樣，我們在投資、金融市場基礎設施​​、支付能力以及投資我們目前尚未涉足的領域方面有一些大型項目。

And if you have seen in our '26 guidance, we upgraded our ambition in terms of cost reduction from 2% to 3%. So that trend is expected to continue into 2027 as well.

如果你看過我們 2026 年的業績指引，就會知道我們將成本削減目標從 2% 提高到了 3%。因此，預計這一趨勢將持續到 2027 年。

So I take away that probably growth will be more modest than what is to be expected in '27?

所以我認為，到 2027 年，成長可能會比預期的要溫和得多？

You can do your analysis, Giulia. We've given our guidance.

你可以自己做分析，茱莉亞。我們已經提供了指導。

Tanate Didn't even blink when he asked that question.

塔納特問這個問題時，眼睛都沒眨一下。

Tarik El Mejjad, Bank of America.

梅賈德 (Tarik El Mejjad)，美國銀行。

Tanate, thanks for the very interesting interactions we had all these many years and good luck for what's to come. Just from my side, two quick questions, please. With a follow-up one on the liability margins more in 2027. I mean just trying to back solve a bit what market expects, assuming asset margin are quite stable or growing a bit the volumes.

Tanate，感謝你這些年來與我們進行的非常有趣的交流，祝你未來一切順利。我這邊還有兩個問題想問一下。2027 年也將對負債比率進行後續研究。我的意思是，我只是想反向推算市場預期，假設資產保證金相當穩定或交易量略有成長。

We can put your assumptions with even some extra buffers and replicate portfolio, we kind of understand now how it works and so on. It's just the -- in my view, is it fair really to think that the gap between -- I mean the downside potential risk is for the market expect consensus is too optimistic, perhaps, assumptions of rate cuts or no rate raise in the core saving deposits in '27?

我們可以根據您的假設增加一些額外的緩衝，並複製投資組合，我們現在大致了解了它是如何運作的等等。在我看來，認為市場預期共識過於樂觀，認為2027年核心儲蓄存款利率下調或不上調的假設，與市場預期共識之間的差距是否公平？

Because if you use the forward curve as of December, clearly, you would also take a view on what's your ability to navigate the core savings deposits in Netherlands and other markets. And the second question is on costs is more really to want to understand how you think about the investments? Because, I mean, you have some headroom now created on the revenue side, higher growth and very comfortable to reach your targets.

因為如果你使用 12 月的遠期曲線，很顯然，你也會對你在荷蘭和其他市場駕馭核心儲蓄存款的能力做出判斷。第二個問題是關於成本的，我們更想了解您是如何看待這些投資的？因為，我的意思是，你們現在在收入方面有了一定的成長空間，可以實現更高的成長，完全有能力達到目標。

And then on the cost, the pressure from salary negotiation should come down with inflation. So that extra headroom, I want to understand how you think about the next two years in terms of investments in AI and tech. I mean, yes, you have the machine learning and with the compliance aspect, the Gen AI that you've already started to roll out with some early benefits we see. But what about the next step in AI and tech? And how much of more investments needed to deliver your ambition on that front?

至於成本方面，隨著通貨膨脹，薪資談判的壓力應該會下降。所以，為了留出額外的空間，我想了解您如何看待未來兩年在人工智慧和科技領域的投資。我的意思是，是的，你們有機器學習，還有合規方面，你們已經開始推出的 Gen AI，我們已經看到了一些早期成效。那麼人工智慧和科技的下一步發展方向是什麼呢？為了實現你在這領域的目標，還需要多少投資？

Let me take the question, Tarik, on AI and then Tanate will talk about the margins. Look, I mean, we do clearly see benefits of AI coming through. I mean we have been working with AI already for a decade and then with Gen AI, we work with that in the last couple of years. But there, you see both on, let's say, the -- on the client side and on the operational leverage side benefits coming through.

Tarik，我來回答關於人工智慧的問題，然後 Tanate 將談談利潤率。你看，我的意思是，我們確實清楚地看到了人工智慧帶來的好處。我的意思是，我們已經從事人工智慧領域的工作十年了，而對於新一代人工智慧，我們則是在最近幾年才開始研究的。但是，在那裡，比如說，在客戶方面和營運槓桿方面，你都看到了好處。

And let me give you a few examples. If you look at PI onboarding, the STP increased last year from 66% to 79%. So that means that close to 90% of our private individual clients were onboarding through STP. We do end-to-end (technical difficulty) delivery. We increased that approvals with 11% last year. So the time to (technical difficulty), therefore, improved.

我舉幾個例子。如果看一下 PI 的入職流程，去年 STP 從 66% 增加到 79%。這意味著近 90% 的私人客戶都是透過 STP 系統註冊的。我們提供端到端（技術難題）交付服務。去年，我們的審批數量增加了 11%。因此，解決（技術​​難題）所需的時間有所改善。

We do about 60 million in customer lending without manual intervention. So you see a number of customer benefits coming through. When we talk specifically about GenAI and also in chatbot, we have better scores, CSAT scores, which are sort of satisfaction scores for our customers. So we do see benefits coming through for GenAI, both on the revenue side, doing more with our customers and having more satisfied customers and on the operational leverage.

我們無需人工幹預即可完成約 6,000 萬筆客戶貸款。因此，您可以看到客戶能獲得許多好處。當我們具體談到 GenAI 和聊天機器人時，我們的得分（CSAT 分數）更高，CSAT 分數代表了我們客戶的滿意度。因此，我們看到 GenAI 正在獲得收益，無論是在收入方面（與客戶進行更多合作，提高客戶滿意度），還是在營運槓桿方面。

We do that in five areas at current. So we took the five big wins that we see starting with contact centers, in IT, coding, in lending, in personalized marketing and in KYC. So those are the big areas. We do these benefits, we see them coming through. Every quarter, you see announcement, you've seen announcements whereby we say, okay, what impact does it have on our staff, what impact does it have on our operations? And you see it also coming through in FTE over balances.

