GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning all, and thank you all for attending the GFL second-quarter 2024 full earnings call. My name is Breeka, and I will be your moderator today. (Operator instructions)

大家早安，感謝大家參加 GFL 2024 年第二季完整財報電話會議。我叫 Breeka，今天我將擔任你們的主持人。（操作員說明）

I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Patrick Dovigi, Founder and CEO at GFL Environmental. Thank you. You may proceed, Patrick.

現在我想將會議轉交給東道主帕特里克·多維吉 (Patrick Dovigi)，他是 GFL Environmental 的創始人兼首席執行官。謝謝。你可以繼續了，派崔克。

Thank you and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to today's call and thank you for joining us. This morning, we will be reviewing our results for the second quarter and updating our guidance for the year. I'm joined this morning by Luke Pelosi, our CFO, who will take us through our forward-looking disclaimer before we get into the details.

謝謝你，早安。我歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議，並感謝您加入我們。今天早上，我們將審查第二季的業績並更新今年的指導。今天早上，我們的財務長 Luke Pelosi 與我一起，在我們討論細節之前，他將向我們介紹我們的前瞻性免責聲明。

Thank you, Patrick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. We have filed our earnings press release, which includes important information. The press release is available on our website. During this call, we'll be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and US securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate may occur in the future.

謝謝你，派崔克。大家早安，感謝您的加入。我們已經提交了收益新聞稿，其中包含重要資訊。新聞稿可在我們的網站上取得。在本次電話會議中，我們將做出一些適用加拿大和美國證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明，包括有關我們認為或預期未來可能發生的事件或發展的聲明。

These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set out in the filings with the Canadian and US securities regulators. Any forward-looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements.

這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，包括向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件中列出的風險和不確定性。任何前瞻性陳述都不是對未來績效的保證，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

These forward-looking statements speak only as of today's date, and we do not assume any obligation to update these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events and developments or otherwise. This call will include a discussion of certain non-IFRS measures. A reconciliation of these non-IFRS measures can be found in our filings with the Canadian and US securities regulators.

這些前瞻性陳述僅代表今天的情況，我們不承擔任何更新這些陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件和發展或其他原因。本次電話會議將討論某些非國際財務報告準則措施。這些非國際財務報告準則措施的調節可以在我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件中找到。

I'll now turn the call back over to Patrick.

我現在將把電話轉回給帕特里克。

Thank you, Luke. Our second quarter financial results continue to prove the highly predictable and recurring nature of our business model. These results are better than we expected and reflect the underlying quality of our asset base and the effectiveness of the value creation strategies that we have put in place over the last few years.

謝謝你，盧克。我們第二季的財務業績繼續證明了我們業務模式的高度可預測性和重複性。這些結果好於我們的預期，反映了我們資產基礎的基本品質以及我們過去幾年實施的價值創造策略的有效性。

Most importantly, these results demonstrate the drive of our employees to deliver consistent, high-quality results quarter-over-quarter and to make our business better every day. I want to thank each and every one of them for their dedication to team green. Both solid waste pricing and volume came in better than expected for the quarter and continue to trend above our initial plan.

最重要的是，這些結果表明我們的員工有動力逐季度交付一致、高品質的結果，並使我們的業務每天都變得更好。我要感謝他們每一個人對團隊綠色的奉獻。本季固體廢棄物價格和數量均優於預期，並繼續高於我們最初的計劃。

Operating cost inflation is sequentially moderating mainly around labor rates and repair and maintenance expenses. The accretive benefits of shedding low quality revenue and exiting non-core service offerings are also evident in our margins. Luke will walk through more of the details for the quarter that confirm the ongoing operational excellence of the business that we have built.

營運成本通膨持續放緩，主要圍繞勞動價格以及維修和保養費用。擺脫低品質收入和退出非核心服務產品的增值效益在我們的​​利潤率中也很明顯。盧克將詳細介紹本季的更多細節，以確認我們所建立的業務的持續卓越營運。

Consistent with our previous guidance, we deployed $89 million into incremental growth investments primarily related to recycling and RNG infrastructure that we expect will generate significant ROIC for years to come. We remain on track to deploy a total of $250 to $300 million into those investments during 2024 as previously guided.

與我們先前的指導一致，我們部署了 8,900 萬美元用於主要與回收和 RNG 基礎設施相關的增量成長投資，我們預計這些投資將在未來幾年產生可觀的投資回報率。我們仍將按照先前的指導，在 2024 年期間向這些投資投入總計 250 至 3 億美元的資金。

In the quarter, we also accelerated our exit from a portfolio of residential collection contracts in Michigan that no longer met our return thresholds. The sale of this book of business occurred at the end of the second quarter and will be accretive to our margins in the second half. We've seen continued success with the development of our book of business related to EPR in the Canadian markets.

本季度，我們也加速退出密西根州不再符合回報門檻的住宅收集合約組合。該業務簿的出售發生在第二季末，將增加我們下半年的利潤。我們在加拿大市場上與 EPR 相關的業務手冊的開發不斷取得成功。

New contract awards in Ontario and Quebec have added to the $80 to $100 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA we previously identified related to EPR, and we now expect to generate approximately $130 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA from the contracts awarded to us to date. To reiterate what I said last quarter, the contribution from these contracts is expected to start late in 2024, slowly ramp through 2025 and achieve our expected full contribution in fiscal 2026.

安大略省和魁北克省的新合約授予增加了我們先前確定的與EPR 相關的80 至1 億美元的增量調整後EBITDA，我們現在預計從迄今為止授予我們的合約中產生約1.3 億美元的增量調整後EBITDA。重申我上季度所說的，這些合約的貢獻預計將於 2024 年末開始，到 2025 年緩慢增加，並在 2026 財年實現我們預期的全額貢獻。

The contribution of this work is expected to be highly accretive to the margin profile of our Canadian solid waste segment and to our consolidated margins. We also remain optimistic about opportunities for further upside as EPR programs are rolled out in Quebec, Western Canada and the Maritimes. On RNG, we continue to expect that two or three more facilities will come online by the end of the year, and we remain confident that we will realize $175 million of adjusted EBITDA previously disclosed once our portfolio of landfill gas energy facility is fully operational in the coming years.

這項工作的貢獻預計將大大提高我們加拿大固體廢棄物部門的利潤狀況和我們的綜合利潤。隨著魁北克省、加拿大西部和濱海省推出 EPR 計劃，我們也對進一步上漲的機會保持樂觀。在 RNG 方面，我們仍然預計到今年年底將有另外兩到三個設施上線，我們仍然有信心，一旦我們的垃圾掩埋氣能源設施組合在未來幾年。

In the first half of the year, we deployed approximately $500 million of M&A, all of which was completed when we provided our first quarter results in May. We remain absolutely committed to our cap for the aggregate 2024 growth investments of $900 million and the net leverage target that we set out late last year.

上半年，我們部署了約 5 億美元的併購，所有這些都在我們 5 月提供第一季業績時完成。我們仍然絕對致力於實現 2024 年成長投資總額 9 億美元的上限以及我們去年年底設定的淨槓桿目標。

While we continue to have a robust pipeline of attractive M&A opportunities in our markets at this stage, there will be likely only small transactions in the second half, with the majority of the current pipeline to be executed in 2025 and beyond. The quality of our first half results with the continued strength of our business model supports an increase in our guidance for the second time this year.

雖然現階段我們的市場仍然擁有大量有吸引力的併購機會，但下半年可能只會發生小額交易，目前的大部分交易將在 2025 年及以後執行。我們上半年業績的品質以及我們業務模式的持續強勁支持我們今年第二次提高指導值。

We are increasing adjusted EBITDA to $2.24 to $2.25 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin to 28.4%, a 70 basis point increase over our original guidance and a 170 basis point increase over the prior year. Luke will walk through the guidance in more detail, but to be able to raise the guide two consecutive quarters and to have line of sight to 170 basis points of annual margin expansion certainly has us feeling very optimistic about the effectiveness of our value-creation strategies.

我們將調整後 EBITDA 提高至 2.24 至 22.5 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率提高至 28.4%，比我們最初的指導增加 70 個基點，比前一年增加 170 個基點。盧克將更詳細地介紹該指導意見，但能夠連續兩個季度提高指導意見，並將年度利潤率擴張至 170 個基點，這無疑讓我們對價值創造策略的有效性感到非常樂觀。

I will now turn it over to Luke.

我現在把它交給盧克。

Thanks, Patrick. Revenue for the quarter of $2.06 billion was 11.1% higher than the prior year, excluding the impact of the solid waste divestitures. Solid waste pricing of 6.5% and minus 1.7% volume were both ahead of plan and the continued strength in recycled commodity prices also contributed to the year-over-year increase.

謝謝，派崔克。剔除固體廢棄物剝離的影響，該季度營收為 20.6 億美元，比上年同期成長 11.1%。固體廢棄物定價6.5%和負1.7%的數量均提前於計劃，回收商品價格的持續走強也促成了同比增長。

Our Environmental Services segment, price-led growth strategy advanced and was further supported by increased oil volumes and used motor oil pricing. Large scale event driven response work around major spills and fires, the timing of which can be more variable was lower compared to the prior year.

我們的環境服務部門以價格為主導的成長策略取得進展，並得到石油產量增加和廢機油定價的進一步支持。圍繞重大洩漏和火災的大規模事件驅動的響應工作，其時間可能更加可變，與前一年相比有所減少。

Adjusted EBITDA margins were 28.7% for the quarter, 90 basis points ahead of the prior year and 20 basis points ahead of our guidance. Underlying solid waste margin expansion of 100 basis points reflected the positive impact of price cost spread, higher commodity prices plus M&A that came in in accretive EBITDA margins, offset by the dilutive margin impact of the increased cost of risk as well as the absence of one-time benefits related to the prior year divestitures and insurance proceeds received in Q2 2023.

本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 28.7%，比去年同期高 90 個基點，比我們的指引高 20 個基點。基礎固體廢棄物利潤率擴大了100 個基點，反映出價格成本價差、大宗商品價格上漲以及併購帶來的EBITDA 利潤增加的正面影響，但被風險成本增加以及缺乏一項風險成本帶來的攤薄利潤影響所抵銷。

Consistent with the first quarter, elevated price-cost spread, the positive margin impact of our deliberate volume strategies, RNG and favorable commodity price contribution as well as incremental operating leverage are all contributing to margin expansion ahead of expectations.

