Gerdau SA (GGB) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Hello. Good morning, and welcome to Gerdau's third quarter 2025 earnings release presentation. I'm Mariana Dutra, Head of Investor Relations. And joining us on this conference call today are CEO, Gustavo Werneck; and our CFO, Rafael Japur. This call is being simultaneously translated into English, and you can choose your preferred language by clicking on the globe icon at the bottom of the screen. (Operator Instructions) It is worth noting that the forward-looking statements contained herein are based on the company's beliefs and assumptions based on information currently available.

    你好。早安,歡迎參加 Gerdau 2025 年第三季財報發表會。我是投資人關係主管瑪麗安娜·杜特拉。今天參加本次電話會議的還有執行長 Gustavo Werneck 和財務長 Rafael Japur。本次通話將同步翻譯成英語,您可以點擊螢幕底部的地球圖示選擇您喜歡的語言。(操作說明)值得注意的是,本文所包含的前瞻性陳述是基於公司根據目前可獲得的資訊所做出的信念和假設。

  • Forward-looking statements are no guarantees of future performance and are subject to circumstances that may or may not occur. So now without further ado, I would like to turn the floor over to Gustavo to begin the presentation.

    前瞻性陳述並不保證未來的業績,並且會受到可能發生也可能不會發生的情況的影響。那麼現在,事不宜遲,我把發言權交給古斯塔沃,讓他開始演講。

  • Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

    Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Mari, and good morning, everyone. Well, by the way, it's afternoon because it's past noon, past midday. I hope you're all well, and I really appreciate the opportunity to be together for another earnings release presentation. I will briefly comment on the highlights for the quarter and the outlook for our operations. And right after that, we will follow up with a Q&A session.

    謝謝你,瑪麗,大家早安。對了,現在是下午,因為已經過了中午12點。希望大家一切都好,非常感謝有機會再次與大家一起進行財報發表會。我將簡要介紹本季的亮點以及我們業務的展望。隨後,我們將進行問答環節。

  • I would like to start by highlighting that we had a quarter marked by different dynamics in the main regions where we operate, North America and Brazil. We ended the third quarter of 2025 with a very solid performance in North America, reflecting fairly resilient demand for steel in the domestic market. The reduction in imports contributed to an increase in total shipments in both quarterly and annual comparison, reaching more than 10% increase.

    首先我想強調的是,我們主要營運區域北美和巴西在本季呈現不同的發展態勢。我們在2025年第三季末,北美市場表現非常穩健,反映出國內市場對鋼鐵的需求相當強勁。進口量的減少使得季度和年度總出貨量均有所成長,增幅超過 10%。

  • In addition, once again, the North America segment had a record share in our results, accounting for 65% of consolidated EBITDA in the period. Meanwhile, in Brazil, in Q3, the local market continued to be heavily impacted by the excessive influx of imported steel. The import penetration rate remains above 6 million tons in 2025, which accounts for 29% of domestic sales, reinforcing the urgent need for measures that can effectively protect the Brazilian steel industry and domestic jobs.

    此外,北美業務部門再次在我們的業績中佔據創紀錄的份額,佔該期間合併 EBITDA 的 65%。同時,在巴西,第三季當地市場持續受到進口鋼鐵過量湧入的嚴重影響。到 2025 年,進口滲透率仍將超過 600 萬噸,佔國內銷售額的 29%,凸顯了採取有效措施保護巴西鋼鐵業和國內就業的迫切需求。

  • Given this landscape, I will highlight the internationalization and geographic diversification as important strategic differentiators for our business. And finally, I would also like to highlight the progress of the sustainable mining project in Miguel Burnier, which has reached 90% physical completion. Equipment commissioning and hot testing has already begun and the integrated operation of the project is scheduled to start in early 2026.

    有鑑於此,我將重點放在國際化和地理多元化是我們業務的重要策略差異化因素。最後,我還想重點介紹米格爾布爾尼耶永續採礦計畫的進度,該計畫已完成 90%。設備調試和熱測試已經開始,該項目的綜合運行計劃於 2026 年初開始。

  • I will now turn the floor to Japur, who will give us more details on the financial highlights and the impacts of the current scenario in the Brazilian market in our results. Over to you, Japur.

    現在我將把發言權交給 Japur,他將為我們詳細介紹財務亮點以及當前巴西市場狀況對我們業績的影響。接下來就交給你了,賈普爾。

  • Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

    Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

  • Thank you, Gustavo. Hello, everyone. It's always a great pleasure to be here with you for another earnings conference call. We ended the third quarter posting an EBITDA of BRL2.7 billion, 7% higher quarter-on-quarter. The positive highlights, well, they were mentioned by Gustavo. We have the continuous growth of our results in the North America segment, driven by higher steel prices and more shipments compared to prior periods and the recovery of results in the South American segment, which together more than offset the decline in results that we unfortunately experienced in Brazil.

    謝謝你,古斯塔沃。大家好。很高興能再次與大家一起參加財報電話會議。第三季末,我們實現 EBITDA 27 億雷亞爾,季增 7%。至於積極的方面,古斯塔沃已經提到過了。在北美地區,由於鋼價上漲和出貨量較以往有所增加,我們的業績持續增長;同時,南美地區的業績也出現復甦,這兩項增長加起來足以彌補我們在巴西不幸遭遇的業績下滑。

  • During this Q3, we generated a free cash flow of BRL1 billion, converting 37% of our EBITDA into cash, reversing a trend that we have been seeing in the prior quarters of cash consumption in third quarters. There was an important working capital release of BRL300 million, enabling us to reduce our cash conversion cycle, which was above 80 days. And now in Q3, it was down to 78 days, 6 days less than in the second quarter.

    在第三季度,我們產生了 10 億雷亞爾的自由現金流,將 EBITDA 的 37% 轉化為現金,扭轉了前幾季第三季現金消耗的趨勢。該公司獲得了 3 億雷亞爾的重要營運資金釋放,使我們能夠將現金週轉週期縮短至 80 天以上。而到了第三季度,這一數字下降到了 78 天,比第二季度減少了 6 天。

  • Our leverage measured by net debt over EBITDA, given the cash generation we had in Q3 was reduced to 0.81x. Because of that, and since we are talking about leverage, we announced yesterday a make-whole call of our 2030 bond, which had an outstanding amount of $480 million, and this will collaborate for our gross debt by year-end, considering the make-whole of the bond. And also considering other maturities that we have scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year, we should have a significant reduction in our gross debt that should end the year at around BRL14 billion.

    鑑於我們第三季的現金流,以淨債務與 EBITDA 比率衡量的槓桿率已降至 0.81 倍。因此,既然我們談到了槓桿率,我們昨天宣布了對 2030 年到期債券的全額贖回計劃,該債券未償還金額為 4.8 億美元,考慮到債券的全額贖回,這將有助於降低我們年底的總債務。此外,考慮到我們今年第四季還有其他到期債務,我們的總債務應該會大幅減少,到年底應該會降至約 140 億雷亞爾。

  • In terms of capital allocation and our CapEx, our investments totaled BRL1.7 billion this quarter, 60% of which earmarked for projects to boost the competitiveness of our assets, particularly the mining project, as mentioned by Gustavo. In addition, I would like to emphasize information that we presented during our Investor Day on October 1. That's when we announced the CapEx guidance for 2026 of BRL4.7 billion, significant 22% reduction below what we had forecast for 2025.

    就資本配置和資本支出而言,本季我們的投資總額為 17 億雷亞爾,其中 60% 指定用於提高我們資產競爭力的項目,特別是古斯塔沃提到的採礦項目。此外,我想強調我們在10月1日投資者日上展示的資訊。當時我們公佈了 2026 年資本支出指引目標為 47 億雷亞爾,比我們先前預測的 2025 年資本支出大幅減少了 22%。

  • Based on the results for the period, we approved the distribution of dividends in the amount of BRL0.28 per share at Gerdau S.A. and BRL0.19 per share at Metallurgica Gerdau. With regard to share buybacks, we have already achieved 88% of Gerdau S.A.'s 2025 program, which represents 2.9% of the company's outstanding shares or an investment of BRL902 million that we returned to our shareholders.

    根據該期間的業績,我們批准向 Gerdau S.A. 每股派發 0.28 雷亞爾的股息,向 Metallurgica Gerdau 每股派發 0.19 雷亞爾的股息。關於股票回購,我們已經完成了 Gerdau S.A. 2025 年計畫的 88%,相當於公司已發行股份的 2.9%,即 9.02 億雷亞爾的投資,我們已將這些投資返還給了股東。

  • If we sum it up and include in this quarter what we invested considering dividends and share buybacks, in Q3, we had a payout of 75% of our net income, more than double what is established in our policy, in our bylaws. The significant capital return to the shareholders happened without sacrificing our leverage. We actually improved our net debt over EBITDA ratio this quarter and maintaining investments, which are fundamental for Gerdau to continue to create value for our shareholders in the future.

    如果將本季的投資(包括股利和股票回購)匯總起來,那麼在第三季度,我們的股利佔淨收入的 75%,是公司政策和章程規定金額的兩倍多。在不犧牲槓桿率的情況下,股東獲得了可觀的資本回報。本季度,我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 比率實際上有所改善,並且我們維持了投資,這對於 Gerdau 未來繼續為股東創造價值至關重要。

  • I will end here, and I will join you later for the Q&A session.

    我就先說到這裡,我稍後會參加問答環節。

  • Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

    Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Japur. So let's speak a little about the expectation for the coming months and for '26. In North America, we continue to see stable steel demand at high levels with order backlogs at healthy levels and above the historical average with a possible negative impact on shipments linked to the typical seasonality of a fourth quarter.

    謝謝你,Japur。那麼,讓我們來談談對未來幾個月和 2026 年的預期。在北美,我們繼續看到鋼鐵需求穩定在高位,訂單積壓量處於健康水平,高於歷史平均水平,但與第四季度的典型季節性因素相關的出貨量可能會受到負面影響。

  • Although the scenario for 2026 is still taking shape, we have a positive outlook for steel demand in the North American market, driven by the performance of the solar power, data center and infrastructure sectors with a projected continued decline in imports prioritizing the use of steel produced locally.

