International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now I will turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM. Ma'am, you may begin.

歡迎，感謝您的支持。（操作員說明）正在錄製今天的會議。如果您有異議，此時您可以斷開連接。現在我將會議轉交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy 女士。女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. This is Patricia Murphy, Vice President of Investor Relations for IBM, and I want to welcome you to our third quarter 2019 earnings presentation. I'm here with Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。我是 IBM 投資者關係副總裁 Patricia Murphy，歡迎大家觀看我們 2019 年第三季度的收益演示。我和 IBM 的高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jim Kavanaugh 一起來了。

We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

我們將在幾個小時內在 IBM 投資者網站上發布今天準備好的評論，明天這個時候將提供重播。

Some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本演示文稿中的某些評論可能被視為前瞻性的。這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素。有關這些因素的更多信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

Our presentation also includes non-GAAP measures to provide additional information to investors. For example, we present revenue growth at constant currency throughout the presentation. In addition, to provide a view consistent with our go-forward business, we'll focus on constant currency growth adjusting for our recently divested businesses for the impacted lines of total revenue, cloud and our geographic performance. We've provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation and in the 8-K submitted to the SEC.

我們的演示文稿還包括非 GAAP 措施，以向投資者提供額外信息。例如，我們在整個演示過程中以固定貨幣呈現收入增長。此外，為了提供與我們未來業務一致的觀點，我們將專注於針對我們最近剝離的業務的持續貨幣增長調整，以調整受影響的總收入、雲計算和我們的地理績效。我們在演示文稿末尾和提交給 SEC 的 8-K 中提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 措施的調節表。

I also want to remind you that IBM's revenue, profit and earnings per share reflect the impact of purchase accounting and other transaction-related adjustments associated with the acquisition of Red Hat. These adjustments and charges are primarily noncash.

我還想提醒您，IBM 的收入、利潤和每股收益反映了與收購 Red Hat 相關的採購會計和其他交易相關調整的影響。這些調整和費用主要是非現金的。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

因此，我會把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Patricia, and thanks to all of you for joining us. In the third quarter, we delivered $18 billion of revenue, $2.4 billion of operating net income and $2.68 of operating earnings per share. We continued our strong cash generation with $12.3 billion of free cash flow over the last year, which is 126% normalized free cash flow realization; and we reduced our debt balance by nearly $7 billion since the end of June, maintaining a strong balance sheet.

謝謝，Patricia，也感謝大家加入我們。第三季度，我們實現了 180 億美元的收入、24 億美元的營業淨收入和 2.68 美元的每股營業收益。去年，我們以 123 億美元的自由現金流繼續強勁的現金流，這是正常化自由現金流實現的 126%；自 6 月底以來，我們的債務餘額減少了近 70 億美元，保持了強勁的資產負債表。

This quarter, we continue to see good performance in the key high-value areas of data and AI, security, cloud and digital. We continue to bring new innovations to the market, launching our z15 mainframe and containerizing our software. And of course, we closed the acquisition of Red Hat where we've had a good first quarter, with Red Hat revenue growth accelerating to 20% on a normalized basis.

本季度，我們繼續看到數據和人工智能、安全、雲和數字等關鍵高價值領域的良好表現。我們繼續為市場帶來新的創新，推出我們的 z15 大型機並對我們的軟件進行容器化。當然，我們完成了對 Red Hat 的收購，我們在第一季度取得了不錯的成績，Red Hat 的收入增長在正常情況下加速至 20%。

Let me give you a little more color by segment. Cloud & Cognitive Software was up 8% this quarter led by growth in cognitive applications and cloud and data platforms, including the contribution from Red Hat.

讓我按部分給你多一點顏色。雲與認知軟件本季度增長了 8%，這主要得益於認知應用程序以及雲和數據平台的增長，其中包括紅帽的貢獻。

In Global Business Services, revenue was up over 2%, and we expanded gross margin. Once again, we had solid performance in consulting driven by next-generation application offerings and in application modernization for the cloud.

在全球商業服務方面，收入增長超過 2%，我們擴大了毛利率。我們在下一代應用程序產品驅動的諮詢和雲應用程序現代化方面再次表現出色。

In Global Technology Services, revenue was down 4%. We continue to have good growth in the services that help our clients to move and manage cloud workloads, and our cloud revenue in the segment was up 10%. But our GTS performance fell short of our expectations due to lower in-period revenue from client business volumes in certain markets. While the volume impact has near-term revenue and profit implications, we had good long-term signings and a solid pipeline of deals that deliver productivity to clients in this environment.

在全球技術服務方面，收入下降了 4%。我們在幫助客戶移動和管理雲工作負載的服務方面繼續保持良好增長，我們在該領域的雲收入增長了 10%。但由於某些市場客戶業務量的期內收入下降，我們的 GTS 業績未達到我們的預期。雖然數量影響對近期收入和利潤有影響，但我們有良好的長期簽約和穩固的交易渠道，可以在這種環境下為客戶提供生產力。

Our Systems revenue was down 14% primarily reflecting the back end of our z14 mainframe product cycle. We continue to invest to bring new innovation to our platforms, and we announced our next-generation of IBM Z, which started to ship the last week of the quarter. Our new z15 has a strong value proposition, and we had a solid start to the cycle in line with our expectations. And so IBM's performance continues to be led by areas that help our clients with their digital transformations and journeys to cloud.

我們的系統收入下降了 14%，主要反映了我們的 z14 大型機產品週期的後端。我們繼續投資為我們的平台帶來新的創新，我們宣布了我們的下一代 IBM Z，它在本季度的最後一周開始發貨。我們的新 z15 具有強大的價值主張，我們的周期開局良好，符合我們的預期。因此，IBM 的業績繼續由幫助我們的客戶進行數字化轉型和雲之旅的領域引領。

Across our segments, our cloud revenue growth accelerated to 14%, and IBM's cloud revenue over the last year is now over $20 billion. We're entering the next chapter of cloud, which will be driven by mission-critical workloads. Enterprise clients will need to securely deploy, run and manage these workloads across on-prem, private and public cloud environments. These hybrid multi-cloud environments will be based on a foundation of Linux with containers and Kubernetes.

在我們的各個細分市場中，我們的雲收入增長加速至 14%，而 IBM 去年的雲收入現已超過 200 億美元。我們正在進入雲的下一章，這將由任務關鍵型工作負載驅動。企業客戶需要在本地、私有和公共雲環境中安全地部署、運行和管理這些工作負載。這些混合多雲環境將基於 Linux 與容器和 Kubernetes 的基礎。

Red Hat is at the center of this with the #1 Linux operating system, RHEL, and the leading hybrid cloud platform, OpenShift. When we bring these together with IBM's enterprise incumbency, scale and expertise, we're ideally positioned to lead in the significant hybrid cloud opportunity. We've invested to bring new innovations to market, leveraging the technology architecture of Linux, containers and Kubernetes. We have standardized on Red Hat OpenShift as our hybrid cloud platform, and we've modernized our software portfolio so that it can run on all private and public clouds. We've announced OpenShift on IBM Cloud and on IBM Z, and we've introduced consulting and technology services for Red Hat to capitalize on our expertise in digital reinventions and our leadership position in managing mission-critical workloads.

Red Hat 憑藉排名第一的 Linux 操作系統 RHEL 和領先的混合雲平台 OpenShift 處於這個中心。當我們將這些與 IBM 的企業現有能力、規模和專業知識結合在一起時，我們處於領先地位，可以引領重要的混合雲機遇。我們已投資將新的創新推向市場，利用 Linux、容器和 Kubernetes 的技術架構。我們已將 Red Hat OpenShift 標準化為我們的混合雲平台，並對我們的軟件產品組合進行了現代化改造，使其可以在所有私有云和公共雲上運行。我們在 IBM Cloud 和 IBM Z 上發布了 OpenShift，並為 Red Hat 引入了諮詢和技術服務，以利用我們在數字化重塑方面的專業知識和我們在管理任務關鍵型工作負載方面的領先地位。

And now at the end of the third quarter, we're off to a great start. As I said, Red Hat revenue in the quarter was up 20%. That's normalized to provide a better comparability to Red Hat's historical performance. But remember, IBM's reported results also include the deferred revenue purchase accounting adjustment, which, by the way, was within $30 million of the third quarter estimates we provided in early August.

現在在第三季度末，我們有了一個良好的開端。正如我所說，紅帽本季度的收入增長了 20%。這是為了更好地與 Red Hat 的歷史表現進行比較。但請記住，IBM 報告的結果還包括遞延收入購買會計調整，順便說一下，這與我們在 8 月初提供的第三季度估計值相差不到 3000 萬美元。

The 20% growth is an acceleration from Red Hat's performance before we announced the transaction. This quarter, Red Hat's infrastructure business, which is predominantly RHEL, had double-digit growth and continued to take share. This is a great proof point of the continued importance of Linux as the foundation for enterprise workloads in a hybrid cloud environment. And momentum continued in application development and emerging technologies driven by both OpenShift and Ansible. We're adding new OpenShift clients and expanding Red Hat adoption in existing clients.

20% 的增長是我們宣布交易之前 Red Hat 業績的加速增長。本季度，以 RHEL 為主的紅帽基礎設施業務實現了兩位數的增長，並繼續佔據份額。這很好地證明了 Linux 作為混合雲環境中企業工作負載基礎的持續重要性。在 OpenShift 和 Ansible 的推動下，應用程序開發和新興技術的發展勢頭仍在繼續。我們正在添加新的 OpenShift 客戶端並擴大現有客戶端對 Red Hat 的採用。

For example, in the third quarter, IBM helped Red Hat expand its footprint at Visa in support of the client strategy of accelerating technology platform innovation using open source solutions. And Spanish retailer, El Corte Ingles, selected Red Hat OpenShift as the foundational technology together with IBM's migration and implementation services for its hybrid cloud strategy.

例如，在第三季度，IBM 幫助 Red Hat 擴大了其在 Visa 的足跡，以支持客戶使用開源解決方案加速技術平台創新的戰略。西班牙零售商 El Corte Ingles 選擇紅帽 OpenShift 作為其混合雲戰略的基礎技術以及 IBM 的遷移和實施服務。

The expansion of the client base and the revenue trajectory are good indications of our clients' confidence in the value of Red Hat and IBM together. And in terms of confidence of the workforce, over the last several months, Red Hat hired about 1,000 new associates to address the growing demand for the Red Hat portfolio and hybrid cloud value proposition, while employee attrition has been stable year to year.

