Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Generac Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Mike Harris, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Generac 2022 年第三季度收益結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者，公司發展和投資者關係高級副總裁 Mike Harris 先生。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2022 earnings call. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. With me today is Aaron Jagdfeld, President and Chief Executive Officer; and York Ragen, Chief Financial Officer.

早上好，歡迎來到我們的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Aaron Jagdfeld；和首席財務官 York Ragen。

We will begin our call today by commenting on forward-looking statements. Certain statements made during this presentation, as well as other information provided from time to time by Generac or its employees, may contain forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Please see our earnings release or SEC filings for a list of words or expressions that identify such statements and the associated risk factors.

我們今天將通過評論前瞻性陳述開始我們的電話會議。本演示文稿中的某些陳述以及 Generac 或其員工不時提供的其他信息可能包含前瞻性陳述，並涉及可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述產生重大差異的風險和不確定性。請參閱我們的收益發布或 SEC 文件，以獲取識別此類陳述和相關風險因素的詞語或表達方式列表。

In addition, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures during today's call. Additional information regarding these measures, including reconciliation to comparable U.S. GAAP measures, is available in our earnings release and SEC filings.

此外，我們將在今天的電話會議中參考某些非公認會計原則的措施。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比較的美國公認會計原則措施的對賬，請參閱我們的收益發布和 SEC 文件。

I will now turn the call over to Aaron.

我現在將把電話轉給 Aaron。

Thanks, Mike. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Our third quarter was in line with the preliminary results we announced on October 19. Momentum in the commercial and industrial product category remains strong, but residential product sales, while still growing compared with the prior year, were weaker than expected in the quarter, driven by lower shipments of home standby generators and clean energy products relative to our prior expectations.

謝謝，邁克。大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。我們的第三季度與我們在 10 月 19 日公佈的初步結果一致。商業和工業產品類別的勢頭依然強勁，但住宅產品銷售雖然與去年相比仍保持增長，但在本季度的推動下弱於預期由於家用備用發電機和清潔能源產品的出貨量低於我們之前的預期。

Year-over-year, overall net sales increased 15% to $1.09 billion, primarily driven by core sales growth of 10%, which exclude the impact of acquisitions and foreign currency. Overall, residential product sales grew 9% during the quarter, led by sales of home standby generators and the impact from recent acquisitions, partially offset by lower shipments of PWRcell energy storage systems.

總體淨銷售額同比增長 15% 至 10.9 億美元，主要受核心銷售額增長 10% 的推動，其中不包括收購和外彙的影響。總體而言，住宅產品銷售額在本季度增長了 9%，主要受家用備用發電機的銷售和近期收購的影響，部分被 PWRcell 儲能係統出貨量下降所抵消。

C&I product sales increased 20%, led by growth across all channels domestically, strength in the European region and the contribution from recent acquisitions.

C&I 產品銷售額增長 20%，主要得益於國內所有渠道的增長、歐洲地區的實力以及近期收購的貢獻。

Now discussing our third quarter results in more detail. Home standby generator sales grew at a mid-teens rate over the prior year. Baseline power outage activity in the U.S. during the quarter remained above the long-term baseline average and Hurricane Ian, which occurred in the last week of the quarter, drove total power outage activity well above the long-term average.

現在更詳細地討論我們的第三季度業績。家用備用發電機的銷售量比上年增長了十幾倍。本季度美國的基線停電活動仍高於長期基線平均水平，而本季度最後一周發生的伊恩颶風使總停電活動遠高於長期平均水平。

Home consultations or sales leads were lower in the quarter when compared to the prior year, which included Hurricane Ida. However, the third quarter of 2022 was tied for the second highest total for any given quarter since we began tracking the metric in 2013. And we experienced a return to year-over-year growth in the month of October resulting from Hurricane Ian.

與上一年（包括颶風艾達）相比，本季度的家庭諮詢或銷售線索較低。然而，自 2013 年我們開始跟踪該指標以來，2022 年第三季度的總數並列第二高。由於颶風伊恩，我們在 10 月份經歷了同比增長的恢復。

We continue to focus on expanding our distribution network as we experienced sequential growth in our residential dealer base and ended the quarter with nearly 8,500 dealer partners, a net increase of approximately 300 dealers sequentially.

我們繼續專注於擴大我們的分銷網絡，因為我們的住宅經銷商群連續增長，並在本季度末擁有近 8,500 家經銷商合作夥伴，環比淨增加約 300 家經銷商。

Activations, which are a proxy for installs, continued to grow in the third quarter compared to the prior year. However, as we mentioned in our preliminary announcement, installation capacity for home standby generators lagged our production output. The ability of installing contractors to fully service the demand for backup power from homeowners continues to be constrained by labor availability, permitting and utility-related delays and shortages in certain materials needed to complete an installation.

與去年同期相比，第三季度的激活量（代表安裝量）繼續增長。然而，正如我們在初步公告中提到的，家用備用發電機的安裝能力落後於我們的產量。安裝承包商以充分滿足房主對備用電源需求的能力繼續受到勞動力可用性、許可和與公用事業相關的延遲以及完成安裝所需的某些材料的短缺的限制。

Furthermore, growth in our dealer base was constrained in prior quarters by our extended production lead times. All of this resulted in elevated levels of field inventory and lower-than-expected orders from our channel partners despite the continued strength in end customer demand.

此外，我們的經銷商基礎的增長在前幾個季度受到我們延長的生產交貨時間的限制。儘管最終客戶需求持續強勁，但所有這些都導致現場庫存水平升高，渠道合作夥伴的訂單低於預期。

Importantly, to address these activation challenges, we're working on a number of specific initiatives to increase home standby installation bandwidth, such as providing resources to help existing dealers expand their labor forces and additional installation training locally for non-dealer contractors. We are working to streamline home standby projects by creating universal permitting packages and replicating past successes and simplifying approval processes from certain local utilities.

重要的是，為了應對這些激活挑戰，我們正在製定一些具體舉措來增加家庭備用安裝帶寬，例如提供資源以幫助現有經銷商擴大勞動力，並在當地為非經銷商承包商提供額外的安裝培訓。我們正在努力通過創建通用許可包和復製過去的成功以及簡化某些當地公用事業公司的審批流程來簡化家庭備用項目。

Other efficiency-related initiatives include dealer scheduling and quotation refinement to enhance the top of the sales funnel and optimize the allocation of sales leads within the dealer channel to favor those dealers that have capacity to install more generators. Importantly, we have also intensified efforts to further expand our overall dealer count, and we expect another strong quarter of sequential growth in the fourth quarter.

其他與效率相關的舉措包括經銷商調度和報價細化，以增強銷售漏斗的頂部並優化經銷商渠道內的銷售線索分配，以支持那些有能力安裝更多發電機的經銷商。重要的是，我們還加緊努力進一步擴大我們的整體經銷商數量，我們預計第四季度將出現另一個強勁的季度增長。

Our dealer count growth initiatives have recently benefited from our shorter production lead times, which have now mostly returned to normal levels as we ramped our production output of home standby generators in prior quarters.

我們的經銷商數量增長計劃最近受益於我們更短的生產提前期，隨著我們在前幾個季度增加了家用備用發電機的產量，現在大部分時間已經恢復到正常水平。

Although installation capacity constraints have resulted in lower orders from our channel partners, it is important to reiterate that underlying demand and market fundamentals of the home standby category remains strong as supported by meaningfully sequential improvements in a number of key dealer-related metrics during the third quarter. In-home consultations grew, close rates continue to rebound, and while still elevated, the time between contract signing and installation declined meaningfully as compared to the second quarter.

儘管安裝能力限制導致我們渠道合作夥伴的訂單減少，但重要的是要重申，家庭備用類別的潛在需求和市場基本面仍然強勁，這得益於第三季度許多與經銷商相關的關鍵指標的有意義的連續改善四分之一。家庭諮詢量增加，成交率繼續回升，雖然仍處於較高水平，但與第二季度相比，合同簽訂和安裝之間的時間顯著下降。

Dealer productivity, as measured by activations per day per dealer, improved to an all-time high during the third quarter. In addition, our dealer survey data suggests approximately half of all the field inventory is allocated to an active customer contract, highlighting the need to further increase the pace of installs to close the gap between strong end customer demand and installation capacity.

以每個經銷商每天的激活量來衡量的經銷商生產力在第三季度提高到了歷史最高水平。此外，我們的經銷商調查數據表明，大約一半的現場庫存分配給了有效的客戶合同，這突出表明需要進一步加快安裝速度，以縮小強勁的最終客戶需求與安裝能力之間的差距。

While the previously mentioned sequential improvements provide evidence that our channel partners are beginning to make progress in working through their elevated backlogs and field inventory, we expect home standby order headwinds to persist through the first half of 2023 as field inventory levels normalize. Even when assuming no major outage events, in the second half of 2023, we expect significant sequential sales growth from the first half of the year and only a modest decline in sales on a year-over-year basis as we maintain a new and higher baseline level of demand.

雖然前面提到的連續改進證明我們的渠道合作夥伴已開始在解決其高積壓和現場庫存方面取得進展，但我們預計隨著現場庫存水平正常化，家庭備用訂單逆風將持續到 2023 年上半年。即使假設沒有重大停電事件，在 2023 年下半年，我們預計今年上半年的銷售額將出現顯著的連續增長，並且銷售額同比只會適度下降，因為我們保持了新的和更高的需求的基線水平。

Over the last 30 years, the home standby category has grown in a step function pattern as penetration rates have expanded rapidly for several years at a time, driven by notable major power outage events, followed by periods of flatter growth as demand normalizes. With each successive growth period comes increased awareness around home standby generators and increased distribution for these products, both of which have been critical in helping the category reach new and higher levels of baseline demand.

在過去的 30 年中，家庭備用類別以階梯函數模式增長，因為在重大停電事件的推動下，滲透率連續數年快速增長，隨後隨著需求正常化而出現平穩增長。隨著每個連續的增長期，人們對家用備用發電機的認識增加，這些產品的分銷增加，這兩者對於幫助該類別達到新的和更高水平的基線需求至關重要。

The latest growth step that the product category has experienced was underpinned by an increase in power outage activity over the past several years, with 4 of the top 10 major outage events since 2010 having occurred in just the last 2 years alone. This growth can be evidenced through a number of key market metrics in comparing the first 3 quarters of 2022 to the comparable period of 2019 as activations per day more than doubled, home consultations more than tripled and our dealer count increased by nearly 40% from 6,200 to 8,500.

過去幾年停電活動的增加為該產品類別經歷的最新增長提供了支撐，自 2010 年以來的前 10 名主要停電事件中有 4 次發生在僅過去 2 年。這一增長可以通過將 2022 年前 3 個季度與 2019 年可比期間進行比較的一些關鍵市場指標來證明，因為每天的激活量增加了一倍以上，家庭諮詢量增加了兩倍多，我們的經銷商數量從 6,200 家增加了近 40%到 8,500。

The approximate mid-teens compounded annual growth rate in the category over the past several decades can be tied to the increase in power outages over that time as the nation's electrical grid has struggled to reliably supply power to homeowners and businesses. The aging and under-invested grid infrastructure has become more vulnerable to the increasing severity of high-impact weather-related events, such as hurricanes, heat waves, tornadoes, ice storms and polar vortexes.

在過去幾十年中，該類別的大約十幾歲的複合年增長率可能與當時停電的增加有關，因為該國的電網一直在努力為房主和企業提供可靠的電力供應。老化和投資不足的電網基礎設施變得更容易受到日益嚴重的高影響天氣相關事件的影響，例如颶風、熱浪、龍捲風、冰暴和極地渦旋。

Additionally, new mega trends have emerged that we believe will drive the next step of growth in the category. Grid resiliency concerns have been increasing as decarbonization trends accelerate, causing a widening gap between supply and demand, leaving many utilities and grid operators scrambling to avoid rolling blackouts over the past several years. And we believe little has been done to rectify this situation.

此外，新的大趨勢已經出現，我們相信這些趨勢將推動該類別的下一步增長。隨著脫碳趨勢的加速，電網彈性問題不斷增加，導致供需之間的差距不斷擴大，使得許多公用事業和電網運營商在過去幾年中爭先恐後地避免輪流停電。我們認為，在糾正這種情況方面幾乎沒有採取任何措施。

We also believe the home as a sanctuary megatrend will persist as the shift to remote or hybrid work remains intact. The electrification of homes continues to grow and demographic trends are driving increased levels of aging in place. With the nationwide penetration rate still in the mid-single-digit range, and these megatrends firmly intact, we are confident that the long-term growth trajectory for the home standby category remains significant.

我們還認為，隨著向遠程或混合工作的轉變保持不變，作為庇護所的大趨勢將持續存在。家庭電氣化繼續增長，人口趨勢正在推動老齡化水平的提高。由於全國范圍內的滲透率仍處於中個位數範圍內，並且這些大趨勢保持不變，我們相信家庭待機類別的長期增長軌跡仍然顯著。

I'd now like to discuss our residential clean energy products as shipments of PWRcell energy storage systems in the third quarter were negatively impacted by the significant liquidity challenges of a large customer that ceased operations and subsequently filed for bankruptcy. Additionally, during the quarter, we continued to address certain warranty-related matters for the upgrade of a component within our PWRcell energy storage system. As part of this effort, we have engaged a number of third-party service companies to assist with the completion of these upgrades, and these efforts are well underway.

