Hubbell Inc (HUBB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. And welcome to the fourth-quarter 2024 Hubbell earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 2024 年第四季 Hubbell 收益電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Dan Innamorato. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人 Dan Innamorato。請繼續。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release announcing our results for the fourth-quarter 2024. The press release and slides are posted to the Investors section of our website at hubbell.com.

謝謝，接線生。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。今天早些時候，我們發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了 2024 年第四季的業績。新聞稿和幻燈片發佈於我們網站 hubbell.com 的投資者部分。

Joined today by our Chairman, President, and CEO, Gerben Bakker; and our Executive Vice President and CFO, Bill Sperry. Please note our comments this morning may include statements related to the expected future results of our company and are forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

今天加入我們的還有我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Gerben Bakker；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長比爾·斯佩里（Bill Sperry）。請注意，我們今天早上的評論可能包括與我們公司預期未來業績相關的陳述，並且是 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》定義的前瞻性陳述。

Please note the discussion of forward-looking statements in our press release and consider it incorporated by reference to this call. Additionally, comments may also include non-GAAP financial measures. Those measures are reconciled to the comparable GAAP measures and are included in the press release and slides.

請注意我們新聞稿中對前瞻性陳述的討論，並將其視為對本次電話會議的引用。此外，評論還可能包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些指標與可比較的 GAAP 指標相協調，並包含在新聞稿和幻燈片中。

Now let me turn the call over to Gerben.

現在讓我把電話轉給 Gerben。

Great. Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss Hubbell's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results. Hubbell delivered strong double-digit growth in adjusted operating profit, adjusted earnings per share, and free cash flow in the quarter.

偉大的。早安，感謝您加入我們討論 Hubbell 2024 年第四季和全年業績。本季度，Hubbell 的調整後營業利潤、調整後每股盈餘和自由現金流均實現了強勁的兩位數成長。

While organic volumes were below our expectations, strong execution drove year-over-year adjusted operating margin expansion of 240 basis points. On a full-year basis, we achieved mid-single-digit sales growth, 9% adjusted operating profit growth, 90 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, and double-digit growth in free cash flow.

儘管有機銷售量低於我們的預期，但強勁的執行力推動調整後營業利潤率較去年同期擴大 240 個基點。全年來看，我們實現了中等個位數的銷售額成長、9%的調整後營業利潤成長、90個基點的調整後營業利潤率擴大以及兩位數的自由現金流成長。

2024 adjusted earnings per share of $16.57 was above the high end of our initial guidance range, as well as our latest outlook we provided in October. We achieved this strong full-year performance despite having to navigate pockets of significant challenges in telecom markets and Utility customer destocking, as we executed effectively throughout the year on four key levers within our control.

2024 年調整後每股收益為 16.57 美元，高於我們最初指引範圍的高端，也高於我們 10 月提供的最新展望。儘管我們必須應對電信市場和公用事業客戶去庫存方面的一些重大挑戰，但我們仍然取得了強勁的全年業績，因為我們全年有效地執行了我們控制的四個關鍵槓桿。

The first of these levers is that we made significant progress in 2024 on our strategy to unify our Electrical Solutions segment. We generated above-market growth in attractive verticals, with an integrated solutions-oriented service model for our customers, while at the same time, driving business simplification and operational efficiencies to expand margins.

第一個槓桿是我們在 2024 年統一電氣解決方案部門的策略上取得了重大進展。我們透過為客戶提供一體化解決方案導向的服務模式，在具有吸引力的垂直領域實現了高於市場的成長，同時推動業務簡化和營運效率提高以擴大利潤率。

These efforts resulted in double-digit adjusted operating profit growth in 2024 despite absorbing the impact of the residential lighting divestiture. Second, we effectively captured opportunities from secular growth trends across our Utility and Electrical markets, most notably driving double-digit growth in transmission and substation markets in front of the meter, as well as renewables and data center balance of system solutions behind the meter.

儘管吸收了住宅照明業務剝離的影響，這些努力仍使 2024 年調整後營業利潤實現了兩位數成長。其次，我們有效地抓住了公用事業和電力市場長期成長趨勢帶來的機遇，最顯著的是推動了電錶前的輸電和變電站市場以及電錶後可再生能源和數據中心系統解決方案的平衡實現兩位數增長。

Third, we proactively managed price-cost-productivity in 2024. Price realization remains favorable across both segments. We are delivering on accelerated productivity plans in our factories and supply chain. And we actively managed our cost structure and discretionary spending.

第三，2024年我們積極管理價格-成本-生產力。兩個細分市場的價格實現仍然十分有利。我們正在工廠和供應鏈中實施加速生產力計畫。我們積極管理成本結構和可自由支配的開支。

And fourth, our strong balance sheet and differentiated capital deployment strategy contributed significantly to our success, primarily to the acquisition and successful integration of systems control. As we look ahead, we expect that the temporary headwinds we faced in 2024 will fade going forward, while each of the levers that we have driven our success in 2024 and prior years, remain intact for '25 and beyond.

第四，我們強勁的資產負債表和差異化的資本配置策略對我們的成功做出了重大貢獻，主要是對系統控制的收購和成功整合。展望未來，我們預計，2024 年面臨的暫時逆風將會逐漸消退，而我們在 2024 年及之前幾年取得成功的每個槓桿將在 2025 年及以後保持不變。

We are introducing our full-year 2025 outlook this morning, which anticipates mid-single-digit organic growth, with continued margin expansion and attractive growth in operating profit, earnings per share, and free cash flow. This outlook is consistent with our long-term financial framework and demonstrates Hubbell's confidence in our ability to continue compounding off of a strong multiyear base of performance.

我們今天早上推出了 2025 年全年展望，預計有機成長率將達到中等個位數，利潤率將繼續擴大，營業利潤、每股收益和自由現金流也將實現可觀的成長。這一前景與我們的長期財務框架一致，並表明 Hubbell 對我們在多年強勁業績基礎上繼續實現複合增長的能力充滿信心。

I will share more details on the outlook at the end of this call. But first, let me turn it over to Bill to provide you with some more details on our performance in the quarter.

我將在本次電話會議結束時分享更多有關前景的細節。但首先，讓我把話題交給比爾，讓他向您提供有關我們本季業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Gerb, and good morning, everybody. Appreciate you taking the time to be with us. I'm going to use the slides to guide my comments, and I'm starting on page 4 of those materials.

謝謝，Gerb，大家早安。感謝您抽出時間與我們同在。我將使用幻燈片來指導我的評論，並且從這些材料的第 4 頁開始。

So this four blocker, you can see the strong performance Hubbell turned in in the fourth quarter. And you can see the business model in action, double-digit growth in operating profit, double-digit growth in earnings per share, and 28% growth in free cash flow despite flattish sales.

透過這四個攔網，你可以看到哈貝爾在第四節的強勁表現。你可以看到商業模式的實際作用：營業利潤達到兩位數成長，每股盈餘達到兩位數成長，儘管銷售額持平，但自由現金流卻成長了 28%。

Those flat sales at $1.3 billion were below our expectations. It's not uncommon for year-end to have different forms of incentive-driven distortions. Specifically, there are some volume-driven rebates in the system, as well as free cash flow-driven bonus formulas. And those kinds of incentives can lead decision makers to not want inventory and put their orders in to be shipped after December. And in particular, in low-volume years, those can be exacerbated a little bit.

13 億美元的銷售額持平於我們的預期。年末出現不同形式的激勵驅動扭曲並不罕見。具體來說，系統裡有一些以交易量為導向的回饋，以及以自由現金流為導向的獎金公式。這些激勵措施可能會導致決策者不願意庫存，並將訂單安排在 12 月以後發貨。特別是在產量較低的年份，這種情況可能會稍微加劇。

So I think we experienced some of that in December. But independent of the organic -- on the inorganic side, a good contribution on sales from our net M&A efforts. So that includes exiting the residential lighting business, but adding systems control, which, just to remind everybody, provides turnkey solutions in the substation market. And you saw a good contribution to sales inorganically there.

所以我認為我們在 12 月經歷了一些這樣的情況。但除了有機收入之外，從無機收入來看，我們的淨併購努力對銷售做出了良好的貢獻。因此，這包括退出住宅照明業務，但增加系統控制，提醒大家，這在變電站市場提供交鑰匙解決方案。而且您會看到無機產品對銷售的貢獻很大。

The operational performance more than made up for that sales backdrop. In particular, some of the price-cost-productivity levers were effectively pulled. We continue to get price in the quarter. So I think impressive after a couple of years of compounding here between '22 and '23 and now '24. And on the operational side, those portfolio transformation efforts really benefit the margins as well. So you saw 2.5 points -- nearly 2.5 points of margin expansion.

