Generac Holdings Inc (GNRC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Generac Holdings Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the call over to Kris Rosemann, Director of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加 Generac Holdings 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在想將電話轉給企業發展和投資者關係總監 Kris Rosemann。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2024 earnings call. I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. With me today is Aaron Jagdfeld, President and Chief Executive Officer; and York Ragen, Chief Financial Officer.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。今天與我在一起的是總裁兼執行長 Aaron Jagdfeld；和財務長約克·雷根。

We will begin our call today by commenting on forward-looking statements. Certain statements made during this presentation as well as other information provided from time to time by Generac or its employees may contain forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in these forward-looking statements. Please see our earnings release and our SEC filings for a list of words or expressions that identify such statements and the associated risk factors.

我們今天將首先對前瞻性陳述發表評論。本簡報中所做的某些陳述以及 Generac 或其員工不時提供的其他資訊可能包含前瞻性陳述，並涉及可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異的風險和不確定性。請參閱我們的收益報告和向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解識別此類聲明和相關風險因素的單字或表達方式清單。

In addition, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures during today's call. Additional information regarding these measures, including reconciliation to comparable US GAAP measures, is available in our earnings release and SEC filings.

此外，我們將在今天的電話會議中參考某些非公認會計準則措施。有關這些措施的更多信息，包括與可比較的美國公認會計準則措施的調節，請參閱我們的收益發布和向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

I will now turn the call over to Aaron.

我現在將把電話轉給亞倫。

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Our third quarter results were ahead of our previous expectations as elevated power outage activity drove a return to robust growth in overall net sales and strong execution helped to deliver significant margin expansion.

謝謝，克里斯。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我們第三季的業績超出了我們先前的預期，因為停電活動的增加推動了整體淨銷售額的強勁成長，而強大的執行力幫助實現了利潤率的大幅擴張。

The recent increase in outage activity pushed year-to-date power outage hours through September to the highest level since we began tracking this data in 2010. As a result of the third quarter outperformance and the higher-than-expected outage activity, specifically the impact of Hurricane Helene and Hurricanes Milton, we are raising our 2024 outlook.

最近停電活動的增加將年初至今的停電時間推至 2010 年我們開始追蹤該數據以來的最高水準。 ，我們正在上調2024 年的展望。

Year-over-year, overall net sales in the quarter increased approximately 10% to $1.2 billion. Residential product sales increased 28% from the prior year due to accelerating demand for home standby and portable generators in the quarter. Global C&I product sales decreased 15% from a strong prior year as CapEx spending for US-based rental, telecom and beyond standby products remained lower in the quarter and as market conditions further weakened in Europe.

本季整體淨銷售額年增約 10%，達到 12 億美元。由於本季家庭備用和便攜式發電機的需求加速，住宅產品銷售額較上年增長 28%。全球工商業產品銷售額較前一年強勁下降 15%，原因是本季美國租賃、電信和超越備用產品的資本支出仍然較低，且歐洲市場狀況進一步疲軟。

These softer end market conditions were partially offset by continued growth in shipments to our domestic industrial distributors as we continue to reduce our lead times. Additionally, favorable sales mix, lower input and logistics costs and improved production efficiencies drove significant expansion in gross and adjusted EBITDA margins in the quarter, with gross margins reaching their highest level since the third quarter of 2010.

由於我們持續縮短交貨時間，國內工業經銷商的出貨量持續成長，部分抵銷了終端市場狀況的疲軟。此外，有利的銷售組合、較低的投入和物流成本以及提高的生產效率推動本季毛利率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率大幅增長，毛利率達到 2010 年第三季以來的最高水平。

This margin expansion, together with our returned to overall net sales growth demonstrates the earnings power here at Generac as we continue to execute our strategic vision. Home standby shipments in the quarter increased at a high 20% rate from the prior year as a result of the elevated outage activity. Outage hours during the third quarter were at their highest quarterly level since the fourth quarter of 2012 and drove home consultations to an all-time quarterly record and continued to be strong in October due to the combined impacts of Hurricane Helene and Milton.

隨著我們繼續執行我們的策略願景，這種利潤率的擴張以及我們恢復的整體淨銷售額成長證明了 Generac 的獲利能力。由於停電活動增加，本季家庭待機出貨量較上年增加 20%。第三季的停電時間達到了自 2012 年第四季以來的最高季度水平，並推動家庭諮詢量創歷史季度記錄，並且由於颶風海倫和米爾頓的綜合影響，10 月份的停電時間繼續保持強勁。

Consistent with historical trends following periods of elevated outage activity, close rates have moved lower relative to the first half of 2024. This expected compression in close rates is expected to be temporary as our dealer network absorbs the rapid increase in home consultations and as we anticipate a return to the longer-term trend of improving close rates over time. We continue to invest heavily in lead optimization, sales to enhancements and improved lead nurturing practices to help improve the longer-term trajectory of close rates.

與停電活動增多後的歷史趨勢一致，成交率相對2024 年上半年有所下降。的那樣隨著時間的推移，回歸到成交率提高的長期趨勢。我們繼續在潛在客戶優化、銷售增強和改進潛在客戶培育實踐方面進行大量投資，以幫助改善成交率的長期軌跡。

We ended the third quarter with our residential dealer count at approximately 9,100, an increase of 400 dealers from the prior year with notable growth in Texas. We expect our dealer count to grow further in the regions recently impacted by severe weather, which not only helps drive overall category awareness but this expansion in distribution also plays a critical role in supporting a new and higher baseline level of demand for home standby generators going forward.

截至第三季末，我們的住宅經銷商數量約為 9,100 家，比前一年增加了 400 家，其中德州的經銷商數量顯著增加。我們預計最近受惡劣天氣影響的地區的經銷商數量將進一步增長，這不僅有助於提高整體品類認知度，而且分銷範圍的擴大也將在支持家庭備用發電機的新的更高基線需求水平方面發揮關鍵作用。

Our aligned contractor program also grew during the quarter and is quickly becoming an important new element of our distribution network particularly with the additional installation bandwidth they provide. Aligned contractors, which now number over 2,000, purchase products through our wholesale channel partners and have access to several important sales and service tools. The scale of our installation network, including dealers and nondealer contractors is an important advantage for Generac, particularly following accelerations in demand as we have seen in recent months.

我們的協調承包商計劃在本季度也有所增長，並迅速成為我們分銷網絡的重要新元素，特別是他們提供的額外安裝頻寬。目前合作的承包商數量超過 2,000 名，他們透過我們的批發通路合作夥伴購買產品，並可以使用多種重要的銷售和服務工具。我們的安裝網路規模（包括經銷商和非經銷商承包商）對 Generac 來說是一個重要優勢，特別是在我們最近幾個月看到需求加速成長之後。

Activations or installations of home standby generators returned to year-over-year growth in the third quarter, driven by strength in the South Central region, and to a lesser extent, the Northeast and Southeast regions. Activations have continued to increase early in the fourth quarter, supporting our expectations for ongoing growth throughout through year-end despite a strong prior year comparison.

在中南地區以及東北和東南地區強勁的推動下，第三季家庭備用發電機的啟動或安裝量恢復了同比增長。儘管與上年相比強勁，但第四季度初的激活量繼續增加，支持了我們對整個年底持續增長的預期。

With unmatched scale in this industry, we are uniquely positioned to meet the rapid increase in homeowner demand for residential backup power. In addition to our scale and logistics capabilities, our industry-leading distribution network and scalable call centers provide 24/7 consumer support and service to homeowners in their time of need. We also have unique marketing capabilities with the resources and capacity to drive additional awareness of our products and generate sales leads for our distribution partners, both within the impacted regions and more broadly across the nation.

憑藉該行業無與倫比的規模，我們具有獨特的優勢，可以滿足房主對住宅備用電源快速增長的需求。除了我們的規模和物流能力之外，我們行業領先的分銷網絡和可擴展的呼叫中心還可以在房主需要時提供 24/7 的消費者支援和服務。我們也擁有獨特的行銷能力，擁有資源和能力，可以在受影響的地區乃至全國範圍內提高我們產品的知名度，並為我們的分銷合作夥伴創造銷售線索。

Additionally, we are further ramping our home standby production rates and have increased hiring in our Whitewater, Wisconsin and Trenton, South Carolina plants to meet the elevated demand levels we're seeing after Helene and Milton.

此外，我們正在進一步提高我們的家庭備用生產力，並增加了威斯康辛州懷特沃特和南卡羅來納州特倫頓工廠的招聘，以滿足我們在海倫和米爾頓之後看到的更高的需求水平。

Given our prior investment in additional home standby manufacturing capacity, we have been able to increase -- to accelerate production at a much quicker pace. In fact, as a result of these investments and the tremendous effort of our teams, we expect to ship approximately $200 million of incremental home standby and portable generators in 2024 related to the impact of the major hurricanes in the second half of the year. The combination of Hurricanes Helene and Milton is also expected to result in higher levels of awareness for backup power longer term as homeowners and businesses look for solutions as protection against power outages.

鑑於我們先前對額外家庭備用製造能力的投資，我們已經能夠以更快的速度提高生產速度。事實上，由於這些投資和我們團隊的巨大努力，我們預計在 2024 年將運送約 2 億美元的增量家用備用和便攜式發電機，以應對下半年主要颶風的影響。颶風海倫和米爾頓的結合預計也將提高人們對長期備用電源的認識，因為房主和企業正在尋求解決方案來防止停電。

With a nationwide home standby penetration rate at only approximately 6% and the combined penetration rate of the states recently impacted by severe hurricane activity being slightly below that level, we believe there is significant runway for future growth in the category as the mega trend around lower power quality continues to play out.

由於全國範圍內的家庭備用滲透率僅為6% 左右，而且最近受嚴重颶風活動影響的各州的綜合滲透率略低於該水平，我們認為該類別的未來增長空間很大，因為大趨勢圍繞較低水平電能品質持續顯現。

Demand for portable generators also surged in the quarter as a result of the dramatic increase in power outage activity over the last four months with third quarter shipments increasing at a very strong year-over-year rate. These products not only provide an essential solution for any homeowners and emergencies, but they also often serve as an introduction for most first-time buyers to the backup power market helping to drive Generac brand awareness.

由於過去四個月停電活動急劇增加，本季對便攜式發電機的需求也激增，第三季出貨量較去年同期成長非常強勁。這些產品不僅為任何房主和緊急情況提供了重要的解決方案，而且還經常為大多數首次購買者介紹備用電源市場，幫助提高 Generac 品牌知名度。

In addition to the recent storm-driven benefit, we are leveraging our product breadth and our ability to react to sharp demand increases to further expand our relationships with the major retailers that serve as primary distribution channel partners for portable generators.

除了最近風暴帶來的收益外，我們還利用我們的產品範圍和對需求急劇增長的反應能力，進一步擴大我們與作為便攜式發電機主要分銷渠道合作夥伴的主要零售商的關係。

Now moving to our Residential Energy Technology Products & Solutions. Our energy storage system sales benefited from initial shipments associated with the previously awarded Department of Energy Grand in Puerto Rico. This program is accelerating as we enter 2025 and provides favorable top line momentum, particularly with the upcoming commercial launch of our next-generation power cell energy storage system that we introduced at in September.

