Hubbell Inc (HUBB) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and welcome to Hubbell's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    您好,歡迎參加 Hubbell 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Innamorato. You may begin.

    現在我想將會議交給 Dan Innamorato。你可以開始了。

  • Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

    Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

  • Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release announcing our results for the second quarter of 2025. The press release and slides are posted to the Investors section of our website at hubbell.com. Joined today by our Chairman, President and CEO, Gerben Bakker; our Executive Vice President and CFO, Bill Sperry.

    謝謝,接線生。大家早安,感謝大家的收看。今天早些時候,我們發布了一份新聞稿,宣布了 2025 年第二季的業績。新聞稿和幻燈片已發佈於我們網站 hubbell.com 的「投資者」板塊。今天,我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Gerben Bakker 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Bill Sperry 也出席了這場活動。

  • Please note our comments this morning may include statements related to the expected future results of our company. These are forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Please note the discussion of forward-looking statements in our press release and considered incorporated by reference into this call.

    請注意,我們今天早上的評論可能包括與我們公司預期未來業績相關的聲明。這些是 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案所定義的前瞻性陳述。請注意我們新聞稿中對前瞻性陳述的討論,並認為這些前瞻性陳述已納入本次電話會議的參考。

  • Additionally, comments may also include non-GAAP financial measures. Those measures are reconciled to the comparable GAAP measures, which are included in the press release and slides.

    此外,評論還可能包括非公認會計準則財務指標。這些指標與新聞稿和幻燈片中包含的可比較 GAAP 指標相一致。

  • Now let me turn the call over to Gerben.

    現在讓我把電話轉給 Gerben。

  • Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Dan. Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss Hubbell's second quarter 2025 results. Hubbell delivered double- digit adjusted earnings per share growth in the second quarter, driven by strong organic growth in grid infrastructure and electrical solutions as well as year-over-year adjusted operating margin expansion of 120 basis points.

    謝謝,丹。早安,感謝您加入我們討論 Hubbell 2025 年第二季的業績。受電網基礎設施和電力解決方案強勁的有機增長以及同比調整後營業利潤率擴大 120 個基點的推動,Hubbell 在第二季度實現了兩位數的調整後每股收益增長。

  • We are raising our full year outlook today, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver attractive financial performance for our shareholders over the near and long term. As detailed in this morning's press release, our results and outlook this morning are presented on a FIFO basis. Bill will provide you with some additional details in a few minutes, but this transition enables a greater consistency of cost accounting method across our businesses, and better matching of expense and revenue recognition, particularly during inflationary periods.

    我們今天上調了全年業績預期,並且我們仍然有信心在近期和長期內為股東帶來具有吸引力的財務業績。正如今天早上的新聞稿中所述,我們今天早上的結果和展望是按照先進先出 (FIFO) 的方式呈現的。比爾將在幾分鐘內為您提供一些額外的細節,但這種轉變使我們整個業務的成本會計方法更加一致,並且更好地匹配費用和收入確認,特別是在通貨膨脹時期。

  • While raw material inflation and tariffs are driving incremental cost inflation relative to our initial outlook, you will see throughout today's presentation that we have been proactive in driving price and productivity across our portfolio, and we are well positioned to achieve positive price/cost productivity in 2025. In utility solutions, performance in the quarter was highlighted by 7% organic growth in grid infrastructure.

    雖然原物料通膨和關稅相對於我們最初的預期正在推動成本增量通膨,但您將在今天的演示中看到,我們一直積極推動整個產品組合的價格和生產力,並且我們已準備好在 2025 年實現正價格/成本生產率。在公用事業解決方案方面,本季業績的亮點是電網基礎設施 7% 的有機成長。

  • Transmission and substation markets remain strong as our utility customers invest to interconnect new sources of load and generation on the grid. And distribution markets returned to growth as the recent customer inventory normalization cycle has run its course, and our sales growth in the quarter recoupled to reflect solid end market demand driven by grid hardening.

    隨著我們的公用事業客戶投資將新的負載源和發電源連接到電網,輸電和變電站市場仍然保持強勁。隨著近期客戶庫存正常化週期的結束,分銷市場恢復成長,本季我們的銷售成長重新調整,以反映電網強化推動的強勁終端市場需求。

  • Grid infrastructure orders remained strong, up high teens year-over-year in the first half and supporting our expectation for strong organic growth in the second half. While grid automation performance was weaker than anticipated, strong growth in our higher- margin T&D components product categories drove favorable mix dynamics in the quarter.

    電網基礎設施訂單保持強勁,上半年年增百分之十幾,支持了我們對下半年強勁有機成長的預期。雖然電網自動化表現弱於預期,但我們利潤率較高的輸配電組件產品類別的強勁成長推動了本季有利的組合動態。

  • In electrical solutions, we delivered mid-single-digit organic growth with continued adjusted operating margin expansion and 9% adjusted operating profit growth. Our segment unification efforts and our strategy to compete collectively are driving outgrowth in key vertical markets, most notably evidenced by strong data center growth in the second quarter.

    在電氣解決方案方面,我們實現了中等個位數的自然成長,調整後營業利潤率持續擴大,調整後營業利潤成長 9%。我們的分部統一努力和集體競爭策略正在推動主要垂直市場的成長,最明顯的是第二季資料中心的強勁成長。

  • From an operational standpoint, we continue to simplify our business to drive productivity and operating efficiencies, which we are confident will drive long-term margin expansion. While the macroeconomic and inflationary environments remain dynamic, Hubbell is well positioned in attractive markets with a leading portfolio of brands, and we are proactively managing our cost structure and pricing actions to drive continued profitable growth.

    從營運的角度來看,我們繼續簡化業務以提高生產力和營運效率,我們相信這將推動長期利潤率的成長。儘管宏觀經濟和通膨環境依然充滿活力,但 Hubbell 憑藉領先的品牌組合在具有吸引力的市場中佔據了有利地位,並且我們正在積極管理我們的成本結構和定價行動,以推動持續的盈利增長。

  • Now let me turn the call over to Bill to provide some more details on our financial results.

    現在,讓我將電話轉給比爾,讓他提供有關我們財務表現的更多細節。

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Gerb, and welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us. And maybe before my comments, if I maybe just offer a personal note of support. Any of you who are in Midtown yesterday, a rifle being discharged at Park Avenue 52nd Street is a pretty disturbing day. And I just hope you and your people are all okay.

    謝謝,Gerb,歡迎大家。感謝您加入我們。在我發表評論之前,我是否可以先表達個人支持。對於昨天在市中心的人來說,在公園大道 52 街發生槍擊事件是相當令人不安的一天。我只希望你和你的家人一切都好。

  • So I'm going to start my comments on page 4 of the slides that you hopefully have found and start with our adoption of a unified FIFO-based inventory accounting standard. Our previous state had been roughly in very rough terms, half LIFO, half FIFO. That was really just an outcome of companies we had bought or companies we had sold.

    因此,我將從投影片的第 4 頁開始我的評論(希望您已經找到了),並從我們採用統一的基於 FIFO 的庫存會計標準開始。我們以前的狀態大致是,一半是後進先出,一半是先進先出。這實際上只是我們收購或出售公司的結果。

  • We just brought them on in their prior standards, and we thought this was a good time to make the effort to harmonize that with maybe three specific benefits. The first being running the company under a single methodology, I think allows us to simplify our business reviews and have everybody running the same way. I think secondly, in an inflationary environment because of the fact that our pricing typically takes about a quarter to get into the revenue stream, we find this creates a better match of the timing of when new higher costs are recognized and when those new prices are recognized.

    我們只是將它們引入了先前的標準,我們認為這是努力將其與三個具體優勢相協調的好時機。首先,我認為採用單一方法經營公司,可以簡化我們的業務審查,讓每個人都以相同的方式運作。我認為其次,在通貨膨脹的環境下,由於我們的定價通常需要大約一個季度的時間才能進入收入流,我們發現這可以更好地匹配確認新的更高成本的時間和確認這些新價格的時間。

  • So previously, we created a distorting lag and asked you to be patient, and I think now we can offer you a more accurate recognition of our margin in the quarter that it's happening. And I think third, I'm hoping it puts us from your perspective on the same footing as our reporting peers. So hopefully make it easier for you all to make comparisons and contrasts and better judgment.

