Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. Welcome to Graphic Packaging second-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions).

大家好。歡迎參加 Graphic Packaging 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mark Connolly. The floor is yours.

現在我很高興將發言權交給主持人馬克康諾利。現在輪到你了。

Good morning. We have with us today Mike Doss, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Scherger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. During this call, we will reference our second quarter 2025 earnings presentation available through this webcast and on our website at www.Graphicpkg.com.

早安.今天和我們在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Mike Doss 和執行副總裁兼財務長史蒂夫謝爾格 (Steve Scherger)。在本次電話會議中，我們將參考我們 2025 年第二季的收益報告，該報告可透過本次網路廣播和我們的網站 www.Graphicpkg.com 取得。

Today's presentation will include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections.

今天的演示將包括《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。

These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in today's press release and in our SEC filings. Now let me turn the call over to Mike.

這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於今天的新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素。現在讓我把電話轉給麥克。

Thank you, Mark. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. Graphic Packaging is a global leader in sustainable consumer packaging. In the second quarter, we saw a continuation of uneven volumes as consumers remain stretched. Promotional activity helped drive modest volume improvement in some categories.

謝謝你，馬克。大家早安，感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議。Graphic Packaging 是永續消費包裝的全球領導者。在第二季度，由於消費者仍然捉襟見肘，我們看到銷售持續不平衡。促銷活動有助於推動某些類別的銷售適度成長。

Conversations with our customers suggest potential for an increase in focus on volume growth and protecting their market share in the quarters ahead. Meanwhile, the last major investment in our Vision 2025 is nearing completion, and we expect to generate cash substantially in excess of our needs beginning in 2026.

與客戶的對話表明，未來幾季我們可能會更加關注銷售成長和保護他們的市場份額。同時，我們「2025 願景」的最後一項重大投資即將完成，我們預計從 2026 年開始產生的現金將大大超過我們的需求。

In the second quarter, Graphic Packaging sales were $2.2 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $336 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.3% and adjusted EPS was $0.42. Volumes in the Americas were modestly better than expected, driven mainly by an increase in beverage promotion and some targeted promotional activity in food and foodservice. Our decision to curtail production to further reduce inventory levels did impact our adjusted EBITDA margin but positions us to operate much closer to normal levels in the second half.

第二季度，圖形包裝銷售額為 22 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.36 億美元。調整後EBITDA利潤率為15.3%，調整後每股盈餘為0.42美元。美洲市場銷售略好於預期，主要得益於飲料促銷活動的增加以及食品和餐飲服務領域的一些定向促銷活動。我們決定削減產量以進一步降低庫存水平，這確實影響了我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，但使我們下半年的營運水平更接近正常水平。

Turning to Slide 3. We will bring our Waco recycled paperboard investment to life in the fourth quarter. While the project remains on schedule, we are experiencing higher costs, principally labor and final engineering and design costs related to permitting and insurance requirements.

翻到幻燈片 3。我們將在第四季度啟動對韋科再生紙板的投資。雖然專案仍在按計劃進行，但我們的成本卻在增加，主要是與許可和保險要求相關的勞動力和最終工程和設計成本。

We are now estimating 2025 capital expenditures of $850 million. In 2026, capital spending will decline to 5% of sales, consistent with our original targets. The higher spending in 2025 will be offset by lower cash taxes after recent federal tax law changes and lower working capital as we reduce inventories. So we expect no net impact on estimated 2025 free cash flow.

我們現在估計 2025 年的資本支出為 8.5 億美元。2026年，資本支出將下降至銷售額的5%，與我們最初的目標一致。2025 年的支出增加將被近期聯邦稅法變化導致的現金稅降低以及庫存減少導致的營運資本降低所抵銷。因此，我們預計 2025 年預計自由現金流不會受到淨影響。

With Waco set to begin production later this year, we closed our Middletown, Ohio paperboard manufacturing facility in May. We are now serving those customers mainly from existing inventory. Waco is the last major investment of our Vision 2025 transformation program. Recycled paperboard has by a wide margin, the lowest environmental footprint, the lowest upfront capital and sustaining capital requirements and with our quality advantage can replace more expensive to produce bleached paperboard in a wide range of applications.

由於韋科計劃於今年稍後開始生產，我們於五月關閉了位於俄亥俄州米德爾頓的紙板製造工廠。我們現在主要利用現有庫存為這些客戶提供服務。韋科是我們「2025願景」轉型計畫的最後一項重大投資。再生紙板對環境的影響最小，前期資本和維持資本要求最低，並且憑藉我們的品質優勢，可以在廣泛的應用中取代生產成本更高的漂白紙板。

When you look at the numbers from an investor standpoint, there is just no comparison. We will continue to utilize bleached paperboard where appropriate. From the vantage point of cost, capital and consumer appeal, recycled is superior to bleached, and we will continue to keep our footprint in bleached paperboard small and focused.

當你從投資人的角度來看這些數字時，根本就沒有可比性。我們將繼續在適當的情況下使用漂白紙板。從成本、資本和消費者吸引力的角度來看，再生紙板優於漂白紙板，我們將繼續專注於漂白紙板的較小規模和範圍。

We were pleased by the recent decision of the Recycled Materials Association to, for the very first time, include paper cups in their single stream and dual stream recycling specifications. Graphic Packaging's own (inaudible) worked closely with the association and with our colleagues at Closed Loop Partners and the Foodservice Packaging Institute to promote and encourage this important update.

我們很高興看到再生材料協會最近做出決定，首次將紙杯納入其單流和雙流回收規範中。Graphic Packaging 自己的（聽不清楚）與該協會以及 Closed Loop Partners 和食品服務包裝研究所的同事密切合作，以推廣和鼓勵這項重要更新。

The association's guidelines are highly influential with waste collectors and with thousands of material recovery facilities in deciding what does and doesn't get collected in municipal recycling and collection systems. As the largest producer of paper cups in North America and a major user of recovered fiber, this update has particular significance to us.

該協會的指導方針對廢棄物收集者和數千個材料回收設施具有很大的影響力，決定了市政回收和收集系統可以收集什麼，不可以收集什麼。作為北美最大的紙杯生產商和回收纖維的主要用戶，此次更新對我們具有特殊的意義。

We designed Waco to take full advantage of this high-quality underutilized fiber source, which today mostly ends up in landfills. I've already mentioned our action on inventory. Steve will discuss capital allocation in his comments in a few minutes. As expected, volumes across consumer staples remain uneven.

我們設計 Waco 是為了充分利用這種未充分利用的優質纖維來源，如今這些纖維大部分最終都被填埋了。我已經提到了我們在庫存方面的行動。史蒂夫將在幾分鐘後的評論中討論資本配置。正如預期的那樣，各類消費必需品的銷售量仍然不均衡。

A stretch consumer is spending more money on groceries but leaving the store with fewer items than they did a year ago. Our volumes in the Americas were roughly flat, modestly better than expected, and we again outperformed the broader CPG and QSR markets we serve.

過度消費指的是在食品雜貨上花費更多錢，但離開商店時購買的商品卻比一年前更少。我們在美洲的銷售量基本上持平，略好於預期，我們的表現再次超越了我們所服務的更廣泛的 CPG 和 QSR 市場。

Our international results remain positive, but growth slowed modestly, confirming that consumers in those markets are also stretched as we cautioned last quarter. Private label and store brands continue to gain traction in select food categories. Trademarking activity has also been accelerating, suggesting that private label offerings will continue to expand across more grocery and other consumer staple categories.

我們的國際業績仍然保持積極，但成長略有放緩，證實了這些市場的消費者也面臨壓力，正如我們上個季度所警告的那樣。自有品牌和商店品牌在特定食品類別中繼續受到青睞。商標註冊活動也在加速，這表明自有品牌產品將繼續擴展到更多的食品雜貨和其他消費必需品類別。

We have an excellent position with retailers and co-packers and have been particularly pleased with the reception our innovation portfolio is getting from these customers. We delivered innovation sales growth of $61 million in the second quarter and are on track to reach our 2% of sales growth target for the full year. While we have seen a few customers scale back their packaging innovation plans in the near term, most customers remain committed to reducing the environmental footprint of their packaging and our innovation sales pipeline remains robust.

我們在零售商和聯合包裝商中佔據著良好的地位，並且對我們的創新產品組合受到這些客戶的歡迎感到特別高興。我們在第二季度實現了 6,100 萬美元的創新銷售額成長，並有望實現全年 2% 的銷售成長目標。雖然我們看到一些客戶在短期內縮減了包裝創新計劃，但大多數客戶仍然致力於減少包裝對環境的影響，我們的創新銷售管道仍然強勁。

Turning to Slide 4. The breadth and depth of our consumer staples packaging portfolio is the foundation of our strength. We are in every aisle of the supermarket and are a major packaging supplier to quick service restaurants. Over time, we expect to grow our presence substantially across household products and health and beauty as customers increasingly embrace recycled paperboard as a less expensive, more logical and more appealing alternative to bleached paperboard.

翻到幻燈片 4。我們的消費必需品包裝產品組合的廣度和深度是我們實力的基礎。我們的產品遍佈超市的每個貨架，並且是快餐店的主要包裝供應商。隨著時間的推移，隨著客戶越來越多地接受再生紙板作為漂白紙板的一種更便宜、更合理、更具吸引力的替代品，我們期望大幅擴大我們在家庭用品和健康美容領域的影響力。

Turning to Slide 5. Overall second quarter packaging sales were roughly flat year-over-year. Food results remained uneven. Snacks are among the more discretionary grocery items and saw pressure, although bars continue to benefit from wellness trends. Cereal saw continued weakness, but pasta, sauces and prepared foods saw gains as consumers shifted from high-cost alternatives.

翻到幻燈片 5。第二季整體包裝銷售量與去年同期大致持平。食品結果仍不均衡。零食屬於較為可自由支配的食品雜貨之一，因此面臨壓力，不過能量棒則繼續受益於健康趨勢。穀物持續疲軟，但隨著消費者不再選擇高成本的替代品，義大利麵、醬料和預製食品的銷售量出現上漲。

Our Boardio container is driving solid growth for us in coffee, where we are also benefiting from a trend towards more home and office consumption. In the Americas, frozen foods saw further declines as consumers shifted to fresh and refrigerated categories, including bakery.

我們的 Boardio 容器正在推動我們咖啡業務的穩定成長，同時我們也受益於家庭和辦公室消費增加的趨勢。在美洲，隨著消費者轉向包括烘焙食品在內的新鮮和冷藏食品類別，冷凍食品的銷售量進一步下滑。

Grocery stores generally earn higher margin on freshly prepared food items and are continuing to expand and promote their fresh offerings. In Europe, Frozen food results remain solid as consumers in those markets continue to prioritize convenience. After solid beverage seasons in 2023 and 2024, we are encouraged to see 2025 again off to a very good start.

雜貨店通常從新鮮食品中獲得更高的利潤，並且正在繼續擴大和推廣其新鮮食品。在歐洲，冷凍食品的表現依然穩健，因為這些市場的消費者仍然優先考慮便利性。在經歷了 2023 年和 2024 年飲料季的強勁表現後，我們很高興看到 2025 年將再次迎來一個非常好的開始。

Beer’s decline moderated for us and carbonated soft drinks saw good growth on the back of higher promotional activity around Memorial Day. July and August are the heart of the beverage season, and July results have been very good. Energy drinks, flavored seltzer and wellness beverages are continuing to gain in popularity with consumers.

