家得寶 (HD) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to The Home Depot Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加家得寶 2018 年第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製。（操作員指令）

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Isabel Janci. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在，我想將會議交給 Isabel Janci。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, Christine, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today on our fourth quarter earnings call. Joining us on our call today are Craig Menear, Chairman, CEO and President; Ted Decker, Executive Vice President of Merchandising; and Carol Tomé, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services. Following our prepared remarks, the call will be open for questions. Questions will be limited to analysts and investors. (Operator Instructions) If we are unable to get to your question during the call, please call our Investor Relations department at (770) 384-2387.

謝謝你，克里斯汀，大家早安。感謝您今天參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。今天參加我們電話會議的有董事長、執行長兼總裁 Craig Menear；泰德‧德克爾 (Ted Decker)，商品銷售執行副總裁；以及財務長兼企業服務執行副總裁 Carol Tomé。在我們準備好發言之後，電話會議將開放提問。問題僅限於分析師和投資者。(操作員指示)如果我們無法在通話期間回答您的問題，請致電我們的投資者關係部 (770) 384-2387。

Before I turn the call over to Craig, let me remind you that today's press release and the presentations made by our executives include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Today's presentations will also include certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of these measures is provided on our website.

在我將電話轉給克雷格之前，請允許我提醒您，今天的新聞稿和我們高管的陳述包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素。今天的演示還將包括某些非公認會計準則指標。這些措施的協調已在我們的網站上提供。

Now let me turn the call over to Craig.

現在讓我把電話轉給克雷格。

Thank you, Isabel, and good morning, everyone. Fiscal 2018 was another record year for our business as we achieved the highest sales and net earnings in company history. Fiscal 2018 sales grew $7.3 billion to $108.2 billion, an increase of 7.2% from fiscal 2017, while diluted earnings per share grew 33.5% to $9.73.

謝謝你，伊莎貝爾，大家早安。2018 財年是我們業務又創紀錄的一年，我們實現了公司歷史上最高的銷售額和淨利。2018 財年銷售額成長 73 億美元，達 1,082 億美元，較 2017 財年成長 7.2%，每股攤薄收益成長 33.5% 至 9.73 美元。

And although fiscal 2018 was a record year for our business, our fourth quarter comp sales were slightly below our expectations as the quarter experienced some unfavorable weather. Sales for the fourth quarter were $26.5 billion, up 10.9% from last year. Comp sales were up 3.2% from last year and our U.S. comps were positive 3.7%. Diluted earnings per share were $2.09 in the fourth quarter. Internationally, Mexico posted another quarter of positive comps in local currency while Canada was essentially flat.

儘管 2018 財年是我們業務創紀錄的一年，但由於該季度遭遇了一些不利天氣，我們的第四季同店銷售額略低於我們的預期。第四季銷售額為265億美元，比去年同期成長10.9%。同店銷售額較去年同期成長 3.2%，其中美國同店銷售額成長 3.7%。第四季每股攤薄收益為 2.09 美元。從國際來看，墨西哥以當地貨幣計算的銷售額再度上漲，而加拿大的銷售額則基本持平。

As we mentioned on the last quarter's call, our fourth quarter faced tough comparisons given the prior year's approximately $400 million in hurricane-related sales that would not repeat. And we planned for this in our outlook. But as Carol will detail, what we did not plan for was the extent of the unfavorable weather we experienced in all regions throughout the quarter.

正如我們在上個季度的電話會議上提到的那樣，由於去年與颶風相關的銷售額約為 4 億美元，而且不會重演，因此我們的第四季度面臨嚴峻的比較。我們已經在展望中對此進行了規劃。但正如卡羅爾詳細說明的那樣，我們並沒有預料到整個季度所有地區都會遭遇如此嚴重的惡劣天氣。

It was cold. It was snowy. And perhaps, worst of all, it was wet. Wet weather delays projects and this was evidenced in our sales performance in the quarter. In fact, as Carol will detail, ex weather, our business performed in line with our expectations. And as Ted will discuss, both ticket and transactions grew in the quarter, and we saw growth in both Pro and DIY categories. Pro sales once again outpaced DIY sales in the quarter, and the work that we're doing to enhance the service capabilities for our Pros continues to resonate.

天氣很冷。下雪了。或許，最糟糕的是，它是濕的。潮濕的天氣導致專案延誤，這在本季的銷售業績中得到了證實。事實上，正如卡羅爾所詳述的那樣，例如天氣，我們的業務表現符合我們的預期。正如 Ted 所討論的，本季的票務和交易量均有所增長，而且我們看到 Pro 和 DIY 類別均有所增長。本季度，專業產品的銷售額再次超過了 DIY 產品的銷售額，我們為增強專業人士的服務能力所做的工作繼續產生共鳴。

I am very proud of our associates for continuing to do what they do best, serving our customers. Our merchants, store teams, supplier partners and supply chain teams did an outstanding job of delivering value and service to our customers throughout the quarter, both in stores and online. In fact, several key accomplishments took place during the quarter. We set record performances on Black Friday and during Cyber Week. Our holiday decor offering and gift center events set new all-time highs. And during the quarter, we reached a new watermark of approximately 2 billion annual visits on homedepot.com with many of these visitors indicating that their next stop is a Home Depot store.

我對我們的員工感到非常自豪，他們一直盡自己最大的努力，為我們的客戶服務。整個季度，無論是在實體店還是線上，我們的商家、商店團隊、供應商合作夥伴和供應鏈團隊都出色地為客戶提供了價值和服務。事實上，本季取得了幾項重大成就。我們在「黑色星期五」和「網路週」期間創下了紀錄。我們的節日裝飾品和禮品中心活動創下了歷史新高。本季度，homedepot.com 的年度訪問量達到了約 20 億次的新高，其中許多訪客表示他們的下一站是家得寶商店。

In fiscal 2018, we made progress with regard to the One Home Depot investment plan. But we are still in the early days of our journey. Our strategic efforts to drive and enhance interconnected customer experience through investments in both the physical and digital worlds are yielding solid returns. We also continue to focus on productivity as a virtuous cycle by leveraging technology and improving processes throughout the value chain of our business.

2018財年，我們在「一個家得寶」投資計畫方面取得了進展。但我們仍處於旅程的早期階段。我們透過在實體和數位世界的投資來推動和增強互聯客戶體驗的策略努力正在產生豐厚的回報。我們也將繼續透過利用技術和改進整個業務價值鏈中的流程來關註生產力的良性循環。

Fiscal 2018 provided a lot of great learnings and momentum that we will continue to build on in 2019. I'm particularly excited about the investments we're making for our Pros. In the quarter, we announced a consolidated go-to-market approach for our Pro customers under the banner, Home Depot Pro. And we continue to invest in a more personalized offering for our Pro customers with a new B2B website experience. We have now onboarded over 100,000 Pro customers and the reception has been positive. Our plan is for continuous enhancements with new features and capabilities. For example, in response to customer feedback, we are adding the ability for businesses to enhance account management and ordering capabilities with improved tools. Our intent is to roll out this new Pro online experience to over 1 million Pros in 2019.

2018 財年為我們帶來了許多寶貴的經驗和動力，我們將在 2019 年繼續發揚光大。我對我們為專業人士所做的投資感到特別興奮。在本季度，我們宣布以 Home Depot Pro 為品牌針對專業客戶推出綜合行銷策略。我們將持續投資，為專業客戶提供更個人化的服務，帶來全新的 B2B 網站體驗。現在，我們已擁有超過 10 萬名 Pro 客戶，反應十分正面。我們的計劃是不斷增強新特性和能力。例如，為了回應客戶的回饋，我們增加了企業透過改進的工具來增強帳戶管理和訂購功能的功能。我們的目標是在 2019 年向超過 100 萬專業人士推出這款全新的 Pro 線上體驗。

Beyond B2B personalization, we continue to make great strides in driving our digital experience. This year, we invested in our website and mobile applications, improving search capabilities, site functionality and product content. This ongoing investment in our digital properties has increased traffic and conversion. Versus prior year on a like-for-like basis, online sales grew 22.7% in the fourth quarter and 24.1% in fiscal 2018, now representing 7.9% of our total sales.

除了 B2B 個人化之外，我們還在推動數位體驗方面繼續取得長足進步。今年，我們投資了我們的網站和行動應用程序，改進了搜尋功能、網站功能和產品內容。我們對數位資產的持續投資增加了流量和轉換率。與去年同期相比，第四季線上銷售額成長 22.7%，2018 財年成長 24.1%，目前占我們總銷售額的 7.9%。

While we are seeing significant growth in our online sales, these online shoppers see the relevance of our stores as approximately 50% of our online U.S. orders are picked up in our stores, a testament to the power of our interconnected retail strategy. We continue to roll out automated lockers in our stores to make pickup -- picking up an online order easier and more convenient. To date, approximately 1,000 stores have lockers with more to come in 2019. Customer response to the lockers has been very positive as almost 94% of customers rated their locker pickup experience a 5 out of 5 stars.

我們的線上銷售額正在顯著增長，同時這些線上購物者也看到了我們商店的重要性，因為我們大約 50% 的美國線上訂單都是在我們的商店提貨的，這證明了我們互聯零售策略的強大力量。我們將繼續在門市推出自動置物櫃，讓取貨（即領取線上訂單）變得更容易、更方便。截至目前為止，約有 1,000 家商店設有儲物櫃，2019 年將會有更多商店設立儲物櫃。顧客對儲物櫃的反應非常積極，幾乎 94% 的顧客對他們的儲物櫃取貨體驗給出了 5 星評價。

We fundamentally believe that when a customer comes to one of our stores, it has to be a great experience. With our investment program, approximately 40% of our U.S. stores now have a new look and feel, and customer response has been very positive. The store investments are not just about the customer response, as we are also seeing increased associate engagement and higher productivity. Another key component of a best-in-class interconnected shopping experience centers on enhanced delivery and fulfillment options.