與第一季一致，價格成本差額擴大、我們精心設計的銷售策略對利潤率的正面影響、RNG 和有利的商品價格貢獻以及增量營運槓桿都有助於利潤率擴張超出預期。

Environmental Services adjusted EBITDA margins were 29.6% in line with expectations and inclusive of nearly 100 basis point cost of risk headwind indicative of the success of our price-led growth strategy. Adjusted free cash flow was $185 million in the quarter, $177 million greater than the prior year period and approximately $20 million better than guidance. The contributions to the outperformance came from CapEx, working capital and other operating items, which are all expected to be timing differences that will normalize by the end of the year.

環境服務調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 29.6%，符合預期，並包含近 100 個基點的風險逆風成本，顯示我們以價格為主導的成長策略取得了成功。本季調整後自由現金流為 1.85 億美元，比去年同期增加 1.77 億美元，比指導值高出約 2,000 萬美元。業績優異的貢獻來自資本支出、營運資本和其他營運項目，預計這些時間差異將在年底前正常化。

Net leverage at the end of the quarter was 4.29%, ahead of expectations and consistent with the quarterly cadence on which our year-end net leverage target was base. During the quarter, we were successful in refinancing one of our 2025 bonds with a new bond maturing in 2032. After the end of the quarter, we also successfully refinanced our Term Loan B in a transaction that both reduced the borrowing spread by 50 basis points and extended its maturity to 2031.

本季末的淨槓桿率為 4.29%，超出預期，並且與我們年終淨槓桿目標所依據的季度節奏一致。在本季度，我們成功地用 2032 年到期的新債券對 2025 年發行的債券進行了再融資。本季末後，我們也成功為定期貸款 B 進行了再融資，這不僅將借貸利差降低了 50 個基點，還將期限延長至 2031 年。

We have one additional bond that becomes callable at par in the third quarter of this year. The debt markets remain highly constructive, and we expect to opportunistically refinance this bond when a market window presents itself. After we complete that expected refinancing, over 90% of our nonrevolving long-term debt will have a maturity date of 2028 and beyond.

我們還有另一隻債券將於今年第三季以面額贖回。債務市場仍然具有高度建設性，我們預期當市場窗口出現時，我們將機會主義地為該債券進行再融資。在我們完成預期的再融資後，我們 90% 以上的非循環長期債務的到期日將是 2028 年及以後。

As Patrick said, the success of our first half results sets us up to increased guidance for the second time this year. Revenue is now expected to be approximately $7.9 to $7.925 billion driven by solid waste pricing of 6.25% to 6.5% and solid waste volumes of negative 1.25%. Incremental revenue from in year M&A is more than offset by the Q2 asset sale, which is now expected to reduce our original expectations for second half revenue by just over $110 million on account of seasonality.

正如帕特里克所說，我們上半年業績的成功使我們今年第二次增加了指導。由於固體廢棄物定價為 6.25% 至 6.5%，固體廢棄物量為負 1.25%，目前預計收入約為 7.9 至 79.25 億美元。今年併購帶來的增量收入被第二季資產出售所抵消，由於季節性原因，目前預計這將使我們對下半年收入的最初預期減少略高於 1.1 億美元。

Additionally, in light of the lower volume of large event-driven work in our ES segment in the first half of the year, we are taking a more conservative view for the back half of the year and the new guidance assumes this trend continues. If large-scale event-driven work picks up in the back half, it should be upside to the guide. The contribution from any additional M&A completed in the back half of the year will also provide upside to the guide.

此外，鑑於上半年我們 ES 領域的大型事件驅動工作量較低，我們對下半年的看法更加保守，而新的指導意見假設這一趨勢將持續下去。如果大型事件驅動的工作在後半段開始進行，那麼指南應該會上漲。下半年完成的任何額外併購的貢獻也將為該指南提供上行空間。

Adjusted EBITDA guidance increases to $2.24 to $2.25 billion, a $30 million increase over our original guide, a result of the described changes in revenue together with ongoing expansion of adjusted EBITDA margin, which as Patrick said, it increases to 28.4%. Adjusted free cash flow increases to $810 million, a $10 million increase driven by the incremental adjusted EBITDA and partially offset by $25 million of incremental interest costs, which are now expected to be $500 million for the year.

調整後的EBITDA 指導增至2.24 至22.5 億美元，比我們原來的指導增加了3000 萬美元，這是由於所述收入變化以及調整後EBITDA 利潤率的不斷擴大（正如帕特里克所說，調整後的EBITDA利潤率增至28.4%）的結果。調整後的自由現金流增加至8.1 億美元，其中1,000 萬美元的增長是由增量調整後EBITDA 推動的，並被2,500 萬美元的增量利息成本部分抵消，目前預計今年的利息成本為5 億美元。

So in summary, revenue increases pro forma for the divestitures, adjusted EBITDA increases again, adjusted EBITDA margin expanded an additional 70 basis points on top of the original 100 basis points guide and adjusted free cash flow increases as well. As it relates to the third quarter, we expect consolidated revenue of approximately $2.055 to $2.06 billion, with a similar split between solid and ES revenues as what we saw in the second quarter.

總而言之，資產剝離的預期收入增加，調整後的 EBITDA 再次增加，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在原來 100 個基點的基礎上額外擴大了 70 個基點，調整後的自由現金流也增加了。就第三季而言，我們預計綜合收入約為 2.055 至 20.6 億美元，固體收入和 ES 收入之間的比例與我們在第二季度看到的類似。

Keep in mind that the Michigan residential contract sale results in a sequential revenue step down from the second quarter. In terms of margin, we expect consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.25% over 200 basis points higher than the prior year and the first time in our history, achieving a consolidated margin of over 30%.

請記住，密西根州的住宅合約銷售導致收入比第二季度連續下降。在利潤率方面，我們預期綜合調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 30.25%，比上年高出 200 個基點，這也是我們歷史上首次實現綜合利潤率超過 30%。

The guide then contemplates margin stepping down in the fourth quarter as per the typical seasonal cadence of the business. Those revenue and margin expectations equate to approximately $625 million of adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter. Additionally, we expect $230 million of net capital expenditures, a $165 million of cash interest and close to a nil impact from the recovery of working capital offsetting other operating items.

然後，該指南考慮根據業務的典型季節性節奏在第四季度降低利潤率。這些營收和利潤率預期相當於第三季調整後 EBITDA 約 6.25 億美元。此外，我們預期淨資本支出為 2.3 億美元，現金利息為 1.65 億美元，營運資本回收抵銷其他營運項目的影響幾乎為零。

For our Q3 adjusted free cash flow of approximately $225 million. In terms of net leverage, we expect a reduction of approximately 15 basis points throughout the quarter to end the quarter just above 4.1 times and then a larger reduction in the fourth quarter to end the year within the previously stated range of 3.65 to 3.85. Adjusted net income is expected to be $125 million for the third quarter.

第三季調整後自由現金流約 2.25 億美元。就淨槓桿率而言，我們預計整個季度將減少約15 個基點，季末槓桿率將略高於4.1 倍，然後第四季將進一步大幅下降，年底將在先前規定的3.65 至3.85 倍範圍內。第三季調整後淨利預計為 1.25 億美元。

I will now pass the call back over to Patrick, who will provide some closing comments before Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉回給帕特里克，他將在問答之前提供一些結束語。

Before we open it up for Q&A, although we don't generally comment on market speculation, I want to address some of the headlines that you have all seen lately. We believe that the business today is significantly undervalued when you consider the quality of our assets, the capabilities and track record of our team, the near term growth prospects, especially around EPR and RNG and the deleveraging trajectory we currently own.

在我們開始問答之前，雖然我們通常不會對市場猜測發表評論，但我想談談你們最近看到的一些頭條新聞。我們認為，當你考慮到我們的資產品質、我們團隊的能力和業績記錄、近期成長前景（尤其是圍繞 EPR 和 RNG 以及我們目前擁有的去槓桿化軌跡）時，我們的業務被嚴重低估。

In my view, the current valuation does not make sense. With the current disconnected valuation, we are buyers of GFL, not sellers. Based on the noncore asset sales we completed last year at mid teens multiples, and the recapitalization we completed in 2014 and 2018 has a private company at 13 to 14 times EBITDA.

在我看來，目前的估值沒有意義。在目前估值不連貫的情況下，我們是 GFL 的買家，而不是賣家。根據我們去年完成的非核心資產銷售的本益比，以及我們在 2014 年和 2018 年完成的資本重組，私人公司的 EBITDA 達到了 13 至 14 倍。

We have demonstrated that GFL's assets are worth more than was reflected in our current stock price. And since then, publicly traded waste multiples have continued to expand. So while selling the entire business is not on the table today. There could be merit in selling a portion of our business and valuations that are more in line with what we believe is fair value of the business.

我們已經證明 GFL 的資產價值高於我們目前股價所反映的價值。從那時起，公開交易的廢棄物倍數持續擴大。因此，出售整個業務目前還沒有提上日程。出售我們的部分業務和更符合我們認為的業務公允價值的估值可能是有價值的。

A sale of high-quality assets such as our ES segment could easily attract mid teens multiples. We have had significant inbound interest from both strategic and financial sponsors that support this valuation perspective, such a sale could serve the dual purpose of accelerating our deleveraging and most importantly, allowing us the opportunity to buy back a significant amount of stock at an attractive valuation.

出售我們的 ES 部門等優質資產很容易就能吸引到十幾倍的本益比。我們對支持這一估值觀點的策略和財務贊助商都表現出了濃厚的興趣，這樣的出售可以達到加速我們去槓桿化的雙重目的，最重要的是，讓我們有機會以有吸引力的估價值回購大量股票。

To make a decision around such a significant sale would require a full auction process to ensure we are maximizing shareholder value and achieving the best use of proceeds. We are absolutely exploring all of our options and have begun to implement the steps necessary to prepare for potential transaction.

要圍繞如此重大的出售做出決定，需要完整的拍賣流程，以確保我們最大化股東價值並實現收益的最佳利用。我們絕對正在探索所有選擇，並已開始實施必要的步驟，為潛在交易做好準備。

Since we went public, I believe that we have clearly demonstrated that we are dynamic, roll up our sleeves management team, that can and will implement the appropriate strategies to ensure that we are maximizing long-term value creation for all of our shareholders. We have no intention of deviating from that strategy with the opportunities we now have in front of us.

