家得寶 (HD) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to The Home Depot Q3 2018 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Isabel Janci. Please go ahead, ma'am.

大家好，歡迎參加家得寶 2018 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製。（操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給 Isabel Janci。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Joining us on our call today are Craig Menear, Chairman, CEO and President; Ted Decker, Executive Vice President of Merchandising; and Carol Tomé, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services.

謝謝大家，早安。今天參加我們電話會議的有董事長、執行長兼總裁 Craig Menear；泰德‧德克爾 (Ted Decker)，商品銷售執行副總裁；以及財務長兼企業服務執行副總裁 Carol Tomé。

Following our prepared remarks, the call will be open for questions. Questions will be limited to analysts and investors. (Operator Instructions) If we are unable to get your question during the call, please call our Investor Relations Department at (770) 384-2387.

在我們準備好發言之後，電話會議將開放提問。問題僅限於分析師和投資者。(操作員指示)如果我們在通話期間無法聽取您的問題，請致電我們的投資者關係部 (770) 384-2387。

Before I turn the call over to Craig, let me remind you that today's press release and the presentations made by our executives include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Today's discussion will also include certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of these measures is provided on our website.

在我將電話轉給克雷格之前，請允許我提醒您，今天的新聞稿和我們高管的陳述包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素。今天的討論還將包括某些非公認會計準則指標。這些措施的協調已在我們的網站上提供。

Now let me turn the call over to Craig.

現在讓我把電話轉給克雷格。

Thank you, Isabel, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased with our results in the quarter. Sales for the third quarter were up 5.1% from last year to $26.3 billion. Comp sales were up 4.8% from last year and our U.S. comps were positive 5.4%. Diluted earnings per share were $2.51 in the third quarter.

謝謝你，伊莎貝爾，大家早安。我們對本季的業績感到滿意。第三季銷售額比去年同期成長 5.1% 至 263 億美元。同店銷售額較去年同期成長 4.8%，其中美國同店銷售額成長 5.4%。第三季每股攤薄收益為 2.51 美元。

From a geographic perspective, sales were strong across the U.S. All but one of our 19 regions posted positive comps. The exception was our Gulf region, which faced tough compares associated with the anniversary-ing of Hurricane Harvey.

從地理區域來看，美國各地的銷售都很強勁。 我們 19 個地區中，除一個地區外，其他所有地區的銷售額均實現了正增長。例外的是我們的墨西哥灣地區，該地區面臨著與颶風哈維週年紀念相關的嚴峻考驗。

Recall that we are lapping almost $300 million of hurricane-related sales from the third quarter of last year. While this quarter brought hurricanes Florence and Michael, the scope of devastation was more compact from a geographical perspective than what we experienced in prior year. Nonetheless, these storms did inflict significant damage in our community, and our thoughts and prayers are with them as they began the recovery efforts. Our thoughts and prayers also go out to all those who are currently being impacted by the deadly fires in California.

回想一下，去年第三季度，颶風相關的銷售額已經接近 3 億美元。雖然本季遭遇了佛羅倫斯颶風和邁克爾颶風，但從地理角度來看，其破壞範圍比去年同期更為緊湊。儘管如此，這些風暴確實對我們的社區造成了重大破壞，當他們開始恢復工作時，我們的思念和祈禱與他們同在。我們也向所有受到加州致命火災影響的人們致以慰問和祈禱。

Internationally, both Canada and Mexico posted positive comps in local currency. As Ted will detail, both ticket and transactions grew in the quarter. Pro sales once again outpaced DIY sales, but we continue to see a healthy balance of growth from both Pro and DIY customers as they shop across the store. We believe this is a testament to the overall strength of demand in the home improvement market.

從國際來看，加拿大和墨西哥均公佈了以當地貨幣計算的正成長數據。正如 Ted 所詳述的，本季的票價和交易量均有所增長。Pro 的銷售額再次超過了 DIY 的銷售額，但我們繼續看到 Pro 和 DIY 顧客在整個商店購物時保持著健康的成長平衡。我們相信這證明了家裝市場整體需求的強勁。

Our digital business continues to be another source of growth. Online traffic growth was healthy. In third quarter, online sales grew approximately 28% from the third quarter of 2017. Customers continue to respond to ongoing investments and enhancements we are making to drive a frictionless, interconnected customer experience. For example, Buy Online, Ship To Store and Buy Online, Pick-up In Store sales both grew faster than the overall online sales growth rate for the third quarter. Another key component of the best-in-class interconnected shopping experience centers on enhanced delivery and fulfillment options. As you know, we are in very early stages of a 5-year investment journey in the One Home Depot supply chain to enable the fastest, most efficient delivery network in home improvement.

我們的數位業務繼續成為另一個成長源。線上流量成長健康。第三季度，線上銷售額較 2017 年第三季成長約 28%。我們為提供順暢、互聯的客戶體驗而不斷進行的投資和改進，客戶對此持續做出回應。例如，線上購買、送貨到店和線上購買、店內取貨的銷售額成長速度均快於第三季整體線上銷售額的成長率。一流互聯購物體驗的另一個關鍵要素是增強的配送和履行選項。如您所知，我們對「One Home Depot」供應鏈進行為期 5 年的投資，目前正處於初期階段，旨在打造最快、最高效的家裝配送網路。

Today, we can reach approximately 95% of the U.S. population in 2 days or less with parcel shipping. The anticipated end state of the One Home Depot supply chain will enable us to reach 90% of the U.S. population with same-day or next-day delivery capability for an extended SKU offering that includes big and bulky goods. In order to get there, we must invest in a number of different facilities to offer greater depth and breadth of SKU availability.

如今，我們可以在兩天甚至更短的時間內透過包裹運輸覆蓋大約 95％ 的美國人口。預計「一個家得寶」供應鏈的最終狀態將使我們能夠為 90％ 的美國人口提供當日或隔天送達的擴展 SKU 服務，包括大件和笨重商品。為了實現這一目標，我們必須投資多種不同的設施，以提供更大深度和廣度的 SKU 可用性。

We told you that 2018 would be the year of the pilot as we test and learn with new fulfillment centers. I am pleased to report that we are on track with our plan, and we are live with our first few pilot facilities, with additional pilots scheduled to open throughout the rest of this year and early next year.

我們告訴過您，2018 年將是試點年，因為我們將透過新的履行中心進行測試和學習。我很高興地報告，我們的計劃正在順利進行，我們的首批幾個試點設施已經投入運營，更多的試點設施計劃在今年剩餘時間和明年年初開放。

As we work on our long-term initiatives, we are also focused on meeting our customers' immediate delivery needs. We have made great progress with our store delivery enhancements as our car and van express delivery offerings now enables same-day delivery of store goods. Since rolling out car and van delivery to over 40% of the U.S. population, we have seen increased utilization from both our Pro and DIY customers.

在我們實施長期計畫的同時，我們也專注於滿足客戶的即時交付需求。我們在店內送貨服務方面取得了巨大進步，我們的汽車和貨車快遞服務現在可以實現店內商品的當日送達。自從向超過 40％ 的美國人口推出汽車和貨車運送服務以來，我們看到專業和 DIY 客戶的使用率都有所增加。

As we continue to work towards the 2020 goals that we laid out for you in December of 2017, let me update you on some of our investments, all of which focus on delivering exceptional customer service, driving productivity and simplifying operations. We have implemented our way-finding sign and store refresh package in approximately 700 stores, ahead of our initial plan. We continue to make progress on the rollout of our redesigned front-end areas and pickup lockers among other investments. We are also working to remove friction for our customers while helping our associates to be more productive with their time. An example of this is the deployment of our new overhead management application.

在我們繼續努力實現 2017 年 12 月為您制定的 2020 年目標的同時，讓我向您介紹我們的一些投資，所有這些投資都專注於提供卓越的客戶服務、提高生產力和簡化營運。我們已在約 700 家商店實施了路線指引和商店更新套餐，這比我們最初的計劃提前了。我們在重新設計的前端區域和取貨櫃的推出以及其他投資方面繼續取得進展。我們也致力於為客戶消除摩擦，同時幫助我們的員工更有效地利用時間。我們的新的間接費用管理應用程式的部署就是一個例子。

As you've heard us say before, customer service starts with being in-stock. But beyond just having the product in-stock, it has to be on the shelf for our customers to purchase, not stored in an overhead. Prior to the rollout of the overhead management application, the only way an associate could locate a product in our overheads was to manually look for it. This new application on FIRST Phones helps associates locate product in overheads quickly and accurately, saving them time, improving the customer experience and enabling better inventory management.

正如您之前聽我們說​​過的，客戶服務從有庫存開始。但是，除了庫存有產品之外，產品還必須擺在貨架上供客戶購買，而不是存放在高架倉庫中。在推出間接費用管理應用程式之前，員工找到間接費用中產品的唯一方法就是手動尋找。FIRST Phones 上的這項新應用程式可協助員工快速且準確地找到高架產品，從而節省時間、改善客戶體驗並實現更好的庫存管理。

Turning to our outlook. As Carol will discuss in more in detail, we are updating our sales and earnings guidance for the year. We now expect fiscal 2018 sales growth of approximately 7.2% and diluted earnings per share of $9.75. We face the headwinds from last year's storm-related sales in the fourth quarter, but we believe the drivers of home improvement spend are supportive of our business. We remain excited about the investments we are making to ensure that we deliver the best customer experience in home improvement.

