International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by.

歡迎，並感謝您的支持。

(Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）今天的會議正在錄製中。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。

Now I will turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM.

現在我將把會議交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy 女士。

Ma'am, you may begin.

女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This is Patricia Murphy, Vice President of Investor Relations for IBM, and I'd like to welcome you to our fourth quarter earnings presentation.

我是 IBM 投資者關係副總裁 Patricia Murphy，歡迎您參加我們的第四季度收益報告。

I'm here today with Jim Kavanaugh, IBM Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天我和 IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jim Kavanaugh 一起來到這裡。

The prepared remarks will be available within a couple of hours, and a replay of the webcast will be posted by this time tomorrow.

準備好的評論將在幾個小時內提供，網絡廣播的重播將在明天這個時候發布。

I'll remind you that certain comments made in this presentation may be characterized as forward looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

我會提醒您，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本演示文稿中的某些評論可能具有前瞻性。

Those statements involve a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

這些陳述涉及許多可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的因素。

Additional information concerning these factors is contained in the company's filings with the SEC.

有關這些因素的其他信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

Copies are available from the SEC, from the IBM website or from us in Investor Relations.

副本可從 SEC、IBM 網站或投資者關係中獲得。

Our presentation also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures in an effort to provide additional information to investors.

我們的演示文稿還包括某些非公認會計原則財務措施，旨在為投資者提供更多信息。

All non-GAAP measures have been reconciled to their related GAAP measures in accordance with SEC rules.

根據美國證券交易委員會的規則，所有非公認會計原則措施已與其相關的公認會計原則措施相協調。

You'll find reconciliation charts at the end of the presentation and in the Form 8-K submitted to the SEC.

您會在演示文稿的最後以及提交給 SEC 的 8-K 表格中找到對賬圖表。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

因此，我將把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Patricia, and thanks to all of you for joining us.

謝謝，帕特里夏，感謝大家加入我們。

The fourth quarter capped off a year where we grew revenue, operating pretax income and operating earnings per share.

第四季度結束了我們收入、營業稅前收入和每股營業收益增長的一年。

We stabilized our margin as we moved through the year, and we expanded gross and pretax margin in the fourth quarter.

隨著全年的發展，我們穩定了利潤率，並在第四季度擴大了毛利率和稅前利潤率。

We continued to invest and take actions to shift our business toward higher-value areas like hybrid cloud and AI, including the announcement of our acquisition of Red Hat.

我們繼續投資並採取行動將我們的業務轉向混合雲和人工智能等更高價值的領域，包括宣布收購紅帽。

And we again generated solid free cash flow, which enables this continued investment and shareholder returns.

我們再次產生了穩定的自由現金流，這使得這種持續的投資和股東回報成為可能。

In the fourth quarter, we delivered $21.8 billion of revenue, which was down 1% at constant currency, though down 3% with the impact of currency translation.

第四季度，我們實現了 218 億美元的收入，按固定匯率計算下降了 1%，但由於貨幣換算的影響下降了 3%。

As always, I'll focus on constant currency results.

與往常一樣，我將關注不變的貨幣結果。

Our operating pretax income was $5 billion, and we had $4.87 of operating earnings per share.

我們的營業稅前收入為 50 億美元，每股營業利潤為 4.87 美元。

We had strong performance in software.

我們在軟件方面表現強勁。

And in services, we had revenue growth and gross margin expansion.

在服務方面，我們實現了收入增長和毛利率擴張。

This was offset by the expected impact of our IBM Z product cycle dynamics.

這被我們的 IBM Z 產品週期動態的預期影響所抵消。

Our total software revenue was up 2%.

我們的軟件總收入增長了 2%。

We entered the quarter with a good pipeline of software opportunities, and we executed well, driven by hybrid cloud adoption and strong demand for analytics and AI offerings.

進入本季度，我們擁有大量的軟件機會，並且在採用混合雲以及對分析和人工智能產品的強勁需求的推動下，我們執行得很好。

Total services revenue was up 2%.

服務總收入增長 2%。

We had steady improvement in Global Business Services throughout the year with 6% growth in the fourth quarter and revenue growth and gross margin expansion across all 3 of our GBS business lines.

全年我們的全球商業服務穩步改善，第四季度增長 6%，我們所有 3 個 GBS 業務線的收入增長和毛利率增長。

Global Technology Services had a modest revenue decline with solid gross margin expansion.

全球技術服務收入略有下降，毛利率穩步增長。

We had a great signings quarter, reflecting strong demand for hybrid cloud implementations and our value prop to deliver productivity.

我們有一個很好的簽約季度，反映了對混合雲實施的強烈需求以及我們提供生產力的價值支柱。

Our hardware revenue was down.

我們的硬件收入下降了。

You'll recall in 2017, we had a terrific fourth quarter in IBM Z, and so our decline reflects a wrap on that performance.

你會記得在 2017 年，我們在 IBM Z 的第四季度表現非常出色，因此我們的下滑反映了該業績的結束。

This continues to be a very successful Z program and remains ahead of our prior cycle.

這仍然是一個非常成功的 Z 計劃，並且仍然領先於我們之前的周期。

Once again, we had strong growth in Power with POWER9 now introduced throughout our portfolio.

再次，我們在整個產品組合中引入了 POWER9，Power9 實現了強勁增長。

As you know, we provide technology and industry expertise to help run our clients' most important processes, which puts us in a unique position to help them transform their businesses.

如您所知，我們提供技術和行業專業知識來幫助運行客戶最重要的流程，這使我們處於幫助他們轉變業務的獨特位置。

As we exit 2018, we're continuing to see a few themes across our engagements.

隨著我們退出 2018 年，我們將繼續在我們的活動中看到一些主題。

First, our clients continue to look to turn data into competitive advantage by applying analytics and AI with an industry lens.

首先，我們的客戶繼續尋求將數據轉化為競爭優勢，通過行業視角應用分析和人工智能。

Second, clients are increasingly looking to cloud to drive business value.

其次，客戶越來越希望通過雲來推動業務價值。

As they move more mission-critical workloads to the cloud, they need to securely move data and workloads across multiple cloud environments, and that requires a hybrid and open-cloud strategy.

隨著他們將更多任務關鍵型工作負載遷移到雲端，他們需要跨多個雲環境安全地遷移數據和工作負載，而這需要混合和開放雲戰略。

And third, clients are focused on productivity and predictability in their spend.

第三，客戶關注其支出的生產力和可預測性。

Now IT has always been about driving both technology innovation and productivity with the balance shifting over time.

現在，IT 一直致力於推動技術創新和生產力，平衡隨著時間的推移而發生變化。

We're recently seeing increasing interest in productivity as clients look forward to the next couple of years.

隨著客戶對未來幾年的期待，我們最近看到人們對生產力的興趣日益濃厚。

And so our results this quarter reflect our ability to deliver innovation and productivity.

因此，我們本季度的業績反映了我們提供創新和生產力的能力。

You see this in our strong results in analytics and AI, in our as-a-service cloud revenue and in strong signings in our services business that deliver technology solutions and economic value, all through our integrated value proposition.

您可以從我們在分析和人工智能方面的強勁業績、我們的即服務雲收入以及通過我們的綜合價值主張提供技術解決方案和經濟價值的服務業務的強勁簽約中看到這一點。

That's why companies such as Vodafone and BNP Paribas are leveraging the IBM Cloud, where they benefit from our hybrid multi-cloud capabilities and access to the most advanced technologies.

這就是 Vodafone 和 BNP Paribas 等公司正在利用 IBM Cloud 的原因，他們在 IBM Cloud 中受益於我們的混合多雲功能和對最先進技術的訪問。

And it's why Bradesco Bank made a software, hardware and services multiyear commitment to the IBM Z platform to take them to the next level in AI and hybrid IT with more predictability in their operating costs.

這就是為什麼 Bradesco Bank 對 IBM Z 平台做出軟件、硬件和服務多年承諾，以將其在 AI 和混合 IT 領域提升到一個新的水平，並使其運營成本具有更高的可預測性。

Across our segments, our strategic imperatives revenue for the year was up 9% to about $40 billion.

在我們的細分市場中，我們今年的戰略要務收入增長了 9%，達到約 400 億美元。

Within that, our cloud revenue is over $19 billion, and we exited the year with an annual run rate for cloud delivered as a service of over $12 billion, which is up 21% over last year.

其中，我們的雲收入超過 190 億美元，我們以超過 120 億美元的雲服務年運行率結束了這一年，比去年增長了 21%。

This is a solid base of cloud and cognitive capabilities, and we're continuing to deliver innovation in these high-value areas.

這是雲和認知能力的堅實基礎，我們將繼續在這些高價值領域提供創新。

For example, in the fourth quarter, we introduced AI OpenScale, a platform to manage the life cycle of all forms of AI models; and Multicloud Manager, a service to deploy and manage complete applications in any cloud environment.

例如，在第四季度，我們推出了 AI OpenScale，一個管理各種形式 AI 模型生命週期的平台； Multicloud Manager，一種在任何云環境中部署和管理完整應用程序的服務。

We're adding innovative services like the world's first commercial quantum computer available on the IBM Cloud.

我們正在添加創新服務，例如 IBM Cloud 上提供的世界上第一台商用量子計算機。

You may have seen that ExxonMobil is already using it to help address its most complex business challenges, such as energy exploration and chemicals manufacturing.

您可能已經看到，埃克森美孚已經在使用它來幫助解決其最複雜的業務挑戰，例如能源勘探和化學品製造。

The number of new clients using IBM Cloud Private accelerated in the fourth quarter, and adoption is growing for our IBM Cloud Private for Data platform, which was named a leader in the first quarter 2019 Forrester Wave report on enterprise insight platforms.

使用 IBM Cloud Private 的新客戶數量在第四季度加速增長，我們的 IBM Cloud Private for Data 平台的採用率也在增長，該平台在 2019 年第一季度 Forrester Wave 企業洞察平台報告中被評為領導者。

All of this is a validation of our hybrid open approach to cloud, and we have a strong foundation from which to drive synergies across the business with the addition of Red Hat.

所有這一切都是對我們混合開放雲方法的驗證，我們擁有堅實的基礎，可以通過添加紅帽來推動整個業務的協同效應。

Let me pause here to remind you of the value we see from the combination of IBM and Red Hat, which is all about accelerating hybrid cloud adoption.

讓我在這裡暫停一下，以提醒您我們從 IBM 和 Red Hat 的組合中看到的價值，這一切都是為了加速混合雲的採用。

The client response to the announcement has been overwhelmingly positive.

客戶對該公告的反應非常積極。

They understand the power of this acquisition and the combination of IBM and Red Hat capabilities in helping them move beyond their initial cloud work to really shifting their business applications to the cloud.

他們了解此次收購的力量，以及 IBM 和 Red Hat 能力的結合，幫助他們超越最初的雲工作，真正將他們的業務應用程序轉移到雲上。

They are concerned about the secure portability of data and workloads across cloud environments, about consistency in management and security protocols across clouds and in avoiding vendor lock-in.

他們關心跨雲環境的數據和工作負載的安全可移植性、跨雲的管理和安全協議的一致性以及避免供應商鎖定。

They understand how the combination of IBM and Red Hat will help them address these issues.

他們了解 IBM 和 Red Hat 的結合將如何幫助他們解決這些問題。

We see the strong bookings Red Hat recently reported as further evidence of clients' confidence in the value.

我們認為紅帽最近報告的強勁預訂進一步證明了客戶對價值的信心。

Remember, the quarter ended a month after the transaction was announced.

請記住，該季度在交易宣布一個月後結束。

From a value perspective, in addition to the growing Red Hat business itself, we see an opportunity to lift all of IBM by selling more of our own IBM Cloud and by selling more of our analytics and AI capabilities on OpenShift across multiple platforms.

從價值的角度來看，除了不斷增長的紅帽業務本身之外，我們還看到了通過銷售更多我們自己的 IBM Cloud 以及通過跨多個平台銷售更多我們在 OpenShift 上的分析和 AI 功能來提升整個 IBM 的機會。

As clients proceed on their journey to get more business value from the cloud, they need more services help from the digital design to app modernization to native app development to management of hybrid cloud environments.

隨著客戶繼續從雲中獲得更多業務價值，他們需要更多服務幫助，從數字設計到應用程序現代化再到本地應用程序開發再到混合雲環境的管理。

You saw last week the results of Red Hat's shareholder vote with very high participation and over 99% voting in support.

您上週看到了紅帽股東投票的結果，參與度非常高，支持率超過 99%。

We are moving through the regulatory process and continue to expect to close in the second half of 2019.

我們正在通過監管程序，並繼續預計在 2019 年下半年關閉。

We've had a decade-long partnership with Red Hat and extended it nearly a year ago around hybrid and multi-cloud.

我們與紅帽建立了長達十年的合作夥伴關係，並在近一年前圍繞混合雲和多雲進行了擴展。

And now after the announcement in late October, we've begun the internal enablement planning, so we can hit the ground running post-closing.

現在，在 10 月下旬宣布之後，我們已經開始了內部支持計劃，因此我們可以在關閉後開始運行。

So now I'll go through the details of the fourth quarter, wrap up with the summary of the full year and our view of 2019.

