高盛 (GS) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Dennis, and I will be your conference facilitator today. I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being recorded today, January 15, 2020. Thank you. Ms. Miner, you may begin your conference.

早安。我叫 Dennis，今天將擔任本次電話會議的主持人。我謹代表高盛，歡迎各位參加 2019 年第四季財報電話會議。本次電話會議於今日 2020 年 1 月 15 日錄音。謝謝。Miner 女士，您可以開始了。

Good morning. This is Heather Kennedy Miner, Head of Investor Relations at Goldman Sachs. Welcome to our fourth quarter earnings conference call.

早安。我是 Heather Kennedy Miner，高盛投資人關係主管。歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。

Today we will reference our earnings presentation, which can be found on the Investor Relations page of our website at www.gs.com. No information on forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures appear on the earnings release and presentation. This audiocast is copyrighted material of the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and may not be duplicated, reproduced or rebroadcast without our consent.

今天我們將引用我們的財報簡報，您可在 www.gs.com 我們網站的投資人關係頁面找到。有關前瞻性陳述與非 GAAP 衡量指標的資訊，請參閱財報新聞稿與簡報。本次音訊網播為高盛集團公司（Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.）之著作權資料。未經我們同意，不得複製、重製或再廣播。

Today I'm joined by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, David Solomon; and our Chief Financial Officer, Stephen Scherr. David will start with brief highlights on our financial results; give an update on the broader operating environment, including developments related to 1MDB; and provide context for our upcoming Investor Day. Stephen will then discuss the recent enhancements we've made to our segment financial presentation and cover fourth quarter and full year 2019 results in detail. They'll be happy to take your questions after that.

今天與我一同出席的有本公司董事長兼執行長 David Solomon，以及財務長 Stephen Scherr。David 將先就我們的財務結果做簡要重點說明；更新更廣泛的營運環境（包括與 1MDB 相關的進展）；並為即將到來的投資人日提供背景脈絡。接著 Stephen 將說明我們近期對分部財務揭露所做的強化，並詳細說明第四季與 2019 全年業績。之後他們也很樂意回答各位的問題。

I'll now pass the call over to David. David?

我現在把電話交給 David。David？

Thanks, Heather. And thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. I'm happy to be here with you.

謝謝你，Heather。也謝謝各位今天早上加入我們。很高興能在此與各位交流。

Let me begin on Page 1. In the fourth quarter, net revenues were $10 billion, up 23% versus a year ago, marking our highest fourth quarter since 2007. Net earnings were $1.9 billion, resulting in earnings per share of $4.69 and an ROE of 8.7%. I would note that we took a $1.1 billion litigation charge during the quarter, which burdened EPS and ROE by $2.95 and 5.3%, respectively. Overall, our business performed well and against an improved market environment relative to the challenging backdrop experienced a year ago.

我先從第 1 頁開始。第四季淨營收為 100 億美元，較去年同期成長 23%，創下自 2007 年以來最高的第四季表現。淨利為 19 億美元，每股盈餘為 4.69 美元，股東權益報酬率（ROE）為 8.7%。我也要指出，我們在本季認列了 11 億美元的訴訟費用，分別使每股盈餘與 ROE 受到 2.95 美元與 5.3% 的影響。整體而言，我們的業務表現良好，且相較於一年前所面臨的艱困環境，本季市場環境已有所改善。

For the 2019 full year, we generated firm-wide net revenues of $36.5 billion, nearly matching last year, which was our highest year in 8 years. We reported a return on equity of 10% and a return on tangible equity of 10.6%. Litigation impact to ROE and ROTE was approximately 150 basis points for the year.

就 2019 全年而言，我們全公司淨營收為 365 億美元，幾乎與去年持平；而去年是我們 8 年來表現最佳的一年。我們的股東權益報酬率為 10%，有形股東權益報酬率（ROTE）為 10.6%。訴訟對全年 ROE 與 ROTE 的影響約為 150 個基點。

We had a number of accomplishments in 2019. Our incumbent businesses across the firm performed well, and our new business initiatives progressed as planned, as we navigated a dynamic operating environment over the course of the year. On the revenue side, our global markets business produced stronger results in an environment that improved over the year, driven by strong leadership and a clear focus on client service. We generated solid growth in FICC, driven by strength across our franchise, including rates, commodities and mortgages. We grew firm-wide assets under supervision to record levels. We also delivered strong equity investment performance, which is an important precursor to our alternatives platform expansion plans.

我們在 2019 年達成了多項成果。在全年動態的營運環境中，我們全公司既有業務表現良好，新業務計畫也依照規劃推進。在營收方面，我們的全球市場業務在市場環境逐步改善的一年中交出更強勁的成績，這得益於強而有力的領導與對客戶服務的明確聚焦。我們的固定收益、外匯與商品（FICC）實現穩健成長，動能來自我們特許經營的多個面向，包括利率、大宗商品與房貸。我們將全公司受監督資產規模提升至創新高水準。我們也交出強勁的股權投資績效，這是我們擴大另類投資平台計畫的重要前導指標。

In investment banking, our performance was solid in the context of lower industry yield volumes. We held a commanding lead in our M&A business and maintained our #1 position in equity underwriting. While our operating expenses grew as a function of litigation and investments in our businesses, we actively controlled our costs across both compensation and non-compensation, providing capacity to fund our growth. From this position of strength, we achieved important milestones in 2019 across our key growth opportunities. We continue to institutionalize our One Goldman Sachs operating philosophy, keeping clients at the center of everything we do. We launched the firm's first-ever credit card platform in partnership with Apple and generated over $850 million in net revenues across our broader consumer banking business. We completed the initial build of our digital transaction banking platform and processed over $2 trillion of payments on behalf of the firm. Our platform rollout to third-party clients remains planned for the first half of this year.

在投資銀行業務方面，在產業承銷量較低的背景下，我們的表現依然穩健。我們在併購（M&A）業務保持領先優勢，並維持股票承銷的第 1 名地位。雖然因訴訟與對業務的投資使營運費用增加，但我們在薪酬與非薪酬成本兩方面都積極控管，為成長提供資金動能。憑藉這樣的優勢基礎，我們在 2019 年於關鍵成長機會上達成重要里程碑。我們持續制度化「One Goldman Sachs」的營運理念，將客戶置於我們所做一切的核心。我們與 Apple 合作推出公司史上首個信用卡平台，並在更廣泛的消費金融業務中創造超過 8.5 億美元的淨營收。我們完成數位交易銀行平台的初期建置，並代表公司處理超過 2 兆美元的支付款項。我們仍計畫在今年上半年將該平台推廣至第三方客戶。

We acquired United Capital, bolstering our capabilities to provide a full spectrum of wealth management services to individuals. We realigned our investing businesses into a cohesive unit to support our alternatives growth platform. We enhanced the effectiveness and efficiency of the firm by integrating major portions of our operations and engineerings teams into our businesses. And we strengthened our engineering capabilities with strategic hires of a new Chief Technology Officer and a Co-Chief Information Officer and added talent across the firm.

我們收購了 United Capital，強化我們為個人客戶提供全方位財富管理服務的能力。我們將投資業務重新整合為一個更具凝聚力的單位，以支持我們的另類投資成長平台。我們透過將營運與工程團隊的主要部分整合進各業務部門，提升公司的效能與效率。我們也透過策略性延攬新任技術長（CTO）與共同資訊長（Co-CIO）來強化工程能力，並在全公司增補人才。

Importantly, we made significant investments to expand our client franchise, grow and diversify our revenues and operate more efficiently. Including these investments, our overall performance was solid, even though our investments reduced our returns in 2019. We are confident that they are improving the long-term profitability of Goldman Sachs.

重要的是，我們進行了重大投資，以擴大客戶特許經營、提升並多元化營收來源，並以更高效率營運。納入這些投資後，我們的整體表現仍然穩健，儘管這些投資在 2019 年降低了我們的報酬率。我們有信心，這些投資正在提升高盛的長期獲利能力。

Turning to the operating environment on Page 2. In the fourth quarter, we had solid engagement with our institutional clients and strong growth with our individual clients, notwithstanding corporate client sentiment remained more measured. During the quarter, we saw steadily rising asset prices, improvement in the secured funding markets as the Federal Reserve took steps to bring stability throughout the quarter and particularly over year end. We also saw progress toward Brexit resolution following the U.K. general election and improvements in the U.S.-China trade tensions, including the Phase 1 agreement. These conditions contributed to a supportive market-making backdrop relative to a year ago. Looking forward, our economists continue to expect global GDP growth in excess of 3% over the next 2 years.

接著看第 2 頁的營運環境。第四季我們與機構客戶的互動穩健，與個人客戶的業務也強勁成長，儘管企業客戶情緒仍較為審慎。本季我們看到資產價格穩步上升；隨著聯準會在整個季度、尤其在年底前採取措施以維持穩定，擔保融資市場也有所改善。我們也看到英國大選後朝向解決脫歐的進展，以及美中貿易緊張局勢的改善，包括第一階段協議。相較於一年前，這些條件為做市業務提供了更有利的背景。展望未來，我們的經濟學家仍預期未來兩年全球 GDP 成長將超過 3%。

In the U.S., the fourth quarter provided a backdrop of solid growth, evidenced by a steepening yield curve and continued strong consumer sentiment. Conditions remain supported by the Federal Reserve's 3 mid-cycle rate cuts in 2019. Going forward, we expect U.S. growth to continue to run at about 2%, given robust labor markets, low inflation and strong wage growth.

在美國，第四季的背景是穩健成長，從殖利率曲線趨陡以及消費者信心持續強勁可見一斑。環境仍受到聯準會在 2019 年三次「週期中」降息的支撐。往前看，鑑於強勁的勞動市場、低通膨與薪資成長強勁，我們預期美國經濟成長將持續維持在約 2% 的水準。

In Europe, growth continues to remain relatively low, given manufacturing weakness. However, in China, trade headwinds appear to have moderated, with both monetary and fiscal stimulus supporting growth estimates of nearly 6%. While we continue to monitor economic data and emerging geopolitical risks, including escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, based on what we see today, we remain optimistic that the current constructive environment for economic growth can continue.

在歐洲，由於製造業疲弱，成長仍相對偏低。然而在中國，貿易逆風似乎已趨於緩和，貨幣與財政刺激共同支撐接近 6% 的成長預估。雖然我們持續關注經濟數據與新興地緣政治風險（包括升高的美伊緊張局勢），但就我們目前所見，我們仍樂觀認為當前有利於經濟成長的建設性環境可望延續。

Next I would like to take a moment to discuss the situation with 1MDB. As we mentioned last quarter, we are in ongoing discussions relating to a potential settlement of issues related to 1MDB with relevant authorities across multiple jurisdictions including, most notably, the U.S. and Malaysia. Given the nature of these negotiations, we determined the need to take a litigation charge in the fourth quarter. As I noted earlier, our legal provision in the quarter was $1.1 billion, with the preponderance related to 1MDB. While there can be no assurance of reaching a settlement or the timing if we do, our conversations with authorities are progressing and remain active. We are working hard to bring closure to this matter as quickly as possible. As I've said in the past, we do not believe this matter is representative of our long-standing values. Over the past several years, we've taken the time to be self-critical and reflective to ensure that our culture of integrity, collaboration and escalation only improves from this experience. These efforts will continue.

接下來我想花一點時間討論與 1MDB 相關的情況。如同我們在上一季所提到的，我們正就與 1MDB 相關議題的潛在和解，與多個司法管轄區的相關主管機關持續進行討論，其中最主要的是美國與馬來西亞。鑑於這些談判的性質，我們判定有必要在第四季計提訴訟費用。如我先前所提到，本季我們的法律準備金為 11 億美元，其中大部分與 1MDB 相關。雖然無法保證一定能達成和解，或即使達成也無法保證其時點，但我們與主管機關的對話正在推進且仍然活躍。我們正全力以赴，盡快為此事畫下句點。正如我過去所說，我們不認為此事能代表我們長期以來的價值觀。在過去幾年中，我們花時間進行自我檢討與反思，以確保我們在誠信、協作與升級通報方面的文化能從這次經驗中持續精進。這些努力將會持續。

Lastly, before passing it over to Stephen, I would like to briefly address our upcoming Investor Day, which will be held on Wednesday, January 29. Through a series of presentations from John, Stephen and me and our business and control side leadership, we hope to provide our stakeholders additional insight into the firm's strategic direction. We will provide a detailed review of our strategic priorities by business, including new products and services that we have highlighted to you previously. We will also provide financial targets and goals by which our progress can be measured. We hope you will join us for the day, either in person or via webcast.

最後，在交給 Stephen 之前，我想簡要談一下我們即將舉行的投資人日，活動將於 1 月 29 日（週三）舉行。透過 John、Stephen 與我，以及我們業務端與控制職能領導團隊的一系列簡報，我們希望為利害關係人提供更多對公司策略方向的洞見。我們將按業務別詳細檢視我們的策略重點，包括先前已向各位提及的新產品與服務。我們也將提供可用以衡量我們進展的財務目標與指標。我們希望各位能參與當天活動，無論是親臨現場或透過網路直播。

With that, I will turn it over to Stephen.

