Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加豪邁航空航太公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）請注意，本次活動正在錄影。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Paul Luther, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁保羅路德。請繼續。

Thank you, Drew. Good morning, and welcome to the Howmet Aerospace third quarter 2025 results conference call. I'm joined by John Plant, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Giacobbe, Executive Vice President, and Chief Financial Officer. After comments by John and Ken, we will have a question-and-answer session.

謝謝你，德魯。早安，歡迎參加豪邁航空航太公司2025年第三季業績電話會議。與我一同出席的有執行董事長兼執行長約翰·普蘭特，以及執行副總裁兼財務長肯·賈科貝。約翰和肯發言後，我們將進行問答環節。

I would like to remind you that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations. You can find factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections listed in today's presentation and earnings press release and in our most recent SEC filings.

我想提醒各位，今天的討論將包含有關未來事件和預期的前瞻性陳述。您可以在今天的簡報和獲利新聞稿以及我們最新的美國證券交易委員會文件中找到可能導致公司實際業績與這些預測有重大差異的因素。

In today's presentation references to EBITDA, operating income and EPS fees, adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, adjusted operating income, excluding special items and adjusted EPS, excluding special items. These measures are among the non-GAAP financial measures that we've included in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's press release and in the appendix in today's presentation. In addition, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis.

在今天的演示中，提到了 EBITDA、營業收入和 EPS 費用、調整後的 EBITDA（不包括特殊項目）、調整後的營業收入（不包括特殊項目）和調整後的 EPS（不包括特殊項目）。這些指標是我們討論中包含的非GAAP財務指標之一。與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表可在今天的新聞稿和今天簡報的附錄中找到。此外，除非另有說明，所有比較均以同比為基礎。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.

接下來，我想把電話交給約翰。

Thank you, PT, and welcome to the Howmet Q3 call. Let's start with the company highlights on slide 4. Q3 was a very strong quarter for Howmet. Revenue growth continues to accelerate and was up 14% compared to 8% in the first half. Within this revenue growth, Commercial Aerospace increased 15% and within this number, commercial aero part sales increased by 38% for a total spares increase of 31%. EBITDA was up 26% and operating income up 29%. Cash flow was also healthy at $423 million after capital expenditure of $108 million.

謝謝PT，歡迎參加豪邁第三季電話會議。讓我們先來看看第 4 頁的公司亮點。第三季是豪邁公司業績非常強勁的一個季度。營收成長持續加速，下半年成長14%，而上半年為8%。在此次收入成長中，商用航空航太業務成長了 15%，其中商用航空零件銷售額成長了 38%，備件總銷售額成長了 31%。EBITDA成長26%，營業收入成長29%。在資本支出 1.08 億美元後，現金流也保持健康，達到 4.23 億美元。

Year-to-date capital expenditure is approximately $330 million. Regarding share buyback, $200 million of cash was deployed to buybacks in Q3 with an additional $100 million buyback in October. October year-to-date buyback is now $600 million, which is $100 million higher than the 2024 full year. We also paid off the -- up of $63 million of the US term loan early, which was due in November 2026 and with the resulting net leverage now stands at 1.1 times net debt-to-EBITDA.

今年迄今資本支出約3.3億美元。關於股票回購，第三季投入了 2 億美元現金用於回購，10 月又追加了 1 億美元回購。截至 10 月，今年迄今的股票回購額已達 6 億美元，比 2024 年全年高出 1 億美元。我們也提前償還了 6,300 萬美元的美國定期貸款，該貸款原定於 2026 年 11 月到期，由此產生的淨槓桿率目前為淨債務與 EBITDA 的 1.1 倍。

Dividend payments were also increased in August by a further 20% versus the prior quarter and earnings per share increased by just over 34%. Other commentary, which may be helpful is that working capital days improved year-over-year, allowing for the increased capital expenditure for future growth and all within the free cash flow number previously referenced.

8 月股息支付較上一季進一步成長 20%，每股盈餘成長略超過 34%。其他一些值得注意的評論是，營運資金周轉天數同比有所改善，從而可以增加未來成長所需的資本支出，並且所有這些都在之前提到的自由現金流範圍內。

Head count did increase by a further 265 people, mainly within the engines business as we staff our new manufacturing plants. As planned, the increase in head count has slowed as we go into the second half, although we visit hiring again as we pick up in early 2026.

員工人數增加了 265 人，主要集中在引擎業務部門，因為我們為新的製造工廠配備了人員。正如計劃的那樣，隨著我們進入下半年，員工人數的成長速度已經放緩，儘管我們將在 2026 年初再次開始招募。

Now let me turn the call over to Ken to cover the markets and segment performance.

現在我把電話交給 Ken，讓他來介紹市場和各板塊的表現。

Okay. Thank you, John. Let's move to slide 5. So end markets continue to be strong, with total revenue up 14%. Commercial Aerospace was up 15%, exceeding $1.1 billion in the quarter. Commercial Aerospace growth is driven by accelerating demand for engine spares and a record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft with reduced carbon emissions. Defense Aerospace growth continued to be robust at 24%. Growth was driven by engine spares, which increased 33% and new F-35 aircraft builds. .

好的。謝謝你，約翰。我們來看第5張投影片。因此，終端市場依然強勁，總收入成長了 14%。商業航空航太業成長15%，本季營收超過11億美元。商業航空航太業的成長是由發動機備件需求的加速成長以及新型、更節能、碳排放量更低的飛機的創紀錄積壓訂單所驅動的。國防航空航太產業持續保持強勁成長，達到 24%。成長主要由引擎備件（成長 33%）和新型 F-35 飛機的生產所推動。。

As expected, commercial transportation was challenging, with revenue down 3% in the third quarter, including the pass-through of higher aluminum costs and tariffs. On a volume basis, wheels volume was down 16%.

正如預期的那樣，商業運輸面臨挑戰，第三季收入下降了 3%，其中包括鋁價上漲和關稅的轉嫁。以銷量計算，車輪銷量下降了 16%。

Finally, the industrial and other markets were up a healthy 18% driven by oil and gas, up 33% and IGT up 23%. In the future, it's likely that we will combine oil and gas and IGT when reporting revenue by market. The definition of oil and gas versus mid- to small IGT has become somewhat blurred since many turbines now have increasing end use for data centers.

最後，受石油和天然氣上漲 33% 以及 IGT 上漲 23% 的推動，工業和其他市場整體上漲了 18%。未來，我們在按市場報告收入時，可能會將石油天然氣和IGT合併計算。由於許多渦輪機現在越來越多地用於資料中心，石油和天然氣與中小型 IGT 之間的定義變得有些模糊。

So in summary, continued strong performance in Commercial Aerospace, Defense Aerospace and Industrial, partially offset by commercial transportation. Within Howmet markets, the combination of spares for Commercial Aero, Defense Aero, IGT and oil and gas was up 31% in the third quarter.

總而言之，商業航空航太、國防航空航太和工業領域持續強勁成長，但部分被商業運輸領域的疲軟所抵消。在豪邁特市場中，商用航空、國防航空、IGT 和石油天然氣行業的備件組合在第三季度增長了 31%。

Now let's move to slide 6. So starting with the P&L. Q3 revenue, EBITDA, EBITDA margin, and earnings per share were all records and exceeded the high end of guidance. Revenue was up 14%, EBITDA exceeded $600 million as it outpaced revenue growth and was up 26%. EBITDA margin increased 290 basis points to 29.4% and while absorbing the cost of approximately 265 net head count additions. Earnings per share was $0.95, which was up a solid 34%.

現在我們來看第6張投影片。那就從損益表開始吧。第三季營收、EBITDA、EBITDA利潤率和每股盈餘均創歷史新高，並超過了預期上限。營收成長 14%，EBITDA 超過 6 億美元，成長超過營收成長 26%。EBITDA 利潤率成長 290 個基點至 29.4%，同時吸收了約 265 名淨新增員工的成本。每股收益為 0.95 美元，年增 34%。

Moving to the balance sheet and free cash flow. The balance sheet continues to strengthen. Free cash flow was excellent at $423 million. Free cash flow included the acceleration of capital expenditures with $108 million invested in the quarter and approximately $330 million year-to-date, which is higher than the full year 2024 capital expenditures.

