Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Luther, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁保羅路德 (Paul Luther)。請繼續。

Thank you, Gary. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace first-quarter 2025 results conference call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Giacobbe, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Ken, we will have a question-and-answer session.

謝謝你，加里。早安，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。與我一起出席的還有執行董事長兼執行長約翰‧普蘭特 (John Plant)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Ken Giacobbe。在約翰和肯發表評論之後，我們將進行問答環節。

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings.

我想提醒大家，今天的討論將包含與未來事件和期望有關的前瞻性陳述。您可以在今天的簡報和收益新聞稿以及我們最新的 SEC 文件中找到可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測有重大差異的因素。

In today's presentation, references to EBITDA, operating income and EPS mean adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, adjusted operating income, excluding special items, and adjusted EPS, excluding special items.

在今天的演示中，EBITDA、營業收入和 EPS 指的是調整後的 EBITDA（不包括特殊項目）、調整後的營業收入（不包括特殊項目）和調整後的 EPS（不包括特殊項目）。

These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation.

這些指標屬於我們在討論中納入的非公認會計準則財務指標。在今天的新聞稿和今天的簡報的附錄中可以找到與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

說完這些，我想把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, PT, and good morning, everyone. I'll make my remarks at the outset fairly brief and then spend more time talking about the outlook after Ken provides his commentary on the markets and the BU commentary.

謝謝，PT，大家早安。我會在一開始簡短地發表我的評論，然後在肯對市場和 BU 評論發表評論後花更多時間談論前景。

So first of all, Q1 was a solid start to the year. Revenue was a record and increased 6%, while EBITDA margin was 28.8%. Operating margin was 25.3% and up 500 basis points year-over-year. Free cash flow was a positive $134 million.

首先，第一季是今年的一個好開始。營收創歷史新高，成長 6%，EBITDA 利潤率為 28.8%。營業利益率為25.3%，較去年同期成長500個基點。自由現金流為正 1.34 億美元。

All segments grew revenue and EBITDA compared to Q4 of 2024. Of the segments, the most notable margin progression was within Fastening Systems and Structures. Free cash flow was deployed with a 25% increase in dividends plus $125 million of share buyback in the first quarter, which was continued in Q2 with a further $100 million in April. We had strong performance on all fronts.

與 2024 年第四季相比，所有部門的營收和 EBITDA 均有所成長。在所有細分市場中，利潤率成長最顯著的是緊固系統和結構。自由現金流的部署包括第一季增加 25% 的股息和 1.25 億美元的股票回購，第二季繼續進行，4 月又回購了 1 億美元。我們在各方面都表現出色。

My commentary on the outlook will be after Ken. So over to yourself, Ken.

我對前景的評論將在肯之後發表。所以，肯，交給你自己吧。

Okay. Thank you, John. Good morning, everybody. Let's move to slide 5.

好的。謝謝你，約翰。大家早安。讓我們翻到幻燈片 5。

End markets continued to be healthy in the first quarter, with revenue up 6% year-over-year. A good start to the year, and we are well positioned for the future with continued investments for growth. Commercial Aerospace was up 9% year-over-year, driven by accelerating demand for engine spares. Commercial Aerospace growth is further supported by record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft with reduced carbon emissions.

第一季終端市場持續保持健康，營收年增 6%。今年開局良好，我們透過持續投資實現成長，為未來做好了準備。受發動機備件需求成長的推動，商用航空航太業務年增 9%。商用航空航太業的成長進一步得益於新型、更省油、碳排放量較少的飛機的訂單量創下紀錄。

Defense Aerospace growth continued to be robust in the first quarter and was up 19% year-over-year. With the global fleet of over 1,100 F-35 fighter jets in service, Defense Aerospace growth was driven by engine spares demand in addition to new builds.

第一季國防航空航太產業持續保持強勁成長，較去年同期成長 19%。全球目前有超過 1,100 架 F-35 戰鬥機在服役，國防航空航太業務的成長主要源自於新戰機建造需求和發動機備件需求。

As expected, Commercial Transportation was challenging with revenue down 14% in the first quarter. We continue to outperform the market with Howmet's premium wheels and coatings. Although down year-over-year, Commercial Transportation was up 2% sequentially.

正如預期的那樣，商業運輸面臨挑戰，第一季收入下降了 14%。我們繼續憑藉 Howmet 的優質輪圈和塗料超越市場。商業運輸雖然年減，但季增了 2%。

Finally, the Industrial and Other markets were up 10% in the first quarter, driven by Oil and Gas up 21% and IGT up 12%, while General Industrial was flat. Within our markets, the combination of Spares for Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace, IGT, and Oil and Gas continues to accelerate, and was up approximately 33% in the first quarter and represented 20% of total revenue. As a compare, total spares revenue in 2019 was 11% of total revenue on a smaller base.

最後，工業和其他市場在第一季上漲了 10%，其中石油和天然氣上漲了 21%，IGT 上漲了 12%，而一般工業則持平。在我們的市場中，商用航空航太、國防航空航太、IGT 以及石油和天然氣的備件組合繼續加速成長，第一季度增長了約 33%，佔總收入的 20%。相較之下，2019 年的備件總收入佔總收入的 11%，但基數較小。

In summary, continued strong performance in Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace, and Industrial, partially offset by Commercial Transportation.

綜上所述，商業航空航太、國防航空航太和工業領域持續表現強勁，但商業運輸領域部分抵消了這一表現。

Now let's move to slide 6, starting with the P&L. In the first quarter, EBITDA, EBITDA margin and earnings per share were all records and exceeded the high end of guidance. Revenue was also a record, up 6% year-over-year. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth and was up 28%. EBITDA margin increased 480 basis points to 28.8%. The incremental flow-through of revenue to EBITDA was excellent at more than 100%. Earnings per share was $0.86, which was up a healthy 51% year-over-year.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 6，從損益表開始。第一季度，EBITDA、EBITDA利潤率和每股盈餘均創歷史新高，並超越了預期的高端。收入也創下紀錄，較去年同期成長6%。EBITDA 成長速度超過營收成長，成長了 28%。EBITDA 利潤率增加 480 個基點至 28.8%。收入向 EBITDA 的增量流轉非常出色，超過 100%。每股收益為 0.86 美元，年增 51%。

Now let's cover the balance sheet and cash flow. The balance sheet continues to strengthen. Quarter-end cash balance was a healthy $537 million. Free cash flow was $134 million, which was a record for the first quarter. Free cash flow included the acceleration of capital expenditures with approximately $120 million invested in the quarter, which was up 45% year-over-year. The majority of the CapEx investment was in our Engines business as we continue to invest for growth, which is backed by customer contracts.

現在讓我們來看看資產負債表和現金流。資產負債表持續增強。季度末現金餘額達到健康的 5.37 億美元。自由現金流為1.34億美元，創第一季紀錄。自由現金流包括資本支出的加速，本季投資約 1.2 億美元，較去年同期成長 45%。大部分資本支出都用於我們的引擎業務，因為我們繼續投資以實現成長，而這得到了客戶合約的支持。

Net debt to trailing EBITDA continues to improve and remains at a record low of 1.4 times. All long-term debt is unsecured and at fixed rates. Howmet's improved financial leverage and strong cash generation were reflected in Fitch's Q1 ratings upgrade, from BBB to BBB+, which is three notches into investment grade. Liquidity remains strong, with a healthy cash balance and a $1 billion undrawn revolver complemented by the flexibility of a $1 billion commercial paper program.

淨債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA) 比率繼續改善，並保持在 1.4 倍的歷史低點。所有長期債務均為無擔保且利率固定。Howmet 的財務槓桿率提高和強勁的現金產生能力反映在惠譽對第一季度的評級上，從 BBB 升至 BBB+，比投資級提高了三個等級。流動性仍然強勁，擁有健康的現金餘額和 10 億美元未提取的循環信貸額度，並輔以 10 億美元商業票據計劃的靈活性。

Regarding capital deployment, we deployed approximately $167 million of cash to common stock repurchases and quarterly dividends. In the quarter, we repurchased $125 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $124 per share. Q4 -- excuse me, Q1, was the 16th consecutive quarter of common stock repurchases. The average diluted share count improved to a record low Q1 exit rate of 407 million shares.

