高盛 (GS) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Dennis, and I will be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded today, July 15, 2020. Thank you. Ms. Miner, you may begin your conference.

早安。我叫 Dennis，今天將擔任本次會議的主持人。歡迎各位參加高盛集團 2020 年第二季財報電話會議。本通話於 2020 年 7 月 15 日錄音。謝謝。Miner 女士，您可以開始您的會議。

Thanks, Dennis. Good morning. This is Heather Kennedy Miner, Head of Investor Relations at Goldman Sachs. Welcome to our second quarter earnings conference call.

謝謝你，Dennis。早安。我是 Heather Kennedy Miner，高盛投資人關係主管。歡迎參加我們的第二季財報電話會議。

Today, we will reference our earnings presentation, which can be found on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.gs.com. No information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures appear on the earnings release and presentation. This audiocast is copyrighted material of the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and may not be duplicated, reproduced or rebroadcast without our consent.

今天我們將引用我們的財報簡報，您可在我們網站 www.gs.com 的投資人關係頁面找到。關於前瞻性陳述與非 GAAP 衡量指標的資訊，請參閱財報新聞稿與簡報。本次音訊網播為高盛集團（Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.）之著作權資料。未經我們同意，不得複製、重製或再廣播。

Today, I'm joined by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon; and our Chief Financial Officer, Stephen Scherr. David will start by reviewing the second quarter and first half performance. He will then provide an update on several key strategic growth initiatives and the macroeconomic backdrop. David will also address the firm's commitments to diversity and discuss our return-to-office strategy. Stephen will then discuss the recent stress test and our second quarter results in greater detail. David and Stephen will be happy to take your questions following their remarks.

今天與我一同出席的有本公司董事長兼執行長 David Solomon，以及財務長 Stephen Scherr。David 將先回顧第二季與上半年表現。接著他將就數項關鍵策略性成長計畫與總體經濟背景提供最新進展。David 也將談及本公司對多元化的承諾，並討論我們的返辦策略。之後 Stephen 將更詳細說明近期壓力測試以及我們第二季的業績。在兩位發言結束後，David 與 Stephen 很樂意回答各位的提問。

I'll now pass the call over to David. David?

現在我把電話交給 David。David？

Thanks, Heather, and thank you, everyone, for joining this call this morning. I would like to start by saying that all of us at Goldman Sachs hope that you, your friends and your family remain safe and healthy during this unprecedented global health crisis.

謝謝你，Heather，也謝謝各位今天早上加入本次電話會議。我想先表示，高盛的所有同仁都希望在這場前所未有的全球健康危機期間，您、您的朋友與家人都能平安健康。

Let me begin on Page 1 of the presentation to review our financial results. In the second quarter, we produced net revenues of $13.3 billion, up 41% versus a year ago. The strength and breadth of our client franchise was evident this quarter as we delivered solid net earnings of $2.4 billion, earnings per share of $6.26 and a return on equity of 11.1% and a return on tangible equity of 11.8%.

讓我從簡報第 1 頁開始回顧我們的財務結果。第二季我們的淨營收為 133 億美元，較去年同期成長 41%。本季我們展現了客戶平台的實力與廣度，實現穩健的淨利 24 億美元、每股盈餘 6.26 美元，股東權益報酬率（ROE）為 11.1%，有形股東權益報酬率（ROTE）為 11.8%。

Our results in the quarter were strong, even while incurring higher credit provisions and litigation expenses, both of which impacted our returns. Our second quarter results contributed to solid first half 2020 revenues of $22 billion, net earnings of $3.6 billion and an ROE of 8.4% and ROTE of 9%. Litigation costs burdened our first half returns by approximately 280 basis points. Returns were also impacted by higher reserve build for credit losses.

本季業績表現強勁，即使我們承擔了較高的信用提存與訴訟費用，兩者皆對報酬率造成影響。第二季的結果使我們 2020 年上半年營收達 220 億美元、淨利 36 億美元，ROE 為 8.4%，ROTE 為 9%。訴訟成本使上半年報酬率約降低 280 個基點。報酬率亦受到信用損失準備金增加的影響。

The second quarter demonstrated the strength of our diversified business and was driven by significant new issue volumes and the countercyclical performance of our market making activities. We maintained our leading position as a strategic adviser of choice for our investment banking clients and our strong lead table positions across underwriting markets with extraordinary volumes in both debt and equity, enabling us to pick up market share.

第二季展現了我們多元化業務的實力，主要受大量新發行量以及我們做市活動的逆循環表現所帶動。我們持續保持作為投資銀行客戶首選策略顧問的領先地位，並在承銷市場的主承銷排行維持強勢；債券與股票市場皆出現非同尋常的發行量，使我們得以提升市占率。

We delivered exceptional performance in FICC and Equities on high levels of client activity, deploying our risk intermediation expertise and our balance sheet on behalf of clients in a volatile market. We continued to provide high-quality advice to our wealth management clients and generated another quarter of solid consumer deposit growth.

在客戶活動高度活躍的帶動下，我們在固定收益、貨幣與商品（FICC）以及股票業務繳出卓越表現；在波動市場中，我們代表客戶運用風險中介專長與資產負債表。我們持續為財富管理客戶提供高品質建議，並再度實現穩健的消費者存款成長。

In asset management, we recognized gains from market appreciation in our public investments, continued to harvest private equity positions and experienced a partial recovery in our credit portfolio from the first quarter. Importantly, we maintained a strong and highly liquid balance sheet with an improving capital position amid high levels of market volatility and economic stress.

在資產管理方面，我們因公開市場投資的市場回升而認列收益，持續收割私募股權部位，且信用投資組合自第一季起出現部分復甦。重要的是，在市場高度波動與經濟壓力之下，我們仍維持強健且高度流動的資產負債表，資本狀況亦持續改善。

Turning to the operating environment on Page 2. We are navigating an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop brought on by an extraordinary global health crisis. During the second quarter, we experienced both positive and negative forces, reflecting the near-term economic challenges related to recent business shutdowns counterbalanced by continued support from central banks and governments and market optimism as certain economies began to reopen. However, as we speak today, the path to reopening in many U.S. states and corresponding economic consequences remain unclear.

接著看簡報第 2 頁的營運環境。我們正面對由前所未有的全球健康危機所引發的不確定總體經濟背景。第二季我們同時經歷正面與負面力量：近期因企業停業帶來的經濟挑戰，與央行及政府持續支持、以及部分經濟體開始重啟所帶來的市場樂觀情緒相互抵銷。然而，就我們今天所見，美國許多州的重啟路徑及其相應的經濟後果仍不明朗。

Since our April earnings call, our economist estimates for 2020 U.S. GDP improved from an expected contraction in 2020 of 6.2% to 4.6% today, driven by expectations of a faster rebound from a deeper trough. That said, on a global basis, growth expectations for 2020 deteriorated from an expected 2.5% decline in April to a 3.4% contraction expected today with the second quarter reflecting a deeper decline in activity than expected 3 months ago.

自我們 4 月的財報電話會議以來，我們經濟學家對 2020 年美國 GDP 的估計已改善：由原先預期 2020 年萎縮 6.2%，調整為目前預期萎縮 4.6%，主要反映在更深的谷底之後，復甦速度可能更快。但在全球層面，2020 年成長預期則轉差：由 4 月預期下滑 2.5%，惡化為目前預期萎縮 3.4%，其中第二季的活動下滑幅度較 3 個月前預期更深。

The prospect for a steeper recovery in the second half is in no small part due to the forceful and rapid action by government central banks and governments -- by global central banks and governments, which are providing exceptional levels of liquidity and ongoing fiscal stimulus. These actions have been key to market resilience, tempering the economic impact of the virus.

下半年可能出現較陡峭復甦的前景，很大一部分歸因於各國央行與政府迅速且強力的行動——全球央行與政府提供了極高水準的流動性與持續的財政刺激。這些行動是市場韌性的關鍵，有助於緩和病毒對經濟的衝擊。

In the United States, we are seeing early indications of economic improvement, including the better-than-expected 18% rebound in retail sales and notable improvement in unemployment in June to approximately 11% for more elevated numbers in May. As markets assess the impact of the virus in the second quarter and its potential economic consequence, we experienced a rise in the valuation of risk assets.

在美國，我們看到經濟改善的初步跡象，包括零售銷售優於預期反彈 18%，以及 6 月失業率明顯改善至約 11%，相較 5 月更高的水準。當市場評估第二季病毒影響及其潛在經濟後果時，我們看到風險資產估值上升。

During the second quarter, the S&P 500 rallied by 20%, marking its best quarter since 1998, while broader global equity markets rose a similar amount. Investment-grade spreads tightened by over 80 basis points and high-yield spreads tightened by roughly 140 basis points this quarter. In the context of these moves in financial assets, strong levels of client engagement during the second quarter demonstrate the breadth and the strength of our franchise.

第二季標普 500 指數上漲 20%，創下自 1998 年以來最佳單季表現，而更廣泛的全球股市亦上漲相近幅度。投資級利差收斂逾 80 個基點，高收益利差本季約收斂 140 個基點。在這些金融資產變動的背景下，第二季客戶高度參與，展現了我們平台的廣度與實力。

As we go forward as risk managers, we continue to prepare for the prolonged economic challenges and look beyond market valuations and our overall assessment of risk. We maintain a strong financial profile and remain agile with our balance sheet as we continue to serve our clients.

展望未來，作為風險管理者，我們仍持續為可能延長的經濟挑戰做準備，並在評估風險時不僅著眼於市場估值。我們維持強健的財務體質，並在持續服務客戶的同時，保持資產負債表的靈活性。

Pivoting for a moment, I am pleased to note that volatility in the first half of 2020 did not hinder our progress on most of our key growth initiatives. On June 16, we officially launched our transaction banking service to U.S. clients on time and below budget despite the unexpected challenges of shifting our global team to work from home and launching the platform remotely. As of quarter end, we have over 175 clients on the platform and $25 billion in deposits, many of which we expect will become operational as clients begin to utilize -- begin their utilization of the platform over time.

稍作轉換，我很高興指出，2020 年上半年的波動並未阻礙我們在多數關鍵成長計畫上的進展。6 月 16 日，儘管面臨將全球團隊轉為居家辦公、並以遠端方式上線平台的意外挑戰，我們仍按時且低於預算，正式向美國客戶推出交易銀行服務。截至季末，平台上已有超過 175 家客戶與 250 億美元存款，其中許多預期將在客戶隨時間開始使用——開始逐步使用該平台後，轉為營運性存款。

Second, in alternatives, we accelerated the marketing of a new credit fund called West Street Strategic Solutions as a part of our transition to fund-driven investing. Client receptivity has been very strong. We believe this strategy is well-timed to capture opportunities in the market today and provide critical private financing to companies in need.

第二，在另類投資方面，作為我們轉向以基金驅動投資的一部分，我們加速推廣一檔名為 West Street Strategic Solutions 的新信用基金。客戶反應非常熱烈。我們相信此策略時機恰當，能把握當前市場機會，並為有需求的企業提供關鍵的私募融資。

Our approach is highly differentiated, leveraging the broad global sourcing capabilities of Goldman Sachs. Just this week, we have closed on over $6 billion of commitments. Ultimately, we expect to raise in excess of $10 billion in the coming months. What is most impressive is that our first close occurred in less than 90 days entirely via virtual meetings.

我們的方法具高度差異化，善用高盛廣泛的全球案源開發能力。就在本週，我們已完成超過 60 億美元的承諾資金首輪募集。最終，我們預期在未來數月募集超過 100 億美元。最令人印象深刻的是，我們的首次募集在不到 90 天內完成，且全程透過線上會議進行。

We are broadening our client base to include leading institutions and pension fund investors that have not partnered with Goldman Sachs before. These expanding relationships will be helpful to our efforts as additional strategies and funds are launched. You will recall that this initiative was part of our strategy discussed in Investor Day in January and promises to be significant in our move toward a less capital-intensive, more fee-driven model for our investing platforms.

我們正在擴大客戶基礎，納入過去未曾與高盛合作的領先機構與退休基金投資人。隨著更多策略與基金推出，這些持續擴展的合作關係將有助於我們的推進工作。各位應該記得，這項倡議是我們在一月投資人日所討論策略的一部分，並且有望在我們朝向資本占用更低、以費用收入驅動的投資平台模式轉型過程中發揮重要作用。

Third, in Wealth Management, we continue to integrate our new high net worth business, which we recently rebranded Personal Financial Management. Year-to-date, we have generated over 400 client referrals between Personal Financial Management and our flagship ultra-high net worth Private Wealth business, representing $1.5 billion in assets under supervision opportunity as we now have a credible offering to serve high net worth clients. That said, establishing new wealth management relationships in the current environment with only virtual communications is challenging. We would expect our progress to accelerate under more normal circumstances.

第三，在財富管理方面，我們持續整合新建立的高淨值業務，並已於近期重新品牌為「個人財務管理」。年初至今，我們在個人財務管理與旗艦超高淨值私人財富業務之間已促成超過400筆客戶轉介，代表約15億美元的受監督資產（AUS）機會；因為我們如今已具備可信的產品與服務，能夠服務高淨值客戶。話雖如此，在目前僅能透過虛擬溝通的環境下，建立新的財富管理關係相當具挑戰性。我們預期在更正常的情況下，我們的進展將會加速。

Fourth, we continue to expand our digital consumer business. We were pleased to announce our new small business lending partnership with Amazon, which will allow us to leverage our proprietary digital underwriting decision platform using data shared by Amazon's third-party sellers to provide inventory and operational financing to support their growth. This partnership, which is being launched on a smaller scale at this moment, is another example of our innovation and our ability to partner with leading corporations to deliver differentiated value to our customers. Our consumer partnership also included our recent point-of-sale financing engagement with JetBlue and of course, our credit card with Apple.

第四，我們持續擴展數位消費金融業務。我們很高興宣布與亞馬遜建立新的小型企業放款合作夥伴關係，這將使我們能運用自有的數位核貸決策平台，使用亞馬遜第三方賣家分享的數據，提供庫存與營運融資以支持其成長。這項合作目前以較小規模啟動，是我們創新能力以及與領先企業合作、為客戶提供差異化價值能力的另一個例證。我們的消費金融合作也包括近期與捷藍航空（JetBlue）的銷售點分期融資合作，當然還有我們與蘋果（Apple）合作的信用卡。

Before turning to Stephen, I would like to spend a moment on diversity and inclusion, which is a critical priority for the firm and a personal focus of mine for many years. Like so many others over the past 6 weeks, I've spent a lot of time listening and learning about the challenges we face as a nation on racial equity. While Goldman Sachs has long sought to advance diversity and inclusion, we are still not where we need to be. It is both a moral and economic imperative that we make progress. We must be a diverse and inclusive organization to unlock our full potential as we serve a global marketplace that is diverse in all aspects, including race, ethnicity, gender and sexual orientation.