    因此,之前我們創建了一個扭曲的滯後並要求您耐心等待,我認為現在我們可以為您提供更準確的本季利潤率識別。第三,我希望它能讓我們與我們的報道同行處於同等地位。所以希望這能讓大家更容易進行比較和對比並做出更好的判斷。

  • So obviously, none of this destroys or creates profits during a cycle. It's just the timing of when the expenses are recognized. So the implications you can see on the right-hand side of the page was a $29 million decrease in COGS in the second quarter and a $20 million decrease in COGS for the first half. So you see the impact on first half of '25 was about $0.30, and that's equivalent to the range in guidance that we've made and that Gerben is going to talk about more at the end of the conversation.

    因此顯然,在一個週期內,這些都不會破壞或創造利潤。這只是確認費用的時間而已。因此,您可以在頁面右側看到的影響是第二季度的 COGS 減少了 2900 萬美元,上半年的 COGS 減少了 2000 萬美元。因此,您會看到對 25 年上半年的影響約為 0.30 美元,這相當於我們制定的指導範圍,Gerben 將在對話結束時詳細討論。

  • The other implication is accelerate some tax payments to be made over the next several years, and interestingly, those payments will be more than offset by what we're expecting to be cash benefits from the new Big Beautiful Bill Tax legislation that was recently passed in early July. So all of this, we just wanted to remind on the bottom of the page.

    另一個影響是加速未來幾年的一些稅收支付,有趣的是,這些支付將被我們預期的 7 月初通過的新《大美麗法案》稅收法案所帶來的現金收益所抵消。因此,我們只是想在頁面底部提醒這一切。

  • We feel the obligation to continue to put out a high-quality reporting framework. We think a more harmonized standard continues to contribute to that, and we're just calling out here, reminding everybody that we do things like fully burden our segments with corporate costs. We include restructuring costs in our results because we feel they're an important part of our ongoing performance, and we as well recognize the benefit.

    我們感到有義務繼續推出高品質的報告架構。我們認為更統一的標準將繼續促進這一進程,我們只是在這裡呼籲,提醒大家,我們所做的事情包括讓我們的部門完全承擔企業成本。我們將重組成本納入我們的業績中,因為我們認為它們是我們持續業績的重要組成部分,我們也認識到它的好處。

  • So enough, hopefully, on accounting. So turning to the performance. I'm on page 5. Our sales were up in the quarter 2% to just under $1.5 billion. There was general strength in our electrical segment, and in the utility side, the strength was on the grid infrastructure area, and in grid automation, we had a weak quarter of double-digit contraction.

    關於會計,希望到此為止。那麼,談談表演吧。我在第 5 頁。本季我們的銷售額成長了 2%,達到近 15 億美元。我們的電力部門整體表現強勁,在公用事業方面,實力體現在電網基礎設施領域,而在電網自動化方面,我們經歷了一個疲軟的季度,出現了兩位數的萎縮。

  • If you put the electrical segment and the infrastructure side together, you'd have a mid-single-digit growth rate and that grid automation piece providing a couple of point drag to the overall sales results. Second column, you see adjusted operating profit. The dollar is up 8% in the quarter to $362 million, and the margins widened by 120 basis points to 24.4%. If we talked about the drivers there.

    如果將電力部門和基礎設施部門合併在一起,就會得到中等個位數的成長率,而電網自動化部分會對整體銷售業績造成幾個百分點的拖累。第二列,您可以看到調整後的營業利潤。本季美元上漲 8%,達到 3.62 億美元,利潤率擴大 120 個基點,達到 24.4%。如果我們談論那裡的司機。

  • Interestingly, we tend not to talk about mix very frequently with you all, but it so happens that the area of contraction in grid automation and Aclara is towards the lower end of the spectrum of our margin of our portfolio versus the areas of growth, namely Burndy and grounding and connectors and T&D area of utility happen to be quite high margin areas.

    有趣的是,我們通常不會經常與大家談論混合,但事實是,電網自動化和 Aclara 的收縮領域處於我們投資組合利潤率的低端,而增長領域,即 Burndy 和接地和連接器以及公用事業的 T&D 領域恰好是利潤率相當高的領域。

  • And so there is to just the market growth, just a natural mix benefit. As well, we continue to manage price cost very well and as well the FIFO impact as we discussed on the previous page. The third column there is adjusted earnings per share. You see grew on a dollar basis 11% to $4.93 outgrowing the operating profit growth with some non-op tailwinds. Last year's tax rate was a little bit higher.

    因此,這只是市場成長,是一種自然的混合效益。同樣,我們繼續很好地管理價格成本以及上一頁討論過的 FIFO 影響。第三列是調整後的每股盈餘。您可以看到,以美元計算,其增長了 11%,達到 4.93 美元,在一些非營運順風因素的推動下,其增長超過了營業利潤的增長。去年的稅率稍微高一點。

  • And I think as we've been talking about with you all during the first half of the year, we bought some shares, about $225 million of share repurchases. So that creates a little bit of non-op lift as well. And on the fourth column, you have the free cash flow, good growth in the quarter. And importantly, we feel continuing to track to the 90% conversion that we're targeting to achieve through the operating year of 2025.

    我想,正如我們在今年上半年與大家討論的那樣,我們買了一些股票,約 2.25 億美元的股票回購。因此這也會產生一點非操作升力。第四列顯示的是自由現金流,本季成長良好。重要的是,我們感覺我們將繼續追蹤到 2025 年營運年度實現的 90% 的轉換率。

  • So let's disaggregate the enterprise results into the two segments. And on page 6, we'll start with utility. You see 1% growth there to $936 million, all of that growth being organic. That unpacks into the two pieces. One is the grid infrastructure, the more hardware side of the business. That's about 3/4 of the segment, and you see 7% growth there, and that disaggregates into double-digit growth in transmission and substation, continued very healthy demand there.

    因此,讓我們將企業績效分為兩個部分。在第 6 頁,我們將從實用性開始。您會看到其增長了 1%,達到 9.36 億美元,而且全部都是有機增長。將其分解為兩部分。一個是電網基礎設施,這是業務的更多硬體方面。這大約佔該部分的 3/4,你會看到那裡的增長率為 7%,這分解為輸電和變電站的兩位數增長,那裡的需求持續非常健康。

  • And the distribution side, that last mile connecting to the house or the billing growing at a mid-single-digit rate of sales. Important to note that year-to-date, our orders are up high teens in this area. And I mentioned that importantly, when Gerben gets to our guidance and our outlook for the balance of the year, certainly, that order book is influencing very heavily how we think about providing you guys guidance here at the halfway point.

    而在分銷方面,連接到房屋或帳單的最後一英里的銷售額以中等個位數的速度增長。值得注意的是,今年迄今為止,我們在該地區的訂單量已大幅增加。我提到,重要的是,當 Gerben 獲得我們的指導和對今年餘額的展望時,訂單簿無疑會極大地影響我們如何考慮在中期為你們提供指導。

  • So I think we continue to see the trends of grid modernization and electrification alive and well, very good news. I think additional good news and quite noteworthy to see that as the distribution products grew, we can say that the channel destock has concluded. I'm sure you are as happy as I am to not have us discuss that any longer with you all. So that feels good to emerge from that.

    因此我認為我們繼續看到電網現代化和電氣化的趨勢蓬勃發展,這是非常好的消息。我認為還有更多好消息,而且非常值得注意的是,隨著分銷產品的成長,我們可以說通路去庫存已經結束。我確信你們和我一樣高興我們不再與你們討論這個問題。因此,從中走出來感覺很好。

  • Grid automation at a 13% contraction, about of the quarter of the total segment. We've had some roll-off of large projects that were not backfilled, and we really have the situation where we have been coming out of a heavy backlog year that was created when the chips weren't available the year prior to that. And so we've had some erratic comparisons to be made.

    電網自動化萎縮了13%,約佔整個產業的四分之一。我們有一些大型項目沒有被填補,我們確實面臨這樣的情況:我們已經擺脫了去年晶片無法供應而造成的大量積壓訂單。因此,我們進行了一些不確定的比較。

  • And I think when we get to the outlook, we'll talk a little bit more about, I think, how grid automation feels to be in a stable and growing environment finally. On the operating profit side, on the right-hand side of the page, you see the dollars grow by 7% to $239 million in the quarter. Margins up 140 basis points, driven by continued price realization, managing price cost quite effectively.

    我認為,當我們談到前景時,我們會更多地談論電網自動化最終在穩定和增長的環境中會有什麼感受。在頁面右側的營業利潤方面,您可以看到本季的美元成長了 7%,達到 2.39 億美元。利潤率上漲 140 個基點,受持續價格實現的推動,價格成本管理相當有效。

  • Again, good mix there between the infrastructure growth and the grid automation contraction. So solid bottom line performance for that segment and good growth trends inside the core piece of grid infrastructure. We'll talk about electrical segment on page 7. We see a solid quarter turned in by the segment, 4% sales growth to $545 million.

