Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to Generac Holdings Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Kris Rosemann, Senior Manager, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Generac Holdings 第四季度和 2023 年全年收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給企業發展和投資者關係高級經理克里斯·羅斯曼 (Kris Rosemann)。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. With me today is Aaron Jagdfeld, President and Chief Executive Officer; and York Ragen, Chief Financial Officer. We will begin our call today by commenting on forward-looking statements.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。今天與我在一起的是總裁兼執行長 Aaron Jagdfeld；和財務長約克·雷根。我們今天將首先對前瞻性陳述發表評論。

Certain statements made during this presentation as well as other information provided from time to time by Generac or its employees may contain forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in these forward-looking statements. Please see our earnings release or SEC filings for a list of words or expressions that identify such statements and the associated risk factors.

本簡報中的某些陳述以及 Generac 或其員工不時提供的其他資訊可能包含前瞻性陳述，並涉及可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性。請參閱我們的收益報告或 SEC 文件，以了解識別此類聲明和相關風險因素的單字或表達方式清單。

In addition, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures during today's call. Additional information regarding these measures, including reconciliation to comparable U.S. GAAP measures, is available in our earnings release and SEC filings.

此外，我們將在今天的電話會議中參考某些非公認會計原則措施。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比較的美國公認會計準則措施的調節，請參閱我們的收益報告和美國證券交易委員會的文件。

I will now turn the call over to Aaron.

我現在將把電話轉給亞倫。

Thanks, Kris. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Happy Valentine's Day. I think I can say that. Our fourth quarter results reflect continued improvement in operating performance as shipments of home standby generators returned to strong year-over-year growth in the quarter despite a softer-than-expected power outage environment. We also experienced significant margin expansion in the quarter, driven by favorable mix and price cost tailwinds on both a year-over-year and sequential basis.

謝謝，克里斯。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。情人節快樂。我想我可以這麼說。我們第四季的業績反映了營運業績的持續改善，儘管停電環境比預期疲軟，但家用備用發電機的出貨量在本季恢復了強勁的同比增長。在有利的組合和價格成本推動下，本季我們的利潤率也出現了顯著增長，同比和環比均如此。

In addition, we generated record free cash flow in the quarter on the continued reduction of our inventory levels. Year-over-year, overall net sales increased 1% to $1.06 billion, and core sales were approximately flat during the quarter. Residential product sales increased 1% from the prior year as growth in home standby generator shipments offset lower portable generator sales in the quarter.

此外，由於庫存水準持續降低，我們在本季創造了創紀錄的自由現金流。整體淨銷售額年增 1%，達到 10.6 億美元，本季核心銷售額基本持平。由於家用備用發電機出貨量的成長抵消了本季便攜式發電機銷量的下降，住宅產品銷售額較上年增長 1%。

C&I product sales were approximately in line with the strong prior year fourth quarter as softness in the domestic telecom and rental channels was offset by continued strength in broader C&I end markets. Before discussing our fourth quarter results in more detail, I want to provide some highlights for the full year 2023.

工商業產品銷售與去年第四季的強勁表現大致持平，因為國內電信和租賃通路的疲軟被更廣泛的工商業終端市場的持續強勁所抵消。在更詳細地討論我們第四季的業績之前，我想先介紹一下 2023 年全年的一些亮點。

Global C&I product sales in 2023 reached an all-time record of approximately $1.5 billion, our third consecutive year of strong double-digit growth in the category, resulting in a nearly 30% sales, compounded annual sales growth rate over those 3 years. This included record full year performance in our International segment for both net sales and adjusted EBITDA.

2023 年，全球 C&I 產品銷售額達到約 15 億美元的歷史記錄，這是我們該類別連續第三年實現兩位數的強勁增長，導致這 3 年銷售額複合年增長率接近 30%。這包括我們國際部門全年淨銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 創紀錄的業績。

The strength in our C&I products has helped to offset the headwinds in our residential product categories related to elevated levels of home standby generator field inventory in 2023 and a strong comparable period that included the benefit of excess backlog reduction. Although our shipments to the market were impacted by these factors during the year, home consultations or sales leads increased for the full year despite not having the benefit of a major outage event during 2023.

我們的工商業產品的優勢有助於抵消住宅產品類別的不利因素，這些不利因素與 2023 年家用備用發電機現場庫存水準上升有關，以及可比時期的強勁表現，其中包括減少過多積壓的好處。儘管我們今年的市場出貨量受到這些因素的影響，但儘管沒有受益於 2023 年的重大停電事件，但全年的上門諮詢或銷售線索仍然有所增加。

Additionally, our return to improving margin performance in the second half of the year, together with the continued reduction in our inventory levels, helped drive cash flow from operations to an all-time record for full year 2023. This robust cash flow generation provided additional flexibility with respect to our capital deployment as we completed $252 million of share repurchases, while also continuing to invest in advancing our products and solutions road maps during the year.

此外，我們下半年的利潤率表現恢復改善，加上庫存水準持續下降，有助於推動 2023 年全年營運現金流創下歷史新高。這種強勁的現金流產生提供了額外的收益。我們完成了2.52 億美元的股票回購，同時在這一年中繼續投資推進我們的產品和解決方案路線圖，從而實現了資本部署的靈活性。

We continue to make significant investments in our engineering and manufacturing capabilities in 2023 as we opened an engineering center of excellence in Reno, Nevada, and broke ground on a new manufacturing facility in Wisconsin to increase capacity for C&I stationary products. We also continue to launch compelling new products during the year, including the introduction of stationary C&I energy storage solutions for the domestic market to help decentralize, digitize and decarbonize the future electrical grid with advanced microgrid applications.

2023 年，我們將繼續對工程和製造能力進行重大投資，在內華達州里諾市開設了卓越工程中心，並在威斯康辛州破土動工建造了一座新製造工廠，以提高工商業固定產品的產能。我們也在年內繼續推出引人注目的新產品，包括為國內市場推出固定式工商業儲能解決方案，透過先進的微電網應用幫助未來電網實現分散化、數位化和脫碳化。

In addition, the Ecobee team launched a smart doorbell camera product line, helping to drive engagement to their platform. We also made important progress towards our vision of building a common platform and user interface for our suite of residential solutions through the integration of our home standby generators and propane tank monitoring devices using Ecobee as the central hub to manage our products and solutions.

此外，Ecobee 團隊還推出了智慧門鈴攝影機產品線，有助於提高其平台的參與度。我們還透過使用 Ecobee 作為管理我們的產品和解決方案的中心樞紐整合我們的家用備用發電機和丙烷罐監控設備，為我們的住宅解決方案套件建立通用平台和用戶介面的願景取得了重要進展。

Additionally, we introduced our new -- it's a power move advertising campaign to help drive incremental consumer awareness to the home standby generator category to a broader demographic range. We made further strategic investments in 2023 that help to accelerate our powering of Smarter World Enterprise Strategy as we acquired REFU Storage Systems, a provider of stationary C&I energy storage solutions for European markets and made a minority investment in Wallbox., a leading provider of EV charging solutions for both residential and commercial applications.

此外，我們還推出了新的「動力移動」廣告活動，以幫助提高消費者對家庭備用發電機類別的認識，使其覆蓋更廣泛的人群。我們在2023 年進行了進一步的策略性投資，收購了為歐洲市場提供固定工商業儲能解決方案的供應商REFU Storage Systems，並對領先的電動車供應商Wallbox 進行了少數股權投資，這有助於加速我們實現智慧世界企業策略。適用於住宅和商業應用的充電解決方案。

Our investment in Wallbox is expected to result in global commercial collaboration as well as the addition of a Generac seed on the Wallbox Board of Directors. We're excited to partner with an innovative technology leader in the EV charging industry and look forward to integrating Wallbox's solutions with our broader energy technology portfolio to further expand the value proposition of the energy ecosystem that we are building for homes and businesses.

我們對 Wallbox 的投資預計將帶來全球商業合作，並在 Wallbox 董事會中增加 Generac 種子。我們很高興與電動車充電行業的創新技術領導者合作，並期待將Wallbox 的解決方案與我們更廣泛的能源技術產品組合相集成，以進一步擴大我們為家庭和企業構建的能源生態系統的價值主張。

Importantly, throughout 2023, the megatrends that we believe will drive our longer-term growth were on full display as increasingly severe weather, coupled with the continued evolution of the energy grid in the U.S. further demonstrated the important role that our products and solutions can provide to the market. Although the U.S. did not experience any major power outage events during 2023 and despite the fourth quarter being the lowest fourth quarter for outage hours since 2015, there were numerous smaller scale severe weather events that did occur throughout the year across a number of regions in North America, which drove monthly power outage activity above the long-term average baseline.

重要的是，在整個 2023 年，我們認為將推動我們長期增長的大趨勢隨著日益惡劣的天氣以及美國電網的持續發展而得到充分展現，進一步證明了我們的產品和解決方案可以提供的重要作用去市場。儘管美國在 2023 年期間沒有發生任何重大停電事件，並且第四季度是自 2015 年以來停電時間最少的第四季度，但北部多個地區全年確實發生了許多小規模的惡劣天氣事件。美國，每月停電活動超過長期平均基線。

In addition to the increasingly frequent and higher magnitude weather-related power disruptions, legislative and regulatory reactions to climate change are also impacting the Power Grid as well. On the supply side, utility scale, solar and wind power are being incentivized relative to traditional baseload thermal sources, but they are intermittent in nature and continue to face growing siting and permitting challenges.

除了與天氣相關的電力中斷日益頻繁和嚴重之外，對氣候變遷的立法和監管反應也對電網產生影響。在供應方面，相對於傳統的基荷熱源，公用事業規模、太陽能和風能受到了激勵，但它們本質上是間歇性的，並且繼續面臨日益增長的選址和許可挑戰。

At the same time, demand is increasing as electrification trends are accelerating around heating, cooking and transportation and power-hungry data center and telecom infrastructure continues to rapidly build out. These changes are creating significant challenges as utilities and grid operators are struggling to reliably match supply and demand, particularly during periods of extreme heat during the summer and cold during the winter.

同時，隨著暖氣、烹飪和交通領域的電氣化趨勢加速，以及高耗電的資料中心和電信基礎設施的持續快速建設，需求也不斷增加。這些變化帶來了重大挑戰，因為公用事業和電網營運商正在努力可靠地匹配供需，特別是在夏季酷熱和冬季寒冷的時期。

In its 2023 long-term reliability assessment, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NERC, continued to warn of the elevated risk of resource shortfalls across the majority of the U.S. and Canada. As key forecasts around supply availability and future electricity peak demand are creating a higher risk of imbalance, leading to potential outages more so than any time in recent history.

北美電力可靠性公司 (NERC) 在 2023 年長期可靠性評估中繼續警告美國和加拿大大部分地區資源短缺的風險加大。由於對供應可用性和未來電力高峰需求的關鍵預測正在造成更高的不平衡風險，從而導致潛在的停電比近代歷史上任何時候都更加嚴重。

As a result of these factors, we expect there will continue to be significant opportunities for our portfolio of power resiliency and energy efficiency solutions well into the future. Specifically for the home standby generator category, we believe a massive penetration opportunity still remains. As only 6.25% of the addressable market of single-family unattached homes greater than $150,000 in value in the U.S. had a home standby generator installed at the end of 2023.

由於這些因素，我們預計我們的電源彈性和能源效率解決方案組合將在未來繼續存在重大機會。特別是對於家用備用發電機類別，我們認為仍然存在巨大的滲透機會。到 2023 年底，在美國價值超過 15 萬美元的單戶獨立住宅的潛在市場中，只有 6.25% 安裝了家用備用發電機。

Furthermore, every 1% of incremental penetration is worth approximately $3 billion of market value. And with a market share greater than 70%, we believe Generac is incredibly well positioned to continue to lead the commercialization of this important product category. These same mega trends create significant opportunities for our global C&I products and solutions as businesses are also concerned about navigating power reliability issues and volatile energy prices.

此外，每增加 1% 的滲透率就相當於約 30 億美元的市場價值。憑藉超過 70% 的市場份額，我們相信 Generac 處於非常有利的位置，能夠繼續引領這一重要產品類別的商業化。這些同樣的大趨勢為我們的全球工商業產品和解決方案創造了重大機遇，因為企業也關心如何解決電力可靠性問題和波動的能源價格。

Near term, we are focused on further executing on our strategic vision, which we believe puts Generac in a unique position to help home and business owners solve for the energy-related challenges that lie ahead.

近期，我們的重點是進一步執行我們的策略願景，我們相信這使 Generac 處於獨特的地位，可以幫助家庭和企業主解決未來與能源相關的挑戰。

Now discussing our results in more detail. Fourth quarter home standby shipments increased approximately 10% from the prior year despite continued field inventory destocking and softer-than-expected power outage activity, which also weighed on home consultations during the quarter. However, in early 2024, severe winter storms pushed outage activity to record levels for the month of January. Power conservation notices sent to homeowners in select markets, driven by unseasonably cold temperatures and the related spike in power demand also contributed to consumer awareness of the vulnerability of the electrical grid.

現在更詳細地討論我們的結果。儘管持續的現場庫存去庫存和弱於預期的停電活動也給本季的家庭諮詢帶來壓力，但第四季度家庭備用出貨量仍比去年同期增長了約 10%。然而，2024 年初，嚴重的冬季風暴將 1 月的停電活動推至創紀錄水平。在異常寒冷的氣溫和相關的電力需求激增的推動下，向特定市場的房主發送的節電通知也促使消費者意識到電網的脆弱性。

As a result of these factors, home consultations in January of this year were an all-time record for the month. Our residential dealer count ended the fourth quarter at approximately 8,700 in line with the prior-year count. Dealer productivity trends further improved in the quarter, and we continued to execute on our initiatives to train non-dealer contractors, helping to increase overall installation capacity. Notably, close rates improved moderately during the fourth quarter, helping to offset the impact of lower power outage activity and softer home consultations.

由於這些因素，今年一月份的上門諮詢量創下了該月的歷史最高紀錄。截至第四季末，我們的住宅經銷商數量約為 8,700 家，與去年同期持平。本季經銷商生產力趨勢進一步改善，我們持續執行培訓非經銷商承包商的舉措，協助提升整體安裝能力。值得注意的是，第四季成交率略有改善，有助於抵消停電活動減少和家庭諮詢疲軟的影響。

More importantly, activations, which are a proxy for installations, were at an all-time quarterly record in the fourth quarter, increasing slightly from the previous record of the fourth quarter of 2022, providing further support for our belief that the home standby category is holding a new and higher level baseline level of demand. The record activations in the fourth quarter helped to further reduce the number of home standby generators in our distribution channels as we continue to under ship end market demand in the quarter.

更重要的是，作為安裝量代理的激活量在第四季度創下了歷史季度記錄，比2022 年第四季度的上一個記錄略有增加，這進一步支持了我們的信念，即家庭待機類別正在增長.保持新的、更高水準的需求基線水準。由於本季船端市場需求持續不足，第四季創紀錄的啟動量有助於進一步減少我們分銷管道中的家用備用發電機數量。

As certain regions and channels of the home standby market have returned to normal ordering patterns, the gap between shipments and activations further narrowed as we exited 2023, and we continue to expect overall shipments and activations to align later in the first quarter of this year. For 2024, we expect home standby sales to increase at a rate approximately in line with the mid-teens residential sales growth guidance disclosed in our press release this morning.

