使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us at Gerdau's Third Quarter Earnings Release. I'm Mariana Dutra, Head of IR. Here, we have with us our CEO, Gustavo Werneck; and Rafael Japur, Gerdau's CFO.
大家早安,感謝您參加 Gerdau 第三季財報發布。我是 IR 主管 Mariana Dutra。我們的執行長 Gustavo Werneck 也在這裡;以及蓋爾道 (Gerdau) 財務長拉斐爾賈普爾 (Rafael Japur)。
This webcast has simultaneous translation into English, and you can choose the language of your choice by clicking in the globe icon in the bottom part of your screen. (Event Instructions)
這個網路廣播有英語同聲翻譯,您可以透過點擊螢幕底部的地球圖示來選擇所需的語言。(活動須知)
The forward-look statements are beliefs from the company based on information currently available. Forward-looking statements that do not -- are not guarantee of performance and depend on circumstances that may and may not occur.
前瞻性陳述是公司基於目前可用資訊的信念。前瞻性陳述不保證業績,並且取決於可能發生或不發生的情況。
Now I would like to turn the floor over to Gustavo to begin the presentation. Gustavo, you may proceed.
現在我想請古斯塔沃開始演講。古斯塔沃,你可以繼續了。
Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Board of Executive Officers, Director
Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Board of Executive Officers, Director
Thank you, Marie. Good morning, everyone, and I hope you are well, and thank you very much for joining us for another earnings release call. We will briefly comment on the highlights of the quarter. And also, we will talk about the outlook for our operations. But this time, we will allow more time for the Q&A session.
謝謝你,瑪麗。大家早安,希望你們一切都好,非常感謝你們參加我們的另一次財報電話會議。我們將簡要評論本季的亮點。此外,我們還將討論我們的營運前景。但這次,我們將留出更多時間進行問答環節。
First of all, I would like to point out that we ended the third quarter of 2024 with an injury and accident frequency rate of 1.58. It's the best track record in the last 123 years. I reinforce our commitment to people's health and safety. And as you know, this has always been our priority. We ended the third quarter with an adjusted EBITDA of BRL3 billion, mainly reflecting the progress of our cost reduction initiatives and the optimization of our assets in Brazil.
首先,我想指出的是,截至 2024 年第三季度,我們的傷害和事故頻率為 1.58。這是過去 123 年來的最佳記錄。我重申我們對人民健康和安全的承諾。如你所知,這一直是我們的首要任務。第三季末,我們的調整後 EBITDA 為 30 億雷亞爾,主要反映了我們降低成本措施和優化巴西資產的進展。
Even against the backdrop of an oversupply of steel on the world market and uncertainties in the global macroeconomic environment, Gerdau's shipments grew both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, underscoring the successful execution of our commercial and operating strategy. Speaking about Brazil, in particular, we recorded an increase in steel demand in the domestic market in the third quarter. Despite the improved domestic demand, our shipments remain impacted due to the excessive steel imports into the country, even with the mixed trade defense system called a quota tariff or a tariff rate.
即使在全球市場鋼鐵供應過剩、全球宏觀經濟環境存在不確定性的背景下,Gerdau 的出貨量仍實現環比和同比增長,凸顯了我們商業和營運策略的成功執行。特別是巴西,第三季國內市場鋼鐵需求成長。儘管國內需求有所改善,但由於國內鋼鐵進口過多,即使採用了稱為配額關稅或關稅稅率的混合貿易防禦體系,我們的出貨量仍然受到影響。
This has not bring about the expected results, and it should be constantly improved by the federal government. The monthly average of steel imports in the first 9 months of 2024 was almost 80% higher than the historical average. We have seen with astonishment a large volume of imported steel entering through cities like Manaus, showing how steel is being rerouted to other regions of Brazil in order to avoid payment of the required import taxes.
這並沒有帶來預期的效果,聯邦政府應該不斷改進。2024年前9個月的月平均鋼材進口量比歷史平均高出近80%。我們驚訝地看到大量進口鋼材通過馬瑙斯等城市進入,這表明鋼材如何被改道至巴西其他地區,以避免繳納所需的進口稅。
I will now turn the floor over to Japur for the financial highlights.
現在我將請賈普爾介紹財務要點。
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
Thank you, Gustavo. Hello, everyone. It's always a great pleasure to be here with you in our earnings conference call. This quarter, we posted net income of BRL1.432 billion or BRL0.64 per share, a significant increase of more than 50% compared to the second quarter of 2024. In the same period, we had free cash flow totaling BRL3 billion.
謝謝你,古斯塔沃。大家好。很高興與您一起參加我們的收益電話會議。本季度,我們公佈淨利潤為 14.32 億雷亞爾,即每股 0.64 雷亞爾,較 2024 年第二季度大幅增長 50% 以上。同期,我們的自由現金流總計為 30 億雷亞爾。
Almost BRL1.8 billion was due to the withdrawal of the judicial deposit for the lawsuit over the exclusion of ICMS tax from the PIS and COFINS calculation base.
近 18 億雷亞爾是由於因將 ICMS 稅排除在 PIS 和 COFINS 計算基礎之外而提起的訴訟中提取的司法保證金。
Excluding this event, free cash flow generation was approximately BRL1.2 billion, driven by a higher level of EBITDA, as Gustavo has mentioned, and a significant release of working capital in the period. That significant cash generation enabled us to end the quarter with a leverage of 0.32x net debt over EBITDA, the lowest level in the last 12 months. Our strong financial performance was recognized by the main rating agencies, which raised the company's rating, reflecting the strength of our balance sheet.
排除這一事件,自由現金流量約為 12 億雷亞爾,這是由古斯塔沃提到的更高水平的 EBITDA 以及期內營運資金的大量釋放推動的。大量的現金產生使我們在本季末的淨債務槓桿達到 EBITDA 的 0.32 倍,這是過去 12 個月以來的最低水準。我們強勁的財務表現得到了主要評級機構的認可,從而提高了公司的評級,反映了我們資產負債表的實力。
Regarding return to our shareholders, including dividends payout and share buyback year-to-date in 2024, we have a payout on net income of 55%, significantly above the mandatory minimum set out in our bylaws. By the end of October, we had executed around 57% of the buyback program, investing 700 -- more than BRL700 million, approximately 2% of the market cap of the company. We also announced the cancellation of approximately 77% of the shares that were repurchased by Gerdau S.A.
關於股東回報,包括 2024 年年初至今的股利支付和股票回購,我們的淨利支付率為 55%,遠高於我們章程規定的強制性最低要求。截至 10 月底,我們已執行了約 57% 的回購計劃,投資了 700 多雷亞爾(7 億多雷亞爾),約占公司市值的 2%。我們也宣布註銷 Gerdau S.A. 回購的約 77% 的股份。
Moving on to the next slide. I'd like to look at the evolution of our cost reduction initiatives. As we mentioned at the beginning of the call, they were very important to foster our results this quarter. On the left of the slide, we can see that in Brazil, we captured in this quarter BRL210 million in savings. Still, we believe that there are more opportunities, initiatives to be pursued until the end of 2024.
轉到下一張投影片。我想了解我們降低成本計畫的演變。正如我們在電話會議開始時所提到的,它們對於促進我們本季的業績非常重要。在幻燈片左側,我們可以看到在巴西,本季我們節省了 2.1 億雷亞爾。儘管如此,我們相信,到 2024 年底,將有更多的機會和措施可以實施。
In the other business divisions, we carried out most of the initiatives that were planned and some of the benefits in our view are already being fully captured and benefiting our results with the efficiency gains during 2024 makes us confident that we will achieve our guidance of starting the year of 2025 with BRL1.5 billion in savings versus the 2023 base.
在其他業務部門中,我們實施了計劃中的大部分舉措,我們認為一些好處已經得到充分體現,並且透過 2024 年效率的提高使我們的業績受益,這使我們有信心實現我們的指導方針:到2025 年,與2023 年相比,可節省15 億雷亞爾。
I now turn the floor back to Gustavo, and I'll join you during the Q&A session.
我現在把發言權轉回古斯塔沃,我將在問答環節與您一起參與。
Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Board of Executive Officers, Director
Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Board of Executive Officers, Director
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Japur. I would like to emphasize that Gerdau is very well positioned to deliver solid results in the coming quarters and that we remain focused on cost discipline and capital allocation. In all the markets in which we operate, there will be the natural impact of the year-end seasonality.
好的。謝謝。謝謝你,賈普爾。我想強調的是,Gerdau 完全有能力在未來幾季取得紮實的業績,並且我們仍然專注於成本控制和資本配置。在我們經營的所有市場中,都會受到年終季節性的自然影響。
Here in Brazil, we remain very attentive to the unfolding of trade defense measures on steel imports. And we have a positive outlook for steel demand especially coming from the construction industry, whose GDP for 2024 is expected to grow by 4.8% driven by continued improvement in the real estate segment. For North America, we know that our steel shipments and prices will be temporarily impacted by the slowdown in economic activity, influenced by the presidential elections and the steel imports in the United States. A scenario that should be reversed during the first half of 2025.
在巴西,我們仍然非常關注鋼鐵進口貿易防禦措施的進展。我們對鋼鐵需求尤其是建築業的鋼鐵需求前景持樂觀態度,在房地產行業持續改善的推動下,預計 2024 年建築業的 GDP 將增長 4.8%。對於北美,我們知道我們的鋼鐵出貨量和價格將暫時受到經濟活動放緩的影響,受總統選舉和美國鋼鐵進口的影響。這種情況應該會在 2025 年上半年扭轉。
With that, we thank you all for your attention, and we look forward to answering all your questions.