目前我們在五個領域進行這項工作。因此，我們選擇了五個我們認為可以取得重大勝利的領域，分別是聯絡中心、IT、編碼、貸款、個人化行銷和 KYC。以上就是主要領域。我們做了這些有益的事情，我們看到了它們帶來的成效。每個季度，我們都會看到公告，我們會發佈公告，說明這對我們的員工有什麼影響，對我們的營運有什麼影響？這一點也可以從全職員工人數與餘額的對比中反映出來。

And we're actually quite optimistic on the impact it will have on our operational leverage going forward for '26 and also in 2027. And we will make announcements as we move along and when we can say this is now the next step that we will take, including, of course, good reskilling of our staff and making sure we can grow and continue to grow our franchise sustainably.

我們對其在 2026 年和 2027 年的營運槓桿作用其實相當樂觀。我們將隨著工作的推進發佈公告，並在確定下一步計劃時予以公佈，這當然包括對員工進行良好的技能再培訓，並確保我們的特許經營業務能夠可持續地發展壯大。

And Tarik, to your second question, I think we also see based on the December curve that the accretion and replication in '26 going to '27 and '28 are quite strong. The real debate is what -- how do you balance that additional revenue in terms of margins and in terms of mix, right? And what we see is that we are looking at the dynamics of maintaining growth in customer growth in volumes and making sure that we take into account the level of competition we see in the market.

塔里克，關於你的第二個問題，我認為根據 12 月的曲線，我們也可以看出 2026 年到 2027 年和 2028 年的累積和複製非常強勁。真正的爭論在於——如何平衡這筆額外的收入與利潤率和產品組合之間的關係，對吧？我們看到的是，我們正在研究如何維持客戶數量成長的動態，並確保我們考慮到市場上的競爭程度。

And if you look pre negative rates environment, ING operated on a liability margin of around 90 to 100 basis points. We have updated our guidance to 100 to 110. And we think we're comfortable with that rate given the balanced dynamics of growth, competition and to be remaining competitive while at the same time, being accretive to our shareholders.

如果回顧負利率環境之前的情況，ING 的負債利差約為 90 至 100 個基點。我們已將指導值更新為 100 至 110。考慮到成長、競爭以及保持競爭力的同時為股東創造收益的平衡動態，我們認為這個成長率是可以接受的。

I mean I don't want to put words in your mouth, but basically, to deliver on the consensus or market numbers means that market has to be much more bullish on the volume growth and lending and probably be less positive on the margin side. But I'm just trying to reconcile a bit what your guidance outlook, which is very helpful versus where market is positioned.

我的意思是，我不想替你說話，但基本上，要達到市場普遍預期或市場預期，意味著市場必須對交易量增長和貸款業務更加樂觀，而對利潤率方面可能不太樂觀。但我只是想稍微理解一下您的指導意見（這非常有幫助）與市場現狀之間的關係。

Delphine Lee, JPMorgan.

Delphine Lee，摩根大通。

Also I want to take the opportunity to send my best wishes to Nate, thank you for everything. So my two questions. First of all, sorry, I just want to follow up on Tarik and other questions around NII. But -- so if we look at your guidance for 2026, which implies about EUR600 million increases for liability margins. But if you look at the repricing actions that you've done in '25, I mean, the impact on '26 is already EUR700 million.

另外，我想藉此機會向內特表達我最美好的祝愿，感謝他所做的一切。所以我有兩個問題。首先，抱歉，我只是想跟進一下關於 Tarik 和其他與 NII 相關的問題。但是——如果我們看一下您對 2026 年的指導意見，這意味著負債利潤率將增加約 6 億歐元。但如果你看看你在 2025 年採取的重新定價措施，我的意思是，對 2026 年的影響已經達到 7 億歐元。

And then on top of that, you have some small benefits from -- well, your replicating income as well on '26 more, but like still. So I'm just kind of wondering like what is your current assumption and in terms of the deposit cost and deposit pass-through from 42% in Q4? And if you could just sort of elaborate a little bit on what are you seeing on competition on deposits at the moment? What do you expect for '26 and onwards?

除此之外，你還能獲得一些小好處——嗯，你的收入也會在 2026 年繼續成長，但就像仍然如此。所以我想知道，您目前的假設是什麼？關於第四季 42% 的存款成本和存款轉嫁，您是如何看待這個問題的？您能否詳細談談您目前在存款市場觀察到的競爭情況？你對2026年及以後有什麼預期？

My second question is on cost. So you've done a good job of trying to kind of contain a little bit of inflation with the savings. I'm just trying -- just trying to understand a little bit if 2%, 3% is really kind of like the run rate that we should expect like even beyond '27. Is that something that you're trying to achieve in the long run? Yes, just trying to understand a little bit the moving parts of that cost number, you've provided this for '26.

我的第二個問題是關於成本的。所以，你們在利用儲蓄來抑制通貨膨脹方面做得很好。我只是想了解一下，2%、3% 是否真的是我們應該預期的運行率，甚至在 2027 年之後也是如此。這是你想要在長遠內實現的目標嗎？是的，我只是想稍微了解一下這個成本數字的組成要素，您已經提供了 2026 年的數據。

But even beyond that, like what are the savings? You've mentioned a couple of benefits from FTE reductions, but just kind of trying to quantify a little bit what else can we expect in the long run?

但除此之外，究竟能省多少呢？您提到了減少全職員工人數的一些好處，但我想稍微量化一下，從長遠來看，我們還能期待什麼？

All right. Thank you very much. I think that on the costs, you see the effects of our digitalization and scalability now really seeing take shape. And we saw that now also in the fourth-quarter, but also I'm pointing again at FTE over balances. You also now see that when we look at 2026 about the operational leverage and efficiencies that we have compared to the increase in investments.

好的。非常感謝。我認為，從成本方面來看，我們的數位化和可擴展性帶來的影響現在正在真正顯現出來。我們在第四季也看到了這一點，但我再次強調的是 FTE 與餘額之間的關係。現在您也可以看到，當我們展望 2026 年時，與投資成長相比，我們所擁有的營運槓桿和效率也隨之提高。

So the operational efficiencies are higher, and that's where we want to be. We want to make sure that when we make additional investments, we can have operational leverage that is higher than that. So that's maybe a little bit of direction to give you or guidance to give you in terms of where we want to end up. And indeed, therefore, you will see in '26 and '27 improved cost to income to what we have been showing and positive jaws territory that we have now been gotten into and I want to stay in that territory.