對我們來說，啤酒的銷量下滑勢頭有所緩和，而碳酸軟性飲料則在陣亡將士紀念日前後促銷活動的推動下實現了良好的增長。七月和八月是飲料季的重點，七月的表現非常好。能量飲料、風味蘇打水和健康飲料越來越受到消費者的歡迎。

Foodservice results were relatively unchanged despite some aggressive, but targeted promotional activity. We are actively engaging with our QSR customers on their strategies to drive higher foot traffic. Promotional activity in Europe continues to drive volume more successfully than it has in the United States to this point.

儘管採取了一些積極但有針對性的促銷活動，但餐飲服務的表現相對沒有變化。我們正在積極與 QSR 客戶合作，制定提高客流量的策略。到目前為止，歐洲的促銷活動繼續比美國更成功地推動銷售。

Household product results were relatively unchanged overall with tissue products turning positive and food storage remaining strong. Health and beauty is still mostly an international business for us, although we expect that to change over time. Fragrances are showing further recovery after a good result last quarter, and health care products also showed improvement.

家用產品業績整體相對沒有變化，紙巾產品表現良好，食品儲存業務保持強勁。對我們來說，健康和美容仍然主要是國際業務，儘管我們預計這種情況會隨著時間的推移而改變。香水類產品繼上季取得良好業績後，正在進一步復甦，保健產品也呈現改善動能。

Slide 6 highlights our five packaging innovation platforms, which are key to generating top line growth over time. We are seeing good opportunities across each of these areas, and every new product launch adds to our insights and to the value we bring to our customers.

幻燈片 6 重點介紹了我們的五個包裝創新平台，這些平台對於長期實現收入成長至關重要。我們在這些領域都看到了良好的機遇，每一次新產品的推出都會增加我們的洞察力，並增加我們為客戶帶來的價值。

On Slide 7, I want to highlight an innovation specifically designed for club store customers. Most of the innovations we have highlighted recently are focused on plastic replacement, but sometimes innovation means taking a fresh look at traditional packaging solutions and creating something better.

在第 7 張投影片上，我想重點介紹一項專為俱樂部商店顧客設計的創新。我們最近強調的大多數創新都集中在塑膠替代上，但有時創新意味著重新審視傳統包裝解決方案並創造更好的產品。

One of our largest CPG customers asked us to help them develop a more cost-effective bulk packaging solution for coffee pods. Working closely with their product development and marketing teams, we developed a solution that reduces materials, cuts production and material handling costs, improves on-shelf marketing impact and delivers a superior customer experience.

我們最大的 CPG 客戶之一要求我們幫助他們開發更具成本效益的咖啡包散裝包裝解決方案。透過與他們的產品開發和行銷團隊密切合作，我們開發了一種解決方案，可以減少材料、降低生產和材料處理成本、提高貨架行銷影響力並提供卓越的客戶體驗。

The traditional packaging method for bulk coffee pods is called dump fill. You set up a corrugated box, dump the pods in and glue the box shut. Our nested pod solution is better from nearly every angle. As you can see in these pictures, by orienting pods and layers, the new design eliminated the dead space at the top and fit the same number of pods into a 21% smaller package.

散裝咖啡包的傳統包裝方法稱為「傾倒填充」。你準備一個瓦楞紙箱，將豆莢倒入其中，然後用膠水將紙箱封上。我們的巢狀 pod 解決方案幾乎從各個角度來看都更好。正如您在這些圖片中看到的，透過調整豆莢和層的方向，新設計消除了頂部的死角，並將相同數量的豆莢裝入了縮小 21% 的包裝中。

It also uses 30% less material per package. Reorienting the container to be narrower and taller gives the package more shelf appeal and takes up less space in the consumer's pantry. The taller, narrower box also means that we can stack 26 boxes per layer on a pallet rather than just 16 and are only stacking four layers high rather than five.

每個包裝使用的材料也減少了 30%。將容器重新調整得更窄更高，使包裝更具貨架吸引力，並減少在消費者食品儲藏室中佔用的空間。更高、更窄的箱子也意味著我們可以在托盤上每層堆放 26 個箱子，而不僅僅是 16 個，而且堆疊高度只有四層，而不是五層。

Moving the opening to the top center made the size and corners of the package stronger. With fewer layers and a stronger structure, we were able to switch to layer in our materials. And finally, we replaced the expensive bleached paperboard top sheet with our Pacesetter Rainier recycled paperboard that lowered the cost further and reduced the package's overall environmental footprint with 100% recycled alternative that provides the same outstanding print quality.

將開口移至頂部中央使得包裝的尺寸和角落更加堅固。透過更少的層數和更強的結構，我們能夠在材料中切換到層。最後，我們用 Pacesetter Rainier 再生紙板取代了昂貴的漂白紙板面層，進一步降低了成本，並透過 100% 再生替代品減少了包裝的整體環境足跡，同時提供了同樣出色的印刷品質。

This new nested coffee pod solution is on the store shelves right now and represents the gold standard for coffee pod packaging. Turning to Slide 8. Our vision for Graphic Packaging is clear. Our focus on innovation, culture and commitment to sustainability is how we generate best-in-class results for our customers and for all our stakeholders.

這種新型嵌套咖啡包解決方案目前已在商店貨架上銷售，代表了咖啡包包裝的黃金標準。翻到幻燈片 8。我們對圖形包裝的願景很明確。我們專注於創新、文化和對永續發展的承諾，這是我們為客戶和所有利害關係人創造一流成果的方式。

When our Waco investment is complete, we will have everything we need to reach our Vision 2030 goals. On the governance front, I'm happy to report that we recently published our 2024 impact report. We've added two new directors to our Board in the past year with extensive operational and senior leadership experience in food and health care, and we are in the process of declassifying our Board.

當我們的韋科投資完成後，我們將擁有實現 2030 願景目標所需的一切。在治理方面，我很高興地報告，我們最近發布了 2024 年影響報告。去年，我們董事會增加了兩名新董事，他們在食品和醫療保健領域擁有豐富的營運和高階領導經驗，而且我們正在對董事會進行解密。

Our commitment to driving shareholder value is stronger than ever, and Vision 2030 is our road map. Now let me turn the discussion over to Steve for a review of the company's financial performance and capital allocation.

我們對提升股東價值的承諾比以往任何時候都更加堅定，而「2030願景」就是我們的路線圖。現在，讓我將討論交給史蒂夫，讓他審查一下公司的財務表現和資本配置。

Thank you, Mike. Turning to Slide 9. Sales for the second quarter of 2025 were $2.2 billion. If we exclude the impact of the Augusta divestiture and the impact of foreign exchange in the quarter, packaging sales were roughly flat. Packaging price was approximately 1% lower, which mainly reflects the impact of third-party price recognition from 2024.

謝謝你，麥克。翻到幻燈片 9。2025 年第二季的銷售額為 22 億美元。如果我們排除奧古斯塔資產剝離和本季外匯的影響，包裝銷售額基本上持平。包裝價格下降約1%，主要反映了2024年起第三方價格認可的影響。

Overall volume was up approximately 1%, with Americas basically flat and international, modestly positive. Adjusted EBITDA was $336 million, in line with the commentary we provided in June. The second quarter is our biggest maintenance quarter, and we took aggressive action to manage inventories, which had an incremental impact on our reported margin, but positions us to run at more normal levels in the second half.

整體交易量上漲約 1%，其中美洲地區基本持平，國際地區則略有上漲。調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.36 億美元，與我們 6 月提供的評論一致。第二季度是我們最大的維護季度，我們採取了積極的措施來管理庫存，這對我們的報告利潤率產生了增量影響，但使我們在下半年能夠以更正常的水平運行。

During the second quarter, the impact of lower prices, input cost inflation, labor and benefits inflation and the Augusta divestiture reduced EBITDA by approximately $64 million. Our actions to reduce inventory drove net performance negative in the quarter, more than offsetting a modest benefit from higher volume for a combined net negative $13 million.

第二季度，價格下跌、投入成本上漲、勞動力和福利上漲以及奧古斯塔資產剝離的影響導致 EBITDA 減少了約 6,400 萬美元。我們減少庫存的措施導致本季淨業績為負，抵銷了銷售增加帶來的適度收益，合計淨虧損 1,300 萬美元。

Inflation did moderate in the second quarter with lower resin, recovered fiber and logistics costs compared to the first quarter. Foreign exchange was an $11 million tailwind. Slide 10 highlights the still challenging consumer packaging environment on the left and the strength of our business model and execution on the right.

第二季通貨膨脹確實有所緩和，與第一季相比，樹脂、回收纖維和物流成本下降。外匯是 1100 萬美元的順風。幻燈片 10 左側突出顯示了仍然充滿挑戰的消費包裝環境，右側突出顯示了我們的商業模式和執行力的優勢。

While inflation and our inventory management decisions pushed our margins below normal this quarter, less maintenance and the actions we have taken on both costs and production should push margins closer to normal levels in the second half, and we will see the Waco investment benefits starting in 2026.

雖然通貨膨脹和我們的庫存管理決策導致本季度我們的利潤率低於正常水平，但維護的減少以及我們在成本和生產方面採取的措施應該會使下半年的利潤率更接近正常水平，而且我們將從 2026 年開始看到 Waco 投資收益。

Turning to Slide 11. We repurchased 1.6% of the company's outstanding shares during the second quarter at an average price of $22.26 per share. We allowed net leverage to rise modestly in the quarter, taking advantage of what we believe was an unusually attractive stock price. We expect to end the year with net leverage below 3.5 times, in line with our guidance.

翻到幻燈片 11。我們在第二季以每股 22.26 美元的平均價格回購了該公司 1.6% 的流通股。我們允許淨槓桿率在本季適度上升，利用我們認為異常有吸引力的股價。我們預計今年年底淨槓桿率將低於 3.5 倍，符合我們的預期。

In the appendix to today's presentation on Slide 18, we highlight the company's strong record of opportunistic share repurchase. Since 2018, when we completed the combination with International Paper's Consumer business, Graphic Packaging has repurchased nearly 1/4 of the company, while we doubled in size and completed the transformation into a global consumer packaging leader. With the Waco investment nearing completion, free cash flow will rise substantially. And as of June 30, availability under share repurchase authorizations was approximately $1.75 billion.

在今天投影片 18 的附錄中，我們重點介紹了該公司在機會性股票回購方面的良好記錄。自2018年完成與國際紙業消費品業務的合併以來，Graphic Packaging已回購了該公司近四分之一的股份，而我們的規模則擴大了一倍，完成了向全球消費品包裝領導者的轉型。隨著韋科投資接近完成，自由現金流將大幅增加。截至 6 月 30 日，股票回購授權下的可用資金約為 17.5 億美元。

Turning to the outlook on Slide 12. We have updated our guidance to reflect performance to date and a somewhat narrower range of outcomes with no change to the adjusted EBITDA midpoint. Volume uncertainty remains elevated given the stretched consumer and the targeted promotional activity we are seeing, particularly in food packaging, our biggest market.

轉向第 12 張幻燈片上的展望。我們已更新我們的指引，以反映迄今為止的業績和略微縮小的結果範圍，而調整後的 EBITDA 中點沒有變化。鑑於消費者的壓力和我們看到的有針對性的促銷活動，尤其是在我們最大的市場——食品包裝領域，銷售的不確定性仍然很高。

Many, if not most of our CPG and QSR customers continue to express caution about their own near-term volume outlooks. As I mentioned, we expect second half adjusted EBITDA margins to be meaningfully better than first half as a result of actions we have taken to reduce inventories, less scheduled maintenance and normal seasonality.