接下來來看資產負債表和自由現金流表。資產負債表持續走強。自由現金流表現優異，達 4.23 億美元。自由現金流包括加速資本支出，本季投資 1.08 億美元，年初至今投資約 3.3 億美元，高於 2024 年全年資本支出。

About 70% of the capital expenditures year-to-date is for our engines business as we continue to invest for growth in commercial aerospace and IGT. Investments are backed by customer contracts. Quarter-end cash was a healthy $660 million. Year-to-date, debt has been reduced by $140 million as we paid off at par the US term loan, which was due in November of 2026.

今年迄今為止，我們約 70% 的資本支出用於引擎業務，因為我們將繼續投資於商業航空航太和 IGT 領域的成長。投資有客戶合約作擔保。季度末現金餘額為6.6億美元，處於健康水準。年初至今，由於我們以面額償還了將於 2026 年 11 月到期的美國定期貸款，債務減少了 1.4 億美元。

The early prepayments will reduce annualized interest expense drag by approximately $8 million. Net debt to trailing EBITDA continues to improve to a record low of 1.1 times. All long-term debt is unsecured and at fixed rates.

提前還款將減少每年約 800 萬美元的利息支出。淨債務與過去12個月EBITDA比率持續改善，達到1.1倍的歷史新低。所有長期債務均為無擔保且利率固定。

Howmet's improved financial leverage and strong cash generation were reflected in S&P's Q3 rating upgrade from BBB to BBB+, which is three notches into investment grade. Liquidity remains strong with a healthy cash balance and a $1 billion undrawn revolver, complemented by the flexibility of a $1 billion commercial paper program, both of which have not been utilized.

Howmet財務槓桿的改善和強勁的現金流產生能力體現在標普將其第三季度評級從BBB上調至BBB+，這比上調了三個等級，達到了投資級。公司流動性仍然強勁，擁有健康的現金餘額和 10 億美元的未提取循環信貸額度，此外還有 10 億美元的商業票據計劃，這兩項資金均未使用。

Regarding capital deployment, we deployed approximately $770 million of cash, common stock repurchases, debt paydown and quarterly dividends year-to-date through September. In the quarter, we repurchased $200 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $182 per share. Q3 was the 18th consecutive quarter of common stock repurchases. The average diluted share count improved to a Q3 exit rate of 405 million shares.

在資本部署方面，截至 9 月，我們今年迄今已投入約 7.7 億美元用於現金、普通股回購、償還債務和季度分紅。本季度，我們以平均每股約 182 美元的價格回購了 2 億美元的普通股。第三季是公司連續第18季回購普通股。第三季平均稀釋後股數改善至 4.05 億股。

Additionally, in October, we repurchased $100 million of common stock at an average price of approximately $192 per share. October year-to-date common stock repurchases are $600 million at an average price of approximately $156 per share. Remaining authorization from the Board of Directors for share repurchases is approximately $1.6 billion as of the end of October.

此外，10 月份，我們以每股約 192 美元的平均價格回購了 1 億美元的普通股。截至10月份，本公司已回購普通股6億美元，平均價格約每股156美元。截至 10 月底，董事會剩餘的股票回購授權額度約為 16 億美元。

Finally, we continue to be confident in free cash flow. We increased the quarterly dividend by 20% in the third quarter to $0.12 per share, which is up 50% higher than Q3 of last year.

最後，我們對自由現金流依然充滿信心。第三季度，我們將季度股息提高了 20%，達到每股 0.12 美元，比去年第三季度增長了 50%。

Now let's move to slide 7 to cover the segment results for the third quarter. The Engines products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 17% to $1.1 billion. Commercial Aerospace was up 13%. Defense Aerospace was up 23%. Oil and gas was up 33% and IGT was up 23%. Demand continues to be strong across all of our engine’s markets with strong engine spares volume.

現在讓我們翻到第 7 張投影片，了解第三季的各業務部門業績。引擎產品團隊在營收、EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率方面又創下了一個季度的新紀錄。季度營收成長17%，達到11億美元。商業航空航太業成長了13%。國防航空航太產業成長了23%。石油和天然氣價格上漲 33%，IGT 價格上漲 23%。我們所有引擎市場的需求依然強勁，引擎備件銷售量也十分可觀。

EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 20% to $368 million. EBITDA margin increased 80 basis points year-over-year to 33.3% while absorbing approximately 265 net new employees in the quarter. Year-to-date, engines have invested in approximately 1,125 incremental head count, which has a near-term margin drag, but positions us well for future growth.

EBITDA 成長超過營收成長，成長 20%，達到 3.68 億美元。本季 EBITDA 利潤率年增 80 個基點至 33.3%，同時淨增員工約 265 人。今年迄今為止，引擎部門已投資增加了約 1,125 名員工，雖然在短期內會拖累利潤率，但卻為我們未來的成長奠定了良好的基礎。

Now let's move to slide 8. The Fastening Systems team also delivered a record quarter for revenue, EBITDA, and EBITDA margin. Revenue increased 14% to $448 million. Commercial Aerospace was up 27%, defense aerospace was up 2%, general industrial was up 3% and commercial transportation, which represents approximately 12% of Faster's revenue was down 17%.

現在我們來看第8張投影片。緊固系統團隊也實現了營收、EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利潤率的季度創紀錄成長。營收成長14%，達4.48億美元。商業航空航太業務成長了 27%，國防航空航太業務成長了 2%，一般工業業務成長了 3%，而商業運輸業務（約佔 Faster 公司收入的 12%）下降了 17%。

EBITDA continues to outpace revenue growth with an increase of 35% to $138 million, despite the sluggish recovery of wide-body aircraft builds along with weakness in commercial transportation. EBITDA margin increased a robust 480 basis points year-over-year to 30.8% as the team has continued to expand margins through commercial and operational performance.

儘管寬體飛機製造復甦緩慢，商業運輸疲軟，但 EBITDA 仍持續超過營收成長，成長 35% 至 1.38 億美元。由於團隊透過商業和營運績效不斷擴大利潤率，EBITDA 利潤率年增 480 個基點，達到 30.8%。

Now let's move to slide 9. Engineered Structures had a solid quarter. Revenue increased 14% to $289 million. Commercial Aero was up 7%, and defense aerospace was up 42%, primarily driven by the end of the destocking of the F-35 program. EBITDA outpaced revenue growth with an increase of 53% to $58 million. EBITDA margin increased 510 basis points to 20.1% as we continue to optimize the structures manufacturing footprint and rationalize the product mix to maximize profitability.

現在我們來看第9張投影片。工程結構業務本季表現穩健。營收成長14%，達到2.89億美元。商用航空航太板塊上漲 7%，國防航空航太板塊上漲 42%，主要原因是 F-35 專案裁員計畫的結束。EBITDA 成長超過營收成長，增幅達 53%，達到 5,800 萬美元。由於我們不斷優化結構製造佈局並合理化產品組合以最大限度地提高盈利能力，EBITDA 利潤率提高了 510 個基點，達到 20.1%。

Finally, let's move to slide 10. Forged Wheels revenue was essentially flat as a 16% decrease in volume was largely offset by higher aluminum costs, tariff pass-through and favorable warranty currency. EBITDA was strong at $73 million, an increase of 14% despite a challenging market. EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.6%.

最後，我們來看第 10 張投影片。鍛造輪轂的收入基本上持平，銷量下降 16% 的情況很大程度上被鋁材成本上漲、關稅轉嫁和有利的保固貨幣條件所抵消。儘管市場充滿挑戰，但 EBITDA 依然強勁，達到 7,300 萬美元，成長了 14%。EBITDA利潤率成長350個基點至29.6%。

The unfavorable margin impact of lower volumes and higher pass-throughs were more than offset by flexing of costs, favorable product mix driven by our premium products and favorable foreign currency. The Wheels team has continued to expand margins despite market metal cost and tariff uncertainty.

銷售下降和成本轉嫁增加帶來的不利利潤率影響，被成本的彈性調整、高端產品帶來的有利產品組合以及有利的匯率所抵銷。儘管市場金屬成本和關稅存在不確定性，但車輪團隊仍在不斷擴大利潤率。

Now let me turn it back over to John.

