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Operator
Operator
Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Graphic Packaging Holding Company fourth quarter and full year 2025 conference call. (Operator Instructions)
大家好,歡迎參加 Graphic Packaging Holding Company 2025 年第四季及全年業績電話會議。(操作說明)
It is now my pleasure to hand the floor over to your host, Mark Connelly. Sir, the floor is yours.
現在我很高興把發言權交給主持人馬克康納利。先生,請您發言。
Mark Connelly - Senior Vice President, Investor Strategy and Development
Mark Connelly - Senior Vice President, Investor Strategy and Development
Good morning. We have with us today Robbert Rietbroek, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Chuck Lischer, Senior Vice President and Interim Chief Financial Officer.
早安.今天在場的有總裁兼執行長羅伯特·里特布魯克,以及資深副總裁兼臨時財務長查克·利舍爾。
During this call, we will reference our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings presentation available through this webcast and on our website at www.graphicpkg.com. Today's presentation will include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in today's press release and in our SEC filings.
在本次電話會議中,我們將提及我們2025年第四季和全年的收益報告,該報告可透過本次網路直播以及我們的網站www.graphicpkg.com取得。今天的報告將包含1995年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所界定的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於今天新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素。
Now let me turn the call over to Robert.
現在我把電話交給羅伯特。
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we review our results, I would like to take a few minutes to introduce myself and share my perspective on the for Graphic Packaging and to discuss my initial observations and key focus areas as we adjust our strategy to drive value for shareholders. I've spent more than 25 years leading global consumer brands and businesses, including leading a Fortune 500 division and serving as a public company CEO.
謝謝你,馬克。各位早安,感謝大家今天收看我們的節目。在回顧我們的績效之前,我想花幾分鐘時間自我介紹一下,並分享我對圖形包裝的看法,以及在調整策略以創造股東價值的過程中,我的初步觀察和重點關注領域。我擁有超過 25 年的全球消費品牌和企業領導經驗,包括領導財富 500 強部門和擔任上市公司執行長。
I've lived and [worked] across North America, Europe, South America and Australia. Over that time, I've held leadership roles at Procter & Gamble, Pepsi Co., Kimberly-Clark and Primo brands, where I gained experience operating complex businesses with global manufacturing and supply chains and building consumer brands at scale. In several of these roles, I've been a customer of Graphic Packaging and my teams work closely with the Graphic Packaging team to design winning packaging solutions.
我曾在北美、歐洲、南美和澳洲生活和工作。在此期間,我曾在寶潔、百事可樂、金佰利和Primo等品牌擔任領導職務,積累了運營擁有全球製造和供應鏈的複雜業務以及大規模打造消費品牌的經驗。在這些職位中,我曾是 Graphic Packaging 的客戶,我的團隊與 Graphic Packaging 團隊緊密合作,設計出色的包裝解決方案。
Throughout my career, packaging design and procurement has been a major part of my work. I work directly with brand teams and retail customers on creating winning packaging, including design and technical specifications, sustainability and manufacturing requirements and performance needs. Notably, I worked on three innovative packaging solutions that went on to receive patents protection. Packaging is a critical part of the consumer experience and I am aware of how packaging influences consumer purchasing decisions at the shelf and how consumers interact with packaging at home.
在我的職業生涯中,包裝設計和採購一直是我工作的重要部分。我直接與品牌團隊和零售客戶合作,打造成功的包裝,包括設計和技術規格、永續性和製造要求以及性能需求。值得一提的是,我參與研發了三項創新包裝解決方案,這些方案後來都獲得了專利保護。包裝是消費者體驗的重要組成部分,我了解包裝如何影響消費者在貨架上的購買決定,以及消費者在家中如何與包裝互動。
I understand how important packaging is to our customers across the consumer packaged goods, quick service restaurants and retail industries. And I'm acutely aware of the challenges and opportunities our customers face in a world of GLP-1, [MAA] and the evolution of private label. I also see firsthand the exceptional quality of our packaging solutions and the impact they have on customers, brands and consumers.
我了解包裝對於我們消費品包裝、快餐店和零售業的客戶來說有多重要。我深切意識到,在 GLP-1、[MAA] 和自有品牌發展的新時代,我們的客戶面臨挑戰和機會。我也親眼目睹了我們包裝解決方案的卓越品質及其對客戶、品牌和消費者的影響。
I have a deep appreciation to the role we play not just in protecting products or reducing costs, but in shaping and enhancing brand perception, enabling sustainability goals and delivering exceptional quality and reliability. That perspective is what attracted me to Graphic Packaging, and it will shape how I approach the business and manage towards the substantial opportunities we have ahead.
我深切體會到,我們不僅在保護產品或降低成本方面發揮作用,而且在塑造和提升品牌認知、實現永續發展目標以及提供卓越的品質和可靠性方面也發揮著作用。正是這種視角吸引我加入 Graphic Packaging,它也將塑造我對待業務和管理的方式,以掌握我們未來面臨的巨大機會。
Today, I will spend some time discussing how I am assessing the business. What excites me about the foundation we have and where I see opportunities to significantly improve performance and create value for shareholders. Chuck will then walk you through our fourth quarter and full year results and our outlook. Graphic Packaging is a world-class company with leading positions across attractive end markets. Strong relationships with many of the world's most respected consumer brands and retailers and industry-leading asset base that was built to provide high level of integration and durable long-term competitive advantage.
今天,我將花些時間討論一下我是如何評估這家企業的。讓我感到興奮的是,我們擁有的基礎以及我認為可以顯著提高業績並為股東創造價值的機會。接下來,Chuck 將為大家詳細介紹我們第四季和全年的業績以及我們的展望。Graphic Packaging 是一家世界級公司,在各個極具吸引力的終端市場中都佔據領先地位。與許多世界最受尊敬的消費品牌和零售商建立了牢固的關係,並擁有行業領先的資產基礎,旨在提供高度整合和持久的長期競爭優勢。
Our people, scale and capabilities are significant strengths. We have an exceptional team and an industry-leading production footprint, including a network of about in facilities and the two the two highest quality and most efficient recycled paperboard manufacturing facilities in North America, in Waco and Kalamazoo.
我們的人員、規模和能力都是顯著優勢。我們擁有一支卓越的團隊和領先業界的生產規模,包括遍布各地的工廠網絡,以及北美兩家品質最高、效率最高的再生紙板生產工廠,分別位於韋科和卡拉馬祖。
Our superior innovation and technical capabilities are helping us build stronger, deeper customer relationships with leading CPGs, QSRs and retailers. While our manufacturing footprint and customer relationships are strong, we recognize that there is significant work to do. The actions we are taking now and will take place in the next several months are focused on unlocking Graphic Packaging's full potential to drive stronger performance and value for all our stakeholders. Our investors, communities, employees, customers and suppliers.
我們卓越的創新和技術能力正在幫助我們與領先的消費品公司、快餐連鎖店和零售商建立更牢固、更深入的客戶關係。雖然我們的生產規模和客戶關係都很強大,但我們也意識到還有很多工作要做。我們現在正在採取以及未來幾個月將要採取的行動,都旨在充分發揮圖形包裝的潛力,從而為我們所有的利害關係人帶來更強勁的業績和價值。我們的投資者、社區、員工、客戶和供應商。
When I stepped into the CEO role at the beginning of the year, we initiated a comprehensive, operational and business review, including of the company's footprint, systems and organization, selected portfolio assets and financial performance. This review is underway now.
今年年初我擔任執行長一職時,我們啟動了一項全面的營運和業務審查,包括對公司規模、系統和組織、選定的投資組合資產和財務表現的審查。本次審查進行中。
I've already visited multiple facilities including Waco, Macon and Perry spent meaningful time with our leadership team and the Board held a global town hall joined by several thousand of our employees join the leadership of select industry organizations, met with key customers and spoken with several of our shareholders. These interactions with our most important stakeholders are informing our early actions. Recognizing the depth of talent in this organization and the need for continuity, we've taken steps to retain and attract top talent.
我已經參觀了包括韋科、梅肯和佩里在內的多個工廠,與我們的領導團隊和董事會進行了深入交流,並召開了全球員工大會,數千名員工參加了大會。我還與一些行業組織的領導層會面,會見了重要客戶,並與幾位股東進行了交談。與最重要的利害關係人的這些互動正在為我們的早期行動提供資訊。我們認識到本組織人才濟濟,也意識到需要保持組織的連續性,因此我們採取了措施來留住和吸引頂尖人才。
We have also implemented select initial organizational and reporting changes to enhance transparency and accountability. We established a transformation office led by our new Chief Transformation sort who will work hand-in-hand with me to drive operational improvements, enhanced productivity and cost savings throughout the organization without disrupting customer service.
我們也實施了一些初步的組織和報告的改革,以提高透明度和問責制。我們成立了一個轉型辦公室,由我們新任的首席轉型官領導,他將與我攜手合作,在不影響客戶服務的前提下,推動整個組織的營運改善、提高生產力和節省成本。
We engaged external expertise to supplement our own resources as we evaluate opportunities to enhance profitability and drive growth and innovation. And we have initiated a comprehensive view of our organization structure and operations footprint and a selective portfolio review to ensure that our resources are focused where we can create the greatest value for our shareholders.
我們聘請外部專家來補充我們自身的資源,以便評估提高獲利能力、推動成長和創新的機會。我們已啟動對組織結構和營運佈局的全面審查以及有選擇的業務組合審查,以確保我們的資源集中在能夠為股東創造最大價值的地方。
Now that I have been in the role a little more than 30 days, I would like to share a few of my initial observations on the most meaningful opportunities within our control. One, the external environment remains challenged near term. Overcapacity commodity bleach paperboard markets is putting pressure on finished packaging, and demand trends for consumer staples remain uneven as a result of affordability and macroeconomic concerns.
