Anywhere Real Estate Inc (HOUS) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Anywhere Real Estate Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call via webcast. Today's call is being recorded, and a written transcript will be made available in the Investor Information section of the company's website tomorrow. A webcast replay will also be made available on the company's website. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Anywhere Senior Vice President Alicia Swift. Please go ahead, Alicia.

早上好，歡迎通過網絡直播參加 Anywhere Real Estate 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音中，明天將在公司網站的投資者信息部分提供書面記錄。網絡廣播重播也將在公司網站上提供。現在，我想將會議轉交給 Anywhere 高級副總裁 Alicia Swift。請繼續，艾麗西亞。

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call for Anywhere Real Estate. On the call with me today are Anywhere CEO and President Ryan Schneider; and Chief Financial Officer Charlotte Simonelli. As shown on Slide 3 of the presentation, the company will be making statements about its future results and other forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on the current expectations and the current economic environment. Forward-looking statements and projections are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive litigation, regulatory and other uncertainties, and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of management, including, among others, rising inflation and mortgage rates, constrained inventory, declining affordability, and other macroeconomic concerns as well as the impact of the foregoing on consumer demand. 

謝謝你，克里斯。早上好，歡迎來到 Anywhere Real Estate 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天與我通話的有 Anywhere 首席執行官兼總裁 Ryan Schneider；和首席財務官夏洛特西蒙內利。如演示文稿的幻燈片 3 所示，公司將在本次電話會議期間就其未來業績和其他前瞻性陳述發表聲明。這些陳述是基於當前的預期和當前的經濟環境。前瞻性陳述和預測本質上會受到重大經濟、競爭性訴訟、監管和其他不確定因素以及意外事件的影響，其中許多是管理層無法控制的，包括通貨膨脹和抵押貸款利率上升、庫存受限、負擔能力下降等和其他宏觀經濟問題以及上述對消費者需求的影響。

Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. For those who listen to this rebroadcast of this presentation, we remind you that the remarks made herein are as of today, October 27, and have not been updated subsequent to the initial earnings call. Important assumptions and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are specified in our earnings release issued today as well as in our annual and quarterly SEC filings. Now I will turn the call over to our CEO and President, Ryan Schneider.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。對於那些收聽此演示文稿重播的人，我們提醒您，此處發表的評論截至今天，即 10 月 27 日，並沒有在首次財報電話會議後更新。可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的重要假設和其他因素在我們今天發布的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度文件中有所說明。現在我將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官兼總裁 Ryan Schneider。

Thank you, Alicia. We delivered meaningful Q3 profitability even in a clearly challenging housing market. We began to see the competitive environment shift in our favor and our position of strength allows us to invest for growth in our core business and to simplify the consumer experience of buying and selling a home. The biggest challenge today is the rapid deterioration of the housing market. Our Q3 transaction volume was down 17%, consistent with our down 10% to 20% estimate. But the market is, unfortunately, worsening beyond that. based off what we're seeing in the market today, including our September and October open contracts, we're seeing more like over 25% volume reductions driven by lower unit sales, and recent third-party forecasts predict lower 2023 volume, driven by a decline in unit sales versus their 2022 forecast. 

謝謝你，艾麗西亞。即使在一個明顯具有挑戰性的房地產市場中，我們也實現了可觀的第三季度盈利。我們開始看到競爭環境對我們有利，我們的優勢地位使我們能夠投資於核心業務的增長，並簡化消費者買賣房屋的體驗。今天最大的挑戰是房地產市場的迅速惡化。我們第三季度的交易量下降了 17%，與我們下降 10% 至 20% 的預期一致。但不幸的是，市場正在惡化。根據我們今天在市場上看到的情況，包括我們 9 月和 10 月的未平倉合約，我們看到銷量下降更多是由於單位銷量下降，而最近的第三方預測預測 2023 年銷量下降，原因是與他們的 2022 年預測相比，單位銷售額有所下降。

Now the macroeconomic drivers of this falloff in housing activity are not a mystery, with mortgage rates more than doubling to now at or above 7%, affordability challenges given the rise in home prices, and economic uncertainty anchored in high inflation. And beyond those macro factors, I can't emphasize enough how the continued lack of inventory contributes to this drop-off. Many homeowners are locked into their current homes with low mortgage rates, creating a barrier to new supply coming onto the market. And even before mortgage rates increased, we already had a lack of inventory problem, especially in the highest-demand entry-level part of the market and in many of the more attractive destination geographies. So while a challenging macro housing outlook for the rest of '22 and 2023 is clearly disappointing, we are confronting it head-on and making a series of moves to both deliver financially and to expand our competitive differentiation. Before I talk more about that future, let me share our Q3 results. 

現在，這種住房活動下降的宏觀經濟驅動因素已不是什麼謎，抵押貸款利率翻了一番以上，達到或超過 7%，房價上漲帶來的負擔能力挑戰，以及高通脹帶來的經濟不確定性。除了這些宏觀因素之外，我怎麼強調庫存的持續不足是如何導致這種下降的。許多房主被低抵押貸款利率鎖定在現有房屋中，從而阻礙了新供應進入市場。甚至在抵押貸款利率上升之前，我們就已經存在庫存不足的問題，尤其是在市場需求最高的入門級部分和許多更具吸引力的目的地地區。因此，儘管 22 年剩餘時間和 2023 年充滿挑戰的宏觀住房前景顯然令人失望，但我們正直面它，並採取一系列措施來實現財務目標並擴大我們的競爭優勢。在我更多地談論未來之前，讓我分享一下我們第三季度的結果。

We earned $166 million of operating EBITDA in the quarter. Our business delivered well above that number, but it was reduced by us taking several legal accruals in the quarter. These earnings are a powerful financial result on both an absolute basis and relative to our competition. We delivered $1.8 billion in revenue. Our transaction volume was down 17% year-over-year, consistent with the range we estimated during Q2 earnings. Our owned brokerage volume performed a bit better than our franchise business. Our luxury leadership position was one of the more important drivers of that difference as we consistently saw less decline in the 750 and up the segment of the market in both our transactions and in our listings.

我們在本季度獲得了 1.66 億美元的運營 EBITDA。我們的業務交付量遠高於該數字，但由於我們在本季度進行了多項法定應計費用，因此有所減少。這些收入無論是在絕對基礎上還是相對於我們的競爭而言都是一個強大的財務結果。我們實現了 18 億美元的收入。我們的交易量同比下降 17%，與我們在第二季度財報中估計的範圍一致。我們自有經紀業務的表現略好於我們的特許經營業務。我們的奢侈品領導地位是造成這種差異的更重要的驅動因素之一，因為在我們的交易和上市中，我們始終看到 750 及以上市場細分市場的跌幅較小。

Second, we are seeing pretty meaningful geographic variation with about 25% volume declines in the west, but only kind of high single-digit declines in places like the Midwest and the Northeast. And we're also seeing the same geographic variations in the dynamics of the market. So taking Cobalt banker as an example, average days on the market in Q3 increased 5% versus the prior year to 20 days overall. While average days on the market stayed flat in the Northeast but increased by 11 days in the West. But to put it in context, that 20 average days on the market is still substantially lower than more normalized years like 2019, when it was 30 days. 