現在轉向我們的住宅能源技術產品和解決方案。我們的儲能係統銷售受益於先前授予的與波多黎各能源部 Grand 相關的初始出貨量。隨著我們進入 2025 年，該計劃正在加速推進，並提供了有利的營收動力，特別是我們 9 月推出的下一代動力電池儲能係統即將商業化推出。

PowerCell it includes important upgrades over our previous generation of storage products with PowerCell positioned as the market leader in storage capacity per cabinet, while also delivering improved continuous and peak power output. The AC coupled PowerCell also brings additional flexibility, including an improved retrofit installation experience and seamless generator integration with both home standby and portable generators as well as a differentiated user interface through our ecobee platform.

PowerCell 它包括我們上一代儲存產品的重要升級，PowerCell 被定位為每個機櫃儲存容量的市場領導者，同時還提供改進的連續和峰值功率輸出。交流耦合 PowerCell 還帶來了額外的靈活性，包括改進的改造安裝體驗、與家庭備用發電機和便攜式發電機的無縫發電機集成，以及透過我們的 ecobee 平台提供的差異化用戶介面。

The introduction of the Power Cell 2 Series marks a key milestone for the company as we believe we are building a unique energy management ecosystem for the market, centered around the ecobee Smart Home Energy Hub and focused on both resiliency and energy savings. Additionally, as we accelerate our efforts in expanding and engaging our channel partners for these products over the coming quarters, we expect to further leverage our expertise in building and developing distribution, lead generation via direct-to-consumer marketing and our brand strength.

Power Cell 2 系列的推出標誌著該公司的一個重要里程碑，因為我們相信我們正在為市場建立一個獨特的能源管理生態系統，以 ecobee 智慧家庭能源中心為中心，重點是彈性和節能。此外，隨著我們在未來幾季加快努力擴大和吸引這些產品的通路合作夥伴，我們預計將進一步利用我們在建立和開發分銷、透過直接面向消費者的營銷產生潛在客戶以及我們的品牌實力方面的專業知識。

In addition to growth in our clean energy storage solutions, our team at ecobee continues to execute very well, driving growth and significant gross margin expansion from the prior year, while also adding new products and partnerships. We believe ecobee's market share continues to grow as a result of these initiatives, building on the current installed base of more than 4 million connected homes.

除了我們的清潔能源儲存解決方案的成長之外，我們的ecobee團隊繼續表現出色，推動了成長並比上一年顯著增加了毛利率，同時還增加了新產品和合作夥伴關係。我們相信，由於這些舉措，ecobee 的市佔率將在目前超過 400 萬個連網家庭的安裝基礎上繼續成長。

We see the intelligent HVAC control that ecobee provides within our energy management ecosystem as a meaningful differentiator, and we are working towards similar capabilities for EV charging management through our partnership with Wallbox.

我們認為 ecobee 在我們的能源管理生態系統中提供的智慧 HVAC 控制是一個有意義的差異化因素，並且我們正在透過與 Wallbox 的合作，努力實現電動車充電管理的類似功能。

Switching gears now to our C&I product category. As previously mentioned, global C&I product sales declined 15% from the prior year. Shipments to our North American industrial distributor channel, again, grew at a robust rate in the third quarter, and quoting activity has remained resilient. Although our operational execution has allowed us to reduce lead times, and customer project time lines have extended more recently, and we will be monitoring these trends closely as we head into 2025.

現在切換到我們的 C&I 產品類別。如前所述，全球工商業產品銷售額較前一年下降 15%。第三季度，我們北美工業經銷商通路的出貨量再次強勁成長，報價活動保持彈性。儘管我們的營運執行使我們能夠縮短交付週期，而且客戶專案的時間線最近也有所延長，但在進入 2025 年時，我們將密切關注這些趨勢。

As expected, shipments to national telecom and rental equipment customers declined in the quarter from the prior year period. While we expect that our sales to the telecom market have bottomed, we believe demand for -- from our rental equipment customers will likely remain softer in the coming quarters.

正如預期的那樣，本季向全國電信和租賃設備客戶的出貨量較去年同期有所下降。雖然我們預計我們對電信市場的銷售已經觸底，但我們相信租賃設備客戶的需求在未來幾季可能會保持疲軟。

Despite the cyclical weakness we've experienced in 2024, we continue to view both the telecom and rental categories as long-term growth opportunities, given the mission-critical wireless networks and infrastructure-related projects that our products support. Shipments of our natural gas generators for use and beyond standby applications also declined during the quarter from a very strong prior year comparable period.

儘管我們在 2024 年經歷了周期性疲軟，但考慮到我們的產品支援的關鍵任務無線網路和基礎設施相關項目，我們仍然將電信和租賃類別視為長期成長機會。本季度，我們的使用和備用應用以外的天然氣發電機的出貨量也較去年同期的強勁水準有所下降。

End market activity remains subdued, but we are optimistic regarding the longer-term prospects for these applications and adjacent projects due to the supporting mega trends of lower power quality and higher power prices. We continue to develop a growing pipeline for our C&I battery energy storage systems or BES, as well as our multi-asset microgrid offerings, which often include traditional generator products as part of these solutions.

終端市場活動仍然低迷，但由於電能品質下降和電價上漲的大趨勢的支撐，我們對這些應用和鄰近項目的長期前景感到樂觀。我們繼續為我們的工商業電池儲能係統或 BES 以及我們的多資產微電網產品開發不斷增長的產品線，其中通常包括傳統發電機產品作為這些解決方案的一部分。

In early August, we acquired Agito, a leading provider of microgrid controllers. This small but strategically important deal follows our recent acquisition of Sun Grid's C&I best product offering and brings us important technical capabilities that enable end users to coordinate, optimize and monitor multiple energy assets from a single interface. Aged also brings commercial synergies, given its strong reputation in the C&I microgrid space.

8月初，我們收購了領先的微電網控制器供應商Agito。這項規模雖小但具有重要戰略意義的交易是在我們最近收購了Sun Grid 的C&I 最佳產品之後進行的，它為我們帶來了重要的技術能力，使最終用戶能夠透過單一介面協調、優化和監控多個能源資產。鑑於其在工商業微電網領域的良好聲譽，Aged 也帶來了商業協同效應。

By leveraging these capabilities, Generic was selected for negotiations by the Department of Energy to receive a grant of $50 million to deploy microgrid solutions across approximately 100 California water utility sites. The total investment from the DOE grant and water utilities, inclusive of all hardware components, installation costs and community benefits associated with the project is expected to be approximately $100 million.

透過利用這些能力，Generic 被能源部選中參加談判，獲得 5000 萬美元的撥款，用於在加州約 100 個供水設施站點部署微電網解決方案。美國能源部撥款和自來水公司的總投資（包括與該項目相關的所有硬體組件、安裝成本和社區效益）預計約為 1 億美元。

These microgrids will also form virtual power plants capable of delivering critical grid support during times of stress. We believe this award provides important validation of our strategic vision for energy technology within the C&I product category and has the potential to serve as a successful proof point for similar applications across the country.

這些微電網也將形成虛擬發電廠，能夠在壓力時期提供關鍵的電網支援。我們相信，該獎項對我們在工商業產品類別中的能源技術策略願景提供了重要的驗證，並有可能成為全國類似應用的成功證明。

Internationally, total sales decreased year-over-year primarily due to lower intercompany shipments from our Mexican operations to the telecom market in the US as well as a decline in portable generator and C&I product sales in Europe. Our international results continue to be impacted by varying market conditions around the globe as softness in Europe in the third quarter was partially offset by growth in other key regions, most notably Latin America.

在國際方面，總銷售額年減，主要是由於我們墨西哥業務到美國電信市場的公司間發貨量減少以及歐洲便攜式發電機和工商業產品銷售的下降。我們的國際業績持續受到全球不同市場狀況的影響，因為第三季歐洲的疲軟被其他主要地區（尤其是拉丁美洲）的成長部分抵銷。

Adjusted EBITDA margins have been impacted by this decline in shipment volumes, but as we execute on our global growth initiatives, we expect to drive continued improved profitability over time in this important segment of our business.

調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率受到出貨量下降的影響，但隨著我們執行全球成長計劃，我們預計隨著時間的推移，我們這一重要業務領域的獲利能力將持續提高。

In closing this morning, our third quarter outperformance and increased 2024 outlook highlight our strong execution alongside the mega trends that support our long-term growth expectations. Significant margin expansion and robust free cash flow generation thus far in 2024, have helped to enable our disciplined and balanced capital allocation strategy.

今天早上收盤時，我們第三季的優異表現和上調的 2024 年前景凸顯了我們強大的執行力以及支持我們長期成長預期的大趨勢。 2024 年迄今為止，利潤率的顯著擴張和強勁的自由現金流產生有助於實現我們嚴格且平衡的資本配置策略。

I also want to take a moment to thank the teams here at Generac that have been executing our rapid response to the significant increase in power outage activity over the last several months. Our operations, supply chain and customer support teams have been working tirelessly in response to Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

我還想花點時間感謝 Generac 的團隊，他們對過去幾個月停電活動的大幅增加做出了快速反應。我們的營運、供應鏈和客戶支援團隊一直在不懈地努力，應對颶風海倫和米爾頓。

I'm incredibly proud of our team's efforts, particularly those of our field service field service storm response teams that travel directly into the areas impacted by these events to provide vital boots on the ground support to customers and distribution partners. As power outages have steadily trended higher over the last 30 years, the need for continuous and reliable sources of power is growing due to the increasingly electrified and connected nature of our homes, businesses and our transportation.

我對我們團隊的努力感到無比自豪，特別是我們的現場服務風暴響應團隊，他們直接前往受這些事件影響的地區，為客戶和分銷合作夥伴提供重要的實地支援。過去 30 年來，停電次數呈現穩定上升趨勢，由於我們的家庭、企業和交通日益電氣化和互聯，對持續可靠電源的需求也在不斷增長。

These electrification trends together with the adoption of artificial intelligence and the reindustrialization of North America are driving expectations for power demand or load growth far beyond what has been seen in the last two decades. At the same time, renewable intermittent generation sources are being prioritized. We expect that these secular trends will drive grid-related supply-demand imbalances ultimately resulting in lower power quality and higher power prices for all ratepayers.

這些電氣化趨勢，加上人工智慧的採用和北美的再工業化，正在推動電力需求或負載成長的預期遠遠超出過去二十年的水準。同時，可再生間歇性發電資源正被優先考慮。我們預計這些長期趨勢將導致與電網相關的供需失衡，最終導致所有納稅人的電能品質下降和電價上漲。

By building on our well-established resiliency value proposition with solutions that optimize for efficiency, consumption, cost and comfort, we are confident that Generac is uniquely positioned to help home and business owners overcome the challenges of the evolving electrical grid.

透過以我們完善的彈性價值主張為基礎，提供優化效率、消耗、成本和舒適度的解決方案，我們相信 Generac 具有獨特的優勢，能夠幫助家庭和企業主克服不斷發展的電網的挑戰。

I'll now turn the call over to York to provide further details on the third quarter results and our increased outlook for 2024. York?