我們從根本上相信，當顧客來到我們的一家商店時，這一定是一次很棒的體驗。透過我們的投資計劃，我們大約 40% 的美國商店現在有了全新的外觀和感覺，而且客戶的反應非常積極。商店投資不僅關乎顧客的反應，我們也看到員工參與度和生產效率的提升。一流互聯購物體驗的另一個關鍵要素是增強的配送和履行選項。

Fiscal 2018 was the year of the pilot as we kicked off our (inaudible) [$1.2 billion] investment journey to create the fastest, most efficient delivery network for home improvement goods. We are now live with a number of these pilot facilities. We look to fiscal 2019 as a year to take what we have learned in pilot and begin the rollout that we expect to complete by 2022. As a demonstration of the confidence in the business going forward, today, our board announced a 32% increase in our quarterly dividend to $1.36 per share. The board also authorized new share repurchase program of $15 billion, replacing our existing authorization. We remain committed to maintaining disciplined capital allocation to create value for our shareholders.

2018 財年是試點年，我們啟動了（聽不清楚）[12 億美元] 的投資之旅，以創建最快、最高效的家裝產品配送網絡。我們現在已經擁有多個這樣的試點設施。我們期待 2019 財年能將我們在試點中學到的經驗運用到實際中，並開始推廣，預計在 2022 年之前完成。為了表明對未來業務的信心，今天，我們的董事會宣布將季度股息增加 32% 至每股 1.36 美元。董事會也批准了 150 億美元的新股票回購計劃，取代我們現有的授權。我們將繼續致力於保持嚴格的資本配置，為股東創造價值。

Turning to 2019 and beyond, I'm excited about the opportunities that are ahead of us. Carol will take you through the details, but we expect 2019 to be another year of growth with sales growth of approximately 3.3%, comp sales of 5% and diluted earnings per share of approximately $10.03. Our strong performance in fiscal 2018 also positions us well with respect to our 2020 financial targets. And today, we are reaffirming those targets. It's an exciting time to be part of The Home Depot. And we look forward to the work ahead as we continue our journey to create the One Home Depot experience. There's a great deal of change being introduced throughout the business. But as they always do, our associates are rising to the occasion, meeting new challenges head-on without losing the passion to serve our customers that has made The Home Depot what it is today.

展望2019年及以後，我對我們面臨的機會感到興奮。卡羅爾將向您介紹詳細信息，但我們預計 2019 年將是另一個增長年，銷售額增長約 3.3%，同店銷售額增長 5%，每股攤薄收益約為 10.03 美元。我們在 2018 財年的強勁表現也為我們實現 2020 年財務目標奠定了良好基礎。今天，我們重申這些目標。成為家得寶的一員是一件令人興奮的事。我們期待未來的工作，繼續我們的旅程，創造「一個家得寶」的體驗。整個企業正在發生巨大的變化。但一如既往，我們的員工正在迎接挑戰，同時又不失為客戶服務的熱情，正是這種熱情成就了家得寶的今天。

I want to close by thanking our associates for their hard work and dedication to our customers in the fourth quarter and throughout the year. For the second half of the year, 100% of our stores will receive Success Sharing, our bonus program for our hourly associates. We look forward to continuing our momentum in 2019.

最後，我要感謝我們的員工在第四季度以及全年的辛勤工作以及對客戶的奉獻。今年下半年，我們所有的門市都將享受「成功分享」計劃，這是我們針對小時工的獎金計劃。我們期待在 2019 年繼續保持良好勢頭。

And with that, let me turn the call over to Ted.

現在，請允許我將電話轉給泰德。

Thanks, Craig, and good morning, everyone. When we look through the unfavorable weather we experienced in the fourth quarter, we were pleased with how the business performed. Looking at our departments, comps in tools, appliances, decor, indoor garden, building materials, outdoor garden, hardware and paint were above the company average. Electrical, plumbing, flooring, millwork and kitchen and bath were positive but below the company average. Due primarily to price deflation, lighting and lumber reported low to mid-single-digit negative comps.

謝謝，克雷格，大家早安。當我們回顧第四季度經歷的不利天氣時，我們對業務表現感到滿意。縱觀我們的部門，工具、器具、裝飾、室內花園、建築材料、室外花園、五金和油漆的銷售額均高於公司平均水平。電氣、管道、地板、木製品、廚房和浴室的表現都不錯，但低於公司平均值。主要由於價格通貨緊縮，照明和木材報告了低至中等個位數的負增長。

In the fourth quarter, our average ticket increased 2.3% and comp transactions increased 0.9%. The fourth quarter finished what was a volatile year in many commodity markets, particularly lumber. For example, during the second quarter, we saw lumber prices that were more than 40% higher than they were in the year prior. These prices fell significantly during the third and fourth quarter and now sit approximately 25% below last year's prices. While this deflation pressured sales, we have seen strong unit growth as prices have come down and this unit productivity drives activity across the store.

第四季度，我們的平均票價上漲了 2.3%，同店交易量上漲了 0.9%。第四季結束了許多大宗商品市場（特別是木材市場）動盪的一年。例如，在第二季度，我們發現木材價格比去年同期上漲了 40% 以上。這些價格在第三季和第四季大幅下跌，目前比去年的價格低約 25%。雖然通貨緊縮對銷售造成壓力，但是隨著價格下降以及單位生產力推動整個商店的活動，我們看到單位增長強勁。

During the fourth quarter, deflation in lumber negatively impacted average ticket growth by approximately 41 basis points. However, this deflation was largely offset by inflation in other core commodity categories for a net impact to average ticket from core commodities of negative 8 basis points.

第四季度，木材通貨緊縮對平均票價成長產生了約41個基點的負面影響。然而，這種通貨緊縮在很大程度上被其他核心商品類別的通貨膨脹所抵消，核心商品對平均票價的淨影響為負 8 個基點。

During the fourth quarter, big ticket comp transactions or those over $1,000, which represent approximately 20% of U.S. sales, were up 4.8%. A number of factors served as headwinds to big ticket sales in the fourth quarter, notably unexpected wet weather across the U.S. and lapping last year's hurricane-related sales. Excluding hurricane-affected markets, we see that January's big ticket comp was up almost double digits, in line with what we saw throughout 2018. Big ticket categories like vinyl plank flooring, roofing and appliances all had comps above the company average in the fourth quarter.

第四季度，大額交易或超過 1,000 美元的交易（約占美國銷售額的 20%）成長了 4.8%。許多因素對第四季大宗商品銷售構成阻力，尤其是美國意外的陰雨天氣以及去年颶風導致的銷售下滑。除去受颶風影響的市場，我們發現 1 月份大宗商品銷售額年增近兩位數，與 2018 年全年的情況一致。第四季度，乙烯基板地板、屋頂和家電等大宗產品的銷售額均高於公司平均水平。

We saw growth with both our Pro and do-it-yourself customers in the fourth quarter with Pro sales growing faster than the company's average comp. We continue to see strong performance in Pro-heavy categories like power tools, water heaters and commercial and industrial lighting. Sales to our DIY customers grew year-over-year as our customers completed a variety of interior projects. Categories like hard window coverings, safety and security and cleaning all posted strong growth in the quarter. We also saw a record performance with our annual gift center and holiday sets. Additionally, the combination of outstanding values from our suppliers, right assortments from our merchants and phenomenal execution in our stores led to the single-highest sales day in our company's history on Black Friday.

第四季度，我們的專業客戶和 DIY 客戶均實現了成長，其中專業客戶的銷售額成長速度快於公司的平均水準。我們繼續看到電動工具、熱水器以及商業和工業照明等專業重型類別的強勁表現。隨著我們的客戶完成各種室內項目，我們對 DIY 客戶的銷售額年增。硬窗簾、安全和清潔等類別在本季均實現強勁成長。我們的年度禮品中心和節日套裝也創下了紀錄。此外，我們供應商的卓越價值、我們商家的正確產品組合以及我們商店的出色執行力，使得黑色星期五創下了我們公司歷史上最高的銷售日。

As part of our journey to enhance the One Home Depot experience, we are significantly investing in our digital assets to provide a frictionless, interconnected shopping experience. Earlier this year, we formed approximately 50 cross-functional squads focused on agile development to improve our online customer experience. These teams have accomplished a great deal in a short period and are driving results. In 2018, we hit a milestone of approximately 2 billion online visits. And our ongoing efforts to improve the interconnected customer experience have led to a consistent improvement in our conversion rates throughout the year.

作為提升 One Home Depot 體驗的一部分，我們正在大力投資數位資產，以提供順暢、互聯的購物體驗。今年早些時候，我們組建了大約 50 個跨職能小組，專注於敏捷開發，以改善我們的線上客戶體驗。這些團隊在短時間內取得了巨大成就，並且取得了成果。2018年，我們的線上訪問量達到了約20億次的里程碑。我們不斷努力改善互聯客戶體驗，使我們的轉換率全年持續提高。

However, our work is not done. In 2019, we will continue to roll out enhancements across our digital assets. As you heard from Craig, we are excited to be rolling out a new B2B online experience for our Pro customers to provide a more tailored, personalized offering. And for consumers, we will continue to focus on improving the way we bring our assortments to life in the digital world. As we look to 2019, we are excited to build on our momentum. We are the #1 retailer for product authority in home improvement. And together with our supplier partners, we will work to offer the best products at the best value for our customers every day.