其次，我們看到了相當有意義的地理差異，西部地區的銷量下降了約 25%，但在中西部和東北部等地區僅出現了個位數的高跌幅。我們也看到了市場動態的相同地域差異。因此，以 Cobalt banker 為例，Q3 的平均上市天數比上一年增加了 5%，達到 20 天。東北地區平均待售天數持平，但西部地區增加了 11 天。但綜合來看，20 天的平均上市天數仍遠低於 2019 年等更正常化的年份，當時為 30 天。

Now finally, through all this, we remain laser-focused on costs. As we've seen the housing market worsen, we increased our cost reduction even more during Q3, as Charlotte will discuss later in the call. Now looking forward, as we head into a worsening housing market, we continue to be proactive in preparing for that environment. So first, our commitment to increasing our efficiency is absolutely at the top of the list. Not only have we focused on cost reduction every year for the past 4 years, but in both Q2 and here again in Q3, we increased our cost reduction for this year as we saw the market deteriorate. Second, our Investor Day highlighted the scale advantages and the growth opportunity from integrating our brokerage title and mortgage services. There are also speed and synergy opportunities from that integration, and we have begun operationally integrating our Cubo Banker-owned brokerage with our title and mortgage JV, which should pay off in both faster service delivery and greater efficiency. 

現在終於，通過這一切，我們仍然高度關注成本。正如我們看到房地產市場惡化一樣，我們在第三季度進一步增加了成本削減，正如夏洛特將在電話會議稍後討論的那樣。現在展望未來，隨著我們進入不斷惡化的房地產市場，我們將繼續積極主動地為這種環境做準備。因此，首先，我們對提高效率的承諾絕對是最重要的。在過去的 4 年裡，我們不僅每年都專注於降低成本，而且在第二季度和第三季度，我們在看到市場惡化的情況下增加了今年的成本削減。其次，我們的投資者日強調了整合我們的經紀業務和抵押服務的規模優勢和增長機會。這種整合也帶來了速度和協同效應的機會，我們已經開始將我們的 Cubo Banker 擁有的經紀業務與我們的產權和抵押合資企業進行運營整合，這應該會在更快的服務交付和更高的效率方面得到回報。

Third, we remain very disciplined with our investments. We continue to selectively invest to grow and to improve the consumer experience. And as we've seen the market worsening, we have pulled back on some investments where the ROI isn't as attractive in a weaker market. And the largest examples of that will show up in our lower marketing expenses and our reduced capital expenditures. And fourth, as you know from our SEC filings, there are a large number of industry class action lawsuits as well as additional litigation facing the company. Two have trial dates set in the next 6 months. All these cases are complex and constantly evolving. And while we're vigorously defending these lawsuits and believe we have substantial defenses, we increased our legal accruals for several matters in Q3. And then, fifth and finally, we are proactively redeeming the outstanding balance on our 2023 notes in November. 

第三，我們在投資方面仍然非常自律。我們繼續有選擇地投資以發展和改善消費者體驗。當我們看到市場惡化時，我們已經撤回了一些在疲軟市場中投資回報率不那麼有吸引力的投資。最大的例子將體現在我們較低的營銷費用和減少的資本支出中。第四，正如您從我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中了解到的，公司面臨大量行業集體訴訟以及其他訴訟。其中兩個的試用日期定在未來 6 個月內。所有這些案例都很複雜且不斷演變。雖然我們正在大力捍衛這些訴訟並相信我們有充分的辯護，但我們在第三季度增加了幾個事項的合法應計費用。然後，第五次也是最後一次，我們將在 11 月主動贖回 2023 年票據的未償餘額。

Now on the growth side, we see the competitive environment improving to our benefit, and we are working hard to create competitive differentiation in this current part of the market so that we emerge even stronger on both an absolute and a relative basis as the market improves. We like how our products and technology, our value proposition, and our profitability are making a difference. So to start, we really like our franchise results and how we're leveraging the better competitive environment to outperform 2021 on 2 critical metrics.

現在在增長方面，我們看到競爭環境的改善對我們有利，我們正在努力在當前的市場部分創造競爭差異化，以便隨著市場的改善，我們在絕對和相對基礎上變得更加強大.我們喜歡我們的產品和技術、我們的價值主張和我們的盈利能力如何發揮作用。因此，首先，我們非常喜歡我們的特許經營業績，以及我們如何利用更好的競爭環境在 2021 年的兩個關鍵指標上表現出色。

As you saw at our Investor Day, we continue to have success growing through franchise sales. We are running ahead of last year's numbers, including our Corken franchise expanding into its 50th market since launching 2 years ago. And one thing we didn't discuss at Investor Day is renewals. And both last year and this year featured over $1 billion of gross commission income renewals through Q3, with 2022 pacing slightly ahead of 2021. Second, we saw a better competitive environment in our owned brokerage recruiting and retention. We analyzed MLS data to determine everyone in the industry's net gain of agent production from recruiting and retention, and we were really excited for our own brokerage business to be at the top of the list across the industry for the quarter. Our relocation business continues to gain share by signing several new clients, including a global Fortune 25 account, and expanding services with over 50 existing clients. 

正如您在我們的投資者日看到的那樣，我們繼續通過特許經營銷售取得成功。我們正在超越去年的數字，包括我們的 Corken 特許經營權自 2 年前推出以來擴展到第 50 個市場。我們在投資者日沒有討論的一件事是續約。去年和今年第三季度的續約佣金收入總額均超過 10 億美元，2022 年的步伐略早於 2021 年。其次，我們在自有經紀業務的招聘和保留方面看到了更好的競爭環境。我們分析了 MLS 數據，以確定行業中每個人從招聘和保留中獲得的代理生產淨收益，我們非常高興我們自己的經紀業務在本季度名列全行業榜首。我們的搬遷業務通過與包括全球財富 25 強客戶在內的多個新客戶簽約，並擴大與 50 多個現有客戶的服務，繼續擴大市場份額。

And our current successes are driven by the great talent at our company, as we were just recognized again this year by Forbes as the world's best employer. I'm proud we were able to achieve solid financial results in the quarter. Going forward, our most important focus is on the challenging environment ahead, executing cost savings, making prudent growth investments, and capitalizing on the better competitive dynamics to set us up for even stronger outcomes and greater competitive differentiation as the market improves. Now I will turn it over to Charlotte to discuss more details about Q3, and then I'll come back at the end to make a few more comments on the longer term.

我們目前的成功是由我們公司的優秀人才推動的，因為我們今年剛剛再次被福布斯評為全球最佳雇主。我很自豪我們能夠在本季度取得穩健的財務業績。展望未來，我們最重要的重點是應對未來充滿挑戰的環境，執行成本節約，進行審慎的增長投資，並利用更好的競爭動態，讓我們在市場改善時取得更強大的成果和更大的競爭優勢。現在我將把它交給夏洛特來討論有關第三季度的更多細節，然後我會在最後回來就長期問題發表更多評論。

Good morning, everyone. As Ryan said, we are proud of our results delivery, and we are well-equipped to navigate today's environment. Our competitive differentiation is driven by our well-established profitability, strong balance sheet and liquidity, and our proven track record to deliver efficiencies in our cost structure. Last quarter, we announced an additional $70 million of cost savings, putting our full-year target north of $140 million. We are on track to realize the entire amount this year, plus incremental new actions, which increased our full-year 2022 savings target to over $150 million. We expect about 1/3 of the additional $80 million of savings will be permanent, and this is on top of the $240 million of permanent savings we have taken out of the business over the past 3 years. 

