Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day everyone, and welcome to the Graphic Packaging first quarter 2025 earnings call (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mark Connelly, senior Vice President, Investor Strategy and Development. Sir, the floor is yours.

大家好，歡迎參加 Graphic Packaging 2025 年第一季財報電話會議（操作員指示）現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人、投資人策略與發展資深副總裁 Mark Connelly。先生，請您發言。

Good morning and welcome to Graphic Packaging Holding Company's first quarter 2025 earnings call. We have with us today, Mike Doss, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Stephen Scherger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. On this call, we will be referencing our first quarter 2025 earnings presentation, which is available through this webcast and on the investor section of our website at www.graphicpkg.com.

早安，歡迎參加 Graphic Packaging Holding Company 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天和我們在一起的是總裁兼執行長 Mike Doss；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Stephen Scherger。在本次電話會議上，我們將參考我們 2025 年第一季的收益報告，您可以透過本次網路廣播和我們網站 www.graphicpkg.com 的投資者部分來取得該報告。

Today's press release and presentation include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1,995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the factors identified in the release and in our filings with the SEC.

今天的新聞稿和簡報包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素。

Now let me turn the call over to Mike.

現在讓我把電話轉給麥克。

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Graphic packaging is a global leader in sustainable consumer packaging. In the first quarter, our business faced considerable pressure, has already stretched consumers pulled back further. Promotional activity by our customers did not drive meaningful volume improvement, and we experienced significant input cost inflation.

謝謝你，馬克。大家早安，感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。圖形包裝是永續消費包裝的全球領導者。一季度，我們的業務面臨相當大的壓力，消費者的購屋壓力已進一步增加。我們客戶的促銷活動並未帶來顯著的銷售成長，而且我們的投入成本也大幅膨脹。

While these challenges won't be resolved overnight, neither are they long term in nature. We have taken actions to offset higher costs and continue to generate innovation, sales growth that is helping us grow faster than the end markets we serve. Despite near term challenges, we remain well positioned to generate substantial cash flow in the quarters and years ahead.

雖然這些挑戰不會在一夜之間得到解決，但它們本質上也不是長期的。我們已採取行動來抵消更高的成本，並繼續進行創新和銷售成長，這有助於我們比所服務的終端市場成長得更快。儘管面臨近期挑戰，但我們仍有能力在未來幾季和幾年產生大量現金流。

In the first quarter, graphic packaging sales were $2.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $365 million and margins were 17.2%, and adjusted EPS was $0.51.

第一季度，圖形包裝銷售額為21億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.65 億美元，利潤率為 17.2%，調整後的 EPS 為 0.51 美元。

Those results were significantly below our expectations, driven mainly by weaker volumes in the Americas business and broad-based input cost inflation.

這些結果遠低於我們的預期，主要原因是美洲業務量下降和投入成本普遍上漲。

Turning to slide three, our Waco recycled paper board investment is on track for fourth quarter startup. Hiring is effectively complete, and I have been extremely pleased with the quality of the team we've been able to assemble.

翻到第三張投影片，我們的韋科再生紙板投資預計在第四季啟動。招募工作實際上已經完成，我對我們組建的團隊的品質感到非常滿意。

Training is well underway, and as you may remember, the Waco machine is nearly identical to our K2 machine in Kalamazoo, so we have experienced operators training our new team members on essentially the same equipment they will be running a few months from now.

培訓正在順利進行中，您可能還記得，Waco 機器與我們在卡拉馬祖的 K2 機器幾乎完全相同，因此我們經驗豐富的操作員對我們的新團隊成員進行培訓，培訓​​內容與他們幾個月後將要操作的設備基本相同。

After ensuring an appropriate level of paperboard inventory for the transition, we announced that our Middletown, Ohio recycled paper board manufacturing facility will close on June 1.

在確保過渡期間紙板庫存充足後，我們宣布位於俄亥俄州米德爾頓的再生紙板製造工廠將於 6 月 1 日關閉。

Middletown was built in 1,909 and has served our company well. We announced our intention to close Middletown some time ago, so the transition was not a surprise to the affected employees.

米德爾敦建於 1909 年，為我們公司提供了良好的服務。我們不久前就宣布了關閉米德爾頓的意圖，因此這項轉變對於受影響的員工來說並不意外。

We are working with the team there to provide outplacement assistance and other services. I want to personally thank the Middletown team for their dedication and commitment to exits.

我們正在與那裡的團隊合作，提供再就業援助和其他服務。我要親自感謝米德爾頓團隊的奉獻和對退出的承諾。

With a period of major investment competitive advantage coming to a close, we expect to generate substantial excess cash over the next several years. Yesterday, our board approved a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization.

隨著主要投資競爭優勢期即將結束，我們預計未來幾年將產生大量過剩現金。昨天，我們的董事會批准了一項新的 15 億美元股票回購授權。

As we transition from our vision 2025 to vision 2030, our capital allocation priorities shift, primarily to reinvestment and to returning capital to stock and debt holders.

隨著我們從 2025 年願景過渡到 2030 年願景，我們的資本配置重點發生了變化，主要轉向再投資以及向股票和債務持有人返還資本。

This new repurchase authorization reflects the board's commitment to our vision 2030 priorities and their confidence in the strength of graphic packaging team and business model.

這項新的回購授權反映了董事會對我們 2030 願景優先事項的承諾以及他們對圖形包裝團隊和商業模式實力的信心。

Volumes across consumer staples remain uneven and below our expectations. A stretched consumer has seen no significant relief from price inflation, and consumer confidence has declined significantly in the US and in the other markets we serve.

各類消費必需品的銷售仍不均衡，且低於我們的預期。捉襟見肘的消費者並未感受到價格上漲的明顯緩解，美國和我們服務的其他市場的消費者信心大幅下降。

Our volumes in the Americas, which were down about 1%, were disappointing, yet still broadly outperformed the CPG and QSR markets we serve. In our international business, where volumes turn positive in the second quarter of 2024, we continue to see growth, but we also see signs that consumers in international markets are beginning to pull back in their response to higher prices and greater economic uncertainty.

我們在美洲的銷量下降了約 1%，令人失望，但仍然遠遠優於我們所服務的 CPG 和 QSR 市場。在我們的國際業務中，交易量在 2024 年第二季度轉為正值，我們繼續看到成長，但我們也看到有跡象表明，國際市場的消費者開始因價格上漲和經濟不確定性加大而退縮。

The combination of slightly positive overall volumes and modest price pressure left our reported revenue essentially flat, excluding the effect of the May 1, 2024 Augusta divestiture.

整體銷售略有成長，加上價格壓力適中，除 2024 年 5 月 1 日奧古斯塔資產剝離的影響外，我們的報告收入基本持平。

The modest price pressure mostly reflects the impact of third party price recognition made in the middle of 2024 and some mix shifts.

適度的價格壓力主要反映了2024年中期第三方價格確認的影響以及一些組合變化。

On April 15, we announced a $40 price increase on all of our recycled and unbleached paper board grades effective May 15. We have a very good record of offsetting labour benefit and other costs through efficiency and net performance gains, and we did that again in the quarter.

4 月 15 日，我們宣布自 5 月 15 日起，所有再生紙板和未漂白紙板的價格將上漲 40 美元。我們在透過提高效率和淨績效來抵消勞動力福利和其他成本方面有著非常好的記錄，我們在本季度再次做到了這一點。

But when we experience meaningful input cost inflation like we did in the first quarter, we will pass those costs through to our customers.

但當我們經歷像第一季那樣的重大投入成本膨脹時，我們會將這些成本轉嫁給我們的客戶。

Turning to the five major markets we serve, food and health and beauty saw some modest improvement versus last quarter. Food service and household products were relatively flat, and beverage was down against a strong comparison last year despite higher promotional activity and soft drinks.

回顧我們服務的五大主要市場，食品、健康和美容市場與上一季相比有所改善。食品服務和家用產品表現相對平穩，飲料儘管促銷活動和軟性飲料增多，但與去年同期相比仍有所下降。

With food prices still high, we have seen the consumer search for value expand. Shoppers across most income brackets are now making different choices in response to relatively high food and household product prices, and that appears to be particularly benefiting our mass retail superstore, and discount grocer customers.

由於食品價格仍然高企，我們看到消費者對價值的追求不斷擴大。現在，大多數收入階層的購物者都會針對相對較高的食品和家居產品價格做出不同的選擇，這似乎特別有利於我們的大眾零售超市和折扣雜貨店的顧客。

I am sure you have read the same reports that we have of consumer shopping in more stores, buying fewer items in each one as they seek out the best value. Where consumer shop doesn't have a big impact on us, but our customers are seeing real volume declines in total goods purchased, and that certainly does impact us directly.

我相信您已經讀過與我們相同的報告，即消費者在更多商店購物，但在每家商店購買的商品更少，因為他們尋求最佳價值。消費者購物對我們沒有太大影響，但我們的客戶發現購買的商品總量實際上下降，這肯定會對我們產生直接影響。

We continue to broadly outperform North American CPG and QSR markets largely as a result of our innovation sales growth, which came in at $44 million for the poor. That growth came across a wide range of product categories for several new contributions in strength packaging, coffee, snacks, and cleaning products.

我們繼續在北美 CPG 和 QSR 市場中取得遠超預期的業績，這主要得益於我們創新銷售的成長，為窮人帶來了 4,400 萬美元的收益。這種成長涉及多種產品類別，包括強度包裝、咖啡、零食和清潔產品等多種新產品。

Meanwhile, arboreal paper board canister continues to expand into new products and new markets and we see a good tailwind in Europe and beverage multipack demand thanks to regulatory requirements that are phasing in over the next few years.

同時，樹棲紙板罐繼續擴展到新產品和新市場，並且由於未來幾年逐步實施的監管要求，我們看到歐洲和飲料多包裝需求的良好順風。

I am often asked if consumers are pulling away from innovation and sustainability initiatives to save money in this uncertain environment. In the first quarter, we did see a few customers slow down the rollouts, but most launches remained on schedule.

我常被問到，在這種不確定的環境下，消費者是否會為了省錢而放棄創新和永續發展計畫。在第一季度，我們確實看到一些客戶放慢了推出的速度，但大多數發布仍按計劃進行。

We tend to have about six to nine months of visibility in terms of new product development, and I feel very good about reaching our innovation sales growth target of at least 2% in 2025.

我們通常在新產品開發方面有大約六到九個月的可見性，我對在 2025 年實現至少 2% 的創新銷售成長目標感到非常高興。

Turning to slide four, the breadth and depth of our consumer staples packaging portfolio is the foundation of our strike. We are in every aisle of the supermarket, our major packaging supplier to the quick service restaurants, and expect to grow our presence substantially over time across household products and health and beauty.

翻到第四張投影片，我們消費必需品包裝產品組合的廣度和深度是我們發動攻擊的基礎。我們的產品遍佈超市的每個貨架，是快餐店的主要包裝供應商，並且期望隨著時間的推移，我們在家庭用品、健康和美容領域的影響力將大幅提升。

We can't change the macro environment, but our ability to move with the consumer is a key source of topline consistency over time.

