好時 (HSY) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

好時公司最近舉行了 2023 年第一季度收益問答環節,期間他們討論了財務業績並更新了當年的銷售增長指引。然而,他們警告說,前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響,並提及非 GAAP 財務指標。

好時公司的子公司 SkinnyPop 沒有對其產能進行任何改變,但今年將增加 5 條新生產線。然而,好時首席執行官表示,該公司不太可能提高今年的業績指引,並指出毛利率受到商品價格上漲的影響,尤其是可可和糖。

另一方面,百事公司的高管對公司的消費者參與度和持續的潛在消費者行為以及對媒體投資的良好反應表示有信心。與此同時,Conagra Brands 的首席執行官討論了最近對 Weaver Popcorn 的收購及其對公司增長和自由現金流的影響。

SkinnyPop 專注於提高大眾商店和雜貨店的可用性,但也認識到便利店對於接觸特定消費者和場合的重要性。該公司目前正在考慮 2024 年的定價策略,但現在考慮交叉彈性還為時過早。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to The Hershey Company First Quarter 2023 Question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder this conference is being recorded.

    您好,歡迎來到好時公司 2023 年第一季度問答環節。 (操作員說明)作為提醒,正在錄製此會議。

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to your host, Ms. Melissa Poole, Vice President of Investor Relations for The Hershey Company. Thank you. You may begin.

    我現在想把電話轉給你的東道主,好時公司投資者關係副總裁 Melissa Poole 女士。謝謝。你可以開始了。

  • Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

    Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

  • Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for The Hershey Company's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Q&A session. I hope everyone has had the chance to read our press release and listen to our prerecorded management remarks, both of which are available on our website. In addition, we have posted a transcript of the prerecorded remarks. At the conclusion of today's live Q&A session, we will also post a transcript and audio replay of this call.

    大家,早安。感謝您今天參加好時公司 2023 年第一季度收益問答環節。我希望每個人都有機會閱讀我們的新聞稿並聆聽我們預先錄製的管理層講話,這兩者都可以在我們的網站上找到。此外,我們還發布了預先錄製的評論的文字記錄。在今天的現場問答環節結束時,我們還將發布此次通話的文字記錄和音頻重播。

  • Please note that during today's Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These statements include expectations and assumptions regarding the company's future operations and financial performance. Actual results could differ materially from those projected. The company undertakes no obligation to update these statements based on subsequent events. A detailed listing of such risks and uncertainties can be found in today's press release and the company's SEC filings.

    請注意,在今天的問答環節中,我們可能會做出受各種風險和不確定因素影響的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述包括對公司未來運營和財務業績的預期和假設。實際結果可能與預期結果存在重大差異。公司不承擔根據後續事件更新這些聲明的義務。有關此類風險和不確定性的詳細列表,請參閱今天的新聞稿和公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件。

  • Finally, please note that we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe will provide useful information for investors. The presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations to the GAAP results are included in this morning's press release. Joining me today are Hershey's Chairman and CEO, Michele Buck; and Hershey's Senior Vice President and CFO, Steve Voskuil.

    最後,請注意,我們可能會參考某些我們認為將為投資者提供有用信息的非 GAAP 財務指標。此信息的呈現不應被孤立地考慮或替代根據 GAAP 呈現的財務信息。與 GAAP 結果的對賬包含在今天上午的新聞稿中。今天加入我的是好時公司的董事長兼首席執行官 Michele Buck;好時高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Steve Voskuil。

  • With that, I will turn it over to the operator for the first question.

    有了這個,我會把它交給接線員來回答第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。請繼續你的問題。

  • Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • First off, I wanted to ask a little bit about the guidance update on the top line. The company beat by a few points on the top line in the quarter, but when we take out the earlier summer shipments, which is really just timing, I guess, results on organic, we're only slightly ahead of the Street view, but Hershey raised its sales growth guidance to the high end of the previous range for the full year. So I guess my question is, what are you seeing at this stage that gave you the confidence to shift the top line guidance the way you did?

    首先,我想問一些關於頂行指南更新的問題。該公司在本季度的收入上領先幾個百分點,但當我們剔除早些時候的夏季出貨量時,我想這真的只是時機,有機結果,我們只略微領先街景,但好時將其全年銷售增長預期上調至先前範圍的高端。所以我想我的問題是,你在這個階段看到了什麼讓你有信心按照你的方式改變頂線指導?

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thank you, Andrew. Yes, you're exactly right. For the first quarter, the timing impact was about half of the beat on the sales line and also strong performance in international. So those were the 2 big drivers. As we look to the balance of the year, obviously, the timing is going to wash out in the second quarter. But we do expect to see a little bit better elasticities in the year-to-go period. We still see it moderating versus some of the strong performance we've seen in the last 6 to 9 months, but a little bit more improved.

    是的。謝謝你,安德魯。是的,你完全正確。對於第一季度,時間影響大約是銷售線節拍的一半,國際表現也很強勁。所以這些是兩個主要驅動因素。當我們展望今年的餘額時,顯然,時機將在第二季度消失。但我們確實希望在往年期間看到更好的彈性。與我們在過去 6 到 9 個月中看到的一些強勁表現相比,我們仍然看到它有所緩和,但有所改善。

  • And we're base that a little bit more on media investment that we also have incrementally in the year-to-go plan. So between, I'll say, with the strength we saw in the international business, what we're seeing on the back of improved elasticity a little bit in the year-to-go period. That's what gives us the confidence in the rate.

    我們更多地基於媒體投資,我們也在年度計劃中逐步增加。因此,我要說的是,憑藉我們在國際業務中看到的實力,我們在過去一年期間在彈性有所改善的背景下看到的情況。這就是讓我們對利率充滿信心的原因。

  • Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. And then with the pull forward of some shipments from 2Q into 1Q, along with the tougher, I guess, year ago organic sales and EPS growth comparisons in 2Q, I guess, what are some of the key puts and takes to keep in mind when we're modeling for 2Q?

    偉大的。然後隨著一些出貨量從第二季度提前到第一季度,以及更艱難的,我猜,一年前第二季度的有機銷售和每股收益增長比較,我想,當我們正在為第二季度建模?

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Q2 will be -- probably our most challenging quarter as I look to the balance of the year. We're going to have the timing piece shift back out, but then also recall last year with a big inventory till quarter as well. And so when you look at the lap, it's a pretty tough lap. That combined with that 1.5 points coming out, we'll put more to the mid-single-digit range probably from a sales standpoint and that will put more pressure on the EPS side than the rest of the quarters.