在此,我們感謝大家的關注,並期待回答你們的所有問題。
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Thank you Gustavo and Japur, now we will initiate the Q&A session. (Event Instructions)
謝謝 Gustavo 和 Japur,現在我們將開始問答環節。(活動須知)
Daniel Sasson, Itau BBA.
丹尼爾‧薩森 (Daniel Sasson),伊塔烏 BBA。
Daniel Sasson - Analyst
Daniel Sasson - Analyst
Congratulations for your excellent results, especially in the Brazil BD due to all of your efforts to optimate to optimize your assets and you got more reasonable margins. I see the results are much better than before so congrats on that delivery. My first question has to do with the U.S., the North America BD. Gustavo, you were just referring to a potential impact in terms of shipments and prices in the U.S. in a shorter period of time.
恭喜您取得了優異的成績,特別是在巴西 BD,由於您為優化資產所做的所有努力,您獲得了更合理的利潤。我看到結果比以前好得多,所以祝賀這次交付。我的第一個問題與美國、北美BD有關。古斯塔沃,您剛才提到了短期內對美國出貨量和價格的潛在影響。
One of your competitors just announced a drop in prices early in this fourth quarter. So could you give me a little bit more color of how much of that comes from lower demand. And I think that led you to change the mix and to change your amount of rebars in your mix.
您的一位競爭對手剛在第四季初宣布降價。那麼您能否給我更多的資訊來說明其中有多少來自需求下降。我認為這導致您改變了混合物並改變了混合物中鋼筋的數量。
So how much of that competition with imported goods in the U.S. could probably help you. I don't know whether you anticipate any kind of protection is measured now with the recent election of Trump to the presidency of the country. And my second question, maybe to Japur is whether you could tell us a little bit about capital allocation. You had a very strong cash generation even if you exclude the reversal of taxes.
那麼,美國與進口商品的競爭可能對您有多大幫助。我不知道您是否預計隨著川普最近當選美國總統,現在會採取任何形式的保護措施。我的第二個問題也許是問賈普爾,你能否告訴我們一些有關資本配置的資訊。即使不考慮稅收逆轉,您也擁有非常強勁的現金產生能力。
So maybe you could tell us a little bit about what's in your mind in regards to an optimal capital structure. Almost 60% of your buyback program was already concluded since it was initiated or if you think that may be with Trump's election, you would have a different mindset in terms of your investments in Mexico or you are still thinking about growing more specifically in the U.S. or maybe Brazil. Maybe you will decide to change the focus. I would just like to understand how this very strong cash position dialogues with investments or probably shareholder return.
也許您可以告訴我們一些您對最佳資本結構的想法。自啟動以來,您的回購計劃已完成近60%,或者如果您認為川普當選後可能會結束,那麼您對墨西哥的投資會有不同的心態,或者您仍在考慮在美國進行更具體的成長。也許你會決定改變焦點。我只是想了解這種非常強勁的現金狀況如何與投資或股東回報進行對話。
Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Board of Executive Officers, Director
Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Board of Executive Officers, Director
Well, Japur, let's split the answer. I will answer the first 2 questions, the first 2 topics. Well, first of all, Daniel, you talked about cost reductions. I would just like to say that this cost reduction and the search for greater efficiency that had a positive impact in our results for the quarter. They stem from a plan that I think I've been talking to you about in past quarters.
好吧,Japur,讓我們分開回答。我將回答前兩個問題,前兩個主題。好吧,首先,丹尼爾,你談到了降低成本。我只想說,這種成本降低和對更高效率的追求對我們本季的業績產生了積極影響。它們源自於一個計劃,我想我在過去幾個季度一直在與你們談論這個計劃。
So once we talk about these initiatives, all of them are based on very detailed plans. We don't want to talk about wishes or desires that are not backed by very detailed plans. So what happened is that we were very good at executing according to plan. And so this is what contributed substantially to our results in Brazil. Execution has been very efficient of the plan that we have talked to you in previous quarters.
因此,一旦我們談論這些舉措,它們都是基於非常詳細的計劃。我們不想談論沒有非常詳細的計劃支持的願望或願望。所以我們非常擅長按計劃執行。因此,這對我們在巴西的業績做出了重大貢獻。我們在前幾個季度與您討論的計劃的執行非常有效。
North America BD, in general, the results of the election will be quite positive for us. No matter where you look, especially if you look at the main -- the main point, certainly, Daniel, the results of the election will be more positive for us in North America.
北美BD,總的來說,選舉結果對我們來說是相當正面的。無論你從哪裡看,特別是如果你看主要的——當然,丹尼爾,選舉的結果對我們北美來說將會更加積極。
But what happened now prior to the election is that there was a lot of expectation in terms of what would be the final outcome when the polls would say that there would be a more fierce competition between the 2 candidates, clients and all of the business that work with us, were sort of apprehensive. And this affected demand in the previous months. And then that's why we made a decision not to reduce the use of our assets, especially the rolling mill. In order to maintain that, we place a larger amount of rebars in our production mix. This is a flexibility we have in the remaining mills after the sale of our main rebar assets to NMC.
但現在在選舉之前發生的事情是,當民調顯示兩位候選人、客戶和所有企業之間將會有更激烈的競爭時,人們對最終結果抱有很大的期望。有點擔心。這影響了前幾個月的需求。這就是為什麼我們決定不減少資產的使用,特別是軋機。為了保持這一點,我們在生產組合中加入了更多的鋼筋。這是我們將主要螺紋鋼資產出售給 NMC 後剩餘鋼廠所擁有的靈活性。
So we are making better use of our assets. And we think that even if the mix has a lower average profitability due to cost reductions it's still keeping a very high optimization of the assets. It's still very good for our business. But now we will analyze it in deeper details. What would be the speed of that rebound especially in terms of steel to our clients, we have to still wait and see what will happen in terms of a stronger rebound. We initially thought that this recovery will be slightly slower.
因此,我們正在更好地利用我們的資產。我們認為,即使由於成本降低,該組合的平均盈利能力較低,但它仍然保持著非常高的資產優化。這對我們的生意來說還是非常有利的。但現在我們將對其進行更深入的詳細分析。對於我們的客戶來說,特別是在鋼鐵方面,反彈的速度是多少,我們仍然必須等待,看看更強勁的反彈會發生什麼。我們最初認為這種復甦會稍微慢一點。
Maybe this will change now because the results of the election were just announced. But all of the fundamentals of that steel segment with all of the federal incentive packages, they are in force, and they will be translated into important results. The issue is not whether we will -- there will be a recovery or not because it will take some time until we have a better idea of how fast this will occur. We were closely monitoring the elections. And I think that Japur has more to say about the outcome of the election.
也許現在這種情況會改變,因為選舉結果剛剛公佈。但鋼鐵業的所有基本要素以及所有聯邦激勵計劃都已生效,並將轉化為重要成果。問題不在於我們是否會復甦,因為我們需要一些時間才能更好地了解復甦的速度。我們正在密切關注選舉。我認為賈普爾對於選舉結果有更多話要說。
So Japur can now answer the part about capital allocation.
那麼Japur現在可以回答關於資本配置的部分了。
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
Daniel, now, shedding some light to what Gustavo just said, when you -- we think about the results of the quarter, and we compare it with the data from the U.S. economy, we noticed that since June of this year, PMI is negative. It's below 50%. So this is an indication that demand, especially industrial demand, which is an important market for our merchant production in the U.S.
丹尼爾,現在,解釋一下古斯塔沃剛才所說的,當我們考慮本季的結果,並將其與美國經濟的數據進行比較時,我們注意到自今年 6 月以來,PMI 為負值。低於50%。因此,這表明需求,特別是工業需求,是我們在美國商業生產的重要市場。
was a bit slower, even before that the election process that was finalized today. And this is what impacted the prices of merchants in early October, and this -- the prices will be lower. This is what we will see in the coming quarters in terms of prices at the end and merchant prices represent a significant amount of the mix of products that we sell to the U.S. market.
甚至在今天最終確定的選舉進程之前,速度就有點慢了。這就是影響10月初商家價格的因素,而且價格會更低。這就是我們在未來幾季中將看到的最終價格,而商家價格代表了我們向美國市場銷售的產品組合的很大一部分。
So taking into account these effects, we are projecting lower revenues in the coming months. Also, but when we look at imports, there has been an increase in merchant imports going into the U.S., and there's also impacted prices. Now speaking about the midterm, after this election period, we understand that after he appoints the main positions of (inaudible) administration. We believe that in the second half of next year, we will have a better outlook. And I'm sure the steel market will be more dynamic.
因此,考慮到這些影響,我們預計未來幾個月的收入將會下降。此外,當我們觀察進口時,進入美國的商業進口增加,而且價格也受到了影響。現在談到中期選舉,在這個選舉期之後,我們了解到,在他任命(聽不清楚)行政部門的主要職位之後。我們相信,明年下半年,我們會有更好的前景。我相信鋼鐵市場將會更加活躍。
And so this is our initial reading in regards to the outcome of the U.S. election.
這是我們對美國大選結果的初步解讀。
Now capital allocation, yes, I was going to go to that. Now when we think in terms of capital allocation, we are moving forward with our buyback program. We had already the opinion on the exclusion of ICMS from the PIS and COFINS space. So there were buyback executions. And I know that you monitor our reports on a monthly basis.
現在資本配置,是的,我要去那個。現在,當我們考慮資本配置時,我們正在推動回購計畫。我們已經就將 ICMS 排除在 PIS 和 COFINS 空間之外提出了意見。所以有回購執行。我知道您每月都會監控我們的報告。
So we started the buyback in September. Therefore, in 2 months of buyback between September and October, we invested in terms of shareholders' return, almost half of all the CapEx for the quarter. That means a significant amount. And this like year-to-date, in terms of dividends, we are -- we have more than 25% of payout of our net income. And we understand that as much as our shares are discounted vis-a-vis its peers and in terms of its intrinsic value, once our cash position remains robust, we can go on with our buyback program.