轉向我們的展望。正如卡羅爾將更詳細地討論的那樣，我們正在更新今年的銷售和獲利預測。我們現在預計 2018 財年銷售額將成長約 7.2%，每股稀釋收益為 9.75 美元。我們在去年第四季面臨與風暴有關的銷售阻力，但我們相信家居裝修支出的驅動因素對我們的業務具有支持作用。我們對正在進行的投資感到興奮，這是為了確保我們在家居裝修方面提供最佳的客戶體驗。

I want to close by thanking our associates for their hard work and continued dedication to our customers. Our associates not only work hard to serve our customers in our aisles, but their efforts extend to the communities in which we operate. This quarter marked our 8th annual Celebration of Service campaign in which our associates volunteered over 100,000 hours in support of veteran housing needs. In fact, our associates and nonprofit partners have been hands-on in transforming over 40,000 veteran homes and facilities since 2011. We are very proud of our associates, who live our values every day. And given that Veterans Day was earlier this week, let me take this opportunity to thank those that have served our country.

最後，我要感謝我們的同事的辛勤工作和對客戶的持續奉獻。我們的員工不僅努力為店內的客戶提供服務，而且他們的努力也延伸到我們經營所在的社區。本季是我們第八屆年度服務慶祝活動，我們的員工自願投入超過 100,000 小時來支持退伍軍人的住房需求。事實上，自 2011 年以來，我們的同事和非營利合作夥伴一直親力親為地改造超過 40,000 個退伍軍人住宅和設施。我們為我們的員工感到非常自豪，他們每天都實踐我們的價值觀。鑑於本週早些時候是退伍軍人節，請允許我藉此機會感謝那些為我們的國家服務的人們。

And with that, let me turn the call over to Ted.

現在，請允許我將電話轉給泰德。

Thanks, Craig, and good morning, everyone. We were pleased with our results in the third quarter. The core of our store continues to perform well, and we saw growth with both our Pro and DIY customers.

謝謝，克雷格，大家早安。我們對第三季的業績感到滿意。我們商店的核心業務持續表現良好，專業客戶和 DIY 客戶數量均有所成長。

Looking at our departments, comps in appliances, electrical, plumbing, tools, decor and flooring were above the company average. All of our other departments, but lighting, were positive, but below the company average. The comp in lighting was essentially flat.

縱觀我們的部門，家電、電氣、管道、工具、裝飾和地板等部門的業績均高於公司平均水平。除照明部門外，我們所有其他部門的表現都很好，但低於公司平均水平。燈光組合基本平坦。

In the third quarter, comp average ticket increased 3.5% and comp transactions increased 1.2%. Commodity prices were volatile in the quarter. While inflation in lumber, building materials and copper positively impacted average ticket growth by approximately 61 basis point in the quarter, today lumber prices are below 2017 levels. In addition, foreign exchange rates negatively impacted average ticket growth by approximately 43 basis points. We continue to see strength in big-ticket projects during the quarter. Big-ticket sales, or transactions over $1000, which represent approximately 20% of U.S. sales, were up 9.1% in the third quarter. A few drivers behind the increase in big-ticket sales were vinyl plank flooring, windows, appliances and water heaters.

第三季度，同店平均票價上漲 3.5%，同店交易量上漲 1.2%。本季大宗商品價格波動。雖然木材、建築材料和銅的通膨對本季平均票價成長產生了約 61 個基點的正面影響，但目前木材價格低於 2017 年的水準。此外，外匯匯率對平均票價成長產生了約43個基點的負面影響。本季度，我們繼續看到大型專案的強勁表現。大額銷售（即交易金額超過 1,000 美元的商品）約占美國銷售額的 20%，第三季成長了 9.1%。推動高價商品銷售成長的幾個因素包括乙烯基板地板、窗戶、電器和熱水器。

Once again, we saw strong performance in many Pro-heavy categories, as Pro sales grew faster than the company's average comp. Pro-heavy categories like power tools, concrete and several plumbing and electrical categories all had comps above the company average.

我們再次看到許多 Pro 為主的類別表現強勁，因為 Pro 的銷售額成長速度快於公司的平均水準。電動工具、混凝土以及多個管道和電氣類別等專業性較強的類別的銷售額均高於公司平均水平。

We also continue to see a healthy and growing DIY customer as they engaged with us across the store. Categories like safety and security, vanities, lawnmowers, ceiling fans and interior and exterior paint showed strong growth in the quarter.

我們也看到 DIY 客戶在商店各處與我們互動，數量不斷增加。安全和安保、梳妝台、割草機、吊扇以及內外牆塗料等類別在本季度呈現強勁增長。

In the third quarter, we hosted several events that helped drive traffic and create excitement in our stores. We were pleased with our annual Halloween Harvest and Labor Day events, which recorded solid growth year-over-year.

第三季度，我們舉辦了多項活動，有助於增加門市客流量，並營造出熱鬧的氛圍。我們對年度萬聖節豐收和勞動節活動感到非常滿意，這些活動同比均實現了穩步增長。

As we continue to focus on enhancing the in-store experience for our customers, I'd like to highlight some recent initiatives we have been working on with MET, our merchandising execution team. This seasoned team manages set integrity and executes resets throughout the store, bringing best-in-class speed to market. MET leverages advanced analytics and proprietary technology to drive productivity and efficiency in our stores. We use real-time data to understand what categories require attention and leverage our FIRST Phones to direct the work activity of our MET associates.

我們將繼續致力於提升顧客的店內體驗，我想強調一下我們與商品銷售執行團隊 MET 合作開展的一些最新舉措。這支經驗豐富的團隊負責管理整個商店的設定完整性並執行重置，從而將一流的速度推向市場。MET 利用先進的分析和專有技術來提高我們商店的生產力和效率。我們使用即時數據來了解需要關注的類別，並利用我們的 FIRST 手機來指導我們的 MET 員工的工作活動。

We want to thank our supplier partners, who continue to see the power of partnering with The Home Depot. Our suppliers entrust us with many exclusives and innovative product launches, in large part because of our 400,000 plus Orange-Blooded associates and the enthusiasm they bring to our aisles every day.

我們要感謝我們的供應商合作夥伴，他們繼續看到與家得寶合作的力量。我們的供應商委託我們推出許多獨家和創新產品，這很大程度上要歸功於我們超過 40 萬名 Orange-Blooded 員工以及他們每天為我們的貨架帶來的熱情。

Two recent additions to our portfolio of exclusive brands are Stanley hand tools and Troy-Bilt outdoor power equipment. Adding Stanley to our lineup of Milwaukee, DEWALT, Husky, Crescent, Empire, Wiss, BESSEY and Klein exclusive brands makes us the #1 destination for hand tools. And Troy-Bilt complements our leading lineup of exclusive outdoor power equipment brands, including RYOBI, Toro, Honda, Cub Cadet, ECHO, EGO, DEWALT and Milwaukee. In fact, 14 of the 15 top-rated gas self-propelled lawnmowers in the market are big box exclusive to The Home Depot.

我們的獨家品牌組合最近又增加了兩個新成員：史丹利 (Stanley) 手動工具和特洛伊-比爾特 (Troy-Bilt) 戶外電動設備。將 Stanley 添加到我們的 Milwaukee、DEWALT、Husky、Crescent、Empire、Wiss、BESSEY 和 Klein 獨家品牌陣容中，使我們成為手動工具的首選目的地。Troy-Bilt 補充了我們領先的獨家戶外動力裝備品牌陣容，包括 RYOBI、Toro、Honda、Cub Cadet、ECHO、EGO、DEWALT 和 Milwaukee。事實上，市場上排名前 15 的汽油自走式割草機中有 14 款都是家得寶 (The Home Depot) 獨家銷售的。

Looking to the fourth quarter, we are excited about the upcoming holiday season. In addition to our comprehensive holiday decor offerings, we are thrilled with our 2018 gift center. This gift center is our best yet and features a number of special buys from our leading tool and power tool accessory brands that are also exclusive to The Home Depot, including RYOBI, RIDGID, Milwaukee, Makita, Diablo and Husky.

展望第四季度，我們對即將到來的假期感到興奮。除了全面的節日裝飾外，我們還對 2018 年的禮品中心感到非常滿意。該禮品中心是我們迄今為止最好的禮品中心，提供來自我們領先工具和電動工具配件品牌的許多特價商品，這些品牌也是家得寶獨家銷售的，包括 RYOBI、RIDGID、Milwaukee、Makita、Diablo 和 Husky。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Carol.

說完這些，我想把電話轉給卡蘿。

Thank you, Ted, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, total sales were $26.3 billion, an increase of 5.1% from last year. Recall that at the beginning of fiscal 2018, we adopted a new accounting standard pertaining to revenue recognition. The new standard changes the geography of certain items on our income statement but has no impact on operating profits.

謝謝你，泰德，大家早安。第三季總銷售額為263億美元，較去年同期成長5.1%。回想一下，在2018財年伊始，我們採用了有關收入確認的新會計準則。新標準改變了我們損益表中某些項目的地理位置，但對營業利潤沒有影響。

In the third quarter, the change in accounting positively impacted sales growth by $64 million. Further, during the third quarter, a stronger U.S. dollar negatively impacted total sales growth by approximately $110 million or 0.4%.

第三季度，會計核算的變化對銷售額成長產生了 6,400 萬美元的正面影響。此外，第三季度，美元走強對總銷售額成長產生了約 1.1 億美元或 0.4% 的負面影響。

Our total company comps were positive 4.8% for the quarter, with positive comps of 6.7% in August, 4.1% in September and 3.8% in October. Comps in the U.S. were positive 5.4% for the quarter, with positive comps of 7.5% in August, 4.7% in September and 4.2% in October. The cadence of our monthly comps is due in large part to hurricane-related sales. In the third quarter of fiscal 2017, we experienced approximately $282 million of hurricane-related sales and the majority of those sales occurred in September and October.

