International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by.

歡迎，感謝您的支持。

(Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）正在錄製今天的會議。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

如果您有異議，此時您可以斷開連接。

Now I will turn the meeting over to Patricia Murphy with IBM.

現在我將會議轉交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy。

Ma'am, you may begin.

女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This is Patricia Murphy, Vice President of Investor Relations for IBM, and I'd like to welcome you to our third quarter earnings presentation.

我是 IBM 投資者關係副總裁 Patricia Murphy，歡迎您參加我們的第三季度收益演示。

I'm here today with Jim Kavanaugh, IBM Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天，我和 IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jim Kavanaugh 一起來到這裡。

Our prepared remarks will be available within a couple of hours, and a replay of the webcast will be posted by this time tomorrow.

我們準備好的評論將在幾個小時內提供，網絡廣播的重播將在明天這個時候發布。

I'll also remind you that certain comments made in this presentation may be characterized as forward looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

我還要提醒您，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本演示文稿中的某些評論可能具有前瞻性。

Those statements involve a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially.

這些陳述涉及許多可能導致實際結果大不相同的因素。

Additional information concerning these factors is contained in the company's filings with the SEC.

有關這些因素的更多信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

Copies are available from the SEC, from the IBM website or from us in Investor Relations.

副本可從美國證券交易委員會、IBM 網站或我們的投資者關係部獲得。

Our presentation also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures in an effort to provide additional information to investors.

我們的演示文稿還包括某些非 GAAP 財務指標，旨在為投資者提供更多信息。

All non-GAAP measures have been reconciled to their related GAAP measures in accordance with SEC rules.

所有非 GAAP 措施均已根據 SEC 規則與其相關的 GAAP 措施進行了協調。

You'll find reconciliation charts at the end of the presentation and in the Form 8-K submitted to the SEC.

您將在演示文稿末尾和提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格中找到調節圖表。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

因此，我會把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Patricia, and thanks to all of you for joining us.

謝謝，Patricia，也感謝大家加入我們。

In the third quarter, we delivered $18.8 billion of revenue, $3.6 billion of operating pretax income and $3.42 of operating earnings per share, and over the last 12 months, we generated $12.2 billion of free cash flow with realization over 100%.

第三季度，我們實現了 188 億美元的收入、36 億美元的稅前營業收入和 3.42 美元的每股營業收入，在過去 12 個月中，我們產生了 122 億美元的自由現金流，實現率超過 100%。

As compared to last year, our revenue was flat at constant currency, though down 2% with the impact of the stronger dollar.

與去年相比，我們的收入按固定匯率計算持平，但由於美元走強的影響下降了 2%。

Gross profit margin was flat, which is the best year-to-year performance in years.

毛利率持平，這是多年來最好的同比表現。

The improvement was led by services margin expansion.

改善是由服務利潤率擴張帶動的。

We expanded our overall operating pretax margin, and we grew operating profit and earnings per share.

我們擴大了整體營業稅前利潤率，營業利潤和每股收益也有所增長。

We continue to see strong client demand in the emerging high-value segments of the IT industry.

我們繼續看到 IT 行業新興高價值領域的強勁客戶需求。

And our performance this quarter was driven by the offerings in hybrid cloud, in security, in digital and in analytics and AI, a testament to our ability to deliver differentiated value to our clients through innovative technologies with the skills and expertise to implement these technologies.

我們本季度的業績是由混合雲、安全、數字、分析和人工智能領域的產品推動的，這證明了我們通過創新技術以及實施這些技術的技能和專業知識為客戶提供差異化價值的能力。

We see the results in our strategic imperatives revenue growth of 13% over the last 12 months.

在過去 12 個月中，我們的戰略需求收入增長了 13%。

We also see this playing out in higher operating margin over the last few quarters, which supports both our long-term investment and return to shareholders.

我們還看到這在過去幾個季度的更高營業利潤率中發揮了作用，這支持了我們的長期投資和股東回報。

With our success in these higher-value areas and our focus on delivering consistent operational performance, we remain on track to our full year expectations of earnings per share and free cash flow.

憑藉我們在這些高價值領域的成功以及我們對提供一致的運營績效的專注，我們仍有望實現全年每股收益和自由現金流的預期。

Coming into the second half, we said we expected to improve our services revenue trajectory and to expand total services margins for the half.

進入下半年，我們表示我們希望改善我們的服務收入軌跡並擴大下半年的總服務利潤率。

We also said we'd face some headwinds as we wrap on the new mainframe launch and our strongest software performance in the third quarter of last year.

我們還表示，在我們結束新的大型機發布和去年第三季度最強勁的軟件性能時，我們將面臨一些阻力。

And so now this quarter, we deliver revenue growth and gross margin expansion in both services segments.

因此，本季度，我們在兩個服務領域都實現了收入增長和毛利率增長。

In Global Business Services, our revenue growth accelerated, driven by consulting as we help clients with their digital transformations.

在全球商業服務方面，我們的收入增長加速，這得益於我們幫助客戶進行數字化轉型的諮詢服務。

And we grew revenue again in Technology Services & Cloud Platforms, driven by hybrid cloud implementations.

在混合雲實施的推動下，我們在技術服務和雲平台方面的收入再次增長。

And I should mention that my revenue comments here and throughout will be based on constant currency.

我應該提到，我在這里和整個收入評論將基於不變的貨幣。

In Systems, our IBM Z revenue grew despite a wrap on new mainframe launch, resulting in what is now the most successful Z program in our history.

在系統方面，我們的 IBM Z 收入在新大型機發布結束後仍然增長，這導致了我們歷史上目前最成功的 Z 計劃。

And then looking at our software revenue, which spans our segments, we had growth in integration software, driven by offerings that help clients modernize applications and enable hybrid cloud adoption.

然後看看我們跨越各個細分市場的軟件收入，我們在集成軟件方面取得了增長，這是由幫助客戶實現應用程序現代化和支持混合雲採用的產品推動的。

In solutions software, we had good performance in several areas, including security, key offerings in analytics like data science and our Watson Health vertical as we embed AI into more of our offerings.

在解決方案軟件方面，我們在多個領域取得了良好的表現，包括安全性、數據科學等分析領域的關鍵產品以及我們的 Watson Health 垂直領域，因為我們將 AI 嵌入到更多產品中。

At the same time, we continue to deal with challenges in a few horizontal solution areas and a tougher compare in transaction processing software, both of which impacted overall software revenue growth.

與此同時，我們繼續應對一些橫向解決方案領域的挑戰，並在交易處理軟件方面進行更嚴格的比較，這兩者都影響了整體軟件收入的增長。

Across our segments, our strategic imperatives revenue has grown to $39.5 billion over the last 12 months.

在過去的 12 個月中，我們各個部門的戰略需求收入已增長到 395 億美元。

Within that, our cloud revenue is $19 billion, and we exited the third quarter with an as-a-service annual run rate of $11.4 billion, which again was up 24%.

其中，我們的雲收入為 190 億美元，第三季度結束時即服務年運行率為 114 億美元，再次增長 24%。

While that's already a significant revenue base in the emerging high-value segments of the IT industry such as cloud and AI, it's still early in the adoption of these technologies.

雖然這已經成為 IT 行業新興高價值領域（如雲和 AI）的重要收入基礎，但這些技術的採用仍處於早期階段。

For example, it's estimated that enterprises are only 10% to 20% into their cloud journey with progress slowed by the lack of interoperability across cloud environments and concerns about the ability to manage data privacy and security in multiple cloud environments.

例如，據估計，由於缺乏跨雲環境的互操作性以及對在多個雲環境中管理數據隱私和安全的能力的擔憂，企業的雲之旅只進行了 10% 到 20%，進度放緩。

And so clients need a cloud partner that can offer a hybrid cloud for workloads that cut across public, private and traditional; a secure cloud for mission-critical workloads and highly sensitive data; and an open cloud to run complex, multi-cloud environments.

因此，客戶需要一個雲合作夥伴能夠為跨越公共、私有和傳統的工作負載提供混合雲；用於關鍵任務工作負載和高度敏感數據的安全雲；以及運行複雜的多雲環境的開放雲。

12 months ago, we launched IBM Cloud Private, which is the starting point for many companies as they embrace a hybrid multi-cloud strategy.

12 個月前，我們推出了 IBM Cloud Private，這是許多公司採用混合多雲戰略的起點。

Already, more than 400 global companies have embraced this platform to manage mission-critical business processes in the cloud, and nearly all of these are competitive wins.

已經有 400 多家全球公司採用該平台來管理雲中的關鍵任務業務流程，幾乎所有這些都是競爭性的勝利。

Just yesterday, we announced a series of innovations that will help clients scale their cloud, AI and cybersecurity initiatives.

就在昨天，我們宣布了一系列創新，這些創新將幫助客戶擴展他們的雲、人工智能和網絡安全計劃。

These include IBM Multicloud Manager, which is the industry's first service to deploy and manage complete applications in any cloud environment.

其中包括 IBM Multicloud Manager，這是業界首個在任何云環境中部署和管理完整應用程序的服務。

We also announced IBM's AI OpenScale technology, the first open interoperable AI platform to manage the life cycle of all forms of AI applications and models.

我們還發布了 IBM 的 AI OpenScale 技術，這是第一個開放的可互操作 AI 平台，用於管理所有形式的 AI 應用程序和模型的生命週期。

This includes the management of bias, security and providence of models and data, which are the issues clients are facing with scaling AI in the enterprise.

這包括模型和數據的偏差、安全性和供應的管理，這是客戶在企業中擴展 AI 時面臨的問題。

These are just a few examples of how we're building our technology innovations and industry expertise with trust and security to help an enterprise on their journey to cloud and to AI.

這些只是我們如何通過信任和安全來構建我們的技術創新和行業專業知識，以幫助企業踏上雲和人工智能之旅的幾個例子。

Before getting into the financial metrics, I'll lay out the drivers of our operating earnings per share growth.

在進入財務指標之前，我將列出我們每股營業收入增長的驅動因素。

As I said, our revenue was flat at constant currency, but with the continued strengthening of the dollar, revenue was down 2%.

正如我所說，我們的收入按固定匯率計算持平，但隨著美元的持續走強，收入下降了 2%。

And at constant margin, this was a headwind to profit and earnings per share growth.

在固定利潤率的情況下，這對利潤和每股收益的增長是不利的。

Our actions to reposition our cost base and drive operating efficiencies resulted in pretax margin expansion of 50 basis points despite a headwind from mix.

我們重新定位成本基礎和提高運營效率的行動導致稅前利潤率擴大了 50 個基點，儘管受到組合的不利影響。

And so we had modest growth in our pretax income.

因此，我們的稅前收入略有增長。

Our tax rate was down, driven by a discrete benefit in the quarter.

在本季度的一項離散收益的推動下，我們的稅率有所下降。

And finally, a lower share count contributed to growth.

最後，較低的份額數量有助於增長。

Putting it all together, our operating EPS was up 5%.

綜上所述，我們的經營每股收益增長了 5%。

Year-to-date through September, our operating EPS is also up 5%., and you can see on this chart the contributors to earnings per share growth, consistent with how we presented it over the last 3 quarters.

從年初至今到 9 月，我們的經營每股收益也增長了 5%，您可以在這張圖表上看到每股收益增長的貢獻者，這與我們在過去 3 個季度中呈現的方式一致。

Looking at our underlying profit and cash metrics.

查看我們的基本利潤和現金指標。

As I said, our gross margin was flat compared to last year, which is an improvement in the year-to-year trajectory.

正如我所說，我們的毛利率與去年相比持平，這是同比軌蹟的改善。

We had solid gross margin improvement in the services segments, together up 160 basis points.

我們在服務領域的毛利率穩步提高，共上升 160 個基點。

And as I talked about last quarter, in services, which is a human-capital-based business, value is instantiated in gross margin.

正如我在上個季度談到的那樣，在以人力資本為基礎的服務業中，價值體現在毛利率中。

This was offset by the mix headwinds we discussed 90 days ago in z14 mainframe and software.

這被我們 90 天前在 z14 大型機和軟件中討論的混合不利因素所抵消。

Our operating expense was down 4% year-to-year with half due to currency and half due to the base operational performance.