所以我們在九月開始了回購。因此,在9月至10月的兩個月回購中,我們投資於股東回報,幾乎佔該季度全部資本支出的一半。這意味著數額很大。就像今年迄今為止,就股息而言,我們的股息佔淨收入的 25% 以上。我們知道,儘管我們的股票相對於同業以及其內在價值而言存在折扣,但一旦我們的現金狀況保持強勁,我們就可以繼續我們的回購計劃。
And also, we can continue investing in CapEx, not only to generate short-term value which is the buyback but also in the long run with the projects that will pave the way towards our future. Our net debt for the long term has not changed. There is no significant change, but we just have to meet our short-term obligations and things related to interest rates and exchange rate and then that makes us just think about the best way to keep our balance sheet in terms of capital allocation in moments of higher volatility like this year.
此外,我們可以繼續投資資本支出,不僅是為了產生短期價值(即回購),而且從長遠來看,還可以透過專案為我們的未來鋪平道路。我們的長期淨債務沒有變化。沒有重大變化,但我們只需要履行我們的短期義務以及與利率和匯率相關的事情,然後這讓我們思考在資本配置方面保持資產負債表的最佳方式像今年這樣的波動性更大。
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
(inaudible), BTG Pactual.
(聽不清楚),BTG Pactual。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
(inaudible) leverage dividend and share buyback, Japur have received some questions about this earlier today. I think that the quality of the results is undeniable. There was improvement in the Brazil BD. Nothing to discuss that. You pulled out in the operational and some doubts regarding the pace of the buyback.
(聽不清楚)槓桿股息和股票回購,Japur 今天早些時候收到了一些有關此問題的問題。我認為結果的品質是不可否認的。巴西 BD 有所改善。沒什麼好討論的。您對回購速度提出了操作和一些疑慮。
The deleveraging was very fast in the quarter, numbers converging to 0.3 net debt over EBITDA ratio. That was a nonrecurring event, of course, and this was this release of cash that you had. You mentioned that you started a strong buyback in September. So Japur, should we expect the space accelerating in the next few months particularly considering an operational scenario, which is a lot more balanced in the high cash position. So I'd like to get some color about the speed of the buyback program.
本季去槓桿化速度非常快,淨負債與 EBITDA 比率達到 0.3。當然,這是一個非重複事件,而這就是您所擁有的現金釋放。您提到您在九月開始了強勁的回購。因此,Japur,我們是否應該預期未來幾個月的空間會加速成長,特別是考慮到營運場景,在高現金狀況下,營運場景會更加平衡。所以我想了解一下回購計畫的速度。
A lot of people that we talked about earlier today. Well, they were a bit worried about a level that was below expected in the pace of the program. So that's the first point. Second point, well, still in Brazil, the Brazil BD, a notable improvement, EBITDA margin increasing from 1% to 7%, 8%. Some low levels, some quarters they go to very strong levels now.
我們今天早些時候討論過很多人。嗯,他們有點擔心該計劃的進度低於預期。這是第一點。第二點,嗯,還是在巴西,巴西BD,有顯著的改善,EBITDA利潤率從1%提高到7%、8%。一些低水平,一些季度它們現在達到非常強的水平。
EBITDA margin about 17% in the Brazil BD. Of course, that's the result of all the in-house work you did. I'd like to confirm how much of the BRL1 billion in Brazil is already delivered. You could break down the percentage that we can analyze the evolution and where could the margin be in the next quarters? I don't know if you can share that, but we would like to understand what is the new level given a more normalized cost base.
巴西 BD 的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 17%。當然,這是您所做的所有內部工作的結果。我想確認巴西10億雷亞爾的資金中有多少已經交付。您可以細分我們可以分析演變的百分比以及未來幾季的利潤率在哪裡?我不知道您是否可以分享這一點,但我們想了解考慮到更加標準化的成本基礎,新的水平是什麼。
These are my two questions.
這是我的兩個問題。
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
As regards share buyback and payout of dividends to shareholders, I'd like to remind you that we have a relevant distribution, considering dividends and share buyback, more than BRL2 billion year-to-date until the nine months of the year, we still have more to do until year-end. We have other obligations that we'll compete tactfully in our day-to-day operational regarding the amounts. There's presumable some small acquisitions and capital investments such as the acquisition of the scrap in North America, we have the closing last week. This is an investment of BRL600 million, give or take, about BRL350 million -- BRL340 million, $50 million, and this will consume cash.
關於股票回購和向股東支付股息,我想提醒您,考慮到股息和股票回購,我們有相關的分配,年初至今超過20億雷亞爾,直到今年的九個月,我們仍然到年底還有更多事情要做。我們還有其他義務,我們將在日常運營中巧妙地履行有關金額的義務。大概有一些小型收購和資本投資,例如在北美收購廢品,我們上週就已經完成了交易。這是一項6億雷亞爾的投資,無論多少,大約是3.5億雷亞爾——3.4億雷亞爾,5000萬美元,這將消耗現金。
So we continue tactfully with other obligations, and we have to take all that into account in our execution. But yes, we do have the goal of continuing and completing our share buyback program. once complete. Our goal is to cancel these shares that we repurchased. We haven't canceled them fully because part of the sales will be used for our long-term incentive program.
因此,我們繼續巧妙地履行其他義務,我們必須在執行時考慮到所有這些。但是,是的,我們確實有繼續並完成我們的股票回購計劃的目標。一旦完成。我們的目標是取消我們回購的這些股票。我們還沒有完全取消它們,因為部分銷售額將用於我們的長期激勵計劃。
Once we complete the program, if the price levels remain substantially discounted with an enterprise value multiple below 4x as we have seen Gerdau trading in recent months. Of course, there's no reason why we would not reassess. No thinking specifically about Brazil. I'd like to ask for the help of my team to play the slide on cost reduction on the screen, please. So we try to maintain the same visual identity to facilitate you following the initiatives.
一旦我們完成該計劃,如果價格水平仍然大幅折扣,企業價值倍數低於 4 倍,正如我們在最近幾個月看到 Gerdau 的交易那樣。當然,我們沒有理由不重新評估。沒有特別考慮巴西。我想請求我的團隊幫忙在螢幕上播放有關降低成本的幻燈片。因此,我們嘗試保持相同的視覺識別,以方便您遵循這些舉措。
In the past quarter, we mentioned that BRL150 million have been captured in terms of cost reductions. In this third quarter, we advanced more. We captured another BRL210 million and these are reductions of costs and expenses in our results. We estimated about BRL400 million in Q2 so more than 50% of what we mentioned to capture in the second half of the year has already been captured in the third quarter. So we understand that this is a good pace to capture these BRL415 million, [of probably] steel in 2024.
在上個季度,我們提到在成本削減方面已經實現了 1.5 億雷亞爾。在第三季度,我們取得了更多進展。我們又獲得了 2.1 億雷亞爾的收入,這些是我們業績中成本和開支的減少。我們估計第二季度約為 4 億雷亞爾,因此我們提到的下半年捕獲量的 50% 以上已在第三季度捕獲。因此,我們知道,這是在 2024 年捕獲這 4.15 億雷亞爾(可能是)鋼鐵的良好步伐。
And of course, since we start doing this in the beginning of the year, but of course, they build up along the year. The cost base will only be fully captured when we annualize the savings and the gains that we're capturing today. In Q3, captured gains will be realized at the 50% or 25% because we only have one quarter to go. But when I run the whole 2025, with this lower cost base, that is when we're going to fully capture this reduction of having a base of costs and expenses, BRL1 billion lower in 2025 compared to the base in the end of 2023. Basically, this is where we stand in terms of capturing all of these benefits.
當然,因為我們在年初就開始這樣做,但當然,它們會隨著一年的推移而累積。只有當我們將今天所獲得的節省和收益年度化時,成本基礎才能充分體現。在第三季度,我們將實現 50% 或 25% 的收益,因為我們只剩下四分之一的時間了。但當我展望整個 2025 年時,在這個較低的成本基礎上,我們將充分實現成本和費用基礎的減少,與 2023 年底的基礎相比,2025 年將減少 10 億雷亞爾。基本上,這就是我們在獲取所有這些好處方面的立場。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
We don't think, though, that we are going to have significant margin expansion in the coming quarters in the Brazil operation because traditionally, that's a period of higher seasonality. We have the holiday season coming up. And of course, this will impact our results, just like annual maintenance downtime that we have both in Brazil and in North America. And just to add to this detailed explanation by Japur, we will continue to pursue efficiency gains and cost reductions. The market continues to be very fierce.
不過,我們認為未來幾季巴西業務的利潤率不會大幅成長,因為傳統上,這是一個季節性較高的時期。我們的假期即將到來。當然,這會影響我們的業績,就像我們在巴西和北美的年度維護停機時間一樣。作為 Japur 詳細解釋的補充,我們將繼續追求效率提升和成本降低。市場仍然非常激烈。
There's this theme about steel imports, which is not resolved. Trade defense measures that have not been as effective as we expected. At the same time, the other opportunities can arise next year. So we are in this journey of reducing the (inaudible) capacity, which is secured for exports.
有一個關於鋼鐵進口的主題,但尚未解決。貿易保護措施並沒有像我們預期的那樣有效。同時,明年可能還會出現其他機會。因此,我們正處於減少(聽不清楚)產能的過程中,這些產能是為出口而保證的。
But on this journey, things will take time. And perhaps opportunities will arise next year, perhaps to grow a bit the volumes, the exports to shipments. We have the new phase of the hot rolling mills with adding many more tonnes. So other factors that may contribute next year delivers more positive margins. But still, I'd like to say that in terms of profitability and revenue, there are some challenges to be overcome regarding imports, okay?
