Anywhere Real Estate Inc (HOUS) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to our second quarter 2022 earnings conference call and our first as Anywhere Real Estate.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議，這是我們第一次作為 Anywhere Real Estate。

Before we begin, Ryan Schneider will share perspective on our recent rebranding.

在我們開始之前，Ryan Schneider 將分享對我們最近的品牌重塑的看法。

So I'm so excited about this, a powerful existing business, a new focus on the consumer, meeting homebuyers and sellers anywhere in their real estate journey from just starting to search to that incredible keys and hand moments and driving cultural change to deliver that future. So I'm all in on it, right? And I'm actually -- I'm so committed to this that I want to signal this broader change to the world as our current brand and identity have not kept up with our company's transformation.

所以我對此感到非常興奮，強大的現有業務，對消費者的新關注，在他們的房地產旅程中的任何地方與購房者和賣家會面，從剛開始搜索到令人難以置信的鑰匙和手時刻，並推動文化變革以實現這一目標未來。所以我全力以赴，對吧？我實際上 - 我非常致力於這一點，我想向世界表明這種更廣泛的變化，因為我們目前的品牌和身份沒有跟上我們公司的轉型。

So now is the time to move our brand to what's next, and I'm excited to announce Realogy will become Anywhere Real Estate.

所以現在是將我們的品牌轉移到下一步的時候了，我很高興地宣布 Realogy 將成為 Anywhere Real Estate。

Good morning, and welcome to the Anywhere Real Estate Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call via webcast. Today's call is being recorded, and a written transcript will be made available in the Investor Information section of the company's website tomorrow. A webcast replay will also be made available on the company's website. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to newer Senior Director, Danielle Kloeblen. Please go ahead, Danielle.

早上好，歡迎通過網絡直播參加 Anywhere Real Estate 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音，明天將在公司網站的投資者信息部分提供書面記錄。該公司的網站上還將提供網絡廣播重播。此時，我想將會議交給新任高級主管 Danielle Kloeblen。請繼續，丹妮爾。

Thank you, Abby. Good morning, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call for Anywhere Real Estate Inc. On the call with me today are Anywhere CEO and President, Ryan Schneider; and Chief Financial Officer, Charlotte Simonelli.

謝謝你，艾比。早上好，歡迎參加 Anywhere 房地產公司 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天與我通話的是 Anywhere 首席執行官兼總裁 Ryan Schneider；和首席財務官夏洛特西蒙內利。

As shown on Slide 3 of the presentation, the company will be making statements about its future results and other forward-looking statements during this call. These statements are based on current expectations and the current economic environment. Forward-looking statements and projections are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive litigation, regulatory and other uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond the control of management, including among others, rising inflation and mortgage rates, constrained inventory, declining affordability and other macroeconomic concerns as well as the impact of the foregoing on consumer demand.

如演示文稿的幻燈片 3 所示，該公司將在本次電話會議期間就其未來業績和其他前瞻性陳述發表聲明。這些陳述基於當前的預期和當前的經濟環境。前瞻性陳述和預測本質上會受到重大經濟、競爭訴訟、監管和其他不確定性和突發事件的影響，其中許多是管理層無法控制的，其中包括通脹和抵押貸款利率上升、庫存受限、負擔能力下降等宏觀經濟問題以及上述對消費者需求的影響。

Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. For those who listen to the re-broadcast of this presentation, we remind you that the remarks made herein are as of today, July 28, and have not been updated subsequent to the initial earnings call. Important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are specified in our earnings release issued today as well as in our annual and quarterly SEC filings.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果大不相同。對於那些收聽此演示文稿重播的人，我們提醒您，此處發表的言論截至今天 7 月 28 日，在首次財報電話會議後尚未更新。我們今天發布的收益報告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的年度和季度文件中詳細說明了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異的重要假設和因素。

Finally, on July 13, we announced new naming conventions to our business units, which followed our company's rebrand to Anywhere Real Estate Inc. or Anywhere on June 9. During today's call, we will make reference to our reporting segments, which are as follows: Anywhere Brands, formerly known as Realogy Franchise Group; Anywhere Advisors, formerly known as Realogy Brokerage Group; and Anywhere Integrated Services, formerly known as Realogy Title Group.

最後，在 7 月 13 日，我們宣布了我們業務部門的新命名約定，這是在我們公司於 6 月 9 日更名為 Anywhere Real Estate Inc. 或 Anywhere 之後。在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考我們的報告分部，如下所示：Anywhere Brands，前身為Realogy Franchise Group； Anywhere Advisors，前身為 Realogy Brokerage Group；和 Anywhere Integrated Services，前身為 Realogy Title Group。

Now I will turn the call over to our CEO and President, Ryan Schneider.

現在，我將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官兼總裁 Ryan Schneider。

Thank you, Danielle. Welcome to our first earnings call as Anywhere Real Estate and our first earnings call following our May 12th Investor Day. We were excited for that Investor Day because it gave us a chance to share the powerful results of the first chapter of our company's transformation and to articulate our next chapter and strategic future. As we said during our Investor Day, having improved our operating performance and fortified our balance sheet, we like our mix of businesses across the real estate transaction, especially our luxury leadership position.

謝謝你，丹妮爾。歡迎參加我們作為 Anywhere Real Estate 的第一次財報電話會議，以及 5 月 12 日投資者日之後的第一次財報電話會議。我們為那個投資者日感到興奮，因為它讓我們有機會分享公司轉型第一章的強大成果，並闡明我們的下一章和戰略未來。正如我們在投資者日期間所說，在改善了我們的經營業績並鞏固了我們的資產負債表之後，我們喜歡我們在房地產交易中的業務組合，特別是我們的奢侈品領導地位。

And beyond continuing to leverage our existing strengths, we're committed for the future to simplify and reimagining the consumer experience buying and selling a home. And while delivering the future we laid out for you continues to be our priority, the biggest change since we last spoke has been the shift in the housing market, record increases in mortgage rates to nearly double the levels they were a few months ago, combined with rising inflation and broader macroeconomic concerns has substantially changed buyer affordability, buyer demand and seller expectations. And we saw that mostly later in the quarter, especially in June.

除了繼續利用我們現有的優勢之外，我們還致力於在未來簡化和重新構想消費者買賣房屋的體驗。儘管實現我們為您規劃的未來仍然是我們的首要任務，但自我們上次發言以來最大的變化是房地產市場的轉變，抵押貸款利率創下歷史新高，幾乎是幾個月前水平的兩倍，加起來隨著通貨膨脹的上升和更廣泛的宏觀經濟擔憂，買家的負擔能力、買家需求和賣家預期發生了重大變化。我們在本季度晚些時候看到了這一點，尤其是在 6 月份。

Now remember, historically, we have said that a 50 to 100 basis points increase in mortgage rates is a big headwind for housing and in the past few months, the industry has seen more like a 250 to 300 basis points increase in mortgage rates, which has clearly changed the market. While we're now in a much more rapidly changing housing market, we believe our strategic progress and our financial strength have anywhere well positioned, especially relative to many of our competitors to execute. So first, we generate profitability and free cash flow even in tougher housing markets like you'll see in our Q2 results and we believe that investors are increasingly valuing delivery of those critical metrics.

現在請記住，從歷史上看，我們曾說過抵押貸款利率上調 50 到 100 個基點對房地產來說是一個很大的阻力，而在過去幾個月中，該行業看到的抵押貸款利率上調更像是 250 到 300 個基點，這明顯改變了市場。雖然我們現在處於一個瞬息萬變的房地產市場，但我們相信我們的戰略進展和我們的財務實力在任何地方都處於有利地位，尤其是相對於我們的許多競爭對手而言。因此，首先，即使在更艱難的房地產市場中，我們也能產生盈利能力和自由現金流，就像您在我們的第二季度業績中看到的那樣，我們相信投資者越來越重視這些關鍵指標的交付。

Second, our balance sheet progress, our liquidity and our current low leverage ratios have us well positioned for all parts of the housing cycle and finally, we're always very focused on cost. We delivered consistent cost reduction programs even during the very strong housing markets for the past 2 years and this year, we've meaningfully increased our cost reduction plans as we see the housing market changing.

其次，我們的資產負債表進展、我們的流動性和我們目前的低杠桿率使我們在房地產週期的所有部分都處於有利地位，最後，我們始終非常關注成本。即使在過去 2 年非常強勁的房地產市場期間，我們也提供了一致的成本降低計劃，而今年，隨著我們看到房地產市場的變化，我們有意義地增加了我們的成本降低計劃。

Now consistent with this performance strength in both good and challenging housing markets, let me share our Q2 results. We delivered $2.1 billion in revenue and $202 million of operating EBITDA in Q2. While this is down from 2021's record $2.3 billion in revenue and $310 million in operating EBITDA is still a powerful financial result on both an absolute basis and relative to our competition. Our franchise segment again demonstrated its attractiveness and resilience. It's $204 million operating EBITDA was down only $20 million from 2021 while the market headwinds and greater direct effect on our frontline businesses like title mortgage and owned brokerage and our transaction volume reflected the weakening housing market that we've all observed.

現在，與良好和充滿挑戰的房地產市場的這種表現實力保持一致，讓我分享我們的第二季度業績。我們在第二季度實現了 21 億美元的收入和 2.02 億美元的運營 EBITDA。雖然這低於 2021 年創紀錄的 23 億美元收入和 3.1 億美元的運營 EBITDA，但無論是絕對基礎還是相對於我們的競爭對手而言，這仍然是一個強大的財務結果。我們的特許經營部門再次展示了它的吸引力和彈性。與 2021 年相比，2.04 億美元的運營 EBITDA 僅下降了 2000 萬美元，而市場逆風和對我們的前線業務（如產權抵押和自有經紀業務）的直接影響更大，我們的交易量反映了我們都觀察到的疲軟的房地產市場。

Our volume was down 6% year-over-year in the quarter, with units down about 15%. Our own brokerage business, which we now call Anywhere Advisers, transaction volume was flat to prior year. Our franchise business, which we now call Anywhere Brands, transaction volume was down 9%. The difference was driven in part by geography by the greater luxury mix for advisers and by one meaningful acquisition. We used our $70 million of free cash flow in the quarter and cash on hand to repurchase $45 million of shares to opportunistically purchase $60 million of our 2023 bonds at a discount and to continue to invest in the business.