    再次,基礎設施成長和電網自動化收縮之間實現了良好的結合。因此,該部門的底線業績穩健,電網基礎設施核心部分的成長趨勢良好。我們將在第 7 頁討論電氣部分。我們看到該部門本季表現穩健,銷售額成長 4%,達到 5.45 億美元。

  • Largely organic, but there was a small contribution from the Ventev acquisition, which you'll remember, which is wireless infrastructure products. As we think about driving that mid-single-digit growth, data centers continues to be a very significant contributor to our balance of systems product portfolio that's exposed there. The light industrial markets were very strong for us for our connectors and grounding products.

    很大程度上是有機成長,但收購 Ventev 也做出了小幅貢獻,你會記得,Ventev 是無線基礎設施產品。當我們考慮推動中位數個位數成長時,資料中心繼續成為我們在那裡展示的系統產品組合平衡的重要貢獻者。對於我們的連接器和接地產品來說,輕工業市場非常強勁。

  • Heavy industrial, certainly more mixed than nonres, a little bit soft. As you look to the right side of the page on the operating profit, 9% growth in dollars to $124 million, margins up 1 point to 22.5%, they are dropping through incremental's on their volume, managing price cost and they continue to push productivity. So I think you all remember Mark Mikes leading this segment, doing a good job on competing collectively on the top side, working around some sales force realignments that we think have been successful in vertical market selling and cross-selling and continuing to work some channel conversions and on the cost side, continuing to become more and more efficient as we create a real segment rather than a series of vertical businesses.

    重工業,肯定比非工業更混合,有點軟。如您在頁面右側看到的,營業利潤增長了 9%,達到 1.24 億美元,利潤率上升了 1 個百分點,達到 22.5%,他們正在通過增量來降低產量,管理價格成本,並繼續提高生產力。所以我想大家都記得馬克·邁克斯領導這個部門,他在高層集體競爭方面做得很好,圍繞一些我們認為在垂直市場銷售和交叉銷售方面取得成功的銷售隊伍調整,並繼續進行一些渠道轉換和成本方面,隨著我們創建一個真正的部門而不是一系列垂直業務,我們繼續變得越來越有效率。

  • So what I think Mark is pulling off here and his team is consistent multiyear momentum in the electrical segment and we see it continuing to grind upwards and improve. And we're very pleased with his results and I think he's got still years to go on that improvement side. On page 8, I'm going to talk about the markets as a setup, and Gerben is going to come back and talk about our outlook and guidance and kind of have these market perspectives maybe as input into the top line of his guidance comments that he'll share.

    因此,我認為馬克和他的團隊在電氣領域取得了多年的持續發展勢頭,我們看到它將繼續向上發展並不斷改進。我們對他的成績非常滿意,我認為他在這方面還有很長的路要走。在第 8 頁,我將討論市場設置,然後 Gerben 會回來討論我們的展望和指導,並將這些市場觀點作為他將分享的指導意見的首行輸入。

  • So what you see in the inside of both of the circles is roughly 4% to 6% organic sales growth. It's roughly equal between the segments and it's roughly equal contributions from price and volume, though, a little bit price skewed versus volume skewed there. And so if we start with electrical on the right, we think the second half will be quite similar to the first half.

    因此,您在兩個圓圈內看到的是大約 4% 到 6% 的有機銷售額成長。各部分之間的差異大致相等,價格和銷售的貢獻也大致相等,不過價格略有偏差,銷售量略有偏差。因此,如果我們從右側的電氣開始,我們認為後半部分將與前半部分非常相似。

  • You'll see from around 10:00 to around 3:00 there in the circle. We're a little more cautious around heavy industrial and nonres, contemplating flat contributions for the year. But as you work down, you start to see light industrial, renewables, you're seeing low and mid-single-digit contributions. Clearly, the star of the show continues to be data centers, and we're anticipating 30% growth there.

    您會在圓圈內看到從大約 10:00 到大約 3:00 的時間。我們對重工業和非房地產行業持更謹慎的態度,預計全年貢獻將保持穩定。但隨著你往下看,你開始看到輕工業、再生能源,你會看到低和中等個位數的貢獻。顯然,展會的明星仍然是數據中心,我們預計該行業的成長率將達到 30%。

  • On the left side, you've got our utility markets, and what you see from about 10:00 to 4:00, you see the grid protection and the electrical distribution, high singles and mid-singles. Again, I'll just note that electrical distribution of mid-singles, it maybe looks modest next to the transmission and substation, but that is an inflection, just to remind us, coming off of its destocking. And so that's quite good for us to see that rebounding.

    左側是我們的公用事業市場,從大約 10:00 到 4:00,您可以看到電網保護和電力分配、高單打和中單打。再次,我只想指出,中單的電力分配,在輸電和變電站旁邊可能看起來很適中,但這是一個拐點,只是為了提醒我們,它正在擺脫去庫存的困境。因此,看到經濟反彈對我們來說是件好事。

  • The mid- and high teens performance of substation and transmission markets we just see continued strength there. Our positioning is very good, and I think our sales growth is going to continue to be strong. Telecom is worth mentioning as another inflection point. I think you all recall us going through last year with some significant contractions there in the enclosures business driven by telecoms.

    我們看到變電站和輸電市場中高水準的表現持續強勁。我們的定位非常好,我認為我們的銷售成長將繼續強勁。值得一提的是電信業是另一個轉捩點。我想大家都記得,去年我們經歷了電信業推動的外殼業務的大幅萎縮。

  • And again, quite encouraging to see them finish out any of the overstocking situation plus potentially any market weakness that was combining with that to return to growth. So that's quite good. You see the Aclara piece of meters and AMI down 20%. And I think that's worth maybe some comments clearly, the large projects and a lot of the backlog that we were fulfilling from, -- that point in time when in the previous year, the chips have become unavailable, it was difficult for us to ship.

    再次,看到他們擺脫庫存過剩的局面以及潛在的市場疲軟並恢復成長,這令人非常鼓舞。這非常好。您會看到 Aclara 的儀表和 AMI 下降了 20%。我認為這也許值得一些評論,很明顯,大型專案和我們正在完成的大量積壓工作——在去年那個時候,晶片已經不可用,我們很難發貨。

  • Those got fulfilled and created quite a difficult compare for last year. We've, in response, managed cost, really working to moderate the decrementals there. And I think if I were to describe the position that Aclara is in, I would say the last three quarters have been quite flat sequentially. We think that's a -- we're kind of down to that stable base of smaller projects, MRO, good business with muni and co-ops and the more public utilities.

    這些都已實現,與去年相比,相當困難。作為回應,我們管理了成本,並真正努力緩和那裡的遞減。如果要我描述一下 Aclara 的現狀,我想說的是,過去三個季度 Aclara 的表現環比持平。我們認為,我們已經擁有了由小型專案、MRO、與市政和合作社以及更多公共事業的良好業務往來的穩定基礎。

  • And we think we're expecting that in the fourth quarter Aclara will return to growth and be able to have a steadier operation moving forward as we sort of absorbed this reaction to that heavy backlog here in the prior year.

    我們認為,我們預計 Aclara 將在第四季度恢復成長,並能夠實現更穩定的運營,因為我們已經吸收了去年大量積壓訂單帶來的反應。

  • So with those pieces, I'm going to turn it to Gerben and have him synthesize that into our outlook for you.

    因此,我將把這些內容交給 Gerben,讓他將其綜合到我們對您的展望中。

  • Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Great. Thanks, Bill. We are raising our full year adjusted earnings per share outlook to a range of $17.65 to $18.15. This represents a raise of $0.30 at both the low and high end of our prior outlook range. We anticipate 4% to 6% organic growth and full year adjusted operating margin expansion to drive high single-digit adjusted earnings per share growth at the midpoint of our range.

    偉大的。謝謝,比爾。我們將全年調整後每股盈餘預期上調至17.65美元至18.15美元之間。這意味著,我們先前預期區間的低端和高端均上調了0.30美元。我們預計有機成長率為 4% 至 6%,全年調整後營業利潤率將擴大,從而推動每股收益調整後達到我們預期範圍中點的高個位數成長。

  • This outlook is consistent with our long-term financial framework, which we believe will deliver differentiated returns for our shareholders over time. We are confident in our ability to navigate through near-term macroeconomic and inflationary uncertainties to deliver on these increased financial commitments in 2025. We are seeing strong evidence of secular growth megatrends in the largest, highest margin areas of our portfolio, which we believe will underpin strong performance in the second half of 2025 and over the next several years.