本季度我們公司整體同店銷售額成長 4.8%，其中 8 月同店銷售額成長 6.7%，9 月同店銷售額成長 4.1%，10 月同店銷售額成長 3.8%。本季美國同店銷售額成長 5.4%，其中 8 月同店銷售額成長 7.5%，9 月成長 4.7%，10 月成長 4.2%。我們的月度同店銷售額的節奏很大程度上歸因於颶風相關的銷售。2017 財年第三季度，我們經歷了約 2.82 億美元的颶風相關銷售額，其中大部分發生在九月和十月。

In the third quarter of this year, we had approximately $150 million of sales related to both the 2017 and 2018 hurricanes. These sales were more equally spread across the quarter. We estimate that hurricane-related sales positively impacted U.S. comps by 60 basis points in August, but negatively impacted U.S. comps by 80 basis points in September and 120 basis points in October.

今年第三季度，我們與 2017 年和 2018 年颶風相關的銷售額約為 1.5 億美元。這些銷售額在本季的分佈更加均勻。我們估計，颶風相關銷售對 8 月份美國同店銷售額產生了 60 個基點的正面影響，但對 9 月份美國同店銷售額產生了 80 個基點的負面影響，對 10 月份美國同店銷售額產生了 120 個基點的負面影響。

In the third quarter, our gross margin was 34.8%, an increase of 23 basis points from last year. The year-over-year change in our gross margin reflects the following factors: first, the new accounting standard drove $147 million of gross profit or 47 basis points of gross margin expansion; second, higher supply chain and transportation costs caused approximately 23 basis points of gross margin contraction; and finally, the net impact of all other drivers of gross margin resulted in 1 basis point of contraction.

第三季度，我們的毛利率為34.8%，比去年同期增加了23個基點。我們毛利率的年比變化反映了以下因素：首先，新會計準則推動毛利增加 1.47 億美元，即毛利率擴大 47 個基點；二是供應鏈和運輸成本上升，導致毛利率下降約23個基點；最後，其他所有影響毛利率的因素的淨影響導致毛利率收縮1個基點。

For the year, we now expect our gross margin rate to expand by approximately 37 basis points. In the third quarter, operating expense as a percent of sales increased by 23 basis points to 20.1% due to the following factors: first, we experienced 90 basis points of expense leverage in BAU, or business as usual, expense. Our strong leverage in the core of our business was driven by good expense control, but also reflects some year-over-year benefit due to certain hurricane-related expenses that did not repeat this year; second, the new accounting standard resulted in a $147 million increase to our operating expenses and caused 51 basis point of operating expense deleverage; and finally, expenses related to our strategic investment plan of roughly $164 million resulted in approximately 62 basis points of operating expense deleverage.

我們預計今年的毛利率將擴大約 37 個基點。第三季度，營業費用佔銷售額的百分比增加了 23 個基點，達到 20.1%，原因如下：首先，我們在 BAU（即正常業務費用）中經歷了 90 個基點的費用槓桿。我們核心業務的強大槓桿率是由良好的費用控制推動的，同時也反映了由於某些颶風相關費用今年沒有重複而帶來的同比收益；第二，新會計準則導致我們的營業費用增加1.47億美元，並造成營業費用去槓桿51個基點；最後，與我們的策略投資計畫相關的費用約 1.64 億美元導致營業費用去槓桿率下降約 62 個基點。

For the year, we now expect our fiscal 2018 operating expenses to grow at approximately 131% of our sales growth rate. Our operating margin for the third quarter was 14.7%, essentially flat with last year. Interest and other expense for the third quarter decreased by $23 million to $224 million, largely due to tax settlements that occurred in the quarter.

我們預計 2018 財年的營業費用將以銷售額成長率的約 131% 的速度成長。我們第三季的營業利潤率為14.7%，與去年基本持平。第三季的利息和其他支出減少了 2,300 萬美元，至 2.24 億美元，這主要由於本季發生的稅務結算。

In the third quarter, our effective tax rate was 21.4% and for the year-to-date was 23.3%, lower than last year and our guidance. The lower rate reflects tax reform and a few other discrete items that were recorded in the quarter, including a reconcilement of the provisional tax charge we recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. For fiscal 2018, we now expect our effective tax rate will be approximately 24%.

第三季度，我們的有效稅率為 21.4%，年初至今的有效稅率為 23.3%，低於去年同期和我們的預期。較低的稅率反映了稅收改革和本季記錄的一些其他單獨項目，包括我們去年第四季記錄的臨時稅費的核對。對於2018財年，我們預計有效稅率約為24%。

Our diluted earnings per share for the third quarter were $2.51, an increase of 36.4% from last year. Total sales per square foot for the third quarter were approximately $434, up 5.2% from last year. Compared to last year, inventory dollars grew by $1.3 billion to $14.8 billion and inventory turns remained at 5.2x. The growth in our inventory versus last year reflects the investments we are making to accelerate merchandising resets, higher in-stock levels than we had 1 year ago, and some pull forward of planned inventory purchases.

我們第三季的每股攤薄收益為 2.51 美元，比去年同期成長 36.4%。第三季每平方英尺的總銷售額約為 434 美元，比去年增長 5.2%。與去年相比，庫存金額增加了 13 億美元，達到 148 億美元，庫存週轉率維持在 5.2 倍。與去年相比，我們的庫存有所增長，這反映了我們為加速商品重置、提高庫存水準（比一年前更高）以及提前規劃庫存採購而進行的投資。

In the third quarter, we repurchased $2.5 billion or approximately 12.6 million shares of outstanding stock. We also received approximately 1 million shares related to an ASR program we initiated in the second quarter. Year-to-date, we have repurchased approximately $5.5 billion of our outstanding shares, and we now expect to repurchase approximately $8 billion of our outstanding shares for the year. We plan to fund our fourth quarter share repurchases with cash on hand and with proceeds from incremental debt.

第三季度，我們回購了價值 25 億美元或約 1,260 萬股流通股。我們也收到了與第二季啟動的 ASR 計畫相關的約 100 萬股股票。年初至今，我們已經回購了約 55 億美元的流通股，目前我們預計今年將回購約 80 億美元的流通股。我們計劃利用庫存現金和增量債務收益來為第四季度的股票回購提供資金。

In the fourth quarter, we intend to replace $1.15 billion of senior notes that came due in September, and we may raise additional long-term indebtedness, which will take us closer to our targeted adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio of 2x. Computed on the average of beginning and ending long-term debt and equity for the trailing 12 months, return on invested capital was approximately 42.2%, 970 basis points higher than the third quarter of fiscal 2017.

在第四季度，我們打算取代 9 月到期的 11.5 億美元優先票據，並且我們可能會增加額外的長期債務，這將使我們更接近 2 倍調整後債務與 EBITDA 比率的目標。根據過去 12 個月期初和期末長期債務和股權的平均值計算，投資資本回報率約為 42.2%，比 2017 財年第三季高出 970 個基點。

Turning to our outlook for the remainder of the year. Remember that we have a directionally correct, but imperfect model that we use to forecast sales growth. It starts with GDP growth, which is strong. Consumer sentiment remains near all-time highs, and unemployment is the lowest it has been in nearly 50 years. Housing-related metrics are moderating, but the drivers of home improvement spend are supportive of our outlook. Home prices continue to appreciate, the housing stock is aging, households are being formed and housing continues to turn over. And while we see healthy home improvement demand, it is important to note that in the fourth quarter, we are up against approximately $380 million of hurricane-related sales.

談談我們對今年剩餘時間的展望。請記住，我們有一個方向正確但不完美的模型，我們用它來預測銷售成長。首先是強勁的 GDP 成長。消費者信心仍然接近歷史最高水平，失業率處於近50年來的最低水平。住房相關指標正在放緩，但家居裝修支出的驅動因素支持我們的前景。房價持續升值，房屋存量不斷老化，家庭不斷形成，住房不斷週轉。雖然我們看到了健康的家居裝修需求，但值得注意的是，在第四季度，我們面臨約 3.8 億美元的颶風相關銷售額。

Today, we are updating our fiscal 2018 sales guidance to reflect our year-to-date outperformance. We are also lifting our earnings per share guidance to reflect our expectations for fiscal 2018 gross margin, operating expense, share repurchases and tax rate. Remember that we guide off GAAP, and recall that fiscal 2018 will include a 53rd week. So the fourth quarter of fiscal 2018 will consist of 14 weeks.

今天，我們更新了 2018 財年銷售預期，以反映我們今年迄今的優異表現。我們也上調了每股盈餘預期，以反映我們對 2018 財年毛利率、營業費用、股票回購和稅率的預期。請記住，我們遵循 GAAP，並記住 2018 財年將包括第 53 週。因此，2018 財年第四季將有 14 週。

For fiscal 2018, we expect sales to increase by approximately 7.2% with positive comps as calculated on a 52-week basis of approximately 5.5%. For earnings per share, we expect fiscal 2018 diluted earnings per share to grow approximately 33.8% to $9.75.

對於 2018 財年，我們預計銷售額將成長約 7.2%，以 52 週計算，可比銷售額將成長約 5.5%。對於每股收益，我們預計 2018 財年每股攤薄收益將成長約 33.8% 至 9.75 美元。

With that, I would like to thank you for your participation in today's call. And Rochelle, we are now ready for questions.

最後，我要感謝您參加今天的電話會議。羅謝爾，現在我們可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will come from Christopher Horvers with JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的克里斯多福‧霍弗斯 (Christopher Horvers)。

So if you -- there are a lot of questions on the consumer in the home environment and housing. If you look at your fourth quarter guidance, it seems like inflation after some remnant benefit in the third quarter may be flat, may be a headwind. You also had -- have a harder compare in the hurricane front. So you're still guiding to about 4.5 for the fourth quarter assuming that the U.S. is going to be better than that because of FX. So what are you seeing in the business? What gives you the confidence to give that level of a guide?