本季度我們的銷量同比下降 6%，單位數量下降約 15%。我們自己的經紀業務，我們現在稱為 Anywhere Advisers，交易量與去年持平。我們現在稱為 Anywhere Brands 的特許經營業務的交易量下降了 9%。造成這種差異的部分原因是地理位置，顧問的豪華組合更大，以及一次有意義的收購。我們利用本季度 7000 萬美元的自由現金流和手頭現金回購了 4500 萬美元的股票，以機會性的方式以折扣價購買了 6000 萬美元的 2023 年債券，並繼續投資於該業務。

Our commitment to expanding and delivering more consumer products is unchanged. Since we last spoke, we've expanded access to our homeplace app for consumers to 2/3 of our Coldwell Banker Realty footprint, and we like the direct-to-consumer engagement, it is driving. Our commitment to helping consumers and agents better sell their homes with great products continues. For example, the Listing Concierge product we showcased at Investor Day crossed an amazing threshold with over 50% adoption among our Coldwell Banker Realty listings. And those of you at Investor Day heard how much we love our franchise business. While we're always expanding our network with new franchisees, we had a special result in Q2.

我們對擴大和提供更多消費產品的承諾沒有改變。自從我們上次發言以來，我們已經將面向消費者的 homeplace 應用程序的訪問範圍擴大到了 Coldwell Banker Realty 足蹟的 2/3，我們喜歡直接面向消費者的參與，它正在推動。我們繼續致力於幫助消費者和代理商以優質產品更好地銷售他們的房屋。例如，我們在投資者日展示的 Listing Concierge 產品跨越了一個驚人的門檻，在我們的 Coldwell Banker Realty 列表中採用率超過 50%。在投資者日，你們中的那些人聽到了我們多麼熱愛我們的特許經營業務。雖然我們一直在通過新的特許經營商擴展我們的網絡，但我們在第二季度取得了特別的成果。

In June, we were proud to help one of our great franchisees bring a leading luxury brokerage in Oregon into the Sotheby's International Realty Franchise Network. This new addition to our franchise network brings with it $2.5 billion in sales volume and over $60 million in gross commission income. This is the largest gross commission income addition ever to the Sotheby's International Realty Franchise Network and the second largest addition ever to any of the Anywhere Brands franchise networks.

6 月，我們很自豪地幫助我們的一位偉大特許經營商將俄勒岡州領先的奢侈品經紀公司引入蘇富比國際房地產特許經營網絡。我們特許經營網絡的這一新成員帶來了 25 億美元的銷售額和超過 6000 萬美元的總佣金收入。這是蘇富比國際房地產特許經營網絡有史以來最大的總佣金收入增加，也是任何 Anywhere Brands 特許經營網絡的第二大增加。

Let me shift now to what we're seeing in the housing market. First, while most headlines are about price cuts relative to list price. The most important thing to always look at is home prices versus a year ago. We have had 2 years of double-digit price increases and even plus 11% price growth in Q2. That trend has now changed. Overall price for open contracts in June and July is up, but only in low-single digits. And our July open contract data, we see price still up in most markets, though a substantial moderation from the previous trend, EG price up about 5% in places like New York City, Texas and California, prices flat in places like Florida and New Jersey.

現在讓我談談我們在房地產市場上看到的情況。首先，雖然大多數頭條新聞都是關於相對於標價的降價。始終關注的最重要的事情是房價與一年前的對比。我們已經有 2 年的兩位數價格上漲，甚至在第二季度價格上漲了 11%。這種趨勢現在已經改變。 6 月和 7 月未平倉合約的整體價格上漲，但僅以低個位數上漲。根據我們 7 月份的未平倉合約數據，我們看到大多數市場的價格仍在上漲，儘管與之前的趨勢相比大幅放緩，EG 價格在紐約市、德克薩斯州和加利福尼亞州等地上漲了約 5%，而在佛羅里達州和新州等地價格持平球衣。

Second, we entered 2022 estimated units would be down from 2021. That trend has accelerated, especially late in Q2. The new contracts we see opened in June and July are down about 20% versus the previous year. And this is substantially worse than what we saw in the market in both April and early May. And the most consistent feedback I'm hearing when talking with agents and franchisees and looking at our data is the speed at which changes happening, whether you're talking about buyer demand and expectations, seller expectations or increase creativity getting deals done.

其次，我們進入 2022 年估計單位將比 2021 年下降。這種趨勢已經加速，尤其是在第二季度末。我們看到在 6 月和 7 月開立的新合約與去年相比下降了約 20%。這比我們在 4 月和 5 月初在市場上看到的情況要糟糕得多。在與代理商和加盟商交談並查看我們的數據時，我聽到的最一致的反饋是變化發生的速度，無論您是在談論買家需求和期望、賣家期望還是提高完成交易的創造力。

Now looking ahead, the housing market volatility, the pace of change and potential additional fed actions together make it pretty tough to forecast the rest of the year. But like we've been doing all year, our goal is to provide you with transparency about what we're seeing in the market and what we are estimating in our business outlook. So Charlotte will be sharing our operating EBITDA, volume, commission and cost estimates later in this call. So as we close out Q2, we delivered good profitability and free cash flow. We invested to grow our business in the future and return capital to shareholders.

現在展望未來，房地產市場的波動、變化的步伐以及美聯儲可能採取的額外行動，讓我們很難預測今年剩下的時間。但就像我們一整年一直在做的那樣，我們的目標是讓您了解我們在市場上看到的情況以及我們對業務前景的估計。因此，夏洛特將在本次電話會議稍後分享我們的運營 EBITDA、數量、佣金和成本估算。因此，當我們結束第二季度時，我們提供了良好的盈利能力和自由現金流。我們投資是為了在未來發展我們的業務並向股東返還資本。

We remain even more focused on cost in this rapidly changing housing market and we remain confident in our ability to deliver financials, especially relative to many of our competitors. I want to come back and make a few comments on the longer term. But first, let me turn it over to Charlotte to discuss more details about Q2 and our updated estimates.

在這個瞬息萬變的房地產市場中，我們仍然更加關注成本，我們仍然對我們提供財務的能力充滿信心，尤其是相對於我們的許多競爭對手而言。我想回來並就長期而言發表一些評論。但首先，讓我把它交給夏洛特，討論關於第二季度的更多細節和我們更新的估計。

Good morning, everyone. Before we get into the results for the quarter, I want to level set on the current macro-backdrop and how our business remains forward-looking in an ever-changing environment. As Ryan said, we have a strong foundation, and we are well equipped to navigate today's environment, responding with agility to volatility and uncertainty while remaining focused on our long-term objectives and values which have made us so successful. We are not immune to the challenges in the market, but we have shown we will flex our cost structure and strong balance sheet and liquidity in ways that are clearly an advantage for us. We believe we can be a net beneficiary as the current market landscape will naturally force winners and losers.

大家，早安。在我們了解本季度的結果之前，我想先了解當前的宏觀背景，以及我們的業務如何在不斷變化的環境中保持前瞻性。正如瑞安所說，我們有堅實的基礎，我們有能力駕馭當今的環境，靈活應對波動和不確定性，同時繼續專注於使我們如此成功的長期目標和價值觀。我們不能倖免於市場的挑戰，但我們已經表明，我們將以顯然對我們有利的方式來調整我們的成本結構、強大的資產負債表和流動性。我們相信我們可以成為淨受益者，因為當前的市場格局自然會影響贏家和輸家。

The combination of our strong business model, the strategic investments we have made, the capabilities we have built and our culture positions us well. The key is making decisions that deliver today while also staying committed to our strategy, which is designed to drive long-term value and which we believe positions us for success regardless of the macro-environment. An example of this is our continued focus on improving our cost structure.

我們強大的商業模式、我們所做的戰略投資、我們建立的能力和我們的文化相結合，使我們處於有利地位。關鍵是做出能夠在今天交付的決策，同時還要堅持我們的戰略，該戰略旨在推動長期價值，我們相信無論宏觀環境如何，我們都能取得成功。這方面的一個例子是我們繼續專注於改善我們的成本結構。

We have proven we are relentless on our cost structure regardless of market conditions. In 2021, we delivered about $85 million in cost savings. For 2022, we originally budgeted about $70 million of cost savings. But given the current backdrop, we have targeted an additional $70 million plus of both permanent and temporary cost savings for total full year savings north of $140 million. These additional savings are in 3 buckets. First, we have moved rapidly to respond to shifts in the housing market to right-size our costs, including purely variable as well as semi-variable costs that are tied to volume, especially across our brokerage and title businesses.

我們已經證明，無論市場條件如何，我們都對成本結構毫不留情。 2021 年，我們節省了約 8500 萬美元的成本。對於 2022 年，我們最初預算了大約 7000 萬美元的成本節約。但鑑於目前的背景，我們的目標是額外節省 7000 萬美元，加上永久性和臨時性成本節約，全年總節約額超過 1.4 億美元。這些額外的節省分為 3 個存儲桶。首先，我們迅速採取行動應對房地產市場的變化，以調整我們的成本，包括與數量相關的純可變成本和半可變成本，尤其是在我們的經紀和產權業務中。

Second, we continue to reimagine and reduce our retail office footprint, and we have reduced our administrative office footprint, which is down almost 80% since Q1 2020. Finally, we continue to streamline our administrative support cost structure through RPA and other automation as well as enhanced use of business analytics and technology tools, including Power BI, Hyperion and advanced analytics.

其次，我們繼續重新構想和減少零售辦公室的佔地面積，我們減少了行政辦公室的佔地面積，自 2020 年第一季度以來下降了近 80%。最後，我們繼續通過 RPA 和其他自動化來簡化我們的行政支持成本結構加強對業務分析和技術工具的使用，包括 Power BI、Hyperion 和高級分析。

Another example of our success is our strong balance sheet and liquidity position with over $800 million lower gross debt than Q2 2019, a long-dated maturity stack, lower cost of capital and an untapped revolver, we have a lot of financial flexibility, and we believe our balance sheet is a competitive advantage. We generate attractive profitability and free cash flow even in more challenging housing markets, and we recently moved to positive outlook for Moody's despite the market backdrop. We remain committed to our plans to address the 2023 notes on or before maturity and have started to tackle this already in Q2 by purchasing $60 million of these bonds in the open market at a discount.

我們成功的另一個例子是我們強大的資產負債表和流動性狀況，總債務比 2019 年第二季度低 8 億多美元，期限較長，資本成本較低和未開發的左輪手槍，我們有很大的財務靈活性，我們相信我們的資產負債表是一種競爭優勢。即使在更具挑戰性的房地產市場中，我們也產生了有吸引力的盈利能力和自由現金流，儘管市場背景，我們最近對穆迪的前景持樂觀態度。我們仍然致力於在到期或到期之前解決 2023 年票據的計劃，並已在第二季度開始通過在公開市場上以折扣價購買 6000 萬美元的這些債券來解決這個問題。

And in July, we successfully executed an amendment and extension of our revolving credit facility. We were able to upsize the extended portion of the revolver to $1.1 billion and to extend the maturity to July 2027. During Q2, we also repurchased $45 million in common stock with about $255 million of repurchase authorization remaining. Looking forward, we will continue to balance these priorities with the impacts of the broader economy and our need to invest in the business as we look to advance our goal to make the transaction process simpler for consumers. With that context, I will now briefly highlight our Q2 financial results.