營運業績遠遠彌補了銷售下滑的缺陷。尤其是一些價格-成本-生產力槓桿被有效拉動。我們在本季繼續獲得價格。因此，我認為，經過 2022 年、2023 年以及現在 2024 年的幾年複合成長，這令人印象深刻。從營運方面來看，這些投資組合轉型努力也確實使利潤率受益。因此，您看到了 2.5 個百分點——利潤率擴大了近 2.5 個百分點。

On the EPS side, an increase of 11% to $4.10 in the quarter. That 11% growth rate is in line with operating profit. So the non-op items were neutral in the quarter. And the free cash flow, up 28%, I think, is noteworthy. It delivered for the full year above our target of $800 million, which is about a 90% conversion rate. And I think, of note, this cash flow performance absorbs continued increases in our CapEx investments.

每股盈餘方面，本季成長 11%，至 4.10 美元。11%的成長率與營業利潤一致。因此，本季的非經營項目表現中立。我認為自由現金流成長了 28%，這是值得關注的。全年業績超出了我們 8 億美元的目標，轉換率約為 90%。值得注意的是，我認為，這一現金流表現吸收了我們資本支出投資的持續成長。

Those investments continue to be really important for driving capacity in our high-growth areas and getting productivity out of the system. And that CapEx for us over the past three years has doubled. So that free cash flow is really helping finance that. And we think those projects are quite good and give us good returns.

這些投資對於推動我們高成長領域的產能和提高系統生產力仍然非常重要。過去三年我們的資本支出翻了一番。因此，自由現金流確實有助於融資。我們認為這些項目非常好並且為我們帶來了豐厚的回報。

I think let's unpack the performance now by segment, and I'm going to start with the Utility segment on page 5. And again, you can see solid operational performance, with double-digit operating profit growth and about 1.5 points of margin expansion.

我認為現在讓我們按部分來解析效能，我將從第 5 頁的實用程式部分開始。我們再次看到穩健的營運業績，營業利潤實現兩位數成長，利潤率擴大約 1.5 個百分點。

The sales growth of 4% is driven by the acquisition of Systems Control. It's also supported by double-digit growth in our transmission and substation product areas, as well as in protection and controls. And that was partially offset by the weakness we continue to feel in the telecom enclosures area, where we were down 20%; and in the Utility distribution products area, where we're continuing to experience customer inventory rationalization.

4% 的銷售成長主要得益於對 Systems Control 的收購。這也得益於我們的輸電和變電站產品領域以及保護和控制領域的兩位數成長。這在一定程度上抵消了我們在電信外殼領域持續感受到的疲軟，該領域的銷售額下降了 20%；在公用事業分銷產品領域，我們繼續經歷客戶庫存合理化。

We believe that that is starting to isolate in the distribution products set only and specifically with the larger investor-owned utilities as opposed to the munis and co-ops. So we can see that inventory issue getting narrowed into the finite area.

我們認為，這開始在分銷產品集中孤立出來，特別是與市政債券和合作社相比，較大的投資者擁有的公用事業公司。因此我們可以看到庫存問題正在縮小到有限的範圍內。

The operating profit driven the growth of 12%, up to 22.9% margin. It was really driven by managing price again as well as productivity benefits from prior-year investments and the new acquisition of Systems Control coming in, not only providing dollars but coming in at attractive margins. So kind of underscoring and highlighting where Gerben was commenting on the capital allocation, you can see really helping the Utility segment here in the fourth quarter.

營業利益帶動利潤率成長12%，達22.9%。這實際上是由再次管理價格、前幾年投資帶來的生產力效益以及新收購的系統控制帶來的效益所推動的，不僅帶來了美元收益，而且帶來了誘人的利潤率。因此，在 Gerben 對資本配置發表評論時，您可以看到這在第四季度確實對公用事業部門有所幫助。

I think two areas of note that I would add. We talked about sales in the distribution products area, and I think it's important to talk about orders. So the orders in the fourth quarter on the transmission and distribution area were solid. We saw the customers, as we say, queuing up for '25 deliveries rather than looking for shipments to be received in December.

我想補充兩個值得注意的方面。我們談到了分銷產品領域的銷售情況，我認為談論訂單很重要。因此，第四季輸配電領域的訂單很穩健。正如我們所說，我們看到客戶排隊等待 25 天的交貨，而不是等待 12 月收到的貨物。

And that book-to-bill in the grid infrastructure area was above 1 for the first time since early 2023. Favorable order trend, actually, continued through January into our New Year here. And so we think that above 1 book-to-bill is strongly suggestive that the effects of the destocking we've been experiencing are fading here in 2025.

自 2023 年初以來，電網基礎設施領域的訂單出貨比首次超過 1。事實上，良好的訂單趨勢一直持續到一月新年。因此，我們認為，訂單出貨比超過 1 強烈暗示我們所經歷的去庫存化的影響將在 2025 年逐漸消退。

The second area of note is the grid automation sales being down 11%. I think it's important to point out the challenging comparison. The fourth quarter of last year had growth of 37%. So super normal growth that had been driven by us, delivering on the backlog and the breakthrough of the chip shortage. In addition, we had some project roll-offs in a lumpy business. So three strong quarters of growth, and then the fourth quarter contracting.

值得注意的第二個領域是電網自動化銷售額下降了 11%。我認為指出具有挑戰性的比較是很重要的。去年第四季成長了37%。因此，我們推動了超正常成長，解決了積壓訂單並突破了晶片短缺的問題。此外，我們在業務不景氣的情況下也進行了一些專案。因此，前三個季度成長強勁，後四個季度則出現萎縮。

We're expecting -- because the compare was also strong in the first quarter of '24. So we're expecting this kind of trend to continue in the first quarter of '25, and then improvement through the balance of three quarters of '25 after that.

我們預計—因為 24 年第一季的比較也十分強勁。因此，我們預計這種趨勢將在2025年第一季持續下去，然後在2025年的後三個季度內得到改善。

We thought it would be worthwhile to pull back the lens and Utility from the fourth quarter to the full year. And on page 6, we provided you with an image of some of the headwinds and tailwinds, and some of the moving pieces that we navigated through.

我們認為將鏡頭和實用程式從第四季度拉回到全年是值得的。在第 6 頁，我們為您提供了一些逆風和順風的圖片，以及我們遇到的一些移動部件。

And I think we think showing you the resilience of our business model and its ability to perform despite some headwinds. And we think this also illustrates a strong setup for '25. So thinking about headwinds on the page, looking into specialty infrastructure which is the business unit that has both enclosures and our gas distribution products.

我認為，我們想向您展示我們的商業模式的彈性及其在面臨一些阻力的情況下仍能發揮作用的能力。我們認為這也表明 25 年將有一個強勁的發展。因此，請思考頁面上的逆風，研究專業基礎設施，這是同時擁有外殼和我們的天然氣分配產品的業務部門。

We've been talking to you all year about the softness there. We've been talking about strong declines in percentage terms, but also a high-margin business. And so the combination of that leads to the significant headwind that you see there.

我們整年都在和你談論那裡的柔軟之處。我們一直在談論百分比的大幅下降，但同時也談論高利潤的業務。所以，所有這些因素綜合起來就導致了你所看到的巨大阻力。

But the addition of Systems Control and again, underscoring Gerben's point about capital allocation, investing in the substation market, which offers us high growth as well as high margins. And so you see a really strong contribution to '24.

但是增加系統控制並再次強調了 Gerben 關於資本配置的觀點，投資變電站市場，這為我們帶來了高成長和高利潤。因此您會看到對 '24 的貢獻非常巨大。

It happens to be an area that is experiencing good book-to-bill and backlog build. And that backlog gives us a bit strong visibility to '25 and is supportive of us having a high single-digit growth expectations for that business unit this year in '25. And so a strong contributor in its first year and expecting continued strength in its second year.

恰巧這個地區的訂單出貨比和積壓訂單量都表現良好。這些積壓訂單使我們對 25 年有了很強的預見性，並支持我們對今年該業務部門在 25 年實現高個位數成長的預期。因此，它在第一年就做出了強有力的貢獻，並期望在第二年繼續保持強勁勢頭。

In the T&D area, we talked about the distribution side having the temporary effects of the inventory being managed down by both the channel and the end user. But we grew mid-single digits driven by the strength in transmission and substations, so you can see positive contribution from T&D infrastructure. And you also see the positive contribution from grid automation.

在輸配電領域，我們討論了分銷方面由於通路和最終用戶共同管理庫存而產生的暫時影響。但在輸電和變電站實力的推動下，我們實現了中等個位數的成長，因此你可以看到輸配電基礎設施的正面貢獻。您還可以看到電網自動化帶來的正面貢獻。

We talked about how it ended. And that's -- at the end of the fourth quarter, it's really driven inside the meters and comm side. There's the grid protection and controls products also in there. Those are strong growth, and we're expecting that to continue into 2025 as well.

我們討論了事情的結局。這就是——在第四季度末，它真正在儀表和通訊方面得到了推動。其中還有電網保護和控制產品。這些都是強勁的成長勢頭，我們預計這種勢頭也將持續到 2025 年。

So in sum, we're feeling that for 2024, generating 9% operating profit growth and again, reminding ourselves that we're compounding now on top of 50% growth over the prior two years of '22 and '23. And we think this is really showing preview to our strong position.