所以如果您—對家庭環境和住房方面的消費者有很多疑問。如果你看一下第四季的預期，似乎通膨在第三季取得一些殘餘效益之後可能會趨於平穩，甚至可能成為一種阻力。您還必須—在颶風前線進行更艱難的比較。因此，您仍然預計第四季度的經濟成長將在 4.5 左右，因為假設美國經濟由於外匯因素會表現得更好。那麼您在業務中看到了什麼？是什麼讓您有信心擔任如此等級的導遊？

Chris, I'll give you a high-level and let Carol walk you through the details. Again, we see overall the environment for home improvement is solid. We're clearly up against significant hurricane numbers. But as we see it, basically, 2-year stacked comps would be comparable in the first half and the second half of the year as we look forward. And that's really based on the strength that we see for not only the home improvement factors, but what we have lined up for the back half of the year in terms of events and merchandise and great gift center that Ted talked about, we're excited about what we have going in the back half.

克里斯，我會給你一個大概的介紹，讓卡蘿向你詳細介紹。我們再次看到，整體而言，居家裝潢的環境是良好的。顯然，我們正面臨嚴重的颶風襲擊。但正如我們所看到的，基本上，展望未來，兩年期疊加的比較結果在上半年和下半年將是可比的。這實際上是基於我們所看到的不僅僅是家居裝修因素的強勁勢頭，而且還基於我們在活動、商品和泰德談到的大型禮品中心方面為下半年所安排的計劃，我們對下半年的計劃感到非常興奮。

That's right, Chris. And we get comfort from our guidance, not only from what we're seeing in the macro environment but from what we're seeing in our same sales. And we are pleased with how the quarter has begun.

沒錯，克里斯。我們的指引讓我們感到欣慰，這不僅是因為我們在宏觀環境中看到的情況，還因為我們在相同銷售中看到的情況。我們對本季的開局感到滿意。

Excellent. So I want to fast-forward a little bit on tariff risk. You had the experience with appliances that look like you largely passed through those price increases, but as you think about a more broad potential tariff risk to next year, how would you just size up your potential risk? And can you also talk about how you think about investment in sort of, in share? Some companies have commented that they would try to maintain the gross margin rate. How would you think about balancing gross margin rate versus, let's say, in certain categories, maybe flooring, trying to go after share and drive gross profit dollars?

出色的。所以我想稍微快速談談關稅風險。您在購買家用電器方面似乎基本上承受了價格上漲的影響，但當您想到明年更廣泛的潛在關稅風險時，您如何評估潛在風險？能談談您對股票投資的看法嗎？有公司表示將盡力維持毛利率。您如何考慮平衡毛利率，以及，例如在某些類別（例如地板）中，試圖追求份額並提高毛利？

So, Chris, I'll start and let Ted jump in here. We have seen, as you mentioned, tariffs impact in laundry, for example. The tariffs that have come through to date represent about 1% of U.S. purchases. And if we see more happen in January, and who knows what's going to happen, but if the 25% were to go in place, that's going to represent about 3.5% of U.S. purchases. And clearly, we'll work to mitigate as much of that as possible, but as you saw in laundry, you will see some impact in prices. The comment that I would make, as it relates to the second part of your question is, we run this business on a portfolio basis. And we will do everything we can to mitigate pressure on the customer to the best of our ability, but don't think of us taking cost in one area and that's where necessarily the retail gets applied. It's a portfolio approach, we're in the project business.

那麼，克里斯，我先開始，然後讓泰德加入進來。正如您所說，我們已經看到關稅對洗衣業的影響。迄今已實施的關稅約占美國採購總額的 1%。如果我們看到 1 月出現更多情況，誰知道會發生什麼，但如果 25% 的降幅到位，這將占美國購買量的 3.5% 左右。顯然，我們會盡力減輕這種影響，但正如你在洗衣業看到的那樣，你會看到價格受到一些影響。關於你問題的第二部分，我想說的是，我們是根據投資組合來經營這項業務的。我們將竭盡所能，盡最大努力減輕客戶的壓力，但不要認為我們會在某個領域承擔成本，而那一定是零售應用的地方。這是一種投資組合方法，我們從事的是專案業務。

Yes. I would add to that, Craig, it's -- manageable is the term I am using, Chris. Certainly, what we've seen today is more than manageable, particularly in the light of that portfolio approach that Craig described. But a couple comments of good news, you look at what happened with laundry and that's generally a MAP price industry. So the industry did take that price, largely attributable to tariffs. We also had steel cost in that as well as just the straight laundry tariff. And while there was an initial reaction to unit productivity, as we've now cycled through that several months, our laundry sales and unit productivity is on par, if not slightly better than the average of our overall appliance business. So we were able to cycle through that and would expect to see the same, given the strength of demand in other categories as well.

是的。克雷格，我想補充一點，克里斯，我使用的術語是可管理的。當然，我們今天看到的情況是可以控制的，特別是考慮到克雷格所描述的投資組合方法。但有幾個好消息，你看看洗衣業發生的情況，這通常是一個 MAP 價格行業。因此，該行業確實接受了這個價格，這主要歸因於關稅。其中也包括鋼材成本以及直接洗衣費。儘管最初對單位生產率有反應，但隨著我們經歷了這幾個月，我們的洗衣機銷售額和單位生產率與整個家電業務的平均水平相當，甚至略好一些。因此，我們能夠循環進行，並且考慮到其他類別的需求強勁，我們也希望看到相同的結果。

And next, we move on to Michael Lasser with UBS.

接下來我們請出瑞銀的麥可‧拉瑟 (Michael Lasser)。

So it sounds like your view is that home improvement demand has been and will be decoupled from housing. How long do you think that can persist? And what level of home prices and housing turnover would make you rethink that view?

所以聽起來您的觀點是家居裝修需求已經並且將會與住房脫鉤。您認為這種情況能持續多久？什麼程度的房價和房屋成交量會讓您重新考慮這個觀點？

So, Michael, I think, I and we would phrase that a bit differently. We have this directionally correct, but imperfect model that we use to forecast our sales outlook. As I mentioned, it starts with GDP and to that we add the benefit from a number of different housing metrics, including household formation, home price appreciation, the age of the housing stock and housing turnover. And if we look at those drivers, we think they all bode well for our outlook. Now our outlook would suggest that our fourth quarter comp will be lower than what we reported in the third quarter, but that's because we are up against almost $400 million of hurricane-related sales. And while we do expect to get hurricane-related sales in the fourth quarter, we don't expect to get $400 million worth of hurricane-related sales. So we factored that into our outlook. In terms of decoupling, there's one metric that's gotten a lot of attention recently and that's housing turnover. And if you look at housing turnover, housing turnover is lower than we thought it would be at the beginning of the year when we put together our directionally correct, but imperfect model. So we went back and calculated what we believe the impact of a lower housing turnover than what we had projected at the beginning of the year, what the impact has been to our outlook. And based on our model, which is not perfect, but based on our model, the impact has been 13 basis points. And then, one other correlation number to share with you, at least the way that we look at the world, we correlated housing turnover with transactions, and we don't do a smoothing approach. We do look at the actual data on a 1-month lag basis. If you look at historical correlation from 2000 to now, the correlation coefficient was 0.53, okay. But if you go and run it again from 2010 to now, it's 0.4. And if you run it from 2015 to now, it's 0.33. So it's decoupled a bit, we think, in large part because of the housing shortage in the U.S. But the way that we're talking about housing metrics is a bit like a Rubik's cube, and you just got to turn it and turn it and turn it until you form a point of view on what it means for home improvement spend.

因此，邁克爾，我認為，我和我們會用不同的方式來表達這一點。我們有這個方向正確但不完美的模型來預測我們的銷售前景。正如我所提到的，一切從 GDP 開始，然後我們再加上一系列不同住房指標帶來的好處，包括家庭組成、房價升值、房屋存量的年齡和住房週轉率。如果我們看看這些驅動因素，我們認為它們都對我們的前景有利。現在我們的展望表明，第四季的銷售額將低於第三季的銷售額，但這是因為我們面臨著近 4 億美元的颶風相關銷售額。雖然我們確實預期第四季會獲得颶風相關銷售額，但我們預計不會獲得價值 4 億美元的颶風相關銷售額。因此我們將這一點考慮進了我們的展望中。在脫鉤方面，最近有一個指標引起了很多關注，那就是房屋成交量。如果你看一下房屋成交量，你會發現住房成交量低於我們在年初建立方向正確但不完善的模型時所預期的水平。因此，我們回過頭來計算，我們認為住房週轉率低於我們年初預測的影響是什麼，以及這對我們的前景有何影響。根據我們的模型，雖然它並不完美，但根據我們的模型，影響已經達到 13 個基點。然後，我們要與大家分享另一個相關數字，至少從我們看待世界的角度來說，我們將住房週轉率與交易量關聯起來，而且我們不採用平滑方法。我們確實是以一個月滯後為基礎來查看實際數據。如果你查看從 2000 年到現在的歷史相關性，相關係數是 0.53，好吧。但如果你從 2010 年到現在再次運行，它是 0.4。如果從 2015 年到現在，這個數字是 0.33。因此，我們認為，這在很大程度上是由於美國的住房短缺。

Carol, that's helpful. And because you've guided for the next few years that comps will grow in the 5-ish percent range, so should we think about if housing turnover continues to decline at a similar rate and home prices start to moderate that the risk to that forecast would be in the 13 basis point-type range so would not be as significant as what would be implied by the headlines from those -- from that outlook?

卡羅爾，這很有幫助。而且由於您預測未來幾年可比銷售額將增長 5% 左右，所以我們是否應該考慮，如果住房週轉率繼續以類似的速度下降，且房價開始回落，那麼該預測的風險將在 13 個基點的範圍內，因此不會像新聞標題所暗示的那樣顯著——從這個角度來看？

Again, it's a Rubik's cube. You can't just look at turnover when you're turning the cube around. We would need to refresh our point of view on home price appreciation as well because that's been a big driver of our sales growth for sure. We've seen, since 2011, homeowners have had a 140% increase in their equity, now up to $124,000 per unit, so real wealth has been created. Home prices are projected to increase in 2019, albeit not at the rate that we've seen this year. So we are refreshing our point of view. We're not taking our sales growth targets down because we feel very comfortable with the targets that we laid out a year ago. But in February, we will give you the specific numbers for 2019.

