Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace third quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Also, please be aware that today's call is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）另外，請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係和 FP&A 副總裁 Paul Luther。請繼續。

Thank you, Joe. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace third quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Giacobbe, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，喬。早安，歡迎參加 Howmet Aerospace 2024 年第三季業績電話會議。執行主席兼執行長約翰普蘭特 (John Plant) 也出席了會議；執行副總裁兼財務長 Ken Giacobbe。

After comments by John and Ken, we will have a question-and-answer session. I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings.

在約翰和肯發表評論後，我們將進行問答環節。我想提醒您，今天的討論將包含有關未來事件和期望的前瞻性陳述。您可以找到可能導致公司實際業績與今天的演示和收益新聞稿以及我們最新的 SEC 文件中列出的預測存在重大差異的因素。

In today's presentation, references to EBITDA, operating income and EPS mean adjusted EBITDA excluding special items, adjusted operating income excluding special items and adjusted EPS excluding special items. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation.

在今天的演示中，提及 EBITDA、營業收入和每股收益是指不包括特殊項目的調整後 EBITDA、不包括特殊項目的調整後營業收入和不包括特殊項目的調整後每股收益。這些措施屬於我們討論中的非公認會計原則財務措施。與最直接可比較的公認會計準則財務指標的調節可以在今天的新聞稿和今天演示的附錄中找到。

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, PT, and welcome, everyone, to the Howmet third quarter earnings call. Q3 was another strong quarter for the company. Year-over-year revenue growth was 11%, building on the 14% growth in the first half. Within this number, commercial aerospace growth was 17% continuing a strong trend, including engine spares growth. Other markets will be covered later in the call.

謝謝 PT，歡迎大家參加 Howmet 第三季財報電話會議。第三季是該公司另一個強勁的季度。繼上半年 14% 的成長基礎上，營收年增 11%。其中，商業航空航太成長了 17%，繼續保持強勁趨勢，其中包括引擎備件的成長。其他市場將在稍後的電話會議中討論。

EBITDA was a record $487 million, along with a margin of 26.5%, while operating income was $419 million with a margin of 22.8%. Operating income was up 33% year-over-year and increased 390 basis points, with Engines and Fasteners performing at high levels, supported by an increasingly strong results in Structures. Wheels revenue was down, driven by market declines, especially in Europe, which reduced double digits with extended summer vacations.

EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 4.87 億美元，利潤率為 26.5%，營業收入為 4.19 億美元，利潤率為 22.8%。營業收入年增 33%，增加 390 個基點，引擎和緊固件業務表現高水平，結構業務的業績日益強勁。受市場下滑的影響，車輪收入下降，尤其是在歐洲，隨著暑假的延長，收入減少了兩位數。

However, Wheels continued to deliver a healthy EBITDA margin of 26%. Earnings per share was $0.71, an increase of 54% year-over-year. Free cash flow was also strong at $162 million, improving year-to-date free cash flow to approximately $600 million. The quarter end cash balance of $475 million is after deploying $282 million to debt pay down, $100 million to share buybacks, and $34 million to dividends.

然而，Wheels 繼續實現 26% 的健康 EBITDA 利潤率。每股收益為0.71美元，年增54%。自由現金流也很強勁，達到 1.62 億美元，將年初至今的自由現金流提高至約 6 億美元。季末現金餘額為 4.75 億美元，其中 2.82 億美元用於償還債務，1 億美元用於股票回購，3,400 萬美元用於股利。

Overall, Howmet had a healthy set of results with EBITDA, EBITDA margin, earnings per share and free cash flow above expectations.

總體而言，Howmet 取得了一系列健康的業績，EBITDA、EBITDA 利潤率、每股盈餘和自由現金流均高於預期。

Let me comment on revenue, which is fractionally light of our guide. In September, we restricted our aerospace parts supplied to Boeing, pending further understanding about the duration of the strike. Naturally, we are pleased that the Boeing strike is now over, and the business can gradually return to normal. The other notable shortfall was in our Wheels business. Wheels revenue was approximately $30 million below Q2, principally due to notably weaker European market conditions resulting in an 18% decrease in revenue. North America revenues were down by 10%.

讓我評論一下收入，這與我們的指南無關。9月份，我們限制了向波音公司供應航空零件，等待進一步了解罷工持續時間。當然，我們很高興波音罷工現在已經結束，業務可以逐漸恢復正常。另一個顯著的缺點是我們的車輪業務。車輪收入比第二季低約 3,000 萬美元，主要是由於歐洲市場狀況明顯疲軟導致收入下降 18%。北美收入下降了 10%。

I'll now pass the call to Ken to provide additional details by end market and business segments before I return to cover the outlook for the company.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Ken，以提供有關終端市場和業務部門的更多詳細信息，然後再回來介紹公司的前景。

Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. Let's move to slide 5.

謝謝你，約翰。大家早安。讓我們轉到投影片 5。

So market growth continued to be healthy in the third quarter with total revenue up 11% year-over-year, building on the first half revenue growth of 14%. Commercial aerospace growth remained strong despite our decision to restrict supply to Boeing due to the strike. Commercial aerospace revenue was up 17%, which built on the 25% commercial aerospace growth in the first half. Defense aerospace was also strong, up 15% driven by fighter programs and fighter engine spares demand.

因此，第三季市場成長持續健康，總收入在上半年營收成長 14% 的基礎上年增 11%。儘管我們因罷工而決定限制對波音的供應，但商業航空航太成長仍然強勁。商業航空航太收入成長 17%，這是在上半年商業航空航太成長 25% 的基礎上實現的。國防航空航太也表現強勁，在戰鬥機計畫和戰鬥機發動機備件需求的推動下成長了 15%。

As expected, the commercial transportation market weakened with revenue down 12% led by the slowdown in Europe and to a lesser extent, North America. Finally, the industrial and other markets were up a healthy 17%, driven by oil and gas, up 26%, IGT up 20% and general industrial up 5%.

正如預期的那樣，商業運輸市場疲軟，收入下降 12%，主要是由於歐洲和北美經濟放緩所致。最後，在石油和天然氣成長 26%、IGT 成長 20% 和一般工業成長 5% 的推動下，工業和其他市場健康成長了 17%。

In summary, continued strong performance in commercial aerospace, defense aerospace and industrial, partially offset by commercial transportation.

總之，商業航空航太、國防航空航太和工業領域的持續強勁表現，部分被商業運輸所抵消。

Now let's move to slide 6, starting with the P&L. For the third consecutive quarter, EBITDA, EBITDA margin and earnings per share were all records and exceeded the high end of guidance. On a year-over-year basis, revenue was up 11% and EBITDA outpaced revenue growth by being up 27% as total headcount remained flat in the quarter despite adding approximately 235 headcount in the Engines segment.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 6，從損益表開始。EBITDA、EBITDA利潤率和每股盈餘連續第三個季度創歷史新高，並超過指導上限。與去年同期相比，收入增長了 11%，EBITDA 增長了 27%，超過了收入增長，儘管發動機部門增加了約 235 名員工，但本季度總人數保持不變。

Incremental flow-through of revenue to EBITDA was a healthy 59%. Moreover, the team delivered records for both EBITDA margin at 26.5% and earnings per share of $0.71, which was up a healthy 54% year-over-year.

EBITDA 營收增量為 59%。此外，該團隊的 EBITDA 利潤率達到 26.5%，每股收益達到 0.71 美元，較去年同期健康成長 54%。

Now let's cover the balance sheet and cash flow. The balance sheet continues to strengthen. Cash at the end of the quarter was $475 million, and free cash flow was a record for Q3 at $162 million. Year-to-date free cash flow was approximately $600 million. Net debt-to-EBITDA continues to improve and was at a record low of 1.6 times. All long-term debt is unsecured and at fixed rates. Howmet’s improved financial leverage and strong cash generation were reflected in Moody's two-notch rating upgrade to Baa1. Additionally, Fitch upgraded Howmet's outlook to positive.

