Hess Midstream LP (HESM) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the fourth-quarter 2025 Hess Midstream conference call. My name is Gigi, and I'll be your operator for today. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

各位女士、先生，大家好，歡迎參加 Hess Midstream 2025 年第四季電話會議。我叫吉吉，今天由我來為您接聽電話。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音，以便回放。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Gordon, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁詹妮弗·戈登。請繼續。

Thank you, Gigi. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in our fourth-quarter earnings conference call. Our earnings release was issued this morning and appears on our website www.hessmidstream.com.

謝謝你，吉吉。各位早安，感謝各位參加我們第四季財報電話會議。我們的獲利報告已於今天上午發布，並已發佈在我們的網站 www.hessmidstream.com 上。

Today's conference call contains projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in such statements. These risks include those set forth in the Risk Factors section of Hess Midstream's filings with the SEC.

今天的電話會議包含聯邦證券法意義上的預測和其他前瞻性陳述。這些聲明存在已知和未知的風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與此類聲明中明示或暗示的結果有所不同。這些風險包括 Hess Midstream 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中「風險因素」部分列出的風險。

Also, on today's conference call, we may discuss certain GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the earnings release.

此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們可能會討論一些GAAP財務指標。有關這些非GAAP財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標之間差異的調節表，請參閱獲利報告。

With me today are Jonathan Stein, Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Chadwick, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Jonathan Stein.

今天陪同我的是執行長喬納森·斯坦和財務長麥克·查德威克。現在我將把電話交給喬納森·斯坦。

Thanks, Jennifer. Welcome, everyone, to our fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. Today, I will review our 2025 performance, our 2026 and long-term guidance issued in December, and then I'll hand the call over to Mike to review our financials. In 2025, we continued our record of strong performance execution, completing our multiyear projects on time and on budget and strategically growing our gas gathering and compression system.

謝謝你，珍妮弗。歡迎各位參加我們2025年第四季財報電話會議。今天，我將回顧我們 2025 年的業績、2026 年的業績以及 12 月發布的長期業績指引，然後我將把電話交給 Mike，讓他回顧我們的財務狀況。2025年，我們繼續保持強勁的業績執行力，按時按預算完成了多年期項目，並策略性地發展了天然氣收集和壓縮系統。

With the system now substantially built, our projected capital spending will be significantly lower. For 2026, we expect to spend approximately $150 million, a 40% reduction in capital spending relative to 2025. We expect our capital spend to decrease even further in 2027 and 2028 to less than $75 million per year. This lower capital highlights our ability to leverage our historical investments to drive significant free cash flow generation that supports our unique combination of shareholder returns and balance sheet strength through a combination of targeted 5% distribution per Class A share growth through 2028, potential incremental share repurchases, and debt repayment.

隨著系統基本上建成，我們預期的資本支出將大幅降低。預計 2026 年的支出約為 1.5 億美元，比 2025 年的資本支出減少 40%。我們預計 2027 年和 2028 年的資本支出將進一步減少至每年不到 7,500 萬美元。較低的資本額凸顯了我們利用歷史投資來推動大量自由現金流產生的能力，從而支持我們獨特的股東回報和資產負債表實力組合，具體措施包括：到 2028 年實現 A 類股每股 5% 的目標分紅增長、潛在的增量股票回購以及償還債務。

Now turning to Hess Midstream results. Fourth-quarter volumes were generally flat year-over-year, but down relative to the third quarter due to severe weather through the month of December. Gas processing volumes averaged 444 million cubic feet per day, crude terminaling volumes averaged 122,000 barrels of oil per day and water gathering volumes averaged 124,000 barrels of water per day.

現在來看看赫斯中游公司的業績。第四季銷售量與去年同期基本持平，但與第三季相比有所下降，原因是12月份天氣惡劣。天然氣處理量平均每天 4.44 億立方英尺，原油碼頭處理量平均每天 12.2 萬桶原油，集水量平均每天 12.4 萬桶水。

For full-year 2025, Hess Midstream's gas processing volumes averaged 445 million cubic feet per day, crude terminaling volumes averaged 129,000 barrels of oil per day, and water gathering volumes averaged 131,000 barrels of water per day, resulting in full-year adjusted EBITDA of $1.238 billion. Looking forward, for the first quarter of 2026, we expect lower volumes across our systems as severe winter weather has continued through January and into the start of February, together with normal contingencies for the rest of the winter period. On a full-year basis, we are reiterating the volume guidance that we gave in December for the full year of 2026 and expect growth in volumes across our systems through the rest of the year, consistent with historical seasonal volume expectations.

