Gerdau SA (GGB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. And welcome to our earnings release for the fourth quarter 2024 for Gerdau. I'm Mariana Dutra, Head of Investor Relations. And here with us today are Mr. Gustavo Werneck, CEO; and CFO, Rafael Japur.

大家早安。歡迎閱讀我們發布的 Gerdau 2024 年第四季財報。我是投資者關係主管瑪麗安娜杜特拉 (Mariana Dutra)。今天與我們在一起的還有執行長 Gustavo Werneck 先生；和財務長 Rafael Japur。

This call has simultaneous translation into English, and you can choose the language of your choice clicking in the globe icon in the lower part of your screen. (Event Instructions)

此通話具有英語同聲翻譯功能，您可以點擊螢幕下方的地球圖示選擇所需的語言。(活動須知)

I would like to emphasize that any forward-looking statements are assumptions and beliefs of the company based on information currently available. Forward-looking statements do not represent performance, outlook and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur.

我想強調的是，任何前瞻性陳述都是公司基於目前可用的資訊所做的假設和信念。前瞻性陳述並不代表業績、前景，並且取決於可能發生或可能不會發生的情況。

Now I'll turn the floor over to Gustavo to begin the presentation. You may begin, Gustavo.

現在我將請 Gustavo 開始演講。你可以開始了，古斯塔沃。

Thank you, Mari. Hello, everyone, and good afternoon. I hope you're all well, and thank you for meeting us today for another earnings release call. I will briefly comment on the highlights of the quarter and the outlook for our operations dedicating more time for the Q&A session.

謝謝你，瑪麗。大家好，下午好。我希望你們都很好，感謝你們今天參加我們的另一次收益發布電話會議。我將簡要評論本季的亮點和我們營運的前景，並在問答環節留出更多時間。

So first of all, I would like to point out that we ended 2024 with the lowest accident frequency rate in our 124-year history. And I reinstate our commitment to people's health, safety, and well-being, which, as you know, is always our priority. We came to the end of 2024 calendar year with an adjusted EBITDA of BRL10.800 billion as a result of improved competitiveness of our operations achieved through strategic cost reduction initiatives, mainly involving our assets in Brazil.

首先，我想指出的是，2024 年是我們 124 年歷史上事故頻率最低的一年。我重申我們對人民健康、安全和福祉的承諾，正如你們所知，這始終是我們的首要任務。截至 2024 年曆年末，我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 108 億雷亞爾，這得益於我們透過策略成本削減措施（主要涉及我們在巴西的資產）提高了營運競爭力。

Meanwhile, the Brazilian market continued to be impacted by the high penetration rate of imported steel in Brazil, which ended the year at almost 20%, even with the implementation in the midst of last year, of the tariff quota system.

同時，儘管去年年中實施了關稅配額制度，巴西市場仍持續受到進口鋼鐵高滲透率的衝擊，年底滲透率仍接近20%。

Finally, I would like to point out that we acquired two SHPs called Garganta da Jararaca and Paranatinga 2 located in the city of Mato Grosso. The purchase of these assets is in line with Gerdau strategy to have a more competitive cost of business, increasing its own production of renewable energy, and also in line with our decarbonization process.

最後，我想指出的是，我們收購了位於馬托格羅索州的兩座 SHP，分別是 Garganta da Jararaca 和 Paranatinga 2。收購這些資產符合 Gerdau 的策略，即提高業務成本、增加自身再生能源產量，同時也符合我們的脫碳進程。

Now I'll turn it over to Japur, who will go over the financial highlights.

現在我將把主題交給 Japur，他將介紹財務亮點。

Thank you, Gustavo. Hello, everyone. It's always a pleasure to be here with you in our earnings conference call. The 2024 result reinforces our ability to adapt in the importance of our geographical diversification. We were able to maintain financial metrics and a solid balance sheet with low leverage without having to sacrifice our growth initiative and our investments or our commitment to returning value to our shareholders.

謝謝你，古斯塔沃。大家好。我們很高興能與您一起參加我們的收益電話會議。2024 年的績效增強了我們適應地域多元化重要性的能力。我們能夠維持財務指標和穩健的資產負債表，同時保持低槓桿率，而無需犧牲我們的成長計劃和投資或為股東帶來價值的承諾。

In this context, I would like to highlight three points. Number one, 2024 was marked by our main focus to reduce costs and controllable expenses. Thanks to the efforts of all of our employees, we were able to achieve a savings of BRL1.5 billion, in line with our savings guidance. As a result, we started 2025 at a new level of operating efficiency compared to the year of 2023.

在此，我想強調三點。第一，2024年我們的重點是降低成本和可控開支。在我們全體員工的努力下，我們實現了 15 億巴西雷亞爾的節約，符合我們的節省目標。因此，與 2023 年相比，我們在 2025 年的營運效率將達到一個新的水平。

Secondly, our strong cash generation allowed us to invest BRL6.2 billion in CapEx in 2024 with more than half of this amount earmarked for strategic projects, growth and competitiveness gains for our assets. For 2025, our CapEx guidance, as mentioned in the material fact, will be BRL6 billion divided equally between competitiveness and maintenance efforts -- maintenance investments.

其次，我們強勁的現金創造能力使我們能夠在 2024 年投資 62 億雷亞爾用於資本支出，其中一半以上將用於戰略項目、資產成長和競爭力提升。對於 2025 年，我們的資本支出指引（如重要事實中所述）將為 60 億雷亞爾，平均分配給競爭力和維護工作（維護投資）。

Lastly, I would like to highlight the return to our shareholders. Taking to accounts -- taking into account dividends and the share buybacks in 2024, we distributed almost BRL2.9 billion, a payout of almost 66% of our profit. In other words, we completed our share buyback program of 2024 and we started a new program for 2025, buyback programs of relative the same size to repurchase 65 million shares. In 2024, we acquired 3.4% of the company's outstanding shares. And for 2025, we expect to repurchase another 3.2% of our outstanding shares.

最後，我想強調一下我們對股東的回報。考慮到 2024 年的股利和股票回購，我們分配了近 29 億雷亞爾，幾乎占我們利潤的 66%。換句話說，我們完成了 2024 年的股票回購計劃，並啟動了 2025 年的新計劃，回購計劃規模相對相同，將回購 6,500 萬股。2024年，我們收購了該公司3.4%的流通股。到 2025 年，我們預計將回購另外 3.2% 的流通股。

To end, I'd like to inform you that as of the first quarter of 2025, we will start reporting the results of our company using three reportable segments instead of four as we had before. And these three segments will be Brazil, North America, and South America. This new format is in line with the current scenario in the steel industry with an increasing regionalization of markets.

最後，我想告訴大家，從 2025 年第一季開始，我們將開始使用三個報告分部來報告公司業績，而不是像以前那樣使用四個報告分部。這三個部分分別是巴西、北美和南美。這種新模式符合當前鋼鐵業市場日益區域化的情況。

We believe that with this approach, we will have more clarity as we will group together in the same segments, macroeconomic dynamics, consumer markets, regulations, and functional currencies that are similar. In addition, this change will make our exposure to Brazil and North America clearer. And these two are our main markets of operation.

我們相信，透過這種方法，我們將獲得更清晰的認識，因為我們將把相似的細分市場、宏觀經濟動態、消費市場、法規和功能貨幣歸為一組。此外，這項變更將使我們對巴西和北美的曝險更加清晰。這兩個是我們主要的經營市場。

I'll end here, and I'll join you and Gustavo for the Q&A session.

我的演講到此結束，然後我將和您以及 Gustavo 一起參加問答環節。

Thank you, Japur. And I keep saying that in the midst of an uncertain global macroeconomic scenario, we continue to focus on the growth and competitiveness of assets with the greatest potential for generating long-term value for our customers and our stakeholders, such as the Ouro Branco unit in Minas Gerais, which will add a new hot coil rolled strip capacity in the first quarter of '25.

謝謝你，Japur。我一直說，在全球宏觀經濟形勢不確定的情況下，我們將繼續關注最有潛力為我們的客戶和利益相關者創造長期價值的資產的增長和競爭力，例如位於米納斯吉拉斯州的 Ouro Branco 工廠，該工廠將在 2025 年第一季增加新的熱卷軋製帶鋼產能。

In Brazil, we are still seeing good indicators for the construction industry with a record number of property launches and positive figures coming from the automotive sector. However, rising inflation and high interest rates aim at a market heavily impacted by steel imports could result in lower local demand for steel in the coming months.