我們的運營費用同比下降 4%，其中一半是由於貨幣，一半是由於基本運營績效。

When currency hurts the top line, it generally helps the expense line due to both translation and the benefit of hedging contracts.

當貨幣損害收入時，由於換算和對沖合同的好處，它通常會幫助支出線。

The base expense reduction of 2 points was driven by operating efficiencies, including acquisition synergies.

基本費用減少 2 個百分點是由運營效率推動的，包括收購協同效應。

We deliver productivity across our business by using automation, leveraging agile processes and changing the way we work.

我們通過使用自動化、利用敏捷流程和改變我們的工作方式來提高整個企業的生產力。

This provides flexibility to increase investment to deliver innovations in areas like hybrid cloud, AI, cybersecurity and blockchain while also dropping some to the bottom line.

這為增加投資以在混合雲、人工智能、網絡安全和區塊鍊等領域提供創新提供了靈活性，同時也降低了一些利潤。

Within our expense decline, we also absorbed a lower level of IP income.

在我們的費用下降中，我們也吸收了較低水平的 IP 收入。

We expanded both operating pretax and net income margins, and net income was up 3%.

我們擴大了稅前營業利潤率和淨收入利潤率，淨收入增長了 3%。

Our operating tax rate was down 2 points from last year while our underlying rate of 16% is up slightly.

我們的營業稅率比去年下降了 2 個百分點，而我們 16% 的基本稅率略有上升。

As I said, the year-to-year dynamic is driven by a discrete benefit in the quarter.

正如我所說，同比動態是由本季度的離散收益驅動的。

Looking at our cash metrics.

查看我們的現金指標。

We generated $2.2 billion of free cash flow in the quarter and $5.4 billion through September, which is down year-to-year.

我們在本季度產生了 22 億美元的自由現金流，截至 9 月份產生了 54 億美元，同比下降。

As expected, our year-to-date decline is driven by a cash tax headwind and growth in CapEx.

正如預期的那樣，我們年初至今的下滑是由現金稅逆風和資本支出增長推動的。

As always, trailing 12 months is the best way to look at our cash flow performance.

一如既往，過去 12 個月是查看我們現金流量表現的最佳方式。

And on that basis, we generated $12.2 billion, which is 108% free cash flow realization.

在此基礎上，我們產生了 122 億美元，即 108% 的自由現金流實現。

We returned about 70% of that to shareholders while increasing our capital investment.

我們將其中約 70% 的資金返還給了股東，同時增加了資本投資。

Turning to our segments.

轉向我們的細分市場。

Cognitive Solutions had $4.1 billion of revenue, which was down 5%.

認知解決方案的收入為 41 億美元，下降了 5%。

The segment is comprised of a broad set of offerings, so let me take a minute to break it down.

該細分市場由廣泛的產品組成，所以讓我花點時間來分解一下。

Solutions software includes offerings in strategic verticals like health, domain-specific capabilities like analytics and security as well as our emerging technologies of AI and blockchain.

解決方案軟件包括戰略垂直領域的產品，如健康、特定領域的功能（如分析和安全）以及我們的人工智能和區塊鏈新興技術。

We had good performance across these areas this quarter, and I'll come back to these in a minute.

本季度我們在這些領域取得了良好的表現，我會在一分鐘內回到這些領域。

Solutions also includes offerings that address horizontal domains, and over the last 3 quarters, I've been talking about challenges in a few of these areas, specifically collaboration, commerce and talent, where we're dealing with secular shifts in the market.

解決方案還包括解決橫向領域的產品，在過去的 3 個季度中，我一直在談論其中一些領域的挑戰，特別是協作、商業和人才，我們正在應對市場的長期變化。

We've been taking actions, including modernizing our offerings, infusing AI and enhancing the digital experience.

我們一直在採取行動，包括使我們的產品現代化、注入人工智能和增強數字體驗。

While these 3 areas continue to weigh on the segment's overall performance, we've made some progress.

雖然這 3 個領域繼續影響該部門的整體表現，但我們已經取得了一些進展。

For example, in commerce, where we infused AI into offerings like customer experience analytics, SaaS signings grew double digits this quarter.

例如，在商業領域，我們將 AI 注入到客戶體驗分析等產品中，本季度 SaaS 簽約量增長了兩位數。

And in collaboration, we've had very positive reaction to the recent introduction of Notes Domino version 10, which is optimized for mobile and supports JavaScript and Node.js.

在協作中，我們對最近推出的 Notes Domino 版本 10 產生了非常積極的反應，該版本針對移動設備進行了優化並支持 JavaScript 和 Node.js。

So we're starting to see some green shoots, but because the time to value is longer in SaaS, we will start seeing this play out as we get into 2019.

所以我們開始看到一些萌芽，但由於 SaaS 的價值實現時間更長，我們將在進入 2019 年時開始看到這種情況。

Cognitive Solutions also includes transaction processing software.

認知解決方案還包括交易處理軟件。

This includes software that runs mission-critical workloads, leveraging our hardware platforms.

這包括利用我們的硬件平台運行關鍵任務工作負載的軟件。

While much of the revenue is annuity based, in any quarter, the performance reflects the timing of larger transactions that are tied to client-buying cycles.

雖然大部分收入是基於年金的，但在任何一個季度，業績都反映了與客戶購買週期相關的較大交易的時間。

We have a good pipeline in transaction processing software as we enter the fourth quarter, which supports a return to growth.

進入第四季度時，我們在交易處理軟件方面擁有良好的渠道，支持恢復增長。

So now let me turn back to a few of our high-value areas where we continue to scale new platforms and high-value solutions.

所以現在讓我回到我們繼續擴展新平台和高價值解決方案的一些高價值領域。

This quarter, we had growth in industry verticals like health, key areas of analytics and security.

本季度，我們在健康、分析和安全等關鍵領域的垂直行業取得了增長。

In Watson Health, where we've been infusing AI the longest, we had broad-based growth, including in payer, provider, imaging and life sciences.

在 Watson Health，我們注入 AI 的時間最長，我們實現了廣泛的增長，包括支付方、供應商、成像和生命科學。

In the area of life sciences, we've been working with Medtronic to leverage data and apply intelligence into their glucose monitors.

在生命科學領域，我們一直在與美敦力合作，利用數據並將智能應用到他們的血糖監測儀中。

In June, the Sugar.

六月，糖。

IQ app with Medtronic went live, and initial demand and patient results are very strong.

與美敦力合作的 IQ 應用程序上線，初始需求和患者結果非常強勁。

In our underlying analytics platform, we had growth in our data science and IBM Cloud Private for data offerings.

在我們的底層分析平台中，我們在數據科學和 IBM Cloud Private 數據產品方面取得了增長。

We continue to invest in advancing data and AI.

我們繼續投資於推進數據和人工智能。

We announced bias detection services and introduced new Watson services on the IBM Cloud Private platform as clients seek the benefits of AI and the cloud behind their firewall.

我們宣布了偏差檢測服務，並在 IBM Cloud Private 平台上推出了新的 Watson 服務，因為客戶正在尋求 AI 和防火牆後的雲的優勢。

Security growth in the quarter was led by offerings in orchestration, data security and endpoint management.

本季度的安全增長是由編排、數據安全和端點管理方面的產品帶動的。

Our momentum is driven by our unique market position, comprehensive integrated portfolio and differentiation with AI.

我們的動力來自於我們獨特的市場地位、全面的集成產品組合和人工智能的差異化。

In the emerging area of blockchain, this quarter, our IBM Food Trust network for food safety went live, and Carrefour, one of the world's leading retailers, joined the network.

在區塊鏈這一新興領域，本季度，我們的 IBM Food Trust 食品安全網絡上線，全球領先的零售商之一家樂福也加入了該網絡。

We also jointly announced TradeLens with Maersk.

我們還與馬士基聯合發布了 TradeLens。

Together, we will apply blockchain technologies to address inefficiencies in the global supply chain and signed up over 50 ecosystem participants.

我們將共同應用區塊鏈技術解決全球供應鏈中的低效率問題，並與 50 多個生態系統參與者簽約。

And we now have over 75 active blockchain networks.

我們現在擁有超過 75 個活躍的區塊鍊網絡。

Looking at profit this quarter, we expanded pretax margin by over 1 point year-to-year.

從本季度的利潤來看，我們的稅前利潤率同比增長超過 1 個百分點。

This was driven by operational efficiencies, including acquisition synergies while continuing to invest at high levels in key strategic areas.

這是由運營效率推動的，包括收購協同效應，同時繼續在關鍵戰略領域進行高水平投資。

Looking at services.

看服務。

Our Global Business Services revenue grew 3%, building on the progress from first half.

基於上半年的進展，我們的全球商業服務收入增長了 3%。

Consulting revenue growth accelerated to 7%, led by strength in offerings within the digital strategy and iX as well as cognitive process transformation.

諮詢收入增長加速至 7%，這得益於數字戰略和 iX 以及認知流程轉型中的產品優勢。

And in application management, a decline in traditional enterprise application managed services is being mitigated by the continued strength in areas such as Cloud Migration Factory and cloud application development.

在應用程序管理方面，雲遷移工廠和雲應用程序開發等領域的持續增長正在緩解傳統企業應用程序託管服務的下滑。

Our consulting performance reflects the fact that enterprises are undergoing a digital transformation and reinvention, leveraging technology to transform the way they operate, to attract the best talent and to improve engagements with their customers.

我們的諮詢業績反映了這樣一個事實，即企業正在經歷數字化轉型和重塑，利用技術改變他們的運營方式，吸引最優秀的人才並改善與客戶的互動。

Customers are turning to GBS as we are uniquely positioned to infuse IBM's leading-edge technology and partnerships with our industry expertise to enable clients' digital transformation.

客戶正在轉向 GBS，因為我們具有獨特的優勢，可以將 IBM 的領先技術和合作夥伴關係與我們的行業專業知識相結合，以實現客戶的數字化轉型。

For example, we are partnering with Sally Beauty to provide an innovative digital and in-store customer experience, influenced by deep understanding of the brand, consumer and retail industry.

例如，我們與 Sally Beauty 合作，在對品牌、消費者和零售行業的深刻理解的影響下，提供創新的數字和店內客戶體驗。

We are creating virtual assistants for Lloyds Banking Group to enhance the way they communicate with and serve customers.

我們正在為 Lloyds Banking Group 創建虛擬助手，以加強他們與客戶溝通和服務的方式。

And at the U.S. Open, GBS provided the digital fan experience, which included several innovative features.

在美國公開賽上，GBS 提供了數字球迷體驗，其中包括多項創新功能。

AI Highlights enabled the tournament's digital team to view and find the most exciting shot of the day or match for distribution, and the AI-powered virtual concierge answered fans' questions on a range of topics.

AI Highlights 使錦標賽的數字團隊能夠查看和找到當天最精彩的鏡頭或比賽進行分發，而由 AI 驅動的虛擬禮賓回答了球迷關於一系列主題的問題。

Turning to gross profit.

轉向毛利。

GBS gross margin expanded 270 basis points year-to-year.

GBS 毛利率同比增長 270 個基點。

We are shifting our revenue mix towards higher-value offerings such as digital and cognitive and capturing that price for value.

我們正在將我們的收入組合轉向數字和認知等更高價值的產品，並以價格換取價值。

Additionally, we have aligned our resources to key skill areas and are seeing productivity and utilization benefits.

此外，我們已將我們的資源與關鍵技能領域相結合，並看到了生產力和利用率的好處。

Putting it all together, GBS delivered a solid quarter.

綜上所述，GBS 交付了一個穩定的季度。

They are executing well and delivering value to clients in key strategic areas.

他們執行良好，並在關鍵戰略領域為客戶創造價值。

In Technology Services & Cloud Platforms, we delivered $8.3 billion of revenue and grew for the second consecutive quarter.

在技術服務和雲平台方面，我們實現了 83 億美元的收入，並且連續第二個季度實現增長。

Growth was led by hybrid cloud implementations with cloud revenue up 22%, and we exited the quarter with a $7.5 billion as-a-service annual run rate.

增長是由混合雲實施帶動的，雲收入增長了 22%，我們以 75 億美元的即服務年運行率結束了本季度。

This reflects IBM's differentiated value proposition to address cloud for the enterprise.

