Hess Midstream LP (HESM) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the First Quarter 2025 Hess Midstream Conference Call. My name is Kevin, and I'll be your operator for today. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

女士們、先生們，大家好！歡迎參加2025年第一季Hess中游業務電話會議。我叫Kevin，今天將擔任您的接線生。 （接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音，以便回放。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Gordon, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

現在，我想將會議交給投資人關係副總裁Jennifer Gordon。請繼續。

Thank you, Kevin. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in our first quarter earnings conference call. Our earnings release was issued this morning and appears on our website, www.hessmidstream.com.

謝謝凱文。大家下午好，感謝大家參加我們第一季財報電話會議。我們的財報已於今天上午發布，並刊登在我們的網站 www.hessmidstream.com 上。

Today's conference call contains projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in such statements. These risks include those set forth in the Risk Factors section of Hess Midstream's filings with the SEC.

今天的電話會議包含聯邦證券法所定義的預測和其他前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受已知和未知的風險及不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中明示或暗示的結果不同。這些風險包括 Hess Midstream 向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件中「風險因素」部分中列出的風險。

Also on today's conference call, we may discuss certain GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the earnings release. With me today are John Gatling, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Jonathan Stein, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to John Gatling.

此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們可能會討論某些 GAAP 財務指標。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標之間的差異調整表可在財報發布中找到。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有總裁兼營運長 John Gatling 和財務長 Jonathan Stein。現在，我將電話會議交給 John Gatling。

Thanks, Jennifer. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Hess Midstream's First Quarter 2025 Conference Call. Today, I'll discuss our first quarter performance and review Hess Corporation's results and outlook for the Bakken. Jonathan will then review our financial results and guidance.

謝謝，珍妮佛。大家下午好，歡迎參加Hess Midstream 2025年第一季電話會議。今天，我將討論我們第一季的業績，並回顧Hess Corporation的業績以及對巴肯地區的展望。之後，喬納森將回顧我們的財務表現和展望。

In the first quarter, Hess Midstream delivered strong operating and financial performance despite challenging weather. Throughput volumes averaged 424 million cubic foot per day for gas processing, 125,000 barrels of oil per day for crude terminaling, and 126,000 barrels of water per day for water gathering. In line with our guidance, throughput volumes were down compared to the fourth quarter, reflecting lower production from Hess due to severe winter weather in January and February, partially offset by higher third-party oil volumes and a strong recovery in March.

第一季度，儘管天氣條件嚴峻，赫斯中游 (Hess Midstream) 仍實現了強勁的營運和財務業績。天然氣處理平均吞吐量為 4.24 億立方英尺/天，原油碼頭平均吞吐量為 12.5 萬桶/天，水收集平均吞吐量為 12.6 萬桶/天。與我們的預期一致，吞吐量較第四季度有所下降，原因是赫斯中游在 1 月和 2 月的嚴寒天氣中產量下降，但第三方石油產量增加和 3 月的強勁復甦部分抵消了這一影響。

Now turning to Hess Upstream highlights. Earlier today, Hess reported first quarter net production for the Bakken averaged 195,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Hess reiterated their plans to continue running a 4-rig drilling program in 2025 and expects Bakken net production to be in the range of 210,000 to 215,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter, up approximately 9% at the midpoint compared to the first quarter.

現在來看看赫斯上游的亮點。今天早些時候，赫斯公佈了巴肯地區第一季平均淨產量為19.5萬桶油當量/日。赫斯重申了其計劃在2025年繼續運行一個由4個鑽機組成的鑽井項目，並預計巴肯地區第二季度淨產量將在21萬至21.5萬桶油當量/日之間，中值較第一季增長約9%。

Turning to Hess Midstream guidance. We're reaffirming our previously announced full year 2025 financial and throughput guidance. In the second quarter, we expect volume growth from the first quarter across our oil and gas systems, partially offset by higher seasonal maintenance activity.

關於赫斯中游業務的指引。我們重申先前宣布的2025年全年財務和產量指引。我們預計第二季油氣系統的產量將較第一季成長，但季節性維護活動的增加將部分抵銷這一成長。

Turning to Hess Midstream's capital program. Our multiyear projects continue as planned. In 2025, we remain focused on completion of two new compressor stations and their associated gathering systems as well as starting civil construction on the Capa gas plant. Full year 2025 capital expenditures remain unchanged and are expected to total approximately $300 million.

談到赫斯中游的資本計畫。我們的多年期項目正在按計劃推進。 2025年，我們將繼續專注於完成兩座新的壓縮機站及其相關的集氣系統，並啟動卡帕天然氣廠的土木工程。 2025年全年資本支出維持不變，預計總額約3億美元。

In summary, we remain focused on executing our strategy of disciplined low-risk investments to meet basin demand while maintaining reliable operations and strong financial performance. We expect our growth strategy to generate sustainable cash flow and create opportunities to return additional capital to our shareholders. I'll now turn the call over to Jonathan to review our financial results and guidance.