現在我擔任這個職位已經超過 30 天了,我想分享一些我對我們能夠掌控的最有意義的機會的初步觀察。第一,短期內外在環境仍充滿挑戰。商品漂白紙板市場產能過剩,對成品包裝帶來壓力,而由於價格承受能力和宏觀經濟方面的擔憂,消費者必需品的需求趨勢仍然不穩定。
While we expect these trends to improve, we also acknowledge that a consumer purchasing patterns and the dynamics between brands and private label are evolving. We are not simply waiting for markets to recover. We are focused on what we can control and where our resources have the best opportunities to create lasting value.
雖然我們預期這些趨勢會有所改善,但我們也承認消費者的購買模式以及品牌和自有品牌之間的動態關係正在改變。我們並非只是在等待市場復甦。我們專注於我們能夠控制的事情,以及我們的資源最有可能創造持久價值的地方。
Two, the combination of softer-than-expected market demand and the need to build inventory out of the Waco startup led to paperboard and finished goods inventory levels higher than what we currently required. In addition, we need to rightsize our cost structure for the realities of the current macroeconomic environment. We're taking immediate steps to address these issues that we believe will enhance our profitability over time and drive free cash generation in 2026 and beyond.
第二,市場需求低於預期,加上韋科新創公司需要建立庫存,導致紙板和成品庫存水準高於我們目前所需的水準。此外,我們需要根據當前宏觀經濟環境的實際情況調整成本結構。我們正在立即採取措施解決這些問題,我們相信這些措施將隨著時間的推移提高我們的獲利能力,並在 2026 年及以後推動自由現金流的產生。
Three, we have the best and most efficient recycled paperboard manufacturing facilities in North America. However, our cost to complete these projects was higher than anticipated, driving the need to quickly the value these assets could generate.
第三,我們擁有北美最好、最有效率的再生紙板生產設施。然而,完成這些項目的成本高於預期,因此我們需要盡快實現這些資產所能產生的價值。
Four, we need to significantly reduce inventory and ensure that every spending decision brings an appropriate return. These steps should allow us to reduce our debt, which, in turn, would allow us to prioritize returning capital to our investors.
第四,我們需要大幅減少庫存,並確保每項支出決策都能帶來適當的回報。這些措施應該能夠幫助我們減少債務,使我們能夠優先向投資者返還資本。
Five, through the investments we have made, Graphic Packaging is strong and durable competitive advantages. However, I believe that there are select opportunities within the portfolio to better optimize our position over time and drive value creation for shareholders.
第五,透過我們進行的投資,Graphic Packaging 擁有強大且持久的競爭優勢。但我相信,投資組合中存在一些特定的機會,可以隨著時間的推移更好地優化我們的投資組合,並為股東創造價值。
And finally, we are a global leader in packaging innovation, but we need to move more quickly from idea to commercialization. We are already working to more carefully align our innovation teams with our best market opportunities in both new and existing customers. This is a key source of differentiation for Graphic Packaging. And I believe that our innovation team is the best in the business.
最後,我們是包裝創新領域的全球領導者,但我們需要加速從創意到商業化的進程。我們正在努力使我們的創新團隊與我們在新舊客戶中的最佳市場機會更加精準地匹配。這是圖形包裝的關鍵差異化來源。我相信我們的創新團隊是業界最優秀的。
In sum, I see tremendous opportunity to create real value for shareholders by: One, enhancing profitability through cost actions and operational efficiencies; two, reducing inventory and capital spending to drive significant free cash flow generation; three, driving disciplined organic growth with innovation and exceptional customer service; four, prioritizing our free cash flow to reduce our leverage and return capital to shareholders; and five, conducting a comprehensive business review.
總而言之,我認為有巨大的機會透過以下方式為股東創造真正的價值:第一,透過成本控制和營運效率提高盈利能力;第二,減少庫存和資本支出,以推動產生可觀的自由現金流;第三,透過創新和卓越的客戶服務,推動穩健的內生增長;第四,優先考慮自由現金流,以降低槓桿率並向股東審查
In 2026, we expect to generate adjusted free cash flow between $700 million and $800 million. There are, of course, onetime items in our 2026 and also in our 2027 adjusted free cash flow projections, particularly with respect to inventory reduction and cash taxes. As we look beyond that time frame, we are targeting adjusted free cash flow of $700 million plus incremental EBITDA growth, recognizing that our current adjusted EBITDA is substantially lower than it was projected to be when the company first established its Vision 2030 financial targets, when volume growth was expected to be positive.
預計到 2026 年,我們將產生 7 億美元至 8 億美元的調整後自由現金流。當然,我們的 2026 年和 2027 年調整後的自由現金流預測中都存在一次性項目,特別是與庫存減少和現金稅相關的項目。展望未來,我們的目標是調整後自由現金流達到 7 億美元,外加 EBITDA 成長。我們意識到,目前的調整後 EBITDA 遠低於公司最初制定「2030 年願景」財務目標時的預期,當時預期銷售成長為正。
Restoring top line growth and delivering stronger margins is central to our value creation plan and key to delivering on the free cash flow generation potential of this exceptional company, achieving an investment-grade credit rating by 2030 and remains a central element of our Vision 2030 commitments.
恢復營收成長並提高利潤率是我們價值創造計畫的核心,也是實現這家卓越公司自由現金流潛力、到 2030 年獲得投資等級信用評級的關鍵,並且仍然是我們「2030 年願景」承諾的核心要素。
Now let's take a few minutes to dive a little deeper into each of those objectives. Our EBITDA margins have come under pressure in recent years, driven by both the external pricing and demand environment and our own cost structure. I believe that there is meaningful opportunity to optimize our cost structure and better aligned with the current operating environment while protecting the operational capabilities and market positions that make Graphic Packaging an industry leader. This effort spends SG&A manufacturing footprint and efficiency, support functions and core processes and includes extensive deployment of AI tools.
現在讓我們花幾分鐘時間,更深入地了解這些目標。近年來,受外部定價和需求環境以及我們自身成本結構的影響,我們的 EBITDA 利潤率面臨壓力。我認為,我們有機會優化成本結構,使其更好地適應當前的經營環境,同時保護使 Graphic Packaging 成為行業領導者的營運能力和市場地位。這項工作旨在提高 SG&A 製造規模和效率、支援職能和核心流程,並廣泛部署人工智慧工具。
As previously mentioned, I have established transient office to lead the effort to strengthen accountability and drive operational excellence and enhance productivity and cost savings across our entire company without disrupting customer service. My goal is to simplify the organization, improve execution and eliminate inefficiencies, ensuring we can return to profitable growth with the cost structure that supports both our near-term needs and our long-term objectives. Where it makes sense, we will also be adding additional talent and capabilities to drive stronger organic growth.
如前所述,我已經設立了臨時辦公室,以領導加強問責制、推動卓越營運、提高整個公司的生產力和節省成本的工作,同時不影響客戶服務。我的目標是簡化組織結構,提高執行力,消除低效環節,確保我們能夠恢復獲利成長,同時維持能夠滿足近期需求和長期目標的成本結構。在條件允許的情況下,我們也會增加人才和能力,以推動更強勁的內生成長。
I want to briefly address Waco and Kalamazoo. The Waco project is substantially complete and already producing top-quality recycled paperboard to service our packaging system needs, Waco and Kalamazoo are world-class assets, the highest quality, the most efficient recycled paperboard manufacturing facilities in North America.
我想簡單談談韋科和卡拉馬祖的情況。韋科計畫已基本完成,並已開始生產高品質的再生紙板,以滿足我們的包裝系統需求。韋科和卡拉馬祖是世界一流的資產,擁有北美最高品質、最高效的再生紙板生產設施。
While the Waco facility is large, it's net impact on our capacity is quite small after we closed two of our older higher-cost facilities and other producers close capacity. Its impact on our cost of production, however, is substantial, and creates durable long-term competitive advantage. While the market has been weak, a return to more normal consumer demand should put us in a strong position to restore growth and help ensure that we can leverage our production cost advantage to drive the best possible returns from our world-class Waco and Kalamazoo assets.
雖然韋科工廠規模很大,但在我們關閉了兩家較老、成本較高的工廠以及其他生產商關閉產能之後,它對我們產能的淨影響很小。然而,它對我們的生產成本的影響是巨大的,並創造了持久的長期競爭優勢。儘管市場疲軟,但隨著消費者需求恢復正常,我們將處於有利地位,能夠恢復成長,並有助於確保我們能夠利用生產成本優勢,從我們世界一流的韋科和卡拉馬祖資產中獲得最佳回報。
Total 2025 capital spend was $935 million, higher than the company's target. Total project spend for the Waco greenfield facility, which is substantially complete is currently estimated at $1.67 billion when we include capitalized interest of approximately $80 million. Spending through the end of 2025 totaled $1.58 billion.
2025 年總資本支出為 9.35 億美元,高於公司目標。韋科新建工廠項目總支出目前估計為 16.7 億美元,其中包括約 8,000 萬美元的資本化利息。該項目已基本完工。到 2025 年底,支出總額為 15.8 億美元。
A review of the root causes of the higher than originally planned capital expenditures on the Waco project is underway, and appropriate corrective actions will be taken to prevent the similar events from occurring in the future.
目前正在對韋科項目資本支出高於原計劃的根本原因進行審查,並將採取適當的糾正措施,以防止將來發生類似事件。
Capital spending is expected to drop by approximately $485 million in 2026, including the remaining spend to complete Waco and will remain at or below 5% of sales for the next several years even as we invest selectively in productivity and new capabilities. As we exit the period of heavy capital investments, our opportunity to drive free cash flow improves significantly. We expect to reduce capital spending to approximately $450 million in 2026 and are raising the bar for new capital spending project approvals.