所以現在我將詳細介紹第四季度的細節，總結全年的總結和我們對 2019 年的看法。

As I said, our revenue in the quarter was $21.8 billion.

正如我所說，我們本季度的收入為 218 億美元。

This includes a currency hurt to revenue of over $500 million, which is $150 million more than mid-October spot rates suggested, as the dollar has continued to strengthen.

這包括貨幣對超過 5 億美元的收入造成的損失，這比 10 月中旬的即期匯率建議的多 1.5 億美元，因為美元繼續走強。

Looking at our margin dynamics.

看看我們的利潤動態。

We expanded both our gross and pretax operating margins.

我們擴大了毛利率和稅前營業利潤率。

Our gross margin was up 10 basis points with strong performance in the services businesses; together, up 190 basis points.

我們的毛利率上升了 10 個基點，服務業務表現強勁；加起來，上漲了 190 個基點。

This was mitigated by the expected mix headwind from the IBM Z cycle dynamics.

IBM Z 循環動力學的預期混合逆風緩解了這種情況。

Our operating expense was better 5%.

我們的運營費用好於 5%。

When currency impacts the top line, it generally helps expense due to both translation and the benefit of hedging contracts.

當貨幣影響收入時，由於轉換和對沖合約的好處，它通常有助於支出。

And so with the strengthening of the dollar, currency helped our expense by nearly 5 points.

因此，隨著美元走強，貨幣幫助我們的支出減少了近 5 個百分點。

Remember, the majority of our hedges are reflected in expense, and these hedging gains mitigate the currency impacts throughout the P&L.

請記住，我們的大部分對沖都反映在費用中，這些對沖收益減輕了整個損益表中的貨幣影響。

We've been focused on driving productivity in our business, implementing new ways of working like using agile methodologies and leveraging automation and infusing AI into our processes.

我們一直專注於提高我們的業務生產力，實施新的工作方式，例如使用敏捷方法和利用自動化以及將 AI 注入我們的流程。

This provides flexibility to drive innovation in areas like hybrid cloud, AI, security and blockchain while also delivering operating leverage.

這為推動混合雲、人工智能、安全和區塊鍊等領域的創新提供了靈活性，同時還提供了運營槓桿。

Within our expense decline, we also had a lower level of IP income.

在我們的支出下降的同時，我們的知識產權收入水平也較低。

At the beginning of the year, we said we expected IP income to be down year-to-year, and it has been tracking lower, down $165 million year-to-year in the fourth quarter and nearly $450 million for the full year.

今年年初，我們表示我們預計 IP 收入將同比下降，並且一直在下降，第四季度同比下降 1.65 億美元，全年下降近 4.5 億美元。

Putting this expense performance together with our gross margin expansion, pretax margin was up 50 basis points.

將此費用表現與我們的毛利率擴張相結合，稅前利潤率上升了 50 個基點。

Looking at operating tax.

看營業稅。

At the beginning of 2018, we provided a range for our full year tax rate of 16%, plus or minus 2 points, and that was without discrete items.

在 2018 年初，我們提供了 16% 的全年稅率範圍，正負 2 個百分點，並且沒有離散項目。

With our final geographic and product mix, the full year rate without discretes was about 15%, within the expected range.

根據我們最終的地理和產品組合，沒有離散的全年利率約為 15%，在預期範圍內。

Including the discrete items in the first and third quarters, our full year operating tax rate was 8%, which is a headwind year-to-year.

包括第一季度和第三季度的離散項目，我們的全年營業稅率為 8%，與去年同期相比是不利的。

The resulting tax rate in the fourth quarter was 12%, which is up about 6 points year-to-year.

第四季度的最終稅率為 12%，同比增長約 6 個百分點。

Regarding our GAAP tax rate, you saw in our press release that our fourth quarter rate also reflects a charge for a GILTI tax election associated with the implementation of 2017 U.S. tax reform.

關於我們的 GAAP 稅率，您在我們的新聞稿中看到，我們的第四季度稅率還反映了與 2017 年美國稅制改革實施相關的 GILTI 稅收選舉費用。

This charge impacts GAAP net income and GAAP earnings per share.

該費用會影響 GAAP 淨收入和 GAAP 每股收益。

And so turning back to our operating results.

所以回到我們的經營業績。

Operating earnings per share of $4.87 was driven by solid operating leverage, offset by expected headwind from tax.

每股 4.87 美元的營業收益是由穩健的經營槓桿推動的，但被預期的稅收不利因素所抵消。

Looking at our cash metrics.

查看我們的現金指標。

We generate $6.5 billion of free cash flow in the quarter with $11.9 billion for the year, in line with our expectations.

我們在本季度產生了 65 億美元的自由現金流，全年為 119 億美元，符合我們的預期。

Our realization of GAAP net income is 111% for the year, normalizing for the nonoperating tax reform charge.

我們全年實現的 GAAP 淨收入為 111%，正常化了非營業稅改革費用。

This supports a high level of investment and shareholder returns.

這支持高水平的投資和股東回報。

So now let me move on to the segments.

所以現在讓我繼續討論這些部分。

Cognitive Solutions revenue was up 2% with 3% growth in solutions software and 1% growth in transaction processing software.

認知解決方案收入增長 2%，其中解決方案軟件增長 3%，交易處理軟件增長 1%。

We expanded pretax margin by nearly 3 points, delivering operating leverage on this revenue growth from both operational efficiencies and mix while still investing at high levels.

我們將稅前利潤率提高了近 3 個百分點，通過運營效率和組合對這一收入增長提供了運營槓桿，同時仍保持高水平的投資。

In the quarter, we continued to deliver innovation to our clients and scale our platforms and solutions, resulting in growth in our transactional revenue and SaaS signings.

在本季度，我們繼續為我們的客戶提供創新並擴展我們的平台和解決方案，從而實現我們的交易收入和 SaaS 簽約的增長。

In transaction processing software, we capitalized on the strong pipeline of larger transactions we discussed entering the fourth quarter, driven by our clients' buying cycles.

在交易處理軟件方面，我們利用了我們討論的進入第四季度的強大交易渠道，這是由客戶的購買週期推動的。

Our fourth quarter performance reflects these clients' commitment to our platform for the longer term given the value we provide in managing their mission-critical workloads and predictability in their spending.

鑑於我們在管理他們的關鍵任務工作負載和支出的可預測性方面提供的價值，我們第四季度的業績反映了這些客戶對我們平台的長期承諾。

In solutions software, growth was led by analytics and AI offerings with several other high-value areas growing as well.

在解決方案軟件方面，分析和人工智能產品引領增長，其他幾個高價值領域也在增長。

In our underlying analytics platform, we had broad-based growth across our Db2 portfolio, including analytics appliances and data science offerings.

在我們的底層分析平台中，我們的 Db2 產品組合實現了廣泛的增長，包括分析設備和數據科學產品。

Demand for our IBM Cloud Private for Data offering accelerated, and now over 100 clients have adopted the platform, and that's since launching just over 6 months ago.

對我們的 IBM Cloud Private for Data 產品的需求加速增長，現在已有 100 多家客戶採用了該平台，而這是自 6 個多月前推出以來。

New clients include the Korea Internet & Security Agency, which is developing an app on ICP for Data that leverages a variety of data sources and machine learning models to find and thwart new cyber threats.

新客戶包括韓國互聯網與安全局，該機構正在開發一個關於 ICP for Data 的應用程序，該應用程序利用各種數據源和機器學習模型來發現和阻止新的網絡威脅。

In addition, we're scaling our newest Watson services running on IBM Cloud Private for Data, like AI OpenScale.

此外，我們正在擴展在 IBM Cloud Private for Data 上運行的最新 Watson 服務，例如 AI OpenScale。

In security, we continue to have solid demand for our integrated security and services solutions, including strong growth in our security intelligence and orchestration offerings, QRadar and Resilient.

在安全方面，我們對集成安全和服務解決方案的需求持續強勁，包括我們的安全智能和編排產品、QRadar 和 Resilient 的強勁增長。

Within our industry verticals, Watson Health had growth across payer, provider, imaging and government.

在我們的垂直行業中，Watson Health 在付款人、提供者、影像和政府方面都有所增長。

And IoT once again had strong growth in our core offerings, Maximo and TRIRIGA, where we lead the market in asset management and facilities management.

物聯網再次在我們的核心產品 Maximo 和 TRIRIGA 中實現了強勁增長，我們在資產管理和設施管理方面處於市場領先地位。

In the emerging blockchain area, we announced several new clients this quarter, including our work with Smart Dubai on Middle East's first government-endorsed blockchain platform.

在新興的區塊鏈領域，我們本季度宣布了幾個新客戶，包括我們與 Smart Dubai 在中東首個政府認可的區塊鏈平台上的合作。

We introduced an on-prem offering in November, the IBM Blockchain Platform for IBM Cloud Private, and signed several new deals this first month.

我們在 11 月推出了本地產品，即 IBM Blockchain Platform for IBM Cloud Private，並在第一個月簽署了幾項新交易。

We see a strong pipeline as clients are interested in the benefits of blockchain behind their firewall.

我們看到了一條強大的管道，因為客戶對防火牆背後的區塊鏈的好處感興趣。

Now over the last few quarters, I called out offerings within our solutions software, which address horizontal domains, where we face secular shifts in the market, specifically collaboration, commerce and talent.

現在在過去的幾個季度裡，我在我們的解決方案軟件中提出了一些產品，這些產品解決了我們面臨市場長期變化的橫向領域，特別是協作、商業和人才。

We've been taking actions, and last month, we announced the divestiture of our collaboration in on-prem marketing and commerce products to HCL.

我們一直在採取行動，上個月，我們宣布將我們在本地營銷和商業產品方面的合作剝離給 HCL。

After closing, which is currently expected to be midyear, this action will improve our Cognitive Solutions' revenue performance, normalizing for the divested content and reflects our commitment to disciplined portfolio management.

在目前預計為年中的交易結束後，這一行動將改善我們認知解決方案的收入表現，使剝離的內容正常化，並反映我們對紀律嚴明的投資組合管理的承諾。

So now moving on to services.

所以現在轉向服務。

Before getting into the 2 segments, I want to provide a view of the total services business.

在進入這兩個部分之前，我想提供一個整體服務業務的視圖。

As I said earlier, revenue was up 2% and gross margin expanded 190 basis points.

正如我之前所說，收入增長了 2%，毛利率擴大了 190 個基點。

Looking at our signings.

看看我們的簽約。

On our last earnings call, we talked about the strong pipeline of deals we had going into the fourth quarter, and we executed well, delivering signings of $15.8 billion, which is up 21% at constant currency.

在我們上次的財報電話會議上，我們談到了進入第四季度的強勁交易渠道，我們執行得很好，簽署了 158 億美元，按固定匯率計算增長了 21%。

This results in a backlog, which is now $116 billion.

這導致積壓，現在是 1160 億美元。

Since it's measured at year-end spot rates, currency is obviously impacting the backlog.

由於它是按年終即期匯率衡量的，因此貨幣顯然會影響積壓訂單。

But at constant currency, the backlog is down 60 basis points year-to-year, which is about a 2-point improvement versus last quarter's performance.

但按固定匯率計算，積壓訂單同比下降 60 個基點，與上一季度的業績相比提高了約 2 個百分點。

Customers are increasingly looking to leverage digital for growth and innovation while at the same time increasing efficiencies and reducing costs within their businesses.

客戶越來越希望利用數字技術實現增長和創新，同時提高效率並降低業務成本。

IBM services can deliver this value by leveraging its breadth across GBS and GTS.

IBM 服務可以通過利用其在 GBS 和 GTS 中的廣度來實現這一價值。

A recent example is at the Bank of Philippines Islands, where we'll provide IT infrastructure services as well as digital experience solutions to support the bank's ongoing digital transformation, increasing their IT efficiency and scale and enabling them to seize opportunities in an increasingly digital financial sector.

最近的一個例子是菲律賓群島銀行，我們將在那裡提供 IT 基礎設施服務和數字體驗解決方案，以支持銀行正在進行的數字化轉型，提高其 IT 效率和規模，使他們能夠在日益數字化的金融中抓住機遇部門。

So now turning to Global Business Services.

所以現在轉向全球商業服務。

We again delivered solid performance, building on the momentum throughout the year.

在全年的勢頭基礎上，我們再次實現了穩健的表現。

The GBS team has done a really nice job repositioning this business, and you could see it in the results.

GBS 團隊在重新定位這項業務方面做得非常出色，您可以在結果中看到這一點。

Revenue grew 6% with growth across all business lines, and gross margin expanded 300 basis points.

隨著所有業務線的增長，收入增長了 6%，毛利率擴大了 300 個基點。

Consulting revenue growth accelerated to 10%.

諮詢收入增長加速至10%。

This is validation of our success in bringing together technology and industry expertise to help our clients on their digital journey.

這證明了我們成功地將技術和行業專業知識結合起來，幫助我們的客戶進行數字化之旅。

We had continued strong growth in Digital Strategy fueled by our digital commerce and CRM offerings.

在我們的數字商務和 CRM 產品的推動下，我們的數字戰略持續強勁增長。

We are also accelerating growth in next-generation enterprise applications led by strong demand in our consulting and implementation services in areas like S/4HANA, Salesforce and Workday.

