Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2024 年第四季和全年電話會議。（操作員指令）。請注意，此過程正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference to Paul Luther, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁保羅路德 (Paul Luther)。請繼續。

Thank you, Anthony. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Giacobbe, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Ken, we will have a question-and-answer session.

謝謝你，安東尼。早安，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2024 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。與我一起出席的還有執行董事長兼執行長約翰‧普蘭特 (John Plant)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Ken Giacobbe。在約翰和肯發表評論之後，我們將進行問答環節。

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings.

我想提醒大家，今天的討論將包含與未來事件和期望有關的前瞻性陳述。您可以在今天的簡報和收益新聞稿以及我們最新的 SEC 文件中找到可能導致公司實際結果與這些預測有重大差異的因素。

In today's presentation, references to EBITDA, operating income and EPS means adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, adjusted operating income, excluding special items and adjusted EPS, excluding special items. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation.

在今天的演示中，對 EBITDA、營業收入和 EPS 的引用是指調整後的 EBITDA（不包括特殊項目）、調整後的營業收入（不包括特殊項目）和調整後的 EPS（不包括特殊項目）。這些指標屬於我們在討論中納入的非公認會計準則財務指標。在今天的新聞稿和今天的簡報的附錄中可以找到與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

說完這些，我想把電話轉給約翰。

Thanks, PT, and welcome, everybody, to today's call. Let's move to slide 4, and I'll begin commentary on our fourth quarter.

謝謝 PT，歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議。讓我們轉到投影片 4，我將開始評論我們的第四季。

We closed out 2024 with healthy results, which exceeded the high end of our guide. Revenues was a record as was EBITDA, EBITDA margin, and earnings per share. Fourth quarter earnings per share were $0.74, an increase of 40% over the prior year, and that concludes a year at $2.69 and a good year, as we put it. For the full year, this represents a 46% increase year-over-year and is 25% higher than our initial guide for 2024. Operating margin for the quarter was 23%.

我們以健康的業績結束了 2024 年，超過了我們指南的高端。營收、EBITDA、EBITDA 利潤率和每股盈餘均創歷史新高。第四季每股收益為 0.74 美元，比上年增長 40%，全年每股收益為 2.69 美元，正如我們所說，這是好的一年。就全年而言，這比去年同期成長了 46%，比我們對 2024 年的初步預測高出 25%。本季營業利益率為23%。

Free cash flow for the year was also a record at $977 million, representing an 88% conversion of net income. Average free cash flow conversion of net income over the last five years has been approximately 100%. Of the $977 million of free cash flow generated in the year, all was deployed to share repurchases, debt reduction and dividends.

全年自由現金流也創下 9.77 億美元的新高，佔淨收入的 88%。過去五年淨收入的平均自由現金流轉換率約為 100%。當年產生的9.77億美元自由現金流全用於股票回購、債務削減和股利。

During 2024, Howmet repurchased $500 million of common stock, of which $190 million was completed in Q4. Howmet also reduced debt by $365 million and paid $109 million in dividends. Regarding dividends, we recently announced a 25% increase in the quarterly common stock dividend, which will be paid later this month. The balance sheet continues to strengthen with leverage of net debt-to-EBITDA improving to 1.4 times.

2024 年，Howmet 回購了價值 5 億美元的普通股，其中 1.9 億美元於第四季完成。Howmet 也減少了 3.65 億美元的債務，並支付了 1.09 億美元的股息。關於股息，我們最近宣布將季度普通股股息提高25%，並將於本月稍後支付。資產負債表持續增強，淨債務與 EBITDA 比率提高至 1.4 倍。

Ken will now provide additional color regarding end market revenues in the quarter and year before moving to segment results. The one segment I'll highlight is the improvement in profitability of the structures segment since it showed the largest quarterly increase. This was clearly welcome and helps with our confidence moving into 2025. The commentary regarding outlook will be provided later after Ken's comments.

在介紹分部業績之前，肯將提供有關本季和年度終端市場收入的更多詳細資訊。我要強調的一個部分是結構部分的獲利能力的提高，因為它顯示出最大的季度增幅。這顯然是值得歡迎的，並有助於我們充滿信心地邁向 2025 年。關於展望的評論將在 Ken 的評論之後提供。

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. Let's move to slide 5.

謝謝你，約翰。大家早安。讓我們翻到幻燈片 5。

So another solid quarter for Howmet. End markets continue to be healthy. We are well positioned for the future and continue to invest for growth. Revenue was up 9% in the fourth quarter and up 12% for the full year. Commercial aerospace growth remained strong throughout 2024 with revenue up 13% in the fourth quarter and up 20% for the full year, driven by all three aerospace segments.

因此，Howmet 又迎來了一個業績穩健的季度。終端市場繼續保持健康。我們已為未來做好了準備，並將繼續為成長而投資。第四季營收成長 9%，全年營收成長 12%。受三大航空航天部門的推動，商用航空航太成長在 2024 年全年保持強勁，第四季營收成長 13%，全年營收成長 20%。

Defense aerospace growth accelerated in the fourth quarter and was up 22%. For the full year, defense aerospace was up 15% driven by fighter programs and fighter engine spares demand.

國防航空航太產業第四季成長加速，成長了22%。受戰鬥機項目和戰鬥機發動機備件需求的推動，國防航空航天業全年增長了 15%。

Commercial transportation was expected to be challenging, as revenues were down 12% in the fourth quarter and down 7% for the full year. Although down, we continued to outperform the market with Howmet's premium products.

商業運輸預計將面臨挑戰，因為第四季度收入下降了 12%，全年收入下降了 7%。儘管有所下滑，但我們憑藉 Howmet 的優質產品繼續跑贏大盤。

I would also note that despite the challenging market, Howmet's wheels segment delivered a healthy 27.2% EBITDA margin for both the fourth quarter and the full year.

我還要指出的是，儘管市場充滿挑戰，Howmet 的車輪部門在第四季度和全年都實現了 27.2% 的健康 EBITDA 利潤率。

Finally, the industrial and other markets were up 11% in the fourth quarter, driven by oil and gas, up 22%; General Industrial, up 12%; and IGT, up 5%. For the full year, the industrial and other markets were up 9%, driven by oil and gas, up 19%; IGT, up 7%; and General Industrial up 5%.

最後，工業和其他市場在第四季度上漲了11%，其中石油和天然氣上漲了22%；一般工業，上漲12%； IGT 上漲 5%。全年來看，工業及其他市場上漲 9%，其中石油和天然氣市場上漲 19%； IGT，上漲7%；而一般工業則上漲 5%。

Within our markets, we had robust spares growth. The combination of commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, and IGT spares, was up approximately 25% for the full year to $1.28 billion. Spares revenue in 2024 represented 17% of total revenue and accelerated in the second half of the year. As a compare, spares revenue in 2019 was 11% of total revenue.

在我們的市場中，我們的備件成長強勁。商用航空航太、國防航空航太和 IGT 備件總額全年上漲約 25%，達 12.8 億美元。2024 年備件收入佔總收入的 17%，並在下半年加速成長。相較之下，2019 年的備件收入佔總收入的 11%。

In summary, continued strong performance in commercial aerospace, defense aerospace, and industrial, partially offset by commercial transportation.

綜上所述，商業航空航太、國防航空航太和工業領域持續表現強勁，但商業運輸部分抵消了這一表現。

Now let's move to slide 6, starting with the P&L. The focus of my comments will be on full-year performance, full-year revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, and earnings per share were all records.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 6，從損益表開始。我的評論重點將放在全年業績上，全年營收、EBITDA、EBITDA 利潤率和每股盈餘都創下紀錄。

On a year-over-year basis, revenue was up 12% and EBITDA outpaced revenue growth of 27%, while absorbing approximately 700 net new employees. The Engines segment added approximately 1,205 employees while we reduced employees in Fasteners, Structures, and Wheels, as we improved labor productivity and are seeing the benefits of our Capex investments.

與去年同期相比，營收成長了 12%，EBITDA 超過了營收成長 27%，同時淨吸收了約 700 名新員工。由於我們提高了勞動生產力，並且看到了資本支出投資的收益，引擎部門增加了約 1,205 名員工，同時我們減少了緊固件、結構和車輪部門的員工。

Full year EBITDA margin increased 310 basis points to 25.8% with a fourth quarter exit rate of 26.8%. For the full year, incremental flow-through of revenue to EBITDA was excellent at approximately 50% year-over-year. Earnings per share was $2.69 per share, which was up a healthy 46% year-over-year.