在交給Stephen之前，我想花一點時間談談多元與共融，這是本公司至關重要的優先事項，也是我多年來個人關注的重點。在過去6週裡，和許多人一樣，我花了很多時間傾聽並學習我們國家在種族平等方面所面臨的挑戰。儘管高盛長期致力於推動多元與共融，但我們仍未達到應有的水準。推動進展既是道德上的要求，也是經濟上的必要。為了在服務一個在各方面都多元的全球市場（包括種族、族裔、性別與性取向）時充分釋放我們的全部潛力，我們必須成為一個多元且共融的組織。

Lastly, let me review our business resiliency and return-to-office strategy, which has begun in our major offices globally. The firm continues to seamlessly serve our clients while the vast majority of our employees work remotely, demonstrating the dedication of our people, the strength of our technology and our business resiliency.

最後，讓我回顧我們的業務韌性以及重返辦公室策略；該策略已在我們全球主要辦公室開始推行。在絕大多數員工遠端工作的情況下，本公司仍持續無縫服務客戶，展現了同仁的投入、科技的實力以及我們的業務韌性。

Our firm has always had a team-oriented apprenticeship culture, and we benefit from being and working together. So as each of the communities where we operate reopens, we are taking the necessary steps to gradually return to office in a safe manner.

本公司一向擁有以團隊為導向的師徒制文化，我們因為能夠相聚並共同工作而受益。因此，隨著我們營運所在的各個社區逐步重啟，我們正採取必要措施，以安全的方式逐步返回辦公室。

We are following the lead of our Asian colleagues, where in Hong Kong, we're using a split-team approach with up to 50% working from the office. We're also making progress in Europe where on the continent, 35% returned; and in the U.K., where approximately 15% of our employees are back in office. Recently, in New York, a small group of employees have returned to office.

我們參考亞洲同事的做法；在香港，我們採用分組輪班方式，最多可有50%的人員在辦公室工作。我們在歐洲也取得進展：在歐陸地區已有35%返回；在英國，約有15%的員工已回到辦公室。最近在紐約，也有一小部分員工已返回辦公室。

Going forward, our progress will be dictated by circumstances in each region and we will adjust as needed. We are taking many new precautions to ensure safety, including through masks and social distancing, and it's certainly not business as usual, but we're making tangible forward progress. As we take these steps, we will continue to keep the health and safety of our people as our top priority.

展望未來，我們的進度將取決於各地區的情況，並會視需要調整。我們採取了許多新的防護措施以確保安全，包括配戴口罩與保持社交距離；這當然不是一切如常，但我們正在取得具體的前進成果。在採取這些步驟的同時，我們將持續把同仁的健康與安全放在首要位置。

In closing, I would just like to say how proud I am of the people of Goldman Sachs. They have worked tirelessly during this time to engage and serve our clients, leverage technology to ensure our resiliency and prudently manage our risk and financial resources.

最後，我只想說，我為高盛的同仁感到非常自豪。在這段期間，他們不懈努力與客戶互動並提供服務，運用科技確保我們的韌性，並審慎管理風險與財務資源。

With that, I'll turn it over to Stephen.

接下來，我把時間交給Stephen。

Thank you, David, and good morning. Let me begin with our summary results on Page 3. During the second quarter, we saw a very strong performance from our Investment Banking and Global Markets segments as clients were exceptionally active in raising capital in the equity and debt markets, managing balance sheets, repositioning investment portfolios and hedging risks across asset classes.

謝謝你，David，大家早安。我先從第3頁的摘要結果開始。第二季，我們的投資銀行與全球市場部門表現非常強勁，因為客戶在股票與債券市場籌資、管理資產負債表、重新配置投資組合，以及跨資產類別進行風險對沖方面都異常活躍。

We also saw year-over-year revenue growth in our Consumer & Wealth Management segment as we continue to expand our private wealth, high net worth and consumer businesses. Gains across these 3 segments were partly offset by a decline in our Asset Management segment given smaller gains on equity investments versus a year ago.

我們也看到消費者與財富管理部門的營收年增，因為我們持續擴展私人財富、高淨值與消費金融業務。這三個部門的增長，部分被資產管理部門的下滑所抵銷，原因是相較去年，股票投資的收益較小。

Before turning to segment results, I want to spend a minute on capital, particularly in light of the recent Federal Reserve stress test results. On June 29, we disclosed the Federal Reserve's indicative stress capital buffer estimate for Goldman Sachs of 6.7%, which implies a Common Equity Tier 1 requirement of 13.7% for the firm effective October 1. While higher than anticipated, this requirement is just slightly higher than our reported standardized CET1 ratio of 13.6% as of June 30. In fact, our current CET1 ratio improved by 110 basis points this quarter and is now 30 basis points higher than where we started this year, demonstrating our ability to effectively manage our capital while deploying balance sheet for our clients.

在進入各部門結果之前，我想花一分鐘談談資本，特別是鑑於近期聯準會壓力測試結果。6月29日，我們披露聯準會對高盛的指示性壓力資本緩衝（SCB）估計為6.7%，這意味著本公司自10月1日起的普通股權第一級資本（CET1）要求為13.7%。雖然高於預期，但該要求僅略高於我們截至6月30日所報告的標準化CET1比率13.6%。事實上，我們目前的CET1比率本季提升了110個基點，現已較今年年初高出30個基點，顯示我們在為客戶運用資產負債表的同時，仍能有效管理資本。

Consistent with the Federal Reserve's requirements for all large banks, we will extend the suspension of share repurchases into the third quarter. But it is our intention to maintain our dividends, both common and preferred, while complying with the SCB rule upon implementation. Furthermore, we will continue to pursue our long-standing practice of deploying capital to our business where returns are accretive and otherwise returning it to our shareholders as permissible and ever mindful of the environment.

依照聯準會對所有大型銀行的要求，我們將把暫停股票回購延長至第三季。但我們的意圖是在遵循SCB規則實施的前提下，維持普通股與優先股股利。此外，我們將延續長期做法：在回報具增益（accretive）的情況下將資本投入業務，否則在允許範圍內返還給股東，同時始終留意整體環境。

As we consider the results of the stress test, it is important to bear in mind that the firm, like the industry, experienced an actual stress test over the past few months. The global economy contracted sharply and unemployment in the U.S. hit levels higher than contemplated in the Federal Reserve's severely adverse scenario. During this period, we maintained robust levels of liquidity and capital. And despite the stress, the firm emerged from the second quarter stronger and continues to serve clients from a position of financial and competitive strength and with the objective of producing attractive returns for our shareholders.

在我們看待壓力測試結果時，重要的是要記住，本公司與整個產業一樣，在過去幾個月其實經歷了一次真實的壓力測試。全球經濟急劇收縮，美國失業率升至高於聯準會「嚴重不利」情境所設想的水準。在此期間，我們維持了充足的流動性與資本水準。儘管面臨壓力，本公司在第二季結束後以更強的姿態走出，並持續以財務與競爭優勢的地位服務客戶，同時以為股東創造具吸引力回報為目標。

Looking forward, we continue to believe that the 13% to 13.5% standardized CET1 target range provided at Investor Day is appropriate for our firm on a medium-term basis, but we recognize our near-term capital requirement is higher in light of the stress test results. We do not control the Federal Reserve scenarios and models. But the results only serve to reaffirm the importance of executing the strategy outlined at Investor Day, with a focus on diversifying our business mix and reducing the stress capital intensity of our balance sheet.

展望未來，我們仍相信在投資人日所提供的13%至13.5%標準化CET1目標區間，於中期而言適合本公司；但鑑於壓力測試結果，我們也認知短期資本要求較高。聯準會的情境與模型並非由我們控制。但這些結果只會再次確認：執行投資人日所概述策略的重要性，重點在於多元化我們的業務組合，並降低資產負債表的壓力資本強度。

As David highlighted, our execution of this strategy is advancing. We have sold or announced the sale of nearly $4 billion in equity investments year-to-date, including our agreed sale of Global Atlantic just last week, which will have positive implications for capital and balance sheet. We remain committed to capital efficiency as we diversify our business and grow more durable revenues.

如David所強調，我們對該策略的執行正在推進。年初至今，我們已出售或宣布出售近40億美元的股權投資，包括就在上週同意出售Global Atlantic；這將對資本與資產負債表帶來正面影響。在多元化業務並成長更具持久性的收入之際，我們仍致力於提升資本效率。

With that, let's now turn to our business performance on Page 4, beginning with Investment Banking. Investment Banking produced second quarter net revenues of $2.7 billion, up 36% versus a year ago. Financial advisory revenues of $686 million remained healthy but down 11% versus last year amid fewer transaction closings, consistent with the industry. Year-to-date, we participated in nearly $290 billion of announced transactions and closed over 140 deals for $600 billion of deal volume. We maintained our #1 position in both announced and completed M&A league table rankings by a considerable margin.

接下來，讓我們翻到第 4 頁，檢視我們的業務表現，先從投資銀行業務開始。投資銀行業務第二季淨營收為 27 億美元，較去年同期成長 36%。財務顧問業務營收為 6.86 億美元，仍維持穩健，但在交易完成件數較少、與產業趨勢一致的情況下，較去年下降 11%。年初至今，我們參與了近 2,900 億美元的已公告交易，並完成逾 140 筆交易，成交金額達 6,000 億美元。我們在已公告與已完成的併購（M&A）排行榜排名中，仍以相當大的差距維持第 1 名。

While recent M&A announcements have slowed, our investment banking client dialogues remain very active, with client interactions up over 30% versus last year, notwithstanding the continuing work-from-home dynamic. In the second half, we are watching for a potential pickup in M&A activity both from companies coming from a position of strength as well as those challenged by the environment. Dislocated asset prices will help drive those opportunities as will the significant amount of private capital available for deployment. That said, macro and political uncertainty remain relevant and will influence outcomes.

儘管近期併購公告放緩，我們與投資銀行客戶的對話仍非常活躍；即便持續維持居家辦公的態勢，客戶互動次數仍較去年增加逾 30%。下半年，我們將觀察併購活動是否可能回升，動能可能來自處於優勢地位的公司，以及同樣可能來自受環境挑戰的公司。資產價格的錯位將有助於推動這些機會，此外，可供投入部署的大量私募資本也將提供助力。不過，總體與政治不確定性仍然重要，並將影響結果。

As M&A announcements declined in the quarter, the headline for investment banking was in underwriting. In these turbulent markets, we have seen our underwriting market shares increase as clients have turned to Goldman Sachs particularly for more complex and innovative financings, where execution matters. In equity underwriting, we delivered record quarterly net revenues of $1.1 billion. Year-to-date, we ranked #1 globally in equity underwriting as our volumes jumped to over $50 billion across more than 270 deals.

本季併購公告下滑之際，投資銀行業務的焦點在承銷。在這些動盪市場中，隨著客戶轉向高盛，特別是在更複雜且更具創新性的融資（執行力至關重要）方面，我們的承銷市占率有所提升。在股票承銷方面，我們創下單季淨營收 11 億美元的歷史新高。年初至今，我們在全球股票承銷排名第 1，承銷量躍升至逾 500 億美元、涵蓋超過 270 筆交易。

We saw strong activity this quarter across IPOs, follow-ons and private issuances. Convertibles also had record activity where we ranked #1. In debt underwriting, net revenues were $990 million, up 93% from a year ago as we helped finance record U.S. investment-grade volumes and supported a broader reopening of the high-yield market.

本季我們在 IPO、增發以及私募發行方面都看到強勁活動。可轉換債亦出現創紀錄的活動量，我們排名第 1。在債券承銷方面，淨營收為 9.90 億美元，較去年同期成長 93%；我們協助融資創紀錄的美國投資級發行量，並支持高收益市場更廣泛的重新開放。

Since the crisis hit, our market shares in investment grade and high yield have increased globally, driving our #4 ranking in global debt underwriting. This performance, amidst the volatility of the last several months, is the product of many years of strategic focus and investment in our client franchise.

自危機爆發以來，我們在投資級與高收益領域的全球市占率均有所提升，推動我們在全球債券承銷排名第 4。在過去數月的波動環境中取得此一表現，源自我們多年來對客戶版圖的策略聚焦與投入。

Given the pace of activity, our Investment Banking backlog decreased significantly versus the first quarter. This is a function of both the volume of our recent deal execution and slower replenishment. It is also important to point out that the time line from discussion to execution, notably in financing, has shortened in this period and therefore, backlog may, for the moment, be an incomplete indicator of forward activity.

鑑於活動節奏，我們的投資銀行待辦業務量（backlog）較第一季顯著下降。這反映了我們近期交易執行量大，以及補充速度放緩的共同影響。同時也必須指出，在此期間，從討論到執行的時間軸（尤其在融資方面）已縮短，因此在目前階段，待辦量可能不是衡量未來活動的完整指標。

Revenues from corporate lending were negative $76 million, reflecting $200 million of hedge losses. For risk management purposes, we maintained single name hedges on certain larger relationship lending commitments. As credit spreads tightened during the quarter, we reversed much of the $375 million hedge gain we saw last quarter.

企業放款的營收為負 7,600 萬美元，反映 2 億美元的避險損失。基於風險管理目的，我們對部分較大型的關係型放款承諾維持單一名稱（single name）避險。隨著本季信用利差收斂，我們回吐了上季所見 3.75 億美元避險收益中的大部分。

With respect to relationship lending, we also saw a meaningful reversal of corporate commitment draws in the quarter, totaling $9 billion in net paydowns as financing conditions improved and we helped clients access the capital markets. The strong issuance market also enabled us to reduce our underwriting commitments in the deals book. For example, we successfully syndicated acquisition financings, including EUR 10 billion for thyssenkrupp and $27 billion for T-Mobile, thereby reducing exposure to the firm.

就關係型放款而言，我們也看到本季企業承諾額度動用出現明顯反轉，淨償還合計 90 億美元；原因在於融資條件改善，且我們協助客戶進入資本市場。強勁的發行市場亦使我們得以降低交易簿（deals book）中的承銷承諾。例如，我們成功分銷併購融資，包括為 thyssenkrupp 安排 100 億歐元、為 T-Mobile 安排 270 億美元，從而降低本行風險曝險。

Moving to Global Markets on Page 5, where we experienced considerable strength in performance. Net revenues were $7.2 billion in the second quarter. Growth in the quarter was driven by significantly higher client activity, continued wider bid-ask spreads and strong risk management amid continued market volatility. The business benefited from expanded market share as investment in the client franchise and our continued strategic commitment to a global business model with scale across asset classes bolstered performance.