我們無法改變宏觀環境，但我們與消費者同步變化的能力是長期維持營收一致性的關鍵因素。

Turning to slide five, let's look at sales by market. Overall, first quarter sales were basically flat year over year. Food represents approximately 38% of our packaging sales, and we saw some overall improvement, but results by product category remained very uneven. Promotional activity was not materially different from the fourth quarter and appears to have again driven more brand and mixed change than overall category volume growth.

翻到第五張投影片，讓我們來看看各市場的銷售額。整體來看，第一季銷售額與去年同期基本持平。食品約占我們包裝銷售額的 38%，我們看到了整體上的一些改善，但按產品類別劃分的結果仍然非常不均衡。促銷活動與第四季度相比沒有實質差異，似乎再次推動了品牌和混合變化，而不是整體類別銷售的成長。

Serial volumes improved modestly with gains by branded products more than offsetting weaker private label results, mostly as a result of promotional activity.

由於促銷活動的影響，連續出版物銷售略有增加，品牌產品的收益超過了自有品牌績效的疲軟。

Dry pasta and dry prepared foods like mac and cheese showed incremental strength, while some frozen prepared food categories lost ground. Frozen complete meals, for example, continue to lag as consumers balance cost to against its convenience.

乾麵食和通心粉起司等乾製熟食表現出逐漸增強的勢頭，而一些冷凍熟食類別則失去了市場。例如，由於消費者在成本和便利性之間進行權衡，冷凍全餐的銷售持續落後。

Bars, as a snack and meal replacement continue to gain, supported by trends including higher protein diets, GLP1, returning to the office, convenience and portion control.

能量棒作為零食和代餐食品的銷售持續成長，這得益於高蛋白飲食、GLP1、重返辦公室、便利性和份量控制等趨勢。

Coffee and tea again showed solid gains thanks in part to arboreal product innovation, but also from a shift in coffee consumption to the home and office and away from coffee shops. Tariffs could have a material impact on European coffee producers, given the higher proportion of European coffee that is exported to the US.

咖啡和茶再次呈現穩定成長，部分原因是樹木產品的創新，也是因為咖啡消費從咖啡店轉向家庭和辦公室。由於歐洲咖啡出口到美國的比例較高，關稅可能會對歐洲咖啡生產商產生重大影響。

Beverage, which represents about 25% of our overall packaging sales, saw its first decline after two years of strong performance. While beer consumption trends continue to slow, we did see some positive impact from promotion and soft drinks in the quarter, as well as gains by alternative beverage, including energy and nutritional drinks.

飲料約占我們整體包裝銷售額的 25%，在連續兩年表現強勁之後首次出現下滑。雖然啤酒消費趨勢持續放緩，但我們確實看到本季促銷和軟性飲料帶來的一些正面影響，以及包括能量和營養飲料在內的替代飲料的成長。

And in that alternative category, we saw notable gains by private label producers continuing on the trend that we have seen in soft drinks. Food service represents 21% of our packaging sales year over year results were relatively unchanged, with basically flat performance in the Americas and a pickup in our smaller international business.

在這個替代類別中，我們看到自有品牌生產商取得了顯著的成長，延續了我們在軟性飲料領域看到的趨勢。食品服務占我們包裝銷售額的 21%，年比業績基本沒有變化，美洲地區的表現基本持平，而規模較小的國際業務則回升。

While we saw higher promotional activity by quick service restaurants, traffic remained relatively flat even as a shift towards value menus and limited time offerings became more pronounced. We saw growth in food service demand from supermarkets and US convenience stores where investments in freshly prepared foods and bakery items have shown some success taking volume from the QSR channel.

雖然我們看到快餐店的促銷活動增多，但即使向超值菜單和限時供應的轉變變得更加明顯，客流量仍然相對平穩。我們看到超市和美國便利商店的食品服務需求不斷增長，這些地方對新鮮食品和烘焙食品的投資已取得一定成功，從 QSR 管道搶佔了銷售量。

Household products represent approximately 12% of our packaging sales and saw an uneven results, with modest weakness in the Americas offset by pockets of significant improvement internationally.

家用產品約占我們包裝銷售額的 12%，其業績表現不均衡，美洲地區的輕微疲軟被國際市場的顯著改善所抵消。

Laundry detergent pods where child resistant paperboard solution is replacing plastic and plastic film from major European brands, continues to be solid growth opportunity for us. Pet food remains strong while tissue's weakness continued. And finally, health and beauty, a small but promising part of our overall packaging sales, saw mixed results in international but better results in the Americas.

洗衣凝珠採用兒童防護紙板解決方案取代歐洲主要品牌的塑膠和塑膠薄膜，這對我們來說仍然是一個穩固的成長機會。寵物食品依然保持強勢，而紙巾市場則持續疲軟。最後，健康和美容是我們整體包裝銷售中規模雖小但前景看好的部分，在國際上業績好壞參半，但在美洲的業績較好。

International, we saw incremental weakness in everyday skincare and other wellness products as consumers tighten their belts, but we saw a modest gain in the Americas. Healthcare was about flat in both markets.

在國際上，隨著消費者勒緊褲腰帶，我們發現日常保養品和其他保健產品逐漸疲軟，但美洲地區則略有成長。兩個市場的醫療保健表現基本上持平。

If you'll turn with me to slide six, we present typical seasonal patterns on the left and our actual unexpected experience on the right. While normal quarterly seasonality was evident in most categories, food was modestly weaker than normal.

如果您和我一起翻到第六張投影片，左邊展示的是典型的季節模式，右邊展示的是我們實際的意外經驗。雖然大多數類別都表現出正常的季度季節性，但食品的季節性略低於正常水平。

As we noted in our February earnings call, January started out slow in large part to unusually cold weather that led to fewer trips to the grocery store. As the quarter progressed, our customers continued to see relatively weak volumes without the normal February dip and the March rebound.

正如我們在二月的收益電話會議上所指出的，一月份的開局表現緩慢，很大程度上是由於異常寒冷的天氣導致人們去雜貨店的次數減少。隨著本季的進展，我們的客戶繼續看到相對較弱的銷售量，沒有正常的二月下降和三月的反彈。

And as you've read elsewhere, the search for value is not just focused on lower income brackets. Consumers across the income spectrum and increasingly across our international business are searching for better value, and many are cutting back where they can.

正如您在其他地方讀到的那樣，對價值的追求不僅僅關注低收入階層。各個收入水平的消費者以及我們國際業務中越來越多的消費者都在尋求更高的價值，許多消費者都在盡可能地削減開支。

Meanwhile, as I noted earlier, promotional activity by our CPG and QSR customers has not translated into meaningful volume improvement or higher foot traffic.

同時，正如我之前提到的，我們的 CPG 和 QSR 客戶的促銷活動並沒有轉化為有意義的銷售成長或更高的客流量。

Private label and mass retail continues to gain in that environment. Cost inflation, which looked relatively benign early in the quarter, picked up considerably across most of our inputs other than fibre. As we look to the second quarter, input cost inflation remains significant, and at the consumer level, some categories, particularly the food, are experiencing renewed retail level price increases.

在這種環境下，自有品牌和大眾零售繼續獲利。成本通膨在本季初看起來相對溫和，但除纖維外，我們的大多數投入成本均大幅上升。展望第二季度，投入成本通膨依然顯著，在消費層面，一些類別，特別是食品，正在經歷新一輪的零售價格上漲。

When we spoke last quarter, we said we weren't banking on a consumer recovery. As we look to the 2025 outlook, a 2% volume decline is now our base case. That is a very challenging backdrop for our CPG and QSR customers, and we continue to work with them to deliver the best packaging solutions for their strategies.

當我們上個季度發言時，我們說過我們並不指望消費者復甦。展望 2025 年，2% 的銷售下降是我們的基本預測。對於我們的 CPG 和 QSR 客戶來說，這是一個非常具有挑戰性的背景，我們將繼續與他們合作，為他們的策略提供最佳的包裝解決方案。

Another trend I'm often asked about is private label, and if growing private label has implications for innovation, growth and for our margins. The reality is that private label has been a significant part of our innovation sales growth, and particularly with some of our highest value innovations like Oreo and Paper seal.

我常被問到的另一個趨勢是自有品牌，以及自有品牌的成長是否會對創新、成長和利潤產生影響。事實上，自有品牌一直是我們創新銷售成長的重要組成部分，尤其是一些價值最高的創新產品，如奧利奧和紙封條。

Retailers want their own brands to stand out on the shelf and are just as committed to plaster production as most CPGs. Our experience has been that our margin with private label customers is not materially different from our branded customer margins.

零售商希望自己的品牌能夠在貨架上脫穎而出，並像大多數消費品公司一樣致力於膏藥生產。我們的經驗是，我們與自有品牌客戶的利潤與我們的品牌客戶的利潤並沒有實質的差異。

Slide seven highlights our five pageant innovation platforms and knows the scale of the opportunity we see in each one. My confidence in the size and scope of the opportunity in each of these areas continues to rise. Each new commercial success, paper seal for prepared food, for example, not only adds to our sales but also adds to our insights and our confidence in our ability to expand in new markets, and we are doing just that.

第七張投影片重點介紹了我們的五個選美創新平台，並了解了我們在每個平台上看到的機會的規模。我對這些領域中每個領域的機會規模和範圍的信心不斷增強。每一個新的商業成功，例如用於預製食品的紙封，不僅增加了我們的銷售額，而且增強了我們的洞察力和對我們在新市場擴張能力的信心，而我們正在這樣做。

Turn to slide eight EnviroClip beam is our proprietary solution for PET bottle multipacks developed in the United States. It is now rolling out with our first customer in the UK, a rapidly growing independent beverage producer.

翻到幻燈片八 EnviroClip beam 是我們在美國開發的 PET 瓶多包裝的專有解決方案。目前，我們正在向英國的第一位客戶推出該產品，這是一家快速發展的獨立飲料生產商。

The viral clip beam is an outstanding low impact alternative to plastic ring carriers and shrink wrap that offer exceptional product stability, superior marketing value, and is plastic and glue-free, making it fully recyclable. According to slide nine, our vision for graphic packaging is clear.

病毒夾樑是塑膠環載體和收縮包裝的出色低影響替代品，具有出色的產品穩定性、卓越的行銷價值，並且不含塑膠和膠水，因此完全可回收。根據第九張投影片，我們對圖形包裝的願景很清楚。

After a half decade of transformational investment capabilities, innovation, and competitive advantage, our focus turns to innovation and execution. We have built our company culture around safety, engagement, and delivering for our customers. Our commitment to improving the environmental footprint of consumer packaging is at the centre of our mission.

經過五年的轉型投資能力、創新和競爭優勢，我們的重點轉向創新和執行。我們圍繞著安全、參與和為客戶提供服務建立了公司文化。我們致力於改善消費品包裝的環境影響，這是我們使命的核心。

Pulling those three things together, innovation, culture, and commitment to sustainability is how we generate best in class results for customers and for all our stakeholders.