這反映了 IBM 為企業解決雲問題的差異化價值主張。

As I said earlier, clients are early in their cloud journey and their needs are evolving.

正如我之前所說，客戶處於雲之旅的早期，他們的需求在不斷變化。

Initial cloud projects focus on the productivity economics of renting IT infrastructure at scale.

最初的雲項目側重於大規模租用 IT 基礎設施的生產力經濟性。

More and more, however, clients want to move beyond that model and start to shift mission-critical business processes and apps to the cloud.

然而，越來越多的客戶希望超越該模型，開始將關鍵任務業務流程和應用程序轉移到雲端。

They recognize that cloud can help drive real business value in those processes, launch new applications rapidly and enter new markets.

他們認識到雲可以幫助在這些流程中推動真正的商業價值，快速推出新應用程序並進入新市場。

And this all needs to be optimized across public, private and on-prem, where many of the workloads will remain.

這一切都需要在公共、私有和內部部署中進行優化，其中許多工作負載將保留下來。

This is why IBM's approach to cloud is hybrid, secure and open.

這就是為什麼 IBM 的雲方法是混合的、安全的和開放的。

I mentioned our announcements yesterday.

我昨天提到了我們的公告。

It's important to note that we are bringing new, open and interoperable approaches to cloud.

值得注意的是，我們正在為雲帶來新的、開放的和可互操作的方法。

This is consistent with our heritage as a leader in open standards and governance.

這與我們作為開放標準和治理領域領導者的傳統是一致的。

From the early days of Linux and Java to Kubernetes and Hyperledger for Blockchain, we're bringing the same open approach to the cloud and AI, which will also help clients overcome the complexity of proprietary technology and vendor lock-in.

從早期的 Linux 和 Java 到用於區塊鏈的 Kubernetes 和 Hyperledger，我們正在為雲和 AI 帶來同樣的開放方法，這也將幫助客戶克服專有技術和供應商鎖定的複雜性。

Within this segment, we see results of this shift in infrastructure services and integration software, with strong cloud performance contributing to revenue growth in both of these areas.

在這一細分市場中，我們看到了基礎設施服務和集成軟件轉變的結果，強大的雲性能為這兩個領域的收入增長做出了貢獻。

I mentioned earlier the strong adoption of IBM Cloud Private with 95 new companies alone this quarter around the globe.

我之前提到過，僅本季度全球就有 95 家新公司大力採用 IBM Cloud Private。

For example, AFLAC in Japan is trusting IBM Cloud to help speed the development of new business products and services.

例如，日本的 AFLAC 信任 IBM Cloud 來幫助加快新業務產品和服務的開發。

Brazil's Fidelity National Information Services, a global leader in payment processing solutions, has adopted IBM Cloud Private to help streamline credit card chargebacks for its Brazilian operations.

巴西的 Fidelity National Information Services 是支付處理解決方案的全球領導者，它已採用 IBM Cloud Private 來幫助簡化其巴西業務的信用卡拒付。

And CNH Industrial, a leader in the capital goods sector, will use IBM Cloud Private and Watson artificial intelligence to transform its business processes across manufacturing, supply chain, sales and marketing and financial services.

資本貨物領域的領導者 CNH Industrial 將使用 IBM Cloud Private 和 Watson 人工智能來轉變其在製造、供應鏈、銷售和營銷以及金融服務方面的業務流程。

And now turning to technical support services, revenue was down 3%, which is a modest sequential improvement from second quarter.

現在轉向技術支持服務，收入下降了 3%，與第二季度相比環比有所改善。

Similar to last quarter, this area continues to be impacted by the dynamics of our hardware product cycle, moderated by continued growth in our core multi-vendor services offerings.

與上一季度類似，這一領域繼續受到我們硬件產品週期動態的影響，並受到我們核心多供應商服務產品持續增長的影響。

Moving on to gross profit for the segment, margin expanded 120 basis points.

轉向該部門的毛利潤，利潤率擴大了 120 個基點。

This improvement was driven by scale efficiencies in our cloud business as well as a lift in our productivity initiatives.

這種改進是由我們的雲業務的規模效率以及我們的生產力計劃的提升推動的。

As we continue to drive value in Technology Services & Cloud Platforms, we are making investments to capitalize on the shifts to cloud by adding capacity and expanding our data center footprint around the world as well as expanding our go-to-market capabilities to capture the opportunity in hybrid.

隨著我們繼續推動技術服務和雲平台的價值，我們正在進行投資，通過增加容量和擴大我們在全球的數據中心足跡以及擴大我們的上市能力來抓住向雲的轉變混合機會。

We're also investing in development to drive hybrid cloud innovation.

我們還在投資開發以推動混合雲創新。

That means both private and public technologies.

這意味著私人和公共技術。

You see this in the introduction of IBM Multicloud Manager and AI OpenScale.

您可以在 IBM Multicloud Manager 和 AI OpenScale 的介紹中看到這一點。

And we're also adding functionality and enhancements to IBM Cloud Private and IBM Cloud.

我們還為 IBM Cloud Private 和 IBM Cloud 添加了功能和增強功能。

Before moving onto systems, let me give you some perspective on our combined services business.

在進入系統之前，讓我向您介紹一下我們的綜合服務業務。

As we entered the year, we saw improved revenue from opening backlog, which pointed to an improving revenue trajectory.

當我們進入這一年時，我們看到未結訂單積壓帶來的收入有所改善，這表明收入軌跡正在改善。

And the actions we've been taking to remix our offerings to higher value, improve price realization and drive productivity and workforce optimization, combined with scale efficiencies in the cloud, are designed to improve gross profit performance, which in a human-capital-based business is where the value is instantiated.

我們一直在採取行動，將我們的產品重新組合為更高的價值，提高價格實現，推動生產力和勞動力優化，結合雲中的規模效率，旨在提高毛利潤績效，這在基於人力資本的業務是值被實例化的地方。

In the third quarter, for services, the revenue trajectory and gross margins continued to improve with combined revenue up 1% and gross margins expanding 160 basis points.

第三季度，在服務方面，收入軌跡和毛利率繼續改善，合併收入增長 1%，毛利率擴大 160 個基點。

In Systems, we grew revenue again this quarter, driven by a combination of a strong z14 and newly introduced POWER9 adoption.

在系統方面，本季度我們的收入再次增長，這得益於強大的 z14 和新引入的 POWER9 採用的結合。

This quarter, IBM Z revenue grew 6% year-to-year on 20% MIPS growth, and margins expanded.

本季度，IBM Z 收入同比增長 6%，MIPS 增長 20%，利潤率有所擴大。

The z14 program continued to track ahead the prior cycle, and in fact, program to date in terms of shift capacity is the most successful in our platform's long history.

z14 計劃繼續領先於前一個週期，事實上，迄今為止，就轉移能力而言，該計劃是我們平台悠久歷史中最成功的。

The z14's pervasive encryption continues to be a key differentiator.

z14 的普遍加密仍然是一個關鍵的差異化因素。

For instance, governments are selecting z14 to protect their sensitive data, including a large U.S. government agency this quarter.

例如，政府選擇 z14 來保護他們的敏感數據，包括本季度的一家大型美國政府機構。

The z14 adoption spans many industries and countries.

z14 的採用跨越許多行業和國家。

And we added new clients to the platform again this quarter, including several new clients to our new single-frame z14, designed specifically for cloud environments.

本季度我們再次向該平台添加了新客戶，其中包括我們新的單框架 z14 的幾個新客戶，專為雲環境設計。

Our power revenue was up double digits, driven by strong growth in Linux and traction across our new POWER9-based architecture.

在 Linux 的強勁增長和我們基於 POWER9 的新架構的推動下，我們的電力收入增長了兩位數。

In the third quarter, we released our next-generation POWER9 processors for midrange and high-end systems, and we've seen strong adoption.

在第三季度，我們發布了用於中端和高端系統的下一代 POWER9 處理器，我們看到了廣泛的採用。

These systems are designed for handling advanced analytics, cloud environments and data-intensive workloads in AI, HANA and UNIX markets.

這些系統旨在處理 AI、HANA 和 UNIX 市場中的高級分析、雲環境和數據密集型工作負載。

We also introduced new offerings, optimizing both hardware and software for AI.

我們還推出了新產品，為 AI 優化了硬件和軟件。

Offerings such as PowerAI Vision, and PowerAI Enterprise will help drive new customer adoption.

PowerAI Vision 和 PowerAI Enterprise 等產品將有助於推動新客戶的採用。

And we continue to deploy our supercomputers at U.S. Department of Energy labs in the quarter.

我們在本季度繼續在美國能源部實驗室部署我們的超級計算機。

Storage hardware was down this quarter with declines in midrange and high-end mitigated by strong growth in all-flash arrays.

存儲硬件本季度出現下滑，全閃存陣列的強勁增長緩解了中端和高端的下滑。

Storage is an increasingly competitive environment with continued pricing pressures, so to differentiate in this environment requires additional investment in innovation.

存儲是一個競爭日益激烈的環境，價格壓力持續存在，因此要在這種環境中脫穎而出，需要對創新進行額外投資。

We've been releasing new functionality like Safeguarded Copy for cybersecurity to protect critical client data from cyberattack, and we signed our first large deployment of this technology with a major bank this quarter.

我們一直在發布新功能，例如用於網絡安全的受保護副本，以保護關鍵客戶數據免受網絡攻擊，並且本季度我們與一家大型銀行簽署了該技術的首次大規模部署。

And our new FlashSystems with next-generation MVME technology was announced earlier this quarter.

我們在本季度早些時候發布了採用下一代 MVME 技術的新型 FlashSystem。

We will continue to roll out MVME across the portfolio.

我們將繼續在整個產品組合中推出 MVME。

Turning to profit.

轉為盈利。

Systems pretax margin was down over 6 points, reflecting a mix headwind and lower level of IP income and ongoing investment to drive innovation across the brands.

系統稅前利潤率下降超過 6 個百分點，反映出混合不利因素和較低水平的 IP 收入以及為推動跨品牌創新而進行的持續投資。

Turning to cash flow and balance sheet in the quarter.

轉向本季度的現金流量和資產負債表。

We generated $3.1 billion of cash from operations, excluding our financing receivables and $2.2 billion of free cash flow.

我們從運營中產生了 31 億美元的現金，不包括我們的融資應收賬款和 22 億美元的自由現金流。

This brings our year-to-date free cash flow to $5.4 billion, which is down $800 million year-to-year.

這使我們年初至今的自由現金流達到 54 億美元，同比下降 8 億美元。

The decline is driven by a combination of higher capital expenditures and cash taxes.

這一下降是由更高的資本支出和現金稅共同推動的。

You'll recall at the beginning of the year, we said we expected 3 headwinds to our free cash flow growth this year: higher CapEx, higher cash taxes and our strong working capital performance at the end of last year driven by the IBM Z introduction.

您會記得在今年年初，我們曾表示預計今年我們的自由現金流增長將面臨 3 個不利因素：更高的資本支出、更高的現金稅以及去年底在 IBM Z 推出的推動下我們強勁的營運資本表現.

The combined impact from cash taxes and capital investments is in line with what we expected at this point, though we spent a little more on CapEx and a little less on cash taxes.

現金稅和資本投資的綜合影響符合我們目前的預期，儘管我們在資本支出上的支出多一點，在現金稅上的支出少一點。

Looking at uses of cash.

查看現金的用途。

Over the last 3 quarters, we returned $6.6 billion to our shareholders, including $4.2 billion in dividends.

在過去三個季度，我們向股東返還了 66 億美元，其中包括 42 億美元的股息。

And we bought back 16 million shares with $1.4 billion remaining in our buyback authorization at the end of September.

我們在 9 月底回購了 1600 萬股股票，回購授權中剩餘 14 億美元。

Looking at the balance sheet highlights.

查看資產負債表亮點。

We ended September with $14.7 billion in cash and non-financing debt of about $16.5 billion.

截至 9 月末，我們擁有 147 億美元的現金和約 165 億美元的非融資債務。

We have just over $30 billion of debt in support of our financing business, which continues to be leveraged at 9:1.