並且在 7 月，我們成功地對我們的循環信貸額度進行了修改和延期。我們能夠將左輪手槍的擴展部分擴大到 11 億美元，並將期限延長至 2027 年 7 月。在第二季度，我們還回購了 4500 萬美元的普通股，剩餘約 2.55 億美元的回購授權。展望未來，我們將繼續平衡這些優先事項與更廣泛經濟的影響以及我們對業務的投資需求，因為我們希望推進我們的目標，使消費者的交易過程更簡單。在這種情況下，我現在將簡要介紹我們的第二季度財務業績。

Q2 revenue was $2.1 billion, down $134 million or 6% year-over-year versus the unseasonably strong Q2 last year and down about $100 million due to the partial sale of the underwriter business. Franchise brokerage and title agency revenue drove the remainder of the decline, offset in part by growth in our relocation business. Q2 operating EBITDA was $202 million, down $108 million due to softer franchise and brokerage transaction volume, higher agent commission costs and a decline in title earnings.

第二季度收入為 21 億美元，與去年第二季度異常強勁的情況相比，同比下降 1.34 億美元或 6%，並且由於部分出售承銷商業務而下降約 1 億美元。特許經紀和產權代理收入推動了其餘的下降，部分被我們搬遷業務的增長所抵消。第二季度運營 EBITDA 為 2.02 億美元，下降 1.08 億美元，原因是特許經營和經紀交易量疲軟、代理佣金成本增加以及產權收入下降。

Title, now Anywhere Integrated Services, included a hit of about $20 million year-over-year due to the sale of the title underwriter. These impacts were offset in part by favorable relocation earnings that were driven by strong volume growth. Cash on hand at the end of Q2 was $251 million, excluding restricted cash and free cash flow was $70 million. We ended Q2 with a senior secured leverage ratio of 0.05x and a net debt leverage ratio of 3.4x, and we will continue to target a 3x net leverage ratio through cycle moving forward.

由於出售了產權承銷商，Title（現為 Anywhere Integrated Services）的收入同比增長約 2000 萬美元。這些影響被強勁的銷量增長推動的有利搬遷收益部分抵消。第二季度末手頭現金為 2.51 億美元，不包括受限現金和自由現金流為 7,000 萬美元。我們以 0.05 倍的高級擔保槓桿比率和 3.4 倍的淨債務槓桿比率結束了第二季度，我們將在未來的周期中繼續以 3 倍的淨槓桿比率為目標。

As a reminder, we are now a full cash taxpayer and paid $42 million in cash taxes in the quarter, which impacted our free cash flow. We also had a big swing in our working capital, which contributed positive free cash flow last year but was a drain this year due to growth in our relocation business and due to timing and lower accruals in the rest of our business. Our Anywhere Brands business, which includes leads and relocation, generated $339 million in revenue and $204 million in operating EBITDA in the quarter. Our core franchise business is national in scope and skews to more average home sale prices, which makes it more directly impacted by the rise in mortgage rates and lower inventory. Despite near-term volume headwinds, our core franchise business has very attractive fundamentals, including a steady royalty stream and 70% plus profit margin in the quarter.

提醒一下，我們現在是一個全額現金納稅人，並在本季度繳納了 4200 萬美元的現金稅，這影響了我們的自由現金流。我們的營運資金也出現了大幅波動，去年貢獻了正的自由現金流，但由於我們的搬遷業務增長以及我們其他業務的時間安排和較低的應計費用，今年卻出現了流失。我們的 Anywhere Brands 業務（包括潛在客戶和搬遷）在本季度創造了 3.39 億美元的收入和 2.04 億美元的運營 EBITDA。我們的核心特許經營業務是全國性的，並且傾向於更平均的房屋銷售價格，這使其更直接地受到抵押貸款利率上升和庫存減少的影響。儘管近期銷量逆風，但我們的核心特許經營業務具有非常有吸引力的基本面，包括穩定的特許權使用費流和本季度 70% 以上的利潤率。

Our relocation business generated favorable operating EBITDA in the quarter, led by strong client initiation volume, which was up almost 40% year-over-year, including a resurgence of international volume. Our Anywhere Advisors business, which skews high end with an average price point above $700,000 with our Coldwell Banker, Corcoran and Sotheby's International Realty brands generated $1.8 billion in revenue and $11 million in operating EBITDA in the quarter. Advisers generated operating EBITDA of $127 million before the transfer of intercompany royalties and marketing fees paid to our franchise business.

我們的搬遷業務在本季度產生了有利的經營 EBITDA，這得益於強勁的客戶啟動量，同比增長近 40%，其中包括國際業務量的回升。我們的 Anywhere Advisors 業務偏向高端，平均價格高於 700,000 美元，我們的 Coldwell Banker、Corcoran 和 Sotheby's International Realty 品牌在本季度創造了 18 億美元的收入和 1100 萬美元的運營 EBITDA。在將支付給我們的特許經營業務的公司間特許權使用費和營銷費用轉移之前，顧問產生了 1.27 億美元的經營 EBITDA。

We continue to invest in this business with Q2, our eighth consecutive quarter of agent growth, up 6% year-over-year like-for-like. Ongoing agent recruiting success, combined with agent mix, drove most of the 236 basis points increase in commission splits versus prior year. Our retention rates also remained at historical highs in the quarter. Between our recruiting success and our retention numbers, you can see we are leaning in here to position us for future growth. And while this high-end recruiting success and record retention does bring with it some upward pressure on agent commission costs, albeit moderating slightly sequentially, we remain laser-focused on driving profitable growth.

我們在第二季度繼續投資這項業務，這是我們連續第八個季度的代理增長，同比增長 6%。持續的代理招募成功，加上代理組合，推動了佣金分配與去年相比增加了 236 個基點。我們的保留率在本季度也保持在歷史高位。在我們的招聘成功和我們的保留人數之間，您可以看到我們正在努力為未來的增長做好準備。雖然這種高端招聘成功和記錄保留確實給代理佣金成本帶來了一些上行壓力，儘管順序略有放緩，但我們仍然專注於推動盈利增長。

Anywhere Integrated Services delivered $144 million in revenue and $21 million in operating EBITDA in Q2. Q2 revenue reflects the absence of the title underwriter with the balance of the decline primarily due to lower refinance volumes. Operating EBITDA declined $34 million year-over-year, primarily due to the title underwriter sale, with the remainder also due mostly to lower refinance volumes and $10 million lower mortgage JV earnings driven by the abrupt uptick in mortgage rates. Based on what we see today, our current view on transaction volume for the second half of 2022 is down about 10% to 20% year-over-year, which implies full year volume down 6% to 11% year-over-year. Having earned $271 million year-to-date, this volume outlook, combined with our additional cost actions, 175 plus basis points in commission split headwinds and a few other moving pieces in our business has us today with our current estimate for full year operating EBITDA between $600 million and $700 million.

Anywhere Integrated Services 在第二季度實現了 1.44 億美元的收入和 2100 萬美元的運營 EBITDA。第二季度收入反映了產權承銷商的缺席，而下降的餘額主要是由於再融資量減少。運營 EBITDA 同比下降 3400 萬美元，主要是由於產權承銷商的出售，其餘主要是由於抵押貸款利率突然上升導致再融資量減少和抵押貸款合資企業收益減少 1000 萬美元。根據我們今天看到的情況，我們目前對 2022 年下半年交易量的看法同比下降約 10% 至 20%，這意味著全年交易量同比下降 6% 至 11%。今年迄今已賺取 2.71 億美元，這一數量前景，再加上我們的額外成本行動、佣金分攤逆風中的 175 個基點以及我們業務中的一些其他變動因素，今天我們對全年運營 EBITDA 的當前估計在 6 億至 7 億美元之間。

We like our free cash flow delivery, but keep in mind, our full year conversion percentage will be lower, given we are now a full cash taxpayer and have negative impacts due to working capital. We are laser-focused on the $300 million cost savings target we announced at our Investor Day. This target spans 2022 through 2026, not including the incremental 2022 temporary saves just announced and will be delivered through reinvention of several parts of our business. We will drive further integration among our title and owned brokerage businesses and automation on a much broader basis.

我們喜歡我們的自由現金流交付，但請記住，我們的全年轉換百分比會更低，因為我們現在是全額現金納稅人，並且由於營運資金而產生負面影響。我們專注於我們在投資者日宣布的 3 億美元成本節約目標。該目標跨越 2022 年至 2026 年，不包括剛剛宣布的 2022 年增量臨時節省，並將通過對我們業務的幾個部分進行改造來實現。我們將在更廣泛的基礎上推動我們的所有權和自有經紀業務和自動化之間的進一步整合。

Stepping back, we have been and continue to be relentless on costs and proactive on our balance sheet. We will move with speed and agility to not only deliver results today, but also invest selectively to continue to advance our strategy with our luxury focus, our reimagined cost footprint and key technology advances and consumer focus.

退後一步，我們一直並繼續在成本上堅持不懈，在資產負債表上積極主動。我們將快速靈活地行動，不僅在今天取得成果，而且有選擇地投資，以繼續推進我們的戰略，以我們的奢侈品為重點、我們重新設想的成本足跡和關鍵技術進步和消費者為重點。

I will now turn the call over to Ryan for some closing remarks.

我現在將把電話轉給 Ryan 做一些結束語。

Look, it's clearly a dynamic time in the housing market and Anywhere Real Estate is well positioned given our profitability and free cash flow delivery, our balance sheet and liquidity strength and our increasingly impactful consumer focus. And we believe we demonstrated those strengths with our Q2 results even given the market headwinds and the current market volatility likely creates opportunities for Anywhere to use our strengths to enhance our market position relative to our competitors.

看，這顯然是房地產市場的一個動態時期，鑑於我們的盈利能力和自由現金流交付、我們的資產負債表和流動性實力以及我們越來越有影響力的消費者關注點，Anywhere Real Estate 處於有利地位。我們相信，即使在市場逆風和當前市場波動的情況下，我們也通過我們的第二季度業績證明了這些優勢，並且可能為 Anywhere 創造機會，利用我們的優勢來提升我們相對於競爭對手的市場地位。

Now looking to the future, the fundamentals for U.S. Housing actually remained quite strong, especially the demographic trends and the higher demand. And what will be most important is the future is changing the customer experience. We believe people will buy and sell houses in a spectrum of ways in the future, all anchored in an improved customer experience and so we continue to invest to grow our future. That includes driving growth from our existing businesses, especially our franchise business and our luxury focus, increasing market share by utilizing our market-leading scale, incumbency strength and exciting investments in products, technology and talent, delivering great consumer experiences, buying and selling a home. There are attractive economics, share gains and competitive advantages to leading into this future and we must recognize that our true competitive set going forward is going to be different from the past. It is companies focused on the consumer experience that are likely to innovate, disrupt, change and win in this industry going forward.