由於我們在 S/4HANA、Salesforce 和 Workday 等領域對諮詢和實施服務的強勁需求，我們還在加速下一代企業應用程序的增長。

In application management, we grew 4%.

在應用程序管理方面，我們增長了 4%。

This quarter, we returned to growth with strong performance in Cloud Migration Factory and cloud application development, mitigated by continued declines in traditional application management engagements as our clients move to the cloud.

本季度，我們在雲遷移工廠和雲應用程序開發方面的強勁表現恢復了增長，但隨著我們的客戶遷移到雲計算，傳統應用程序管理業務的持續下降有所緩解。

The 4% growth also reflects the achievement of significant milestones across a few accounts.

4% 的增長也反映了幾個賬戶實現了重要的里程碑。

We've been also improving our revenue profile in global process services.

我們還一直在改善我們在全球流程服務中的收入狀況。

Revenue grew 5% as we reinvent industry workflows by leveraging automation and infusing AI.

隨著我們通過利用自動化和注入人工智能來重塑行業工作流程，收入增長了 5%。

And earlier this month, we announced the sale of our Seterus mortgage servicing business.

本月早些時候，我們宣佈出售我們的 Seterus 抵押貸款服務業務。

The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter and will result in improving revenue and margin profile, normalizing for the divested content.

該交易預計將在第一季度完成，並將改善收入和利潤率，使剝離的內容正常化。

So this action, like the divestiture of select software assets, is about portfolio optimization.

所以這個行動，就像剝離精選軟件資產一樣，是關於投資組合優化的。

We're focusing on higher value offerings that are important to our integrated value proposition.

我們專注於對我們的綜合價值主張很重要的更高價值的產品。

Turning to GBS gross profit.

轉向GBS毛利潤。

There are a number of drivers of our 300 basis point expansion, including the operating leverage we get on the revenue growth, our mix towards higher value offerings and capturing the price for value, a help from currency given our global delivery mix, and the yield on our productivity and utilization initiatives, including the realignment of our skills pyramids to key growth areas.

我們的 300 個基點擴張有許多驅動因素，包括我們對收入增長的經營槓桿、我們對更高價值產品的組合和以價值為代價的組合、考慮到我們的全球交付組合以及收益率的貨幣幫助關於我們的生產力和利用率計劃，包括將我們的技能金字塔重新調整到關鍵增長領域。

In Technology Services & Cloud Platforms, we delivered $8.9 billion of revenue, which is flat versus last year, and gross margin expanded approximately 150 basis points.

在技術服務和雲平台方面，我們實現了 89 億美元的收入，與去年持平，毛利率擴大了約 150 個基點。

We continue to have strong growth in cloud revenue in the segment, this quarter up 22% year-to-year.

我們在該領域的雲收入繼續強勁增長，本季度同比增長 22%。

We had a strong signings quarter with 16 transactions over $100 million each.

我們有一個強勁的簽約季度，有 16 筆交易超過 1 億美元。

Both new and existing clients are looking to IBM to manage their critical infrastructure and deliver innovation while simultaneously achieving predictable spending.

新客戶和現有客戶都希望 IBM 管理他們的關鍵基礎架構並提供創新，同時實現可預測的支出。

We continue to see momentum in our open, hybrid multi-cloud approach.

我們繼續看到我們開放的混合多雲方法的勢頭。

I've mentioned BNP Paribas earlier.

我之前提到過法國巴黎銀行。

BNP Paribas has selected IBM to strengthen its cloud environment with a hybrid multi-cloud approach, bringing together the IBM Cloud, private clouds along with existing infrastructure.

法國巴黎銀行選擇 IBM 通過混合多雲方法來加強其云環境，將 IBM Cloud、私有云與現有基礎架構結合在一起。

Leveraging IBM's technical and industry expertise, BNP Paribas will accelerate its digitization to offer its clients the best services while respecting the security and confidentiality of their data.

憑藉 IBM 的技術和行業專長，法國巴黎銀行將加快其數字化進程，為客戶提供最佳服務，同時尊重其數據的安全性和機密性。

Looking at the revenue by line of business.

按業務線查看收入。

Infrastructure services revenue was flat.

基礎設施服務收入持平。

As we prioritize our portfolio, we are exiting some lower-value content, which slightly impacts near-term revenue performance but results in higher margins.

當我們優先考慮我們的投資組合時，我們正在退出一些價值較低的內容，這會稍微影響近期的收入表現，但會帶來更高的利潤率。

In technical support services, revenue was down 3%.

在技術支持服務方面，收入下降了 3%。

TSS continues to be impacted by the hardware product cycle dynamics, partially offset by continued growth in our core multi-vendor services offerings.

TSS 繼續受到硬件產品週期動態的影響，部分被我們核心多供應商服務產品的持續增長所抵消。

And finally, integration software growth accelerated to 4%.

最後，集成軟件增長加速至 4%。

This performance was driven by continued strong adoption of IBM Cloud Private, where we added 200 new clients.

這一業績得益於 IBM Cloud Private 的持續強勁採用，我們在其中增加了 200 個新客戶。

That brings our total number of clients using this innovative platform to 600 in just over a year as they continue to modernize traditional workloads.

隨著我們繼續對傳統工作負載進行現代化改造，在短短一年多的時間裡，我們使用這個創新平台的客戶總數就達到了 600 家。

We also now have over 100 IBM Software offerings integrated with IBM Cloud Private, including blockchain, Watson, IoT and analytics.

我們現在還擁有 100 多種與 IBM Cloud Private 集成的 IBM 軟件產品，包括區塊鏈、Watson、IoT 和分析。

We are continuing to deliver innovation in this space with new offerings to enable clients in an open, hybrid, multi-cloud world, like IBM Multicloud Manager, which I mentioned earlier.

我們將繼續通過新產品在這一領域提供創新，以使客戶能夠進入開放、混合、多雲的世界，例如我之前提到的 IBM Multicloud Manager。

Turning to profit for the segment.

為該部門帶來利潤。

Gross margin improvement is driven by the lift of our productivity initiatives.

毛利率的提高是由我們提高生產力計劃推動的。

This includes infusing AI in automation in our delivery processes such as by leveraging IBM services delivery platform with Watson and embedding agile thinking into our service delivery processes.

這包括在我們的交付流程中註入人工智能，例如通過利用 IBM 服務交付平台和 Watson 並將敏捷思維嵌入到我們的服務交付流程中。

We're also leveraging productivity and talent optimization efforts, where we continue to optimize business processes, re-skill our expert Workforce and leverage our global scale.

我們還利用生產力和人才優化工作，繼續優化業務流程，重新培訓我們的專家勞動力並利用我們的全球規模。

PTI margin was flat, reflecting continued investments to expand our go-to-market capabilities and develop new offerings to capture the hybrid market opportunity.

PTI 利潤率持平，反映了繼續投資以擴大我們的上市能力並開發新產品以抓住混合市場機會。

So to wrap up services, at the beginning of 2018, we said we expected an improving trajectory in our services revenue and profit, and we delivered on that throughout the year with the strong fourth quarter.

因此，總結服務，在 2018 年初，我們表示我們預計我們的服務收入和利潤將出現改善的軌跡，我們全年實現了這一目標，第四季度表現強勁。

In Systems, revenue was down 20% this quarter.

在系統方面，本季度的收入下降了 20%。

I'll remind you that this is compared to a very strong performance in the fourth quarter last year, where we grew 28%.

我會提醒你，這與去年第四季度的強勁表現相比，我們增長了 28%。

Systems pretax margin was down 6.5 points, reflecting the mix headwind from the IBM Z product cycle.

系統稅前利潤率下降 6.5 個百分點，反映了 IBM Z 產品週期的不利因素。

I'll walk through the different dynamics across the hardware portfolio.

我將介紹硬件組合中的不同動態。

In IBM Z, we are 6 quarters into the z14 cycle.

在 IBM Z 中，我們進入 z14 週期的 6 個季度。

Z revenue declined 44%, while margins expanded modestly, in line with where we are in the cycle.

Z 收入下降了 44%，而利潤率溫和增長，與我們在周期中的位置一致。

The program continues to track ahead of the prior program with broad client adoption across industries and countries.

該計劃繼續領先於之前的計劃，客戶在各個行業和國家廣泛採用。

We continued to add new clients and new workloads to the platform.

我們繼續向平台添加新客戶和新工作負載。

Since launching the z14 program, our MIPS capacity has increased nearly 20% with new workload MIPS growing twice the rate of our standard MIPS.

自啟動 z14 計劃以來，我們的 MIPS 容量增加了近 20%，新工作負載 MIPS 的增長速度是我們標準 MIPS 的兩倍。

So we're taking advantage of the secular shifts in the market, and now over 55% of our installed MIPS inventory is in emerging workload areas.

因此，我們正在利用市場的長期變化，現在我們安裝的 MIPS 庫存中有超過 55% 位於新興工作負載領域。

And while there's volatility in the hardware due to product cycles, as we continue to grow our installed base up roughly 3.5x over the last decade, this provides stability in our related software, services and financing business across IBM.

儘管產品週期導致硬件存在波動，但隨著我們的安裝基礎在過去十年中繼續增長約 3.5 倍，這為我們在整個 IBM 的相關軟件、服務和融資業務提供了穩定性。

Power revenue was up 10%, driven by Linux and continued strong adoption across our new POWER9-based architecture.

在 Linux 的推動下，電源收入增長了 10%，並且在我們基於 POWER9 的新架構中繼續得到廣泛採用。

In the fourth quarter, we completed the release of our next-generation POWER9 processors in the high end, and we had strong adoption in both the low- and high-end systems.

在第四季度，我們完成了我們在高端的下一代 POWER9 處理器的發布，我們在低端和高端系統中都有很強的採用率。

Our POWER9 systems are designed for handling advanced analytics, cloud environments and data-intensive workloads in AI, HANA and UNIX markets.

我們的 POWER9 系統專為處理 AI、HANA 和 UNIX 市場中的高級分析、雲環境和數據密集型工作負載而設計。

And we now have extended HANA certification to our POWER9 high end.

現在，我們已將 HANA 認證擴展到我們的 POWER9 高端產品。

In the fourth quarter, we had strong initial traction with our new offerings that optimize both hardware and software for AI such as PowerAI Vision, which we introduced in the second half of 2018.

在第四季度，我們為人工智能優化硬件和軟件的新產品（例如我們在 2018 年下半年推出的 PowerAI Vision）獲得了強大的初始吸引力。

And we've essentially completed the deployment of our supercomputers at the U.S. Department of Energy labs in the quarter.

我們已經在本季度基本完成了在美國能源部實驗室的超級計算機的部署。

Storage hardware was down with declines in midrange mitigated by continued strong growth in all-flash arrays.

由於全閃存陣列的持續強勁增長，存儲硬件有所下降，中端市場的下滑得到緩解。

The storage market remains very competitive with ongoing pricing pressures.

存儲市場在持續的定價壓力下仍然非常具有競爭力。

We're continuing to introduce new innovations and functionality.

我們將繼續推出新的創新和功能。

For example, in December, we extended our next-generation MVME technology into the midrange with strong initial client adoption.

例如，在 12 月，我們將我們的下一代 MVME 技術擴展到中端，並獲得了強大的初始客戶採用率。

We will continue to roll out MVME across the storage portfolio in the first half of 2019.

我們將在 2019 年上半年繼續在整個存儲產品組合中推出 MVME。

So now turning to cash.

所以現在轉向現金。

We generated $7.3 billion of cash from operations in the quarter, excluding our financing receivables.

我們在本季度從運營中產生了 73 億美元的現金，不包括我們的融資應收賬款。

With nearly $900 million in capital expenditures, we generated $6.5 billion of free cash flow in the fourth quarter.

憑藉近 9 億美元的資本支出，我們在第四季度產生了 65 億美元的自由現金流。

This capped off a year with $15.6 billion of cash from operations, also excluding financing.

這以 156 億美元的運營現金結束了這一年，不包括融資。

We invested $3.7 billion in CapEx this year, mainly in our services and cloud-based businesses, and that's up $400 million from last year.

今年我們在資本支出上投資了 37 億美元，主要用於我們的服務和基於雲的業務，比去年增加了 4 億美元。

And so we generated free cash flow of $11.9 billion for the year; and as I mentioned, our normalized free cash flow realization was 111%.

因此，我們全年產生了 119 億美元的自由現金流；正如我所提到的，我們的標準化自由現金流實現率為 111%。

You'll recall that we expected our free cash flow to be about $12 billion for 2018.

您會記得，我們預計 2018 年的自由現金流約為 120 億美元。

The year-to-year decline reflects the headwinds we anticipated from CapEx, working capital and cash taxes.

同比下降反映了我們預期的資本支出、營運資本和現金稅的不利因素。

We returned over $10 billion to shareholders in the year, including dividends of $5.7 billion.

我們在這一年向股東返還了超過 100 億美元，其中包括 57 億美元的股息。

We've now increased our dividend per share for 23 consecutive years, and we remain committed to continued dividend increases.

我們現在已經連續 23 年增加每股股息，我們仍然致力於繼續增加股息。

We also bought back just under 33 million shares, reducing our average share count by over 2%.

