家得寶 (HD) 2010 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Home Depot fourth-quarter 2010 earnings conference call.

Today's call is being recorded.

(Operator Instructions)

Beginning today's discussion is Ms.

Diane Dayhoff, Vice President of Investor Relations.

Please go ahead.

Thank you, Cindy, and good morning to everyone.

Joining us on our call today are Frank Blake, Chairman and CEO of The Home Depot; Craig Menear, Executive Vice President, Merchandising; and Carol Tome, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Corporate Services.

Following our prepared remarks the call will be open for analysts' questions.

Questions will be limited to analysts and investors.

And as a reminder we would appreciate it if the participants would limit themselves to one question with one follow-up, please.

This conference call is being broadcast real-time on the Internet at earnings.HomeDepot.com.

The replay will also be available on our site.

If we are unable to get to your question during the call, please call our Investor Relations Department at 770-384-2387.

Now before I turn the call over to Frank, let me remind you that today's press release and the presentations made by our executives include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties.

These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Today's presentations also include certain non-GAAP measurements.

Reconciliation of these measurements is provided in the financial statements included with our earnings release.

Now let me turn the call over to Frank Blake.

Thank you, Diane, and good morning, everyone.

Sales for the fourth quarter were $15.1 billion, up 3.8% from last year.

Diluted earnings per share were $0.36.

As Carol will detail, fourth-quarter comp sales were positive 3.9% for the Company and 4.8% for the US.

We saw strength across the US, as 49 of 50 states positively comped.

The states that have been the most impacted by the housing crisis, specifically Florida and California, performed in line with the Company's overall performance in the US.

So while they are not leading us out of the downturn, they are at least no longer an anchor.

The markets with underperformance to the Company average in the fourth quarter tended to be those with significant weather impacts during the quarter and particularly January, such as in the Northeast.

Last quarter we mentioned that we were seeing a tighter range of performance across our top markets.

That continued to be the case in the fourth quarter.

So the overall picture is one of a stabilizing business.

This is a source of some confidence for 2011, because it is occurring despite the continued weakness of the housing markets.

Private fixed residential investment as a percent of GDP remained near its 60-year low at 2.25%.

We still look at this measure to help understand the pressures in the housing market; and the fact that our performance has disconnected from it suggests that our business is stabilizing and can improve even as the housing market remains under stress.

Operationally we continue to make progress with our customer service initiatives.

We have completed the rollout of our First Phone, and Marvin Ellison and his team ended the year with 51% of store payroll allocated to customer-facing activities.

Since we started measuring our labor allocation, this is the first time we have crossed the threshold of having more hours dedicated to customer-facing activity than tasking activity.

We have a target of a 60-40 ratio, and we believe we will achieve that by 2013.

As we drive this reallocation we are seeing ongoing improvement in our Net Promoter Score, which is up 450 basis points year-over-year and is now over 73%.

We achieved another significant milestone in the fourth quarter.

We opened our 19th Rapid Deployment Center.

This concludes our RDC buildout at least for the next several years.

Restructuring the supply chain of a business as large as Home Depot in just three years is an enormous undertaking that touched almost every part of the Company and required the work and dedication of the entire team.

But Mark Holifield and his Supply Chain team merit particular recognition.

We now have ahead of us continued opportunities to improve the RDCs themselves as well as the rest of the supply chain, particularly our stocking facilities.

For the quarter, as Craig will detail, we had a very successful holiday selling.

We saw continued growth in transactions, and we also saw an uptick in our average ticket, with strong performance in kitchens and appliances.

Over the course of 2010 we made significant improvements in our merchandising systems, predominantly focused on our in-stock product and processes.

For 2011 that will continue, but we will also intensify our focus on our special-order product and processes.

This has been an area of historic underperformance for the Company.

We know we have to make it easier for our customers to buy non-stocked items.

Matt Carey and his IT team, along with our dotcom, merchandising, and operational teams, will be making this a priority.

We will be digitizing our catalogs, upgrading our special-order systems within our stores, restructuring our SKUs to accommodate shopping for coordinated items, and continuing to improve the connectivity between our digital presence and our bricks-and-mortar presence.

On the international side of our business, Mexico continues to perform well with positive comps for the 29th quarter in a row.

Canada had negative comps for the quarter, as they lapped last year's dramatic increase in sales driven by the expiration of the home renovation tax credit.

In 2011 our US businesses will be lapping the expiration of a series of 2010 tax incentives, the new homeowner tax credit, the Cash for Clunkers appliance credit, and the $1,500 energy tax credit.