接下來，我把時間交給 Stephen。

Thank you, David. Let's turn to Page 3. Before reviewing our financial results, I'd like to spend a moment discussing our new financial disclosure. On January 7, we announced the realignment of our segments, which form the basis of our earnings presentation today. We now report the following 4 businesses: Investment Banking, Global Markets, Asset Management and Consumer & Wealth Management. We believe our revised financial reporting reflects our ongoing commitment to transparency. The segments more closely align to how we now manage the firm, with clear lines of management responsibility and leadership over each segment. The segments, importantly, also reflect how we serve our key clients, including corporations, governments, institutions and individuals. And lastly, the segments provide for greater accountability in the execution of our forward strategy as our initiatives are executed and reported.

謝謝你，David。我們翻到第 3 頁。在檢視我們的財務結果之前，我想先花一點時間談談我們新的財務揭露方式。1 月 7 日，我們宣布了部門的重新調整，這也構成了我們今天盈餘簡報的基礎。我們現在報告以下 4 項業務：投資銀行、全球市場、資產管理，以及消費者與財富管理。我們相信修訂後的財務報導反映了我們對透明度的持續承諾。各部門更貼近我們目前管理公司的方式，並對每個部門建立清楚的管理責任與領導分工。同樣重要的是，這些部門也反映了我們如何服務主要客戶，包括企業、政府、機構與個人。最後，隨著各項倡議被執行並揭露，這些部門也能在推動我們前瞻策略的落實上提供更高的問責性。

Importantly, I would note the key structural change to eliminate the Investing & Lending segment is consistent with our business strategy and will allow you to track our lending and financing activities alongside the relevant businesses, as well as to allow our progress in a more transparent way.

我想特別指出，取消「投資與放款」部門這項關鍵的結構性變更，與我們的業務策略一致，並將使各位能在相關業務之下追蹤我們的放款與融資活動，也能以更透明的方式檢視我們的進展。

Also of note and consistent with our broad commitment to transparency, we elected not to create a corporate segment. This is a different approach than many of our peers who retained costs or capital at the corporate level. We believe our process of allocating all firm-wide costs and capital is a prudent management tool and a more comprehensive way of evaluating the true performance of our businesses.

另外值得一提的是，且與我們對透明度的廣泛承諾一致，我們選擇不設立公司（Corporate）部門。這與許多同業不同；他們會在公司層級保留成本或資本。我們認為，將全公司層級的成本與資本全部分攤，是一項審慎的管理工具，也是一種更全面評估各業務真實績效的方法。

Next, let me itemize several of the more significant elements of our segment changes, which we listed in our recent 8-K filing. As I mentioned, the most significant change was the elimination of Investing & Lending. Now the results of our lending and financing activities are included within each of the 4 segments. For example, corporate lending activity is included in our Investment Banking segment. This encompasses relationship lending, transaction-related financing and broader lending to our corporate clients. Secured or collateralized financing activity on behalf of institutional clients of our securities business is now reflected in FICC and equities financing within our Global Markets segment. Lending related to our alternatives investing businesses, including investments in debt securities and real estate credit, is reflected in the Asset Management segment. And lending to our individual clients across all wealth bands is in the Consumer & Wealth Management segment.

接下來，我將逐項說明我們部門變更中幾個較重要的要素，這些內容已列於我們近期提交的 8-K 文件中。如我所提到，最重大的變更是取消「投資與放款」。現在，我們的放款與融資活動結果將納入這 4 個部門之中。例如，企業放款活動納入我們的投資銀行部門。這包括關係型放款、交易相關融資，以及對企業客戶更廣泛的放款。代表我們證券業務之機構客戶所進行的擔保或抵押融資活動，現在反映在全球市場部門中的 FICC 與股票融資。與我們另類投資業務相關的放款（包括對債務證券與不動產信貸的投資）反映在資產管理部門。而針對各財富層級個人客戶的放款，則歸入消費者與財富管理部門。

Additionally, we now report the firm's on-balance sheet equity, credit and real estate investing activities in our Asset Management segment. This segment houses both GSAM and our merchant banking activities for asset management clients, supporting our third-party alternatives business expansion. Consolidating our on-balance sheet and third-party asset management investing activities is consistent with our forward strategy. To that end, this segment includes management and incentive fees associated with asset management clients across the full spectrum of asset classes from cash to alternatives, and will also include the impact of quarterly valuation changes to balance sheet positions held in public and private equity investments.

此外，我們現在將公司資產負債表內的股票、信貸與不動產投資活動，歸入資產管理部門揭露。該部門同時涵蓋 GSAM 以及我們為資產管理客戶所進行的商人銀行（merchant banking）活動，以支持我們第三方另類投資業務的擴張。將資產負債表內投資活動與第三方資產管理投資活動加以整合，符合我們的前瞻策略。因此，該部門包含資產管理客戶在從現金到另類投資等全範圍資產類別所產生的管理費與績效費，並也將納入我們持有之公開與私募股權投資等資產負債表部位在每季估值變動所帶來的影響。

Another significant change is additional disclosure in our new Consumer & Wealth Management segment, including wealth management fees, incentive fees, private banking and lending revenues as well as consumer banking revenues. This segment houses our long-standing private wealth business as well as our newer consumer offerings. Broadly speaking, and as I noted earlier, the new segments align with the client orientation of the firm. Investment Banking, Global Markets and Asset Management encompass the firm's engagement with corporates, governments and institutions. And Consumer & Wealth Management includes our engagement with individuals.

另一項重大變更，是在新的消費者與財富管理部門中增加揭露內容，包括財富管理費用、績效費、私人銀行與放款收入，以及消費者銀行收入。該部門涵蓋我們長期經營的私人財富業務，以及較新的消費者產品與服務。整體而言，且如我先前所提到，新部門架構與公司以客戶為導向的定位一致。投資銀行、全球市場與資產管理涵蓋公司與企業、政府及機構的互動。而消費者與財富管理則涵蓋我們與個人客戶的互動。

With that as background, let me review the financial results of the firm on the basis of our new segments. Starting on Page 4. Investment Banking produced fourth quarter net revenues of $2.1 billion, up 12% versus the third quarter but down 6% versus a robust fourth quarter last year. For the full year, Investment Banking net revenues were $7.6 billion, our second highest ever, down 7% from a record 2018, reflecting lower industry deal volumes. Fourth quarter financial advisory revenues of $855 million were up 23% sequentially but down 29% versus last year, consistent with lower industry volumes.

在上述背景之下，我將依據新的部門架構檢視公司的財務結果。從第 4 頁開始。投資銀行在第四季的淨營收為 21 億美元，較第三季成長 12%，但較去年表現強勁的第四季下滑 6%。全年而言，投資銀行淨營收為 76 億美元，為我們歷來第二高，較創紀錄的 2018 年下滑 7%，反映產業整體交易量下降。第四季財務顧問收入為 8.55 億美元，較前一季成長 23%，但較去年下滑 29%，與產業量能下降一致。

In 2019, we participated in $1.4 trillion of announced transactions and closed 375 deals for nearly $1.3 trillion of deal volume, contributing to our #1 M&A league table rankings. Looking forward, conditions for continued M&A activity remain solid. Client dialogues are healthy, financing markets are open, and we are seeing active interest across a variety of sectors. We also continue to see strength in our backlog coming into the new year, notwithstanding solid revenue bookings from deal closings in the fourth quarter.

2019 年，我們參與了 1.4 兆美元的已宣布交易，並完成 375 筆交易、交易量接近 1.3 兆美元，促成我們在併購（M&A）排行榜上名列第 1。展望未來，持續的併購活動條件仍然穩健。與客戶的對話維持良好，融資市場保持開放，我們也看到多個產業領域的積極興趣。此外，儘管第四季因交易完成而帶來穩健的收入入帳，我們在進入新年度時仍持續看到待辦案量（backlog）的強勁表現。

Moving to underwriting. Equity underwriting net revenues of $378 million were up 3% versus the third quarter and up 23% versus last year. For the year we ranked #1 globally in equity underwriting, supported by $68 billion of deal volume across more than 375 transactions. During the quarter, where we saw particular strength in our U.S. and European equity businesses, we participated in leadership roles on several of the largest public offerings.

接著看承銷業務。股票承銷淨營收為 3.78 億美元，較第三季成長 3%，較去年成長 23%。全年我們在全球股票承銷排名第 1，受惠於超過 375 筆交易、共 680 億美元的交易量。本季我們在美國與歐洲股票業務表現尤為強勁，並在數個最大規模的公開發行案中擔任主導角色。

Turning to debt underwriting. Net revenues were $599 million, up 14% versus the third quarter and up 37% from a year ago, reflecting higher asset-backed and leveraged finance equity. Our franchise remains well positioned, as evidenced by our #2 high-yield league table ranking.

再來看債務承銷。淨營收為 5.99 億美元，較第三季成長 14%，較去年同期成長 37%，反映資產擔保融資與槓桿融資活動增加。我們的業務平台仍具備良好競爭位置，從我們在高收益債排行榜名列第 2 可見一斑。

Revenues from corporate lending were $232 million. These revenues relate to a net $28 billion funded portfolio of corporate loans now held in investment banking as well as our portfolio of corporate lending commitments. As background, there are 3 components to our corporate lending portfolio: relationship lending to our corporate clients; credit extensions for strategic activity including acquisition financing; and lending to our broadening footprint of corporate clients, where we target attractive returns. Looking forward, given our active level of strategic dialogue, our expanding client footprint and strong corporate relationships, we remain optimistic about the continued level of commercial engagement by our corporate clients, aided by the current backdrop of well-functioning and constructive capital markets.

企業放款收入為2.32億美元。這些收入與目前由投資銀行持有、淨額280億美元的企業貸款已撥款投資組合，以及我們的企業放款承諾投資組合相關。作為背景，我們的企業放款投資組合包含3個組成部分：對企業客戶的關係型放款；用於策略性活動（包括併購融資）的授信；以及對我們不斷擴大的企業客戶版圖提供放款，我們在其中鎖定具吸引力的回報。展望未來，鑑於我們積極的策略性對話程度、持續擴大的客戶版圖以及穩固的企業關係，我們仍對企業客戶持續維持商業互動的水準抱持樂觀，並受惠於目前運作良好且具建設性的資本市場環境。

Moving to Global Markets on Page 5. Net revenues were $3.5 billion in the fourth quarter, up 33% versus last year. Our growth was driven by a better market backdrop in FICC versus the end of last year and strong performance in our Equities businesses. For the full year, Global Markets generated $14.8 billion of net revenues, up 2% versus 2018, driven by stronger FICC and higher equity financing performance. In the fourth quarter, FICC net revenues were $1.8 billion, up 5% sequentially and up 63% year-over-year. Our growth versus last year was driven by higher FICC intermediation revenues, where we saw better performance, as well as higher FICC financing revenues, notably in repo. 4 out of 5 of our FICC market-making businesses posted higher fourth quarter net revenues versus the prior year, reflecting the continued strength of our client-centric model and improved diversification of our business mix.

接著看第5頁的全球市場（Global Markets）。第四季淨收入為35億美元，較去年同期成長33%。我們的成長主要受惠於相較去年底，FICC的市場環境更佳，以及我們股票業務的強勁表現。全年而言，全球市場創造淨收入148億美元，較2018年成長2%，主要由更強勁的FICC以及更高的股票融資表現所帶動。第四季FICC淨收入為18億美元，較前一季成長5%，較去年同期成長63%。相較去年，我們的成長來自更高的FICC中介收入（我們看到更佳表現），以及更高的FICC融資收入，尤其是在附買回（repo）方面。我們5項FICC做市業務中有4項在第四季的淨收入較前一年提高，反映以客戶為中心的模式持續強勁，以及業務組合多元化的改善。

Our rates franchise in the U.S. performed particularly well as we executed on behalf of our clients and navigated the broader market environment effectively. In commodities, our business performed well across the board, driven by significantly stronger performance in oil, natural gas and power and investor products. In mortgages, net revenues rose, aided by strong client activity and performance in agency securities. In currencies, net revenues improved versus last year amid a better geopolitical backdrop despite lower volatility. We saw strong performance and activity around the general election in the U.K. and saw healthy corporate deal-contingent hedging activity in the quarter. Lastly, in credit, we saw better investment-grade performance in the U.S. and EMEA, offset by lower client activity.

我們在美國的利率業務表現尤其出色，因為我們代表客戶執行交易，並有效因應更廣泛的市場環境。在商品方面，我們的業務全面表現良好，主要由原油、天然氣與電力以及投資人產品顯著更強的表現所帶動。在房貸方面，淨收入上升，受惠於強勁的客戶活動以及機構證券（agency securities）的表現。在外匯方面，儘管波動性較低，但在更佳的地緣政治背景下，淨收入較去年改善。我們在英國大選期間看到強勁的表現與活動，並在本季看到健康的、與企業交易成敗相關的避險活動。最後，在信用方面，我們在美國與EMEA的投資級表現較佳，但被較低的客戶活動所抵銷。

As we have discussed previously, we are working to further improve wallet share with each of our clients across both risk intermediation and financing, while investing to expand our capabilities to automate workflows, serve our clients electronically and deliver structured solutions in efficient formats.