我們還回購了近 3300 萬股，使我們的平均股票數量減少了 2% 以上。

At the end of the year, we had $3.3 billion remaining in our buyback authorization.

到年底，我們的回購授權中剩餘 33 億美元。

Now looking at the balance sheet.

現在看資產負債表。

We ended the year with a cash balance of $12.2 billion, which, without the impact to currency, is consistent with the year ago.

我們年底的現金餘額為 122 億美元，在不影響貨幣的情況下，與去年同期持平。

Total debt was $45.8 billion, down $1 billion year-to-year with 68% in support of our financing business.

總債務為 458 億美元，同比下降 10 億美元，其中 68% 用於支持我們的融資業務。

The leverage in our financing business is in line with the target of 9:1, and the credit quality in our financing receivables remains strong at 55% investment grade, 1 point better than a year ago.

我們融資業務的槓桿率符合 9:1 的目標，融資應收賬款的信用質量保持在 55% 的投資級別，比一年前提高了 1 個百分點。

And so our balance sheet remains strong, and we are committed to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating.

因此，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，我們致力於維持強大的投資級信用評級。

As we typically do at the end of the year, I want to provide a quick update on our retirement-related plans.

正如我們通常在年底所做的那樣，我想提供有關我們退休相關計劃的快速更新。

Our U.S. plan has been frozen for over a decade; and over the last several years, we moved our asset base to a lower-risk, lower-return profile.

我們的美國計劃已經凍結了十多年；在過去的幾年裡，我們將資產基礎轉移到了低風險、低迴報的環境中。

At the end of 2018, in aggregate, our worldwide tax-qualified plans are nearly fully funded with the U.S. at 104%, consistent with a year ago.

總體而言，截至 2018 年底，我們的全球稅收合格計劃幾乎全部由美國資助，為 104%，與一年前一致。

So despite the volatility in the markets, our plans are in really good shape.

因此，儘管市場波動很大，但我們的計劃狀況非常好。

So let me start to wrap up with some thoughts on 2018, and then I'll move on to expectations for 2019.

所以讓我開始總結對 2018 年的一些想法，然後我將繼續對 2019 年的期望。

As we opened the year, we talked about the work we had done to reposition our business, to help move our clients to the future, shifting our portfolio, changing our operating model and the way we work and reallocating our capital.

今年年初，我們談到了我們為重新定位我們的業務、幫助我們的客戶走向未來、改變我們的投資組合、改變我們的運營模式和我們的工作方式以及重新分配我們的資本所做的工作。

And in our earnings call last January, we talked about how that drove our expectations for 2018 in revenue, in margin and in earnings per share.

在去年 1 月的財報電話會議中，我們談到了這如何推動了我們對 2018 年收入、利潤率和每股收益的預期。

First, we said we expected to grow revenue at then current spot rates.

首先，我們說我們預計將以當時的即期匯率增加收入。

We did, in fact, grow revenue for the year, and that's despite the U.S. dollar appreciation since early 2018, reducing our revenue growth by about 2 points or $1.7 billion.

事實上，我們今年確實實現了收入增長，儘管自 2018 年初以來美元升值，我們的收入增長減少了約 2 個百分點或 17 億美元。

Second, we said we'd stabilize gross margins.

其次，我們說我們會穩定毛利率。

While we fell a bit short for the full year, we stabilized gross margin in the third quarter and expanded both gross and pretax margin in the fourth quarter and second half.

雖然我們全年的業績有所下降，但我們在第三季度穩定了毛利率，並在第四季度和下半年擴大了毛利率和稅前利潤率。

That's for the first time in over 3 years.

這是 3 年多來的第一次。

We said tax would be a headwind for the year, and it was a headwind to us for the year and in the fourth quarter.

我們說稅收將是今年的逆風，這對我們今年和第四季度來說都是逆風。

We continued to return value to shareholders with share repurchases contributing to earnings per share growth.

我們繼續通過股票回購為每股收益增長貢獻價值回報股東。

And finally, we said we expected operating earnings per share of at least $13.80 and free cash flow of about $12 billion, and we achieved both of these.

最後，我們說我們預計每股運營收益至少為 13.80 美元，自由現金流約為 120 億美元，我們實現了這兩個目標。

So looking back on 2018.

所以回顧2018年。

We grew revenue, operating profit and operating earnings per share for the year with strong free cash flow realization.

我們憑藉強勁的自由現金流實現了本年度的收入、營業利潤和每股營業收益。

We had good momentum in GBS with particular strength in consulting led by our digital and cloud application offerings.

我們在 GBS 發展勢頭良好，在以我們的數字和雲應用程序產品為主導的諮詢方面尤其具有優勢。

We executed well in software in the fourth quarter, finishing the year strong led by analytics and AI and our hybrid cloud software.

我們在第四季度的軟件方面表現良好，在分析和人工智能以及我們的混合雲軟件的帶領下強勢結束了這一年。

As we execute our strategy to help our clients implement hybrid cloud, our total cloud revenue grew to over $19 billion.

隨著我們執行幫助客戶實施混合雲的戰略，我們的云總收入增長到超過 190 億美元。

Across software and services, we continued to build our as-a-service revenue.

在軟件和服務方面，我們繼續增加我們的即服務收入。

We exited the year with a $12 billion annual run rate, which is up 21%.

我們以 120 億美元的年增長率結束了這一年，增長了 21%。

We continued our very successful IBM Z program and strong performance in Power with our POWER9 architecture rollout.

通過推出 POWER9 架構，我們延續了非常成功的 IBM Z 計劃和強大的 Power 性能。

We repositioned our operating model and drove productivity, which improved our margin profile.

我們重新定位了我們的運營模式並提高了生產力，從而改善了我們的利潤率狀況。

We also continue to prioritize our investments and took actions to optimize our portfolio.

我們還繼續優先考慮我們的投資並採取行動優化我們的投資組合。

We announced the sale of select software and services businesses, actions that not only improve our go-forward revenue profile but allow us to increase our focus and investments in the high-value segments of IT in areas like hybrid cloud, AI and blockchain.

我們宣佈出售精選軟件和服務業務，這些舉措不僅改善了我們未來的收入狀況，而且使我們能夠增加對混合雲、人工智能和區塊鍊等 IT 高價值領域的關注和投資。

All of this provides a solid business and financial foundation for the addition of Red Hat, and it gives us confidence in our expectation for full year 2019 operating earnings per share of at least $13.90.

所有這些都為紅帽的加入提供了堅實的業務和財務基礎，也讓我們對 2019 年全年每股運營收益至少為 13.90 美元的預期充滿信心。

Before we go to Q&A, I want to be clear about what is and is not included in our expectations.

在我們進行問答之前，我想弄清楚我們的期望中包含和不包含的內容。

As I mentioned earlier, Red Hat is expected to close in the second half; and given the financial implications to 2019 are heavily dependent on the timing of the closing, Red Hat is not included in our expectations.

正如我之前提到的，Red Hat 預計將在下半年關閉；鑑於對 2019 年的財務影響在很大程度上取決於關閉的時間，我們的預期中不包括紅帽。

We'll update our view of the year at the time of closing.

我們將在收盤時更新我們對年度的看法。

In the last 1.5 months, we've also announced 2 divestitures: the sale of our collaboration and on-prem marketing commerce software and the sale of our Seterus mortgage servicing business.

在過去的 1.5 個月中，我們還宣布了 2 項資產剝離：出售我們的協作和本地營銷商業軟件，以及出售我們的 Seterus 抵押貸款服務業務。

For these businesses, when we consider the combination of the foregone profit, the gain on the sale of software assets, the actions to address structure and stranded costs and the resulting benefits from these actions, we expect there to be minimal impact to our profit and earnings per share for the year.

對於這些業務，當我們考慮放棄的利潤、軟件資產銷售的收益、解決結構和擱淺成本的行動以及這些行動帶來的收益時，我們預計對我們的利潤和年度每股收益。

And unlike the Red Hat acquisition, the timing of the closing does not have a significant impact on the financial implications for the year, though it may affect the quarterly skew.

與收購 Red Hat 不同的是，關閉時間不會對今年的財務影響產生重大影響，儘管它可能會影響季度偏差。

As a result, our guidance assumes these divestitures.

因此，我們的指導假設這些資產剝離。

Said another way, because the divestitures are essentially neutral to our profit for 2019, they don't impact operating EPS guidance for the year, though they do have a benefit to our financial profile over the longer term.

換句話說，由於資產剝離對我們 2019 年的利潤基本上是中性的，它們不會影響今年的運營每股收益指引，儘管它們確實對我們的長期財務狀況有利。

Turning to free cash flow.

轉向自由現金流。

We expect about $12 billion in 2019 with a realization rate of about 100%.

我們預計 2019 年將達到 120 億美元，實現率約為 100%。

This reflects our expected operational profit performance and continued working capital efficiency, partially offset with a cash tax headwind.

這反映了我們預期的運營利潤表現和持續的營運資本效率，部分抵消了現金稅逆風。

We've also taken into account the estimated free cash flow impacts of the software and services divestitures.

我們還考慮了軟件和服務剝離的估計自由現金流影響。

Note that while these are relatively neutral to earnings, they are a headwind to our free cash flow because the gain proceeds flow into the investing section of our cash flow statement.

請注意，雖然這些對收益而言相對中性，但它們對我們的自由現金流構成了不利影響，因為收益收益流入我們現金流量表的投資部分。

Finally, while we haven't included Red Hat, we have taken into account an estimate of the pre-closing financing costs associated with the acquisition.

最後，雖然我們沒有包括紅帽，但我們已經考慮了與收購相關的交割前融資成本的估計。

So when you put it all together, we see free cash flow of about $12 billion, which is roughly flat year-to-year even after absorbing the headwind from the portfolio actions.

因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們看到大約 120 億美元的自由現金流，即使在吸收了投資組合行動的逆風之後，這也與去年同期基本持平。

And with that, let me turn it back to Patricia for the Q&A.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回帕特里夏的問答環節。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items.

在我們開始問答之前，我想提幾個項目。

First, we have supplemental charts at the end of the slide deck that provide additional information on the quarter and the full year.

首先，我們在幻燈片末尾有補充圖表，提供有關季度和全年的更多信息。

This includes the 2018 performance and year-end assumptions for our retirement-related plans and supporting information on the 2019 implications of our divested businesses.

這包括我們退休相關計劃的 2018 年業績和年終假設，以及關於我們剝離業務對 2019 年影響的支持信息。

(Operator Instructions) So operator, let's please open it up for questions.

（操作員說明）所以操作員，讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming Wamsi Mohan of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題是來自美銀美林的Wamsi Mohan。

Jim, IBM delivered a nice profit trajectory here exiting 2018.

吉姆，IBM 在 2018 年結束時在這裡實現了不錯的利潤軌跡。

In this weaker macro backdrop, it looks like you have pretty robust 2019 guidance, and I was hoping that you can help talk to what the profit trajectory looks like at gross and PTI level in 2019.

在這個較弱的宏觀背景下，您的 2019 年指導似乎相當穩健，我希望您能幫助討論 2019 年毛利潤和 PTI 水平的利潤軌跡。

And some color on the broader puts and takes embedded in your 2019 guide, including the IP income and taxes, that would be helpful.

並且在你的 2019 年指南中嵌入更廣泛的看跌期權，包括知識產權收入和稅收，這將是有幫助的。

Okay, Wamsi.

好的，萬茜。

Thank you very much for the question, and it's probably a good place to start given we just concluded the prepared remarks and we talked about some of the dynamics of what's in our guidance.

非常感謝您提出這個問題，鑑於我們剛剛結束了準備好的評論，並且我們討論了我們指導中的一些動態，這可能是一個很好的起點。

But as always, you would expect, we run multiple scenarios here across our business.

但與往常一樣，您會期望，我們在整個業務中運行多個場景。

And we're looking at the trajectory of our business, the macroeconomic environment, what our enterprise clients are telling us.

我們正在關注我們的業務發展軌跡、宏觀經濟環境以及我們的企業客戶告訴我們的內容。

And we also take into account our own operational indices in front of us and our business plans and strategies.

我們還考慮了擺在我們面前的自己的運營指標以及我們的業務計劃和戰略。

And when we put all that together, this is what gives us confidence in an expectation of an operating EPS of at least $13.90 for 2019.

當我們把所有這些放在一起時，這就是讓我們對 2019 年運營每股收益至少為 13.90 美元的預期充滿信心的原因。

Now as I just stated, this guidance excludes Red Hat just given to the timing sensitivity and the financial implications on when it closes, but it includes the announced divestitures.

現在正如我剛才所說，本指南不包括紅帽剛剛考慮到的時間敏感性和關閉時間的財務影響，但它包括宣布的資產剝離。

And we'll talk about that through all these Q&As with regard to any forward-looking guidance.

我們將通過所有這些關於任何前瞻性指導的問答來討論這一點。

But we enter -- from my perspective, we entered 2019 with a much improved business profile in terms of, one, driving operating leverage, and you saw how that played out in the second half, and it's right to the core of your question; and two, our strategic imperatives right now, the high-value emerging segments of the IT industry are now consistently over 50% of IBM's business.

