GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GFL Environmental Inc. 2024 First Quarter Earnings Call. My name is Glenn. I will be the operator for today's call. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand you over to your host, Patrick Dovigi, Founder and CEO of GFL Environmental, Patrick, you may now begin.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 GFL Environmental Inc. 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫格倫。我將擔任今天電話的接線生。 （操作員指示）我現在將您交給主持人帕特里克·多維吉（Patrick Dovigi），GFL Environmental 的創始人兼首席執行官帕特里克，您現在可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to today's call, and thank you for joining us. This morning, we will be reviewing our results for the quarter. I am joined this morning by Luke Pelosi, our CFO, who will take us through our forward-looking disclaimer before we get into details.

謝謝你，早安。我歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議，並感謝您加入我們。今天早上，我們將回顧本季的業績。今天早上，我們的財務長盧克佩洛西 (Luke Pelosi) 與我一起，在我們詳細介紹之前，他將向我們介紹前瞻性免責聲明。

Thank you, Patrick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. We have filed our earnings press release, which includes important information. The press release as well as a presentation to accompany this call is available on our website. During this call, we'll be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate may occur in the future.

謝謝你，派崔克。大家早安，感謝您的加入。我們已經提交了收益新聞稿，其中包含重要資訊。我們的網站上提供了新聞稿以及本次電話會議的簡報。在本次電話會議中，我們將做出一些適用加拿大和美國證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明，包括有關我們認為或預期未來可能發生的事件或發展的聲明。

These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set out in our filings with the Canadian and U.S. Securities regulators. Any forward-looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements.

這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件中列出的風險和不確定性。任何前瞻性陳述都不是對未來績效的保證，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。

These forward-looking statements speak only as of today's date and we do not assume any obligation to update these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events and developments or otherwise. This call will include a discussion of certain non-IFRS measures. A reconciliation of these non-IFRS measures can be found in our filings with the Canadian and U.S. Securities regulators. I will now turn the call back over to Patrick.

這些前瞻性陳述僅代表今天的情況，我們不承擔任何更新這些陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件和發展或其他原因。本次電話會議將討論某些非國際財務報告準則措施。這些非國際財務報告準則措施的調節可以在我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件中找到。我現在將把電話轉回給帕特里克。

Thank you, Luke. Once again, we started the year with the strength of our high-quality employees and asset base driving performance ahead of expectations. This is our fifth year of being a public company, and I continue to be humbled by the capacity of more than our 20,000 employees to consistently deliver results ahead of our plans.

謝謝你，盧克。我們再次憑藉高素質員工和資產基礎的力量開啟了新的一年，推動績效超出預期。這是我們成為上市公司的第五個年頭，我仍然對我們 20,000 多名員工始終如一地提前實現計劃交付成果的能力感到謙卑。

On our last call, in what has become our usual practice, we provided our 2024 guidance with an industry-leading degree of transparency and the details of the moving pieces that we anticipated this year, including what we expected to be industry-leading organic margin expansion in our base business. We also outlined the specifics of our planned M&A and growth investments.

在我們的最後一次電話會議上，按照我們的慣例，我們提供了 2024 年指導，其透明度達到行業領先水平，並提供了我們今年預期的變化細節的詳細信息，包括我們預期行業領先的有機利潤率擴大我們的基礎業務。我們也概述了我們計劃的併購和成長投資的具體細節。

Our first quarter results are better than we guided, and we fully expect this positive momentum to continue for the balance of the year. Luke will walk us through the details, but I wanted to first highlight a few key metrics. First quarter pricing was 7.7% on a like-for-like basis. Our pricing strategies continue to outperform expectations, and we remain optimistic about our ability to realize incremental pricing opportunities as we replicate the pricing playbook that our public company peers have already successfully employed.

我們第一季的業績好於我們的指導，我們完全預計這一積極勢頭將在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。盧克將向我們介紹詳細信息，但我想首先強調一些關鍵指標。第一季的年比定價為 7.7%。我們的定價策略繼續超出預期，我們對實現增量定價機會的能力保持樂觀，因為我們複製了上市公司同行已經成功採用的定價策略。

With the strength of our first quarter pricing, we are highly confident that we will be able to meet or exceed our price guidance for the year. We expect the recent strength in commodity prices that continue to be upside versus our guidance. On the cost side, labor turnover is sequentially improving and is yielding efficiencies and onboarding cost productivity and the overall cost of risk.

