Hubbell Inc (HUBB) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Hubbell Incorporated First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Hubbell Incorporated 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Dan Innamorato, you may begin.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人 Dan Innamorato，您可以開始了。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release announcing our results for the first quarter of 2025. The press release and slides are posted to the Investors section of our website at www.hubbell.com. I'm joined today by our Chairman, President and CEO, Gerben Bakker; and our Executive Vice President and CFO, Bill Sperry.

謝謝，接線生。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了 2025 年第一季的業績。新聞稿和幻燈片發佈於我們網站 www.hubbell.com 的投資者部分。今天與我一同出席的還有我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Gerben Bakker；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長比爾‧斯佩里 (Bill Sperry)。

Please note our comments this morning may include statements related to the expected future results of our company. These are forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Please note that discussion of forward-looking statements and our press release and consider to incorporate by reference to this call. Additional comments may also include non-GAAP financial measures. Those measures are reconciled to comparable GAAP measures, which are included in the press release and slides.

請注意，我們今天早上的評論可能包括與我們公司預期未來業績相關的聲明。這些是 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案所定義的前瞻性陳述。請注意前瞻性陳述和我們的新聞稿的討論，並考慮透過引用納入本次電話會議。其他評論可能還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些指標與新聞稿和幻燈片中包含的可比較 GAAP 指標相一致。

Now let me turn the call over to Gerben.

現在讓我把電話轉給 Gerben。

Great. Thanks, Dan. Good morning. Thank you for joining us to discuss Hubbell's first quarter 2025 results. Our results in the quarter were driven by continued strong operating performance in our Electrical Solutions segment and a return to organic growth in grid infrastructure, offset by anticipated softness in grid automation and the impact of increased cost inflation from higher raw material prices and tariffs.

偉大的。謝謝，丹。早安.感謝您加入我們討論 Hubbell 2025 年第一季的業績。本季業績的推動力來自於電氣解決方案部門持續強勁的營運業績以及電網基礎設施恢復有機成長，但被電網自動化預期的疲軟以及原物料價格和關稅上漲導致的成本通膨上升的影響所抵消。

In Electrical Solutions, we delivered mid-single-digit organic growth with continued adjusted operating margin expansion and strong core adjusted operating profit growth. Our segment unification efforts and our strategy to compete collectively are driving outgrowth in key vertical markets, most notably evidenced by strong data center growth in first quarter.

在電氣解決方案方面，我們實現了中等個位數的有機成長，調整後營業利潤率持續擴大，核心調整後營業利潤強勁成長。我們的分部統一努力和集體競爭策略正在推動主要垂直市場的成長，最明顯的是第一季資料中心的強勁成長。

From an operational standpoint, we continue to simplify our business to drive productivity and operating efficiencies, which we are confident will drive long-term margin expansion. In Utility Solutions, while grid automation sales were down on challenging prior year comparisons as anticipated, our grid infrastructure business returned to organic growth in the quarter. Transmission and substation markets remain strong as utility customers invest to interconnect new sources of low (inaudible) generation on the grid.

從營運的角度來看，我們繼續簡化業務以提高生產力和營運效率，我們相信這將推動長期利潤率的成長。在公用事業解決方案方面，雖然電網自動化銷售額如預期般較上年同期有所下降，但我們的電網基礎設施業務在本季度恢復了有機成長。隨著公用事業客戶投資將新的低（聽不清楚）發電源連接到電網，輸電和變電站市場仍保持強勁。

We delivered another quarter of double-digit growth across these markets in the quarter as our leading positions and premium brands position us well to capitalize on a growing funnel of project opportunities. In distribution markets, we are encouraged by recent order trends and are confident that we are emerging from the recent period of customer inventory normalization.

由於我們的領先地位和優質品牌使我們能夠充分利用不斷增長的專案機會，我們在本季度在這些市場再次實現了兩位數的成長。在分銷市場，我們對最近的訂單趨勢感到鼓舞，並相信我們正在擺脫近期客戶庫存正常化的局面。

Before I turn it over to Bill to discuss the results and our outlook in more detail, I'd like to provide some opening comments on how we are positioning Hubbell to mitigate recent cost inflation and near-term macroeconomic uncertainty. Hubbell is a U.S.-centric manufacturing company with more than 90% of our sales in the U.S. and a largely U.S. based manufacturing footprint. Our international sales are served primarily on a local-for-local basis. While recent raw materials, inflation and tariffs implemented in February and March drove a headwind in the first quarter, we have already implemented action to offset those impacts within 2025, and we are taking the actions necessary to offset the more recent impact of reciprocal tariffs.

在我將討論結果和我們的展望交給比爾之前，我想先就我們如何定位 Hubbell 以緩解近期的成本通膨和近期宏觀經濟不確定性發表一些開場評論。Hubbell 是一家以美國為中心的製造公司，其 90% 以上的銷售額來自美國，製造業務主要集中在美國。我們的國際銷售主要以在地化為基礎。雖然近期原材料、通貨膨脹以及 2 月和 3 月實施的關稅給第一季帶來了阻力，但我們已經採取行動在 2025 年內抵消這些影響，我們正在採取必要行動來抵消近期互惠關稅的影響。

Cost inflation cycles are not new to Hubbell, we have successfully dealt with them before, and we have a playbook in place with several levers at our disposal to drive continued profitable growth under a range of scenarios. From a market standpoint, while the macroeconomic environment has become more dynamic over the last several months, we see no net change to our prior near-term and long-term views. We believe the current environment warrants caution and continued proactive cost management with strong recent order trends and favorable end markets can support our forward growth expectations. Additionally, our markets are not only bolstered by near and long-term growth megatrends, but it has also proven to be more resilient during periods of economic uncertainty. We are maintaining our full year 2025 outlook this morning and remain confident in our ability to achieve our financial and strategic commitments.

成本通膨週期對 Hubbell 來說並不陌生，我們之前已經成功應對過這些問題，並且我們已經制定了一套方案，可以使用多種槓桿來推動各種情況下的持續盈利增長。從市場角度來看，儘管宏觀經濟環境在過去幾個月變得更加活躍，但我們認為我們先前的短期和長期觀點並沒有淨變化。我們認為，目前的環境需要謹慎，持續主動的成本管理，加上近期強勁的訂單趨勢和有利的終端市場，可以支持我們未來的成長預期。此外，我們的市場不僅受到近期和長期成長大趨勢的支撐，而且事實證明，在經濟不確定時期它也更具彈性。今天上午，我們維持 2025 年全年展望不變，並對我們實現財務和策略承諾的能力充滿信心。

With that, let me turn it over to Bill.

說完這些，讓我把麥克風交給比爾。

Thanks very much, Gerben. Good morning, everybody. appreciate you taking time to be with us. We're quite aware. It's a busy morning. I'm going to start my comments on Page 4, and we'll be using the slides that you hopefully found. So the first quarter results for Hubbell were strong performance from the Electrical segment, strong performance from great infrastructure some headwinds from grid automation as they faced a very difficult prior year comparison. And I would say that first quarter performance sets itself up now for normal ramped-up seasonality and for us to deliver and support the full year target and expectations that we have.

非常感謝，Gerben。大家早安。感謝您抽出時間與我們同在。我們非常清楚。這是一個忙碌的早晨。我將從第 4 頁開始發表評論，我們將使用您希望找到的幻燈片。因此，Hubbell 在第一季的業績表現強勁，電氣部門表現強勁，基礎設施建設表現強勁，但電網自動化方面也存在一些阻力，因為與去年同期相比，他們面臨著非常困難的挑戰。我想說的是，第一季的業績已經為正常的季節性成長做好了準備，也為我們實現和支持全年目標和預期做好了準備。

On the cost side, we had some incremental headwinds from higher raw material prices and tariffs. We're going to talk about tariffs in more robustly in a little bit. We're lumping in raw material inflation just because we think about it as what we need to offset with price and productivity. And I think we're going to provide slightly unique challenge for you all in our LIFO-based income statement. We are recognizing these cost increases as they happen.

在成本方面，原物料價格和關稅上漲給我們帶來了一些阻力。我們稍後會更深入地討論關稅問題。我們將原物料通膨納入考慮，只是因為我們認為需要用價格和生產力來抵銷它。我認為我們將在基於後進先出的損益表中為大家提供稍微獨特的挑戰。我們意識到這些成本正在增加。

The FIFO reporters will be a quarter or so down the road before they start recognizing those costs. So we're going to really be showing you a little bit of that gap but we've got, as Gerben highlighted actions to offset those and able to hold on to our initial targets.

