(GNRC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter Full Year 2022 Generac Holdings Inc. Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mike Harris, Senior VP, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持，歡迎來到 Generac Holdings Inc. 2022 年第四季度全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給今天的演講者，公司發展和投資者關係高級副總裁 Mike Harris。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. With me today is Aaron Jagdfeld, President and Chief Executive Officer; and York Ragen, Chief Financial Officer. We will begin our call today by commenting on forward-looking statements. Certain statements made during this presentation as well as other information provided from time to time by Generac or its employees may contain forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in these forward-looking statements.

早上好，歡迎來到我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年財報電話會議。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Aaron Jagdfeld；和首席財務官 York Ragen。今天，我們將通過評論前瞻性陳述來開始我們的電話會議。本演示文稿中的某些陳述以及 Generac 或其員工不時提供的其他信息可能包含前瞻性陳述，並涉及可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中的結果大不相同的風險和不確定性。

Please see our earnings release or SEC filings for a list of words or expressions that identify such statements and the associated risk factors. In addition, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures during today's call. Additional information regarding these measures, including reconciliation to comparable U.S. GAAP measures, is available in our earnings release and SEC filings. I will now turn the call over to Aaron.

請參閱我們的收益發布或美國證券交易委員會備案文件，以獲取識別此類陳述和相關風險因素的單詞或表達列表。此外，我們將在今天的電話會議中提及某些非 GAAP 指標。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比較的美國 GAAP 措施的調節，可在我們的收益發布和美國證券交易委員會備案文件中找到。我現在將把電話轉給 Aaron。

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Our fourth quarter results reflect continued strong momentum in our commercial and industrial product categories during the quarter, but softer residential product sales resulted in consolidated net sales at the low end of our previous guidance range. Specifically, higher home standby field inventory levels continue to impact orders and shipments in the fourth quarter, and clean energy product shipments were lower as we work to further improve the reliability of these products and expand our distribution capabilities.

謝謝，邁克。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。我們第四季度的業績反映了本季度我們的商業和工業產品類別的持續強勁勢頭，但住宅產品銷售疲軟導致綜合淨銷售額處於我們先前指導範圍的低端。具體而言，較高的家庭備用現場庫存水平繼續影響第四季度的訂單和出貨量，清潔能源產品出貨量較低，因為我們致力於進一步提高這些產品的可靠性並擴大我們的分銷能力。

Year-over-year, overall net sales decreased 2% to $1.05 billion and core sales declined 7% during the quarter. Residential product sales decreased 19% from the prior year, due to the previously mentioned home standby and clean energy product headwinds. C&I product sales increased 27% on a year-over-year basis, with robust core sales growth across all channels domestically and all regions internationally. Adjusted EBITDA margins declined during the quarter as the unfavorable effect of sales mix, reduced operating leverage and the increase in recurring operating expenses from recent acquisitions, were partially offset by favorable price cost dynamics.

與去年同期相比，本季度整體淨銷售額下降 2% 至 10.5 億美元，核心銷售額下降 7%。由於前面提到的家庭備用和清潔能源產品逆風，住宅產品銷售額比上一年下降了 19%。 C&I 產品銷售額同比增長 27%，國內所有渠道和國際所有地區的核心銷售增長強勁。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在本季度有所下降，原因是銷售組合的不利影響、運營槓桿的降低以及近期收購導致的經常性運營費用增加，部分被有利的價格成本動態所抵消。

For the full year 2022, Generac achieved another year of record top line growth, with total net sales increasing 22% over 2021, which marked our third consecutive year of double-digit growth. While residential product shipments faced headwinds in the second half of 2022, the category still experienced strong year-over-year growth of approximately 19%. Additionally, sales of our C&I products have never been stronger, as global shipments grew 26% over the prior year, resulting in $1.26 billion in annual sales. We exited 2022 with record backlog for these products, setting our expectations for another strong year in 2023.

2022 年全年，Generac 又實現了創紀錄的收入增長，總淨銷售額比 2021 年增長了 22%，這是我們連續第三年實現兩位數增長。儘管住宅產品出貨量在 2022 年下半年面臨逆風，但該類別仍實現了約 19% 的強勁同比增長。此外，我們的 C&I 產品銷售從未如此強勁，全球出貨量比上一年增長 26%，年銷售額達到 12.6 億美元。我們在 2022 年以這些產品的積壓記錄結束，設定了我們對 2023 年又一個強勁年份的預期。

In addition to record net sales, our International segment achieved all-time highs in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins for the year as we continue to benefit from increasing global demand for backup power and mobile products. Also, our strong liquidity position allowed us to opportunistically repurchase more than 2.7 million shares during the year. Before discussing fourth quarter results in more detail, I want to provide an update on the progress we made over the course of the year to advance our evolution into an energy technology solutions company and discuss the continued development of the powerful megatrends that are driving our business.

除了創紀錄的淨銷售額外，由於我們繼續受益於全球對備用電源和移動產品不斷增長的需求，我們的國際業務部門的調整後 EBITDA 和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率也創下歷史新高。此外，我們強大的流動性狀況使我們能夠在年內機會主義地回購超過 270 萬股股票。在更詳細地討論第四季度業績之前，我想介紹一下我們在這一年中為推動我們向能源技術解決方案公司的發展所取得的進展，並討論推動我們業務發展的強大大趨勢的持續發展.

Despite the softer second half of 2022 for our residential products, we continue to make important progress in building out our portfolio of energy technology-related solutions during the year. Importantly, we began assembling a significantly deeper and more experienced leadership team focused on improving and advancing our clean energy products and distribution capabilities while further integrating the multiple energy technology investments we've made in recent years. We also continue to develop and invest in numerous new technologies and capabilities, including taking a minority equity interest investment in WATT Fuel cell, acquiring Blue Pillar and launching our single pane of glass initiative.

儘管我們的住宅產品在 2022 年下半年表現疲軟，但我們在這一年中繼續在構建與能源技術相關的解決方案組合方面取得重要進展。重要的是，我們開始組建一支更深入、經驗更豐富的領導團隊，專注於改進和提升我們的清潔能源產品和分銷能力，同時進一步整合我們近年來進行的多項能源技術投資。我們還繼續開發和投資眾多新技術和能力，包括對 WATT Fuel cell 進行少數股權投資、收購 Blue Pillar 以及啟動我們的單一管理平台計劃。

Blue Pillar's capabilities provide us with the foundation for connecting our growing portfolio of C&I-focused energy technology solutions, while our single pane of glass initiative is focused on developing the end user interface or central hub of our smart home energy ecosystem and heavily leverages ecobee's platform development expertise. We also brought multiple new solutions to market during the year as we began shipping our second-generation load control device called PWRmanager, launched a line of portable battery solutions called Portable Power Stations and announced new EV charging solutions for utilities and EV owners.

Blue Pillar 的能力為我們提供了連接我們不斷增長的以 C&I 為中心的能源技術解決方案組合的基礎，而我們的單一管理平台計劃則專注於開發我們智能家居能源生態系統的最終用戶界面或中央樞紐，並在很大程度上利用了 ecobee 的平台發展專長。在這一年中，我們還向市場推出了多種新解決方案，因為我們開始發售名為 PWRmanager 的第二代負載控制設備，推出了一系列名為便攜式電站的便攜式電池解決方案，並宣布了面向公用事業和 EV 車主的新 EV 充電解決方案。

Our grid services team also announced several additional project wins during 2022 and had a strong year across several key operating metrics. Additionally, the megatrends that drive the long-term growth trajectory of our business became even more evident in 2022. Extreme weather and multiple high-profile outage events further highlighted the poor reliability of the U.S. power grid, while war and geopolitical instability in Europe forced consumers and businesses to evaluate the importance of energy security.

我們的網格服務團隊還宣佈在 2022 年贏得了幾個額外的項目，並且在幾個關鍵運營指標方面表現強勁。此外，推動我們業務長期增長軌蹟的大趨勢在 2022 年變得更加明顯。極端天氣和多次引人注目的停電事件進一步凸顯了美國電網的可靠性差，而歐洲的戰爭和地緣政治不穩定迫使消費者和企業評估能源安全的重要性。

The home is a sanctuary and aging in place trends that are helping drive demand for residential backup power solutions remain very compelling. A structural shift in consumer preferences and work habits in the U.S. in recent years has further increased sensitivity to power outages with the percentage of individuals working from home tripling and home health referral volumes doubling since 2019. As the effects of climate change become increasingly evident, the policy backdrop for our energy technology solutions has never been more favorable, most notably with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, providing additional conviction for us to maintain a long-term focus with our investments in energy technology.

家庭是一個避難所和老齡化趨勢，這有助於推動對住宅備用電源解決方案的需求仍然非常引人注目。近年來，美國消費者偏好和工作習慣的結構性轉變進一步增加了對停電的敏感性，自 2019 年以來，在家工作的個人比例增加了兩倍，家庭健康轉診量翻了一番。隨著氣候變化的影響越來越明顯，我們的能源技術解決方案的政策背景從未像現在這樣有利，最顯著的是 2022 年通貨膨脹減少法案的通過，這讓我們更有信心保持對能源技術投資的長期關注。

Additionally, increased federal infrastructure spending and the ongoing upgrade of global telecom networks help support our future growth expectations for our C&I products as well. The massive changes taking place with our nation's power grid are yet another megatrend that continues to strengthen as growing demand for electricity is met with less reliable supply. According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or NERC, approximately 25% of Americans are at high risk of resource adequacy shortfalls during normal seasonal peak conditions in the 2023 to 2027 period due to the growing supply/demand imbalances across our power grid.

此外，聯邦基礎設施支出的增加和全球電信網絡的持續升級也有助於支持我們對 C&I 產品的未來增長預期。我們國家電網發生的巨大變化是另一個大趨勢，隨著不斷增長的電力需求和不太可靠的供應而不斷加強。根據北美電力可靠性公司 (NERC) 的數據，在 2023 年至 2027 年的正常季節性高峰條件下，由於整個電網供需失衡的加劇，大約 25% 的美國人面臨資源充足性短缺的高風險。

With the electrification of everything trends accelerating and the growing penetration of EVs, coupled with an increasingly higher mix of supply from intermittent renewable power generation sources, we believe this megatrend will drive a significant focus on the need for power resiliency for years to come. NERC's high-risk categorization comes before considering the notable increase in severe and volatile weather we've witnessed in recent years, which we believe only further magnifies the need for reliable decentralized energy technology solutions.

隨著一切趨勢的電氣化加速和電動汽車的日益普及，加上間歇性可再生能源的供應組合越來越多，我們相信這一大趨勢將推動人們在未來幾年內重點關注電力彈性需求。 NERC 的高風險分類是在考慮近年來我們目睹的惡劣和多變天氣顯著增加之前出現的，我們認為這只會進一步擴大對可靠的分散式能源技術解決方案的需求。

Now discussing our fourth quarter results in more detail. Residential product sales declined at a double-digit rate as compared to the prior year, primarily driven by lower home standby shipments in the quarter resulting from higher field inventory levels. However, end market conditions continued to be strong during the quarter. Baseline power outage activity in the U.S. was above the long-term average with Winter Storm Elliott and other larger localized outages providing yet another stark reminder of the fragility of our electrical infrastructure.

現在更詳細地討論我們的第四季度業績。與上一年相比，住宅產品銷售額以兩位數的速度下降，這主要是由於現場庫存水平較高導致本季度家庭備用出貨量下降。然而，本季度終端市場狀況依然強勁。美國的基線停電活動高於長期平均水平，冬季風暴埃利奧特和其他更大規模的局部停電再次明確提醒我們電力基礎設施的脆弱性。

The extreme temperatures over the holiday season created a surge in demand for power for residential heating and coincided with supply disruptions as the nation's largest grid operator saw nearly 1/4 of its power plants fall offline resulting in rolling blackouts. This event took place in an especially inconvenient and sensitive time for many households, further supporting the continued increase in consumer awareness of the growing need for backup power solutions. Home consultations or sales leads in the quarter remained strong, matching the record high for a fourth quarter period in the prior year.

節日期間的極端氣溫導致住宅供暖用電需求激增，同時由於美國最大的電網運營商近 1/4 的發電廠停運導致輪流停電，供應中斷也同時發生。這一事件發生在對許多家庭來說特別不方便和敏感的時期，進一步支持了消費者對備用電源解決方案日益增長的需求的意識不斷增強。本季度的房屋諮詢或銷售線索依然強勁，與去年第四季度的歷史新高持平。

Additionally, home consultations for full year 2022 were more than 3x 2019 levels. This strength has continued early in 2023 with home consultations growing again on a year-over-year basis and reaching record levels for the month of January following the holiday season outage activity. We remain focused on expanding our distribution network as we experienced sequential growth in our residential dealer base and ended the quarter with more than 8,700 dealer partners, a net increase of approximately 200 dealers from the third quarter.

此外，2022 年全年的家庭諮詢量是 2019 年水平的 3 倍多。這種力量在 2023 年初繼續存在，家庭諮詢再次同比增長，並在假期停電活動後的 1 月份達到創紀錄水平。我們仍然專注於擴大我們的分銷網絡，因為我們的住宅經銷商基地經歷了連續增長，並在本季度結束時擁有超過 8,700 家經銷商合作夥伴，比第三季度淨增加約 200 家經銷商。

Activations, which are a proxy for installations, grew at a robust rate in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year and also grew sequentially as a result of increased installed bandwidth. In addition to this encouraging growth in activations and dealer count, we also experienced sequential improvement in close rates and dealer project lead times, although these 2 metrics are not yet back to normalized levels. The number of home standby generators and field inventory declined sequentially during the fourth quarter and are down more than 20% from peak levels, benefiting from reduced production rates and record activation levels in the quarter.

作為安裝量指標的激活量在第四季度與去年同期相比增長強勁，並且由於安裝帶寬的增加而連續增長。除了激活和經銷商數量的令人鼓舞的增長外，我們還經歷了成交率和經銷商項目交付時間的連續改善，儘管這 2 個指標尚未恢復到正常水平。家庭備用發電機的數量和現場庫存在第四季度連續下降，比峰值水平下降超過 20%，這得益於本季度生產率下降和創紀錄的激活水平。

Days of field inventory, which considers recent trends and activation rates, also declined sequentially during the fourth quarter. However, relative to historic seasonal patterns, days of field inventory are still well above normalized levels as of the end of 2022. We expect that field inventory levels will remain elevated through the first half of 2023, which will continue to weigh on orders and shipments of home standby generators during the first and second quarters.

考慮近期趨勢和激活率的現場庫存天數在第四季度也連續下降。然而，相對於歷史季節性模式，截至 2022 年底，現場庫存天數仍遠高於正常水平。我們預計現場庫存水平將在 2023 年上半年保持高位，這將繼續拖累訂單和出貨量第一季度和第二季度的家用備用發電機。

Improving the installation bandwidth for home standby generators is a key initiative for the company in 2023. We are focused on adding more dealers, providing support for dealer recruiting, training to improve installation efficiency and developing additional technical innovations to make it easier for contractors to install our products. Recent dealer count growth has been very encouraging as we added over 500 dealers in the second half of 2022.