    儘管 2026 年的情況仍在形成中,但我們對北美市場的鋼鐵需求持樂觀態度,這主要得益於太陽能、資料中心和基礎設施行業的良好表現,預計進口將持續下降,優先使用本地生產的鋼鐵。

  • Meanwhile, in Brazil, the domestic market is expected to be negatively impacted in the fourth quarter by the typical end of year seasonality. For 2026, the outlook is also uncertain. But we are slightly optimistic with the progress of some trade defense mechanisms to be adopted by the government based on a solid dialogue that the sector is having with the authorities.

    同時,巴西國內市場預計將在第四季受到典型的年末季節性因素的負面影響。2026年的前景也充滿不確定性。但我們對政府將要採取的一些貿易保護機制的進展持略微樂觀的態度,這些機制是基於該行業與當局進行的深入對話而製定的。

  • We also believe in a slight recovery of the automotive and industrial sectors as well as stability in the civil construction sector. In view of this market scenario, we continue to boost internal operating efficiency and cost management initiatives.

    我們也相信汽車和工業領域會略有復甦,而土木建築領域會保持穩定。鑑於當前的市場情勢,我們將持續加強內部營運效率和成本管理措施。

  • I will now hand over to Mari, and we will be available myself and Japur to answer your questions and queries. Thank you.

    現在我將把發言權交給瑪麗,我和賈普爾將隨時為您解答疑問。謝謝。

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Gustavo and Japur. So now we will start our Q&A session.

    謝謝古斯塔沃和賈普爾。現在我們開始問答環節。

  • Rodolfo De Angele, JPMorgan.

    Rodolfo De Angele,摩根大通。

  • Rodolfo Angele - Analyst

    Rodolfo Angele - Analyst

  • Well, I have two questions. First, I mean, I would like to hear more or I would like to give you -- I would like you to give us more details about what needs to happen? What are the strategies that will lead to changes in this very challenging scenario in Brazil for the business. And also along the same lines, we noted that there was an increase in exports, and this came as a surprise to me.

    我有兩個問題。首先,我的意思是,我想聽更多,或者我想給你——我想請你提供更多關於需要發生的事情的細節?在巴西當前充滿挑戰的商業環境下,哪些策略能帶來改變?同樣地,我們也注意到出口有所成長,這讓我感到很驚訝。

  • So the question is whether this is part of a reaction that is under your control, speaking mostly about Brazil. And my other question is about prices in the US. We heard about price increases last week, especially for merchants. And apparently, there wasn't a follow-up. I don't know. I just want to understand if something happened and what we could expect going forward. So that's all.

    所以問題是,這是否是你能夠控制的反應的一部分,主要指的是巴西的情況。我的另一個問題是關於美國的物價。我們上週聽說了物價上漲的消息,尤其是商家的價格上漲。但顯然,並沒有後續跟進。我不知道。我只是想了解是否發生了什麼事,以及我們接下來可能會面臨什麼。就這些了。

  • Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

    Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

  • Rodolfo, let me start. I'm just finishing writing down some notes about your question. So I'll start answering the question and then Japur will complement. In Brazil, I think we reached a limit in terms of measures that could allow us to seek for further competitiveness and reduce costs, given a scenario where we have 30% of imported goods coming into the country.

    魯道夫,讓我先開始。我正在整理一些關於你問題的筆記。那我先回答問題,然後賈普爾會補充說明。我認為,在巴西,考慮到目前有 30% 的商品依賴進口,我們在尋求進一步提高競爭力和降低成本方面已經達到了極限。

  • I mean, we've always tried to get further productivity to reduce SG&A, et cetera, et cetera. This has been continuous. But what can we do now to cut more shifts or decrease volumes or shipments? It came to a point when this is no longer so effective. Therefore, the major change that we should have in Brazil is a trade defense.

    我的意思是,我們一直努力提高生產效率,以減少銷售、管理及行政費用等等。這種情況一直持續不斷。但是我們現在可以採取哪些措施來減少班次、減少工作量或減少出貨量呢?到了某個時候,這種方法就不再那麼有效了。因此,巴西應該進行的主要變革是建立貿易防禦體系。

  • I know that with time, Gerdau could probably do more things. We can grow on the ore side. We could even look for recycling some of our capital in Brazil. I mean there are things that we could do. But in the short term, there isn't much more we can do or I don't think anything could change the scenario, except for the trade defense.

    我知道隨著時間的推移,格爾道或許能做更多的事。我們可以在礦石領域發展壯大。我們甚至可以考慮在巴西回收部分資金。我的意思是,我們可以做一些事情。但就短期而言,我們能做的並不多,或者說除了貿易防禦之外,我認為沒有什麼能改變這種局面。

  • Trade defense, I think I can mention a few points that I believe led to some progress. Well, first of all, and I know that you've been monitoring this in the past two years. When we talked about trade defense, there were some dissenting views about different industrial sectors of the economy and also customers, some against and some in favor of the trade defense. But this is a thing that got everybody by surprise.

    關於貿易防禦,我認為我可以提幾點,我認為這些方面取得了一些進展。首先,我知道你在過去兩年裡一直在關注這件事。當我們討論貿易保護時,經濟的不同產業部門以及消費者對此有一些不同的看法,有些人反對貿易保護,有些人則支持。但這件事卻讓所有人都感到驚訝。

  • So there were significant changes. The entire commercial sector, machinery and equipment, everyone understood that if something more structural is not done, the Brazilian industry will just be over. So we have to work together with the different ministries and even with President Lula, that something has to be done.

    所以發生了重大變化。整個商業領域、機械設備產業,所有人都明白,如果不採取更具結構性的措施,巴西工業將不復存在。所以我們必須與各部會,甚至與盧拉總統一起努力,必須採取一些措施。

  • It's also necessary that there should be a deeper involvement of the President of the country because I think he is the only individual that can seek for solutions that can suit different interests. In terms of having a better commercial relationship, a trade relationship at the same time in China, but at the same time, introducing mechanisms that can allow the Brazilian industry to survive.

    此外,國家總統也應該更深入參與其中,因為我認為只有他才能尋求兼顧各方利益的解決方案。在與中國建立更好的商業關係和貿易關係的同時,也要引入能讓巴西工業生存下去的機制。

  • I think the path is being paved so that in a not-so-distant future, we can find some balance between exports and imports and our share of the domestic market. So I hope that things can move on. I mean steel production in Brazil, Japur can talk about that.

    我認為,我們正在鋪就一條道路,以便在不久的將來,我們可以在出口和進口以及我們在國內市場的份額之間找到某種平衡。所以我希望事情能繼續向前發展。我是說巴西的鋼鐵生產,Japur可以談談這個。

  • And the other aspect is North America. Of course, you talked about merchants, et cetera. But we understand that the metal spread has already reached a level where we don't see the possibility of major increases. Scrap is flat because most US scrap buyers like Turkey, they are also being pressured by semi-finished goods coming from China. So it will be -- it will make more sense for them to buy the billet almost ready-made rather than buying scrap. So with flat prices of scrap at this current level of prices, the spread in our view, I think it's healthy. So I don't see a lot of room for further expansion.

    另一方面是北美地區。當然,你們也談到了商人等等。但我們認為金屬價差已經達到一定水平,不太可能大幅上漲。廢料價格持平,因為大多數美國廢料買家(如土耳其買家)也面臨來自中國的半成品的壓力。所以情況就是這樣——對他們來說,購買幾乎是成品的鋼坯比購買廢料更有意義。因此,在目前廢料價格水準穩定的情況下,我們認為價差是健康的。所以我認為進一步擴張的空間不大。

  • On the other hand, we are working with our mills at full capacity. Demand remains sound, not only it sound in the short run, Rodolfo. But when you look at the coming quarters, everything leads to believe that this demand will remain as such.

    另一方面,我們的工廠正在滿載運作。需求依然強勁,不僅是短期內如此,羅多爾福。但展望未來幾個季度,種種跡象表明,這種需求將持續下去。

  • Just to give you an example of that, our centers the amount of steel that we are delivering to data centers is large. And when we look at the number of new data centers being built in the US, it's really staggering. I was just doing some very quick calculation in terms of square meter. The data centers being built in the US correspond to 800 Maracanas or soccer fields. That's the amount of data centers that are currently being built in the US. And this will continue to happen because of AI and technology in general.

    舉個例子來說,我們供應給資料中心的鋼材數量很大。當我們看到美國正在建造的新資料中心的數量時,真是令人震驚。我只是簡單地計算了一下平方公尺數。美國正在興建的資料中心相當於 800 個馬拉卡納體育場或足球場。這是美國目前正在建置的資料中心數量。而由於人工智慧和科技的進步,這種情況還會繼續發生。

  • If you look at renewable energy, and there is still some incentives, and we are still delivering a lot of steel. Therefore, in the North America segment, things are very much balanced. I'm not concerned with the fact that some competitors announced increases. And the competitor that you mentioned didn't follow on the same footsteps, but reinstated my view, I don't think that there is any environment that will lead to further dilution of metal spread in terms of what is happening there at the moment.

    如果你看看再生能源,你會發現仍然有一些激勵措施,而且我們仍然在大量生產鋼鐵。因此,在北美市場,情況非常平衡。我並不擔心一些競爭對手宣布漲價。你提到的那位競爭對手並沒有效法我們的做法,但這也印證了我的觀點,我認為就目前的情況來看,沒有任何環境會導致金屬價差進一步稀釋。

  • But Japur, I think there is something related to exports that I think is over to you.

    但是 Japur,我認為出口方面有些事情應該由你來處理。

  • Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

    Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

  • So about exports -- exports usually occur by sea. So one or another ship doesn't really impact one quarter compared to the next. Last quarter, we exported 17% of our sales. And this quarter, shipments were 20%. So this is pretty much in line with our operations. So there is nothing out of the ordinary. There are some shipments that sometimes if they are not happening in the end of the month, they will happen right in the next month. So there is nothing really different when we compare that to our results. But I would also like to answer a few questions that I saw in the chat about prices and results in North America.

