GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you all for attending the GFL third quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Breeca, and I will be your moderator for today. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Patrick Dovigi, Founder and CEO at GFL Environmental. Thank you. You may proceed, Patrick.

早安，感謝大家參加 GFL 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫 Breeca，我將擔任今天的主持人。（操作員指示）我現在想將會議轉交給東道主帕特里克·多維吉 (Patrick Dovigi)，他是 GFL Environmental 的創始人兼首席執行官。謝謝。你可以繼續了，派崔克。

Thank you, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to today's call, and thank you for joining us. This morning, we will be reviewing our results for the third quarter and providing updates on other items. I'm joined this morning by Luke Pelosi, our CFO, who will take us through the forward-looking disclaimer before we get into details.

謝謝你，早安。我歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議，並感謝您加入我們。今天早上，我們將回顧第三季的業績並提供其他項目的最新情況。今天早上，我們的財務長 Luke Pelosi 也加入了我的行列，他將在我們討論細節之前先向我們介紹前瞻性免責聲明。

Thank you, Patrick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. We have filed our earnings press release, which includes important information. The press release is available on our website. During this call, we will be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and US securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate may occur in the future.

謝謝你，派崔克。大家早安，感謝您的加入。我們已經提交了收益新聞稿，其中包含重要資訊。新聞稿可在我們的網站上取得。在本次電話會議中，我們將做出一些適用加拿大和美國證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明，包括有關我們認為或預期未來可能發生的事件或發展的聲明。

These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set out in our filings with the Canadian and US securities regulators. Any forward-looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements.

這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件中列出的風險和不確定性。任何前瞻性陳述都不是對未來績效的保證，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

These forward-looking statements speak only as of today's date and we do not assume any obligation to update these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events and developments or otherwise. This call will include a discussion of certain non-IFRS measures. A reconciliation of these non-IFRS measures can be found in our filings with the Canadian and US securities regulators.

這些前瞻性陳述僅代表今天的情況，我們不承擔任何更新這些陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件和發展或其他原因。本次電話會議將討論某些非國際財務報告準則措施。這些非國際財務報告準則措施的調節可以在我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件中找到。

I will now turn the call back over to Patrick.

我現在將把電話轉回給帕特里克。

Thank you, Luke. The momentum from our exceptional first half of the year continued through the third quarter, resulting in nearly 20% adjusted EBITDA growth and another quarter of industry-leading margin expansion. The strength of our ongoing operational and financial performance this year once again demonstrates the dedication of our employees the quality of our asset base and the effectiveness of our overall value creation strategies. The impact of the commitment we see every day from our employees cannot be understated.

謝謝你，盧克。我們上半年的強勁勢頭持續到了第三季度，調整後的 EBITDA 成長了近 20%，利潤率又在一個季度實現了行業領先。我們今年持續的營運和財務表現再次證明了我們員工的奉獻精神、我們資產基礎的品質以及我們整體價值創造策略的有效性。我們每天看到員工的承諾所產生的影響是不可低估的。

Our employees handling of the two hurricanes that hit within a two week period is just one example. Given our extensive operations in the US Southeast, the hurricane had the potential to be severely disruptive to our operations. The extensive preparation and exceptional execution of our teams ensured that we were able to keep everyone safe, while continuing to provide essential services to our customers. Once again, I am humbled by the more than 20,000 men and women on team Green.

我們的員工處理兩週內襲擊的兩次颶風只是一個例子。鑑於我們在美國東南部的廣泛業務，颶風有可能嚴重擾亂我們的業務。我們團隊的廣泛準備和卓越執行確保我們能夠確保每個人的安全，同時繼續為客戶提供基本服務。我再次對格林隊 20,000 多名男女員工感到謙卑。

Consistent with our guide, the third quarter saw the highest adjusted EBITDA margin in GFL's history at 31.1%, a 300 basis point margin expansion over the prior year. This margin expansion is driven using all the levers that we have talked about in the prior quarters.

與我們的指引一致，第三季的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 31.1%，為 GFL 歷史上最高，比上年增長了 300 個基點。這種利潤率的擴張是利用我們在前幾個季度討論過的所有槓桿來推動的。

Our disciplined approach to pricing, generating higher price/cost spread against moderating cost inflation. The accretive margin benefits of shedding low-quality revenue and the exiting of noncore service offerings, improved productivity, onboarding efficiency and low cost of risk associated with improving employee turnover, in an M&A strategy, synergy realization as the businesses we have acquired continue to mature within our existing footprint.

我們嚴格的定價方法，在成本通膨放緩的情況下產生更高的價格/成本價差。在併購策略中，隨著我們收購的業務不斷成熟，剝離低品質收入和退出非核心服務產品、提高生產力、入職效率和與改善員工流動率相關的風險成本降低，帶來的利潤增值效益、協同效應的實現在我們現有的足跡範圍內。

Luke will walk through more of the specifics on the margin bridge, but we are extremely pleased with how things are working. This quarter's results once again demonstrate the highly predictable and recurring nature of our business model and further enforce our conviction in our near-term road map that we believe will continue to drive industry-leading financial performance.

盧克將詳細介紹邊緣橋的更多細節，但我們對事情的運作方式非常滿意。本季的業績再次證明了我們業務模式的高度可預測性和重複性，並進一步堅定了我們對近期路線圖的信念，我們相信該路線圖將繼續推動行業領先的財務業績。

In the quarter, we continued to execute on our capital allocation strategy exactly in line with the framework we provided at the end of last year. We are on track to deploy approximately $900 million on both M&A and incremental growth investments this year, as previously announced.

本季度，我們繼續嚴格按照去年年底提供的框架執行資本配置策略。正如先前宣布的那樣，我們今年預計將在併購和增量成長投資上部署約 9 億美元。

During the third quarter, we deployed $96 million into these incremental growth investments, primarily related to recycling and RNG infrastructure. We have commissioned two new MRFs so far this year and expect two more to come online in early 2025. Some of our EPR-related collection contracts started up in the third quarter, and we will see more start-up between now and 2026. The contribution from EPR will be a gold tailwind over the next 24 months, and we remain optimistic about incremental contract wins above and beyond the $130 million of EBITDA we have already talked about.

第三季度，我們為這些增量成長投資部署了 9,600 萬美元，主要與回收和 RNG 基礎設施相關。今年到目前為止，我們已經委託了兩個新的 MRF，預計另外兩個將在 2025 年初上線。我們的一些與 EPR 相關的收款合約已於第三季啟動，從現在到 2026 年我們將看到更多的啟動。EPR 的貢獻將成為未來 24 個月的黃金推動力，我們對贏得超過 1.3 億美元 EBITDA 的合約增量保持樂觀。

As anticipated, two new RNG plants were commissioned in Q3, and we expect 1/to come online before year-end. All three of these projects will drive incremental contribution in 2025 and beyond. We also deployed $47 million into three tuck-in acquisitions and continue to have a robust pipeline of attractive M&A opportunities in our markets. We ended the quarter with net leverage of $4.05, the lowest in GFL's history, demonstrating our absolute commitment to the capital allocation and deleveraging targets that we previously shared.

正如預期的那樣，兩座新的 RNG 工廠已於第三季投入運行，我們預計 1 座工廠將在年底前上線。所有這三個項目都將在 2025 年及以後推動增量貢獻。我們還投入了 4700 萬美元進行三項固定收購，並繼續在我們的市場上擁有大量有吸引力的併購機會。本季結束時，我們的淨槓桿率為 4.05 美元，為 GFL 歷史上的最低水平，這表明我們對先前分享的資本配置和去槓桿化目標的絕對承諾。

As we previewed in August, we officially launched a robust process to evaluate the sale of our Environmental Services segment in September. As anticipated, the best-in-class quality of this asset, coupled with its near-term growth opportunities, has attracted a significant number of highly credible potential buyers from diverse backgrounds.

正如我們在 8 月預覽的那樣，我們在 9 月正式啟動了一個強大的流程來評估環境服務部門的銷售。正如預期的那樣，該資產的一流品質及其近期成長機會吸引了大量來自不同背景的高度可信的潛在買家。

Based on the first round bids that we received last week, we are highly confident that this action at a valuation equal to or greater than we have previously suggested, can be signed and announced before we report our full year results in February. We have conviction that the transaction should met a minimum of $6 billion in after-tax proceeds. We expect to repay at least $3.5 billion of debt with the remainder available to buy back stock and for general corporate purposes.

根據我們上週收到的第一輪投標，我們非常有信心在我們二月報告全年業績之前，可以簽署並宣布這一估值等於或高於我們之前建議的行動。我們堅信，該交易應能實現至少 60 億美元的稅後收益。我們預計將償還至少 35 億美元的債務，其餘部分可用於回購股票和一般公司用途。

Before I hand the call over to Luke, I want to take a minute to talk about the security incident that you may have read about in recent media reports in the context of where GFL is today. I started this business in 2007 with one solid waste transfer station and four old rollout trucks and $250,000 in start-up capital.

在將電話轉交給盧克之前，我想花一點時間談談您可能在最近的媒體報道中讀到的關於 GFL 今天的安全事件。我於 2007 年開始了這項業務，當時有一個固體廢物中轉站、四輛舊卡車和 25 萬美元的啟動資金。

This December will be GFL's 17th anniversary as a company. And today, we are the fourth largest diversified environmental services company in North America. We have operations across 10 Canadian provinces in 25 US states. And this year, we are approaching $8 billion in annual revenue. We have millions of customers who trust us to provide them with their essential environmental services including the over 5 million households that we service across Canada and the United States weekly.

今年 12 月將是 GFL 公司成立 17 週年。如今，我們是北美第四大多元化環境服務公司。我們的業務遍及美國 25 個州的加拿大 10 個省。今年，我們的年收入接近 80 億美元。我們有數百萬客戶相信我們能為他們提供基本的環境服務，其中包括我們每週為加拿大和美國提供服務的超過 500 萬個家庭。

We have achieved this level of success by providing high-quality service at a fair price and through the more than 250 acquisitions we have completed to date. With many of those owner operators staying on with us post-acquisition to continue to contribute to the integration of their businesses into GFL. We have a reputation in the industry of doing what we say we're going to do, and we are very proud of that reputation.

我們透過以合理的價格提供高品質的服務以及迄今已完成的 250 多項收購取得瞭如此成功。許多業主經營者在收購後仍留在我們身邊，繼續為他們的業務融入 GFL 做出貢獻。我們在業界享有言出必行的聲譽，我們對此聲譽感到非常自豪。

Investors in GFL now include the highest quality institutions from private equity funds to pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and leading financial institutions around the world. Many of our investors have been with GFL since our early days and have done extensive due diligence on GFL, our leadership team and the industry.

GFL的投資者現在包括全球最優質的機構，從私募股權基金到退休基金、主權財富基金和領先的金融機構。我們的許多投資者從 GFL 成立之初就開始投資，並對 GFL、我們的領導團隊和產業進行了廣泛的盡職調查。

All of our long-term investors have earned significant returns on their capital that they've invested with us. They have and continue to put their confidence in us to be the stewards of their capital and create long-term value for them. We do not take that trust lightly.