如同我們先前討論過的，我們正致力於在風險中介與融資兩方面，進一步提升我們在每位客戶的錢包份額（wallet share），同時投資擴大我們自動化工作流程、以電子化方式服務客戶，並以高效率的形式提供結構性解決方案的能力。

Turning to Equities on Page 6. Net revenues for the fourth quarter were $1.7 billion, down 8% versus the third quarter but up 12% versus a year ago. Equities intermediation net revenues of $979 million rose 9% versus a year ago on stronger cash revenues in the U.S. and Asia and strong performance in low-touch and block trading, partially offset by lower derivatives activity. Equities financing revenues of $732 million were up 17% year-over-year, reflecting improved spreads and higher client balances. Financing activity remains a strategic priority for the business, given it has historically exhibited attractive returns and considerable adjacent benefits to our broader equities franchise, particularly for our growing systematic client base.

接著看第6頁的股票（Equities）。第四季淨收入為17億美元，較第三季下降8%，但較去年同期上升12%。股票中介淨收入為9.79億美元，較去年同期上升9%，主要受惠於美國與亞洲現貨收入更強，以及低接觸（low-touch）與大宗交易（block trading）表現強勁，部分被衍生品活動較弱所抵銷。股票融資收入為7.32億美元，年增17%，反映利差改善與客戶餘額提高。鑑於融資活動歷來展現具吸引力的回報，並為我們更廣泛的股票業務帶來可觀的相鄰效益（adjacent benefits），特別是對我們成長中的系統化客戶群而言，融資活動仍是該業務的策略重點。

Moving to Asset Management on Page 7. Collectively our Asset Management activities produced net revenues of $3 billion in the fourth quarter, up 52% versus last year, driven by stronger equity investment performance. For the full year Asset Management generated net revenues of $9 billion, in line with a strong 2018 as growth in equity investment revenues offset lower incentive fees. Fourth quarter management and other fees related to client assets under supervision totaled $666 million, up 6% versus a year ago, offset by lower incentive fees. Across the Asset Management segment, we managed AUS totaling $1.3 trillion at year end. And we'll cover firm-wide AUS trends in a few moments.

接著看第7頁的資產管理（Asset Management）。整體而言，我們的資產管理活動在第四季產生30億美元的淨收入，較去年同期成長52%，主要由更強的股票投資表現所帶動。全年資產管理創造淨收入90億美元，與強勁的2018年大致持平，因股票投資收入成長抵銷了較低的績效費（incentive fees）。第四季與受監督客戶資產相關的管理及其他費用合計6.66億美元，較去年同期上升6%，但被較低的績效費所抵銷。在資產管理部門，我們於年末管理的AUS合計為1.3兆美元。我們將在稍後說明全公司層級的AUS趨勢。

Next, our equity investments generated record quarterly net revenues in the fourth quarter of $1.9 billion, up significantly versus last year, driven by gains on our public and private investments. Approximately 90% of the gains were event-driven, including sales or marks on public securities as we took advantage of harvesting opportunities. The fourth quarter showed material improvement relative to the third quarter, where we experienced headwinds on certain large equity positions, including Avantor, Tradeweb, WeWork and Uber. During the fourth quarter those positions taken together rebounded, and for the full year produced gains of approximately $400 million. In the quarter, we also exited our position in Uber and reduced our position in Tradeweb. Our public portfolio was $2.4 billion at year end. Where appropriate, we will continue to reduce the size of certain positions in the public portfolio.

接下來，我們的股票投資在第四季創下單季淨收入新高，達19億美元，較去年同期大幅上升，主要由我們公開與私募投資的收益所帶動。約90%的收益為事件驅動（event-driven），包括在我們把握收割（harvesting）機會時，出售或對公開證券進行評價調整（marks）。第四季相較第三季有顯著改善；第三季我們在部分大型股票部位上遭遇逆風，包括Avantor、Tradeweb、WeWork與Uber。在第四季，這些部位合計出現反彈，且全年合計產生約4億美元的收益。本季我們也退出了Uber的持倉，並降低了Tradeweb的持倉。我們的公開投資組合於年末為24億美元。在適當情況下，我們將持續縮減公開投資組合中部分部位的規模。

Net revenues from lending activities in Asset Management were $427 million and primarily relate to loans backed by commercial and residential real estate. Lending revenues include net interest income and mark-to-market gains on debt investments.

資產管理中的放款活動淨收入為4.27億美元，主要與以商用與住宅不動產作為擔保的貸款相關。放款收入包含淨利息收入以及債務投資的按市價計價（mark-to-market）收益。

On Page 8, turning to Consumer & Wealth Management. We produced $1.4 billion of revenues in the fourth quarter, up 8% versus a year ago. That driven by our leading ultra-high net worth business, Ayco and our newly acquired United Capital high net worth business and our consumer banking businesses. For the full year, Consumer & Wealth Management generated net revenues of $5.2 billion, essentially unchanged versus a year ago, as strong consumer banking growth and higher management and other fees offset lower incentive fees. For the quarter, wealth management net revenues included record management and other fees of $967 million, up 17% versus last year, reflecting organic growth in the United Capital acquisition. Assets under supervision rose to $561 billion at year end. We also saw lower incentive fees, while private banking and lending revenues were relatively stable.

在第8頁，接著看消費者與財富管理（Consumer & Wealth Management）。我們第四季創造14億美元收入，較去年同期成長8%。

Consumer banking revenues were $228 million in the fourth quarter, up more than 20% versus last year, reflecting higher net interest income from strong growth in deposits and higher loan balances. Consumer deposits at year end totaled $60 billion across the U.S. and U.K., up nearly 70% versus last year. Funded consumer loan balances totaled approximately $7 billion, of which $5 billion were from Marcus consumer loans and $2 billion from credit card lending. The slowing pace of growth in our Marcus unsecured loan business reflected the anticipated growth in our credit card lending from the launch of Apple Card. While still early -- while still in early stages of growth, our consumer business generated a total of $864 million in revenues for the firm this year, from a standing start just 3 years ago.

消費者銀行第四季收入為2.28億美元，較去年同期成長逾20%，反映存款強勁成長與貸款餘額提高所帶來的更高淨利息收入。年末消費者存款在美國與英國合計為600億美元，較去年同期增加近70%。已撥款的消費者貸款餘額合計約70億美元，其中50億美元來自Marcus消費者貸款，20億美元來自信用卡放款。我們Marcus無擔保貸款業務的成長放緩，反映我們預期在推出Apple Card後，信用卡放款將帶來成長。雖然仍屬早期——仍處於成長初期階段——我們的消費者業務今年為公司合計創造8.64億美元收入，而這項業務在3年前才剛起步。

Now let's turn to Page 9 for our firm-wide assets under supervision. Total client assets for which we earn a management fee, including those in Asset Management and Consumer & Wealth Management, totaled a record $1.9 trillion in the fourth quarter, up $97 billion versus the third quarter and $317 billion versus a year ago. Our 2019 growth was driven by $108 billion of long-term fee-based net inflows from fixed income and equity, including the acquisition of United Capital; $65 billion of liquidity net inflows; and $144 billion of market appreciation.

現在請看第9頁的全公司受監督資產（AUS）。我們可收取管理費的客戶資產總額（包括資產管理與消費者與財富管理中的資產）在第四季達到創紀錄的1.9兆美元，較第三季增加970億美元，較去年同期增加3,170億美元。我們2019年的成長主要由以下因素帶動：固定收益與股票帶來的1,080億美元長期、以費用為基礎的淨流入（包括收購United Capital）；650億美元的流動性淨流入；以及1,440億美元的市場升值。

Switching gears on Page 10, let's address net interest income and our lending portfolio. Total firm-wide NII was $1.1 billion for the fourth quarter, up 6% sequentially and 7% year-over-year, driven by loan growth. This NII measure is more comprehensive than the one we previously highlighted in debt I&L, and most notably now includes all NII from Global Markets activities. For the full year 2019, we reported NII of $4.4 billion, up 16%, driven by deposit and loan growth in Consumer & Wealth Management, increased lending in Investment Banking as well as more lending activity in Global Markets.

接著切換到第10頁，讓我們討論淨利息收入以及我們的放款投資組合。全公司第四季淨利息收入（NII）為11億美元，較前一季增加6%、較去年同期增加7%，主要受貸款成長帶動。此一NII衡量指標比我們先前在債務I&L中強調的更為全面，尤其是現在納入了全球市場（Global Markets）業務的所有NII。2019年全年，我們的NII為44億美元，成長16%，主要由消費者與財富管理（Consumer & Wealth Management）的存款與貸款成長、投資銀行（Investment Banking）放款增加，以及全球市場更多放款活動所帶動。

Next let's review loan growth and credit performance. Our total loan portfolio was approximately $109 billion, up approximately $4 billion sequentially and up $11 billion versus a year ago, with the year-over-year increase encompassing corporate, commercial real estate, wealth management and Apple Card loans.

接下來我們回顧貸款成長與信用表現。我們的總貸款投資組合約為1,090億美元，較前一季增加約40億美元，較一年前增加110億美元；年增主要涵蓋企業、商用不動產、財富管理以及Apple Card貸款。

Our provision for loan losses in the fourth quarter was $336 million, up $45 million versus last quarter, driven primarily by idiosyncratic wholesale impairments and loan growth in our Apple Card portfolio. Provisions related to our Marcus portfolio were modestly lower quarter-over-quarter. Our firm-wide net charge-off ratio increased by 20 basis points sequentially to approximately 70 basis points in the fourth quarter. Our losses remain in line with our expectations given the current point in the cycle. We continue to monitor the portfolio and broader risk factors, and believe our credit exposure remains appropriately sized. We also take note that in 2020, we will experience a full year of loan loss provisioning related to growth in the Apple Card portfolio. This growth in provisions will occur under the new CECL accounting standard, which requires reserves for the expected life of loan. Importantly, the reserve build for a growing credit card portfolio does not reflect actual economic losses. Incremental reserve build will depend on loan growth. But given our expectations for card growth, we expect our 2020 total firm-wide loan loss provision to be higher than in 2019.

第四季我們的貸款損失準備為3.36億美元，較上季增加4,500萬美元，主要由特定（idiosyncratic）的批發業務減損以及Apple Card投資組合的貸款成長所驅動。與Marcus投資組合相關的提存則較前一季小幅下降。全公司淨沖銷率（net charge-off ratio）較前一季上升20個基點，第四季約為70個基點。在目前景氣循環的位置下，我們的損失仍符合預期。我們持續監控投資組合與更廣泛的風險因素，並認為我們的信用曝險規模仍屬適當。我們也注意到，2020年我們將完整反映因Apple Card投資組合成長所帶來的一整年貸款損失提存。這些提存的成長將在新的CECL會計準則下發生，該準則要求就貸款預期存續期間建立準備。重要的是，對於成長中的信用卡投資組合所增加的準備金，並不代表實際經濟損失。增量準備金的建立將取決於貸款成長。但基於我們對卡業務成長的預期，我們預期2020年全公司總貸款損失準備將高於2019年。

With regard to CECL adoption, based on our loan portfolio as of year-end 2019, we expect to record a day 1 increase to our reserves of approximately $825 million in the first quarter, which will not impact our income statement or EPS. This will result in a onetime after-tax reduction to retained earnings of approximately $625 million, which for regulatory capital purposes will be phased in over the prescribed transition period.

關於採用CECL，根據我們截至2019年年底的貸款投資組合，我們預期在第一季於第1日（day 1）將準備金增加約8.25億美元，這不會影響損益表或每股盈餘（EPS）。這將導致留存盈餘一次性稅後減少約6.25億美元；就監理資本而言，將在規定的過渡期間內分階段納入。

Next let's turn to expenses on Page 11. Our total operating expenses of $7.3 billion increased $2.1 billion versus the fourth quarter of last year, reflecting higher compensation and litigation expense in the quarter as well as our continued investment for growth. On compensation, as we have said in the past, our philosophy remains to pay for performance, and we are committed to compensating top talent. Our full year compensation ratio of 33.8% is roughly flat versus 2018, and our compensation expenses were flat year-over-year. Over the course of 2019, we reduced compensation expenses across many of our businesses to improve operating efficiency, and to support incremental compensation expenses related to our growth initiatives, where revenue production is beginning to materialize. As we have said in the past, longer term we view the compensation ratio metric as less relevant to the firm, as we build new scale platform businesses.

接下來看第11頁的費用。我們的總營運費用為73億美元，較去年第四季增加21億美元，反映本季較高的薪酬與訴訟費用，以及我們持續為成長所做的投資。在薪酬方面，如同我們過去所說，我們的理念仍是以績效付酬，並致力於獎酬頂尖人才。我們2019年全年薪酬比率為33.8%，與2018年大致持平，薪酬費用亦與去年持平。在2019年期間，我們在多項業務中降低薪酬費用以提升營運效率，並支應與成長計畫相關的新增薪酬費用，而這些計畫的營收產出正開始顯現。如同我們過去所說，長期而言，隨著我們建立新的具規模的平台型業務，我們認為薪酬比率這項指標對公司而言將較不具相關性。

On non-compensation expense, our cost for the full year 2019 rose 13% versus last year, with litigation expenses and investment spend contributing to that growth. Specifically, litigation expenses accounted for 300 basis points of the percentage increase, while investments in technology and new businesses, including specifically Marcus, Apple Card, transaction banking and United Capital, added another 300 basis points. We also incurred additional expenses from our consolidated investments.

