Group 1 Automotive Inc (GPI) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Group 1 Automotive 2018 Third Quarter Financial Results Conference Call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Pete DeLongchamps, Group 1's Senior Vice President of Manufacturer Relations, Financial Services & Public Affairs. Please go ahead, Mr. DeLongchamps.

  • Peter C. DeLongchamps - SVP of Manufacturer Relations, Financial Services & Public Affairs

  • Thank you, Cole, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to today's call. The earnings release we issued this morning and a related slide presentation that include reconciliations related to the adjusted results we'll refer to on this call for comparison purposes have been posted to Group 1's website.

  • Before we begin, I'd like to make some brief remarks about forward-looking statements and the use of non-GAAP financial measures. Except for historical information mentioned during the call, statements made by management of Group 1 are forward-looking statements that are pursuant to Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

  • Forward-looking statements involve both known and unknown risks and uncertainties, which may cause the company's actual results in future periods to differ materially from forecasted results. Those risks include, but are not limited to risk associated with pricing, volume and the conditions of markets. Those and other risks are described in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission over the past 12 months. Copies of these filings are available from both the SEC and the company.

  • In addition, certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under SEC rules may be discussed on this call. As required by applicable SEC rules, the company provides reconciliations of any such non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures on its website. Participating today, Earl Hesterberg, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and John Rickel, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Daryl Kenningham, our President of U.S. Operations; and Lance Parker, our Vice President and Corporate Controller. Please note that all comparisons in the prepared remarks are of the same prior year period unless otherwise stated. I'd now like to hand the call over to Earl.

  • Earl J. Hesterberg - CEO, President & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Pete, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report that Group 1 earned $49.2 million of adjusted net income for the quarter. This equates to record quarterly adjusted earnings per share of $2.47 per diluted share, an increase of 11% over a very tough comparison from the prior year.

  • In September 2017, we witnessed unparalleled new vehicle sales in our Houston and Beaumont markets due to Hurricane Harvey replacement demand.

  • Our 2018 third quarter Houston Belmont new vehicle unit sales were down 23% from 2017, which distorts our current U.S. same-store result.

  • Our U.S. new vehicle same-store sales were down 10% for the quarter, while used vehicle sales increased 5.5%.

  • Also impacting the quarter was a severe decline in U.K. new vehicle unit sales due to the lack of 2019 model year new vehicle availability in key brands due to a new vehicle certification protocol.

  • Our third quarter same-store U.K. new vehicle unit sales declined 22% from the prior year as a number of models were unavailable to sell, particularly in our Audi, Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes brands.

  • We expect these sales to be recovered over the course of the next 2 quarters.

  • We were able to mitigate the financial pressure from significantly lower U.K. new vehicle sales volume with a solid used car performance across the company and significant cost control actions. Further offsetting these headwinds, there is a significant reduction in our outstanding share count, year-to-date through today, we've repurchased over 1.9 million shares, which represents 9.5% of our beginning of the year common share count.

  • And as announced in this morning's press release, our board has increased our share repurchase authorization to $100 million. We will continue to assess our capital allocation priorities by comparing the returns on investment for corporate growth actions to our common stock valuation.

  • Before I make further comments about our quarterly result, I would like to address the impact of Hurricane Michael has had on our employees and operations. We have 2 stores located in Panama City, Florida, which were directly hit by the hurricane.

  • The vast majority of our 53 local employees suffered property losses and some lost everything. We've taken steps to assist these employees during this difficult time. Our dealership property and vehicle inventory suffered relatively minor damage and our operations were shut down for roughly 1 week.

  • We expect no material impact on our fourth quarter financial statements.

  • Our thoughts are with all of those who have been impacted by the storm.

  • Turning to our business segments. During the quarter, we retailed over 43,000 new vehicles. Total consolidated new vehicle revenues decreased 9% on a constant currency basis driven by a 10% decrease in unit sales related to Hurricane Harvey comps and U.K. emissions legislation as mentioned earlier.