因此，總而言之，我們認為 2024 年的營業利潤將成長 9%，並且再次提醒自己，我們現在的複合成長率是在 2022 年和 2023 年兩年 50% 的成長基礎上實現的。我們認為這確實預示著我們的強勢地位。

We've got quality products, quality customer relationships, and we're getting those customers the high-quality products at the right time and the right price. And we think that shows that we're poised to grow. And the two temporary areas of softness in '24, we think, are both inflecting to the positive for '25. So Gerben is going to give you the outlook, but we think this is a good setup for us in Utility.

我們擁有優質的產品、優質的客戶關係，並且我們在合適的時間以合適的價格為客戶提供高品質的產品。我們認為這表明我們已準備好成長。我們認為，24 年的兩個暫時疲軟領域都將對 25 年產生正面影響。因此，Gerben 將為您提供展望，但我們認為這對 Utility 來說是一個很好的設定。

So page 7, I'm going to go back to the Electrical segment and the fourth-quarter perspective. And you see the benefits of this multiyear transformation of the Electrical segment continuing, where we see strong execution in Q4 with 10% operating profit growth and about 3.5 points of margin expansion.

所以第 7 頁，我將回到電氣部分和第四季的觀點。您可以看到電氣部門多年轉型帶來的好處仍在繼續，我們看到第四季度執行情況強勁，營業利潤增長 10%，利潤率擴大約 3.5 個百分點。

The top line is down slightly when you exclude the divestiture of resi. And when you exclude the impact of our PCX acquisition, which is (technical difficulty) of product redesign with a key customer. And that really caused a 4-point drag to the segment in the quarter and not unlike Systems Control, PCX also with some visibility backlog and give us some confidence and a strong '25.

如果排除房地產剝離，營業收入會略微下降。當我們排除 PCX 收購的影響時，與關鍵客戶進行產品重新設計（技術難度）。這確實導致該部門在本季度下滑了 4 個百分點，而且與系統控制不同，PCX 也有一些可見性積壓，這給了我們一些信心和強勁的 25 個百分點。

But we also, in the top line, had strengths, renewables and data center balance of system. Our light industrial markets were very strong. And I would contrast that to some of the softer trends in commercial and heavy industrial.

但我們在營收方面也有優勢，再生能源和資料中心系統平衡。我們的輕工業市場非常強勁。我將把它與商業和重工業領域的一些較為溫和的趨勢進行比較。

I think operating profit up double digits. It's been driven by the exit of the resi lighting and strengthening the margin profile of the segment, good price, and productivity improvements. And Gerben referred to the business simplification and efficiency initiatives that -- it has a multiyear still in front of its benefit to come.

我認為營業利潤將成長兩位數。這是由於住宅照明的退出以及該部門利潤率的加強、良好的價格以及生產率的提高。格本提到了業務簡化和效率舉措，這些舉措在未來幾年仍將帶來效益。

So we feel there's -- we're looking at a multiyear road map here of a strong quarter for Electrical segment, strong year. And looking forward to strong contributions next year. And turn it back to Gerben to share our outlook for '25.

因此，我們感覺，我們正在研究電氣部門強勁成長的多年路線圖，即強勁成長的一年。並期待明年能做出巨大貢獻。最後再請 Gerben 分享我們對 25 年的展望。

Great. Thanks, Bill. I will end our prepared remarks with a brief overview of our 2025 outlook, starting with organic growth expectations on slide 8.

偉大的。謝謝，比爾。我將以對我們 2025 年展望的簡要概述來結束我們的準備好的發言，首先是第 8 張幻燈片上的有機增長預期。

We anticipate 4% to 5% organic growth in 2025. This is consistent with the mid-single-digit long-term framework we provided at our Investor Day last June. And our expectations by markets are consistent with the early preview we shared with you in October.

我們預計 2025 年有機成長率將達到 4% 至 5%。這與我們去年 6 月投資者日提供的中位數長期框架一致。我們對市場的預期與我們 10 月與您分享的早期預測一致。

We anticipate 4% to 6% organic growth in our Utility Solutions segment, as we are well positioned to continue capitalizing on electrification-driven load growth and interconnection projects across transmission, substation, and grid protection and controls market. While we expect our meters and AMI business to decline year over year in 2025, we are confident that telecom markets and high-margin Utility distribution markets will return to growth.

我們預計公用事業解決方案部門將實現 4% 至 6% 的有機成長，因為我們處於有利地位，可以繼續利用輸電、變電站、電網保護和控制市場中電氣化驅動的負載成長和互連項目。雖然我們預計我們的電錶和 AMI 業務在 2025 年將逐年下滑，但我們相信電信市場和高利潤的公用事業分銷市場將恢復成長。

In Electrical Solutions, we anticipate 3% to 5% organic growth in '25. And we continue to make significant progress in our transformation of the HES segment to compete collectively in high-growth verticals. And we expect GDP plus growth in 2025.

在電氣解決方案方面，我們預計'25年有機成長率為 3% 至 5%。我們在 HES 領域轉型方面繼續取得重大進展，以便在高成長垂直領域進行集體競爭。我們預計 2025 年 GDP 將實現成長。

Most notably, we anticipate mid-teens growth in our data center business, as artificial intelligence drives accelerated build-out of large projects. And we anticipate solid mid-single-digit growth across renewables and Electrical T&D markets.

最值得注意的是，由於人工智慧推動大型專案的加速建設，我們預期資料中心業務將實現十五六倍的成長率。我們預計再生能源和電力輸配電市場將實現穩健的中等個位數成長。

While macroeconomic uncertainty drives a more muted outlook in commercial and heavy industrial markets, we see high visibility to continued Electrical mega project activity driving relative strength across light industrial markets.

雖然宏觀經濟的不確定性導致商業和重工業市場前景更加低迷，但我們看到持續的大型電力項目活動將推動輕工業市場的相對走強。

Turning to slide 9. We anticipate mid-single-digit organic growth and continued adjusted operating margin expansion to drive full-year adjusted earnings per share of $17.35 to $17.85, and free cash flow conversion of at least 90% of adjusted net income.

翻到第 9 張投影片。我們預計，有機成長將達到中等個位數，調整後營業利潤率將繼續擴大，從而推動全年調整後每股收益達到 17.35 美元至 17.85 美元，自由現金流轉換率至少達到調整後淨收入的 90%。

We expect 2025 performance to primarily be driven by volume growth. And we are confident that our unique leading positions in attractive end markets will enable us to achieve these targets. We continue to proactively manage price-cost-productivity across our portfolio. And we expect positive contributions from PCP and restructuring benefits, partially offset by a return of investment spending needed to drive further growth and productivity initiatives.

我們預計 2025 年的業績將主要受銷售成長推動。我們相信，我們在具有吸引力的終端市場中獨特的領先地位將使我們能夠實現這些目標。我們將繼續積極管理整個產品組合的價格-成本-生產力。我們預期PCP和重組收益將帶來正面貢獻，但推動進一步成長和生產力措施所需的投資支出回報將部分抵銷這項貢獻。

From a nonoperating standpoint, we anticipate a higher year-over-year tax rate and other expenses to be partially offset by lower net interest expense. I am confident in our ability to deliver on our initial 2025 outlook, which represents continued attractive growth across our key financial metrics and would reflect an adjusted earnings per share and adjusted operating profit CAGR above 20% over a five-year period.

從非營業角度來看，我們預期同比稅率和其他費用的上升將被淨利息支出的下降部分抵銷。我相信我們有能力實現我們最初的 2025 年願景，這意味著我們的主要財務指標將繼續實現可觀的成長，並反映出調整後的每股盈餘和調整後的營業利潤在五年內的複合年增長率超過 20%。

With that, let me turn the call over to Q&A.

說完這些，讓我將話題轉入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research.

（操作員指示） Jeffrey Sprague，垂直研究。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just back to kind of the channel inventory situation, obviously, it's been frustrating for us, and I'm sure for you, how long this has taken on -- taken to kind of correct itself. I just wonder if you could really speak to your level of visibility. Because I think when it comes down to it, no one really had that much visibility in the channel.

謝謝。大家早安。回到渠道庫存情況，顯然，這對我們來說是令人沮喪的，我相信對你來說，這花了多長時間——花了多長時間才得到糾正。我只是想知道您是否真的可以談談您的知名度。因為我認為，說到底，沒有人真正在該頻道擁有那麼大的知名度。

But now you're making a very granular point about IOUs versus muni, so maybe just the significance of that comment, what it portends for how much more inventory might be out there and how much longer to the residual clears.

但是現在您正在對 IOU 與市政債券進行非常細緻的比較，所以也許只是該評論的重要性，它預示著可能還有多少庫存以及剩餘清算還需要多長時間。

Yes, Jeff, good morning. Let me maybe start with that. And you're right to point out that it's been frustrating to try to pinpoint this down. I would say we break it down between IOU and public market, A, because our visibility is better on the IOU. And that's where we believe it to be most pronounced right here.