現在我們來看看資產負債表和現金流量。資產負債表繼續走強。本季末現金為 4.75 億美元，第三季自由現金流創歷史新高，達 1.62 億美元。今年迄今自由現金流約6億美元。淨債務與 EBITDA 比率持續改善，創歷史新低 1.6 倍。所有長期債務均無擔保且利率固定。Howmet 改善的財務槓桿和強勁的現金產生能力反映在穆迪將評級上調兩級至 Baa1 上。此外，惠譽將 Howmet 的前景升級為正面。

Liquidity remains strong with a healthy cash balance and a $1 billion undrawn revolver complemented by the flexibility of a $1 billion Commercial Paper Program. Regarding capital deployment, we deployed approximately $416 million of cash in the quarter to debt paydown, common stock repurchases and quarterly dividends. For the quarter, we reduced debt by approximately $282 million through the following three actions.

流動性仍然強勁，擁有健康的現金餘額和 10 億美元的未提取左輪手槍，並輔以 10 億美元商業票據計劃的靈活性。關於資本部署，我們在本季部署了約 4.16 億美元現金用於償還債務、普通股回購和季度股利。本季度，我們透過以下三項行動減少了約 2.82 億美元的債務。

First, we redeemed the remaining $205 million balance of the 2024 bonds with cash on hand. Payment was at par.

首先，我們用手頭現金贖回了2024年債券剩餘的2.05億美元餘額。付款是平價的。

Second, we issued $500 million of new bonds due in October 2031, the fixed interest rate is 3.72%.

其次，我們發行了2031年10月到期的5億美元新債券，固定利率為3.72%。

Third, we redeemed the remaining $577 million balance on the May 2025 bonds. We used $77 million of cash on hand plus the proceeds from the October 2031 bond issuance, which has a substantially lower fixed interest rate.

第三，我們贖回了 2025 年 5 月債券的剩餘 5.77 億美元餘額。我們使用了 7,700 萬美元的手頭現金，加上 2031 年 10 月發行債券的收益，該債券的固定利率要低得多。

All combined debt actions year-to-date through the third quarter 2024 will reduce annualized interest expense by approximately $33 million. The company's next debt maturity is in November of 2026.

年初至今至 2024 年第三季的所有合併債務行動將使年化利息支出減少約 3,300 萬美元。該公司的下一次債務到期日為 2026 年 11 月。

Moving to share repurchases. In the third quarter, we repurchased $100 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $94 per share. Year-to-date through September, we repurchased $310 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $77 per share. Q3 was the 14th consecutive quarter of common stock repurchases. The average diluted share count improved to a record low Q3 exit rate of 409 million shares.

轉向股票回購。第三季度，我們以每股約 94 美元的平均價格回購了 1 億美元的普通股。今年迄今截至 9 月份，我們以每股約 77 美元的平均價格回購了價值 3.1 億美元的普通股。第三季是連續第 14 季進行普通股回購。第三季平均稀釋股份數改善至 4.09 億股，創歷史新低。

Moreover, in October of 2024, the company repurchased an additional $90 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $103 per share. Year-to-date through October 31, the company has repurchased $400 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $81 per share, retiring approximately 4.9 million shares. Remaining authorization from the Board of Directors for share repurchases is approximately $2.3 billion as of the end of October.

此外，2024年10月，該公司以每股約103美元的平均價格額外回購了9,000萬美元的普通股。年初至今，截至 10 月 31 日，該公司已以每股約 81 美元的平均價格回購了價值 4 億美元的普通股，退役了約 490 萬股。截至 10 月底，董事會剩餘的股票回購授權約為 23 億美元。

Finally, we continue to be confident in free cash flow. In the third quarter, we paid $34 million in dividends as we increased the common stock dividend 60% from $0.05 per share to $0.08 per share.

最後，我們對自由現金流繼續充滿信心。第三季度，我們支付了 3,400 萬美元的股息，普通股股息從每股 0.05 美元增加到每股 0.08 美元，增加了 60%。

Now let's move to slide 7 to cover the segment results for the third quarter. Engine Products delivered another record performance. Revenue increased 18% year-over-year to $945 million. Commercial aerospace was up 20%, and defense aerospace was up 15% driven by engine spares growth. Oil and gas was up 26%, and IGT was up 20%. Demand continues to be strong across all of our engines markets with strong engine spares volumes, which are expected to reach a record with $1.25 billion of revenue in 2024.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 7，介紹第三季的部門業績。引擎產品再創紀錄的業績。營收年增 18% 至 9.45 億美元。在引擎備件成長的推動下，商用航空航太成長了 20%，國防航空航太成長了 15%。石油和天然氣上漲 26%，IGT 上漲 20%。我們所有引擎市場的需求持續強勁，引擎備件數量強勁，預計 2024 年營收將達到創紀錄的 12.5 億美元。

EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 40% year-over-year to a record $307 million. EBITDA margin increased 510 basis points year-over-year to a record 32.5%, while absorbing approximately 235 net new employees in the quarter to support growth. The Engines team once again delivered a record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin.

EBITDA 超過營收成長，年增 40%，達到創紀錄的 3.07 億美元。EBITDA 利潤率年增 510 個基點，達到創紀錄的 32.5%，同時本季吸收了約 235 名淨新員工以支持成長。引擎團隊再次創造了創紀錄的季度收入、EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率。

Now let's move to slide 8. Fastening Systems also had another strong quarter. Revenue increased 13% year-over-year to $392 million. Commercial aerospace was 17% higher, including the impact of the wide-body recovery and the Boeing strike. General industrial was up 26%, defense aerospace was up 5% and commercial transportation, which represents 16% of Fasteners revenue, was down 3%.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 8。緊固系統公司也迎來了另一個強勁的季度。營收年增 13% 至 3.92 億美元。商業航空航太成長了 17%，其中包括寬體客機恢復和波音罷工的影響。一般工業成長 26%，國防航空航太成長 5%，佔緊固件收入 16% 的商業運輸下降 3%。

Year-over-year EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 34% to $102 million. EBITDA margin increased 420 basis points year-over-year to a healthy 26%. The team continues to expand margins through commercial and operational performance.

EBITDA 年成長 34%，達到 1.02 億美元，超過了收入成長。EBITDA 利潤率年增 420 個基點，達到健康的 26%。該團隊繼續透過商業和營運績效擴大利潤。

Now let's move to slide 9. Engineered Structures performance continues to improve. Revenue increased 11% year-over-year to $253 million. Commercial aerospace was up 11%, and defense aerospace was up 27% year-over-year, driven primarily by the F-35 program.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 9。工程結構性能不斷提高。營收年增 11% 至 2.53 億美元。商業航空航太年增 11%，國防航空航太年成長 27%，主要由 F-35 計畫推動。

Year-over-year segment EBITDA outpaced revenue growth, and was up 27% to $38 million. EBITDA margin increased 180 basis points to 15%. Sequentially, revenue decreased 8% as we continue to optimize the Structures manufacturing footprint and rationalize the product mix to maximize profitability. The team continues to make progress and we expect continued improvements heading into 2025.

EBITDA 年成長 27%，達到 3800 萬美元，超過了收入成長。EBITDA 利潤率成長 180 個基點，達到 15%。隨後，隨著我們繼續優化結構製造足跡並合理化產品組合以最大限度地提高盈利能力，收入下降了 8%。該團隊不斷取得進展，我們預計到 2025 年將繼續取得進步。

Finally, let's move to slide 10. Forged Wheels revenue was down 14% year-over-year as the long expected slowdown takes hold of the commercial transportation market. EBITDA decreased 17% as the team flexed costs to minimize the margin decline. EBITDA margin continues to be healthy at 26.1%.