接著看第 5 頁的全球市場業務（Global Markets），我們的表現相當強勁。第二季淨營收為 72 億美元。本季成長主要由客戶活動顯著增加、買賣價差持續擴大，以及在市場持續波動下強勁的風險管理所帶動。隨著我們對客戶版圖的投資，以及持續策略性承諾以跨資產類別、具規模的全球業務模式經營，業務受惠於市占率擴張並帶動表現提升。

Turning to FICC on Page 6. Net revenues were $4.2 billion. Growth versus last year was driven by a 163% increase in intermediation and 71% increase in financing revenues. In FICC intermediation, we saw elevated client flows with all 5 of our businesses increasing versus last year.

接著看第 6 頁的 FICC。淨營收為 42 億美元。相較去年，本次成長主要由中介業務（intermediation）增加 163% 以及融資營收增加 71% 所帶動。在 FICC 中介業務方面，我們看到客戶流量維持高檔，旗下 5 項業務均較去年成長。

In credit, our performance benefited from broad-based client engagement and strength across investment grade, high yield and distressed as well as bank loans amid wider bid-ask margins, tighter credit spreads and high new issue volume. We also saw continued success in systematic and electronic market making, including high utilization rates for our bond pricing engine and automated trading, all leading to higher market share for the business.

在信用產品方面，我們的表現受惠於廣泛的客戶參與，以及在投資級、高收益、困境資產（distressed）與銀行貸款等領域的強勁動能；同時也受益於較寬的買賣價差、較緊的信用利差與高新發行量。我們在系統化與電子化做市方面亦持續成功，包括債券定價引擎與自動化交易的高使用率，進而帶動該業務更高的市占率。

In currencies, we had another very active quarter with solid activity among corporates, banks and hedge fund clients. Revenues improved as higher volatility drove significantly higher client volume in the Americas and Europe. Our rates franchise also performed well on strong trading and high levels of client activity as elevated volatility normalized amid coordinated global central bank stimulus.

在外匯方面，本季同樣非常活躍，企業、銀行與避險基金客戶的活動穩健。由於波動性上升帶動美洲與歐洲客戶交易量顯著增加，營收有所改善。在全球央行協同刺激下，先前偏高的波動性趨於正常化；在強勁交易與高水準客戶活動的帶動下，我們的利率業務版圖也表現良好。

In commodities, strong trading performance was aided by high volumes and volatility across all of our businesses, including oil, natural gas and metals. In mortgages, net revenues improved significantly on strength in agency and nonagency trading, partly offset by lower loan trading volumes. Lastly, in FICC financing, we saw considerable strength across repo and structured credit.

在商品方面，油品、天然氣與金屬等各項業務的高交易量與高波動性，助益了強勁的交易表現。在房貸方面，受惠於機構（agency）與非機構（nonagency）交易走強，淨營收顯著改善，但部分被較低的貸款交易量所抵銷。最後，在 FICC 融資方面，我們在附買回（repo）與結構性信用上均看到相當強勁的表現。

Turning to Equities. Net revenues for the second quarter were $2.9 billion, up 46% versus a year ago. Equities intermediation net revenues of $2.2 billion rose 91%, aided by robust performance in cash and derivatives amid elevated client volumes. We saw strength across the board in commissions, market making, electronic trading and ETFs as we executed for a broad base of active, passive, hedge fund and systematic clients. This reflects our multiyear efforts to leverage our scale and expand wallet share. Equity financing revenues of $742 million declined 14% year-over-year driven by tighter spreads, lower average client balances and weakness in Europe given recent dividend cancellations.

接著看股票業務（Equities）。第二季淨營收為 29 億美元，較去年同期成長 46%。股票中介業務淨營收為 22 億美元，成長 91%，在客戶交易量偏高的環境下，現貨與衍生品表現強勁。我們在佣金、做市、電子交易與 ETF 等各方面均展現強勢，為涵蓋主動、被動、避險基金與系統化客戶的廣泛客群執行交易。這反映我們多年來致力於運用規模優勢並擴大錢包份額（wallet share）的成果。股票融資營收為 7.42 億美元，年減 14%，主要因利差收窄、客戶平均餘額下降，以及歐洲因近期股利取消而走弱。

Finally, across Global Markets, we continue to invest in technology platforms to enhance user experience and straight-through processing. We also saw continued high levels of client activity on our Marquee platform through the second quarter with our highest ever external engagement in April.

最後，在全球市場業務方面，我們持續投資科技平台，以提升使用者體驗並強化端到端直通式處理（straight-through processing）。我們也看到第二季 Marquee 平台的客戶活動持續維持高水準，且 4 月的外部互動創下歷史新高。

Moving to Asset Management now on Page 7. In the second quarter, we generated segment revenues of $2.1 billion, down 18% versus a year ago. As a reminder, this segment includes our platform that serves clients across a full spectrum of asset classes from liquidity to alternatives as well as our own on-balance-sheet investing activities. As David mentioned, we expect third-party investing in this segment to grow over time as part of our broader strategic initiatives.

接著看第 7 頁的資產管理（Asset Management）。第二季我們的部門營收為 21 億美元，較去年同期下降 18%。提醒一下，該部門包含我們的平台：為客戶提供從流動性到另類投資等全範圍資產類別的服務，同時也包含我們自身資產負債表上的投資活動。如 David 所提，我們預期該部門的第三方投資業務將隨時間成長，作為我們更廣泛策略計畫的一部分。

Management and other fees related to Asset Management clients totaled $684 million, up 3% versus a year ago, driven by higher assets under supervision, offset by mix, given growth in liquidity products. Equity investments produced $924 million of net gains in the second quarter, aided by asset sales and a significant rebound in the value of public equity positions. More specifically, on our $2.6 billion public equity portfolio, we recognized $635 million of gains, including approximately $200 million in gains on Avantor and Sprout and significantly better performance across the broader portfolio. Despite recent gains, we've reduced the size of our public portfolio by roughly 35% over the past 5 years.

與資產管理客戶相關的管理費及其他費用合計 6.84 億美元，較去年同期增加 3%；主要由受監督資產（assets under supervision）增加所帶動，但因流動性產品成長導致組合結構（mix）影響而部分抵銷。股票投資在第二季產生 9.24 億美元的淨收益，受惠於資產出售以及公開股票部位價值的顯著反彈。更具體而言，在我們 26 億美元的公開股票投資組合中，我們認列 6.35 億美元收益，其中包括 Avantor 與 Sprout 約 2 億美元的收益，且整體投資組合表現明顯改善。儘管近期有所獲利，過去 5 年我們已將公開投資組合規模縮減約 35%。

On our $17 billion private equity portfolio, we generated event-driven gains of approximately $500 million from various positions, including the sale of our U.K. student housing investment and AirTrunk, an Australian data center, both of which we announced last quarter. These gains were offset by $415 million of negative marks relating to certain COVID-impacted and other investments. This quarter, approximately 20% of companies in our private equity portfolio saw their performance impacted by COVID-19. Lastly, we also had positive revenues of $200 million related to our consolidated investment entities in the private equity portfolio.

在我們規模170億美元的私募股權投資組合中，我們從多個部位產生了約5億美元的事件驅動型收益，其中包括我們於上季宣布出售英國學生宿舍投資以及澳洲資料中心AirTrunk。這些收益被與部分受COVID-19影響及其他投資相關的4.15億美元負向評價調整所抵銷。本季，我們私募股權投資組合中約20%的公司之營運表現受到COVID-19影響。最後，我們亦就私募股權投資組合中合併投資實體帶來2億美元的正向收入。

Finally, net revenues from lending and debt investment activities in Asset Management were $459 million, which include approximately $200 million from net interest income with the remainder from gains on fair value debt securities and loans, reflecting tighter credit spreads, retracing nearly 25% of the losses taken last quarter.

最後，資產管理業務中放貸與債務投資活動的淨收入為4.59億美元，其中約2億美元來自淨利息收入，其餘則來自按公允價值計量之債務證券與貸款的收益，反映信用利差收窄，幾乎回補了上季所承受損失的25%。

Let me now turn to Page 8, where we provide further transparency on the composition and diversification of our Asset Management balance sheet. On the left of this slide, we show our equity investment portfolio broken out by sector, geography and vintage. We also provide new detail on our $20 billion portfolio of CIEs. These are primarily comprised of real estate investments, of which $11 billion are financed predominantly by nonrecourse debt.

接下來請看第8頁，我們在此提供更多關於資產管理資產負債表之組成與分散性的透明資訊。在本頁左側，我們按產業別、地理區域及投資年份（vintage）拆分呈現股權投資組合。我們亦新增對規模200億美元之CIE投資組合的細節揭露。該等投資主要由不動產投資構成，其中110億美元主要以無追索權債務融資。

At the bottom of the slide, we show the diversification of the portfolio with only 7% related to the retail sector and 4% to hospitality. On the right side of the slide, we reflect our $30 billion lending and debt investment portfolio, which includes $17 billion of loans that are predominantly secured and $13 billion of debt investments. We further break down these amounts by accounting classification, sector and geography. This portfolio comprises corporate and real estate loans and corporate debt securities. We will continue to refine this disclosure to be responsive to questions from the investor community.

在本頁底部，我們顯示投資組合的分散情況，其中僅7%與零售產業相關、4%與旅宿業相關。在本頁右側，我們呈現規模300億美元的放貸與債務投資組合，其中包括170億美元以擔保為主的貸款，以及130億美元的債務投資。我們並按會計分類、產業別與地理區域進一步拆分上述金額。該投資組合包含企業與不動產貸款，以及公司債務證券。我們將持續精進此項揭露，以回應投資人社群的提問。

I'll now turn to Consumer & Wealth Management on Page 9. In this segment, we produced $1.4 billion of revenues in the second quarter, up 9% versus a year ago driven by higher Wealth Management assets and higher Consumer Banking revenues. For the quarter, wealth management and other fees of $938 million, rose 13% versus last year, reflecting organic growth and the United Capital acquisition. Assets under supervision rose 14% versus the prior year to $558 billion.

接著我將轉到第9頁的消費者與財富管理（Consumer & Wealth Management）。在此分部，我們第二季創造14億美元收入，較去年同期成長9%，主要受惠於財富管理資產增加以及消費金融收入提高。本季財富管理及其他費用收入為9.38億美元，較去年上升13%，反映有機成長以及United Capital收購案的貢獻。受監督資產（assets under supervision）較去年同期上升14%至5,580億美元。

Consumer Banking revenues were $258 million in the second quarter, rising 19% versus last year, reflecting higher net interest income from credit card lending. Consumer deposits at quarter end totaled $92 billion across the U.S. and U.K., reflecting $20 billion of growth in the quarter. Funded consumer loan balances remained stable at roughly $7 billion, of which approximately $5 billion were from Marcus loans and $2 billion from Apple Card. We continue to prudently risk manage these portfolios and have moderated growth relative to initial budget estimates.

消費金融（Consumer Banking）第二季收入為2.58億美元，較去年上升19%，反映信用卡放款帶動的淨利息收入增加。季末消費者存款在美國與英國合計為920億美元，本季增加200億美元。已撥付的消費者貸款餘額維持穩定，約為70億美元，其中約50億美元來自Marcus貸款、20億美元來自Apple Card。我們持續審慎進行風險管理，且相較於初始預算估計已放緩成長。

Now let's turn to Page 10 for our firm-wide assets under supervision. Total client assets increased to $2.1 trillion, up approximately $240 billion versus the first quarter and up nearly $400 billion versus a year ago. This marks the first quarter in which we exceeded $2 trillion in assets under supervision. Our sequential improvement was driven by $100 billion of market appreciation, $133 billion of liquidity inflows and $6 billion of long-term inflows.

現在請看第10頁，了解全公司受監督資產。客戶資產總額增至2.1兆美元，較第一季增加約2,400億美元，較去年同期增加近4,000億美元。這是我們受監督資產首次突破2兆美元的季度。本季的環比改善主要來自1,000億美元的市場升值、1,330億美元的流動性資金流入，以及60億美元的長期資金流入。

On Page 11, we address net interest income and our lending portfolio across all segments. Total firm-wide net interest income was $944 million for the second quarter, down sequentially and versus a year ago amid lower rates and an increase in our liquidity pool. Importantly, and as I have noted previously, as a firm, our overall results are less sensitive to lower interest rates than many traditional banks. While our balance sheet is modestly asset sensitive given our mix of high turnover or floating rate assets and hedge floating rate liabilities, if interest rates remain stable, we expect NII to gradually expand over time as our consumer deposits reprice.

在第11頁，我們說明各分部的淨利息收入以及放貸投資組合。第二季全公司淨利息收入為9.44億美元，受利率較低及流動性資金池增加影響，較前一季及去年同期下降。重要的是，如我先前所提，整體而言，我們的總體業績對低利率的敏感度低於許多傳統銀行。雖然由於我們高周轉或浮動利率資產與對沖之浮動利率負債的組合，使資產負債表對資產端略為敏感，但若利率維持穩定，隨著消費者存款重新定價，我們預期淨利息收入將隨時間逐步擴大。

Next, let's review loan growth and credit performance across the firm. Our total loan portfolio at quarter end was $117 billion, down $11 billion sequentially as we saw significant paydowns on corporate revolvers, as I noted earlier. Our provision for credit losses in the second quarter was $1.6 billion, up $650 million versus last quarter.

接下來，我們檢視全公司貸款成長與信用表現。季末貸款投資組合總額為1,170億美元，較前一季減少110億美元，原因是企業循環信貸額度（revolvers）出現顯著償還，如我先前所述。第二季信用損失準備為16億美元，較上季增加6.5億美元。

Let me break this provision number down for you. On the wholesale portfolio, we took pool reserves of $700 million as modeled losses under CECL were higher relative to the first quarter, principally as a function of macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment and GDP worsening in the second quarter relative to similar inputs during the first quarter. The $700 million included both higher loss expectations and lower recovery rates.

我來為各位拆解這個準備金數字。在批發（wholesale）投資組合方面，我們提列7億美元的組合準備金，因在CECL下模型估計的損失相較第一季更高，主要是由於第二季的失業率、GDP等總體經濟指標相較第一季同類輸入變得更為惡化。這7億美元同時包含較高的損失預期與較低的回收率。

We also took impairments on wholesale loans of $540 million primarily related to credits in the industrials, TMT and natural resource sectors. Included in the $540 million of impairments was $155 million related to Hertz as the company declared bankruptcy. This impairment was the largest in the quarter and was offset by gains on hedges, which served as a risk mitigant with hedge gains reported in the lending subsegment of investment banking.