    是的。第二季度將是 - 可能是我們最具挑戰性的季度,因為我展望了今年的餘額。我們將把時間片移回去,但也會回憶起去年的大量庫存,直到季度。因此,當您看一圈時,這是一個非常艱難的一圈。再加上 1.5 個百分點,從銷售的角度來看,我們可能會將更多的數字放在中等個位數範圍內,這將比其他季度給 EPS 方面帶來更大的壓力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman。

  • Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

    Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

  • Two questions on capacity, if I could. First, I think your prior guidance, if I had it down right, was for 5 new lines to come on this year. I think you're calling for 4 now. So am I reading that wrong? Or was one delayed? And then I'm also curious to learn a little bit more about the Weaver acquisitions, just in terms of how they may help you down the road in terms of added capacity or efficiency, obviously, bringing plants in-house is generally a good thing for efficiency, but just in light of the fact that they already did make product for you. Just trying to get a little bit of a better sense of some of the benefits down the road for you.

    如果可以的話,關於能力的兩個問題。首先,我認為您之前的指導意見(如果我沒記錯的話)是今年要上線 5 條新線路。我想你現在要叫 4。那我讀錯了嗎?還是有人延誤了?然後我也很想了解更多關於 Weaver 收購的信息,就它們如何在增加產能或效率方面幫助你而言,顯然,將工廠引入內部通常是一件好事為了效率,但只是考慮到他們已經為您製作了產品。只是想稍微更好地了解一些為您帶來的好處。

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Sure. So there is no change to the number of lines. There are 5 lines. And I think there's 1 that we just didn't specifically call out in our remarks. So no difference there. Relative to Weaver, we feel very good about the acquisition. We were manufacturing is currently a command of SkinnyPop. We acquired 2 plants and really what it gives us -- or 3 things that gives us sufficient capacity to be able to support growth for several years to come.

    當然。所以行數沒有變化。有5條線。我認為有 1 個我們只是沒有在我們的評論中特別提到。所以那裡沒有區別。相對Weaver,我們對此次收購感覺非常好。我們正在製造目前是 SkinnyPop 的命令。我們收購了 2 家工廠,以及它真正給我們帶來的東西——或者說 3 件東西,讓我們有足夠的能力來支持未來幾年的增長。

  • And as you know, we're seeing very strong growth on SkinnyPop. It provides us with resiliency and also flexibility just so that we can continue to support the strong growth that we are seeing. As you know, as you look across our business, for strategic categories and businesses that we are in. We do like to have at least some degree of owned manufacturing across our network. And we also feel pretty good about the investment return at the investment that we made, we believe given the quality of the assets, the fact the facilities are on the newer side that it is faster and cheaper than if we needed to build this on our own.

    如您所知,我們在 SkinnyPop 上看到了非常強勁的增長。它為我們提供了彈性和靈活性,以便我們能夠繼續支持我們所看到的強勁增長。如您所知,當您審視我們的業務時,對於我們所處的戰略類別和業務。我們確實希望在我們的網絡中至少擁有一定程度的自有製造。而且我們也對我們所做的投資的投資回報感到非常滿意,我們相信鑑於資產的質量,事實上設施在較新的一側,它比我們需要在我們的基礎上建造它更快、更便宜自己的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Cody Ross with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Cody Ross。

  • Cody T. Ross - Analyst

    Cody T. Ross - Analyst

  • You're implementing a high single-digit price increase on 50% of your confection portfolio effective at the end of May. I believe that's correct. That's what you announced at the Analyst Day. How much do you believe will benefit fiscal '23 versus fiscal '24? And can you explain the mechanics of the benefit by the year?

    從 5 月底開始,您將對 50% 的糖果產品組合實施高個位數的提價。我相信這是正確的。這就是您在分析師日宣布的內容。您認為 23 財年與 24 財年的收益有多大?你能按年解釋福利的機制嗎?

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. At a high level, it's going to have, as we talked about in the investor conference, more impact in '24 than it is in '23. That's based on partly the implementation date and then also the fact that we have protection in place for big promotions and programming for a good part of the year. And we're still working with retailers on the implementation. And so all of that will continue. I think by the time we get to the mid-year mark, we'll probably have more visibility, both on the balance of '23 and '24 impact. So we'll be able to talk more about it at that time.

    是的。在高層次上,正如我們在投資者會議上談到的那樣,它將在 24 世紀產生比 23 世紀更大的影響。這部分是基於實施日期,然後是我們在一年中的大部分時間為大型促銷和計劃提供保護這一事實。我們仍在與零售商合作實施。所以這一切都將繼續。我認為,到年中時,我們可能會在 23 年和 24 年影響的平衡方面有更多的知名度。因此,我們將能夠在那個時候更多地討論它。

  • Cody T. Ross - Analyst

    Cody T. Ross - Analyst

  • Great. And then just a quick question on gross margin. Your gross margin came in higher than both years and the Street's expectation this quarter. You raised your outlook to expansion of 70 to 80 basis points for the year. What gives you confidence to raise your outlook this early in the year, especially in context of your retail partners who are struggling to expand gross margin this year based on their guidance.

    偉大的。然後只是一個關於毛利率的快速問題。您的毛利率高於兩年和華爾街本季度的預期。您將今年的展望提高了 70 到 80 個基點。是什麼讓你有信心在今年年初提高你的前景,特別是在你的零售合作夥伴今年根據他們的指導努力擴大毛利率的情況下。

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thank you. Yes, it is early in the year. I think in general, we probably wouldn't look at raising our guidance top line or bottom line this early in the year. On the gross margin side, though, a couple of things. One is, clearly, we have some commodities that are getting more expensive. And so cocoa and sugar in particular, are moving in the wrong direction. We have a few smaller nonhedged ingredients that are a little bit more favorable right now than they were.

    是的。謝謝。是的,現在是年初。我認為總的來說,我們可能不會考慮在今年年初提高我們的指導頂線或底線。不過,在毛利率方面,有幾件事。一是,很明顯,我們有一些商品變得越來越貴。因此,尤其是可可和糖,正朝著錯誤的方向發展。我們有一些較小的非對沖成分,它們現在比以前更有利。

  • Time will tell whether that's going to be able to stick around. But probably the biggest piece has been just freight and logistics improvements and if you recall, last year at this time, when we did the call, that was one of the big, I'll say, surprises on the downside was increases in freight and logistics costs. And for the first quarter, at least, we saw some improvement in that, both on our supply chain, but also contracted support for getting trucks to show up for appointments and freight costs and so forth. So those are really the drivers in the first quarter that we've captured in the outlook. Time will tell as the year goes on how the rest plays out. But that's what gives us the confidence is really just the first quarter performance.