在巴西，我們仍然看到建築業的良好指標，房地產開建數量創下歷史新高，汽車業也出現了正面的數據。然而，通膨上升和高利率針對受到鋼鐵進口嚴重影響的市場，可能導致未來幾個月國內鋼鐵需求下降。

For North America, our shipments in backlog recovered in the first quarter, returning to historical levels. We believe in a positive outlook for non-residential demand and infrastructure, which should positively influence the local market. Moreover, the new trade defense measures announced by the Trump administration aimed at straightening US industry could result in greater use of our assets in the country and improved competitiveness of these operations.

對於北美來說，我們的積壓出貨量在第一季有所恢復，回到了歷史水準。我們相信非住宅需求和基礎設施的前景樂觀，這將對當地市場產生積極影響。此外，川普政府宣布的旨在整頓美國產業的新貿易保護措施可能會使我們在該國的資產得到更廣泛的利用，並提高這些業務的競爭力。

The 25% import tariffs will have correct the exceptions resulting from Section 232, which pose mixed tariff rate quota system covered only 18% of steel shipments imported into the US. We continue to monitor how these new measures will impact the dynamics of the global market.

25%的進口關稅將修正第232條款所導致的例外情況，該條款規定的混合關稅稅率配額制度僅涵蓋了美國進口鋼鐵貨物的18%。我們將持續關注這些新措施將如何影響全球市場的動態。

In the sense, as I have said before, Brazil continues to be heavily impacted by the excessive entry of imported long and flat steels since the current system of quotas implemented in mid-2024 has been ineffective in the commercial defense of domestic steel. This mechanism has not brought the expected results. It needs to be urgently improved by the Brazilian government as it was done by the US government.

從某種意義上說，正如我之前所說，巴西繼續受到進口長材和扁材過度進入的嚴重影響，因為 2024 年中期實施的現行配額制度對於國內鋼鐵的商業保護無效。這機制並未帶來預期的效果。巴西政府需要像美國政府所做的那樣緊急改善這一現狀。

And then with that, I conclude this first part. We thank you for your attention. And now we will jump to the Q&A session.

至此，我結束了第一部分。我們感謝您的關注。現在我們進入問答環節。

Marcio Farid, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的馬西奧法里德 (Marcio Farid)。

Congratulations on the new format going straight to the point. It's great because we have more time to ask questions. Well, Gustavo, perhaps we could start from the very end of your presentation. I believe that the last two quarters in the United States, the second half of last year were challenging in the US volume mix price. And perhaps that reached a bottom in the fourth quarter.

祝賀新格式直奔主題。這很棒，因為我們有更多的時間來提問。好吧，古斯塔沃，也許我們可以從你的演講的最後開始。我認為，美國過去兩個季度，也就是去年下半年，對美國的產量、價格都提出了挑戰。或許在第四季已經觸底。

But now with the US presidential elections behind us with the seasonality and tariffs things could improve. What should we expect in the United States in the first quarter and also second quarter and second half of the year? And how would you adapt your North America operations, if tariffs are effective but particularly against Canada and Mexico, knowing that -- knowing your mix of operations there?

但現在美國總統大選已經結束，加上季節性和關稅的影響，情況可能會有所改善。我們對美國第一季、第二季和下半年的情況應該有何期待？如果關稅有效，特別是針對加拿大和墨西哥，您將如何調整您在北美的業務，以了解那裡的業務組合？

And quickly, in Brazil, we saw long steel prices falling recently. We believe that this is due to a movement of destocking that became in the end of last year. So I'd like to note from you, are we starting to see a pickup of purchases in Brazil? Is there any scenario to remove discounts? And how should we think about the Brazilian demand in the macroeconomic context we have ahead of us?

近期，我們看到巴西長材價格迅速下跌。我們認為，這是由於去年年底開始的去庫存運動所致。所以我想問一下，我們是否開始看到巴西的購買量回升？有沒有什麼情況可以取消折扣？我們該如何從當前的宏觀經濟背景來看巴西的需求？

Well, Marcio, thank you very much. We debated a lot our way of having our earnings call to try to simplify. So thank you for the positive feedback. So I'll start answering Marcio's question and then Japur can add, particularly regarding the volume of products that we have between Mexico and the United States. Marcio, indeed, in the end of last year, not just in December, but in October, we started having that expectation regarding what would happen as of January 20. We saw a decline in our backlog, although we understood that the demand fundamentals remain solid.

好吧，馬西奧，非常感謝你。我們就召開收益電話會議的方式進行了大量討論，試圖簡化方式。非常感謝您的正面回饋。因此，我將開始回答 Marcio 的問題，然後 Japur 可以補充一些內容，特別是有關墨西哥和美國之間的產品貿易量。馬西奧，確實，在去年年底，不僅是在 12 月，而且在 10 月，我們就開始對 1 月 20 日會發生什麼有了預期。儘管我們了解需求基本面依然穩固，但我們發現積壓訂單有所減少。

So yes, there was this expectation. But when the new administration took office, particularly the new trade defense measures, well new is a way of saying they just pressed the rewind button and we went back to what happened in 2018 because in the Trade Act, Section 232, there were many exceptions. So we went back to what it was before. And I believe that this business is going to be seen with more discipline. There is no trend to go back to the way it was.

是的，有這個期望。但當新政府上任時，特別是新的貿易防禦措施，嗯，新的意思是說他們只是按下了倒帶按鈕，我們回到了2018年發生的事情，因為在《貿易法》第232條中，有很多例外情況。於是我們又恢復了以前的樣子。我相信這項業務將會受到更自律的監管。不存在回到原來狀態的趨勢。

Regardless of that, in the last 30 days, we saw an interesting recovery in the backlog. The backlog reformed itself very quickly. The spreads that were declining a bit with the new announcements of commercial repositioning of all producers. Well, those recovered. So the trend looking forward is that we'll have a very positive scenario.

不管怎樣，在過去 30 天裡，我們看到積壓訂單出現了有趣的恢復。積壓問題很快就解決。隨著所有生產商宣布商業重新定位，利差略有下降。嗯，那些都康復了。因此，展望未來趨勢，我們將看到非常積極的前景。

The first signs of these first 30 days point to optimism so that 2025 is expected to be a better year than expected in North America. Right now, we're working with a low usage of our rolling mills. This backlog has an ability to be absorbed by the installed capacity. We are at about 70% usage of our capacity. We have capacity available to immediately turn on. We have people. So the decision to turn on the rolling mills to have additional usage, it's a very fast decision. So we see this very positively.

這 30 天來的最初跡象表明人們對此持樂觀態度，因此預計 2025 年將是北美比預期更好的一年。目前，我們的軋機使用率較低。這些積壓訂單有能力被已安裝的容量所吸收。我們的產能利用率約為70％。我們擁有可以立即投入使用的產能。我們有人。因此，啟動軋機以滿足額外用途的決定是一個非常快速的決定。因此我們對此持非常正面的看法。

There is this issue with Canada. We do transition products from Canada to the US. So we don't see this as having a very material effect. But I'll give the floor to Japur to give you more detail regarding products moved from Canada to the US.

加拿大也存在這個問題。我們確實將產品從加拿大轉移到美國。因此我們認為這不會產生什麼實質的影響。但我會讓賈普爾向您提供有關從加拿大運往美國的產品的更多細節。

So I think that from Canada to the US we have about 7% to 8% of what we saw in North America. These are products, the 7% to 8% of products that we manufacture in Canada and transport to the United States. Of course, we are working with our area of SMOP to see what is the best way to mitigate potential additional tariffs we might have. This is going to be an exercise to understand what exemptions, rebates, the clients will be able to get from the government and have the usual trade negotiations.

