Hess Midstream LP (HESM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the third-quarter 2024 Hess Midstream conference call. My name is Gigi, and I'll be your operator for today. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

美好的一天，女士們先生們。歡迎參加 2024 年第三季 Hess Midstream 電話會議。我叫 Gigi，今天我將擔任您的接線生。（操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製以供重播之用。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Gordon, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Jennifer Gordon。請繼續。

Thank you, Gigi. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in our third-quarter earnings conference call. Our earnings release was issued this morning and appears on our website www/hessmidstream.com.

謝謝你，吉吉。大家下午好，感謝您參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。我們的收益報告於今天上午發布，並發佈在我們的網站 www/hessmidstream.com 上。

Today's conference call contains projections and other forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied in such statements. These risks include those set forth in the risk factors section of Hess Midstream's filings with the SEC.

今天的電話會議包含聯邦證券法含義內的預測和其他前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與此類陳述中明示或暗示的結果不同。這些風險包括 Hess Midstream 向 SEC 提交的文件的風險因素部分中列出的風險。

Also on today's conference call, we may discuss certain GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the earnings release. With me today are John Gatling, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Jonathan Stein, Chief Financial Officer.

同樣在今天的電話會議上，我們可能會討論某些公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計原則財務指標與最直接可比較的公認會計原則財務指標之間的差異的調節可以在收益發布中找到。今天與我在一起的有總裁兼營運長約翰‧加特林 (John Ga特林)；和財務長喬納森斯坦。

I'll now turn the call over to John Gatling.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰·加特林。

Thanks, Jennifer. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Hess Midstream's third-quarter 2024 conference call. Today, I'll discuss our third-quarter performance and review Hess Corporation's results and outlook for the Bakken. Jonathan will then review our financial results and guidance.

謝謝，珍妮佛。大家下午好，歡迎參加 Hess Midstream 2024 年第三季電話會議。今天，我將討論我們第三季的業績，並回顧赫斯公司的業績和巴肯的前景。然後喬納森將審查我們的財務業績和指導。

In the third quarter, Hess Midstream continued to deliver strong operating and financial performance with throughput volumes averaging 419 million cubic foot per day for gas processing, 122,000 barrels of oil per day for group terminaling, and 128,000 barrels of water per day for water gathering. As guided, throughputs remained relatively stable compared to the second quarter, primarily due to planned maintenance activity at the Little Missouri 4 gas plant, which was successfully completed in the third quarter. Aside from the planned maintenance, our system availability remained high and gas capture continued to be strong in the quarter.

第三季度，赫斯中游持續保持強勁的營運和財務業績，天然氣加工吞吐量平均為每天 4.19 億立方英尺，集團碼頭每天吞吐量為 122,000 桶，集水每天吞吐量為 128,000 桶。根據指導，與第二季度相比，吞吐量保持相對穩定，這主要是由於小密蘇裡 4 天然氣廠的計劃維護活動已於第三季度成功完成。除了計劃內的維護外，我們的系統可用性仍然很高，本季氣體捕獲量繼續強勁。

Now turning to Hess upstream highlights. Earlier today, Hess reported third quarter net production for the Bakken averaged 206,000 barrels of oil equipment per day, which was above the high end of their guidance range of 200,000 to 205,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Excluding percentage of proceeds volumes, as expected, Hess production was relatively flat in the third quarter compared to the second quarter.

現在轉向赫斯上游亮點。今天早些時候，赫斯報告稱，第三季度巴肯石油設備平均淨產量為每天 206,000 桶石油當量，高於其每日 200,000 至 205,000 桶油當量的指導範圍上限。正如預期的那樣，不計收益百分比，赫斯第三季產量與第二季相比相對持平。

Hess anticipates Bakken net production to be in the range of 200,000 to 205,000 barrels of oil per day in the fourth quarter, primarily reflecting lower expected volumes received under percentage of proceeds contracts and the impact of wildfires in North Dakota.

Hess 預計第四季度巴肯石油淨產量將在每天 20 萬至 20.5 萬桶石油之間，這主要反映了收益合約百分比下的預期產量下降以及北達科他州野火的影響。

Hess reiterated its plans to continue to run a four-rig program in the Bakken. Turning to Hess Midstream guidance, we're reaffirming our previously announced 2024 throughput guidance. For full year 2024, we're forecasting gas processing volumes to average between 405 million and 415 million cubic foot per day, crude terminaling volumes to average between 120,000 and 130,000 barrels of oil per day, and water gathering volumes to average between 115,000 and 125,000 barrels of water per day.

赫斯重申其計劃繼續在巴肯進行四鑽機計畫。談到赫斯中游指導，我們重申先前宣布的 2024 年吞吐量指導。2024 年全年，我們預測天然氣加工量平均為每天 4.05 億至 4.15 億立方英尺，原油碼頭量平均為每天 120,000 至 130,000 桶石油，集水量平均為 115,000 至 125,000 桶每天桶水。

We expect to grow throughputs by approximately 10% across our oil and gas systems in 2024 compared to 2023 in line with guidance. Our growth continues to be driven by Hess's development activity and a continued focus on gas capture, partially offset by the fourth quarter -- in the fourth quarter by the October wildfires.

根據指導，我們預計 2024 年我們的石油和天然氣系統的吞吐量將比 2023 年增長約 10%。我們的成長繼續受到 Hess 的開發活動和對天然氣捕獲的持續關注的推動，第四季度的成長被 10 月的野火部分抵消。

Now turning to Hess Midstream's 2024 capital program, we continue to make excellent progress on our 2024 capital plans and are focused on supporting Hess and third-party development in the Bakken. As guided, capital expenditures increased in the third quarter as construction activities continued on our multiyear projects to build two new compressor stations and associated gathering pipelines.