    時間會證明這是否能夠堅持下去。但可能最大的部分只是貨運和物流的改善,如果你還記得,去年的這個時候,當我們打電話時,那是最大的一個,我會說,不利的是運費和物流的增加物流成本。至少在第一季度,我們在供應鏈上看到了一些改善,而且還簽訂了合同支持,讓卡車出現在預約和運費等方面。因此,這些確實是我們在展望中捕捉到的第一季度的驅動因素。隨著時間的流逝,時間會證明其餘部分的結果如何。但這正是第一季度的表現讓我們充滿信心的原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Nik Modi with RBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Nik Modi 與 RBC 的對話。

  • Sunil Harshad Modi - MD of Tobacco, Household Products and Beverages & Lead Consumer Staples Analyst

    Sunil Harshad Modi - MD of Tobacco, Household Products and Beverages & Lead Consumer Staples Analyst

  • So just a quick clarification. On international, I saw the comments you put in the prepared remarks, but maybe any more context on exactly some of the specific initiatives outside of a recovery in travel. I'm just curious on that was a very strong number relative to expectations. And then if you could just touch on the market share commentary you made in the U.S. kind of what's driving some of that? You talked about some mix, but I was kind of unclear exactly what I was referencing.

    所以只是一個快速的澄清。在國際上,我看到了你在準備好的評論中提出的評論,但也許還有關於旅行複甦之外的一些具體舉措的更多背景信息。我只是好奇,相對於預期,這是一個非常強勁的數字。然後,如果你能談談你在美國發表的市場份額評論,那麼是什麼推動了其中的一些?你談到了一些混合,但我有點不清楚我指的是什麼。

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. I mean if we look at the initiatives in international, we've seen category strength across the market. We saw a stronger Easter season in Brazil than we had anticipated. We continue to see distribution gains in Mexico. And also in India, so across the board, some strength there. We do expect some moderation going forward because we have some pretty strong laps, but our demand has really remained pretty resilient.

    是的。我的意思是,如果我們看看國際上的舉措,我們就會看到整個市場的品類實力。我們在巴西看到了比預期更強勁的複活節。我們繼續看到墨西哥的分銷收益。在印度也是如此,所以在所有方面,那裡都有一些實力。我們確實預計未來會有一些緩和,因為我們有一些相當強勁的圈數,但我們的需求確實保持了相當強的彈性。

  • And then we're also seeing some impact from timing as if you may recall, in Q4, consumer demand outpaced our shipments, and we've recovered some of that in the first quarter. And can you repeat your share question one more time?

    然後我們也看到了時間安排的一些影響,好像你可能還記得,在第四季度,消費者需求超過了我們的出貨量,我們在第一季度已經恢復了一些。你能再重複一遍你的分享問題嗎?

  • Sunil Harshad Modi - MD of Tobacco, Household Products and Beverages & Lead Consumer Staples Analyst

    Sunil Harshad Modi - MD of Tobacco, Household Products and Beverages & Lead Consumer Staples Analyst

  • Yes. I was just -- Michele, I was just hoping you could provide some context on the U.S. share commentary you had in the prepared remarks and the press release. You had referenced, I think, in the prepared remarks, mix was a driver, and I was just unclear but if you could just provide any context on some of the market share trends that you're seeing?

    是的。我只是 - 米歇爾,我只是希望你能提供一些關於你在準備好的評論和新聞稿中的美國股票評論的背景。我認為,你在準備好的發言中提到,混合是一個驅動因素,我只是不清楚,但你是否可以提供有關你所看到的一些市場份額趨勢的任何背景信息?

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes, absolutely. So we definitely -- if we look at Easter, we had some impact from supply constraints. We anticipate by Halloween and holiday. Those will be behind us, but that impacted us and then also, we've continued to see very strong growth in sweets and then also that rebound of refreshment from some of the weaker trends in that post-COVID type of era. So really mix as an impact.

    是的,一點沒錯。所以我們肯定 - 如果我們看看復活節,我們會受到供應限制的影響。我們預計到萬聖節和假期。那些將在我們身後,但這對我們產生了影響,然後我們繼續看到糖果的強勁增長,以及從後 COVID 時代的一些較弱趨勢中復甦的提神。所以真正混合作為一種影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Pamela Kaufman with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Pamela Kaufman。

  • Pamela Kaufman - Senior Analyst

    Pamela Kaufman - Senior Analyst

  • I was hoping that you could talk kind of generally about what you're seeing in the consumer demand environment. You've seen strong volumes despite strong pricing growth. So how are you thinking about the consumer and elasticities over the course of the year?

    我希望你能大致談談你在消費者需求環境中看到的情況。儘管價格增長強勁,但您還是看到了強勁的銷量。那麼你如何看待一年中的消費者和彈性?

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • So I'll start by talking a little bit about the trends, and I'll let Steve talk about elasticities. Certainly, consumer behavior continues to evolve. And we know that many consumers have made changes to their spending to respond to inflation in the marketplace. We certainly continue to see that food has performed well compared to other categories, specifically food at home as it's a much more affordable option for consumers versus dining out.

    所以我會先談談趨勢,然後讓史蒂夫談談彈性。當然,消費者行為在不斷演變。我們知道許多消費者已經改變了他們的支出以應對市場通貨膨脹。我們當然會繼續看到,與其他類別相比,食品表現良好,特別是家庭食品,因為與外出就餐相比,它是消費者更實惠的選擇。

  • And we also know snacks and candy continue to perform even better than broader food and elasticities in those categories have continued to remain pretty strong. And we do expect that we'll continue to see strength in those elasticities. We know that consumers are being increasingly mindful about where they shop, they are looking for more affordable options, whether it is the channels in which they're shopping, whether it's private label, whether it is deals and increased promotion and we are constantly carefully monitoring those trends just to make sure that our media and our in-store activations are really optimized so that we can align to the trends that we're seeing.

    我們還知道零食和糖果的表現繼續優於更廣泛的食品,並且這些類別的彈性繼續保持強勁。我們確實希望我們會繼續看到這些彈性的力量。我們知道,消費者越來越關注他們在哪裡購物,他們正在尋找更實惠的選擇,無論是他們購物的渠道,是否是自有品牌,是否是交易和增加的促銷活動,我們一直在謹慎監控這些趨勢只是為了確保我們的媒體和店內活動得到真正優化,以便我們能夠與我們看到的趨勢保持一致。

  • Steve, do you want to talk a little bit about elasticities?

    史蒂夫,你想談談彈性嗎?

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, on the elasticity side, we touched on this a little bit in the first question. We still expect elasticity to moderate as the year goes on. But in our outlook now it's a little bit less severely than we did in our original plan. And we'll see how the year plays out, but that's our current assumption.

    是的,在彈性方面,我們在第一個問題中略微提到了這一點。隨著時間的推移,我們仍然預計彈性將放緩。但在我們看來,現在的情況比我們最初的計劃要輕一些。我們將看看今年的結果如何,但這是我們目前的假設。

  • Pamela Kaufman - Senior Analyst

    Pamela Kaufman - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. And my second question is just on the ERP implementation within snacks. Can you touch on what benefits you expect to realize from it? And what impact is factored into your guidance for this year from the ERP implementation?