因此我認為，從加拿大到美國，我們所看到的產量大約是北美產量的 7% 到 8%。這些產品占我們在加拿大生產並運往美國的 7% 到 8%。當然，我們正在與 SMOP 地區合作，尋找緩解潛在額外關稅的最佳方法。這將是一次練習，以了解客戶能夠從政府獲得哪些豁免和回扣，並進行通常的貿易談判。

But we are were talking about 7% of what is a question mark versus 93%, which is certain to have a more positive and constructive market situation. Also considering the mix, you have followed that in the recent quarters, we had an impoverishment in our mix of products in North America selling more rebar, close to 20% of our mix being rebar versus 10% that we had in moments of higher margins as was the case in 2022.

但我們談論的 7% 是一個問號，而 93% 則肯定會帶來更積極和建設性的市場狀況。另外考慮到產品組合，您已經注意到，在最近幾個季度中，我們在北美銷售更多螺紋鋼的產品組合出現下滑，我們的產品組合中螺紋鋼接近 20%，而在利潤率較高的時候（例如 2022 年），螺紋鋼所佔比例為 10%。

In addition to, of course, volume which has an important effect to improve the mix because we're talking about beans and merchant bars, which have margins and -- higher margins and added value than rebar. And as regards to Mexico, basically, we don't have exports from Mexico into the United States. So for us, this is not an issue.

當然，除此之外，數量對於改善產品組合也有著重要的作用，因為我們談論的是豆類和商用鋼筋，它們的利潤率和附加價值都高於螺紋鋼。至於墨西哥，基本上，我們沒有從墨西哥向美國出口產品。所以對我們來說這不是問題。

Rafael Barcellos, Bradesco BBI.

拉斐爾·巴塞洛斯（Rafael Barcellos），Bradesco BBI。

My first question would be about the Brazilian market. But from a more strategic point of view, we see some players adding more rebar capacity recently. And in terms of demand, the country remains with a level of demand, per capita demand or any other indicator. But with the demand level, which is below its potential.

我的第一個問題是關於巴西市場。但從更具策略性的角度來看，我們看到最近一些參與者正在增加螺紋鋼產能。就需求而言，該國仍保持一定的需求水平，無論是人均需求或其他指標。但需求水準低於其潛力。

Having said that, I'd like to understand your strategic view of the Brazilian market, any product line that makes sense to invest is something to be discontinued? And in particular, regarding rebar. Perhaps shouldn't this be a market where Gerdau could look for more consolidation?

話雖如此，我想了解您對巴西市場的策略觀點，任何值得投資的產品線都應該停產嗎？特別是關於鋼筋。或許，Gerdau 不應該在這個市場上尋求進一步整合嗎？

My second question is about a follow-up question regarding US tariffs because I think that this is a point that has been discussed over and over. First, what about discussions about the potential investments in the Mexico plant? I would like to have an update on that. And second point regarding how do you see the Gerdau's ability to grow in the United States and in what segments?

我的第二個問題是關於美國關稅的後續問題，因為我認為這個問題已經被反覆討論過了。首先，關於墨西哥工廠的潛在投資的討論怎麼樣？我想了解一下最新情況。第二點，您如何看待 Gerdau 在美國的發展能力以及在哪些領域？

Rafael, thank you for your comments and questions. Indeed, you touched on a very relevant point. Even in this current moment of still high demand for rebar, it has been very difficult to get the level of competitiveness that we're aiming for, not just ours, all other players as well. As we imagine that along the year, there might be a reduction, particularly in mid- to high-income construction segment.

拉斐爾，感謝您的評論和提問。確實，你觸及了一個非常相關的觀點。即使目前螺紋鋼需求仍然很高，但要達到我們所期望的競爭力水平仍然非常困難，不僅是我們自己，所有其他參與者也是如此。我們設想，隨著時間的推移，可能會出現減少，特別是在中高收入建築領域。

We don't believe in a significant drop of MCMV, but it uses rebar and steel with a lower gauge. So in the scenario that can worsen as of the second half without the demand for a higher gauge rebar, a scenario that is not so good can get worse. From the practical standpoint, there are debates happening with the federal government because rebar needs to be put more intensely in this issue of commercial policy.

我們不相信 MCMV 會大幅下降，但它使用規格較低的鋼筋和鋼材。因此，在下半年如果沒有對更高規格螺紋鋼的需求，情況可能會進一步惡化，而本來就不太好的情況可能會變得更糟。從實際角度來看，聯邦政府正在發生爭論，因為鋼筋需要在這個商業政策議題上得到更深入的重視。

It doesn't change the supply and demand for steel in Brazil. So of course, we will need to adapt capacity perhaps in the future, have some consolidation. But I would say that this is not close to happening. And we would need to increase our competitiveness, to be able to compete in a market that became very complex.

這不會改變巴西的鋼鐵供需狀況。因此當然，我們將來也許需要調整產能，進行一些整合。但我想說，這還遠遠沒有發生。我們需要提高競爭力，才能在非常複雜的市場中競爭。

But in a way, Rafael, rebar has been facing this kind of difficulty in last year. There's nothing new. No one can add capacity overnight. Capacity addition is being announced, it's not by chance that reinforced concrete and rebar has been losing share in our product mix in Brazil. When we look at the relevance of flat and special steel, it's higher than for reinforced concrete.

但從某種程度上來說，拉斐爾，螺紋鋼在去年就一直面臨這種困難。沒什麼新鮮事。沒有人能夠在一夜之間增加產能。產能增加的消息即將公佈，鋼筋混凝土和螺紋鋼在我們巴西的產品組合中的份額不斷下降並非偶然。當我們觀察到扁平材和特殊鋼的相關性時，其相關性高於鋼筋混凝土。

In our current investments, it doesn't make any sense to invest in increasing rebar capacity except some investments that can increase a level of competitiveness or reduce the current level of cost. Our investments right now are focused on a segment where we now have a market share, which is a rolling of flat steel. Now in mid-March, we're already testing it. We are producing in the test phase in this new rolling capacity in Ouro Branco, another 250,000 tonnes.

在我們目前的投資中，除了一些可以提高競爭力或降低當前成本水準的投資外，投資增加螺紋鋼產能沒有任何意義。我們目前的投資集中在我們目前擁有市場份額的領域，即扁鋼軋製。現在是三月中旬，我們已經在進行測試了。在 Ouro Branco 的新軋製能力的測試階段，我們正在生產另外 25 萬噸。

So flat steel will increase its share in our total product mix and mining is an investment that is doing very well, expected to start operating in January of next year. It will bring us a level of competitive and cost to the Ouro Branco unit that we didn't have in the past.

因此，扁平材在我們的整體產品結構中的份額將會增加，而採礦是一項表現非常好的投資，預計將於明年 1 月開始運作。它將為 Ouro Branco 部門帶來前所未有的競爭力和成本水平。

So very focused on leaving rebar as an important product, but we have find alternatives with other products without turnover supply, to create more value and add more profitability because, in fact, at this moment, it is very hard to think about any possible alternative to recover the profitability of rebar in Brazil. I'll let Japur add, and if there's anything I left out, Rafael, anything we didn't answer, please, you ask a follow-up question.

因此，我們非常注重讓螺紋鋼作為一種重要產品，但我們已經找到了沒有周轉供應的其他產品的替代品，以創造更多價值並增加更多盈利能力，因為事實上，目前很難想像有任何可能的替代方案來恢復巴西螺紋鋼的盈利能力。我會讓 Japur 補充，如果我遺漏了什麼，Rafael，或者我們沒有回答的任何事情，請你提出後續問題。

Perhaps putting the two questions together regarding Mexico, tariffs and investments in where to grow in North America. It is obviously more challenging to have a green field project to investment in special steel in New Mexico in a geopolitical context that was more difficult. And now with the adoption of tariffs, not only between the countries that are negotiating, but also additional tariffs of Section 232, not having the exemption for countries with bilateral trade agreements. So we'll take that into account. We'll revisit the investment possibilities. And by June, we understand that we will have a tangible answer regarding how we will move forward or not with the investment in Mexico.

也許可以把有關墨西哥、關稅和投資在北美哪裡可以發展這兩個問題放在一起。在地緣政治背景較為困難的情況下，在新墨西哥州進行特種鋼鐵綠地投資計畫顯然更具挑戰性。現在，不僅在談判的國家之間實施了關稅，而且還根據第 232 條實施了附加關稅，而對簽署雙邊貿易協定的國家則不實行豁免。所以我們會考慮到這一點。我們將重新審視投資可能性。到六月，我們就會知道，我們就會有關於如何推進或停止在墨西哥的投資的明確答案。

A reminder that is very important to highlight. Today, we understand that we already have a relevant market share for special steel segment in Mexico, about 18% through exports from Brazil into Mexico and from the United States into Mexico from our units over there.