在資本配置方面，我們部署了約 1.67 億美元現金用於普通股回購和季度股息。本季度，我們以平均每股約 124 美元的價格回購了價值 1.25 億美元的普通股。Q4—抱歉，Q1 是連續第 16 季進行普通股回購。平均稀釋股份數量改善至第一季歷史最低的 4.07 億股。

Additionally, in April of 2025, we repurchased $100 million of common stock at an average price of $126 per share. Remaining authorization from the Board of Directors for share repurchases is approximately $2 billion as of the end of April. Finally, we continue to be confident in free cash flow. We increased the quarterly dividend 25% in the first quarter to $0.10 per share, which was double the Q1 2024 quarterly dividend.

此外，2025 年 4 月，我們以每股 126 美元的平均價格回購了 1 億美元的普通股。截至 4 月底，董事會剩餘的股票回購授權約 20 億美元。最後，我們繼續對自由現金流充滿信心。我們在第一季將季度股息提高了 25%，達到每股 0.10 美元，是 2024 年第一季季度股息的兩倍。

Now let's move to slide 7 to cover the segment results for the first quarter. The Engine Products team delivered a record quarter, with revenue, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin. Revenue increased 13% year-over-year to $996 million. Commercial Aerospace was up 12% and Defense Aerospace was up 16%, driven by engine spares growth. Oil and Gas was up 21% and IGT was up 12%.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 7，介紹第一季的分部業績。引擎產品團隊創造了創紀錄的季度業績，包括營收、EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率。營收年增13%至9.96億美元。受發動機備件成長的推動，商用航空航太業上漲 12%，國防航空航太業上漲 16%。石油和天然氣上漲 21%，IGT 上漲 12%。

Demand continues to be strong across all engine markets, with record engine spares volume. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 31% year-over-year to $325 million. EBITDA margin increased 450 basis points year-over-year to 32.6%, while absorbing approximately 500 net new employees in the quarter.

所有引擎市場的需求持續強勁，引擎備件數量創下新高。EBITDA 成長速度超過營收成長，年增 31%，達到 3.25 億美元。EBITDA 利潤率年增 450 個基點至 32.6%，同時本季淨吸收了約 500 名新員工。

Now let's move to slide 8. The Fastening Systems team also delivered a record quarter for revenue, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin. Revenue increased 6% year-over-year to $412 million. Commercial Aerospace was up 13%, Defense Aerospace was up 8%, General Industrial was up 5%, and Commercial Transportation, which represents approximately 13% of Fasteners revenue, was down 20%.

現在我們來看第 8 張投影片。緊固系統團隊還創造了創紀錄的季度收入、EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率。營收年增6%至4.12億美元。商業航空航太業上漲 13%，國防航太業上漲 8%，通用工業業上漲 5%，而商業運輸業（約佔緊固件收入的 13%）下降了 20%。

Year-over-year, EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 38% to $127 million, despite the lower-than-expected recovery of the widebody aircraft. EBITDA margin increased an excellent 710 basis points year-over-year to 30.8%. The team has continued to expand margins through commercial and operational performance.

儘管寬體飛機的復甦低於預期，但 EBITDA 年增 38%，達到 1.27 億美元，超過營收成長。EBITDA 利潤率較去年同期大幅成長 710 個基點，達到 30.8%。該團隊透過商業和營運表現不斷擴大利潤率。

Now let's move to slide 9. Engineered Structures performance continues to improve. Revenue increased 8% year-over-year to $282 million. Commercial Aerospace was flat and Defense Aerospace was up 36%, primarily driven by the F-35 program.

現在我們來看投影片 9。工程結構的性能不斷提高。營收年增8%至2.82億美元。商業航空航太業務持平，國防航太業務上漲 36%，主要受 F-35 計畫推動。

Year-over-year, segment EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 62% to $60 million, despite the delay in the widebody recovery. EBITDA margin increased an excellent 720 basis points to 21.3% as we continue to optimize the Structures manufacturing footprint and rationalize the product mix to maximize profitability.

儘管寬體飛機復甦有所延遲，但該部門的 EBITDA 與去年同期相比仍超過了收入成長，成長了 62%，達到 6,000 萬美元。隨著我們繼續優化結構製造足跡並合理化產品組合以實現獲利能力最大化，EBITDA 利潤率大幅提升 720 個基點至 21.3%。

Finally, let's move to slide 10. Forged Wheels revenue was down 13% year-over-year. Although down year-over-year, the Forged Wheels revenue was up approximately 4% sequentially. EBITDA decreased 17% year-over-year. Despite the challenging market, we were pleased with the Forged Wheels team delivering a healthy 27% EBITDA margin as the team flexed cost and reduced head count on a year-over-year basis.

最後，我們來看第 10 張投影片。鍛造車輪收入較去年同期下降13%。儘管同比下降，但鍛造車輪收入較上季成長約 4%。EBITDA年減17%。儘管市場充滿挑戰，但我們對鍛造輪組團隊實現了 27% 的健康 EBITDA 利潤率感到滿意，因為該團隊比去年同期調整了成本並減少了員工人數。

Lastly, before turning it back over to John, I wanted to highlight one additional item. Page 17 in the appendix highlights our ESG progress. We continue to leverage our differentiated technologies to help our customers manufacture lighter, more fuel-efficient aircraft and commercial trucks with lower carbon footprints.

最後，在將其交還給約翰之前，我想強調另一項內容。附錄第 17 頁重點介紹了我們的 ESG 進展。我們繼續利用我們的差異化技術來幫助我們的客戶製造更​​輕、更省油、碳足跡更低的飛機和商用卡車。

Howmet remains committed to managing our energy consumption and environmental impacts as we increase production. In 2024, we met our three-year target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by achieving a 21.7% reduction versus our 2019 baseline. In April, we issued our annual ESG report highlighting the meaningful progress we made throughout 2024. The full report is available at howmet.com in the Investors section.

在提高產量的同時，Howmet 仍致力於管理我們的能源消耗和環境影響。2024 年，我們實現了減少溫室氣體排放的三年目標，與 2019 年相比減少了 21.7%。今年 4 月，我們發布了年度 ESG 報告，重點介紹了我們在 2024 年取得的重大進展。完整報告可在 howmet.com 的「投資者」部分查閱。

Now let me turn it back over to John.

現在讓我把話題交還給約翰。

Thanks, Ken. So turning to the outlook, let me comment first on tariffs. Clearly, they've increased uncertainty and reduced confidence in air travel.

謝謝，肯。談到前景，我首先要評論一下關稅。顯然，它們增加了不確定性並降低了人們對航空旅行的信心。

Regarding Commercial Aerospace, the passenger traffic has continued to grow, albeit more slowly. That's mainly due to Europe and Asia Pacific, where growth has continued. There's been uncertainty in North America in particular, driven by a combination of political and economic statements. Travel to the US is also reduced, air cargo growth has moderated. Everything is a little less clear, and passenger and freight data, of course, is backwards looking.

對商用航空而言，客運量持續成長，儘管速度較慢。這主要歸功於歐洲和亞太地區的持續成長。受政治和經濟聲明的共同影響，北美尤其存在不確定性。前往美國的旅行也減少了，航空貨運量的成長已經放緩。一切都不太清楚，當然，客運和貨運數據都是回顧性的。

Nevertheless, our Howmet customers are showing resilience and growth, which is both due to the consistent underbuilding of aircraft in recent years and hence having very large backlogs. And the fact that airline fleets have become aged and more fuel-efficient aircraft are needed with lower maintenance bills, combined with the requirement for lower carbon footprints in order to meet emissions targets. Of note is the more optimistic mood around Boeing and their 737 MAX builds. We'll provide improved build rate assumptions later in my commentary.

儘管如此，我們的 Howmet 客戶仍表現出韌性和成長力，這不僅是由於近年來飛機製造持續不足，也因此積壓了大量訂單。事實上，航空公司的機隊已經老化，需要更省油的飛機和更低的維修費用，同時也需要降低碳足跡以滿足排放目標。值得注意的是，人們對波音及其 737 MAX 的製造持更加樂觀的態度。我們將在後面的評論中提供改進的建造率假設。

Spares demand has also continued to be strong. And while one quarter doesn't make a year, we did reach the 20% of total revenue milestone in 2025 in the first quarter, a year ahead of schedule. In the first quarter, spares increased by an average of 33% across our segments of Commercial Aero, Defense Aero, IGT, and Oil and Gas. Within Defense, demand is steady and increasing, particularly around needed spares. The F-35 spares growth is notable.