我現在想討論一下我們的住宅清潔能源產品，因為第三季度 PWRcell 儲能係統的出貨量受到大型客戶的重大流動性挑戰的負面影響，該客戶停止運營並隨後申請破產。此外，在本季度，我們繼續解決某些與保修相關的問題，以升級我們的 PWRcell 儲能係統中的組件。作為這項工作的一部分，我們已經聘請了一些第三方服務公司來協助完成這些升級，這些工作正在順利進行。

As a result of these items, we recorded a $55 million charge in the quarter, comprised of an $18 million bad debt reserve and a $37 million warranty charge. The challenges we experienced in our clean energy business in the third quarter were very disappointing, but we believe that the solar-plus energy storage market continues to represent an important strategic opportunity for Generac longer term.

由於這些項目，我們在本季度記錄了 5500 萬美元的費用，其中包括 1800 萬美元的壞賬準備金和 3700 萬美元的保修費用。我們在第三季度在清潔能源業務中遇到的挑戰非常令人失望，但我們認為太陽能+儲能市場繼續代表著 Generac 長期的重要戰略機遇。

However, this quarter's results have demonstrated the need for us to further expand our distribution by focusing our efforts on partnering with high-quality, reputable sales and installation companies for these products. Importantly, we are committed to supporting the dealers that are participating in our warranty coverage upgrade program as they play a vital role in restoring our competitive position in the residential clean energy space.

然而，本季度的業績表明，我們需要通過集中精力與這些產品的高質量、信譽良好的銷售和安裝公司合作來進一步擴大我們的分銷。重要的是，我們致力於支持參與我們保修範圍升級計劃的經銷商，因為他們在恢復我們在住宅清潔能源領域的競爭地位方面發揮著至關重要的作用。

In addition, we continue to broaden our product offering and bring new innovations to this market as we announced an update to the PWRcell energy storage system during the quarter that enables AC-coupled battery storage, as well as AC generator integration.

此外，隨著我們在本季度宣布對 PWRcell 儲能係統進行更新，以實現交流耦合電池存儲以及交流發電機集成，我們將繼續擴大我們的產品範圍並為該市場帶來新的創新。

Work also continues on our PV microinverter product called the PWRmicro, as our beta testing began late in the second quarter and will continue through the balance of this year. We anticipate a phased commercial rollout beginning in the first half of 2023 and a full commercial launch targeted for the second half of the year.

我們的光伏微型逆變器產品 PWRmicro 的工作還在繼續，因為我們的 beta 測試在第二季度末開始，並將持續到今年剩餘時間。我們預計從 2023 年上半年開始分階段商業推出，並在下半年進行全面商業推出。

I'd now like to provide a quick update on our ecobee acquisition, which we completed last December. During the initial period of our ownership, we have been focused on developing cross-selling opportunities for ecobee's hardware solutions through Generac's distribution partners, and have seen positive indications of demand for smart thermostats alongside other clean energy products.

我現在想快速介紹一下我們去年 12 月完成的收購 ecobee 的情況。在我們擁有的初期，我們一直專注於通過 Generac 的分銷合作夥伴為 ecobee 的硬件解決方案開發交叉銷售機會，並且看到了對智能恆溫器以及其他清潔能源產品的需求的積極跡象。

Synergies between ecobee and Generac's grid services teams continues to be validated, and we are identifying higher potential value creation for ecobee devices and demand response programs amid ongoing concerns around grid stability and rising energy prices.

ecobee 和 Generac 電網服務團隊之間的協同作用繼續得到驗證，在對電網穩定性和能源價格上漲的持續擔憂中，我們正在為 ecobee 設備和需求響應計劃確定更高的潛在價值創造。

We have also begun leveraging the talented ecobee team to help accelerate our connected devices strategy, which is core to the development of our residential energy ecosystem that will ultimately be accessed and controlled by a single pane glass user interface.

我們還開始利用才華橫溢的 ecobee 團隊來幫助加速我們的互聯設備戰略，這是我們住宅能源生態系統發展的核心，最終將通過單一窗格玻璃用戶界面進行訪問和控制。

I also want to provide some additional color on the efforts of our grid services team as they continue to execute on a growing and diversified sales pipeline. We have further expanded our efforts to extract synergies across our commercial teams as they work to offer an increasing mix of Generac hardware alongside our Concerto grid services software platform. Our comprehensive suite of solutions aimed at distributed energy resource management-related programs is unmatched and is proving to be a competitive differentiator for our grid services team as the number of devices and megawatts of capacity connected to the Concerto platform continues to grow.

我還想為我們的網格服務團隊的努力提供一些額外的色彩，因為他們繼續執行不斷增長和多樣化的銷售渠道。隨著我們的商業團隊致力於提供越來越多的 Generac 硬件以及我們的 Concerto 網格服務軟件平台，我們進一步擴大了我們的努力，以在我們的商業團隊中提取協同效應。隨著連接到 Concerto 平台的設備數量和兆瓦容量的持續增長，我們針對分佈式能源管理相關計劃的綜合解決方案套件是無與倫比的，並且被證明是我們電網服務團隊的競爭優勢。

We announced a number of program wins since our second quarter call, including Software-as-a-Service contracts with Dominion Energy and U.K.-based Pearlstone Energy, as well as a performance contract with Arizona Public Service, which demonstrates Generac's unique ability to deliver end-to-end solutions in grid services programs.

自第二季度電話會議以來，我們宣布了多項計劃勝利，包括與 Dominion Energy 和英國 Pearlstone Energy 簽訂的軟件即服務合同，以及與 Arizona Public Service 簽訂的績效合同，這證明了 Generac 獨特的交付能力網格服務程序中的端到端解決方案。

The long-term market opportunities for residential energy storage, microinverters, monitoring and management devices and grid services solutions remains highly attractive and core to our strategic vision. However, the loss of a major customer during the quarter, along with the specific warranty-related issue, has impacted near-term demand and our outlook for the full year 2022. We now expect the combination of clean energy technology products and services to deliver sales between $300 million to $330 million for the full year 2022 as compared to our previous guidance of approximately $500 million.

住宅儲能、微型逆變器、監控和管理設備以及電網服務解決方案的長期市場機會仍然極具吸引力，也是我們戰略願景的核心。然而，本季度主要客戶的流失以及特定的保修相關問題影響了近期需求和我們對 2022 年全年的展望。我們現在預計清潔能源技術產品和服務的結合將提供2022 年全年銷售額在 3 億美元至 3.3 億美元之間，而我們之前的指導約為 5 億美元。

Our continued investment in the people and processes involved in the development of these products remains a key focal area for the company, as we work to further broaden our product offering, while also improving the quality and performance of the technologies we've acquired and developed over the last 3 years. With that in mind, we're building a talented and focused clean energy technology management team, beginning with the addition of Norm Taffe in August as our new President of this organization, along with the new Chief Technology Officer, Senior Vice President of Finance and a Senior Vice President of Policy. Norm and his team bring decades of industry leadership experience, as well as robust technical expertise that will help drive Generac's integrated clean energy technology solutions forward.

我們對參與這些產品開發的人員和流程的持續投資仍然是公司的重點領域，因為我們努力進一步擴大我們的產品供應，同時提高我們獲得和開發的技術的質量和性能在過去的 3 年中。考慮到這一點，我們正在建立一支才華橫溢且專注的清潔能源技術管理團隊，首先是 Norm Taffe 於 8 月作為我們該組織的新總裁加入，以及新的首席技術官、財務和高級副總裁以及政策高級副總裁。 Norm 和他的團隊帶來了數十年的行業領導經驗以及強大的技術專長，這將有助於推動 Generac 的集成清潔能源技術解決方案向前發展。

Additionally, the policy backdrop for this market has never been more favorable with the Inflation Reduction Act providing the necessary visibility for long-term value-creating investments. We will continue to build out our energy technology leadership team and our suite of products and solutions as we expect to play an important role in the transition to a cleaner, more sustainable and more reliable electric grid.

此外，該市場的政策背景從未像現在這樣有利，因為《通脹降低法案》為長期創造價值的投資提供了必要的可見性。我們將繼續建立我們的能源技術領導團隊以及我們的產品和解決方案套件，因為我們希望在向更清潔、更可持續和更可靠的電網過渡中發揮重要作用。

As a result of these investments and the strong outlook for this market, we expect clean energy technology sales to return to strong growth for the full year 2023, with sequentially improving results throughout the year.

由於這些投資和該市場的強勁前景，我們預計清潔能源技術銷售將在 2023 年全年恢復強勁增長，全年業績將繼續改善。

Our C&I products continue to perform exceptionally well in the quarter, as global C&I net sales increased 20% on an as-reported basis and 23% on a core sales basis, which excludes the impact from acquisitions and foreign currency as compared to the prior year. Both in-shipments for domestic C&I products in the third quarter was led by strength across national rental equipment, telecom and industrial distributor customers.

我們的 C&I 產品在本季度繼續表現出色，全球 C&I 淨銷售額在報告的基礎上增長了 20%，在核心銷售基礎上增長了 23%，這不包括收購和外彙的影響。 .第三季度國內 C&I 產品的出貨量均由全國租賃設備、電信和工業分銷商客戶的實力引領。

We experienced continued strength in demand during the quarter as backlog for our C&I products remained at record levels, and expanded further in the month of October, giving us excellent visibility that solid growth will continue in the category well into 2023.

我們在本季度經歷了持續強勁的需求，因為我們的 C&I 產品的積壓保持在創紀錄的水平，並在 10 月份進一步擴大，使我們非常清楚地看到該類別將繼續穩健增長到 2023 年。

Shipments of C&I stationary generators through our North American distributor channel grew significantly again in the third quarter, and order trends indicate this momentum will continue in the quarters ahead as backlog in the channel increased on a sequential basis. Quoting activity and close rates remain elevated compared to prior year levels, highlighting our market share gains, as well as the durability of demand trends for backup power for C&I applications.

第三季度通過我們的北美分銷商渠道的工商業固定式發電機的出貨量再次顯著增長，訂單趨勢表明，隨著渠道積壓訂單環比增加，這種勢頭將在未來幾個季度繼續增長。與去年水平相比，報價活動和成交率仍然較高，突顯了我們的市場份額增長以及 C&I 應用備用電源需求趨勢的持久性。

Shipments to national telecom customers also increased again during the third quarter as compared to the prior year, as several of our larger national customers continue to invest in hardening their existing sites and the build-out of their fifth generation or 5G networks. These networks are increasingly considered as part of the nation's critical infrastructure, and require backup power for resiliency. Upgrades to telecom infrastructure remain one of the key megatrends that we expect to drive growth for our business in the coming years as global tower and network hub counts continue to expand.

與去年同期相比，第三季度對國家電信客戶的出貨量也再次增加，因為我們的一些較大的國家客戶繼續投資加強其現有站點和第五代或 5G 網絡的建設。這些網絡越來越多地被視為國家關鍵基礎設施的一部分，並且需要備用電源以實現彈性。隨著全球鐵塔和網絡樞紐數量的不斷增加，電信基礎設施的升級仍然是我們預計未來幾年將推動我們業務增長的主要大趨勢之一。

We also experienced another quarter of substantial growth with our national and independent rental equipment customers as they continue to invest in equipment to refresh and expand their fleets. We anticipate the demand environment for mobile products will remain robust in the quarters ahead as the mega trend around the critical need for infrastructure improvements continues to play out.

我們還與我們的國家和獨立租賃設備客戶一起經歷了另一個季度的大幅增長，因為他們繼續投資設備以更新和擴大他們的機隊。我們預計移動產品的需求環境將在未來幾個季度保持強勁，因為圍繞基礎設施改進的關鍵需求的大趨勢繼續發揮作用。

Strong customer interest for our natural gas generators used in applications beyond traditional emergency standby projects also continued in the quarter, with sales of these products growing at an exceptional rate. We believe we are in the very early innings of growth for this exciting new market opportunity, as grid stability concerns and volatile energy markets are expected to further drive demand for these innovative solutions.

客戶對我們用於傳統應急備用項目以外應用的天然氣發電機的強烈興趣在本季度也持續存在，這些產品的銷售額以驚人的速度增長。我們相信，我們正處於這一激動人心的新市場機遇的早期增長階段，因為電網穩定性問題和動蕩的能源市場預計將進一步推動對這些創新解決方案的需求。

We also took a significant step forward in our C&I generator connectivity efforts shortly after quarter end with the acquisition of Blue Pillar, an industrial Internet of Things platform developer that enables distributed energy generation monitoring and control. Blue Pillar's connectivity solutions can make previously stranded C&I backup generators available for using grid services programs by connection to the Concerto software platform, and will provide a foundation for our longer-term vision of creating a single user interface for a suite of connected C&I assets.

季度結束後不久，我們在 C&I 發電機連接工作方面也邁出了重要一步，收購了 Blue Pillar，這是一家工業物聯網平台開發商，可實現分佈式能源發電監測和控制。 Blue Pillar 的連接解決方案可以通過連接到 Concerto 軟件平台，使以前擱淺的 C&I 備用發電機可用於使用電網服務程序，並將為我們為一套連接的 C&I 資產創建單一用戶界面的長期願景奠定基礎。

Our International segment continued to experience very strong momentum, as total sales increased 14% year-over-year during the third quarter, with 22% core total sales growth when excluding the benefit of acquisitions and the unfavorable impact of foreign currency. Core total sales growth was driven by strength across all regions, most notably in Europe and Latin America, with intersegment sales also growing substantially in the quarter as our Generac Mexico facility further ramps production of telecom products for the North American market.

我們的國際業務繼續保持強勁勢頭，第三季度總銷售額同比增長 14%，排除收購收益和外匯不利影響後，核心總銷售額增長 22%。核心總銷售額增長是由所有地區的實力推動的，尤其是在歐洲和拉丁美洲，隨著我們的 Generac 墨西哥工廠進一步提高北美市場的電信產品產量，本季度的跨部門銷售額也大幅增長。

The European region has seen remarkably strong demand across product lines, most notably in C&I and portable generators due to a heightened focus on energy independence and security.

