Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Generac Holdings Inc. Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Kris Rosemann, Senior Manager, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Generac Holdings Inc. 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人克里斯·羅斯曼 (Kris Rosemann)，他是企業發展和投資者關係高級經理。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2023 earnings call. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. With me today is Aaron Jagdfeld, President and Chief Executive Officer; and York Ragen, Chief Financial Officer. We will begin our call today by commenting on forward-looking statements. Certain statements made during this presentation as well as other information provided from time to time by Generac or its employees may contain forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in these forward-looking statements.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。今天與我在一起的是總裁兼執行長 Aaron Jagdfeld；和財務長約克·雷根。我們今天將首先對前瞻性陳述發表評論。本簡報中的某些陳述以及 Generac 或其員工不時提供的其他資訊可能包含前瞻性陳述，並涉及可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性。

Please see our earnings release or SEC filings for a list of words or expressions that identify such statements and the associated risk factors. In addition, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures during today's call. Additional information regarding these measures, including reconciliation to comparable U.S. GAAP measures, is available in our earnings release and SEC filings. I will now turn the call over to Aaron.

請參閱我們的收益報告或 SEC 文件，以了解識別此類聲明和相關風險因素的單字或表達方式清單。此外，我們將在今天的電話會議中參考某些非公認會計原則措施。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比較的美國公認會計準則措施的調節，請參閱我們的收益報告和美國證券交易委員會的文件。我現在將把電話轉給亞倫。

Thanks, Kris. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Our third quarter results reflect improving operating performance led primarily by continued strength in C&I product shipments and sequential growth in home standby generator shipments. Year-over-year, overall net sales decreased 2% to $1.07 billion with core sales declining 4% during the quarter. Residential product sales decreased 15% as compared to the prior year, representing a significant improvement in sales decline from the prior 2 quarters as field inventory levels of home standby generators continued to decline during the quarter and portable generator sales decreased from a strong prior year comparison that included the impact of Hurricane Ian.

謝謝，克里斯。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我們第三季的業績反映了營運表現的改善，這主要是由於工商業產品出貨量的持續強勁以及家庭備用發電機出貨量的連續成長所致。與去年同期相比，整體淨銷售額下降 2%，至 10.7 億美元，本季核心銷售額下降 4%。住宅產品銷售額較上年同期下降15%，由於本季家用備用發電機的現場庫存水準持續下降以及便攜式發電機銷售額較上年同期強勁下降，銷售額下降幅度較前兩個季度顯著改善其中包括颶風伊恩的影響。

Global C&I product sales increased approximately 24% to an all-time quarterly record with growth across nearly all regions. We returned to year-over-year margin expansion for gross and adjusted EBITDA margins in the quarter, driven by lower input costs and continued production efficiencies. In addition, we generated significant free cash flow during the quarter, allowing us to complete approximately $100 million of share repurchases.

全球工商業產品銷售額成長約 24%，創歷史季度記錄，幾乎所有地區均實現成長。在投入成本下降和持續生產效率的推動下，本季毛利率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率恢復了同比增長。此外，我們在本季度產生了大量自由現金流，使我們能夠完成約 1 億美元的股票回購。

Third quarter home standby shipments grew at a strong sequential rate but declined on a year-over-year basis as we continued our efforts to reduce field inventory levels. Power outage activity in the U.S. was well above the long-term baseline average during the quarter despite not having the benefit of a major outage event, which we had experienced in the third quarter of each of the 3 previous years.

第三季家庭備用出貨量較上季成長強勁，但由於我們繼續努力降低現場庫存水平，年比有所下降。儘管沒有受益於我們在前三年的第三季度經歷過的重大停電事件，但本季美國的停電活動遠高於長期基準平均值。

Against a strong comparable period, the higher outage activity combined with well-publicized grid stability issues drove home consultations in the quarter meaningfully higher from the prior year and marked the second highest quarter on record behind only the third quarter of 2021, which included the impact of Hurricane Eta and was only months after the Texas deep-freeze major event in February of 2021.

與強勁的可比時期相比，停電活動增加，加上廣為人知的電網穩定性問題，導致本季度的家庭諮詢量顯著高於上一年，創下有記錄以來第二高的季度，僅次於2021年第三季度，其中包括影響颶風埃塔發生時，距離 2021 年 2 月德克薩斯州重大冰凍事件僅幾個月。

Our residential dealer count was approximately 8,700 at the end of the quarter, an increase of 200 from the prior year and over 2,000 from pre-COVID levels. Additionally, we continue to make good progress in training nondealer contractors as our initiatives to grow installation capacity maintained positive momentum in the third quarter.

截至本季末，我們的住宅經銷商數量約為 8,700 家，比前一年增加了 200 家，比新冠疫情爆發前的水平增加了 2,000 多家。此外，我們在培訓非經銷商承包商方面繼續取得良好進展，因為我們增加安裝容量的舉措在第三季度保持了積極勢頭。

Activations which are a proxy for installations improved at a solid sequential rate in the quarter, but declined from a strong comparable period in 2022 that marked an all-time high for a third quarter. Activations in the month of October continued this strong sequential improvement, providing further confidence that the home standby market has formed and is holding a new and higher baseline level of demand.

作為安裝量指標的激活量在本季度以穩健的環比速度增長，但較 2022 年的強勁可比同期有所下降，後者創下了第三季度的歷史新高。十月份的活化延續了這種強勁的環比改善，進一步增強了人們對家庭備用市場已經形成並維持新的更高基線需求水準的信心。

The number of home standby generators in our distribution channels declined further in the quarter as we continue to make progress in reducing field inventories. As previously disclosed, certain regions and channels are at healthier levels of field inventory than others. And field inventory levels of certain models are declining more quickly than others. Although we continue to undership end market demand during the third quarter, the gap between shipments and activations narrowed meaningfully as compared to the first half of the year. These factors, together with the continued strength in leading indicators of demand during the third quarter support our projection for home standby generator sales returning to growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 while still working to reduce field inventory to more sustainable levels.

隨著我們在減少現場庫存方面繼續取得進展，本季度我們分銷渠道中的家用備用發電機數量進一步下降。如前所述，某些地區和渠道的現場庫存水準比其他地區和渠道更健康。某些型號的現場庫存水準比其他型號下降得更快。儘管我們在第三季繼續滿足終端市場需求，但與上半年相比，出貨量和啟動量之間的差距明顯縮小。這些因素，加上第三季領先需求指標的持續強勁，支持我們對家用備用發電機銷售在 2023 年第四季恢復成長的預測，同時仍在努力將現場庫存減少到更永續的水平。

In addition to the positive near-term momentum that is building within the home standby market, we remain confident in the long-term outlook we shared at our recent Investor Day in September. The megatrends that are driving awareness for backup power remain as compelling as ever. As electrification trends drive demand forward and the adoption of intermittent renewable power generation accelerates, we expect that consumers will become even more reliant on an electrical grid that is increasingly susceptible to power outages caused by the combined threats of more severe and volatile weather and deteriorating supply-demand dynamics.

除了家庭備用市場正在形成的積極的近期勢頭之外，我們對我們在 9 月最近的投資者日分享的長期前景仍然充滿信心。推動備用電源意識的大趨勢仍然一如既往地引人注目。隨著電氣化趨勢推動需求成長以及間歇性再生能源發電的加速採用，我們預期消費者將更加依賴電網，而電網越來越容易受到更惡劣、多變的天氣和供應惡化的綜合威脅造成的停電影響。- 需求動態。

We believe home standby generators will remain the most effective and economical solution for whole home resiliency for many years to come as homeowners look for peace of mind to address the impact of increasingly frequent and longer duration power outages. In addition to the stronger-than-expected home standby shipments, our Residential Energy Technology Products and Solutions returned to year-over-year sales growth in the third quarter has continued strength in ecobee sales more than offset weakness in shipments of our power cell energy storage systems as broader market conditions for residential solar and energy storage deteriorated further in the quarter.

我們相信，在未來的許多年裡，家庭備用發電機仍將是整個家庭彈性最有效、最經濟的解決方案，因為房主希望安心地解決日益頻繁和持續時間較長的停電的影響。除了家庭備用出貨量強於預期之外，我們的住宅能源技術產品和解決方案在第三季度恢復了同比銷售增長，ecobee 銷售持續強勁，足以抵消我們動力電池能源出貨量的疲軟由於住宅太陽能和儲能的更廣泛市場狀況在本季進一步惡化，儲存系統。

As a result of these softer end market conditions, we now expect full year 2023 gross sales for residential energy technology to be approximately 10% below our prior guidance of $300 million. Ecobee continues to take market share with strategic retail partners in the smart thermostat market and the team successfully launched our new smart doorbell camera in the month of October. In addition to providing increased levels of homeowner engagement with our home energy management platform, the smart doorbell camera showcases ecobee's ability to drive innovation and differentiated product development. Ecobee's strong product development capabilities, combined with their focus on creating an exceptional user experience are central to the continued build-out of our home energy ecosystem.

由於終端市場狀況疲軟，我們現在預計 2023 年全年住宅能源技術的總銷售額將比我們先前指導的 3 億美元低約 10%。 Ecobee 繼續與戰略零售合作夥伴在智慧恆溫器市場上佔據市場份額，該團隊於 10 月成功推出了我們的新型智慧門鈴攝影機。除了提高房主對我們的家庭能源管理平台的參與度之外，智慧門鈴攝影機還展示了 ecobee 推動創新和差異化產品開發的能力。 Ecobee 強大的產品開發能力，加上他們對創造卓越使用者體驗的專注，是我們家庭能源生態系統持續建立的核心。

Also during the third quarter, we announced the opening of a new engineering center of excellence in Reno, Nevada. This facility will house the development and testing of batteries, switches, power electronics and other clean energy solutions as we continue to invest in the R&D infrastructure and world-class talent that is required to develop and test the innovative residential energy technology solutions we're bringing to the market in the years ahead.

同樣在第三季度，我們宣佈在內華達州里諾市開設一個新的卓越工程中心。該設施將用於電池、開關、電力電子和其他清潔能源解決方案的開發和測試，因為我們將繼續投資研發基礎設施和世界一流的人才，以開發和測試我們正在開發的創新住宅能源技術解決方案。將在未來幾年推向市場。

Additionally, our grid services team was awarded a $50 million grant from the Department of Energy in the month of October as part of the grid resilience and innovation partnerships program to pursue a project demonstrating the efficient building electrification can be achieved while minimizing system overload, reliability issues and the need for infrastructure upgrades.

此外，我們的電網服務團隊於10 月獲得了能源部5000 萬美元的撥款，作為電網彈性和創新合作夥伴計劃的一部分，以開展一個項目，證明可以實現高效的建築電氣化，同時最大限度地減少系統過載和可靠性問題和基礎設施升級的需要。

We're proud to receive this validation of our vision to utilize multiple energy technologies to support homeowners while providing valuable products and services that benefit both the grid and homeowners. I now want to provide commentary on our C&I products, which continue to outperform our expectations in the quarter.