我們所有的長期投資者都透過向我們投資的資本獲得了可觀的回報。他們已經並將繼續相信我們能夠成為他們資本的管理者並為他們創造長期價值。我們不會輕視這種信任。

Regarding the recent events, we are not going to comment on any specifics because the police are investigating these incidents and the investigations are ongoing. While the media likes to speculate, we would encourage everyone to allow the authorities to do their work. We are cooperating in the investigations and trust that the authorities will bring them to a successful resolution, hopefully in the near term.

對於最近發生的事件，我們不會對任何細節發表評論，因為警方正在調查這些事件，而且調查正在進行中。雖然媒體喜歡猜測，但我們鼓勵大家讓當局做他們的工作。我們正在配合調查，並相信當局將在短期內成功解決問題。

We are also working with third-party security consultants to review our security measures and any additional precautions we should be taking. While the authorities continue to do their work, we also remain focused on the safety and well-being of our employees who, as I said before, are the core to everything we do.

我們也與第三方安全顧問合作，審查我們的安全措施以及我們應採取的任何其他預防措施。在當局繼續開展工作的同時，我們也繼續關注員工的安全和福祉，正如我之前所說，他們是我們所做一切的核心。

The results we've achieved this quarter and throughout our history, are a reflection of all of the hard work and dedication of GFL's more than 20,000 employees. We have hundreds of facilities across our platform, and these incidents are not going to derail or distract us from continuing to drive the business forward.

我們本季以及整個歷史所取得的成果反映了 GFL 20,000 多名員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我們的平台上有數百個設施，這些活動不會使我們脫軌或分散我們繼續推動業務的注意力。

I will now turn the call over to Luke for additional color on the quarter, and I will then have some closing remarks before we open it up for Q&A.

現在，我將把電話轉給盧克，以獲取有關本季度的更多信息，然後在我們開始問答之前，我將發表一些結束語。

Thanks, Patrick. Consolidated revenue for the quarter of $2.015 billion was right in line with our guidance after giving effect to FX and commodity prices. The third quarter saw 11.3% revenue growth in solid waste when excluding the impact of the divestiture driven by stronger-than-expected solid waste pricing of 6% and volume of minus 0.8%, a 90 basis point sequential improvement over Q2 despite initial storm-related impacts at the end of the quarter.

謝謝，派崔克。外匯和大宗商品價格生效後，該季度的綜合收入為 20.15 億美元，與我們的指引完全一致。排除因強於預期的固體廢物定價 6% 和銷量負 0.8% 所導致的資產剝離的影響，第三季度固體廢物收入增長 11.3%，儘管最初遭遇風暴，但比第二季度環比增長 90 個基點。季度末的相關影響。

We expect volumes to turn positive in the fourth quarter and as we anniversary most of the impacts of our targeted volume shedding initiatives. Decreases in commodity and energy prices reduced third quarter revenues derived from the sale of commodities as well as fuel surcharges compared to our guidance, a trend we expect to continue in the fourth quarter.

我們預計第四季銷售將轉為正數，同時也是我們目標銷售削減計畫所產生的大部分影響週年紀念日。與我們的指導相比，大宗商品和能源價格的下跌減少了第三季度來自大宗商品銷售和燃油附加費的收入，我們預計這一趨勢將在第四季度持續。

Environmental Services revenue was up 3% compared to the prior year, inclusive of the impact of lower UMO pricing and a tough comp arising from a large-scale event-driven revenue realized in the prior year period. Excluding the impact of these two items, segment revenue was up 9% versus the prior year, demonstrating the strength of our price-led growth strategy to offset this lower level of event-driven activity that we continue to see in certain markets.

環境服務收入較上年增長 3%，其中包括 UMO 定價較低的影響以及上年期間實現的大規模事件驅動收入帶來的嚴峻競爭。排除這兩項的影響，該部門的收入比上年增長了9%，這證明了我們以價格為主導的增長戰略的力量，抵消了我們在某些​​市場中繼續看到的事件驅動活動水平較低的影響。

Adjusted EBITDA margins were 31.1% for the quarter, 300 basis points over the prior year and the first time in our history that we've reported adjusted EBITDA margins of over 30%. For context, adjusted EBITDA margins in Q3 2019, the first publicly reported third quarter results we have were 25.1%, this quarter representing 600 basis points of margin expansion over those past five years.

本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 31.1%，比前一年提高 300 個基點，這是我們歷史上首次報告調整後 EBITDA 利潤率超過 30%。就背景而言，2019 年第三季的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率（我們首次公開報告的第三季業績）為 25.1%，本季的利潤率比過去五年增長了 600 個基點。

Solid waste adjusted EBITDA margins were up 340 basis points, inclusive of tailwinds from commodity and fuel prices, the impact of recent divestitures and the impact of the results of our RNG joint ventures flowing through our P&L, which overcame headwinds from M&A that came in at decretive EBITDA margins, a dilutive margin impact of the increased cost of risk as well as the impact of reclassification of certain costs that had been recognized in the corporate segment in the prior period.

固體廢棄物調整後的EBITDA 利潤率成長了340 個基點，其中包括大宗商品和燃料價格的推動因素、近期資產剝離的影響以及RNG 合資企業業績流經損益表的影響，克服了2017 年併購帶來的不利因素。

Environmental Services adjusted EBITDA margins were 32.2%, 110 basis points ahead of the prior year despite headwinds from used motor oil pricing and increased cost of risk. Adjusted free cash flow and adjusted net income were $225 million and $126 million, respectively, both exactly in line with expectations and another data point illustrating the highly predictable nature of our financial results.

儘管廢機油定價和風險成本增加帶來了阻力，環境服務部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 32.2%，比前一年高出 110 個基點。調整後的自由現金流和調整後的淨利潤分別為 2.25 億美元和 1.26 億美元，兩者完全符合預期，而另一個數據點說明了我們財務表現的高度可預測性。

Net leverage at the end of the quarter was 4.05, ahead of expectations, largely on account of translational FX, but when looking through the FX impact, this result is consistent with the quarterly cadence on which our year-end net leverage target is based.

本季末的淨槓桿率為 4.05，超出預期，這主要是由於外匯的平移，但在審視外匯影響時，這一結果與我們年終淨槓桿目標所依據的季度節奏一致。

As you all know, it is difficult to predict where FX rates will be in the future, but on a constant currency basis, we continue to track towards the net leverage range outlined in our 2024 capital allocation framework. After quarter end, we were successful in issuing our first industrial revenue bond, a tax-efficient financing instrument commonly used by all of our public company peers, the USD210 million bond was issued with a 4.375% coupon rate, approximately 100 basis points lower than the current weighted average effective interest rate on our other long-term debt. Our initial foray into the tax-exempt bond market is another example of the incremental financing opportunities we expect to become available with our increasing credit quality profile.

眾所周知，很難預測未來的匯率，但在貨幣不變的基礎上，我們將繼續追蹤 2024 年資本配置架構中概述的淨槓桿範圍。季末後，我們成功發行了首單工業收益債券，這是我們所有上市公司同業普遍使用的節稅融資工具，發行金額為2.1億美元，票面利率為4.375%，較去年同期低約100個基點。我們其他長期債務的當前加權平均實際利率。我們最初涉足免稅債券市場是我們期望隨著信用品質狀況不斷提高而獲得增量融資機會的另一個例子。

We have one additional secured bond in our current debt stack that becomes callable at par in the third quarter of next year. The debt remain -- markets remain highly constructive, and we expect to address these notes in advance of the maturity through cash on hand, proceeds from divestitures or opportunistically accessing the debt markets when a window presents itself.

我們目前的債務組合中還有一份額外的擔保債券，將於明年第三季以面額贖回。債務仍然存在——市場仍然具有高度建設性，我們預計透過手頭現金、剝離收益或在窗口出現時機會主義地進入債務市場，在到期前解決這些票據問題。

During the quarter, we also converted approximately $14.5 million of our Series A perpetual convertible preferred shares into 16 million common shares. The conversion had no impact on our total diluted shares outstanding. Given our robust Q3 results and our expectations for the fourth quarter, we now expect revenue of approximately [$7.82 billion to $7.5 billion] for the year.

在本季度，我們還將約 1,450 萬美元的 A 輪永久可轉換優先股轉換為 1,600 萬股普通股。此次轉換對我們稀釋後的已發行股份總數沒有影響。鑑於我們強勁的第三季業績和對第四季的預期，我們現在預計今年的營收約為 [78.2 億美元至 75 億美元]。

All other aspects of our previously provided guidance remain unchanged. As a result, our expectation for fiscal 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin increases for the third time this year to approximately 28.6%, representing an industry-leading 200 basis point margin expansion over the prior year.

我們之前提供的指導的所有其他方面均保持不變。因此，我們對 2024 財年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的預期今年第三次上調至約 28.6%，比上一年增長了 200 個基點，處於行業領先地位。

Specifically, as it relates to the fourth quarter, we expect consolidated revenue of approximately $1.94 billion to $1.97 billion at just over 29% adjusted EBITDA margin representing another quarter of 300 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion.

具體來說，就第四季度而言，我們預計綜合收入約為 19.4 億美元至 19.7 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率略高於 29%，意味著利潤率同比又增長了 300 個基點。

Q4 adjusted free cash flow and adjusted net income are expected to be approximately $350 million and $75 million to $80 million, respectively. Due to the significant impact, the potential sale of our Environmental Services segment would have on our financial outlook, we're going to wait until February to provide our fulsome 2025 framework and guidance.

第四季調整後自由現金流和調整後淨利潤預計分別約為 3.5 億美元和 7,500 萬至 8,000 萬美元。由於環境服務部門的潛在出售將對我們的財務前景產生重大影響，我們將等到 2 月提供完整的 2025 年框架和指導。

In addition, we plan to have an Investor Day in early 2024, details of which will be announced soon. However, where we sit today, we have a strong line of sight to a mid-single-digit top line organic growth, double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and another year of more than a 100 basis points margin expansion. Layering in the potential contribution from completing even a portion of our current M&A pipeline, we could see 2025 adjusted EBITDA growth in the low to mid-teens.

此外，我們計劃在 2024 年初舉辦投資者日，具體細節將很快公佈。然而，就我們今天的情況而言，我們對實現中個位數的營收有機增長、兩位數的調整後 EBITDA 增長以及再一年超過 100 個基點的利潤率擴張抱有強烈的願景。考慮到完成我們目前併購管道的一部分所帶來的潛在貢獻，我們可以看到 2025 年調整後的 EBITDA 成長率將在 10% 左右。

I will now pass the call back to Patrick, who will provide some closing comments before Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉給帕特里克，他將在問答之前提供一些結束語。

Thank you, Luke. The value creation opportunity at GFL has never been better. We have laid out the foundation for long-term growth, and we believe that we are uniquely positioned for industry-leading financial performance over the near term. This year's performance demonstrates the strength of what we have built and moving into 2025, the set-up is very clear.