2025 年全年，赫斯中游公司天然氣日均處理量為 4.45 億立方英尺，原油碼頭日均處理量為 12.9 萬桶，水收集日均處理量為 13.1 萬桶，全年調整後 EBITDA 為 12.38 億美元。展望未來，由於嚴寒的冬季天氣持續到 1 月和 2 月初，加上冬季剩餘時間的正常應急措施，我們預計 2026 年第一季我們各個系統的吞吐量將有所下降。從全年來看，我們重申了我們在 12 月給出的 2026 年全年銷售預期，並預計在今年剩餘時間內，我們各個系統的銷量將持續增長，與歷史季節性銷售預期一致。

With revenues that are approximately 95% protected by MVCs on a full-year basis, we anticipate net income and adjusted EBITDA to be higher through the rest of 2026 relative to our first quarter guidance. Looking beyond 2026, leveraging our historical investment in infrastructure and consistent with Chevron's optimized development program for the Bakken, we continue to expect 5% annualized net income and adjusted EBITDA growth and approximately 10% annualized adjusted free cash flow growth through 2028 that is supported by gas volume growth, contracted annual inflation tariff rate adjustments, and lower operating and capital spend.

由於全年約 95% 的收入受到 MVC 的保護，我們預計 2026 年剩餘時間的淨收入和調整後 EBITDA 將高於我們第一季的預期。展望 2026 年以後，利用我們過去在基礎設施方面的投資，並根據雪佛龍針對巴肯油田的優化開發計劃，我們繼續預計到 2028 年，淨收入和調整後 EBITDA 將實現 5% 的年化增長，調整後自由現金流將實現約 10% 的年化增長，這得益於年化成本的增長，這得益於成本通膨、資本增長，這得益於年化和經濟支出的增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年費的增長，這得益於年化資本的增長，這得益於年化資本增長，這得益於年費增長，這得益於年化資本的增長，這得益於年化資本的增長，這得益於年化成本的增長，這得益於年化資本增長，這要約

In summary, with adjusted EBITDA growth and a moderating capital program, we expect significant adjusted free cash flow generation in 2026 of $850 million to $900 million, reflecting 12% growth over 2025 at the midpoint, followed by annualized growth of approximately 10% through 2028, which we expect to use for incremental shareholder returns and debt repayment above and beyond our 5% targeted distribution growth that can be delivered even at already set MVC levels.

總之，隨著調整後 EBITDA 的成長和資本計畫的放緩，我們預計 2026 年將產生 8.5 億美元至 9 億美元的顯著調整後自由現金流，較 2025 年增長 12%（取中間值），隨後到 2028 年將保持約 10% 的現金增長率的目標分紅成長，即使在已設定的 MVC 水準下也能實現。

With that, I'll hand the call over to Mike to review our financial performance for the fourth quarter and guidance.

接下來，我將把電話交給麥克，讓他回顧我們第四季的財務表現和績效指引。

Thanks, Jonathan, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will summarize our financial highlights for 2025, provide details on our first-quarter financial guidance and outlook through 2028, which we issued in December.

謝謝你，喬納森，大家早安。今天，我將總結我們 2025 年的財務亮點，詳細介紹我們在 12 月發布的第一季財務指導和到 2028 年的展望。

For 2025, we delivered strong results with full-year net income of approximately $685 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.238 billion. This adjusted EBITDA represents a growth of approximately 9% from 2024. For the fourth quarter, net income was $168 million compared to approximately $176 million in the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $309 million compared with approximately $321 million in the third quarter.

2025 年，我們取得了強勁的業績，全年淨收入約為 6.85 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 12.38 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 比 2024 年成長約 9%。第四季淨收入為 1.68 億美元，而第三季約為 1.76 億美元。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 3.09 億美元，而第三季約為 3.21 億美元。

The decrease is primarily due to lower revenues caused by severe winter weather followed by a slow recovery through December, as well as lower interruptible third-party volumes and annual maintenance at LM4. Total revenues excluding pass-through revenues decreased by approximately $19 million resulting in segment revenue changes as follows: Gathering revenues decreased by approximately $11 million, processing revenues decreased by approximately $6 million, and terminaling revenues decreased by approximately $2 million.