總而言之，我們將繼續專注於執行嚴謹的低風險投資策略，以滿足盆地需求，同時保持可靠的營運和強勁的財務表現。我們期望我們的成長策略能夠產生可持續的現金流，並創造機會為股東帶來更多資本回報。現在，我將把電話轉給喬納森，讓他回顧我們的財務表現和預期。

Thanks, John, and good afternoon, everyone. We continue to execute a financial strategy that prioritizes return of capital to shareholders with a demonstrated track record of differentiated shareholder returns. Since the beginning of 2021, we have returned $1.95 billion to shareholders through accretive repurchases. In addition, through the combination of our 5% targeted annual distribution growth and 10 distribution level increases following each repurchase, we have increased our distribution per Class A share by approximately 57% since 2021. As a result, our total shareholder return yield is one of the highest of our midstream peers.

謝謝，約翰，大家下午好。我們繼續執行以股東資本回報為優先的財務策略，並擁有卓越的差異化股東回報記錄。自2021年初以來，我們已透過增值回購向股東返還了19.5億美元。此外，透過5%的年度分配成長目標以及每次回購後10次的分配水準提升，自2021年以來，我們已將每股A類股的分配額提高了約57%。因此，我們的股東總回報率在中游同行中名列前茅。

Furthermore, our leverage of approximately 3.1 times adjusted EBITDA is one of the lowest among our peers, highlighting our differentiated ability to deliver significant shareholder returns while also maintaining balance sheet strength. In January, we announced that we expect to generate greater than $1.25 billion of financial flexibility through 2027 for incremental shareholder returns, including the potential for multiple unit repurchases per year over this period.

此外，我們的槓桿率約為調整後EBITDA的3.1倍，在同業中處於最低水平之一，這凸顯了我們差異化的能力，能夠在保持資產負債表強勁的同時，為股東帶來豐厚的回報。今年1月，我們宣布，預計到2027年將創造超過12.5億美元的財務彈性，以增加股東回報，其中包括在此期間每年進行多次單位回購的可能性。

We have also announced that we are targeting annual distribution per Class A share growth of at least 5% through 2027, which is supported by existing MVCs. This week, we announced our first quarter distribution increase that is consistent with this targeted 5% annual growth per Class A share.

我們也宣布，我們的目標是到2027年，A類股每股年派息成長率至少達到5%，這得益於現有多資產支持證券（MVC）。本週，我們宣布了第一季派息成長，這與A類股每股5%的年增率目標一致。

Turning to our results. For the first quarter of 2025, net income was $161 million compared to $172 million for the fourth quarter of 2024. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2025 was $292 million compared to $298 million for the fourth quarter of 2024. As guided in January, adjusted EBITDA decreased relative to the fourth quarter of 2024 as was primarily attributable to low volumes and revenues, partially offset by lower costs and the annual increase in rates due to inflation.

回顧我們的業績。 2025年第一季，淨收入為1.61億美元，而2024年第四季為1.72億美元。 2025年第一季調整後EBITDA為2.92億美元，而2024年第四季為2.98億美元。正如1月份的預測，調整後EBITDA較2024年第四季有所下降，主要原因是銷量和收入較低，但成本下降和通貨膨脹導致的年度利率上調部分抵消了這一影響。

Total revenues, excluding pass-through revenues decreased by approximately $13 million, primarily driven by lower throughput volumes from severe winter weather during the first quarter as John described, resulting in segment revenue changes as follows: processing revenues decreased by approximately $7 million, and gathering revenues decreased by approximately $6 million. Total cost and expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization, pass-through costs and net of our proportional share of LM4 earnings decreased by approximately $7 million, primarily from lower third-party processing fees and lower G&A allocations under our omnibus and employee secondment agreements, resulting in adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2025 of $292 million.

總收入（不含轉嫁收入）減少約1,300萬美元，主要原因是如John所述，第一季嚴寒天氣導致吞吐量下降，導致各部門收入變化如下：加工收入減少約700萬美元，收款收入減少約600萬美元。總成本及費用（不包括折舊及攤銷、轉嫁成本以及扣除我們應佔LM4收益的比例）減少約700萬美元，主要原因是第三方加工費減少，以及根據綜合協議和員工借調協議分配的一般及行政費用減少，導致2025年第一季度調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）為2.92億美元。

Our gross adjusted EBITDA margin for the first quarter was maintained at approximately 80%, above our 75% target, highlighting our continued strong operating leverage. First quarter capital expenditures were approximately $50 million. And net interest, excluding amortization of deferred finance costs, was approximately $51 million, resulting in adjusted free cash flow of approximately $191 million. We had a drawn balance of $128 million on our revolving credit facility at quarter end.