謝謝你，盧克。GFL 的價值創造機會從未如此美好。我們已經為長期成長奠定了基礎，我們相信我們處於獨特的地位，可以在短期內實現行業領先的財務表現。今年的表現展現了我們所建立的實力，並進入 2025 年，佈局非常明確。

Continue to advance the ESL process, giving us the opportunity to accelerate our deleveraging plan and explore options to buy back our stock, continue to focus on generating industry-leading organic margin expansion in our solid waste business, benefit from the ramping contributions from both extended producer responsibility in our RNG facilities, and execute on our robust M&A pipeline while maintaining leverage targets and continue progressing towards an investment-grade credit rating.

繼續推進ESL流程，使我們有機會加快去槓桿計劃並探索回購股票的選擇，繼續專注於在我們的固體廢物業務中實現行業領先的有機利潤擴張，受益於雙方的不斷增長的貢獻我們的RNG設施中的生產者責任，並執行我們強大的併購管道，同時維持槓桿目標並繼續朝著投資等級信用評級邁進。

As I said many times before, all that we have achieved is a testament to the hard work and dedication of all of our employees. On behalf of all of GFL's management team, I want to thank each and every one of our employees and our investors as well as our customers and our communities for the continued loyalty and support.

正如我之前多次說過的，我們所取得的一切成績都是全體員工辛勤工作和奉獻的證明。我謹代表 GFL 的所有管理團隊感謝我們的每一位員工、投資者以及客戶和社區的持續忠誠和支持。

This quarter also sees us announcing the change of our leadership team in a long-planned succession, effective January 1, Greg Yorston, will transition the COO role to Billy Soffera, our current EVP of our solid waste operations.

本季度，我們也宣布了長期計劃的領導團隊繼任變動，自1 月1 日起生效，Greg Yorston 將把首席營運官職位移交給比利·索弗拉(Billy Soffera)，他是我們固體廢物業務的現任執行副總裁。

Greg has had a distinguished career in the waste industry of nearly 40 years. Starting in Western Canada in 1986, Greg and his family moved 8 times throughout the US before he settled that waste industries in 2013. Greg's Canadian roots came full circle when he took on the role of COO following GFL's 2018 merger with waste industries.

Greg 在垃圾處理行業擁有近 40 年的傑出職業生涯。1986 年，格雷格和他的家人從加拿大西部開始，在美國各地搬了 8 次家，直到 2013 年定居垃圾處理廠。2018 年 GFL 與垃圾處理行業合併後，Greg 出任首席營運官，他的加拿大血統又回到了起點。

Since then, Greg has been instrumental in executing our growth strategy across our solid waste platform and instilling operational disciplines across all of these operations. I know that we would not be where we are today if we work for Greg's leadership and dedication to GFL over the last six years. I am personally very grateful for all of his contributions and feel very fortunate to know that GFL will continue to benefit from his expertise through 2025.

從那時起，格雷格一直在執行我們在固體廢物平台上的成長策略，並在所有這些業務中灌輸營運紀律方面發揮了重要作用。我知道，如果我們在過去六年裡依靠格雷格的領導和對 GFL 的奉獻，我們就不會取得今天的成績。我個人非常感謝他的所有貢獻，並非常幸運地知道 GFL 將在 2025 年繼續受益於他的專業知識。

Billy has been a key member of our operational leadership team since he joined us in 2021. Billy should be familiar to many of you who with his more than 30 years of experience in the solid waste industry, including at Republic Services and most recently before he joined GFL at Advanced Disposal.

自 2021 年加入我們以來，Billy 一直是我們營運領導團隊的重要成員。Billy 對許多人來說應該很熟悉，他在固體廢棄物行業擁有 30 多年的經驗，包括在 Republic Services 以及最近加入 GFL 的 Advanced Disposal 之前。

Billy has worked as Greg's right hand since 2021 and with his decades of industry and GFL experience, Billy is uniquely positioned to take on the leadership of our solid waste operations. This succession has been extensively planned, and we are highly confident in the seamless transition.

Billy 自 2021 年起一直擔任 Greg 的得力助手，憑藉數十年的行業和 GFL 經驗，Billy 擁有獨特的優勢來領導我們的固體廢物業務。這次繼任經過了廣泛的規劃，我們對無縫過渡充滿信心。

I will now turn the call over to the operator to open the line for Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉給接線員，以開通問答線。

(Operator Instructions) Patrick Brown, Raymond James.

（操作員說明）派崔克布朗，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Patrick, I just want to kind of -- thanks for all the details on the ES sale, but I just want to be clear. So the $6 billion is net of any tax leakage. I don't necessarily want to go down a big rabbit hole here on taxes paid or how a deal might be structured. But kind of regardless of those taxes, I mean, the implied multiple on this deal is still very attractive. It's fully consistent with the multiples that you guys had talked about last quarter. Would that be correct?

帕特里克，我只是想——感謝有關 ES 銷售的所有細節，但我只是想澄清一下。因此，這 60 億美元是扣除任何稅收洩漏後的淨值。我不一定想在繳納的稅款或交易的結構方面陷入困境。但不管這些稅收如何，我的意思是，這筆交易的隱含倍數仍然非常有吸引力。這與你們上個季度談論的市盈率完全一致。那是正確的嗎？

Yes, that's correct. I think, Patrick, what we meant to sort of illustrate with this is -- I mean, there's been lots of media attention on what the actual value of this business is. I think what we tried to articulate is that we have a very, very high degree of confidence that we will deliver a minimum amount of $6 billion in cash proceeds. Obviously, as enterprise values continue to increase, so does the tax bill.

是的，這是正確的。我想，派崔克，我們想用這個來說明的是——我的意思是，有很多媒體關注這項業務的實際價值。我認為我們試圖表達的是，我們非常非常有信心能夠交付至少 60 億美元的現金收益。顯然，隨著企業價值的不斷增加，稅收也隨之增加。

And I think from our perspective, We are looking to find the most efficient structure from a tax perspective, given as increased enterprise value equals increased taxes. And I think -- but what you can underwrite is that there's going to be a minimum of $6 billion of cash proceeds.

我認為從我們的角度來看，我們正在尋求從稅收角度找到最有效的結構，因為企業價值的增加等於稅收的增加。我認為，但你可以承保的是，至少有 60 億美元的現金收益。

$3.5 billion of that is going to get -- a minimum of $3.5 billion that's going to get these repost -- get to repay debt. And then the balance will be used for general corporate purposes and share buybacks. But I think that was clearly meant to demonstrate we have a very high degree of confidence in that today.

其中 35 億美元將用於償還債務——至少 35 億美元將用於這些轉發。然後餘額將用於一般公司用途和股票回購。但我認為這顯然是為了表明我們今天對此充滿信心。

Yes. Okay. Excellent. And then big picture, Luke, as we kind of look to '25, can we talk about some of the breadcrumbs rule, just had a very high level, specifically around EPR and RNG. I mean right now, how much incremental EBITDA would you expect from both of those buckets? Would it be something like $30 million to $40 million incrementally for each in '25? And then the contribution kind of steps up into '26?

是的。好的。出色的。然後是大局，盧克，當我們回顧25年時，我們能談談一些麵包屑規則嗎？我的意思是，現在，您期望從這兩個桶中獲得多少增量 EBITDA？25 年每個人會增加 3000 萬到 4000 萬美元嗎？然後貢獻會增加到'26？

Yes. So Tyler, I think you're thinking about it right in terms of the ramp. I mean if you take EPR this year, as we said, de minimis impact, I think $5 million to $10 million of EBITDA in your results. That number is going to go up to call it, sort of $40 million to $50 million next year. So you have that sort of incremental $35 million, $45 million from EPR.

是的。泰勒，我認為你在坡道方面的考慮是正確的。我的意思是，如果您今年採用 EPR，正如我們所說，影響微乎其微，我認為您的結果中將有 500 萬至 1000 萬美元的 EBITDA。明年這個數字將會上升到 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。因此，EPR 增加了 3500 萬美元、4500 萬美元。

On the RNG side, this year, the one facility, Arbor Hills, roughly $25 million, $30 million of EBITDA. And I think that number should look to sort of double into next year.

在 RNG 方面，今年，阿伯山 (Arbor Hills) 的一家工廠的營收約為 2,500 萬美元，其中 EBITDA 為 3,000 萬美元。我認為明年這個數字應該會翻倍。

Obviously, on the RNG side, RIN pricing can play a factor of that. I think we're being pretty conservative with our expectations on RIN, that's keeping it well below today's levels. So we're basically doubling up the MMBtus with the new plants that have come on. New plants that will come on later in '25 and into '26 will have de minimis impact in here. So I'd say the RNG number in that sort of #35 million to $45 million incremental and -- sorry, EPR, $35 million, $45 million incremental and RNG in that sort of $25 million to $30 million range.

顯然，在 RNG 方面，RIN 定價可以發揮其中的作用。我認為我們對 RIN 的期望相當保守，這使其遠低於今天的水平。所以我們基本上是用新的植物來讓 MMBtus 增加一倍。將於 25 年晚些時候和 26 年建成的新工廠將對這裡產生微不足道的影響。所以我想說的是，RNG 的增量是 3500 萬美元到 4500 萬美元，抱歉，EPR，增量是 3500 萬美元、4500 萬美元，而 RNG 的增量是 2500 萬美元到 3000 萬美元。

Yes. Perfect. And then just to be clear, there's no -- at this point, based on deals done to date, there's really no M&A impact in '25 as of right now.

是的。完美的。然後需要明確的是，目前來看，根據迄今為止完成的交易，截至目前，25 年確實沒有併購影響。

No. But what I will say on M&A for '25, obviously, with a high degree of confidence that we're going to get something done in relatively short order. We've been building our pipeline. So I think next year, we have -- we'll have a very good setup from an M&A perspective across both Canada and the US So to Luke's earlier comments of just a setup for 2025 and the potential impact from incremental M&A.

不。但顯然，我對 25 年的併購充滿信心，我們將在相對較短的時間內完成一些工作。我們一直在建造我們的管道。因此，我認為明年，從加拿大和美國的併購角度來看，我們將有一個非常好的設置，因此盧克之前對 2025 年設置以及增量併購的潛在影響的評論。

Well, again, sort of maintaining the leverage targets that we have with the focus on the investment-grade credit rating, we're going to have a very good setup with the proceeds that we received from ES to be able to sort of double down on the solid waste businesses in our markets that are going to be sort of highly accretive to the -- both from a free cash flow perspective and just an operational perspective.

好吧，再說一次，為了維持我們的槓桿目標，重點關注投資級信用評級，我們將從 ES 收到的收益進行了很好的設置，以便能夠加倍投資我們市場上的固體廢物業務將極大地增加——無論是從自由現金流的角度還是從營運的角度來看。

And Tyler, I mean, to Patrick's point, like M&A is really this kicker to what's an extremely attractive organic setup because as I said in the prepared remarks, like mid-single-digit top line, like think of it that, and we'll come out with the specifics. But I think there's a path where you have another 100 basis points of spread of price over year sort of cost inflation. .