將創新、文化和對永續發展的承諾這三者結合在一起，我們就能為客戶和所有利害關係人創造一流的成果。

Now let me turn it over to Steve for a review of the company's financials and operations. Steve.

現在，讓我將任務交給史蒂夫，讓他審查一下公司的財務和營運。史蒂夫。

Thank you, Mike. Turning slide 10, as Mike has noted, the first quarter was a challenging one, with volumes below expectations and inflation pressure across a range of inputs. Sales for the first quarter of 2025 were $2.1 billion.

謝謝你，麥克。翻到第 10 張投影片，正如 Mike 所指出的，第一季是一個充滿挑戰的季度，交易量低於預期，一系列投入都面臨通膨壓力。2025 年第一季的銷售額為 21 億美元。

If we exclude the impact of the Augusta divestiture and the impact of foreign exchange in the quarter, packaging sales, we're basically flat year over year. Packaging price was approximately 1% lower and volume approximately 1% higher.

如果我們排除奧古斯塔資產剝離的影響和外匯對本季包裝銷售額的影響，那麼與去年同期相比，我們的銷售額基本上持平。包裝價格約降低 1%，而產量約增加 1%。

Price largely reflected the impact of a third-party price recognition in the middle of 2024 which will roll off after next quarter and some minor mix effects. Behind the 1% volume growth are America's business with its higher integrated margins, was actually down approximately 1%.

價格在很大程度上反映了 2024 年中期第三方價格確認的影響，該影響將在下個季度後消失，並產生一些輕微的混合效應。1%的銷量成長背後是綜合利潤率較高的美國業務，但實際上卻下降了約1%。

While our smaller non-integrated international business was up approximately 3%. Adjusted EBITDA $365 million well below our original expectations, primarily as a result of the weaker than expected volumes and higher than expected inflation.

而我們規模較小的非綜合國際業務則成長了約 3%。調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.65 億美元，遠低於我們最初的預期，主要原因是銷售低於預期且通貨膨脹率高於預期。

When we spoke on last quarter's earnings call, we described cost inflation as relatively benign. We weren't surprised by the higher costs which came with the cold weather in January. Input costs rise and production efficiency dropped with cold weather and this year's weather was particularly harsh.

當我們在上個季度的收益電話會議上發言時，我們將成本通膨描述為相對溫和。我們對一月份寒冷天氣導致的成本上漲並不感到驚訝。寒冷的天氣導致投入成本上升，生產效率下降，今年的天氣尤其惡劣。

But as the weather improved, it became clear that the upward pressure on input costs was not going away.

但隨著天氣好轉，投入成本的上行壓力顯然並沒有消失。

The increases that we saw in January in energy, chemicals, logistics, and transportation, and other categories remained elevated throughout the quarter and have continued into the second quarter.

1月能源、化學、物流、運輸等類別的成長動能在整個季度都保持高位，並持續到第二季​​。

Responding to that input cost inflation, on April 15, we announced a $40 per ton price increase for recycled and unbleached paperboard. We expect those price increases to help bring margins back to more normal levels over the coming quarters.

為了因應投入成本上漲，我們在 4 月 15 日宣布將再生紙板和未漂白紙板的價格每噸提高 40 美元。我們預計這些價格上漲將有助於使利潤率在未來幾季恢復到更正常的水平。

During the first quarter, the impact of price, volume, and mix together amounted to a $34 million headwind. Net performance of $33 million largely offset labour, benefits, and other inflation of approximately $25 million. But it was not enough to offset input cost inflation of $21 million.

在第一季度，價格、銷售和產品組合的影響總計達 3,400 萬美元。3300萬美元的淨業績在很大程度上抵消了約2500萬美元的勞動力、福利和其他通貨膨脹的影響。但這還不足以抵銷2,100萬美元的投入成本膨脹。

The absence of Augusta in 2025 reduced reported adjusted even by approximately $25 million. We ended the quarter with net leverage of 3.5 times.

據報道，2025年奧古斯塔的缺席將導致賽事費用減少約2,500萬美元。本季末我們的淨槓桿率為 3.5 倍。

Cash outlays for taxes and Waco spending were notably higher in the 1st quarter than we expect them to be in future quarters.

第一季的稅收和韋科支出的現金支出明顯高於我們預期的未來幾季。

Slide 11 highlights the challenging consumer packaging environment on the left and the strength of our business model and execution on the right. While lower than expected volume and input cost inflation pushed margins lower in the quarter, our price actions are expected to improve margins as the year progresses.

幻燈片 11 左側突出顯示了充滿挑戰的消費者包裝環境，右側突出顯示了我們的商業模式和執行力的優勢。雖然低於預期的銷售量和投入成本通膨導致本季利潤率下降，但隨著時間的推移，我們的價格行動預計會提高利潤率。

Second quarter will be a heavy planned maintenance quarter as it was in both of the past two years, and as such, we expect second quarter margins to again fall modestly below first quarter margins.

與過去兩年一樣，第二季將是計劃維護工作繁忙的季度，因此，我們預計第二季的利潤率將再次略低於第一季的利潤率。

Turning to the outlook on slide 12, we have adjusted guidance to reflect a higher level of uncertainty around volumes and a broad-based increase in input cost inflation.

談到第 12 張投影片上的展望，我們已調整指引，以反映產量方面的更高不確定性以及投入成本通膨的全面增長。

We lowered and widened the range of expected volume outcomes to a 4% volume decline at the low end to flat volumes at the high end.

我們降低並擴大了預期交易量結果的範圍，低端交易量下降 4%，高端交易持平。

Previous guidance had assumed that market volumes would be relatively flat.

先前的指導假設市場交易量將相對平穩。

Then layered on 2% innovation sales growth to arrive at a range of 1% to 3%. But it is clear that our CPG and QSR customers are in many cases experiencing volume declines in the low to mid-single digits.

然後在 2% 的創新銷售成長基礎上，達到 1% 至 3% 的範圍。但很明顯，我們的 CPG 和 QSR 客戶在許多情況下都經歷了低到中等個位數的銷售下降。

With little help from promotional activity. Meanwhile, consumer confidence has dropped in both the Americas and in our international markets, which may lead to even more consumer retrenchment.

促銷活動幾乎沒有提供任何幫助。同時，美洲和國際市場的消費者信心均有所下降，這可能會導致進一步的消費者緊縮支出。

The continued weak consumer response to promotional activity leaves us increasingly cautious about potential volumes in 2025.

消費者對促銷活動的反應持續疲軟，令我們對 2025 年的潛在銷售量越來越謹慎。

Our adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance reflect the impact of those lower and wider volume assumptions, as well as the expectation that input cost inflation will continue in coming quarters. We have taken a number of actions to ensure that our own resources are appropriately scaled and deployed.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 和 EPS 指引反映了這些較低和更廣泛的銷售假設的影響，以及對未來幾季投入成本通膨將持續的預期。我們採取了一系列措施來確保我們自己的資源得到適當的擴展和部署。

And as mentioned earlier, we are in the market with price increase announcements. We continue to expect capital spending to fall in the $700 million range, and as Mike noted, we expect to generate innovation sales growth of at least 2% of sales.

正如之前提到的，我們已在市場上發布了漲價公告。我們繼續預期資本支出將在 7 億美元左右，正如 Mike 指出的那樣，我們預計創新銷售額將增加至少 2%。

Slide 13 summarizes the company's vision 2030 based financial model and capital allocation priorities which are unchanged.

投影片 13 總結了公司基於 2030 願景的財務模型和資本配置優先事項，這些優先事項保持不變。

With Waco nearing completion. Our priorities turn to a more normal level of reinvestment for growth and productivity which is included in our 5% of sales CapEx target and returning capital to stockholders.

韋科即將完工。我們的優先事項轉向更正常的成長和生產力再投資水平，其中包括 5% 的銷售資本支出目標和向股東返還資本。

In February, we announced a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend. Packaging believes that a growing dividend is appropriate capital allocation, given the relative consistency and strength of our business model and our future cash flow expectations.

二月份，我們宣布季度股息增加 10%。Packaging 認為，考慮到我們業務模式的相對一致性和實力以及未來現金流預期，增加股利是適當的資本配置。

We expect to generate substantial cash in excess of our needs for years to come.

我們預計未來幾年將產生超出我們需求的大量現金。

And as Mike mentioned earlier, our board of directors has approved a new $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization that takes our total available authorization to more than $1.8 billion.

正如麥克之前提到的，我們的董事會已經批准了一項新的 15 億美元股票回購授權，這使我們的總可用授權額度超過 18 億美元。

Traffic packaging has a strong history of opportunistic share repurchase activity and we will compare every use of cash against the alternative of repurchasing our own stock. The new authorization includes the ability to enter into 10B51 plans to give the company a higher level of flexibility over the coming months and years.

交通包裝有著悠久的機會主義股票回購活動歷史，我們將把每一次現金使用與回購我們自己股票的替代方案進行比較。新的授權包括簽署 10B51 計畫的能力，以便在未來幾個月和幾年內為公司提供更高的靈活性。

Well, we continue to expect to be investment grade by 2030. Given our declining capital spending needs and limited near-term debt maturities, we are comfortable with our current debt levels.

嗯，我們仍然預計到 2030 年將達到投資等級。鑑於我們的資本支出需求下降和短期債務到期有限，我們對目前的債務水準感到滿意。

We are targeting net leverage for year-end 2025 below 3.5 times. Inclusive of any share repurchase activity or other capital deployment initiatives we may undertake.

我們的目標是到2025年底淨槓桿率低於3.5倍。包括我們可能採取的任何股票回購活動或其他資本配置措施。

Slide 14 describes some of the milestones on the path to our vision 2030 goals. 2024 was peak CapEx at $1.2 billion. In 2025, capital spending is expected to be in the range of $700 million and in 2026 and each subsequent year, we will hold capital spending to approximately 5% of sales, which includes sustaining capital needs, greenhouse gas reduction projects, and growth capital.

投影片 14 描述了我們實現 2030 年願景目標道路上的一些里程碑。 2024 年資本支出達到高峰 12 億美元。2025 年，資本支出預計在 7 億美元左右，2026 年及以後的每一年，我們將把資本支出控制在銷售額的 5% 左右，其中包括維持資本需求、溫室氣體減排項目和成長資本。

In each of 2026 and 2027, we expect the Waco project to deliver incremental even of approximately $80 million. Despite trade and market growth uncertainty, 2025 marks the beginning of a multi-year free cash flow expansion cycle at graphic packaging.

我們預計，2026 年和 2027 年，Waco 專案將帶來約 8,000 萬美元的增量收益。儘管貿易和市場成長存在不確定性，但 2025 年標誌著圖形包裝多年自由現金流擴張週期的開始。

We intend to deploy that incremental cash to generate outstanding returns for stockholders while further strengthening graphic packaging's position as the world's leading producer of sustainable consumer packaging.