But we believe the growth in GDP and improving consumer sentiment will continue to lift our presence in 2011.

For the year we are anticipating approximately 2.5% sales growth and 9.5% growth in earnings per share.

We have some difficult comparisons in the first quarter, but we expect each quarter to show positive growth, with sales momentum gaining in the back half.

We continue to focus on disciplined capital allocation and increasing shareholder return, as we had laid out for you in the past.

Our intent is to increase our dividend every year.

So today the Board of Directors and I are pleased to announce that we are increasing the quarterly dividend 6% to $0.25.

We will continue to use excess cash to repurchase our shares.

The hard work and dedication of our associates will make the difference in 2011 as they did in 2010.

We are very proud that 93% of our stores qualified for Success Sharing for the back half of 2010.

Now let me turn the call over to Craig.

Thanks, Frank, and good morning, everyone.

Looking at our fourth-quarter results, we are pleased that the focus areas we shared with you on our last earnings call met or exceeded our expectations during the quarter.

We saw excellent results from our gift centers, seasonal and Black Friday offerings, and new product launches.

The fourth quarter represented our fifth quarter in a row of positive comp growth.

We saw positive comps in nine departments during the quarter and we were pleased with the comp improvement we saw in the US from the third to the fourth quarter.

The departments that outperformed the Company's average comp were kitchens, outdoor garden, indoor garden, electrical, and tools.

As I mentioned going into the fourth quarter we leaned into the holiday season and increased our buys.

The outstanding values in our gift centers as well as our incredible Black Friday lineup led to a very strong November.

In fact, the tremendous response by our customers to our appliance values led to double-digit positive comps for appliances in the month of November.

The expiration of a tax credit in the US for the purchase of energy-efficient windows, doors, skylights drove increased sales in millwork and home services during the first two months of the quarter as customers made purchases ahead of December's 31st deadline.

We also saw continued strength in our gift centers and our decorative holiday categories throughout the month of December.

While January was impacted by heavy snow and ice we were well positioned to respond in weather-related categories.

Our teams executed extremely well, leveraging our supply chain capabilities to position product for our customers.

As a result we saw double-digit positive comps in power snow removal equipment, chemicals, and snow tool categories.

As we shared with you previously, our focus over the past few years has been to restore the competitive position of Home Depot and to drive everyday great values for our customers.

As a result of this effort, we have seen improved customer transactions for the past five quarters and our overall Company comp transactions were up 1.3% in the fourth quarter.

Total Company average ticket was up 2.6% or $1.30 to $51.31 for the quarter.

Transactions for tickets under $50, roughly 20% of our business in the US, were up 1.8% year-over-year.

Transactions for tickets of $900 and above, also approximately 20% of US sales, were up 9.6% in the fourth quarter, certainly contributing to our overall Company ticket performance.

Drivers of this big ticket increase included the sales of appliances, millwork, windows, and HVAC.

While customers responded to the great values we offered in the quarter and took advantage of tax credits, we believe they still remain cautious on making bit-ticket investments in their homes.

During the fourth quarter we saw some commodity price inflation.

In the last 45 days we have seen a number of requests from vendors for price increases as a result of elevated raw material costs.

We review each of these requests on an individual basis, and our portfolio strategy drives our go-to-market actions as it has done for the past several years.

The ongoing development of our assortment and value offerings for our customers through the implementation of our merchandising transformation continues to pay off through market share growth.

As of December, according to the NAICS 4441 U.S.

Census data, we gained 19 basis points of market share on a rolling 12-month basis.

Additionally, based on an independent third-party tracking of consumer activity, we gained unit share in seven out of 13 departments during the fourth quarter including building materials, tools and hardware, plumbing, electrical, indoor garden, outdoor garden, and appliances.

As we look to 2011 we are well positioned to drive both sales and transactions.

We kicked off the new year with great values on several interior projects including bath remodels and paint.

We are currently offering round two of our outstanding event called Vanity Insanity, and we are seeing terrific project selling from our associates as well as great overall results from the event.

In our paint category, we're excited about the fact that a third-party leading consumer publication recently ranked our Behr Premium Plus Ultra paint as its best buy across all dominant [chains] for the second year in a row.

Our Behr Premium Plus and Glidden brands were also ranked highly across all chains, reinforcing the fact that we have an incredibly strong offering for our customers in the DIY paint space.

We also continue to focus on innovation and services for our professional customers.

At the most recent builder show in January, Behr announced the introduction of KILZ PRO-X, a product line designed with the professional paint contractor in mind to be available exclusively at all Home Depot stores by the end of the first quarter of 2011.