但在這段旅程中,一切都需要時間。也許明年會出現機會,也許會增加出口量和出貨量。我們新一期的熱軋機增加了更多噸數。因此,明年可能帶來更多積極利潤的其他因素。但我還是想說,在獲利能力和收入方面,進口還有一些挑戰需要克服,好嗎?
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Marcio Farid, Goldman Sachs.
馬西奧·法里德,高盛。
Marcio Farid - Analyst
Marcio Farid - Analyst
I have two questions about the two primary markets of Gerdau. First, in the U.S., a very specific question and that we have been debating a lot among the investors which is related to the spread of structural beams and merchant bars compared to rebar. Historically, this was very low, maximum $50 and now it's at $200, $300 premium and so what we are wondering is whether the spreads -- if the spreads are structural beams that go back to the price in the past.
我有兩個關於蓋爾道兩個主要市場的問題。首先,在美國,這是一個非常具體的問題,我們一直在投資者中爭論很多,這與結構樑和商業棒材相對於螺紋鋼的價差有關。從歷史上看,這是非常低的,最高 50 美元,現在是 200 美元、300 美元溢價,所以我們想知道利差是否——如果利差是回到過去價格的結構梁。
This will have a significant pressure on margin. The question is, will the press go back? And if not, will that change structurally to leave the spread higher longer? And also regarding Brazil, I think you spoke a little and (inaudible) a lot about the levels of -- very high levels of imports from China. In China, achieving new exporting records last month.
這將對利潤率造成巨大壓力。問題是,媒體會回去嗎?如果不是,結構性變化是否會導致利差走高的時間更長?關於巴西,我認為您談了一點(聽不清楚)很多關於從中國進口的水平非常高。在中國,上個月創下新的出口紀錄。
We saw some attempts in the last 12 months of trying to kind of stop some of these imports. But I'd like to understand -- where are we in this topic?
在過去 12 個月中,我們看到了一些試圖阻止其中一些進口的嘗試。但我想了解一下——我們現在這個話題處於什麼階段?
You were more vocal in the beginning of the year, Werneck regarding the need to bar these imports we saw some tariffs coming to the market that sincerely, we cannot understand how they're helping the market. And it seems to be temporary. It seems that there are antidumping discussions also happening so give us an update of where we stand. What kind of push has been given by the industry in this exchange rate scenario, could we think about a more controlled scenario in terms of profitability and price.
韋內克,您在今年年初更加直言不諱地談到了禁止這些進口的必要性,我們看到市場上出現了一些關稅,真誠的是,我們無法理解它們如何幫助市場。而且這似乎是暫時的。似乎還存在反傾銷討論,因此請向我們通報我們的最新情況。在這種匯率場景下,產業給予了什麼樣的推動,我們是否可以考慮在獲利能力和價格方面更可控的場景。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Thank you, Marcio. I'll start with China. And Japur, you will remember to speak about the exchange rate environment that Marcio mentioned, and you speak about the spreads, too, okay. But I'll start Marcio with China. (inaudible) saying that any debate about (inaudible) by the central Chinese government to their economy, et cetera, et cetera.
謝謝你,馬西奧。我將從中國開始。Japur,你會記得談論馬西奧提到的匯率環境,你也談論利差,好嗎。但我將從馬西奧開始談中國。 (聽不清楚)說任何關於(聽不清楚)中國中央政府對其經濟等問題的辯論。
None of that will reduce the level of exports. It is an illusion to think that stimuli civil construction will increase domestic demand for steel in China. This is not going to happen. Whatever they had to build in terms of infrastructure, residential and office buildings, all of that have been built. They will incentivize the Chinese population using what has already been built.
所有這些都不會降低出口水準。認為刺激土木工程建設將增加中國國內鋼鐵需求是一種幻想。這不會發生。無論他們要建造什麼基礎設施、住宅和辦公大樓,都已經建成了。他們將激勵中國人使用已經建成的東西。
So we have no illusion that this level of exports from China in the next 10, 15 years, what we reduced.
所以我們不抱幻想,中國的出口水準在未來10年、15年我們會減少多少。
We are not only ourselves. We are not considering this as a possibility. In fact, China will continue to export. Their surplus capacity is brutal. The 4 million tons that Brazil consumes in rebar in China has a capacity of 400 million tonnes, 100x more these volumes will continue and we'll continue penetrating the market in an unloyal way.
我們不僅僅是我們自己。我們不認為這是一種可能性。事實上,中國將繼續出口。他們的產能過剩是殘酷的。巴西在中國消耗的 400 萬噸螺紋鋼的產能為 4 億噸,這些數量將持續增加 100 倍,我們將繼續以不忠誠的方式滲透市場。
So this is a reality that we'll need to face. And this has to do with the effectiveness of the trade defense measures and mechanisms that have been adopted to date. It took 12 to 18 months for the government to adopt the first trade defense measure this mixed tariff rate quota system. There was a public speech by both parties, both the federal government and the steel industry that after 4 months, a check would be conducted with analyze effectiveness of the mechanisms. And in the last 4 months, it was shown that the mechanism was not effective so far.
所以這是我們需要面對的現實。這與迄今為止採取的貿易保護措施和機制的有效性有關。政府花了12至18個月才採取第一項貿易防禦措施──混合關稅配額制度。聯邦政府和鋼鐵業雙方均發表公開講話,表示將在4個月後進行檢查,分析機制的有效性。而在過去的4個月裡,事實證明該機製到目前為止還沒有發揮作用。
This mechanism needs to be urgently adjusted. And I would say more deeply so that it can be effective in reducing the unloyal arrival of steel in Brazil. So this is a moment of debate with the federal government. In our point of view, this mechanism should suppress this 30% extra volume that arrived. This should end.
這機制亟待調整。我想更深入地說,這樣可以有效減少鋼鐵不誠實地到達巴西。因此,這是與聯邦政府辯論的時刻。我們認為,這種機制應該會抑制這 30% 的額外交易量。這應該結束了。
You should consider just the average imports that we always had in Brazil, more specifically this time window that was considered from 2020 to 2022 and suppress this 30%.
您應該只考慮巴西一直以來的平均進口量,更具體地說,考慮的是 2020 年至 2022 年的這個時間窗口,並抑制這 30%。
We believe that 25% is not sufficient, they need to increase the tariff rate. We believe that these 11 plus the 4 NCMs, it's too little. It should include the whole array of steel products that are competing in an unloyal way. We have been more formal with the federal government, so that they can understand in depth and to tell them about this increased input of steel via Manaus. Manaus has tax benefit are importing still for local processing.
我們認為25%還不夠,他們需要提高關稅稅率。我們認為這11個加上4個NCM,太少了。它應該包括以不忠誠的方式競爭的所有鋼鐵產品。我們與聯邦政府的聯繫更加正式,以便他們能夠深入了解並告訴他們透過馬瑙斯增加鋼鐵投入的情況。馬瑙斯仍享有稅收優惠,進口仍可進行本地加工。
And we were really scared by this growing imports of steel via Manaus in the 4 months of the trade defense measures and that was frightening. We ask the federal government to understand this talk about this. I understand if this is abiding by the law. So that's the moment right now.
在貿易保護措施實施的 4 個月裡,我們真的對透過馬瑙斯進口的鋼材不斷增加感到害怕,這太可怕了。我們請求聯邦政府理解這次談話。我理解這是否符合法律。這就是現在。
Have to debate this more intensely, understanding that the entire dumping processes are not fast enough to bring us the defense that we need. This will take 18 to 24 months to take effect, and we need more urgent measures. The most difficult part, which was to adopt a trade defense measures, this was done, but it needs to be fine-tuned so that we can handle more significant reduction in this volume of exports from China. So that we can continue to have our production capacity in Brazil available to meet the domestic market demand, Japur, you want to add to that and then speak about the exchange rate and spreads?
必須對此進行更激烈的辯論,並了解整個傾銷過程的速度不夠快,無法為我們帶來所需的辯護。這需要18到24個月才能生效,我們需要更緊急的措施。最困難的部分是採取貿易防禦措施,這已經完成了,但需要微調,以便我們能夠應對中國出口量更大幅度的減少。這樣我們就可以繼續擁有巴西的產能來滿足國內市場的需求,Japur,您想補充一下,然後談談匯率和利差嗎?
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
Talking about the exchange rate, overall, 20% to 25% of Gerdau costs in Brazil are in dollars and about 10% to 15% of our revenue is [in dollars] but most of our local prices depend on the exchange rate given (inaudible) rate. So to us, higher dollar price. When you think about the average price of dollar. Last quarter, we had a dollar that is now 5% to 6% above the average dollar price in Q3. So it's 5% to 6% more competitiveness of the Brazilian product vis-a-vis imported ones.
談到匯率,總的來說,巴西Gerdau 成本的20% 到25% 是美元,我們收入的大約10% 到15% 是[美元],但我們大部分當地價格取決於給定的匯率(聽不見清) ) 速度。所以對我們來說,美元價格更高。當你考慮美元的平均價格。上個季度,我們的美元價格比第三季度的平均美元價格高出 5% 到 6%。因此,巴西產品的競爭力比進口產品高出 5% 至 6%。
So that's an important driver for volumes shipments and exports in our domestic competitiveness. I'll go back to your first question about the difference in spreads, also that objectively, a number of factors can be taken into account. But it is important to remember the dynamic of supply and demand for the different products. if we trace a time line of the main investments in steel capacity expansion in the U.S., essentially, it was for flat. So minority prolongs.