FIFO 報告器將需要大約一個季度的時間才能開始確認這些成本。因此，我們實際上會向您展示一點差距，但正如 Gerben 所強調的那樣，我們已經採取行動來彌補這些差距，並能夠堅持我們最初的目標。

So on Page 4 on the left, when you see sales of $1.365 billion. The decrease largely driven by the divestiture of residential lighting quite flat, otherwise, where the growth we experienced in the Electrical segment as well as in grid infrastructure was essentially offset by the decline in grid automation as they faced a tougher compare. We like to look at the sales sequentially as well, not just year-over-year and up 2% with strong orders, and we'll talk more about that as we look forward to the balance of the year. But really those -- the order book is supporting a strong seasonal ramp up.

在左側第 4 頁，您可以看到銷售額為 13.65 億美元。這一下降主要是由於住宅照明業務的剝離相當平緩，否則，我們在電力部門以及電網基礎設施方面所經歷的增長基本上被電網自動化的下降所抵消，因為它們面臨著更嚴峻的競爭。我們也喜歡按順序查看銷售情況，而不僅僅是同比增長 2% 且訂單強勁，我們將在展望今年的平衡時更多地談論這一點。但實際上，訂單量正在支撐強勁的季節性成長。

The second column, you see operating profit and you see the OP down to $264 million, margins down 40 basis points. That includes 1 point of positive price and then some headwind from the material costs creating about a $10 million drag of price and productivity against material inflation, tariffs and other inflation. Absent these $10 million drag, you would have seen margins expand nicely. And I make that comment just because we're going to be offsetting that drag in the second half of the year. So the durable margins underlying that would have been up, and we think that's a good sign.

第二列，您看到營業利潤，營業利潤下降至 2.64 億美元，利潤率下降 40 個基點。其中包括 1 個點的正價格，然後是材料成本的一些阻力，造成約 1000 萬美元的價格和生產力拖累材料通膨、關稅和其他通膨。如果沒有這 1000 萬美元的拖累，你會看到利潤率大幅擴大。我之所以發表這樣的評論，只是因為我們將在下半年抵消這種拖累。因此，潛在的耐用利潤率將會上升，我們認為這是一個好兆頭。

I'm going to now unpack performance by segment. And starting on Page 5, we'll start with Utility Solutions. You see the sales of $857 million down 4% from prior year. That's comprised of low single-digit growth on the infrastructure side and 15% contraction on grid automation. The infrastructure side accounts for about three-quarters of the segment and the markets are continuing in good shape in the transmission and substation side, double-digit growth by us.

我現在要按部分來分析一下效能。從第 5 頁開始，我們將開始介紹實用解決方案。您會看到銷售額為 8.57 億美元，比前一年下降了 4%。其中包括基礎設施方面的低個位數成長和電網自動化方面的 15% 收縮。基礎設施方面約佔該領域的四分之三，輸電和變電站方面的市場持續保持良好狀態，實現了兩位數的成長。

We feel very good about our strong positioning and differentiated solutions in fast-growing market here. That's being driven by grid modernization and electrification trends. And that's got nice momentum and has been growing strongly, expected to continue. Distribution was down in the quarter. But again, importantly, sales and orders up sequentially.

我們對自己在快速成長的市場中強大的定位和差異化解決方案感到非常滿意。這是由電網現代化和電氣化趨勢所推動的。而且這勢頭良好，一直強勁成長，預計還會持續下去。本季分銷量下降。但同樣重要的是，銷售額和訂單連續上升。

As Gerben had mentioned, the customer and channel inventory normalization has really been a nagging headwind in 2024 for the grid infrastructure business unit. Particularly for distribution products and telecom portion of enclosures. We would say that by the sequential and orders, we would say that normalization period by the end of the quarter here, we've reached it, and the period of destocking is now behind us. We're happy to say. So we're looking forward to seeing kind of a book and build demand. The orders across all of grid infrastructure up double digits and up sequentially, and that's really a broad-based trend where we're seeing that in all three areas of transmission, substation, distribution and telecom.

正如 Gerben 所提到的，客戶和通路庫存正常化對於電網基礎設施業務部門來說確實是 2024 年的一個棘手阻力。特別適用於分銷產品和電信部分的外殼。我們可以這麼說，根據連續的訂單，到本季末，我們已經達到了正常化時期，去庫存時期已經過去了。我們很高興地說。因此，我們期待看到這樣的書籍並建立需求。所有電網基礎設施的訂單都環比增長了兩位數，這是一個廣泛的趨勢，我們在輸電、變電站、配電和電信三個領域都看到了這種趨勢。

On the grid automation side, you see that business being down teens and that mid-teens that compares to a prior year comp of up 30%. So certainly a tough compare. The sales are flattening sequentially from the fourth quarter, and we're seeing the large project roll-offs being backfilled by smaller projects and MRO activity. So I think we see grid automation now in kind of a steadier environment rather than being consistent downdraft. We think it's nice, steady based on these smaller projects and MRO.

在電網自動化方面，您會發現業務量下降了十幾歲和十幾歲，而去年同期則增長了 30%。因此這確實是一個艱難的比較。從第四季開始，銷售額持續趨於平穩，我們看到大型專案的完成正被小型專案和 MRO 活動所填補。因此我認為我們現在看到的電網自動化是一種更穩定的環境，而不是持續的下沉氣流。我們認為，基於這些較小的專案和 MRO，這是很好且穩定的。

The margins in utility, you see $180 million of operating profit, a decline of 80 basis points of margin, this is really where you see a lot of the price cost productivity headwind that we described. Our Utility segment has a higher mix of LIFO units than does our Electrical segment. And so we're seeing those costs hitting the P&L sooner here in the utility, which is dragging those margins down just a little bit.

公用事業的利潤率，你會看到 1.8 億美元的營業利潤，利潤率下降了 80 個基點，這就是我們所描述的價格成本生產力逆風的真正原因。我們的公用事業部門的後進先出單位組合比電力部門更高。因此，我們看到這些成本更快影響了公用事業的損益表，這會稍微拉低利潤率。

Talking about Electrical on Page 6. Another strong quarter for the Electrical segment. You see mid-single-digit growth when we net out the M&A impact of the divestiture of residential lighting. We have finally now lapped that so we won't have to continue to torture you by kind of manually pulling that out to make same-store sales comparisons for you. Strong margin expansion of 5% growth, 70 basis point improvement in margin. Likewise, if you pulled the lighting results out of the prior year to make it comparable, you'd see something closer to double-digit growth. So a strong quarter for the segment.

第 6 頁討論電氣。電氣部門又迎來了強勁的一個季度。當我們扣除住宅照明業務剝離對併購的影響時，你會看到中等個位數的成長。我們現在終於解決了這個問題，所以我們不必繼續透過手動將其拉出來為您進行同店銷售額比較來折磨您。利潤率強勁擴張，成長 5%，利潤率提高 70 個基點。同樣，如果你將前一年的照明業績拿出來進行比較，你會看到接近兩位數的成長。因此，本季該部門表現強勁。

If we look at the 5% sales growth, data centers was our largest contributor. We had double-digit growth in the balance of systems which are products like our connectors and grounding product, wiring devices and the like. Good momentum in that space, healthy growth. And our PCX business strong growth there as well. So big contribution from data centers to the segment.

如果我們看一下 5% 的銷售成長，資料中心是我們最大的貢獻者。我們的系統平衡產品（例如連接器和接地產品、接線設備等）實現了兩位數的成長。該領域勢頭良好，增長健康。我們的 PCX 業務在那裡也實現了強勁成長。數據中心對該領域的貢獻巨大。

Ex data center results are slightly more mixed, where on the light industrial side, which is where our [Birdy] brand is. We saw strong growth. We're benefiting there from mega projects, think of large industrial factories like chip plants as well as a general trend of industrial reshoring, helping in light industrial. On the heavy side, a little bit more mixed performance where oil and gas was a good contributor on the non-res side, we saw some softness, which is consistent with the past few quarters.

資料中心以外的結果稍微複雜一些，其中屬於輕工業領域，也就是我們的 [Birdy] 品牌所在領域。我們看到了強勁的成長。我們從大型專案中受益，例如晶片廠等大型工業工廠以及工業回流的整體趨勢，這有助於輕工業的發展。在重型產品方面，表現略有好壞參半，其中石油和天然氣在非住宅方面做出了良好貢獻，我們看到了一些疲軟，這與過去幾個季度一致。

We're pleased that we got good results from a vertical market strategy. That led to some contributions from new product development as well as some customer conversions as our newly aligned sales force is proving to be effective in the marketplace.

我們很高興垂直市場策略取得了良好的成果。這帶來了一些新產品開發的貢獻以及一些客戶轉換，因為我們新調整的銷售團隊在市場上被證明是有效的。

On the OP side, you see 70 basis points of margin expansion, 5% growth to $84 million of OP. And that's driven really by the volume growth, efficiency gains from our compete collectively initiatives and some price cost productivity headwinds, little bit less impactful the utility as they have a higher FIFO mix, but nonetheless, a drag from that in the Electrical segment.