由於家庭備用市場的某些地區和通路已恢復正常訂購模式，隨著2023 年的結束，出貨量和啟動量之間的差距進一步縮小，我們繼續預計今年第一季晚些時候整體出貨量和激活量將保持一致。到 2024 年，我們預計家庭備用銷售的成長速度大約與我們今天上午新聞稿中揭露的十幾歲左右的住宅銷售成長指引一致。

Additionally, we expect home standby generator sales to increase on a year-over-year basis in each quarter throughout the year, assuming that power outage activity is in line with the historical baseline average. In addition to home standby generator shipments returning to growth, sales of our Residential Energy Technology Products and Solutions also increased during the fourth quarter as compared to the prior year, led by continued growth at Ecobee as our team there continued to gain share in the smart thermostat market by driving momentum with professional contractors and further expanding their presence with key retail partners.

此外，假設停電活動符合歷史基線平均值，我們預計全年每季的家用備用發電機銷售量將年增。除了家用備用發電機出貨量恢復成長外，我們的住宅能源技術產品和解決方案的銷售額在第四季度也比去年同期有所成長，這主要得益於Ecobee 的持續成長，因為我們的團隊在智慧發電領域的份額不斷增加透過與專業承包商推動勢頭並進一步擴大其與主要零售合作夥伴的關係，來開拓恆溫器市場。

The fourth quarter launch of Ecobee smart doorbell camera was well received by consumers and industry experts and continued to showcase their expertise in delivering consistently positive customer experiences. Ecobee finished 2023 with more than 3.5 million connected homes, giving us a large installed base of satisfied customers that we can cross-sell our products and service capabilities to as we work towards rolling out our residential energy technology ecosystem.

第四季度推出的 Ecobee 智慧門鈴攝影機受到了消費者和行業專家的好評，並繼續展示了他們在提供持續積極的客戶體驗方面的專業知識。到 2023 年，Ecobee 已擁有超過 350 萬個連網家庭，為我們提供了龐大的滿意客戶群，在我們努力推出住宅能源技術生態系統的同時，我們可以向他們交叉銷售我們的產品和服務能力。

We experienced another important event during the fourth quarter as we were awarded grants from the Department of Energy to utilize our residential energy technology solutions for resiliency focused programs in Puerto Rico and Massachusetts over the next several years. The program in Puerto Rico is expected to utilize our energy storage systems to provide clean energy independence for residents.

我們在第四季度經歷了另一件重要事件，因為我們獲得了能源部的撥款，以便在未來幾年內將我們的住宅能源技術解決方案用於波多黎各和馬薩諸塞州的以彈性為重點的項目。波多黎各的計劃預計將利用我們的儲能係統為居民提供獨立的清潔能源。

The program in Massachusetts is expected to include our energy storage systems, Ecobee Smart Thermostats and grid services capabilities, demonstrating our ability to integrate multiple technologies to support our home's energy needs, while also providing additional value for grid operators by aggregating and managing these distributed energy resources in a virtual power plant setting.

馬薩諸塞州的計劃預計將包括我們的能源儲存系統、Ecobee 智慧恆溫器和電網服務功能，展示我們整合多種技術來支援家庭能源需求的能力，同時還透過聚合和管理這些分散式能源為電網營運商提供額外價值虛擬發電廠環境中的資源。

As previously mentioned, we made an important minority investment in Wallbox during the fourth quarter, which provides for a future seat on the Wallbox Board of Directors and creates the opportunity for global commercial collaboration across our residential and C&I distribution networks. The partnership also brings future access to industry-leading bidirectional charging development, which we believe will play an increasingly critical role in our emerging residential energy technology ecosystem as the penetration of electric vehicles increases in the future.

如前所述，我們在第四季度對 Wallbox 進行了重要的少數股權投資，這為未來在 Wallbox 董事會提供了一個席位，並為我們的住宅和工商業分銷網絡之間的全球商業合作創造了機會。此次合作也為未來帶來了業界領先的雙向充電開發，我們相信，隨著未來電動車普及率的提高，這將在我們新興的住宅能源技術生態系統中發揮越來越重要的作用。

For 2024, we expect gross sales for residential energy technology products and services, including energy storage, energy management devices and services, connectivity and home EV charging solutions to be in a range of $325 million to $350 million, a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 25%. We continue to make meaningful investments in building out our residential energy ecosystem, including our next-generation energy storage system, which is expected to be commercially available later in the second half of this year.

到 2024 年，我們預計住宅能源技術產品和服務（包括能源儲存、能源管理設備和服務、連接和家庭電動車充電解決方案）的總銷售額將在 3.25 億美元至 3.5 億美元之間，年成長率約為25%。我們繼續在建造住宅能源生態系統方面進行有意義的投資，包括下一代儲能係統，預計今年下半年投入商用。

I would now like to provide some commentary on our commercial and industrial products. Global C&I product sales were approximately flat on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter and increased 19% for the full year 2023, to approximately $1.5 billion. Domestic C&I product sales declined modestly during the fourth quarter, as softness in shipments to the telecom and rental channels offset continued strength in sales to our industrial distributors and other direct customers for beyond standby applications.

我現在想對我們的商業和工業產品發表一些評論。第四季全球工商業產品銷售額年比基本持平，2023 年全年成長 19%，達到約 15 億美元。第四季國內工商業產品銷售小幅下降，因為電信和租賃通路的出貨量疲軟抵消了對工業分銷商和其他直接客戶的超待機應用銷售的持續強勁。

Shipments of C&I generators through our North American distributor channel again grew at a robust rate in the fourth quarter. Although order patterns in the second half of the year were impacted by extended product timelines, quoting activity remained resilient despite being off the peak levels experienced earlier in 2023. Shipments of natural gas generators used in applications beyond traditional standby projects increased at a very strong rate during the fourth quarter.

第四季透過我們的北美經銷商通路的工商業發電機出貨量再次強勁成長。儘管下半年的訂單模式受到產品交付週期延長的影響，但報價活動儘管已脫離2023 年早些時候的峰值水平，但仍保持彈性。用於傳統備用項目之外的應用的天然氣發電機的出貨量以非常強勁的速度成長第四季期間。

As the leading provider of natural gas generators, we continue to pioneer new market opportunities for beyond standby generator applications and other energy technology solutions in C&I end markets. We are working to facilitate the development of our increasingly comprehensive products and solutions in multi-asset applications, such as pairing our smart grid ready natural gas generators with our emerging C&I storage, connectivity, advanced controls and grid services platforms.

作為天然氣發電機的領導供應商，我們繼續為工商業終端市場的備用發電機應用和其他能源技術解決方案開拓新的市場機會。我們正在努力促進多資產應用中日益全面的產品和解決方案的開發，例如將我們的智慧電網天然氣發電機與我們新興的工商業儲存、連接、先進控制和電網服務平台配對。

While we believe this is an important long-term growth opportunity, today's higher interest rates are putting pressure on project timelines. And as a result, we expect shipments of products for beyond standby related applications to be negatively impacted in 2024. Sales to our national and independent rental equipment customers in the fourth quarter declined from the prior year as order patterns remained weaker than the stronger prior year comparisons.

雖然我們認為這是一個重要的長期成長機會，但當今較高的利率給了專案時間表壓力。因此，我們預計 2024 年超待機相關應用的產品出貨量將受到負面影響。第四季度對我們的國內和獨立租賃設備客戶的銷售較上年有所下降，因為訂單模式仍然弱於上年比較。

Despite the normal cyclical softness in this vertical that is impacting our overall 2024 expectations, we continue to believe that this end market has substantial runway for growth given the critical need for future infrastructure-related projects that leverage our products sold into the rental equipment channels. As expected, shipments to national telecom customers declined again during the quarter, particularly when compared to the very strong prior year fourth quarter level, as these customers further reduced capital expenditures. Given our current visibility, we expect shipments to telecom national accounts will remain soft in the coming quarters, weighing on our overall 2024 outlook.

儘管這一垂直領域正常的周期性疲軟正在影響我們對2024 年的總體預期，但我們仍然相信，鑑於未來基礎設施相關項目對利用我們銷售到租賃設備渠道的產品的迫切需求，該終端市場擁有巨大的成長空間。正如預期的那樣，本季向全國電信客戶的出貨量再次下降，特別是與去年第四季非常強勁的水平相比，因為這些客戶進一步減少了資本支出。鑑於我們目前的能見度，我們預計未來幾季電信國民帳的出貨量將保持疲軟，進而影響我們 2024 年的整體前景。

However, we have experienced these CapEx spending cycles over the 40 years we have been serving this market, and we believe the near-term cyclicality will not change the longer-term secular trend of increasing global tower and network hub counts and the increasingly critical nature of wireless communications and related services that are requiring significantly greater power reliability.

然而，在我們服務這個市場的 40 年裡，我們經歷了這些資本支出支出週期，我們相信短期週期性不會改變全球塔和網路樞紐數量增加的長期趨勢以及日益關鍵的性質需要更高電源可靠性的無線通訊和相關服務。

Internationally, total sales were pressured by lower intersegment sales, primarily related to declines in intercompany shipments from our Mexican operations to the domestic telecom market as well as lower shipments of portable generators in Europe as energy security concerns resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war continue to abate.

在國際上，總銷售額受到部門間銷售額下降的壓力，這主要與墨西哥業務至國內電信市場的公司間出貨量下降以及俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭引發的能源安全問題持續影響導致歐洲便攜式發電機出貨量下降有關。減弱。

Helping to offset this weakness, international net sales in other emerging markets such as India, the Middle East and East Asia grew at a strong rate during the quarter. International growth remains an important strategic focus for us moving forward with significant opportunities and continued geographic expansion and further penetration of underserved markets, as we implement the generic playbook across a growing global footprint.

印度、中東和東亞等其他新興市場的國際淨銷售額在本季強勁成長，有助於抵銷這一疲軟趨勢。隨著我們在不斷增長的全球足跡中實施通用策略，國際成長仍然是我們向前邁進的重要戰略重點，其中包括重大機會、持續的地域擴張以及對服務不足的市場的進一步滲透。

As disclosed in our press release this morning, we expect global C&I product sales to decline by approximately 10% for full year 2024, as weakness in shipments to certain direct telecom, rental and beyond standby customers is expected to more than offset growth in other regions and channels. In closing this morning, we believe our fourth quarter results reflect a return to positive momentum in our overall business as our residential product sales began to grow again, which should help to offset cyclical softness in certain C&I customers and end markets.

正如我們今天早上的新聞稿中所揭露的，我們預計2024 年全年全球工商業產品銷售額將下降約10%，因為某些直接電信、租賃和超越備用客戶的出貨量疲軟預計將遠遠抵消其他地區的成長和通路。截至今天早上收盤，我們認為第四季度業績反映了我們整體業務恢復積極勢頭，因為我們的住宅產品銷售開始再次增長，這應有助於抵消某些工商業客戶和終端市場的周期性疲軟。

We believe we are nearing the end of the excess field inventory overhang for home standby generators and expect to realize strong year-over-year growth in shipments of these products in 2024. This momentum gives us confidence in continuing to focus on building out our longer-term vision for both residential and C&I energy technology ecosystems.

我們相信，家用備用發電機的現場庫存過剩問題即將結束，並預計到 2024 年這些產品的出貨量將實現強勁的同比增長。這種勢頭使我們有信心繼續專注於建設更長期的產品。 -住宅和工商業能源技術生態系統的長期願景。

Our record cash flow performance in the fourth quarter is continued evidence of the earnings power of our business and gives us flexibility to prioritize further organic investments, execute on strategic acquisitions and opportunistically return capital to shareholders. Most importantly of all, the mega trends that support our longer-term opportunities remain firmly intact and our conviction in our powering a Smarter World enterprise strategy is as strong as ever.

我們第四季度創紀錄的現金流表現繼續證明了我們業務的盈利能力，並使我們能夠靈活地優先考慮進一步的有機投資、執行戰略收購以及機會性地向股東返還資本。最重要的是，支持我們長期機會的大趨勢仍然完好無損，我們對推動智慧世界企業策略的信念一如既往地堅定。

I'll now turn the call over to York to provide further details on our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results and our outlook for 2024. York?

我現在將把電話轉給約克，提供有關我們 2023 年第四季度和全年業績以及 2024 年展望的更多詳細信息。約克？

Thanks, Aaron. Looking at fourth quarter 2023 results in more detail. Net sales increased 1% to $1.06 billion during the fourth quarter of 2023 as compared to $1.05 billion in the prior year fourth quarter. The combination of favorable contributions from acquisitions and foreign currency had an approximate 1% impact on revenue growth during the quarter. Net sales for the full year 2023 decreased 12% to approximately $4.02 billion.

謝謝，亞倫。更詳細地了解 2023 年第四季的業績。 2023 年第四季淨銷售額成長 1%，達到 10.6 億美元，而去年第四季淨銷售額為 10.5 億美元。收購和外匯的有利貢獻相結合對該季度的收入成長產生了約 1% 的影響。 2023 年全年淨銷售額下降 12%，至約 40.2 億美元。

The combination of favorable contributions from acquisitions and foreign currency had an approximate 2% impact on revenue during the full year. Briefly looking at consolidated net sales for the fourth quarter by product class. Residential product sales increased 1% to $580 million as compared to $575 million in the prior year. Growth in residential product sales was driven by a strong 10% increase in shipments of home standby generators and a more modest increase in energy technology products led by Ecobee. This was partially offset by lower portable generator shipments in the U.S. and Europe, given a tough prior-year comparison.

收購和外匯的有利貢獻相結合，對全年收入產生了約 2% 的影響。簡要查看第四季度按產品類別劃分的綜合淨銷售額。住宅產品銷售額較前一年的 5.75 億美元成長 1%，達到 5.8 億美元。住宅產品銷售的成長是由家用備用發電機出貨量強勁成長 10% 以及以 Ecobee 為首的能源技術產品的溫和成長所推動的。與去年相比，美國和歐洲便攜式發電機出貨量的下降部分抵消了這一影響。

Commercial and industrial product sales for the fourth quarter of 2023 increased slightly to $363 million as compared to $361 million in the prior year quarter. Contributions from foreign currency and the REFU Storage acquisition contributed approximately 3% growth during the quarter. This core sales decline is due to weakness in sales to our domestic telecom and national equipment rental customers, partially offset by an increase in C&I product shipments to industrial distributors and direct customers for beyond standby applications, in addition to strengthening international sales into emerging markets.

2023 年第四季的商業和工業產品銷售額小幅成長至 3.63 億美元，去年同期為 3.61 億美元。外匯貢獻和 REFU Storage 收購為本季度貢獻了約 3% 的成長。核心銷售下降的原因是對國內電信和國家設備租賃客戶的銷售疲軟，部分被工業分銷商和超待機應用直接客戶的工商業產品出貨量增加以及新興市場國際銷售的加強所抵消。

Net sales for the other products and services increased approximately 6% to $120 million as compared to $113 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Core sales growth of 5% was primarily due to growth in our domestic C&I service offerings from our owned industrial distributors, aftermarket service parts, connectivity subscription revenue and Ecobee services. Gross profit margin was 36.5% compared to 32.7% in the prior year fourth quarter as a result of favorable sales mix, production efficiencies and lower raw material and logistics costs as supply chain challenges abated relative to the prior year.