因此,這是我們國內競爭力的出貨量和出口量的重要驅動力。我將回到你關於點差差異的第一個問題,而且客觀地,可以考慮許多因素。但重要的是要記住不同產品的供需動態。如果我們追蹤美國鋼鐵產能擴張的主要投資的時間線,基本上是持平的。所以少數人會延長。
But of what is being done for long steel expansion. Basically, what we have is [tonnes] and rebar capacity being produced in the United States. We have very little or practically no investment no greenfield investment in merchant bars and structurals. So this is one of the factors explaining this in terms of supply and demand and why we have a difference rebar is a more competitive and merchant bars and structurals with more differentiation right now, which translates into a higher price power in terms of the producers of structurals and merchant bars.
但關於長期鋼鐵擴張正在採取哪些措施。基本上,我們擁有的是美國生產的[噸]和螺紋鋼產能。我們對商業酒吧和結構的投資很少或幾乎沒有,沒有綠地投資。因此,這是從供需角度解釋這種情況的因素之一,也是為什麼我們有差異的原因。為生產商具有更高的價格能力。
The second factor, which is more long term, is that we felt significant pressure from inflation on labor in the United States from 2020 onward to date after the COVID pandemic, higher added value, industrialized products like structural and merchant bars which increased productivity and the speed of execution of nonresidential construction projects, they end up getting a premium and even higher value vis-a-vis rebar which requires more manual work, more people working in the construction site. I think these 2 factors help us explain why -- is it that we're having a differentiation in price of rebar in structurals and merchant bar higher than in the past, which reinforces how assertive was our strategy to focus on these 2 products in our road map and in our portfolio of assets in the North America BD.
第二個因素是更長期的因素,自2020 年以來,我們感受到了美國勞動力的巨大壓力,從2020 年起,新冠疫情之後,附加價值更高的工業化產品(如結構性和商業金條)提高了生產率,由於非住宅建築項目的執行速度加快,與螺紋鋼相比,它們最終獲得了溢價甚至更高的價值,因為螺紋鋼需要更多的手工工作,需要更多的人在建築工地工作。我認為這兩個因素可以幫助我們解釋原因——結構螺紋鋼和商業螺紋鋼的價格差異是否比過去更高,這強化了我們在我們的業務中專注於這兩種產品的策略的自信程度。路線圖以及我們在北美BD 的資產組合。
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Rafael Barcellos, Bradesco BBI.
拉斐爾·巴塞洛斯,布拉德斯科 BBI。
Rafael Barcellos - Analyst
Rafael Barcellos - Analyst
I have two questions. Well, the first question is on the U.S. market. And I would like to hear more about your short-term view. I would just like to understand how do you see this results trajectory, especially looking at the fourth quarter and whether it would make sense for us to believe that the fourth quarter should be worse in terms of margins.
我有兩個問題。嗯,第一個問題是關於美國市場的。我想更多地了解您的短期觀點。我只是想了解您如何看待這一結果軌跡,尤其是第四季度,以及我們認為第四季度的利潤率應該更差是否有意義。
And that maybe throughout the year 2025, margins will become more stable or even they could improve. And maybe to put this question into a context, in the last few weeks, we've heard some news about a $30 increase on rebar prices in the U.S. and I would just like you to comment on that piece of news and eventually, what would be the unfolding of that? And what will be the impact for merchants? Now on the Brazilian market, participants complaining about the increased entry of Egyptian rebars.
也許到 2025 年,利潤率將變得更加穩定,甚至可能有所改善。也許要把這個問題放在一個背景下,在過去的幾周里,我們聽到了一些關於美國螺紋鋼價格上漲 30 美元的消息,我希望您對這條消息發表評論,最終,會發生什麼?那件事的展開嗎?對於商家來說又會產生什麼影響呢?現在在巴西市場上,參與者抱怨埃及螺紋鋼的進入增加。
Could you talk a little bit about the domestic market? I know Werneck, you already talked about that. But I would just like to understand whether things are worsening or this is just a seasonal fact that happens in the fourth quarter. I would just like to get a better feeling about the market or whether this would have an impact on prices and still talking about Brazil. I would like to hear more about profitability.
能簡單談談國內市場嗎?我知道韋內克,你已經談過這一點了。但我只是想了解情況是否正在惡化,或者這只是第四季度發生的季節性事實。我只是想更好地了解市場,或者這是否會對價格產生影響,但仍然談論巴西。我想了解更多有關盈利能力的資訊。
I know that you've been doing some excellent work in terms of cost reduction and optimization. But you also said that next year, we believe that there are other opportunities to improve profitability. But are there other initiatives in your road map in addition to the ones that you have already announced or it will be something more related to the market itself?
我知道你們在降低成本和優化方面做了一些出色的工作。但您也表示,明年我們相信還有其他機會來提高獲利能力。但是,除了您已經宣布的計劃之外,您的路線圖中是否還有其他計劃,或者是否會與市場本身更相關?
Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Board of Executive Officers, Director
Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Board of Executive Officers, Director
Okay. Japur, now you start talking about the U.S. and then I will do the follow-up on Brazil.
好的。Japur,現在你開始談論美國,然後我將跟進巴西。
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
Well, short term, usually in the fourth quarter, there is seasonality, especially because in the U.S., there is an issue of climate and the holidays like Thanksgiving, Christmas, and the New Year. And usually, there is a reduction between 5% to 10% in the fourth quarter vis-a-vis the other quarters of the year. So naturally, there is a lower operating leverage. And this year, there was -- there is an important maintenance shutdown in our mid-low mill. Not only we have the maintenance shutdown, but also investments that we are doing in our productivity for the long run.
嗯,短期來說,通常是在第四季度,有季節性,特別是因為在美國,有氣候問題以及感恩節、聖誕節和新年等假期。通常,第四季度與一年中其他季度相比會減少 5% 至 10%。因此,營運槓桿自然會較低。今年,我們的中低階工廠進行了一次重要的停工維護。我們不僅要進行停機維護,還要對生產力進行長期投資。
And this should also impact our profitability in the North American BD in the fourth quarter.
這也應該會影響我們第四季北美BD的獲利能力。
In addition to that, we have the reduction in merchant prices that occurred early this quarter in early October. And in our view, this will have an impact on (inaudible). I mean in North America consolidated figures because merchant has a larger weight in our portfolio. We don't think that it will be a full impact of that $120 but we think that, that's an important part of that $120 because that corresponds to discounts that have already been in place. So with that price reduction, they will not be in place anymore.
除此之外,我們也發現本季初(10 月初)商家價格有所下降。我們認為,這將會影響(聽不清楚)。我的意思是在北美合併數據,因為商人在我們的投資組合中佔有更大的比重。我們認為這不會完全影響 120 美元,但我們認為這是 120 美元的重要組成部分,因為這對應於已經到位的折扣。因此,隨著降價,它們將不再存在。
So the net reduction will be lower than that.
因此淨減少量將低於這個數字。
So we estimate that in the consolidated would be between $25 to $35 depending on the mix. But naturally, we anticipate a pressure -- a competition pressure given all of these factors. But we remain very optimistic looking to 2025 and the possible unfoldings from the Trump's new administration and a possible rebound of the U.S. economy. We were saying that PMI since July has been in negative territory, but we believe that this should reverse once we go over the end of year seasonality period.
因此,我們估計綜合成本將在 25 至 35 美元之間,具體取決於組合。但自然地,我們預期會有壓力——考慮到所有這些因素的競爭壓力。但我們對 2025 年以及川普新政府可能出現的情況以及美國經濟可能出現的反彈仍然非常樂觀。我們說過,自 7 月以來 PMI 一直處於負值區域,但我們認為,一旦進入年底季節性期,這種情況應該會逆轉。
Now in terms of one-off price moves, we understand that price moves for rebars in North America are more related to short-term moves of scrap prices. So there was a change in metallic spread vis-a-vis what we had in October. So basically, this is just a tactical adjustment in terms of rebar spreads in the North America region. And Rafael now speaking about Brazil you mentioned something very correct, and that is about the Egyptian rebar.
現在就一次性價格走勢而言,我們了解到北美螺紋鋼的價格走勢與廢鋼價格的短期走勢更為相關。因此,與 10 月相比,金屬價差發生了變化。所以基本上,這只是北美地區螺紋鋼價差的戰術調整。拉斐爾現在談到巴西時,您提到了一些非常正確的事情,那就是埃及螺紋鋼。
I wasn't so vocal about that as much as I was about Manaus. Brazil has a bilateral agreement with Egypt. It is just understandable that there should be an increase in rebars coming from Egypt. I mean China is exporting looking for other markets. Therefore, it's just natural.
我對此並不像對馬瑙斯那樣直言不諱。巴西與埃及簽訂了雙邊協議。來自埃及的螺紋鋼數量應該有所增加,這是可以理解的。我的意思是中國正在出口尋找其他市場。因此,這是很自然的。
There are other countries like Egypt and Vietnam, they are exporting a little bit more into to the U.S. and Mexico. They may look for other markets. Eventually, we would see rebars coming through Santa Catarina because of ICMS exemptions. We don't think there will be a continuous flow of rebar inflows, but it will continue to come.
還有其他國家,如埃及和越南,他們向美國和墨西哥出口更多。他們可能會尋找其他市場。最終,由於 ICMS 豁免,我們將看到螺紋鋼通過聖卡塔琳娜州運來。我們認為螺紋鋼不會持續流入,但它會繼續出現。
Unlike Manaus, nobody saw that coming. Therefore, we're already factoring that in. We are already considering that entry. But it won't be substantial enough to complicate the industry of our concrete in Brazil.