    那麼關於出口——出口通常是透過海運進行的。所以,一艘或另一艘船對一個季度的影響並不比對下一個季度的影響大多少。上個季度,我們出口銷售額的17%。本季出貨量為 20%。所以這與我們的營運方式基本一致。所以一切如常。有些貨物如果月底沒能到貨,下個月就會到貨。所以,與我們的結果相比,並沒有什麼實質的差異。但我還想回答一些我在聊天中看到的關於北美價格和結果的問題。

  • It's important to remember that there was an exchange variation issue in Brazil because there was a depreciation of the US dollar. So in dollar terms, what was the price variation in the market. And there is also the issue of mix. I mean, in terms of structural, we were able to capture some price throughout the quarter and the half year.

    需要注意的是,由於美元貶值,巴西出現了匯率波動問題。那麼,以美元計,市場價格波動幅度是多少?此外,還有混合的問題。我的意思是,從結構上看,我們在本季和上半年都獲得了一些價格優勢。

  • But thinking about other products like SBQ and rebars for some clients, we have agreements that link the sale price to the cost of scrap. And in some sense, that cost has gone down in the US. So in dollar terms, the price was down a bit. So if you look at the US dollar mix, there was a variation of 1.5% in the quarter in regards to prices in North America.

    但考慮到一些客戶的其他產品,例如 SBQ 和鋼筋,我們與一些客戶簽訂了協議,將銷售價格與廢料成本掛鉤。從某種意義上說,這種成本在美國已經下降了。所以以美元計算,價格略有下降。因此,如果你看一下美元匯率,你會發現本季北美地區的價格波動幅度為 1.5%。

  • Rodolfo Angele - Analyst

    Rodolfo Angele - Analyst

  • Excellent. And congrats. I mean I was just talking to Mari. You're doing some excellent job.

    出色的。恭喜!我剛才還在跟瑪莉聊天呢。你做得非常出色。

  • Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

    Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, she just smiled. I think she's thanking you.

    是的,她只是笑了笑。我想她是在感謝你。

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Ricardo Monegaglia, Safra Bank.

    里卡多·莫內加利亞,薩夫拉銀行。

  • Ricardo Monegaglia - Analyst

    Ricardo Monegaglia - Analyst

  • I also have two questions. My first question is about rebar antidumping in the US. We talk a lot about antidumping of flat steels in Brazil, but I think there might be another decision coming on November 12 about antidumping of rebar. So I would just like to learn more about what will happen since -- once this is implemented.

    我還有兩個問題。我的第一個問題是關於美國鋼筋反傾銷政策的。我們經常談論巴西對扁鋼的反傾銷,但我認為 11 月 12 日可能會有一項關於鋼筋反傾銷的決定出台。所以我想了解一下,一旦這項措施實施,會發生什麼事。

  • I know it's not so relevant vis-a-vis the other segments where you operate. But maybe do you think we could expect something new in terms of the preliminary, no -- adhesion or maybe if -- maybe there will be an impact in case it's positive next year? And whether you think that the application of this dumping could probably impact price increases, not only for rebars but other products as well.

    我知道這與你經營的其他領域關係不大。但您認為我們是否可以期待在初步方面出現一些新情況,例如——黏附情況,或者——如果明年情況樂觀,可能會產生一些影響?您是否認為這種傾銷行為可能會影響價格上漲,不僅是鋼筋,還包括其他產品?

  • And the second question is about capital allocation for dividend payout and buybacks. There has been some discussion about changes in the taxation. So how are you dealing with this topic in-house, given the fact that your cash position is very robust, you generated a lot of cash in the third quarter, and I think you generate just as much cash in the fourth quarter? So should we expect any changes or maybe a dividend payout or a more aggressive buyback going forward, given this general backdrop of sound results and a change in the dividend payout policy?

    第二個問題是關於股利支付和股票回購的資本配置。關於稅改方面已經​​進行了一些討論。那麼,鑑於貴公司現金狀況非常穩健,第三季產生了大量現金,我認為第四季也會產生同樣多的現金,貴公司內部是如何處理這個問題的呢?鑑於公司業績整體良好且股利支付政策有所改變,我們是否應該預期未來會出現一些變化,例如派發股利或更積極的股票回購?

  • Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

    Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thank you for your questions. I will start speaking about rebars in North America. We have been monitoring the possible implementation of the antidumping for rebars in the US. And I mean even though rebar is only accounts for 10% of our product mix, depending on the quarter, now it's closer to 10% of our mix is rebar.

    謝謝您的提問。我將開始談談北美地區的鋼筋問題。我們一直在關注美國可能對鋼筋實施反傾銷措施的情況。我的意思是,雖然鋼筋只占我們產品組合的 10%,但根據季度不同,現在鋼筋在我們產品組合中的佔比接近 10%。

  • But there are two positive aspects. First is the obvious impact in our shipments, but also related to the competition because some competitors, they can produce both merchants and rebars. So if we start seeing a movement where rebars are better for these companies to produce, they may replace merchants by rebars. And our mills are more focused and they have a vocation for merchants. So therefore, there will be more room for us to sell products because of our focus. So we've been monitoring the progress.

    但有兩個正面的方面。首先,對我們的出貨量產生了顯而易見的影響,也與競爭有關,因為一些競爭對手既可以生產鋼筋,也可以生產鋼絞線。因此,如果我們開始看到鋼筋對這些公司來說生產更有利的趨勢,他們可能會用鋼筋取代商人。我們的工廠更專注,它們致力於服務商人。因此,由於我們專注於此,我們將有更大的空間來銷售產品。因此,我們一直在關注進展。

  • But now to your second question, you asked whether this could be like an example for other authorities vis-a-vis the competition. I don't think that's very likely because the discussions are very technical, and it takes into account the different realities of the different countries and markets. And these antidumping investigations, they have, first of all, to prove dumping. They have to prove damage caused by dumping and the correlation between the two.

    現在回答你的第二個問題,你問這是否可以作為其他機構在競爭中藉鏡的範例。我認為這不太可能,因為討論非常技術性,而且考慮到了不同國家和市場的實際情況。而這些反傾銷調查,首先必須證明有傾銷行為。他們必須證明傾倒垃圾造成的損害以及兩者之間的關聯性。

  • So I don't think this will have an impact in Brazil, but well, we might be even hopeful that in terms of margins and results, they may have a positive effect for us. I mean, this period of the year is a bit complex because there is a lot of seasonality in the US in this period, mostly due to climate. Therefore, I think it's difficult to imagine that there will be significant price moves given the current period of the year.

    所以我認為這不會對巴西產生影響,但是,我們甚至可以抱持希望,就利潤和結果而言,這可能會對我們產生正面的影響。我的意思是,每年的這個時候情況比較複雜,因為美國在這個時期季節性變化很大,這主要是由於氣候造成的。因此,我認為鑑於目前的時期,很難想像會出現大幅的價格波動。

  • Now moving to your second question on capital allocation. We've been very vocal, both in terms of our last Investor Day and our last earnings release presentation because at the moment, Gerdau's focus has been to privilege buyback of shares over extraordinary events. This has been so true that this year, we already invested almost BRL1 billion in buybacks. That was part of the 2025 program. We still have to conclude the program. And if we continue to have strong cash generation going forward in the next quarters, the idea is certainly to privilege buyback over dividend payout.

    現在回答你關於資本配置的第二個問題。我們一直非常積極地表達我們的觀點,無論是在上次的投資者日還是上次的收益發布會上,因為目前,Gerdau 的重點是優先回購股票,而不是應對特殊事件。事實的確如此,今年我們已經在股票回購上投入了近 10 億雷亞爾。那是2025年計畫的一部分。我們還需要完成這個專案。如果未來幾季我們繼續保持強勁的現金流,那麼我們的想法當然是優先考慮股票回購而不是分紅。

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

    卡洛斯·德阿爾巴,摩根士丹利。

  • Carlos Alba - Analyst

    Carlos Alba - Analyst

  • (audio in progess) (microphone inaccessible)

    (音訊正在播放)(麥克風無法使用)

  • Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

    Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

  • Carlos, thank you for the question. I think that I'll link your answer with Rodolfo's question. In the short term, what needed to be done in the operation to adjust our shipments to the current reality of 30% of steel imports, everything has been done incrementally. Next year, we will pursue some additional performance gains. And there is one relevant factor for next year, which is the start-up of the mining project, which will bring an important benefit for our EBITDA.

    卡洛斯,謝謝你的提問。我想我會把你的回答和羅多爾夫的問題連結起來。短期內,為了調整我們的出貨量以適應目前鋼鐵進口量佔比 30% 的現實情況,營運中需要做的一切工作都已逐步完成。明年,我們將繼續追求更高的效能提升。明年還有一個相關因素,那就是採礦計畫的啟動,這將為我們的 EBITDA 帶來重要利益。

  • So we understand that for 2026 compared to 2025, we believe that we're going to have the Brazil operation performing better with more competitiveness. If the Brazilian government does not implement additional trade defense mechanisms, we will need to accelerate our plans to transform Gerdau in the midterm.

    因此,我們認為,與 2025 年相比,2026 年巴西業務的營運將會更加出色,更具競爭力。如果巴西政府不實施額外的貿易保護機制,我們將需要在中期內加快對 Gerdau 進行改造的計畫。

  • We will need to review more in depth our routes of production, whether it makes sense to continue to maintain three production routes as we have today. I'd like to remind you, we have one production route for scrap, one for the integrated mill, Ouro Branco, another one for charcoal. So this is a topic that we will need to revisit.

    我們需要更深入地審查我們的生產路線,看看繼續像現在這樣維持三條生產路線是否合理。我想提醒各位,我們有一條廢料生產路線,一條綜合磨坊 Ouro Branco 的生產路線,還有一條木炭生產路線。所以,這是一個我們需要再次探討的話題。

  • We will also revisit the mining efforts, whether it makes sense to continue to grow and produce more our, we will need to review more in depth our footprint in Brazil because we believe that we have an opportunity over the next few years to drive some changes, and we might have to accelerate them. So the big question mark now is to what extent we will need to accelerate Gerdau's transformation plans in Brazil so that we can be on equal footing to compete with subsidized Chinese steel?

    我們還將重新審視採礦業務,看看是否有必要繼續擴大規模並生產更多產品。我們需要更深入地審查我們在巴西的業務佈局,因為我們相信在未來幾年我們有機會推動一些變革,我們可能必須加快這些變革。所以現在最大的問題是,我們需要在多大程度上加快蓋爾道在巴西的轉型計劃,才能與獲得補貼的中國鋼鐵企業站在同一起跑線上競爭?

