Hess Midstream LP (HESM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the fourth quarter 2024 Hess Midstream conference call.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 2024 年第四季 Hess Midstream 電話會議。

My name is Gigi, and I'll be your operator for today.

我叫 Gigi，今天我將擔任您的接線生。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音以供重播。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Gordon, Vice President of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Jennifer Gordon。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Thank you, Gigi.

謝謝你，吉吉。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in our fourth quarter earnings conference call.

大家下午好，感謝大家參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。

Our earnings release was issued this morning and appears on our website, www.hessmidstream.com.

我們的收益報告已於今天早上發布，並刊登在我們的網站 www.hessmidstream.com 上。

Today's conference call contains projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

今天的電話會議包含聯邦證券法意義內的預測和其他前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in such statements.

這些聲明受已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與這些聲明中表達或暗示的結果不同。

These risks include those set forth in the Risk Factors section of Hess Midstream's filings with the SEC.

這些風險包括 Hess Midstream 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中「風險因素」部分中列出的風險。

Also on today's conference call, we may discuss certain GAAP financial measures.

此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們可能會討論某些 GAAP 財務指標。

A reconciliation of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the earnings release.

這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標之間的差異可在收益報告中找到。

With me today are John Gatling, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Jonathan Stein, Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我在一起的有總裁兼營運長約翰‧加特林 (John Gatling)；以及財務長喬納森·斯坦（Jonathan Stein）。

I'll now turn the call over to John Gatling.

現在我將電話轉給約翰·加特林。

Thanks, Jennifer.

謝謝，珍妮佛。

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Hess Midstream's fourth quarter 2024 conference call.

大家下午好，歡迎參加 Hess Midstream 2024 年第四季電話會議。

Today, I'll review our 2024 performance and highlights, provide an overview of our '25 plans and longer-term outlook through 2027 and give an update of Hess Corporation's results and outlook for the Bakken.

今天，我將回顧我們 2024 年的業績和亮點，概述我們的 25 年計劃和 2027 年的長期展望，並更新赫斯公司的業績和對巴肯的展望。

Jonathan will then review our financial results.

然後喬納森將審查我們的財務結果。

2024 was a year of continued strong performance execution for Hess Midstream.

2024 年是 Hess Midstream 持續強勁表現的一年。

We delivered significant volume growth, including 14% year-over-year growth in gas processing throughputs.

我們實現了產量大幅成長，其中天然氣加工吞吐量年增 14%。

Additionally, we made excellent progress on key multiyear projects to strategically grow our gas gathering system while advancing our planned gas processing expansion.

此外，我們在推進計劃中的天然氣加工擴建的同時，在策略性地發展我們的天然氣收集系統方面取得了重大進展。

Today, we issued our guidance release, extending our MVCs and growth profile through 2027, with gas volumes expected to grow by more than 25% from 2024.

今天，我們發布了指導意見，將我們的 MVC 和成長前景延長至 2027 年，預計天然氣產量將從 2024 年起成長 25% 以上。

Our long-term growth remains driven by Hess' planned development activity and increasing third-party volumes, reinforcing the need for additional gas processing capacity.

我們的長期成長仍然受到赫斯計劃的開發活動和不斷增加的第三方產量的推動，這加強了對額外天然氣處理能力的需求。

Now turning to Hess Upstream highlights.

現在來談談 Hess Upstream 的亮點。

In the fourth quarter, Bakken net production averaged 208,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, including 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day from percentage of proceed contracts, which do not impact Hess Midstream throughputs.

第四季度，巴肯淨產量平均為每天 208,000 桶油當量，其中包括來自收益百分比合約的每天 20,000 桶油當量，這不會影響赫斯中游的產量。

For full year 2024, Bakken net production averaged 204,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, marking a 12% year-over-year increase.

2024 年全年，巴肯淨產量平均為每天 204,000 桶油當量，較去年同期成長 12%。

Hess reaffirmed its plan to maintain a 4-rig drilling program in 2025 and predict first quarter 2025 net production to be in the range of 195,000 to 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

赫斯重申了其在 2025 年維持 4 個鑽機鑽井計劃的計劃，並預測 2025 年第一季的淨產量將在每天 195,000 至 200,000 桶油當量之間。

The decrease from the fourth quarter 2024 is primarily attributed to severe winter weather in January.

2024 年第四季的下降主要歸因於 1 月的嚴酷冬季天氣。

Now turning to Hess Midstream results.

現在來談談 Hess Midstream 的結果。

In the fourth quarter, we delivered strong operational performance, with gas processing volumes averaging 447 million cubic foot per day, crude terminaling volumes averaging 127,000 barrels of oil per day and water gathering volumes averaged 130,000 barrels of water per day.

第四季度，我們取得了強勁的營運業績，天然氣處理量平均為每天 4.47 億立方英尺，原油終端處理量平均為每天 127,000 桶石油，集水量平均為每天 13 萬桶水。

For full year 2024, Hess Midstream's gas processing volumes averaged 420 million cubic foot per day, crude terminaling volumes averaged 123,000 barrels of oil per day, and water gathering volumes averaged 125,000 barrels of water per day, resulting in a full year adjusted EBITDA of $1.136 billion.

2024 年全年，Hess Midstream 的天然氣處理量平均為每天 4.2 億立方英尺，原油終端處理量平均為每天 12.3 萬桶石油，集水量平均為每天 12.5 萬桶水，全年調整後 EBITDA 為 11.36 億美元。

Now moving to Hess Midstream's guidance.

現在轉向 Hess Midstream 的指導。

For the first quarter of 2025, we anticipate volumes to be lower than the fourth quarter of 2024 due to the impact of severe winter weather in January and the possibility of further weather-related impacts in the first quarter.

我們預計，2025 年第一季的銷量將低於 2024 年第四季度，原因是 1 月份嚴寒天氣的影響以及第一季可能進一步受到天氣影響。

For full year 2025, we anticipate approximately 10% growth in volumes across our oil and gas systems compared to 2024, primarily driven by Hess' development activity and increasing third-party volumes.

到 2025 年全年，我們預計我們的石油和天然氣系統的產量將比 2024 年增長約 10%，這主要得益於 Hess 的開發活動和第三方產量的增加。

We expect gas processing volumes to average between 455 million and 465 million cubic foot per day, crude terminaling volumes to average between 130,000 barrels of oil per day and 140,000 barrels of oil per day and water gathering volumes to average between 120,000 barrels of oil per day and 130,000 barrels of water per day.

我們預期天然氣處理量平均在 4.55 億至 4.65 億立方英尺/天之間，原油終端處理量平均在 13 萬桶/天至 14 萬桶/天之間，集水量平均在 12 萬桶/天至 13 萬桶/天之間。

Driven by volume growth, our adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is projected to increase by 11% at the midpoint compared to 2024, with an expected range of $1.235 billion to $1.285 billion.