憑藉第一季定價的優勢，我們非常有信心能夠達到或超過今年的價格指引。我們預期近期大宗商品價格的走強將持續高於我們的指引。在成本方面，勞動力流動率正在連續改善，並正在提高效率、入職成本生產力和整體風險成本。

R&M costs are also improving as the unit cost inflation moderates and fleet replacement rates improve. The result is the realization of outsized price cost spread that supports ongoing margin expansion. Volume growth in the quarter was negative 3%. This was significantly better than our expectations as the negative impact on volume of the unusually cold January weather in our southern markets was offset by the positive impact of milder weather in most of our northern markets in February and March.

隨著單位成本通膨放緩和機隊更換率提高，研發與維護成本也在改善。結果是實現了巨大的價格成本價差，支持了利潤率的持續擴張。本季銷量成長為負 3%。這明顯好於我們的預期，因為南方市場一月份異常寒冷的天氣對成交量的負面影響被大部分北方市場二月和三月溫和天氣的正面影響所抵消。

We expect some of this could be a pull forward of second quarter volumes. However, we remain confident in our full year volume expectations included in our guidance. We also remain confident in the effectiveness of our deliberate volume strategies. As we've discussed, our industry-leading growth has provided us outsized opportunities to improve asset utilization and drive margin expansion through the internal -- intentional shedding of lower quality revenues. We believe the benefits of these strategies are evident in our margin performance.

我們預計其中一部分可能是第二季銷售的提前。然而，我們對我們的指導中包含的全年銷售預期仍然充滿信心。我們也對我們深思熟慮的成交量策略的有效性充滿信心。正如我們所討論的，我們行業領先的成長為我們提供了巨大的機會來提高資產利用率，並透過內部有意削減較低品質的收入來推動利潤率擴張。我們相信這些策略的好處在我們的利潤率表現中是顯而易見的。

As we highlighted on our year-end call, we are also actively deploying growth capital across a variety of initiatives that we expect will generate significant ROIC for years to come. In the first quarter, we deployed $62 million into incremental growth investments primarily related to recycling and RNG infrastructure. For the full year 2024, we remain on track to deploy $250 million to $300 million into these investments as we previously guided.

正如我們在年終電話會議上所強調的那樣，我們還在各種舉措中積極部署成長資本，我們預計這些舉措將在未來幾年產生可觀的投資回報率。第一季度，我們部署了 6,200 萬美元用於主要與回收和 RNG 基礎設施相關的增量成長投資。在 2024 年全年，我們仍將按照先前的指導，向這些投資部署 2.5 億至 3 億美元。

The EPR landscape in our Canadian market continues to evolve, and we remain confident that we will see upside to the $80 million to $100 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA we previously identified associated with these initiatives. As we said earlier, the contribution from these contracts is expected to start late this year, ramp up through 2025 and achieve our expected full contribution in fiscal 2026.

加拿大市場的 EPR 格局不斷發展，我們仍然有信心看到我們先前確定的與這些舉措相關的 8000 萬至 1 億美元增量調整後 EBITDA 的成長空間。正如我們之前所說，這些合約的貢獻預計將於今年年底開始，到 2025 年逐步增加，並在 2026 財年實現我們預期的全額貢獻。

On RNG, our first facility of Arbor Hills landfill is continuing to ramp up its operations, generating cash flow in line with our expectations. We have 2 or 3 more facilities that we'll expect to come online by the end of the year. We remain confident that we will realize the $175 million of adjusted EBITDA previously disclosed once our portfolio of landfill gas to energy facilities is fully operational in the coming years.

在 RNG 方面，我們位於 Arbor Hills 垃圾掩埋場的第一個設施正在繼續擴大運營，產生的現金流符合我們的預期。我們還有 2 到 3 個設施預計在今年年底上線。我們仍然相信，一旦我們的垃圾掩埋氣發電設施組合在未來幾年全面投入運營，我們將實現先前披露的 1.75 億美元調整後 EBITDA。

In addition to organic growth initiatives, we have deployed approximately $500 million into 6 acquisitions since the beginning of this year. All these acquisitions were in Solid Waste within our existing geographies. The largest of the 6 acquisitions we discussed at our last earnings call is a vertically integrated asset in Central Florida, one of the fastest-growing markets in the U.S.