大家，早安。正如 Ryan 所說，我們為我們的成果交付感到自豪，並且我們有能力駕馭當今的環境。我們的競爭差異化源於我們穩固的盈利能力、強大的資產負債表和流動性，以及我們在提高成本結構效率方面的良好記錄。上個季度，我們宣布額外節省 7000 萬美元的成本，使我們的全年目標超過 1.4 億美元。我們有望在今年實現全部金額，再加上漸進的新行動，將我們的 2022 年全年節約目標提高到超過 1.5 億美元。我們預計額外節省的 8000 萬美元中約有 1/3 將是永久性節省，這是我們在過去 3 年中從業務中獲得的 2.4 億美元永久性節省的基礎。

The remaining portion of the savings in 2022 are temporary and were actioned in response to temporary shifts in the housing market. With some of the cost savings actions coming much later in the year, the 2023 run rate benefit for those actions is worth about $70 million. We are also beginning to identify more structural savings tied to the strategy we shared with you at Investor Day, and I will provide further information about our full-year 2023 savings target in next quarter's call.

2022 年的剩餘部分儲蓄是暫時的，是為了應對房地產市場的暫時變化而採取的行動。由於一些成本節約行動將在今年晚些時候實施，這些行動在 2023 年的運行率收益約為 7000 萬美元。我們還開始確定與我們在投資者日與您分享的戰略相關的更多結構性儲蓄，我將在下一季度的電話會議上提供有關我們 2023 年全年儲蓄目標的更多信息。

The integration of our brokerage and title operations is another great example of how we are changing the way we operate to make us faster, more efficient and to deliver on the future we outlined during Investor Day. These businesses represent about 70% of our cost base and the lion's share of our customer interactions across the business, and we are excited by this opportunity. As we integrate these businesses, we plan to report the brokerage and title Financial segments combined together in our full-year 2022 results and going forward. With that context, I will now briefly highlight our Q3 financial results. 

我們的經紀和產權業務的整合是另一個很好的例子，說明我們如何改變我們的運營方式，使我們更快、更高效，並實現我們在投資者日概述的未來。這些業務約占我們成本基礎的 70%，也是我們整個業務中客戶互動的最大份額，我們對這個機會感到興奮。在我們整合這些業務時，我們計劃在 2022 年全年和未來的業績中報告經紀業務和產權金融業務。在這種背景下，我現在將簡要強調我們第三季度的財務業績。

Q3 revenue was $1.8 billion, down 17%, in line with our transaction volume decline. Q3 operating EBITDA was $166 million, down due to lower transaction volume, higher agent commission costs, and a decline in the title, offset in part by favorable relocation earnings driven by strong volume growth. Our results were also impacted by the legal accruals Ryan referred to earlier. Cash on hand at the end of Q3 was $272 million, and free cash flow was $99 million. We ended Q3 with a senior secured leverage ratio of 0.02x and a net debt leverage ratio of 3.8x. Free cash flow in the quarter was down versus the prior year due to lower earnings and working capital timing. Our Anywhere Brands business, which includes leads and relocation, generated $202 million in operating EBITDA in the quarter. Operating EBITDA decreased primarily due to lower revenue related to transaction volume declines, partially offset by a decrease in operating and marketing costs. 

第三季度收入為 18 億美元，下降 17%，與我們的交易量下降一致。第三季度運營 EBITDA 為 1.66 億美元，下降的原因是交易量下降、代理佣金成本上升以及所有權下降，部分被強勁的銷量增長推動的有利搬遷收益所抵消。我們的結果也受到 Ryan 之前提到的法定應計費用的影響。第三季度末手頭現金為 2.72 億美元，自由現金流為 9900 萬美元。我們以 0.02 倍的高級擔保槓桿比率和 3.8 倍的淨債務槓桿比率結束了第三季度。由於收益和營運資本時間的減少，本季度的自由現金流量較上年同期有所下降。我們的 Anywhere Brands 業務（包括銷售線索和搬遷）在本季度產生了 2.02 億美元的運營 EBITDA。經營 EBITDA 下降的主要原因是與交易量下降相關的收入減少，部分被經營和營銷成本的下降所抵消。

Our relocation business substantially outperformed 2021, driven by strong client initiations. Our Anywhere Advisors business generated negative $1 million in operating EBITDA in the quarter and $96 million before the transfer of intercompany royalties and marketing fees paid to our franchise business. Our agent base was up 7% year-over-year like-for-like, with all 3 brands delivering agent growth. Commission split increases were up 215 basis points year-over-year but down 15 basis points in absolute terms versus Q2 and continued to sequentially moderate as expected. 

在強大的客戶啟動的推動下，我們的搬遷業務的表現大大優於 2021 年。我們的 Anywhere Advisors 業務在本季度產生負 100 萬美元的運營 EBITDA，在轉移支付給我們的特許經營業務的公司間特許權使用費和營銷費用之前為 9600 萬美元。我們的代理商基礎同比增長 7%，所有 3 個品牌都實現了代理商增長。佣金分成同比增長 215 個基點，但絕對值與第二季度相比下降 15 個基點，並繼續按預期持續放緩。

We are seeing a recent positive change in the competitive market in what it is taking to attract and retain agents. And if this dynamic continues, we expect the split environment to improve over time. This split moderation will also be driven by continued volume declines as commission tables reset. And this will be partially offset by the amortization of previous agent investments as well as agent mix as we expect our highest producers, who are in the highest split rates, to continue to drive more of the volume. Anywhere Integrated Services delivered $9 million in operating EBITDA in Q3.

我們看到競爭市場最近在吸引和留住代理商方面發生了積極變化。如果這種動態持續下去，我們預計分裂環境會隨著時間的推移而改善。隨著佣金表重置，交易量持續下降也將推動這種分裂緩和。這將被之前代理人投資的攤銷以及代理人組合部分抵消，因為我們預計我們的最高生產商，他們的分拆率最高，將繼續推動更多的交易量。 Anywhere Integrated Services 在第三季度實現了 900 萬美元的運營 EBITDA。

Operating EBITDA declined $45 million year-over-year due to lower resale and refinance volumes, lower earnings due to the tighter underwriter sale, and lower mortgage JV earnings as seen across the entire mortgage industry driven by massively rising rates and margin compression. We believe our profitability is a competitive advantage. We are pleased with the progress we have made on our balance sheet. We have a long-dated maturity stack and have lowered our cost of capital. We have $272 million of cash on the balance sheet. As Ryan mentioned, we are executing on our promise to address the 2023 notes. We opportunistically repurchased about $7 million in Q3 in the open market, and we issued a notice to redeem the remaining 2023 notes on November 17. 

營業 EBITDA 同比下降 4500 萬美元，原因是轉售和再融資量減少，承銷商銷售收緊導致收益下降，以及整個抵押貸款行業因利率大幅上升和利潤率壓縮而降低的抵押貸款合資企業收益。我們相信我們的盈利能力是一種競爭優勢。我們對我們在資產負債表上取得的進展感到滿意。我們有一個長期的到期堆棧，並降低了我們的資本成本。我們的資產負債表上有 2.72 億美元的現金。正如 Ryan 提到的，我們正在履行解決 2023 年票據的承諾。我們在第三季度在公開市場上機會主義地回購了約 700 萬美元，並於 11 月 17 日發布了贖回剩餘 2023 年票據的通知。

We will use revolver borrowings and cash on hand to address these notes. And after that, we have limited debt maturities until 2026. Looking forward, we will continue to balance these priorities with the impacts of the broader economy and our need to prudently invest in the business to advance our goal to make the transaction process simpler for consumers. In Q3, our volume was down 17%, consistent with our down 10% to 20% estimate. But the market is, unfortunately, worsening beyond that. And based on what we see today, our current view on transaction volume for Q4 is down over 25%.