    好的。我的第二個問題只是關於零食中的 ERP 實施。您能談談您希望從中獲得哪些好處嗎? ERP 實施對您今年的指導有何影響?

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure. So we have the impact of the transition on ERP baked into the guidance. We've profiled that out across the quarters, including some inventory build in advance of the changeover and then the changeover itself in the back half of the year. But in terms of benefits, it's a critical ingredient to driving efficient scale across that businesses.

    當然。因此,我們將轉型對 ERP 的影響納入了指南。我們已經對各個季度進行了分析,包括在轉換之前建立一些庫存,然後在下半年進行轉換本身。但就收益而言,它是推動整個業務有效擴展的關鍵因素。

  • We touched on that a bit in our investor conference as well. One of our goals is to drive scaled efficiency on all parts of that business on the front end, the supply chain side and so forth. And this system is important to get them on the same system, the rest of the company will operate on, so we can operate the back office efficiently. We can operate the front-end efficiently, have more inventory visibility, better planning capability. And so it is integral. We're excited about it. Everything to date is on track, and we'll look forward to getting that behind us later this year.

    我們在投資者會議上也談到了這一點。我們的目標之一是在前端、供應鍊等方面推動該業務所有部分的規模化效率。而且這個系統很重要,讓他們在同一個系統上,公司的其他人將在同一系統上運作,這樣我們就可以有效地運營後台。我們可以高效地運營前端,擁有更多的庫存可見性,更好的計劃能力。所以它是不可或缺的。我們對此感到興奮。迄今為止的一切都在按計劃進行,我們期待在今年晚些時候將其拋在腦後。

  • Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

    Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

  • And Pam, I think we did on the last call, we might have called out the impact. It's about a 0.5 point headwind for us for the full year related to that transition, all focused in the fourth quarter results.

    帕姆,我想我們在上次電話會議上做了,我們可能已經指出了影響。與該過渡相關的全年對我們來說大約是 0.5 個百分點的逆風,所有這些都集中在第四季度的結果中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Palmer。

  • David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • In your prepared remarks, you mentioned that you'll be in a strong position to fully support consumer demand for the rest of '23. I wonder if you could give some color about that. It's obviously ahead of some of that 5% increase in production that you're expecting to add. So is that the COVID era issues with labor constraints in your supply chain? Is it the upstream suppliers coming through? And I have a quick follow-up.

    在您準備好的發言中,您提到您將在 23 世紀剩餘時間內完全支持消費者需求。我想知道你是否可以給出一些顏色。它顯然領先於您期望增加的 5% 的產量增長。那麼 COVID 時代是否存在供應鏈中的勞動力限制問題?是上游供應商過來的嗎?我有一個快速的跟進。

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. I mean I would say the recovery that we anticipate is really driven by the increasing investments that we've continued to make over the past several years in capacity. Obviously, some of them take some time to be able to get equipment, get it up and running, et cetera. And so that's the point at which we believe we start to get ahead. So I think we've pretty consistently talked about end of '23 and '24 that we anticipate being beyond many of these supply issues. But yes, I would say predominantly, they've been focused on capacity, certainly in the early years, there were some other industry dynamics as well.

    是的。我的意思是我要說的是,我們預期的複蘇實際上是由我們在過去幾年中繼續增加的產能投資推動的。顯然,他們中的一些人需要一些時間才能獲得設備、啟動並運行等等。因此,這就是我們相信我們開始取得成功的時刻。因此,我認為我們一直在談論 23 和 24 年底,我們預計這些供應問題將超出其中許多。但是,是的,我主要要說的是,他們一直專注於產能,當然在早期,還有一些其他行業動態。

  • Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

    Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

  • David, I'm not sure maybe your question, the 5%, just to clarify, that is actually is the pound number, not a sales number, maybe we weren't clear enough in the remarks. So that 5% growth in production counts will be well ahead of what the guidance calls for volume, and that's kind of how we catch up.

    大衛,我不確定你的問題,5% 只是為了澄清一下,這實際上是英鎊數,而不是銷售數,也許我們在備註中不夠清楚。因此,產量增長 5% 將遠遠超過指導要求的產量增長,這就是我們追趕的方式。

  • David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

    David Sterling Palmer - Senior MD & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Got it. And in that capacity that you're ramping up with the 3 new Reese's plants and the one new Hershey plant, will that be more than the 5% into '24 because it's ramping through the year? I'm wondering what's the impact of capacity increase for 2024, do you think?

    知道了。以你正在增加的 3 家新 Reese 工廠和一家新 Hershey 工廠的產能來看,這會超過 24 年的 5%,因為它全年都在增加嗎?我想知道 2024 年產能增加的影響是什麼,您認為如何?

  • Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

    Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

  • There will be a carryover into '24 from those as well as some additional capacity expansions that we have coming online. So there will be a low single-digit increase in pounds production available next year as well from some carryover and some new initiatives.

    這些以及我們已經上線的一些額外的容量擴展將會結轉到 24 年。因此,明年的可用磅產量以及一些結轉和一些新舉措將有較低的個位數增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Max Gumport with BNP Paribas.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Max Gumport 與法國巴黎銀行的合作。

  • Max Andrew Stephen Gumport - Analyst

    Max Andrew Stephen Gumport - Analyst

  • I was hoping you could give us an update on what you're seeing with regard to the retailer pricing environment. It feels like we're seeing more headlines and the media talking about retailers pushing back specifically against packaged food manufacturers, but we're continuing to see companies like yourself getting strong pricing through in quarterly results. So just hoping you can give us some color on this debate that seems to be emerging.

    我希望您能向我們提供有關零售商定價環境的最新信息。感覺我們看到更多的頭條新聞和媒體談論零售商專門反對包裝食品製造商,但我們繼續看到像您這樣的公司在季度業績中獲得強勁的定價。所以只是希望你能給我們一些關於這場似乎正在出現的辯論的色彩。

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • So we always partner very closely with our retail customers to try and do what we believe is best to meet consumer demand and also to drive category growth, which is good for both of us. So we continue to have very collaborative discussions with our retailers relative to our pricing implementation, which also includes a lot of discussion about the rate plans to have business reinvestment that will enable the support of very strong unit conversion.

    因此,我們始終與我們的零售客戶密切合作,嘗試做我們認為最能滿足消費者需求並推動品類增長的事情,這對我們雙方都有好處。因此,我們繼續與我們的零售商就我們的定價實施進行非常協作的討論,其中還包括很多關於進行業務再投資的費率計劃的討論,這將支持非常強大的單位轉換。

  • Max Andrew Stephen Gumport - Analyst

    Max Andrew Stephen Gumport - Analyst

  • And one follow-up on gross margin. I realized it's early in the year in that taking up guidance is a bit unusual, and it speaks to the confidence you have in your outlook but one question I'm getting is that if we look at your gross margin results in the first quarter and think about what your guidance implies for the remainder of the year, it seems like it would imply some sequential step down in gross margins through the year even after taking into account some seasonality. And so I'm just curious what type of factors might be going into those assumptions there?