需要強調的是，這是一個非常重要的提醒。今天，我們了解到，透過我們在墨西哥的單位從巴西出口到墨西哥以及從美國出口到墨西哥，我們已經在墨西哥的特殊鋼領域佔有約 18% 的市場份額。

Thus, thinking about this new context of tariffs in North American market, there's an option to invest perhaps, to grow against special steel we have made investments in our Monroe plant that we completed last year and the investments we have underway today, which are very representative in Texas in Midlothian.

因此，考慮到北美市場關稅的新背景，也許有一個投資的選擇，為了發展特種鋼，我們對去年完成的門羅工廠進行了投資，並且我們今天正在進行的投資在德克薩斯州米德洛錫安非常具有代表性。

In the second half of the year, we should complete this first phase of this investment aiming to take this plant to almost 2 million tonnes capacity in a foreseeable future. So right now, we are privileging and we have already built bricks, in that construction to build the portfolio more focused on beans and merchant and bars in the long run in our North America operation.

今年下半年，我們應該完成這項投資的第一階段，目標是在可預見的未來使該工廠的產能達到近 200 萬噸。因此現在，我們正在享有特權，並且已經建造好磚塊，以便在我們的北美業務中長期建立更專注於可豆、商家和酒吧的投資組合。

Daniel Sasson, Itau BBA.

丹尼爾·薩森（Daniel Sasson），伊塔烏 BBA。

I think somebody said that -- Gustavo said that the call will be very quickly so that we can extend in the Q&A session. In terms of reportable volumes, maybe you can give us a better idea about actual volumes and revenues, Brazil and US

我想有人說過－古斯塔沃說，通話會非常快，以便我們可以在問答環節中延長時間。就可報告的數量而言，也許您可以告訴我們巴西和美國的實際數量和收入情況。

My first question may be addressed to Japur. Combining a little bit of guidance, CapEx and your cash generation expectation going forward. Japur, as part of that BRL6 billion guidance, I just want to know whether that also contemplates your electric power generation assets or you have something from next that probably is not contemplated in that BRL6 billion amount.

我的第一個問題是針對 Japur 的。結合一些指導、資本支出和您未來的現金產生預期。Japur，作為 60 億雷亞爾指導金額的一部分，我只想知道其中是否也考慮到了您的發電資產，或者您接下來是否有一些可能未在 60 億雷亞爾金額中考慮到的內容。

I know you don't give any guidance, but given the fact that this year's guidance also incorporates some initiatives related to ESG, would it be reasonable in qualitative terms to think in terms of a lower CapEx '26 and '25, whether you could comment on CapEx evolution this year. You accelerated a lot in the fourth quarter of last year. So do you think we could expect something better distribute throughout the year 2025.

我知道您沒有給出任何指導，但考慮到今年的指導還包含了一些與 ESG 相關的舉措，從定性角度考慮 26 年和 25 年的資本支出較低是否合理，您是否可以對今年的資本支出發展發表評論。去年第四季你們加速了很多。那麼，您認為我們能期待 2025 年有更好的分佈嗎？

Now in terms of your new BQ project or hot coil roll strip project, I know that it's about to happen in the next coming days. What is the expected shipments for this year? And how are you projecting this curve? Maybe if I can think about additional plans for the year that could be very good.

現在就您的新 BQ 專案或熱捲捲帶專案而言，我知道它將在接下來的幾天內發生。今年的預計出貨量是多少？您如何投射這條曲線？如果我能為這一年考慮一些額外的計劃，也許會很好。

Okay, Japur, maybe you can start by answering the question on CapEx. I mean, it's hard to talk with two Gustavos in the same day, right? So we just want to free up your time. So Gustavo will talk about CapEx, and then I'll talk about the hot coal rolling line.

好的，Japur，也許你可以先回答有關資本支出 (CapEx) 的問題。我的意思是，同一天與兩個 Gustavos 交談很困難，對吧？所以我們只是想騰出你的時間。因此，Gustavo 將談論資本支出，然後我將談論熱煤軋製線。

The guidance of BRL6 billion this year. Maybe it's important that I elaborate on the topic a bit more. Typically in the last few years, we were investing with some interventions during the maintenance shutdowns that usually occur at the end of the year. So usually, CapEx was spent slowly in the first quarters. And it will pick up throughout the last part of the year.

今年的指導價為60億雷亞爾。也許我需要進一步詳細闡述這個主題。通常，在過去幾年裡，我們會在通常發生在年底的維護停工期間進行一些幹預投資。因此通常情況下，資本支出在第一季會比較緩慢消耗。今年下半年這一趨勢將會回升。

This year, as we already have some very important and major projects that are underway that do not depend on maintenance shutdowns like our [Tabei] project, our CapEx curve of BRL6 billion will tend to be flatter throughout the year. So if you think about cash flow throughout the year, I think the curve will be very similar because we are beginning the year with some very important CapEx spendings right at the onset of the year. This is just to give you an idea of our CapEx performance throughout the year. So this is my first comment.

今年，由於我們已經有一些非常重要且主要的項目正在進行中，而且這些項目不依賴像我們的（塔北）項目這樣的維護停工，因此我們的 60 億雷亞爾的資本支出曲線全年將趨於平緩。因此，如果你考慮全年的現金流，我認為曲線會非常相似，因為我們在年初就有一些非常重要的資本支出。這只是為了讓您了解我們全年的資本支出表現。這是我的第一條評論。

My second point that it's important that I highlight, which has to do with the quality of the number. What is contemplated in that number, within that BRL6 billion? I would like to remind you that at the end of last year, we made two announcements related to electric generation in our self-energy production. The first thing was our investment in the energy company, where we increased our stake to 40% and the agreement was a bit different.

我要強調的第二點很重要，這與數字的品質有關。60 億巴西雷亞爾裡麵包含了哪些內容？我想提醒大家，去年年底，我們發布了兩項與自有能源生產發電相關的公告。第一件事是我們對能源公司的投資，我們將股份增加到 40%，協議有點不同。

Okay, three -- from the three solar units we will have through new energy, we will build these subsidiaries, but there will be full subsidiaries of Gerdau. So what would be an equity investment of a control company will now turn to be a CapEx throughout the year 2025. So out of that BRL6 billion CapEx, something around BRL400 million are already investment to generate energy in these three hubs that will be -- will belong to Gerdau in full. And when we think about investments, in steel, there is already a reduction of -- from BRL5.2 billion to BRL5 billion this year.

好的，我們將透過新能源擁有三個太陽能部門，建立這些子公司，但 Gerdau 將擁有完整的子公司。因此，控制公司的股權投資將在 2025 年全年轉變為資本支出。因此，在 60 億雷亞爾的資本支出中，大約有 4 億雷亞爾已經用於在這三個樞紐發電，這些投資將全部屬於 Gerdau。當我們考慮鋼鐵投資時，今年的投資已經從 52 億雷亞爾減少到了 50 億雷亞爾。

And then when we look forward and whenever we look at new investments for the years to come, what Gustavo said throughout his presentation, is that we understand that in this new scenario where we see increased commercial defense that we should be more assertive in defending our interest, meaning that, yes, we do have a very relevant investment portfolio that have been approved last year, and it's now underway.

然後，當我們展望未來，每當我們考慮未來幾年的新投資時，古斯塔沃在整個演講中都說，我們明白，在這種新情況下，我們看到商業防禦的加強，我們應該更積極地捍衛我們的利益，這意味著，是的，我們確實有一個非常相關的投資組合，該投資組合已於去年獲得批准，現在正在進行中。

But now it has come to time that for new projects, we have to be very diligent and it will certainly depend on what kind of decisions the government -- the governments will take in terms of its own commercial defense to drop a plan of CapEx spending. So maybe there will be less investment approvals throughout this year.

