Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Graphic Packaging third-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 Graphic Packaging 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mark Connolly, Senior Vice President of Investor Strategy and Development. The floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給你們的主持人，投資者策略與發展高級副總裁馬克康諾利。現在輪到你發言了。

Good morning. We have with us today Mike Doss, President and Chief Executive Officer; Steve Scherger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Chuck Lischer, Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer. During this call, we will reference our third-quarter 2025 earnings presentation available through this webcast and on our website at www.graphicpkg.com.

早安.今天在場的有：總裁兼首席執行官邁克·多斯；執行副總裁兼首席財務官史蒂夫·舍格；以及高級副總裁兼首席會計官查克·利舍爾。在本次電話會議中，我們將提及我們 2025 年第三季收益演示文稿，可透過本次網路直播和我們的網站 www.graphicpkg.com 取得。

Today's presentation will include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to the factors identified in today's press release and in our SEC filings.

今天的演講將包含1995年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於今天新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所列的因素。

Now let me turn the call over to Mike.

現在我把電話交給麥克。

Thank you, Mark, and good morning and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our call today. I want to start by taking a moment to acknowledge the enormous contributions that Steve Scherger has made over the past decade as Graphic Packaging's Chief Financial Officer. As announced last month, Steve has decided to leave Graphic Packaging to take on a new challenge. He has stayed with us through this week to close the books on our third quarter, and I appreciate that.

謝謝你，馬克，早安，下午好。感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。首先，我想花一點時間來感謝史蒂夫·舍格爾在過去十年中作為 Graphic Packaging 財務長所做的巨大貢獻。正如上個月宣布的那樣，史蒂夫決定離開 Graphic Packaging 去迎接新的挑戰。他本週一直和我們在一起，幫助我們完成第三季的帳目結算，我對此非常感激。

Steve was my partner in the development and execution of our business transformation, from the acquisition of international papers consumer business and more than a dozen acquisitions to our Kalamazoo and Waco investments. His impact on the team we have built and the culture we have created at Graphic Packaging will shape our company for years to come. I will miss his counsel.

從收購國際紙業消費業務和十幾項收購，到我們在卡拉馬祖和韋科的投資，史蒂夫一直是我在業務轉型發展和執行方面的合作夥伴。他對我們組建的團隊以及我們在 Graphic Packaging 創造的企業文化的影響，將在未來幾年塑造我們公司。我會懷念他的建議。

I'm pleased to introduce Chuck Lischer, who Steve hired in 2019 as our Chief Accounting Officer. Chuck will take on the new role of Interim Chief Financial Officer. Chuck has been a key member of our leadership team and involved in every major decision Steve and I have made. We are fortunate to have someone with Chuck's deep knowledge stepping in as we pivot from Vision 2025's investment to Vision 2030's free cash flow.

我很高興向大家介紹 Chuck Lischer，他是 Steve 在 2019 年聘請的首席會計長。Chuck將擔任臨時財務長這項新職位。Chuck一直是我們領導團隊的重要成員，參與了Steve和我所做的每一個重大決定。我們很幸運能有像 Chuck 這樣擁有深厚知識的人加入我們，幫助我們從「2025 年願景」的投資轉向「2030 年願景」的自由現金流。

Now let's turn to the quarter. Graphic Packaging sales were $2.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA was $383 million, adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.5%, and adjusted EPS was $0.58. While the challenges of a stretched consumer and the impact on grocery volumes is well chronicled, we are focused on what we can control. We executed well in the quarter, made progress on costs, and reduced inventory.

現在我們來看季度。Graphic Packaging 的銷售額為 22 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 3.83 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 17.5%，調整後每股收益為 0.58 美元。儘管消費者支出緊張以及對食品雜貨銷售的影響已廣為人知，但我們專注於我們能夠控制的因素。本季我們執行情況良好，成本控制取得進展，庫存減少。

Meanwhile, our innovation platform continues to open up new markets for paperboard packaging, once again allowing us to outperform the broader markets we serve. Turning to slide 3, I'm pleased to announce that we produced the first commercially saleable roll of paperboard at our Waco recycled paperboard manufacturing facility on October 24. That was significantly earlier than our plan and faster even than our highly successful K2 startup in Kalamazoo in 2022.

同時，我們的創新平台不斷為紙板包裝開闢新市場，再次使我們能夠超越我們所服務的更廣泛的市場。翻到第 3 張投影片，我很高興地宣布，我們在 10 月 24 日於韋科再生紙板製造廠生產了第一卷可供商業銷售的紙板。這比我們的計畫提前了許多，甚至比我們在 2022 年於卡拉馬祖成功創辦的 K2 新創公司還要快。

I could not be more proud of our team, many of whom were part our team that built our Kalamazoo K2 machine. I want to thank our contractors and I'm incredibly grateful for the strong support we received from the Waco community, from Governor Abbott, and the State of Texas. Waco is Graphic Packaging's largest capital investment and extends our economic and quality advantage in recycled paperboard across all of North America.

我為我們的團隊感到無比自豪，他們中的許多人都曾參與建造我們的卡拉馬祖 K2 機器。我要感謝我們的承包商，並衷心感謝韋科社區、阿博特州長和德克薩斯州給予我們的大力支持。Waco 是 Graphic Packaging 最大的資本投資項目，它將我們在再生紙板領域的經濟和品質優勢擴展到了整個北美地區。

Waco is a critical enabler for the consumer packaging we sell, improving surety of supply, reducing waste, allowing us to only offer the highest-quality packaging materials, and expanding the markets our recycled paperboard packaging can serve. Having Waco in our system gives us competitive advantage that will last for decades. The Waco facility sits in the Texas Triangle, which is a highly attractive location for recovered fiber sourcing, given its proximity to four major cities.

Waco 是我們銷售的消費品包裝的關鍵推動者，它提高了供應的穩定性，減少了浪費，使我們能夠只提供最高品質的包裝材料，並擴大了我們的再生紙板包裝可以服務的市場。將韋科納入我們的體系，將使我們獲得持續數十年的競爭優勢。韋科工廠位於德州三角區，由於靠近四個主要城市，因此對於回收纖維的來源來說，這是一個極具吸引力的地點。

Our team also developed an internal fiber sourcing plan, which allows us to bring scrap paperboard from our packaging facilities to Waco. This is exceptionally clean and very low-cost fiber. True circularity isn't just about the environment. It's done right. It's also about sound business economics. By closing the loop between our own manufacturing system scrap and Waco's recovered fiber sourcing, we dramatically reduce overall system waste while simultaneously improving our production economics.

我們的團隊還制定了內部纖維採購計劃，使我們能夠將包裝工廠的廢紙板運送到韋科。這是非常乾淨且成本極低的纖維。真正的循環經濟不僅僅是關乎環境。做得對。這也關乎合理的商業經濟學。透過閉合我們自身製造系統廢棄物與韋科回收纖維來源之間的循環，我們大幅減少了整個系統的浪費，同時提高了生產經濟效益。

And with the inclusion of paper cups in the Recycled Materials Association's recently updated guidelines, a key strategic investment we made at Waco looks even better. We designed Waco to have the capability to process up to 15 million paper cups a da. And as cup collection ramps up, Graphic Packaging will play a key role in assuring this high-value fiber source is put to good use, rather than ending up as landfill.

隨著紙杯被納入回收材料協會最近更新的指導方針，我們在韋科進行的一項關鍵策略投資看起來更加明智了。我們設計的Waco工廠每天最多可處理1500萬個紙杯。隨著杯子回收量的增加，Graphic Packaging 將在確保這種高價值纖維資源得到有效利用，而不是最終被填埋方面發揮關鍵作用。

As previously announced, the ramp up to full production at Waco is expected to take 12 to 18 months. The startup of Waco marks the end of our Vision 2025 transformation program. We now have everything we need: strong positions across a wide range of markets to drive top-line consistency, the packaging industry's best innovation team to open new markets for paperboard, and an integrated packaging platform with durable, substantial long-term competitive advantage.

正如先前宣布的那樣，韋科工廠全面投產預計需要 12 到 18 個月。Waco 的啟動標誌著我們「2025願景」轉型計畫的結束。我們現在擁有所需的一切：在廣泛的市場中佔據強大的地位，以推動營收的穩定成長；擁有包裝產業最優秀的創新團隊，為紙板開闢新的市場；以及擁有持久、實質長期競爭優勢的整合包裝平台。

On October 30, we formally announced that our East Angus recycled paperboard manufacturing facility will cease production December 23. Taken together with our earlier Middletown closure and the recent closures by others, Waco will add just 2% to total capacity, only about 75,000 tonnes more than the industry had at the start of 2025. As was the case in Kalamazoo, we do not expect the startup of Waco to materially impact recycled paperboard market balance. Graphic Packaging has a long and consistent practice of matching our forward production to our demand for our packaging.

10 月 30 日，我們正式宣布，位於東安格斯的再生紙板製造廠將於 12 月 23 日停止生產。加上我們先前關閉的米德爾頓工廠以及其他工廠最近的關閉，韋科工廠只會增加總產能的 2%，比 2025 年初的行業產能僅多出約 75,000 噸。與卡拉馬祖的情況一樣，我們預期韋科的投產不會對再生紙板市場平衡產生實質影響。Graphic Packaging 一直以來都堅持將前期生產與包裝需求相匹配。

Turning to slide 4, the pressure on the consumers is evident by the grocery volumes. Increasingly, we hear from our CPG customers that the consumer market has bifurcated. Upper-income consumers are still spending but are spending differently and more carefully. Lower-income consumers continue to cut back as food prices rise further. And in the third quarter, we also saw more of our CPG customers timing their purchases as a way to manage cash, which has made order flows less predictable.

翻到第 4 張投影片，從食品雜貨的銷售量可以看出消費者面臨的壓力。我們從消費品客戶那裡越來越多地聽到這樣的說法：消費市場已經分化。高收入消費者仍在消費，但消費方式有所不同，也較為謹慎。隨著食品價格進一步上漲，低收入消費者持續減少支出。第三季度，我們也看到更多消費品客戶透過調整採購時間來管理現金，這使得訂單流變得更加難以預測。

In the third quarter, our volumes were down 2% year on year, again outperforming most of the markets we serve. We also saw some incremental price deterioration, not so much in paperboard but in packaging pricing. Recycled and unbleached packaging markets are in good balance, but we continue to see highly unusual competitive pressure from bleached packaging producers who normally want to choose to compete directly with recycled because their costs are so much higher.

第三季度，我們的銷量年減了 2%，再次優於我們所服務的大多數市場。我們也看到一些價格逐漸惡化，紙板價格的惡化程度不大，但包裝價格的惡化程度較大。再生包裝和未漂白包裝市場目前處於良好平衡狀態，但我們仍然看到來自漂白包裝生產商的異常激烈的競爭壓力，他們通常希望選擇與再生包裝直接競爭，因為他們的成本要高得多。

Yet we are seeing competitors offering discounts on bleached packaging that essentially matches recycled packaging pricing, despite the obvious lack of profitability that those kinds of prices apply. Given that bleached capital costs and annual sustaining capital requirements are dramatically higher, we don't believe that this situation is sustainable. With the investments we have made at Kalamazoo and Waco, we can match bleached paperboard's appearance and print performance with a sheet that costs significantly less to make on equipment that requires a fraction of the capital to maintain.