泰勒，我的意思是，就帕特里克的觀點而言，併購確實是一個極具吸引力的有機設置的推動者，因為正如我在準備好的評論中所說，就像中個位數的頂線一樣，想想這一點，我們'具體情況會出來的。但我認為，在某種路徑上，一年中的物價差會再增加 100 個基點，類似成本通膨。。

So if you think at the margin level, you've got a mid-single digit on the top line, 100 basis points of spread, that should give you 60, 70 basis points of margin coming out of the spread. You got R&G and EPR that we just talked to that's additive to that. The Michigan divestitures, anniversary next year, you pick up another sort of 20 basis points there.

因此，如果您考慮保證金水平，頂行有一個中個位數，即 100 個基點的利差，這應該會給您帶來 60、70 個基點的利差保證金。我們剛剛談到了 R&G 和 EPR，這是對此的補充。明年是密西根州資產剝離週年紀念日，你會在那裡獲得另一種 20 個基點。

So you don't need to believe a lot to see 100 basis points sort of margin expansion. And so this natural organically, EBITDA would be up 8%. The RNG and EPR contribution is another two. That puts you at a 10% EBITDA increase before considering M&A. And we're feeling like really confident in those numbers. So we think it is a very attractive setup as we're getting into next year.

因此，您無需相信太多就能看到 100 個基點的利潤率擴張。因此，自然有機地，EBITDA 將成長 8%。RNG和EPR的貢獻是另外兩個。這意味著您在考慮併購之前 EBITDA 會增加 10%。我們對這些數字非常有信心。因此，我們認為，隨著我們進入明年，這是一個非常有吸引力的設置。

Saba Khan, RBC Capital Markets.

薩巴汗，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Great. Maybe just continuing on the margin discussion. And it sounds like you'll probably provide a bit of a medium-term outlook at our Investor Day. But if you put the ES business aside, can you maybe just give us maybe just rehash kind of the margin journey? Obviously, a peak margin this quarter, how we should think about the margins over the next two, three, four years and maybe the bigger bucket drivers over the medium term, specifically for the solid waste business.

偉大的。也許只是繼續進行邊際討論。聽起來您可能會在我們的投資者日提供一些中期前景。但如果你把 ES 業務放在一邊，你能給我們重述一下利潤之旅嗎？顯然，本季的利潤率達到峰值，我們應該如何考慮未來兩年、三年、四年的利潤率，也許還有中期更大的驅動力，特別是對於固體廢棄物業務。

Yes. So, it sounds like you're trying to steal our thunder from Investor Day, but at a high level, look, I think you have the base algorithm of price-cost spread. I think what you're seeing this year and industry-wide you're hearing the conviction going to '25 and beyond, that -- I think that's here to stay. We can debate what the new norm is, but I think you're going to be seeing this ongoing base margin expansion coming out of that dynamic.

是的。所以，聽起來你想搶我們在投資者日的風頭，但從高層次來看，我認為你擁有價格成本價差的基本演算法。我想你今年和整個產業所看到的，你會聽到25年及以後的信念——我認為這種情況將持續下去。我們可以討論新規範是什麼，但我認為您將看到這種動態帶來的持續的基礎利潤率擴張。

And I think where we're at is in the relatively sort of infancy of some of our price discovery, we probably have some runway of that above and beyond what the industry peers are. Then in addition, we have the whole discovery of ancillary pricing charges, right, which is just net newer in our book, less mature in our application of that. And that's going to provide us what we foresee to be an incremental tailwind as we just catch up to where the industry already is.

我認為我們目前的價格發現還處於相對初級階段，我們可能有一些超越行業同行的跑道。此外，我們還發現了輔助定價費用的整個發現，對吧，這在我們的書中只是較新的，在我們的應用中還不太成熟。這將為我們提供我們所預見的增量順風，因為我們剛剛趕上行業已經達到的水平。

So you have a very attractive sort of price-cost spread driver of annual margin expansion. You take EPR and R&D, I mean, Tyler was asking about the '25 amounts, but take them all the way to fruition. And over the next couple of years, you're going to get at least this $130 million of EPR coming in at accretive margins. And you have RNG that from this year's $25 million to $30 million is going to ramp up to $175 million plus, right, which is highly in margin accretive, right? You should realize all the benefit of that over the next two to three years as well.

因此，年度利潤率擴張的價格成本價差驅動因素非常有吸引力。以 EPR 和研發為例，我的意思是，泰勒問的是 25 年的金額，但要一路實現。在接下來的幾年裡，您將獲得至少 1.3 億美元的 EPR，並獲得增值利潤。RNG 從今年的 2500 萬美元到 3000 萬美元將增至 1.75 億美元，對吧，這是高度增值的，對吧？在接下來的兩到三年內，您也應該意識到這樣做的所有好處。

And then Patrick's prepared remarks spoke to what's happening within the base business of the continued maturation of our optimization sort of processes within, whether that's procurement or its asset utilization, everything we've been doing to optimize the business we have and the continued maturation of synergy realization from recent M&A.

然後帕特里克準備好的演講談到了基礎業務中正在發生的事情，即我們優化流程的持續成熟，無論是採購還是資產利用，我們為優化我們的業務所做的一切以及持續成熟的業務最近的併購實現了協同效應。

And so when you put this all together on the remaining solid waste business, I think there's a very clear path to what should be industry-leading market expansion, taking us to a place where we should be sort of very close to best-in-class on our sort of solid waste margins. So we're feeling really good. The exact breadcrumbs we'll provide at Investor Day, but that's the broad sort of strokes of the outlook.

因此，當你把所有這些放在剩下的固體廢物業務上時，我認為有一條非常清晰的道路可以實現行業領先的市場擴張，將我們帶到一個非常接近最佳的地方——我們的固體廢棄物利潤率類別。所以我們感覺非常好。我們將在投資者日提供確切的麵包屑，但這只是前景的大致內容。

Great. Appreciate that. And then I think the commentary around $3.5 billion at least of debt paydown. Just at high level numbers gets you to a very low 3x leverage. Is that sort of the leverage ratio, I guess, would that be a happy place to kind of continue to do M&A and maintain leverage? Is that how we should sort of read into that low 3x leverage pro forma the sale? Just any thoughts you could share there.

偉大的。很欣賞這一點。然後我認為至少有 35 億美元的債務償還評論。在高水準的數字下，您可以達到非常低的 3 倍槓桿。我想，這樣的槓桿率是繼續進行併購並維持槓桿率的好地方嗎？我們該如何解讀預計銷售中的低 3 倍槓桿？您可以在那裡分享任何想法。

Yes. Obviously, the cash flow is going to continue to ramp. And obviously, with the organic growth, we're going to continue to organically grow the business, which is again to continue pushing leverage down. I think from a rating agency perspective, you want to maintain leverage between sort of 3% and 3.5% to get to that investment-grade rate credit rating.

是的。顯然，現金流將繼續增加。顯然，隨著有機成長，我們將繼續有機成長業務，這將再次繼續降低槓桿率。我認為從評級機構的角度來看，您希望將槓桿率維持在 3% 到 3.5% 之間，以獲得投資等級利率信用評級。

And again, we're moving all the way down there, so we're going to stay down there. So I think depending on sort of what M&A and timing of M&A could step up a little bit for a quarter two, sure, but we're going to maintain leverage between the 3% and 3.5%.

再說一遍，我們要一路往下移動，所以我們要留在那裡。因此，我認為，根據併購類型和併購時機，第二季的槓桿率肯定會有所提高，但我們將把槓桿率維持在 3% 至 3.5% 之間。

Kevin Chiang, CIBC.

凱文·蔣，CIBC。

Hey, Thank you for taking my question. Maybe if I can just ask on EPR. It seems like as you've gone on this journey, it seems like the -- you've kind of pointed to there being just more upside relative to the original opportunities you saw in front of you. And you kind of mentioned in your prepared remarks, Patrick, you could see upside to $130 million.

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。也許我可以在 EPR 上詢問。當你踏上這段旅程時，你似乎已經指出，相對於你在你面前看到的最初機會，還有更多的好處。派崔克，您在準備好的發言中提到，您可能會看到 1.3 億美元的上漲空間。

I'm just wondering, based on the investments you're putting forward, is there a way to think about I guess, the blue sky earnings potential based on the capacity that you'll be putting into the market? Or when you think about the excess of $130 million, does that require more investment to more facilities to service those new contracts?

我只是想知道，根據您提出的投資，是否有一種方法可以根據您將投入市場的產能來考慮藍天盈利潛力？或者當您想到超過 1.3 億美元時，這是否需要更多投資來建造更多設施來為這些新合約提供服務？

Yes. Like we said, Ontario was basically done, and that's the number that Luke is referencing, coupled together with an incremental opportunity in Quebec. What's still out there on the table is the Maritimes as well as Alberta and Saskatchewan and sort of Manitoba. Those are the sort of next big ones to fall. I think blue sky scenario, you'd be pushing closer to $200 million of EBITDA, right? I would say that's the blue sky scenario.

是的。正如我們所說，安大略省基本上已經完成，這就是盧克引用的數字，再加上魁北克省的增量機會。仍在談判桌上的是濱海省、艾伯塔省、薩斯喀徹溫省以及馬尼托巴省。這些都是下一個要倒下的大公司。我認為在藍天情景下，您的 EBITDA 會接近 2 億美元，對吧？我想說這就是藍天場景。

Could we potentially get to the blue sky scenario? The answer is probably yes. Are we underwriting that? The answer is no, but it's certainly going to be more than $130 million and potentially sort of slightly less than $200 million. But we're feeling very confident about our asset positioning and our positions in those markets.

我們有可能實現藍天場景嗎？答案可能是肯定的。我們承保嗎？答案是否定的，但肯定會超過 1.3 億美元，並且可能略低於 2 億美元。但我們對我們的資產定位和在這些市場中的地位非常有信心。

Again, I guess, just from an asset positioning perspective, we're in very good shape in a lot of those markets. So -- and obviously, with our relationship, with circular materials and how we sort of build this program and design the program, I think we're in a good spot to get our fair share. But as those bids continue to move forward, we're certainly at the top of the pile, and we're continuing to push forward on all of them.

我想，僅從資產定位的角度來看，我們在許多市場中都處於非常好的狀態。因此，顯然，憑藉我們的關係、循環材料以及我們構建和設計該計劃的方式，我認為我們處於獲得公平份額的好位置。但隨著這些投標的繼續推進，我們無疑處於領先地位，並且我們將繼續推進所有這些投標。

And Kevin, I mean, as Patrick said, asset positioning. I mean some of those markets, we can use an existing facility to drive incremental volume and profitability to -- so call it, CapEx line. In another market, we may need to build a facility. But again, going back, the return profile of these, it's the type of business that we're in. We like to invest that capital in places where we can have long-term visibility on predictable sort of cash flows. And the new contract of the contracts supports that.

凱文，正如派崔克所說，我的意思是資產定位。我的意思是，在其中一些市場，我們可以使用現有設施來推動增量銷售和獲利能力——所謂的資本支出線。在另一個市場，我們可能需要建造一個設施。但話又說回來，這些的回報概況，這就是我們所處的業務類型。我們喜歡將資金投資於能夠長期了解可預測現金流的地方。新合約中的合約也支持了這一點。

And so I think it will be a combination in the end of that sort of blue sky between using existing and building net new. But both options, I think, fit within the overall margin return on invested capital framework with which we evaluate all of our capital decisions.