預計到 2026 年,資本支出將減少約 4.85 億美元,其中包括完成韋科項目的剩餘支出,並且在未來幾年內,即使我們有選擇地投資於生產力和新能力,資本支出仍將保持在銷售額的 5% 或以下。隨著我們退出大量資本投資時期,我們推動自由現金流的機會將顯著改善。我們預計在 2026 年將資本支出減少到約 4.5 億美元,並提高了新資本支出項目批准的門檻。
At the same time, we are working to reduce our inventory balance towards our 15% to 16% of sales goal from an at 20% level at year-end. Together with our ongoing cost actions, disciplined organic growth and the continued ramp-up at Waco, we expect to generate $700 million to $800 million of adjusted free cash flow in 2026 as we benefit from ongoing inventory reductions and the tax legislation passed last year, and are targeting adjusted free cash flow of $700 million plus incremental EBITDA growth in the years ahead.
同時,我們正在努力將庫存餘額從年底的 20% 降低到銷售額的 15% 至 16%,以實現我們的目標。結合我們持續的成本控制措施、穩健的內生成長以及韋科工廠的持續產能提升,我們預計到 2026 年將產生 7 億至 8 億美元的調整後自由現金流,這得益於持續的庫存削減和去年通過的稅收立法,並且我們的目標是在未來幾年實現 7 億美元的調整後自由現金流增加增量。
This will give us the flexibility to significantly reduce leverage, return capital and reinvested in the business over time. Our growth strategy is customer-centric and markets backed. We are focused on disciplined organic growth, including our resources into markets with the best long-term opportunities while reducing our exposure to markets where we see less opportunity.
這將使我們能夠靈活地大幅降低槓桿率,並將資本回饋和再投資於業務,隨著時間的推移而持續成長。我們的成長策略以客戶為中心,以市場為支撐。我們專注於穩健的有機成長,將資源投入到具有最佳長期發展機會的市場,同時減少在機會較少的市場中的投入。
We are partnering with key consumer packaged goods companies, quick-service restaurants, and retailers to improve baseline volume growth, bring innovation to market faster and, in some cases, selectively move into new end markets. In recent calls with customers, a recurring theme is the need to drive volume growth to protect or regain market share.
我們正與主要消費品公司、快餐店和零售商合作,以提高基本銷售成長,更快地將創新推向市場,並在某些情況下,有選擇地進入新的終端市場。在最近與客戶的通話中,反覆出現的主題是需要推動銷售成長以保護或重新獲得市場份額。
We are ready to help our customers meet these goals with our best-in-class packaging innovation unmatched scale and exceptional customer service. We aim to be more than a supplier. Our goal is to be a trusted strategic partner to our customers. As part of this renewed commercial and customer focus, we recently promoted Jean-Francois Roche to Chief Commercial Officer. I see the value in his global role, and I'm working with Jean-Francois to ensure that we have the talent we need to drive sustainable growth.
我們已做好準備,憑藉一流的包裝創新、無與倫比的規模和卓越的客戶服務,幫助客戶實現這些目標。我們的目標不僅僅是成為供應商。我們的目標是成為客戶值得信賴的策略夥伴。作為我們重新聚焦商業和客戶的一部分,我們最近將 Jean-Francois Roche 晉升為首席商務長。我看到了他在全球範圍內發揮的作用,我正在與 Jean-Francois 合作,以確保我們擁有推動永續成長所需的人才。
Innovation is one of Graphic Packaging's greatest competitive advantages. A strength that was built over decades in North America and enhanced by the acquisition of AR packaging in Europe in 2021. Our global innovation team is helping us bring paperboard packaging into new markets offered through plastic or form replacement.
創新是圖形包裝產業最大的競爭優勢之一。這是該公司在北美經過數十年累積的優勢,並在 2021 年收購歐洲 AR Packaging 公司後得到加強。我們的全球創新團隊正在幫助我們將紙板包裝引入透過塑膠或其他形式替代而提供的新市場。
Innovation has been a part of why we have been able to retain volume in the markets we serve. Innovations like Pace Center Rainier, ProducePack, and PaperSeal are driving adoption in growing categories such as produce, fresh food, protein, household products and wellness. Delivering the more circular, more functional and more convenient packaging solutions that Graphic Packaging is known for.
創新是我們能夠在所服務市場維持銷售的原因之一。Pace Center Rainier、ProducePack 和 PaperSeal 等創新技術正在推動農產品、新鮮食品、蛋白質、家居用品和健康等成長類別的普及。提供Graphic Packaging一貫的更循環、更實用、更便捷的包裝解決方案。
My priority here is to accelerate the speed of commercialization and ensure that our resources are focused on the most promising opportunities. With a broad portfolio that spans every gross real both with brands and private label as well as food service prioritizing where we put our resources is essential to drive real value creation.
我目前的首要任務是加快商業化進程,確保我們的資源集中在最有前景的機會上。我們擁有涵蓋所有毛利的廣泛產品組合,包括品牌、自有品牌以及餐飲服務,因此,優先考慮資源投入方向對於創造真正的價值至關重要。
We aim to be the first choice for our customers and believe that with innovation product quality and exceptional customer service, we have the right to win in a more normalized macro environments. Finally, the key pillars of our capital allocation strategy are one, reducing our leverage; two, returning capital to shareholders; and three, identifying opportunities to optimize our footprint and portfolio over time. Today, our net leverage sits at 3.8 times. We are taking concrete steps to reduce debt and move towards our target of a grade rating by 2030. And deleveraging is our highest near-term capital allocation priority.
我們的目標是成為客戶的首選,並相信憑藉創新的產品品質和卓越的客戶服務,我們有能力在更規範的宏觀環境中取得成功。最後,我們資本配置策略的關鍵支柱有三點:一是降低槓桿率;二是向股東返還資本;三是尋找機會,隨著時間的推移優化我們的業務佈局和投資組合。目前,我們的淨槓桿率為 3.8 倍。我們正在採取實際措施減少債務,並朝著2030年達到信用評級目標邁進。去槓桿化是我們近期最重要的資本配置優先事項。
We expect to pay down approximately $500 million of debt in 2026, but with the impact that our inventory reduction actions will have on adjusted EBITDA, our leverage ratio is likely to remain elevated. Returning capital to shareholders remains a key priority. We remain committed to returning capital through dividends and opportunistic share repurchase and expect to increase share repurchase activity as leverage declines.
我們預計在 2026 年償還約 5 億美元的債務,但由於我們的庫存削減措施會對調整後的 EBITDA 產生影響,我們的槓桿率可能會保持在高位。向股東返還資本仍是首要任務。我們仍致力於透過分紅和擇機回購股票來回報資本,並預期隨著槓桿率的下降,股票回購活動將會增加。
Lastly, we will look for opportunities to optimize our footprint and our portfolio, ensuring that capital and management attention are focused on the areas where we have durable competitive advantage and attractive growth opportunity. The common thread across all of this is disciplined. By improving execution and cash generation, we will create a much stronger balance sheet that will provide the flexibility to allocate capital in a way that creates long-term value for shareholders.
最後,我們將尋找機會來優化我們的業務佈局和投資組合,確保資本和管理精力集中在我們擁有持久競爭優勢和有吸引力的成長機會的領域。貫穿這一切的共同點是自律。透過提高執行力和現金流,我們將打造更強大的資產負債表,從而能夠靈活地配置資本,為股東創造長期價值。
With that context, I'll turn it over to Chuck to walk through our fourth quarter and full year results in [YAB].
有了這些背景訊息,接下來我將把麥克風交給查克,讓他來介紹我們第四季和全年的業績。[YAB]。
Charles Lischer - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Charles Lischer - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Thank you, Robert. To slide 13, I will begin with a summary of our fourth quarter and full year financial results. In the fourth quarter, net sales were $2.1 billion, basically flat year-over-year, driven by volumes and pricing, which were both down slightly less than 1% and more than offset by a $40 million foreign exchange benefit. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $311 million, as discussed in earlier quarters, the pressure on adjusted EBITDA reflects a combination of unusual competitive pricing and softer package volumes, which together reduced adjusted EBITDA by approximately $40 million versus the year ago quarter.
謝謝你,羅伯特。第 13 張投影片,我將首先概述我們第四季和全年的財務表現。第四季淨銷售額為 21 億美元,與去年同期基本持平,主要受銷量和價格下滑的影響,這兩項指標均略微下降了不到 1%,但被 4000 萬美元的外匯收益完全抵消。本季調整後 EBITDA 為 3.11 億美元,正如前幾季所討論的那樣,調整後 EBITDA 面臨的壓力反映了異常激烈的競爭定價和疲軟的包裝銷量,這兩方面加起來使調整後 EBITDA 比去年同期減少了約 4000 萬美元。
Commodity and other operating cost deflation were in a similar range along with the negative performance as a result of the production curtailment decisions we made during the quarter to manage inventory Foreign exchange was an $8 million curtail plant. For the full year, net sales were $8.6 billion, down approximately 2%. It got the divestiture time for $150 million of the $190 million decrease. Price was an approximately 1% headwind and volumes were basically flat, while FX was a $57 million tailwind. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was approximately $1.4 billion.
商品和其他營運成本通縮幅度相近,同時由於本季為管理庫存而做出的減產決定,業績也出現下滑。外匯損失高達 800 萬美元。全年淨銷售額為 86 億美元,下降約 2%。它獲得了1.5億美元的資產剝離時間,這筆剝離原本計劃減少1.9億美元的資產。價格方面存在約 1% 的不利因素,成交量基本持平,而外匯方面則存在 5700 萬美元的順風。全年調整後 EBITDA 約 14 億美元。
Price and volume were a combined $174 million headwind and that performance of $59 million was not enough to offset commodity input and operating cost deflation of approximately $150 million. That performance was lower than normal as a result of production curtailment decisions we made primarily in the fourth quarter.