    這一前景與我們的長期財務框架一致,我們相信,隨著時間的推移,這將為我們的股東帶來差異化的回報。我們有信心,我們有能力克服近期宏觀經濟和通膨的不確定性,並在 2025 年兌現這些增加的財務承諾。我們看到,我們投資組合中規模最大、利潤率最高的領域出現了長期成長大趨勢的有力證據,我們相信這將支撐 2025 年下半年及未來幾年的強勁表現。

  • We are confident that Hubbell's unique leading positions at the intersection of grid modernization and electrification, combined with structural opportunities in our operating model and capital deployment potential will continue to drive long-term shareholder value creation.

    我們相信,Hubbell 在電網現代化和電氣化交叉領域的獨特領先地位,加上我們營運模式中的結構性機會和資本配置潛力,將繼續推動長期股東價值創造。

  • With that, let me turn the call over to Q&A.

    說完這些,讓我將電話轉入問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Jeffrey Sprague, Vertical Research Partners.

    (操作員指示) Jeffrey Sprague,Vertical Research Partners。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • Just on electrical distribution, the return to mid-single-digit growth. I'm just wondering if that is your view of what the underlying market is growing. And we should view that as sort of a steady-state growth rate from here? Or do, in fact, you think even though you're not talking about inventory in the channel, it still might be an issue and it's perhaps muting the growth rate. So you grew through it this quarter, right? But the question is, mid-single-digit growth really kind of the sustainable growth rate from here?

    僅就電力分配而言,就恢復到中等個位數成長。我只是想知道這是否是您對基礎市場成長的看法。那麼從現在起,我們應該將其視為一種穩定的成長率嗎?或者,事實上,您是否認為即使您沒有談論渠道中的庫存,它仍然可能是一個問題,並且可能會抑制增長率。所以這個季度你取得了進步,對嗎?但問題是,中等個位數的成長真的是可持續的成長率嗎?

  • Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, Jeff, maybe I'll start with it. I think the short answer is yes. Mid-single digit is the underlying growth rate, what we see reflected of end user demand is what they're actually hanging on the infrastructure. It does improve on the second half, though, based on just easier comps, right, compared to last year. But yes, we believe fundamentally, longer term, this is a mid-single-digit growth area with a combination of MRO replacement and grid hardening.

    是的,傑夫,也許我應該從它開始。我認為簡短的回答是肯定的。中等個位數是潛在的成長率,我們看到的反映最終用戶需求的是他們實際上依賴的基礎設施。不過,與去年相比,下半年的情況確實有所改善,因為比較容易比較。但是的,我們從根本上相信,從長遠來看,這是一個中等個位數成長領域,結合了 MRO 替換和電網強化。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • And then on the return of growth in Aclara in the fourth quarter, I guess that would also mostly just be a comp issue. Putting aside comps, do you actually see a pickup in activity there, project or otherwise that would create a situation where we could expect some growth out of that business in 2026?

    關於 Aclara 在第四季恢復成長,我想這也主要是一個競爭問題。拋開同類產品不談,您是否真的看到那裡的活動、項目或其他方面有所回升,從而我們可以預期 2026 年該業務會有所增長?

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Jeff, the trajectory in the last few quarters has been quite flat sequentially. So that's the start to get flat. And as you look out and you see pipeline, I think it's not at all unreasonable to think of it as a low single to mid-single-digit growth from this kind of new lower base.

    是的,傑夫,過去幾季的軌跡一直比較平穩。這就是開始變得平坦的過程。當你觀察管道時,我認為,從這種新的較低基數來看,將其視為低個位數到中等個位數的成長是完全合理的。

  • Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

    Jeffrey Sprague - Analyst

  • And just on tariffs, I'm sorry if I missed it, but can you share with us what the tariff impact embedded in your results are, how much pricing you're getting against that? And maybe just a little bit more color on price in the two segments.

    關於關稅,如果我錯過了,我很抱歉,但您能否與我們分享一下關稅對您的結果的影響,以及您獲得的定價是多少?或許這兩個部分的價格會稍微更具體。

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So we got a couple of points of price, Jeff, in the first half. And we are in the second quarter, slightly ahead of tariffs on a price, cost basis. We have expecting more tariffs to hit third quarter and more price to hit. So we feel that we acted pretty early, and we feel that the market kind of accepted those increases based on the tariff logic and that those prices have stuck reasonably well.

    是的。傑夫,我們在上半場獲得了一些積分。我們已進入第二季度,從價格和成本角度來看,關稅略有上升。我們預計第三季將有更多關稅和更多價格上漲。因此,我們認為我們採取的行動相當早,我們認為市場根據關稅邏輯接受了這些增長,並且這些價格保持得相當好。

  • So we're feeling we're feeling good about our ability. There's no question it's a challenging environment and having the regime change quickly and with quite little notice, maybe something being put on and being delayed. But nonetheless, I think we're managing that quite well using price, and we feel we're ahead at this split second.

    所以我們對自己的能力感到滿意。毫無疑問,這是一個充滿挑戰的環境,政權更迭迅速,而且幾乎沒有任何預兆,有些事情可能被擱置或推遲。但儘管如此,我認為我們在價格方面管理得相當好,而且我們覺得我們在這一瞬間處於領先地位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tommy Moll, Stephens.

    湯米·莫爾,史蒂芬斯。

  • Thomas Moll - Analyst

    Thomas Moll - Analyst

  • Wanted to start with a conversation on copper specifically and commodities more broadly. But copper has obviously had a big move here and the question arises, what, if any, impact do you contemplate for this year's earnings? And if I can just make it a two-parter maybe more broadly, where are you exposed versus well covered just in terms of the hedge strategy across all the commodities that would be meaningful here?

    想要先討論銅的具體情況以及更廣泛的商品問題。但銅價顯然出現了大幅波動,問題出現了,您認為這會對今年的收益產生什麼影響(如果有的話)?如果我可以更廣泛地將其分為兩部分,那麼就所有商品的對沖策略而言,您在哪些方面處於暴露狀態,哪些方面處於良好覆蓋狀態,這在這裡很有意義?

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Tommy. So I would say if I answered it backwards, we use the price lever as the way to hedge against commodities and metals. And so we feel not exposed. We actually feel well covered. when we introduced this framework last quarter, we're taking your question about the commodities. And even though we may not be paying tariffs, we were considering that metal inflation to be tariff related because a lot of it was caused by producers being able to take advantage of a price umbrella.

    是的,湯米。所以如果我反過來回答的話,我們會使用價格槓桿來對沖商品和金屬。因此我們感覺沒有受到暴露。我們實際上感覺得到了很好的保障。當我們在上個季度推出這個框架時,我們正在回答您關於商品的問題。儘管我們可能沒有支付關稅,但我們認為金屬價格上漲與關稅有關,因為很大一部分原因是生產商能夠利用價格保護傘。

  • So there's been movements, our exposure is copper, steel, aluminum, all of those. And I hear you on copper, there is maybe some uncertainty going forward, and yet we continue to be confident that we can use price there, Tommy. And we've got very active ongoing dialogue with all of our customers and distributors talking about that, and I think that dialogue is being well informed by analytics and price charts and all of that.

    因此,我們一直在採取行動,我們的風險敞口是銅、鋼、鋁,所有這些。我聽說銅的價格未來可能會有一些不確定性,但我們仍然有信心我們可以在那裡使用價格,湯米。我們與所有客戶和分銷商就此問題進行了非常積極的持續對話,我認為分析、價格圖表等對對話提供了充分的資訊。

  • So I think the raise to guidance, you should assume from us to mean we feel confident that we can cover that kind of inflation with price.

    因此,我認為,提高指導價格,你應該認為這意味著我們有信心用價格來覆蓋這種通貨膨脹。

  • Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Maybe more specifically say, right, if copper is up more recently, if that rebates a fact, it will require additional pricing. But under the new construct of FIFO, we got the time, right? You'll see a delayed impact of that copper cost coming through and it gives us the time to price for it. And I'd say copper is one example, but we continue to see, right?

    是的。也許更具體地說,對的,如果最近銅價上漲,如果回扣成為事實,那就需要額外的定價。但是在 FIFO 的新結構下,我們有時間,對嗎?您會看到銅成本的延遲影響,這給了我們定價的時間。我想說銅就是一個例子,但我們還是會繼續看到,對吧?