提高家用備用發電機的安裝帶寬是公司 2023 年的一項重要舉措。我們專注於增加更多經銷商，為經銷商招募提供支持，提供培訓以提高安裝效率，並開發更多技術創新以使承包商更容易安裝我們的產品。最近的經銷商數量增長非常令人鼓舞，因為我們在 2022 年下半年增加了 500 多家經銷商。

We also rolled out our dealer talent network to help channel partners recruit qualified labor and are actively engaging with trade groups, such as the independent electrical contractors, to further drive awareness for the home standby generator category among contractors. Initiatives to help dealers streamline the installation process are also progressing well, including the launch of a universal permitting package that allows dealers to pull the necessary project documentation for their specific location.

我們還推出了我們的經銷商人才網絡，以幫助渠道合作夥伴招聘合格的勞動力，並積極與獨立電氣承包商等貿易團體合作，以進一步提高承包商對家用備用發電機類別的認識。幫助經銷商簡化安裝過程的舉措也進展順利，包括推出通用許可包，允許經銷商為其特定位置提取必要的項目文件。

In addition, we have further expanded our field training efforts and the sharing of installation best practices for dealers and nondealer contractors. The combination of these actions is expected to result in meaningful improvement in activation rates as the year progresses. Consistent with the comments provided on our third quarter earnings call in early November, we expect home standby sales to decline for the full year 2023 due to significant weakness in first half shipments resulting from elevated levels of field inventory with the first quarter expected to mark the trough for shipments during the current channel destocking process.

此外，我們還進一步擴大了現場培訓工作，並為經銷商和非經銷商承包商分享安裝最佳實踐。隨著時間的推移，這些行動的結合預計將導致激活率顯著提高。與我們在 11 月初的第三季度財報電話會議上提供的評論一致，我們預計 2023 年全年的家庭備用銷售將下降，原因是現場庫存水平升高導致上半年出貨量顯著疲軟，預計第一季度將標誌著當前渠道去庫存過程中的出貨量低谷。

We continue to anticipate more normalized field inventory levels in the second half of the year based on our current view of home consultations, activations and our production rates, along with the assumption of power outage activity in line with the long-term baseline average. As we ramp home standby shipments sequentially into the second half of the year, we expect home standby sales to return to solid year-over-year growth in the third and fourth quarters, even when assuming no major outage events.

根據我們目前對家庭諮詢、激活和生產率的看法，以及停電活動與長期基準平均值一致的假設，我們繼續預計下半年的現場庫存水平會更加正常。隨著我們在今年下半年連續增加家庭備用出貨量，我們預計家庭備用銷售將在第三和第四季度恢復穩定的同比增長，即使假設沒有發生重大停電事件。

Favorable end market demand metrics, significant growth in our dealer counts, low nationwide penetration in the mid-single digits and strengthening mega trends reinforce our confidence in the long-term growth trajectory for the home standby category and also support our near-term expectations for a return to growth once the home standby market reaches more normalized field inventory levels.

有利的終端市場需求指標、經銷商數量的顯著增長、全國范圍內較低的個位數滲透率以及增強的大趨勢增強了我們對家庭備用類別長期增長軌蹟的信心，也支持了我們對近期預期一旦家庭備用市場達到更正常的現場庫存水平，就會恢復增長。

I'd now like to provide some commentary on our residential energy technology products and solutions as sales were in line with the low end of our prior expectations during the fourth quarter, with continued softness in residential energy storage shipments, offset by strong top line performances from ecobee and Generac grid services. Shipments of our PWRcell energy storage systems were again negatively impacted by the loss of a large customer that ceased operations in the third quarter and the overhang of the SnapRS quality-related concerns.

我現在想對我們的住宅能源技術產品和解決方案發表一些評論，因為第四季度的銷售額符合我們先前預期的低端，住宅儲能出貨量持續疲軟，被強勁的頂線表現所抵消來自 ecobee 和 Generac 網格服務。我們的 PWRcell 儲能係統的出貨量再次受到第三季度停止運營的大客戶流失以及 SnapRS 質量相關問題的影響。

We are committed to supporting the dealers that are participating in our SnapRS warranty coverage upgrade program as well as ensuring that end customer systems are performing as intended. Channel partner response to these efforts has been favorable thus far, and we are working to build a larger and stronger network of installers and distributors, which remains a top priority for the company in 2023 as we position our residential clean energy product offering for long-term success.

我們致力於支持參與我們的 SnapRS 保修範圍升級計劃的經銷商，並確保最終客戶系統按預期運行。迄今為止，渠道合作夥伴對這些努力的反應是積極的，我們正在努力建立一個更大、更強大的安裝商和分銷商網絡，這仍然是公司在 2023 年的首要任務，因為我們將長期提供住宅清潔能源產品。期成功。

We are investing heavily on further improving the quality and reliability of our clean energy products and view the residential storage market as a key strategic opportunity for Generac. Additionally, we're making good progress towards our next-generation energy storage system, and we'll begin alpha testing of these products in the second quarter of this year with an anticipated launch to the market in 2024.

我們正在大力投資以進一步提高清潔能源產品的質量和可靠性，並將住宅儲能市場視為 Generac 的關鍵戰略機遇。此外，我們在下一代儲能係統方面取得了良好進展，我們將在今年第二季度開始對這些產品進行 alpha 測試，預計將於 2024 年投放市場。

I'd now like to provide a quick update on ecobee, which forms the core of our connected devices strategy within our residential energy ecosystem. Ecobee sales continued to grow at a strong rate in the fourth quarter, despite aggressive promotional activity from competitors, which underscores the strong competitive positioning of ecobee's feature-rich solutions. In addition to their core smart thermostat product continuing to gain traction in the professional contractor channel, a number of larger utilities have been seeking out grid service partnerships with ecobee, further validating our differentiated offering.

我現在想提供有關 ecobee 的快速更新，它構成了我們住宅能源生態系統中連接設備戰略的核心。儘管競爭對手開展了積極的促銷活動，但 Ecobee 的銷售額在第四季度繼續保持強勁增長，這凸顯了 ecobee 功能豐富的解決方案的強大競爭定位。除了他們的核心智能恆溫器產品在專業承包商渠道中繼續獲得關注外，許多大型公用事業公司一直在尋求與 ecobee 的電網服務合作夥伴關係，進一步驗證我們的差異化產品。

We also recently announced the integration of home standby monitoring capabilities into the ecobee platform, which allows homeowners to monitor their home standby generator and propane tank fuel levels and receive alerts directly on the ecobee platform. This marks an important first step forward in our single pane of glass initiative in developing the central user interface for our suite of residential products that will heavily leverage the ecobee platform and the development team.

我們最近還宣布將家庭備用監控功能集成到 ecobee 平台中，這允許房主監控他們的家庭備用發電機和丙烷罐燃料水平，並直接在 ecobee 平台上接收警報。這標誌著我們的單一管理平台計劃向前邁出了重要的第一步，為我們的住宅產品套件開發中央用戶界面，這將充分利用 ecobee 平台和開發團隊。

I also want to provide some commentary on our grid services team and their efforts as they closed out a strong year in 2022 with continued growth across key performance metrics, including connected megawatts, assets under management, number of customers and gigawatt hours of capacity delivered. The growing grid services sales pipeline is being driven by both new and existing customers as well as a wide range of connectability hardware, including the Blue Pillar acquisition, which will now provide our C&I products with connectivity capabilities to allow previously stranded C&I assets to be made available to grid services programs.

我還想對我們的電網服務團隊及其所做的工作發表一些評論，因為他們在 2022 年結束了強勁的一年，關鍵績效指標持續增長，包括連接兆瓦、管理的資產、客戶數量和交付的千兆瓦時容量。不斷增長的電網服務銷售渠道受到新客戶和現有客戶以及廣泛的連接硬件的推動，包括收購 Blue Pillar，這將為我們的 C&I 產品提供連接能力，使以前擱淺的 C&I 資產得以製造可用於網格服務程序。

In addition, grid services programs can also provide incremental economic support to the residential solar plus storage market as higher financing costs impact traditional consumer loan-driven demand. Not only can these programs improve the economics for homeowners that own storage systems but we are also seeing increased opportunities to deploy grid services programs utilizing utility and third-party-owned systems. We believe our unique portfolio of hardware and software solutions remains a key competitive advantage within the grid services space.

此外，電網服務計劃還可以為住宅太陽能加儲能市場提供增量經濟支持，因為更高的融資成本會影響傳統的消費貸款驅動的需求。這些計劃不僅可以提高擁有存儲系統的房主的經濟效益，而且我們還看到越來越多的機會利用公用事業和第三方擁有的系統部署網格服務計劃。我們相信我們獨特的硬件和軟件解決方案組合仍然是網格服務領域的關鍵競爭優勢。

The long-term market opportunities for residential energy storage, power conversion, energy monitoring and management services and grid services remains highly attractive and core to our strategic vision, and we will continue to target these markets and adjacent opportunities. To that end, we recently announced the launch of our new EV charger, which marks Generac's initial offering into this large and rapidly growing market.

住宅儲能、電力轉換、能源監控和管理服務以及電網服務的長期市場機會仍然極具吸引力，並且是我們戰略願景的核心，我們將繼續瞄準這些市場和鄰近的機會。為此，我們最近宣布推出新的 EV 充電器，這標誌著 Generac 首次向這個龐大且快速增長的市場提供產品。

This product will be available later in 2023 through Generac's omnichannel distribution network, including our residential dealer network, leading home improvement in hardware retailers and electrical wholesalers. We're excited to incorporate this product into our Smart Home Energy ecosystem while continuing to pursue future EV charging innovations and capabilities. EV charging will become an increasingly important part of the energy ecosystem of the home. And as a leader in residential power, this product is a natural extension of Generac's portfolio of energy technology solutions.

該產品將於 2023 年晚些時候通過 Generac 的全渠道分銷網絡提供，包括我們的住宅經銷商網絡、領先的硬件零售商和電器批發商的家裝。我們很高興能將該產品納入我們的智能家居能源生態系統，同時繼續追求未來的 EV 充電創新和功能。電動汽車充電將成為家庭能源生態系統中越來越重要的一部分。作為住宅電力領域的領導者，該產品是 Generac 能源技術解決方案組合的自然延伸。

Given these significant market opportunities, we continue to invest heavily in the people and processes involved in the development of these products and solutions, and this remains a key strategic area of focus for the company. We are encouraged by the progress of our new residential energy technology leadership team in integrating and improving the solutions we've acquired and developed in recent years. The investment level necessary to build a home energy technology foundation for growth will contribute to higher operating expenses as a percentage of sales for the company in 2023, but we anticipate strong returns on these investments well into the future as we position Generac as a leader in the deployment and integration of hardware and software solutions for home energy ecosystems.

鑑於這些重要的市場機會，我們繼續大力投資於開發這些產品和解決方案所涉及的人員和流程，這仍然是公司關注的關鍵戰略領域。我們對我們新的住宅能源技術領導團隊在整合和改進我們近年來獲得和開發的解決方案方面取得的進展感到鼓舞。建立家庭能源技術增長基礎所需的投資水平將導致 2023 年公司營業費用佔銷售額的百分比更高，但我們預計這些投資在未來很長一段時間內會獲得豐厚回報，因為我們將 Generac 定位為以下領域的領導者為家庭能源生態系統部署和集成硬件和軟件解決方案。

As a result of these initiatives and investments, we expect the combination of residential energy technology products and services to deliver gross sales between $300 million and $350 million for the full year 2023. We anticipate that these results will sequentially improve throughout the year, driven by strong growth from ecobee and grid services, alongside our expectations for continued improvement from our clean energy product and distribution efforts in the coming quarters.

由於這些舉措和投資，我們預計住宅能源技術產品和服務的組合將在 2023 年全年實現 3 億至 3.5 億美元的總銷售額。我們預計這些結果將在全年依次改善，受ecobee 和網格服務的強勁增長，以及我們對未來幾個季度清潔能源產品和分銷工作持續改進的預期。

Switching gears, I will now want to provide some commentary on a part of the business that has continued to outperform our expectations, as our C&I products experienced an outstanding quarter globally as sales grew by 27% as compared to the prior year, benefiting from very strong demand and higher production levels resulting from capacity expansion initiatives.

切換齒輪，我現在想對繼續超出我們預期的部分業務發表一些評論，因為我們的 C&I 產品在全球範圍內經歷了一個出色的季度，銷售額與上一年相比增長了 27%，受益於非常產能擴張舉措帶來的強勁需求和更高的生產水平。

Growth in shipments for domestic C&I products in the fourth quarter was highlighted by strength across all channels, including national rental equipment, telecom, industrial distributors and other strategic customers. We experienced continued strength in demand during the quarter as the backlog for our C&I products grew again sequentially and ended the year at record levels, giving us excellent visibility into continued growth for the category in 2023.

第四季度國內 C&I 產品出貨量的增長體現在所有渠道的強勁增長，包括全國租賃設備、電信、工業分銷商和其他戰略客戶。由於我們的 C&I 產品的積壓再次連續增長並以創紀錄的水平結束了這一年，我們在本季度經歷了持續強勁的需求，這讓我們對 2023 年該類別的持續增長有了很好的了解。

Shipments of C&I stationary generators through our North American distributor channel grew significantly again in the fourth quarter. And order trends indicate growth will continue in 2023 as backlog in the channel also increased again on a sequential basis. Quoting activity and close rates remain elevated compared to the prior year levels, highlighting our sustained market share gains as well as the durability of overall demand trends for these products.

通過我們的北美分銷商渠道的工商業固定式發電機的出貨量在第四季度再次顯著增長。訂單趨勢表明增長將在 2023 年繼續，因為渠道積壓也再次環比增加。與上一年的水平相比，報價活動和成交率仍然較高，突顯出我們持續的市場份額增長以及這些產品的總體需求趨勢的持久性。

Shipments to national telecom customers also increased at a robust rate during the fourth quarter as compared to the strong prior year comparison as several of our larger national customers continue to deploy generators to harden their existing sites and build out their fifth generation or 5G networks. Investment in telecom infrastructure remains one of the key megatrends that we expect to drive growth for our C&I products in the coming years as global tower and network hub counts further expand and the increasingly critical nature of wireless communications requires backup power for resiliency.

與去年同期相比，第四季度向國內電信客戶的出貨量也以強勁的速度增長，因為我們的一些較大的國內客戶繼續部署發電機以加強他們現有的站點並建設他們的第五代或 5G 網絡。對電信基礎設施的投資仍然是我們預計在未來幾年推動我們的 C&I 產品增長的主要大趨勢之一，因為全球塔和網絡樞紐數量進一步增加，無線通信日益重要的性質需要備用電源以實現彈性。

As the leading provider of backup power to the North American telecom market, we expect to benefit from this secular trend. We also experienced another quarter of tremendous growth with our international and independent rental equipment customers as they refresh and expand their fleets. We believe the demand environment for mobile products will remain robust in the quarters ahead, as evidenced by order growth outpacing shipment growth in the quarter and the megatrend around the critical need for infrastructure improvements continues to play out.

作為北美電信市場備用電源的領先供應商，我們預計將從這一長期趨勢中受益。隨著我們的國際和獨立租賃設備客戶更新和擴大他們的車隊，我們還經歷了另一個季度的巨大增長。我們認為，移動產品的需求環境在未來幾個季度將保持強勁，本季度訂單增長超過出貨量增長以及圍繞基礎設施改進的關鍵需求的大趨勢將繼續發揮作用。

Additionally, we're helping these customers advance their sustainability goals with solid demand for our newly introduced mobile energy storage systems and as we delivered the first containerized hydrogen fuel cell unit to a national rental customer through our recently announced distribution agreement with EODev. Strong customer interest for natural gas generators used in applications beyond traditional emergency standby projects also continued in the quarter as shipments of these products grew at an exceptional rate.