其他產品和服務的淨銷售額成長約6%，達到1.2 億美元，而2022 年第四季為1.13 億美元。核心銷售額成長5%，主要是由於我們擁有的工業分銷商提供的國內C&I 服務產品的成長，售後服務零件、連接訂閱收入和 Ecobee 服務。毛利率為 36.5%，而上年第四季為 32.7%，得益於有利的銷售組合、生產效率以及供應鏈挑戰相對於上年有所減輕而降低的原材料和物流成本。

Operating expenses increased $2 million or 1% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. This increase was primarily driven by higher employee and marketing costs. The current year and prior year quarters also include approximately $11 million and $10 million, respectively, of onetime items that we believe are not indicative of our ongoing operations. See the reconciliation schedules in our earnings release for more information on these items.

與 2022 年第四季相比，營運費用增加了 200 萬美元，即 1%。這一增長主要是由於員工和行銷成本增加所致。本年度和上一年季度還分別包括約 1,100 萬美元和 1,000 萬美元的一次性項目，我們認為這些項目並不代表我們正在進行的營運。有關這些項目的更多信息，請參閱我們的收益發布中的調節表。

Adjusted EBITDA before deducting for noncontrolling interest, as defined in our earnings release, was $213 million or 20% of net sales in the fourth quarter as compared to $174 million or 16.6% of net sales in the prior year. For the full year 2023, adjusted EBITDA before deducting for non-controlling interest was $638 million or 15.9% of net sales as compared to $825 million or 18.1% in the prior year.

根據我們的收益發布中的定義，扣除非控股權益之前的調整後EBITDA 為2.13 億美元，佔第四季淨銷售額的20%，而上一年為1.74 億美元，佔淨銷售額的16.6% 。 2023 年全年，扣除非控制權益前的調整後 EBITDA 為 6.38 億美元，佔淨銷售額的 15.9%，而上一年為 8.25 億美元，佔淨銷售額的 18.1%。

I will now briefly discuss financial results for our two reporting segments. Domestic segment total sales, including intersegment sales, increased 1% to $891 million in the quarter as compared to $881 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $192 million, representing 21.6% of total sales as compared to $144 million in the prior year or 16.4%.

我現在將簡要討論我們兩個報告分部的財務表現。本季國內部門總銷售額（包括部門間銷售額）成長了 1%，達到 8.91 億美元，而去年同期為 8.81 億美元。該部門調整後 EBITDA 為 1.92 億美元，佔總銷售額的 21.6%，而前一年為 1.44 億美元，佔總銷售額的 16.4%。

For the full year 2023, Domestic segment total sales decreased 15% over the prior year to $3.32 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margins for the segment were 15.8% compared to 18.2% in the prior year full year. International segment total sales, including intersegment sales, decreased 13% to $190 million in the quarter as compared to $219 million in the prior year quarter, including an approximate 7% sales growth contribution from foreign currency and acquisitions, resulting in approximately 20% core total sales decline.

2023 年全年，國內業務總銷售額較前一年下降 15%，至 33.2 億美元。該部門調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 15.8%，而上年全年為 18.2%。本季國際部門總銷售額（包括部門間銷售額）下降13%，至1.9 億美元，去年同期為2.19 億美元，其中外幣和收購對銷售額成長的貢獻約為7%，佔核心總額的約20%銷量下降。

Adjusted EBITDA for the segment before deducting for non-controlling interests was $20.4 million or 10.7% of total sales as compared to $29.5 million or 13.5% in the prior year quarter. For the full year of 2023, International segment total sales increased 6% over the prior year to $838 million. Adjusted EBITDA margins for the segment before deducting for non-controlling interests were 13.7% of total sales during 2023 as compared to 13.8% in the prior year full year.

該部門在扣除非控股權益前的調整後 EBITDA 為 2,040 萬美元，佔總銷售額的 10.7%，而去年同期為 2,950 萬美元，佔總銷售額的 13.5%。 2023 年全年，國際部門總銷售額較上年成長 6%，達 8.38 億美元。在扣除非控股權益前，該部門調整後 EBITDA 利潤率佔 2023 年總銷售額的 13.7%，而上一年全年為 13.8%。

Now switching back to our financial performance for the fourth quarter of '23 on a consolidated basis, as disclosed in our earnings release, GAAP net income for the company in the quarter was $97 million as compared to $71 million for the fourth quarter of 2022. The current year net income includes approximately $5 million of additional interest expense compared to the prior year due to higher borrowings and interest rates.

現在回到我們 23 年第四季度的合併財務業績，正如我們在收益發布中披露的那樣，該公司本季度的 GAAP 淨利潤為 9700 萬美元，而 2022 年第四季度為 7100 萬美元。與上一年相比，本年度淨利潤包括由於借款和利率上升而產生的約500 萬美元的額外利息費用。

GAAP income taxes for the current year fourth quarter were $30 million or an effective tax rate of 23.7% as compared to $13.6 million or an effective tax rate of 15.5% for the prior year. The increase in effective tax rate was primarily driven by discrete tax benefits in the prior year quarter that did not repeat in the current year. Diluted net income per share for the company on a GAAP basis was $1.57 in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $0.83 in the prior year.

本年度第四季的 GAAP 所得稅為 3,000 萬美元，有效稅率為 23.7%，而前一年的 GAAP 所得稅為 1,360 萬美元，有效稅率為 15.5%。有效稅率的增加主要是由於上一季的離散稅收優惠在今年沒有重複。 2023 年第四季度，該公司以 GAAP 計算的稀釋每股淨利潤為 1.57 美元，而前一年為 0.83 美元。

The strong year-over-year increase in net earnings per share relative to growth in net income was primarily driven by an unfavorable $18.4 million redeemable non-controlling interest redemption value adjustment that was recorded in the prior year period, as well as a lower share count in the current year period.

每股淨收益相對於淨利潤成長的強勁同比增長主要是由於去年同期記錄的不利的 1,840 萬美元可贖回非控股權益贖回價值調整，以及較低的份額計入本年度期間。

Adjusted net income for the company, as defined in our earnings release, was $126 million in the current year quarter or $2.07 per share. This compares to adjusted net income of $113 million in the prior year or $1.78 per share.

根據我們的收益發布中的定義，該公司本季調整後淨利潤為 1.26 億美元，即每股 2.07 美元。相比之下，上一年調整後淨利為 1.13 億美元，即每股 1.78 美元。

Cash flow from operations was $317 million as compared to $101 million in the prior year fourth quarter, and free cash flow, as defined in our earnings release, was an all-time quarterly record of $266 million as compared to $80 million in the same quarter last year. The significant improvement in free cash flow was primarily due to a $144 million reduction in inventory during the quarter and higher operating earnings. This was partially offset by higher capital expenditures during the current year quarter.

營運現金流為 3.17 億美元，而去年第四季為 1.01 億美元，根據我們的收益發布中的定義，自由現金流為 2.66 億美元，創歷史季度記錄，而去年同期為 8,000 萬美元去年。自由現金流的顯著改善主要是由於本季庫存減少了 1.44 億美元以及營業利潤增加。這被本季較高的資本支出部分抵銷。

Total debt outstanding at the end of the quarter was $1.58 billion, resulting in a gross debt leverage ratio at the end of the fourth quarter of 2.5x on an as-reported basis. Additionally, during the fourth quarter, we repurchased approximately 1.3 million shares of our common stock for approximately $151 million.

本季末未償債務總額為 15.8 億美元，導致第四季末的總債務槓桿率為報告的 2.5 倍。此外，在第四季度，我們以約 1.51 億美元的價格回購了約 130 萬股普通股。

As disclosed in our press release this morning, the company's Board of Directors has approved a new stock repurchase program that allows for the repurchase of up to $500 million of our common stock over a 24-month period, replacing the remaining balance on the previous program. For the full year, cash flow from operations was an all-time record of $522 million as compared to $59 million in the prior year. And free cash flow, as defined in our earnings release, was $396 million as compared to minus $24 million in 2022.

正如我們今天早上的新聞稿中所披露的，公司董事會已批准一項新的股票回購計劃，允許在 24 個月內回購最多 5 億美元的普通股，取代先前計劃的剩餘餘額。全年營運現金流創歷史新高，達 5.22 億美元，而前一年為 5,900 萬美元。我們的財報中定義的自由現金流為 3.96 億美元，而 2022 年為負 2,400 萬美元。

We strategically deployed approximately $153 million of capital in 2023, with the acquisition of REFU Storage Systems, the purchase of the remaining 20% minority ownership interest in Pramac and the minority investment in Wallbox. In addition, capital expenditures totaled $129 million to support additional capacity for future organic growth.

我們在 2023 年策略性地部署了約 1.53 億美元的資本，收購了 REFU Storage Systems、購買了 Pramac 剩餘 20% 的少數股權以及對 Wallbox 的少數投資。此外，資本支出總計 1.29 億美元，用於支持未來有機成長的額外產能。

We also opportunistically repurchased approximately 2.2 million shares of our common stock for $252 million during the second half of the year. Moving forward, we will continue to operate within our disciplined and balanced capital allocation framework as we accelerate our powering a Smarter World enterprise strategy and execute other shareholder value-enhancing opportunities.

今年下半年，我們還趁機回購了約 220 萬股普通股，價值 2.52 億美元。展望未來，我們將繼續在嚴格、平衡的資本配置框架內運營，加速推動智慧世界企業策略並執行其他股東價值提升機會。

With that, I will now provide further comments on our new outlook for 2024. As disclosed in our press release this morning, we're initiating 2024 net sales guidance that anticipates a return to growth for the full year period. This increase is expected to be led by higher home standby generator sales as shipments are projected to be more closely aligned with activations during 2024. We also expect our residential energy technology sales to grow as we expand distribution and launch our next-generation energy storage system later in 2024, and we continue to drive strong growth with our Ecobee products and solutions.

接下來，我將就我們 2024 年的新展望提供進一步的評論。正如我們今天上午的新聞稿中所披露的，我們正在啟動 2024 年淨銷售指導，預計全年將恢復成長。這一增長預計將由家庭備用發電機銷量的增加帶動，因為預計出貨量將與2024 年的激活情況更加一致。我們還預計，隨著我們擴大分銷和推出下一代儲能係統，我們的住宅能源技術銷售也會成長。在 2024 年晚些時候，我們將繼續利用 Ecobee 產品和解決方案推動強勁成長。

Overall, we expect residential product sales to grow in the mid-teens range for 2024. However, in our C&I product category, cyclical pressures for certain telecom, rental and beyond standby customers, are expected to be more than offset -- are expected to more than offset continued growth in broader C&I end markets around the world. As a result, we are projecting global C&I sales to decline by approximately 10% in 2024 compared to the prior year. As a result of these factors, we expect consolidated net sales for the full year to increase between 3% to 7% as compared to the prior year, which includes a slight favorable benefit from foreign currency.

總體而言，我們預計 2024 年住宅產品銷售額將在十幾歲左右增長。然而，在我們的工商業產品類別中，某些電信、租賃和備用客戶的周期性壓力預計將被抵消——預計遠遠抵消了全球更廣泛的工商業終端市場的持續成長。因此，我們預計 2024 年全球工商業銷售額將比上年下降約 10%。由於這些因素，我們預計全年綜合淨銷售額將比上年增長 3% 至 7%，其中包括外匯帶來的輕微利好。

Importantly, this guidance assumes a level of power outage activity during the year in line with the longer-term baseline average. Consistent with our historical approach, this outlook does not assume the benefit of a major power outage event during the year, such as a Category 3 or higher landed hurricane or major winter storm, which we believe could add $50 million to $100 million of sales.

重要的是，本指南假設一年中的停電活動水準與長期基線平均值一致。與我們的歷史方法一致，這項展望並未假設年內重大停電事件的好處，例如 3 級或以上登陸颶風或重大冬季風暴，我們認為這可能會增加 5,000 萬至 1 億美元的銷售額。

As a result of this top line outlook, we expect sales to be in line with normal historical seasonality, resulting in overall net sales in the first half being approximately 45% weighted and sales in the second half being approximately 55% weighted. Specifically for the first quarter, we expect overall net sales to be nearly flat from the prior year first quarter, with solid growth in residential product sales offset by a decline in C&I product shipments. With Q1 2024 being the seasonal low point of the year, we expect sales for each product class to increase sequentially throughout the year.

基於這一頂線展望，我們預期銷售額將與正常的歷史季節性相符，導致上半年整體淨銷售額的權重約為 45%，下半年的銷售額權重約為 55%。具體到第一季度，我們預計整體淨銷售額將與去年第一季基本持平，住宅產品銷售的穩健成長被工商業產品出貨量的下降所抵銷。由於 2024 年第一季是全年的季節性低點，我們預計全年各產品類別的銷售額將持續成長。

Looking at our gross margin expectations for the full year 2024, we expect the realization of lower input costs and favorable mix impact from higher home standby sales volumes to drive continued year-over-year improvement throughout the year. As a result, we expect gross margins to increase by approximately 300 basis points for the full year as compared to 2023.

考慮到我們對 2024 年全年毛利率的預期，我們預計投入成本的降低和家庭備用銷售增加帶來的有利組合影響將推動全年持續年比改善。因此，我們預計全年毛利率將比 2023 年增加約 300 個基點。

From a seasonality perspective, we expect gross margins to increase by approximately 350 basis points on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter to approximately 34% to 34.5% due to favorable sales mix impact from higher home standby shipments and realization of lower input costs. These factors are also expected to result in sequential gross margin improvement into the second half of the year, with second half gross margins projected in the 38% range.

從季節性角度來看，我們預計第一季毛利率將年增約350 個基點，達到約34% 至34.5%，原因是家庭待機出貨量增加和實現較低的銷售收入帶來有利的銷售組合影響。投入成本。預計這些因素也將導致今年下半年毛利率季比改善，預計下半年毛利率將在 38% 的範圍內。

With respect to operating expenses, we continue to invest heavily in the resources needed to position our business for longer-term growth in new and existing markets, maintaining a heavy focus on supporting innovation, and executing our strategic initiatives across the enterprise. As a result of these investments, we expect operating expenses as a percentage of sales to be approximately 23% for the full year 2024.

在營運費用方面，我們繼續大力投資所需的資源，以使我們的業務在新市場和現有市場實現長期成長，保持高度專注於支持創新，並在整個企業內執行我們的策略性舉措。由於這些投資，我們預計 2024 年全年營運費用將佔銷售額的百分比約為 23%。

We expect to leverage these costs as we sequentially grow from first half to second half, helping to improve our EBITDA margins throughout the year. As a result of our gross margin and operating expense expectations, adjusted EBITDA margins before deducting for non-controlling interests are expected to be approximately 16.5% to 17.5% for the full year, compared to 15.9% in 2023.