自從我們上市以來，我相信我們已經清楚地表明我們的管理團隊充滿活力，捲起袖子，能夠而且將會實施適當的策略，以確保我們為所有股東創造最大的長期價值。面對現在擺在我們面前的機遇，我們無意偏離這項戰略。

I will now turn the call over to the operator to open up the line for Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉給接線員，以開通問答線。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Saba Khan, RBC.

薩巴汗，加拿大皇家銀行。

Great. Thanks, and good morning. Maybe if we could just start with those closing comments. So, maybe give you an opportunity, maybe share a little bit more color on, maybe the type of interest you've seen, the type of investors or the type of parties that are looking at it.

偉大的。謝謝，早安。也許我們可以從這些結束語開始。所以，也許給你一個機會，也許分享更多的色彩，也許你所看到的興趣類型，投資者類型或正在關注它的各方類型。

Do you have like a lower bound on the multiple you're willing to sell, time lines? And just sort of your decision making process? Anything, any additional color you can share on, what the market should expect over the next little while and how you're maybe arriving at that decision? Thank you.

您願意出售的倍數有下限嗎？以及您的決策過程？您可以分享的任何內容、任何其他顏色、市場在接下來的一段時間內應該期待什麼以及您如何做出這個決定？謝謝。

Yes, I think Saba, from my perspective, again, we've spent 17 years building this business, right? So again, it's sort of near and dear to our heart. It's been, it was a core portion of the strategy historically. And again, as that sort of came to light over the last little while. And again, as I said from my perspective, there is a very sort of large valuation gap today.

是的，我認為薩巴，從我的角度來看，我們花了 17 年的時間來建立這項業務，對吧？再說一次，它對我們來說是很親近的。從歷史上看，它一直是該策略的核心部分。再次，正如在過去一段時間裡這種情況被曝光的那樣。再次，正如我從我的角度所說的，今天存在著很大的估值差距。

And it's not necessarily to the peers, but it's also just in general in terms of what, I would say, private investors are prepared to pay for these assets and the IRR that they can drive at each and every one of them. So where I sit today, obviously, I think as we started engaging in this process, there was multiple different avenues available to us on the table, and it was sort of narrow down very specifically.

這不一定是針對同行，但我想說的是，一般來說，私人投資者準備為這些資產支付費用，以及他們可以為每項資產驅動的內部收益率。因此，顯然，我今天坐的地方，我認為當我們開始參與這個過程時，我們可以選擇多種不同的途徑，而且範圍非常具體。

And I think to get alignment from board and specific sort of large shareholders. It was a process that we sort of had to go through. I think given the amount of inbound interest that we've seen from investors as well as strategic, I think where we landed is that we need to run an auction to sell this, and we've been taking steps over the last couple of months to prepare for that.

我認為要與董事會和特定類型的大股東保持一致。這是我們必須經歷的過程。我認為考慮到我們從投資者那裡看到的大量入境興趣以及策略，我認為我們的目標是我們需要進行拍賣來出售它，並且我們在過去幾個月中一直在採取措施為此做好準備。

And I think what you'll see is a process launched after Labor Day sometime over the month of September to determine what the actual true value of the businesses. I have no reason to believe that the business today is it worth significantly higher than what GFL is sort of trading at today?

我認為您將看到一個在勞動節後的九月某個時間啟動的流程，以確定企業的實際價值。我沒有理由相信今天的業務價值明顯高於 GFL 今天的交易價格嗎？

I think if you look in the market, if you look at recent trades of Covanta, Circon, if you look at Heritage Environmental, that was recently sold to EQT. If you look at US Ecology that was sold to Republic, the recent Stericycle trade with Waste Management, I mean, I think you can see that all of these traded in that range.

我想如果你看看市場，如果你看看卡萬塔、Circon 的最近交易，如果你看看 Heritage Environmental，它們最近被賣給了 EQT。如果你看看賣給Republic的US Ecology，以及最近與Waste Management的Stericycle交易，我的意思是，我想你可以看到所有這些交易都在這個範圍內。

And I think when you run a model and you run a private equity model on this business, I mean, I don't care what model you run, it's a very sort of simple growth algorithm, right? You have top line growth of sort of high single digits, bottom line that flow down EBITDA at sort of just low double digits, put on sort of 5, 5.5 turns of leverage, modelling a bit of M&A.

我認為，當你運行一個模型並在該業務上運行私募股權模型時，我的意思是，我不在乎你運行什麼模型，這是一個非常簡單的成長演算法，對嗎？你的營收成長達到了較高的個位數，淨利潤以較低的兩位數下降到 EBITDA，槓桿率達到了 5、5.5 倍，模擬了一些併購。

I mean, in a base case, you get to a sort of a 15% IRR and an upside case you can underwrite 23% to 25%. And I mean, again, I go back to, this is what GFL did and recapped for a number of years. Go back to our 2014 recap. HPS, when they recap that business, our business, they paid 14 times for that in 2014. And they left with an equity return of 3.6 times their money in four years.

我的意思是，在基本情況下，您可以獲得 15% 的 IRR，而在上行情況下，您可以承保 23% 至 25%。我的意思是，我再說一遍，這就是 GFL 多年來所做和回顧的事情。回到我們的 2014 年回顧。HPS，當他們回顧我們的業務時，他們在 2014 年為此支付了 14 倍的費用。四年後，他們離開時的股本回報率是其資金的 3.6 倍。

If you look at BC Partners, they came in place post a 14 times for the business in 2018. But for their equities mark today, there are already 3times their equity and massive sort of runway in front of us. So there's no reason to believe that again, a private equity investor wouldn't view this the same way. And with our discussions that we've had with them, we can definitely stand behind those models.

如果你看看 BC Partners，你會發現他們在 2018 年為該業務發布了 14 次。但就他們今天的股價而言，他們的股本已經是他們的三倍，而且我們面前還有巨大的跑道。因此，沒有理由再次相信，私募股權投資者不會以同樣的方式看待這個問題。透過與他們的討論，我們絕對可以支持這些模型。

But again, there was significantly more interest than I thought from more parties. And I think that's the only way for sort of us to maximize value. But most importantly, if you look at RemainCo and yes, we can look at GFL trading around 12, 12.5 times in 2024. But the reality is, let's now look at '24. We need to look at '25 and '26.

但同樣，更多各方的興趣比我想像的要大得多。我認為這是我們實現價值最大化的唯一方法。但最重要的是，如果你看看 RemainCo，是的，我們可以看到 2024 年 GFL 的交易量約為 12、12.5 倍。但現實是，現在讓我們來看看'24。我們需要看看'25和'26。

And you can take conservative views on what '25 and '26 are. We've given you the breadcrumbs about RNG and PRR are. As you sort of roll out to '26, and we have our existing shareholders. This is solely a trade for me as the largest shareholder, if I can sell something in mid teens and buy back a significant amount of our stock, and I can end up owning 12.5% or 15% more of the company at these values and taking out a lion's share of the overhang that exists from some of our PE partners and not having to come back to the market and sort of buy death by 1,000 cuts to them selling every six months, that absorbs all of that.

您可以對“25”和“26”持保守看法。我們已經為您提供了有關 RNG 和 PRR 的詳細資訊。當你推出到 26 年時，我們就有了現有的股東。這只是我作為最大股東的交易，如果我能在十幾歲左右賣掉一些東西併回購大量股票，我最終可以以這些價值擁有該公司 12.5% 或 15% 的股份，並獲得消除我們的一些私募股權合作夥伴存在的大部分積壓，而不必回到市場並透過每六個月出售1,000 份的削減來購買死亡，這就吸收了所有這些。

So that's how I thought about it to get to shareholders on side, took time, but I think we made a decision as a Board, and that's what we're going to do. Both shareholders are onside with that process. And, I think now there's no, there will be limited overhang left in the market. If you want to own GFL stock, you're not going to wait for secondary because there isn't going to be one because we're going to own the stock and we're going to own 50% more of it, and that's simply how I sort of thought about it.

所以我就是這麼想的，為了讓股東站在一邊，需要時間，但我認為我們作為董事會做出了決定，這就是我們要做的。兩位股東都支持這個過程。而且，我認為現在市場上的過剩產能將是有限的。如果你想擁有 GFL 股票，你不會等待二級股票，因為不會有二級股票，因為我們將擁有該股票，而我們將擁有 50% 以上的股票，這只是我的想法。

And then the secondary aspect of it is leverage will be reduced. You'll have a war chest of capital to go out and do the things you want to do in your sort of core service offerings. And there will be no impediment to doing the things that we want to do in the markets we want to do while growing a solid waste business. I think it's a win-win.

其次是槓桿率會降低。您將擁有大量資金，可以在自己的核心服務產品中做您想做的事情。在發展固體廢棄物業務的同時，在我們想做的市場上做我們想做的事情不會受到任何阻礙。我認為這是雙贏的。

Okay. Appreciate that color. Maybe just shifting over to the guidance. Maybe a question for Luke. There's a few moving pieces in the updated guidance. I think you called out the Environmental Services, think solid waste doing a little bit better at some FX benefit. If you can maybe just parse out the puts and takes in the '24 guidance update, please?

好的。欣賞那個顏色。也許只是轉向指導。也許有個問題想問盧克。更新後的指南中有一些令人感動的內容。我認為您呼籲環境服務部門，認為固體廢棄物在某些外匯收益方面做得更好一些。如果您可以解析 '24 指導更新中的 put 和 take ，好嗎？

Yes, good morning, Saba. Great question. It was the one thing that maybe contemplate we should provide a deck, but we think once you hear the details will be sort of straightforward enough. But at a high level, the EBITDA line are starting 22%, 15% guidance number. If I think about that, I think about exogenous factors of FX and commodities, that's giving me a little bit greater than plus 30 to the good.

是的，早上好，薩巴。很好的問題。這是我們可能考慮提供一套牌的一件事，但我們認為一旦您聽到細節就會足夠簡單。但在較高水準上，EBITDA 線起始值為 22%，指導數字為 15%。如果我考慮一下這一點，我會考慮外匯和大宗商品的外生因素，這會為我帶來比+ 30 更大的好處。

And then you have this ER volume, right? The large-scale event driven stuff, the new guide assumes about $100 million less of that. So the margin on that effectively offsets the benefit you're getting from FX and commodity, right?