The entire KILZ PRO-X line has been formulated to optimize spray, roll, and brush application along with performance features including superior hide and coverage and touchup capabilities, allowing our professional painters to save time and money.

As we roll out KILZ PRO-X we are also implementing new POS enhancements that allow us to better serve this customer segment.

In addition we are rolling out a new line of Milwaukee Red Lithium tools powered by the leading lithium technology available.

These tools deliver 40% longer runtime at 20% more torque than products powered by current lithium technology, in addition to providing superior performance in cold weather conditions.

Finally, we have a line-up of some incredible special buys and innovative new products for our outdoor categories during the 2011 spring selling season.

We will kick off the spring season with an outstanding Spring Black Friday event.

Spring Black Friday will include some of our most popular outdoor categories such as live goods, lawn care, outdoor power, eco-friendly gardening products, patio, and grills.

In addition to our Spring Black Friday event, we will also be introducing several great products for our customers' outdoor projects such as [Armor-Guard] decking, an expansion of our green garden chemical products by both Behr and Ortho, a new lineup of tractors from John Deere, and continuing innovation in cordless garden tools building on the benefits of lithium technology.

We are excited about these new product rollouts for 2011, and we feel confident that our customers will recognize and respond to the great values being offered at The Home Depot this spring.

And with that, I would like to turn the call over to Carol.

Thank you, Craig, and hello, everyone.

We exceeded the guidance we gave you at the beginning of December due to stronger than anticipated sales growth and a couple of expense good guys.

In the fourth quarter, sales were $15.1 billion, a 3.8% increase from last year.

Comps or same-store sales were positive 3.9% for the quarter, with positive comps of 7.5% in November, positive 5.1% in December, and negative 0.7% in January.

Comps for US stores were positive 4.8% for the quarter, with positive comps of 8% in November, positive 5.8% in December, and positive 0.7% in January.

For the year our sales increased 2.8% to $68 billion.

Total Company comp sales were positive 2.9% for fiscal 2010; and comps for US stores were positive 2.5%.

Our gross margin was 34.7% for the quarter, an increase of 25 basis points from last year.

Our US business contributed 24 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter, principally because we had lower levels of clearance inventory in our stores.

Clearance inventory is down 32% from one year ago, and our inventory has never been in better shape.

For the year, we experienced 40 basis points of gross margin expansion.

Turning to operating expenses, in the fourth quarter operating expenses as a percent of sales decreased by 161 basis points to 27.8%.

Total operating expense dollars were $80 million less than last year.

Our expense leverage was primarily the result of positive same-store sales, but also reflects the following significant items.

First, depreciation expense was $18 million under last year due to a lower asset base arising from fully depreciated assets.

Second, we saw a $24 million year-over-year expense benefit due to a lower than anticipated cost of private label credit.

Third, management bonuses were $34 million less than last year.

Relative to our financial plan we had a good year, but not as good as what we experienced in 2009.

Finally, we did incur some expense associated with the announcement of six store closings in the quarter.

But that expense was the same as the expense we incurred last year for similar actions.

For fiscal 2010 operating expenses as a percent of sales was 25.7%, a decrease of 93 basis points from last year.

As detailed in our press release we have some charges associated with HD Supply and our business rationalization in 2009 and 2010.

Adjusting for those charges, we leveraged operating expenses by 75 basis points for the year.

As we have discussed we have experienced great expense control due to the introduction of new tools.

During the year we also recognized some one-time expense benefits totaling about $70 million that we do not believe will repeat in 2011.

In the fourth quarter interest and other expense was $87 million.

On an adjusted basis, interest was down $71 million from last year due primarily to the following factors.

First, we had an unexpected $44 million benefit related to favorable IRS guidance and the corresponding reversal of an interest accrual.

Second, the cost of outstanding indebtedness was lower than last year.

Third, we had some interest benefit arising from certain state tax settlements.

For the year, interest and other expense totaled $566 million.

Our income tax provision rate was 38.2% in the fourth quarter and 36.7% for the year.

Earnings per share from continuing operations for the fourth quarter were $0.36, an increase of 100% from last year.

On an adjusted basis, earnings per share from continuing operations increased 50%.

For the year, earnings per share from continuing operations were $2.01, up 29.7% from fiscal 2009.

On an adjusted basis, earnings per share from continuing operations increased 22.3% to $2.03 compared to last year's adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations of $1.66.

Now moving to our operational metrics, during the fourth quarter we opened five new stores and closed one store in China for an ending store accounts of 2,248.

At the end of the year, selling square footage was 235 million, flat to last year.