我們的許多（如果不是大多數）CPG 和 QSR 客戶繼續對自己的近期銷售前景表示謹慎。正如我所提到的，由於我們採取了減少庫存、減少定期維護和正常季節性的措施，我們預計下半年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將比上半年明顯改善。

As Mike mentioned, the increase in capital spending in 2025 is offset elsewhere. And so our expected 2025 free cash flow remains unchanged. This late phase increase in project costs is not expected to materially affect overall investment returns. Waco's economic and quality advantages are expected to be even stronger than they were in our previous estimates.

正如麥克所提到的，2025 年資本支出的增加將被其他方面所抵銷。因此，我們預期的 2025 年自由現金流保持不變。預計專案後期成本的增加不會對整體投資回報產生重大影響。預計韋科的經濟和品質優勢將比我們先前的估計更加強大。

Slide 13 summarizes the company's Vision 2030 base financial model and capital allocation priorities, which are unchanged. As we move toward 2026, Graphic Packaging will return to a more normal level of reinvestment for growth and productivity, which is included in our 5% of sales CapEx target.

投影片 13 總結了公司的 2030 願景基本財務模型和資本配置優先事項，這些優先事項保持不變。隨著我們邁向 2026 年，Graphic Packaging 將恢復到更正常的成長和生產力再投資水平，這包含在我們的 5% 銷售資本支出目標中。

We expect to generate free cash substantially in excess of our needs over the next several years, and we plan to return significant capital to stockholders while also reducing debt levels. We remain committed to an investment-grade credit rating by 2030.

我們預計未來幾年將產生遠超過我們需求的自由現金，我們計劃向股東返還大量資本，同時降低債務水準。我們仍致力於在 2030 年實現投資等級信用評等。

On Slide 14, given the weaker near-term volumes and their impact on 2025 adjusted EBITDA, we've adjusted our expectations for 2026 free cash flow to $700 million to $800 million. As volume moves back to more normal levels, we expect to achieve our original free cash flow targets in 2027 and beyond.

在投影片 14 中，鑑於近期交易量較弱及其對 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 的影響，我們將 2026 年自由現金流預期調整為 7 億至 8 億美元。隨著交易量恢復到更正常的水平，我們預計將在 2027 年及以後實現我們最初的自由現金流目標。

In the appendix that begins with Slide 15, you will find additional information that may be useful for modeling, information on seasonality and the review of our buyback history, which I referenced earlier. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, let's begin the Q&A.

在從投影片 15 開始的附錄中，您將找到可能對建模有用的其他資訊、季節性資訊以及我之前提到的回購歷史回顧。我們的準備好的演講到此結束。接線員，我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

Good morning. So I had a question about the -- in terms of the increase in capital spending from $700 million to $850 million, so that impacts free cash flow in '26. I'm just trying to understand kind of the flow-through because it looked like you trimmed the '26 free cash flow number.

早安.所以我有一個問題——關於資本支出從 7 億美元增加到 8.5 億美元，這會影響 26 年的自由現金流。我只是想了解一下流通情況，因為看起來你削減了 26 年的自由現金流數字。

And then is that just completely sort of onetime in nature? And then '27, you're kind of stepping up from a lower base? Or just -- can you help us understand how that sort of flows through and impacts cash from '25, '26, '27?

那麼這在本質上是否完全是一次性的？那麼，從 27 年開始，您是否就開始從較低的基礎上進步了？或者只是——您能幫助我們了解這種流動如何影響 25、26、27 年的現金嗎？

Yes, Anthony, it's Steve. I'll take that. In 2025, as we articulated, CapEx, $850 million, a combination of cash taxes, working capital down $150 million. That's driven by some benefits from the recent tax legislation, about $50 million and a decrease in working capital as we've significantly reduced working capital. So for 2025, no change in our free cash flow and as such, no change in our expectations for year-end leverage.

是的，安東尼，我是史蒂夫。我會接受的。正如我們所闡述的，2025 年，資本支出為 8.5 億美元，現金稅和營運資本合計減少 1.5 億美元。這是受到最近稅收立法帶來的一些好處（約 5000 萬美元）和營運資本減少（因為我們大幅減少了營運資本）的推動。因此，到 2025 年，我們的自由現金流不會發生變化，因此，我們對年終槓桿率的預期也不會改變。

In 2026, what we've done is we've updated 2026 cash flow for our expectations of where the leap-off point is for this year's EBITDA. And so that's got 2025 EBITDA at the midpoint of 1.5. Our assumption, obviously, is that will grow next year. And then the cash to run the company in 2026 is very consistent with what we've shared previously. Total cash for CapEx, interest, taxes, working capital will be between $750 million and $850 million, and that will have CapEx at 5% of sales.

2026 年，我們所做的是更新了 2026 年現金流，以適應我們對今年 EBITDA 起點的預期。這樣，2025 年的 EBITDA 中位數為 1.5。顯然，我們的假設是明年會成長。那麼 2026 年營運公司的現金與我們之前分享的非常一致。資本支出、利息、稅金和營運資本的總現金將在 7.5 億美元至 8.5 億美元之間，其中資本支出佔銷售額的 5%。

So think about that as in the mid-$400 million range and then the remaining items in the mid $300 million range. So that's kind of the path to the updated $700 million to $800 million of free cash flow in next year. So we took this opportunity to update it for this year's CapEx, this year's cash flow consistency and then updating it for 2026's cash flow -- free cash flow expectations.

因此，想像一下這個在 4 億美元左右的範圍內，然後其餘項目在 3 億美元左右的範圍內。因此，這就是明年實現 7 億至 8 億美元自由現金流的途徑。因此，我們藉此機會更新了今年的資本支出、今年的現金流量一致性，然後更新了 2026 年的現金流量——自由現金流預期。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then maybe just one follow-up. In terms of -- you referenced maybe some higher permitting costs, insurance costs, maybe labor around Waco.

知道了。知道了。這非常有幫助。然後可能只需要一個後續行動。就…您提到的許可證費用、保險費用以及韋科週邊的勞動成本可能更高。

Was that something that was sort of inflating over the course of the year? Or were there some aspect of the project where you saw kind of a big step-up in that estimate maybe during the quarter? Just trying to understand what's driving those costs, if it's maybe a bunch of little things or something that changed with the project.

這是不是一年來不斷膨脹的事情？或者，您是否看到該專案的某些方面在本季度內出現了大幅的提升？只是想了解是什麼導致了這些成本的增加，可能是一些小事，或者是專案發生了變化。

Anthony, it's Mike. Yes. Look, it's a couple of things. I appreciate the question. First, labor costs, specifically electricians. And as you can appreciate, we've got about 600 electricians working to finish up the project here as we speak or in the final phases of it. That portion of the labor came in a little higher than what we expected. That's really a function of the fact, as you're well aware, there's a real boom on data centers and other construction that's bit up by the cost of that labor.

安東尼，我是麥克。是的。瞧，有幾件事。我很感謝你提出這個問題。首先是勞動成本，特別是電工。如您所知，我們有大約 600 名電工正在努力完成該項目，或者說，該項目已進入最後階段。這部分勞動力的投入比我們預期的要高一些。這實際上是一個事實，正如您所知，資料中心和其他建築業的真正繁榮受到了勞動力成本的影響。

So we had to deal with that. I think if you take a step back and look at it over a 2.5-year period, we started with a greenfield. And of course, we had the engineering done on certain aspects from Kalamazoo. We built the same machine hall. There were other elements that were different because we did tend to have certain things like the powerhouse, wastewater treatment, those types of things, we had to build.

所以我們必須解決這個問題。我認為，如果你退一步來看 2.5 年的時間，我們是從一片綠地開始的。當然，我們在卡拉馬祖完成了某些方面的工程設計。我們建造了同樣的機房。還有其他元素有所不同，因為我們確實傾向於建造某些東西，例如發電站、廢水處理等類型的東西。

And that comes with what we had initial permits and insurance understanding. And some of that stuff evolved over the course of construction. You try to deal with those as they come in. In some cases, there were some rework that was required on things that we had already done in order to get the final permitting, as I alluded to in my prepared remarks. And all of it was inflationary.

這些都是基於我們最初的許可和保險理解。其中一些東西是在建造過程中逐漸演變的。當這些問題出現時，你要嘗試去處理它們。在某些情況下，為了獲得最終許可，我們已經完成了一些工作，需要對其進行一些返工，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣。所有這些都是通貨膨脹的。

And so ultimately, you kind of put it together, we pushed out the $150 million we talked about today. If you add up where we're over on that project, it's around 20% from our original commitments that we made about 2.5 years ago. And what I'll tell you is that I'm more encouraged than ever around our ability to really deliver on the returns of that project.

所以最終，你把這些加在一起，我們就拿出了今天談到的 1.5 億美元。如果把我們在這個專案上的進展加起來，大約只完成了我們兩年半前所做的最初承諾的 20%。我想告訴你們的是，我比以往任何時候都更相信我們能夠真正實現該專案的回報。

The capabilities are going to be fantastic, both in terms of quality and cost. When you put Kalamazoo and Waco together, the replacement costs of both of those assets are substantially above what we paid for now if someone was replicated. So it really creates a bit of a moat around that business. No one likes a cost overrun.

無論從品質還是成本來看，其性能都將非常出色。如果將卡拉馬祖和韋科加在一起，那麼這兩項資產的重置成本將大大高於我們現在複製這些資產所支付的成本。因此，它確實為該業務創建了一些護城河。沒有人喜歡成本超支。

We take those things seriously. And obviously, we try to deal with them as you've seen us do here by managing other aspects of our business to make sure we deliver our free cash flow. But we had to get the project done. We'll have it done here. It's going to start up on time. And I'm really excited about bringing Waco to life here in the fourth quarter.

我們非常重視這些事情。顯然，我們會嘗試處理這些問題，正如您在這裡看到的那樣，我們透過管理業務的其他方面來確保實現自由現金流。但我們必須完成這個項目。我們會在這裡完成它。它將準時啟動。我真的很高興能在第四季讓韋科煥發活力。

Okay, that, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的，這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Thanks very much. Hi everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. I guess as we look out nearer term in terms of margin and the implied, as we're doing the math, 19% margin or so for the second half of this year. Mike and Steve, can you talk to us about maybe not to the penny, but what some of the building blocks are there that give you confidence that you can get there? And what's sustainable into '26 and beyond? And then I had a follow-on related to the intermediate-term growth outlook for EBITDA.

非常感謝。大家好。早安.謝謝你的詳細資料。我想，當我們從利潤率和隱含的角度看時，正如我們所計算的，今年下半年的利潤率約為 19%。麥克和史蒂夫，你們能否跟我們談談，也許不是具體細節，而是哪些基礎要素讓你們有信心實現目標？那麼，在 26 年及以後，什麼才是永續的呢？然後我對 EBITDA 的中期成長前景進行了後續討論。

Hey, George, it's Steve. I'll take that. And maybe just do it this way, kind of first half, second half, first half EBITDA, $700 million. Midpoint of second half $800 million, the margins, as you described, a couple of components. One, our pricing, while around $50 million negative in the first half will be closer to $25 million in the second half. So that's a $25 million, first half, second half pickup.

嘿，喬治，我是史蒂夫。我會接受的。或許可以這麼算，上半年、下半年、上半年的 EBITDA 都是 7 億美元。下半年中點為 8 億美元，利潤率，正如您所描述的，有幾個組成部分。首先，我們的定價上半年虧損約 5,000 萬美元，而下半年將接近 2,500 萬美元。所以這是上半年 2500 萬美元，下半年的收益。

And then really, the majority of it, probably $60 million is that combination of less planned maintenance downtime. Q2 was very high for planned maintenance and less market-related downtime as we took over 50,000 tons of inventory out of the company in the first half that doesn't need to be repeated in the second half. So two major components to the $100 million price and performance being $25 million and $60 million cumulatively. The remaining $15 million is a cross-section of some other inflation FX items, so relatively modest.