在營業利潤方面，利潤率擴大了 70 個基點，營業利潤成長了 5%，達到 8,400 萬美元。這實際上是由產量成長、我們集體競爭舉措帶來的效率提升以及一些價格成本生產力阻力所推動的，對公用事業的影響較小，因為它們具有更高的先進先出組合，但儘管如此，這對電氣部門還是造成了拖累。

We thought it would be helpful on Page 7 to break down the tariff exposure and to be clear that we're including in the tariff exposure, the inflationary pressure on raw materials that those tariffs are influenced even if they're not direct tariffs. And we're hoping that Page 7 helps shine the light here. So you see, as Gerben had mentioned, a U.S.-centric company, but with global supply chain, Mexico being about mid-teens of mix, China mid-single digits and the rest of the world less than five. We've find it most useful to separate the effects into two different buckets.

我們認為，在第 7 頁分解關稅風險並明確指出我們將關稅風險納入的話會很有幫助，即使這些關稅不是直接關稅，原材料的通膨壓力也會受到影響。我們希望第 7 頁能幫助我們闡明這一點。所以你看，正如 Gerben 所提到的，這是一家以美國為中心的公司，但擁有全球供應鏈，墨西哥的混合比約為 15%，中國為個位數中段，世界其他地區則不到 5%。我們發現將效果分成兩個不同的部分是最有用的。

And the first category on the left is really the effects in the first quarter from tariffs that were implemented in February and March, but also you see we're including higher raw material costs. So even if we're not paying tariff on student on aluminum, those commodities have experienced inflation. And the way we calculate this $135 million impact on 2025 from a cost perspective, about, half of that these just these raw material costs and the balance being tariffs.

左邊的第一類實際上是 2 月和 3 月實施的關稅對第一季的影響，但您還會看到，我們還將原材料成本的上漲納入其中。因此，即使我們不支付鋁關稅，這些商品也經歷了通貨膨脹。從成本角度來看，我們計算出這 1.35 億美元對 2025 年的影響，其中約一半是原物料成本，其餘則是關稅。

And we've got a set of initiatives that Gerben gave you a little insight to leading with price. We've been in communications with our customers with letters. We have enacted those price increases. They're effective in mid-April, and we've now been taking orders at those new prices and the stick rate gives us confidence on this call, even though it's a little early to let you know that we will neutralize that $135 million impact within calendar year 2025.

我們制定了一系列舉措，Gerben 向您介紹了一些以價格為主導的見解。我們一直透過信件與客戶保持溝通。我們已經實施了這些價格上漲。這些措施將於 4 月中旬生效，我們現在一直在按照這些新價格接受訂單，而這一價格讓我們對這通通話充滿信心，儘管現在告訴你們我們將在 2025 日曆年內抵消這 1.35 億美元的影響還為時過早。

The second column is the reciprocal tariffs that were enacted in April. We too, will neutralize these effects using price and productivity levers. And those mitigation actions are underway. We've been in contact with our customers. Those price increases are not yet fully implemented. They're expected to go in later this month.

第二欄是四月頒布的互惠關稅。我們也將利用價格和生產力槓桿來抵消這些影響。這些緩解措施正在進行中。我們已與客戶取得聯繫。這些價格上漲尚未完全實施。預計他們將於本月晚些時候進入。

And so we don't know about stick rates as well. And so while we're confident we'll offset and neutralize these -- it's not fully clear yet that, that will happen within calendar year '25, given the LIFO lag and the fact that we'll be recognizing these costs immediately. So to see when we get to the outlook page, we've given you a little bit of a sensitivity. We're targeting to get all of this offset and neutralized within calendar year. But it's possible it takes until the first quarter of next year, and we'll certainly keep you updated as those impacts become a little more clear.

因此，我們也不知道堅持率的情況。因此，雖然我們有信心能夠抵消和消除這些成本，但考慮到後進先出法的滯後以及我們將立即確認這些成本的事實，目前尚不完全清楚這是否會在 25 日曆年內發生。因此，當我們進入展望頁面時，我們會給你一點敏感度。我們的目標是在一年內實現所有這些抵消和中和。但這可能要到明年第一季才能實現，一旦這些影響變得更加清晰，我們一定會及時向您通報。

So our outlook is on Page 8 and you see that we are maintaining our 2025 adjusted EPS outlook range. And that involves organic growth of 6% to 8%. We believe that the markets are intact. And so about half of that or 3% to 4%, we think is going to come from volume and the balance of 3% to 4% will be coming from price. And so that price -- those price actions, again, confident that we'll be offsetting that first phase of the first quarter tariffs and inflation on materials.

我們的展望在第 8 頁，您可以看到我們維持 2025 年調整後的 EPS 展望範圍。這涉及 6% 至 8% 的有機增長。我們相信市場是完好的。因此，我們認為其中約一半或 3% 到 4% 將來自交易量，其餘 3% 到 4% 將來自價格。因此，這些價格行動再次表明，我們相信我們將抵消第一季第一階段的關稅和材料通膨。

And you can see that illustrated by the red and green bars offsetting each other, getting back to the original range. The second set of reciprocals. We're targeting neutral, but we wanted to highlight a $0.50 sensitivity just in case the LIFO accounting recognizes a little more cost before the price can hit, and we'll be able to update you certainly next quarter on how that's going.

您可以看到紅色和綠色條相互抵消，回到原始範圍。第二組倒數。我們的目標是中性，但我們希望強調 0.50 美元的敏感度，以防後進先出會計在價格達到之前確認更多的成本，我們肯定會在下個季度向您通報進展情況。

So the guidance is intact. Free cash flow, you saw on the opening page, a little bit down quarter-over-quarter, but certainly in line to hit our target of 90% or greater of net income on the free cash flow. You'll see on the right some comments on modeling considerations that we can talk about as much of that in Q&A as you want. But essentially, we're anticipating a ramp, and that's going to allow us to get some growth -- good growth in the second quarter.

因此指導是完整的。您可以在首頁看到，自由現金流與上一季相比略有下降，但肯定符合我們的目標，即自由現金流佔淨收入的 90% 或更高。您會在右側看到一些關於建模考慮的評論，我們可以在問答中盡可能多地討論這些評論。但本質上，我們預計會出現成長，這將使我們在第二季度實現一些成長——良好的成長。

We wanted to end -- that's obviously, guidance is around $25 million. We wanted to end on Page 9 with some comments that maybe extend beyond '25 into '26 and beyond and I wanted to talk about the balance sheet, which we think is in great shape, it's very poised to support an active level of investment as well as returns to shareholders. You can see in the graph, we're depicting for the 3-year period of '25 to '27 about $3.5 billion of operating cash flow, burdened that with CapEx gets to about $3 billion of free cash flow with dividends and anti-dilutive share repurchases, as we get to about $2 billion of cash generation, that excludes and ignores the borrowing capacity inherent in the balance sheet, which would more than double that number.

我們希望結束——顯然，指導價約為 2500 萬美元。我們想在第 9 頁結束時發表一些可能延續到 25 年、26 年及以後的評論，我想談談資產負債表，我們認為資產負債表狀況良好，非常適合支持積極的投資水平以及股東回報。您可以在圖表中看到，我們描繪了 25 年至 27 年 3 年期間約 35 億美元的經營現金流，加上資本支出，透過股息和反稀釋性股票回購，可獲得約 30 億美元的自由現金流，因為我們獲得約 20 億美元的現金產生，這將使數字排除並忽略了資產負債表中固有的借貸能力增加一倍以上。

And our bias is to deploy that into acquisitions. We think acquisitions give us the best way to improve the depth and breadth of our product positioning continue to deepen our importance to our customers, add critical technologies as well as provide very attractive rates of return on capital.

我們的傾向是將其部署到收購中。我們認為收購為我們提供了提高產品定位深度和廣度的最佳方式，繼續加深我們對客戶的重要性，增加關鍵技術並提供非常有吸引力的資本回報率。

But we also have flexibility on the share repurchase side. And just to remind everybody, our authorization on that side had been increased earlier this year, order of magnitude of $600 million of availability. We did buy $125 million worth of shares in Q1. We believe at attractive valuations and certainly the share repurchase lever is available to us as you can see the balance sheet and capital deployment here.

但我們在股票回購方面也具有彈性。需要提醒大家的是，我們在這方面的授權已經在今年稍早增加了，可用金額達到了 6 億美元。我們確實在第一季購買了價值 1.25 億美元的股票。我們相信估值具有吸引力，我們當然可以利用股票回購槓桿，正如您在這裡的資產負債表和資本配置中看到的那樣。

I wanted Gerben, comment on the left-hand side, certainly the T&D core business is critical both to us achieving our '25 guide, but also to success beyond that. So as you comment on that, please.