客戶群的擴大和收入軌跡很好地表明了我們的客戶對 Red Hat 和 IBM 共同價值的信心。在員工信心方面，在過去幾個月裡，紅帽僱傭了大約 1,000 名新員工，以滿足對紅帽產品組合和混合雲價值主張不斷增長的需求，而員工流失率逐年穩定。

So let me turn to IBM's key financial metrics, which of course include Red Hat. As we discussed in the past, IBM's revenue, profit and operating earnings per share reflect the impact of the noncash deferred revenue purchase accounting adjustment, along with other transaction-related activity. Our operating gross margin was flat, though up 30 basis points when you exclude the impact from the divested businesses. You'll recall, we took a workforce rebalancing charge in the second quarter to address the foregone profit of these businesses and some stranded costs. We'll start to see more of the savings in the fourth quarter.

因此，讓我轉向 IBM 的關鍵財務指標，其中當然包括 Red Hat。正如我們過去討論的那樣，IBM 的收入、利潤和每股營業收入反映了非現金遞延收入購買會計調整以及其他交易相關活動的影響。我們的營業毛利率持平，但如果排除剝離業務的影響則上升了 30 個基點。你會記得，我們在第二季度收取了勞動力再平衡費用，以解決這些企業放棄的利潤和一些擱淺的成本。我們將在第四季度開始看到更多的節省。

Our pretax income also reflects growth in expense. This operating expense increase was driven by the addition of Red Hat, both operational spending and transaction-related costs for equity, retention and higher interest expense. At the same time, our base spending reflects investments to bring our Software and Systems innovations to the market, and we had a lower level of IP income.

我們的稅前收入也反映了費用的增長。運營支出的增加是由紅帽的加入推動的，包括運營支出和與股權、保留和更高利息支出相關的交易成本。與此同時，我們的基本支出反映了將我們的軟件和系統創新推向市場的投資，我們的 IP 收入水平較低。

Our operating tax rate in the quarter was a few points less than we estimated in early August due to the timing of discrete tax items. We continue to expect a full year all-in operating tax rate of 9% to 10%, which includes Red Hat and an estimate of discrete tax items for the year. And so the year-to-year decline in operating net income and operating earnings per share was driven predominantly by the noncash purchase accounting adjustments.

由於離散稅項的時間安排，我們本季度的營業稅率比我們在 8 月初的估計低幾個百分點。我們繼續預計全年總營業稅率為 9% 至 10%，其中包括 Red Hat 和年度離散稅項的估計。因此，營業淨收入和每股營業收入的同比下降主要是由非現金采購會計調整造成的。

But more importantly, our cash metrics are not affected by these adjustments. We generated $1.8 billion of free cash flow in the quarter and nearly $6 billion year-to-date. Because our cash generation is so heavily skewed to the fourth quarter, as always, the trailing 12 months is the best way to look at our free cash flow performance. On that basis, we generated $12.3 billion, which results in 126% normalized free cash flow realization. Our strong cash generation and focus on capital allocation resulted in a stronger balance sheet, ending the quarter with a cash balance of about $11 billion and significantly lower debt levels versus 90 days ago.

但更重要的是，我們的現金指標不受這些調整的影響。我們在本季度產生了 18 億美元的自由現金流，今年迄今產生了近 60 億美元。因為我們的現金產生嚴重偏向第四季度，一如既往，過去 12 個月是查看我們自由現金流表現的最佳方式。在此基礎上，我們產生了 123 億美元，實現了 126% 的標準化自由現金流。我們強勁的現金生成和對資本配置的關注導致資產負債表更加強勁，本季度結束時現金餘額約為 110 億美元，債務水平與 90 天前相比顯著降低。

So let me comment on how we've improved our debt profile this quarter. As you know, we took out additional debt to fund the Red Hat transaction, and at the end of June, we had $73 billion in debt. This includes what I'll call core debt of $48 billion and $25 billion for our financing business, which is fully supported by our financing receivables.

因此，讓我評論一下本季度我們如何改善我們的債務狀況。如您所知，我們舉債為 Red Hat 交易提供資金，截至 6 月底，我們的債務為 730 億美元。這包括我稱之為 480 億美元的核心債務和我們融資業務的 250 億美元，這完全由我們的融資應收賬款支持。

Looking at our global financing debt, we're winding down our OEM commercial financing operations by the end of this year. This reduces our financing debt and improves the overall credit quality of our receivables. To accelerate reduction of our core debt, we suspended our share repurchase program. We did this in early July when we closed the Red Hat transaction. The result of these actions is a reduction in IBM's total debt from $73 billion to $66 billion during the quarter. That's nearly $7 billion. And so I'd say our deleveraging plan is on track. As we look forward, our debt repayment profile provides good opportunity to continue to deleverage. And as we said, we're committed to achieving a leverage ratio consistent with a mid- to high A rating within a couple years.

看看我們的全球融資債務，我們將在今年年底前結束我們的 OEM 商業融資業務。這減少了我們的融資債務並提高了我們應收賬款的整體信用質量。為加速削減我們的核心債務，我們暫停了股票回購計劃。我們在 7 月初完成與 Red Hat 的交易時就這樣做了。這些行動的結果是本季度 IBM 的總債務從 730 億美元減少到 660 億美元。這將近 70 億美元。所以我想說我們的去槓桿化計劃正在按計劃進行。展望未來，我們的債務償還狀況為繼續去槓桿化提供了良機。正如我們所說，我們致力於在幾年內實現與中高 A 評級一致的槓桿率。

So now I'll get into the segment results starting with Cloud & Cognitive Software, which was up 8% this quarter. We had strong growth in both cloud and data platforms now inclusive of Red Hat and cognitive applications, while transaction processing platforms revenue was down. Cloud revenue in the segment was up over 60% this quarter, reflecting the investments and steps we've taken to capture the hybrid cloud opportunity.

所以現在我將從雲和認知軟件開始進入細分市場結果，本季度增長了 8%。我們在雲和數據平台方面都有強勁增長，現在包括 Red Hat 和認知應用程序，而交易處理平台收入卻下降了。本季度該部門的雲收入增長了 60% 以上，反映了我們為抓住混合雲機會而採取的投資和措施。

In cloud and data platforms, we delivered double-digit growth as we execute on the combined IBM and Red Hat hybrid cloud strategy. I mentioned earlier the importance of Linux, containers and Kubernetes as the platform for hybrid cloud standardizing on Red Hat OpenShift. We've containerized our software and introduced Cloud Paks containerized software solutions that incorporate OpenShift and RHEL. We're rearchitecting and optimizing our offerings, including integrating technologies from IBM Cloud Private into our Cloud Paks and into OpenShift. And now just about 90 days following the closing of the acquisition, Red Hat demonstrated strong and broad-based revenue growth this quarter. And although early, we're seeing green shoots in our newly launched Cloud Paks. We're working with over 1,800 clients with access to our container solutions, including OpenShift and Cloud Paks.

在雲和數據平台方面，我們執行了 IBM 和 Red Hat 的混合雲戰略，實現了兩位數的增長。我之前提到過 Linux、容器和 Kubernetes 作為基於 Red Hat OpenShift 的混合雲標準化平台的重要性。我們已經將我們的軟件容器化，並推出了 Cloud Paks 容器化軟件解決方案，其中包含 OpenShift 和 RHEL。我們正在重新設計和優化我們的產品，包括將來自 IBM Cloud Private 的技術集成到我們的 Cloud Paks 和 OpenShift 中。現在，在收購完成後僅約 90 天，紅帽在本季度展示了強勁而廣泛的收入增長。雖然還早，但我們在新推出的 Cloud Paks 中看到了萌芽。我們正在與 1,800 多家客戶合作，他們可以訪問我們的容器解決方案，包括 OpenShift 和 Cloud Paks。

For example, CVS Health has selected multiple Cloud Pak offerings, including the Cloud Pak for Integration in support of their hybrid cloud initiatives for agile data services and improved consumer experiences. These offerings will combine the power of IBM Software with OpenShift and RHEL. Cognitive applications revenue growth of 6% was led by security software in services and industry verticals like IoT.

例如，CVS Health 選擇了多個 Cloud Pak 產品，包括 Cloud Pak for Integration 以支持他們的混合雲計劃，以實現敏捷數據服務和改善消費者體驗。這些產品將結合 IBM 軟件與 OpenShift 和 RHEL 的強大功能。認知應用收入增長 6% 是由服務和垂直行業（如物聯網）中的安全軟件帶動的。

In security, we were just recognized again by Gartner as the #1 enterprise security vendor. We continue to see strong performance in our threat management software and services offerings like QRadar and X-Force Threat Management. We recently announced a project working with the city of Los Angeles and the LA Cyber Lab to provide threat intelligence to local businesses to proactively fight cybercrime leveraging X-Force incident response and intelligent services. And as clients are increasingly looking to migrate secure operations to the cloud, we're seeing traction with the combination of QRadar on the cloud and X-Force Threat Management for managed threat monitoring services on the cloud.

在安全方面，我們剛剛再次被 Gartner 評為排名第一的企業安全供應商。我們繼續看到 QRadar 和 X-Force 威脅管理等威脅管理軟件和服務產品的強勁表現。我們最近宣布了一個與洛杉磯市和洛杉磯網絡實驗室合作的項目，為當地企業提供威脅情報，以利用 X-Force 事件響應和智能服務主動打擊網絡犯罪。隨著客戶越來越多地希望將安全操作遷移到雲端，我們看到了將雲端 QRadar 與 X-Force 威脅管理相結合以在雲端託管威脅監控服務的吸引力。

In IoT, we had traction across the portfolio, including in our Maximo and TRIRIGA offerings. We continue to invest in new offerings, and our industry-specific solutions like Maximo for Transportation, Maximo for Oil and Gas, and Maximo for Aviation have been resonating with clients. And then in our transaction processing platforms, which include software that runs mission-critical workloads on our hardware platforms, revenue declined this quarter. While much of this revenue is annuity based, in any quarter, the performance reflects the timing of larger transactions that are tied to client buying cycles. Looking at the profit for the segment, the decline in pretax margin was primarily driven by the purchase accounting impacts from the Red Hat acquisition.

在 IoT 中，我們在整個產品組合中都有吸引力，包括我們的 Maximo 和 TRIRIGA 產品。我們繼續投資於新產品，我們的行業特定解決方案，如 Maximo for Transportation、Maximo for Oil and Gas 和 Maximo for Aviation 一直在客戶中引起共鳴。然後在我們的交易處理平台中，包括在我們的硬件平台上運行關鍵任務工作負載的軟件，本季度的收入有所下降。雖然大部分收入是基於年金的，但在任何一個季度，業績都反映了與客戶購買週期相關的較大交易的時間。從該部門的利潤來看，稅前利潤率的下降主要是由於紅帽收購對採購會計的影響。

Moving to Global Business Services, revenue was up over 2%, and gross margin expanded by 110 basis points. Consulting revenue grew 5%, driven by offerings that address cognitive technology, application modernization and next-generation enterprise applications such S/4HANA and Salesforce.