我們有剛剛超過 300 億美元的債務來支持我們的融資業務，該業務的槓桿率繼續保持在 9:1。

Our financing portfolio remains strong at 55% investment grade.

我們的融資組合保持強勁，投資級別為 55%。

That's 1 point better than December and 2 points better than a year ago.

這比 12 月好 1 個百分點，比一年前好 2 個百分點。

So I'm confident in the strength of our balance sheet.

所以我對我們資產負債表的實力充滿信心。

We've got plenty of flexibility to continue to invest while returning value to our shareholders as evidenced by 23 consecutive years of dividend increases.

我們有足夠的靈活性繼續投資，同時為我們的股東回報價值，連續 23 年的股息增長就是證明。

So let me wrap it up.

所以讓我總結一下。

Our performance through the first 3 quarters reflects the investments we've been making over the last couple years and actions to reposition the business.

我們前 3 個季度的業績反映了我們在過去幾年中進行的投資以及重新定位業務的行動。

We've been rebuilding our innovation pipeline to address what our enterprise clients value in an IT industry that has been rapidly reordering technologies like AI, blockchain, cybersecurity delivered in hybrid cloud environments.

我們一直在重建我們的創新管道，以解決我們的企業客戶在 IT 行業中的價值，該行業一直在快速重新排序混合雲環境中交付的 AI、區塊鏈、網絡安全等技術。

And we've taken actions to further align our skill base to this opportunity and to drive operating efficiencies.

我們已採取行動進一步調整我們的技能基礎以適應這一機會並提高運營效率。

And so now on a year-to-date basis, our revenue is up, our gross margin trajectory has been improving and in the third quarter, was flat year-to-year.

因此，從年初至今，我們的收入增加了，我們的毛利率軌跡一直在改善，並且在第三季度與去年同期持平。

Our operating profit is up modestly, and we returned a lot of value to shareholders.

我們的營業利潤小幅增長，我們為股東回報了很多價值。

These all reinforce the fact that we're a high-value company.

這些都強化了我們是一家高價值公司的事實。

As we look forward, as always, there's more work to do, and the fourth quarter seasonally has a large transaction base.

正如我們所期待的，一如既往，還有更多的工作要做，而且第四季度季節性交易基數很大。

But with the performance in the first 3 quarters and our focus on consistent operational execution, we continue to expect to deliver at least $13.80 of operating earnings per share.

但憑藉前 3 季度的業績以及我們對一致運營執行的關注，我們繼續預計每股運營收益至少為 13.80 美元。

Regarding our free cash flow with the headwinds we expected in cash taxes and capital expenditures largely behind us, we are maintaining our view of about $12 billion of free cash flow for the year, which is over 100% realization.

關於我們的自由現金流，我們預計在現金稅和資本支出方面的逆風基本已經過去，我們維持我們對今年約 120 億美元自由現金流的看法，實現率超過 100%。

And with that, let me turn it back to Patricia, so we can get started on Q&A.

說到這裡，讓我把它轉回給帕特里夏，這樣我們就可以開始問答環節了。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items.

在我們開始問答之前，我想提幾個問題。

First, we have supplemental charts at the end of the slide deck that provide additional information on the quarter.

首先，我們在幻燈片的末尾有補充圖表，提供有關本季度的更多信息。

And second, I'd ask you to refrain from multiple questions and multipart questions so that we can make the best use of the time we have today.

其次，我希望大家不要提出多個問題和多部分問題，這樣我們才能充分利用今天的時間。

So operator, let's please open it up for questions.

那麼接線員，讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Amit Daryanani from RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Amit Daryanani。

Jim, I guess, when I think about this quarter, there were multiple crosscurrents that IBM dealt with across the portfolio.

吉姆，我想，當我想到這個季度時，IBM 在整個產品組合中處理了多個交叉流。

So I guess, it will be helpful just to hear how you would characterize IBM's performance in September quarter versus what you guys were expecting 90 days ago and importantly, the sustainability of some of the trends that you're seeing, especially on gross margins, which were flat on a very difficult compare, I think, it was last year, and then on the other hand yet, cognitive was down somewhat more than I thought.

所以我想，聽聽你們如何描述 IBM 在 9 月季度的表現與你們 90 天前的預期相比，重要的是，你們所看到的一些趨勢的可持續性，尤其是毛利率，將會很有幫助，這是一個非常困難的比較持平，我想，那是去年，但另一方面，認知下降的程度比我想像的要多。

So if you could maybe just characterize the performance and sustainability of some of these trends versus what you thought 90 days ago, that will be really helpful for us.

因此，如果您可以將其中一些趨勢的表現和可持續性與您 90 天前的想法進行比較，那將對我們非常有幫助。

Okay, thanks, Amit, and it's a good place to start here talking about the characterization of our quarter now that we're through 3 quarters of 2018.

好的，謝謝，阿米特，現在我們已經過了 2018 年的第 3 個季度，這是一個開始討論我們季度特徵的好地方。

But I guess, from my perspective, I would say, first, we had a solid quarter.

但我想，從我的角度來看，我會說，首先，我們有一個穩定的季度。

We delivered $18.8 billion of revenue, which was consistent with our guidance of a typical quarter-to-quarter seasonality even in light of a strengthening U.S. dollar, which continues to go against us.

我們實現了 188 億美元的收入，這與我們對典型的季度季節性的指導一致，即使美元走強繼續對我們不利。

But the headline overall would be, we fundamentally have taken the actions to reposition our business entering 2018, and you see that play out as we enter the second half where we grew operating profit, we expanded operating pretax margin by 50 basis points, we grew EPS 5% consistent with the first half and we continue to drive strong free cash flow realization to deliver value back to our shareholders.

但總的來說，我們已經從根本上採取行動重新定位我們進入 2018 年的業務，你會看到隨著我們進入下半年我們的營業利潤增長，我們將營業稅前利潤率提高了 50 個基點，我們增長了每股收益 5% 與上半年一致，我們繼續推動強勁的自由現金流實現，為股東創造價值。

Now some of the underpinnings behind that: One, we still see strong demand in key high-value segments, and you see that play out in our third quarter performance, and we think that will continue moving forward, areas like hybrid cloud where we're winning with our hybrid cloud value proposition in the marketplace; data and AI, security, digital.

現在，這背後的一些基礎是：第一，我們仍然看到關鍵高價值領域的強勁需求，你會看到我們第三季度的業績表現出來，我們認為這種情況將繼續向前發展，比如我們在混合雲等領域憑藉我們在市場上的混合雲價值主張重新贏得勝利；數據和人工智能、安全、數字。

All of these are instantiated in our strategic imperatives, which now from a trailing 12-month perspective, we're at $39.5 billion, pretty close to that $40 billion target that we put in place well over 3 years ago when the IBM company had less than 25% of its portfolio in strategic imperatives.

所有這些都體現在我們的戰略要求中，現在從過去 12 個月的角度來看，我們的收入為 395 億美元，非常接近我們在 3 年前製定的 400 億美元目標，當時 IBM 公司的收入較少超過 25% 的投資組合屬於戰略要務。

Today, we're roughly at 50%.

今天，我們大約是 50%。

That's a massive transformation over a period of time.

這是一段時間內的巨大轉變。

And that's led to significant improvement in trajectory of our revenue growth overall, whereas year-to-date we're up 2%.

這導致我們整體收入增長軌跡顯著改善，而今年迄今為止我們增長了 2%。

But underneath that, you see some of the areas of growth around cloud, $19 billion, growing 20%.

但在此之下，您會看到圍繞雲的一些增長領域，190 億美元，增長 20%。

And within that, it's being driven by our high-value as-a-service content driving our cloud component.

其中，它是由我們的高價值即服務內容驅動的，該內容驅動我們的雲組件。

That's up now to $11.4 billion on an annualized exit run rate growing consistently at 24%.

年化退出率以 24% 的速度持續增長，目前已達到 114 億美元。

But if you put all that together, yes, we're seeing the underlying fundamental shifts of our top line.

但如果你把所有這些放在一起，是的，我們看到了我們收入的根本性轉變。

We've done the tough work to transform our portfolio.

我們已經完成了艱鉅的工作來轉變我們的產品組合。

But really, what I would call as an inflection point as we enter the second half of the year is what's happening with our operating leverage.

但實際上，當我們進入下半年時，我稱之為拐點的是我們的經營槓桿正在發生的事情。

And you see that play out in our gross margin performance, which is the best we've had year-to-year in over 3 years.

你會在我們的毛利率表現中看到這一點，這是我們 3 年來最好的年度表現。

Now let's talk a little bit about that because each of you as analysts and more importantly, as I go out and meet with many of our investors, it is a very critical signpost in a high-value-based business model.

現在讓我們談談這個，因為你們每個人都是分析師，更重要的是，當我出去會見我們的許多投資者時，這是基於高價值的商業模式的一個非常關鍵的路標。

And they've been talking about our gross margin performance and when are we going to stabilize and how are we going to get back to expansion towards our model.

他們一直在談論我們的毛利率表現，我們什麼時候會穩定下來，我們將如何回到我們的模式擴張。

And we talked about, as we entered the year, we knew we had headwinds coming into the second half predominantly around mix, mix around our successful mainframe launch, but also, mix is starting to hurt us from a currency perspective as we talked at length 90 days ago on how currency and the strengthening of dollar is actually hurting our product-based businesses in hardware and software, where you have a disconnect between your cost base, which is in U.S. dollars, versus your actual revenue in local currency.

我們談到，當我們進入這一年時，我們知道我們在下半年遇到了不利因素，主要是圍繞混合，圍繞我們成功的大型機發布進行混合，而且，當我們詳細討論時，從貨幣角度來看，混合開始傷害我們90 天前，關於貨幣和美元走強實際上如何損害我們基於產品的硬件和軟件業務，在這些業務中，您的成本基礎（以美元計）與以當地貨幣計的實際收入之間存在脫節。

So we knew that headwind.

所以我們知道逆風。

And now what we've been able to do is we've been able to reposition our services base of businesses.

現在我們能夠做的是我們能夠重新定位我們的業務服務基礎。

And you see not only did we return both units back to growth.

你看，我們不僅讓兩個部門都恢復了增長。

We actually delivered 160 basis points of margin improvement year-over-year.

我們實際上實現了 160 個基點的利潤率同比增長。

That's the best year-over-year in our services business in over 5 years.

這是我們服務業務 5 年來最好的同比增長。

And we see that continuing, and we expect that to continue to accelerate as we move into fourth quarter.

我們看到這種情況仍在繼續，我們預計隨著我們進入第四季度，這種情況將繼續加速。

So you combine that margin with our continued enterprise productivity, and you see that we're able to deliver strong operating pretax margins, and you couple that with our strong free cash flow with -- on a trailing 12 months is still in excess of $12 billion and a free cash flow realization over 100%, and that gives us confidence to reaffirm our expectation of at least $13.80.

因此，您將這一利潤率與我們持續的企業生產力結合起來，您會發現我們能夠提供強勁的稅前營業利潤率，並且您將其與我們強勁的自由現金流相結合——在過去的 12 個月中仍然超過 12 美元億美元和超過 100% 的自由現金流實現，這讓我們有信心重申我們至少 13.80 美元的預期。

Our next question is from Katy Huberty from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty。

I want to get your early thoughts as you think about planning for next year, in particular because you faced a number of headwinds.

當您考慮明年的計劃時，我想了解您的早期想法，特別是因為您面臨許多不利因素。

Services backlog is down.

服務積壓減少。

The mainframe comps get more difficult.

大型機比較變得更加困難。

The dollar is strong, question of what tariffs do to demand.

美元堅挺，問題是關稅對需求有何影響。

And so in the context of all those headwinds, can you talk about what some of the offsets are as you start to plan for 2019, whether there is the potential to continue to grow PTI as you go into next year even as some of these headwinds build.

因此，在所有這些不利因素的背景下，您能否談談您開始為 2019 年制定計劃時的一些抵消措施，即使其中一些不利因素，您是否有可能在進入明年時繼續增長 PTI建造。

Sure, Katy.

當然，凱蒂。

Thank you very much for the question.

非常感謝你的提問。

Obviously, we still got a lot of work to do.

顯然，我們還有很多工作要做。

We're 16 days in to a very important fourth quarter.