在非薪酬費用方面，我們2019年全年成本較去年上升13%，其中訴訟費用與投資支出是成長的主要貢獻。具體而言，訴訟費用占百分比增幅的300個基點；而對科技與新業務的投資（特別是Marcus、Apple Card、交易銀行（transaction banking）以及United Capital）再增加另外300個基點。我們也因合併投資而產生額外費用。

For the full year, the total pretax impact of our organic business projects, including Marcus, Apple Card and transaction banking, is approximately $700 million, resulting in a drag of roughly 70 basis points on our ROE. At Investor Day, we will talk more about our plans for these businesses to scale over the coming years and how we expect them to be accretive to our returns. For the full year our efficiency ratio was 68%, which includes a 340 basis point impact from litigation expense.

就全年而言，我們有機業務專案（包括Marcus、Apple Card與交易銀行）的稅前總影響約為7億美元，使我們的股東權益報酬率（ROE）約被拖累70個基點。在投資人日（Investor Day）上，我們將進一步說明這些業務在未來幾年的擴張計畫，以及我們預期它們將如何增厚（accretive）我們的報酬。全年效率比率為68%，其中包含訴訟費用帶來的340個基點影響。

Finally on taxes, our reported tax rate was 17% for the fourth quarter and 20% for the year. Our tax rate this quarter reflected the impact of updated guidance from the U.S. Treasury regarding the BEAT tax and incorporates an adjustment to prior quarterly accruals relating to this guidance. Given this updated guidance, we expect our tax rate over the next few years to be approximately 21%.

最後談稅務，我們第四季的申報稅率為17%，全年為20%。本季稅率反映美國財政部就BEAT稅（Base Erosion and Anti-Abuse Tax，稅基侵蝕與反濫用稅）更新指引的影響，並納入與該指引相關、對先前各季應計數的調整。基於此更新指引，我們預期未來幾年的稅率約為21%。

Turning to select balance sheet data on Slide 12. Let's begin with capital. Our Common Equity Tier 1 ratio was 13.3% using the standardized approach, down 30 basis points sequentially, driven by lower shareholders' equity. Our ratio under the advanced approach increased by 30 basis points to 13.7% due to enhancements in loss given default severity modeling that were favorable to the ratio. Our SLR of 6.2% was flat sequentially.

接著看第12頁的部分資產負債表數據。先從資本開始。在標準法下，我們的普通股權第一類資本比率（CET1）為13.3%，較前一季下降30個基點，主要由股東權益下降所致。在進階法下，我們的比率上升30個基點至13.7%，原因是違約損失率（loss given default）嚴重度模型的改進對該比率有利。我們的補充槓桿比率（SLR）為6.2%，與前一季持平。

During the full year 2019, we returned a total of $6.9 billion of capital to common shareholders through both share repurchases and common stock dividends. Our basic share count ended the quarter at another record low of 362 million shares, down over 30% from our peak in 2010. Our book value per share was $219, up 5% versus a year ago.

2019年全年，我們透過庫藏股回購與普通股股利，合計向普通股股東返還69億美元資本。我們的基本股數在本季末降至另一個歷史新低的3.62億股，較2010年的高峰下降逾30%。每股帳面價值為219美元，較一年前上升5%。

As you will recall, our share repurchase authorization for the 2020 CCAR cycle beginning in the third quarter of 2019 was $7 billion or $1.75 billion a quarter. In the third quarter we repurchased only $673 million, carrying forward the unused authorization. In the fourth quarter we repurchased $2.2 billion, utilizing approximately $400 million of the prior quarter's unutilized capacity. Going forward we carry a repurchase authorization of approximately $4.2 billion over the next 6 months. As we make capital return decisions, we will continue to balance our priorities of prudent capital management and the return of capital in excess of what is needed for investment that is shareholder-accretive. As such, the magnitude of our forward repurchases will, as always, depend on our earnings, capital levels and competing investment opportunities.

如各位所記得，我們在2019年第三季開始的2020年CCAR循環之股票回購核准額度為70億美元，亦即每季17.5億美元。第三季我們僅回購6.73億美元，將未使用的核准額度結轉。第四季我們回購22億美元，動用了約4億美元的前一季未使用額度。展望未來，在接下來6個月我們仍有約42億美元的回購核准額度。在做出資本返還決策時，我們將持續在審慎的資本管理與返還超出投資所需、且能增厚股東價值的資本之間取得平衡。因此，我們未來回購的規模一如既往，將取決於我們的獲利、資本水準以及其他競爭性的投資機會。

Now turning to the balance sheet. Total assets ended the year at $993 billion, essentially unchanged versus the third quarter and up 7% versus last year, driven by higher client activity in areas of growth across the firm. On the liability side, our total deposits increased to $190 billion, up $32 billion versus last year, while our total unsecured long-term borrowings were $207 billion, down $17 billion over the same period.

接著看資產負債表。年末總資產為9,930億美元，較第三季基本持平，較去年增加7%，主要由全公司各成長領域的客戶活動增加所帶動。在負債端，總存款增至1,900億美元，較去年增加320億美元；同期間，我們的無擔保長期借款總額為2,070億美元，減少170億美元。

Over the full year, we refinanced approximately $20 billion of parent vanilla debt maturities with approximately $5 billion of issuance, relying more significantly on our growth in retail and other deposits as we continue to diversify our funding sources. This trend toward deposit growth and reduction in unsecured long-term borrowings should continue.

全年而言，我們以約50億美元的發行量，為約200億美元到期的母公司一般（vanilla）債務進行再融資；同時，隨著我們持續多元化資金來源，我們更顯著地依賴零售與其他存款的成長。這種存款成長、以及無擔保長期借款下降的趨勢應會持續。

Before taking questions, I would like to spend a moment to discuss the $5 billion organic growth initiative announced in 2017. That initiative comprised a number of important efforts on which we continue to execute, including client expansion in Investment Banking, wallet share growth in Global Markets, consumer loan and deposit growth, lending and financing deployment and Asset Management growth. As we go forward we will continue to execute on these initiatives, but our focus and communication will instead reflect more ambitious firm-wide performance targets to be introduced on Investor Day. We will not be focused on revenue targets, but rather on returns and efficiency, consistent with our broader long-term strategic plans to drive shareholder value. These targets will also reflect growth opportunities that were not included in the original $5 billion, such as transaction banking and credit cards. We look forward to discussing our new targets in detail at the end of the month.

在開始提問之前，我想花一點時間討論我們於2017年宣布的50億美元有機成長計畫。該計畫包含多項重要工作，我們持續推進執行，包括投資銀行業務的客戶拓展、全球市場業務的錢包份額提升、消費者貸款與存款成長、放款與融資投放，以及資產管理成長。展望未來，我們將持續執行這些計畫，但我們的重點與對外溝通將改為反映在投資者日將推出、更具企圖心的全公司層級績效目標。我們不會聚焦於營收目標，而是聚焦於報酬與效率，這與我們更廣泛的長期策略規劃一致，以推動股東價值。這些目標也將反映原先50億美元計畫未涵蓋的成長機會，例如交易銀行與信用卡。我們期待在本月底詳細討論我們的新目標。

In conclusion, our fourth quarter was strong, leading to full year performance that was in line with the evolving macro environment and reflective of our continued investment in new businesses. We aim to operate more efficiently and drive higher returns in the future and look forward to sharing our medium and long-term objectives at Investor Day in approximately 2 weeks' time.

總結而言，我們第四季表現強勁，使得全年表現與不斷演變的總體環境一致，並反映我們持續投資新業務的成果。我們的目標是在未來以更高效率營運並帶動更高報酬，並期待在約兩週後的投資者日分享我們的中期與長期目標。

With that, thanks again for dialing in, and we'll now open the line for questions.

以上，再次感謝各位撥入參與，接下來我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question is from the line of Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

(接線員指示) 第一個問題來自Evercore的Glenn Schorr。

I don't know what to expect on this one. So doing more lending across the franchise, and it clearly is working and you now break out for us intermediation versus financing in trading or in markets, and I think there's opportunity to do more there. Some of your peers do a lot more on the financing side. So the small question is, are we going to see more at Investor Day in terms of metrics that we can help model and build and evaluate performance on? And that's question one. And then question two on that is, can -- how quickly can you expect those to, a, grow; and b, enhance returns over the next year or 2?

我不太確定這題該期待什麼。所以你們在整個平台上做更多放款，顯然奏效；而且你們現在也把交易或市場業務中的「中介」與「融資」拆分揭露給我們，我認為那裡還有更多機會。你們的一些同業在融資端做得更多。所以第一個小問題是：在投資者日，我們是否會看到更多可用來建模、建立並評估績效的指標？這是第一題。第二題是：你們預期這些指標在未來一到兩年內，a，能多快成長；以及 b，能如何提升報酬？

Sure. Thanks, Glenn. It's Stephen. I'll take your question. I guess on the small question you asked, which is should you expect more disclosure and the frequency of it, I think the answer is, ultimately yes.

好的。謝謝你，Glenn。我是Stephen。我來回答你的問題。我想就你提到的那個小問題，也就是你是否應該期待更多揭露以及揭露頻率，我認為答案最終是：是的。

As it relates to lending broadly around the firm, there are a number of categories of lending that will over time become more material. And as they become more material, we will, both by obligation, but equally by interest, look to provide incremental more information on that lending. I would say consumer is a good example of that, as between unsecured consumer lending and equally what we're doing on the credit card side.

就全公司範圍的放款而言，有若干類別的放款會隨時間推移變得更具重要性。當它們變得更具重要性時，我們將會——既出於義務，也同樣出於意願——提供更多增量資訊來說明這些放款。我會說消費金融是一個很好的例子，包括無擔保消費者放款，以及我們在信用卡端所做的事情。

I think broadly speaking in lending I would say, mindful of the cycle, our clear plan is to grow financing revenues in both FICC and Equities, to answer your direct question. And I would say the type of lending that's going on there is largely in the repo business in FICC. It's in prime and equities. I think from a credit risk point of view, we like and can digest and evaluate that risk, notwithstanding where we sit in the cycle more broadly. And I think metrics in global markets around that lending, again, will continue to grow out.

我想就放款整體而言，我會說，在留意景氣循環的前提下，我們明確的計畫是要在FICC與股票業務兩端提升融資收入，以直接回答你的問題。而我會說，那裡進行的放款類型主要是在FICC的回購（repo）業務。也包括主經紀（prime）與股票相關業務。從信用風險角度來看，我們喜歡且能夠消化、評估這些風險，即便放在更廣泛的景氣循環位置之下亦然。而我認為，全球市場中與該等放款相關的指標也將持續擴展與成長。

Last thing I'll say as it relates to Investor Day, look, we're going to lay out certain targets at the enterprise level. We will be more disclosive about individual businesses. But I think equally important, Investor Day will be the beginning and not the end of a dialogue around this so that the numbers just don't stand alone, and we give you context for rate of growth and how we're managing it.

最後我想就投資者日再補充一點：我們將在企業層級提出若干目標。我們也會對個別業務提供更多揭露。但同樣重要的是，投資者日將是對話的開始而非結束，讓這些數字不會只是孤立存在，而是我們會提供成長速度以及我們如何管理的背景脈絡。

Okay. I appreciate anything there. And then on the expanding the corporate client base, the specific question I have is, is are you fully cut over on processing Goldman's cash management payments? And where are we in terms of dialogue with signing on any clients?

好的。我很感謝你們在這方面提供任何資訊。另外關於擴大企業客戶基礎，我的具體問題是：你們是否已經完全切換到由高盛來處理自身的現金管理支付？以及在與任何客戶簽約導入方面，我們目前的對話進展到哪裡了？

Sure. So on transaction banking, as we have said from its inception, we would be the first customer, and then we would look to bring on clients of the firm. We are the first customer. And I think as was mentioned during the script, we have been processing payments on behalf of the firm across 5 currencies and totaling about $2 trillion in terms of what's getting processed. And so that's going well, and the firm is obviously benefiting from that as in to the extent that we keep as a customer, lower operational deposits on deposit with commercial banks in that regard.

好的。關於交易銀行，如同我們自成立之初所說，我們會先成為第一個客戶，然後再把公司的客戶導入進來。我們確實是第一個客戶。而且如同講稿中提到的，我們已代表公司處理涵蓋5種貨幣的支付，處理總額約2兆美元。因此進展良好；公司也顯然從中受益，因為在我們作為客戶持續使用的情況下，能在商業銀行端保留較低的營運性存款。

We have all along been in dialogue with clients of the firm. First, in the context of getting their sense and input as to what this platform ought to look like, how would we design it so as to meet pain points that they are experiencing. That collaborative engagement has been going on, and we are now engaging these clients as future customers of the firm in the context of transaction banking, with certain of them already putting operational deposits on deposit with the bank. And I think as we've said, in 2020 we'll see that client roster and that participation in the business grow.

我們一直以來都與公司的客戶保持對話。首先是在了解他們的看法與意見：這個平台應該長什麼樣子，我們要如何設計才能解決他們正在經歷的痛點。這種協作式的互動一直在進行；而我們現在也在交易銀行的脈絡下，與這些客戶洽談成為公司未來客戶，其中部分客戶已經把營運性存款存放在本行。而且如同我們所說，2020年我們將看到客戶名單以及其在該業務中的參與度持續成長。

Your next question is from the line of Christian Bolu with Autonomous.