下降的主要原因是嚴寒的冬季天氣導致收入減少，隨後在 12 月緩慢復甦，以及可中斷的第三方業務量減少和 LM4 的年度維護。不包括轉嫁收入的總收入減少了約 1,900 萬美元，導致各業務部門收入變化如下：收集收入減少了約 1,100 萬美元，加工收入減少了約 600 萬美元，終端收入減少了約 200 萬美元。

Total cost and expenses excluding depreciation and amortization, pass-through costs, and net of our proportional share of LM4 earnings decreased by approximately $7 million, primarily from lower allocations under our omnibus and employee secondment agreements, lower seasonable maintenance activity, partially offset by higher processing fees, resulting in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of $309 million. Our gross adjusted EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter was maintained at approximately 83%, above our 75% target, highlighting our continued strong operating leverage. Fourth-quarter capital expenditures were approximately $47 million, marking lower fourth-quarter activity as well as the completion of our compression buildout. And net interest, excluding amortization of deferred finance costs, was approximately $54 million, resulting in adjusted free cash flow of approximately $208 million. We had a drawn balance of $338 million on our revolving credit facility at year-end.

不包括折舊和攤銷、轉嫁成本以及我們按比例應得的 LM4 收益淨額，總成本和費用減少了約 700 萬美元，主要原因是根據我們的綜合協議和員工借調協議分配的款項減少，季節性維護活動減少，部分被更高的手續費所抵消，導致第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.09 億美元。第四季調整後 EBITDA 毛利率維持在 83% 左右，高於我們 75% 的目標，凸顯了我們持續強勁的營運槓桿作用。第四季資本支出約為 4,700 萬美元，標誌著第四季度業務活動減少，同時也標誌著壓縮設施建設的完成。淨利息（不含遞延融資成本攤提）約為 5,400 萬美元，由此產生的調整後自由現金流約為 2.08 億美元。截至年底，我們的循環信貸額度已提取餘額為 3.38 億美元。

For the first quarter of 2026, we expect net income to be approximately $150 million to $160 million and adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $295 million to $305 million including the impact of severe winter weather that continued through January and the potential for additional winter weather events through the quarter. We expect adjusted free cash flow in the first quarter of 2026 to increase relative to the fourth quarter of 2025, as capital expenditures in the first quarter are projected to be lower than the fourth quarter.

我們預計 2026 年第一季淨收入約為 1.5 億美元至 1.6 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 約為 2.95 億美元至 3.05 億美元，其中包括持續到 1 月份的嚴重冬季天氣的影響以及該季度可能出現的其他冬季天氣事件。我們預計 2026 年第一季的調整後自由現金流將比 2025 年第四季增加，因為預計第一季的資本支出將低於第四季。

Turning to our rates for 2026 and beyond. The majority of our systems that represent approximately 85% of our revenues are fixed fee with rates increasing each year based on an inflation escalator capped at 3%. For our terminaling systems, water gathering systems and a gas gathering subsystem that represents approximately 15% of our revenues, we continue to reset our rates through our annual rate redetermination process through to 2033. In general, tariff rates across most of our systems are higher in 2026 than 2025 rates.

接下來我們來看看2026年及以後的費率。我們大部分系統（約占我們收入的 85%）採用固定收費模式，費率每年根據通貨膨脹率遞增，上限為 3%。對於我們的碼頭系統、集水系統和天然氣收集子系統（約占我們收入的 15%），我們將繼續透過年度費率重新確定流程來調整費率，直至 2033 年。整體而言，我們大多數系統的 2026 年關稅費率將高於 2025 年的費率。

For the full-year 2026, we continue to expect net income of between $650 million and $700 million and adjusted EBITDA of between $1.225 billion and $1.275 billion in 2026, approximately flat at the midpoint compared with 2025. As Jonathan mentioned, approximately 95% of our revenues are covered by minimum volume commitments in 2026. We continue to target a gross adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 75% in 2026 with total expected capital expenditures of approximately $150 million.

對於 2026 年全年，我們仍然預期淨收入在 6.5 億美元至 7 億美元之間，調整後 EBITDA 在 12.25 億美元至 12.75 億美元之間，與 2025 年的中點值大致持平。正如喬納森所提到的，我們約 95% 的收入都由 2026 年的最低銷售承諾所保障。我們繼續以 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 毛利率約為 75% 為目標，預計總資本支出約為 1.5 億美元。

We expect to generate adjusted free cash flow of between $850 million and $900 million and excess adjusted free cash flow of approximately $210 million after fully funding our targeted 5% annual distribution growth which we expect to use for incremental shareholder returns and debt repayment.