我希望 Gerben 對左側進行評論，毫無疑問，T&D 核心業務對於我們實現 25 年目標以及超越這一目標的成功至關重要。請對此發表評論。

Great. Thanks, Bill. And before we turn the call over to Q&A, let me provide some more context on T&D trends as we are beginning to see evidence of acceleration in areas of the portfolio, which face customer inventory normalization throughout 2024. Grid infrastructure orders were up double digits year-over-year in the first quarter and up solidly versus the fourth quarter. And order trends were strong across each of the end markets. More importantly, underlying end market dynamics are strong and forward outlook for major customers have recently increased.

偉大的。謝謝，比爾。在我們將電話轉入問答環節之前，請允許我提供一些有關 T&D 趨勢的更多背景信息，因為我們開始看到投資組合中各個領域加速發展的證據，這些領域將在 2024 年面臨客戶庫存正常化。第一季電網基礎設施訂單年增兩位數，季比第四季也穩定成長。每個終端市場的訂單趨勢都很強勁。更重要的是，潛在的終端市場動態強勁，主要客戶的前景近期有所增加。

On average, over the past six months, multiyear capital plans from a representative group of our top investor-owned utility customers have revised upwards by approximately 10% from prior multiyear plans. As we have previously communicated, we believe T&D markets are at the early stages of a long-term investment cycle, underpinned by secular trends in grid modernization and electrification. We are confident that we are emerging from the recent period of customer inventory normalization with leading positions, solutions and service levels that will enable Hubbell to effectively capitalize on this visible long-term opportunity.

平均而言，在過去六個月中，我們頂級投資者擁有的公用事業客戶代表群體的多年期資本計劃比之前的多年期計劃上調了約 10%。正如我們之前所傳達的，我們認為輸配電市場正處於長期投資週期的早期階段，並受到電網現代化和電氣化的長期趨勢的支持。我們相信，我們正從近期的客戶庫存正常化階段中脫穎而出，擁有領先的地位、解決方案和服務水平，這將使 Hubbell 能夠有效地利用這一可見的長期機會。

And to conclude this morning's prepared remarks and turning my comments back to Olaf Hubbell, we are confident in our ability to execute through near-term uncertainties and deliver on our financial commitments in 2025. We are focused as a management team to drive the needed actions to navigate this dynamic environment, and we view it as our obligation to manage the short term. We have a demonstrated track record over the last several years of executing effectively through a wide range of macroeconomic and inflationary environments, and we will continue to do so moving forward. But we are also not losing sight of the long-term opportunities ahead of us, and we are increasingly confident that our utility and electrical customers will do significantly more business with Hubbell over the next several years. This confidence is underpinned by our unique leading positions in markets supported by visible megatrends as well as recent customer insights and order trends.

最後，在今天早上的準備好的演講的最後，我將我的評論轉交給 Olaf Hubbell，我們有信心克服近期的不確定性，並在 2025 年兌現我們的財務承諾。作為管理團隊，我們專注於推動必要的行動來應對這個動態環境，並將管理短期事務視為我們的義務。過去幾年來，我們在各種宏觀經濟和通膨環境下都取得了有效執行的良好業績，我們將繼續這樣做。但我們也沒有忽略眼前的長期機遇，我們越來越有信心，未來幾年我們的公用事業和電力客戶將與 Hubbell 開展更多的業務。這種信心源於我們在市場中獨特的領先地位，這得益於明顯的大趨勢以及最近的客戶洞察和訂單趨勢。

We anticipate that our attractive long-term growth outlook, combined with structural opportunities in our operating model and capital deployment levels will continue to drive consistent shareholder value creation.

我們預計，我們具有吸引力的長期成長前景，加上我們的營運模式和資本配置水準的結構性機會，將繼續推動持續的股東價值創造。

With that, let me turn the call over to Q&A.

說完這些，讓我將電話轉入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Your line is open.

（操作員指令）。我們的第一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeffrey Sprague。您的線路已開通。

Maybe just to start on guidance, if we could. Coincidentally, your guide range is $0.50 right, and you're talking about this $0.50 kind of sensitivity. Just to be totally crystal clear, you're suggesting a negative outcome here relative to your plan is a year that looks like [$16.85 to $17.35]. $0.50 off the top and bottom.

如果可以的話，也許只是開始提供指導。巧合的是，您的指導範圍是 0.50 美元，而您正在談論的是這種 0.50 美元的敏感度。為了完全清楚地說明，您建議的相對於您的計劃的負面結果是一年內看起來像 [16.85 美元到 17.35 美元]。頂部和底部均減 0.50 美元。

Yes, I think that's correct, Jeff.

是的，我認為是正確的，傑夫。

Okay. And then just on Q2, Bill, it'd be really great if you could give us some additional help here. Obviously, you don't guide quarters. Maybe this is the exception to the rule this quarter with all this LIFO hit likely to be coming through, right, and your price actions delaying. So you told us the top line will be strong a seasonal lift. But just help us think about really what's going to happen with the margins and sort of the cost mitigation in the quarter.

好的。然後就第二問題而言，比爾，如果你能在這裡給我們一些額外的幫助那就太好了。顯然，你不指導宿舍。也許這是本季的例外，因為所有後進先出法的衝擊都可能出現，對吧，而且您的價格行動也會延遲。所以您告訴我們，營業額將因季節性因素而強勁成長。但請幫助我們真正思考本季的利潤率和成本降低情況將會發生什麼變化。

Yes. So without giving guidance, I do think we can give you some insights that we have, Jeff, that hopefully would be helpful. So on the top line, a typical seasonal sequential would be in the high single digits. And certainly, we'll have sites being pulled in there. And so I think, thinking of getting sales growth year-over-year in that mid-single-digit range is certainly a valid expectation.

是的。因此，在不提供指導的情況下，我確實認為我們可以為您提供一些我們所掌握的見解，傑夫，希望這些見解會有所幫助。因此，從整體來看，典型的季節性連續成長將處於高個位數。當然，我們會將網站拉到那裡。因此我認為，實現銷售額同比增長在中等個位數範圍內肯定是一個合理的預期。

I think to your point on the LIFO lag, we're anticipating an order of magnitude of $20-ish million. Again, that's going into recovery bucket in the second half. But the timing of that, we would have $10 million of that in the first quarter and $20 million in the second, Jeff. So I think those are the kind of primary drivers of the quarter.

我認為，對於您提到的後進先出法滯後問題，我們預計其數量級將達到 2000 萬美元左右。再次，這將進入下半場的恢復階段。但就時間而言，傑夫，我們在第一季將獲得 1000 萬美元，在第二季將獲得 2000 萬美元。所以我認為這些是本季的主要驅動因素。

And Jeff, if I may make a comment back to your first question, I think you're correct to interpret the both sides of the guidance to be down $0.50. I would say, though, that at this point, is merely a sensitivity analysis rather than a guide. And the actions that we have in place are to neutralize this. And there's a lot of uncertainty still even on the tariffs, right? There's a lot of discussions about, how it is going to be pulled back we're starting to action.

傑夫，如果我可以回覆你的第一個問題，我認為你對指導雙方的解讀是正確的，即下降 0.50 美元。不過，我想說的是，目前這只是敏感度分析，而不是一個指南。我們已採取的行動就是為了消除這種情況。甚至關稅問題也仍然存在著許多不確定性，對嗎？關於如何將其撤回，我們已經開始採取行動，對此進行了大量討論。

We're early in this action in the market. I would say, in announcing that we're going to go, but a lot can change here. And this is why we wanted to merely provide some sensitivity around it, that we'll continue to update you on rather than this should be assumed in the guide at this point.

我們在市場上的行動才剛起步。我想說，我們宣布我們要走了，但這裡很多事情可能會改變。這就是為什麼我們只想提供一些關於它的敏感性，我們會繼續向您更新，而不是在此時在指南中假設這一點。

Great. I appreciate that. And then Gerben, just a follow up on how you're thinking about utilities. Would you expect -- you talked about their budgets, right, the budgets will be what they'll anomaly be. But do you expect just then a shift within their budgets between price and volume? Or are they determined volumetrically to get certain things done that would suggest maybe there's some upside here, actually, as they need the volume, and then we'll have to deal with the price because it is what it is?

偉大的。我很感激。然後是 Gerben，請問您對公用事業的看法如何。您是否期望 - 您談到了他們的預算，對，預算將會是異常的。但是您是否預期他們的預算會在價格和數量之間發生轉變？或者他們是否根據數量決定完成某些事情，這可能表明這裡實際上存在一些好處，因為他們需要數量，然後我們必須處理價格，因為這就是它？

Yes, yes. And it's probably a little of both, Jeff, because that's indeed the tension that you have, right? If you have budgets, you have CapEx budgets are you limited by the spend and then you're going to just buy less to do it. I would say, on the one hand, there's pressure to do the work, both on the need for hardening, load growth to support. So I think that puts attention to it.