現在轉向赫斯中游的 2024 年資本計劃，我們繼續在 2024 年資本計劃上取得出色進展，並專注於支持赫斯和巴肯的第三方開發。按照指導，隨著我們多年專案的建設活動繼續進行，以建造兩個新的壓縮機站和相關的集輸管道，第三季的資本支出增加。

Engineering and planning continued for our 125 million cubic foot per day greenfield gas processing plant. Construction of the gas plant is planned to start in 2025 and is expected to be online in 2027. We expect capital expenditures for the full year of 2024 to be approximately $270 million (sic - see press release, "$275 million"), reflecting faster Hess drilling and the continued execution of our multiyear projects in support of Hess's expected production growth.

我們繼續對每天 1.25 億立方英尺的新建天然氣加工廠進行工程和規劃。該天然氣廠計劃於 2025 年開始建設，預計於 2027 年上線。我們預計2024 年全年的資本支出約為2.7 億美元（原文如此- 請參閱新聞稿，“2.75 億美元”），反映出Hess 鑽探速度加快以及我們為支持Hess 預期產量增長而持續執行的多年項目。

In summary, we remain focused on executing our operational priorities and safely delivering our growth strategy, which will continue to drive sustainable cash flow generation and the potential to return additional capital to shareholders.

總而言之，我們仍然專注於執行我們的營運優先事項並安全地實施我們的成長策略，這將繼續推動可持續的現金流量產生和向股東返還額外資本的潛力。

I'll now turn the call over to Jonathan to review our financial results and guidance.

我現在將把電話轉給喬納森，以審查我們的財務表現和指導。

Thanks, John, and good afternoon, everyone. We continue to execute a financial strategy that prioritizes return of capital to shareholders with a demonstrated track record of differentiated shareholder returns.

謝謝約翰，大家下午好。我們繼續執行財務策略，優先考慮向股東回報資本，並擁有差異化股東回報的良好記錄。

Since the beginning of 2021, we have returned $1.85 billion to shareholders through accretive repurchases. In addition to the combination of our 5% targeted annual distribution growth and nine distribution level increases, following each repurchase, we have increased our distribution per Class A share by over 50% since 2021 and by over 10% in 2024 yearn to date on an annualized basis.

自 2021 年初以來，我們已透過增值回購向股東返還 18.5 億美元。除了我們5% 的目標年度分配成長和九次分配水準增加之外，每次回購後，我們還將A 類股的每股分配自2021 年以來增加了50% 以上，並在2024 年迄今為止增加了10% 以上。

As a result, our total shareholder return yield is one of the highest of our midstream peers. Furthermore, our leverage of approximately 3.2 times adjusted EBITDA is one of the lowest among our peers, highlighting our differentiability to deliver significant shareholder returns while also maintaining balance sheet strength.

因此，我們的股東總回報率是中游同行中最高的之一。此外，我們調整後 EBITDA 的槓桿率約為 3.2 倍，是同業中最低的之一，突顯了我們在提供可觀股東回報的同時保持資產負債表實力的差異化能力。

In January, we announced that we expect to generate greater than $1.25 billion of financial flexibility to 2026 for incremental shareholder returns, including potential unit repurchases. Utilizing this capacity, year to date in 2024, we have completed $300 million of unit repurchases including our recent repurchase in September of $100 million, that was a creative on both an adjusted free cash flow per Class A share basis and an earnings per Class A share basis.

一月份，我們宣布，預計到 2026 年將產生超過 12.5 億美元的財務靈活性，以增加股東回報，包括潛在的單位回購。利用這項能力，到2024 年為止，我們已經完成了3 億美元的單位回購，其中包括我們最近在9 月份回購的1 億美元，這對於調整後的每股A 類股自由現金流和每股A 類股收益而言都是一項創新份額基礎。

As we have done in the past, our third-quarter distribution increase included our targeted 5% annual growth per Class A share and an additional increase utilizing the excess adjusted free cash flow available for distributions following the repurchase. As a result, on an annualized basis, our 2024 distribution per Class A share growth of over 10% is significantly above our targeted 5% annual growth through 2026.

正如我們過去所做的那樣，我們第三季的分配成長包括每股 A 類股 5% 的年度成長目標，以及利用回購後可用於分配的超額調整後自由現金流的額外成長。因此，以年化計算，我們 2024 年 A 類股的分配成長率將超過 10%，遠高於我們到 2026 年 5% 的年增長率目標。

Following the unit repurchase, we expect to continue to have more than $1.25 billion of financial flexibility through 2026, that can be used for continued execution of return of capital framework including potential ongoing unit repurchases.

單位回購後，我們預計到 2026 年將繼續擁有超過 12.5 億美元的財務彈性，可用於繼續執行資本回報框架，包括潛在的持續單位回購。

Turning to our results, for the third quarter, net income was $165 million compared to $160 million for the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $287 million compared to $276 million for the second quarter. The increase in adjusted EBITDA relative to the second quarter was primarily tribunal to the following: excluding pass through revenues and the onetime $8 million reduction that was included in second-quarter results, total revenues increased by approximately $3 million, primarily driven by higher throughput volumes resulting in segment revenue changes as follows.