我們很自豪能夠獲得這一願景的驗證，即利用多種能源技術來支持房主，同時提供有價值的產品和服務，使電網和房主都受益。我現在想對我們的 C&I 產品發表評論，這些產品在本季繼續超出我們的預期。

Domestic C&I product sales grew at a robust rate compared to the prior year as strength in shipments to customers for beyond standby applications and industrial distributors more than offset weaknesses in the telecom channel during the quarter. Shipments of natural gas generators used in applications beyond traditional emergency standby projects, again grew at an exceptional rate during the third quarter. We believe we're in the very early innings of this compelling new market opportunity as ongoing grid stability concerns and volatile energy markets drive interest in these solutions. These emerging applications are just one of the many ways that we're leveraging our position as the leading provider of natural gas generators to support increased adoption of energy technology solutions in C&I end markets.

與前一年相比，國內工商業產品銷售成長強勁，因為本季向超待機應用客戶和工業分銷商的出貨量強勁，足以抵消電信通路的疲軟。用於傳統緊急備用項目之外的應用的天然氣發電機的出貨量在第三季度再次以驚人的速度增長。我們相信，我們正處於這一引人注目的新市場機會的早期階段，因為持續的電網穩定性問題和不穩定的能源市場激發了人們對這些解決方案的興趣。這些新興應用只是我們利用天然氣發電機領先供應商的地位來支持工商業終端市場更多採用能源技術解決方案的眾多方式之一。

We also continue to build an increasingly comprehensive solution set to enable the deployment of our products in multi-asset applications, such as pairing our smart grid ready generators with our emerging C&I storage, connectivity, advanced controls and grid services platforms. Shipments of C&I generators through our North American distributor channel also grew again at a strong rate.

我們也繼續建立日益全面的解決方案集，以便在多資產應用中部署我們的產品，例如將我們的智慧電網就緒發電機與我們新興的 C&I 儲存、連接、高級控制和電網服務平台配對。透過我們的北美經銷商通路的工商業發電機出貨量也再次強勁成長。

Quoting activity remained resilient in the quarter, growing on a year-over-year basis and supporting our expectations for continued growth in this important channel that serves a wide range of end markets. As previously disclosed, order patterns from rental companies have moderated after several quarters of exceptional performance. And third quarter sales to our national and independent rental equipment customers were approximately flat from the prior year. Despite the expected near-term softness, we continue to expect that this historically cyclical end market has a substantially long-term runway for growth given the critical need for future infrastructure-related projects that leverage our products sold to this channel.

本季報價活動保持彈性，年成長，支持了我們對這項服務於廣泛終端市場的重要管道持續成長的預期。正如之前所揭露的，租賃公司的訂單模式在經歷了幾個季度的出色表現後已經放緩。第三季對我們的全國和獨立租賃設備客戶的銷售額與去年同期基本持平。儘管預計近期會出現疲軟，但考慮到未來基礎設施相關項目對利用我們向該通路銷售的產品的迫切需求，我們仍然預計這個具有歷史週期性的終端市場具有長期的成長跑道。

As expected, sales to national telecom customers declined during the third quarter as compared to a strong prior year comparison. While we continue to expect shipment and order trends for these products to be softer in the coming quarters, we believe investment in telecom infrastructure remains a secular trend as global tower and network hub counts further expand and the increasingly critical nature of wireless communications requires backup power for resiliency. While we're seeing near-term softness in the telecom and rental channels as previously expected, the longer-term growth opportunity for backup power and energy technology solutions in C&I end markets remain significant.

正如預期的那樣，第三季對全國電信客戶的銷售額與去年同期相比有所下降。雖然我們繼續預期未來幾季這些產品的出貨量和訂單趨勢將趨於疲軟，但我們認為，隨著全球鐵塔和網路中心數量進一步擴大，以及無線通訊日益關鍵的本質需要備用電源，電信基礎設施的投資仍然是長期趨勢為了彈性。雖然我們看到電信和租賃通路近期表現疲軟，但工商業終端市場的備用電源和能源技術解決方案的長期成長機會仍然巨大。

To help serve the expected future demand growth, we recently announced an expansion project in Beaver Dam, Wisconsin, which is scheduled to be complete in early 2025, and will expand our manufacturing capabilities and capacity for a range of C&I stationary products for the North American market.

為了幫助滿足預期的未來需求成長，我們最近宣布了在威斯康辛州 Beaver Dam 的擴建項目，該項目計劃於 2025 年初完工，並將擴大我們為北美地區提供的一系列工商業固定產品的製造能力和產能市場。

Total sales for our international segment increased 14% year-over-year during the third quarter with the combined impact of acquisitions and favorable foreign currency effects contributing approximately 11% sales growth. Core total sales growth was driven by strength in important long-term growth markets such as India, Latin America, Australia and the Middle East, partially offset by lower portable generator sales in Europe as energy security concerns in the region have moderated from peak levels seen in prior quarters.

第三季度，我們國際部門的總銷售額年增 14%，收購和有利的外匯影響的綜合影響貢獻了約 11% 的銷售額成長。核心總銷售額的成長是由印度、拉丁美洲、澳洲和中東等重要長期成長市場的強勁推動的，但部分被歐洲便攜式發電機銷量下降所抵消，因為該地區的能源安全擔憂已從峰值水平有所緩解在之前的幾個季度。

International growth remains an important strategic focus as we replicate the Generac playbook in a growing number of regions around the world. Geographic expansion, together with the increasing breadth of our product portfolio of backup power and energy technology solutions is expected to drive continued growth in the segment. Power resiliency concerns related to increasingly severe and volatile weather and rising supply/demand imbalances are not unique to North America. And as the global energy transition accelerates amid rising geopolitical tensions, we will continue to support businesses and homeowners in solving for their energy resiliency needs.

隨著我們在全球越來越多的地區複製 Generac 策略，國際成長仍然是一個重要的戰略重點。地理擴張以及我們的備用電源和能源技術解決方案產品組合的不斷擴大預計將推動該領域的持續成長。與日益嚴峻和不穩定的天氣以及日益嚴重的供需失衡相關的電力彈性問題並非北美獨有。隨著地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，全球能源轉型加速，我們將繼續支持企業和房主解決其能源彈性需求。

In closing this morning, our third quarter results and reiteration of our full year 2023 overall net sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance reflect improving operating performance and the hard work and strong execution by our teams. We believe we're moving closer to more sustainable levels of field inventory for home standby generators as we experienced positive momentum in key fundamental metrics during the third quarter, supporting our expectation for a return to year-over-year sales growth for these products in the fourth quarter and 2024. These sales growth expectations, together with the return to margin expansion and robust free cash flow generation, validate our commitment to a long-term focus on executing our powering a Smarter World enterprise strategy. We will continue to invest for future growth and position Generac's growing residential and C&I energy ecosystems to drive value for homes and businesses around the world as detailed at our Investor Day in September.

今天上午結束時，我們的第三季業績以及對 2023 年全年整體淨銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 指導的重申反映了經營業績的改善以及我們團隊的辛勤工作和強有力的執行力。我們相信，隨著第三季度我們在關鍵基本指標上經歷了積極的勢頭，我們正在朝著更可持續的家用備用發電機現場庫存水平邁進，這支持了我們對這些產品在2019 年恢復同比銷售成長的預期。第四季和 2024 年。這些銷售成長預期，加上利潤率擴張的回歸和強勁的自由現金流生成，證實了我們對長期專注於執行支援智慧世界企業策略的承諾。我們將繼續為未來成長進行投資，並定位 Generac 不斷發展的住宅和工商業能源生態系統，以推動世界各地家庭和企業的價值，正如我們在 9 月的投資者日所詳細介紹的那樣。

The megatrends that support the longer-term demand for growth profile for backup power and energy technology solutions remain firmly intact, and we maintain our conviction that Generac is uniquely positioned to lead the evolution to a more resilient, efficient and sustainable energy future.

支援備用電源和能源技術解決方案長期成長需求的大趨勢仍然完好無損，我們堅信 Generac 具有獨特的優勢，能夠引領向更有彈性、更有效率和永續的能源未來的發展。

I'll now turn the call over to York to provide further details on our third quarter results and our remaining outlook for the year. York?

我現在將把電話轉給約克，提供有關我們第三季業績和今年剩餘前景的更多詳細資訊。約克？

Thanks, Aaron. Looking at our third quarter 2023 results in more detail. Overall net sales decreased 2% to $1.07 billion during the third quarter of 2023 as compared to $1.09 billion in the prior year third quarter. The combination of contributions from recent acquisitions and the favorable impact from foreign currency had an approximate 2% net favorable impact on revenue growth during the quarter.

謝謝，亞倫。更詳細地了解我們的 2023 年第三季業績。 2023 年第三季整體淨銷售額下降 2%，至 10.7 億美元，去年第三季為 10.9 億美元。最近收購的貢獻和外匯的有利影響相結合，對該季度的收入成長產生了約 2% 的淨有利影響。

Briefly looking at consolidated net sales for the third quarter by product class, residential product sales declined 15% to $565 million as compared to $664 million in the prior year. As Aaron discussed in detail, lower shipments of home standby and portable generators drove this decline in residential product sales. To a lesser extent, chore and clean energy products also contributed to the year-over-year decline, partially offset by growth in ecobee Smart thermostats sales.

簡要分析第三季按產品類別劃分的綜合淨銷售額，住宅產品銷售額較上年同期的 6.64 億美元下降 15%，至 5.65 億美元。正如亞倫詳細討論的那樣，家庭備用和便攜式發電機的出貨量下降導致了住宅產品銷售的下降。在較小程度上，家務和清潔能源產品也導致了同比下降，但部分被 Ecobee 智慧恆溫器銷售的成長所抵消。

Commercial and industrial product sales for the third quarter of 2023 increased 24% to $385 million as compared to $311 million in the prior year quarter. Contributions from recent acquisitions and the favorable impact of foreign currency contributed approximately 5% revenue growth in the quarter. This strong core sales growth was driven by an increase in domestic shipments to industrial distributors and direct customers for beyond standby applications as well as a more modest growth in international shipments of C&I products. As expected, shipments to our telecom customers were down sharply compared to prior year.

2023 年第三季商業和工業產品銷售額成長 24%，達到 3.85 億美元，去年同期為 3.11 億美元。近期收購的貢獻和外匯的有利影響為本季營收成長貢獻了約 5%。這一強勁的核心銷售成長是由工業分銷商和超待機應用直接客戶的國內出貨量增加以及工商業產品國際出貨量的溫和成長所推動的。正如預期的那樣，我們向電信客戶的發貨量與去年相比大幅下降。

Net sales for other products and services increased 7% to $121 million as compared to $113 million in the third quarter of 2022. Core sales growth of 6% was primarily due to growth in sales of parts and accessories, company-owned industrial distributor project and service revenue and Energy Technology grid services revenue.