Reflecting the sales environment, total sales per square foot for the fourth quarter were $255, up 4.3% from last year.

For fiscal 2010, sales per square foot were $289, up 3.5% from fiscal 2009.

Now turning to the balance sheet, at the end of the year inventory was $10.6 billion, up $437 million from a year ago.

This reflects higher sales levels as well as a pull-forward of certain spring inventory buys.

Inventory turns were 4.13 times, up from 4.06 times last year.

In the fourth quarter, we repurchased $600 million or 17.6 million shares of outstanding stock.

We ended the year with $40.1 billion in assets including $545 million in cash.

For the year, this reflects cash generated by the business of approximately $4.4 billion, offset by $2.6 billion used for share repurchases, $1.6 billion used for dividends, and $1.1 billion of capital expenditures.

Computed on the average of beginning and ending long-term debt and equity for the trailing four quarters, return on invested capital was 12.8%, 213 basis points higher than the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009.

Now as we look to 2011, we expect another year of sales growth in line with US GDP growth expectations.

We have detailed our guidance in our press release, so let me just hit the high points.

First, let me remind you that we guide off of GAAP.

For the year, we project that our sales will increase by approximately 2.5% with low single-digit same-store sales growth.

We plan to open 10 stores in 2011 -- two in the US, one in Canada, and seven in Mexico.

We expect sales growth to be stronger in the second half than in the first half of the year, with growth rates fairly similar to what we reported in the US for fiscal 2010.

We're planning positive same-store sales growth in every quarter, but we expect the first quarter to be our lowest comping quarter given the timing of spring's arrival last year and tough year-over-year commodity price comparisons.

For fiscal 2011 we expect earnings per share from continuing operations to increase by approximately 9.5% to $2.20.

Included in our earnings per share guidance is operating margin expansion of approximately 40 basis points arising from gross margin expansion and modest expense leverage.

As I mentioned at our December investor conference, we expect some discrete cost pressures in 2011, and we had some operating expense benefit in 2010 that won't repeat.

So we anticipate operating expenses will grow at approximately 70% of our sales growth rate for the year.

Given year-over-year expense comparisons, we project that our earnings growth will be stronger in the first half of the year than in the back half of the year.

For fiscal 2011 we project cash flow from the business of roughly $5.7 billion.

This forecast assumes we refinance $1 billion of senior notes that come due in March.

We will use our cash to invest in our business and return capital to shareholders.

Our 2011 capital spending plan is $1.35 billion, reflecting $585 million for our existing US stores and supply chain; $370 million for IT; $300 million for new stores; and $95 million for our non-US visitors.

We just announced a 6% increase in our annual cash dividend to $1.00 per share and we will use cash to fund our dividend, which for the year approximates $1.6 billion.

This leaves approximately $2.5 billion of excess cash which we intend to use for share repurchases.

Depending on the timing of our repurchases we should see some earnings per share benefit arising from this activity in 2011.

Assuming we repurchase the shares ratably over the course of 2011 we expect our earnings per share growth from continuing operations to be approximately 12% for the year.

So we thank you for your participation in today's call.

And, Cindy, we are now ready for questions.

(Operator Instructions) Brian Nagel, Oppenheimer.

Hi, good morning.

Congratulations on a nice quarter.

Thank you.

I just wanted to ask the first question about weather.

In your prepared comments you addressed the weather in January.

We have heard from a lot of other retailers talking about weather, and you gave us the progression of comps through the quarter.

So I guess the question I have is, as you look at the weather in the markets, was it overall a positive or negative?

And then to what extent either way?

Well, so if you went through the monthly comps that Carol set out, for the months with strong positive comps, November and December, I wouldn't say that that was because of weather.

Unless you want to put it -- well, there wasn't weather that stopped people from being able to get to the stores.

That was really the weather issue in January, was -- I mean, for example, here in Atlanta the city was shut down for almost a week.

So I would say if you look at it from that perspective, weather was more of a negative for us.

Okay.

The second question I had, with respect to the ticket information you gave in the press release, we saw a nice uptick there; and again if my math is correct it looks like one of the strongest growth in ticket in a few years.

As you look at that, do you think that was more reflective of something in particular fourth quarter?

Or was that something that is more reflective of underlying trend in the business, as something we could carry forward as we look into 2011?

The key drivers of ticket in the quarter were obviously growth in categories like millwork, HVAC, some of the categories that actually benefited from the tax credits as well as a terrific response from our customers on our appliance offerings that we had as part of our Black Friday event and a solid performance in our kitchen business overall.