我們亦就批發貸款認列5.4億美元的減損，主要與工業、TMT（科技、媒體與電信）及天然資源產業的授信相關。在該5.4億美元減損中，包含與Hertz因公司聲請破產而相關的1.55億美元。此項減損為本季最大，並由對沖部位的收益所抵銷；該等對沖收益作為風險緩釋，並於投資銀行分部的放貸子分部中列示。

In our consumer portfolio, provisions of $305 million increased versus last quarter reflecting $220 million of reserve build and $85 million of net charge-offs. During the quarter, we recognized firm-wide net charge-offs of $260 million resulting in an annualized net charge-off ratio of 0.9%, up 40 basis points versus last quarter. At quarter end, our allowance for credit losses for both loans and commitments stood at $4.4 billion, including $3.9 billion for funded loans. Our allowance for funded loans increased 120 basis points to 3.7% for our $105 billion accrual portfolio, including an allowance for wholesale loans of 2.8% and for consumer loans of 17%.

在消費者投資組合方面，本季提列3.05億美元準備金，較上季增加，反映2.2億美元的準備金增加（reserve build）以及8,500萬美元的淨沖銷（net charge-offs）。本季我們全公司認列淨沖銷2.6億美元，使年化淨沖銷率為0.9%，較上季上升40個基點。季末，我們針對貸款與承諾的信用損失備抵（allowance for credit losses）為44億美元，其中39億美元係針對已撥付貸款。針對已撥付貸款的備抵占比在1,050億美元的應計（accrual）投資組合中上升120個基點至3.7%，其中批發貸款備抵為2.8%，消費者貸款備抵為17%。

Next, let's turn to expenses on Page 12. Our total quarterly operating expenses of $8.4 billion increased versus last year. This includes higher compensation expense in line with revenue growth. Our noncomp expense growth was driven by $120 million increase in brokerage, clearing and exchange fees from higher client activity, $130 million of investments related to technology and new businesses, including Apple Card and PFM and $100 million in CIE expense, which should decline as we harvest these investments, and a roughly $900 million increase in litigation. Our reported year-to-date efficiency ratio was 67%, which was burdened by over 5 percentage points due to litigation. We continue to make progress on our medium-term expense savings initiatives as set forth at Investor Day and expect to realize additional planned reductions in noncompensation expenses through the back half of the year.

接下來請看第12頁的費用。我們本季營運費用總額為84億美元，較去年增加。其中包含與收入成長一致的較高薪酬費用。非薪酬費用的成長主要來自：因客戶活動增加而使經紀、清算與交易所費用增加1.2億美元；與科技及新業務（包括Apple Card與PFM）相關的投資1.3億美元；以及1億美元的CIE費用（隨著我們收割這些投資，該費用應會下降）；另有約9億美元的訴訟費用增加。我們年初至今的效率比率為67%，其中超過5個百分點受到訴訟費用拖累。我們持續推進於投資人日所提出的中期費用節省計畫，並預期在下半年進一步實現已規劃的非薪酬費用削減。

Finally, our reported tax rate was 22% for the year-to-date, reflecting the impact of higher earnings on permanent tax benefits and nondeductible expenses. As noted previously, we expect our tax rate over the next few years to be approximately 21%.

最後，我們年初至今的有效稅率為22%，反映較高獲利對永久性稅務優惠以及不可扣抵費用的影響。如先前所述，我們預期未來幾年的稅率約為21%。

Turning to our capital levels on Slide 13. As I mentioned, Common Tier 1 Equity ratio for the firm was 13.6% at the end of the second quarter under the standardized approach, up 110 basis points sequentially, more than recouping the decline seen in the first quarter. The improvement was driven largely by earnings and RWA management. Our ratio under the advanced approach increased 10 basis points to 12.4% as higher capital was partially offset by higher RWAs due to a full quarter impact of increased market volatility.

接著看第13頁的資本水準。如我所提，在標準法下，本公司第二季末普通股第一類資本比率（CET1）為13.6%，環比上升110個基點，且不僅完全收復第一季的下滑。此改善主要由獲利與風險加權資產（RWA）管理所驅動。在進階法下，我們的比率上升10個基點至12.4%，較高資本部分被較高的RWA所抵銷，原因是市場波動上升的影響反映了完整一季。

On the balance sheet, total assets ended the quarter at $1.1 trillion, up 5% versus last quarter. We maintained strong liquidity levels with our global core liquid assets averaging a record $290 billion with growth largely commensurate with balance sheet expansion amid strong deposit growth. On the liability side, our total deposits increased to $268 billion, up $48 billion versus last quarter, which should enable us to maintain low levels of wholesale financing activity for the balance of the year that had been our intention.

在資產負債表方面，總資產於本季末達到1.1兆美元，較上季增加5%。我們維持強勁的流動性水準，全球核心流動資產平均達到創紀錄的2,900億美元；在存款強勁成長帶動下，其增長幅度大致與資產負債表擴張相符。在負債端，總存款增加至2,680億美元，較上季增加480億美元，這應可使我們在今年剩餘期間維持較低水準的批發融資活動，這也一直是我們的意圖。

In conclusion, our second quarter results reflect the diversification and strength of our client franchise and our ability to provide differentiated advice and market access in a volatile environment. We maintain a prudent risk orientation, mindful of continued uncertainty in the markets and the ongoing health crisis. Our core businesses are performing well, and many of our new initiatives are advancing ahead of plan. We remain confident in our financial position, capital base and liquidity, which set the foundation for our ability to serve our clients through this challenging time.

總結而言，我們第二季的業績反映出客戶業務版圖的多元化與實力，以及我們在波動環境中提供差異化建議與市場進入能力的能力。我們維持審慎的風險取向，並留意市場持續的不確定性與仍在延續的健康危機。我們的核心業務表現良好，許多新計畫的推進也超前進度。我們對自身的財務狀況、資本基礎與流動性仍具信心，這些為我們在這段充滿挑戰的時期服務客戶奠定了基礎。

With that, thank you again for dialing in, and we'll now open up the line for questions.

那麼，再次感謝各位撥入參與，我們現在開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question is from the line of Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

（接線員指示）第一個問題來自Evercore的Glenn Schorr。

So my question on trading is towards the beginning of the year, say, at Investor Day, we were talking about a little more focused on the financing side and felt like clients would pay for that, and intermediation has been more commoditized and volatility was low. And so what do you know, intermediation spikes because the world goes crazy.

我關於交易的問題是：在年初，例如在投資人日，我們談到會更聚焦在融資端，並認為客戶會為此付費，而中介業務則更趨商品化，且波動性偏低。結果可想而知，因為世界變得瘋狂，中介業務反而激增。

So I'm curious of 2 things on this front is -- one is, is the pickup in intermediation just a function of volatility and that will subside as the world calms down? Has anything changed there in terms of pricing, market share and the client need for you? That's part A. And part B is on the financing front, you did show progress. It is growing. But is there anything in the way the CCAR stress testing goes that would frown upon that or would change your intention on continuing to grow the financing side?

所以我對這方面有兩個好奇點：第一，中介業務的回升是否只是波動性所致，等世界平靜下來就會回落？在定價、市占率以及客戶對你們的需求方面，有沒有任何改變？這是A部分。B部分是關於融資端，你們確實展現了進展。它正在成長。但在CCAR壓力測試的運作方式上，是否有任何因素會對此不利，或會改變你們持續擴大融資端的意圖？

Thanks, Glenn. Thanks for the questions. It's David. Thanks for the question. I'm going to start at a high level on trading activity. And I think Stephen will answer the second point around financing and addressing your question as to potential impact from CCAR.

謝謝，Glenn。謝謝你的問題。我是David。謝謝你的提問。我先從交易活動的高層次談起。我想Stephen會回答第二點，也就是融資部分，並回應你關於CCAR可能影響的問題。

There's no question that when we step back and we think strategically about our franchise, we want to be in a position to serve our clients. We've always had great confidence in the broad global footprint that we bring to global markets, that we're in all products all over the world. And as our clients look to intermediate markets, we have a full-service capability to serve them.

毫無疑問，當我們退一步從策略角度思考我們的業務版圖時，我們希望能處於可服務客戶的位置。我們一直對自身在全球市場帶來的廣泛全球布局充滿信心：我們在全球各地涵蓋所有產品。當客戶希望在市場中進行中介時，我們具備全方位服務能力來滿足他們。

There's no question that over the last decade, in a period of very low interest rates and low volatility, that has been a more commoditized service. As you say, in a period where there's enormous change and enormous volatility in markets, we became super busy because our clients are super busy. And the reason you see this pickup in activity is because there was a lot of activity from our clients.

毫無疑問，在過去十年、利率極低且波動性偏低的期間，這更像是一項商品化服務。如你所說，在市場出現巨大變化與高度波動的時期，我們變得非常忙，因為客戶也非常忙。你看到活動回升的原因，是因為客戶端有大量活動。

I don't necessarily view that as permanent. But at the same point, it shows you that whether it's in a more low muted environment where we're well positioned to grow our financing business to serve our clients' needs or in a period where our clients need more access to liquidity, our franchise is very well positioned to serve them. And I think we got a benefit in this quarter from that positioning.

我不一定認為這會是永久性的。但同時，這也顯示無論是在較低、較溫和的環境中（我們很有利於擴大融資業務以滿足客戶需求），或是在客戶需要更多流動性取得的時期，我們的業務版圖都非常有利於服務他們。我認為我們本季也因這樣的定位而受益。

It's obviously very hard to predict given the uncertain nature of the environment, how this would continue. I'd say upfront because I know it will be a question from a number of you that the activity levels that we saw at the end of March and in April were really extraordinary. We've not seen the same level of activity over the course of the last 5 or 6 weeks since the beginning of June. But I would say the activity levels over the last 5 or 6 weeks, when looked at compared to activity levels in 2019 or 2018, still look pretty active. And so we continue to see clients very, very engaged in our markets business.

鑑於環境的不確定性，要預測這將如何延續顯然非常困難。我先說在前面，因為我知道不少人會問：我們在3月底與4月看到的活動水準確實非常異常。自6月初以來的過去5到6週，我們沒有看到同樣水準的活動。但我會說，若將過去5到6週的活動水準與2019年或2018年的活動水準相比，仍然相當活躍。因此，我們仍持續看到客戶在我們的市場業務中非常、非常投入。

I think Stephen should comment on financing, CCAR and how we're thinking about that. And so I'll pass to Stephen.

我想Stephen應該就融資、CCAR以及我們如何看待這些議題發表評論。所以我把時間交給Stephen。

Thanks, David, and thanks, Glenn, for the question. Just to sort of pivot off of David's comments, I would say the important thing to think about in the context of activity is that we were experiencing, as David put it, very elevated volumes at wider bid-offer. And Goldman Sachs sort of went to the market and didn't pull back and away from the market. And in doing that, we picked up market share, which I think will have a lasting effect, notwithstanding where the market goes in terms of its dynamic.

謝謝，David，也謝謝，Glenn，提問。延續David的評論，我會說在活動量的脈絡下，重要的一點是：如David所述，我們當時面對的是在更寬的買賣價差下、非常高的成交量。高盛某種程度上是走向市場，並沒有退縮或遠離市場。在這樣做的過程中，我們提升了市占率；我認為這將產生持久影響，儘管市場動態未來如何變化。

And the other thing I would point out is that in working through those flows, we managed risk really well, meaning we were not with elevated inventory. We saw high velocity turn in our risk in serving the intermediation needs of the clients. And I think that's an important point to make.

另外我想指出的是，在處理這些資金流的過程中，我們把風險管理得非常好，也就是說我們並未持有過高的庫存。在滿足客戶中介需求時，我們的風險部位周轉速度很高。我認為這是很重要的一點。

On the financing side of the business overall, it's important to bear in mind, financing in FICC was up about 71%. We saw considerable strength both in repo and in structured credit. We saw similar activity on the equity financing side as well.

就整體融資業務而言，請記住，FICC的融資約成長了71%。我們在回購（repo）與結構性信用方面都看到相當強勁的表現。在股票融資端也看到類似的活動。

As it relates to SCB and CCAR, I think that the ability of the firm to be agile and take our capital ratio up to 13.6% kind of takes SCB off the table and capital off the table in terms of our ability to present ourselves into the third quarter and beyond as ready and open to play the role we did in the second quarter, which is stand ready to meet the intermediation and trading needs of our clients.

至於SCB與CCAR，我認為公司能夠靈活應對，並將資本比率提高到13.6%，某種程度上使SCB不再是問題，也使資本不再是限制；就我們在第三季及之後展現自身能力而言，我們已準備就緒並願意扮演第二季所扮演的角色，也就是隨時準備滿足客戶的中介與交易需求。

And I think the final comment I'd make just on capital is that we said during Investor Day that we would be agile, meaning we would be agile with the deployment of capital in and around the businesses of the firm. Now at the time, the questions that came to us were more about the ability to pull capital from the securities business, not put to it. In this quarter, we moved capital to it. Returns were extraordinary, super attractive. And we were able to move that around as the kind of flexible organization that we like to think of ourselves as. And we'll continue to do that based on what the market opportunity shows us.

最後我想就資本再補充一點：我們在投資人日曾表示我們會保持靈活，也就是在公司各項業務之間靈活配置資本。當時大家問我們的問題更多是關於能否從證券業務抽回資本，而不是投入資本。而在本季，我們把資本投入到該業務中。報酬非常驚人、極具吸引力。我們也能像我們所認為的那樣，作為一個具彈性的組織來調配資本。我們將根據市場機會所呈現的情況，持續這麼做。

Very helpful. One other question is you mentioned the sale of Global Atlantic. I think that closes in a few quarters. I think you guys should get a lot of respect for growing that from scratch basically. Just curious on how much of that -- what percentage you own, Goldman Sachs own, not the private clients -- Goldman Sachs own, sizing of the gain, how much RWA that frees up? Anything you could help on that. Because it is a good business. It's just really dense RWA, I guess.

非常有幫助。另外一個問題是，你們提到出售Global Atlantic。我想那會在幾個季度後完成。我認為你們從幾乎零開始把它做大，應該獲得很多肯定。我只是好奇：其中你們持有多少——高盛持有的比例（不是私人客戶持有的）——高盛持有的比例是多少？收益的規模如何？能釋放多少RWA（風險加權資產）？任何你們能提供的資訊都可以。因為那確實是一門好生意。只是我猜它的RWA密度真的很高。

No. I mean, Glenn, I think you characterized it exactly well and you hit the point, which was our motivation for the sale itself, which is -- this was a business that began in 2004. It was spun off in the second quarter of '13. And over time, because of its intensity as a financial institution, it becomes more capital intensive. So obviously, our motivation is to free up that capital and deploy it elsewhere around.