其他產品和服務的淨銷售額增長 7%，達到 1.21 億美元，而 2022 年第三季為 1.13 億美元。核心銷售額增長 6%，主要是由於零件和配件、公司擁有的工業分銷商項目和服務收入和能源技術電網服務收入。

Gross profit margin was 35.1% compared to 33.2% in the prior year third quarter as a result of lower raw material and logistics costs, production efficiencies and marginally higher pricing compared to the prior year. This was partially offset by the impact of unfavorable sales mix, primarily driven by lower home standby shipments in the current year quarter.

由於原材料和物流成本降低、生產效率提高以及定價較上年略高，第三季毛利率為 35.1%，而上年第三季為 33.2%。這部分被不利銷售組合的影響所抵消，主要是由於本季家庭備用出貨量下降所致。

Operating expenses decreased $3 million or 1% as compared to the third quarter of 2022. As highlighted in our reconciliation schedules in the earnings release, the current year quarter included a $22 million provision for legal charges related to certain ecobee patent litigation matters. The prior year includes $55 million of charges comprised of $18 million of bad debt expense related to a clean energy product customer that filed for bankruptcy and a $37 million charge for clean energy product warranty-related matters.

與2022 年第三季相比，營運費用減少了300 萬美元，即1%。正如我們在收益發布中的對帳時間表中所強調的那樣，本季度包括與某些ecobee 專利訴訟事項相關的法律費用的2200 萬美元撥備。上一年包括 5500 萬美元的費用，其中包括與申請破產的清潔能源產品客戶相關的 1800 萬美元壞帳費用以及與清潔能源產品保固相關事宜相關的 3700 萬美元費用。

Excluding these items in the current and prior year, operating expenses increased by $31 million or 14%, primarily driven by increased employee and marketing costs in the current year period and a favorable contingent consideration adjustment in the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA before deducting for noncontrolling interest, as defined in our earnings release, was $189 million or 17.6% of net sales in the third quarter as compared to $184 million or 16.9% of net sales in the prior year. This improved EBITDA percent was primarily driven by higher gross margins as compared to the prior year, partially offset by an increase in operating expenses as we continue to invest for future growth.

排除本年度和上一年的這些項目，營運費用增加了 3,100 萬美元，即 14%，主要是由於本年度員工和行銷成本增加以及上一年期間有利的或有對價調整。根據我們的收益發布中的定義，扣除非控股權益前的調整後EBITDA 為1.89 億美元，佔第三季淨銷售額的17.6%，而上一年為1.84 億美元，佔淨銷售額的16.9% 。 EBITDA 百分比的提高主要是由於毛利率較上年提高，但隨著我們繼續投資未來成長，營運費用的增加部分抵消了這一增長。

I will now briefly discuss financial results for our 2 reporting segments. Domestic segment total sales, including intersegment sales, decreased 6% to $894 million in the quarter as compared to $947 million in the prior year, with minimal favorable impact from acquisitions. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $160 million, representing 17.9% of total sales as compared to $160 million in the prior year or 16.9% of total sales.

我現在將簡要討論我們兩個報告分部的財務表現。本季國內部門總銷售額（包括部門間銷售額）下降 6%，至 8.94 億美元，去年同期為 9.47 億美元，收購帶來的有利影響微乎其微。該部門調整後 EBITDA 為 1.6 億美元，佔總銷售額的 17.9%，而前一年為 1.6 億美元，佔總銷售額的 16.9%。

International segment total sales, including intersegment sales, increased 14% to $208 million in the quarter as compared to $183 million in the prior year quarter. Core sales, which excludes the impact of acquisitions and currency, increased approximately 3% compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment before deducting for noncontrolling interest was $28 million or 13.6% of net sales as compared to $24 million or 13.2% of net sales in the prior year.

本季國際部門總銷售額（包括部門間銷售額）成長了 14%，達到 2.08 億美元，去年同期為 1.83 億美元。排除收購和貨幣影響的核心銷售額比上年增長約 3%。在扣除非控制權益之前，該部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 2,800 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 13.6%，而前一年為 2,400 萬美元，佔淨銷售額的 13.2%。

Now switching back to our financial performance for the third quarter of 2023 on a consolidated basis. As disclosed in our earnings release, GAAP net income for the company in the quarter was $60 million as compared to $58 million in the third quarter of 2022. In addition to the items just discussed, the current year net income includes approximately $9 million of additional interest expense compared to the prior year due to higher borrowings and interest rates.

現在轉回我們 2023 年第三季的合併財務表現。正如我們在財報中所披露的那樣，該公司本季的GAAP 淨利潤為6000 萬美元，而2022 年第三季為5800 萬美元。除了剛才討論的項目外，本年度淨利潤還包括約900 萬美元的額外收入與前一年相比，由於借款和利率上升，利息支出增加。

GAAP income taxes during the current year third quarter were $19 million or an effective tax rate of 24.3% as compared to $12 million or an effective tax rate of 16.1% for the prior year. The increase in the effective tax rate was primarily due to the prior year quarter, including certain favorable discrete tax items and a larger benefit from equity compensation as compared to the current year quarter.

本年度第三季的 GAAP 所得稅為 1,900 萬美元，有效稅率為 24.3%，而前一年為 1,200 萬美元，有效稅率為 16.1%。有效稅率的增加主要是由於上年季度，包括某些有利的離散稅收項目以及與本年季度相比更大的股權補償收益。

Diluted net income per share for the company on a GAAP basis was $0.97 in the third quarter of 2023 compared to $0.83 in the prior year.

2023 年第三季度，以 GAAP 計算，公司稀釋後每股淨利為 0.97 美元，而去年同期為 0.83 美元。

The strong year-over-year increase in GAAP earnings per share relative to growth in GAAP net income was primarily driven by a lower share count in the current year period, coupled with the redeemable noncontrolling interest redemption value adjustment that was recorded in the prior year period. See our earnings per share footnotes for further information on our EPS calculations.

相較於公認會計準則淨利成長，公認會計準則每股收益較去年同期強勁成長主要是由於本年度股票數量減少，加上上一年記錄的可贖回非控制權益贖回價值調整期間。有關每股收益計算的更多信息，請參閱我們的每股收益腳註。

Adjusted net income for the company, as defined in our earnings release, was $102 million in the current year quarter or $1.64 per share. This compares to adjusted net income of $112 million in the prior year or $1.75 per share.

根據我們的收益發布中的定義，該公司本季調整後淨利潤為 1.02 億美元，即每股 1.64 美元。相比之下，上一年調整後淨利為 1.12 億美元，即每股 1.75 美元。

Cash flow from operations was $140 million as compared to minus $56 million in the prior year third quarter, and free cash flow, as defined in our earnings release, was $117 million as compared to minus $73 million in the same quarter last year. The increase in free cash flow was primarily due to a significant use of cash for working capital in the prior year period that did not repeat in the current year quarter, partially offset by higher interest payments and capital expenditures.

營運現金流為 1.4 億美元，而去年第三季為負 5,600 萬美元；根據我們的收益發布中的定義，自由現金流為 1.17 億美元，而去年同期為負 7,300 萬美元。自由現金流的增加主要是由於去年同期大量使用現金作為營運資金，而本季沒有重複這種情況，但部分被利息支付和資本支出的增加所抵消。

Total debt outstanding at the end of the quarter was $1.58 billion, resulting in a gross debt leverage ratio at the end of the third quarter of 2.6x on an as-reported basis. Additionally, during the third quarter, we repurchased approximately 876,000 shares of our common stock for $100 million. There is approximately $178 million remaining on our current share repurchase authorization as of the end of the third quarter.

本季末未償債務總額為 15.8 億美元，導致第三季末的總債務槓桿率為報告的 2.6 倍。此外，在第三季度，我們以 1 億美元回購了約 876,000 股普通股。截至第三季末，我們目前的股票回購授權尚剩餘約 1.78 億美元。

With that, I will now provide further comments on our remaining outlook for 2023. As disclosed in our press release this morning, we're maintaining our overall net sales outlook for the full year 2023. We continue to expect overall net sales for the full year to decline between minus 10% to minus 12% as compared to the prior year, which includes approximately 2% net favorable impact from acquisitions and foreign currency.

至此，我現在將對2023 年的剩餘展望提供進一步的評論。正如我們今天上午的新聞稿中所披露的，我們維持2023 年全年的總體淨銷售額展望。我們繼續預計2023 年全年的總體淨銷售額與前一年相比，今年下降了-10%至-12%，其中包括收購和外匯帶來的約2%的淨有利影響。

Looking at the product class mix, given the outperformance of C&I products and softness in Chore and clean energy products during the third quarter, we now expect the mix of C&I product shipments for the full year to be approximately 100 basis points higher relative to our previous guidance, with the offset in residential product shipment mix.

從產品類別結構來看，考慮到第三季工商業產品的優異表現以及家務和清潔能源產品的疲軟，我們現在預計全年工商業產品的出貨量組合將比我們之前的預測高出約100 個基點。指導，與住宅產品出貨組合的抵銷。

Our gross margin expectations for the full year 2023 are also unchanged as we still anticipate approximately 100 basis points of gross margin improvement over 2022 levels, driven primarily by favorable price cost benefits, partially offset by the unfavorable mix impact resulting from lower home standby generator sales for the full year.

我們對2023 年全年毛利率的預期也保持不變，因為我們仍然預計毛利率將比2022 年的水平提高約100 個基點，這主要是由於有利的價格成本效益推動的，但部分被家庭備用發電機銷量下降造成的不利組合影響所抵消全年。

Our adjusted EBITDA margins before deducting for noncontrolling interests are still expected to be approximately 15.5% to 16.5% for the full year, implying that fourth quarter 2023 EBITDA margins would be over 20%, a significant improvement over prior year fourth quarter. We expect to generate strong operating free cash flow in the fourth quarter, resulting in an adjusted net income to free cash flow conversion at well over 100% for the full year as inventory levels are projected to further moderate. This return to robust free cash flow generation allows for continued capital allocation optionality as we move through the remainder of the year.