但是我們進入了——從我的角度來看，我們進入 2019 年的業務狀況有了很大改善，一是提高運營槓桿率，你看到了下半年的情況，這正是你問題的核心；第二，我們目前的戰略要務，IT 行業的高價值新興部分現在一直佔 IBM 業務的 50% 以上。

So while we don't give guidance on revenue, let me give you a little color behind that.

因此，雖然我們不提供有關收入的指導，但讓我在這背後給你一點顏色。

And then I'll go to operating leverage and gross and pretax margin and tax as we move forward.

然後，隨著我們的前進，我將討論經營槓桿、毛利率和稅前利潤率和稅收。

But first, I'll start with a tailwind.

但首先，我將從順風開始。

We have a solid annuity base in our business.

我們的業務擁有堅實的年金基礎。

And today, it's about 60% of IBM, and that builds resiliency into our model.

而今天，它約佔 IBM 的 60%，這為我們的模型構建了彈性。

And we got good momentum in our as a service as you heard.

正如您所聽到的，我們的即服務勢頭良好。

We exited the year with an annualized exit run rate of $12.2 billion, and that's up 21% year-over-year.

我們以 122 億美元的年化退出運行率退出了這一年，同比增長 21%。

You combine that with the strength within our services business.

您將其與我們服務業務的優勢相結合。

We accelerated throughout the year, and we exited the year with a very strong performance by a GBS team, who is just doing excellent with regards to continuing to win in front of the marketplace and deliver value to their clients.

我們全年都在加速發展，我們以出色的表現結束了這一年，GBS 團隊在繼續贏得市場並為客戶創造價值方面做得非常出色。

And we also captured significant signings in the fourth quarter that positions our GTS business and really instantiates our value around hybrid cloud and how we're winning.

我們還在第四季度獲得了重要的簽約，這些簽約為我們的 GTS 業務定位，並真正體現了我們圍繞混合雲的價值以及我們如何獲勝。

And then you couple that with solid execution on software.

然後你將它與軟件的可靠執行結合起來。

You know, we talked 90 days ago about where we were at in the third quarter around software, and we made some forward-looking projections, and we turned our software business around to growth growing 2% in the fourth quarter.

你知道，我們在 90 天前談到了我們在第三季度軟件方面的情況，我們做了一些前瞻性的預測，我們將我們的軟件業務在第四季度實現了 2% 的增長。

And we have a strong portfolio lineup, so we would expect that to continue.

而且我們擁有強大的投資組合陣容，因此我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。

And then hardware, yes, we're in the back end of our mainframe cycle.

然後是硬件，是的，我們處於大型機週期的後端。

And I would tell you, it's the most successful mainframe we've had in quite a bit of time.

我會告訴你，這是我們在相當長一段時間內擁有的最成功的大型機。

But we continue to bring new innovation to market to deliver value for our clients in our POWER9 architecture, which is resonating well in the marketplace and we got great acceptance, grew 10% in the fourth quarter.

但我們繼續將新的創新推向市場，以便在我們的 POWER9 架構中為我們的客戶創造價值，該架構在市場上產生了良好的共鳴，我們得到了極大的認可，第四季度增長了 10%。

We expect that will continue to play out in 2019.

我們預計這將在 2019 年繼續發揮作用。

So we've got a good book of business here and some tailwinds at us.

所以我們在這裡有一本很好的商業書籍和一些順風。

And from a headwind perspective, you talked about macro.

從逆風的角度來看，你談到了宏觀。

Well, the first thing I would call out is currency.

好吧，我首先要說的是貨幣。

The U.S. dollar continues to strengthen throughout 2018, especially even since our last earnings call 90 days ago, the U.S. dollar continued to appreciate.

美元在整個 2018 年繼續走強，尤其是自 90 天前我們上次召開財報電話會議以來，美元繼續升值。

And right now you saw in the supplemental charts, we provide you with transparency, we expect about a 1- to 2-point headwind on currency.

現在您在補充圖表中看到，我們為您提供透明度，我們預計貨幣會有 1 到 2 個點的逆風。

And then finally, we are taking very disciplined portfolio actions across our business where they don't align to our integrated value play and where we can reprioritize and focus our investment to drive the value around the IBM company.

最後，我們在整個業務中採取了非常有紀律的投資組合行動，這些行動與我們的綜合價值遊戲不符，我們可以重新確定優先級並集中投資以推動 IBM 公司周圍的價值。

That divested content is going to be about a 1-point headwind.

剝離的內容將是大約 1 分的逆風。

So when you put it all together, we've got some pluses and minuses at the top line, but really, this year in 2019, it's going to be predicated on operating leverage.

因此，當您將所有這些放在一起時，我們在頂線上有一些優點和缺點，但實際上，在 2019 年，這將取決於運營槓桿。

We made good progress through '18, and it positions us very well, and to expand margins in 2019.

我們在 18 年取得了良好的進展，它對我們的定位非常好，並在 2019 年擴大了利潤率。

So amongst all of our scenarios, our guidance model and our expectations indicate that we will expand gross and pretax operating margin in 2019 as we continue to deliver value.

因此，在我們的所有情景中，我們的指導模型和我們的預期表明，隨著我們繼續創造價值，我們將在 2019 年擴大毛利率和稅前營業利潤率。

And that's going to come out of scale efficiencies.

這將超出規模效率。

That's going to come out our services momentum and the mix shift in productivity, which will offset -- more than offset the product cycle mix we still have in the divested content.

這將帶來我們的服務動力和生產力的組合轉變，這將抵消——不僅僅是抵消我們在剝離內容中仍然擁有的產品週期組合。

And one last thing that I would call out is tax.

我要指出的最後一件事是稅收。

We're guiding to an all-in rate of about 11% to 12%, which, by the way, is a headwind year-to-year that we're going to have to overcome, finishing with a printed rate of about 8% in 2018.

我們指導的全押率約為 11% 到 12%，順便說一下，這是我們必須克服的逐年逆風，最終打印率約為 8 2018 年的百分比。

Now this rate assumes estimated potential discretes.

現在這個比率假設了估計的潛在離散。

This is a change.

這是一個變化。

We're doing this to provide enhanced transparency into our guidance as we move forward.

我們這樣做是為了在我們前進的過程中為我們的指導提供更高的透明度。

But I will tell you, discretes by nature vary in timing, they vary in amounts and will be recorded when they occur in 2019.

但我會告訴你，離散的性質在時間上會有所不同，它們的數量會有所不同，並將在 2019 年發生時記錄下來。

But you put all that together.

但是你把所有這些放在一起。

We've got headwinds and tailwinds on revenue, strong portfolio lineup in our high-value services and software.

我們在收入方面遇到了不利因素，我們的高價值服務和軟件擁有強大的產品組合陣容。

We got expanding operating leverage that we expect, the tax rate all-in of about 11% or 12%.

我們得到了我們預期的不斷擴大的經營槓桿，稅率約為 11% 或 12%。

This gives us confidence in our full year EPS of at least $13.90 and a free cash flow of about $12 billion.

這使我們對至少 13.90 美元的全年每股收益和約 120 億美元的自由現金流充滿信心。

Our next question is coming from Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Toni Sacconaghi。

Thank you for the clarification on the previous question.

感謝您對上一個問題的澄清。

I just wanted to know if you could clarify what the size of the expected gain is on the sale of assets to Red Hat -- excuse me, to HCL.

我只是想知道您是否可以澄清將資產出售給 Red Hat 的預期收益大小——對不起，HCL。

And then whether you expect directionally Red Hat to be accretive or dilutive to free cash flow and EPS this year.

然後，您是否期望紅帽在今年有方向地增加或稀釋自由現金流和每股收益。

And then on software, could you comment on the strength that you saw?

然後在軟件方面，你能評論一下你看到的力量嗎？

Was it a pushout?

是外推嗎？

Do you feel like you captured large enterprise license agreements?

您是否覺得自己獲得了大型企業許可協議？

Or is this sort of a more normalized book?

或者這是一本更規範的書？

And should we expect Cognitive to grow in Q1 and Q2 at a similar pace to what we saw in Q4?

我們是否應該期望 Cognitive 在第一季度和第二季度以與第四季度相似的速度增長？

Okay, Toni.

好的，托尼。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

Very good questions.

非常好的問題。

Let me try to take each of these piece by piece.

讓我試著一塊一塊地處理這些。

First of all, as you saw from our last earnings, we continue to take disciplined portfolio prioritization efforts around our portfolio both in terms of the announcement of the acquisition of Red Hat and also the announcement of sale of certain assets within our cognitive and GBS business.

首先，正如您從我們上次的收益中看到的那樣，我們繼續圍繞我們的投資組合採取有紀律的投資組合優先級工作，無論是在宣布收購紅帽，還是宣佈出售我們認知和 GBS 業務中的某些資產方面.

Red Hat, as we talked about, expected was -- we're working through regulatory right now, we expect to close that in the second half.

正如我們所談到的，Red Hat 的預期是——我們現在正在通過監管工作，我們預計將在下半年關閉。

But with regards to your specific question on divestitures, we included in our guidance the sale of our collaboration and on-prem marketing and commerce business and the sale of our Seterus mortgaging business.

但關於您關於資產剝離的具體問題，我們在指導中包括了出售我們的合作和本地營銷和商業業務以及出售我們的 Seterus 抵押業務。

Both of these will drive headwinds, as you can imagine, in revenue for the year.

正如您可以想像的那樣，這兩者都會在今年的收入中帶來不利影響。

We expect the mortgage business to close later in the first quarter.

我們預計抵押貸款業務將在第一季度晚些時候關閉。

That will be a headwind this year to GBS revenue.

這將是今年 GBS 收入的逆風。

But on a sustainable basis, this improves both our revenue profile in GBS and our margin profile as we continue to shift to higher value as we move forward.

但在可持續的基礎上，這改善了我們在 GBS 的收入狀況和我們的利潤率狀況，因為我們在前進的過程中繼續轉向更高的價值。

In terms of our cognitive assets that we sold with regards to collaboration and on-prem, those businesses generated roughly a little bit over $1 billion of revenue over the last 12 months.

就我們出售的與協作和本地相關的認知資產而言，這些業務在過去 12 個月中產生了大約超過 10 億美元的收入。

We said we expected to close that by midyear.

我們說我們預計將在年中結束。

The transaction price was $1.8 billion, but the expected gain, I will tell you, will be a lot less than that $1.8 billion as we're working through the acquisition accounting right now with regards to goodwill and how much goodwill will be applied to that.

交易價格為 18 億美元，但我會告訴你，預期收益將遠低於 18 億美元，因為我們現在正在通過收購會計處理商譽以及將多少商譽應用於此.

But we still expect a sizable gain, nowhere near $1.8 billion but a sizable gain.

但我們仍然預計會有可觀的收益，遠不及 18 億美元，但收益可觀。

And as we said, we've got to overcome, one, the foregone profits of these businesses; the stranded cost of these businesses.

正如我們所說，我們必須克服，一，這些企業已放棄的利潤；這些企業的擱淺成本。

And we will take that gain, and as you would expect, we're going to utilize a portion of that gain to address that stranded cost and structure, and we'll get return on that.

我們將獲得該收益，正如您所期望的那樣，我們將利用該收益的一部分來解決擱淺的成本和結構，我們將獲得回報。

All of that put together is minimal impact to our profit.

所有這些加在一起對我們的利潤影響很小。

So we included that in our guidance.

因此，我們將其包含在我們的指導中。

It has minimal impact to our profit and EPS, but it does have an impact to free cash flow.

它對我們的利潤和每股收益的影響很小，但它確實對自由現金流有影響。

Just given what I said a little while ago in the prepared remarks on the gain on the asset sale will end up in the investing section of free cash flow.

就像我剛才在準備好的關於資產出售收益的評論中所說的那樣，最終將出現在自由現金流的投資部分。

So we've overcome that and still guided a free cash flow that's roughly flat at about $12 billion.

所以我們已經克服了這個問題，並且仍然引導了大約 120 億美元的自由現金流。

Now your second question was on cognitive.

現在你的第二個問題是關於認知的。

We obviously executed well.

我們顯然執行得很好。

You dial back 90 days ago, and we had some pretty frank discussions about our portfolio, how we had confidence in our portfolio, the competitiveness and the value we bring to clients.

您在 90 天前撥回電話，我們就我們的投資組合、我們對投資組合的信心、競爭力和我們為客戶帶來的價值進行了一些非常坦率的討論。

And we didn't execute in third quarter and we came back.

我們在第三季度沒有執行，我們回來了。

We executed on strong pipelines.

我們在強大的管道上執行。

Software was up 2% overall.

軟件總體上漲了 2%。

Our -- we had strong transactional performance.

我們——我們有強勁的交易表現。

Well, probably what I'm most proud about is it was pervasive.

好吧，也許我最自豪的是它無處不在。

We grew in hybrid cloud integration software 4%.

我們的混合雲集成軟件增長了 4%。

We grew in solutions software 3% across many of our offerings led by data and AI and analytics also in many offerings in our industry verticals around Watson Health; and we grew in transaction processing software, which we said that business is mission critical, high value to our clients, and it followed client buying cycles.