談到我們的業績，第三季的淨利潤為 1.65 億美元，而第二季的淨利潤為 1.6 億美元。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.87 億美元，而第二季為 2.76 億美元。調整後EBITDA 相對於第二季的成長主要歸因於以下因素：不包括轉嫁收入和第二季業績中包含的一次性減少800 萬美元，總收入增加了約300 萬美元，主要是由於吞吐量增加導致分部收入變動如下。

Gathering revenues increased by approximately $3 million. Processing revenues increased by approximately $1 million. And terminaling revenues decreased by approximately $1 million. Total cost and expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization pass through costs and net of our proportional share of LM4 earnings were flat relative to the prior quarter, resulting in adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of $287 million.

收集收入增加了約 300 萬美元。加工收入增加了約 100 萬美元。終端收入減少了約 100 萬美元。總成本和費用（不包括折舊和攤提轉嫁成本以及我們在 LM4 收益中所佔的比例份額）與上一季持平，導致第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.87 億美元。

Our gross adjusted EBITDA margin for the third quarter was maintained at approximately 80%, above our 75% target, highlighting our continued strong operating leverage. Third-quarter capital expenditures were approximately $97 million. And net interest, excluding amortization of deferred finance costs, was approximately $49 million, resulting in adjusted free cash flow of approximately $141 million. We had a drawn balance of $30 million on a revolving credit facility at quarter end.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 毛利率維持在 80% 左右，高於 75% 的目標，凸顯了我們持續強勁的營運槓桿。第三季資本支出約 9,700 萬美元。扣除遞延財務成本攤銷後的淨利息約為 4,900 萬美元，調整後的自由現金流量約為 1.41 億美元。季度末我們的循環信貸額度有 3000 萬美元的提款餘額。

Turning to guidance, for the fourth quarter, we expect net income to be approximately $170 million to $185 million and adjusted EBITA to be approximately $295 million to $310 million. This represents an approximate 5% increase in adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint compared with the third quarter of 2024, supported by growing throughput volumes partially offset by volume impact from power losses due to the October 2024 wildfires as well as higher operating and G&A expenses from expectations of a continued active maintenance program and higher anticipated allocations under omnibus and succumbent agreements.

談到指導，我們預計第四季淨利潤約為 1.7 億至 1.85 億美元，調整後的 EBITA 約為 2.95 億至 3.1 億美元。這意味著與2024 年第三季相比，調整後EBITDA 中位數成長了約5%，這得益於吞吐量的成長，但2024 年10 月野火造成的電力損失以及營運和一般管理費用高於預期所造成的吞吐量影響部分抵消了這一影響。

Looking ahead through 2026, we continue to expect approximately 10% annual growth in oil and gas volumes, supporting a greater than 10% growth per year in adjusted EBITDA from 2024. With stable CapEx through 2026, we expect adjusted free cash flow to go greater than 10% per year, in excess of our 5% targeted distribution per Class A share growth. That together with capacity, as our leverage falls below 2.5 times EBITDA, supports greater than $1.25 billion of financial flexibility that can be utilized for shareholder returns including potential continued unit repurchases.

展望 2026 年，我們繼續預期石油和天然氣產量將每年增長約 10%，從而支持從 2024 年起調整後 EBITDA 每年增長超過 10%。到 2026 年，資本支出保持穩定，我們預計調整後的自由現金流每年將增加 10% 以上，超過我們 A 類股成長 5% 的目標分配。隨著我們的槓桿率降至 2.5 倍 EBITDA 以下，再加上產能，支持超過 12.5 億美元的財務靈活性，可用於股東回報，包括潛在的持續單位回購。

And as a reminder, in January, we'll be setting our 2027 MVCs and providing guidance to 2027.

提醒一下，我們將在 1 月制定 2027 年 MVC 並提供 2027 年指導。

In summary, we are very pleased to have delivered additional incremental return of capital to Hess Midstream shareholders and look forward to a visible trajectory of growth in our operational and financial metrics that underpin our unique and differentiated financial strategy with a focus on consistent and ongoing return of capital to our shareholders.

總之，我們很高興為 Hess Midstream 股東提供了額外的增量資本回報，並期待我們的營運和財務指標出現明顯的成長軌跡，以支撐我們獨特和差異化的財務策略，重點關註一致和持續的回報為我們的股東提供資本。

This concludes my remarks. We'll be happy to answer any questions. I will now turn the call over to the operator.

我的發言到此結束。我們很樂意回答任何問題。我現在將把電話轉給接線生。

(Operator Instructions) Naomi Marfatia, UBS.

（操作員說明）Naomi Marfatia，UBS。

Hi. Good afternoon. Appreciate the prepared remarks. My first question is on sponsorship appetite. A few weeks ago, [Hess M] announced the final secondary of the year. Well, I know it's early to probably assume what the sponsors may or may not do. Curious on your thought on the sponsorship appetite, given that GIP now own 15% of Hess M and Hess owns 38% with the pending module. Do you see an opportunity set to buy back from sponsors going forward or if we should be thinking about anything outside as it relates to your financial flexibility goals?

你好。午安.感謝準備好的發言。我的第一個問題是關於贊助意願。幾週前，[Hess M] 宣布了今年最後的中學。嗯，我知道現在猜測贊助商可能會做什麼或不會做什麼還為時過早。鑑於 GIP 現在擁有 Hess M 15% 的股份，而 Hess 擁有待定模組的 38% 股份，很好奇您對贊助意願的看法。您是否認為未來有機會從贊助商回購，或者我們是否應該考慮與您的財務彈性目標相關的外部因素？

Okay. Hi. Thanks for the question. So yes, in terms of -- I mean, I think, first of all, in terms of secondaries, they continue to be demand driven from investors. And then GIP will evaluate that demand relative to their disciplined view on value of Hess Midstream. There's no preset pace to that. There's no change in strategy relative to that. And I would also highlight that the 90-day lockup period that was in the recent transaction would take us just about to the end of 2024.