此外，我們正在幫助這些客戶通過對我們新推出的移動儲能係統的強勁需求來推進他們的可持續發展目標，因為我們通過最近宣布的與 EODev 的分銷協議向全國租賃客戶交付了第一個集裝箱式氫燃料電池單元。由於這些產品的出貨量以驚人的速度增長，客戶對用於傳統緊急備用項目以外的應用的天然氣發電機的濃厚興趣在本季度也繼續存在。

Order rates also remained strong with our quarter end backlog for these products up substantially both year-over-year and sequentially. We believe we are in the very early innings of growth for this exciting new market opportunity as grid stability concerns in volatile energy markets are expected to further drive demand for these innovative solutions. Internationally, robust momentum continued as shipments increased 22% year-over-year during the fourth quarter, with 28% core total sales growth when excluding the unfavorable impact of foreign currency.

訂單率也保持強勁，我們季度末這些產品的積壓訂單同比和環比大幅增加。我們相信，我們正處於這個令人興奮的新市場機會的早期增長階段，因為波動的能源市場對電網穩定性的擔憂預計將進一步推動對這些創新解決方案的需求。在國際上，強勁勢頭繼續保持，第四季度出貨量同比增長 22%，排除外彙的不利影響後核心總銷售額增長 28%。

Core total sales growth was driven by strength across all regions, most notably in Europe and Latin America, with intersegment sales again growing substantially in the quarter as our Generac Mexico facility continued to ramp production of telecom products for the North American market. International segment EBITDA margins also increased during the quarter, primarily due to improved operating leverage on the higher sales volumes.

核心總銷售額增長受到所有地區強勁的推動，尤其是在歐洲和拉丁美洲，隨著我們的 Generac 墨西哥工廠繼續為北美市場生產電信產品，本季度部門間銷售額再次大幅增長。國際業務部門的 EBITDA 利潤率在本季度也有所增加，這主要是由於銷量增加導致經營槓桿率提高。

The European region has seen remarkably strong demand, most notably for C&I products and portable generators, due to a heightened focus on energy independence and security. Power security concerns amid the war in Ukraine have remained, and we are providing backup generators to the region through our European sales branches. Although geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions in the region remain volatile, driving less certain long-term demand trends and market awareness of the need for resiliency is undoubtedly increased across the continent.

由於對能源獨立性和安全性的高度關注，歐洲地區的需求非常強勁，尤其是對 C&I 產品和便攜式發電機的需求。烏克蘭戰爭期間的電力安全問題仍然存在，我們正在通過我們的歐洲銷售分支機構向該地區提供備用發電機。儘管該地區的地緣政治和宏觀經濟狀況仍然不穩定，但推動不確定的長期需求趨勢和市場對彈性需求的意識無疑在整個非洲大陸有所提高。

The subsequent effect of the war on Europe's energy complex has highlighted the need for reliable on-site power resources for homes and businesses around the globe. We also recently announced the acquisition of REFU Storage Systems, a German developer and supplier of battery storage hardware products, advanced software and platform services for the commercial and industrial market. This acquisition represents our initial entrance into the large and rapidly growing C&I stationary energy storage market for behind-the-meter applications, which we view as a natural extension of our long history in the C&I backup power generation market.

戰爭對歐洲能源綜合體的後續影響凸顯了全球家庭和企業對可靠現場電力資源的需求。我們最近還宣布收購 REFU Storage Systems，這是一家為商業和工業市場提供電池存儲硬件產品、高級軟件和平台服務的德國開發商和供應商。此次收購標誌著我們首次進入大型且快速增長的 C&I 固定儲能市場，用於用戶側應用，我們認為這是我們在 C&I 備用發電市場悠久歷史的自然延伸。

Given the continued momentum in the International segment, along with strong demand fundamentals and existing backlog across domestic C&I channels, we expect net sales growth for our global C&I products to be in the mid- to high single-digit range for 2023. In closing this morning, we are encouraged by the initial progress in our action plans to address the near-term challenges that have impacted our results over the past 2 quarters. We believe we have a line of sight to normalization of home standby field inventories as we right size our production and continue to expand our installation bandwidth.

鑑於國際市場的持續增長勢頭，以及強勁的需求基本面和國內 C&I 渠道的現有積壓，我們預計 2023 年我們全球 C&I 產品的淨銷售額增長將處於中高個位數範圍內。在結束這一早上，我們的行動計劃取得了初步進展，以應對在過去兩個季度中影響我們業績的近期挑戰，這讓我們感到鼓舞。我們相信，隨著我們調整生產規模並繼續擴大我們的安裝帶寬，我們有望實現家庭備用現場庫存的正常化。

We have significantly strengthened our residential energy technology leadership team over the last 6 months, and they are driving an increased focus on quality and innovation while we further build out our product and distribution capabilities in this strategically important part of our business. Global interest in our C&I products and services has never been stronger and is well positioned to continue growing in 2023. We remain confident in the long-term strategic growth teams within our business, including the still significant penetration opportunity for home standby generators and the rapidly developing market for energy storage.

在過去的 6 個月裡，我們顯著加強了我們的住宅能源技術領導團隊，他們正在推動對質量和創新的更多關注，同時我們在這一具有戰略意義的重要業務部分進一步建立我們的產品和分銷能力。全球對我們的 C&I 產品和服務的興趣從未像現在這樣強烈，並且有望在 2023 年繼續增長。我們對我們業務中的長期戰略增長團隊充滿信心，包括家用備用發電機的仍然重要的滲透機會和快速增長的發展儲能市場。

The previously discussed megatrends that support these growth themes have never been more evident. Our refined focus on execution through our portfolio of backup power and energy technology solutions has uniquely positioned us to create value in the transition to the next-generation grid. I'm extremely confident in our team's ability to continue developing innovative products and services as we execute on our mission to lead the evolution to more resilient, efficient and sustainable energy solutions. I'll now turn the call over to York to provide further details on the fourth quarter as well as full year 2022 results and our outlook for 2023. York?

先前討論的支持這些增長主題的大趨勢從未如此明顯。通過我們的備用電源和能源技術解決方案組合，我們更加專注於執行，這使我們在向下一代電網過渡的過程中創造了獨特的價值。我對我們團隊繼續開發創新產品和服務的能力充滿信心，因為我們正在執行我們的使命，引領向更具彈性、高效和可持續的能源解決方案的發展。我現在將電話轉給約克，以提供有關第四季度和 2022 年全年業績以及我們對 2023 年的展望的更多詳細信息。約克？

Thanks, Aaron. Looking at fourth quarter 2022 results in more detail. Net sales decreased 2% to $1.05 billion during the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to $1.07 billion in the prior year fourth quarter. The combination of contributions from acquisitions and the unfavorable impact from foreign currency had an approximate 5% favorable impact on revenue growth during the quarter. Net sales for the full year 2022 increased 22% to approximately $4.56 billion, an all-time record for the company.

謝謝，亞倫。更詳細地查看 2022 年第四季度的結果。 2022 年第四季度淨銷售額下降 2% 至 10.5 億美元，而去年第四季度為 10.7 億美元。收購的貢獻和外彙的不利影響對本季度的收入增長產生了約 5% 的有利影響。 2022 年全年淨銷售額增長 22%，達到約 45.6 億美元，創下公司歷史新高。

Briefly looking at consolidated net sales for the fourth quarter by product class. Residential product sales declined 19% to $575 million as compared to $706 million in the prior year. A partial quarter of contribution from the ecobee acquisition and the slight unfavorable impact of foreign currency contributed approximately 4% of revenue growth for the quarter on a net basis. Lower shipments of home standby generators and weakness in PWRcell energy storage systems drove the decline in residential product core sales growth.

按產品類別簡要查看第四季度的合併淨銷售額。住宅產品銷售額下降 19% 至 5.75 億美元，而上一年為 7.06 億美元。 ecobee 收購的部分季度貢獻和外彙的輕微不利影響貢獻了本季度淨收入增長的約 4%。家用備用發電機出貨量下降和 PWRcell 儲能係統疲軟導致住宅產品核心銷售增長下降。

Commercial and industrial product sales for the fourth quarter of 2022 increased 27% to $361 million as compared to $284 million in the prior year quarter. Contributions from the electronic environments and Blue Pillar acquisitions were fully offset by the unfavorable impact of foreign currency during the quarter. The very strong core sales growth was broad-based across all regions internationally and all channels domestically, with particular strength in national rental equipment, telecom, industrial distributors and other direct customers for beyond standby applications.

2022 年第四季度工商業產品銷售額增長 27% 至 3.61 億美元，而去年同期為 2.84 億美元。本季度外彙的不利影響完全抵消了電子環境和 Blue Pillar 收購的貢獻。非常強勁的核心銷售增長在國際所有地區和國內所有渠道都有廣泛的基礎，在全國租賃設備、電信、工業分銷商和其他超備用應用的直接客戶中表現尤為突出。

Net sales for other products and services increased 46% to $113 million as compared to $77 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Contributions from the Electronic Environments and ecobee acquisitions contributed approximately 34% of this growth, given their additional service capabilities. Core sales growth for the category was 13% due to strong growth in our services offerings in certain parts of our business, both domestically and internationally, along with continued growth in aftermarket service parts and extended warranty revenue recognition.

與 2021 年第四季度的 7700 萬美元相比，其他產品和服務的淨銷售額增長了 46%，達到 1.13 億美元。電子環境和 ecobee 的收購貢獻了這一增長的約 34%，因為它們具有額外的服務能力。該類別的核心銷售額增長了 13%，這是由於我們在國內和國際業務的某些部分提供的服務強勁增長，以及售後服務零件的持續增長和延長保修收入確認。

Gross profit margin was 32.7% compared to 34.0% in the prior year fourth quarter as unfavorable sales mix had a meaningful negative impact during the quarter. This was partially offset by the realization of previously implemented pricing actions. Operating expenses increased $49 million or 26% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. This increase was primarily driven by higher recurring operating expenses from recent acquisitions and unfavorable adjustment for acquisition contingent consideration, certain legal and regulatory reserves, higher intangible amortization expense and increased employee and marketing costs.

毛利率為 32.7%，而去年第四季度為 34.0%，因為不利的銷售組合在本季度產生了顯著的負面影響。這部分被之前實施的定價行動的實現所抵消。與 2021 年第四季度相比，運營費用增加了 4900 萬美元或 26%。這一增長主要是由於近期收購的經常性運營費用增加以及對收購或有對價的不利調整、某些法律和監管儲備、更高的無形攤銷費用以及增加的員工和營銷成本。

These increases were partially offset by lower acquisition-related transaction costs in the current year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA before deducting for noncontrolling interest, as defined in our earnings release, was $174 million or 16.6% of net sales in the fourth quarter as compared to $220 million or 20.7% of net sales in the prior year. For the full year 2022, adjusted EBITDA before deducting for noncontrolling interest was $825 million or an 18.1% margin as compared to $861 million or 23.1% margin in the prior year.

這些增長部分被本年度季度較低的收購相關交易成本所抵消。扣除非控股權益之前的調整後 EBITDA（根據我們的收益發布定義）為 1.74 億美元，佔第四季度淨銷售額的 16.6%，而去年同期為 2.2 億美元，占淨銷售額的 20.7%。 2022 年全年，扣除非控股權益前的調整後 EBITDA 為 8.25 億美元或 18.1% 的利潤率，而上一年為 8.61 億美元或 23.1% 的利潤率。

I will now briefly discuss financial results for our 2 reporting segments. Domestic segment total sales, including intersegment sales, decreased 3% to $881 million in the quarter as compared to $909 million in the prior year, with the impact of acquisitions contributing approximately 7% revenue growth for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $144 million, representing a 16.4% margin as compared to $197 million in the prior year or 21.6% of total sales.

我現在將簡要討論我們 2 個報告部門的財務業績。本季度國內部門總銷售額（包括部門間銷售額）下降 3% 至 8.81 億美元，而去年同期為 9.09 億美元，收購的影響為本季度貢獻了約 7% 的收入增長。該部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.44 億美元，利潤率為 16.4%，而去年同期為 1.97 億美元，佔總銷售額的 21.6%。

The lower Domestic EBITDA margin in the quarter was primarily due to unfavorable sales mix, partially offset by the realization of previously implemented pricing actions. In addition, the impact of acquisitions and continued energy technology operating expense investments for future growth negatively affected margins during the quarter. For the full year 2022, Domestic segment total sales increased 23% over the prior year to $3.93 billion. Adjusted EBITDA margins for the segment were 18.2% compared to 24.8% in the prior year full year.

本季度較低的國內 EBITDA 利潤率主要是由於不利的銷售組合，部分被之前實施的定價行動的實現所抵消。此外，收購和持續的能源技術運營費用投資對未來增長的影響對本季度的利潤率產生了負面影響。 2022 年全年，國內業務總銷售額比上年增長 23% 至 39.3 億美元。該部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 18.2%，而去年全年為 24.8%。

International segment total sales, including intersegment sales, increased 22% to $219 million in the quarter as compared to $180 million in the prior year quarter. Core sales, which excludes the impact of acquisitions and currency, increased approximately 28% compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment before deducting for noncontrolling interest was $29.5 million or 13.5% of net sales as compared to $23.7 million or 13.1% of net sales in the prior year. This margin performance was driven primarily by improved operating leverage on the higher volumes.

本季度國際部門總銷售額（包括部門間銷售額）增長 22% 至 2.19 億美元，而去年同期為 1.8 億美元。排除收購和匯率影響的核心銷售額比上年增長約 28%。該部門扣除非控股權益前的調整後 EBITDA 為 2950 萬美元或淨銷售額的 13.5%，而上一年為 2370 萬美元或淨銷售額的 13.1%。這種利潤率表現主要是由於提高了銷量的經營槓桿。

For the full year 2022, International segment total sales increased 32% over the prior year to $791 million. Adjusted EBITDA margins for the segment before deducting for non-controlling interests were 13.8% of total sales during 2022, a significant 280 basis point increase compared to the 11% margin in the prior year.

2022 年全年，國際業務總銷售額比上年增長 32% 至 7.91 億美元。 2022 年，該部門扣除非控股權益前的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為總銷售額的 13.8%，比上一年的 11% 利潤率顯著增加 280 個基點。

Now switching back to our financial performance for the fourth quarter of '22 on a consolidated basis. As disclosed in our earnings release, GAAP net income for the company in the quarter was $71 million as compared to $143 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. The current year net income includes pretax charges totaling approximately $21 million related to an unfavorable adjustment for acquisition contingent consideration and certain legal and regulatory reserves.

現在在合併的基礎上轉回我們 22 年第四季度的財務業績。正如我們在財報中披露的那樣，本季度公司的 GAAP 淨收入為 7100 萬美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 1.43 億美元。本年度淨收入包括與收購不利調整相關的總計約 2100 萬美元的稅前費用或有對價和某些法律和監管儲備。

In addition, interest expense increased approximately $10 million compared to the prior year due to higher borrowings and higher interest rates. GAAP income taxes during the current year fourth quarter were $13.6 million or an effective tax rate of 15.5% as compared to $20.6 million or an effective tax rate of 12.4% for the prior year. The increase in effective tax rate was due to certain favorable discrete items that were reflected in the prior year, which did not repeat in the current year quarter.