現在展望未來，美國住房的基本面實際上仍然相當強勁，尤其是人口趨勢和更高的需求。最重要的是未來正在改變客戶體驗。我們相信人們在未來將以多種方式買賣房屋，所有這些都以改善客戶體驗為基礎，因此我們繼續投資以發展我們的未來。這包括推動我們現有業務的增長，特別是我們的特許經營業務和我們的奢侈品業務，通過利用我們市場領先的規模、現有實力以及對產品、技術和人才的令人興奮的投資來增加市場份額，提供出色的消費者體驗，購買和銷售家。進入這個未來有有吸引力的經濟、份額收益和競爭優勢，我們必須認識到，我們未來真正的競爭格局將與過去不同。專注於消費者體驗的公司可能會在未來的這個行業中進行創新、顛覆、改變和取勝。

So we're ready as Anywhere Real Estate to navigate and deliver during this challenging part of the housing cycle, while remaining focused on the innovation required to win in the future. With that, we will take your questions.

因此，我們已準備好作為 Anywhere Real Estate 在住房週期的這個充滿挑戰的部分進行導航和交付，同時繼續專注於贏得未來所需的創新。有了這個，我們會回答你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we will take our first question from Justin Ages with Berenberg Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們將回答賈斯汀時代與貝倫貝格資本市場的第一個問題。

Ryan, first one for you in a little bit in general, I think. I was hoping you could help us understand how you plan to balance the kind of short-term operating environment that we're seeing right now with the vision that you laid out for us at the Investor Day, just the puts and takes to kind of achieving those long-term targets that you gave us.

瑞安，我想，一般來說，第一個是給你的。我希望你能幫助我們了解你計劃如何平衡我們現在看到的那種短期經營環境和你在投資者日為我們制定的願景，只是看跌期權實現您給我們的那些長期目標。

Yes, it's a great question. We're clearly going through a changing housing market as we speak. Look, as we try to talk about on the call, we're moving pretty quickly to adjust to what's happening in the market change. I think the emphasis on even more cost focus, not just that we've had in the good markets, but in a more challenging market, I think was pretty clear and something that we were excited about. And we're going to stay focused on that. But we're not going to stop investing for the future. And we generate the free cash flow and profitability that allows us to do that. And so while we're adjusting kind of in real time to the change in the housing market, especially on the expense side, we have not pulled investments in things in the future because we still think this is where the industry is going to go and needs to go, and we need to be a leader in that journey.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。正如我們所說，我們顯然正在經歷一個不斷變化的房地產市場。看，當我們試圖在電話會議上談論時，我們正在迅速採取行動以適應市場變化中正在發生的事情。我認為強調更加註重成本，不僅是我們在良好的市場中所擁有的，而且在更具挑戰性的市場中，我認為這很清楚，我們對此感到興奮。我們將繼續專注於此。但我們不會停止對未來的投資。我們產生了自由現金流和盈利能力，使我們能夠做到這一點。因此，雖然我們正在實時調整房地產市場的變化，尤其是在費用方面，但我們並沒有取消對未來的投資，因為我們仍然認為這是該行業的發展方向，並且需要離開，我們需要成為這一旅程的領導者。

All right. That's helpful. And the next one, somewhat related, maybe for Charlotte. Just hoping to dig a bit deeper on the EBITDA guide. Given the commentary that gave about home prices moderate a bit, the transaction volume that's included in the EBITDA guide, that's going to be more on the unit side or is that how we should be thinking about it then?

好的。這很有幫助。下一個，有點相關，也許是給夏洛特的。只是希望更深入地了解 EBITDA 指南。鑑於有關房價的評論有所緩和，EBITDA 指南中包含的交易量將更多地出現在單位方面，或者我們應該如何考慮它？

No. The numbers that I provided were actually total volume based. And like Ryan showed, we are seeing some price appreciation. So I think it's a balance. You also have to remember, like we are lapping our highest growth in absolute months in Q2 and July of Q3. And our comparisons start to become a little bit easier. We had like 85% volume growth in Q2. And I can't remember exactly what it was in Q3, but it was certainly a lot higher than it was in Q4 and especially in July. So I think you have to kind of take a little bit of the real time data and balance it with kind of what we're lapping from the prior year. But those 10% to 20% is volume, and the costs, we're going to continue to flex them.

不，我提供的數字實際上是基於總量的。就像瑞恩展示的那樣，我們看到了一些價格上漲。所以我認為這是一種平衡。您還必須記住，就像我們在第二季度和第三季度 7 月的絕對月份中實現了最高增長一樣。我們的比較開始變得容易一些。我們在第二季度的銷量增長了 85%。我不記得第三季度的確切情況，但肯定比第四季度高得多，尤其是在 7 月份。因此，我認為您必須獲取一些實時數據，並將其與我們從前一年收集的數據進行平衡。但是這 10% 到 20% 是數量和成本，我們將繼續調整它們。

So based on what we see today, we've taken actions that are commensurate with that. If things change, we will continue to take action. I think we've shown that especially during COVID too that we will move quickly. So you have to balance our ability to continue to flex our cost base with whatever volatility we continue to see in volume.

因此，根據我們今天看到的情況，我們採取了與之相稱的行動。如果情況發生變化，我們將繼續採取行動。我認為我們已經表明，尤其是在 COVID 期間，我們將迅速採取行動。因此，您必須在我們繼續調整成本基礎的能力與我們繼續看到的數量波動之間取得平衡。

Justin, one thing on the total volume. There's really 3 things to think about. One is what's going to happen with prices, what's going to happen with units, but also what's going to happen with our relative performance, right? So you put those 3 things together, make whatever assumptions you want and those 3 things kind of go into the range that we gave.

賈斯汀，關於總音量的一件事。真的有3件事要考慮。一個是價格會發生什麼，單位會發生什麼，還有我們的相對錶現會發生什麼，對吧？所以你把這三件事放在一起，做出你想要的任何假設，這三件事就會進入我們給出的範圍。

And we will take our next question from John Campbell with Stephens.

我們將回答 John Campbell 和 Stephens 的下一個問題。

This is A.J. Hayes stepping in for John Campbell. Ryan, kind of continuing on this conversation here. Can you speak to some of the market trends or leading indicators you're seeing so far in July and how this market backdrop may be confidence for this revised guidance here?

這是 A.J.海耶斯接替約翰坎貝爾。瑞安，在這裡繼續這個對話。您能否談談您在 7 月份迄今為止看到的一些市場趨勢或領先指標，以及這種市場背景如何讓人們對這裡的修訂指南充滿信心？

Well, yes. I mean, look, as I said, it's a rapidly changing market, A.J. So we're just trying to give you what we see at the latest, it is kind of hard to predict. Look, you can find an anecdote for anything. But if you look at the data, I shared what we were seeing happening in price and in units in our portfolio, a couple of other things you might find interesting. What we're seeing, if you go back into Q2 also is we're actually taking more listings at $500,000 and up than we did the year before. Conversely, there are less listings out there below $500,000. And I think that gets a little bit to some of the inventory issues and some of the seller and buyer expectations change I talked about. So I find that to be interesting. And then in our portfolio at least, about half of our listings are going under contract in 2 weeks or less. That's down from about 60% of listings going under contract in 2 weeks or less last year, but that's still meaningfully above 2019 where it was like 35%. And all these things are moving fast out there.

嗯，是。我的意思是，看，正如我所說，這是一個瞬息萬變的市場，A.J.所以我們只是想給你我們最近看到的東西，這有點難以預測。看，你可以找到任何軼事。但是，如果您查看數據，我會分享我們在價格和投資組合中看到的情況，以及其他一些您可能會發現有趣的事情。我們所看到的，如果你回到第二季度，我們實際上以 500,000 美元及以上的價格購買了比前一年更多的房源。相反，低於 500,000 美元的房源較少。我認為這對我談到的一些庫存問題以及一些賣家和買家的期望變化有所影響。所以我覺得這很有趣。然後至少在我們的投資組合中，我們大約一半的房源將在 2 週或更短的時間內簽訂合同。這比去年約 60% 的掛牌房源在 2 週或更短時間內簽訂合同有所下降，但仍顯著高於 2019 年的 35%。所有這些事情都在快速發展。

So we're seeing more strength in markets like New York City and Texas and the Carolinas. Like I talked about on the call, Florida and New Jersey are much more kind of flat kind of areas and California has got a few headwinds. But we gave you the overall numbers, and that's just a little more color. It's moving pretty fast. We're watching it pretty closely. And that volume range Charlotte gave is a little wider, right, in part because of kind of that uncertainty on our side. But you really have kind of the latest data that we have, including some of these additional kind of examples I just gave here.

因此，我們在紐約市、德克薩斯州和卡羅來納州等市場看到了更大的實力。就像我在電話會議上談到的那樣，佛羅里達州和新澤西州是比較平坦的地區，而加利福尼亞州也遇到了一些不利因素。但我們給了你整體數字，這只是更多的顏色。它的移動速度非常快。我們正在密切關注它。夏洛特給出的音量範圍要寬一些，對，部分原因是我們這邊的不確定性。但是您確實擁有我們擁有的最新數據，包括我剛剛在此處提供的一些其他示例。

Great. Very helpful. And then maybe a quick one on RealSure here. I was curious, are you seeing any read-throughs from RealSure. And then additionally, is there any further traction from this business given the market backdrop? And have you seen an incremental uptick in the number of sellers electing to accept the competitive bid from RealSure.

偉大的。非常有幫助。然後可能是關於 RealSure 的一個快速的。我很好奇，您是否看到任何來自 RealSure 的通讀。此外，鑑於市場背景，該業務是否有進一步的吸引力？您是否看到選擇接受來自 RealSure 的競爭性投標的賣家數量在增加。

That's a great question. So we like RealSure. We're continuing to invest in. I think the biggest story on RealSure, like many of the other power buyers, I would say, is a 2-part thing. One is, from what we see both in our data in the market, I add some comments other people have made that the kind of, this power buying concept, I think, is here to stay, right? And we like the fact that we've got it and we can do it at scale. And so I think it is here to stay. But you've seen, I think, most of the people who are in this part of the ecosystem pull back a little bit because of the market pullback.