全年 EBITDA 利潤率增加 310 個基點至 25.8%，第四季退出率為 26.8%。全年來看，營收向 EBITDA 的增量流轉情況良好，較去年同期成長約 50%。每股收益為 2.69 美元，年增 46%。

Now let's cover the balance sheet and cash flow. The balance sheet continues to strengthen. Free cash flow for the year was a record $977 million, which exceeded the high end of guidance. Free cash flow conversion of net income was 88%, as we continued to deliver on our long-term target of 90%. Capex investments in the year were a record $321 million, up approximately $100 million year-over-year as we continue to invest for growth. The year-end cash balance was a healthy $565 million.

現在讓我們來看看資產負債表和現金流。資產負債表持續增強。全年自由現金流達到創紀錄的 9.77 億美元，超過了預期上限。淨收入的自由現金流轉換率為 88%，我們繼續實現 90% 的長期目標。由於我們繼續投資以實現成長，今年的資本支出達到創紀錄的 3.21 億美元，比去年同期增加約 1 億美元。年底現金餘額高達 5.65 億美元。

Net debt to trailing EBITDA continues to improve and was at a record low of 1.4 times. All long-term debt is unsecured and at fixed rates.

淨負債與息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 比率持續改善，並達到 1.4 倍的歷史低點。所有長期債務均為無擔保且利率固定。

Howmet's improved financial leverage and strong cash generation were reflected in S&P's Q4 rating upgrade from BBB- to BBB. As you will also recall in Q3, Moody's upgraded Howmet two additional notches in investment grade up to Baa1.

Howmet 的財務槓桿率提高和強勁的現金產生能力反映在標準普爾將第四季度的評級從 BBB- 上調至 BBB 中。您還會記得，在第三季度，穆迪將 Howmet 的投資等級提高了兩個等級，達到 Baa1。

Liquidity remains strong, with a healthy cash balance and a $1 billion undrawn revolver, complemented by the flexibility of a $1 billion commercial paper program.

流動性仍然強勁，擁有健康的現金餘額和 10 億美元未提取的循環信貸額度，並輔以 10 億美元商業票據計劃的靈活性。

Regarding capital deployment, we deployed approximately $975 million of cash to common stock repurchases, debt paydown, and quarterly dividends. For the year, we repurchased $500 million of common stock at an average price of $87 per share. Q4 was the 15th consecutive quarter of common stock repurchases. The average diluted share count improved to a record low exit rate of 408 million shares.

在資本配置方面，我們部署了約 9.75 億美元現金用於普通股回購、債務償還和季度股息。今年，我們以平均每股 87 美元的價格回購了價值 5 億美元的普通股。第四季是連續第15季進行普通股回購。平均稀釋股份數量改善至 4.08 億股，創歷史新低。

Additionally, in January 2025, we repurchased an additional $50 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $116 per share. Remaining authorization from the Board of Directors for share repurchases is approximately $2.15 billion as of the end of January.

此外，2025 年 1 月，我們以平均每股約 116 美元的價格回購了價值 5,000 萬美元的普通股。截至 1 月底，董事會剩餘的股票回購授權約為 21.5 億美元。

For the year, we reduced debt by $365 million. This included a partial pay down in Q4 of $60 million of the US dollar-denominated term loan that's due in November of 2026. The combined debt actions for the year will reduce annualized interest expense drag by approximately $37 million.

今年，我們減少了 3.65 億美元的債務。其中包括在第四季度償還 2026 年 11 月到期的 6,000 萬美元美元定期貸款的部分款項。今年的綜合債務行動將減少年度利息支出拖累約 3,700 萬美元。

Finally, we continue to be confident in free cash flow. For the year, we paid $109 million in dividends, which was an increase of 53% year-over-year from $0.17 per share to $0.26 per share. We also recently announced a 25% increase in the quarterly common stock dividend from $0.08 a share to $0.10 per share.

最後，我們繼續對自由現金流充滿信心。今年，我們支付了 1.09 億美元的股息，年增 53%，從每股 0.17 美元增至每股 0.26 美元。我們最近也宣布將季度普通股股息從每股 0.08 美元增加 25% 至每股 0.10 美元。

Now let's move to slide 7 to cover the segment results for the fourth quarter. Engine products delivered another strong quarter. Revenue increased 14% year-over-year to $972 million. Commercial aerospace was up 13% and defense aerospace was up 19%, driven by engine spares growth. Oil and gas was up 31%and IGT was up 5%. Demand continues to be strong across all of our Engines markets, with record engine spares volume.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 7，介紹第四季的分部業績。引擎產品本季再創佳績。營收年增14%至9.72億美元。受發動機備件成長的推動，商用航空航太產業成長了 13%，國防航空航太產業成長了 19%。石油和天然氣上漲 31%，IGT 上漲 5%。我們所有引擎市場的需求持續強勁，引擎備件數量創下新高。

EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 30% year-over-year to $302 million. EBITDA margin increased 380 basis points year-over-year to 31.1%, while absorbing approximately 220 net new employees in the quarter.

EBITDA 成長速度超過營收成長，年增 30%，達到 3.02 億美元。EBITDA 利潤率年增 380 個基點至 31.1%，同時本季淨吸收了約 220 名新員工。

For the full year, revenue was up 14% to $3.7 billion, EBITDA was up 30% to $1.15 billion, and EBITDA margin was 30.8%, which was up approximately 360 basis points year-over-year. All were records for the Engine products segment. Moreover, the Engine product segment added approximately 1,205 net new employees to support future growth.

全年營收成長14%至37億美元，EBITDA成長30%至11.5億美元，EBITDA利潤率為30.8%，較去年成長約360個基點。所有這些都是引擎產品領域的記錄。此外，引擎產品部門新增約 1,205 名新員工，以支持未來的成長。

Now let's move to slide 8. Fastening systems had another strong quarter. Revenue increased 11% year-over-year to $401 million. Commercial aerospace was up 17%, including the impact of the wide-body recovery and the Boeing strike. General industrial was up 32%. Defense aerospace was up 2% and commercial transportation, which represents approximately 14% of fasteners revenue was down 13%.

現在我們來看第 8 張投影片。緊固件系統又迎來了一個強勁的季度。營收年增 11% 至 4.01 億美元。商用航空上漲了 17%，其中包括寬體飛機復甦和波音罷工的影響。一般工業上漲32%。國防航空航太業成長了 2%，而佔緊固件收入約 14% 的商業運輸業下降了 13%。

Year-over-year, EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 39% to $111 million. EBITDA margin increased 550 basis points year-over-year to a healthy 27.7%.

與去年同期相比，EBITDA 成長 39%，達到 1.11 億美元，超過營收成長。EBITDA 利潤率年增 550 個基點，達到健康的 27.7%。

The fasteners team has continued to expand margins through commercial and operational improvements. For the full year, revenue was up 17% to $1.6 billion. EBITDA was up 46% to $406 million, and EBITDA margin was 25.8%, which was up approximately 520 basis points year-over-year. The fasteners team delivered solid year-over-year revenue and EBITDA growth while reducing headcount by approximately 135 employees.

緊固件團隊透過商業和營運改善繼續擴大利潤率。全年營收成長 17%，達到 16 億美元。EBITDA 成長 46% 至 4.06 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率為 25.8%，較去年同期成長約 520 個基點。緊固件團隊實現了穩健的年收入和 EBITDA 成長，同時員工人數減少了約 135 人。

Now let's go to slide 9. Engineered structures performance continues to improve. Revenue increased 13% year-over-year to $275 million. Commercial aerospace was up 9% and defense aerospace was up 51%, primarily driven by the F-35 program.

現在我們來看第 9 張投影片。工程結構的性能不斷提高。營收年增13%至2.75億美元。商業航空航太業上漲 9%，國防航空航太業上漲 51%，主要受 F-35 計畫的推動。

Year-over-year, segment EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 55% to $51 million. EBITDA margin increased 500 basis points to 18.5% as we continue to optimize the Structures manufacturing footprint and rationalize the product mix to maximize profitability.

與去年同期相比，該部門的 EBITDA 成長 55%，達到 5,100 萬美元，超過了營收的成長。隨著我們繼續優化結構製造足跡並合理化產品組合以實現盈利能力最大化，EBITDA 利潤率增加了 500 個基點，達到 18.5%。

For the full year, revenue was up 21% to $1.1 billion. EBITDA was up 47% to $166 million and EBITDA margin was 15.6%. EBITDA margin was up approximately 270 basis points year-over-year, and headcount was reduced by approximately 235 employees year-over-year. The team continues to make progress, and we expect continued improvements in 2025.

全年營收成長 21% 至 11 億美元。EBITDA 成長 47% 至 1.66 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率為 15.6%。EBITDA 利潤率年增約 270 個基點，員工人數較去年同期減少約 235 人。團隊不斷取得進步，我們期待 2025 年能繼續進步。

Finally, let's move to slide 10. Forged wheels revenue was down 12% year-over-year as the slowdown continues to take hold of the commercial transportation market. EBITDA decreased 8%, however, EBITDA margin continued to be healthy at 27.2%, as the team flexed costs and expanded margins through commercial and operational performance.