因此，營運效率更高了，而這正是我們想要達到的目標。我們希望確保在進行額外投資時，我們能夠獲得比這更高的營運槓桿。所以，這或許能給你一些方向或指導，讓你了解我們最終想要達到的目標。因此，您將在 2026 年和 2027 年看到，我們的成本收入比有所改善，我們已經進入了積極的成長領域，我希望繼續保持這種成長勢頭。

And at the same time, we continue to want to grow our investments where we can grow our clients for long-term clients and shareholder benefit. But that's a bit of guidance towards the cost. Then Tanate, on the deposit cost of margins?

同時，我們將繼續擴大投資，在能夠為客戶帶來長期利益和股東收益的領域實現成長。但這對於成本來說是一個大致的參考。那麼，Tanate，關於保證金的存款成本呢？

I think we gave a bit of detail on page 20 of our presentation showing the movements in terms of commercial NII. I think the lending NII is driven by basically stable margin and approximately 5% loan growth. And similarly, for liability NII, we also assume 5% liability growth. Of that EUR600 million we show, part of it is due to volume, about half. The other half is through the improvement in margins.

我認為我們在簡報的第 20 頁詳細介紹了商業淨利息收入的變動情況。我認為貸款淨利息收入主要由穩定的利潤率和約 5% 的貸款成長所驅動。同樣地，對於負債淨利息收入，我們也假設負債成長率為 5%。在我們展示的 6 億歐元中，約有一半是因為交易量。另一半則來自利潤率的提高。

As you say, the replication is getting better, but there's some short-term impact that still need to feed through our numbers and the EUR700 million is factored into that guidance.

正如你所說，複製情況正在好轉，但仍有一些短期影響需要反映在我們的數據中，而這 7 億歐元的影響已經計入預期。

Namita Samtani, Barclays.

Namita Samtani，巴克萊銀行。

The first question I have is on German retail. There's quite a lot of cost growth in 2025 there. I think it's around 11% year-on-year, and it's a lot higher than other regions. So I wondered what are you exactly spending on in Germany? And is this defensive spend given the new players entering the market? And then I think about your liability margin, which is, of course, at group level, but are you telling us that we're at peak earnings for Germany in retail given high expense spend and (technical difficulty) spend to gather deposits?

我的第一個問題是關於德國零售業的。2025年那裡的成本成長幅度相當大。我認為年增幅在 11% 左右，遠高於其他地區。所以我想知道你在德國的具體開銷都花在了哪些方面？考慮到有新玩家進入市場，這樣的支出算是防守性投入嗎？然後我想到了你們的負債率，當然，這是集團層面的，但你們的意思是，考慮到高額支出和（技術上困難的）存款吸收支出，德國零售業的盈利已經達到頂峰了嗎？

And my second question, based on your updated '27 targets today, the cost to income implied in '27 is maybe 51%, 52%. It's hardly a standout amongst European banks, even ABN is now going to below 55%. I just wondered, given the digital model ING has or aspires to have and the use of AI, what's holding the group back from delivering a better cost to income target?

我的第二個問題是，根據您今天更新的 2027 年目標，2027 年隱含的成本收入比可能是 51%、52%。它在歐洲銀行中並不算突出，就連ABN的持股比例現在也低於55%。我只是想知道，鑑於 ING 已經擁有或渴望擁有的數位化模式以及人工智慧的應用，是什麼阻礙了該集團實現更好的成本收入目標？

Yes. Thank you very much. On the cost to income side, our main opportunity is to grow our revenues. Our revenues over our client balances, our diversification in Wholesale Banking, our revenues over RWA and as a result, but that's then a consequence of it also that will have a positive impact on our cost to income. But what we need to do, that's why our strategy is called grow the difference is grow our revenues.

是的。非常感謝。從成本收入比來看，我們主要的機會是增加收入。我們的收入超過客戶餘額，我們在批發銀行業務方面的多元化，我們的收入超過風險加權資產，因此，這也將對我們的成本收入比產生正面影響。但我們需要做的，也是我們策略名稱「擴大差異化」的原因，就是增加我們的收入。

Because that's where we can make the biggest difference in further improving our returns and then indirectly also our cost to income. And so the digital model has brought us a lot in terms of presence in markets, but that's why we're talking about doing new activities in these markets or doing more with customers in these markets because that is the next step in our evolution, what we're currently doing. Tanate?

因為在那裡我們可以做出最大的改變，進一步提高我們的收益，然後間接地提高我們的成本收入比。因此，數位化模式為我們帶來了許多市場影響力，但正因如此，我們才要探討在這些市場開展新活動，或與這些市場的客戶進行更多互動，因為這是我們發展的下一步，也是我們目前正在做的事情。塔納特？

Yes. The German cost income ratio is a robust one despite the increase in investments that we make in Germany. One thing that you have to remember is that the client growth that we have, 1 million customer per year, a very significant portion comes from Germany, which is our main market. So that's why the investments in client acquisition, in creating new products, creating new segments is very strong in Germany. very, very much like the rest of ING seeing a turnaround in terms of the momentum in terms of revenue and cost in Germany.

是的。儘管我們在德國的投資增加，但德國的成本收入比依然穩健。你必須記住的一點是，我們每年新增 100 萬客戶，其中很大一部分來自德國，德國是我們的主要市場。因此，德國在客戶獲取、新產品開發和新業務拓展方面的投資力度非常大。這與ING其他地區的業績非常相似，德國的收入和成本控制都出現了改善。

And we do expect that the positive jaw will return to Germany in 2026, while continuing to invest in our franchise, both in terms of the fundamental platforms as well as client acquisition.

我們預計，到 2026 年，德國的市場前景將一片光明，同時我們將繼續投資於我們的特許經營業務，包括基礎平台和客戶獲取方面。

Cyril Toutounji, BNP Paribas.

Cyril Toutounji，法國巴黎銀行。

So I've got two. One on lending margin. So we had an improvement this quarter, which is welcome and I think pretty good news. And you're saying it's due to mortgages. I'm just curious in which market has happened? And if you can give us more indication whether this can continue maybe a bit? And the second one would be on deposit campaigns.

所以我有兩個。一項關於貸款保證金。所以本季我們有所改善，這令人欣慰，我認為這是個好消息。你說這是因為房貸。我只是好奇這件事發生在哪個市場？如果您能進一步說明這種情況是否可以持續一段時間，那就太好了？第二點是關於存款活動。

Can you update us on the ongoing campaigns right now? And I don't know if you can give this indication as well, but should we expect more or less campaigns versus the 2025 run rate?