And as we built our plan for 2011 we assumed more growth would come from transactions in the first half of the year and more from ticket in the back half of the year.

Perfect.

Thank you.

Congratulations again.

Peter Benedict, Robert Baird.

Hey, guys.

Thanks.

Just following up on some of that.

Craig, you mentioned some of your plans for this spring.

Specifically interested in the outdoor power equipment category.

How do you plan that category going forward, the riding mowers?

And what are your forecasts telling you in terms of the timing of spring?

Because I think spring was real early last year.

When do you guys expect that to set in?

Yes, Peter, we did have an early spring last year, which was a very nice benefit in Q1.

I think this year, if you buy into the forecast, it is more of a normalized spring this year.

So we actually anticipate that it provides a little bit of headwind in the first quarter.

And then we are excited about our overall outdoor power equipment lineup for this year.

Excited about the value propositions that we have in riding mowers and walk-behind mowers.

We have an outstanding program in walks.

Then as I mentioned we are expanding with some new product in outdoor power as it relates to continued expansion of lithium, which did very well for us last year.

So looking forward to the spring selling season.

Terrific, thanks.

One quick follow-up.

On the international comp trend, when should we expect a turnaround, particularly in Canada?

Are you guys expecting that to be positive next year?

If so, when do you expect that swing?

Yes, Canada, so continue to have a little bit of headwind in the first quarter just as you get through all of the tax credit compares.

And then it should start to turn positive.

Okay, great.

Thanks so much.

David Schick, Stifel Nicolaus.

Hi, good morning.

Frank you said at the beginning of the call excess cash to buy back shares.

Carol, you said priorities are to return cash and invest in the business.

But just I guess more details on your thoughts if you beat guidance.

Would it -- how do you think about movements on the balance sheet, buyback, the dividend?

What are the priorities that you would use excess operating income for?

Well, hopefully we have set our guiding principles pretty clearly over time, which is first we invest in the business to support and sustain our Company; and then second we do look to excess cash for buying back shares, and we have an objective of increasing our dividends annually as we approach a payout ratio of 40%-ish.

We are kind of slowly, as you saw from the announcement this morning, we are trending down in that direction.

So it is not one big next thing?

You would continue the balance of things?

Right.

Yes.

Okay, great.

Then just any comments on what you are seeing in the rollout of the First Phone?

Well, Marvin is here and I would ask Marvin to comment on it.

I'd just say at the start that it has really been a program just extraordinarily well received by our associates, and a great job both by our Operations team and our IT team.

But Marvin?

Yes, David, it is very successful.

We had really a couple of key things we were focused on.

Number one simplifying how we look at data.

This device gives the associate real-time data on sales, gross margin, and inventory.

Also in-stock; simplifies the in-stock process, which is big for us.

But one thing that has been a pleasant surprise is checkout.

We had almost 1 million transactions in the fourth quarter on the First Phone in checking customers out at point-of-sale.

So a mobile point-of-sale checkout is a big plus because we have a huge focus this year on speed of checkout.

And the results and the feedback have been terrific.

Great partnership between Matt Carey and his team; Marc Powers, my lead of operations; and we feel like we have a lot to build on for the rest of the year.

Great.

Thanks.

Chris Horvers, JPMorgan.

Thanks and good morning.

Can you talk about your thought process on bringing the inventory in a bit earlier this year for spring?

I think you made that same decision a year ago and it was very successful.

Just curious what the drivers were this year.

Yes, we did have success with that last year.

You are correct.

So we are following on that success.

Given all the data that we looked at we said we wanted to be prepared to capture anything early that we could, given the fact that the projections right now for the later part of the quarter are not all that strong from a weather standpoint.

Who knows how that will exactly play out?

But that's the decision that we made.

I've got you.

Carol, on the gross margin, did you see any pressure in 4Q related to commodity cost pressures?

And are you baking in any for 2011?

Well, as you can appreciate in the gross margin there were lots of goes-ins and goes-outs related to product mix, and there was some inflation in there as well -- but nothing material, or else we would have called it out.

As we built our plan for 2011, it is a commodity neutral plan.

Craig mentioned in his comments that over the past 45 days we have been getting some requests for price increases, and we deal with those one request at a time.

Thank you very much.

Michael Lasser, Barclays Capital.

Good morning, thanks a lot for taking my question.

There has been a lot of noise in the housing market over the last year.

As you look into the category detail of your recent performance, is there anything to suggest that the strong fourth-quarter results weren't just due to the upturn in housing turnover that occurred early in 2010?

Especially in light of the historical six- to nine-month lag between that symmetric and home-improvement demand.