我們將使用循環借款和手頭現金來處理這些票據。在那之後，我們的債務期限有限，直到 2026 年。展望未來，我們將繼續在這些優先事項與更廣泛的經濟影響以及我們審慎投資業務的需要之間取得平衡，以推進我們為消費者簡化交易流程的目標.在第三季度，我們的銷量下降了 17%，與我們下降 10% 至 20% 的預期一致。但不幸的是，市場正在惡化。根據我們今天看到的情況，我們目前對第四季度交易量的看法下降了 25% 以上。

The further deterioration of volume from our previous guidance, combined with the legal accruals, as is below our previous EBITDA guidance. We do not plan to give new guidance at this point due to the high degree of macro volatility. We continue to make decisions that set us up for the near term while also remaining committed to our long-term strategy, balancing the emphasis on cost efficiencies and prudent investments designed to drive long-term value. We believe this balance, along with our size, scale, and cost discipline positions us well for long-term success. I will now turn the call over to Ryan for some closing remarks.

與我們之前的指導相比，銷量進一步惡化，加上法定應計費用，低於我們之前的 EBITDA 指導。由於宏觀波動很大，我們目前不打算給出新的指引。我們繼續制定短期決策，同時繼續致力於我們的長期戰略，平衡對成本效率的重視和旨在推動長期價值的審慎投資。我們相信這種平衡，以及我們的規模、規模和成本紀律，使我們能夠取得長期成功。我現在將把電話轉給瑞安，聽取一些結束語。

Thank you, Charlotte. Well, it's clearly a volatile and challenging housing market right now, and in the near future. I like Anywhere Real Estate's demonstrated ability to deliver meaningful profitability, cost discipline, prudent growth investments, and our potential for differentiation in an improving competitive environment. I still believe the long-term housing market outlook is pretty good, driven in large part by positive demographics, strong consumer balance sheets, and strong demand for housing.

謝謝你，夏洛特。好吧，現在和不久的將來，這顯然是一個動盪且充滿挑戰的房地產市場。我喜歡 Anywhere Real Estate 所展示的提供有意義的盈利能力、成本控制、審慎的增長投資以及我們在不斷改善的競爭環境中實現差異化的潛力。我仍然相信長期的住房市場前景相當不錯，這在很大程度上受到積極的人口結構、強勁的消費者資產負債表和強勁的住房需求的推動。

But today and in the near future, we're clearly facing a tough part of the cycle. We believe we're well positioned for the future, taking a proactive approach to confront the challenging near-term market and continuing to look ahead to grow our business, simplify the transaction for the consumer and create competitive differentiation. We believe we've got the scale, innovation capabilities, and the right focus on the future to navigate the tough parts of the cycle and position anywhere for greater success in better housing markets down the road. With that, we will take your questions.

但今天和不久的將來，我們顯然正面臨週期中的艱難部分。我們相信我們已為未來做好準備，採取積極主動的方法來應對充滿挑戰的近期市場，並繼續展望未來以發展我們的業務，簡化消費者的交易並創造競爭優勢。我們相信，我們擁有規模、創新能力和對未來的正確關注，可以駕馭週期中的艱難部分，並在任何地方定位，以便在未來更好的房地產市場中取得更大的成功。這樣，我們將回答您的問題。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Ryan McKeveny with Zelman & Associates.

謝謝你。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Ryan McKeveny。

Charlotte, I know you mentioned you'll get into more detail on the cost side of things for '23 next quarter. But can you help us think about the process of potentially temporary cost savings becoming permanent or becoming kept out of the business longer. And I ask because Ryan, you mentioned there's many that expect next year could be, in fact, worse than this year. So I'm just curious, how much of the cost saves that are coming out this year, should we expect to remain out of the business? Is there a level of like if the market is still down, if transaction volume is still down, then those temporary costs stay out? Or, on the other hand, what would cause those to come back into the business as expenses next year?

夏洛特，我知道你提到你將在下個季度的 23 年的成本方面獲得更多細節。但是，您能否幫助我們考慮一下，將潛在的臨時成本節約變為永久性成本節約或將其排除在業務之外的時間更長的過程。我問是因為 Ryan，你提到有很多人預計明年實際上可能比今年更糟。所以我很好奇，今年節省了多少成本，我們是否應該期望繼續退出業務？如果市場仍然下跌，如果交易量仍然下降，那麼這些臨時成本是否存在？或者，另一方面，是什麼導致這些費用在明年作為費用重新投入業務？

Ryan, it's a great question. And so how I think about it and a good analog is what we had in COVID, right? So when the volume was down, the costs were out, and then you saw a little bit of quarter-by-quarter variation, especially year-over-year like as we started adding those back when volume completely boomerang back. To that point, if volumes are still down next year, I would fully expect that some of these temporary cost savings remain temporary cost savings in line with whatever the market is delivering for us. So it really will depend on the volumes. And good examples of that is so marketing expenses. Lots of industries, lots of companies tied their marketing expenses to volumes. So that's highly variable. Some employee-related costs, just even processing costs, those definitely vary with the market. So absolutely, we would expect those to stay out-tied with the volumes that we're seeing if those volumes decline into 2023.

瑞安，這是一個很好的問題。所以我是怎麼想的，一個很好的模擬就是我們在 COVID 中所擁有的，對吧？所以當銷量下降時，成本就出來了，然後你會看到一些逐季的變化，尤其是同比變化，就像我們在銷量完全迴旋鏢時開始增加這些一樣。就這一點而言，如果明年的銷量仍然下降，我完全希望這些臨時成本節約中的一些仍然是臨時成本節約，與市場為我們提供的任何東西一致。所以這真的取決於數量。營銷費用就是很好的例子。許多行業、許多公司將營銷費用與銷量掛鉤。所以這是高度可變的。一些與員工相關的成本，甚至是加工成本，這些肯定會因市場而異。因此，如果這些數量下降到 2023 年，我們絕對希望這些數量與我們看到的數量保持一致。

And the second one, just capital allocation, and I know this is also kind of a longer-term thought process, but obviously, the near-term focus is on the redemption of the notes, as you've mentioned in the past. But how are you thinking about or how should we be thinking about your focus between things like share repurchase, even M&A opportunities as the market softens? Investment in the business. And generally, assuming cash flows remain positive, how do you think about allocating that capital across the various opportunities going forward?

第二個，只是資本配置，我知道這也是一個長期的思考過程，但顯然，正如你過去提到的那樣，近期的重點是票據的贖回。但是，隨著市場疲軟，您如何考慮或我們應該如何考慮您對股票回購、甚至併購機會等事情的關注？投資業務。一般來說，假設現金流量保持正值，您如何考慮在未來的各種機會中分配該資本？

Another great question. We're committed to our capital allocation priorities, but here's a way of thinking about it. We did more share repurchases in the quarter. You saw the amount that we did. We've continued to invest in the business, but we are being very judicious about where we place our investment money. From an M&A perspective, we've had some of those throughout the year, but it really comes down to value, like with the price that we would pay the multiple we pay on those things, and we really haven't seen a lot of distressed assets at this point. So obviously, you see from our actions the #1 priority right now is taking care of those 2023 notes. And then the rest of it, like you said, will just depend on our free cash flow. We like the balance of our capital allocation priorities. The amounts will likely vary based on what we're seeing in the volume market.