在扣除非控股權益之前，我們調整後的全年EBITDA 利潤率仍預計約為15.5% 至16.5%，這意味著2023 年第四季EBITDA 利潤率將超過20%，比去年第四季有顯著改善。我們預計第四季將產生強勁的營運自由現金流，隨著庫存水準預計將進一步放緩，全年調整後淨利潤與自由現金流的轉換率將遠超 100%。強勁的自由現金流產生的回歸使得我們在今年剩餘時間裡能夠繼續擁有資本配置的選擇性。

We're also providing updated guidance details to assist with modeling adjusted EPS and free cash flow for the full year 2023. Importantly, to arrive at appropriate estimates for adjusted net income and adjusted EPS, add-back items should be reflected net of tax using the expected effective tax rate. For 2023, our GAAP effective tax rate is still expected to be approximately 25%. Interest expense is now expected to be approximately $95 million compared to the prior guidance of approximately $92 million due to higher projected interest rates and borrowings.

我們也提供更新的指導細節，以協助對2023 年全年調整後每股收益和自由現金流進行建模。重要的是，為了對調整後淨收入和調整後每股收益進行適當的估計，回加項目應使用稅後淨額來反映預期有效稅率。 2023 年，我們的 GAAP 有效稅率預計仍約為 25%。由於預計利率和借款較高，目前預計利息支出約為 9,500 萬美元，而先前的指引為約 9,200 萬美元。

Our capital expenditures are still projected to be approximately 3% of our forecasted net sales for the year. Depreciation expense is still forecast to be approximately $62 million in 2023. GAAP intangible amortization expense is now expected to be approximately $104 million during the year as compared to the previous guidance of $102 million. Stock compensation expense is still expected to be between $40 million to $43 million for the year.

我們的資本支出預計仍占我們今年預測淨銷售額的 3% 左右。預計 2023 年折舊費用仍約為 6,200 萬美元。年內 GAAP 無形攤銷費用預計約為 1.04 億美元，而先前的指引為 1.02 億美元。預計今年的股票補償費用仍將在 4,000 萬美元至 4,300 萬美元之間。

Given the share repurchases executed during the third quarter of 2023, our full year weighted average diluted share count is now expected to decrease to approximately 62.3 million shares. And finally, this 2023 outlook does not reflect potential additional acquisitions or share repurchases that could drive incremental shareholder value.

鑑於 2023 年第三季執行的股份回購，我們的全年加權平均稀釋股份數量目前預計將減少至約 6,230 萬股。最後，2023 年的展望並未反映出可能增加股東價值的潛在額外收購或股票回購。

This concludes our prepared remarks. At this time, we'd like to open up the call for questions.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。此時，我們想開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Tommy Moll with Stephens Inc.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Tommy Moll 與 Stephens Inc. 的線路。

Aaron, maybe no big surprise here. I wanted to start on your comments regarding the home standby field inventory. I think I heard you say that units were lower quarter-over-quarter. And so my related question was, can you give us an update on the times normal? I think last quarter, it was 1.2 to 1.3. Where do we sit today? And what additional commentary, can you give us, in particular, on the wholesale and retail channels?

亞倫，也許這並不奇怪。我想先談談您對家庭備用現場庫存的評論。我想我聽到你說單位數量環比下降。我的相關問題是，您能給我們正常時間的最新情況嗎？我認為上個季度是 1.2 到 1.3。今天我們坐在哪裡？您能給我們什麼額外的評論，特別是關於批發和零售通路的評論嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Tommy. Yes, we did say this morning that inventories continue -- field inventories continue to come down. And the way we phrased it, they're reaching a more sustainable level because we're definitely seeing areas as we noted, I think, not only at our Investor Day, but maybe even on the last call, where we have certain regions and certain models, certain channels like our dealer channel, in particular, that are feeling like we're kind of at normal. And they're back to the whole question of what is normal, right? I mean we picked a pre-COVID kind of average to say what that is. And so we continue to work towards that and making good progress.

是的。謝謝，湯米。是的，我們今天早上確實說過庫存仍在繼續——現場庫存繼續下降。用我們的措辭方式來說，它們正在達到更可持續的水平，因為我們肯定會看到我們所指出的領域，我認為，不僅在我們的投資者日，甚至可能在最後一次電話會議上，我們有某些地區和某些型號、某些通路（尤其是我們的經銷商通路）感覺我們有點正常。他們又回到了什麼是正常的整個問題，對嗎？我的意思是，我們選擇了新冠疫情之前的平均值來說明這一點。因此，我們將繼續為此努力並取得良好進展。

We're still undershipping the market in terms of overall end market demand. So -- but it's narrowing up. It's not nearly what it was earlier this year. We were severely undershipping the market earlier this year. That's why the results were what they were. And as we get closer to kind of that, I would call it, in-line shipping to market end market demand, you're seeing the impact of that on the results, both in the gross margin level as well as EBITDA margins.

就終端市場的整體需求而言，我們的出貨量仍然不足。所以——但範圍正在縮小。這與今年稍早的情況相差甚遠。今年早些時候，我們的市場出貨量嚴重不足。這就是為什麼結果是這樣的。當我們越來越接近這種情況時，我稱之為在線運輸到市場終端市場需求，您會看到它對結果的影響，無論是毛利率水平還是 EBITDA 利潤率。

We're able to really focus on improving the efficiency in our factories because we're taking up our production rates to get closer to that end market demand. The really good news is we continue to see end market demand remain quite strong for home standby. And that's in spite of having -- it's really kind of a light season relative to the third quarter here. Outages in total were above average, the long-term average. And of course, there were a lot of well-publicized articles around potential outages with some of the demand -- supply-demand challenges that remain out there. But we feel really good about where the category is at. And we feel like as we've been saying all along, as we finish up the year here and we get into 2024, we're going to be much, much closer to normal at all channels.

我們能夠真正專注於提高工廠的效率，因為我們正在提高生產力，以更接近終端市場的需求。真正的好消息是我們繼續看到終端市場對家庭待機的需求仍然相當強勁。儘管如此，與第三季度相比，這確實是一個輕鬆的季節。停電總數高於長期平均。當然，有許多關於潛在停電的廣為人知的文章，但仍存在一些需求——供需挑戰。但我們對該類別的定位感到非常滿意。我們覺得，正如我們一直以來所說的那樣，當我們結束這一年並進入 2024 年時，我們的所有管道都將更加接近正常。

And so the other part of your question on wholesale and retail. As we've said in the past, if you look at all kind of the 3 major channels as we think about them dealer, wholesale and retail, dealer feels like it's closest to normal, wholesale would be next in line and then retail would be a little bit further out. But they're all approaching a more normal level.

所以你的問題的另一部分是關於批發和零售的。正如我們過去所說，如果你看看我們考慮的所有 3 個主要通路，即經銷商、批發和零售，經銷商感覺最接近正常，批發將是下一個，然後是零售。稍微遠一點。但它們都接近更正常的水平。

And your next question comes from the line of Michael Halloran with Baird.

你的下一個問題來自邁克爾·哈洛倫（Michael Halloran）和貝爾德（Baird）的對話。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Mike.

麥克風。

Mute? No.

沉默的？不。

I think we need to come back to Mike.

我想我們需要回到麥克身上。

Yes. We might have to come back to Mike.

是的。我們可能得回到麥克的身邊。

Okay. Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

好的。您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Jeff Hammond。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Jeff, are you there?

傑夫，你在嗎？

Problematic.

有問題的。

I think we need to.....

我認為我們需要......

Should try the next one.

應該嘗試下一個。

Can you try the next one? Operator.

你能嘗試下一個嗎？操作員。

All right. Next question is from Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer.

好的。下一個問題是克里斯多福·格林和奧本海默提出的。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can hear you, Chris.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音，克里斯。

Loud and clear.

響亮清晰。

Great. So I was just curious about dealer and close rate productivity. I know you're doing a lot with dealers. You had a bit of an explosion during the pandemic, a little bit of a lack of training that you're catching up on. So just curious how that productivity selling commercial is playing out and what percent of HSB sales go through the dealer channel, where I think you said the inventories are now about normal in fact?

偉大的。所以我只是對經銷商和成交率生產力感到好奇。我知道您與經銷商做了很多工作。在大流行期間，你經歷了一些爆發，有點缺乏你正在趕上的訓練。所以只是好奇生產力銷售廣告是如何發揮作用的，以及 HSB 銷售的百分比是透過經銷商管道進行的，我認為您所說的庫存現在實際上處於正常水平？

Yes. Thanks, Chris. So the majority of the sales, as we say, more than 50% go through that dealer channel. It's a really important channel for us. Our wholesale and retail channels are important channels as well, but the dealer channel with 8,700 dealers is clearly a critical area of focus for us. And of course, the bandwidth in that dealer channel around sales and installation and service as the market grows, we've got over 3 million units in the field. That's a really important area.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。因此，正如我們所說，超過 50% 的銷售是透過經銷商管道進行的。這對我們來說是一個非常重要的管道。我們的批發和零售通路也是重要的通路，但擁有 8,700 家經銷商的經銷商通路顯然是我們重點關注的領域。當然，隨著市場的成長，經銷商通路在銷售、安裝和服務方面的頻寬，我們在該領域的銷售量已超過 300 萬台。這是一個非常重要的領域。

As far as close rates, that is the channel that we can measure close rates on because we have our PowerPlay sales system is offered through that channel. So it's a way for them to quote and sell product. And so we get really good visibility into close rates by dealer, by product, by region. And as we said on the last call, close rates have kind of flattened out, and that's how they've kind of played out similar to that. Actually, I mean, we've seen some near-term improvement here, but we're not ready to call it a new trend up, but the month of October has been relatively good. It's -- you have to think of it in the context, this is a look back, right? So when we talk about close rates, we have a window of time, we look back because it takes time for quotes to mature to a point of -- for us to make a call on whether it's closed as a sale or not.

就成交率而言，這是我們可以衡量成交率的管道，因為我們的 PowerPlay 銷售系統是透過該管道提供的。所以這是他們報價和銷售產品的一種方式。因此，我們可以很好地了解按經銷商、按產品、按地區劃分的成交率。正如我們在上次電話會議中所說，收盤價已經趨於平緩，這就是它們的表現與此類似。實際上，我的意思是，我們已經看到了一些近期的改善，但我們還沒有準備好稱之為新的上漲趨勢，但十月份的情況相對較好。這是——你必須在上下文中思考它，這是一個回顧，對吧？因此，當我們談論成交價格時，我們有一個時間窗口，我們會回顧，因為報價需要時間成熟到一定程度，以便我們決定它是否作為銷售結束。

But we're seeing some green shoots there, but we're not ready to quite call it a trend yet. So we've still kind of forecasted things here as being somewhat flat. The consumer, obviously, as everybody is well aware, there's some uncertainty out there looming around the consumer in certain big ticket discretionary purchase categories. But as we've said, in our category, in particular, outages tend to help us overcome any general macro weakness in the consumer. And that has been the historical case for us. And I think that might be why we saw what we saw in the third quarter is outages were above the long-term average.