好的。你好。謝謝你的提問。所以，是的，就——我的意思是，我認為，首先，就二級市場而言，它們仍然是由投資者的需求所驅動的。然後 GIP 將根據他們對 Hess Midstream 價值的嚴格看法來評估這項需求。沒有預設的節奏。與此相關的策略沒有改變。我還要強調的是，最近交易中的 90 天鎖定期將持續到 2024 年底。

In terms of our return of capital program, that's really not a mechanism for sponsors to change ownership levels. It's really part of our return of capital program that we purchase are part of that and really leveraging the financial flexibility that we have, the greater than $1.25 billion that we talked about. And we expect to continue to execute that program.

就我們的資本回報計劃而言，這實際上並不是發起人改變所有權水準的機制。這確實是我們資本回報計劃的一部分，我們購買的資金是其中的一部分，並且真正利用了我們所擁有的財務靈活性，即我們談到的超過 12.5 億美元。我們希望繼續執行該計劃。

In the past, as you're looking forward, we haven't included the public in our repurchases because we have been simultaneously working on the goal of raising liquidity in Hess M. And that has really helped. Many investors have taken advantage of the secondaries to establish positions in the stock. And the way that this is -- they've been set up, that's also generally more accretive to the public as their ownership slightly increases, very small, but slightly increases as a result of each repurchase.

過去，正如您所期望的那樣，我們沒有將公眾納入回購範圍，因為我們一直在同時努力實現提高 Hess M 流動性的目標。許多投資者利用二級市場建立了股票部位。他們的設立方式通常對公眾來說也更有利，因為他們的所有權略有增加，非常小，但由於每次回購而略有增加。

But certainly, going forward, as we look forward, we will continue to evaluate, including the public. But again, repurchases are really part of our return of capital program, not really separate from secondaries, which are really more mechanism for ownership changes for the sponsors again, demand driven. But really in terms of return of capital program, we'll continue to execute that leveraging the $1.25 billion in capacity that we have.

但當然，展望未來，我們將繼續評估，包括公眾。但同樣，回購實際上是我們資本回報計劃的一部分，與二級市場並沒有真正分開，這實際上是贊助商再次所有權變更的更多機制，是需求驅動的。但實際上就資本回報計劃而言，我們將繼續利用我們擁有的 12.5 億美元的能力來執行該計劃。

Great. Thanks. And then maybe just to follow up on the long-term outlook in Bakken, we've seen a lot of activities recently in the basin. How should we think about third-party volume mix going forward? Can you talk about how Hess M is thinking about anything strategically different than it did in the past?

偉大的。謝謝。也許只是為了跟進巴肯的長期前景，我們最近在該盆地看到了很多活動。我們該如何考慮未來第三方的銷售組合？您能談談 Hess M 是如何考慮與過去不同的策略的嗎？

Yeah, thank you for the follow-up question. Overall, our forecast of approximately 10% third-party volume still remains our long-term outlook. We do continue to see opportunities to capture additional third-party volumes. I think as we look at our strategic footprint, we're always looking for ways to get the maximum utilization out of that infrastructure that's in the ground.

是的，謝謝你的後續問題。總體而言，我們對第三方銷量約 10% 的預測仍然是我們的長期前景。我們確實繼續看到獲得更多第三方銷售的機會。我認為，當我們審視我們的策略足跡時，我們一直在尋找方法來最大限度地利用地下基礎設施。

We have a very good footprint that sits on top of really good rock. So from our perspective, we're definitely well positioned to capture additional third-party volumes. I would say, we would continue to maintain the same strategy we've had, which is capture it when we can and when that opportunity is there. But our primary objective is to make sure that we're supporting Hess's production growth going into the future and then just looking for those incremental third-party opportunities that are out there that we continue to capture.

我們擁有非常好的足跡，位於非常好的岩石之上。因此，從我們的角度來看，我們絕對有能力獲得更多的第三方銷售。我想說，我們將繼續維持我們已經採取的相同策略，即在我們可以並且有機會時抓住它。但我們的主要目標是確保我們支持赫斯未來的產量成長，然後尋找我們繼續抓住的增量第三方機會。

Jackie Koletas, Goldman Sachs.

傑基·科萊塔斯，高盛。

Hi. Thanks for the questions. Just wanted to start on the wildfires, so how much of that was an impact to -- or assuming an impact the cost versus volumes in the fourth quarter? And on volumes, is that hitting one segment more than the other or does this headwind more so flow through the entire footprint?

你好。感謝您的提問。只是想從野火開始，那麼這對第四季的成本與銷量有多少影響——或者假設對成本與銷量的影響有多大？就銷量而言，對某一部分的打擊是否比另一部分更大，還是這種逆風流經整個足跡更多？

Yeah, thanks for the question. The impact is going to primarily be on the volume side. There is some cost, but I would say it's relatively small in the grand scheme of things. The volume impact, there was about a week-long impact associated with power outages related to the fires, particularly in the northwestern portion of the state.

是的，謝謝你的提問。影響將主要體現在數量方面。雖然有一些成本，但我想說，從整體來看，成本相對較小。就容量影響而言，火災造成的停電造成了大約一周的影響，特別是在該州的西北部地區。

I think the response from the community and the firefighters in the area was just phenomenal. I think everybody just rallied together and responded really well. In addition, the co-ops that provide the power to us also responded really well as well. And we're able to get power back up in the area. But it's primarily going to be a bit of a constraint on electricity to well pads, electricity to compressor stations that are impacting the volumes that came through the system.