價格和銷售量合計造成了 1.74 億美元的不利影響,而 5,900 萬美元的業績不足以抵消約 1.5 億美元的商品投入和營運成本通貨緊縮。由於我們在第四季度主要採取了減產措施,導致業績低於正常水準。
The adjusted divestiture reduced adjusted EBITDA by $30 million and foreign exchange was a $13 million tailwind. Adjusted EPS for the full year was $1.80, and we ended the year with a net leverage of 3.8 times and reflecting the headwinds to EBITDA investments at Waco and our decision to repurchase more than 2% of shares outstanding during 2025.
調整後的資產剝離使調整後的 EBITDA 減少了 3000 萬美元,而外匯帶來了 1300 萬美元的利多。全年調整後每股收益為 1.80 美元,年末淨槓桿率為 3.8 倍,這反映了 Waco EBITDA 投資面臨的不利因素以及我們決定在 2025 年回購超過 2% 的流通股。
Slide 14 lays on current expectations for 2026. We expect net sales in the range of $8.4 billion to $8.6 billion, which assumes volumes in the range of down 1% to up 1%, including the benefit of innovation sales growth which is expected to be approximately 2% of sales.
第 14 張投影片闡述了對 2026 年的當前預期。我們預期淨銷售額在 84 億美元至 86 億美元之間,假設銷售量在下降 1% 到上升 1% 之間,其中包括創新銷售成長帶來的收益,預計創新銷售成長將佔銷售額的 2% 左右。
That implies market volumes down approximately 2% at the midpoint, reflecting our expectation of continued inflationary pressure and ongoing affordability challenges in the consumer staples markets. While we do not comment on future pricing expectations, our guidance assumes a similar level of competitive pressure packaging pricing as we saw in the fourth quarter and includes the expected impact of recent third-party announcements.
這意味著市場成交量在中間價位下降了約 2%,反映出我們對消費必需品市場持續面臨通膨壓力和持續的購買力挑戰的預期。雖然我們不對未來的定價預期發表評論,但我們的指導意見假設包裝定價面臨與第四季度類似的競爭壓力,並且包含了近期第三方公告的預期影響。
Together, these represent $150 million headwind across 2026 and at the midpoint of our guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $1.50 billion to $1.25 billion on a reported basis and $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion on a pro forma basis, excluding the temporary impact of production curtailments related to our actions to remove approximately $260 million paperboard and finished goods inventory in 2026. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance range also assumes a restoration of incentive compensation programs. roughly $100 million figure represents approximately 5% of Graphic Packaging's total compensation costs and impacts of over 2,000 employees.
這些因素加起來意味著到 2026 年將面臨 1.5 億美元的不利影響,而這正處於我們預期範圍的中點。經調整的 EBITDA 預計按報告基準計算在 15 億美元至 12.5 億美元之間,按備考基準計算在 12 億美元至 14 億美元之間,不包括因我們在 2026 年清除約 2.6 億美元的紙板和成品庫存而導致的產量削減的暫時影響。我們調整後的 EBITDA 預期範圍也假設激勵性薪酬計畫已恢復。約 1 億美元的數字約佔 Graphic Packaging 總薪資成本的 5%,影響超過 2,000 名員工。
Given performance that was below expectations in both 2024 and 2025, incentive compensation awards were well below plan in 2024 and effectively zero in 2025. A return to more normal incentive compensation, assuming that we reach our performance targets is important to employee retention and attracting talent.
鑑於 2024 年和 2025 年的業績均低於預期,2024 年的激勵性薪酬獎勵遠低於計劃,2025 年的獎勵實際上為零。假設我們能夠達到績效目標,那麼恢復正常的激勵性薪酬對於留住員工和吸引人才至關重要。
Adjusted cash flow is expected to impact sharply upward to 2026 to $700 million to $800 million. This improvement is driven primarily by three factors. First, a step down in capital spending to approximately $450 million. We will be reviewing all significant planned spending to ensure that it delivers appropriate returns; second, the net benefit of our inventory reduction actions as we optimize inventory to our comp production footprint and adapt to market demand realities; and third, improved profitability through our renewed focus on disciplined organic growth, operational excellence and SG&A and other cost reductions.
預計到 2026 年,調整後的現金流將大幅成長至 7 億至 8 億美元。這項進步主要由三個因素驅動。首先,資本支出減少至約 4.5 億美元。我們將審查所有重大計劃支出,以確保其帶來適當的回報;其次,我們將評估庫存削減措施的淨收益,以優化庫存,使其與同業生產規模相匹配,並適應市場需求的實際情況;第三,我們將通過重新專注於穩健的內生增長、卓越運營以及銷售、管理及行政費用和其他成本削減,來提高盈利能力。
I look forward to partnering with the new transformation office that Robert established to improve our processes and better leverage technology NII to drive fixed cost removal, operating cost reductions and productivity initiatives. Adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.75 to $1.15. While we do not generally provide quarterly guidance, we do want to highlight a few factors that are expected to affect the progression of sales and EBITDA in 2026.
我期待與羅伯特建立的新轉型辦公室合作,改進我們的流程,更好地利用技術NII來推動固定成本削減、營運成本降低和生產力提升計劃。調整後每股收益預計在 0.75 美元至 1.15 美元之間。雖然我們通常不提供季度業績指引,但我們想重點介紹一些預計將影響 2026 年銷售額和 EBITDA 成長的因素。
The Normal sales seasonality is more pronounced in submarkets than others, but relatively modest overall. In general, we tend to book something in the range of 23% of full year net sales in the first quarter and 26% in the third quarter, second quarter, modestly higher than fourth quarter.
正常銷售季節性在各個子市場比其他市場更為明顯,但整體而言相對溫和。一般來說,我們傾向於在第一季提列全年淨銷售額的 23%,第三季提列 26%,第二季略高於第四季。
Adjusted EBITDA tends to follow that same pattern before [discrete items]. Scheduled maintenance at our paperboard manufacturing facilities will be heavier in the first half by approximately $15 million, mostly in the second quarter and by about $10 million in the fourth quarter. There is no significant maintenance schedule for the third quarter.
調整後 EBITDA 也往往遵循同樣的模式。[離散項目]。上半年,我們紙板製造廠的計畫維護費用將增加約 1,500 萬美元,主要集中在第二季;第四季將增加約 1,000 萬美元。第三季沒有重要的維護計畫。
The production curtailments to reduce inventory that Robert mentioned, are expected to be heaviest in the first half in the range of $45 million at the midpoint for the first quarter and roughly $40 million in the second quarter. Third quarter curtailment activity is expected to be the lowest since it is generally our busiest quarter. The actions that we are taking to reduce SG&A and other costs and to make operational improvements are expected to be moderately more back-end weighted.
羅伯特提到的為減少庫存而採取的減產措施,預計上半年最為嚴重,第一季中點約為 4,500 萬美元,第二季約為 4,000 萬美元。由於第三季度通常是我們最繁忙的季度,因此預計該季度的減產活動將最低。我們正在採取的降低銷售、管理及行政費用和其他成本以及改善營運的措施,預計會更側重於後端。
And finally, recent severe weather across the Central and Eastern United States impacted operations at several facilities. While we don't have a final tally our best estimate of the impact on first quarter adjusted EBITDA is in the range of $20 million to $30 million. Taken together, normal seasonality and these discrete items implied that first quarter adjusted EBITDA be in the range of $200 million to $240 million. We expect first half adjusted EBITDA to be roughly 40% to 45% of full year adjusted EBITDA. And while we expect our effective tax rate to be in the range of 25% for the full year, our first quarter tax rate will likely be slightly higher than in subsequent quarters.
最後,近期美國中部和東部地區的惡劣天氣也影響了多家工廠的運作。雖然我們還沒有最終統計結果,但我們對第一季調整後 EBITDA 的影響的最佳估計在 2000 萬美元至 3000 萬美元之間。綜合考慮正常的季節性因素和這些離散項目,第一季調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2 億美元至 2.4 億美元之間。我們預計上半年調整後 EBITDA 約為全年調整後 EBITDA 的 40% 至 45%。雖然我們預計全年實際稅率將在 25% 左右,但第一季的稅率可能會略高於後續季度。
Slide 15 walks through the key drivers of the year-over-year adjusted EBITDA change and a bridge to our 2026 adjusted cash flow target of $700 million to $800 million. Starting from $1.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2025, there are several moving pieces were highlighting. First, the incentive compensation that I mentioned earlier was not earned in 2025.
第 15 張投影片詳細介紹了同比調整 EBITDA 變化的關鍵驅動因素,並為我們實現 2026 年 7 億至 8 億美元的調整後現金流目標搭建了橋樑。從 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 達到 14 億美元開始,我們將重點放在幾個動態因素上。首先,我前面提到的激勵性薪酬不是在 2025 年獲得的。
Second, as noted earlier, price and volume outcomes are assumed to be negative overall, reflecting the Zoomer affordability challenge and unusual competitive pressure in packaging pricing along with the impact of announced reporting price changes and bleach paperboard.
其次,如前所述,價格和銷售結果總體上被認為是負面的,這反映了Zoomer的負擔能力挑戰和包裝定價方面不尋常的競爭壓力,以及已公佈的報告價格變化和漂白紙板的影響。
Third, the items over which we have the most control in our performance, including the benefits from Waco and SG&A reductions, partially offset by January weather and production impacts add between $100 million and $150 million.