這是一個很好的問題。所以我們喜歡RealSure。我們將繼續投資。我認為 RealSure 最大的故事，就像許多其他電力購買者一樣，我想說，是一個兩部分的事情。一個是，從我們在市場數據中看到的情況來看，我補充了一些其他人發表的評論，我認為這種電力購買概念會繼續存在，對吧？我們喜歡這樣一個事實，即我們已經擁有它並且我們可以大規模地做到這一點。所以我認為它會繼續存在。但你已經看到，我認為，由於市場回落，生態系統這一部分中的大多數人都回落了一點。

And we haven't pulled back out of any cities or anything like that, but we'll probably invest a little bit less in RealSure just because there's a little less market for it right now when the whole market is down the way it is. But we really like it. We're continuing to invest in it. And most of what we've seen is our numbers and anecdotes that make us believe it's here for the long term as a concept and is part of us, but also in the near term, it has to flex just like many of its competitors of flex and like we're flexing into a bit of a different housing market.

而且我們還沒有退出任何城市或類似的事情，但我們可能會減少對 RealSure 的投資，因為當整個市場都在下跌時，它現在的市場會少一些。但我們真的很喜歡它。我們將繼續對其進行投資。我們所看到的大部分是我們的數字和軼事，使我們相信它作為一個概念長期存在並且是我們的一部分，但在短期內，它必須像許多競爭對手一樣靈活彎曲，就像我們正在進入一個不同的房地產市場。

We will take our next question from Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan.

我們將向摩根大通的 Anthony Paolone 提出下一個問題。

So my first question is, I was hoping to get some help with maybe bridging some of the comments you've made in the past about pushing for market share gains and you also showed that your agent count, I think, was up, you said 6%. So those are positive. But when I look at your unit numbers in the quarter, they seem to underperform NAR down about 15% versus 10% and price wasn't up as much as some of the NAR data suggests. So can you talk about just what's happening on the market share side and how bridge that a bit?

所以我的第一個問題是，我希望得到一些幫助，以彌補你過去關於推動市場份額增長的一些評論，你還表明，我認為你的代理人數增加了，你說6%。所以這些都是積極的。但是，當我查看您本季度的單位數量時，它們的表現似乎比 NAR 低 15% 和 10%，而且價格沒有像一些 NAR 數據顯示的那樣上漲。那麼您能否談談市場份額方面正在發生的事情以及如何彌合這一點？

Yes. So if we look back over time, I think our unit share has gone up over time, but we think we've gotten a good amount of share gain also on price, which kind of leads into the luxury stuff that we do. I would say right at the moment, Tony, the truth is I'm not 100% sure what's going on with our market share in Q2 of 2022. We don't have a clean comparison to give you, given the 8-K that we put out and some of the revisions and disclaimers that the third parties have done with their data that we often compare to.

是的。因此，如果我們隨著時間的推移回顧過去，我認為我們的單位份額隨著時間的推移而上升，但我們認為我們在價格上也獲得了大量的份額收益，這導致了我們所做的奢侈品。托尼，我現在想說的是，事實是我不能 100% 確定我們在 2022 年第二季度的市場份額會發生什麼。鑑於 8-K我們發布了第三方對其數據所做的一些修改和免責聲明，我們經常與之進行比較。

So we're looking at our market share comparisons like MLS data that covers about 80% of our business and some other stuff. And all these measures have challenged it. But we like our agent growth in the quarter. We like the kind of very, very high retention that we've had. We like the ability to bring in kind of a larger than usual franchisee, and we're going to continue to stay focused on that. And like the earlier question, kind of asked, we're not coming off what we said at our Investor Day, which is growing our market share is going to be an important part of delivering the kind of financials we want to deliver for this group.

因此，我們正在查看我們的市場份額比較，例如覆蓋我們約 80% 業務的 MLS 數據和其他一些東西。所有這些措施都對其提出了挑戰。但我們喜歡本季度的代理增長。我們喜歡我們擁有的非常非常高的保留率。我們喜歡引進比平常更大的特許經營商的能力，我們將繼續專注於此。就像前面提到的問題一樣，我們並沒有脫離我們在投資者日所說的話，這正在增加我們的市場份額，這將成為提供我們希望為這個群體提供的那種財務的重要部分.

But as we sit here right in the second quarter, the data for the quarter is a little tough to judge, again, given some of the disclaimers people have done about the data we sometimes compare to. So we don't really have a clean comparison to give you, but we like the pieces that we saw and things do bounce around quarter-to-quarter. But I think if you look over time, we've been up on units and kind of like the price luxury thing we've been doing. So that's probably all I've got for you. It's a strange answer, and it's kind of late breaking. So hopefully, we'll have better comparisons for you in the future.

但是當我們在第二季度坐在這裡時，再一次，考慮到人們對我們有時比較的數據所做的一些免責聲明，該季度的數據有點難以判斷。因此，我們並沒有真正的明確比較可以給您，但我們喜歡我們看到的作品，而且事情確實會按季度反彈。但我認為，如果你隨著時間的推移看，我們一直在增加單位，有點像我們一直在做的價格奢侈的事情。所以這可能就是我為你準備的全部了。這是一個奇怪的答案，而且有點晚了。因此，希望我們將來能為您提供更好的比較。

Okay. Fair enough. But then on that competitive landscape, you talked about splits being up at least 175 basis points, I think, which is fairly consistent with what you've talked about before. I mean what are you seeing on that side? Has anything shifted for the better or worse given what's happening in the environment for housing?

好的。很公平。但是然後在那個競爭格局中，你談到分裂至少上升了 175 個基點，我認為，這與你之前談到的相當一致。我的意思是你在那邊看到了什麼？考慮到住房環境正在發生的事情，有什麼事情變得更好或更壞了嗎？

Yes. So a couple of thoughts on that. The quarter's agent commission splits were up 236 basis points. The majority of that was driven by agent mix still and the recruiting and retention. So most of that is driven by things we do control the recruiting and retention as well as the mix, which we kind of don't control. And with lower inventories and lower listings, the higher-cost agents are definitely getting a higher share and continue to get a higher share of the transaction. Now for the full year, I said 175 plus basis points on the year, so what that implies is that the rate of increase is going to go down. Part of what drives that is some of the heavy recruiting we did last year on the high-end agents, we start to lap that. So you're not increasing on top of an increase that you already had.

是的。所以有幾個想法。本季度的代理佣金分成增加了 236 個基點。其中大部分是由代理組合以及招聘和保留驅動的。所以大部分是由我們控制招聘和保留以及混合的事情驅動的，我們有點無法控制。隨著庫存減少和掛牌量減少，成本較高的代理商肯定會獲得更高的份額，並繼續獲得更高的交易份額。現在全年，我說今年增加了 175 個基點，所以這意味著增長率將會下降。部分原因是我們去年對高端代理商進行的大量招聘，我們開始對此進行分析。所以你不會在你已經擁有的增加之上增加。

So part of that just diminishes because of the timing of the actions that we've taken and part of that is driven by volume. Now normally, you won't see the volume impact until there the actual agent tables reset. So there's still more benefits from that to come. If volumes continue to go down, we're not rooting for that, obviously. So the single biggest driver of why things should abate is mostly due to lapping heavy recruiting we did last year in the fourth quarter.

因此，由於我們採取行動的時間安排，其中一部分只是減少了，其中一部分是由數量驅動的。現在通常，在實際代理表重置之前，您不會看到音量影響。所以還有更多的好處。如果交易量繼續下降，顯然我們不會支持這一點。因此，事情應該減弱的最大驅動因素主要是由於我們去年第四季度進行的大量招聘。

And Tony, I want to take a bunch of ownership here in the sense of we are here for profitable growth. And hopefully, you've seen that in times when we were willing to let the market share go if it was going to be negatively profitable. But part of the reason that we've got some of this upward pressure is we are excited about a bunch of the recruiting and retention success that we've had. And I would say in the last, I don't know, 6 to 9 months, we've also kind of shifted and been doing more of our recruiting at the higher end or in some of the higher end markets in a way that's also driven some of the upward pressure here.

托尼，我想在這裡獲得大量所有權，因為我們在這裡是為了盈利增長。希望你已經看到，如果我們願意讓市場份額流失，如果它會產生負利潤。但是，我們承受這種向上壓力的部分原因是我們對我們所取得的一系列招聘和留住成功感到興奮。我會說，在過去的 6 到 9 個月裡，我們也發生了變化，我們在高端或一些高端市場進行了更多的招聘，這種方式也是推動了這裡的一些上行壓力。

And so I think Charlotte's sharing kind of a higher guidance number on this topic than we had last quarter is the right thing to do. And I'm still intrigued by -- in a tough market, what it might do to the competitive environment because, again, even in a tougher market, we're throwing off some free cash flow. We make a good amount of EBITDA. It's probably too early to see how that translates into the agent recruiting and retention market, but I have a hypothesis or at least I hope that it will be a benefit to us. And an early indicator I've got of that actually is when we look at the industry numbers, Tony, we see about 19,000 agents moved in Q2, that's actually down from previous Q2s of like 25,000 or 30,000 agents moving.

因此，我認為夏洛特在這個主題上分享的指導數字比我們上個季度的要高，這是正確的做法。而且我仍然對 - 在艱難的市場中，它可能對競爭環境產生什麼影響感到好奇，因為即使在更艱難的市場中，我們也會放棄一些自由現金流。我們賺取了大量的 EBITDA。現在看這如何轉化為代理招聘和保留市場可能還為時過早，但我有一個假設，或者至少我希望這對我們有好處。我得到的一個早期指標實際上是當我們查看行業數據時，托尼，我們看到第二季度約有 19,000 名代理商搬遷，這實際上低於之前第二季度的 25,000 或 30,000 名搬家。

So there's something going on, I think, happening and I think as the market is tougher and companies under more pressure, there may be some benefit to us here because we have the octane to keep pushing for more of this profitable growth, but it does have a few of these ancillary hits like into the commission line sometimes. So we'll see how it plays out, but this environment may create some opportunities for a company like us that's got some strength and has the desire for growth that has the ability to do it still profitably, albeit occasionally at less margin maybe than the average.

所以有一些事情正在發生，我認為，正在發生，我認為隨著市場變得更加艱難，公司面臨更大的壓力，這裡可能對我們有一些好處，因為我們有能力繼續推動更多的盈利增長，但它確實有時會有一些這樣的輔助點擊進入佣金線。所以我們會看看結果如何，但這種環境可能會為像我們這樣的公司創造一些機會，這些公司有一定的實力，有增長的願望，有能力繼續盈利，儘管有時利潤率可能低於平均。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just if I can, last one maybe for Charlotte. Can you maybe help a bit on the free cash flow side. You talked about, I think, some working capital needs over the year, but you've also been buying back some stock and debt. I'm just trying to tie that together in the back half of the year.