但我們看到了一些萌芽，但我們還沒有準備好將其稱為一種趨勢。因此，我們仍然預測這裡的情況會有些平穩。顯然，正如每個人都清楚的那樣，消費者在某些大件可自由支配的購買類別中存在一些不確定性。但正如我們所說，特別是在我們的類別中，停電往往會幫助我們克服消費者的整體宏觀疲軟。這就是我們的歷史案例。我認為這可能就是為什麼我們在第三季看到的中斷次數高於長期平均。

And so we've seen the consumer perform quite well in our category of products. But we're keeping a very close eye on it. We want to see how things play out here for the balance of the year and into 2024. But we're encouraged by sales leads for sure. I mean October was another strong -- the third quarter was another strong quarter for us, second best quarter ever for us in terms of just sales leads. And so that's been really encouraging to see in terms of just the interest -- the overall interest and awareness in the category.

因此，我們看到消費者在我們的產品類別中表現相當出色。但我們正在密切關注它。我們希望了解今年剩餘時間和 2024 年的情況如何。但我們肯定會受到銷售線索的鼓舞。我的意思是，十月是另一個強勁的季度——第三季度對我們來說是另一個強勁的季度，就銷售線索而言，是我們有史以來第二好的季度。因此，僅從興趣方面來看，即對該類別的整體興趣和認知度，確實令人鼓舞。

Close rates maintaining.

收盤價維持不變。

Yes.

是的。

Your next question comes from Michael Halloran with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Michael Halloran 和 Baird。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Maybe not. Weird.

也許不會。詭異的。

Yes. I have to come back to Mike again.

是的。我必須再次回到麥克身邊。

Next question is from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Jeff Hammond。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

All right. We'll move on to the next question. Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

好的。我們將繼續討論下一個問題。你的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

We've got an epic fail going here in the Q&A. So -- must move to another one, operator.

我們在問答中遭遇了一次史詩般的失敗。所以——必須轉向另一位，操作員。

All right. Next question comes from the line of Mark Strouse with JPMorgan.

好的。下一個問題來自摩根大通的馬克‧斯特勞斯 (Mark Strouse)。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

We can hear you, Mark. Thankfully.

我們聽得到你的聲音，馬克。值得慶幸的是。

Great. York, you touched on this a bit, but I'm curious on the gross margin upside that was a bit higher than what you were guiding on the last call. Can you just quantify how much of that was driven by mix? I mean it's encouraging to see that higher despite the higher mix of C&I. But is there something about kind of the mix within the mix versus just kind of something more structural with your cost savings or pricing initiatives?

偉大的。約克，您談到了這一點，但我很好奇毛利率的上升幅度比您上次電話會議的指導值要高一些。您能否量化其中有多少是由混合驅動的？我的意思是，儘管 C&I 的比例更高，但看到這一數字更高還是令人鼓舞的。但是，是否存在某種混合中的混合，而不是某種更具結構性的東西，以節省成本或定價措施？

Yes. No. I mean I think in terms of year-over-year improvement, the price cost has been a very nice tailwind, really all throughout the year. And I guess the beginning part of the year, we were having, I guess, pretty, pretty significant mix headwinds at the -- this first part of the year that was offsetting that. I think what we're seeing now in the third quarter is those mix headwinds now are starting to subside as we're starting to get closer to comping prior year.

是的。不，我的意思是，我認為就逐年改善而言，價格成本一直是一個非常好的推動因素，實際上全年都是如此。我想今年年初，我們遇到了非常非常顯著的混合逆風——今年第一部分抵消了這一點。我認為我們在第三季度看到的是，隨著我們開始接近去年的水平，這些混合阻力現在開始消退。

So the positive price cost that we've been recognizing -- the vast majority of the gross margin increase is price cost with only a modest I'd say slight impact on mix year-over-year. So I think we're pleased to see some of those mix headwinds start to subside. And then when you flash forward to Q4 then, we'll obviously expect gross margins to continue to improve as we sequentially increase those home standby shipments then we'll get mix positive there, and we'll see significant year-over-year improvements in gross margin at that point because then you'll get the benefit of price cost and favorable mix. So we're pleased with the trajectory of where margins are headed and just like we had guided earlier in the year.

因此，我們一直在認識到積極的價格成本——毛利率增長的絕大部分是價格成本，我認為對同比的影響很小。因此，我認為我們很高興看到其中一些混合阻力開始消退。然後，當您進入第四季度時，我們顯然會預計毛利率將繼續提高，因為我們會依次增加這些家庭備用出貨量，然後我們將在那裡獲得積極的混合，我們將看到同比的顯著改善那時的毛利率，因為那時您將獲得價格成本和有利組合的好處。因此，我們對利潤率的發展軌跡感到滿意，就像我們今年早些時候的指導一樣。

And the next question comes from the line of Brian Drab with William Blair.

下一個問題來自布萊恩·德拉布和威廉·布萊爾的對話。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes. We got you.

是的。我們抓到你了。

We got you, Brian.

我們找到你了，布萊恩。

Okay. Well, it's not on our end, I guess, if something -- because you couldn't hear me at first. Okay. So I have a bunch of questions. Just, I guess, California. I'm curious, we haven't been talking as much about California lately, but what are you seeing in terms of the longer-term opportunity there? I didn't feel like the utilities were shutting down power as much lately. What's the penetration rate, penetration level in California today? And what's the latest thinking on -- there's a lot of rumblings around natural gas bands in different cities and counties and how has that affected demand?

好的。好吧，我想，如果有的話，這不是我們這邊的事——因為你一開始聽不到我的聲音。好的。所以我有很多問題。我猜，只是加州。我很好奇，我們最近沒有太多談論加州，但您認為那裡的長期機會是什麼？我不覺得公用事業公司最近關閉電源的次數那麼多。今天加州的滲透率、滲透程度是多少？最新的想法是什麼——不同城市和縣的天然氣頻段有很多傳言，這對需求有何影響？

Yes, Brian, California was always a small-ish market for us in terms of home standby. It grew during the well-publicized power safety shutoff events of a couple of years ago. But the penetration rate is around 2% now, so still quite underpenetrated relative to the -- I think, the full average was somewhere like 5.75% across the U.S. So slightly below that for California, a little less than 2%.

是的，布萊恩，就家庭待機而言，加州對我們來說一直是一個較小的市場。它是在幾年前廣為人知的電力安全切斷事件期間增長的。但現在的滲透率約為 2%，所以相對於——我認為，全美的整體平均滲透率約為 5.75%，略低於加州，略低於 2%。

So it still represents an area of potential growth. I think those gas bands are pretty localized. And in fact, some of them have actually been overturned in courts of law. So I don't know where that's going to ultimately go. We need natural gas as a bridge fuel to get to the other side of the full transition to renewables, gas is going to play -- NatGas is a great way to get there in terms of just the cleanliness of that fuel source and the plentiful nature of it to help us to make the transition, the energy transition.

因此它仍然代表著一個潛在成長的領域。我認為這些氣體帶非常本地化。事實上，其中一些實際上已在法庭上被推翻。所以我不知道最終會去哪裡。我們需要天然氣作為過渡燃料，以實現向再生能源全面過渡的另一邊，天然氣將發揮作用——就燃料來源的清潔度和豐富的自然資源而言，天然氣是實現這一目標的好方法它可以幫助我們實現轉型，能源轉型。

So I think it would be very shortsighted to band that gas, but that's -- I know that, that varies location to location. So -- but still opportunities there. You're right, though, I would say, in recent quarters, for sure, you haven't seen the high-profile nature of power safety shutoffs as you maybe saw them a few years ago. We did see some outage activity coming out of the kind of spring storms, winter storms of last year and IHCs were pretty robust in California. So we continue to see growth there. And again, it was a lot less than 1% before, so it's less than 2% now, so still growing and represents obviously a huge market just in terms of the opportunity in terms of the number of homes in that state.

所以我認為對這種氣體進行標記是非常短視的，但我知道，這會因地點而異。所以——但那裡仍然有機會。不過，我想說，你是對的，在最近幾個季度，你肯定沒有看到電力安全切斷的高調性質，就像幾年前你可能看到的那樣。我們確實看到去年的春季風暴和冬季風暴造成了一些停電活動，加州的 IHC 相當強勁。因此，我們繼續看到那裡的成長。再說一遍，之前這個比例遠低於 1%，所以現在也低於 2%，所以仍在增長，並且就該州房屋數量的機會而言，顯然代表著一個巨大的市場。

And the next question comes from the line of George Gianarikas with Canaccord Genuity.

下一個問題來自 George Gianarikas 與 Canaccord Genuity 的關係。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes. We got you. George.

是的。我們抓到你了。喬治。

Great. I guess, George and Generac is always powered on. So quick question on clean energy. Curious as to whether the upheaval in the market there with some of your competitors either accelerates or maybe delay some of the strategy points you talked about at your Analyst Day. Do you see more of an opportunity here near term? Or does this give you kind of comfort that you have your products coming out in the second half of next year?

偉大的。我猜，George 和 Generac 總是開機的。關於清潔能源的快速問題。很好奇您的一些競爭對手的市場劇變是否會加速或可能推遲您在分析師日談到的一些策略要點。您認為近期有更多機會嗎？或者這讓您對您的產品將於明年下半年推出感到放心？

Yes. Thanks, George. It is interesting. I mean, with the -- and we said it this morning in the prepared remarks, we're seeing softness in that solar plus storage, the residential solar plus storage market. Actually, ecobee is continuing to just -- they're posting record quarter after record quarter here, which is pretty amazing. I think new products coming out and they're killing it actually. We're doing really well with that business, and there's a lot of great things around that.

是的。謝謝，喬治。挺有趣的。我的意思是，我們今天早上在準備好的演講中說過，我們看到太陽能+儲存、住宅太陽能+儲存市場的疲軟。事實上，ecobee 正在繼續——他們在這裡發布了一個又一個創紀錄的季度記錄，這真是太神奇了。我認為新產品的出現實際上正在扼殺牠。我們在這項業務上做得非常好，並且圍繞著該業務有很多很棒的事情。

But when it comes to the storage side of the market, which we're still bullish on long term, given the structural nature of the grid transition and the policy tailwinds that should be there, we feel like the current environment, while negative, is kind of a, I think, more temporary than permanent. And so -- but the good news for us is we have a lot of new product coming next year. So I don't feel like we're missing out on maybe what's going on in the market today by having -- our product offering is fine today, but our next-generation product offering is going to -- is really going to be -- I think set us apart from the competition.

但當談到市場的儲存方面時，考慮到電網轉型的結構性和應該存在的政策順風，我們仍然長期看好市場，我們認為當前的環境雖然是負面的，但我認為，這是暫時的，而不是永久的。所以 - 但對我們來說好消息是明年我們將推出許多新產品。因此，我不認為我們錯過了今天市場上正在發生的事情，因為我們今天提供的產品很好，但我們的下一代產品將會 - 真的會 - - 我認為我們在競爭中脫穎而出。

I think it's going to establish us as the leader, we think we can be in that marketplace going forward or a leader. I think we all know we struggled with our -- the acquired products initially. And I think we've worked very hard and will be working very hard over the next 12 months to bring the new products we have to market. We've got a huge team working on that. It's why the level of investment, as we said at our Investor Day, is so heavy. And we do believe in it long term.