  • Our new unit sales geographic mix was 74% U.S., 21% U.K. and 5% Brazil. Our new vehicle brand mix was led by Toyota/Lexus, which accounted for 27% of our new unit sales, VW/Audi represented 12%, BMW/MINI represented 12% and Ford represented 11% of our new vehicle sales.

  • During the quarter, we retailed over 37,000 used retailed units, driven by strong performances in both the U.S. and U.K. Total consolidated used vehicle revenues grew 5% on a constant currency basis as we sold 3% more units, and average used vehicle selling price increased 2%.

  • Used vehicle gross profit increased 7% on a constant currency basis as the unit increase combined with total used vehicle gross profit per unit increase up 5%. The used volume and per unit margin increase were the result of our corporate-wide focus in this area of our business and especially our new Val-U-Line initiative in the U.S.

  • Total consolidated parts and service revenue increased 4% on a constant currency basis, driven by increases in customer pay of 8%, wholesale parts of 3% and collision of 1%, partially offset by a 1% decline in warranty.

  • Finance and insurance gross profit decreased 1% on a consolidated constant currency basis. This decline was driven by a decrease in retail units of 2%, partially offset by F&I per retail unit increase of 1%. Regarding our geographic segment results, I'd like to turn the call over to Daryl Kenningham President of U.S. Operations to discuss our U.S. quarterly results, before I cover the U.K. and Brazil.

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Thank you, Earl. We were generally pleased with our performance in the U.S. in the third quarter, despite very difficult comps versus a year ago. As Earl mentioned, Hurricane Harvey significantly distorted our year-over-year operating metrics.

  • On a sequential basis, we increased total revenues by 1.5% and gross profit by 1%. On a year-over-year same store basis, I'm particularly proud of the fact that we continue to generate strong growth in used retail unit sales as we saw 5.5% improvement.

  • Val-U-Line retail unit sales increased to 11% of our units during the quarter and was a primary driver in our same-store used vehicle gross profit growth. In addition, we lowered our reliance on the used vehicle wholesale markets as our wholesale unit sales volume declined 28%.

  • Our new internal auction process, more aggressive internal inventory transfer policies, improved reconditioning practices and more disciplined inventory management drove this trend.

  • In addition to the 5.5% same-store sales increase, we increased our total used vehicle gross profit per unit by $31.

  • Our quarterly after sales results were slightly lower than anticipated at a 2.4% increase in same-store gross profit. The results were negatively impacted by a 6% decline in warranty gross profit, which is primarily explained by the lapping of Takata airbag recalls.

  • Both collision and wholesale parts gross profit increased 2%, while customer pay increased over 6% on a same-store basis. That's our best customer pay quarter in our -- in over 2 years. We continue to roll out our 4-day workweek initiative and are very pleased with the outperformance and after sales growth at the 39 stores where it's been fully implemented.

  • I'd also like to recognize the efforts of our team in controlling costs. Although SG&A slightly delevered versus a very tough year-over-year comp, the team has continued to place a strong focus on expense control.

  • SG&A as a percent of gross profit at 70.6% is near historical lows for the U.S.

  • Lastly, our digital efforts are showing great progress, consistent with our strategy to do business when and how our customers want to, we now have pilots in 24 stores that enable the customer to purchase a vehicle online.

  • Results are early, but we're encouraged at this point. Closing rates are significantly higher when customers start their purchase process online, and our customers tell us the process is outstanding and they love the time savings.

  • In addition, we're making it easier for our service customers to do business with us. Our online service appointments increased 26% versus the third quarter of 2017, and now represent nearly 1 quarter of all of our service appointments.

  • Lastly, due to changes we've made in our website content and our search engine optimization, the traffic coming to us organically is up 31% year-over-year. Organic traffic is much more productive and profitable than traffic we received from third-party sources. All of these initiatives will lead a lower cost for Group 1 and more convenience for our customers. We will have more updates on these initiatives in the future. I will now turn the call back over to Earl.