再說一遍，這是一個魔術方塊。當你轉動魔術方塊時，你不能只看營業額。我們也必須更新房價升值的看法，因為這無疑是推動我們銷售成長的一大動力。我們看到，自 2011 年以來，房主的資產淨值增加了 140%，現在每套房屋淨值高達 124,000 美元，因此創造了真正的財富。預計 2019 年房價將會上漲，儘管漲幅不會像今年這麼大。因此我們正在更新我們的觀點。我們不會降低銷售成長目標，因為我們對一年前設定的目標非常滿意。但二月我們會給你2019年的具體數字。

And my follow-up question is, there's been a lot of well-documented pressure on your -- many of the home improvement vendors. And you've been vocal about seeing an increase in the requests for price increases for those that sell products into you. So putting aside the commodity inflation, are you starting to see an increase in product price inflation associated with the 90% of your sales that are related to products? And do you expect that, that's going to continue to increase from here?

我的後續問題是，許多家居裝潢供應商面臨許多壓力，這是有據可查的。您也曾直言，看到向您們銷售產品的客戶要求漲價的請求越來越多。那麼，撇開商品通膨不談，您是否開始看到與 90% 與產品相關的銷售額相關的產品價格通膨出現上漲？您預計，這個數字以後還會繼續增加嗎？

We're certainly seeing -- we are still seeing cost out, but we are seeing a net cost in that we haven't experienced in the last several years, and we are seeing an increase in supplier requests for cost in. But again, I'd say, they're facing some of the same costs that Carol called out. I mean, people are facing transportation costs, that's what we hear universally, again, outside, as you said, commodity or tariff. Things like transportation is universal and who knows what happens going into '19, but that seems to be the theme for the cost requests for '18.

我們當然看到——我們仍然看到成本支出，但我們看到淨成本是過去幾年從未經歷過的，而且我們看到供應商對成本支出的要求增加。但我還是要說，他們面臨著卡羅爾所說的同樣的成本。我的意思是，人們面臨著運輸成本，這是我們普遍聽到的，再說一遍，在外部，正如你所說，商品或關稅。交通等事物是普遍的，誰知道進入'19年會發生什麼，但這似乎是'18年成本要求的主題。

And Ted, just to follow-up on that. Since you quantify the impact that commodity inflation provides to your ticket, could you quantify the impact that non-commodity inflation provides to your ticket?

泰德，我來跟進一下這個問題。既然您量化了商品通膨對您的票價的影響，那麼您能否量化非商品通膨對您的票價的影響呢？

Yes. What we've seen to date it's less than ticket, than the 60 -- the commodity that we called out, the 61 basis points.

是的。到目前為止，我們看到的利率低於票面利率，低於我們所說的 60 個基點。

It's less than that.

比那還少。

And next, we will move to Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

接下來我們請 Oppenheimer 的 Brian Nagel 發言。

So I think I want to follow up a bit, at the risk of beating a horse here, on the macro environment, follow up to Michael's question. So Carol, when you talk about your algorithm, which the detail you gave so far is very helpful, thank you, it's particularly with regard to the housing turnover metrics. It sounds to me like you're talking more kind of from a coincidence standpoint and how your -- how shifts in these metrics impact sales at Home Depot and was it realtime? Have you done any workaround or any insights into how the kind of a lead-lag relationship? So if we are seeing this somewhat slower housing turn data now, who knows if that's going to persist or not, but could that lead -- could that have a larger impact upon sales at Home Depot at some point in the future?

因此，我想稍微跟進一下，儘管可能會有點冒犯，但還是就宏觀環境來回答邁克爾的問題。所以 Carol，當你談到你的演算法時，你迄今為止提供的細節非常有幫助，謝謝你，特別是關於住房週轉指標。在我看來，您更多的是從巧合的角度來談論的，以及這些指標的變化如何影響家得寶的銷售，以及它是即時的嗎？您是否採取過任何解決方法或對領先-滯後關係有何見解？因此，如果我們現在看到房屋市場復甦數據有所放緩，誰知道這種情況是否會持續下去，但這是否會導致——在未來某個時候對家得寶的銷售產生更大的影響？

Well, the correlation coefficients that I shared with you on turnover were based on a 1-month lag, and we haven't done a lot of leading lagging work yet, because the environment is so very different than it's been in prior cycles. So there's a lot of conversation, for example, on affordability, and we look at affordability too. But what happened last time around when affordability started to, if you will, slow down, is the underwriting standards loosened up dramatically and that's what led to the housing prices, as we all know. Well, that's not going to happen again because of the Dodd-Frank. And so you can't look at history necessarily to understand what's going to happen in the future, you got to kind of look at future and what's happening. And as we look at the future and what's happening, fundamentally, you got to look at the economy and the economy is good. People are employed, they have more income, they've got more to come with tax reform. So fundamentally, we feel very good about just the drivers of the spend in our business.

嗯，我和大家分享的有關營業額的相關係數是基於 1 個月的滯後，而且我們還沒有做很多領先的滯後工作，因為環境與之前的周期相比有很大不同。因此有許多關於負擔能力的討論，例如，我們也會考慮負擔能力。但是，上次當負擔能力開始下降時，承保標準就大幅放鬆，這就是眾所周知的導致房價上漲的原因。但是，由於《多德—弗蘭克法案》，這種事情不會再發生了。因此，你不能透過回顧歷史來了解未來會發生什麼，你必須著眼於未來和正在發生的事情。當我們展望未來和正在發生的事情時，從根本上來說，你必須專注於經濟，而且經濟狀況良好。人們有了就業，有了更多的收入，稅制改革將為他們帶來更多好處。因此從根本上來說，我們對業務支出的驅動因素感到非常滿意。

Got it. And then a follow-up question. There's been a lot written about and talked about with the certain markets within the United States where you've seen pronounced weakness in home sales as a result of either supply issues or housing prices, whatever. Are you -- and I think you've discussed this on prior calls, but as you look at your business, whether those areas are the Northeast, West Coast, wherever, are you seeing any -- in those type of markets, are you seeing any impact upon Home Depot sales?

知道了。然後是一個後續問題。關於美國某些市場的房屋銷售明顯疲軟，無論是由於供應問題還是房價問題，已經有許多文章進行了討論。您是否 - 我認為您在之前的電話會議中已經討論過這個問題，但是當您審視您的業務時，無論這些地區是東北部、西海岸還是其他任何地方，您是否看到 - 在那些類型的市場中，您是否看到對家得寶銷售有任何影響？

So we believe, like you, that housing is very local. And when you get into the areas of home price appreciation and affordability, it's really local. So we went market-by-market to see, are we seeing any measurable impact on our sales? And we just can't see it. Now we're hopefully smart enough to understand that you got to stay really on top of the data because the one watch-out, of course, is, will affordability with rising home prices and rising interest rates at some point set a market clearing price for all home price appreciation and home price appreciation stalls? We're not there. And in fact, home prices are projected to increase next year, but we're watching this. I'll just give you one example without giving you the numbers because we don't want to get into a habit of calling out performance by market. But if you look at LA, the affordability index in LA is terrible, it's 59. It's the worst it's been since 2008, and our sales in LA are very good.

因此，我們和您一樣相信，住房是非常本地化的。當你涉及房價升值和負擔能力時，它確實具有地方性。因此，我們逐一進行觀察，是否看到對我們的銷售有任何可衡量的影響？但我們就是看不到它。現在我們希望足夠聰明，能夠理解你必須真正掌握數據，因為當然，需要注意的一點是，在房價上漲和利率上升的情況下，負擔能力是否會在某個時候為所有房價升值和房價升值停滯設定一個市場清算價格？我們還沒到那裡。事實上，預計明年房價將會上漲，但我們正在關注這一點。我只舉一個例子，而不給數字，因為我們不想養成以市場來衡量表現的習慣。但如果你看看洛杉磯，那裡的負擔能力指數很糟糕，只有 59。這是2008年以來最糟糕的一次，我們在洛杉磯的銷售情況非常好。

And next, we move on to Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

接下來我們請出戈登哈斯凱特 (Gordon Haskett) 和查克格羅姆 (Chuck Grom)。

Just again on the housing front, Realogy spoke last week about a pretty significant slowdown in October; transactions down 6%. And looks like your October comps were 11.2% on the stack; adjusted for the hurricanes, say, up 12.4%. Still a little bit of a slowdown year-to-date. Just when wondering when you look at the month of October, was there anything significant from a volatility or where the customer was buying or how they were buying?

再次談到住房方面，Realogy 上週表示，10 月經濟將出現相當明顯的放緩；交易量下降6%。看起來您 10 月份的同店銷售額為 11.2%；經颶風調整後，上漲了 12.4%。今年迄今仍有一些放緩。只是想問一下，當你回顧十月時，波動性是否有什麼顯著的變化，或者客戶的購買地點或購買方式如何？

Overall, I mean, again, when you think about what happened in last year's hurricanes, as Carol called out, there was more hurricane pressure that we faced in October than in September. And clearly, September and October combined were much more significant from a pressure standpoint than the beginning of the quarter.

總的來說，我的意思是，當你回想去年颶風發生的情況時，正如卡羅爾所說的那樣，我們十月面臨的颶風壓力比九月更大。顯然，從壓力的角度來看，9月和10月的總壓力比本季初大得多。

And even if you ignore hurricanes, there wasn't anything dramatically different in the business other than the volatility in commodity prices. At the end of the quarter, we saw lumber prices fall precipitously, but, I think, Ted, that actually was, in some ways, a good news.