我認為該地區社區和消防員的反應非常出色。我認為每個人都團結在一起並做出了很好的反應。此外，為我們提供電力的合作社也做出了很好的回應。我們能夠在該地區恢復供電。但這主要會對井場的電力和壓縮機站的電力產生一些限制，從而影響通過系統的容量。

And to your question around how far does this go through the entire system, so when the wells are down, obviously, you're not getting any oil or gas. Again, it was -- impact was several days and then there's a recovery period coming back from the several day of power disruptions. So overall, it would flow through the system, it would impact oil gas, and ultimately, water volumes coming through our system. But again, I think the recovery has been really strong and we're feeling like the remainder of the fourth quarter should be strong.

至於你的問題是，這會穿過整個系統多遠，所以當油井關閉時，顯然，你不會得到任何石油或天然氣。再說一次，影響持續了幾天，然後有一個恢復期，從幾天的電力中斷中恢復過來。總的來說，它會流經系統，影響油氣，最終影響流經我們系統的水量。但我再次認為，復甦非常強勁，我們感覺第四季剩餘時間應該會很強勁。

Great. Thank you so much for the color. And just as a quick follow up, excluding that impact, noticed that you did lower the midpoint of guidance for 2024. Could you walk through the rest of the puts and takes of what could get you to the bottom and the top of that range? And if you were to outperform the updated guidance, what if any could be that tail wind for the fourth-quarter EBITDA?

偉大的。非常感謝你的顏色。正如快速跟進一樣，排除這種影響，我們注意到您確實降低了 2024 年指導的中點。您能否詳細介紹其餘的看跌期權和看跌期權，哪些可以讓您到達該範圍的底部和頂部？如果您的表現要優於更新後的指導，那麼第四季度 EBITDA 的順風會怎麼樣呢？

Okay. Sure. So let me start by just emphasizing the growth that we have. Certainly, this year, if you just look Q1 to Q4, 10% increase in EBITDA. Full-year basis, 2023 versus 2024 EBITDA up 12% approximately. And then, even with the wildfires and all the, what John described, we're still talking about 5% growth in EBITDA just in Q4 alone relative to Q3.

好的。當然。首先我要強調一下我們的成長。當然，今年，如果你只看第一季到第四季度，EBITDA 成長了 10%。以全年為基礎，2023 年 EBITDA 較 2024 年成長約 12%。然後，即使發生了野火和約翰所描述的所有情況，我們仍然在談論僅第四季度的 EBITDA 相對於第三季度就增長了 5%。

So really the impact of the wildfires, as John said, it's a volume impact, but it's really reducing our volume growth and so more limiting it. But we're still having volume growth, going forward. The other things we talked about on the call is to continue active maintenance program. And then second would be the allocations. So the active -- on the maintenance program there, historically, if you look back a number of years, probably seasonally Q4 was a bit lower on maintenance. The team has really worked to optimize to be able to do more maintenance in Q4. That really helps us mitigate against potential severe winter weather conditions that we typically see in Q1. So that's a good thing.

正如約翰所說，野火的影響確實是對數量的影響，但它確實減少了我們的數量增長，因此更加限制了它。但未來我們的銷量仍會成長。我們在電話中討論的其他事情是繼續主動維護計劃。其次是分配。因此，從歷史上看，在維護計劃上，如果你回顧幾年，可能季節性第四季度的維護工作會稍微低一些。該團隊確實致力於優化，以便能夠在第四季度進行更多維護。這確實有助於我們緩解第一季通常會出現的潛在惡劣冬季天氣狀況。所以這是一件好事。

And then allocations are typically -- really, we could have variability in allocations through the year and accruals for benefits and bonuses. But the important thing is that in terms of Q4, really continue to grow about 5%. In terms of the range, as you highlighted, we do have a range there. And really, that leads to what is the range or what are drivers. And it really falls from that. First, it's weather contingencies, even though we are trying to get more maintenance done in the fourth quarter. Obviously, the fourth quarter can have some weather impacts in North Dakota. We'll see how that plays out.

然後，分配通常是——實際上，我們全年的分配以及應計福利和獎金可能會有變化。但重要的是，就Q4而言，確實持續成長5%左右。就範圍而言，正如您所強調的，我們確實有一個範圍。實際上，這會導致範圍或驅動力是什麼。它確實由此而下降。首先，這是天氣意外事件，儘管我們正努力在第四季完成更多維護工作。顯然，第四季度可能會對北達科他州產生一些天氣影響。我們將看看結果如何。

As I mentioned, the maintenance program, a lot to do. So we'll see the progresses through the year end. We'll have final allocations, as I mentioned, on the final benefits of bonus accruals. And then of course, just normal volume variability based on third-party volumes and number of Hess wells online in performance. So those are kind of the range of the impacts that we'll see in -- each of those come out will depend on where we end up in the range. But, again, really emphasizing 5% increase in Q4 and then no change for our long-term guidance, moving into as we look forward to 2026 -- 2025 next year and then 2026, continued volume growth, approximately 10% annualized growth through 2026. And then, EBITDA growing 10% per year through 2026.

正如我所提到的，維護計劃有很多工作要做。因此，我們將在年底看到進展。正如我所提到的，我們將對應計獎金的最終收益進行最終分配。當然，只是基於第三方產量和線上赫斯井數量的正常產量變化。這些就是我們將看到的影響範圍——每一個影響的出現都將取決於我們最終在該範圍內的位置。但是，再次強調，第四季成長5%，然後我們的長期指引不會發生變化，進入2026 年——明年2025 年，然後是2026 年，銷量持續成長，到2026 年年化成長率約為10 % 。然後，到 2026 年，EBITDA 每年成長 10%。

So a lot of volume growth ahead of us and growth in EBITDA ahead of us in this quarter, and then continuing forward.