然後你就有了這個 ER 卷，對嗎？對於大型活動驅動的內容，新指南假設減少了約 1 億美元。因此，保證金有效地抵消了您從外匯和大宗商品中獲得的收益，對吧？

So then we think about M&A and right, we did early in the year, we did those couple of deals and we have the positive contribution of that offset by the Michigan portfolio sale and the net of those two is roughly about $15 million to the good.

然後我們考慮併購，是的，我們在今年早些時候做了這幾筆交易，我們的積極貢獻被密西根投資組合出售所抵消，這兩筆交易的淨額約為 1500 萬美元左右。

And so if you think about those as the broad based sort of external factors, it leaves you with about sort of 15 to 20 of just pure underlying guidance range. And it's really coming out of, as you said, solid waste and solid waste margin as we're seeing the effectiveness of our strategies just come through even greater than anticipated.

因此，如果您將這些視為基礎廣泛的外部因素，那麼您就會留下大約 15 到 20 個純粹的潛在指導範圍。正如您所說，它確實來自固體廢物和固體廢物利潤率，因為我們看到我們的策略的有效性甚至比預期的還要好。

Correct. Thanks very much. I'll pass it on.

正確的。非常感謝。我會把它傳遞下去。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮·摩爾，杰弗里斯。

Yes, hi, good morning. Thank you. Let me first touch on the 2024 guidance. Good morning. Maybe first starting on the 2024 guidance, your updated guidance has margins expanding 170 basis points year-over- year at this, appears to me the highest margin expansion amongst your peers for the year.

是的，嗨，早安。謝謝。首先讓我談談 2024 年指引。早安.也許首先從 2024 年的指導開始，你們更新後的指導的利潤率同比增長了 170 個基點，在我看來，這似乎是你們今年同行中最高的利潤率擴張。

Can you comment on what's driving this? How much do you attribute to just the quality of your asset base for self-help initiatives? And then can you update us just on what inning you are in on your self-help initiatives? Thanks.

您能評論一下是什麼推動了這一趨勢嗎？對於自助計劃，您在多大程度上歸因於您的資產基礎品質？那麼您能否向我們介紹一下您的自助舉措目前處於哪一階段？謝謝。

Yes, good morning, Stephanie, it's Luke. We're certainly impressed with the headline number of 170 as well. But I think the starting point is exactly what you said. It's the quality of the assets and the market selection in which we've gone on. We've always said that we have, I think, a best-in-class asset portfolio in the right markets and that's what's allowing us to now sort of execute on our strategies.

是的，早上好，史蒂芬妮，我是盧克。我們當然也對 170 的標題數字印象深刻。但我認為出發點正是你所說的。這是我們一直以來的資產品質和市場選擇。我認為，我們一直說，我們在合適的市場擁有一流的資產組合，這使我們現在能夠執行我們的策略。

And so you think about the price cost spread that we talked of at the beginning of the year and the ability of that to sort of come in better than anticipated. If you think about the synergy realization of all the pieces that we've put together historically and starting to get the benefit of that, you think about the self-help levers that were sort of pulling on. And all of these are sort of coming to fruition and you're seeing the benefit come through in the margins and so it's not any specific one thing.

因此，您可以考慮我們在年初討論的價格成本價差，以及其比預期更好的能力。如果您考慮我們歷史上整合的所有部分的協同實現並開始從中受益，您會想到有點拉動的自助槓桿。所有這些都正在實現，你會看到利潤在邊緣顯現，所以這不是任何具體的一件事。

Yes, commodities give a little bit of an incremental impact and certainly our intentional shedding and those deliberate volume strategies are helping in the Michigan sale sort of accelerate that even more. But for actual quantify, you think the base guide of 100 basis points, if you recall, that was effectively all organic, right?

是的，大宗商品帶來了一點增量影響，當然，我們有意的減產和那些深思熟慮的銷售策略正在幫助密西根州的銷售進一步加速這一影響。但對於實際量化，你認為 100 個基點的基本指導，如果你還記得的話，那其實都是有機的，對嗎？

Because the M&A was actually a net drag going into the year. So now with that, we have new M&A this year and improved commodity pricing, that's adding roughly 35 basis points of incremental. So the 70 basis point raise, half is coming from those two pieces. And then the other half is just the ongoing success of our strategies, both on the volume and just the underlying margin.

因為併購其實是今年的淨拖累。因此，現在我們今年進行了新的併購併改善了大宗商品定價，這增加了約 35 個基點的增量。因此，70 個基點的上漲，一半來自這兩部分。另一半就是我們策略的持續成功，無論是在數量上或基本利潤上。

And so I think it's a great testament to all of the things we've been saying for the past couple of years as we bring these pieces together and what the opportunities in front of us and the most exciting part is we really think this is just getting started.

因此，我認為這很好地證明了我們在過去幾年中一直在說的所有事情，當我們將這些片段整合在一起時，以及我們面前的機會和最令人興奮的部分是，我們真的認為這只是入門。

Great. Thanks, I appreciate it. Patrick, if you noted in the release and in your prepared remarks today that you believe the sale of certain other high-quality assets would be on the table. You obviously called out environmental services. But given the way it's worded, could we assume that there are other assets that could also possibly be for sale?

偉大的。謝謝，我很感激。派崔克，如果您在今天的新聞稿和準備好的發言中指出，您認為出售某些其他優質資產將會擺在桌面上。你顯然呼籲環境服務部門。但鑑於其措辭方式，我們是否可以假設還有其他資產也可能出售？

No. (multiple speakers) Thank you.

不。（多名發言者）謝謝。

Kevin Chiang, CIBC.

凱文·蔣，CIBC。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Maybe just look at your solid waste performance. I guess I've noticed a bit of a divergence, almost a divergence, it's more the Canadian solid waste organic growth has been tracking at a decent positive spread versus the US organic growth. I am just wondering if there's anything to call out there that you're seeing in Canada versus the US?

嘿，大家早安。也許只需看看您的固體廢棄物表現即可。我想我注意到了一點分歧，幾乎是分歧，更多的是加拿大固體廢物有機增長與美國有機增長相比一直保持著相當大的正向差距。我只是想知道加拿大與美國相比是否有什麼值得指出的地方？

So I'm not sure it's just the timing of how some of the M&A comes through and it rolls through after year one? Or if there is something specifically happening in the Canadian landscape versus the US landscape?

所以我不確定這只是一些併購的時間安排以及第一年後的實施？或者加拿大景觀與美國景觀相比是否發生了特別的事情？

Yes, good morning, Kevin, it's a great question. If you think about solid waste organic growth being price and volume, recall, our Canadian business was sort of behind the eight ball on pricing, if you will, when we really sort of embarked on price discovery, call it sort of five, six years ago.

是的，早上好，凱文，這是一個很好的問題。如果你認為固體廢物的有機增長是價格和數量，回想一下，我們的加拿大業務在定價方面落後於八球，如果你願意的話，當我們真正開始進行價格發現時，可以稱之為五年、六年前。

And so I think that upside that we've always articulated as to catching up with industry norms in terms of pricing, a lot of that existed in the Canadian book and you're seeing that sort of come through.

因此，我認為我們一直在闡述在定價方面趕上行業規範的好處，其中許多內容都存在於加拿大書中，並且您正在看到這種情況的實現。

I think additionally, we're starting to see some of the benefits of these investments we've made in the recycling EPR and other initiatives in the Canadian landscape, which are helping support sort of overall volumes there. And then the offsite set is while the US pricing discipline has been sort of more mature, certainly have more runway there, but it wasn't as much steep of a ramp as we saw in Canada.

我認為此外，我們開始看到我們在回收 EPR 和加拿大環境中的其他舉措方面進行的這些投資的一些好處，這有助於支持那裡的總體數量。然後，場外設置是，雖然美國的定價規則已經更加成熟，當然那裡有更多的跑道，但它並不像我們在加拿大看到的那樣陡峭。

Some of our intentional shedding has been more focused in the US market where we've done a larger quantity of M&A and therefore inherited larger volumes of books of business that no longer meeting our return thresholds. So I think it's a combination of those two things.

我們的一些有意剝離更多地集中在美國市場，在那裡我們進行了更多的併購，因此繼承了更多不再滿足我們的回報門檻的業務。所以我認為這是這兩件事的結合。

Certainly, we're seeing very robust organic growth across both the segments. But you're absolutely right. When you sort of pick it apart, you do see a bit of that sort of divergence. But as we go forward, we're feeling highly confident in the organic growth prospects on both price and volume in both of those segments.

當然，我們看到這兩個領域都出現了非常強勁的有機成長。但你是絕對正確的。當你把它分開時，你確實會看到一些這種分歧。但隨著我們的前進，我們對這兩個領域的價格和銷量的有機成長前景充滿信心。

No, that makes a ton of sense, and I appreciate the color there. I'm sure there'll be a ton of questions through this call on potentially divesting of ES. Maybe I'll just ask one on, it is a portfolio of assets you have within ES.

不，這很有道理，我很欣賞那裡的顏色。我確信，在這次電話會議中，人們會提出很多關於可能剝離 ES 的問題。也許我會問一個，這是你在 ES 中擁有的資產組合。

I guess when you think of potentially divesting of this, do you think of divesting all of it? Or is divesting parts of it also part of the, I guess, the review you're going through today?

我想當你考慮可能剝離這一點時，你會考慮剝離全部嗎？或者，我想，剝離其中的一部分也是您今天要進行的審查的一部分嗎？

No, beyond block. (multiple speakers) You would be selling the entire portfolio. I mean the one piece that's in there in the soil remediation piece, so I would say that the one piece that could potentially not go with it. If we wanted to keep that just given the exposure to the GTA and sort of GIP, but everything, it's a small piece of environmental services.

不，超越街區。（多名發言者）您將出售整個投資組合。我的意思是土壤修復部分中的那一件，所以我想說的是，那一件可能不會搭配。如果我們想保留這一點，只是考慮到 GTA 和某種 GIP，但一切，它只是環境服務的一小部分。

But for the most part, it would be on block, both Canada and the US. Obviously, as you know, almost 80% of the revenue for me ES comes into Canada, 20% under the US. So yes.

但在大多數情況下，無論是加拿大還是美國，它都會被阻止。顯然，如您所知，ES 的收入幾乎 80% 來自加拿大，20% 來自美國。所以是的。

Yes, that makes sense. That makes it. That's it for me. Thank you for taking my questions.