下一個問題來自Autonomous的Christian Bolu。

Firstly, thank you for the new disclosure. It's very helpful. My first question is on credit provisions. It looks like about 1/3 of the credit provisions are -- and the vast majority of sequential quarter increase in provisions came from the Asset Management division. But when I look at sort of the NII disclosure on Page 10, it looks like only 15% of NII comes from Asset Management. So not sure what the mismatch is there. But just if we step back here a little bit, help us understand what exact kind of lending goes on in the Asset Management division, maybe a bit more color on the credit quality there and the overall return profile of that portfolio.

首先，感謝你們新增的揭露。這非常有幫助。我的第一個問題是關於信用提存。看起來大約三分之一的信用提存——而且提存較前一季增加的絕大部分——來自資產管理部門。但當我看第10頁的淨利息收入（NII）揭露時，似乎只有15%的NII來自資產管理。所以不太確定這之間的不匹配原因是什麼。不過如果我們稍微退一步，請協助我們理解資產管理部門究竟進行的是哪一類放款，也請多提供一些該投資組合的信用品質，以及整體報酬輪廓的說明。

Sure. Thanks, Christian, for the question. So let me start with kind of the geography in the segment. So in our Asset Management business sits alternative lending, so think about that as a portion of the old debt I&L. So this is mezz and lending that's made on a principal basis. So what you see reflected in that line is both net interest income that's derived from those assets and equally, volatility in the valuation of those debt assets themselves. So that describes the geography of it.

好的。謝謝你，Christian，提出這個問題。我先從該分部中的「版圖」談起。在我們的資產管理業務中包含另類放款，你可以把它視為舊有債務I&L的一部分。這是夾層（mezz）以及以自營（principal）方式進行的放款。因此你在那一行看到的，既包括由這些資產所產生的淨利息收入，也同樣包括這些債務資產本身估值的波動。這就是其業務版圖的描述。

In terms of what played out over the course of the year in provisioning. So the delta in provisioning for the full year was $390 million. About $100 million of that was found in the Consumer and Wealth Management business, and the vast majority of that was related to provisioning to the growth in Apple Card. I should point out it was not related to any either impairments or off-model, if you will, provisioning related to the balance of the consumer business. It was related to the growth in Apple Card.

至於今年在提存方面的變化。全年提存的變動（delta）為3.90億美元。其中約1億美元出現在消費者與財富管理業務，而其中絕大部分與Apple Card成長所需的提存有關。我應該指出，這並非與消費業務其餘部分的任何減損或你可以說的模型外（off-model）提存有關。它是與Apple Card的成長有關。

The balance of the $390 million, call it $300 million or so, related to impairments on loans across a variety of different segments, Asset Management being one, Investment Banking being the other, and that was around corporate wholesale credit. It involved impairments across a range of different industries, most notably in energy, some in manufacturing, none of which were material in the context of the firm. And so that's the way the provisioning divided up as between impairments and loan loss provisioning for the growth largely in the Apple Card portfolio.

3.9億美元的其餘部分，約可稱為3億美元左右，與多個不同業務分部的貸款減損有關，其中一個是資產管理，另一個是投資銀行，而這主要涉及企業批發信貸。其中包含跨多個不同行業的減損，最顯著的是能源業，製造業也有一些；就本公司整體而言，這些都不具重大性。因此，提列備抵的分配方式，就是在減損與貸款損失準備之間分攤，而後者主要是因 Apple Card 投資組合成長所致。

Okay. Helpful. Maybe stepping back on the balance sheet as a whole, you're kind of sitting close to $1 trillion, which is more or less kind of the highest level since the financial crisis in '08. So just help us understand, just broadly speaking, what's driving growth and sort of the returns you're getting for deploying incremental balance sheet? And then just longer term, how critical is balance sheet growth to driving revenue growth? And how does that sort of factor your longer-term thinking around capital return?

好的。很有幫助。或許退一步從整體資產負債表來看，你們的規模接近1兆美元，這大致上是自2008年金融危機以來的最高水準。所以請協助我們理解，概括而言，是什麼在推動成長，以及你們在動用新增資產負債表規模時所獲得的報酬大概如何？另外從長期來看，資產負債表成長對推動營收成長有多關鍵？以及這又如何納入你們對長期資本回饋的思考？

Yes. So I would say a couple of things. First, as a general matter, our balance sheet growth is itself purely a function of being in the service of client demand. So we're guided entirely by where demand lies for client petitioning of the firm in the context of the flow of our business. So over the course of 2019 we deployed balance sheet, by example, against repo, where there was demand for liquidity. Particularly in the context of the various uncertainty that existed in the repo market, we grew balance sheet so as to stand as an intermediary of liquidity for our clients. So it grows as a function of client demand.

是的。我想我會說幾點。首先，一般而言，我們的資產負債表成長本身完全是為了服務客戶需求的結果。因此，我們完全依循客戶在我們業務流量脈絡下對本公司的需求所在。以2019年為例，我們在附買回（repo）上動用資產負債表，因為市場對流動性有需求。特別是在回購市場存在各種不確定性的情況下，我們擴大資產負債表，以作為客戶的流動性中介。因此，它是隨著客戶需求而成長。

I think as we think about areas of balance sheet growth, we think about it purely in the context of accretive returns for the firm. It's not a revenue-driven proposition. It's really about, can we deploy balance sheet on behalf of clients so as to generate accretive returns to the firm. And that's kind of the true north, if you will. That's where the compass points in terms of how our balance sheet ultimately fluctuates. And candidly, as the CFO, I look at balance sheet much as I do liquidity or any other resource around the firm, as allocating in the pursuit of accretive growth-oriented opportunities and shareholder return for our stakeholders.

我認為，當我們思考資產負債表成長的領域時，我們完全是在能為公司帶來增益性報酬的脈絡下思考。這不是一個以營收為驅動的命題。真正的重點在於：我們能否代表客戶動用資產負債表，從而為公司創造增益性報酬。這可以說是我們的「真北」。就資產負債表最終如何波動而言，指南針就是指向這個方向。坦白說，作為財務長，我看待資產負債表的方式，就像看待流動性或公司內任何其他資源一樣：在追求具增益性的成長機會與為利害關係人創造股東回報的過程中進行配置。

Your next question is from the line of Michael Carrier with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Michael Carrier。

Maybe first, just revenue trends are strong in the quarter. I think you mentioned corporate sentiment is still a bit muted, which I think can take more time. So just curious if you're seeing any improvement on the corporate front. And then on the institutional side, were there any asset purchases during the quarter that had much impact on global markets?

首先，這一季的營收趨勢很強。我想你提到企業端情緒仍稍微偏保守，我認為這可能需要更多時間。所以想請教，你們是否看到企業端有任何改善？另外在機構端，這一季是否有任何資產購買對全球市場造成較大影響？

Sure. Thanks for the question, Michael. There's no question, I think, that the environment during the course of the year improved as the year went on. And while I'd say corporate sentiment has still lagged a little, particularly given some of the macro overlays like U.S.-China trade, et cetera, there's no question in the fourth quarter the environment improved.

當然。謝謝你的問題，Michael。毫無疑問，我認為今年的環境是隨著時間推進而逐步改善的。雖然我會說企業情緒仍稍微落後一些，特別是考量到一些宏觀因素疊加，例如美中貿易等等，但毫無疑問在第四季環境有所改善。

Based on the data information we can see across activity and dialogue with clients, I would say that it's improved in the fourth quarter and the trends that we're seeing early into 2020 are a little bit more positive. And so those would be the usual things that we could look at across the activity set.

根據我們從各項活動數據以及與客戶對話中所看到的資訊，我會說第四季確實有所改善，而我們在2020年初看到的趨勢也更為正向一些。因此，這些就是我們通常會從活動面向所觀察到的事項。

With respect to your second question, there were no material asset purchases that impacted global markets.

至於你的第二個問題，沒有任何對全球市場造成重大影響的資產購買。

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up on the efficiency ratio, I'm sure you guys will get into that in 2 weeks, and there's a lot of noise this quarter. But I think in the past you mentioned, I think 2019 kind of being the height of investments and just want to get an update on -- does that still pertain and we should start to see some improvement on the efficiency ratio as the revenues in some of the newer areas start to gain traction?

好的。接著就效率比率再追問一下，我相信你們兩週後會深入說明，而且這一季有很多雜訊。但我記得你們過去提到，2019年大概是投資高峰期，想請更新一下——這個說法是否仍然適用？隨著一些較新領域的營收開始取得進展，我們是否應該開始看到效率比率有所改善？

Sure. Thanks, Michael. So on the efficiency ratio, on Investor Day, in my presentation I will go through kind of that migration and give you the elements of it. Obviously it feeds both in the context of revenue and expense, and so we'll go through that.

當然。謝謝，Michael。關於效率比率，在投資人日（Investor Day）我的簡報中，我會帶大家走過那個演變過程，並說明其構成要素。顯然它同時受到營收與費用的影響，因此我們會逐一說明。

In terms of your question on the height of investment, I have said and would reiterate here that 2019 is the depth of investment. When you look at investment across 3 of our discrete products, namely Marcus, Apple Card and transaction banking, and equally I've made that reference and again reiterate here, excluding the reserve calculation, which I obviously spoke of in the context of the prepared remarks. So when you look at the investment ex reserve, '19 for those 3 initiatives is the lower point. And I think we'll start to see reduced expenditures relating to that.

至於你問到投資高峰期，我曾說過，並在此重申：2019年是投資最深的一年。當你看我們三個獨立產品的投資，也就是 Marcus、Apple Card 與交易銀行（transaction banking），同樣地我也曾這樣提及，並在此再次重申：需排除準備金計算的影響，我在事先準備的發言中也已談到。因此，若以排除準備金（ex reserve）的角度來看，這三項計畫在2019年的投資是低點。我認為我們將開始看到與此相關的支出下降。

I would say that overall -- and then again, this relates back a bit to your efficiency question, my expectation around noncompensation expense ex litigation is that it would run roughly flat in 2020 relative to where we are. The whole ambition of what we're doing around expenses is trying to create operating leverage and efficiency so as to continue to fund investment around the firm. And that's not investment limited to the 3 products that I spoke about, but equally across technology investment around the infrastructure of the firm and the like. And so we'll start to see that play out. Obviously in the context of flat expenses year-over-year, our hope and expectation is that we'll start to see higher revenue generation from some of these investments, which will play out positively in the context of the efficiency ratio itself.

我會說整體而言——而且這也稍微回到你對效率的問題——我對2020年非薪酬費用（排除訴訟，ex litigation）的預期，是大致與目前水準相比約略持平。我們在費用管理上的整體目標，是希望創造營運槓桿與效率，以便能持續為公司內的投資提供資金。而這些投資不僅限於我提到的三項產品，也同樣包括公司基礎設施相關的科技投資等。因此，我們會開始看到這些逐步展現。顯然，在費用年對年持平的情況下，我們的希望與預期是，部分投資將帶來更高的營收產出，進而在效率比率上呈現正面效果。

Our next question is from the line of Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So I wanted to start off just digging into some of the new segment disclosures, particularly the consumer and wealth side of the business. And clearly what stood out most to us, and you alluded to this earlier in the call, was the pretax margin coming -- running much lower, somewhere close to 10%. Clearly, the new business initiatives, the significant drag that that's had on the margin is quite evident. But I was hoping you could speak to what inning you're in currently, just in terms of the platform build-out and new investment for that strategy specifically. And just through the cycle how we could think about long-term pretax margin potential for that segment as you continue to scale and maybe begin to run a bit closer to some of the peer comps.

我想先從一些新的分部揭露談起，特別是消費者與財富管理這一側的業務。很明顯最引起我們注意、而你也在先前電話會議中提到的是，稅前利潤率明顯偏低，大約接近10%。顯然，新業務計畫對利潤率造成的顯著拖累非常明顯。但我希望你能談談，就平台建置與該策略的新增投資而言，你們目前大概處於哪一個階段（第幾局）？另外，從景氣循環的角度，我們應如何看待該分部在持續擴張規模、並可能開始更接近同業可比水準之後的長期稅前利潤率潛力？

Sure. So let me answer the question generally. We have disclosed, obviously, information around expenses and pretax. Our intention at Investor Day is to go to pretax margin and returns across the whole of the business. And then in the context of that we'll provide you in Investor Day, our intent is to continue to do that on quarterly earnings calls like this. So you should have an expectation that we'll continue along that path.

當然。我先用較一般性的方式回答。我們已經揭露了，顯然，關於費用與稅前的資訊。我們在投資人日的意圖，是針對整體業務提供稅前利潤率與報酬的說明。並且在此脈絡下，我們會在投資人日提供相關內容；我們的意圖是之後也會在像這樣的季度財報電話會議中持續提供。因此，你可以預期我們會沿著這條路徑持續進行。

I'd also say, and I'll reflect on this here generally, but more specifically in our Investor Day, our intent is not to leave you in the dark as to the Consumer and Wealth Management segment in terms of overall margins, meaning we want to give you a sense of where the wealth business sits; that is, the PWM business, which obviously demonstrates a much higher margin than what the segment reveals, with the segment being in effect burdened by the continued growth and investment spend in the consumer space. So we will separate that out.

我也想說，而且我會在這裡先做整體性的回應，但在我們的投資人日上會更具體地說明：我們的意圖不是讓各位對消費者與財富管理（Consumer and Wealth Management）事業群在整體利潤率方面一無所知。也就是說，我們希望讓各位了解財富業務所處的位置；也就是 PWM 業務，這部分顯然展現出遠高於該事業群所呈現的利潤率，而該事業群的利潤率實際上受到消費端持續成長與投資支出增加的拖累。因此我們會把它拆分出來。

My guidance to you in terms of expectation is that the wealth management segment or subsegment within that performs at a much more market-level margin than the way in which the segment otherwise illustrates. But again, we will decompose that for you with context as we move forward.