我認為這將使我們成為領導者，我們認為我們可以在這個市場中前進或成為領導者。我想我們都知道我們最初在收購產品方面遇到了困難。我認為我們已經非常努力，並將在接下來的 12 個月內非常努力地將我們的新產品推向市場。我們有一個龐大的團隊致力於此。正如我們在投資者日所說，這就是為什麼投資水平如此之大。我們確實相信它是長期的。

So I don't think to answer your question directly, I don't think it changes the trajectory necessarily of anything we're doing there. But I think it probably does soften maybe the fear of missing out, if you will, the FOMO around maybe not having leading products there today. And we just getting a pause in the market here, maybe it's just -- the timing is just good for us. But we expect to be in the market in a big way later next year with our new products, and we're pretty excited about where we're going with that.

所以我不認為直接回答你的問題，我認為這不一定會改變我們在那裡所做的任何事情的軌跡。但我認為它可能確實緩解了人們對錯過的恐懼，如果你願意的話，害怕錯過今天可能沒有領先產品的恐懼。我們只是在市場上暫停，也許這只是——時機對我們來說正好。但我們預計明年稍後我們的新產品將大規模進入市場，我們對我們的發展方向感到非常興奮。

Your next one comes from the line of Donovan Schafer with Northland Capital Markets.

您的下一篇文章來自 Northland Capital Markets 的 Donovan Schafer。

I want to follow up on the -- on close rates. So one of the things that came across talking to some dealers, is with the kind of revamped marketing campaign you guys launched or talked about at Investor Day and how you're trying to increase product category awareness among the next generation people, maybe in their 30s to 40s kind of in the middle of family formation right now. The dealers were saying they're getting more IHCs that they used to -- like they used to get IHC before COVID, they get an IHC, they go out there, and it was almost always someone 60-year-old or who has retired. It was really easy to schedule because the person didn't have a day job and this retired individual would have tons of peers who have backup generators. So there was almost no education curve or anything like that.

我想跟進接近的利率。因此，與一些經銷商交談時遇到的一件事是，你們在投資者日上發起或談論了一種改進的營銷活動，以及你們如何努力提高下一代（也許在他們的下一代）中的產品類別意識。30多歲到40多歲，現在正處於家庭組成的中期。經銷商表示，他們獲得的 IHC 數量比以前多了，就像他們在新冠疫情之前獲得 IHC 一樣，他們獲得 IHC，然後出去，幾乎都是 60 歲或已經退休的人。這真的很容易安排，因為這個人沒有日常工作，而且這個退休的人會有大量擁有備用發電機的同事。所以幾乎沒有教育曲線或類似的東西。

So I'm just curious if you think this increasing amount of IHCs coming from people in their 30s and 40s, where they have to actually schedule around work hours and other considerations and where they maybe don't know the product category as well. Is that -- do you think that, that's a material factor in close rates still being a bit below where they were historically? And if so, does that mean it could be a longer process to get back to kind of historical highs? Just anything you can -- any color you can provide on that would be great.

所以我只是好奇你是否認為越來越多的 IHC 來自 30 多歲和 40 多歲的人，他們必須實際安排工作時間和其他考慮因素，而且他們可能也不了解產品類別。您認為這是導致收盤價仍略低於歷史水準的重要因素嗎？如果是這樣，這是否意味著回到歷史高點可能需要一個更長的過程？任何你能提供的東西——任何你能提供的顏色都會很棒。

Yes. It's a great line of questioning, Donovan, and an area that I would say that in the last 12 months, we've been focusing a lot more closely on the IHCs that are coming through. And that really goes hand-in-hand with the pull down in the close rates we saw happened during COVID. We -- initially, our explanation around that was all around the long lead times of the product. And I do think that, that had a material effect on -- coming off of the high point for close rates where we were to where we dropped down to in -- during COVID. There was no doubt in our mind based on the information and feedback that we had that close rates were being impacted negatively by the long lead times for the products.

是的。 Donovan，這是一個很好的提問，我想說的是，在過去 12 個月裡，我們一直更密切地關注正在經歷的 IHC。這確實與我們在新冠疫情期間看到的收盤價下降密切相關。最初，我們對此的解釋都是圍繞著產品的較長交貨時間。我確實認為，這對在新冠疫情期間從收盤價高點跌落至下跌點產生了重大影響。根據我們掌握的資訊和回饋，我們毫無疑問地認為，產品交貨時間過長對成交率產生了負面影響。

Now as the lead times have recovered and close rates have recovered, but not to the level that -- not nearly to the level they were at, that's where you start to look at other factors. And so I think you're on to something there. And we've started as I said, over the last 12 months, to really dig into this with more vigor. And I think what we found -- one of the things that we're concluding is that the category itself. The buyers of the category have largely remained fairly concentrated in the demographic that you highlighted, over age 60, people who want to stay in their homes as long as possible. Power outages are more than just an inconvenience as you age in your home.

現在，隨著交貨時間和成交率的恢復，但還沒有達到原來的水平，這就是你開始考慮其他因素的地方。所以我認為你已經說到重點了。正如我所說，在過去 12 個月裡，我們已經開始更積極地深入研究這個問題。我認為我們發現的——我們得出的結論之一就​​是類別本身。該類別的買家很大程度上仍然相當集中在您所強調的人口中，即 60 歲以上、希望盡可能長時間留在家裡的人。當您在家中年老時，停電不僅僅是帶來不便。

And I think that, that has largely driven the category in the early days. But as the category expands and we reach different levels of penetration, we're now reaching different demographics that are interested in resiliency as much or more perhaps than some of the traditional demographics. We all live in a very digital age today. And I think, again, maybe owing to the pandemic, people are -- the way the nature of work, the way we live today is different, right? I mean, we're all working in a more hybrid nature. I'd wager a bet that some of the folks in the Q&A queue here today that we can hear anyway, are working from home rather than sitting in an office somewhere. And you can't do that if -- or you can't do it well if you're in the dark.

我認為，這在很大程度上推動了早期該類別的發展。但隨著類別的擴展以及我們達到不同的滲透水平，我們現在正在接觸不同的人群，他們對彈性的興趣與某些傳統人群一樣多，甚至可能更強烈。今天我們都生活在一個高度數位化的時代。我再次認為，也許由於大流行，人們的工作性質、我們今天的生活方式都不同了，對吧？我的意思是，我們都在更混合的環境中工作。我敢打賭，今天我們能聽到的問答隊伍中的一些人是在家工作，而不是坐在辦公室裡。如果你無法做到這一點，或者如果你在黑暗中，你就無法做好這件事。

So power outages have a bigger impact today on people and on your livelihood and maybe on your children's ability to be educated. All the things that we've taken for granted for many, many years, for doing those things from home today and we're doing it at a time when the grid has become ever more fraught with challenges in terms of uptime. And we see it. It's -- and there's some very high-profile examples, but day in and day out, there's tens of thousands of people every day in this country that suffer outages. And actually, those numbers are bigger and the outages are lasting longer.

因此，停電如今對人們和您的生計以及您孩子的教育能力產生了更大的影響。多年來我們認為理所當然的所有事情，今天都可以在家做這些事情，而且我們是在電網在正常運行時間方面變得越來越充滿挑戰的時候做這些事情的。我們看到了。有一些非常引人注目的例子，但日復一日，這個國家每天都有數萬人遭受停電之苦。事實上，這些數字更大，停電持續時間更長。

And so as we reach deeper across in terms of penetration rate, we're seeing different demographics, but your point is well taken. The learning curve or the education curve that process, the sales process is longer for different demographics that we have -- there's more salesmanship, if you will, that has to be done to educate those consumers on the product category and the options that are available. And sometimes, financing is a bigger consideration for younger demographics, right? Older demographics tend to have maybe more readily available funding that they can pay for a project like this, whereas younger demographics may have to arrange for that in a different way. So -- and that can elongate the sales process.

因此，當我們深入了解滲透率時，我們看到了不同的人口統計數據，但您的觀點得到了很好的理解。對於我們所擁有的不同人群來說，學習曲線或教育曲線、銷售過程會更長——如果你願意的話，必須採取更多的推銷技巧來教育這些消費者有關產品類別和可用選項的信息。有時，對年輕人來說，融資是更重要的考慮因素，對嗎？年齡較大的人群往往擁有更容易獲得的資金，可以支付此類項目的費用，而年輕的人群可能必須以不同的方式進行安排。所以——這可以延長銷售過程。

So we do think that, that is part of what's going on today. As we dig and continue to dig deeper, we -- Amanda Teder, our Executive VP of Marketing that spoke at the Investor Day is incredibly focused on that. She comes from a consumer product marketing background and understanding very deeply who the potential buyers are and the buyers are of our products is central to not only the messaging around marketing, but just this process of selling and also the process of nurturing, right? We talked about how we nurture sales leads. We've had to adapt our nurturing processes to adjust for some of the newer demographics we're seeing.

所以我們確實認為，這就是今天正在發生的事情的一部分。隨著我們不斷深入挖掘，我們的行銷執行副總裁 Amanda Teder 在投資者日上發言時非常關注這一點。她來自消費品行銷背景，非常深入了解潛在買家是誰以及我們產品的買家不僅對於行銷訊息的核心，而且對於銷售過程和培育過程都至關重要，對吧？我們討論如何培養銷售線索。我們必須調整我們的培養流程，以適應我們所看到的一些新的人口統計。

So anyway, a lot of cool things coming there. We're putting a lot of science behind it. And I feel like we've got an appropriate level of calorie burn against it, but it's -- I think it's -- these are -- these are good problems to have. I think longer term, I think we're going to figure them out and it's going to potentially continue to widen out the category as we grow and the penetration rate grows.

不管怎樣，那裡有很多很酷的東西。我們在背後投入了大量的科學知識。我覺得我們已經有適當的卡路里燃燒水平來對抗它，但我認為這些都是很好的問題。我認為從長遠來看，我認為我們將弄清楚它們，並且隨著我們的發展和滲透率的增長，它可能會繼續擴大該類別。

And your next question comes from the line of Jon Windham with UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Jon Windham。

Perfect. Congrats on the good result. I wanted to dive back into ecobee a little bit. So, obviously, it's a product that's having quite some success. I'm just curious if you could talk through how far along you are in pulling the levers to incentivize installers to sell the value proposition of that product? Is there still more things you can do to incentivize installers there? Or do you feel that's pretty rolled out already?