備件需求也持續強勁。雖然一個季度不能代表一年，但我們確實在第一季就實現了 2025 年總收入 20% 的里程碑，比計劃提前了一年。第一季度，商用航空、國防航空、IGT 以及石油和天然氣部門的備件平均增加了 33%。在國防領域，需求穩定且不斷成長，特別是對所需備件的需求。F-35備件成長顯著。

Moving to Industrial, demand continues to be solid. Addressing IGT turbine growth due to the electricity demand, which emanates from data center buildout, we see the growth assumptions for the next few years remaining intact, with large, expected growth for both spares and turbine builds. These turbines cover the full spectrum, from aeroderivative turbines, all the way through to the larger sizes of gas turbine builds. This demand is global.

轉向工業，需求持續強勁。針對資料中心建設帶來的電力需求導致的 IGT 渦輪機成長，我們預計未來幾年的成長假設將保持不變，備件和渦輪機建造量均將大幅成長。這些渦輪機涵蓋了從航空衍生渦輪機到更大尺寸的燃氣渦輪機的全部範圍。這種需求是全球性的。

To this end, Howmet is building capacity in each of the major world regions, with additional building footprint investments in both Japan and Europe. These capacity expansions are backed by solid customer agreements for many years. IGT matches the Aerospace margins.

為此，Howmet 正在世界各主要地區進行產能建設，並在日本和歐洲加大建設投資。這些產能擴張得到了多年來穩固的客戶協議的支持。IGT 與航空航天利潤相符。

The expected second half increase in Commercial Truck builds is now less certain, given the North American economic uncertainties and some road freight concerns driven by tariffs. We're watching container shipment bookings very closely.

鑑於北美經濟的不確定性以及關稅引發的一些公路貨運擔憂，預計下半年商用卡車產量將出現成長，但現在這一情況並不那麼確定。我們正在密切關注集裝箱運輸預訂情況。

Net tariff costs in total for Howmet are expected to be passed on to customers, with up to quarter or so of lag, with the impact included in the updated increased guidance. We, of course, avail ourselves of all the trade programs to mitigate the gross tariff impact.

Howmet 的總淨關稅成本預計將轉嫁給客戶，滯後時間最多為四分之一，其影響已包含在更新後的成長指引中。當然，我們會利用所有貿易計劃來減輕總關稅的影響。

Wider inflation assumptions are unclear at this point. The footprint build-out of plants in the US for Aerospace, and now Japan and Europe for IGT, continues. We've been hiring to date for the US footprint; the net 500 people recruited in the first quarter mainly for our Engines segment. This will accelerate as we move through 2025 and into 2026.

目前更廣泛的通膨假設尚不明確。航空航太公司在美國以及 IGT 公司在日本和歐洲的工廠建設仍在繼續。到目前為止，我們一直在為美國市場招募員工；第一季淨招募 500 人，主要為我們的引擎部門。隨著我們進入 2025 年和 2026 年，這一進程將會加速。

Overall, my summary is that this continues to be a good and exciting time for Howmet when we look forward to the next few years, albeit the near term is rather more uncertain. The specific guidance for Q2 is as follows: revenue of $1.99 billion, plus or minus $10 million; EBITDA of $560 million, plus or minus $5 million; and earnings per share of $0.86, plus or minus $0.01. For the year, the midpoint of revenue guidance is similar to that provided last quarter.

總的來說，我的總結是，展望未來幾年，儘管短期內情況更加不確定，但對於 Howmet 來說，這仍然是一個美好而令人興奮的時刻。Q2 具體指引為：營收19.9億美元，上下浮動1,000萬美元；EBITDA 為 5.6 億美元，上下浮動 500 萬美元；每股收益 0.86 美元，上下浮動 0.01 美元。對於今年而言，營收預期的中點與上一季的預期相似。

The strength in Commercial Aerospace is due to spares and the Boeing 737 build rate assumptions, which are being raised to an average of 25 per month compared to the prior assumption of -- 28 per month compared to the prior assumption of 25 per month. The offset is Commercial Truck build assumptions in the second half. We remain hopeful that the final builds achieved are better.

商用航空的強勁表現得益於備件和波音 737 的製造率假設，該假設已提高至平均每月 25 架，而先前的假設為每月 28 架，而先前的假設為每月 25 架。抵銷因素是下半年商用卡車的建造假設。我們仍然希望最終實現的成果會更好。

Having said that, given the uncertainty around markets, we are widening the range of outcomes for the year compared to that given in February. The year's guidance is revenue of $8.03 billion, which we also widen the range to plus or minus $150 million. The EBITDA baseline has been increased $120 million to $2.25 billion, plus or minus $25 million. Earnings per share, the baseline has been increased, $0.23 to $3.40, plus or minus $0.04. Free cash flow baseline has been increased $75 million to $1.15 billion, plus or minus $50 million.

話雖如此，考慮到市場不確定性，與二月的結果相比，我們擴大了今年的結果範圍。今年的預期收入為 80.3 億美元，我們也將範圍擴大至正負 1.5 億美元。EBITDA 基準增加了 1.2 億美元，達到 22.5 億美元，上下浮動 2,500 萬美元。每股收益，基準已增加 0.23 美元至 3.40 美元，上下浮動 0.04 美元。自由現金流基準增加了 7,500 萬美元，達到 11.5 億美元，上下浮動 5,000 萬美元。

The good news is that EBITDA, EBITDA margins and free cash flow are expected to be higher for the year. The increased free cash flow guidance includes an increase in our capital expenditure guidance as well, as we continue to invest in future growth. This increase is approximately $15 million compared to prior guidance.

好消息是，預計今年的 EBITDA、EBITDA 利潤率和自由現金流將會更高。隨著我們繼續投資於未來的成長，增加的自由現金流指導也包括增加我們的資本支出指導。與先前的指導相比，這一增幅約為 1500 萬美元。

Naturally, capital deployment continues to be on the same trajectory of uses as normal. At the same time, net leverage is going to further strengthen towards 1.1 times net debt to EBITDA by the end of the year, which is important given the current volatility and our desire for an even stronger balance sheet. This further supports the recent credit agency upgrades.

當然，資本配置將繼續按照正常的使用軌跡進行。同時，到今年年底，淨槓桿率將進一步增強，達到淨債務與 EBITDA 比率的 1.1 倍，考慮到當前的波動性和我們對更強勁資產負債表的渴望，這一點至關重要。這進一步支持了近期信用機構的升級。

And now we'll move to the questions and answers.

現在我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）Seth Seifman，摩根大通。

Good results. I guess, John, one thing I wanted to touch on, you mentioned in the release where air traffic growth is. And I think the IATA number for March came out today, and it was something like 3% globally. I guess the question I had is how much does it really matter just in that the Structures and Fasteners will probably be dictated by build rate and Engines,-if it's not for aftermarket, it seems like there's plenty of demand on the OEM side and new content. And you have to see a pretty significant decline in traffic to affect your outlook.

效果很好。約翰，我想談談你在新聞稿中提到的空中交通量成長。我認為國際航空運輸協會今天公佈了 3 月的數據，全球範圍內的降幅約為 3%。我想我的問題是，這到底有多重要，因為結構和緊固件可能由建造率和引擎決定，如果不是為了售後市場，似乎 OEM 方面和新內容方面有很多需求。您必須看到流量大幅下降才會影響您的前景。

I think overall demand or end market demand for travel is important. And it's important because it does affect, in particular, how we feel about '26 and '27. And therefore, for example, the rate at which we would invest in the volume -- underlying volume assumptions that are important to us.

我認為旅遊的整體需求或終端市場需求很重要。這很重要，因為它確實影響了我們對 26 年和 27 年的感受。因此，例如，我們投資於交易量的比率——對我們而言重要的基本交易量假設。

I think that we're protected for a significant period of time and maybe many years, it remains to be determined by the fact of the aircraft manufacturers in Commercial Aerospace have a very high backlog. And so even though with the current situation, for example, where China is no longer taking Boeing aircraft, then the question is to you, what does that mean?

我認為，我們在相當長的一段時間內，甚至可能是很多年內，都受到了保護，但這仍然取決於商用航空航天飛機製造商的積壓訂單量是否很高。因此，即使在目前的情況下，例如中國不再接收波音飛機，那麼對你來說，這意味著什麼？

I mean for the industry where it seems like Airbus probably can't produce many more, but it strengthens their underlying demand, whereas Boeing maybe not so. At the same time, their backlog is so enormous that their movement to rate 38 and beyond, I think, is still assured.