但是現在對於新項目我們必須非常勤勉，而且這肯定取決於政府——政府將出於自身商業防禦的考慮而做出什麼樣的決定，以放棄資本支出計劃。因此，今年全年的投資審批可能會比較少。

And I think with that, I covered the main points of your question on CapEx, and I elaborated a bit more on the answer because I thought it was important to make a distinction between energy CapEx, which is now changing this year, BRL450 million that is contemplated in that BRL6.2 billion. And the second point, I would like to say that it will be a flatter curve of CapEx disbursement when compared to previous years when there was a leap from the first through the fourth quarter. And so now Gustavo will talk about the hot coil rolling mill.

我認為，我已經涵蓋了您關於資本支出問題的要點，並且我對答案做了更詳細的闡述，因為我認為區分能源資本支出（今年正在發生變化）和 62 億雷亞爾中所含的 4.5 億雷亞爾非常重要。第二點，我想說的是，與前幾年第一季到第四季的跳躍式成長相比，今年的資本支出曲線將會更加平緩。現在 Gustavo 將談論熱捲軋機。

Okay. BQ in Portuguese. I would like -- I mean, we know that we have new BQ capacities, not within this landscape of just adding capacity to a market that in a few moments, with imports, We have an overcapacity. Well, first of all, I would like to say that this is part of the journey of removing semi-finished from Ouro Branco, which is focused on exports and adding products with higher added value.

好的。葡萄牙語的 BQ。我想——我的意思是，我們知道我們有新的 BQ 產能，而不是在這種環境下只向市場增加產能，因為幾分鐘後，由於進口，我們就會產能過剩。首先我想說，這是從 Ouro Branco 移除半成品旅程的一部分，我們的重點是出口，並增加具有更高附加價值的產品。

Second of all, once we bring mining investment starting next year, our hot coil rolling mill cost will be highly competitive. We will be able to produce BQ with ore coming very close to Ouro Branco. The other aspect is that since we have a very full mix of products, and we are very strong through our Commercial Gerdau, we are very sure that throughout the year with our captive clients, we will be able to ship 250,000 tonnes. I mean, the demand was repressed. And even in the new moments with the overflow of imported goods, it was hard to sell, but we are very certain that this investment will bring about the benefits we had envisioned.

其次，一旦我們從明年開始引入採礦投資，我們的熱捲軋機成本將極具競爭力。我們將能夠利用 Ouro Branco 附近的礦石來生產 BQ。另一方面，由於我們的產品組合非常齊全，而且透過商業蓋爾道集團 (Gerdau) 我們實力雄厚，我們非常有信心，全年我們將能夠向我們的客戶運送 25 萬噸產品。我的意思是，需求受到了壓抑。即使在進口商品氾濫的新情況下，銷售也很難，但我們非常確定這項投資將帶來我們所預想的收益。

And there is a possibility in the future, which is to have a new phase of BQ or BQ3. So with this, we will create new options in the future. Let's say that if we want to do a new phase of hot coil roll strips, we could do that, maybe not to cater to the automotive industry, but maybe then to serve civil construction or the white line. So there will be -- our plant will have that additional option.

而且未來還有一種可能性，就是出現一個新的BQ階段或是BQ3。因此，有了這個，我們將來會創造新的選擇。假設我們想要進行熱捲帶鋼的新階段，我們可以這樣做，也許不是為了迎合汽車產業，而是為了服務土木工程或白線。所以我們的工廠將會有這個額外的選擇。

And now returning to Rafa's question, getting into markets that we are not present today, and this would also help us to dilute the issue of reinforced concrete and rebar. This is part of a midterm plan with mining, which will increase competitiveness of our Ouro Branco Mill, something that we didn't have in the past. So in general, this is it.

現在回到拉法的問題，進入我們今天尚未涉足的市場，這也有助於我們淡化鋼筋混凝土和螺紋鋼的問題。這是採礦業中期計劃的一部分，它將提高我們 Ouro Branco Mill 的競爭力，這是我們過去所沒有的。總的來說就是這樣。

Let me just add to what Gustavo said. And we had maintenance shutdowns starting in the fourth quarter and continue throughout the year. We will start up the operation in this first quarter. So the first quarter in terms of shipments of flat steel challenges will be a bit higher because there is lack of availability of machinery because almost two-third of the quarter that machine or that equipment was in maintenance. But in view of productivity gains, because we are expanding our rolling mill capacity by 30%, we hope to mitigate that shipments or sales volume that we did not have, at least we do that in the first quarter.

讓我補充一下古斯塔沃所說的話。我們從第四季開始進行維護停工，並持續全年。我們將在第一季開始營運。因此，第一季扁平材出貨量的挑戰將會更高一些，因為機械設備供應不足，因為幾乎三分之二的季度機器或設備處於維修狀態。但考慮到生產率的提高，因為我們正在將軋機產能擴大30%，我們希望能夠減輕我們之前的出貨量或銷售量，至少我們在第一季做到了這一點。

We have a very quick follow-up. I just want to understand a little bit your energy assets. I mean, they're part of that BRL6 billion CapEx. Is there something next that is not contemplated in that CapEx amount of BRL6 billion in terms of cash disbursements and thinking about M&As or investments that are -- and are not in the pipeline.

我們的後續工作進展非常迅速。我只是想稍微了解一下你的能源資產。我的意思是，它們是 60 億巴西雷亞爾資本支出的一部分。在現金支出方面，60 億巴西雷亞爾的資本支出中是否還有未考慮的事項，以及是否考慮過正在進行和尚未進行的併購或投資。

Energy investment, as Gustavo mentioned, we had the acquisition of two SHPs for hydroelectric energy. This is an M&A, was disbursement that happened early this year, about BRL440 million. So okay, this is not included in that BRL6 billion. But in addition, we also invested in two solar farms in the [Bahu Alto complex] -- I mean, three specific farms, and that is around BRL440 million, and these are CapEx, and we are building solar farms. And these are contemplated in the BRL6 billion.

能源投資，正如 Gustavo 所提到的，我們收購了兩座小水電廠來獲取水力發電。這是一項併購，是今年年初發生的支出，約 4.4 億雷亞爾。好吧，這不包括在那 60 億巴西雷亞爾中。但除此之外，我們還在 [Bahu Alto 綜合體] 投資了兩個太陽能發電場——我的意思是三個特定的發電場，價值約 4.4 億巴西雷亞爾，這些都是資本支出，我們正在建造太陽能發電場。這些預計金額為 60 億巴西雷亞爾。

In addition, what we're seeing for the year is about BRL70 million to BRL75 million to be invested in our subsidiary of -- it's a joint venture of vehicle rental. And we do not have in addition to those, any other relevant investment for this year.

此外，我們預計今年將向我們的子公司投資約 7,000 萬至 7,500 萬雷亞爾——這是一家汽車租賃合資企業。除此之外，我們今年沒有其他相關投資。

Leo Correa, BTG Pactual.

Leo Correa，BTG Pactual。

Well, I do apologize for not putting my video on. So I do apologize. I just have a few points. I have some mental confusion in relation to Brazil. I mean, going back to what you said on price and demand. In January, and when I talk to some distributors, probably this has been the worst January in a very long time. I mean, there was a Friday discount of 7%. And I talked to you before and you said something probably half of that, maybe 4% for rebars. But now when we look at premium, rebar premium is very low when compared to BQ or hot coil. I mean, rebar of the premium is 10%.

好吧，我很抱歉沒有上傳我的影片。所以我深感抱歉。我只是有幾點看法。我對巴西感到有些困惑。我的意思是，回到你所說的價格和需求問題。今年 1 月，當我與一些經銷商交談時，我發現這可能是很長一段時間以來最糟糕的 1 月。我的意思是，週五有 7% 的折扣。我之前和你談過，你說過鋼筋的漲幅可能只有這個數字的一半，大概是 4%。但現在當我們看溢價時，與BQ或熱捲相比，螺紋鋼溢價非常低。我的意思是，螺紋鋼的溢價是10%。

So my question is, is there any specific event happening with rebars because demand seems to be similar for both. There are still many launches. My House, My Life program remain strong. So my question relates to prices of long steels in Brazil and what do you think -- what is your idea about reviewing those prices or maybe we should see prices being more stable by the end of the quarter?