距離非常重要的第四季度還有 16 天。

We are focused on delivering consistent operational performance to deliver value for our clients in the marketplace and also for our shareholders.

我們專注於提供一致的運營績效，為我們的市場客戶和我們的股東創造價值。

So with that said, we'll give updates on guidance in January.

因此，話雖如此，我們將在 1 月份更新指導意見。

But let me give you -- to your point, let me give you kind of what we see as a trajectory of our business in the connotation of a headwind, tailwind as we move forward.

但是讓我給你 - 就你的觀點而言，讓我給你一些我們認為我們業務的軌跡，在我們前進的逆風，順風的內涵中。

So let me first start with services.

因此，讓我首先從服務開始。

You see, as we entered 2018, we talked about we had a much better position on our backlog near-term runout, and you've seen that play out throughout 2018.

你看，當我們進入 2018 年時，我們談到我們在積壓的近期耗盡方面處於更好的位置，你已經看到整個 2018 年都在發揮作用。

And I think that's a culmination of us taking some very bold actions about repositioning our services business and capitalizing on a differentiated services model, services practices and services value propositions to capture the growth in digital, cognitive and cloud.

我認為這是我們採取一些非常大膽的行動重新定位我們的服務業務並利用差異化服務模型、服務實踐和服務價值主張來捕捉數字、認知和雲的增長的結果。

And we see great momentum in our GBS base of business, both on top line and on bottom line as we move forward.

隨著我們向前發展，我們在我們的 GBS 業務基礎上看到了巨大的發展勢頭，無論是在頂線還是在底線。

In our GTS business, again, we continue to make progress, see acceleration in revenue through the third quarter.

在我們的 GTS 業務中，我們再次取得進展，看到第三季度收入加速增長。

We are leveraging our differentiated hybrid cloud value proposition.

我們正在利用我們差異化的混合雲價值主張。

Our clients value our incumbency.

我們的客戶重視我們的職責。

They value it because we understand their infrastructure, their workloads, and they trust us to move them to the future.

他們重視它，因為我們了解他們的基礎設施、他們的工作量，並且他們相信我們可以將他們推向未來。

And we talked about in the beginning of the year, when you look at our outsourcing backlog, we were hovering around 25% of a $90 billion outsourcing backlog.

我們在年初談到過，當您查看我們的外包積壓訂單時，我們徘徊在 900 億美元外包積壓訂單的 25% 左右。

Well, right now exiting third quarter, that $90 billion backlog, give or take, we are now in about 32%, 35% cloud content.

好吧，現在退出第三季度，那 900 億美元的積壓，無論給予還是接受，我們現在大約有 32%、35% 的雲內容。

So we are winning in the marketplace, and our clients are choosing us to move them to the future.

因此，我們在市場上取勝，我們的客戶選擇我們來推動他們走向未來。

So I continue to see both of our services business.

所以我繼續看到我們的服務業務。

Now with that said, we got a big fourth quarter on signings.

話雖如此，我們在第四季度的簽約數量很大。

We fell short in third quarter on signings, and as you know, signings can vary.

我們在第三季度的引援方面表現不佳，如你所知，引援可能會有所不同。

And really, all signings are not equal.

事實上，並非所有的簽約都是平等的。

The reality is the duration, the mix of signings and also new logo versus just extensions, all can impact overall.

事實上，持續時間、簽約組合以及新標誌與只是延期，都會對整體產生影響。

But when we look at our fourth quarter, we got the strongest lineup and greater than $100 million deals lined up that we've got a chance to exit the year with a very strong position in our services base of business.

但是當我們回顧第四季度時，我們擁有最強大的陣容和超過 1 億美元的交易，我們有機會在我們的服務業務基礎中以非常強大的地位退出今年。

And when I couple that with our margin leverage that we're getting out of that business, once you get to revenue growth, you see the fundamental operating leverage, I definitely see that playing out into '19.

當我將其與我們正在退出該業務的保證金槓桿相結合時，一旦您獲得收入增長，您就會看到基本的運營槓桿，我肯定會看到它在 19 年發揮作用。

Now on systems, systems, as you talked about, we're into our fifth quarter on mainframe.

現在在系統上，系統，正如你所說的，我們進入了大型機的第五季度。

By the way, in terms of shipped MIPS, as I said in prepared remarks, this is the most successful mainframe program that we've ever had.

順便說一句，就已交付的 MIPS 而言，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，這是我們曾經擁有的最成功的大型機程序。

And we still grew in the third quarter, albeit mid-single digits.

我們在第三季度仍然增長，儘管是中等個位數。

Now we know we wrap on that in the fourth quarter, coming off of a 72% growth last year.

現在我們知道我們在第四季度結束了這一點，去年增長了 72%。

But you see the underlying innovation playing out in our systems portfolio as we rolled out our new POWER9 architecture and we grew nicely in the third quarter by 17%, if I remember correctly.

但是，當我們推出新的 POWER9 架構時，您會看到我們系統產品組合中的潛在創新正在發揮作用，如果我沒記錯的話，我們在第三季度增長了 17%。

And we see that continuing to play out.

我們看到這種情況繼續發生。

As we rolled out the midrange and high-end late in the third quarter, we see that playing out in fourth quarter and next year also.

當我們在第三季度末推出中端和高端產品時，我們會看到第四季度和明年也會發揮作用。

And we've got also innovations coming out in our all-flash systems in storage, which is where we're gaining share and winning in the marketplace.

我們的全閃存存儲系統也出現了創新，這是我們在市場上獲得份額和獲勝的地方。

So the innovation of continually modernizing those platforms and systems, power and storage, we should see some continued growth as we move into '19.

因此，隨著我們進入 19 世紀，不斷對這些平台和系統、電力和存儲進行現代化改造的創新，我們應該會看到一些持續的增長。

But we will wrap on some very tough compares in mainframe, which leads me to cognitive.

但是我們將在大型機中進行一些非常艱難的比較，這讓我想到了認知。

And we focused on cognitive throughout this year.

今年我們專注於認知。

One, in the third quarter, we dealt with some enterprise client-buying seasonality.

第一，在第三季度，我們處理了一些企業客戶購買的季節性問題。

And as I said earlier, that will come back in the fourth quarter just given where clients are at in their buying cycles about committing to the platform, but we've been dealing with some issues around our horizontal apps.

正如我之前所說，考慮到客戶在購買週期中對平台的承諾，這將在第四季度恢復，但我們一直在處理橫向應用程序周圍的一些問題。

And as I said, that's a function of the secular shift in client value and consumption models to as-a-service.

正如我所說，這是客戶價值和消費模式向即服務的長期轉變的結果。

And we'll see that play out as we get into '19 and throughout '19.

當我們進入 19 年和整個 19 年時，我們將看到這一點。

So our focus has been on the key high-value emerging areas of cognitive around our industry verticals and around our domains like security, blockchain, which we see great opportunity and we're very pleased with that portfolio overall.

因此，我們的重點一直放在圍繞我們的垂直行業和我們的安全、區塊鍊等領域的關鍵高價值新興認知領域，我們看到了巨大的機會，我們對整體投資組合感到非常滿意。

So kind of a posture around headwinds, tailwinds, but we'll give a lot more color as we get into January.

這是一種圍繞逆風、順風的姿態，但我們會在進入 1 月時提供更多顏色。

Next question is from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Toni Sacconaghi。

I was wondering if you could talk, Jim, a little bit about free cash flow for this year.

吉姆，我想知道你是否可以談談今年的自由現金流。

You mentioned that it will be greater than 100% of GAAP net income this year despite the fact that you have some headwinds and cash taxes and higher CapEx, and that number is higher than your longer-term guidance of 90% to 100% realization.

你提到今年將超過 GAAP 淨收入的 100%，儘管你有一些不利因素和現金稅以及更高的資本支出，而且這個數字高於你實現 90% 到 100% 的長期指導。

So I'm wondering if you can help us understand what are the positive tailwinds that you're seeing that are enabling free cash flow to be higher than 100% of GAAP net income.

所以我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解您所看到的使自由現金流高於 GAAP 淨收入的 100% 的積極順風是什麼。

And can you explicitly comment on what your expected cash, pension and retirement contributions are this year and whether receivables factoring will benefit your free cash flow and to what extent?

您能否明確評論您今年的預期現金、養老金和退休金供款是多少，應收賬款保理是否有利於您的自由現金流，以及在多大程度上？

Okay, Toni, thank you very much.

好的，托尼，非常感謝你。

And as always, many very good questions that you bring up, but I hope I can capture many of them.

和往常一樣，你提出了很多非常好的問題，但我希望我能抓住其中的許多問題。

If not, Patricia can get to all of you after the call.

如果沒有，Patricia 可以在通話後與你們所有人聯繫。

But first of all, let me start at the big picture, free cash flow as we entered 2018.

但首先，讓我從大局開始，即我們進入 2018 年時的自由現金流。

We entered 2018 coming off of a very strong fourth quarter in 2017 where we drew -- we actually contributed significant working capital efficiency through the launch of our mainframe product cycle.

進入 2018 年，我們在 2017 年第四季度表現非常強勁——我們實際上通過啟動大型機產品週期貢獻了顯著的營運資本效率。

And we said in our January call that we expected about $12 billion of free cash flow in 2018, and the drivers of that from 2017 were really going to be centered around, one, incremental cash taxes.

我們在 1 月份的電話會議中表示，我們預計 2018 年的自由現金流量約為 120 億美元，而從 2017 年開始的驅動因素實際上將集中在一個增量現金稅上。

That would be a headwind to us in '18.

在 18 年，這對我們來說是一個不利因素。

And by the way, that is playing out, and all of that is behind us now as we exit the third quarter.

順便說一下，這一切正在結束，當我們退出第三節時，所有這些都已經過去了。

Number two, that we work on a plan on driving that strong working capital efficiency with the introduction of our mainframe as we exit the fourth quarter of 2018, and that would be a headwind.

第二，我們正在製定一項計劃，在我們退出 2018 年第四季度時通過引入大型機來提高營運資本效率，這將是一個不利因素。

And then third, we said we were going to continue to invest in our business to capitalize on our innovation and differentiated value around our hybrid cloud.

第三，我們說我們將繼續投資於我們的業務，以利用我們圍繞混合雲的創新和差異化價值。

And we've continued to invest, actually invested more this year because we're seeing accelerated growth in our cloud overall.

我們一直在繼續投資，實際上今年投資更多，因為我們看到我們的雲整體增長加速。

Our CapEx is up, I think, year-to-date 21%.

我認為，我們的資本支出今年迄今增長了 21%。

So when you put those 3 headwinds in play, that's what you're seeing play out in our free cash flow through 9 months.

因此，當您將這 3 個不利因素發揮作用時，這就是您在 9 個月的自由現金流中看到的結果。

And by the way, we still feel comfortable and expect about $12 billion for the full year based on any metric I look at [in payment] wise, and our trailing 12 months is at $12.2 billion, et cetera.

順便說一句，我們仍然感到滿意，並根據我對 [支付] 明智的任何衡量標準預計全年約為 120 億美元，而我們過去 12 個月的收入為 122 億美元，等等。

Now let's get to free cash flow realization.

現在讓我們開始實現自由現金流。

First of all, as you know, appropriately so, we draw free cash flow realization compared to GAAP earnings and GAAP net income because we believe that's the best way of doing realization overall.

首先，如你所知，我們將自由現金流實現與 GAAP 收益和 GAAP 淨收入進行比較，因為我們認為這是實現整體實現的最佳方式。

And you know within that, you've got not only our core operating profit, but we got working capital efficiencies.

而且您知道，您不僅獲得了我們的核心營業利潤，而且獲得了營運資本效率。

You got CapEx.

你有資本支出。

You got tax.

你有稅。

You got pension.

你有養老金。

All of those can be variables in that free cash flow realization.

所有這些都可以成為自由現金流實現中的變量。

But if you look at the last couple years, we've seen positive impact to our stated goal of at least 90% free cash flow realization driven by working capital efficiency.

但如果你看看過去幾年，我們已經看到了對我們既定目標的積極影響，即在營運資本效率的推動下實現至少 90% 的自由現金流。

It's been driving that free cash flow above 100%, and then also tax and pension: tax, about 6 points; pension, a couple points year-over-year.