然而，我們看到競爭對手提供的漂白包裝折扣與再生包裝的價格基本持平，儘管這種價格顯然沒有盈利空間。鑑於漂白資本成本和年度維持資本需求大幅增加，我們認為這種情況是不可持續的。憑藉我們在卡拉馬祖和韋科的投資，我們可以用成本低得多的設備生產出外觀和印刷性能與漂白紙板相當的紙張，而且維護所需的資金也少得多。

We believe that our investments have put us in the sweet spot for all three packaging substrates and that our economics and quality create a durable, long-term competitive advantage. Over time, we expect our recycled paperboard to replace more expensive bleached paperboard in a range of markets.

我們相信，我們的投資使我們在所有三種包裝基材方面都處於最佳位置，我們的經濟效益和品質創造了持久的長期競爭優勢。隨著時間的推移，我們預計我們的再生紙板將在多個市場取代價格更高的漂白紙板。

As we discussed last quarter, we are not a meaningful participant in open-market bleached paperboard. But the impact of a large imbalance in that market has been to reduce the pricing power in recycled and unbleached packaging. Recycled and unbleached are our primary markets, and both are healthy and in good balance. So this is really about margin pressure rather than market share.

正如我們上個季度所討論的，我們並不是公開市場漂白紙板的重要參與者。但該市場嚴重失衡的影響是降低了再生包裝和未漂白包裝的定價能力。回收和未漂白是我們的主要市場，兩者都健康且平衡。所以，這其實是利潤率壓力的問題，而不是市佔率的問題。

Looking at our markets, food and household products were steady overall, while beverage and food service were weaker. Health and beauty, which is mostly a European business for us, was again solid. Beverage promotion returned to a relatively normal pattern this year, but promotional activity for food and food service remains highly targeted, an approach which has not driven a meaningful volume for foot traffic.

從市場來看，食品和家居用品整體保持穩定，而飲料和餐飲服務則較為疲軟。健康與美容業務（對我們來說，這主要是一項歐洲業務）再次表現穩健。今年飲料促銷活動恢復了相對正常的模式，但食品和餐飲服務的促銷活動仍然具有很強的針對性，這種做法並沒有帶來顯著的客流量成長。

Mass retail, super stores, and discount grocers continue to take share from traditional grocers. That is one of the driving forces behind the surge in private label offerings, although traditional grocers have increasingly embraced store brands as well. In the past two years, literally thousands of private-label and store brand SKUs have been introduced, and trademark data suggests the trend will continue into 2026. Meanwhile, our innovation portfolio continues to expand. Innovation is steadily opening up new markets for our paperboard packaging, from household products to protein to produce.

大眾零售、大型超市和折扣雜貨店不斷蠶食傳統雜貨店的市場份額。這是自有品牌產品激增背後的驅動力之一，儘管傳統雜貨商也越來越接受自有品牌。在過去的兩年裡，已經推出了數以千計的自有品牌和商店品牌 SKU，商標數據顯示，這一趨勢將持續到 2026 年。同時，我們的創新產品組合也在不斷擴大。創新正不斷為我們的紙板包裝開闢新的市場，從家居用品到蛋白質產品，再到農產品。

Turning to slide 5, the breadth and depth of our consumer staples packaging portfolio is especially important at times like these, where consumer purchasing patterns are rapidly evolving. We are at every grocery aisle in supermarkets and superstores and are a major packaging supplier to quick-service restaurants. We are introducing recycled paperboard packaging to more markets and more categories, including household products and health and beauty, as customers increasingly embrace our paperboard as a less expensive, more responsible choice that consumers prefer.

翻到第 5 張投影片，在消費者購買模式快速變化的當下，我們消費必需品包裝組合的廣度和深度顯得格外重要。我們的產品遍佈超市和大型超市的每個食品雜貨貨架，並且是快餐店的主要包裝供應商。我們正在將再生紙板包裝引入更多市場和更多類別，包括家居用品和健康美容產品，因為消費者越來越接受我們的紙板，認為它是一種更便宜、更負責任的選擇。

Turning to slide 6, excluding the effect of FX, third-quarter packaging sales were down approximately 2% year over year, a modest deceleration from second-quarter market trends. Food results were roughly flat overall, with continued uneven performance in the Americas partially offset by strength in international; although as we have previously noted, consumers in our international markets are also feeling the stress of high prices.

翻到第 6 張投影片，剔除匯率影響，第三季包裝銷售額年減約 2%，較第二季市場趨勢略為放緩。食品業務整體表現大致持平，美洲地區持續不均衡的表現被國際市場的強勁表現部分抵消；儘管我們先前指出，國際市場的消費者也感受到了高物價帶來的壓力。

As in past quarters, no clear category trends are emerging. We see targeted promotion that shifts from product to product and brand to brand but has been insufficient to drive overall volumes higher. As our customers evaluate the effectiveness of promotion, they are also developing clear insights into price points where customer purchases either grow or decline rapidly.

與過去幾季一樣，沒有出現明顯的品類趨勢。我們看到，針對不同產品和品牌的促銷活動不斷變化，但不足以推動整體銷售成長。當我們的顧客評估促銷效果時，他們也逐漸清楚地了解到顧客購買量在哪些價格點上會快速成長或下降。

So for example, a $0.25 price increase of $4.50 to $4.75 may not cause a big change in demand, but a $0.25 increase of $4.75 to $5 might cause a major decline in sales. Getting a better handle on that sort of price sensitivity should help our customers as they work to reposition, resize, and reformulate.

例如，價格從 4.50 美元上漲 0.25 美元到 4.75 美元可能不會引起需求的大幅變化，但價格從 4.75 美元上漲 0.25 美元到 5 美元可能會導致銷量大幅下降。更好地掌握這種價格敏感度應該有助於我們的客戶重新定位、調整規模和重新配方。

In beverage, we saw a welcome return to a more normal promotional activity this summer, which helped drive soft drink multi-pack demand. The longer-term trend towards less beer consumption continued, both in the Americas and in international markets. Keep in mind that while trends in multi-pack demand do track references like Nielsen over the medium term, leads and lags can vary, particularly when beverages are purchased and when they're concerned.

今年夏天，飲料業的促銷活動明顯恢復正常，這促進了軟性飲料多包裝的需求成長。無論是在美洲還是國際市場，啤酒消費量持續下降的長期趨勢仍在持續。請記住，雖然多包裝需求的趨勢在中期內確實與尼爾森等參考資料相符，但領先和滯後可能會有所不同，尤其是在購買飲料時。

A 12-pack, for example, will tend to be consumed more quickly if it goes directly into the refrigerator. So when you have a two-for-one promotion, it can be a bit harder to predict when consumers will be back to buy more. Some of the normal second-quarter beer production shutdowns that typically occur around the Fourth of July holiday were deferred this year and are now scheduled for the fourth quarter.

例如，一箱12瓶裝的啤酒如果直接放入冰箱，往往會更快被喝完。因此，在進行買一送一促銷活動時，很難預測消費者何時會再次購買更多商品。往年第二季啤酒生產停產通常發生在7月4日假期前後，但今年部分停產被推遲，現在安排在第四季進行。

The impact of that shift is difficult to predict, represents an effort by our customers to match their own production to demand. We serve beverage producers of all kinds and sizes, with multi-packs for cans, bottles, and plastic. Over time, we expect to outperform the overall beverage market, both in the Americas and in our international business, thanks to our innovation portfolio and the strength of our integrated beverage packaging model.

這種轉變的影響難以預測，它代表我們的客戶努力使自己的生產與需求相符。我們為各種規模的飲料生產商提供服務，包括罐裝、瓶裝和塑膠包裝的多包裝產品。隨著時間的推移，憑藉我們的創新產品組合和強大的一體化飲料包裝模式，我們預計在美洲和國際業務中都將超越整個飲料市場。

Food service results are broadly weaker, as has been well telegraphed by the media. While affordability has been the primary challenge to foot traffic and volumes, this is also the category with the most bleached paperboard packaging. And bleached packaging is where we have seen the most unusual additive behavior, which is affecting sales as well as profitability. Our smaller international food service business continues to perform very well, with new product innovation and strong execution driving continued volume improvement.

正如媒體先前報導的那樣，餐飲服務業的業績總體疲軟。雖然價格因素一直是客流量和銷售的主要挑戰，但這也是漂白紙板包裝使用最多的類別。我們發現，漂白包裝中添加劑的行為最為異常，這不僅影響了銷售額，也影響了獲利能力。我們規模較小的國際餐飲服務業務持續保持良好勢頭，新產品創新和強大的執行力推動了銷售的持續成長。

In household products in the Americas, we see consumers reducing purchases and shifting to private-label alternatives. Our international business continues to provide a significant offset, largely driven by our product innovation. Health and beauty is a relatively small and mostly international business for us that has significant potential to grow over time in the Americas.

在美洲的家居用品領域，我們看到消費者減少了購買量，轉而選擇自有品牌產品。我們的國際業務持續提供重要的抵銷作用，這主要得益於我們的產品創新。健康與美容對我們來說是一個相對較小且主要面向國際的業務，但隨著時間的推移，它在美洲具有巨大的成長潛力。

Slide 7 highlights our five packaging innovation platforms. Innovation is a critical component of our strategy. Because our innovation team is opening up entirely new markets for paperboard packaging, in the past couple of years, our innovations have taken us into meat protein, freshly prepared food, ready meals in Europe, brown coffee, and a host of markets which were traditionally dominated by plastic and foam. Innovation is why we are confident in our ability to grow faster than the QSR and CPG markets we serve.

第 7 張投影片重點介紹了我們的五大包裝創新平台。創新是我們策略的關鍵組成部分。由於我們的創新團隊正在為紙板包裝開闢全新的市場，在過去的幾年裡，我們的創新已經將我們帶入了肉類蛋白、新鮮製備的食品、歐洲的即食食品、棕色咖啡以及許多傳統上由塑膠和泡沫主導的市場。正是憑藉著創新，我們才有信心實現比我們所服務的速食和消費品市場更快的成長。

On slide 8, we highlight an innovation that demonstrates our market expansion. In the produce aisle, and especially with small fruits and vegetables, plastic punnets are the traditional plant packaging standard. But while plastic punnets are cost effective, their performance and consumer appeal is mixed at best, and recycling rates are low. As our customers look for better functionality and greater consumer appeal, we have developed a family of paperboard punnets, including open, top-seal, and clamshell designs that use up to 95% less plastic and are recyclable in most existing programs.

在第 8 張投影片中，我們重點介紹了一項創新，以展示我們的市場擴張。在生鮮區，尤其是小型水果和蔬菜區，塑膠小盒是傳統的植物包裝標準。雖然塑膠包裝盒價格實惠，但其性能和消費者吸引力充其量只能說是參差不齊，而且回收率也很低。隨著客戶對更佳功能和更佳消費者吸引力的追求，我們開發了一系列紙板包裝盒，包括開口式、頂部密封式和翻蓋式設計，這些包裝盒可減少高達 95% 的塑膠用量，並且在大多數現有回收計劃中均可回收。

On this slide, we highlight our ProducePack, top-sealed punnet. These examples are from two of our large store-brand customers, Marks & Spencer and Tesco in the UK. Fruits and vegetables are packed in many different ways depending on the grower, the scale, and the market.

在本投影片中，我們將重點放在我們的 ProducePack 頂部密封包裝盒。這些例子來自我們英國的兩家大型自有品牌客戶，分別是 Marks & Spencer 和 Tesco。水果和蔬菜的包裝方式多種多樣，取決於種植者、規模和市場。

So we design our punnets to work on the same automated lines as plastic punnets and minimize switching costs and to be superior to plastic alternatives where more handling is involved. Our clamshell design, for example, serves a hand-packed market. But unlike the plastic clamshell, ours can be locked into a closed position with one hand, improving labor efficiency.