另一個很好的問題。我們致力於我們的資本分配優先事項，但這是一種思考方式。我們在本季度進行了更多的股票回購。你看到了我們所做的事情。我們一直在繼續投資這項業務，但我們對投資資金的投向非常審慎。從併購的角度來看，我們全年都有一些這樣的事情，但它真的歸結為價值，比如我們為這些事情支付的倍數的價格，我們真的沒有看到很多此時的不良資產。很明顯，你從我們的行動中看到，現在的第一要務是處理那些 2023 年的票據。然後剩下的，就像你說的，將取決於我們的自由現金流。我們喜歡我們的資本分配優先事項的平衡。金額可能會根據我們在批量市場上看到的情況而有所不同。

The next question is from Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

The helpful commentary there on what you're seeing in the competitive environment, perhaps improving somewhat here. I'm curious if you can elaborate on that a little bit. I think you mentioned that there is potential for eventual relief on the commission split side in that scenario. I guess the way to ask the question would be since this competitive environment has improved in recent weeks, and that's occurring at the same time that the market has deteriorated, just maybe if you can kind of read into the last 4, 8 weeks, what are you seeing in terms of agent recruiting and commission splits specifically and sort of how that can kind of -- what do you think the benefit to commission splits might look like as we go out into 2023.

那裡對您在競爭環境中所看到的內容的有用評論，也許在這裡有所改進。我很好奇你能否詳細說明一下。我想你提到過，在這種情況下，佣金分配方有可能最終得到緩解。我想問這個問題的方式是，因為最近幾週這種競爭環境有所改善，而這是在市場惡化的同時發生的，也許如果你能讀懂過去 4、8 週，會發生什麼您是否特別看到了代理人招聘和佣金分配方面的情況，以及這會怎樣——您認為當我們進入 2023 年時，佣金分配的好處可能會是什麼樣子。

Matt, I think Charlotte covered the commission splits pretty well on the call. And as you talked about some of the benefits we're seeing. If I can just kind of take on kind of the competitive environment side of it. Look, I think the reality is we're seeing a better competitive environment for us because as you go into kind of a downturn, it kind of exposes different people's strengths and weaknesses, and you see a lot of competitors kind of pulling back compared to in better markets. And you kind of see a bit of a return or flight to quality, given our kind of financial performance and stability and our ability to even keep investing in these kinds of times. And I think that manifested itself in what Charlotte said. The economics of recruiting have been better in the third quarter than they were in the first or the second quarter. Our franchise sales is running ahead of last year, right, which is, last year was a really good year. We showed you the numbers in Investor Day, and it's run ahead of it as we're getting a lot more people wanting to be part of the ecosystem we're creating and the stability and the quality that we've got. 

馬特，我認為夏洛特在電話會議上很好地解決了佣金分配問題。當你談到我們看到的一些好處時。如果我能承擔起競爭環境方面的責任。看，我認為現實是我們看到了一個更好的競爭環境，因為當你進入低迷時期，它會暴露出不同人的長處和短處，而且你會看到很多競爭對手都在退縮在更好的市場。考慮到我們的財務業績和穩定性，以及我們在這種時期甚至繼續投資的能力，你會看到一些回歸或逃避質量。我認為這在夏洛特所說的話中得到了體現。第三季度的招聘經濟狀況好於第一季度或第二季度。我們的特許經營銷售是領先於去年的，對，也就是說，去年是非常好的一年。我們在投資者日向您展示了這些數字，它領先於它，因為我們有更多的人希望成為我們正在創建的生態系統的一部分以及我們所擁有的穩定性和質量。

Our renewals are running ahead of last year. So that's kind of the theme. I think Charlotte covered kind of how it will play out probably in the Asian commission side, but it's a nice silver lining in an otherwise tough market. And if we can position ourselves through this to take some share, which is a goal, and do the other things that Charlotte was talking about with our profitability and our ability to invest, you can envision more octane out of our ecosystem coming out of a tough market. So we spent a lot of time on that, just like we spent a lot of time on focus on the expense side and making sure we're only making the right investments, but it's been a meaningful change in the competitive environment. I hear from my leaders in the field pretty much every week now in the last quarter.

我們的續訂比去年提前。這就是主題。我認為夏洛特在某種程度上涵蓋了它在亞洲佣金方面可能會如何發揮作用，但在一個原本艱難的市場中，這是一個很好的一線希望。如果我們能夠通過這個定位自己來獲得一些份額，這是一個目標，並通過我們的盈利能力和投資能力做夏洛特談論的其他事情，你可以想像我們的生態系統會產生更多的辛烷值艱難的市場。所以我們在這上面花了很多時間，就像我們花了很多時間關注費用方面並確保我們只進行正確的投資一樣，但這是競爭環境中一個有意義的變化。在上個季度，我幾乎每週都會聽到我在該領域的領導者的消息。

But to be clear, we definitely expect further split-increased moderation in the next quarter.

但需要明確的是，我們肯定會在下一季度進一步增加分拆和適度。

The second one is just on the market environment into '23 under sort of a range of scenarios, I guess. I think I'm trying to get at sort of the offsets between what could be a further decline in the market next year, as you mentioned, the third-party sources, making that call at this point versus the incremental cost savings. I think Charlotte at the top, you said some of the recent actions would run rate around $70 million next year. So I guess I'm just trying to balance the 2. Is there a potential -- is there a scenario where EBITDA could be flattish in 2023 if you run rating $70 million of savings with these recent additions, plus you'll have additional announcements in the next quarter. Just kind of how do you get to any kind of comfort on where your operating EBITDA may go next year and sort of the ability to offset further declines in market volumes?

我猜，第二個是關於市場環境進入 23 年的一系列情景。我想我正試圖在明年市場可能進一步下滑之間取得某種抵消，正如你提到的，第三方消息來源，在這一點上做出這樣的呼籲與增量成本節約。我認為夏洛特位居榜首，你說最近的一些行動明年將達到 7000 萬美元左右。所以我想我只是想平衡兩者。是否有可能——如果你通過這些最近增加的項目來節省 7000 萬美元的評級，那麼 2023 年 EBITDA 可能會持平，而且你還會有額外的公告在下個季度。您如何對明年的經營 EBITDA 可能走向何方以及抵消市場銷量進一步下降的能力感到任何安慰？

It's a great question. And I think the answer is it depends on where volumes go and how far down they would go or not because when you think about our cost base, if you include commissions, it's like 80% variable, 20% fixed. If you exclude commissions, it's kind of the reverse, and it does depend by the business unit. Obviously, we're highly motivated to make sure the cost base is rightsized for the volumes that we're seeing. I tried to share the $70 million to basically explain like that's already actions as we go into the year. The reason I'm not giving you cost savings targets for the full year is we're still working to supplement the $70 million based on how we see volumes continuing to evolve. So I think we'll have more to share with you next quarter. But it really is highly dependent on the volumes, and those have been super volatile. And so we just -- we're going to wait for another quarter to see how things level out.