我們第一季的調整後EBITDA毛利維持在約80%，高於我們75%的目標，凸顯了我們持續強勁的營運槓桿。第一季資本支出約5000萬美元。扣除遞延融資成本攤銷後的淨利息約為5,100萬美元，調整後自由現金流量約1.91億美元。季度末，我們的循環信貸額度已提取餘額為1.28億美元。

Turning to guidance. For the second quarter of 2025, we expect net income to be approximately $170 million to $180 million and adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $300 million to $310 million, reflecting higher volumes and revenues, partially offset by seasonally higher maintenance costs. We also expect CapEx to increase in the second and third quarters, consistent with seasonally higher activity levels.

展望業績指引。我們預計2025年第二季淨利潤約為1.7億至1.8億美元，調整後EBITDA約為3億至3.1億美元，這反映了銷售量和營收的成長，但部分抵銷了季節性維護成本的上升。我們也預計第二季和第三季的資本支出將有所增加，這與季節性活動水準的上升相一致。

For the full year 2025, we are reaffirming all previously announced guidance and expect net income of $715 million to $765 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1,235,000,000 to $1,285,000,000. With total expected capital expenditures of approximately $300 million, we expect to generate adjusted free cash flow of $735 million to $785 million. With distributions per Class A share targeted to grow at least 5% annually, we expect excess adjusted free cash flow of approximately $135 million after fully funding our targeted growing distributions.

對於2025年全年，我們重申所有先前公佈的業績指引，預計淨利潤為7.15億美元至7.65億美元，調整後息稅折舊攤銷前利潤（EBITDA）為12.35億美元至12.85億美元。預計總資本支出約3億美元，調整後自由現金流預計為7.35億美元至7.85億美元。 A類股每股分紅的目標是每年至少成長5%，在完全滿足我們成長分紅的目標後，我們預期超額調整後自由現金流約1.35億美元。

For the remainder of 2025, we expect growing adjusted EBITDA in each quarter, consistent with increasing volumes. As implied by the midpoints in our guidance, we anticipate adjusted EBITDA in the second half of the year to be approximately 11% higher relative to the first half.

在2025年剩餘時間裡，我們預計每季的調整後EBITDA都將隨著銷售量的成長而成長。正如我們指引中位數所暗示的那樣，我們預計下半年的調整後EBITDA將較上半年成長約11%。

In summary, we are very pleased to have delivered additional incremental return of capital to Hess Midstream shareholders and look forward to a visible trajectory of growth in our operational and financial metrics that underpin our unique and differentiated financial strategy with a focus on consistent and ongoing return of capital to our shareholders. This concludes my remarks. We'll be happy to answer any questions. I will now turn the call over to the operator.

總而言之，我們非常高興能夠為 Hess Midstream 股東帶來額外的增量資本回報，並期待我們的營運和財務指標呈現顯著的成長軌跡，這將鞏固我們獨特且差異化的財務策略，並專注於持續不斷地為股東帶來資本回報。我的發言到此結束。我們很樂意回答任何問題。現在我將把電話轉給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。

This is Eli Jossen on for Jeremy. Just wanted to start on the Bakken outlook in light of ongoing macroeconomic volatility. Can you just help frame some of the sensitivities for the business and how we should be monitoring those throughout the year, recognizing MVCs are likely playing a role here?

我是 Eli Jossen，取代 Jeremy 進行訪問。鑑於宏觀經濟持續波動，我想先談談巴肯礦的前景。您能否介紹一下業務的一些敏感因素，以及我們應該如何在全年監控這些因素，同時考慮 MVC 可能在其中發揮的作用？

Sure. Yes, I'll touch on it and then I can hand it over to Jonathan. Obviously, in the basin itself, it's very operator dependent. It's going to -- there's a lot of moving parts to the basin. There's a lot of different ways that the programs are being managed by the different operators. From Hess perspective, we've not really seen any change in activity. Hess just reaffirmed the plans to run four rigs for the rest of this year.

當然。是的，我會稍微談一下，然後就可以交給喬納森了。顯然，在油田本身，它非常依賴營運商。油田裡有很多活動部件。不同的營運商管理專案的方式有很多種。從赫斯的角度來看，我們並沒有看到任何活動變化。赫斯剛剛重申了今年剩餘時間運行四座鑽井平台的計畫。

We're well above MVC levels. And I would say that from a growth trajectory, we really haven't seen a step change in activity, and we're really not anticipating it in the near term. We do, as you mentioned, we do have MVCs that are established through 2027. We'll also be setting our '28 MVCs later in the fall and early next year. So again, that provides protections. But from our perspective, the activity is still there. And in fact, we're continuing to see the same level of activity in our third-party business as well. So both Hess and third parties remain fairly active. I don't know, Jonathan, if there was anything you wanted to add there.