現在我把麥克風交還給約翰。

Thank you, Ken. Let's move to slide 11 to discuss the outlook. In summary, before I go into details, the outlook is solid. Air travel continues to grow year-over-year after a solid summer period. The backlog of commercial aircraft extends for many years, even after assuming increases in build rates throughout the next five years. The current aircraft fleet has aged. These factors combined to provide both healthy OE demand and the growing demand for aircraft aftermarket parts, especially in the engine for wearing parts, namely the turbine blades in the hot gas pass section of the engine.

謝謝你，肯。讓我們翻到第 11 張投影片來討論一下前景。總而言之，在詳細說明之前，前景一片光明。經過一個強勁的夏季，航空旅行量繼續同比增長。即使假設未來五年內生產速度不斷加快，商用飛機的積壓訂單仍將持續多年。現有飛機機隊已經老舊。這些因素共同促成了對原廠設備 (OE) 的良好需求，以及對飛機售後市場零件日益增長的需求，尤其是在發動機易損件方面，即發動機熱氣通道部分的渦輪葉片。

Defense sales continued to be strong with steady F-35 OE sales, plus some increase in legacy fighter jets, namely the F-15 and the F-16. This is also combined with growth in defense spare sales. In oil and gas, the demand is steady, while growth in IGT is extremely strong, again in both OE and aftermarket sectors.

國防銷售持續強勁，F-35 OE 銷售穩定成長，同時老舊戰鬥機（即 F-15 和 F-16）的銷售量也有所成長。同時，國防備件銷售額也有所成長。在石油和天然氣領域，需求保持穩定；而IGT（工業、天然氣和燃氣）領域的成長則非常強勁，無論是在OE（原始設備製造商）或售後市場領域。

The part of the market, which I have not previously made much commentary on is the midsized turbines of up to 45 megawatts where growth of both aero-derivative engines and dedicated midsized turbines is expected to grow for many years. This is mainly the result of data center build-outs and the need to supply these data centers with either independent fundamental electricity supply or with very fast-acting turbine response to ensure uninterrupted supply from the grid and from utilities.

我之前沒有過多評論的市場部分是功率不超過 45 兆瓦的中型渦輪機，預計航空衍生發動機和專用中型渦輪機都將在未來多年內持續增長。這主要是由於資料中心建設的需要，以及需要為這些資料中心提供獨立的電力供應或快速響應的渦輪機，以確保電網和公用事業公司不間斷供電。

It is increasingly difficult for us to separate the end market for these turbines between oil and gas compared to IGT. Commercial truck volumes continue to struggle with smaller fleets, in particular, not buying trucks due to the low freight rates and also combine this with a large price increase for Class 8 trucks, principally due to tariffs. The tariff changes continue to produce uncertainty for Howmet. However, the net tariff drag continues to be small at around $5 million plus or minus as discussed in the last earnings call.

與 IGT 相比，我們越來越難以將這些渦輪機的終端市場區分為石油和天然氣市場。商用卡車銷售持續低迷，尤其是小型車隊由於貨運價格低廉而不購買卡車，再加上 8 級卡車價格大幅上漲（主要是由於關稅），情況更加嚴重。關稅變化持續為豪邁公司帶來不確定性。然而，正如上次財報電話會議中所討論的，淨關稅拖累仍然很小，約為 500 萬美元左右。

The revenue outlook for the balance of 2025 has increased compared to the prior guide, benefiting from the stronger Boeing 737 builds and also engine spares. The build-out of our footprint with the five new manufacturing plants or extensions continues.

2025 年剩餘時間的收入預期較先前的預期有所提高，這得益於波音 737 產量增加以及發動機備件供應充足。隨著五個新製造工廠或擴建項目的推進，我們的商業版圖正在不斷擴大。

The most vital immediate part of our expansion going into 2026 is the new Michigan Aero Engine core and casting plant, which is on track with the machines now building some parts. There remains a lot more equipment to be installed during the next six months, but everything is currently as it should be. The new plant we've installed for tooling is now equipped and staffing well underway.

到 2026 年，我們擴張計畫中最關鍵的當務之急是新建的密西根航空引擎核心和鑄造廠，目前一切進展順利，機器已經開始生產一些零件。接下來六個月還有很多設備需要安裝，但目前一切都很順利。我們新安裝的模具廠現在已經設備齊全，人員配置工作也進展順利。

Being a little bit more specific regarding the 2026 outlook, we see revenues of $9 billion plus or minus is an increase of about 10% year-on-year. This number will be further refined in our February 2026 earnings call, where we will also provide more detailed guidance.

更具體地說，對於 2026 年的展望，我們預計收入將達到 90 億美元左右，比上年增長約 10%。我們將在 2026 年 2 月的財報電話會議上進一步完善這個數字，屆時我們也將提供更詳細的指導。

Moving to the fourth quarter of 2025. We see revenue to be $2.1 billion, plus or minus $10 million, EBITDA of $610 million, plus or minus $5 million. earnings per share, $0.95 plus or minus $0.01. And for the year, the numbers are -- revenue at [$8.15 billion](sic - please see slide 11, "$8.185 billion") plus or minus $10 million, EBITDA at $2.375 billion, plus or minus $5 million, earnings per share of $3.67 plus or minus $0.01 and free cash flow of $1.3 billion, plus or minus $25 million.

延後到2025年第四季。我們預計營收為21億美元，誤差範圍為1000萬美元；EBITDA為6.1億美元，誤差範圍為500萬美元；每股收益為0.95美元，誤差範圍為0.01美元。全年業績如下：營收為81.5億美元（原文如此，請參閱第11頁投影片，「81.85億美元」），誤差範圍為1000萬美元；EBITDA為23.75億美元，誤差範圍為500萬美元；每股收益為3.67美元，誤差範圍為0.01億美元；

In summary, 2025 is another good year for Howmet with free cash flow guided substantially higher than the last earnings call, even after the higher capital expenditure, which is there for future growth in the company.

總而言之，2025 年對 Howmet 來說又是美好的一年，自由現金流預期將比上次財報電話會議時高得多，即使在公司未來成長所需的較高資本支出之後也是如此。

Before moving to Q&A, I did want to thank Ken Giacobbe before his years of dedicated service. It's been quite the journey for Ken and him being my partner in all of this from his days at Alcoa to Howmet, which interestingly, as one of the three parts of former Alcoa is now worth more than the single Alcoa company ever was. All the very best to Ken in his well-earned retirement.

在進入問答環節之前，我想感謝 Ken Giacobbe 多年來的盡職服務。對 Ken 來說，這真是一段漫長的旅程，從他早年在 Alcoa 工作到後來的 Howmet，他一直是我的合作夥伴。有趣的是，Howmet 作為原始 Alcoa 的三個組成部分之一，現在的價值比 Alcoa 單一公司還要高。祝福肯退休生活一切順利，這是他應得的。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

I just want to offer you the opportunity of adding any comments.

我只是想給您一個機會，讓您可以添加任何評論。

Yes John, appreciate the kind words and appreciate the partnership. It's been a privilege and a pleasure to work with you, the Board of Directors, and the Howmet team. Results have been remarkable. I think a lot of that is driven by the positive culture that you had built over the years. That culture is one that we talk about quite a bit, one of focus innovation in terms of everything we do, empowerment, accountability, shared purpose and winning, which is quite refreshing.

是的，約翰，感謝你的讚揚和合作。能與各位董事會成員及豪邁團隊共事，我深感榮幸與愉快。結果非常顯著。我認為這很大程度上得益於你們多年來建立的正向文化。我們經常談論這種文化，即專注於創新，注重我們所做的一切，注重賦能、問責、共同目標和勝利，這令人耳目一新。

As I look forward, I believe Howmet well positioned for the future with a clear, clear path forward and an exceptional leadership team at the helm. So as I conclude my 20-year, 21-year tenure with immense gratitude and also confidence in Howmet's future, I want to thank you for the opportunity to be part of such a remarkable organization. So wishing you and the team continued success.

展望未來，我相信豪邁公司憑藉著清晰明確的發展方向和卓越的領導團隊，已經為未來做好了充分準備。因此，在我即將結束長達 20 年、21 年的任期之際，我懷著無比的感激之情，同時也對 Howmet 的未來充滿信心，我想感謝你們給予我成為這樣一個傑出組織的一員的機會。祝您和您的團隊繼續成功。

So I guess, Drew, we could move to Q&A.