  • This transformation can be accelerated for some reasons. If we show that the results of North America will remain strong, this will give us more momentum to accelerate that. I would say that even our CapEx, we might add more CapEx or not over the next 5- to 10 years, depending on the results to accelerate this transformation. So the plans for the next 10- to 15 years already.

    這種轉變在某些方面可能會加速。如果我們證明北美地區的業績將保持強勁,這將為我們帶來更大的動力來加速這一進程。我認為,即使是我們的資本支出,在未來 5 到 10 年內,我們是否增加資本支出也取決於加速轉型的結果。所以未來10到15年的計畫已經制定好了。

  • So the big point is to what extent we will accelerate them. We wish to improve our footprint in the United States. So we have to decide where to allocate capital to accelerate the changes in Brazil. That's a topic that we have been developing and debating. So that would be my general answer.

    所以關鍵在於我們將在多大程度上加速這些進程。我們希望擴大在美國的業務規模。因此,我們必須決定將資金分配到哪裡,以加速巴西的變革。這是一個我們一直在探討和辯論的議題。這就是我的整體回答。

  • Carlos Alba - Analyst

    Carlos Alba - Analyst

  • You kind of anticipated the question that I would have for Japur. I don't know whether he or you could answer. How should we understand the sequential benefit of the iron ore project that is almost ready?

    你似乎已經預料到我會問賈普爾的問題了。我不知道他或你能回答這個問題。我們該如何理解這個即將完工的鐵礦石計畫的後續效益?

  • Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

    Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

  • Carlos. Well, you joined the conference call well identified with our theme here, but jokes aside. Gustavo kind of spoke about this. We are doing some tests for crushing and some other initiatives. And that's the dry part of the project. And in the end of the year, we'll have the wet part of processing, and we'll start to ramp up in the end of the year and beginning of next year.

    卡洛斯。嗯,你參加這次電話會議的主題與我們今天的主題非常契合,不過玩笑歸玩笑。古斯塔沃也談過這件事。我們正在進行一些破碎測試和其他一些項目。這就是專案中枯燥乏味的部分。年底我們將進入濕加工階段,我們將在年底和明年年初開始逐步提高產量。

  • The main benefit we'll have in the first year will be the cost reduction of the mix in the blast furnace. It's not going to be integral in year 1 because we're going to have a learning curve in the mine to operate the new complex and also in the Ouro Branco mill to use the new product mix. So we don't expect to have a substantial reduction in the first quarter of operation of mining. But over the year, we understand that we will convert to a cash cost of $30 per tonne, which is what we disclosed in the project.

    第一年我們獲得的主要好處是高爐混合料成本的降低。第一年它不會發揮關鍵作用,因為我們需要在礦山學習如何操作新的綜合設施,還需要在 Ouro Branco 選礦廠學習如何使用新的產品組合。因此,我們預計採礦作業第一季不會大幅下降。但據我們了解,一年後,我們將把現金成本降低到每噸 30 美元,這與我們在專案中揭露的內容一致。

  • And this is going to be an important lever for our blast furnace. We will reduce our metal basket. How much ore we use to have a reduction in the blast furnace. And this is estimated for year 1, not just reducing the metal load in the blast furnace, but also the amount of coal that we used to produce the same amount of steel.

    這將是我們高爐的重要槓桿。我們將減少金屬籃子的數量。為了在煉鐵高爐中減少礦石用量,我們需要使用多少礦石?這是第一年的估計,不僅減少了高爐中的金屬負荷,還減少了生產相同數量鋼鐵所使用的煤炭量。

  • We are reducing the cost of the metal load, but also increasing the percentage of iron in the metal load. Since we're going to have a higher concentration of iron in that same volume in the blast furnace, we'll produce more steel with this consuming less coal to produce an equal amount of steel.

    我們降低了金屬負荷的成本,但同時也提高了金屬負荷中鐵的比例。由於高爐中相同體積的鐵濃度更高,因此生產相同數量的鋼,我們將消耗更少的煤來生產更多的鋼。

  • In year 1, we expect to have about BRL400 million of benefit -- that's what we mentioned in our Investor Day, particularly with the cost driver and also selling iron ore to third parties. And after that, we should have the full benefit of the project, BRL1 billion, BRL1.1 billion with the price levels for ore that we see today, close to $100 per tonne.

    第一年,我們預計將獲得約 4 億雷亞爾的收益——這是我們在投資者日上提到的,特別是考慮到成本驅動因素以及向第三方出售鐵礦石。之後,按照目前礦石價格水準(接近每噸 100 美元),我們應該能夠獲得該項目的全部收益,即 10 億至 11 億雷亞爾。

  • Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

    Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

  • And Carlos, I'm not sure I made this comment before. So here it goes. The mining rights we are exploring now at Miguel Burnier is one of the several mining rights we have in the state of Minas Gerais. So it's a mining right, which is very significant in terms of the quality of the ore, but also in terms of volume that we can explore in the coming years. This project specifically ensures the production of high-quality iron ore for a period longer than 40 years.

    卡洛斯,我不確定我之前是否說過這句話。好了,開始吧。我們目前正在勘探的米格爾·布爾尼爾礦區的採礦權是我們米納斯吉拉斯州擁有的幾項採礦權之一。所以這是一項採礦權,對於礦石的品質以及我們未來幾年可以勘探的礦石量來說,都非常重要。該計畫旨在確保40年以上時間高品質鐵礦石的生產。

  • And we also have the possibility in the future to mine more ore because the amount of ore in this asset is very large and we have other mining rights. And according to your question, we can decide to explore those or monetize those in time. If we understand that this is indeed an opportunity, we will not have to rely on CapEx disbursement to buy mining rights. We've had those mining rights for many, many years now. And those are high-quality mining rights with a good location, a good geography in the state of Minas Gerais, okay?

    而且,未來我們還有可能開採更多礦石,因為礦藏的礦石量非常大,我們還有其他採礦權。根據您的問題,我們可以決定何時探索這些領域或將其商業化。如果我們意識到這確實是一個機會,我們就無需依靠資本支出來購買採礦權。我們擁有這些採礦權已經很多很多年了。而這些都是位於米納斯吉拉斯州,地理位置優越,環境優良的高品質採礦權,懂嗎?

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Caio Ribeiro, Bank of America.

    卡約·裡貝羅,美國銀行。

  • Caio Ribeiro - Analyst

    Caio Ribeiro - Analyst

  • My question would be about the infrastructure package. There's a considerable amount of resources to be disbursed. We're having the sound chopped, we apologize for that. I would like to hear from you, your expectations over the next 10 months. What do you expect regarding the remaining resources? And also, -- we apologize, but the sound is cutting a lot. How do you see this possibly impacting your operations in Canada, in the United States and the possible decision to invest in a project in Mexico?

    我的問題是關於基礎設施包的。有大量資源需要分配。我們正在對聲音進行處理,對此我們深表歉意。我想聽聽你們的看法,你們對未來10個月有什麼期望。您對剩餘資源有何預期?另外,很抱歉,聲音斷斷續續的。您認為這可能會對您在加拿大、美國的營運以及在墨西哥投資項目的潛在決定產生哪些影響?

  • Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

    Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, Caio, the sound was chopping quite a lot for us, but I think I could get your questions. This is important information that you bring. Indeed, 60% of what we call of the infrastructure bill is still to be disbursed, the only this approval of this package of incentives, the only thing that we imagine would happen differently was that this would be spent faster.

    卡約,我們這邊聲音斷斷續續的,但我想我應該可以回答你的問題。你帶來的這些資訊很重要。事實上,我們所說的基礎設施法案中還有 60% 的資金尚未撥付,唯一可能改變的是,如果這項激勵措施獲得批准,資金的使用速度將會更快。

  • But then we understood that considering the US bureaucracy, the detailed approval of the budget, which depends on involving some states, municipal legislations, well, things would take longer than we expected. So the budget was not dispersed in the time line planned. But undoubtedly, this will be renewed, and this will be extended because until US infrastructure goes back to an acceptable level to support the economic and industrial activity that the current administration expects, I am totally convinced that these segments will continue to develop.

    但後來我們意識到,考慮到美國的官僚作風,預算的詳細批准取決於一些州和市政立法的參與,事情會比我們預期的要花費更長的時間。因此,預算並沒有按計劃的時間表分配。但毫無疑問,這種情況將會持續下去,並且會不斷擴大,因為除非美國的基礎設施恢復到足以支持本屆政府所期望的經濟和工業活動的可接受水平,否則我完全相信這些領域將會繼續發展。

  • The main point that it has a connection to your question, that might change is regarding incentives to renewable power. And I'm talking about impacts closer to our business. We continue to deliver a lot of steel. And if we look at our backlog, there is a lot of demand for steel for renewable power, particularly solar power. If the incentives start reducing, there might be smaller or lower demand for power. On the other hand, we see the strategies of the current administration regarding fossil fuel power and the production of oil and gas, and that drives the demand as well, one which is important for our special steel operation.

    它與您的問題相關的、可能會改變的主要一點是關於再生能源的激勵措施。我指的是與我們業務更密切相關的影響。我們持續交付大量鋼材。如果我們看一下我們的積壓訂單,就會發現再生能源(尤其是太陽能發電)對鋼鐵的需求量很大。如果激勵措施開始減少,電力需求可能會減少或降低。另一方面,我們看到現任政府在化石燃料發電和石油天然氣生產方面的策略,這也推動了需求,這對我們的特殊鋼生產至關重要。

  • So there might be a trade. But in terms of having a solid demand for our business, we are not concerned. And the USMCA will be approved eventually. It's hard to say, given the way the President Trump conducts the current administration. But I see that Mexico is preparing for that, considering what the US considers of what is negotiable. So in terms of concerns about our business, if Mexico has the right conditions to ensure that all of the steel that will translate into some kind of component to be exported to the United States that it will be melted locally.

    所以或許可以進行交易。但就我們業務的穩定需求而言,我們並不擔心。美墨加協定最終會獲得批准。鑑於川普總統目前的執政方式,很難說。但我認為墨西哥正在為此做準備,考慮到美國認為哪些事情是可以談判的。因此,就我們業務的擔憂而言,如果墨西哥具備合適的條件,確保所有將轉化為某種組件並出口到美國的鋼鐵都能在當地熔化。

  • In other words, Mexico is implementing mechanisms to avoid the triangulation of Chinese steel going through Mexico and then going to the United States. So there will be a balance among all three countries and very soon, and this will benefit us, just like the agreement was beneficial while it was in force. We have some doubts regarding the real possibility of executing that investment in special steel that we paralyzed.