我們的 MVC 水準遠高於這個水準。我想說，從成長軌跡來看，我們其實並沒有看到業務活動的階躍變化，而且我們短期內也不預期會出現這種情況。正如您所說，我們確實有一些 MVC 是到 2027 年才建立的。我們還將在秋季晚些時候和明年年初設定 2028 年的 MVC。所以，這再次提供了保護。但從我們的角度來看，業務活動仍然存在。事實上，我們的第三方業務也持續保持著同樣的活躍水準。所以 Hess 和第三方業務都保持相當活躍的狀態。 Jonathan，我不知道您是否還有什麼要補充的。

John, thanks. That was -- what I'd just add is, I think, as a reminder, that one of the hallmarks of Hess Midstream has really been our proven track record of stability and visibility even through volatile periods. That includes, of course, underpinning that is our contracts that have no direct commodity price exposure, that generate our toll boat type revenue include inflation escalators and our operating model, which gives us a 75% EBITDA margin.

約翰，謝謝。我想補充的是，Hess Midstream 的一大特點就是我們即使在動盪時期也保持良好的穩定性和透明度。當然，這包括我們那些不直接受大宗商品價格影響的合同，這些合同為我們帶來了類似收費船的收入，這些收入受通貨膨脹影響，而我們的運營模式也讓我們的 EBITDA 利潤率達到了 75%。

Remember, our CapEx spend is relatively low, so only $125 million of ongoing CapEx in our CapEx program. Of course, our low leverage at 3 times EBITDA, one of the lowest in the sector and no near-term maturities. And as John mentioned, of course, our MVCs set through 2027, which was set based on a 4-rig program. And our 5% targeted distribution growth could be delivered even at MVC levels. So we're well positioned for the growth, as John said. No change there. We're well positioned to capture that growth, but we're also well positioned for stability during a volatile period.

請記住，我們的資本支出相對較低，因此我們的資本支出計畫中只有1.25億美元的持續性資本支出。當然，我們的槓桿率低至EBITDA的3倍，是業界最低的槓桿率之一，而且沒有短期到期負債。正如John所提到的，我們的MVC設定到2027年，這是基於4鑽機計畫設定的。即使在MVC水準下，我們也能達到5%的目標分銷成長。因此，正如John所說，我們已為成長做好了充分的準備。這一點沒有變化。我們有能力抓住這種成長機會，同時也有能力在動盪時期保持穩定。

Got it. That's great color from both. And then I guess just thinking about the volumes in excess of the MVCs, just maybe the split there, third parties, where you see those volumes right now? And any color you can provide on performance against the MVCs would be great.

明白了。兩者的數據都很棒。然後我想，想想超過 MVC 的捲，也許是分割，第三方，您現在看到這些卷在哪裡？您能提供任何關於 MVC 性能的詳細資訊嗎？

Yes. And just as a reminder, the MVCs are set at approximately 80% of the nomination. So we're much closer to the nomination and continue to expect to see the volume growth over the longer term. As far as Hess versus third parties, we do expect, over the long term, third parties to represent approximately 10% of our total volume. So if Hess is continuing to grow by proxy, the third parties are growing essentially at the same rate since we kind of expect that to be in that 10% range.

是的。提醒一下，MVC 的設定約為提名量的 80%。因此，我們距離提名量已經很近了，並且預計長期來看銷量還會繼續成長。至於 Hess 與第三方的對比，我們預期長期來看，第三方的銷售量將占我們總銷售量的 10% 左右。因此，如果 Hess 繼續以代理方式成長，那麼第三方的成長速度基本上相同，因為我們預期其成長速度應該在 10% 左右。

We're constantly looking for opportunities to capture more volumes. I think with our strategic footprint, we're able to capture offset well pads that may be operated by others. Those are always things that enable us to actually bring additional volumes in the system. And in fact, in the first quarter, oil outpaced our gas slightly, and it was a result of those kind of offset well pads where we were actually able to capture third-party volumes that were recently brought on in the first quarter.

我們一直在尋找機會來獲取更多產量。我認為，憑藉我們的策略佈局，我們能夠獲取可能由他人營運的補償井場。這些始終使我們能夠為系統帶來更多產量。事實上，在第一季度，我們的石油產量略高於天然氣產量，這得益於這些補償井場，我們實際上能夠獲得第一季新引入的第三方產量。

So that's -- it's a nice way to kind of mitigate the portfolio of production that we've got between Hess and third parties, but Hess still represents the lion's share of our production.

所以，這是一種很好的方式來緩解我們在 Hess 和第三方之間的生產組合，但 Hess 仍然佔據我們生產的最大份額。

Naomi Marfatia, UBS.

瑞銀的 Naomi Marfatia。

My first question is on basin rig count. Hess has reaffirmed its 4-rig. But do you think the oil rig decline overall, given the current macro environment? So just kind of curious on your thoughts on how should we think about any rig reduction at this point. And if you could perhaps discuss how Hess rig levels are contemplated and has it changed 2025, 2026 to 2027 outlook at this point?