最後，我們來看第 10 張投影片。由於商業運輸市場持續放緩，鍛造車輪收入年減 12%。EBITDA 下降了 8%，但由於團隊透過商業和營運績效調整成本並擴大利潤率，EBITDA 利潤率繼續保持健康的 27.2%。

For the full year, revenue was down 8% to $1.1 billion. EBITDA was down 7% to $287 million. EBITDA margin for the full year was a healthy 27.2% in a challenging market, and was up approximately 30 basis points year-over-year.

全年營收下降 8% 至 11 億美元。EBITDA 下降 7% 至 2.87 億美元。在充滿挑戰的市場環境下，全年 EBITDA 利潤率達到健康的 27.2%，較去年同期成長約 30 個基點。

Lastly, before turning it back over to John, I wanted to highlight a couple of items that are in the Appendix. First, the operational tax rate for 2024 was 20.5%, which represents a 170-basis-point improvement year-over-year. Second, pretax return on net assets improved by 800 basis points from 33% in 2023 to 41% in 2024 driven by strong profitability and the optimization of working capital and fixed assets.

最後，在將其交還給約翰之前，我想強調一下附錄中的幾個項目。首先，2024年的營業稅率為20.5%，年比提高了170個基點。其次，受強勁利潤能力以及營運資金和固定資產最佳化的推動，稅前淨資產回報率從 2023 年的 33% 提高 800 個基點至 2024 年的 41%。

So with that, let me now turn it back over to John.

那麼，現在讓我把話題交還給約翰。

Thanks, Ken, and let's move to slide 11. I'm going to provide some commentary by each market segment, and also then move to specific guidance. But before I do that, maybe it's worthwhile, just making sure that everybody understands, that we did again outgrow each of our respective markets in 2024, and that's been a theme of recent years, and we expect to do so again in 2025.

謝謝，肯，讓我們轉到第 11 張投影片。我將針對每個細分市場提供一些評論，然後提供具體指導。但在此之前，也許值得一提的是，我們只是想確保每個人都明白，2024 年我們的成長確實再次超越了各自的市場，這是近年來的一個主題，我們預計 2025 年我們的成長將再次超越各自的市場。

Let's start with the commercial aerospace segment. Air travel and freight transportation have continued to grow, especially in Asia Pacific. Backlogs for Airbus, Boeing, and COMAC have never been higher, principally due to the underbuild of aircraft schedules by all of the aircraft manufacturers, but most notably by Boeing, given the strike, which commenced in late quarter 3 and which lasted for almost two months, and was then followed by a further month of employee retraining with no aircraft build. Hence, backlog increased again.

讓我們從商業航空航太領域開始。航空旅行和貨運持續成長，尤其是在亞太地區。空中巴士、波音和中國商飛的積壓訂單從未如此之高，主要是因為所有飛機製造商的飛機時刻表都不足，但最明顯的是波音，因為罷工始於第三季度末，持續了近兩個月，隨後又進行了一個月的員工再培訓，但沒有製造飛機。因此，積壓訂單再次增加。

Given the continued production of many parts by suppliers, starting with Spirit AeroSystems during this production gap, the runway is wide open for builds to now increase. Airbus came close to their revised 770 aircraft build and show promise going into 2025. COMAC delivered 10 C919 aircraft in 2024 principally to Chinese airlines, and we can expect higher production volume in 2025.

鑑於供應商繼續生產許多零件（從 Spirit AeroSystems 開始），在生產間隙期間，生產量預計將大幅增加。空中巴士公司已接近完成其修訂後的 770 架飛機的製造，並預計在 2025 年實現這一目標。中國商飛於 2024 年向中國航空公司交付了 10 架 C919 飛機，我們預計 2025 年的產量將更高。

While we have an estimated OEM build volume for each aircraft, perhaps the most interesting build assumption is the Boeing 737 MAX, which we see as about 25 aircraft per month on average for the year, but skewed towards the second half. This assumption enables investors to adjust their models up or down according to their own assumptions. Of course, should Boeing build at rate 38 or indeed rate 42, we will match this.

雖然我們對每架飛機的 OEM 製造量都有預估，但最有趣的製造假設或許是波音 737 MAX，我們預計其全年平均每月產量約為 25 架，但下半年產量會有所傾斜。這個假設使得投資人能夠根據自己的假設向上或向下調整模型。當然，如果波音的生產速度達到 38 甚至 42，我們也會進行配對。

I'll now touch on spares before moving to defense. Our total revenue from spares was $1.28 billion, representing 17% of Howmet revenue. Spares revenue increased approximately 25% in the year, and with acceleration in the second half of 2024. We envision spares to continue to be healthy again in 2025 and growing towards our previously stated projection of 20% of Howmet revenue.

在討論防守之前，我現在先談談備件。我們的備件總收入為 12.8 億美元，佔 Howmet 收入的 17%。備件收入今年成長了約 25%，並將在 2024 年下半年加速成長。我們預計備件在 2025 年將繼續保持健康，並朝著我們先前預測的 Howmet 收入的 20% 成長。

Defense was also a source of strength last year, and we see this continuing into 2025 for both legacy aircraft and the F-35. In 2025 or early 2026 at the latest, we should see the crossover occur where spares volumes for F-35 will exceed the F-35 OE engine airfoil revenues. Then it will continue to grow as the fleet of aircraft expands worldwide.

國防也是去年的一大優勢，我們預計到 2025 年，無論是傳統飛機還是 F-35，這種勢頭都將持續下去。最遲在 2025 年或 2026 年初，我們應該會看到交叉出現，即 F-35 的備件量將超過 F-35 OE 發動機翼型收入。隨著全球飛機機隊的擴張，這一數字也將持續成長。

Industrial is expected to be up mid-single digits, led by demand from IGT and oil and gas. I provided extensive commentary regarding the future IGT demand during the November earnings call. Since then, the overall picture has become even brighter for electricity demand from data centers due to the incoming US administration's focus, which is less on renewable subsidies and more on fossil fuels. We see demand increasing from running the existing fleet of turbine harder and hence, more spares being required.

預計工業將出現中等個位數成長，主要受 IGT 和石油天然氣需求的帶動。我在 11 月的收益電話會議上對未來 IGT 需求提供了廣泛的評論。自那時起，由於新美國政府的重點從再生能源補貼轉向化石燃料，資料中心的電力需求整體前景變得更加光明。我們發現，現有渦輪機機組的運作需求不斷增加，因此需要更多的備用零件。

Moreover, we expect increases in new turbine builds to increase globally in 2025, 2026, and '27 and beyond. The growth requirements for increased megawatts of demand was set out in November, while the change is currently towards natural gas and hence favors Howmet.

此外，我們預計 2025 年、2026 年、2027 年及以後全球新風力渦輪機的建造數量將會增加。增加兆瓦需求的成長要求已於 11 月提出，而目前的變化是向天然氣方向發展，因此對 Howmet 有利。

The expected growth in IGT drives an increase in IGT Capex investment for 2025 compared to 2024. As in 2024, Capex investments are linked to customer contracts. As the global leader in IGT turbine blades, we'll continue to focus on additional global capacity demand for Siemens, Mitsubishi Heavy, GE Vernova, and Ansaldo. We're optimistic about the next few years of IGT growth, and Howmet is well positioned for both future OE build and for spares growth.

IGT 的預期成長將推動 2025 年 IGT 資本支出投資相對於 2024 年增加。與 2024 年一樣，資本支出投資與客戶合約掛鉤。作為 IGT 渦輪葉片的全球領導者，我們將繼續關注西門子、三菱重工、通用電氣 Vernova 和安薩爾多的全球額外產能需求。我們對未來幾年的 IGT 成長持樂觀態度，Howmet 在未來 OE 建置和備件成長方面都處於有利地位。

Moving to commercial truck, demand continues to be muted as expected. We were pleased with our ability to increase wheels margin despite the severity of the downturn in Q3 and Q4, and printing a very respectable 27.2% EBITDA margin for the quarter. The outlook is unchanged, with some return to growth expected in the second half of 2025.

至於商用卡車，需求如預期的那樣繼續低迷。儘管第三季和第四季經濟嚴重下滑，但我們仍很高興能夠提高車輪利潤率，並且本季的 EBITDA 利潤率達到了非常可觀的 27.2%。前景保持不變，預計 2025 年下半年將恢復成長。

In summary, we see demand increasing in 2025 with the profit being back-end loaded, principally due to the Boeing build and likely increase in build moving into 2026, with the increased second half truck builds as well. The overall midpoint of the revenue guide has moved upwards from 7.5% to 8% plus or minus, compared with the November estimate. And this extra growth is on top of closing out a very strong fourth quarter of 2024.