    以及一項關於毛利率的後續行動。我意識到在今年年初接受指導有點不尋常,這說明你對你的前景充滿信心,但我得到的一個問題是,如果我們看看你在第一季度的毛利率結果和想想你的指導對今年剩餘時間的含義,這似乎意味著即使考慮了一些季節性因素,全年毛利率也會連續下降。所以我很好奇那些假設中可能包含哪些類型的因素?

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. I think the biggest factor is it is still early in the year, we still have a lot to play out. And so we're certainly taking stock to the upside that we saw in the first quarter. But we're still being cautious also on what is to come in the world has changed a lot over these quarters, and still a lot of volatility potentially ahead. And so we're factoring that. And then also as we go forward, particularly in Q4, the laps get tougher. And so that's the other factor weighing in the guidance.

    是的。我認為最大的因素是今年還早,我們還有很多事情要做。因此,我們肯定會在第一季度看到我們看到的上行空間。但我們仍然對世界即將發生的事情持謹慎態度,在這幾個季度中發生了很大變化,並且未來仍可能存在很大的波動。所以我們正在考慮這一點。然後隨著我們前進,特別是在第四季度,圈數變得更加艱難。因此,這是指導中的另一個因素。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

  • Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

    Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

  • I just wanted to ask a question about seasonal. You talked about what part of -- what impacted market share on seasonals in the first quarter was capacity constraints. And I think, right, we've talked about more capacity available for seasonals as we move through the year. So can you just kind of talk about that and how that sets up for especially the fall or the third and fourth quarter and whether you feel like you'll be adequately supplied seasonal product there.

    我只是想問一個關於季節性的問題。你談到了第一季度影響季節性市場份額的部分是產能限制。而且我認為,對,我們已經討論了在一年中移動時可用於季節性的更多容量。那麼你能不能談談這個,以及它是如何為秋季或第三季度和第四季度設置的,以及你是否覺得那裡的季節性產品供應充足。

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes, sure. So absolutely, we believe that with the additional supply that we have ramping up as we go through the year, that we will be in good shape to have a very solid plan to meet Halloween and holiday demand. So some of the issues that we encountered during Easter, we should be passed in the back half.

    是的,當然。因此,我們絕對相信,隨著我們在這一年中增加的額外供應,我們將處於良好狀態,可以製定一個非常可靠的計劃來滿足萬聖節和假期的需求。所以我們在復活節期間遇到的一些問題,我們應該在後半段解決。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Lavery 和 Piper Sandler 的台詞。

  • Michael Scott Lavery - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Michael Scott Lavery - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • In the press release, you had mentioned just the ability to sustain momentum into 2024 and beyond. Obviously, it's early, but just kind of caught my eye that you would call that out. What are you seeing that would drive a reference that's kind of that far ahead? And how much color can you give on how you're thinking about 2024 right now?

    在新聞稿中,您提到了將勢頭保持到 2024 年及以後的能力。顯然,現在還早,但我注意到你會這麼說。你看到什麼會推動一個遙遙領先的參考?您現在對 2024 年的看法有多少?

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • I mean we're not going to give a lot of -- we're not really going to talk about 2024. I mean at the very high level, I'll talk a little bit about the consumer piece, and Steve can talk about the P&L component. But we feel good about the momentum that we're seeing on the business, certainly in terms of consumers' engagement with the category, a lot of the underlying consumer behaviors that we're seeing sustained which continue to support performance.

    我的意思是我們不會給出太多——我們不會真的談論 2024 年。我的意思是在非常高的層面上,我會談談消費者部分,史蒂夫可以談談損益部分。但我們對我們在業務上看到的勢頭感到滿意,當然是在消費者對該類別的參與方面,我們看到許多潛在的消費者行為持續存在,這些行為繼續支持業績。

  • We're continuing to see good response to the investments that we're making in media behind the business across all parts really. I mean, CMG as well as our Salty brands, where we're just getting started on some of the investments in Salty. And certainly, as we saw in the first quarter, momentum in international. So right now, we don't see any big signals that suggest to us any big hurdles on the top line.

    我們繼續看到對我們在所有業務背後的媒體上進行的投資的良好反應。我的意思是,CMG 以及我們的 Salty 品牌,我們才剛剛開始對 Salty 進行一些投資。當然,正如我們在第一季度看到的那樣,國際市場勢頭強勁。所以現在,我們沒有看到任何重大信號向我們暗示頂線有任何重大障礙。

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, I would agree. I'd just point to as Michele said, capacity, having capacity available as we exit the year to be a little bit more on the gaps from that standpoint versus some of the limits we've had here in the last couple of years, the Salty aspirations that we have talked a lot about that at the conference coming off the back of the ERP and rolling into next year. We're excited about that. And then the commercial capabilities that we talked more about at the conference as well, so being able to help drive sustainable growth in the U.S. business, in particular. So those are just some of the reasons that I think we feel pretty good about the momentum.

    是的,我同意。我只想指出,正如 Michele 所說,產能,隨著我們今年結束時的可用產能,從這個角度來看,與過去幾年我們在這裡遇到的一些限制相比,差距會更大一些,我們在 ERP 背後的會議上談到了很多關於這一點的鹹味願望,並將持續到明年。我們對此感到興奮。然後是我們在會議上更多討論的商業能力,因此能夠幫助推動美國業務的可持續增長,尤其如此。所以這些只是我認為我們對勢頭感覺很好的一些原因。

  • Michael Scott Lavery - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Michael Scott Lavery - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • No, that's helpful color. And just a follow-up on dots. We got to see the ads at Investor Day, obviously, and just curious if you have a sense of how big a lift do you think that can drive? And maybe specifically, at least what's factored into your thinking and guidance around that and just sort of -- we've already seen obviously very strong momentum there. How much further can it go? And what's some of how you think about your expectations?

    不,那是有用的顏色。只是對點的跟進。顯然,我們在投資者日看到了廣告,只是好奇你是否知道你認為這能帶來多大的提升?也許具體來說,至少在你的思考和指導中考慮了什麼,我們已經看到了非常強勁的勢頭。它還能走多遠?您如何看待自己的期望?

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • I would say it's too early. We've just started the support on air. We feel very good about all the work that we've done in terms of understanding the Dot's consumer and the consumers' relationship with Dot's. And so we feel good about the messaging direction the creative execution and certainly, it's scored incredibly well and the responsiveness that we tend to see across our snacking categories with advertising investments. So more to come, and we'll share more as we have actual in-market results on that. But we think that will clearly only help us given that we haven't been investing in that brand in the past.