即使忽略颶風，除了商品價格的波動外，業務也不會有什麼顯著不同。在本季末，我們看到木材價格急劇下跌，但是，泰德，我認為，從某種程度上來說，這實際上是一個好消息。

No. That's very good news. If you look at some of the cost pressures we're seeing, on the one hand, with certain commodities and tariff, we've seen a dramatic decrease in wood fiber costs. So we went down -- at one point of the year, we were 40% above the prior year. We're now 24-ish percent below prior year. And as those lumber prices have come down, unit productivity has moved dramatically, and we believe kickstarting more project business, which is, obviously, great for us.

不。這是個非常好的消息。如果你看看我們看到的一些成本壓力，一方面，由於某些商品和關稅，我們看到木纖維成本急劇下降。因此我們的銷售額就下降了——有一段時間，我們的銷售額比前一年高出了 40％。我們現在比去年同期下降了 24% 左右。隨著木材價格下降，單位生產率大幅提升，我們相信這將啟動更多的項目業務，這對我們來說顯然是一件好事。

And one reason why we really aren't concerned about the fourth quarter from a commodity perspective is because we see this unit productivity.

從商品角度來看，我們並不擔心第四季的一個原因是因為我們看到了單位生產力。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just to switch gears, inventory levels relative to sales, they widened a bit more than the past couple of quarters. Curious, if that was intentional, as maybe you looked to bring in some items ahead of the tariffs or was it spillover from October? Maybe just frame out how you feel about currency? And where you think you'll end the year on the inventory front?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後換個角度來說，庫存水準相對於銷售額的比率比過去幾季有所擴大。好奇的是，這是否是故意的，因為也許你想在關稅實施之前引進一些商品，或者是 10 月的溢出效應？也許只是表達一下你對金錢的感受？您認為今年的庫存狀況會如何？

From an inventory standpoint, Mark's here and I'll let him talk -- speak as well. But we feel good about the overall quality of the inventory that we had, and the growth in inventory is really by design given a few factors.

從庫存的角度來看，馬克在這裡，我會讓他說話——也說話。但我們對我們庫存的整體品質感到滿意，而且庫存的成長實際上是由一些因素設計的。

Yes, we continue to expect to see inventory productivity here at The Home Depot, but customer service begins with in-stock. So we're really focus mostly on our in-stock. We have implemented tiered replenishment strategies that really provide focused investments to drive sales and in-stock where it matters the most, and the results we're seeing from that are really very good. We've actually reduced the number of out of stocks per store by 24% in our top-selling SKUs and [Ann Swoth's] bringing that to life with the new in-store processes. We feel great about our shelf availability there. On top of that, we've improved our direct fulfillment center in-stocks and service levels to the customers and setting new records in terms of in-stock there. So pleased with our in-stock levels and the investments we've made there.

是的，我們繼續期望看到家得寶的庫存生產率，但客戶服務始於庫存。因此，我們真正關注的是我們的庫存。我們實施了分層補貨策略，真正提供有針對性的投資來推動最重要的銷售和庫存，而我們看到的結果確實非常好。實際上，我們已經將每家商店最暢銷 SKU 的缺貨數量減少了 24%，並且 [Ann Swoth] 通過新的店內流程將這一目標變成了現實。我們對那裡的貨架供應感到非常滿意。除此之外，我們還提高了直接履行中心的庫存和為客戶提供的服務水平，並在那裡的庫存方面創下了新的紀錄。我們對我們的庫存水準和在那裡進行的投資非常滿意。

The other part of that is we've pulled forward some merchandising resets and, obviously, we've invested in that as well. And then to your point, we did pull some planned purchases forward to get ahead of any potential tariffs.

另一部分是，我們事先進行了一些商品重置，顯然，我們也對此進行了投資。然後回到您的主題，我們確實提前了一些計劃採購，以應對任何潛在的關稅。

And next, we move to Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們請摩根士丹利的西緬‧古特曼 (Simeon Gutman)。

If we add back some of the hurricane impacts that you called out, you get to somewhere in the 5% to 6% range, and I'm keeping inflation in there for now. I just want to know is that number consistent with markets that have not been affected by any weather that year-over-year there is no benefit or tailwind -- or I'm sorry, headwind? And then anything changing with consumers' opening price points, opting for something lower ticket, anything on the consumer side that shows any cracks?

如果我們把您提到的颶風影響加進去，通膨率將達到 5% 到 6% 左右，我暫時將通膨率維持在這個水平。我只是想知道，這個數字是否與未受到任何天氣影響的市場一致，即同比沒有任何好處或順風 - 或者對不起，逆風？那麼，消費者的起始價位有什麼變化嗎？

Well, we always look at the spread of performance by our 19 U.S. regions. And if you throw out the high and the low because those are hurricane related, one was negative and one was double-digit positive, if you threw out the high and the low, the spread was the narrowest it's been in a long time, it was 6.8%.

嗯，我們總是關注美國 19 個地區的表現分佈。如果你去掉最高值和最低值（因為它們與颶風有關），一個是負值，一個是兩位數的正值，如果你去掉最高值和最低值，那麼差價是長期以來的最小值，為 6.8%。

And on the product purchase, we continue to see both Pro and consumers trading up with all the innovation, the great product and brands we're offering in the stores. So that was extremely healthy in that progression of comp as you go up price points. In fact, if you look at our increase in ticket of the 3.5%, the vast majority of that is driven by mix and innovation.

在產品購買方面，我們繼續看到專業人士和消費者都在透過我們在商店中提供的所有創新、優質產品和品牌進行交易。因此，隨著價格點的上升，這種競爭態勢非常健康。事實上，如果你看看我們 3.5% 的票價成長，你會發現其中絕大部分是由組合和創新推動的。

Right, okay. My follow-up, just 2 quick parts. The inventory, I guess, you had extra inventory, can you tell us what categories you're investing deeper in? And then, just a point of clarification, this may have been mentioned in the prepared remarks, the Q4 EBIT looks a little bit below the Street. Is that freight costs continuing? Or is there some shift of expenses that go from third quarter into fourth?

好的，好的。我的後續內容，只有兩個簡短的部分。庫存，我猜你有多餘的庫存，你能告訴我們你在哪些類別上進行了更深入的投資嗎？然後，需要澄清一點，這可能已經在準備好的評論中提到過，第四季度的息稅前利潤看起來略低於華爾街的預期。運費成本還會繼續嗎？或者一些支出是否會從第三季轉移到第四季？

Well, should I answer that first? Based on the guidance that we've given you, the expense growth factor in Q4 should be lower than what we reported in Q3, and the gross margin expansion should be higher. That's a bit because of the 53rd week. So maybe there is some issue with the 53-week modeling, I don't know, but we can certainly offline help you with your models.

好吧，我應該先回答這個問題嗎？根據我們給您的指導，第四季的費用成長因素應該低於我們在第三季報告的水平，而毛利率的擴張應該會更高。那有點是因為第53週。所以也許 53 週建模存在一些問題，我不知道，但我們當然可以離線幫助您處理您的模型。

Okay. And the inventory?

好的。還有庫存嗎？

As far as inventory categories, we're not going to get specific about where we invested for competitive reasons.

就庫存類別而言，出於競爭原因，我們不會具體說明我們的投資領域。

And Matt McClintock with Barclays will have our next question.

巴克萊銀行的馬特·麥克林托克將回答我們的下一個問題。

I'd actually like to ask two quick questions. The first one is on car and van delivery, increased utilization for both Pro and DIY. Are you seeing outsized gains in either Pro or DIY relative to the other as you roll this out and build awareness?

我實際上想問兩個簡單的問題。第一個是關於汽車和貨車運輸，增加了專業人士和 DIY 的使用率。當您推出此功能並建立知名度時，您是否看到 Pro 或 DIY 相對於另一個具有更大的收益？

Car and van, we're pleased with the rollout there. As Craig mentioned, we're up to 41% of the population with car and van available, so very pleased with that rollout. The car -- as the trucks get bigger, the Pros get more engaged. So if you think about it, our big flatbed deliveries, that's very Pro-focused. As you work your way down to car, that's more and more consumer-focused. We're pleased to have that option out there for all of our customers, though. It's an important part of the portfolio of delivery options, and we think those options are important across the range to meet our customers' needs in any given occasion.

汽車和貨車，我們對那裡的推出感到滿意。正如 Craig 所提到的，我們有多達 41% 的人口擁有汽車和貨車，因此對這項舉措感到非常滿意。汽車－隨著卡車越來越大，專業人士的參與度也越來越高。所以如果你想想的話，我們的大型平板運輸是非常注重專業人士的。當你轉向汽車時，它越來越以消費者為中心。不過，我們很高興為所有客戶提供這個選擇。它是交付選項組合的重要組成部分，我們認為這些選項對於滿足客戶在任何特定場合的需求非常重要。

That's helpful. And then as a follow-up, just on home decor, I've seen the catalog this year. Is there any -- are you leaning into that category in any way different than what you did last year? Is there any build there? Or is it more of the same?

這很有幫助。然後作為後續，僅​​就家居裝飾而言，我已經看過今年的目錄。有沒有—與去年相比，您是否以任何不同方式傾向於該類別？那兒有建築物嗎？或者說它們大體上是一樣的？

It -- as we outlined in our investor conference at the end of last year, we said we were going to lean in to home decor, and we've been doing that with the catalog and online. This is an online and direct play for us, and we're seeing nice results, the customers engaging with The Home Depot in home-related decor categories, and we'll continue that through the next year, certainly.

正如我們在去年年底的投資者會議上所概述的那樣，我們表示我們將傾向於家居裝飾，並且我們一直透過目錄和線上方式來實現這一點。對我們來說，這是一種線上和直接的經營方式，我們看到了良好的業績，客戶在與家庭相關的裝飾類別中與家得寶進行了互動，當然，我們明年還會繼續這種經營方式。

Can I just, on the back end of that, is there anything specific to the holiday that you think about with that category relative to the rest of the year?