因此，我們設計的包裝盒可以與塑膠包裝盒在同一條自動化生產線上使用，以最大限度地降低轉換成本，並且在需要更多人工操作的情況下優於塑膠替代品。例如，我們的翻蓋式包裝設計服務於手工包裝市場。但與塑膠翻蓋式包裝不同，我們的產品可以單手鎖定在閉合位置，從而提高勞動效率。

When we began this project, our team studied the science of food ripening and developed containers that have a meaningfully positive impact on how long some fruits and vegetables stay fresh. In cherry tomatoes, for example, a third party has verified an increase in shelf life of more than three days, a really big advantage for highly perishable products.

當我們開始這個計畫時，我們的團隊研究了食物成熟的科學原理，並開發出能夠顯著延長某些水果和蔬菜保鮮時間的容器。例如，第三方機構已證實，櫻桃番茄的保質期延長了三天以上，這對於極易腐爛的產品來說是一個非常大的優勢。

Other testing demonstrated that our paperboard punnets slowed the mold growth compared to plastic alternatives. Our punnets also offer outstanding printability inside and out, something you can't get with plastic. That gives the growers and retailers a way to increase their brand marketing impact to distinguish more easily between products and quality levels and to educate consumers about what they are buying.

其他測試表明，與塑膠製品相比，我們的紙板包裝盒能減緩黴菌的生長。我們的包裝盒內外都具有出色的印刷效果，這是塑膠製品無法比擬的。這為種植者和零售商提供了一種提高品牌行銷影響力的方法，以便更容易地區分產品和品質等級，並教育消費者了解他們所購買的產品。

Our paperboard punnets, along with other new innovations like our paper seal line are a perfect fit with today's trends towards healthier eating and the growing use of GLP-1, and they're great examples of just how effectively Graphic Packaging moves with the consumer.

我們的紙板包裝盒，以及我們的紙封系列等其他創新產品，完美契合了當今健康飲食的趨勢和 GLP-1 的日益普及，它們充分體現了 Graphic Packaging 如何有效地與消費者互動。

Turning to slide 9, our vision for Graphic Packaging is clear, and my confidence in our business model remains strong. Innovation, culture, and the commitment to making packaging that is better for the planet are fundamental to driving best-in-class results for our customers, and for all of our stakeholders. With Waco now ramping up, we have everything we need to reach our Vision 2030 goals. And that means we can turn our full attention to execution and driving cash flow.

翻到第 9 張投影片，我們對圖形包裝的願景很明確，我對我們的商業模式依然充滿信心。創新、文化以及致力於生產對地球更友善的包裝，是為我們的客戶和所有利益相關者帶來一流成果的根本所在。隨著韋科市的建設步入正軌，我們擁有了實現「2030願景」目標所需的一切。這意味著我們可以將全部精力投入到執行和推動現金流上。

On slide 10, we summarize our financial results. I've already described the big drivers of sales and margin performance. Slide 11 highlights the still challenging consumer packaging environment on the left and the strength of our business model and execution on the right. Delivering margin improvement and facing sequential price and volume pressure is a testament to the strength of our model and the value we bring to our customers. While we are not satisfied with the earned results, we are confident that we can meaningfully improve margins as demand and competitive behavior normalize.

第 10 頁，我們總結了財務表現。我已經描述了影響銷售額和利潤率的主要因素。第 11 張投影片左側重點展示了仍然充滿挑戰的消費品包裝環境，右側則展示了我們強大的商業模式和執行力。在面臨持續的價格和銷售壓力的情況下，我們仍能實現利潤率的提升，這證明了我們模式的強大以及我們為客戶帶來的價值。雖然我們對目前取得的成績並不滿意，但我們相信，隨著需求和競爭行為的正常化，我們可以顯著提高利潤率。

Turning to slide 12, we used $150 million to repurchase approximately $6.8 million of the company's outstanding shares year-to-date, reducing shares outstanding by 2.3% in 2025 after a similar reduction in 2024. We have repurchased approximately 24% of the company since 2018.

翻到第 12 張投影片，我們用 1.5 億美元回購了該公司今年迄今約 680 萬美元的流通股，繼 2024 年類似減持之後，2025 年流通股減少了 2.3%。自 2018 年以來，我們已回購了該公司約 24% 的股份。

Turning to the outlook on slide 13, we have modestly revised our guidance to reflect performance today and our best view of what's been an increasingly difficult to predict volume outlook. In this environment, we are focused on the things we can control, and that includes cost and inventory. We are assessing opportunities to further reduce SG&A and finding other opportunities to reduce costs, which I believe will further cement our significant efficiency and margin advantage over competitors.

在第 13 頁的展望部分，我們略微修改​​了我們的預期，以反映當前的業績以及我們對越來越難以預測的銷售前景的最佳看法。在這種環境下，我們專注於我們可以控制的事情，包括成本和庫存。我們正在評估進一步降低銷售、一般及行政費用的機會，並尋找其他降低成本的機會，我相信這將進一步鞏固我們相對於競爭對手的顯著效率和利潤優勢。

You saw us take action to reduce inventory in the second and third quarters, and we will continue to drive inventory out of our system as we re-optimize around Waco and Kalamazoo. In the fourth quarter, we will take further action to balance production with customer demand, which we expect to have approximately a $15 million impact on EBITDA. These decisions are intended to protect our margin profile and to protect our volume.

你們已經看到我們在第二季和第三季採取措施減少庫存，我們將繼續透過重新優化韋科和卡拉馬祖地區的業務來減少庫存。第四季度，我們將採取進一步措施來平衡生產與客戶需求，預計這將對 EBITDA 產生約 1,500 萬美元的影響。這些決定旨在保護我們的利潤率和銷售。

At a time when competitors are running for cash and signing contracts that we believe carry margins well below the cost of capital, we are focused on protecting our industry-leading margins and protecting share where we are the best and most logical supplier in the medium and long term. We are using this period of unusual competitive behavior to align our order books with customers who understand the durable competitive advantages that we have in innovation, cost, efficiency, and quality.

在競爭對手爭相籌集資金並簽署我們認為利潤率遠低於資本成本的合約之際，我們專注於保護我們行業領先的利潤率，並在中長期內保持我們作為最佳和最合理供應商的市場份額。我們正利用這段競爭異常激烈的時期，調整我們的訂單，使其與那些了解我們在創新、成本、效率和品質方面所擁有的持久競爭優勢的客戶保持一致。

Our year-end leverage target is up modestly. That is mainly a function of the change in our EBITDA expectations as well as our decision to take advantage of the dislocation in our share price with additional share repurchases in the third quarter. Graphic Packaging has doubled in sales and EBITDA since 2017, and maintaining prudent debt levels has always been a major factor in the company's success. With our Waco investment year-end completion, we expect a significant free cash flow inflection, and we'll prioritize deleveraging alongside our other uses of cash in 2026 and beyond.

我們年底的槓桿目標略有調高。這主要是由於我們對 EBITDA 預期的變化，以及我們決定利用股價波動在第三季進行額外股票回購。自 2017 年以來，Graphic Packaging 的銷售額和 EBITDA 翻了一番，而保持審慎的債務水平一直是該公司成功的主要因素。隨著我們在韋科的投資在年底完成，我們預計自由現金流將出現顯著增長，我們將在 2026 年及以後優先考慮去槓桿化以及現金的其他用途。

In keeping with our commitment to prudent use of leverage and maintaining financial flexibility, we made an important financing transaction in October. As detailed in a recent 8-K, we ventured into a $400 million delayed draw term loan, which will be used to repay the bonds maturing in April of 2026. This loan has a floating rate 35 basis points lower than our revolver and matures in June of 2027.

為了履行我們對謹慎使用槓桿和保持財務靈活性的承諾，我們在 10 月進行了一筆重要的融資交易。正如最近一份 8-K 文件中所詳述的那樣，我們獲得了一筆 4 億美元的延期提取定期貸款，該貸款將用於償還 2026 年 4 月到期的債券。該貸款的浮動利率比我們的循環貸款低 35 個基點，將於 2027 年 6 月到期。

This new financing addresses the upcoming bond maturity while giving us more time to decide whether longer-term financing is needed. Given the substantial cash flow we expect to generate in 2026 and beyond, the flexibility of prepayable debt is particularly attractive now. Our current cost of debt is approximately 4.5%.

這項新的融資措施可以解決即將到期的債券問題，同時給我們更多時間來決定是否需要長期融資。鑑於我們預計在 2026 年及以後將產生大量現金流，可提前償還債務的靈活性現在特別有吸引力。我們目前的債務成本約為 4.5%。

As a reminder, with the Waco investment is effectively complete, our capital spending will decline significantly to approximately 5% of sales. Capital spending is the largest driver of our expected cash flow inflection. With the team we now have in place and the levers we have to pull, I'm confident in our ability to generate our targeted $700 million to $800 million of free cash flow in 2026.

再次提醒大家，隨著韋科投資項目基本完成，我們的資本支出將大幅下降至銷售額的約 5%。資本支出是我們預期現金流拐點的最大驅動因素。憑藉我們現有的團隊和我們所掌握的資源，我有信心我們能夠在 2026 年實現 7 億至 8 億美元的自由現金流目標。

Let me be very clear about this. We can't control demand. And lately, we can't predict it any better than our customers or our competitors can. But Graphic Packaging is at a very different place today. With Waco complete, we have the industry's best assets and best cost position. And we have far greater control over our ability to generate free cash flow than we did a year ago.

讓我把話說清楚。我們無法控制需求。而最近，我們預測未來的能力並不比我們的客戶或競爭對手強多少。但如今的圖形包裝產業已經截然不同了。隨著韋科專案的完成，我們擁有了業內最好的資產和最佳的成本優勢。而且，與一年前相比，我們現在對產生自由現金流的能力有更大的控制權。

While competitors are restructuring, spending, and lately making short-term deals that don't generate cost-to-capital returns, Graphic Packaging needs to focus on delivering results for our customers and our stockholders. We have everything we need. And the next five years are about innovation, execution, and free cash flow. Graphic Packaging is in a better place to create lasting value for our stockholders than ever before. In the appendix that begins with slide 15, you'll find some additional information you may find helpful.

當競爭對手進行重組、支出，並且最近達成了一些無法產生資本成本回報的短期交易時，Graphic Packaging 需要專注於為我們的客戶和股東帶來成果。我們所需的一切都已具備。接下來的五年將著重於創新、執行和自由現金流。Graphic Packaging 比以往任何時候都更有能力為股東創造持久價值。從第 15 張投影片開始的附錄中，您會找到一些您可能會覺得有用的附加資訊。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, let's begin with Q&A.

我們的發言稿到此結束。操作員，我們先從問答環節開始。

(Operator Instructions) Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

（操作員說明）Ghansham Panjabi，Baird。

Thank you, operator. I guess first off, just wanted to congratulate Steve and wish him the best for the future. Obviously, a great run of the company and look forward to your next role. So congratulations again. So my first question, Mike, just kind of looking back at 3Q, did the end markets track pretty much what you thought but the difference was just the share shift because of the bleach board conversion? And related to that, why would that dynamic change near-term barring some sort of inflection higher in volumes?