總而言之，我們預計 2025 年需求將會增加，利潤將後期增加，這主要是由於波音公司的生產，並且到 2026 年生產量可能會增加，下半年卡車生產量也會增加。與 11 月的估計值相比，收入指南的總體中點已從 7.5% 上調至 8% 左右。這一額外成長是在 2024 年第四季表現非常強勁的基礎上實現的。

Moreover, we expect in 2025 first quarter, we expect revenues to be $1.935 billion, plus or minus $10 million; EBITDA of $520 million, plus or minus $5 million; and earnings per share of $0.76, plus or minus $0.01. The guided Q1 incrementals are healthy at over 70%.

此外，我們預計 2025 年第一季營收為 19.35 億美元，上下浮動 1,000 萬美元；EBITDA 為 5.2 億美元，上下浮動 500 萬美元；每股收益 0.76 美元，上下浮動 0.01 美元。第一季的增量預期達到 70% 以上，狀況良好。

And for the year, revenue to be $8.03 billion, plus or minus $100 million; EBITDA of $2.13 billion, plus or minus $25 million; and earnings per share of $3.17, plus or minus $0.04. Finally, free cash flow is expected to be above $1 billion at $1.075 billion, plus or minus $50 million. The full year incrementals are healthy at approximately 36% in the guide while we await more clarity on the second half and in particular, the commercial aerospace narrow-body builds.

全年營收預估為 80.3 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元； EBITDA 為 21.3 億美元，上下浮動 2,500 萬美元；每股收益 3.17 美元，上下浮動 0.04 美元。最後，自由現金流預計將超過 10 億美元，達到 10.75 億美元，上下浮動 5,000 萬美元。全年增量在指南中約為 36%，處於健康水平，同時我們等待下半年，特別是商用航空窄體飛機製造情況的更多明朗資訊。

Before moving to capital allocation, a couple of comments on tariffs. We're closely monitoring the situation and the situation, as everybody knows, remains fluid, but we expect to be well positioned due to our strong commercial agreements and the mission-critical nature of our products. We'll pass on additional costs through to our customers. We've demonstrated our ability to do so and quickly pass on costs following the steep inflation that we saw in 2022.

在討論資本配置之前，我想先對關稅發表幾點評論。我們正在密切關注局勢，眾所周知，局勢仍在不斷變化，但由於我們強大的商業協議和我們產品的關鍵任務性質，我們預計能夠處於有利地位。我們會將額外成本轉嫁給客戶。我們已經證明了我們有能力做到這一點，並在 2022 年經歷大幅通貨膨脹後迅速轉嫁成本。

I'll make a few closing comments on capital allocation for 2025 before moving to Q&A. I invite you to view the 2025 summary slide for commentary. The Howmet balance sheet is strong, we are rated well into investment grade, and net leverage closed at 1.4 times net debt to EBITDA. 2025 sets up well, but with a back-end load.

在進入問答環節之前，我將對 2025 年的資本配置做一些總結性的評論。我邀請您查看 2025 年摘要幻燈片以獲取評論。Howmet 的資產負債表表現強勁，我們的評級達到投資等級，淨槓桿比率為淨債務與 EBITDA 比率的 1.4 倍。 2025 年設定良好，但後端負載較大。

The dividend payout has been increased by 25% starting in Q1, and hence, the dividend payout for the year will repatriate further funds to shareholders. The share buyback program will continue, with plenty of availability under the current Board authorization. We expect that the total buyback in 2025 will exceed the buyback of 2024. Debt paydown will be muted compared to 2024. This provides the company with both good shareholder return profile and also great optionality.

從第一季開始，股息支付增加了 25%，因此，今年的股息支付將向股東返還更多資金。股票回購計畫將繼續進行，在目前董事會的授權下，有足夠的可用資金。我們預計2025年的總回購規模將超過2024年的回購規模。與 2024 年相比，債務償還速度將會放緩。這為公司帶來了良好的股東回報以及極大的選擇性。

And with that said, let's move to questions. Thank you.

好了，現在就讓我們開始提問吧。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Doug Harned, Bernstein.

（操作員指示）Doug Harned，Bernstein。

On fastening systems, you came up -- you've got EBITDA margins of 28%, roughly. I mean this is -- has kind of been a big step up. Now you've got, I think, a mix improvement working here with more A350, 787 fasteners. But can you talk about, is there anything unusual that happened in the quarter? Or are you really on a path here to get materially higher margins going forward, either from mix, performance improvement, or operating leverage?

在緊固系統方面，您的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 28%。我的意思是，這是一個很大的進步。現在，我認為，您已經獲得了混合改進，使用了更多的 A350、787 緊固件。但是您能談談本季發生了哪些不尋常的事情嗎？或者您真的走上了一條未來大幅提高利潤率的道路，無論是透過產品組合、性能改進還是營運槓桿？

I think when I look back at our Fastener business, the track we're on is really very good, Doug. The focus in the business from all aspects, suppose operational, and productivity improvements, has been even better than I had expected. And combine that with, I will say commercial discipline, has enabled us to move a long way along the pathway to restoring our previous margin highs. So I'm pleased with that.

我認為，當我回顧我們的緊固件業務時，我們所走的路確實非常好，道格。從各個方面來看，業務重點，包括營運和生產力改進，都比我預期的要好。再加上商業紀律，我們得以在恢復先前利潤率高點的道路上取得長足進步。所以我對此感到很高興。

I don't think that the wide-body mix has changed fundamentally yet for the positive. I mean there's a small positive exchange relative to narrow body that's gone on during 2024, but I do expect that the builds for 2025 to be better than 2024. So I think there's still some positive mix that's there for us, especially as we look forward to hopefully a rate 10 and maybe more for the Boeing 787.

我認為寬體飛機的組合還沒有根本性的正向改變。我的意思是，2024 年相對於窄體飛機而言，出現了小幅積極的交流，但我確實預計 2025 年的建造情況會比 2024 年更好。因此我認為我們仍然有一些積極的因素，特別是當我們期待波音 787 的運力達到 10 甚至更高時。

And also, I think you'll recognize the Airbus future monthly build has been stated to move to 12 aircraft a month by 2027, and that compares to probably last year at about 5 a month. So I think the rate of increase for wide-body is going to pick up over the next two to three years, and that should be for a further benefit for the business. Naturally, the rate of increase in margin, I will say to be, I would say less aggressive in the future, but I don't think that we're finished yet.

而且，我想你會意識到，空中巴士未來每月的飛機產量預計將在 2027 年達到 12 架，而去年大概是每月 5 架左右。因此我認為寬體飛機的成長率將會在未來兩到三年內回升，這將為業務帶來進一步的利益。當然，我認為未來利潤率的成長率會不那麼激進，但我認為我們還沒有完成。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究公司。

John, just looking at your implied guidance, after the first quarter, it implies margins start to step down and certainly incrementals are half of what you're implying for the first quarter. Can you rationalize some of that for us? What's growing? What's with the headwind? And -- or is it more conservatism, given your lack of visibility beyond the first quarter?

約翰，僅看一下您隱含的指導，在第一季之後，它意味著利潤率開始下降，而且增量肯定是您隱含的第一季利潤的一半。您能為我們解釋一下其中的一些原因嗎？什麼在生長？逆風是怎麼回事？或者說，考慮到第一季之後的前景不明朗，這是否更加保守？

It probably would have been fairly easy for us to have been a little bit more optimistic. But at the same time, there's a lot of things going on during 2025. The rate of growth could be materially changed by say additional narrow-body builds, as an example. We've chosen to be fairly conservative in that view for our financial guide.

對我們來說，可能更容易變得更樂觀。但同時，2025年還有很多事情發生。例如，透過增加窄體飛機的製造，成長率可能會發生顯著變化。在我們的財務指南中，我們選擇採取相當保守的觀點。

And also, there's always a possibility of some cutbacks, given the statements of the CFO at Boeing regarding excess inventory, albeit I don't think that's going to be a problem, but you never know. And therefore, with the lack of visibility that we, and I suspect other suppliers have, we wanted to be a little bit cautious in that regard. So we don't want to get ahead of ourselves. And so that's the way I think about the narrow-body side.

而且，考慮到波音公司財務長關於庫存過剩的聲明，總是存在一些削減的可能性，儘管我認為這不會成為問題，但誰也不知道。因此，由於我們（我懷疑其他供應商也存在這種情況）缺乏透明度，我們希望在這方面採取謹慎態度。所以我們不想超越自己。這就是我對窄體飛機的看法。

Again, on wide-body, it could be better, but let's wait and see to be clear that some of the supply chain challenges that have been quoted publicly, whether it's been seats or fuselage sections or say, heat exchange, all these sort of things, which have been mentioned. Are those now clear? And so we want to be a little bit cautious there as well.