由於對能源獨立性和安全性的高度關注，歐洲地區的產品線需求非常強勁，尤其是在 C&I 和便攜式發電機方面。

Concerns over power security amid the conflict in Ukraine have continued to rise, and we are providing backup generators to the region through our European sales branches. Longer-term demand trends are less certain, however, as geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions in the region remain volatile, but end market awareness of the need for resiliency has increased across the continent in recent quarters. The subsequent effect of the war on Europe's energy complex has highlighted the dependence on continuous power sources for homes and businesses around the globe.

烏克蘭衝突期間對電力安全的擔憂持續上升，我們正在通過我們的歐洲銷售分支機構為該地區提供備用發電機。然而，長期需求趨勢不太確定，因為該地區的地緣政治和宏觀經濟狀況仍然不穩定，但最近幾個季度，整個非洲大陸的終端市場對彈性需求的認識有所提高。戰爭對歐洲能源綜合體的後續影響凸顯了全球家庭和企業對連續電源的依賴。

Looking into 2023 for our global C&I products, given the strong demand fundamentals and existing backlog, our preliminary view anticipates continued strong year-over-year growth throughout the entire year.

展望 2023 年我們的全球 C&I 產品，鑑於強勁的需求基本面和現有的積壓，我們的初步觀點預計全年將繼續強勁的同比增長。

In closing, this morning, we were disappointed that our third quarter results were below our prior expectations. But we believe we have action plans in place to address the underlying challenges in the business. New clean energy technology leadership has brought an increased emphasis on quality and innovation, and we remain confident in the long-term growth opportunity for this strategic area of our business.

最後，今天早上，我們對我們的第三季度業績低於我們之前的預期感到失望。但我們相信我們已經制定了行動計劃來應對業務中的潛在挑戰。新的清潔能源技術領導地位帶來了對質量和創新的日益重視，我們對我們業務的這一戰略領域的長期增長機會充滿信心。

Important initiatives to help ease home standby installation bottlenecks are well underway. And as the home standby market normalizes, we are confident that the new and higher baseline of end demand for the product category will become clearer. Hurricane Ian is the latest example of increasingly severe and more volatile weather patterns, and we believe the power grid's growing supply and demand imbalance is far from resolved, as we add intermittent renewable generation sources, while simultaneously pursuing the electrification of our homes, our businesses and our transportation.

幫助緩解家庭待機安裝瓶頸的重要舉措正在順利進行。隨著家庭備用市場的正常化，我們相信該產品類別的新的和更高的終端需求基線將變得更加清晰。颶風伊恩是天氣模式日益嚴重和動蕩的最新例子，我們認為電網日益嚴重的供需失衡問題遠未得到解決，因為我們增加了間歇性可再生能源，同時追求我們的家庭和企業的電氣化和我們的交通。

The secular growth themes and megatrends supporting the company's Powering a Smarter World enterprise strategy remain firmly intact, and as reliance on electricity around the world grows further, we will continue to invest in innovative products and solutions to lead the evolution to the next generation grid.

支持公司推動智慧世界企業戰略的長期增長主題和大趨勢保持不變，隨著全球對電力的依賴進一步增長，我們將繼續投資於創新產品和解決方案，以引領向下一代電網的發展。

I now want to turn the call over to York to provide further details on our third quarter 2022 results, our outlook for the year and our preliminary views on 2023. York?

我現在想將電話轉給約克，以提供有關我們 2022 年第三季度業績、我們對今年的展望以及我們對 2023 年的初步看法的更多詳細信息。約克？

Thanks, Aaron. Looking at third quarter 2022 results in more detail, net sales increased 15% to $1.09 billion during the third quarter of 2022 as compared to $943 million in the prior year third quarter. The combination of contributions from acquisitions and the unfavorable impact from foreign currency had an approximate 5% net impact on revenue growth during the quarter.

謝謝，亞倫。更詳細地看一下 2022 年第三季度的業績，與去年第三季度的 9.43 億美元相比，2022 年第三季度的淨銷售額增長了 15% 至 10.9 億美元。收購的貢獻和外彙的不利影響相結合，對本季度的收入增長產生了約 5% 的淨影響。

Briefly looking at consolidated net sales for the third quarter by product class. Residential product sales grew to $664 million as compared to $609 million in the prior year, representing a 9% increase over a strong prior year comparable. Contributions from the ecobee acquisition and the slight unfavorable impact of foreign currency contributed approximately 5% of revenue growth for the quarter.

按產品類別簡要查看第三季度的合併淨銷售額。住宅產品銷售額從去年的 6.09 億美元增長到 6.64 億美元，比去年的強勁可比增長了 9%。收購 ecobee 的貢獻和外彙的輕微不利影響為本季度的收入增長貢獻了約 5%。

Home standby generator sales made up the majority of the residential product core sales growth, increasing at a solid mid-teens rate over the prior year. This was partially offset by weakness in shipments of PWRcell energy storage systems.

家用備用發電機銷售佔住宅產品核心銷售增長的大部分，與去年相比以穩定的十幾歲左右的速度增長。這被 PWRcell 儲能係統出貨量的疲軟部分抵消。

Commercial and industrial product sales for the third quarter of 2022 increased 20% to $311 million as compared to $258 million in the prior year quarter. Contributions from acquisitions and the unfavorable impact of foreign currency provided a net headwind of more than 2% to net sales growth during the quarter.

與去年同期的 2.58 億美元相比，2022 年第三季度的商業和工業產品銷售額增長 20% 至 3.11 億美元。收購的貢獻和外彙的不利影響為本季度的淨銷售額增長帶來了超過 2% 的淨逆風。

The strong core net sales growth was broad-based across most regions, internationally and across all channels domestically with particular strength in national rental equipment, telecom, industrial distributor and energy management channels.

強勁的核心淨銷售額增長遍及大多數地區、國際和國內所有渠道，尤其是在國家租賃設備、電信、工業分銷商和能源管理渠道方面表現強勁。

Net sales for the other products and services category increased 49% to $113 million as compared to $76 million in the third quarter of 2021. Core sales growth for the category was 17% due to strength in aftermarket service parts and extended warranty revenue recognition, along with strong growth in our services offerings in certain parts of our business, both domestically and internationally.

與 2021 年第三季度的 7600 萬美元相比，其他產品和服務類別的淨銷售額增長 49% 至 1.13 億美元。由於售後服務零件和延長保修收入確認的強勁，該類別的核心銷售額增長了 17%，以及隨著我們在國內和國際業務的某些部分提供的服務強勁增長。

Gross profit margin was 33.2% compared to 35.6% in the prior year third quarter as we continue to experience modest price cost headwinds during the quarter from a margin percent standpoint. In addition, recent acquisitions and a less favorable sales mix, primarily driven by a lower proportion of home standby product sales, also negatively impacted margins in the current year quarter.

毛利率為 33.2%，而去年第三季度為 35.6%，因為從利潤率百分比的角度來看，我們在本季度繼續遇到適度的價格成本逆風。此外，最近的收購和不太有利的銷售組合，主要是由於家庭備用產品銷售比例較低，也對本年度季度的利潤率產生了負面影響。

Operating expenses increased $111 million or 68% as compared to the third quarter of 2021. This increase includes $55.3 million of pretax charges comprised of $17.9 million of bad debt expense related to a clean energy product customer that is filed for bankruptcy and a $37.3 million charge for clean energy product warranty-related matters. The remaining increase was primarily driven by higher recurring operating expenses from recent acquisitions and an increase in intangible amortization expense. To a lesser extent, higher employee costs and higher marketing spend also contributed to the increase.

與 2021 年第三季度相比，運營費用增加了 1.11 億美元或 68%。這一增加包括 5530 萬美元的稅前費用，其中包括與申請破產的清潔能源產品客戶相關的 1790 萬美元的壞賬費用和 3730 萬美元的費用清潔能源產品保修相關事宜。剩餘的增長主要是由於近期收購產生的經常性運營費用增加和無形攤銷費用增加所致。在較小程度上，更高的員工成本和更高的營銷支出也促成了這一增長。

Adjusted EBITDA, before deducting for noncontrolling interest, as defined in our earnings release, was $184 million or 16.9% of net sales in the third quarter as compared to $209 million or 22.2% of net sales in the prior year.

調整後的 EBITDA 在扣除非控制性權益之前（如我們的收益報告中所定義）為 1.84 億美元，佔第三季度淨銷售額的 16.9%，而去年同期為 2.09 億美元或淨銷售額的 22.2%。

I will now briefly discuss financial results for our 2 reporting segments. Domestic segment total sales, including intersegment sales, increased 18% to $947 million in the quarter, as compared to $802 million in the prior year with the impact of acquisitions contributing approximately 8% of the revenue growth for the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $160 million, representing a 16.9% margin as compared to $188 million in the prior year or 23.4% of net sales. The lower domestic EBITDA margin in the quarter was primarily due to continued price cost headwinds.

我現在將簡要討論我們兩個報告部門的財務結果。本季度國內部門總銷售額（包括部門間銷售額）增長 18% 至 9.47 億美元，而去年同期為 8.02 億美元，收購的影響約佔本季度收入增長的 8%。該部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.6 億美元，利潤率為 16.9%，而去年同期為 1.88 億美元，占淨銷售額的 23.4%。本季度較低的國內 EBITDA 利潤率主要是由於持續的價格成本逆風。

In addition, continued operating expense investments for future growth and the impact of acquisitions had an unfavorable effect on margins during the quarter, as operating expenses as a percentage of sales came in higher than expected on the lower shipment volumes relative to expectations.

此外，對未來增長的持續運營費用投資和收購的影響對本季度的利潤率產生了不利影響，因為相對於預期的出貨量較低，運營費用佔銷售額的百分比高於預期。

International segment total sales, including intersegment sales, increased 14% to $183 million in the quarter as compared to $160 million in the prior year quarter. Core total sales, which excludes the impact of acquisitions and currency, increased approximately 22% compared to the prior year.

國際部門總銷售額（包括部門間銷售額）在本季度增長 14% 至 1.83 億美元，而去年同期為 1.6 億美元。不包括收購和貨幣影響的核心總銷售額與去年相比增長了約 22%。

Adjusted EBITDA for the segment before deducting for noncontrolling interests was $24 million or 13.2% of net sales as compared to $21.5 million or 13.4% of net sales in the prior year. This margin performance was impacted by a higher mix of lower-margin intersegment sales, which was mostly offset by favorable operating leverage on significantly higher volumes.

在扣除非控制性權益之前，該部門的調整後 EBITDA 為 2400 萬美元或淨銷售額的 13.2%，而上一年為 2150 萬美元或淨銷售額的 13.4%。這一利潤率表現受到利潤率較低的部門間銷售的較高組合的影響，這主要被顯著增加的銷量帶來的有利經營槓桿所抵消。

Now switching back to our financial performance for the third quarter of 2022 on a consolidated basis. As disclosed in our earnings release, GAAP net income for the company in the quarter was $58 million as compared to $132 million for the third quarter of 2021. The current year net income includes the pretax charges totaling $55.3 million related to the clean energy bad debt and warranty-related matters.

現在切換回我們 2022 年第三季度的綜合財務業績。正如我們在財報中披露的那樣，該公司本季度的 GAAP 淨收入為 5800 萬美元，而 2021 年第三季度為 1.32 億美元。本年度淨收入包括與清潔能源壞賬相關的總計 5530 萬美元的稅前費用和保修相關事宜。

GAAP income taxes during the quarter -- GAAP income taxes during the current year third quarter was $11.6 million or an effective tax rate of 16.1% as compared to $32.6 million or an effective tax rate of 19.7% for the prior year. The reduction was due to multiple discrete tax items that drove the tax rate down versus prior year on a net basis.

本季度的 GAAP 所得稅——本年度第三季度的 GAAP 所得稅為 1160 萬美元，有效稅率為 16.1%，而上一年為 3260 萬美元，有效稅率為 19.7%。減少是由於多個離散的稅收項目導致稅率與上年相比在淨基礎上下降。

Diluted net income per share for the company on a GAAP basis was $0.83 in the third quarter of 2022 compared to $1.93 in the prior year. Adjusted net income for the company, as defined in our earnings release, was $112 million in the current year quarter or $1.75 per share. This compares to adjusted net income of $151 million in the prior year or $2.35 per share.

2022 年第三季度，公司按公認會計原則計算的每股攤薄淨收益為 0.83 美元，而去年同期為 1.93 美元。根據我們的收益發布中的定義，公司調整後的淨收入在本年度季度為 1.12 億美元或每股 1.75 美元。相比之下，上一年調整後的淨收入為 1.51 億美元或每股 2.35 美元。

Cash flow from operations was negative $56 million as compared to positive $74 million in the prior year third quarter. And free cash flow, as defined in our earnings release was negative $73 million as compared to positive $42 million in the same quarter last year. The decline in free cash flow versus the prior year was primarily due to lower operating earnings, increased tax payments and higher working capital levels in the current year quarter, partially offset by lower capital expenditures.

運營現金流為負 5600 萬美元，而去年第三季度為正 7400 萬美元。我們的收益發布中定義的自由現金流為負 7300 萬美元，而去年同期為正 4200 萬美元。與上年相比，自由現金流下降的主要原因是本季度營業收入下降、納稅增加和營運資本水平上升，部分被資本支出下降所抵消。

As of September 30, 2022, we have approximately $1.48 billion of liquidity, comprised of approximately $230 million of cash on hand and $1.25 billion of availability on our revolving credit facility. Also, total debt outstanding at the end of the quarter was $1.36 billion, resulting in a gross debt leverage ratio at the end of the third quarter of 1.6x on an as-reported basis.