此外，由於更高的借款和更高的利率，利息支出比上一年增加了約 1000 萬美元。本年度第四季度的 GAAP 所得稅為 1360 萬美元或 15.5% 的有效稅率，而去年同期為 2060 萬美元或 12.4% 的有效稅率。實際稅率的增加是由於上一年反映的某些有利的離散項目，這些項目在本年度季度沒有重複。

Diluted net income per share for the company on a GAAP basis was $0.83 in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $2.04 in the prior year. Adjusted net income for the company, as defined in our earnings release, was $113 million in the current year quarter or $1.78 per share. This compares to adjusted net income of $160 million in the prior year or $2.51 per share. Cash flow from operations was $101 million as compared to $62 million in the prior year fourth quarter, and free cash flow, as defined in our earnings release, was $80 million as compared to $42 million in the same quarter last year.

2022 年第四季度，公司按 GAAP 計算的稀釋後每股淨收益為 0.83 美元，而去年同期為 2.04 美元。根據我們的收益發布中的定義，公司調整後的淨收入在本年度季度為 1.13 億美元或每股 1.78 美元。相比之下，去年調整後的淨收入為 1.6 億美元或每股 2.51 美元。運營現金流為 1.01 億美元，而去年第四季度為 6200 萬美元，我們的收益發布中定義的自由現金流為 8000 萬美元，而去年同期為 4200 萬美元。

The improvement in free cash flow was primarily due to lower working capital investment in the current year quarter as we reduced our material receipts and production rates for home standby generators. This was partially offset by lower operating earnings. As of December 31, 2022, we had approximately $1.29 billion of liquidity, comprised of approximately $133 million of cash on hand and $1.16 billion of availability on our revolving credit facility. Also, total debt outstanding at the end of the quarter was $1.43 billion, resulting in a gross debt leverage ratio at the end of the fourth quarter of 1.8x on an as-reported basis.

自由現金流的改善主要是由於本年度季度營運資本投資減少，因為我們減少了家用備用發電機的材料收入和生產率。這部分被較低的營業收入所抵消。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日，我們擁有約 12.9 億美元的流動資金，包括約 1.33 億美元的手頭現金和 11.6 億美元的可用循環信貸額度。此外，本季度末未償債務總額為 14.3 億美元，導致第四季度末的總債務槓桿率為報告基礎的 1.8 倍。

Additionally, during the fourth quarter, we repurchased 2.2 million shares of our common stock for $222 million or an average price of approximately $102 per share. There is approximately $278 million remaining on our current share repurchase authorization as of the end of 2022. With that, I will now provide further comments on our new outlook for 2023. As disclosed in our press release this morning, we're initiating 2023 net sales guidance that is consistent with the high-level comments provided in our third quarter earnings call on November 2.

此外，在第四季度，我們以 2.22 億美元或平均每股約 102 美元的價格回購了 220 萬股普通股。截至 2022 年底，我們目前的股票回購授權大約剩餘 2.78 億美元。有了這個，我現在將對我們 2023 年的新展望提供進一步的評論。正如我們今天上午的新聞稿中披露的那樣，我們將啟動 2023 年淨銷售指引與我們在 11 月 2 日的第三季度財報電話會議上提供的高層評論一致。

As Aaron previously discussed, shipments of residential products are expected to face significant headwinds in the first half of the year due to elevated field inventory levels for home standby generators and the continued build-out of our clean energy product and distribution capabilities. We expect the residential product category to return to year-over-year sales growth in the second half, resulting in a full year decline in the high teens range compared to prior year.

正如 Aaron 之前所討論的那樣，由於家用備用發電機的現場庫存水平升高以及我們清潔能源產品和分銷能力的持續建設，預計今年上半年住宅產品的出貨量將面臨重大阻力。我們預計住宅產品類別將在下半年恢復同比銷售增長，導致與去年同期相比全年下降。

We anticipate continued growth for C&I product sales across several channels domestically and internationally, resulting in expected C&I net sales growth in the mid- to high single-digit range for the full year, with higher growth rates anticipated in the first half of the year. As a result of these factors, we expect overall net sales for the full year to decrease between minus 6% to minus 10% as compared to the prior year, which includes approximately 1% of net favorable impact from acquisitions and foreign currency.

我們預計 C&I 產品銷售額將在國內外多個渠道持續增長，預計全年 C&I 淨銷售額將實現中高個位數增長，預計上半年的增長率會更高。由於這些因素，我們預計全年的整體淨銷售額與上年相比將下降 -6% 至 -10%，其中包括來自收購和外彙的約 1% 的淨有利影響。

Importantly, this guidance assumes a level of power outage activity during the year in line with the longer-term baseline average. As a result and consistent with our historical approach, this outlook does not assume the benefit of a major power outage event during the year, such as a Category 3 or higher landed hurricane or major winter storm. As a result of this top line outlook, we expect sales to be more weighted to the back half of the year for 2023, similar to pre-COVID periods, which did not include substantial residential backlog, with overall net sales in the first half being approximately 44% weighted and sales in the second half being approximately 56% weighted.

重要的是，本指南假設一年中的停電活動水平與長期基準平均值一致。因此，與我們的歷史做法一致，該展望並未假設年內發生重大停電事件的好處，例如 3 級或更高級別的登陸颶風或大型冬季風暴。由於這一頂線前景，我們預計 2023 年下半年的銷售將更加重要，類似於 COVID 之前的時期，其中不包括大量住宅積壓，上半年的整體淨銷售額為權重約為 44%，下半年銷售額權重約為 56%。

Specifically, with the return to normal seasonality and the destocking of Home Standby field inventory, we expect first quarter total sales to decline by approximately minus 25% to minus 26% from the prior year, with growth in C&I product sales more than offset by residential product headwinds. Looking at our gross margin expectations for the full year 2023 compared to 2022, we expect favorable price cost impacts driven by previously implemented pricing actions that have not yet fully annualized, certain cost reduction initiatives and lower input costs to more than offset the negative impact of unfavorable sales mix resulting from lower home standby generator shipments.

具體而言，隨著恢復正常的季節性和 Home Standby 現場庫存的去庫存化，我們預計第一季度總銷售額將比上年下降約負 25% 至負 26%，其中 C&I 產品銷售額的增長被住宅所抵消產品逆風。看看我們對 2023 年全年與 2022 年相比的毛利率預期，我們預計先前實施的尚未完全年化的定價行動、某些成本削減舉措和較低的投入成本將帶來有利的價格成本影響，以抵消負面影響家庭備用發電機出貨量下降導致不利的銷售組合。

As a result, we expect gross margins for the full year to increase by approximately 150 basis points as compared to 2022. From a seasonality perspective, we expect first quarter gross margins to be the lowest during the year, due primarily to the outsized impact of unfavorable sales mix and lower overhead absorption on the lower home standby volumes. Specifically for the first quarter, we expect gross margins to be approximately 200 basis points below the first quarter of 2022.

因此，我們預計全年毛利率將比 2022 年增長約 150 個基點。從季節性角度來看，我們預計第一季度毛利率將是年內最低的，這主要是由於不利的銷售組合和較低的家庭備用量導致的間接費用吸收較低。具體到第一季度，我們預計毛利率將比 2022 年第一季度低約 200 個基點。

Sequential quarterly improvements in gross margins are expected as the year progresses, due to improved sales mix from higher shipments of home standby generators, along with lower input costs, improved overhead absorption and realization of cost reduction initiatives as we move throughout the year, And as a result, gross margins are expected to progressively improve with fourth quarter margins to be approximately 500 basis points higher than fourth quarter of 2022.

隨著時間的推移，由於家用備用發電機出貨量增加帶來的銷售組合改善，以及投入成本降低，管理費用吸收改善以及我們全年移動時成本削減計劃的實現，預計毛利率將在今年內連續季度改善，並且因此，毛利率預計將逐步提高，第四季度毛利率將比 2022 年第四季度高出約 500 個基點。

In addition, we continue to focus heavily on supporting innovation, executing on strategic initiatives and driving future revenue growth in new and existing markets. As a result of these continued investments, we expect operating expenses, excluding intangible amortization expense as a percentage of net sales to be nearly 20% for the full year of 2023, with operating leverage improving throughout the year.

此外，我們繼續重點支持創新，執行戰略計劃並推動新市場和現有市場的未來收入增長。由於這些持續投資，我們預計 2023 年全年運營費用（不包括無形攤銷費用）占淨銷售額的比例將接近 20%，全年運營槓桿率將有所改善。

As a result of our gross margin and operating expense expectations, adjusted EBITDA margins before deducting for non-controlling interests are expected to be approximately 17% to 18% for the full year compared to the 18.1% reported for the full year 2022. From a seasonality perspective, we expect adjusted EBITDA margins to improve significantly as we move throughout the year, primarily driven by the sequentially improving gross margins as previously discussed in detail and to a lesser extent, improved leverage of operating expenses on the expected higher sales volumes in the second half of 2023.

由於我們對毛利率和運營費用的預期，扣除非控股權益之前的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預計全年約為 17% 至 18%，而報告的 2022 年全年為 18.1%。從季節性的角度來看，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將隨著我們全年的移動而顯著提高，這主要是由於前面詳細討論過的毛利率的連續提高以及在較小程度上提高了營業費用對預期銷量增加的影響2023 年下半年。

Specifically regarding the first quarter, adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be the lowest for the year at approximately 10% and then improved sequentially throughout the year, returning to more normalized levels in the low 20% range in the fourth quarter. As a result, second half adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to be approximately 800 basis points higher than the first half margins. As is normal practice, we are also providing additional guidance details to assist with modeling adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow for the full year 2023. For 2023, our GAAP effective tax rate is expected to be between 24% to 25% as compared to the 19.6% full year GAAP tax rate for 2022. This increase is driven primarily by expectations for lower share-based compensation deductions, increased mix of income in higher tax jurisdictions and higher tax on foreign income in 2023 compared to 2022.

具體到第一季度，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將降至年內最低水平，約為 10%，然後全年連續改善，第四季度恢復到 20% 較低範圍內的更正常水平。因此，下半年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率預計將比上半年利潤率高出約 800 個基點。按照慣例，我們還提供額外的指導細節，以協助對 2023 年全年的調整後每股收益和自由現金流進行建模。到 2023 年，我們的 GAAP 有效稅率預計將在 24% 至 25% 之間，相比之下到 2022 年 19.6% 的全年 GAAP 稅率。這一增長主要是由於對較低的股票薪酬扣除的預期、較高稅收管轄區的收入組合增加以及與 2022 年相比 2023 年的外國收入稅更高。

Additionally, to arrive at appropriate estimates for adjusted net income and adjusted EPS, the related reconciling item should be forecasted net of tax using this GAAP tax rate as well. We expect interest expense to be approximately $90 million, assuming no additional term loan principal prepayments during the year and assuming elevated SOFR rates throughout 2023. Our capital expenditures are projected to be approximately 2.5% to 3% of our forecasted net sales for the year in line with historical levels.

此外，為了對調整後的淨收入和調整後的每股收益做出適當的估計，相關的調節項目也應該使用該 GAAP 稅率進行稅後預測。我們預計利息支出約為 9000 萬美元，假設年內沒有額外的定期貸款本金預付款，並假設 SOFR 利率在整個 2023 年升高。我們的資本支出預計約為我們今年預測淨銷售額的 2.5% 至 3%符合歷史水平。

Depreciation expense is forecast to be approximately $56 million to $58 million in 2023, given our assumed CapEx guidance. GAAP intangible amortization expense in 2023 is expected to be approximately $100 million during the year. And stock compensation expense is expected to be between $40 million to $43 million for the year. Operating and free cash flow generation is expected to follow historical seasonality of being disproportionately weighted towards the second half of the year in 2023.

根據我們假設的資本支出指南，預計 2023 年的折舊費用約為 5600 萬至 5800 萬美元。預計 2023 年 GAAP 無形攤銷費用約為 1 億美元。全年股票補償費用預計在 4000 萬至 4300 萬美元之間。預計運營和自由現金流的產生將遵循歷史季節性，即 2023 年下半年的權重過高。

Specifically related to the first quarter, we expect free cash flow to be negative, assuming a continued use of cash for working capital with a sharp recovery in the second quarter. For the full year, we expect free cash flow conversion to be strong at well over 100% as recent trends of significant working capital builds are reversed. Our full year weighted average diluted share count is expected to decrease to approximately 63 million shares as compared to 64.7 million shares in 2022, which reflects the share repurchases that were completed in 2022.

特別是與第一季度相關，我們預計自由現金流為負，假設繼續使用現金作為營運資金並在第二季度急劇復甦。對於全年，我們預計自由現金流轉換率將超過 100%，因為最近大量營運資本建設的趨勢被逆轉。我們的全年加權平均稀釋股數預計將從 2022 年的 6470 萬股減少至約 6300 萬股，這反映了 2022 年完成的股票回購。

Finally, this 2023 outlook does not reflect potential additional acquisitions or share repurchases that could drive incremental shareholder value. This concludes our prepared remarks. At this time, we'd like to open the call for questions.

最後，這份 2023 年展望並未反映可能推動股東價值增加的潛在額外收購或股票回購。我們準備好的發言到此結束。在這個時候，我們想打開問題的電話。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Tommy Moll from Stephens.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Tommy Moll。

Aaron, I appreciated your comments and insight on the field inventory levels for home standby. I think what I heard you say was in terms of days on hand, that it was down sequentially, but well above normal So my related follow-on question is, is there any way you can frame quantitatively or qualitatively what normal looks like? And to what extent do you need to continue to build out the dealer network in order to achieve that level in the back half of this year?

亞倫，我感謝您對家庭備用現場庫存水平的評論和見解。我想我聽到你說的是就手頭的天數而言，它是連續下降的，但遠高於正常水平所以我的相關後續問題是，有沒有什麼方法可以定量或定性地構建正常的樣子？為了在今年下半年達到這一水平，您需要在多大程度上繼續建立經銷商網絡？

Yes. Thanks, Tommy. It's obviously, the field inventory destocking process that we're going through, there's a lot of metrics there that we have at our fingertips in terms of how much inventory is in the field, we know activation rates. You can look at them as we do on a seasonal basis, The comments, as you indicated, you were spot on, we said that from a days of field inventory standpoint, they improved sequentially from the fourth quarter, but still high. I think if you go back to our comments on the last call in November, we said we were about double. We thought field inventory levels were about double where they needed to be from a normal kind of "normal level." We're better than that today. So the raw numbers are, we're about 20% off the peak in terms of just raw units in field inventory, home standby units, which is great. And as that days of field inventory also coming down sequentially, the combination of those 2 things, reducing production rates, the activation rate was up nicely in the fourth quarter.