再說一次，對於寬體飛機來說，情況可能會更好，但讓我們拭目以待，以明確一些已公開提到的供應鏈挑戰，無論是座椅還是機身部分，還是熱交換，所有這些事情，都已被提及。現在這些清楚了嗎？因此，我們也希望在這方面保持謹慎。

And also, as you know, we're building out a couple of new manufacturing plants this year, facilitizing them. And so I want to be a little bit cautious in that regard until we've got our feet well under the -- and firmly placed under the table on those two things. I It's also, as you know, always a little bit uncomfortable having a back-end load to these things.

而且，正如您所知，我們今年正在建造幾個新的製造工廠，為它們提供便利。因此，我希望在這方面保持謹慎，直到我們在這兩件事上站穩腳跟並取得穩固的進展。如你所知，這些事情的後端負載總是有點不舒服。

So at this stage, I think we've given best visibility that we have, which is another strong step forward in Q1, and choose to be a little bit more muted in the balance of the year until we know a bit more about the profile of the year and how it all pans out.

因此，在現階段，我認為我們已經提供了最好的可見性，這是第一季向前邁出的又一大步，並選擇在今年的平衡中保持低調，直到我們對今年的概況和一切如何發展有更多的了解。

And as you know, we also said the second half of the year for commercial truck is also expected to improve. But again, it's an expectation, not knowledge. And so again, there's no need for us to get ahead of ourselves until we've got better visibility of all of the things to play out in this year, which is the demand increases from what customers say they may achieve and what markets might do. While we are, as you know, building out a substantial amount of infrastructure to enable us to match the demand as we go into the second half and into 2026.

如您所知，我們也表示，預計下半年商用卡車的銷售量也會有所改善。但同樣，這只是一種期望，而不是知識。所以，我們沒有必要提前考慮，直到我們對今年的所有事情有了更好的了解，也就是客戶所說的他們可能實現的目標和市場可能採取的行動所帶來的需求成長。如您所知，我們正在建造大量基礎設施，以便我們能夠滿足下半年和 2026 年的需求。

Just one follow-up. What is the headcount growth you're thinking about to match that expansion of capacity?

僅一個後續行動。為了配合產能擴張，您考慮增加多少員工人數？

I'm guessing about 1,000 net heads for the year at this point. We'll have a higher gross number than that to net down to 1,000, but a little bit less than in 2024, commensurate with us also improving our productivity. But again, it's something which is yet to be determined. But that's directionally how we're thinking about it.

我估計今年的淨死亡人數約為 1,000 人。我們的總數將高於這個數字，淨增至 1,000 人，但比 2024 年略少，這與我們提高生產力的水平相稱。但同樣，這仍是尚未確定的事情。但這就是我們思考這個問題的方向。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特·斯托拉德（Robert Stallard），垂直研究。

John, I just wanted to follow up on your 737 production forecast. I was wondering what sort of purchase orders your various businesses are seeing at the moment, whether you've got any more clarity on how much inventory is in the system at this point.

約翰，我只是想跟進一下你對 737 產量的預測。我想知道你們各個業務部門目前看到的採購訂單類型，以及你們是否更清楚目前系統中有多少庫存。

Clearly, the fourth quarter wasn't stellar in terms of requirements of Boeing. And we have seen and have fully taken account of the suffocating in a couple of product lines, the cutbacks that have occurred due to inventory. And so that's already baked into our first quarter guide. And so there's nothing for us to be concerned about there.

顯然，波音公司第四季的需求並不出色。我們已經看到並充分考慮到了幾條產品線的停滯以及由於庫存而發生的削減。這已經融入我們的第一季指南中了。因此我們沒有什麼好擔心的。

The thing that I do worry about is if we are unable to, let's say smooth some of those user demands on our scratch heap, accelerate it to an even much higher rate in the balance of the year going into 2026. And so it's that potential for some instability in the demand profile that we've taken account of. And -- but the most important thing is that which we see at the moment is fully baked into our first quarter, which I think is pretty healthy anyway. So nothing to worry about there.

我真正擔心的是，如果我們無法在臨時堆上滿足部分用戶需求，那麼在 2026 年剩餘時間內將其加速到更高的速度。因此，我們已經考慮到了需求狀況中可能出現的一些不穩定因素。而且——但最重要的是，我們目前看到的情況已經完全融入我們的第一季度，無論如何，我認為這是相當健康的。所以沒什麼好擔心的。

Again, as you know, we are -- I'd say just to go a bit further, we're not yet changing over the turbine airfoils for the LEAP-1B.So we expect that to continue with the existing product as we go through 2025 and looking towards a later implementation compared to the LEAP-1A. Just worth mentioning that in the context of the dynamic of the year.

再說一次，如你所知，我們——我想說得更進一步，我們還沒有改變 LEAP-1B 的渦輪翼型。因此，我們預計在 2025 年之前，現有產品將繼續採用這種做法，並期待與 LEAP-1A 相比更晚的實施。值得一提的是，這是在年度動態的背景下。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

John, you referenced Engineered Structures benefiting from product rationalization this quarter. Maybe you can just explain in a bit more detail what that product rationalization point is referring to and if there's opportunity for further benefit from beyond this quarter going forward?

約翰，您提到工程結構本季受益於產品合理化。也許您可以更詳細地解釋產品合理化點指的是什麼，以及是否有機會從本季開始進一步受益？

You may remember, Scott, that we did close down a couple of facilities in Europe earlier in 2024 and also sold one of our, I'll say less profitable Structures businesses. So that's some of the sort of effect on margin, albeit probably even bigger than that has been the step-up in productivity and performance of the business. So when I think about it for 2025, I was really pleased with our exit rate and do not think there's anything to worry about in terms of going backwards in that regard.

史考特，你可能還記得，我們​​確實在 2024 年初關閉了歐洲的幾家工廠，並且還出售了我們的一家利潤較低的結構業務。所以這對利潤率有一定影響，儘管可能比業務生產力和績效的提升更為顯著。因此，當我考慮 2025 年的情況時，我對我們的退出率感到非常滿意，並且認為在這方面沒有什麼可擔心的。

So I think the combination of having thrifted out let’s say, three underperforming operations while still having revenue grow, which is always a great time to do it, improves in productivity, and also, again commercial focus has paid dividends for us, and for us to be able to step up to -- from a 14% level to an 18% EBITDA margin was really good, and that's why I chose to call out in my opening comments and hope to be as good as that or build on it during 2025.

因此，我認為，在削減三個表現不佳的業務的同時，仍然保持收入增長（這始終是一個好時機），可以提高生產力，而且，再次強調，商業焦點也為我們帶來了紅利，我們能夠將 EBITDA 利潤率從 14% 提升到 18%，這真的很好，這就是為什麼我選擇在開場白中提出這一點，並希望在 2025 年達到同樣的水平。

And just to clarify, can you say what the guidance is assuming on the GTF Advantage certification timing?

只是為了澄清一下，您能否說一下指南對 GTF Advantage 認證時間的假設是什麼？

So let me just step through the overall picture on the changeover on both the GTF -- and also, it's worthwhile mentioning the changeover on the LEAP engine. So GTF certification has not occurred. We still await final approvals from our customer, Pratt & Whitney, regarding sign-off for tooling to be able to make at a high rate. We have done some early production. So we're optimistic that changeover occurs during the, say, the 2025 year.

因此，讓我簡單介紹一下 GTF 引擎的整體轉換情況——另外，值得一提的是 LEAP 引擎的轉換情況。因此GTF認證尚未發生。我們仍在等待客戶普惠公司的最終批准，以便能夠以高速率生產工具。我們已經完成了一些早期的生產。因此，我們樂觀地認為轉變將在 2025 年發生。

It's unclear to us yet exactly when the changeover will occur and substantial volumes will do so, but let's assume, at this point, a mid-2025 change, albeit with everybody wanting that change to occur as soon as possible, both for the durability improvements in the engine, and for Howmet, additional, I'll say content and overall mix within the business. So we see that as a good change, but still struggling to put a pin on exactly which month will change-over.

我們目前還不清楚這種轉變何時會發生，以及大量的轉變將會發生，但讓我們假設，在這一點上，轉變將在 2025 年中期發生，儘管每個人都希望這種轉變盡快發生，無論是為了發動機的耐用性改進，還是對於 Howmet 來說，額外的，我會說內容和業務中的整體組合。因此，我們認為這是一個很好的變化，但仍然很難確定具體哪個月份會發生變化。

In the case of GE, the changeover for the LEAP-1A has finally occurred, and so that's good. If you think about Q4, I mean, we were, during that quarter, uncertain about changeover. In fact, we prepared to change, and didn't change, and then changed over again. So there's a little bit of disturbance in our fourth quarter Engine margin performance due to that changeover, which I think everybody can understand. But the most important thing is as of now in, say, January into February, we've changed over to the new improved version. And we believe that will be a net good for both GE and for Howmet.