我們在以數據、人工智能和分析為主導的許多產品中的解決方案軟件增長了 3%，在我們圍繞 Watson Health 的垂直行業的許多產品中也增長了 3%；我們在交易處理軟件方面取得了增長，我們說業務是關鍵任務，對我們的客戶具有很高的價值，並且它遵循客戶的購買週期。

So if anything in our overall portfolio of software that's tied to SKU, it's really the transaction processing software business where we closed a strong pipeline, which we talked about 90 days ago.

因此，如果我們的整體軟件組合中有任何與 SKU 相關的內容，那就是交易處理軟件業務，我們關閉了一個強大的管道，我們在 90 天前談到了這一點。

So we feel very good about the competitiveness and value of our portfolio.

因此，我們對我們投資組合的競爭力和價值感到非常滿意。

We're going to feel even better when we close the Red Hat acquisition, and what that does to provide us an acceleration and a leadership position on hybrid multi-cloud, and we're excited and looking forward to that.

當我們完成對 Red Hat 的收購時，我們會感覺更好，這會為我們提供加速和在混合多雲方面的領導地位，我們對此感到興奮和期待。

Next question is coming from Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty。

Congrats on the nice numbers in the fourth quarter.

祝賀第四季度的好數字。

Question around linearity in 2019.

關於 2019 年線性度的問題。

There's a lot going on with tax discretes, divestitures.

稅收離散、資產剝離發生了很多事情。

I know the Red Hat numbers aren't in the guidance yet.

我知道紅帽數字還沒有在指南中。

But how should we think about linearity given that the timing of some of these discrete items may change the walk-through in the year?

但是，鑑於其中一些離散項目的時間可能會改變一年中的演練，我們應該如何考慮線性？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, Katy, and thanks on behalf of the entire IBM team.

謝謝你，Katy，並代表整個 IBM 團隊感謝你。

We really just delivered a solid fourth quarter here.

我們真的剛剛在這裡實現了穩定的第四季度。

But if you take a look at it, it's very good question.

但如果你看一看，這是一個很好的問題。

Why don't I just address it by trying to get some visibility into first quarter.

我為什麼不通過嘗試了解第一季度來解決這個問題。

It's right in front of us right now.

它現在就在我們面前。

If you take a look at first quarter, again, we guided full year EPS of at least $13.90.

如果你再看一下第一季度，我們指導全年每股收益至少為 13.90 美元。

If you look at first quarter, first of all, on an EPS perspective, we would expect the operating EPS skew to be around 16% of the full year at $13.90.

如果你看第一季度，首先，從每股收益的角度來看，我們預計營業每股收益偏差約為全年的 16%，為 13.90 美元。

So when you take a look at that, it gets us off to a good start.

因此，當您查看它時，它會讓我們有了一個良好的開端。

It does acknowledge that we are on the back end of a mainframe product cycle, but we got acceleration in our services and our software base of business.

它確實承認我們處於大型機產品週期的後端，但我們的服務和業務軟件基礎得到了加速。

And we feel confident in at least that 16% starting out the year.

我們對從今年開始的至少 16% 充滿信心。

Now if you look at that compared to the last 3 years, it will show that it's a little bit less attainment, but to your -- heart of your question, the last few years, we had substantial discrete tax items in the first quarter.

現在，如果您與過去 3 年相比，它會顯示它的成就有點少，但對於您的問題的核心，過去幾年，我們在第一季度有大量離散的稅收項目。

If you go back to '16, we closed on the Japan audit.

如果你回到 16 年，我們結束了日本審計。

If you go back to last year, we closed on the U.S. audit settlement.

如果你回到去年，我們結束了美國審計和解。

We do not see anywhere near the level of discretes in the first quarter.

我們在第一季度看不到任何接近離散水平的地方。

And I would project somewhere around the 11%, 10%, there might be something within the first quarter, but we're not talking substantial amount.

我會預計在 11%、10% 左右，第一季度可能會有一些東西，但我們並不是在談論大量。

So that is really EPS.

所以這真的是EPS。

On revenue, which we probably had the best visibility just given our operational indices, the mix differential of our revenue base between annuity and transactional when we move from a fourth quarter to first quarter, that seasonality, the transactional businesses have a more muted effect on 1Q versus 4Q.

關於收入，考慮到我們的運營指數，我們可能擁有最好的可見性，當我們從第四季度到第一季度時，我們的收入基礎在年金和交易之間的混合差異，季節性，交易業務對1Q 與 4Q。

And as the mix of more annuity content, which plays out in the first quarter, this should contribute about a 1- to 2-point sequential improvement in our growth at constant currency.

隨著第一季度更多年金內容的混合，這應該會為我們在固定匯率下的增長帶來大約 1 到 2 個百分點的連續改善。

And you know we just came off a fourth quarter with many different dynamics that produced a down 1 at constant currency.

而且你知道我們剛剛結束了第四季度，許多不同的動態導致按固定匯率下降 1。

So we do see an improvement just given the mix shift in the strength of our annuity content as we move forward.

因此，我們確實看到了進步，因為我們在前進的過程中年金內容的強度發生了變化。

The last thing that I'll bring up about first quarter is I talked a little bit about currency for the year.

關於第一季度，我要提到的最後一件事是我談到了今年的貨幣。

We have our toughest compare on currency in the first quarter.

我們對第一季度的貨幣進行了最嚴格的比較。

Just given last year, the dollar weakened throughout the first quarter and then dramatically accelerated or strengthened as we moved through 2Q through 4Q.

就在去年，美元在整個第一季度走弱，然後隨著我們從第二季度到第四季度大幅加速或走強。

So as you saw on the supplemental charts, our currency impact is going to be a 3- to 4-point headwind.

因此，正如您在補充圖表上看到的那樣，我們的貨幣影響將是 3 到 4 個百分點的逆風。

And based on what I looked at where the dollar closed late today, it's going to be probably closer to that 4-point headwind overall.

根據我對今天晚些時候美元收盤價的觀察，它可能更接近整體上的 4 點逆風。

Next question is coming from Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

I wanted to ask on services.

我想問一下服務。

It improved like you said it would in 2018.

正如你所說的，它在 2018 年會有所改善。

I'm curious what your outlook is for 2019 within services because there are some moving parts.

我很好奇您對 2019 年服務業的展望是什麼，因為有一些活動部分。

GBS is performing well.

GBS 表現良好。

Application management's up into a nice place.

應用程序管理是一個不錯的地方。

So curious on the sustainability there.

對那裡的可持續性非常好奇。

And just as a clarification away from the services, with strategic imperatives up 9%, there wasn't as much talk about that in the prepared remark.

就像在服務之外的澄清一樣，戰略要務上升了 9%，在準備好的評論中沒有太多討論這個問題。

I'm curious is that still going to be a metric that's going to be provided or tracked going forward?

我很好奇這是否仍將是一個將提供或跟踪的指標？

Okay, Tien-Tsin, thank you very much for the question.

好的，Tien-Tsin，非常感謝您的提問。

We obviously are very pleased with our services business and how we've continued to reposition our portfolio both in GBS but also in our GTS base of business as we moved throughout 2018.

顯然，我們對我們的服務業務以及我們如何在整個 2018 年繼續在 GBS 和 GTS 業務基礎上重新定位我們的產品組合感到非常滿意。

But when you look at the trajectory of our business, we ended the year with an overall or absolute backlog of $116 billion.

但是，當您查看我們業務的發展軌跡時，我們會發現今年年底的總積壓或絕對積壓為 1160 億美元。

That's down 60 basis points at constant currency, and it's a big improvement from where we started a year ago.

按固定匯率計算，這下降了 60 個基點，與我們一年前開始的情況相比有了很大的進步。

If you remember our discussions here a year ago, we had a lot of discussion about your overall backlogs down 3% at constant currency, and we talked a lot about what we saw play out in 2018, and the team's just done an excellent job.

如果您還記得一年前我們在這裡的討論，我們就您的整體積壓訂單按固定匯率下降了 3% 進行了很多討論，並且我們討論了很多關於我們在 2018 年看到的結果，團隊剛剛做得非常出色。

We're in a much better position.

我們的處境要好得多。

And we do see across our total services business in '19 sustained revenue growth and margin profile.

我們確實在 19 年的整個服務業務中看到了持續的收入增長和利潤率狀況。

But let me take the pieces and just give you a little bit of perspective.

但是，讓我把這些碎片，給你一點觀點。

GBS, couldn't be more proud of the team about what they've done to reposition their portfolio and their offerings in capturing and delivering growth to our clients in digital, in cognitive and cloud.

GBS 為團隊在重新定位其產品組合和產品方面所做的工作感到無比自豪，他們在數字、認知和雲領域為我們的客戶捕捉和交付增長。

You saw on the fourth quarter, we exited GBS.

你在第四季度看到，我們退出了 GBS。

I'll get these numbers pretty close: strategic imperatives growing mid-teens; cloud growing 30-plus percent; and our as-a-service-based business exiting with over a $2 billion number, I think up 64% overall; and we've got pervasive growth across all 3 lines of business led by digital.

我會非常接近這些數字：戰略需求在十幾歲時增長；雲增長 30% 以上；我們基於即服務的業務以超過 20 億美元的數字退出，我認為總體增長了 64%；我們在以數字為主導的所有 3 條業務線都實現了普遍增長。

We did state in application management, where we finally returned back to growth in the fourth quarter, we are executing and delivering value on driving cloud migration services and cloud application development.

我們確實在應用程序管理方面表示，我們最終在第四季度恢復了增長，我們正在執行和交付推動雲遷移服務和雲應用程序開發的價值。

We have a differentiated offering, and we're delivering value to our clients.

我們有差異化的產品，我們正在為我們的客戶提供價值。

But we also closed on many client-specific milestones that caught up in the fourth quarter, but we still see good growth.

但我們也完成了第四季度趕上的許多特定於客戶的里程碑，但我們仍然看到了良好的增長。

It's just not going to be at the level that you saw here in the fourth quarter.

它只是不會達到你在第四季度看到的水平。

With all that said, our margin and operating leverage, we feel comfortable.

綜上所述，我們的利潤率和經營槓桿，我們感到很舒服。

We grew GBS operating gross margins 300 basis points in the fourth quarter.

我們在第四季度將 GBS 營業毛利率提高了 300 個基點。

That will dissipate throughout 2019, but we still see strong operating leverage led by our mix shift to higher value and the offerings, how we're capturing that price realization and how we're delivering real value and quality to our clients.

這將在整個 2019 年消散，但我們仍然看到強勁的經營槓桿作用是由我們的組合轉向更高的價值和產品、我們如何捕捉價格實現以及我們如何為客戶提供真正的價值和質量。

Now in GTS, we are obviously winning with our hybrid cloud momentum.

現在在 GTS 中，我們顯然憑藉混合雲的勢頭贏得了勝利。

We had a strong signings quarter, really led by GTS overall and the hybrid cloud value prop; delivered $15.8 billion of signings, up 21%.

我們有一個強勁的簽約季度，真正由 GTS 整體和混合雲價值支柱引領；簽約 158 億美元，增長 21%。

That's what improved that backlog position here at the end of the year.

這就是在年底改善積壓情況的原因。

And we're exiting with an $8 billion as-a-service annualized exit run rate, which provides a strong annuity base content and resiliency in our model.

我們正在以 80 億美元的即服務年化退出運行率退出，這為我們的模型提供了強大的年金基礎內容和彈性。

Now with that said, we are doing portfolio prioritization in GTS.

話雖如此，我們正在 GTS 中進行投資組合優先級排序。

We are constantly going to focus on where we can exploit and deliver value to our client and also make high-value returns for the IBM shareholder.

我們將不斷關注我們可以在哪些方面為客戶開發和創造價值，並為 IBM 股東創造高價值回報。

We are walking away from low value-based content in GTS.

我們正在遠離 GTS 中基於低價值的內容。

You saw that in the fourth quarter where our GTS business overall was down, I think, 50, 70 basis points.

你看到在第四季度，我們的 GTS 業務整體下降了 50、70 個基點。

And while you see that absolute backlog improve, we are going to continue prioritizing high value because we want to get prioritization of cash, profit and margin out of that business and leverage that business in the value of incumbency and moving our clients to the future and capitalizing on hybrid cloud.

雖然您看到絕對積壓有所改善，但我們將繼續優先考慮高價值，因為我們希望從該業務中獲得現金、利潤和利潤的優先級，並利用該業務的現有價值並將我們的客戶轉移到未來和利用混合雲。

So we'll see continued margin expansion in GTS as we move forward, and that's going to come out of very similar scale efficiencies, productivity.

因此，隨著我們的前進，我們將看到 GTS 的利潤率持續增長，這將來自非常相似的規模效率和生產力。

And remember, in both, we're still going to get the second half of our productivity from our 2018 actions.

請記住，在這兩種情況下，我們仍然會從 2018 年的行動中獲得下半年的生產力。

So we feel pretty comfortable and confident in our services base of business as we walk into '19.

因此，當我們進入 19 世紀時，我們對我們的服務業務基礎感到非常自在和自信。

Next question is coming from David Grossman of Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman。

So Jim, you've announced 2 divestitures in the last 6 weeks.

吉姆，你在過去 6 週內宣布了 2 次資產剝離。

I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks exiting some GTS business that was perhaps lower margins, lower growth.