除了有機成長計畫外，自今年年初以來，我們還投入了約 5 億美元進行 6 項收購。所有這些收購都是在我們現有地區的固體廢棄物中進行的。我們在上次財報電話會議上討論的 6 項收購中規模最大的一項是位於佛羅裡達州中部的垂直整合資產，這是美國成長最快的市場之一。

This asset is highly complementary to our existing network, and we expect that it will act as a driver for significant organic growth for us in this market for years to come. Like most acquisitions of this caliber, the M&A process commenced over 6 months before closing and the consummation of this transaction was fully anticipated when we provided our capital allocation framework in November of last year.

該資產與我們現有的網路高度互補，我們預計它將在未來幾年內成為我們在該市場顯著有機成長的驅動力。與大多數此類規模的收購一樣，併購過程在交割前就開始了 6 個多月，當我們在去年 11 月提供資本配置框架時，我們就充分預期了這項交易的完成。

While we continue to maintain a robust acquisition pipeline, we remain absolutely committed to the guidance for our total 2024 growth investments and net leverage that we set out at the beginning of the year. As we have consistently demonstrated the predictable recurring nature of the revenues and cash flows generated by our business allow us to forecast the full year's results with a high degree of accuracy.

在我們繼續保持強勁的收購管道的同時，我們仍然絕對致力於我們在年初制定的 2024 年增長投資總額和淨槓桿率的指導。由於我們一貫證明我們業務產生的收入和現金流具有可預測的經常性性質，因此我們能夠高度準確地預測全年業績。

Within a given year, weather-driven timing differences between the first and second quarters can impact comparability on a year-over-year basis, and therefore, we typically have waited until the first half of the year to give updated guidance for the year.

在給定的一年內，第一季和第二季之間由天氣驅動的時間差異可能會影響同比的可比性，因此，我們通常會等到上半年才給出今年的最新指導。

While we believe there could be some revenue pulled forward from the second quarter because of weather-related impacts, based on the quality of the margin performance in the first quarter, we are increasing our guidance for 2024 adjusted EBITDA to $2.23 billion. We will provide a more fulsome guidance update when we report our second quarter results.

雖然我們認為，由於天氣相關的影響，第二季度的收入可能會提前，但根據第一季的利潤表現質量，我們將 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 的指導上調至 22.3 億美元。當我們報告第二季業績時，我們將提供更全面的指導更新。

I'll now pass the call to Luke, who will walk us through the quarter in more detail, and then I'll share some closing comments before we open it up for Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉給盧克，他將更詳細地引導我們了解本季度，然後在我們開始問答之前我將分享一些結束語。

Thanks, Patrick. Our accompanying investor presentation provides supplemental analysis to summarize performance in the quarter and a consistent format to what we've previously provided.

謝謝，派崔克。我們隨附的投資者簡報提供了補充分析，以總結本季度的業績，並與我們之前提供的內容保持一致的格式。

Revenue for the quarter of $1.8 billion was 6.5% higher than the prior year, excluding the impact of the Solid Waste divestitures. Stronger-than-anticipated pricing and volume were the primary drivers of this result that was $25 million ahead of internal expectations. While the January cold weather in our southern markets negatively impacted volumes, the above-average temperatures later in the quarter in many of our northern U.S. and Canadian markets partially offset the January impacts.

剔除固體廢棄物資產剝離的影響，本季營收為 18 億美元，較上年同期成長 6.5%。強於預期的定價和銷售是這一結果的主要驅動力，比內部預期高出 2500 萬美元。雖然南方市場一月份的寒冷天氣對銷量產生了負面影響，但美國北部和加拿大許多市場本季晚些時候高於平均水平的氣溫部分抵消了一月份的影響。

As Patrick said, the strength of our first quarter pricing activities is highly encouraging for the achievement or exceedance of our pricing expectations for the year, with over 80% of our full year pricing impact already locked in based on the contracted nature of our business.

正如帕特里克所說，我們第一季定價活動的強勁勢頭對於實現或超越我們今年的定價預期非常令人鼓舞，根據我們業務的合約性質，我們全年定價影響的 80% 以上已經鎖定。

Page 3 shows the bridge for Solid Waste adjusted EBITDA margins compared to the first quarter of 2023. As anticipated, the change in commodity and fuel prices from the prior year served as a margin tailwind, whereas the net contribution of M&A and divestitures was a 20 basis point margin headwind versus the first quarter of 2023.