是的，傑夫，早安。讓我先從那件事開始。您說得對，試圖找出這一點是件令人沮喪的事。我想說我們將其分解到 IOU 和公開市場 A 之間，因為我們在 IOU 上的可見性更好。我們認為，這正是這種現象最明顯的地方。

So if you break down the IOUs, within that, we have a subset of that, which we call our VIP customers. It's where we have long-standing relationship where we have, perhaps, the best visibility that we can have. And after our discussions initially with the channel, where that started to normalize, turned over to -- okay, let's look at end the customer (technical difficulty) the end user where it still exists. That's where we started to look.

因此，如果你分解 IOU，你會發現其中有一個子集，我們稱之為 VIP 客戶。我們在這裡建立了長期的合作關係，也許這是我們能獲得的最佳知名度。在我們最初與管道進行討論之後，情況開始正常化，然後轉向——好的，讓我們看看最終客戶（技術難題）以及最終用戶仍然存在的問題。這就是我們開始觀察的地方。

So we started to have much better visibility of where they were. They were quite elevated in the year, and they were not at the same level. So different customers started to go after this more aggressively than other customers, depending on where they were in the country, other things that affected it.

因此我們開始更加清楚他們的位置。他們當年的地位都挺高的，根本不是一個等級的。因此，不同的客戶開始比其他客戶更積極地追求這一點，這取決於他們在該國的哪個地方以及影響它的其他因素。

When storms hit, we saw certain customers bringing their inventory faster than others. So that's where we have the best visibility that as we've continued to track it, Jeff, we're starting to see that that's starting to now mute. And I would say, it's going to get better from here, for sure, as some are now starting to get through this.

當暴風雨來襲時，我們發現某些客戶比其他客戶更快地運送庫存。所以這就是我們擁有最佳可見性的地方，隨著我們繼續跟踪它，傑夫，我們開始看到它現在已經開始靜音了。我想說，情況肯定會從現在開始好轉，因為有些人現在已經開始渡過難關了。

I would say this isn't an event that you can call a date from, and it's over. So I think even if we go into this year, we'll see some remnants of it. But the important part that we're starting to see a return to growth. The other thing that I'd point out, in the public market, that we also measure -- actually, through '24, actually, we started to see a return to growth. And that also through conversation with people that were much less stocked up and as a result, didn't have to destock.

我想說這不是一個可以稱之為約會的事件，它已經結束了。因此我認為，即使我們進入今年，我們也會看到它的一些殘餘。但重要的是我們開始看到恢復成長。我想指出的另一件事是，在公開市場上，我們也進行了衡量——實際上，到 24 年，我們實際上開始看到成長的恢復。這也是透過與庫存較少的人交談，結果就不需要去庫存了。

So we've gotten smarter, I would say, throughout the year. We've gotten more analytical in trying to call this. It's, I would say, still imperfect. But what we really feel good about is that we're starting to see now a return to growth. And I think we'll -- I wouldn't call it an inflection. But I would call it a positive signs that's constructive to why we're providing the outlook for '25 that we are.

所以我想說，我們這一年變得更聰明了。我們在嘗試對此進行更深入的分析。我想說，它仍然不完美。但真正讓我們感到高興的是，我們現在開始看到經濟恢復成長。我認為我們—我不會稱之為一種轉變。但我認為這是一個積極的信號，這對我們提供25年的前景具有建設性。

Just maybe to clarify, Gerben's use of the word public there is referring to muni and co-ops where we actually grew mid-single digits. So Jeff, that's we're kind of distinguishing between those two. Because you could kind of see that market segment kind of buying and installing at the same rate. And so it can't be really isolated to the IOUs.

也許需要澄清的是，Gerben 使用的「公共」一詞是指市政債券和合作社，而這些領域的成長率實際上達到了中等個位數。傑夫，這就是我們對這兩者之間的區別。因為你可以看到該細分市場的購買率和安裝率是相同的。所以它不能真正地與 IOU 隔離。

Great, thanks for that. And then given that people are still drawing inventory, it certainly follows that no one is prebuying inventory because of tariff concerns and that sort of thing. But I wonder if you could give us a little bit of updated perspective on what percent of your COGS might be exposed to Mexican, Canadian, Chinese tariffs, if things do happen as volatility we've seen this week?

太好了，謝謝。鑑於人們仍在吸收庫存，因此，出於關稅方面的擔憂和諸如此類的原因，當然沒有人會預先購買庫存。但我想知道，如果情況真的像我們本週看到的那樣波動，您是否可以給我們一些最新的觀點，即您的銷貨成本中有多少百分比可能受到墨西哥、加拿大和中國關稅的影響？

Yeah. So I think, Jeff, as you can imagine, we've been spending a lot of time planning both commercially and operationally around the tariff question. I think starting with the Chinese parts back in '18, when the first tariff regime came through, we had some exposure there that was largely driven by our lighting businesses, both the C&I lighting as well as the resi lighting.

是的。所以我認為，傑夫，你可以想像，我們花了大量時間圍繞關稅問題進行商業和營運規劃。我認為從2018年中國零件開始，當第一個關稅制度出台時，我們在那裡有一些業務，這主要是由我們的照明業務推動的，包括商業和工業照明以及住宅照明。

We've since disposed of both of those and hence, dramatically reduced our Chinese exposure. We've also been one of the industrials who's been affecting some reshoring, so further reducing the Chinese exposure. So at this point, quite small exposure there.

此後，我們已經處理掉了這兩家公司，從而大大減少了我們在中國的業務。我們也是影響部分製造業回流的工業企業之一，因此進一步減少了對中國的依賴。因此就這一點而言，曝光率相當小。

I guess, we could argue of the moving pieces. That's maybe the piece that has some clarity, and it's got -- would have a very small impact to us that we would navigate through a combination of price and productivity.

我想，我們可以就移動的部分進行爭論。這也許是比較明確的一點，而且它對我們的影響很小，我們將透過價格和生產力的結合來決定。

With Canada and Mexico, obviously, still a very fluid situation from our perspective. You had executive orders signed on Saturday. You had discussions with presidents and premiers on Monday that put a delay on things.

從我們的角度來看，加拿大和墨西哥的情況顯然仍然非常不穩定。你們已於週六簽署行政命令。您週一與總統和總理進行了討論，這導致事情被推遲。

But as you kind of ask, we've been working really hard on our commercial side, developing pricing regime by kind of business unit by product to ensure that we would be able to navigate any effects from the tariff. We're obviously calculating other productivity moves and supply chain moves, as well as calculating currency moves.

但正如你所問的，我們一直在商業方面非常努力地工作，根據產品和業務部門制定定價制度，以確保我們能夠應對關稅的任何影響。我們顯然正在計算其他生產力變動和供應鏈變動，以及計算貨幣變動。

And so ultimately, Jeff, while it's very unclear to us what actually is going to happen here -- I mean, again, remind us in '18, the initial tariffs that were announced ended up having exceptions and moving around quite a bit.

因此，傑夫，最終，雖然我們不清楚這裡實際上會發生什麼 - 我的意思是，再次提醒我們，在2018年，最初宣布的關稅最終出現了例外，並且發生了很大變化。

We have a commerce secretary who's not confirmed, a trade ambassador who's not confirmed, right? So our assessment, Jeff, is quite a fluid situation. And we're preparing ourselves to absorb and neutralize any effects that would ultimately be landed on by the policy team.

我們的商務部長還沒有確認，貿易大使也還沒確認，對嗎？所以傑夫，我們的評估是相當不穩定的情況。我們正在做好準備，吸收並消除政策團隊最終可能帶來的任何影響。

(multiple speakers) No, I was just going to say, understood we don't know if it's going to be 0% or 10% or some other number. But can you give us a sense of maybe just what percent of your COGS come out of Mexico?

（多位發言者）不，我只是想說，我們不知道它是 0% 還是 10% 或其他數字。但您能否告訴我們，您的銷貨成本中究竟有多少百分比來自墨西哥？

Yeah. I mean, we haven't quantified it, Jeff. It's number two after the US, and we'll give that data as tariffs come in. And don't want to provide any false precision at this point.

是的。我的意思是，我們還沒有量化它，傑夫。它是僅次於美國的第二大經濟體，我們將在關稅出台後公佈相關數據。並且此時不想提供任何錯誤的精度。

Yeah. And the reality, we are predominantly US-centric company. Maybe that's both in our sales, both in our footprint. We do have a few facilities in Mexico. One is a pretty sizable one, very, very efficient to our operation. But the vast majority of manufacturing happens in [North America].

是的。事實上，我們主要是一家以美國為中心的公司。也許這既體現在我們的銷售額上，也體現在我們的足跡上。我們在墨西哥確實有一些工廠。其中一個規模相當大，對我們的營運非常非常有效。但絕大多數製造發生在[北美]。

The other thing that I would say -- and Bill alluded to a little bit our preparedness for this. I could tell you, we will be taking a very aggressive approach in the timing of when these things hit to react. Of course, we're working on productivity as well.

我想說的另一件事是——比爾稍微提到了我們對此的準備。我可以告訴你，當這些事情發生時，我們將採取非常積極的方式來做出反應。當然，我們也在努力提高生產力。

If you see currency, the value or the dollar strengthened, that will lead us to start discussions with suppliers on that front. But there's no doubt that when this happens -- the magnitude that was on the table here up until yesterday, that's going to require pricing. And we're going to act with speed on that.