它一直在推動自由現金流超過 100%，然後還有稅收和養老金：稅收，大約 6 個百分點；養老金，同比增長幾個百分點。

So when you take a look at those pieces, we feel comfortable in 2018, looking at both our expectation for non-GAAP and our expectation for GAAP, that we will be well north of our realization here in 2018.

所以當你看看這些作品時，我們在 2018 年感到很舒服，看看我們對非 GAAP 的期望和我們對 GAAP 的期望，我們將在 2018 年實現我們的目標。

And on factoring -- I would tell you, our factoring, there's no difference from 2018.

在保理方面——我會告訴你，我們的保理與 2018 年沒有區別。

We use that appropriately as a risk mitigation strategy to manage credit, to manage concentration and collection risk overall.

我們將其適當地用作風險緩解策略來管理信貸，以全面管理集中度和收款風險。

And we'll continue to use that judiciously, but I wouldn't see any major change in that year-over-year.

我們將繼續明智地使用它，但我不會看到與去年同期相比有任何重大變化。

Next question is from Tien-tsin Huang from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-tsin Huang。

I'm sorry.

對不起。

Our next question is from Wamsi Mohan from Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美林證券的 Wamsi Mohan。

Jim, I was wondering if you can talk a little bit about the strategic imperative performance within cognitive, including the cloud revenues and as-a-service, both of which declined versus overall strategic imperative growth.

吉姆，我想知道你是否可以談談認知領域的戰略必要績效，包括雲收入和即服務，這兩者都與整體戰略必要增長相比有所下降。

Can you maybe talk about some of the puts and takes there and some color on what you think drove that client-buying seasonality that you mentioned to a prior question?

你能不能談談一些看跌期權和那裡的一些顏色，以及你認為驅動你提到的先前問題的客戶購買季節性的一些顏色？

And if I could, how do you think that some of these new announcements around AI OpenScale and multi-cloud could change the trajectory for cognitive and when?

如果可以的話，您認為圍繞 AI OpenScale 和多雲的一些新公告會如何改變認知的軌跡以及何時？

Okay, Wamsi, thank you very much for your questions.

好的，Wamsi，非常感謝你的提問。

There's a lot there to compact into one answer, but let me talk about strategic imperatives first, and then I'll get into cognitive next.

有很多東西可以壓縮成一個答案，但讓我先談談戰略要務，然後再談認知。

But let's put the strategic imperatives into perspective.

但是，讓我們正確看待戰略要務。

So as I stated on the call, trailing 12 months, $39.5 billion.

因此，正如我在電話會議上所說，過去 12 個月，395 億美元。

We talked about 3 years ago we put the signpost out there to hit $40 billion.

我們談到 3 年前我們把路標放在那里達到 400 億美元。

At that point in time, the IBM contribution was less than 1/4 of IBM's revenue.

當時，IBM 的貢獻還不到 IBM 收入的 1/4。

Now we're approaching 50%.

現在我們接近 50%。

We're growing in the mid-teens, 13% I think, if I remember correctly, over the trailing 12 months.

如果我沒記錯的話，在過去的 12 個月裡，我們的增長在十幾歲左右，我認為增長了 13%。

And that has lifted IBM's overall revenue growth as you've seen, year-to-date, we're growing 2% at the IBM level.

正如你所看到的，這提升了 IBM 的整體收入增長，今年迄今為止，我們在 IBM 層面增長了 2%。

But within that strategic imperatives, our cloud business, to your point, is at $19 billion right now, up 20%.

但在這一戰略要求下，我們的雲業務，就你而言，目前達到 190 億美元，增長 20%。

And the high-value as-a-service component underneath that is up 24%, consistent with where we've been in the first half of the year.

而其下的高價值即服務組件增長了 24%，與我們今年上半年的情況一致。

And I think that's an attestation to we are capturing the new and emerging workloads as the secular shift to as-a-service world is happening overall.

我認為這證明我們正在捕捉新興的工作負載，因為向服務世界的長期轉變正在全面發生。

Now when you take a look at our strategic imperatives, let's put this in perspective, where we were 90 days ago.

現在，當您審視我們的戰略要務時，讓我們從 90 天前的角度來看待這個問題。

We knew to hit that $40 billion that we needed to be at basically mid- to high single-digit growth in the second half.

我們知道要達到 400 億美元，我們需要在下半年實現基本上中高個位數的增長。

And we knew, similar to how we laid out our expectation for guidance, that we were going to wrap around the most successful mainframe product program that we've had in history.

我們知道，就像我們對指導的期望一樣，我們將完成我們歷史上最成功的大型機產品計劃。

So as we entered the second half, we knew we had to focus on driving that underlying high-value as-a-service content and continue to accelerate that to offset the impacts on that mainframe wraparound on product cycle.

因此，當我們進入下半年時，我們知道我們必須專注於推動潛在的高價值即服務內容，並繼續加速它以抵消大型機包裝對產品週期的影響。

And you see in the third quarter, our strategic imperatives basically accomplish that.

您會在第三季度看到，我們的戰略要務基本上實現了這一目標。

We did what we expected.

我們做了我們期望的。

So as we look going forward then in the fourth quarter, we have to repeat what we just did in the third quarter.

因此，當我們展望第四季度時，我們必須重複我們在第三季度所做的事情。

And the underlying acceleration in our base services businesses I talked about, the expectation as we have a great a pipeline lined up for our software entering the fourth quarter based on those buying cycle seasonality that impact us in third quarter, we do expect to hit the $40 billion at the end of the year.

我談到的基礎服務業務的潛在加速，由於我們有一個很好的管道，我們的軟件進入第四季度，根據那些在第三季度影響我們的購買週期季節性，我們確實希望達到年底時為 400 億美元。

And I'll remind you, when we set that $40 billion target in 2015, we've lost over $2 billion of revenue due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

我要提醒大家的是，當我們在 2015 年設定 400 億美元的目標時，由於美元走強，我們已經損失了超過 20 億美元的收入。

So you've seen what it's done to transform our portfolio.

所以你已經看到了它為轉變我們的產品組合所做的工作。

It's changed the mindset of how we run our company, how we allocate capital and investment, and you see how that's playing up with regards to the improved trajectory.

它改變了我們經營公司的方式、我們分配資本和投資的方式，你會看到這在改善軌跡方面是如何發揮作用的。

Now getting to cognitive, and I'll just talk about Cognitive SI because to be honest with you, it's a simple answer.

現在開始認知，我將只談論認知 SI，因為老實說，這是一個簡單的答案。

We talked about the last 90, 120 days about the challenges and headwinds we're facing with regards to our horizontal application areas of talent, collaboration and around Watson -- excuse me, marketing and commerce.

在過去的 90 天和 120 天裡，我們談到了我們在人才、協作和圍繞 Watson 的橫向應用領域所面臨的挑戰和逆風——對不起，市場營銷和商業。

We've been making progress, and I'll talk a little bit about that, but those 3 areas are still depressing our revenue.

我們一直在取得進展，我會稍微談一談，但這三個領域仍在壓低我們的收入。

And as you know, there are secular shifts to SaaS and consumption models.

如您所知，SaaS 和消費模式會發生長期轉變。

They hurt our as-a-service run rates.

它們損害了我們即服務的運行率。

So while we've been maintaining, rounding up and down $2 billion of an as-a-service for the last couple quarters, you're seeing strength in areas like security, in our industry verticals like health care, in blockchain and Watson.

因此，雖然我們在過去幾個季度一直在維護、上下舍入 20 億美元的即服務，但您會看到安全等領域、我們的垂直行業（如醫療保健）、區塊鍊和 Watson 等領域的實力。

But it's getting depressed by those 3 horizontal app areas, and that will not play out until that [time] to value throughout 2019.

但這 3 個水平應用程序領域正在使它變得沮喪，並且直到那個 [時間] 才會在整個 2019 年發揮價值。

Next question is from Tien-tsin Huang from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-tsin Huang。

Can you guys hear me now?

你們現在能聽到我說話嗎？

We can hear you now.

我們現在可以聽到你的聲音了。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

Don't know what happened.

不知道發生了什麼。

Just wanted to clarify, I guess, on the $13.80 -- at least $13.80, trying to better assess the "at least" in that comment and what's required or how much cushion there is on the transactional side to achieve your outlook because if we use $13.80, that suggests 4Q earnings looks like a little below consensus and below each of last 2 fourth quarters.

只是想澄清一下，我想，在 13.80 美元——至少 13.80 美元，試圖更好地評估該評論中的“至少”以及需要什麼或在交易方面有多少緩衝才能實現你的前景，因為如果我們使用13.80 美元，這表明第 4 季度收益看起來略低於市場預期，並且低於過去 2 個第四季度的每一個季度。

So just trying to understand the "at least" piece at this stage.

所以只是想在這個階段理解“至少”部分。

Sure, Tien-tsin, and thank you very much for the question.

當然，Tien-tsin，非常感謝你提出這個問題。

I think the -- a little bit below when you're doing the math, I mean, we just beat third quarter by $0.02.

我認為 - 當您進行數學計算時，我的意思是略低於第三季度 0.02 美元。

But let's put that aside right now.

但是讓我們現在把它放在一邊。

As always, when we take a look at our following quarter and most importantly for the year, and it's one and the same right now, we always have multiple scenarios, taking into account, one, the trajectory of our business and also the fundamentals in the operational indices that we see.

一如既往，當我們回顧下一個季度，最重要的是今年，現在都是一樣的，我們總是有多種情況，考慮到，一個，我們的業務軌跡以及我們看到的運營指數。

And all support our expectation of the at least $13.80 of earnings per share.

所有這些都支持我們對每股收益至少 13.80 美元的預期。

So if you put that in perspective, how are we entering fourth quarter?

因此，如果您正確看待這一點，我們將如何進入第四季度？

Well, if you look at the fundamentals of our business profile, through third quarter, we're growing revenue.

好吧，如果你看看我們業務概況的基本面，到第三季度，我們的收入正在增長。

We're growing operating profit.

我們的營業利潤正在增長。

We're growing earnings per share consistently, and we're still driving that strong free cash flow realization.

我們的每股收益一直在增長，而且我們仍在推動強勁的自由現金流實現。

So kind of let me walk down the I&E and give you a perspective, and again, there are multiple variables here, but the way we kind of see it triangulating each of these pieces.

因此，讓我走下 I&E，給你一個視角，這裡有多個變量，但我們看待它的方式是對每個部分進行三角測量。

First, on revenue.

首先，關於收入。

On revenue, as you've seen in our supplemental charts, the dollar continues to go against us and strengthen against foreign currencies.

在收入方面，正如您在我們的補充圖表中看到的那樣，美元繼續對我們不利並兌外幣走強。

And right now on revenue, we see about a 2-point currency headwind here in the fourth quarter, pretty consistent, by the way, with the third quarter.

現在就收入而言，我們在第四季度看到大約 2 個百分點的貨幣逆風，順便說一句，與第三季度非常一致。

But we would expect a normal historical quarter-to-quarter seasonality probably in the range of somewhere around 3 to 5 years of an average seasonality of 3Q to 4Q.

但我們預計正常的歷史季度季節性可能在 3 至 5 年左右的範圍內，平均季節性為 3Q 至 4Q。

But putting that in perspective, year-to-date growing at 2% and where we think fourth quarter can be, we continue to feel that we expect full year revenue at current spot rates that we will grow.

但從這個角度來看，年初至今的增長率為 2%，我們認為第四季度可能達到的水平，我們仍然認為我們預計全年收入將以目前的即期匯率增長。

And again, I'll make the statement, we've been saying that throughout the year.

再一次，我要聲明，我們一整年都在這麼說。

And from the trough of the U.S. dollar to FX, we've lost $1.5 billion of revenue since that period of time.

從美元到外彙的低谷，自那段時間以來我們已經損失了 15 億美元的收入。

But we still feel, based on the fundamentals in our underlying business, that we will see growth moving forward with regards to that content.

但我們仍然認為，基於我們基礎業務的基本面，我們將看到該內容方面的增長。

So now let's turn to margin.