所以我想，德魯，我們可以進入問答環節了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

克莉絲汀‧利瓦格，摩根士丹利。

And Ken, congratulations on your retirement. Thank you for all the thoughtful insights over the years and hope you've got something very fun planned. So maybe, John, the investments in technology you've made in Aerospace has yielded in Howmet being a clear leader in this area, especially for the hot section of the jet engine. Now pivoting to this data center build, we're starting to see this industry really gain a lot of traction. You've called out CapEx increases last quarter and also this quarter.

肯，恭喜你退休。感謝您多年來提供的所有寶貴見解，希望您已經安排了一些非常有趣的活動。所以，約翰，或許你在航空航天技術領域的投資已經使豪邁公司成為該領域的明顯領導者，尤其是在噴射發動機的熱端部分。現在轉向資料中心建設，我們開始看到這個產業真正獲得了巨大的發展動力。您上個季度和本季都提到了資本支出增加的問題。

Can you just take a step back and provide us more color on what the competitive landscape is like for turbines and IGT? How differentiated is your technology, the pricing environment? And what's your expected returns in this sector and how that compares with aerospace?

您能否退一步，為我們詳細介紹一下渦輪機和IGT的競爭格局？你們的科技和定價環境有何差異化優勢？您預計該行業的收益是多少？與航空航太業相比如何？

Okay. So that's a very broad question gives me the opportunity to talk now for at least an hour.

好的。這是一個非常廣泛的問題，給了我至少一個小時的時間來談論它。

I'll keep it to that question though, John.

約翰，我就只問這個問題了。

Yes. This is only one question. So first of all, clearly, this build-out of data centers and the requirement for electricity to not only also drive the processing and the microchips that for these advanced microchips that are being installed, but also the electricity required to call them is producing an extraordinary level of demand, which I think we know that the utility companies themselves and the grid is struggling to cope with and how can that be satisfied.

是的。這只是其中一個問題。首先，很明顯，資料中心的建設以及對電力的需求，不僅用於驅動這些先進微晶片的處理和運行，還用於調用這些晶片，這產生了巨大的電力需求。我認為我們都知道，公用事業公司和電網本身都在努力應對這種需求，而這種需求又該如何滿足呢？

It did change again, the new incoming administration in the early part of this year when there's a greater emphasis on foster fuels and really the natural gas being the technology of choice compared to renewables. And so that has caused us to think again regarding the investment profile for this business.

今年初新政府上任後，情況再次發生變化，更加重視化石燃料，天然氣成為比再生能源更受青睞的技術。因此，這促使我們重新思考這家企業的投資前景。

So the back class of the fundamentals appear to be well set. Certainly, you look for the next few years, the build-out and the requirements are extraordinary and the question remains, of course, what would it look like at the turn of the decade in terms of each future growth.

所以，基礎知識的後半部似乎已經打好了。當然，展望未來幾年，建設和需求都非常巨大，而問題依然存在，那就是，到十年之交，未來的成長前景會是什麼樣子。

But having said that, I do think these data centers, which are there not just for the introduction and use of AI, but also just fundamental requirement from storage means that, that electricity demand will be there. And so solid and gives us a lot of confidence to invest albeit we don't have the same clarity regarding backlog numbers that we have in the Commercial Aerospace market.

但話雖如此，我認為這些資料中心的存在不僅是為了引入和使用人工智慧，也是為了滿足基本的儲存需求，這意味著電力需求將會存在。因此，儘管我們對積壓訂單的數量不像在商業航空航太市場那麼清楚，但這仍然給了我們很大的投資信心。

So you don't quite have that same I'll say, clarity and visibility into the back orders. So it's caused us to keep rethinking our investments, and we've picked it up again this year. And you've seen with our guided capital expenditure increases in investments that we are making. And we expect that CapEx in 2026 and indeed going into 2027 will be also at high levels while not disturbing what our fundamental aim is, which is to convert 90% of our net income into free cash flow. And so it's a tall order at the same time, we're excited to be part of this growth opportunity.

所以，可以說，你對積壓訂單的情況沒有那麼清晰的了解和可見性。因此，這促使我們不斷重新思考我們的投資策略，今年我們又重新開始投資這個領域。你們也看到了，我們透過指導性資本支出增加，進行投資。我們預計 2026 年乃至 2027 年的資本支出也將處於高位，但不會幹擾我們的根本目標，即把 90% 的淨收入轉化為自由現金流。所以，這既是一項艱鉅的任務，也是令人興奮的成長機會。

When I think about sort of what's happening there is growth in both the large industrial gas turbines that you see bought by utilities, which provide the electricity, which is transmitted over the grid. But now given the large demand is that there are gas turbines being installed at the data center sites or plus the data center sites in a centralized facility to provide that underlying electricity.

當我思考目前的情況時，我發現大型工業燃氣渦輪機（由公用事業公司購買，用於提供電力，並透過電網輸送）的數量正在增長。但現在由於需求龐大，資料中心現場或資料中心集中安裝燃氣渦輪機來提供基礎電力。

And then beyond that, is that backups to all this or in the case of where you just can't guess a large gas turbine at the moment because they're quite scarce and orders are now going out. If you place a new order, you're not going to get that big land-based gas turbine to probably into the 2030 or beyond.

此外，所有這些是否有備用方案？或者，目前大型燃氣渦輪機非常稀缺，訂單正在陸續發出，在這種情況下，你根本無法預測。如果你現在下新訂單，可能要到 2030 年甚至更晚才能拿到那台大型陸上燃氣渦輪機。

Is that as a case where a lot of midsized volumes are now being installed, not just for the fundamental production of electricity, but also because they are very fast reacting is that it ensures that the supply of electricity to the data center is uninterrupted. And therefore, it's providing a lot of stimulated demand for the aero derivatives. And in fact, if you look at the I think results this week of Caterpillar. They you're seeing that, and they're one of our major customers in those midsized turbines. So it's quite exciting.

這種情況表明，現在正在安裝大量中型儲能電站，不僅是為了基本的電力生產，而且因為它們反應非常快，可以確保資料中心的電力供應不間斷。因此，它刺激了對航空衍生品的巨大需求。事實上，如果你看看卡特彼勒本週的業績，你會發現…你現在也看到了，他們是我們在中型風力渦輪機領域的主要客戶之一。所以這很令人興奮。

And then in terms of technology, it's going very much along the same lines that we have in -- had done in aerospace where we have moved or are moving from turbine blades, which are solid to turbine blades, which are increasingly core, what I mean my core is that you have air paths through those turbine blades to provide them with cooling air such that those turbines can be run at higher temperatures.

而在技術方面，它的發展方向與我們在航空航天領域所做的非常相似，我們已經或正在從實心渦輪葉片轉向越來越有芯的渦輪葉片，我所說的芯是指，這些渦輪葉片內部有空氣通道，可以為它們提供冷卻空氣，從而使這些渦輪機能夠在更高的溫度下運行。

So it's very much going along the evolution path that we've had in the aerospace world. And so as we move forward over the next, let's say two, three, four, five years is happening right now is that we're installing additional capabilities to be able to produce the sophisticated -- tolerance calls that enable that next level of technology to be achieved and that's both for the midsized turbines and indeed for the very large turbines that utilities tend to buy.

所以它的發展路徑與我們在航空航太領域所經歷的發展路徑非常吻合。因此，在接下來的兩、三、四、五年裡，我們正在逐步增加其他能力，以便能夠進行複雜的公差控制，從而實現下一階段的技術，這不僅適用於中型渦輪機，也適用於公用事業公司傾向於購買的大型渦輪機。

If you look at the most recent development, without giving you specific market numbers or customers. Some of those now initial turbine blades are as sophisticated as they possibly most sophisticated commercial, not necessarily military but commercial aerospace use in terms of the numbers of, I will say certain time pathways to those turbine blades.

如果你看一下最近的發展情況，雖然沒有提供具體的市場數據或客戶資訊。現在這些初始渦輪葉片中，有些已經非常複雜，它們可能是目前最先進的商用渦輪葉片，不一定是軍用渦輪葉片，而是商用航空航太領域最先進的渦輪葉片，就數量而言，我要說的是，這些渦輪葉片的研發需要一定的時間。

So -- and of course, with that goes content and value because it again is producing the level of capability electricity generation well above what you could have achieved turbines in, let's say, 5 years ago or 10 years ago? So it's a pretty exciting landscape in terms of playing to our spreads of the more sophisticated technology.