然而，我們的工作尚未完成。2019年，我們將繼續增強我們的數位資產。正如您從 Craig 那裡聽到的，我們很高興為我們的專業客戶推出新的 B2B 線上體驗，以提供更客製化、個人化的服務。對於消費者而言，我們將繼續致力於改進我們在數位世界中呈現產品的方式。展望 2019 年，我們很高興能夠繼續保持良好勢頭。我們是家居裝飾產品領域排名第一的權威零售商。我們將與供應商合作夥伴一起，每天努力為客戶提供最優質、最有價值的產品。

A great example of our strong partnerships is in our paint business. Our exclusive partners, Behr and PPG, bring the 2 highest-rated consumer paint and stain brands to The Home Depot. These strong brands, along with the great execution in our stores, helped drive paint comps above the company average in the fourth quarter. We are particularly pleased with our sales to our Pro painters as our investments and initiatives are gaining traction.

我們的油漆業務就是我們強大合作關係的一個很好的例子。我們的獨家合作夥伴 Behr 和 PPG 為家得寶帶來了 2 個評價最高的消費者油漆和染色品牌。這些強大的品牌，加上我們門市的出色執行，幫助第四季度的油漆銷售額高於公司平均水平。由於我們的投資和舉措正在獲得關注，我們對面向專業畫家的銷售業績感到特別滿意。

In addition to having the best products, we are investing to improve the in-store paint experience for our customers. In 2019, we plan to roll out a new Color Solutions Center to all stores and we'll do a full reset in exterior stains. We're thrilled with the results we are driving in our paint business and look forward to building on our momentum in 2019.

除了擁有最好的產品外，我們還在投資改善顧客的店內油漆體驗。2019 年，我們計劃在所有門市推出新的色彩解決方案中心，並對外部污漬進行全面重置。我們對油漆業務所取得的成果感到非常高興，並期待在 2019 年繼續保持良好發展勢頭。

Product innovation is resonating with our customers as we see them trade up to new features and innovation across the store. One example we are seeing this is with Traeger in our grill category. Traeger is one of the fastest-growing brands in the grilling category in their innovative pellet grills. Traeger offers the versatility and convenience of being able to grill, smoke, bake, roast, braise or barbecue all in the same grill. Given the strong sales, we are introducing Traeger's new lineup of live-fire grills. This technology connects the grill directly to your smartphone so you can monitor your grill or adjust the temperature remotely. We are excited to be Traeger's exclusive partner in the big-box home improvement channel.

當我們看到顧客在整個商店中升級為使用新功能和創新產品時，產品創新引起了顧客的共鳴。我們在燒烤類別中看到的一個例子就是 Traeger。Traeger 是燒烤領域成長最快的品牌之一，擁有創新的顆粒烤架。Traeger 提供了多功能性和便利性，可以在同一個烤架上進行燒烤、煙燻、烘烤、烘烤、燉煮或燒烤。鑑於強勁的銷售勢頭，我們推出了 Traeger 的全新明火燒烤架系列。這項技術將烤架直接連接到您的智慧型手機，以便您可以遠端監控烤架或調節溫度。我們很高興成為 Traeger 在大型家居裝潢通路的獨家合作夥伴。

Another example of innovation is in our Pro-heavy roofing category. Over the last several years, we have seen both residential and commercial roofers trade up for innovative products that save them time and money. In the residential space, we have seen a significant shift from strip shingles to laminate architectural shingles. These laminate shingles last longer, have a lifetime warranty, are easier to install and offer dramatic color contrast and dimension, which is important from a decorative perspective. In the commercial segment, the trend has shifted from asphalt and aluminum roof coatings to elastomeric roof coatings that are more water and dirt-resistant. A great example of this is Henry Tropi-Cool Silicone, an exclusive to The Home Depot in the home improvement channel. No primer coat is needed, so the blend coat application saves time and money.

另一個創新的例子是我們的 Pro-heavy 屋頂類別。在過去的幾年中，我們看到住宅和商業屋頂工人都開始使用可以節省時間和金錢的創新產品。在住宅領域，我們看到了從條形瓦片到層壓建築瓦片的顯著轉變。這些層壓瓦使用壽命更長，享有終身保修，更易於安裝，並具有鮮明的色彩對比和尺寸，這從裝飾角度來看非常重要。在商業領域，趨勢已經從瀝青和鋁屋頂塗料轉變為更防水、更防污的彈性屋頂塗料。一個很好的例子就是 Henry Tropi-Cool Silicone，這是家得寶 (The Home Depot) 家居裝飾管道的獨家產品。不需要底漆，因此混合塗層的應用可以節省時間和金錢。

We are excited about the year ahead, particularly with the spring selling season right around the corner. Our investments in localized assortments and innovative products and in Everyday Low Price will continue to position us as the product authority in home improvement.

我們對來年充滿期待，尤其是春季銷售旺季即將來臨。我們對在地化產品分類和創新產品以及每日低價的投資將繼續鞏固我們作為家居裝修產品領域的權威地位。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Carol.

說完這些，我想把電話轉給卡蘿。

Thank you, Ted, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, total sales were $26.5 billion, a 10.9% increase from last year. And for the year, our sales totaled a record $108.2 billion, a 7.2% increase from last year. Fiscal 2018 included a 53rd week, which added approximately $1.7 billion in sales to the fourth quarter and the year. The extra week is not included in our comp sales calculation. Our fourth quarter results also include the impact of a new revenue recognition standard that we adopted at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, the change in revenue recognition positively affected sales growth by $86 million.

謝謝你，泰德，大家早安。第四季度，總銷售額為265億美元，比去年同期成長10.9%。今年，我們的銷售總額創下了 1,082 億美元的記錄，比去年增長了 7.2%。2018 財年包括第 53 週，為第四季和全年增加了約 17 億美元的銷售額。額外一週不包含在我們的銷售額計算中。我們的第四季業績還包括我們年初採用的新收入確認標準的影響。第四季度，收入確認的變化對銷售額成長產生了 8,600 萬美元的正面影響。

Our total company comps were positive 3.2% for the quarter with positive comps of 3.1% in November, 3.1% in December and 3.3% in January. Comps in the U.S. were positive 3.7% for the quarter with positive comps of 3.4% in November, 3.5% in December and 4.1% in January.

本季度我們公司整體同店銷售額成長 3.2%，其中 11 月同店銷售額成長 3.1%，12 月同店銷售額成長 3.1%，1 月同店銷售額成長 3.3%。本季美國同店銷售額成長 3.7%，其中 11 月同店銷售額成長 3.4%，12 月同店銷售額成長 3.5%，1 月同店銷售額成長 4.1%。

There were a few notable factors that affected our comp performance in the quarter. First, a stronger U.S. dollar negatively impacted total company comp sales growth in the quarter by approximately $96 million or 0.4%. Second, the commodity price inflation we experienced in the first 3 quarters of the year disappeared in the fourth quarter. Finally, as you know, we were up against nearly $400 million of hurricane-related sales. We expected that, but we did not expect such a wet winter. Sometimes, weather-driven demand can help sales growth, sometimes hurt. Relative to our expectations, we estimate weather-driven demand negatively impacted fourth quarter comp sales by roughly 85 basis points.

有幾個顯著的因素影響了我們本季的業績。首先，美元走強對本季公司整體銷售成長產生負面影響，減少約 9,600 萬美元，即 0.4%。第二，前三季出現的大宗商品價格上漲現象，在第四季消失了。最後，如您所知，我們面臨近 4 億美元的颶風相關銷售損失。我們預料到了這一點，但沒有想到冬天會這麼潮濕。有時，天氣驅動的需求可​​以幫助銷售成長，有時則會造成損害。相對於我們的預期，我們估計天氣驅動的需求對第四季度的同店銷售額產生了約 85 個基點的負面影響。

In the fourth quarter, our gross margin was 34.1%, an increase of 19 basis points from last year. The year-over-year change in our gross margin reflects the following factors. First, the new accounting standard drove $168 million of gross profit or 53 basis points of gross margin expansion. Second, higher supply chain and fulfillment expense caused approximately 19 basis points of gross margin contraction. Third, higher shrink than 1 year ago resulted in 10 basis points of contraction. And finally, changes in the mix of products sold drove 5 basis points of contraction. For the year, we experienced 29 basis points of gross margin expansion.

第四季度，我們的毛利率為34.1%，比去年同期增加了19個基點。我們的毛利率同比變化反映了以下因素。首先，新會計準則帶來1.68億美元的毛利，或53個基點的毛利率擴大。其次，供應鏈和履行費用增加導致毛利率下降約19個基點。第三，收縮幅度比一年前更大，導致10個基點收縮。最後，銷售產品組合的變化導致了 5 個基點的收縮。今年，我們的毛利率擴大了 29 個基點。

In the fourth quarter, operating expense as a percent of sales increased by 79 basis points to 21.3% due to the following factors. First, we experienced 152 basis points of expense leverage in BAU, or business as usual, expenses. The strong leverage in the core of our business was driven by solid expense control, but also reflects certain expense items that did not repeat this year, most notably a onetime bonus of $117 million that was granted to our hourly associates last year.

第四季度，營業費用佔銷售額的百分比增加了 79 個基點，達到 21.3%，原因如下。首先，我們的 BAU（即正常業務費用）費用槓桿達到了 152 個基點。我們核心業務的強大槓桿率是由穩固的費用控制推動的，但也反映了今年某些未重複的費用項目，最引人注目的是去年向我們的小時工發放的1.17億美元的一次性獎金。

Our BAU expense leverage was offset by the following. First, as we called out in our press release, as we move forward with our B2B experience, we recognized an impairment loss of $247 million or 93 basis points of expense deleverage related to the write-off of several trade names associated with Interline Brands. Second, the new accounting standard resulted in a $168 million increase to our operating expenses and caused 63 basis points of operating expense deleverage. And third, expenses related to our strategic investment plan of roughly $198 million resulted in approximately 75 basis points of operating expense deleverage.