就你們的預期而言，我給的指引是：財富管理這個事業群，或其中的子事業群，其表現的利潤率會更接近市場水準，而不是該事業群整體呈現出來的樣子。但同樣地，隨著我們往前推進，我們會在提供背景脈絡的情況下為各位加以拆解說明。

No, that's great to hear, Stephen. And just one follow-up for me as it relates to the provision. I appreciate the detail you provided in an earlier question, the guidance calling for higher provision in 2020, I don't think that comes as a big surprise to anyone. But just given expectations for a healthy step-up in provision simply due to CECL implementation and some consumer loan seasoning, I was hoping you can maybe just help us frame a bit better what's a reasonable provision level or run rate expectation if there's no change in the macro, but we simply have to reflect the impact of CECL with an assumption that you'll see relatively steady growth in consumer loans.

不，這很高興聽到，Stephen。另外我還有一個關於備抵（provision）的追問。我很感謝你在先前問題中提供的細節；指引提到 2020 年備抵會更高，我想這對任何人來說都不算太意外。但考量到大家預期備抵會因 CECL 上路以及部分消費者貸款的存續期（seasoning）而健康地上升，我希望你能幫我們更好地框定：如果總體環境沒有變化，但我們只是需要反映 CECL 的影響，並假設消費者貸款維持相對穩定成長，那麼合理的備抵水準或常態化（run rate）的預期大概會是多少？

Yes. Look, I think generally speaking, our own budget is in the realm of, call it $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion in terms of a broader budget. I would say a lot of that reflects continued growth in the Apple Card portfolio as well as lending more generally. But again, as you grow from a negligible level at the inception through to what we hold, both in terms of roughly $1.9 billion of where we are and what that growth will be in the ensuing year, obviously that provision through 2020 will be exaggerated. You'll see it that way, but that's just part of the overall growth.

是的。你看，一般來說，我們自己的預算大概落在 11 億到 13 億美元的範圍內，作為較廣義的預算口徑。我會說其中很大一部分反映了 Apple Card 投資組合的持續成長，以及更廣泛的放款成長。但同樣地，當你從起初幾乎可忽略的水準成長到我們目前持有的規模——就目前大約 19 億美元的水位，以及接下來一年將會有的成長——顯然 2020 年的備抵會被放大。你們會看到它呈現那樣的樣貌，但那只是整體成長的一部分。

As an aside, the provisioning growth related to Apple Card, again more from a standing start, is itself burdened by CECL relative to where provisioning would have been. So it's marginally more exaggerated in the context of the life of loan component to CECL and the like. Now what I offer you by way of budget is just that. It obviously will depend on the pace of loan growth broadly, the pace of loan growth in Apple Card, which we are going to calibrate based purely on risk parameters and our own judgment about the tone and nature of the market in which we're operating.

順帶一提，與 Apple Card 相關的備抵成長，同樣是從幾乎零的起點開始，因此相較於原本的備抵水準，會因 CECL 而承受更大的影響。所以在 CECL 的「存續期間損失」（life of loan）等構成之下，它在某種程度上會顯得更被放大。而我以預算的方式提供給你們的就是這些。它顯然會取決於整體貸款成長的速度、Apple Card 的貸款成長速度；而我們會純粹依據風險參數，以及我們對所處市場環境的氛圍與性質的判斷來校準。

Your next question comes from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自 Morgan Stanley 的 Betsy Graseck。

I have -- it's a little bit of a philosophical question around lending and how you're thinking about your various loan books. And the question is kind of coming from the perspective that I'm thinking you're -- you've been working with a balance sheet that's a high-velocity balance sheet. And I'm wondering if you perceive your various loan books as moving more from a velocity balance sheet towards a storage balance sheet. Is there anything in there? I'm thinking about, do you hedge some of your loan books now? Are there some that you're going to continue to hedge, some that you would not consider hedging? Does it impact how we think about the capital and the capital allocation to loans? I'm wondering if that resonates at all with how you're thinking about the loan books in the various segments.

我有一個——有點偏哲學性的問題，關於放款以及你們如何看待各類貸款組合。這個問題的出發點是：我在想你們一直在運用一個高周轉（high-velocity）的資產負債表。我想知道你們是否認為各類貸款組合正在從「周轉型資產負債表」轉向「儲存型資產負債表」（storage balance sheet）。這裡面有這樣的含意嗎？我在想，例如你們現在會對某些貸款組合做避險嗎？有哪些你們會持續避險、有哪些你們不會考慮避險？這是否會影響我們對資本以及對貸款的資本配置方式的看法？我想知道這是否與你們在各事業群中思考貸款組合的方式有所呼應。

Sure. Yes. No, no, no. It's a very good question. I'd say the following. First, there's nothing about what we're doing in growing our loan book, particularly around consumer, for example, that is, in effect, substitution for business that we'll continue to do of a capital markets orientation around lending. So for example -- and we look at the 2 consistent with trends that each market shows and kind of risk parameters and levers that we hold to manage risk.

當然。是的。不，不，不。這是個非常好的問題。我會這樣說。首先，我們在擴大貸款組合、特別是以消費者為例的成長，並不是在替代我們仍會持續進行、偏向資本市場導向的放款業務。所以例如——我們會以兩者來看：各市場所呈現的趨勢一致性，以及我們用來管理風險的風險參數與槓桿。

I'll give you an example. If you think about corporate lending, so for example lending we make by way of acquisition financing that we provide to our clients, what I look at in the context of our deal book has a lot to do with size, but equally with velocity turn. So right now our deal book turns at inside of 3 months. That's an important metric to think about as we manage corporate lending and capital markets-related lending that's going on. That's less of a relevant consideration, if you will, in the context of growth in our consumer loan book or what we do around Apple Card as a component of that. There, we're quite careful to consider what we do about provisioning, how we think about the qualitative overlay to the size of our provisioning as we look at a maturation of that portfolio, start to look at more on-premise data as it relates to our consumer portfolio as opposed to third-party metrics. And so we think about these 2 things in some sense differently in terms of what you apply by way of the rigor and metric and overlay in managing that risk. But equally, we obviously will look at the totality of lending that's going on and the rate of growth as it relates to the overall balance sheet and the firm itself. So I hope that's helpful in sort of our broad philosophical approach to lending.

我舉個例子。如果你想到企業放款，例如我們以併購融資的形式提供給客戶的放款，我在看我們的交易簿（deal book）時，除了規模之外，同樣也非常看重周轉速度。目前我們的交易簿周轉期在 3 個月以內。這是在我們管理企業放款以及與資本市場相關的放款時，一個很重要的指標。但在我們消費者貸款組合的成長，或我們在 Apple Card（作為其中一部分）所做的事情上，這就不是那麼相關的考量。在那裡，我們會非常謹慎地考量備抵提列、以及在投資組合逐步成熟時，我們如何看待備抵規模上的質化調整（qualitative overlay）；並且開始更多地使用與我們消費者投資組合相關的自有資料（on-premise data），而不是第三方指標。因此，在管理風險時，這兩者在某種意義上我們會用不同的嚴謹度、指標與質化調整方式來看待。但同樣地，我們顯然也會從整體角度來看所有正在進行的放款，以及其相對於整體資產負債表與公司本身的成長速度。希望這能對我們在放款上的整體哲學性思維有所幫助。

And does it then come back towards capital and what kind of capital ratios you need? What I'm hearing is, on the consumer side maybe more capital consumptive, but obviously there's an ROA associated with that, that should pay for it. Whereas on the banking side, that velocity suggests that it might not be as capital-consumptive as the commercial whole loan in a different organization.

那麼這是否又回到資本，以及你們需要什麼樣的資本比率？我聽到的是：在消費者端可能更耗用資本，但顯然也有與之相對應的資產報酬率（ROA），應該足以支撐。而在銀行端，這種周轉速度意味著它可能不像另一家機構的商業整筆貸款（commercial whole loan）那樣耗用資本。

Yes. Well, the way I'd answer that question, again to sort of stick to sort of a broad view of it all from the firm, we're driving and growing new businesses at the firm that inevitably will carry with them more durable and recurring fee revenue. They therefore will, by definition, carry with it less stress loss in the context of it. They will, in some sense, be less capital-dense than where they've been. And so we're going to evaluate risk return against the capital that's required against each individual business and render judgments there as to what those returns look like on a capital-adjusted basis, where we want to deploy capital, where we don't. I guess what I'm suggesting to you, it's a much more dynamic process than not. And -- but overall, it fits within the component of growing and building businesses that have less stress draw and, therefore, the potential for lower density from a capital perspective.

是的。嗯，我回答這個問題的方式——同樣地，從公司整體的廣角來看——是：我們正在推動並發展公司內的新業務，而這些業務不可避免地會帶來更具持久性與經常性的手續費收入。因此，按定義來說，在壓力情境下的損失（stress loss）會更低。在某種意義上，它們的資本密度會比過去更低。所以我們會針對每一項業務，評估其風險報酬相對於所需資本，並據此做出判斷：在資本調整後（capital-adjusted）的基礎上，這些報酬看起來如何、我們想把資本投放在哪裡、以及不想投放在哪裡。我想我在向你表達的是：這是一個相當動態的流程，而不是靜態的。而且——整體而言，這符合我們成長與打造那些在壓力下消耗較少、因此從資本角度看可能具有較低密度的業務這一方向。

Your next question is from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Mike Mayo。

Steve, I think you said noncomp should be flat in 2020. But in 2019, almost every noncomp category went higher. So was that simply because of just why you said it is the question. What's changing?

Steve，我想你說過 2020 年非利息支出（noncomp）應該會持平。但在 2019 年，幾乎每一個非利息支出類別都上升了。所以這只是因為你剛剛所說的原因嗎？這是我的問題。有什麼改變了？

Yes. So Mike, maybe the way to answer that is let me decompose a little bit of the growth year-over-year in noncomp expense. So as you know, we reported a 13% increase in noncomp expense. About 3% was related to litigation. I'm not going to sort of foreshadow where that will be. But just to understand in the component of growth, 3% of the 13% was just that.

是的。所以，Mike，也許回答這個問題的方式是，讓我把非薪酬費用（noncomp expense）年對年成長稍微拆解一下。如你所知，我們報告非薪酬費用增加了13%。其中約3%與訴訟相關。我不打算在這裡先行暗示它接下來會如何發展。但就成長的組成來理解，13%裡面有3%就是這個因素。

About another 3% -- 3% to 4% was related to broader investment around the firm, whether that's tech investment, consumer, transaction banking and United Capital. Now that's going to grow. But that segment of noncomp expense is going to start to sort of graduate off as those businesses start to hit a certain level of maturity. And as I've said, we are looking to prune expenses all around the firm so as to create operating leverage and fund the continued investment expense that's there.

另外大約還有3%——約3%到4%——與公司層面更廣泛的投資有關，不論是科技投資、消費者業務、交易銀行，以及United Capital。這部分會持續成長。但隨著這些業務達到一定成熟度，這一段非薪酬費用將開始逐步「畢業」並淡出。而且如我所說，我們正尋求在全公司範圍內修剪費用，以創造營運槓桿，並為持續存在的投資費用提供資金。

And then finally, I would say there is -- there are certain elements of investment entities and other components of expense growth in noncomp that equally will come off over time. So I just draw that out. What I do want to tell you is that as we get to Investor Day, we're going to give you a certain expense target that we're going to look to harvest out of the firm in very concrete terms, that will help feed what I've been describing, which is an objective of creating capacity for reinvestment in the firm over time. And so that's why when I guide you that direction as being flat, it is consistent with creating that capacity.

最後，我會說，非薪酬費用中的某些投資實體（investment entities）以及其他費用成長的組成項目，也會隨時間推移而同樣逐步下降。所以我把這些拆開說明。我想告訴你的是，等到投資人日（Investor Day），我們會以非常具體的方式，給你一個我們希望從公司中「收割」出來的費用目標，這將有助於支撐我一直在描述的事情，也就是：隨時間推移，為公司再投資創造容量的目標。因此，當我引導你朝「持平」的方向看時，這與創造該容量是一致的。

There will be growth. Some of the growth will come off. Others will be funded by capacity we create in and around the firm.

費用會有成長。其中一部分成長會逐步消退。其他部分則會由我們在公司內外所創造的容量來支應。

All right. That's helpful. And then just one big picture question. Both David and you, Stephen, mentioned well-functioning and constructive capital markets. You said the trends early in 2020 are more positive. I guess why do you think that's the case? And do you think this time is different versus the past decade? Do you think these improvements are sustainable or not? Or what's your level of conviction? In other words, we haven't heard you on the earnings call, David or Stephen, for a long period of time, so we can't tell your relative constructiveness on the market. So I guess a little more color on that.