是的，這是有道理的。這樣就可以了。對我來說就是這樣。感謝您回答我的問題。

Thanks, Kevin.

謝謝，凱文。

Devin Dodge, BMO Capital.

德文·道奇，BMO 資本。

Yes, thanks for taking the questions here. I just wanted to come back to the 2024 margin guidance. Look, the pace of increase really steps up in the second half compared to the first half. I know the sale of the operation in Michigan is part of it. But can you help us better understand that sequential improvement?

是的，感謝您在這裡提出問題。我只想回到 2024 年的利潤指引。看起來，下半年的成長速度確實比上半年加快了。我知道出售密西根州的業務是其中的一部分。但你能幫助我們更好地理解這種連續的改進嗎？

Yes, Devin, it's Luke speaking. And again, I think it sort of goes back to my sort of prior comments that Stephanie of the overarching margin and it's sort of all of these things coming together, right? So you continue to have price cost spread similar to what we've seen all throughout the year.

是的，德文，我是路克。再說一遍，我認為這有點回到了我之前的評論，史蒂芬妮的整體利潤率和所有這些事情結合在一起，對嗎？因此，價格成本的差距仍然與我們全年所看到的相似。

The cost of risk headwind, that's been a big drag all year. It's moderating as we get into the second half and the benefits of intentional shedding and other deliberate volume strategies are improving as we sort of go forward. And you're going to have the M&A contribution as well. So it's not any sort of one thing. I mean, the guide does contemplate solid waste margins expanding.

風險逆風的成本全年都是一個很大的拖累。隨著我們進入下半年，這種情況正在放緩，隨著我們的前進，有意減少和其他有意的交易量策略的好處正在改善。您還將獲得併購貢獻。所以這不是一件事。我的意思是，該指南確實考慮了擴大固體廢物利潤。

I think it's roughly 200 basis points over the prior year in terms of Q3. And if you break that apart, the Michigan sale would give you a sort of 80 to 90 basis points of that and commodities give you sort of 70 basis points of that. Cost of risk is going to be again, not as impactful as the first half, but call that another 30 to 40 basis point headwind against you.

我認為第三季比去年同期高約 200 個基點。如果你把它分開，密西根州的銷售會給你 80 到 90 個基點，而大宗商品會給你 70 個基點。風險成本將再次出現，影響力不如上半年，但可以稱之為對您不利的另一個 30 至 40 個基點的阻力。

So it's still sort of when you take the puts and takes speaking to this underlying100 basis points of solid waste margin expansion, which we've been consistently seeing. And again, I think, is a function of all of those pieces we've said, starting with the market selection and the assets, getting the synergy realization as these businesses are really sort of starting to gel, improved asset utilization and all of that like.

因此，當你看跌期權和看跌期權時，我們一直看到固體廢物利潤率擴張的潛在 100 個基點，這仍然是一種情況。我認為，這是我們所說的所有這些部分的一個功能，從市場選擇和資產開始，隨著這些業務真正開始凝結而實現協同效應，提高資產利用率等等喜歡。

And so I think it's all of those pieces. And obviously culminating a 30% consolidated margin for Q3 through the first time in our history of printing that it's something that we're pretty excited about.

所以我認為這就是所有這些部分。顯然，第三季的綜合利潤率在我們印刷史上首次達到 30%，這讓我們感到非常興奮。

Okay, thanks for that. And then another question we get asked occasionally, corporate costs, we've seen this drift higher as a percentage of sales over the last two or three years. Can you speak to some of the drivers behind that? And if you have line of sight into when you could be in a position to start leveraging those corporate costs and add to the margin expansion of the underlying businesses?

好的，謝謝。然後我們偶爾會被問到的另一個問題是企業成本，我們發現在過去兩三年裡，企業成本佔銷售額的百分比逐漸上升。您能談談這背後的一些推動者嗎？如果您知道何時能夠開始利用這些企業成本並增加基礎業務的利潤率擴張？

Yes, Devin, it's another great question. Something we sort of look a lot at. If you look over the last three years, I mean at a high level, you buy half of that is salaries, which sort of accretes up at normal course with the wage inflation. Now from going to a public company and doubling our size, we did increase some of the sort of support, particularly around ESG and some of these other sort of departments that weren't sort of full-fledged.

是的，德文，這是另一個很好的問題。我們經常關注的東西。如果你看看過去三年，我的意思是在高水平上，你購買的一半是工資，這在正常情況下會隨著工資通膨而增加。現在，透過成為一家上市公司並將我們的規模擴大一倍，我們確實增加了一些支持，特別是圍繞 ESG 和其他一些不成熟的部門。

So you did have an investment in resource there. Another significant component of non-site is IT costs. And as we articulated that sort of two years ago, massive investment to move a lot of our infrastructure into the cloud and just sort of prepare for ongoing scalability. Now some of that IT, it shows up in CapEx, obviously, but a large portion of it just sort of sits in that sort of corporate bucket.

所以你確實在那裡投資了資源。非站點的另一個重要組成部分是 IT 成本。正如我們兩年前所闡述的那樣，我們進行了大量投資，將我們的大量基礎設施遷移到雲端中，並為持續的可擴展性做好準備。現在，其中一些 IT 顯然出現在資本支出中，但其中很大一部分只是位於這類公司的桶中。

I think the third item to consider is there's actually been between the divestitures of last year and now Michigan again. So chunky amounts of revenue dispositions, which obviously is foregoing some of the leverage that you're getting on that number.

我認為要考慮的第三個問題是，去年的資產剝離和現在的密西根州的資產剝離實際上已經發生了。如此大量的收入配置，這顯然是放棄了你在這個數字上獲得的一些槓桿作用。

But when you think about it today, I think the resource investments have been made. I think the IT spend is there. And I think what you now are going to have is leveraging that as you go forward and grow our revenue base off of a corporate cost number that should sort of grow more just at a sort of normal course cost of inflation.

但今天想想，我認為資源投資已經完成了。我認為 IT 支出就在那裡。我認為，隨著企業成本數字的成長，我們的收入基礎應該會以正常的通貨膨脹成本成長。

Okay. Thanks for that. I'll turn it over.

好的。謝謝你。我會把它翻過來。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

Yes, hi, good morning, everyone. I wanted to ask, your margins in the second quarter were up, call, it [1.5] points ahead of normal seasonality, a really strong performance and the guidance for the third quarter is for another outsized margin move of a point versus normal seasonality.

是的，嗨，大家早安。我想問的是，你們第二季的利潤率上升了，打電話，它比正常季節性提前了[1.5] 個點，表現非常強勁，第三季的指導是與正常季節性相比，利潤率又大幅移動了一個點。

Can you just talk about what level of sequential price increase are you folks implementing to deliver that level of outperformance? And what are the sequential trends in unit costs that you're seeing drove the beat in 2Q and again, outperformance in 3Q?

您能談談你們正在實施什麼水準的連續漲價來實現這種水準的卓越表現嗎？您看到的單位成本的連續趨勢是什麼，推動了第二季的表現，並再次推動了第三季的表現？

Yes, thanks for the question (technical difficulty) This is a year that's returning back to us with a normal cadence of pricing action. What I mean by that is the vast majority of pricing actually occurred already. And so as a result, we're seeing a normal course step down. We started the year with a high this quarter at 6.5%, and you're going to be at a high 5's number in Q3 and then stepping down a little bit further in sort of Q4.

是的，感謝您提出問題（技術難度）。我的意思是，絕大多數定價其實已經發生了。因此，我們看到正常的做法有所下降。我們以本季 6.5% 的高點開始了今年，第三季將達到高 5 的數字，然後在第四季進一步下降。

So why I give that color and cadences because that margin is not being achieved by us going out and implementing a whole host of incremental price increases. It's simply all of the things that we have said coming together. So yes, you're getting price cost spread because although Q3 will be high 5's, you are going to be against a moderating cost inflation, still probably getting somewhere of 100, 150 basis points of spread on top of that.

所以為什麼我給出這樣的顏色和節奏，因為我們走出去並實施一系列增量提價並沒有實現這一利潤。這只是我們所說的所有事情的結合。所以，是的，你會得到價格成本利差，因為儘管第三季將是高5，但你將面臨成本通膨放緩的局面，除此之外，仍然可能會得到100、150 個基點的利差。

But that moderating cost inflation is also accelerating. I mean if you look at labor rates last Q2, labor rates year-over-year would have been up sort of mid to high single digit number versus now it's sort of sub 5%. And that sort of continued to trend in the right direction. I mean, R&M is obviously another sort of key cost that's been driving.

但成本通膨的放緩也在加速。我的意思是，如果你看一下上一季的勞動力價格，你會發現勞動力價格比去年同期上漲了中高個位數，而現在則低於 5%。這種趨勢繼續朝著正確的方向發展。我的意思是，R&M 顯然是另一個一直在推動的關鍵成本。

If you look at R&M as a percentage of revenue, I think we're sort of at a 10%-plus in Q1 lower, albeit in the lower seasonally revenue, but then that stepped down to a high 9s number in Q2. It's going to step down to sort of a low to mid 9s as a percentage of revenue in Q3. And so you're going to be getting the sort of talk coming out of that as well.

如果你將 R&M 佔收入的百分比來看，我認為我們在第一季度的收入下降了 10% 以上，儘管季節性收入較低，但隨後在第二季度下降到了 9 個高數字。第三季度，它佔收入的百分比將下降到 9 左右。因此，您也會從中聽到類似的言論。

I mean the commodity prices and the ramp in the first half of the year is certainly helping the Q3 margins as is the incremental impact from the exiting the Michigan portfolio, which as I said, about sort of 80, 90 bps going to help you in the quarter. But it's not any of these one things, Jerry. It's all of the things coming together.

我的意思是，大宗商品價格和上半年的上漲肯定有助於第三季度的利潤率，退出密西根投資組合的增量影響也是如此，正如我所說，大約 80、90 個基點將幫助您該季度。但這不是這些事情中的任何一件事，傑瑞。所有的事情都聚集在一起。

And as I said, going to yield a 30% margin for the first time in our history and we think there's a lot more room to run as we go forward to '25 and '26 and beyond as you really start getting the benefit of EPR, RNG and all those margin accretive pieces that we've been talking about for the last couple of years.