第3 頁顯示了與2023 年第一季相比，固體廢棄物調整後EBITDA 利潤率的橋樑。資產剝離的淨貢獻為20與 2023 年第一季相比，基點利潤率存在逆風。

Underlying solid waste margins expanded by 100 basis points, 50 basis points better than planned, a result that would have been even greater without the weather-related impacts. The flow-through benefits of the outsized price cost spread or intentional volume shedding initiatives, RNG contribution and incremental operating leverage coming from improving employee turnover and asset utilization, are exceeding expectations and reinforce our optimism and our ability to exceed the industry-leading organic margin expansion we included in our base guide for this year.

基礎固體廢棄物利潤率擴大了 100 個基點，比計劃好 50 個基點，如果沒有與天氣相關的影響，這一結果會更大。龐大的價格成本價差或有意減少銷售的舉措、RNG 貢獻以及來自改善員工流動率和資產利用率的增量營運槓桿帶來的流通效益超出了預期，增強了我們的樂觀情緒以及超越行業領先的有機利潤率的能力我們將擴展納入今年的基本指南中。

Page 4 highlights the performance of our Environmental Services segment in the quarter. To contextualize this year's performance, it is important to recall the prior year comparable periods on unseasonably high level of activity resulting in 25% organic revenue growth in that quarter. We had called out this outsized performance in our Q1 2023 reporting.

第 4 頁重點介紹了本季我們環境服務部門的業績。為了了解今年的業績，重要的是要回顧去年可比時期的異常高水準的活動，導致該季度有機收入成長 25%。我們在 2023 年第一季報告中指出了這種巨大的業績。

Normalizing the prior period for this outperformance, we saw over 10% top line revenue growth in this segment. Unusually cold weather in the south in January as well as the imposition of earlier spring road weight restrictions because of warmer weather in our northern markets that are typically implemented in the second quarter, negatively impacted volumes.

將上期的優異表現標準化後，我們發現該細分市場的營收成長超過 10%。一月份南方天氣異常寒冷，以及由於北方市場天氣變暖而實施的早春道路重量限制（通常在第二季度實施），都對銷量產生了負面影響。

The impacts on our southern markets alone impacted margins by over 100 basis points. The rollover impact of the fire we had at one of our facilities in late Q4 was a 20 basis point drag on ES margins. The timing of event-driven work and the sale of used motor oil also resulted in reduced revenue versus the prior year. The fact that we are exceeding our margin expectations in the face of these headwinds serves to highlight the quality of the underlying portfolio and our overall growth strategy for this segment.

僅對我們南方市場的影響就使利潤率下降了 100 個基點以上。第四季末，我們的一處工廠發生火災，導致 ES 利潤率下降 20 個基點。事件驅動工作的時間安排和廢機油的銷售也導致收入比前一年減少。面對這些不利因素，我們的利潤率超出了預期，這一事實凸顯了基礎投資組合的品質以及我們在該領域的整體成長策略。

Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $49 million, an increase of nearly $100 million over the prior year period and ahead of our internal expectations. The outperformance of adjusted EBITDA, a lower seasonal investment in working capital, and capital expenditures that were $25 million less than the plan, all contributed to the significant outperformance versus expectations.

本季調整後自由現金流為 4,900 萬美元，比上年同期增加近 1 億美元，超出了我們的內部預期。調整後的 EBITDA 表現優於預期、營運資本季節性投資減少以及資本支出比計劃少 2500 萬美元，所有這些都導致​​業績顯著優於預期。

We expect the working capital and CapEx variances to be timing differences and remain confident in our full year expectations for both of these line items. Page 5 summarizes reported net leverage, which was 4.3x on March 31, reflecting the impact of normal core seasonality and the change in FX rates from the start to the end of the quarter.

我們預計營運資金和資本支出差異將是時間差異，並對這兩個項目的全年預期保持信心。第 5 頁總結了報告的淨槓桿率，3 月 31 日為 4.3 倍，反映了正常核心季節性的影響以及從季度初到季度末匯率變化的影響。

During the quarter, we received a credit rating upgrade from S&P and remain on positive credit watch from both the rating agencies, reflecting the material improvement in our credit quality and the expectation for further improvement in the near term. As we previously said, we anticipate material credit rating upgrades prior to the maturity of most of our existing debt, providing an opportunity for near-term lower borrowing costs and improved free cash flow conversion.

本季度，我們獲得了標準普爾的信用評級升級，並繼續受到兩家評級機構的積極信用觀察，反映出我們信用品質的實質改善以及短期內進一步改善的預期。正如我們之前所說，我們預計在大部分現有債務到期之前，信用評級將大幅提升，從而為近期降低借貸成本和改善自由現金流轉換提供機會。

As Patrick said, we remain absolutely committed to our previously stated leverage targets. And with the strength of the first quarter performance, we are confident in our ability to achieve these targets exiting 2024 with net leverage between 3.65x and 3.85x.