    我會說現在還為時過早。我們剛剛開始直播支持。我們對我們在了解 Dot 的消費者以及消費者與 Dot 的關係方面所做的所有工作感到非常滿意。因此,我們對創意執行的消息傳遞方向感覺良好,當然,它的得分非常高,而且我們傾向於通過廣告投資在我們的零食類別中看到響應能力。未來還會有更多,我們將分享更多,因為我們在這方面有實際的市場結果。但我們認為,鑑於我們過去沒有投資過該品牌,這顯然只會對我們有幫助。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Rob Dickerson with Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Rob Dickerson。

  • Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • All right. Great. Just kind of 2 easy questions. The first is just in international, obviously, impressive on the volume side, but really don't see any incremental pricing year-over-year. So I'm just curious I mean clearly, it's intentional. Just kind of curious as to why that's intentionally why we're not seeing much price in international just kind of given the cost complex and kind of what you've been able to push through in the U.S.? And then I have a quick follow-up.

    好的。偉大的。只是 2 個簡單的問題。第一個只是在國際上,顯然,在數量方面令人印象深刻,但真的沒有看到任何同比增長的定價。所以我很好奇,我的意思很清楚,這是故意的。只是有點好奇為什麼這就是為什麼我們在國際上看不到太多價格的原因只是考慮到成本的複雜性和你在美國能夠推動的那種東西?然後我有一個快速跟進。

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure. We are pursuing a price strategy in international. It's just more modest of what we're seeing so far, and it's offset by some of the other lap that we had in the quarter having some impact on how much of that price is coming through. But we should see more price come through in the next 3 quarters.

    當然。我們在國際上奉行價格策略。到目前為止,這只是我們所看到的更為溫和,並且被我們在本季度的其他一些圈數所抵消,這對價格的多少產生了一些影響。但我們應該會在接下來的三個季度看到更多的價格。

  • Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Robert Frederick Dickerson - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. Fair enough. And then just quickly back to you, Steve, to buying the incremental popcorn facilities, which I get but clearly not that much cash outlay for those facilities. And if we kind of think about where the top line probably is headed in '24 and CapEx gets a little bit better next year. Margins seem decent. There should be a step-up in free cash flow while the balance sheet is strong. So I know you kind of always reiterate kind of your standard issue, capital deployment priorities.

    好的。很公平。然後很快回到你身邊,史蒂夫,購買增量爆米花設施,我得到了但顯然沒有那麼多現金支出用於這些設施。而且,如果我們考慮一下 24 年的頂線可能走向何方,明年的資本支出會有所好轉。利潤率似乎不錯。在資產負債表強勁的情況下,自由現金流應該會增加。所以我知道你總是重申你的標準問題,資本部署優先事項。

  • But would you say kind of at this point, given all the CapEx that's being spent on the new facilities, starting new lines and then the recent -- the acquisition of the new Popcorn facilities, kind of broadly speaking, you feel like you're probably in a pretty good spot in terms of kind of what you need to grow. And therefore, is there a possibility for let's say, other cash deployment, whether be it around the dividend or buybacks or what have you.

    但是你會說在這一點上,考慮到所有的資本支出都花在了新設施上,開始新的生產線,然後是最近——收購新的爆米花設施,從廣義上講,你覺得你是就你需要成長的東西而言,可能處於一個相當不錯的位置。因此,是否有可能進行其他現金部署,無論是圍繞股息還是回購,或者你有什麼。

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure. Yes, great question. So we do feel -- the short answer is, yes, we do feel good with that additional capacity in place or coming in place for the Weaver acquisition will be very helpful to support the growth of that business for a time to come. And I also like the fact that we're buying a well-maintained state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities. While we're not doing that, it's still much more capital efficient than building from whole co-op. And so it is capital efficient to pick up assets this way as well. So as we look to the future, I feel good about the capacity that we're going to have installed on both the confection business and the salty business and that will have an impact on free cash flow as we look to the future.

    當然。是的,很好的問題。所以我們確實覺得 - 簡短的回答是,是的,我們確實對 Weaver 收購的額外產能感到滿意,這將非常有助於在未來一段時間內支持該業務的增長。而且我還喜歡這樣一個事實,即我們正在購買維護良好的最先進的製造設施。雖然我們沒有這樣做,但它仍然比從整個合作社開始建設更具資本效率。因此,以這種方式獲取資產也具有資本效率。因此,當我們展望未來時,我對我們將在糖果業務和鹹味業務上安裝的能力感到滿意,這將在我們展望未來時對自由現金流產生影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Feeney with Consumer Edge.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 Jonathan Feeney。

  • Jonathan Patrick Feeney - Senior Analyst of Food & HPC, Director of research and Managing Partner

    Jonathan Patrick Feeney - Senior Analyst of Food & HPC, Director of research and Managing Partner

  • Could you comment on the role of, say, not just recent distribution growth, but distribution growth over the last 12 to 18 months in the salty snack business driving that really outsized volume growth because I guess I'm trying to understand how -- when you take these products, whether it's Dot's most recently or others into new markets. Is there a necessary decay curve like you have all this renovation in the Hershey capabilities and then that kind of seasons and it slows down. What data or insight can you offer to help us understand that and maybe to think about what a sustainable organic volume growth looks like for salty snacks going forward.

    你能否評論一下,不僅僅是最近的分銷增長,還有過去 12 到 18 個月在鹹味零食業務中的分銷增長推動了真正超額的銷量增長,因為我想我試圖了解如何 - 何時您將這些產品帶到新市場,無論是 Dot 的最新產品還是其他產品。是否存在必要的衰減曲線,就像您對 Hershey 功能進行了所有這些翻新,然後是那種季節,它會減慢。您可以提供哪些數據或見解來幫助我們理解這一點,並可能思考鹹味零食未來的可持續有機銷量增長是什麼樣的。

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes, absolutely. So clearly, distribution is job one when we buy a business like this. I mean that's one of our key strengths and we want to fully utilize it. So on Dot's in particular, there were really opportunities to kind of fill in on distribution. Previously, they really didn't have a very large Walmart business, and they were underdeveloped in the Northeast. So that's been a big area of focus, and that certainly has driven has been a key driver of the business, but we've also seen increases in velocity at the same time, given the very strong repeat potential that we see from consumers behind this product.