因此，本季我們將迎來大量銷售成長和 EBITDA 成長，然後繼續向前發展。

Doug Irwin, Citi.

道格歐文，花旗銀行。

Hey. Thanks for the question. Maybe just to follow up on some of the growth in '25 and '26. I think as talked about some accelerated drilling activity in TX upstream. I'm just curious what that means for midstream and 25. If you're maybe pulling forward some growth into ‘25 relative to the initial expectations when you first laid out that 10% a year growth outlook.

嘿。謝謝你的提問。也許只是為了跟進 25 和 26 年的一些增長。我認為正如所討論的，德克薩斯州上游的一些加速鑽探活動。我只是好奇這對中游和25意味著什麼。如果您可能將相對於您首次提出每年 10% 的成長前景時的最初預期的成長預測為 25 歐元。

Yeah. So I think, overall, from a drilling and completion perspective, Hess is absolutely drilling and completing wells a bit faster than anticipated, which is a good story. That's definitely a tailwind from a volume growth perspective. I would say, we increased our MVCs going into January. We've had some increases through the year as we've guided higher in that trajectory.

是的。因此，我認為，總體而言，從鑽井和完井的角度來看，赫斯的鑽井和完井速度絕對比預期快一點，這是一個好故事。從銷售成長的角度來看，這絕對是一個順風車。我想說的是，我們在 1 月增加了 MVC。我們在這一年中取得了一些成長，因為我們在這一軌跡上指引得更高。

From our perspective, we feel like that the pace that Hess is drilling at supports our 10% volume -- approximate 10% volume growth through 2026 and just sets us up to have more certainty in the volume delivery going into 2025. So again, we think the combination of the Hess performance from a drilling perspective, but also the infrastructure bill that we've got to support that growth. We feel like that's positioning us really well as we roll into '25 with that continued approximate 10% volume growth through '26.

從我們的角度來看，我們認為 Hess 的鑽探速度支持我們 10% 的產量——到 2026 年大約 10% 的產量增長，並且讓我們對 2025 年的產量交付有更多的確定性。因此，我們再次認為，從鑽探角度來看，赫斯的表現與我們必須支持這種成長的基礎設施法案相結合。我們覺得這讓我們在進入 25 年時處於非常有利的位置，到 26 年銷量持續成長約 10%。

Great. That's helpful. And then maybe Hess M CapEx, I know in the past you've talked about that $250 million to $275 million being a good range going forward. But sounds like for '24. you've maybe pulled a little bit of that CapEx forward into '24. Just curious initial directional messaging on '25 CapEx. Should we expect to step down next year or are you maybe still kind of accelerating some spending next year as well?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後也許是 Hess M 資本支出，我知道您過去曾談到 2.5 億至 2.75 億美元是未來的一個不錯的範圍。但聽起來像是24年的。您可能已將部分資本支出提前至 24 年。只是關於 '25 資本支出的好奇初始定向消息。我們是否應該預計明年下台，或者您明年仍然會加速一些支出？

Yeah. No, I think our previous guidance remains the same. I think our longer-term outlook for well connects and infrastructure build remains consistent. I think you've got a little bit of a timing thing here with these multi-year projects shifting between '25 -- or '24 and '25. And then, also just making sure that the infrastructure is in place for the drilling program as Hess as Hess continues to drill its wells out, just making sure that infrastructure is in place.

是的。不，我認為我們之前的指導保持不變。我認為我們對良好連接和基礎設施建設的長期前景保持一致。我認為這些多年期項目在 25 年或 24 年和 25 年之間轉換，這對時間安排有一定的影響。然後，也要確保鑽井計畫的基礎設施到位，就像赫斯一樣，赫斯繼續鑽探油井，只是確保基礎設施到位。

So I would say there's no additional cost to this. It's really more of a timing thing shifting between the two years. I don't know, Jonathan, if there's anything else you wanted to add? Any additional color?

所以我想說這沒有額外的費用。這其實更像是兩年之間的時間變化。喬納森，我不知道你還有什麼要補充的嗎？還有什麼額外的顏色嗎？

No, I think that was -- in terms of -- you really think about these as multiyear projects. Two years, we've talked about the gap plan. But actually, John mentioned that in his prepared remarks, potentially starting next year again, that would obviously be a multiyear project. So really, kind of look at '24, '25, '26, and then we'll give '27 even kind of guidance in terms of kind of pace, at least, in January. So look at those as kind of multiyear projects. So there can be some give and takes, if you will, as John said, between the years -- across those three years. And certainly, once we have the gas plant, that takes you right to '27.

不，我認為，就而言，你確實將這些視為多年專案。兩年來，我們一直在討論差距計畫。但實際上，約翰在他準備好的演講中提到，可能會在明年再次開始，這顯然將是一個多年的計畫。所以說真的，看看“24”、“25”、“26”，然後我們將在“27”方面提供指導，至少在一月份是這樣。因此，請將這些視為多年項目。因此，如果你願意，正如約翰所說，在這三年之間，可以有一些讓步。當然，一旦我們有了天然氣工廠，那就可以帶你到 27 世紀。

But on a total capital basis, as John said, across that period of time, really the same, just a shifting of a little bit more, maybe one year, a little bit less than it, may not be one year to the next, maybe two years and then one year. But just among those, call it, three years, at least in 2026, certainly, you'll have some movement just as the projects themselves, the execution changes.

但在總資本基礎上，正如約翰所說，在那段時間裡，實際上是一樣的，只是多一點點，也許一年，少一點點，可能不是一年到下一年，也許兩年，然後一年。但就其中而言，三年，至少在 2026 年，當然，正如專案本身、執行的變化一樣，你也會有一些變化。

Noah Katz, J.P. Morgan.