我們預計，隨著上半年到下半年的持續成長，我們將利用這些成本，幫助提高全年的 EBITDA 利潤率。根據我們的毛利率和營業費用預期，扣除非控股權益之前的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計全年約為 16.5% 至 17.5%，而 2023 年為 15.9%。

From a seasonality perspective, we expect adjusted EBITDA margins to improve significantly as we move throughout the year. Specifically, regarding the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be the lowest for the year in the mid-12% range, and then improved sequentially throughout the year, returning to approximately 20% in the fourth quarter. As a result, second half adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be nearly 600 basis points higher than the first half margins.

從季節角度來看，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將隨著全年的變化而顯著改善。具體來說，就第一季而言，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將在 12% 左右的區間內創年內最低水平，然後全年持續改善，第四季度恢復至 20% 左右。因此，下半年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將比上半年高出近 600 個基點。

Additionally, as Aaron discussed, we continue to make significant investments in our residential energy technology products and solutions to capitalize on the opportunities presented by these robust long-term growth markets. As a result, we currently expect residential energy technology to dilute our EBITDA margins by approximately 350 to 400 basis points for the full year 2024, similar to the level of dilution experienced in 2023.

此外，正如亞倫所討論的，我們繼續對住宅能源技術產品和解決方案進行大量投資，以利用這些強勁的長期成長市場帶來的機會。因此，我們目前預計住宅能源技術將在 2024 年全年將我們的 EBITDA 利潤率稀釋約 350 至 400 個基點，與 2023 年的稀釋水準類似。

As is our normal practice, we're also providing additional guidance details to assist with modeling adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow for the full year 2024. Importantly, we arrive at appropriate estimates for adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share, add back items should be reflected net of tax using our expected effective tax rate. For 2024, our GAAP effective tax rate is expected to be between 25% to 26% as compared to 25.2% full year GAAP tax rate for 2023.

按照我們的正常做法，我們還提供了額外的指導細節，以幫助對2024 年全年的調整後每股收益和自由現金流進行建模。重要的是，我們對調整後淨利潤和調整後每股收益進行了適當的估計，補充回溯項目應使用我們預期的有效稅率反映稅後淨額。 2024 年，我們的 GAAP 有效稅率預計在 25% 至 26% 之間，而 2023 年全年 GAAP 稅率為 25.2%。

We expect interest expense to be approximately $85 million to $90 million, assuming no additional term loan or revolver principal prepayments during the year, and assuming sulfur rates declined throughout 2024 in line with market expectations. Our capital expenditures are projected to be approximately 3% of our forecasted net sales for the year at the high end of our historical range as we add incremental C&I manufacturing capacity and execute other projects to support future growth expectations.

假設年內沒有額外的定期貸款或循環本金預付款，並假設 2024 年硫磺費率按照市場預期下降，我們預計利息支出約為 8,500 萬至 9,000 萬美元。隨著我們增加工商業製造產能並執行其他項目來支持未來的成長預期，我們的資本支出預計將佔今年預測淨銷售額的 3% 左右，處於歷史範圍的高端。

Depreciation expense is forecast to be approximately $70 million to $73 million in 2024, given our assumed CapEx guidance. GAAP intangible amortization expenses in 2024 is expected to be approximately $95 million to $100 million during the year. Stock compensation expense is expected to be between $55 million to $60 million for the year. Operating and free cash flow generation is expected to be disproportionately weighted toward the second half of the year in 2024, similar to 2023. For the full year, we expect free cash flow conversion from adjusted net income to be strong at approximately 100% as we continue to monetize working capital builds of prior years.

根據我們假設的資本支出指導，預計 2024 年折舊費用約為 7,000 萬至 7,300 萬美元。 2024 年 GAAP 無形攤銷費用預計約 9,500 萬至 1 億美元。今年的股票補償費用預計在 5,500 萬美元至 6,000 萬美元之間。與 2023 年類似，預計 2024 年下半年營運現金流和自由現金流產生的權重將不成比例。對於全年，我們預計調整後淨利潤的自由現金流轉換將強勁，約為 100%，因為我們繼續將前幾年增加的營運資金貨幣化。

Our full year weighted average diluted share count is expected to decrease to approximately 61 million shares as compared to 62.1 million shares in 2023, which reflects the share repurchases that were completed in the latter half of 2023.

我們的全年加權平均稀釋股份數量預計將從 2023 年的 6,210 萬股減少至約 6,100 萬股，這反映了 2023 年下半年完成的股票回購。

Finally, this 2024 outlook does not reflect potential additional acquisitions or share repurchases that could drive incremental shareholder value. This concludes our prepared remarks. At this time, we'd like to open up the call for questions.

最後，2024 年的展望並未反映出可能增加股東價值的潛在額外收購或股票回購。我們準備好的演講到此結束。此時，我們想開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from George Gianarikas with Canaccord Genuity.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 George Gianarikas。

Would you just maybe focus on the HSB or the residential growth assumed for 2024 and mid-teens. Can you just help us understand what the underlying activation growth is that buttresses that guidance for the year?

您是否可能只關注 HSB 或 2024 年和十幾歲左右的假設住宅增長。您能否幫助我們了解支持今年指導的潛在活化成長是什麼？

Yes. George, I mean, we're not expecting a decline. I mean, obviously, in the current environment with a softer consumer tied to big-ticket discretionary. We didn't want to take an aggressive assumption on the activation rate assumptions. Obviously, what we said in the prepared remarks, home standby, we expect to grow somewhere in that mid-teens range year-over-year, similar to the overall residential category that we guided that way.

是的。喬治，我的意思是，我們預計不會出現下降。我的意思是，顯然，在當前的環境下，消費者對大件非必需品的依賴程度較低。我們不想對激活率假設採取激進的假設。顯然，我們在準備好的評論中所說的家庭備用，我們預計將同比增長在十幾歲左右，類似於我們以這種方式引導的整體住宅類別。

Again, a lot of that is the fact that the destock of field inventory in 2023, while some of that is going to continue here in Q1, that will abate here in Q2 and for the rest of the year. So a good chunk of that year-over-year growth is the fact that we don't have that overhang on the field inventory, but we aren't assuming that the home standby market is declining, some modest growth.

同樣，很大程度上是因為 2023 年現場庫存的去庫存雖然其中一些將在第一季繼續，但在第二季和今年剩餘時間內將會減少。因此，年成長的很大一部分是因為我們的現場庫存沒有過剩，但我們並不認為家庭備用市場正在下降，而是有一些溫和的成長。

It's kind of holding that new and higher baseline assumption that we talked about. In the absence of kind of power outage activity being above the baseline, we guide with it in line. So I think in the prepared remarks, we even said we don't include any assumptions for major outages, and that could include -- that could drive additional opportunities, both with home standby and portable generators actually.

這有點像我們討論過的新的、更高的基準假設。在沒有出現高於基線的停電活動的情況下，我們將與其保持一致。因此，我認為在準備好的發言中，我們甚至說過，我們不包括任何重大停電的假設，這可能包括——這可能會帶來更多機會，實際上包括家庭備用發電機和便攜式發電機。

But the assumption, I think York's right, with -- in kind of big ticket discretionary items in environment, where rates remain somewhat elevated here, we think that consumer demand could remain kind of flattish and kind of at that baseline level.

但我認為約克的假設是正確的，在大宗非必需品的環境中，利率仍然有所升高，我們認為消費者需求可能會保持平穩，並保持在基準水平。

Our next question comes from Michael Halloran with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Halloran 和 Baird。

Could you talk about the energy tech side of things, obviously, the 25% growth? Maybe a little better understanding what you could be versus the other products? But more importantly, maybe talk about the expectations for how you're expecting the new product launches?

您能談談能源技術方面的問題嗎？顯然是 25% 的成長？與其他產品相比，也許可以更了解您的能力？但更重要的是，也許可以談談您對新產品發布的期望？

And I don't know, if rebranding is the right word, but certainly, the newer pieces that you're going to be bringing to market. How do you expect that to start impacting the revenue line? Obviously, heard York's comment on the margin impact year-over-year, the dilution there, but more just kind of a revenue thought process and how you're thinking about the cadencing of that being launched into the market?

我不知道「品牌重塑」這個詞是否正確，但可以肯定的是，您將把新產品推向市場。您預計這將如何開始影響收入線？顯然，聽到約克對同比利潤影響、稀釋程度的評論，但更多的是一種收入思考過程，以及您如何考慮將其推向市場的節奏？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. I mean a lot of the new products that we talked about. I mean we're in development right now and have been for the better part of 2023, actually, because we're going to make sure we get it right, and these are the products that are going to be at the top of the market, if not market leading, both for the energy storage products, which our next-generation energy storage devices, which should hit the market here later this year kind of as we exit Q3 and get into Q4.

是的。謝謝，麥克。我的意思是我們談論的許多新產品。我的意思是，我們現在正在開發中，實際上在 2023 年的大部分時間裡都在開發中，因為我們將確保我們做對了，這些產品將成為市場的頂級產品如果不是市場領先的話，無論是儲能產品還是我們的下一代儲能設備，當我們退出第三季並進入第四季時，它應該會在今年稍後上市。

So we really only have a very modest amount of top line allocated to that launch. We think it will get more traction. We have a lot of work to do, obviously, you call it rebranding, building out the distribution, regaining the confidence of the market with those installers in particular. We've been doing a lot of work there, and I think we're making headway, but we need to get the new products into market.

因此，我們實際上只為該發布分配了非常少量的頂線。我們認為它將獲得更多關注。顯然，我們有很多工作要做，你稱之為品牌重塑、建立分銷管道、重新獲得市場的信心，特別是那些安裝商的信心。我們在那裡做了很多工作，我認為我們正在取得進展，但我們需要將新產品推向市場。

And so, there's not a ton of growth on that side. Ecobee, we do see continued growth there. They continue to take share. That has been just a fantastic asset for us, not only in just its growth curve, but also just the technology and the competencies that they bring to us relative to what we're trying to achieve with the user experience, right?

因此，這方面沒有太多成長。 Ecobee，我們確實看到了那裡的持續成長。他們繼續佔據份額。這對我們來說是一筆奇妙的資產，不僅體現在其成長曲線上，還體現在它們為我們帶來的技術和能力（相對於我們試圖透過用戶體驗實現的目標而言），對嗎？

So we want everything we're calling it kind of single pane of glass is kind of our reference to it. But putting everything on the same platform. We've got -- we've acquired and/or have a lot of technologies organically that we've got products and solutions around, but bringing it all together to work seamlessly and synchronously, that is a lot of work. And so behind the scenes, as we introduce each new product, so this next-generation storage device, when we get to the micro inverter products, which will hit the market early next year in '25, those products will all be -- they will all operate within the single pane of glass platform.

因此，我們希望我們所說的一切都像單一玻璃一樣，是我們對它的引用。但把一切都放在同一個平台上。我們已經有機地獲得和/或擁有很多技術，我們已經擁有產品和解決方案，但是將它們整合在一起以無縫和同步地工作，這是大量的工作。因此，在幕後，當我們推出每款新產品時，下一代儲存設備，當我們談到微型逆變器產品時，該產品將於明年初在 25 年上市，這些產品都將是——它們所有操作都將在單一玻璃平台內進行。

You've seen some evidence how we've started to weave pieces together already this year. We've got home standby generators now visible. If a homeowner has an Ecobee thermostat, you can see the status of your home standby generator. If that generator happens to be running on propane, you can see the status of your propane fuel level, if you have a tank utility monitoring device. So all of these pieces are starting to get woven together and integrated.

您已經看到了我們今年如何開始將各個部分編織在一起的一些證據。我們現在可以看到家用備用發電機了。如果房主擁有 Ecobee 恆溫器，您可以查看家庭備用發電機的狀態。如果發電機恰好使用丙烷運行，並且您有油箱公用設施監控設備，則可以查看丙烷燃油液位的狀態。因此，所有這些部分都開始交織在一起並整合在一起。

We're going to do the same with the Wallbox products as those roll into the market. So again, building all that out, I think Ecobee has been just a tremendous -- they have a great team, and very adept at what they do. And on top of the top-notch products that they're in market with, with the smart thermostats and their doorbell camera, they're able to help kind of integrate this ecosystem and really bring it to life.

當 Wallbox 產品進入市場時，我們也將採取相同的做法。再說一次，建立這一切，我認為 Ecobee 是一個很棒的團隊——他們擁有一支很棒的團隊，並且非常擅長他們所做的事情。除了他們在市場上推出的一流產品（智慧恆溫器和門鈴攝影機）之外，他們還能夠幫助整合這個生態系統並真正將其變為現實。

One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Jeff Hammond。

This is David Tarantino on for Jeff. Could you maybe give us a little bit more color on where you see the home standby channel inventories versus the normal levels? It sounds like there's some lingering destocking into the first quarter. So maybe how much do we have left? And maybe on that, could you give us an update on the $300 million tailwind from the absence of destocking? Do we get all of that this upcoming year?

我是大衛·塔倫提諾為傑夫配音。您能否給我們更多關於家庭備用頻道庫存與正常水平的信息？聽起來第一季的去庫存行動一直揮之不去。那也許我們還剩下多少？也許在這一點上，您能否向我們介紹一下由於沒有去庫存而帶來的 3 億美元順風車的最新情況？來年我們能得到所有這些嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Dave. So as we said, kind of in line with our expectations, we were getting very close to kind of wiping out that field inventory. We'll call it an abnormal excess field inventory. Look, this has been a painful process over the last 6 quarters. We overproduced ahead of the market demand, got ahead of ourselves, and we just -- we've been working that down. We were very close to -- we saw a kind of normal order pattern starting to return in Q3 even and into Q4 for sure.

是的。謝謝，戴夫。因此，正如我們所說，與我們的預期一致，我們非常接近消除現場庫存。我們稱之為異常過剩現場庫存。看，過去 6 個季度這是一個痛苦的過程。我們生產過剩，超越了市場需求，超越了自己，我們只是——我們一直在努力降低這一點。我們非常接近——我們看到一種正常的訂單模式開始在第三季甚至第四季開始回歸。

And then we believe that most of that is going to be gone as we exit Q1. You're always going to have pockets, markets, channels, customers that have field inventory levels that are probably higher than normal. That has always existed. If you don't get an event in a market or you've got maybe a channel that's underperforming to other channels. I mean, you can have that happen, and that's just normal cadence. So I would say that the big excess field inventory level, that thing we've been talking about here for 6 quarters nonstop. We believe, is going to be largely gone by the end of Q1.

然後我們相信，隨著我們退出第一季度，其中大部分都會消失。你總是會有口袋、市場、通路、客戶的現場庫存水準可能高於正常水準。那一直存在。如果您沒有在市場中舉辦活動，或者您的管道可能表現不如其他管道。我的意思是，你可以讓這種情況發生，這只是正常的節奏。所以我想說的是，現場庫存水準嚴重過剩，這是我們連續六個季度一直在談論的事情。我們相信，到第一季末，這種情況將基本消失。

We definitely saw it come down in Q4 and we're watching it come down here to date in Q1, and we're seeing it be in a good spot by the end of the quarter. And then I think your second part was about the $300 million effectively undershipping the market in 2023.