您能向我們介紹一下目前正在進行的活動嗎？我不知道您是否也能給出這樣的建議，但與 2025 年的競選活動頻率相比，我們應該預期競選活動會增加還是減少？

Yes. Thank you, Cyril. I'll take the question on deposit campaigns and Tanate talks about the lending margin. So yes, about the deposit campaigns, look, we have these campaigns regularly. We had them also in the fourth-quarter with Black Friday in some markets or in Germany, as they call it Black Friday. So we will continue these campaigns, and we typically see that there's a good response in getting either new money from existing clients or getting new clients in.

是的。謝謝你，西里爾。我將回答有關存款活動的問題，而 Tanate 將談論貸款利差。是的，關於存款活動，我們定期舉辦這些活動。第四季我們也遇到了類似的情況，有些市場或德國稱之為「黑色星期五」。因此我們將繼續進行這些活動，我們通常發現，無論是從現有客戶那裡獲得新資金，還是獲得新客戶，都能取得良好的迴響。

And then typically, we see that we get money to stick to around 2/3 of the money that after campaigns will stick with ING and therefore, we can gain new primary customers and increase our deposit levels. So for us, that works well. And what we work on every time is we make them more bespoke to certain customer segments and we make them more data-driven, so we can target them more and more.

通常情況下，我們發現，在行銷活動結束後，大約有 2/3 的資金會留在 ING，因此，我們可以獲得新的主要客戶，並提高我們的存款水準。所以對我們來說，這很有效。我們每次都在努力使它們更符合特定客戶群的需求，並使其更加數據驅動，以便我們能夠更精準地定位他們。

So we are very happy with the approach we've taken. We are confident about what we are doing, and we will keep on having these campaigns and we make them more bespoke about a year. Tanate, about the margins?

因此，我們對所採取的方法非常滿意。我們對自己所做的事情充滿信心，我們將繼續進行這些活動，並大約每一年使其更加個性化。塔納特，關於邊緣部分？

Yes, So I think we are also pleased to see that we have stabilized our lending margin and that it's improved by one-basis point. And to your specific questions on mortgage margin, it's been stable or increasing across the board. I think some of the markets where the new production margins are improving is in Belgium, increasing in Germany, increasing in Italy and Spain. So it's quite widespread in terms of margin improvement, but we do see a bit of pressure in terms of new production margin in the Netherlands.

是的，所以我覺得我們也很高興地看到，我們的貸款利差已經穩定下來，並且提高了1個基點。至於你提出的關於抵押貸款利差的具體問題，總體而言，利差一直保持穩定或有所增長。我認為，比利時、德國、義大利和西班牙等一些市場的新生產利潤率正在提高，這些市場的利潤率也在提高。因此，就利潤率提升而言，這種情況相當普遍，但我們確實看到荷蘭在新生產利潤率方面面臨一些壓力。

Johan Ekblom, UBS.

Johan Ekblom，瑞銀集團。

Thank you for everything, Tanate, and best of luck. Just most questions have been answered. But at the Capital Markets Day, we spoke a lot about the business banking opportunities, and I guess, in particular, in Germany. How should we, from the outside, try and measure your success there? Because it's very difficult to track where you are in terms of the rollout.

塔納特，謝謝你所做的一切，祝你好運。大部分問題都已解答。但在資本市場日上，我們談了很多關於商業銀行業務機會，我想，尤其是在德國。我們這些局外人該如何衡量你們在那裡的成功呢？因為很難追蹤推廣進度。

And I guess also when you are expecting to see volumes start to come through in a more meaningful way. So any update on kind of how the business banking rollout in Germany is going would be much appreciated.

我想，當你期待看到銷量以更有意義的方式成長時，情況也是如此。因此，如果您能提供一些關於德國企業銀行服務推廣進展的最新消息，我們將不勝感激。

Yes. Thank you very much, Johan. Indeed, business banking is one of the levers that we pull to diversify. To give you a few data points, we -- the third largest growth we had in business banking customers in terms of number of customers this year was Germany. So that already shows you that we're starting to grow quite well in Germany. It starts from a very small base.

是的。非常感謝你，約翰。事實上，企業銀行業務是我們多元化經營的手段之一。舉幾個例子來說，今年我們企業銀行客戶成長第三大的國家是德國。這已經顯示我們在德國的發展勢頭相當不錯。它起步於一個非常小的基礎。

Obviously, because we started from virtually zero. So that's one. Two, we also get very good deposits in from our business banking customers in Germany, so also there. So increasingly, that will become more sizable. But compared to our business banking franchises in the Netherlands and Belgium, for example, of course, it is very minimal because we have EUR114 billion business banking lending book.

顯然，因為我們幾乎是從零開始的。這是其中之一。第二，我們在德國的商業銀行客戶也為我們帶來了非常可觀的存款，所以那邊的情況也不錯。因此，這種情況會越來越嚴重。但與我們在荷蘭和比利時的商業銀行業務相比，這當然微不足道，因為我們的商業銀行貸款總額高達 1,140 億歐元。

And in Germany, we're just starting. So that will take time. But it is almost like you saw with the insurance fees there you see in the fee income line, as an example, it was not even a separate fee line. And there you see step by step-by-step, it's almost like a snowball. We do more and more and more. And at some point, it will become a sizable business, and that's also what we see happening in business banking in Germany.

在德國，我們才剛起步。所以需要時間。但就像你在費用收入項中看到的保險費一樣，例如，它甚至沒有單獨列為一項費用。你看，一步一步地，就像滾雪球一樣。我們做的越來越多。在某個時候，它會發展成為一項規模可觀的業務，而這正是我們在德國商業銀行業所看到的情況。

Shrey Srivastava, Citi.

Shrey Srivastava，花旗銀行。

Thank you, Tanate, for answering all the questions over the previous quarters. I just want to look more top down because obviously, following on from previous questions, we've talked about the upside on the replicating income versus your guided liability margin still at 100 to 110 basis points. A, is your sort of 5% volume growth guidance predicated on further deposit campaigns to get you within this 100 to 110 basis points? Or is any sort of upside to volume growth from that incremental to the 5%?