所以——當然，隨之而來的是內容和價值，因為它再次產生了遠超5年前或10年前渦輪機所能達到的發電能力水平？因此，就利用更先進的技術來發揮我們的優勢而言，這是一個相當令人興奮的領域。

It's causing us to expand. And you've heard me talk about the new manufacturing plant that we have or are building, in fact, at the end of this year, the structure will be complete to enable us to put new capabilities and, for example, new casting machines into that plant in the early part of 2026 to bring capacity on, not just for our customers in Japan, like Mitsubishi Heavy but also other customers like Siemens and GE and Ansaldo, et cetera. So -- and we're doing that, plus we're also expanding our plant in Europe significantly and also placing new capital in the existing footprint of our US facility.

這促使我們擴張。你們都聽我說過，我們正在建造或已經建造新的製造工廠。事實上，到今年年底，工廠的主體結構將完工，屆時我們將能夠為該工廠配備新的生產能力，例如，在 2026 年初安裝新的鑄造機，從而提高產能，不僅滿足我們在日本的客戶（如三菱重工）的需求，也滿足其他客戶（如西門子、通用電氣和安薩爾多等）的需求。所以——我們正在這樣做，此外，我們還在歐洲大幅擴建工廠，並在美國現有工廠投入新的資金。

So we're expanding in each of our three major sites where we produce gas turbine parts and really excited to be part of this journey which really is evolving very much in the same way as an aerospace business, not only for those midsized turbines but also now with the very large gas turbine. And so it's a pretty exciting time for us to be able to build out this business to be a very significant contributor for the company.

因此，我們正在三個主要的燃氣渦輪機部件生產基地進行擴張，我們非常高興能夠參與到這一發展歷程中，這一歷程的發展方式與航空航天業務的發展方式非常相似，不僅包括中型燃氣渦輪機，還包括現在的大型燃氣渦輪機。因此，對我們來說，能夠發展這項業務，使其成為公司非常重要的貢獻者，是一個非常令人興奮的時刻。

So I'll stop there just in case I'm now getting too carried away with it. But I want to make sure you hit the point of your question, Kristine.

我就說到這裡吧，免得我有點離題了。但我希望你能夠準確地表達出你問題的關鍵所在，克里斯汀。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

Myles Walton，Wolfe Research。

John, I'll try to ask a question that won't let you go on too long. But the market implied growth in your $9 billion, could you share that as well as perhaps you've been running, obviously, well ahead of long-term incrementals the 30% to 40% that you had previously spoken of long been blown past, is '26 another year of very high incrementals as we've seen in the last couple of years?

約翰，我會盡量問一個不會讓你說太久的問題。但市場暗示您的 90 億美元規模將會成長，您能否也分享一下這方面的資訊？顯然，您的業績遠遠超過了長期成長預期，您之前提到的 30% 到 40% 的成長目標早已實現，那麼 2026 年是否會像過去幾年一樣，再次迎來非常高的成長率？

Let me deal with your latter point first, regarding margins and incrementals. I think as you know, I don't really give color on that at this time of the year, that's more for the February call. So I'll certainly deserve any profit guidance for February. I note that in Q3, our incrementals were, again, quite healthy at 50%.

讓我先處理你提出的後一點，關於邊際和增量的問題。我想你也知道，在這個時候我不會對此發表太多評論，這更多是二月份的電話會議的內容。因此，我當然有資格獲得二月份的任何盈利預期。我注意到，在第三季度，我們的增量再次達到了相當健康的 50%。

Obviously, we've given you a guide already for Q4. So I think it's a similar number for Q4, but Ken could always correct me on that. So it's pretty strong for this year. Next year, I guess, when we come up with a number, I mean it will probably underwhelm you because it always does. We don't seem to be able to satisfy your expectations.

顯然，我們已經為您提供了第四季度的指南。所以我認為第四季的數字也差不多，不過肯隨時可以糾正我。所以今年表現相當強勁。我想，明年當我們得出最終結果的時候，它可能會讓你失望，因為一直以來都是如此。我們似乎無法滿足您的期望。

At the same time, I think that whatever we come up with will be a very satisfactory in 2026. So it's a long way of talking about the subject for a minute or two without actually seeing much at all. In terms of the first part of your question, which was where did we see end market growth. So my sense is that getting too deep into the guide at this point it's an approximation.

同時，我認為無論我們最終想出什麼辦法，到 2026 年都會讓人非常滿意。所以，說了這麼多，實際上卻只花了一兩分鐘談論這個話題，而沒有真正看到什麼。關於您問題的第一部分，即我們在哪些方面看到了終端市場的成長。所以我的感覺是，現在深入研究指南只能得到近似值。

I think Commercial Aerospace will be stronger in 2026. So I think the build-out of narrow bodies, both for Airbus and for Boeing will be stronger in 2026 as it has been in 2025. And also the likelihood of the widebodies, particularly the Airbus A350 and the Boeing 787. I think both of those are going to be at a higher build rate this year. So I'm pretty optimistic about Commercial Aero.

我認為商業航空航太業在2026年會更加強勁。所以我認為，2026 年空中巴士和波音的窄體客機產量將比 2025 年更強勁。還有寬體客機的可能性，特別是空中巴士A350和波音787。我認為今年這兩項工程的建設速度都會加快。所以我對商用航空市場相當樂觀。

So I see that being a few percentage points as an absolute higher than in 2025. In defense, coming off this year, which is pretty strong at plus 20, I can see us having a mid-single digit increase again on top of that into 2026. I'm pretty confident about our positioning on the defense side.

所以我認為，這絕對值比 2025 年高出幾個百分點。在防守方面，今年我們取得了相當不錯的成績，淨勝分達到了 20 分，我認為到 2026 年，我們還能在此基礎上再增加個位數。我對我們在防守端的部署相當有信心。

And on the -- I was going to call it the industrial segment, which will wrap up three segments, which is the gas turbine one, which I think you can sense is going to be at the high end, the oil and gas which would be in the middle and then general industrial, we should be at the lower end or combining all of that and say, basically, that just getting into double digits as an increase. So that will be the sense I have for the underlying big segment commentary for next year.

至於——我本來想稱之為工業領域，它將涵蓋三個領域：燃氣渦輪機領域，我認為你們可以感覺到它將處於高端；石油和天然氣領域，它將處於中端；而一般工業領域，我們應該處於低端，或者將所有這些領域結合起來，基本上，增長將達到兩位數。這就是我對明年主要細分市場評論的看法。

But while I'm on a role, I'll just talk about inside Commercial Aero because I know you've got a follow-up with the question like what's the underlying assumptions. So I think Boeing 737 will be higher. So I'll say I use 40 or getting into the 40s as an approximation, the A320 into the early 60s or maybe, I don't know, [623, 787] you 7.5 and the A350, maybe 6.5 could be 7.

既然我正說到這兒，我就談談商業航空內部的情況吧，因為我知道你們一定會問，例如其基本假設是什麼。所以我認為波音737的價格會更高。所以我會說，我用 40 或接近 40 來近似估計，A320 到 60 出頭，或者也許，我不知道，[623, 787] 7.5，A350，也許 6.5 到 7。

So it's in those sorts of areas. So it's is giving you directionally what I think you want without getting too specific because, again, I'd like to see how people close out our customers close out this year, what stated inventory is, as you know, certain of our airframe customers have been taking inventory down.

所以它就位於這類領域。所以，我給你指明了方向，我想告訴你你想要的，但又不會說得太具體，因為，再說一遍，我想看看大家是如何完成我們客戶今年的收尾工作的，以及所公佈的庫存情況，正如你所知，我們的一些飛機機身客戶一直在減少庫存。

And I have to think about the robustness of their build while they've been taking down and the consistency. And hopefully, we're going to see improved consistency into 2026 in the same way we've seen it for the last two or three quarters, where it's become somewhat a little bit more predictable.

我必須考慮他們在拆解過程中所展現的穩健性和穩定性。希望到 2026 年，我們能看到像過去兩三個季度一樣，比賽結果更加穩定，也更具可預測性。

Ronald Epstein, Bank of America.