如果您發現貨幣、價值或美元走強，這將促使我們就此與供應商展開討論。但毫無疑問，當這種情況發生時——直到昨天為止，這裡討論的規模都是如此，這將需要定價。我們將迅速採取行動。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示） Nigel Coe，Wolfe Research。

Hi, guys. Good morning. So Bill, respectful of the answer you gave to Jeff, I mean, it is sort of a key topic in the market right now. I mean, there's some out there with like a mid-teens proportion of Mexico COGS. Is that in the right ballpark? Too high, too low? I mean, any sense would be helpful.

嗨，大家好。早安.所以比爾，我尊重你給傑夫的答案，我的意思是，這現在是市場的關鍵主題。我的意思是，有些墨西哥企業的銷貨成本比例大約在 15% 左右。這是正確的答案嗎？太高還是太低？我的意思是，任何意義都是有幫助的。

Yeah, you're in the right ballpark.

是的，您的判斷是正確的。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just thinking about the Electrical margins in the fourth quarter, 20%, I think that's the first time you've ever had a two-handle in that segment.

好的。這很有幫助。然後想想第四季的電氣利潤率，20%，我認為這是該領域第一次出現雙利潤率。

I know lighting is a mix benefit year over year. But just think about that sequential improvement from 3Q to 4Q, normally margins are down. So just wondering, is there anything unusual in that fourth-quarter number? And then thinking about the 2025 view, is that two-handle for the full year '25 on the table here?

我知道照明每年都會帶來混合效益。但只要想想從第三季到第四季的連續改善，利潤率通常就會下降。所以我只是想知道第四季的數據有什麼不尋常的嗎？然後思考一下 2025 年的觀點，這裡討論的是 2025 年全年的雙手把嗎？

Yeah. Let's start with the sequential comment. And I would say, Nigel, nothing particularly unusual. I would agree with you. It's historically a good benchmark for us to hit. I do think we had some lower-growth, lower-margin lighting businesses that were, I think, frankly, obscuring a little bit some of the strengths of the balance of our Electrical products.

是的。讓我們從順序評論開始。我想說，奈傑爾，沒有什麼特別不尋常的。我同意你的看法。從歷史上看，這對我們來說是一個很好的基準。我確實認為我們的一些照明業務成長較低、利潤率較低，坦白說，這些業務在一定程度上掩蓋了我們電氣產品平衡的優勢。

And again, I think you saw some great growth in areas like data centers, like renewables, like light industrial areas. And I think you saw some good drop-through in some high-margin areas of those products help. And so as we think about '25, I think those are the areas that continue to be strong. And so I don't see any kind of mix pullback or anything that would work against us, Nigel.

而且我認為，你看到了資料中心、再生能源、輕工業等領域的顯著成長。而且我認為您看到這些產品的一些高利潤領域出現了一些良好的下降。因此，當我們思考25年時，我認為這些領域將繼續保持強勁。因此，我認為不會出現任何形式的混合回調或任何對我們不利的因素，奈傑爾。

Maybe the only thing I could add, Bill, in the fourth quarter that we saw is the mix between PCX and Burndy, right? So that we saw decline a little bit as we go over to that design change going into '25, and Burndy actually strengthened. And that creates a little bit of a favorable mix for the quarter.

比爾，也許我唯一能補充的是，在第四季度我們看到的就是 PCX 和 Burndy 之間的混合，對嗎？因此，當我們進入 25 年的設計變更時，我們看到了一點衰退，而 Burndy 實際上得到了加強。這為本季帶來了一些有利的因素。

But I agree with your point, is that that segment as a whole still has an opportunity to drive margin expansion over the next few years. And that's what they're focused on.

但我同意你的觀點，整個細分市場在未來幾年仍然有機會推動利潤率擴大。這正是他們關注的重點。

Great. Okay. Thank, guys.

偉大的。好的。謝謝大家。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，大家早安。

Hey, Steve.

嘿，史蒂夫。

Would you say it's closer to 20% or -- no, I'm just kidding. On pricing, what was price in the quarter for each of the segments, and what are you assuming for each into this year?

您是否認為它更接近 20% 或 — — 不，我只是在開玩笑。關於定價，本季每個細分市場的價格是多少？

It was positive in both segments, Steve. Less than 1 point overall, a little bit more in Electrical than Utility.

史蒂夫，這兩個部分都是正面的。整體不到 1 分，電氣部分比公用事業部分略高。

And then in those discussions with these utilities, first of all, how big like as a percentage of those VIP customers? And is there any -- how did those pricing discussions play out?

然後在與這些公用事業公司的討論中，首先，VIP 客戶的比例是多少？有沒有——這些定價討論結果如何？

And then just, lastly, if you guys could give a little bit of color on the seasonal dynamics for earnings. I think last year, you were around 22% of the year in EPS. Should we be in and around that number in the first quarter this year is to calibrate us?

最後，如果你們可以稍微介紹一下收益的季節性動態的話。我認為去年你的 EPS 大約佔全年的 22%。我們今年第一季的數字是否應該在這個數字左右進行校準？

Maybe let me start with the seasonality question first, and then we'll go back to the Utility customer questions, Steve. But so we would anticipate that the first quarter of '25 would contribute in the same sort of low 20s ballpark to the EPS of 2025, same as '24, but also pretty similar seasonality wise.

也許讓我先從季節性問題開始，然後我們再回到公用事業客戶的問題，史蒂夫。但我們預計 25 年第一季對 2025 年每股盈餘的貢獻將達到 20% 左右，與 24 年相同，而且季節性也非常相似。

It is -- I think just to note that we would be anticipating growth in the first quarter over prior year to be a little bit less than Gerben's 4% to 5% full-year growth. So just kind of thinking about the first quarter, right, I do think it's going to be normal seasonality. And the growth rate on a compare basis, it will be better in the next three quarters.

是的——我認為需要注意的是，我們預計第一季的成長率將略低於 Gerben 的 4% 至 5% 的全年成長率。所以只是思考一下第一季的情況，我確實認為這將是正常的季節性。而且從年比來看，未來三個季度的成長速度會更好。

And maybe to your question around pricing and the discussions around pricing, I mean, this is certainly a topic that's front and center to our customers. Actually, the positive is they're reaching out, and they want to proactively find out what our approach is going to be to it.

也許對於您關於定價的問題以及有關定價的討論，我的意思是，這無疑是我們客戶關注的焦點話題。實際上，積極的一面是他們正在伸出援手，並且他們想主動了解我們的處理方法。

We've seen actually some of our distributor partners actually already with letters out to the market, kind of providing some insight of kind of what tariffs -- possibilities are coming. So from that perspective, Steve, I'd say it's very much something that's expected to happen. What generally our partners and our customers ask for us a little bit of time so that they can pass it through two-step distribution, as you can imagine, right? We pass it to our distributor partners who then have to pass it on to their customers.

實際上，我們看到一些分銷合作夥伴已經向市場發出了信函，對未來可能出現的關稅提供一些見解。所以從這個角度來看，史蒂夫，我認為這是完全可以預料到的事情。通常我們的合作夥伴和客戶會要求我們一點時間，以便他們能夠透過兩步分發，正如您可以想像的那樣，對嗎？我們將其傳遞給我們的經銷商合作夥伴，然後他們必須將其傳遞給他們的客戶。

So it's generally much more about discussions around the timing and kind of the magnitude than it is, whether it's coming up. So we feel good about, A, the need is absolutely there, especially at these kind of magnitudes to get price. We've proven to be able to be successful at it.

因此，一般來說，人們更多地討論的是時機和規模，而不是它是否會發生。所以我們感覺很好，A，需求是絕對存在的，特別是在這種程度的價格下。已證明我們能夠成功。

And I'd say, the discussions that we're having with VIPs, those would be, I'd say, perhaps more transparent. And they're disclosure partners to us than to the general market. I'd say it's constructive to the actions that we would have to take.

我想說，我們與貴賓進行的討論可能會更加透明。他們是我們的資訊揭露合作夥伴，而非一般市場的揭露合作夥伴。我想說這對我們必須採取的行動具有建設性。

And just on the price in 4Q, more than 1 point in the quarter. Just to clarify.

光是第四季的價格來看，本季就上漲了 1 個多點。只是為了澄清一下。

Thanks for the color. Great charts, Dan. Thanks.

謝謝你的顏色。很棒的圖表，丹。謝謝。

Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Hi, good morning. Maybe I just wanted to -- good morning -- just to focus on the operating margin guide that's kind of embedded. So I think adjusted margins are up about [90 bps] in the year just finished. For 2025, is it sort of 50 bps or so of increase? And any color around what we should expect in terms of operating margin performance at each of the two segments?

嗨，早安。也許我只是想 - 早上好 - 只專注於嵌入式的營業利潤率指南。因此我認為，剛剛過去的一年，調整後的利潤率上升了約 [90 個基點]。對 2025 年來說，成長率是不是會達到 50 個基點左右？我們對這兩個部門的營業利益率表現有何預期？

Yeah. I think you've got the calculation right. I think if you did incrementals on the growth, you could develop a model that could get a little more margin expansion than that. And we wanted to be explicit with our investment expectations and some of the non-op stuff to make it clear that not all of that incremental would land.