第三,我們能夠最大程度控制的業績項目,包括韋科事件和銷售、一般及行政費用的減少帶來的收益,部分被一月份的天氣和生產影響所抵消,這些收益增加了 1 億至 1.5 億美元。
These gains will be partially offset by the onetime production curtailment impact as we reduce inventory levels. The actions we are taking to reduce inventory will generate cash flow in 2026 that do not reflect our normalized earnings per taken together, these factors are expected to result in 2026 adjusted EBITDA of between $1.05 billion and $1.250 billion approximately $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion on a normalized basis.
由於庫存水準降低,一次性減產的影響將部分抵銷這些收益。我們正在採取的減少庫存的措施將在 2026 年產生現金流,但這些現金流並不能反映我們正常的每股盈餘。綜合考慮這些因素,預計 2026 年調整後的 EBITDA 將在 10.5 億美元至 12.5 億美元之間,按正常水平計算約為 12 億美元至 14 億美元。
On the right side of the page, we provide a bridge from expected 2026 adjusted EBITDA to expected 2026 adjusted free cash flow. The largest contributor to the incremental free cash flow to 2026 is capital expenditures, which are expected to decline to approximately $450 million. Additional contributors to 2026 adjusted cash flow expectations included in that working release from inventory reduction and lower cash taxes as a result of the 2025 tax law changes.
在頁面右側,我們提供了從 2026 年預期調整後 EBITDA 到 2026 年預期調整後自由現金流的過渡資訊。到 2026 年,新增自由現金流的最大貢獻者是資本支出,預計將下降至約 4.5 億美元。2026 年調整後現金流量預期的其他貢獻因素包括庫存減少和 2025 年稅法變更導致的現金稅減少。
Incentive compensation is noncash in 2026 as it would be paid in 2027. Cash interest is expected to be in the range of $255 million to $275 million and other working capital and cash items are expected to be a source of cash of approximately $5 million at the midpoint.
2026 年的激勵性薪酬為非現金形式,將於 2027 年支付。預計現金利息將在 2.55 億美元至 2.75 億美元之間,其他營運資金和現金項目預計將在中間值處提供約 500 萬美元的現金。
As Robert mentioned, our highest near-term capital allocation priority is to reduce debt given our current leverage position. We expect to pay down approximately $500 million of debt in 2026, which will put us on the path to an investment-grade credit rating by 2030. We remain committed to return capital through dividends and opportunistic share repurchase activity and expect to increase share repurchase activity as leverage declines.
正如羅伯特所提到的,鑑於我們目前的槓桿水平,我們近期最重要的資本配置優先事項是降低債務。我們預計在 2026 年償還約 5 億美元的債務,這將使我們走上 2030 年獲得投資等級信用評級的道路。我們仍致力於透過分紅和擇機回購股票活動來回報資本,並預期隨著槓桿率的下降,股票回購活動將會增加。
In summary, 2025 reflected a challenging operating environment and also represents the final year of heavy investment. We're taking actions to optimize the company, drive operational efficiencies and reduce inventory. We are entering a period where we expect will be defined by strong free cash flow generation, significant balance sheet improvement and disciplined growth.
總而言之,2025 年反映了充滿挑戰的經營環境,同時也是大規模投資的最後一年。我們正在採取措施優化公司運營,提高營運效率,並減少庫存。我們即將進入一個以強勁的自由現金流產生、顯著的資產負債表改善和穩健成長為特徵的時期。
With that, I'll turn it back to Robert.
這樣,我就把麥克風交還給羅伯特了。
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Chuck. Graphic Packaging is a strong company with a world-class asset base, deep customer relationships and leading positions across attractive end markets. Our mid- to long-term shareholder value creation plan is clear. We will enhance profitability by optimizing our cost structure and driving greater operational efficiency. We will generate significant free cash flow through our actions to reduce inventory and reduce capital spending.
謝謝你,查克。Graphic Packaging 是一家實力雄厚的公司,擁有世界一流的資產基礎、深厚的客戶關係以及在極具吸引力的終端市場中的領先地位。我們的中長期股東價值創造計畫很明確。我們將透過優化成本結構和提高營運效率來提升獲利能力。我們將透過減少庫存和降低資本支出的措施,產生可觀的自由現金流。
We will focus on disciplined organic growth and deliver exceptional customer service. We will reduce debt on our path to investment grade and return capital to shareholders through our dividend and opportunistic stock repurchase.
我們將專注於穩健的自然成長,並提供卓越的客戶服務。我們將努力降低債務,以達到投資級水平,並透過分紅和擇機回購股票的方式向股東返還資本。
And after a thorough overview, we will work to optimize our resources to ensure they are focused where we can create the greatest value for our shareholders. With that, operator, let's open it up for questions.
經過全面評估後,我們將努力優化資源配置,確保資源集中用於能夠為股東創造最大價值的地方。操作員,那麼,我們開始接受提問吧。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Matt Roberts, Raymond James.
(操作說明)Matt Roberts,Raymond James。
Matt Roberts - Analyst
Matt Roberts - Analyst
Robert, Chuck, good morning. Robert, welcome, and congratulations on the role. So when you've joined Robert, the board noted your strong CPG background and the timing, of course, coincide with Vision 2030. Those numbers are revised today. Ultimately, as you embark on that 90-day review or look to your longer-term targets like, what makes your approach different and what has come before a graphic packaging you say more operationally focused to reach free cash flow projections or our commercial efforts more of a priority to ensure you're able to reach flat volumes in 2026?
羅伯特,查克,早安。羅伯特,歡迎你,並祝賀你獲得這個職位。所以,當你加入 Robert 時,董事會注意到你強大的消費品產業背景,而且時機當然也與「2030 年願景」相吻合。這些數字今天進行了修訂。最終,當您開始進行 90 天審查或展望更長期的目標時,例如,是什麼使您的方法與眾不同,以及在圖形包裝之前發生了什麼,您說更注重運營以實現自由現金流預測,或者我們的商業努力更優先於確保您能夠在 2026 年實現持平的銷量?
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Matt. Thank you for welcoming me. Yes, I do want to just recap a bit of my background. I did spend about 30 years in consumer brands, as a customer of Graphic, not only in North America but also in Europe, South America and Australia. So I bring a bit of a global perspective on the business.
謝謝你,馬特。謝謝你們的熱情歡迎。是的,我想簡單回顧一下我的背景。我從事消費品牌產業約 30 年,身為 Graphic 的客戶,我的業務範圍不僅遍及北美,也遍及歐洲、南美和澳洲。因此,我為這個行業帶來了一些全球視野。
And I worked at Procter & Gamble I have a background with complex businesses with global manufacturing and supply chains and have a lot of experience of packaging design, procurement, and some prior experience, as you know, on tissue with tower manufacturing and ran the [Millicent Tissue Towel Mill] in Australia when it was running Kimberly-Clark Stradale.
我曾在寶潔公司工作,擁有複雜的業務背景,涉及全球製造和供應鏈,在包裝設計、採購方面經驗豐富,而且如您所知,之前在紙巾塔式製造方面也有一些經驗,並且在運營金佰利斯特拉代爾公司時,我曾負責澳大利亞的[米利森特紙巾廠]。
With regards to the approach I plan to focus on cost reduction, productivity, operational excellence. We want to make sure we deliver a really good experience to our customers. I've had a number of calls with key customers over the last couple of weeks, including yesterday, I spoke to two customers.
在方法上,我計劃專注於降低成本、提高生產力、實現卓越營運。我們希望確保為客戶提供真正優質的體驗。過去兩週,我與一些重要客戶進行了多次通話,包括昨天,我與兩位客戶進行了交談。
These are customers across food service, beverages and food, grocery, and they really need us to help them restore growth, and therefore, we need to stay very close to that. I'll bring up more disciplined approach to CapEx going forward and a focus on free cash flow generation to create value for our shareholders.
這些客戶涵蓋餐飲服務、飲料和食品、雜貨等行業,他們確實需要我們幫助他們恢復成長,因此,我們需要與他們保持密切聯繫。我將提出更嚴謹的資本支出管理方法,並專注於自由現金流的產生,為股東創造價值。
So with regards to customer centricity, I do believe in a market-backed approach and really partnering with our customers. We'll do a bit of a review of our manufacturing footprint to understand where we can consolidate and drive productivity. We do have to defend where we have the right to win where we have competitive advantages and focus the resources behind the core.
所以,就以客戶為中心而言,我確實相信以市場為導向的方法,並真正與我們的客戶建立夥伴關係。我們將對我們的生產佈局進行一些審查,以了解我們可以在哪些方面進行整合並提高生產效率。我們必須捍衛我們有權獲勝的領域,捍衛我們擁有競爭優勢的領域,並將資源集中投入核心業務。
We have to define what that core is. We have a lot of businesses that around the world in different geographies that we have to understand better. And we'll do a selective, very selective review of the portfolio. Of course, the mills are where the money is made. We will make sure that the mills and manufacturing facility stay state-of-the-art and are fully utilized.
我們必須先明確這個核心是什麼。我們在世界各地不同地區有很多業務,我們需要更了解這些業務。我們將對投資組合進行選擇性的、非常有選擇性的審查。當然,工廠才是賺錢的地方。我們將確保工廠和製造設施保持最先進水平並充分利用。
Matt Roberts - Analyst
Matt Roberts - Analyst
It's all very helpful. Thank you, Robert. Look forward to working with you and seeing the progress there. For my follow-up, if I could ask about the inventory reduction. I think it was 15% of sales to 20% to 15%.
這一切都很有幫助。謝謝你,羅伯特。期待與您合作,並看到那裡的進展。我想進一步詢問一下庫存減少的情況。我認為是銷售額的 15% 到 20% 再到 15%。
I think that number implies about 200,000 tons. How are you able to balance that much coming out while Waco continues to ramp, and given that inventory curtailment is a onetime benefit in '26 and then cash and the incentive comp also hits in '27. What other elements are needed to bridge to that $700 million figure again in 2027?