是的。謝謝，湯米。很明顯，我們正在經歷的現場庫存去庫存過程中，我們掌握了很多關於現場庫存量的指標，我們知道激活率。你可以像我們按季節一樣看待它們，正如你所說的那樣，你的評論是正確的，我們說從現場庫存的天數來看，它們從第四季度開始連續改善，但仍然很高。我想如果你回到我們對 11 月最後一次電話會議的評論，我們說過我們大約翻了一番。我們認為現場庫存水平大約是正常“正常水平”所需的兩倍。我們今天比那更好。所以原始數據是，就現場庫存的原始單位、家庭備用單位而言，我們比峰值低了大約 20%，這很好。由於當天的現場庫存也依次下降，這兩件事的結合降低了生產率，第四季度的激活率上升得很好。

So we continue to see installation building out. So all of those metrics are favorable.

所以我們繼續看到安裝的建立。所以所有這些指標都是有利的。

And point two, the destocking event that's going on. But as our prepared remarks indicated, still high relative to where they need to be normally. So it's not quite double. It's less than that, maybe, I don't know, 1.6x, 1.7x still the level in terms of just the raw numbers as we look at them, but coming down nicely. In terms of the second part of the question, there's a -- it's kind of a -- it's a multipart -- multipronged approach, if you will, The biggest of which, as we've indicated and I think you're latched on to as well, is that we have to increase the raw dealer count. And so to that end, we added over 500 dealers on a net basis in the second half of the year, which is the strongest second half of a year we've ever had in terms of new dealer adds at 8700, we ended the year actually over 8,700 dealers and progressing very nicely there in terms of broadening our reach, also focused on training. I think one of the things we mentioned with the pandemic over the last several years, we had very aggressive training -- face-to-face training programs.

第二點，正在進行的去庫存事件。但正如我們準備好的評論所表明的那樣，相對於他們通常需要的水平來說仍然很高。所以它不是完全雙重的。它小於那個，也許，我不知道，1.6 倍，1.7 倍仍然是我們看到的原始數字的水平，但下降得很好。關於問題的第二部分，有一個——它是一個——它是一個多部分的——多管齊下的方法，如果你願意的話，其中最大的方法，正如我們已經指出的，我認為你已經抓住了此外，我們必須增加原始經銷商數量。為此，我們在下半年淨增加了 500 多家經銷商，這是我們有史以來最強勁的下半年新經銷商增加 8700 家，我們結束了這一年實際上有超過 8,700 家經銷商，並且在擴大我們的業務範圍方面取得了非常好的進展，也專注於培訓。我認為過去幾年我們在大流行病中提到的一件事是，我們進行了非常積極的培訓——面對面的培訓計劃。

Pre-pandemic, We had to scale those back during the pandemic, we just weren't able to do that. And we're back to training now face-to-face with dealers, with contractors, and that is super helpful in terms of the engagement level with those partners. Another area is helping them find labor. One of the big things that we heard in the second half of last year was the labor constraints that our dealers have and our contractor partners have in being able to expand their installation capacity is just headcount, just people. And so we created something we call the dealer talent network, and we've rolled that out here early in 2023 And we're getting good traction there in helping dealers find and hire and onboard the talent they need to increase their installation capacity.

大流行前，我們不得不在大流行期間縮減這些，但我們做不到。我們現在又回到與經銷商、承包商面對面的培訓，這在與這些合作夥伴的參與度方面非常有幫助。另一個領域是幫助他們尋找勞動力。我們在去年下半年聽到的一件大事是我們的經銷商和我們的承包商合作夥伴在能夠擴大他們的安裝能力方面的勞動力限制只是人數，只是人員。因此，我們創建了一個我們稱之為經銷商人才網絡的東西，我們已於 2023 年初在這裡推出該網絡，我們在幫助經銷商尋找、僱用和聘用他們提高安裝能力所需的人才方面獲得了良好的牽引力。

So all of those things together -- and then longer term, we have some technical solutions we're working on, obviously, trying to take labor out of the actual installation process is a big part of this as well. So all of those efforts, we think that certainly on the shorter-term efforts like adding distribution, training and helping dealers find qualified headcount, we're making really good progress on those short-term initiatives. And then longer term, on the innovation side, we see and have a number of really good kind of ideas around how we can continue to take labor out of the home standby installation process. So I think we're making good progress. We see the metrics reflecting that in a lower field inventory level, but we're still going to see that kind of exist here through the first half.

所以所有這些事情在一起 - 然後從長遠來看，我們有一些我們正在研究的技術解決方案，顯然，試圖從實際安裝過程中取出勞動力也是其中的重要組成部分。因此，所有這些努力，我們認為肯定是在增加分銷、培訓和幫助經銷商找到合格員工等短期努力方面，我們在這些短期舉措上取得了非常好的進展。然後從長遠來看，在創新方面，我們看到並有許多關於如何繼續從家庭備用安裝過程中減少勞動力的非常好的想法。所以我認為我們正在取得很好的進展。我們看到指標反映了較低的現場庫存水平，但我們仍然會在上半年看到這種情況存在。

And we own that. We know that's going to result in pressure on the first half of the year. And because of the margin profile of those products, in particular, as you heard York's remarks around the outlook, it's going to be kind of a tale of 2 halves. Seasonally, top line is going to be relatively similar at 44% being the first half, 56% being the back half. But I think profitability because of the heavy mix shift, you're going to see that play out in that 800 basis point move from Q1 to Q4 in EBITDA margins that were -- in gross margin, excuse me, that we're anticipating over the course of the year. So -- but great question, and obviously a central focus, not only for us but others as well.

我們擁有它。我們知道這將在今年上半年造成壓力。而且由於這些產品的利潤率，特別是當你聽到約克對前景的評論時，這將是一個兩半的故事。從季節性來看，收入將相對相似，上半場為 44%，後半場為 56%。但我認為由於重大的混合轉變而帶來的盈利能力，你會看到 EBITDA 利潤率從第一季度到第四季度的 800 個基點的變化 - 毛利率，對不起，我們預計超過一年的過程。所以 - 但這是一個很好的問題，顯然是一個中心焦點，不僅對我們而且對其他人也是如此。

Our next question comes from Michael Halloran from Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Michael Halloran。

So just a follow up on that, Aaron. Maybe you can just talk about what your assumptions are for the underlying demand dynamics as you work through the back half of the year? In other words, it sounds like you think that the current strength that you're seeing in the in-home consultations and some of those megatrends you mentioned. It sounds like you think that carries through the year into the back half of the year. Just some thoughts on what's underpinning that back half strength from an underlying demand perspective, kind of ignoring that inventory normalization side that you've talked about?

所以只是跟進一下，Aaron。也許你可以談談你在今年下半年工作時對潛在需求動態的假設是什麼？換句話說，聽起來您認為您在家庭諮詢中看到的當前優勢以及您提到的一些大趨勢。聽起來你認為這會持續到今年下半年。只是從潛在需求的角度思考是什麼支撐了後半部分的力量，有點忽略了你談到的庫存正常化方面？

Yes. No, thanks, Mike. I think there's -- optically, I think when you look at first half, second half, right, like I think it looks like, wow, that's a really big hill to climb. Again, seasonally, interestingly enough, you get kind of normal seasonality, you go back to 2019 levels, and actually pre-2019, just looking back, we're really not that far off of how the top line would pace seasonally. But we've got this, what I'll call, kind of artificially low. We're referring to it as an air pocket with home standby because of the destocking event.

是的。不，謝謝，邁克。我認為有——從視覺上看，我認為當你看上半場、下半場時，對，就像我認為它看起來，哇，那是一座真正需要攀登的大山。再次，有趣的是，季節性，你會得到一種正常的季節性，你回到 2019 年的水平，實際上在 2019 年之前，回頭看，我們真的離收入季節性增長的方式不遠。但是我們有這個，我稱之為，有點人為地低。由於去庫存事件，我們將其稱為帶家庭備用的氣袋。

But to answer your question, what gives us confidence that the year will play out, at least the underpinned -- what's underpinning the demand metrics that we're seeing and how we're building out our view on the full year. So there's a couple of things. One is you look at the fourth quarter IHC levels. That was a record fourth quarter for us. It matched the fourth quarter of the prior year. So that was a record. And so they're both records in terms of IHC flow. So we're seeing really strong sales lead volume.

但要回答你的問題，是什麼讓我們相信這一年將會結束，至少是有支撐的 - 是什麼支撐了我們所看到的需求指標以及我們如何建立我們對全年的看法。所以有幾件事。一個是你看第四季度的 IHC 水平。這對我們來說是創紀錄的第四季度。它與去年第四季度持平。所以這是一個記錄。因此，它們都是 IHC 流程方面的記錄。所以我們看到了非常強勁的銷售線索量。

And that has continued here in 2023, as we said. January was an all-time record for us for January. Best January we've ever had with IHCs. So we're really encouraged by the continued focus by homeowners. Look, I think that what is maybe -- there's a lot of noise in the story right now with the destocking and everything else that some of the clean energy challenges that we've had, we're talking about. But what's not -- which shouldn't be lost on people is the fact that power outages are happening and people are concerned about resiliency.

正如我們所說，這種情況一直持續到 2023 年。一月是我們一月份的歷史記錄。我們與 IHC 一起度過的最好的一月。因此，我們對房主的持續關注感到非常鼓舞。看，我認為這可能是 - 現在故事中有很多噪音，包括去庫存和我們所面臨的一些清潔能源挑戰的其他一切，我們正在談論。但是，人們不應該忘記的是，停電正在發生，人們擔心恢復能力。

Grid operators are very concerned about their ability to supply power on a normal basis, like forget weather for a second. But just with kind of the way that the grid is changing, as we electrify everything on the demand side and on the source side, on the power generation side, the addition of all these renewable sources, these mandates to increase renewable sources is -- and those are intermittent sources, that's driving supply and demand challenges for grid operators and utilities like they've never seen before.

電網運營商非常關心他們正常供電的能力，就像暫時忘記天氣一樣。但是，隨著電網正在改變的方式，當我們在需求端和電源端、發電端使一切都電氣化時，增加所有這些可再生能源，這些增加可再生能源的任務是——這些是間歇性來源，這給電網運營商和公用事業帶來了前所未有的供需挑戰。

And so their ability to solve for those challenges is a huge focal point. And you can just see what's happening, right? I mean, look at the holiday outages that we saw in the Carolinas and in areas along the East Coast, where there were rolling blackouts because of the demand from electric heating, residential heating and the cold weather taking power plants and supply offline.

因此，他們解決這些挑戰的能力是一個巨大的焦點。你可以看到發生了什麼，對吧？我的意思是，看看我們在卡羅來納州和東海岸沿線地區看到的假期停電，由於電供暖、住宅供暖和寒冷天氣導致發電廠和供應中斷，那裡出現輪流停電。

So in Austin, we had the ice storm here recently as well. Another 400,000 homes that were without power there. So power outages and the concern on power outage is front and center for homeowners. So we're seeing that come through in our sales lead volume. We're also seeing, as part of our metrics here and what were -- the assumptions that we're making to answer your question, we're assuming a higher close rate. Why are we assuming that because we're seeing that. And we're coming off of kind of the lows. We're about 20% higher on close rates today than we were a year ago, which is really encouraging.

所以在奧斯汀，我們最近也遇到了冰暴。另有 400,000 戶家庭斷電。因此，停電和對停電的擔憂是房主的首要任務。因此，我們看到了我們的銷售線索量。我們還看到，作為我們這裡指標的一部分，以及我們為回答您的問題而做出的假設，我們假設收盤率更高。為什麼我們會這樣假設，因為我們看到了。我們正在走出低谷。我們今天的收盤利率比一年前高出約 20%，這確實令人鼓舞。

Now they're not back to pre-pandemic levels yet, but they're improving -- That's the opportunity. So we see improving close rates. We see higher sales lead volume. We've got the distribution adds. This is another really important part of the story. I mean we added 500 new dealers on a net basis in the second half of the year. This is how -- we've always talked about this business kind of being a step function grower and we have these periods of elevated growth and then things kind of level off and you kind of come down off the peaks, and you level off into what we refer to and have referred to historically as a new and higher baseline level of demand.

現在他們還沒有回到大流行前的水平，但他們正在改善——這就是機會。因此，我們看到收盤價有所提高。我們看到更高的銷售線索量。我們已經添加了發行版。這是故事的另一個非常重要的部分。我的意思是我們在今年下半年淨增加了 500 家新經銷商。這就是——我們一直在談論這種業務是一個階躍函數增長者，我們有這些高速增長的時期，然後事情會趨於平穩，你會從高峰期下降，然後趨於平穩我們所指的和歷史上所指的是新的、更高的需求基準水平。

And that's really what we're targeting in the second half of the year is that normalization, if you will, of that baseline demand, right, the presentation of that and then the field inventories, that destocking process being completed here by the first half of the year. So you put all that together and package it up and then obviously surround all that with continued strength in our C&I business, which has been great. We probably don't talk enough about that, but a fantastic property that we've built over the last 15 years here that's been a great way to help us diversify this business and has given us exposure to some awesome megatrends around telecom and some of the infrastructure rebuild type of efforts that are going on, not only domestically here, but globally. So we put all of that together, and that's what really gives us confidence in kind of this first half, second half story.

這就是我們下半年的真正目標是，如果你願意的話，基準需求的正常化，對，然後是現場庫存的介紹，去庫存過程將在上半年完成的一年。因此，您將所有這些放在一起並打包，然後顯然將所有這些都與我們 C&I 業務的持續實力相結合，這一直很棒。我們可能對此談論得不夠多，但我們在過去 15 年裡在這裡建造的一處奇妙的財產是幫助我們實現業務多元化的好方法，並讓我們接觸到一些圍繞電信和一些令人敬畏的大趨勢基礎設施重建類型的努力正在進行中，不僅在國內，而且在全球範圍內。所以我們把所有這些放在一起，這才是真正讓我們對上半場和下半場故事充滿信心的原因。

And I know that there's a lot of discussion on hard landing, soft landing recession, whatever it may be. And I think Aaron's point then is as long as there's power outages, we've historically tended to decouple from that economic environment as long as it is power outages. So that's put it back to full circle to what -- how Aaron started the answer to that question.

我知道有很多關於硬著陸、軟著陸衰退的討論，不管它是什麼。我認為 Aaron 的觀點是，只要停電，我們歷來傾向於與經濟環境脫鉤，只要停電。所以這又回到了原點——亞倫是如何開始回答這個問題的。

And our next question comes from Jeff Hammond from KeyBanc Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Markets 的 Jeff Hammond。

So just want to go through the -- one, just the bridge on the margins first half to second half and how you get there. And I guess on a full year basis, it seems like EBITDA margins are kind of flattish to slightly down. And just given the revenue decline and the mix change given home standby is under more in pressure, just some of the moving pieces on how to kind of hold those margins flat?

所以只想通過 - 一個，只是上半場到下半場邊緣的橋樑以及你如何到達那裡。我想從全年來看，EBITDA 利潤率似乎持平甚至略有下降。考慮到收入下降和家庭待機的混合變化面臨更大的壓力，只是關於如何保持這些利潤率持平的一些動向？

Yes. Jeff, this is York. So speaking to EBITDA margins. So we mentioned Q1 would be in that 10% range. The double hit of the destock, coupled with a tough comp from the prior year, but looking at 10% EBITDA for Q1. Talked about Q4, building out through the year to Q4 being in that low 20% range. So -- you're right, that's an abnormally larger EBITDA range progressing through the year.