我現在將把電話轉給約克，提供有關第三季度業績的更多詳細信息以及我們對 2024 年增長的展望。

Thanks, Aaron. Looking at third quarter 2024 results in more detail. Net sales were $1.17 billion during the third quarter of 2024, as compared to $1.07 billion in the prior year third quarter. The combination of contributions from recent acquisitions and the unfavorable impact from foreign currency had a slight net positive impact on revenue during the quarter.

謝謝，亞倫。更詳細地了解 2024 年第三季的業績。 2024 年第三季的淨銷售額為 11.7 億美元，而去年第三季的淨銷售額為 10.7 億美元。最近收購的貢獻和外匯的不利影響相結合，對本季的收入產生了輕微的淨正面影響。

Briefly looking at consolidated net sales for the third quarter by product class. Residential product sales increased 28% to $723 million as compared to $565 million in the prior year. This robust growth was driven by a significant power outage -- the significant power outage activity during the quarter due to Hurricanes and Helene, resulting in a high 20% increase in shipments of home standby generators and very strong growth for portable generators domestically.

依產品類別簡要查看第三季的綜合淨銷售額。住宅產品銷售額成長 28%，達到 7.23 億美元，而前一年為 5.65 億美元。這一強勁成長是由嚴重停電推動的——颶風和海倫導致本季出現嚴重停電活動，導致家用備用發電機出貨量大幅成長 20%，國內便攜式發電機也出現非常強勁的成長。

In addition, sales of residential energy technology solutions were higher during the quarter as we experienced growth in both our clean energy and ecobee product offerings. Commercial and industrial product sales for the third quarter of 2024 decreased 15% to $328 million as compared to $385 million in the prior year quarter, including a slight positive impact from the combination of contributions from acquisitions and unfavorable foreign currency.

此外，由於我們的清潔能源和 Ecobee 產品系列都實現了成長，本季住宅能源技術解決方案的銷售額也有所增加。 2024 年第三季商業和工業產品銷售額下降 15%，至 3.28 億美元，而去年同期為 3.85 億美元，其中包括收購和不利外匯的共同貢獻帶來的輕微正面影響。

The core sales decline was due to the expected weakness in domestic shipments for telecom, national equipment rental and beyond standby applications as well as softer market conditions in Europe. This was partially offset by a robust increase in C&I product shipments through our domestic industrial distributor channel and growth in certain other international markets.

核心銷售下降的原因是電信、國家設備租賃和備用應用領域的國內出貨量預計疲軟，以及歐洲市場狀況疲軟。這被我們國內工業分銷商通路的工商業產品出貨量的強勁成長以及某些其他國際市場的成長所部分抵銷。

Net sales for other products and services increased slightly to $123 million as compared to $121 million in the prior year quarter as strength in domestic service parts, accessories and deferred warranty revenue was partially offset by lower industrial project services revenue. Gross profit margin was 40.2% compared to 35.1% in the prior year third quarter, primarily due to favorable sales mix, given stronger home standby shipments, lower input and logistics costs and improved production efficiencies within our home standby manufacturing facilities.

其他產品和服務的淨銷售額小幅增長至 1.23 億美元，而去年同期為 1.21 億美元，原因是國內服務零件、配件和延期保固收入的增長被工業項目服務收入的下降部分抵消。毛利率為 40.2%，而去年第三季為 35.1%，這主要歸功於有利的銷售組合、家庭備用出貨量增加、投入和物流成本降低以及家庭備用製造設施內生產效率的提高。

Third quarter gross margins were the highest we've seen in any quarter since 2010 and also exceeded our prior expectations. Operating expenses increased $33 million or 12% as compared to the third quarter of 2023. The overall growth in operating expenses was primarily due to ongoing investment in resources to drive future growth additional marketing spend to create incremental awareness for our products and higher variable expenses and incentive compensation given higher shipment volumes and profitability.

第三季的毛利率是自 2010 年以來任何季度中最高的，也超出了我們先前的預期。與2023 年第三季相比，營運費用增加了3,300 萬美元，即12%。更高的變動費用和給予更高的出貨量和獲利能力的激勵補償。

These increases were partially offset by a $22 million provision for certain legal matters that was recorded in the prior year, which did not repeat in the current year period. As a result of these factors, adjusted EBITDA before deducting for noncontrolling interest, as defined in our earnings release, was $232 million or 19.8% of net sales in the third quarter as compared to $189 million or 17.6% of net sales in the prior year.

這些增長被上一年記錄的某些法律事務的 2,200 萬美元撥備部分抵消，該撥備在本年度期間沒有重複。由於這些因素，根據我們的收益發布中的定義，扣除非控股權益之前的調整後EBITDA 為2.32 億美元，佔第三季淨銷售額的19.8%，而上一年為1.89 億美元，佔淨銷售額的17.6% 。

Adjusted EBITDA margins came in ahead of our prior expectations during the quarter as a result of the gross margin outperformance. The significant increase in adjusted EBITDA showcases the earnings power of Generac as we return to strong overall net sales growth with a robust margin profile.

由於毛利率表現出色，本季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率超出了我們先前的預期。調整後 EBITDA 的大幅成長展示了 Generac 的獲利能力，因為我們恢復了強勁的整體淨銷售成長和強勁的利潤率。

I will now briefly discuss financial results for our two reporting segments. Domestic segment total sales, including intersegment sales, increased 14% to $1.02 billion in the quarter as compared to $894 million in the prior year quarter, including a slight benefit from acquisitions. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment was $212 million, representing a 20.7% margin as compared to $160 million in the prior year or 17.9% of total sales.

我現在將簡要討論我們兩個報告分部的財務表現。本季國內部門總銷售額（包括部門間銷售額）成長了 14%，達到 10.2 億美元，而去年同期為 8.94 億美元，其中包括收購帶來的小幅收益。該部門調整後 EBITDA 為 2.12 億美元，利潤率為 20.7%，而前一年為 1.6 億美元，佔總銷售額的 17.9%。

International segment total sales, which includes intersegment sales, decreased 20% to $167 million in the quarter as compared to $208 million in the prior year quarter, including a slight unfavorable impact from foreign currency. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment before deducting for noncontrolling interest was $20 million or 12.2% of total sales as compared to $28 million or 13.6% of total sales in the prior year.

本季國際部門總銷售額（包括部門間銷售額）下降 20%，至 1.67 億美元，而去年同期為 2.08 億美元，其中包括匯率的輕微不利影響。在扣除非控股權益前，該部門調整後的 EBITDA 為 2,000 萬美元，佔總銷售額的 12.2%，而前一年為 2,800 萬美元，佔總銷售額的 13.6%。

Now switching back to our financial performance for the third quarter of '24 on a consolidated basis. As disclosed in our earnings release, GAAP net income for the company in the quarter was $114 million as compared to $60 million for the third quarter of 2023. The current year third quarter GAAP net income includes a $5.2 million gain on the change in fair value of our investment in Wallbox equity securities and warrants, which was partially offset by a $4.9 million loss on extinguishment of debt related to our previously announced Term Loan B refinancing.

現在回到我們 2024 年第三季的綜合財務表現。正如我們在財報中所揭露的那樣，該公司本季的GAAP 淨利為1.14 億美元，而2023 年第三季的GAAP 淨利為6,000 萬美元。萬美元我們對 Wallbox 股本證券和認股權證的投資，部分被我們先前宣布的定期貸款 B 再融資相關債務清償造成的 490 萬美元損失所抵銷。

GAAP income taxes during the current year third quarter were $33 million or an effective tax rate of 22.7% as compared to $19 million or an effective tax rate of 24.3% for the prior year. The decrease in effective tax rate was primarily driven by certain unfavorable discrete tax items in the prior year period, which did not repeat in the current year.

本年度第三季的 GAAP 所得稅為 3,300 萬美元，有效稅率為 22.7%，而前一年的 GAAP 所得稅為 1,900 萬美元，有效稅率為 24.3%。有效稅率下降主要是由於上年度某些不利的離散稅項導致本年度沒有重複。

Diluted net income per share for the company on a GAAP basis was $1.89 in the third quarter of '24 compared to $0.97 in the prior year. Adjusted net income for the company, as defined in our earnings release, was $136 million in the current year quarter or $2.25 per share. This compares to adjusted net income of $102 million in the prior year or $1.64 per share.

2024 年第三季度，以 GAAP 計算，該公司稀釋後每股淨利為 1.89 美元，去年同期為 0.97 美元。根據我們的收益發布中的定義，該公司本季調整後淨利潤為 1.36 億美元，即每股 2.25 美元。相比之下，上一年調整後淨利潤為 1.02 億美元，即每股 1.64 美元。

Cash flow from operations in the current year third quarter was $212 million as compared to $140 million in the prior year third quarter. And free cash flow, as defined in our earnings release, was $184 million as compared to $117 million in the same quarter last year. The improvement in free cash flow was primarily driven by higher operating earnings and a greater reduction in primary working capital in the current year quarter partially offset by an increase in capital expenditures relative to the prior year.

今年第三季的營運現金流為 2.12 億美元，而去年第三季的營運現金流為 1.4 億美元。我們的財報中定義的自由現金流為 1.84 億美元，而去年同期為 1.17 億美元。自由現金流的改善主要是由於本季營業收入的增加和主要營運資本的大幅減少，部分被資本支出相對於去年的增加所抵銷。

Additionally, during the third quarter, we repurchased nearly 691,000 shares of our common stock for approximately $102 million. Over the last two calendar years, we've repurchased approximately 3.2 million shares at an average cost of $125 per share.

此外，在第三季度，我們以約 1.02 億美元的價格回購了近 691,000 股普通股。在過去的兩年裡，我們以每股 125 美元的平均成本回購了約 320 萬股股票。

There's approximately $347 million remaining under the current repurchase authorization as of September 30. As previously announced, we also deployed capital during the third quarter with an additional $35 million investment in Wallbox and the small but strategic acquisition of In addition, we made a $30 million prepayment on our term loan B credit facility in connection with the refinancing that closed on July 3.

截至9 月30 日，目前回購授權剩餘約3.47 億美元。的收購。

Total debt outstanding at the end of the quarter was $1.5 billion, resulting in a gross debt leverage ratio at the end of the third quarter of 2.1 times on an as-reported basis, a continued reduction from 2.5 times at the end of 2023.

本季末未償債務總額為 15 億美元，導致第三季末的總負債槓桿率為報告的 2.1 倍，較 2023 年底的 2.5 倍持續下降。

With that, I will now provide further comments on our updated outlook for 2024. As disclosed in our press release this morning, we are increasing our overall outlook for the full year 2024. Given the higher than previously expected power outage activity in the Southeast region of the US, specifically the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton. We now expect overall 2024 net sales growth to be approximately 5% to 9% as compared to the prior year. This is an increase from the previously expected range of 4% to 8%.

現在，我將就我們更新後的2024 年展望提供進一步的評論。的預期美國的影響，特別是颶風海倫和米爾頓的影響。我們目前預計 2024 年整體淨銷售額將較上一年成長約 5% 至 9%。這比之前預期的 4% 至 8% 有所增長。

Breaking this down by product class, relative to our prior expectations, residential products are expected to increase by approximately $100 million, primarily due to incremental home standby and portable generator sales resulting from the higher power outage activity.