是的，是的。傑夫，可能兩者都有一點，因為這確實是你所面臨的壓力，對吧？如果您有預算，那麼您的資本支出預算就會受到支出的限制，那麼您就會減少購買量。我想說，一方面，做這項工作有壓力，一方面需要強化，另一方面需要支持負荷成長。所以我認為這會引起人們的注意。

The prices are higher, you have to spend more to still get the same work done. But I'm sure there will be some decisions made. The other thing that you tell the customer because they can shift work between CapEx and OEM, they can focus on grid hardening versus expansion. So I would say it's really hard to call truthfully. But we feel good that utilities are spending more budgets are going up. And that's just good for us, right? And could it be better for us, perhaps, but we feel pretty good about utility.

價格更高，你必須花更多錢才能完成同樣的工作。但我確信會做出一些決定。您告訴客戶的另一件事是，由於他們可以在資本支出和 OEM 之間轉移工作，因此他們可以專注於電網強化而不是擴展。所以我想說，說實話這真的很難。但我們感到高興的是，公用事業的支出正在增加，預算也在增加。這對我們來說是件好事，對吧？也許這對我們來說會更好，但我們對實用性感覺很好。

It's resilient. And even in a more challenged macroeconomic environment, history we have proven that utilities tend to be more resilient.

它很有彈性。即使在更具挑戰性的宏觀經濟環境中，歷史也證明公用事業往往更具彈性。

Great, thank you. I'll leave it there.

太好了，謝謝。我就把它留在那裡。

Moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Charles Tusa with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

現在回答我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的查爾斯·圖薩。您的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning. So I think I've got a problem with like my auto fill on these registrations this morning at several different names called out. The pricing in 2Q, like how do you expect that to kind of feather into 2Q on the way to it being half for the year on an organic basis?

嘿，早安。所以我認為我今天早上在自動填寫這些註冊資訊時遇到了問題，因為叫出了幾個不同的名字。您預計第二季度的定價將如何融入第二季度，從而實現全年有機成長的一半？

Yes. I think we're expecting nice sequential price realization based on the actions we implemented. I think it will probably come a little bit quicker in electrical, just given there's a shorter backlog there, and it's a little bit more book and ship. So I think you'll see a couple of points of incremental contribution from 1Q to 2Q on that.

是的。我認為，根據我們所採取的行動，我們預計價格將實現良好的連續成長。我認為電氣領域的進展可能會更快一些，因為那裡的積壓訂單較少，而且訂單和發貨量會多一些。因此我認為你會看到從第一季到第二季的幾個增量貢獻點。

And then I assume with your commentary around the sequential increase that you seeing a pretty good April. Any signs of prebuys or pull forwards that you guys have seen in your shorter cycle business?

然後，根據您對連續增長的評論，我認為您會看到四月份表現相當不錯。你們在短週期業務中看到任何預購或提前的跡象嗎？

Yes. So I think it's a good question. When we talk to our customers, meaning channel customers, everybody's got anecdotes where it's happened here or there. but no one sees it as a trend. When we talk to end customers, they tell us they're not doing it.

是的。所以我認為這是個好問題。當我們與客戶（即通路客戶）交談時，每個人都會講述一些發生在不同地方的趣聞軼事。但沒有人將其視為一種趨勢。當我們與最終客戶交談時，他們告訴我們他們沒有這樣做。

When we start slicing and dicing SKU data, you see some volatility. So I think, Steve, it would be logical to assume there has to be some happening, but I wouldn't say we see evidence that it's a trend or affecting the trend. So that's -- but logic would say there has to be some people doing it.

當我們開始對 SKU 資料進行切分時，您會看到一些波動。所以我認為，史蒂夫，假設必定會發生一些事情是合乎邏輯的，但我不會說我們看到了證據表明這是一種趨勢或影響趨勢。所以——但邏輯上來說一定有人在做這件事。

And just one last thing back to Jeff's point. So basically, what you're doing with the sensitivity is just saying but you're identifying that the difference between the high and the low range is the tariff dynamic. But is that basically what you're saying?

最後再回到傑夫的觀點。因此，基本上，您對敏感度所做的只是說，但您要確定的是高低範圍之間的差異就是關稅動態。但這基本上就是你所說的嗎？

No. We're trying to say that the second the reciprocal tariffs we know we're going to offset and neutralize. The question is for guidance, can we get all of it into 2025, and we think we can. So we're describing that as a target. We just have no -- we just thought it was responsible to say that with the LIFO lag, there just could be a sensitivity but we're targeting to not have it. And we just wanted to introduce that to you. That's all.

不。我們想說的是，我們知道我們將抵消和中和互惠關稅。問題是為了指導，我們能否在 2025 年之前實現所有目標，我們認為我們可以。因此我們將其描述為一個目標。我們只是沒有——我們只是認為負責任地說，由於後進先出法的滯後，可能會存在敏感性，但我們的目標是避免這種情況。我們只是想向您介紹這一點。就這樣。

Right. So the range reflects fundamentals and if the fundamentals are weaker and they're at the lower of the range and you can't cover this tariff, then that's downside to the low end of the range effectively?

正確的。因此，該範圍反映了基本面，如果基本面較弱並且處於範圍的較低水平，而您無法支付該關稅，那麼這實際上是範圍低端的下行趨勢？

Yes, those 2 things, both of those happen, you'd be below, yes.

是的，這兩件事，都發生了，你會在下面，是的。

Okay, great. Thanks guys.

好的，太好了。謝謝大家。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

請稍等片刻，回答我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。您的線路已開通。

Thanks guys. So just wanted to maybe hone in on the second quarter. if we've taken the $20 million of PTP headwinds in 2Q, does that suggest that EPS is sort of flat to slightly down year-over-year, Bill?

謝謝大家。所以只是想專注於第二季。如果我們在第二季度承受了 2000 萬美元的 PTP 逆風，這是否意味著 EPS 與去年同期相比持平或略有下降，比爾？

I think you're going to be -- if all that played out, you'd be in a comparable range. I think, yes.

我認為你會——如果所有這一切順利的話，你就會處於一個可比的範圍內。我認為是的。

So flattish overall, yes, okay. And then how do you think about price elasticity? And maybe just talk about that into kind of the feedback from the customers on the price increases announced so far. Some companies have been -- factored in elasticity. I don't think you are, but just curious kind of what the reaction has been and then when you think about the mix between surcharging versus price increases, I think historically, you've gone with price increases, but any sort of merit on surcharging just given the volatility in these tariffs?

整體來說比較平淡，是的，好的。那麼您如何看待價格彈性呢？也許只是談論一下客戶對迄今為止宣布的價格上漲的反饋。一些公司已經將彈性因素考慮在內。我不認為你是，但我只是好奇大家的反應是什麼，然後當你考慮附加費和價格上漲之間的組合時，我認為從歷史上看，你選擇了價格上漲，但考慮到這些關稅的波動性，附加費有什麼好處嗎？

Maybe I'll start, Bill, and fill in. I would say, for the first round of tariff. This has been much more inflationary across the broader portfolio, we indicated more than half of it is actually the commodities deal copper aluminum, which is broadly used. And we provide more broad -- implement more broad pricing actions and the early evidence of that in its early as in a couple of weeks now. Looking at the order rate is that, that sticking pretty good, I would say, low elasticity in that.

也許我應該開始，比爾，然後填補空缺。我想說的是第一輪關稅。這對更廣泛的投資組合產生了更大的通膨影響，我們指出，其中超過一半實際上是廣泛使用的商品交易銅鋁。我們提供更廣泛的定價行動，並在幾週內就提供了早期證據。從訂單率來看，這個數字保持得相當好，我想說，這個數字的彈性很低。

The second round of tariffs, which is all I'd say, primarily China driven that then becomes more targeted to certain product lines. And I'd say in certain product lines, we're probably slightly disadvantaged and other product lines where slightly advantaged. But there, too, and we're not only taking price increases. We're doing a lot of work negotiating with suppliers, realigning supply chains where we can, other cost actions to offset and then, of course, the magnitude of these tariffs pricing as well. So we're still planning for this, and we expect to get the price, but I'd say this one is a little more targeted to certain product line.

我想說的是，第二輪關稅主要是由中國推動的，而且將更有針對性地針對某些產品線。我想說，在某些產品線上，我們可能處於稍微不利的地位，而其他產品線上則略有優勢。但我們面臨的不僅僅是價格上漲。我們正在與供應商進行大量談判，盡可能地重新調整供應鏈，採取其他成本措施來抵銷成本，當然，還有這些關稅定價的幅度。所以我們仍在為此做計劃，我們期望獲得價格，但我想說這個更針對某些產品線。

And so could there be some elasticity in certain product line, there could be, and we're thinking through that, I'd say. But I'd say, overall, we're not disadvantaged in the broad picture to our peers, we believe.