是的。傑夫，這是約克。所以說到 EBITDA 利潤率。所以我們提到 Q1 將在 10% 的範圍內。去庫存的雙重打擊，加上前一年的艱難競爭，但預計第一季度的 EBITDA 為 10%。談到第四季度，全年到第四季度都在 20% 的低範圍內。所以——你是對的，這是一個異常大的 EBITDA 範圍，全年都在進步。

But I think given some of the things that Aaron talked about, that's the rationale for it. And when you look at a lot of the pieces, I mean, half of that growth -- just alone half of that growth, as home standby recovers in the back half, you'll get a better mix in Q4 than you did in Q1 of home standby. You'll get a tremendous amount of operating leverage then on the higher volumes.

但我認為考慮到 Aaron 談到的一些事情，這就是它的基本原理。當你看很多部分時，我的意思是，增長的一半——僅僅是增長的一半，隨著家庭待機在後半部分恢復，你會在第四季度獲得比第一季度更好的組合家庭待機。然後，您將在更高的交易量上獲得巨大的運營槓桿。

So I would say just half of the margin recovery is just better mix and operating leverage on the higher home standby volumes. And then the other half is really a story on cost we're currently realizing on a lag basis, we're still realizing higher input costs, higher commodity costs, higher logistics costs because there's lags to get through our supply chain and lags to get through our inventory levels in terms of realizing our input costs.

所以我想說只有一半的利潤率恢復只是更好的組合和更高家庭備用量的運營槓桿。然後另一半是關於成本的故事，我們目前在滯後基礎上實現，我們仍然意識到更高的投入成本、更高的商品成本、更高的物流成本，因為我們的供應鏈存在滯後，也存在滯後通過我們的庫存水平來實現我們的投入成本。

So when you model it out, we expect as we get through Q4 relative to Q1, we'll have lower commodities we'll have lower electronic surcharges that we've been incurring all throughout 2022, lower logistics costs, the better manufacturing overhead absorption as we ramp up productions. And then we always have our profitability enhancement programs that we're working on every year that are focused on cost reductions of the bill of material of our products. Focused cost reductions, cross-functional initiatives, things like that. So on the cost side, that's the other half of the puzzle, and we feel confident as we work through the lags, we'll see better margins relative as a result of better input costs.

因此，當您對其進行建模時，我們預計與第一季度相比，第四季度我們將擁有更低的商品，我們將擁有更低的電子附加費，我們將在整個 2022 年承擔更低的物流成本，更好地吸收製造間接費用隨著我們提高產量。然後我們總是有我們每年都致力於提高盈利能力的計劃，這些計劃的重點是降低我們產品物料清單的成本。專注於降低成本、跨職能計劃，諸如此類。因此，在成本方面，這是難題的另一半，我們有信心在克服滯後的過程中，由於更好的投入成本，我們將看到相對更好的利潤率。

And our next question comes from Christopher Glynn from Oppenheimer. Christopher, is your line on mute, please unmute. And we now have Christopher Glynn. And our next question comes from Mark Strouse from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的克里斯托弗格林。克里斯托弗，你的線路是否靜音，請取消靜音。我們現在有克里斯托弗·格林。我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mark Strouse。

I wanted to turn to the Clean Power business. I apologize if I missed this. Did you say what that revenue number was in '22? And then how should we think about that range kind of heading into 2023? And then I'm kind of also curious, I know you've got a lot of things going on that are company specific. How are you thinking about kind of the macro environment for that business in particular? Just hearing some kind of mixed commentary from some of the other companies in this space.

我想轉向清潔能源業務。如果我錯過了這個，我深表歉意。你說 22 年的收入數字是多少？然後我們應該如何考慮進入 2023 年的範圍？然後我也有點好奇，我知道你有很多事情是公司特定的。您如何特別考慮該業務的宏觀環境？只是聽到這個領域其他一些公司的一些混合評論。

Yes. Mark, this is York. So that energy technology business, which includes the clean energy, PWRcell energy storage business, our ecobee connected devices business and grid services business, that was around $300 million for the year. And I think in Aaron's prepared remarks, we expect that same energy technology business to be around $300 million to $350 million for 2023.

是的。馬克，這是約克。因此，能源技術業務，包括清潔能源、PWRcell 儲能業務、我們的 ecobee 連接設備業務和電網服務業務，這一年的收入約為 3 億美元。我認為在 Aaron 準備好的發言中，我們預計 2023 年同樣的能源技術業務將達到 3 億至 3.5 億美元左右。

And then from a macro standpoint, Mark, the way we see this space, obviously, it's -- we're in this for the long run. And so from a macro environment standpoint, I think there's a number of forecasts out there they're calling for residential solar to maybe be down in '23. And there's a couple of reasons for that, obviously, higher interest rates. As part of that story -- another part of that story would be some of the changes that are ongoing kind of at the state level, you look at like California with NEM 3.0 and the impact that, that can have on the pace of solar penetration rates, I would say that's largely -- there's a view that that's largely offset by some of the federal stimulus that the IRA Act is providing. So we remain bullish that while growth maybe isn't going to be huge, as York said, between $300 million and $350 million, which is a little bit of growth over the prior year.

然後從宏觀的角度來看，馬克，我們看待這個空間的方式，顯然，它是 - 我們長期處於這個領域。因此，從宏觀環境的角度來看，我認為有許多預測稱住宅太陽能可能會在 23 年下降。顯然，有幾個原因導致利率升高。作為那個故事的一部分 - 這個故事的另一部分是在州一級正在進行的一些變化，你看看加利福尼亞州的 NEM 3.0 以及它可能對太陽能滲透速度產生的影響利率，我想說這在很大程度上——有一種觀點認為，這在很大程度上被 IRA 法案提供的一些聯邦刺激措施所抵消。因此，我們仍然看好，雖然增長可能不會像約克所說的那樣巨大，但在 3 億至 3.5 億美元之間，這比上一年略有增長。

But we are seeing, at least within our network for the clean energy side, again, we've got some specific company challenges, as you mentioned, that we're working through. But on our connected devices businesses, specifically ecobee, seen really nice growth in that business as well as grid services, like we mentioned in our prepared remarks this morning. So that all kind of goes under this umbrella that we refer to as residential energy technology, put together the clean energy devices, connected devices and grid services.

但我們再次看到，至少在我們清潔能源方面的網絡中，我們遇到了一些特定的公司挑戰，正如你提到的，我們正在努力解決這些挑戰。但是在我們的連接設備業務上，特別是 ecobee，在該業務和網格服務方面看到了非常好的增長，就像我們在今天早上準備好的評論中提到的那樣。因此，所有這些都在我們稱之為住宅能源技術的保護傘下，將清潔能源設備、連接設備和電網服務放在一起。

So not tremendous growth in '23, but we see the opportunity for that business long term. It's just -- it's an important strategic part of what we need to build out, and we're going to be successful there longer term.

所以 23 年的增長不是很大，但我們看到了該業務的長期機會。這只是 - 這是我們需要構建的重要戰略部分，我們將在長期內取得成功。

And for our next question, we have Brian Drab with William Blair.

對於我們的下一個問題，我們有 Brian Drab 和 William Blair。

I was wondering if you could just elaborate on the EV charging opportunity. Can you say anything about what you think the revenue opportunity might be there longer term? And are you essentially leveraging the PWRcell technology to build that product?

我想知道您是否可以詳細說明電動汽車充電機會。你能說說你認為收入機會可能會長期存在嗎？您是否在本質上利用 PWRcell 技術來構建該產品？

Yes, it's a great question, Brian. This is -- we're really excited about this. We're -- you know the first generation product, I'll call it, that we're launching this year is more of a standard level 2 charger that we'll have in the market by later this year. We really want to get something in the hands of our distribution partners, in particular, our dealer partners who are starting to see more opportunities for EV charger implementation.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，布賴恩。這是 - 我們對此感到非常興奮。我們 - 你知道第一代產品，我會稱之為，我們今年推出的更多是我們將在今年晚些時候投放市場的標準 2 級充電器。我們真的很想把一些東西交到我們的分銷合作夥伴手中，特別是我們的經銷商合作夥伴，他們開始看到更多實施 EV 充電器的機會。

The team is really focused longer term, we believe there's some innovation there. As you kind of indicate the current architecture we have with our PWRcell system, this -- the REbus architecture as we refer to it, that we have, we think there's a great opportunity to do more with EV charging and really to separate ourselves from a technical standpoint longer term. That won't be the initial product. But the initial product is going to -- again, get us in the space. We do think there's some opportunities around the initial product to help homeowners manage the different loads in their homes so that they can maybe avoid a costly upgrade of their electrical system.

該團隊真正專注於長期發展，我們相信那裡有一些創新。正如您所指出的，我們的 PWRcell 系統目前的架構，即我們所指的 REbus 架構，我們認為這是一個很好的機會，可以在 EV 充電方面做得更多，並真正將我們與技術角度更長期。那不會是最初的產品。但最初的產品將——再次讓我們進入太空。我們確實認為圍繞最初的產品有一些機會可以幫助房主管理他們家中的不同負載，這樣他們就可以避免昂貴的電力系統升級。

One of the things that many homeowners are confronting as they look at an EV charger, look at buying an EV is it's not just that they have to install the charger, which can cost $1,000, $1,500, but they also have to oftentimes upgrade their electrical system because their panel is either deficient in the amount of power that it can supply or perhaps it's not up to code.

許多房主在考慮 EV 充電器時面臨的問題之一是，考慮購買 EV 時，他們不僅必須安裝充電器（可能花費 1,000 美元、1,500 美元），而且他們還必須經常升級他們的電氣設備系統，因為他們的面板要么缺乏它可以提供的電量，要么可能不符合代碼。

So in fact, some of the installation partners are telling us that 60% of the time when they're installing a charger, they have to do some major electrical work around upgrading the panel. We think there's an opportunity with some of our power manager technology to help homeowners manage some of the heavier amperage loads and avoid some of those more expensive panel upgrades and electrical upgrades. So that's going to be part of our value proposition around EV charging initially here.

所以事實上，一些安裝合作夥伴告訴我們，60% 的時間在他們安裝充電器時，他們必須圍繞升級面板做一些主要的電氣工作。我們認為我們的一些電源管理器技術有機會幫助房主管理一些較重的安培數負載並避免一些更昂貴的面板升級和電氣升級。因此，這將成為我們最初在這裡圍繞 EV 充電的價值主張的一部分。

And then longer term, we think there's some pretty exciting things perhaps around bidirectional charging. As that market matures, we think we can really add some value there for homeowners. In particular, when you think of the EV charger in the context of 1 component in the broader home energy ecosystem, we think that that's going to be at the very large load for the home and being able to control that load, both from an efficiency standpoint as well as a cost standpoint, it's going to be super critical to how homes manage their overall energy generation, their storage and all of their resiliency efforts as well longer term.

從長遠來看，我們認為雙向充電可能會帶來一些非常令人興奮的事情。隨著該市場的成熟，我們認為我們真的可以為房主增加一些價值。特別是，當您在更廣泛的家庭能源生態系統中的 1 個組件的背景下考慮 EV 充電器時，我們認為這將是家庭的非常大的負載並且能夠控制該負載，無論是從效率從長遠來看，從成本的角度來看，這對於家庭如何管理其整體能源生產、存儲和所有彈性工作至關重要。

And our next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

Aaron, I'm wondering if you could just expand on the comments regarding a 20% decline in field inventory. So in the 10-Q, you folks disclosed $220 million of dealer financing guarantees on inventories. So is that 20% applied to that $220 million? In other words, are you under shipping and demand by $40 million in the fourth quarter? Or is that a subset of the overall dealer inventory picture that you look at?

亞倫，我想知道你是否可以擴展關於現場庫存下降 20% 的評論。因此，在 10-Q 中，你們披露了 2.2 億美元的經銷商庫存融資擔保。那麼這 20% 是否適用於那 2.2 億美元？換句話說，您在第四季度的出貨量和需求量是否減少了 4000 萬美元？還是您查看的整個經銷商庫存圖片的子集？

Yes. I think -- this is York, Jerry. So yes, that disclosure that you're speaking to on the field -- the floor plan financing program is just a subset of our field inventory. That...

是的。我想——這是約克，傑瑞。所以是的，你在現場談論的那個披露 - 平面圖融資計劃只是我們現場庫存的一個子集。那...

Field inventory is across all channels, right?

現場庫存跨所有渠道，對嗎？

All channels...

所有頻道...

Retailers, e-commerce partners...

零售商、電商合作夥伴……

Not everybody and even the dealers. Not everybody uses the field floor plan financing. So it's subset. It is improving that number off the peaks. Again, if you just look at raw units across the entire subset based on the information we track with all the data we have, we are -- just raw units were down 20% from peak levels from earlier this year. Earlier in the middle part of 2022.

不是每個人，甚至是經銷商。不是每個人都使用現場平面圖融資。所以它是子集。它正在改善高峰期的數字。同樣，如果您根據我們跟踪的信息和我們擁有的所有數據來查看整個子集中的原始單位，我們是 - 與今年早些時候的峰值水平相比，原始單位下降了 20%。早在 2022 年中期。

And our next question comes from Joseph Osha from Guggenheim.

我們的下一個問題來自古根海姆的約瑟夫奧沙。

Just penciling through what you said so far and looking at the [confidence] in particular, how residential energy tech is trending. It looks to me like somewhere around Q3 for this to work you need your HSB business to see a 30% or so sequential increase Q2 to Q3 -- or is that a correct interpretation of the whole year guidance?

簡單回顧一下你到目前為止所說的話，特別是 [信心]，住宅能源技術的趨勢。在我看來，要在第三季度左右實現這一目標，您需要您的 HSB 業務在第二季度到第三季度連續增長 30% 左右——或者這是對全年指導的正確解釋？

Well, you definitely would need -- you will definitely see a sequential -- a larger-than-normal sequential increase from Q2 to Q3 in home standby just because you won't have the field inventory overhang. And so that's an artificial reduction in the first half.

好吧，你肯定會需要——你肯定會看到一個連續的——家庭待機從第二季度到第三季度的連續增長大於正常水平，因為你不會有現場庫存過剩。所以這是上半年的人為減少。

And then there's some normal seasonality that takes place.

然後會發生一些正常的季節性。

Yes, normal seasonality.

是的，正常的季節性。

Right. That's -- the season for home standby generators typically picks up in the third and fourth quarter. So...

正確的。那是——家庭備用發電機的季節通常在第三和第四季度回升。所以...

Sure...

當然...

Yes, you would expect to see a sizable increase in home standby that's what you're interpreting from our comments, yes.

是的，你會期望看到家庭待機的大幅增加，這就是你從我們的評論中所解釋的，是的。

And our next question comes from Donovan Schafer from Northland Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northland Capital Markets 的 Donovan Schafer。

I'd like to take a moment and just ask something a bit kind of maybe a higher level or not as maybe a near-term quarter-to-quarter issue. But in the last couple of years with how much -- it kind of feels like the home standby market itself has changed just with how much growth there's been with the COVID demand and everything. I'm wondering if you can give us an update on kind of the competitive landscape there.