感謝 Tanate 在前幾個季度回答了所有問題。我只是想從上往下看，因為很明顯，接續之前的問題，我們已經討論過複製收入的上漲空間，而您指導的負債利潤率仍然在 100 到 110 個基點之間。A，您所說的 5% 的交易量增長預期是否基於進一步的存款活動，以使交易量增長達到 100 到 110 個基點？或者說，從這5%的增量來看，銷售成長還有任何上升空間嗎？

And secondly, what are sort of the hurdle rates you have in mind when thinking about going forward with a new deposit campaign? Because obviously, as you've heard sort of many of us to get from the assumptions we have when plugging your replicating income into the model to the liability margin of 110 basis points would require some sort of pretty significant deposit campaigns. So what are some of the things you think about when deciding to give up that short-term upside for sort of longer-term growth?

其次，在考慮進行新的存款活動時，您心中設定的最低存款門檻是多少？因為很明顯，正如你們所聽到的，我們許多人從我們所做的假設中得出的結論是，將複製收入代入模型，110 個基點的負債率需要進行一些相當大的存款活動。那麼，當你決定放棄短期收益而追求長期成長時，你會考慮哪些因素呢？

All right. Tanate, can you give the elements of our replication income or lease liability margin again?

好的。Tanate，你能再提供一下我們複製收入或租賃負債利潤率的構成要素嗎？

Yes. I think the 5% deposit growth, I think it's a good base number, right? And I think you look in the context of 2025, where the growth is around 5%. So that trend line, we expect to continue despite competition, despite quantitative tightening. So I think it's a good number to assume 5% growth. Does campaign play a big role in that? It continues to be the case, right, that we have campaigns in many markets we operate in.

是的。我認為5%的存款成長率是一個不錯的基準數字，對吧？我認為，要從 2025 年的角度來看，成長率約為 5%。因此，儘管面臨競爭和量化緊縮，我們預計這一趨勢線仍將持續。所以我認為假設成長率為 5% 是比較合理的。競選活動在其中扮演重要角色嗎？沒錯，我們仍然在我們經營的許多市場中開展行銷活動。

We continue to use that as a tool, but we also get additional flows coming into the bank all the time. And what I look at really is the growth in our primary customer, the intensity of which we have a relationship with our customer is there. And I think looking at the replication, it's still the three moving parts, right? It's really the impact of the short-term replication still having a tail impact is continued accretion of long-term replication coming through and the actions that we would take in terms of rate increases or decreases over time.

我們繼續將其作為一種工具，但我們也一直在獲得額外的資金流入銀行。我真正關注的是我們主要客戶的成長情況，以及我們與客戶之間關係的緊密程度。我認為從複製的角度來看，它仍然是三個運動部分，對吧？短期複製的影響仍然會產生尾部影響，這是因為長期複製會不斷累積，而隨著時間的推移，我們會採取相應的措施來提高或降低複製率。

And I think we like to reiterate that we don't give guidance for '27 in terms of liability margin, but we expect it to operate in '26 at the lower end of the 100 to 110, and we're comfortable that we can achieve our target with that guidance.

我們想再次強調，我們不對 2027 年的負債率給出指引，但我們預計 2026 年的負債率將在 100 至 110 的低端區間運行，我們有信心憑藉這一指引實現我們的目標。

Seamus Murphy, Carraighill.

謝默斯墨菲，卡拉吉爾。

Sorry, I'm coming back again to a lot of the questions that have been asked in one sense just in terms of the guidance. So I suppose you've guided 16 to -- sorry, EUR16.3 billion to EUR16.5 billion for commercial NII in 2026. But in Q4, it was EUR3.928 billion. So that suggests an exit rate of just over EUR4 billion into Q1 2026. That's already in the bag.

抱歉，我又要回到之前提出的許多問題上了，從某種意義上說，這只是在提供指導方面。所以，我猜你們已經將 2026 年商業淨利息收入預期設定為 163 億歐元至 165 億歐元。但第四季度，這一數字為 39.28 億歐元。因此，這意味著到 2026 年第一季度，退出率將略高於 40 億歐元。這件事已經板上釘釘了。

And if I annualize that, I'm kind of getting EUR16.2 billion at the start of the year, just before anything else happens and the upper end of your guidance, therefore, only needs 2% growth to achieve the 16.5%. And obviously, we have -- so I suppose question one, is there anything wrong with the math as you start the year that you have kind of EUR16.2 billion of NII heading into the -- sorry, EUR16.2 billion into this year at the start?

如果我把這個數字按年計算，那麼在年初，也就是在所有其他事情發生之前，我將得到大約 162 億歐元，因此，您給出的上限目標只需要 2% 的增長就能達到 16.5%。顯然，我們有——所以我想第一個問題是，年初你們的淨利息收入（NII）為 162 億歐元，這個數字在數學上有什麼問題嗎？ ——抱歉，是年初的 162 億歐元。

And the second question then is, obviously, we have growth, so there's only limited growth needed. But the second question then is, you mentioned earlier on the call that the long end of the replication portfolio is a positive further into '26 and '27. Two things have happened. Your current account balances have grown EUR5 billion, I think, to EUR175 billion now.

那麼第二個問題顯然是，我們已經實現了成長，所以只需要有限的成長。但第二個問題是，您之前在電話會議中提到，複製投資組合的長期部分在 2026 年和 2027 年將呈現積極態勢。發生了兩件事。我想，您的活期帳戶餘額已經增加了 50 億歐元，現在達到了 1750 億歐元。

And secondly is that, obviously, the curve has deepened. So it would be super useful if you could tell us how much the long end of the replication portfolio will contribute in '26 and '27. And the last question, I asked this also on the Q3 call because it's becoming more and more important for banks, I think, is that do you expect FTEs to fall as we look into '27 and '28 at the group level?

其次，很明顯，曲線已經加深。所以，如果您能告訴我們複製投資組合的長期部分在 2026 年和 2027 年將貢獻多少，那就太好了。最後一個問題，我在第三季電話會議上也問過，因為我認為這對銀行來說越來越重要，那就是，當我們展望 2027 年和 2028 年集團層面時，您是否預計 FTE 會下降？

Thanks, Seamus, for your questions. Well, we do expect FTE over balances to fall. So this is about, of course, a continuous focus on growth and then on a marginal basis, doing that with less marginal cost. And that's why we use the metric FTE over balances, whereby we continuously accept -- sorry, see an improvement or expect an improvement based on our digitalization and AI and GenAI and better process management as we have been doing over the past years.