我的第一個問題是關於盆地鑽機數量。 Hess 重申了其 4 座鑽機的計劃。但考慮到當前的宏觀環境，您認為石油鑽機數量總體會下降嗎？所以，我很好奇您對於目前應該如何考慮減少鑽機數量的看法。能否請您討論一下 Hess 是如何規劃鑽機數量的，以及這是否影響了 2025 年、2026 年和 2027 年的前景？

Yes. I mean, I think as Hess has always done, and I think the midstream does it the same way is we look past short-term volatility, and we're looking for longer-term supply/demand. And we see the Bakken as a premier basin in the US that provides a lot of oil, both domestically and internationally. And so from our perspective, we're continuing to see the rig plan that we've got in place.

是的。我的意思是，我認為就像Hess一直以來所做的那樣，中游產業也是如此，我們關注的是短期波動，而不是長期的供需關係。我們認為巴肯盆地是美國最重要的盆地之一，為國內外提供了大量的石油。因此，從我們的角度來看，我們將繼續關注現有的鑽井計劃。

As we mentioned, both I mentioned and Jonathan mentioned about our MVCs, we have those protections in place through the contract structure, but we are continuing to expect at a relatively consistent activity level, continue to expect to see oil volumes continuing to grow and then obviously, gas volumes continuing to grow as well with slight increase in GOR.

正如我們所提到的，我和喬納森都提到了我們的 MVC，我們透過合約結構實施了這些保護措施，但我們仍然預計活動水平會保持相對穩定，石油產量將繼續增長，然後顯然天然氣產量也會繼續增長，GOR 也會略有增加。

So overall, I think we're feeling pretty good about the activity. There's obviously some uncertainty in the market right now. But from our perspective, we're seeing stability, both for the Hess-operated production but also the third parties that we're supporting. We're continuing to see approximately the same level of activity going on. The basin rig count floats around quite a lot. It can depend on maintenance activities. It can depend on rig moves. So I wouldn't necessarily, in the short term, read too much into that, but just keep looking at the longer term, and that's kind of how we're looking at it.

所以總的來說，我認為我們對目前的活動感覺相當不錯。目前市場顯然存在一些不確定性。但從我們的角度來看，我們看到的是穩定的，無論是Hess營運的生產，還是我們支持的第三方。我們繼續看到大致相同的活動水平。盆地鑽機數量波動很大。它可能取決於維護活動。也可能取決於鑽孔機的移動。因此，我不一定會從短期來看過度解讀，而是繼續著眼於長期，這就是我們目前的看法。

Yes. And I would just highlight, just really underpinning what John said is that we did reaffirm all of our guidance for 2025. And of course, that also means we're also reaffirming our forward guidance in terms of growth to '26 and '27, which is all underpinned by the MVCs, which is, again, as I said, can support our 5% targeted distribution growth.

是的。我想強調的是，真正支撐約翰所說的話的是，我們確實重申了對2025年的所有指導。當然，這也意味著我們也重申了對2026年和2027年成長的前瞻性指引，這一切都以MVC為基礎，正如我之前所說，MVC可以支援我們5%的目標分銷成長。

That's helpful. Maybe another one on buybacks and secondaries. We saw a buyback in January, which was a 4Q push. And I've not heard about any additional buybacks for this quarter. So kind of just curious if there was any change in cadence as it relates to buybacks or secondaries now that GIP is less than 10% of Hess.

這很有幫助。或許可以再問一個關於回購和二級市場的問題。我們在一月份看到了一次回購，這是第四季的推動。我還沒聽說本季有任何額外的回購。所以，我很好奇，既然GIP現在不到Hess的10%，那麼回購或二級市場的節奏是否有任何變化。

Sure, yes. In terms of -- let me hit secondaries first. In terms of secondaries, as we've always said, there's no plan for secondaries. Those are investor demand-driven. To the extent that investors -- there's demand for secondary GIP, we'll evaluate that demand relative to their own disciplined view of value. And then if there is a match, then obviously, they would execute a secondary, but there's no specific plan or cadence for those.

當然，是的。至於──讓我先談談二級市場。就二級市場而言，正如我們一直所說，目前沒有二級市場計劃。這些是由投資者需求所驅動的。如果投資人對二級市場GIP有需求，我們會根據他們自身嚴謹的價值觀念來評估這種需求。如果配對成功，他們顯然會進行二級市場發行，但目前還沒有具體的計劃或節奏。

In terms of the repurchases, as we announced in January, we have more than, and as I said in my remarks, more than $1.25 billion of financial flexibility through 2027 and expect to do multiple repurchases a year as we've done in the past. There's no change to that guidance.