我們確實看到它在第四季度有所下降，並且我們正在觀察它在第一季迄今為止的下降，並且我們看到它在本季度末處於良好位置。然後我認為你的第二部分是關於 2023 年市場實際出貨量不足的 3 億美元。

That was the estimate we gave at our Investor Day. That number is actually holding as we finish the year. So that's what we undershipped the market in '23 for home standby. Now obviously, we won't get all that back in 2024 as a tailwind, given that Q1, we're still working things down here. But you'll get a chunk of that as a tailwind to growth. And again, we talked about that, I think, on the first question.

這是我們在投資者日給出的估計。截至今年年底，這個數字實際上仍然保持不變。這就是我們在 23 年家庭待機市場上的出貨量不足的情況。現在顯然，考慮到第一季度，我們不會在 2024 年將所有這些作為順風車回來，我們仍在繼續努力。但你會從中得到很大一部分作為成長的推動力。我想，我們在第一個問題上再次討論了這一點。

Our next question comes from Brian Drab with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自布萊恩·德拉布和威廉·布萊爾。

I was wondering, if you could -- can you give any more color or quantification around what's happening with the IHCs year-over-year sequentially?

我想知道，您能否對 IHC 逐年發生的情況提供更多資訊或量化？

Yes, sure, Brian. So a couple of things. We saw IHCs actually soften in Q4, and that really largely aligns with the power outage environment was well below the kind of baseline average. So in fact, it was the lowest Q4. I think in our prepared remarks, we said since 2015. So pretty low environment for outages. And that kind of fit with a good chunk of the second half, right?

是的，當然，布萊恩。有幾件事。我們看到 IHC 實際上在第四季度出現疲軟，這在很大程度上與停電環境相符，遠低於基線平均水平。所以事實上，這是第四季最低的。我想在我們準備好的發言中，我們自 2015 年以來就說過。中斷的環境相當低。這與下半場的大部分時間都很契合，對吧？

We didn't see a lot of activity, certainly no major activity in throughout the year last year. But in spite of that, IHCs were up on the year, total count. So in spite of the softness in the fourth quarter. And probably more importantly, January, we got off to a pretty hot start. There was quite a bit of weather localized quite a bit of outage activity. And then more importantly, I think one thing that we are starting to see, which is really interesting in the category, normally, the category has traded on outage activity.

我們沒有看到很多活動，去年全年當然沒有重大活動。但儘管如此，IHC 總數仍較今年增加。因此，儘管第四季表現疲軟。也許更重要的是，一月份，我們有了一個非常好的開始。相當多的天氣導致了相當多的停電活動。更重要的是，我認為我們開始看到一件事，這在該類別中非常有趣，通常該類別在停電活動上進行交易。

But what we're also seeing is evidenced now in markets where outages haven't taken place, but where media reports and other information is flowing into the market around potential outages, right? So these notifications of power shortfalls that some utilities had to send out in January because of the extreme cold weather that actually drove IHC activity. Without actually having -- it didn't really result in a tremendous amount of outage activity, but it -- it drove IHC activity. So it's kind of -- I don't want to say there's a disconnect now, but looking purely at outage activity is probably not the only way to look at IHC, which are -- that's our proxy for sales leads.

但我們現在也看到，在尚未發生停電的市場中，但媒體報道和其他資訊正在圍繞潛在停電流入市場，對嗎？因此，由於極端寒冷的天氣實際上推動了 IHC 活動，一些公用事業公司不得不在一月份發出這些電力短缺通知。實際上，它並沒有導致大量的中斷活動，但它推動了 IHC 活動。所以，我不想說現在存在脫節，但純粹觀察停電活動可能不是觀察 IHC 的唯一方法，這是我們銷售線索的代表。

I would just -- one other kernel to this. We also continue to see a modest improvement in close rates in the fourth quarter for IHC. So kind of -- we've talked about this recovery story on close rates. We kind of had assumed that close rates were going to flatten out after Q2 last year. And we saw that initially, but then we've actually started to see some of those close rates improve. And that's encouraging because I think it speaks to the continued not only interest in the product, but obviously, the conversion of prospects into buyers.

我只想——另一個核心。我們也繼續看到 IHC 第四季的成交率略有改善。就這樣——我們已經討論了接近利率的復甦故事。我們曾假設去年第二季後收盤價將趨於穩定。我們最初看到了這一點，但後來我們實際上開始看到其中一些成交率有所改善。這是令人鼓舞的，因為我認為這不僅顯示了人們對產品的持續興趣，而且顯然也顯示了潛在客戶向買家的轉變。

So I think that's -- those are encouraging signs. There are green shoots, if you will, and lead us to have, I think, gives us anyway confidence in certainly gives us confidence in the guide that we gave this morning around the consumer power products.

所以我認為這些都是令人鼓舞的跡象。如果你願意的話，現在已經出現了萌芽，並且引導我們擁有，我認為，無論如何，這給了我們信心，當然也給了我們對今天早上我們圍繞消費電力產品提供的指南的信心。

Our next question comes from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer & Co.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的克里斯多福‧格林 (Christopher Glynn)。

Grant me a clarification before my question. Did you say 45%, 55% first half, second half split for sales?

在我提問之前請先澄清一下。你是說上半年、下半年銷售分成45%、55%嗎？

Yes, that's correct.

對，那是正確的。

Okay. Great. For curious what you have baked in for close rates following up on that topic. And last quarter, you mentioned October saw a nice bump. Did October account for all of the 4Q improvement? Or was each month in October better than the quarters that preceded it? I mean, each month in the fourth quarter?

好的。偉大的。出於好奇您對這個主題的後續價格有何關注。上個季度，您提到十月份出現了不錯的成長。 10 月是否佔了第四季的全部改善？或者十月份的每個月都比之前的季度更好嗎？我的意思是，第四季的每個月？

Yes. Thanks, Chris. I don't have the pacing each month for the quarter, to be honest. I just all I had, you're correct. We did say on the Q3 call that October, we saw some improvement. It was -- it's pretty -- it was modest, but we like that it was improving, not going the other way. For the quarter, it was up again modestly. So I think you can assume that it was -- it didn't drop off because that would have set us negative for the quarter.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。老實說，我沒有該季度每個月的進度。我只是我所擁有的一切，你是對的。我們確實在 10 月的第三季電話會議上說過，我們看到了一些改善。它是——它很漂亮——它是適度的，但我們喜歡它正在改進，而不是走向相反的方向。本季再次小幅上漲。所以我認為你可以假設它沒有下降，因為這會使我們本季的業績為負。

So again, I don't have the pacing, apologize for each month of the quarter. But the assumption to your question, the assumption for 2024, we are assuming close rates kind of continue on that modest improvement pace. We've got a long way to go to get back to the kind of pre-pandemic or that kind of pandemic-induced high, if you will. We kind of hit that. I think the peak, Chris, was, we say, Q3 of 2020 is where we kind of peaked out.

再說一次，我沒有節奏，為該季度的每個月道歉。但對於你的問題的假設，即 2024 年的假設，我們假設收盤利率繼續保持溫和的改善速度。如果你願意的話，我們還有很長的路要走，才能回到大流行前的狀態或疫情引發的高點。我們有點擊中了這一點。克里斯，我認為高峰是，我們說，2020 年第三季是我們達到頂峰的時候。

And then we saw things really fall off as our lead times extended and now we've been in that recovery mode. The good news is we're seeing that recovery. I do think kind of pursuant to my answer to the previous question, about -- or might be additional color from the previous question about we've got more people coming into the sales funnel that maybe aren't experiencing outages, but they're concerned about outages and they're hearing more about it. Either because of media reports or other things or maybe notifications from their local utility that they could be at risk of an outage with cold temperatures, if there -- if they don't immediately turn off their -- reduce their power consumption.

然後，隨著交貨時間的延長，我們看到事情真的開始惡化，現在我們已經處於恢復模式。好消息是我們正在看到復甦。我確實認為，根據我對上一個問題的回答，關於——或者可能是上一個問題的額外色彩，即我們有更多的人進入銷售渠道，他們可能沒有遇到中斷，但他們擔心停電，並且他們聽到了更多有關此問題的消息。要么是因為媒體報導或其他事情，要么是因為當地公用事業公司的通知，如果他們不立即關閉電力，他們可能會面臨低溫停電的風險，從而減少電力消耗。

Those are scary things. When you're a homeowner and you get that text message, and it's zero degrees outside, and you need to reduce your energy consumption immediately or you could be facing blackouts. I mean that's -- those things send people on a hunt for solutions. And that's when we see and we are seeing evidence that people are coming into the sales funnel. I will say that it's going to be a longer conversion cycle for those homeowners if they haven't experienced an outage.

這些都是可怕的事。當您是房主並收到該簡訊時，外面的氣溫為零度，您需要立即減少能源消耗，否則可能會面臨停電。我的意思是──這些事情促使人們尋找解決方案。那時我們就看到了人們正在進入銷售管道的證據。我想說，如果那些房主沒有經歷過停電，那麼他們的轉換週期將會更長。

So we're aware of that. And we think that, that could lead to some -- could take a little bit longer than for close rates to really truly recover to that level as a result of just more people coming into the sales funnel and investigating the category. We don't necessarily think that's a bad thing. We just think that it means that it's even more important that our nurturing efforts and our efforts to continue to engage homeowners, who have interest in the product category that we remain very diligent in our efforts there. So again, close rates, the assumption, kind of a modest improvement over the course of 2024.

所以我們知道這一點。我們認為，這可能會導致一些——可能需要比接近率更長的時間才能真正恢復到這一水平，因為更多的人進入銷售管道並調查該類別。我們不一定認為這是一件壞事。我們只是認為這意味著我們的培育努力和我們繼續吸引對我們仍然非常努力的產品類別感興趣的房主的努力更加重要。再說一次，假設成交率在 2024 年會有適度改善。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

Aaron, can you just talk about the margin outlook. So you had 20% margins in the fourth quarter. And seasonally, that's a 19% annual equivalent rate and we're looking at guidance of 17%. So what's the 200 basis point margin degradation beyond normal seasonality that you folks are guiding to as R&D or other areas? Can you just expand on the drivers compared to the...

Aaron，您能談談利潤前景嗎？所以第四季你的利潤率為 20%。從季節性來看，年增長率為 19%，我們正在考慮 17% 的指導值。那麼你們在研發或其他領域指導的超出正常季節性的 200 個基點的利潤率下降是多少？與...相比，您能否擴展一下驅動程式？

Yes, in the prepared -- I did talk about our operating expense investments. So we are expecting those as a percentage of sales to go up as we -- as we add the resources necessary to continue to drive our growth. At our Investor Day last September, we talked about a lot of significant long-term growth opportunities. We want to add those resources here in 2024 to go after those opportunities. So that -- you had that before the revenue is incurred, and that's really across all of our business, not just -- it's -- it's our consumer power business, our industrial business, our Energy Technologies products.

是的，在準備中——我確實談到了我們的營運費用投資。因此，隨著我們增加繼續推動成長所需的資源，我們預計這些佔銷售額的百分比將會上升。在去年九月的投資者日上，我們討論了許多重要的長期成長機會。我們希望在 2024 年增加這些資源來抓住這些機會。因此，在產生收入之前，這確實涉及我們所有的業務，而不僅僅是我們的消費電力業務、我們的工業業務、我們的能源技術產品。

And you need to add those costs before the revenue and that will increase our OpEx as a percentage of sales, we believe in 2024 relative to '23. And maybe that's probably the -- just to square that up with maybe the math that you're looking at.

您需要在收入之前添加這些成本，這將增加我們的營運支出佔銷售額的百分比，我們相信 2024 年相對於 23 年而言。也許這可能只是為了將其與您正在查看的數學相結合。

Yes. I think, Jerry, just one last comment on that. We have been investing heavily for the future here. We think those investments are both necessary and I think improve our odds of being successful as the market continues to change.

是的。我想，傑瑞，我只是對此做最後的評論。我們一直在為這裡的未來進行大量投資。我們認為這些投資都是必要的，而且隨著市場的不斷變化，我認為這會提高我們成功的幾率。

There is just a ream of evidence around the fact that the grid is changing. I talked about it in my prepared remarks. We talked to a lot of utility and grid operators. They are -- there is a significant challenge ahead as we continue to retire traditional thermal assets on the supply side in favor of renewables, which is -- I think we all agree, we want to decarbonize the grid as much as we can. The challenge, of course, is those renewables are intermittent in nature. And storage costs are still high.

目前有大量證據顯示電網正在改變。我在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。我們與許多公用事業和電網營運商進行了交談。它們是——隨著我們繼續淘汰供應側的傳統熱資產，轉而使用再生能源，我們面臨著一個重大挑戰——我想我們都同意，我們希望盡可能地使電網脫碳。當然，挑戰在於這些再生能源本質上是間歇性的。而且儲存成本仍然很高。

And large-format utility storage is difficult to balance out with the cost of building those renewable plants. You couple that with this -- what we're now seeing, which is an increase on the demand side, which we haven't seen in decades. The demand side has been relatively muted. Retail electric sales have been relatively muted over the last couple of decades as maybe some of the growth has been offset, some of the either population growth or just growth in some of the power usage devices has been offset by efficiency gains, but that's changing.

大型公用設施儲存很難與建造這些再生能源工廠的成本相平衡。再加上我們現在看到的需求方面的成長，這是我們幾十年來從未見過的。需求面相對疲軟。在過去的幾十年裡，零售電力銷售相對平靜，因為可能部分增長已被抵消，部分人口增長或僅某些用電設備的增長已被效率提高所抵消，但這種情況正在發生變化。

And we're seeing the electrification trends again, around cooking, around cleaning, around heating and cooling, certainly around transportation, super early innings there. But it's creating these incredible opportunities for mismatch of supply and demand. And in particular, as more severe weather and volatile weather patterns pick up, that is putting dramatic stress on the grid.

我們再次看到電氣化趨勢，圍繞著烹飪，圍繞著清潔，圍繞著供暖和製冷，當然圍繞著交通，那裡的超級早期階段。但它卻為供需不匹配創造了這些令人難以置信的機會。特別是，隨著更惡劣的天氣和不穩定的天氣模式的出現，這給電網帶來了巨大的壓力。

And so I don't -- again, we couldn't be in a better place at a better time with the products and solutions that we've assembled here. We have a lot of work to do, obviously, to deploy those to great effect. To build out these ecosystems for homeowners and business owners. We're working very hard on that. And the work is the investment level we're talking about here, and that is what York was referring to, certainly in the -- throughout the year, 350 to 400 basis point dilution to EBITDA margin.

因此，我再次強調，憑藉我們在這裡組裝的產品和解決方案，我們無法在更好的時間處於更好的地點。顯然，我們還有很多工作要做，才能發揮這些作用。為房主和企業主建構這些生態系統。我們正在為此努力。工作就是我們在這裡討論的投資水平，這就是約克所指的，當然是全年 EBITDA 利潤率稀釋 350 到 400 個基點。

For Energy Technologies.

對於能源技術。

For Energy Technologies.

對於能源技術。

Having said all that, we start expecting to increase our EBITDA margins from '23 to '24.

話雖如此，我們開始預計我們的 EBITDA 利潤率將從 23 年提高到 24 年。

Our next question comes from Stephen Gengaro with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Stephen Gengaro。

So two things for me. The first -- and I'm not sure if you're able to comment, but when you talk about that margin drag from the new energy technology side, and you sort of painted this picture at your Analyst Day, but should we expect that to start to dissipate in '25?