那麼某些產品線是否具有一定的彈性，有的是，我們正在考慮這個問題。但我想說，總的來說，我們相信，與同行相比，我們並不處於劣勢。

So I would answer, Nigel, that we did factor in price elasticity into this guide. And as Gerben said, we're not expecting a lot in the first bucket. Second bucket does contemplate some and that's what's embedded in driving some of the sensitivity. As far as your surcharging point, I think you're right to point out that we have stayed away from that in the past and relied on price increases. One of the reasons we like and I think we'd stick with that.

因此，奈傑爾，我的回答是，我們確實將價格彈性考慮進了本指南中。正如 Gerben 所說，我們對第一個桶子沒有太多期待。第二個桶子確實考慮了一些，這就是驅動一些敏感性的原因。至於您的附加費點，我認為您說得對，我們過去一直沒有這樣做，而是依靠價格上漲。這是我們喜歡的原因之一，我認為我們會堅持這一點。

And a good example would be we're facing higher steel aluminum cost, even though we're not paying tariffs. And that's -- so in a surcharge, there's not a tariff there, so you wouldn't get it versus can you just price for that, things like freight inflation, wage inflation, you can just pick up other drivers. And so I think we've thought of it more in the price increase than in the surcharge -- yes.

一個很好的例子就是，儘管我們沒有支付關稅，但我們面臨更高的鋼鐵鋁成本。這就是 - 所以在附加費中，沒有關稅，所以你不會得到它，而你只能為此定價，例如運費通膨、工資通膨，你只能選擇其他司機。所以我認為我們更多地考慮的是價格上漲而不是附加費——是的。

And just one quick follow-up there. Gerben you mentioned you don't think you're disadvantaged. I would have thought the other way around actually. So I'm just curious, especially in the electrical SKUs. I would think you're still seeing a lot of imported products and some of the more, I don't know, lower value commoditized SKUs.

還有一個快速的後續問題。格本，你提到你不認為自己處於不利地位。事實上我本來會反過來想。所以我很好奇，尤其是電氣 SKU。我認為你仍然會看到很多進口產品，還有一些我不知道的低價值商品化 SKU。

So I'm just curious if you see opportunity to gain share from some of that imported products.

所以我只是好奇您是否看到了從一些進口產品中獲得市場份額的機會。

Yes, I'd say broadly, probably not, which certainly, we know some product lines where we are. And that's also something we're considering in this whole -- we're thinking around how to mitigate this, not only by the specific product line, but broadly by action across the portfolio. I wouldn't say broadly as a company, I'd say we're relatively in line with others what our exposure is to offshore supply chains, but there's pockets of advantage.

是的，我會說從廣義上講，可能不會，當然，我們知道我們所處的某些產品線。這也是我們正在整體考慮的事情——我們正在考慮如何緩解這種情況，不僅透過特定的產品線，而且透過整個產品組合的行動。我不會從廣義上說，作為一家公司，我們在離岸供應鏈方面的曝光度與其他公司相對一致，但仍有一些優勢。

Okay, thanks Kevin. Cheers.

好的，謝謝凱文。乾杯。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Chris Snyder with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

請稍等片刻，回答我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。您的線路已開通。

Thank you. I just wanted to ask about the price cost dynamics. So it seems like in the first half of the year, the company will be about $30 million price cost negative. And it seems like you guys see a chance to be price cost neutral for the year, if zero of that $0.50 sensitivity comes through. So I mean, is that implying that you guys are actually price/cost positive in the back half to offset the negative $30 million in the first half? And what would that mean about the exit rates as we kind of think about that into '26? Thank you.

謝謝。我只是想問價格成本動態。因此看起來，今年上半年該公司的價格成本將出現約 3,000 萬美元的負值。如果 0.50 美元的敏感度為零，那麼你們似乎認為今年的價格成本有機會保持中性。所以我的意思是，這是否意味著你們下半年的價格/成本實際上是正值，以抵消上半年的負 3000 萬美元？當我們考慮 26 年的退出率時，這意味著什麼？謝謝。

Chris, you've got that correct. We're anticipating having a surplus that offsets the deficit in the second half versus the first. And as you've seen us come through inflationary environments before as the LIFO reporter, you tend to have this lag period where it's in your -- it's a headwind for couple of quarters. And then I think what you're suggesting is you get the advantage of a tailwind as that moderates out, and we would agree with that analysis.

克里斯，你說得對。我們預計下半年的盈餘將抵銷上半年的赤字。如您所見，我們作為後進先出法報告者，之前經歷過通貨膨脹的環境，您往往會遇到這樣的滯後期，即在幾個季度內這是一種逆風。然後我認為您的建議是，隨著風力減弱，您可以獲得順風的優勢，我們同意這項分析。

Thank you. I appreciate that. I guess maybe just on the second point, sometimes I feel like there's confusion in the market around who you guys are competing against. So could you just maybe kind of talk about who are the main competitors, whether it's Utility T&D, I guess, most specifically, but anything else is a call out on just who is the competitive base here?

謝謝。我很感激。我想也許就第二點而言，有時我覺得市場上對於你們的競爭對手感到困惑。那麼，您能否談談誰是主要競爭對手，我想最具體的是公用事業 T&D，但其他任何事情都可以說明誰是這裡的競爭基礎？

Yes. I would say, Chris, in terms of Utility T&D, the Cooper division of Eaton is a head-to-head competitor, Thomas & Betts, which is now inside of ABB is a direct competitor. And those are big private -- sorry, public company players, and a private company in Chicago called Clean Power Systems. And I would say those are the main T&D competitors.

是的。克里斯，我想說，就公用事業輸配電而言，伊頓的庫柏部門是正面競爭對手，現在隸屬於 ABB 的 Thomas & Betts 是一個直接競爭對手。這些都是大型私人公司——抱歉，是上市公司，還有一家位於芝加哥的私人公司，名為清潔電力系統。我想說這些是 T&D 的主要競爭對手。

Thank you. I appreciate that.

謝謝。我很感激。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell of Barclays. Your line is open.

請稍等片刻，回答我們的下一個問題。下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。您的線路已開通。

Hi, good morning. I just wanted to push a little bit more on the sort of volume assumption dialed into the organic sales guide for the year. So it looks like on Slide 8, you've got sort of 3% plus volumes growth dialed in for the year. And it seems like the first half is sort of guided for flattish volume, down a bit Q1, up a bit Q2. So it's a pretty strong volume growth in the second half. And so just maybe help us understand that a little bit.

嗨，早安。我只是想進一步推動今年有機銷售指南中涉及的銷售假設。因此，從幻燈片 8 上看，今年的銷售成長預計為 3% 以上。看起來上半年的交易量是持平的，第一季略有下降，第二季略有上升。因此下半年的銷售成長相當強勁。這也許能幫助我們稍微理解這一點。

There is some elasticity aspect that you mentioned already, but also easier comps. So maybe help us understand the confidence in that volume acceleration, please.

您已經提到了一些彈性方面，但也有更容易的補償。所以請幫助我們理解對這種數量加速的信心。

Yes, I think you're pointing out, Julian, the intersection between kind of sequential and VPY analysis, right? So if we start with the sequential and look at orders, we think that kind of indicates where the volume will be and when you do it again. So first of all, we agree with your first half analysis that you're talking about. And so you've got to get double the 3% to 4% basically in the second half. And it's driven by strong order book, supporting strong seasonal ramp and having easier comps that allow that sort of mid- to higher single-digit growth rates in the back half.

是的，朱利安，我認為你指出的是順序分析和 VPY 分析之間的交集，對嗎？因此，如果我們從順序開始並查看訂單，我們認為這可以表明交易量將在哪裡以及何時再次執行。所以首先，我們同意您所說的前半部分析。因此，下半年你必須將 3% 翻一番，達到 4%。這是由強勁的訂單推動的，支持強勁的季節性增長，並且更容易比較，從而允許下半年實現中到較高的個位數增長率。

That's helpful, thank you. And then just my second one.

這很有幫助，謝謝。然後就是我的第二個了。

Yes, maybe to just to -- there are a couple of inflection points that really help this too, right? So the distribution side of T&D has returned to growth. So then they really start to help. And as well, the absence, and I hate to bring it up again, but the telecom enclosure declines turning from contraction to growth. So there's a couple of products in there that are inflecting up that also just help what feels like a back half loaded, I might be skeptical of that when you just turn it into math, you realize that's going to be what happens.

是的，也許只是——有幾個轉折點確實對此有幫助，對吧？因此，輸配電業務的分配方面已恢復成長。這樣他們才真正開始提供幫助。此外，我不想再提起這件事，但電信業的衰退正從萎縮到成長。因此，其中有幾種產品正在發生變化，它們也只是幫助感覺像背部半負荷的東西，我可能會對此持懷疑態度，當你把它變成數學時，你就會意識到這將會發生什麼。

That's great, thank you. And just a follow-up around the adjusted sort of margin outlook. So I think in the sort of prior or initial guide construct for the year. It looked like you had sort of maybe flat, slightly up operating margin dialed into the guide midpoint. Is it now sort of down, call it, a few tens of basis points for the year kind of similar to the Q1 margin progression? And any sort of big divergence across the 2 segments you'd highlight on margins?