完美的。恭喜取得好成績。我想再深入一點 Ecobee。所以，顯然，這是一個取得了相當成功的產品。我只是好奇您能否談談您在激勵安裝人員銷售該產品的價值主張方面採取了多大的措施？您還可以採取更多措施來激勵那裡的安裝人員嗎？或者你覺得這已經很普及了嗎？

Yes. Thanks, John. Yes, ecobee has been having a lot of success here recently. I think a lot of that -- I don't want to be overly basic about the explanation here, but obviously, energy costs continue to rise. And as energy costs go up, I think homeowners are -- I think they're in search of ways to save money. And there's a very strong payback on an ecobee Smart Thermostat. You can save upwards of 40% of your energy costs annually by using a smart thermostat.

是的。謝謝，約翰。是的，ecobee 最近在這裡取得了巨大的成功。我想了很多——我不想在這裡給出過於基本的解釋，但顯然，能源成本持續上升。隨著能源成本的上升，我認為房主們正在尋找省錢的方法。 Ecobee 智慧恆溫器的回報非常可觀。使用智慧恆溫器，您每年可以節省 40% 以上的能源成本。

And this is not a product that you basically just set a regular schedule for that you can remotely check the temperature on. I mean that's -- those are basic features. There are 2 stack companies out there that are offering those features and calling themselves smart thermostats. These are -- those are not smart thermostats. The ecobee thermostat is different in that, it actually learns your patterns in terms of when you're home, when you're not. There are sensors in the home that give it context around occupancy, and it can adjust for different variables, both heating and cooling, preheating, precooling. There are some really cool things that it does. And it looks at energy costs in your market to make some of the decisions it's making on your behalf or with your input.

這不是一個你基本上可以設定一個定期時間表來遠端檢查溫度的產品。我的意思是──這些是基本特徵。有兩家堆疊公司提供這些功能並稱自己為智慧恆溫器。這些不是智慧恆溫器。 Ecobee恆溫器的不同之處在於，它實際上會根據您在家和不在家的時間來學習您的模式。家裡有感測器可以提供居住環境，它可以根據不同的變數進行調整，包括加熱和冷卻、預熱、預冷。它做了一些非常酷的事情。它還會考慮您所在市場的能源成本，以代表您或根據您的意見做出一些決策。

And so these are, I think, really strong and important considerations for why we think the smart thermostat category, in particular, is growing and why ecobee's solution is the best offering in that category. And that's something that when you think about, to your question about installers, I mean I think installers, they do -- they try to offer, I think, the value prop or to extend the value prop in their sales process. But I think it really comes down to the homeowner requesting that, right? And I think what installers appreciate mostly is the ease of installation and the level of technical support that they get from ecobee. The level of support from ecobee whether you're a homeowner or whether you're a contractor installing the product is phenomenal.

因此，我認為，這些都是非常強大且重要的考慮因素，解釋了為什麼我們認為智慧恆溫器類別正在不斷增長，以及為什麼 Ecobee 的解決方案是該類別中的最佳產品。當你思考關於安裝人員的問題時，我的意思是我認為安裝人員確實這樣做——我認為他們試圖提供價值支撐或在銷售過程中擴展價值支撐。但我認為這確實取決於房主的要求，對嗎？我認為安裝者最欣賞的是安裝的簡單性以及他們從 ecobee 獲得的技術支援水平。無論您是房主還是安裝產品的承包商，ecobee 的支援水平都是驚人的。

And that's what wins the day with an installer. It can win the day with a homeowner as well. But I think for installation, from an installer standpoint, time is money. So if you're dealing with a product that doesn't have great support and you have challenges with that, and you're not able to get answers to the questions you need in a timely fashion, you're wasting time, you're wasting money. If you have an ecobee thermostat and you have a problem or you have a technical question, you can get a response very quickly and a high-quality response at that. And so they get incredibly high marks for technical support. And I think that's why installers largely are choosing the product over other options in the marketplace.

這就是安裝程式獲勝的原因。它也可以贏得房主的青睞。但我認為對於安裝來說，從安裝人員的角度來看，時間就是金錢。因此，如果您正在處理的產品沒有很好的支持，並且您遇到了挑戰，並且您無法及時獲得所需問題的答案，那麼您就是在浪費時間，您'又浪費錢了。如果您有 Ecobee 恆溫器並且遇到問題或技術問題，您可以非常快速地獲得高品質的答案。因此他們在技術支援方面獲得了令人難以置信的高分。我認為這就是安裝人員在很大程度上選擇該產品而不是市場上其他產品的原因。

And we have a question from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Jeff Hammond 向我們提出了一個問題。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Third time is not a charm.

第三次就不是魅力了。

Yes, I guess, it's not a charm. I don't know what -- I don't think it's on the call set?

是的，我想，這不是魅力。我不知道什麼——我認為它不在通話設定中？

I don't know.

我不知道。

The conference call set? Well, we'll follow up with you, Jeff.

電話會議定了嗎？好吧，我們會跟進你的情況，傑夫。

Sorry about that.

對於那個很抱歉。

Moving on to the next question. Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Gengaro with Stifel.

繼續下一個問題。你的下一個問題來自 Stephen Gengaro 和 Stifel 的對話。

All right. I tell you my generator has been a lot more reliable than some of these questions so far. So I was just curious, you talked about underselling demand still so far as you work through the inventory channels. As we think about the dynamics, I know it's early to tell, but as we think about dynamics into next year, do you think you get back to kind of a more normalized annual growth rate in '24?

好的。我告訴你，到目前為止，我的生成器比其中一些問題可靠得多。所以我只是很好奇，就您透過庫存管道開展工作而言，您仍然談到了銷售不足的需求。當我們考慮動態時，我知道現在下結論還為時過早，但當我們考慮明年的動態時，您認為您會在 24 年恢復到更正常化的年增長率嗎？

Yes. I mean, obviously, you won't have the headwinds that we've had with bringing field inventory down. We've been undershipping

是的。我的意思是，顯然，您不會遇到我們在降低現場庫存方面遇到的阻力。我們的出貨量一直不足

that.....

那.....

From that standpoint, it will be more normalized, but....

從這個角度來看，它會更加正常化，但是......

And so just -- I mean, just in terms of raw shipments, we'll -- we should see growth that way in that home standby business. Your question maybe is more like will activations grow, installations grow, which is our proxy for, I guess, sales in terms of the end market that way? We obviously are -- we're evaluating market conditions, IHCs. Again, second best on record. So that obviously is a leading indicator. So we got....

因此，我的意思是，就原始出貨量而言，我們應該看到家庭備用業務的成長。您的問題可能更像是激活量是否會增長、安裝量是否會增長，我想這是我們終端市場銷售的代表？顯然，我們正在評估市場狀況、IHC。再次創下史上第二好成績。所以這顯然是一個領先指標。所以我們得到了....

But let's be clear, I mean, over the category's history over the last 20 years, it's grown 15% on a compounded basis. So it just hasn't been in a straight line. And this time around, it definitely wasn't in a straight line because of the field inventory challenge that we've had as a persistent headwind this year. It's getting better, but it's really lasted the full year. So I mean I'm confident longer term, the category is going to continue to grow. It is still by far the most cost-effective way to deal with the power outage.

但我們要明確一點，我的意思是，在過去 20 年的歷史中，該類別的複合成長率為 15%。所以它就是沒有走一條直線。而這一次，由於今年我們面臨的持續阻力，現場庫存挑戰，它絕對不是一條直線。情況正在好轉，但確實持續了一整年。所以我的意思是，從長遠來看，我有信心該類別將繼續增長。這仍然是迄今為止處理停電最具成本效益的方法。

And outages are -- you look at the long-term baseline average and these are numbers that are readily available from third-party collectors, the government data, FERC and NERC and others who focus on reliability, the statistics don't lie. I mean power outages are on the rise, and they're lasting longer. We hear it from customers who are frustrated. There's another outage in Michigan today. Michigan has just been hammered by outages, and that's one of the reasons why it's a really good market for us penetration-wise. I mean pen rates in Michigan are over 15%, which is -- 15% of all single-family homes over $150,000 in value have a home standby generator installed, which is -- and you think about that for a second, you put that in context. And I think it tells you where the pen rate can go, right? I mean pen rate nationally is 5.75%, and we're -- at states like Michigan, which is a major state, it's at 15%.

停電情況是——你看看長期基線平均值，這些數字很容易從第三方收集者、政府數據、FERC 和 NERC 以及其他關注可靠性的機構獲得，統計數據不會撒謊。我的意思是停電事件正在增加，而且持續時間更長。我們從感到沮喪的客戶那裡聽到了這樣的說法。今天密西根州又發生一次停電。密西根州剛剛遭受了停電的打擊，這就是為什麼它對我們來說是一個非常好的市場滲透率的原因之一。我的意思是密西根州的筆率超過 15%，也就是說，在所有價值超過 150,000 美元的單戶住宅中，有 15% 安裝了家用備用發電機，這是——你想一下，你把它在上下文中。我認為它告訴你筆費可以走向何方，對嗎？我的意思是，全國的筆使用率是 5.75%，而像密西根州這樣的州，這是一個主要州，這一比例是 15%。

So -- and every 1% of pen rate is a $3 billion market opportunity. So you start adding that up and the numbers get really big, really fast. And we're at 75% share there, maybe even a little better than that. And that's something that I think from a focal area is obviously something we put a lot of effort against as we look forward. But in terms of just whether that's going to happen next year or not in terms of normalized growth rate, there's a lot of factors that go into that. But longer term, it's definitely a category that is going to continue to grow.

因此，每 1% 的筆費率就意味著 30 億美元的市場機會。所以你開始把它加起來，數字就會變得非常大、非常快。我們在那裡佔有 75% 的份額，甚至可能比這個還要好一點。我認為從重點領域來看，這顯然是我們在展望未來時投入大量精力的事情。但就明年的正常成長率是否會發生而言，有許多因素影響。但從長遠來看，它絕對是一個將繼續成長的類別。

Yes. We typically short-term guide without any major events. And as you know, those happen. So that's always a catalyst for growth over the longer term. So that -- those are obviously the drivers. And then all the megatrends around that we've talked about for a while that are driving the demand for the category higher, those are still intact.

是的。我們通常會在沒有任何重大事件的情況下進行短期指導。如你所知，這些都會發生。因此，從長遠來看，這始終是成長的催化劑。所以——這些顯然是驅動因素。然後，我們已經討論了一段時間的所有大趨勢都推動了對該類別的需求更高，但這些趨勢仍然完好無損。

And the next question comes from the line of Jordan Levy with Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Jordan Levy 與 Truist Securities 的對話。

It's Henry on for Jordan here. I was wondering if you could dig a bit deeper into some of the different dynamics you're seeing between the U.S. and the international C&I segments in the business. And that how some of those segments you're looking for 2024?