對我來說有兩件事。第一個 - 我不確定你是否能夠發表評論，但是當你談論新能源技術方面的利潤拖累時，你在分析師日上描繪了這張圖，但我們是否應該期望這一點25年開始消散？

Yes, absolutely. And then the idea, as we laid out and we're still on our path here. But the idea, as we laid out in September at the Investor Day is that, that we would be at breakeven. We would start to achieve breakeven levels in that business in '26. So you will start to see an abatement of that dilution impact. It's just not going to happen this year. So it really starts in '25 and it accelerates.

是的，一點沒錯。然後是我們提出的想法，我們仍然在我們的道路上。但正如我們在 9 月的投資者日所闡述的那樣，我們的想法是，我們將實現損益平衡。我們將在 26 年開始實現該業務的損益平衡水準。因此，您將開始看到稀釋影響的減弱。今年這種情況不會發生。所以它真正開始於 25 年並且加速發展。

Cut in half '26 is what we would...

26 年減半是我們想要的...

Cut in half by '26, right? Exactly.

到26年減半，對嗎？確切地。

The next question comes from Mark Strouse with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的馬克·斯特勞斯。

I wanted to start with the gross margin guide for 2024, 37%. That would be the highest, since 2020. I assume a good part of that is driven by mix. Can you talk about your expectations for pricing that are embedded in that? And then just a quick clarification question, if I could. Residential revenue in 4Q grew 1%. I think you said that home standby grew maybe upwards of 10% and then the Energy Tech business grew as well. If that's true, what was the offset to get to the 1% growth?

我想從 2024 年的毛利率指南開始，37%。這將是自 2020 年以來的最高水平。我認為其中很大一部分是由混合驅動的。您能談談您對其中包含的定價的期望嗎？如果可以的話，然後快速澄清一下問題。第四季住宅收入成長 1%。我想你說過家庭待機可能成長了 10% 以上，然後能源科技業務也成長了。如果這是真的，那麼要達到 1% 的成長需要多少補償？

Yes. So let me unpack that. So it was mostly portable gens in Q4, again, with a really soft power outage environment and no major events.

是的。那麼讓我來解開它。因此，第四季的主要是便攜式發電設備，再次出現真正的軟停電環境，並且沒有重大事件。

And a tough comp last year.

去年的比賽也很難熬。

I mean, here and in Europe.

我的意思是，在這裡和歐洲。

Correct. Yes. And the European side of that as well, to York's point, the Russia, Ukraine war, they just -- they haven't really -- some of the energy concerns, security concerns haven't come to a pass there. And as a result, we saw -- we've seen portable gens really come off and also power products were soft. We said -- we called this out throughout the year last year, we had a tough year with our power products business.

正確的。是的。就約克而言，歐洲方面也是如此，俄羅斯、烏克蘭戰爭，他們只是——他們還沒有真正——一些能源擔憂、安全擔憂還沒有解決。結果，我們看到便攜式發電機確實表現不佳，而且電源產品也很軟。我們說，去年全年我們都指出這一點，我們的電源產品業務度過了艱難的一年。

So that was also soft. But that was offset by 10% growth in HSP and some growth also in the clean energy business. On the margin question, I'll just -- I'll touch on the price piece of that real quick, and then York can kind of round out the discussion. But it's small. I mean we got a little bit of price in there this year, just to cover some of the additional costs that we've seen around the investments that we've had to make as we scale the business, but they were quite modest, I would say, in terms of price.

所以那也是軟的。但這被 HSP 10% 的成長和清潔能源業務的一些成長所抵消。關於保證金問題，我很快就會談到價格部分，然後約克可以結束討論。但它很小。我的意思是，今年我們的價格有點高，只是為了彌補我們在擴大業務時必須進行的投資所產生的一些額外成本，但這些成本相當適中，我會說，在價格方面。

There's no big price. So the rest of it...

沒有什麼大的代價。那麼剩下的...

I'd say half of that gross margin increase that you referred to is, in fact, mix, obviously, as resi and home standby grow faster than our C&I business, that will be a tailwind to gross margin growth. The other half is really cost continuing to abate the realization of the cost that we're experiencing were, I'd say, in the beginning of 2023, we were still feeling the supply chain pressures that spilled over from '22 into '23, those are largely -- we won't see that in 2024 here.

我想說，您提到的毛利率增長實際上有一半是混合的，顯然，由於RESI和家庭備用業務的增長速度快於我們的C&I業務，這將成為毛利率增長的推動力。另一半實際上是成本繼續降低我們正在經歷的成本的實現，我想說的是，在 2023 年初，我們仍然感受到從 22 年到 23 年溢出的供應鏈壓力，這些在很大程度上是2024年我們不會看到的。

Logistics costs, I think we were as those costs build over from '22 into our inventory and as we sell through that inventory, that headwind that won't be a headwind. As we ramp up our production in our plants we'll have obviously favorable overhead absorption, lower warehousing and storage costs as we bring our inventory levels down, that's sort of behind the scenes, there's a lot of -- we don't need as much warehousing space to store the inventory anymore. So that builder costs will come down.

物流成本，我認為我們是因為這些成本從 22 年開始就累積到我們的庫存中，當我們透過該庫存進行銷售時，這種逆風不會是逆風。當我們提高工廠的產量時，我們將有明顯有利的間接費用吸收，隨著我們降低庫存水平，降低倉儲和存儲成本，這在幕後，有很多——我們不需要有足夠的倉儲空間來存儲庫存。這樣建築商的成本就會下降。

Just general plant efficiencies. And then we always have our profitability enhancement program that it's a -- it's sort of part of our DNA now that we cascade cost reduction initiatives across the company throughout the company. And we have goals for those initiatives and projects that we believe we'll realize in the second half of the year. So as the cost side of it is an important side of it as well in terms of the gross margin improvement.

只是一般工廠效率。然後我們總是有我們的盈利能力增強計劃，它是我們 DNA 的一部分，現在我們在整個公司範圍內推行成本削減計劃。我們為這些措施和項目設定了目標，相信我們將在今年下半年實現。因此，就毛利率改善而言，成本方面也是一個重要面向。

Our next question comes from Donovan Schafer with Northland Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northland Capital Markets 的 Donovan Schafer。

So I want to ask for some of the softness on the C&I side of the business. In the release, you mentioned it also applies -- of course, there's telecom and the rental accounts is kind of what comes first in the order of significance, it seems like. But the [beyond standby] has become increasingly interesting. And I believe Enchanted Rock has been an important part of that. I believe it goes into that bucket. Correct me if I'm wrong on that.

所以我想要求 C&I 業務方面有一些軟性。在新聞稿中，您提到它也適用——當然，電信和租賃帳戶似乎是按重要性順序排在第一位的。但[超越待機]變得越來越有趣。我相信魔法岩石是其中的重要組成部分。我相信它會進入那個桶子。如果我錯了，請糾正我。

And so I'm curious, if you can comment on what you're seeing in the beyond standby and kind of the weakness there? If it is tied to Enchanted Rock kind of when that agreement ends? I believe it was either expiring this in '23 or '24. If you expect that to be renewed and if you can comment at all on potential for data center demand being helpful. I know you have -- I believe you have the largest natural gas generator for data center back up. So any color on those would be appreciated.

所以我很好奇，你是否可以評論一下你在超越待機中看到的情況以及那裡的弱點？如果協議終止時它與魔法岩石有關？我相信它要么在 23 年要么在 24 年到期。如果您希望更新它，並且您可以對資料中心需求的潛力發表評論，那麼將會有所幫助。我知道你們擁有——我相信你們擁有用於資料中心備份的最大天然氣發電機。所以任何顏色的東西都會受到讚賞。

Yes. Thanks, Donovan. So yes, I think it would be good to maybe spend a few minutes on the C&I side. We -- that business has been on an absolute tear over the last 3 years, CAGR it was close to 30%. It's a $1.5 billion asset for us today globally. It is a truly global business. And in fact, we have a lot of long-term conviction there, as evidenced by we broke ground on a new plant here in Wisconsin just here in the fourth quarter because we see the long-term need for additional capacity as the market grows.

是的。謝謝，多諾萬。所以，是的，我認為花幾分鐘時間討論 C&I 方面會很好。我們的業務在過去 3 年裡一直在大幅成長，複合年增長率接近 30%。對我們今天的全球來說，這是一筆 15 億美元的資產。這是一項真正的全球性業務。事實上，我們對此有很多長期信念，第四季度我們在威斯康辛州破土動工的一家新工廠證明了這一點，因為我們看到隨著市場的成長，對額外產能的長期需求。

Specifically, we have always seen certain cycles in the C&I markets. We've been serving the -- I'll start with telecom and kind of work my way through the walk here on kind of the three different areas we called out specifically in the prepared remarks. But I'll start with telecom. It's been an important vertical for us. Historically, around 10% of C&I. We had a really strong year -- a really strong year in 2022, with telecom, we started to see that soften up in the back half of this year. We called that earlier this year. So it kind of fell in line with what we saw.

具體來說，我們總是在工商業市場中看到某些週期。我們一直在服務——我將從電信開始，並透過我們在準備好的發言中特別提到的三個不同領域的工作方式來進行工作。但我將從電信開始。這對我們來說是一個重要的垂直領域。從歷史上看，大約佔 C&I 的 10%。我們度過了非常強勁的一年——2022 年是電信業非常強勁的一年，我們開始看到今年下半年的情況有所放緩。我們今年早些時候就這樣稱呼過。所以這有點符合我們所看到的。

But I think we were more hopeful that it would rebound more quickly here in '24, and right now, all evidence based on kind of -- you can look at any of the transcripts for many of the major wireless carriers. We're a Tier 1 supplier to all of them. They've all kind of cut their CapEx guide year-over-year by roughly 10%, call it. So I think that's kind of a proxy for what we're seeing to some degree in telecom.

但我認為我們更希望它能在 24 年更快地反彈，而現在，所有證據都基於某種——你可以查看許多主要無線運營商的任何記錄。我們是所有這些公司的一級供應商。他們都將資本支出指導年減了大約 10%，可以這麼說。所以我認為這在某種程度上代表了我們在電信領域所看到的情況。

But we've seen this movie before. We've been serving that market for 40 years. And they tend to cycle on and off of CapEx. Some of it is the pacing of the build-out of the network. Some of it is they're balancing other capital priorities, sometimes M&A, sometimes other things. So we've seen that before. That will come back, absolutely. And we feel like that's just a cycle we're going to get through here in '24.

但我們以前看過這部電影。我們為該市場服務已有 40 年。而且他們往往會循環使用和關閉資本支出。其中一些是網路建設的節奏。其中一些是他們正在平衡其他資本優先事項，有時是併購，有時是其他事情。所以我們以前已經見過這種情況。那絕對會回來。我們覺得這只是我們將在 24 年經歷的一個週期。

The other one is the rental accounts, the national rental accounts in particular. Again, we're a major supplier to all of them. And you've seen a couple other rental customers come out, rental accounts come out and say that their CapEx is going to be lower year-over-year. So we're kind of -- we're kind of working off of that, those types of guidances. And in particular, there's been a pretty heavy [refleeting] cycle over the last few years in the categories that we supply, in particular, in Power & Light. So where you've got temporary power or temporary lighting, those are the products we manufacture and put into those channels.

另一種是租賃帳戶，特別是國家租賃帳戶。再說一遍，我們是所有這些公司的主要供應商。您已經看到其他幾個租賃客戶出來了，租賃帳戶出來並表示他們的資本支出將同比下降。所以我們正在努力解決這些類型的指導。特別是，在過去幾年中，我們提供的類別（特別是電力和照明領域）出現了相當嚴重的[反射]週期。因此，如果您有臨時電力或臨時照明，這些就是我們製造並投入這些管道的產品。

They've gone through a heavy refleeting cycle. And now they've got to wait for the utilization rates to kind of get to where they need them to be before they start kind of purchasing new equipment. So again, we've seen that cycle about 3 times in our ownership and in our participation in that market over the last decade plus years. So that's just cycle.

他們經歷了一個沉重的反射週期。現在，他們必須等待利用率達到他們需要的水平，然後才能開始購買新設備。因此，在過去的十多年裡，我們的所有權和參與市場的過程中，我們已經看到了大約 3 次這樣的循環。所以這只是循環。

And then the last one is beyond standby. That is an area that's been very interesting. It's grown very quickly. We have customers like in Enchanted Rock in there and they're not the only ones. We've got others that we sell a lot of these generators and in particular, on the gas side, where we would sell a typical gas generator for emergency backup, customers are finding that there's additional utility and value that they can deploy that generator in perhaps a grid support type program, right? So time of use program or some other kind of demand response type program, and they can help monetize the asset in a way that they couldn't before.

然後最後一個就無法待機了。這是一個非常有趣的領域。它長得很快。我們有像 Enchanted Rock 這樣的客戶，而且他們並不是唯一的客戶。我們還有其他人，我們出售許多此類發電機，特別是在天然氣方面，我們將出售典型的燃氣發電機用於緊急備用，客戶發現他們可以在其中部署該發電機，從而獲得額外的效用和價值。也許是一個網格支援類型的程序，對嗎？因此，使用時間計劃或其他類型的需求響應類型計劃，它們可以幫助以以前無法實現的方式將資產貨幣化。

They had to think of it purely as a kind of a -- it was really a disaster response type purchase before, kind of an insurance policy. And so not something that would necessarily create a return year-after-year, right? I mean it obviously would give you a return, if you experience an outage, that's an infrequent use. This is a way now to -- as natural gas prices have stayed low, electricity prices continue to rise, that has been a very interesting growth opportunity. Still relatively small in the context of everything we do, but it's been growing very quickly, and we've called it out on over the last couple of years. Underpinned by Enchanted Rock as an important customer there. But also data centers, these are smaller gas gens, so they're used more in edge data centers, not necessarily hyperscale.

他們必須將其純粹視為一種——以前實際上是一種災難應變類型的購買，一種保險單。所以不一定會年復一年地創造回報，對嗎？我的意思是，如果您遇到中斷，那麼它顯然會給您帶來回報，這是一種不頻繁的使用。現在這是一種方式——隨著天然氣價格保持在低位，電價繼續上漲，這是一個非常有趣的成長機會。就我們所做的一切而言，它仍然相對較小，但它增長得非常快，並且我們在過去幾年中一直在呼籲它。以 Enchanted Rock 為重要客戶為基礎。還有資料中心，這些是較小的氣體發生器，因此它們更多地用於邊緣資料中心，不一定是超大規模的。

Hyperscale data centers are still going to be using very large diesel gens that are manufactured by our competitors. We're not in that business today. So we're really serving more of the edge data center markets or those data center operators that want to use those assets in a monetized fashion. You wouldn't be able to do that economically with diesel. You can do it economically with gas, but it takes a lot more gens to get to the same level of protection because the density, the power density of each generator for gas is lower than it is for diesel.