按產品類別細分，相對於我們先前的預期，住宅產品預計將增加約 1 億美元，這主要是由於停電活動增加導致家庭備用和便攜式發電機銷售增加。

As a result, our overall residential product sales growth is now expected to be in the high teens range on a year-over-year basis compared to our prior expectations of mid-teens increase. However, softer-than-expected market conditions within certain domestic and European end markets for our C&I and other product categories are projected to partially offset the increased residential product sales outlook.

因此，與我們之前預計的十幾歲左右的增長相比，我們目前預計住宅產品的整體銷售增長將在十幾歲左右。然而，我們的工商業和其他產品類別的某些國內和歐洲終端市場的市場狀況低於預期，預計將部分抵消住宅產品銷售前景的成長。

We now expect the combination of C&I and other product sales to be approximately $50 million below our prior forecast, resulting in C&I product sales now projected to be down high single digits compared to the prior year for the full year 2024. The other sales category is anticipated to be nearly flat on a year-over-year basis for the full year 2024.

我們現在預計 C&I 和其他產品的銷售額合計將比我們之前的預測低約 5000 萬美元，導致 2024 年全年 C&I 產品銷售額預計將比上一年下降高個位數。年全年同比幾乎持平。

Our gross margin expectations for the full year '24 have also increased relative to our previous guidance due to the third quarter outperformance and higher sales mix of home standby generator is now expected in the fourth quarter. We now project gross margins to improve by approximately 450 basis points over the full year 2023, resulting in implied fourth quarter gross margins that are similar to third quarter gross margin in the 40% range.

由於第三季的表現出色，目前預計第四季度家庭備用發電機的銷售組合將更高，因此我們對 24 年全年的毛利率預期也相對於我們先前的指導有所增加。我們現在預計 2023 年全年的毛利率將提高約 450 個基點，從而導致第四季度的隱含毛利率與第三季的毛利率相似，在 40% 的範圍內。

As a result of the increased outlook for gross margins, adjusted EBITDA margins before deducting for noncontrolling interests are now expected to be approximately 17.5% to 18.5% for the full year 2024 as compared to the previous guidance range of 17% to 18%. This implies fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 20%. As is our normal practice, we're also providing updated guidance details to assist with modeling adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow for the full year 2024.

由於毛利率前景的提高，目前預計 2024 年全年扣除非控制權益前的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 17.5% 至 18.5%，而先前的指導範圍為 17% 至 18%。這意味著第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 20%。按照我們的慣例，我們還提供更新的指導細節，以幫助對 2024 年全年調整後每股收益和自由現金流進行建模。

For the full year, our GAAP effective tax rate is lower than our prior outlook now expected to be approximately 24% to 25% compared to our previous guidance range of 25% to 26%. This is expected to result in a GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 24% to 24.5% in the fourth quarter.

就全年而言，我們的 GAAP 有效稅率低於我們先前的預期，目前預計約為 24% 至 25%，而我們先前的指導範圍為 25% 至 26%。預計第四季 GAAP 有效稅率約為 24% 至 24.5%。

Importantly, to arrive at appropriate estimates for adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share, add back items should be reflected net of tax using the 24% to 25% expected effective tax rate. As a result of lower interest rate expectations, our gross interest expense is now expected to be approximately $91 million to $93 million as compared to prior guidance of $92 million to $94 million.

重要的是，為了對調整後淨利潤和調整後每股收益做出適當的估計，回加項目應使用 24% 至 25% 的預期有效稅率反映稅後淨額。由於利率預期較低，我們的總利息支出目前預計約為 9,100 萬美元至 9,300 萬美元，而先前的指引為 9,200 萬美元至 9,400 萬美元。

This guidance assumes no additional term loan or revolver principal prepayments during the year. Stock compensation is now expected to be between $50 million to $52 million for the year as compared to prior guidance of $52 million to $54 million.

本指南假設年內沒有額外的定期貸款或循環本金預付款。目前預計今年的股票薪酬將在 5,000 萬美元至 5,200 萬美元之間，而先前的指引為 5,200 萬美元至 5,400 萬美元。

As a result of our share repurchases that were completed in the third quarter of 2024, our full year weighted average diluted share count is now expected to decrease to approximately 60.5 million shares as compared to prior guidance of 60.5 million to 61 million shares. Our guidance for capital expenditures as a percent of sales remains consistent at approximately 3% of sales.

由於我們在 2024 年第三季完成了股票回購，我們的全年加權平均稀釋股票數量預計將減少至約 6,050 萬股，而先前的指引為 6,050 萬股至 6,100 萬股。我們對資本支出佔銷售額百分比的指導始終保持在銷售額的 3% 左右。

Depreciation expense and GAAP intangible amortization expense also remained consistent with last quarter's guidance. We continue to expect free cash flow conversion for the full year to be well above 100% as we anticipate a further reduction in working capital in the fourth quarter. This would result in free cash flow of approximately $500 million for the full year 2024 giving us significant optionality to drive further shareholder value in the future.

折舊費用和公認會計準則無形攤銷費用也與上季度的指導保持一致。我們繼續預計全年自由現金流轉換率將遠高於 100%，因為我們預計第四季營運資金將進一步減少。這將導致 2024 年全年自由現金流約為 5 億美元，為我們在未來進一步推動股東價值提供重要選擇。

This concludes our prepared remarks. At this time, we'd like to open up the call for questions. Operator?

我們準備好的演講到此結束。此時，我們想開放提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Tommy Moll, Stephens Inc.

（操作員說明）Tommy Moll，Stephens Inc.

I want to start on home standby. So you guided the residential revenue of high teens year-over-year now. Within that, is it safe to assume that home standby would be a little bit above and what are you assuming for activations embedded in that full year guidance?

我想開始在家待機。因此，您現在逐年指導了青少年的住宅收入。其中，是否可以安全地假設家庭待機會略高一些？

Yes, Tommy. So yes, home standby is going to be a little bit above that 15% range. In terms of activations, we're anticipating -- we returned to growth here in the third quarter with activations. We believe that's going to accelerate, as we said in the prepared remarks this morning throughout the fourth quarter as the market digests the increase in demand here from the recent events. .

是的，湯米。所以，是的，家庭待機率將略高於 15% 的範圍。在激活方面，我們預計 - 我們將在第三季度透過激活恢復成長。正如我們今天早上在準備好的演講中所說，隨著市場消化最近發生的事件導致的需求增加，我們相信這種情況將會加速。 。

So again, I don't think we've given specific guidance on activations for the full year, but it is expected to be -- and again, I would remind you, we had a really strong fourth quarter last year. So it's a pretty strong comp that we're up against there on activations, but we're pretty confident given all of the signs here. We are seeing activations here early in the fourth quarter kind of pacing to where we thought they'd be.

因此，我認為我們沒有就全年的激活給出具體的指導，但預計會——我想再次提醒您，我們去年第四季度的表現非常強勁。因此，這是一個非常強大的組合，我們在激活方面面臨挑戰，但考慮到這裡的所有跡象，我們非常有信心。我們看到第四季初的激活活動正朝著我們預期的方向發展。

Thanks, Aaron. As a follow-up, we haven't talked too much today. about the margin impact from the energy technology investments. But I know that the intention there is for that to fade over time. And while you're not going to guide us for 2025 today, anything you can do to help frame how that margin drag could fade next year based on what you're seeing would be helpful.

謝謝，亞倫。作為後續，我們今天沒有談太多。關於能源技術投資對利潤率的影響。但我知道這種意圖會隨著時間的流逝而消失。雖然您今天不會為我們提供 2025 年的指導，但根據您所看到的情況，您可以採取任何措施來幫助確定明年利潤率拖累如何消失，這都會有所幫助。

Yes. I mean, this year, it's going to be in that 350 to 400 basis point range. It's kind of been hanging in that level. It's -- obviously, it's a high level of investment for us. As we said in the prepared remarks, we are making progress at RE plus this year, which is the renewable energy show out in Anaheim, we introduced our Power Cell 2.

是的。我的意思是，今年，它將在 350 到 400 個基點範圍內。它有點懸在那個水平上。顯然，這對我們來說是一筆高水準的投資。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，我們在今年的 RE plus 上取得了進展，這是在阿納海姆舉行的可再生能源展會，我們推出了 Power Cell 2。

We had really good receptivity there. I think the idea of building out this ecosystem with the Ecobee Energy Hub as we refer to it. At the center of that was incredibly well received. We think it's a differentiator in terms of the ability to control one of the heaviest loads in the home in terms of HVAC and do that in concert with energy storage and build out that ecosystem.

我們在那裡的接收能力非常好。我認為用我們所謂的 Ecobee Energy Hub 來建立這個生態系統的想法。其中的中心受到了令人難以置信的好評。我們認為這是一個差異化因素，能夠控製家庭中最重的負載之一（在暖通空調方面），並與能源儲存結合併建造生態系統。

And then as we said, doing similar things with some of the other heavier loads that present like EV charging, we just believe that that's something that's going to be really, really important going forward. And we don't think that there's really anybody else that's going to be doing it similar to us.

然後，正如我們所說，對電動車充電等其他一些較重的負載做類似的事情，我們只是相信這將是未來非常非常重要的事情。我們認為沒有其他人會做與我們類似的事情。

Now as we laid out in our Investor Day last year in 2023, we still think that by the end of 2026, that we're going to be closer to breakeven. That's that we believe is still within reach for that business. And so the drag on EBITDA, again, we're not going to be able to pin down specifically next year's impact.

現在，正如我們在 2023 年投資者日上所闡述的那樣，我們仍然認為到 2026 年底，我們將更接近收支平衡。我們相信該業務仍然可以實現。因此，對 EBITDA 的拖累，我們將無法具體確定明年的影響。

But obviously, it's going to abate from the 350 to 400 basis point drag run rate, if you will, today, to that kind of breakeven point, which, by the way, even if we hit breakeven with that business, still going to present a drag on EBITDA margins in '26 until we get significantly to the other side of that. But we are seeing progress.

但顯然，如果你今天願意的話，它將從 350 到 400 個基點的阻力運行率減弱到那種盈虧平衡點，順便說一句，即使我們在該業務上達到盈虧平衡，仍然會出現26 年的EBITDA利潤率受到拖累，直到我們顯著地達到另一邊。但我們正在看到進展。

We're excited about the receptivity of those products. Now we've got to do the hard work of commercializing these new products that we're bringing to market. And that's, I think, something that, again, we haven't really had with the first-generation product that we've been selling. It's been more difficult for us to make headway -- and we -- I know the teams here, the commercial teams, in particular, and energy technology are really excited to have new products to sell as we get into 2025.

我們對這些產品的接受度感到興奮。現在我們必須努力將我們推向市場的這些新產品商業化。我認為，這也是我們一直在銷售的第一代產品所沒有真正具備的。對我們來說，取得進展變得更加困難——而且我們——我知道這裡的團隊，特別是商業團隊，以及能源技術團隊，在進入 2025 年時，他們非常高興能夠銷售新產品。

Keith Housum, Canaccord Genuity.

基思·胡蘇姆 (Keith Housum)，Canaccord Genuity。

I'd love if you can kind of dig in a little bit as to what's happening in your European business and when you expect those trends to potentially rebound.