  • Whether it's reciprocal tariffs or whether it's steel and aluminum here recently that went up, just a very dynamic environment, and it starts for us on the cost side and what we can do to mitigate these actions. This is supplier negotiation, both of sharing some of this cost or delaying the impact the supplier moves or reshoring, it's trade organizations that we use to help with exemptions.

    無論是互惠關稅,還是最近鋼鐵和鋁的價格上漲,都是一個非常動態的環境,對我們來說,它首先從成本方面開始,我們可以採取哪些措施來減輕這些影響。這是供應商談判,既要分擔部分成本,又要延緩供應商遷移或回流的影響,我們利用貿易組織來幫助獲得豁免。

  • It's just all-out effort, and it's truthfully a responsibility that we have for our customers to offset some of these costs with cost actions and productivity. And then, of course, as well using prices where needed to be price cost neutral. So I would say very dynamic. Copper, for example, is just one of, -- I would say, various areas that we're looking at and proactively managing too.

    這只是全力以赴的努力,事實上,我們有責任為客戶採取成本行動和提高生產力來抵消部分成本。然後,當然,在需要時也使用價格來保持價格成本中立。所以我想說非常有活力。例如,我想說,銅只是我們正在關注並積極管理的眾多領域之一。

  • Thomas Moll - Analyst

    Thomas Moll - Analyst

  • And then for my follow-up question, I wanted to ask on the EPS guidance you provided. There are some moving pieces this quarter. The LIFO, FIFO discussion has gotten sufficient airtime, but also there was the $0.50 contingency or sensitivity from last quarter that's no longer part of the conversation today. So my question is, if you think purely from an operational perspective, would you say things have gotten better, worse, same in terms of the earnings expectations for this year?

    然後,對於我的後續問題,我想詢問您提供的 EPS 指導。本季有一些變動。關於後進先出法和先進先出的討論已經獲得了足夠的時間,但上個季度的 0.50 美元應急費用或敏感性費用已不再是今天討論的內容。所以我的問題是,如果您純粹從營運角度考慮,您認為今年的獲利預期情況會變得更好、更糟還是保持不變?

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I think I would say that we continue to be on track to deliver the operational performance that we had promised at the beginning of the year, Tommy. And I would say that implies overcoming some new costs from tariffs, and it involves overcoming some slightly more challenging first half volumes. So we view that as a bit of an accomplishment operationally to be able to do that. And to your point of removing that contingency, we also feel is good and removing that uncertainty from our investors' expectations.

    是的。我想說的是,我們將繼續按計劃實現我們在年初承諾的營運業績,湯米。我想說,這意味著要克服關稅帶來的一些新成本,還要克服上半年一些更具挑戰性的業務量。因此,我們認為從營運角度來說,能夠做到這一點是一項成就。至於您提到的消除這種偶然性,我們也認為這是一件好事,可以消除投資者預期的不確定性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Toby Okwara, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的托比‧奧克瓦拉 (Toby Okwara)。

  • Toby Okwara - Analyst

    Toby Okwara - Analyst

  • This is Toby Okwara on for Chris. I wanted to ask for a little bit more color around the end markets. I know that data center seems like it's remaining strong. We haven't really seen anything negative there. But any other areas of green shoots that have shown up, particularly on the electrical side?

    我是 Toby Okwara,代替克里斯 (Chris) 演出。我想詢問有關終端市場的更多細節。我知道資料中心看起來仍然很強大。我們確實沒有看到任何負面的事情。但是其他領域是否也出現了復甦的跡象,特別是在電氣方面?

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Certainly, I think for us, green shoots wise this -- we've been talking, I think, for the better part of this year and probably extending into last, how we thought demand was always in reasonably good shape, and yet we were seeing some channel overstocking that was creating us making kind of fewer shipments than was being ultimately installed.

    是的。當然,我認為對我們來說,這是一個好的開始——我認為,我們在今年大部分時間都在談論,可能延續到去年,我們認為需求一直處於相當良好的狀態,但我們看到一些渠道庫存過剩,這導致我們的出貨量少於最終安裝的數量。

  • And so that started for us in wiring device, and that's -- we worked our way through that now fully a year plus ago. It felt like the distribution, that last mile of utility product kind of was still working against us, and we feel really happy to say we think we're through that. So it's not a green shoot in that demand has changed. And it's just a green shoot in the amount of shipments we'll be able to make to replenish the fact that the channel has kind of rightsized itself.

    所以,我們從接線設備開始,到現在已經一年多了,我們已經完成了這項工作。感覺就像分銷,即實用產品的最後一英里仍然對我們不利,我們很高興地說,我們認為我們已經度過了這一關。因此,這並不是需求改變的跡象。這只是我們能夠進行的出貨量的一次小進步,以補充管道已經適當調整的事實。

  • And by channel, I'm extending through a distribution customer to the end Q2. I also would point out the enclosures area where telecom had been creating some static, and we've seen that area revert to growth and year-over-year was flat in the second quarter, but sequentially up from the first quarter. And so we're quite confident that bottomed in Q1.

    透過通路,我將透過分銷客戶延伸至第二季末。我還要指出的是,電信業在封閉領域一直處於停滯狀態,但我們已經看到該領域恢復成長,第二季度同比持平,但環比第一季有所上升。因此,我們非常有信心第一季將觸底。

  • So there are some nice green shoot improvements in our -- where we'll be able to ship, which aren't the exact same as that there's been market inflection, right? It's just the demand needed by the end customers. So we do think things have changed meaningfully here at the midway point of '25.

    因此,我們的產品出現了一些不錯的綠芽改進——我們可以發貨了,這與市場拐點並不完全相同,對吧?這只是最終客戶的需求。因此,我們確實認為,在 25 年中期,情況已經發生了重大變化。

  • Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • And maybe the only thing I would add to that is on the light industrial side of electrical, that's continued to be very resilient with some of the projects, some of the reshoring there with the specific product, the grounding connectors is holding up really nicely.

    也許我唯一想補充的是,在電氣輕工業方面,一些項目繼續保持著很強的彈性,一些特定產品的回流,接地連接器的運作情況非常好。

  • Christopher Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher Snyder - Analyst

  • This is Chris. I wanted to follow up on price. So last quarter, you guys kind of planned for two price increases. I believe the first was in April, and there was a second one that was expected later in the quarter. I'm assuming that second one maybe didn't go through or got pushed out. So can you just kind of remind us on that second price increase? When is it coming? And I guess, how material could it be when we think about the organic guide into the back half?

    這是克里斯。我想跟進價格。所以上個季度,你們計劃進行兩次漲價。我相信第一次是在四月份,第二次預計將在本季稍後舉行。我猜第二個可能沒有通過或被淘汰了。那麼,您能否提醒我們第二次價格上漲的情況?啥時候來啊?我想,當我們考慮後半部的有機指南時,它會有多重要?

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So Chris, you broke up a little, but what we heard was a question about the price that was pulled in the second quarter and was there price pulled maybe towards the middle or end that hasn't yet been seen in shipments, and that is true. I think, -- I might have heard you say, was that price increase delayed? I would say it was not delayed. It was implemented, but it hasn't yet shown up.

    是的。克里斯,你剛才稍微分解了一下,但我們聽到的是一個關於第二季度價格下調的問題,價格是否可能在中間或末端被拉高,而這在出貨量中還沒有看到,這是真的。我想──我可能聽到您說過,漲價是延後了嗎?我想說它沒有被延遲。它已經實施,但尚未顯現。

  • So the two points of price that we're seeing in the second quarter should actually grow incrementally in the second half due to the phenomenon that you're describing.

    因此,由於您所描述的現象,我們在第二季度看到的兩個價格點實際上應該在下半年逐步成長。

  • Christopher Snyder - Analyst

    Christopher Snyder - Analyst

  • And just any -- could you kind of tell us like where that price ultimately will go to in Q4 as we look out about a fully realized basis?

    而且,當我們專注於完全實現的基礎時,您能否告訴我們第四季的價格最終會達到什麼水平?

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. I mean I think -- so we're describing 4% to 6% of sales in the full year. We're anticipating maybe 3 points of price in the full year with two in the first half, and that's kind of the construct, Chris, that we've got.

    是的。我的意思是我認為——所以我們描述的是全年銷售額的 4% 到 6%。我們預計全年價格可能會上漲 3 個點,其中上半年上漲 2 個點,克里斯,這就是我們的設想。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • I think my first question, I just wanted to understand better perhaps the moving parts around operating margin expansion in the second half. It looks like there's not much of an expansion, I think, year-on-year dialed in, and that's presumably that sort of FIFO-related tariff hit coming through.