超大規模資料中心仍將使用由我們的競爭對手製造的超大型柴油發電機。我們今天不從事這項業務。因此，我們實際上是在為更多的邊緣資料中心市場或那些希望以貨幣化方式使用這些資產的資料中心營運商提供服務。使用柴油無法經濟地做到這一點。您可以使用天然氣經濟地做到這一點，但需要更多的發電機才能達到相同的保護，因為密度，每台天然氣發電機的功率密度低於柴油發電機。

That's just a -- that's a physics thing. You can't get around that. But that's -- it's still a great market opportunity. We just -- what we called out this morning in the prepared remarks there, is with a higher interest rate environment, we're just seeing those projects get pushed out the timelines, right? So we think it's temporary. We think it will return when interest rates kind of return to a more normal level.

這只是一個物理問題。你無法迴避這個問題。但這仍然是一個巨大的市場機會。我們只是 - 我們今天早上在準備好的演講中指出，在利率上升的環境下，我們只是看到這些項目被推遲了，對嗎？所以我們認為這是暫時的。我們認為，當利率恢復到更正常的水平時，這種情況就會回歸。

Do we know when that is? No. I think you listened to economists and we see a lot of them and hear a lot of them, it's anywhere between zero rate cuts and 12 this year. I don't know. Take your -- pick your number, but we're watching that. We're seeing kind of what goes on in that environment, but we do think that as rates come down, that obviously changes, I think, the -- not only the economics around those projects, but shouldn't bring some of those projects that have been delayed back into the mix.

我們知道那是什麼時候嗎？不。我想你聽了經濟學家的意見，我們看到了很多經濟學家的意見，也聽到了很多經濟學家的說法，今年的降息幅度介於零降息和 12 次降息之間。我不知道。拿起你的——選擇你的號碼，但我們正在關注這一點。我們看到了在這種環境下發生的事情，但我們確實認為，隨著利率的下降，我認為這顯然會發生變化——不僅是這些項目周圍的經濟狀況，而且不應該帶來其中一些項目已被延遲回到混合。

Our next question comes from Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Kashy Harrison 和 Piper Sandler。

So maybe just sticking with C&I since we're talking about it. Aaron, as you pointed out, you guys have been serving telecom for, I think, you said 40 years and rental companies for a really long time. So how long does it typically take for the spending to recover on average? Is this something where it drops and stays down for a year, 2 years, 3 years?

所以也許只是堅持 C&I，因為我們正在談論它。 Aaron，正如你所指出的，你們為電信服務了 40 年，為租賃公司服務了很長時間。那麼支出平均需要多久才能恢復？這是不是會下降並維持一年、兩年、三年？

Just maybe help us think about that. And then similarly, following up on this topic of interest rates, can you walk us through the level of rates that drove weakness in that segment?

也許只是幫助我們思考一下。同樣，在關注利率這個主題時，您能否向我們介紹一下導致該領域疲軟的利率水準？

Was it when we got the 5% on the benchmark. Was it another level -- just trying to think -- and just trying to think through if we get the 3%, is that when the segment is back? Is it 4% is it 2%? Just some thought around the level of rates and how it impacts the beyond standby business?

是在我們獲得基準 5% 的時候嗎？這是另一個層面嗎——只是想思考一下——如果我們得到了 3%，那就是該細分市場回歸的時候嗎？是4%還是2%？只是對費率水準及其如何影響超額待命業務進行一些思考？

Yes. Thanks, Kashy. So with respect to the telecom and rental cycles, just kind of how we've seen that historically, they play out in like 4 to 6 quarters generally is kind of how it plays out. There can be unique situation we had, as an example, when consolidation has happened historically in the telecom industry, an acquisition of Sprint by T-Mobile, that kind of thing or merger, those types of situations.

是的。謝謝，卡什。因此，就電信和租賃週期而言，就像我們從歷史上看到的那樣，它們通常會在 4 到 6 個季度內發揮作用。舉個例子，我們可能遇到過獨特的情況，電信業歷史上曾發生過整合，T-Mobile 收購了 Sprint，諸如此類的事情或合併，諸如此類的情況。

Those can be more unique. Those -- whenever there's major acquisitions, that usually creates a pause in CapEx as the carriers do their integration activities and they try and rationalize what they've acquired in terms of the assets and the networks and how they want to deploy that going forward from a strategy standpoint. But typically, 4 to 6 quarters. And similarly, on the rental side, those refleeting cycles can be a year or 2, depending on the category, depending on the customer, depending on the market.

這些可以更加獨特。這些 - 每當發生重大收購時，通常都會導致資本支出暫停，因為運營商進行整合活動，他們嘗試合理化他們在資產和網絡方面所收購的資產以及他們希望如何部署這些資產和網絡戰略立場。但通常是 4 到 6 個季度。同樣，在租賃方面，這些反射週期可能是一年或兩年，具體取決於類別、客戶、市場。

Sometimes they're influenced in oil and gas, as oil and gas prices go up, that can mean better utilization of the equipment in certain regions, where they're used in those applications. And so, the timing can vary, but I would say pretty reliably. Historically, we've seen 4 to 6 quarters. The beyond standby...

有時它們會受到石油和天然氣的影響，隨著石油和天然氣價格的上漲，這可能意味著在這些應用中使用設備的某些地區可以更好地利用設備。因此，時間可能會有所不同，但我會說非常可靠。從歷史上看，我們已經看到了 4 到 6 個季度。超越待機...

I'm going to say because we sell direct, you tend to see it quickly too. Like they turn it, they can turn it off fast or if they can turn it on fast.

我想說的是，因為我們直接銷售，所以你往往也很快就能看到它。就像他們打開它一樣，他們可以快速關閉它，或者如果他們可以快速打開它。

Really good point. Yes. We tend to see them wheeled -- their capital spending, their purchase orders can be, as York said, it can be pretty abrupt both on and off. So we watch that very closely. One of the reasons we're expanding capacity in C&I, the range of product we're aimed at actually is what we would refer to as our midrange product, which really goes after that telecom market and some of that temporary power market for the rental markets as well.

真的很好。是的。我們傾向於看到他們的輪子——他們的資本支出，他們的採購訂單可以是，正如約克所說，它可以是非常突然的，無論是斷斷續續的。所以我們非常密切地關注這一點。我們擴大工商業產能的原因之一，我們的目標產品範圍實際上是我們所說的中端產品，它真正針對的是電信市場和一些臨時電力租賃市場市場也是如此。

It's kind of the mid-range products. And that's where we see -- we are absolutely the strongest manufacturer there in North America in terms of our share and our aggressive stance with these customers. We have an outsized share with these segments, which is maybe why we're getting hurt a little bit more than perhaps some of our competitors in some of the -- in C&I in 2024. Some of our competitors are a little more focused on the hyperscale data centers. As I said before, we don't have products there. So I think some of the way we're looking at the markets in '24, maybe differ from some of our competitors as a result.

這是一種中檔產品。這就是我們所看到的——就我們的份額和對這些客戶的積極態度而言，我們絕對是北美最強大的製造商。我們在這些細分市場中佔有巨大的份額，這也許就是為什麼我們在 2024 年的 C&I 領域比我們的一些競爭對手受到的傷害更大。我們的一些競爭對手更專注於超大規模資料中心。正如我之前所說，我們在那裡沒有產品。因此，我認為我們看待 24 年市場的某些方式可能與我們的一些競爭對手有所不同。

To answer your question on kind of what interest rate level kind of impacts the beyond standby market, we kind of saw projects starting to kind of elongate in the cycle. It's new to us. So we haven't been through a rate a higher rate environment there with that product category, so it's new. So we've got a lot of learning cycles there. We're trying to get under our belt. So I can't give you an exact rate because the one thing we do know is that every project pencils out differently in every market. It really depends on the local utility costs in the market. It depends on the use case of the products in a particular market, the end customer the project size, there are just a ton of factors.

為了回答您關於利率水準對超額備用市場有何影響的問題，我們看到專案開始在週期中延長。這對我們來說是新的。因此，我們還沒有經歷過該產品類別的更高利率環境，所以它是新的。所以我們有很多學習週期。我們正在努力掌握自己的能力。因此，我無法給您一個準確的比率，因為我們確實知道的一件事是，每個項目在每個市場的表現都不同。這實際上取決於市場上當地的公用事業成本。這取決於特定市場中產品的用例、最終客戶、專案規模，還有很多因素。

So I would tell you that I don't know that there's like a specific interest rate level where we could say we called it being cooling off and vice versa, a specific interest rate level where we would say if we get to 3.5% that it will turn back on. I think a lot of that's just going to depend on economics improving in particular markets, and there's just a ton of factors that go into each one.

所以我想告訴你，我不知道有一個特定的利率水平，我們可以說我們稱之為冷卻，反之亦然，如果我們達到 3.5%，我們會說它會冷卻。將重新打開。我認為這在很大程度上取決於特定市場經濟狀況的改善，而每個市場都涉及大量因素。

Our next question comes from Joseph Osha with Guggenheim.

我們的下一個問題來自古根漢的約瑟夫·奧沙。

I have two product questions for you. The first one relates to some of the DC generators that you were talking about as products to be coupled with storage. I'm curious, if we can get an update there. And second, in terms of the storage strategy, given the timeline you're talking about in the micros, I know you still have the Pika architecture out there. What can you tell us in particular about how you -- what your outlook is for AC couple storage and whether we might see you selling storage alongside other people's inverters at some point during 2024 as we wait for the updated silicon product to come?

我有兩個產品問題想問你。第一個與您所說的一些直流發電機有關，這些發電機是與儲存相結合的產品。我很好奇我們是否能在那裡得到更新。其次，就儲存策略而言，考慮到您在微觀中談論的時間線，我知道您仍然擁有 Pika 架構。您能具體告訴我們什麼嗎？您對交流電偶儲存的前景如何，以及在我們等待更新的矽產品問世時，我們是否會在2024 年的某個時候看到您與其他人的逆變器一起銷售儲存？

Yes. Thanks, Joe. Good questions, all of those. I think -- so on the DC generator question, that was a very small product that we launched a couple of years ago. We didn't see a ton of receptivity to it. It really was aimed at people, who truly wanted to be unplugged from the grid, be isolated, independent from the grid.

是的。謝謝，喬。好問題，所有這些。我認為，關於直流發電機問題，這是我們幾年前推出的一個非常小的產品。我們沒有看到人們對此有太多的接受度。它確實是針對那些真正想要從電網中拔出、與世隔絕、獨立於電網的人。

And yeah, it's a small host of customers. What we actually think is probably a better opportunity going forward is to take our existing AC product, AC generator products in an AC-coupled environment and allow the generator to act as a -- as a battery charger through an AC coupling as opposed to a DC. So it's just -- it's a little bit -- it's not quite as efficient but -- but it allows us to leverage the AC generator platform, which in terms of our cost structure, is, frankly, just -- it's just better because we just -- we have scale there, we can offer better value to customers, even though we might be taking away a little bit of value in terms of the AC generators a little bit louder.

是的，這是一小部分客戶。我們實際上認為，未來可能更好的機會是將我們現有的交流產品、交流發電機產品置於交流耦合環境中，並允許發電機透過交流耦合充當電池充電器，而不是透過交流耦合來充當電池充電器。直流。所以它只是——它有點——效率不那麼高——但是它允許我們利用交流發電機平台，坦率地說，就我們的成本結構而言，它只是——它更好，因為我們只是——我們在那裡有規模，我們可以為客戶提供更好的價值，儘管我們可能會在交流發電機方面失去一點價值。

They maybe use a little -- consume a little more fuel, but not materially. So that kind of direction we're headed strategically there is kind of moving away from the DC generator product to the AC generators, but it's a really small part of our product line. The broader question, and you're asking it kind of an AC coupling, we have AC coupling capabilities today with the Pika system.

他們可能會使用一點點——消耗更多一點的燃料，但不是物質上的。因此，我們的策略方向是從直流發電機產品轉向交流發電機，但這只是我們產品線的一小部分。更廣泛的問題，你問的是一種交流耦合，我們今天的 Pika 系統具有交流耦合功能。

We can take the battery as a stand-alone with the Pika inverter, we can AC couple it to a competitor's inverters. That's not the most efficient architecture, so as we introduce new products later this year, the next-generation storage products, we're going to improve the capability for AC coupling and make that a more, I'll call it, a better experience, a more sophisticated experience, a lower cost experience going forward.

我們可以將電池作為獨立的 Pika 逆變器，我們可以將其交流耦合到競爭對手的逆變器。這不是最高效的架構，因此當我們在今年稍後推出新產品，即下一代存儲產品時，我們將提高交流耦合的能力，並使其成為更好的體驗。 ，更複雜的體驗，未來成本更低的體驗。

And then of course, that sets us up nicely as we go forward with the microinverter products into 2025. And we're going to continue to offer the Pika products. I mean there are -- if you're doing a clean sheet implementation, we still believe that DC coupling is the most efficient -- round trip efficient way to do that. And so we think there's a place in the architecture for that system, at least for now. But as we roll micro inverters out and as we continue to build out our strategy and have success.

當然，這為我們在 2025 年推出微型逆變器產品奠定了良好的基礎。我們將繼續提供 Pika 產品。我的意思是——如果你正在做一個乾淨的實施，我們仍然相信直流耦合是最有效的——往返有效的方法。因此，我們認為該系統在架構中佔有一席之地，至少目前是如此。但隨著我們推出微型逆變器，並繼續制定我們的策略並取得成功。

I think the market will tell us directionally, where we need to go. I think you, in particular, pointed out trying to support both architectures going forward is a heavy load to do, and we would probably tend to agree with you on that. But again, we've got a long way to go before we're kind of proficient in the AC coupled solutions with the micro inverter solutions. There's some very capable products in market today, and it's taken us a long time to get to market because we are going to have a product that we're proud to put our name on, and that will stand the test of time from a reliability standpoint for our customers.

我認為市場會告訴我們方向，我們需要走向何方。我認為您特別指出，嘗試支援兩種架構的未來是一項繁重的工作，我們可能會同意您的觀點。但同樣，在我們精通交流耦合解決方案和微型逆變器解決方案之前，我們還有很長的路要走。如今市場上有一些功能非常強大的產品，我們花了很長時間才進入市場，因為我們將擁有一款我們自豪地貼上自己名字的產品，並且它將經受時間的可靠性考驗我們的客戶的立場。

And we're working through that. It's part of the big investment that we've been talking about, this 350 to 400 basis point drag. It's a piece of that on EBITDA margins, but we're committed to it. We think that there's a huge opportunity for us to be successful in that going forward.

我們正在解決這個問題。這是我們一直在談論的大投資的一部分，350 到 400 個基點的拖累。這是 EBITDA 利潤率的一部分，但我們致力於此。我們認為，我們有巨大的機會在未來取得成功。

Our next question comes from Jordan Levy with Trusit Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Trusit 證券公司的 Jordan Levy。

(inaudible) on for Jordan. As it relates to the dealer count, I think you closed the year with 8,700 and we have talked about the desire to bring that number closer to 10,000. And over the coming years. So can you maybe talk to the work you're doing there and some of the sticking points that makes it more challenging to bring that number up?