羅納德·愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

This is Mariana Perez Mora on for Ron today. First of all, congratulations, Ken, on the retirement, and congratulations on your contribution to the company and the industry in general.

今天為羅恩報道的是瑪麗安娜·佩雷斯·莫拉。首先，恭喜肯光榮退休，也恭喜你對公司和整個產業的貢獻。

I'd like to follow up on -- try to dive deeper as we think about next year into two things. Number one, how we think about, I'll say, on the commercial aero part, destocking trends and aftermarket trends or spare engine trends despite like these runs that we are all expecting on OE.

我想就兩件事繼續深入探討——當我們思考明年的事情。首先，我們應該思考的是，就商業航空部分而言，儘管我們都預期 OE 會出現這樣的成長，但我們仍然要考慮去庫存趨勢、售後市場趨勢或備用引擎趨勢。

And the second one is when you think about IGT how dependent the guidance is on the capacity that will be coming online end of this year and mid next year? How sensitive is guidance to the timing of that like incremental capacity?

第二個問題是，當你考慮到IGT的績效指引對今年年底和明年年中即將上線的產能有多大依賴性時？指導意見對產能增量等時機的敏感度如何？

Okay. Let's deal with the IGT part first and then go back to commercial aero. This year, we've seen the benefits of both small increases in gas turbine build at the large land-based turbines, probably a slightly higher build in terms of those midsized turbines in percentage of increase.

好的。我們先來處理IGT部分，然後再回到商業航空部分。今年，我們看到了大型陸上燃氣渦輪機建設小幅增長的好處，而中型燃氣渦輪機的建設增長百分比可能略高一些。

But this year has also featured an increase in spares as the existing fleet both types of turbines and maybe the midsized turbines being very strong in terms of their space requirements because those fleets are working harder. So that gives you a picture there. For this year, when we move into 2026 and into '26 and '27, again, we're going to be -- we're going to see fundamental demand and this demand in turbine builds are expected to increase again into '27 beyond '26.

但今年備件數量也有所增加，因為現有的兩種類型的渦輪機，以及可能中型渦輪機，由於空間需求非常大，而這些渦輪機的運行負載更大。這樣你就能大概了解狀況了。對於今年，當我們進入 2026 年以及 2026 年和 2027 年時，我們將再次看到基本需求，預計渦輪機建造的需求將在 2026 年之後繼續增長到 2027 年。

Is -- on the OE side, it's going to be obviously a factor are all the turbines going to be actually be built that are planned and how we are able to step up to those builds. And so I see that as -- whereas this year, I'd say, been slightly stronger on the spares and -- but still solid on the OE side next year.

就 OE 方面而言，顯然會有一個因素，那就是所有計劃建造的渦輪機是否都能真正建成，以及我們如何跟上這些建造進度。所以我認為——雖然今年備件方面會稍微強一些——但明年原廠配套方面仍然會很穩健。

I think we're probably going to see a higher vector compared to this year on the OE demand but still strong spares demand. So again, I'm feeling pretty positive about those segments. I think difficult to judge exactly yet which one will win in terms of those two if there was at least between them.

我認為與今年相比，OE需求可能會更高，但備件需求依然強勁。所以，我對這些部分還是相當樂觀的。我覺得現在很難準確判斷這兩者之間誰會獲勝，如果他們之間至少勢均力敵的話。

Moving back to the Commercial Aero question. I've already given you a commentary regarding what I think build rates are, I think destocking essentially is finished this quarter, and I don't really see much evidence of that remaining if anything, it could only be a little bit left in the titanium area where people build up stocks because of either lack of build or trying to provide security stocks in the case of what happened after the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the supply issues out of [BSNPO].

回到商用航空的問題上來。我已經就我認為的生產速度發表了評論，我認為本季度去庫存基本上已經結束，而且我並沒有看到太多剩餘的去庫存跡象，如果有的話，可能只有鈦合金領域還存在少量庫存，因為人們囤積鈦合金要么是因為生產不足，要么是為了應對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以及由此導致的供應問題而採取的安全措施。[BSNPO]。

In terms of spares and engine space, I think the 2026 is going to be another very strong year for that. If you do with CFM first, then I envisage that it's going to be strong on the CFM56 because the existing fleets continue to work hard still a backlog of parts and the end units are going to be put back on wing and into the air.

就備件和引擎空間而言，我認為 2026 年將會是另一個非常強勁的年份。如果先採用 CFM 發動機，那麼我預計 CFM56 發動機將會表現強勁，因為現有的飛機機隊仍在努力運行，仍然積壓著零部件，而且最終的飛機將會重新裝上機翼並飛上天空。

And similarly -- and maybe even a higher area for those V2500 and the GTF engine. So spares demand is going to be very strong. And as these jet engines transition to the new, I'd say, versions of them, so the new parts, which you've got into the LEAP-1A and the ones which should go into the 1B next year and then into the GTFA then there'll be not only the OE demand but also the retrofit requirements for improving the robustness of those engines and to get a lot of engines back on wind. So I think I covered it.

同樣地，V2500 和 GTF 引擎的面積可能更大。因此，備件需求將會非常強勁。隨著這些噴射發動機過渡到新的版本，也就是LEAP-1A發動機上已經採用的新部件，以及明年應該會用於1B發動機和GTFA發動機的新部件，不僅會有原廠配套需求，還會有改造需求，以提高這些發動機的可靠性，並使許多發動機重新投入使用。我想我已經解釋清楚了。

Yes. And if I may squeeze another one, it looks like Asian history now because of how hectic the year is, but it wasn't long ago that you guys have to call for force majeure on the tariffs and raw materials, could you mind like giving us some color around like how you set today? And how you think about risks on raw materials and pricing and pass-throughs going into next year?

是的。如果我能再問一個問題，由於今年局勢動盪，現在看來亞洲正在經歷歷史性的變化。不久前，你們不得不以不可抗力為由暫停關稅和原料供應。您能否為我們介紹一下你們今天採取的措施？您如何看待明年原物料、定價以及成本轉嫁的風險？

Well, I think we're pretty solid in terms of pass-through capabilities either under existing contracts or with new agreements that we've made with our customers for each of our end markets. And so what was the gross effect that we could see, I think, originally, it was up to $100 million.

我認為，無論是在現有合約下，還是在我們與各個終端市場的客戶達成的新協議下，我們在轉嫁能力方面都相當穩固。因此，我們最初看到的整體影響是多少呢？我認為，高達 1 億美元。

That the delay of implementation and certain exemptions that have been provided maybe that number came down. And then recently, we've seen some of the tariff increase again, thinking now on the Class 8 area. So it's been moving around and still continues to move around even as recently as yesterday.

實施的延遲以及某些豁免措施可能導致感染人數下降。最近，我們看到一些關稅再次上漲，現在考慮的是 8 類地區。所以它一直在四處移動，甚至直到昨天還在繼續移動。

But the net effect is still sub $5 million for the year, and that essentially is the drag that's just in terms of timing of recovery. So as an issue for Howmet, it really is a nonissue, sub-$5 million, and therefore, hopefully, it disappears into the woodwork in 2026.

但全年淨影響仍低於 500 萬美元，基本上只是復甦時間的拖累。因此，對於豪邁公司來說，這真的不是一個問題，金額不到 500 萬美元，因此，希望它在 2026 年就消失得無影無蹤。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

Sheila Kahyaoglu，傑富瑞集團。

Congrats, John, on great results and Ken, on your retirement, although I'd argue with Kristine that working with John has plenty of fun. So I don't know what you'll do in retirement, that's even better. Can I --

恭喜約翰取得如此佳績，也恭喜肯退休，不過我倒要跟克里斯汀爭論一下，跟約翰一起工作其實挺有意思的。所以我不知道你退休後會做什麼，那更好。我可以嗎？--

I can agree with that, that because you say stop there and Ken, what the heck are you thinking?

我同意，因為你說就此打住，肯，你到底在想什麼？

Ken, I'm going to actually put this one on you just given, I got the comments on Howmet being more valuable, then the three pieces was very interesting. So over the next few years, where do you see Howmet state just given where the balance sheet is, leverage is at record lows, margins in each segment are terrific. So lots of areas of expansion. How do you think about Howmet over the next few years?