截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日，我們擁有約 14.8 億美元的流動資金，其中包括約 2.3 億美元的手頭現金和 12.5 億美元的循環信貸額度。此外，本季度末未償債務總額為 13.6 億美元，導致第三季度末總債務槓桿率為報告基礎上的 1.6 倍。

Additionally, during the third quarter, we repurchased 536,600 shares of our common stock for $123.9 million, which exhausted our previously existing stock repurchase program. In July 2022, our Board of Directors approved a new stock repurchase program that allows for the repurchase of up to 500 million of our common stock over a 24-month period.

此外，在第三季度，我們以 1.239 億美元的價格回購了 536,600 股普通股，這用盡了我們之前現有的股票回購計劃。 2022 年 7 月，我們的董事會批准了一項新的股票回購計劃，該計劃允許在 24 個月內回購多達 5 億股我們的普通股。

With that, I will now provide further comments on our updated outlook. As previously disclosed 2 weeks ago within our pre-release, we updated our net sales growth and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for the full year 2022. In line with the pre-release, we still expect net sales in 2022 to increase between 22% to 24% as compared to the prior year on an as-reported basis, which includes an approximate 5% to 7% net impact from acquisitions and foreign currency. This revenue outlook assumes sales of residential and C&I products both increased at a similar rate in the low to mid-20% range during 2022 over the prior year.

有了這個，我現在將對我們更新的展望提供進一步的評論。正如我們兩週前在我們的預發布中披露的那樣，我們更新了我們的淨銷售額增長並調整了 2022 年全年的 EBITDA 利潤率指引。與預發布一致，我們仍然預計 2022 年的淨銷售額將增長 22% 至根據報告，與上一年相比增長 24%，其中包括來自收購和外幣的約 5% 至 7% 的淨影響。這一收入前景假設住宅和 C&I 產品的銷售額在 2022 年期間以相似的速度增長，在 2022 年的低至中 20% 範圍內比上一年增長。

Also in line with our pre-release, adjusted EBITDA margins before deducting for noncontrolling interests are still expected to be approximately 18% to 19%. This EBITDA margin expectation reflects a modest sequential improvement in gross margins in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter levels, with higher operating expenses as a percentage of sales, partially offsetting the sequential gross margin improvement.

同樣與我們的預發布一致，在扣除非控制性權益之前調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率仍預計約為 18% 至 19%。這一 EBITDA 利潤率預期反映了第四季度毛利率與第三季度相比略有連續改善，營業費用佔銷售額的百分比較高，部分抵消了毛利率的連續改善。

Now I'd like to provide some further comments regarding our initial framework for net sales growth in 2023. Summarizing Aaron's earlier remarks, our preliminary view for 2023 anticipates that the first half of the year will experience year-over-year weakness on a consolidated basis. We expect to return to solid growth in the second half of the year, resulting in overall net sales to only decline modestly for the full year 2023 as compared to 2022.

現在，我想就我們 2023 年淨銷售額增長的初步框架提供一些進一步的評論。總結 Aaron 之前的言論，我們對 2023 年的初步看法預計，今年上半年在合併後將出現同比疲軟基礎。我們預計下半年將恢復穩健增長，導致 2023 年全年的整體淨銷售額與 2022 年相比僅小幅下降。

Again, as Aaron previously discussed, home standby generator sales growth is expected to face significant headwinds in the first half of 2023. But as field inventories normalize, we anticipate strong sequential sales growth and a much more modest decline in sales growth over the prior year in the second half of 2023.

同樣，正如 Aaron 之前所討論的，家用備用發電機的銷售增長預計將在 2023 年上半年面臨重大阻力。但隨著現場庫存正常化，我們預計銷售環比增長強勁，銷售增長較上年下降更為溫和2023年下半年。

Clean energy technology is expected to experience robust sales growth for the full year as we continue to expand our presence, build out our distribution and launch new products into this market, resulting in sequentially improving results during 2023. Our preliminary view for 2023 C&I product sales growth anticipates continued strong growth throughout the year. This preliminary guidance assumes power outage activity that is in line with the long-term baseline average, and does not assume a prolonged recessionary environment that meaningfully impacts consumer spending during 2023.

隨著我們繼續擴大業務範圍、擴大分銷渠道並在該市場推出新產品，清潔能源技術有望在全年實現強勁的銷售增長，從而在 2023 年連續改善業績。我們對 2023 年 C&I 產品銷售的初步看法增長預計全年將繼續強勁增長。該初步指導假設停電活動符合長期基線平均值，並且不假設長期衰退環境不會對 2023 年的消費者支出產生有意義的影響。

Additionally, this is a preliminary early look into our 2023 forecast, and we will provide a more detailed update when we report fourth quarter results in mid-February of next year.

此外，這是對我們 2023 年預測的初步初步了解，我們將在明年 2 月中旬報告第四季度業績時提供更詳細的更新。

Shifting back to 2022, we will now provide additional guidance details to assist with modeling adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow for the full year 2022. Our GAAP effective tax rate is now expected to be approximately 24.5% for the fourth quarter of the year, resulting in a full year 2022 GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 21.5%. For full year 2022, we now expect interest expense to be approximately $53 million to $55 million, an increase from the previous guidance of $52 million to $54 million, reflecting higher than previously expected benchmark interest rates. This assumes no additional changes in outstanding debt for the remainder of the year.

回到 2022 年，我們現在將提供額外的指導細節，以幫助對 2022 年全年調整後的每股收益和自由現金流進行建模。我們的 GAAP 有效稅率現在預計在今年第四季度約為 24.5% ，導致 2022 年全年 GAAP 有效稅率約為 21.5%。對於 2022 年全年，我們現在預計利息支出約為 5,300 萬美元至 5,500 萬美元，高於之前預期的 5,200 萬美元至 5,400 萬美元，反映出高於此前預期的基準利率。這假設在今年剩餘時間內未償債務沒有額外變化。

Depreciation expense is still expected to be approximately $54 million to $56 million in 2022. GAAP intangible amortization expense in '22 is still expected to be approximately $100 million to $105 million. Stock compensation expense is still expected to be between $32 million and $34 million for the year.

到 2022 年，折舊費用預計仍約為 5400 萬美元至 5600 萬美元。22 年的 GAAP 無形攤銷費用預計仍約為 1 億美元至 1.05 億美元。今年的股票補償費用預計仍將在 3200 萬美元至 3400 萬美元之間。

Our full year weighted average diluted share count is now expected to be approximately 64.5 million shares compared to the previous guidance of 65 million to 65.5 million shares. Our capital expenditures are now projected to be approximately 2% to 2.5% of our forecasted net sales for the year compared to prior guidance of approximately 2.5% to 3% of net sales.

我們的全年加權平均攤薄股數現在預計約為 6450 萬股，而之前的指導為 6500 萬至 6550 萬股。我們的資本支出現在預計約為我們今年預測的淨銷售額的 2% 至 2.5%，而之前的指導約為淨銷售額的 2.5% 至 3%。

Free cash flow conversion is expected to be closer to 100% of adjusted net income in the fourth quarter as the investment in working capital begins to level off. Finally, this updated 2022 outlook does not reflect potential additional acquisitions or share repurchases that could drive incremental shareholder value.

隨著營運資金投資開始趨於平穩，預計第四季度自由現金流轉換將接近調整後淨收入的 100%。最後，這一更新的 2022 年展望並未反映可能推動股東價值增加的潛在額外收購或股票回購。

This concludes our prepared remarks. At this time, we'd like to open up the call for questions.

我們準備好的評論到此結束。在這個時候，我們想打開提問的電話。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Michael Halloran with Baird.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Baird 的 Michael Halloran。

So just kind of want to talk through what happened between second quarter to today is the first question. Obviously, in the second quarter, you talked about installation challenges potentially being a headwind. But I think the magnitude caught a lot of people by surprise, and how quickly that changed. And so could you maybe talk about the dynamic that got you misaligned with what was happening in the channel, is the first question?

所以只是想談談從第二季度到今天發生的事情是第一個問題。顯然，在第二季度，您談到了安裝挑戰可能是逆風。但我認為這種規模讓很多人感到意外，而且變化如此之快。那麼你能否談談讓你與頻道中發生的事情不一致的動態，是第一個問題嗎？

Yes, Mike, this is Aaron. Yes, it's a great question and one that obviously not only caught us by surprise, but even our channel partners. I think we hit kind of our peak output levels with home standby. We've been working very hard over the last couple of years to -- we've quadrupled the output. And we really -- we hit our stride as we predicted we would kind of as we exited the second quarter and began the third quarter.

是的，邁克，這是亞倫。是的，這是一個很好的問題，顯然不僅讓我們感到驚訝，甚至讓我們的渠道合作夥伴也感到驚訝。我認為我們在家庭待機時達到了峰值輸出水平。在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在非常努力地工作——我們已經將產量翻了兩番。我們真的 - 我們大步前進，正如我們預測的那樣，當我們退出第二季度並開始第三季度時。

And so we are producing at a really high rate. And we thought that was really important because we wanted to bring our lead times down, because we knew that, that was having a negative impact on close rates, it's having a negative impact on our ability to sign new channel partners. So we really -- we're working hard to do that. And so we kind of open the floodgates on shipping to get all that product out in the market.

所以我們正在以非常高的速度生產。我們認為這非常重要，因為我們希望縮短交貨時間，因為我們知道，這會對成交率產生負面影響，對我們簽署新渠道合作夥伴的能力產生負面影響。所以我們真的 - 我們正在努力做到這一點。因此，我們打開了運輸閘門，將所有產品推向市場。

And what we started to see at the end of the second quarter, and we mentioned it, as you said on the call, was that our installation, our activation rate, which is our proxy for installations, it was up year-over-year, but it wasn't increasing at the same rate commensurate with our output increase. And so we could see field inventory building. And we had been talking to our channel partners for several quarters about this coming. And we were trying to get them prepared for that, helping them hire people. We had a number of programs actually in place to get ahead of this.

我們在第二季度末開始看到，正如你在電話會議上所說，我們提到的是我們的安裝，我們的激活率，這是我們的安裝代理，它同比上升，但它並沒有以與我們的產量增長相稱的速度增長。所以我們可以看到現場庫存的建立。幾個季度以來，我們一直在與我們的渠道合作夥伴討論這個問題。我們試圖讓他們為此做好準備，幫助他們僱傭員工。我們實際上已經制定了許多計劃來領先於此。

But in the end, it's just -- that we have 8,500 channel partners, dealers and then obviously, a lot of non-dealer contractors who install these products. And it's a ton of one-off conversations, and we just weren't able to change that inflection point on the installation rate to the degree we thought we could.

但最終，我們有 8,500 個渠道合作夥伴、經銷商，當然還有很多安裝這些產品的非經銷商承包商。這是大量一次性的對話，我們只是無法將安裝率的拐點改變到我們認為可以的程度。

So the flaw in the model, the simple answer is, the flaw in the model here was that we modeled unconstrained installation bandwidth, and that actually was not how it played out. We had never had that happen before, by the way. I've seen probably 6 of these cycles in the past, and successively as we kind of hit our peak rate with new output levels, we had never seen the installation bandwidth be a barrier.

所以模型中的缺陷，簡單的答案是，這裡模型中的缺陷是我們模擬了不受約束的安裝帶寬，而實際上並不是這樣。順便說一句，我們以前從未發生過這種情況。過去我大概見過 6 次這樣的周期，並且隨著我們以新的輸出水平連續達到峰值速率，我們從未見過安裝帶寬成為障礙。

So that was the problem. And it, unfortunately, stacked up really quick when you're shipping at those rates and only installing at kind of marginally higher rates. So the field inventory started to stack up, and they physically started to run out of room, run out of credit. And so what we saw is we saw cancellations and deferrals on orders from those home standby dealers and other channel partners during the quarter, and that accelerated through the quarter here in Q3. And it became very clear very quickly. And again, that's why we did the prerelease because as soon as we put all this together, we can see what happened a couple of weeks ago. It's like, okay, this is information we want to get to folks so they understand it. And we've redoubled our efforts, tripled our efforts on what we can do to increase installation bandwidth.

所以這就是問題所在。不幸的是，當您以這些價格運送並且僅以稍微高一點的價格安裝時，它會很快堆積起來。所以現場庫存開始堆積起來，他們的身體開始用盡空間，用盡信用。因此，我們看到的是，我們在本季度看到了來自這些家庭備用經銷商和其他渠道合作夥伴的訂單取消和延期，並且在第三季度的整個季度加速。它很快變得非常清楚。再說一次，這就是我們進行預發布的原因，因為一旦我們將所有這些放在一起，我們就可以看到幾週前發生的事情。就像，好吧，這是我們想要讓人們了解的信息。我們加倍努力，增加了兩倍的努力來增加安裝帶寬。

So anyway, that's kind of answering your first question. That's the issue in a nutshell, if you will, for home standby.

所以無論如何，這有點回答你的第一個問題。簡而言之，這就是家庭待命的問題。

That's super helpful. And related, if I think about the time it's going to take to sync the channel up, I guess I'm having a hard time thinking of the idea that the underlying pieces are still pretty healthy, and you gave a lot of good metrics in the prepared remarks and in the press release around what's happening on the consultation side, the closures, et cetera, with how long it's going to take to rightsize the inventory. And maybe it's just a bandwidth conversation with where the installers are at. But I'd love to have a sense for how I can kind of take that time frame and sink it with what you're calling still pretty healthy underlying demand.