關於回購，正如我們在一月份宣布的那樣，到2027年，我們擁有超過12.5億美元的財務靈活性，正如我在之前的演講中所說，並且預計每年都會進行多次回購，就像我們過去所做的那樣。這一預期沒有改變。

Over the past couple of years, we have done about $100 million a quarter generally, but that's not necessarily set in stone. Really, that may vary from time to time, but no change in terms of multiple repurchases per year. And we expect to continue to do that through the rest of this year going forward.

過去幾年，我們一般每季回購約1億美元，但這並非一成不變。實際上，回購規模可能會不時變化，但每年多次回購的規模不會改變。我們預計今年剩餘時間將繼續維持這一水準。

Praneeth Satish, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的 Praneeth Satish。

So Q1, the gas processing volumes were 424 MMcf per day versus the guidance of 455 to 465 due to the weather challenges in January. Can you maybe just share where processing volumes are at currently into April? Have volumes kind of recovered into the range that you're forecasting for the year of 455 to 465? Just trying to understand the cadence.

第一季度，由於一月份天氣原因，天然氣處理量為每天4.24億立方英尺，而指導值為4.55億立方英尺至4.65億立方英尺。能否分享一下目前四月的處理量狀況？處理量是否已恢復到您預測的全年4.55億立方英尺至4.65億立方英尺的範圍內？只是想了解這個節奏。

Yes. I mean, I think the way to look at the volumes, and yes, January and February were very difficult weather challenges. Two things were occurring in that period of time. And we kind of anticipated this in late January, that this was going to be something that was going to affect first quarter performance.

是的。我的意思是，我認為從銷售來看，1月和2月確實面臨非常嚴峻的天氣挑戰。那段時間發生了兩件事。我們在1月底就預料到了這一點，認為這會影響第一季的業績。

Temperatures were lower for longer. They didn't hit those extreme temperatures that we've seen in the past, but they were sub-zero, minus 20, minus 30 degrees, but the wind played a significant impact in the weather. And that had a direct impact on Hess volumes and ultimately, the throughputs that came through our system.

氣溫持續較低，持續時間較長。雖然沒有達到我們過去經歷過的極端氣溫，但氣溫也降到了零下、零下20度、零下30度，而且風力也對天氣產生了很大影響。這直接影響了赫斯的產量，並最終影響了我們系統的吞吐量。

As far as what we're seeing now, we've seen a very strong recovery. And I think you can, without giving specific second quarter guidance, you kind of know what our reaffirmed guidance is for 2025. You look at where we exited in '24, and you kind of see a trajectory there where there's a nice smooth transition into Q2. So we're feeling really good about coming out of March really strong.

就我們目前所見，我們已經看到了非常強勁的復甦。我想，即使不給出具體的第二季業績指引，大家也應該知道我們對2025年重申的業績指引是什麼。回顧我們在2024年的業績，我們可以看到一個軌跡，那就是順利過渡到第二季。因此，我們對3月份的強勁表現感到非常滿意。

I think the team up in North Dakota has done a great job, both on the upstream and the midstream side to manage that. And well performance has been strong, well delivery has been strong. So overall, I think we're extremely optimistic about the volumes coming into the system and continuing the trajectory that we'll meet our guidance for the year.

我認為北達科他州的團隊在上游和中游方面都做得非常出色。油井表現強勁，油井交付也十分優異。因此，總的來說，我認為我們對進入系統的產量以及未來實現年度目標的軌跡非常樂觀。

Got it. And then secondly, I just wanted to -- I know this isn't the kind of the base case now, but I'm just trying to understand at what oil price would Hess consider shifting down to a three-rig program? It doesn't seem like that's the case, but at the same time, we are seeing oil prices continue to weaken and OPEC taking action here. So just trying to understand how much cushion there is on that 4-rig count.

明白了。其次，我想——我知道現在的情況並非基本情況，但我想知道，在什麼油價下，Hess會考慮將鑽井數量降至三個？看起來似乎並非如此，但同時，我們看到油價持續走弱，OPEC也在採取行動。所以，我想了解一下，在四個鑽井數量上，Hess的緩衝空間有多大。

Yes. I mean, I think maybe I'll hit it and then Jonathan could add any additional context. From our perspective, we're looking past the short-term volatility. And I think Hess has done that over the long term. I mean, Hess Midstream obviously ready to prepare in any kind of extreme price environments. But from our perspective, we're trying to really look through the short-term price volatility.

是的。我想也許我會先說一下，然後喬納森可以補充一些背景資訊。從我們的角度來看，我們正在忽略短期價格波動。我認為Hess在長期來看已經做到了這一點。我的意思是，Hess Midstream顯然已經做好了應對任何極端價格環境的準備。但從我們的角度來看，我們正在努力真正忽略短期價格波動。

And again, we do see there being need for the production. We're seeing activity levels remain relatively consistent in the basin. There are some fluctuations for smaller operators. But as we talk to Hess and as we anticipate the development, the economics of these wells just keep getting better, and we're -- Hess is drilling 3- and 4-mile laterals. It's brought on its first two 4-mile laterals. They're very, very strong producing wells.