正如我所說，我們歷史上將首次實現 30% 的利潤率，我們認為，隨著我們進入 25 年、26 年及以後，當您真正開始受益於 EPR 時，還有更大的運行空間、RNG以及過去幾年我們一直在談論的所有那些利潤增值的作品。

Super. Appreciate the color. And on the RNG point. Luke, can you folks just weigh in on your updated views on the attractiveness of voluntary markets versus D3 RIN markets. Do you view the Chevron ruling as any uncertainties for the D3 RIN market? Can you just weigh with your updated thoughts on spot versus potentially locking those volumes longer term?

極好的。欣賞顏色。還有RNG的點。Luke，你們能談談您對自願市場與 D3 RIN 市場吸引力的最新看法嗎？您認為雪佛龍的裁決對 D3 RIN 市場有任何不確定性嗎？您能否權衡一下您的最新想法與長期鎖定這些交易量的可能性？

Yes. Again, nothing has moved and all the smarter people than us definitely on the RINs haven't, certainly don't have that perspective that, that Chevron decision will affect anything. But from our perspective, again, market continues to be very stable, being able to push as much as we can sort of in the transportation market given sort of RINs pricing.

是的。再說一遍，一切都沒有發生任何變化，RIN 上所有比我們更聰明的人肯定都沒有、當然沒有這樣的觀點：雪佛龍的決定會影響任何事情。但從我們的角度來看，市場仍然非常穩定，考慮到 RIN 定價，我們能夠在運輸市場上盡可能地推動發展。

Voluntary market continues to creep up. So I think as more volume continues to come online, I think there's going to be the opportunity to move some of that definitely into the voluntary market. And I think our strategy, long-term strategy really hasn't changed.

自願市場持續攀升。因此，我認為隨著更多的交易量繼續上線，我認為將有機會將其中一些肯定轉移到自願市場。我認為我們的策略，長期策略確實沒有改變。

So I think we're again, just highly focused on keeping that balance again longer term, we want to be, we still have the view that we want to be 60% into the sort of, into the voluntary market and then play the spot market on the other sort of balance 40%.

所以我認為我們再次高度關注長期保持這種平衡，我們希望，我們仍然認為我們希望 60% 進入自願市場，然後發揮作用市場上其他類型的餘額為 40%。

Super. And last question on ES. You folks have expanded margins significantly from when you folks acquired those businesses. Can you just talk about what the tax position and the tax basis looks like for those assets if you do move towards a sales, anything we should be keep doing (multiple speakers) US versus Canadian position?

極好的。最後一個關於 ES 的問題。自從收購這些業務以來，你們的利潤率已顯著擴大。您能否談談如果您確實進行銷售，這些資產的稅務狀況和稅基是什麼樣的，我們應該繼續做的事情（多位發言者）美國與加拿大的情況？

Yes. So you think about the business. I mean, if you look, I mean, the irony of it, the funny thing about it is when you look at ES, sort of mentioned it to the Board yesterday, as you look at that business, 2010, we got offered $100 million for our ES business. 2018, we got offered a $100 million for our ES business. And I think you've seen some of the numbers that are out there today.

是的。所以你考慮一下生意。我的意思是，如果你看一下，我的意思是，它的諷刺之處在於，有趣的是，當你看ES 時，昨天向董事會提到了這一點，當你看該業務時，2010 年，我們獲得了1 億美元的報價為我們的 ES 業務。 2018 年，我們的 ES 業務獲​​得了 1 億美元的投資。我想你已經看到了今天的一些數字。

And again, we've done, we got to, the management team there has done an amazing job. I mean they printed north of 29% margins in Q2. I mean, it's an amazing business, amazing margin profile with a lot of sort of runway, sort of sitting in front of it.

再說一遍，我們已經做到了，我們必須做到，那裡的管理團隊做得非常出色。我的意思是他們第二季的利潤率超過了 29%。我的意思是，這是一項令人驚嘆的業務，令人驚嘆的利潤率，還有很多跑道，有點坐在它前面。

That being said, it would be basically fully taxable in the US for the 20% piece. We do have a significant number of sort of losses that we could use in Canada. So I mean, I think depending obviously on the purchase price, but you could think about a tax bill sort of in the $500to $600 million range.

話雖這麼說，在美國，20% 的部分基本上要全額繳稅。我們確實有大量可以在加拿大利用的損失。所以我的意思是，我認為這顯然取決於購買價格，但你可以考慮 5 億至 6 億美元範圍內的稅單。

Super. I appreciate it. Thank you.

極好的。我很感激。謝謝。

James Schumm, TD Cowen.

詹姆斯·舒姆，TD·考恩。

Hey, good morning, guys. Nice quarter. Most of my questions have been answered. Maybe just one for me. I know it's way too early for 2025 guidance, but just at a high level with what the price cost spread opportunity, plus some RNG and EPR contributions.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。不錯的季度。我的大部分問題都得到了解答。也許對我來說只是一件。我知道對於 2025 年的指導來說還為時過早，但只是處於一個較高的水平，考慮到價格成本傳播機會，再加上一些 RNG 和 EPR 的貢獻。

Could we see another 100 basis points plus improvement to EBITDA margins next year? And then just thinking longer term about the volumes what they could do next year? Could those be flat to marginally up next year, or do you still have a lot of shedding ahead of you?

明年我們能否看到 EBITDA 利潤率再提高 100 個基點並有所改善？然後從更長遠的角度考慮他們明年可以做些什麼？明年這些數據可能會持平甚至略有上升，還是您還有很多損失要做？

Hey, James, it's Luke speaking. I mean, I think where we sit today, I'd say definitive yes that we're expecting next year to be another 100 plus, we'll obviously unveil the full guidance as we go forward. I think you're absolutely thinking about that correct. And if you do the math, you actually don't need to believe a lot to get to a number like that.

嘿，詹姆斯，我是盧克。我的意思是，我認為我們今天坐的位置，我會明確地說，是的，我們預計明年將是另外 100 多個，我們顯然會在前進過程中公佈完整的指導方針。我認為你的想法絕對正確。如果你算一下，你其實不需要相信太多就能得到這樣的數字。

In terms of the delivery volume strategy, look, as we said previously, early this year, this portfolio of residential projects in Michigan was like the last big chunk. I mean, there's always going to be pieces. And as you do M&A, the stuff around the edges, but I think the the lion's share of the strategy that was actually moving volume and over shadowing, actually underlying positive volume is largely sort of behind us.

就交付量策略而言，正如我們之前所說，今年年初，密西根州的住宅項目組合就像最後一大塊。我的意思是，總是會有碎片。當你進行併購時，邊緣的東西，但我認為，實際上移動成交量和過度陰影的策略的最大份額，實際上潛在的正成交量在很大程度上已經過去了。

So I think, we'll hold until the end of the year early next before we give a final view on volumes for 2025 but I certainly think we're not going to be printing at the minus 3% that we did the beginning half of this year, and it's certainly something sort of closer to flat with a path to being up.

因此，我認為，我們將堅持到明年年初，然後我們才會對 2025 年的產量做出最終的看法，但我當然認為我們不會像上半年那樣以負 3% 的速度印刷。會更加趨於平緩，但仍有上升的空間。

Great. Thanks, Luke. I'll turn it back.

偉大的。謝謝，盧克。我會把它轉回來。

Brian Butler, Stifel.

布萊恩巴特勒，斯蒂菲爾。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. First one on just on the ES time line, I guess you talked about after Labor Day kind of starting the auction process. I guess what what's your thoughts on and maybe appetite on how long that process runs? I mean, does that go through the end of 2024, maybe into '25? Or is there an expectation to try to do that sooner rather than later?

嗨，早安。感謝您提出我的問題。第一個是關於 ES 時間線的，我猜你談到了勞動節之後開始拍賣過程。我想您對此流程的運行時間有何想法或興趣？我的意思是，這會持續到 2024 年底，也許會持續到 25 年嗎？或者是否期望盡快做到這一點？

I mean from our perspective, we want to get it done as soon as we possibly could. Again, just, it'll be a question of how fast we can move. I think for most of us that know us, they generally don't think we waste a lot of time. And I think the beauty of this business is, this is not a 100 person auction. This is, I would say 8 to 10 of sophisticated buyers that have played in this space over and over again.

我的意思是，從我們的角度來看，我們希望盡快完成它。再說一遍，這將是我們行動速度有多快的問題。我認為對於我們大多數了解我們的人來說，他們通常不認為我們浪費了很多時間。我認為這項業務的美妙之處在於，這不是一場 100 人的拍賣會。我想說的是，有 8 到 10 位經驗豐富的買家在這個領域一遍又一遍地玩過。

So there's not a typical learning curve about assets, markets, et cetera. So from our perspective, I think it will move very quick. But again, you never know. I think the biggest thing for us is, again, just getting the cargo financials done, particularly if it's a financial sponsor buyer.

因此，關於資產、市場等，並沒有典型的學習曲線。所以從我們的角度來看，我認為它會進展得非常快。但話又說回來，你永遠不知道。我認為對我們來說最重要的是，再次完成貨運財務，特別是如果它是財務贊助買家。

Obviously, we've been a public company. We reported the segment independently. But for someone to get financing, a part of what we have to do is get cargo financials. So that's in process. But other than that, I don't see my goal would be clearly to get it done versus when we report Q4 at the latest, but hopefully, we get, we're able to come up with a path one way or another within a calendar year 2024.

顯然，我們是一家上市公司。我們獨立報道了這部分。但對於想要獲得融資的人來說，我們必須做的一部分就是獲得貨物財務資訊。所以這正在進行中。但除此之外，我認為與我們最遲報告第四季度時相比，我的目標不會明確地完成它，但希望我們能夠在一段時間內以某種方式提出一條路徑。 。

Okay. And then I mean, maybe on the M&A spend for the back half and then maybe just thinking about the pipeline going into '25. Obviously, it's moderating in the back half of '24 to be at the leverage target. When you think about the opportunities still in front of me in your pipeline, how should we think about 2025 M&A? And then maybe if the sale of yes, happen, should that be much, much larger? Just trying to think about where that could go?

好的。然後我的意思是，也許是後半段的併購支出，然後也許只是考慮進入 25 年的管道。顯然，24 年下半年槓桿率目標正在放緩。當您想到您的管道中仍然存在的機會時，我們應該如何考慮 2025 年的併購？然後也許如果出售是的，發生的話，規模應該大得多嗎？只是想想它會去哪裡？

Yes. I mean, again, backdrop is, again, we've committed to keeping leverage in the 3 that I think the goal is to get sort of leverage absent sort of a sale was to get leverage down in the mid 3's for '25. So I guess that would drive the M&A spend. I think when you look at that for next year, you could, this year if we spend $600 to $650 million on M&A, given sort of some of the most recent EPR win that we have, again, having a hybrid, balancing between M&A spend and sort of on the organic growth comp expense.