這非常有幫助。和相關的，如果我考慮同步頻道所需的時間，我想我很難想到底層部分仍然非常健康，而且你在準備好的評論和新聞稿中圍繞諮詢方面發生的事情，關閉等，以及調整庫存需要多長時間。也許這只是與安裝人員所在位置的帶寬對話。但我很想知道我如何能夠利用這個時間框架，用你所說的仍然非常健康的潛在需求來解決它。

Yes. I think probably the best way to maybe get your head around that is we believe that currently today, field inventory levels are about double where they should be. And so that's the bad news, right? That's the additional output that we put into the market ahead of the installation capacity increasing to the right levels. We do -- we are modeling that installation capacity is going to increase next year. The challenge, of course, is that just seasonally, we're coming into -- as we turn the page here and get into Q1 and Q2, we normally run into a seasonally low period of installations because parts of the country like the Midwest and the Northeast, where installations are much harder to do because of the cold weather because of winter.

是的。我認為可能讓你明白這一點的最好方法是，我們相信目前，現場庫存水平大約是應有的兩倍。所以這是個壞消息，對吧？這是我們在裝機容量增加到適當水平之前投入市場的額外產量。我們這樣做了——我們正在模擬明年安裝能力將增加。當然，挑戰在於，只是季節性地，我們正在進入——當我們在這裡翻頁並進入第一季度和第二季度時，我們通常會遇到安裝量季節性低的時期，因為該國的部分地區，如中西部和東北地區，由於冬季天氣寒冷，安裝難度要大得多。

So unfortunately, even though we're targeting the installations are going to improve year-over-year, we have this seasonal challenge we've got to deal with. It's just nature. We can't really -- that's a hard one to fix. And so it won't increase necessarily as quickly as we needed to in the first half.

所以不幸的是，即使我們的目標是安裝量將逐年改善，但我們必須應對這個季節性挑戰。這只是自然。我們真的不能——這是一個很難解決的問題。因此，它不一定會像我們上半年需要的那樣快速增長。

Now the good news is, when we pull our dealers, half of that field inventory that's out there today is spoken for, meaning it's got a customer contract against it, a customer has got a deposit on it. And again, it's indicative of the installation challenge because we're now back to what we said in the prepared remarks is mostly normal lead times.

現在好消息是，當我們拉動我們的經銷商時，今天存在的現場庫存中有一半是代言的，這意味著它有一份客戶合同，客戶已經收到了一筆押金。再一次，這表明安裝挑戰，因為我們現在回到我們在準備好的評論中所說的大部分是正常的交貨時間。

We still have backlog. We have a couple of models, we're still out there, some liquid cool products, things like that. So that's supportive of where we're going here in Q4. But what ends up happening is that we have these mostly normal lead times for us to our channel partner, but if you are a homeowner and you call and you try and get a product, you still are being quoted longer lead times because of these constraints, whether they be people constraints or permitting constraints or component constraints, gas meter upgrades, we've -- there are localized issues all over the country where some of our channel partners are bumping up against just delays. And so they're working through that. And as those ease, that will help. But we think that it's likely going to take the first half of next year to get through this, and that's going to put pressure on the incoming order rate for home standby through the first half of next year.

我們還有積壓。我們有幾個模型，我們仍然在那裡，一些液體冷卻產品，諸如此類。所以這支持了我們在第四季度的發展方向。但最終發生的情況是，對於我們的渠道合作夥伴，我們有這些大部分正常的交貨時間，但是如果您是房主並且您打電話並嘗試獲得產品，由於這些限制，您仍然被引用更長的交貨時間，無論是人員限制還是允許限製或組件限制，燃氣表升級，我們已經 - 在全國各地都存在本地化問題，我們的一些渠道合作夥伴正在遇到延遲。所以他們正在努力解決這個問題。隨著那些輕鬆，這將有所幫助。但我們認為可能要到明年上半年才能度過難關，這將對明年上半年的家庭待命訂單率造成壓力。

And so that's really the challenge. We think that, again, in our prepared remarks, we said by the second half of the year, we're back to growing again in the category and really only down modestly for the year in total for the category. So anyway, so that's -- it's -- I think when you put it all together, we feel pretty good about longer term that the end market is supportive.

所以這確實是一個挑戰。我們認為，在我們準備好的評論中，我們再次表示，到今年下半年，我們在該類別中再次恢復增長，並且在該類別中全年總體上僅略有下降。所以無論如何，這就是 - 它是 - 我認為當你把它們放在一起時，我們對終端市場的長期支持感覺很好。

That makes sense. So basically, what you're saying is relatively normal sequentials on the home standby category for the next few quarters from a couple of quarters from the run rate you're talking about in the back half of this year before there's a potential inflection as things start catching up and normalizing a little bit.

那講得通。所以基本上，你所說的是未來幾個季度的家庭備用類別相對正常的順序，從今年下半年你所說的運行率的幾個季度開始，在事情可能出現拐點之前開始趕上並正常化一點。

Right. Return to normal seasonality, return to growth in the second half. And then again, just the first half is going to be down considerably, second half will grow. Still down kind of moderately for the category, only modestly for the company overall. That's kind of our overall guide for next year, but just to clarify that.

正確的。恢復正常季節性，下半年恢復增長。再說一次，只是上半年會大幅下降，下半年會增長。該類別仍然適度下降，僅對公司整體而言適度下降。這是我們明年的總體指南，但只是為了澄清這一點。

And our next question comes from Jeff Hammond with Key.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jeff Hammond 和 Key。

Just on kind of the -- as you're thinking about the guide, I just want to kind of understand how you're thinking about like comping the backlog drawdown that you're seeing this year, and then what that would imply for kind of underlying demand for the category.

就在某種程度上——當你在考慮指南時，我只是想了解你是如何考慮的，比如計算你今年看到的積壓縮編，然後這意味著什麼該類別的潛在需求。

Yes. I mean, again, that's a big part of the headwind for the first half of next year, there is the comp. Because we're -- obviously, we were bringing that backlog down heavily in the first 2 quarters of this year. And so we'll be comping against that without having the benefit of that backlog kind of as we get into next year. So that's a big part of it.

是的。我的意思是，再次，這是明年上半年逆風的很大一部分，有競爭。因為我們 - 顯然，我們在今年前兩個季度大幅減少了積壓。因此，當我們進入明年時，我們將在沒有積壓的情況下與之抗衡。所以這是其中很大一部分。

And then Aaron's point about the home standby category being down moderately in the second half, that's because you are trying to comp like some of that backlog headwind that we're bringing down here in the back...

然後亞倫關於家庭備用類別在下半年適度下降的觀點，那是因為你正試圖像我們在後面帶來的一些積壓逆風一樣......

Moderately in total. Returning to growth in the second half, but yes, for '23.

總體適中。下半年恢復增長，但是是的，對於'23。

Yes, for the standby.

是的，用於備用。

For standby. We're talking just standby.

用於待機。我們說的只是待機。

Yes, yes. We're just talking standby. But that -- we've got the headwind on the backlog that's driving that.

是的是的。我們只是在談論待機。但這 - 我們在推動這一點的積壓工作中遇到了逆風。

That's what's driving that, exactly.

這正是驅動它的原因。

And then just what are you guys doing with your production levels as you get this reset? And just how should we think about destock of your own inventory? Looks like your own inventories are a bit elevated as well.

然後你們在重置時對你們的生產水平做了什麼？我們應該如何考慮為您自己的庫存去庫存？看起來你自己的庫存也有點高。

Yes, they are. And you saw that read through just the working capital increase in the third quarter, driving free cash flow negative for the quarter. We see that coming back around in Q4. So we basically slowed the factories down, still have some material coming at us, but that's starting to slow as well.

對，他們是。而且您看到僅通過第三季度的營運資金增加就可以看出，該季度的自由現金流為負數。我們看到這種情況會在第四季度重新出現。所以我們基本上放慢了工廠的速度，仍然有一些材料向我們供應，但這也開始放緩。

We should basically get into a better position in Q4 and then really working hard through the first half of next year to bring down those inventory levels, both raw materials and finished goods, as it relates to the home standby category in particular. It's actually kind of a dichotomy, because in our industrial business, we're constrained still in certain components and our inventory levels are low, and we're struggling to kind of feed our factories with materials there on our industrial side. And we would be able to, in fact, go even higher, faster with our industrial business if we could get more engines and breakers and other things that are in shorter supply.

我們應該在第四季度基本進入一個更好的位置，然後在明年上半年真正努力降低原材料和製成品的庫存水平，尤其是與家庭待機類別有關的庫存水平。這實際上是一種二分法，因為在我們的工業業務中，我們仍然受到某些組件的限制，我們的庫存水平很低，我們正在努力為我們的工廠提供工業方面的材料。事實上，如果我們能獲得更多的發動機和破碎機以及其他供應短缺的東西，我們就能在工業業務上走得更高、更快。

But on the home standby side, we're definitely seeing a lot of material hitting our distribution centers as we slow production down.

但在家庭備用方面，隨著生產放緩，我們肯定會看到很多材料衝擊我們的配送中心。

And our next question comes from Brian Drab with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brian Drab 和 William Blair。

Just shifting to clean energy for a minute. So I think that the energy storage business in '21 was around $220 million, $225 million. It looks like the guidance that you're giving us now for $300 million to $330 million implies that that's down something like 30% or so this year. Is that about right? And what is the overall market growing and can you clarify...

只是轉向清潔能源一分鐘。所以我認為 21 年的儲能業務約為 2.2 億美元，2.25 億美元。看起來你現在給我們的 3 億到 3.3 億美元的指導意味著今年下降了 30% 左右。這對嗎？什麼是整體市場增長，你能澄清...

Yes, market is still growing, although there's some mixed comments out there about the market growth. But yes, the loss of that major customer of ours in the second half of the year here, they really ceased operations in July. So we've got to do the hard work that, honestly, we should have been doing all along of continuing to expand our channel to more channel partners, but that hurts us definitely in the year, Brian.

是的，市場仍在增長，儘管關於市場增長的評論不一。但是，是的，我們的那個大客戶在下半年在這裡失去了，他們真的在7月份停止了運營。所以我們必須努力工作，老實說，我們應該一直做的工作是繼續將我們的渠道擴展到更多的渠道合作夥伴，但這肯定會在這一年傷害我們，Brian。

So yes, unfortunately, that's going to be down this year. Looking for that to return to growth next year, but as we kind of fill in with new customers, and we kind of reset, so '22 is going to end up being a reset year for us here on energy storage, which is disappointing, but I think -- and a rather painful learning lesson for us on just some of the trials and tribulations of that market, some of the customers and the dealer partners there, you're having to pick your partners carefully. Again, a lot of learning cycles we're going through there.

所以是的，不幸的是，今年會下降。期待明年恢復增長，但隨著我們填補新客戶，我們會重新設置，所以 22 年最終將成為我們在儲能方面重新設置的一年，這令人失望，但我認為——這對我們來說是一個相當痛苦的學習教訓，只是該市場的一些考驗和磨難，那裡的一些客戶和經銷商合作夥伴，你必須仔細選擇你的合作夥伴。同樣，我們在那裡經歷了很多學習週期。

Okay. And then for my second question, can you just clarify exactly what you're saying about 2023 one more time in terms of -- I think that you said total company in the prepared remarks, it's all about total company, and that you'd be down modestly for the full year, up sequentially first half to second half. But I'm just wondering, is home standby expected to be up year-over-year in the second half?

好的。然後對於我的第二個問題，您能否再澄清一下您所說的關於 2023 年的具體內容 - 我認為您在準備好的評論中說的是全公司，這完全是關於全公司，而且您會全年小幅下降，上半年至下半年連續上升。但我只是想知道，下半年的家庭待機預計會同比增長嗎？

Yes, this is York. So yes, so total company, to clarify, we said weakness in the first half, total company, mainly driven by the home standby discussion we just had, maybe a little bit of clean energy as we build growth there. But second half, I think important to note, total company returned to solid growth for total company in the second half. You put that all together then for full year, that would only be a modest decline for full year 2023. That's total company.

是的，這就是約克。所以是的，所以總公司，澄清一下，我們說上半年的疲軟，總公司，主要是受我們剛剛進行的家庭備用討論的推動，也許是我們在那裡建立增長時的一點清潔能源。但下半年，我認為需要注意的是，總體公司在下半年恢復了穩健增長。你把所有這些放在一起全年，這只會是 2023 年全年的小幅下降。這就是公司的總數。

So then home standby specifically, again, weakness first half, sequential growth from first half to second half and then a much more modest decline in sales growth over the prior year in the second half of the year. So maybe down a little bit, but it's much more modest decline relative to the first half for home standby.

因此，特別是家庭待機，再次是上半年疲軟，從上半年到下半年的連續增長，然後在下半年的銷售增長比上一年的下降幅度要小得多。所以可能會下降一點，但相對於上半年的家庭待機下降幅度要小得多。

Our next question comes from Mark Strouse with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mark Strouse。

York, curious if you can just talk about margins through the first half of next year. Just kind of the lower factory absorption with HSB, the lower mix of HSB and then kind of offsetting that somewhat easing of some of the supply chain issues that you've had. Is that how we should think about margins going forward?

約克，很好奇你是否可以談論明年上半年的利潤率。只是 HSB 的工廠吸收率較低，HSB 的混合較低，然後在某種程度上抵消了您遇到的一些供應鏈問題的緩解。這就是我們應該如何看待未來利潤的方式嗎？

Yes. No, I think Aaron mentioned a return to seasonality for the home standby business, meaning Q1 is usually the lowest point in the curve once you catch backlog, then you return to normal seasonality, Q1 is the lowest point. So you would expect, just from a mix standpoint, that sequentially from Q4 2022 to Q1 2023, that gross margin should decline because -- mainly because of that mix element. But, I mean, recall we were facing some pretty heavy inflationary pressures in Q1 of 2022, so I would expect just from a price cost standpoint, we're going to see some nice price cost benefit there.