這是一個很好的問題。我認為答案是這取決於銷量的去向以及它們會下降多遠，因為當你考慮我們的成本基礎時，如果你包括佣金，它就像 80% 可變，20% 固定。如果您排除佣金，則情況正好相反，它確實取決於業務部門。顯然，我們非常有動力確保成本基礎適合我們所看到的數量。我試圖分享 7000 萬美元，以基本上解釋我們進入這一年時已經採取的行動。我沒有給你全年的成本節約目標的原因是，我們仍在努力根據我們對數量持續增長的看法來補充 7000 萬美元。所以我認為下個季度我們將與您分享更多內容。但它確實高度依賴於交易量，而且交易量非常不穩定。所以我們只是 - 我們將等待另一個季度，看看情況如何趨於平穩。

The next question is from Tommy McJoynt with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tommy McJoynt。

Just want to think back historically, when we've seen somewhat of a sharp slowdown in the housing side, and you see some competition levels eased. Does that come from just competing brokerages facing crunches and closing up shop? Or is it just some -- perhaps the overall agent count and the industry decreases, -- just sort of what kind of typically plays out historically when we do see a slowdown in housing?

只是想回顧一下歷史，當我們看到住房方面出現某種程度的急劇放緩時，您會看到一些競爭水平有所緩解。這是否僅來自面臨緊縮和關閉商店的競爭經紀公司？或者它只是一些 - 也許是整體代理人數量和行業減少 - 當我們確實看到房地產放緩時，歷史上通常會出現什麼樣的情況？

Yes. Look, I'm benefiting from a lot of other people's history, but having tortured the historical data pretty well. I wouldn't spend a lot of time on the kind of agents to leave in the industry because the ones that leave tend not to be the high producers and things like that. What it really comes down to is the 2 combinations. One is who's still going to be in business, and you've already seen a couple of firms by the way, in this industry shut their shops in Q3. And then who's in business but is going to be pulling back and behaving differently than they did when kind of the market was flush and people were kind of riding the wave basically. And that latter thing is, obviously, the bigger thing that we've been seeing in the market in the last kind of quarter or so. 

是的。看，我從很多其他人的歷史中受益，但已經很好地折磨了歷史數據。我不會花很多時間在那種要離開這個行業的代理人身上，因為離開的人往往不是高生產商之類的人。真正歸結為 2 種組合。一個是誰還在做生意，順便說一句，你已經看到這個行業的幾家公司在第三季度關閉了他們的商店。然後誰在做生意，但會退縮並表現得與市場繁榮時的行為不同，而人們基本上是在乘風破浪。顯然，後一件事是我們在過去一個季度左右在市場上看到的更大的事情。

And that's why we think it's important to kind of have kind of the financial octane that we've got and to have done some of the balance sheet work that Charlotte has done and have our company prepared because at the end of it, like I know it's a little weird to talk about right at the moment, but we remain pretty optimistic about the long-term view of housing. I mean, we have a lot more demand than supply for houses in this country. There's a lot of demographic trends, et cetera. Obviously, what's happened with rates and inflation and stuff has really got us in a tough spot at the moment as an industry, but there is some good stuff here. And so Matt, excuse me, Tommy, look, our Investor Day was like -- it feels like forever ago, but it's actually only been a few months. 

這就是為什麼我們認為重要的是要擁有我們已經擁有的某種金融辛烷值，並完成夏洛特所做的一些資產負債表工作，並讓我們的公司做好準備，因為在它結束時，就像我知道的那樣現在談論它有點奇怪，但我們對住房的長期觀點仍然非常樂觀。我的意思是，在這個國家，我們的房屋供不應求。有很多人口趨勢，等等。顯然，利率和通貨膨脹等方面發生的事情確實讓我們作為一個行業目前處於困境，但這裡有一些好東西。所以馬特，對不起，湯米，看，我們的投資者日就像——感覺就像很久以前一樣，但實際上只有幾個月。

And the underlying things we talked about doing still need to happen, right? We need to focus on growing our core business. We need to simplify that consumer experience because that's where the world is going. It's where the portals are going, where the product companies are going. We need to take out $300 million of cost across our company over that time period to get more efficient, and we need to gain the market share that we talked about. But the wildcard of all this, as we told you, is the housing market. But we do like the long-term kind of demographics and demand for housing. So you're going to see us be very focused on steering through whatever this part of the cycle is with cost discipline, prudent investment, and competitive differentiation. -- but we haven't lost sight of the fact that we need to do those other strategic objectives for the longer term to really succeed here.

我們談論的基本事情仍然需要發生，對吧？我們需要專注於發展我們的核心業務。我們需要簡化消費者體驗，因為這就是世界的發展方向。這是門戶網站的發展方向，也是產品公司的發展方向。在那段時間裡，我們需要在整個公司內削減 3 億美元的成本，以提高效率，我們需要獲得我們談到的市場份額。但是，正如我們告訴過您的那樣，所有這一切的通配符是房地產市場。但我們確實喜歡長期的人口統計數據和住房需求。所以你會看到我們非常專注於通過成本紀律、審慎投資和競爭差異化來引導週期的這一部分。 ——但我們並沒有忽視這樣一個事實，即我們需要實現其他長期戰略目標才能在這裡取得真正的成功。

And just kind of going back, I know a few questions have been asked on the kind of the expense side and the commission split side. Just to hone in a bit more on the commission split side. So it has been trending around this, I guess, 79% to 80% level for most of the year. And just kind of looking back a longer time period, perhaps over the past decade or so, you've seen kind of just a gradual increase in that number. So to the extent, we do see a transaction volume decrease in 2023 and perhaps even 24%. Mechanically, can that 79% to 80% level reset down? And does that -- is the magnitude of that maybe 1% or just kind of any way for us to help quantify how much that could be and when that could happen?

回到過去，我知道有人問了一些關於費用方面和佣金分配方面的問題。只是為了在佣金分配方面進行更多的磨練。所以它一直圍繞這個趨勢，我猜，今年大部分時間都是 79% 到 80% 的水平。回顧更長的時間段，也許在過去十年左右，你會看到這個數字在逐漸增加。因此，在某種程度上，我們確實看到 2023 年交易量下降，甚至可能下降 24%。從機械上講，79% 到 80% 的水平可以重置嗎？那是否 - 可能是 1% 的幅度還是我們可以幫助量化可能發生的程度以及何時發生的任何方式？

Yes. There's no like sort of magic ball for me to give you on what the actual number is going to be. We did see sequential improvement from Q2 to Q3. And so again, it's highly dependent on the volumes and highly dependent on the agent mix, which agents are doing which transactions. Because you can imagine, some are above that 79%, and some are below that 79%. So it's -- it will be very difficult for me to give you an analog because it is dependent on those 2 things. But we like what we're seeing with the sequential decrease versus Q2.

是的。我沒有類似的魔法球可以告訴你實際數字是多少。我們確實看到了從第二季度到第三季度的連續改善。因此，它再次高度依賴於數量，並且高度依賴於代理組合，即哪些代理正在執行哪些交易。因為你可以想像，有些高於 79%，有些低於 79%。所以它 - 我很難給你一個類比，因為它取決於這兩件事。但我們喜歡我們看到的與第二季度相比連續下降的情況。

We do believe that we will continue to see improvement in Q4 from the improved -- the split increase will further moderate in Q4. So the only thing I'll tell you, too, is any of the recruiting stuff that we've done over time, it does get amortized. So that stays in the base until it's amortized. So there's a lot of variables here, but we're definitely encouraged by the trends we saw in the sequential moderation from Q2 to Q3, highly dependent on the volume and which agents are doing the transactions.