謝謝西莫斯的提問。我們預計 FTE 超支將會下降。所以，這當然是關於持續關注成長，然後以邊際成本較低的方式實現成長。因此，我們使用 FTE 指標而不是餘額，因為我們不斷接受——抱歉，看到或期望基於我們的數位化、人工智慧、GenAI 和更好的流程管理而有所改進，就像我們在過去幾年中所做的那樣。

And that trend we see continuing. At the same time, we want to grow because we need to diversify and grow our revenues over our balances and our RWA. But from an FTE over balancing perspective, we should see further improvements. Tanate, how does it work with that?

而且我們看到這種趨勢還會持續下去。同時，我們希望發展壯大，因為我們需要多元化，並提高我們資產負債表和風險加權資產的收入。但從 FTE 平衡的角度來看，我們應該會看到進一步的改進。Tanate，它是怎麼運作的？

Yes, Seamus, we will see each other in London, so we can go into a bit more detail. But I think it's a dangerous game to take Q4 and then extrapolating it. But I think if I look at full year to full year, the impact is over EUR1 billion, right? That's a 7% growth in net interest income, which I think is a strong number and strong guidance.

是的，西莫斯，我們會在倫敦見面，到時候我們可以更詳細地談談。但我認為，以第四季的數據為依據進行推論是很危險的。但我認為，如果從全年來看，影響超過 10 億歐元，對吧？淨利息收入成長了7%，我認為這是一個非常強勁的數字，也是一個強勁的業績指引。

And I also -- we don't give replicated income in such details of how much the long end would contribute, except that we have disclosed in our presentation that 55% of our replication is long dated. And I also noted the fact that the drive of our primary customer is driving increasing current account and that increasing current account means better margin. So we do recognize that.

而且，我們也沒有詳細說明長期投資能貢獻多少收益，只是在簡報中揭露，我們複製的收益中有 55% 是長期投資。我還注意到，我們主要客戶的驅動力是增加活期帳戶，而增加活期帳戶意味著更高的利潤率。所以我們確實認識到了這一點。

(Operator Instructions) Anke Reingen, RBC.

（操作員說明）Anke Reingen，RBC。

But firstly, thank you very much, Tanate, and all the best. And then to questions. So firstly, can you just talk a bit about your expectation on lending volume growth in 2026? I guess the 5% applies here as well, but I suppose, Q3, Q4, you've seen very strong growth. So where do you see sort of like the mix falling into 2026? I mean I hear your margin comment, but maybe just more a bit in terms of the mix.

首先，非常感謝你，塔納特，祝你一切順利。然後是提問環節。首先，您能否談談您對 2026 年貸款量成長的預期？我想 5% 的成長率也適用於這裡，但我想，第三季和第四季，你們應該看到了非常強勁的成長。那你認為到 2026 年，這種混合趨勢會如何發展？我明白你對利潤率的看法，但或許可以在配比方面再多做一些調整。

And then you commented earlier on about the SRTs of 15 basis points benefit. Can you just clarify, is that per year? Or is that over the two years, '26 and '27 --

然後您之前評論過 SRT 帶來 15 個基點的好處。請問這是每年的費用嗎？還是指2026年和2027年這兩年？

Thank you very much, Anke, for your questions. If you look at the SRTs, the impact in '25 was 12 basis points and that impact remains there. So once we have taken, let's say, the first loss piece of our balance sheet, it will remain (technical difficulty) of our balance sheet. But in '26, we're going to do an additional number of SRTs that should benefit an additional 15 to 20 basis points on our CET1.

安克，非常感謝你的提問。如果你看一下 SRT，2025 年的影響是 12 個基點，而且這種影響仍然存在。所以，一旦我們扣除了資產負債表上的第一個虧損項，它就會保留在我們的資產負債表上（技術難度）。但在 2026 年，我們將進行更多 SRT，這將使我們的 CET1 利率再提高 15 到 20 個基點。

And we, of course, will then also continue for '27 and thereafter. But on those years, we haven't yet given guidance. When we talk about lending growth, we see good growth across the board, like you've seen in the third and the fourth-quarter that both in and mortgages and in business banking and wholesale banking, we continue to see good growth. The pipelines are good.

當然，我們也會繼續到 2027 年及以後。但對於那些年份，我們尚未給予指導意見。當我們談到貸款成長時，我們看到各個領域都呈現良好的成長態勢，就像你們在第三季和第四季看到的那樣，無論是抵押貸款、商業銀行業務還是批發銀行業務，我們都繼續看到良好的成長。管道狀況良好。

Clearly, especially with the underlying macro drivers, there is shortage of housing in many of the markets in which we operate, in this case in the Netherlands, that is the case in Belgium, that is in Germany. That is the case in Spain. We are -- we have a total mortgage book of EUR370 billion. So we are a top three mortgage provider in the region in Europe.

顯然，尤其是在宏觀經濟因素的影響下，我們營運的許多市場都存在住房短缺問題，例如荷蘭、比利時和德國。西班牙的情況就是如此。我們－我們的抵押貸款總額為 3700 億歐元。所以，我們是歐洲該地區排名前三的抵押貸款提供者。

And in many of the markets in which we are active, we see there are good macroeconomic fundamentals to continue that growth, low unemployment levels, good salary increase over the past couple of years, shortage of housing, lower number of people in individual households, so an increase in the number of households and those fundamentals continue to be there. And that's why that is going to be a significant driver of the loan growth in 2026 and '27.

在我們活躍的許多市場中，我們看到宏觀經濟基本面良好，足以維持成長，例如低失業率、過去幾年薪資成長良好、住房短缺、單一家庭人口減少，從而導致家庭數量增加，而這些基本面因素依然存在。因此，這將成為 2026 年和 2027 年貸款成長的重要驅動因素。

Matthew Clark, Mediobanca.

馬修克拉克，Mediobanca。

So firstly, coming back to this EUR25 billion target for 2027 revenues or greater than EUR25 billion. I mean, are you trying to talk down consensus there, which is EUR25.8 billion, I think? Or do you think that's still consistent with the greater than component of that target? So I just want to understand your thinking for framing that target that way against the context of a higher consensus?