我們的 BAU 費用槓桿被以下因素抵消。首先，正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，隨著我們 B2B 業務的不斷推進，我們確認了 2.47 億美元的減值損失，或 93 個基點的費用去槓桿，這些損失與 Interline Brands 相關的多個商品名稱的註銷有關。其次，新會計準則導致我們的營業費用增加1.68億美元，並造成營業費用去槓桿63個基點。第三，與我們的策略投資計畫相關的費用約 1.98 億美元，導致營業費用去槓桿率下降約 75 個基點。

Fiscal 2018 operating expense as a percent of sales was 20%, an increase of 49 basis points from last year. Our fiscal 2018 expense performance was better than our initial expectations, driven by productivity in BAU. For the year, we incurred almost $700 million of expenses related to our strategic initiatives, in line with our plans.

2018財年營業費用佔銷售額的百分比為20％，比去年增加了49個基點。在 BAU 生產力的推動下，我們 2018 財年的費用表現優於​​我們的初步預期。今年，我們按照計畫花費了近 7 億美元的與策略性舉措相關的費用。

Our operating margin for the fourth quarter was 12.8% and for the year was 14.4%. Interest and other expense for the fourth quarter grew by $19 million to $265 million, reflecting, for the most part, a loss on the sale of a nonstrategic asset. In the fourth quarter, our effective tax rate was 24.7% and for fiscal 2018 was 23.6%. Our effective tax rate for the quarter and the year reflects the closeout of the provisional charge we took last year related to tax reform and certain positive audit settlements.

我們第四季的營業利益率為 12.8%，全年營業利益率為 14.4%。第四季的利息和其他支出增加了 1,900 萬美元，達到 2.65 億美元，主要反映了非戰略性資產出售的損失。第四季度，我們的有效稅率為 24.7%，2018 財政年度有效稅率為 23.6%。我們本季和本年度的有效稅率反映了我們去年與稅務改革和某些積極的審計結算相關的臨時費用的結算。

Our diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $2.09, an increase of 37.5% from last year. For the year, diluted earnings per share were $9.73, an increase of 33.5% compared to fiscal 2017. Our fourth quarter and fiscal 2018 diluted earnings per share were negatively impacted by approximately $0.16 due to the impairment charge recorded in the fourth quarter.

我們第四季的每股攤薄收益為 2.09 美元，比去年同期成長 37.5%。全年每股攤薄收益為 9.73 美元，較 2017 財年成長 33.5%。由於第四季記錄的減損費用，我們第四季和 2018 財年的每股攤薄收益受到約 0.16 美元的負面影響。

So moving on to some additional highlights. During the year, we opened 3 new stores, including 1 in the U.S. and 2 in Mexico, for an ending store count of 2,287. Selling square footage at the end of the year was 238 million square feet. For the fiscal year, total sales per square foot increased 7.2% to $447, the highest in our company history.

接下來我們來看看其他一些亮點。本財年，我們開了 3 家新店，其中 1 家在美國，2 家在墨西哥，期末店數達到 2,287 家。年底銷售面積為2.38億平方英尺。在本財政年度，每平方英尺的總銷售額成長 7.2%，達到 447 美元，創下公司歷史最高水準。

At the end of the quarter, merchandise inventories grew $1.2 billion to $13.9 billion. And inventory turns were 5.1x, flat with last year. The growth in our inventory versus last year reflects the investments we are making to accelerate merchandising resets and higher in-stock levels than we had 1 year ago.

截至本季末，商品庫存增加 12 億美元，達到 139 億美元。庫存週轉率為5.1倍，與去年持平。與去年相比，我們的庫存有所增長，這反映了我們為加速商品重置和提高庫存水準（比一年前更高）而進行的投資。

Moving on to capital allocation. In fiscal 2018, we generated approximately $13.3 billion of cash from the business and used that cash as well as the proceeds from $2.2 billion of net debt issuances and cash on hand to invest in the business, pay dividends to our shareholders and repurchase our shares. During the year, we invested approximately $2.4 billion back into the business through capital expenditures. Further, we paid $4.7 billion in dividends to our shareholders. And finally, during the year, we repurchased approximately $10 billion or about 54.3 million of our outstanding shares, including roughly $4.5 billion or 25.7 million shares in the fourth quarter.

繼續進行資本配置。2018 財年，我們從該業務中產生了約 133 億美元的現金，並利用這些現金以及 22 億美元淨債務發行所得和庫存現金來投資該業務、向股東支付股息併回購我們的股票。本年度，我們透過資本支出向業務重新投資了約 24 億美元。此外，我們也向股東支付了 47 億美元的股利。最後，今年我們回購了約 100 億美元或約 5,430 萬股流通股，其中包括第四季回購的約 45 億美元或 2,570 萬股。

Computed on the average of beginning and ending long-term debt and equity for the trailing 12 months, return on invested capital was approximately 44.8%, 1,060 basis points higher than the end of fiscal 2017.

根據過去 12 個月期初和期末長期債務和股權的平均值計算，投資資本回報率約為 44.8%，比 2017 財年末高出 1,060 個基點。

Today's press release includes our guidance for fiscal 2019, and I want to take a few moments to comment on the main points. Remember that we guide off GAAP. So fiscal 2019 guidance will launch from our reported results for fiscal 2018, which includes sales and earnings associated with the 53rd week. When we report our quarterly comp sales results, we will compare weeks 1 through 52 in fiscal 2019 against weeks 2 through 53 in fiscal 2018.

今天的新聞稿包括我們對 2019 財年的指導，我想花點時間評論一下重點。請記住，我們是根據 GAAP 來指導的。因此，2019 財年指引將從我們報告的 2018 財年業績開始，其中包括第 53 週相關的銷售額和收益。當我們報告季度可比銷售結果時，我們將 2019 財年的第 1 至 52 週與 2018 財年的第 2 至 53 週進行比較。

So with that, turning to our sales growth projections. As you know, we use a directionally correct but imperfect model to predict -- project our sales growth. It starts with GDP. While we are in the 10th year of economic recovery, U.S. GDP is expected to grow in 2019. And for our model, we are using 2.6% GDP growth. To GDP, we add the expected spending impact from key housing metrics, including home price appreciation, housing turnover, household formation and the age of the housing stock.

因此，我們來談談我們的銷售成長預測。如您所知，我們使用方向正確但不完美的模型來預測我們的銷售成長。首先從GDP開始。目前我們正處於經濟復甦的第 10 年，預計 2019 年美國 GDP 將實現成長。對於我們的模型，我們使用2.6%的GDP成長率。除了 GDP，我們還增加了關鍵住房指標的預期支出影響，包括房價升值、房屋週轉率、家庭形成和房屋存量的年齡。

As we look to 2019, most housing metrics are trending positive, albeit heading towards stability. Two of these metrics worth highlighting are home equity, which is a function of home price appreciation, and the age of the housing stock. Home equity has more than doubled since 2011, and 52% of the homes in the U.S. are greater than 40 years old. And you will recall that the 3-year sales target we established in 2017 started with a base comp of 4%. The sales forecasting model that we built for 2019 doesn't move us materially off that base. For 2019, we are planning a 5% comp, which includes our base model plus growth emanating from our strategic investments. For fiscal 2019, we expect total sales growth of approximately 3.3%, reflecting that compare to 53 weeks last year.

展望2019年，大多數住房指標均呈現正面趨勢，並趨於穩定。其中兩個值得強調的指標是房屋淨值（它是房價升值的函數）和房屋存量的年齡。自 2011 年以來，房屋淨值增加了一倍多，美國 52% 的房屋年齡超過 40 年。您可能還記得，我們​​在 2017 年所訂定的三年銷售目標就是以 4% 的基本成長率開始的。我們為 2019 年建立的銷售預測模型並沒有讓我們偏離這個基礎。2019 年，我們計劃實現 5% 的年成長，其中包括我們的基礎模型加上源自策略投資的成長。對於 2019 財年，我們預計總銷售額將成長約 3.3%，與去年的 53 週相比。

Two more comments for your models. First, when you are thinking about the shape of the year, we would expect the comp for the first half of 2019 to be about 250 basis points lower than the second half of the year because of the hurricane-related sales overlap. On a 2-year stacked basis, we expect that our first half and second half comps will be relatively similar. Second, because of the shift in the year and the seasonality of our business, our 2019 comp sales will not match our sales growth rates in 3 of 4 quarters.

針對您的模型還有兩則評論。首先，當您考慮今年的情況時，我們預計由於與颶風相關的銷售重疊，2019 年上半年的銷售額將比下半年低約 250 個基點。以兩年的疊加基礎來看，我們預期上半年和下半年的業績將相對相似。其次，由於年份的變化和業務的季節性，我們 2019 年的同店銷售額將不會與 4 個季度中的 3 個季度的銷售成長率相符。

During the year, we plan to open 5 net new stores, 4 in the U.S. and 1 in Mexico. For fiscal 2019, we are projecting our gross margin rate to be approximately 34%, in line with the 2020 target we set forth during our December 2017 Investor Conference. At this time, we are not expecting further gross margin contraction in fiscal 2020. We expect our fiscal 2019 operating expenses to grow at approximately 53% the rate of our sales growth. On a 52-to-52-week basis and ignoring the impairment charge we recorded in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018, we expect our fiscal 2019 operating expenses to grow at approximately 90% of the rate of our sales growth.