最後，讓我們轉到投影片 10。由於商業運輸市場長期預期放緩，鍛造車輪收入年減 14%。由於團隊調整成本以盡量減少利潤率下降，因此 EBITDA 下降了 17%。EBITDA 利潤率持續維持在 26.1% 的健康水準。

Lastly, before turning it back over to John, I wanted to highlight a special item on page 18 in the appendix. In the third quarter, we completed a study that resulted in a favorable R&D tax credit of approximately $44 million, which was approved by the IRS. The credit was for prior period expenses associated with R&D investments. The favorable credit was excluded from our results and was noted as a special item. The favorable R&D tax credit reflects Howmet's continued investment in innovation and technology.

最後，在將其轉回給 John 之前，我想強調附錄中第 18 頁的一個特殊項目。第三季度，我們完成了一項研究，獲得了約 4,400 萬美元的優惠研發稅收抵免，並獲得了美國國稅局 (IRS) 的批准。此抵免額用於與研發投資相關的前期費用。有利的信用被排除在我們的結果之外，並被視為一個特殊項目。優惠的研發稅收抵免反映了Howmet對創新和技術的持續投資。

Now let me turn it back over to John.

現在讓我把它轉回給約翰。

Thanks, Ken, and let's move to page 11.

謝謝 Ken，讓我們翻到第 11 頁。

First, let me start with an overview of the markets for 2025 before moving to the specific guidance for the balance of 2024. Starting with commercial aerospace. Demand for air travel continues to be robust. This applies to both passengers and freight traffic. Air traffic growth rates have eased compared to the recent past as we moved into the second half of 2024 as we expect with normal seasonality, albeit the growth of Asia Pacific continues to be strong at, I think, about 7%.

首先，讓我先概述 2025 年的市場，然後再介紹 2024 年剩餘時間的具體指引。從商業航空航天開始。航空旅行的需求持續強勁。這適用於客運和貨運。隨著我們進入 2024 年下半年，正如我們對正常季節性的預期一樣，航空運輸量增長率與近期相比有所放緩，儘管亞太地區的增長仍然強勁，我認為約為 7%。

However, given the recent years of underproduction of aircraft, demand for additional spares and the record backlogs of new orders, the order book outlook for aircraft production, and our products continues to look very healthy and should lead to higher growth for several years compared to historic norms. And this is supported by future passenger growth of approximately 4% to 5% a year.

然而，鑑於近年來飛機生產不足、對額外備件的需求以及創紀錄的新訂單積壓，飛機生產的訂單前景以及我們的產品仍然看起來非常健康，並且與去年同期相比，應該會帶來未來幾年的更高成長。未來每年約 4% 至 5% 的客運成長率將支持這一點。

In 2025, we envision commercial aerospace growth to be about 12% plus or minus, and leading to the total revenue growth for the company of about 7.5%, plus or minus. It should be noted that at the start of 2024, we envisioned a similar growth but we managed to exceed this. However, we need to see sustained and consistent narrow-body aircraft production to be confident.

到 2025 年，我們預計商業航空航太成長約為 12%上下，從而導致公司總收入成長約 7.5%上下。應該指出的是，在 2024 年初，我們預計會出現類似的成長，但我們成功超越了這個目標。然而，我們需要看到窄體飛機持續穩定的生產才能充滿信心。

For 2025, defense aerospace growth continues to be solid and is forecasted at mid-single digits with both F-35 spares and legacy aircraft production, all contributing. IGT is envisaged to grow at mid-single digits, with oil and gas a little bit higher. The outlook for commercial truck wheels continues to be muted in the fourth quarter of this year and the first two quarters of 2025, with the prospect of some pickup in the second half of the year.

到 2025 年，國防航空航太將繼續保持穩健成長，預計將實現中個位數成長，F-35 備件和傳統飛機生產都將做出貢獻。IGT 預計將以中個位數成長，其中石油和天然氣成長略高。今年第四季和 2025 年前兩個季度，商用卡車車輪的前景持續黯淡，下半年預計將有所回升。

The second half of 2025 potential is principally due to North America, where it is envisioned that the early stages of truck prebuying will occur in response to the new environmental regulations, which become effective in 2027.

2025 年下半年的潛力主要來自北美，預計卡車預購的早期階段將發生，以回應 2027 年生效的新環境法規。

Let me now turn to the topic of future IGT demand, which I referred to in our August call, when I used the words of AI for the first time. Firstly, let me address AI. Of course, we are keeping current with AI developments and use in our offices and manufacturing plants. However, what I would like to address is the effect on future revenues for Howmet as we address the increased demand for electricity over the next few years. AI, data center builds and cryptocurrency mining all impact positively the future energy demand. Examples are AI computer capacity, which has grown over 50% per quarter since the start of 2023.

現在讓我談談未來 IGT 需求的話題，這是我在 8 月的電話會議中首次使用人工智慧一詞時提到的。首先，讓我談談人工智慧。當然，我們會跟上人工智慧的發展以及我們辦公室和製造工廠的使用。然而，我想討論的是，隨著我們解決未來幾年不斷增長的電力需求，這對 Howmet 未來收入的影響。人工智慧、資料中心建置和加密貨幣挖礦都對未來的能源需求產生正面影響。例如，自 2023 年初以來，人工智慧電腦容量每季成長超過 50%。

Data center power consumption which was 19 gigawatts in 2023 is expected to increase to 50 gigawatts in 2030. Much of the demand is from cloud hyperscalers that is Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Oracle. An AI query results in 10x the electricity usage of a Google search. Data center build-outs are expected to be approximately $600 billion by 2028, and they require uninterruptible electricity supply. This is likely to be fulfilled by a combination of possibly nuclear, and certainly IGT power generation in some percentage combination.

2023 年資料中心功耗為 19 吉瓦，預計到 2030 年將增加到 50 吉瓦。大部分需求來自雲端超大規模供應商，例如 Meta、微軟、亞馬遜、谷歌和甲骨文。人工智慧查詢的耗電量是 Google 搜尋的 10 倍。到 2028 年，資料中心的擴建預計將達到約 6,000 億美元，並且需要不間斷的電力供應。這可能透過核能發電以及一定比例的 IGT 發電的組合來實現。

While we are unsure about the exact demand, what we see are new plans for gas generation. For example, Duke, AEP and Dominion have announced plans for an additional 18 gigawatts of new gas generation over the next 10 years. We see this as not just a US phenomenon, but a worldwide one, and consider Howmet well positioned in the supply chain given our IGT turbine blades since we support GE Vernova, Siemens, Mitsubishi Heavy and Ansaldo, given our global network where we are the number one supplier of turbine blades for each customer.

雖然我們不確定確切的需求，但我們看到的是天然氣發電的新計劃。例如，Duke、AEP 和 Dominion 已宣布計劃在未來 10 年內新增 18 吉瓦的天然氣發電量。我們認為這不僅是美國現象，而且是世界範圍內的現象，考慮到我們的IGT 渦輪葉片，Howmet 在供應鏈中處於有利地位，因為我們支持GE Vernova、西門子、三菱重工和Ansaldo，考慮到我們的全球網絡，我們是為每位客戶提供渦輪葉片的第一供應商。

While this will have limited effects in 2025, growth will begin in earnest in 2026. Beyond that, we have optimism for the addressable market over the next several years. In summary, 2025 is expected to be strong for Howmet.

雖然這在 2025 年的影響有限，但成長將從 2026 年開始。除此之外，我們對未來幾年的潛在市場持樂觀態度。總而言之，預計 2025 年 Howmet 將表現強勁。

Let me turn to commercial aerospace since this impact is significant. External forecasting agencies envision aircraft production increases significantly ahead of our view. We have considered the gradual restart of the Boeing 737 assembly lines now that the strike has settled, plus the supply chain impacts on Airbus mentioned by themselves. We have tempered the builds accordingly, and further adjusted for the 2024 under builds by Boeing compared to their planned build rates due to inventory considerations.