我的意思是，對於這個行業來說，空中巴士似乎可能無法生產更多飛機，但這會增強其潛在需求，而波音可能並非如此。同時，他們的積壓訂單量如此巨大，我認為他們達到 38 級及以上水平的勢頭仍有保證。

At the same time, could I envisage that certain airlines might begin to cancel aircraft in the, let's say, coming year? Well, I think it's possible, but that very much depends upon really what the passenger traffic is. So at this point, I'd say it's okay, but I think all of us feel a little bit less certain than we did a few months ago given the current, I'll say, economic policies being carried out in the US in particular.

同時，我是否可以預見某些航空公司可能會在明年開始取消飛機？嗯，我認為這是可能的，但這很大程度取決於客流量到底是多少。因此，就目前情況而言，我想說這沒問題，但考慮到當前特別是美國正在實施的經濟政策，我認為我們所有人都比幾個月前感到不那麼確定了。

So it's a long way of saying, I think it's important for when you look forward into the future of having strong underlying fundamentals for demand that start with confidence in the traveling public, the confidence in freight moving around the world. But at the same time, do we have other areas with strength? Yes, we have strength in defense. We have strength coming from the continued build-out of data centers, which is giving us quite an extraordinary opportunity of demand.

所以，說來話長，我認為，當你展望未來時，擁有強勁的需求基本面非常重要，這首先要對旅行大眾有信心，對全球貨運有信心。但同時，我們是否還有其他優勢領域？是的，我們的防守實力很強。我們的優勢來自於資料中心的持續建設，這為我們帶來了相當大需求的機會。

And also as noted in the first quarter, at the moment, the demand for spares continues to be very high, and possibly will further increase. But the opposite side of that is should original aircraft engine production slow or aircraft builds slow, then it does affect our Structures business, Fastener business, and all of the other componentry beyond turbine airfoils, for example, structural castings where there's limited aftermarket demand compared to the wearing part.

而且正如第一季所指出的，目前對備件的需求仍然很高，並且可能會進一步增加。但另一方面，如果原廠飛機引擎生產放緩或飛機製造放緩，那麼它就會影響我們的結構業務、緊固件業務以及渦輪翼型以外的所有其他組件，例如結構鑄件，因為與磨損部件相比，售後市場需求有限。

So in the last call, I commented, for example, on the existing fleet, where I've been saying for some time that probably the peak for the CFM56 is going to be mid '27, '28, well I think it's at least that and current demand has actually been increasing substantially. And so all of that's playing well at the moment.

因此，在上次電話會議中，我評論了現有機隊的情況，我一直在說，CFM56 的峰值可能出現在 27 年、28 年中期，我認為至少是那樣，而且目前的需求實際上一直在大幅增加。目前一切進展順利。

And I think the future is fine. But do we -- should I get my worry beads out? Yes, I think it's appropriate, and that's one of the reasons why I've said we'll further strengthen the balance sheet as we go through this year and have a fortress balance sheet, totally fortress by the end of the year.

我認為未來是美好的。但是我們──我應該把我的念珠拿出來嗎？是的，我認為這是合適的，這也是為什麼我說我們將在今年進一步加強資產負債表，並在年底前擁有一個堡壘資產負債表，完全堡壘資產負債表的原因之一。

David Strauss, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的大衛‧施特勞斯。

John, I wanted to ask you progress on yields on the upgraded 1A blades and how things are going on GTFA and when you expect timing of the one blade upgrade certification?

約翰，我想問一下您升級後的 1A 葉片的產量進展情況以及 GTFA 的情況如何，以及您預計單葉片升級認證的時間是什麼時候？

Okay. So, we've been moving along our typical, learner curves for, for new, I'll say turbine airfoil production. So everything is going to plan, and we're in very good stead in terms of being ahead of, I'll say, the engine manufacturer requirements. You may recall, I think it was in November of last year when I said we'd already put in 500 engine sets worth of turbine airfoils for the LEAP-1A.

好的。因此，對於新型渦輪翼型的生產，我們一直沿著典型的學習曲線前進。所以一切都在按計劃進行，而且我們在滿足引擎製造商的要求方面處於非常有利的地位。您可能還記得，我想那是在去年 11 月，當時我說過我們已經為 LEAP-1A 安裝了價值 500 台發動機的渦輪翼型。

As we look at our production of raw castings, my assumption is that we're actually further ahead at this point, albeit we don't have perfect information of then what the subsequent processes are in terms of machining and hole drilling and etcetera, etcetera.

當我們審視我們的原始鑄件生產時，我的假設是，我們在這一點上實際上已經取得了進一步的領先，儘管我們還沒有關於後續加工、鑽孔等工藝的完整資訊。

But at the moment our production is going well, but in line with where we expected it to be. So nothing extraordinary at this point.

但目前我們的生產進展順利，符合我們的預期。因此目前沒有什麼特別的。

In terms of certification, it feels as though, I mean, we now have, first of all, the 1A certified, the GTF Advantage certified. And the remaining one to, I'll say, fall into place is the LEAP-1B, which is still yet to be done. And my current thought is that it's probably heading towards certification by the end of the calendar year. And then with, I'll say, then the final cutover date is yet to be determined as we move in from the end of this year into 2026.

在認證方面，感覺好像我們現在首先獲得了 1A 認證，GTF Advantage 認證。我要說的是，剩下要完成的是 LEAP-1B，但這仍未完成。我目前的想法是，它可能會在今年年底前獲得認證。然後我想說的是，從今年年底到 2026 年，最終的切換日期尚未確定。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

In Q4, you had good margins in Fastening Systems and Engineered Structures. This quarter, they're even much better. And you commented that for each of those businesses, you haven't -- it's been disappointing to see the ramp on widebody demand, it's a little slower. Can you talk about what drove the margins up? Are these sustainable? And what additions might you expect once that widebody ramp occurs?

在第四季度，你們在緊固系統和工程結構方面獲得了良好的利潤率。本季度，他們的表現甚至更好。您評論說，對於每項業務來說，您都沒有看到寬體客機需求的成長，這令人失望，因為它的成長速度有點慢。能談談利潤率上升的原因嗎？這些是可持續的嗎？一旦寬體飛機坡道出現，您預計會增加什麼？

Yeah. So maybe I'll use Structures as a poster child for the conversation, Doug. Clearly, the year-on-year improvement is excellent. Obviously, the quarter-on-quarter increase is somewhat less. But nevertheless, I think still notable.

是的。因此，也許我會使用結構作為對話的典型例子，道格。顯然，同比改善非常出色。顯然，季比增幅是有所減少的。但儘管如此，我認為仍然值得注意。

And I'm going to say -- and it goes towards, I'm sure the question on incremental margins, which is going to be what we've been able to achieve. So in Structures, for example, I'd say we had a large effort of improved process control. And I'll give you an example of that.

我要說的是──我相信這個問題與增量利潤有關，這將是我們已經能夠實現的目標。以結構為例，我想說我們在改進過程控制方面做出了巨大努力。我給你舉一個例子。

As an example, in our aircraft wheels business, for the last, now, I'm going to say, seven months, we've been having, I think, regular detailed views, including myself, with not only the business unit leadership, but also the plant management and even departmental head so that we could examine the control of temperatures within our forging metals, the dies. We've looked at, for example, the dispensation of oiling, and not just quantity but in terms of coverage, then also the controls within our furnaces and chemical composition and temperature in that etch tanks.

舉個例子，在我們的飛機機輪業務中，在過去的七個月裡，我們一直在與業務部門領導、工廠管理層甚至部門負責人進行定期的詳細交流，包括我自己，以便我們能夠檢查鍛造金屬和模具的溫度控制。例如，我們研究了注油的分配，不僅考慮數量，還考慮覆蓋範圍，然後還考慮了爐內的控制以及蝕刻槽中的化學成分和溫度。

It's not for that just by itself, which has actually led to probably an increase in production of, I'll say, 10% to 15%, but the improvement in scrap has been extraordinary. The improvement in productivity has been really, really good. But it's meant to then obviously try to encourage increased process control across other areas. And you could point to, for example, titanium melt as well.

這不僅僅是因為這一點，實際上它可能已經導致產量增加，我想說，增加了 10% 到 15%，但廢品率的改善卻是非凡的。生產率的提高確實非常好。但它顯然是為了鼓勵加強其他領域的流程控制。您也可以指出，例如鈦熔體。

So we've been, let's say, doing a lot, and I'm really pleased with the way that the team has done all of that. So when you are achieving those sort of yield improvements and scrap reduction with productivity, combine that, if you recall, where last year, I think it was in the May timeframe, we told you that we had exited one business and sold one business in the Structures segment.