  • Earl J. Hesterberg - CEO, President & Executive Director

  • Thanks, Daryl. As mentioned earlier, our U.K. operations were significantly disrupted in the quarter due to the WLTP legislation that came into effect on September 1. The total industry was down 10% for the quarter, but our brands, particularly the VW family of brands were disproportionately affected.

  • In the areas that we can control, used, after sales and F&I, our team once again delivered strong same-store growth. Our used retail unit sales increased 8% and total used gross profit increased a staggering 18% on a constant currency basis.

  • F&I for retail unit increased 4% and after sales gross profit increased 3%, both on a constant currency basis.

  • Finally, I should note that while our new vehicle sales were depressed in September, our customer demand remained steady. We would expect to make up a good portion of the lost sales late in the fourth and throughout the first quarter.

  • Now turning to Brazil, which had a very strong quarter as we continue to benefit from process improvements and strong cost control.

  • Total same-store gross profit increased 15% on a constant currency basis, driven by a 36% increase in new vehicles, a 17% increase in F&I and a 5% increase in after sales.

  • Our team did a tremendous job leveraging this additional gross profit as SG&A declined 460 basis points to 85.1% and operating margin increased 80 basis points to 1.7%.

  • We continue to be very proud of the work our local team has done, and we're well positioned to take full advantage of the recovering market. I'll now turn the call over to our CFO, John Rickel, to go over some of our third quarter financial results in more detail. John?

  • John C. Rickel - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Earl, good morning, everyone. For the third quarter of 2018, our adjusted net income increased $2.6 million or 5.5% over our comparable 2017 results to $49.2 million. These 2018 adjusted quarterly results exclude the $14.4 million of net charges, consisting of $17.7 million of noncash franchise rights impairments in part explained by an OEM granting and an adjacent open point to another dealer group, partially offset by $4.4 million of net gains associated with dealership in real estate transactions.

  • On a fully diluted per share basis, adjusted earnings increased 10.8% to $2.47, an all-time quarterly record.

  • For the quarter, we generated $2.9 billion in total revenues, which was a 4.3% decrease from the prior year, due to both Hurricane Harvey comps and the impact of the WLTP legislation on new vehicle sales in the U.K.

  • Our gross profit only declined 0.7%, however, as gross margin increased from 14.5% to 15.1%.

  • As a percent of gross profit, adjusted SG&A increased 80 basis points to 73.6%, as Hurricane Harvey's boost to new vehicle sales and margins in September last year contributed to a very difficult SG&A comp.

  • Floorplan interest expense increased by $1.2 million or 8.9% from prior year to $14.7 million, reflecting higher LIBOR interest rates versus third quarter of last year. Other interest expense increased $1.3 million or 7.1% to $19.1 million due to increased mortgage and other borrowings.

  • Our consolidated adjusted effective tax rate for the third quarter was 23% and year-to-date, it is 23.6%. We forecast our full year 2018 tax rate to be between 23.5% and 24%.

  • Turning to our consolidated liquidity and capital structure. As of September 30, we had $32 million of cash on hand and another $91.9 million that was invested in our floorplan offset accounts, bringing immediately available funds to a total of $123.9 million.

  • During the third quarter, we repurchased 790,000 shares at an average price of $69.77 for a total of $55.1 million. In October, we repurchased an additional 400,000 shares at an average price of $62.52 for a total of $25 million.

  • As Earl stated, year-to-date through today, we have repurchased over 1.9 million shares at an average price of $67.86 for a total of $131.4 million.

  • These repurchases totaled 9.5% of our beginning of the year share float. Our outstanding common share count as of today is 18.6 million.