讓我談談商業航空航天，因為這種影響是巨大的。外部預測機構預計飛機產量將大幅成長，超出我們的預期。既然罷工已經解決，我們就考慮了逐步重啟波音737裝配線，以及他們自己提到的對空中巴士供應鏈的影響。我們相應地調整了建造量，並出於庫存考慮，與波音計劃的建造率相比，對 2024 年在建建造量進行了進一步調整。

In doing so, we envision commercial aerospace growth to be about 12% with total growth to be in the 7.5%, plus or minus 1%, with stronger growth in the second half of the year versus the first half. Naturally, we will adjust the revenue outlook as we move through 2025, especially as we come to understand more about specific Boeing production.

在此過程中，我們預期商用航空航太成長率約為 12%，總成長率為 7.5%（上下浮動 1%），下半年增速將強於上半年。當然，隨著 2025 年的到來，我們將調整收入前景，特別是當我們對波音的具體生產有了更多了解時。

Now let's move to the near term and the Q4 and full year guidance. The one additional comment I would like to make for Q4 is that any weakness from Boeing and commercial truck wheels is offset by sales of additional engine spares.

現在讓我們談談近期以及第四季和全年的指導。我想對第四季度提出的另一項評論是，波音和商用卡車車輪的任何弱點都可以透過額外引擎備件的銷售來抵消。

The specific numbers are as follows: revenue of $1.87 billion, plus or minus $20 million; EBITDA $488 million, plus or minus $10 million; earnings per share of $0.71, plus or minus $0.01. And for the year, revenue of $7.41 billion, plus or minus $20 million; EBITDA of $1.895 billion, plus or minus $10 million; earnings per share of $2.66, plus or minus $0.01; and free cash flow of $920 million, plus $20 million, minus $30 million.

具體數字如下：營收18.7億美元，正負2,000萬美元； EBITDA 4.88 億美元，上下浮動 1,000 萬美元；每股收益 0.71 美元，正負 0.01 美元。今年營收為 74.1 億美元，上下浮動 2,000 萬美元； EBITDA 為 18.95 億美元，上下浮動 1,000 萬美元；每股盈餘 2.66 美元，正負 0.01 美元；自由現金流為 9.2 億美元，加上 2,000 萬美元，減去 3,000 萬美元。

One final comment is regards to future dividends. The plan is to increase the common stock dividend in 2025 by 25% from $0.08 to $0.10 with the first payment in 2025, subject to final Board approval. And the only other comment I'd make is that in aggregate, our net headcount for the third quarter was a zero increase.

最後一項評論是關於未來的股息。該計劃計劃將 2025 年的普通股股息增加 25%，從 0.08 美元增至 0.10 美元，並於 2025 年首次支付，但須經董事會最終批准。我要發表的唯一評論是，總的來說，我們第三季的淨員工人數成長為零。

Thank you very much, and we'll now move to Q&A.

非常感謝，我們現在進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

（操作員說明）Sheila Kahyaoglu，Jefferies。

Maybe if we could start off, obviously, you've given your 2025 guide, and you've talked about Q4 any weakness from Boeing being offset by spares. But in 2025, you've given a guide that's pretty in line with the Street. How are you thinking about commercial build rates, if you could talk about that?

也許我們可以開始，顯然，您已經給出了 2025 年指南，並且您談到了第四季度波音的任何弱點都被備件所抵消。但到了 2025 年，你們給的指南非常符合華爾街的看法。如果您能談談的話，您如何看待商業建設率？

It's tough to get to specific build rates at the moment. And if you start with this time Boeing rather than Airbus, I don't think it's clear to anyone yet the rate at which Boeing will build in the balance of November nor December or indeed exactly what the rate will be in 2025. What I've done is to look at the external forecasting agencies for total aircraft production next year by platform and by customer, and consider the increase from what I expect the 2024 actual is that, that increase is rather unrealistic given it stands at approximately 30% at this point.

目前很難確定具體的建造速度。如果你從這次是波音而不是空中巴士開始，我認為任何人都不清楚波音在 11 月或 12 月剩餘時間內的建設速度，或實際上 2025 年的建造速度。我所做的就是按平台和客戶查看外部預測機構對明年飛機總產量的預測，並考慮與我對2024 年實際產量的預期相比的增長情況，鑑於其約為30 架，這種增長是相當不切實際的％ 在此刻。

And so I think we need to reevaluate that and consider what is the art of the possible by way of builds of aircraft, starting with Boeing and the 737, all the way through their aircraft platforms. And then, of course, Airbus themselves as well, given their commentary regarding several types of parts and supply chain constraints. So we've just taken our best guess and we will give more color on that in our February call, Sheila.

因此，我認為我們需要重新評估這一點，並考慮飛機製造的可能性是什麼，從波音和 737 開始，一直到他們的飛機平台。當然，空中巴士本身也是如此，因為他們對幾種類型的零件和供應鏈限制發表了評論。因此，我們剛剛做出了最好的猜測，我們將在二月份的電話會議中對此提供更多信息，希拉。

But we've just said let's think of a more realistic number and feel as though a 12% increase year-on-year is quite doable. And certainly, it has to be better than 2024, which has really been a pretty miserable year for aircraft build and indeed, engine build. And so we are looking forward to better things but taking a fairly cautious view at this stage until we know more.

但我們剛剛說過，讓我們考慮一個更現實的數字，感覺同比增長 12% 是相當可行的。當然，它必須比 2024 年更好，2024 年對於飛機製造和發動機製造來說確實是相當悲慘的一年。因此，我們期待更好的事情，但在我們了解更多資訊之前，現階段持相當謹慎的態度。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research Partners.

羅伯特·斯塔拉德（Robert Stallard），垂直研究合作夥伴。

Just a follow-up really on Sheila's question in relation to the 2025 revenue forecast. I was wondering if you could give us some idea of what your thoughts might be on aerospace aftermarket revenues in whatever form for next year? And also whether you've included any risk of destocking on the back of this OEM production rate uncertainty?

這只是希拉關於 2025 年收入預測的問題的後續行動。我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對明年以任何形式的航空航太售後市場收入的想法？另外，由於 OEM 生產率的不確定性，您是否考慮了去庫存的風險？

Yes. So when we start talking about spares and future rates of revenue and increases, I'd probably like to deal with the topic in a fairly broad fashion because I think it comes to the heart of several questions, which may be asked during the course of this call.

是的。因此，當我們開始談論備件和未來的收入率和成長率時，我可能想以相當廣泛的方式處理這個主題，因為我認為這涉及到幾個問題的核心，這些問題可能會在這個電話中。

And I'm going to start off with, first of all, in our press release this morning, I think we indicated that we expect our spares revenue this year to be about $1.25 billion now, which is a further increase on the last quoted number, which is about $1.1 billion that we gave, I think on our August call.

首先，我想我們在今天早上的新聞稿中表示，我們預計今年的備件收入約為 12.5 億美元，這比上次引用的數字進一步增加，我想在我們8 月份的電話會議上，我們捐贈了大約11 億美元。

And I think the first point, I'd like to make, which I think is the fundamental and most important one for investors is the strategic positioning of the company. And what I mean by that is that in 2019, when our revenues were about $7 billion, our spares or our aftermarket exposure was about 11% of those revenues and obviously, a higher percentage of the Engine Products business. In 2024, given the outlook for the year and our revenues, say, close to $7.5 billion is that our spares or aftermarket exposure has risen to 17% and that is a very significant increase, especially given the growth in the OE builds as well in aggregate.

我認為我想說的第一點，我認為對投資人來說最根本、最重要的一點是公司的策略定位。我的意思是，2019 年，當我們的收入約為 70 億美元時，我們的備件或售後市場業務約佔收入的 11%，顯然，引擎產品業務的比例更高。到2024 年，考慮到今年的前景和我們的收入，例如，我們的備件或售後市場敞口將上升到17%，接近75 億美元，這是一個非常顯著的增長，特別是考慮到OE 建設的成長以及總計的。

And going forward, my thought, is over the next two, three or four years that, that level of aftermarket content of our revenues will go to be in excess of 20%. And so I think that what that means for the company, and therefore, the owners of the company is that it implies less volatility, and with less volatility given the exposure for -- to the OE production. That's really good for shareholders. So I think that's the most important point, which I think should resonate.