我想花點時間問一些可能是更高級別的問題，也可能不是近期的季度問題。但在過去的幾年裡，有多少——感覺家庭備用市場本身已經發生了變化，只是隨著 COVID 需求和一切的增長而變化。我想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關那裡競爭格局的最新信息。

Of course, rising tide lifts all boats, so everyone can be doing well. But for a long time, you've talked about having the 75% market share. I'm curious if you still -- if your sense is still that, that's kind of where you are today, about 75% market share with home standby? Or if there are any changes there? Is that incrementally moving higher or lower even while everything rises? Or if you don't have that in particular, are you seeing competitors make any move saying, "Hey, this is getting to be a really big market," you purchase and own your own copper winding equipment because of the scale that you have, but if the whole market is growing, are you aware of like competitors making moves like that, buying their own copper winding equipment, anything like that kind of just this higher level update on the competitive dynamics in the home standby market?

當然，水漲船高，所以每個人都可以過得很好。但很長一段時間以來，你一直在談論擁有 75% 的市場份額。我很好奇你是否仍然 - 如果你的感覺仍然是，那就是你今天所處的位置，大約 75% 的家庭備用市場份額？或者那裡是否有任何變化？即使一切都在上漲，它是否會逐漸走高或走低？或者如果你沒有特別的，你是否看到競爭對手採取任何行動說，“嘿，這將成為一個非常大的市場，”你購買並擁有自己的銅繞線設備，因為你擁有的規模，但是如果整個市場都在增長，您是否知道像競爭對手那樣採取行動，購買他們自己的銅繞組設備，諸如此類的家庭備用市場競爭動態的更高水平更新？

Yes. No, it's a great question, Donovan. I mean we don't talk too much about that. I mean, we probably -- it's a good checkpoint. I would tell you that we believe our share is probably north of that 75%. We've probably grown over the last few years, a little bit probably more outsized. You're right, though, that a rising tide raises all boats there. And I think our competitors are -- first of all, the competitive set is the same. And it's been the same for almost 20 years in the category, which is interesting to me.

是的。不，這是一個很好的問題，多諾萬。我的意思是我們不會談論太多。我的意思是，我們可能 - 這是一個很好的檢查站。我會告訴你，我們相信我們的份額可能超過 75%。在過去的幾年裡，我們可能已經成長，規模可能更大了一點。不過，你是對的，漲潮會把那裡的所有船隻都抬起來。我認為我們的競爭對手是——首先，競爭對手是一樣的。在該類別中近 20 年都是一樣的，這對我來說很有趣。

And the 2 other competitors that play in that space, it's a much smaller part of their business, right? Like their businesses, their core businesses are other things. So for those competitors, the power -- the home standby generators in particular are a tertiary or even further down the pole kind of product line for them. So in terms of their focus, right, just raw focus on the products, the developments. We still are the only product in the market that has connectivity out of the box, right? So that we give homeowners -- every homeowner who buys a home standby today can get updates on the status of their generator through Mobile Link, which is our app or now they can get through the ecobee platform, which is awesome. We just rolled that out as part of our ecosystem.

而在該領域開展業務的其他 2 個競爭對手，這在他們的業務中所佔的比例要小得多，對吧？就像他們的業務一樣，他們的核心業務是其他事情。因此，對於那些競爭對手來說，電力——尤其是家用備用發電機對他們來說是第三甚至更遠的產品線。因此，就他們的關注點而言，對，只是對產品和開發的關注。我們仍然是市場上唯一具有開箱即用連接功能的產品，對嗎？因此，我們為房主提供 - 今天購買家庭備用設備的每個房主都可以通過我們的應用程序 Mobile Link 獲得發電機狀態的更新，或者現在他們可以通過 ecobee 平台獲得，這太棒了。我們只是將其作為我們生態系統的一部分推出。

Those types of things, our competitors don't have that. And that's I think one of the beautiful things about scale. And you pointed out that the advantages of that on the manufacturing side, right, our ability to invest heavily in the machine tooling and the capabilities we need to continue to drive the kind of not only the capacity that we need right to grow the market, which is where we struggled over the last few years until recently is getting capacity to increase at the rate of the increase in the market. But also the scale extends beyond just manufacturing.

那些類型的東西，我們的競爭對手沒有。這就是我認為規模的美妙之處之一。你指出了在製造方面的優勢，對，我們在機床上進行大量投資的能力以及我們需要繼續推動的能力不僅是我們發展市場所需的能力，這就是我們在過去幾年中苦苦掙扎的地方，直到最近，我們才開始以市場增長的速度增加產能。但規模也不僅僅局限於製造業。

Our ability to invest in driving sales leads. I mean we are spending tens of millions of dollars advertising to drive sales leads. The platform, PowerPlay, which is our sales selling platform, that's a unique platform in the marketplace. Our ability to recruit distribution, right, and to put the kind of focus on that effort. Again, if you're a smaller player in this market and for somebody that -- if you're in the -- if you're mid-single-digit kind of market share, a 10% share, and it's a small part of your business, too, you have to think about the context of making a business decision about investing that -- to that level. Even though it's a good market, I think that's a difficult decision to make if you're other -- if you're some of our competitors.

我們投資於推動銷售線索的能力。我的意思是我們正在花費數千萬美元做廣告來推動銷售線索。 PowerPlay 平台是我們的銷售平台，是市場上獨一無二的平台。我們有能力招募分銷，對，並將重點放在這種努力上。同樣，如果你在這個市場上是一個較小的參與者，而對於某個人來說——如果你在——如果你的市場份額是中等個位數，10% 的份額，這只是一小部分對於您的業務，您也必須考慮做出關於投資該級別的業務決策的背景。儘管這是一個很好的市場，但我認為如果你是其他人——如果你是我們的一些競爭對手，那麼做出這個決定是很困難的。

So we're trying to use our scale to continue to grow and to continue to do, I think, things that lead the industry. We've done that for 2 decades or more, and we're going to continue to do that in terms of leaning in to things like connectivity, things like the next-generation home standby generator, which we haven't talked much about, but we've got some really exciting product developments there that we'll talk about as the year progresses here.

因此，我們正試圖利用我們的規模繼續增長，並繼續做，我認為，引領行業的事情。我們已經這樣做了 20 年或更長時間，並且我們將繼續在諸如連接性之類的事情上這樣做，諸如下一代家用備用發電機之類的事情，我們沒有談論太多，但是我們在那裡有一些非常令人興奮的產品開發，我們將在這裡討論隨著時間的推移。

But that's the kind of thing that I think once we get -- once you unpack that, you look at what scale gets you, it's just one of those things where we've got that flywheel spinning very, very fast right now, and we continue to invest heavily in it.

但這就是我認為一旦我們得到的東西 - 一旦你打開它，你就會看到你的規模，這只是我們現在讓飛輪旋轉得非常非常快的事情之一，我們繼續對其進行大量投資。

And our next question comes from Maheep Mandloi from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Maheep Mandloi。

Firstly, I just want to check if -- do you assume any price reductions for the home standby generators in the guidance? And second question on the online channels versus your dealer and distributors. Could you just talk about that dynamic, what the share is and if you're seeing a growth in online versus dealers and how is that impacting the relationship with your traditional channels?

首先，我只想檢查一下，您是否假設指南中的家用備用發電機會降價？關於在線渠道與您的經銷商和分銷商的第二個問題。您能否談談這種動態，份額是多少，如果您看到在線與經銷商的增長以及這如何影響與傳統渠道的關係？

Yes. Thanks, Maheep. So I think I'll deal with it. From a share perspective, we don't break down the channel share. But our dealer channel is our biggest channel. It's a really important channel. Obviously, They do -- obviously, the lion's share of installations in the network that's not restricted just to dealers. I mean, if you're an electrical contractor, you can do installations as well and you have access to the product through an electrical wholesale channel, if you want to buy, but maybe you don't want to commit to the level that you need to commit to be a dealer, right, to carry inventory to supply service and to do the work there to be a dealer. It's a different level.

是的。謝謝，馬希普。所以我想我會處理它。從份額的角度來看，我們不分解渠道份額。但我們的經銷商渠道是我們最大的渠道。這是一個非常重要的渠道。顯然，他們這樣做了 - 顯然，網絡中安裝的大部分份額不僅限於經銷商。我的意思是，如果你是一名電氣承包商，你也可以進行安裝，並且你可以通過電氣批發渠道獲得產品，如果你想購買，但也許你不想承諾你的水平需要承諾成為經銷商，對，攜帶庫存以提供服務並在那裡做經銷商的工作。這是一個不同的層次。

Our e-commerce partners are also an important channel, though, and have been for some time. It's a great way for homeowners who -- if they find they want to project manage this on their own, right, hire their own electrical contractor or plumber to do the work, there might be a way for them to save a few dollars that way, but it's a little more work, right? A dealer provides a turnkey solution for most homeowners. And what we're finding is as the category matures, dealer share has grown faster than other channel share because more people who will get into the category really want a turnkey solution.

不過，我們的電子商務合作夥伴也是一個重要的渠道，並且已經存在了一段時間。對於房主來說，這是一個很好的方式——如果他們發現他們想自己進行項目管理，對吧，僱用他們自己的電氣承包商或水管工來完成這項工作，他們可能會通過這種方式節省幾美元，但這需要更多的工作，對吧？經銷商為大多數房主提供交鑰匙解決方案。我們發現，隨著類別的成熟，經銷商份額的增長速度快於其他渠道份額，因為更多進入該類別的人確實想要一個交鑰匙解決方案。

So dealers will pull the permit, they'll do all the work that's needed to make that a seamless project for the homeowner. As far as pricing, your question on pricing really, all we've built into the guide this year, and I think we've called this out, that's a higher level of promotion, as you would expect, as the category starts to normalize in terms to get to that new and higher level baseline level, we would expect a higher level of promotion. There's been very little in the way of promotion over the last several years. So when you think about price on a net basis, I would say there's some of that net price built in, there's probably less price this year -- lower price this year on a net basis than prior year simply because of increased discounts.

所以經銷商會取消許可證，他們會做所有必要的工作，使房主的項目無縫銜接。至於定價，你關於定價的問題真的，我們今年已經納入指南，我想我們已經提到了這一點，正如你所期望的那樣，隨著類別開始正常化，這是更高級別的促銷就達到新的和更高水平的基準水平而言，我們期望更高水平的晉升。在過去的幾年裡，晉升的方式很少。所以當你考慮淨價時，我會說有一些淨價是內置的，今年的價格可能會更低——今年的淨價比去年低，僅僅是因為折扣增加了。

Yes. Now that we've caught the backlog when you're in a position of backlog, you don't promote as much, but there's a normal cadence of promotion every year when you're not in backlog, and we'll revert back to that.

是的。既然我們已經在您處於積壓狀態時抓住了積壓，您就不會晉升那麼多，但是當您不處於積壓狀態時，每年都會有正常的晉升節奏，我們會恢復到那。

And our next question comes from Kashy Harrison from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Kashy Harrison。

So core sales in the C&I business in Q4 was about 27% it sounds like, and I think maybe 30% for the full year. You're indicating you have a record backlog and you're seeing strength across all segments. And so I was wondering if you could maybe speak to the durability of demand in C&I over a multiyear time period? And then maybe just provide some color as to why C&I revs are only up in the mid- to high single digits just given what you saw in Q4 and in 2022?

因此，第四季度 C&I 業務的核心銷售額聽起來約為 27%，我認為全年可能為 30%。您表示您有創紀錄的積壓工作，並且您在所有細分市場都看到了實力。所以我想知道你是否可以談談多年期間 C&I 需求的持久性？然後也許只是提供一些顏色，說明為什麼 C&I 的轉速僅上升到中高個位數，就像您在第四季度和 2022 年看到的那樣？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Kashy. The C&I business, we said in the prepared remarks, but it continues to outperform our expectations. They had a fantastic Q4. And so the durability of the demand, that is a lead time business, right? I think we've talked about this in the past. Our residential business, in particular, the home standby business, has not traditionally been a backlog business or a lead time business, even though it got to that position through the outsized demand that was happening over the last several years.

是的。謝謝你的問題，卡什。我們在準備好的評論中表示，C&I 業務的表現繼續超出我們的預期。他們有一個很棒的第四季度。因此需求的持久性，即交貨時間業務，對嗎？我想我們過去已經談過這個了。我們的住宅業務，尤其是家庭備用業務，傳統上並不是積壓業務或交貨時間業務，儘管它是通過過去幾年發生的超大需求而達到這一地位的。

But C&I has always been kind of a business, you look at book-to-bill, and we see record levels of backlog in that business as we exit 2022. And that's both domestically as well as internationally. And so that gives us confidence and, frankly, really good visibility into the year here. I would say that within that -- within the C&I business, there's a couple of big pieces of that, though, that where maybe visibility is less so and maybe kind of leads to why we're saying mid- to high single-digit growth for the year. The growth cycles for telecom and for our mobile equipment, which are generally sold through the larger national rental account customers can be a bit lumpy from time to time.

但 C&I 一直是一種業務，你看看訂單到賬單，我們看到 2022 年結束時該業務的積壓達到創紀錄水平。這在國內和國際上都是如此。因此，這給了我們信心，坦率地說，讓我們對今年有了很好的了解。我想說的是，在 C&I 業務中，有幾個很大的部分，雖然，可見度可能不那麼高，也許有點導致我們說中高個位數增長的原因今年。電信和我們的移動設備通常通過較大的國家租賃賬戶客戶銷售，其增長周期有時可能會有些波動。

They can turn the CapEx spending on and off quite quickly. And so we have some visibility based on forecasts, you can listen to as we always -- as we do when we dialogue with our national rental account customers, we listen to their guides on CapEx spending for the upcoming year. And they're all, by and large, kind of forecasting similar levels to last year, if not greater levels based on the company.

他們可以很快地打開和關閉資本支出。因此，我們有一些基於預測的可見性，你可以像往常一樣傾聽——就像我們在與全國租賃賬戶客戶對話時所做的那樣，我們聽取他們關於來年資本支出支出的指南。總的來說，他們都在預測與去年相似的水平，如果不是基於公司的更高水平的話。

And our telecom customers are also telling us they're continuing to build out their networks, harden their networks, they're focused on building out 5G. But look, we've been down this road before, and we're also -- we're cognizant of the fact that things can happen and they can turn the CapEx spending off quickly. So I think we're positioning a bit to say we have less visibility around telecom and national rental accounts versus some of our distributor business, both kind of internationally and domestically here, where we have a very good backlog and very good visibility.

我們的電信客戶也告訴我們他們正在繼續建設他們的網絡，加強他們的網絡，他們專注於建設 5G。但是看，我們以前一直走這條路，而且我們也——我們認識到事情可能會發生並且他們可以迅速關閉資本支出這一事實。因此，我認為我們的定位是說我們在電信和國家租賃賬戶方面的知名度低於我們的一些分銷商業務，無論是在國際還是國內，我們都有很好的積壓和非常好的知名度。

And we put all that together. And we also have some tougher comps in the second half of the year. Q4 was really, really heavy. And so kind of coming up against that tougher comp in the second half of the year, we're just -- that kind of manifests itself, I think, in a lower growth rate. So I think you put all that together, I think high -- kind of mid- to high single-digit growth still feels kind of appropriate right now at this kind of stage of the cycle, but we're watching it.

我們把所有這些放在一起。我們在下半年也有一些更強硬的組合。 Q4 真的非常非常重。因此，在今年下半年遇到更艱難的競爭，我們只是——我認為，這種表現在較低的增長率上。所以我認為你把所有這些放在一起，我認為高 - 在這種週期的這種階段，目前仍然感覺有點合適的中高個位數增長，但我們正在觀察它。

Our next question comes from Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Praneeth Satish。

I wanted to go back to HSB and the guidance for the large increase in the second half. I guess I'm just wondering how much improvement in installation capacity would you need to see over the course of the year to achieve that growth? And could you get there based on the current pace of installation capacity growth over the last few quarters? Or would you need to kind of see a more pronounced growth in installation capacity to support your revenue guidance for the second half?