知道了。這很有幫助。如果可以的話，最後一個可能是給夏洛特的。您能否在自由現金流方面提供一些幫助。我認為你談到了這一年的一些營運資金需求，但你也一直在回購一些股票和債務。我只是想在今年下半年把它聯繫起來。

Yes, sure. So as I said, we ended the year with $250 million plus of free cash flow, that's after we bought back the stock and retired $60 million of debt. In the quarter, it was a pretty material impact on net working capital because if you think about last year, our volume was up about 85%. You're building accruals at that time. sizable accruals tied to this gargantuan growth we had. Our volume is down 6%. So there's a complete reversal there. And then the securitization working capital had a material impact because as we start 40% up in client initiations and relo and then we start tapping into our securitization working capital. So most of the negative hits from working capital have actually already hit year-to-date.

是的，當然。因此，正如我所說，在我們回購股票並償還 6000 萬美元債務之後，我們以 2.5 億美元以上的自由現金流結束了這一年。在本季度，這對淨營運資本產生了相當大的影響，因為如果您考慮去年，我們的交易量增長了約 85%。你當時正在建立應計項目。與我們擁有的這種巨大增長相關的大量應計費用。我們的交易量下降了 6%。所以那裡有一個完全的逆轉。然後，證券化營運資金產生了重大影響，因為當我們開始在客戶啟動和重新啟動 40% 時，我們開始利用我們的證券化營運資金。因此，營運資金的大部分負面影響實際上已經在年初至今受到影響。

But on a full year basis, like if you look back over time over the past 5 years, net working capital most years is sort of like neutral-ish, but there are certain years like every 3 or 4 years just because of timing, like last year, we basically accrued a bunch of expenses that got paid out in March. So it hits you this year. And like I said, it actually already hit us. So it can be the most material swing on our free cash flow conversion, and we expect it to be so this year. Taxes were nothing. They were like a no impact to free cash flow conversion. And now it's sort of in the low double-digit numbers just because we're a full cash taxpayer. So hopefully, that helps.

但是在全年的基礎上，如果你回顧過去 5 年的時間，大多數年份的淨營運資本有點像中性的，但有些年份就像每 3 年或 4 年一樣，只是因為時間問題，比如去年，我們基本上積累了一堆在三月份支付的費用。所以今年它打擊了你。就像我說的，它實際上已經擊中了我們。因此，這可能是我們自由現金流轉換中最重要的波動，我們預計今年會如此。稅收什麼都不是。它們對自由現金流轉換沒有影響。現在它有點低兩位數，只是因為我們是一個全額現金納稅人。所以希望，這會有所幫助。

Tony, it's Ryan. I'd love to make a comment here a little bit out of my lane, but also just so you and our owners can know how I think about it, which is if you look back at our company, we're kind of a 40% to, whatever, 70% free cash flow conversion company, right? And in strong earnings years and not a lot of working capital violence, we're on the high side of that. In years where our earnings are less/there's the working capital stuff I talked about, we're more like on the 40% side, right? To me, I look at those cash taxes and you can do the math on it, and it's basically 15% to 20% now that we're a full cash taxpayer.

托尼，我是瑞恩。我很想在這裡發表評論，但也只是為了讓你和我們的老闆知道我是怎麼想的，如果你回頭看看我們的公司，我們是 40 % 到，無論如何，70% 的自由現金流轉換公司，對吧？在強勁的盈利年份，而不是大量的營運資本暴力，我們處於高位。在我們的收入較少/我談到的營運資金方面，我們更像是在 40% 方面，對吧？對我來說，我看看那些現金稅，你可以計算一下，現在我們是一個完整的現金納稅人，基本上是 15% 到 20%。

So in my head, I've kind of reset my expectations for our free cash flow conversion range from 40% to 75% to more like 25% to 55% because of the cash tax thing. And then again, kind of the EBITDA and working capital kind of swings for the year kind of push us to one end or the other of that. And I found that to be a helpful framework as I just think about both what we are delivering and what we're trying to deliver.

所以在我的腦海裡，由於現金稅的原因，我對我們的自由現金流轉換範圍的預期從 40% 到 75% 重新調整到了 25% 到 55% 左右。再說一次，今年的 EBITDA 和營運資金的某種波動將我們推向了這樣或那樣的結局。我發現這是一個有用的框架，因為我只考慮我們正在交付的內容和我們正在嘗試交付的內容。

And we will take our next question from Tommy McJoynt with KBW.

我們將回答來自 KBW 的 Tommy McJoynt 的下一個問題。

So we've seen some pretty meaningful divergence in the year-over-year trends in brands versus the high-end advisors. How much of that would you attribute to this type of comps last year versus general kind of outperformance in the luxury segment or maybe any other factors? And when do you think those factors should subside and bring those 2 segments' growth rates back closer to parity?

因此，我們已經看到品牌與高端顧問的同比趨勢存在一些非常有意義的差異。與去年在奢侈品領域的普遍表現相比，或者任何其他因素，您會將其中多少歸因於這種類型的組合？您認為這些因素何時應該消退並使這兩個細分市場的增長率更接近平價？

It's a great question, and thank you for asking it. And I think Charlotte referred a little bit. Last year in Q2, we had whatever it was 80-plus percent kind of year-over-year growth. The brand side, especially the luxury brands drove a huge piece of that, right? So they're lapping something that's much tougher than kind of a lot of the rest of the portfolio. That is a piece of it. But I tried to lay out the biggest 3 reasons. One was just geography, right? Given how we're architected, New York City, for example, New York City was up 8 points of volume in Q2 when our portfolio was down negative 6%, right? New York City, I think is our second biggest market as a company. But New York City is only on the adviser side, right? We don't really have a franchise presence of any size in New York City.

這是一個很好的問題，感謝您提出這個問題。我認為夏洛特提到了一點。去年第二季度，我們實現了 80% 以上的同比增長。品牌方面，尤其是奢侈品牌，佔了很大一部分，對吧？因此，他們正在開發比其他產品組合更難的東西。那是其中的一部分。但我試圖列出最大的三個原因。一個只是地理，對吧？考慮到我們的架構，以紐約市為例，當我們的投資組合下跌 6% 時，紐約市的交易量在第二季度上漲了 8 個百分點，對吧？我認為紐約市是我們公司的第二大市場。但紐約市只是顧問方，對吧？我們在紐約市實際上沒有任何規模的特許經營店。

So what Corcoran and Sotheby's International Realty and Coldwell Banker did in New York City, really was a swing. And that's just one example of the geography, but it's like the most striking. Second, those 3 brands on our own side, Corcoran, SIR and Coldwell Banker do skew more luxury, as you heard in my listings commentary and stuff like that, we really like what's going on with us in luxury at least on a relative basis, if nothing else.

所以 Corcoran 和 Sotheby's International Realty 和 Coldwell Banker 在紐約市所做的，真的是一次搖擺。這只是地理的一個例子，但它是最引人注目的。其次，我們自己的這 3 個品牌，Corcoran、SIR 和 Coldwell Banker 確實更偏向於奢侈品，正如你在我的列表評論和類似的東西中聽到的那樣，我們真的很喜歡我們在奢侈品方面的情況，至少在相對的基礎上，如果沒有別的。

And then third, we did in April bring a franchise into our owned area up in Seattle. It's a luxury market. We didn't have a presence in. It was a way to keep the franchisee who is exiting the business in our network. And you'll see in our press release that actually, without that, that was like 3 points of the difference basically on the adviser side. So those 3 things are really what drove the difference. I don't know if the geographic thing is going to kind of normalize and flatten out. I think the luxury outperformance will continue. And then obviously, the acquisition will continue to carry into the numbers when you do year-over-year comparisons. So that's how I'd answer it.

第三，我們在 4 月份確實將特許經營權帶入了我們在西雅圖的自有地區。這是一個奢侈品市場。我們沒有參與。這是一種將退出業務的加盟商保留在我們網絡中的方式。您會在我們的新聞稿中看到，實際上，如果沒有這個，顧問方面基本上相差 3 分。所以這三件事是真正推動差異的原因。我不知道地理上的事情是否會正常化和變平。我認為奢侈品的表現將繼續。然後很明顯，當您進行年度比較時，此次收購將繼續影響數字。所以我會這樣回答。

And then switching over a little bit to the mortgage JV. We saw a sequential improvement and a kind of a tough market for kind of mortgage broadly. Do you kind of have an outlook for that kind of segment in particular in the back half of the year and into next year?

然後稍微切換到抵押貸款合資企業。我們看到了抵押貸款的連續改善和艱難的市場。您是否對這類細分市場有展望，尤其是在下半年和明年？

Yes. We haven't shared a specific outlook. I would tell you that we think we're faring as good or better as other mortgage companies, you do highlight the sort of sequential improvement. So we are obviously taking actions to continue to balance the cost structure. But we remain focused on growing our loan officer base, and like it applies across the broader business too. So we will continue to make selective investments for long-term growth because while it is painful in the short term, we like this business for the long term. So I don't expect it to be a material contributor to our EBITDA for the rest of the year, just like most mortgage companies and again, probably faring better than some of them. But ongoing, we still have a lot of love for this business and think once we can get past the acute macro issues that we're experiencing right now that this is going to be a great business for us.

是的。我們沒有分享具體的前景。我會告訴你，我們認為我們的表現與其他抵押貸款公司一樣好或更好，你確實強調了這種連續改進。因此，我們顯然正在採取行動繼續平衡成本結構。但我們仍然專注於擴大我們的信貸員基礎，並且它也適用於更廣泛的業務。因此，我們將繼續為長期增長進行選擇性投資，因為雖然短期內很痛苦，但我們長期看好這項業務。因此，我預計它不會像大多數抵押貸款公司一樣，在今年餘下的時間裡對我們的 EBITDA 做出重大貢獻，而且可能會比其中一些公司表現更好。但是，我們仍然對這項業務充滿熱愛，並認為一旦我們能夠克服我們現在正在經歷的嚴重宏觀問題，這對我們來說將是一項偉大的業務。

We will take our next question from Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

我們將向巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley 提出下一個問題。

I wanted to follow up on the commission split outlook. It sounded like the assumptions around the second half of the year are more a reflection of sort of a continuation of prior trends. And I think I've heard you right, it's not yet reflecting the changes to agent split tables. I'm just curious, I guess, if transaction volumes play out the way you've guided, is there sort of a tangible benefit to commission splits as we think about 2023 or is this sort of constant upward pressure related to recruiting end up kind of outweighing that?