  • Also during the third quarter, we used $5.2 million to pay dividends of $0.26 per share, an increase of 8% per share over the third quarter a year ago and an annualized yield of approximately 1.8%.

  • For additional detail regarding our financial condition, please refer to the schedules of additional information attached to the news release as well as the investor presentation posted on our website. I will now turn the call back over to Earl.

  • Earl J. Hesterberg - CEO, President & Executive Director

  • Thanks, John. Related to our Corporate Development efforts, the company was pleased to have previously announced the third quarter purchase of 2 Honda stores in the U.S. that will generate approximately $125 million in annual revenues. The stores were located in the Metro areas of San Antonio and New Orleans. These acquisitions brought our total 2018 year-to-date acquisition activity to 14 franchises, generating $530 million of annual revenues. During the quarter, we also disposed of our Ford franchise in California that generated $60 million in trailing 12-month revenue. This disposition is consistent with our strategy of disposing of underperforming assets and redeploying capital in ways that are beneficial to our shareholders. This concludes our prepared remarks. I'll now turn the call over to the operator to begin the question-and-answer session. Operator?

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question comes with John Murphy with Bank of America.

  • Yarden Amsalem - Research Analyst

  • This is Yarden Amsalem here on for John. So my first question is on your strategic initiatives and in particular, your technician initiatives. I was wondering if you -- maybe you guys can comment on how do you see that ramping?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • With our 4-day workweek, I assume is the question. We're more interested in doing it well than we are in doing it quickly. And so we rolled out completely 39 of our stores, and this is Daryl Kenningham by the way. And we expect to continue that on a steady basis throughout the rest of this year and into the first quarter, we want -- we will -- when we're all finished, about 80% of our stores will have that, because there are some stores that are too small to support that structure, but about 80% of our stores will have it. So should be between now and the end of the first quarter, should be -- we expect it to be almost fully rolled out.

  • Yarden Amsalem - Research Analyst

  • Got it. So you -- can you quantify maybe the incremental benefit that you're seeing in those stores in which you have implemented this initiative versus the ones that you haven't?

  • Earl J. Hesterberg - CEO, President & Executive Director

  • Yes, this is Earl. I don't think that our customer pay growth in the quarter was accidental. We had our largest customer pay growth quarter in the last 2 years I believe, which was about 8%.

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • It was well under 7% in the U.S.

  • Earl J. Hesterberg - CEO, President & Executive Director

  • Yes.

  • Yarden Amsalem - Research Analyst

  • Okay, makes sense. And then on F&I, it was very strong particularly in the U.S. So can you maybe talk about the drivers there, and how should we think about going forward? I mean, do you guys think that there's more room to push that even further?

  • Peter C. DeLongchamps - SVP of Manufacturer Relations, Financial Services & Public Affairs

  • Well, thank you for asking, this is Pete DeLongchamps. I think, the financial services team in all 3 countries continue to do a very good job of executing on our strategy. And this quarter's performance, we continue to really keep our financing levels steady, but we've done a much better job with product. And I think for modeling purposes, where we are today, the $1,600 range, we've got the rising interest rates and our used car business in Val-U-Line continues to grow. So we're pleased with the performance, and I think that if you model kind of where we are today will be a fair direction.

  • Yarden Amsalem - Research Analyst

  • So I have a quick follow-up on that. Can you maybe comment about the difference in [FIPVR] that you're seeing on a new vehicle versus the traditional 0- to 5-years old vehicle and then what you're seeing in Val-U-Line?

  • Peter C. DeLongchamps - SVP of Manufacturer Relations, Financial Services & Public Affairs

  • So yes. We make a little bit more money on new, and used continues to be relatively steady and then the Val-U-Line is about 1/3 of what we would make on the overall.

  • Yarden Amsalem - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And the last question is just on SG&A. Can you maybe break down the performance for us by region? And then talk about some of the initiatives that you're taking to drive improvement there?