正如帕特里克所說，我們仍然絕對致力於先前設定的槓桿目標。憑藉第一季的強勁表現，我們有信心能夠以 3.65 倍至 3.85 倍的淨槓桿率實現 2024 年的這些目標。

In terms of guidance, with the strength of this year's start, we're feeling highly confident in our ability to exceed our previously communicated targets. As Patrick said, the strength of the first quarter's margin performance allows us the confidence to increase our adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.23 billion. However, as Patrick noted and we've consistently said, there can often be timing shifts between the first and second quarters, so we will maintain our normal course practice of waiting until July before we formally update our full set of guidance for the year.

在指導方面，憑藉今年開局的強勁勢頭，我們對超越之前傳達的目標的能力充滿信心。正如帕特里克所說，第一季利潤率的強勁表現使我們有信心將調整後的 EBITDA 指引提高至 22.3 億美元。然而，正如帕特里克所指出的，也是我們一直所說的，第一季和第二季之間經常會出現時間變化，因此我們將維持正常的做法，等到 7 月才正式更新今年的全套指導。

Specifically related to the second quarter, we note the following: Consolidated revenue is expected to be approximately $2.055 billion, Solid waste revenues are expected to be $1.56 billion to $1.57 billion, driven by pricing just over 6% and volume is anticipated to improve approximately 50 basis points sequentially from the first quarter or approximately negative 2.5%.

具體與第二季相關，我們注意到以下幾點： 綜合收入預計約為 20.55 億美元，固體廢棄物收入預計為 15.6 億至 15.7 億美元，定價略高於 6%，銷量預計將增加約 50較第一季連續下降約2.5% 基點。

For Environmental Services, we expect to realize between $475 million and $500 million of revenue, representing another quarter of 10% growth over the prior year. The wider than typical revenue ranges within the segments are to account for the potential weather-driven pull forward of revenue into the first quarter from Q2.

對於環境服務，我們預計將實現 4.75 億至 5 億美元的收入，比前一年又成長 10%。該細分市場內比典型收入範圍更寬的原因是考慮到天氣驅動的收入可能從第二季提前到第一季。

In terms of margin, we expect consolidated adjusted EBITDA margins to accelerate over 300 basis points sequentially over the first quarter to just under 28.5% or nearly 70 basis points over Q2 2023. At the segment level, this assumes solid waste margins of 32% in the quarter to 32.5%. ES margins of almost flat with the prior year, around 29.6% and corporate margins of negative 3.2%.

就利潤率而言，我們預計第一季綜合調整後EBITDA 利潤率將連續成長300 個基點以上，至2023 年第二季略低於28.5%，即接近70 個基點。年固體廢棄物利潤率為32%。 ES 利潤率幾乎與前一年持平，約 29.6%，企業利潤率為負 3.2%。

The guide then contemplates further margin expansion in the third quarter before stepping down in the fourth quarter as per the typical cadence of the business. Putting that together, yields between $585 million and $590 million of adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter. Additionally, we expect $220 million to $230 million of net capital expenditures, $105 million of cash interest, and investment in working capital between $65 million and $75 million, and other operating items of approximately $25 million for Q2 adjusted free cash flow of approximately $160 million to $170 million.

然後，該指南考慮在第三季進一步擴大利潤率，然後根據業務的典型節奏在第四季度下調。總而言之，第二季調整後 EBITDA 收益在 5.85 億美元至 5.9 億美元之間。此外，我們預計淨資本支出為2.2 億至2.3 億美元，現金利息為1.05 億美元，營運資本投資為6,500 萬至7,500 萬美元，其他營運項目約為2,500 萬美元，第二季調整後自由現金流約1.6 億美元至 1.7 億美元。

In terms of net leverage, we expect a modest step up in Q2 as a result of seasonality and completed M&A and then to ratably step down in Q3 and Q4. Adjusted net income is expected to be approximately $100 million for the second quarter.

就淨槓桿率而言，我們預計由於季節性和併購完成，第二季淨槓桿率將小幅上升，然後第三季和第四季將大幅下降。第二季調整後淨利預計約 1 億美元。

I will now pass the call back to Patrick, who will provide some closing comments before Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉給帕特里克，他將在問答之前提供一些結束語。

Thanks, Luke. The drive of our employees to make our business better every day is evident in what we have achieved this quarter and the opportunities we are creating for steadily improving performance in the near and longer term. I want to thank each and every one of them for their dedicated contribution to Team Green.