在此基礎上，我能不能想一想，相對於一年中其他時間而言，您對這個節日類別有什麼特別的看法？

No. I mean, we do our holiday decor set in the stores. Obviously, that continues to be an incredibly strong business. In fact, it's the success in that business that gave us confidence that we could move a little more decor-oriented, not product we'd want to bring into the store, but perfectly appropriate to engage the customer online.

不。我的意思是，我們在商店裡製作節日裝飾套裝。顯然，這仍然是一項非常強勁的業務。事實上，這項業務的成功給了我們信心，我們可以採取更注重裝飾的舉措，而不是我們想要帶進商店的產品，而是完全適合在線吸引客戶。

And we will move on to Steve Forbes with Guggenheim Securities.

我們接下來將討論古根漢證券公司的史蒂夫福布斯。

I wanted to start with the expense growth factor, if you can. Can you help us break down the components in the third quarter? I think accounting, strategic investments, business as usual. And then, as part of that, maybe just update us with your thoughts on the appropriate business as usual run rate, given the year-to-date performance. Is it still that 90%, that 4.5% comp and 75 at 6, looks like you're doing a little better than that year-to-date.

如果可以的話，我想從費用成長因素開始。您能幫我們分解一下第三季的組成嗎？我認為會計、戰略投資一切照常。然後，作為其中的一部分，也許您只是根據今年迄今為止的表現，向我們更新您對適當的正常業務運作率的想法。還是那 90% 嗎，4.5% 的比較和 75 的 6 點，看起來你今年迄今為止的表現比那時要好一點。

Well, I think, what I'll do for you is break down the components for the full year because I've given you the dollars for the quarter and you can do the math. We're guiding an expense growth forecast of 131% for the full year. The breakdown of that is BAU is 42%, invest is 51% and the change in accounting is 38%. And then in terms of the longer term view of our guidance, nothing has materially changed.

好吧，我想，我要為你做的是分解全年的各個組成部分，因為我已經給了你本季度的金額，你可以計算一下。我們預計全年費用成長將達到 131%。其中，BAU 佔 42%，投資佔 51%，會計變更佔 38%。從我們指導的長期觀點來看，一切並沒有實質的改變。

And then just a quick follow-up. Given the build-out plans within the supply chain, maybe just update us what your views around hiring and retaining employees, given the competitive workforce dynamic and, obviously, your initiatives on that front? Are you having trouble, or are you still finding the availability of employees to meet that upcoming need, the future need?

然後只是快速的跟進。考慮到供應鏈內的建設計劃，能否請您向我們介紹一下您對招募和留住員工的看法，考慮到競爭激烈的勞動力市場，以及您在這方面的舉措？您是否遇到了困難，或者您仍在尋找可用的員工來滿足即將到來的需求和未來的需求？

Yes, we were able to hire over 80,000 associates for our spring selling season this year. Candidly, we had a little concern as to whether or not it would be more challenging, but we really didn't find that to be the case. And Mark, I don't think you've seen anything different right now on supply chain.

是的，今年春季銷售季，我們能夠僱用超過 80,000 名員工。坦白說，我們有點擔心這是否會更具挑戰性，但事實並非如此。馬克，我認為你現在沒有看到供應鏈有任何不同。

No. It's been pretty much the same there. We've had no real issues there.

不。那裡的情況也差不多。我們在那裡沒有遇到什麼真正的問題。

And we will move on to Seth Sigman with Crédit Suisse.

我們接下來將討論瑞士信貸的 Seth Sigman。

A couple of follow up questions. Just to go back to housing, as you mentioned, the consumer is, obviously, very healthy right now. On the housing front, there's a lot of talk about just the lack of urgency as it relates to turnover, not actual demand, but there is a lack of urgency. And I realize turnover on its own is a small part of the business. But I'm curious from a behavioral perspective like are you seeing any signs that the consumer is maybe taking more of a wait-and-see approach as it relates to bigger projects, similar to how they're approaching purchasing a home?

幾個後續問題。回到住房問題，正如您所說，目前的消費者狀況顯然非常健康。在住房方面，許多人談論的只是與營業額而非實際需求有關的缺乏緊迫性，但確實缺乏緊迫性。我意識到營業額本身只是業務的一小部分。但從行為角度來看，我很好奇，您是否看到任何跡象表明消費者在處理更大的項目時可能採取更多的觀望態度，類似於他們購買房屋的態度？

We're not seeing that. And Ted called out the strength in our big-ticket categories, which grew more than 9% in the quarter. One hypothesis is that with rising interest rates, consumers are incented to stay in their home and they have wealth in their home and their home is aging, and so they're spending money on their home. The other thing I would like to say about the consumer because we've done a lot of work in this regard and just thought we'd share it because there was some interest about what does the impact of tax reform really mean on consumers' wallets? And I think we all know that tax reform is really good for consumers. It's projected that $1.1 trillion will flow to consumer tax filers over the next 10 years. The way that's playing out in 2018 is about 43% of that benefit is flowing into paychecks today. The remaining 57% of the benefit will be realized when filers actually file their tax return next year. The -- they'll claim credits and that's how they get their benefit. The only way they could receive that benefit today is if they have adjusted their withholding. So we looked at 300,000 Home Depot associates to see whether or not they had adjusted their withholding, and only 3,000 of those associates had adjusted their withholding. So we believe that many consumers are going to have a nice tax surprise next year. Now, if you are a higher earner in a high state and local tax state like California or New York or Connecticut, well, that won't be the case. But high earners are actually those with $500,000 or more. Those folks, well, they're going to have a bit of a tax bill. And if they haven't prepared for it, it's going to be a negative surprise. But we went to our consumer insights team and said, "Hey, what's the average income of our customers?" 97% of our customers' average income is less than $250,000. So we think the health of the consumer continues into 2019.

我們沒有看到這一點。泰德強調了我們的高價位產品類別的強勁表現，該類別在本季度增長了 9% 以上。一個假設是，隨著利率上升，消費者有動力留在自己的家中，他們擁有財富，而且他們的房屋正在老化，所以他們會在房屋上花錢。我想說的另一件事是關於消費者，因為我們在這方面做了很多工作，只是想分享一下，因為有人對稅改對消費者錢包的影響到底意味著什麼感興趣？我想我們都知道稅制改革對消費者確實有利。預計未來 10 年將有 1.1 兆美元流入消費者報稅者。2018 年的情況是，大約 43% 的福利已經轉入到今天的薪資中。剩餘 57% 的收益將在納稅人明年實際提交納稅申報表時實現。他們會索取積分，這就是他們獲取利益的方式。他們今天能夠獲得這項福利的唯一方法就是調整預扣稅。因此，我們調查了 30 萬名家得寶員工，看看他們是否調整了預扣稅，結果只有 3,000 名員工調整了預扣稅。因此我們相信，許多消費者明年將會享受到稅收方面的驚喜。現在，如果你是加州、紐約州或康乃狄克州等州稅和地方稅較高的州的高收入者，那麼情況就不是這樣了。但高收入者其實是那些收入50萬美元或以上的人。這些人將會面臨一些稅費。如果他們沒有做好準備，這將是一個負面意外。但是我們諮詢了消費者洞察團隊，問道：“嘿，我們客戶的平均收入是多少？” 97% 的客戶平均收入低於 25 萬美元。因此我們認為消費者健康的勢頭將持續到 2019 年。

And we will move on to Scot Ciccarelli with RBC.

我們接下來將與 RBC 一起討論 Scot Ciccarelli。

So are there any markets or even product categories where you're starting to see some trade down activity? And related to that, how do you think that would play out in a rising price environment because of tariffs and maybe you grant some of the price increase requests that you're getting from your vendors?

那麼，在哪些市場，甚至哪些產品類別中，你開始看到一些降價活動呢？與此相關的是，您認為在關稅導致的價格上漲環境下，情況會如何發展？

So I'll start with a comment and turn it to Ted. Even in the downturn of 2008 which was obviously the most difficult since the Depression, customers were willing to spend for new innovative product.

因此，我首先要發表評論，然後轉給 Ted。即使在 2008 年經濟衰退（顯然是大蕭條以來最困難的一次衰退）中，消費者仍然願意花錢購買新的創新產品。

Yes. And as I said, Scot, we haven't seen it yet. It's something I'm looking at very closely. We're looking at unit productivity by opening price point, good, better, best, premium, making sure we're priced right at the opening price point level and making sure inventory levels are ready to go to see if we're going to -- to see that dynamic that you just referenced, and we have not seen it. Now whether that comes, we'll be ready for it. But to date, as Craig said, people are trading up for the new innovative product.

是的。正如我所說，斯科特，我們還沒有看到它。這是我正在密切關注的事情。我們正在透過開盤價點、好、更好、最好、優質來查看單位生產率，確保我們的定價正好在開盤價點水平，並確保庫存水平準備就緒，以查看我們是否會 - 看看您剛才提到的動態，但我們還沒有看到它。無論是否會發生，我們都將做好準備。但到目前為止，正如克雷格所說，人們正在升級產品以追求新的創新產品。

I mean, a classic example of that is you take a category like vinyl flooring. Vinyl flooring was almost on its death bed, and then innovation came along and you now have vinyl plank flooring that is flying out the stores at a premium price. It's a great value to the customer, it's easy to use, it's simple for the Pro to install and that's a classic example of why innovation drives sales.

我的意思是，一個典型的例子就是像乙烯基地板這樣的類別。乙烯基地板幾乎已經走到了盡頭，但後來創新出現了，現在乙烯基板地板正在以高價在商店裡熱銷。它對客戶來說很有價值，使用起來很簡單，專業人士安裝起來也很簡單，這就是創新推動銷售的典型例子。

And to be clear on the market front, like Carol, you already mentioned, the LA market, for example, any markets where you're starting to see trade down activity, maybe particularly if you could focus on any kind of overheated housing markets or what would you view as where affordability isn't great?