是的。我的意思是，背景是，我們再次承諾將槓桿率保持在 3 左右，我認為目標是在沒有出售的情況下獲得某種槓桿率，以便在 25 年將槓桿率降低到 3 左右。所以我認為這將推動併購支出。我認為，當你考慮明年的情況時，今年如果我們在併購上花費 600 至 6.5 億美元，考慮到我們最近取得的一些 EPR 勝利，我們再次在併購支出之間進行混合平衡以及有機增長補償費用。

I think next year, we can step it up for sure from $650 probably closer to something, somewhere between a $850 and $1 billion. Obviously, if we did something with the ES business, I mean that would give you ultimate flexibility to do whatever you want. I think you could certainly spend more leverage wouldn't really move coupled together sort of with the share buybacks. I mean, I think you'd have a lot of flexibility to even take that M&A spend higher

我認為明年，我們肯定可以將其從 650 美元提高到接近 850 美元到 10 億美元之間的水平。顯然，如果我們對 ES 業務做點什麼，我的意思是這會給你最大的靈活性，讓你可以做任何你想做的事情。我認為你當然可以花費更多的槓桿，但不會真正與股票回購結合在一起。我的意思是，我認為你會有很大的靈活性，甚至可以接受更高的併購支出

And Brian, it's Luke speaking in reference to $850 to $1 billion that you could potentially be looking at in a non the ES divestiture sort of scenario. I just want everyone to recall, with this size, roughly every $500 million you deploy in M&A has an impact a leverage of about 10 basis points round numbers.

Brian，盧克正在談論 850 至 10 億美元，您可能會在非 ES 剝離的情況下考慮這一點。我只是想讓大家記住，在這樣的規模下，您在併購中投入的每 5 億美元大約都會產生約 10 個基點整數的槓桿影響。

So if you think about the organic deleveraging model, if you're ending this year and that sort of 3.65 to 3.85 range, organically, you would delever to something well, below 3.5. And even at spending, that $1 billion of a level of M&A still very sort of comfortably arriving at the end of 2025. in that sort of mid 3s range.

因此，如果你考慮有機去槓桿化模型，如果你今年結束時處於 3.65 至 3.85 的範圍，有機地你會去槓桿化到低於 3.5 的水平。即使以支出計算，到 2025 年底，10 億美元的併購水準仍然可以輕鬆實現，在 3 美元左右的範圍內。

Okay. That's great color. And if I could slip one last one in there. Cutting through kind of maybe on the service or maybe I'm sorry, not service, but the shutting of volume, if you look at the service intervals on the commercial business, are you still seeing upgrades kind of outpacing downgrades in that piece of the business?

好的。那顏色真棒。如果我能把最後一顆塞進去就好了。也許是在服務上，或者對不起，不是服務，而是數量的關閉，如果你看看商業業務的服務間隔，你是否仍然看到升級的速度超過了降級的速度商業？

Yes. So I mean, it's obviously market-specific. But by and large, yes, we continue to see them outpacing decline, so in markets very healthy. So, it's, we haven't seen anything sort of material. Obviously, special waste volumes continues to chunk side waste, just given where the interest rates are sort of sitting in. But I think other than that, it's been very good.

是的。所以我的意思是，這顯然是針對特定市場的。但總的來說，是的，我們繼續看到它們的成長速度超過了下降速度，因此市場非常健康。所以，我們還沒有看到任何材料。顯然，考慮到利率所處的位置，特殊廢棄物量繼續大量增加副廢棄物。但我認為除此之外，一切都非常好。

Great. Thanks for taking the question.

偉大的。感謝您提出問題。

Rupert Merer, National Banks Canada.

梅勒 (Rupert Merer)，加拿大國家銀行。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. I'd like to start by following up on that last question. If you're looking to deploy capital from the sale of ES business, what's your view on the optimal level of debt, the remaining companies? Is it still the same as it mid 3s or if you have the option, could that go lower?

嘿，大家早安。感謝您提出問題。我想先跟進最後一個問題。如果您希望透過出售 ES 業務來部署資本，您對其餘公司的最佳債務水平有何看法？它仍然與 3 秒左右相同嗎？

I think, when we ran our models internally with the sale, I think you would basically, I mean, I think comfortably move into 3 and that to get to IG, to make sure you're definitively square in the view of getting that sort of investment grade rate. I mean, if you're going to be that close, you might as well move to 3 and definitively get the IG rating.

我想，當我們在銷售中運行我們的模型時，我認為你基本上會，我的意思是，我認為你會輕鬆地進入 3 並進入 IG，以確保你完全同意獲得這種排序投資等級率。我的意思是，如果你要那麼接近，你不妨移動到 3 並最終獲得 IG 評級。

There's no reason for sort of teeter-totter, I'm trying to be cute with that number. So I think you would move that target leverage. You're going to move between 2.75 and sort of 3.25 for a period of time, but ultimately to our target leverage would sit around 3 post the transaction.

沒有理由搖搖欲墜，我只是想用這個數字來表現得可愛一點。所以我認為你會改變目標槓桿。您將在 2.75 和 3.25 之間移動一段時間，但最終我們的目標槓桿將在交易後保持在 3 左右。

Okay, great. And then looking at M&A potential with any remaining proceeds, how do you see the relative prices assets in your pipeline today versus the price of your stock, if you're looking at buybacks and with the pipeline have any platform acquisition opportunities or you think they're still plenty to do in tuck-ins?

好的，太好了。然後看看剩餘收益的併購潛力，如果您正在考慮回購，並且管道中有任何平台收購機會，或者您認為它們，您如何看待今天管道中的資產相對於股票價格的相對價格塞進衣服還有很多事要做嗎？

So couple of things in there. I mean, I think, again, from my perspective, to get an asset of this quality at this level to be again, going back to Luke's comments earlier and talk about '25 and '26, the business is trading at sort of 12, 12.5 times today, and you run that out to '26 and you start, in 12 to 14 months from now, you're trading off of the 2026 number, this business is, with EPR and RNG is trading somewhere around probably 10 times 2026, depending sort of how you modeled it.

裡面有幾件事。我的意思是，我認為，從我的角度來看，要再次獲得這種水平的這種質量的資產，回到盧克之前的評論並談論'25和'26，該業務的交易價格約為12，今天是12.5 倍，你將其運行到26 年，從現在起的12 到14 個月內，你將在2026 年的數字上進行權衡，這項業務是，EPR 和RNG 的交易量可能是2026 年的10 倍，取決於您建模的方式。

I mean I don't think there's a higher and better use of capital than to buy back sort of our own stock at that level. That being said, that would be one use of capital. There is a significant amount of M&A in the markets where we already operate. I mean, again, we have a very large footprint, 10 provinces in Canada, 24, 25 states in the US, some high-growth markets with a lot of opportunity. So again, we feel very comfortable that we can deploy that capital. And again, from a valuation perspective, again, it's hit and miss, I mean there are some assets that are more expensive than others.

我的意思是，我認為沒有比在這個水準上回購我們自己的股票更好、更好的資本利用方式了。話雖如此，這將是資本的一種用途。我們已經經營的市場中有大量併購活動。我的意思是，我們的足跡非常大，加拿大的 10 個省，美國的 24、25 個州，以及一些有很多機會的高成長市場。因此，我們再次對能夠部署這些資本感到非常放心。再說一遍，從估值的角度來看，這又是時好時壞，我的意思是有些資產比其他資產更貴。

But by and large, valuations from our perspective, maybe they've ticked down a little bit because of the higher interest rates. But I would say that, again, from the competition for some of the medium-sized assets, you have a little bit on the private equity side that compete with you.

但總的來說，從我們的角度來看，估值可能會因為利率上升而略有下降。但我想說，從一些中型資產的競爭來看，私募股權方面也有一些與你競爭。

And as the leveraged finance markets have come back, even though rates are a little bit higher, this continues, you can, again, similar to the math, I gave earlier on the call, you can make the IRRs work if you believe in the sort of growth trajectory and the stability of the business.

隨著槓桿金融市場的回歸，儘管利率稍微高一點，但這種情況仍在繼續，你可以再次類似於我之前在電話會議上給出的數學，如果你相信內部收益率，你就可以使內部收益率發揮作用。

So I think nothing has really changed from a tuck-in side. And again, there is a significant amount of M&A and white space within the existing footprint that we have.

所以我認為從塞進去的角度來看，沒有什麼真正改變。再說一遍，我們現有的足跡中存在著大量的併購和空白空間。

Great. Thanks color. I'll leave it there.

偉大的。謝謝顏色。我會把它留在那裡。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tobey Sommer, Truist.

托比·索默，真理主義者。

Thanks. How has employee attrition training and safety expense trended year-to-date? Is there room for improvement from here and is there a difference in trends if you look at the business geographically between Canada and the US?

謝謝。今年迄今為止，員工流失培訓和安全費用的趨勢如何？如果從地理位置來看加拿大和美國的業務，這裡是否還有改進的空間？

Sure. I think there's a difference between secondary and urban markets. Secondary markets, again, employee turnover, obviously, significantly lower than the urban markets, which has been good. I think if you look at trailing 12 months as a business as a whole, like I said last year, we were sort of, we were trending sort of mid 20s.

當然。我認為二級市場和城市市場是有區別的。二級市場的員工流動率也明顯低於城市市場，這一點已經不錯了。我認為，如果你將過去 12 個月視為一個整體，就像我去年所說的那樣，我們的趨勢是 20 多歲左右。

Today, we're just above 20. And we think that again, goes back to sort of where we were pre-COVID sort of in the high teens. So mid to high teens is what the goal is. And we are definitely on a trailing 12 month basis trending down. I mean turnover down over sort of 4, 4.5% over the last 12 months. So we are definitely heading in the right direction. And the opportunity is still great to continue moving again, down sort of mid to high teens.