所以我的問題是，由於兩者的需求似乎相似，因此螺紋鋼是否發生了任何特定事件。還有很多發射。「我的房子，我的生活」計畫依然強勁。所以我的問題是關於巴西長鋼的價格，您認為——您對審查這些價格有什麼想法，或者我們應該在本季度末看到價格更加穩定？

And my second question, still related to the US, I think many colleagues talked about the change in the accounting system used by the company. I know that the market is debating that because people do not like any disclosure reductions. But since this is a very complex issue and split between two markets, and we didn't have a lot of edge, I mean, I was projecting margin more than anything. And so for me, this change comes as a positive thing. But I would like to escape that accounting issue.

我的第二個問題仍然與美國有關，我想很多同事談到了公司使用的會計系統的變化。我知道市場正在爭論這一點，因為人們不喜歡任何披露減少。但由於這是一個非常複雜的問題，而且分成兩個市場，而且我們沒有太多的優勢，我的意思是，我預測的利潤率比任何東西都高。所以對我來說，這個改變是一件正面的事情。但我想逃避這個會計問題。

And my question is, do you think that accounting measure had any implications in your future analysis of a spin-off in the US, maybe. Has that -- has there been any progress in this regard? Or maybe there is nothing at the moment. Maybe this would be a pre-condition. Once you give more visibility to your revenue in the US by doing that move. So not referring to this closure, but I just want to know whether this move expedites the spin-off in your US business, so that the market could probably attribute a greater value or a higher valuation.

我的問題是，您是否認為該會計指標對您未來對美國分拆的分析會產生什麼影響？這方面有進展嗎？或者可能目前什麼都沒有。也許這是一個先決條件。一旦您透過此舉措提高了您在美國的收入的可見性。所以不是指這次關閉，我只是想知道這個舉措是否會加快你們美國業務的分拆，以便市場可能賦予它更大的價值或更高的估值。

Okay. I will start from your last question. I think we understand that the markets are becoming even more regional. Like now we have four reportable segments. This was the same structure we have up to the fourth quarter. And so in special steels, not only we have -- we contemplated the operations in Brazil and the US, but also our operations in Spain that are quite relevant operations in India, meaning global operations for the automotive industry.

好的。我將從你的最後一個問題開始。我想我們明白市場正在變得更加區域化。就像現在我們有四個可報告的細分市場。這是我們截至第四季為止的相同結構。因此，在特殊鋼領域，我們不僅有考慮在巴西和美國的業務，還考慮在西班牙的業務，這些業務與印度的業務相當相關，這意味著汽車行業的全球業務。

But now we see that this automotive chain is no longer becoming so global. We are referring to them as being more regional. And so because of that we understood that now would be a good time even considering this new context of tariff debate. We thought that this new model would give you more clarity in terms of our markets, the US, Canada and Brazil. So I think this was the main drive.

但現在我們看到這個汽車鏈條不再那麼全球化了。我們稱它們為更具區域性。因此，我們明白，即使考慮到關稅辯論的新背景，現在也是個好時機。我們認為這種新模式可以讓您更清楚地了解我們的市場，即美國、加拿大和巴西。所以我認為這是主要動力。

But that by no means that we have a lower focus or a lower appetite for special steels or that our interest in that segment is not as important because it is a very competitive product. But the way we report the information has changed because we think it makes more sense to report per geography rather than per type of product as we used to do in the past.

但這並不意味著我們對特種鋼的關注或興趣降低了，也不意味著我們對這一領域的興趣不那麼重要，因為它是一種非常有競爭力的產品。但我們報告資訊的方式已經改變，因為我們認為按地區報告比按產品類型報告更有意義，就像我們過去所做的那樣。

At the moment, we do not have any plan for a spin-off or anything in the US Of course, if that were the case, we would certainly inform the market in a proactive way. But at the moment, there is no concrete discussions in terms of a shareholder's restructuring for Gerdau at this moment.

目前，我們還沒有在美國進行分拆或任何業務的計劃。但目前，Gerdau 的股東重組方面尚未有具體討論。

Now speaking about rebars. Now speaking about Brazil, though. I mean, you started with a very good introduction about competition in prices. But it's worth mentioning that in the second half of last year, there was the addition of another player in the Northeast of Brazil. It was a new iron ore rolling mill. So we understand that we have new capacities or maybe production interruptions because of maintenance or construction.

現在談論鋼筋。現在談論巴西。我的意思是，你一開始就對價格競爭做了非常好的介紹。但值得一提的是，去年下半年，巴西東北部又增加了一名球員。這是一座新的鐵礦石軋鋼機廠。因此，我們了解到我們有新的產能，或者可能由於維護或施工而導致生產中斷。

So this is usually a period that may bring up some volatility when it comes to the balance between supply and demand. And you talked about a higher discount in long steels with the entry of these additional capacities. But at the same time, with hot coil roll strip, the spread is higher, but there was also a downtime, which led to a temporary movement in -- on the supply side. And so there has been a mismatch between supply and demand.

因此，這個時期通常會為供需平衡帶來一些波動。您談到隨著這些額外產能的加入，長材的折扣將會更高。但同時，對於熱捲帶鋼而言，價差較高，但也有停工期，導致供應方面出現暫時變動。因此出現了供需不符的情況。

In January, it was a slower month even because of the results of steel in Brazil, but we also understand that in February -- and in the first part of the year, we see a very constructive dynamic for the Brazilian market. The challenge and the uncertainty comes when we look ahead or when we look to the second half, I mean in July, if there is less credit availability, especially for mid- and high-income brackets, we probably -- we will probably see a deceleration in the construction sector in Brazil.

1 月份，儘管受巴西鋼鐵業影響，銷量較為平淡，但我們也了解到，2 月份以及今年上半年，巴西市場呈現非常正面的態勢。當我們展望未來或展望下半年時，挑戰和不確定性就出現了，我指的是 7 月份，如果信貸可用性減少，特別是對於中高收入人群，我們可能會看到巴西建築業的發展減速。

Well, we are very much impacted by seasoning demand of rebars. If we look at civil construction, even in the lower income population. Our service level is quite unique. So these new -- newcomers, they have a difficult time to get in into the infrastructure and civil construction industry scenario.

嗯，我們受到鋼筋調味需求的很大影響。如果我們看一下土木工程，即使在低收入人群中也是如此。我們的服務水準非常獨特。因此，這些新來者很難進入基礎設施和土木建築行業。

Maybe if you want anything in addition to this, you can talk to Maria or Japur, whatever we produce for -- in terms of rebars, to the distribution sector. We do not believe that this year things will change. We will continue to see a very fierce struggle this year. This scenario in Brazil, where the construction demand will be reduced, maybe I think the landscape will be even worse. Therefore, distribution remains a problem.

如果您對此有其他要求，可以與 Maria 或 Japur 談談，無論我們為何種領域生產鋼筋，還是分銷領域。我們不相信今年情況會改變。今年我們將繼續看到非常激烈的鬥爭。巴西的情況是這樣的，建築需求將會減少，也許我認為情況會更糟。因此，分配仍然是一個問題。

The attempt, and I think you already talked about the attempts to recover profitability, the premium that we've noticed both in Brazil and abroad, and this has to do with seasonality. And all of our attempts to recover profitability have not been very effective. And I would say that up to this date, we are not seeing any alternative for this problem to be solved in the short run.

我認為您已經談到了恢復盈利能力的嘗試，我們在巴西和國外都注意到了溢價，這與季節性有關。我們為恢復獲利能力所做的一切嘗試都沒有太大效果。我想說的是，到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何可以在短期內解決這個問題的替代方案。

Ricardo Monegaglia, Safra.

里卡多·莫內加利亞 (Ricardo Monegaglia)，薩夫拉。

I have two quick questions. At one point, I would like to understand in terms of the outlook. I understand this is not a guidance, but my question is, has this outlook being calculated with a new form of disclosure, including or not special steel operations and including or not. I would like to understand whether you could give us an indication of the margin for special steel in Brazil and the United States, US margin of special steel is below the traditional operations there.

我有兩個簡單的問題。我想從觀點的角度來理解這一點。我知道這不是一個指導，但我的問題是，這個前景是否是用一種新的披露形式來計算的，包括或不包括特殊鋼鐵業務。我想了解您是否能告訴我們巴西和美國特殊鋼的利潤率，美國特殊鋼的利潤率低於那裡的傳統業務。

So my point is, can we think that the margin of special steel can be close to a bottom and then recovery could be stronger than the traditional operation in the US And in the case of Brazil, do you expect maintenance of stronger levels than the normal operation in Brazil. We have estimates of vehicle associations, for example, that are very positive for this year. So I'd like to understand more about that.