Michael, we can't see it.

I mean, it's an interesting question because you might think, gee, you saw -- just as you said.

You saw this spike in the spring, and was that coming through more in the fourth quarter?

But if you look at where the strength was, I think you would say it was a combination of areas where we had great offerings and took some share, and other areas where you had improvement through the tax credit items that we called out, and then a very, very strong seasonal holiday season selling that we really don't think was related to an uptick in the housing market as a whole.

Yes, to put it in perspective, the benefit we enjoyed from the sale of energy-related products was about 50 basis points impact to our comp in the quarter.

That's helpful.

Follow-up question.

Consumers have shown a clear desire to want to reengage in home improvement over the last few quarters.

So the next big headwind the business might face is pressure on discretionary budgets from rising food and gas prices.

Does that influence how you think about the portfolio price strategy as we move through this spring and through the rest of this year?

Yes, I mean certainly we know that if you look over the past couple years it's been cycles where the customer has been under serious pressure with discretionary spend.

That is why we are incredibly focused on trying to drive great values or customers every day and focusing on making sure that we are putting the offerings out there that continues to drive our positive comp transactions and really helps drive customers to our stores.

So it is a key focus for us as we move forward.

Okay.

Thanks a lot and best of luck with the spring.

Colin McGranahan, Bernstein.

Good morning.

Thank you.

First question just back on gross margin.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that you will probably get a few more requests from vendors for price increases over the next 45 and probably 400 days.

How do you think about passing that through?

In what categories do you think you have some pricing power?

In which categories might you need to be a little bit more careful?

And historically what have you seen and how do you think this might be similar or different?

Colin, I would agree there has certainly been pressure in the last 45 days.

I don't think that is going to subside.

But we deal with those on an individual one-off basis.

Our first and foremost approach is to try to figure out how to work with our suppliers to either leverage our supply chain, leverage how we do business together, to try to mitigate the pressure that they are seeing so that we can continue to hold the line the best we can.

Really in terms of our go-to-market approach, that is driven by our portfolio strategy.

We are guided by our portfolio strategy in terms of how we think about applying pressure in the marketplace and what we really want to stand for.

Okay.

Then just separate follow-up question.

I know it is hard to do, but is there any way you can quantify what you think the impact of the energy tax credit and the appliance -- your strong performance in appliances in November did to the comp in November?

Well, we can tell you for the quarter what we think it is.

That would be fine.

Okay, so we think the impact of energy was about 50 basis points to the US, and appliances was about 120-ish basis points.

Okay, great.

Carol, just a follow-up on that.

Given your expectation that comps improve through the year should we -- your toughest compare now is the fourth quarter.

Would we assume that you will do something similar in the appliance category next year?

Will this become kind of an annual event?

We are not going to share our secrets with you today.

(laughter)

Good luck, then, I guess I will have to watch and see.

Laura Champine, Cowen and Company.

Good morning, guys.

So we are very pleased to see the increase in big-ticket purchases and it looks like you gained some share there.

But Craig, you made a statement that you thought the consumer was still cautious on big-ticket.

What is your evidence there, and what is the outlook for the bigger ticket spending in 2011?

Well, I think two things.

Number one, when you look at the categories that had positive growth that were tied to the tax credits -- so we look at that and go, okay, that is not necessarily repeating.

So that makes us a little bit cautious as a result.

I think then the second piece of it is, is we still need to see improvement in the big projects with the customers.

Not seeing a lot of evidence of major remodels going on in homes at this point.

So that is really the two things that we are looking at from a caution standpoint.

Thanks, then just a clarification on the last answer.

The 120 basis point impact on Q4 from appliances, was that from your own promotions or from stimulus programs for Energy Star appliances?

That was the impact of appliance sales.

Sales, right.

In the quarter.

Right.

Got it.

Okay.

Thank you.

Wayne Hood, BMO Capital.

-- you need to give some thought about --

Wayne, we missed your first part of your question.

Yes, for some reason it blanked out.

Okay.

Can you hear me now?

Okay, terrific.

My question was to Craig.

I guess you are sitting at record gross margin levels from where we are today and over the next 12 months.

Are we at an inflection point where you begin to give some consideration to reinvesting more into price in areas like appliances, to drive growth in market share and let your gross margins kind of flatten in '12 and '13?

Instead of having modest increases, maybe it is slight?

So as it relates to our strategy, first and foremost what we are trying to do is continue to lower prices for our customers on a day-in, day-out basis and drive greater value for them.

We are trying to manage, obviously, the bottom line by driving improved efficiencies in how we run the business.