所以可以說，我們做了很多事情，我對團隊所做的一切感到非常滿意。因此，當您實現產量提高、廢品減少和生產率提高時，請結合這一點，如果您還記得的話，去年，我想是在五月份，我們告訴過您，我們已經退出了一項業務，並出售了結構部門的一項業務。

So got rid of some, I'll say, fundamentally underperforming lower-margin entities. So you get a positive mix effect. And you combine that with some price, then you get some really good outcomes. And so I would say it's been a really great story of, let's say, beginning to fire all cylinders.

因此，我認為，我們擺脫了一些從根本上表現不佳、利潤率較低的實體。因此，您會獲得積極的混合效果。並將其與一些價格結合起來，你會得到一些非常好的結果。所以我想說，這是一個非常棒的故事，就像開始全力以赴一樣。

So you may recall my statement, when we held it for some years with all the downdraft in, the I'll say, inventory overhang on F-35 and the widebody, say lower build, including cessation of the 787 for a period of time. Now we see stronger demand in the defense segments, including F-35. We, I will say, still look forward to increased widebody.

所以你可能還記得我的話，當我們堅持了幾年，所有的下行氣流都進來了，我會說，F-35 和寬體的庫存過剩，說是較低的建造，包括 787 停產一段時間。現在我們看到國防領域的需求更加強勁，包括F-35。我想說的是，我們仍然期待寬體飛機的增加。

And my statement was that we would probably get up to a high teens margin business, and which we managed to exceed this quarter. So I'm convinced that the statement I've made in terms of high teens is absolutely solid now. And clearly, we aspire to try to hold where we are.

我的聲明是，我們的業務利潤率可能會達到十幾歲的高水平，而且我們本季已經超過了這個數字。因此，我確信，我關於青少年時期的陳述現在絕對可靠。顯然，我們渴望維持現狀。

And so that gives you an example. And you could write ditto for aspects of our Fastening Systems and indeed for Engines also, really good controls and improving productivity, yields have been really outstanding.

這就給你舉了一個例子。您也可以為我們的緊固系統以及引擎的各個方面寫下相同的話，它們具有非常好的控制力，並且能夠提高生產率，產量也非常出色。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特·斯托拉德（Robert Stallard），垂直研究。

John, I was wondering if you could give us an update on where you currently are on the 737, obviously, noting you've increased your full-year production rate guide? And also, where you are on the wide bodies? Obviously, you did make those comments about the ramp there being a bit slower than expected.

約翰，我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下 737 目前的進展情況，顯然，您已經提高了全年生產力指南？另外，您在寬體飛機上處於什麼位置？顯然，您確實說過那裡的坡道比預期的要慢。

So maybe I'll start with the widebody first. As you know from public commentary, the 787 increase in ramp rate was delayed for three months, I think until the -- I think it's the second half. And so while we think the demand for that aircraft is extraordinary and the backlog is very high. So we have confidence that the full demand for that aircraft is there. It has caused a little bit of, I'll say, perturbation in the first half of this year.

因此我可能會先從寬體飛機開始。正如您從公開評論中了解到的那樣，787 產量提升的速度被推遲了三個月，我認為要到下半年。因此，我們認為該款飛機的需求量非常大，而且積壓訂單量很高。因此，我們有信心，該款飛機的需求量很大。我想說，這在今年上半年引起了一些不安。

On the A350, again, probably well-publicized commentary is that it's been difficult to getting some of the fuselage componentry from Spirit AeroSystems. And so on that one, our rate assumption, which was six, is probably more like a 5.5 now, and our rate assumption on the 787, which was going to seven earlier has now pushed back a little bit. So that's the picture on widebody. But having said that, with absolute confidence that the demand is there, which will carry us through into 2026 and 2027.

關於 A350，可能再次廣為人知的評論是，從 Spirit AeroSystems 獲得一些機身部件非常困難。因此，就這一點而言，我們的利率假設（之前為 6）現在可能更像是 5.5，而我們對 787 的利率假設（之前為 7）現在略有回落。這就是寬體飛機的圖片。但話雖如此，我們絕對有信心，需求是存在的，這將使我們度過 2026 年和 2027 年。

On narrowbody, well, we've noted and feel more confident in the pickup in build that's been going on in Boeing. And so there, we've moved from a 25 rate assumption to a 28 rate assumption. So that's an average for the year. And so that implies that we will see a higher rate of production in the second half.

對於窄體飛機，我們已經注意到並且對波音公司正在推進的生產回升更有信心。因此，我們從 25 利率假設轉變為 28 利率假設。這是今年的平均值。這意味著下半年的生產力將會更高。

What we've been experiencing in the quarter because if you look at Commercial Aerospace sequentially between Q4 and Q1, while the year-on-year plus 9% is really good, the sequential is a much more modest increase than that.

我們在本季度經歷了什麼，因為如果你連續查看第四季度和第一季之間的商業航空航天業務，雖然同比增長 9% 確實很好，但連續的增長幅度要小得多。

And that's basically because of, I'll say, inventory takeout that Boeing has been doing so. The -- I think it's the increased rate of production, we haven't seen that come through in the first quarter. In fact, if anything, a little bit of reduction in certain componentry, particularly at the second-tier level in terms of machining shops, which take our components and then go and machine them.

我想說，這主要是因為波音公司一直在進行庫存清理。我認為是生產力的提高，我們在第一季還沒有看到這一點。事實上，如果有的話，某些零件的數量會減少一點，特別是在二級機械加工車間，它們接收我們的零件然後去加工。

So as that inventory through the chain has been, I will say, brought down, we have noted that reduction, albeit we are seeing -- we feel as though we're going to see and are seeing already some pickup in that rate as we move forward in the latter part of Q2 into Q3 as the rate -- further improvements occurs in Boeing.

因此，我想說，隨著整個供應鏈中的庫存減少，我們已經注意到庫存的減少，儘管我們看到——我們感覺隨著第二季度後期進入第三季度，我們將會看到並且已經看到庫存率有所回升——波音公司的庫存率將進一步改善。

On Airbus A320, same assumptions as before in the mid-50s, with hopefully improvement as we go through the year. So I think that pretty much covers it.

對於空中巴士 A320，假設與之前相同，均為 50 年代中期，希望隨著時間的推移會有所改善。所以我認為這基本上涵蓋了所有內容。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究公司。

John, the Fastening margins, Doug started to ask on that, but you sort of used the Structures as a case study. If we could focus on Fasteners, did you get much benefit in the quarter from the PCC fire tightness that's likely been created? And have you closed on any share gain contracts under LTA or just general improvement that you saw in that business?

約翰，緊固邊距，道格開始問這個問題，但你有點使用結構作為案例研究。如果我們可以專注於緊固件，那麼本季度您是否從可能創建的 PCC 防火性能中獲得了很大的好處？您是否已經簽訂了 LTA 項下的任何股份收益合同，或者只是看到了該業務的整體改善？

In the quarter, there was nothing of any note. I mean, we did do a few parts where one of our customers had an absolute need, to have something in the quarter. So we did that, but it's not measurable in terms of any meaningful revenue number.

本季並沒有什麼值得注意的事情。我的意思是，我們確實做了一些事情，因為我們的一位客戶確實需要在本季度得到一些東西。所以我們這麼做了，但無法用任何有意義的收入數字來衡量。

We have been booking orders, and I'll say at the moment, we are probably in that between $20 million to $30 million, probably, let's say, mid-20s in terms of orders booked at the moment, but we're still hundreds of parts yet to quote.

我們一直在接受訂單，目前我可以說，我們的訂單金額可能在 2000 萬美元到 3000 萬美元之間，就目前接受的訂單而言，可能在 25 萬美元左右，但我們仍有數百個零件尚未報價。

And so we are hoping that number moves up as we go through the year. And then again, hopeful that by the time we get into midyear and beyond is that we'll start to produce a meaningful quantity to cover some of those SPS-related issues.

因此，我們希望隨著時間的推移，這個數字會上升。然後再次希望，到年中及以後，我們將開始產生有意義的數量來涵蓋一些與 SPS 相關的問題。

Would that target potentially be over $100 million by the end of the year if those quotes --?

如果這些報價是真的，那麼到年底，這個目標有可能超過 1 億美元嗎？--？

No, I don't think so. I think that's too much. It's been signaled I think the whole of their output was somewhere between $150 million and $200 million of revenue. For sure, PCC are going to reallocate some of that production to their other sites. And then obviously, we'll get hopefully a slice of what remains, which can't be done. And it's pretty difficult to take all of that production and move it in in-house because nobody sits there with that capacity. But how it all falls out, I think we'll be well short of the $100 million and maybe I'd -- just total guess is it would be half of that, but I don't really know.