    是的,一點沒錯。很明顯,當我們購買這樣的企業時,分銷是首要任務。我的意思是這是我們的主要優勢之一,我們希望充分利用它。因此,特別是在 Dot's 上,確實有機會填補分佈。之前,他們確實沒有非常大的沃爾瑪業務,而且在東北也不發達。所以這是一個很大的關注領域,這當然已經成為業務的關鍵驅動力,但我們同時也看到了速度的提高,因為我們從消費者那裡看到了非常強大的重複潛力。產品。

  • Then as you think about the growth trajectory over time, I would kind of describe it as it basically will evolve in terms of what the drivers are. So as we fill out the distribution we start to really employ our category management capability relative to optimizing the shelf. As you saw in March, we then start to apply our media capability with advertising behind the brand to really increase awareness and household penetration. And then beyond that, the other kind of key focus is relative to price pack architecture and other drivers.

    然後當你考慮隨著時間的推移增長軌跡時,我會描述它,因為它基本上會根據驅動因素而演變。因此,當我們填寫分佈時,我們開始真正利用與優化貨架相關的類別管理能力。正如您在 3 月份看到的那樣,我們隨後開始將我們的媒體能力應用於品牌背後的廣告,以真正提高知名度和家庭滲透率。除此之外,另一種重點關注的是價格包架構和其他驅動因素。

  • So I think where we'll see the revenue coming from, it will continue, but we will apply the other capabilities we have to really generate that. And as we mentioned at Investor Day, we do anticipate seeing growth in that 15% kind of range for the next few years. And then -- but a deceleration from the 20-plus percent that we've seen more recently.

    所以我認為我們將看到收入的來源,它將繼續,但我們將應用我們必須真正產生的其他能力。正如我們在投資者日提到的那樣,我們確實預計未來幾年會出現 15% 的增長。然後——但比我們最近看到的 20% 以上有所減速。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of John Baumgartner with Mizuho Securities USA.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國瑞穗證券公司的 John Baumgartner。

  • John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

    John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

  • Maybe just building on John's question, Michele, sticking with the salty snacks distribution. I know the focus here is building availability in mass and grocery, but the ACV opportunity seems pretty significant in C-stores as well. Are there any considerations whether it's just lodging competitors or the route to market that you need DSD given the velocity. That maybe makes the path to building ACV in C-stores a bit slower for these categories. Just how are you thinking about closing that distribution gap in C-stores over time?

    也許只是基於 John 的問題,Michele,堅持分發鹹味零食。我知道這裡的重點是在大眾和雜貨店建立可用性,但 ACV 機會在 C 店中似乎也非常重要。考慮到速度,是否有任何考慮因素,無論是吸引競爭對手還是您需要 DSD 的市場途徑。對於這些類別,這可能會使在 C 商店中構建 ACV 的路徑變得更慢。隨著時間的推移,您如何考慮縮小 C 店的分銷差距?

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Well, C-store is really a core capability for the company for our base core CMG business. So certainly, we realize its importance in reaching certain specific consumers and really certain specific occasions when consumers are out and about. So it is a priority for us. We have been focused on that I think in SkinnyPop, we are certainly making progress, but there's more opportunity to go. And so it will remain a focus for us going forward.

    嗯,C-store 確實是我們公司基本核心 CMG 業務的核心能力。所以當然,我們意識到它在接觸某些特定消費者以及消費者外出時的某些特定場合的重要性。所以這是我們的首要任務。我們一直專注於我認為在 SkinnyPop 中,我們當然正在取得進步,但還有更多的機會去。因此,它仍將是我們前進的重點。

  • I don't know if I'd say that there is any key barrier. Certainly, there are folks who have DSD capability more broadly but we've done a good job with our CMG business where we don't have it building distribution in convenience stores. So we feel very good about that. And then across our salty snacks network, we do have both warehouse and DSD capability, and we're really working right now to optimize how we best utilize each to maximize the potential of the business.

    我不知道我是否會說存在任何關鍵障礙。當然,有些人擁有更廣泛的 DSD 能力,但我們在 CMG 業務方面做得很好,我們沒有在便利店建立分銷。所以我們對此感覺很好。然後在我們的鹹味零食網絡中,我們確實擁有倉庫和 DSD 能力,我們現在真的在努力優化我們如何最好地利用每個人來最大限度地發揮業務潛力。

  • John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

    John Joseph Baumgartner - MD & Senior Consumer Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then in terms of the popcorn assets that you're acquiring, in addition to just the pure growth in volume capacity, is there anything to augment our capabilities, whether it's pack size or anything else in terms of opportunities there?

    好的。然後就您正在收購的爆米花資產而言,除了容量的純粹增長之外,還有什麼可以增強我們的能力,無論是包裝尺寸還是其他任何機會?

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Beyond just the capacity, one of the things that gives us the opportunity to optimize the supply chain network more broadly. So if you think to the future, other assets potentially coming in, you can think about some of the strategies we talked about around price pack architecture and being able to make sure we got the right packs and mixes to support the business going forward. So by having all of that in our hands and our control just gives us more flexibility and agility to deliver that growth plan.

    是的。除了產能之外,其中一件事讓我們有機會更廣泛地優化供應鍊網絡。因此,如果您考慮到未來可能會出現其他資產,您可以考慮我們圍繞價格包架構討論的一些策略,並能夠確保我們獲得正確的包和組合以支持未來的業務發展。因此,通過將所有這些掌握在我們手中,我們的控制權只會讓我們更加靈活和敏捷地實現該增長計劃。

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes. And as I mentioned earlier, we do have -- that gives us capacity ahead of demand. So it gives us that trajectory for the next few years.

    是的。正如我之前提到的,我們確實有——這讓我們的產能領先於需求。因此,它為我們提供了未來幾年的發展軌跡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jason English with Goldman Sachs。

  • Jason M. English - VP

    Jason M. English - VP

  • A couple of quick questions. So Colgate just recently did something similar in fast food in terms of going out and buying some capacity. When that came into the fold, there was a lot of other products that it was making it created some margin distortion near term. Is there anything to be aware of, like AC similar on that front with the Weaver acquisition?

    幾個簡單的問題。因此,高露潔最近在外出和購買一些容量方面在快餐行業做了類似的事情。當它出現時,它正在製造的許多其他產品在短期內造成了一些利潤率扭曲。有什麼需要注意的嗎,比如 AC 在 Weaver 收購方面的類似之處?

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • No. I mean the bulk of the capacity is ready to eat popcorn so it didn't really come with a big negative overhang other than that there will be excess unused capacity for a while so that there's some fixed overhead there.

    不,我的意思是大部分容量已經準備好吃爆米花了,所以它並沒有真正帶來很大的負面影響,除了一段時間內會有多餘的未使用容量,所以那裡有一些固定的開銷。

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, some fixed overhead and some transition costs that would be normal, but not a portfolio overhang like you're referencing, Jason.