是的。我認為你的計算是正確的。我認為，如果您對成長進行增量，您就可以開發一個可以獲得比這更多一點的利潤擴張的模型。我們希望明確我們的投資預期和一些非營運內容，以表明並非所有增量資金都會落地。

And I think when you think about it between the segments, I think that, as Nigel was getting at, I think on the Electrical side, you've got this question of good-margin products being high-growth areas. And that's positive to the story.

我認為，當你考慮各個部分時，我認為，正如奈傑爾所說的那樣，我認為在電氣方面，你會遇到這樣的問題：利潤豐厚的產品是高成長領域。這對故事來說是正面的。

But also, they're doing a lot of investing in efficiency areas and taking some disparate businesses and having them compete collectively, and things like unifying the sales force and simplifying back-office steps. And so there's some sort of good old-fashioned grinded out margin work in Electrical, as well as good margin growth and mix benefits.

而且，他們也在效率領域進行了大量投資，並將一些不同的業務整合在一起，讓它們共同競爭，以及統一銷售團隊和簡化後台流程等。因此，電氣業務中既存在著某種傳統的精細化利潤工作，也存在著良好的利潤成長和組合效益。

I think on the Utility side, it's much more driven around getting this volume back and delivering the incremental. So it's -- I think you're right to point out that that kind of margin expansion, it kind of it comes through the volumes coming back.

我認為從實用方面來看，它更側重於恢復這一數量並提供增量。所以 — — 我認為你說得對，這種利潤率的擴大，是透過銷售回升而實現的。

That's great. And then just following up on the Utility growth outlook, so you have a lot of good color on slide 6 and 8 on that. Maybe just to home in a little bit on that Utility meters and AMI portion. So we're right in thinking that that [PE/grid] automation is down maybe low double digits still in the first quarter.

那太棒了。然後繼續討論公用事業成長前景，因此幻燈片 6 和 8 上有很多精彩內容。也許只是稍微了解一下公用事業儀表和 AMI 部分。因此，我們正確地認為，第一季[PE / grid]自動化程度可能仍會下降兩位數。

The year was a hold down high single, and you're sort of stable-ish exiting the year? Is that the right way to think about it? And any way to parse out sort of is it just outright customer spend cuts versus destock-type activity?

今年您的單曲銷售量很高，今年您的銷售量還算穩定嗎？這是正確的思考方式嗎？有什麼方法可以分析出這是否只是直接削減客戶支出，還是採取去庫存類型的活動？

Maybe I'll break it down because I think what you said is grid automation, which is the larger business, particularly within grid automation, where we've been talking is the meters and AMI. So I think what the numbers kind of you quoted, they're actually correct for that part of the business.

也許我會把它分解一下，因為我認為你所說的是電網自動化，這是更大的業務，特別是在電網自動化領域，我們一直在談論的是電錶和 AMI。所以我認為你引用的數字對於該部分業務來說實際上是正確的。

But we still expect, despite those challenges from those product lines, grid automation as a whole, that has some very attractive areas that are growing double digits to still slightly grow for the full year in '25. But what you quoted is correct for the subset of grid automation.

但是，儘管這些產品線面臨挑戰，我們仍然預計，整個電網自動化領域仍將有一些非常有吸引力的領域以兩位數的速度增長，2025年全年仍將小幅增長。但您引用的內容對於電網自動化的子集來說是正確的。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的克里斯·斯奈德。

Thank you. I appreciate the question. So it sounds like the company expects to be organic growth positive in Q1 and probably solidly so, albeit below the 4% to 5% for the full year. Is the expectation that the 4-point Electrical headwind from the PCX design change is totally gone in Q1?

謝謝。我很感謝你提出這個問題。因此，聽起來該公司預計第一季的有機成長將為正，而且很可能保持穩健，儘管低於全年的 4% 至 5%。預計 PCX 設計變更帶來的 4 點電氣逆風會在第一季完全消失嗎？

And then is there any way to size the headwinds in Q4 related to some of the year-end inventory availability or variability, I should say, that you referenced in the opening remarks? Thank you.

那麼，有沒有什麼方法可以衡量第四季度與您在開場白中提到的一些年底庫存可用性或變化相關的阻力呢？謝謝。

Yeah, Chris, the -- let's start with your PCX question. Yes, we're anticipating that to be bouncing in Q1. And sorry, what was the -- can you just remind me --?

是的，克里斯，讓我們從您的 PCX 問題開始。是的，我們預計第一季會出現反彈。抱歉，剛才那句話是什麼──你能提醒我嗎？--？

The variability on inventory into year, it sounds like the destock was maybe a little bit sharper due to some maybe customer-specific reasons. So if you could size that.

庫存逐年變化，聽起來去庫存可能由於一些特定客戶的原因而更加劇烈。所以如果你能確定其大小的話。

Yeah. I mean, we -- I wouldn't -- I don't think we would size it for you. And I'd just say, I'm just hoping that this may be our last earnings call, where we're spending a lot of time on the word destock or customer inventory management. Because I do think that as we see the order book in the fourth quarter and through January, I think we're seeing that issue fading.

是的。我的意思是，我們 - 我不會 - 我認為我們不會為您確定尺寸。我只想說，我只是希望這可能是我們的最後一次財報電話會議，我們在會議上花了很多時間在去庫存或客戶庫存管理這個詞上。因為我確實認為，隨著我們看到第四季度和整個一月份的訂單，我認為我們會看到這個問題正在消退。

Yes. And I think maybe to reiterate, it's -- as I stated, it's a gradual right now incline. It's not everybody is done on the same date, and then it inflects. But it's definitely a positive move into '25.

是的。我想也許需要重申的是，正如我所說，這是一個漸進的過程。並不是每個人都在同一天完成，然後就會改變。但這無疑是邁向25年的積極一步。

Thank you. And then maybe just a follow-up on the point about, I mean, orders, sorry, getting better in the back half of Q4 and continuing that into January with book-to-bill going back above 1.

謝謝。然後可能只是關於訂單的後續問題，抱歉，第四季度後半段的情況有所好轉，並且這種趨勢將持續到 1 月份，訂單出貨比將回到 1 以上。

And this might be a hard one. But kind of when you kind of see the orders come through, is there any way or visibility to determine kind of what's true demand coming from the market versus potential tariff prebuy? Are customers trying to get ahead of some of the tariff inflation that may come? Thank you.

這可能是一個困難的問題。但是當您看到訂單時，有沒有什麼方法或可見性來確定來自市場的真正需求與潛在的關稅預購？客戶是否想提前應對可能出現的關稅上漲？謝謝。

Yes. I'd say that's hard. I would say on tariffs, the one thing that we do is when those come, we really watch the order patterns. Because what we don't want to happen is for our customers to get ahead of us because that, of course, would have implications to capturing the tariffs.

是的。我認為這很難。關於關稅，我想說的是，當關稅到來時，我們會認真關注訂單模式。因為我們不希望發生這樣的情況：我們的客戶領先我們，因為這當然會對關稅徵收產生影響。

So we look at typical order patterns by customer. And if they start exceeding and we start to -- unless there's a real project that's happening, we watch over that. So can you have some of that? Of course, it could. But I don't believe that that -- we're going to (technical difficulty) we need to prevent that from being a big bubble ahead of tariffs.

因此，我們會根據客戶來查看典型的訂單模式。如果他們開始超出預期，我們就會開始——除非有一個真正的專案正在進行，否則我們會監視它。那你能吃一些嗎？當然可以。但我不相信——我們將（技術困難）需要在關稅之前防止其形成巨大的泡沫。

Thank you. Appreciate that.

謝謝。非常感謝。

Tommy Moll, Stephens.

湯米·莫爾，史蒂芬斯。

Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Morning, Tommy.

早安，湯米。

I wanted to start on the topic of inventory management and electric distribution. A lot's been discussed already.

我想開始討論庫存管理和電力分配這個主題。很多事情已經討論過了。

But one item we haven't explored is, with these VIP customers that you referenced, are you able to tell, let's say, in 2024, what their, I'll call it, consumption rate or install rate of these SKUs was? If we're really trying to get to what the market demand looks like last year, do you feel like that was still a positive trend?

但我們還沒有探討的一點是，對於您提到的這些 VIP 客戶，您能否告訴我們，比如說，在 2024 年，這些 SKU 的消費率或安裝率是多少？如果我們真的想了解去年的市場需求狀況，您是否認為這仍然是一個正面的趨勢？

Yes, I'd say one of the things that we had discussions, maybe not on an SKU basis of what they're installing, but we look at the CapEx and the OpEx budgets. Those are generally the conversations we have with them on what they're installing.