    換句話說,墨西哥正在實施相關機制,以避免中國鋼鐵經由墨西哥再運往美國,形成「三角運輸」。因此,三國之間很快就會達到平衡,這將使我們受益,就像協議生效期間對我們有益一樣。我們對先前擱置的特種鋼投資項目能否真正落實抱持一些疑慮。

  • Well, this is not something we'll get out of the draw just after the agreement. We will need to observe if there are other phenomena impacting the local production of automotive engines in North America because the decision to invest a relevant amount, I mean, this could -- this could make us slow in other capital disbursements that we think are relevant. So we'll be careful. So this is our general approach. Okay.

    嗯,這不是我們達成協議後就能立即從抽籤中獲得的東西。我們需要觀察是否有其他現象影響北美汽車引擎的本地生產,因為決定投資相關金額,我的意思是,這可能會——這可能會減緩我們認為相關的其他資本支出。所以我們會小心謹慎。這就是我們的整體方法。好的。

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Daniel Sasson, Itau BBA.

    Daniel Sasson,Itau BBA。

  • Daniel Sasson - Analyst

    Daniel Sasson - Analyst

  • My first question is related to something you mentioned on Miguel Burnier, which is very important for the company, but I would also like to mention the other project, which HRC that you started early this year, it ramped up and is now operating at full capacity.

    我的第一個問題與您提到的關於 Miguel Burnier 的事情有關,這對公司來說非常重要。但我也想提一下您今年年初啟動的另一個項目,HRC 已經加速推進,現在正滿載運轉。

  • Could you comment on how much of that additional benefit of BRL400 million that you disclosed during Gerdau Day about the project. How much of that was used in 2025? So I can calculate the additional EBITDA or the delta that will contribute or what will be a building block to improve EBITDA quarter-on-quarter in addition to the Miguel Burnier project. I just want to have a better understanding of the project per se.

    您能否就您在 Gerdau Day 上披露的關於該項目的 4 億雷亞爾額外收益中有多少真正到位做些說明?到 2025 年,其中有多少被使用了?因此,除了 Miguel Burnier 專案之外,我可以計算出額外的 EBITDA 或增量,或者說,除了 Miguel Burnier 專案之外,哪些因素將成為提高 EBITDA 季度環比增長的基石。我只是想更深入地了解這個項目本身。

  • My second question probably addressed to Werneck revisiting your point on capital allocation. I just want to get a better understanding about the US dollar or whether anything changed given the fact that there are more protectionist measures in the US.

    我的第二個問題可能是針對 Werneck 的,再次強調你對資本配置的看法。我只是想更好地了解美元,或者鑑於美國採取了更多保護主義措施,美元是否發生了任何變化。

  • Maybe it seems like Brazil is moving in the same direction in terms of the allocation of $1 in the US and $1 in Brazil, whether it will be reasonable for us to think that investments in the US continue to be on better productivity or enhanced productivity, increase efficiency and you choose different plants from time to time to focus on that improvement or whether in Brazil, like you said, you already did everything in your power to be more and more efficient to face the competition with imported goods.

    或許看起來巴西在美國和巴西的資金分配上也朝著相同的方向發展,1美元投資美國,1美元投資巴西。那麼,我們是否可以合理地認為,美國的投資將繼續致力於提高生產力或增強生產力,提高效率,並且會不時選擇不同的工廠來專注於這種改進?或者,正如你所說,巴西已經竭盡全力提高效率,以應對進口商品的競爭?

  • So would it be fair to say that you would only put more money in Brazil if the scenario leads towards consolidation? Or is there any room to acquire smaller players? Maybe this is easier to justify with (inaudible) given like 25% or 35% of what is consumed here comes from abroad is imported. So I would just like to get your views about capital allocation between regions.

    那麼,如果巴西的經濟情勢朝著整合的方向發展,是否可以這樣說呢?或是還有收購小型公司的空間嗎?也許這樣比較容易解釋(聽不清楚),因為這裡消費的商品有 25% 或 35% 來自國外,都是進口的。所以我想聽聽您對各地區資本配置的看法。

  • Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

    Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

  • Good. Okay, I will start because in my rationale when it comes to capital allocation, I will just pave the way for Japur to elaborate more on the other issues, okay? So we've been doing CapEx for 125 years. So we've had 25 years of experience. We know what it works and what it doesn't work.

    好的。好的,我先來,因為就資本配置而言,我只是想為 Japur 進一步闡述其他問題鋪路,好嗎?所以我們已經從事資本支出125年了。所以我們擁有25年的經驗。我們知道哪些方法有效,哪些無效。

  • So we made a lot of progress in terms of our capacity to analyze investments, pretty much motivated by the questions that you ask us in our interactions with you. Even though we made enormous progress in capital allocation and investment decisions. In general, we noticed that in Brazil, there are more variables that impact our business when compared to North America, a practical example that everybody is facing in the electric side or like payments.

    因此,我們在投資分析能力方面取得了很大的進步,這很大程度上是受到您在與我們互動中提出的問題所激勵的。儘管我們在資本配置和投資決策方面取得了巨大進步。總的來說,我們注意到,與北美相比,巴西有更多變數會影響我們的業務,例如電力方面或支付方面,每個人都會面臨這樣的實際問題。

  • Who would think that there would be this level of energy cuts as we see now? So throughout the years, we learned that it's more difficult to allocate $1 in Brazil than allocating $1 abroad. There are many variables that escape our control. We've been looking at this very carefully because a capital allocation process I mean we will only see returns one-, two- or even three years later.

    誰會想到會出現像現在這樣程度的能源短缺?因此,多年來我們了解到,在巴西分配 1 美元比在國外分配 1 美元要困難得多。有很多因素是我們無法控制的。我們一直在非常仔細地研究這個問題,因為資本配置過程意味著我們只能在一、二甚至三年後才能看到回報。

  • When you look at investments in HRCs, we were very optimistic that when -- once we invested, the market will be there for us. But now the reality is different. So when we think about the next phase, because the project is not over, there's still a third phase of hot-rolled coil that we could implement, but we have to be more careful.

    當我們審視對人力資源公司的投資時,我們非常樂觀地認為,一旦我們投資,市場就會對我們有利。但現在情況不同了。所以當我們考慮下一階段時,因為專案還沒有結束,我們還可以實施第三階段的熱軋捲材,但我們必須更加謹慎。

  • On the other hand, in Brazil, this motivates us to be very careful with our operation. I mean, we've always been very careful with the quality of our operation. And there is one topic that you know very well, blast furnace and coke plant, and there are a lot of companies struggling with that. Our coke plant and our blast furnace, especially the blast furnace 1, and we are seeing year-on-year a dilution in their time lines. I mean we are postponing the stoppages because this gives us some additional breadth in terms of not taking investments from other areas to put in the blast furnace and the coke plant.

    另一方面,在巴西,這促使我們在營運中格外謹慎。我的意思是,我們一直非常注重營運品質。還有一點你非常了解,那就是高爐和焦化廠,很多公司都在這方面遇到了困難。我們的焦化廠和高爐,特別是1號高爐,其生產週期逐年延長。我的意思是,我們推遲停工是因為這樣可以讓我們在不挪用其他領域的投資來建造高爐和焦化廠方面有更大的靈活性。

  • When we look at integrated mills, many companies are having a difficult time to invest $800,000 -- or I mean, $800 million or $1 billion. So the health and breadth we have at Ouro Branco give us the opportunity to produce relevant transformation at Gerdau in the coming years. And this could also lead to much higher competition in Brazil, even to compete with the Chinese in the US, we have lots of opportunities as well.

    當我們審視綜合性工廠時,會發現許多公司很難投資 80 萬美元——或者我的意思是,8 億美元或 10 億美元。因此,Ouro Branco 的健康狀況和規模為我們提供了在未來幾年內對 Gerdau 進行相關變革的機會。這可能會導致巴西的競爭更加激烈,甚至與美國的中國企業競爭,我們也有很多機會。

  • The execution of CapEx in North America is simpler because they do not have the variables that we cannot control in terms of the quality of vendors, civil construction and assembly. We can control that much better. Therefore, in terms of business environment in general, investing $1 in the US today is much easier than here.

    在北美執行資本支出比較簡單,因為他們沒有我們在供應商品質、土木工程和組裝方面無法控制的變數。我們可以更好地控制這一點。因此,就整體商業環境而言,如今在美國投資 1 美元比在這裡投資要容易得多。

  • So we will look at investments in Brazil much more carefully. And I'll say that my demand and Japur's demand is that we look at a portfolio with many opportunities. So how can we select the best among the best. So now I will turn the floor over to Japur because this backdrop also raised questions about HRC, what kind of returns we anticipated, how much we're going to sell, how much -- what would the price be? I mean this is also a very important symbol to the federal government.

    因此,我們將更加謹慎地審視在巴西的投資。我想說,我和 Japur 的要求是,我們要尋找一個有很多機會的投資組合。那麼,我們要如何從最優秀的人中選出最優秀的人呢?現在我將把發言權交給 Japur,因為這種背景也引發了關於 HRC 的問題,我們預期會有什麼樣的回報,我們將賣出多少,價格會是多少?我的意思是,這對聯邦政府來說也是一個非常重要的象徵。

  • Daniel, when we invite the government agents to visit our plants, we show that we already anticipated BRL1 billion of investments. Now all of the shareholders need return. And sometimes we lack enough customers to buy our products. This helps them to really believe and reinforce the fact that the trade mechanisms of defense are very necessary.

    丹尼爾,當我們邀請政府人員參觀我們的工廠時,我們會向他們展示我們已經預料到會有 10 億雷亞爾的投資。現在所有股東都需要回報。有時我們會因為顧客不足而無法購買我們的產品。這有助於他們真正相信並強化這樣一個事實:貿易防禦機制是非常必要的。

  • Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

    Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

  • Okay. Let me just detail some of the things. Where do we get the return from our investment in HRC? Out of the BRL400 million we mentioned, BRL100 million comes from cost reduction, more so in terms of metallic spread. I mean we have a better metallic mix for the entire production volume there and about BRL20 million or BRL30 million is due to fixed cost reduction. So BRL100 million, roughly speaking, is to reach the ramp-up, and we are reaching that number. This past month, we will get close to 100,000 tons of production. This is a record production level in terms of performance and production and costs. We are performing very well.