我們預計調整後自由現金流將達到 8.5 億美元至 9 億美元，在完全滿足 5% 的年度分紅增長目標後，還將產生約 2.1 億美元的超額調整後自由現金流，我們計劃將這些超額現金流用於增加股東回報和償還債務。

Looking beyond 2026, we have visible drivers, including gas volume growth that continue to make up 75% of our revenues, inflation escalators, and lower capital spend that support the guidance we issued through 2028 that results in annualized adjusted free cash flow growth of approximately 10% through 2028 from 2026 levels generating approximately $1 billion of financial flexibility to continue return of capital to shareholders and pay down debt.

展望 2026 年以後，我們有明顯的驅動因素，包括天然氣銷售增長（繼續占我們收入的 75%）、通貨膨脹加劇以及資本支出減少，這些都支持我們發布的到 2028 年的業績指引，預計到 2028 年，經調整的年化自由現金流將比 2026 年的靈活性水平增長約 10%，從而產生財政價值，從而產生財務價值的靈活性還可繼續向債務

This concludes my remarks. We'll be happy to answer any questions. I will now turn the call over to the operator.

我的發言到此結束。我們很樂意回答任何問題。現在我將把電話轉接給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Doug Irwin, Citi.

（操作說明）Doug Irwin，花旗銀行。

I'm just trying to start maybe with the balance sheet. You've made a few mentions year of debt repayment may be taking more of a priority this year. Historically, I know you've pointed to about 3 times leverage being the optimal level for Hess.

我只是想先從資產負債表著手。你曾多次提到，今年償還債務可能會成為你的首要任務。據我所知，你曾指出 Hess 的最佳槓桿率約為 3 倍。

I'm just curious, is that still the right way to think about it? Or are you may be targeting a lower level today? And if so, could you maybe just provide some more commentary on ground, maybe what drove that decision and then how that might impact capital allocation decisions here moving forward?

我只是好奇，這種思考方式現在還正確嗎？還是你今天的目標是降低目標水準？如果是這樣的話，您能否就此做一些更詳細的說明，例如是什麼促使您做出這個決定，以及這可能會如何影響我們未來的資本配置決策？

Can I take that one, Jonathan? So we plan to use a portion of our free future cash flow after distributions to pay down debt as the guidance in December indicated, and the conservative financial strategy we're following there is consistent with our volume profile and Chevron's target of 200,000 barrels of oil per day plateau production in the Bakken. So we'll still have a balanced strategy. So that includes the incremental return of capital beyond our 5% annual distribution growth and balance sheet strength.

喬納森，我可以選你嗎？因此，我們計劃將分紅後的部分未來自由現金流用於償還債務，正如 12 月的指導意見所表明的那樣。我們在此採取的保守財務策略與我們的產量概況以及雪佛龍在巴肯油田實現日產 20 萬桶石油的目標相一致。所以，我們還是會採取平衡的策略。因此，這包括超出我們 5% 年度分紅成長和資產負債表實力的額外資本回報。

So in terms of our 3 times leverage, so we will expect to naturally delever below the 3 times in the next few years. Our EBITDA will grow, but we won't be increasing the absolute level of debt. So with some portion of our free cash flow after distributions being used for debt repayment, we expect to delever below this level of 3%. As we said on our December guidance release, we're also funding incremental shareholder returns from free cash flow after distributions rather than leverage buybacks and so it's just a bit more of a conservative approach that we're following that is in line with our profile and Chevron's target of 200,000 barrels of oil per day plateau.

因此，就我們目前的 3 倍槓桿而言，我們預計在未來幾年內槓桿率將自然降至 3 倍以下。我們的 EBITDA 將會成長，但我們不會增加債務的絕對水準。因此，在分配後的部分自由現金流用於償還債務的情況下，我們預期槓桿率將低於 3%。正如我們在 12 月發布的業績指引中所說，我們也在利用分紅後的自由現金流來增加股東回報，而不是透過槓桿回購股票。因此，我們採取的是一種更保守的做法，這符合我們的經營理念以及雪佛龍公司日產 20 萬桶石油的目標。

Having said that, we've got significant free cash flow that we see being generated that will enable both the pay down of debt and further distributions back to shareholders.

話雖如此，我們預計會產生可觀的自由現金流，這既可以用於償還債務，也可以用於向股東進一步分配利潤。

I don't know, Jonathan, if you want to add anything there?

喬納森，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的？

No, that's great.

不，那太好了。

Understood. And then a follow-up maybe just on the third-party outlook. We've heard commentary from at least one big player in the Bakken, talking about scaling back activity in the current crude environment. Just curious what you see is the impact to SM there, if at all? And if you could maybe just provide a bit more commentary around what you're hearing from third-party customers in general.