是的，我想說我們討論的事情之一可能不是基於他們所安裝的 SKU，而是我們會考慮資本支出 (CapEx) 和營運支出 (OpEx) 預算。這些通常是我們與他們就他們正在安裝的內容進行的對話。

Oftentimes, what the discussions there are they give us kind of the plans of projects that they're going to be implementing in the year ahead. And are we prepared with our capacity to support that? The other thing is in -- not with the IOUs, but in the public power market, we actually saw growth in '24.

他們通常在討論時向我們提供未來一年將要實施的專案計劃。我們是否已經做好了能力準備來支持這一點？另一件事是——不是 IOU，而是在公共電力市場，我們實際上看到了 24 年的成長。

So that gives us confidence that the markets are growing. So while not at an SKU level between the CapEx budgets, the more general discussions and what we're seeing in parts of the market, we feel that the install rate is growing.

這讓我們有信心市場正在成長。因此，雖然在資本支出預算中沒有達到 SKU 級別，但根據更普遍的討論以及我們在部分市場看到的情況，我們認為安裝率正在增長。

Thank you, Gerben. That's helpful. I also wanted to touch on M&A today. Just going back to your most recent Investor Day, deploying more dollars in the form of M&A was one of the key themes there. And so it's a two-part question.

謝謝你，Gerben。這很有幫助。今天我還想談談併購。回顧最近的投資者日，以併購形式投入更多資金是主要主題之一。這是一個由兩部分組成的問題。

What can you tell us in general about the pipeline for this year? And then also maybe just to hit on the recent rumors of a rather large transformer deal in the market, any comment you can make on appetite or lack thereof for transformers, would be appreciated as well. Thanks.

您能向我們大致介紹一下今年的計畫嗎？然後也許只是為了打個比方，最近有傳言稱市場上有大量的變壓器交易，如果您能對變壓器的需求或缺乏需求發表任何評論，我們將不勝感激。謝謝。

Yes, Tommy. So as coincidence would have it, we closed on a deal yesterday. It is an add-on to the Electrical segment, small in size, sort of in the $70 million-ish purchase price area. And it helps with both powering and controlling around wireless networks. And it's just a bolt-on for an acquisition we did a few years ago, a company called AccelTex.

是的，湯米。巧合的是，我們昨天達成了交易。它是電氣部門的一個附加部分，規模較小，購買價格約為 7,000 萬美元。它有助於為無線網路供電和控制。這只是我們幾年前收購的一家名為 AccelTex 的公司的附加部分。

And so a good example of a kind of maybe typical Hubbell size, not moving the needle of balance sheet or earnings per share per se. But the kind of deal that we think we can add a lot of value to and something that we're trying to invest in high-growth situation with high margins. And that's something that we just landed yesterday.

這也許是典型的 Hubbell 規模的一個很好例子，它本身不會改變資產負債表或每股盈餘的指標。但我們認為這類交易可以增加許多價值，而且我們正試圖投資高成長、高利潤的業務。這是我們昨天剛實現的。

You're asking about the pipeline. I would say, again, the balance sheet is really well poised to support investing. The team is really busy. We're looking at a variety of sizes, a variety of sources, from whether they be private equity sellers or corporate sellers or families.

您問的是管道問題。我想再說一遍，資產負債表確實已經做好了支持投資的準備。團隊確實很忙。我們正在尋找各種規模、各種來源的賣家，無論是私募股權賣家、企業賣家或家庭。

So still continue to be robust dialogue across opportunities in both segments, Electrical and Utility. And we'd like to continue, as you pointed out, to be an active investor here. And I think I would decline comment on any specific target that you mentioned.

因此，仍然繼續就電氣和公用事業兩個領域的機會進行積極的對話。正如您所說，我們想繼續成為這裡的積極投資者。我認為我不會對你提到的任何具體目標發表評論。

Fair enough. Thank you. And I'll turn it back.

很公平。謝謝。我會把它轉回去。

Christopher Glynn, Oppenheimer.

克里斯托弗·格林，奧本海默。

Thank you. Good morning, guys. So you talked a bit about the Hubbell unification process for ATS and multiyear efficiencies coming ahead. We could see it very visibly in the renewables and data center growth trends.

謝謝。大家早安。所以您談到了 Hubbell 的 ATS 統一過程以及未來的多年效率。我們可以從再生能源和資料中心的成長趨勢中非常明顯地看到這一點。

Curious if you could comment on where you're seeing other benefits play through or maybe the balances coming through. But I'm thinking in terms of pricing power realization, service levels. What other instances of yield are you seeing on the unification currently?

好奇您是否可以評論一下您看到其他好處發揮了什麼作用，或者平衡了什麼作用。但我考慮的是定價權實現和服務水準。目前您在統一方面還看到了哪些其他收益實例？

Yeah, I think you're mentioning some of it. It's what we call competing collectively, so not just in the high-growth verticals, but overall in our portfolio, where you have strong positions with some of our really leading brands and can those help pull through other brands. We've probably seen that happen.

是的，我認為您提到了其中的一些。這就是我們所說的集體競爭，不僅是在高成長垂直領域，而且在我們的整個產品組合中，您在一些真正領先的品牌中佔據強勢地位，這些品牌是否能夠幫助其他品牌脫穎而出。我們可能已經看到過這種情況。

We'll continue to drive simplification in our business systems in the back office. So it's not one thing. I mean, our restructuring will continue to be elevated in that area over the next couple of years with site consolidations.

我們將繼續推動後台業務系統的簡化。所以這不是一件事。我的意思是，未來幾年，透過站點整合，我們在該領域的重組將繼續提升。

So I see this as a -- maybe we've harvested some low-hanging fruit early on. But I'd say over the next few years, we still have benefits both on growth from these efforts and on efficiency on the cost side.

因此，我認為也許我們很早就已經收穫了一些唾手可得的果實。但我想說，在未來幾年裡，我們仍然可以從這些努力中獲得成長效益，並在成本方面提高效率。

Okay. And then one on pricing. Just I think you've had some discovery in the past few years on your pricing power as a business with your market position.

好的。然後是關於定價。我只是認為，過去幾年來，您已經根據自己的市場地位，對自己的定價能力有了一些發現。

And would you say you're at kind of a new normal of sustainable pricing power posture that's different from where you were a few years ago, just based on understanding of the business that has developed over the past few years?

您是否認為，基於對過去幾年業務發展的理解，您現在處於一種可持續定價權態勢的新常態，與幾年前有所不同？

Yeah. I'd say -- so I mean, certainly, the magnitude of the pricing that we've been active over the last couple of years, we haven't been anticipating that that's going forward. Now of course, when tariffs hit and to the extent that magnitude, we're going to have to.

是的。我想說——所以我的意思是，當然，我們過去幾年一直活躍的定價幅度，我們並沒有預料到未來會發生這樣的變化。當然，當關稅達到一定程度時，我們就必須這麼做。

But yeah, I would say, certainly, the success that we've had in that over the last few years, not just in the magnitude of it but in the speed by which we've acted on that, we've learned a lot. So I'd say, yes, we've got to become a -- and we've organized around it better. So I think we're more capable in that area today than we would have been in a number of years ago.

但是的，我想說，毫無疑問，過去幾年我們在這方面取得的成功，不僅體現在規模上，還體現在我們採取行動的速度上，我們學到了很多東西。所以我想說，是的，我們必須成為一個——並且我們已經圍繞它組織得更好了。因此我認為我們今天在這方面的能力比幾年前更強。

Okay. Thanks, Gerben.

好的。謝謝，Gerben。

Joseph O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的約瑟夫‧奧迪亞 (Joseph O’Dea)。

Hi, good morning. Hi. Can you talk about, again, on the kind of Electrical distribution, but thinking through the mid-single-digit growth expectation in 2025? And if you could just frame how much it was down in 2024?

嗨，早安。你好。您能否再次談論電力分佈的情況，但請考慮 2025 年中等個位數的成長預期？您能估算一下 2024 年下降了多少嗎？

It would seem like you've got a relatively easy comp in that mid-single-digit growth is something that we think about as potentially being more like through cycle growth. And so just trying to think through the upside potential to that, but also some of the dynamics in the market and if you're still seeing kind of budget prioritization (inaudible) and more sophisticated (inaudible) that could be a pressure point.

看起來你得到了一個相對容易的比較，因為中等個位數的成長是我們認為可能更像是週期性成長。因此，不僅要嘗試思考其中的上行潛力，還要考慮市場中的一些動態，如果您仍然看到預算優先（聽不清楚）和更複雜的（聽不清楚），這可能是一個壓力點。

That's an interesting question. Because I do agree there's something sort of in the long term of mid-single digits and the compare is easier. So is there a path to do better, certainly, if the market and orders are there, we think we'll get our fair share. So it's an interesting question.

這是一個有趣的問題。因為我確實同意，從長遠來看，中等個位數存在某種情況，而且比較起來更容易。那麼有沒有更好的辦法呢？這是一個有趣的問題。

Okay. And then also on telecom, I thought that the comps are going to be easier in the fourth quarter, so it's still down [20]. Maybe just kind of missed that.