我們確實相信，我們將繼續看到第四季度的改善 - 拆分增長將在第四季度進一步放緩。所以我要告訴你的唯一一件事就是我們隨著時間的推移所做的任何招聘工作，它確實得到了攤銷。因此，在攤銷之前，它會一直留在基數中。所以這裡有很多變數，但我們對從第二季度到第三季度的連續緩和中看到的趨勢感到鼓舞，這在很大程度上取決於交易量和哪些代理人在進行交易。

And then just last one for me real quick. What was the investment in the RealSure JV this quarter? I think last quarter, it was a $6 million loss.

然後很快就給我最後一個。本季度對 RealSure JV 的投資是多少？我認為上個季度虧損了 600 萬美元。

It was modest, lower than that. So low single digits.

它是適度的，低於那個。這麼低的個位數。

The next question is from John Campbell with Stephens.

下一個問題來自 John Campbell 和 Stephens。

Ryan, I apologize. I had to hop on a little late here. But last call, you talked to the difficult market kind of forcing a division of winners and losers. It seems to me that you may be implying that you guys might push for more profitable growth, maybe at lower margins, but I want to check back in on that commentary and see if your views changed at all with looking at the world with maybe a little bit of a different lens.

瑞安，我道歉。我不得不在這裡跳得有點晚。但在最後一次通話中，你談到了艱難的市場，這種市場迫使贏家和輸家分裂。在我看來，你們可能是在暗示你們可能會推動利潤更高的增長，也許利潤率會更低，但我想回顧一下那篇評論，看看你們的觀點是否完全改變了，也許用有點不同的鏡頭。

Yes. I don't remember the exact comment. I'm not sure I want the headline too from that comment to have been we want lower margins or anything like that. But continuing to push for profitable growth is, of course, important for us, and we actually demonstrate profitable growth. So that's a good thing. Again, as I kind of was saying in Tommy's answer, strategically, we're not giving up on growing our core business. We're gaining market share or making prudent investments even in a tough market, and we have the financial ability to do that, and we have the quality and the stability that I think is showing up in what's happening in the market with franchise sales with recruiting and retention. And again, some of that's because of the competitive environment has gotten better. 

是的。我不記得確切的評論。我不確定我是否也希望該評論的標題是我們想要更低的利潤率或類似的東西。但是，繼續推動盈利增長對我們來說當然很重要，我們實際上展示了盈利增長。所以這是一件好事。同樣，正如我在湯米的回答中所說的那樣，從戰略上講，我們不會放棄發展我們的核心業務。即使在艱難的市場中，我們也正在獲得市場份額或進行謹慎的投資，我們有能力做到這一點，而且我們擁有質量和穩定性，我認為在特許經營銷售市場上正在發生的事情招聘和保留。再一次，其中一些是因為競爭環境變得更好了。

But at the same time, we're being very, very focused on our margins on the cost side here in this -- as the market kind of declines here. And to Charlotte's point, we're being pretty selective on the investment side. We've done -- we've always thought about a little more M&A possibly in our future, but you'll look back, and you see it's not like we've done some meaningful amount here because we really only want to do deals that we think are really good. And those haven't really been in our doorstep yet. But maybe they will be as the market continues to put people under more stress. We'll see. 

但與此同時，我們非常、非常關注我們在成本方面的利潤率——因為這裡的市場有點下滑。就夏洛特而言，我們在投資方面非常有選擇性。我們已經完成了——我們一直在考慮未來可能進行更多的併購，但你會回顧過去，你會發現我們並沒有在這裡做一些有意義的事情，因為我們真的只想做交易我們認為真的很好。這些還沒有真正進入我們的家門口。但隨著市場繼續給人們帶來更大的壓力，他們可能會成為現實。我們拭目以待。

So the bottom line is we're still probably seeing the biggest difference, John, from the last time we talked is actually seeing the competitive differentiation play out in the quarter and actually seeing different competitive behaviors and seeing our value proposition resonate differently out there in the market that has a little bit of a benefit on the aged commission splits and recruiting the trial has talked about. It's got a little benefit on the franchise sales side, et cetera. And so -- but again, as I said to Tommy, we got to grow the core business. We've got to take out $300 million of cost. We've got to improve the consumer experience, and we do need to gain market share. Those objectives have not gone away. How we navigate them through a down part of the cycle changes around the margins a bit, but we don't give up on it.

所以最重要的是，我們仍然可能看到最大的不同，約翰，從我們上次談話中實際上看到競爭差異在本季度發揮作用，實際上看到不同的競爭行為，看到我們的價值主張在那裡產生不同的共鳴市場上對老年佣金分成和招募試用有一點好處的已經談過了。它在特許經營銷售方面有一點好處，等等。因此——但是，正如我對湯米所說的那樣，我們必鬚髮展核心業務。我們必須削減 3 億美元的成本。我們必須改善消費者體驗，我們確實需要獲得市場份額。這些目標並沒有消失。我們如何在周期的下半部分引導它們在邊緣發生一些變化，但我們不會放棄。

So not really relevant this last quarter. In the past, you talked to every 1 percentage point swing in volumes would equate to about $15 million of EBITDA either way. Are we back to that kind of sensitivity? Or is there a way to think about that? Is there a revised kind of senility we should think about?

所以上個季度並不真正相關。過去，無論哪種方式，銷量每波動 1 個百分點都相當於約 1500 萬美元的 EBITDA。我們又回到那種敏感性了嗎？或者有沒有辦法考慮這個問題？我們應該考慮一種修正的衰老嗎？

It hasn't really changed. That's an annual figure, too, just so you know. So no, I don't think we have anything to update as far as the analog on 1% of volume. I think it's still safe to use that. I think what you have to think about though, are some of the other moving pieces with the sale of the underwriter. There's the timing on other things that impact the quarter. But on a yearly basis, that's still a very relevant analog.

它並沒有真正改變。這也是一個年度數字，你知道的。所以不，我不認為我們有任何關於 1% 音量模擬的更新。我認為使用它仍然是安全的。我認為你必須考慮的是，與承銷商的銷售有關的其他一些動人的事情。還有影響本季度的其他事情的時間安排。但每年，這仍然是一個非常相關的類比。

And then on -- I think back to Tommy's question, I think you said the $6 million of investment in Real Sure. I think in past calls, maybe you guys kind of bracketed out or bucketed maybe $40 million all in around Rocher and some of the other strategic initiatives. Is that still kind of a good run rate?

然後——我回想起湯米的問題，我想你說的是對 Real Sure 的 600 萬美元投資。我認為在過去的電話會議中，也許你們在 Rocher 和其他一些戰略舉措周圍有點被包圍或投入了 4000 萬美元。這仍然是一個很好的運行率嗎？

That's what we said in the beginning of the year for that, plus some other strategic initiatives. I think what you would expect is in a market like this, that format is probably a little less relevant. So we may have dialed back a little bit. And so that's why when he asked if it was 6, and I said it was low single digits. Clearly, that run rate is not going to get you to something like $40 million, but tied to the market.