    好的。讓我詳細說明一下其中的一些事情。我們在HRC的投資能獲得什麼回報?在我們提到的 4 億雷亞爾中,有 1 億雷亞爾來自成本降低,尤其是在金屬價差方面。我的意思是,我們整個生產規模的金屬配比都更好了,大約有 2000 萬到 3000 萬雷亞爾的固定成本降低。因此,粗略估計,需要 1 億雷亞爾才能達到產能爬坡目標,而我們正在達到這個目標。上個月,我們的產量將接近10萬噸。從性能、產量和成本來看,這都是創紀錄的生產水準。我們表現得非常出色。

  • But to produce results, we also need price, not only these results. When we think about HRC prices from the beginning of the year until now, there was a drop of about 15%. So much of the benefit that we had from the other BRL300 million that was an arbitration between the cost of opportunity to sell plates in the foreign market or to sell HRC in the domestic market, an important amount of that benefit was diluted.

    但要取得成果,我們不僅需要考慮成果本身,還要考慮價格。從年初到現在,HRC 的價格下降了約 15%。我們從另外 3 億雷亞爾中獲得的收益,原本是用於權衡在國外市場銷售車牌的機會成本或在國內市場銷售 HRC 的機會成本,但其中很大一部分收益被稀釋了。

  • So if we were thinking about X, now it's X minus 15%. So this is what was quite hurt this year because we are talking about an integrated mill. Therefore, ore costs and coal costs did not move much throughout the year. And this basically the dilution of fixed cost is that moves the needle a little bit in terms of performance. That's why we have to look for prices.

    所以如果我們考慮的是 X,那麼現在就是 X 減 15%。所以,這就是今年受到較大衝擊的原因,因為我們談論的是一家一體化工廠。因此,礦石成本和煤炭成本在全年波動不大。而這基本上就是固定成本的稀釋,這在一定程度上影響了性能。所以我們必須查看價格。

  • Once we have something moving competition-wise, things are improving. But if you look at the big numbers, the US is performing with a margin of 20%, but there was an 11% reduction in exports year-to-date. Brazil that we are running with less than 10% margin or at a loss. We have plus 24% of imported goods in the year. So if we see an evolution in this scenario, we will be able to materialize the benefit of BRL400 million.

    一旦競爭格局開始轉變,情況就會好轉。但從大數字來看,美國的表現優於 20%,但今年迄今的出口額卻下降了 11%。我們在巴西的業務利潤率不到 10%,甚至處於虧損狀態。今年我們的進口商品增加了24%。因此,如果我們看到這種情況有所發展,我們將能夠實現 4 億雷亞爾的收益。

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Gabriel Barra, Citi.

    加布里埃爾·巴拉,花旗銀行。

  • Gabriel Barra - Analyst

    Gabriel Barra - Analyst

  • Okay, I think you can hear me now, right?

    好了,我想你現在可以聽到我說話了吧?

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yes, we can hear loud and clear.

    是的,我們聽得很清楚。

  • Gabriel Barra - Analyst

    Gabriel Barra - Analyst

  • I think my first point would be a follow-up on that investment in mining. During Gerdau Investor Day, I think Werneck talked about something and the market was quite curious when you referred to your desire to invest in mining, to have production surplus of iron ore and take advantage of the company's potential that sometimes is not very clear to most of us. So could you elaborate a bit more on that and talk about the mining rights because nobody -- not everybody is aware that you have these mining rights. So what do you have in mind about the investment?

    我認為我的第一點應該是跟進那筆採礦投資。在 Gerdau 投資者日期間,我認為 Werneck 談到了一些事情,當您提到您希望投資採礦業,獲得鐵礦石的剩餘產量,並利用公司有時對我們大多數人來說不太明顯的潛力時,市場對此非常好奇。所以您能否再詳細解釋一下,談談採礦權,因為並非所有人都知道您擁有這些採礦權。那麼,你對這項投資有什麼想法呢?

  • And I was speaking about Miguel Burnier. We believe that both Ouro Branco and Miguel Burnier will have a positive effect next year. Ouro Branco, there was a point in the next quarter. There was an initial cost because of that new operation. And Miguel Burnier, do you think we should expect something similar? Do you think that there will be any impact in the process to adjust the production given the fact that iron ore now has a higher grade? Would there be any impact? Just wanted to get that clear.

    我當時說的是米格爾·布爾尼爾。我們相信 Ouro Branco 和 Miguel Burnier 明年都會產生正面的影響。Ouro Branco,下一節比賽有一個點。由於這項新業務,初期需要一定的費用。米格爾·伯尼爾,你認為我們應該期待類似的事情發生嗎?您認為鑑於鐵礦石品位提高,調整生產流程是否會對生產造成任何影響?會有什麼影響嗎?我只是想把這一點說清楚。

  • And my second question -- and this is very much related to an issue raised during the Investor Day. And you talked about the multiple that the company is trading today. When we compare that to the multiples of other companies abroad, there is a gap. This gap has been with the company for some time. And in a way, it's something that we've been discussing with you for some time.

    我的第二個問題——這與投資者日上提出的一個問題密切相關。你剛才還談到了該公司目前的交易倍數。與國外其他公司的倍數相比,存在差距。公司存在這種差距已經有一段時間了。從某種意義上說,這是我們和你討論過一段時間的事情。

  • My question is, how can we mitigate or reduce the gap vis-a-vis other US companies? And the point to my question is, could we discuss like some listing, something similar to what JBS did more recently? Do you think it will be fair to discuss this today to maybe try to reduce the gap. I don't know. I don't know whether that makes sense to you or not. I would just like to hear your views about that. So these are my two points.

    我的問題是,我們如何縮小或緩解與其他美國公司之間的差距?我的問題是,我們能否討論一下類似 JBS 最近所做的那種上市方式?你認為今天討論這個問題,或許能縮小差距,這樣公平嗎?我不知道。我不知道你是否能理解。我想聽聽你對此的看法。這就是我的兩點看法。

  • Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

    Gustavo Cunha - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, you listed three points rather than two. So I will start with the numbers, and then we'll go from there. I think you asked about the Miguel Burnier system. That was a non-recurring event. There was a worsening of our Brazil operation this quarter, but there was an improve of BRL300,000 and 8% of our cost. So we showed that was not structural at Ouro Branco. It was a one-off situation and a nonrecurring event, mostly due to imports.

    你列出了三點而不是兩點。那我就先從數字開始,然後我們再從那裡開始。我想你問的是米格爾·伯尼爾系統。那是一件非經常性事件。本季我們在巴西的業務惡化,但成本改善了 30 萬雷亞爾,降幅達 8%。因此,我們證明了歐羅布蘭科並非結構性問題。這是一次性事件,並非經常發生,主要是由於進口造成的。

  • In my previous answer to Carlos, when I referred to ramp-up, it is possible to have cost fluctuations in the mills, not only due to the learning curve of the mining equipment. I mean the cost of processing ore is not going to be $30 per ton on day 1 of operation, and this is obvious. And maybe the operating cost will require a learning curve in terms of centering and the use of mining in our blast furnace.

    在我之前回覆 Carlos 的回答中,當我提到產能爬坡時,磨機的成本可能會出現波動,這不僅是因為採礦設備的學習曲線。我的意思是,礦石加工成本在運作第一天肯定不會是每噸 30 美元,這一點顯而易見。或許營運成本的降低需要一個學習過程,包括高爐的中心定位和採礦技術的應用。

  • But for that, to that end, we are doing a few things to mitigate these effects, probably having a higher inventory of pellets just to add up to the basket and then promote a gradual change. We are not going to produce 5.5 million tons on year 1 because there is a ramp-up curve. We will produce -- I mean, consume more pellet feed in the sintering operation.

    但為此,我們正在採取一些措施來減輕這些影響,例如增加顆粒庫存,以便添加到籃子中,從而促進逐步改變。我們不可能在第一年就生產出 550 萬噸,因為生產需要一個逐步提升的過程。我們將生產——我的意思是,在燒結作業中消耗更多的顆粒飼料。

  • There might be some effect throughout the year. For example, we will have to have some stoppages in our sintering system to make some connections when the investment starts operating. We will consume pellet feed in our sintering process using a process of cold clustering so that we could have pellet fit clusters in the centering operation. So there might be some stoppages that will probably affect cost, but it's nothing structural, and this can be changed from one quarter to the next in case this occurs.

    全年都可能受到一定影響。例如,當這項投資開始運作時,我們的燒結系統將不得不停工一段時間,以便進行一些連接工作。我們將採用冷聚結製程在燒結過程中消耗顆粒原料,以便在定心操作中獲得合適的顆粒團簇。因此,可能會出現一些停工,這可能會影響成本,但這並非結構性問題,如果發生這種情況,可以逐季度進行調整。

  • Now speaking about mining investments, as Gustavo said during the Investor Day, I think Rodolfo asked that question at the end of our Investor Day. When we invested in mining way back in 15 years ago, we acquired different areas in the state of Minas Gerais, some closer and some further away from the Ouro Branco mill at first. We focused on Varzea do Lopes where the material was closer to the ore that was being used without processing.

    現在談到礦業投資,正如 Gustavo 在投資者日上所說,我認為 Rodolfo 在我們的投資者日結束時也提出了這個問題。15 年前我們投資採礦業時,我們在米納斯吉拉斯州收購了不同的區域,有些區域離 Ouro Branco 選礦廠較近,有些則較遠。我們重點關注了瓦爾澤亞杜洛佩斯,那裡的材料更接近未經加工的礦石。

  • We had hematite and regulated products at our disposal, but we understood that this wouldn't be the case in the long run, and we needed a more robust investment in that mine that is close to our Ouro Branco mill because by doing so, we could perpetuate cost competition that will be very unique in Brazil's steel mining industry, but there are other minerals. And we already have those mining rights that we can explore.