明白了。然後或許可以就第三方視角進行後續探討。我們已經聽到巴肯油田至少一家大型企業發表評論，表示在當前的原油市場環境下，他們正在縮減生產活動。我只是好奇你認為這會對SM公司造成什麼影響？如果有影響的話？如果您能就您從第三方客戶那裡聽到的整體回饋再做一些評論，那就太好了。

And -- and then I guess tying on to that, I know you mentioned that the 200,000 barrels a equivalent day from Chevron, which they've kind of stood by. I guess, is there an environment where that outlook might be at risk in your view, just based on the discussions you've had with them?

然後——我想說的是，我知道你提到了雪佛龍每天20萬桶當量原油的產量，他們一直堅持這個產量。我想，根據你和他們的討論，你認為是否存在某種環境可能會危及這種觀點？

Sure. Okay. So on the third party, really no change to our outlook there, still expecting 10% on average across oil and gas, quarter-to-quarter, that could have some variability. If you go back to the third quarter of last year, we had probably higher. We did have higher third parties as there was maintenance on Northern Border, and we were able to provide additional optionality for third parties able to additional -- alternative routes to get to Northern border as well as optionality for other takeaways. So from time to time, we may see a little bit more, sometimes a little bit less. But on average, we expect to continue to see 10% third-party as part of our volumes, and no change to that going forward.

當然。好的。所以，關於第三方，我們的展望並沒有改變，仍然預期石油和天然氣產業平均每季成長 10%，但可能會有一些波動。如果回顧去年第三季度，我們的數據可能會更高。由於北部邊境正在進行維護，我們確實迎來了更多第三方，並且我們能夠為能夠前往北部邊境的第三方提供更多選擇——替代路線以及其他外賣選項。所以，有時候我們可能會看到多一些，有時候又會看到少一些。但平均而言，我們預期第三方訂單量將持續占我們訂單量的 10%，未來這一比例不會改變。

In terms of the 200,000, I mean, no change there. You just heard Chevron recently just Friday on their call, reiterating the 200,000 barrel a day target with continued optimization program. And I think it's important to highlight the guidance that we've given out in terms of the volume guidance and the EBITDA growth through 2028 as well as reduced capital spending with that supports our free cash flow growth over this period is also consistent with that plan. So no change there expected, and we're continuing to work with Chevron to work through the optimized develop program and optimize our volumes as well.

至於那20萬，我的意思是，那方面沒有任何變化。你剛才也聽到了雪佛龍公司上週五在電話會議上重申的每日 20 萬桶的目標，並表示將繼續推進優化計畫。我認為有必要強調，我們已就銷量指引和到 2028 年的 EBITDA 增長以及減少資本支出給出的指引，這支持了我們在此期間的自由現金流增長，也與該計劃相一致。因此，預計不會有任何變化，我們將繼續與雪佛龍合作，推動優化開發計劃，並優化我們的產量。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan Securities.

Jeremy Tonet，摩根大通證券。

This is Eli on for Jeremy. Just wanted to get a sense of growth drivers further out in the forecast horizon in that 2028 timeframe. How much of the outlook is based on cost cutting? And how does that contribute to the growth outlook?

這是伊萊替傑里米上場。我只是想了解在 2028 年這個預測期內，更長遠的未來有哪些成長驅動因素。預測中有多少是基於削減成本的？這又將如何影響經濟成長前景呢？

Sure. Let me just start and say that as we look forward, right, as I just mentioned, the plan that we've given out of the guidance, which includes the EBITDA growth and net income growth as well as our free cash flow growth is consistent with the plan that Chevron laid out. That growth in terms of EBITDA is really driven by inflation escalators, a bit of growth in gas as well. And then the free cash flow growth is also increasing even more than that as a result in reduced capital as we go from our -- complete the infrastructure buildout and move to even a lower capital level going forward, so down to $150 million this year, 40% lower than $75 million in? '27, '28.

當然。首先我想說的是，展望未來，正如我剛才提到的，我們根據指導方針制定的計劃，包括 EBITDA 增長、淨收入增長以及自由現金流增長，與雪佛龍制定的計劃是一致的。EBITDA 的成長實際上是由通貨膨脹因素推動的，天然氣價格的成長也有一定程度的帶動。而且，由於我們完成了基礎設施建設，資本支出減少，自由現金流的成長也超過了這一水平，未來資本支出將進一步降低，今年將降至 1.5 億美元，比 7,500 萬美元減少了 40%。'27，'28。

So those are really the drivers of the growth. And I think it's important as we think about this long term and the business line going forward for Hess Midstream, we've gone through a period here of transition and gone through a period here of integration with Chevron. And while many things have changed and we've optimized our plan together with Chevron, I think it's also important to highlight, take a moment just to highlight the unique combination of elements that's still a part of our plan. That includes significant free cash flow generation, leveraging the historical spend with significant lot of capital that I just talked about that's driving that 10% free cash flow go through 2028.