轉向全球商業服務，收入增長超過 2%，毛利率增長 110 個基點。在解決認知技術、應用程序現代化和下一代企業應用程序（如 S/4HANA 和 Salesforce）的產品的推動下，諮詢收入增長了 5%。

Application management was flat. We had growth in our strategic areas of application modernization such as cloud application management and application development on emerging platforms offset by declines in traditional enterprise application management.

應用程序管理是扁平的。我們在應用程序現代化戰略領域的增長，如雲應用程序管理和新興平台上的應用程序開發，被傳統企業應用程序管理的下滑所抵消。

GBS brings together deep industry expertise and technology to provide clients with a holistic approach to derisk and orchestrate their digital transformation journeys. Our cloud application offerings help clients to implement cloud-centric architectures to modernize and automate their application portfolio. This is where we're seeing some early progress in synergies with Red Hat as we standardize on OpenShift as our preferred development platform. This quarter, we signed over 20 deals across industries ranging from telecommunications to banking and financial services to travel and transportation to retail, which utilize Red Hat capabilities to modernize their application portfolio. GBS also works with enterprises to leverage cognitive technologies to drive insights and process improvements as they evolve from isolated use cases to deploying AI at scale. We have good traction here with double-digit growth this quarter in our process reengineering and business decision support practices.

GBS 匯集了深厚的行業專業知識和技術，為客戶提供一種整體方法來降低風險並協調他們的數字化轉型之旅。我們的雲應用程序產品可幫助客戶實施以雲為中心的架構，以實現其應用程序組合的現代化和自動化。在我們將 OpenShift 標準化為我們的首選開發平台時，我們看到了與 Red Hat 協同作用的一些早期進展。本季度，我們簽署了 20 多項交易，涉及從電信到銀行和金融服務到旅遊和運輸再到零售等多個行業，這些交易利用紅帽的功能來實現其應用程序組合的現代化。GBS 還與企業合作，利用認知技術推動洞察力和流程改進，因為它們從孤立的用例發展到大規模部署 AI。本季度，我們在流程再造和業務決策支持實踐方面取得了兩位數的增長，因此我們在這方面具有良好的吸引力。

Turning to gross profit. GBS gross margin was 31%. The 110 basis point margin expansion was driven by continued mix shift to higher value offerings, yields on our delivery improvement, productivity and utilization initiatives, and currency benefit from leveraging our global delivery resource footprint.

轉向毛利。GBS 毛利率為 31%。110 個基點的利潤率增長是由持續的組合轉向更高價值的產品、我們交付改進的收益、生產力和利用率計劃以及利用我們的全球交付資源足跡帶來的貨幣收益推動的。

In Global Technology Services, total revenue declined 4%. Last quarter, I mentioned that based on the backlog runout, we saw an inflection point in the year-to-year revenue in the second half. This was based on an improving trajectory in the runout projections over the subsequent quarters.

在全球技術服務中，總收入下降了 4%。上個季度，我提到根據積壓訂單，我們在下半年看到了同比收入的拐點。這是基於隨後幾個季度的跳動預測的改善軌跡。

Revenue from backlog represents about 90% of next quarter's revenue and 85% 2 quarters out, so it is typically a good indicator of the total revenue performance. In the third quarter, the in-quarter revenue did not come in as expected. We had lower customer business volumes in certain markets and some multinational clients versus our expectations. And this impacted the growth rate by an additional point. Because this work leverages existing resources, it has a higher margin profile, and so these lower volumes impacted our gross margin, which was down about 1 point from the prior year. We have a supplemental chart that describes the revenue dynamics in more detail.

來自積壓訂單的收入約佔下一季度收入的 90% 和 2 個季度後的 85%，因此它通常是總收入表現的良好指標。第三季度，季內收入沒有達到預期。我們在某些市場和一些跨國客戶的客戶業務量低於我們的預期。這對增長率產生了額外的影響。由於這項工作利用了現有資源，它具有更高的利潤率，因此這些較低的數量影響了我們的毛利率，比上一年下降了約 1 個百分點。我們有一個補充圖表，更詳細地描述了收入動態。

But now taking a broader perspective, we had good overall signings. Our GTS signings were up 20% this quarter, and signings are also up over the last 12 months. This results in a 1 point sequential improvement in the GTS year-to-year backlog performance. The signings growth is driven by cloud. Our cloud signings were up over 60%, and cloud now comprises over 40% of the GTS outsourcing backlog. This is up from just over 25% as we exited 2017.

但現在從更廣闊的角度來看，我們有很好的整體簽約。本季度我們的 GTS 簽約人數增加了 20%，過去 12 個月的簽約人數也有所增加。這導致 GTS 年度積壓績效連續提高 1 個百分點。簽約增長是由雲驅動的。我們的雲簽約增長超過 60%，雲現在佔 GTS 外包積壓的 40% 以上。這比我們 2017 年結束時略高於 25% 有所上升。

Enterprises are in the early phases of their journeys to modernize their infrastructures to deliver savings, productivity and innovation. We are ideally positioned to move our clients to the cloud and derisk the journey for them. We've been shifting our portfolio to capture this opportunity, investing in our cloud capabilities while deemphasizing and exiting certain lower-value content. We have realigned our offerings across our clients' cloud life cycle journey of advice, move, build and manage. We've been infusing our offerings with IP and now leveraging Red Hat's capabilities. IBM services is taking an integrated approach to application modernization for the hybrid cloud.

企業正處於基礎設施現代化之旅的早期階段，以實現節約、生產力和創新。我們處於理想的位置，可以將我們的客戶轉移到雲端並為他們降低旅程的風險。我們一直在改變我們的產品組合以抓住這個機會，投資於我們的雲功能，同時淡化和退出某些低價值內容。我們在客戶的建議、遷移、構建和管理的雲生命週期旅程中重新調整了我們的產品。我們一直在為我們的產品注入 IP，現在利用 Red Hat 的功能。IBM 服務正在採用集成方法實現混合雲的應用程序現代化。

At the same time, we have continued to expand our cloud availability zones and data centers. And in the coming weeks, you'll hear more from us on how companies from across some of the most highly regulated industries are turning to IBM's public cloud as their preferred destination for mission-critical workloads.

同時，我們繼續擴展我們的雲可用性區域和數據中心。在接下來的幾週內，您將從我們那裡聽到更多關於來自一些監管最嚴格的行業的公司如何轉向 IBM 的公共云作為關鍵任務工作負載的首選目的地的信息。

The IBM Cloud offers these clients the highest level of security, leading data protection and the best infrastructure to run Red Hat OpenShift and enterprise-grade workloads. And so we're going to continue to deliver solid growth in cloud, and this will drive performance over the longer term. But in the short term, given the dynamics around the lower client consumption, we're going to manage for margin, profit and cash. We're continuing to deemphasize low-margin offerings and contracts. We'll get more benefit from the workforce actions we took in the second quarter. We are scaling our agile services delivery model and accelerating our use of AI and automation in our delivery operations. And finally, in the near term, we're going to aggressively manage our variable spending while, of course, continuing to invest in cloud capabilities.

IBM Cloud 為這些客戶提供了最高級別的安全性、領先的數據保護和運行 Red Hat OpenShift 和企業級工作負載的最佳基礎架構。因此，我們將繼續在雲領域實現穩健增長，這將推動長期業績。但在短期內，鑑於客戶消費下降的動態，我們將管理利潤、利潤和現金。我們將繼續淡化低利潤產品和合同。我們將從第二季度採取的勞動力行動中獲益更多。我們正在擴展我們的敏捷服務交付模型，並加速我們在交付操作中使用人工智能和自動化。最後，在短期內，我們將積極管理我們的可變支出，同時當然會繼續投資於雲功能。

So now turning to Systems. Revenue was down this quarter, reflecting the back end of our product cycles. Let me walk through the dynamics across the portfolio.

所以現在轉向系統。本季度收入下降，反映了我們產品週期的後端。讓我來了解整個投資組合的動態。

In the third quarter, IBM Z revenue was down 20%. This is compared to good growth we had in the third quarter of last year. The mainframe is an enduring platform. And in September, we announced our newest and most advanced mainframe, z15. As I said, we had a solid start to the cycle based on shipments in the last week of the quarter. Building on the momentum from the advanced security of z14, the new z15 capabilities extend the platform's differentiation. Encryption everywhere is the industry's first commercial data privacy and security enforcement solution, including data privacy passports, which allow for remote access management. z15 also supports private and public clouds via Linux, Kubernetes and industry-standard tools. With the introduction of Red Hat OpenShift support, this new mainframe will support cloud-native development within enterprises. And instant recovery significantly reduces the impact of planned and unplanned downtime, enabling enterprises to get back to work more quickly. Putting all of this together, we're offering clients improved productivity, security and efficiency with z15.

第三季度，IBM Z 收入下降了 20%。這與我們去年第三季度的良好增長形成了鮮明對比。大型機是一個持久的平台。9 月，我們發布了最新、最先進的大型機 z15。正如我所說，基於本季度最後一周的出貨量，我們的周期開局良好。以 z14 的高級安全性為基礎，新的 z15 功能擴展了平台的差異化。Encryption everywhere 是業界首個商業數據隱私和安全實施解決方案，包括允許遠程訪問管理的數據隱私護照。z15 還通過 Linux、Kubernetes 和行業標準工具支持私有云和公共雲。隨著對 Red Hat OpenShift 支持的引入，這款新的大型機將支持企業內部的雲原生開發。即時恢復顯著降低了計劃內和計劃外停機的影響，使企業能夠更快地恢復工作。綜上所述，我們通過 z15 為客戶提供更高的生產力、安全性和效率。

Power revenue was down 27% this quarter. I'll remind you, in the third quarter of last year, we had the best Power performance in some time due to the introduction of mid-range and high-end POWER9 and the rollout of our supercomputers for the U.S. Department of Energy labs in the second half of 2018. Power continues to offer clients the performance, resiliency and security capabilities of POWER9 to optimize enterprise workflows.

本季度電力收入下降了 27%。我會提醒您，去年第三季度，由於中端和高端 POWER9 的推出以及我們為美國能源部實驗室在2018年下半年。Power 繼續為客戶提供 POWER9 的性能、彈性和安全功能，以優化企業工作流程。

In Storage, revenue was down 4%. This is an improvement in the year-to-year performance compared to recent quarters driven by our high end and growth in all-flash array. We're focused on continued innovation in Storage, and we announced the next-generation high-end system, DS8900, together with the mainframe in mid-September.