受銷售成長的推動，我們預計 2025 年的調整後 EBITDA 將較 2024 年中期成長 11%，預計範圍為 12.35 億美元至 12.85 億美元。

Building on our 2025 volume growth, we anticipate gas volumes to increase by approximately 10% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, while oil volumes are expected to grow by approximately 5% annually over the same period.

基於我們 2025 年產量成長，我們預計 2026 年天然氣產量將成長約 10%，2027 年將成長 5%，而石油產量預計在同一時期每年將成長約 5%。

This includes planned regulatory inspections and maintenance at the Tioga Gas Plant in 2027, which is expected to temporarily reduce gas volumes and have a full year impact of approximately 10 million cubic foot per day.

其中包括 2027 年對泰奧加天然氣廠進行的計畫監管檢查和維護，預計將暫時減少天然氣產量，對全年產量造成約 1,000 萬立方英尺/天的影響。

Given our growth trajectory, we anticipate exceeding our current gas processing capacity in 2027.

根據我們的成長軌跡，我們預計 2027 年我們的天然氣處理能力將超過目前的水準。

To address this, we are beginning construction this year on the previously announced 125 million cubic feet per day Capa gas plant.

為了解決這個問題，我們今年開始建造先前宣布的日產1.25億立方英尺的卡帕天然氣工廠。

Once operational in 2027, the new plant will support throughput growth from Hess and third parties through at least the end of the decade.

新工廠將於 2027 年投入運營，至少到本世紀末將支持 Hess 和第三方的產量成長。

Now turning to Hess Midstream's 2025 capital program.

現在來談談 Hess Midstream 的 2025 年資本計畫。

Total capital expenditures for the year are expected to be approximately $300 million, with $125 million dedicated to ongoing expenditures for gathering system well connects and maintenance, and $175 million allocated to project-based investments, including volume-driven, gas gathering and processing expansions.

預計全年總資本支出約為 3 億美元，其中 1.25 億美元用於收集系統井連接和維護的持續支出，1.75 億美元用於基於項目的投資，包括數量驅動、天然氣收集和處理擴建。

In 2025, we are focused on completing two new compressor stations and their associated gathering systems.

2025年，我們致力於完成兩個新的壓縮機站及其相關的收集系統。

Once operational, these stations are expected to add a combined 85 million cubic foot per day of gas compression capacity, with the potential to expand up to approximately 140 million cubic foot per day.

一旦投入運營，這些加氣站預計每天將增加 8,500 萬立方英尺的天然氣壓縮能力，最高可達每天約 1.4 億立方英尺。

Additionally, our growth capital will support the construction and fabrication of the 125 million cubic foot per day Capa gas plant.

此外，我們的成長資本將支持日產 1.25 億立方英尺的 Capa 天然氣工廠的建設和製造。

These projects are expected to provide necessary gas gathering and processing capacity to meet growing demand.

預計這些項目將提供必要的天然氣收集和處理能力，以滿足日益增長的需求。

We plan to maintain annual capital expenditures in the range of approximately $250 million to $300 million through 2027.

我們計劃在 2027 年將年度資本支出維持在約 2.5 億至 3 億美元之間。

This includes completing the Capa gas plant and starting construction on an additional compressor station in 2026.

其中包括完成卡帕天然氣廠的建設並於 2026 年開始建造額外的壓縮機站。

While capital allocation will shift as our growth projects progress, we generally expect spending to decline over time as we finalize gathering expansions and focus on the commissioning of the Capa gas plant in 2027.

雖然資本配置將隨著我們成長專案的進展而發生變化，但隨著我們完成收集擴建並專注於 2027 年 Capa 天然氣工廠的調試，我們普遍預計支出將隨著時間的推移而下降。

In summary, we remain focused on executing our strategy of disciplined, low-cost investments to meet growing basin demand while maintaining reliable operations and strong financial performance.

總之，我們仍然專注於執行有紀律的、低成本的投資策略，以滿足不斷增長的盆地需求，同時保持可靠的營運和強勁的財務表現。

With growth projected through 2027 and beyond, we expect to generate sustainable cash flow and create opportunities to return additional capital to our shareholders.

隨著預計到 2027 年及以後的成長，我們有望產生可持續的現金流並創造機會向股東返還更多資本。

I'll now turn the call over to Jonathan to review our financial results and guidance.

現在我將把電話轉給喬納森來審查我們的財務結果和指導。

Thanks, John, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，約翰，大家下午好。

Today, I will summarize our financial highlights in 2024, discussed our recently completed nomination process with Hess and provide details on our 2025 guidance and outlook through 2027, including our continued prioritization of ongoing and incremental return of capital to shareholders.

今天，我將總結我們 2024 年的財務亮點，與 Hess 討論我們最近完成的提名流程，並詳細介紹我們 2025 年的指導和 2027 年的展望，包括我們繼續優先考慮持續和逐步向股東返還資本。

For 2024, we delivered strong results, with full year net income of $659 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.136 billion.

2024 年，我們取得了強勁的業績，全年淨收入為 6.59 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 11.36 億美元。

This adjusted EBITDA represents a growth of approximately 12% from 2023.

調整後的 EBITDA 較 2023 年成長約 12%。

Looking forward, we have line of sight to greater than 10% growth in net income, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow in each of 2025 and 2026, followed by greater than 5% growth in 2027, supported by growing oil and gas throughput volumes.

展望未來，我們預計，在石油和天然氣吞吐量不斷增長的推動下，2025年和2026年的淨收入、調整後EBITDA和調整後自由現金流將分別成長10%以上，2027年將增加5%以上。

Gas volumes, which make up 75% of our revenues, are expected to grow by approximately 10% in each of 2025 and 2026, followed by approximately 5% in 2027.

天然氣產量占我們收入的 75%，預計 2025 年和 2026 年將分別成長約 10%，2027 年將成長約 5%。

We continue to execute a financial strategy that prioritizes return of capital to shareholders with a demonstrated track record of differentiated shareholder returns.

我們繼續執行優先向股東返還資本的財務策略，並擁有差異化股東回報的良好記錄。

Since the beginning of 2021, we have returned $1.95 billion to shareholders through accretive repurchases.

自 2021 年初以來，我們已透過增值回購向股東返還了 19.5 億美元。

In addition, through a combination of our 5% targeted annual distribution growth and 10 distribution level increases following each repurchase, we have increased our distribution per Class A share by approximately 55% since 2021 and by over 10% in 2024.

此外，透過結合我們 5% 的目標年度分配成長率和每次回購後 10 次的分配水準提升，我們自 2021 年以來已將每股 A 類股票的分配提高了約 55%，並在 2024 年提高了 10% 以上。

As a result, our total shareholder return yield is one of the highest of our midstream peers.

因此，我們的股東總回報率在中游同行中名列前茅。

Furthermore, our leverage of approximately 3.1 times adjusted EBITDA is one of the lowest among our peers, highlighting our differentiated ability to deliver significant shareholder returns while also maintaining balance sheet strength.