所以我認為這將是使用現有網路和建立新網路之間的藍天最終的結合。但我認為，這兩種選擇都符合我們評估所有資本決策的投資資本總體利潤回報框架。

That's helpful. And then just my second question. I'm just wondering like in a post-ES sale world and obviously, you have cash here to deploy towards your capital structure. Does that change how you think about the working capital seasonality you have? It looks like, I guess, in 2024 here it will be the third year in a row where you have a pretty big capital -- working capital unwind in Q4, so you kind of have -- it's a heavier lift in the first three quarters. Does that change in a post ES world? Is that something that you can address as you kind of think of pure solid waste business?

這很有幫助。然後是我的第二個問題。我只是想知道，就像在後 ES 銷售世界中一樣，顯然，你有現金可以部署到你的資本結構中。這是否會改變您對營運資金季節性的看法？我猜，到 2024 年，這將是連續第三年擁有相當大的資本——第四季度營運資本減少，所以前三個季度的提振力度更大。在後 ES 世界中，這種情況會改變嗎？當您考慮純粹的固體廢棄物業務時，這是您可以解決的問題嗎？

Yes, absolutely, Kevin. I mean a big component of that working capital seasonality profile you see today is driven by, yes, it's the most seasonal of our business. It's a function of the larger Canadian exposure it has, plus just the sort of nature of the work that gets done. I mean, this year, although the year-to-date investment in working capital is sort of exactly the same as last year, you can see more muted swings in each of the quarters.

是的，絕對是，凱文。我的意思是，您今天看到的營運資金季節性狀況的一個重要組成部分是由，是的，這是我們業務中最具季節性的因素驅動的。這是其在加拿大的較大曝光度以及所完成工作的性質的函數。我的意思是，今年，儘管年初至今的營運資本投資與去年完全相同，但您可以看到每個季度的波動更加溫和。

And the guy has Q4 sort of reflecting back to sort of zero. So again, smaller, more muted swings than what you had historically. Excluding ES from that, today, it's comingled. But when you carve that out, the DSO profile of the business on a blended will improve to sort of a lower number and the gap of DPO is going to be more stable and narrower.

這傢伙的第四季有點反映為零。再次強調，波動比以往更小、更柔和。排除 ES 之外，今天，它是混合的。但當你把這一點考慮在內時，混合業務的 DSO 概況將改善到較低的數字，而 DPO 的差距將更加穩定和縮小。

So I think you will see exactly what you're anticipating. Our Canadian solid waste business will continue to have a seasonality profile, which you can see in like one of our other sort of peers that has a more sort of northeastern exposure, but more muted than where we are today.

所以我想你會看到你所期待的。我們的加拿大固體廢棄物業務將繼續具有季節性特徵，您可以看到，就像我們其他類型的同行一樣，它們更多地接觸東北地區，但比我們今天的情況更加溫和。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

Hi, good morning everyonr and congratulations to Greg and Billy. I wanted to ask as a consequence of the divestiture, could you just talk about any benefits from a simplification standpoint to Luke, you just spoke about the working capital benefits. What about organizational structure, how much does simplify the process, create the ability to do more M&A without potentially ramping up overhead from here? Can you just address, is that an opportunity?

大家早安，恭喜格雷格和比利。我想問一下，作為剝離的結果，您能否從簡化的角度談談對盧克的任何好處，您剛剛談到了營運資金的好處。組織架構怎麼樣？ 流程在多大程度上簡化，能夠在不增加管理費用的情況下進行更多併購？能簡單說一下，這是一個機會嗎？

Well, Jerry, what I'd say is, I mean, we've contemplated divesting of ES sort of several times from a sort of disintegration perspective. I don't want to say it's stand-alone, but the thing is sort of autonomous isn't the right word, but not massively intertwined, and that's what's gives us the conviction with the speed with which we could do something.

好吧，傑裡，我想說的是，我的意思是，我們已經多次從瓦解的角度考慮剝離 ES。我不想說它是獨立的，但「自治」這個詞並不恰當，但它並不是大規模地交織在一起，這就是讓我們相信我們能夠以最快的速度做某事的原因。

And so why I highlight that is, look, obviously, not having that segment would simplify certain aspects, a couple less IT systems, a couple less particular administrative functions that serve to support ES. But I don't think you're going to have a step function change in our overarching overhead. Most of the ES specific overhead is actually already burdened in the ES segment.

所以我強調這一點的原因是，顯然，沒有該部分會簡化某些方面，減少一些 IT 系統，減少一些用於支援 ES 的特定管理功能。但我認為我們的總體開銷不會發生階躍函數變化。大多數 ES 特定開銷實際上已經在 ES 段中承受。

So if you think about my corporate cost bucket, we have like a $10 million to $15 million reduction that comes out of that when ES goes away as opposed to maybe a pro rata number that you might be thinking of. And again, that's because a lot of the specific overhead is already in ES.

因此，如果您考慮我的公司成本，當 ES 消失時，我們會減少 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元，而不是您可能想到的比例數字。再說一遍，這是因為許多特定開銷已經在 ES 中了。

But certainly, if you look today, we balance our sort of capital allocation amongst both of the segments. And with the capital allocation constraints, if you will, sometimes we're forward going. Opportunities and solid as we're sort of doing something in ES, and there's a sort of balancing coming through of that.

但當然，如果你今天看看，我們會平衡這兩個部門之間的資本配置。由於資本配置的限制，如果你願意的話，有時我們會繼續前進。當我們在 ES 中做一些事情時，機會和堅實的，並且透過它來實現某種平衡。

But if you think about that corporate bucket, as we start doing the M&A, you get the sort of leverage that's going to sort of come out of that. And you're going to see we don't need incremental overhead investment and so with what we have, I think we have the base that's in place. And if you roll forward the model over the next four or five years, you can see what today is a sort of low 3% number gravitating towards that 1.5% to 2% number. And I think we expect to get meaningful leverage out of that as we grow the business from here.

但如果你考慮公司的情況，當我們開始進行併購時，你就會得到某種槓桿作用。你會發現我們不需要增量管理投資，因此，憑藉我們所擁有的資源，我認為我們已經具備了基礎。如果你在接下來的四到五年內推進這個模型，你會發現今天的 3% 的低數字正在向 1.5% 到 2% 的數字傾斜。我認為，隨著我們從這裡發展業務，我們希望從中獲得有意義的影響力。

Got it. And shifting gears, your inflation was really impressive this quarter. Good pricing and inflation actually slowed last quarter. Can you just talk about what's driving that and sustainability based on what you're seeing into October?

知道了。換個角度來看，本季的通膨確實令人印象深刻。上季良好的定價和通膨實際上有所放緩。您能否根據您對 10 月的情況談談推動這一趨勢的因素以及永續性？

Yes. I mean, I think it's all of the things that we -- and to be honest, the industry have been talking about. When you think about turnover rates and Patrick spoke about this at our prepared remarks, while there's been a lot of focus on unit cost inflation, like the efficiency and productivity associated with that sort of reducing turnover is real and you're seeing that come through in your sort of cost inflation as well.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這就是我們——說實話，整個行業一直在談論的所有事情。當你想到流動率時，帕特里克在我們準備好的演講中談到了這一點，雖然單位成本通膨受到了很多關注，例如與這種減少流動率相關的效率和生產力是真實存在的，你會看到它的實現在你的成本通膨中也是如此。

R&M costs continue to moderate as anticipated, and we're getting the benefit of that. So, Jerry, I'd say it's not any one thing, but really a combination of all the things in conjunction with the pricing levels that we had a high degree of sort of visibility on. So it's -- this combination and the recurring nature of it that gives us such sort of conviction on our expectations as I sort of set out for 2025. Again, not a specific thing, but all of the things together.

R&M 成本繼續按預期下降，我們正在從中受益。所以，傑瑞，我想說這不是任何一件事，而是所有事情的結合，以及我們高度了解的定價水平。因此，正是這種結合及其反覆出現的性質，讓我們對我為 2025 年制定的期望充滿信心。再說一次，這不是一個具體的事情，而是所有事情的結合。

Great. And lastly, Luke, the RNG tailwind number that you pointed out, $25 million to $30 million. It feels like you're leaving a lot of room for RIN price volatility at $2 D3 RINs, I think the incremental earnings could be closer to $50 million from the $4 million MMBtu. Can you just expand on that? Is that just, hey, we just had a change in the White House, let's make sure we understand what's happening with D3 room prices and room to execute? Or are there any discrete contract structures that we should be aware of when we talk about just $25 million to $30 million you step up?

偉大的。最後，Luke，你指出的 RNG 順風數字是 2500 萬到 3000 萬美元。感覺就像您在 2 美元的 D3 RIN 上為 RIN 價格波動留下了很大的空間，我認為增量收入可能會從 400 萬美元的 MMBtu 接近 5000 萬美元。能擴展一下嗎？難道只是，嘿，我們剛剛在白宮發生了變化，讓我們確保我們了解 D3 房價和執行空間發生了什麼？或者，當我們談論您加薪的 2500 萬至 3000 萬美元時，是否有任何我們應該注意的離散合約結構？

Jerry, just to confirm, it's only -- it's $2 million incremental MMBtu, right? We got $2 million in hand. It's $2 million coming on. But even with that, you're right, there's some conservatism in there. One on the RIN pricing, but two more -- so just two of those facilities of the net new ones are coming online, in Q4 effectively. And there's a ramp-up until these facilities actually start contributing at sort of full run rate. So it's a volumetric conservatism, which I think is appropriate in conjunction with just some conservatism on RIN pricing.

Jerry，我想確認一下，這只是——增量 MMBtu 200 萬美元，對吧？我們手頭上有200萬美元。200萬美元即將到來。但即便如此，你是對的，其中仍然存在一些保守主義。其中一個是關於 RIN 定價的，但還有另外兩個 - 因此，實際上在第四季度，只有兩個新設施上線。在這些設施真正開始以全速運行之前，我們會不斷增加。所以這是一種體積保守主義，我認為這與 RIN 定價上的一些保守主義結合起來是合適的。

Devin Dodge, BMO Capital Market.

Devin Dodge，BMO 資本市場。

Nice margin expansion in the quarter. Just wondering, have you started to realize some benefit from the investment in camera technology for nonconforming pickup conditions or recycling contamination? And then could you just remind us how meaningful that opportunity could be for you over time?

本季利潤率擴張良好。只是想知道，您是否已經開始意識到，針對不合格的拾取條件或回收污染物而投資相機技術會帶來一些好處？那麼您能否提醒我們，隨著時間的推移，這個機會對您來說有多有意義？

Devin, it's Luke speaking. So the tablet initiative is sort of still in flight, piloting getting the things in the trucks is one thing, but then changing the sort of driver behavior and making sure we have the process in place to capture as another. So we're seeing, I'd say, the infant stages of this. And you can certainly see in the markets where it's being employed, the incremental dollars coming in. .