在存儲方面，收入下降了 4%。與我們的高端和全閃存陣列的增長推動的最近幾個季度相比，這是同比業績的改善。我們專注於存儲領域的持續創新，並於 9 月中旬發布了下一代高端系統 DS8900 以及大型機。

Looking at Systems profit. Pretax profit margin was down, reflecting mix headwinds and the investments we're making to bring new hardware innovation to market.

查看系統利潤。稅前利潤率下降，反映了混合逆風和我們為將新硬件創新推向市場所做的投資。

Turning to cash flow and balance sheet. As I said, we've now generated $12.3 billion of free cash flow over the last 12 months. In the third quarter, we generated $2.5 billion of cash from operations, excluding our financing receivables and $1.8 billion of free cash flow. That brings our year-to-date free cash flow to $5.9 billion, which is up about $500 million year-to-year. These results reflect our operational performance, effective capital management and some of the expected headwinds we mentioned at the beginning of the year.

轉向現金流和資產負債表。正如我所說，我們現在在過去 12 個月中產生了 123 億美元的自由現金流。第三季度，我們從運營中產生了 25 億美元的現金，其中不包括我們的融資應收賬款和 18 億美元的自由現金流。這使我們年初至今的自由現金流達到 59 億美元，同比增長約 5 億美元。這些結果反映了我們的運營績效、有效的資本管理以及我們在年初提到的一些預期逆風。

On capital expenditures, our strategy to deemphasize lower-value content across our services and financing portfolios contributed to our CapEx decline. Year-to-date CapEx also reflects the benefit from real estate sales in the second quarter.

在資本支出方面，我們在服務和融資組合中不再強調低價值內容的戰略導致我們的資本支出下降。年初至今的資本支出也反映了第二季度房地產銷售帶來的好處。

You'll recall, at the beginning of the year, we said we expected a headwind on cash taxes. We saw some of that materialize in the third quarter and expect an additional headwind in the fourth as well. Also reflected in our performance is the impact from the software and services divestitures. I'll remind you that the proceeds from the divestitures are considered an investing activity so are not included in our free cash flow.

你會記得，在今年年初，我們說過我們預計現金稅會出現逆風。我們看到其中一些在第三季度實現，並預計第四季度也會出現額外的逆風。軟件和服務資產剝離的影響也反映在我們的業績中。我會提醒您，資產剝離的收益被視為投資活動，因此不包括在我們的自由現金流中。

Finally, Red Hat had strong operational free cash flow performance, which was offset by incremental interest expense and some retention payments. As we have said, we expect Red Hat to be free cash flow accretive within 12 months of closing.

最後，紅帽擁有強勁的運營自由現金流表現，但被增量利息支出和一些留存金所抵消。正如我們所說，我們預計 Red Hat 將在關閉後的 12 個月內增加自由現金流。

Looking at the uses of cash, over the last 3 quarters, we returned $5.6 billion to our shareholders, including $4.3 billion in dividends and $1.4 billion of gross share repurchases. As we've previously disclosed, we suspended our share repurchase program when we closed the Red Hat transaction.

從現金使用情況來看，在過去三個季度，我們向股東返還了 56 億美元，其中包括 43 億美元的股息和 14 億美元的股票回購總額。正如我們之前披露的那樣，我們在完成與 Red Hat 的交易後暫停了我們的股票回購計劃。

And then recapping the balance sheet highlights, we ended the quarter with $11 billion in cash, which is down from $46 billion in the second quarter with approximately $34 billion used to close the Red Hat transaction. As I mentioned earlier, total debt was down nearly $7 billion from the previous quarter.

然後回顧一下資產負債表的亮點，我們在本季度結束時擁有 110 億美元現金，低於第二季度的 460 億美元，其中約 340 億美元用於完成 Red Hat 交易。正如我之前提到的，總債務比上一季度減少了近 70 億美元。

So to sum up the cash and balance sheet dynamics, we continue to generate strong free cash flow. And together with the portfolio actions we've taken and the suspension of share repurchases, we're positioned to return to our targeted leverage ratios within a couple of years. In the meantime, our balance sheet is strong with the flexibility to support our business.

因此，總結現金和資產負債表動態，我們繼續產生強勁的自由現金流。加上我們採取的投資組合行動和暫停股票回購，我們有能力在幾年內恢復到我們的目標槓桿率。與此同時，我們的資產負債表穩健，可以靈活地支持我們的業務。

So I'll make a few summary comments on the quarter and the year before we move on to Q&A. During our investor webcast back in August, we shared our strategy and differentiation to address the hybrid cloud opportunity. We have been building a strong foundation, and now with Red Hat, we're even better positioned to win in chapter 2 of our clients' digital reinventions.

因此，在我們進行問答之前，我將對本季度和這一年做一些總結性評論。在我們 8 月份的投資者網絡廣播中，我們分享了我們的戰略和差異化以應對混合雲機遇。我們一直在建立堅實的基礎，現在有了紅帽，我們更有能力在客戶數字化重塑的第 2 章中取勝。

In the third quarter, you saw IBM and Red Hat are off to a great start, and across IBM, our cloud revenue growth accelerated. From a segment perspective, we had good growth in Cloud & Cognitive Software and in Global Business Services. In Systems, we had a solid start to our z15, which shipped at the end of the quarter, and we announced a new high-end storage. Global Technology Services also had strong cloud results but overall performance was weaker. I described the dynamics, and in the short term, we're going to manage this business for margin and cash.

在第三季度，您看到 IBM 和 Red Hat 開局良好，在整個 IBM，我們的雲收入增長加速。從細分市場的角度來看，我們在雲和認知軟件以及全球商業服務方面取得了良好的增長。在系統方面，我們的 z15 開局良好，在本季度末發貨，我們還宣布了一款新的高端存儲產品。全球技術服務也有強勁的雲結果，但整體表現較弱。我描述了動態，在短期內，我們將管理這項業務以獲取利潤和現金。

Outside of the impact from the divested businesses, our gross margin expanded, reflecting operating leverage, which is an important element of our model. And our expense reflects a higher level of investment as we continue to bring new innovations to market. And so as we move into the fourth quarter, this is seasonally our biggest transaction quarter. It will be the first full quarter of availability for our z15, and we are expecting a normal IBM Z cycle. And we're assuming we have solid software transactional execution, and of course, we're still facing a strengthening dollar. With all of this and a steady economic environment, we continue to expect to deliver at least $12.80 of operating earnings per share and free cash flow of $12 billion for the year. This is consistent with the view we provided on August 2 when we updated our view of the full year for the acquisition of Red Hat.

除了剝離業務的影響外，我們的毛利率有所擴大，反映了經營槓桿，這是我們模型的一個重要元素。隨著我們繼續將新的創新推向市場，我們的支出反映了更高水平的投資。因此，當我們進入第四季度時，這是我們最大的季節性交易季度。這將是我們 z15 的第一個完整季度可用性，我們期待正常的 IBM Z 週期。我們假設我們有可靠的軟件交易執行，當然，我們仍然面臨美元走強。鑑於所有這一切以及穩定的經濟環境，我們繼續預計今年的每股營業收入至少為 12.80 美元，自由現金流為 120 億美元。這與我們在 8 月 2 日更新我們對收購 Red Hat 的全年觀點時提供的觀點一致。

And with that, we'll take your questions.

有了這個，我們會回答你的問題。

Thank you, Jim. Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a few items. First, I'll remind you, the year-to-year growth rates we're providing today for Red Hat are normalized to provide comparability to Red Hat's historical performance. Second, we have supplemental charts at the end of the slide deck that provide additional information on the quarter. This includes the GTS revenue dynamics chart Jim mentioned a few minutes ago. (Operator Instructions) So operator, let's please open it up for questions.

謝謝你，吉姆。在我們開始問答之前，我想提幾個問題。首先，我要提醒您，我們今天為 Red Hat 提供的同比增長率是標準化的，以便與 Red Hat 的歷史表現進行比較。其次，我們在幻燈片末尾有補充圖表，提供有關本季度的更多信息。這包括 Jim 幾分鐘前提到的 GTS 收入動態圖表。（運營商說明）所以運營商，讓我們打開它提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Jim, thanks for the incremental color on the drivers of the GTS shortfall in the supplementals. What do you think is the root cause of the lower volumes in the quarter? Do you think that's a macro pause? And if you fast-forward to 2020, do the backlog runoff support flat to up GTS revenue? Or are we exiting too weak in 2019 to call for that right now? And if I could, on the GTS margin front, how much of this -- I think you alluded to the lower volumes being mainly the issue, but was pricing also an issue in the quarter on GTS margins?

吉姆，感謝補充劑中 GTS 不足的驅動程序的增量顏色。您認為本季度銷量下降的根本原因是什麼？你認為那是宏觀暫停嗎？如果你快進到 2020 年，積壓的徑流支持是否會增加 GTS 收入？還是我們在 2019 年退出時太弱了，現在還不能呼籲這樣做？如果可以的話，在 GTS 利潤率方面，其中有多少 - 我認為你提到的主要問題是銷量下降，但定價也是本季度 GTS 利潤率的一個問題嗎？

Okay. Thanks, Wamsi. Appreciate the question. So let me start with the last part of that multiple-part question because, as I stated in the prepared remarks, when you look at a GTS business profile, as you know, high-value, high-annuity content business. And when we're looking in-quarter, about 90-plus percent of our revenue in-quarter comes out of that backlog. Now you also have a labor-based structure that's relatively fixed in a short period of time in 90 days. And what you saw happened, and hopefully, you have taken a look at the supplemental chart, again for enhanced transparency for all of you so you can understand the dynamics of what's happened to our business, when that in-period revenue, that remaining 10% falls away, it has tremendous de-operating impacts from a leverage perspective overall. So that is high value, high profit, and when it hurts you at the latter part of the month, it definitely falls to the bottom line. So I'm sure we'll get into it. We're taking a lot of actions structurally. We got out ahead of that in the second quarter, and we're well positioned to return back to margins in GTS, as I stated, in the fourth quarter.