所以我的觀點是，我們是否可以認為特殊鋼的利潤率可以接近底部，然後復甦可能會比美國的傳統運作更強勁？例如，我們對汽車協會的估計對今年的情況非常樂觀。所以我想進一步了解這一點。

And my second question is, there's an important discussion about incremental EBITDA of strategic projects. In that regard, I would like to try and understand a little bit better -- the incremental EBITDA that have been finalized or will be finalized in the end of Q1. How much of that is already in the result? How much could be in the result for 2025 and be a big driver of margin for 2025 considering the hot coil, the rolled strip rolling mill, if I understood well, the planned volume will be sent to the market. Perhaps we could see an incremental EBITDA of BRL500 million being included. These are my questions.

我的第二個問題是，關於策略專案的增量 EBITDA 有一個重要的討論。在這方面，我想嘗試更好地理解——已經完成或將在第一季末完成的增量 EBITDA。其中有多少已經體現在結果中了？考慮到熱捲、軋製帶鋼軋機，2025 年的業績會有多少，以及這是否會成為 2025 年利潤率的主要推動力，如果我理解得沒錯的話，計劃的數量將會被發送到市場。或許，我們可以看到增量的 EBITDA 為 5 億巴西雷亞爾。這些都是我的問題。

Hello, Ricardo. Okay, let me try to address your question. Yes, our outlook vision already includes our new way of reporting for Q1 '25. So we have more challenging margins in Brazil and recovery in the North America. This is all included -- including special steel in Brazil and special steel in North America.

你好，里卡多。好的，讓我試著回答你的問題。是的，我們的展望已經包含了 25 年第一季的新報告方式。因此，我們在巴西的利潤率和北美的復甦都面臨更大的挑戰。這些都包括在內——包括巴西的特殊鋼和北美的特殊鋼。

I think that your analysis was very well done. When you mentioned that there might eventually be more room for a strong recovery for special steel segment in North America compared to other product lines, I think that this analysis can become true along the year. I'd like to remind you that this special steel segment in North America is very much affected by the dynamic between maple spread, scrap and obsolescence scrap. When we have a reduction in scrap price. This can hurt the results of special steel in North America. When we have moments when the scrap prices increase, these are moments that normally drive the results and the margin in the operation of special steel in North America. And we have seen movements of scrap prices increasing now in Q1 at some degree.

我認為你的分析非常好。當您提到與其他產品線相比，北美特殊鋼領域最終可能有更大的強勁復甦空間時，我認為這種分析將在一年內成為現實。我想提醒大家的是，北美這個特殊的鋼領域受楓葉價差、廢鋼和過時廢鋼之間動態的影響很大。當廢品價格降低時。這可能會損害北美特殊鋼的表現。當廢鋼價格上漲時，這些時刻通常會影響北美特殊鋼的經營績效和利潤。我們看到第一季廢料價格上漲。

In Brazil, when we think about the automotive industry and segment, we have some constructive projections regarding -- or constructive forecasting regarding sales, but we should not forget that as part of the scenario, there is another important topic, i.e., how viable and accessible lightweight and heavyweight vehicles are for consumers when we have hiking interest rates for the economy and for the consumption segment.

在巴西，當我們考慮汽車行業和汽車領域時，我們對銷售有一些建設性的預測，但我們不應忘記，作為情景的一部分，還有另一個重要主題，即當我們提高經濟和消費領域的利率時，輕型和重型汽車對消費者的可行性和可獲得性如何。

I'd like to remind you, despite the production of light vehicles, having very positive prognosis in the Brazilian market. To us, what is more relevant in terms of demand for special steel would be the variations in the level of production of heavyweight vehicles because they end up having a steel consumption per unit, which is much higher than in light passenger vehicles. So this is a dynamic that we have a little bit more positive visibility in the first half for this specific segment in our market portfolio.

我想提醒你，儘管輕型車的生產，巴西市場的預測非常樂觀。對我們來說，在特種鋼需求方面更重要的是重型汽車生產水準的變化，因為它們的單位鋼材消耗量遠高於輕型乘用車。因此，這是一個動態，我們在上半年對市場組合中的這個特定細分市場有更積極的期望。

But if we continue to see a more challenging interest rates dynamics for the second half, we might face bigger challenges regarding demand, particularly in the OEMs because they normally bring forward their launches and they put together everything they need in the second half to prepare for the following year, start of 2026.

但如果我們繼續看到下半年利率動態更具挑戰性，我們可能會面臨更大的需求挑戰，特別是對於原始設備製造商而言，因為他們通常會提前推出產品，並在下半年將所需的一切整合在一起，為下一年（2026 年初）做準備。

And that's for your last point about strategic CapEx. I think that some of the projects we have will be completed but they have a ramp-up curve. So we won't start producing at full steam in month one. We won't have a full capturing of these benefits in year one. But yes, we understand that. We have the potential to have significant volume and significant cost reduction in our HRC unit at Ouro Branco.

這是關於策略資本支出的最後一點。我認為我們的一些項目將會完成，但它們有一個上升曲線。因此我們不會在第一個月就開始全力生產。我們無法在第一年就全面享受這些好處。但是的，我們明白這一點。我們有可能大幅提高 Ouro Branco 熱軋捲廠的產量並大幅降低成本。

But the big project that will be contributing a lot to increase our competitiveness will only be complete close to year end and beginning of next year, which is our Itabirito's mining project in Minas Gerais states. So we might capture some gain from the projects that are underway and about to be completed in the first phase of Midlothia. But more significantly, we will see our strategic CapEx portfolio reaping more tangible fruits to expand results all along 2026.

但對我們的競爭力有巨大貢獻的大型項目要到今年年底和明年年初才會完工，那就是位於米納斯吉拉斯州的伊塔比里托採礦項目。因此，我們可以從米德洛錫亞第一階段正在進行和即將完成的項目中獲得一些收益。但更重要的是，我們將看到我們的策略資本支出組合收穫更多實際成果，從而在 2026 年擴大業績。

Yuri Pereira, Santander.

尤里·佩雷拉，桑坦德銀行。

My question is whether there is margin to -- or space room to improve costs in Brazil. You spoke a little about that. Perhaps you could elaborate more about costs. And my second question is about whether you see a possibility to include a more long steel in the NCM list of our in quota system in force in Brazil. You mentioned in the beginning and we have noted more players in the industry, more and more receptive and open to this idea. How do you see this?

我的問題是巴西是否還有空間或空間來改善成本。您稍微談了一下這一點。也許您可以詳細說明一下成本。我的第二個問題是，您是否認為有可能在巴西現行的配額制度的 NCM 清單中納入更多長鋼。您一開始就提到了這一點，我們注意到業內越來越多的參與者對這個想法越來越接受和開放。您如何看待這現象？

I think that as regard costs and fixed costs, yes, there's always room to do better but it is important to remember that we had an important inflation pressure in terms of raw materials and -- imported raw materials and inputs because of the foreign exchange that appreciate it significantly in the second half of '24.

我認為，就成本和固定成本而言，是的，總有做得更好的空間，但重要的是要記住，由於24年下半年外匯大幅升值，我們在原材料和進口原材料和投入方面面臨著重要的通膨壓力。

That's why we always mention costs and controllable expenses, those that are under our control because, in fact, prices like gas, coal, iron ore that we might buy from third parties. These costs fluctuate impacted by the exchange rate. Since we have a higher dollar rate than we had in prior quarters, it is possible that part of our costs of the Brazil operation, I'd like to remind you that about 25% of our costs in Brazil are dollar denominated or pegged to the dollar, somehow. So yes, there will be some cost pressure on our Brazil operation along Q1 compared to -- in line with what we saw in Q4.