再次強調，我們確實看到了生產需求。我們看到盆地的作業水準保持相對穩定。小型業者的產量會有一些波動。但隨著我們與Hess的溝通以及我們對開發的預期，這些油井的經濟效益正在持續改善。 Hess正在鑽探3英里和4英里的水平井。它已經鑽探了首批兩口4英里的水平井。它們是產量非常非常強勁的井。

These lower the breakevens for both 3- and 4-mile wells. So when you start talking about some of the price sensitivity, the ability to execute those efficient longer laterals are lowering that breakeven, which takes some of the relief, some of the pressure off of the price. And again, I think both Hess and Hess Midstream look past short-term volatility to try and maintain that consistent activity level. I don't know, Jonathan, if there's anything else you wanted to add.

這些措施降低了3英里和4英里油井的損益平衡點。所以，當你談到價格敏感度時，實施這些高效的長距離水平井的能力正在降低盈虧平衡點，從而減輕了一些價格壓力。再說一次，我認為Hess和Hess Midstream都忽略了短期波動，試圖維持穩定的活動量。 Jonathan，我不知道你還有什麼想補充的。

No, that was great. I think as you said, we're positioned for growth. There's no change right now and Hess continue to be a firm four rigs, as John said, and all the factors you said. And then as I highlighted earlier, we also have a proven track record of getting through volatile periods as well. So nothing to add.

不，那太好了。正如您所說，我們已做好增長的準備。目前沒有任何變化，正如約翰所說，Hess 繼續保持穩固的四鑽機供應，以及您提到的所有因素。然後，正如我之前強調的，我們也擁有成功度過動盪時期的良好記錄。所以沒什麼需要補充的。

Doug Irwin, Citi.

花旗銀行的道格‧歐文 (Doug Irwin)。

Maybe just one more macro question for the Bakken just in the context of rising GORs. I realize it's still early days and you're focused on the long term here. But just curious if you have a view on what gas growth would look like in the basin, a scenario where you're potentially seeing flat crude production near term.

也許我只想再問一個關於巴肯盆地宏觀問題，就氣油比（GOR）上升的情況而言。我知道現在還為時過早，您關注的是長期發展。但我很好奇，您是否對該盆地的天然氣成長前景有何看法？在這種情況下，原油產量短期內可能會持平。

Yes. I mean, I think the -- when you talk -- relates to the North Dakota pipeline, Justin Kringstad kind of often talks about flatter oil but growing gas. We do see that in our production. I mean, when you look at Hess, we do anticipate oil growth so it's a little bit different than the basin. But on the GOR side, the question you asked about GORs, we do anticipate GORs to increase over time as those wells mature and as the kind of gas makes its way through the production system.

是的。我的意思是，我認為——當你談到——與北達科他州輸油管有關時，賈斯汀·克林斯塔德經常談到石油產量趨於平穩但天然氣產量卻在增長。我們確實在生產中看到了這一點。我的意思是，當你關注赫斯時，我們確實預計石油產量會增加，所以它與盆地的情況略有不同。但就氣油比（GOR）而言，你提到的氣油比（GOR）問題，我們確實預計隨著這些油井的成熟以及天然氣進入生產系統，氣油比（GOR）會隨著時間的推移而增加。

So from our perspective, I think going from about 3, 3.5 Bcf of total gas, growing to the 5 to 6 Bcf of gas in the basin for the macro, which, again, is coming from the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, we see a similar trajectory as it relates to gas growth versus oil. So as the wells mature, we do anticipate GORs increase over time. This is all predicted and something that we've been talking about for quite some time. So we do expect gas volumes to continue to increase over time.

因此，從我們的角度來看，我認為從大約30億至35億立方英尺的天然氣總量，到盆地宏觀層面的50億至60億立方英尺的天然氣（這部分天然氣來自北達科他州管道管理局），我們看到天然氣和石油的成長軌跡類似。因此，隨著油井的成熟，我們預期氣油比（GOR）會隨著時間的推移而增加。這都是預測，也是我們討論過一段時間的事。因此，我們確實預期天然氣產量會隨著時間的推移而持續成長。

Got it. That's helpful. And then a follow-up just on capital allocation. Can you maybe remind us how much of that $1.25 billion of flexibility you talked about is driven by leverage capacity versus excess cash flow? And I think in the past, you've shown at least a bit of an appetite to temporarily move above 3 times leverage to buy back shares. Just curious how you're thinking about that target today in the context of capital allocation.