好的。謝謝，瓦姆西。感謝這個問題。因此，讓我從這個由多個部分組成的問題的最後一部分開始，因為正如我在準備好的評論中所說，當您查看 GTS 業務概況時，如您所知，高價值、高年金的內容業務。當我們查看季度時，我們季度收入的 90% 以上來自積壓訂單。現在你也有一個基於勞動力的結構，在 90 天的短時間內相對固定。你所看到的發生了，希望你已經看過補充圖表，再次為你們所有人提高透明度，這樣你就可以了解我們業務發生的動態，當期中收入，剩下的 10 % 下降，從整體槓桿的角度來看，它具有巨大的運營影響。所以就是高價值，高利潤，當月下旬傷到你的時候，肯定跌到底線。所以我相信我們會參與其中。我們在結構上採取了很多行動。我們在第二季度領先於此，正如我所說，我們有能力在第四季度恢復 GTS 的利潤率。

But let's go back to the first part of your question, which is that in-period 10% activity, that really comes from 2 aspects. One is based on our client business volumes that are embedded in our backlog and two, new selling bill signings that happen within a quarter, the latter being a minor part, the former being a major part. And when you take a look at what happened to us in the quarter, we did get impacted by lower client business based volumes that came out of predominantly 2 markets in Europe, that being United Kingdom and in Germany. But I would tell you, Europe overall, Europe was flat and pretty consistent with second quarter overall. So we still had good performance in our other base platforms or hardware, software. We fell short though in client base business volumes in GTS. So I wouldn't say it's per se macro, but we obviously saw less activity. But we got to improve our execution, period.

但是讓我們回到問題的第一部分，即期間內 10% 的活動，它實際上來自兩個方面。一個是基於我們積壓訂單中嵌入的客戶業務量，兩個是一個季度內發生的新銷售賬單簽署，後者是次要部分，前者是主要部分。當你看一下本季度發生在我們身上的事情時，我們確實受到了來自歐洲主要 2 個市場（即英國和德國）的較低客戶業務量的影響。但我會告訴你，整個歐洲，歐洲持平，與第二季度的整體情況非常一致。所以我們在其他基礎平台或硬件、軟件上仍然有很好的表現。儘管我們在 GTS 的客戶基礎業務量方面有所欠缺。所以我不會說這本身就是宏觀，但我們顯然看到了較少的活動。但我們必須提高我們的執行力，期間。

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess just on the Red Hat side, it's nice to see the robust 20% growth you guys had this quarter with Red Hat. I think it's a notable uptick then with what Red Hat was doing standalone at least. What do you think is the longer-term trend line that we should think about Red Hat's revenue growth as we go forward under IBM both maybe on the subscription and services side? And just to kind of level set this, the 14% pretax margin drop or 14 points drop in the cognitive segment, how much of that is just transaction related versus other factors?

我想就 Red Hat 而言，很高興看到本季度你們與 Red Hat 取得了 20% 的強勁增長。我認為至少與 Red Hat 獨立完成的工作相比，這是一個顯著的提升。你認為我們應該考慮 Red Hat 收入增長的長期趨勢線是什麼，因為我們在 IBM 的領導下可能在訂閱和服務方面前進？只是為了設定這個水平，14% 的稅前利潤率下降或認知部分下降 14 個百分點，其中有多少只是與其他因素相關的交易？

Okay. Amit, thank you very much. And I appreciate you asking the question upfront here on Red Hat because obviously we're very pleased. And I think this is an instantiation and validation of the power of bringing IBM and Red Hat together and how it is better for our clients and for our shareholders overall. We definitely made some significant innovation announcements early August. We talked about our business profile at Investor Day. And I think 90 days into this, we're very pleased, 20% growth overall at a normalized basis to give you a normalized historical comparison. So we're very pleased.

好的。阿米特，非常感謝你。感謝您在 Red Hat 上提前提出這個問題，因為顯然我們非常高興。我認為這是將 IBM 和 Red Hat 結合在一起的力量的實例和驗證，以及它如何更好地為我們的客戶和我們的股東整體服務。8 月初，我們確實發布了一些重要的創新公告。我們在投資者日討論了我們的業務概況。我認為進入這 90 天后，我們非常高興，在標準化的基礎上整體增長 20%，以便為您提供標準化的歷史比較。所以我們很高興。

But let me talk a little bit about the progress and what we're seeing within that 20% growth. And to your point, I would definitely reference for our investors pre the announcement in October of 2018, Red Hat was growing mid-teens. Just 3, 4 quarters later, at the time of closing in our first 90 days, you see the instantiation of that value given we accelerated it to 20%.

但讓我談談進展以及我們在 20% 的增長中看到的情況。就你的觀點而言，我肯定會在 2018 年 10 月宣布之前為我們的投資者提供參考，Red Hat 正在成長為十幾歲。僅 3、4 個季度後，在我們的前 90 天結束時，您會看到該值的實例化，因為我們將其加速到 20%。

But let's talk about some of the other milestones in -- and key indicators. One, you talked about infrastructure. We had strong growth in the infrastructure led by RHEL and that return to double-digit growth of 12% if I'm not mistaken, and it's been a long time since RHEL actually was growing 12%. The application development emerging technology including OpenShift is growing mid-30s. Our OpenShift and now our newly announced containerized software, modernization of our software and Cloud Paks, we have now over an 1,800 installed base client embedded with that. Our backlog on a normalized basis, up 19%, and within the first 90 days, we talked a lot about at the Investor Day the deferred write-down that we had to take, the $2.2 billion. We talked about, over time, the value of Red Hat's platform and technology and the high renewal rates. Well, within the first 90 days, we actually replenished almost $0.5 billion of deferred revenue because we had very strong bookings, and those bookings were led by subscription. We actually had 11 deals over $10 million, which was up threefold. So we're very pleased with Red Hat overall. And I guess I would conclude, most importantly, the confidence in the workforce in IBM and Red Hat. Attrition's stable, and we hired over 1,000 people. And lastly, to your point about operating margin, the entire operating margin impact was due to transactional-related cost.

但是，讓我們談談其他一些里程碑和關鍵指標。第一，你談到了基礎設施。以 RHEL 為首的基礎設施實現了強勁增長，如果我沒有記錯的話，它會恢復到 12% 的兩位數增長，而 RHEL 已經有很長一段時間沒有真正實現 12% 的增長了。包括 OpenShift 在內的應用程序開發新興技術正在 30 年代中期增長。我們的 OpenShift 和現在我們新發布的容器化軟件，我們的軟件和 Cloud Paks 的現代化，我們現在有超過 1,800 個嵌入了它的安裝基礎客戶端。我們在標準化基礎上的積壓增加了 19%，在最初的 90 天內，我們在投資者日談論了很多我們必須採取的延期減記，即 22 億美元。隨著時間的推移，我們討論了紅帽平台和技術的價值以及高續訂率。好吧，在前 90 天內，我們實際上補充了近 5 億美元的遞延收入，因為我們的預訂量非常大，而這些預訂量是由訂閱引起的。我們實際上有 11 筆交易超過 1000 萬美元，增長了三倍。所以我們對 Red Hat 總體上非常滿意。我想我會得出結論，最重要的是，IBM 和 Red Hat 的員工隊伍充滿信心。減員情況穩定，我們僱用了 1,000 多人。最後，就您關於營業利潤率的觀點而言，整個營業利潤率的影響是由於與交易相關的成本。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

Maybe to build on that with Red Hat doing a little bit better, just looking at cloud and cognitive overall, that was weighed by softer transaction processing platform revenue. So should we expect, Jim, this dynamic to continue? I'm just looking for clues here on how legacy IBM Software might perform as you execute on Red Hat?

也許是在 Red Hat 做得更好的基礎上，從整體上看雲計算和認知，這是由較軟的交易處理平台收入來衡量的。吉姆，我們是否應該期待這種動態繼續下去？我只是在這裡尋找線索，了解當您在 Red Hat 上執行時，舊版 IBM 軟件的性能如何？

Yes. I mean if you take a look at our third quarter performance, our Cloud & Cognitive Software, we posted 8% growth. We're very pleased with that. Now obviously that normalized Red Hat growth of 20% does not get consolidated into IBM's books as you all quite well know given the deferred revenue adjustment. In fact, as you saw in the supplementals again for transparency as I'd committed to all of you since the beginning of the year, Red Hat delivered $371 million of revenue, a little bit better than around the $350 million that we talked about. And within that, just to call it out right off the bat, the $0.70 dilution that we expected in the third quarter as we stated in prepared remarks, we did about $30 million better on the deferred revenue write-down. By the way, that's a skew over 3Q versus fourth quarter. We still expect about $1 billion still in the second half of '19. So we're very pleased with that 8% overall. By the way, we grew organically, too.

是的。我的意思是，如果你看一下我們第三季度的表現，我們的雲和認知軟件，我們公佈了 8% 的增長。我們對此非常滿意。現在很明顯，Red Hat 20% 的正常增長並沒有合併到 IBM 的賬簿中，因為考慮到遞延收入調整，你們都很清楚。事實上，正如我從年初以來向大家承諾的那樣，正如你們在補充中再次看到的那樣，紅帽實現了 3.71 億美元的收入，比我們談到的大約 3.5 億美元要好一點。在此範圍內，直接說出來，正如我們在準備好的評論中所述，我們預計第三季度的 0.70 美元稀釋，我們在遞延收入減記方面做得更好了約 3000 萬美元。順便說一下，這是第三季度與第四季度的偏差。我們仍然預計 19 年下半年仍有約 10 億美元。所以我們對總體上的 8% 非常滿意。順便說一下，我們也是有機增長的。

Now to your point, we had very good growth in cloud and data platform led by our Cloud Paks off to a nice start. We grew in Db2 and our core offerings. We grew in our organic-based cognitive applications portfolio with very strong growth in security and in some of our industry verticals like Maximo and TRIRIGA, but we actually did fall short in our transaction processing platform. And as you know, as I've said many times, that's high value to us and that's high value to our clients because we run the mission-critical workloads and applications on our systems portfolio, and that's always tied to client buying cycles.

現在就您的觀點而言，在我們的 Cloud Paks 的帶領下，我們在雲和數據平台方面取得了良好的開端。我們在 Db2 和我們的核心產品中成長。我們在基於有機的認知應用程序組合中取得了長足的進步，安全性以及我們的一些垂直行業（如 Maximo 和 TRIRIGA）增長非常強勁，但實際上我們在交易處理平台方面確實存在不足。正如你所知，正如我多次說過的那樣，這對我們和我們的客戶來說都是高價值，因為我們在我們的系統產品組合上運行關鍵任務工作負載和應用程序，而這始終與客戶購買週期相關。

Now when you take a look, to your question, what do we see going forward in the fourth quarter? We see pretty consistent performance, high single digit in this segment. A couple of things I would call out. Number one, we have a much tougher compare. Number two, the difference between the amount of transactional activity you do on a fourth quarter versus third quarter is obviously a big hill to climb, but we've got a nice pipeline, and it's all about execution. I would not expect our TPP to come back here in the fourth quarter. We grew I think 6%, 7% fourth quarter last year. So we will not grow in TPP in the fourth quarter, but we will have a strong growth in cloud and data platform and in cognitive apps.