年內，我們計劃開設 5 家新店，其中 4 家在美國，1 家在墨西哥。對於2019財年，我們預計毛利率約為34％，與我們在2017年12月投資者會議上製定的2020年目標一致。目前，我們預計 2020 財年的毛利率不會再進一步收縮。我們預計 2019 財年的營運費用將以銷售額成長率約 53% 的速度成長。以 52 至 52 週計算，忽略我們在 2018 財年第四季記錄的減損費用，我們預計 2019 財年的營運費用將以銷售額成長率的約 90% 成長。

For the year, we expect that our operating margin will be essentially flat with what we recorded in fiscal 2018. For fiscal 2019, we estimate our effective tax rate to be approximately 25.5%. We expect fiscal 2019 diluted earnings per share to grow approximately 3.1% to $10.03. Our earnings per share guidance includes our plan to repurchase approximately $5 billion of outstanding shares during the year.

我們預計今年的營業利潤率將與 2018 財年的水平基本持平。2019財年，我們預計有效稅率約為25.5%。我們預計 2019 財年每股攤薄收益將成長約 3.1% 至 10.03 美元。我們的每股盈餘預期包括我們計劃在今年回購約 50 億美元流通股。

For the year, we project cash flow from the business of roughly $14 billion. We will invest $2.7 billion of this cash back into the business in support of our strategic initiatives. We also plan to use this cash to pay $6 billion of dividends. As Craig mentioned, we just announced a 32% increase in our quarterly dividend, which equates to an annual dividend of $5.44, in line with our targeted dividend payout ratio of 55% of earnings. Finally, we plan to repurchase $5 billion of outstanding shares using excess cash.

我們預計今年的業務現金流約為 140 億美元。我們將把其中 27 億美元的現金重新投資到業務中，以支持我們的策略性舉措。我們還計劃利用這筆現金支付 60 億美元的股息。正如 Craig 所提到的，我們剛剛宣布季度股息增加 32%，相當於年度股息 5.44 美元，與我們 55% 的收益目標股息支付率一致。最後，我們計劃利用過剩現金回購價值 50 億美元的流通股。

At our last Investor Conference in December 2017, we shared with you our long-term financial targets and our strategy to create the One Home Depot. By the end of fiscal 2020, we are aiming to grow our sales to a range of $115 billion to $120 billion with an operating margin range of 14.4% to 15% and return on invested capital of more than 40%. As evidenced by our fiscal 2018 results and our guidance for 2019, today, we are reaffirming our long-term targets. Thank you for your participation in today's call.

在我們 2017 年 12 月舉行的上一次投資者會議上，我們與您分享了我們的長期財務目標和創建「一個家得寶」的策略。到 2020 財年末，我們的目標是將銷售額成長到 1,150 億美元至 1,200 億美元，營業利潤率達到 14.4% 至 15%，投資資本回報率達到 40% 以上。正如我們 2018 財年業績和 2019 年指引所表明的那樣，今天，我們重申了我們的長期目標。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

And Christine, we are now ready for questions.

克里斯汀，現在我們可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西緬古特曼 (Simeon Gutman)。

My first question is two parts on gross margin. So getting to the 34% level in 2019, was that always part of your plan and the Street maybe just looked like it was mismodeling? Or is something changing on your investment cadence? And then the second part of that gross margin question is, can you split the-- it looks like about 30 basis points of contraction into like fixed versus variable costs? And how much would gross margin flex if comps are better or worse than 100 basis points of your forecast?

我的第一個問題是關於毛利率的兩個部分。那麼，在 2019 年達到 34% 的水平，這一直是你的計畫的一部分嗎？或者您的投資節奏正在發生一些變化嗎？那麼毛利率問題的第二部分是，您能否將看起來約 30 個基點的收縮分解為固定成本和變動成本？如果可比產品的實際價格比您的預測高出或低出 100 個基點，那麼毛利率會上漲多少？

Simeon, I think the first comment I'd have is, as it relates to the margin rate, was a difference than what we anticipated, a little bit more sustained pressure in supply chain maybe than what we initially anticipated in 2017.

西緬，我想我要說的第一點是，就利潤率而言，這與我們的預期有所不同，供應鏈中的持續壓力可能比我們在 2017 年最初預期的要大一些。

But as we look at our model both for '19 and '20, let me break apart the gross margin performance for you in our expectations. First, as you know, productivity is a virtuous cycle at The Home Depot. And we have productivity in our cost of goods. And we project the productivity into '19 and '20. Offsetting that productivity in '19 is some pressure that Craig mentioned in supply chain as well as our supply chain rollout. There's a little bit of shrink pressure in 2019, but we're going to cover that off with productivity. And then there's the mix pressure, mix that was always in our plan as we see relative outperformance of growth in lower-margin category. So as we look through '19 to '20, nothing comes to our attention that -- at this point that the margin will contract further because productivity will continue into '20. On your second part of your question in terms of fixed/variable nature of our gross margin or of our cost of goods, we actually don't look it through that lens. But I will tell you, within the performance in the fourth quarter, there were a few surprises relative to the guidance that we gave at the end of the third quarter. First, the supply chain contraction of 19 basis points was a bit higher than we had anticipated. We had 3 basis points of fuel pressure come through and about 5 basis points of higher fees related to third-party delivery agents. And then we had a bit higher shrink than we anticipated. Hopefully, that's helpful.

但是，當我們審視 2019 年和 2020 年的模型時，我會按照我們的預期為您分解毛利率表現。首先，如您所知，生產力在家得寶是一個良性循環。我們的商品成本具有生產力。我們對2019年和20年的生產力進行了預測。抵銷19年生產力的是 Craig 提到的供應鏈以及我們的供應鏈推廣中的一些壓力。2019 年會有一點萎縮壓力，但我們將透過提高生產力來彌補這種壓力。然後還有混合壓力，這一直在我們的計劃中，因為我們看到低利潤類別的成長表現相對較好。因此，當我們回顧 2019 年到 2020 年時，我們沒有註意到利潤率會進一步萎縮，因為生產力將持續到 2020 年。關於您問題的第二部分，關於我們的毛利率或商品成本的固定/可變性質，我們實際上並沒有從這個角度來看待它。但我要告訴你，第四季的業績表現相對於我們在第三季末給出的指引而言有一些意外。首先，供應鏈收縮19個基點，略高於我們的預期。我們的燃油壓力增加了 3 個基點，與第三方交付代理相關的費用增加了約 5 個基點。然後我們的收縮幅度比我們預期的要高一些。希望這對你有幫助。

Yes, it's helpful. My follow-up is on the demand side. Can you tell us if you -- if there were any markets that were "normal," not meaning ex weather? Did they perform in line? Or did they perform better than you thought? And then you've told us in the past where housing turnover markets have been soft, you've called out that the business has been solid, just checking if that's still the case.

是的，很有幫助。我的後續關注點是需求方面。您能否告訴我們是否有「正常」的市場，不是指除天氣因素外？他們排隊表演嗎？或者他們的表現比你想像的還要好嗎？然後您曾經告訴我們，過去房屋交易市場一直很疲軟，而您卻說業務一直很穩健，只是想檢查一下情況是否仍然如此。

Yes, we saw great performance in areas that had good weather. I must say, the weather was across the country, but you can find pockets of that relative outperformance. And if you look at the housing-related markets, let's take Seattle as an example. Seattle is talked about a lot as the place where there's huge home price appreciation. The comp in Seattle for the fourth quarter was at 6.3%. Let's take Dallas, Dallas is another area of the country where home prices have seen significant home price appreciation. The comp in Dallas was in line with the company average. So we're not seeing any impact to our performance in a negative way because of the housing environment.

是的，在天氣好的地區我們看到了出色的表現。我必須說，全國各地的天氣狀況都不一樣，但你還是能發現一些相對優異的表現。如果你看看與房屋相關的市場，我們以西雅圖為例。西雅圖作為房價大幅上漲的地方被人們廣泛討論。西雅圖第四季的銷售額年增 6.3%。以達拉斯為例，達拉斯是美國另一個房價大幅上漲的地區。達拉斯的同店銷售額與公司平均值一致。因此，我們並沒有看到住房環境對我們的業績產生任何負面影響。

If you look at a market like L.A., when the weather is shifted, we see a 1,400 basis point swing week-to-week based on weather. So when the weather was positive, it would lift 1,400 basis points.

如果你觀察洛杉磯這樣的市場，當天氣改變時，我們會看到每週都會因天氣原因出現 1,400 個基點的波動。因此，當天氣狀況良好時，它將提升 1,400 個基點。

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Lasser with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的麥克‧拉瑟 (Mike Lasser)。

You noted that your comp guidance was based on 4% growth from underlying economic conditions and housing. Is there a way that you could size the potential downside if GDP doesn't meet 2.6% and we see a continued deceleration on some of the key housing metrics?

您指出，您的業績指引是基於基本經濟狀況和住房 4% 的成長。如果 GDP 未達到 2.6% 且我們看到一些關鍵住房指標持續減速，您有什麼辦法可以衡量潛在的下行風險嗎？

Well, clearly, our base model starts with GDP. And the forecasts for GDP next year are -- there's a wide range. We landed on 2.6%. We think that's the right number to use. We added to that about 1 point coming from the various housing metrics that we look at, so that takes our base comps to 3.6%. And candidly, we rounded it up to 4% because we're just not that good at it. There -- we really wanted to call out two things that are important in our model. And one is home equity. There's $15.4 billion -- what am I saying? $15.4 trillion of home equity out there. Home equity has more than doubled since 2011. And if you look at the home equity per owner-occupied household, that equity is $193,000 and has not been extracted. So we think that bodes well. It's a wealth effect that bodes well into 2019. The other aspect of the housing market is just the age of the housing market. 52% of the homes is older than 40 years. We know that spend for homes that are 40 years and older is 30% greater than spend on homes less than 10 years.