  • Earl J. Hesterberg - CEO, President & Executive Director

  • This is Earl. Yes, we've had -- since the first quarter of this year, it's simply dealership-by-dealership in both the U.S. and the U.K. quarter-after-quarter, and it's in every single expense area, so that's ongoing. I will say in the U.K., there is some limit in a few of the brands as we've lost new vehicle sales volume quickly, but it's going to come back. So in some stores, we can't resize them to the current level of volume because it's going to come back somewhat quickly. But yes, it's down and dirty store-by-store in every country and every expense category.

  • Operator

  • And our next question comes with Rick Nelson from Stephens.

  • Nels Richard Nelson - MD

  • I'd like to follow up on the U.K. and whether there is a way to really size up the challenge, how many units you may be lost in the third quarter because of WLTP, and how you think that inventory -- does it all get made up in the fourth quarter? Are we looking at -- into the first quarter of next year for that to be made up?

  • Earl J. Hesterberg - CEO, President & Executive Director

  • Yes, sure, Rick, I'm not sure I can do the math quickly enough to give you a unit count. But you could see, we were down a bit more than 20% in the quarter. And in September, I believe we were down about 23%. That's critical because that's a big volume month. One of the 2 plate changes. But probably, more importantly is, where are we at this -- this moment. And through the 24th of October, I was looking at registration data in the U.K., the market is still down 11% in total. But it seems that most of our key brands are coming back and are now down in single digits and there's cars coming in. The problem we still have is the Volkswagen group, and it appears they have solved the problem and those vehicles will start to be released. But as of the 24th, Audi, for example, was still down 59% in the month of October in the U.K.

  • We have 10 Audi stores, 5 Volkswagen stores in the U.K. I checked yesterday, we are starting to get some of the high-end Audi models A6, A7, Q7 and Q8, which is a start, and we see there's gross profit potential on those, but our volume is done in models like A1, A3, A4, Q2, Q3, and we don't expect to get numbers back until very late this year and early next year on those volume models. So it seems that it's going to be narrowed down to more of a Volkswagen group brand issue for us as we move later into the fourth quarter.

  • Nels Richard Nelson - MD

  • And can you remind us what those brands count for your U.K. sales?

  • Earl J. Hesterberg - CEO, President & Executive Director

  • What the...

  • John C. Rickel - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, the Audi/Volkswagen brand is probably 1/3 of our U.K. business, Rick. And kind of to your earlier question, in total, we were down 2,200 units on a year-over-year basis. The industry may be have been a little bit weaker coming in. So I'd say rough estimate, it probably cost us 2,000 units in the quarter.

  • Nels Richard Nelson - MD

  • And maybe 2/3 of those come back in the fourth quarter?

  • Earl J. Hesterberg - CEO, President & Executive Director

  • I would certainly hope that we get at least half back in this quarter. And then by the first quarter, we should be getting back to normal in particular since the big volume in the first quarter next year will be March. So by March, I'm sure all the OEMs are going to want to be full speed ahead.

  • Nels Richard Nelson - MD

  • Got you. And Hurricane Harvey, you started to lap that replacement demand late in the third quarter, and that's probably going to have a bigger impact in the fourth quarter. Any color around how we should think about of that impact in Houston.

  • John C. Rickel - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. Rick, this is John Rickel. I mean, clearly, there was a lot of sales in September last year. That continued into October and November. And now if you take a look, we were up almost 5% in the quarter -- in the fourth quarter of last year on new vehicle sales. So that's kind of the bogey we'll be chasing against. In addition, the margins were pretty strong during that time, so the gross profit dollars were even up kind of more than that. So we've got a couple more months of pretty strong comps we're going to be up against.

  • Operator

  • And our next question comes with James Albertine from Consumer Edge.