我們打算利用這些增量現金為股東創造豐厚的回報，同時進一步鞏固圖形包裝作為全球領先的永續消費包裝生產商的地位。

On slide 16, you will find supplemental information that may be useful for modelling purposes. That concludes our prepared remarks. Before I turn the call back to the operator. I want to let everyone know that we will be adhering to the one question, one follow-up guideline. In order to allow as many of you to participate on the call as possible. Operator let's begin the Q&A.

在投影片 16 上，您將找到可能對建模有用的補充資訊。我們的準備好的演講到此結束。在我把電話轉回給接線生之前。我想讓大家知道，我們將堅持「一個問題，一個後續行動」的指導方針。為了讓盡可能多的人能夠參與通話。接線員，讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Ganam Panjabi, Baird.

（操作員指示）Ganam Panjabi，Baird。

Hey guys, good morning. Good morning. So, I guess, first off, just on the volume, component, I mean, clearly, Mike can see I mean volumes were at a low point to begin with, right? So, you had the COVID surge, you had the destock, you had consumer affordability issues, and maybe we're sort of at the tail portion of that, still feeling the lags of previous price increases, etc. But you also have this dynamic of GLP-1 and you know the impact on packaged food, especially the centre of the stores, so. Are you able to see any trends within your own data that would.

大家好，早安。早安.所以，我想，首先，就交易量而言，我的意思是，很明顯，麥克可以看到，交易量一開始就處於低點，對吧？所以，你經歷了新冠疫情激增、庫存減少、消費者負擔能力問題，也許我們正處於疫情的尾聲，仍然感受到之前價格上漲的滯後等等。但你也知道 GLP-1 的動態，你知道它對包裝食品的影響，尤其是對商店中心的影響，所以。您能否從自己的數據中看出任何趨勢？

Confirm that it's really an affordability issue versus anything else at this point.

確認目前這確實是一個負擔能力問題，而不是其他任何問題。

Yeah, thanks for the question. I guess if you kind of go back and look at the second half of last year, I got you, and you look at what how we were operating the business, and we talked to all of you at our second quarter call, and what our customers were telling us is that they were going to grow their volumes roughly 3%. So, we geared up and they wanted us to gear up for that. That's exactly what we did.

是的，謝謝你的提問。我想，如果你回顧去年下半年，你就會明白我們是如何經營業務的，我們在第二季度電話會議上與大家進行了交談，我們的客戶告訴我們，他們的銷量將增長約 3%。所以，我們做好了準備，他們也希望我們做好準備。這正是我們所做的。

And as you saw, we finished the year, the second half of the year, we were slightly up, I think about 0.51%, so essentially flat. That was the basis for the plan that we put forward. You heard Steve talk his prepared comments that our assumption going into this year was kind of a flat volume, to your point coming off some challenging years in '23 and '24, and then our innovation would be plus2.

正如您所看到的，我們在年底，也就是下半年，我們的業績略有成長，大概是 0.51%，所以基本上持平。這就是我們提出計劃的基礎。您聽到史蒂夫談到他的準備好的評論，我們對今年的假設是銷量持平，正如您所說，在經歷了 23 年和 24 年的一些挑戰之後，我們的創新將增加 2。

And so we kind of built our business on that. And kind of quickly into the quarter, we saw that that really wasn't happening. And we talked at a couple of investor conferences about our volumes being flat. And of course what you have seen in the last two or three weeks, including today with McDonald's announcement, are the vast majority of our customers have been pointing the volumes down roughly 3% to 4% against relatively easy comp.

所以我們以此為基礎建立了我們的業務。但很快進入本季度，我們就發現這種情況並沒有發生。我們在幾次投資者會議上談到我們的交易量持平的情況。當然，在過去的兩三週裡，包括今天麥當勞的公告，我們看到絕大多數顧客都表示，與相對容易比較的情況相比，銷量下降了約 3% 至 4%。

Now to your question around, kind of what is driving all that, we actually believe affordability is a key part of that. If you think about GLP1, you mentioned this, that's a little bit of an opportunity. And the challenge for our customers. In some cases, the additional protein creates opportunities need for protein, I should say creates additional opportunities for, reformulation, which several of our customers have done. On the other side, it impacts of their snack sales.

現在回答你的問題，是什麼推動了這一切，我們實際上認為可負擔性是其中的關鍵部分。如果你考慮 GLP1，你提到了這一點，這是一個小機會。這也是我們的客戶面臨的挑戰。在某些情況下，額外的蛋白質創造了對蛋白質的需求的機會，我應該說創造了額外的重新配製機會，我們的一些客戶已經這樣做了。另一方面，這也影響了他們的零食銷售。

I would say the maha piece of this is also pretty significant for our customers, particularly those who could potentially be impacted by these Snap programs not being.

我想說，這對我們的客戶來說也非常重要，特別是那些可能受到這些 Snap 程式影響的客戶。

Able to be used in other government assistance programs for certain soft drinks and car salty snacks and those types of things. So that's a challenge.

可以用於其他政府援助計劃中，用於某些軟性飲料、車載鹹味小吃等類型的東西。所以這是一個挑戰。

In the reformulation piece with some of the requirements coming from the FDA around removing certain dyes, they'll reformulate. They're really good at reformulating our customers are, but it takes some time and ultimately, as those reformulations are usually more expensive and so then that creates additional pressure on, consumer that already came into the year.

在重新配方部分，他們會根據 FDA 關於去除某些染料的一些要求重新制定配方。他們確實擅長為我們的客戶重新制定配方，但這需要一些時間，而且最終，由於這些重新制定的配方通常更昂貴，因此這會給已經進入今年的消費者帶來額外的壓力。

Pretty stretched, and now if you lay on, these trade tariff your backdrop here, they're nervous and so where they used to go to the store and maybe buy 15 things, now they're going to the store and buying 13 things and ultimately, as we've talked about, we're not immune from, our customers' volume shortfalls. So even at the 2% down in our guide here, we're actually outperforming what we're currently seeing, and we felt it was important.

相當緊張，現在如果你繼續說下去，這些貿易關稅就是你的背景，他們很緊張，所以他們過去去商店可能買 15 件東西，現在他們去商店買 13 件東西，最終，正如我們所討論的，我們也無法免受客戶數量短缺的影響。因此，即使我們的指南中提到下降了 2%，我們的表現實際上也超過了目前的情況，我們認為這很重要。

That we actually take a hard look at what our customers' numbers are telling us and their releases and operate the business along those lines. Of course we're helping them reformulate. We're cheering for them with their promotions, but to this point across a wide range of customers, we have not seen it translate into volume stability or certainly growth.

我們實際上會認真研究客戶的數字和他們的發布情況，並按照這些思路開展業務。當然，我們正在幫助他們重新制定。我們為他們的促銷活動歡呼，但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到廣大客戶的促銷活動轉化為銷售穩定或成長。

And so as we look at the full year is and how we want to operate the business, well, we can't control our volumes, what we can control is our cash flow, and we want to run our business really to demand and making sure that we're running to the requirements that we see in front of us that'll eliminate some of the inventory that correctly so some of the analysts pointed out.

因此，當我們回顧全年情況以及我們希望如何運營業務時，我們無法控制業務量，我們能控制的是現金流，我們希望根據需求來運營業務，確保我們按照眼前的需求運行，從而正確地消除一些庫存，正如一些分析師指出的那樣。

That we built at the end of last year as we were kind of preparing for the growth that didn't show up. So that's how we think about it in the short term that's got some negative implications for IITA, but it helps us make sure that we maximize our cash flow and really position our business for, rebound, which eventually will happen. I just can't tell you when.

我們在去年年底建立了這個體系，為尚未出現的成長做準備。所以，我們認為短期內這對國際熱帶農業研究所來說有一些負面影響，但它有助於我們確保最大化我們的現金流，並真正為我們的業務做好最終會實現的反彈的準備。我只是不能告訴你具體時間。

Okay, that's really good perspective. Thank you for that and then just quickly on, as it relates to guidance maybe for Steve what's the embedded assumption for when price costs will turn, at least neutral to positive in 2025.

好的，這確實是一個很好的觀點。謝謝你，然後我想快速地問一下，因為它與指導有關，也許對於史蒂夫來說，當價格成本在 2025 年至少從中性轉變為正值時，嵌入的假設是什麼。

Yeah, thanks Ghansham, our embedded assumption in the midpoint of $1.5 billion of EBITDA, just touching on that briefly, is embedded in that is the 2% volume assumption, and we've got about $80 billion of inflation in the business.

是的，謝謝 Ghansham，我們對 EBITDA 中點 15 億美元的嵌入假設，只是簡單談一下，嵌入的是 2% 的交易量假設，而我們的業務中存在約 800 億美元的通貨膨脹。

We are pursuing price actions on multiple fronts. We obviously have our cost models that will inflect with some pricing. We have our new index model which will infect positive on pricing, and then we've announced a third-party increase. It's our expectation that we'll flip to positive late this year and recover the inflation as we roll into 2026.

我們正在多個方面採取價格行動。我們顯然有自己的成本模型，它會隨著定價而改變。我們有新的指數模型，它將對定價產生積極影響，然後我們宣布了第三方增加。我們預計，今年稍晚通膨將轉為正值，到 2026 年通膨將恢復。

So we'll see modest benefit of our pricing actions this year and would expect that our pricing initiatives, multiple of them. We'll recover the inflation that we're seeing as we roll out of '25 and into '26, so we have full intent obviously to recover the inflation that we're seeing just given some of the modest delays, it will take place more as we enter into '26 relative to that recovery. We've got about $100 million of price actions that we're executing on right now across all of the options that we have for pursuing pricing.

因此，我們將看到今年我們的定價行動將帶來適度的收益，並預計我們的定價舉措將有很多。隨著我們走出 25 年、進入 26 年，我們將恢復我們所看到的通貨膨脹，因此，我們顯然有充分的意圖來恢復我們所看到的通貨膨脹，只是考慮到一些適度的延遲，相對於這種復甦，當我們進入 26 年時，它將更多地發生。目前，我們正在針對所有定價選項執行約 1 億美元的價格行動。

Very helpful, thank you again.

非常有幫助，再次感謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Arun Viswanathan。

Great, thanks for taking my question. I hope you guys are well. I guess just kind of curious, going back to the volume side, so, this volume kind of decline has been going on for a little while.

太好了，感謝您回答我的問題。我希望你們都好。我想只是有點好奇，回到交易量方面，這種交易量的下降已經持續了一段時間了。

You guys have taken some downtime in the past, but, I guess just curious if that's still kind of what you're contemplating and then. Would you consider, do you think the market is kind of oversupplied or maybe you can just kind of go through the supply demand balance in each of your three grades, I know SBS, you don't have much exposure to, but what's really, do you think there's any footprint actions that have to be, undertaken by the industry, yourselves included? Thanks.

你們過去曾休息過一段時間，但我只是好奇這是否仍然是你們正在考慮的事情。您是否考慮過，您是否認為市場有點供過於求，或者也許您可以只通過三個等級的供需平衡來了解一下，我知道 SBS，您對這方面了解不多，但實際上，您認為整個行業（包括您自己）是否必須採取一些足跡行動？謝謝。

And so I answered the question this way, as I mentioned in my comment, my answer to Ghansham, we are going to run our business to requirements and demand. So that will necessitate from time to time us taking some rolling, market-related downtime through our system, and that's reflected in this guide that we've given you and ultimately that's the impact of going from a plus 2 to a minus.