我認為這個數字大約意味著20萬噸。鑑於 Waco 繼續擴大規模,庫存削減是 2026 年的一次性福利,而現金和激勵補償也將在 2027 年到賬,您如何平衡如此多的支出?要再次在 2027 年達到 7 億美元的目標,還需要哪些因素?
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Just let me clarify the inventory reduction program. It will primarily focus on recycled bleached and cupstock. We're also reducing some fixes inventory where demand fell short of expectations. And in the leaks paperboard use production and demand are a good balance.
是的。讓我來解釋一下庫存削減計劃。它將主要集中在回收漂白紙和杯紙。由於部分產品的需求未達預期,我們也正在減少一些維修庫存。而從洩漏資料來看,紙板的使用、生產和需求之間達到了良好的平衡。
It's just really the inventory that's too high. And I want to emphasize that our customer service is a priority and will not be disrupted by inventory reduction actions. Let me pass to Chuck financial details.
真正的問題是庫存太高了。我想強調的是,我們的客戶服務是我們的首要任務,不會受到庫存削減措施的影響。財務細節交給查克處理。
Charles Lischer - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Charles Lischer - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yes. Matt, this is Chuck. So on the bridge to the $700 million, as you pointed out, a lot going on in cash flow and EBITDA while we provided the detailed bridges that we did. But before I talk all the way about post 2027, I want to just reiterate the confidence in 2026, we've outlined the levers there. We see those levers and have the confidence that we'll be able to pull those levers to hit the $700 million to $800 million range in two will continue to benefit from the tax benefits and there'll be additional inventory reduction.
是的。馬特,我是查克。所以,正如你所指出的,在達到 7 億美元目標的過程中,現金流和 EBITDA 方面發生了很多變化,而我們也提供了詳細的過渡方案。但在我全面討論 2027 年以後的事情之前,我想重申一下我們對 2026 年的信心,我們已經概述了那一年的槓桿作用。我們看到了這些槓桿,並且有信心能夠利用這些槓桿在兩年內達到 7 億至 8 億美元的目標,我們將繼續受益於稅收優惠,並且庫存將進一步減少。
And then post 2027, there really some negatives and positives that have been some of the items that come that happened in '26 recurring. But for example, the tax benefits and then we have interest rates that are reducing. And as Robert pointed out earlier, we're going to be continuing to push on CapEx and other items in addition to normal EBITDA growth. So we can take you through details more of that off-line.
2027 年之後,確實存在一些負面和正面因素,其中一些因素是 2026 年發生的一些事情再次出現。例如,稅收優惠,以及不斷下降的利率。正如羅伯特之前指出的那樣,除了正常的 EBITDA 成長之外,我們將繼續推進資本支出和其他項目。所以我們可以線下再詳細講解。
Operator
Operator
Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.
甘沙姆·潘賈比,貝爾德。
Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst
Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst
Thanks, operator. Best wishes to the two of you in your respective roles. Robert, maybe just to start off with you, just given your background at the CPG level and your unique lens, if you will, how do you think this pricing dynamic situation in paperboard in the US will play out for the industry over the next couple of years? What can you do internally to sort of navigate through this period because presumably customers will be pretty opportunistic as it relates to substitution, et cetera, just given the change in the pricing dynamics?
謝謝接線生。祝二位在各自的崗位上一切順利。羅伯特,或許我們可以先從你開始,鑑於你在消費品產業的背景和你獨特的視角,你認為未來幾年美國紙板價格的這種動態變化將如何影響整個產業?鑑於價格動態的變化,客戶在替代品等方面可能會非常善於把握機會,因此,企業內部可以採取哪些措施來應對這段時期?
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Thanks, Ghansham. The two grades that matter most to us are recycled and unbleached. And both of those markets are in good balance. You know that we are very highly integrated as a company.
是的。謝謝你,甘沙姆。對我們來說,最重要的兩個等級是再生棉和未漂白棉。這兩個市場目前都處於良好的平衡狀態。您知道我們公司內部的整合程度非常高。
And our smallest business is bleached paperboard, which is oversupplied with substantial new capacity that's come into the market, and the demand outlook is trending down. So the current prices, we don't believe that bleached paperboard producers earning a good return on capital.
我們最小的業務是漂白紙板,由於市場上新增了大量產能,導致漂白紙板供應過剩,且需求前景呈現下降趨勢。因此,以目前的價格來看,我們認為漂白紙板生產商無法獲得良好的資本回報。
As I said, we have very high integration in our bleach business. So our margins tend to be higher, but are still a little bit below cost of capital. I think the beach markets are less integrated, so the economics are a little tougher and the overcapacity is impacting the markets. And so that's where I am on that.
正如我所說,我們的漂白業務一體化程度非常高。因此,我們的利潤率往往較高,但仍略低於資本成本。我認為海灘市場的整合程度較低,因此經濟情勢更為嚴峻,產能過剩正在影響市場。這就是我對這件事的看法。
Chuck, any thoughts from you?
查克,你有什麼想法嗎?
Charles Lischer - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Charles Lischer - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yes. I think you saw that in the APA data that came out in the last week that I think you can see recycled and unbleached is generally aligned to demand and lease up in the weakness that you see there is consistent with what Robert talked about. So I think it's all, as Robert laid out.
是的。我認為你在上周公布的APA數據中已經看到了這一點,數據顯示,回收和未漂白木材的需求總體上與疲軟時期的租賃需求相符,這與羅伯特所說的情況一致。所以我覺得一切都如羅伯特所說的。
Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst
Ghansham Panjabi - Senior Research Analyst
Okay. And then Robert, do you kind of step back a bit. Obviously, a lot going on this year and next and so on. But if you look at the company's EBITDA margin profile, 2023, 19.9% as your slide deck lays out, obviously, a huge deterioration that you're projecting over that time period through 2026. Is there anything structurally having changed in the industry that you cannot get back to the sort of high teens EBITDA margin threshold? Or was 2023 just a unique situation?
好的。然後羅伯特,你是不是應該稍微退後一步?顯然,今年、明年以及未來幾年都會有很多事情發生。但如果你看一下公司的 EBITDA 利潤率情況,正如你的幻燈片所示,2023 年為 19.9%,顯然,你預測到 2026 年這段時間裡,利潤率將大幅下降。產業結構是否發生了某些變化,導致無法恢復到 EBITDA 利潤率接近 10% 的水平?或者說,2023年只是個特殊情況?
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We think that, over the long run, we will be restoring our EBITDA margin to the higher teens level as a result of restored demand cost management productivity. So we're pretty confident that we will be managing it back towards the original Vision 2030 level. But it's too early to tell exactly where that's going to be.
我們認為,從長遠來看,隨著需求成本管理和生產力的恢復,我們的 EBITDA 利潤率將恢復到 10% 以上水準。因此,我們相當有信心將其恢復到最初的「2030願景」水平。但現在判斷具體地點還為時過早。
Operator
Operator
Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital.
Arun Viswanathan,RBC Capital。
Arun Viswanathan - Analyst
Arun Viswanathan - Analyst
Great. I guess I'll add my congratulations on the new roles as well. Yes, I guess just kind of going along a similar line of questioning, maybe we can get your perspective and insight on what you're hearing from your customers. Specifically, are they talking about rationalization, changing packaging strategy.
偉大的。我也想對他們榮任新職表示祝賀。是的,我想沿著類似的思路提問,或許我們可以了解您對客戶回饋的看法和見解。具體來說,他們指的是合理化、改變包裝策略嗎?
Harry, what are you hearing on how they're dealing with [Maha] and maybe other changes to consumer behavior Obviously, we've seen some relatively lower volumes on the food side and food service. And are you hearing any kind of customer response to address that?
哈里,你聽說他們是如何應對[Maha]的,以及消費者行為的其他變化嗎?顯然,我們看到食品和餐飲服務的銷售量相對較低。你們有沒有收到任何針對此問題的顧客回饋?
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. Thanks, Arun. We do have very extensive conversations with our customers across food, beverage, grocery, various other industries and food service. With regards to consumer packaged goods, customers are really highly focused on cost right now and driving rationalization in the number of packaging executions to reduce downtime and changeovers in the manufacturing process. So there is a need for simplification to drive basically COGS for their cost of goods and our packaging complexity is part of that.
是的。謝謝你,阿倫。我們與食品、飲料、雜貨、其他各種行業以及餐飲服務業的客戶進行了非常廣泛的交流。就消費品包裝而言,客戶目前非常關注成本,並致力於減少包裝執行次數,以減少生產過程中的停機時間和換型次數。因此,我們需要簡化流程,降低商品成本,而包裝的複雜性正是其中的一部分。
So the more we can simplify our assortment, whether that's a specific execution in the beverage industry or in food industry, the better. They also continue to focus on share of shelf. Share of SKU because they want to gain volume share at retail. And a lot of the CPG companies and some of them that I've spoken to are reviewing their pack price architecture at the right price points with smaller portions and lower consumer prices.
因此,無論是在飲料業或食品業,我們越能簡化產品種類,就越好。他們也繼續關注貨架份額。他們希望獲得零售銷售份額,因此需要增加 SKU 的份額。許多消費品公司,包括我接觸過的一些公司,都在重新審視他們的包裝價格結構,以更小的份量和更低的消費者價格,找到合適的價格點。
The other trend we see is that there's a lot of private label embracing innovation quickly, and they continue to gain momentum. Even in some categories that were historically insulated from private label growth. And customers, they really want packaging solutions now that reduce material usage that improve palletization simplify the number of formats and complexity, but they also want very high-quality graphics that prove shelf appeal.