這就是為什麼我們總是提到成本和可控費用，那些在我們的控制範圍內的費用，因為事實上，我們可能會從第三方購買天然氣、煤炭、鐵礦石等價格。這些成本受匯率影響而波動。由於我們目前的美元匯率高於前幾個季度，所以我們在巴西業務的部分成本，我想提醒大家，我們在巴西的成本中有大約 25% 是以美元計價的，或者以某種方式與美元掛鉤的。因此是的，與第四季相比，我們第一季的巴西業務將面臨一些成本壓力——與第四季的情況一致。

Yuri, regarding trade Defense’s, there is no halfway. Either you advocate it or not. I think that the US situation itself shows this. In 2018, when they adopted Section 232 measures of the Trade Act, initially that barred the penetration of unloyal steel in the US. Then the exceptions begin. You open a door here, a door there, you lower tariff. Sometime later, it didn't work. And then it goes back to what it was. Perhaps Brazil should do the same. We should harden the situation and then see if there are exceptions.

尤里，關於貿易防禦，沒有半途而廢的選擇。無論你提倡或不提倡。我認為美國的情況本身就說明了這一點。2018年，他們通過了《貿易法》第232條款措施，最初禁止不合格鋼鐵產品進入美國。然後例外就開始了。你在這裡開一扇門，在那裡開一扇門，你就降低關稅。過了一段時間，它不起作用了。然後它又恢復原來的樣子。或許巴西也該這麼做。我們應該加強情況，然後看看是否有例外。

But here in Brazil, the government started following an example that was no longer working in the US to have a trade defense with a tariff code, few products, what's called the NCMs and reality showed real data by CSX that it didn't work. So the debates that are being kept with the federal government aim at adopting measures similar to those imposed by the US and also other countries that would be able to effectively fight the arrival of imports. We shouldn't have quotas.

但在巴西，政府開始效仿美國的做法，即透過關稅代碼、少數產品（即所謂的 NCM）建立貿易防禦機制，而這一做法在美國已經不再有效，而現實是 CSX 的真實數據顯示這種做法並沒有起到作用。因此，與聯邦政府進行的辯論旨在採取與美國和其他國家類似的措施，以有效抵制進口商品。我們不應該有配額。

If we have a tariff that will prevent the imports of unloyal steel, would include a more complex list of NCM products. Then -- well, that's what we need. We need to have a pragmatic decision to defend the industry. I was speaking to the press earlier today, and I always make a point of clarifying the difference between protection and defense.

如果我們徵收關稅是為了阻止不合格鋼鐵的進口，那麼其中將包括一份更複雜的NCM產品清單。那麼——嗯，這就是我們所需要的。我們需要做出務實的決定來捍衛這個產業。當我今天早些時候向媒體發表講話時，我總是強調保護和防禦之間的區別。

We do not need protection. Despite all of the needs, we have to compete in Brazil pay 4x more for natural gas, for example, we are very competitive. We compete on equal footing with any producer in the world. But when you start having steel imported into Brazil subsidized by the Chinese government, exchanging jobs in Brazil for jobs in China still that gets here below our cost of manufacturing, that's destructive for the industry.

我們不需要保護。儘管有種種需求，我們仍必須在巴西競爭（以巴西為例，巴西的天然氣價格高出 4 倍），因此我們的競爭力非常強。我們與世界上任何生產商平等競爭。但當中國政府開始補貼鋼鐵進口到巴西，用巴西的就業機會交換中國的就業機會，而這仍然低於我們的製造成本，這對該產業來說是破壞性的。

So that's the point. We have to adopt a harder defense -- trade defense measures, but not protection, but that will bring the competitiveness conditions to be equal, the inclusion of long steel and new NCMs. This has been an important topic in the debate that we are maintaining with the federal government.

這就是重點。我們必須採取更強硬的防禦措施——貿易防禦措施，但不是保護，而是將帶來平等的競爭條件，包括長材和新的非關稅措施。這一直是我們與聯邦政府保持辯論的重要議題。

And a follow-up question. If we had a single tariff, what breakeven level would be necessary to equalize the market?

還有一個後續問題。如果我們實行單一關稅，那麼需要什麼樣的損益平衡水準才能平衡市場？

If it's a single tariff, and we won't have products going through states that have ICMS subsidies that do not go in through a free trade zone. If it is a tariff that is fully applied -- I think that the United States is a good example of tariff of about 25% to 30%. That would solve the problem. And we would have imported products arriving at the regular level about 11%. But then we start having the exceptions, the quota.

如果是單一關稅，我們的產品就不會透過享有 ICMS 補貼的州，也不會透過自由貿易區進入。如果是全面實施的關稅－我認為美國就是一個很好的例子，關稅大約是25%到30%。這樣就可以解決問題。我們的進口產品將達到11%左右的正常水準。但後來我們開始有例外，就是配額。

In addition to the quota products, they go through some states of Brazil. That can somehow not pay for ICMS tax or still going into the country without paying the full tariffs. So there are many holes in the hose and water starts leaking. If it's a tariff, they can fight this, a tariff of about 25%, 30%. If it is effectively applied in my point of view, this would create equal level of competitiveness for everyone.

除配額產品外，它們還要經過巴西的一些州。這可能導致無法支付 ICMS 稅，或仍無法進入該國而無需支付全額關稅。軟管上有很多孔，水開始漏出。如果是關稅，他們可以抗爭，關稅大約是25%、30%。在我看來，如果它被有效運用，這將為每個人創造同等程度的競爭力。

We are approaching the end of this earnings release call. We have one last question from [Eugenia Caballero], Morgan Stanley.

我們即將結束本次收益發布電話會議。最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 [Eugenia Caballero]。

In fact, I would just like to get some visibility about working capital for this year and whether there is any difference between the different semesters or if you see any cash release via working capital this year? And how do you see this evolving going forward?

事實上，我只是想了解今年的營運資金狀況，以及不同學期之間是否存在差異，或者今年是否透過營運資金釋放任何現金？您認為未來這趨勢將如何發展？

Well, I think it will pretty much depend on what happens with demand in North America and Brazil. So I think we had a very significant working capital release in the fourth quarter. On the financial side, I mean, foreign exchange rate aid up our cash conversion cycle. If it were not for that leap in the exchange rate in terms of our working capital denominated in US dollars, but I think for this first half of the year, we anticipate some investment in working capital due to the return of the downtime and deliveries in Brazil, and also because of the addition of our broad coil, roll strip, rolling mill and the rebound of the US economy.

嗯，我認為這很大程度取決於北美和巴西的需求情況。所以我認為我們在第四季釋放了大量營運資金。從財務方面來說，我的意思是，外匯匯率有助於提高我們的現金轉換週期。如果不是匯率的大幅上漲，以美元計價的營運資本將會減少，但我認為，在今年上半年，我們預計營運資本方面會有一些投資，這是由於巴西停工和交貨的恢復，同時也因為我們寬卷、帶鋼捲、軋機的增加，以及美國經濟的反彈。

In our order book, we had seen an improvement when Trump was elected back in November. That improvement was consolidated at the end of the year, reaching something close to 60 days of order book. And today, we are over 70 days in terms of our order book in the US And this leads us to believe that our working capital demand in this first quarter will pick up, but year-to-date, we do not anticipate having any additional demand of working capital once we look at the entirety of the quarters.

在我們的訂單中，當川普去年 11 月當選時，我們已經看到了改善。這項改善在年底得到鞏固，達到接近 60 天的訂單量。今天，我們在美國的訂單已經超過 70 天，這讓我們相信，今年第一季的營運資金需求將會增加，但從今年迄今的情況來看，我們預計整個季度不會有任何額外的營運資金需求。

Okay. Thank you very much. In view of the time, we will now conclude the Q&A session, and I will turn the floor back to Gustavo for his final remarks.

好的。非常感謝。考慮到時間關係，我們現在結束問答環節，我將把發言權交還給古斯塔沃，請他作最後的發言。

Well, certainly, questions that have not been answered or if you have any additional questions, Please feel free to contact our IR team. I would like to thank you all for joining us today. And I'll take this opportunity to invite you all to join us again in our next earnings release presentation related to the first quarter of 2025 that will take place on April 29.

當然，如果您的問題尚未得到解答或您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯絡我們的 IR 團隊。我感謝大家今天的出席。我將藉此機會再次邀請大家參加我們於 4 月 29 日舉行的下一次 2025 年第一季財報發表會。

Thank you very much, and take care.

非常感謝，保重。