這就是我們在今年年初所說的，以及其他一些戰略舉措。我想你會期望在這樣的市場中，這種格式可能不太相關。所以我們可能已經撥回了一點。這就是為什麼當他問它是不是 6 時，我說它是低個位數。顯然，這個運行率不會讓你達到 4000 萬美元，而是與市場掛鉤。

Yes, John, just to build on that, look, marketing expenses and some capital expenditures are the 2 biggest places that I would say we've pulled back from investments given the weaker market, but there's been some others included in that kind of general $40 million bucket Charlotte talked about. And then I was going to say exactly what she said, which is RealSure was $6 million last quarter. It was less than that this quarter, as you talked about. And none of those signals that we don't believe in marketing, or we don't believe in capital expenditures, or we don't believe in RealSure, it's more of just really trying to be good stewards here given how we see the market evolving differently. And in a smaller home sale market, the ROI on these things differs. So we've tried to be good stewards and -- but we're going to keep making prudent investments. And that's part of, I think, the competitive differentiation here that we're seeing, both on the franchise and on the owned brokerage side.

是的，約翰，只是以此為基礎，看，營銷費用和一些資本支出是我想說的兩個最大的地方，鑑於市場疲軟，我們已經從投資中撤回，但還有其他一些包括在那種一般夏洛特談到了 4000 萬美元的桶。然後我要準確地說出她所說的，即 RealSure 上個季度為 600 萬美元。正如你所說，這個季度比這個要少。這些都沒有表明我們不相信營銷，或者我們不相信資本支出，或者我們不相信 RealSure，鑑於我們如何看待市場，這更多的只是真的想成為這裡的好管家演化不同。在較小的房屋銷售市場中，這些東西的投資回報率是不同的。因此，我們一直努力成為優秀的管家——但我們將繼續進行謹慎的投資。我認為，這是我們在特許經營權和自有經紀公司方面看到的競爭差異的一部分。

(Operator Instructions) The next question is from Justin Ages with Berenberg Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Berenberg Capital Markets 的 Justin Ages。

First, you mentioned that luxury was still relatively strong. Can you just dig in there a little bit? Is your expectation that that holds up better than other facets of the market, or as affordability and low inventory continue to take their toll, it's going to start impacting that as well?

首先，您提到奢侈品還是比較強勢的。你能在那裡挖一點嗎？您是否期望它比市場的其他方面更好，或者隨著負擔能力和低庫存繼續造成損失，它也會開始影響它嗎？

Yes. So Justin, let me take that from -- again, this is probably more of an anywhere real estate view than trying to speak on the whole market. But remember, we're pretty clearly the leader in luxury with Sotheby's International Realty Quarter and Cable banker and what some of our other brands do in luxury. And when we look at what happened in the third quarter, we talked about the 17% volume decline. The decline in our luxury portfolios and our 750,000 are up, just to use that cut, but it's also true to $1 million enough. They just declined less, right? But also, if you look forward and look at the listings we're taking, Justin, we had less decline in listings in that 750 and up kind of luxury area than we did below that.

是的。所以賈斯汀，讓我從——再一次，這可能更像是一個任何地方的房地產觀點，而不是試圖在整個市場上發言。但請記住，憑藉 Sotheby's International Realty Quarter 和 Cable banker 以及我們其他一些品牌在奢侈品領域的表現，我們顯然是奢侈品領域的領導者。當我們回顧第三季度發生的事情時，我們談到了 17% 的銷量下降。我們的奢侈品投資組合下降，我們的 750,000 上升，只是為了使用那個削減，但它也足夠 100 萬美元。他們只是拒絕得少了，對吧？而且，賈斯汀，如果你向前看並看看我們正在出售的房源，我們在 750 及以上的豪華區域的房源數量下降幅度小於我們在該區域以下的房源數量。

So in our portfolio, at least luxury is holding up stronger than others. And I think that probably is somewhat true for the market personally because you have the -- you don't have as many mortgages kind of in the luxury segment sometimes. And obviously, the mortgage rates and affordability is such a crush. The other is the place where there's the tightest inventory is the first-time homebuyer. I mean, that is just the place I worry the most about the intersection of affordability and inventory. And so that's probably the place with just the most pressure. So luxury is not at all immune from the negative headwinds that the whole market has seen. But at least in our portfolio, it's been less of a drop, both looking backwards with the actual transactions we did and looking forward with the listings that we have on our books right now.

因此，在我們的投資組合中，至少奢侈品比其他產品表現更強勁。而且我認為這對個人市場來說可能有點正確，因為你有 - 你有時在奢侈品領域沒有那麼多抵押貸款。很明顯，抵押貸款利率和負擔能力是如此令人迷戀。另一個是庫存最緊張的地方是首次購房者。我的意思是，這正是我最擔心負擔能力和庫存交叉點的地方。所以這可能是壓力最大的地方。因此，奢侈品並不能完全免受整個市場所見的不利因素的影響。但至少在我們的投資組合中，下降幅度較小，無論是回顧我們所做的實際交易，還是展望我們現在賬面上的清單。

And then, I guess, continuing on that, can you or Charlotte offer any kind of further detail or parsing of the expectations for volumes to be down 25%? How should we think about the mortgages and affordability in terms of units versus price? Are prices still expected to be up in the fourth quarter?

然後，我想，繼續說下去，你或夏洛特能否提供任何進一步的細節或對銷量下降 25% 的預期的分析？我們應該如何根據單位與價格來考慮抵押貸款和負擔能力？四季度房價還會上漲嗎？

That is a great question, and I'm glad we actually had a chance to get to it here in public because it is very interesting what's happening out there, right? And again, the 25% plus that I gave you is based off us looking at the market. But also, I'm giving you our latest data, literally our October open contracts, our September kind of open contracts. And what we're seeing basically is pretty much all of the decline is coming from units, right? Even in our minus 17% in Q3, it was minus 21% units, and the price was up a few percentage points. Price is up 4 or 5 percentage points.

這是一個很好的問題，我很高興我們實際上有機會在這裡公開討論這個問題，因為那裡正在發生的事情非常有趣，對吧？再一次，我給你的 25% 以上是基於我們對市場的觀察。而且，我還向您提供我們的最新數據，實際上是我們 10 月份的未平倉合約，我們 9 月份的未平倉合約。我們基本上看到的是幾乎所有的下降都來自單位，對吧？即使在我們第三季度的負 17% 中，它也是負 21% 的單位，價格上漲了幾個百分點。價格上漲了 4 或 5 個百分點。

And if you look at the state level, you see the exact same thing, right? Both in Q3 and in October month-to-date, sides and units are down meaningfully, price is kind of flattish basically or a little bit up effectively. And I think there's some supply and demand issues that kind of create that, right, back to the low inventory things. But the most striking thing is how much of what's happening is the unit side. And then even if you go to the third-party forecasters, almost all of the declines they're talking about for the future are unit based. So, Justin, I spend all my time effectively focused on just the unit side right now because, on kind of an overall basis, that's where the real action is, unfortunately, in terms of the slowdown in the market.

如果你看看州一級，你會看到完全相同的事情，對吧？在第三季度和 10 月至今，側面和單位都有意義地下降，價格基本持平或有效上漲一點點。而且我認為存在一些供需問題，這些問題會造成這種情況，對，回到低庫存的事情上。但最引人注目的是單位方面發生的事情有多少。然後即使你去找第三方預測，他們談論的未來幾乎所有下降都是基於單位的。所以，賈斯汀，我現在把我所有的時間都花在有效地關注單位方面，因為從總體上看，不幸的是，就市場放緩而言，這才是真正的行動所在。

We have no further questions at this time, and that will conclude today's conference call and webcast. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect.

我們現在沒有其他問題了，今天的電話會議和網絡廣播就此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。