德文，我是盧克。因此，平板電腦計劃仍在進行中，試行將物品裝進卡車是一回事，但隨後改變駕駛員的行為並確保我們有適當的流程來捕獲是另一回事。所以我想說，我們看到的是這個的嬰兒階段。您當然可以在使用它的市場中看到增量資金的流入。。

I want to be clear, right now, it's really focusing on blocked bins and overloading, recycled contamination fees, which I think our peers in the industry have brought into would be a sort of Phase two for us. I mean right now, we think the low-hanging fruit on the overflowing and blocked bins represents a sort of meaningful opportunity. Exactly what that is.

我想澄清的是，現在，它真正關注的是堵塞的垃圾箱和超載、回收污染費，我認為我們業內的同行已經將其納入了我們的第二階段。我的意思是，現在，我們認為溢出和堵塞的垃圾箱上唾手可得的果實代表了一種有意義的機會。正是那是什麼。

We have $1.5 billion to $2 billion of commercial revenue. When you think about what the incremental sort of surcharge could be coming out of that, even a sort of small percentage is a very attractive number. What we're endeavoring to do, having is to use the pilot together some Intel such an Investor Day, we can provide an actual sort of quantification. But suffice to say, we think there's real dollars there, all of which had dropped to the bottom line and just bring us to par with where our peers already are today.

我們有 15 億至 20 億美元的商業收入。當您考慮由此產生的增量附加費時，即使是很小的百分比也是一個非常有吸引力的數字。我們正在努力做的就是在投資者日等英特爾公司進行試點，我們可以提供實際的量化結果。但我只想說，我們認為那裡有真正的美元，所有這些都已降至底線，只是讓我們與同行今天的水平持平。

Yes. And on the resi side, obviously, particularly on the back of EPR in Canada, we're developing also camera system with AI technology to determine contamination rates, et cetera, that give us the ability to charge back based on those. And that's all in flight. I don't think that's a 2025 possibility, but I think as we move into 2026 and 2027 and beyond, the technology is getting very good, and we're piloting a bunch of different initiatives today that we think, again, will just be more value accretive as we move into '26 and '27.

是的。顯然，在 Resi 方面，特別是在加拿大的 EPR 方面，我們正在開發具有人工智慧技術的攝影機系統，以確定污染率等，這使我們能夠根據這些數據進行收費。而這一切都在飛行中。我認為2025 年不可能出現這種情況，但我認為，隨著我們進入2026 年、2027 年及以後，科技會變得非常好，我們今天正在試點一系列不同的舉措，我們再次認為，這些舉措將是當我們進入'26和'27時，會產生更多的價值增值。

Okay. Good color there. And then second question, just based on the EPR contract cutters that you've seen so far, the current RNG project development pipeline, what should we be expecting in terms of sustainability-related spending in '25? Then is there much carryover into 2026?

好的。那裡的顏色很好。然後是第二個問題，僅根據您迄今為止看到的 EPR 合約削減者，當前的 RNG 項目開發管道，我們在 25 年的可持續發展相關支出方面應該期待什麼？那麼到2026年還有很多結轉嗎？

Yes. So Devin, Luke speaking, I think '25 on the incremental growth spend probably looks something similar to '24. Again, you got to figure out which -- from the contracts when actually truck deliveries are going to be happening on some of the pieces. So we need a little bit more time to get that iron note before we speak to you in Feb '25. But I would think directionally in line with what 2024 was is probably the right way of thinking about EPR and R&G for '25, '26?

是的。所以德文，盧克說，我認為 25 年增量成長支出可能看起來與 24 年類似。再說一次，你必須從合約中弄清楚其中一些部件實際上是由卡車交付的。因此，在 25 年 2 月與您交談之前，我們需要更多時間來敲定鐵律。但我認為與 2024 年的方向一致可能是思考 25 年、26 年 EPR 和 R&G 的正確方式？

Unknown because there's still a bunch of -- there's still much of collection contracts that are sort of influx. So I think that's still a bit of a moving target, but.

未知，因為仍然有大量的收集合約湧入。所以我認為這仍然是一個移動目標，但是。

We'll have more color.

我們會有更多的顏色。

More color -- we will have more -- we'll definitely have more color by our Investor Day to give basically an 18-month to 24-month outlook, and we'll sort of have the EPR sort of what we believe the revenue and EBITDA contribution to be from EPR at the Investor Day. But '26 on the face of it today will definitely be lower than '25.

更多的色彩——我們將會有更多的——我們肯定會在投資者日之前有更多的色彩，基本上給出18 個月到24 個月的展望，我們將獲得與我們認為的收入類似的EPR EBITDA 將在投資者日由 EPR 貢獻。但今天從表面上看，'26 肯定會低於 '25。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank Bank.

科納克·古普塔，豐業銀行。

Thanks for -- And then Patrick, I appreciate you addressing the recent incidents here. Just back to the ES sales process. I hear you guys several potential bids are coming in. So I just want to understand, like, what would narrow down to the final winner considering all the kind of different sets of bits you're receiving, you talked about tax implications, but are there any other considerations in selecting the final winner. And is there also a possibility of a call or put option there?

謝謝——然後帕特里克，我很感謝你在這裡解決最近發生的事件。回到ES銷售流程。我聽說你們有幾個潛在的出價。所以我只是想了解，例如，考慮到您收到的各種不同的數據集，什麼會縮小最終獲勝者的範圍，您談到了稅收影響，但是在選擇最終獲勝者時是否還有其他考慮因素。還有看漲期權或看跌期權的可能性嗎？

Yes. So I think where we sort of sit today, we went out to sort of 40 interested parties really at NDAs out to almost 30 different parties, which then translated into 10 to 11 different proposals. All sort of varying degrees and that sort of a mix of strategic and financial sponsors. And obviously, we have to manage this process now. So we -- I think -- from our perspective, what we're doing is we're going to narrow the field down to four, which we did yesterday.

是的。因此，我認為我們今天的立場是，我們與 40 個感興趣的各方進行了 NDA 談判，並與近 30 個不同的各方進行了交流，然後將其轉化為 10 到 11 項不同的提案。各種不同程度的策略和財務贊助商的組合。顯然，我們現在必須管理這個過程。因此，我認為，從我們的角度來看，我們正在做的是將範圍縮小到四個，就像我們昨天所做的那樣。

And these are four people that I have met with personally, have relationships with, have a high degree of conviction of closing and doing exactly what they say they're going to do. So we're going to basically run those four to the end. What is important to us. Price is important to us, structure is important to us, timeliness to close is obviously very important to us.

這四個人是我親自見過的、有關係的、有高度信念的人，他們會照著他們所說的去做。所以我們基本上要把這四個運行到最後。什麼對我們來說很重要。價格對我們很重要，結構對我們很重要，成交的及時性顯然對我們非常重要。

And depending on the structure and the tax structuring, just given the increase in the enterprise value of what we initially thought, structuring is very relevant to us today because as the enterprise value goes up, so does the tax go.

根據結構和稅收結構，考慮到我們最初認為的企業價值的增加，結構與我們今天非常相關，因為隨著企業價值的上升，稅收也會增加。

And those just -- the tax to goes up exponentially based on sort of increased value. So I think what was out on the street before historically was that it was a $6.5 billion to $7 billion EV. I think comfortably, you're materially higher than that, and you can definitely move that number up $500 million to $1 billion from where we were.

這些只是——稅收根據價值的增加而呈指數級增長。所以我認為，歷史上市場上銷售的電動車價值為 65 億至 70 億美元。我認為，你的水平遠高於這個數字，而且你絕對可以將這個數字從我們原來的水平增加 5 億美元到 10 億美元。

So structure is going to be important to us. So we will arrive there. It's going to play out over the next while. I think where we sit now, if we do our job, we're going to push, and we're going to try and get something done. Obviously, as Luke said, the outside date is having something done by the time we report.

因此，結構對我們來說很重要。所以我們會到達那裡。它將在接下來的一段時間內發揮作用。我認為我們現在所處的位置，如果我們做好我們的工作，我們就會推動並努力完成一些事情。顯然，正如盧克所說，在我們報告時，外部日期已經完成了一些事情。

But ideally, we'd like to get something done in January and have this closed sometime in Q1 if we could. Now that would be sort of a boom sky scenario. But from our perspective, we think it's doable, and we're going to push to make that happen.

但理想情況下，我們希望在一月份完成一些工作，並在可能的情況下在第一季的某個時間結束。現在這將是一種繁榮的天空場景。但從我們的角度來看，我們認為這是可行的，我們將努力實現這一目標。

Okay. That's a great pillar. And if I can follow up just on the housekeeping. On solid base side, if I heard correctly, you guys are expecting volumes turning the corner in Q4. Can you suggest what are some of the puts and takes driving that volume rebound in Q4, please?

好的。這是一個偉大的支柱。如果我能跟進客房服務的話。在堅實的基礎方面，如果我沒聽錯的話，你們預計第四季銷量會出現好轉。您能否建議一下推動第四季度成交量反彈的一些看跌期權和看跌期權？

Yes. Konark, it's Luke. You got to remember, the volume that we're seeing this year is really a function of the shedding activities that in large part took place last year. So if you think about the Q3, 90 basis point sequential improvement over Q2, if -- when we're looking at Q4, I think you're going to have 150 basis point -- 170 basis point improvement over Q3.

是的。科納克，我是路克。你必須記住，我們今年看到的數量實際上是去年發生的大部分脫落活動的結果。因此，如果你考慮第三季度，比第二季度連續改善 90 個基點，如果 - 當我們考慮第四季度時，我認為你將比第三季度改善 150 個基點 - 170 個基點。

And that's less about believing what's going to happen in the market, and that's just more the math versus anniversarying what happened last year, right, because last year, Q4 was the minus 3.6%, which was just the sort of culmination of that sort of anniversary.

這並不是說相信市場會發生什麼，而是更多地計算與紀念去年發生的事情，對吧，因為去年第四季度的增長率為-3.6%，這只是這種情況的頂峰。 。

So I'd say everything is working according to plan. Certainly, you're seeing some volume softness in some of the markets as it relates to special waste, and I don't think we're unique in seeing that across the sort of footprint. I believe that is just sort of timing in '25 and beyond as things start back up, you'll see that coming back.

所以我想說一切都按計劃進行。當然，您會看到某些市場的銷量出現一些疲軟，因為這與特殊廢物有關，而且我認為我們在整個足跡中看到這種情況並不是唯一的。我相信這只是 25 年及以後隨著事情開始恢復的時機，你會看到這種情況回來。

But the underlying fundamentals across our sort of collection and post-collection businesses are strong, and you're seeing that playing out and consistent beating of our volume, yes, the numbers are negative. But again, a function of anniversarying last year's intentional shedding.

但我們的催收和催收後業務的基本面很強勁，你會看到我們的交易量持續成長，是的，數字是負數。但這又是為了紀念去年的故意脫落。

And then we're feeling really strong that this turns positive in Q4. The 2025 outlook again, we're going to hold off on that. But it's certainly not going to be the same sort of negative cadence that I had this year. We're feeling sort of confident that will be something significantly better than what we had this year.