我認為您在準備好的講話中提到退出一些可能是利潤率較低、增長較低的 GTS 業務。

Obviously, without getting too specific, what else can you tell us about the other efforts that are underway to streamline the legacy core that may positively impact the agility of the organization as well as positively impact your growth rate?

顯然，不用說得太具體，您還能告訴我們其他正在為精簡遺留核心所做的努力，這些努力可能對組織的敏捷性以及您的增長率產生積極影響？

Okay, David.

好的，大衛。

Thanks very much for the question.

非常感謝這個問題。

Let me take a big step back.

讓我退後一大步。

Obviously, I've been thinking about this as has Ginni and everyone else.

顯然，我和 Ginni 和其他人一樣一直在考慮這個問題。

And from my perspective, we constantly say IBM is a high-value-based company.

在我看來，我們經常說 IBM 是一家以高價值為基礎的公司。

We're high value to our clients.

我們對客戶很有價值。

We're high value to our shareholders.

我們對股東具有很高的價值。

And the way we remain high value is through disciplined portfolio optimization.

我們保持高價值的方式是通過嚴格的投資組合優化。

And whether you go over what we just did the last 90, 120 days or you go over the last 3 years to 5 years, we have constantly focused on, one, where is the market moving in terms of growth; high-value offerings; client value; and most importantly, profit pools.

無論您回顧我們過去 90 天、120 天所做的事情，還是回顧過去 3 到 5 年，我們一直在關注，一是市場在增長方面的變化；高價值產品；客戶價值；最重要的是，利潤池。

And you're seeing us continue to do that as we move forward.

你會看到我們在前進的過程中繼續這樣做。

These latest actions really center around disciplined portfolio prioritization around market attractiveness, around differentiation and around how they really played to the integrated value of the IBM portfolio.

這些最新行動真正圍繞著圍繞市場吸引力、差異化以及它們如何真正發揮 IBM 產品組合的綜合價值的有紀律的產品組合優先級展開。

Our differentiated hardware-software services, and that was really at the heart of the divestitures that we just announced around certain assets in our Cognitive Solutions segment and in our global processing mortgage servicing unit.

我們差異化的硬件-軟件服務，這確實是我們剛剛宣布的圍繞我們的認知解決方案部門和我們的全球處理抵押貸款服務部門的某些資產進行資產剝離的核心。

They were basically more and more sold as standalone-only products and offerings that can be leveraged and delivered to our clients through a different partner, who will make the investment prioritization as we go -- move forward.

它們基本上越來越多地作為單獨的產品和產品出售，可以通過不同的合作夥伴加以利用並交付給我們的客戶，他們將在我們前進的過程中確定投資優先級 - 繼續前進。

I could tell you, we're always looking at portfolio optimization and how we prioritize our investment and capital allocation.

我可以告訴你，我們一直在關注投資組合優化以及我們如何優先考慮我們的投資和資本配置。

And you see that with the announcement of Red Hat, and you see that play out in what we just did with cognitive and GBS.

您會在 Red Hat 的發布中看到這一點，並且您會在我們剛剛對認知和 GBS 所做的事情中看到這一點。

But as we go forward, we're going to continue prudently managing our portfolio and operate with that financial discipline in terms of acquisitions.

但隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續審慎地管理我們的投資組合，並在收購方面遵守財務紀律。

Our strategy hasn't changed.

我們的策略沒有改變。

It's always been built around supporting high value, and it's built around leveraging the investment thesis and narrative of IBM, innovative technology, deep industry expertise and trust and security all delivered through an integrated model of hardware-software services.

它始終圍繞支持高價值而構建，並且圍繞利用 IBM 的投資理念和敘述、創新技術、深厚的行業專業知識以及信任和安全性而構建，所有這些都通過硬件-軟件服務的集成模型提供。

And then finally, I would tell you, we have a strong balance sheet.

最後，我要告訴你，我們擁有強大的資產負債表。

We have great cash flow, and we have enough financial flexibility to continue invest in our business and returning value to our shareholders over the long term.

我們擁有巨大的現金流，我們有足夠的財務靈活性來繼續投資於我們的業務並長期為我們的股東回報價值。

So we feel pretty good.

所以我們感覺還不錯。

Next question is coming from John Roy of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的約翰·羅伊。

So obviously, cloud is a trend that everybody is getting on more and more here on the enterprise space and yet you had somewhat of a flat quarter.

很明顯，雲是一種趨勢，每個人都在企業領域越來越多地參與其中，但你的季度表現平平。

I was curious as to when you win cloud deals as to why and how do you see the Red Hat acquisition as changing the color around why you win and how much you win.

我很好奇你什麼時候贏得云交易，你為什麼以及如何看待紅帽收購改變了你為什麼贏和贏了多少的顏色。

Okay, John, thank you very much for the question.

好的，約翰，非常感謝你的提問。

Let me try to put this in perspective around cloud.

讓我試著從雲的角度來看待這個問題。

First of all, our cloud overall for the year was $19.2 billion.

首先，我們今年的雲計算總額為 192 億美元。

That was up 12%.

上漲了 12%。

And within that, as we always talk about, the high-value emerging areas of as-a-service finished with an annualized exit run rate of $12.2 billion, up 21%, which really clearly underlines our consistent execution and us capturing the high-value secular shifts around cloud in that as-a-service.

其中，正如我們經常談論的那樣，即服務的高價值新興領域以 122 億美元的年化退出運行率完成了 21%，這確實清楚地強調了我們始終如一的執行力和我們捕捉到的高價值在該服務中，價值圍繞雲的長期轉變。

No when you look at cloud in the quarter, the cloud number as printed really reflects the same fundamental headwind on the ramp of the product cycle of mainframe that we had to overcome.

不，當您查看本季度的雲時，打印的雲數確實反映了我們必須克服的大型機產品週期斜坡上的基本逆風。

Now that isn't new.

現在這已經不是什麼新鮮事了。

We expected that.

我們預料到了。

We've been talking about that all year long.

我們一整年都在談論這個問題。

Second half of the year, we knew we were going to be on the back end of our mainframe product cycle.

今年下半年，我們知道我們將處於大型機產品週期的後端。

Remember, we came off of mainframe that grew 71% in the fourth quarter of 2017.

請記住，我們擺脫了 2017 年第四季度增長 71% 的大型機。

And this is, as I said before, the most successful mainframe product cycle in quite some time, which, by the way, generates and captures new emerging workloads around pervasive encryption but also is capturing new workloads around cloud as we move forward.

正如我之前所說，這是相當長一段時間內最成功的大型機產品週期，順便說一句，它圍繞普遍加密生成和捕獲新出現的工作負載，但隨著我們的前進，它也在圍繞雲捕獲新的工作負載。

So that cloud business without mainframe was actually up 19%.

因此，沒有大型機的雲業務實際上增長了 19%。

That's an acceleration underlying our software acceleration from 3Q to 4Q, underlining our services acceleration from 3Q to 4Q.

這是我們從 3Q 到 4Q 的軟件加速的基礎，強調了我們從 3Q 到 4Q 的服務加速。

And we see that as we move forward because, remember, although we had a deal with the largest transactional quarter on mainframe, albeit in 2019, that starts to dissipate because we're through that biggest volume-based quarter.

我們看到，隨著我們的前進，請記住，儘管我們與大型機交易量最大的季度達成了交易，儘管是在 2019 年，但由於我們經歷了基於交易量的最大季度，這種情況開始消散。

So we see cloud still resonating with our clients.

因此，我們看到雲仍然與我們的客戶產生共鳴。

And to your heart of your question about Red Hat, Red Hat and IBM together, we see this movement of how we can deliver value in leading the second phase, Ginni calls this chapter 2, the second phase around where clients are moving very business-critical, business-value-led workloads, and that's about 80% of the workloads ahead of us.

對於您關於 Red Hat、Red Hat 和 IBM 的問題的核心，我們看到了我們如何在領導第二階段提供價值的運動，Ginni 將這一章稱為第 2 章，第二階段圍繞客戶非常商業化的地方-關鍵的、以業務價值為主導的工作負載，這大約是我們面前工作負載的 80%。

So the value of bringing IBM and Red Hat together is going to be centered around hybrid, open, multi-cloud and us wrapping around our security, secure to the core, and how we're going to deliver that differentiated value proposition.

因此，將 IBM 和 Red Hat 結合在一起的價值將集中在混合、開放、多雲上，而我們圍繞著我們的安全性、安全到核心，以及我們將如何提供差異化的價值主張。

And we're just excited about what Red Hat is going to mean to the IBM company and our clients.

我們只是對 Red Hat 對 IBM 公司和我們的客戶的意義感到興奮。

Next question is coming from Jim Schneider of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Jim Schneider。

Jim, it's good to see the improvement in software and cognitive relative to last quarter.

吉姆，很高興看到軟件和認知相對於上一季度有所改善。

And I guess, the question is, on a go-forward basis, you have a target of mid-single-digit growth long term in cognitive.

而且我想，問題是，在向前發展的基礎上，你的目標是在認知方面實現中個位數的長期增長。

Is it realistic to expect that you could achieve that as we head throughout 2019?

在我們整個 2019 年前進時，期望您能夠實現這一目標是否現實？

And can you maybe talk about the impact of any of the transactional business you may have seen this quarter that might affect that?

您能否談談本季度您可能看到的任何交易業務的影響？

And just kind of talk broadly about the macro environment for that product set in general.

並且只是廣泛地談論該產品集的宏觀環境。

Yes, Jim, thanks very much for the question overall.

是的，吉姆，非常感謝整個問題。

We are pleased with our software performance exiting the year.

我們對今年以來的軟件性能感到滿意。

As I talked about, I think it's really an instantiation that demonstrates our ability to deliver innovative solutions embedded with AI that drives business value to our clients really through an industry lens that plays across the integrated value of IBM with our services base of business and stacked on top of our hardware-based platforms.

正如我所談到的，我認為這確實是一個實例，展示了我們提供嵌入人工智能的創新解決方案的能力，這些解決方案真正通過一個行業視角來為我們的客戶帶來商業價值，該視角貫穿 IBM 的綜合價值與我們的業務服務基礎和堆疊在我們基於硬件的平台之上。

But when you look at fourth quarter, we exited 2% growth.

但是當你看第四季度時，我們退出了 2% 的增長。

We had good pervasive growth across the portfolio, as I said before, good, strong transactional growth, good SaaS signings, high renewal rates.

正如我之前所說，我們在整個投資組合中實現了良好的普遍增長，良好、強勁的交易增長、良好的 SaaS 簽約、高續訂率。

And remember, this Cognitive Solutions segment is high value, high operating margins, and we continued to expand operating margins here in the fourth quarter and for the full year.

請記住，這個認知解決方案部門是高價值、高營業利潤率的，我們在第四季度和全年繼續擴大營業利潤率。

Now when you take a step back, you asked long term, well, obviously, in 2019, we're going to deal with the headwind I talked about with the divested content.

現在，當您退後一步時，您問的是長期的，嗯，很明顯，在 2019 年，我們將應對我談到的剝離內容的逆風。

That will to Cognitive Solutions probably be, on a trailing 12 months, we did a little over $1 billion.

Cognitive Solutions 的意願可能是，在過去的 12 個月裡，我們做了超過 10 億美元。

So it would be about a 4-, 5-point headwind in '19, and that's pre-Red Hat acquisition because Red Hat's not in '19 yet.

所以這將是 19 年 4 點、5 點的逆風，這是 Red Hat 收購之前的事情，因為 Red Hat 還沒有在 19 年。

But we're going to have, right off the bat, a 4- to 5-point headwind.

但我們馬上就會遇到 4 到 5 分的逆風。

But the underlying fundamentals in our long-term sustainability around that, yes, our long-term model has not changed.

但我們長期可持續發展的基本面，是的，我們的長期模式沒有改變。

We still see the strength of our offering portfolio, one, even getting better around our hybrid integration software; two, around our analytics portfolio, which just had a great quarter; data AI; our industry-based verticals.

我們仍然看到我們的產品組合的實力，其中之一，甚至在我們的混合集成軟件方面變得更好；第二，圍繞我們的分析產品組合，該產品剛剛有一個很好的季度；數據人工智能；我們基於行業的垂直領域。

Our Watson Health had growth across many of its offerings as I talked about earlier.

正如我之前談到的，我們的 Watson Health 在其許多產品中都有增長。

And even in IoT, we had growth around our core franchises of facilities management and asset management, Maximo and TRIRIGA.

即使在物聯網領域，我們的核心設施管理和資產管理特許經營權 Maximo 和 TRIRIGA 也實現了增長。

So we got a good lineup.

所以我們有一個很好的陣容。

It's going to be on us to execute here in 2019.

我們將在 2019 年在這裡執行。

We fully expect to do that.

我們完全希望這樣做。

Next question is coming from Joseph Foresi of Cantor Fitzgerald.

下一個問題來自 Cantor Fitzgerald 的 Joseph Foresi。

It sounded like in your remarks earlier that you thought you could deliver sustainable organic constant currency growth in 2019.

在您之前的講話中，您似乎認為您可以在 2019 年實現可持續的有機恆定貨幣增長。

If so, does that include or exclude Red Hat?