我認為，在接下來的兩年、三年或四年內，我們收入中的售後市場內容水準將超過 20%。因此，我認為這對公司以及公司所有者來說意味著波動性較小，並且考慮到原廠生產的風險敞口，波動性較小。這對股東來說確實是件好事。所以我認為這是最重要的一點，我認為應該引起共鳴。

And then I'd like to deal with spares in the more topical framework of supply chain constraints because you've heard and seen and reported in the press quite a lot of commentary around the availability of engine spares and turbine blades in particular, and its impact on engine production. So again, I'm going to repeat one data point that we provided in the last call to say that specifically on LEAP engines and the type of blade, which is currently used is that our output is up from 2023 by 40%. And for the top 10 turbine blades for the company across all engine manufacturers, our output is up by over 50%.

然後，我想在供應鏈限制的更熱門框架中處理備件，因為您已經聽到、看到並在媒體上報道了很多關於發動機備件和渦輪葉片的可用性的評論，尤其是其可用性。的影響。因此，我將再次重複我們在上次電話會議中提供的一個數據點，特別是在 LEAP 引擎和目前使用的葉片類型方面，我們的產量比 2023 年增加了 40%。對於所有引擎製造商中公司排名前 10 位的渦輪葉片，我們的產量增加了 50% 以上。

And of course, when the casting leaves Howmet, we don't designate which part of the end market it goes to whether it goes to a spares build or a specific OE engine build. And given the commentary by Airbus about having gliders and lack of engines is that we had and asked for a joint meeting of every interested party at Howmet to go through the production data, so we could demonstrate and show specific production.

當然，當鑄件離開 Howmet 時，我們不會指定其進入終端市場的哪一部分，是用於備件製造還是特定的原廠引擎製造。鑑於空中巴士公司關於擁有滑翔機和缺乏發動機的評論，我們已經並要求在 Howmet 召開每個相關方的聯席會議來審查生產數據，以便我們可以演示和展示具體的生產。

And what they could see is that plus 40% or 50% overall, and also the production of the new engine blade, which is awaiting the final approvals by the FAA and EASA. And what is remarkable, I think, is that we've increased production by those specific blades that I've talked about, while also producing many tens of thousands, and in fact, 500 engine sets of blades for the new type, that await pending approval. And those castings have left Howmet and been delivered to the customer.

他們可以看到的是，整體增加 40% 或 50%，以及新引擎葉片的生產，正在等待 FAA 和 EASA 的最終批准。我認為值得注意的是，我們已經增加了我所談到的那些特定葉片的產量，同時還生產了數以萬計、實際上是 500 套新型發動機葉片，等待著您的到來。這些鑄件已離開 Howmet 並交付給客戶。

So I've covered specifically what's been going on in terms of our production and also much more generally the strategic positioning for the company, which I think is much more fundamental than, I'll say, any specific commentary about production in 2024, which is, let's say, just moves into transitory situation. And of course, given the outputs of both the current and the future engine sets is that, that puts, I think, everybody in a really good position going forward.

因此，我具體介紹了我們的生產方面發生的情況，以及更廣泛的公司的戰略定位，我認為這比任何有關 2024 年生產的具體評論更為根本。當然，考慮到當前和未來引擎組的輸出，我認為，這讓每個人都處於一個非常有利的位置。

And of course, we're working really well with our customers to try to drive further increases in output, which ideally would be required. And so we expect both the increase in engine production next year to be robust and also the increase in spares requirements, which are also going to be robust. And even more importantly, leading to that longer-term trend of increasing engine spares and total spares for the company as a percent of our revenues.

當然，我們正在與客戶進行良好的合作，努力推動產量的進一步增加，這是理想情況下所需要的。因此，我們預計明年引擎產量的成長將強勁，備件需求的成長也將強勁。更重要的是，這導致了公司引擎備件和總備件占我們收入的百分比增加的長期趨勢。

And so, the other thing which I think is really good for us is that what we want, of course, is more aircraft production and more engine production, both of the more robust LEAP engines, the more robust GTF Advantage engine. And of course, then we'll be able to sell all of the other parts that we make for those engines, which are structural castings, low-pressure turbine parts for that part of the turbine and indeed fan blades as well.

因此，我認為對我們真正有利的另一件事是，我們當然想要更多的飛機生產和更多的發動機生產，包括更強大的 LEAP 發動機和更強大的 GTF Advantage 發動機。當然，然後我們將能夠出售為這些引擎製造的所有其他零件，這些零件包括結構鑄件、渦輪機該部分的低壓渦輪機零件以及風扇葉片。

So that's given you a pretty comprehensive answer to your specific question, but broadened it out, and I think in all of that, the most important thing is that strategic positioning with fundamental less volatility for our revenues, given the very significant increase in the aftermarket as a percentage content of the company.

因此，這為您的具體問題提供了相當全面的答案，但擴大了範圍，我認為在所有這些中，最重要的是考慮到售後市場的顯著增長，戰略定位從根本上減少了我們收入的波動作為公司的百分比含量。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

John, I wanted to continue on what you were just describing because you've got rising airfoil production for the current blades on the LEAP-1A, the LEAP-1B over time. And then you're also now have new lines doing the new blades, and we're going to see the LEAP-1B presumably the new blades for that next year. How do you think about your planning for production capacity for both sets of blades over time? And I'm trying to understand where you are today in terms of that capacity, automation and so forth to understand what the investment profile is likely to be?

約翰，我想繼續您剛才所描述的內容，因為隨著時間的推移，LEAP-1A 和 LEAP-1B 上目前葉片的翼型產量不斷增加。現在，您也有了生產新刀片的新生產線，我們可能會在明年看到 LEAP-1B 的新刀片。您如何看待隨著時間的推移對兩組葉片的產能規劃？我試圖了解您目前在產能、自動化等方面的狀況，以了解投資狀況可能如何？

Okay. So I think that everybody has heard that we are increasing our investment in the Engine business. And I'm not quite sure exactly what has been said regarding the exact aims of that investment. But essentially, given the robust demand overall for engine production increases, aircraft production increases, but also, in particular, the increased requirement for spares, given not only the temporary effect of the time on wing issue, Doug, which you've certainly commented and written about, but even more significant, I think, is the increase in requirement for spares over time given the fact that the more modern engines with their higher operating temperatures and increased pressures means that their shop visit frequency is increased.

好的。所以我想每個人都聽說我們正在增加對引擎業務的投資。我不太清楚有關該投資的確切目標的具體說法。但本質上，考慮到對發動機產量增加的整體強勁需求，飛機產量增加，而且特別是對備件需求的增加，不僅考慮到時間對機翼問題的暫時影響，道格，你肯定評論過這一點並寫過，但我認為更重要的是，隨著時間的推移，對備件的需求不斷增加，因為更現代的引擎具有更高的工作溫度和更大的壓力，這意味著它們的車間訪問頻率增加。

And therefore, we see, and indeed, we've been having very detailed conversations with our customers what that demand looks like over the next, not just one year and two years, but over the next five years, and looking to increase our capacities along with the right agreements to invest for that capacity. And so I believe we're in the best position that we've been in for many years in terms of understanding what that future demand pattern is and have really, I'll say, signed up to increase our production to meet that demand, which we see is going to increase for both the OE production over the next few years, commensurate with both narrow-body aircraft production and wide-body aircraft production, but also through the increase in spares as well.

因此，我們看到，事實上，我們一直在與客戶進行非常詳細的對話，了解未來的需求，不僅僅是一年和兩年，而是未來五年，並尋求提高我們的產能以及為該能力進行投資的正確協議。因此，我相信，在了解未來的需求模式方面，我們多年來處於最佳位置，而且我會說，我們確實已經簽署了增加產量以滿足這一需求的協議，我們認為未來幾年原裝備產量將會增加，與窄體飛機產量和寬體飛機產量相稱，而且也會透過備件的增加而增加。

And while I think the rate of change of the spares will change over the next -- it will even accelerate further with the time on wing issues to be addressed in the next two or three years. I just think we'll see increased demand overall for those spares with uninterrupted increases, albeit at different percentages between the years, let's say, certainly for the next five, seven years, and I'm not willing to comment much further beyond that. And I think you see that our engine customers also building out additional MRO shops to take account of that increased frequency of engine visits.