此外，我們的槓桿率約為調整後 EBITDA 的 3.1 倍，是同業中最低的之一，突顯了我們在維持資產負債表實力的同時，為股東帶來可觀回報的差異化能力。

Earlier this month, we completed our first unit repurchase transaction in 2025 of $100 million that was accretive on both an adjusted free cash flow per Class A share basis and an earnings per Class A share basis.

本月初，我們完成了 2025 年首筆 1 億美元單位回購交易，該交易對每股 A 類股調整後自由現金流和每股 A 類股收益均有增值。

As we've done in the past, our fourth quarter distribution increase included our targeted 5% annual growth per Class A share and an additional increase utilizing excess adjusted free cash flow after distribution following the repurchase.

正如我們過去所做的那樣，我們第四季度的分配成長包括我們目標的每股 A 類股票 5% 的年增長率，以及利用回購後分配後的超額調整後自由現金流的額外增長。

As a result, for 2024 and every year since we started our return of capital framework, our distribution for Class A share growth has been approximately 10%, significantly above our targeted 5% annual growth.

因此，自 2024 年以及我們開始資本回報框架以來的每一年，我們的 A 類股票成長分配都約為 10%，遠高於我們 5% 的年增長率目標。

As announced in our guidance release this morning, we are continuing to prioritize shareholder returns and a strong balance sheet.

正如我們今天早上發布的指導意見中宣布的那樣，我們將繼續優先考慮股東回報和強勁的資產負債表。

We have extended our annual distribution per Class A share growth target of at least 5% through 2027 and are expecting greater than $1.25 billion of financial flexibility through 2027 for capital allocation that includes prioritization of potential unit repurchases on an ongoing basis while maintaining our long-term leverage target of 3 times adjusted EBITDA.

我們已將 A 類股票年度分配成長目標至少延長至 2027 年，即至少 5%，並預計到 2027 年資本配置的財務靈活性將超過 12.5 億美元，包括持續優先考慮潛在單位回購，同時保持我們的長期槓桿目標為調整後 EBITDA 的 3 倍。

Turning to our results.

談到我們的結果。

For the fourth quarter, net income was $172 million compared to $165 million for the third quarter.

第四季淨收入為 1.72 億美元，第三季淨收入為 1.65 億美元。

Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $298 million compared to $287 million for the third quarter.

第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.98 億美元，第三季為 2.87 億美元。

The increase in adjusted EBITDA relative to the third quarter was primarily attributable to the following: total revenues, excluding pass-through revenues, increased by approximately $15 million, primarily driven by higher throughput volumes resulting in segment revenue changes as follows.

調整後的 EBITDA 相對於第三季的成長主要歸因於以下因素：不包括轉手收入的總收入增加了約 1500 萬美元，這主要是由於吞吐量增加導致分部收入發生如下變化。

Processing revenues increased by approximately $9 million, and gathering revenues increased by approximately $6 million.

加工收入增加約 900 萬美元，收集收入增加約 600 萬美元。

Total cost and expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization, pass-through costs and net of our proportional share of LM4 earnings increased by approximately $4 million, primarily from higher G&A allocations under our Omnibus and employees incumbent agreement, partially offset by lower general maintenance, resulting in adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of $298 million.

總成本和費用（不包括折舊和攤銷、轉嫁成本並扣除我們在 LM4 收益中的相應份額）增加了約 400 萬美元，這主要由於我們的綜合協議和員工現任協議下的 G&A 分配增加，但被一般維護費用的降低部分抵消，導致第四季度的調整後 EBITDA 為 2.98 億美元。

Our gross adjusted EBITDA margin for the fourth quarter was maintained at approximately 80%, above our 75% target, highlighting our continued strong operating leverage.

我們第四季的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率維持在 80% 左右，高於 75% 的目標，突顯出我們持續強勁的營運槓桿。

Fourth quarter capital expenditures were approximately $84 million, and net interest, excluding amortization of deferred finance costs, was approximately $50 million, resulting in adjusted free cash flow of approximately $164 million.

第四季資本支出約8,400萬美元，不包括遞延融資費用攤銷的淨利息約為5,000萬美元，調整後的自由現金流量約為1.64億美元。

We had a drawn balance of $15 million on our revolving credit facility at year-end.

截至年底，我們的循環信貸餘額為 1500 萬美元。

Turning to our rates for 2025 and beyond.

談談我們2025年及以後的利率。

The majority of our systems that represent approximately 85% of our revenues are fixed fees, which rates increase each year based on an inflation escalator capped at 3%, resulting in steadily increasing rates through 2033.

我們的系統約占我們收入的 85%，大多數都是固定費用，這些費用的費率每年根據上限為 3% 的通貨膨脹率增加，從而到 2033 年費率將穩步增加。

For our terminaling and water gathering systems that represent approximately 15% of our revenues, we continue to reset our rates through our annual rate redetermination process through 2033.

對於占我們收入約 15% 的終端和集水系統，我們將透過年度費率重新確定流程繼續重置費率，直至 2033 年。

Based on this rate setting process for 2025, tariff rates across all our systems are higher than 2024 rates.

根據 2025 年的稅率制定流程，我們所有系統的關稅稅率都高於 2024 年的稅率。

Turning to volumes.

轉向卷。

As John described, we expect continued growth in oil and gas throughputs from Hess and third parties.

正如約翰所描述的，我們預計赫斯和第三方的石油和天然氣吞吐量將繼續成長。

Oil volumes are expected to grow by approximately 10% in 2025 and approximately 5% in each of 2026 and 2027.

預計 2025 年石油產量將成長約 10%，2026 年和 2027 年分別成長約 5%。

Gas funds are expected to grow by approximately 10% in each of 2025 and 2026, followed by approximately 5% in 2027.

預計 2025 年和 2026 年天然氣基金將分別成長約 10%，2027 年將成長約 5%。

Based on this expected growth rate, we expect to exceed our current gas processing capacity in 2027, opening in construction this year as planned of our new 125 million cubic foot per day gas processing plant that is expected to be aligned in 2027.

根據這一預期成長率，我們預計 2027 年的天然氣處理能力將超過目前的水平，並按計劃於今年開工建設新的 1.25 億立方英尺/日的天然氣處理廠，預計 2027 年投入使用。

This investment in gas processing to meet our growing volumes is underpinned by our downside protection from MVCs with Hess across all of our systems that continue to be set at 80% of nominated volumes set three years in advance through 2033.

為了滿足我們不斷增長的需求，我們對天然氣處理進行了投資，這得益於我們與 Hess 合作，為所有系統的 MVC 提供下行保護，這些保護將繼續設定為提前三年設定的指定產量的 80%，直至 2033 年。

In our guidance release this morning, we provide MVCs through the year 2025 through 2027.

在我們今天早上發布的指導意見中，我們將提供 2025 年至 2027 年的 MVC。

As part of the nomination process, MVCs for 2025 and 2026 were reviewed and were required increase, while MVCs for 2027 were newly established based on 80% of the Hess nominated volumes for each system in that year.