所以這些才是真正的成長驅動因素。我認為，當我們考慮 Hess Midstream 的長期發展和未來的業務發展時，這一點很重要：我們已經經歷了一段過渡期，也經歷了一段與雪佛龍整合的時期。雖然很多事情都發生了變化，我們也與雪佛龍公司一起優化了我們的計劃，但我認為同樣重要的是要強調，花點時間來強調我們計劃中仍然存在的獨特要素組合。這包括產生可觀的自由現金流，利用我剛才提到的大量資本的歷史支出，從而推動到 2028 年實現 10% 的自由現金流增長。

We have distributions that have continued to target to grow at 5% per share annually, fully funded by free cash flow and able to achieve that growth EBITDA MVC levels. And we have significant free cash flow distribution -- free cash flow after distribution that supports, as Mike said, both incrementally shareholder returns and balance sheet strength. And all of this is consistent, as we said, with Chevron's development plan that targets 200,000 BOE per day with continued opportunities for our optimization as well as 95% MVC revenue protection this year in 2026 and 90% MVC revenue protection in 2027.

我們的分紅目標持續以每年每股 5% 的速度成長，完全由自由現金流提供資金，並能夠實現該成長的 EBITDA MVC 水準。我們有大量的自由現金流分配——分配後的自由現金流，正如麥克所說，這既能逐步提高股東回報，又能增強資產負債表的穩健性。正如我們所說，所有這些都與雪佛龍的發展計劃一致，該計劃的目標是每天生產 20 萬桶油當量，並持續提供優化機會，以及在 2026 年實現 95% 的 MVC 收入保障，在 2027 年實現 90% 的 MVC 收入保障。

So we've talked a lot about changes as a result of the transition. But I think it's important to highlight that we continue to have the element of visibility and consistency, the shareholder returns and balance sheet strength that have been and continue to be the hallmark of Hess Midstream and really a differentiated in the strategy. So when we talk about the long term for Hess Midstream, while things have changed, it's really a lot more of the same unique combination that has always been our hallmark.

所以我們討論了很多關於轉型帶來的改變。但我認為，值得強調的是，我們仍然保持著透明度和穩定性，股東回報和資產負債表的穩健性，這些一直是赫斯中游公司的標誌，也是我們策略中真正的差異化優勢。所以，當我們談到赫斯中游公司的長期發展時，雖然情況有所變化，但實際上仍然是我們一直以來引以為傲的獨特組合。

Got it. That's great color. And then maybe just to pick up on some of the remarks you made about CapEx just there. How low could we see CapEx actually be flexed? I think you've given some parameters around it, but just get a sense of how low that could get.

知道了。顏色真好看。然後，也許我想就您剛才提到的資本支出問題再補充一點。資本支出實際上能降低到什麼程度？我認為你已經給了一些參數，但還是想了解這個數值能降到多低。

Mike, do you want to start?

麥克，你想先開始嗎？

Yeah, sure. So in the first quarter, we're expecting CapEx, as I said in my remarks, to be lower than the fourth quarter. And we've guided $150 million for 2026 and $25 million of that is for completing the compression and gathering pipeline buildout. And then we've got about another $125 million for the gathering systems and well connects and maintenance. We've guided that in 2027 and 2028, we expect to be about $75 million, if not lower.

當然可以。正如我剛才所說，我們預計第一季的資本支出將低於第四季。我們預計 2026 年的投資金額將達到 1.5 億美元，其中 2,500 萬美元將用於完成壓縮和收集管道的建設。然後我們還有大約 1.25 億美元用於集輸系統、油井連接和維護。我們預計，2027 年和 2028 年的收入約為 7,500 萬美元，甚至可能更低。

And this is a trend that is following the reset that we said earlier about 2026, following the rigs coming down from four to three from Chevron. And it's consistent with that plan.

而這一趨勢與我們之前提到的 2026 年的調整相符，當時雪佛龍的鑽井平台數量從 4 個減少到 3 個。這與該計劃相符。

Jonathan, I don't know if you want to add any further color on that?