我想跟進佣金分割前景。聽起來下半年左右的假設更多地反映了先前趨勢的延續。而且我想我沒聽錯，它還沒有反映對代理拆分錶的更改。我只是好奇，我猜，如果交易量按照您所指導的方式發揮作用，那麼在我們考慮 2023 年時，佣金拆分是否有某種切實的好處，或者這種與招聘相關的持續上行壓力最終會成為一種超過那個？

Sure. At some point, if volumes were to continue to be down, the tables do reset. I mean, again, we're not rooting for continued volume decreases. So I think the one thing I would point you to is this mix piece because it is material. And I think it ties into why we continue to heavily recruit at the high end because until the inventory situation improves, a lot of the higher-end agents are just getting a higher percentage of the transaction. So it's important that we have a strong base on the higher-producing agents, which tend to cost more. So we're going to continue to do that where it is profit positive for us.

當然。在某些時候，如果交易量繼續下降，表格會重置。我的意思是，我們不支持繼續減少交易量。所以我想我要給你指出的一件事是這個混音作品，因為它是物質的。而且我認為這與我們繼續在高端招聘的原因有關，因為在庫存狀況改善之前，許多高端代理商只會獲得更高比例的交易。因此，重要的是我們擁有高產代理的強大基礎，這些代理往往成本更高。因此，我們將繼續這樣做，這對我們有利。

Like Ryan said, you may have a bit of a margin hit. But the agent mix thing is the thing that we would hope in the longer term does settle itself out, but it is correlated to inventories. So I hope on the flip side of that, though, you have seen us be super proactive on our cost actions. And so while we do want to invest in the higher-end agents and in our agent growth, and I also did mention we have continued historical high retention as well. So it's the value proposition that we're investing in, which helps us to balance splits for the longer term. But the cost saves are what we're focused on in the short term too, to make sure that we have the right balance between investing for growth in splits versus profitability.

就像瑞安說的那樣，你可能會受到一點利潤打擊。但是代理混合的事情是我們希望從長遠來看會自行解決的事情，但它與庫存相關。所以我希望另一方面，你已經看到我們在成本行動上非常積極主動。因此，雖然我們確實想投資於高端代理和我們的代理增長，但我也確實提到我們也保持了歷史上的高留存率。所以這是我們投資的價值主張，這有助於我們在長期內平衡分裂。但是，節省成本也是我們在短期內關注的重點，以確保我們在投資拆分增長與盈利之間取得適當的平衡。

Got it. Okay. And then second one, just following up on the transaction volume guide, that discussion. I mean it sounds like it's hard to make a call on share here, as you mentioned, given the 8-K kind of inability to compare versus the market with that change in data. But I think NAR yesterday spoke to something more like a low single-digit decline in transaction volume dollars for the year just based on their assumptions around units and median price.

知道了。好的。然後是第二個，只是跟進交易量指南，即討論。我的意思是，正如你所提到的，鑑於 8-K 無法通過數據的變化與市場進行比較，這聽起來很難在這裡進行分享。但我認為 NAR 昨天談到的事情更像是基於他們對單位和中位數價格的假設，今年交易量美元出現了低個位數的下降。

My question is, given your assumption, is this sort of ripping the band-aid off and just kind of level setting the market for a range of just weakening outcomes that could potentially happen? Or is this you really looking into the past 8 weeks of the business trends and saying that this assumption for the second half of the year is basically what's been happening for the past 8 weeks. So kind of is the assumption worsening or basically just kind of equivalent to what we've seen over the past 8 weeks.

我的問題是，根據你的假設，這種做法是不是扯掉了創可貼，只是為市場設定了一系列可能發生的削弱結果的水平？或者這是你真的在研究過去 8 週的業務趨勢，並說今年下半年的這個假設基本上是過去 8 週發生的事情。假設有點惡化，或者基本上與我們在過去 8 周中看到的情況相當。

So again, I think it's given some of the disclaimers that people have made about third-party data out there, it's tough to do price comparisons these days. Look, what we're trying to do here is just be as clear as possible both about what we're seeing and kind of what we think the range would be kind of based off what we're seeing, not just in the moment, but even some of the trend stuff that we're seeing. I think putting prices aside, kind of what we're seeing and what we're talking about on the unit side is, I think, kind of in the ZIP code of what some other people have been forecasting. But again, ours is literally what we're seeing and then we're coming up with our kind of range out of that.

再說一次，我認為鑑於人們對第三方數據做出的一些免責聲明，如今很難進行價格比較。看，我們在這裡要做的就是盡可能清楚地了解我們所看到的以及我們認為範圍將基於我們所看到的，而不僅僅是目前，但即使是我們看到的一些趨勢的東西。我認為撇開價格不談，我們所看到的以及我們在單位方面所談論的，我認為，在其他人一直在預測的郵政編碼中。但同樣，我們的確實是我們所看到的，然後我們提出了我們的範圍之外的範圍。

On the price side, again, we gave you exactly what we're seeing. So we've got that info for you. And then how we do on a relative basis, we'll see, right? But we do have the leading indicators we have, whether it's on the agent growth front or the franchise expansion front. So as I kind of said, for the last 4 years, we never gave you any guidance on this kind of stuff, right? And there's a constituent of people listening to this call who told me that was a bad idea to not do that. This year has been a pretty challenging year. And our estimates have never tried to be estimates that we guarantee are going to come to fruition because I think it's a very hard thing to predict the housing market and the macro, I think this year kind of showed that. because, again, our volume was running consistent with our start of the year guidance for a big part of year 2022, but the world has changed on us. So what we're really trying to do here is just give you as much recent debt as we can and kind of what we're literally estimating in our business from our perspective.

在價格方面，我們再次為您提供了我們所看到的。所以我們已經為您準備好了這些信息。然後我們如何在相對的基礎上做，我們會看到，對吧？但我們確實有我們擁有的領先指標，無論是在代理增長方面還是在特許經營擴張方面。所以就像我說的那樣，在過去的 4 年裡，我們從來沒有給你任何關於這類事情的指導，對吧？有一部分人在聽這個電話，他們告訴我不這樣做是個壞主意。今年是相當具有挑戰性的一年。而且我們的估計從未試圖成為我們保證會實現的估計，因為我認為預測房地產市場和宏觀是一件非常困難的事情，我認為今年已經證明了這一點。因為，我們的銷量再次與我們在 2022 年大部分時間的年初指導一致，但世界已經改變了我們。所以我們在這裡真正想做的就是盡可能多地給你最近的債務，以及從我們的角度來看我們在業務中實際估計的東西。

And we're not that interested in kind of trying to like be forecasters versus others and who's right and who's wrong. But we've literally shared with you our data through late July of what we're seeing. And then what we're assuming for the rest of the year based off that data and the trending that we're seeing. And giving you hopefully a framework that if you have a different view, you can plug that in and then you can adjust the other parts of our estimates for that. But as we talked about, I talked about earlier, it's a little wider range than probably we'd like to provide you of our estimates, in part because of the uncertainty of the prediction here for the second half of the year that's implied in your question. So we hope the transparency and the view of our estimates is helpful, but they're also not tablets coming off a mountain written in stone that are guaranteed to last for thousands of years.

而且我們對試圖成為預測者而不是其他人以及誰對誰錯並不感興趣。但是，我們已經從字面上與您分享了截至 7 月下旬我們所看到的數據。然後我們根據這些數據和我們所看到的趨勢對今年餘下的時間進行假設。並希望為您提供一個框架，如果您有不同的觀點，您可以將其插入，然後您可以為此調整我們估計的其他部分。但是正如我們之前談到的那樣，它可能比我們希望向您提供的估計範圍要寬一些，部分原因是您對下半年的預測存在不確定性問題。因此，我們希望我們的估計的透明度和觀點是有幫助的，但它們也不是從山上下來的石板，可以保證可以持續數千年。

But the spirit of the range is sent to try to put a very broad framework around what we think sort of the best case scenario could be in like sort of more your rip the band-aid off scenario kind of thing. Like Ryan said, we haven't provided these ranges in the past. So there is some spirit there behind trying to do that for you guys.

但是，該範圍的精神是試圖圍繞我們認為最好的情況可能會建立一個非常廣泛的框架，就像你撕掉創可貼的情況一樣。正如 Ryan 所說，我們過去沒有提供這些範圍。所以在為你們做這件事的背後有一些精神。

And we will take our next question from Kwaku Abrokwah with Goldman Sachs.

我們將向高盛的 Kwaku Abrokwah 提出我們的下一個問題。

Most of my questions were answered, but I just wanted to follow up on the free cash flow discussion here and sort of the relocation receivables. Just can you give us a sense of sort of, first, given that the receivables are going up, it seems like the relocation business is picking up again. Can you give us a little bit of an update on that business? And then second, where could that working capital uses to go over the next year or so?

我的大部分問題都得到了回答，但我只想跟進這裡的自由現金流討論和搬遷應收款的分類。您能否給我們一種感覺，首先，鑑於應收賬款正在增加，搬遷業務似乎再次回暖。您能給我們介紹一下該業務的最新情況嗎？其次，在接下來的一年左右的時間裡，營運資金可以用在哪裡？

Yes. So we're really pleased with our relocation business. The progress has been amazing. It's actually, initiations are even up over 2019. So, not only is it rebounded, it's even better than it was before COVID hit. So we continue to make investments in that business throughout COVID, especially after it because of all the success in the rest of our business. And we think that business is well positioned. So yes, so what happens with the securitization is as you start to build growth, you tap into it, but then that it basically unwinds itself. And usually, the securitization ends up being like a neutral factor on the year, it's just acute in the quarter. So that should unwind as it sort of settles itself out. If we continue to grow more than 40%, it will continue to build. So 40% was just a material number, and that's why it's so acute in the quarter.

是的。所以我們對我們的搬遷業務感到非常滿意。進展是驚人的。實際上，與 2019 年相比，入會人數甚至有所增加。因此，它不僅反彈，而且比 COVID 爆發之前還要好。因此，我們繼續在整個 COVID 期間對該業務進行投資，尤其是在此之後，因為我們在其他業務中取得了所有成功。我們認為該業務處於有利地位。所以是的，所以證券化發生的事情是當你開始建立增長時，你利用它，但隨後它基本上會自行放鬆。通常，證券化最終會成為當年的中性因素，而在本季度卻很嚴重。所以這應該會放鬆，因為它會自行解決。如果我們繼續增長超過 40%，它將繼續建立。所以 40% 只是一個重要數字，這就是它在本季度如此嚴重的原因。

As far as the next year for working capital, like I tried to say, the reason we have negative net working capital aside from the securitization is just timing of accruals and because of the strength of our business over the past 2 years, there's accruals that sit in the business at year-end where the cash flow comes out in the first quarter to pay those accruals, and it was very material and you can see it in our Q1 actuals. So most of that between Q1 and Q2 is actually already hit. There can be some small variation. But going forward, once you've lapped that, it should not continue to be a drain for us over the next 12 months.