    是的,一些固定的管理費用和一些正常的過渡成本,但不是像你所引用的投資組合過剩,Jason。

  • Jason M. English - VP

    Jason M. English - VP

  • And then bigger picture question. You've got -- as you mentioned, elasticity has been very low. That's not a Hershey comment or even a confection comments, the industry comment because we have had a lot of cross price less if you would ever move in the same direction. It sounds like in '24, you're kind of break from the pack and push through quite a bit of pricing at a time where we're not expecting a lot from the industry at large. So how are you managing those cross-price elasticities, which category should we be watching where you tend to see switching between confection. And I'll leave it there.

    然後是更大的問題。你有——正如你提到的,彈性一直很低。這不是 Hershey 的評論,甚至不是糖果評論,而是行業評論,因為如果你朝同一個方向前進,我們的交叉價格就會少很多。聽起來像是在 24 世紀,你有點與眾不同,在我們對整個行業期望不高的時候推出了相當多的定價。那麼你如何管理這些交叉價格彈性,我們應該關注哪個類別,你往往會看到糖果之間的轉換。我會把它留在那裡。

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, I would say first of all, it's a little early yet to be starting to think about the cross elasticities for '24. You're right. We're trying to think ahead in terms of the pricing strategy. We're also watching the commodity space like we talked about earlier in some of the upward movements on cocoa and sugar. And so I think that's getting us in a good starting position. But then what happens to the other categories and peers is all yet to be seen. And we'll be able to communicate more on that obviously as we probably turn the corner and get back half, but Melissa anything to add.

    是的,我首先要說的是,現在開始考慮 24 年的交叉彈性還為時過早。你說得對。我們正試圖在定價策略方面提前考慮。我們也在關注商品空間,就像我們之前在可可和糖的一些上漲趨勢中談到的那樣。所以我認為這讓我們處於一個良好的起點。但是其他類別和同行會發生什麼還有待觀察。很明顯,我們將能夠就此進行更多溝通,因為我們可能會轉過彎並回到一半,但 Melissa 有什麼要補充的。

  • Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

    Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

  • Yes. The one piece I might add is just, I would just kind of come through a little bit slower and more elongated because of the timing it takes for us to implement, particularly with seasons. So kind of as we think about '24 pricing, we won't have an outsized price gap versus kind of pre-pandemic levels versus a lot of our competition. As you see, many of them are posting high teens or 20% pricing versus us at 10%. So some of -- just ours is a little bit more spread out, but we will certainly be watching it very closely and particularly within snacking to look at where the share of stomach is going and how those across the elasticities progress.

    是的。我可能要補充的一點是,由於我們實施所需的時間,尤其是在季節方面,我會稍微慢一點,拉長一點。就像我們考慮 24 小時定價一樣,與大流行前的水平和我們的許多競爭對手相比,我們不會有過大的價格差距。如您所見,他們中的許多人都發布了高青少年或 20% 的定價,而我們的定價為 10%。所以一些 - 只有我們的有點分散,但我們肯定會非常密切地觀察它,特別是在吃零食的時候,看看胃的份額在哪裡,以及那些跨越彈性的進展。

  • Jason M. English - VP

    Jason M. English - VP

  • Yes, that's a good point.

    是的,這是一個很好的觀點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Chris Carey。

  • Christopher Michael Carey - Senior Equity Analyst

    Christopher Michael Carey - Senior Equity Analyst

  • I just have a question on confection margins, very strong in the quarter. Even despite a tough year ago compare, pricing is clearly building how should we be thinking about confection margins not just this year, but certainly over time, as it seems like it's coming through very strongly with pricing and costs perhaps are easing. And so again, just a trajectory of confection margins would be helpful.

    我只是有一個關於糖果利潤率的問題,這個季度非常強勁。儘管一年前比較艱難,但定價顯然正在建立我們應該如何考慮糖果利潤率,不僅是今年,而且肯定會隨著時間的推移,因為它似乎在定價方面表現非常強勁,而且成本可能正在下降。因此,再一次,只有糖果利潤率的軌跡會有所幫助。

  • And I think you had mentioned some inflation in cocoa and sugar. Just remind us of your duration on those hedges and when we might be seeing that inflation coming through? And just so we can kind of assess when the pricing might be needed to offset it.

    我想你提到過可可和糖的一些通貨膨脹。只是提醒我們你在這些對沖上的持續時間,以及我們什麼時候可能會看到通貨膨脹?這樣我們就可以評估何時可能需要定價來抵消它。

  • Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

    Steven E. Voskuil - Senior VP & CFO

  • Sure. I'll take the last piece first. Just on cocoa and sugar, we don't get specific on the duration of our hedging programs. Obviously, for those 2 commodities, we do some hedging. But we don't share the duration. We do expect to see potentially more impact in '24 than '23, but we'll see how the markets play out.

    當然。我先拿最後一塊。就可可和糖而言,我們沒有具體說明對沖計劃的持續時間。顯然,對於這兩種商品,我們進行了一些對沖。但是我們不共享持續時間。我們確實希望在 24 年看到比 23 年更大的影響,但我們將看到市場如何發揮作用。

  • On pricing, just more generally, as we talked about at the investor conference, our goal is to always have a mix of volume and price. That's part of the balance in our growth formula. And as part of that, we also want to see margin accretion over time for both sources. And so confection margins have been strong, but even in the future across all levers of pricing, including price pack architecture and mix and other things we want to continue to put upward pressure on our margins because that's part of our growth formula, so.

    在定價方面,更一般地說,正如我們在投資者會議上談到的那樣,我們的目標是始終保持數量和價格的混合。這是我們增長公式中平衡的一部分。作為其中的一部分,我們還希望看到這兩個來源的利潤率隨著時間的推移而增加。因此,糖果的利潤率一直很高,但即使在未來,包括價格包架構和組合以及其他我們希望繼續對我們的利潤率施加上行壓力的所有定價槓桿,因為這是我們增長公式的一部分,所以。

  • Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

    Michele Gross Buck - Chairman, President & CEO

  • And we continue to see some of our inputs right, cocoa and sugar recently, which is one of the reasons that we decided to lean into that more recent pricing actions.

    而且我們最近繼續看到我們的一些投入是正確的,可可和糖,這是我們決定採取最近的定價行動的原因之一。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Melissa Poole for closing remarks.

    我們已經結束了問答環節。我現在將電話轉回 Melissa Poole 以作結束語。

  • Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

    Melissa Poole - VP of IR & Corporate Finance

  • Yes. Thanks so much for joining us this morning and all the great questions and the continued interest and investment in our company. So I'll be available today and in the coming weeks to answer any additional follow-ups you may have. Thanks so much. Have a great day.

    是的。非常感謝今天早上加入我們,感謝所有重要的問題以及對我們公司的持續興趣和投資。因此,我今天和未來幾週內可以回答您可能有的任何其他後續問題。非常感謝。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

    今天的會議到此結束,此時你們可以掛斷電話。感謝您的參與。