作為提名過程的一部分，對 2025 年和 2026 年的 MVC 進行了審查並要求增加，而 2027 年的 MVC 是根據當年 Hess 為每個系統提名的 80% 容量新設立的。

Turning to our financial guidance for 2025 and beyond.

談談我們對2025年及以後的財務指引。

For the full year 2025, we expect net income of $715 million to $765 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.235 billion to $1.285 billion.

對於 2025 年全年，我們預計淨收入為 7.15 億美元至 7.65 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 12.35 億美元至 12.85 億美元。

This adjusted EBITDA growth of approximately 11% at the midpoint of our range is supported by continued growing revenues from physical volume growth across oil and gas systems as John described.

正如約翰所描述的，調整後的 EBITDA 成長率位於我們範圍的中間值，約為 11%，這得益於石油和天然氣系統實物量成長帶來的持續收入成長。

We continue to target a gross adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 75% in 2025.

我們繼續將 2025 年的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率定為約 75%。

For 2025, with total expected capital expenditures of approximately $300 million, we expect to generate adjusted free cash flow of between $735 million and $785 million and excess adjusted cash flow of approximately $135 million after fully funding our targeted growing distribution.

到 2025 年，預計總資本支出約為 3 億美元，在為我們的目標增長分銷提供全額資金後，我們預計產生 7.35 億美元至 7.85 億美元的調整後自由現金流和約 1.35 億美元的超額調整後現金流。

With increasing adjusted EBITDA, we expect our leverage for 2025 to be below our 3 times adjusted EBITDA target on a full year basis.

隨著調整後 EBITDA 的增加，我們預計 2025 年的槓桿率將低於全年 3 倍調整後 EBITDA 目標。

For the first quarter of 2025, we expect net income to be approximately $160 million to $170 million and adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $285 million to $295 million, including the impact of severe winter weather in January and the potential for additional winter weather events through the quarter.

對於 2025 年第一季度，我們預計淨收入約為 1.6 億至 1.7 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 約為 2.85 億至 2.95 億美元，其中包括 1 月份嚴寒天氣的影響以及本季​​度可能出現的更多冬季天氣事件。

For the remainder of 2025, we expect growing adjusted EBITDA each quarter consistent with increasing volumes across oil and gas systems.

對於 2025 年的剩餘時間，我們預計每季的調整後 EBITDA 將隨著石油和天然氣系統的產量成長而成長。

Looking beyond 2025, we have clear visibility to volume, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow growth that supports our financial strategy.

展望2025年後，我們對銷售量、調整後的EBITDA和調整後的自由現金流成長有清楚的了解，這將支持我們的財務策略。

Supported by volumes that continue to grow in both oil and gas to at least 2027, fees that are steadily increasing based on our annual inflation escalator, the targeted gross adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 75%, we expect greater than 10% growth in adjusted EBITDA in 2026, followed by greater than 5% growth in 2027, in line with growing Hess gas volumes supported by incremental gas processing capacity and rates that increase annually with inflation, we expect continued growth in EBITDA at least for the rest of the decade.

由於石油和天然氣產量至少到 2027 年都將持續增長，費用也將根據我們年度通脹率的上升而穩步增加，加上目標調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 75%，我們預計 2026 年調整後的 EBITDA 將增長超過天然氣 10%，2027 年將增長超過 5%，這與通脹率至少在本世紀剩餘時間內將繼續增長。

With growing adjusted EBITDA and relatively stable capital expenditures that are expected to trend lower in 2027, we expect adjusted free cash flow to grow by greater than 10% in 2026, by greater than 5% in 2027 and then continue to grow for the rest of the decade, providing significant financial flexibility to continue return of capital to shareholders.

隨著調整後的 EBITDA 不斷增長以及資本支出相對穩定且預計 2027 年將呈下降趨勢，我們預計調整後的自由現金流在 2026 年將增長 10% 以上，在 2027 年將增長 5% 以上，並在未來十年繼續增長，從而提供顯著的財務靈活性以繼續向股東返還資本。

In addition, we are continuing to prioritize shareholder returns with our return on capital framework.

此外，我們將繼續透過資本回報框架優先考慮股東回報。

First, we are continuing to grow our base distribution by extending our targeted distribution growth of at least 5% annually per Class A share through 2027.

首先，我們將繼續增加基礎分配，將 A 類股票每年至少 5% 的分配目標延長至 2027 年。

Second, we have financial flexibility for potential significant incremental shareholder returns beyond our growing base distribution.

其次，我們具有財務靈活性，可以在不斷增長的基礎分配之外為股東帶來潛在的大幅增量回報。

With expected adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow growth of greater than 10% in 2026 and greater than 5% in 2027 in excess of our targeted annual distribution growth of at least 5%, we expect to generate excess adjusted free cash flow beyond our distribution, and leverage is expected to decline to below 2.5 times adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026 and to continue below this level through 2027, providing leverage capacity relative to our long-term 3 times adjusted EBITDA leverage target.

預計 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 和調整後自由現金流增長率將超過 10%，2027 年將超過 5%，超過我們至少 5% 的目標年度分配增長率，我們預計將產生超出我們分配的超額調整後自由現金流，預計槓桿率將下降至 2026 年底調整後 EBITDA 的 2.5 倍DA 槓桿比率目標的槓桿能力。

As a result, with a growing cash balance and significant leverage capacity, we expect to have greater than $1.25 billion of financial flexibility through 2027 for capital allocation that includes the potential for multiple unit repurchases per year through this period and the potential for incremental distribution level increases associated with these repurchases beyond our targeted at least 5% annual distribution per Class A share growth.

因此，隨著現金餘額的不斷增長和顯著的槓桿能力，我們預計到 2027 年將擁有超過 12.5 億美元的財務靈活性，用於資本配置，其中包括在此期間每年多個單位回購的可能性以及與這些回購相關的增量分配水平增加的可能性，超出我們目標的每股 A 類股票每年分配至少 5% 的分配增長。

In summary, we are pleased to have delivered a strong 2024 and look forward to a visible trajectory of growth in our operational financial metrics that underpins our unique and differentiated financial strategy with a focus on consistent and ongoing return of capital to our shareholders.

總而言之，我們很高興能夠在 2024 年取得強勁業績，並期待我們的營運財務指標呈現明顯的成長軌跡，這將支撐我們獨特、差異化的財務策略，重點是持續不斷地為股東帶來資本回報。

This concludes my remarks.

我的發言到此結束。

We'll be happy to answer any questions.

我們將很樂意回答您的任何問題。

I will now turn the call over to the operator.

我現在將把電話轉給接線生。

(Operator Instructions) Naomi Marfatia, UBS.

(操作員指示) 瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Naomi Marfatia。

My first question is on your multiyear growth outlook.

我的第一個問題是關於你們多年的成長前景。

To have some established 27 MVCs and slightly increased '25 and '26 MVCs, and you all have alluded to 10% EBITDA growth in.