然後我們感覺非常強烈，這種情況在第四季度變得積極。再次展望 2025 年，我們將延後。但這肯定不會像我今年那樣出現負面節奏。我們有信心這會比今年好得多。

James Schumm, TD Cowen.

詹姆斯·舒姆，TD·考恩。

So I was curious, are you willing to sell the used motor oil business separately? And what would be the likelihood of that?

所以我很好奇，你們願意把廢機油業務單獨販售嗎？發生這種情況的可能性有多大？

No. I don't think it makes any sense. I think it's a very small part of the ES business. And I think from a customer overlap perspective, we provide multiple service to those customers, and I don't see any path to why we do that. And given the market structure where we operate those human businesses, it's a very good business, and we're very easily able to manage spread in that business.

不。我認為這沒有任何意義。我認為這只是 ES 業務的一小部分。我認為從客戶重疊的角度來看，我們為這些客戶提供多種服務，但我看不出我們這樣做的任何原因。考慮到我們經營這些人力業務的市場結構，這是一項非常好的業務，我們很容易能夠管理該業務的傳播。

And as you saw in Q3, even with the moves in Motiva and demand for base oils, we're able to maintain spreads for the most part, the headline revenue was off a little bit, but by and large we'll maintain that spread. And it's been that way since we own that business back -- since we started it in 2008.

正如您在第三季所看到的，即使Motiva 的變動和基礎油的需求，我們仍能在很大程度上維持利差，總體收入略有下降，但總的來說，我們將維持這一利差。自從我們在 2008 年重新擁有這項業務以來，情況一直如此。

Yes, James, I think it's important to delineate that our business is different than some of the other peers, very little sort of on the re-refining and the back end. We are a collector service provider. And as Patrick said, it's managing a spread. And yes, revenue can move in this quarter $5 million, $6 million in Q4 is expecting the same at the top line, but you're able to preserve the vast majority of those or the EBITDA dollars. When the prices move really quickly, you get an EBITDA impact as you saw in Q3, but by and large, you preserve that. So just collection-based milk-run-type businesses that we've had for a long time, and we're a big fan of, and as Patrick said, works very well within our broader gas business.

是的，詹姆斯，我認為重要的是要說明我們的業務與其他一些同行不同，在再精煉和後端方面幾乎沒有什麼不同。我們是收藏服務提供者。正如帕特里克所說，它正在管理價差。是的，本季的營收可能會增加 500 萬美元，預計第四季的營收將達到 600 萬美元，但你可以保留其中的絕大多數或 EBITDA 美元。當價格變動非常快時，你會得到 EBITDA 的影響，就像你在第三季看到的那樣，但總的來說，你會保留這種影響。因此，我們已經擁有很長一段時間的基於收集的牛奶運行類型的業務，我們是它的忠實粉絲，正如帕特里克所說，它在我們更廣泛的天然氣業務中運作良好。

Okay. Great. And then for Q4, you mentioned the potential for severe disruptions related to storms, but is it possible that you'll actually get a storm benefit from the prior hurricanes. Just any color you can provide there would be helpful.

好的。偉大的。然後，在第四季度，您提到了與風暴相關的嚴重破壞的可能性，但您是否有可能實際上從先前的颶風中獲得風暴收益。您可以提供的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. I think I was going to say, I think they had the potential to be severe disruptions. I think at the end of the day, the management view weathered the storm, and we're not expecting any severe disruptions. And yes, I mean, in theory, there should be the potential for some tailwinds of incremental volumes in the southeast around the area was where we have operations where the hurricane went through.

是的。我想我想說的是，我認為它們有可能造成嚴重的破壞。我認為最終，管理層的觀點經受住了風暴，我們預計不會有任何嚴重的干擾。是的，我的意思是，從理論上講，我們在颶風經歷過的地區的東南部地區應該有可能增加銷售量。

Yes, James, I think we had some light softness in special waste like some of our peers. And I think now, as Patrick said, absolutely, you'll probably get some benefit from some storm waste, and that should sort of offset that special waste. But yes, that was -- Patrick was highlighting the excellent work of our team to avoid disruption.

是的，詹姆斯，我認為我們像我們的一些同行一樣，在特殊廢物方面有一些輕微的柔軟性。我認為現在，正如帕特里克所說，絕對，你可能會從一些風暴廢物中獲得一些好處，這應該會抵消那種特殊的廢物。但是，是的，帕特里克強調了我們團隊為避免中斷所做的出色工作。

Stephanie Yee, JPMorgan.

史蒂芬妮·葉，摩根大通。

Hi, Good morning. When you say that you're -- when you say that you're going to use part of the proceeds from the ES sales to buy back stock, do you mean from your largest shareholders? And do you have certain targets in mind?

嗨，早安。當你說你將使用 ES 銷售的部分收益來回購股票時，你的意思是來自你最大的股東嗎？您心中有明確的目標嗎？

Mechanism to BD and -- that is an ongoing discussion, obviously. But I think as the process continues to evolve, we'll have a clear answer on that in time. But I think from our perspective, we have to figure that out, and we will over the next little while.

BD 的機制——顯然，這是一個持續的討論。但我認為隨著流程的不斷發展，我們會及時得到明確的答案。但我認為從我們的角度來看，我們必須弄清楚這一點，我們將在接下來的一段時間內解決這個問題。

Okay. Understood. And just on M&A as you're thinking about M&A into next year, have you seen any changes in the valuation levels given just people's interest rate expectations.

好的。明白了。就併購而言，當您考慮明年的併購時，考慮到人們的利率預期，您是否看到估值水平有任何變化。

Yes, remember, a big part of the arena we play in is in the -- we all referenced multiples, et cetera. But at the end of the day, a lot of these companies we are buying where we've sort of decided to play has been sort of in the $1 million to $10 million of EBITDA range. The lion's share of those business owners only really know what multiples are. Generally, a lot of them don't have financing anyway. So they're not overly concerned about being levered to interest rates, et cetera.

是的，請記住，我們所玩的競技場的很大一部分是——我們都引用了倍數，等等。但歸根結底，我們決定購買的許多公司的 EBITDA 都在 100 萬美元到 1000 萬美元之間。這些企業主中的大部分人只真正知道倍數是什麼。一般來說，他們中的許多人無論如何都沒有融資。因此，他們並不過度擔心利率槓桿等問題。

So we haven't seen any real material movement. But at the end of the day, those acquisitions to us, again, have been sort of in the same ZIP code, and we believe that we're going to be able to execute on a very robust pipeline as we move into 2025 as we bring in the proceeds from ES. And I think those acquisitions will become highly accretive, get tucked into existing regions where we already own assets and specifically have underutilized post-collection assets. So we're expecting 2025 to be a great year from that front.

所以我們還沒有看到任何真正的物質運動。但歸根結底，我們的這些收購同樣是在相同的郵遞區號中進行的，我們相信，隨著我們進入 2025 年，我們將能夠在非常強大的管道上執行帶來ES的收益。我認為這些收購將變得高度增值，並融入我們已經擁有資產的現有區域，特別是未充分利用的收集後資產。因此，我們預計 2025 年將是這方面偉大的一年。

Brian Butler, Stifel.

布萊恩巴特勒，斯蒂菲爾。

Good morning, thanks for taking my question. Go start with maybe on the commodity prices, it was a little bit of a headwind. Can you talk about maybe where commodity prices have averaged year-to-date and where they are right now? And what kind of sensitivity that looks like maybe in third quarter or going into 2025?

早安，感謝您提出我的問題。首先可能是大宗商品價格，有點逆風。您能談談今年迄今為止大宗商品價格的平均價格以及目前的價格嗎？第三季或進入 2025 年可能會有什麼樣的敏感度？

Brian, thanks for the question. When we gave the guide for Q3 coming out of Q2, commodity about CAD 225, right, in the basket, and that's what we're expecting. I think what you saw in Q3 is that it was down more like $210, $215, right? So you gave up that sort of $10, $15 at the revenue line as a result of that change. Post Q3, as continued to have downward pressure, concerns over the sort of northeastern oversupply with the port strike I think you're seeing that in Canadian dollars south of $200 today. It's maybe more $180, $190 level. I do think folks believe that this is going to come back. But if you align today's pricing up with the average you realized in 2024, 2025 would be a slight headwind, right?

布萊恩，謝謝你的提問。當我們給出第二季第三季的指南時，籃子裡的商品大約是 225 加元，這就是我們所期望的。我認為您在第三季度看到的是下跌了 210 美元、215 美元，對嗎？因此，由於這項變化，你放棄了 10 美元、15 美元的收入。第三季後，由於持續面臨下行壓力，以及對東北部供應過剩和港口罷工的擔憂，我認為您今天會看到加幣在 200 美元以下。可能是 180 美元、190 美元的水平。我確實認為人們相信這種情況會捲土重來。但如果你將今天的定價與 2024 年的平均價格保持一致，那麼 2025 年將是一個輕微的阻力，對嗎？

So you'd have a little bit of pressure from that pricing and that would have a little bit of margin impact as well, modest dollars, I think it's more than $5 million to $10 million headwind at the revenue line, a little bit of margin on that.

因此，定價會帶來一點壓力，也會對利潤率產生一點影響，適度的美元，我認為收入線的逆風超過 500 萬美元到 1000 萬美元，一點點利潤關於這一點。

And then -- but the offset is diesel pricing today continues to sort of be at a low when compared to prior year, the 2024 average. And so that would be a slightly sort of margin tailwind into 2025. So I think of commodities, I think of all those sort of exogenous price inputs. Those two are probably a bit of a wash if we were to stay at today's levels and any upside on commodity pricing today's levels within the incremental upside to the guide.

然後 - 但抵消的是，與去年（2024 年平均水平）相比，今天的柴油價格仍然處於較低水平。因此，這將是 2025 年利潤率的輕微順風。所以我想到了商品，我想到了所有這些外生價格輸入。如果我們要保持在今天的水平，並且大宗商品定價在今天的水平上有任何上行空間，那麼這兩個因素可能會有點令人沮喪。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess on the industrial revenue bonds that you guys did, how big or how large of a part can that become of the GFL's kind of dead stack? And how long does that take? And is that savings 100 basis points the right place to kind of model it? Or is there may be some additional savings in that?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我猜想，在你們所做的工業收入債券上，這會成為 GFL 那種死堆的多大或多大的一部分？這需要多長時間？節省 100 個基點是否適合這種模型？或者這可能會帶來一些額外的節省嗎？

Look, I mean, the 100 basis points savings is a function of where our current debt is and where the current sort of debt markets are, right? I think -- but the idea we were showing we're now accessing instruments previously, say, for higher credit quality than we historically were. So we're going to continue to look at it. And it is a very coupon-efficient sort of structure, which is I think why all of our peers use it. The counter to that is it's typically not the largest sort of component in your cap structure, and that's just because the regulations and requirements for it is you're really tying into specific CapEx in specific states.