實際上，其中的大部分（大概 6,000 萬美元）都是由於計劃內維護停機時間較少造成的。由於我們在上半年從公司撤出了超過 50,000 噸的庫存，並且不需要在下半年重複這些庫存，因此第二季度的計劃維護和與市場相關的停機時間非常少。因此，1 億美元價格和性能的兩個主要組成部分累計分別為 2,500 萬美元和 6,000 萬美元。剩餘的 1500 萬美元是一些其他通膨外匯項目的橫截面，因此相對較少。

So that's really the first half, second half conversation, and we're very pleased with our inventory reduction efforts through -- from December here through June. There'll be more inventory coming out of the company naturally in the second half of the year with the Middletown closure, but the economic impact of that is relatively modest as we sell aggressively out of inventory.

這是關於上半年和下半年的討論，我們對 12 月到 6 月的庫存削減努力感到非常滿意。隨著米德爾頓工廠的關閉，下半年公司自然會有更多的庫存流出，但由於我們積極銷售庫存，對經濟的影響相對較小。

Okay. Very good. I appreciate that, Steve. Just maybe factually, if you can cover it as part of the answer to the question. I didn't see really the inventory move that much 1Q to 2Q.

好的。非常好。我很感激，史蒂夫。事實上，如果您可以將其作為問題答案的一部分。我並沒有看到第一季到第二季庫存有如此大的變化。

So I'm assuming you're holding some extra as you -- basically, the fleet of machines is changing. You've got Middletown coming out, you've got Waco coming up. I'm assuming that's a little bit of buffer. And then as we think out more to '26 and '27. Obviously, we have the Waco EBITDA pickup.

所以我假設你會保留一些額外的資源——基本上，機器的隊伍正在改變。米德爾頓 (Middletown) 即將出現，韋科 (Waco) 即將出現。我認為這只是一點緩衝。然後，我們會進一步思考 26 年和 27 年的情況。顯然，我們有 Waco EBITDA 回升。

But can you again -- maybe not to the penny, but help us bridge to what you think some of the more important EBITDA pickups will be next year and thereafter? I'm assuming volume is a big one, but if you can give us some additional color to that, that would be great.

但是您能否再次 - 也許不是精確到分毫，但幫助我們了解您認為明年及以後一些更重要的 EBITDA 增長是什麼？我認為音量是一個很大的因素，但如果您能為我們提供一些額外的信息，那就太好了。

Yes, George, I'll start and then Mike can add some color into next year. On the balance sheet, you're absolutely correct. The actual inventory numbers are not down. Our inventory volume down 50,000 tons or roughly 12%, very material. That's very important. It's offset by FX, George. The actual balance sheet in terms of how it gets layered is an FX issue. So volumetrically down 12% on inventory, offset by FX, and I appreciate you raising that because it's important.

是的，喬治，我先開始，然後麥克可以為明年增添一些色彩。在資產負債表上，你完全正確。實際庫存數量並未下降。我們的庫存量下降了5萬噸，大約下降了12%，非常重要。這非常重要。它被 FX 所抵消了，喬治。實際資產負債表如何分層是外匯問題。因此，庫存量下降了 12%，被外匯抵消了，我很感謝你提出這一點，因為這很重要。

As we look to 2026, the algorithm we have for the company, we would expect to be on display in 2026. Importantly, our Waco expectations for 2026 remain at $80 million. And then obviously, our overall performance will hinge upon some levels of modest volume growth. But the $80 million on Waco next year remains our expectation for 2026. I think Mike may add a couple of things around the business.

展望 2026 年，我們預計公司製定的演算法將在 2026 年展示。重要的是，我們對 2026 年 Waco 的預期仍為 8000 萬美元。顯然，我們的整體業績將取決於一定程度的適度銷售成長。但明年對韋科的 8,000 萬美元撥款仍然是我們對 2026 年的預期。我認為麥克可能會在業務方面增加一些內容。

Yes, George, I think, look, the catalyst as Steve outlined in '26 and '27 is bringing Waco to life 80 and 80, as you well know. It's a really good question, your follow-on there around the confidence in our algorithm around low single-digit growth rate after a disappointing 2024 to be fair. And a first half of 2025 that while we played to a draw. And we've driven our innovation. You see that.

是的，喬治，我認為，正如史蒂夫在 26 年和 27 年所概述的那樣，催化劑將在 80 年代和 80 年代讓韋科煥發生機，正如你所知。這是一個非常好的問題，公平地說，在經歷了令人失望的 2024 年後，您對我們的演算法的信心如何，以及是否能夠實現低個位數成長率。到 2025 年上半年，我們將打成平手。我們不斷推動創新。你看到了。

We had $61 million of innovation this quarter. It was eaten up by the fact that our customers' volumes continue to go down. We're in a highly unusual time. I mean food prices are very high and consumers are struggling both here and in Europe. And ultimately, the macro uncertainty is something that we have to deal with, particularly as consumer confidence declines.

本季我們的創新投入為 6,100 萬美元。由於我們客戶的數量持續下降，這一損失被抵消了。我們正處於一個極不尋常的時期。我的意思是食品價格非常高，無論是在這裡還是在歐洲，消費者都在苦苦掙扎。最終，我們必須應對宏觀不確定性，特別是在消費者信心下降的情況下。

So as we look out, into '26 and '27. We know our customers are working various strategies to continue to deal with this. Of course, their stocks aren't working either when their volumes go down. You've seen a fair amount of discussion by customers. Some are buying one another, some are breaking themselves up.

因此，當我們展望 26 年和 27 年時。我們知道我們的客戶正在採取各種策略來繼續應對這個問題。當然，當交易量下降時，他們的庫存也不會發揮作用。您已經看到客戶進行了相當多的討論。一些公司正在相互收購，一些公司則在自我拆分。

Others are changing leadership. So there's a fair amount of things that are happening as they look to kind of deal with those things. And we believe, over time, that over the medium term for sure that, that stuff gets worked out. It needs to get worked out. And we're there to help.

其他國家的領導層正在改變。因此，當他們試圖處理這些問題時，發生了相當多的事情。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，從中期來看，這些問題肯定會得到解決。這個問題需要解決。我們會盡力提供協助。

We're going to help our customers work through those formulation changes and how they work on the promotional activity. But a big part of our algorithm is getting to that low single-digit growth. And our Vision 2030, as you know, as demonstrated here, it's not linear, but we believe that's still the right model for us over time. That's how we're thinking about it.

我們將幫助我們的客戶解決這些配方變化以及他們如何進行促銷活動。但我們的演算法很大一部分是實現低個位數成長。如您所知，我們的 2030 願景並不是線性的，但我們相信，從長遠來看，這仍然是適合我們的正確模式。我們就是這樣想的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much. I'll turn it over.

非常感謝。我把它翻過來。

[Philip Ng], Jefferies.

[Philip Ng]，傑富瑞。

Steve, this is actually John on for Phil. I appreciate all the details here. I wanted to actually look a little further out. The 2027 guide for free cash flow, you guys maintained $900 million to $1 billion implies at the midpoint like a plus $200 million type of improvement. I know you said volumes are expected to recover to more normalized levels, but it just seems like a big jump. Can you just help us bridge that expectation out in 2027 and beyond?

史蒂夫，這實際上是菲爾的約翰。我感謝這裡的所有細節。我實際上想看得更遠一些。2027 年的自由現金流指南，你們維持了 9 億美元到 10 億美元的中點，這意味著 2 億美元的改進。我知道您說過交易量有望恢復到更正常的水平，但這似乎只是一個巨大的飛躍。您能幫助我們在 2027 年及以後實現這項期望嗎？

Yes, John, it's Steve. What we really did with our long-term free cash flow expectations is we dialed in 2026 a bit, as we just described a couple of moments ago, $700 million to $800 million. And as Mike just described, as our algorithm for low, mid- and high single-digit sales, EBITDA and EPS growth plays itself out over the next several years, along with a second $80 million of EBITDA improvement in 2027 from Waco gives us the opportunity for cash flows to continue to grow from the $700 million to $800 million range into that $900 million-plus range towards the $1 billion that we originally targeted.

是的，約翰，我是史蒂夫。我們對長期自由現金流的預期實際上是將 2026 年稍微調高了一些，正如我們剛才所描述的那樣，為 7 億到 8 億美元。正如 Mike 剛才所描述的，隨著我們針對低、中、高個位數銷售額、EBITDA 和 EPS 增長的演算法在未來幾年內逐漸顯現，再加上 2027 年 Waco 帶來的第二次 8000 萬美元的 EBITDA 增長，我們有機會使現金流繼續增長，從 7 億美元到 8 億美元，朝著我們最初的目標邁進 10 億美元，朝著我們最初的目標邁進 10 億美元，朝著我們最初的目標邁進 190 億美元，朝著我們最初的目標邁進 10 億美元，朝著我們最初的目標邁進 10 億美元，朝著我們最初的目標邁進 10 億美元，朝著我們最初的目標邁進 10 億美元，朝著我們最初的目標邁進 10 億美元。

And so as Mike said, it's not linear. We've worked through some consumer and inflation realities here in '24, '25, but our confidence in the long-term algorithm for the company remains intact and it's not moving off of our 2027 and beyond free cash flow expectations.

正如麥克所說，它不是線性的。我們在 2024 年和 2025 年已經解決了一些消費者和通貨膨脹的現實問題，但我們對公司長期演算法的信心依然不變，它不會偏離我們對 2027 年及以後自由現金流的預期。

Okay. And just to kind of follow up on that a little bit. Mike, I know you just said you're still expecting the $160 million from Waco. But does volume need to recover to get that full $160 million over the next couple of years? Or is this mostly coming from lower costs and still flat volumes into some of the outlook at least?

好的。只是為了稍微跟進一下這一點。麥克，我知道你剛才說你仍然期待韋科提供 1.6 億美元。但是，未來幾年內交易量是否需要恢復才能達到 1.6 億美元？或者這主要是因為成本較低且至少在某些前景中銷售仍然持平？

Yes. There's a portion of it, John, that obviously comes from shutting down our smaller, higher cost facilities as you've seen us do with Middletown. Of course, East Angus falls in that bucket as well. I'll remind you, there's also been two other mills for a total of 370,000 tons that have come out in the last 90 days, Middletown being part of that and two additional mills on top of that. So there is probably growth around 200,000 tons as you kind of look in the outlying years, '27 and '28 as we ramp that facility up.

是的。約翰，其中一部分顯然來自於關閉我們規模較小、成本較高的設施，正如你所看到我們對米德爾頓所做的那樣。當然，東安格斯也屬於這一類。我要提醒您，過去 90 天內還有另外兩家工廠生產了總計 37 萬噸的鋼材，其中米德爾頓是其中的一部分，此外還有另外兩家工廠。因此，隨著我們擴大該設施，在 2027 年和 2028 年這幾年，產量可能會增加 20 萬噸左右。

And we expect to grow as we just talked about, and we're going to need that paperboard in order to -- that low-cost, high-quality paperboard that we'll be making in order to fund that growth and take care of customers. So the answer is yes, there's a portion of it that's fixed, just a reduction and then a portion of it that's growth. But our confidence level in the 80 and 80 is high, and that's why we ask you to model it that way.