太好了，謝謝。這只是對調整後的利潤率前景的後續關注。所以我認為這是今年的先前或初始指南構建。看起來您的營業利潤率可能持平，略微上升，達到了指導中點。現在是不是有點下降了，或者說，今年的利潤率下降了幾十個基點，類似於第一季的利潤率成長？您會強調這兩個部分在利潤率上是否有重大差異嗎？

Yes. So you're right that in the original guide, it is up a little bit. And what happens when you add price across in the 3% to 4% range, but hold OP dollars flat. In other words, if all you do is capture dollars back through price, it does create a slightly dilutive effect. But the underlying gross product line profitability is kind of the same.

是的。所以你說得對，在原始指南中，它確實上升了一點。當你將價格提高 3% 到 4% 的範圍，但保持 OP 美元不變時會發生什麼情況。換句話說，如果你所做的只是透過價格收回美元，那麼它確實會產生輕微的稀釋效應。但基礎產品線總獲利能力是差不多的。

But I think you're right to point out that causes a slight headwind to the OP margins when you do that.

但我認為你指出這樣做會對 OP 利潤造成輕微的阻力，這是正確的。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Tommy Moll with Stephens. Your line is open.

請稍等片刻，回答我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自史蒂芬斯的湯米·莫爾。您的線路已開通。

Good morning and thank you for taking my questions.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

Morning Tommy.

早安，湯米。

I appreciated the insight and commentary on the long-range outlook for the big IOU budgets. And to some extent, the message there could be characterized as reaffirming what we've all kind of known and heard from you for a while. But my question today is whether anything has changed or whether you're learning anything. So ideas that come to mind would just be -- what are you hearing on the relative priorities across transmission versus distribution versus generation even? What are you hearing about the step-ups into the latter part of the decade?

我很欣賞對 IOU 大預算長期前景的見解和評論。從某種程度上來說，那裡的訊息可以說是重申了我們已經了解和聽過一段時間的消息。但我今天的問題是，是否有什麼變化，或是否學到了什麼。因此，我想到的是——您聽到的關於輸電、配電和發電的相對優先事項是什麼？您聽到了關於本世紀後半期的哪些進步？

Are we pulling forward some of the dollars, pushing out some of the dollars, I think it's the 5-year range you gave. So there's some flex there? Or is anything else that does seem different now, whether better or worse?

我們是否會提前投入一些資金，推遲投入一些資金，我認為這是你給出的 5 年範圍。那麼這其中存在一些彈性嗎？或者現在還有什麼事情確實看起來不同了，無論是好還是壞？

Maybe I'll start and Bill, feel free to chime in. But I would say it's definitely encouraging that budgets are going up. And again, what we provided for you was the large -- but they represent a good portion and they're pretty spread geographically. So we believe this is representative of what we're seeing. Certainly, as we've communicated, I'd say transmission and substation, particularly strong. We continue to see that both with the interconnections that have been made as well as new substations that are supporting data centers and other load that's coming up.

也許我會開始，比爾，請隨意加入。但我想說的是，預算增加絕對令人鼓舞。再說一次，我們為您提供的服務規模很大——但它們佔了很大一部分，而且它們的地理分佈相當廣泛。因此我們相信這代表了我們所看到的情況。當然，正如我們所溝通的，我想說輸電和變電站尤其強大。我們繼續看到，既有已建立的互連，也有支援資料中心和其他即將出現的負載的新變電站。

But distribution is, in our view, also good. You see hardening projects within that step-up happening as well. As far as the timing and what we tend to see with these and we saw this in transmission spend as well that you see a few years where it shows up and then it kind of flattens and you even see it come down. And our experience in transmission at least was that as these budgets get revised every few years, that peak tends to move to the right so that should, in essence, don't see that decline in the transmission, and actually we started to see this in 2012 or something, it has still continued to ramp this long. It really shows the need to invest in this infrastructure.

但我們認為，分銷也很好。您也會看到該升級過程中強化的項目也在發生。就時間安排和我們傾向於看到的情況而言，我們在傳輸支出中也看到了這一點，你會看到它出現幾年，然後趨於平緩，你甚至會看到它下降。至少我們在傳輸方面的經驗是，由於這些預算每隔幾年就會進行修訂，所以峰值往往會向右移動，因此，本質上不應該看到傳輸的下降，實際上我們在 2012 年左右就開始看到這種情況，它仍然持續上升這麼長時間。這確實顯示了對該基礎設施進行投資的必要性。

So we're encouraged that it's elevated, we're encouraging that they're increasing it. And the other thing I would say, whether they shift that a little bit between one and the other, our portfolio broadly supports the spend wherever they may take it. So I think we're well positioned either way.

因此，我們很高興看到它的提升，我們很高興看到他們正在增加它。我想說的另一件事是，無論他們是否在兩者之間進行稍微的調整，我們的投資組合都會廣泛支持他們的支出，無論他們採取何種方式。所以我認為無論怎樣我們都處於有利地位。

Thank you, Gerben and Bill, I wanted to talk about the M&A environment here. You reminded us of the upsized budget that you've established, I think at the Investor Day, last Investor Day. So a lot of dollars to deploy there. Your preference is clearly M&A. But in this particular environment, I'm just curious what your discussions look like given the uncertainty?

謝謝 Gerben 和 Bill，我想談談這裡的併購環境。您提醒我們，您已經制定了擴大的預算，我想是在投資者日，也就是上屆投資者日。因此需要投入大量資金到那裡。您的偏好顯然是併購。但在這種特殊的環境下，我只是好奇，考慮到不確定性，你們的討論是什麼樣的？

It's interesting, Tommy. The I'd say the pipeline is reasonably active, and we continue to pursue actively a number of situations. Each one is different. And there is an interesting question of these long-term trends, which, as you said, we're just reminding each other of versus is there some general volatility around higher interest rates and potential inflation and the news of a first quarter contraction in GDP and we're not sort of feeling that uncertainty. I don't see -- it hasn't been creating any chill in our type of M&A market.

這很有趣，湯米。我想說的是，管道相當活躍，我們也持續積極地追求一些情況。每一個都是不同的。關於這些長期趨勢有一個有趣的問題，正如你所說，我們只是在互相提醒，是否存在圍繞較高利率和潛在通膨的普遍波動，以及第一季 GDP 萎縮的消息，而我們並沒有感受到這種不確定性。我沒有看到——它並沒有為我們這種類型的併購市場帶來任何寒意。

I think maybe large-scale public to public MOE type stuff, it probably does. But in sort of these kind of things that we're looking at. I think, Tommy, a lot of conversations are continuing actually.

我認為也許是大規模的公共對公共 MOE 類型的東西，它可能確實如此。但我們正在研究這類事情。湯米，我認為實際上很多對話仍在繼續。

Great. Thank you, Bill. I'll turn it back.

偉大的。謝謝你，比爾。我會把它轉回去。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

請稍等片刻，回答我們的下一個問題。下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。您的線路已開通。

Hi, good morning. I wanted to start on kind of first half, second half organic growth dynamic just in terms of -- it seems like for the total company, that might be kind of around 10% growth in the back half of the year. But when you see a little bit more of the tariff pressure tied to the utility side. Just any color on how we think about that between the segments and whether that would be low double digits utility in the back half and high single digits electrical or if the spread might be wider based on that tariff exposure.

嗨，早安。我想先從上半年和下半年的自然成長動態說起——對於整個公司來說，下半年的成長率可能在 10% 左右。但是當你看到與公用事業相關的關稅壓力稍微大一點時。只是我們如何看待各個部分之間的差異，以及這是否會是後半部分的低兩位數公用事業和高個位數電氣，或者基於該關稅風險，價差是否會更大。

Yes. I think the math you're doing would imply a ramp-up in the second half, certainly, Joe, and part of that's again price realization kicking in. And again, that takes a little bit longer on the utility side, just given the backlog. I wouldn't say that tariff exposure is more utility weighted, that it's probably a little bit more electrical weighted when you look at it that way. So I think both sides will sort of see a similar kind of price contribution.

是的。我認為你所做的計算意味著下半年會出現成長，當然，喬，其中一部分是價格實現的再次發揮作用。而且，由於積壓問題，這在實用方面需要更長的時間。我不會說關稅風險更多地取決於公用事業，從這個角度來看，它可能更多地取決於電力。所以我認為雙方都會看到類似的價格貢獻。

And therefore, somewhat similar back half of the year organic growth rates based on the framework you have?

因此，根據您所製定的框架，今年上半年的自然成長率是否有些相似？

Yes. I mean, again, volume will be a little bit different at that sort of ramps up as utility progresses throughout the year.