擁有一些已建立的 27 個 MVC 並略微增加 '25 和 '26 個 MVC，並且你們都提到了 10% 的 EBITDA 增長。

So just kind of curious on how you think about -- like is this -- is this a (inaudible) based of MVCs and could we potentially see an upside to your EBITDA growth target?

所以我只是有點好奇你是如何看待——比如說——這是基於 MVC 的（聽不清楚）嗎，我們是否有可能看到你的 EBITDA 成長目標上升？

This is Jonathan.

這是喬納森。

I'm going to start.

我要開始了。

Maybe I'll just walk through kind of the math of how we set the MVCs and what those mean in terms of the volume growth.

也許我只是想介紹一下我們如何設定 MVC 以及它們對於容量成長的意義。

I'll turn it over to John to talk about underpinning that growth from a business point of view.

我將讓約翰來談談如何從商業角度支撐這一成長。

So as we said, I'm going to use gas processing.

正如我們所說的，我將使用氣體處理。

As we've said in the past, gas is 75% of our revenues.

正如我們過去所說，天然氣占我們收入的 75%。

So focusing on that, we provided guidance of 10% growth in 2026 and 5% growth in 2027.

因此，我們重點關注這一點，給出了 2026 年成長 10% 和 2027 年成長 5% 的預期。

So if you look at our MVCs, you can see they provide visibility to the volumes that underpin that growth.

因此，如果你看一下我們的 MVC，你會發現它們提供了支撐這種增長的數量的可見性。

So if you take, for example, 2026, our MVC goes up at 80%, that's 495 million cubic feet per day.

以 2026 年為例，我們的 MVC 將增加 80%，即每天 4.95 億立方英尺。

Compared with the midpoint of our 2025 guidance, that implies more than 7.5% growth.

與我們 2025 年指引的中點相比，這意味著成長超過 7.5%。

And if we look at 2027, our MVC growth up there, that's 505 million cubic feet per day.

如果我們展望 2027 年，我們的 MVC 成長將達到每天 5.05 億立方英尺。

You need to add back the 10 million cubic feet per day maintenance impact that John mentioned for the TGP maintenance back to the 550 million cubic feet per day, which is about a 4% annual growth rate.

您需要將約翰提到的三峽工程維護產生的每天 1000 萬立方英尺的維護影響加回到每天 5.5 億立方英尺的水平，即大約 4% 的年增長率。

On top of that, add in additional third-party volumes and that gets you to the growth rate with the Hess volumes really being the primary driver of our growth through the period.

除此之外，再加上第三方銷量，成長率就達到了，而 Hess 銷量確實是我們這段時期成長的主要動力。

So with that, now I'll turn it over to John.

因此，現在我將把話題交給約翰。

He can give you the background on kind of what's driving that growth.

他可以向您介紹推動這一成長的背景因素。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, Jonathan.

謝謝，喬納森。

Yeah, I mean it's a good question.

是的，我認為這是個好問題。

We continue to be focused on the 4-rig development plan.

我們繼續專注於 4 座鑽機的開發計畫。

And as productivity and efficiency improves, drilling longer laterals, improved cycle time, overall productivity of the wells, overall, Hess' program is continuing to generate growth, both on the oil side and on the gas side.

隨著生產力和效率的提高，鑽探更長的水平井，縮短循環時間，提高油井的整體生產力，總體而言，Hess 的專案在石油和天然氣方面都將繼續實現成長。

And as Jonathan mentioned, we've got oils growing 10% from '24 to '25, 5% from '25 to '26 and 5% from '26 to '27.

正如喬納森所提到的，我們的石油產量從 2024 年到 2025 年增長了 10%，從 2025 年到 2026 年增長了 5%，從 2026 年到 2027 年也增長了 5%。

In addition, our gas is outpacing oil a little bit as expected.

此外，正如預期的那樣，我們的天然氣產量略高於石油。

The GORs in the basin are continuing to increase.

盆地內的 GOR 持續增加。

As the wells mature, GOR naturally increases over time, so it's playing out exactly as we expected.

隨著油井的成熟，GOR 自然會隨著時間的推移而增加，因此其結果正如我們預期的那樣。

And so from our perspective, the growth trajectory supports the additional infrastructure that we'll need both from a field gathering perspective, but also from additional processing.

因此，從我們的角度來看，成長軌跡支援我們所需的額外基礎設施，無論是從現場收集角度，還是從額外處理角度。

So there's good line of sight between now and 2027, and actually even beyond that, showing the growth trajectory based on the MVCs that we've set and the guidance we've given in the earnings call.

因此，從現在到 2027 年，甚至更遠的未來，都有很好的前景，可以根據我們設定的 MVC 和我們在收益電話會議上給出的指導顯示成長軌跡。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then my second question is on your long-term outlook in Bakken.

我的第二個問題是關於您對巴肯的長期展望。

I know there has been quite some activity in Bakken recently.

我知道最近巴肯有很多活動。

Can you help us understand on how Hess is thinking about growing in Bakken either organically or via M&A?

您能否幫助我們了解赫斯如何考慮透過有機成長或併購方式在巴肯實現成長？

And if Hess is thinking of expanding beyond Bakken at any point in the future?

那麼 Hess 未來是否考慮將業務擴展到巴肯以外的地區？

Sure.

當然。

Well, maybe I'll hit the last part of your question first.

好吧，也許我應該先回答一下你問題的最後一部分。

I mean at this point, no, there's no plans to expand outside of the Bakken.

我的意思是，目前還沒有在巴肯地區以外擴張的計劃。

I think we're really, really happy with the position we've got.

我想我們對現在的狀況非常非常滿意。

Our strategic footprint is -- sits right on top of some of the best rock in the basin.

我們的戰略足跡是——坐落在盆地中一些最好的岩石之上。

We obviously have the support of Hess as a sponsor and then a significant partner for us to work with.

顯然，我們得到了赫斯的支持，他不僅是我們的贊助商，也是我們重要的合作夥伴。

From our perspective, the growth trajectory is really underpinned by Hess production.

從我們的角度來看，成長軌跡其實是由赫斯的生產所支撐的。

There's additional third-party opportunities out there and we're going to continue to leverage our infrastructure to capture those third-party volumes, and we do anticipate third parties will grow about at the same pace that Hess is growing.

還有更多的第三方機會，我們將繼續利用我們的基礎設施來獲取這些第三方業務，我們預計第三方業務的成長速度將與 Hess 相同。

But it really is underpinned -- the organic growth is really underpinned by Hess.

但它確實得到了支撐——有機成長確實得到了赫斯的支撐。

To your question on organic versus M&A activity, we continue to look at opportunities in the basin.

對於您關於有機活動與併購活動的問題，我們將繼續關注盆地中的機會。

We're always interested in looking at bolt-on opportunities.

我們始終對尋找附加機會很感興趣。

But from our perspective, with the growth built in, the bar is extremely high.