  • James Joseph Albertine - Senior Analyst of Automotive & Managing Partner

  • I wanted to focus on the used segment, if I could in the United States. You've got a lot going on there with Val-U-Line, working its way into the gross profit per unit trajectory there. Can we just maybe try and unpack late-model vehicles, and if you can maybe help us isolate what's going on competitively in that segment that may be impacting margins there, either positively or negatively? Just kind of give us some direction as to what's going on in that part of the used vehicle segment?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Jamie, Daryl Kenningham. Just to clarify, are you asking what's happening with older used cars or with Val-U-Line specifically?

  • James Joseph Albertine - Senior Analyst of Automotive & Managing Partner

  • No. The opposite, younger. So the CPO, the off lease, the 0 to 4 segment, so would be the higher price points.

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • There is -- CPO was up marginally for us, and while volume percentage of our mix, it was down a bit. In the quarter, we're seeing competition in luxury mix as we managed through our loaner fleets, which is significant source of vehicles for us, sort of late-model, new, nearly new. So there's quite a bit of competition there, I guess, I would tell you.

  • James Joseph Albertine - Senior Analyst of Automotive & Managing Partner

  • Yes. And how about from a sourcing perspective, I don't think there's been as much focus among the questions on the franchise dealers side as to how much you bring from auction versus how much you depend on trade ins and so forth? I'd imagine you're in a pretty advantageous spot just from an off-lease perspective. If you could help us sort of quantify your primary sourcing channels, it'd be great.

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Probably the best place that we can get a preowned car is by trading for it. And we put a lot of focus on that, our wholesales volumes were down 28% last quarter and that's on purpose. We try to rely less on the wholesale markets, meaning buying and selling through auctions. And we want to try to trade for more of our customers' cars and keep more of those cars. And we have purposely put some initiatives in place to try to do exactly that. We just feel like those are better units. We know the service history, and we feel like we can control more of that transaction.

  • James Joseph Albertine - Senior Analyst of Automotive & Managing Partner

  • Are you able to put a percentage around it? I mean over 50% would you say, source from trade-ins or off-lease vehicles, would that be fair?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • I'd say about 60% from trade-ins, Jamie. I'm not quite sure it's 1/3. We like it to be 2/3, 1/3. I think the other point to make, which is part of your question is that acquiring off-lease vehicles from the OEM is very much like an auction, most of those cars we wouldn't consider a trade-in. If you're buying an off lease from the OEMs, so maybe an online auction or -- it's not really the most price-efficient way to acquire some of the vehicles. So there is some margin pressure in dealing with quantities of off-lease vehicles that you get from the OEM. We don't influence that pricing a lot.

  • James Joseph Albertine - Senior Analyst of Automotive & Managing Partner

  • Understood. But you do have right of first refusal, right? So you could pass on vehicles that might have a more difficult or more pressured margin condition?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • For those which are returned to your dealerships.

  • Operator

  • And our next question comes with David Tamberrino from Goldman Sachs.

  • David J. Tamberrino - Equity Analyst

  • Just wanted to dig in a couple of the regional stuff from Brazil and then U.S.

  • First on Brazil, I think adjusted SG&A was pretty good, down in the mid-80s this quarter. And more often than not, it's been a little bit higher and somewhat money-losing. We -- are you at a position where that trend should continue? And if so, is there any incremental leverage that you can get as the environment potentially rebounds?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • The most important thing for Brazil at the moment is the presidential election on Sunday. If there is a business friendly administration, which everyone is hoping for, then we would expect the overall market to continue to recover from kind of a low of 2 million units and move up from the 2.3 million phase or whatever it's currently at. So that is the biggest factor for us. In the quarter, what we had a big increase in our new vehicle margins, some of that was because we're blowing out volume vehicles a year ago. We have a much better supply/demand relationship with Honda and Toyota at the moment, and then also we have some recovery in some of our luxury brand business there, which is BMW and JLR. So I think our Brazilian business can continue to grow if the overall political and economic environment continues to improve.