就通用電氣而言，LEAP-1A 的轉換終於完成了，這是一件好事。如果你考慮一下第四季度，我的意思是，在那個季度，我們對轉換感到不確定。事實上，我們準備改變，但沒有改變，然後又改變了。因此，由於這種轉變，我們第四季的引擎利潤率表現出現了一些波動，我想每個人都可以理解。但最重要的是，從現在開始，比如說，一月到二月，我們已經切換到新的改進版本。我們相信，這對 GE 和 Howmet 來說都是一件好事。

So the LEAP-1B, my expectation is that won't change over at all during 2025, and that will be sometime, more like mid-2026. But again, the timing, to be determined, and the changeovers need to be approved by both GE, Boeing and also the FAA. So that timing is less clear.

因此，我預計 LEAP-1B 在 2025 年期間不會發生任何變化，而這將需要一段時間，例如 2026 年中期。但同樣，具體時間仍有待確定，而且轉換需要得到通用電氣、波音和美國聯邦航空局的批准。因此時間不太明確。

So in summary, GTF by hopefully midyear this year, and we look forward to that change. The LEAP-1A has now changed as of January. That perturbation in our margin is now behind us, with all what's required in a major changeover like that. So all good on that front for increased robustness of those narrow-body engines.

總而言之，希望今年年中能夠實現 GTF，我們期待這項改變。自一月起，LEAP-1A 已經發生了變化。我們的利潤率波動現在已經過去，我們已做好了進行此類重大轉變所需的一切準備。因此，從這方面來看，這些窄體引擎的穩健性都有所提升。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

美國銀行的羅恩愛潑斯坦。

Can you speak a little more to the opportunity in industrial gas turbine? Because it does seem like over the past several quarters, you've gotten, I don't know, how to say more bulled up on it, right? So is there any more color you can give around it? And I mean, ultimately, how big could it be for you guys?

您能否再多談談工業用燃氣渦輪機領域的機會？因為看起來在過去的幾個季度裡，你已經，我不知道，怎麼說呢，對此更加堅定了，對吧？那麼，您能對此提供更多解釋嗎？我的意思是，最終，這對你們來說有多大？

Just -- it is tough to get me bulled up on something. I'd like to believe I'm fairly level-headed, Ron, but I do think that the picture for IGT is exceptional and has got even better since our November earnings call, which as you recall was the day after of the election.

只是──要讓我對某件事產生信心是很困難的。羅恩，我想相信自己是相當冷靜的，但我確實認為 IGT 的前景非常好，而且自從我們 11 月的收益電話會議以來情況變得更好了，你還記得那是在選舉的第二天。

The big picture is data centers are being built out throughout the world, but I'll just stick with the US because it's easy, then you could just extrapolate it, but the data centers require a massive amount of electricity, both for both the build-out of the functioning of these new chips in the server, and also electricity for cooling them down as well. So the demands are extraordinary. And it will be interesting to see how both the electricity is provided, and also what the grid is able to cope with.

總體來看，資料中心正在世界各地建設，但我只關注美國，因為這很容易，然後你可以推斷，但資料中心需要大量的電力，既用於伺服器中這些新晶片的運行，也用於冷卻它們。因此，要求非常高。看看電力是如何供應的以及電網能夠應對什麼，將會很有趣。

And also, I think that certain data center clusters are going to have their own source of electricity because of the security they need for it, which will require gas turbines to be on-site. So the overall blend of electricity provision between that, which will come from wind and solar and from natural gas, I think has changed with the new administration.

而且，我認為某些資料中心叢集將擁有自己的電力來源，因為它們需要安全保障，這就需要燃氣渦輪機在現場。因此，我認為，隨著新政府的上台，風能、太陽能和天然氣的電力供應整體組合已經改變了。

I think that everybody is seeing an even brighter prospect for natural gas and industrial gas turbines going forward. And we have been in deep discussions with some of our customers to create the capacity. I In fact, we're actually in that Capex guide I gave we’re actually going to build out additions to two of our sites to enable additional plant and equipment to be installed over the back end of '25 into '26 and also into '27. So we're pretty optimistic about it.

我認為每個人都看到了天然氣和工業燃氣渦輪機未來更光明的前景。我們已經與一些客戶進行了深入討論，以創造產能。事實上，正如我給出的資本支出指南中所述，我們將在 2025 年末、2026 年以及 2027 年期間在我們的兩個站點上進行擴建，以便安裝額外的工廠和設備。所以我們對此非常樂觀。

Of course, it doesn't -- none of these things happen without some disturbance. We all are especially familiar with DeepSeek, and was that a revolution? And the best that I can explain it is that it was using the benefits of the open language models developed by other hyperscalers. But fundamentally, in terms of the hyperscalers that we think about, which is Microsoft and Meta and Google and Oracle, then I think the requirements for building out these servers and data centers, it's all intact. I expect it to be really good for that segment going forward.

當然不是──這些事情的發生都離不開一些幹擾。我們都特別熟悉 DeepSeek，它是一場革命嗎？我能解釋的最好的是，它利用了其他超大規模計算系統開發的開放語言模型的優勢。但從根本上來說，就我們所考慮的超大規模企業而言，即微軟、Meta、谷歌和甲骨文，我認為建立這些伺服器和資料中心的要求都是完整的。我希望它能對該領域的未來發展有非常好的作用。

In the short term, it's going to have to be provided by running the existing turbines harder, which means spares demand. And at the same time, everybody of all of the major gas turbine providers in the world are gearing up to add capacity. And for them to do that, they need the most critical component, which is the turbine blades, which leads back to Howmet. And we do have the leading market share of above 50% of that global market. So we're pretty optimistic about it.

短期內，必須透過增加現有渦輪機的運作來滿足電力需求，這意味著備件需求。同時，全球所有主要燃氣渦輪機供應商都在加緊增加產能。為了實現這一目標，他們需要最關鍵的零件，即渦輪葉片，這可以追溯到 Howmet。我們確實佔據了全球 50% 以上的市場份額。所以我們對此非常樂觀。

I’m conscious we don't want to get ahead of ourselves. So I expect that we're going to be constrained in our ability to supply over the next couple of years as we build out this compared to what's there, but are very pleased to be investing in it and what we think is going to be a bright future both for sales revenue and for margin going forward. And I think on the last call, I did state clearly that our margins in IGT are similar to our aerospace turbines.

我意識到我們不想超越自己。因此，我預計，在未來幾年內，隨著我們不斷擴大產能，與現有產能相比，我們的供應能力將受到限制，但我們非常高興能夠對其進行投資，我們認為，無論是對於未來的銷售收入還是利潤率而言，這都將是一個光明的未來。我認為在上次通話中我確實明確表示過，IGT 的利潤率與我們的航空渦輪機相似。

David Strauss, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的大衛‧施特勞斯。

Maybe a question for Ken. Ken, what is assumed in the cash guide for working capital? It looks like maybe somewhere between $100 million and $200 million usage, similar to 2024.

這可能是對肯的一個問題。肯，現金指南中對營運資本的假設是什麼？看起來使用金額可能在 1 億美元到 2 億美元之間，與 2024 年類似。

And then John, in terms of -- it sounds like we should expect less in the way of kind of gross debt reduction this year, and you talked about a higher buyback. Is it fair to think about that you could look to return pretty close to 100% of free cash flow in terms of buyback and dividend?

然後約翰，就這一點而言——聽起來我們應該對今年的總債務削減預期較低，而你談到了更高的回購。您是否可以考慮透過回購和股息的方式獲得接近 100% 的自由現金流回報？

Maybe I'll go first, Ken, and then you clear out the working capital assumption. So what we're very clear on, David, is that if you look at '22, '23, '24, is that our cash flow has essentially been, I'll say repatriated to shareholders, either by share buyback dividend or I also think of debt reduction, and it’s improvement in future free cash flow is also as part of that.

也許我會先走，肯，然後你清除營運資金假設。因此，大衛，我們非常清楚的是，如果你看一下 2022、2023、2024 年，我們的現金流基本上已經匯回給股東，無論是透過股票回購股息，還是我也想到債務減少，未來自由現金流的改善也是其中的一部分。

Given our net leverage is that, when I look at it, is that we've increased the dividend, but that's not going to fundamentally change the contours of our cash flow and it’s usage. But this year, in 2025, I just don't see us doing anything like what we've done in the last couple of years in terms of putting our debt stacks into a really great order and also putting out an average interest cost of our long-term debt in a really good condition below the average of the 10-year treasury, so again, good work there.