但從我們的角度來看，隨著成長的不斷推進，門檻已經非常高了。

Our disciplined approach is really kind of the thing that's stabilized us over the years.

我們嚴謹的作風正是我們多年來保持穩定的關鍵。

As I mentioned, we're in the process of building our own gas plant.

正如我所提到的，我們正在建造自己的天然氣工廠。

It's rightsized at 125 million cubic foot per day.

其合適規模為每天1.25億立方英尺。

It plays right in naturally with the growth trajectory that we've got planned through, through the end of the decade and even beyond that.

它與我們規劃的本世紀末乃至更遠未來的成長軌跡自然契合。

So from our perspective, we're really happy with the infrastructure, but we're always interested to look at bolt-on opportunities that make sense and integrate nicely into our strategic footprint.

因此，從我們的角度來看，我們對基礎設施非常滿意，但我們始終有興趣尋找有意義的附加機會並很好地融入我們的策略足跡。

(Operator Instructions) Doug Irwin, Citi.

(操作員指示) Doug Irwin，花旗銀行。

Maybe one on CapEx to start.

也許可以從資本支出 (CapEx) 開始。

Just wondering if you could maybe provide a little bit more color on just what's driving the CapEx budget higher near term, both the '25 guide moving higher, and I think you came in a little above budget on '24.

我只是想知道您是否可以提供更多有關推動短期資本支出預算上漲的詳細信息，'25 指南都在上漲，而且我認為您的'24 指南略高於預算。

And then just curious to get your view on what longer-term growth CapEx might look like once some of these projects come online.

我只是好奇地想聽聽您對這些項目上線後長期成長資本支出的看法。

Is it fair to assume that you see a pretty meaningful step down beyond '27 as you come out of a relatively higher growth phase with the processing build-out?

隨著你們走出加工建設相對較高的成長階段，是否可以合理地假設，在 27 年之後，你們將看到一個相當有意義的降級？

Yeah.

是的。

Maybe I'll start and then hand it over to Jonathan for a little bit of the longer-term CapEx view.

也許我會開始，然後把它交給喬納森，讓他了解一點長期的資本支出觀點。

From our perspective, the main component of CapEx in both '24 and '25 has really been activity phasing.

從我們的角度來看，24 年和 25 年資本支出的主要組成部分實際上是活動階段。

Hess has really done a great job from an overall efficiency perspective.

從整體效率角度來看，赫斯確實做得很好。

They're drilling faster wells, bringing the wells on sooner.

他們正在鑽探速度更快的油井，並更快地投產。

We're also seeing good productivity from the wells, drilling longer laterals.

我們也看到油井的生產力很高，可以鑽更長的水平段。

So that's -- we're really just trying to maintain the pace with Hess on the growth side.

所以 — — 我們實際上只是想在成長方面與 Hess 保持同步。

And third parties are generally following that same trajectory as well.

第三方基本上也遵循同樣的軌跡。

So that's a little bit of the acceleration into 2024.

因此，到 2024 年，這一速度將會有所加速。

And then '25 kind of represents the same.

然後‘25 代表相同的意思。

I mean as we start to kick off construction and fabrication of our gas plant expansion, we'll be doing some spending in 2025 for that.

我的意思是，當我們開始啟動天然氣工廠擴建的建設和製造時，我們將在 2025 年為此投入一些資金。

We think that approximately $300 million in 2025 is about right.

我們認為，到 2025 年，大約 3 億美元是合適的。

We do anticipate through '27 spending to be an approximate $250 million to $300 million range.

我們確實預計到 27 年支出將達到約 2.5 億至 3 億美元。

And then after that, we do expect the bulk of our growth infrastructure to be in place that will actually be able to support the growth trajectory through the end of the decade with that infrastructure.

在此之後，我們確實預計大部分成長基礎設施將到位，這些基礎設施將能夠真正支撐到本世紀末的成長軌跡。

There will be some opportunity for additional compression as Hess decides where it's going to drill and how it's going to operationalize the opportunity it has ahead of it, but we would expect, post 2027, to see a step down in CapEx activity after that.

當赫斯決定在哪裡鑽探以及如何利用眼前的機會時，將會有一些額外壓縮的機會，但我們預計，2027 年後，資本支出活動將會下降。

Jonathan, is there anything you wanted to add to that?

喬納森，你還有什麼要補充嗎？

That was good.

那很好。

I think as we've highlighted of our growth -- of our capital budget, $125 million is ongoing capital.

我認為，正如我們強調的成長一樣，在我們的資本預算中， 1.25 億美元是持續資本。

So that's kind of capital that we'll have ongoing through '27 and beyond.

所以這是我們將在27年及以後持續擁有的資本。

And then as John said, it's really the project capital to be phasing over the next couple of years, but in general, expect that to decline as some of these projects come online.

正如約翰所說，專案資本確實會在未來幾年內逐步減少，但總體而言，隨著一些專案的上線，預計資本將會下降。

And then while there may be some additional kind of growth capital beyond '27, it certainly would be declining relative to where we are right now.

儘管 27 年以後可能會出現某種額外的成長資本，但相對於現在的水平，它肯定會下降。

And I think that's really -- just to highlight, I think that's one of the exciting things that we're talking about today is not only that we can talk about visibility through 2027, both on the volume side and on the financial side, but really, we can talk about now really visibility through the rest of the decade.

我認為這真的是——只是為了強調，我認為這是我們今天談論的令人興奮的事情之一，不僅可以談論到 2027 年的可見性，包括數量方面和財務方面，而且實際上，我們現在可以談論在接下來的十年中真正的可見性。

And really there, we've talked about continued gas growth with the new plant coming online that supports growth for the rest of the decade, we just talked about capital (inaudible) over the next couple of years, but then declining.

實際上，我們談論的是隨著新工廠的上線，天然氣產量將持續增長，這將支持未來十年的成長，我們剛剛討論了未來幾年的資本（聽不清楚），但隨後會下降。

So with growing EBITDA for the rest of the decade and declining capital, that means that we'll have growing free cash flow, really, not just through 2027, as we've talked about, but really visibly now for the rest of the decade.

因此，隨著本世紀剩餘時間 EBITDA 的增長和資本的下降，這意味著我們的自由現金流將真正增長，不僅僅是到 2027 年，正如我們所討論的，現在在本世紀剩餘時間將非常明顯。

And that will really provide the opportunity for us to continue to fund distribution growth, to continue to fund potential incremental return on capital, not only through the 2027 as we've extended that today, but really visibility to the rest of the decade.

這將真正為我們提供機會，繼續為分銷成長提供資金，繼續為潛在的增量資本回報提供資金，不僅是到我們今天延長的 2027 年，而且真正為本世紀剩餘時間提供可見性。

So it's really an exciting time in our journey really (inaudible) on where we are right now so that we can give the visibility not just through 2027, which is already differentiated, but now we really have clear line of sight to our volume and financial metric growth through the rest of the decade.