不，我不這麼認為。我認為這太過分了。有跡象表明，我認為他們的總產出收入在 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元之間。可以肯定的是，PCC 將把部分產量重新分配到其其他工廠。然後顯然，我們希望得到剩下的一部分，但這是不可能的。將所有生產轉移到公司內部是相當困難的，因為沒有人擁有這樣的生產能力。但最終結果如何呢？我認為我們的資金將遠遠少於 1 億美元，也許我猜測是這個數字的一半，但我真的不知道。

Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

克莉絲汀‧利瓦格，摩根士丹利。

So John, maybe taking a hindsight view. I mean the earnings power of Howmet today is just so much stronger than the previous forms of this company with Arconic, Alcoa Aerospace over the years. Your market share wins and the engine upgrades, focus on the higher-value tech items and operating efficiencies are clearly paying off.

所以約翰，也許我們應該採取事後諸葛亮的態度。我的意思是，Howmet 今天的盈利能力比該公司多年來與 Arconic、Alcoa Aerospace 合作時的表現要強得多。您的市場份額獲勝、引擎升級、對更高價值技術項目的關注以及營運效率的提高顯然正在獲得回報。

And look, I know you don't give a long-term outlook, but to the extent that you could, how should we think about incremental margins for the company once we do get to the 50-plus per rate per month for the 737 MAX and 10-plus per month for the 787? I mean, how high could margins really go?

我知道您沒有給予長期展望，但是如果您能給出的話，一旦 737 MAX 的產量達到每月 50 多架，787 的產量達到每月 10 多架，我們應該如何考慮公司的增量利潤率？我的意思是，利潤率到底能有多高？

I don't know if I could answer that question given where we are, and it's been moving. I think the majority of the benefits of having Howmet as a pure-play company has been increasingly the luxury of some of the conversations that we're able to have because of that focus and time and knocking problems over one by one.

考慮到我們現在的情況以及事情的發展，我不知道我是否能回答這個問題。我認為，將 Howmet 打造成純粹的公司所帶來的大部分好處在於，我們能夠透過專注和時間進行一些對話，並逐一解決問題。

And so the example I gave, which was just focused on aircraft wheels, I -- obviously, it's a segment of a single plant, and therefore, it's meant to convey what we're doing more generally. But having that -- those sort of conversations and the luxury to have the time to have those sort of conversations is really good.

因此，我給出的例子只是關注飛機輪子，顯然，它是單一工廠的一部分，因此，它旨在更廣泛地傳達我們所做的事情。但是擁有這樣的對話以及充足的時間進行這樣的對話真的很好。

But where you go in the future, it's always a function of what's the angle of demand because margin rate assumptions are affected not only by the, I'll say, internal, let's say, efficiencies that you do, but also it's fundamentally different when you're growing at like a 2% versus a 12%.

但未來的方向始終取決於需求的角度，因為保證金率假設不僅受到內部效率的影響，而且當你的成長率為 2% 和 12% 時，情況也有根本的不同。

And so at the moment, it's really difficult to know how to answer that question when we've seen such violent rate swing assumptions for both widebody and narrowbody over the last few years.

因此，目前，當我們看到過去幾年寬體飛機和窄體飛機的運價波動如此劇烈時，很難知道該如何回答這個問題。

And here we are again now grappling with a set of circumstances that we had not really envisaged in terms of how we manage through the current tariff situation. So it's so difficult to be able to respond and appear any for -- to be in any form of, let's say, clear thinking at this point in time.

現在，我們又一次面臨著一系列我們從未真正預料到的情況，即如何應對當前的關稅狀況​​。因此，在當前這個時間點，很難做出回應，也很難保持任何形式的清晰思維。

And as you know, when we went through inflation in the, let's say, '22 timeframe as that picked up, when you're just getting a dollar for a dollar that impacts and flattens your margin. And if we're successful, I think we are, and it's been interesting. We haven't had a question on tariff so far. But if we get a dollar for a dollar there, again that's a dampener on our margin. So I don't know how to answer the question that would be anything meaningful for you, Kristine.

而且如你所知，當我們在 22 年期間經歷通貨膨脹時，隨著通貨膨脹的加劇，當你以一美元兌換一美元時，你的利潤就會受到影響並趨於平緩。如果我們成功了，我想我們就會成功，而且這很有趣。到目前為止我們還沒有收到有關關稅的問題。但如果我們以一美元換一美元，這又會抑制我們的利潤。所以我不知道如何回答這個問題對你來說是否有意義，克里斯汀。

And maybe pivoting to cash. Despite this uncertain environment, and you had COVID, you had inflation, now you have tariff risks, but at the same time, free cash flow is still positive for the enterprise, you're able to support your CapEx increase with cash generated, and you've got extra. And the balance sheet is underlevered.

或許可以轉向現金。儘管環境不確定，有新冠疫情、通貨膨脹，現在還有關稅風險，但同時，自由現金流對企業來說仍然是正數，你能夠用產生的現金來支持資本支出的增加，而且你還有額外的收入。且資產負債表槓桿率過低。

There's a point in time, as the economic environment stabilizes for demand for aerospace, could we see a period where you could return 100% of excess free cash flow to shareholders? And even if you should do that, the delevering aspect is still pretty meaningful. So how do we think about priorities of capital, especially as we emerge from this period of uncertainty?

在某個時間點，隨著經濟環境對航太需求的穩定，我們是否可以看到一個時期，您可以將 100% 的超額自由現金流回饋給股東？即使你這樣做，去槓桿方面仍然非常有意義。那麼，我們如何看待資本的優先事項，特別是當我們走出這個不確定時期的時候？

I think we've had a pretty good record in returning the cash flow to our owners, and I may have the year wrong, and I'll let Ken have a look. But I think, for example, in 2023, we actually returned more than 100% of the available free cash flows to shareholders. You could say -- I also treat repayment of debt as effectively returning money to shareholders.

我認為我們在向業主返還現金流方面有著相當不錯的記錄，我可能記錯了年份，我會讓肯看看。但我認為，例如在 2023 年，我們實際上向股東返還了超過 100% 的可用自由現金流。您可以說—我也將償還債務視為向股東有效返還資金。

So our conversion. If you look at the five years -- I looked at this recently, if you look at the five-year average, we're exactly at 100% conversion of net income into free cash flow, albeit it's been, let's say, closer to 90% the last year, couple of years since we've picked up the CapEx in particular.

所以我們的轉變。如果你看一下這五年——我最近看了這個問題，如果你看一下五年平均值，我們正好將淨收入 100% 轉化為自由現金流，儘管去年，特別是自從我們開始增加資本支出以來的幾年，這一比例已經接近 90%。

So when I look at our cash flows at the moment, clearly, we're able to afford to invest. And I think that takes away for our customers, any uncertainty about the supply base and for us, in particular, can we invest to meet the future demand.

因此，當我查看我們目前的現金流時，顯然我們有能力進行投資。我認為這可以消除我們的客戶對供應基礎的任何不確定性，特別是對於我們來說，我們是否可以投資以滿足未來的需求。

So when you look at the investment we made back in 2020, that was $0.25 billion in our Engine Products. We are investing more than that currently in our, I'll say, aerospace turbine airfoil increase in production. And that ignores the IGT aspect. So we're able to fund that.

因此，當您查看我們在 2020 年所做的投資時，我們在引擎產品上的投資為 2.5 億美元。我們目前在航空航天渦輪翼型產量增加方面的投資超過了這個數字。這忽略了 IGT 方面。所以我們有能力提供資金。

This year, in terms of the contours of say, capital deployment, clearly, we've already mentioned that we've increased the dividend. I think the buyback of shares will actually be at a higher number than it was in 2024. And at the same time, I expect that our balance sheet will be further strengthened by the end of the year because we've got, I think, improved EBITDA that's within the guide. And we need to look at any further tranche of debt which we want to pay down because I recognize that at 1.1 times net debt to EBITDA, we're a little bit under levered.