謝謝接線生。首先，我想祝賀史蒂夫，並祝他未來一切順利。顯然，您在公司發展得非常出色，期待您在下一個職位上的表現。再次恭喜。麥克，我的第一個問題是，回顧第三季度，終端市場是否基本上符合你的預期，只是因為漂白板轉換導致的市佔率變化有所不同？與此相關的是，除非成交量出現某種拐點式的上升，否則這種動態在短期內為何會改變？

Hey, Ghansham. It's Steve. Thank you for those very kind words. And I'll let Mike jump into the response here in a moment. But it has been just a phenomenal opportunity over the last 10 years. I want to thank Mike personally. Just a phenomenal partnership, a true opportunity to work hand-in-hand with them, which has been just a wonderful and honorable experience.

嘿，甘沙姆。是史蒂夫。非常感謝您的這些鼓勵話語。稍後我會讓麥克回應這個問題。但過去十年對我來說是一個絕佳的機會。我想親自感謝麥克。這是一次非凡的合作，一個真正有機會與他們攜手共進的機會，這真是一次美妙而榮幸的經歷。

Probably looking ahead, though, as excited for the business as it could be if you look out now with the investments that have been made, Waco coming to life, above cost-of-capital returns out into the future, the business is incredibly well positioned for success going forward. And the cash flow inflection that's happening as we sit here on this call with you today is outstanding. So my thanks to Mike personally for all that we did together and looking forward to what lies ahead as well. So thanks for that, Mike.

不過，展望未來，儘管現在對業務發展感到興奮，但考慮到已經進行的投資、韋科的蓬勃發展以及未來高於資本成本的回報，該業務已經為未來的成功奠定了非常有利的地位。而就在我們今天與您進行電話會議之際，現金流出現了顯著的轉折點。所以，我衷心感謝麥克和我一起完成的一切，也期待未來的發展。謝謝你，麥克。

Thank you, Steve. It's been a real honor. To your question, Ghansham, in terms of expectations in the quarter versus the results we realized, first I want to clarify, there was no share loss for us there. That was really a function of customer purchasing patterns. And when you look at their volumetric performance through second quarter and into third quarter, in the third quarter, material that's been released so far by a handful of our larger customers, it shows we're actually outperforming their overall volumetric performance. And that's really a function of our innovation. Our innovation in the quarter was another $52 million, roughly 2%, so that's helping us outperform some of the challenges that they're seeing in terms of their volumetric performance.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。這真是我的榮幸。Ghansham，關於你提出的季度預期與我們實際結果之間的問題，首先我想澄清一下，我們並沒有出現市場份額下降的情況。這其實取決於顧客的購買模式。當你觀察他們第二季到第三季的銷售表現時，你會發現，在第三季度，我們少數幾個大客戶已經發布的產品表明，我們的整體銷售表現實際上超過了他們。這其實是我們創新能力的體現。本季我們的創新又帶來了 5,200 萬美元的收入，約佔 2%，這有助於我們克服他們在銷售方面遇到的一些挑戰。

Okay, and then in terms of with all the dynamics that are occurring, do you still feel confident with the Waco EBITDA contribution specific to next year, or does that depend on some of the dynamics in the marketplace that are taking place at this point?

好的，那麼就目前各種動態變化而言，您是否仍然對韋科公司明年的 EBITDA 貢獻有信心？還是說這取決於目前市場上的一些動態變化？

No, thank you for that. Look, I'm very confident in Waco's ramp up in delivering the $80 million that we talked about. And obviously, there's another $80 million behind that. By way of reminder, for the first $100 million, of those savings was really a function of the mill closures. Middletown, which was closed the end of May, as you know, and now we formally announced our East Angus facility in Quebec, will close by year-end. So that's all in line.

不，謝謝你。我對韋科能夠實現我們之前討論過的 8000 萬美元的目標非常有信心。顯然，這背後還有另外 8,000 萬美元。需要提醒的是，最初的 1 億美元節省實際上是工廠關閉的結果。如您所知，米德爾頓工廠已於 5 月底關閉，而現在我們正式宣布，位於魁北克的東安格斯工廠也將在年底前關閉。所以一切都符合規定。

Relative to the total impact of that in 2026, we have to see kind of what the volumes look like as we go into 2026. I mean, the volumes are largely flat year on year, that's a different outcome than when they're down 2%. So if they're down a little bit next year, then we will need to look at our Kalamazoo K1 machine, and we'll run that in a way that allows us to optimize operating our K2 machine in Kalamazoo, which is our most efficient; and Waco, which would be our most efficient paperboard manufacturing facility. And if we do need to toggle a little bit, we can take some downtime on our K1 machine, and we're able to do that at a very reasonable cost.

相對於 2026 年的整體影響，我們需要看看 2026 年的銷售情況如何。我的意思是，銷量與去年同期基本持平，這與銷量下降 2% 的情況截然不同。所以如果明年產量略有下降，我們需要審視我們在卡拉馬祖的 K1 機器，並調整其運作方式，以便優化我們在卡拉馬祖的 K2 機器（這是我們效率最高的機器）和韋科的機器（這將是我們效率最高的紙板製造廠）的運作。如果確實需要進行一些調整，我們可以讓 K1 機器停機一段時間，而且這樣做的成本非常合理。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝你，麥克。

Thank you.

謝謝。

George Staphos, BofA.

喬治‧斯塔福斯，美國銀行。

Thanks so much. Appreciate all the details. Also, want to make a quick shoutout to Steve, a really important driver, as you mentioned, Mike, of what Graphics has become the last 10 years, and really want to thank him for all the support he's given us all on this phone, both in terms of our industry research and our research on graphics. So Steve, thanks so much.

非常感謝。感謝您提供的所有細節。另外，我想特別感謝史蒂夫，正如你提到的，麥克，他是過去 10 年圖形技術發展的重要推動者，我真心感謝他一直以來對我們所有人的支持，無論是在行業研究方面還是在圖形研究方面。史蒂夫，非常感謝你。

In terms of my questions, you mentioned, Mike, the opportunity perhaps to further improve productivity and the like, and that's my phrasing, not necessarily yours. What opportunity do you think you have? How important is that in terms of Waco and the commercial opportunities, and to some degree, the commercial challenges now that you're facing in the market to getting to that $80 million-plus? How much of that additional cost reduction, SG&A, and so on is required, or would it be additive? And then I have a follow on.

關於我的問題，麥克，你提到了或許有機會進一步提高生產力等等，這是我的表述，不一定是你的。你認為自己擁有怎樣的機會？就韋科市的商業機會而言，以及在某種程度上，就您目前在市場上面臨的商業挑戰而言，要達到 8,000 萬美元以上的目標，這有多重要？需要額外降低多少成本、銷售、管理及行政費用等？還是說這些降低都是累積的？然後我還有後續。

I think the big part of that, my confidence in the $80 million on the Waco ramp-up for '26 is very high, George. I mean, the facility is, as I said in my prepared comments, has come up a little faster than we even expected. We're very happy with what we see so far. So that's there. I think the bigger question is around our visibility and what the end-use markets are doing as we head into 2026. And as I said in my prepared comments, what we're really going to focus in on are the things that we can control.

喬治，我認為其中最重要的一點是，我對韋科工廠2026年8,000萬美元的擴建計畫非常有信心。我的意思是，正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，這個設施的建成速度甚至比我們預期的還要快一些。我們對目前所看到的非常滿意。就是這樣。我認為更大的問題在於我們的市場可見度以及隨著我們邁入 2026 年，終端用戶市場將如何發展。正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，我們真正要專注的是我們能夠控制的事情。

So we've got some unusual competitive activity going on right now, as I mentioned, around bleached paperboard. We don't necessarily control that. We don't necessarily control what the overall volumetric performance of our customers are. They're working very heavily on that. You hear and read about the things they're trying to do to get their businesses going in the right direction. So we're obviously cheering for them.

正如我剛才提到的，目前圍繞著漂白紙板出現了一些不尋常的競爭活動。我們未必能控制這一點。我們未必能控制客戶的整體銷售表現。他們正在大力推進這項工作。你會聽到或讀到他們為了讓企業走上正軌而嘗試採取的各種措施。所以我們當然會為他們加油。

But in the meantime, we've got a number of levers that we can pull to really make sure that we operate the businesses efficiently and effectively as possible. And those are kind of in order. Our first thing is CapEx is going to revert back to a more normalized level, to 5% or below. That's going to generate in excess of $350 million of free cash flow just by that. And ultimately, even though, as you well know, we've got a very low-cost structure here, we're looking at every cost, SG&A and plant costs, that really allow us to make sure that we don't impact customer service levels.

但同時，我們有許多方法可以確保我們盡可能有效率地經營這些業務。這些基本符合順序。首先，資本支出將恢復到更正常的水平，即 5% 或更低。僅此一項就能產生超過3.5億美元的自由現金流。最後，儘管您也清楚，我們這裡的成本結構非常低，但我們正在仔細審查每項成本，包括銷售、一般及行政費用和工廠成本，以確保我們不會影響客戶服務水準。

But given some of the realities we've got going on in the market, we've got to challenge all those things, and we're doing that stuff internally here, so we'll continue to do that. And ultimately, taking a look at our inventory situation, you've seen we released, had a capital release so far this year of about $30 million. We expect upwards of another $20 million here in Q4.

但鑑於目前市場上的一些現實情況，我們必須挑戰所有這些事情，我們正在內部進行這些工作，所以我們將繼續這樣做。最後，從我們的庫存情況來看，正如您所看到的，我們今年迄今已經釋放了約 3000 萬美元的資金。我們預計第四季還將有超過 2000 萬美元的收入。

And as we go into next year, that'll be another area we're really looking at hard, because with Waco and Kalamazoo online, if you think about it, we now have five very well-capitalized paperboard manufacturing facilities. And that gives us a unique perspective to be able to look at our overall system, look at our supply chains, take a step back, really make sure that we're challenging kind of where we're at and what we can do.

展望明年，這將是我們重點關注的另一個領域，因為隨著韋科和卡拉馬祖工廠上線，仔細想想，我們現在擁有五家資金雄厚的紙板製造廠。這讓我們能夠以獨特的視角審視我們的整個系統，審視我們的供應鏈，退後一步，真正確保我們正在挑戰我們所處的位置以及我們可以做的事情。

So those are the levers that we really have in our control. That's how I'm thinking about it. As I mentioned to Ghansham, if we need to manage our supply and demand on our coated recycled paperboard as Waco really ramps up quick, we can toggle our K1 machine. We're able to do that. We're able to do it cost effectively.

所以，這些才是我們真正能夠掌控的因素。我也是這麼想的。正如我向 Ghansham 提到的那樣，如果我們需要管理塗層再生紙板的供應和需求（因為 Waco 的生產確實迅速增長），我們可以切換我們的 K1 機器。我們能夠做到這一點。我們能夠以經濟高效的方式做到這一點。

Thanks, Mike. My other question, just more of an end-market question, so food service, I think from the chart, was one of the end markets that wasn't doing as well for you in the quarter. Food service has been kind of an interesting market from our observations, right? You've had fast casual not doing so well, but quick service has been picking up some steam.

謝謝你，麥克。我的另一個問題，更偏向終端市場方面，我認為從圖表來看，餐飲服務是本季表現不太好的終端市場之一。根據我們的觀察，餐飲服務市場一直是個相當有趣的市場，對吧？雖然休閒速食經營不太成功，但速食服務卻逐漸走紅。

What kind of trends were you seeing into the fourth quarter? And to the extent that customers can know and you can share, you might be limited in either ability, what do you think -- ability to talk about it. What do you think is the outlook for food service there? And if that picks up, it's actually a relatively higher margin and market for you. Thanks so much. Good luck in the quarter. And again, Steve, thanks so much.