與馬瑙斯不同,沒有人預見到這一點。因此,我們已經考慮到了這一點。我們已經在考慮該條目。但它的規模還不足以使巴西的混凝土產業複雜化。
So -- of reinforced concrete in Brazil. Now we are seeing rebar and other products related to reinforce countries. For next year, we understand that in general, next year will be better for the market in general in relation to what is happening this year in 2024. And not only because of market factors that you mentioned. We already have initiatives -- other initiatives to reduce costs even further.
所以——巴西的鋼筋混凝土。現在我們看到了螺紋鋼和其他與鋼筋國家相關的產品。對於明年,我們了解到,總體而言,與 2024 年發生的情況相比,明年對整個市場來說會更好。不僅僅是因為你提到的市場因素。我們已經採取了一些措施——進一步降低成本的其他措施。
We are not going to shut down any of our assets with (inaudible) state of Sierra, our production capacity is in tune with the market reality. So we will not see major initiatives like that. And you also talked about the plan. It's part of our plan for next year to go on and seeking for opportunities with raw materials like ore, light energy and other things. We will pursue initiatives that can give us additional profitability.
我們不會因為 Sierra 的(聽不清楚)狀態而關閉任何資產,我們的生產能力符合市場現實。因此,我們不會看到類似的重大舉措。你也談到了這個計劃。這是我們明年計畫的一部分,我們將繼續尋找礦石、光能等原料的機會。我們將採取能夠為我們帶來額外獲利能力的措施。
And this will come just from market -- the market scenario. I mean, the demand will continue to be very sound. Therefore, our general view in Brazil, even with the entry of Egyptian rebar in all of the other points that we already mentioned, I think we will be able to increase our profitability in Brazil in 2025 when compared to the average of 2024.
這將僅來自市場——市場情景。我的意思是,需求將繼續非常強勁。因此,我們對巴西的總體看法是,即使埃及螺紋鋼進入了我們已經提到的所有其他方面,我認為與 2024 年的平均水平相比,我們將能夠在 2025 年提高我們在巴西的盈利能力。
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Caio Ribeiro, Bank of America.
卡約·裡貝羅,美國銀行。
Caio Ribeiro - Analyst
Caio Ribeiro - Analyst
I would like now to talk about special steels in South America. It's very clear that in North America, there was a great -- I mean, North America will benefit from the results of the elections. I mean, infrastructure, reshoring, et cetera. Could you now comment about this dynamic with special steels. We've seen a very healthy demand in Brazil mainly due to the production of heavy vehicles.
我現在想談談南美洲的特殊鋼。很明顯,在北美,我的意思是,北美將從選舉結果中受益。我的意思是,基礎設施、回流等等。現在您可以評論一下特殊鋼的這種動態嗎?我們看到巴西的需求非常健康,主要是由於重型車輛的生產。
But maybe we -- you could give me some color about what you expect -- looking at the demand in the U.S. based on the results of the elections. In South America, the margin in the past quarters has been flat around 16% that considering higher levels of over 20%. So could you give me some color about what is the expected level? Or what kind of level you believe to be sustainable?
但也許我們——你可以給我一些關於你的期望的顏色——根據選舉結果來看看美國的需求。在南美洲,考慮到超過 20% 的較高水平,過去幾季的利潤率一直持平在 16% 左右。那麼您能否告訴我一些關於預期水平的信息?或者您認為什麼樣的水平是可持續的?
And whether you have some cost initiatives that could be adopted for that division that could probably stir up more changes in this area.
以及您是否有一些可以為該部門採用的成本計劃,這可能會引發該領域的更多變化。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Okay, Caio, I think I can answer both of your questions. Starting with special steels and more specifically referring to North America. I think that in the U.S., unlike Brazil, where an important part of our production is earmarked for heavy vehicles, in the North American market, our production is earmarked to light vehicles. And this sector is very much dependent on affordability. I mean people -- can people afford to pay for their vehicles.
好的,Caio,我想我可以回答你的兩個問題。從特殊鋼開始,更具體地說是指北美。我認為,在美國,與巴西不同,我們的生產的重要部分專門用於重型車輛,而在北美市場,我們的生產專門用於輕型車輛。這個行業在很大程度上取決於負擔能力。我指的是人們——人們有能力支付他們的車輛費用嗎?
And this is related to a reduction in interest rates. And this is something recent that we're beginning to see in the U.S. Therefore, we understand that 2025, considering how Trump's administration that will try to boost local production with near-shoring and on-shoring. In our view, there should be an increase in demand in the short term as interest rates start coming down, especially for end users of vehicles.
而這與利率的降低有關。這是我們最近在美國開始看到的事情。我們認為,隨著利率開始下降,短期內需求應該會增加,特別是對於車輛的最終用戶。
And also, this will bring more incentives to increase local production of vehicles in North America. Now looking at South America. I would just like to add something about the U.S. This is my thesis. I think that the hardening of the trade agreement between Mexico, Canada and the U.S.
此外,這也將帶來更多動力來增加北美當地的汽車產量。現在看南美洲。我想補充一些關於美國的內容,這是我的論文。我認為墨西哥、加拿大和美國之間貿易協定的強化
will also hold on the -- we'll also probably try to restrict the entry of auto parts because today, especially for replacement parts, they are coming through Mexico, but from Asia. So with the tightening of this trade agreement and there is a review to that agreement coming in 2026.
我們也可能會嘗試限制汽車零件的入境,因為今天,特別是替換零件,它們是通過墨西哥,但來自亞洲。因此,隨著該貿易協議的收緊,並將於 2026 年對該協議進行審查。
So in my view, the entry of auto parts will be lower. And this -- on the other hand, will lead us to increase demand in the U.S. for our auto parts. I mean this is my thesis, and I think this will come to benefit our business with the recent outcome of the election.
所以我認為,汽車零件的進入會更低。另一方面,這將導致我們增加美國對汽車零件的需求。我的意思是這是我的論文,我認為這將使我們的業務隨著最近的選舉結果而受益。
Okay. Speaking about South America, I think it's important to remember that in this first quarter of 2023, we divested from the joint ventures we had in Colombia in the Dominican Republic because they came as -- I mean equity equivalents, our EBITDA was stronger in South America because there was a very relevant part of EBITDA that came from that shareholders' equity. So we started the year without that comparison, without that revenue impacting our results. The result was without the cash and cash equivalents. So we understand that the margins should vary between 15% to 25% in the long run.
好的。說到南美洲,我認為重要的是要記住,在2023 年第一季度,我們從哥倫比亞和多明尼加共和國的合資企業中撤資,因為它們是——我的意思是股權等價物,我們的EBITDA 在南美洲更強美國,因為 EBITDA 中有一個非常相關的部分來自股東權益。因此,我們在今年開始時沒有進行這種比較,也沒有那種收入影響我們的業績。結果就是沒有現金和現金等價物。因此我們知道,從長遠來看,利潤率應該在 15% 到 25% 之間變化。
The equity -- because of equity income, especially because of our unit in Argentina. So the market has been more difficult in view of everything that we are seeing in the Argentinian economy because they are reducing expenses and they are adjusting the economy to this new inflation level and major actions to adjust the economy. But in the short run, this means that there is a reduction in our shipments in Argentina, and that varies between 40% to 50% in terms of tons or shipments vis-a-vis what we delivered last year. And it's very difficult for you to keep excellence and good cost once you have lower shipments. But we understand that's in the midrange, this process should go back to normal, and we will try to mitigate these measures through efficiency gains.
股權-因為股權收入,特別是因為我們在阿根廷的部門。因此,鑑於我們在阿根廷經濟中看到的一切,市場變得更加困難,因為他們正在減少開支,正在調整經濟以適應新的通膨水平,並採取重大調整經濟的行動。但從短期來看,這意味著我們在阿根廷的出貨量會減少,與去年相比,以噸數或出貨量計算,減少了 40% 至 50%。一旦出貨量下降,您就很難保持卓越和良好的成本。但我們知道這是在中間範圍,這個過程應該會恢復正常,我們將嘗試透過提高效率來減輕這些措施。
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Ricardo Monegaglia, Safra.
里卡多·莫內加利亞,薩夫拉。
Ricardo Monegaglia - Analyst
Ricardo Monegaglia - Analyst
I have two value objective questions. One about the cash flow, which was a positive surprise even excluding the withdrawal of that deposit. So I'd like to (inaudible) 2 things. working capital? How can we think about the performance of this line item in the next quarter, the next few quarters considering that there was a reduction in the cash conversion cycle in this quarter.
我有兩個價值客觀問題。一個是關於現金流,即使不包括提取存款,這也是一個積極的驚喜。所以我想做(聽不清楚)兩件事。營運資金?考慮到本季現金轉換週期有所縮短,我們如何看待該訂單項目在下個季度、接下來的幾個季度的表現。
And then about the level of tax, which was way lower than expected in this quarter. So I just wanted to get a sense of what happened. Was there a different seasonality of payment in this quarter, anything specific? And how should we think about the reversal of the specific factor if any? So we can have an idea of how the free cash flow, why not all evolve in the next quarters?
然後是稅收水平,本季的稅收水平遠低於預期。所以我只是想了解一下發生了什麼事。本季的付款季節性是否有所不同,有什麼具體情況嗎?如果具體因素出現逆轉,我們該如何看待?因此,我們可以了解自由現金流是如何流動的,為什麼不在接下來的季度中全部發展?
Second question. Going back to the United States (inaudible) impression. But the message in the call of the second quarter was that July was also a good month in terms of profitability in the U.S. operation. So could you give us any color regarding the magnitude of margin deterioration along the quarter.