不。我的意思是，Glenn，我認為你把它描述得非常到位，也切中了重點，而那正是我們進行這筆出售的動機——也就是：這是一項始於2004年的業務。它在2013年第二季被分拆。而隨著時間推移，由於其作為金融機構的特性與強度，它變得更加資本密集。所以很明顯，我們的動機是釋放這些資本，並將其部署到其他地方。

We were about 25% of the ownership. We're selling out, if not all, then the preponderance of our position. On that sale, we'll release about $2.2 billion of risk-weighted assets and about $400 million of attributed equity.

我們大約持有25%的股權。我們正在出售退出——即便不是全部，也會出售我們持倉中的絕大部分。透過這筆出售，我們將釋放約22億美元的風險加權資產，以及約4億美元的歸屬權益。

I'd also point out that this is part and parcel of kind of a larger move that will take place over the course of the entire year, which is this will be part of about $4 billion of sales off the balance sheet, all part of our broader strategy of looking at lower capital intensity, lower balance sheet intense investments and moving more towards third-party funds.

我也想指出，這是全年將發生的一項更大動作的一部分：這將納入約40億美元的資產負債表外出售，全部都是我們更廣泛策略的一環——尋求資本強度更低、資產負債表占用更低的投資，並更多轉向第三方基金。

And so we will, by the end of the year, reduce that down by about $4 billion. That will relieve us of about $2 billion of capital and about $13 billion of risk-weighted assets, again, Global Atlantic being part of that. I would say, roughly speaking, almost half of that is done with the other half announced and spoken for and expected through the balance of the year.

因此，到今年年底，我們將把這部分降低約40億美元。這將為我們釋放約20億美元的資本，以及約130億美元的風險加權資產，而Global Atlantic也是其中一部分。我會說，粗略來看，這項工作幾乎已完成一半；另一半也已宣布、已有安排，並預期在今年剩餘時間內完成。

Your next question is from the line of Christian Bolu with Autonomous.

下一個問題來自Autonomous的Christian Bolu。

Maybe just following up on the capital question just asked. I guess if I think about your CET1 potential for another 50 basis points of GSIB surcharge, maybe you might want some management buffer on top of what would be a minimum SCB number. Your actual capital requirements could be approaching 15% on the standardized side.

也許只是跟進剛才問到的資本問題。我想如果考慮到你們CET1可能還會因GSIB附加費再增加50個基點，你們或許還希望在最低SCB要求之上保留一些管理緩衝。你們實際的資本要求在標準法口徑下可能會接近15%。

So maybe just help us think about how you think about getting that number back down to more like 13%, 13.5%, which is your long-term target. And then sort of what are the strategic -- or what are the implications for sort of your strategic growth initiatives to the extent you have to bring down capital by that much?

所以能否請你們協助我們理解，你們如何看待把這個數字降回到更接近13%、13.5%（也就是你們的長期目標）？另外，若你們必須把資本降這麼多，對你們的策略性成長計畫會有什麼影響——或其意涵是什麼？

Sure. Thanks, Christian. So as I said in the prepared remarks, we remain committed over the medium term to the range of 13% to 13.5%. I think we're executing at the moment in the moment, meaning, we're in the midst of a pandemic. Obviously, the results around CCAR and the SCB fixing was higher than what we had expected and perhaps reflects a view about where we are at a moment in the market. But I think our strategy, as articulated at Investor Day and frankly speaking, what I described in the path toward reducing down capital intensity of our balance sheet investing are all part and parcel of our ability to take down what is otherwise meant to be represented in the peak to trough in the SCB.

當然。謝謝你，Christian。如同我在事先準備的發言中所說，我們在中期仍致力於13%到13.5%的區間。我認為我們此刻正在執行——也就是說，我們正處於疫情之中。顯然，CCAR結果以及SCB的設定高於我們的預期，這或許反映了市場在某個時點對我們所處位置的看法。但我認為，我們在投資人日所闡述的策略，以及坦白說我所描述的、降低資產負債表投資資本強度的路徑，都是我們能夠降低原本在SCB「高峰到低谷」所呈現幅度的一部分。

And so we're executing now. We are in a position having grown back our capital ratio to be within narrow distance of what's required. But again, that's a moment. I wouldn't fix a permanent capital buffer nor look to amend what I view as our medium- to long-term objective for a profile of the business, which will benefit from key strategic initiatives, which will lower the capital intensity of where we're going. And I think that's the forward path. And so we'll remain quick on our feet as it relates to this. But I just want to give you a sense of what the forward direction is for the firm itself.

因此我們現在正在執行。我們已把資本比率提升回來，距離所需水準只差一小段。但再次強調，那是某個時點的狀況。我不會去設定一個永久性的資本緩衝，也不會打算修改我所認為的中長期目標；我們的業務輪廓將受益於關鍵策略性舉措，這些舉措會降低我們前進方向的資本強度。我認為那就是未來的路徑。因此在這方面我們會保持靈活應變。但我想讓你了解公司未來前進的方向。

Great. And then on cost, very strong core cost control ex litigation in the quarter. I believe you mentioned you'd expect more noncomp benefit in the back half. So maybe help quantify that for us.

很好。接著談成本，本季核心成本控制非常強勁（不含訴訟）。我相信你提到下半年會有更多非薪酬方面的效益。所以能否幫我們量化一下？

And then maybe longer term, you've had a bit of a chance now to get a sense of the post-COVID world. And so how do you think about sort of structural expense trajectory, particularly in light of that sort of $1.3 billion target? Kind of how much upside could that be in that number?

另外，從更長期來看，你們現在也有機會對後COVID世界形成一些判斷。那麼你們如何看待結構性費用的走勢，特別是考量到那個13億美元的目標？在那個數字上，可能有多少上行空間？

Sure, sure. So in noncomp expenses, as you suggest, ex litigation, our noncomp expenses are up about 9%. And a good portion of that increase is attributable to variable expense like BC&E. So this is expense obviously related to the nature and level of activity that we experienced in the business. And the other portion of that increase is largely related to new businesses or larger-sized businesses than where we were a year ago. So think the acquisition of United Capital, expenses associated with it or Apple Card. And so expense control has been on the front of our mind.

當然、當然。就非薪酬費用而言，如你所說，剔除訴訟後，我們的非薪酬費用約增加9%。其中相當一部分增幅來自可變費用，例如BC&E。因此這些費用顯然與我們在業務中所經歷的活動性質與活動水準相關。另一部分增幅則主要與新業務、或相較一年前規模更大的業務有關。例如收購United Capital所帶來的相關費用，或Apple Card。因此，費用控制一直是我們關注的重點。

What I expect to play out in the back half of the year will be, as we've said previously, the benefits from a reduction in double occupancy expense relating to real estate, 2 buildings both in London and in Bangalore that roll off. And so as we've long planned and expected, that will benefit us in terms of the reduction in noncomp expense overall.

我預期今年下半年會發生的是——如我們先前所說——與不動產相關的雙重占用費用（double occupancy expense）下降所帶來的效益：倫敦與班加羅爾各有一棟大樓到期退出。因此，正如我們長期規劃並預期的，這將在整體非薪酬費用降低方面為我們帶來好處。

On a more structural plane and thinking back to the $1.3 billion of expense reduction that we articulated, frankly, I think we come at that number now with greater confidence in that number and frankly, the ability to exceed it over the medium to long term. And part of that is informed by judgments that we are making and analysis that we're undergoing, not just simply about the size of the firm, but where the physical location of the firm can be.

從更結構性的層面來看，回到我們所提出的13億美元費用削減，我坦白說，我們現在對這個數字更有信心，並且在中長期甚至有能力超越它。其中一部分來自我們正在做的判斷與分析，不僅僅是關於公司的規模，也包括公司的實體據點可以設在哪裡。

That is our ability to take aggregation of people or whole businesses and look to move them to different locations either around the world or around the country. And I think the flexibility and the agility that we can take from what we've witnessed in the context of the last several months only feeds our confidence in the ability to do that and therefore, our ability to hit the $1.3 billion target or better over time.

也就是說，我們有能力把人員群聚或整個業務單元加以整合，並考慮把它們搬遷到全球或國內的不同地點。我認為，過去幾個月我們所見證到的情境，讓我們能取得更大的彈性與敏捷性，這只會進一步強化我們對於做到這件事的信心，因此也強化我們隨時間達成13億美元目標、甚至更好的能力。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自Wolfe Research的Steven Chubak。

Wanted to ask just a follow-up on the funding optimization efforts that you guys have talked about before. Now certainly, the deposit growth continues to surprise positively both in terms -- both on the consumer side as well as within transaction banking.

我想就你們之前談過的資金來源最佳化（funding optimization）工作追問一下。目前存款成長持續帶來正向驚喜——不論是在消費者端，還是在交易銀行業務內。

Given that some of the growth appears to be tracking ahead of plan, it sounds like you're quite confident on your expense savings targets from Investor Day. I was hoping you can give us an update on the funding side as well, whether you're still quite confident in that $1 billion savings goal, recognizing that a lot of it's going to be dependent on term structure, shape of the curve, what have you.

鑑於部分成長似乎超前於計畫，而且聽起來你們對投資人日提出的費用節省目標相當有信心。我也希望你們能更新一下資金端的進展：你們是否仍對10億美元的節省目標很有信心？也理解其中很大一部分會取決於期限結構、殖利率曲線形狀等等。

Sure. So on deposits, your observation is right. I mean total deposits for the firm now is $268 billion. That's up $48 billion quarter-on-quarter. Marcus deposits now, again, through the retail channel, are at $92 billion. That was up $20 billion in the second quarter. And we're also seeing deposits come in, though not yet operational, in the transaction banking deposit side. So the growth in the deposit channels overall has been really, really positive.

當然。關於存款，你的觀察是正確的。公司整體存款目前為2,680億美元。較上一季增加480億美元。Marcus存款目前（同樣透過零售通路）為920億美元。第二季增加了200億美元。我們也看到存款流入交易銀行的存款端，雖然尚未正式營運。因此，整體存款通路的成長確實非常、非常正面。

The question of whether we can harvest the precise level of savings of $1 billion that we forecast, rest largely on market sort of developments. What I mean by that is the deposits in retail currently are, from a financial point of view, less valuable in the moment than where they were in the January Investor Day, meaning we've seen Fed funds come down by about 150 basis points, but we haven't experienced corresponding beta on the downside in the retail deposit channel. That will come over time as we develop a more sort of substantive and profound level of engagement with retail customers.

我們是否能夠實現所預測、精準達到10億美元的節省水準，主要取決於市場層面的發展。我的意思是，從財務角度來看，目前零售存款在此刻的價值，較一月投資人日當時更低；也就是說，我們看到聯準會基金利率下調約150個基點，但在零售存款通路上，我們尚未看到相應的下行貝塔。隨著我們與零售客戶建立更具實質性且更深度的互動，這種情況會隨時間推進而逐步出現。

The reliance on rate will become less so, and we'll be able to sort of capture back where we were. But I'd say that much of what we premised our Investor Day presentation on was an assumption about normal markets. We're not in normal markets. The precipitous decline in rates, but not a corresponding decline in deposits, will lessen some of the savings. But I wouldn't sort of put too much of a permanent conclusion to that. Let's wait until we get to a more permanent state of a normal market to sort of judge that.

對利率的依賴將會降低，我們也將能夠在某種程度上把狀態拉回到先前的水準。但我會說，我們在投資人日簡報中所依據的許多前提，是對正常市場的假設。而我們目前並不處於正常市場。利率急遽下滑，但存款沒有相應下滑，將會削弱部分節省效果。不過我不會對此下任何過於永久性的結論。讓我們等到市場回到較為持久的正常狀態後，再來評估判斷。

By the way, by contrast, we do see positive beta in other channels, which play that way, particularly in the high net worth channel. But I think we'll need to sort of assess just the magnitude. By the way, none of that is to take away from the strategic value of this consumer and the overall deposit channel, which is enabling us frankly faster than we thought, to take out the wholesale funding channel. And just by way of reference, we've got about $10 billion of wholesale debt through the balance of this year either maturing or subject to call, and we'll be able to sort of act on that, reducing down the liquidity that we hold all as a consequence of the growth that we've seen in the deposit channel overall.

順帶一提，相較之下，我們確實在其他通路看到正向貝塔，運作方式也符合這個邏輯，尤其是在高淨值通路。但我認為我們仍需要評估其幅度究竟有多大。另外，這些都不會削弱這位消費者客群以及整體存款通路的策略價值；坦白說，這使我們能比原先預期更快地退出批發融資通路。作為參考，今年剩餘期間我們約有100億美元的批發債務到期或可被提前贖回；我們將能據此採取行動，並因整體存款通路的成長而降低我們持有的流動性水位。

Great. Thanks for all that helpful color, Stephen. And maybe just a question for you, David, on the M&A outlook. And one of the concerns we've heard from folks is the challenging M&A backdrop could very well persist just given low levels of CEO confidence and just uncertainty around the election and future tax policy. I was hoping you can give some color as to what you're hearing from the C-suite regarding appetite for M&A and willingness to do deals and maybe what ingredients need to be in place to help reinvigorate deal activity here.

很好。謝謝你提供這些很有幫助的補充說明，Stephen。也許我想再請教你一個問題，David，關於併購（M&A）展望。我們從一些人士那裡聽到的擔憂之一是，具挑戰性的併購環境很可能會持續，原因在於執行長信心偏低，以及對選舉與未來稅制政策的不確定性。我希望你能分享一下，你從高階管理層（C-suite）那裡聽到的，對併購的意願、做交易的意願如何，以及要具備哪些要素才能重新帶動交易活動。

Thanks for that question. And of course, you're right at a high level. And we've always said this. The #1 thing that drives M&A activity is CEO confidence. And there's no question in this environment, given the high level of uncertainty, it's much harder to see those same levels of confidence.

謝謝這個問題。當然，從高層次來看你說得沒錯。而且我們一直都這麼說。驅動併購活動的第一要素是執行長信心。毫無疑問，在這樣高度不確定的環境下，要看到同樣水準的信心要困難得多。

As a result of that, as we highlighted in our opening commentary, M&A volume, M&A -- announced M&A transactions in the second quarter were down 75%. And so as you would expect, we saw a withdrawal of activity. We obviously saw closings on previous activity, but we did not see replenishment in advisory transactions that we would normally see.