    我想我的第一個問題只是想更了解下半年營業利潤率擴張的動態因素。我認為,看起來,年比來看,擴張幅度並不大,這可能是與先進先出 (FIFO) 相關的關稅衝擊造成的。

  • But just wondered if you could confirm that. And is the -- sort of when thinking about Q3 versus Q4 dynamics, anything to call out there? I noticed R&R spend a bit higher in Q3. So should we expect a sort of better year-on-year margin performance in the fourth quarter because of price and less R&R spend?

    但我只是想知道您是否可以證實這一點。當考慮第三季與第四季的動態時,有什麼需要注意的嗎?我注意到第三季的 R&R 支出略高一些。那麼,由於價格上漲和研發支出減少,我們是否應該預期第四季的利潤率年比表現會好一些?

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Julian, that's -- you made a number of good points. And first of all, we are expecting our mix to continue to be favorable in the second half. We are anticipating, as you mentioned, several things you mentioned. One is the -- some of those tariff costs coming through, being offset by price dollar for dollar. Unfortunately, that's not always -- that's not margin friendly, it's OP neutral, but not margin friendly.

    是的,朱利安,你提出了很多很好的觀點。首先,我們預計下半年我們的組合將繼續保持良好勢頭。正如您所說,我們期待您提到的幾件事。一是——部分關稅成本透過一美元對一美元的價格來抵銷。不幸的是,情況並非總是如此——這對保證金並不友好,它對 OP 是中性的,但對保證金並不友好。

  • And thirdly, we are anticipating some extra investing in the third quarter, both in restructuring and other investment areas. So you actually called out a number of the drivers there. And your -- I agree with your analysis, is exactly how I see it.

    第三,我們預計第三季將在重組和其他投資領域進行一些額外投資。所以你實際上已經叫出了那裡的一些司機。我同意你的分析,這正是我的看法。

  • Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. It's actually a very good representation of exactly what's going to happen. Maybe the only point I'd make a comment on is on the investment because clearly, we're very, very focused on our cost to manage through this dynamic environment. But I'd also say we're not losing focus on our long-term needs and ambitions and the investments that we're making.

    是的。它實際上很好地描述了即將發生的事情。也許我唯一想評論的一點是關於投資,因為顯然我們非常非常關注在這種動態環境中管理的成本。但我還要說,我們不會忽視我們的長期需求和抱負以及我們正在進行的投資。

  • So whether it's in restructuring, whether it's in new product development, whether it's in some of the areas of AI where we're looking at how can we gain efficiencies in our business longer term, we're really balancing areas where we're taking cost out of this system, both structurally and shorter-term actions against where we need to continue to make investments. And so you'll see some of those in the second half.

    因此,無論是在重組、新產品開發或人工智慧的某些領域,我們都在研究如何長期提高業務效率,我們實際上在平衡從這個系統中降低成本的領域,包括結構性和短期行動與我們需要繼續投資的領域。所以你會在下半場看到其中的一些。

  • Julian Mitchell - Analyst

    Julian Mitchell - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then just maybe looking out a little bit further. I think you mentioned just now the full year organic sales guide embeds a low single-digit volume increase and a sort of faster pace of volume growth in the second half of the year. As we sort of look out beyond this year, is that low single-digit volume increase the right sort of placeholder? Or do you think that you can sort of sustain that second half exit rate for some time into 2026?

    這很有幫助。然後也許再看得更遠一點。我想您剛才提到,全年有機銷售指南體現了低個位數的銷售成長以及下半年更快的銷售成長速度。當我們展望今年以後時,低個位數的銷售成長是否是正確的佔位符?或者您認為可以將下半年的退出率維持到 2026 年的一段時間嗎?

  • Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I would say -- think about it as consistent with what we provided in the investor day framework, which is kind of mid-single digit for our portfolio longer term.

    是的。我想說的是——想想這與我們在投資者日框架中提供的內容一致,這對於我們的長期投資組合來說是中等個位數。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe O'Dea, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的喬·奧迪亞。

  • Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

    Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

  • Could you just talk about the trajectory of growth within grid infrastructure as we move from first half to second half and you're coming off of first half orders up high teens. And so as we look at what, I guess, easier comps in distribution and the order strength, just how you're thinking about the back half growth rates and things like transmission, substation, distribution to get to something that seems like it would be a low double-digit organic growth rate in the back half of the year for utility?

    您能否談談電網基礎設施的成長軌跡,從上半年到下半年,您的上半年訂單量已經達到了十幾歲的高點。因此,當我們觀察分銷和訂單強度方面更容易比較的情況時,您如何看待下半年的增長率以及輸電、變電站、分銷等方面,以實現公用事業下半年低兩位數的有機增長率?

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, Joe, I think it starts with continued strength, and we showed you those pie slices on page 8. But transmission and substation has been growing, and we just see that just continuing through the balance of the year. So you've got a really nice contribution in the mid- and high teens there from a very substantial part of the business.

    是的,喬,我認為這始於持續的力量,我們在第 8 頁向您展示了那些餅圖。但輸電和變電站一直在成長,我們看到這種情況將在今年年底前持續下去。因此,從業務的很大一部分來看,你確實獲得了 15% 左右的貢獻。

  • I think secondly, as you noted, for distribution to now have started growing, and because of the destock dynamic, they're starting to face some easier comps. And so that will -- if it gets to mid-single digits for the year, it's going to have above that in the second half of the year. And I think the more wildcard is Aclara and the third quarter will be -- not to confuse, third quarter will be the fourth quarter of its contraction.

    其次,我認為,正如您所說,分銷現在已經開始成長,而且由於去庫存的動態,他們開始面臨一些更容易的競爭。因此,如果今年的成長率達到個位數的中間值,那麼下半年的成長率將會超過這個數字。我認為更不確定的是 Aclara,第三季將是——不要混淆,第三季將是其萎縮的第四季。

  • So as it hits the fourth quarter of '25, it's the point in time, and that was what Jeff Sprague was asking about, right? But that now allows it to return to growth even on sequentially kind of flat. And so all of those things are coming together where you see teens order book and you start to see easier compares for Aclara and it starts to create, Joe, that kind of second half trajectory that you cited.

    所以當它到達 25 年的第四季時,這就是時間點,這就是 Jeff Sprague 所問的,對嗎?但現在,即使在環比持平的情況下,它也能夠恢復成長。因此,所有這些因素都聚集在一起,你會看到青少年訂購書籍,你開始看到 Aclara 更容易進行比較,並且它開始創造,喬,你提到的那種下半場軌跡。

  • Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

    Joseph O'Dea - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And then I just wanted to shift to capital deployment. We see continued activity on the repo front. But just in terms of the M&A pipeline side of things, any characterization of how that looks, how you think about likelihood of any activity there in the back half of this year?

    知道了。這很有幫助。然後我只想轉向資本部署。我們看到回購方面的活動持續進行。但是僅就併購通路方面而言,您能描述一下它的情況嗎?您認為今年下半年開展任何活動的可能性如何?

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. And your question is timed to the hour or so. We just closed this morning on a small bolt-on acquisition. It's in the utility space. It makes enclosures for water utilities and helps them collect and sends data and communicate that data, small, but a good sign to your question. We also, in the quarter, we sold a small business that was not really contributing to the growth and margin profile that we aspire to.

    是的。您的問題大約是按小時計算的。我們今天早上剛完成了一項小型附加收購。它位於實用空間。它為水務公司製造外殼,幫助他們收集和發送數據並傳達這些數據,雖然很小,但對你的問題來說是一個好兆頭。在本季度,我們還出售了一家小型企業,該企業並沒有真正為我們期望的成長和利潤率做出貢獻。

  • And so I use those as two small examples of us continuing to tend to the portfolio and weed out and add even if it's small, we think those are good moves to make. They end up not creating a huge financial contribution to this year, but we think are good for us in the long run. I think maybe more generally, the pipeline continues to be quite active.

    因此,我用這兩個小例子來說明我們繼續專注於投資組合,剔除並添加即使規模很小的資產,我們也認為這些都是很好的舉措。他們最終沒有為今年做出巨大的財務貢獻,但我們認為從長遠來看這對我們有好處。我認為也許更普遍的是,管道仍然非常活躍。

  • There are a number of private equity firms who have invested in our space, and one thing we probably can all count on is as soon as they buy something in that, whether it's three-year, four-year time frame, they'll be looking to sell, and so that creates some opportunity for us, and I would say our business development teams are quite busy looking at things.