嗯，顯然，我們的基礎模型是從 GDP 開始的。明年 GDP 的預測範圍很廣。我們達到了 2.6%。我們認為這是正確的數字。我們根據所關注的各種住房指標在此基礎上添加了約 1 個百分點，因此我們的基本比率達到了 3.6%。坦白說，我們將其四捨五入為 4％，因為我們在這方面不太擅長。我們確實想指出模型中重要的兩件事。一是房屋淨值。有 154 億美元——我在說什麼？那裡有 15.4 兆美元的房屋淨值。自 2011 年以來，房屋淨值增加了一倍多。如果你看看每個自住家庭的房屋淨值，這個淨值是 193,000 美元，而且還沒有被提取。因此我們認為這是一個好兆頭。這種財富效應預示著2019年將會表現良好。房地產市場的另一個面向就是房地產市場的年齡。52%的房屋年齡超過40年。我們知道，40年以上的房屋的支出比10年以下的房屋的支出高出30％。

And my follow-up question is on the contribution from your initiatives. Shouldn't we expect that the contribution, which we sized at 100 basis points, shouldn't we expect that that's going to build over the course of the year as you've had more time to benefit from what you put in place over the last 12 to 18 months? And what's the upside risk from that -- those initiatives driving more than 100 basis points of contribution to your comps?

我的後續問題是關於你們的倡議所做的貢獻。我們不應該預期，我們設定為 100 個基點的貢獻，會隨著時間推移而不斷增加，因為您有更多的時間從過去 12 到 18 個月所實施的措施中受益嗎？那麼，這些舉措將為您的同店銷售額帶來超過 100 個基點的貢獻，這其中的上行風險是什麼？

Michael, it will build as we go forward. You're thinking about that the right way. And so we definitely -- we see it building throughout 2019 and then beyond.

邁克爾，隨著我們不斷前進，它將繼續建立。您的想法是正確的。因此，我們確實看到它在整個 2019 年及以後不斷發展。

So I mentioned...

所以我提到...

In fact, what...

事實上，什麼…

Mike, I mentioned that the back half comp would be greater than the first half comp. Part of that is due to the hurricane overlap, but part of it is due to the build.

麥克，我提到後半段的薪酬會高於前半部的薪酬。部分原因是颶風重疊，但部分原因是建造。

And what leading indicators are you looking at within the business that give you confidence that it's going to contribute the 100 basis points that you're expecting?

您關注的業務內部的哪些領先指標讓您有信心它將貢獻出您預期的 100 個基點？

Well, when we look at the initiatives that we've begun to put in place, whether that is the amount of store refreshes that we have done, whether it is the interconnected experience with the automated lockers that we've put in place, which is driving, obviously, a great response from the customers, these are things that we tested, we piloted and as we rolled, we began to see a benefit as a result. And we feel comfortable that those are going to be the driver behind that point of initiative growth.

好吧，當我們審視我們已經開始實施的舉措時，無論是我們進行的商店更新數量，還是我們已經實施的自動儲物櫃的互聯體驗，這些顯然都引起了客戶的熱烈響應，這些都是我們測試過、試行過的，隨著我們的推廣，我們開始看到了其帶來的好處。我們確信，這些將成為該計劃成長的推動力。

We're also seeing outsize growth in our Pro business. And as we continue to add Pros to our website, to our new Pro experience, if you will, we're adding over 1 million customers this year, we see spend with those customers increasing.

我們的專業業務也呈現出超乎尋常的成長。隨著我們繼續將專業人士添加到我們的網站，添加到我們的新專業體驗中，如果你願意的話，今年我們將增加超過 100 萬客戶，我們看到這些客戶的支出不斷增加。

Our next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Scot Ciccarelli。

Scot Ciccarelli. So can you help us understand maybe the investment pace a little bit better? It sounds like there may be some shifts between the original expectations between 2019 and 2020, just from a timing perspective, number one. Number two, could we end up facing a scenario where the absolute investment amounts, what you're doing with the supply chain and in the stores, et cetera, maybe exceed your prior views, and almost every company out there is -- their investment plan seems to be a moving target?

斯科特·西卡雷利。那麼您能否幫助我們更了解投資步伐？首先，從時間角度來看，2019 年和 2020 年之間的原始預期可能會有一些變化。第二，我們最終是否會面臨這樣的情況：絕對投資額、你在供應鏈和商店等方面所做的工作可能超出你之前的看法，而且幾乎每家公司的投資計劃似乎都是一個移動的目標？

Well, I'm happy to take you back to December of '17 when we laid out our investment plan where you'll recall, we announced an $11.1 billion investment plan, which was $5.4 billion over what we would've spent in a BAU basis. And this is the cash look of the investment. So it's both expense and capital. Then we shared with you a chart back in 2017 that broke that spending down by year. We said we would spend $1.4 billion in '18, $1.9 billion in '19 and $2.1 billion in '20. If we look at what we spent in '18, we spent $1.4 billion, about $550 million in expense and $800 million in capital. Now on the expenses, we also had some depreciation, but that wasn't on the chart that we shared with you. If you add the depreciation related to our investments in 2018, it was more like $700 million. As we look to '19, we are projecting and in our guidance that we will spend $1.7 billion, $550 million in expense and about $1.1 billion in capital. That's roughly $200 million under what we shared with you in 2017. That spending is being pushed to '20, and it might push out a little past '20. The reason for this is because we're just getting smarter about how we spend our dollars. And I've had to change the prioritization of some of our activity to deal with some of our legacy IT systems. As we look at it today, our estimate is we won't exceed our spend. In fact, we may be able to deliver this under the target. But we've got to face this the appropriate way so that we don't actually deliver an initiative that the foundation can't serve. So hopefully, that's helpful.

好吧，我很高興帶你回到 2017 年 12 月，當時我們制定了我們的投資計劃，你會記得，我們​​宣布了一項 111 億美元的投資計劃，比我們在 BAU 基礎上的支出高出 54 億美元。這是投資的現金表現。所以它既是費用，也是資本。然後，我們與您分享了 2017 年按年份細分支出的圖表。我們說過，2018年我們將花費14億美元，2019年花費19億美元，2020年花費21億美元。如果我們看看2018年的支出，我們花了14億美元，其中約5.5億美元的費用和8億美元的資本。現在談到費用，我們也有一些折舊，但這不在我們與您分享的圖表上。如果加上我們 2018 年投資相關的折舊，那就更高達 7 億美元了。展望2019年，我們預計並指導支出17億美元，其中費用5.5億美元，資本約11億美元。這比我們在 2017 年與您分享的數字少了約 2 億美元。這筆支出將被推遲到2020年，而且可能會推遲到2020年以後。原因在於我們在花錢方面越來越精明了。我必須改變某些活動的優先順序，以處理一些遺留的 IT 系統。從今天來看，我們估計我們不會超出我們的支出。事實上，我們也許能夠實現這一目標。但我們必須以適當的方式面對這個問題，這樣我們才不會真正提出基金會無法提供的服務。希望這會有所幫助。

It is.

這是。

Yes, Scot. This year was a learning year as it related to the investments. And we found that some things, we could actually accelerate and other things are going to take us a little bit longer, as Carol mentioned, because of the legacy systems that we have to fix.

是的，斯科特。今年是與投資相關的學習年。我們發現，有些事情我們實際上可以加速完成，但其他事情則會花費更長的時間，正如卡羅爾所提到的，因為我們必須修復遺留系統。

Our next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

我們的下一個問題來自 Gordon Haskett 的 Chuck Grom。

Charles, just on the macro again. I'm just trying to connect the dots between your 5% guide and [Lear's] view for 2019, particularly it's the expectation that gains in our renovation spending slows as the year progresses, which is sort of counter what -- to what you're speaking to. And just also on a follow-up to the comp, with the shift going from weeks 1 to 52 to weeks 2 to 53, I know for some of the department stores, that tends to throw things off a lot. Is there anything that we should think about in terms of the quarterly cadence because of that?

查爾斯，再次討論宏觀問題。我只是想將您的 5% 指南和 [Lear] 對 2019 年的看法聯繫起來，特別是預計隨著時間的推移，我們的翻新支出增長將放緩，這與您所說的有點相反。另外，根據同店銷售額的跟踪，隨著銷售額從第 1 週到第 52 週轉變為第 2 週到第 53 週，我知道對於一些百貨公司來說，這往往會造成很大的影響。因此，我們是否應該就季度節奏進行一些思考？

Yes, so let me address the latter part of your question first, and then we'll get back to the macro. So the shift in the calendar wouldn't be such a big deal if we weren't such a seasonal business. But we are a very seasonal business. So this year, let's take the first quarter, we will be comparing weeks 1 to 13 in '19 against weeks 2 to 14 in '18. And that shift will have an impact. So you would expect the comp in the first quarter to actually be lower than the actual sales growth that we report. That reverses in the second quarter. In the second quarter, we would expect the comps to be higher than the sales growth we report. In the third quarter, it will be about the same. And then in the fourth quarter, the comp will be higher than the sales growth that we report, especially because we're up against 14 weeks versus 13 weeks that we will share. I will tell you that the first week difference is about $1.5 billion sales. So we're dropping off the compare on $1.5 billion, and we're gaining that compare of over $2 billion. So hopefully that helps you kind of model what that first quarter impact will be. Now going back to the macro questions, we use a directionally correct but imperfect model. And it's worked for us pretty well since we implemented it. And if you've been following us for a while, you'll recall that we set 4 stages of housing recovery and the impact it would have on our comps. And we had 3 stages of housing recovery. There was sharp, there was moderate and then there was stability. And if you look through that document, I think it's on our website, if not, we can get it to you, you can see in the stability area, which is where we think we are trending, our model suggests it's GDP plus 1% to 2%. We conservatively said GDP plus 1%. So if you use a 2.6% GDP and you add 1 basis -- 100 basis points to that, you get to 3.6% and we rounded up a bit to 4%. And then as you heard from Craig, we added 1 point relative to our strategic investments. There are lots of forces and economic prognosis that you can use. So one thing that we use to kind of support our point of view is what the Harvard Joint Center says for remodeling activity. And their forecast for remodeling activity in 2019 is a 5% growth.