亨利替補喬丹登場。我想知道您是否可以更深入地了解美國和國際工商業領域之間的一些不同動態。您在 2024 年尋找的某些細分市場怎麼樣？

Yes. So it's a great, great question. Thanks. In the U.S., we have outsized market verticals, I would say, in telecom and the national rental channels as well, which I'll roll up in that C&I. So in the U.S., as we've said, national accounts, national rental accounts have -- last couple of quarters have cooled off. They were heavy buyers of equipment last year and even earlier this year, that's cooled off as I think there's some broader slowdowns in just some of the C&I markets overall. I think, owing to some of the higher interest rate environment that we're in today, new construction, you look at the Architectural Billings Index last month being or like a couple of weeks ago being quite a bit softer.

是的。所以這是一個非常非常好的問題。謝謝。我想說，在美國，我們在電信和全國租賃通路方面擁有巨大的垂直市場，我將在 C&I 中對此進行介紹。因此，正如我們所說，在美國，國民帳戶、國民租金帳戶在過去幾季已經降溫。去年，甚至今年早些時候，他們是設備的大量購買者，但這種情況已經降溫，因為我認為總體而言，只有部分工商業市場出現了更廣泛的放緩。我認為，由於我們今天所處的利率較高的環境，新建築，你會看到上個月的建築比林斯指數或幾週前的情況相當疲軟。

I think you're starting to see that and feel that. Certainly, we're in the rental markets as we said. And then the other large vertical for us is telecom, which is also slowed down considerably here. The CapEx spend for the large telcos, I think, has been reined in a bit just as they wait to see what the end markets look like for the wireless consumer. And I think you're going to see that on a long-term basis, both of those verticals are going to be growing long term. They are just in the short term here pulled back.

我想你已經開始看到這一點並感受到這一點了。當然，正如我們所說，我們正處於租賃市場。對我們來說另一個大型垂直產業是電信，它的發展速度也大幅放緩。我認為，大型電信公司的資本支出已經受到了一定程度的控制，因為他們正在等待無線消費者的終端市場是什麼樣子。我認為你會看到，從長遠來看，這兩個垂直領域都將長期成長。他們只是在短期內被回調。

So that's a dynamic that differs from, I would say, the rest of the world. We do sell into telecom and we sell equipment rental companies as well. But in terms of just their outsized nature of the size of those verticals here in the U.S., they're bigger. Outside of -- when you get outside the U.S., I would say one of the areas that -- for C&I that we've seen great interest for backup power has been in Europe with, I think, some of the war with Russia, Ukraine and just the concerns around energy security in the C&I space that impacts businesses. It may have had concerned about power interruptions last winter. That's abated a bit, I think, in recent quarters, but we're heading into winter and that's something that could pick back up, but we're watching that. But I would say that's a unique consideration when you get outside the U.S.

我想說，這是一種與世界其他地區不同的動態。我們確實向電信公司銷售產品，也向設備租賃公司銷售產品。但就美國這些垂直產業的規模而言，它們更大。在美國以外，我想說的是，對於工商業和工業部門來說，我們對備用電源錶現出極大興趣的地區之一是在歐洲，我認為，歐洲與俄羅斯、烏克蘭發生了一些戰爭以及對影響企業的工商業領域能源安全的擔憂。它可能擔心去年冬天停電。我認為，最近幾個季度，這種情況有所減弱，但我們即將進入冬季，這種情況可能會回升，但我們正在觀察這種情況。但我想說，當你離開美國時，這是一個獨特的考慮因素。

And then there are some markets that are -- when we called them out this morning in the call in our prepared remarks, but there's a couple of markets that are growing in their importance. India being one of those where we're a leader in natural gas gen sets. We have a factory there and a business there in India that's been doing quite well. We continue to see demand in the Middle East for our products, which are -- there's quite a bit of, I think, around higher energy prices. I think the Middle East has continued to move forward in terms of their economies, and that's reflected in our order rates from that part of the world.

然後還有一些市場——當我們今天早上在電話會議中在我們準備好的演講中指出這些市場時，但有幾個市場的重要性正在增長。印度是我們在天然氣發電機組領域處於領先地位的國家之一。我們在那裡有一家工廠，在印度也有一家生意做得很好。我們繼續看到中東對我們產品的需求，我認為，這很大程度上是因為能源價格上漲。我認為中東的經濟繼續向前發展，這反映在我們來自世界該地區的訂單率上。

And so those -- I think there are some specific areas, Australia is another area of market that we continue to see nice improvements in our growth rates. So I think that kind of just some of the dynamics to give you a little flavor of that. I think the business outside the U.S. for us is highly concentrated in Europe, though. We don't have as much exposure to Africa. We have some limited exposure to Asia. South America is a nice market for us and a growing market as well, but it's relatively small relative to the size of Europe. But I think that's probably the most color unless York, I'm missing anything there.

因此，我認為有一些特定領域，澳洲是另一個市場領域，我們繼續看到成長率的良好改善。所以我認為這只是一些動態，可以帶給你一點味道。不過，我認為我們在美國以外的業務高度集中在歐洲。我們對非洲的了解不多。我們對亞洲的投資有限。南美洲對我們來說是一個不錯的市場，也是一個不斷成長的市場，但相對於歐洲的規模而言，它相對較小。但我認為這可能是最有色彩的，除非約克，我錯過了那裡的任何東西。

Yes. I think the IDCs have been hanging in there too domestically.....

是的。我覺得國內的IDC也一直掛在那裡....

Our industrial distributors have been doing quite well here in the U.S. and we're gaining market share there.

我們的工業分銷商在美國的表現一直很好，我們正在那裡獲得市場份額。

And your next question comes from the line of Keith Housum with North Coast Research.

您的下一個問題來自北海岸研究中心的 Keith Housum。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

We had a good string, or we not?

我們有一根好弦，還是沒有？

We did. Two in a row.

我們做到了。連續兩個。

Moving on. Next question is from Chip Moore with ROTH MKM.

繼續。下一個問題來自 ROTH MKM 的 Chip Moore。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes. Chip.

是的。晶片.

Fantastic. I wanted to follow up on some of the green shoots you talked about for consults and close rates as it relates to the current housing market. Just -- I guess I'm curious if you'd expect to see any impacts from a slowdown there in this higher rate environment? Or is this maybe a situation where people might decide to stay in their houses longer and pull the trigger? Just curious what you're seeing there.

極好的。我想跟進您談到的一些與當前房地產市場相關的諮詢和成交價格的萌芽。只是——我想我很好奇，在這種高利率環境下，您是否期望看到經濟放緩帶來的任何影響？或者在這種情況下，人們可能會決定在自己的房子裡待更長時間並扣動扳機？只是好奇你在那裡看到了什麼。

Yes. Thanks, Chip. Yes, the -- obviously, there's puts and takes, I think, with that, with housing. First of all, it's really less than 20% of our sales going to new housing. So I would say with housing starts at those slow and as they slow, not as big of an impact on us. Most of what we do is to -- is retrofitting existing housing with products. And then that gets to kind of the question of for most people, how long do you stay in your house. And if housing turnover slows down because of the higher rate environment, does that mean that people are going to start to look at projects in their house and think about that or is there some dampening of the enthusiasm around that even because of the higher cost of money for borrowing either against your house or just the concerns, overall economic concerns that consumers might have.

是的。謝謝，奇普。是的，很明顯，我認為，住房方面也有看跌期權和索取期權。首先，我們的銷售額中只有不到 20% 用於新房。因此，我想說的是，隨著住房開工速度的放緩，對我們的影響並不大。我們所做的大部分工作是用產品改造現有的住房。對大多數人來說，這就牽涉到一個問題：你要在家裡待多久。如果由於利率較高的環境而導致住房週轉率放緩，這是否意味著人們將開始考慮自己房屋中的項目並思考這一點，或者即使由於房屋成本較高，圍繞這一點的熱情是否也會受到一些抑制以您的房屋為抵押借款的資金，或只是消費者可能存在的擔憂、總體經濟擔憂的資金。

Those things have to play out yet. I would say that, again, kind of consistent with our previous remarks on this, is that when outages happen, the one thing we do know is that homeowners generally have a list in their head of like things they want to do to their house. And a generator is probably on that list somewhere from most people, depending on how many outages they've had and how long outages have lasted. But when they get an outage, that category of product tends to move up on their list. And outages tend to trump some of the other macro things that you might see around housing or the consumer as the economy cycles. And we've seen this time and time again in our history in the business is if we get the outages, people will re-prioritize their spending. Maybe they won't hold off on that kitchen remodel or putting in a pool or doing a bath remodel or taken a family vacation even in some cases, they reallocate their consumer dollars, they're spending to other categories that they deem more important.

這些事情還得解決。我想說的是，與我們之前對此的評論一致的是，當發生停電時，我們確實知道的一件事是，房主通常會在他們的腦海中列出一份他們想要對他們的房子做的事情的清單。對大多數人來說，發電機可能在這個清單上的某個地方，這取決於他們停電的次數以及停電持續的時間。但當他們遇到停電時，該類別的產品往往會在他們的清單中上升。隨著經濟週期的發展，停電往往會勝過你可能在住房或消費者方面看到的其他一些宏觀問題。在我們的業務歷史中，我們一次又一次地看到這樣的情況：如果停電，人們將重新確定支出的優先順序。也許他們不會推遲廚房改造、建造游泳池、改造浴室或家庭度假，甚至在某些情況下，他們會重新分配消費者的資金，將錢花在他們認為更重要的其他類別上。

And so as outages -- and again, this is the -- underpinning all of this is you have to have a belief that power outages are going to be on the rise, and they're going to last longer. They're going to be happening more frequently and they're going to last longer. The data bears that out, everything else that we've been talking about here would indicate that, that is going to be the case for the next several decades, just as the grid goes through a transition. And as that happens, I think that even though we may run into some economic cycles here that could put pressure on the consumer, I think as long as the outages happen, we feel pretty good about where we're going to be.

因此，停電——再說一次——這一切的基礎是，你必須相信停電將會增加，而且持續時間會更長。它們會更頻繁地發生並且持續時間更長。數據證明了這一點，我們在這裡討論的所有其他內容都表明，未來幾十年都會出現這種情況，就像電網經歷轉型一樣。當這種情況發生時，我認為即使我們可能會遇到一些可能給消費者帶來壓力的經濟週期，但我認為只要發生停電，我們就會對自己的處境感到非常滿意。

And we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Kris Rosemann.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。我現在將把電話轉回克里斯·羅斯曼。

I want to thank everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings results with you in mid-February. Thank you again, and goodbye.

我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待在 2 月中旬與您討論我們第四季和 2023 年全年的獲利結果。再次感謝您，再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。