第二個問題。回到美國(聽不清楚)的印象。但第二季電話會議傳達的訊息是,就美國業務的獲利能力而言,7 月也是一個不錯的月份。那麼您能否告訴我們有關本季利潤率惡化程度的任何資訊。
So we can understand whether we'll start to Q4, the better level than we were expecting. We can have an idea of the evolution of the margin.
所以我們可以了解我們是否會從第四季開始,比我們預期的水平更好。我們可以了解邊際的演變。
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
Rafael Japur - Investor Relations Director
Regarding free cash flow, we expect to have a release of working capital in Q4, given the typical seasonality of the year. Lower volumes lead to a reduction in working capital. And we understand that from the standpoint of operating cash flow, this will be good for our cash generation in Q4. On the other hand, in Q4, typically, it is a period that given maintenance stoppages, that's when we have the highest disbursement of CapEx. I'd like to remind you that we have a guidance of about BRL6 million in CapEx this year and we had done about BRL300 million to date in CapEx, that's what's been released.
關於自由現金流,考慮到今年的典型季節性,我們預計第四季將釋放營運資金。銷量下降導致營運資金減少。我們知道,從經營現金流的角度來看,這將有利於我們第四季的現金產生。另一方面,在第四季度,通常是維護中斷的時期,也是我們資本支出支出最高的時期。我想提醒您,我們今年的資本支出指引約為 600 萬雷亞爾,迄今為止我們已完成了約 3 億雷亞爾的資本支出,這就是已發布的數據。
So there might be more CapEx disbursement expected for Q4 this year. When we think specifically about taxes paid, there is one specific detail. Since we operate in different countries in terms of result, we analyzed result quarter-by-quarter, but the effective payments of income tax in particular, take place in different moments in different countries.
因此,預計今年第四季的資本支出可能會更多。當我們具體考慮所繳納的稅款時,有一個具體細節。由於我們在不同國家開展業務,所以我們按季度分析結果,但特別是所得稅的有效繳納,在不同國家發生在不同時刻。
And also the tax at companies, they get back for those payments happen at different moments. So we will make the payment of our bonds for income tax is always difficult though to know exactly when payments or institutions will take place because every country has different moments for that.
還有公司的稅收,他們在不同的時刻收回這些付款。因此,我們將使得我們的債券的所得稅支付總是很困難,儘管要確切地知道何時支付或機構將發生,因為每個國家都有不同的時刻。
Normally, in the second half in April, we have a greater payment of taxes in North America and another high payment in the end of the year. And in the rest of the year, we don't have such great payments in North America regarding payment of taxes.
通常情況下,4月下半月,我們在北美繳稅較多,年底又繳稅較高。在今年剩下的時間裡,我們在北美沒有那麼多關於繳稅的款項。
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Next question is from (inaudible).
下一個問題來自(聽不清楚)。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
I have some follow-up questions, one on North America and one on the Brazil operation. But Japur, regarding North America, perhaps you could give us a better idea of the impact that we saw of this adjustment of the value of inventories. And also thinking about the cost structure in North America for the fourth quarter. If you can be very clear the effects expected in terms of volume and price for Q4. But Is there anything we should pay attention regarding costs.
我有一些後續問題,一個關於北美,一個關於巴西業務。但是賈普爾,關於北美,也許你可以讓我們更了解我們看到的庫存價值調整的影響。還要考慮第四季北美的成本結構。如果您能非常清楚第四季銷售和價格的預期影響。但是關於費用有什麼需要注意的嗎?
There was an additional cost in Q3 related to downtime and also devaluation of inventories. We want to try to understand that better. But is there anything for Q4 that we are not considering, that we are not mapping that we should keep in mind in terms of the cost structure for Q4. So that's the U.S.
第三季存在與停機和庫存貶值相關的額外成本。我們想嘗試更好地理解這一點。但是,在第四季的成本結構方面,是否有我們沒有考慮的、我們沒有繪製的、我們應該牢記的事情。這就是美國
And looking at Brazil, the scenario seems more positive when we look at the demand for [longs] less impacted by the imported volume, although it was this acceleration of rebar from Peru and Egypt. But I'd like to understand how you see the capacity of the industry. We have seen some increases amongst and is this something that you see as a risk for 2025? Or is this gradual with less impact. But this increased industry capacity is something we would like to hear you talk a little about so we can understand 2025.
就巴西而言,當我們考慮受進口量影響較小的[長材]需求時,情況似乎更為樂觀,儘管來自秘魯和埃及的螺紋鋼數量有所增加。但我想了解您如何看待這個行業的能力。我們看到了一些成長,您認為這是 2025 年的風險嗎?或者說這是漸進的,影響較小。但我們希望聽到您談論一下行業產能的增加,以便我們能夠了解 2025 年的情況。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Japur will speak about inventories. But let me see if I understood your word that we are not going to have capacity to meet the demand of the industry. We want to understand the cost impact in terms of the reassessment of the value of inventories that we had in Q3, the impact on the margin to understand how to forecast looking forward. But in the second question about Brazil, the impact of capacity increase from your competitors, not from Gerdau. Okay, understood.
賈普爾將談論庫存。但讓我看看我是否理解你的話,即我們將沒有能力滿足產業的需求。我們希望了解重新評估第三季庫存價值的成本影響,以及對利潤率的影響,以了解如何預測未來。但在關於巴西的第二個問題中,產能增加的影響來自競爭對手,而不是蓋爾道。好的,明白了。
Typically, in some specific products, when prices drop faster than cost, we have to attest every quarter in terms of the net value realization comparing the price I have in my product and the price I have in my inventory. It was not a representative impact to explain the lower margin of the (inaudible). This is how we do the accounting of our inventories in the value of our products. It should not affect materially the result in Q4. What, however, can impact our costs and our operating leverage structure in the coming quarter is the typical seasonality we have in the period, as I mentioned before, 5% to 10% less volumes typically in Q4 when we look at the historical series and when we compare the shipments and volumes delivered.
通常,在某些特定產品中,當價格下降速度快於成本時,我們必須每季就淨值實現進行證明,比較我的產品價格和我的庫存價格。這不是解釋利潤率較低的代表性影響(聽不清楚)。這就是我們根據產品價值來核算庫存的方式。它不會對第四季度的結果產生重大影響。然而,可能影響我們下一季的成本和營運槓桿結構的是我們在此期間的典型季節性,正如我之前提到的,當我們查看歷史系列時,第四季度的銷售通常會減少5% 到10%,並且當我們比較發貨量和交貨量時。
Typically, that's the level of oscillation that we see. In addition, we have some maintenance downtime in particular, significant stoppage at (inaudible) and a part of these expenses with downtime will have an effect on our results and will put a little pressure on our competitiveness.
通常,這就是我們看到的振盪水平。此外,我們還有一些維護停機時間,特別是(聽不清楚)的重大停機,其中一部分停機費用會對我們的業績產生影響,並對我們的競爭力造成一些壓力。
At the same time, we realized that from the standpoint of raw materials in recent months, the cost of scrap was lower than we had in the first half of this year, and we understand that along Q4 part of this benefit of a cheaper scrap, which is already in our inventory should also translate into a variable cost of metal that will be lower in Q4 compared to what we had in Q2 and Q3.
同時,我們意識到,從近幾個月原料的角度來看,廢鋼成本低於今年上半年,而且我們了解到,第四季度廢鋼價格便宜的部分好處是,我們庫存中已經存在的金屬成本也應該轉化為金屬的變動成本,與第二季和第三季相比,第四季的金屬成本將更低。
Lucas, talking about Brazil. Your concern about coil demand for 2025 is not a concern for us. In terms of new capacity for us. We have 250,000 tonnes of cold hot-rolled strips or hard rolled coils starting in January. And we're very safe that this additional volume will be delivered to our captive customers, our direct customers through direct delivery of the mill of via Gerdau commercial department.
盧卡斯,談論巴西。您對 2025 年卷材需求的擔憂與我們無關。就我們的新產能而言。從 1 月開始,我們有 25 萬噸冷熱軋帶材或硬軋捲材。我們非常確信,這些額外的產量將透過via Gerdau 商業部門直接交付給我們的專屬客戶、我們的直接客戶。
So we have no concerns about that. And we believe that the capacity for loans will be balanced. There are some marginal capacities being added.
所以我們對此並不擔心。我們相信貸款能力將會平衡。正在增加一些邊際產能。
But we have heard that players are postponing some projects of theirs. So we have to think about the imported product. If that continues to grow, that can impact the whole equation. Put it differently, the growing demand for longs. If it is going to be supplied by imported products, if the imports remain as they are, then we will continue to have this difficulty that we have been facing in recent months.
但我們聽說玩家正在推遲他們的一些項目。所以我們必須考慮進口產品。如果這種情況繼續增長,可能會影響整個方程式。換句話說,多頭需求不斷增加。如果是由進口產品供應,如果進口保持原樣,那麼我們將繼續面臨近幾個月來面臨的困難。
But overall, that's not a greater point of concern for us.
但總的來說,這並不是我們更關心的問題。
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
(inaudible), Morgan Stanley.
(聽不清楚),摩根士丹利。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
I have two questions for you. One is about the minimum level of cash that you would like to have in the balance sheet. The cash increased this quarter. There was an important inflow. So I just want to get a sense of the level you would like to have on future looking forward.
我有兩個問題想問你。一是您希望在資產負債表中擁有的最低現金水準。本季現金增加。有重要資金流入。所以我只是想了解您對未來的期望水平。
And what kind of level of leverage you feel comfortable with. The leverage is very low for the company right now. I'd like to understand what is the expected level for the next three quarters. In this regards to South America BD, do you have any different outlook than what was explained in the Investor Day in this month after the Investor Day, has anything changed in each one of the countries?