今年，就資本配置的輪廓而言，顯然我們已經提到我們增加了股息。我認為股票回購的數量實際上將比 2024 年更高。同時，我預計到今年年底我們的資產負債表將進一步加強，因為我認為我們的 EBITDA 已經提高到指導範圍內。我們需要考慮任何我們想要償還的進一步債務，因為我認識到，當淨債務與 EBITDA 之比為 1.1 倍時，我們的槓桿率有點低。

At the same time, I think given all of the uncertainties, it's appropriate for us to have that as our year-end view currently. And obviously, if some of the immediate gray clouds pass over and there we're looking to further deploy. But it's going to be a good return for shareholders this year with increased share buyback over last year, increased dividend. And so it's all going to be good.

同時，我認為考慮到所有的不確定性，我們目前將其作為年終展望是合適的。顯然，如果一些灰色雲層掠過，我們就會尋求進一步部署。但隨著股票回購比去年增加、股利增加，今年對股東來說將是一個好的回報。所以一切都會好起來的。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

美國銀行的羅恩愛潑斯坦。

So let me ask the tariff question that nobody asked. How are you thinking about that, John? And you guys were, I think, really the first to come out with the force majeure concept on tariffs. And I mean how pass throughable is it? And how are you broadly thinking about it?

因此，讓我問一下沒人問過的關稅問題。約翰，你對此有何看法？我認為你們確實是第一批提出關稅不可抗力概念的人。我的意思是它的穿透能力如何？您對此有何看法？

Yeah. I thought for second, even despite my prompting, that no one would ask the question. So I was going to have to find a way of talking to it so that it could be out there.

是的。我又想，儘管我催促，但沒有人會問這個問題。所以我必須找到一種與它對話的方式，以便它能夠出現在那裡。

I mean first of all, let's say, the wider picture in tariffs has been very fast moving and changing, both in terms of the percentages and also exemptions either by product or by country. So it's been tough to keep up with all of the changes there. But at the same time, we do understand the thrust of the administration to, I'll say, try to reshore production where it's appropriate.

我的意思是，首先，關稅的整體情況一直在快速變化，無論是在百分比方面，還是在按產品或按國家劃分的豁免方面。因此，跟上那裡的所有變化非常困難。但同時，我們確實理解政府的意圖，我想說，嘗試在適當的地方將生產轉移回國內。

Having said that, our duty is to, first of all, minimize the impact, and we do that with a series of trade programs, and I'm sure you're familiar with all of the names, let's say, whether it is the USMCA, whether it's duty drawback, using a bonded warehouse, it's free trade zones. And then you've got some other exemptions, which you can talk to, I could quote like 9801, 2 and 3 exemptions and inward processing relief and so on. There's a lot of programs that you look at and to see, first of all, can you minimize the impact for the company and also for our customers.

話雖如此，我們的職責首先是盡量減少影響，我們透過一系列貿易計劃來實現這一目標，我相信你們熟悉所有這些名稱，比如，無論是 USMCA，還是退稅，使用保稅倉庫，還是自由貿易區。然後你還有一些其他的豁免，你可以談談，我可以引用像 9801、2 和 3 豁免以及進貨加工減免等等。您可以查看許多程序，首先，看看是否可以將對公司和客戶的影響降到最低。

The third point is, clearly, we want to protect Howmet. And when we examined our contracts, while we have very solid, for example, material escalators in place, in certain cases, tariff is not called out in the contract language. And so we wanted to protect for that, so there was no ambiguity.

第三點，顯然，我們想要保護 Howmet。當我們審查合約時，我們發現雖然我們有非常堅實的條款，例如實質的升級條款，但在某些情況下，合約語言中並沒有明確規定關稅。因此，我們希望保護這一點，這樣就不會產生歧義。

And also then, we, as you know, issued letters of force majeure, which we had to issue to all of our customers so that we would have consistent messaging. You can't say to one and not the other, et cetera. So it's a stance in the company.

而且，正如您所知，我們發出了不可抗力信函，我們必須將其發送給所有客戶，以便我們能夠傳達一致的訊息。你不能只說一個，而不說另一個，等等。所以這是公司的一種立場。

So today, let's now move to impact. At the at the gross level, and assuming after all the mitigation actions that we've taken and assuming that after the ninety-day period, there is a bounce back to the previous levels, which hopefully won't be the case, but we envisage the gross impacts for the company in a worst case position to be at about $80 million. And that's if the ninety-day period, it goes and passes, comes and goes and there's a bounce back there. And then the next point would be, so what is the net impact after all the mitigation and then pass through?

那麼今天，讓我們來討論影響。從總體水平來看，假設我們採取了所有緩解措施，並假設在九十天後，會出現反彈至之前的水平（希望不會出現這種情況），但我們預計在最壞的情況下，對公司造成的總體影響約為 8000 萬美元。那就是如果九十天的時間過去了，又來了又去，然後又反彈回來。那麼下一個問題是，所有緩解措施實施後的淨影響是什麼？

We see that as less than $15 million in 2025. And the majority of that $15 million, not all of it, but the majority of it is what's called the drag impact. That is when you incur costs, know, we'll be having to fund certain importers because they haven't got the working capital to pay the duties.

我們預計到 2025 年這一數字將低於 1500 萬美元。這 1500 萬美元中的大部分，不是全部，但大部分是所謂的拖累效應。那時你就會產生成本，知道嗎，我們將不得不為某些進口商提供資金，因為他們沒有足夠的營運資金來支付關稅。

And so we have all of that, and we see it as a drag in what we'll be paying out but then invoicing either as a supplement to existing invoices or surcharges. And obviously, that affects you in the quarter. That's why we see -- you'll see in Q2, we assumed a lower margin rate than we had in Q1, essentially because of tariff drag and then it just goes on for a period of time, but hopefully by -- we get into the second half of the year and into the fourth quarter, then it will be just normal course of business in terms of invoicing recovery, but we'll still have that drag in 2025. So that's how we see it today but of course it could be still fast moving.

所以，我們擁有所有這些，我們認為這會拖累我們的支出，但隨後開立發票要么作為現有發票或附加費的補充。顯然，這會對您本季產生影響。這就是為什麼我們看到——你會看到在第二季度，我們假設的利潤率低於第一季度，主要是因為關稅的拖累，然後這種情況會持續一段時間，但希望到——我們進入下半年和第四季度，那麼就發票恢復而言，這將是正常的業務過程，但到 2025 年我們仍然會受到這種拖累。這就是我們今天所看到的，但當然它可能仍在快速發展。

To give you a little bit more granularity, the majority -- I'll say there's just two real impacts for us. One is the imports from Europe, and the second one are the imports from China, not surprisingly, given the percentage of tariffs for China at the moment. Two of our business units out of the four are primarily affected. And in one, we've already secured individual customer agreements covering more than 90% of revenue to cover the tariffs. So that's one.

為了讓您更詳細地了解，大多數——我會說這對我們來說只有兩個真正的影響。一是從歐洲進口，二是從中國進口，考慮到目前對中國的關稅比例，這並不奇怪。我們的四個業務部門中有兩個受到主要影響。其中，我們已經與個人客戶達成協議，涵蓋了 90% 以上的收入以支付關稅。這就是其中之一。

And then the second one, then about 50% is covered through distribution where it's contract to contract. And therefore, it's a small net overhang, which is yet to be locked down with, let's say, a larger customer. So that's all within the net $15 million that I told you about. So hopefully that gives you a pretty comprehensive walk through from what -- how we see it, what the gross impact might be, what the net impact is and what our assumptions are.

然後第二個，大約 50％ 是透過合約到合約的分銷來覆蓋的。因此，這是一個較小的淨懸垂，尚未與較大的客戶鎖定。這就是我之前告訴你的 1500 萬美元淨額的全部內容。因此，希望這能讓您全面地了解我們如何看待它、其整體影響是什麼、淨影響是什麼以及我們的假設是什麼。

Got you. Got you. And that's helpful. And if I can just one quick follow-on. How exposed to rare earths and maybe rare minerals? I mean is that a question mark for you guys? Or do you have that covered?

明白了。明白了。這很有幫助。我可以再簡單跟進一下。接觸稀土和稀有礦物的程度如何？我的意思是這對你們​​來說是一個問號嗎？或者你已經涵蓋了這一點？

Yeah, there's three that we are, I'll say, worried about. And if I pick the first one, which would be yttrium, then there's gadolinium, and excuse me, there's another one, struggling to remember the name of it. But in the case of two, the supplier has approximately ten years of inventory. So we feel pretty good on that. And the one, and I can't which of those names it was now, maybe it's the gadolinium then.