好的。然後就電信業而言，我認為第四季度的同店銷售額會比較低，所以它仍然處於下滑狀態[20]。或許只是有點錯過了。

But did that come in a little softer than expected? And similar kind of question, like why wouldn't the growth be better than low single? Maybe just some historical perspective on how strong 2023 was, perhaps, just to understand kind of telecom dynamic.

但這是否比預期的弱一些？還有類似的問題，例如為什麼成長不會比低單一更好？也許只是一些關於 2023 年實力的歷史視角，也許只是為了了解電信動態。

Yeah. 2023 was really strong. So that part is there. I do think your point, the comps were getting easier in 4Q. And so we've kind of had 40% and 30% and 20% kind of declines. And so we're layering into a much easier situation. So as you point out, we're starting to look at orders, look at getting the flattening of that, and then enabling the growth, which is what we're seeing.

是的。 2023 確實很強大。所以那部分就在那裡。我確實認為你的觀點是，第四季的競爭變得更容易了。因此我們分別經歷了 40%、30% 和 20% 的下降。這樣，我們的處境就變得輕鬆多了。正如你所指出的，我們開始關注訂單，希望使其趨於平穩，然後實現成長，這就是我們所看到的。

So I do agree with you, we're coming off very strong growth into [23], which makes the compares hard, and the compares are easier. But the facts are, we're going to be running a smaller enclosures business than we were before. And we should be able -- off of this lower base, as you point out, we should be able to grow it. And there's lots of active RFQs and RFPs and et cetera, out there. So we're trying to gauge all that.

所以我同意你的觀點，我們在[23]方面實現了非常強勁的成長，這使得比較變得困難，也使得比較變得容易。但事實是，我們經營的外殼業務規模將比以前更小。而且我們應該能夠——正如你所指出的，在這個較低的基礎上，我們應該能夠實現成長。目前還有很多活躍的 RFQ 和 RFP 等等。因此我們正在嘗試衡量這一切。

Yeah. And I would say for that, we want to remain very disciplined in how we grow that and how fast we grow it. Because that's an area that in this decline we've seen pricing decline. And that's maybe an outlier from the rest of our business.

是的。我想說的是，我們希望對如何發展以及發展速度保持高度自律。因為在這種衰退中，我們看到了價格下降的領域。這也許與我們其他的業務不同。

So as that grows, we want to make sure that we capture attractive business and not just capture sales growth. So that drives a little bit on why we're more muted on what the growth rate could be as we want attractive growth.

因此，隨著業務的成長，我們希望確保獲得有吸引力的業務，而不僅僅是獲得銷售成長。所以這在一定程度上解釋了為什麼我們對成長率更加謹慎，因為我們想要有吸引力的成長。

Understood. That's helpful color. Thank you.

明白了。這是很有幫助的顏色。謝謝。

Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

瑞穗的布雷特‧林澤 (Brett Linzey)。

Hey, good morning, all. Wanted to come back to the large meter and the AMI project roll-offs that you noted in the release. Can you frame the size of the exit backlog in terms of months or weeks? And then was the softness more a comparison issue? Or have you actually seen the inbound orders in those larger meter AMI slow commensurately with the decline in sales?

嘿，大家早安。想要回到您在發布中提到的大型儀表和 AMI 專案滾動發布問題。您能否以月或週為單位來估算退出積壓的規模？那麼柔軟度是否更多的是比較問題？或者您是否實際看到那些較大儀表 AMI 中的入站訂單量隨著銷售額的下降而相應減少？

Yeah. I mean, I think if you thought about the comp, I think you basically need to start backfilling the orders. And so you can see what's out there, what RFPs are coming. And so we can just see that there's going to be a first quarter that's kind of feels and looks a lot like the fourth quarter. And then with the visibility that we think we have, Brett, it feels like the balance of the year can start to improve from there.

是的。我的意思是，我認為如果你考慮過補償，那麼你基本上需要開始補充訂單。這樣你就可以看到那裡有什麼，有哪些 RFP 即將到來。因此我們可以看到，第一季的感覺和外表與第四季非常相似。然後，布雷特，憑藉我們認為已經擁有的可見性，感覺今年的平衡可以從此開始改善。

Okay. Great. Got it. And then just a follow-up on the growth and the productivity initiatives within the guide and the bridge, certainly, a bigger figure relative to last year.

好的。偉大的。知道了。然後只是對指南和橋樑內的增長和生產力舉措的後續關注，當然，與去年相比，這一數字更大。

Are you able to parse out that between growth and productivity? And then how do the paybacks look on those investments, and is there any hedge in that? Thanks.

您能分析一下成長和生產力之間的關係嗎？那麼這些投資的回報如何？謝謝。

Yeah. The paybacks on the projects are really good. The growth have slightly better paybacks than the productivities. But even productivities can be kind of in the three years, and there's a mix and balance. And we will continue to make specific go/no-go decisions on specific projects as the year unfolds.

是的。這些項目的回報確實很好。成長的回報比生產力的回報略好一些。但即使是生產力也可以在三年內發生變化，並且存在混合和平衡。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續針對具體項目做出是否進行的具體決定。

So I wouldn't want to give you a mix right now because it could change once we greenlight. In other words, we have more projects on the board than we do. But we're very happy with the returns. It's a good use of capital for us, for sure.

所以我現在不想給你一個混合版本，因為一旦我們批准，它可能會改變。換句話說，我們董事會列出的項目比我們實際擁有的項目還要多。但我們對回報感到非常滿意。對我們來說，這無疑是一種很好的資本運用方式。

Okay. Thanks for the detail.

好的。謝謝你的詳細說明。

Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

查德·迪拉德，伯恩斯坦。

Hi. Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my question.

你好。大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。

Good morning.

早安.

So my question is on the telecoms business. So I'm just trying to get a sense for how much margin pressure you've seen since that business was, I guess, at its height? And then, I guess, like what are your thoughts on potentially rightsizing the business versus keeping scale to capture incremental growth?

我的問題是關於電信業務的。所以，我只是想了解一下，自從這項業務達到頂峰以來，您所面臨的利潤壓力有多大？然後，我想，您對潛在調整業務規模與保持規模以實現增量成長有何看法？

Yeah. I would say at its height, the margins were at the high end of our portfolio. Now they're still attractive, and we have been rightsizing throughout 2024. And so we feel where we sit at this split second is rightsized. And we're looking forward to, as that volume comes back, being able to grow off of our current base, which is a substantially lower cost structure than we started the year with.

是的。我想說，在其巔峰時期，利潤率處於我們投資組合的最高水準。現在它們仍然具有吸引力，而且我們在 2024 年一直在進行適當規模的調整。因此我們感覺此刻我們所處的位置是合適的。我們期待著，隨著銷售量的回升，我們能夠在現有基礎上實現成長，而目前的成本結構比今年年初要低得多。

Yes. It's actually -- and it's constructive to what I said that our goal is not to grow it right back to what it was. And we've been very deliberate with our businesses to say scale the business back down to the current volume.

是的。事實上——而且這對我所說的話是有建設性的，我們的目標不是讓它恢復到原來的狀態。我們一直非常謹慎地對待我們的業務，將業務規模縮減至目前的規模。

Because otherwise, what happens, you get destroyed in your decrementals from (inaudible) if you have all that fixed cost. So what you're alluding to is exactly what we've done with that business to now be able to grow it profitable and be selective in what we go without the pressure of sitting on a ton of idle capacity.

因為否則，如果您擁有所有固定成本，那麼您將在（聽不清楚）的遞減中被摧毀。所以，您所暗示的正是我們對該業務所做的，使我們現在可以實現盈利增長，並且可以選擇性地開展業務，而不必承受大量閒置產能的壓力。

Got it. And I want to go back to a prior question on price. I think you mentioned that the pricing for the entire portfolio was less than 1% overall. Just want to confirm, was that a 4Q comment, or was that more about 2025?

知道了。我想回到之前關於價格的問題。我記得您曾提到整個投資組合的定價整體不到 1%。只是想確認一下，這是關於第四季的評論，還是更多關於 2025 年的評論？

And then secondly, I was hoping you could comment on the breadth of positive price that you're seeing across your portfolio. I'm just trying to understand like how concentrated pricing tailwind is across the portfolio.

其次，我希望您能評論一下您在投資組合中看到的正價格的廣度。我只是想了解定價順風在整個投資組合中的集中程度。

Yeah, Chad, 4Q price was a little bit more than 1 point overall and a little bit more in Electrical than Utility. And I think broadly, we're seeing favorable price across the portfolio with the exception of the telecom markets, which we've been talking about. So it's really just concentrated in that one area.

是的，查德，第四季度的價格總體上略高於 1 個點，電力方面的價格比公用事業方面的價格略高。我認為，總體而言，除了我們一直在談論的電信市場之外，整個投資組合的價格都很有利。所以它實際上只是集中在那一個區域。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. And that concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Dan for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給丹，請他做最後發言。

Great. Thanks, everybody. Thanks for joining us, and I'll be around all day for follow-ups. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝大家。感謝您的加入，我會一整天關注後續動態。謝謝。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

感謝您參加今天的會議。該計劃確實結束了。您現在可以斷開連線。祝大家有個愉快的一天。