鑑於我們的淨槓桿率，我認為我們增加了股息，但這不會從根本上改變我們的現金流輪廓及其使用情況。但今年，也就是 2025 年，我認為我們不會像過去幾年那樣，將我們的債務整理得井井有條，也不會將我們的長期債務平均利息成本保持在低於 10 年期國債平均水平的良好狀態，所以，我們在這方面做得很好。

So that leaves us with share buyback. And the commentary I've given so far is that it will be above [2024] (corrected by company after the call). I've not put a pin in the exact number. But you can assume that if you look at the combination of all of that, is that the benefits of our cash flow will be largely, if not wholly, repatriated to shareholders because everything else is in such great shape.

因此，我們只能進行股票回購。到目前為止，我給出的評論是，它將高於[2024]（本公司於通話後更正）。我沒有確定確切的數字。但你可以假設，如果將所有這些結合起來看，我們的現金流收益將大部分（如果不是全部）返還給股東，因為其他一切都處於良好的狀態。

Ken, over to you on the working capital?

肯，您談談營運資金的問題嗎？

Yes. So David, so in terms of free cash flow, working capital. So again, starting with '24, that $977 million of free cash flow was a record, as we talked about it, 88% conversion. Very pleased with the performance of the team on that, especially considering, embedded in that was record Capex investment, right, around $321 million. And as you can see in the reports that we have here, that $100 million increase in Capex, you can see the year-over-year primarily in the engines business, which has tremendous return on net assets in the business.

是的。大衛，就自由現金流和營運資本而言。因此，從 24 年開始，9.77 億美元的自由現金流創下了歷史新高，正如我們所討論的，轉換率為 88%。我對團隊的表現非常滿意，特別是考慮到其中蘊含著創紀錄的資本支出投資，約 3.21 億美元。正如您在我們這裡的報告中看到的，資本支出增加了 1 億美元，您可以看到，這主要發生在引擎業務上，該業務的淨資產回報率非常高。

So as we move forward into 2025, we tried to give you the assumptions on slide 15 in the deck in terms of some of the building blocks of free cash flow, but north of $1 billion of free cash flow in 2025.

因此，當我們邁入 2025 年時，我們嘗試在投影片第 15 頁中給出有關自由現金流的一些基本要素的假設，但 2025 年的自由現金流將超過 10 億美元。

If you look at the working capital, specifically to your question, embedded in there is a burn of around $180 million of working capital burn. And the way I would look at it is revenue year-over-year is up $600 million-ish on the guide. Usually, you have about a 20% working capital burn associated with that revenue increase. So you're looking at it -- normally, you would expect $120 million of working capital burn, but we're going to build more inventory, right, as we look at commercial aerospace, specifically in narrow-body, if our assumption is maybe conservative on narrow-body, if that's higher and say, Boeing can go to 38, 42, we will be ready for that. And that's why we're going to put some incremental inventories in the capital number.

如果您看一下營運資本，特別是針對您的問題，其中隱含著約 1.8 億美元的營運資本消耗。我認為，營收年減了 6 億美元左右。通常，收入增加會導致約 20% 的營運資金消耗。所以你看看這個——通常情況下，你會預計營運資金消耗為 1.2 億美元，但我們將建立更多的庫存，對吧，當我們看商用航空航天時，特別是在窄體飛機方面，如果我們對窄體飛機的假設可能是保守的，如果這個數字更高，比如說波音可以達到 38、42，我們將為此做好準備。這就是為什麼我們要在資本數字中加入一些增量庫存。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe can you talk about the step down in engines margins in Q4? They were down about 150 bps Q-over-Q, a surprised, given the continued volume growth there? And how do we think about margin levels in '25 and '26 for Engines, given new capacity coming online and the narrow-body engine kits you talked about?

您能否談談第四季引擎利潤率的下降？環比下降了約 150 個基點，考慮到交易量持續增長，這是否令人驚訝？考慮到新產能上線以及您提到的窄體引擎套件，我們如何看待 25 年和 26 年引擎的利潤水平？

And maybe a follow-up to Myles' question. What segment decelerates the most from Q1 levels?

或許這是對 Myles 問題的後續回答。與第一季相比，哪個部分的成長放緩最快？

Okay. So first of all, in my view, Sheila, the small margin change in Engines in the fourth quarter is what I call noise, and I wouldn't read too much into that at all. It doesn't bother me. Of course, I would not have liked it to occur, but at the same time, in terms of the long-term thematic of that business, it really, I think, is fairly inconsequential.

好的。所以首先，希拉，在我看來，第四季引擎的小幅利潤變化就是我所說的噪音，我不會對此進行過多的解讀。這並不困擾我。當然，我不希望發生這種情況，但同時，就該業務的長期主題而言，我認為，這確實是無關緊要的。

The thing I said earlier in the call, which maybe I should amplify a little bit about, as you know, we went through the changeover in terms of preparing for the new LEAP-1A Stage 1 turbine blade, which has been noted. Probably what's not been noted is the change of dates in terms of the implementation and the final FAA certification and then the readiness. So we incurred some costs during the fourth quarter in that whole changeover.

我之前在電話中說過，也許我應該稍微詳細說明一下，正如你所知，我們在準備新的 LEAP-1A 第一階段渦輪葉片方面經歷了轉變，這一點已經得到注意。可能尚未註意到的是實施日期、最終 FAA 認證以及準備情況的變更。因此，在整個轉換過程中，我們在第四季度產生了一些成本。

And the most important thing is that changeover is behind us and the new blade is, as far as we can see, is performing well. So we don't see any of those changeover costs reoccurring in 2025 for the LEAP range of engines, because I already said, LEAP-1B will be a '26 item and certainly not in my view the first half of '26. That's a TBD.

最重要的是，轉換已經結束，據我們所知，新刀片性能良好。因此，我們認為 2025 年 LEAP 系列引擎不會再出現任何轉換成本，因為我已經說過，LEAP-1B 將是 26 年的產品，而且在我看來肯定不會是 26 年上半年的產品。這還有待確定。

Then, of course, there will be the changeover coming for the GTF, which we see as positive, and possibly even more positive than the LEAP engines, just because it's needed so much and the technology change is considerable. So we look forward to that, and again, it being date uncertain.

當然，GTF 將會迎來轉變，我們認為這是積極的，甚至可能比 LEAP 引擎更為積極，因為它的需求量很大，而且技術變化也很大。所以我們期待這一點，但具體日期還不確定。

So I think the most important thing is, Q4 was -- I mean, is the normal -- what I’ll call quarterly noise. I don't think anybody can be that good in terms of what's a fractional change for a percentage point while undergoing such significant change. So that's how I'd categorize it.

所以我認為最重要的是，第四季——我的意思是，是正常的——我稱之為季度噪音。我認為，在經歷如此重大的變化時，沒有人能夠如此出色地判斷一個百分點的微小變化意味著什麼。這就是我對其的分類。

I think the second part of your question was about margin. If I could guess at it in terms of total change year-on-year from an average of 24% to an average of 25%, I'm pretty positive about our Structures business and the changes we've been making to that business during 2024. I see that a lot of those things came right in the fourth quarter. And we hope that there's nothing that's going to occur that will put us into reverse at all. Again, it's always a view and a forecast. But year-on-year, is that I think Structures will probably be the biggest percent of improvement for the year. But heck, I'd like all of them to be -- continue to move forward. We’ll see how it goes.

我認為你問題的第二部分是關於保證金的。如果我能猜測出同比整體變化從平均 24% 到平均 25%，那麼我對我們的結構業務以及我們在 2024 年對該業務所做的改變非常樂觀。我發現很多事情在第四季都順利完成了。我們希望不會發生任何讓我們陷入倒退的事情。再說一遍，這始終是一種觀點和預測。但與去年同期相比，我認為結構可能是今年改進幅度最大的。但哎呀，我希望他們都能繼續前進。我們將拭目以待。

Seth Seifman, J.P. Morgan.

塞思‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

I guess maybe following up on that last question with Structures, impressive margin performance, you've kind of exited some areas, so not a place where you've been looking to add incremental capital. Once you've kind of got it performing the way you want it to perform, how do you think about its place in the portfolio?

我想也許可以繼續回答關於結構的最後一個問題，令人印象深刻的利潤率表現，你已經退出了一些領域，所以這不是你一直尋求增加增量資本的地方。一旦它按照你想要的方式運行，你會如何考慮它在投資組合中的位置？

I had said and had been willing to go on record that I did see the Structures business moving to the high teens in terms of the margin performance. And one quarter doesn't make a year, but if you say what would I guess at, I'd say that we will probably be able to repeat that in 2025. So inevitably, when you begin to do many of the right things in the business, it does earn its way to have some additional capital deployed towards it, whereas we've been really, I'll say starving that business or certainly not reinvesting at its depreciation rate because of its overall, I'd say place in the portfolio in terms of margin performance, et cetera. So I think you earn your right to grow, even though that business, as you've seen, is growing.