現在，當您看一下您的問題時，我們對第四季度的前景有何看法？我們在該細分市場中看到非常一致的表現，高個位數。我會說幾件事。第一，我們有一個更艱難的比較。第二，你在第四季度與第三季度進行的交易活動數量之間的差異顯然是一座需要攀登的大山，但我們有一個很好的管道，而這一切都與執行有關。我不希望我們的 TPP 在第四季度回到這裡。我認為去年第四季度我們增長了 6%，增長了 7%。因此，我們在第四季度不會在 TPP 方面增長，但我們將在雲和數據平台以及認知應用方面實現強勁增長。

Our next question comes from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty。

Jim, just given all the moving pieces with divestitures, Red Hat is at a [base rate] cycle, how would you expect revenue strength in the fourth quarter relative to the [7 3 billion] (inaudible) sequentially over the last year?

吉姆，考慮到所有資產剝離的活動，紅帽處於 [基本利率] 週期，相對於去年連續 [730 億]（聽不清），您如何預計第四季度的收入強度？

Great. Thanks, Katy. Appreciate it. I think I got the heart of your question. You were breaking up there a little bit at least in the room here and on my speaker. As you heard in the prepared remarks, we did reaffirm guidance, at least $12.80 and about $12 billion of free cash flow. As we look into the fourth quarter, we expect revenue to sequentially increase about 3.5 to 3.7, in that range, quarter-to-quarter. And as I just stated on the last question, it's typically our biggest transactional quarter ever -- or, excuse me, within a year.

偉大的。謝謝，凱蒂。欣賞它。我想我明白了你問題的核心。至少在這間屋子里和我的揚聲器裡，你們有點分手了。正如您在準備好的評論中聽到的那樣，我們確實重申了指導，至少 12.80 美元和大約 120 億美元的自由現金流。當我們展望第四季度時，我們預計收入將在該範圍內環比增長約 3.5 至 3.7。正如我剛才在最後一個問題上所說的那樣，這通常是我們有史以來最大的交易季度——或者，對不起，一年之內。

Now a couple points to what you brought up. So it's a little bit higher than what you had asked. One, it's higher sequentially than 2018. And it's more representative of a normal mainframe cycle, which, if you go back to 2017, we were right within that. Now to your point, there's a few things I want to call out and give a little color what's underneath that. Number one, we continue to face a stronger and stronger dollar every quarter. It feels like each quarter I get up here and I talk about that, whereas 90 days ago, we were saying that basically no headwind. We're looking right now about 1 point to 1.5 points headwind in the fourth quarter based on where rates are at today.

現在有幾點指出你提出的問題。所以它比你問的要高一點。第一，它的順序高於 2018 年。它更能代表正常的大型機週期，如果你回到 2017 年，我們就在其中。現在就你的觀點而言，有幾件事我想指出來，並給它下面的東西一點顏色。第一，我們每個季度都繼續面對越來越強的美元。感覺就像每個季度我都站起來談論這個，而 90 天前，我們說基本上沒有逆風。根據今天的利率，我們現在正在尋找第四季度大約 1 點到 1.5 點的逆風。

Second, to your question, we still have a 2 point headwind, give or take, on the divesting of our software and mortgage processing based business, which was $2 billion annually here in the fourth quarter. So those 2 are kind of headwinds.

其次，對於你的問題，我們在剝離我們的軟件和基於抵押貸款處理的業務方面仍然有 2 點逆風，給予或接受，第四季度這裡每年 20 億美元。所以那兩個是逆風。

Now when you take a look at our portfolio, our mainframe, we are very pleased with the initial start. We announced it very late in the third quarter. We, in essence, have 1 week's worth of shipment. It met our expectations, and most importantly, the value proposition, the strong value proposition around data privacy, encryption everywhere, cloud native apps and putting Red Hat OpenShift on our mainframe and instant recovery are resonating well, and we got a very good pipeline. And we expect a normal cycle here in the fourth quarter, and I would attach that to the high-end DS8000 that we also announced. So Systems, we feel pretty good about the innovation and about us driving the fourth quarter.

現在，當您查看我們的產品組合，我們的大型機時，我們對最初的開始感到非常滿意。我們在第三季度很晚才宣布。本質上，我們有 1 週的裝運量。它滿足了我們的期望，最重要的是，價值主張，圍繞數據隱私、無處不在的加密、雲原生應用程序以及將 Red Hat OpenShift 放在我們的大型機上和即時恢復的強大價值主張產生了很好的共鳴，我們得到了一個非常好的管道。我們預計第四季度會有一個正常的周期，我會把它附加到我們也宣布的高端 DS8000 上。所以系統，我們對創新和我們推動第四季度感到非常滿意。

Software, I just talked about. We see consistent performance. Services, GBS, GBS continues to have great momentum. We had a good signings quarter, high single-digit signings. We continue to have good backlog runout, but again, GBS grew 7% last year. We had a strong quarter. We closed on a lot of milestone billings, but we still see growth here in GBS, albeit probably very low single digits and continuing that momentum. By the way, GBS, their backlog runout is actually improving right now as we move through 2020. So we see consistency. And in GTS, based on what I said in the prepared remarks and you could see in the supplemental chart, it's prudent right now not to plan on anything better. We are taking actions to aggressively change and adapt our portfolio, our offerings. We're seeing very good green shoots in our cloud base of business in that segment. And we're going to continue to adapt and change that, but we're also going to manage this business for margin, profit and cash, and we're going after the right structural actions going forward. So hopefully that gives you a little color about the 3.5 to 3.7.

軟件，我剛才講了。我們看到一致的表現。服務業、GBS、GBS 繼續保持強勁勢頭。我們有一個很好的簽約季度，高個位數的簽約。我們繼續有良好的積壓運行，但同樣，GBS 去年增長了 7%。我們有一個強勁的季度。我們關閉了很多里程碑式的賬單，但我們仍然看到 GBS 的增長，儘管可能是非常低的個位數並且繼續保持這種勢頭。順便說一句，GBS，隨著我們進入 2020 年，他們的積壓工作現在實際上正在改善。所以我們看到了一致性。在 GTS 中，根據我在準備好的評論中所說的以及您可以在補充圖表中看到的內容，現在謹慎的做法是不要計劃任何更好的事情。我們正在採取行動積極改變和調整我們的產品組合和產品。我們在該領域的雲業務基礎上看到了非常好的萌芽。我們將繼續適應和改變這一點，但我們也將管理這項業務以獲取利潤、利潤和現金，並且我們將繼續採取正確的結構性行動。所以希望這能給你一些關於 3.5 到 3.7 的顏色。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Toni Sacconaghi 和 Bernstein。

Jim, you talked about a little bit of a different strategy focusing on cash and profitability for GTS. Given that, that's about 35% of your revenues and you're looking at maybe a more muted growth rate, are you still comfortable in talking about 4 to 5 points of growth and mid-single-digit growth for 2020? And then just related to that, maybe you can just talk about the dynamics of sort of what happened over the course of the quarter. You provided some guidance on the early April call. You fell a little short of that. And it sounds like it was mainly GTS. But at that point, did you not have a good read on what was happening with your workloads during the quarter? And I guess the question I'm asking, did it continue to decelerate from there? And what does that either say about the value proposition of GTS today for existing clients or more just about the health of your clients? So sorry I snuck 2 in there but one, just how we think of revenue growth next year in light of GTS being lower; and then two, what sort of changed from August 5 on.

吉姆，你談到了一些不同的戰略，重點是 GTS 的現金和盈利能力。鑑於此，這大約佔您收入的 35%，而且您正在尋找可能更溫和的增長率，您是否仍然願意談論 2020 年 4 到 5 個點的增長和中個位數增長？然後與此相關，也許你可以談談本季度發生的事情的動態。您在 4 月初的電話會議上提供了一些指導。你還差一點。聽起來主要是 GTS。但在那個時候，您是否沒有很好地了解本季度您的工作負載發生了什麼？我想我要問的問題是，它是否繼續從那裡減速？這對 GTS 今天對現有客戶的價值主張或對您客戶的健康有何影響？很抱歉，我在其中偷偷放了 2 個，只有一個，我們如何考慮 GTS 較低的明年的收入增長；然後是兩個，從 8 月 5 日開始發生了什麼樣的變化。

As always, Toni, thank you very much. At least it was only 2 and not 3 like last quarter, but who's counting? Anyways, let me try to take this in a couple of different components, so we can unpack this, so you can understand fundamentally what's happening to us in GTS, what happened throughout the quarter and then to your first part of your question, what do we see overall for IBM in 2020, which, by the way, we'll spend a lot more time on in January because given the amount of transactional business both on hardware and software but also on services signings that we got to get done here in the fourth quarter. We got a very robust pipeline over the next couple quarters, and that will dictate more importantly how 2020 will play out.

一如既往，托尼，非常感謝你。至少只有 2 個，而不是像上個季度那樣的 3 個，但誰在數呢？無論如何，讓我試著把它分成幾個不同的部分，這樣我們就可以解開它，這樣你就可以從根本上理解我們在 GTS 中發生了什麼，整個季度發生了什麼，然後是你問題的第一部分，你做了什麼我們看到了 IBM 在 2020 年的總體情況，順便說一下，我們將在 1 月份花更多的時間，因為考慮到我們必須在此處完成的硬件和軟件以及服務簽約方面的交易業務量第四季。在接下來的幾個季度中，我們有一個非常強大的渠道，這將更重要地決定 2020 年的結果。

But if you take a look at -- within the quarter. So let me talk a little bit about -- I'm not going to repeat what's on the supplemental chart. The net message in the supplemental chart is, 90 days ago, we printed down 4%, as you all know, in our GTS technology services revenue. That was basically all out of backlog in our in-period sell and bill activity, and volumes from our clients was roughly muted. It was flat. That has been consistent for quite a while. We saw at that time a backlog that ran out in third quarter but roughly down 3%, and in fourth quarter, it was down 1% to 2%. That was the driver behind calling the inflection point.

但是，如果您看一下 - 在本季度內。所以讓我談談 - 我不會重複補充圖表上的內容。補充圖表中的淨信息是，90 天前，我們的 GTS 技術服務收入減少了 4%。這基本上是我們期間銷售和賬單活動的全部積壓，我們客戶的交易量基本沒有增長。它是平坦的。這已經持續了很長一段時間。當時我們看到積壓在第三季度用完，但大約下降了 3%，而在第四季度，下降了 1% 到 2%。那是調用拐點的驅動因素。

Now how did the quarter play out? The quarter actually played out through August quarter-to-date, our GTS business was improving off of that down 4% that we exited second quarter. We were hovering about down 3%, give or take. This all happened late in the quarter. And by the way, to the earlier question, that's why you see it flow through our fixed structural costs that impacted our margins overall.