好的。這很有幫助。接著再問一個宏觀的大問題。David和你，Stephen，都提到運作良好且具建設性的資本市場。你說2020年初的趨勢更為正面。我想問你為什麼你會這麼認為？你覺得這次和過去十年相比有什麼不同嗎？你認為這些改善是可持續的嗎？或者你的信心程度如何？換句話說，我們已經很久沒有在財報電話會議上聽到你們（David或Stephen）的看法，所以無法判斷你們對市場相對而言有多建設性。所以想請你再多補充一些細節。

All right. Well, I appreciate the question, Mike. And I don't know that I can help you with my relative. I'll try to reiterate some of the things that I said, and hopefully it will be helpful context.

好的。Mike，我很感謝這個問題。我不確定我能否幫你比較「相對」程度。我會試著重申我說過的一些事情，希望能提供有用的背景。

So I do think the economic environment at the moment is constructive. What I said on the call about the U.S. economy and our expectation of growth of about 2% in 2020, we have relatively high conviction on. I can give you a set of things from a macro or geopolitical perspective that could change which would significantly shock confidence, and therefore change that picture. But I think the chance of that happening in 2020, at this point seems low. It's not 0, but it doesn't seem likely.

我確實認為目前的經濟環境是具建設性的。我在電話會議上提到美國經濟，以及我們對2020年約2%成長的預期，對此我們有相對高的信心。我可以列出一些宏觀或地緣政治層面的因素，它們若發生變化，可能會大幅衝擊信心，從而改變這個情境。但就目前來看，我認為2020年發生那種情況的機率似乎偏低。不是零，但看起來不太可能。

I think that there's been a slight improvement, and that's what I said when I was asked earlier when we were talking about corporate sentiment, a slight improvement in corporate sentiment as we came to the end of the year. And there was some progress in the year on some of the macro overhang that would have a tendency to affect corporate sentiment. And so I think you have a slightly more positive corporate sentiment heading into 2020, and I do see some indications around deal activity that look a little stronger in the fourth quarter and as we stepped into the first quarter of this year.

我認為企業情緒略有改善——這也是我先前在談企業情緒時被問到所說的——在年底時企業情緒有些微改善。而且在這一年裡，一些會對企業情緒造成影響的宏觀「懸而未決」因素也取得了一些進展。因此，我認為進入2020年時企業情緒稍微更正面；同時，我也看到一些與交易活動相關的跡象，在第四季以及我們踏入今年第一季時，看起來略為更強。

So I do think it's constructive. I made comments with respect to sluggishness in Europe but a little bit more constructive on China, again with a little bit of a clearing of the U.S.-China as a step forward. That might remove some slight headwinds, but I don't know how to give you a relative. I think our general point of view is, in the distribution of outcomes, the highly most likely outcome is we have a relatively benign economic environment in 2020.

所以我確實認為這是具建設性的。我也評論過歐洲仍顯得遲滯，但對中國則稍微更具建設性；同樣地，美中之間的情勢稍有釐清，算是向前一步。這可能會移除一些輕微的逆風，但我不知道要如何給你一個相對比較。我想我們的整體觀點是：在各種可能結果的分布中，最可能的結果是2020年會是一個相對溫和（benign）的經濟環境。

The next question is from the line of Brennan Hawken with UBS.

下一個問題來自UBS的Brennan Hawken。

Just a quick follow-up on the target around the noncomp in your expectations. I think Stephen, you had said that you expect to -- it to be flat from here. Just to clarify, is that a -- that from here noncomp for the full year of 2019 ex litigation? Or is that the 4Q run rate ex litigation?

針對你們對非薪酬費用目標的預期，我想快速追問一下。我記得Stephen你說你預期——從這裡起——它會持平。想確認一下，這個「從這裡起」是指2019年全年、扣除訴訟（ex litigation）的非薪酬費用嗎？還是指第四季的運行率（run rate）、扣除訴訟？

No, I would say it's in the 2019 ex litigation, kind of where we stand on the full year.

不，我會說是以2019年扣除訴訟為基礎，也就是我們目前對全年水準的看法。

Perfect. And then another one on expenses. There was -- curious about comp and whether or not there might have been some noise in the comp ratio this year. There was an elevated level of partners retiring. Did that have any impact on that metric here this year, or less so?

很好。再問一個關於費用的問題。我想了解薪酬（comp），以及今年薪酬比率（comp ratio）是否可能有一些雜訊。今年合夥人退休的人數偏高。這對今年這個指標有任何影響嗎？還是影響不大？

Thanks for the question, Brennan. No, with respect to the comp ratio, partner retirements and the movement of partners in and out of the firm had no impact on the comp ratio.

謝謝你的問題，Brennan。沒有，就薪酬比率而言，合夥人退休以及合夥人在公司內外的進出，對薪酬比率沒有任何影響。

I would just comment because I've seen some commentary on this. When we look at the movement of partners through the cycle, the 2-year cycle of partners, and we have an election coming up this fall, there's nothing about the movement in 2019 that looks different to us than the movement we've seen over the first year of the last number of cycles. So we have movement in our partnership. It's part of the culture of the partnership that younger partners are brought up. And despite some of the dialogue around it, we don't see anything significant about the movement of partners at this point in the cycle.

我補充一下，因為我看到外界對此有一些評論。當我們觀察合夥人在景氣循環中的流動、也就是合夥人的兩年週期，而且我們今年秋天將有一次選舉，2019年的流動情況在我們看來，與過去若干個週期第一年的流動並沒有不同。所以我們的合夥人確實會有流動。讓較年輕的合夥人被提拔上來，是合夥文化的一部分。儘管外界有一些討論，但在這個週期的此時此刻，我們並未看到合夥人流動有任何顯著異常。

Your next question is from the line of Jim Mitchell with Buckingham Research.

下一個問題來自Buckingham Research的Jim Mitchell。

Maybe we can talk a little bit about your expansion of the alternatives business? And just maybe talk a little bit about the efforts to accelerate that growth and if there will be any kind of balance sheet usage associated with that. Or is it really going to be just sort of AUM growth?

也許我們可以談談你們另類投資（alternatives）業務的擴張？並請你談談加速該成長的努力，以及是否會伴隨任何資產負債表（balance sheet）的使用。或者這真的會只是某種AUM成長？

So what we've tried to do -- and at the Investor Day, we'll give you more color on this and kind of walk you through a plan around it. So we've run an alternative business that has been some client capital and balance sheet capital. And in the context of that client capital and balance sheet capital, the business has been housed in multiple different businesses spread across the firm. We have now brought all those businesses together in one business and we are -- we have put together and are moving forward with a plan to significantly increase the institutional client money that we manage with that infrastructure around the globe. Historically we have managed some institutional money, but we've managed very significant private wealth money in addition to using our balance sheet.

我們一直嘗試做的是——在投資人日我們會就此提供更多細節，並帶你們走過相關計畫。我們經營的另類投資業務，過去同時包含部分客戶資金與資產負債表資本（balance sheet capital）。在客戶資金與資產負債表資本的架構下，這項業務分散在公司內多個不同部門之中。我們現在已把所有這些業務整合到同一個業務單位，並且——我們已制定並正推進一項計畫，要在全球範圍內，透過這套基礎設施大幅提升我們所管理的機構客戶資金。過去我們確實管理過一些機構資金，但除了使用我們的資產負債表之外，我們也管理了非常可觀的私人財富資金。

On a go-forward basis, we don't plan to grow the balance sheet, but we will continue to use balance sheet. But we will remix that balance sheet so that the RWA density is different and it's less capital-intensive. But the primary growth plan for the business is to over time raise a significantly increased amount of institutional capital that appreciates the fact that our consolidated alternative platform is broad, global and deep, in that we operate in all the different categories: private equity, growth equity, credit, infrastructure, real estate. And we also do it all over the world and have resources all over the world to execute on that. And that is very attractive to the large institutional capital raisers, and we have not traditionally attacked or partnered with them across this [broad] platform. And so at Investor Day, we'll give you more color on how we plan to do that and what you could expect from that over the coming 5 years.

就未來而言，我們不打算擴張資產負債表，但我們會持續使用資產負債表。但我們會重新配置該資產負債表，使RWA密度有所不同，並降低資本密集度。但本業的主要成長計畫，是隨時間推進募集顯著增加的機構資本；這些機構資本認同我們整合式另類投資平台的廣度、全球性與深度，因為我們涵蓋所有不同類別：私募股權、成長型股權、信貸、基礎建設、不動產。而且我們在全球各地運作，並在世界各地配置資源以執行這些策略。這對大型機構資本募集者非常有吸引力，而我們過去並未在這個[廣泛]平台上主動切入或與他們合作。因此在投資人日，我們會更詳細說明我們打算如何做到這點，以及未來5年你可以期待的成果。

That's really helpful. Is there any challenge or do you find in competing with your more pure-play competitors that are publicly traded, do you think there's some sort of disadvantage in raising institutional money, having your hands in other businesses? Or you don't think that's an issue?

這真的很有幫助。在與那些更純粹、且已上市的同業競爭時，你們是否遇到任何挑戰？你是否認為因為你們同時涉足其他業務，在募集機構資金方面會有某種劣勢？還是你不覺得這是問題？

Well, we've been in these businesses for 30 years, and we've executed well in these businesses for 30 years. We've also been a leader in providing services to those businesses that you refer to. We have an active dialogue with those companies about our activities and what we plan to do. And John, Stephen and I are extremely focused on the client orientation and the client nature in the context of the way we run the firm.

我們在這些業務已經做了30年，而且30年來執行得很好。我們也一直是為你所提到的那些業務提供服務的領導者。我們與那些公司就我們的活動以及我們計畫要做的事保持積極對話。而John、Stephen和我非常專注於以客戶為導向，以及在我們經營公司的方式中所體現的客戶本質。

The other firms that are out there have very, very ambitious institutional capital-raising plans from institutions, but there's a lot of capital to allocate. And we're very comfortable that they can raise a lot of capital, we can raise a lot of capital. What's interesting about this business is this is a business that actually is growing secularly. And so we think we're very well-positioned given where we are, both to participate but also to continue to service those clients in a differentiated and value-added way.

外面的其他公司都有非常、非常雄心勃勃的機構資本募集計畫，但可配置的資本也很多。我們很有信心，他們可以募集到很多資本，我們也可以募集到很多資本。這個業務有趣之處在於，它其實是一個結構性成長的業務。因此我們認為，以我們目前的位置，我們不僅能參與其中，也能以差異化、增值的方式持續服務這些客戶，並且具備很好的優勢。

Your next question is from the line of Chris Kotowski with Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自Oppenheimer的Chris Kotowski。

Yes. Actually, my question was related to that last one, which is in looking at the Asset Management segment and the $22 billion of mainly private equity investments, I guess the question is -- I mean if you put it in the context of the publicly traded alternatives, Blackstone has a pretty big business, and their GP investments is about $1.8 billion by comparison. And so what is the strategic need for and rationale for keeping that large of a balance sheet commitment?

是的。其實我的問題與上一題相關：在看資產管理部門以及主要為私募股權投資的220億美元時，我想問的是——如果把它放在上市另類資產管理公司的脈絡下，Blackstone的業務規模很大，而他們的GP投資相較之下約為18億美元。那麼，維持如此大規模的資產負債表承諾，其策略上的必要性與理由是什麼？

So we have a differentiated model. And there's no question that Blackstone operates the business with very low -- with no capital. If maybe we were starting today from scratch with a white sheet of paper, you might develop the business differently. But what's happened because of the way we run our business is we've built out a very, very broad, deep global network of investors all over the world. And we think that's a real asset to capital allocators. We've done that because we've built up strength investing off our balance sheet. And historically, candidly, one of the things investors have liked is they like the fact that we partner with them, and we have skin in the game, and we're committed to investments with them. That alignment, I think is a very, very good thing. And I think that will be a differentiated component of our strategy here. And so strategically, that's something, I think, that differentiates us in the context of this strategy.

我們有一個差異化的模式。毫無疑問，Blackstone以非常低——甚至不需要資本的方式來運作這項業務。如果我們今天才從零開始、在一張白紙上重新設計，你可能會用不同方式來打造這門生意。但因為我們經營業務的方式，我們在全球各地建立了一個非常、非常廣泛且深厚的投資人網絡。我們認為這對資本配置者而言是一項真正的資產。我們之所以能做到，是因為我們透過資產負債表投資建立了實力。而且坦白說，過去投資人喜歡的一點是：他們喜歡我們與他們共同投資、我們有「skin in the game（與投資同舟共濟）」、並且與他們一起承諾投入。我認為那種一致性是非常、非常好的事情。我也認為這將成為我們在此策略中的一個差異化要素。因此在策略上，我認為這是在此策略脈絡下讓我們與眾不同的一點。

Also, as we grow new products and services in the space around the world and add to what we're doing, it is easier to fund the acceleration of that if you do have the capacity to use balance sheet to jump-start some of those businesses. So again, going back to what I said before, we would not expect the balance sheet to grow. We would expect to change the RWA density by shifting some out of equity into more credit or infrastructure-type assets, but we think we have a competitive advantage or a different strategy that's a good advantage to partner with our clients, and we plan to continue it.

此外，當我們在全球各地擴展新的產品與服務、並在既有作為上持續加碼時，如果你有能力運用資產負債表來為其中一些業務「啟動」並加速發展，資金支持會更容易。所以再次回到我先前所說，我們不預期資產負債表會成長。我們預期會透過把部分配置從股權移向更多信貸或基礎建設類資產，來改變RWA密度；但我們認為，與客戶共同投資是一種競爭優勢或不同策略，而且是好的優勢，我們也計畫持續下去。

Your next question is from the line of Devin Ryan with JMP Securities.