因此，這確實是我們旅程中激動人心的時刻（聽不清楚），我們目前所處的位置使我們不僅可以提供到 2027 年的可見性（這已經是差異化的），而且現在我們真的可以清楚地看到我們在本世紀剩餘時間內的銷量和財務指標增長。

Okay.

好的。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

And my second question, I guess I just wanted to get your latest thoughts around the capital allocation program that you've extended into '27.

我的第二個問題是，我想我只是想了解您對延續到 27 年的資本配置計劃的最新想法。

And I guess in the context of all the potential changes that could happen at the sponsor level this year, I'm just curious how (inaudible) sponsor actions might factor into your decisions moving forward.

我想，考慮到今年贊助商層面可能發生的所有潛在變化，我只是好奇（聽不清楚）贊助商的行動會如何影響您未來的決策。

And specifically, I'm just wondering if buybacks potentially become less attractive relative to other uses of cash down the line if you're eventually having to repurchase from the public rather than directly from the sponsors.

具體來說，我只是想知道，如果最終不得不從公眾而不是直接從贊助商那裡回購，那麼回購是否會相對於其他現金用途變得不那麼有吸引力。

Sure.

當然。

Yeah.

是的。

No, we're really proud of our return on capital framework with our two parts, really, our 5% annual distribution growth that we can achieve even at MVC levels.

不，我們對我們的資本回報率框架感到非常自豪，該框架由兩部分組成，實際上，即使在 MVC 水平上，我們也能實現 5% 的年分銷增長率。

So that's really -- we're highly confident in our ability to deliver that.

所以，我們真的有信心我們有能力實現這個目標。

And then our incremental return of capital through repurchases.

然後我們透過回購增加資本回報。

And then I think what we've done, and we've gotten a lot of very positive feedback, is matching off those repurchases with dividend increases that are really funded by the lower share count and maintaining our total distributed cash at the same level.

然後我認為我們所做的，並且我們得到了很多非常積極的反饋，就是將這些回購與股息增加相匹配，這些股息實際上是由較低的股份數量資助的，並將我們的總分配現金維持在同一水平。

So it's allowed us that even though we've targeted at least 5% distribution growth, really since 2021, since we've started this program, our average distribution growth per year has really been approximately 10%, really almost double what we have just had in our base.

因此，儘管我們的目標是至少實現 5% 的分銷增長，但自 2021 年我們啟動該計劃以來，我們每年的平均分銷增長實際上已經達到約 10%，幾乎是我們基礎分銷增長的兩倍。

So now looking forward, we talked about $1.25 billion at least of financial flexibility.

所以現在展望未來，我們談論的是至少 12.5 億美元的財務彈性。

Expect to utilize that for certainly unit repurchases going forward and multiple times per year as we've done in the past, and then matching those with distribution level increases as I've described.

期望利用這些資金在未來進行一定的單位回購，並且像我們過去所做的那樣，每年進行多次，然後像我所描述的那樣，將其與分銷水平的提高相匹配。

I think in terms of how does that change potentially as our shareholder owning change, really I think no real change to that.

我認為，隨著股東所有權的變化，這種情況可能會發生怎樣的變化，實際上我認為這不會發生真正的變化。

I think is there a potential in the future that we would incorporate the public?

我認為未來我們是否有可能將公眾納入其中？

I mean, certainly, as the sponsor kind of percentages change over time, that's certainly something that we would consider.

我的意思是，當然，隨著贊助商的百分比隨著時間的推移而變化，這當然是我們需要考慮的事情。

In the past, we didn't include the public and the repurchases because we were building up our -- the liquidity of the public float and the size.

過去，我們沒有包括公眾和回購，因為我們正在建立公眾流通股的流動性和規模。

At this point, we are at the public being 48% of the ownership (inaudible) as we go forward, that becomes less of a concern.

目前，公眾擁有 48% 的所有權（聽不清楚），但隨著我們的發展，這個問題不再那麼令人擔憂。

So certainly, there's an opportunity to bring the public into the repurchase program, something we would certainly consider.

因此，這確實是一個讓公眾參與回購計畫的機會，我們肯定會考慮這一點。

Not something we're taking a step right now, but certainly something that we'd consider particularly as ownership would continue to change.

這不是我們現在要採取的措施，但我們肯定會考慮，特別是因為所有權會繼續改變。

But really, it's something, in terms of the program, no real change to the program.

但實際上，從計劃的角度來看，並沒有真正的改變。

May adjust, as I described, depending on ownership changes, but really continuing to execute the program and deliver the -- really, as I talked about, one of the highest total shareholder yields in the sector.

正如我所描述的，可能會根據所有權的變化進行調整，但實際上會繼續執行該計劃並實現——正如我所說的，這是該行業最高的總股東收益率之一。

Jackie Koletas, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑基·科萊塔斯（Jackie Koletas）。

First, I just want to start, given your expectations to reach below 2.5 times in '26, how do you think about the use of leverage going forward as you get below that target?

首先，我想問一下，鑑於您預期 26 年將達到 2.5 倍以下，當低於該目標時，您如何考慮使用槓桿？

Right.

正確的。

So what we've said is, if you think about the $1.25 billion of capacity that we have, that's really all funded by two elements.

因此，我們所說的是，如果你想想我們擁有的 12.5 億美元的產能，這實際上都是由兩個因素資助的。

First is leverage capacity, and then excess free cash flow after distributions.

首先是槓桿能力，然後是分配後的超額自由現金流。

If you kind of do the math with the EBITDA growth that we've given, assume about half a turn, let's say, at least, what you'll come up with is about half of that comes from leverage capacity, meaning half of the $1.25 billion.

如果您根據我們提供的 EBITDA 成長進行計算，假設大約半倍，至少，您會發現其中大約一半來自槓桿能力，即 12.5 億美元的一半。

The other half is really as our free cash flow exceeds growth, exceeds our 5% target distribution, that gives you about the other half of that $1.25 billion.

另一半實際上是因為我們的自由現金流超過了成長，超過了我們 5% 的目標分配，這給了你 12.5 億美元的另一半。

Certainly, we're in a great position to be able to -- primary objective is continue to focus on return on capital.

當然，我們處於有利地位，主要目標是繼續關注資本回報。

That's a priority.

這是當務之急。

As I said in my comments, John talked about, of course, we'll continue to look at bolt-on opportunities.

正如我在評論中所說，約翰談到，當然，我們會繼續尋找附加機會。

For us, we're very fortunate.

對我們來說，我們非常幸運。

It's a bit of an end on ore, but continuing our priority will be continue to value opportunities, but the bar is high.

這對礦石來說是一個結束，但我們的首要任務是繼續重視機會，但標準很高。

We have significant organic growth, and so there's not a need to do anything.

我們實現了顯著的有機成長，因此不需要做任何事情。

And then absent that, of course, we'll continue to focus on shareholder returns as we've done through incremental returns in repurchases and dividend increases.

當然，除此之外，我們將繼續關注股東回報，就像我們透過回購和增加股利來增加回報一樣。

Appreciate the color there.