So things like the 32% reduction in clearance inventory, which saves the margin line obviously, are how we have been able to deliver the improvement to date and still be able to lower prices for our customers.

And that is our continued focus.

We shared at our analyst meeting that as we moved into 2011 we will begin to see benefit from our supply chain, and much less of it comes from our merchandising.

Okay, just a follow-up for you too, Craig.

Where do you think your inventory will be by the end of the second quarter and the end of the year?

And then Carol, where are you thinking the payables to inventory would be for the year?

Just so we can take a look at your cash flow.

Well, why don't we put it in terms -- if I could jump in, Craig -- put it in terms of net working capital, so that would be receivables, inventory, and payables.

As of the end of 2010 net working capital as a percent of sales was 10.3%.

We project, based on the guidance that we have shared with you this morning, that it will drop to 9.8% by the end of 2011.

All right.

Thank you.

Greg Melich, International Strategy Investments.

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

I wanted to get into the SG&A a little bit more and the earnings progression.

I think you mentioned that first-half earnings growth should be better than second half, given even some of the comparisons on SG&A; yet the comps would be weaker in the first half than the second half.

Could you take us through the logic behind that?

What's driving it?

And also do you have the Durbin amendment and the benefits in your guidance for this year?

Yes, absolutely.

As I mentioned we have about $70 million of expense benefit that we don't believe will repeat in 2011.

That expense benefit took place in the back half of 2010.

You will recall in the third quarter we told you that we had $20 million of gains from real estate sales.

We don't believe we will have those gains next year.

In the fourth quarter we just called out a $24 million year-over-year benefit related to our private label credit.

The gross benefit was $44 million.

That won't repeat next year.

So that takes us to $64 million of expense benefit that won't repeat; and then there was about $6 million of other items that won't repeat.

And all of that took place in the back half of the year.

So that is why the year-over-year earnings is different than the year-over-year sales growth estimate.

On the Durbin side, as you know the Durbin amendment asks the Federal Reserve to determine what reasonable and proportionate fees should be for debit.

Debit makes up about 17% of our tender penetration.

Based on the Fed's draft regulations, we think the benefit to The Home Depot could be $35 million a year.

Now because it hasn't been implemented, clearly the benefit to us would be less than $35 million in 2011.

And because we don't know when it's going to be implemented, we have not put any of that in our plan.

Great.

That's very clear.

Then if I could follow up on commodity inflation, you said that that is a neutral environment in your gross margins.

But what did commodity inflation actually impact comp in the fourth quarter?

And what do you expect in the top line for commodities this year?

Thanks.

So between lumber and copper in the quarter, it was approximately 50 basis points of impact.

And then the guidance for this year?

We basically planned for flat.

Great.

Well, thanks.

Great quarter, all.

Steve Chick, FBR Capital Markets.

Hi, thanks.

I guess a question on weather and with the storms we've seen and the commentary you made about January, is there a way to I guess plan or assess what the restoration might be, if you might get a benefit of that in terms of recovery and restoration?

And have you seen any pickup as you moved beyond January and I guess you could say thawed out or gotten further into February here?

Steve, this is Craig.

I really don't have a way to quantify it.

There is no way for us to do that.

But what I can tell you is that we certainly believe that folks will have to repair things.

When you look at the amount of ice and snow that existed, you will have roof damage; you will have live good damage in terms of shrubs, bushes; their gutters will need to be replaced.

So we are certainly prepared for that and anticipate that.

As we look in our business in February, the first couple of weeks of February the weather was horrible.

But it has gotten better, and February comps are running better than our January comps.

Okay, thanks.

Alan Rifkin, Bank of America.

Thank you very much.

Frank, with big ticket up so strong and obviously a significant contributor to comps, could you maybe shed some color on how good of a leading indicator you believe big-ticket strength is in other parts of your business, even including repair and maintenance?

Well, let me start with the repair and maintenance.

Again, we have shared on past calls that that has been a strength in our business, and certainly repair and maintenance categories continue to perform positively.

So the customer is still focused there.

As we look at the big-ticket, particularly around the fourth quarter, certainly the drivers behind that again were the great values that we had in our appliance offerings.

It is a good appliance time in the industry in total, and we went after that with some great values and did very well.

But then you look at the categories that were impacted by tax credits and those performed extremely well.

Certainly that environment obviously has now changed, so we think that that adds some pressure going forward and don't really anticipate the same level of big-ticket performance as we move through the first half of the year.

Okay, thank you.

One follow-up if I may.