是的。我的意思是，隨著全年公用事業的進步，這種增長量會略有不同。

Okay. Got it. And then could you expand a little on the sourcing from China in terms of -- I don't know if it includes any raws or if it's all components, what kind of verticals you would be sort of sourcing in terms of the end markets that you serve and where China would be a good source today. And then what you're evaluating in terms of that mid-single-digit exposure and how you think about that moving forward in alternatives?

好的。知道了。然後，您能否稍微詳細地介紹一下從中國採購的情況——我不知道這是否包括任何原材料，還是所有零件，就您所服務的終端市場而言，您會採購哪些垂直行業，以及中國目前在哪裡是一個很好的來源。那麼，您如何評估中等個位數的風險敞口，以及如何看待替代方案的發展？

Yes, Joe, and I think glad you kind of asked about how we think about it going forward. So it's worth noting probably that, that -- we've cut our exposure to China in about half over the last several years. And that's been a function of a couple of businesses that we sold and as well some onshoring or reshoring supply chain kind of redundancy work that we have done. And I wouldn't be surprised if that exposure continues to get managed downward. Right now, there's -- we get some components.

是的，喬，我很高興你詢問我們對未來的看法。因此值得注意的是，在過去幾年裡，我們對中國的投資減少了約一半。這是我們出售的幾家企業以及我們所做的一些在岸或回岸供應鏈冗餘工作的結果。如果這種風險敞口繼續受到控制，我也不會感到驚訝。現在，我們得到了一些組件。

There's not a lot of PFR but mostly more components and things coming in, we can figure out, I think, over time, to diversify that supply chain ultimately.

PFR 並不多，但主要是更多的組件和東西進來，我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們可以最終弄清楚如何實現供應鏈的多樣化。

Yes. So maybe the only thing I'd add, it's mostly components and then we do some manufacturing in China as well. So the actions again that we're taking is negotiating with suppliers right now. It's cost sharing. We're working with some of our supplier partners who are moving their production out of China to other areas.

是的。所以也許我唯一要補充的是，它主要是零件，然後我們也在中國進行一些製造。因此，我們現在採取的行動是與供應商進行談判。這是成本分攤。我們正在與一些供應商合作夥伴合作，將生產從中國轉移到其他地區。

We've moved some of the stores, in particular, during COVID. We worked a lot on resiliency back then for a different reason to create multiple suppliers, and we're doing work right now to move more of that volume to where it's most beneficial. So there's plenty of action taken. But again, reminding you that it's at the end, still a very small percentage of our overall cost of goods sold are manageable. Thank you.

我們已經搬遷了一些商店，特別是在疫情期間。當時，我們出於不同的原因在彈性方面投入了大量精力，以創建多個供應商，現在我們正在努力將更多的供應轉移到最有利的地方。因此我們採取了很多行動。但再次提醒您，到最後，我們的總銷售成本中仍然只有很小一部分是可控的。謝謝。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

請稍等片刻，回答我們的下一個問題。下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。您的線路已開通。

Yeah thanks, good morning guys. Just kind of piggybacking on, I think it was Julian's question earlier about margins for the full business and you guys kind of acknowledge like probably down year-on-year. Is that the case in both segments because electrical still saw a little bit of margin expansion in the first quarter despite the tariff headwinds, curious if that can kind of continue throughout the year. Thank you.

是的，謝謝，大家早安。只是順便提一下，我認為朱利安之前的問題是關於整個業務的利潤率，你們都承認利潤率可能會比去年同期下降。這兩個部門的情況都是如此嗎？因為儘管面臨關稅阻力，電氣部門在第一季的利潤率仍然略有擴大，好奇這種狀況是否能持續到全年。謝謝。

Yes. I think, Nicole, because you're right to say underlying the margins going up, but this effect of having price that's basically just offsetting fast is what would create the headwind. And I think electrical would experience that as well.

是的。妮可，我認為，因為你說得對，利潤率確實在上升，但價格的這種效應基本上只是快速抵消，這才是造成逆風的原因。我認為電氣也會經歷這種情況。

Okay. Understood. And then I know it's a small part of the business, but obviously, pretty volatile in recent years. What are you guys seeing in telecom now? Has that actually improved to growth? Or is that something that you expect to see as we kind of move through the year?

好的。明白了。我知道這只是業務的一小部分，但顯然近年來相當不穩定。你們現在在電信領域看到了什麼？這實際上促進了增長嗎？或者這是我們預計在今年內會看到的事情？

Yes. We're seeing the sales decline flatten and the order book growing. And the compare is getting easier to grow against. And so that actually, on the call feel like -- it feels like it's inflected to us.

是的。我們看到銷售額下降趨勢趨於平緩，訂單量不斷成長。而且，與競爭對手相比，成長也變得越來越容易。因此，實際上，在通話中感覺就像 - 感覺它對我們來說是變形的。

Thank you, I'll pass it on.

謝謝，我會傳達的。

A moment for our next question. Your next question comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho. Your line is open.

請稍等片刻，回答我們的下一個問題。您的下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Brett Linzey。您的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning, all. I wanted to come back to grid automation. So down 15%, I guess, how did that track versus the internal expectation and then implicitly, the utility meters business was down much more than that. You had guided that business down high singles for the year. How has the outlook changed relative to the original expectation?

嘿，大家早安。我想回到電網自動化領域。所以下降了 15%，我猜，這與內部預期相比如何，然後隱含地，公用事業電錶業務的下降幅度遠不止於此。您已帶領該業務在當年實現了高額盈利。相對於最初的預期，前景有何變化？

Yes. So I'd say the quarter for that was softer than we had anticipated. But I do think there's encouraging signs of smaller project wins and the MRO portion of the business is starting to create, [Brett], a floor where they can kind of operate at a level now and not be, for example, some kind of falling knife. And so we're actually encouraged as thinking about the sequential is actually flattening now and being able to kind of run it from here, but a little more modest probably than we originally thought as the year started.

是的。所以我想說本季的表現比我們預期的要疲軟。但我確實認為，有一些令人鼓舞的跡象表明，一些小型項目已經獲勝，而業務的 MRO 部分正開始創造一個底線，[Brett] 他們現在可以在一定水平上運營，而不是像某種下落的刀子一樣。因此，我們實際上感到鼓舞，因為考慮到連續性現在實際上正在趨於平緩，並且能夠從這裡開始運行，但可能比我們今年年初最初想像的要溫和一些。

Yes. Maybe the additional context on that is, as Bill said, a little softer, but offset by stronger T&D than we had initially anticipated. And both of these are embedded in our guide for the full year.

是的。也許正如比爾所說，這方面的附加背景稍微弱一些，但被比我們最初預期的更強勁的 T&D 所抵消。這兩項內容都已包含在我們全年的指南中。

All right. Yes, that's helpful, thanks. And then just one more on utility distribution, so the strong orders up double digits. I guess are there any other indicators or anecdotes from large utilities or inventory data from distributors that gives you more confidence that the destocking has really run its course here.

好的。是的，這很有幫助，謝謝。然後，再談一下公用事業分銷，因此強勁的訂單量上升了兩位數。我想是否有其他指標或來自大型公用事業的軼事或來自分銷商的庫存數據可以讓您更有信心地相信去庫存化已經真正完成。

Yes, I would say all of the above, certainly dialogue with distributor customers, dialogue with end customers it does suggest that inventories are much more in line with originally targeted. I mean it's slightly -- the topic has some tenant calls -- there's lots of SKUs, lots of customers, lots of geographies. So there could be some pocket in a geography with a customer of a SKU where they still want to work it down. But we would argue that you won't see it. We'll be able to grow now to the extent and those little small things will be not visible, and we feel we're -- I mean I know we've been begging your patients broadly for the last five quarters or so, but we think we're here now and ready to grow T&D, and that's fantastic news.

是的，我想說以上所有，當然與分銷商客戶的對話，與最終客戶的對話確實表明庫存更符合最初的目標。我的意思是，這個主題有一些租戶呼叫——有很多 SKU、很多客戶、很多地理位置。因此，他們可能仍希望在某個地區的某個 SKU 客戶中開展業務。但我們認為你不會看到它。我們現在可以發展到一定程度，而那些小事將不會被看到，我們覺得我們——我的意思是，我知道在過去的五個季度左右，我們一直在廣泛地懇求你們的患者，但我們認為我們現在已經準備好發展 T&D，這是個好消息。

Appreciate the insight.

感謝您的見解。

And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Dan for any closing remarks.

我現在不想再問任何問題。我想將電話轉回給丹，讓他做最後的總結發言。

Great. Thanks, operator. Thanks, everybody, for joining us. I'll be around all day for follow-ups.

偉大的。謝謝，接線生。感謝大家加入我們。我會全天關注後續情況。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束。現在您可以斷開連接，享受美好的一天。