是的。不，我認為 Aaron 提到了家庭備用業務的季節性回歸，這意味著一旦你發現積壓，Q1 通常是曲線的最低點，然後你會恢復正常的季節性，Q1 是最低點。因此，從混合的角度來看，你會預期，從 2022 年第四季度到 2023 年第一季度，毛利率應該會下降，因為——主要是因為這種混合因素。但是，我的意思是，回想一下，我們在 2022 年第一季度面臨著一些相當沉重的通脹壓力，所以我預計僅從價格成本的角度來看，我們將在那裡看到一些不錯的價格成本效益。

But yes, we're still putting our models together on how that's going to look, but I would expect just sequentially that given the mix, the mix changes going into the first half of next year, you'd see maybe a slight decline in gross margins relative to the run rate.

但是，是的，我們仍在將我們的模型放在一起，看看它的外觀，但我預計只是順序考慮到混合，混合變化進入明年上半年，你會看到可能會略有下降毛利率相對於運行率。

Okay. And then just to clarify on the Clean Power business, is most of the reduction in the revenue outlook driven by needing to backfill for the customer that has gone bankrupt? Or is there a broader issue with the actual product itself that there's some actual reconfiguring of the solution?

好的。然後只是澄清一下清潔能源業務，收入前景的大部分減少是否是由於需要為已經破產的客戶回填而導致的？或者實際產品本身是否存在更廣泛的問題，即對解決方案進行了一些實際的重新配置？

Yes, the majority of the market is related to the loss of the customer. It was a really important customer for us. And the diversification of our customer base is going to be the primary focus here going forward. And obviously, we've got to restore trust, too, right, in the market to some degree. There's probably a spillover effect there to a bit.

是的，大部分市場都與客戶的流失有關。這對我們來說是一個非常重要的客戶。我們客戶群的多樣化將成為未來的主要重點。顯然，我們也必須在某種程度上恢復對市場的信任。那裡可能有一點溢出效應。

But I will say this, and like I said, we've got a lot to learn in this market. It's a painful learning lesson. But in speaking with a lot of the kind of national companies that are well established, the national solar sales and installation companies, almost every OEM has had challenges over the course of the solar kind of markets existence and storage being the new component here.

但我會這麼說，就像我說的，我們在這個市場上有很多東西要學。這是一個痛苦的學習教訓。但在與許多成熟的國家公司、國家太陽能銷售和安裝公司交談時，幾乎每個 OEM 在太陽能類市場存在和存儲成為這裡的新組件的過程中都遇到了挑戰。

So again, I'm not trying to indicate that people should expect that, but it's a pretty new market. I mean, penetration rates are very low on these products. The environment, being rooftop mounted, electronics is a severe environment. The warranty periods are very long, 25-year warranty periods for the rooftop mountain components, 10 years on the batteries. So you've got a pretty -- there's a pretty high bar there quality-wise. And a lot of companies have unfortunately struggled with that.

再說一次，我並不是要表明人們應該期待這一點，但這是一個相當新的市場。我的意思是，這些產品的滲透率非常低。安裝在屋頂的電子環境是一個惡劣的環境。保修期很長，屋頂山地組件保修期為25年，電池保修期為10年。所以你有一個漂亮的 - 在質量方面有一個相當高的標準。不幸的是，許多公司都在為此苦苦掙扎。

Now I think we feel like we -- well, a couple of things. One, we're very committed to this. We think it's the future. We think it's an important part of our strategy going forward. I think it represents some great opportunities for Generac in terms of what can fit with our brand, our distribution and our expertise in some of these areas.

現在我認為我們覺得我們 - 嗯，有幾件事。一，我們非常致力於這一點。我們認為這是未來。我們認為這是我們未來戰略的重要組成部分。我認為它代表了 Generac 的一些巨大機會，這些機會與我們的品牌、我們的分銷和我們在其中一些領域的專業知識相適應。

So we're committed to it. We've got a great balance sheet to be able to finance this. The investment needed, obviously, is going to be greater than we had originally thought. You can't just take a start-up technology and try to scale it. That's clear based on our experiences here. So we're going to have to do a lot more work around that. We're going to have to put more talent in the teams. We've started to do that. We mentioned that in some of our prepared remarks this morning, and we're going to continue to do that. We think that this is, again, it's an important part of the future. We're committed to it, and we are going to be a major player in it longer term. We're going to take our lumps here and the humility that comes with that.

所以我們致力於它。我們有一個很好的資產負債表可以為此提供資金。顯然，所需的投資將比我們最初想像的要大。您不能只採用一項初創技術並嘗試對其進行擴展。根據我們在這裡的經驗，這一點很清楚。所以我們將不得不做更多的工作來解決這個問題。我們將不得不在團隊中投入更多的人才。我們已經開始這樣做了。我們在今天早上準備好的一些發言中提到了這一點，我們將繼續這樣做。我們認為，這又是未來的重要組成部分。我們致力於它，我們將成為它長期的主要參與者。我們將在這裡接受我們的腫塊以及隨之而來的謙遜。

But in the end, I believe that we will have a lot of great success in this longer term.

但最終，我相信我們會在這個長期內取得巨大的成功。

And our next question comes from Joseph Osha with Guggenheim Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自古根海姆合夥人的約瑟夫·奧沙。

I wanted to spend a bit more time on the clean energy business. We've talked a lot about storage, which is great. Ecobee is a good-sized business. So I'm wondering as you look into the next year; obviously, you don't want to get too detailed, but maybe if you could give us a little bit of a sense as to the -- roughly what the breakdown of that business might look like.

我想在清潔能源業務上多花點時間。我們已經討論了很多關於存儲的問題，這很棒。 Ecobee 是一家規模很大的企業。因此，當您展望明年時，我想知道；顯然，你不想太詳細，但也許你能給我們一點感覺 - 大致上該業務的崩潰可能是什麼樣子。

And on a related note, now that you've got the safety couple of products, we talked about this before, given some of the challenges that you've talked about with some of the other stuff, could we see you perhaps pivot more to selling that AC couple product alongside other people's inverters? So those are my 2 questions.

在相關的說明中，既然您已經獲得了安全產品，我們之前已經討論過這個問題，考慮到您在其他一些東西上談到的一些挑戰，我們是否可以看到您可能更多地轉向與其他人的逆變器一起銷售交流耦合產品？所以這是我的兩個問題。

Yes. Joe, great questions. Just let me touch on the ecobee piece first, and then I'll get to the AC coupled solution. So on ecobee, there -- it's a great company, really well run. They've really struggled this year with component availability in the first half of the year. So they've under-delivered a bit to our expectations and their own expectations just around that.

是的。喬，好問題。讓我先談談 ecobee 部分，然後再談交流耦合解決方案。所以在ecobee，那裡——這是一家很棒的公司，經營得非常好。今年上半年，他們在組件可用性方面確實遇到了困難。因此，他們對我們的期望和他們自己的期望有所欠缺。

But things have really picked up here as they exited the third quarter. They're looking at fourth quarter being their highest quarter ever as a company and looking at big things. I think a lot of that, you can probably tie back to higher energy prices, right? Homeowners, I think, are looking for solutions to mitigate those higher energy prices, and smart thermostat is kind of a really cost-effective way to go after that. The paybacks are really strong, and you buy one of these products, inside of a year, you can pay that back. And that's even -- not even assuming the opportunity to connect that thermostat to a grid services type of program, like a demand response program, which can enhance the payback even more.

但是當他們退出第三季度時，這裡的情況確實有所好轉。他們將第四季度視為公司有史以來最高的季度，並著眼於大事。我想很多，你可能可以與更高的能源價格掛鉤，對吧？我認為，房主正在尋找降低能源價格上漲的解決方案，而智能恆溫器是一種真正具有成本效益的解決方案。回報非常豐厚，您購買其中一種產品，一年之內就可以償還。這甚至是——甚至沒有假設有機會將恆溫器連接到電網服務類型的程序，比如需求響應程序，這可以進一步提高回報。

So really excited about that business. I think when we announced it, it's something like $125 million. It's grown nicely this year, and will continue to grow. And we're not going to break down the pieces because we don't want to get into doing that every quarter here going forward. But it's a great business, well run and a lot of upside there.

對這項業務感到非常興奮。我認為當我們宣布它時，它大約是 1.25 億美元。今年長得很好，而且還會繼續增長。而且我們不會分解碎片，因為我們不想在未來的每個季度都這樣做。但這是一項偉大的業務，經營良好，而且有很多好處。

And I think one of the bigger opportunities within that is just the team that they have, the expertise they have is going to be central to this single pane of glass initiative that we see as sitting at the heart of the smart home energy system that we've talked about, connecting whether it be generators or PV microinverter or storage devices or smart thermostats or water heater disconnect switches, load management, ultimately EV charging, things like that. We think all of that...

我認為其中一個更大的機會就是他們擁有的團隊，他們擁有的專業知識將成為我們認為位於智能家居能源系統核心的單一玻璃計劃的核心'已經談到，無論是發電機、光伏微型逆變器、存儲設備、智能恆溫器或熱水器斷開開關、負載管理，最終還是電動汽車充電，諸如此類。我們認為這一切...

I did just hear you say $125 million for this year, right?

我剛剛聽到你說今年 1.25 億美元，對吧？

No, that was what we said when we announced the deal back in December. That was their run rate.

不，這就是我們在 12 月宣布交易時所說的。那是他們的運行速度。

Okay. All right.

好的。好的。

They've grown nicely.

他們長得很好。

Yes, they've grown nicely since then. And then on the AC coupled -- the AC coupling that is definitely a focal area. And one of the things that we've been pushing to get into the market, the microinverter -- or excuse me, the PV, the PWRcell with a firmware update can accept power from third-party AC -- our third-party inverters now. So we feel really good about that, and that's going to be a focus area for our commercial teams as we go forward.

是的，他們從那時起就長得很好。然後是交流耦合——交流耦合絕對是一個重點領域。我們一直在推動進入市場的其中一件事情是微型逆變器——或者對不起，光伏，帶有固件更新的 PWRcell 可以接受來自第三方交流電的電力——我們現在的第三方逆變器.所以我們對此感覺非常好，這將成為我們商業團隊前進的重點領域。

So looking forward to that getting some traction in the marketplace, and we think that we'll see success of that.

所以期待它在市場上獲得一些牽引力，我們認為我們會看到它的成功。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jerry Revich。

Aaron, I wonder if you could talk about the production rate for the standby business. In the fourth quarter, normal seasonality. I think installs tend to be up low double digits. Can you just comment on -- a normalized run rate where that business can be up sequentially in your term based on the visibility you have as of today?

Aaron，不知道您能否談談備用業務的生產率。第四季度，季節性正常。我認為安裝量往往會達到兩位數。您能否評論一下——根據您今天的可見度，該業務可以在您的任期內按順序上升的標準化運行率？

Well, production rates won't be. Because we're bringing those down because of the field inventory issue, and we've got plenty of inventory as well. So that -- if the question is around production rates, we won't be up in the fourth quarter. We'll be lower. So we expect that, and that's built into our guide today.

嗯，生產率不會。因為由於現場庫存問題，我們正在降低這些庫存，而且我們也有大量庫存。所以 - 如果問題是關於生產率，我們不會在第四季度上升。我們會更低。因此，我們期望這一點，並且這已包含在我們今天的指南中。

But again, installation capacity, that normally, seasonally does peak in the fourth quarter. And we continue to see -- again, we added 300 new dealers in the quarter alone, which is helpful for that. We are pacing well, again, to add more dealers here in the fourth quarter, and we need to be hitting our peak rates for installation by the end of the year, but that's all contemplated in the guidance. I don't know if I'm answering your question, Jerry or not, but...

但同樣，安裝容量通常會在第四季度達到季節性峰值。我們繼續看到 - 僅在本季度我們就增加了 300 家新經銷商，這對此很有幫助。再次，我們的步伐很好，在第四季度在這裡增加了更多的經銷商，我們需要在年底之前達到我們的最高安裝率，但這一切都在指導中進行了考慮。我不知道我是否在回答你的問題，傑瑞，但是...

Yes. And earlier, you mentioned production would be down as normal seasonality in the first quarter as well. And so I'm just trying to understand, right, after every major outage event, there is a new and higher baseline, but that baseline is obviously down from the peak. And I'm just wondering, are we going to be running at that baseline based on the order rates that you see today without making any assumptions on installation capacity as we head into, call it, $400 million standby revenue quarter in the first quarter? Does that match the incoming order rate? Or is there a risk of additional step down?

是的。早些時候，您提到第一季度的產量也會按照正常的季節性下降。所以我只是想了解，對，在每次重大中斷事件之後，都會有一個新的更高的基線，但該基線顯然低於峰值。我只是想知道，當我們進入第一季度的 4 億美元備用收入季度時，我們是否會根據您今天看到的訂單率在不對安裝能力做任何假設的情況下以該基準運行？這是否與傳入的訂單率相匹配？還是有進一步降級的風險？

No, no, no. So what we've said is that the order rate is going to continue to -- we're going to have headwinds there as they work their field inventory down. So they've got -- again, field inventory, which is about double where we should be at this time of the year, and "normal" in terms of days of field inventory is about double. But about half of that -- so really the problem, right, the doubling is already sold. So they just have to get it installed.