    有許多私募股權公司已經投資了我們的領域,我們大概可以相信的一件事是,只要他們購買了某些東西,無論是三年還是四年的時間框架,他們都會尋求出售,因此這為我們創造了一些機會,我想說我們的業務開發團隊正在忙著研究這些事情。

  • And obviously, to the extent we have something to talk about, we would. But it certainly is our intention to continue to invest in acquisitions. We -- the pipeline has businesses and assets that we find attractive. And at the same time, I think our cash flow continues to grow. And so you did see us, I think, to prevent the balance sheet from getting a little lazy, you did see us buy $225 million of shares in the first half of the year.

    顯然,只要我們有事情要談,我們就會談論。但我們確實有意繼續投資收購。我們-該管道擁有我們認為有吸引力的業務和資產。同時,我認為我們的現金流將繼續成長。所以我認為,你確實看到我們為了防止資產負債表變得有點懶惰,你確實看到我們在今年上半年購買了價值 2.25 億美元的股票。

  • So you probably would have seen that average more in the $40-ish, $50-ish a year range. So it's a slightly maybe more balanced capital allocation than in the past, but we continue to be quite interested in acquisitions, Jeff.

    因此,您可能會看到平均每年在 40 美元左右、50 美元左右的範圍內。因此,與過去相比,資本配置可能更加均衡,但我們仍然對收購非常感興趣,傑夫。

  • Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And maybe the only thing I would add, our focus for these deals is in the higher growth areas of our portfolio that we've aligned on. So think T&D, think data centers, think light industrial, all those markets that are growing higher. There is a good pipeline of deals. I think there's reasonably good availability of deals. They're both on the bolt-on as well as some larger ones in there.

    是的。也許我唯一想補充的是,我們在這些交易中的重點是我們投資組合中成長較快的領域。所以想想輸配電、資料中心、輕工業,所有這些市場都在不斷成長。有一系列良好的交易管道。我認為有很多不錯的交易可供選擇。它們都是螺栓固定的,還有一些較大的螺栓固定在那裡。

  • So I feel good that we're -- we have availability of these deals and that it continues to be focused on becoming more important, increasing our portfolio to the customers we serve in these attractive markets.

    因此,我很高興我們能夠提供這些交易,並且我們將繼續專注於變得更加重要,為這些有吸引力的市場中的客戶提供更多的產品組合。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brett Linzey, Mizuho.

    瑞穗的布雷特‧林齊 (Brett Linzey)。

  • Brett Linzey - Analyst

    Brett Linzey - Analyst

  • Yes, I just wanted to follow up on the grid automation and specifically the meter side. So encouraging to see that sequential improvement. But I guess, as you think about that stability you're pointing to, is it mostly just the MRO side? Or are you beginning to see some RFPs start to ramp back up on new projects that could be slated for next year?

    是的,我只是想跟進電網自動化,特別是電錶方面。看到這種連續的進步真是令人鼓舞。但是我想,當您考慮您所指的穩定性時,它是否主要只是 MRO 方面?或者您開始看到一些 RFP 開始重新關注可能計劃於明年實施的新項目?

  • Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, I'd say where the business is now, it's mostly on the MRO and smaller projects, I would say. This business is very highly focused and has always been on the more public power market, the co-ops and the munis. So I would say both in MRO as well as the more traditional projects. We are seeing some larger projects in the pipeline right now, we're quoting those.

    是的,我想說現在的業務主要是 MRO 和較小的項目。這項業務高度集中,一直專注於公共電力市場、合作社和市政債券。所以我想說,無論是在 MRO 還是在更傳統的專案中。我們看到目前正在籌備一些較大的項目,我們正在引用這些項目。

  • So that remains to be seen if -- whether we win these or when they will hit. But I think as we provide certainly the guidance here for the balance of the year and our comments into next year, it's a much more stable business. It's more the ongoing MRO and projects that we're seeing.

    因此,我們是否能夠贏得勝利或勝利何時到來還有待觀察。但我認為,正如我們在這裡為今年的餘額提供的指導以及對明年的評論一樣,這是一個更穩定的業務。我們看到的更多是正在進行的 MRO 和項目。

  • Brett Linzey - Analyst

    Brett Linzey - Analyst

  • Great. And then just shifting back over to the electric transmission and the substation piece, very strong growth. You talked about the good run rate into the back half. But thinking about the bouncing off point, as you assess some of the project queues and then your win rate separately on these projects. Can you sustain that double-digit growth range into next year based on your current visibility in those businesses?

    偉大的。然後轉回電力傳輸和變電站部分,成長非常強勁。您談到了後半段的良好運行率。但是,當您評估一些專案佇列,然後分別評估這些專案的成功率時,請考慮反彈點。根據您目前在這些業務中的知名度,您能否在明年維持兩位數的成長幅度?

  • Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Gerben Bakker - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Maybe I'll start with just our position in these markets, right? If you think about our portfolio in transmission and substation, I mean, this is where some of our core strength come from both the offering that we have, the portfolio that we have, the relationship and the specifications that we have. So we see these projects. I mean we've won some of the largest transmission projects that are being built in the US, Hubbell as a supplier.

    是的。也許我應該先談談我們在這些市場中的地位,對嗎?如果你考慮我們在輸電和變電站領域的產品組合,我的意思是,我們的一些核心優勢來自於我們提供的產品、我們的產品組合、我們之間的關係以及我們的規格。所以我們看到了這些項目。我的意思是,我們贏得了美國正在建造的一些最大的輸電項目,Hubbell 是其供應商。

  • So the visibility, I would say, is good, and it's out there. It's multiyear that we're seeing there. So this concept of high single- digit growth that we said at investor day, we see visibility to that certainly in the next few years.

    所以我想說,可見性很好,而且它就在那裡。我們在那裡看到的是多年的現象。因此,我們在投資者日上提出的高個位數成長概念,在未來幾年肯定會實現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chad Dillard, Bernstein.

    查德·迪拉德,伯恩斯坦。

  • Chad Dillard - Analyst

    Chad Dillard - Analyst

  • So I was hoping you could bridge the old versus new earnings guidance. I think you had $0.50 of tariff before. Where does that go? How much is the FIFO versus LIFO transition? And anything you can call out on the core business or anything else?

    所以我希望您能夠將舊的獲利預測與新的獲利預測連結起來。我認為你之前的關稅是 0.50 美元。那會怎樣?FIFO 與 LIFO 的轉換程度是多少?您能談談核心業務或其他方面嗎?

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. So let's just use page 9 as the way to bridge. So at the very beginning of the year in January, we had a 4% to 5% growth rate with 1 point of price. So there was three to four of volume. Now we're 4% to 6% of growth with kind of 3 points of price, so kind of 2 points of volume. So we're getting to our goal with a little bit less volume, Chad, right? So that's really the first point of note.

    是的。因此我們就用第 9 頁作為橋樑吧。因此,今年 1 月份,價格每上漲 1 個點,成長率就達到 4% 到 5%。因此音量有三到四。現在我們的成長率為 4% 到 6%,價格成長了 3 個點,銷量成長了 2 個點。所以我們只要稍微減少一點數量就能達到我們的目標,查德,對嗎?這確實是需要注意的第一點。

  • Secondly, all that contingency from tariff risk has been removed. I think that's important to note. Thirdly, there's been $0.30 in the first half of the year of benefit to switch to FIFO, and that's been added to the guidance. So I think the way I would bridge it is saying we're operationally getting to the same point in January, as we said.

    其次,所有關稅風險的意外事件都已消除。我認為這一點值得注意。第三,今年上半年轉換為 FIFO 的收益為 0.30 美元,這筆錢已被添加到指導中。所以我認為我解決這個問題的方式是說我們在 1 月的營運上達到了同樣的水平,正如我們所說的那樣。

  • We've overcome the tariffs in doing that through getting a little more price. That's come at the expense perhaps of a little bit of volume, but the margin and price cost management is allowing us to get there. And so I think that's how I would bridge the pieces.

    我們透過提高一點價格克服了關稅問題。這也許會以犧牲少量銷售量為代價,但利潤和價格成本管理使我們達到了目標。所以我認為這就是我彌合差距的方法。

  • Chad Dillard - Analyst

    Chad Dillard - Analyst

  • Great. That's really helpful. And then with the change in tax laws, I think one of the offshoots is that there's going to be a lot more manufacturing construction. So I think you've talked about your content as a share of the project being, I think, somewhere around like mid-single digits. So how does that change if you're going to be moving into more manufacturing versus, I guess, like the baseline?