肯，我打算把這個給你看看，我收到了關於豪邁特更有價值的評論，然後這三件東西非常有趣。鑑於豪邁目前的資產負債表狀況，槓桿率處於歷史低位，各業務部門的利潤率都非常出色，您認為未來幾年豪邁的發展前景如何？所以有很多發展空間。您如何看待豪邁未來幾年的發展？

Yes, Sheila, I think I'm going to have to let John answer that one. I don't want to get fired this late, right?

是的，希拉，我想我得讓約翰來回答這個問題。這麼晚了，我可不想被解僱，對吧？

I think the -- if you look at the journey that we've made over the recent years, from a trying to install a performance culture through, I'll say, more difficult times of COVID. It came upon us fairly quickly and then trying to really invest in our technology and then really address growing the company.

我認為──如果你回顧我們近幾年的歷程，從努力建立績效文化，到經歷新冠疫情帶來的更艱難的時期。這個問題很快就出現了，然後我們開始真正投資我們的技術，並真正著手發展公司。

And I think the growth trajectory is very encouraging. And so while we've been like -- walking on chewing gum or doing the -- and it's not at all, we've been growing and improving our margin. And my thought is that we'll continue to do that. But if the value equation, then I think maybe the growth will be a more significant factor over the next five years than the margin factor, and that's not to say that the margin won't improve, that's what we come to work for every day to try to achieve that.

我認為成長軌跡非常令人鼓舞。所以，雖然我們一直像——如履薄冰，或做著——但事實並非如此，我們的利潤率一直在成長和提高。我的想法是，我們會繼續這樣做。但如果以價值為導向，那麼我認為在未來五年內，成長可能比利潤率更重要，但這並不是說利潤率不會提高，這是我們每天努力工作的目標。

I think there's lots of things yet to further expand in terms of whether it's increased automation capacities that we have or capabilities that we have in the company. There's the thing which we've been talking a lot about recently about how we can use the artificial intelligence and machine learning and our manufacturing plants.

我認為，無論是提升現有的自動化能力，或是提升公司本身的技術實力，都還有很多方面需要進一步拓展。最近我們一直在討論如何將人工智慧和機器學習應用於我們的製造工廠。

So it isn't just basic automation. It is data collection at extremes that we've never seen before. And when we have the opportunity next March, where we're planning on an Investor Day or Investor Technology Day facing it at Wisol plant again and we'll showcase the new manufacturing plants that we have there, beyond just the fundamental increase in robotics, which I think people have seen it also at a high level. It's another stage beyond that.

所以這不僅僅是基本的自動化。這是前所未有的極端資料收集方式。明年三月，我們計劃在 Wisol 工廠再次舉辦投資者日或投資者技術日活動，屆時我們將有機會展示我們在那裡新建的製造工廠，不僅僅是機器人技術的根本性提升（我認為人們已經從宏觀層面看到了這一點）。這比那還要進一步。

But for me, probably even more important that is that the what we've served the digital thread that we've been building throughout the manufacturing process from the chemical compounding right the way through core prep and then into [shaolin] casting and being able to provide data and individual traceability right back to which fundamental elements for each of our parts that we're manufacturing.

但對我來說，可能更重要的是，我們一直在建造貫穿整個製造過程的數位主線，從化學配製一直到型芯準備，再到[少林]鑄造，我們能夠提供數據和個人可追溯性，一直追溯到我們正在製造的每個零件的基本元素。

And then with that huge amount of data that we are positioning ourselves to collect, is that using various techniques to be able to use artificial intelligence because the sheer scale of data we have or we've got to have available to us takes us something beyond any human being could possibly advise data crunch. And so I think that's going to lend towards a further improvement in our ability to improve yields and an improved yield, of course, goes with economics.

然後，隨著我們準備收集的大量數據，我們需要運用各種技術來利用人工智慧，因為我們擁有或必須擁有的數據規模之大，已經遠遠超出了任何人類所能處理的數據處理能力。所以我認為這將有助於我們進一步提高收益率，而收益率的提高當然與經濟效益息息相關。

And then with the improvement in the yields, we can take the design tolerances to the further level, which you'll provide again for the next generation of content improvement and fuel efficiency for both not only our aerospace segment but also the gas turbine segment. So I think all of that coming together and using a combination of automation and AI and all the things we're trying to position for is going to be good for Sheila.

隨著產量的提高，我們可以將設計公差提升到更高的水平，而您將再次為下一代產品改進和燃油效率的提升提供技術支持，這不僅適用於我們的航空航天領域，也適用於燃氣渦輪機領域。所以我認為，所有這些因素結合起來，結合自動化、人工智慧以及我們正在努力佈局的一切，對Sheila來說都是好事。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

Noah Poponak，高盛集團。

Congrats, Ken, on the retirement and the evolution of this financial model. Wanted to come back to incremental margins. Guys, you had this historical framework a few years ago of 30% to 35% on the incremental and you've now created this kind of wall of tough compares, but you've now had two quarters in a row where you've had a well above the 30% to 35% despite comparing to well above that. And so I was hoping to better understand is price or productivity, the bigger driver at the moment. And then as you move into 2026, can you stay above that historical targeted range despite the tougher compares?

恭喜肯退休，也祝賀他完成了這項金融模式的演變。想回歸增量利潤。各位，幾年前你們的增量成長率設定在 30% 到 35% 之間，現在你們面臨著巨大的比較壓力，但你們已經連續兩個季度實現了遠高於 30% 到 35% 的成長率，儘管之前的比較數據也遠高於這個水準。因此，我希望更了解目前更大的驅動因素是價格還是生產力。進入 2026 年，面對更嚴峻的對比，你能否維持高於歷史目標範圍的利益？

Yes. I mean, again, I'm going to try to get away from 2026, Noah, at this time. And any number is always going to be a combination of things. In our incrementals, we've got obviously some leverage for volume. We've got the benefits of automation. We've got the benefits of yield. We've got the benefits of content and also, we have the benefits of price as well.

是的。我的意思是，諾亞，我現在想盡量避免談到 2026 年。任何數字都必然是多種因素的組合。在我們的增量銷售中，我們顯然擁有一定的銷售優勢。我們享受到了自動化帶來的好處。我們獲得了豐收帶來的好處。我們既享有內容方面的優勢，也享有價格方面的優勢。

So we have many individual threads going into that. And the only, I would say, parts which are currently negative would be the fairly high in gestation of labor, which takes, I think, as you know, a fairly significant trading time, never mind just the cost of recruitment.

所以，這其中有很多獨立的線索。而我認為目前唯一不利的方面是相當長的分娩週期，正如你所知，這會佔用相當長的交易時間，更不用說招募成本了。

And there's a slight degradation initially from those employees in terms of yield. And so what do I expect going forward is that hopefully, the drag of that labor becomes a little bit less because the denominator gets higher. But my guess is that we're probably going to have to hire a net higher number of people ultimately as we move through 2026 both for priming the pump again at the start of the year as some of the equipment I talked about comes in, plus the fact that we also envisage having to step up again into 2027.

最初，這些員工的生產力會略有下降。因此，我期望未來這種勞動力消耗的阻力能夠減輕，因為分母會增加。但我估計，隨著我們進入 2026 年，最終我們可能需要雇用更多的人，一方面是為了在年初重新啟動項目，因為我提到的一些設備即將到貨；另一方面，我們也預計在 2027 年需要再次擴大規模。

And so if you would ask me to call it today, I'd say we probably end with a higher net number. And so you've got that which will weigh upon us while still hopefully achieving all of the productivity improvements from the threads of automation and the new equipment coming in with a much higher level of, I will say, again, automation that we had in the past.

所以，如果今天你讓我預測結果，我會說我們最終可能會得到更高的淨收益。因此，一方面，我們將面臨一些壓力；另一方面，我們仍希望透過自動化和新設備的引入，實現生產力的全面提升，實現比以往更高水準的自動化。

So there's such a lot of moving parts. It's difficult to pass all of that out. And then the only thing I haven't mentioned is the content on average will improve again as we move into next year because we'll be moving from one generation of technology to the new generation technology at some point during 2026 for the LEAP 1B program as an example.