雖然我認為備件的更換速度將在未來發生變化，但隨著未來兩三年內解決機翼問題的時間的推移，備件的更換速度甚至會進一步加快。我只是認為我們會看到對這些備件的總體需求不斷增加，儘管各年之間的百分比不同，比如說，肯定是在未來五、七年，除此之外我不願意進一步發表評論。我認為您會看到，我們的引擎客戶還建立了額外的 MRO 商店，以考慮到引擎訪問頻率的增加。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

John, can you talk a bit about what's driving this re-acceleration in incremental margins in the fourth quarter? And I was curious if there's anything you'd be willing to offer at this point, just to level set us on how to think about what this recent strength in incremental margins means for the trend going into next year.

約翰，您能談談是什麼推動了第四季獲利增量的重新加速嗎？我很好奇您現在是否願意提供任何信息，只是為了讓我們了解如何思考近期增量利潤的強勁勢頭對明年的趨勢意味著什麼。

I certainly don't want to get into any margin commentary for next year because I think as you appreciate, nothing's ever linear. You can't just extrapolate a line, certainly not for margins because things occur at different times and at different rates. I think that when one of the determinants of your margin rate is also the rate of change for your top line. And then that rate of change is not just down to the top line, but your ability to convert at a higher level of efficiency.

我當然不想對明年的利潤率進行任何評論，因為我認為正如你所理解的，沒有什麼是線性的。你不能只是推斷一條線，當然不能推斷利潤，因為事情發生在不同的時間和不同的速率。我認為保證金率的決定因素之一也是收入的變化率。然後，變化率不僅影響營收，還影響您以更高效率進行轉換的能力。

And so given, I think the significant uncertainty and given the expectation that as we build out this capacity, we're going to have to take on increased labor next year. It's one of those things where, while I think we're going to see the benefits of the leverage to volume, we're also going to have the impact of the getting a lot of people trained in the company to meet those future production requirements going forward.

因此，我認為存在很大的不確定性，並且考慮到隨著我們建立這種能力，我們明年將不得不增加勞動力。其中之一是，雖然我認為我們將看到產量槓桿的好處，但我們也將產生影響，讓許多人在公司接受培訓以滿足未來的生產要求繼續前進。

So we've probably hit a pretty good patch over the last two or three quarters in terms of productivity increases within the company. So you've seen maybe a net 600 people recruited in the first quarter, maybe 400 in the second quarter. And while we've increased in our Engine business in Q3 a net zero for the company and really trying to hold that for the balance of year, while expecting that we're going to need to reaccelerate our hiring as we go into 2025 such that when we commence production on much of the new equipment we've been talking about is that the workforce will be trained so that we can keep our levels of quality and our levels of delivery performance in the -- I think, in the really good zone that they've been and able to respond to the customers' demand.

因此，在過去的兩三個季度中，我們在公司內部生產力的提高方面可能已經取得了相當不錯的成績。所以你看到第一季可能淨招募 600 人，第二季可能淨招募 400 人。雖然我們在第三季度增加了發動機業務，公司的淨零排放量並確實努力在今年餘下的時間裡保持這一水平，同時預計我們將需要在進入 2025 年時重新加速招聘，以便當我們開始生產許多新設備時，我們一直在談論的是，將對勞動力進行培訓，以便我們能夠將我們的品質水平和交付績效水平保持在——我認為，在非常好的區域他們已經並且能夠響應客戶的需求。

So I think we've seen the benefits of that. But at this point, I don't really have any margin comments regarding next year. And indeed, I don't think you can extrapolate anything from this at this point in time, apart from acknowledging that we've got the volume increase of the 7.5% I've talked about plus or minus.

所以我認為我們已經看到了這樣做的好處。但目前，我對明年還沒有任何保證金評論。事實上，除了承認我們已經實現了我所說的 7.5% 的成交量增長（正負）之外，我認為此時您無法從中推斷出任何內容。

And then the net effect of the additional hiring as we go into next year, which puts us in a position, hopefully, of continued, really excellent supply that I've also talked about, picking on that spares question. And then going into 2026 where we see the requirements, again, increase for both OE production on the commercial aerospace side and indeed spares again.

然後，隨著我們進入明年，額外招聘的淨效應將使我們處於一個位置，希望能夠持續提供真正出色的供應，我也談到過，針對備件問題。然後進入 2026 年，我們看到商業航空航太方面的原裝備生產和備件的需求再次增加。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

So I know there are a lot of things kind of that go into this potentially. But just at a high level, given the market share gains on the Engines side that you've hinted at that will start to come in a bit, I guess, in '25, but more so in '26. If aero revenue growth does turn out to be 12% in '25, would you expect that your aero revenue growth would accelerate off that level in 2026 based on the market share pickup?

所以我知道有很多事情都可能涉及這一點。但只是在高水平上，考慮到您暗示的引擎方面的市場份額的增長，我想，我想，在 25 年，但在 26 年，情況會有所增加。如果航空航太收入成長在 25 年確實達到 12%，您是否預期基於市場份額的提升，您的航空航太收入成長將在 2026 年加速超過該水準？

Yes, I keep thinking about what's the trajectory of aircraft production. And we've heard a lot of commentary about supply chain and supply chain constraints over the last two, three, four years now. And to the point where almost the first response is always supply chain. I think those constraints have to begin to ease and time is a great healer. And I think as each one has mentioned, I see the potential for further improvements in the wider supply chain performance.

是的，我一直在思考飛機生產的軌跡是什麼。在過去的兩年、三年、四年裡，我們聽到了很多關於供應鏈和供應鏈限制的評論。幾乎第一個反應總是供應鏈。我認為這些限制必須開始緩解，而時間是最好的治療劑。我認為正如每個人都提到的那樣，我看到了更廣泛的供應鏈績效進一步改善的潛力。

And so while I still think of 2025 as a year of flux given the targets to increase the Airbus A320, 321 and the introducing of new XLR and obviously, the really first for increasing A350 if those supply chain constraints can be resolved. But similarly, Boeing, I mean, the additional overlay there is that you have to gain confidence in the restart of production while under FAA oversight to be able to increase their production.

因此，雖然我仍然認為2025 年是不斷變化的一年，但考慮到增加空中巴士A320、321 的目標以及引入新的XLR，顯然，如果這些供應鏈限制能夠得到解決，這確實是增加A350 的第一個。但同樣，波音公司，我的意思是，額外的覆蓋範圍是，你必須在美國聯邦航空局的監督下對重啟生產有信心，才能增加產量。

But certainly, the demand for new aircraft is there going back to the fundamentals for airlines, which is not just for fuel efficiency, but even more importantly, for emissions, which I think are here and will continue and particularly in other parts of the world as well, where the carbon footprint is really important. And so those requirements for aircraft are there, and you've seen aircraft held in service, probably longer than ideally would have been wanted given the lack of production.

但可以肯定的是，對新飛機的需求回到了航空公司的基本面，這不僅僅是為了燃油效率，更重要的是為了排放，我認為這種情況已經存在並將持續下去，特別是在世界其他地區同樣，碳足跡也非常重要。因此，對飛機的這些要求是存在的，並且您已經看到飛機的服役時間可能比由於生產不足而理想的預期時間要長。

So maybe while 2025 is still another year of flux and sorting out, which I don't think is going to be totally smooth is that surely by 2026, we're going to be in a better position than the aircraft and the backlogs are there. And so I get really optimistic that aircraft production is going to improve. And that combined with the vectors of demand that I talked about on the call for electricity, and therefore, what I expect to be an increasing demand certainly for our IGT business, and see no diminution of demand by countries around the world for, for example, the F-35 or even legacy fighters like the F-15 and the F-16. I just think all of that as positives as we go forward. And so that plus the additional spares demand and the capacity we're putting in, I think we can get pretty optimistic that 2026 should be a further step up on 2025.