不不不。所以我們所說的是，訂單率將繼續上升——當他們減少現場庫存時，我們將在那裡遇到阻力。所以他們有 - 再次，現場庫存，大約是我們一年中這個時候應該達到的兩倍，就現場庫存天數而言，“正常”大約是兩倍。但其中大約一半——所以問題確實存在，對，翻倍已經售出。所以他們只需要安裝它。

So because of that, we're not -- the order rate is going to be artificially depressed until we get through that.

所以正因為如此，我們不會——在我們解決這個問題之前，訂單率會被人為地壓低。

I guess, the hurricane just increased the backlog of our dealers, basically that will...

我猜，颶風只是增加了我們經銷商的積壓，基本上那將......

Yes, effectively. Right. Exactly. And could accelerate some of the drawdown of field inventory in the Florida regions, in particular, where Ian impacted. But no, we think that the order rates that we're seeing today, that we'll continue to see through the end of this year and in the first half of next year are artificially low as we rightsize that field inventory.

是的，有效。正確的。確切地。並且可能會加速佛羅里達地區的一些實地庫存減少，特別是伊恩影響的地區。但是不，我們認為我們今天看到的訂單率，我們將繼續看到今年年底和明年上半年的訂單率是人為的低，因為我們調整了現場庫存。

And remember, we have some backlog in the fourth quarter here that were satisfying as well.

請記住，我們在第四季度也有一些令人滿意的積壓工作。

Exactly. That's a good point.

確切地。那是個很好的觀點。

Our next question comes from Maheep Mandloi with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Maheep Mandloi。

Any enough guidance on gross margins for the C&I -- for the HSB projects in Q4 in the first half. But maybe if you could just opine on OpEx in Q4 and the first half given all the data points you're seeing on channel inventory and in-house consolidations, should we expect any changes over there? And I just have a follow-up on -- that should go.

對 C&I 毛利率的任何足夠指導——對於上半年第四季度的 HSB 項目。但是，鑑於您在渠道庫存和內部整合上看到的所有數據點，如果您可以在第四季度和上半年就運營支出發表意見，我們是否應該期待那裡有任何變化？我只是有一個跟進 - 那應該去。

This is York. OpEx, I think, I alluded to it, OpEx may tweak up a little bit here in the fourth quarter as a percentage of sales relative to Q3. There's actually just some seasonality on some spend in Q4, some accrual reversals in Q3 that won't repeat. So just a modest increase in OpEx sequentially, both dollars and as a percentage of sales, we're modeling in our guidance.

這是約克。 OpEx，我認為，我提到過，OpEx 可能會在第四季度作為銷售額相對於第三季度的百分比有所調整。實際上，第四季度的一些支出存在一定的季節性，第三季度的一些應計逆轉不會重複。因此，我們在我們的指導中模擬了 OpEx 的連續小幅增長，無論是美元還是銷售額的百分比。

And any guidance on how should we think about it in 2023?

以及關於我們在 2023 年應該如何考慮它的任何指導？

No. I mean, we're still -- we're just -- we gave the framework for the top line. We're still working on the framework for gross margins and OpEx. So I think we're going to hold off on discussions on the margin side for next year until next quarter.

不，我的意思是，我們仍然 - 我們只是 - 我們為頂線提供了框架。我們仍在研究毛利率和運營支出的框架。所以我認為我們將把明年的邊際討論推遲到下個季度。

Our next question comes from Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Kashy Harrison 和 Piper Sandler。

So just the first one for me. So the C&I and other segments, both quite strong. Can you maybe just dig into some detail on the strength in both of those segments in Q3? And then maybe speak to the specific indicators you're seeing right now that give you confidence of a continuation of strong growth entering calendar '23 so early? And I have a follow-up.

所以對我來說只是第一個。因此，C&I 和其他細分市場都非常強大。您能否詳細了解第三季度這兩個細分市場的實力？然後也許談談你現在看到的具體指標，這些指標讓你有信心這麼早進入 23 年日曆繼續強勁增長？我有一個後續行動。

Yes. Kashy, really, the C&I business has been ripping along here for a number of quarters and really hitting its stride. We're taking share in the market. We're seeing in our industrial distribution channel. Everything was up basically in C&I. So our telecom vertical, that is a really important vertical for the company was up. Our mobile business was up as the national rental accounts continue to refleet and top off their fleets; our business internationally, which is mostly C&I, was also up very nicely.

是的。 Kashy，真的，C&I 業務已經在這裡發展了幾個季度，並且真正取得了進展。我們正在搶占市場份額。我們在我們的工業分銷渠道中看到了。 C&I 中的一切基本上都已經好了。所以我們的電信垂直行業，這對公司來說是一個非常重要的垂直行業。我們的移動業務上升，因為全國租賃賬戶繼續反映並充實他們的車隊；我們的國際業務（主要是 C&I）也發展得非常好。

Again, just a lot of the same opportunities there. Probably 1 area that I would call out that was up even more so than in past and I think we categorized it in the prepared remarks as early inning, was this kind of -- we refer to it as beyond standby applications. So mainly natural gas generators, large C&I natural gas generators that would otherwise have normally been sold into emergency backup-type of applications are being sold into applications where they're still used as emergency backup power, but they can also be called upon to support the grid during times of significant stress. So heat waves, outages, things like that.

同樣，那裡有很多相同的機會。可能我要指出的 1 個領域比過去上升得更多，我認為我們在準備好的評論中將其歸類為早局，是這種 - 我們將其稱為超出待機應用程序。因此，主要是天然氣發電機，大型工商業天然氣發電機通常會被出售給緊急備用類型的應用程序，現在它們被出售給仍然用作緊急備用電源的應用程序，但它們也可以被要求支持在重大壓力時期的電網。所以熱浪，停電，諸如此類的事情。

So think micro grids or kind of energy-as-a-service types of programs, demand programs where the generator can be switched on remotely by a grid operator or a utility, oftentimes connected through our grid services software platform, Concerto, and we're seeing that market was up really large in the quarter for us. Now it's still pretty small in totality, but it's growing very quickly. And the quality conversations we're having with people on projects, potential projects in the future, the pipeline here for that business looks really good.

因此，想想微電網或某種能源即服務類型的程序、需求程序，其中發電機可以由電網運營商或公用事業公司遠程打開，通常通過我們的電網服務軟件平台 Concerto 和我們進行連接。重新看到市場在本季度對我們來說真的很大。現在它的總量仍然很小，但它的增長速度非常快。我們與人們就項目、未來的潛在項目進行高質量的對話，該業務的管道看起來非常好。

So much so that we're oriented around adding capacity in our C&I factories to accommodate that growth. And so additional test capacity, additional manufacturing capacity, additional sheet metal fabrication capacity, we're making investments there so that we can be ready for that business as it grows because we think it's a fundamental part of the mega trend that we've identified of kind of the grid instability issues that are coming from the rapid decarbonization of utility-scale sources and the -- on the demand side, the electrification of everything, inclusive of transportation.

如此之多，以至於我們專注於增加我們的 C&I 工廠的產能以適應這種增長。因此，額外的測試能力、額外的製造能力、額外的鈑金製造能力，我們正在那裡進行投資，以便我們可以為該業務的發展做好準備，因為我們認為這是我們已經確定的大趨勢的基本組成部分來自公用事業規模資源的快速脫碳以及 - 在需求方面，包括交通在內的一切電氣化的電網不穩定問題。

This supply-demand imbalance, many utilities and grid operators have really struggled here and had to scramble over the summer in particular. Now they were able to avoid any major outages, which was pretty remarkable. But in the end, the reserve margins, that's really kind of what it gets down to is the reserve margins is the excess capacity or sources that they have over demand. And those reserve margins have gotten compressed dramatically in certain markets out West, even here in the Midwest, where the reserve margins are down to kind of critical levels, where if you get a spike in demand or you get some kind of interruption in supply, a major plant goes offline or there's some other disruption, can cause significant challenges.

這種供需失衡，許多公用事業和電網運營商在這裡真的很掙扎，尤其是在夏天不得不爭搶。現在他們能夠避免任何重大中斷，這非常了不起。但歸根結底，儲備邊際實際上歸結為儲備邊際是產能過剩或資源過剩。在西部的某些市場，甚至在中西部，這些儲備利潤率已被大幅壓縮，那裡的儲備利潤率已降至臨界水平，如果需求激增或供應出現某種中斷，大型工廠下線或出現其他一些中斷，可能會帶來重大挑戰。

And this is really at the heart of what happened in February of last year in Texas. The cold snap that happened there has exacerbated the supply-demand challenges that were underlying what was going on in the ERCOT region or the ERCOT market. And so the opportunity to use generators, fossil fuel generators, but natural gas generators, which burn much cleaner, obviously, than diesel generators, has really come into focus as a potential opportunity to use these assets for the purposes of grid support.

這確實是去年 2 月在德克薩斯州發生的事情的核心。那裡發生的寒流加劇了 ERCOT 地區或 ERCOT 市場所面臨的供需挑戰。因此，使用發電機、化石燃料發電機和天然氣發電機的機會，顯然比柴油發電機燃燒得更清潔，作為將這些資產用於電網支持的潛在機會，已經真正成為焦點。

So that was kind of what happened in C&I in a nutshell. As you mentioned, the other category was also up nicely. That encompasses some of our monitoring businesses, encompasses some other areas of the business that have been growing very nicely as well. So between those 2 segments, or not segments, but product classifications, those we saw really nice growth in the third quarter.

簡而言之，這就是在 C&I 中發生的事情。正如你所提到的，另一個類別也很好。這包括我們的一些監控業務，也包括其他一些也發展得非常好的業務領域。因此，在這兩個細分市場之間，或者不是細分市場，而是產品分類，我們在第三季度看到了非常不錯的增長。

And just the indicators you're seeing that give you the confidence for '23 so early on?

只是你看到的指標讓你這麼早就對 23 年充滿信心嗎？

Yes. So the C&I business is a backlog business. I mean, that always has been a backlog business. So we look at that, you've got lead times on products there that, in some cases, go out 26, 36 weeks depending on the size of the product. It's custom built, and it always has been this way. This is not the new kernel in the story over the last 2 years is the fact that home standby, which has never been a backlog business, became a backlog business. But the C&I business has always been backlog, provides great visibility for us. So we feel very good about that.

是的。因此，C&I 業務是一項積壓業務。我的意思是，這一直是一個積壓的業務。所以我們看一下，那裡的產品有交貨時間，在某些情況下，根據產品的大小，需要 26 到 36 週。它是定制的，而且一直都是這樣。這不是過去 2 年故事中的新內核，事實上，從未成為積壓業務的家庭待機變成了積壓業務。但C&I業務一直積壓，為我們提供了很大的知名度。所以我們對此感覺很好。

You're also seeing kind of some of the public statements, like if you look at the national rental account customers that we sell to, they're indicating that they believe their CapEx budgets and CapEx spends are going to continue to grow into 2023 as, again, some of these mega trends around the infrastructure investments that need to be made around the country. We had the investment, the Infrastructure Act that did get passed earlier this year. There's a lot of spending that's going to come through for that, for roads and bridges and airports and ports and all those types of massive infrastructure areas, our rental customers are going to serve that.

您還會看到一些公開聲明，例如，如果您查看我們出售給的全國租賃賬戶客戶，他們表示他們相信他們的資本支出預算和資本支出將繼續增長到 2023 年，因為再次，圍繞需要在全國范圍內進行的基礎設施投資的一些大趨勢。我們有投資，即今年早些時候通過的基礎設施法案。道路、橋樑、機場和港口以及所有這些類型的大型基礎設施領域將為此付出大量支出，我們的租賃客戶將為此提供服務。

The telecom business continues to -- our telecom customers continue to tell us that their midstream and the build-out of their -- not only hardening their existing networks, but the build-out of their fifth generation or 5G networks. So that feels really good. And then, again, the quality of the pipeline, as I said, around some of these newer things like the beyond standby opportunities, the microgrid opportunities in C&I, we think that there's -- those have a lot of legs yet going into 2023.

電信業務繼續——我們的電信客戶繼續告訴我們，他們的中游和擴建——不僅加強了他們現有的網絡，而且加強了他們的第五代或 5G 網絡。所以感覺真的很好。然後，正如我所說，管道的質量，圍繞一些新的東西，比如超越待機的機會，C&I 中的微電網機會，我們認為有 - 到 2023 年還有很多腿。

Yes, the fact that book-to-bill remains strong is promising for next year.

是的，訂單到賬單仍然強勁的事實在明年很有希望。

And our next question comes from Praneeth Satish from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Praneeth Satish。

I guess if we could just focus only on the second half of '23 for a second. You mentioned that HSB could be down, but I would have thought by then that the field inventory and the installation issues would have been resolved or normalized. So I'm just wondering what's kind of driving that view for HSB in the second half of '23, given that demand is so strong? And is there a scenario where it could be up?

我想如果我們可以只關注 23 年的後半段一秒鐘。您提到 HSB 可能會關閉，但我會認為到那時現場庫存和安裝問題將得到解決或正常化。所以我只是想知道，鑑於需求如此強勁，是什麼推動了 HSB 在 23 年下半年的這種看法？有沒有可能出現的情況？

Yes. No, I think we alluded to it before that. I mean, there is some backlog that were satisfying here in the second half of 2022 that won't repeat. So there's a little bit of a, I guess, year-over-year headwind when you're looking at '23 versus '22.

是的。不，我想我們在那之前提到過。我的意思是，有一些在 2022 年下半年令人滿意的積壓工作不會重複。因此，當您查看 '23 與 '22 時，我猜想，與去年同期相比，會有一點逆風。

The guide also doesn't contemplate any major outages.