諾亞·卡茨，摩根大通。

Hey. Thanks for the question. First, I wanted to touch on the trends you're seeing in the Bakken at large currently. And what you -- what is your expectation for future base and growth across all the value streams in the long term? Thanks.

嘿。謝謝你的提問。首先，我想談談您目前在巴肯看到的整體趨勢。從長遠來看，您對所有價值流的未來基礎和成長的期望是什麼？謝謝。

Sure. I think consistent with what the North Dakota Pipeline Authority has talked about the Department of Mineral Resources and the North Dakota Industrial Commission, I think oil is trending flattish. It's where we see the volumes going from an oil perspective. As expected, gas and GORs will continue to increase over time. That's just kind of a natural occurring thing that's expected to happen.

當然。我認為，與北達科他州管道管理局關於礦產資源部和北達科他州工業委員會的言論一致，我認為石油趨勢持平。這是我們從石油角度看到的交易量。正如預期的那樣，天然氣和 GOR 將隨著時間的推移而繼續增加。這只是一種自然發生的事情，預計會發生。

So we do expect gas volumes to continue to increase. I think, [Justin Crested] shown some gas growth from the range of about 3.5 bcf up to approximately 5 bcf of gas. So we would continue to anticipate the basin showing that trajectory of growth. From the Hess perspective, we continue to see growth across all of our systems, oil, gas, and water systems. Gas is definitely the area that's growing a little bit faster than the oil. But overall. the systems are growing in that kind of 10% range that we've talked about through '26.

因此，我們確實預計天然氣產量將持續增加。我認為，[Justin Crested] 顯示出一些氣體增長，範圍從大約 3.5 bcf 到大約 5 bcf 的氣體。因此，我們將繼續預期該盆地將呈現出這種成長軌跡。從 Hess 的角度來看，我們的所有系統（石油、天然氣和水系統）都在持續成長。天然氣絕對是成長速度比石油快一點的領域。但總體而言。這些系統正在以我們在 26 年討論過的 10% 的速度成長。

Thanks for that. And as a follow up, you know, beyond the '26 MVCs, can you frame how we should think about the 2027 MVCs with the processing plant coming online? Anything that would be helpful. Thanks.

謝謝你。作為後續行動，您知道，除了 26 年的 MVC 之外，您能否框架我們應該如何考慮加工廠上線的 2027 年 MVC？任何有幫助的事。謝謝。

I think we'll give our MVCs in January, so really, nothing really to say at this point. What I would say is just looking at the 2026 MVC, obviously, that puts us right about if it implies -- gross it out there, implies that will be approximately 500 million cubic feet per day.

我想我們將在 1 月提供 MVC，所以實際上，此時沒有什麼可說的。我想說的是，只要看看 2026 年 MVC，顯然，這讓我們正確地理解了它是否意味著——粗略計算，意味著每天將大約有 5 億立方英尺。

So as we move into 2027, we expect to continue to see some growth there. Although, really think of the gas plant as really 125 million cubic feet per day, as we've talked about, really supporting growth through really the rest of the decade. So it may not all be in one year. It's going to really give us the ability to continue to grow really, really just continuously through the rest of the decade, which is quite amazing. But we'll give more in January. Nothing to really say at this point.

因此，當我們進入 2027 年時，我們預計將繼續看到一些成長。儘管如此，正如我們所討論的，天然氣廠每天的產量確實為 1.25 億立方英尺，這確實支持了這十年餘下時間的成長。所以這可能不會在一年內全部完成。這將真正讓我們有能力在接下來的十年中持續不斷地成長，這是非常驚人的。但我們會在一月提供更多。此時此刻沒什麼好說的。

Praneeth Satish, Wells Fargo.

普拉尼思‧薩蒂什，富國銀行。

Thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. I guess, just maybe going back to the growth outlook -- volume growth outlook for 2025. I mean, I think you quoted some of Justin's numbers. I guess I'm trying to compare that against the 10% volume growth outlook that you provided. Obviously, Hess is drilling. But on the third-party side of things, if we see flat oil volumes and maybe a little bit a positive number on the gas side, does that impact at all that 10% guidance that you put out there for '25? And also, as we think about the volume cadence, would you expect it to be kind of 10% in '25 and '26 or kind of more lumpy?

謝謝。大家下午好。我想，也許我們可以回到成長前景——2025 年的銷售成長前景。我的意思是，我認為你引用了賈斯汀的一些數據。我想我正在嘗試將其與您提供的 10% 的銷量成長前景進行比較。顯然，赫斯正在鑽探。但在第三方方面，如果我們看到石油產量持平，天然氣方面可能有一點正數，這會影響您為 25 年提出的 10% 指引嗎？而且，當我們考慮音量節奏時，您是否預期 25 年和 26 年的音量節奏會達到 10%，或更不穩定？

Yeah. I think, overall, again, I think it's where you are in the basin and from our perspective, the rock that we're drilling, it creates that opportunity for that growth trajectory that we've been talking about, so approximate 10% through 2026. I would say that the third-party volumes are really those add-on opportunities that we've got out there. I mean, we've obviously had about 10% third parties. We expect to continue to have about 10% third parties. You know, Hess is going to grow at a faster pace than the base on average.