因此，雖然 2025 年仍然是不斷變化和整理的一年，但我認為這不會完全順利，但到 2026 年，我們肯定會處於比飛機和積壓訂單更好的位置。因此，我對飛機產量將會改善感到非常樂觀。再加上我在電力呼籲中談到的需求向量，因此，我預計我們的 IGT 業務的需求肯定會增加，並且世界各國的需求不會減少，例如、F-35 甚至F-15 和F-16等傳統戰鬥機。我只是認為所有這些都是我們前進的積極因素。因此，加上額外的備件需求和我們投入的產能，我認為我們可以非常樂觀地認為 2026 年應該比 2025 年更進一步。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

I think, John, one of the biggest areas of growth from your guidance initially over the last couple of years has been on the defense side. And so I'm just curious, the mid-single-digit placeholder you have, do you think that's as conservative for the last couple of years? And given the F-35 is kicking back in, in terms of deliveries within Structures and obviously, I'm sure the airfoils business is going gangbusters, why is it only mid-single-digit growth?

我認為，約翰，在過去幾年裡，在你最初的指導下，最大的成長領域之一就是防守方面。所以我很好奇，你所擁有的中間個位數佔位符，你認為過去幾年這是否保守？鑑於 F-35 正在恢復，就結構內的交付而言，顯然，我確信翼型件業務將會蓬勃發展，為什麼它只有中位數的成長？

At the moment, if you take Lockheed's stated production, let's say, 150 aircraft, I think it was 152, but as we all know, they've struggled to produce that each year, and deliveries have been somewhat less than that given the software issues that are being or have been resolved. And so I think we're going to see higher deliveries than production over the next two or three years.

目前，如果你看洛克希德公司聲稱的產量，比如說 150 架飛機，我認為是 152 架，但眾所周知，他們每年都在努力生產這一數量，而且交付量略低於軟體的交付量正在或已經解決的問題。因此，我認為未來兩三年我們將看到交付量高於產量。

And production still maybe incrementing up a little bit maybe to the 152 to 156 level. And so I mean, that's only 4 aircraft so it's like 2% or 3%. I'm more optimistic that we see spares demand increase because the engine and aircraft fleet is now over 1,000 worldwide. And indeed, in Europe over the next few years, it's going to increase to 600 by the end of the decade. And so that additional OE demand bodes well for engine spares demand over the next few years. So I'm optimistic about that.

產量可能仍會略有增加，可能達到 152 至 156 的水平。所以我的意思是，只有 4 架飛機，所以大約是 2% 或 3%。我更樂觀地認為，我們看到備件需求會增加，因為全球範圍內的發動機和飛機機隊數量已超過 1,000 架。事實上，在未來幾年中，歐洲的數量將在本世紀末增加到 600 個。因此，額外的原廠需求預示著未來幾年引擎備件需求的好兆頭。所以我對此持樂觀態度。

And also on the bulkhead side, particularly on the titanium bulkhead side, that should also begin to improve, given that, I think this quarter, and I'm hopeful it's this quarter and doesn't continue into 2025, that the excess inventory, which was at our customer from, let's say, builds, which have been anticipated, but did not occur, Is that, that inventory is cleared out and the last part of it's cleared out in 2024, but with some possibility, there's still a little bit left over, but hopefully not into 2025.

而且在艙壁方面，特別是在鈦艙壁方面，這種情況也應該開始改善，因為我認為本季度，我希望是本季度，並且不會持續到 2025 年，過剩的庫存，比方說，我們的客戶從建造開始，這已經被預期，但沒有發生，是不是，庫存已清理完畢，最後一部分已在2024 年清理完畢，但有一定的可能性，仍然有一點剩下一點，但希望不會到2025 年。

So at this point, I think that, I'll say, mid-single digits is the right call. And of course, should, I'll say, Boeing find themselves able to increase their legacy fighter production, which they struggle with because of labor. And I don't know that's going to change this quarter, next quarter or the first half of next year. But should it improve, then I think we could become a little bit more optimistic, but not yet.

所以在這一點上，我認為，我會說，中個位數是正確的選擇。當然，我會說，波音公司發現自己能夠增加其傳統戰鬥機的產量，而他們因勞動力問題而苦苦掙扎。我不知道這種情況會在本季、下季或明年上半年發生變化。但如果情況有所改善，那麼我認為我們可以變得更樂觀一點，但現在還不是。

Okay. And just a clarification, the $1.25 billion of spares, is that about split even between commercial and defense/IGT at this point?

好的。需要澄清的是，價值 12.5 億美元的備件，目前是否在商業和國防/IGT 之間平分？

Yes. I mean the rate of growth on the commercial side has been higher in the last, let's say, 12 months. But the absolute level of the, I'll say, defense and IGT and oil and gas has been higher in absolute terms because that didn't see the very significant interruption that we had with COVID and post-COVID, and then because of the builds and all of that. And so at this point, the way I'm thinking about it is the -- roughly used to be 50-50. And I'm going to guess at it and Ken can correct me because I struggle to keep every single number in the front of my mind, but I'm thinking that we're 55% to 60% currently on the, let's say, non-commercial aero side, but with the commercial aero growing faster.

是的。我的意思是，過去 12 個月內商業方面的成長率更高。但我要說的是，國防、IGT 以及石油和天然氣的絕對水平從絕對值來看更高，因為我們沒有看到新冠疫情和新冠疫情后造成的非常重大的中斷，然後因為構建以及所有這些。所以在這一點上，我的想法是——過去大約是 50-50。我要猜測一下，肯可以糾正我，因為我很難把每個數字都記在腦子裡，但我認為我們目前的進度是 55% 到 60%，比方說，非商業航空方面，但商業航空增長更快。

And a lot of numbers there, Myles. But I'd look at it as commercial aero probably around $550 million plus or minus this year. And then on the defense and IGT, right around $700 million, plus or minus, right? But the key is, the numbers are up year-over-year, great performance compared to 2019, but accelerating as we exit the year. So all good.

那裡有很多數字，邁爾斯。但我認為它作為商業航空發動機，今年的收入可能約為 5.5 億美元左右。然後在國防和 IGT 上，大約是 7 億美元，上下浮動，對嗎？但關鍵是，這些數字逐年上升，與 2019 年相比表現出色，但隨著今年的結束，這一數字還在加速。所以一切都好。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

I wanted to ask just in terms of the spares demand you're seeing, and it sounds like the answer is no, but a lot of -- we think about older planes staying in service longer as a driver of aftermarket demand. It sounds like the aftermarket demand here is very much driven by the newer engines. And so to the extent that we were to see increased retirements at some point that doesn't really interfere at all with your expectations for spares growth over that kind of two- to four-year period that you outlined?

我想問的是您所看到的備件需求，聽起來答案是否定的，但很多——我們認為舊飛機的使用壽命更長，是售後市場需求的驅動力。聽起來這裡的售後市場需求很大程度上是由較新的引擎驅動的。那麼，我們在某個時候看到的退休數量的增加，根本不會真正影響您對您所概述的兩到四年期間備件增長的預期？

Several parts to pick apart in that question there, Seth. So the fact that the legacy aircraft and engines, let's think about the V2500 and the CFM56, I don't think their shop visits have peaked yet. And that's probably been pushed out further by the fact of lack of retirement. So previously, if you've gone back three or four years, I think everybody expected 2025 to be the peak demand for CFM56 and V2500, I think that was the expectation. But I think that, that peak is now going to be pushed out to '26, '27. It's probably more likely possibly even beyond '27. But I don't think you then expect a significant dip after that peak. It's pretty sustained and a very gradual decline.