因此，我這樣回答了這個問題，正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我對 Ghansham 的回答是，我們將根據要求和需求來開展業務。因此，這將需要我們不時透過我們的系統進行一些與市場相關的滾動停機，這反映在我們給您的指南中，最終這是從加 2 到減 2 的影響。

At the midpoint, that's 4%, and that's the paper board that we're pulling out of there. There's a fair amount of absorption, as that ultimately, we generate on that. It'll help us maximize our cash flow in the short term.

中間點是 4%，這就是我們從那裡拉出來的紙板。最終我們會在此基礎上產生相當多的吸收。它將幫助我們在短期內實現現金流最大化。

We believe that's the right way to operate the business. It also makes sure that inventories stay very tight and along those lines, it really does a nice setup for our Waco. Project here which I'll comment on. I'm sure there'll be a question on that later on in regards to kind of the supply and demand balance by the grades.

我們相信這是經營業務的正確方式。它還確保庫存保持非常緊張，並且沿著這個思路，它確實為我們的 Waco 做好了良好的準備。我將對此項目進行評論。我確信稍後會出現有關不同等級的供需平衡的問題。

Look, you probably saw that, two of our competitors this morning announced closures of coded recycled paper board mills, which, at a capacity levels well over 200,000 tons that would represent In the North American market, certainly in the US, somewhere between 7% and 9% of reduction.

您看，您可能已經看到了，我們的兩家競爭對手今天上午宣布關閉編碼再生紙板廠，這些工廠的產能遠遠超過 200,000 噸，這意味著在北美市場（當然在美國），產量將減少 7% 到 9%。

And if you look at the actions that we've already announced from Middletown and East Angus as we get Waco up and running in the capacity that comes out of line with Waco, it essentially ties out and there's really no net ton ad, to the code of recycled paper board side of the market, so.

如果你看一下我們已經宣布的來自米德爾敦和東安格斯的行動，當我們讓韋科以與韋科不符的容量投入運營時，它基本上是相互關聯的，而且實際上沒有淨噸廣告，對於市場再生紙板方面的代碼來說，所以。

That's really, in a good spot, and our confidence level, and Steve said in his prepared comments, the $80 million in '26 and the $80 million in '27. I've got a high degree of confidence in that, and I think that those actions really further cement support that as you kind of look out over the next two years.

這確實是一個很好的機會，也是我們的信心水平，史蒂夫在他的準備好的評論中說，26 年是 8000 萬美元，27 年也是 8000 萬美元。我對此非常有信心，我認為，展望未來兩年，這些行動確實進一步鞏固了對這一點的支持。

CUK is a great grade. I know sometimes we see in the trade. Journals that, the beverage season didn't show up last year. That was news to us because we had pretty normal beverage system season last year, and this one's off to a decent start too.

CUK 成績很好。我知道有時我們在交易中會看到這種情況。報道稱，去年飲料季並未到來。這對我們來說是個新聞，因為去年我們的飲料系統季節相當正常，而今年也有了一個不錯的開始。

One of the can suppliers has gone earlier. They talked about expecting to have a decent, summer beverage season. The area we see the biggest uneven behaviour right now or volume is really our food. Business and it's one of our biggest businesses and it's just been that way now for the better part of, a year and a half and like I said, our customers are working on this.

其中一家罐頭供應商已經提前離開了。他們談到期待迎來一個不錯的夏季飲料季。我們現在看到的最不均勻行為或數量實際上是我們的食物。業務是我們最大的業務之一，一年半以來大部分時間都是如此，就像我說的，我們的客戶正在為此努力。

They're busy. We're, you've got a lot of different things they're trying to do, but ultimately, it has to start to show up on the bottom line, from in the form of orders and at this point, it hasn't, so we can't earn on what we don't have, but if you look at the SPS side of it and you answered the question, there, we're doing well there because our Texarkana mill is essentially 100% integrated, as combination of our cup paper board as well as our coated, solid bleach sulphate paper board that we use internally within our own operations.

他們很忙。他們正在嘗試做很多不同的事情，但最終，它必須以訂單的形式體現在底線上，而目前還沒有，所以我們無法靠沒有的東西賺錢，但如果你看一下 SPS 方面，你就會回答這個問題，我們在那裡做得很好，因為我們的 Texarkana 工廠基本上是 100% 集成的，包括我們的漂白紙板在內部工作中以及我們在內部漂白的固體。

There is additional capacity. Coming online on the SPS side of the business, a producer is bringing out a new machine here in the second quarter. I get asked a lot, what does that all mean? And as I kind of told you guys, the analysts that you're going to have to ask someone that's really much more in the open market sales than I am because we just aren't in that market.

還有額外的容量。在 SPS 業務方面，一家生產商將在第二季推出一款新機器。常常有人問我，這一切意味著什麼？正如我告訴你們的，你們必須向那些在公開市場銷售方面比我更了解的人詢問分析師，因為我們根本不在那個市場。

But clearly there needs to be capacity that comes out, but graphic packaging. Along with you we'll be watching on the sidelines there because we're essentially 100% integrated. So, as we kind of look at the grades and what we're making, we feel like we're really set up well, as we wind, through here '25, ramp Waco in the fall and head into 2026 focused on delivering our $80 million of EBITDA improvement. So hopefully that helps, answer your question.

但顯然需要有發揮出來的容量，但要有圖形包裝。我們將和你們一起在場邊觀察，因為我們基本上已經 100% 整合了。因此，當我們審視成績和我們所取得的成就時，我們感覺我們已經做好了充分的準備，我們將度過 25 年，在秋季擴大 Waco 業務，並邁向 2026 年，重點實現 8000 萬美元的 EBITDA 增長。希望這能有所幫助，回答您的問題。

Great, thanks. And just to just to clarify, so the $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion of guidance for this year, would you consider that, kind of 1.4 level, worst case scenario, and I guess, if the volumes do say go to is the midpoint kind of assume kind of flattish volumes and 1.4 is down to or how should we think about that? Thanks.

太好了，謝謝。只是為了澄清一下，所以今年 14 億美元到 16 億美元的指導金額，你會考慮 1.4 水平，這是最壞的情況嗎？我想，如果交易量確實達到中點，那麼假設交易量持平，1.4 下降到，或者我們應該如何考慮這一點？謝謝。

Yeah, and specifically the 1.4 low end of the case would be an extremely unusual case. We bracketed it because we didn't want to take it off the table, but it would actually be a 4% volume decline and upwards of $150 million of inflation and upwards of $150 million of inflation.

是的，具體來說，1.4 的低端情況是極不尋常的。我們把它括起來，因為我們不想把它從討論範圍中剔除，但實際上它將導致交易量下降 4%，通貨膨脹將超過 1.5 億美元，通貨膨脹將超過 1.5 億美元。

So that would be a truly unique environment not seen before where we have both a combination of inflation. And significant volume erosion kind of a deep recessionary stagflation type scenario. The midpoint assumes the minus 2% volume, which is and then roughly, $80 million or so of inflation, which we will recover. It just will get recovered in 2026 and beyond.

因此，這將是一個真正獨特的環境，前所未見，我們同時面臨通貨膨脹。且產量大幅減少，形成了一種深度衰退性滯脹情境。中點假設交易量為負 2%，即約 8,000 萬美元左右的通貨膨脹，我們將收回這筆錢。它將在 2026 年及以後恢復。

The 1.6% assumes roughly flat volume and a more modest level of inflation. In the $50 million range, so everything is bracketed around volume and inflation assumptions. With inflation planning to be recovered, it will occur, late this year and into the next year, but that's the bracket.

1.6% 假設交易量大致持平且通膨水準較為溫和。在 5000 萬美元的範圍內，因此一切都圍繞著數量和通貨膨脹假設。隨著通膨計畫的恢復，它將在今年年底和明年發生，但這只是個範圍。

It's basically flat to 4% volume and a bracket around inflation $50million to $150 million with kind of the midpoint being, more into the $8 million range, slightly below the average of the two.

它基本上與 4% 的交易量持平，通貨膨脹率在 5000 萬美元到 1.5 億美元之間，中間點在 800 萬美元左右，略低於兩者的平均值。

Got it thanks a lot.

明白了，非常感謝。

Matt Roberts from Raymond James.

雷蒙德詹姆斯公司的馬特羅伯茨。

Hey Mark, sorry, Mike, Steve, Mark, good morning. Steve, you gave some color on the inflation, but I was wanting to dig into those buckets a little bit further. I mean, if I think about it, seems like OCC is flat, fuels down, natural gas has certainly been volatile, but the portion of that hedge to protect there or any cost benefit pull forward you're expecting from either Middletown or net performance offsets.

嘿，馬克，對不起，麥克，史蒂夫，馬克，早安。史蒂夫，你對通貨膨脹進行了一些說明，但我想進一步深入探討這些問題。我的意思是，如果我考慮一下，似乎 OCC 是持平的，燃料下降，天然氣肯定是波動的，但是對沖的部分是為了保護那裡，或者任何成本效益的拉動，你期望從米德爾頓或淨績效抵消中獲得。

So just trying to think about the bucket contribution and in any offsets you may have excluding that price impact that benefits 2026 or so.

因此，只需嘗試考慮桶貢獻和任何可能產生的抵消，排除對 2026 年左右有利的價格影響。

Yeah, Matt. Steve, thank you. As we mentioned on our prepared remarks, the inflation was a little bit across the board for us, so the $20 million. Was in really four or five categories. Energy was up, chemicals were up modestly, the external paper that we acquired was up, logistics was up modestly, and then some of our other inputs. So you kind of had five categories all up, modestly $4million or $5 million and then as you mentioned, wood.

是的，馬特。史蒂夫，謝謝你。正如我們在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，通貨膨脹對我們來說有點全面，所以是 2000 萬美元。實際上分為四、五個類別。能源價格上漲，化學品價格小幅上漲，我們收購的外部紙張價格上漲，物流價格小幅上漲，然後我們的其他一些投入價格也上漲。所以，您總共有五個類別，價值適中，為 400 萬美元或 500 萬美元，然後正如您所提到的，還有木材。

The OCC was modestly favourable, so it wasn't fibre, and that's important, so it wasn't would cost, it wasn't OCC, but it was across the rest of the other major categories. We've assumed that that will continue on in the midpoint of our guide. $20 million roughly becomes. 80 to your point, there will be variability there. We do have some edges in place as well for things like net gas, but we have assumed that the 20 that we saw in the quarter would continue on for the year across a basket of commodities really not focused on wood or OCC.