明白了。這很有幫助。接下來是關於資本配置的後續問題。您能否提醒我們，您提到的12.5億美元的彈性中，有多少是由槓桿率而非過剩現金流驅動的？我認為過去您至少表現出了一些暫時將槓桿率提高到3倍以上以回購股票的興趣。我很好奇您現在在資本配置的背景下是如何看待這個目標的。

Sure. So in terms of the $1.25 billion, it's about half. We've talked about our leverage falling below 2.5 times by the end of 2026 and then through 2027, that gives you about half a turn. So if you work out the growth on our EBITDA based on the guidance we've given through -- trajectory through 2027, you can get about half of the $1.25 billion. And then as our free cash flow grows quicker than our 5% target growth, that also gives us excess free cash flow, and that gives you about the other half. So about half in terms of leverage capacity and the other half in terms of cash.

當然。所以就12.5億美元來說，大約是一半。我們先前提到，到2026年底，我們的槓桿率將降至2.5倍以下，到2027年，也就是大約一半。所以，如果根據我們給出的2027年發展軌跡，計算出EBITDA的成長，大約可以得到12.5億美元中的一半。然後，隨著我們的自由現金流成長速度超過5%的目標成長速度，我們也會獲得超額自由現金流，也就是大約另一半。所以，大約一半是槓桿率，另一半是現金。

John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的約翰·麥凱。

Two quick ones for me. Just first, you mentioned the increasing 4-mile laterals that Hess, as that becomes kind of more of the overall well mix, does that change the CapEx intensity for HESM going forward if we think about CapEx per incremental barrel or something like that?

我快速問兩個問題。首先，您提到了 Hess 不斷增加的 4 英里水平井，隨著這在整體油井組合中佔據越來越重要的地位，如果我們考慮每桶增量油井的資本支出或類似的因素，這是否會改變 HESM 未來的資本支出強度？

No, not particularly. Most of the well pad locations, the surface locations are generally set. We are still building some greenfield sites. But I would say, generally speaking, the 3- and 4-mile laterals get placed close to the same approximate location as the 2-mile laterals were. What it ends up doing is it ends up making some of those areas that were a little more marginal, a little more economic. So it may shift the sequence of when wells are drilled.

不，不是特別。大多數井場的位置，也就是地面的位置，通常都是固定的。我們仍在建造一些綠地。但我想說，一般來說，3英里和4英里長的水平井的配置位置與2英里長的水平井的佈置位置大致相同。最終的效果是，它會讓一些原本比較邊緣的區域變得更經濟。所以，這可能會改變鑽井的順序。

But as Jonathan mentioned, we're in that $100 million to $125 million of ongoing capital that's related to well tie-ins and we really don't anticipate that being materially different as a result of the longer lateral drilling by Hess.

但正如喬納森所提到的那樣，我們目前有 1 億至 1.25 億美元的持續資本用於油井連接，我們確實不認為赫斯的更長橫向鑽井會帶來實質性的差異。

That's helpful. Second quick one, just going to gas growth in the basin and egress. There's a new residue pipeline kind of proposed out there. Curious, just any thoughts you can share on that? And then maybe just broadly kind of the state of egress across the basin overall on the gas side.

這很有幫助。第二個快速問題，關於盆地天然氣的成長和出口。目前有一條新的殘餘物管道正在規劃中。好奇，您對此有什麼看法？然後，大概可以概括一下整個盆地天然氣出口的整體狀況。

Sure. And when you're talking about the -- are you talking about the Bison takeaway systems?

當然。您說的是…您指的是 Bison 外送系統嗎？

No, think about the intensity one but curious, Bison's coming sooner, I guess.

不，想想強度，但好奇的是，我猜野牛來得更快。

Yes. I think Bison is a bit more kind of focused on the residue gas export. I think overall, we obviously work very closely with Hess to make sure that flow assurance is there. We've got all the commitments we need to make sure that we've got plenty of capacity out of the basin.

是的。我認為Bison更專注於殘餘氣的出口。總的來說，我們顯然與Hess密切合作，以確保流量保障。我們已獲得所有必要的承諾，以確保我們在該盆地擁有充足的產能。

I do think as gas continues to grow, I think others that maybe haven't been as focused on flow assurance, there could be some additional challenges for them. But as we think about Hess's and Hess Midstream's volumes, we feel like we've got that well taken care of through the export agreements we've got in place. And for the new expansions that are in place, Bison as an example, Hess is a shipper on the Bison express system, and that just adds some additional flexibility to Northern Border and the ONEOK system.

我確實認為，隨著天然氣產量的持續增長，其他一些可能不太注重流量保障的公司可能會面臨一些額外的挑戰。但考慮到Hess和Hess Midstream的產量，我們覺得透過現有的出口協議，我們已經很好地解決了這個問題。至於正在進行的新擴張，以Bison為例，Hess是Bison快遞系統的承運商，這為Northern Border和ONEOK系統增加了一些額外的靈活性。

And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. As such, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

我現在沒有其他問題了。感謝您的參與。今天的演講到此結束。現在您可以斷開連接，祝您有美好的一天。