那麼現在讓我們轉向保證金。

Margin though is where we made the most progress.

不過，保證金是我們取得最大進展的地方。

It is how you instantiate value.

這就是您實例化價值的方式。

And when you take a look at, again, 90 days ago, nothing's different.

當您再次查看 90 天前時，沒有什麼不同。

We expected a headwind on product mix, and now we're dealing with a headwind on currency with regards to our product-based businesses, and we're more than offsetting that with services.

我們預計產品組合會遇到逆風，現在我們正在應對基於產品的業務的貨幣逆風，而我們不僅僅通過服務來抵消這種逆風。

We delivered our best year-to-year margin performance in the third quarter led by services, up 160 basis points year-over-year.

我們在第三季度以服務為首，實現了最佳的同比利潤率表現，同比增長 160 個基點。

The tough work we've done around shift in the higher value, we're starting to see the realization in our margin on that.

我們圍繞更高價值的轉變所做的艱苦工作，我們開始看到我們的利潤率在這一點上的實現。

The momentum that we've got on our hybrid cloud value proposition, we're starting to see the scale efficiencies and the productivity benefits are playing out as we move forward.

我們在混合雲價值主張上的勢頭，我們開始看到規模效率和生產力優勢在我們前進的過程中發揮作用。

So when you take a look at margin, we see our margin continue to accelerate and approaching our model here in the fourth quarter.

因此，當您查看利潤率時，我們看到我們的利潤率在第四季度繼續加速並接近我們的模型。

And then you combine that with the work we have done about fundamentally changing the way we operate this company and our enterprise productivity.

然後你將它與我們所做的工作結合起來，從根本上改變我們經營這家公司的方式和我們的企業生產力。

I'm talking about things like embedding agile into all of our methodologies, transforming the way we work, embedding automation, AI, becoming a cognitive enterprise.

我說的是諸如將敏捷嵌入到我們所有的方法論、轉變我們的工作方式、嵌入自動化、人工智能、成為一家認知型企業等事情。

With that enterprise productivity, we see our fourth quarter operating pretax margins expanding significantly as we move forward.

憑藉企業生產力，我們看到第四季度的營業稅前利潤率隨著我們的前進而顯著擴大。

So the last thing I'll bring up is tax.

所以我要提出的最後一件事是稅收。

And as you know, on tax, our third quarter, our underlying rate was still 16%.

如您所知，在稅收方面，我們第三季度的基本稅率仍為 16%。

We did have a discrete in the third quarter.

我們在第三季度確實有一個離散的。

But if you look at our fourth quarter, we continue to expect our underlying rate to be 16%, plus or minus the 2 points.

但如果你看看我們的第四季度，我們繼續預計我們的基礎利率為 16%，加上或減去 2 個百分點。

And I'll tell you, when you take a look at fourth quarter, fourth quarter always has the biggest variability in tax.

我告訴你，當你看一下第四季度時，第四季度的稅收變化總是最大的。

Go look at the fourth quarter over the last 5 to 10 years.

去看看過去 5 到 10 年的第四季度。

Why is that the case?

為什麼會這樣？

Because, one, it's our largest transactional quarter.

因為，第一，這是我們最大的交易季度。

So the product mix and geographic mix has a major implication on our underlying rate.

因此，產品組合和地理組合對我們的基礎利率有重大影響。

But also, tax events typically happen in the fourth quarter: tax closures, audit closures, statute expirations, each tends to drive variability overall.

而且，稅務事件通常發生在第四季度：稅收關閉、審計關閉、法規到期，每一個都傾向於推動整體變化。

But with that said, consistent with what I've said all year long, we expect on a full year basis that our tax rate, all-in, printed, will be a headwind.

但是話雖如此，與我一整年所說的一致，我們預計在全年的基礎上，我們的稅率，總計，印刷，將是一個逆風。

So you put all those elements together, we expect a full year guidance of at least $13.80, and as I said earlier, about $12 billion of free cash flow.

所以你把所有這些因素放在一起，我們預計全年指導至少為 13.80 美元，正如我之前所說，大約有 120 億美元的自由現金流。

The next question is from John Roy from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Roy。

So Jim, I know obviously the mainframe has done very well.

所以吉姆，我知道大型機顯然做得很好。

Is there any chance you'd continue to see slower moderation as you go through?

在經歷過程中，您是否有機會繼續看到更慢的節制？

Or are we back to the regular mainframe cycles?

還是我們回到了常規的大型機週期？

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Very good question.

很好的問題。

And to be honest with you, I haven't talked enough about mainframe because we couldn't be more pleased with how we've been able to leverage our high-value innovation technology, which really is instantiated, and I would argue, one of the most enduring platforms that delivers tremendous value to our clients overall.

老實說，我對大型機的討論還不夠多，因為我們對如何利用我們的高價值創新技術感到非常滿意，這確實是實例化的，我認為，一個為我們的客戶整體提供巨大價值的最持久的平台之一。

But with that said, mainframe, we had a good quarter in mainframe.

但是話雖如此，大型機，我們在大型機上有一個很好的季度。

It is the fifth quarter we wrapped.

這是我們結束的第五個季度。

We grew 6% on a successful z14 launch.

由於 z14 的成功發布，我們增長了 6%。

And again, I'll remind you, that's off of 62% growth last year.

再一次，我會提醒你，這是去年 62% 的增長。

We had double-digit growth in MIPS, 20%.

我們的 MIPS 實現了兩位數的增長，即 20%。

And by the way, as you get to the back half of the mainframe cycle, we drive margin expansion, and that happened here in the quarter.

順便說一下，當你進入大型機週期的後半段時，我們推動利潤率擴張，這發生在本季度。

So again, best program ever against the prior cycle.

再一次，針對前一個週期的最佳程序。

We are still well in excess of that prior cycle, and I would expect us to continue to be well in excess of that prior cycle here in the fourth quarter.

我們仍然遠遠超過了之前的周期，我希望我們在第四季度繼續遠遠超過之前的周期。

Although, I'll caution you, in a GA plus 5 or a 6 quarter in, we typically do not grow.

雖然，我會提醒您，在 GA 加 5 或 6 的季度中，我們通常不會增長。

And again, we're coming off of 71% growth last year on a strong launch.

再一次，我們在強勁的發布中擺脫了去年 71% 的增長。

But we are very pleased with the platform, the pervasive encryption.

但我們對該平台以及普遍加密感到非常滿意。

Value proposition is really resonating now as we get into the back half of the cycle.

當我們進入周期的後半部分時，價值主張現在確實引起了共鳴。

We drive margin expansion, and now we start seeing the rest of the platform stack play out with regards to our maintenance base, our IGF base, our software base that's on top of it.

我們推動利潤擴張，現在我們開始看到平台堆棧的其餘部分在我們的維護基礎、我們的 IGF 基礎、我們在其之上的軟件基礎方面發揮作用。

The next question is from David Grossman with Stifel Financial.

下一個問題來自 Stifel Financial 的 David Grossman。

Jim, you touched on this briefly on 1 or 2 other questions, but is there anything you can share beyond the quarterly data points that will help us better understand the growth trajectory of the Cognitive segment going forward?

吉姆，你在其他 1 或 2 個問題上簡要談到了這個問題，但除了季度數據點之外，你還有什麼可以分享的，這將有助於我們更好地了解認知細分市場未來的增長軌跡嗎？

I think I understand the issues, but they seem somewhat open-ended and really having a hard time gauging how to model growth of that segment going forward.

我想我理解這些問題，但它們似乎有些開放性，而且真的很難衡量如何模擬該細分市場未來的增長。

Okay, David, thank you for the question.

好的，大衛，謝謝你的提問。

Cognitive.

認知的。

So from a net perspective, and then I'll expand, we were impacted by enterprise client-buying cycles as I said in the prepared remarks and also challenges that we've talked about in the last quarter around our horizontal apps, in particular, talent, collaboration and marketing and commerce.

因此，從網絡的角度來看，然後我將展開，正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們受到企業客戶購買週期的影響，以及我們在上個季度圍繞我們的水平應用程序討論的挑戰，特別是，人才、協作、營銷和商業。

Where we're seeing some green shoots, but again, time to value in that as you shift to SaaS, all you know quite well will play out as we get into 2019.

我們看到了一些萌芽，但再次強調，當你轉向 SaaS 時，你所知道的一切都將在我們進入 2019 年時發揮作用。

But let's take a moment and really unpack this segment.

但是，讓我們花點時間真正解開這一部分。

And to your point, and part of this, I think, is on us, but there are many different pieces of this segment.

就你的觀點而言，我認為其中一部分由我們承擔，但這個部分有很多不同的部分。

So we have a strong portfolio of high-value areas around domains like security, analytics, blockchain.

因此，我們在安全、分析、區塊鍊等領域擁有強大的高價值領域組合。

We've got industry verticals like health care, our FSS portfolio and IoT.

我們擁有醫療保健、我們的 FSS 產品組合和物聯網等垂直行業。

We've got horizontal apps, as I talked about, like talent, collaboration and marketing and commerce.

正如我所說，我們有橫向應用程序，比如人才、協作、營銷和商業。

And then we have transaction processing software.

然後我們有交易處理軟件。

So let me unpack this, but I'll remind you, this segment's high value, high margin and we continue to expand even in third quarter, in third quarter year-to-date, we're expanding our pretax margins overall.

所以讓我打開這個，但我會提醒你，這個部分的高價值，高利潤率，我們甚至在第三季度繼續擴張，在今年第三季度，我們正在擴大我們的整體稅前利潤率。

But let me give you the different dynamics on how they're playing out, and I'll do it kind of headwind, tailwind.

但是讓我給你關於他們如何發揮作用的不同動態，我會做一些逆風，順風。

First, in terms of headwind.

首先，在逆風方面。

As you could see through our -- the prepared remarks, we were impacted by TPS and by these -- by our horizontal apps.

正如您通過我們準備好的評論所看到的那樣，我們受到了 TPS 和這些的影響 - 我們的水平應用程序。

So let's talk TPS.

那麼讓我們談談TPS。

TPS, high-value business, strategically important to our clients.

TPS，高價值業務，對我們的客戶具有戰略重要性。

By the way, it encompasses mission-critical systems that run many industries like banking, like airlines, like retail and there is seasonality to this business.

順便說一句，它包含運行許多行業的關鍵任務系統，例如銀行業、航空公司、零售業，並且該業務具有季節性。

And what you saw play out in third quarter was tied to enterprise client-buying cycles that really reflect the time of when they commit to choose to go to the platform.

你在第三季度看到的結果與企業客戶購買週期有關，這真正反映了他們承諾選擇使用該平台的時間。

And what we see right now, when you look at the last couple of years, by the way, a 2-year [CGR] kind of is within our long-term model expectations.

我們現在看到的是，當你回顧過去幾年時，順便說一句，2 年 [CGR] 屬於我們的長期模型預期。

We had a strong growth last year, down 8% this quarter.

我們去年增長強勁，本季度下降了 8%。

But when we look at our fourth quarter, we actually see a very strong pipeline because we're in the sweet spot of what that client-buying cycle is here in the fourth quarter.

但是當我們看第四季度時，我們實際上看到了一個非常強大的渠道，因為我們正處於第四季度客戶購買週期的最佳位置。

And with that, we expect growth in this part of the portfolio here in the fourth quarter, and that will lead to much better software performance overall.

因此，我們預計第四季度這部分產品組合會有所增長，這將帶來更好的整體軟件性能。

Around our horizontal apps, again, we talked 90 days ago, what did we say?

圍繞我們的水平應用程序，再次，我們在 90 天前談過，我們說了什麼？

We were going to strategically invest, and we were going to take action, action around revitalizing our portfolio to be more digitally consumable, around investing, around high-value embedding AI and Watson to differentiate and around actions we were going to take around portfolio simplification and repositioning our platforms for further innovation.

我們將進行戰略投資，我們將採取行動，圍繞振興我們的投資組合以使其更具數字消費性、圍繞投資、圍繞高價值嵌入 AI 和 Watson 以實現差異化以及圍繞我們將採取的圍繞投資組合簡化的行動採取行動重新定位我們的平台以進一步創新。

And we've made progress, I'll tell you.