OCC 略有優勢，所以它不是光纖，這一點很重要，所以它不是成本，不是 OCC，但它涵蓋了其他主要類別。我們假設這種情況將會在我們的指南中期繼續下去。 2000萬美元大概變成。 80 就你的觀點而言，那裡會有變化。對於淨天然氣等產品，我們確實也具有一些優勢，但我們假設，本季看到的 20 種情況將在今年繼續適用於一籃子商品，而這些商品實際上並不專注於木材或 OCC。

That's helpful. Thank you, Steve. Steve, if I may stick with you, but switch gears a little bit, in the remarks, you also know that there was on the repurchase program that there was optionality in how you approach that. I believe you said even in the coming months. So as you look at the CapEx timing, target leverage of 3.5 by year end and weigh that versus where the stock sits currently.

這很有幫助。謝謝你，史蒂夫。史蒂夫，如果我可以繼續你的主題，但稍微轉換主題，在評論中，你也知道在回購計劃中，你如何處理這個問題具有可選性。我相信您說過，甚至在接下來的幾個月裡。因此，當您查看資本支出時間時，目標槓桿率應為年底的 3.5，並將其與股票當前狀況進行權衡。

Are there any leverage limits or spend buckets that you need to get through before you really start executing on that shareholder return agenda? Thanks for taking the questions.

在真正開始執行股東回報計劃之前，是否有任何槓桿限製或支出限制需要滿足？感謝您回答這些問題。

Yeah, Mark, I'll start. Mike can add some commentary here. I think with everything that we've provided you, it's a bit intentional. What we have, we've taken our leverage, acceptable year-end target from three prior to kind of just 3.5 times. That gives us some opportunity.

是的，馬克，我先開始。麥克可以在這裡添加一些評論。我認為我們為您提供的一切都是有意為之。我們已經將槓桿率、可接受的年底目標從先前的 3 倍降至 3.5 倍。這給了我們一些機會。

For share repurchase optionality as we roll through the rest of this year, given that we have no debt coming due, we're in a good spot on our borrowing. We don't necessarily see the need for that to be taken down in the short to medium term, and so it does open up the window for opportunistic share repurchases, particularly given our confidence in the future cash flows and given what we see as we were just talking about Vision 2030 and Waco coming to life and the significant cash flow generation, so we are providing ourselves with the optionality around share repurchases here in the short term and then obviously what we've just really committed to is a multi-year vast majority of ours.

今年剩餘時間的股票回購選擇權，考慮到我們沒有到期債務，我們的借貸狀況良好。我們不一定認為有必要在短期至中期內取消這一政策，因此它確實為機會性股票回購打開了窗口，特別是考慮到我們對未來現金流的信心，以及我們所看到的，正如我們剛才所討論的，2030 年願景和 Waco 即將實現，以及顯著的現金流產生，所以我們在短期內為自己提供了絕大多數股票購買的選擇權，顯然絕大多數的股票是多年的股票。

Cash flows being applied to share repurchases, modest growing dividends for the next several years. So optionality in the short term, real strong commitment, very strong commitment with our board providing us with confidence in the $1.8 cumulative billion of share repurchase authorization over the next couple of years.

現金流用於股票回購，未來幾年股利適度成長。因此，短期內的可選性、真正強有力的承諾、董事會的非常強有力的承諾使我們對未來幾年累計 18 億美元的股票回購授權充滿信心。

Maybe Matt, the only thing I'd add to that, is that every investor conference I've gone to in the last, two years, I've been asked, okay, what's the next Waco? And my answer has been there isn't one. We have everything we need to run the company that we want to deliver on our vision 2030. It's about execution and innovation. Obviously, we need our customers.

也許馬特，我唯一想補充的是，在過去的兩年裡，我參加的每一個投資人會議，都被問到，好吧，下一個韋科是什麼？我的回答是沒有。我們擁有經營公司所需的一切，並希望實現我們的 2030 願景。這與執行和創新有關。顯然，我們需要我們的客戶。

Volumes to cooperate and get back to at least, a flat level here, and I believe they will even though we're dealing with the dislocation right now. But if there was ever any question around what our intention is, it should be clear we're focused on delivering and turning that cash flow back to our investors and debt holders, hard stopped.

交易量將進行合作並至少回到平穩水平，我相信即使我們現在正在處理混亂的情況，交易量也會恢復正常。但如果有人對我們的意圖有任何疑問，那麼應該清楚的是，我們專注於將現金流返還給我們的投資者和債權人，這是絕對不行的。

Thank you both again.

再次感謝你們兩位。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research.

馬克溫特勞布，海港研究。

Hey, thanks very much.

嘿，非常感謝。

So just wanted to follow up on the change in the guidance at the midpoint. It's about $210 million. You mentioned like $80 million from inflation, and I think that's going from 0 to 80, so I think that $80 million change. Just wanted to confirm that. And then that would leave $130 million, and you've talked about 2% volume declines.

所以只是想跟進中期指導的變化。大約是2.1億美元。您提到通貨膨脹導致 8000 萬美元，我認為這是從 0 到 80，所以我認為 8000 萬美元的變化。只是想確認一下。那麼就剩下 1.3 億美元了，而您談到了交易量下降 2%。

So I recognize there's presumably middle downtime as well related to that, but is that what's driving the rest of that that 130? It seems like a pretty big number or are there other variables that we should be thinking about at the midpoint for your change of guidance?

因此，我認識到可能還存在與此相關的中間停機時間，但這是導致其餘 130 的原因嗎？這個數字似乎很大，或者在您改變指導方針的過程中，我們還應該考慮其他變數嗎？

Yeah, Mark, it's Steve. You're fundamentally right. As Mike mentioned, we're going to run to demand this year. We'll be matching supply and demand. We will be taking inventory out of the business. So, the inflation assumption from $0 to $80 million is correct. That's $80 million of the roughly $200 million call down at the midpoint.

是的，馬克，我是史蒂夫。你基本上是對的。正如麥克所提到的，我們今年將滿足需求。我們將匹配供給和需求。我們將從企業中清除庫存。因此，從 0 美元到 8000 萬美元的通貨膨脹假設是正確的。這相當於中點約 2 億美元中的 8,000 萬美元。

There's a 400-basis point call down at the midpoint on volume plus 2 going to minus 2. That's a solid $350 million top line call down 30% margins. We've talked historically at just kind of a simple math gets you above $100 million and then the aggressively matching supply and demand.

交易量中點有 400 個基點的下降，從 +2 變成 -2。這是一個穩固的 3.5 億美元營業額預測，利潤率下降了 30%。我們曾經討論過，只需進行簡單的數學運算就能獲得超過 1 億美元的收益，然後積極匹配供需。

For the remainder of the year, as Mike mentioned, kind of picks up the rest. So, it's all about volume and inflation. The inflation we will recover, the volume aggressively matching supply and demand for the year. It's really all about volume.

正如麥克提到的那樣，在今年剩餘的時間裡，其餘的事情都會得到解決。所以，一切都與數量和通貨膨脹有關。通貨膨脹將會恢復，產量將與全年的供需水準相符。這實際上完全與音量有關。

Gotcha. I apologize. I that 4% makes perfect sense then to the to the $130 million. Okay, that's it I'll stop there.

明白了。我很抱歉。我認為 4% 對於 1.3 億美元來說非常合理。好的，我就講到這裡。

Thanks, for clarifying that, Mark.

謝謝，馬克，你澄清了這一點。

Lewis Merrick, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的劉易斯·梅里克。

Morning, Mike. Morning, Steve. Thank you for taking my questions. Just on the revised guidance, the upper and the lower end of the range now implies the DA margin of 17% to 19%, down from your prior 19% to 21% ambition.

早上好，麥克。早安，史蒂夫。感謝您回答我的問題。僅就修訂後的指導而言，該範圍的上限和下限現在意味著 DA 利潤率為 17% 至 19%，低於先前的 19% 至 21% 的目標。

How should we think about the sort of mid-term sustainable margin, in the longer term? Based on your comments, I think this is not a structural change in your thoughts, but maybe you could perhaps elaborate or lay out the building blocks to get back to that 19% to 21% range. Thank you.

長遠來看，我們應該如何看待中期可持續利潤率？根據您的評論，我認為這不是您思想上的結構性變化，但也許您可以詳細說明或列出基本要素以回到 19% 到 21% 的範圍。謝謝。

Yeah, Lewis and Steve, I'll start again, and Mike can add on, but you've touched on it actually extremely well. If you look at the midpoint of our guide, it's 18%.

是的，路易斯和史蒂夫，我會重新開始，麥克可以補充，但你們實際上已經非常好地觸及了這一點。如果你看一下我們的指南的中點，它是 18%。

About 100 basis points of that is the temporary realities of inflation coming into the business that we would plan to recover, which would return margins. Back towards that 19% range and then as we've articulated our confidence in the value of Waco coming to life, that $160 million of EBITDA over a couple of years is really the path back towards those.

其中約 100 個基點是通貨膨脹對業務造成的暫時影響，我們計劃恢復這些影響，從而恢復利潤率。回到 19% 的範圍，然後正如我們表達的對 Waco 價值的信心一樣，幾年內 1.6 億美元的 EBITDA 確實是回到這些範圍的途徑。

19% 20% margins that we have experienced over the last couple of years. So, it's really why our commitment to Vision 2030, our commitment to the cash flows remains intact. We've got to get through this inflation environment and recover that with price.

過去幾年我們的利潤率達到 19% 至 20%。所以，這就是為什麼我們對 2030 願景的承諾、對現金流的承諾仍然不變。我們必須渡過通膨環境，並透過價格來恢復。

But Waco very de-risked as Mike talked about a couple of moments ago, given the supply demand dynamic, and so that combination of price realization and then of course returns on ongoing investments in Waco is really the path back towards the kind of margins that that you just articulated.

但正如麥克剛才提到的，考慮到供需動態，韋科的風險非常低，因此價格實現和韋科持續投資的回報相結合，實際上是回到您剛才所說的利潤率的途徑。

Thanks, so I've just got one more. Just on pricing, I believe last quarter you spoke about a stable or neutral pricing environment with today's announcements are now guiding to a net positive price contribution in 2025.

謝謝，所以我只剩下一個了。僅就定價而言，我相信上個季度您談到了穩定或中性的定價環境，而今天的公告現在正引導著 2025 年的淨正價格貢獻。

No, we didn't. I think what's inherent in the guidance, Lewis, we knew we would be modestly negative on pricing here this year when we provided our original guide that really hasn't changed. I think what Ghansham was asking earlier is when do you start to see. Inflection, we would expect to see some inflection late this year and then recovery as we roll into '26. So we will have some modest negative pricing here in 2025 and we had expected that there's been no real change in that expectation.

不，我們沒有。路易斯，我認為指導中固有的內容是，當我們提供實際上沒有改變的原始指南時，我們知道今年我們對定價會略微持負面態度。我認為 Ghansham 之前問的是什麼時候開始看到。我們預計今年稍後會出現一些拐點，然後在進入26年時出現復甦。因此，2025 年我們將出現一些適度的負定價，我們預期這種預期不會發生真正的變化。

Who is the combination of all those pricing mechanisms that Steve outlined here, as you're aware, have about a 6 month offset between when we actually get inflation, we ultimately go recover it. So it, it'll have a de minimis impact on '25, but it's the setup for '26 that we're focused on.