以及您覺得合適的槓桿水平。目前該公司的槓桿率非常低。我想了解未來三個季度的預期水準是多少。關於南美BD,您對投資者日所解釋的前景有何不同,在投資者日之後的本月,每個國家都有什麼變化嗎?
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Thank you, Virginia. I think that as regarding to our optimal capital structure, there is no structural change at this point. we might revisit this given this greater fluctuation in the exchange rate in the second half of the year, considering that we had growth (inaudible) at BRL12 billion and the cash of about BRL6 billion. At that time, we had a dollar rate about BRL394. Now it's a totally different reality.
謝謝你,維吉尼亞。我認為就我們的最優資本結構而言,目前沒有結構性變化。鑑於下半年匯率波動較大,考慮到我們的成長(聽不清楚)為 120 億雷亞爾,現金約為 60 億雷亞爾,我們可能會重新考慮這一點。當時,我們的美元匯率約為 394 雷亞爾。現在這是一個完全不同的現實。
Of course, we have a new reality for the company as well. But at this moment, we are not making changes regarding our target cash structure. In terms of leverage, we have a limit, not more than 1.5x net debt over EBITDA, and we are way below that level right now. I'd like to remind you that this is not a target of leverage. But the top level, the maximum, given our discipline for the approval of CapEx in disbursements for our obligations.
當然,我們也為公司帶來了新的現實。但目前,我們不會改變目標現金結構。就槓桿而言,我們有一個限制,淨債務不超過 EBITDA 的 1.5 倍,而我們目前遠低於該水準。我想提醒您的是,這不是槓桿目標。但鑑於我們批准資本支出支付我們義務的紀律,這是最高水平,最高水平。
Moving on to the second question about South America. I don't think that there was a significant change regarding what we presented in the Investor Day for South America. We do have a slower, more gradual resumption in the level of activity of the economy in Argentina. And in September, we already saw some signs of a faster resumption of the Argentine economy better compared to prior quarters. But we realized that in the rest in Q3 but this is going to be a recovery of the construction sector and other sectors that consume steel recovering more slowly than we expected initially.
接下來是關於南美洲的第二個問題。我認為我們在南美投資者日所介紹的內容沒有重大變化。阿根廷的經濟活動水準確實以更緩慢、更漸進的方式恢復。九月份,我們已經看到了阿根廷經濟比前幾季更快恢復的一些跡象。但我們意識到,在第三季的剩餘時間裡,建築業和其他消耗鋼材的產業的復甦將比我們最初預期的要慢。
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Our next question from (inaudible)
我們的下一個問題來自(聽不清楚)
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Congrats on your results. We've seen your strategy to earmark your shipments to Brazil BD. And in the past, you said that this would happen right now in the third quarter, mainly because the exchange rate is more favorable. So you would then focus on exports. And now with Trump's election, the exchange rate is higher today.
恭喜你的結果。我們已了解您指定將貨物運往巴西 BD 的策略。過去您說第三季會發生這種情況,主要是因為匯率更有利。因此,您將專注於出口。現在隨著川普當選,今天的匯率更高了。
And today, things in Brazil are not very good, our domestic market is not very good. Therefore, maybe we should expect an exchange rate to be higher in the coming months. Should we consider the fact that you would also increase your exports in your fourth quarter and into 2025? And if yes, what kind of mix of products you would think that you would export and you would have a mix with higher added value or you would also focus on semi finished.
而今天,巴西的情況不太好,我們的國內市場也不太好。因此,也許我們應該預期未來幾個月匯率將會走高。我們是否應該考慮到您也將在第四季和 2025 年增加出口?如果是,您認為您會出口什麼樣的產品組合,並且您將擁有更高附加價值的組合,或者您也會專注於半成品。
My second question, again, speaking about the exchange rate, and I know that Japur already talked about that when he answered from (inaudible) question. But I would just like to get a bit more details about the exchange rate impact on costs. Maybe a higher exchange rate could favor a risk downside to reduce costs on the Brazil BD or is there a very specific reliance on dollar-denominated inputs in your cost structure. We know that some mills are very dependent on slips from third parties. And the exchange rate has impacted industry in general.
我的第二個問題,再次談到匯率,我知道賈普爾在回答(聽不清楚)問題時已經談到了這一點。但我只是想了解更多關於匯率對成本影響的細節。也許較高的匯率可能有利於降低巴西 BD 的成本,或者您的成本結構中是否特別依賴以美元計價的投入。我們知道,有些工廠非常依賴第三方的單據。匯率對整個產業產生了影響。
So is this your case or what kind of inputs would have would be higher -- I mean, more impacted by this higher exchange rate.
這就是你的情況嗎?
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Well, to answer your question, I mean, I will talk about costs later on, but we can get more details from our IR team, especially when we look at our modeling guidance, and you get more details. But let me just answer your question about exports. We had a significant volume of shipments this quarter for exports as we mentioned before, especially given what we indicated last quarter, we understand that at this dollar level, we are beginning the quarter with an exchange rate, which is 5% to 6% higher than what we had last quarter.
好吧,為了回答你的問題,我的意思是,我稍後會討論成本,但我們可以從我們的IR 團隊獲得更多詳細信息,特別是當我們查看我們的建模指南時,你會獲得更多詳細資訊。但讓我回答你關於出口的問題。正如我們之前提到的,本季我們的出口出貨量很大,特別是考慮到我們上季表示的情況,我們知道,在這個美元水準上,我們在本季開始時的匯率將上漲5%至6%比我們上個季度的情況要多。
Therefore, we are better positioned to be more competitive with experts. We are, at the same time, reducing our costs vis-a-vis what we have in the second and third quarters, and we have a better exchange rate that favors exports. That's why we do understand that there is still room for us to grow our exported volumes from Brazil. And given that, maybe we will export more flat or products with higher added value. This is a concrete possibility given this new exchange rate.
因此,我們更有能力與專家競爭。同時,與第二季和第三季相比,我們正在降低成本,我們的匯率更好,有利於出口。這就是為什麼我們確實知道我們的巴西出口量仍有成長空間。有鑑於此,也許我們會出口更多的平板或附加價值較高的產品。鑑於新的匯率,這是一種具體的可能性。
And maybe we thought at first that this will be transitory, but today, taking another look at it, we think that this will be the case for long.
也許我們一開始認為這將是暫時的,但今天,換個角度來看,我們認為這種情況將會長期存在。
Now referring to the cost structure. Within our Brazil BD, the main inputs we have that are denominated in U.S. dollars are iron ore because we buy back from third parties. Eventually, it's not paid in dollars. But pricing has to do with the international price of our iron ore.
現在談談成本結構。在我們的巴西業務部,我們擁有的以美元計價的主要投入是鐵礦石,因為我們從第三方回購。最終,它不是用美元支付的。但定價與我們鐵礦石的國際價格有關。
So it is a tough -- it is dollarized, even though we do not charge it in U.S. dollars and the imports of metallurgical coal. And we do -- we have to buy that to do the clearance of import. So this mix if you think in terms of how much production that we have from our integrated plants and plants that are scrap-based, about 25% of our costs are denominated or paid in U.S. dollars.
所以這是一個困難——它是美元化的,儘管我們不以美元和冶金煤進口收費。我們確實需要購買它來辦理進口清關。因此,如果你考慮我們的綜合工廠和廢品工廠的產量,我們大約 25% 的成本是以美元計價或支付的。
Now when we think of our program to reduce costs and expenses, we usually say that these are expenses and costs that are controllable.
現在,當我們想到減少成本和費用的計劃時,我們通常會說這些費用和成本是可控的。
So everything that refers to maintenance costs, fixed costs, consumption of very specific materials. We can control all of that through our efficiency and competitiveness. And so all of that is factored into this calculation. But variations of scrap, iron ore and coal is not part of that savings or cost and expenses of about BRL1 billion that we project for the Brazil BD for 2025 when compared to 2023. Therefore, we do not understand that a higher exchange rate could eventually pose a risk to our competitive efforts in our BD -- Brazil BD.
因此,一切都涉及維護成本、固定成本、非常特定的材料的消耗。我們可以透過我們的效率和競爭力來控制這一切。因此,所有這些都被納入計算中。但與 2023 年相比,我們預計巴西 BD 到 2025 年將節省約 10 億雷亞爾的成本和費用,但廢鋼、鐵礦石和煤炭的變化並不在其中。因此,我們不明白,較高的匯率最終可能會對我們在巴西 BD 的競爭努力構成風險。
So if you have other questions, you can do a follow-up with our IR team.
因此,如果您還有其他問題,可以與我們的 IR 團隊進行跟進。
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Mariana Velho Dutra - Head, Investor Relations
Thank you, (inaudible). Thank you, everyone. And with that, we conclude our Q&A session. I would like to thank you all for joining us, and I'll turn the floor back to Gustavo for his final remarks.
謝謝你,(聽不清楚)。謝謝大家。至此,我們的問答環節就結束了。我要感謝大家加入我們,我將請古斯塔沃發表最後的演講。
Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Board of Executive Officers, Director
Gustavo Werneck Da Cunha - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Board of Executive Officers, Director
Well, thank you, Marie, for organizing this earnings conference call. And on behalf of Japur and myself, I would like to thank you again for joining us. It's always a great pleasure to talk to you. And I would like to take this opportunity to invite you to our next results video conference for the fourth quarter of 2024, which will be held on February 20, 2025. Thank you all very much, and take care.
好吧,瑪麗,謝謝你組織這次財報電話會議。我謹代表 Japur 和我本人,再次感謝您加入我們。與您交談總是很愉快。我想藉此機會邀請您參加我們將於 2025 年 2 月 20 日舉行的 2024 年第四季業績視訊會議。非常感謝大家,保重。