喬納森，我不知道你是否還想補充一些細節？

Yeah. The one thing I would just add is there's been a lot of discussion obviously, where as we've kind of gotten to the end here of our big buildout, we really spent years building out our gathering and compression system. And just a couple of things to highlight. First is our ability now to go to this lower CapEx level, really leveraging their start investment. First is a function of the partnership that we have, the tight integration that we have with Chevron that historically with has and now which everyone that allows us -- it has allowed us to optimize our upstream and midstream investments, so we don't overbuild and overinvest. And the result of that is one of the best EBITDA build multiples in the sector.

是的。我只想補充一點，顯然已經有很多討論了，因為我們的大型建設項目已經接近尾聲，我們花了數年時間才建成我們的集氣和壓縮系統。還有幾點要重點說明。首先，我們現在能夠將資本支出降低到這個較低的水平，真正利用他們的初始投資。首先，這得益於我們與雪佛龍的合作關係，我們與雪佛龍的緊密合作，這種合作在歷史上一直存在，現在也一直存在，這使我們能夠優化上游和中游投資，從而避免過度建設和過度投資。結果是，該公司擁有業內最佳的 EBITDA 成長倍數之一。

The second thing I would say is that as Chevron talked about the development plan and optimizing the plan, that is also driving, of course, lower CapEx for us. And one of the things, just as an example, as you heard Chevron talk about having increasing percentage of longer laterals, so if you think about that from our point of view, longer laterals not only make the wells more economic, so significantly increasing the breakeven, but also, in general, produce essentially the same volume, but with less wells, reducing our well connect capital requirement. So also a very positive effect there.

第二點我想說的是，就像雪佛龍公司所談到的發展計畫和優化計畫一樣，這當然也促使我們降低了資本支出。舉個例子，正如你聽到的雪佛龍公司正在討論增加長水平井的比例，從我們的角度來看，長水平井不僅使油井更具經濟效益，從而顯著提高盈虧平衡點，而且通常還能以更少的油井生產出基本相同的產量，從而降低我們的油井連接資本需求。所以這也產生了非常正面的影響。

So all that means that we can really continue to see this downtrend this year, we have a little bit left to do in terms of the pipeline build out at $150 million, still 40% less than last year. And then we're moving down to a much lower level of that less than $75 million on an ongoing basis as we really just have ongoing capital going forward to support the system and drive the significant free cash flow that comes out of this business model.

所以這一切都意味著我們今年可能會繼續看到這種下降趨勢，我們在管道建設方面還有一些工作要做，預算為 1.5 億美元，仍然比去年減少了 40%。然後，我們將持續將資金投入降低到低於 7500 萬美元的水平，因為我們確實需要持續的資金來支持該系統並推動這種商業模式產生的可觀自由現金流。

John Mackay, Goldman Sachs & Company.

約翰·麥凱，高盛公司。

I think a lot of them have been answered. I want to just zoom in a little bit more on the weather piece though. Is there any way you can give us a snapshot of what you're seeing on the ground right now? Particularly, are you seeing some of the issues we've seen in past years with power down, et cetera? Or once the weather starts to improve a little bit, once the temperature start to bridge a little bit, should we start to see production coming back online? Maybe just frame it for us relative to maybe some prior years.

我認為很多問題都已經得到了解答。我想再放大一下天氣部分。您能否簡要介紹一下目前在現場看到的情況？特別是，您是否遇到了我們過去幾年遇到的一些問題，例如斷電等等？或者，一旦天氣開始好轉，氣溫開始回升，我們是否應該看到生產恢復上線？或許可以把它和往年的情況連結起來看待。

Sure. Yeah, I don't think this is -- you think back a few years ago, we had the significant power lines down across the state and that really went on for the first half of the year. We're really just seeing significantly extreme cold weather, some snow, but really the cold which has an impact on our system across the board. And so particularly on the gas side. So that, I think, as we do start to see improving weather certainly, that would be helpful and that allows more activity to occur and also just begin the recovery in terms of getting more production online and making our system optimizing it back again.

當然。是的，我不認為這是——想想幾年前，我們州內很多輸電線路都倒塌了，這種情況持續了上半年。我們現在確實遇到了非常極端的寒冷天氣，雖然也下了一些雪，但真正對我們整個系統產生影響的是嚴寒天氣。尤其是在天然氣方面。所以，我認為，隨著天氣逐漸好轉，這肯定會有所幫助，這將使更多的活動得以進行，並開始恢復生產，使我們的系統重新優化。

So -- we do still have in our, as we mentioned, contingencies in the -- I'd say the weather has continued certainly all through the month of January and a bit here into February, just getting started. We have continued contingencies in our in our forecast in our guidance for the rest of the winter. But certainly, as we come out of the winter, certainly, as we talked about, we expect to see increasing volumes seasonally as we get into the second and third quarter.