欣賞那裡的色彩。

And just following up, the first quarter guidance is adjusted for those weather impacts in January.

接下來，第一季的預期將根據一月份的天氣影響進行調整。

What does that guidance assume beyond what has already occurred in the quarter?

除了本季已經發生的情況之外，該指引還做出了哪些假設？

And how do you expect the basin to recover for the rest of the months we have left?

您預計盆地在接下來的幾個月裡將如何恢復？

Yeah.

是的。

So I think for January, the weather has been kind of bouncing around a little bit just from an overall picture perspective, and wind also contributing to some operational challenges as well.

因此我認為，從整體情況來看，一月份的天氣有點不穩定，風也為營運帶來了一些挑戰。

Generally speaking, the first quarter tends to be a little bit more unpredictable from a weather perspective.

整體而言，從天氣角度來看，第一季的情況往往更難預測。

So again, we've obviously seen the impact, and I think the basin's order of magnitude is down about 10%.

所以，我們顯然已經看到了影響，我認為盆地的量級下降了約 10%。

Hess is down less than that.

赫斯的損失還不算太大。

I would say overall recovery has been strong.

我想說整體復甦勢頭強勁。

We expect volumes to get back online, but we still have two more -- at least two more months of weather ahead of us.

我們預計產量將恢復正常，但未來至少還要兩個月的天氣狀況。

So we're just trying to be thoughtful and maybe a little bit conservative on our approach to the first quarter, but just trying to manage expectations going into first quarter.

因此，我們只是試圖深思熟慮，也許對第一季的方法有點保守，但只是試圖管理對第一季的預期。

So overall, I think we feel like it's a -- our first quarter numbers are deliverable, and we're just kind of focused on supporting Hess as best we can as that volume recovers in the basin.

所以總的來說，我認為我們覺得這是——我們的第一季數據是可以交付的，我們只是專注於盡力支持赫斯，因為盆地的產量正在恢復。

One thing I just would add is if you look at our full year EBITDA guidance and then take our first quarter guidance, that really implies that on average, right, EBITDA Q2 through Q4 is going to be up 11% on average.

我只想補充一點，如果你看一下我們的全年 EBITDA 指引，然後再看第一季的指引，這實際上意味著，平均而言，第二季至第四季的 EBITDA 平均將成長 11%。

So really significant growth.

因此，成長確實顯著。

I would expect that growth to be phased, as Jonathan described, volume growth throughout the rest of the year.

我預計成長將分階段進行，正如喬納森所描述的那樣，銷售成長將持續到今年剩餘時間。

So expect that EBITDA to continue to grow.

因此預計 EBITDA 將繼續成長。

But certainly, once we get past the weather and all the things that John just described, it's only a significant step-up and continued growth for the rest of the year.

但可以肯定的是，一旦我們克服了天氣和約翰剛才所描述的所有因素，這將是一個顯著的進步，並將在今年剩餘時間內繼續增長。

Noah Katz, JPMorgan Chase.

摩根大通的諾亞卡茨 (Noah Katz)。

First, it would be helpful if you could provide a walk of expectations for EBITDA and costs throughout each quarter of 2025.

首先，如果您能提供 2025 年每季的 EBITDA 和成本預期，那將會很有幫助。

How should we think about the business compared to '24?

與 24 年相比，我們應該如何看待這項業務？

Yeah.

是的。

I think the way to think about this is, generally, the seasonality that we have, particularly in North Dakota, let's say, that will start on the cost side.

我認為考慮這個問題的方式是，一般來說，我們所擁有的季節性，特別是在北達科他州，這將從成本方面開始。

Really, Q1, typically a bit lower than other quarters.

確實，第一季通常比其他季度低一點。

Q2 and Q3 are really the quarters where we have the highest amount of activity.

Q2 和 Q3 確實是我們活動最多的季度。

And then what I would say in Q4 is we've had different types of quarters.

我想說的是，在第四季度，我們經歷了不同類型的季度。

If the weather is good, the team has really worked to optimize, our credit to the team, to really take advantage of getting worked out in Q4 before you get back into Q1 and really potential for severe winter weather.

如果天氣好，車隊就會真正努力進行優化，這是我們對車隊的讚揚，在回到 Q1 之前，車隊真正利用了 Q4 的優勢，並且確實有可能遭遇嚴酷的冬季天氣。

So it's a bit milder.

所以它比較溫和。

We have had years we'll be able to do a bit more.

我們還有幾年時間可以做更多的事情。

So that's always kind of a bit of a variable.

所以這總是有點變數。

Also in Q4, as you saw this year, allocations kind of finalized in Q4, so that always provides a little bit of variability.

同樣在第四季度，正如您今年看到的那樣，分配在第四季度就已經確定，因此總是會帶來一些變化。

On the volume side, expect really just steady growth quarter-on-quarter.

從銷量方面來看，預計環比成長確實會穩定成長。

Obviously, that will vary depending on wells online and all that type of thing.

顯然，這將取決於在線油井和所有類似的東西。

But in general, steady growth throughout the year.

但整體來看，全年平穩成長。

As we continue to bring more wells online, we continue to see growth in oil, and then growth with that in associated gas as well.

隨著我們不斷將更多的油井投入生產，我們不斷看到石油產量的成長，隨後也看到相關天然氣產量的成長。

And then as a quick follow-up, just looking at the trend of around $100 million in repurchases every quarter.

然後作為快速的後續行動，只需查看每季約 1 億美元的回購趨勢。

Do you think you could exceed this threshold in 2025?

您認為到 2025 年您能突破這個門檻嗎？

Or should we expect for this to stay relatively consistent?

或者我們應該期望它保持相對一致？

Sure.

當然。

Yeah.

是的。

What I would say is, look, we -- consistent with what we've been doing, we expect multiple repurchases per year.

我想說的是，看，我們 - 與我們一直在做的事情一致，我們預計每年會進行多次回購。

We have, as you saw, 2024, before that, we've been doing about $100 million, but that's not a set in stone, I would say, amount.

正如您所看到的，2024 年之前，我們的投資金額已經達到約 1 億美元，但我想說，這並不是一個一成不變的數額。

Certainly I would say that we did do $100 million already at the beginning here of the quarter.

當然，我想說的是，本季初我們就已經達到 1 億美元的目標了。

But that was really -- think of that more as a Q4 just as we kind of got into the Q4 holidays and all of that, we didn't want to kind of execute it right at year-end.

但那真的是——把它想像成第四季度，就像我們進入第四季度假期一樣，我們不想在年底時執行它。

So that was more of a kind of catch-up for Q4.

所以這更像是第四季的一種追趕。

So I would kind of think of it that way.

所以我會這麼想。

And then the pace we'll set throughout the year, but certainly expect multiple repurchases per quarter, similar to per year, similar to what we've done in the past.

然後，我們將在全年設定步伐，但肯定會預計每個季度都會進行多次回購，與每年類似，與我們過去所做的類似。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。