如你所知，史蒂夫在這裡概述的所有定價機制的組合，在我們實際通貨膨脹和最終恢復通貨膨脹之間有大約 6 個月的抵消期。因此，它對 25 年的影響微乎其微，但我們關注的是 26 年的設定。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Thank you, Mike, Steve Mark for taking my questions. Just one from, for me, just looking at slide 14 in terms of the cash flow trajectory, wondering if there's any change in that trajectory given that you're starting from a lower base now.

謝謝麥克、史蒂夫馬克回答我的問題。對我來說，只需看一下幻燈片 14 中的現金流軌跡，想知道考慮到您現在從較低的基礎開始，該軌跡是否會改變。

So in terms of 2024, I believe you had it was negative cash flow given IAX year 2025, your EBITDA as pointed out earlier, it was $200 million more at the midpoint. So, in terms of trying to hit that $2.5 billion of free cash flow for 2024 and 2027, can you help us understand how you get there given the last few years something a little more challenging than expected.

因此，就 2024 年而言，我相信您的現金流為負，考慮到 2025 年 IAX，您的 EBITDA 如前所述，中點將增加 2 億美元。那麼，就試圖在 2024 年和 2027 年實現 25 億美元的自由現金流而言，考慮到過去幾年遇到的比預期更具挑戰性的情況，您能否幫助我們了解您是如何實現這一目標的？

Yeah, thanks Mike. Steve. You're correct in terms of that trajectory for us. We haven't moved off of that trajectory of the of the business being capable of inflecting into that $800 million to a billion. You're correct. The leap off point right here in 2025 would be at the lower end. Of that range, but the positive cash flow inflection for us is a bit undeniable given that CapEx will come down materially next year.

是的，謝謝邁克。史蒂夫。對於我們的發展軌跡而言，您的說法是正確的。我們還沒有脫離能夠將業務規模擴大到 8 億到 10 億美元的軌跡。你是對的。2025 年的起點將處於較低水準。雖然在這個範圍內，但考慮到明年資本支出將大幅下降，我們的現金流量出現正向轉折點是不可否認的。

The rest of the cash required to run the business interest, taxes, etc. Is pretty well bracketed. And so, our long-term confidence in those cash flows remains very high. The leap off point coming out of '25 into '26 modestly. That, but as Mike was mentioning earlier, we've been very aggressive about cash flow generation this year. Inventory will be going down as the year plays itself out.

經營業務所需的其餘現金利息、稅金等都分類得很好。因此，我們對這些現金流的長期信心仍然很高。起點從 25 年適度過渡到 26 年。但正如麥克之前提到的，我們今年在現金流創造方面非常積極。隨著一年的結束，庫存將會下降。

So actual cash flow generation this year is going to be really at or above where we originally had expected it. It's just we're getting there with a little different even the outcome given the challenges our customers are facing volumetrically like.

因此，今年的實際現金流將達到或超過我們最初的預期。只是，考慮到我們的客戶在數量上面臨的挑戰，我們的結果會略有不同。

No, I think you summarized it well, Steve. I mean, Michael, last year we did $1.2 billion of CapEx. This year $700 million and next year we'll ramp to 5% or below. So that's those are hard numbers. I mentioned, the Waco startup being de-risk, and I saw your note, about the capacity that's been removed. I mean, you're absolutely right, from a net standpoint, when you look at the Waco ramp, the.

不，我認為你總結得很好，史蒂夫。我的意思是，邁克爾，去年我們的資本支出為 12 億美元。今年是 7 億美元，明年我們將增加至 5% 或以下。所以這些都是確切的數字。我提到過，Waco 的啟動正在降低風險，我也看到了您關於已移除的產能的說明。我的意思是，從網路角度來看，你完全正確，當你看到韋科坡道。

To a recycled paper board market is in balance and so, our confidence that we'll deliver that $160 million on that project is incredibly high. And so, you put the combination of those things together, focus on running to demand, expecting that, our customers will do better in 2026. We need them to get back to at least, a flat volumetric, balance there or better.

由於再生紙板市場處於平衡狀態，因此，我們對在該項目上投入 1.6 億美元的信心非常高。因此，你把這些因素結合起來，專注於滿足需求，並期望我們的客戶在 2026 年會做得更好。我們需要它們至少恢復到平坦的體積平衡或更好的狀態。

Look, they've been doing this for Decades and they've been through tough times before, and while this is a challenge for them for the reasons I've articulated earlier in the call, my confidence level that they will figure it out is high. And so, you put that all together, our confidence in our vision 2030 and the cash flow. That are going to be generated, is extremely high and that's really why the board of directors along with management, made the decision to announce today that the share buyback that we're put in place. So hopefully that gives you a little bit more context.

你看，他們已經這樣做了幾十年，以前也經歷過艱難時期，雖然這對他們來說是一個挑戰，原因我在電話中早些時候已經闡述過了，但我對他們會解決這個問題很有信心。所以，把所有這些放在一起，我們對 2030 年願景和現金流的信心。所要產生的收益非常高，這也是為什麼董事會和管理階層今天決定宣布實施股票回購的原因。希望這能給你更多的背景資訊。

That's great, thanks. And one quick follow up just in terms of the incremental $80 million of Waco we both in '26 and '27, can you just help us understand the volume under assumptions underlying that EBITDA?

太好了，謝謝。關於我們在 26 年和 27 年 Waco 的 8000 萬美元增量，您能否幫助我們了解該 EBITDA 假設下的交易量？

Well, it's a couple of things, as we've talked about, I think, in the past, close to $100 million of it is just fixed cost removal. Again, smaller, older facilities of our own that will be closed down. And then the balance of it was incremental tons that would flow through it. And again, I think today's announcement by several of our competitors about them removing capacity from the marketplace should again give a lot of confidence that that remaining $60 million is solid.

嗯，有幾件事，正如我們討論過的，我認為，在過去，其中近 1 億美元只是固定成本的消除。再次，我們自己的一些規模較小、較舊的設施將被關閉。然後它的平衡就是流經它的增量噸數。而且，我認為，我們的幾家競爭對手今天宣布將從市場上撤出產能，這應該會再次讓人們相信，剩下的 6,000 萬美元是穩固的。

So that's how it. Works and it's over a two-year period of time. We've already announced, the Middletown closure will be down by the end of May, June 1, and then our East Angus facility in Quebec will also, be closed. We're taking a look at the timing just slightly. It might just change moderately depending on trade and tariffs here. We need to make sure that we take care of our customers, our Canadian customers, but ultimately it will also go down that's a key part of the ramp of the EBITDA.

就是這樣。工作已經持續了兩年多的時間。我們已經宣布，米德爾敦工廠將於 5 月底（6 月 1 日）關閉，隨後我們位於魁北克的東安格斯工廠也將關閉。我們正在稍微看一下時間。它可能只是根據這裡的貿易和關稅而適度變化。我們需要確保照顧好我們的客戶，我們的加拿大客戶，但最終它也會下降，這是 EBITDA 上升的關鍵部分。

Got it. Thank you very much.

知道了。非常感謝。

Gabrial Hajde, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的 Gabrial Hajde。

Mike, see, Mark, good morning. Bear with me first. Thanks for taking the question. Bear with me for a second. If I were putting together a case study and thinking about the North American consumer board market, one could argue you had a competitor that may be your largest, that was undergoing a pretty big transition, change of ownership, etc.

麥克，瞧，馬克，早安。請先忍耐一下。感謝您回答這個問題。請稍等片刻。如果我正在進行案例研究並思考北美消費紙板市場，人們可能會說你有一個可能是你最大的競爭對手，並且正在經歷相當大的轉型、所有權變更等。

You had another one that was transitioning their strategy. You have a new entrant in North America, etc. Meanwhile, you guys were really kind of had offense on the field. You had low-cost assets. Incumbent supplier position, etc.

還有另一個正在轉變其策略的人。你們在北美有新進者，等等。同時，你們在球場上確實有點進攻。你擁有低成本資產。現任供應商職位等

I'm curious, Mike, if we play that forward for the next couple of years now these folks have got their feet under them. Are you seeing more RFPs come into the business, your customers may be coming back to you and asking for better terms, as they're facing their own inflationary headwinds.

麥克，我很好奇，如果我們在接下來的幾年裡繼續這樣做，這些人現在已經站穩了腳步。您是否看到越來越多的 RFP 進入您的企業，您的客戶可能會回來找您並要求更好的條款，因為他們面臨著自己的通膨逆風。

And somewhat related you mentioned Snap and maha I don't think we've yet seen any impacts of that directly so I'm just curious if that's in your forward guide, or if you've seen anything and we're just not aware of it.

與您提到的 Snap 和 maha 有點相關，我認為我們還沒有直接看到它的影響，所以我只是好奇這是否在您的前瞻性指南中，或者您是否看到了什麼，而我們只是沒有意識到。

Well, I'll take that first. The answer that's all relatively new stuff, so the answer is that's considered in the guide, but it isn't something we've seen yet, which is part of why you see our moved at two for the full year, because there's a lot of headwinds out there in the near term GAAP, so I'll start with that. In terms of, the competitive landscape, look, I think in the last 24 hours, you see that the move that we're making in Waco, it's not just the cost structure we've got, it's the quality and the capability that we have on that that paperboard manufacturing facility that we have in Waco and the one we have in Kalamazoo.

好吧，我先接受這個。答案是，這都是相對較新的東西，所以答案是在指南中考慮到了這一點，但這不是我們還沒有看到的東西，這也是為什麼你看到我們的全年增長率為 2 的原因之一，因為短期內 GAAP 面臨很多阻力，所以我將從這個開始。就競爭格局而言，我認為在過去的 24 小時內，您會看到我們在韋科採取的舉措，不僅僅是我們的成本結構，還包括我們在韋科和卡拉馬祖的紙板製造工廠的品質和能力。

They're tough to compete with and people are deciding where they want to put their cap backs and how they want to spend their money. The new entrant you're talking about, to be fair, they just bought somebody else's, mill that was already there, so it's not like they may be new to this market, but it's not new, capacity in here. We've been competing against that already.

他們的競爭非常激烈，人們正在決定把錢放在哪裡以及如何花錢。公平地說，您所說的新進入者只是購買了別人已經存在的工廠，因此他們可能不是這個市場的新手，但這裡的產能也不是新的。我們已開始與之競爭。

The one that is new is the SBS piece that I referenced earlier in the In my comments and that'll come online in the second quarter of this year, that does add 450,000 tons, so that'll have to be dealt with and I already kind of gave the answer there, so I won't repeat myself, but. Look, our customers, they're always trying to find value.

新的是 SBS 的文章，我之前在評論中提到過，它將在今年第二季度上線，這確實增加了 450,000 噸，所以必須處理這個問題，我已經在那裡給出了答案，所以我就不再重複了，但是。瞧，我們的客戶總是在努力尋找價值。

They have to these are very sophisticated, global consumer goods companies and beverage companies. This is not new. We've dealt with that kind of competitive pressure for a long time. We do well in that environment. We've got a well invested, low cost, well geographically covered, footprint in North America and Europe that really help us take care of those customers.