現在這個季度表現如何？該季度實際上一直持續到 8 月為止，我們的 GTS 業務正在改善我們退出第二季度時下降 4% 的情況。我們徘徊在下跌 3% 左右。這一切都發生在本季度末。順便說一下，對於之前的問題，這就是為什麼你看到它流經我們的固定結構成本，影響了我們的整體利潤率。

So when you look at it, one, it was tied to volume-based businesses in a couple of different markets around the world; and two, it was tied to some part of our execution. I'm not going to back off that. From a credibility perspective, we've got to execute better there. We've been focusing this business on margin, profit and cash. It is a high fixed cost, high capital-intensive business, and we've got to deliver that right return to our investors given that we've chosen our capital allocation strategy with the acquisition of Red Hat and what we've done to our balance sheet to lever up, which, by the way, we made a great down payment on with the $7 billion of debt we paid down. But it happened late in the quarter. We are taking action around that.

因此，當您查看它時，第一，它與全球幾個不同市場的基於數量的業務相關；第二，它與我們執行的某些部分有關。我不會退縮的。從可信度的角度來看，我們必須在那裡執行得更好。我們一直將這項業務的重點放在利潤、利潤和現金上。這是一項高固定成本、高資本密集型業務，我們必須為投資者提供正確的回報，因為我們選擇了收購紅帽的資本配置策略，以及我們對我們所做的一切資產負債表槓桿化，順便說一句，我們用償還的 70 億美元債務支付了一大筆首付款。但它發生在本季度末。我們正在為此採取行動。

Now I'll conclude. Entering into 2020, we continue to see very strong performance as we continue to adapt our portfolio and our offerings in GTS to capture what we believe is that chapter 2 of hybrid cloud. One, our cloud base of business with regards to our backlog, our GTS backlog is $80 billion. Over 40% of that backlog is cloud. By the way, and I know you've done a ton of analysis on this, over the last 5 years, our GTS backlog ex currency is flat. And within that, we went from low single-digit cloud content to 40% cloud content overall. And now with the acquisition of Red Hat and building out differentiated offering and capabilities, we expect that to accelerate as we go forward. We delivered 60% signings growth in the fourth quarter. 40% of our backlog now is cloud, and we got a book of business on trailing 12 months in excess of $8 billion on cloud.

現在我要結束了。進入 2020 年，隨著我們繼續調整我們的產品組合和我們在 GTS 中的產品以捕捉我們認為的混合雲第 2 章，我們繼續看到非常強勁的性能。第一，關於積壓的我們的雲業務基礎，我們的 GTS 積壓為 800 億美元。超過 40% 的積壓是雲。順便說一句，我知道您對此進行了大量分析，在過去的 5 年中，我們的 GTS 積壓（不包括貨幣）持平。在此範圍內，我們從低個位數的雲內容到整體 40% 的雲內容。現在，隨著對 Red Hat 的收購併構建差異化的產品和功能，我們預計這會隨著我們的前進而加速。我們在第四季度實現了 60% 的簽約增長。現在，我們 40% 的積壓訂單是雲，我們在過去 12 個月中獲得了超過 80 億美元的雲業務。

So when we look to 2020, we talked about on August 2, 4 to 5 points to your point, we talked about moving IBM to a sustainable revenue path. And what I've seen play out in third quarter, while we got a headwind right in front of us on GTS in fourth quarter, nothing would change my mind with regards to 2020 on driving sustainable revenue growth overall.

因此，當我們展望 2020 年時，我們在 8 月 2 日談到了 4 到 5 點，我們談到了將 IBM 推向可持續的收入路徑。我在第三季度看到的結果是，雖然第四季度我們在 GTS 上遇到了逆風，但我對 2020 年推動整體收入可持續增長的想法不會改變。

Our next question comes from Matt Cabral with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Matt Cabral。

Jim, you called out some headwinds you're seeing in Germany and the U.K. in GTS, but I'm wondering if you'd talk a little bit more broadly about the enterprise spending environment by geography and just if you're starting to see any impacts from a more volatile macro that's in -- across your business.

吉姆，你在 GTS 中指出了你在德國和英國看到的一些不利因素，但我想知道你是否會更廣泛地討論按地理位置劃分的企業支出環境，以及你是否開始看到來自更不穩定的宏的任何影響 - 在您的業務中。

Sure, Matt. Thank you very much. I mean obviously, we operate in 170 countries around the world. So we are always monitoring and analyzing the market and most importantly to the heart of your question, client buying behaviors. When you look at the IT industry, the IT industry has always been predicated on effective balance of leveraging technology for growth and leveraging technology for productivity. And over time, that balance might shift, and we are seeing a shift, and we have seen a shift by the way. It's not just right in front of us here in the month of September that clients, from a buying perspective, are shifting more and more to productivity to quick payback to ROI and also predictability of spend, which, by the way, plays to the breadth and value of our portfolio overall. And you see how that's played out in our GBS base of business, continued momentum and in our Cloud & Cognitive Software business driving the value because clients are still spending. They're spending in those key high-value areas around cloud, around digital, around data/AI and around security. Why? Because they want to create a competitive advantage to win in the marketplace. So we still see spending in those areas.

當然，馬特。非常感謝。我的意思是很明顯，我們在全球 170 個國家開展業務。所以我們一直在監控和分析市場，最重要的是你問題的核心，客戶購買行為。當您審視 IT 行業時，IT 行業始終基於利用技術促進增長和利用技術提高生產力之間的有效平衡。隨著時間的推移，這種平衡可能會發生變化，我們正在看到這種變化，順便說一句，我們已經看到了這種變化。不僅僅是在 9 月份擺在我們面前的是，從購買的角度來看，客戶越來越多地轉向生產力以快速回報投資回報率以及支出的可預測性，順便說一下，這在廣度上發揮了作用以及我們投資組合的整體價值。你會看到這在我們的 GBS 業務基礎中如何發揮作用，持續的勢頭以及我們的雲和認知軟件業務如何推動價值，因為客戶仍在支出。他們在圍繞雲、數字、數據/人工智能和安全的關鍵高價值領域進行投資。為什麼？因為他們想創造競爭優勢以贏得市場。所以我們仍然看到這些領域的支出。

And when we look around the world -- and I can only give you the lens of IBM. When you look around the world, we had strong growth in many markets around the world: Japan, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, Italy, Spain, amongst many that grow -- that grew very nicely. We did fall short in a couple other areas around the world, and I called out in GTS specifically U.K. and Germany. But I'll tell you, overall, our Europe business was flat. So I would not say per se this is a macro-related thing. And by the way, we're selling hardware, software-based platforms all over the world. So we're acknowledging shifts in buying behavior. We're adapting our value propositions. Clients are still spending in those key high-value areas, and that's where we're placing, as CFO I could tell you, where we're placing all of our investment and capital allocation in our business.

當我們環顧世界時——我只能給你 IBM 的鏡頭。當你環顧世界時，我們在世界各地的許多市場都有強勁的增長：日本、加拿大、巴西、墨西哥、意大利、西班牙，在許多增長中——增長非常好。我們在世界其他幾個地區確實做得不夠好，我在 GTS 中特別提到了英國和德國。但我會告訴你，總體而言，我們的歐洲業務持平。所以我不會說這本身是與宏觀相關的事情。順便說一句，我們在全世界銷售基於硬件和軟件的平台。因此，我們承認購買行為發生了變化。我們正在調整我們的價值主張。客戶仍在那些關鍵的高價值領域進行支出，而這正是我們所放置的地方，作為首席財務官，我可以告訴你，我們將所有的投資和資本配置都投入到我們的業務中。

Our next question comes from Jim Schneider with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的吉姆施耐德。

Jim, a question on the services business. The signings rebounded nicely in the quarter, up 15%. Can you maybe talk a little bit about the composition of those signings, particularly what that means about the sustainability of growth in GBS and to what extent those signings were kind of overweighted towards GTS that would help replenish the backlog?

吉姆，關於服務業務的問題。簽約人數在本季度反彈良好，增長了 15%。您能否談談這些簽約的構成，特別是這對 GBS 增長的可持續性意味著什麼，以及這些簽約在多大程度上偏重於 GTS 以幫助補充積壓？

Sure. Thanks for the question, Jim. I appreciate it. So let me unpack this a little on signings backlog and backlog realization. We've been talking a lot about this, I think, over the last 6 quarters. We had great signings, signings over $9 billion up 15%. We had growth in GTS north of 20%; growth in GBS high single digits, if I'm not mistaken, about 9% growth. Within that, the composition as we all know, signings are not all the same. They're not equal on how they impact backlog, how they impact realization, but we had great signings growth above $100 million, large deals, up 45% overall, and we had small mid-sized deals up high single digits overall. So when you take a look at our signings, that then translated into an improvement in our overall backlog position. Our backlog improved 1 point quarter-to-quarter.

當然。謝謝你的問題，吉姆。我很感激。因此，讓我稍微解釋一下簽約積壓和積壓實現。我認為，在過去的 6 個季度中，我們一直在談論這個問題。我們有很棒的簽約，簽約金額超過 90 億美元，增長了 15%。我們的 GTS 增長超過 20%；如果我沒記錯的話，GBS 的高個位數增長約為 9%。在那之中，眾所周知的組成，引援並不完全相同。它們在如何影響積壓訂單、如何影響實現方面並不相同，但我們的簽約增長超過 1 億美元，大型交易總體增長了 45%，而我們的中小型交易總體增長了高個位數。因此，當您查看我們的簽約時，就會轉化為我們整體積壓情況的改善。我們的積壓訂單每季度減少 1 個百分點。

And let me break it out then between GTS and GBS, and again, for enhanced transparency, you saw the supplemental chart on GTS. GTS backlog, $80 billion. That backlog is down 2%. That improved about 1 point, 1.5 points quarter-to-quarter. We've seen relatively stable duration in GTS' backlog for a long period of time even as we continue to mix more and more to cloud. And now that cloud is over 40% of that backlog.

然後讓我在 GTS 和 GBS 之間將其分開，再次，為了提高透明度，您看到了 GTS 上的補充圖表。GTS 積壓訂單，800 億美元。積壓訂單下降了 2%。這提高了大約 1 個百分點，比上一季度提高了 1.5 個百分點。我們已經看到 GTS 積壓的持續時間在很長一段時間內相對穩定，即使我們繼續將越來越多的內容混合到雲中。現在，雲已超過積壓的 40%。

GBS grew signings 9%. GBS backlog is down 4, and that improved almost a couple of points quarter-to-quarter. It's this phenomenon of signings to backlog to revenue realization has really played out dramatically for the last 2-plus years in GBS. We talked about how Mark and the team have done a great job remixing the portfolio and offerings to capture where value and where spend are going. That is moving more and more to a consulting base and a cloud application modernization base area that's shorter duration. Our duration in our GBS backlog has reduced over 20% to 25% over the last couple years. And that's why you've been able to see an overall backlog that's been down mid- to high single digits, and we're delivering consistent revenue growth anywhere from 1% to 3% to 4% in that GBS base of business. So that is where you're seeing a big change.