我們看到的另一個趨勢是,許多自有品牌正在迅速擁抱創新,而且它們正持續獲得發展動能。即使在一些歷史上與自有品牌成長隔絕的類別中也是如此。現在的客戶確實想要能夠減少材料使用、改善托盤化、簡化規格和複雜性的包裝解決方案,但他們也想要能夠證明貨架吸引力的高品質圖形。
So they are not going to compromise on the way to get the shelf, when you get the first moment of truth. There is another big trend, which is -- it starts in Europe, but it's coming to the US, which is the single-use plastic reduction. That continues to be front and center of discussions with the large global players. Reduction of plastic in the US specifically reduction of foam to improve the sustainability profile of our customers.
所以,在關鍵時刻到來之前,他們不會為了搶佔貨架而妥協。還有一個很大的趨勢,那就是——它起源於歐洲,但正在蔓延到美國——那就是減少一次性塑膠的使用。這仍然是與全球大型企業討論的重點。減少美國塑膠的使用,特別是減少泡沫塑膠的使用,以提高我們客戶的永續發展水準。
With regards to food service, affordability has really created a challenge for the quick service restaurants, and they need to innovate and stay competitive. Both have food and beverage and meal solutions. So they want to hit hot price points.
就餐飲服務而言,價格因素確實為快餐店帶來了挑戰,他們需要不斷創新才能保持競爭力。兩家公司都提供食品飲料和餐飲解決方案。所以他們想抓住價格熱點。
They want to make sure that they are competitive across the board. Marketing and thematic promotions continue to be important. That's where we come in with our thematic packaging and our ability to react quickly to their orders. So we're starting to see some improvements with recent large-scale promotions. And I think the food service opportunity is substantial and plastic and foam placement will continue.
他們希望確保自己在各方面都具有競爭力。行銷和主題推廣仍然非常重要。而我們則憑藉主題包裝和快速回應訂單的能力來解決這個問題。因此,我們開始看到近期大規模促銷活動取得了一些成效。我認為餐飲服務業的商機龐大,塑膠和泡沫材料的使用將會持續下去。
So on Europe specifically, innovation is now a key driver there because of the regulatory changes against plastic. In North America, we're seeing that more and more consumers for paper cups over plastic info.
因此,就歐洲而言,由於塑膠監管政策的改變,創新現在已成為關鍵驅動力。在北美,我們看到越來越多的消費者選擇紙杯而不是塑膠杯。
Arun Viswanathan - Analyst
Arun Viswanathan - Analyst
Comprehensive answer. I guess, just as a quick follow-up, back on to the SBS question. So I understand that it's a very small grade for you. But I guess our perception -- or my perception is that the oversupply is kind of also pressuring unleached and maybe customers are getting the option to switch into SBS because there's not much premium there. So how do you -- do you see that as well?
詳盡的回答。我想,作為一個簡單的後續問題,讓我們回到SBS的問題。所以我知道這對你來說只是很小的分數。但我認為,我們的看法——或者說我的看法——是供應過剩也給未釋放的壓力帶來了壓力,也許客戶可以選擇轉而使用 SBS,因為那裡的溢價並不高。那麼,你──你也這麼認為嗎?
And do you see that kind of oversupply in SBS continuing to weigh on other grades as well? Or is it not really impactful?
你認為SBS的這種供應過剩情況是否也會對其他等級的供應造成壓力?或者它其實沒有太大影響?
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's a well-known fact in the end. There's no capacity of bleached. And there is -- it is the most fragmented of the paperboard range, as you know, and periods like this had to resolve themselves usually through capacity rationalization, downtime, consolidation. But remember, we primarily sell finished packaging and have a high degree of integration. And we do see some price pressure on recycled packaging for bleached producers.
這最終是一個眾所周知的事實。沒有漂白能力。而且,如你所知,它是紙板產品系列中最分散的,而像這樣的時期通常需要透過產能合理化、停工和整合來解決。但請記住,我們主要銷售成品包裝,並且擁有高度的整合。我們確實看到漂白生產商在回收包裝方面面臨一些價格壓力。
They're looking for volume, but we haven't lost volume, and we have to be competitive with package price, and that can cause a little bit of margin pressure. And we also know that leach packaging selling at the price recycled. Long term is not sustainable. It's more expensive to produce and it doesn't in the cost of capital returns.
他們追求銷量,但我們的銷量並沒有下降,而且我們必須在包裝價格上保持競爭力,這可能會造成一些利潤壓力。我們也知道,滲濾包裝的售價與回收包裝的價格相同。長期來看,這種做法無法持續。它的生產成本更高,但資本回報成本卻沒有相應提高。
Now we're focused on driving volume where we have the right to win, and we control what we control. So we are focused on cost spending, exceptional customer service. So that's where we are on that.
現在我們專注於在我們有權獲勝的領域提升銷量,並且我們能夠掌控我們能夠掌控的事物。因此,我們專注於成本控制和卓越的客戶服務。這就是我們目前在這件事上的進展。
Operator
Operator
Lewis Merrick, BNP Paribas.
劉易斯·梅里克,法國巴黎銀行。
Lewis Merrick - Analyst
Lewis Merrick - Analyst
Good morning, Robert, Chuck, Mark. Congratulations on the appointment, Robert. Maybe just going to the portfolio review comments that you had in the deck and in your opening statement, can you just give us a sense or expand on the factors, what you would consider as elements which would determine a core or noncore asset in your business today?
早安,羅伯特、查克、馬克。恭喜你獲得任命,羅伯特。或許我們可以就您在簡報和開場白中提到的投資組合審查評論做個簡要說明,或者詳細說明一下,您認為在當今您的業務中,哪些因素可以決定一項資產是核心資產還是非核心資產?
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
But it could be quite long. Very good question. Thank you for the question. Thanks for coming. Look, I'm a big believer in the focus on the core as part of any company strategy.
但這可能會持續很長時間。問得好。謝謝你的提問。謝謝光臨。我堅信,任何公司策略都應該注重核心業務。
When you have a strong growing for you with I think where we may have to provide a bit more perspective on all of the businesses we own around the globe that may or may not be core to the operation. We're looking at an initial review of the business portfolio of the operations and our global footprint. And we want to really focus on future growth and value creation and understand where we have the right to win.
當你的業務強勁成長時,我認為我們可能需要從更宏觀的角度來審視我們在全球擁有的所有業務,這些業務可能對營運至關重要,也可能無關。我們正在對業務組合和全球佈局進行初步審查。我們希望真正專注於未來的成長和價值創造,並了解我們有權在哪些方面取得成功。
Let me give you an example of very obvious places, which are part of our core. Our North America, Europe, food and beverage business is obviously the biggest part of our company. No question that we have to play there. But there may be some smaller businesses that we have an opportunity to review. We want a durable competitive advantage, and we want synergies.
讓我舉一個非常明顯的例子,這些地方是我們核心的一部分。顯然,我們在北美、歐洲的食品和飲料業務是我們公司最大的組成部分。毫無疑問,我們必須在那裡比賽。但我們或許有機會對一些規模較小的企業進行檢討。我們想要持久的競爭優勢,我們也想要綜效。
We were in high duration rates in our -- between our paperboard manufacturing and our conversion factories, converting factories where we make the finished packaging. With regards to looking at everything we do, we're also going to look at zero-based budgeting and particularly at CapEx, it's fair to take a fresh look at all we do. We'll take a comprehensive look in the context of what is really a changing market.
我們的生產週期很長——從我們的紙板製造廠到我們的加工廠,加工廠是我們生產成品包裝的地方。在檢視我們所做的一切時,我們也要檢視零基預算,特別是資本支出,重新檢視我們所做的一切是合理的。我們將從不斷變化的市場角度進行全面審視。
Consumer dynamics are changing. Certain packages are starting to accelerate. Others are starting to decline. Consumption patterns are evolving as well. And so we need to bring those consumer insights back into our company so that we can align our assets to future growth opportunities.
消費者行為正在改變。某些軟體包的傳輸速度開始加快。其他一些則開始走下坡路。消費模式也在不斷變化。因此,我們需要將這些消費者洞察帶回公司,以便我們能夠將自身資產與未來的成長機會相匹配。
Now it's very early days. No decisions have been made, and we'll keep you updated as appropriate.
現在還處於非常早期的階段。目前尚未做出任何決定,如有進展,我們將及時通知您。
Lewis Merrick - Analyst
Lewis Merrick - Analyst
Have you and the board had any thoughts as to whether you may look to revisit your dividend this 20266?
您和董事會是否考慮在 2026 年重新審視股利問題?
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Dividend. On dividends -- sorry, I didn't catch it for the first time. So on dividends, as we said in the prepared remarks, our clear most highest near-term priority is debt pay down. And so we will be focused on debt paydown in this term, but we have not committed to a dividend change this year yet. But over time, I would expect to have growing dividends as we talked about in the prepared remarks, and increasing the return to shareholders. But clearly, our near-term priority is to pay down debt given our current leverage ratio.
股利。關於股息——抱歉,我第一次沒聽懂。因此,關於股息,正如我們在準備好的發言稿中所說,我們近期最明確的首要任務是償還債務。因此,本屆政府將專注於償還債務,但我們尚未決定今年是否調整股利。但隨著時間的推移,我預計正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所談到的那樣,股息會不斷增長,股東回報也會不斷提高。但很顯然,鑑於我們目前的槓桿率,我們近期的首要任務是償還債務。
Operator
Operator
Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.