    偉大的。這真的很有幫助。隨著稅法的變化,我認為其中一個影響就是製造業建設將大幅增加。所以我認為您已經談到了您的內容在項目中所佔的份額,我認為大約在個位數左右。那麼,如果您要轉向更多的製造業,那麼與基準相比,情況會發生怎樣的變化?

  • Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

    Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

  • I'm not sure we understand the question there, Chad. You're talking about like systems control type applications?

    我不確定我們是否理解了這個問題,查德。您說的是系統控制類型的應用程式嗎?

  • Chad Dillard - Analyst

    Chad Dillard - Analyst

  • Yes, systems control.

    是的,系統控制。

  • Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

    Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

  • Yes. I mean, traditionally, we said it's a low single-digit percentage of cost in terms of components and what we traditionally make a systems control type business would be higher than that, obviously. I'm not sure it changes the overall blended rate for the segment, but certain businesses, yes, will be at the higher end of that. So you're looking at the substation space, for instance, we make up more than that low single digit if you include systems control.

    是的。我的意思是,傳統上,我們認為組件成本佔比很低,而我們傳統上進行的系統控制類型業務的成本顯然會高於這個數字。我不確定它是否會改變該細分市場的整體混合利率,但某些業務確實會處於較高水平。例如,如果你看一下變電站空間,如果包括系統控制,我們的佔比就不只那個低個位數了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christopher Glynn, Oppenheimer.

    克里斯托弗·格林,奧本海默。

  • Christopher Glenn - Analyst

    Christopher Glenn - Analyst

  • Curious about an HES question. You talked about continued progress with the sales force alignments and some channel conversions with years to go. Just looking to elaborate on that a little bit. And specifically, are you suggesting that channel share and distribution pickup runway is -- has several years of progression there?

    對 HES 問題感到好奇。您談到了未來幾年銷售團隊調整和一些通路轉換的持續進展。只是想稍微詳細說明一下。具體來說,您是否認為通路份額和分銷回升跑道已經存在了幾年的發展歷程?

  • William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    William Sperry - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. Just I think starting with sort of the journey that we're on, Chris. So Mark, as you'll recall, helped us really take the utility segment and take a number of acquisitions and really create a business out of it rather than a series of verticals. And he's now had a couple of years in the electrical segment leadership role, and he's really doing the same thing.

    是的。我認為,就從我們正在進行的旅程開始吧,克里斯。所以,正如你們所記得的,馬克幫助我們真正佔領了公用事業領域,進行了一系列收購,並真正從中創造了一項業務,而不是一系列垂直業務。現在,他已擔任電氣部門領導職務幾年了,他確實在做同樣的事情。

  • And one of the things that he -- first initiatives that was pretty important was realigning the sales force. So rather than have sales force dedicated by product, it's now dedicated by geography. And so there's more cross-selling, and we think that's leading to a really good customer response. And they find it easier to do business with us, and it's better for us because we get more selling time in front of the customer that's kind of cross-selling.

    他採取的首要舉措之一就是重新調整銷售團隊。因此,銷售人員不再按產品劃分,而是以地理劃分。因此交叉銷售變得更加頻繁,我們認為這會帶來非常好的客戶反應。他們發現與我們做生意更容易,這對我們來說更有利,因為我們在客戶面前有更多的銷售時間,這是一種交叉銷售。

  • Part of that also included creating some vertical teams around specialty verticals, data centers being the most obvious. And we found those to have been successful rather than us selling a product through distribution to data centers, we're now more aware and can sell a broader basket of products. And so to us, that initiative on the commercial end has, a, has been successful to date, and I'm saying it's still immature in its implementation and will get better and will improve, I think.

    其中還包括圍繞專業垂直領域創建一些垂直團隊,其中最明顯的就是資料中心。我們發現這些方法很成功,我們不再透過分銷到資料中心來銷售產品,而是更了解並且可以銷售更廣泛的產品。因此,對我們來說,商業方面的舉措迄今為止已經取得了成功,我想說它的實施還不成熟,但我認為它會變得更好,並且會有所改進。

  • And that's why I said I do think there's years ahead. And my years ahead also implied some of the efficiency things that Mark is doing, taking out redundancies in staffing and the like. So there's both kind of a commercial front-facing element to what he's doing as well as a back-end infrastructure overhead kind of element to what he's doing.

    這就是為什麼我說我確實認為未來還有很長的路要走。我未來的幾年也意味著馬克正在做的一些提高效率的事情,例如消除人員冗餘等等。因此,他所做的事情既有商業前端元素,也有後端基礎設施開銷元素。

  • And we're sort of -- it's just not a silver bullet boom. It's kind of a -- we grind it upward. And that's -- I think you've seen example. You've seen it in evidence already over the last year or two.

    而我們覺得──這並不是什麼靈丹妙藥。這有點像——我們把它磨向上。這就是——我想你已經看到了例子。在過去的一兩年裡,您已經看到了它的證據。

  • Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

    Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

  • Can we take one more question and then close it out? Sorry, I had some technical difficulties on my end. So take one more and then close it out.

    我們可以再回答一個問題然後結束討論嗎?抱歉,我遇到了一些技術問題。因此,再拍一張然後結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Patrick Baumann, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的派崔克‧鮑曼。

  • Patrick Baumann - Analyst

    Patrick Baumann - Analyst

  • On the second half of the year, I was wondering if you could help me think through how to envision organic volumes ramping at the utility segment. Does it go from like, I don't know, low single-digit organic volume growth in the third quarter to something in the double digits in the fourth quarter year-over-year?

    在下半年,我想知道您是否可以幫助我思考如何設想公用事業領域的有機產量成長。它是否會從第三季的低個位數有機銷售成長變為第四季的兩位數年成長?

  • Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

    Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

  • Certainly not on a volume basis, Pat. If you're talking organically, again, you can kind of do the math on first half, second half. But volumes will ramp through the year and particularly again in the fourth quarter on some easier compares and then price will be a steady incremental contributor as the year progresses.

    當然不是按數量計算的,帕特。如果你是有機地談論,那麼你可以對前半部和後半部進行計算。但全年銷售量將會增加,特別是第四季銷售將再次增加,隨著時間的推移,價格將穩定增加。

  • Patrick Baumann - Analyst

    Patrick Baumann - Analyst

  • Okay. So volumes in the fourth quarter don't get up to double digit?

    好的。那麼第四季的銷售不會達到兩位數嗎?

  • Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

    Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

  • Yes, that wouldn't be reflected in guidance, no.

    是的,這不會反映在指導中,不會。

  • Patrick Baumann - Analyst

    Patrick Baumann - Analyst

  • Okay. Maybe I'm just doing the math wrong on the price and organic growth stuff. Sorry if I missed this, -- this is a cleanup. I'm just backing into a margin guide for the year expansion of 50-basis points. Is that in the ballpark? And then on the segments, should we think about electrical being above that rate and utility below that?

    好的。也許我只是在價格和有機成長方面的計算出了錯誤。抱歉,如果我錯過了這個,——這是一個清理。我只是支持今年擴大 50 個基點的保證金指南。這大概是這樣的嗎?然後,在細分領域中,我們是否應該考慮電力高於該費率,而公用事業低於該費率?

  • Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

    Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

  • Yes, you're in the ballpark for the full year. And again, the segment drivers are going to be both impacted by the FIFO and LIFO transition. But yes, probably a little bit more in electrical and utility.

    是的,全年情況都大致如此。再次強調,細分市場驅動因素將受到先進先出 (FIFO) 和後進先出 (LIFO) 轉換的影響。但是是的,在電氣和實用方面可能要多一點。

  • Patrick Baumann - Analyst

    Patrick Baumann - Analyst

  • And then maybe just last one, sorry, another cleanup. So I think the EPS is a little bit shifted last year and with the accounting changes this year, any way to think about the EPS growth in the back half of the year split between third quarter, fourth quarter? Any color you want to give on that?

    然後也許只是最後一個,抱歉,另一次清理。所以我認為去年的每股盈餘略有變化,並且隨著今年的會計變化,有什麼方法可以考慮下半年每股收益成長在第三季和第四季之間分配?您想對此做出什麼解釋嗎?

  • Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

    Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

  • Not really. Again, it's going to be based on the volume discussion we just had. It will probably be the biggest driver.

    並不真地。再次,這將基於我們剛才討論的數量。這或許將成為最大的推動力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Dan for closing remarks.

    現在,我想將電話轉回給丹,請他做最後發言。

  • Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

    Dan Innamorato - VP, Investor Relations

  • Great. Thanks, Lawanda. I'll be around all day for follow-up calls. Thanks, everybody, for joining us.

    偉大的。謝謝,Lawanda。我會全天接聽後續電話。感謝大家加入我們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。