如果您能深入了解您的歐洲業務正在發生的情況以及您預計這些趨勢何時可能反彈，我會很高興。

Yes. Thanks, George. So Europe has been kind of -- we were seeing trends earlier this year around portable generators mainly. I mean that was our -- again, we had some pretty tough comps from the prior year on the back of the Ukraine-Russia war, there were energy security issues, concerns around energy security that really drove portable generator sales higher in 2023. As we rounded 2024, those concerns after kind of a mild-ish winter, somewhat abated and we were kind of seeing struggles there.

是的。謝謝，喬治。所以歐洲一直是——我們今年早些時候看到的趨勢主要圍繞著便攜式發電機。我的意思是，這就是我們的——再說一遍，在烏克蘭-俄羅斯戰爭的背景下，我們在前一年有一些相當艱難的比較，存在能源安全問題，對能源安全的擔憂確實推動了2023 年便攜式發電機銷量的成長。

That has now expanded to include kind of the broader C&I complex of products in Europe as well. It's not all bad news for our international segment. We are seeing pockets of, I would say, surprising strength in Latin America, in particular, we've got a new team managing that business down there. I think we've done a nice job. They've done a nice job really tackling the market and improving our position there.

現在，這一範圍已擴大到包括歐洲更廣泛的工商業產品綜合體。對於我們的國際業務來說，這並不都是壞消息。我想說，我們在拉丁美洲看到了令人驚訝的實力，特別是我們有一個新團隊在那裡管理這項業務。我認為我們做得很好。他們在應對市場和提高我們的地位方面做得很好。

But broader Europe, Germany in particular, I mean, if we had to kind of pin it down to a particular country, not to call anyone out here, but Germany has really been a struggle. And it's an important market for our operations there. So I think it's something that I think everybody has seen the recent headlines.

但更廣泛的歐洲，特別是德國，我的意思是，如果我們必須將其歸結為某個特定國家，而不是召集任何人在這裡，但德國確實是一場鬥爭。這是我們在那裡開展業務的重要市場。所以我認為每個人都已經看到了最近的頭條新聞。

Even the automotive sector, in particular, in Germany is really struggling. Volkswagen announcing their first plant closures in Germany ever in something like 84 years or something like that, I think, was the headline. So I think that it's going to be a struggle in Europe, Mainland Europe for a bit until we see maybe the economic shift happened there.

即使是汽車產業，尤其是德國的汽車產業，也確實陷入困境。我想，大眾汽車宣布關閉德國工廠是 84 年來的第一家工廠，或類似的事情，這是頭條新聞。因此，我認為歐洲、歐洲大陸將會經歷一段時間的掙扎，直到我們看到那裡可能發生經濟轉變。

Hopefully, that happens sometime in 2025. I would tell you right now, we're probably going to see -- I would expect to see maybe a recovery in C&I domestically before we see a recovery in Europe. I just say I think that maybe is how the pacing will work. We're starting to see some green shoots domestically for telecom here in the US. I think rental is going to remain down.

希望這會在 2025 年的某個時候發生。我只是說我認為這也許就是節奏的運作方式。我們開始看到美國國內電信業的一些萌芽。我認為租金將繼續下降。

We were a little bit below our guide even for the third quarter in rental. The season hasn't been as strong. It wasn't a huge miss. But I think the rental companies are taking a little bit more of a wait-and-see approach. I don't know how much of that is based on the current election environment, just getting to the other side of that, whatever party ends up being in power here, but I think there is some trepidation around CapEx spending there.

即使在第三季度，我們的租金也略低於我們的指南。這個賽季的表現就沒那麼強勁。這並不是一個巨大的失誤。但我認為租賃公司更多的是採取觀望態度。我不知道其中有多少是基於當前的選舉環境，只是到了另一邊，無論哪個政黨最終在這裡掌權，但我認為那裡的資本支出存在一些擔憂。

And so I think Europe is going to be tough, probably for all of next year, would be my guess -- tougher anyway, again, offset by some pockets of strength in Latin America and maybe some other areas of the world.

因此，我認為歐洲將會很艱難，可能是明年全年，我的猜測是——無論如何，會再次變得更加艱難，但被拉丁美洲和世界其他一些地區的一些實力所抵消。

Mike Halloran, Baird.

麥克·哈洛倫，貝爾德。

I wasn't sure if that was lending -- you needed to hear the validation for you guys. So there's probably a couple of years to this, but could you place the activity you're seeing today in historical context, what kind of uplift are you seeing? How does that compare to history? And I'm asking from kind of two perspectives.

我不確定這是否是貸款——你們需要聽聽你們的驗證。因此，這可能需要幾年的時間，但是您能否將您今天看到的活動放在歷史背景下，您看到了什麼樣的提升？與歷史相比如何？我是從兩個角度來問的。

One, your penetration and awareness is much higher in these regions today than it was then maybe less of the penetration, but certainly the awareness. And so how is that manifesting when it comes to the activity levels that you're seeing -- but then secondarily, how is that awareness impacting non-impacted regions, if that makes sense. So both how are the regions tracking? How are the other regions tracking? Is there a spillover effect in place in some historical context as well, please?

第一，今天這些地區的滲透率和意識比當時高得多，可能滲透率較低，但意識肯定很高。那麼，當涉及到你所看到的活動水平時，這種情況是如何體現的——但其次，這種意識如何影響未受影響的地區，如果這有意義的話。那麼這些地區的追蹤情況如何？其他地區的追蹤情況如何？請問在某些歷史背景下是否也存在溢出效應？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. Yes, I think it's a great question, actually. And when you put it in perspective, there's a couple of things. I think -- so the states that were impacted here, and I think there's six or seven states that bore the brunt of Helene and Milton those states actually oadly enough, are slightly below the national average of 6% pen rate for home standby.

是的。謝謝，麥克。是的，實際上我認為這是一個很好的問題。當你正確看待它時，有幾件事。我認為，這裡受到影響的州，我認為有六到七個州首當其衝，這些州實際上已經足夠了，它們的家庭備用筆率略低於全國平均水平 6%。

So when we just talking HSB for a second, while they're not materially below like maybe like California as per the -- as compared to the national average, they're still below. So in terms of the upside, I think there are -- the interesting thing is we have a good dealer representation in those markets because they are markets we've sold into in the past.

因此，當我們談論 HSB 時，雖然它們並不像加州那樣大幅低於全國平均水平，但它們仍然低於全國平均水平。因此，就積極方面而言，我認為有趣的是，我們在這些市場中擁有良好的經銷商代表，因為它們是我們過去銷售過的市場。

Obviously, Texas has had a number of high-priority events. So barrel hits -- that said, we've added a lot of dealers in Texas. We said of the 400 dealers we've added over the last year, a good chunk of those are coming out of Texas. We would expect to see in the fourth quarter dealer counts improve probably coming out of Florida and the Carolinas.

顯然，德克薩斯州有許多高度優先的活動。所以桶命中 - 也就是說，我們在德克薩斯州增加了很多經銷商。我們說，去年我們增加了 400 家經銷商，其中很大一部分來自德州。我們預計第四季度來自佛羅裡達州和卡羅來納州的經銷商數量可能會增加。

Those are going to grow. But I think just going back to the core of your question, putting it in perspective, so we've always said these events are -- can provide between $50 million to $100 million impact in the current year, depending on the timing of the event, right?

這些將會增長。但我認為回到你問題的核心，正確地看待它，所以我們總是說這些事件可以在今年帶來 5000 萬至 1 億美元的影響，具體取決於事件發生的時間， 正確的？

And so the later timing of the event in the year, the less of that $50 million to $100 million you're going to be able to get. So if you add up all three events, that would put your range somewhere between $150 million to $300 million upside. We said that the upside we're going to experience this year is around $200 million from these events, right?

因此，今年活動的舉辦時間越晚，您能獲得的 5,000 萬至 1 億美元的獎金就越少。因此，如果將所有三項賽事加起來，您的上漲幅度將在 1.5 億至 3 億美元之間。我們說過，今年我們將從這些活動中獲得約 2 億美元的收益，對嗎？

So I think we're kind of right where we think we should be with some of that probably spilling over into 2025. And we've got a lot of time between now and then before we give kind of proper formal guidance around that, we're going to watch a lot of things, but we're ramping our production. So what you're going to see in Q4 based on our guidance update is really based on what we can get out of the factories in Q4.

因此，我認為我們的想法是正確的，其中一些可能會延續到 2025 年。提高產量。因此，根據我們的指導更新，您在第四季度看到的內容實際上是基於我們可以從第四季度工廠獲得的東西。

It's a combination of our supply chain in our factories. I will say this from a historical perspective, we've added a lot of capacity, right? So when we brought online Trenton, South Carolina, which is a mirror image of our Whitewater, Wisconsin facility, that really effectively doubled our HSB capacity. So our ability to ramp more quickly, I think, is important, right?

這是我們工廠供應鏈的結合。我從歷史的角度來說，我們增加了很多容量，對嗎？因此，當我們將南卡羅來納州特倫頓（威斯康辛州懷特沃特工廠的鏡像）上線時，這確實有效地將我們的 HSB 容量提高了一倍。因此，我認為我們更快提升的能力很重要，對嗎？

So lead times today for these products are around four to eight weeks, depending on the node. And that's probably as high as they'll probably get. As we ramp our production throughout the quarter here, we think we're going to catch that. And we think we'll bring that into a more normal looking place as we get into 2025.

因此，目前這些產品的交貨時間約為四到八週，具體取決於節點。這可能是他們能得到的最高水準。當我們在整個季度提高產量時，我們認為我們會抓住這一點。我們認為，進入 2025 年，我們會將其帶入一個更正常的狀態。

Now that's, of course, assuming there aren't any other major events that happen, right, between now and then the -- obviously, the extreme nature of these types of events and the weather and just the rapid intensification of these hurricanes and some of the things that we're seeing in terms of the extremities of air temperature and water temperature, I think is important.

當然，假設從現在到那時沒有發生任何其他重大事件，顯然，這些類型的事件和天氣的極端性質，以及這些颶風和一些颶風的迅速加劇我認為我們所看到的極端氣溫和水溫非常重要。

So I think putting it in perspective though, we're able to ramp quicker. I think that what we've seen out of these events kind of is right down the middle of the fairway and what we would have expected. We're encouraged by the fact that we do have good dealer representation in the markets, and I think our brand is well represented in these markets as well.

所以我認為，從長遠來看，我們能夠更快地發展。我認為我們從這些賽事中看到的情況就在球道中間，也是我們所期望的。我們在市場上擁有良好的經銷商代表，這一事實令我們感到鼓舞，而且我認為我們的品牌在這些市場上也有很好的代表。

And you asked one other part of that question, Mike, which was the spillover effect of the areas outside of the markets impacted by this. I think interestingly enough, if you just look at October here when we look at home consultations, we're seeing a nice lift outside of those six or seven states that were impacted by these events this year. So I would say it's more broadly impacting our demand, which is great.