正如我們剛才所說，我們預計業務將會成長，我們需要生產這種低成本、高品質的紙板，以資助業務成長並滿足客戶的需求。所以答案是肯定的，其中一部分是固定的，只是減少了，然後一部分是成長的。但是我們對 80 和 80 的信心水平很高，這就是我們要求您以這種方式進行建模的原因。

Appreciate the details. I'll turn it over.

欣賞細節。我把它翻過來。

Gabrial Hajde, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的加布里埃爾·哈吉德 (Gabrial Hajde)。

Mike, Steve, Mark, good morning. Point of clarification on something you said, Steve, on, I guess, I'll call it under absorbed fixed overhead. You talked about reducing inventories by $50,000 in the quarter, but it cost you $60 million, which implies sort of $1,100 or so a ton of under absorbed fixed overhead. It seems like a big number. Is there anything else going on there that we should be mindful of when we think about that?

麥克、史蒂夫、馬克，早安。史蒂夫，我想澄清一下你所說的一些事情，我會稱它為吸收固定間接費用。您談到本季減少 50,000 美元的庫存，但成本卻達到 6,000 萬美元，這意味著大約 1,100 美元左右的未吸收固定間接費用。這看起來是一個很大的數字。當我們思考這個問題時，還有哪些事情需要我們注意？

Yes, Gabe, it's Steve. As a reminder, Q2 is our largest planned maintenance downtime quarter. So when you're doing a first half. Second half, we pick up $20 million or $30 million of the $60 million just from less planned maintenance downtime. The remainder is from the actions that we took to take the 50,000 tons out.

是的，加布，我是史蒂夫。提醒一下，第二季是我們計劃維護停機時間最長的季度。所以當你做上半場的時候。下半年，我們僅從減少的計劃維護停機時間中就獲得了 6000 萬美元中的 2000 萬或 3000 萬美元。其餘部分來自我們為取出 50,000 噸而採取的行動。

So it is not $60 million as I think you're potentially implying. It's a combination of less planned maintenance downtime first half, second half and less market-related to drive out inventory first half to second half. So thanks for raising that. I wouldn't want that to be confusing.

所以我認為它並不是您可能暗示的 6000 萬美元。這是由於上半年和下半年計劃內維護停機時間較少以及上半年和下半年市場相關庫存減少所致。感謝您提出這個問題。我不希望這造成混淆。

Okay, no, thank you. Maybe two quick follow-ups. One, the maintenance this year, is that a relatively normalized number when you kind of look out in '26, '27? And then related -- separately, I should say, on the beverage end market, I know it's difficult to understand exactly what your customers are holding in terms of inventory, but they did promote pretty heavily in the first half. Is it your view that they're sitting on comfortable levels of inventory, maybe a little less than the need or more than they need as they go into the back half?

好的，不用了，謝謝。或許還有兩個快速的後續行動。首先，從 26 年和 27 年的情況來看，今年的維護量是否是相對正常的數字？然後相關的——另外，我應該說，在飲料終端市場，我知道很難確切了解你的客戶持有的庫存，但他們在上半年確實大力推廣。您是否認為，他們的庫存水準比較舒適，進入下半年後，庫存水準可能略低於需求，也可能略高於需求？

Thank you and good luck.

謝謝，祝你好運。

Yes, Gabe, I'll take the first one, and Mike can discuss the second. We don't expect any up substance planned maintenance downtime differences '25 to '26. So that will play itself out relatively normalized. Obviously, we do not expect to repeat the market-related inventory correction downtime that we took if you look at it on a year-over-year basis.

是的，Gabe，我選擇第一個，Mike 可以討論第二個。我們預計 2025 年至 2026 年期間計劃維護停機時間不會有任何實質差異。因此，這將相對正常化。顯然，如果從同比角度來看，我們預計不會重複與市場相關的庫存調整停擺。

In regards to the beverage season, Gabe, we actually have seen a very solid beverage season, both in Europe and in North America. And North America is a little bit a function of the mix of customers that we're serving. For us, it makes us -- our volume obviously quite good this year.

關於飲料季，加布，我們實際上已經看到歐洲和北美的飲料季非常強勁。北美市場在某種程度上取決於我們所服務的客戶組合。對我們來說，這讓我們今年的銷售顯然相當不錯。

Relative to what customers are holding in warehouses in the retail, we don't have a lot of insight into that. I can tell you we're busy. We're steady. The demand is strong. We've gotten no indications from them that it's going to back off before the normal occurrence, which as you know, in the Northern Hemisphere is from -- basically from Memorial Day to Labor Day.

相對於客戶在零售倉庫中持有的商品，我們對此沒有太多的了解。我可以告訴你我們很忙。我們很穩定。需求強勁。我們沒有從他們那裡得到任何跡象表明它會在正常發生之前消退，正如你所知，在北半球，正常發生時間基本上是從陣亡將士紀念日至勞動節。

Matt Roberts, Raymond James.

馬特羅伯茲、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Hey, Mike, Steve Mark, good morning. Just on the second half volumes, the first half was up 1% and so flat implies second half down slightly. So you have a slightly harder comp. But when you spoke in mid-June, I believe you said the quarter -- 2Q was going to be at flat, came in a bit better than that. So maybe some additional color on what you saw exiting June and what you've seen to date here in July?

嘿，麥克、史蒂夫馬克，早安。僅就下半年的交易量而言，上半年成長了 1%，因此持平意味著下半年略有下降。所以你的比賽難度稍微大一點。但當您在六月中旬發表演說時，我相信您說過第二季的業績將持平，比那好一些。那麼，您是否可以對 6 月份的情況以及 7 月份迄今為止的情況進行一些補充？

Yes. So I'll take that one, Matt. I think from that standpoint, it's a pretty small number. Europe was up 2% in our North American business. Our Americas business was basically flat in the quarter. That was up from minus 1% in Q1. So we were encouraged to see that. July started off consistent with the guide that we put out. We see beverages is solid and food is a bit mixed, as Steve talked about. Some categories are up, some are down.

是的。所以我會選擇這個，馬特。我認為從這個角度來看，這是一個相當小的數字。我們的北美業務中歐洲業務成長了 2%。本季我們的美洲業務基本持平。這比第一季的負 1% 有所上升。所以我們很高興看到這一點。七月份的開始與我們發布的指南一致。我們看到飲料很紮實，但食物有點混雜，正如史蒂夫所說的那樣。有些類別上升，有些類別下降。

I would characterize it just there's still a lot of uncertainty. I mean our customers are struggling. You see their reports, and there'll be a number of them that release over the next 1.5 weeks or so. We expect to see volumes that are down year-on-year. We're outperforming that with what we're doing by playing to a draw, which is really what we have to do.

我認為仍然存在很多不確定性。我的意思是我們的客戶正在苦苦掙扎。您可以看到他們的報告，其中許多報告將在接下來的 1.5 週左右發布。我們預計交易量將年減。我們透過打平手來超越這一點，這確實是我們必須做的。

Our innovation, as I mentioned earlier to a previous question, we're on track for our 2% this year. We're encouraged by that. But relative to (inaudible), completely call the second half of this year. It's very difficult for us to do that right now because we don't have a ton of insight from customers. They're telling us that they're going to promote.

正如我之前在回答問題時提到的那樣，我們的創新是，我們今年的成長率有望達到 2%。我們對此感到鼓舞。但相對於（聽不清楚），完全稱得上是今年下半年。目前我們很難做到這一點，因為我們沒有從客戶那裡獲得大量見解。他們告訴我們他們要進行促銷。

They told us that last year. We're being very cautious, as you know, because we built inventory last year to accommodate that promotional activity, and then we had to burn it off in the first six months of this year. So we're not doing that. We're there and ready to help them with anything that they need in regards to reformulation. That's always an opportunity for us.

他們去年就告訴我們這一點。如你所知，我們非常謹慎，因為我們去年建立了庫存以適應促銷活動，然後我們必須在今年前六個月將其消耗掉。所以我們不會這麼做。我們隨時準備為他們提供與重新配方相關的任何幫助。這對我們來說始終是一個機會。

So we'll continue to do that. We've got a wide array of portfolio of innovation ideas that will help us help them really resonate with the end-use consumer. So that's where our focus is. But I just want to underline that word again, uncertainty here in the second half. And so we're going to be a little cautious in terms of how we're trying to call volumes at a very precise level.

因此我們會繼續這樣做。我們擁有廣泛的創新理念，這些理念將幫助我們真正引起最終消費者的共鳴。這就是我們的重點。但我只想再次強調這個詞，下半場的不確定性。因此，我們在嘗試以非常精確的水平調用交易量時會更加謹慎。

Understand. Appreciate that color. And maybe if I could ask on price. When I think about the price changes, so you noted beverage demand has remained strong, and I believe we lapped the price decrease in February '24. Open market exposure is now de minimis.

理解。欣賞那種顏色。也許我可以問價格。當我考慮價格變化時，您會注意到飲料需求仍然強勁，我相信我們在 24 年 2 月就已經超過了價格下降的幅度。公開市場風險敞口目前已降至最低。

But I think, Steve, I think you said price in the second half is down $25 million. What do you need to see to get that to flat? Or given tightness in certain substrates, would another run at a list price increase be warranted? And then just a point of clarification. Steve, I think you said that lower cash taxes in '25 was a $50 million benefit from the Big Beautiful bill.

但史蒂夫，我認為你說下半年的價格下降了 2500 萬美元。你需要看到什麼才能讓它變平？或者考慮到某些基材的緊俏，是否有必要再提高標價？然後只是澄清一點。史蒂夫，我想你說過，25 年降低現金稅是《大美麗法案》帶來的 5,000 萬美元收益。

Is there any lift in 2026 that you've quantified? I understand there certainly could be some nuances in when projects are put in place and what qualifies. So if you could just help me understand that a little bit better.

您認為 2026 年會有什麼成長嗎？我理解在專案實施時間和資格條件方面肯定會存在一些細微差別。所以如果你能幫助我更好地理解這一點的話。

Thank you all for taking the questions.

感謝大家回答問題。

Matt, thanks. There's a couple of there. I'm going to answer the first one in regards to pricing. Of course, you can appreciate, I can't talk about forward pricing options or optionality and things that we would do or wouldn't do. But I can talk about current market conditions. If you look at recycled paperboard and unbleached paperboard, they've been a really good balance for the past several years. Pricing has been pretty stable, and that's certainly in contrast to bleached paperboard.

馬特，謝謝。那裡有幾對。我將回答第一個有關定價的問題。當然，您可以理解，我不能談論遠期定價選擇權或可選性以及我們會做或不會做的事情。但我可以談談當前的市場狀況。如果你觀察一下再生紙板和未漂白紙板，你會發現它們在過去幾年中一直保持著良好的平衡。價格一直相當穩定，這與漂白紙板形成了鮮明對比。

And we've taken some actions to address the inventories, as you've heard Steve talk about. We took out 50,000 tons here in our second quarter. We're going to continue to be very focused on managing our supply and demand, making sure we have the paperboard to take care of customers, but no more than we need, very disciplined in that regard.

正如史蒂夫所說，我們已經採取了一些措施來解決庫存問題。我們第二季度從這裡提取了 50,000 噸。我們將繼續高度重視供應和需求的管理，確保我們有足夠的紙板來滿足客戶的需求，但不會超過我們的需要，在這方面我們會非常自律。

And I've already mentioned the 370,000 tons that have come out of the CRB and the unbleached paperboard side. I think if you look at the AFPA data, the American Forest and Paper Association data that I'm sure you did that came out last Friday, there's some interesting things to take away there. I mean if you look at the recycled and the unbleached, those are the two grades where we're a major player.