    我們當時擁有赤鐵礦和受監管的產品,但我們明白從長遠來看情況並非如此,我們需要對靠近我們 Ouro Branco 鋼廠的礦山進行更強有力的投資,因為這樣做,我們可以持續保持成本競爭,這在巴西鋼鐵採礦業將是獨一無二的,但還有其他礦產。我們已經擁有可以勘探的採礦權。

  • I mean, not self-sufficient in terms of ore like Miguel Burnier, but these could be profit centers. We are not interested in competing with Vale because Vale is a huge mining company. But we do believe that there is some potential to find some interesting partnerships and maybe work with other mining companies in the industry or even with large mining companies in the region, just as a way to unlock value that something which is already in our balance sheet is a mining right, but it is not bringing any economic benefit.

    我的意思是,雖然不像米格爾·伯尼爾那樣能夠自給自足,但這些礦場可以成為利潤中心。我們無意與淡水河谷競爭,因為淡水河谷是一家規模龐大的礦業公司。但我們相信,或許可以找到一些有趣的合作關係,並可能與業內其他礦業公司,甚至與該地區的大型礦業公司合作,以此釋放我們資產負債表上已有的採礦權的價值,但它並沒有帶來任何經濟效益。

  • So that's why we decided to invest more in prospecting the land, doing some probes in the area just to have a more informed view for the future. But this is plan B. Our main focus is to deliver the Miguel Burnier and do the ramp-up of the investment of mining in Miguel Burnier and then maybe we could use our mining team to explore other frontiers.

    所以,這就是為什麼我們決定加大對這片土地的勘探投入,在該地區進行一些探測,以便對未來有更充分的了解。但這只是備選方案。我們的主要目標是交付米格爾·伯尼爾礦,並逐步增加對米格爾·伯尼爾礦的採礦投資,之後我們或許可以利用我們的採礦團隊探索其他領域。

  • And last but not least, about the multiple and your question about the probable or the like relisting. This is a question we often get both from the market and investors. I would say this is notable for us to talk about that or to discuss the reorganization of the capital structure of the company, of the ownership of the company.

    最後,關於多次交易以及您提出的關於可能重新上市的問題。這是我們經常從市場和投資者收到的問題。我認為值得我們討論的是公司資本結構重組和公司所有權重組的問題。

  • I mean, we look at what JBS did, but we do not have any concrete study underway, which would lead to an ownership restructuring of the company. Not only we are looking at what is being done by other companies in the market, and how the multiples of companies are performing, but we also have to consider structural changes like taxation on dividends, taxation on profits abroad. These are things that can have an impact on our appetite. So we may take longer to discuss possible changes. But it's not a taboo. It's not something that we never look at internally, but we will take a look at it when the time is right.

    我的意思是,我們會關注 JBS 的做法,但我們目前還沒有任何具體的調查研究正在進行,這可能會導致公司所有權的重組。我們不僅要關注市場上其他公司正在做的事情,以及公司的估值倍數表現如何,還要考慮結構性變化,例如股息稅、海外利潤稅等。這些因素都會影響我們的食慾。因此,我們可能需要更長時間來討論可能的變更。但這並非禁忌。雖然我們內部並非從未考慮過這個問題,但我們會選擇合適的時機來研究。

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Marcio Farid, Goldman Sachs.

    馬爾西奧·法里德,高盛集團。

  • Marcio Filho - Analyst

    Marcio Filho - Analyst

  • I'll try to be brief given the time limitation. A follow-up question regarding the US. Of course, potential renegotiation of tariffs with Canada and Mexico is important for you. I think you spoke a little about this, Gustavo. But the debate we have with investors is about how strong or how sticky the US movement can be. Assuming that we'll see US government negotiating with Canada and Mexico, what will be the reaction in the plus one for your operations considering import risks and your operations in Mexico and Canada?

    鑑於時間有限,我會盡量言簡意賅。關於美國的後續問題。當然,與加拿大和墨西哥重新談判關稅對你來說很重要。古斯塔沃,我想你之前也稍微談過這一點。但我們與投資人爭論的焦點在於美國經濟走勢的強度和持久性。假設美國政府將與加拿大和墨西哥進行談判,考慮到進口風險以及您在墨西哥和加拿大的業務,這對您的營運會產生怎樣的影響?

  • And very quickly, thinking more about the short term, fourth quarter and first quarter, well, these are seasonally weaker, but there is an important margin for the United States. In Brazil, we had a one-off effect, as you mentioned. So how should we see the short term with profitability improving, shipments decreasing? Should we expect some stable earnings for the next two quarters? Can we say that we reached a floor for Brazil and the United States with a more favorable moment?

    再快速地,多考慮短期,第四季和第一季度,雖然這些季度通常是季節性疲軟的,但對美國來說,仍有很大的成長空間。正如您所提到的,我們在巴西只產生了一次性的影響。那麼,在獲利能力提高、出貨量下降的情況下,我們該如何看待短期前景?我們是否可以預期未來兩季獲利將保持穩定?我們能否說,巴西和美國的關係已經觸底反彈,迎來了更有利的時機?

  • Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

    Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

  • I think that in terms of margins, I think that Gustavo kind of talked about this in his part. We expect a more challenging environment in Brazil in Q4 because of the seasonality. We'll have some maintenance shutdowns. Normally they take place in Q4. So unfortunately, I'm not sure we can say that we have reached a floor for the operation in Brazil. In addition, a part of our business, special steels having even a stronger seasonality in the last quarter of the year. So this should hurt our margins. And that's why Gustavo detailed it in that way when he spoke about our outlook for Q4 and for 2026.

    我認為就利潤率而言,古斯塔沃在他的部分中也談到了這一點。由於季節性因素,我們預計巴西第四季的市場環境將更具挑戰性。我們將進行一些維護性停機。通常情況下,這些活動會在第四季舉行。所以很遺憾,我不確定我們是否可以說我們在巴西的運作已經達到極限。此外,我們業務的一部分——特種鋼——在每年的最後一個季度具有更強的季節性。所以這應該會影響我們的利潤率。這就是為什麼古斯塔沃在談到我們對第四季和 2026 年的展望時,會詳細闡述這一點的原因。

  • In North America, we have seasonality that is very much weather related. But in terms of margins, we don't expect a significant shrinkage of the margins looking forward, given what we are seeing both in prices and in metal prices.

    在北美,季節性變化與天氣密切相關。但就利潤率而言,鑑於我們目前看到的價格和金屬價格走勢,我們預計未來利潤率不會大幅下降。

  • And regarding the question about the USMCA, in terms of immediate impact, we have seen Mexico adopting measures to protect themselves, not allowing imported goods coming in, so they won't have transshipment for the US. So we see that even if Mexico, Canada and the US have an agreement, the effects will not be the same as we had in the pre-Trump period. We would have an environment with more protectionism than we had originally or with more trade defenses better yet than we had originally.

    至於美墨加協定的問題,就其直接影響而言,我們已經看到墨西哥採取措施保護自己,不允許進口貨物進入,這樣他們就不會有貨物轉運到美國。因此我們看到,即使墨西哥、加拿大和美國達成協議,其效果也不會與川普執政前的情況相同。我們將面臨一個比最初更具保護主義的環境,或者更好的是,一個擁有比最初更多貿易保護措施的環境。

  • And to us, some kind of agreement between US and Canada would be very positive because we have a big volume. The way in which we are organized with mills close to the border of the United States and Canada, which were typically very integrated. Now we see some operational difficulties in our product mix because of the tariffs. If they were reduced or eliminated, that would optimize sales from our US mills to Canada and from Canada to the US, given the vocation of these mills.

    對我們來說,美國和加拿大之間達成某種協議將是非常積極的,因為我們的業務量很大。我們的組織方式是在美國和加拿大邊境附近的工廠開展業務,這些工廠通常高度整合。現在,由於關稅的影響,我們的產品組合在營運方面遇到了一些困難。如果減少或取消這些工廠,考慮到這些工廠的性質,這將優化我們美國工廠對加拿大和加拿大對美國的銷售。

  • For example, in Canada, heavy merchants are not produced. They're produced in the US. So structurally, Canada imports beams and merchants. So to us, this kind of change would be positive. Internally, in our discussions, we use what was negotiated between the United States and the UK as a good proxy, as the best agreement possible to be achieved regarding steel, considering that the US and England are perhaps the closest allies historically from the geopolitical and commercial standpoint.

    例如,在加拿大,不生產重型商用車。它們產自美國。因此,從結構上看,加拿大需要進口樑柱和商販。所以對我們來說,這種改變是正面的。在內部討論中,我們以美國和英國之間談判達成的協議作為很好的參考,因為考慮到從地緣政治和商業角度來看,美國和英國可能是歷史上最緊密的盟友,這已經是鋼鐵領域所能達成的最佳協議了。

  • So it seems to us that it's kind of difficult to affirm anything, but it seems to us to be unlikely that's the best word, that they will achieve a steel agreement that will be better than what England achieved with the United States, a tariff of 25%.

    所以,在我們看來,很難肯定任何事情,但我們認為,用「不太可能」這個詞來形容他們達成一項比英國與美國達成的25%關稅協議更好的鋼鐵協議的可能性不大。

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Lucas Laghi, XP.

    Lucas Laghi,XP。

  • Lucas Laghi - Analyst

    Lucas Laghi - Analyst

  • Well, actually, I have a follow-up question regarding capital allocation. I just want to understand a little better. I don't want to repeat the topic, but I just want to understand better this difference between the United States and Brazil in this process of defining new projects because when we look at EBITDA converted into cash, it becomes very clear that the United States are very different from Brazil today. But -- in a consolidated way, the company still has a comfortable balance sheet.

    其實,我還有一個關於資本配置的後續問題。我只是想更了解一些。我不想重複這個主題,但我只是想更好地了解美國和巴西在定義新項目過程中的這種差異,因為當我們查看 EBITDA 轉換為現金的情況時,就會非常清楚地看到,如今的美國與巴西截然不同。但從整體來看,該公司的資產負債表依然穩健。

  • So I just want to understand the approval of new projects, if return is accretive, if the projects have a positive effect, does it make sense to allocate regardless of the geography where they are as long as the balance sheet will allow it? Or if we use depreciation as a proxy of sustained CapEx, perhaps EBITDA less sustaining CapEx will not allow for the project, even if the consolidated balance sheet will allow it. Could this change your decision of capital allocation to some projects in a certain geography?