麥克，你問了這個問題的另一部分，那就是受此影響的市場以外領域的外溢效應。我認為有趣的是，如果你只看十月份的家庭諮詢，我們會發現除了今年受這些事件影響的六、七個州之外，情況也有不錯的提升。所以我想說，這對我們的需求產生了更廣泛的影響，這很好。

I think, in fact, outside of Canada, I think every other region in the US was an easier comp, but Canada was a tougher comp from last year. So -- but every other region so far this quarter, we saw nice growth. And in fact, I would -- just one last point on this. I mean, October is not done yet. We still got today to go. But October is likely to be a record month for in-home consultations for us.

我認為，事實上，除了加拿大之外，我認為美國其他所有地區的比賽都比較容易，但加拿大的比賽比去年更艱難。所以，但本季迄今為止的所有其他地區，我們都看到了良好的成長。事實上，我想──這只是最後一點。我的意思是，十月還沒結束。今天我們還得走。但十月可能是我們家庭諮詢創紀錄的月份。

And that is -- I think that's an important data point as we think about not only the impact of Q4 as we've laid out here this morning, but also the impact on the continued awareness of the category. And as we kind of build that new and higher baseline for the category as we go into 2025.

那就是 - 我認為這是一個重要的數據點，因為我們不僅考慮了我們今天早上在這裡列出的第四季度的影響，而且還考慮了對該類別持續認知的影響。進入 2025 年，我們會為該類別建立新的、更高的基準。

Jeff Hammond, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jeff Hammond，KeyBanc 資本市場。

So maybe just back on clean energy. Can you just talk about what you think is really differentiated in the new product and just the initial feedback you're getting any kind of early distribution partner wins? And just an update on the inverter intro timing.

所以也許只是回到清潔能源。您能否談談您認為新產品真正與眾不同的地方以及您從任何類型的早期分銷合作夥伴中獲得的初步反饋？只是逆變器介紹時間的更新。

Yes. It's great, Jeff. I appreciate that. So the new product, PowerCell 2, obviously, it's basically -- it's a ground-up redesign of the platform. So the acquired platform from Pika days when we acquired that back in 2019, I believe it was. We went through kind of our ups and downs of that platform, have been working very hard over the last 1.5 years with our teams.

是的。太棒了，傑夫。我很欣賞這一點。因此，新產品 PowerCell 2 顯然基本上是對該平台的徹底重新設計。因此，當我們在 2019 年收購 Pika 時，我相信是這樣的。我們在這個平台上經歷了一些起起落落，在過去的 1.5 年裡一直與我們的團隊一起工作。

We've invested tremendously, as you can see, obviously, the 350 to 400 basis point drag that we talked about on EBITDA margins. It's a heavy lift here. But the differentiating factors of that platform. So our focus -- and this is really going back to the first-generation product, we really positioned ourselves from a storage standpoint of being focused on resiliency.

正如您所看到的，我們顯然進行了大量投資，我們談到的 EBITDA 利潤率受到了 350 到 400 個基點的拖累。這裡的舉重很重。但該平台的差異化因素。所以我們的重點——這實際上回到了第一代產品，我們真正從儲存的角度定位自己，專注於彈性。

The product, of course, can take care of the time shifting needs that you need when you've got solar attached to it and you're trying to store product from a savings standpoint. But what we really felt that people wanted, what homeowners want is if they have a battery, they want it to last some period of time if they do have an outage. And so the first generation product was the largest capacity battery in market.

當然，當您連接了太陽能並且您試圖從節省的角度儲存產品時，該產品可以滿足您所需的時移需求。但我們真正感覺到人們想要的，房主想要的是，如果他們有電池，他們希望它在停電時持續一段時間。因此第一代產品是市場上容量最大的電池。

The second-generation product here will remain the largest capacity battery in product. But we've also done some other cool things to focus on some other important upgrades there around -- just around improved continuous and peak power output, which allows you to cover more of your house at once when there is an outage, so you're not limited to having to make choices about what you get -- what's backed up by the storage device and what's not. And that's kind of at the storage level, right? So that's that product, I'll call those the product enhancements.

這裡的第二代產品仍將是產品中容量最大的電池。但我們還做了一些其他很酷的事情，專注於周圍的其他一些重要升級 - 只是圍繞改進的連續和峰值功率輸出，這使您可以在停電時立即覆蓋更多的房子，所以您'並不局限於必須對所獲得的內容做出選擇－儲存裝置備份什麼，不備份什麼。這就是儲存層級的情況，對嗎？這就是該產品，我將其稱為產品增強功能。

I think more broadly, though, Jeff, is really the expansion of this concept of an ecosystem, and you'll see some other companies going after this, but I think this was core to our thesis in acquiring Ecobee is the technology that Ecobee brings in not only the HMI, the human interface, the UX portion of the device, right?

傑夫，我認為更廣泛地說，這實際上是生態系統概念的擴展，你會看到其他一些公司也在追求這一點，但我認為這是我們收購Ecobee 論文的核心，是Ecobee 帶來的技術不僅是 HMI、人機介面、設備的 UX 部分，對嗎？

They've got a great kind of front end in terms of the user experience the app experience, the device experience, it's high end, it's premium. And it's a truly smart thermostat. There's a lot of capability within that device. We're going to leverage the capability within that device to control the entire ecosystem and create an experience for the end customer that really takes, I think, not only savings but takes resiliency to the next level, right?

他們在用戶體驗、應用程式體驗、設備體驗方面擁有出色的前端，它是高端的、優質的。它是一個真正的智慧恆溫器。該設備有很多功能。我們將利用該設備內的功能來控制整個生態系統，並為最終客戶創造一種體驗，我認為，這種體驗不僅可以節省成本，而且可以將彈性提升到一個新的水平，對吧？

So the most prime example we can share with you there is if you take the example of you have an outage, a utility outage. And if you have the Ecobee thermostat/Energy Hub at the center of your ecosystem, you have a power cell to device. You have a generator perhaps, you maybe have an EV charger from Wallbox. You have all of these devices that are now going to be integrated onto the platform, the Ecobee Smart Hub is going to be making choices for you about how to preserve the maximum amount of duration for your battery.

因此，我們可以與您分享的最典型的例子是，如果您遇到停電，公用事業停電。如果您的生態系統中心有 Ecobee 恆溫器/能源中心，那麼您的設備就有一個電池。您也許有發電機，也許有 Wallbox 的電動車充電器。您擁有的所有這些設備現在都將整合到平台上，Ecobee Smart Hub 將為您選擇如何保持電池的最大持續時間。

So it might if it's a cold day, it might turn down your thermostat a few degrees or if it's a hot day, it might turn up thermostat a few days, giving you a couple of precious more hours of backup -- and you don't even have to kind of be aware of that, it will obviously have work within parameters of comfort that you've set or that it knows. It's learned from your behaviors.

因此，如果天氣寒冷，它可能會將您的恆溫器調低幾度，或者如果天氣炎熱，它可能會將恆溫器調高幾天，為您提供寶貴的多幾個小時的備用時間——而您卻沒有這樣做。這是從你的行為中學到的。

But it also can make those choices. If you're not home, it can definitely adjust the thermostat to a greater degree, again, to preserve that duration. It can make sure that the EV charging system is not charging your vehicle during an outage, right? You don't want to take the precious energy that's stored in your power cell system, you don't want to use that to put that into your vehicle during an outage, you want to preserve that.

但它也可以做出這些選擇。如果您不在家，它肯定可以更大程度地調節恆溫器，以保持持續時間。它可以確保電動車充電系統在停電期間不會為您的車輛充電，對嗎？您不想佔用電池系統中儲存的寶貴能量，也不想在停電期間將其用於車輛，您想保留它。

So these different kind of scenarios that are going to play out and the complexities around those scenarios that will play out. And as the ecosystem grows with more content, I think it's going to become even more clearly evident how important that is to have a central brain. In effect, what we're creating here is a mini micro grid. It's a personal microgrid for your home, right, with a multitude of assets that you can tie into that micro grid but that micro grid can be optimized for resiliency, it can be optimized for cost.

因此，將會出現這些不同類型的場景，以及圍繞這些場景的複雜性。隨著生態系的內容越來越多，我認為擁有一個中央大腦的重要性將會變得更加明顯。實際上，我們在這裡創建的是一個迷你微網格。這是一個適合您家庭的個人微電網，對吧，您可以將大量資產連接到該微電網中，但該微電網可以針對彈性進行最佳化，也可以針對成本進行最佳化。

It can be optimized for conservation, for comfort, right? So all of those different settings can be prioritized and those prioritizations can change. So I think we demonstrated that at RES in a very visceral way in our booth, in our show booth. And I think that, that was, for me, it was an eye-opening experience, I went to the show in engaging with customers and distribution partners there, they really understood very quickly the value of that. And I think that that is going to be, for us, I think that's going to set us apart -- you couple that with our brand and then you put together with that our kind of our marketing capabilities here and our ability to build and develop distribution.

它可以針對保護和舒適度進行最佳化，對吧？因此，所有這些不同的設定都可以確定優先級，並且這些優先級可以改變。所以我認為我們在 RES 展位上以一種非常發自內心的方式展示了這一點。我認為，對我來說，這是一次令人大開眼界的經歷，我去展會與那裡的客戶和分銷合作夥伴互動，他們很快就明白了它的價值。我認為，對我們來說，這將使我們與眾不同——你將其與我們的品牌結合起來，然後將我們的行銷能力以及我們的建立和開發能力結合在一起分配。

And I really like how we're positioned as we go forward. timing on the products real quick. So PowerCell 2, we were going to be shipping product here. We wanted to be in market at the very end of the fourth quarter. That's probably shifted about six weeks into February a little bit. Four to six weeks. I think we're just putting the finishing touches on our customer field trials there and hope to be in market kind of in that early to mid-Q1, and then the micro is still slated for early second half of next year. So that product is pacing ahead as well.

我真的很喜歡我們前進時的定位。產品的時機非常快。所以 PowerCell 2，我們將在這裡運送產品。我們希望在第四季末進入市場。這可能會在二月的六週左右發生一些變化。四到六週。我認為我們只是對客戶現場試驗進行收尾工作，並希望在第一季初到中期進入市場，然後微型機仍定於明年下半年初上市。因此該產品也在不斷向前發展。

Brian Drab, William Blair.

布萊恩德拉布、威廉布萊爾。

I'm just looking at the, hey, I'm just looking at the timing of the hurricanes and Colin and Melton. I mean, there's still obviously significant outages in several states, even in mid-October. And there's a cycle time to getting these home standbys installed, obviously, and getting to the dealers and all those conversations need to happen.

我只是在看，嘿，我只是在看颶風、科林和梅爾頓的時間。我的意思是，即使在十月中旬，幾個州仍然明顯出現嚴重停電。顯然，安裝這些家庭備用電源、聯絡經銷商以及所有這些對話都需要一個週期時間。

I'm just trying to figure out why even half of the demand related to those recent hurricanes would be fulfilled in 2024. It seems like this is -- I mean, you've only had like a couple of weeks since these people even got their power back on. I don't know, it just feels like just the beginning of a wave of demand rather than you're kind of making it sound like, I think, like a lot of it will be satisfied in 2024.