至於明年的營運資金，就像我試圖說的那樣，除了證券化之外，我們的淨營運資金為負的原因只是應計的時間，而且由於我們過去兩年的業務實力，有應計坐在年底的業務中，第一季度出現現金流來支付這些應計費用，這非常重要，您可以在我們的第一季度實際情況中看到它。所以第一季度和第二季度之間的大部分實際上已經受到打擊。可能會有一些小的變化。但展望未來，一旦你完成了這一點，在接下來的 12 個月裡，它不應該繼續成為我們的消耗品。

Perfect. And just to continue on some of the trends in the macro, like I think when we were having, when you guys were hosting the Investor Day, it seemed like the high end or the luxury end was really much more resilient than the other price points. And then something seems to have happened in June. Can you give us a little bit of puts and takes as to how that transition sort of transpired so to speak, and what you were seeing in the transition from May into June and potentially into early July?

完美的。只是為了繼續宏觀的一些趨勢，就像我認為當我們舉辦投資者日時，高端或豪華端似乎比其他價格點更具彈性.然後在六月似乎發生了一些事情。你能給我們一些關於這種轉變是如何發生的，以及你在從 5 月到 6 月以及可能到 7 月初的轉變中看到的情況嗎？

Well, yes, I think the -- I mean the June and July kind of drop off is clearly a cross market, but I think on a relative basis, in our portfolio at least, this may not be true for everybody in our portfolio at least, the luxury stuff is still more resilient, right? And some of that is luxury has got a little more cash buyers, so you don't have as much of the mortgage hit. But I talked earlier about the kind of the luxury kind of part of our own brokerage business kind of is part of the reason that business is outperforming the broader kind of more national franchise business, our 500,000 up listings are actually growing, right, not shrinking versus a year ago, whereas the mass market listings are dropping versus a year ago.

嗯，是的，我認為 - 我的意思是 6 月和 7 月的下跌顯然是一個交叉市場，但我認為相對而言，至少在我們的投資組合中，這可能不適用於我們投資組合中的每個人至少，奢侈品還是更有彈性的，對吧？其中一些是奢侈品有更多的現金買家，所以你沒有那麼多的抵押貸款。但我之前談到了我們自己的經紀業務中的那種奢侈品，這是業務表現優於更廣泛的全國特許經營業務的部分原因，我們的 500,000 個上市房源實際上在增長，對，而不是萎縮與一年前相比，而大眾市場上市與一年前相比正在下降。

So I think the whole market has moved, but I think the relative performance within the market may not be that much different, at least in our portfolio from what it was in May. And I think it's the same reasons, less impact on mortgage, kind of the fact that the higher end people are still doing well. And I think both sellers and buyers have kind of reset expectations, and that adjustment might be happening a little faster on the luxury side.

所以我認為整個市場已經發生了變化，但我認為市場內的相對錶現可能並沒有太大的不同，至少在我們的投資組合中與 5 月份的表現沒有太大區別。而且我認為這是相同的原因，對抵押貸款的影響較小，事實上高端人士仍然做得很好。而且我認為賣家和買家都有重新設定的預期，而且這種調整在奢侈品方面可能會發生得更快一些。

And part of it, there was also the lap like Ryan called out. So that business performed above our 85% volume growth last year. Volume was a very high contributor to that. So I think in part the year-over-year lap is impacting things, too.

其中一部分，還有像瑞恩所說的那一圈。因此，該業務的表現超過了我們去年 85% 的銷量增長。成交量是一個非常高的貢獻者。所以我認為在一定程度上，同比的單圈也在影響著一些事情。

We will take our next question from Ryan McKeveny with Zelman & Associates.

我們將回答來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Ryan McKeveny 的下一個問題。

Charlotte, I know we're all very focused on the recent and near-term dynamics. And certainly, the incremental $70 million of cost savings this year makes sense. But can you help us think about kind of cost saving opportunities or incremental levers that could be pulled next year if transaction volume in 2023 is actually worse than 2022. And I'm are so curious on actual kind of operating expense cost savings as opposed to some of the flex points around things like splits or commission rates or franchise royalties. So again, just kind of curious if on the OpEx cost savings as you look into next year, is there still opportunity to take cost out of the business. And I know you've been on a path of cost savings for quite a few years. So just not sure if the low-hanging fruit is already out of the business or if there's incremental opportunity going forward?

夏洛特，我知道我們都非常關注近期和近期的動態。當然，今年增加的 7000 萬美元成本節約是有道理的。但是，如果 2023 年的交易量實際上比 2022 年更差，您能否幫助我們考慮一下明年可以採取的節省成本的機會或增量槓桿。我對實際節省的運營費用成本非常好奇，而不是圍繞拆分或佣金率或特許權使用費等問題的一些彈性點。所以再次，有點好奇，如果您在明年考慮節省運營支出成本，是否仍有機會從業務中扣除成本。而且我知道您已經走在節省成本的道路上好幾年了。所以只是不確定低垂的果實是否已經被淘汰，或者未來是否有增量機會？

Thanks for the question. Yes. So we committed to a $300 million-ish target for over the horizon of 2022 through 2026. So hopefully, that does indicate, I do believe there's a lot more cost that can be taken out of this business. And that's why I tried to articulate this temporary cost stuff that we're doing is not part of that because it can just be short-term things where we dramatically reduce expenses and discretionary spending one way or the other, but that's not how we would run our business going forward. So I don't want that to be committed to trying to deliver the $300 million.

謝謝你的問題。是的。因此，我們承諾在 2022 年至 2026 年期間實現 3 億美元的目標。希望這確實表明，我確實相信可以從這項業務中扣除更多成本。這就是為什麼我試圖闡明我們正在做的臨時成本不是其中的一部分，因為它可能只是短期的事情，我們以一種或另一種方式大幅減少開支和可自由支配的支出，但這不是我們的方式繼續經營我們的業務。所以我不希望它致力於交付 3 億美元。

A lot of what actually we do is flex our sort of our workforce model based on volume because if you can think about it, a pretty sizable portion of our employee base actually supports these transactions. And if there's 20% less transactions to have to do, it's a constant thing that we're doing and markets can be different. So we're constantly flexing our workforce model relative to the amount of transactions that we need to handle both up and down. You can't really say that that's permanent cost savings because it's really just a flex based on volume. So that's part of what we're doing this year.

我們實際上做的很多事情都是根據數量來調整我們的勞動力模型，因為如果你能想到的話，我們員工群中相當大的一部分實際上支持這些交易。如果要做的交易減少 20%，這是我們一直在做的事情，市場可能會有所不同。因此，我們不斷根據我們需要處理的上下交易量來調整我們的勞動力模型。你不能說這是永久性的成本節約，因為它實際上只是基於數量的彈性。這就是我們今年要做的事情的一部分。

The stuff that's part of our long-term plan that we shared at Investor Day is literally reimagining the transaction, which will be much more automated. And so I feel very good about the $300 million target. I feel like there's definitely more room to go. Part of what we're dealing with right now is just flexing things based on some acute changes in the market, which we would normally do, whether it's 5%, 20%, any percent, whether it's up or down.

我們在投資者日分享的長期計劃中的內容實際上是重新構想交易，這將更加自動化。所以我對 3 億美元的目標感覺很好。我覺得肯定還有更多的空間可以去。我們現在正在處理的部分事情只是根據市場的一些劇烈變化來調整事情，我們通常會這樣做，無論是 5%、20% 還是任何百分比，無論是上漲還是下跌。

That's very helpful. Charlotte. And Ryan, one for you. I wanted to dig in a bit on the M&A and investment environment. So one of the things we're picking up on is it does seem that there's independents looking to acquire. There's other independents looking to sell. I'm not sure if those dynamics have changed as the market has shifted over the last month or 2. But we've also seen over the last year, private equity interest in investing in well-run franchisees or in some cases independents.

這很有幫助。夏洛特。還有瑞恩，給你一個。我想深入探討一下併購和投資環境。因此，我們正在關注的一件事是，似乎確實有獨立人士希望收購。還有其他獨立人士想要出售。我不確定這些動態是否隨著市場在過去一個月或 2 個月的變化而發生變化。但我們在過去一年中也看到，私募股權投資於經營良好的特許經營商或在某些情況下獨立的企業。

So I guess I'm just curious, are you seeing a shift in the market around just industry consolidation or attractive acquisition opportunities potentially for your business? And kind of the second piece of that is just into a more challenging macro backdrop, any thoughts on how you think about M&A or consolidation opportunities within the brokerage segment or maybe more so in the franchise side with potentially lining up deals or helping some of the franchisees potentially acquire, consolidate amongst themselves?

所以我想我只是好奇，您是否看到市場發生轉變，僅圍繞行業整合或對您的業務潛在的有吸引力的收購機會？第二部分只是進入一個更具挑戰性的宏觀背景，任何關於您如何看待經紀部門內的併購或整合機會的想法，或者在特許經營方面可能更是如此，可能會排隊交易或幫助一些加盟商可能會在他們之間獲得、整合？

Yes. So I'll try to keep it brief here because I know we're at the period of time. Look, so we're trying to be pretty selective on M&A kind of stuff that we do, kind of either luxury focused or the pricing has to be really attractive. And we're always out there trying to help either our franchisees make marriages or as I talked at Investor Day, we've kind of helped some third-party capital kind of come into the industry among our franchise network. And so we'll keep doing those things.

是的。所以我會盡量在這裡保持簡短，因為我知道我們正處於這個時期。看，所以我們試圖對我們所做的併購類的東西非常有選擇性，要么專注於奢侈品，要么定價必須非常有吸引力。而且我們總是在那裡試圖幫助我們的特許經營者結婚，或者正如我在投資者日所說的那樣，我們已經幫助一些第三方資本進入我們的特許經營網絡中的行業。所以我們會繼續做這些事情。

I think the market is changing so fast that I don't really have a new read on it. I would expect in a more challenging housing market for there to be more consolidation opportunities. I think consolidation is inevitable no matter what. And I would expect the prices to adjust in a tougher market, which again could be another place where our strength could let us take advantage of something relative to the competition. But it's a little too early to have a different set of data on that for you. So I'll probably just leave it there.

我認為市場變化如此之快，以至於我並沒有真正了解它。我預計在更具挑戰性的房地產市場中會有更多的整合機會。我認為無論如何整合都是不可避免的。而且我預計價格會在更艱難的市場中調整，這可能又是另一個地方，我們的實力可以讓我們利用與競爭相關的東西。但是現在為您提供一組不同的數據還為時過早。所以我可能會把它留在那裡。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。