是的，我想說，有三個是我們擔心的。如果我選第一個，那就是釔，然後是钆，對不起，還有另一個，我很難記住它的名字。但在兩種情況下，供應商都有大約十年的庫存。所以我們對此感覺很好。而其中一個，我現在不知道它叫什麼名字，也許它當時是钆。

That's short maybe less than a year. But there is a -- it's like everything, there is a possibility of, you know, I'll say working around that. So I think, you know, might misread these words, but I think that we're okay. And certainly, in the case, let's say, they start with yttrium, like, a very long, decade of inventory. So, I think that's held in Europe, actually. So we're in, I think, good shape there.

這時間很短，可能不到一年。但是，就像所有事情一樣，存在著一種可能性，你知道，我會說解決這個問題。所以我認為，你知道，可能會誤讀這些話，但我認為我們沒事。當然，在這種情況下，假設他們從釔開始，就像一個長達十年的庫存。所以，我認為這實際上是在歐洲舉行的。所以我認為我們的狀況很好。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

John, I'm going to have you double down on tariffs since you asked.

約翰，既然你提出要求，我就讓你加倍徵收關稅。

Oh no.

哦不。

I know.

我知道。

I want to go back. I thought of the third word, the third rare earth, I could tell you it's erbium, if that means anything to you. It's effects in our titanium shell. But anyway, sorry, carry on.

我想回去。我想到了第三個詞，第三個稀土，我可以告訴你它是鉺，如果這對你來說意味著什麼的話。它對我們的鈦外殼有影響。但無論如何，抱歉，請繼續。

It means absolutely nothing, but thank you. So with the Q1 margins of 28.8%, really strong leverage across the segments, whether it was Fasteners or your poster child. Just curious, relative to the full-year guidance, when we think about first half topline growth of 6%, second half is up 10%, but the margins are implied to step down 100 bps. So from 28.5% to 27.5%, but the net tariff impact is only about 15 bps of that. So how do you think about what else is built into the contingency? And how sustainable are Q1 levels across segments?

這絕對沒有任何意義，但還是謝謝你。因此，第一季的利潤率為 28.8%，各個細分市場的槓桿率都非常高，無論是緊固件還是典型產品。只是好奇，相對於全年指引，當我們想到上半年營業額成長 6% 時，下半年將成長 10%，但利潤率暗示會下降 100 個基點。因此從 28.5% 到 27.5%，但淨關稅影響僅為其中的 15 個基點。那麼您認為應急措施還包含哪些內容呢？各個細分市場的 Q1 水準的可持續性如何？

Yeah. So I think there's a few things going on. There's the, I'll say, dampening effect of tariff and I don't have at hand the same bps you obviously calculated it quicker than I did. But I look at the flattening effect of a dollar for a dollar, then I look at -- the thing we haven't talked about is -- our assumption is that there will be actually a step down of production in our Commercial Truck business.

是的。所以我認為有幾件事正在發生。我想說的是，關稅有抑製作用，而且我手邊沒有相同的基點，你顯然比我算得更快。但我看了一美元對一美元的扁平化效應，然後我看了看——我們還沒有談論的事情是——我們的假設是，我們的商用卡車業務的產量實際上會下降。

While we've been holding onto margin as much as we have, so far it's been good. There are still -- there are points you get to where it's increasingly painful. And so a little bit more caution because of that Commercial Truck business.

儘管我們一直在盡可能地保持利潤率，但到目前為止情況還不錯。仍然存在──存在著越來越痛苦的點。因此，對於商用卡車業務，我們需要更加謹慎。

And of course, we have yet to see the Commercial Aircraft production step up. And you see inventory effect all over. And so I point to several things that's a little bit of concern. So I feel as though it's an appropriate guide and with more concern in the one segment, which is Commercial Truck, and its volumes and what that could do to us.

當然，我們還沒有看到商用飛機產量的增加。你會發現庫存效應隨處可見。因此我指出了幾件令人有點擔憂的事情。因此，我覺得這是一個合適的指南，並且更加關注商用卡車這一領域及其產量以及它可能對我們造成的影響。

Meanwhile, of course, as you know, we are recruiting significantly for the new facilities and building those out. So we put in 500 people in the first quarter. If you asked me to call it again today, I'm thinking an additional 1,000 by the end of the year. And of course, those have to go through not just the recruitment, but the training process. So there's a bit of that.

同時，當然，正如你所知，我們正在為新設施招募大量人才並進行建設。因此我們在第一季就投入了 500 名員工。如果您今天讓我再打一次電話，我想到今年年底還會再增加 1,000 個。當然，這些不僅要經過招募過程，還要經過訓練過程。所以有一點這樣的情況。

So I think it's where we're thinking of -- it's appropriate at this point in time, Sheila, like would we try to do better, of course. But with all the uncertainty, all the things I mentioned, it's -- I think still staying north of that 28% is really good in the balance of the year with all the things that we're trying to do and the run rate that we're try to achieve as we go into 2026.

所以我認為這就是我們正在考慮的——目前這是合適的，希拉，當然，我們會努力做得更好。但是，考慮到所有不確定性，考慮到我提到的所有事情，我認為，考慮到我們正在嘗試做的所有事情以及我們在進入 2026 年時試圖實現的運行率，在今年的平衡中，仍然保持在 28% 以上是非常好的。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

John, within that 33% spares growth figure, can you segment that at all by end market, perhaps just to highlight what end markets were accretive to that 33% growth rate, and which were dilutive. And then secondly, I think Engine Products may have been experiencing some destocking headwinds for cold section engine parts in the LEAP engine. Is that correct? And if so, is that now behind you?

約翰，在 33% 的備件增長數字中，您能否按終端市場對其進行細分，也許只是為了強調哪些終端市場對 33% 的增長率有所貢獻，哪些終端市場有所稀釋。其次，我認為引擎產品部門可能正在經歷 LEAP 引擎冷段引擎零件去庫存的阻力。對嗎？如果是的話，那現在一切都過去了嗎？

Yeah. So dealing with the Engine segment question first. Yes, we have had some of that destocking effects, in particular for the LPT part of the production where, if anything, those LPT parts, which are produced in France were, I think, probably a little bit over produced last year, and given the output of LEAP in the first quarter, which was, I think, 314 OE engines, then that was probably less than we had originally thought. And so the LPT overhang still exists and going with that is the structural castings. So I don't think that's over yet, but it depends upon the rate of increase in production.

是的。因此首先處理引擎部分的問題。是的，我們確實受到了一些去庫存的影響，特別是對於 LPT 部分的生產，如果有的話，我認為，這些在法國生產的 LPT 部件去年可能產量有點過剩，考慮到第一季度 LEAP 的產量，我認為是 314 台 OE 發動機，那麼這個產量可能比我們最初想像的要少。因此 LPT 懸垂部分仍然存在，並且與之相伴的是結構鑄件。所以我認為這還沒有結束，但這取決於產量的成長率。

And so if you reverse engineer the math, which was to get to a -- I think the guidance on LEAP was roughly around 1,670 engines for the year, then clearly, production has got to go well north of 400 engines. So if -- should that occur, then I think as we get into Q3 and Q4, we should be beyond that destocking effect that we've seen, which is because of, let's say, lesser production last year and a modest startup this year. But should we see 450 engines per quarter, then that would be good for us.

因此，如果你進行逆向計算，你會發現——我認為 LEAP 的指導價格是全年約 1,670 台發動機，那麼顯然，產量必須遠遠超過 400 台發動機。因此，如果發生這種情況，那麼我認為，當我們進入第三季和第四季時，我們應該超越我們所看到的去庫存效應，這是因為去年產量較低，今年開工率較低。但如果我們每季看到 450 台發動機，那對我們來說就很好了。

The first part of your question was regarding spares, basically, commercial aero and defense were in the over 40% increase, while the IGT and Oil and Gas were more like a 15% increase. So -- and that's just to do with available capacities at this point and trying to turn up there because there is demand for additional parts for the IGT business in particular. So if you assume 40% for Commercial and Defense, and mid-teens for the IGT and Oil and Gas, that's in our spares business.

問題的第一部分是關於備件的，基本上，商用航空和國防的增幅超過 40%，而 IGT 和石油和天然氣的增幅約為 15%。所以 — — 這只是與目前的可用產能有關，並試圖提高產能，因為 IGT 業務對額外零件有需求。因此，如果假設商業和國防佔 40%，IGT 和石油和天然氣佔 15% 左右，那麼這就是我們的備件業務。

This concludes our question-and-answer session, and the conference has also now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

我們的問答環節到此結束，會議也結束了。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。