  • David J. Tamberrino - Equity Analyst

  • Got it. And can you contrast that against -- I understand you're expecting a rebound next year in U.K. as vehicles become more available. But how are you -- what do you think about the headwinds from the overall market if we do end up having a no-deal Brexit, and it starts to weigh on consumers' minds?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Yes. And that is -- that's kind of like the overall political environment in Brazil, that is probably the critical factor in determining the size of market next year. The supply matter, the correction to it is well underway, and it's going to happen. So the inventory will be there. It's very hard to imagine that Brexit will be sorted out to some reasonable manner that will enable life to go on economically, both the U.K. and the EU need each other on vehicles. There's twice as many vehicles coming into the U.K. as are being exported out. It's a big issue for Germany and the #3, #4 and #5 brands in the U.K. auto market are German: they're Audi, BMW and Mercedes, not necessarily in that order. And of course, the Japanese manufacturers and JLR export a lot of vehicles. They have factories there. So it's unlikely that economically, the 2 parties are going to damage themselves at the end of the day. So I think it will get sorted out. And I believe when clarity does occur, whatever it is, because this has never been done before. We don't know exactly what will happen. But there should be an uptick in consumer confidence which should help the auto market.

  • David J. Tamberrino - Equity Analyst

  • Understood. And then lastly, I think towards the end of the quarter, maybe even afterwards you announced of some partnerships and working in vehicle subscription programs. How do you see that really adding to the dealer product offerings that you have so far? And what type of margins or how does that improve your business model?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Well, realistically, I don't think its material financially to anybody. I think, we're all trying to learn from these experiences. We were asked by Audi to participate, we were eager to do so because we want to learn, they want to learn. But we don't see this is a significant profit opportunity in the near term. We're just trying to get experience and adapt to change as it occurs in the market.

  • David J. Tamberrino - Equity Analyst

  • I understand that, but maybe it's too early to tell, but if it was to become a serious business model and you were to see a significant percentage of the U.S. buyer move towards that type of contract or financing for vehicle. Does that take away from what your profit generation could be from the triple play or the quadruple play, if you will, where you're getting a new sale, a trade-in, the P&S and the F&I?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • I don't know enough to really comment on that, but I think the underlying assumption is that as long as we continue to serve our customers with their transportation needs, that will be a business model that needs to work for everyone, the OEM and the retailer. And so we're trying to maintain our value to the OEM by being good distribution partners. We're trying to maintain our value to the customer. And that's the best odds we have for continuing to have a good business model.

  • Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our next question comes with David Whiston from Morningstar.

  • David Whiston - Strategist

  • Can you talk about what you're seeing in the U.S. in terms of -- are you seeing any actual aggressive price-war like discounting tactics from your competitors in Japan, 3 franchise stores?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Daryl Kenningham here. Generally, we're seeing an aggressive market, inventories are fairly balanced car to truck for the -- that's the second quarter in a row that we've seen that. A year ago, it was -- and we're significantly heavier in car than we were in truck, SUV. I would say incentives are more aggressive in trucks now than they've been, the structure of the incentives are changing because of interest rate increases you're seeing less APR support and more cash support. And then it appears to me, it appears to us that the OEMs are managing cars through production and managing truck sales through incentives. That's just a general statement.

  • David Whiston - Strategist

  • Okay. And interest rates going up, most dealers are saying it really hasn't hurt their customers' ability to buy a car yet. Do you agree?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • I think we haven't seen enough evidence yet. We're watching it, obviously, and we haven't seen enough evidence of that yet. John, maybe you want to add to that?

  • John C. Rickel - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes. I mean, the sensitivity -- John Rickel here. The sensitivity 100 basis points for our average customer is worth about $25 a month in payment. And I agree with Daryl, I think it's a little premature to be able to say, obviously, if rates continue to go up at some point, it will start to waive. I think, it's a little early yet.