賽斯，這個問題有幾個部分需要拆開。事實上，傳統的飛機和發動機，讓我們想想 V2500 和 CFM56，我認為他們的商店訪問量還沒有達到頂峰。由於缺乏退休金，這一情況可能會被進一步推遲。所以之前，如果你回顧三、四年，我想每個人都預計 2025 年將是 CFM56 和 V2500 的需求峰值，我認為這就是預期。但我認為，這個高峰現在將被推遲到 26 年、27 年。更有可能是在 27 年後。但我認為您不會期望在該峰值之後出現大幅下跌。它是相當持續且逐漸下降的。

Meanwhile, your assumption or statement that there are more spares requirements for the new engines. Well, that's absolutely true given the well-documented time on wing issues driven by, I'll say, the earlier-than-expected shop visits for those engines and that applies to both the GTF and to the LEAP engines, and improvements coming with the increased robustness of the suite of products, which is being introduced of which the early-stage turbine blades is only but one of those improvements.

同時，您的假設或陳述是新引擎有更多的備件需求。好吧，考慮到機翼問題的時間有據可查，這是絕對正確的，我想說，這些發動機的車間訪問早於預期，這適用於 GTF 和 LEAP 發動機，以及隨之而來的改進正在推出的一系列產品的堅固性得到提高，其中早期渦輪葉片只是其中的一項改進。

So we are part of much bigger packages of improvements reliability, but the way it stacks up is, I've talked about time on wing, which is creating higher and excessive demand now. But there has been a long-term trend with growth every year for the next many years because of the cycle of shop visits which we anticipate as those new aircraft are adopted even with the robustness of improvements that we've talked about.

因此，我們是更大的可靠性改進計劃的一部分，但它的疊加方式是，我已經談到了飛行時間，這現在正在創造更高和過度的需求。但由於我們預計隨著這些新飛機的採用，即使我們已經討論過的改進的穩健性，在接下來的幾年中每年都會出現增長的長期趨勢。

So I think I've covered all of it that's in your question. So the only thing I'm saying is that the legacy engines will also continue to peak yet.

所以我想我已經涵蓋了你問題中的所有內容。所以我唯一要說的是，傳統引擎也將繼續達到頂峰。

Ronald Epstein, Bank of America.

羅納德·愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

We've covered a lot of turf, but one area we haven't talked too much about is just kind of your continued capital deployment focus. Is there any M&A to do out there or not? How are you thinking about that? I mean can you expand the business out into maybe some adjacencies in kind of your core skill set?

我們已經討論了很多主題，但我們沒有過多討論的一個領域就是您持續的資本部署重點。是否有併購可做？你覺得怎麼樣？我的意思是，你能否將業務擴展到一些與你的核心技能類似的領域？

Yes. So we certainly are in a position of choice, and have the ability to look at potential acquisitions, and do study those things which come to the market even though the majority have really been companies coming out of private equity hands in the more recent past. It's possible given the change of administration, given the election is that deals which we thought may run some hurdles in the past may have less hurdle constraints in the future. I don't know yet. It's too early to -- apart from just speculative commentary there.

是的。因此，我們當然處於選擇的位置，並且有能力考慮潛在的收購，並研究那些進入市場的東西，儘管大多數實際上是最近從私募股權手中出來的公司。考慮到政府的更迭和選舉，我們認為過去可能遇到一些障礙的交易將來可能會遇到更少的障礙，這是可能的。我還不知道。現在斷言還為時過早——除了推測性評論之外。

So we are in a position to consider. We do, but also want to be disciplined enough to say we'll do small ones, if they're a technology play and you possibly saw that we did buy a company in the last quarter, fairly small, but important for us to enable us to take our engine capability to another level and tuck that one in. But we're also willing to, say, if we're going to do others, then they need to be of some decent size given the market cap of the company. So we're willing to look.

所以我們可以考慮。我們確實這樣做，但也希望有足夠的紀律性，說我們會做小事，如果它們是技術遊戲，並且您可能看到我們確實在上個季度購買了一家公司，規模相當小，但對我們來說很重要我們將我們的引擎能力提升到另一個水平並將其塞進去。但我們也願意，如果我們要做其他事情，那麼考慮到公司的市值，它們需要有一定的規模。所以我們願意去看看。

We also have to compare that to the cash-on-cash returns of buying our own stock back, and again, looking at it on a risk-adjusted basis. And so we want to be very disciplined in terms of the returns for that money for shareholders. And so we still see that buying our stock back is healthy and positive in returns of well above our cost of capital, but also willing to look at the returns from any M&A move as well, albeit there's nothing that we have currently on the stocks to go out in the next quarter or two that we can see. But we'll continue to look and examine it as appropriate. And, obviously, we'll keep you informed.

我們還必須將其與回購我們自己的股票的現金回報率進行比較，並再次在風險調整的基礎上進行考察。因此，我們希望在股東的資金回報方面非常嚴格。因此，我們仍然認為回購我們的股票是健康且積極的，其回報遠高於我們的資本成本，但我們也願意考慮任何併購舉措的回報，儘管我們目前對股票沒有什麼可調整的我們可以看到，接下來的一兩個季度就會出去。但我們將繼續酌情進行研究和檢查。而且，顯然，我們會隨時通知您。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納，TD·考恩。

Great results, guys. John, I wanted to ask on the high-pressure turbine blade that you guys are working on, on the 1A. Two things. Does it confer higher pricing to Howmet because it's more or less an aftermarket type product? And second of all, relatedly, GE mentioned it might be easier to manufacture. And do you view that as true? And therefore, is there a good opportunity to get throughput up quickly on this?

很棒的結果，夥計們。約翰，我想問一下你們正在研究的 1A 高壓渦輪葉片。有兩件事。它是否會因為 Howmet 或多或少屬於售後市場類型產品而賦予其更高的定價？其次，與此相關的是，通用電氣提到它可能更容易製造。您認為這是真的嗎？因此，是否有一個快速提高吞吐量的好機會？

I think the comment about it going mainly for aftermarket is I'll say, I don't understand that comment because every new engine, of the LEAP-1A variant, when that package of change is approved, is going to go to the new configuration and new turbine blade. So we'll see that fitted both for full OE production and full spares production going forward. And the -- in anything where additional performance is obtained, then it goes to that whole question of content, et cetera. So I think that deals with that part of the question.

我認為關於它的評論主要針對售後市場，我會說，我不明白這個評論，因為 LEAP-1A 變體的每一個新發動機，當該變更包獲得批准時，都將轉到新發動機配置和新的渦輪葉片。因此，我們將看到它適用於完整的原廠生產和完整的備件生產。在任何獲得額外效能的事情中，都會涉及內容的整個問題，等等。所以我認為這解決了問題的這一部分。

And as to producibility, we have some optimism that it may be. And we have, as I said, provided some several hundred engine sets this year in addition to manufacturing all of the increase in production to the existing type of turbine blade. So I'm pleased with that, but I still think it's early days yet in terms of absolutely giving clarity over what the long-term yields will be in production.

至於可生產性，我們對此持樂觀態度。正如我所說，除了生產現有類型渦輪葉片的所有增產產品外，我們今年還提供了大約數百台引擎組。因此，我對此感到滿意，但我仍然認為，就絕對明確生產中的長期收益率而言，現在還為時過早。

But I see nothing at this point, which leads us to have concerns, so we're well into it and looking forward to very -- hopefully, a very near-term cutover to the new type of blade. And then several months or a year or so later then also on the LEAP-1B for Boeing as well. But that's going to be, I'll say, another several quarters from now in terms of timing for that, but again, subject to the FAA and EASA oversight.

但目前我什麼也沒看到，這讓我們產生了擔憂，所以我們很投入，並且非常期待——希望能夠在短期內切換到新型刀片。幾個月或一年左右之後，波音的 LEAP-1B 也出現了這種情況。但我想說的是，就時間而言，這還需要幾個季度，但同樣要受到美國聯邦航空管理局和歐洲航空安全局的監督。

And this concludes our question-and-answer session in addition to today's conference. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect your lines.

除了今天的會議之外，我們的問答環節到此結束。感謝您參加今天的演示，您現在可以掛斷電話了。