因此，正如我們在開場評論中所強調的，第二季併購量、也就是已宣布的併購交易，下降了75%。所以如你所預期，我們看到活動明顯撤退。我們當然看到先前活動的交易完成，但沒有看到通常會出現的顧問案源補充。

And I'd say that in March and April, in particular, and into the first half of May, dialogue with CEOs around forward strategic decision-making was very, very limited. People were in crisis mode, and we're very focused on dealing with the immediacy of the health care crisis and the crisis as it was affecting their businesses.

我會說，特別是在三月與四月，以及延續到五月上半月，與執行長就前瞻性策略決策的對話非常、非常有限。大家都處於危機模式，並且非常專注於處理醫療健康危機的迫切性，以及該危機對其業務造成的影響。

We have seen over the course of the last 6 weeks or so, as economies around the world have started to reopen, a reengagement by clients and CEOs in their forward strategic view. I would say that the dialogue levels right now are particularly robust. I don't believe that we'll see short-term activity. But I would expect, over the course of the next 2 to 4 quarters, those activity levels will build as we have a clearer understanding as to the overall direction of the health care issue that we all face and the overall economic impact that comes out of this.

在過去大約6週的時間裡，隨著全球各地經濟開始重啟，我們看到客戶與執行長重新投入其前瞻性的策略視角。我會說，目前的對話程度特別熱絡。我不認為短期內會看到活動回升。但我預期在接下來2到4個季度，隨著我們對大家所面臨的整體醫療健康議題走向，以及由此帶來的整體經濟影響有更清晰的理解，活動水準將會逐步建立。

And as people have more confidence, they'll be able to move forward. You did see 1 or 2 significant M&A transactions during the course of the last week. I want to be clear, it's not shut down, but I think you need a more certain environment with better insight into the health care situation and the economic situation to see that replenishment normalize. My guess is we'll get that, but it will take a couple of quarters for sure.

當人們更有信心時，就能夠向前推進。你確實在過去一週看到1到2筆重要的併購交易。我想說清楚，並非完全停擺；但我認為，要看到案源補充回到正常，需要更確定的環境，並對醫療健康情勢與經濟情勢有更好的洞見。我猜我們會達到那個狀態，但肯定需要幾個季度的時間。

Your next question is from the line of Mike Carrier with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的Mike Carrier。

First one, Stephen, just on the private equity sales this year, I think you mentioned freeing up about $2 billion of capital. And if I'm not mistaken, I think during the Investor Day, you guys mentioned, I think it was about $4 billion over a period of 3 years. So just curious, is this more accelerated? Has that opportunity set expanded? Just trying to get an understanding of maybe the pace of that kind of strategic shift.

第一個問題，Stephen，關於今年的私募股權出售，我想你提到可釋放約20億美元的資本。如果我沒記錯，在投資人日你們提到的是，我想是三年期間約40億美元。所以我想了解，這是否更為加速？那個機會集合是否擴大了？我想更理解這類策略轉向的節奏可能會是如何。

Yes. So you have the facts right. I mean by the end of the year, as I said, we'll free up about $2 billion, which is 50% of the way toward the objective of $4 billion. I would say that I don't view that $4 billion as being in any way the limit of what we can get done. The more we can advance and increase the cadence on the migration to lower capital density investing, the better we'll be and we'll continue to pursue that.

是的。所以你的事實掌握得沒錯。我的意思是，到今年年底，如我所說，我們將釋放約20億美元，這相當於40億美元目標的50%。我會說，我不認為那40億美元在任何意義上是我們能完成工作的上限。我們越能提前推進、並提高向較低資本密度投資遷移的節奏，我們就會越好，我們也會持續追求這件事。

Obviously, there's 2 sides to this that are both progressing. I mean, on one hand, we're effectuating sales that will relieve us of capital, but we're doing that not leaving ourselves in kind of a canyon of activity, in that, as we said during the prepared remarks, we've really advanced on the raise of our first fund inside of 30 days, having a first close in excess of $6 billion with a target of greater than $10 billion.

顯然，這裡有兩個面向都在推進。一方面，我們在執行出售以釋放資本；但我們這麼做並不是讓自己陷入活動的真空。正如我們在事先準備的講稿中所說，我們在30天內就大幅推進了第一支基金的募資，首輪交割（first close）已超過60億美元，目標是高於100億美元。

And while we set out the objective of doing about $100 billion of raise in and across a range of different funds, I think we all have an expectation that we'll exceed the $20 billion target we thought we would get to this year and look to revise targets across all of this as and when we think it appropriate. But this is good forward progress and we're very determined to see it happen.

此外，雖然我們設定的目標是在各類不同基金中合計募資約1,000億美元，但我想大家都預期，我們將超過今年原先認為可達到的200億美元目標，並會在我們認為適當時，尋求調整這些目標。不過這是很好的前進進展，我們也非常堅定要讓它實現。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a follow-up, just on the trading activity. David, I think you mentioned just higher activity year-over-year even in the past couple of weeks. Just when you think about it, prospect products and client type, obviously, we have ongoing volatility and uncertainty that kind of benefits the industry. But are you seeing any -- I don't know if I want to say, like, structural shifts in terms of Goldman share gains, more use of the electronic platforms, additional client relationships that can maybe be more sustainable once some of this volatility starts to subside?

好的。這很有幫助。接著追問一下，關於交易活動。David，我想你提到即使在過去幾週，活動量也仍較去年同期更高。從產品與客戶類型來看，顯然目前持續的波動與不確定性在某種程度上有利於整個產業。但你是否看到任何——我不確定是否該稱之為——結構性的變化，例如高盛市占率提升、電子平台使用增加、或新增的客戶關係，這些在部分波動開始消退後可能更具可持續性？

Well, I appreciate the question, Michael. There are a number of things going on that we've highlighted. But to summarize or maybe put it in a different context that frames your question, one of the things we've done over the last 2 years is we've thought very, very carefully about our Global Markets franchise.

嗯，Michael，感謝你的提問。我們先前已強調有不少事情正在發生。但若要總結，或用另一個能呼應你問題的脈絡來說，過去兩年我們做的一件事，就是非常、非常審慎地思考我們的全球市場（Global Markets）業務版圖。

The way we wanted to center that franchise, which was really around our clients, we invested in a One GS approach that we've talked about that really tries to improve the client experience for all our clients across that franchise. And we started making an investment in those relationships, improving wallet gaps, improving shares. That's an investment we started 2 years ago that was paying dividends. But I think what you saw, given the increased volatility and the heightened activity on the part of our clients, we saw an acceleration of the benefits of some of that investment during the course of the end of the first quarter and the second quarter.

我們希望讓這個平台的核心真正圍繞客戶，因此我們投入了我們一直談到的「One GS」做法，目的在於提升該平台下所有客戶的整體體驗。我們也開始投資這些客戶關係，縮小錢包份額缺口（wallet gaps）、提升市占份額。這項投資是兩年前開始的，並且正在帶來回報。但我認為你所看到的是，在波動性上升、客戶活動更為活躍的情況下，我們在第一季末到第二季期間，這些投資效益出現了加速。

I think the real share gains there, I'm getting a lot of feedback from clients directly that they really appreciate the way we've invested in the client centricity of that business, the way we've kept the strong investment and really meeting their needs. And I think we've reaped some dividends from that investment.

我認為那裡真正的市占提升，我從客戶那邊直接收到很多回饋，他們非常肯定我們在該業務上以客戶為中心的投入、我們持續維持強度的投資，以及我們確實滿足他們需求的方式。我想我們也因此收穫了這些投資的成果。

Now as that continues, we'll work to protect those share gains. But I'd also highlight, I still think there's upside for us when I look across the 100 largest players in that business and I look at our share across the 100 largest players and where we're top 3 with the 100 largest players. While we've made progress, I think we still have upside in the medium term if we continue to execute on our strategy to take more wallet share given the strength and the breadth of our franchise, and we're going to continue to remain focused on that.

接下來隨著這種趨勢延續，我們會努力守住這些市占增幅。但我也要強調，當我放眼該業務中最大的100家參與者，並觀察我們在這100家中的市占，以及我們在其中有多少是名列前三時，雖然我們已取得進展，但我認為中期仍有上行空間；只要我們持續執行策略，憑藉我們平台的實力與廣度，爭取更多錢包份額（wallet share），我們會持續專注於此。

Your next question is from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

下一題來自Morgan Stanley的Betsy Graseck。

Can you hear me?

你們聽得到我嗎？

Now we can.

現在可以了。

Now we can, Betsy, yes.

現在可以了，Betsy，是的。

Now we can hear you.

現在聽得到你了。

Okay. All right. So just a couple of questions. One, I know that earlier, there was a question around capital and how to utilize capital most efficiently. And I wanted to raise it with regard to how I'm seeing the VaR traject over this past quarter. And I'm wondering, is there an opportunity here given the capital generation that you've been enabled to do and also the RWA compression that we lean into the VaR and keep VaR relatively high. I know in the quarter, it was up significantly Q-on-Q. But how much of that is market related? And how much do you anticipate running at maybe a higher VaR than you have had in the past given your capital flexibility that you have?

好的。好。那我有幾個問題。第一，我知道先前有人問到資本以及如何最有效率地運用資本。我想就我看到你們這一季VaR走勢（trajectory）的情況來延伸這個問題。我在想，考量你們具備的資本生成能力，以及我們看到你們在RWA壓縮（compression）上的著力，是否存在一個機會：把VaR往上靠、並讓VaR維持在相對較高的水準。我知道本季VaR較上季顯著上升。但其中有多少是市場因素造成的？又有多少是你們預期在資本彈性更高的情況下，會把VaR維持在可能高於過去的水準？

So I think the premise of your question, Betsy, sort of strikes at the answer, which is we do have capital flexibility to elevate our VaR using VaR as a basis or as a metric, if you will, for extending into client needs. So both responding to the need for intermediation and positions, deploying capital against it and equally being responsive to the possibility of the market inflating such that VaR increases in the context of inflated notional positions with particular credits.

我認為你問題的前提，Betsy，其實就指向答案：我們確實有資本彈性，可以提高我們的VaR——如果你願意把VaR作為一個基礎或衡量指標——以便延伸並滿足客戶需求。因此，無論是回應中介需求與部位需求、為此配置資本；同時也要對市場可能膨脹、使VaR上升的情況保持敏感，例如在特定信用標的上名目部位（notional positions）膨脹所帶來的VaR上升。

And so I think we feel very comfortable. And part of the reason to take up our capital to sort of adequate levels relative to where we will be required to be, I think, gives us greater confidence to see VaR inflate to the extent that we are in a position to serve our clients in periods of continued uncertainty, as David's been speaking about, in the markets more broadly.

因此我認為我們感到非常安心。而把資本提升到相對充足、並與未來監管要求相匹配的水準，其中一個原因，就是讓我們更有信心：當VaR因市場環境而上升時，只要我們仍處於能服務客戶的位置，就能在市場更廣泛、如David所談到的持續不確定期間，持續支援客戶。

And was there anything this quarter, in particular, that drove VaR -- I guess, last quarter was an $81 million average VaR. And this quarter was $122 million. I know that's total and -- but it was up across the board in the various categories. Maybe you could speak to what you saw in this quarter that drove that VaR up and what you think could be sustained into the second half of the year and what that means for trading revenues? Jamie yesterday said, "You should cut in half your trading revenues for 3Q." But where do you stand on that kind of question?

那這一季是否有什麼特別因素推動VaR上升——我想，上季平均VaR是8,100萬美元。這一季是1.22億美元。我知道那是總額，而且——但各類別都全面上升。也許你可以談談這一季你們看到哪些因素推動VaR上升，以及你認為哪些可能延續到下半年，這對交易收入意味著什麼？Jamie昨天說：「你應該把第三季的交易收入砍半。」但你們對這類問題的看法是什麼？

Well, I don't think any of us are in a position to make such a declarative judgment about the exact direction of trading revenues in through the second half of the year. I think that what we need to do is set ourselves up to be in the service of clients and avail ourselves of the benefit of our shareholders of the opportunities as they present. And I think David characterized it well, which is the second half will be more characterized by uncertainty than any ability to forecast up or down in the market itself. And I think we're well positioned from a liquidity, from a capital and from a risk point of view, to be able to avail ourselves.

嗯，我不認為我們任何人能對下半年交易收入的確切走向做出如此斷言式的判斷。我認為我們需要做的是，讓自己處於能服務客戶的位置，並在機會出現時，為股東把握其帶來的利益。我認為David的描述很到位：下半年更可能以不確定性為特徵，而不是我們能夠預測市場上行或下行。從流動性、資本與風險的角度來看，我們的定位良好，能夠把握機會。

The one thing I would say as we think about risk in markets like this is drawing the distinction between what's liquid and what's not. So when I look at the firm, I think that inventory was managed in the pursuit of intermediation in the trading business exceptionally well. We saw very high velocity as we've long been looking to work with our securities leadership to do in terms of seeing quicker turnover in inventory in support of trading activity. When I look at illiquid, this is an area where, from a risk point of view, we used market opportunities to lower, for example, commitments made in the deals book and took that book down and took risk down and position ourselves now to take on more risk in through the second half of the year to the extent that those opportunities present themselves.

當我們在這樣的市場環境思考風險時，我想說的一點是：要區分哪些是流動性的、哪些不是流動性的。因此當我看整個公司時，我認為在交易業務中，為了中介（intermediation）而持有的庫存（inventory）管理得非常出色。我們看到非常高的周轉速度（velocity）；這也符合我們長期以來與證券業務領導團隊合作、希望在支援交易活動的同時加快庫存周轉的方向。至於非流動性部位，這是一個從風險角度來看我們採取行動的領域：我們利用市場機會降低例如在交易承諾簿（deals book）中的承諾，縮減該簿口、降低風險，並讓我們現在處於一個位置——若下半年出現機會——可以承擔更多風險。

And so I feel quite good and confident about where we stand from a risk position, not limited to what we do in trading activity, which will present itself but equally around other areas of the firm with more structural and kind of less liquid risk to take on board.

因此，從風險部位的角度來看，我對我們目前的狀態感到相當良好且有信心；這不僅限於我們在交易活動中所做的事情——交易機會會自然出現——也包括公司其他領域中更具結構性、且相對不那麼流動的風險承擔。

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一題來自Wells Fargo Securities的Mike Mayo。

Well, my short question is as -- look, you were the #1 adviser. So what are you advising clients to do? And how are you allocating the firm's resources to back that up? And the color behind that is it seems like the elephant in the room is, look, COVID cases are going up. I think death rates followed by about 4 weeks per an expert that we had on a call. And then you have shutdowns, and you're seeing the shutdowns like in California and elsewhere.