他們必須是這些非常複雜的全球消費品公司和飲料公司。這並不是什麼新鮮事。我們長期以來一直在應對這種競爭壓力。我們在那種環境中做得很好。我們在北美和歐洲的投資充足、成本低廉、地域覆蓋廣泛，這確實有助於我們服務這些客戶。

And again, now. More than ever, they need to make sure that they've got regional supply chains that actually take care of them, particularly on this this tariff and trade, imbalances that are kind of going on right now and well documented and discussed.

現在再說一次。他們比以往任何時候都更需要確保擁有能夠真正照顧到他們的區域供應鏈，特別是在關稅和貿易不平衡問題上，這些問題目前正在發生，並且有充分的記錄和討論。

So I like how we're, positioned and I would actually argue we're still on offense, and focused on, taking care of our customers each and every day, so we don't mind that kind of competition. As a matter of fact, we embrace it.

所以我喜歡我們的定位，實際上我認為我們仍然處於進攻狀態，並且專注於每天照顧我們的客戶，所以我們不介意這種競爭。事實上，我們接受它。

Thank you for that, Mike. One last one, we talked about bridges for this year's EBITDA. But I didn't hear much in the way of startup costs associated with Waco. Is there a number associated with that? Is it in the 1.5? Thank you.

謝謝你，麥克。最後，我們討論了今年 EBITDA 的橋樑。但我並沒有聽到太多有關韋科的啟動成本的資訊。有與之相關的數字嗎？是在 1.5 嗎？謝謝。

Yeah, Steve, in the appendix of our materials we've provided, there's some sort of cash cost, we provided the range in the appendix $65 million to $75 million, most of that will be below the line just kind of startup related associated with that. It's also embedded obviously in our cash flow expectations for the year.

是的，史蒂夫，在我們提供的材料附錄中，有一些現金成本，我們在附錄中提供了 6500 萬美元到 7500 萬美元的範圍，其中大部分都低於與此相關的啟動成本。這顯然也體現在我們對今年的現金流預期。

So that's coming in about where we expected it to be it it's moved around a few million dollars. We just wanted to provide the clarity, but the $1.5 million is, as within it are expected, adjusted EBITDA midpoint for the year. So, we have some cash startup costs. Honestly, below the line and the $1.5 is the operating you know go forward expectations for this year.

所以，這大概是我們預期的金額，大約有幾百萬美元。我們只是想提供清晰的信息，但 150 萬美元是預期中的年度調整後 EBITDA 中點。所以，我們有一些現金啟動成本。老實說，低於這一水平，1.5 美元就是今年的營運預期。

Thank you.

謝謝。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Thanks very much, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. Mike, Steve, first question, just a point of clarification. So, it, you talked about the optionality on cash flow and the fact that you like your balance sheet position, you've given yourself a little bit of additional headroom, that's my phrase, not yours, for the end of the year in terms of where leverage should be and the fact that you have optionality now, but then on doing repurchases.

非常感謝大家。早安.謝謝你的詳細資料。麥克、史蒂夫，第一個問題，只是想澄清一點。因此，您談到了現金流的可選性，以及您喜歡資產負債表狀況的事實，您給自己留出了一點額外的空間，這是我的說法，不是您的，就年底槓桿率應該在哪里以及您現在擁有可選性這一事實而言，但隨後進行回購。

But I also thought I heard you say at one point that you want to see the volume picture improve for your customers. So, I just want to make sure whatever options you have right now, you have them, you, if you'd like to buy stock back, you could do it right now. You're not waiting on your customers' volumes to improve, or are you? How should I think about that? And I had a question on sort of volume and the rest of the year.

但我也記得我曾聽您說過，您希望看到客戶的銷售情況有所改善。所以，我只是想確保你現在擁有的任何選擇，你都有，如果你想回購股票，你現在就可以這麼做。您不會在等待客戶數量的增加吧？我該如何考慮這個問題？我對今年剩餘時間的銷售和銷售情況有疑問。

Yeah, George, thank you for that point of clarification. No, we don't need to wait for customers to have volume and flexion for us to be opportunistic in buying back shares so that if there was an implied correlation there unintended. We obviously believe over time that our customers will. Address the issues around them, return to more normalized volumes, but no, we don't need to wait for that. Our cash flow generation capabilities this year are very good balance sheets in a good place, and obviously we have the optionality to do so, now.

是的，喬治，謝謝你的澄清。不，我們不需要等待客戶有數量和彈性，我們才有機會回購股票，這樣如果有隱含的相關性，那就出乎意料了。我們顯然相信，隨著時間的推移，我們的客戶會這麼做。解決周圍的問題，恢復到更正常的音量，但不，我們不需要等待那個。我們今年的現金流量產生能力非常好，資產負債表狀況良好，而且顯然我們現在有這樣做的選擇權。

Okay, thanks for that, Steve. The second question I had, as we look out to the rest of the year, I did the math right, I think you're looking at roughly about an 8% drop year on year in EBITDA over the remaining nine months and I think the first quarter when we just for Augusta was down over double digits, like 12%, 13%, somewhere in that range.

好的，謝謝你，史蒂夫。我的第二個問題是，當我們展望今年剩餘時間時，我計算得沒錯，我認為剩餘 9 個月的 EBITDA 同比下降大約為 8%，而我認為第一季度奧古斯塔的降幅超過了兩位數，例如 12%、13%，大概在這個範圍內。

Yet, even though the even die year on year comparison is getting better, I mean it's still worse than you would have liked, but it is getting better, the volume picture has seemingly gotten a bit worse in terms of your guidance change.

然而，儘管同比平均死亡人數有所好轉，但我的意思是，情況仍然比你想像的要糟糕，但情況正在好轉，從你的指導變化來看，成交量情況似乎變得更糟了。

The pricing effect that you talked about, doesn't really happen until later in the year. It's really more of a '26 phenomenon. So, what else might help you close the GAAP on performance over the rest of the nine months that's embedded in your guidance, even as volume has gotten a little bit worse? How would you have us think about that? Thanks, and good luck in the quarter.

您談到的定價效應實際上要到今年稍後才會出現。這其實更像是一種 26 年現象。那麼，即使交易量有所下降，還有什麼可以幫助您在剩餘的九個月內按照 GAAP 完成業績指引呢？您希望我們怎麼看待這個問題？謝謝，祝本季好運。

Yeah, thanks, George. The first half for us. Is more assertive relative to planned maintenance downtime. We have very large normal maintenance downtime at Texarkana in Q2, and obviously we're matching supply and demand pretty aggressively here at Q1 and then we'll continue into Q2.

是的，謝謝，喬治。對我們來說是上半場。相對於規劃維護停機時間而言更有自信。我們在第二季度在特克薩卡納有非常長的正常維護停機時間，顯然我們在第一季非常積極地匹配供需，然後我們將繼續進入第二季度。

The second half of the year does allow us to run a little more efficiently at a little higher rate, even with the volume assumptions that are here. So it's more of a Maintenance cost issue first half, second half such that margins in the first half will be modestly below kind of in that 17% range, and then we expect to back into the 19% range in the second half of the year in the midpoint of our guide. So it's a little more maintenance oriented as opposed to a difference in volume assumptions.

即使按照現有的產量假設，下半年我們確實能夠以更高的速度更有效率地運作。因此，上半年更多的是維護成本問題，下半年的利潤率將略低於 17% 的範圍，然後我們預計下半年的利潤率將回到指導中點的 19% 的範圍。因此，它更側重於維護，而不是體積假設的差異。

I think maybe the only thing I would add to that, George, is that usually what we see when we see a volumetric slowdown, we see our input costs go down. In this case we actually saw them go up, and if you look back to 2008, inflation went from 3% down to like 0.5% by 2010. So, if we do in the back half of this year. See less inflation than the $80 million at the midpoint that we've targeted, that could be a positive too, but it's just, this one's a little different because just the dislocation of some of the trade flows is causing some distortion of some of the things that we buy, but maybe that settles down, it gets a little bit more normalized here in the months to come, and that could be a tailwind.

喬治，我想也許我唯一要補充的是，通常當我們看到產量放緩時，我們的投入成本就會下降。在這種情況下，我們實際上看到它們上升，如果回顧 2008 年，通貨膨脹率從 3% 下降到 2010 年的 0.5% 左右。所以，如果我們在今年下半年這樣做的話。如果通膨率低於我們設定的 8000 萬美元的中點目標，這也可能是一件好事，但這一次的情況略有不同，因為部分貿易流的錯位導致我們購買的一些東西出現扭曲，但也許這種情況會穩定下來，在未來幾個月內會變得更加正常化，這可能是一個順風。

The thoughts, guys. Good luck in the quarter.

各位，這就是想法。祝本季好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. We have reached the allotted time for Q&A. I will now hand the conference back to Mr. Doss for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

謝謝。我們已經到了問答的預定時間。現在我將會議交還給多斯先生，請他作閉幕發言。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and thank you everyone for joining us on the call today. 2025 will be a challenging year for our CPG and QSR customers. High food prices and an uncertain economic environment cause consumers to pull back and embrace private label alternatives.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。 2025 年對我們的 CPG 和 QSR 客戶來說將是充滿挑戰的一年。高昂的食品價格和不確定的經濟環境導致消費者退縮並轉向自有品牌替代品。

New medical developments like GLP one and the new Maha policy initiatives are both a risk and an opportunity.

GLP one 和新的 Maha 政策措施等新的醫療發展既是風險也是機會。

That if we stand back, We can put these near term pressures in a better perspective. Product reformulation is nothing new. Our customers are experts at that. Aligning and realigning products to deliver what consumers want and need and at a reasonable price point is a skill set that helped make our customers the global leaders they are.

如果我們退一步來看，我們就能更好地看待這些短期壓力。產品配方的改變並不是什麼新鮮事。我們的客戶就是這方面的專家。透過調整和重新調整產品來滿足消費者的需求，並以合理的價格提供產品，這是一套技能，可以幫助我們的客戶成為全球領導者。

Finding the right formula for success doesn't happen overnight. At graphic packaging, we spent the last 8 years building and expanding our innovation and execution capabilities, and we are exceptionally well positioned to meet our customers' changing needs to support their growth strategies.

找到成功的正確秘訣並非一朝一夕就能實現的。在圖形包裝方面，我們花了 8 年建立和擴展我們的創新和執行能力，我們完全有能力滿足客戶不斷變化的需求，並支持他們的成長策略。

We are positioned to generate cash well in excess of our needs and to use that cash to provide substantial value for our stockholders for years to come.

我們有能力產生遠超我們需求的現金，並利用這些現金在未來幾年為我們的股東提供巨大的價值。

I want to thank our 23,000 employees for their dedication and our and our stockholders for their confidence in graphic package.

我要感謝我們 23,000 名員工的奉獻精神以及我們和股東對圖形包的信任。

Thank you and have a good day.

謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you, everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝大家，今天的活動就到此結束。現在您可以斷開連接並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。