您在第四季觀察到了哪些趨勢？而且，在客戶能夠了解的範圍內，以及你能夠分享的範圍內，你在談論這件事的能力上可能會受到限制。你認為那裡的餐飲服務業前景如何？如果這種情況好轉，實際上對你來說利潤率和市佔率都會相對較高。非常感謝。祝你本季一切順利。再次感謝你，史蒂夫。

Thanks, George. Thanks for that question. I think you said it well. I mean, the fast casual is definitely under pressure. I mean, last week at Chipotle release, I won't go through all the comments, but the CEO really talked about the 25- to 35-year-old consumer, unemployment levels being higher, disposable income being lower. And in his words, that was driving him back into the grocery store. And again, I think that's a worthwhile comment to make.

謝謝你，喬治。謝謝你的提問。我覺得你說得很好。我的意思是，快餐休閒產業肯定面臨壓力。我的意思是，上週在 Chipotle 的發布會上，我就不一一贅述所有評論了，但執行長確實談到了 25 至 35 歲的消費者，失業率較高，可支配收入較低。用他的話來說，正是這件事驅使他再次走進雜貨店。我覺得這個評論很有價值。

And I bring it up because, as you know, we've built our portfolio to move with the consumer. So if that shift happens, given we're in every aisle of the grocery store, we actually are okay. We do see that trend around more of the QSR impact, which makes sense given the price points of QSR versus fast casual. And we're there. And we also think that we've got a number of innovation ideas that we're working with those customers that ultimately will allow us to continue to earn a place at the table and grow our volume. So that's how we're thinking about that dynamic.

我之所以提起這件事，是因為，如你所知，我們建立產品組合是為了與消費者同步發展。所以，如果這種轉變發生，考慮到我們遍布雜貨店的每個貨架，我們實際上也沒問題。我們確實看到這種趨勢更多地體現在快餐店的影響上，考慮到快餐店與休閒快餐店的價格點，這是有道理的。我們到了。我們也認為，我們正在與這些客戶合作，提出一些創新理念，最終將使我們能夠繼續在市場中佔有一席之地，並擴大我們的業務量。這就是我們對這種動態的看法。

Do you think it grows, Mike, next year? I guess just to draw a bow on it or tie a bow on it?

麥克，你覺得它明年還會長大嗎？我猜只是為了在上面畫個蝴蝶結或是打蝴蝶結吧？

I'd like to believe so. But again, George, it's just difficult for me to talk about demand. I mean, every time I think about a quarter, our customers have a hard time doing it. If it does for us, it will be most likely because of innovation.

我希望如此。但是，喬治，我還是很難談需求問題。我的意思是，每當我想到季度的時候，我們的客戶就很難做到這一點。如果這對我們有效，那很可能是因為創新。

Okay. Thanks so much.

好的。非常感謝。

Matt Robertt, Raymond James.

Matt Robertt，Raymond James。

Mike, Steve, Mark, good morning. Steve, I'll echo everybody else's thanks. Appreciate your comments all the time over the years. And if you want to get a RISI comment on this last question, I'll cede the floor to you. But maybe on the competitive price pressure on SBS and CUK on CRB, I apologize if I missed it. How much of a drag was that in 4Q? How long are you expecting it to last?

麥克、史蒂夫、馬克，早安。史蒂夫，我也要和大家一樣表示感謝。多年來，我一直很感謝您的評論。如果你想就最後一個問題發表 RISI 的評論，我將把發言權交給你。但或許我錯過了 SBS 和 CUK 在 CRB 上的競爭價格壓力，對此我深感抱歉。第四季這造成了多大的拖累？你預計它能持續多久？

And while I believe your SBS is mostly cup stock, are you able to sell incremental SBS or CUK similar to your competitors at the expense of CRB given that price spread? Or how is your own sales mix by paper types changed in this environment? Or do you expect any shift in 2026? Any incremental color on how the tonnes from Waco layer in over 2026 and that impacts your mix would be helpful. Thank you again.

雖然我認為你們的 SBS 主要以杯裝庫存為主，但考慮到價格差，你們能否像競爭對手那樣，以犧牲 CRB 為代價，銷售增量 SBS 或 CUK 呢？或者，在這種環境下，貴公司按紙張類型劃分的銷售組合發生了哪些變化？或者您預計2026年會有任何變化嗎？任何關於韋科煤層噸位在 2026 年如何影響你的混合比例的增量顏色資訊都將有所幫助。再次感謝。

Yes, thanks, Matt. So I'm going to address the SBS, CRB, CUK comments. We've had a fair amount of inbound in that, as you can imagine, over the last week or so. So the first thing you need to know, you see in our volumes, we have not lost any share. And we're going to be very focused on making sure we don't lose any share. Because if you think about it, you've got a product making SBS and we make it. We've got a mill that does it, Texarkana, so we know the cost structure on that. It's much more expensive to make than totally recycled paperboard.

是的，謝謝你，馬特。所以我要回應SBS、CRB和CUK的評論。正如你所想，過去一周左右，我們收到了相當多的這方面的諮詢。所以首先你需要知道的是，從我們的銷售來看，我們沒有失去任何市場份額。我們將全力以赴，確保不失去任何市場份額。因為仔細想想，你們的產品會產生 SBS，而我們正是製造它的人。我們在德克薩斯州特克薩卡納有一家工廠生產這種產品，所以我們知道它的成本結構。它的製造成本比完全回收的紙板高得多。

So from our standpoint, we would never substitute SBS for CRB, given the cost advantage we have. In fact, it's lower cost to make CRB on a recycled paperboard than it is to make bleached paperboard. So the margin profile is just simple arithmetic there in terms of what that looks like. And again, we're operating that mill, and we operate Kalamazoo and Waco. And what I'll tell you is that the CapEx requirements of a virgin paperboard manufacturing facility are 4 times what they are a coated recycled paperboard facility.

因此，從我們的角度來看，鑑於我們擁有成本優勢，我們絕不會用 SBS 取代 CRB。事實上，用再生紙板生產CRB的成本比用漂白紙板生產CRB的成本更低。所以，利潤率的構成其實就是簡單的算術運算。再次強調，我們正在運作那家工廠，我們也在運作卡拉馬祖和韋科工廠。我可以告訴你的是，原生紙板生產廠的資本支出需求是塗佈再生紙板廠的 4 倍。

That is, again, part of the decision we made when we invested so heavy in Kalamazoo and in Waco because of that phenomenon. So over the medium to long term, we're highly confident that we can continue to not only protect our share but win share from bleached because the cost of capital returns start to get in the way there. And ultimately, that's something that needs to find its own level.

這再次印證了我們當初決定在卡拉馬祖和韋科投入大量資金的原因之一，就是因為這種現象。因此，從中長期來看，我們非常有信心不僅能夠繼續保住我們的市場份額，還能從那些被搶佔市場份額的公司手中奪取市場份額，因為資本回報成本開始成為阻礙。歸根究底，這件事需要找到它自己的發展方向。

There's I think RISI in their last article or so talked about 500,000 tonnes of excess bleached capacity in the North American market. We'd agree with that, if not a little bit more. So that's got to be dealt with. That's really not something that Graphic will deal with. As you know, our focus is on package sales. We make cartons. We make wraps. We make cups. We sell value-added packaging. 95% of everything we do is in that area.

我認為 RISI 在其上一篇文章中談到了北美市場 50 萬噸過剩的漂白產能。我們同意這一點，甚至可能更同意一些。所以這個問題必須解決。這真的不是Graphic會處理的事情。如您所知，我們的重點是產品銷售。我們生產紙箱。我們製作捲餅。我們生產杯子。我們銷售增值包裝。我們95%的業務都集中在這個領域。

So from our standpoint, I mentioned this in my prepared comments, most of this was on the package price and not on the actual paperboard level itself, which makes sense given the dynamic we saw and what you saw happen with pricing in the quarter. We're confident in our ability to, over time, not only protect our share but continue to grow it with the high-quality, low-cost material we have coming out of our coated recycled paper platform. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color into how we're thinking about it.

所以從我們的角度來看，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的，大部分問題都出在包裝價格上，而不是紙板本身的價格上，考慮到我們看到的動態以及你們在本季度看到的定價情況，這是有道理的。我們有信心，隨著時間的推移，我們不僅能夠保住我們的市場份額，而且能夠憑藉我們塗佈再生紙平台生產的高品質、低成本材料，繼續擴大我們的市場份額。希望這能讓您對我們的思考方式有所了解。

Certainly. Really appreciate it, Mike, as always. Thank you. And maybe I could squeeze one quick follow up in. On the cash flow for next year, any flexibility in terms of the CapEx number? You said, I think, 5% of sales or lower. Any growth projects that you could potentially defer and bring that 5% in? Any lower or any other cash costs associated with the ramp up? Thanks again for taking the question.

當然。非常感謝你，麥克，一如既往。謝謝。或許我還能擠出一點時間補充說明。明年現金流方面，資本支出金額是否有任何彈性？我想你說過，銷售額的 5% 或更低。是否有任何成長項目可以推遲實施，從而將這 5% 的收益投入到專案中？與產能提升相關的其他現金成本是否有降低？再次感謝您回答這個問題。

Yes, it's a -- we're looking at all that as you'd expect, and we'll dial that in next time we talk to you. We'll give you a little bit clear view into kind of what that looks like for 2026, obviously. But it's a good question and something we're looking at all the time. But what I'm very confident in is the $350 million collection that will occur year on year.

是的，正如您所料，我們正在調查所有這些問題，下次與您交談時我們會詳細說明。我們當然會向大家更清楚地展示一下 2026 年的情況。但這是個好問題，也是我們一直在關注的問題。但我非常有信心的是，每年都會實現 3.5 億美元的收入。

Charlie Muir-Sands, BNP.

查理·繆爾-桑茲，英國國家黨。

Good morning, guys. Thank you for taking my questions. Just firstly, on Waco, can you just give some clarification around the phasing? You've obviously guided the startup cost, the $65 million to $75 million. Have they been largely incurred now, or do they step up sequentially into the fourth quarter? And how should we be thinking about those in this year versus next year? I mean, effectively, is the step up a reverse of those plus the $80 million, or would that be double counting? That's the first question. Thanks.

各位早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。首先，關於韋科事件，您能否就分階段實施的問題做一些說明？顯然，你已經將啟動成本控制在了 6500 萬美元到 7500 萬美元之間。這些費用是現在大部分已經產生，還是會隨著時間推移在第四季逐步增加？那麼，我們該如何看待今年和明年的這些問題呢？我的意思是，實際上，這一步的增加是這些金額的倒數加上 8000 萬美元，還是會重複計算？這是第一個問題。謝謝。

Charlie, good afternoon to you. My apologies if I don't hit this properly. I'm having a difficult time hearing you. I think your question was from the phasing of the one-time cost associated with Waco, which is outlined in the materials to be $65 million to $75 million. Assuming that was your question, the phasing of that is like two-thirds this year, one-third 2026. If I didn't get it right, please come back.

查理，下午好。如果我表達得不夠清楚，請見諒。我聽不太清楚你說話。我認為你的問題是關於與韋科事件相關的一次性成本的分階段支付，相關資料中概述的成本為 6500 萬美元至 7500 萬美元。假設你的問題是這樣的，那麼分階段實施的計畫大概是今年完成三分之二，2026 年完成三分之一。如果我做錯了，請回來指正。

Great, yes, thanks very much. And hopefully you can hear me. Can you also give us an update on the progress in selling your PaceSetter Rainier premium CRB? Are you achieving specific price premium for that now? And then one final piece is, can you just talk about the deleverage that you're expecting in the fourth quarter to get to the 3.5 to 3.7 times net debt EBITDA at year end? Thank you.