下一個問題來自JMP Securities的Devin Ryan。

I guess first question here, so I saw the Marcus app was rolled out last week. And I'm just curious, what took so long, I guess, to get that out? And how are you thinking about integrating that with some of the other products in consumer and really integrating it with Clarity Money in that app as well? And really the question is, I'm just trying to understand some of the branding in consumer and what you're going to be using, call it, as the digital storefront.

我想先問第一個問題：我看到Marcus app在上週推出了。我有點好奇，為什麼花了這麼久才推出？以及你們如何思考把它與消費金融的其他產品整合，並且也把Clarity Money整合到那個app裡？更具體地說，我想理解的是消費端的品牌策略，以及你們打算用什麼作為數位門面（digital storefront）。

So on the Marcus app, when we first began Marcus 3 years ago, you'll recall that our 2 products were deposits and unsecured loans. So the utility of the app early on was not quite high, meaning people who carry a loan are not looking to check on it with the frequency of those that use apps for their day-to-day exchange. And so we sort of set a set of priorities for ourselves in terms of the direction we were going to build, and we would ultimately come upon the app.

關於Marcus app，當我們在3年前剛開始做Marcus時，你會記得我們的兩個產品是存款與無擔保貸款。因此在早期，app的實用性並不算高；也就是說，持有貸款的人不會像日常交易型app使用者那樣頻繁地查看。所以我們為自己設定了一系列優先順序，決定我們要建置的方向，而app最終會在那個路徑上推出。

I would say at -- from the moment we began to think about the design of the app and, in fact, bringing Clarity Money into the house, the idea was to take the best of the technology. That is what Clarity Money had developed, which was super interesting in terms of prompts and the use of intelligence to do that and kind of a 2-way engagement with the user or consumer of the app, we wanted to embed that in a broader app that we would roll out. So you're seeing the first phase of that now, particularly as people will start to engage more and more with us, again, with greater frequency than they did at the start. And we're embedding the best of what is Clarity Money in the context of the creation of that app overall. And so it was really a question of anticipated use, slower at the start, faster now, a question of priorities and now bringing it together.

我會說，從我們開始思考app的設計、以及實際把Clarity Money納入旗下的那一刻起，我們的想法就是要把最好的技術——也就是Clarity Money所開發的技術——帶進來；那在提示（prompts）、以及運用智慧來做到這點、並與app使用者或消費者形成某種雙向互動方面都非常有意思，我們希望把它嵌入到我們將推出的更大型app之中。

On your question about branding, I think I'll defer you to Investor Day, when we'll talk a lot more with much greater context than I could answer in a single question on the branding strategy around consumer and around wealth management more broadly.

至於你問到的品牌議題，我想請你等到投資人日；屆時我們會在消費端以及更廣泛的財富管理品牌策略上，提供更多內容與更完整的脈絡，這不是我在單一問題中能充分回答的。

Okay. Terrific. Looking forward to that. And then just a follow-up here, modeling the comp ratio and then cadence moving forward. So the fourth quarter comp ratio was about 600 basis points below the first quarter level. I know that's much tighter than the historical relationship and I also know consistent with how you're now looking to accrue on more of a real-time basis. You also had a very strong fourth quarter for equity investment performance, which I would think could have a lower comp ratio, too. So I'm just trying to get some flavor for whether the 2019 [co-op] relationship is a decent proxy on a quarterly basis or did the stronger fourth quarter in the equity performance maybe skew that a bit lower?

好的。太好了。很期待。接著補問一下，關於薪酬比率（comp ratio）的建模以及未來的節奏。第四季的薪酬比率大約比第一季水準低了600個基點。我知道這比歷史關係緊得多，也知道這與你們現在希望以更即時的方式計提一致。你們第四季的股權投資績效也非常強，我想這也可能帶來較低的薪酬比率。所以我想了解的是：2019年的[co-op]關係在季度層面是否是一個不錯的代理指標？還是第四季較強的股權績效，可能把那個比率拉得更低了一些？

Sure. So let me start from the top. As you know, our comp and benefits line was flat year-over-year. And our comp to net revenue number was roughly in line, slightly higher than where it was last year. So that's to look at the full year. Embedded in your question was in fact the right reference, which is, as I've said several times, we are accruing for compensation in each quarter as the accounting standards require, which is our best estimate of the compensation we would need. And so we've done that much more on a straight line without relying or waiting on the fourth quarter so as to be a bigger adjustment. And so you're seeing more straight line. Because of that, you're seeing this fourth quarter variability relative to where we were in the past. That's just a function of the way in which we are now accounting. Again, more of a straight line than not.

好的。那我先從整體開始說起。如各位所知，我們的薪酬與福利項目同比持平。而我們的薪酬占淨營收比率大致與去年一致，略高於去年水準。這是從全年角度來看。你問題中其實提到了正確的參考點：正如我已多次說過的，我們依照會計準則要求，在每一季都為薪酬進行應計，這是我們對所需薪酬的最佳估計。因此，我們更採取直線式地進行提列，而不是依賴或等到第四季再做較大的調整。所以你看到的是更直線化的走勢。也正因如此，相較於過去，你會看到第四季的波動性。這只是我們目前會計處理方式所造成的結果。再說一次，現在更偏向直線式，而不是相反。

I would say, just to step back from the particulars, I think that from a compensation point of view, we had taken payroll and compensation expense down in a number of different businesses over the year in order to redeploy compensation to populations of people that are working on some of the growth businesses that we have. By definition that compensation dollar is not producing an equal amount of revenue as it would in other areas. It will as those businesses grow and mature. And so part of this is a reallocation of compensation in that direction while maintaining comp and benefits at a constant or flat year-over-year and reflecting in on the comp to net revenue number being roughly flat as well.

我想先暫時跳脫細節來看，從薪酬角度而言，我們在一年當中於多個不同業務下調了薪資與薪酬費用，以便將薪酬重新配置到正在從事我們部分成長型業務的人員族群。按定義來說，這部分薪酬支出不會像在其他領域那樣產生同等金額的收入。但隨著這些業務成長並成熟，情況會改變。因此，其中一部分反映的是薪酬朝該方向的重新配置，同時維持薪酬與福利同比不變或持平，並使薪酬占淨營收比率也大致持平。

Your next question comes from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

I was wondering -- and you may not be able to answer this question today, which is fine and if you can't, possibly you may want to give us this detail at Investor Day. But in the regulatory filings for all the banks, there's a category of loans called loans to nondepository financial institutions. And when we look at that for the top banks like your own, the growth has been pretty impressive since 2013. And when we look at it for your organization, back then it was about $6.7 billion, and today it's approximately $43 billion. So the question is, what's in that portfolio? And again, if you don't have the details I understand, but maybe you could share with us on Investor Day some good details of what's in that portfolio?

我想請教——你今天可能無法回答這個問題也沒關係；如果不能，也許你們可以在投資人日提供這些細節。在所有銀行的監管申報文件中，有一類貸款稱為「對非存款類金融機構的貸款」。當我們觀察像你們這樣的頂尖銀行，這個項目自 2013 年以來的成長相當驚人。以你們機構為例，當時大約是 67 億美元，而現在約為 430 億美元。所以問題是：這個投資組合裡面是什麼？同樣地，如果你沒有細節我能理解，但也許你們可以在投資人日和我們分享一些關於該投資組合內容的詳細資訊？

Yes. So I think I don't -- I want to give you an answer with some specificity. So let me suggest that Heather Miner and her team get back in touch with you, and we can itemize, as is publicly disclosed, what exactly sits in that category, and we can give you some progression of how that's migrated. I just don't have the particulars around that to hand.

可以。我想——我希望能給你一個具體一些的答案。所以我建議讓 Heather Miner 和她的團隊再與你聯繫，我們可以逐項列出（在公開揭露範圍內）這個類別中究竟包含哪些內容，並提供其如何變動遷移的進程。我手邊目前沒有相關細節。

That's okay. In your -- that's not unusual, by the way. When we ask this question of other banks, most people don't really give us the details but that's fine.

沒關係。順帶一提，這並不罕見。我們向其他銀行問這個問題時，多數人也不太會提供細節，但沒關係。

Then the second question, can you give us some color -- obviously the Apple Card has received a wonderful amount of publicity, and Apple has branded it, of course, as a card created by them and not a bank type of logo. The question I have is, Apple is obviously very respectful of their brand and their customers. And in a recession, we all know unemployment goes up. And we also know that credit card delinquencies have a link to unemployment. Have you guys -- is there anything that concerns you that as we go into a recession, say unemployment goes to 6%, delinquencies for all credit cards more than double from where we are today, are you going to be hamstrung trying to collect those delinquencies because of the way it's been branded as an Apple Card, and it's not a bank?

那第二個問題，你能否提供一些看法——顯然 Apple Card 受到非常多的關注與正面宣傳，而 Apple 當然也把它塑造成由他們打造的卡片，而不是帶有銀行標誌的那種。我的問題是，Apple 顯然非常重視他們的品牌與客戶。在景氣衰退時，我們都知道失業率會上升。我們也知道信用卡逾期與失業率之間存在關聯。你們是否有任何擔憂：如果我們進入衰退，例如失業率升至 6%，所有信用卡的逾期率相較於目前水準增加一倍以上，你們會不會因為它被品牌化為 Apple Card、而不是銀行，而在催收這些逾期款項時受到掣肘？

Yes. So thanks for the question. I want to be really clear on this. Notwithstanding whoever lays claim to the creation of the card, there's only one institution that's making underwriting decisions, and that's Goldman Sachs. So Goldman Sachs is making all of the underwriting decisions as it relates to it. We have set targets and goals and objectives along with Apple as a good partner would, and Apple is completely in the know as to sort of how we are going about these underwriting decisions. But the ultimate decision sits with us. And so we calibrate, manage our risk and collections in the context of that. And so I think I just want to be really clear about that. It is the bank that renders underwriting decisions in that regard.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我想把這點講得非常清楚。不論誰宣稱是這張卡的創造者，實際上只有一家機構在做核貸決策，那就是高盛。因此，所有與此相關的核貸決策都是由高盛做出。我們與 Apple 作為良好合作夥伴一樣，共同設定了目標、目的與指標，而 Apple 也完全了解我們在進行這些核貸決策時的做法。但最終決策權在我們這裡。因此，我們會在此脈絡下校準並管理風險與催收。所以我想把這點說得非常清楚。在這方面做出核貸決策的是銀行。

Our next question is from the line of Brian Kleinhanzl with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brian Kleinhanzl。

Yes. I'll be quick here. It looks like on the consumer side, you saw deposits go up about $5 billion this quarter. But you seem to have better growth when you enter into new markets. Is there any type of geographic expansion that you're planning within the markets business that can kind of accelerate growth on deposits there?

是的。我簡短問一下。看起來在消費者端，你們本季存款增加了約 50 億美元。但你們在進入新市場時似乎能有更好的成長。在市場業務方面，你們是否規劃任何形式的地理擴張，以加速那邊的存款成長？

Yes, sure. Thank you. That question has come up frequently. Obviously, the primary growth is in the U.S. In the U.K., we have seen considerable growth in deposits, which has really teased us even relative to the early expectations. We have looked at a variety of other jurisdictions in terms of where we could raise deposits. Germany is a name that has come up several times. It's natural that it would, in the context of Brexit and planning and doing more asset generation in through our European business. I think we'll wait and see how things progress around Brexit, the size, magnitude and pace of asset growth there, before we make a decision about where we next plant the flag from a deposit perspective. And so there are no immediate plans in terms of a next jurisdiction, but we continue to evaluate it. And we have built the platform, particularly in the U.K., with embedding greater flexibility for us to open it or open a new jurisdiction without building from ground zero. And so it was planned with that in mind.

是的，當然。謝謝。這個問題經常被問到。顯然，主要成長在美國。在英國，我們看到存款大幅成長，甚至相較於早期預期還更令人驚喜。我們也評估過其他多個司法管轄區，看看在哪裡可以吸收存款。德國這個選項已多次被提及。在英國脫歐（Brexit）的背景下，以及我們規劃並透過歐洲業務進行更多資產生成時，這是很自然會想到的。我想我們會先觀察脫歐相關進展、當地資產成長的規模、幅度與速度，再決定下一個在存款面要插旗的地點。因此，目前沒有立即要進入下一個司法管轄區的計畫，但我們會持續評估。而且我們已建立平台，特別是在英國，並在其中嵌入更高的彈性，使我們能在不必從零開始建置的情況下，開放或開設新的司法管轄區。因此當初就是以此為規劃前提。

At this time, there are no further questions. Please continue with any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。請繼續進行結語。

So since there are no more questions, I would like just to take a moment to thank everyone for joining the call. On behalf of our senior management team, we hope to see many of you later this month. If any additional questions arise in the meantime, please do not hesitate to reach out to Heather. Otherwise enjoy the rest of your day, and we look forward to speaking with you at Investor Day.

既然沒有更多問題，我想花一點時間感謝各位參與本次電話會議。我代表我們的高階管理團隊，希望在本月稍晚能見到各位中的許多人。若期間有任何其他問題，請隨時與 Heather 聯繫。否則祝各位今天剩餘時間愉快，我們期待在投資人日與各位交流。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the Goldman Sachs Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，本次高盛 2019 年第四季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。現在您可以掛線。