GBS 的簽約人數增長了 9%。GBS 積壓訂單減少了 4 個，並且環比提高了近幾個百分點。在過去 2 年多的時間裡，GBS 確實發生了這種從簽約到實現收入積壓的現象。我們討論了 Mark 和團隊如何出色地重新組合產品組合和產品，以捕捉價值和支出的去向。那就是越來越多地轉向持續時間較短的諮詢基地和雲應用程序現代化基地。在過去幾年中，我們的 GBS 積壓工作持續時間減少了 20% 至 25%。這就是為什麼你能夠看到整體積壓下降到中高個位數，並且我們在 GBS 業務基礎上實現了從 1% 到 3% 到 4% 的持續收入增長。這就是你看到巨大變化的地方。

Our next question will come from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗集團的吉姆蘇瓦。

I'm definitely not the smartest person on this call. But can you just spend maybe a brief minute going over on Slide 18 when you talk about the GTS service revenue dynamics? You've mentioned in-period business volumes, but then it looks like it continues on to Q4. What I'm more interested in is do these in-period things continue on into Q1 in 2020 or maybe help a person who doesn't fully comprehend everything better understand it.

我絕對不是這次電話會議中最聰明的人。但是，當您談論 GTS 服務收入動態時，您能否花一分鐘時間回顧一下幻燈片 18？你提到了期間內的業務量，但看起來它會持續到第四季度。我更感興趣的是，這些期間內的事情是否會持續到 2020 年第一季度，或者可能會幫助一個沒有完全理解所有事情的人更好地理解它。

Sure, Jim, no problem. And hopefully, you appreciate the enhanced transparency in the chart overall. Obviously, Patricia and the team can spend a lot more time on this tonight. But as I stated earlier, the net message is in a GTS outsourcing based business, you have roughly -- you have -- as you enter a quarter, you have about 90-plus percent of that revenue that's under backlog, high annuity content-based business. It's under contract. You have a remaining 10% that is in-period sell and bill activity and also tied to the client business volumes that run off that backlog. And when you look at second quarter, it pretty much played out as we expected, down 4%. That's what the backlog said entering the quarter. Our in-period activity of sell and bill and transactional components were basically muted.

當然，吉姆，沒問題。希望您欣賞圖表整體透明度的提高。顯然，帕特里夏和團隊今晚可以在這上面花更多的時間。但正如我之前所說，網絡消息是在基於 GTS 外包的業務中，當你進入一個季度時，你有大約 90% 以上的收入處於積壓狀態，高年金內容 -基礎業務。它在合同中。您有剩餘的 10% 用於期間內銷售和開票活動，並且還與消耗該積壓訂單的客戶業務量相關。當你看第二季度時，它幾乎如我們預期的那樣發揮作用，下降了 4%。這就是進入本季度的積壓情況。我們的銷售和賬單以及交易組件的期間活動基本沒有。

As we got into third quarter, you see the way the chart is laid out, that backlog runout said inflection point down 4%, goes to down 3%, goes down -- to down 1% to 2%. Assuming that we consistently execute both in an IBM manner and the market overall. And when you look at the third quarter, the third quarter, our in-period, that 10% was down mid-teens due to less client business volume and also execution on our small deals predominantly in Europe as I stated. That then has a flow-through because now we're starting October 1 looking at fourth quarter. Whereas we thought we were going to be down 1% to 2% in backlog, now we're down 2% to 3%. And to the extent we can go back and execute to that 10% that has a muted effect, we would end up the quarter at that level. If it plays out like third quarter, we're going to be down 3% to 4%. That's why I stated we're going to focus all of our energy on continuing to transform the offerings and portfolio and capture where spend and growth is coming from and getting after the structural cost to drive the margin expansion.

當我們進入第三季度時，您會看到圖表的佈局方式，積壓訂單表示拐點下降 4%，下降 3%，下降 1% 至 2%。假設我們始終以 IBM 的方式和整個市場執行。當你看第三季度時，第三季度，我們的同期，由於客戶業務量減少以及我們主要在歐洲的小交易的執行，這 10% 下降了十幾歲。然後會有一個流程，因為現在我們從 10 月 1 日開始查看第四季度。雖然我們原以為積壓訂單會下降 1% 到 2%，但現在我們下降了 2% 到 3%。在某種程度上，我們可以回過頭來執行那 10% 的效果，我們將在這個水平上結束這個季度。如果它像第三季度那樣發揮作用，我們將下降 3% 至 4%。這就是為什麼我說我們將把所有的精力集中在繼續轉變產品和產品組合上，並捕捉支出和增長的來源，並在結構性成本之後推動利潤率擴張。

Our last question comes from Keith Bachman with Bank of Montréal.

我們的最後一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Keith Bachman。

Jim, I wanted to pick up on the duration comment you made. Does duration normalize in '20? In other words, do you think you can begin to glow -- grow, rather, services backlog? Or do you still feel like there's compression associated with the services signing on duration? And then I'll ask my second question, too. The consulting business in GBS also had a good quarter, 5% growth. Accenture's had some weak bookings frankly on consulting, and I'm just wondering how you're thinking about that business and the economic sensitivity associated with it as we seem to be facing some more headwinds here. Do you think that consulting business as you see it today can continue to grow low to mid-single digits over the next couple of quarters? And that's it for me.

吉姆，我想听聽你對持續時間的評論。持續時間是否在 20 年正常化？換句話說，您是否認為您可以開始發光——增長，而不是服務積壓？或者您是否仍然覺得與服務簽約持續時間相關的壓縮？然後我也會問我的第二個問題。GBS 的諮詢業務也有一個不錯的季度，增長了 5%。坦率地說，埃森哲在諮詢方面的預訂量很低，我只是想知道您如何看待該業務以及與之相關的經濟敏感性，因為我們似乎在這裡面臨更多的阻力。您認為您今天看到的諮詢業務能否在未來幾個季度繼續保持低至中個位數的增長？對我來說就是這樣。

Okay. Keith, thanks. Good way to wrap up on the part of our portfolio that has delivered consistent operational execution. And as I stated earlier, the team really should be commended because we are capturing and we are becoming the clients' provider and service provider of choice as they embark on their digital reinvention journeys and journeys to cloud.

好的。基思，謝謝。很好的方式來總結我們已經交付了一致的運營執行的投資組合。正如我之前所說，該團隊確實應該受到讚揚，因為我們正在捕捉並成為客戶的首選供應商和服務供應商，因為他們開始了他們的數字化重塑之旅和雲之旅。

But let me take your second part of your question first if I remember correctly, and that is comparison to Accenture. But more importantly, I'm not going to talk about them. I'm going to talk about our business. Our consulting business continues to execute very well. We delivered 5% growth here. By the way, off of a tougher and tougher compare as we move throughout 2018, we improved that consulting performance in GBS. We delivered 5% growth, great growth in application modernization consulting and also on our next-generation enterprise applications like S/4HANA and in Salesforce. And by the way, I talked about GBS signings up high single digits. We were up significant double digits in consulting signings, so we had a great quarter overall on signings.

但是，如果我沒記錯的話，讓我先回答你問題的第二部分，那就是與埃森哲的比較。但更重要的是，我不會談論它們。我要談談我們的業務。我們的諮詢業務繼續表現良好。我們在這裡實現了 5% 的增長。順便說一句，隨著我們在整個 2018 年的發展，我們進行了越來越嚴格的比較，我們提高了 GBS 的諮詢績效。我們實現了 5% 的增長，在應用程序現代化諮詢以及 S/4HANA 和 Salesforce 等下一代企業應用程序方面實現了巨大增長。順便說一句，我談到了 GBS 簽約高個位數。我們在諮詢簽約方面實現了兩位數的顯著增長，因此我們在整體簽約方面取得了不錯的成績。

And that kind of leads me to your first question. When you look at our backlog, our duration has come down, like I said, 20% to 25% over the last handful of years. I don't see that changing right now. As this world moves more and more to cloud, we are moving more and more to shorter-duration, higher consumption-based activity that's going to play to the hand in the portfolio that we've put in place overall. So I think the reason I gave enhanced disclosure between GTS and GBS on duration and overall backlog, I think you see in the fundamental differences between the 2, and the GBS will continue to impact when you just look at the printed number of IBM. But I would focus more on GTS overall as far as looking at the total backlog going forward.

這讓我想到了你的第一個問題。當您查看我們的積壓訂單時，就像我說的那樣，在過去幾年中我們的工期縮短了 20% 到 25%。我現在看不到這種變化。隨著這個世界越來越多地轉向雲，我們也越來越多地轉向持續時間更短、消費量更高的活動，這些活動將在我們總體上實施的投資組合中發揮作用。因此，我認為我在 GTS 和 GBS 之間就持續時間和總體積壓情況進行加強披露的原因，我想你會看到兩者之間的根本差異，而當你只看 IBM 的印刷數量時，GBS 將繼續產生影響。但就未來的總積壓情況而言，我會更多地關注 GTS 整體。

So with that, again, I want to thank you for joining our call here today. A few comments just to wrap up. As I've stated, we've been investing and taking bold actions to position our business to win in chapter 2 of hybrid cloud. The acceleration in Red Hat, our early support for our Cloud Paks and modernizing our software portfolio and growth in our digital and application modernization services are all validation the actions we've taken are resonating with our clients and driving that key high-value growth areas in the IT industry. At the same time, we're continuing our disciplined financial management, which should serve us well as we head into fourth quarter and 2020. So again, I'd like to thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to the continued dialogue.

因此，我再次感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。一些評論只是為了結束。正如我所說，我們一直在投資並採取大膽的行動來定位我們的業務，以在混合雲的第 2 章中取勝。Red Hat 的加速發展、我們對 Cloud Paks 的早期支持、我們軟件產品組合的現代化以及我們數字和應用程序現代化服務的增長都證明我們採取的行動正在與我們的客戶產生共鳴並推動關鍵的高價值增長領域在IT行業。與此同時，我們將繼續嚴格的財務管理，這在我們進入第四季度和 2020 年時應該會很好地為我們服務。因此，我再次感謝您今天加入我們，我們期待繼續對話。

Okay. Sheila, I'm going to put it back to you to close out the call, please.

好的。希拉，我會把它還給你以結束通話，拜託。

Thank you. Thank you for participating in today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。此時您可以斷開連接。