並且要明確市場方面的情況，就像卡羅爾您已經提到的那樣，例如洛杉磯市場，您開始看到任何交易減少活動的市場，也許特別是如果您可以關注任何類型的過熱的房地產市場，或者您認為哪些地方的負擔能力不太好？

We haven't seen anything like that at all.

我們根本沒有見過這樣的事情。

Haven't seen it.

沒看過。

And we move on to Elizabeth Suzuki with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我們接下來討論美銀美林的伊莉莎白‧鈴木 (Elizabeth Suzuki)。

Can you give any additional detail on the performance in Canada on a constant currency basis? I think you guys mentioned that the comps were positive. Just sue curious how strong it was there?

您能否提供有關加拿大以固定匯率計算的表現的更多細節？我認為你們提到過，業績表現是正面的。只是好奇那裡的強度有多高？

Canada posted positive comps in local currency. Clearly, there are pressures in Canada from a housing standpoint. The government has made a conscious decision to slow down housing in Canada, and you see that in the numbers. But they delivered a great performance. We're seeing terrific online growth in Canada as the Canadian customer embraces e-commerce as well.

加拿大以當地貨幣計算的銷售額年增了不少。顯然，從住房角度來看，加拿大存在壓力。政府已經做出了明智的決定，減緩加拿大的住房建設，從數字上就可以看出這一點。但他們的表現非常出色。隨著加拿大消費者越來越接受電子商務，我們看到加拿大的線上業務出現了驚人的成長。

Great. And was there any impact in the quarter from competitive pricing from other large players as they rationalize some inventory this quarter?

偉大的。由於其他大型企業本季對部分庫存進行了合理化調整，他們的競爭性定價是否對本季產生了影響？

We've certainly seen much more promotional activity as folks have made decisions to close stores and liquidate inventory.

由於人們決定關閉商店並清理庫存，我們確實看到了更多的促銷活動。

Okay. You wouldn't -- would you say that had a material impact on your sales this quarter or was it not enough to call out?

好的。您不會—您會說這對您本季的銷售產生了重大影響嗎？

We don't have a clue how to measure that.

我們還不知道該如何衡量這一點。

We don't know how to measure that.

我們不知道如何衡量這一點。

Next, we move to Jonathan Matuszewski with Jefferies.

接下來我們請來 Jefferies 的 Jonathan Matuszewski。

Just to start off, last quarter, you mentioned some cross-functional teams focused on improving the experience online for customers. So maybe just expand on that. What do you see as your competitive advantage today online relative to peers? And with personalization a big push, have you seen a benefit in terms of average order values or transactions when the site's customized based on prior purchases?

首先，上個季度，您提到一些跨職能團隊致力於改善客戶的線上體驗。因此也許可以進一步擴展這一點。與同業相比，您認為您目前在網路上的競爭優勢是什麼？隨著個人化的大力推廣，當網站根據先前的購買情況進行客製化時，您是否看到平均訂單價值或交易量的好處？

Yes. Overall, absolutely, we're very pleased with the results from our initiatives as part of our investment strategy that we laid out. Supply chain's, obviously, a very big component of that, but leaning into our online investments, also a large piece of that. And we've started to do a lot of work with our category refreshes. So think of this as a virtual reset, online, a lot of work on our search efficacy. A lot of work with the supply chain team as they've gotten sharper on delivery and our delivery windows. We call it dynamic ETA. So when you're checking out, we would put before a broad brush, 7 to 10 days for delivery. Now by ZIP Code, we can put the day that you'll be getting that product. All of these things have led to much better traffic. We had one of our strongest traffic quarters that we've seen in a number of years. Our visits were -- our absolute increase in visits was our single largest growth in a quarter in visits, and then it all resulted in the comp sales of 28%, and that's also due to increased conversion. So we're getting people to engage into the site, the experience is getting to the right product. We're getting to the right close. All of this, while more and more of the traffic moves to our mobile app in mobile devices and where we're seeing double-digit increases in conversion rates and modest increase in average ticket. So very pleased with all the initiatives.

是的。整體而言，我們對所製定的投資策略所取得的成果感到非常滿意。顯然，供應鏈是其中非常重要的組成部分，但依靠我們的線上投資，也是其中很大一部分。我們已經開始對產品類別進行大量更新工作。因此，可以將其視為線上虛擬重置，對我們的搜尋效率進行大量工作。我們與供應鏈團隊進行了大量合作，使他們對交付和交付窗口的了解更加敏銳。我們稱之為動態ETA。因此，當您結帳時，我們會大致說明一下，送貨需要 7 到 10 天。現在，透過郵遞區號，我們可以找出您將收到該產品的日期。所有這些都使交通狀況大大改善。我們經歷了多年來客流量最強勁的一個季度。我們的訪問量——訪問量的絕對增長是我們一個季度內訪問量最大的增長，這一切都導致了 28% 的銷售額增長，這也是由於轉換率的提高。因此，我們讓人們參與網站中，獲得獲得正確產品的體驗。我們即將接近尾聲。同時，越來越多的流量轉移到我們行動裝置上的行動應用程序，我們看到轉換率呈現兩位數成長，平均票價也略有上漲。我對所有舉措都非常滿意。

And clearly, the customer is engaging, obviously, in the digital world. But 48% of the orders in the quarter were picked up in store at the customer's choice. So this is truly an interconnected experience going forward, leveraging all the capabilities and assets of The Home Depot in both the digital and physical world.

顯然，客戶正在參與數位世界。但本季 48% 的訂單都是由顧客自行選擇在店內取貨的。因此，這確實是一種未來互聯的體驗，充分利用家得寶在數位世界和現實世界的所有能力和資產。

Great. That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up. Can you give an update on the store labor pilot? I believe you pointed to a sales list in 2Q from the pilot, maybe better conversion and whatnot. So maybe just discuss any potential uplift in sales from 3Q from the labor pilot. And what's the trajectory for rolling that out ahead?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後只是快速的跟進。能介紹一下商店勞工試辦的最新進展嗎？我相信您指出了試點的第二季銷售清單，也許轉換率更高等等。因此，也許只是討論一下勞動力試點從第三季開始銷售額可能帶來的任何提升。未來實施的軌跡是怎麼樣的？

It's easier for us to quantify the productivity that we enjoyed off of the new labor model, which Ann-Marie has put into our stores. We saw 46 basis points of payroll leverage in the third quarter and a large part because of that new labor model.

我們可以更輕鬆地量化安瑪莉在我們商店引入的新勞動模式所帶來的生產力。我們看到第三季的工資槓桿率上升了46個基點，這很大程度上是由於新的勞動力模式。

And we've fully rolled out -- yes, we have fully rolled out across the company. So we will get the full benefit in 2019.

我們已經全面展開——是的，我們已經在整個公司全面展開。因此我們將在 2019 年獲得全部利益。

Rochelle, we have time for one more question.

羅謝爾，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our final question today will come from Scott Mushkin with Wolfe research.

今天的最後一個問題來自 Wolfe 研究公司的 Scott Mushkin。

So I just wanted to ask you, Carol, if you look at the business, obviously, we had a very sharp housing turndown in 2008. But if we look at the business, let's just assume we get a downturn because that's what almost every investor seems to think. How do you think the business performs through an average downturn. Have you guys looked at that? And then also, would you guys ever consider using your balance sheet more aggressively as we got into a situation like that? So that's my first question.

所以我只想問你，卡羅爾，如果你看一下這個行業，顯然，2008 年我們的房屋市場出現了非常急劇的下滑。但如果我們看一下業務，我們就假設我們陷入了衰退，因為幾乎每個投資者似乎都是這麼認為的。您認為在經濟低迷時期企業的表現會如何？你們看過了嗎？而且，當我們陷入這種情況時，你們是否會考慮更積極地使用資產負債表？這是我的第一個問題。

So what we've done is looked through the last recession, which was just a crazy recession, and went back to 2000 time frame, where the country was in a fairly mild recession and our comps at that point were flat. So we modeled flat comps to say that's the reasonable downturn. I don't know if it's reasonable, but I think it's reasonable, and staying true to our investment plan. Because of the financial strength of the company, we can stay true to our investment plan if we take our operating margin down to a little over 12%.

因此，我們所做的就是回顧上一次經濟衰退，那隻是一次瘋狂的經濟衰退，並回顧 2000 年的時間範圍，當時國家正處於相當溫和的經濟衰退中，而我們當時的同店銷售額持平。因此，我們建立了平坦的模型來表明這是合理的下滑。我不知道這是否合理，但我認為這是合理的，並且符合我們的投資計劃。由於公司的財務實力，如果我們將營業利潤率降至略高於 12％，我們就可以堅持我們的投資計劃。

I am sorry, could you say that. You just kind of cut out a little bit.

抱歉，您可以這麼說嗎？您只要剪掉一點點就可以了。

I'm sorry. We take our operating margin down to a little over 12%, in a flat comp environment, staying true to the investments. And we believe scale is a competitive advantage. We use it every day. As Ted mentioned, we got lots of people, coming knocking on our doors asking for things and we're working through that with the power of The Home Depot.

對不起。在平穩的競爭環境下，我們將營業利潤率降至略高於 12%，同時保持投資不變。我們相信規模就是競爭優勢。我們每天都使用它。正如泰德所提到的那樣，很多人來敲門詢問我們的東西，我們正在藉助家得寶的力量來解決這個問題。

And then as far as using the balance sheet a little bit more aggressively, if we got into that downturn situation?

那麼，如果我們陷入經濟低迷的局面，我們會更積極地使用資產負債表嗎？

That's our scale. Yes, that's our scale. We have the opportunity to do that, yes.

這就是我們的規模。是的，這就是我們的規模。是的，我們有機會做到這一點。

Well, thank you for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you on our fourth quarter earnings call in February.

好吧，感謝您今天加入我們。我們期待在二月的第四季財報電話會議上與您交談。

That will conclude today's call. We thank you for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。