太好了，非常感謝。希望你能聽到我說話。您能否也向我們報告一下您的 PaceSetter Rainier 高級 CRB 的銷售進度？你現在能獲得特定的溢價嗎？最後還有一個問題，您能否談談您預計在第四季度實現的去槓桿化目標，即到年底將淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率降至 3.5 至 3.7 倍？謝謝。

Yes, thanks for that. So I'm going to address the question around Rainier first, then I'll cover the leverage. Listen, on Rainier, it's a great product. And one of the great things we have is we've got the most modern cleaning systems in both Kalamazoo and in Waco that give us tremendous competitive advantage over anybody else in the North American market. We've got curtain coaters on all three of our paper machines that give us the ability to really have brightness that approaches bleached paperboard levels.

是的，謝謝。所以我先來談談雷尼爾山的問題，然後再談談槓桿作用。聽著，在雷尼爾山，這可是個很棒的產品。我們的優勢之一是，我們在卡拉馬祖和韋科都擁有最先進的清潔系統，這使我們在北美市場上擁有巨大的競爭優勢。我們的三台造紙機都配備了簾式塗佈機，這使我們能夠獲得接近漂白紙板水平的亮度。

Now Rainier is actually one of the tools we're using to make sure we don't lose any share as we're competing against the SBS guys. Now ultimately, that does have some margin impact. The pricing we would expect to get is a little lower, as you would appreciate, because they're lowering their package prices to compete with CRB.

現在，雷尼爾實際上是我們用來確保在與 SBS 等公司競爭時不會失去任何市場份額的工具之一。最終，這確實會對利潤率產生一定影響。正如您所料，我們預期價格會略低一些，因為他們正在降低套餐價格以與 CRB 競爭。

So that's something we have to work our way through, but we have the levers to pull, and we have the capabilities to do it. So I really am happy that we've got that great in our portfolio of mix. And relative year-end leverage, yes, we've got a range of 3.5 to 3.7 for year-end numbers in terms of overall debt. That's really a function of a little bit of reduced EBITDA number, as you can imagine.

所以這是我們必須努力解決的問題，但我們有辦法，也有能力做到這一點。所以我很高興我們的產品組合中擁有這麼優秀的產品。至於年末相對槓桿率，是的，就整體債務而言，我們預計年末數據將在 3.5 到 3.7 之間。正如你所想，這實際上是由於 EBITDA 略有下降造成的。

And the fact that we want it to be opportunistic to buy back some shares this year, given the dislocation, we talked to our Board about that. And given the ultimate inflection of free cash flow that will happen here in 2026, that made sense to do. And as I said in my prepared comments, as we go into 2026 with that free cash flow, we'll be looking to de-lever as well as return cash to shareholders in a way that makes sense and drives long-term shareholder value.

鑑於目前的市場動盪，我們希望今年能抓住機會回購一些股票，我們就此與董事會進行了討論。考慮到自由現金流的最終拐點將在 2026 年出現，這樣做是有意義的。正如我在準備好的評論中所說，隨著我們進入 2026 年，憑藉這些自由現金流，我們將尋求降低槓桿率，並以合理的方式向股東返還現金，從而推動股東的長期價值增長。

Charlie, this is Mark. You'll recall that Q4 is typically a positive free cash quarter for us, and so that will help us get that leverage down to the range we're looking for.

查理，這是馬克。您應該記得，第四季度通常是我們自由現金流為正的季度，因此這將有助於我們將槓桿率降至我們想要的範圍。

Right. Thanks.

正確的。謝謝。

Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo.

Gabe Hajde，富國銀行。

Mike, good morning. Steve, pleasure working with you. Mark, good morning as well. I had a question about working capital and cash flow as well in the next year. Steve, can you help us with some of the AR factoring that's been done or reverse factoring? Just give us a sense for what that looks like and maybe how that will be managed into 2026.

麥克，早安。史蒂夫，很高興與你合作。馬克，早安。我還想問一下關於明年的營運資金和現金流的問題。史蒂夫，你能幫我們處理一些已完成的AR因子分解或反向因子分解問題嗎？請您大致介紹一下那會是什麼樣子，以及 2026 年將如何進行管理。

Why don't you handle that question, if you would? We'll let Mark handle it.

如果你願意的話，為什麼不回答這個問題呢？交給馬克處理吧。

This is Steve. The question is around AR finance, council receivable financing. Gabe, there won't be any material changes year over year relative to that in terms of the expectations of where we would be at the end of '25 versus '26. That's not really an enabler for cash flow in 2026.

這是史蒂夫。問題與應收帳款融資、市政應收帳款融資有關。Gabe，就我們對 2025 年底和 2026 年底的預期而言，不會有任何實質的改變。這並不能真正促進2026年的現金流。

As Mike mentioned in his comments, the '26 cash flow enablement is really about reduced CapEx, reduced inventory levels, also some managing of SG&A costs. Those are going to be the levers that will be pulled to drive cash flow, that confidence in the $700 million to $800 million. So it won't be around -- it won't be about accounts receivable programs being materially different.

正如麥克在他的評論中提到的，2026 年現金流的實現實際上在於減少資本支出、降低庫存水平，以及對銷售、一般及行政費用進行一些管理。這些將是推動現金流、增強對7億至8億美元資金信心的關鍵因素。所以它不會存在——它不會涉及應收帳款程序的實質差異。

And just to clarify, Gabe, CapEx this year running $850 million, $450 million next year, so that delta is $400 million cash flow reflection.

澄清一下，Gabe，今年的資本支出為 8.5 億美元，明年為 4.5 億美元，因此差額為 4 億美元現金流。

Okay, and then, unfortunately, I feel like there's still some confusion around these startup costs, the $65 million to $75 million. Can you give us a little bit more specificity around if that's capitalized interest costs, if those are kind of -- I'll call them wasted tonnes, but rolling test tonnes off and recycling them through. And if I heard you right, Mike, there's $65 million to $75 million this year, and that reduces down to $35 million next year, so for a net positive of $30 million. And again, is that the same as the $80 million that we're talking about in terms of contribution from the investment? Thank you.

好的，但遺憾的是，我覺得大家對這些啟動成本（6500萬美元到7500萬美元）仍然存在一些困惑。您能否更具體地說明一下，這是否是資本化的利息成本，如果這些成本算是——我稱之為浪費的噸位，但滾動測試噸位並回收利用它們。如果我沒聽錯的話，麥克，今年有 6500 萬到 7500 萬美元，明年減少到 3500 萬美元，所以淨收益為 3000 萬美元。那麼，這和我們所說的投資貢獻的 8000 萬美元是同一數額嗎？謝謝。

Okay, so there's a number of things to unpack there. The $80 million EBITDA run rate, so that's out on the EBITDA line into next year. The $65 million to $75 million, we've talked about this a number of quarters now, are the one-time costs, cash costs associated with the startup of the machine. Charlie's question was what's the phasing of that? That $65 million to $75 million, two-thirds of that's in this year, one-thirds of it is in next year. And I'm going to ask Chuck this year to give a little bit of detail on the breakdown of that, just high-level buckets so that you kind of understand what we're talking about there, Gabe.

好的，這裡有很多事情需要分析。8000萬美元的EBITDA運行率，所以明年的EBITDA指標將不再是這個數字。我們已經連續幾季討論過這 6,500 萬到 7,500 萬美元，這是與機器啟動相關的一次性成本和現金成本。查理的問題是：那一步的相位是什麼？那 6,500 萬到 7,500 萬美元，三分之二將在今年到位，三分之一將在未來一年到位。今年我會請查克詳細解釋其中的一些細節，例如高層次的得分點，這樣你就能明白我們在說什麼了，加布。

Yes, that's mostly just operating costs associated with running the facility prior to startup. So as we train the team and bring the team on board that have the facility ready to be up and running, anything that does not get capitalized is what we've been capturing in that $65 million to $75 million. And yes, that is a multi-year number, not just a single-year number, those $65 million to $75 million. The other point on the capitalized interest, that of course is something that we do during the period of construction. That will of course stop once the asset capitalized interest, again, in 2026.

是的，那主要是啟動前運營該設施的相關營運成本。因此，在我們培訓團隊並讓團隊加入，使設施準備就緒並投入營運的過程中，任何未被資本化的資金都是我們一直以來所獲得的 6,500 萬至 7,500 萬美元。是的，這是一個多年期的數字，而不是一年期的數字，即 6500 萬至 7500 萬美元。關於資本化利息的另一點，當然，這是我們在施工期間所做的事情。當然，一旦資產資本化利息在 2026 年再次實現，這種情況就會停止。

Okay. Or in Q4?

好的。或第四季？

Well, a little bit, potentially, a little bit in Q4 as the asset came in service during Q4. And there's a little bit of contingent spend, and then just regular capitalized interest. But for the primary Waco asset, then that would cease.

嗯，可能有一點，大概在第四季度，因為該資產在第四季度投入使用。另外還有一些緊急支出，以及常規的資本化利息。但對於韋科的主要資產而言，這種情況就會停止。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC.

Arun Viswanathan，RBC。

Great. Thanks for my question. Steve, great working with you. Thanks for all the help and insight over the years. And I look forward to the next chapter as well. So I guess my question is around maybe initial thoughts on '26 and specifically around Waco. Maybe you can just kind of give us some of the assumptions underlying the $80 million EBITDA uplift, and if those are still intact. I believe most of those are around cost per tonne. But is there any volume component? And then related matter, I guess, do you still feel the same way about '27 as well, another $80 million uplift, or is that also somewhat volume dependent? Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝你的提問。史蒂夫，和你一起工作很愉快。感謝您多年來的幫助和真知灼見。我也很期待下一章。所以我想問的是，大家對2026年以及韋科慘案有什麼初步看法。或許您可以為我們介紹 8000 萬美元 EBITDA 成長背後的假設，以及這些假設是否仍然成立。我相信其中大部分都是以噸計算的成本。但其中是否有銷量因素？那麼，我想問一下，您對 2027 年的業績是否也抱有同樣的看法，認為會再增長 8000 萬美元，還是說這也在一定程度上取決於銷量？謝謝。

So Arun, I'm going to kind of take a step back and make sure I kind of walk through this again so that I want to make sure that my points are clear here. We're very confident in our ability to deliver $80 million in Waco as it ramps up next year. And then in 2027, there'd be another $80 million. By way of reminder, that's $160 million in total. $100 million of that, as I mentioned, is focused on kind of the fixed costs of not running Middletown and East Angus.

所以，Arun，我要退後一步，再仔細梳理一遍，確保我的觀點表達清楚。我們非常有信心在明年韋科計畫加速推進的過程中，實現 8,000 萬美元的投資目標。到 2027 年，還將有 8,000 萬美元。再提醒一下，總共是 1.6 億美元。正如我之前提到的，其中 1 億美元主要用於支付停止營運米德爾頓和東安格斯兩所學校的固定成本。

So that'll come in there next year. We'll be ramping up. We won't be at full run rate, as I said in my prepared remarks, from a volumetric standpoint for 12 to 18 months. But our confidence level in the $80 million for next year is very high. We had always said that as we kind of brought it online in the outlying years, we'd need some volumetric growth. That hasn't changed.