我只是想弄清楚為什麼與最近的颶風相關的需求中有一半會在 2024 年得到滿足。電源又恢復了。我不知道，這只是感覺只是一波需求浪潮的開始，而不是聽起來像是，我認為，許多需求將在 2024 年得到滿足。

Yes, I think that's a great question, Brian. I think it's one that bears a little bit further explanation. I mean, clearly -- so at least here in 2024, our ability to fulfill that demand is going to be gated, as I said, by what we can do from a supply chain and operations standpoint. And that's with a pretty significant ramp. We actually started ramping after barrel in early July.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的問題，布萊恩。我認為這是一個需要進一步解釋的問題。我的意思是，很明顯，至少在 2024 年，我們滿足這項需求的能力將受到我們從供應鏈和營運角度所能做的事情的限制。這是一個非常顯著的斜坡。事實上，我們從七月初就開始逐桶增產。

Yes, that was early July. So we got the benefit of that. We kind of got ahead of it a little bit. In terms of prioritizing with our supply chain, both portables, kind of getting our portable generator inventories in a better place ahead of the season and then obviously, with the home standby ramp, we were starting to -- we were able to begin execution on that maybe a little earlier because of that early season event.

是的，那是七月初。所以我們得到了好處。我們有點領先了一點。就我們的供應鏈的優先順序而言，無論是便攜式發電機還是便攜式發電機，都可以在季節到來之前將我們的便攜式發電機庫存放在更好的位置，然後顯然，隨著家庭備用坡度的增加，我們開始- 我們能夠開始執行由於賽季初的賽事，可能會提前一點。

I think that put us on alert that -- and obviously, all the predictions were for a pretty active season. And then nothing really happened after that until we got Helene in late September. So I think it was a matter of being able to get that ramp going and now we're going to continue in the back half of the year. The question of whether the demand -- I think the important thing to note here is Consistent with prior events, we've always seen a surge in demand followed by kind of a pullback to a new and higher baseline level, right?

我認為這讓我們警惕——顯然，所有的預測都是針對一個非常活躍的賽季。此後什麼事也沒發生，直到九月底我們找到了海倫。所以我認為這是一個能夠讓這個斜坡繼續下去的問題，現在我們將在今年下半年繼續下去。需求是否——我認為這裡需要注意的重要一點是，與之前的事件一致，我們總是看到需求激增，然後回落到新的更高的基線水平，對嗎？

I think the question is the surge in demand, how long does it last? And what is the pullback -- when does the pullback happen and where does that new and higher baseline level kind of emerge. And those are kind of an answer yet at this point, and I think we're not prepared, at least on this call, to do that because to your point, to an effect, it is early, right? I mean, it is -- we're not even done with October, and we're still talking about how we've seen IHCs, this will be our strongest month ever with IHC power outages since we started tracking them the most outage hours that we've seen from an impact standpoint, certainly going back since 2010. So I think it is something that when we think about the future demand, we want to see how things play out here for the balance of the year.

我認為問題是需求的激增，會持續多久？什麼是回調——回調何時發生以及新的更高基線水平在哪裡出現。這些都是目前的答案，我認為我們還沒有準備好，至少在這次電話會議上，因為就你的觀點而言，現在還為時過早，對吧？我的意思是，我們甚至還沒有結束 10 月份的工作，我們仍在談論我們如何看待 IHC，這將是自我們開始跟踪 IHC 停電時間最長以來最強勁的一個月我們從影響的角度看到了這一點，當然可以追溯到2010 年。

Again, it's an election cycle year. We've got an interest rate environment that's higher today than maybe historically, when we've been in the category, I don't know that we've had a number of -- I don't know that we've had very good proxy periods to kind of compare it to there. So in terms of the impact on kind of how people think about a project for their home, there's a lot of homeowners, I think that might tell you they feel a little bit stuck in their current home because of where their current mortgage rates are at.

再說一次，今年是選舉週期年。我們今天的利率環境可能比歷史上的要高，當我們處於這一類別時，我不知道我們有過多少——我不知道我們有過非常多的利率環境。進行比較。因此，就人們如何看待自己的房屋項目的影響而言，有很多房主，我認為這可能會告訴你，他們感覺有點被困在當前的房屋中，因為他們目前的抵押貸款利率在哪裡。

So as that shifts and it hasn't shifted materially yet, even with a 50 basis point decline from the Fed hasn't really read through completely to a decrease in 30-year mortgage rates. So at least not to that extent. So we're watching that. and we'll see what -- where that goes as well because I think that's another kind of factor as we think about this. But look, these are -- it's an area of the country, the Southeast, that I think is understanding the importance of needing a resiliency plan.

因此，隨著這種情況發生變化，而且還沒有發生實質變化，即使聯準會降息 50 個基點，也沒有真正完全體現出 30 年期抵押貸款利率的下降。所以至少沒有到那個程度。所以我們正在關注這一點。我們也會看看會發生什麼，因為我認為這是我們考慮這個問題的另一個因素。但是你看，這些是該國東南部的一個地區，我認為該地區正在了解需要彈性計劃的重要性。

And I think our products are the right answer for that. It's just a question of timing, again, around kind of that demand peak, where it happens, when it happens, how far does it come off of that peak and where does that new and higher level of baseline demand emerge.

我認為我們的產品是正確的答案。這只是一個時間問題，同樣，圍繞著需求峰值，它發生在哪裡，何時發生，它離峰值有多遠，以及新的更高水平的基線需求出現在哪裡。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

Jerry. Aaron York, I'm wondering if you could just talk about the level of in-home consultations that you're seeing based on web traffic. It looks like you're setting records in terms of interest in your products. Is that translating into home consultations. And with the revised residential standby guidance, it looks like you're not counting on a sequential pickup in the standby business 4Q versus I'm wondering, is that right? And can you talk about that because normally, seasonally, you do see higher shipment rates 4Q versus 3Q?

傑瑞.亞倫約克（Aaron York），我想知道您是否可以談談您根據網路流量看到的家庭諮詢的水平。看來您正在創造人們對您產品的興趣的記錄。這是轉化為家庭諮商嗎？根據修訂後的住宅備用指南，您似乎不指望第四季度備用業務會連續回升，我想知道，對嗎？您能否談談這一點，因為通常情況下，從季節性角度來看，您確實會看到第四季度的發貨率高於第三季度？

Yes. Thanks, Jerry. On the IHC, yes, I mean, again, October here, we're not completed yet. We got one more day, but we're going to be at a record level. And we think that, that -- when you look at 3Q, as we mentioned, that was --

是的。謝謝，傑瑞。關於 IHC，是的，我的意思是，再說一次，十月，我們還沒完成。我們還有一天的時間，但我們將達到創紀錄的水平。我們認為，當你看第三季時，正如我們所提到的，那就是——

How portable they're going to go down Q3 to Q4 and home Sam's going to go up as we ramp production course is sort of matched by the portable decline.

他們的便攜性將在第三季到第四季下降，而隨著我們提高生產過程，家庭薩姆的便攜性將會上升，這在某種程度上與便攜性的下降相匹配。

Yes. So home standby is going to increase and portable is obviously, unless we have so a lot of -- we sold a lot of portable generators. Frankly, even if we have another major event here anytime soon our inventory levels are quite low. So we're in the middle of replenishing those stock levels. So it's really a shift between higher home standby lower portables for Q4 when you're going trying to compare the Q3 to Q4 run rate. .

是的。因此，家庭備用電源將會增加，而便攜式發電機顯然會增加，除非我們有很多——我們售出了許多便攜式發電機。坦白說，即使我們很快就會在這裡舉辦另一場重大活動，我們的庫存水準也相當低。因此，我們正在補充這些庫存水準。因此，當您嘗試比較第三季和第四季的運行速率時，第四季度實際上是較高的家庭待機與較低的便攜式設備之間的轉變。 。

Kashy Harrison, Piper Sandler.

卡希·哈里森，派珀·桑德勒。

I'll keep in mind to the C&I side of the business. Can you help us think through whether the implied 4Q C&I numbers have essentially stabilized or whether based on what you're seeing on cycle times in the US than Europe and rental and everything else, that there could be some more risk? I'm just trying to get a sense of if the business has in aggregate bottomed by your measures? Or if you think there could still be some softness as we think about the coming quarters qualitatively?

我會牢記業務的 C&I 方面。您能否幫助我們思考一下隱含的第四季度C&I 數據是否已基本穩定，或者根據您在美國的周期時間（而不是歐洲）以及租賃和其他所有方面所看到的情況，是否可能存在更多風險？我只是想了解一下，根據您的衡量標準，企業整體是否已經觸底？或者，如果您認為當我們對未來幾季進行定性思考時，仍然可能會出現一些疲軟的情況？

Yes, Kashy, thanks for that. I appreciate the question. So I think as we said on the last call, actually, we kind of viewed Q2, Q3 is the bottom for telecom. We don't see that pulling back. In fact, we're seeing some green shoots and Q4 would contemplate the guidance we gave this morning would contemplate that, that actually improved slightly Q3 into Q4.

是的，卡什，謝謝你。我很欣賞這個問題。因此，我認為正如我們在上次電話會議中所說，實際上，我們認為第二季、第三季是電信業的底部。我們沒有看到這種退縮。事實上，我們看到了一些萌芽，第四季會考慮我們今天早上給出的指導，實際上第三季到第四季略有改善。

I think on the rental market side, as I said in a previous question, we actually saw that be a little weaker than we would have hoped in Q3. So normally, that's a little bit of more of a seasonal business for us. We see lighting towers from that season is when we kind of get to this time of year, that has not played out. Again, it's not materially off of our expectations, but it was disappointing to see kind of maybe further weakness than we expected there.

我認為在租賃市場方面，正如我在上一個問題中所說，我們實際上看到第三季的情況比我們希望的要弱一些。通常情況下，這對我們來說更像是季節性業務。我們看到那個季節的燈塔，就是我們到了每年這個時候的時候，那還沒結束。同樣，這並沒有實質地超出我們的預期，但令人失望的是，看到的疲軟程度可能比我們預期的還要進一步。

But it's -- I think in terms of bottoming out, it feels like that is probably kind of maybe where we're at. I just -- the question -- the fundamental question on rental is kind of where does that go kind of next year, right? And I think our views on rental right now without additional kind of direct guidance from the major rental companies that we serve. We haven't been given any kind of guide yet on next year's CapEx spend in our categories.

但我認為，就觸底反彈而言，感覺這可能就是我們所處的位置。我只是 - 問題 - 關於租金的基本問題是明年會去哪裡，對嗎？我認為我們現在對租賃的看法沒有得到我們所服務的主要租賃公司的額外直接指導。我們還沒有得到任何關於明年我們類別的資本支出的指導。

But we would believe at this point that's probably going to remain pretty muted throughout 2025. I think telecom, as we said, those green shoots, we're hoping to see continued improvement. I think when you think about our core industrial distributor channel, we've been working to catch our lead times. We've been executing quite well operationally, but we've been seeing book-to-bill rates that are under 1.

但我們目前認為，到 2025 年，這種情況可能會保持相當平靜。我認為，當您想到我們的核心工業分銷商管道時，我們一直在努力趕上交貨時間。我們的營運執行得相當不錯，但訂單出貨率低於 1。

And that -- so as we catch that backlog and we've reduced our lead times, that could be an area where we see that pull back a little bit. Now quotings remain resilient. So the challenge we're seeing is that the quote to order time line is pushing out. So we're seeing projects get delayed. And this is something that can happen in this part of the cycle, especially if you have high rates persisting.