我已經提到了來自 CRB 和未漂白紙板方面的 370,000 噸。我認為，如果你看一下 AFPA 數據，即美國森林與造紙協會上週五發布的數據（我相信你已經看過了），你會發現一些有趣的事情。我的意思是，如果你看一下再生紙和未漂白紙，你會發現我們在這兩個等級上佔據主要地位。

If you think about where we're going to be post Waco, 80% of our production is going to be in those two grades of paper. We're a minor player on the bleached side. Primarily, we focus on cup, as you know, and you mentioned that in your question. Production was down 3% in the second quarter, owing to some of those shutdowns that we talked about, but shipments were up 1%.

如果你想像一下韋科慘案之後我們的發展，你會發現我們 80% 的產量都會是這兩種等級的紙張。在漂白方面，我們只是個小角色。首先，我們關注的是杯子，正如您所知，您在問題中提到了這一點。由於我們談到的一些停工，第二季產量下降了 3%，但出貨量卻增加了 1%。

Year-to-date, production was down 2.5%, shipments were down 1%. So inventory is down 20% in the quarter, which is a good thing and 30% year-to-date, and backlogs are up. That's a healthy operating environment for both those grades. And that really contrasts to what's going on in bleached paperboard, where we are a minor player. If you look at that same data, production was up 5% in the second quarter.

年初至今，產量下降了 2.5%，出貨量下降了 1%。因此，本季庫存下降了 20%，這是一件好事，今年迄今庫存下降了 30%，積壓訂單增加。對於這兩個等級來說，這是一個健康的營運環境。這與漂白紙板的現狀形成了鮮明對比，我們在漂白紙板領域只是個小角色。如果你查看相同的數據，你會發現第二季的產量增加了 5%。

Shipments fell 5%. Year-to-date, production is up 2%, shipments down 2.5%. So inventories are up 8% in the quarter and 20% year-over-year, which means backlogs are down. So it's really kind of a tale of two cities there relative to what the grades are doing. And certainly, we're not immune to the impact of that paperboard coming online, the supply and demand dynamic that I'm talking about with bleach versus the two grades that we are well invested in.

出貨量下降了5%。年初至今，產量增加了 2%，出貨量下降了 2.5%。因此，本季庫存增加了 8%，年增了 20%，這意味著積壓訂單減少了。因此，就成績的進展而言，這實際上就像是兩個城市的故事。當然，我們也無法免受紙板上線的影響，我所說的漂白劑的供需動態與我們投入大量資金的兩個等級的漂白劑的供需動態有關。

But Graphic’s inventories on SBS were actually, I can tell you, we're actually down in the quarter. So we're pleased with that. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of context in terms of how we're thinking about the overall market health, what we're seeing, what we're doing to manage our order books. I'll tell you that our order books continue to build on the grades that we're talking about, and they did over the quarter, and they have in July so far.

但我可以告訴你，Graphic 在 SBS 上的庫存實際上在本季有所下降。所以我們對此感到高興。所以希望這能讓您了解我們如何看待整體市場健康狀況、我們看到了什麼以及我們為管理訂單做了什麼。我會告訴你，我們的訂單量繼續按照我們談論的等級增加，並且在本季度一直如此，而且截至 7 月也是如此。

And Matt, to your second question, embedded in the $700 million to $800 million of free cash flow in 2026, we do expect to see some positive benefits from the tax legislation. So as I mentioned, that cumulative impact of interest cash taxes, working capital, we kind of have in the mid-$300 million range next year, and that will have some benefits from the tax legislation as well.

馬特，關於你的第二個問題，我們確實預計稅收立法將在 2026 年 7 億至 8 億美元的自由現金流中帶來一些積極的好處。正如我所提到的，利息現金稅、營運資本的累積影響明年將達到 3 億美元左右，而稅收立法也會為我們帶來一些好處。

So our line of sight to cash flow next year is actually quite high. And that's why that conviction around the $700 million to $800 million and then obviously, the ability to deploy that for shareholder value creation and the inflection of the cash flow into a very material level, which gives us an outstanding optionality for share repurchase activity, debt reduction. That inflection is happening and our confidence in that is extremely high. And there will be some benefits from the tax legislation embedded in that.

因此，我們對明年現金流的預期其實相當高。這就是為什麼我們堅信要投資 7 億到 8 億美元，而且顯然有能力將其用於創造股東價值，並將現金流轉化為非常實質性的水平，這為我們提供了股票回購活動和債務削減的出色選擇。這種轉變正在發生，我們對此充滿信心。其中所包含的稅收立法將會帶來一些好處。

Thank you all very much.

非常感謝大家。

Ghansham Panjabi, Baird.

甘沙姆·潘賈比，貝爾德。

Thank you. Good morning, guys. Mike, going back to your comments on consumer affordability, which has been an issue for basically three years at this point. What, if anything, is different as it relates to how your customer strategy has changed to counter this elongated period of volume weakness? And I'm just kind of going back to your comment on promotional activity, et cetera. Is that something that's incremental? Or is it just sort of seasonal?

謝謝。大家早安。麥克，回到你對消費者負擔能力的評論，這基本上已經變成一個三年的問題了。為了應對這長期的交易量疲軟，您的客戶策略有何變化（如果有的話）？我只是想回顧一下你關於促銷活動等的評論。這是漸進的事情嗎？或者這只是季節性的？

Ghansham, I wish I had a better, more intelligent answer for that question to share with you. I mean I think the biggest challenge, this is going on longer than I've historically seen. Our customers have struggled from time-to-time over my career, and then they retool and they rebound. I think there's changing consumer preferences that are certainly at play. You've got things like GLP-1 that are positives and negatives that are out there in the marketplace.

甘沙姆，我希望我能對這個問題給出一個更好、更明智的答案，與你分享。我的意思是，我認為最大的挑戰是，這件事持續的時間比我歷史上見過的任何時候都要長。在我的職業生涯中，我們的客戶不時會遇到困難，但他們會重新調整並恢復元氣。我認為消費者偏好的改變肯定起了作用。市場上存在諸如 GLP-1 之類的產品，既有優點也有缺點。

The (inaudible) piece of this hits our customers at a very unopportunistic time. They're already struggling with consumer affordability. Now they need to reformulate and reformulation almost always means it's more expensive. It does create an opportunity for us for sure, for a new package sale or a different package sale. So we -- as I mentioned earlier, we always want to help them through that whole process.

（聽不清楚）這一部分在一個非常不利的時機對我們的客戶造成了打擊。他們已經在為消費者的承受能力而苦苦掙扎。現在他們需要重新配製，而重新配製幾乎總是意味著價格更高。它確實為我們創造了一個機會，無論是新的套餐銷售還是不同的套餐銷售。因此，正如我之前提到的，我們始終希望幫助他們完成整個過程。

I guess, look, as I indicated, I think, in my response to George, one of the things that we are encouraged about is we see more urgency on behalf of our customers to look at different things, whether they're buying one another, whether they're splitting themselves up or they're making managerial changes.

我想，正如我在回覆喬治時所指出的，讓我們感到鼓舞的事情之一是，我們看到客戶更加迫切地需要考慮不同的事情，無論他們是相互購買，還是拆分自己，還是進行管理變革。

These are things that are done to initiate change and to stimulate growth. And so that's what our belief is right now. And as I sit here today, that's why I still have to deal with the uncertainty in the second half because I want to believe those things all in benefit. But it's been longer than I would have probably than what we've experienced in the past, perhaps I should say it that way.

這些都是為了發起改變和刺激成長而採取的行動。這就是我們現在的信念。而今天當我坐在這裡，這就是為什麼我仍然需要應對下半年的不確定性，因為我想相信這些事情都是有益的。但這可能比我們過去經歷的時間還要長，也許我應該這樣說。

Okay. Fair enough. And then maybe a question for Steve on the revised 2026 free cash flow, which obviously is lower implied EBITDA. How does that change your view as it relates to prioritizing share repurchases versus debt paydown? I think you ended 2Q at 3.7 times net debt to EBITDA.

好的。很公平。然後也許我想問史蒂夫關於修訂後的 2026 年自由現金流的問題，這顯然是較低的隱含 EBITDA。在優先考慮股票回購還是債務償還方面，這如何改變您的觀點？我認為你們第二季的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率是 3.7 倍。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes. Thanks, Ghansham. Our confidence in 3.5 times levered at the end of this year is high given the cash flows that we talked about earlier. We did begin the share repurchase activity. And given what we believe is the long-term value of the enterprise, you should expect to see us to apply the vast majority of our free cash flow to share repurchase, keeping in mind that the balance sheet needs to stay in a reasonable place, but being in that 3.5 times levered range, while we see incredible value long term relative to the value of the enterprise, you'll see us continue to lean towards share repurchase certainly into that 2026 time horizon, assuming that the value of the company continues to be as compelling as it is today.

是的。謝謝，Ghansham。考慮到我們之前談到的現金流，我們對今年年底 3.5 倍槓桿率的信心很高。我們確實開始了股票回購活動。鑑於我們所認為的企業的長期價值，您應該會看到我們將絕大部分自由現金流用於股票回購，同時牢記資產負債表需要保持在合理水平，但在 3.5 倍槓桿範圍內，雖然我們看到相對於企業價值而言的長期不可思議的價值，但您會看到我們繼續傾向於股票回購，當然是 2026 年的時間範圍內，假設公司繼續具有吸引力的價值。

And you saw us begin that process here in 2025. But I think right now, our lean would be towards the share repurchase with that very substantial cash flow. If you take the midpoint of that $700 million to $800 million, take the dividend out of it, we've got $600-plus million of free cash flow that we can apply to that -- to those activities.

你們看到我們在 2025 年就已經開始這個過程。但我認為現在我們傾向於利用非常可觀的現金流進行股票回購。如果取 7 億到 8 億美元的中間值，扣除股息，我們就有 6 億多美元的自由現金流可以用於這些活動。

And certainly, I think you're seeing us lean in one direction right now. Obviously, we'll monitor that relative to debt and debt levels and debt affordability, but we have nothing coming due of substance, and we're borrowing money in the mid-4s currently, 4% range. And so we've obviously got a good outcome relative to the value and the cost of our debt.

當然，我認為您現在看到我們傾向於一個方向。顯然，我們會監控與債務、債務水準和債務承受能力相關的情況，但我們沒有任何實質的債務到期，我們目前的借款利率在 4% 左右。因此，相對於我們的債務價值和成本，我們顯然取得了良好的結果。

Perfect thank you.

非常感謝。

Lewis Merrick, BNP Paribas Exane.

法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Lewis Merrick。

Morning, Mike. Morning, Steve. Thank you for taking my questions. Just one from me. I'd just like to get your thoughts on the current competitive environment. So when you're going after new tenders and bids for new business for your packaging sales, are you noticing any changes in the competitive dynamics out there in the market, perhaps around levels of price discipline and whatnot? Thank you and good luck with Q3

早上好，麥克。早安，史蒂夫。感謝您回答我的問題。我只有一個。我只是想了解一下您對當前競爭環境的看法。因此，當您為包裝銷售尋求新業務的招標和投標時，您是否注意到市場競爭動態發生了任何變化，也許是圍繞價格紀律水平等等？謝謝，祝第三季好運

Yes, Lewis, it's Mike. I think I'll go back to a little bit around -- as I talk to market conditions there, I mean, what I'm sure you took away from my comments is that our solid bleached market here in North America is oversupplied as demonstrated by the data, the AF and PA data that I kind of ran through, so I won't do that again. When you have a situation like that, it creates a competitive environment.