所以——正如我們之前提到的，我們仍然有一些應急措施——我想說，這種天氣在整個一月份以及二月都持續了一段時間，現在才剛剛開始。我們對冬季剩餘時間的預測和指導中仍保留了應對突發情況的措施。但可以肯定的是，隨著冬季的結束，正如我們之前討論的那樣，我們預計隨著第二季和第三季的到來，銷售量將出現季節性成長。

I don't know if Mike, do you want to just talk about the in the rest of the year?

我不知道麥克，你是不是只想談今年剩下的時間？

Yeah. I think as Jonathan said in his opening remarks that we're going to see this -- the first half of the year as volumes lower than the second half. So there will be a pickup in the second half of the year. One thing I'll highlight though is, obviously, we're at 95% coverage with our MVCs. So there's a floor if production were to be lower, we've got 95% covered with MVCs, and that translates into 2027 as well at 90% before getting to 80% in 2028. So there's good protection for many downside.

是的。我認為正如喬納森在開場白中所說，我們將會看到這種情況——上半年銷量低於下半年。因此，下半年將會回升。不過我要強調一點，很顯然，我們的 MVC 覆蓋率達到了 95%。所以即使產量下降，我們也有最低限度，MVC 可以涵蓋 95% 的產量，到 2027 年也能達到 90%，到 2028 年達到 80%。所以很多不利因素都能得到很好的防範。

In terms of phasing, as Jonathan described, first quarter, we've been hit by the weather, and we'll be recovering from that. Second and third quarters are typically better months, and we'll get more production from that. And in the fourth quarter, we typically dial in some conservatism because we start getting back into winter weather again. And the OpEx, again, there as well will have an element of reduced -- and that's just phasing, seasonal phasing.

就進度安排而言，正如喬納森所描述的那樣，第一季我們受到了天氣的影響，我們將從中恢復過來。第二季和第三季通常是業績較好的月份，我們會從中獲得更高的產量。到了第四季度，我們通常會採取一些保守的策略，因為我們又開始進入冬季天氣了。營運支出方面，同樣也會有所減少──這只是分階段進行的，季節性的分階段進行。

Super quick second one for me, just following up on Doug's question, and apologies if I missed it, but do you guys have a kind of longer-term leverage target in mind now specifically? Or is it just say, hey, we expect to kind of put some more cash towards that over time and delever as EBITDA grows? I was just trying to think of a new target.

我還有一個問題，很簡單，是接著 Doug 的問題問的，如果我錯過了請見諒，你們現在有沒有具體的長期槓桿目標？或者只是說，嘿，我們預計隨著時間的推移，會投入更多資金到這方面，隨著 EBITDA 的增長而降低槓桿率？我當時正在想一個新的目標。

Yeah. I think what we're planning to do over the next three years with our free cash flow after distributions is just use that to both strengthen the balance sheet by delevering, by paying down debt, and including that as part of our fundamental incremental shareholder returns. So it's not a designed level that we want to get to, it's just going to naturally occur that as EBITDA starts to build up back up as we don't increase the absolute level of debt. And as we include some free cash flow towards paying down debt, our 3 times leverage is naturally going to delever. But there's no specific target we're going to get to.

是的。我認為，未來三年，我們計劃利用分紅後的自由現金流，一方面通過去槓桿化、償還債務來加強資產負債表，另一方面將其作為我們基本股東回報的一部分。所以這不是我們想要達到的目標水平，而是隨著 EBITDA 開始恢復成長，同時我們又不增加債務的絕對水平，這種情況自然而然就會發生。隨著我們將一些自由現金流用於償還債務，我們3倍的槓桿率自然會降低。但我們並沒有要達到的具體目標。

One of the key things that Jonathan has highlighted, obviously, is the free cash flow that we expect to generate over the next three years, and that's going to be substantial in the context of being able to fund not only our growth of 5% on distributions within the MVCs but also to pay on debt and also provide shareholder returns over the next few years supported by our strong MVC position.

顯然，喬納森強調的關鍵一點是，我們預計在未來三年內產生的自由現金流，這將非常可觀，不僅可以為我們在 MVC 中 5% 的分紅增長提供資金，還可以償還債務，並在未來幾年內，憑藉我們強大的 MVC 地位，為股東提供回報。

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題了。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。