當我們發現積壓情況並減少交貨時間時，我們可能會看到這方面的情況有所回落。現在報價仍保持彈性。因此，我們面臨的挑戰是報價訂單時間線正在推遲。所以我們看到項目被推遲。這是周期的這一部分可能發生的事情，特別是如果利率持續較高的話。

So perhaps if maybe the uncertainty around the election is taken away, and we see rates continue to come down as they are projected to come down into next year. It might be a very temporary thing that we see there. It might just be related more to us catching our backlog and bringing lead times down. I think for us, one of the other fundamental questions is Europe, although I think when we think about that, we have, again, Mainland Europe, I think that doesn't feel very good.

因此，如果選舉的不確定性被消除，我們將看到利率繼續下降，預計明年會下降。我們在那裡看到的可能是非常暫時的事情。這可能更多地與我們處理積壓訂單和縮短交貨時間有關。我認為對我們來說，另一個基本問題是歐洲，儘管我認為當我們想到這一點時，我們再次看到歐洲大陸，我認為這感覺不太好。

But I see other markets outside of that, that we've been seeing pretty decent -- actually nice growth in Latin America, as I said, some in the Middle East. We've seen a little bit there. And we have some new products coming to market next year. We've got some new partnerships there in that business.

但我看到除此之外的其他市場，正如我所說，我們在拉丁美洲看到了相當不錯的成長，實際上在中東也有一些成長。我們在那裡看到了一點。明年我們將會有一些新產品上市。我們在該業務領域建立了一些新的合作夥伴關係。

So I would like to believe, at least kind of the early read here is, I think we've maybe hopefully found the bottom in terms of our European operations, our international operations. Even if Europe may soften further, I think that will be, at this point, at least fully offset or more than offset perhaps by some of the other regions of the world where we have operations, and we have opportunities.

所以我願意相信，至少這裡的早期解讀是，我認為我們可能已經在歐洲業務和國際業務方面找到了底部。即使歐洲可能進一步軟化，我認為，在這一點上，這至少會被我們有業務、有機會的世界其他一些地區完全抵消或超過抵消。

Stephen Gengaro, Stifel.

史蒂芬·根加羅，斯蒂菲爾。

So a quick one for me. When we think about the margin progression that you've seen and relative maybe to the prior guidance, but even just relative throughout the year. Can you talk about or give us some sense for how much is mix and how much is sort of cost out and efficiency gains that you've been able to achieve?

對我來說這是一個快速的過程。當我們考慮您所看到的利潤率進展時，可能與先前的指導有關，但甚至只是相對於全年而言。您能否談談或讓我們了解您已經實現了多少混合以及多少成本支出和效率提升？

Yes. Stephen, this is York. So gross margins improved roughly 5% year-over-year. We've been seeing that for quite some time now over a number of quarters. This particular quarter, I'd say about say, 40% to 50% of that 5% was mix related. So obviously, as home standby generators increase in mix, we're going to get a nice bump in margins.

是的。史蒂芬，這是約克。因此，毛利率比去年同期提高了約 5%。我們在幾個季度中已經看到這種情況很久了。在這個特定的季度，我想說，這 5% 中的 40% 到 50% 與混合相關。顯然，隨著家庭備用發電機組合的增加，我們的利潤率將會大幅提高。

So that means around 50% to 60% was price cost. So we're still on a year-over-year basis, still seeing the benefits of lower input costs coming through the P&L as we turn through that higher cost of inventory or as we sell through that in the past, and now we're -- now that's not running through the P&L.

所以這意味著大約 50% 到 60% 是價格成本。因此，我們仍然在逐年基礎上，當我們克服較高的庫存成本或過去銷售時，仍然看到透過損益表降低投入成本的好處，現在我們——現在這並沒有貫穿損益表。

And then logistics costs, we continue to do a good job in terms of bringing material to the plants and getting out to our customers. So we continue to run our factories more efficiently as -- in particular, the home standby volume picks up. So price cost has been favorable for a number of quarters, continues to be in Q3, like I said, around 50% to 60% of that year-over-year increases price cost.

然後是物流成本，我們在將材料運送到工廠和運送給客戶方面繼續做得很好。因此，我們繼續更有效率地運作我們的工廠，尤其是家庭待機量的增加。因此，價格成本在多個季度中一直是有利的，在第三季度仍然如此，正如我所說，價格成本同比增長約 50% 至 60%。

What's interesting is if you look from, say, like now look ahead from Q3 to Q4 now sequentially now, not talking year-over-year but sequentially. I'd probably say a lot of that price cost is now running through our P&L here in Q3. I mean we carded, what, 40% gross margins in Q3. That's the best we've seen since 2010.

有趣的是，如果你從現在開始，從第三季度到第四季度，按順序展望，不是逐年談論，而是按順序談論。我可能會說，大部分價格成本現在都在我們第三季的損益表中。我的意思是，我們第三季的毛利率達到了 40%。這是自 2010 年以來我們所見過的最好的情況。

So we're feeling good in terms of where we're at from our gross margin profile and that we believe will continue into Q4. And so I'd say, sequentially, the price/cost scenario has played out, but year-over-year, we'll still see benefits.

因此，我們對毛利率狀況感覺良好，我們相信這種情況將持續到第四季度。因此，我想說，價格/成本情況已經發生，但與去年同期相比，我們仍然會看到好處。

Keith Housum, Northcoast Research.

Keith Housum，北海岸研究中心。

In terms of like the power outages and the driving of demand, all focuses have been on HSB. But touch on, is there any opportunity for growth within C&I or the beyond standby batteries in terms of those guys benefiting from when you have these massive storms come through?

從停電和需求拉動來看，所有的焦點都集中在HSB。但順便說一句，對於那些在經歷這些巨大風暴時受益的人來說，工商業或備用電池領域是否有任何成長的機會？

Yes. Thanks, Keith, and I appreciate you bringing that up because I probably should have mentioned that when we're talking about C&I on one of the last questions. Absolutely. When we get outage events, I mean, longer-term trends, the outages drive awareness, whether you're a small business owner or whether you are a wireless telephone network operator that has thousands and thousands of sites, hundreds of thousands of sites, you realize very quickly if you haven't invested in a backup plan, you realize the impact that can have on your operations and on your revenue streams on your continuity of operations, maybe spoilage of inventory that can happen.

是的。謝謝，基思，我很感謝你提出這個問題，因為當我們在最後一個問題上討論 C&I 時，我可能應該提到這一點。絕對地。當我們遇到中斷事件時，我的意思是，長期趨勢，中斷會提高人們的意識，無論您是小企業主還是擁有成千上萬個站點、數十萬個站點的無線電話網絡運營商，您很快就會意識到，如果您沒有投資備份計劃，您就會意識到這可能會對您的營運、收入流、營運連續性產生影響，甚至可能會發生庫存損壞。

And so we just -- we also know that historically, for us, and when we look at our business, that usually is more of a delayed reaction. And the point -- the reason for that really is that in the business world, those are business decisions. They're usually CapEx budgets. There are approval processes. It takes time to get those projects going.

因此，我們也知道，從歷史上看，對我們來說，當我們審視我們的業務時，這通常會更多是一種延遲反應。關鍵是——原因實際上是在商業世界中，這些都是商業決策。它們通常是資本支出預算。有審批流程。推動這些項目需要時間。

So we would expect, as historically would follow on is sometime late -- kind of in that four-quarter cycle basis, you would start to see some demand start to pull through from those events directly related to those events in the affected areas and perhaps indirectly affected indirectly impacted areas outside of that, when you're talking about a national telecom operator who is now going to allocate more dollars in the budget process for hardening of networks, right?

因此，我們預計，正如歷史上會發生的那樣，在第四個季度的周期中，您會開始看到一些需求開始從與受影響地區的事件直接相關的事件中拉出來，也許間接影響除此之外，當您談論一家國家電信運營商時，該運營商現在將在預算過程中分配更多資金用於強化網絡，對吧？

So they put more dollars aside for purchases of generators or storage devices -- those things definitely are things that we see historically. And that also, I think, could be an offset to any potential longer-term weakness in kind of the core industrial C&I markets that we're currently seeing. We think those are fleeting. We've seen these cycles before, and I think you bring up a really good point.

因此，他們留出更多的錢來購買發電機或儲存設備——這些東西肯定是我們歷史上看到的東西。我認為，這也可能抵消我們目前看到的核心工業 C&I 市場任何潛在的長期疲軟。我們認為這些都是轉瞬即逝的。我們以前見過這些週期，我認為你提出了一個非常好的觀點。

As soon as you get kind of an active period of events like this, that definitely gets people on notice and brings it more to the forefront from a business planning standpoint, from a disaster planning standpoint, continuity of operations ending plan regulatory standpoint, all of those things come to the front of the line.

一旦出現這樣的活動活躍期，肯定會引起人們的注意，並從業務規劃的角度、災難規劃的角度、運營的連續性結束計劃監管的角度，將其更多地帶到最前沿。隊伍的前面。

Jordan Levy, Truist Securities.

喬丹·利維 (Jordan Levy)，Truist 證券公司。

We've talked before about the percentage of the HSB category that finance or I think your program with Synchrony. I think you said it's around 20% of dealer network sales or so. I'm just curious how you think about the potential to ever kind of expand that financing optionality on HSB as more customers start to think through power quality and outage activity sort of issues?

我們之前討論過資助 HSB 類別的百分比，或者我認為您的 Synchrony 計劃。我想你說過這大約佔經銷商網路銷售額的 20% 左右。我只是好奇，隨著越來越多的客戶開始考慮電能品質和停電活動等問題，您如何看待擴大 HSB 融資選擇的潛力？

Yes. No, this is York, Jordan. Definitely having financing is -- I mean, price in general is always a barrier to driving close rates higher financing as a way to sort of break through that challenge that you might have in terms of closing a deal.

是的。不，這是約旦的約克。毫無疑問，融資是——我的意思是，總體而言，價格始終是推動成交率更高的障礙，而融資是克服在達成交易方面可能遇到的挑戰的一種方式。

I know for a fact in 2025, we're going to be doing some -- we're going to be ramping up that -- the financing initiatives throughout the dealer channel, and it's going to be a big focus throughout 2025, just like it has been in 2024 here. So yes, no, it's -- I agree. We agree with you that, that will be an important aspect to trying to drive close rates higher.

我知道，到 2025 年，我們將在整個經銷商通路中採取一些融資舉措，這將成為整個 2025 年的一大焦點，就像現在已經是 2024 年了。所以是的，不，是——我同意。我們同意您的觀點，這將是努力提高成交率的重要方面。

I would now like to turn the conference back to Kris Rosemann for closing remarks. Sir?

現在我想請克里斯·羅斯曼（Kris Rosemann）致閉幕詞。先生？

We want to thank everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings results with you in mid-February. Thank you again, and goodbye. .

我們要感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們期待在 2 月中旬與您討論我們第四季和 2024 年全年的獲利結果。再次感謝您，再見。 。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。