所以牽涉的環節很多。很難把所有這些東西都分發出去。還有一點我沒提到的是，隨著我們進入明年，內容平均水平還會再次提高，因為在 2026 年的某個時候，我們將從一代技術過渡到新一代技術，例如 LEAP 1B 專案。

And then, of course, we have the GTF advantage, which is also being made today in fairly small lots. But with that significantly increasing as we go into 2026, really to get to a much follow run rate in 2027. So there's so much going on and with the buildup, it's really difficult to give you. I just feel at this point, we've managed us way through fairly well with really healthy incrementals. And I mean anything above -- I mean, if our EBITDA is at 29% anything above that is incremental beneficial to the company.

當然，我們還有 GTF 的優勢，目前它也是以相當小的批量生產的。但隨著進入 2026 年，這一數字將大幅增長，到 2027 年，這一數字將達到更高的運行率。所以事情太多了，而且之前一直在醞釀，真的很難一一告訴你。我覺得目前為止，我們已經穩定地推進，做得相當不錯。我的意思是，任何高於這個數值的部分——我的意思是，如果我們的 EBITDA 為 29%，任何高於這個數值的部分都會為公司帶來額外的好處。

So I'm feeling as though we're going to be above that for next year. But without -- I'm not willing to comment yet about whether we're going to be on par with our incrementals this year or not or whether inevitably, there has to be some flattening of that. That it's just -- I don't -- the wait till February to comment about that.

所以我感覺我們明年應該會超過這個數字。但是，目前我還不願評論我們今年能否達到預期的增量目標，或者是否不可避免地會出現成長放緩的情況。只是——我並不——要等到二月才能對此發表評論。

Scott Deutsche, Deutsche Bank.

斯科特‧德意志銀行，德意志銀行。

John, I think you said CapEx will remain at high levels into 2026 as well as into 2027. So just to put a finer point on that, should we be thinking about flattish CapEx in those years relative to 2025 work at that increase? And then does the mix of that CapEx shift more toward IGT and midsized turbines or is the majority of it still focused on aerospace?

約翰，我記得你說過資本支出將在 2026 年和 2027 年保持高水準。為了更清楚地說明這一點，我們是否應該考慮這些年份的資本支出相對於 2025 年的成長保持穩定？那麼，這些資本支出是否更多地轉向燃氣渦輪機和中型渦輪機，還是大部分仍然集中在航空航太領域？

In terms of absolute numbers, the majority is absolute dollars will still be higher for aerospace. But I think there'll be a percentage as a mix of a total. I think that the investments we're making in both the large and midsized turbines possibly be a higher relative percentage than it is this year.

從絕對數量來看，航空航太領域的絕對金額仍然會更高。但我認為最終會佔總數的一定比例。我認為，我們今年在大中型渦輪機上的投資比例可能會比今年更高。

I think the one question I forgot to add on the way through the Q&A section as what do the economics look like for these turbines? And essentially, it's the same as for Aero. So if you were to pick up both our absolute and our incrementals for either the IGT part of our business, both large and midsize or aero and they're pretty much the same.

我覺得我在問答環節忘記補充一個問題，那就是這些渦輪機的經濟效益如何？本質上，它和 Aero 的情況一樣。所以，如果你把我們業務中 IGT 部分的絕對值和增量值都拿出來，無論是大型和中型還是航空發動機，它們都幾乎是相同的。

So it doesn't really matter what they say, the color of CapEx, which segment goes into because the most very good. And for me, it's more the fact that we have the opportunities. And it is just as I look forward, we, I'll say, more or less framed out, well, I think we're going to do 2026. But every time we sort of examine or have new conversations with our customers, in fact, I was in Europe for the first part of this week. And I think if I got back last night to be able to do our earnings call is that, again, is only a conversation about improvement in opportunities which are there before us.

所以他們說什麼、資本支出是什麼顏色、進入哪個領域等等，其實都不重要，因為最重要的是非常好。對我來說，更重要的是我們擁有這些機會。展望未來，我們可以說，我們大致已經制定了計劃，嗯，我認為我們將在 2026 年實現目標。但每次我們與客戶進行某種形式的審查或新的對話時，事實上，本週前半段我都在歐洲。我認為，如果我昨晚能回來參加我們的財報電話會議，那也只是在討論我們面前存在的改進機會。

And so what causes me to believe that 2027 is also going to be significant number for CapEx. And so I see this year as we've moved up from what we thought was going to be I don't know, 350 to 370 or something like that, maybe a bit lower on that side we now probably going to burst 400.

因此，是什麼讓我相信 2027 年對資本支出來說也將是重要的年份？所以我覺得今年我們已經從我們預想的350到370左右，也許還會低一點，現在我們可能會突破400。

But as you see in 400 but with actually improving cash flow is that I think the greatest pleasure that I'm going to have next year is being able to deploy that amount of capital or more. And we don't deploy capital just because it's fun to do. It's hard work, but it's going to be backed by clear eye thinking about customer utilization, customer commitment and economic return.

但正如你在 400 中看到的那樣，隨著現金流的改善，我認為明年我最大的樂趣就是能夠部署這筆或更多的資金。我們不會因為好玩就投入資金。這很辛苦，但我們會以清晰的眼光思考客戶利用率、客戶忠誠度和經濟回報來支撐這項工作。

And I think you know we have pretty high hurdle rates for that to deploy that fresh capital. So my view is it's a good thing if we can spend 2025 level in 2026 and more in 2027 are more than that's going to be a good thing. And we just see increasing opportunities to build out the business.

我想你也知道，我們部署這筆新資金的門檻相當高。所以我的看法是，如果我們能在 2026 年達到 2025 年的水平，那當然是件好事，如果 2027 年能達到更高水平，那就更好了。我們看到越來越多的機會來拓展業務。

Thank you, not sure that there is no further questions or --

謝謝，不確定是否還有其他問題或疑問。--

Drew, you're on the line?

德魯，是你接電話嗎？

PT I think we should close given the fact less than a minute to get, we can't even ask a question.

PT 我覺得我們應該關門了，因為時間不到一分鐘，我們甚至沒時間提問。

Mike, did you have a question, Mr. Ciarmoli ?

麥克，你有什麼問題嗎，恰爾莫利先生？？

Yes. John, not to belabor the point, and I'll try and be quick here with the call closing out. But back to these incrementals I mean you're clearly benefiting from spares demand, a combination of legacy utilization, combination of durability issues I mean, are you overearning on the Aerospace spares now? And is that driving the strong incrementals, does that normalize at some point? -- as maybe some of these light work scopes or different kind of work scopes trend back to normal?

是的。約翰，我不想贅述，我會盡快結束通話。但回到這些增量，我的意思是，你顯然從備件需求中受益，這是傳統利用率和耐久性問題共同作用的結果，我的意思是，你現在在航空航天備件上是否賺得盆滿缽滿？而這種強勁的成長是否正是由這些因素所驅動的？這種情況會在某個時候趨於正常嗎？ ——例如，隨著一些輕鬆的工作範圍或不同類型的工作範圍逐漸恢復正常？

Well, first of all, in the year, in the short term, pricing into the spares part and an OE part are exactly the same over a long-term basis that are differentiated because of, let's say, parts going to pass model. So no, there's no case of the over-earning in the immediacy.

首先，在短期內，備件和原廠件的價格完全相同；從長遠來看，價格差異在於，例如，備件是否符合標準。所以，目前不存在過度獲利的情況。

If you go back to previous calls, I have said that what we see is our spares business in total increasing every year for the next five years, didn't really want to go beyond five. We may discuss whether it’s going to be the same angle increase, but there's no case that I can see where spares don't increase every year through the end of the decade. So that's pretty positive.

回顧之前的電話會議，我曾說過，我們預計未來五年內，我們的備件業務總量將逐年增長，我並不想超過五年。我們可以討論角度增加的幅度是否相同，但就我目前所見，沒有任何跡象表明備件數量不會在十年結束前逐年增加。所以這算是相當正面的訊號。

Thanks, Mike. So it's 11:01. So Drew close the call.

謝謝你，麥克。現在是11點01分。於是德魯結束了通話。

Yes, sir. This concludes our question-and-answer session and the Howmet Aerospace third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

是的，先生。我們的問答環節和豪邁航空航太公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。