所以明年就會加入這個內容。我們將逐步加大力度。正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，從產量角度來看，我們在未來 12 到 18 個月內都無法達到滿載運轉。但我們對明年實現 8000 萬美元的目標非常有信心。我們一直都說，隨著我們在最後幾年逐步將業務上線，我們需要一些銷售成長。這一點沒有改變。

And the way we're going to deal with that, as I mentioned to George earlier, is we'll toggle between running our K2 machine in Kalamazoo, which is the new one we just operated now for the last four years. The Waco mill, those are going to run wide open. And we'll service our business on our lowest cost assets, highest quality, lowest cost. We'll use our K1 machine, which is the smaller of the three machines, to take any downtime that we need to take to make sure that we match our supply and our demand.

正如我之前跟喬治提到的，我們將採取的應對措施是，在卡拉馬祖的 K2 機器和我們過去四年一直在運營的那台新機器之間來回切換。韋科工廠將會全速運轉。我們將利用成本最低的資產，以最高的品質和最低的成本為我們的事業提供服務。我們將使用三台機器中較小的 K1 機器來應對任何必要的停機時間，以確保我們的供應與需求相符。

And of course, we'll be working quickly to make sure that we fill that out. A lot of it depends on our customers' volumetric performance, as I mentioned earlier. If they're able to get back to at least flat volumes in 2026, that's a big deal for us because our innovation is consistently added close to 2% of volume. So that's really how to think about Waco and how we're planning for 2026 and beyond.

當然，我們會盡快完成填寫工作。正如我之前提到的，這很大程度上取決於我們客戶的銷售表現。如果他們能夠在 2026 年恢復到至少持平的銷量，這對我們來說意義重大，因為我們的創新一直能為銷量貢獻近 2% 的份額。所以，這就是我們應該如何看待韋科事件，以及我們如何規劃 2026 年及以後的事。

Okay, thanks for that, Mike. Just on the markets then, it sounds like beverage was a little bit weaker in Q3, and food service was as well. Do you expect that to continue to remain weak as you move into Q4 and '26? And maybe you can also comment on some of the other markets, food and household and health and beauty. I guess, and have you seen any change in innovation sales in those markets?

好的，謝謝你，麥克。單就市場而言，第三季飲料業和餐飲服務業似乎都略顯疲軟。您預計這種情況在進入第四季和2026年時會繼續疲軟嗎？或許您也可以對其他一些市場，例如食品、家居用品以及健康美容市場，並發表一些看法。我想也是，你有沒有觀察到這些市場創新銷售的變化？

We've been hearing anecdotally that there are maybe some trade down amongst the consumer packaging companies into traditional substrates, maybe a little bit less willingness to test the waters with some innovation-led products. I don't know if that's what you're hearing as well, but maybe you can just comment on what you're seeing on that side. Thanks.

我們從一些傳聞中得知，消費品包裝公司可能正在轉向使用傳統基材，可能不太願意嘗試一些以創新為主導的產品。我不知道你那邊是不是也聽到了同樣的說法，但或許你可以說說你那邊看到的情況。謝謝。

Yes, I'll start by saying I don't expect to see much change in Q4 versus what we saw in Q3. I mean, October started off substantially similar to what we saw in Q3. You get to read our customers' excerpts as I do. And as I talked about earlier, fast casual is down a little bit. QSR may be a little better. It's hard for us to know exactly what our customers' volume performance is right now. And I said that in my prepared remarks, given some of the things that they're doing to manage their balance sheets and production schedules around the holidays and so on and so forth.

是的，首先我想說的是，我預計第四季與第三季相比不會有太大變化。我的意思是，10 月的開局與第三季的情況非常相似。您可以像我一樣閱讀我們客戶的評價摘錄。正如我之前提到的，快餐休閒餐飲的銷量略有下降。QSR可能稍微好一些。我們很難確切地知道客戶目前的銷售表現如何。我在事先準備好的發言稿中也提到過這一點，考慮到他們在假日期間為了管理資產負債表和生產計劃而採取的一些措施等等。

So that's part of why we're being a little bit deliberate in calling that out. As we head into 2026, I know every one of these customers, as we talk to them all, are very focused on getting their volumetric performance back. They got to grow. And they're doing the things that they believe are required to do that. We see a lot of new CEOs. We see a number of restructurings that are going on. We see agitation at different levels. So hopefully that unnerves itself in biometric performance as we head into 2026, for sure.

所以，這也是我們刻意指出這一點的原因之一。展望 2026 年，我知道我們與每位客戶交談後都了解到，他們都非常關注如何恢復銷售。他們必須成長。他們正在做他們認為為實現這一目標所必需的事情。我們看到很多新任CEO。我們看到許多重組正在進行中。我們看到不同層面的騷動。所以，希望這能在2026年到來之際，對生物辨識技術的表現產生正面影響。

I would just add a couple of things. Arun, I'd just add a couple of things. This is Mark. In the beverage market, typically, you see promotion activity in the fourth quarter, but we also saw some changes in production schedules by our customers sometimes taking downtime around July 4. That didn't happen to all of our customers this year. Some of that may happen in the fourth quarter. So that adds a little bit of variability.

我只想補充幾點。阿倫，我只想補充幾點。這是馬克。在飲料市場，通常情況下，第四季會出現促銷活動，但我們也看到一些客戶調整了生產計劃，有時會在 7 月 4 日左右停產。今年並非所有客戶都遇到了這種情況。有些事情可能會在第四季發生。這樣就增加了一些變數。

We're also certainly in the food business continuing to see a lot of unevenness, customers moving from one category to another to try to save money. And not so much destocking by the food suppliers, but strategic stocking, as Mike mentioned, in terms of trying to get their year-end numbers and cash where they want it. So a lot of unusual behavior, but no real change in any of the trends.

我們身處食品業，也確實繼續看到許多不平衡現象，顧客為了省錢而從一個類別轉向另一個類別。正如麥克所提到的那樣，食品供應商並沒有減少庫存，而是進行了策略性庫存管理，以期達到他們想要的年終業績和現金流目標。所以出現了很多不尋常的行為，但任何趨勢都沒有真正的變化。

Thanks for that, Mark. And just to clarify, so it sounds like you will have the $80 million next year. And then aside from that, it's mainly volume and price that we should be keeping in mind as far as what the drivers are for any kind of EBITDA bridge. Is that correct?

謝謝你，馬克。澄清一下，聽起來你明年就能拿到 8,000 萬美元了。除此之外，對於任何類型的 EBITDA 過渡期而言，我們應該主要關注的是銷售和價格，因為它們決定了驅動因素。是這樣嗎？

Yes, that's exactly right.

是的，完全正確。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research.

馬克溫特勞布，海港研究公司。

Thank you, and thank you, Steve, for your help over the last few years. So I just wanted to revisit again. On Waco, in terms of the ramp, order of magnitude, how much tonnage would you be expecting to produce in 2026?

謝謝，也謝謝史蒂夫，謝謝你過去幾年的幫忙。所以我只是想再來一次。就韋科油田的產能爬坡能力而言，預計到 2026 年該油田的產量將達到多少噸？

Yes, Mark, I'm not going to call that out. I mean, it's going to be -- as you can think about it, though, we put it into service here in October. It's a 12- to 18-month ramp. So that's pretty quick coming up.

是的，馬克，我不會公開指出這一點。我的意思是，正如你所想，我們將在十月投入使用。這是一個為期 12 至 18 個月的過渡期。接下來就先簡單介紹一下。

For sure. And so let's say we were to assume it's 400,000 to say something. I guess what I'm just trying to think through is that East Angus is 100,000 tonnes. Middletown, I think a little less than 200,000 but was down for about half the year. Correct me if I'm wrong. We're talking about 200,000 tonnes of replacement board effectively.

一定。假設我們假設說出某句話需要 40 萬。我想弄清楚的是，東安格斯的產量是 10 萬噸。米德爾頓，我想人口略低於 20 萬，但大約有半年時間人口都在下降。如果我錯了，請指正。實際上，我們需要更換20萬噸板材。

Is the rest because you're bringing down inventory this year or maybe if you can just walk through the math, on where the Waco tonnes -- what they fill in for. And/or is there a little bit of growth that does -- just to meet the full production that you're expecting to have from Waco next year, and that'd be super helpful.

其餘部分是因為你們今年要減少庫存嗎？或者，如果您能詳細計算一下，Waco 噸位——它們填補了什麼空缺？或者，能否稍微提高一點產量——以滿足您預計明年從韋科獲得的全面產量，這將非常有幫助。

Thanks for the question. Here's the math I'm going to walk you through. If you really look at East Angus, which is our facility, it'll shut down the end of the year; and our Middletown facility, which closed the end of May; and then what others have announced that they're closing. It's 475,000 tonnes. Waco, of course, adds 550,000 tonnes to the overall market. So on a net basis there, it's about 75,000 tonnes of additional capacity that's coming online.

謝謝你的提問。接下來我將一步步為你講解其中的數學原理。如果你仔細看看我們的工廠——東安格斯工廠，它將在年底關閉；還有我們的米德爾敦工廠，它在五月底關閉；以及其他已經宣布關閉的工廠。是47.5萬噸。當然，韋科的產量為整個市場增加了 55 萬噸。因此，淨增產能約為 75,000 噸。

I'll tell you this, Mark, I need Waco to come up right now to make sure that I'm able to service my customers. You saw the APA data. Our inventories are down pretty dramatically on CUK and CRB. That's a deliberate plan on our behalf here relative to what we did. So we need those funds coming off the Waco machine to help service our customers and make sure that we take care of our overall demand.

馬克，我得告訴你，我需要韋科現在就過來，確保我能為我的客戶提供服務。你看到了APA的數據。我們的 CUK 和 CRB 庫存大幅下降。這是我們針對我們所做的事情而製定的深思熟慮的計劃。所以我們需要從韋科工廠獲得的資金來幫助服務我們的客戶，並確保我們滿足整體需求。

But you had a good note out earlier this week. We talked a little bit about K2 in Kalamazoo and Waco and balancing that production with our K1 machine. I think you got it pretty right. So I don't have a whole lot more that I think I need to add.

但你本週早些時候發表了一篇不錯的文章。我們稍微談了一下卡拉馬祖和韋科的 K2 機器，以及如何平衡其產量和我們的 K1 機器。我覺得你說得基本上正確。所以我覺得沒有什麼好補充的了。

Okay, and I fully appreciate that once everything is reset, we should be at the target levels of profitability. I'm just trying to make sure that I fully understand the transition period, though, as we go hopefully into kind of a better 2027 demand environment, et cetera, and everything is sort of kicking into gear. And I guess I'm a little -- I just want to clarify, because implicit in what you're saying -- and I don't mean to be oppositional in any way here.

好的，我完全理解，一旦一切重置完畢，我們應該能夠達到預期的獲利水準。我只是想確保我完全了解過渡期，因為我們希望能夠進入一個更好的 2027 年需求環境等等，一切都在逐步步入正軌。我想我有點——我只是想澄清一下，因為你的話裡隱含著——我絕無反對之意。

But implicit in what you're saying is that you basically have gotten a lot of the business from the other capacity that was shut. Or is there something I'm missing? Again, is it that inventory reduction which you're doing this year and therefore you're not doing it next year? And so that's why -- because those would be pretty big numbers. So just trying to fully understand.