  • David Whiston - Strategist

  • Okay. And I guess my last question, John, is just, I apologize for missing this, but I think you gave some tax rate guidance. I missed it. Do you mind repeating it?

  • John C. Rickel - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes basically, we were 23% for the quarter, we're23.6% adjusted for year-to-date and we're comfortable with you modeling kind of 23.5% to 24% for the full year.

  • Operator

  • And our next question comes from Armintas Sinkevicius from Morgan Stanley.

  • Armintas Sinkevicius - Associate

  • A little bit more commentary in the prepared remarks today from the digital initiatives. Maybe you could talk about the amount of investment you're putting into that? And what spurred increased focus on this?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Daryl Kenningham here. We're not prepared to share investment number. But it is getting a lot of focus for us. Our customers want to do business that way and as I mentioned, we're going to do business when our customers want to do business and how they want to do business and they demonstrate that over and over. So it's really the customer driving this and where we can see some cost savings, we will certainly take advantage of that. But service and sales, we're seeing a great deal of it.

  • Armintas Sinkevicius - Associate

  • Okay, and are you delivering the vehicle to the customers' homes?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • We offer that. Candidly, a lot of customers aren't taking advantage of that, but we offer that.

  • And it's early in this initiative for us. So a couple of things we learn more as we go.

  • Armintas Sinkevicius - Associate

  • I guess, 1 question with that to the extent that you have delivered some vehicles to the home, any sense on how many vehicles people like to test drive? Is it just 1 vehicle that you deliver? Or the people want to try 2? Just curious on your thoughts there, experiences.

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Well, I think that there's a lot of confusion and misrepresentation in this whole area. We've been delivering vehicles to customers' homes, particularly used vehicles for a decade. And the new cars too, if they wanted but they usually don't -- you don't have to go that far in delivering new vehicle because they're not going so far away from home to buy it. So yes, I think buyers are much more educated now and they are very much zeroed-in on the model they want, by the time they get into serious engagement with us. That's one of the advantages of the online world. So I suppose, they may test drive 2 or 3, but I think today's shopper is pretty well zeroed-in on the model they want and the new car. And relative to this investment conversation, there's a lot of confusion there too. Most of this investment from an IT viewpoint on this online purchasing, this is done by vendors. We don't pay for most of that. There's a variety of vendors that do it. OEMs are supporting it in many ways, there's different OEM programs, that we can call investment to people we have in our Internet lead handling centers, which I think perhaps is what some people do. But this is not something that we're investing many millions of dollars to develop proprietary software. It's not necessary. It's all being developed in the industry.

  • Armintas Sinkevicius - Associate

  • Yes, okay. And then curious on the oil market. I know there's some tough comps coming up with -- or we're in the middle of them as far as Houston and Hurricane Harvey. But what are you seeing maybe on a sequential basis regarding the oil markets there?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Were we muted?

  • Earl J. Hesterberg - CEO, President & Executive Director

  • Yes for a second.

  • John C. Rickel - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes we're back, sorry.

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Did you hear any of the response?

  • Armintas Sinkevicius - Associate

  • I missed the entire response.

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Okay, my apologies. I do think the oil impact on the economy is continuing to recover. We finally seen Oklahoma lap their weak comps and they're starting to come into the plus side a little bit on unit comps in markets like Houston. Economy continues to slowly gather strength as the world adjusts to these higher oil prices and lower cost of production and so forth. So I think we're continuing to see a recovery in those energy-related economies.

  • Armintas Sinkevicius - Associate

  • Okay. And on the flip side with rising gas prices. Are you seeing anything at the store level with regards to that affecting purchases whether it's units or mix or anything like that?

  • Daryl Adam Kenningham - President of U.S. Operations

  • Not yet, no.

  • Operator

  • And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

  • Earl J. Hesterberg - CEO, President & Executive Director

  • Okay, thanks to everyone for joining us today. We look forward to updating you on our fourth quarter earnings call in February. Thank you.

  • Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.