我曾經說過並且願意公開表示，我確實看到結構業務的利潤率表現上升到了十幾個百分點。一個季度不能代表一年，但如果讓我猜測的話，我會說我們可能能夠在 2025 年重複這一目標。因此，不可避免的是，當你開始在業務中做許多正確的事情時，它確實會通過自己的方式獲得一些額外的資本部署，而我們實際上一直在讓該業務挨餓，或者肯定不會以其折舊率進行再投資，因為它的整體，我想說它在投資組合中的利潤表現等。因此我認為，您贏得了發展的權利，儘管正如您所見，該業務正在成長。

I think the good news is that the inventory overhang that was at Lockheed in terms of bulk heads is, I think behind us, and you can see some of the effect of that. I also see that titanium demand continues to be healthy in 2025 and 2026. It's always unknown because we are the beneficiaries of some geopolitical tensions there versus Russia, and who knows where all of that goes. But at the moment, I think it's certainly a higher teens margin business.

我認為好消息是洛克希德公司的艙壁庫存過剩問題已經過去了，您可以看到它帶來的一些影響。我還認為 2025 年和 2026 年鈦需求將持續保持健康。這始終是未知的，因為我們是與俄羅斯發生地緣政治緊張局勢的受益者，而且誰也不知道這一切將走向何方。但目前，我認為這肯定是一個利潤率較高的業務。

There's no reason why we need to stop there. So whether we can move it into the 20s, that remains to be seen. But ultimately, I still stand behind the statement. I don't see that as a business which can intrinsically have the rate of margins that we have in our Engine business. And that's why we've been really pleased to really capacitize there just because of the growth, the defensive moat around the business, and the technology, and the technologies which are yet to come. So I'm very positive about all of that. But Structures, so far, so good, and I'm pleased with its performance. But nothing – in terms of place in the portfolio. It's a good contributor. It's creating value. So all good, as far as I'm concerned.

我們沒有理由就此止步。因此，我們是否可以將其提升至 20 多歲，還有待觀察。但最終，我仍然堅持這個說法。我不認為這項業務本質上能夠擁有我們引擎業務那樣的利潤率。這就是為什麼我們很高興能夠在那裡真正發揮能力，因為業務的成長、防禦性護城河、技術以及尚未出現的技術。所以我對這一切非常樂觀。但到目前為止，結構都很好，我對它的表現很滿意。但就投資組合而言，什麼都沒有。這是一個很好的貢獻者。它正在創造價值。就我而言，一切都很好。

Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Ken Herbert。

You had really strong spares growth in '25, or in '24, what's the underlying assumption for spares growth in '25, if you can provide that? And I guess, specifically, in the last few calls, you've talked up in particular demand around the CFM56 and spares activity there. Can you comment within spares on the aerospace outlook in particular, and what you're seeing?

您在 25 年或 24 年的備件成長確實非常強勁，如果您可以提供的話，25 年備件成長的基本假設是什麼？我想，具體來說，在最近的幾次通話中，您談到了對 CFM56 和備件活動的特殊需求。您能否特別評論一下航空航太業的前景以及您所看到的情況？

Okay. So let me deal with the CFM56 comment first. It's that my view has been is that the statements, which was probably viewed about three or four years ago, that 2025 would be the year of peak demand for CFM56. I said that in my view that's been pushed out to more like 2027. And I think it all comes back to the existing fleet is being worked harder. You can see that the demand into the MRO shops, or say those legacy engines, is still increasing, and the facilities are being created, and more deeper overhauls are being performed. And so I really do think that my statement holds.

好的。因此，讓我先處理一下 CFM56 的評論。我的觀點是，大概三、四年前就有觀點認為，2025 年將是 CFM56 需求高峰。我說過，在我看來，這個時間已經延後到 2027 年了。我認為這一切都歸因於現有艦隊正在更加努力地工作。您可以看到，對 MRO 車間（或那些傳統引擎）的需求仍在增加，並且正在創建設施，並且正在進行更深層次的大修。所以我確實認為我的說法是正確的。

And then if '27 is the peak, and it might be later than that, that's where I stand at the moment, is that any degradation from that would be very marginal and it will take either many years into the next decade. So I don't see a massive change there.

如果 27 年是峰值，而且可能更晚，那麼我目前的立場是，任何由此產生的下降都將是非常微小的，並且需要很多年甚至下一個十年的時間。所以我沒看到那裡有巨大的改變。

I If you think about it, when we started out 2024, the assumption around LEAP production was much higher than it turned out. Those new engines are not in the market, and therefore, that in itself creates more demand for CFM56s because airlines are still using those planes as much as they possibly can and trying to accelerate, I'll say, their transition through any MRO repairs. So that deals with CFM56.

如果你仔細想想，當我們開始 2024 年時，對 LEAP 產量的假設比實際結果要高得多。這些新引擎尚未上市，因此，這本身就為 CFM56 創造了更多需求，因為航空公司仍在盡可能多地使用這些飛機，並試圖加速透過任何 MRO 維修過渡。這與 CFM56 有關。

In terms of demand for the LEAP range of engines, I think the spares demand continues to grow. And if anything, the demand for LEAP-1B is -- I think we're going to see that accelerate in 2025 and building on a very strong demand for LEAP-1A blades.

就 LEAP 系列引擎的需求而言，我認為備件需求持續成長。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是對 LEAP-1B 的需求——我認為我們將在 2025 年看到這種需求加速增長，並且建立在對 LEAP-1A 葉片的強勁需求之上。

So I think the important thing to remember is we don't control when our blades leave us and are passed to CFM, let's call it. We don't control how many of those are built into new engines and how many goes to spares. And so that will be an interesting dynamic as we go through 2025. But my expectation is that the needs for Boeing will be fulfilled and those LEAP-1B engines will be produced for them. And all of the balance goes to spares.

因此，我認為要記住的重要一點是，我們無法控制葉片何時離開我們並傳遞給 CFM，我們姑且這麼稱呼它。我們無法控制有多少零件被裝入新發動機，又有多少零件被用作備件。當我們進入 2025 年時，這將是一個有趣的動態。但我的期望是波音的需求能夠得到滿足，而那些 LEAP-1B 引擎將為他們生產。所有餘額均為備品所有。

On the other hand, if spares are prioritized first and OE engines less, then that does have an impact. So we've provided some caution around that fact. And so that if spares are to be prioritized at the expense of a OE build, then we would not be selling our structural castings and also all of the other parts in the low-pressure turbine that's built out by Safran.

另一方面，如果優先考慮備件，而優先考慮原廠發動機，那麼確實會產生影響。因此，我們對這一事實提出了一些警告。因此，如果要優先考慮備件而犧牲原始設備製造，那麼我們就不會出售我們的結構鑄件以及賽峰集團製造的低壓渦輪機中的所有其他部件。

So when you think about it, overall, what does that say? Spares are going to increase again in 2025. So I think we're going to see a very healthy increase in spares. And I'm hoping that we're going to see both a healthy increase in spares and a healthy increase in OE engine build, and that the numbers for LEAP production will actually be higher than is currently being called out. But that, again, is to be determined.

那麼，當您思考這個問題時，總體來說，這說明了什麼？2025年備件數量將再次增加。因此我認為我們將會看到備件數量出現非常健康的成長。我希望我們能看到備件數量和 OE 引擎製造數量健康成長，而 LEAP 產量實際上會高於目前的數量。但這還有待確定。

But I think every one of those engines is going to be necessary to allow Airbus and Boeing to enable them to achieve the builds that they want to achieve, with Airbus rising above the mid-50s, and also Boeing reaching their stated exit rate of, is it 38 or is it 42, that's, again, to be determined. But it's very clear to me that every part of what we produce is going to be necessary to build out those engines to enable the aircraft to be built, and whilst obviously maintaining and refilling the spares demand, which is going to be very healthy going into '25.

但我認為，每台引擎對於空中巴士和波音來說都是必要的，這樣他們才能實現他們想要實現的目標，空中巴士的產量將超過 50 架左右，而波音也達到了他們宣稱的出口率，是 38 架還是 42 架，這還有待確定。但我很清楚，我們生產的每一個零件對於製造這些發動機都是必要的，以使飛機能夠製造出來，同時顯然還能維持和補充備件需求，這對於 25 年來說將是非常健康的。

This concludes our question-and-answer session, as well as the conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

我們的問答環節和會議到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。