是的。我認為，總的來說，我認為這就是盆地中的位置，從我們的角度來看，我們正在鑽探的岩石，它為我們一直在談論的增長軌跡創造了機會，所以大約 10％ 2026 年。我想說，第三方卷實際上是我們已經提供的附加機會。我的意思是，我們顯然有大約 10% 的第三方。我們預計將繼續擁有約 10% 的第三方。你知道，赫斯的成長速度將會比基地的平均速度更快。

And I would say the rock that we're drilling in that the Hess Midstream infrastructure sitting on top of creates an opportunity for a growth trajectory. That's higher than the basin average. I would say that on the third-party side, we still see a lot of opportunity to capture those volumes. There's still a lot of drilling activity out there. And I think we're always looking to bring in that incremental volume into our system and just maximize the utilization of that.

我想說的是，我們正在鑽探的岩石位於赫斯中游基礎設施之上，為成長軌跡創造了機會。這高於流域平均水平。我想說，在第三方方面，我們仍然看到很多機會來獲取這些數量。那裡仍然有很多鑽探活動。我認為我們一直在尋求將增量引入我們的系統並最大限度地利用它。

So I think, we've kind of indicated that we're planning to build the gas plant that's showing a longer-term bullish look towards volume growth. I think there's also a third-party component to that as well. That gets us a chance to actually go and provide services to other third parties in addition to providing the support to Hess on its very attractive growth trajectory over the next several years.

所以我認為，我們已經表明我們計劃建造一座天然氣工廠，該工廠對銷售成長表現出長期看漲的態度。我認為還有一個第三方組件。這讓我們有機會真正去向其他第三方提供服務，此外還為 Hess 在未來幾年非常有吸引力的成長軌跡上提供支援。

Got you. That's helpful and.

明白你了。這很有幫助並且。

Hey, Praneeth. Just one -- just modeling point of view, we did update most of our MVCs last year. So to your question on the lumpiness, if you will, the trajectory, so most of those are set now at 80% of expected volumes. So if you look at that, you can see that on the gas side, it's pretty much approximately 10% per year while on the oil side, it's a bit more growth in '25 and a little bit less in '26.

嘿，普拉尼斯。僅一點——僅從建模的角度來看，我們去年更新了大部分 MVC。所以，對於你關於塊度的問題，如果你願意的話，軌跡，所以現在大部分都設定為預期量的 80%。因此，如果你看一下，你會發現，在天然氣方面，每年的成長率大約是 10%，而在石油方面，25 年的成長略多，26 年的成長略少一些。

Got you. Okay. And then, I guess I just wanted to check in on M&A, where that stands. Obviously, you're in somewhat of an autopilot here in terms of the consistency of the capital return. But yeah, I guess, just where does M&A fall in your financial flexibility stack that you have out there?

明白你了。好的。然後，我想我只是想了解一下併購情況。顯然，就資本回報的一致性而言，您在某種程度上處於自動駕駛狀態。但是，是的，我想，併購在您現有的財務靈活性堆疊中處於什麼位置？

So maybe, I'll talk about the opportunity first and then Jonathan can talk a little bit about the financial side of it. So from the opportunity perspective, our strategy really remains the same. We continue to look and we're always looking for those strategic bolt-ons that strengthen our position in the basin.

所以也許我會先談談這個機會，然後喬納森可以談談它的財務方面。因此，從機會的角度來看，我們的策略確實保持不變。我們繼續尋找，並且一直在尋找那些能夠加強我們在該盆地地位的戰略補充。

I think we're constantly on the lookout for that and we're not distracted from that. So those opportunities continue to present themselves. We continue to evaluate them and see how they incrementally add value to our system. And we'll continue to go down that -- to go down that path.

我認為我們一直在關注這一點，並且不會因此而分心。因此，這些機會不斷出現。我們繼續評估它們，看看它們如何逐漸為我們的系統增加價值。我們將繼續沿著這條路走下去。

From the standpoint of -- to a little bit back to the earlier question around capturing the volumes, obviously, Hess as our anchor and our primary customer. We're obviously very focused on providing support to Hess but we're also trying to provide support to other third-party producers in the basin as well. So from our perspective, it's really not -- there's not anything restricting us from looking at other than the strategic nature of the opportunity and where it fits in the portfolio and how it supports both Hess and our third-party customers.

從 - 回到之前關於捕獲數量的問題來看，顯然，赫斯是我們的錨和我們的主要客戶。顯然，我們非常專注於為赫斯提供支持，但我們也努力為該盆地的其他第三方生產商提供支持。因此，從我們的角度來看，這確實不是——除了機會的戰略性質、它在產品組合中的位置以及它如何支持 Hess 和我們的第三方客戶之外，沒有任何東西限制我們進行研究。

So I don't know, Jonathan, if there's anything you wanted to add on the financial flexibility side?

所以我不知道，喬納森，您在財務靈活性方面是否有什麼想要補充的？

No, that was really great. I mean, obviously we have $1.25 billion of financial flexibility that we've talked about. Part of that is from leverage relative to our conservative 3 times target and part of that is just excess free cash flow after distribution. So as John said, you know, we continue to look at bolt-ons. We're not -- we've said in the past we're not looking at any corporate M&A, but to the extent that there's bolt-on opportunities available, then, we'll evaluate those. But the bar is high relative to the growth that we have. And absent any opportunities, we'll continue to execute our and prioritize our return of capital program.

不，那真的很棒。我的意思是，顯然我們已經談到了 12.5 億美元的財務彈性。其中一部分來自相對於我們保守的 3 倍目標的槓桿，一部分只是分配後多餘的自由現金流。正如約翰所說，我們將繼續研究螺栓連接。我們過去曾說過，我們不會考慮任何企業併購，但只要有可用的補充機會，我們就會評估這些機會。但相對於我們的成長而言，門檻很高。如果沒有任何機會，我們將繼續執行並優先考慮我們的資本回報計劃。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。