該指南也沒有考慮任何重大中斷。

Yes, that would be upside. So if you're looking for upside, where could we grow...

是的，那將是有利的。因此，如果您正在尋找上漲空間，我們可以在哪裡發展...

We did have some outages this year.

今年我們確實發生了一些中斷。

Yes, things happen. Mother nature happens. So that would definitely be a scenario where things could grow. But that's an inherent -- the backlog situation here -- resolving that backlog here in the second half of '22 is an inherent headwind for the second half of '23. But I think sequentially, as we get through these field inventory challenges here in the first half, you definitely would see growth sequentially from first half to second half, at least in terms of how we're seeing it in our framework here for 2023.

是的，事情發生了。大自然發生了。所以這肯定是一個事情可以發展的場景。但這是固有的——這裡的積壓情況——在 22 年下半年解決這裡的積壓問題是 23 年下半年的固有逆風。但我認為，隨著我們在上半年克服這些現場庫存挑戰，你肯定會看到從上半年到下半年的連續增長，至少就我們在 2023 年的框架中如何看待它而言。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just switching gears on PWRcell. You mentioned that a certain component needed to be upgraded, and so you're enlisting kind of third-party installers for repairs. Can you elaborate on what that component is? And then how is that component been fixed in new batteries that are being produced?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後只是在 PWRcell 上切換齒輪。您提到某個組件需要升級，因此您正在尋求第三方安裝程序進行維修。你能詳細說明那個組件是什麼嗎？那麼該組件是如何固定在正在生產的新電池中的呢？

Yes. We have an upgrade path on that component. It's a rooftop mounted shutoff device, and that device is -- the previous generation of that device, has a higher failure rate than what we'd like to see. So we're proactively replacing those devices for customers, so they don't see an interruption of the production of their systems. But everything is -- we've got path forward and have had a path forward here for some time. We just have to get the upgrades complete.

是的。我們對該組件有升級路徑。這是一個安裝在屋頂上的關閉裝置，而且該裝置是——該裝置的上一代，其故障率比我們希望看到的要高。因此，我們正在主動為客戶更換這些設備，這樣他們就不會看到系統生產中斷。但一切都是——我們已經有了前進的道路，並且已經有一段時間了。我們只需要完成升級即可。

And so to speed that up, we brought in a bunch of third-party service companies that are going to help us do that. We were relying on some of our channel partners, but with the loss of that largest channel partner became obvious that we needed to enlist the help of others, and that's why the third-party folks are going to be in there. And that upgrade, the total effort there is what's reflected in that additional warranty reserve charge that we took here in the quarter.

因此，為了加快速度，我們引入了一堆第三方服務公司來幫助我們做到這一點。我們依賴我們的一些渠道合作夥伴，但隨著最大渠道合作夥伴的流失，我們顯然需要尋求其他人的幫助，這就是為什麼第三方人員會參與其中的原因。那次升級，總的努力反映在我們在本季度收取的額外保修準備金中。

Our next question comes from Donovan Schafer from Northland Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northland Capital Markets 的 Donovan Schafer。

So on the home standby side, I was just curious, is there any kind of a pattern in the lower orders from the channel partners in terms of -- is it more concentrated on the side of big-box retailers like Home Depot and Lowe's? Or maybe regional installers or even potentially kind of the longer tail smaller installers? I think the smaller installers tend to be limited, maybe more on warehouse space and access or willingness to use credit. So I'm just curious if it kind of is disproportionately in any one of those areas. And then I have a follow-up.

所以在家庭備用方面，我只是好奇，渠道合作夥伴的訂單較低是否有某種模式——是否更集中在像 Home Depot 和 Lowe's 這樣的大型零售商方面？或者可能是區域安裝程序，甚至可能是長尾較小的安裝程序？我認為較小的安裝者往往受到限制，可能更多的是倉庫空間和訪問或使用信貸的意願。所以我只是好奇它是否在這些領域中的任何一個不成比例。然後我有一個跟進。

Not dramatically so, Donovan. I mean, it's pretty much fits the historical -- in terms of just the channel, the mix, if you will, the channel mix within home standby hasn't changed dramatically. I mean, we do have some of this "stocking channels" right? Like if you look at a retailer or you look at a wholesaler for us, those are traditionally stocking channels where a nondealer contractor comes in or a homeowner comes in and buys one of the products out of stock. Whereas our dealers, they generally only buy from us when they have a contract signed by a homeowner because they -- and that's nothing's changed with that. That's kind of the way the business has pace.

沒有戲劇性地如此，多諾萬。我的意思是，它非常符合歷史——就頻道、組合而言，如果你願意的話，家庭待機中的頻道組合併沒有發生巨大變化。我的意思是，我們確實有一些“備貨渠道”，對嗎？就像您查看零售商或為我們查看批發商一樣，這些都是傳統的庫存渠道，非經銷商承包商進入或房主進入併購買缺貨的產品之一。而我們的經銷商，他們通常只有在與房主簽訂合同時才從我們這裡購買，因為他們 - 這並沒有改變。這就是業務發展的一種方式。

So I think to answer your question, there's nothing dramatically different about the mix channel-to-channel going on there.

所以我想回答你的問題，那裡的混合通道到通道沒有什麼顯著不同。

Okay. And then as my next -- my follow-up question is just focusing on what's going on in Europe, because you guys -- in commercial and industrial, you really are kind of a global business and you've got a lot in Europe and India, other parts of Southeast Asia, there's kind of just so much. But when I look at what's going on in Europe, it feels like there are a lot of puts and takes that could be kind of both tailwinds and headwinds because you've got the energy crisis and although there is instability around there, but then simultaneously, you're also going to have people saying, this is why we shouldn't be using natural gas. And so there might be resistance against natural gas infrastructure and installing more generator sets to rely on that, maybe even if there's any diesel that might be seen as much more of like a short-term thing, and so they don't want to invest the CapEx for a longer-term back up.

好的。然後作為我的下一個 - 我的後續問題只是關注歐洲正在發生的事情，因為你們 - 在商業和工業領域，你們確實是一家全球企業，你們在歐洲有很多印度，東南亞其他地區，有這麼多。但是當我看到歐洲正在發生的事情時，感覺有很多看跌期權，這可能是順風和逆風，因為你遇到了能源危機，儘管那裡存在不穩定，但同時，你也會有人說，這就是我們不應該使用天然氣的原因。因此，天然氣基礎設施可能會受到抵制，並安裝更多的發電機組來依賴它，即使有任何柴油可能被視為更像是一種短期的東西，所以他們不想投資長期備份的資本支出。

So it just seems like there's a lot of potential puts and takes there and the sort of differences of Eastern Europe versus Western Europe. So could you just go under a little bit more detail on like what exactly you're seeing specifically in Europe and how that's kind of unfolding for your businesses?

所以看起來有很多潛在的看跌期權和東歐與西歐的差異。那麼，您能否詳細了解一下您在歐洲所看到的具體情況以及這對您的業務有何影響？

Yes. It's a good question. I mean, Europe has and has always been a mostly diesel C&I generator market. So that's just to level set. We have seen growth in natural gas gen sets in not only the European market, but also India. Here, recently coming off a base of almost nothing. There's there's nothing there. And I think on the margins, maybe on the edges, I should say, not to confuse with gross margins or anything like that, on the edges of the discussion, yes, there are some pipeline. People want to limit gas connections. Natural gas isn't going away. That is about the most foolish thing for people to think is the right answer for anything here.

是的。這是個好問題。我的意思是，歐洲一直並且一直是一個主要是柴油工商業發電機市場。所以這只是水平設置。我們不僅在歐洲市場看到了天然氣發電機組的增長，在印度也看到了增長。在這裡，最近幾乎一無所有。那裡什麼都沒有。我認為在邊緣，也許在邊緣，我應該說，不要與毛利率或類似的東西混淆，在討論的邊緣，是的，有一些管道。人們想要限制氣體連接。天然氣不會消失。這是人們認為這裡任何事情的正確答案的最愚蠢的事情。

Natural gas is needed for heating, for cooking. It's plentifully available, it burns cleanly. We would do well as a society to continue to focus on further improvements in cleaning up the emissions that come from natural gas, whether it be the extraction emissions or it's the consumption emissions. But because I think it's a fuel that can really help us shift as a populous here, as a global populous, further away from more carbon-intense forms of energy generation like coal and other fuels. So again, it's not -- it might be on the edges, you're going to see some natural gas limitation just like we are seeing here in the U.S. in places like California, Berkeley, other places like that, where they've taken the -- they've taken it on themselves to close off new natural gas connections.

取暖、做飯都需要天然氣。它有很多可用的，它燃燒乾淨。作為一個社會，我們最好繼續專注於進一步改善天然氣排放的清理，無論是開採排放還是消費排放。但是因為我認為它是一種燃料，可以真正幫助我們轉變為這裡的人口，作為全球人口，遠離煤炭和其他燃料等碳強度更高的能源生產形式。再說一次，它不是——它可能處於邊緣，你會看到一些天然氣限制，就像我們在美國看到的那樣，在加利福尼亞、伯克利等其他地方，他們已經採取了- 他們已經自己關閉了新的天然氣連接。

The reality of it is you can get a propane tank anyway. So I mean, it's kind of a fruitless effort, the generators are off of propane as well. So you don't actually need pipeline. It's helpful, but you don't need pipeline gas. So again, I think there's -- our view is there's going to be plenty of growth in the C&I generator world, even the home standby generator world outside of North America and natural gas gens are going to be part of that natural gas and propane gens.

現實情況是無論如何你都可以得到一個丙烷罐。所以我的意思是，這是一種徒勞的努力，發電機也沒有丙烷。所以你實際上並不需要管道。這很有幫助，但您不需要管道燃氣。再說一次，我認為 - 我們的觀點是，C&I 發電機世界將會有大量增長，即使是北美以外的家用備用發電機世界，天然氣發電也將成為天然氣和丙烷發電的一部分.

And our final question comes from Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Saree Boroditsky。

So just going back to the home standby commentary, you talked about only a modest decline in the second half of the year. Could you just help frame how you're thinking about the magnitude of the decline in the first half of the year?

所以回到家庭待命評論，你談到下半年只有適度的下降。您能否幫助說明您如何看待上半年的下降幅度？

No, we didn't necessarily frame that out. I think what we're looking at is more -- when you look at the total company, returning to solid growth in the second half resulting in only a modest decline for the total company for the full year. Saree, you can sort of get the magnitude of -- what that means for the first half on a total basis. You know that based on our comments that C&I is going to continue to be strong in the first half, so you'll see growth there. We'll be sequentially improving our clean energy business throughout the year in 2023. And so that basically leaves you sort of -- gives you some framework for how to put all the pieces together.

不，我們不一定要把它框出來。我認為我們所關注的更多——當您查看整個公司時，下半年恢復穩健增長，導致整個公司全年僅適度下降。 Saree，您可以大致了解這對上半年的總體意義。您知道，根據我們的評論，C&I 將在上半年繼續保持強勁勢頭，因此您會看到那裡的增長。我們將在 2023 年全年依次改進我們的清潔能源業務。所以這基本上讓你有點 - 為你提供了一些如何將所有部分組合在一起的框架。

Okay. And then it seems like sales grew faster at home standby than anticipated when you kind of gave out that 2024 guidance. Could you provide us with an estimate on where that puts you from a penetration rate at the end of this year? And then any thoughts on where we could go from there?

好的。然後，當您給出 2024 年的指導時，家庭待機的銷售增長似乎比預期的要快。您能否向我們提供一個估計，說明您在今年年底的滲透率在哪裡？然後對我們可以從那裡去哪裡有任何想法？

Well, pen rate this year, we're around 6% is where we anticipate ending. So it doesn't -- it didn't change that dramatically. And we're going to have to update our guidance on the long-range guidance. Again, I would point out, we did say at our Investor Day, that growth was not going to happen in a straight line. I know we have people who haven't been around the company that long and are learning kind of how the cycles work here, but we have, in particular with home standby, we have the dramatic increase cycles where you have these step functions up, then growth kind of levels off, comes off of the peak actually, comes down off of a peak and normalizes to a baseline level, a new baseline level that's materially higher than the previous baseline level.

好吧，今年的筆率，我們大約在 6% 左右，這是我們預計結束的地方。所以它沒有 - 它並沒有顯著改變。我們將不得不更新我們對長期指導的指導。我要再次指出，我們在投資者日確實說過，增長不會直線增長。我知道我們有些人在公司工作的時間不長，並且正在學習循環如何在這里工作，但是我們有，特別是在家庭待機方面，我們有顯著增加的循環，你有這些步驟功能，然後增長趨於平穩，實際上從峰值下降，從峰值下降並正常化到基線水平，一個新的基線水平，大大高於之前的基線水平。

And then you kind of -- as you increase awareness and distribution, then you're ready for the next step up in growth. So it's more of a step function grower. We'll have to review the long-term targets. We're not prepared to update them this morning, but we are going to have -- we'll have another Investor Day next year for sure, if not before then, in terms of updating the long-range guidance.

然後你有點——當你提高知名度和分佈時，你就可以為下一步的增長做好準備了。所以它更像是一個階梯函數增長器。我們將不得不審查長期目標。我們今天早上不准備更新它們，但我們將會 - 我們肯定會在明年舉行另一個投資者日，如果不是在那之前，就更新長期指導而言。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mike Harris for any closing remarks.

謝謝你。我現在想把會議轉回給 Mike Harris 來做任何閉幕詞。

We want to thank everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter and (inaudible) in mid-February. Thank you again, and goodbye.

我們要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待在 2 月中旬討論我們的第四季度和（聽不清）。再次感謝，再見。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。