是的，路易斯，我是麥克。我想我會稍微回顧一下——當我談論那裡的市場狀況時，我的意思是，我相信您從我的評論中了解到，正如數據、AF 和 PA 數據所顯示的那樣，我們在北美的固體漂白市場供應過剩，所以我不會再這樣做了。當你遇到這種情況時，就會形成一種競爭環境。

That's not new for us. We've got the ability to deal with those situations as demonstrated by the fact that we've outperformed our customers in the overall market. But it's certainly something that is on our radar screen. We're watching that. On the SBS side, a competitor added a big chunk of production or capacity into the market, and they're bringing that online as we speak. By way of reminder, again, we're a small player in that market. But nonetheless, that's still something that's got to be absorbed.

這對我們來說並不新鮮。我們有能力應對這些情況，事實證明我們在整個市場上的表現優於我們的客戶。但這確實是我們關注的焦點。我們正在關注此事。在 SBS 方面，競爭對手向市場增加了大量生產或產能，正如我們所說，他們正在將其上線。再次提醒一下，我們在這個市場上只是一個小角色。但儘管如此，這仍然是需要吸收的東西。

And ultimately, we're encouraged by the fact there's new leadership at many of the big SBS producers and also assuming they're going to want to generate returns for their ownership structures, and that will drive decision-making that ultimately deals with that. We've seen this before. It happens, and there are cycles here that we've got to work through.

最終，我們對許多大型 SBS 製作公司的新領導層感到鼓舞，並認為他們希望為其所有權結構創造回報，這將推動最終處理該問題的決策。我們以前見過這種情況。這種事確實會發生，我們必須克服其中的循環。

But in the case of Graphic, given our size and our focus on integrated cup and a small position on coated bleached that's largely 100% integrated, we'll be sitting on the sidelines watching that play out like you will over the next period of time here. So that's a little bit how we're seeing this market.

但就 Graphic 而言，考慮到我們的規模以及我們對集成杯的關注，以及對基本上 100% 集成的塗層漂白的少量投入，我們將坐在場邊觀察接下來一段時間的走勢，就像您一樣。這就是我們對這個市場的看法。

I'd say Europe is similar. Our innovation is really hitting home in Europe disproportionately. We continue to see opportunities for innovation and in some cases, some share gain there, too. So ultimately, it's a competitive market.

我想說歐洲也類似。我們的創新確實在歐洲產生了巨大影響。我們繼續看到創新的機會，在某些情況下，有些股票也從中獲益。所以最終，這是一個競爭激烈的市場。

Thank you very much for that. I'll send it over.

非常感謝。我會把它發過來。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

馬克‧溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub)，海港研究夥伴。

Steve, first of all, I know you said $700 million to $800 million on free cash flow for next year. I'm sorry, could you just repeat again what you said for like CapEx and other? Was that $750 million? Or what was the number you gave for that?

史蒂夫，首先，我知道你說過明年的自由現金流將達到 7 億到 8 億美元。抱歉，能否再重複一下關於資本支出和其他內容？那是 7.5 億美元嗎？或者您給的數字是多少？

Yes, Mark, let me repeat it. The cash in total in 2026 required to, in essence, run the company after EBITDA, CapEx, interest, working capital, pension, cash taxes, we would expect to be between $750 million and $850 million. If you break it into two components, CapEx would be roughly $450 million or 5% of sales and all the other items would accumulate up into the mid $300 million, $350 million. try not to provide extreme guidance here. But since you asked, it's like those are the components of why we have confidence in the $700 million to $800 million of free cash flow next year.

是的，馬克，讓我重複一遍。我們預計，在扣除 EBITDA、資本支出、利息、營運資金、退休金和現金稅後，2026 年營運公司所需的現金總額將在 7.5 億美元至 8.5 億美元之間。如果將其分為兩個部分，資本支出約為 4.5 億美元或銷售額的 5%，而所有其他項目將累積到 3 億美元到 3.5 億美元之間。盡量不要在這裡提供極端的指導。但既然你問了，這些就是我們對明年 7 億至 8 億美元自由現金流充滿信心的原因。

Perfect. And I think there may be a little bit of confusion out there. So -- and then if we think about EBITDA, you want to add interest expense back to that, correct, just structurally. And again, not trying to -- recognizing it's early for there to be a specific forecast.

完美的。我認為那裡可能會有一點混亂。所以 — — 如果我們考慮 EBITDA，你會想把利息費用加回其中，正確，只是結構上。再說一次，不要試圖──承認現在做出具體的預測還為時過早。

But for folks who are trying to work out what EBITDA is, you would then add your $700 million to $800 million to your $750 million to $850 million and then you would add cash interest expense. Just want to clarify that because I think there may be a little confusion.

但對於那些想要弄清楚 EBITDA 的人來說，你需要將 7 億到 8 億美元添加到 7.5 億到 8.5 億美元中，然後再添加現金利息費用。我只是想澄清一下，因為我認為可能會有一點混淆。

No, I don't think you have that right at all, Mark. Let me just do it again. The walk to $700 million to $800 million of free cash flow begins with $1.5 billion of EBITDA this year growing next year. Okay? EBITDA grows next year.

不，馬克，我根本不認為你有這個權利。讓我再做一次。邁向 7 億至 8 億美元自由現金流的步伐始於今年 15 億美元的 EBITDA，明年將成長。好的？明年 EBITDA 將會成長。

It's going to grow next year, driven by Waco and driven by the improvements in the business. When you have a growing EBITDA next year and then apply $750 million to $850 million of other cash-related items below EBITDA, you'll get to a free cash flow range of $700 million to $800 million.

在韋科事件和業務改善的推動下，明年它將會成長。如果你明年的 EBITDA 不斷成長，然後在 EBITDA 之下應用 7.5 億到 8.5 億美元的其他現金相關項目，你將獲得 7 億到 8 億美元的自由現金流範圍。

Okay. I think we're talking about different things here, Steve. I'll clarify with you after. But -- so just separately, on -- now that we have a little bit more visibility on tariffs perhaps, can we just get some updated thoughts on any implications?

好的。我認為我們在這裡談論的是不同的事情，史蒂夫。我稍後會向你澄清。但是——所以單獨來看——現在我們對關稅有了更多的了解，我們能否就其影響獲得一些最新的看法？

Mark, it's Mike. So look, the new 15% tariff level is a modest net positive for Graphic Packaging. A couple of things that I'd call out. The first one being, as you know, we export more than 200,000 tons to ourselves in Europe. We don't sell our paperboard in Europe, but we export it to our own converting operations.

馬克，我是麥克。因此，新的 15% 關稅水準對於圖形包裝來說是一個適度的淨利好。我要指出幾件事。首先，如你所知，我們向歐洲出口了超過 20 萬噸。我們不在歐洲銷售紙板，但我們將其出口到我們自己的加工業務。

And this new trade agreement imposes no new cost or limitations on our ability to service our European operations. So we're excited about that. That's a very good outcome for us. The other thing that it does is there's a big focus on reducing what I'll call non-tariff trade barriers between the US and Europe, and that's also good news for us, principally around EUDR, which is the EU Deforestation Regulation.

這項新的貿易協定不會對我們服務歐洲業務的能力產生任何新的成本或限制。所以我們對此感到很興奮。這對我們來說是一個非常好的結果。它所做的另一件事是專注於減少美國和歐洲之間的非關稅貿易壁壘，這對我們來說也是個好消息，主要是圍繞 EUDR，即歐盟森林砍伐條例。

which was looking to be very costly. You may recall, we talked about this in the past that we had a geo position back to where the fiber was harvested within a couple of acres and very expensive to comply with that and without a real clear net benefit defined, so we're encouraged about that.

這看起來成本非常高。您可能還記得，我們過去曾討論過這個問題，我們有一個地理位置，可以追溯到幾英畝範圍內收穫纖維的地方，遵守這一點的成本非常高，而且沒有定義真正明確的淨收益，所以我們對此感到鼓舞。

The other piece you may want to talk about, and I'll just go there here is, the (inaudible) imports have received a fair amount of press over the last couple of years. By way of reminder, that's roughly 500,000 tons on a 10 million ton market, so call it, 5% in total. And those are going to be -- our understanding at least is those are going to be under the new 15% tariff to be imported into the US

您可能想談的另一點，我在這裡就講到這裡，過去幾年裡，（聽不清楚）進口產品受到了媒體的廣泛關注。提醒一下，這大約是 1000 萬噸市場中的 50 萬噸，所以稱之為總計 5%。這些產品將——至少我們的理解是，這些產品將按照新的 15% 關稅進口到美國

And again, the big benefit on (inaudible) was always the yield advantage on the basis weight, which was anywhere between 10% and 15%. So that yield advantage is going to be eroded by the tariff. And of course, you've seen what's happened to the dollar in terms of devaluation. So currency is a pretty big headwind for that as well. So I know there was a lot of concern around investors and analysts around those imports.

再次強調，（聽不清楚）的最大好處始終是基礎重量的產量優勢，大約在 10% 到 15% 之間。因此，收益率優勢將會因關稅而受到侵蝕。當然，您已經看到了美元貶值的情況。因此貨幣對此來說也是一個相當大的阻力。所以我知道投資人和分析師對這些進口產品非常擔憂。

When you take a step back and think about it from a customer standpoint, you've got those headwinds. You're also still 5,000 miles away from your customer versus local supply, which is usually a couple of hours away by truck. So from a complication standpoint and a risk standpoint, that probably benefits those people that are making that material, including to a small degree, Graphic Packaging. So hopefully, that gives you a little color, at least of how we're looking at it.

當你退一步並從客戶的角度考慮時，你就會遇到這些阻力。而且，您距離客戶還有 5,000 英里，而距離當地供應地通常需要幾個小時的卡車車程。因此，從複雜性和風險的角度來看，這可能對製作該材料的人有利，包括一定程度上的圖形包裝。所以希望這至少能給你一點關於我們如何看待這件事的認識。

Super, appreciate it.

太棒了，非常感謝。

Anojja Shah, UBS.

瑞銀的 Anojja Shah。

Hi, good morning, everyone. You mentioned in the prepared comments, and of course, we've read in the news that one or two of your customers are going through some strategic transactions. Can you talk about what's happened in the past when customers go through an acquisition or a transaction like this?

大家好，早安。您在準備好的評論中提到，當然，我們在新聞中看到，您的一兩個客戶正在進行一些策略交易。您能談談過去客戶經歷此類收購或交易時發生的情況嗎？

Do you see a temporary dip in promotions or investment? And when the transaction is done, do you have to requalify with a new owner? Just a little color on what happens in these cases, please?

您是否發現促銷或投資暫時下降？交易完成後，您是否必須重新獲得新所有者的資格？請稍微解釋一下這些案件中發生的情況，好嗎？

Anojja, it's Mike. Thank you for the question. I mean, look, it's not new for consolidation to occur with our customers. We've dealt with it in and out through the years. We don't usually have to requalify.

Anojja，我是 Mike。謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，看看，與我們的客戶整合並不是什麼新鮮事。這些年來，我們一直在處理這個問題。我們通常不需要重新認證。

That would be highly unusual. There is usually a bidding process or recontracting process that takes place early on after that acquisition as you would expect it to be relative to strategic sourcing and spending that customers would want to be able to do. We go through those all the time, participate in those routinely. So don't expect any real issues with that.