我想回到 HSB 和下半年大幅上漲的指導。我想我只是想知道在這一年中您需要看到多少安裝容量的改進才能實現這種增長？根據過去幾個季度的當前裝機容量增長速度，您能否實現目標？或者您是否需要看到安裝容量有更顯著的增長來支持下半年的收入預期？

Yes. So it's a great question and fundamental, obviously, to how we think about the ability to hit these targets in the second half. We do need installation bandwidth to continue to expand and grow. Now we grew very nicely last year ended the year very strong in Q4. You've got normal seasonality that happens there. You get into the winter months here, the depths of the winter months. And as we would expect, activations are down versus fourth quarter because that's kind of pacing we normally see, right?

是的。所以這是一個很好的問題，很明顯，我們如何考慮在下半場實現這些目標的能力。我們確實需要安裝帶寬來繼續擴展和增長。現在我們在去年第四季度增長非常強勁。你有那裡發生的正常季節性。你在這裡進入冬季，進入冬季的深處。正如我們預期的那樣，與第四季度相比，激活有所下降，因為這是我們通常看到的那種節奏，對吧？

It's really hard to install product when there's a foot of snow on the ground or there's still frost in the ground in the Northeast, the Midwest, in other areas of the country like that. So -- but to answer your question directly, we do have built into the model that there is -- there has to be an increase yet in installation bandwidth. Now we added 500 new dealers in the back half of the year. That's going to help a lot, and we're going to continue to add dealers and focus on expanding distribution here throughout 2023 to pace towards that higher activation rate that we're going to need by the time we exit 2023.

當地面上有一英尺厚的雪或東北部、中西部以及該國其他地區的地面上仍有霜凍時，安裝產品真的很困難。所以 - 但為了直接回答您的問題，我們確實已經內置到現有模型中 - 安裝帶寬必須增加。現在我們在下半年新增了 500 家經銷商。這將有很大幫助，我們將繼續增加經銷商，並在整個 2023 年專注於擴大這裡的分銷，以加快我們在 2023 年退出時所需的更高激活率。

But I will say this, it's not the kind of increase like looking back, it's not the kind of increase we would have needed at this point last year. If we had probably been kind of -- I think we're more optimistic that the channel was going to respond favorably to our increase in capacity output at the factory, we felt that they were going to increase their installation capacity at the same -- commensurate with that pace.

但我要說的是，這不是回頭看的那種增長，也不是我們去年此時需要的那種增長。如果我們可能有點——我認為我們更樂觀地認為該渠道將對我們工廠產能輸出的增加做出積極反應，我們認為他們將同時增加他們的安裝能力——與那個節奏相稱。

And if you kind of stood back and looked at that, today, it's like, wow, okay, that's a really large -- the question you're asking, that's a really large increase last year. This year, it's not nearly the size increase year-over-year because we've made really good progress. And in Q4, we made really good progress as well on increasing activation. So it's a smaller kind of hill to climb than if you compare it to the prior year, it was a much bigger hill to climb. And again, looking back on that and now kind of fully understanding the challenges that distribution had in adding the labor they needed and doing all the things that they needed to do to respond on a commensurate basis with our capacity increases. That was really the fundamental problem we ran into in kind of running well past them in terms of shipments.

如果你有點退後一步看，今天，就像，哇，好吧，這真的很大 - 你問的問題，這是去年的一個非常大的增長。今年，它的規模幾乎沒有同比增長，因為我們取得了非常好的進展。在第四季度，我們在增加激活方面也取得了非常好的進展。因此，與前一年相比，這是一座更小的山坡，這是一座更大的山坡。再次回顧這一點，現在有點完全理解分配在增加他們需要的勞動力和做他們需要做的所有事情以在相應的基礎上響應我們的能力增長方面所面臨的挑戰。這確實是我們在出貨量方面遠遠超過他們時遇到的根本問題。

So that I think we feel better about where we're at today as we think about that hill we have to climb, but there is still an increase needed as we exit 2023.

所以我認為當我們想到我們必須攀登的那座山時，我們對我們今天所處的位置感覺更好，但在我們退出 2023 年時仍然需要增加。

And our next question comes from George Gianarikas from Canaccord Genuity.

我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 George Gianarikas。

Mine was a little longer term in nature. I know that the company's margins have deleveraged this year. But I'm wondering if there's anything structural over the long term that will hinder you from getting back to EBITDA margins in the low to mid-20s?

我的期限更長一些。我知道公司的利潤率今年已經去槓桿化了。但我想知道，從長遠來看，是否有任何結構性因素會阻礙您在 20 年代中期回到 EBITDA 利潤率？

Yes. No, this is York. Like just even thinking about our Q4 guide, so we're -- for Q4 2023, we're guiding to get back to those low 20% range, at least for that seasonal time period. So when you think about '24 and '25, we think we're well on our way to getting back to those levels on a full year basis. And I think with some continued growth and continued leverage, in particular, on the energy technology side, where -- we'll continue to grow that business and go from investment mode to -- in start-up mode to growth mode and profitability mode, that will definitely help improve the overall company's profitability in '24 and '25.

是的。不，這是約克。就像甚至考慮我們的第四季度指南一樣，所以我們 - 對於 2023 年第四季度，我們正在指導回到 20% 的低範圍，至少在那個季節期間是這樣。因此，當您考慮 24 和 25 年時，我們認為我們在全年恢復到這些水平的道路上進展順利。我認為，隨著一些持續的增長和持續的槓桿作用，特別是在能源技術方面，我們將繼續發展該業務並從投資模式轉變為 - 啟動模式到增長模式和盈利模式，這肯定有助於提高公司在 24 和 25 年的整體盈利能力。

Yes. And I think just on that point, York is right. I mean, we kind of alluded to it in the prepared remarks this morning, but we're investing heavily in that part of the business. And the growth rates are not there right now. They were -- we ran into our challenges, obviously, well documented here. And so we've got a lot of work to do around that. But we're -- I think the takeaway this morning for everybody is we're not pivoting away from it. We're going to continue to invest in it. We've brought in new leadership and strengthening that team, which is I think a really critical part of kind of our turnaround efforts, I'll just call it, what it is there when it comes to certain of those products in the energy tech space, we have work to do.

是的。我認為就這一點而言，約克是對的。我的意思是，我們在今天早上準備好的發言中提到了這一點，但我們正在大力投資這部分業務。而且現在還沒有增長率。他們 - 我們遇到了我們的挑戰，顯然，這裡有很好的記錄。因此，我們有很多工作要做。但我們——我認為今天早上對每個人來說要得出的結論是，我們並沒有放棄它。我們將繼續對其進行投資。我們引進了新的領導層並加強了該團隊，我認為這是我們扭轉局面的真正關鍵部分，我只是稱之為，當涉及到能源技術中的某些產品時，它是什麼空間，我們有工作要做。

And it's proving to be more difficult, and it's going to prove to be more costly than we originally anticipated. But we still think that it's worth the effort. This is an area where, again, the macro environment favors this based on everything we've talked about this morning, based on everything that is known out there in the marketplace. We think we have every right to play here. We think we have to execute better.

事實證明，這更加困難，而且成本將比我們最初預期的要高。但我們仍然認為這是值得的。這是一個宏觀環境再次支持這一領域的領域，基於我們今天早上所討論的一切，基於市場上已知的一切。我們認為我們完全有權在這裡比賽。我們認為我們必須執行得更好。

And to execute better, we're going to have to spend more money, and we're going to have to spend more time, and we're going to have to do things the right way going forward. And that's -- we own that, and we've addressed it. I feel really good about what we've done, the changes we've made in that business over the last 6 months. But it is still going to be a significant drag on kind of our EBITDA margins at least here in 2023, but that should relax as we go forward and we start to kind of recover in parts of that business.

為了更好地執行，我們將不得不花更多的錢，我們將不得不花費更多的時間，我們將不得不以正確的方式做事。那就是——我們擁有它，我們已經解決了它。我對我們所做的一切以及過去 6 個月我們在該業務中所做的改變感到非常滿意。但這仍然會嚴重拖累我們的 EBITDA 利潤率，至少在 2023 年是這樣，但隨著我們前進，我們應該會放鬆，我們開始在部分業務中復蘇。

And we see the continued growth in other parts of that business, like the ecobee pieces as well as grid services. So longer term, we are absolutely committed to it, and we're going to be successful there. If people think that this has scared us off or this is going to turn us away from it, they don't know us, they don't know me. We're definitely going to go after this business. We have every right to play here and every right to win here, and we're going to do that. It's just going to take more time and it's going to be a heavier investment than we had originally calibrated around.

我們看到該業務其他部分的持續增長，例如 ecobee 產品和網格服務。所以從長遠來看，我們絕對致力於它，我們將在那裡取得成功。如果人們認為這嚇壞了我們，或者這會讓我們遠離它，那麼他們不了解我們，他們不了解我。我們肯定會追求這項業務。我們完全有權利在這裡比賽，也有權利在這裡取勝，我們將這樣做。這只會花費更多時間，而且會比我們最初校準時投入更多。

And our next question comes from Henry Roberts from Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Henry Roberts。

This is Jordan Levy from Truist Securities. On the energy technology business, I just wanted to see if we could get some more insight into how you're thinking about the recovery of PWRcell? We moved through the year and regaining some of the ground that was lost there this year in terms of your guidance, which of $300 million to $350 million for the year for the entire segment?

我是來自 Truist Securities 的 Jordan Levy。關於能源技術業務，我只是想看看我們是否可以更深入地了解您對 PWRcell 回收的看法？根據您的指導，我們度過了這一年並收復了今年在那裡失去的一些土地，整個部門今年的 3 億至 3.5 億美元中的哪一個？

Yes, it's a great question, Jordan. That PWRcell business is exactly what I was talking about in the previous question. And we've got -- basically, that's going to sequentially improve throughout the year. That's kind of how we're kind of viewing our expectations for the year, we're coming off of a pretty low base just in terms of where we're at because of the loss of that major customer in the third quarter last year. We've got to rebuild and build a stronger distribution network for those products, and we've got to recover confidence from the market in general in those products.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，喬丹。 PWRcell 業務正是我在上一個問題中所說的。我們已經 - 基本上，這將在全年依次改善。這就是我們對今年的預期的一種方式，由於去年第三季度失去了那個主要客戶，就我們所處的位置而言，我們的基數非常低。我們必須為這些產品重建和建立更強大的分銷網絡，我們必須恢復市場對這些產品的總體信心。

We're having those conversations. We're making the right improvements to the product and have been making that over the back half of this year. Now we've got to get back to selling. We've got to get back to engaging with the channel and building out and finding new distribution partners to work with on that. I think what's really exciting about that and not trying to turn it into a 2024 story. But as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we have our next generation of our storage device that is going to alpha testing here. We'll start shipping that in Q2, and we'll hopefully expand that to beta testing by -- throughout the back half of this year.

我們正在進行這些對話。我們正在對產品進行正確的改進，並在今年下半年一直在進行。現在我們必須回到銷售。我們必須重新開始與渠道互動，建立並尋找新的分銷合作夥伴來與之合作。我認為真正令人興奮的是，而不是試圖將其變成 2024 年的故事。但正如我在準備好的評論中提到的，我們的下一代存儲設備將在這裡進行 alpha 測試。我們將在第二季度開始發貨，我們希望在今年下半年將其擴展到 Beta 測試。

But we've -- I've seen some prototypes of it in our team. We've got -- again, we've got a very different technical team that's working on that product today than what was working on the original kind of what we refer to as our R1 product, the acquired product from Pike Energy, which we've worked to improve and harden. But we're looking forward to the next-generation device. And we're very excited about what that device is going to be able to do in the market.

但是我們 - 我已經在我們的團隊中看到了它的一些原型。我們有——再一次，我們有一個非常不同的技術團隊，他們今天正在研究該產品，而不是研究我們稱之為 R1 產品的原始類型，即從 Pike Energy 收購的產品，我們努力改進和強化。但我們期待著下一代設備。我們對該設備將能夠在市場上做什麼感到非常興奮。

I don't want to kind of ruin the surprise for everybody at this point. But I think, as we pace throughout here throughout 2023, we'll be able to give you some more commentary around how it's going. We're going to do a lot of extended field testing, obviously, in that product to make sure it's ready for prime time when we get to it next year. But the team is very encouraged. And again, I think it just -- it fits well with my previous comments on how important we see residential energy storage being for the future.

在這一點上，我不想破壞大家的驚喜。但我認為，隨著我們在整個 2023 年在這裡走來走去，我們將能夠就它的進展情況向您提供更多評論。顯然，我們將對該產品進行大量擴展的現場測試，以確保它在我們明年到達黃金時段時做好準備。但是團隊很受鼓舞。再說一次，我認為這與我之前關於我們認為住宅儲能對未來有多重要的評論非常吻合。

It's an incredibly important product category, especially in light of things like NEM 3.0 in California. Really to make the economics work for solar in California today, you got to add a storage device. And frankly, homeowners want that anyway because they want the resiliency, they want the ability to improve the payback on that solar investment and they're going to need storage. And so we're very focused on that. We're very focused on what the supply chain changes are going to need to be around not only the batteries, the packs and the other components here as the Inflation Reduction Act really kind of starts to take hold and you get these production tax credit opportunities for domestic manufacturing or North American manufacturing.

這是一個非常重要的產品類別，尤其是考慮到加利福尼亞州的 NEM 3.0 之類的事情。要想真正使今天加利福尼亞的太陽能在經濟上發揮作用，您必須添加一個存儲設備。坦率地說，房主無論如何都想要這樣，因為他們想要彈性，他們希望能夠提高太陽能投資的回報率，並且他們將需要存儲。所以我們非常專注於此。我們非常關注供應鏈的變化不僅需要圍繞電池、電池組和這裡的其他組件進行，因為通貨膨脹減少法案真的開始生效，你將獲得這些生產稅收抵免機會用於國內製造或北美製造。

As that becomes clearer, we'll start to also really have that reflected in our supply chain for those products. So there's a lot of work to be done there. I think it maybe goes hand-in-hand with my comments a minute ago around the investment level needed to be successful here, even though PWRcell itself, we've got recovery to do there. And I think we're still -- we're going to be okay as we go out throughout this year. We're still investing heavily in next-generation products and where we're going for the future.

隨著這一點變得更加清晰，我們將開始在這些產品的供應鏈中真正反映出來。所以那裡有很多工作要做。我認為這可能與我一分鐘前關於在這裡取得成功所需的投資水平的評論密切相關，即使 PWRcell 本身，我們已經在那裡做恢復。而且我認為我們仍然 - 我們會在今年全年外出時沒事。我們仍在大力投資下一代產品以及我們未來的發展方向。

And I am showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mike Harris for closing remarks.

我不再提出更多問題。我現在想把電話轉回給 Mike Harris 以作結束語。

We want to thank everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to discussing our first quarter 2023 earnings results with you in early May. Thank you again, and goodbye.

我們要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待在 5 月初與您討論我們 2023 年第一季度的收益結果。再次感謝你，再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。