但你話裡的言下之意是，你基本上是從其他關閉的產能那裡獲得了大量業務。還是我遺漏了什麼？再說一遍，這是因為你們今年要減少庫存，所以明年就不做了嗎？所以這就是原因——因為這些數字會非常大。我只是想徹底理解。

I think that's fair. We have work to do, in our opinion, with some of the other optionality, with some of the other substrates we have. And Waco and Kalamazoo hope to enable that as well, relative to our overall supply chain. But I think, like I said, you've got the math pretty well set. And we're going to match our supply and our demand on CRB like we always do. And that swing machine will be our K1 machine in Kalamazoo.

我覺得很公平。我們認為，在其他一些可選方案和我們擁有的其他一些基材方面，我們還有一些工作要做。韋科和卡拉馬祖也希望能夠為我們的整體供應鏈做出貢獻。但我覺得，就像我說的，你的數學計算已經相當完善了。我們將像往常一樣，使CRB的供應和需求相匹配。而那台旋轉訓練器將成為我們在卡拉馬祖的 K1 訓練器。

Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。謝謝。

Mike Rockland, Truist Securities.

Mike Rockland，Truist Securities。

Yes, thank you, Mike, Steve, Chuck, and Mark for taking my questions. And I'll just echo what everybody else has said. Steve, thank you for all your help over the years and wishing you the best of luck in the future. In terms of the '26 free cash flow bridge, obviously you guys have expressed confidence in the $700 million to $800 million of free cash flow next year. Just trying to get some more color around it. Because year-to-date adjusted free cash flow, as you pointed out in your press release, is minus $332 million.

是的，謝謝Mike、Steve、Chuck和Mark回答我的問題。我只想重複一下其他人說過的話。史蒂夫，感謝你多年來的幫助，祝你未來一切順利。關於 2026 年的自由現金流過渡期，顯然你們對明年 7 億至 8 億美元的自由現金流表示了信心。只是想給它周圍增添一些色彩。正如您在新聞稿中指出的那樣，年初至今的調整後自由現金流為負 3.32 億美元。

So you have the $400 million of CapEx step down. So you're looking at a starting point of $68 million in terms of free cash flow. I know you get a $500 million of free cash flow in 4Q due to working capital unwind. But also, you are contending with, I think, a higher working capital cash taxes and interest. But you called that on your call last quarter of about $300 million, $350 million. So can you help me reconcile those moving pieces I just mentioned with the $700 million to $800 million you're still confident you will achieve next year?

所以，4億美元的資本支出計畫已經逐步取消。所以，就自由現金流而言，你的起點是 6,800 萬美元。我知道由於營運資金的釋放，你們在第四季獲得了 5 億美元的自由現金流。但我認為，您還面臨更高的營運資金現金稅和利息支出。但你在上個季度的電話會議上預測了大約 3 億到 3.5 億美元。那麼，您能否幫我解釋一下，我剛才提到的那些不確定因素與您仍然自信地認為明年能夠實現的 7 億至 8 億美元的目標之間的聯繫？

Yes, I'm going to focus in on 2026 and give you a little bridge. You have to remember, Michael, and you know this, Q4 is always our big cash quarter. So we'd expect that gap to close dramatically, as it always does every year. And as we look at next year, we've got the contribution from Waco. We've already talked about that. And then the bridge is really pretty straightforward. It's around the CapEx reduction, which we've already talked about, which is close to $400 million here, as Mark just mentioned.

是的，我將重點放在 2026 年，並給你一些過渡。邁克爾，你得記住，你也知道，第四季總是我們現金流最充裕的季度。因此，我們預計這一差距將大幅縮小，就像每年都會發生的那樣。展望明年，我們還有來自韋科的貢獻。我們之前已經討論過這個問題了。然後，這座橋其實非常簡單。這主要與資本支出削減有關，我們已經討論過了，正如馬克剛才提到的，這筆削減額接近 4 億美元。

We've got cost control that we've got at our disposal, both in terms of SG&A as well as things we would do at the plant levels and discretionary spending. And we've got inventory that we're really going to focus in on too. And like I said, I'm really excited about our new platform with five large, well-capitalized paperboard manufacturing facilities that there's more capital release that we can work on, both in terms of roll stock as well as finished goods as we roll into next year. And that's the bridge. And that's what gives me really a high level of confidence in the $700 million to $800 million next year.

我們擁有可控的成本控製手段，包括銷售、一般及行政費用，以及我們在工廠層級和可自由支配支出方面所做的工作。我們還有一些庫存需要重點處理。正如我所說，我對我們的新平台感到非常興奮，該平台擁有五家資金雄厚的大型紙板製造廠，這將釋放更多資金，使我們能夠在卷材和成品方面開展更多工作，尤其是在明年。這就是橋。也因為如此，我對明年7億至8億美元的收入充滿信心。

Got it, Mike. (multiple speakers) I'm sorry, go ahead.

明白了，麥克。（多人）對不起，請繼續。

Hey, this is Chuck Lischer. I was just going to add that this is one of the areas that I've dug into over the last few weeks, and I share Mike's high level of confidence in this area. He mentioned the levers. We know what they are. We're going to pull them. In addition to that, cash, federal cash taxes are going to be very favorable for us next year, near zero. And so we know what the levers are. We're ready to pull them, and we have a high level of confidence in the numbers.

大家好，我是查克·利舍爾。我正想補充一點，這是我在過去幾週深入研究的領域之一，而且我和麥克一樣，對這個領域充滿信心。他提到了槓桿。我們知道它們是什麼。我們要把它們撤走。除此之外，明年聯邦現金稅對我們來說將非常有利，接近零。所以我們知道了關鍵因素是什麼。我們已經準備好撤回它們，並且對數據非常有信心。

Thank you for that, Chuck, and I didn't mean to interrupt you there. So it sounds like last call you mentioned $300 million, $250 million of interest, cash taxes, working capital. That sounds like that's coming down significantly as well.

謝謝你，查克，我不是故意打斷你的。聽起來上次通話你提到了 3 億美元，其中 2.5 億美元是利息，還有現金稅和營運資金。聽起來價格也要大幅下降了。

We're going to have to take that bridging offline, Michael. Let's do that. Again, I'm focused, and as I said, the levers that we're pulling here in the $700 million to $800 million, we'll help you get your model right so that it works, but let's take that offline after the call.

邁克爾，我們得把那段橋接線路斷開。那就這麼做吧。我再次強調，我專注於此，正如我所說，我們正在利用這 7 億到 8 億美元的資金，幫助你完善你的模型，使其有效運作，但我們通話結束後再私下討論這個問題。

No problem. One quick follow up, I know we're running out of time here. Just in terms of the 550,000 tonnes for Waco, I mean, how comfortable are you bringing on that full amount of capacity that's 12 to 18 months in a market that's depressed? Or are you assuming that we're not going to be in the same place 12 months from now?

沒問題。最後再補充一點，我知道我們時間不多了。就韋科的 55 萬噸產能而言，我的意思是，在市場低迷的情況下，你有多大把握在 12 到 18 個月內全面投產？還是你認為12個月後我們不會還在同一個地方？

It's a lot of capacity. I understand on a net basis it's 75,000 tonnes, I get that. The market itself, as you pointed out, your competitors are acting irrationally. Do you tend to bring the 550,000 folding on by anything much, or do you have flexibility to basically push that out further if SBS, the folding cards, does not improve materially in the near term?

容量很大。我明白淨產量是75000噸，我懂。正如你所指出的，市場本身，你的競爭對手的行為是不理性的。你們通常會大幅增加 55 萬張折疊卡片的數量嗎？或者，如果 SBS（折疊卡片）在短期內沒有實質改善，你們是否有彈性，可以進一步推遲這個目標？

We're going to ramp Waco as fast as we can. It's our lowest cost, highest quality mill, along with our K2 machine in Kalamazoo, as I've mentioned a number of times here now. If I need to match my supply and our demand, we'll do it on our K1 machine. So I want to bring it on as fast as we can. It's a great facility. It's going to allow us to compete in markets that, quite frankly, we haven't been able to compete in before.

我們將盡快提升韋科的產能。正如我之前多次提到的，這是我們成本最低、品質最高的磨機，還有我們在卡拉馬祖的 K2 機器。如果需要使供應量與需求量相匹配，我們會用 K1 機器來完成。所以我想盡快推進這件事。這是一個很棒的設施。這將使我們能夠進入以前從未涉足的市場。

It's going to help us deal with some of that behavior by some of the bleached board producers in a way that allows us to protect our industry-leading margins. So you want us to do that. It really makes sense to do so. Look, you'd love to bring a brand-new machine on like we brought the K2 machine on into a really snug market. But if you make a decision, it takes a number of years, in our case 2.5 years, to bring it on. This is what we've got. We've got a lot of levers to pull, and our confidence level is high to deliver the free cash flow next year. That's really what our focus is.

這將有助於我們應對一些漂白板生產商的此類行為，從而保護我們行業領先的利潤率。所以你們想讓我們這麼做。這樣做確實很有道理。你看，你肯定很想把一款全新的機器像我們當初把 K2 機器引入競爭非常激烈的市場一樣引入市場。但是，如果你做出決定，就需要數年時間，就我們而言是 2.5 年，才能實現。這就是我們目前的情況。我們有很多手段可以運用，我們有很高的信心在明年實現自由現金流目標。這才是我們真正關注的重點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Anojja Shah, UBS.

阿諾賈·沙阿，瑞銀集團。

Hi, guys. Good morning. Just one quick one for me. When I think about capital allocation priorities next year, it's going to have a lot of free cash flow. You talked about deleveraging, of course, share repurchases, CapEx goes down significantly. Is there anything else in there we should be thinking about? Like, I don't know, is there room for bulletin M&A or expansion international markets? How are you thinking about it?

嗨，大家好。早安.我只問一個問題。當我考慮明年的資本配置優先事項時，我認為它將擁有大量的自由現金流。你當然談到了去槓桿化、股票回購，資本支出也大幅下降。還有其他需要考慮的地方嗎？例如，我不知道，公告式的併購或擴張國際市場是否有發展空間？你是怎麼考慮的？

Hey, good morning, Anojja. From my standpoint, it's really two things that are our priorities. It's delivering our balance sheet, which we've talked about, as well as returning cash to shareholders. That's our focus.

嘿，早上好，Anojja。在我看來，我們真正優先考慮的是兩件事。它改善了我們的資產負債表（我們已經討論過這個問題），同時也向股東返還了現金。這是我們的重點。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. That was all the time we have for questions. I would now like to pass the floor back to Mike Doss for closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的提問時間就到此為止了。現在我謹將發言權交還給麥克多斯，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, operator. And thank you, everyone, for joining us on our call today. With Waco up and running, we have five of America's very best paperboard manufacturing facilities, the strongest and most capable global packaging manufacturing network, and the world's best packaging innovation team.

謝謝接線生。感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。隨著韋科工廠的投產運營，我們擁有美國五家最好的紙板製造工廠、最強大、最有能力的全球包裝製造網絡，以及世界上最好的包裝創新團隊。

We are uniquely positioned to deliver exceptional results for our customers and to generate strong, steady cash flow across the next half decade and beyond. I want to thank our employees for their dedication and our stockholders for their confidence in Graphic Packaging. Thank you and have a great day.

我們擁有獨特的優勢，能夠為客戶帶來卓越的成果，並在未來五年及更長時間內產生強勁、穩定的現金流。我要感謝我們員工的奉獻精神，以及股東對Graphic Packaging的信任。謝謝，祝您今天過得愉快。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you once again for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以暫時斷開連接，祝您有美好的一天。再次感謝您的參與。