那將是極不尋常的。通常在收購後不久就會有一個投標過程或重新簽約過程，因為您會期望它與客戶希望進行的策略採購和支出相關。我們一直在經歷這些，並經常參與這些活動。因此，不要指望這會帶來任何實際問題。

Okay. And I apologize --

好的。我道歉--

Sorry, go ahead, Anojja.

抱歉，請繼續，Anojja。

Yes, I just had a quick one. (technical difficulty)

是的，我剛剛快速吃了一頓。（技術難度）

Anojja, we have to apologize. You just broke up --

Anojja，我們必須道歉。你們剛分手--

Yes. Can you hear me now? Okay. Good. Just thinking through the FX benefit, I assume you're getting an FX benefit on your revenue this year and better volume guidance.

是的。現在你能聽到我說話嗎？好的。好的。只要考慮外匯收益，我假設您今年的收入將獲得外匯收益，並且可以獲得更好的交易量指導。

So your revenue is -- guidance is going up, but then your EBITDA is staying flat. Just wanted to talk about the puts and takes there. I assume more inflation, but anything else in there?

因此，您的收入——預期會上升，但您的 EBITDA 會保持不變。只是想談論那裡的情況。我認為通貨膨脹會加劇，但還有其他因素嗎？

Yes. No, it's Steve. No, you actually -- you said it well. The modest increase in revenue on a flat volume assumption is primarily FX driven, as you mentioned. And then also given overall, no, nothing really new on inflation in terms of incremental inflation.

是的。不，是史蒂夫。不，實際上——你說得很好。正如您所說，在銷售持平的假設下，收入的適度增長主要是由外匯驅動的。而且從整體來看，就增量通膨而言，通膨並沒有什麼新變化。

It actually was down a bit in the quarter versus what we saw in Q1. It really goes to what we've chatted about earlier around just being very assertive on matching supply and demand, producing at or below our overall needs and kind of keeping the business just very dialed in relative to this overall relatively uncertain demand environment and running to that. And so that's what's got us maintaining the midpoint of our guide, given that the top line is up modestly. That's a bit FX driven as well, like we were chatting earlier about the impact on the balance sheet.

與第一季相比，本季的實際數字略有下降。這實際上符合我們之前談到的，即非常積極地匹配供需，按照或低於我們的總體需求進行生產，並保持業務在總體相對不確定的需求環境中保持穩定並朝著這個方向發展。因此，考慮到營收小幅上漲，我們維持了指南的中點。這也有點受外匯驅動，就像我們之前討論的對資產負債表的影響一樣。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

And operator, I don't think there's another call that many of our participants have to jump on. So let's take two more questions.

接線員，我認為我們的許多參與者不需要再接聽其他電話了。我們再回答兩個問題。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Yeah, thank you, Mike, Steve, Mark for taking my questions, squeezing me in here. Hopefully, just two quick ones. Last quarter, you guys mentioned seeing significant input cost inflation. I think you called out about $21 million across energy, chemicals, logistics and transportation and that we should expect that you would incur about $80 million of inflation or input cost inflation in the business this year.

是的，謝謝麥克、史蒂夫和馬克回答我的問題，並抽出時間讓我參加。希望只有兩個簡短的問題。上個季度，你們提到投入成本大幅上漲。我認為您在能源、化學品、物流和運輸領域投入了約 2,100 萬美元，我們預計今年您的業務將出現約 8,000 萬美元的通貨膨脹或投入成本通貨膨脹。

If you wound up at only being $10 million, can you help us discern what transpired from the time of your earnings call on May 1 to the end of the quarter where input costs moderated to the degree it did?

如果最終只有 1000 萬美元，您能否幫助我們辨別從 5 月 1 日收益電話會議到季度末發生了什麼，投入成本是否下降到了這樣的程度？

Yes, Mike, it's Steve. You summarized it well. Q1 inflation around $20 million. It did decelerate towards $10 million. Really three things from a Q1 to Q2. Resin was down, in other words, less inflation of around $3 million. OCC, we had some reductions in secondary fiber costs.

是的，麥克，我是史蒂夫。你總結得很好。第一季通貨膨脹率約 2000 萬美元。它確實減速至 1000 萬美元。從 Q1 到 Q2 確實有三件事。換句話說，樹脂價格下跌，通貨膨脹減少了約 300 萬美元。OCC，我們降低了二次纖維成本。

And then actually logistics, which as we chatted in Q1 were up quite a bit, actually more normalized. So that was the $20 million moving down towards $10 million from the quarter. So it was across kind of the resin, OCC and logistics fronts.

然後實際上物流，正如我們在第一季度討論的那樣，已經增長了不少，實際上更加正常化了。因此，從本季開始，該金額從 2,000 萬美元下降至 1,000 萬美元。因此它涉及樹脂、OCC 和物流方面。

The actual inflation for the quarter was a continuation of some year-over-year inflation, energy, some mill chemicals, our fiber-based packaging materials, I think corrugated, and that was up a bit, but it was offset by favorability, obviously, in OCC. But we did see a step down on the inflation front as we kind of went from Q1 into Q2.

本季的實際通膨是同比通膨的延續，能源、一些工廠化學品、我們的纖維基包裝材料（我認為是瓦楞紙）都略有上漲，但顯然被 OCC 的有利因素所抵消。但隨著第一季進入第二季度，我們確實看到通膨下降。

Got it. And then one quick follow-up, Steve. Just you mentioned no change to Waco's projected returns despite the higher spending, I think $150 million you called out right now, you have $100 million increase in 3Q, bringing total project cost to about $1.25 billion, up from around $1 billion. But why would the project returns remain the same if you're still forecasting Waco's EBITDA to remain flat at $160 million?

知道了。然後再快速跟進一下，史蒂夫。正如您所提到的，儘管支出增加，但 Waco 的預計回報沒有變化，我認為您現在所說的 1.5 億美元，第三季度增加了 1 億美元，使項目總成本從約 10 億美元增加到約 12.5 億美元。但是，如果您仍然預測 Waco 的 EBITDA 將保持在 1.6 億美元不變，那麼為什麼專案回報會保持不變呢？

Yes. Thanks for that, Mike. I appreciate you raising that. We do -- as Mike said, our long-term confidence in the returns are actually extremely high. And so as we look out beyond 2027, our expectations are that we'll continue to see returns from the investment.

是的。謝謝你，麥克。感謝您提出這個問題。我們確實如此——正如麥克所說，我們對長期回報的信心實際上非常高。因此，展望 2027 年以後，我們期望我們將繼續看到投資回報。

So just to maintain some conservatism, $80 million in '26, $80 million in '27. But it's our expectations that as we continue to dial in this phenomenal investment that the actual cost to produce advantages and also some things we're seeing in the region where there's actually been some closures of some recycled facilities in the Southern United States that our OCC cost, the actual cost to fiber the paperboard facility, if you will, are going to be better than expected. So our long-term outlook is for returns beyond the 80 and 80.

因此，為了保持一定的保守性，26 年為 8,000 萬美元，27 年為 8,000 萬美元。但我們的預期是，隨著我們繼續投入這項驚人的投資，實際生產成本優勢以及我們在該地區看到的一些情況，美國南部的一些回收設施實際上已經關閉，我們的 OCC 成本，纖維紙板設施的實際成本，如果你願意的話，將會比預期的要好。因此，我們的長期前景是獲得超過 80% 的回報。

We're just not dialing it in currently because we're looking out into the Vision 2030 aspirations. Our expectation is this will be at or above our original expectations because of cost and quality advantages and input cost advantages. So thank you for raising that.

我們目前還沒有撥通電話，因為我們正在展望 2030 年願景。我們的預期是，由於成本和品質優勢以及投入成本優勢，這將達到或超過我們最初的預期。感謝您提出這個問題。

Yeah, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital.

加拿大皇家銀行資本管理公司的阿倫‧維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

Thanks for taking my question. Hope you guys are well. So just a couple of clarifications on Q2 and the second half guidance. So for Q2, my understanding was the downtime was about a $30 million hit. So maybe if you could confirm that on EBITDA. And then as you look in the second half, on Slide 17, you show the typical patterns. Overall, your business is strongest in Q3 with 4 on those end markets and then it drops back down in Q4.

感謝您回答我的問題。希望你們一切都好。因此，我只想對第二季和下半年的指引做幾點澄清。因此，對於第二季度，我的理解是停機時間造成了約 3000 萬美元的損失。所以也許您可以透過 EBITDA 來確認這一點。然後，當您查看投影片的後半部（第 17 張）時，您會看到典型的模式。總體而言，您的業務在第三季度最為強勁，在終端市場上佔據 4 個席位，然後在第四季度回落。

So looking at that $800 million second half EBITDA, is that kind of higher in Q3 and lower in Q4? Or does the Waco start-up kind of make them more even? And apologies if you had already covered that, but I know there's been a lot of bridge discussion. But yes, maybe you can just offer your thoughts there.

那麼，從下半年 8 億美元的 EBITDA 來看，第三季的 EBITDA 會比較高，而第四季會比較低嗎？或者韋科的創業會讓他們變得更平衡嗎？如果您已經討論過這個問題，我很抱歉，但我知道已經有很多關於橋樑的討論。但是是的，也許您可以在那裡提出您的想法。

No, no problem, Arun. You actually said it well. Q3 is typically seasonality-wise, is a strong quarter, and we would expect that to be the case here as well. And so you have modestly stronger EBITDA and margins in Q3 and then a more normalized seasonal step down modestly in Q4. We wouldn't expect to get any benefits from Waco start-up in Q4 because as we've talked, we'll be in a start-up mode. Those benefits will start to positively in 2026.

不，沒問題，阿倫。你確實說得很好。第三季度通常具有季節性，是一個強勁的季度，我們預計這裡的情況也是如此。因此，第三季的 EBITDA 和利潤率會略有提升，而第四季的季節性下降則會更加正常化。我們不會期望從第四季度的 Waco 啟動中獲得任何好處，因為正如我們所說的，我們將處於啟動模式。這些好處將在 2026 年開始顯現。

That's all we have time for, operator.

我們的時間就這麼多了，接線生。

Yes. The Q&A is now closed. I would now like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

是的。問答環節現已結束。現在我想將發言權交還給管理階層，請他們做最後發言。

Thank you, operator, and thank you for joining us on our call today. The first half of 2025 has been challenging for our CPG and QSR customers, and we are encouraged by the discussions we are having around potential strategies to drive growth and protect market share in the quarters ahead. While there are a range of near-term uncertainties, the outlook for demand for sustainable consumer packaging is strong.

謝謝接線員，謝謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。2025 年上半年對於我們的 CPG 和 QSR 客戶來說充滿挑戰，我們對圍繞未來幾季推動成長和保護市場份額的潛在策略進行的討論感到鼓舞。儘管短期內存在一系列不確定因素，但可持續消費包裝的需求前景強勁。

At Graphic Packaging, we spent the last 8 years building and expanding our innovation and execution capabilities. We are exceptionally well positioned to meet our customers' changing needs and support their growth strategies while generating substantial free cash flow.

在 Graphic Packaging，我們花了 8 年建立和擴展我們的創新和執行能力。我們完全有能力滿足客戶不斷變化的需求並支持他們的成長策略，同時產生大量的自由現金流。

I want to thank our 22,000 employees for their dedication and our stockholders for their continued confidence in Graphic Packaging. Thank you, and good day.

我要感謝我們 22,000 名員工的奉獻精神以及股東對 Graphic Packaging 的持續信任。謝謝，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you, everyone. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝大家。今天的電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開電話線，並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。