今天，我們剛滿20歲。我們認為，這又回到了新冠疫情爆發之前我們十幾歲的時候。所以中高青少年是我們的目標。而且我們在過去 12 個月的基礎上確實呈現下​​降趨勢。我的意思是，過去 12 個月營業額下降了 4%、4.5%。所以我們肯定正朝著正確的方向前進。繼續再次移動的機會仍然很大，下降到中高十幾歲。

Thanks. Could you discuss any cross-selling or historic benefits that we should have in mind between solid waste and ES that generated with those businesses together that might not be a feature of the RemainCo?

謝謝。您能否討論一下我們應該牢記的固體廢棄物和 ES 之間的任何交叉銷售或歷史效益，這些效益可能不是 RemainCo 的一個特點，這些效益是由這些業務共同產生的？

Yes. So I think if you look at it, I mean, the model that had a solid waste need, right, not in the sort of reverse. So yes, there was cross-selling opportunities. But the way it's structured today is you basically have a solid waste salesmen and you have a liquid waste environmental services salesman, right? Or saleswomen. And I think when you look at that, we basically incorporate effectively a buddy-buddy system.

是的。所以我認為如果你看一下它，我的意思是，這個模型有固體廢物需求，對吧，而不是相反。所以，是的，存在交叉銷售機會。但今天的結構方式是基本上有一個固體廢物銷售員和一個液體廢物環境服務銷售員，對嗎？或女售貨員。我認為當你看到這一點時，我們基本上有效地整合了好友系統。

So in every region, each of the salespeople on the respective sides of the business has a buddy-buddy that can cross-sell between the two lines. In a transaction, I think that is valuable to both companies. And my inclination today in sort of discussions with certain prospective buyers, that would sort of stay in place.

因此，在每個地區，業務雙方的每個銷售人員都有一個可以在兩條線路之間進行交叉銷售的伙伴。在交易中，我認為這對兩家公司都很有價值。今天我傾向於與某些潛在買家進行討論，這將保持不變。

I don't, we don't think that would change in any material way because it's a benefit to sort of both companies. Today, they're getting two separate invoices regardless, one for each service. So again, that wouldn't be something we have to decouple. So from our perspective, I think that would be ongoing and is beneficial to both of us.

我不認為，我們認為這不會發生任何實質的改變，因為這對兩家公司都有好處。如今，無論如何，他們都會收到兩張單獨的發票，每項服務一張。再說一遍，這不是我們必須解耦的東西。因此，從我們的角度來看，我認為這將持續下去，並且對我們雙方都有好處。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員說明）

Chris Murray, ATB Capital Markets.

Chris Murray，ATB 資本市場。

Yes, thanks. Good morning. Maybe turning around the color code, the more boring blocking and tackling stuff. I know we've talked in previous calls about some of the margin enhancements and improvements. And you touched a little bit on labor and turnover management.

是的，謝謝。早安.也許扭轉顏色代碼，更無聊的阻擋和鏟球的東西。我知道我們在之前的電話會議中已經討論過一些利潤的提高和改進。您也談到了一點關於勞動力和營業額管理的問題。

But just wondering how you're making progress on your kind of core waste margins and some of the initiatives. I think we talked a little bit about rolling out things like tablets and the trucks and some of the other pricing initiatives. Just wondering if there's any color on kind of the walk into higher margins as we go through the next few quarters?

但只是想知道你們在核心廢棄物利潤率和一些措施方面取得了怎樣的進展。我想我們討論了一些關於推出平板電腦和卡車等產品以及其他一些定價舉措的問題。只是想知道在接下來的幾個季度中，我們是否會獲得更高的利潤率？

Yes, it's a great question, something that as we look at the margin profile of what we're being able to deliver and the expansion year-over-year is very evident that the strategies we've been talking to are being sort of highly successful.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，當我們審視我們能夠提供的利潤狀況以及逐年擴張時，我們一直在討論的策略非常明顯。

And again, Chris, I think it's all of the above coming through in the beginning stages of what those ultimate run rates could be. I mean you mentioned the tablets and the trucks. I mean, that is a new initiative for this year that's in the nascent stages. And yes, there's a little bit of modest contribution, but nothing compared to one that's fully ramped with the implementation completed towards end of Q4 into Q1 of next year.

克里斯，我再說一遍，我認為上述所有內容都是在最終運行率可能達到的初始階段實現的。我的意思是你提到了平板電腦和卡車。我的意思是，這是今年的一項新舉措，目前還處於初期階段。是的，確實有一點小小的貢獻，但與在第四季末到明年第一季完成實施的全面提升相比，這不算什麼。

And so that's going to be another lever that's going to be sort of additive. We talk about the RNG. And this year, we have a very modest amount of it. But as the full portfolio comes online, you think about the margin accretive nature of that is EPR. You heard Patrick talking about, we now have sort of roughly $130 million of EPR contracts in hand. You're going to have, I think we said $5 million to $10 million of contribution in this year.

因此，這將成為另一個具有附加作用的槓桿。我們談論RNG。今年，我們的資金量非常有限。但隨著完整的投資組合上線，您會想到 EPR 的利潤增值性質。你聽到帕特里克談到，我們現在手頭上有大約 1.3 億美元的 EPR 合約。我想我們說過今年會提供 500 萬至 1000 萬美元的捐款。

But then that ramps up to '25 and '26 and call, that's all accretive margins, which unto itself is going to take our Canadian solid waste margin up to low 30s and be accretive to both the consolidated solid margins and the consolidated business as a whole, continuing with the benefits and the rollover now that's exiting in the Michigan portfolio contracts. There'll be a rollover effect into next year. And you have really all of these pieces coming together.

但隨後會上升到“25”和“26”，這都是利潤增值，這本身將使我們的加拿大固體廢物利潤率升至 30 多美元，並增加綜合固體利潤和綜合業務作為整體而言，繼續享受密西根投資組合合約中現有的福利和展期。明年將會產生滾動效應。你真的把所有這些部分組合在一起了。

I mean, as we start talking about the next layer down of CNG conversion, improved asset utilization from routing technologies. This is the sort of next leg up that we anticipate being able to see. And Chris, what I would say is we're actively engaged over on this side, looking and figuring out how to prioritize all of these value-add levers in front of us.

我的意思是，當我們開始討論 CNG 轉換的下一層時，透過路由技術提高資產利用率。這是我們預計能夠看到的下一步。克里斯，我想說的是，我們在這方面積極參與，尋找並弄清楚如何優先考慮我們面前的所有這些增值槓桿。

And we hope to do as an Investor Day later this year, [tee] is all up and articulate what the next couple of years could look like. But as you heard it from Patrick, I mean there's a lot of focus on 2024, but from our perspective, I think we're sort of missing the forest for the trees when you think about what this looks like in sort of '26 and beyond. And so we do look forward at our Investor Day at the end of the year sort of to piece out and quantify what all those buckets could be.

我們希望在今年稍後的投資者日，[tee] 全部準備就緒，並闡明未來幾年的情況。但正如您從帕特里克那裡聽到的那樣，我的意思是，人們對2024 年有很多關注，但從我們的角度來看，當您考慮26 年和2024 年的情況時，我認為我們有點只見樹木不見森林。因此，我們確實期待著年底的投資者日，以弄清楚並量化所有這些桶可能是什麼。

Okay, Great. Along those lines, though, the other question, just in terms of being able to receive things like new vehicles, technology, things like that, I know there's been some supply chain issues and, but it seems like a lot of stuff is starting to feel better. How are you finding kind of things like truck supply, things like that in terms of your ability to get kind of newer trucks into the system, help you avoid maintenance costs, things like that?

好的，太好了。不過，沿著這些思路，另一個問題，就能夠接收新車、技術之類的東西而言，我知道存在一些供應鏈問題，但似乎很多東西都開始感覺好多了。您如何找到諸如卡車供應之類的事情，就您將新型卡車納入系統的能力而言，幫助您避免維護成本之類的事情？

Yes. So we were sitting at around 70% of what we wanted. If you go back sort of 1.5, 2 years ago. I think that's trended sort of like 85% to 90%. And I think we could be 100% of where we want to be, absent, again, some of these big new EPR contract that we have had to reallocate units coming off the floor to these because of the contract start dates of those. But I think, yes, the log jam has definitely subsided, and we're moving to a point now where we can get exactly what we want.

是的。所以我們目前的成績大約達到了我們想要的 70%。如果你回到 1.5、2 年前。我認為趨勢是 85% 到 90%。我認為我們可以 100% 實現我們想要的目標，再次缺席一些大型新 EPR 合同，由於這些合約的開始日期，我們不得不將即將交付的單位重新分配給這些合約。但我認為，是的，原木堵塞肯定已經消退，我們現在正處於可以得到我們想要的東西的階段。

Good. And then one quick one, just to clean up. Just in terms of the ES business, is there any back office systems or anything? I know, Patrick, you talked about sort of the sales front end, but is there any back-office or common areas that you'd have to split up or anything that would make a kind of a sales complicated from an operational process?

好的。然後快一點，只是為了清理。就ES業務來說，有後台系統什麼的嗎？我知道，派崔克，你談到了某種銷售前端，但是是否有任何後台或公共區域是你必須分開的，或者任何會使銷售從操作流程中變得複雜的東西？

Not really. Obviously there's a little bit in treasury and then definitely a little bit in HR are the two big sort of overlaps, but by and large, it's very, it will be one of the simpler things we've done in our history. So again, not nothing that would be an impediment to making it happen.

並不真地。顯然，財務部門有一點，人力資源部門肯定有一點，這是兩大類重疊，但總的來說，這將是我們歷史上做過的最簡單的事情之一。再說一次，沒有任何事物會成為實現這一目標的障礙。

Chris, the divestitures we did last year were more sort of inextricably linked with the business than ES would be. So just as a point of reference, this would be a cleaner sort of extraction than that was.

克里斯，我們去年所做的資產剝離與業務的連結比 ES 更為緊密。因此，作為參考，這將是一種比以前更乾淨的提取方式。

Okay, folks. I'll leave it there.

好吧，夥計們。我會把它留在那裡。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Chris. I would now like to hand it back to Patrick for some final remarks.

謝謝你，克里斯。現在我想把它交還給派崔克，讓他做最後的評論。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning, and we look forward to speaking to you after Q3. Thank you very much.

謝謝大家今天早上加入我們，我們期待在第三季之後與你們交談。非常感謝。

Thank you all for joining the GFL second-quarter 2024 earnings call. Please enjoy the rest of your day and you may now disconnect from the call.

感謝大家參加 GFL 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。請享受您今天剩下的時間，您現在可以掛斷電話了。