如果是這樣，這包括還是不包括紅帽？

And then just as importantly, maybe you can give us some color around first half margins versus second half margins and maybe what the margin exit rate will be for '19.

然後同樣重要的是，也許你可以給我們一些關於上半年利潤率和下半年利潤率的顏色，也許還有 19 年的利潤率退出率。

Sure, Joe.

當然，喬。

Thank you very much for the call.

非常感謝您的來電。

First of all, we don't guide on revenue for the year, so I don't remember stating that we are going to grow the year at constant currency organically, et cetera.

首先，我們不指導當年的收入，所以我不記得說過我們將以固定貨幣有機地增長這一年，等等。

Red Hat's not in any of the guidance as we talked about upfront.

正如我們前面談到的那樣，紅帽不在任何指導中。

We do have the divestitures in here.

我們確實在這裡進行了資產剝離。

Divestitures are going to be about a 1-point headwind as we move forward.

隨著我們前進，資產剝離將是一個大約 1 分的逆風。

And as I stated, currency is going to be a 1- to 2-point headwind at actual rates.

正如我所說，以實際匯率計算，貨幣將成為 1 到 2 個百分點的逆風。

But we do feel confident in the book of business we have around our services and around our software as we move forward.

但是，隨著我們的前進，我們確實對我們圍繞我們的服務和我們的軟件擁有的業務手冊充滿信心。

But the underlying dynamics, as I talked about, we have many different scenarios we're running here.

但是，正如我所談到的，潛在的動態是我們在這裡運行的許多不同的場景。

All point to giving us confidence in our expectation of at least $13.90 as we move forward.

所有這些都讓我們對我們前進的至少 13.90 美元的預期充滿信心。

That is going to be a mixture of the mix of our portfolio, the revenue of our portfolio, the operating leverage of our portfolio, the tax structure, IP.

這將是我們投資組合的混合，我們投資組合的收入，我們投資組合的運營槓桿，稅收結構，知識產權。

There are many different variables that go into that $13.90 overall.

總共 13.90 美元有許多不同的變量。

We do see strong operating leverage continuing in 2019, both gross and pretax margin, leveraging our scale efficiencies, leveraging our mix shift to higher value, leveraging our productivity initiatives.

我們確實看到 2019 年繼續保持強勁的經營槓桿，包括毛利率和稅前利潤率，利用我們的規模效率，利用我們向更高價值的組合轉變，利用我們的生產力計劃。

And when you look at it, we've got great momentum exiting second half, in particular around our services base of business.

當你看到它時，我們在下半年有很大的動力，特別是在我們的服務業務基礎上。

Second half services grew operating gross margins by 200 basis points, and I think you would expect a similar first half trend around that.

下半年服務業的營業毛利率增長了 200 個基點，我認為您會預計上半年會出現類似的趨勢。

And then second half, we'll start wrapping on a little tougher compares, but for the first -- or excuse me, for the full year, we would expect good operating leverage, and that's what we're guiding to.

然後下半年，我們將開始進行更嚴格的比較，但對於第一年 - 或者對不起，全年，我們預計會有良好的運營槓桿，這就是我們的指導方針。

Our next question is coming from Jim Suva of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Jim Suva。

In your prepared slides, Slide #10, it was very informative to help us bridge the 2 different years on earnings.

在您準備好的幻燈片中，幻燈片 #10，它非常有用，可以幫助我們彌合 2 個不同年份的收入。

The question I have is, as we look forward to next year, I know you have a lot of variables, are there any bridge items that you want to particularly call us out for as most likely to happen to hit your $13.90?

我的問題是，在我們期待明年的時候，我知道你有很多變數，你有沒有什麼橋牌項目需要特別提醒我們，因為它最有可能達到你的 13.90 美元？

And how come cash flow wouldn't be growing if you have earnings growing?

如果你的收入增長，為什麼現金流不會增長？

Okay, Jim.

好的，吉姆。

First of all, thank you for the question.

首先，謝謝你的提問。

Thanks for the compliment.

謝謝你的讚美。

The team does work very hard to provide the right level of transparency so our investors can understand the operating dynamics of our business.

該團隊確實非常努力地提供適當的透明度，以便我們的投資者能夠了解我們業務的運營動態。

And Chart 10 lays out that full year.

圖表 10 列出了這一整年。

You see how 2018 played out, strong operating leverage, tax headwind, revenue growth at actuals.

您會看到 2018 年的表現，強勁的經營槓桿，稅收逆風，實際收入增長。

When you look at it and you go back to beginning of January last year, we stated what we saw for the year.

當您查看它並回到去年 1 月初時，我們陳述了我們在這一年中看到的情況。

We grew revenue.

我們增加了收入。

We grew operating leverage.

我們提高了經營槓桿。

We grew operating pretax income.

我們增加了營業稅前收入。

We grew earnings per share, and that played out well.

我們提高了每股收益，而且效果很好。

If you look at 2019, as I stated, many different scenarios.

正如我所說，如果你看看 2019 年，會有許多不同的情況。

But what have we talked about already on this call?

但是我們在這次電話會議上已經談了些什麼？

One, we see continued operating leverage coming out of gross and pretax margin in 2019.

一，我們看到 2019 年毛利率和稅前利潤率的持續經營槓桿。

Two, we do see tax being a headwind to us in 2019.

第二，我們確實認為稅收在 2019 年對我們不利。

And again, we tried to provide enhanced transparency, where we're giving you an all-in rate of at least 11% to 12%, but even with that, that's a 3- to 4-point headwind.

再一次，我們試圖提供更高的透明度，我們為您提供至少 11% 到 12% 的全押率，但即便如此，這也是 3 到 4 點的逆風。

We'll continue to buy back shares as we talked about.

正如我們所說，我們將繼續回購股票。

I think that's, one, a level of confidence that we have in the long-term value of IBM, but it's also a level of confidence that we have in the power of the IBM and Red Hat acquisition.

我認為這是我們對 IBM 的長期價值的一種信心，但這也是我們對 IBM 和 Red Hat 收購的力量的信心。

So I think you could see that continuing to play out.

所以我認為你可以看到它繼續發揮作用。

And then, I guess, last, we talked about currency on revenue.

然後，我想，最後，我們談到了收入的貨幣。

Currency on revenue, the impact of 1 to 2 points and the divestitures.

貨幣對收入、1 至 2 點的影響以及資產剝離。

So we will continue showing the transparency of this EPS bridge, helps our investors understand the operating dynamics as we move forward.

因此，我們將繼續展示這個 EPS 橋樑的透明度，幫助我們的投資者了解我們前進的運營動態。

And then, Jim, on your question on cash, as Jim said in the prepared remarks, we obviously have a headwind from the divested businesses because we have the foregone -- we'll have foregone profit and we'll have a gain, but the gain doesn't go into free cash flow.

然後，吉姆，關於你關於現金的問題，正如吉姆在準備好的評論中所說，我們顯然受到剝離業務的不利影響，因為我們已經放棄了——我們將放棄利潤，我們將獲得收益，但是收益不會進入自由現金流。

We also will have some items that hit our free cash flow relative to some pre-closing costs for Red Hat.

相對於紅帽的一些收盤前成本，我們還將有一些項目影響我們的自由現金流。

So that's the reason that the free cash flow is flat despite the fact that we have a couple of headwinds within that.

這就是自由現金流持平的原因，儘管我們在其中遇到了一些不利因素。

Our last question in queue is coming from Keith Bachman of BMO.

我們排隊的最後一個問題來自 BMO 的 Keith Bachman。

Jim, just a clarification first then a question.

吉姆，首先是一個澄清，然後是一個問題。

On the clarification, you mentioned the impact of the divestitures.

關於澄清，您提到了資產剝離的影響。

In the slides, it indicates the impact is $1.5 billion.

在幻燈片中，它表明影響為 15 億美元。

I think you said $1 billion was coming out of Cognitive.

我想你說 10 億美元來自 Cognitive。

And I just wanted to see if you'd just clarify where is the rest coming out of?

我只是想看看你是否只是澄清一下其餘部分是從哪裡來的？

And then the question is on Technology Services & Cloud Platforms.

然後是關於技術服務和雲平台的問題。

I wanted to get your perspective.

我想了解你的觀點。

As you look at 2019, this business continues to trail a little bit relative to GBS in terms of revenue performance.

當您查看 2019 年時，該業務在收入表現方面繼續落後於 GBS。

Would you expect or anticipate this business to grow in CY '19?

您是否期望或預計這項業務會在 19 年的 CY 中增長？

And therefore, would you expect operating leverage to also be demonstrated in this business?

因此，您是否期望在該業務中也能展示經營槓桿？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Keith, for the question overall.

謝謝，基思，為整個問題。

First of all, on your clarification, the impact to divestitures.

首先，關於您的澄清，對資產剝離的影響。

We actually did provide a supplemental chart that hopefully each of you and our investors will appreciate on the transparency and the implications both on '19 and then directionally on 2019.

實際上，我們確實提供了一個補充圖表，希望你們每個人和我們的投資者都能了解 19 年和 2019 年的透明度和影響。

I think I said a little over $1 billion.

我想我說的是超過 10 億美元。

If you look at Chart, what is it, 15, in the supplementals, the Cognitive software assets of divesting collaboration and our on-prem marketing and commerce was about -- was $1.3 billion.

如果你看一下 Chart，它是什麼，15，在補充材料中，剝離協作和我們的本地營銷和商業的認知軟件資產約為 - 13 億美元。

So that's what I meant about a little over $1 billion.

這就是我所說的超過 10 億美元。

When you take a look at the GBS mortgage servicing divestiture, that's about $200 million.

當您查看 GBS 抵押貸款服務資產剝離時，這大約是 2 億美元。

So on a full year basis, annualized, it's about $1.5 billion between the 2 of them.

因此，按全年計算，兩者之間的年化收入約為 15 億美元。

So hopefully, that answers the clarification.

所以希望這能回答澄清。

And then on your second question, TS&CP.

然後關於您的第二個問題，TS&CP。

We finished the year with strong signings growth, which really instantiates our hybrid cloud value proposition and also the value of incumbency that we provide with our clients of understanding their workloads, understanding their business processes and enabling us to mute -- move them to the future and capturing that cloud backlog.

我們以強勁的簽約增長結束了這一年，這真正體現了我們的混合雲價值主張以及我們為客戶提供的在職價值，即了解他們的工作負載、了解他們的業務流程並使我們能夠靜音——讓他們走向未來並捕獲該雲積壓。

In fact, cloud backlog is up over 5 points year-to-year as a percent of our total outsourcing backlog.

事實上，雲積壓在我們總外包積壓中的百分比同比增長超過 5 個百分點。

But as I said earlier, GTS business, we are going to manage this business for profit, for cash and for leveraging our incumbency to move our clients to the future and provide better client value and delight them through loyalty as they move forward.

但正如我之前所說，GTS 業務，我們將管理這項業務以獲取利潤、現金並利用我們的現有職權將我們的客戶帶入未來，並提供更好的客戶價值，並在他們前進的過程中通過忠誠度取悅他們。

And we are going to exit some low-value content business.

我們將退出一些低價值的內容業務。

So, for 2019, I would expect pretty similar performance in GTS overall on a top line, but in margin, we are going to expand margin that's in our expectations.

因此，對於 2019 年，我預計 GTS 的總體表現在頂線上非常相似，但在利潤率方面，我們將擴大我們預期的利潤率。

And you see that play out in the second half of '18, and we expect that to continue.

你會在 18 年下半年看到這種情況，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。

So all right, with that said, apologize for going a little bit long here.

所以好吧，話雖如此，抱歉在這裡耽誤了一點時間。

We wanted to get a lot in here, one, about the quarter; but two, about wrapping up the year and what it means for '19.

我們想在這裡獲得很多東西，一個，大約本季度；但是兩個，關於結束這一年以及它對 19 年的意義。

So a few comments to wrap-up.

總結幾點意見。

We're entering 2019 in a great position to help our clients, whether they're looking for innovation or productivity or both.

進入 2019 年，我們在幫助我們的客戶方面處於有利地位，無論他們是在尋求創新還是生產力，或兩者兼而有之。

We've got a solid base of business.

我們有堅實的業務基礎。

You see this in our software and services results with strategic imperatives now consistently at about half of our revenue and in operating leverage we're driving, and we expect that to continue.

您可以在我們的軟件和服務結果中看到這一點，戰略要求現在始終占我們收入的一半左右，在我們正在推動的運營槓桿中，我們預計這種情況會繼續下去。

This gives us confidence in our expectation of at least $13.90 of earnings per share for the year.

這使我們對今年每股收益至少為 13.90 美元的預期充滿信心。

You know, our hand will only get stronger with the addition of Red Hat, which positions us as the leader in hybrid, multi-cloud world.

您知道，隨著紅帽的加入，我們的手只會變得更強大，這使我們成為混合多雲世界的領導者。

So thanks for joining us today.

所以感謝您今天加入我們。

We look forward to continuing the dialogue over the course of the year.

我們期待在這一年中繼續進行對話。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

Okay.

好的。

Anne, let me turn it back to you to wrap-up the call.

安妮，讓我把它轉回給你結束通話。

Thank you for participating in today's call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

The conference has now ended.

會議現已結束。

You may now disconnect at this time.

您現在可以斷開連接。