我的簡短問題是——你們是排名第一的顧問。那你們在建議客戶做什麼？你們又如何配置公司的資源來支撐這些建議？補充一下背景：看起來房間裡的大象是——COVID病例正在上升。根據我們在電話會議上請到的一位專家，死亡率大約會落後4週。接著你會看到封鎖，而你也正在看到像加州以及其他地方的封鎖。

So there's 2 scenarios here. One is maybe Goldman is needed less that investors and your clients go home and sit on the sidelines, too much risk. Or maybe Goldman Sachs has needed more, as you said, more complex deals, wider bid-offer spreads, elevated volumes, more of a freak-out market where you guys stay open for business. So what are you advising clients? How are you reallocating your resources for that? And what are your thoughts on my questions?

所以這裡有兩種情境。一種是，也許高盛的需求會變少，因為投資人和你們的客戶回家、在場邊觀望，覺得風險太高。另一種是，也許高盛的需求會變多——如你所說——更複雜的交易、更寬的買賣價差（bid-offer spreads）、更高的成交量，一個更像「恐慌」的市場，而你們仍然照常營業。所以你們在建議客戶什麼？你們如何為此重新配置資源？你對我這些問題有什麼看法？

Well, it's a very uncertain environment, Mike. It's a very uncertain environment. And so one of the things we're advising clients is that it's a very uncertain environment, and they have to bring caution and planning to everything they do. I watch TV and read the news like everyone else, and I'm sometimes quite surprised by how certain people are. I continue to be relatively uncertain as to the trajectory of all this.

嗯，Mike，這是一個非常不確定的環境。這是一個非常不確定的環境。因此，我們建議客戶的一件事就是：這是一個非常不確定的環境，他們必須在所做的每一件事上都帶著謹慎與規劃。我跟大家一樣看電視、讀新聞，而我有時候對某些人表現得那麼篤定感到相當驚訝。對於這一切的走向，我仍然相對不確定。

As I've said before, we need to understand the health care risks associated with the virus and get to a point where people feel safe and comfortable. Obviously, a vaccine would be a meaningful step forward with respect to that. While there is no question that there's progress with respect to a whole bunch of companies that are making significant investments in a vaccine and there was positive news again this morning, the exact trajectory of that and how it will be deployed and whether it will work and the effectiveness of all that is still unclear and uncertain. I'm confident we will get through this, but the timing and the impact is relatively uncertain.

正如我之前說過的，我們需要了解與病毒相關的醫療保健風險，並達到讓人們感到安全與安心的程度。顯然，疫苗將是在這方面向前邁出的重要一步。毫無疑問，許多公司在疫苗上投入了大量資金並取得進展，而且今天早上又有正面消息；但其確切進程、將如何部署、是否有效，以及整體效力仍不明朗且不確定。我有信心我們會度過這一關，但時間點與影響仍相對不確定。

We've also, because of the shutdowns economically all around the world, have slowed economic activity. There's no question, as reopenings occurred, we've seen a pickup in that activity. But with an increase in viruses and this uncertainty persisting, I think you'll see a flattening in that economic pickup, and that will slow the progress we make economically from here. So we continue to advise clients to be thoughtful and cautious about that.

此外，由於全球各地的經濟停擺，我們的經濟活動也放緩了。毫無疑問，隨著重新開放的發生，我們看到活動有所回升。但隨著病毒增加且不確定性持續存在，我認為你會看到這波經濟回升趨於平坦化，而這將放慢我們從現在起在經濟上取得的進展。因此，我們仍然建議客戶對此保持審慎與謹慎。

With respect to Goldman Sachs being open and ready and willing to serve our clients, there's no question in the second quarter that our clients were extremely active and we were there to support them. It's unclear how active we'll be in the third quarter, but there will be activity. We'll be open. And at the end of the third quarter, we can kind of look back and say how that unfolded.

就高盛保持開放、隨時準備並願意服務客戶而言，毫無疑問在第二季我們的客戶非常活躍，而我們也在那裡支持他們。第三季我們會有多活躍仍不清楚，但會有活動。我們會保持開放。而在第三季結束時，我們可以回頭看看事情是如何發展的。

But I think we've proven and will continue to prove with great humility that we can be flexible. We can work remotely. We can adapt and we can also help clients adapt. And so this is a very challenging time for everyone. The human toll of this crisis is really very significant. Everyone is focused on their employees. Everyone is focused on their businesses and their stakeholders and their shareholders. And I think that people need to be cautious because the economic repercussions of this will play out over the medium term. And this is not going to be, in my opinion, a quick resolution. And we'll continue to try to be nimble and flexible and help our clients navigate what I think will continue to be a very uncertain period.

但我認為我們已經證明、也將以極大的謙遜繼續證明，我們可以保持彈性。我們可以遠端工作。我們可以適應，也能幫助客戶適應。因此，這對每個人而言都是非常具挑戰性的時期。這場危機造成的人員代價確實非常重大。每個人都在關注自己的員工。每個人都在關注自己的業務、利害關係人以及股東。而我認為人們需要謹慎，因為其經濟後果將在中期逐步顯現。而在我看來，這不會很快就解決。我們將繼續努力保持敏捷與彈性，並幫助客戶度過我認為將持續非常不確定的一段期間。

As a follow-up, just as it relates to capital markets, we're all trying to fill in our models for the next several quarters. What could be the next step in capital markets in terms of repositioning of portfolios due to the election and another government stimulus or reequification continuing or you mentioned mergers where you said volumes are still above the level last year even if coming down? People tend to give you a PE of 1 on your earnings like a quarter such as this, whereas you talk about the annuity with your clients. I'm just trying to figure out kind of what's the next step with capital markets at Goldman Sachs.

作為追問，就資本市場而言，我們都在嘗試把接下來幾季的模型補齊。在投資組合因選舉、另一輪政府刺激、或持續再股權化（reequification），以及你提到的併購（你說即使回落，量仍高於去年）而重新配置方面，資本市場的下一步可能是什麼？人們往往會在像這樣的一個季度，對你的盈餘給出接近 1 倍本益比（PE），但你談的是與客戶之間的年金式（annuity）關係。我只是想弄清楚，高盛在資本市場方面的下一步大概會是什麼。

Well, I think our capital markets businesses have long been a leader, and we've been positioned as a very, very strong leader in M&A advisory activity and equity underwriting activity for decades. We've made a significant investment over the last decade in our debt capital markets business. And I think over the last few years, you've seen the benefits of that investment. And I think we're very well positioned to help our clients meet their capital markets needs.

嗯，我認為我們的資本市場業務長期以來一直是領導者，而且數十年來我們在併購顧問活動與股票承銷活動方面都定位為非常、非常強的領導者。過去十年我們在債務資本市場業務上做了重大投資。而我認為在過去幾年，你已經看到那項投資帶來的效益。我認為我們的定位非常好，能協助客戶滿足其資本市場需求。

Capital markets is a volatile business, yet through the cycle, our capital markets businesses produce significant activity and significant profitability. I don't have a crystal ball as to what's going to happen in the next 6 months. I've had some discussions with people where people talk about some capital markets activity being pulled forward. And there's no question that some refinancing has been pulled forward.

資本市場是一門波動性很高的業務，但穿越景氣循環，我們的資本市場業務仍能產生顯著的活動量與可觀的獲利。我沒有水晶球可以預測未來 6 個月會發生什麼。我和一些人討論過，有人提到部分資本市場活動可能被提前拉到現在。而毫無疑問，有些再融資確實被提前了。

At the same point, there's been a whole bunch of activity that we could have never imagined would have occurred because of the virus and the economic consequences of the shutdown. So when you look at industries like airlines and cruise and travel and leisure, there's been an enormous amount of capital markets activity that was completely unanticipated.

同時，也出現了大量我們原本完全無法想像會發生的活動，這些都是因病毒以及停擺所帶來的經濟後果而引發的。因此，當你看航空、郵輪、旅遊與休閒等產業時，出現了大量完全出乎預期的資本市場活動。

And so as we look forward over the next 6 months, I think there'll be other things based on the macro environment that will either lead to a pickup in some places or a decrease. The one thing I know for sure is our franchise on a global basis is very well positioned to meet our clients' needs as that activity occurs.

因此，展望未來 6 個月，我認為還會有其他事情取決於總體環境，可能在某些領域帶來回升，或在某些領域帶來下降。我唯一可以確定的是，隨著這些活動發生，我們在全球範圍內的特許經營優勢（franchise）非常有利於滿足客戶需求。

Mike, the only thing I would add to David's comment is that -- and this goes back to the initial question you asked, which is, what are we doing with our clients. I mean you can look in the capital markets at the need to apply more creativity to structured solutions for clients than perhaps what we've seen in kind of straightway issuance in more normalized markets.

Mike，我唯一想補充 David 的評論的是——這也回到你一開始問的問題，也就是我們在為客戶做什麼。我的意思是，在資本市場方面，你可以看到，相較於在較為正常化市場中的那種較為直接的發行（straightway issuance），客戶可能更需要我們在結構性解決方案上運用更多創意。

Look at the deal that was completed for United Airlines, which I think brings some interesting ingenuity and structure to what otherwise, in the normal course, would have been a fairly straight way financing. And I think that's the nature and level of engagement with the clients that we're experiencing. And I think it responds a bit to the question of where the capital market is going. There may be more of a need of that, right, in the uncertainty that David's been addressing.

看看為聯合航空（United Airlines）完成的那筆交易，我認為它在原本正常情況下會是相當直接的融資之上，帶來了一些有趣的巧思與結構設計。我認為這就是我們目前與客戶互動的性質與投入程度。而我認為這也在某種程度上回應了資本市場將走向何處的問題。在 David 所談到的不確定性之下，可能會更需要這樣的做法，對吧。

Your next question comes from the line of Brennan Hawken with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Brennan Hawken。

This quarter, you guys made a purchase of Folio, an RIA platform. And I was kind of curious if you can maybe give a little color on that. Was that purely for use by United Capital? Or is there interest in providing third-party custody services in the RIA space, which is a market where we're seeing some consolidation? And there's a lot -- we're going from 3 to 2 strong providers of pure custody. So just curious if that's part of the plan there.

本季你們收購了 Folio，一個 RIA 平台。我有點好奇你是否能提供一些補充說明。那是否純粹是給 United Capital 使用？或者你們是否有興趣在 RIA 領域提供第三方託管（custody）服務？這個市場我們看到一些整併。而且有很多——我們正從 3 家變成 2 家強勢的純託管服務提供者。所以只是好奇這是否也是你們計畫的一部分。

Yes. I think the way to think about it is that in the end, we're looking to continue to build out kind of 3 components of that business. There's obviously our ultra-high net worth business. There's the high net worth business, PFM, which was the United Capital. I think Folio serves to clearly provide added heft to that component of what we're trying to build. The third leg in that stool would obviously be a more mass affluent consumer piece.

是的。我認為可以這樣理解：最終，我們希望持續把該業務的三個組成部分建構完善。顯然有我們的超高淨值業務。也有高淨值業務 PFM，也就是 United Capital。我認為 Folio 明顯為我們要打造的這一部分增添了更強的量能與份量。這張三腳凳的第三條腿，顯然會是更偏向大眾富裕（mass affluent）消費者的部分。

But this -- but the acquisition of Folio was clearly aligned with the strategy begun under United Capital and the provision of third-party custody more broadly. So I think it fits both a generalized strategy, but equally, it is entirely consistent with what we were trying to build out in the high net worth or PFM space, which was the United Capital asset itself.

但這——但收購 Folio 顯然與 United Capital 之下啟動的策略，以及更廣泛提供第三方託管服務的方向一致。所以我認為它既符合一個更一般性的策略，同時也完全符合我們在高淨值或 PFM 領域想要擴建的內容，而那正是 United Capital 這項資產本身。

Okay. And then when we think -- thinking about your comments on the M&A market, interesting and very helpful about the pickup in dialogue in the last 6 weeks. And clearly, there's a lot of uncertainty as you flagged with health care and the economic trajectory. But we also hear about the election uncertainty holding back some component of activity in the U.S. Are you seeing a difference or a significant divergence in the level of dialogue in the United States versus other geographies? And is it the other geographies that's leading to the greater engagement? Or are you seeing it pick up in the U.S. as well? Just a nuance on that.

好的。接著，當我們思考——回到你對併購（M&A）市場的評論，關於過去 6 週對話升溫的觀察很有意思，也非常有幫助。而且顯然，如你所指出的，醫療保健與經濟走勢仍存在很大的不確定性。但我們也聽到，美國大選的不確定性正在抑制部分活動。你是否看到美國與其他地區在對話程度上有差異或明顯分歧？而是否是其他地區帶動了更高的互動？或者你也看到美國同樣在回升？只是想釐清這個細微差別。

Sure, Brennan. And what I would say is I don't see a difference in engagement levels in the U.S. versus, let's say, the rest of the world. Engagement levels were way down. Engagement levels are picking up everywhere. While the election is certainly something that I think will get a lot of attention over the next 5 months, it's still 5 months away. And I think that the health care crisis and the economic crisis as a result of the health care crisis has had a much bigger impact on engagement levels than the election.

當然，Brennan。我想說的是，我沒有看到美國與——比如說——世界其他地區在互動程度上有差異。互動程度曾經大幅下滑。而互動程度正在各地回升。雖然選舉確實是我認為未來 5 個月會受到高度關注的事情，但畢竟還有 5 個月。我認為，醫療危機以及由醫療危機所引發的經濟危機，對互動程度的影響遠大於選舉。

As to how the election starts to impact decision-making, I can see it in some ways being an accelerant and in some ways, potentially creating uncertainty and slowing things down. But I don't think the election cycle is yet playing a big role in client engagement.

至於選舉如何開始影響決策，我可以想像它在某些方面會成為加速器，而在某些方面可能會帶來不確定性並放慢進度。但我不認為選舉週期目前在客戶互動上扮演了很重要的角色。

Your next question is from the line of Devin Ryan with JMP Securities.

下一個問題來自 JMP Securities 的 Devin Ryan。

So I just want to drill a little bit more into the progress in transaction banking and really just trying to think about the scaling in that business, 175 clients today and making some progress on deposits. I guess where do you feel like you are in terms of market share with those clients? So are they kind of test-driving the platform today, but there's still kind of a huge opportunity of maybe more penetration? And then as you think about kind of scaling that platform, kind of what are they using today? Where -- why are they using Goldman Sachs? And what's the opportunity to do more with them?

我想再更深入一點了解交易銀行業務的進展，並且思考這項業務的規模化——目前有 175 位客戶，也在存款方面取得一些進展。我想問的是，對於這些客戶，你們覺得目前的市占率大概在哪個位置？他們現在是否只是試用你們的平台，但其實仍有很大的機會可以提高滲透率？另外，當你們思考平台的規模化時，他們目前在用的是什麼？他們為什麼選擇高盛？以及與他們進一步深化合作的機會是什麼？

Sure. I appreciate the question. And I know there's been a lot of interest in this. There's also -- there have also been a lot of questions about our ability to execute on this.