首先，讓我們回到 2027 年營收達到 250 億歐元或以上這個目標。我的意思是，你是想降低大家的普遍預期嗎？我記得大家的普遍預期是 258 億歐元。或者你認為這仍然與該目標的大於號分量一致嗎？所以我想了解一下，在更廣泛的共識背景下，為什麼你會這樣設定目標？

And then secondly, on wholesale lending, why is now the right time for you to be putting your foot down on wholesale lending? What's changed in terms of risk reward, et cetera? And I guess asking that in the context of an uptick in credit losses on wholesale this quarter.

其次，關於批發貸款，為什麼現在是您對批發貸款採取強硬立場的合適時機？風險報酬等方面發生了哪些變化？我想，提出這個問題是因為本季批發信貸損失增加。

Yes. Thank you very much. Well, let me put it this way for 2027. So we said that the revenues are larger than EUR25 billion. So we are confident about our growth, and we're also confident about '27. So don't forget the larger then sign in EUR25 billion for '27, but yes, that's where we currently are. And we're very comfortable with that level.

是的。非常感謝。好吧，讓我這樣描述2027年的情況。所以我們說，收入超過 250 億歐元。所以我們對自身的成長充滿信心，對 2027 年也充滿信心。所以別忘了2027年還要簽署更大的協議，金額高達250億歐元，但沒錯，這就是我們目前的處境。我們對這個水平非常滿意。

When you talk about wholesale bank lending, well, look, we had slow quarters in the first half of 2025, and then it picked up very well in the second half of the year. In the end, what we want to realize in Wholesale Banking is higher revenues over RWA and a higher return over RWA. And in that regard, we have been investing and we are continuing to invest in transaction services and financial markets.

談到批發銀行貸款，嗯，你看，2025 年上半年業務成長緩慢，但下半年成長動能良好。最終，我們希望在批發銀行業務中實現的是高於 RWA 的收入和高於 RWA 的回報。在這方面，我們一直在投資，並將繼續投資於交易服務和金融市場。

That will help us to drive the diversification in wholesale banking and do more with our customers next to lending, but lending, of course, is also good. And secondly, we're attacking, let's say, our capital there. Our capital was about 50-50 in '24. Now we said for '27, we had a target of 55% in retail and then 45% in Wholesale Banking. It's already at 54% for retail and 46% for wholesale banking.

這將有助於我們推動批發銀行業務的多元化，並在貸款之外為我們的客戶做更多的事情，但貸款當然也是好事。其次，我們攻擊的，比如說，是我們在那裡的首都。1924年，我們的資本大約是50-50。我們當時說，2027 年，我們的目標是零售業務達到 55%，批發銀行業務達到 45%。零售銀行業務的比例已達 54%，批發銀行業務的比例已達 46%。

So we're on a good path quicker than we initially anticipated. And that's why we continue also to work on the SRTs to make sure that also on the capital side in wholesale banking, we can do more with less capital to help with return going up. So it's not a particular focus on lending alone. In the end, we're focused on return.

所以，我們走上了一條正確的道路，而且比我們最初預期的要快得多。正因如此，我們才繼續致力於 SRT 的實施，以確保在批發銀行業務的資本方面，我們也能用更少的資本做更多的事情，從而幫助提高回報。所以，它並非僅僅專注於貸款業務。歸根究底，我們關注的是回報。

Farquhar Murray, Autonomous.

法誇爾·默里，自治。

Obviously, congratulations, Tanate and best wishes for the future. Coming back to the day job though for now, two-questions, if I may. Firstly, please, can you reconcile the indication of EUR0.4 billion of hedging tailwinds into '26 of 4Q with kind of flat replicating income on a year-on-year basis on slide 29. Is that simply a matter of how things came through in the quarters?

當然，恭喜你，塔納特，並祝你未來一切順利。回到正題，現在我想問兩個問題。首先，請問您能否解釋一下，第 29 頁幻燈片中提到的 4 億歐元對沖利好因素與 2026 年第四季營收同比基本持平的情況之間有何關聯？這僅僅是各部門之間溝通方式的問題嗎？

And perhaps can you just flesh that out through '25 and into '26? And also, is there a quarterly pattern to that hedging impact and also maybe the short-term effects you mentioned earlier? And then secondly, if we look last year, lending outpaced deposits, if we look at the 8% versus the 5% I know you said the kind of planning assumption as a kind of balanced 5%, but what's your general sense about where customer demand is at present?

或許您可以把這個計畫詳細說明到 2025 年和 2026 年？另外，這種對沖影響是否有季度規律，以及您先前提到的短期影響是否有規律？其次，如果我們回顧去年，貸款增速超過了存款增速，8% 的增速與 5% 的增速相比，我知道您曾說過規劃假設是平衡的 5%，但您對目前客戶需求的總體感覺如何？

I think that -- so on the customer demand at present, I mean, we -- actually, we do see continued good mortgage growth, again, because we see the macroeconomic elements that we saw in there, we see them continuing. And therefore, if you look at the number of houses being sold last year in a number of our main markets in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, they all have increased.

我認為——就目前客戶需求而言，我的意思是，我們——實際上，我們確實看到了抵押貸款持續良好的增長，因為我們看到了之前看到的宏觀經濟因素，我們看到這些因素會繼續存在。因此，如果你看去年我們在荷蘭、比利時和德國等幾個主要市場的房屋銷售數量，你會發現它們都增加了。

And also, we see increases in a number of these housing markets to continue in 2026 and '27. So again, we're very positive towards that end. I think in business banking, we have also been improving our processes, and therefore, we've made it easier for our customers to borrow with us. So I think there, it's also an improvement of capabilities that we have had and by the way, rolling out business banking step by step by step in Germany, Italy and potentially also in other markets that we're looking at.

此外，我們預計這些房屋市場中的許多市場將在 2026 年和 2027 年繼續成長。所以，我們對此非常樂觀。我認為在商業銀行業務方面，我們也一直在改善我們的流程，因此，我們讓客戶更容易向我們借款。所以我認為這也是對我們現有能力的提升，順便說一句，我們正在德國、義大利以及我們正在關注的其他市場逐步推出商業銀行服務。

We've spoken about Spain before. And then in wholesale banking, it's always more lumpy, funny enough, whereby you do see geopolitical uncertainty on the one hand and the PMI index being relatively low, we've seen sort of a catch-up demand of wholesale banking lending in the third and fourth-quarter. The pipeline is still good.