馬克溫特勞布,海港研究夥伴公司。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Welcome, both. Questions, since you did mention that overcapacity in bleached board has been putting downward pressure on finished packaging pricing across your grades. I guess one the questions I have is that if the trade journals show, for instance, CRB prices were to go down or something like that, if to some extent, it's already been reflected the pressures in the business because of overcapacity in SBS, do you get hit a second time? Or can you help us understand how the prices we might see in trade publications can affect what you end up realizing on a go-forward basis?
歡迎兩位。既然您提到漂白紙板產能過剩對貴公司各等級成品包裝的價格造成了下行壓力,那麼我有一些問題。我想問的問題之一是,如果行業期刊顯示,例如,CRB 價格下降之類的,如果這在某種程度上已經反映了 SBS 產能過剩給企業帶來的壓力,那麼你會遭受第二次打擊嗎?或者,您能否幫助我們了解一下,我們在行業出版物中看到的價格會如何影響您未來的實際收益?
Charles Lischer - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Charles Lischer - Interim Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Yes. Mark, this is Chuck. I'll take that. So -- and as you know, we've been seeking to convert many of our contracts over to a cost model and many of our made progress on that. So many of our contracts are no longer tied to publish pricing.
是的。馬克,我是查克。我接受。所以——正如您所知,我們一直在努力將許多合約轉換為成本模式,而我們在這方面取得了許多進展。因此,我們許多合約不再與公開定價掛鉤。
We do still have some contracts that are tied to published pricing and our guide does not reflect any unpublished or unannounced changes in pricing.
我們目前仍有一些合約與已公佈的價格掛鉤,我們的價格指南不反映任何未公佈或未宣布的價格變動。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Okay. And so just to follow up. So if there are changes, is it modest because of the direct impact modest because of the adjustments you've made in your contracts? Or any help you can give? And I recognize if you're not comfortable understood, but figured I'd ask.
好的。所以,我再補充一點。所以,如果確實存在變化,是因為直接影響較小,還是因為你們在合約中所做的調整而導致的變化較小?或者您還能提供什麼協助?我知道如果你覺得不方便也沒關係,但我還是想問。
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, there's several factors. There's timing as to when the price impact would be recognized based on our contracts. And then there's also, of course, offset by the ones that are already on the cost model. And so it's -- there are a lot of moving parts and pieces there to give you specifics around it.
是的,這其中有幾個因素。根據我們的合同,價格影響何時顯現是有時間限制的。當然,還有一些已經納入成本模型的項目可以抵消這些損失。所以,這裡面有很多環節和細節要詳細說明。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Okay. And just one other follow-up then on Waco. I know originally, you had outlined some relatively significant start-up costs, I think, $60 million or something like that. Could you just update us how -- what has happened and how you're reporting that? And it seems like you're just putting that in net productivity now?
好的。關於韋科事件,還有一點後續報導。我知道最初你們曾經列出過一些相對較大的啟動成本,我想大概是 6000 萬美元左右。能否請您簡單說明一下情況-發生了什麼事,以及您是如何報告的?看起來你現在只是把這些都算進淨生產力裡了?
How should I be understanding that?
我該如何理解這句話?
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. So the good news on that, given the start-up, really strong start-up of Waco that our start-up costs came in below and we do not expect any longer sort of cost to continue into 2026. So our start-up costs came in at around $40 million in 2025. And so lower than our original expectation, given the strong startup. And importantly, though, we do put those costs below the line.
是的。好消息是,鑑於 Waco 的啟動非常強勁,我們的啟動成本低於預期,我們預計到 2026 年不會再有任何成本。因此,到 2025 年,我們的啟動成本約為 4000 萬美元。因此,考慮到強勁的啟動勢頭,這個數字低於我們最初的預期。但重要的是,我們確實將這些成本計入了最終成本。
And so that doesn't roll up into performance, it does roll with them into the items that are below adjusted EBITDA and some that information that was provided to you in the previous deck was just information only, but that is something that of course, impacts catching and came in stronger. And it is a zero in 2026.
因此,這不會直接影響業績,而是會影響到調整後 EBITDA 以下的項目,以及之前演示文稿中提供的一些信息,這些信息僅僅是參考,但這當然會影響業績,而且表現會更強勁。到 2026 年,這個數字將為零。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Okay. And just on clarify. So the Waco start-up costs were excluded from the adjusted EBITDA number you gave us or included?
好的。還有一點需要澄清。所以,您提供的調整後 EBITDA 資料中是否包含了韋科的啟動成本?
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We're excluded from adjusted EBITDA.
我們不計入調整後的 EBITDA。
Operator
Operator
Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo.
Gabe Hajde,富國銀行。
Gabe Hajde - Analyst
Gabe Hajde - Analyst
Good morning. Welcome. I had a question about seasonal working capital changes and then obviously the very concerted efforts to reduce inventory seems like a decent amount of that production will hit and the reduced production will hit in the first half. But normally, you consume cash and working capital in the first quarter.
早安.歡迎。我有一個關於季節性營運資金變化的問題,顯然,為減少庫存而採取的集中措施似乎會造成相當大的產量下降,而產量下降的影響將在上半年顯現。但通常情況下,現金和營運資金會在第一季消耗掉。
And if I look at kind of what you gave us the 40% to 45% of EBITDA earned in the first half, it looks like leverage can, in fact, tick above closer to the mid-4s or higher. Can you talk about that a little bit? And then I have a follow-up.
如果我看一下您給出的上半年 EBITDA 佔 40% 到 45% 的數據,那麼槓桿率實際上可能會略微超過 4 倍中段甚至更高。能稍微談談這方面嗎?然後我還有一個後續問題。
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I think you've identified all the right trends. Historically, our cash flow is strongest in fourth quarter, and that's how it played out in 2025, and we would expect it to play out that way in 2026 as well. I will say the impact in 2020 should be significantly moderated versus where it was in 2025. If you remember, 2025, the heavy spend of Wako was through the first three quarters.
是的。我認為你已經掌握了所有正確的趨勢。從歷史數據來看,我們的現金流在第四季最為強勁,2025 年的情況也是如此,我們預期 2026 年的情況也會如此。我認為,2020 年的影響力應該會比 2025 年的影響顯著減弱。如果你還記得的話,2025 年,Wako 的大筆支出集中在前三個季度。
And so you would have seen a much more negative impact or a heavier negative impact on free cash flow in 2025 than what we'll see in 2026. So it will more follow the EBITDA, but it is still -- our cash flow has historically and always been back-end weighted as we build for the season through the summer and then harvest that cash in the back
因此,2025 年自由現金流受到的負面影響或負面影響會比 2026 年更大。因此,它將更多地與 EBITDA 掛鉤,但仍然是——我們的現金流歷來都偏向後端,因為我們會在夏季為旺季做準備,然後在尾聲收穫這些現金。
Gabe Hajde - Analyst
Gabe Hajde - Analyst
Okay. And then the 200,000 tons roughly of inventory reduction this year, obviously, you gave us $1 equivalent. I guess, Chuck, for '27, can you give us a reference point, I think you talked about some moving parts to bridge to the $700 million of free cash flow. But will you still be sort of underproducing next year. And again, it depends on demand. But -- and unlocking some inventory? And if so, do you have an order of magnitude as it sits right now?
好的。然後,今年大約減少了 20 萬噸庫存,顯然,你們給了我們相當於 1 美元的收益。我想,查克,對於 2027 年,你能給我們一個參考點嗎?我想你提到過一些變動因素,以彌補 7 億美元的自由現金流缺口。但明年你們的產量還會持續低於預期嗎?而且,這同樣取決於需求。但是——解鎖一些庫存呢?如果是這樣,您目前能估算出它的數量級嗎?
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We -- and we're not giving 2027 guidance now, so I'll give you the number. But you hit on the key factors, I mean, we are committed to bring inventory down to the target ranges that Robert gave the 15% to 16% target. We would, of course, much prefer that to come out via demand, as you mentioned, then it came out via downtime, but we are indeed committed to bringing it out or to getting it out.
我們——而且我們現在不提供 2027 年的指導意見,所以我只能給你一個數字。但你提到了關鍵因素,我的意思是,我們致力於將庫存降低到羅伯特設定的 15% 到 16% 的目標範圍內。當然,我們更希望它能像你提到的那樣,透過需求來推出,而不是透過停機時間來推出,但我們確實致力於把它推出來。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. We have reached our allotted time for Q&A. I'll now hand the conference back to Robbert Rietbroek for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
謝謝。問答環節時間已到。現在我將把會議交還給羅伯特·里特布魯克,請他作閉幕致詞。請繼續。
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Robbert Rietbroek - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, operator. I appreciate you joining us on our earnings call today. I'm excited to be here leading this outstanding team that is truly a pivotal time for our company. Graphic Packaging serves markets with attractive subsegments, solid secular trends with the best-in-class assets and a highly talented team. We're a global leader in sustainable consumer packaging.
謝謝接線生。感謝您今天參加我們的財報電話會議。我很榮幸能夠領導這支傑出的團隊,這對我們公司來說確實是一個至關重要的時刻。Graphic Packaging 為具有吸引力的細分市場、穩健的長期發展趨勢、一流的資產和高素質的團隊服務於市場。我們是永續消費品包裝的全球領導者。
Through the actions we're taking, we plan to grow our market share and further strengthen our industry-leading position.
透過我們正在採取的行動,我們計劃擴大市場份額,並進一步鞏固我們在行業中的領先地位。
While I had the opportunity to engage with several of you already, I look forward to connecting with others and to providing ongoing updates on the business and our progress against these priorities. Thank you for your interest in Graphic.
雖然我已經有機會與你們中的一些人交流,但我期待與其他人建立聯繫,並持續向大家報告業務進展以及我們在這些優先事項上取得的進展。感謝您對Graphic的關注。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
謝謝。各位,今天的活動到此結束。您可以暫時斷開連接,祝您有美好的一天。感謝您的參與。