With the RDC program completed last month, can you maybe just give us an update on what you think the gross margin benefits will be, as well as the benefit to turns?

Would it be unreasonable to expect that 2011 shouldn't be the year where you realize the maximum benefits from the RDC rollout, now that the expenses are behind you?

So, Alan, I wouldn't say that it is the year of the maximum benefit, but it is the year it starts to turn to a benefit.

As we have been describing this all along there is an investment and then the benefit starts to come forward.

As we talked about in December, we saw overall 40 basis points, with 30 coming from the supply chain and the RDCs as it picks up.

You start to see that benefit as we go forward in 2011.

Okay.

Thank you very much.

Deborah Weinswig, Citigroup.

Thanks so much and congratulations on a great quarter.

Carol, you mentioned great expense control due to some new tools.

I am pretty well versed on your merchandising tools; but can you please expand on the tools that helped deliver the Company's great expense results in the quarter?

And what inning are we on, on these tools?

I think we have talked in the past about a new checkbook that we introduced in the stores that really helps the stores manage their operating expenses, like their personal bank account.

They have great visibility now.

They can actually pull up images of invoices.

It is just really helping them get their arms around our expenses.

We also have cost-out teams here at the store support center.

These teams go aggressively against cost.

We do a lot of cohort analysis, just superior analytics, helping us really getting underneath the costs.

There is a sense of enthusiasm.

We are really enthusiastic about sales; but there is a real sense of enthusiasm about cost control too, and we recognize people who drive out costs.

You might say -- are you done?

We are not done.

If you think about the expense plan that we put together for 2011, expenses would be growing faster if we didn't have expense control in place.

So we have still got opportunities to drive productivity in our business, for sure; and a lot of that is coming from the technology initiatives at Matt and his team are driving in our business.

With technology, boy, lots of cost can go out.

So, Deborah, give you a perspective on the P&L checkbook.

Before we rolled this out a store would have to wait until the 15th of the month to see the expenses from the previous month.

So it's impossible to really manage it effectively.

Now you have basically a real-time view of what you're spending based on your budget by line items.

So to Carol's point, it gives the store team just a much better handle and tremendous visibility and transparency around what they are spending, how they are spending, to the rate of plan.

And it just allows us to be much more efficient in managing that overall expense line.

Great, thanks so much.

Staying on the technology theme, can you talk about how much of your sales were online in 2010?

How do you see that growing in 2011, and maybe some of the initiatives behind that as well?

But, Deb, we have said on online that we are not going to talk about it as a separate business for a while yet.

It is still -- we need it to get to be a more significant and material part of our sales before we break it out.

Which means --

I was trying.

I know what you have said, Frank, but I was trying.

But we're very pleased.

But can you just maybe talk about some of the initiatives in place?

We are very pleased with the improvement we have seen on online.

Again for us it serves multiple functions.

It is not only a vehicle for selling product but it's also a vehicle for educating our customers around product and projects.

So as I say we are making a lot of investments in it and we are very pleased with the progress.

Great.

Thanks so much and congratulations again.

Cindy, we have time for one more question.

Matthew Fassler, Goldman Sachs.

Just under the wire.

Thank you so much.

My question relates to market dynamics.

I believe you alluded to gaining share in roughly half of your categories as measured by units.

If you could give us a sense as to where those share gains were, how that trend compared with prior quarters.

And then as part of that discussion, what you have seen in terms of promotional dynamics in the space, particularly in some of the hotter categories, if you will, like appliances.

Sure, Matt.

This is Craig.

We gained share in building materials, tools, hardware, plumbing, electrical, lawn and garden, both sides of that, as well as appliances.

Quarter-to-quarter, again that is unit share based on consumer activity.

So quarter-to-quarter those can fluctuate a little bit.

But when we look at it on a rolling 12-month basis those are areas where we are continuing to show progress over time.

I think as it relates to the marketplace, again we feel that we are applying a significant amount of pressure in the market in terms of really offering our customers outstanding values.

History of our Company has all been about finding special buys, working with our suppliers to come up with something that helps them drive volume through their factories; we can pass along savings to our customers.

It creates urgency to bring the customers into the store.

And I think we did a really good job of that in the fourth quarter, which helped our numbers.

So we will continue to follow that strategy.

Any comments on just the competitive dynamic?

Did you see competitive responses or competitive aggressiveness, particularly -- or in November and December?

Seemed somewhat similar to previous quarters.

Great.

Thank you so much.

Well, thank you to everyone for joining us today.

We look forward to talking to you at our next earnings call which will be in May.

That does conclude today's conference.

Again, thank you for your participation today.