我的意思是，100 個基點的節省是我們當前債務狀況以及當前債務市場狀況的函數，對吧？我認為，但我們所展示的想法是，我們現在正在使用以前的工具，以獲得比歷史上更高的信用品質。所以我們將繼續關注它。這是一種非常節省優惠券的結構，我認為這就是我們所有同行都使用它的原因。與此相反的是，它通常不是上限結構中最大的組成部分，這只是因為它的法規和要求是您真正與特定州的特定資本支出掛鉤。

Now landfill spend is typically a great capital deployment where these are used. And we do spend hundreds of millions of dollars a year in the landfill CapEx. So we're going to be actively looking at it. But when you look at our peers, we assume that, that's what normal course looks like in the future. I think it's more like 10% to 20% of your cap stack as opposed to 50% plus.

現在，垃圾掩埋場支出通常是一個很好的資本部署。我們每年確實在垃圾掩埋場資本支出上花費數億美元。因此，我們將積極研究它。但當你看看我們的同行時，我們會認為，這就是未來的正常情況。我認為這更像是你的上限的 10% 到 20%，而不是 50% 以上。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾，杰弗里斯。

This is [Harold Lotto] on for Stephanie. I guess labor inflation has been around 4% to 5%. We've been here for some of the competitors. I guess, are you seeing -- is it the same for what you're seeing? And then if you could just provide a little bit more clarity on what you're assuming the labor front and in terms of turnover and stuff, if you can provide details that would be very helpful.

這是史蒂芬妮的[哈羅德·洛托]。我估計勞動力通膨率約為 4% 至 5%。我們來這裡是為了一些競爭對手。我想，你看到的──和你看到的一樣嗎？然後，如果您能更清楚地說明您對勞動力方面以及營業額和其他方面的假設，如果您能提供詳細信息，那將非常有幫助。

Yes. Thanks for the question, [Harold]. I mean the labor dynamics is something near and dear to us that we're watching closely, and I think continues to sort of track favorably I think that 4% to 5% labor inflation number is probably the right overall as you think about the industry. I do think, as we've said, we have benefited from our secondary market focus, whereby we've seen lower wage pressures in the secondary markets than what we see in the dense urban areas. And I think that allows us to blend to something a little bit better than peers. And so we're probably at that sort of low 4s level, and we do credit the secondary market focus to that.

是的。謝謝你的提問，[哈羅德]。我的意思是，勞動力動態對我們來說是密切關注的，我們正在密切關注，而且我認為繼續朝著有利的方向發展。數字可能是正確的。我確實認為，正如我們所說，我們受益於我們對二級市場的關注，因此我們發現二級市場的工資壓力低於密集城市地區的工資壓力。我認為這使我們能夠比同行更好地融入一些東西。所以我們可能處於那種低 4S 水平，我們確實將二級市場的關注歸功於這一點。

On the turnover, look, we're extremely happy with the direction of travel and the turnover. I remember we were as high as in the 30s, came down to high 20s, was down in mid-20s and now we're touching 20% on the voluntary turnover level. So the trend line is moving in the right direction, and you're seeing that come through in the sort of productivity and as a result of the financial performance. So we're going to continue to be actively engaged in managing that. And I think the macro backdrop is supportive and we look forward to sort of continue sort of benefits that we'll see as we return back to that sort of, I think, the mid-teens level, mid- to high teens where we're going, and we think you'll continue to see the financial benefit come through in our results and in our safety stats.

就營業額而言，我們對行進方向和營業額都非常滿意。我記得我們的最高水準是 30 多歲，後來下降到 20 多歲，再下降到 20 多歲，現在我們的自願流動率達到了 20%。因此，趨勢線正在朝著正確的方向移動，您會看到這在生產力和財務績效方面得到了體現。因此，我們將繼續積極參與管理。我認為宏觀背景是支持性的，我們期待著當我們回到那種我認為中青少年水平、中青少年水平時我們會看到的持續的好處。和安全統計數據中看到經濟效益。

Tobey Sommer, Truist on the line.

托比·索默 (Tobey Sommer)，真理主義者在線。

Post divestiture, do you intend to change or see opportunities may be informed by your M&A pipeline to change the mix between the US and Canada in any appreciable way?

剝離後，您是否打算改變或看到您的併購管道可能會帶來機會，以任何明顯的方式改變美國和加拿大之間的組合？

No, I don't think so. I think from -- again, where we say it again, we operate 10 provinces today, 25 states in the US I think largely what you'll see is just continued buying businesses and densifying those existing markets where we operate typically around markets where, again, we have capacity in post-collection facilities, and we think that's where we're going to get the highest returns on invested capital.

不，我不這麼認為。我認為，我們今天再說一遍，我們今天在美國經營 10 個省、25 個州，我認為您將看到的主要內容是繼續收購企業並密集化我們通常在市場周圍運營的現有市場，再次強調，我們擁有收後設施的能力，我們認為這將是我們獲得最高投資回報的地方。

I do think the opportunity, obviously, in the US continues to be larger just from a market size and scale perspective. But I don't think you'll see us change the strategy that we've had over the last sort of 17 years. I think it'll just be largely the same, but obviously, more getting done in the US, just given the size of the market that we operate there.

我確實認為，顯然，從市場規模和規模的角度來看，美國的機會仍然更大。但我認為你不會看到我們改變過去 17 年的策略。我認為這將在很大程度上是相同的，但顯然，考慮到我們在美國運營的市場規模，在美國要做的事情會更多。

Makes sense. And I know it's fresh sort of hot off the presses, but does the change in administration in the US impact your thinking potentially on M&A, potentially taxes? Like what does that mean for the company, do you think?

有道理。我知道這是新鮮事，但美國政府的變化是否會影響您對併購和稅收的潛在思考？您認為這對公司意味著什麼？

I don't think it means much as we've been able both as a company and as an industry to basically weather any sort of level of government. I mean when we started the business, you had the Obama administration. And then that sort of moved to Trump and then that's moved now at the Biden and now back to Trump. I think the one benefit that I think we're all looking for as an industry, which could be material is whether the Republicans bring back in bonus appreciation.

我認為這沒有多大意義，因為我們作為一家公司和一個行業基本上能夠經受住任何級別的政府的考驗。我的意思是，當我們開始創業時，你有一個歐巴馬政府。然後這種情況又轉移到了川普身上，然後又轉移到了拜登身上，現在又回到了川普身上。我認為，作為一個行業，我們都在尋找的一個可能很重要的好處是，共和黨是否會帶來獎金升值。

You know that some of that legislation has been tabled now for a while sort of sitting there as bonus depreciation is rolled off. Will that sort of come back on? I think the thought is that -- or at least the hope is that it will come back given that was something initially supported by the Democrats and not particularly with the Republicans having the House and the Senate that, that's something that will probably happen. But outside of that, I don't think there'll be much change from us in terms of how we operate or where we operate or what we do in the US

你知道，隨著紅利折舊的減少，其中一些立法已經被擱置了一段時間。這樣的事還會回來嗎？我認為這種想法是——或者至少希望它會回來，因為這是民主黨最初支持的事情，而不是特別是共和黨擁有眾議院和參議院，這可能會發生。但除此之外，我認為我們的營運方式、營運地點或在美國的業務不會有太大變化

Buddy Wiseman-Barker, National Bank of Canada.

巴迪·懷斯曼-巴克，加拿大國家銀行。

Just filling in for Rupert here. So just back on the Environmental Services segment, thinking about the tax. I think last quarter, you said $500 million to $600 million range was a good way to think about it. Is it fair to expect that it's higher now with more visibility on a higher price as you've gotten throughout the process or maybe closer to the top end of that range?

只是在這裡代替魯伯特。回到環境服務領域，考慮一下稅。我認為上個季度，您說過 5 億至 6 億美元的範圍是一個很好的思考方式。隨著您在整個過程中獲得的更高價格的可見性，或者可能更接近該範圍的上限，期望現在更高，是否公平？

Yes. I think that's a challenge. Now we're getting into the weeds. We're getting into the specifics. And again, as the enterprise value moves up, so the taxes. So we're looking at the most -- the most effective way to structure it that maximizes long-term shareholder value, while addressing the issues that we want to address both as we talked about general quarter purposes, and to share buybacks and then the $3.5 billion of debt repayment. So we don't have those exact specifics today. We are confident in the $6 billion net cash number. So stay tuned in terms of what that ultimately looks like as we move through the process.

是的。我認為這是一個挑戰。現在我們正陷入困境。我們正在討論具體細節。同樣，隨著企業價值的上升，稅收也會上升。因此，我們正在尋找最有效的方式來建立它，以最大化長期股東價值，同時解決我們在討論一般季度目的時想要解決的問題，以及股票回購，然後償還35億美元的債務。所以我們今天還沒有這些確切的細節。我們對 60 億美元的淨現金數字充滿信心。因此，當我們完成整個過程時，請繼續專注於最終的結果。

But yes, ultimately, that number that was cited last was tied to a much lower EV than what Patrick speaking here today. And just very simply, as the EV goes up, that number goes up. And so I think that would be considered sale and it's a bigger number because the EV is bigger, and that's where all the comments, Patrick said, is what we're contemplating.

但是，是的，最終，最後引用的這個數字與比帕特里克今天在這裡所說的低得多的電動車相關。非常簡單，隨著電動車的增加，這個數字也會增加。因此，我認為這將被視為銷售，而且這是一個更大的數字，因為電動車更大，帕特里克說，這就是我們正在考慮的所有評論。

Okay. And you talked a bit about the corporate overhead impact there. But how does the maintenance CapEx for the Environmental Services compared to the solid race segment?

好的。您談到了那裡的公司管理費用影響。但是，與固體競賽部分相比，環境服務的維護資本支出如何？

It's a lower capital intensity. So you will see on a blended basis in theory, that increases the intensity. But if you look at GFL as a whole we've been running in the sort of 100 basis points lower than our peers when you exclude the growth spend. And that's really been a function of having the sort of ES business there. I think without it, what you see is gravitation towards the industry mean and that sort of 10.5%, 11.5% depending on where you are in the growth cycle. But normal course capital intensity for our solid waste business as we go forward.

這是較低的資本密集度。所以你會在理論上看到，在混合的基礎上，強度會增加。但如果你把 GFL 作為一個整體來看，當你排除成長支出時，我們的運行速度比同行低 100 個基點。這確實是那裡擁有 ES 業務的功能。我認為如果沒有它，你所看到的就是對產業的吸引力，即 10.5%、11.5%，這取決於你處於成長週期的哪個階段。但隨著我們的發展，我們的固體廢棄物業務的資本強度是正常的。

That does conclude the Q&A session, and I'd like to hand it back to Patrick Dovigi for some final comments.

問答環節到此結束，我想將其交還給帕特里克·多維吉（Patrick Dovigi）以徵求一些最後的評論。

Thank you, everyone, for attending the call, and we're looking forward to catching back up with you and we have some updates both on ES and certainly with our Q4 results as we move into next year. So thanks for attending and thank you for the support.

感謝大家參加這次電話會議，我們期待與您聯繫，我們將在進入明年時提供有關 ES 的一些更新，當然還有我們第四季度的業績。感謝您的出席並感謝您的支持。

Thank you all for joining the GFL third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Today's call has now concluded. Please enjoy the rest of your day, and you may now disconnect from the call.

感謝大家參加 GFL 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議現已結束。請享受您今天剩下的時間，您現在可以掛斷電話了。