好的。謝謝你的問題。我知道大家對這件事很感興趣。同時——也有很多人問到我們是否有能力把這件事執行到位。

If you go back strategically, one of the reasons that we were very confident in building this platform is we were a big customer of other institutions. And we saw a need based through our own experience, and we've really put together what we think is a very, very friction-free digital platform that advances the connectivity that clients have to their financial institution and ease of use in very, very meaningful ways.

如果回到策略面，我們之所以非常有信心打造這個平台，其中一個原因是：我們本身就是其他金融機構的大客戶。我們從自身經驗中看到了需求，因此我們整合出一個我們認為非常、非常低摩擦的數位平台，在提升客戶與其金融機構之間的連結性，以及使用便利性方面，都有非常、非常顯著的改善。

The rollout has gone very, very well. I think we've been very cautious and conservative as we talked about it, particularly at Investor Day, around client takeup. I think one of the reasons we felt comfortable that we could build a platform and attract clients to it, if we build a good platform, if we built a good platform, is that we have relationships with all these clients. These relationships are real. They rely on us. We lend to these clients. And if we had an offering that was competitive, we felt it was a reasonable ask of our clients to consider our offering.

推廣進展非常、非常順利。我認為我們在談論這件事時一直非常謹慎且保守，尤其是在投資人日（Investor Day）上，對於客戶採用速度的描述。我們之所以有把握能打造平台並吸引客戶使用——如果我們能做出一個好平台——是因為我們與這些客戶本來就有關係。這些關係是真實存在的。他們依賴我們。我們也對這些客戶放款。因此，只要我們的產品具備競爭力，我們認為請客戶考慮我們的方案是合理的要求。

I think what you've seen in this initial rollout is a lot of clients have considered our offering. And the first and the easiest way to consider it is to leave deposits with us, to onboard, get an account, see the ease of use in doing that and leave deposits with us. And so I think that's accelerated at a much faster pace than we expected.

我想你在這一波初期推廣中看到的是，許多客戶確實考慮了我們的方案。而最先、也最容易的切入方式，就是把存款放在我們這裡：完成上線導入、開立帳戶、體驗操作便利性，並把存款留在我們這裡。因此，我認為這件事的加速速度遠快於我們原先的預期。

We have had a handful of significant clients turn operational, which is obviously where the business becomes much more attractive to us. And I would expect over the course of the medium term, we will grow a very substantial business where these clients become operational on our platform, and that will lead to significant fee-based revenue streams that will help that business grow.

我們已經有少數重要客戶在營運層面正式啟用，這顯然是這項業務對我們而言變得更具吸引力的階段。我預期在中期內，我們會把這項業務做大到相當可觀的規模，讓這些客戶在我們的平台上進入營運狀態，並帶來可觀的以手續費為主的收入來源，進而推動這項業務成長。

But we're in the very early stages. Our market share is tiny. We don't have enormous market share aspirations, but we will grow this business, we believe, nicely over the medium term. And it will make a meaningful -- it will make a reasonable contribution to the overall diversification of Goldman Sachs.

但我們仍處於非常早期的階段。我們的市占率很小。我們並沒有極端龐大的市占率企圖，但我們相信在中期內會把這項業務穩健地做大。而且它將對高盛的整體多元化做出有意義——也就是合理的——貢獻。

Okay. Terrific. Appreciate that. And then just a follow-up question just around the comp ratio. So year-to-date, the accrual is 35% versus 36% last year in the first half. So I'm trying to just kind of parse through how much of that is actually some of those expense savings coming through versus maybe leverage on mix or the fact that revenues were up 20%. Just trying to think about the accrual and how you guys are thinking about that relative to where you were last year?

好的。非常棒。謝謝你的說明。接著補問一題，關於薪酬比率（comp ratio）。今年截至目前，提列比例是 35%，而去年上半年是 36%。我想釐清其中有多少其實是費用節省開始反映出來， versus 可能是收入結構組合帶來的槓桿效應，或是因為營收成長了 20%。想請教你們如何看待這個提列，以及相較於去年你們的思考方式？

Sure. So the way we think about it is that in each and every quarter, we've taken accrual as at that quarter as to what we forecast we need to pay the organization and compensate the organization on a pay-for-performance basis, and it's not more than that. There's no signaling that's embedded in it or otherwise.

好的。我們的看法是：每一季我們都會依照當季的提列，根據我們預估需要支付給組織、並以績效付酬（pay-for-performance）為基礎來補償員工的金額來提列，而且不會多提。其中不包含任何訊號意涵或其他目的。

I think a good deal of the savings is not anticipated in the context of lowering our comp ratio. It's really looking at the balance of expenses that I was addressing to an earlier question in terms of what we can do to bring down some of the noncomp expense and overall bring our operating expenses down but fixing this at 35%. As you may remember, we were at 33.8% last year. And so this is an ongoing quarter-by-quarter assessment of what we need to do, taking a look at the overall performance of the business itself.

我認為相當一部分的節省，並不是以降低薪酬比率為前提來規劃的。它主要是我在前面回答某個問題時提到的費用結構平衡：我們能做些什麼來降低部分非薪酬費用（noncomp expense），並整體降低營運費用，同時把薪酬比率維持在 35%。如你所記得的，我們去年是 33.8%。因此，這是一個逐季進行的評估，檢視我們需要做什麼，同時也會看整體業務本身的表現。

Your next question is from the line of Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global Securities.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Jim Mitchell。

Maybe just a question on the SCB and DFAST. Just trying to -- if we look at trading, as you pointed out, and I agree, you've seen almost a countercyclicality in trading revenues holding up very well in this kind of stress test we just had from COVID, yet losses in trading through DFAST were still pretty high.

我想問一個關於 SCB 和 DFAST 的問題。我只是想——如果我們看交易業務，如你所指出的，而且我也同意，你們看到交易收入幾乎呈現某種逆週期性，在我們剛經歷的這種由 COVID 帶來的壓力測試情境中仍維持得很好；然而在 DFAST 中，交易業務的損失仍然相當高。

So when we think about your SCB going forward, do you think there's any opportunity that -- of sort of the Fed sort of recalculating how they think about trading losses, which could be a benefit to you? Or is simply the view to get the SCB sort of down as to just continue to do what you're doing over time and remix assets? Just trying to see if you think there's a potential for a little benefit from the performance over the last 6 months.

所以當我們思考你們未來的 SCB 時，你認為是否有機會——聯準會可能會重新校準他們對交易損失的計算方式，這可能對你們有利？或者你們的看法只是：要把 SCB 降下來，就是持續長期做你們正在做的事並重新配置資產？我只是想了解，你是否認為過去 6 個月的表現可能帶來一些潛在的好處。

Sure. So I would say that for us, pursuing both passive petition and action is right, meaning there's a do-it-yourself proposition here, which is to drive what we've been talking about, that is lower capital intensity of balance sheet investing, third-party funds and the like. All of that is subject to self-help, and we are minded to aggressively address that so as to bring the intensity down.

好的。我會說，對我們而言，同時採取被動的請願（petition）與主動的行動都是正確的，也就是說，這裡有一個「自己動手」的命題：推動我們一直在談的方向，也就是降低資產負債表投資的資本密集度、發展第三方基金等。這些都屬於可透過自助（self-help）來改善的範疇，而我們也傾向積極處理，以便把資本密集度降下來。

As a related matter, I think, as you would imagine, we have been very active in our engagement and discussions with the Fed about the very observation you're making, which is when we look back historically at our own performance, volatility carries a positive correlation to trading revenue, and it's not uncorrelated. And we have a view about what that means in the context of what the downdraft would be and have been engaged in a very active dialogue with the Fed on that topic.

作為相關事項，我想，正如各位可以想像的，我們一直非常積極地就您所提出的觀察，與聯準會（Fed）進行互動與討論；也就是說，當我們回顧自身過往的表現時，波動性與交易收入呈正相關，而且並非不相關。我們也對此在「下行衝擊」情境下所代表的意涵有自己的看法，並已就此議題與聯準會展開非常積極的對話。

How to handicap the outcome of that is an impossibility. And so it is why, notwithstanding that petition, we continue to engage in self-help and look to remedy this on our own terms.

要去推估其結果幾乎是不可能的。因此，儘管有那項請願，我們仍持續採取自助措施（self-help），並尋求以我們自己的方式來補救這個問題。

Well, it's good to hear you're at least asking. And just maybe one quick follow-up on the advanced CET1. Given the SCB is based on standardized, does -- I mean is there any constraints -- does it matter the advanced CET1? I hate to say it that way, but does it?

至少聽到你們有在提出這個問題是件好事。另外，關於進階法（advanced）CET1，我再快速追問一下。鑑於SCB是以標準法（standardized）為基礎，那麼——我的意思是，有沒有任何限制——進階法CET1重要嗎？我不太想用這種方式問，但它重要嗎？

Well, I think the rating agencies appropriately take a look at the advanced. And remember, this has the CVA component in it that's not represented in standardized. And so you've got to be mindful in managing all of these capital ratios that there's not one but many constituencies to bear in mind. And so we do that and obviously pay attention to all of these ratios in the context of how we carry ourselves.

嗯，我認為信評機構會適當地檢視進階法。而且請記得，進階法包含CVA（信用估值調整）組成部分，這在標準法中並未反映。因此，在管理所有這些資本比率時，你必須留意：需要考量的對象不只一個，而是有多個利害關係方。所以我們會這麼做，並且顯然會在我們自身經營與行事方式的脈絡下，關注所有這些比率。

Your next question is from the line of Brian Kleinhanzl with KBW.

下一個問題來自KBW的Brian Kleinhanzl。

Just one real quick one on credit. I was wondering if you could guys give an update on kind of where you're at with regards to deferrals and delinquencies and then also how you're thinking about reserve builds from here? I mean you built reserve a decent amount this quarter. I mean is this the peak or, I guess, sufficient reserve for go-forward losses?

關於信用我只有一個很快的問題。想請你們更新一下目前在延期（deferrals）與逾期（delinquencies）方面的情況，另外也想了解你們接下來如何看待準備金的提列（reserve builds）？我的意思是，你們本季提列了相當多的準備金。這是高峰了嗎？或者說，這樣的準備金是否足以因應未來的損失？

Sure. So why don't I start on deferrals or forbearance? So it's quite light across our whole portfolio. There's only about 3% of our total credit that is itself subject to forbearance. It's higher in the consumer portfolio. It's been about 10% of the total portfolio that has taken up forbearance. Interestingly, of those that do, about 50% are current on their payments. But bear in mind, that's a very small component of the overall risk profile of the firm at $7 billion total. So over across the whole of it, it's about 3%. It's not significant in the context of how we operate and how we think about the risk overall given how low it is.

好的。那我先從延期或寬限（forbearance）談起。整體而言，在我們整個投資組合中這部分相當輕微。只有約3%的總信用曝險本身處於寬限安排之下。在消費金融投資組合中比例較高。約有10%的該投資組合採用了寬限。有趣的是，在採用寬限的客戶中，約有50%仍按期付款。但請記住，這在公司整體風險輪廓中只占很小一部分，總額約70億美元。因此就整體而言約為3%。鑑於比例很低，這在我們的營運方式以及我們對整體風險的看法中並不重大。

I would say as it relates to the consumer, it is one reason why the coverage ratio that we have through our reserve on the consumer portfolio is as high as it is at 17%. That's not at all a reflection of our current experience in terms of losses. Losses actually are trending lower, notwithstanding the moment in the market. But out of prudence and caution and given how young that portfolio is and given the fact that forbearance can mask risk, we've taken up our provision there.

我會說，就消費金融而言，這也是我們透過準備金在消費金融投資組合上所呈現的覆蓋率（coverage ratio）之所以高達17%的原因之一。這完全不是反映我們目前的實際損失經驗。即便市場處於當下的情況，損失其實仍呈下降趨勢。但出於審慎與保守考量，且鑑於該投資組合仍相當年輕，以及寬限可能掩蓋風險的事實，我們在那部分提高了提存（provision）。

More generally, on your question about provisioning, as you note, we took a provision of $1.6 billion in the quarter. The methodology we use is the same we did in the first, and we'll hold ourselves going forward, which is we look at macroeconomic indicators, including unemployment that sort of correlate well to expectations around default rates and then pull that through to avail ourselves of pool reserves. And we broke that down in the prepared remarks, which amounted to about $700 million of the $1.6 billion that's there, with the balance being impairments and the consumer component of provisions that I spoke about.

更一般地說，關於你提到的提存問題，如你所言，我們本季提列了16億美元的提存。我們使用的方法論與第一季相同，且未來也會持續遵循：我們觀察總體經濟指標，包括失業率等，這些指標與對違約率的預期具有良好相關性，並將其納入模型以運用組合準備金（pool reserves）。我們在事先準備的發言中也做了拆解，其中約7億美元屬於這16億美元的一部分，其餘則為減損（impairments）以及我剛才提到的消費金融提存部分。

It leaves us with a coverage ratio of about 3.7%, which I think is roughly in line with where the market is and accurately reflecting risk that's there. As to what happens in the forward, it will purely be a function of what plays out in the market and whether certain of these macroeconomic indicators worsen or improve from here, and that obviously will flow through our model and dictate the level of provisioning we take.

這使我們的覆蓋率約為3.7%，我認為大致與市場水準一致，並且能準確反映目前存在的風險。至於未來會如何發展，將完全取決於市場的演變，以及這些總體經濟指標是否從現在起惡化或改善；而這顯然會透過我們的模型反映出來，並決定我們提列的提存水準。

At this time, there are no further questions. Please continue with any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。請繼續進行任何結語。

Okay. Since there are no more questions, I'd like to take a moment to thank everyone for joining the call. On behalf of our senior management team, we look forward to speaking with many of you in the coming weeks and months. If there are any additional questions that arise in the meantime, please do not hesitate to reach out to Heather and her team. Otherwise, please stay safe, and we look forward to speaking with you on our third quarter call in October. Thank you.

好的。既然沒有更多問題，我想花點時間感謝各位參與本次電話會議。我代表我們的高階管理團隊，期待在接下來幾週與幾個月內與各位中的許多人進一步交流。若在此期間有任何其他問題產生，請隨時聯繫Heather及其團隊。除此之外，請大家注意安全，我們也期待在10月的第三季電話會議上與各位再度交流。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the Goldman Sachs Second Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，以上即為高盛2020年第二季財報電話會議的全部內容。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。