（聽不清楚）喬丹上場。就經銷商數量而言，我認為您今年的經銷商數量為 8,700 家，我們已經討論過希望使該數字接近 10,000 家。以及未來幾年。那麼您能否談談您在那裡所做的工作以及一些使提高該數字更具挑戰性的癥結點？

Yes, absolutely. Great question. And we've had some eye-popping increases over the last couple of years in dealer counts. 2023 was a more muted year, right? We kind of flatlined in '23. Part of that is, I think, the large increase that we saw a little over 2,000 dealers being added in the years leading up to 23%, you've got, I think, as you would imagine, you've got a process there that we -- our dealer count, by the way, is on a net basis, right? So -- and we basically -- we don't count a dealer for the purposes of that account, if they haven't bought anything from us in a 12-month period.

是的，一點沒錯。很好的問題。在過去幾年裡，我們的經銷商數量出現了令人瞠目結舌的成長。 2023 年是更平靜的一年，對嗎？我們在 23 年的表現有些平淡。我認為，其中一部分原因是，我們看到在過去幾年中增加了 2,000 多個經銷商，增幅高達 23%，我認為，正如您所想像的那樣，您已經有了一個流程順便說一句，我們的經銷商數量是以淨額計算的，對吧？因此，基本上，如果經銷商在 12 個月內沒有從我們這裡購買任何東西，我們就不會將該經銷商計算在內。

So we're maybe a little bit hard on ourselves in the way we think about dealer counts and the way we talk about it. If you were to actually look at the total number of dealers in our network, it's more than 8,700. But the 10,000 is a target on a net basis and we are still targeting that. The headwinds to that this year, in particular, where I think just the kind of rollover of some of the ads that we had, we still had a lot of really nice gross adds to the dealer count.

因此，我們在考慮經銷商數量和談論經銷商數量的方式上可能對自己有點苛刻。如果您實際查看我們網路中的經銷商總數，您會發現它超過 8,700 個。但 10,000 是淨目標，我們仍然以此為目標。尤其是今年的逆風，我認為只是我們的一些廣告的滾動，我們的經銷商數量仍然有很多非常好的總增加。

So we're bringing new dealers in -- but we -- as we call them, we call them dark doors. When a dealer hasn't bought from us in 12 months, we put them in that "dark door" category, and that is an offset to any gross adds that we have. So it's kind of churn, if you will. There's a churn that happens there. We had more churn in 2023, churn of a lot of those dealers that were added over the last couple of years. That also happens when you have kind of softer power outage environments, which certainly, as we talked about Q4 being a softer environment, that's a headwind to adding dealers, it's tough to get people interested in the category, if the demand isn't there necessarily, right?

因此，我們正在引進新的經銷商——但我們——正如我們所說的那樣，我們稱他們為「暗門」。當經銷商在 12 個月內沒有向我們購買產品時，我們會將其歸類為「黑門」類別，這抵消了我們的總增加額。如果你願意的話，這就是一種流失。那裡發生了混亂。 2023 年我們的流失率會更高，過去幾年新增的許多經銷商都流失了。當停電環境較弱時也會發生這種情況，當然，正如我們所說的第四季度是一個較弱的環境，這對增加經銷商來說是一個逆風，如果需求不存在，很難讓人們對該類別感興趣必然，對吧？

So we saw in-home consultations drop off in Q4. So those things present headwinds. I think longer term, as we've looked at this, we built this from basically zero, 20 years ago to 8,700 today to get to that 10,000. We're deploying an army of people that are going out there and engaging with primarily electrical contractors, but we've started to open the aperture on that to also include HVAC contractors. One interesting trend that I think many people have probably noted is you're seeing kind of a consolidation of kind of home services businesses. So electrical contractors getting into the HVAC business or vice versa or into plumbing or into home automation. Kind of this broadening of the suite of services that our contracting business will offer.

因此，我們看到第四季度的家庭諮詢數量有所下降。所以這些事情帶來了阻力。我認為從長遠來看，正如我們所看到的那樣，我們從 20 年前的基本為零到今天的 8,700 個，再到 10,000 個。我們正在部署一支人員隊伍，主要與電氣承包商合作，但我們已經開始開放這一領域，將暖通空調承包商也納入。我想很多人可能都注意到了一個有趣的趨勢，那就是您正在看到某種家庭服務業務的整合。因此，電氣承包商進入暖通空調行業，反之亦然，或進入管道或家庭自動化行業。我們的承包業務將提供此服務範圍的擴大。

It's giving us a nice opportunity to get introduced to new kind of cohorts in the contracting business. And then on top of that, I would tell you that bringing Ecobee into the fold, they have upwards of 14,000 HVAC contracting relationships just with the 3.5 million homes that they put devices into and that is kind of a really important kind of feeding ground for us in terms of a bench, if you want to think of it that way, where we can add and bring new dealers in to sell to.

這為我們提供了一個很好的機會來認識承包業務中的新群體。最重要的是，我想告訴你，將 Ecobee 納入其中後，他們僅與 350 萬個安裝了設備的家庭就擁有超過 14,000 個 HVAC 合約關係，這對於我們就一個長凳而言，如果你想這樣想的話，我們可以添加並引入新的經銷商來銷售。

So working all of those pads, I'm very confident we're going to get to 10,000 as the category continues to expand in the years ahead. So we haven't kind of put a pin on the date that's going to happen, but it's definitely going to happen as the category continues to grow.

因此，透過使用所有這些墊子，我非常有信心隨著該類別在未來幾年繼續擴大，我們的數量將達到 10,000 個。因此，我們還沒有確定具體的日期，但隨著該類別的不斷增長，它肯定會發生。

Our next question comes from Chip Moore with ROTH MKM.

我們的下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Chip Moore。

I wanted to go back to visibility for C&I with some of that cyclical deterioration you've seen, since the Investor Day. Aaron, is there maybe a potential for infrastructure investments to kick in here at some point and start to help drive growth there? And then any implications for those 3-year growth targets you've laid out?

我想回到 C&I 的可見度，看看自投資者日以來你所看到的一些週期性惡化。亞倫，基礎設施投資是否有可能在某個時候啟動並開始幫助推動那裡的成長？那麼對您所設定的三年成長目標有何影響？

Yes, it's a great question. I think in terms of infrastructure, obviously, anything that moves the needle there will certainly help shorten the cycle kind of off cycle for the rental equipment for sure. The telecom cycle, I think, is going to play out. Some of that is, it's kind of the installation bandwidth that those network kind of operators have to build out, like the speed at which they can build out their networks. There is some -- we ran into some headwinds there with some specific customers just being able to kind of keep pace with installations according to their schedules that they had originally set for themselves.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。我認為，就基礎設施而言，顯然，任何能推動那裡發展的事情肯定會有助於縮短租賃設備的停工週期。我認為，電信週期即將結束。其中一些是，這些網路營運商必須建立安裝頻寬，例如他們建立網路的速度。有一些 - 我們在那裡遇到了一些阻力，一些特定的客戶只是能夠根據他們最初為自己設定的時間表跟上安裝的步伐。

We were giving them product according to the schedules. You could probably say, okay, maybe there's some field inventory there as a result. We're not really calling it that way because it's not really a business we talk about inventory being carried for, but that's somewhat the issue there with maybe one or two of those customers, but I think that cycle -- I don't know if there's much we can do or that we would see to point to kind of that cycle accelerating. I think it's just going to have to play out the way that it plays out. But I think, again, the C&I cycles we've seen this movie before. So it doesn't really worry us. The visibility question is a good one.

我們根據時間表向他們提供產品。您可能會說，好吧，也許因此會有一些現場庫存。我們並不是真的這麼稱呼它，因為我們談論的庫存並不是真正的業務，但這可能是其中一兩個客戶的問題，但我認為這個週期 - 我不知道如果我們能做很多事情，或者我們會看到這種循環正在加速。我認為事情必須按照它的方式進行。但我想，我們以前看過這部電影的 C&I 週期。所以我們並不擔心。可見性問題是一個很好的問題。

We -- unfortunately, because these are big customers that kind of in our world, they wheel big pencils, right? They've got -- that's probably a dated term now, I'm probably -- myself but they can write big, big (inaudible). They can write big POs or they can stop writing big POs and we get forecasts from them and we listen to the same things that others listen to in terms of their CapEx guidance because that obviously is the best proxy that we can use and we have as much dialogue with them as we can about what are their build-out plans for networks and what are their build-out plans for fleet when it comes to the rental customers.

我們 - 不幸的是，因為這些是我們世界上的大客戶，他們輪著大鉛筆，對吧？他們有——現在這可能是一個過時的術語，我可能是——我自己，但他們可以寫得很大，很大（聽不清楚）。他們可以寫大採購訂單，也可以停止寫大採購訂單，我們從他們那裡得到預測，我們聽取其他人在資本支出指導方面聽取的相同內容，因為這顯然是我們可以使用的最佳代理，我們有我們可以與他們進行大量對話，了解他們的網路建設計劃以及針對租賃客戶的機隊建設計劃。

And we know we have some visibility in the pipeline for beyond standby projects as we're quoting them. But unfortunately, visibility, it's probably the weakest area of visibility for us in terms of our C&I business. When you look at the strength we called out in C&I, which is offsetting some of this weakness and more offset all of it, obviously, because we're saying C&I is going to be down for the year 10%. But offsetting that, our -- we call it our IDC, our independent distribution network is we continue to see growth there.

我們知道，當我們引用這些項目時，我們對超出備用項目的管道有一定的了解。但不幸的是，就我們的工商業業務而言，可見性可能是我們可見度最薄弱的領域。當你看到我們在 C&I 中指出的優勢時，很明顯，這正在抵消一些弱點，並且更多地抵消所有弱點，因為我們說 C&I 今年將下降 10%。但抵消這一點的是，我們的——我們稱之為我們的IDC，我們的獨立分銷網絡是我們繼續看到那裡的成長。

In fact, in some of the distribution partners, we actually have acquired a number of them over the last several years. And that's given us really clear insight and really good visibility actually into some local markets. And that is much more of a quotation business. And so we have, I think, much better visibility in that part of the business on C&I, but not as much, unfortunately, in some of these national account customers that can be I think, a lot more volatile in their order patterns.

事實上，在過去幾年裡，我們實際上已經收購了一些分銷合作夥伴。這讓我們對一些當地市場有了真正清晰的洞察力和良好的可見度。這更多的是報價業務。因此，我認為，我們在 C&I 業務的這一部分擁有更好的可見性，但不幸的是，在一些國民帳戶客戶中，我認為他們的訂單模式波動性更大。

And there are some pockets around the globe that we're seeing growth as well the offset some of that softness. But I think the last part of your question was how do we feel about C&I in the LRP that we -- the long-range plan that we rolled out during Investor Day.

全球有些地區的經濟成長也抵消了部分疲軟的影響。但我認為你問題的最後一部分是我們對 LRP 中的 C&I 有何看法——我們是在投資者日推出的長期計劃。

And I think -- in talking to the team that runs that business, it's -- I think because they -- these select certain customers that we're referring to in telecom rental beyond standby maybe they turned things off a little bit harder than we were expecting when we were walking through the Investor Day materials, but we think they think we think that they can turn them back on just as fast. So...

我認為 - 在與運營該業務的團隊交談時，我認為因為他們 - 這些選擇了我們在電信租賃中提到的超出待機狀態的某些客戶，也許他們比我們更難關閉東西當我們瀏覽投資者日材料時，我們一直在期待，但我們認為他們認為我們認為他們可以同樣快​​速地重新啟動它們。所以...

They have put a cycle in the LRP exactly.

他們在 LRP 中準確地放置了一個週期。

But maybe it just was a little bit harder down in '24 than maybe then maybe they recently thought. But they think they're going to be turning things back on in line with the LRP in '25, '26, call it.

但也許 24 年的情況比他們最近想的要困難一些。但他們認為他們將根據 25 年、26 年的 LRP 重新啟動一切。

Our next question comes from Keith Housum with Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Keith Housum。

Just one question in terms of the interest rates. This time, focus more on the HSBs. Can you guys remind me in terms of how critical is the interest rate environment to, I guess, the growth or decline of HSBs in any given quarter?

只有一個關於利率的問題。這一次，我們更專注於 HSB。你們能否提醒我，利率環境對任何特定季度的 HSB 成長或下降有多重要？

Yes. Thanks, Keith. And sorry to get you in here at the end. I made you wait 1.5 hours. But yes, the interest rate, actually, we've said this a couple of times, I think as we talk through this, I don't know, if we've talked about it publicly as much, but it's not a high -- the home standby category, in particular, is not a highly interest rate-sensitive category specifically.

是的。謝謝，基斯。最後很抱歉讓您來到這裡。我讓你等了1.5個小時。但是，是的，利率，實際上，我們已經說過好幾次了，我想當我們討論這個問題時，我不知道我們是否公開談論過它，但這並不是一個高- - 特別是家庭備用類別，並不是一個對利率高度敏感的類別。

Now obviously, the impacts, the higher rates have on the macroeconomic environment be the job security issues for people or kind of other challenges with maybe around the way they feel about the way people feel about spending money on large ticket purchases that does have an impact kind of on the margins, but...

現在顯然，較高的利率對宏觀經濟環境的影響是人們的工作保障問題或其他挑戰，可能與人們對花錢購買大額門票的感受有關，這確實會產生影響有點邊緣，但是...

It's not a highly financed.

這不是高資金。

It's not a highly financed purchase. Oddly enough. Now that said, we do have a third-party financing program through Synchrony, which has been a great program. it grew like almost 50% last year. So we are seeing more evidence of people using finance. But then when you peel the onion back, the #1 thing that we see people using is the 18-month same as cash. So -- we don't think that -- we think that that's not necessarily evidence they're just deferring their payment. Their payment, it doesn't cost me I think they're going to use somebody else's money for that 1.5 years.

這不是一筆資金雄厚的購買。說來也怪。話雖如此，我們確實有一個透過 Synchrony 的第三方融資計劃，這是一個很棒的計劃。去年增長了近 50%。因此，我們看到了更多人們使用金融的證據。但當你把洋蔥剝開時，我們看到人們使用的第一件事就是與現金相同的 18 個月存款。所以——我們不這麼認為——我們認為這不一定是他們只是推遲付款的證據。他們的付款，我不花我的錢，我想他們會在這 1.5 年裡用別人的錢。

So I don't think that all indications are that -- and you look at the kind of demographic that we sell into primarily there. And these are people that are -- they are older Americans who -- they have got their home paid for in a lot of cases, they're probably retired in cases. So for them, it's more about the -- protecting their home, protecting their safety, protecting their families. And I think that it's -- frankly, it's more about that than it is maybe about where interest rates are at any point in time.

所以我不認為所有的跡像都是這樣的——你看看我們主要在那裡銷售的人口類型。這些人是——他們是年長的美國人——他們在許多情況下已經支付了住房費用，在某些情況下他們可能已經退休了。所以對他們來說，更重要的是——保護他們的家園，保護他們的安全，保護他們的家人。我認為，坦白說，這更多的是關於這一點，而不是任何時間點的利率水平。

That concludes the question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the call back to Kris Rosemann for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。此時，我想將電話轉回給克里斯·羅斯曼 (Kris Rosemann)，讓其致閉幕詞。

We want to thank everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to discussing our first quarter 2024 earnings results with you in early May. Thank you again, and goodbye.

我們要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待在 5 月初與您討論 2024 年第一季的獲利結果。再次感謝您，再見。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。