    所以我想了解一下,如果新專案的回報是增值的,如果這些專案有正面的影響,那麼只要資產負債表允許,無論專案位於何處,進行投資是否合理?或者,如果我們以折舊作為持續資本支出的代理指標,即使合併資產負債表允許,EBITDA 減去持續資本支出也可能不足以支持該項目。這是否會改變您對特定地區某些項目的資本配置決策?

  • You see the reason I'm asking is because we talk a lot about the United States, difference of multiples in companies abroad. I just want to understand if there is a segregation of capital allocation at the company when you analyze the deployment and the approval of new projects.

    我這麼問是因為我們常常談論美國,以及國外公司估值倍數的差異。我只是想了解,在分析新專案的部署和批准時,公司是否有資本配置方面的劃分。

  • Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

    Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

  • Lucas, this is a beautiful question. We have a lot of segregation to see. This is the pocket of investment for Brazil. This is the pocket of investments for North America and budget limitations for the country. We have a consolidated approach regarding our total portfolio. But yes, capital allocation considering the consolidated balance sheet. This is the maximum amount that I can invest. What are my priority investments for the coming years, considering my leverage, expected returns and my strategic priorities.

    盧卡斯,這是一個很好的問題。我們看到了很多種族隔離現象。這是巴西的投資熱點地區。這是北美投資的集中地,也是美國預算的限制。我們對整體投資組合採取了綜合管理策略。是的,資本配置需要考慮合併資產負債表。這是我能夠投資的最高金額。考慮到我的槓桿率、預期收益和策略重點,我未來幾年的優先投資是什麼?

  • In that context, we use discount rates. In terms of minimum desirable and necessary returns, which differ according to the different geographies. But overall, we have been prioritizing either in Brazil or the United States, Canada or Mexico, those investments that will drive cost competitiveness in detriment of investments that will prioritize growth or revenue because we understand that with our macroeconomic context, thinking about China globally, we have an oversupply of steel capacity in the world. So looking to be more competitive in cost is absolutely essential for our long-term existence.

    在這種情況下,我們會用到折現率。就最低理想收益和必要收益而言,不同地區的收益各不相同。但總的來說,我們一直優先考慮在巴西、美國、加拿大或墨西哥等地進行那些能夠提升成本競爭力的投資,而不是那些優先考慮成長或收入的投資,因為我們明白,就我們的宏觀經濟環境而言,考慮到全球範圍內的中國,世界上的鋼鐵產能已經過剩。因此,提高成本競爭力對我們的長期生存至關重要。

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Now we are heading towards the end of our call.

    現在我們的通話即將結束。

  • Rafael Barcellos, Bradesco BBI.

    拉斐爾·巴塞洛斯,布拉德斯科 BBI。

  • Rafael Barcellos - Analyst

    Rafael Barcellos - Analyst

  • From everything I've heard this morning, I would like to connect that to some of the conversations we had with investors. I think the main issue is how much the company can distribute recurrently cash returns to shareholders? It's very clear that the company favors buybacks. Now given the valuation level, and that's very clear -- it's very clear that buyback is your preference.

    根據我今天早上聽到的所有消息,我想把這些消息與我們和投資者進行的一些對話聯繫起來。我認為主要問題是公司能夠定期分配多少現金回報股東?很明顯,該公司傾向於股票回購。現在,鑑於目前的估值水平,這一點非常明確——很明顯,回購是你們的首選。

  • And the company is doing some excellent work to reduce CapEx, to improve balance sheet. And now we are about to see the company running at a lower CapEx. My question is, how do you see cash generation for the company going forward?

    該公司在降低資本支出、改善資產負債表方面做出了卓越的努力。現在我們即將看到公司以較低的資本支出運作。我的問題是,您如何看待公司未來的現金流?

  • The first topic is that what drew my attention was your cash generation this quarter and some specific issues, very low financial expense. And again, I know that there has been improvements to your balance sheet. But I just want to understand from this quarter, I mean, removing the seasonal effect, EBITDA and price. So what this quarter we could see something normalized or not? And the other thing I want to understand has to do with -- I mean, your gross debt guidance is BRL12 billion. You have like minimum cash.

    首先,最吸引我的是你們本季的現金流狀況以及一些具體問題,財務支出非常低。而且,我知道你們的資產負債表已經有所改善。但我只想了解本季的情況,我的意思是,剔除季節性因素,EBITDA 和價格。那麼本季我們能否看到情況恢復正常呢?還有一件事我想了解,那就是──我的意思是,你們的總債務預期是 120 億雷亞爾。你身上只有少量現金。

  • So how do you see these KPIs? I think this is something that can allow us to have a better understanding of how much the company can generate things in a recurrent way going forward. Again, just I was rejoining, and I don't know whether I heard everything about the last question, not only the story about Brazil and the US, but today, I see a clear difference in terms of where most of your cash generation is located, and it's clearly in the US. And if you look at minimum cash in Brazil and buyback considering that particular issue.

    那麼,您如何看待這些關鍵績效指標呢?我認為這可以幫助我們更好地了解公司未來能持續創造多少價值。我剛剛重新加入討論,我不知道我是否聽到了最後一個問題的全部內容,不僅是關於巴西和美國的故事,而且今天,我看到你們大部分現金流的來源地存在明顯差異,顯然是在美國。如果你考慮到巴西的最低現金要求和回購問題,那就更應該考慮這個問題了。

  • Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

    Rafael Japur - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Investor Relations Officer

  • Well, speaking about this particular quarter and what is different when compared to other quarters, if you look at our financial expenses, not in terms of cash flow. But when you look at the financial statement, there were two things that were not present. First of all, the exchange variation was lower in South America and in Argentina when compared to the previous half year.

    嗯,說到本季與其它季度相比有何不同,如果你看一下我們的財務支出,而不是現金流。但當你查看財務報表時,會發現有兩件事缺失了。首先,與上半年相比,南美洲和阿根廷的匯率波動幅度較小。

  • And the other aspect is that in the second quarter, we issued a bond, is a 2035 bond with buyback of other bonds. So there was an expense with the buyback of bonds and issuance of bonds, about BRL40 million to BRL50 million that was not repeated this quarter. I mean this is different. But since we do not issue bonds every quarter, so this should not occur in the fourth quarter as well.

    另一方面,在第二季度,我們發行了一張債券,這是一張 2035 年到期的債券,並附上購買其他債券的條款。因此,債券回購和債券發行產生了一筆費用,約 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬雷亞爾,而本季沒有再次發生這筆費用。我的意思是,這不一樣。但由於我們並非每季都會發行債券,因此第四季也不應該發生這種情況。

  • So I think this is the difference that you noticed in terms of our P&L, financial statement. But the third quarter seems to be more normal. I mean, if there is such a thing as normal nowadays, but more normal when compared to the second quarter.

    所以,我認為這就是您在我們損益表和財務報表方面注意到的區別。但第三季似乎更正常。我的意思是,如果現在還有「正常」這種說法的話,但與第二季相比,情況要正常得多。

  • And this is linked to your second question when you talked about capital structure. W announced the make-whole of our 2030 bond. There are several things that will be settle and that will lead to a reduction of our gross debt, close to BRL14 billion, which is closer to our financial policy level. We are not anticipating any structural changes to our financial policy because in our view, it is adequate. There might be just some fine-tuning here or there, but this is not a priority.

    這與你第二個關於資本結構的問題有關。W 宣布了我們 2030 年債券的全額補償計劃。有幾件事將會得到解決,這將使我們的總債務減少到接近 140 億雷亞爾,這更接近我們的財政政策水平。我們預計不會對財務政策進行任何結構性調整,因為我們認為目前的財務政策已經足夠完善。可能只需要做一些細微的調整,但這並不是當務之急。

  • And structurally speaking, we wouldn't want to leverage the company too much considering our current debt position. I think it's 0.81x net debt-to-EBITDA ratio. We used to be higher than that in the past. And even with a worse EBITDA in year-to-date, we got better leverage because of cash generation. And as we said in our last Investor Day that we expected to reduce CapEx investments in the coming years. If we think about maintenance of the other results in lines like EBITDA, working capital, et cetera, there was an increase in cash generation.

    從結構上講,考慮到我們目前的債務狀況,我們不希望過度利用公司的槓桿。我認為淨債務與 EBITDA 比率是 0.81 倍。我們過去曾比這高得多。即使今年迄今的 EBITDA 有所下降,但由於現金流的增加,我們獲得了更好的槓桿率。正如我們在上次投資者日上所說,我們預計未來幾年將減少資本支出投資。如果我們考慮 EBITDA、營運資本等其他指標的維持情況,就會發現現金產生量增加。

  • And as you said it quite well, we will return that to our shareholders through the share buyback. So usually, we -- our payout is between 30% to 40%, maybe there could be more room. But at the current level, we put our priorities in the buyback side. And once we have a stronger cash generation in the next coming quarters and years, we will continue with the buyback program.

    正如您所說,我們將透過股票回購的方式將收益返還給股東。所以通常情況下,我們的收益分成比例在 30% 到 40% 之間,或許還有提升空間。但就目前而言,我們將工作重心放在回購方面。一旦我們在未來幾季和幾年內現金流更加充裕,我們將繼續實施股票回購計畫。

  • The program is approved until the end of the year. We still have 12% of the program to be concluded. So eventually, I believe that it makes sense, your provocation and the expectation that we might engage in other buyback programs in the future.

    該項目已獲批准,有效期至年底。該項目還有12%尚未完成。所以最終,我認為你的挑釁以及我們未來可能會參與其他回購計劃的預期是有道理的。

  • Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

    Mariana Dutra - Head, Investor Relations

  • Well, thank you very much. Our Q&A session is now concluded. And now I would like to invite you to join us on February 24 for the earnings presentation of the fourth quarter. Thank you so much, and I will see you next quarter.

    非常感謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。現在,我誠摯地邀請各位參加2月24日舉行的第四季業績發表會。非常感謝,我們下個季度再見。

  • Editor

    Editor

  • Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the company sponsoring this event.

    本記錄稿中的英文陳述是由現場通話中的口譯員翻譯的。本次活動的翻譯人員由活動贊助公司提供。