我們已經取得了進展，我會告訴你。

In collaboration, as I said in the prepared remarks, we've had our biggest release ever of Notes/Domino version 10 focused on mobile, supporting JavaScript, Node.js, more open than ever, integrated with other platforms like Salesforce, ServiceNow, Watson, Weather.

在合作中，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們發布了有史以來最大的 Notes/Domino 版本 10，專注於移動設備，支持 JavaScript、Node.js，比以往任何時候都更加開放，與 Salesforce、ServiceNow 等其他平台集成，華生，天氣。

And we expect that to play out as we get into '19 with that innovative technology.

我們希望在我們進入 19 世紀時使用這項創新技術發揮作用。

And in commerce and talent, we've been making innovation and investments and embedding AI so we can differentiate our value proposition in the marketplace to win.

在商業和人才方面，我們一直在進行創新和投資，並嵌入人工智能，這樣我們就可以在市場上區分我們的價值主張，從而取勝。

And I would tell you early signs -- we got some green shoots.

我會告訴你早期跡象——我們有了一些萌芽。

Our SaaS signings are growing.

我們的 SaaS 簽約正在增長。

And in particular, in commerce and in talent, collectively, they're growing significant double digit in the third quarter.

特別是在商業和人才方面，它們在第三季度總體上以兩位數的速度增長。

So there are some good green shoots starting out, but again, that will play out as we get later into 2019 and we can ramp and scale.

所以有一些好的萌芽開始了，但同樣，隨著我們進入 2019 年晚些時候，這將發揮作用，我們可以擴大規模。

And then finally, I'll wrap up on our high-value industry verticals and domain areas.

最後，我將總結我們的高價值垂直行業和領域。

We had good growth in security.

我們在安全方面取得了良好的增長。

We have a differentiated value proposition.

我們有一個差異化的價值主張。

We're gaining market share.

我們正在獲得市場份額。

We're the industry leader.

我們是行業領導者。

We expect that to continue.

我們希望這種情況繼續下去。

And in health, we had strong growth in health, pervasive across the platforms, and we're scaling.

在健康方面，我們在健康方面取得了強勁增長，遍及各個平台，而且我們正在擴大規模。

We're scaling new emerging areas like blockchain where, again, we've got 75 active blockchain networks in production and we've got engagements in over 500 clients around global trade, universal payments, around trade finance, around food safety, et cetera.

我們正在擴展區塊鍊等新興領域，在這些領域，我們有 75 個活躍的區塊鍊網絡投入生產，我們已經與全球貿易、通用支付、貿易融資、食品安全等領域的 500 多個客戶進行了合作.

So we see that part of the portfolio continue to improve.

所以我們看到投資組合的一部分繼續改善。

So when you bring it all together, we expect with the strong pipeline that we would return IBM Software back to an expectation of modest growth in the fourth quarter.

因此，當您將所有這些整合在一起時，我們預計憑藉強大的渠道，我們將使 IBM Software 恢復到第四季度適度增長的預期。

And we'll see, as we get through fourth quarter, how that momentum will continue in '19, and we'll talk in January.

當我們度過第四季度時，我們將看到這種勢頭將如何在 19 年繼續下去，我們將在 1 月份進行討論。

Next question is from Keith Bachman from BMO.

下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Keith Bachman。

I wanted to ask about Technology Services & Cloud Platforms and a little less focused on Q4, but more focused on the outlook, say, for CY '19, and the simple question is can it grow?

我想問一下技術服務和雲平台，而不是關注第四季度，而是更關注 CY '19 的前景，簡單的問題是它能增長嗎？

The backdrop to the question is your backlog is down a little bit, but I think your duration is also down.

這個問題的背景是您的積壓工作有所減少，但我認為您的持續時間也有所減少。

But against that context is technology services support declined meaningfully this quarter, down 3%.

但在這種背景下，本季度技術服務支持顯著下降，下降了 3%。

With presumably being a harder mainframe cycle next year, can that grow and enable the whole business unit to grow?

明年可能是一個更艱難的大型機週期，它能增長並使整個業務部門增長嗎？

So if you could just talk more broadly about the outlook for Technology Services & Cloud Platforms with particular bias to CY '19.

因此，如果您可以更廣泛地談論技術服務和雲平台的前景，特別偏向 CY '19。

Sure.

當然。

Sure.

當然。

Thank you very much for the question.

非常感謝你的提問。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Remember, within this segment, we've got multiple components, and I think you want to get to the services aspect of Technology Services & Cloud Platform.

請記住，在這個細分市場中，我們有多個組件，我認為您想了解技術服務和雲平台的服務方面。

But let me start first with the integration software, which is central part of our integrated value proposition around our hybrid cloud strategy, which differentiates us in the marketplace.

但讓我首先從集成軟件開始，它是我們圍繞混合雲戰略的集成價值主張的核心部分，它使我們在市場上脫穎而出。

You've seen consistent growth over the last couple quarters, and we think given that differentiated value proposition, that we've got momentum in that space, that we've always focused on being open, a secure platform and driving differentiation around multi-cloud as we move forward.

你在過去幾個季度看到了持續的增長，我們認為，鑑於差異化的價值主張，我們在這個領域有發展勢頭，我們一直專注於開放、安全的平台，並圍繞多方面推動差異化——雲，我們前進。

That integration software is going to be a critical component of that moving forward.

該集成軟件將成為向前發展的關鍵組成部分。

So that's that.

就是這樣。

Now let's go to our technology services or GTS part of the business.

現在讓我們來看看我們的技術服務或業務的 GTS 部分。

Remember, that's made up of 2 primary offering segments: one, TSS, which has been a drag on us throughout 2018, and that is entirely aligned to what our expectations would have been with a mainframe product launch cycle.

請記住，它由 2 個主要產品部分組成：一個是 TSS，它在整個 2018 年一直拖累我們，這完全符合我們對大型機產品發布週期的預期。

Typically, we'll see that cycle hurt us in the first 5 to 6 quarters, and then it comes back and accelerates, especially coupled with our extension into multi-vendor service where we've been doing quite well as we move forward.

通常，我們會看到這個週期在前 5 到 6 個季度對我們造成傷害，然後它又回來並加速，特別是加上我們擴展到多供應商服務，我們在前進的過程中一直做得很好。

And the margin dynamics, by the way, are very strong in that portfolio.

順便說一句，該投資組合的保證金動態非常強勁。

So as we start accelerating growth, we'll see better operating leverage in that segment as we go forward.

因此，隨著我們開始加速增長，我們將在前進的過程中看到該領域更好的運營槓桿。

And then finally, you have your core infrastructure service offering, and that ties right back to our overall outsourcing backlog that you quoted, and it ties back to our success in moving our enterprise clients to the cloud.

最後，您擁有核心基礎設施服務產品，這與您引用的我們的整體外包積壓緊密相關，並且與我們將企業客戶遷移到雲端的成功相關。

And I talked earlier about over 30% of our backlog now sits in cloud and new SI content is approaching 45% overall.

我之前談到我們超過 30% 的積壓工作現在位於雲中，新的 SI 內容總體上接近 45%。

Durations, you're right, have been reduced as we continue to execute, and again, fourth quarter is huge.

持續時間，你是對的，隨著我們繼續執行而減少了，而且，第四季度是巨大的。

We expect a good quarter, and that will position 2019 as we execute and deliver the value for our clients.

我們期待一個好的季度，這將在 2019 年為我們的客戶執行和交付價值。

Our last question is coming from Joseph Foresi from Cantor Fitzgerald.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Cantor Fitzgerald 的 Joseph Foresi。

I think you've given a mid-single-digit long-term growth target in Cognitive Solutions.

我認為您已經在認知解決方案中設定了中個位數的長期增長目標。

Is that still a target?

這還是目標嗎？

And can you hit it in '19?

你能在 19 年擊中它嗎？

And then how do you feel about the portfolio at this point?

那麼您目前對投資組合有何看法？

Could you be divesting other pieces?

你能剝離其他部分嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

I appreciate the question overall.

我很欣賞這個問題。

Obviously, we'll get into 2019 in January.

顯然，我們將在一月份進入 2019 年。

We've got a lot of work to do ahead of us.

我們前面還有很多工作要做。

Again, as I said, we're 16 days into arguably the most important quarter given the amount of large transactional business that we've got to get done.

同樣，正如我所說，考慮到我們必須完成的大量交易業務，我們進入可以說是最重要的季度已經 16 天了。

I talked about my answer in cognitive.

我在認知上講了我的答案。

We see a good opportunity pipeline ahead of us right now.

我們現在看到了一個很好的機會管道。

We believe in the portfolio, the strength of it, the offerings we have to deliver differentiated value to our enterprise clients overall.

我們相信產品組合，它的實力，我們必須為我們的企業客戶提供差異化價值的產品。

And we expect, as I stated, IBM Software to return to modest growth here in the fourth quarter.

正如我所說，我們預計 IBM 軟件將在第四季度恢復適度增長。

And as we play fourth quarter out, we'll see, as we get into January, where we'll move forward, you're right, our model is mid-single-digit growth.

當我們玩第四季度時，我們會看到，當我們進入 1 月時，我們將向前邁進，你是對的，我們的模型是中個位數增長。

We believe we've got the right portfolio for that.

我們相信我們擁有合適的產品組合。

But as always, portfolio optimization has been a critical strategy to our overall business model and our financial model.

但與往常一樣，投資組合優化一直是我們整體業務模型和財務模型的關鍵戰略。

And you've seen that play out over time not only on where we invest our capital organically, but where we leverage M&A and how we create value for our clients and for IBM shareholders and also where we divest in areas that either didn't meet our strategic fit or our financial requirements on where we see growth and more importantly, profit pools as we move forward.

你已經看到，隨著時間的推移，這不僅體現在我們有機投資的地方，還體現在我們利用併購的地方以及我們如何為客戶和 IBM 股東創造價值，以及我們在哪些領域剝離不符合要求的領域我們的戰略契合度或財務要求對我們看到增長的地方，更重要的是，隨著我們前進的利潤池。

So we'll continue to evaluate that, and we'll update you in 2019 on where we're at.

因此，我們將繼續對其進行評估，並在 2019 年向您更新我們的進展情況。

So with that, let me close up the call, and I'd like to thank all of you for joining us here today.

因此，讓我結束電話會議，我要感謝大家今天加入我們。

So our results through the third quarter reflect the work we've been doing collectively across 366,000 IBMers around the world, around how we've reallocated capital, how we've taken bold actions around where we place our investments and how we've repositioned our business.

因此，我們第三季度的業績反映了我們在全球 366,000 名 IBM 員工中共同開展的工作，包括我們如何重新分配資本、我們如何圍繞投資地點採取大膽行動以及我們如何重新定位我們的業務。

And then we've done all the work on how we transform the way we operate in our operating model overall, and you see that play out in our margins, in our level of operating leverage and productivity here in the third quarter, which we expect going into fourth quarter and beyond.

然後我們完成了所有關於如何改變我們在整體運營模式中的運營方式的工作，你會看到這在我們的利潤率、我們的運營槓桿水平和第三季度的生產率水平上發揮了作用，我們預計進入第四季度及以後。

You see those results.

你看到那些結果。

Profit margins are strong.

利潤率很高。

You see it in the innovation, in differentiation that we're bringing to the market, especially in areas like hybrid cloud, how we're winning in digital with our GBS business and around data and AI and security.

你在創新中看到了這一點，在我們為市場帶來的差異化中，尤其是在混合雲等領域，我們如何通過我們的 GBS 業務以及數據、人工智能和安全性在數字領域獲勝。

So with that said, we'll talk more about hybrid cloud, in particular, at the end of this month when Arvind and Martin Jetter will host the next webcast in our investor webcast series.

因此，話雖如此，我們將更多地討論混合雲，特別是在本月底，Arvind 和 Martin Jetter 將主持我們的投資者網絡廣播系列中的下一個網絡廣播。

So I'd like to thank you all for joining us today.

所以我要感謝大家今天加入我們。

And as always, it's back to work for all of us.

和往常一樣，它恢復了對我們所有人的工作。

Take care.

小心。

Thank you for participating on today's call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

The conference has now ended.

會議現已結束。

You may disconnect at this time.

此時您可以斷開連接。