我們之前談過西班牙。有趣的是，批發銀行業務總是波動較大，一方面是地緣政治的不確定性，另一方面是採購經理人指數（PMI）相對較低，我們在第三季度和第四季度看到了批發銀行貸款需求的某種追趕性增長。管道狀況良好。

Yes, probably that wholesale banking in that sense is always a bit more choppy in terms of growth than the other elements. But the main consistent element in the lending growth sits in the mortgage side. Then on the hedging tailwinds, there, I want to give the floor to Tanate.

是的，從這個意義上講，批發銀行業務的成長波動性可能總是比其他業務板塊要大一些。但貸款成長的主要穩定因素在於抵押貸款方面。然後，關於對沖順風，我想把發言權交給塔納特。

Thank you very much, Farquhar. I think what we see is that if you look at our quarterly commercial NII, it reached a trough in Q2, improved from EUR3.7 billion to EUR3.8 billion and from EUR3.8 billion to EUR3.9 billion during the course. So you already see signs of that replication impact. I think what the EUR400 million refers to is the fact that the short end pressure that we see is decreasing.

非常感謝你，法誇爾。我認為我們可以看到，如果你看一下我們的季度商業淨利息收入，它在第二季度跌至谷底，之後從 37 億歐元增至 38 億歐元，並在隨後的一段時間內從 38 億歐元增至 39 億歐元。所以你已經看到了複製帶來的影響。我認為4億歐元指的是我們看到的短期壓力正在減輕。

We see the fact that in Q4, we also have the benefit of the rate cuts already materializing into the numbers and that 55% of the long end is already positive. So it's a combination of all these three factors that drives the EUR400 million tailwind.

我們看到，在第四季度，我們也受益於降息政策已經體現在數據中，長期業績中有 55% 已經實現正收益。因此，正是這三個因素的共同作用，推動了 4 億歐元的成長。

Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs International.

克里斯·哈勒姆，高盛國際。

I just have one question left. And obviously, good luck, Tanate. I'm sure you're going to miss all these questions on replicating income and liability margins when you're relaxing in Thailand. But just on this question on the corporate side, you talked about increasing levels of working capital lending and lower deposits.

我還有一個問題。當然，祝你好運，塔納特。我相信你在泰國放鬆的時候，肯定會懷念所有這些關於複製收入和負債比率的問題。但就企業方面而言，您談到了營運資金貸款水準的提高和存款水準的降低。

Are those two-points linked, ie, are corporate customers building up working capital and therefore, draining their cash balances in anticipation of higher activity later in the year? And if so, how long should that working capital cycle last for? And would we notice any impact on NII through this year as and when it reverses, either on the lending margin or on the liability margin?

這兩點之間是否有關聯，即企業客戶是否正在累積營運資金，從而消耗現金餘額，以應對今年稍後的業務成長？如果是這樣，那麼這個營運資金週期應該持續多久？當這種情況發生逆轉時，無論是貸款利差還是負債利差，我們是否會注意到今年的淨利息收入會受到任何影響？

Yes. Thanks, Chris. And yes, Tanate will miss those questions. But luckily, we have Ida Lerner, our new CFO, and she already told me yesterday, said she's really looking forward to all these questions. So next quarter, you can expect her to answer these. On the working capital side, yes, I mean, on the wholesale side, you saw that EUR10.3 billion lending and working capital solutions growth.

是的。謝謝你，克里斯。是的，塔納特會想念那些提問的事。但幸運的是，我們有了新的財務長艾達·勒納，她昨天已經告訴我，她非常期待回答所有這些問題。所以下個季度，你們可以期待她回答這些問題。是的，在營運資金方面，我的意思是，在批發方面，你看到了 103 億歐元的貸款和營運資金解決方案成長。

So part was indeed working capital solutions. That had to do with a couple of large deals, very large companies doing very large deals, and we were leading those deals. So that doesn't necessarily have a link with each other that those are, let's say, seasonal swings that sometimes you have and sometimes you don't have.

所以，其中一部分確實是營運資金解決方案。那與幾筆大交易有關，都是一些規模非常大的公司進行的大型交易，而我們正是這些交易的領導者。所以，這些現象之間不一定有聯繫，比如說，季節性波動有時會有，有時則沒有。

Clearly, those working capital solutions deals because they are typically short term and self-liquidating or collateralized or they have a borrowing base behind it. They have lower margins. But we have many of these. And so that doesn't have a particular big impact on the lending margin. When we talk about the cash pooling business, that's the pooling both in our payments and cash management and the notional pooling business, typically, clients at the end of the year, they will consolidate their positions and net them off.

顯然，這些營運資金解決方案之所以有效，是因為它們通常是短期的、可自行清算的，或者有抵押物，或者有借款基礎作為支撐。它們的利潤率較低。但我們有很多這樣的情況。因此，這對貸款利潤率不會產生特別大的影響。當我們談到現金池業務時，指的是我們在支付和現金管理方面的資金池，以及名義資金池業務，通常情況下，客戶在年底會整合他們的頭寸並進行淨額結算。

And because they net them off, they net them off in our accounts, and therefore, you see a lower amount coming in there. So a seasonal pattern.

因為他們會將這些金額抵消，所以會在我們的帳戶中抵消這些金額，因此，你會看到到帳金額減少。所以這是一種季節性法則。

There are no further questions in queue. I will now hand it back to Steven Van Rijswijk for closing remarks.

隊列中已無其他問題。現在我將把發言權交還給史蒂文·範·里斯維克，請他作總結發言。

Yes. Thank you very much. I think we can -- we are very proud of our 2025 numbers and also very confident about '26 and '27, hence, the improved and heightened outlook. And I want to thank you for all your questions and observations today, and again, Tanate, for the fantastic collaboration, and you are a great friend and a great colleague. Thanks very much, everybody, and I hope you have a great Thursday.

是的。非常感謝。我認為我們可以做到——我們對 2025 年的數據感到非常自豪，對 2026 年和 2027 年也非常有信心，因此，前景更加樂觀。我要感謝大家今天提出的所有問題和意見，再次感謝 Tanate 的出色合作，你是一位很棒的朋友和很棒的同事。非常感謝大家，祝大家週四愉快。

Thank you. This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。