是的，那麼讓我先回答一下你的問題的後半部分，然後我們再回到宏觀問題。所以，如果我們的業務不是季節性的，那麼日曆的變化就不會是什麼大問題。但我們的業務季節性很強。因此，我們以今年第一季為例，我們將 2019 年第 1 至第 13 週與 2018 年第 2 至第 14 週進行比較。這種轉變將會產生影響。因此，您可以預期第一季的銷售額實際上會低於我們報告的實際成長。但第二季情況卻出現逆轉。在第二季度，我們預計同店銷售額的成長將高於我們報告的銷售額的成長。第三季的情況將大致相同。在第四季度，同店銷售額的成長將高於我們報告的銷售額成長，特別是因為我們將面臨 14 週的銷售額成長，而我們先前報告的銷售額成長是 13 週。我會告訴你第一週的差異約為 15 億美元的銷售額。因此，我們將比較金額從 15 億美元減少到 20 多億美元。所以希望這能幫助您模擬第一季的影響。現在回到宏觀問題，我們使用一個方向正確但不完美的模型。自從我們實施它以來，它一直運行良好。如果您一直關注我們，您就會記得，我們​​設定了住房復甦的四個階段，以及它對我們的同類企業的影響。我們的住房恢復分為三個階段。有尖銳的，有溫和的，然後是穩定的。如果你看一下那個文件，我想它在我們的網站上，如果沒有，我們可以把它給你，你可以在穩定區域看到，我們認為這是趨勢，我們的模型表明它是 GDP 加上 1% 到 2%。我們保守地說是GDP增加1％。因此，如果您使用 2.6% 的 GDP，並在此基礎上添加 1 個基點（100 個基點），您將得到 3.6%，然後我們將其略微上調至 4%。然後正如您從克雷格那裡聽到的，我們根據我們的策略投資增加了 1 點。您可以利用多種力量和經濟預測。因此，我們用來支持我們的觀點的一件事就是哈佛聯合中心對重塑活動的看法。他們預測 2019 年的改造活動將成長 5%。

Okay. Great. And then one more for you, Carol. On the third quarter call, you gave some helpful color on tax refunds and the timing impact. Just curious if your views on that front have changed at all. And it looks like February refunds are down a lot, which is expected, just wondering if that's impacted your business thus far in February.

好的。偉大的。再給你一個，卡蘿。在第三季電話會議上，您對退稅和時間影響給了一些有益的說明。只是好奇你在這方面的觀點是否有改變。看起來二月的退款下降了很多，這是預料之中的，只是想知道這是否對您二月迄今為止的業務產生了影響。

Yes, no. We wouldn't say that there's an impact to our business from tax in February. And as you pointed out, we wouldn't expect the real benefits coming from tax reform to come in later as those filers who have an earned income credit or a child's credit, they actually haven't filed. Those returns get filed and processed later.

是、不是。我們不會說二月的稅收會對我們的業務產生影響。正如你所指出的，我們不會期望稅改帶來的真正好處會在以後顯現，因為那些享有勞動所得稅抵免或兒童所得稅抵免的申報人實際上並未申報。這些退貨稍後會被歸檔並處理。

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Horvers with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的克里斯多福‧霍佛斯 (Christopher Horvers)。

So there's a lot of noise in '18, hurricane, inflation in the first half of the year, a twitch in the fourth quarter of deflation. Can you just -- it'd be helpful to think about 2018, if we backed out weather on an annual basis and we backed out the net benefit from inflation in the first 3 quarters, what is that underlying rate? And how does that compare to the 5% guide that you're putting out for 2019? And does that guide include any benefit from -- or headwind from inflation, deflation?

因此，2018 年有許多噪音，颶風、上半年的通貨膨脹，以及第四季的通貨緊縮。您能否—思考一下 2018 年的情況會很有幫助，如果我們按年度排除天氣因素，並排除前三個季度通貨膨脹的淨收益，那麼潛在利率是多少？這與您發布的 2019 年 5% 指南相比如何？該指南是否涵蓋了通膨、通貨緊縮帶來的好處或不利因素？

As we looked at that, we backed those noise levels out, it gets you somewhere in the area of a 5.5% to a 5.7% as a normalized run rate. You think about taking out the storms, you take out the weather, you take out the inflation and that's where we rounded to.

當我們看到這一點時，我們消除了那些噪音水平，它使標準化運行率達到 5.5% 到 5.7% 左右。你想想消除風暴，消除天氣，消除通貨膨脹，這就是我們要實現的目標。

And as you know, when we build our plans, we are commodity-inflation neutral. We don't really know how to plan for that. Based on where commodity prices are, there may be a little bit of pressure in the first half of the year, but we planned for that.

如你所知，當我們制定計劃時，我們對商品通膨是中性的。我們確實不知道該如何為此做計劃。根據大宗商品價格的現狀，今年上半年可能會面臨一點壓力，但我們已經為此做好了準備。

Understood. So just to summarize there, so you're basically saying, I mean, precise basis points, but 70, 80 basis points of moderation in the underlying driven -- comp from '18 and '19.

明白了。所以總結一下，你基本上是在說，我的意思是精確的基點，但在基礎驅動下有 70,80 個基點的適度 - 與 '18 年和 '19 年相比。

Yes, which is exactly what you'd expect. You would expect that where we are in the housing recovery. You would expect that.

是的，這正是您所期望的。你可能會想到，我們正處於房屋市場復甦階段。您可能會期望如此。

Got it. And then in terms of the shift from pricing -- well, turnover net then pricing and now home equity and age, does that express itself in any way in terms of traffic versus ticket growth? Do you expect ticket continue to lead? Does ticket growth actually become more of a factor versus the traffic growth? How are you thinking about that?

知道了。然後從定價的轉變來看——嗯，營業額淨額，然後是定價，現在是房屋淨值和年齡，這是否以某種方式體現在客流量與票價增長方面？您預計票房會繼續領先嗎？與客流量成長相比，票務成長是否真的變得更重要？您覺得這個怎麼樣？

Yes, it would, in fact, continue to support ticket growth for sure. And if you think about the formations estimated to be increasing in 2019 while turnover is more flattish to where it was in 2018, that would definitely drive project business.

是的，事實上它肯定會繼續支持票務成長。如果您想想 2019 年預計成立人數將增加，而營業額與 2018 年相比持平，那麼這肯定會推動專案業務的發展。

Okay. And then one quick -- go ahead. Sorry, Ted.

好的。然後快速地——繼續。對不起，泰德。

Yes. Sorry, Chris. I would just add on the ticket. The thing that's really encouraging about ticket, reasons we called out the innovative product and more premium roofing and a grill like a Traeger grill. We look at a number of signals very closely. One is the line structure where sales are coming from OPP to good, better, best. We continue to see stronger productivity as we move up price points. And we break that out. A second data point we look at very closely is where is ticket growth coming from. And we include commodity, we include tariff, we include new items, et cetera. And by far, our largest ticket growth is coming from the introduction of new, innovative items. It's actually much more significant than either inflation or tariff.

是的。對不起，克里斯。我只是想補充一下票的內容。票務真正令人鼓舞的事情是我們推出創新產品和更優質的屋頂以及像 Traeger 烤架這樣的烤架的原因。我們仔細觀察了許多訊號。一種是產品線結構，銷售從OPP到好、更好、最好。隨著價格點的上升，我們繼續看到生產力的提高。我們將這一點打破。我們密切關注的第二個數據點是票務成長來自哪裡。其中包括商品、關稅、新商品等等。到目前為止，我們最大的票務成長來自於新創新商品的推出。它實際上比通貨膨脹或關稅更為重要。

Got it. And then just to sneak one last one in. Carol, anything -- any particular cadence around gross margin and SG&A versus sales growth? Obviously, in the fourth quarter, you lapped the extra week. But anything else to call out on a quarterly basis in margins?

知道了。然後偷偷地再放進去最後一個。卡羅爾，有什麼問題嗎？顯然，在第四節，你又多跑了一週。但是，季度利潤率方面還有什麼需要注意的嗎？

Yes, we have the [signals where things should go]. And we try to predict when spring will break. And we use 5-year historical averages and forecasts from Planalytics, and we try to predict when it will break. We're usually wrong but we try. Now based on the way that we build our plan, we think that spring is going to break -- it hasn't yet, but we think that spring is going to break in the first quarter. So because many of our seasonal categories are lower margin, you would expect the margin decline to be the greatest in the first quarter. So that's an important thing to get out there as you're building your models. Chris, as you know, we're not really good at this, but with -- that's -- with our model, that's how we're planning. Then from an expense growth factor, the real noise will be, I guess, in the fourth quarter. But you -- I think we've given you enough color there that you can model to that. So there's really nothing too goopy on the expense side.

是的，我們有[事情應該如何發展的信號]。我們試圖預測春天何時到來。我們利用 Planalytics 的 5 年歷史平均值和預測值，試圖預測它何時會突破。我們通常會犯錯，但我們會努力嘗試。現在，根據我們制定計劃的方式，我們認為春季即將結束——雖然現在還沒有，但我們認為春季將在第一季結束。因此，由於我們的許多季節性類別的利潤率較低，您可以預期第一季的利潤率下降幅度最大。所以，當你建立模型時，這一點非常重要。克里斯，如你所知，我們在這方面並不擅長，但是，有了我們的模型，我們就是這樣計劃的。那麼從費用成長因素來看，我猜真正的噪音會出現在第四季。但是你——我想我們已經給了你足夠的顏色，你可以以此為模型。因此，在費用方面確實沒有太棘手的事情。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Forbes with Guggenheim.

我們的下一個問題來自古根漢的史蒂夫福布斯。

I wanted to focus on the enhanced delivery and fulfillment option rollout, Craig, you mentioned for 2019. So maybe you just comment on the number and type of facilities slated to open in '19 and, I guess, how you're moving along relative to the original plan.

克雷格，我想重點介紹您提到的 2019 年增強型交付和履行選項的推出。所以也許您只是評論一下計劃於 19 年開放的設施數量和類型，以及您相對於原計劃的進展。

Yes. Steve, we're excited about the pilots that we've put in place in 2018 and the learning that we have. And Mark is here, I'll let him address that. But I also would say that we're excited about the options that we provided for our customers during the year as well on same-day delivery for car and van service for product out of our stores.

是的。史蒂夫，我們對 2018 年開始的試點以及所取得的經驗感到非常興奮。馬克在這裡，我會讓他解決這個問題。但我也想說，我們對今年為客戶提供的選項感到非常興奮，包括透過汽車和貨車將產品從我們的商店運出並提供當日送達的服務。

Yes. Just as a reminder, we have our 5 direct fulfillment centers already up, providing 1- and 2-day service to over 90% of the population. We've got our Interline Brands facilities, now Home Depot Pro, that give us near national coverage with next-day delivery via 700 private fleet trucks. We've opened 3 market delivery operations. And we have openings planned and groundbreakings planned through the year on the various new platforms, market delivery operations, flatbed delivery centers, et cetera. So we're looking forward to that. And of course, we have our car delivery and van delivery fast options there with 40% coverage of the U.S. population for low-cost car delivery and 70% with van coverage.

是的。提醒一下，我們已經建立了 5 個直接履行中心，為 90％ 以上的人口提供 1 天和 2 天的服務。我們擁有自己的 Interline Brands 設施（現為 Home Depot Pro），透過 700 輛私人車隊卡車提供隔日送達服務，涵蓋近乎全國的範圍。我們已開設3個市場配送業務。我們計劃全年在各種新平台、市場交付運營、平板交付中心等方面進行開業和奠基。所以我們對此充滿期待。當然，我們也有汽車送貨和貨車送貨的快速選擇，低成本汽車送貨可覆蓋 40% 的美國人口，貨車送貨可覆蓋 70% 的美國人口。

And then just a quick follow-up, maybe more of a modeling question, right, as it relates to D&A specifically. Can you -- because I think if you walk back to the Analyst Day in '17, there was a -- I guess an average 3-year D&A run rate, right, that was called out. Can you just update us on how that's -- what we should be building in as we look out to 2020?

然後只是一個快速的後續問題，可能更多的是一個建模問題，對吧，因為它與 D&A 具體相關。你能嗎？您能否向我們介紹一下我們在 2020 年應該進行哪些建設？

So I think in our guidance, we gave you a D&A number of, what did we say, $2.3 billion. Some of that flows through cost of goods sold. So on the expense line, you could plan about $2 billion of D&A on the expense line, and the remaining $300 million would be up on the cost of goods sold.

因此我認為，在我們的指引中，我們給了你一個 D&A 數字，我們說過 23 億美元。其中一部分流入銷售商品成本。因此，在費用項目上，您可以規劃約 20 億美元的 D&A，剩餘的 3 億美元將用於銷售成本。

And then any comment as we look out to 2020 relative to the 3-year plan you laid out during the Analyst Day for D&A?

那麼，當我們展望 2020 年時，您對於您在 D&A 分析師日期間制定的三年計劃有何評論？

Just keep it at that -- about that rate.

就保持這個速度——大約這個速度。

Our next question comes from the line of Zack Fadem with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Zack Fadem。

You talked about some of the dynamics around the transition to the spring selling season. With the later spring last year, is there anything that gives you confidence this year from either a weather to-date or product perspective? And just given the calendar shift, you gave some helpful color. But curious whether you anticipate the Q1 comp to be above or below the full year comp growth, just given the full...

您談到了春季銷售旺季過渡的一些動態。去年春天來得晚，從目前的天氣或產品角度來看，今年有什麼讓您有信心嗎？鑑於日曆的變化，您給出了一些有用的信息。但我很好奇，您是否預計第一季的同比增長將高於還是低於全年的同比增長，只是考慮到全年…

I mean, I would -- I'd start with what Carol said earlier. And that is we do use a multiyear average model in terms of planning. And when you look at that model, it suggests that we'll actually see spring break in Q1.

我的意思是，我會——我會從卡羅爾之前說的話開始。也就是說，我們在規劃方面確實使用了多年平均模型。當你查看該模型時，它表明我們實際上會在第一季看到春假。

We don't provide quarterly guidance, as you know. So I'd like to go back to the half. That's the easiest way to think about our business. We expect the first half comp to be lower than the full year comp.

如您所知，我們不提供季度指導。所以我想回到一半。這是思考我們業務的最簡單的方式。我們預計上半年的年比銷售額將低於全年的年銷售額。

Okay, fair enough. And could you comment on how some of the external factors in '19, like lower gas prices and mortgage rates for the consumer, are incorporated in the '19 outlook? And then second, what are you assuming around the tariff environment?

好吧，夠公平。您能否評論一下 2019 年的一些外部因素（例如較低的汽油價格和消費者抵押貸款利率）是如何融入 2019 年的前景？第二，您對關稅環境有何假設？

We, for years, have tried to correlate gas prices to our business. We've never been able to draw a correlation on that. And so we -- there's nothing built in for that, whatsoever. And then we have assumed nothing beyond what is in place today on tariffs. We just feel -- we don't try to plan for something that hasn't happened.

多年來，我們一直嘗試將油價與我們的業務關聯起來。我們從來沒能得到二者之間的關聯。所以我們—根本沒有為此內建任何功能。除了目前實施的關稅以外，我們沒有做任何其他假設。我們只是感覺——我們不會為還沒有發生的事情做計劃。

Yes, as we've said with tariffs, that's been manageable. Good news, obviously, Sunday, and it looks like negotiations are continuing. But all the tariffs that have been put in place to date, we have managed through that without any issue.

是的，正如我們所說的關稅，這是可控的。顯然，週日是個好消息，而且談判似乎還在繼續。但對於迄今為止實施的所有關稅，我們都順利通過了。

Our final question today will come from Seth Sigman with Credit Suisse.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的塞思·西格曼。

So regarding the weather impact and the impact on exterior projects, you gave us the 85 basis point impact. I'm curious, during these types of periods, do you actually see an offsetting benefit on indoor projects? And then just narrowing in on the exterior projects, to what extent are you already starting to see those come back or expect to see those come back in that first half outlook?

因此，關於天氣影響和對外部專案的影響，您給了我們 85 個基點的影響。我很好奇，在這些時期，您是否真的看到室內專案的抵銷效益？然後縮小外部項目的範圍，您在多大程度上已經開始看到這些項目的復甦或預計在上半年前景中看到這些項目的復甦？

Yes, I mean, generally, as Ted mentioned, we felt very positive about our paint business. And so customers have a tendency to focus inside when they can't do work outside. And that is something that happens in the business overall. So we felt good about the interior side of the business.

是的，我的意思是，總的來說，正如泰德所提到的，我們對我們的油漆業務非常樂觀。因此，當顧客無法在室外工作時，他們往往會把注意力集中在室內。這正是整個商業領域都會發生的事。因此，我們對業務的內部發展感到十分滿意。

Yes, I would say, every cycle, we have had a bad weather. Craig mentioned the huge swings in a market like Los Angeles. We have seen that consistently across all our markets. Last spring, for example, we were delayed. And as soon as the weather broke, our business just exploded. And we see that across markets now weekend-to-weekend. So full expectation that when spring comes, we're ready for it. We got great, innovative products. We're in stock and ready to go for our customers.

是的，我想說，每個週期我們都會遇到惡劣的天氣。克雷格提到了洛杉磯這樣的市場的巨大波動。我們在所有市場都看到了這個現象。例如，去年春天，我們的工作進度被耽擱了。一旦天氣轉好，我們的生意就迅速暴增。我們現在每個週末都能在各個市場上看到這種現象。我們滿懷期待，當春天到來時，我們已經做好準備。我們擁有優秀的、創新的產品。我們有大量庫存，隨時可以為客戶提供。

Yes.

是的。

Got you. Okay. And then just one follow-up on the pricing environment. You talked a lot about commodity prices. Can you just talk a little bit about price changes that you're seeing in non-commodity categories? And if you're embedding anything in the guidance?

明白了。好的。然後只需對定價環境進行一次跟進。您談了很多關於商品價格的問題。能否稍微談談您所看到的非商品類別的價格變動？如果您在指南中嵌入任何內容呢？

There's nothing in the guidance, for sure, across-the-board, not just with tariffs, but we've seen through '18 an increased cost expectation from our suppliers just -- whether it's wages or transportation, supply chain, fuel, things that they've experienced. But we've digested all of that and run that across a full year basis, and we don't see any increased pressure going into '19. If anything, as you mentioned, things like fuel and transportation capacity and hopefully the tariff outlook, all those pressures should be abating a bit.

當然，指導意見中沒有任何全面的規定，不僅僅是關稅，但我們已經看到，透過2018年，我們的供應商的成本預期有所增加——無論是工資、運輸、供應鏈、燃料，這些都是他們所經歷的。但我們已經消化了所有這些，並將其在全年基礎上運行，我們認為2019年的壓力不會增加。正如您所說，燃料和運輸能力以及關稅前景等因素，所有這些壓力都應該減輕。

So thank you for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you on our first quarter earnings call in May.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。我們期待在五月第一季財報電話會議上與您交談。

This will conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。