謝謝，盧克。我們的員工每天都在努力讓我們的業務變得更好，這一點在我們本季度所取得的成就以及我們為近期和長期業績穩步提高而創造的機會中顯而易見。我要感謝他們每一個人為綠色團隊所做的奉獻。

As I've said on many of our calls, our focus has always been on delivering what we say we're going to do. This quarter is no exception. Our results for the quarter continue to demonstrate the underlying quality of our asset base and the impact of the effective and consistent implementation of our key value creation strategies. At the same time, the disciplined targeted growth investments we are making today are setting us up to deliver strong organic growth for many years to come.

正如我在許多電話會議中所說的那樣，我們的重點始終是兌現我們所說的要做的事情。本季也不例外。我們本季的業績繼續證明了我們資產基礎的基本品質以及有效和一致實施我們的關鍵價值創造策略的影響。同時，我們今天進行的嚴格的目標成長投資使我們能夠在未來許多年實現強勁的有機成長。

We have provided comprehensive, easy to follow guidance for the year, and we started off 2024 delivering on exactly what we said we were going to do. We intend to continue to do more of the same in the coming quarters.

我們為今年提供了全面、易於遵循的指導，並從 2024 年開始就準確地兌現了我們所說的要做的事情。我們打算在未來幾季繼續做更多同樣的事情。

I will now turn the call over to the operator to open the line for Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉給接線員，以開通問答線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Stephanie Moore from Jefferies.

我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Stephanie Moore。

Good morning. Thank you. To start, could you give us an update on this EPR. Patrick, you mentioned upside to the $80 million to $100 million of EBITDA. Where are you seeing the additional opportunities? And then what is the timing?

早安.謝謝。首先，您能為我們介紹一下此 EPR 的最新情況嗎？派翠克，您提到了 8000 萬至 1 億美元的 EBITDA 的好處。您在哪裡看到了額外的機會？那麼具體時間是什麼時候呢？

Yes. So I think as we discussed, the $80 million to $100 million of incremental EBITDA is in the bag today, signed, contracted, et cetera. As we said, there was a -- there's a few large particularly hauling and transfer contracts that were up for bid through late last year. We have been notified that we have been selected as a preferred vendor for the entire city of Toronto on the recycling side. It's not done as of yet, but we are in contract negotiations to finalize that and hope to have a very good update for you on our Q2 call.

是的。因此，我認為正如我們所討論的，8000 萬至 1 億美元的 EBITDA 增量今天已經囊括在內，已簽署、簽訂合約等等。正如我們所說，到去年年底，有一些大型的特別運輸和轉讓合約正在投標。我們已獲悉，我們已被選為整個多倫多市回收的首選供應商。目前尚未完成，但我們正在進行合約談判以最終確定，並希望在第二季的電話會議上為您提供非常好的最新消息。

As well, there's a multitude of other sort of residential contracts mostly the ones we're focused on is one we actually already currently do. And we expect that those will be awarded over the next sort of 3 to 4 months. So again, pretty good opportunity and upside from those. And as we look at the other provinces, Quebec and the Maritimes continue to release incremental bids and legislation continues to go through in Western Canada. But I think on the Q2 call, we'll give you sort of a very good update on where we stand with EPR. But very good news on our side that we would notify of being the preferred vendor for contract negotiations for the entire city of Toronto.

此外，還有許多其他類型的住宅合同，其中大部分是我們目前實際上已經在做的合約。我們預計這些將在未來 3 到 4 個月內授予。再說一次，這是一個很好的機會和好處。當我們看看其他省份時，魁北克省和濱海省繼續發布增量投標，加拿大西部的立法也在繼續進行。但我認為在第二季的電話會議上，我們將向您提供關於我們在 EPR 的最新進展。但對我們來說，這是一個好消息，我們將通知您成為整個多倫多市合約談判的首選供應商。

Got it. And that's helpful. And then as a follow-up, maybe Luke, free cash flow is much better than expected for the quarter, and it looks like you are seeing some improvements in working capital management. Where are you in that process? And kind of what are your expectations for working capital cadence for the remainder of the year?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後作為後續行動，也許盧克，本季度的自由現金流比預期要好得多，而且看起來您看到了營運資本管理方面的一些改進。在這個過程中你處於什麼位置？您對今年剩餘時間的營運資金節奏有何期望？

Yes. Thanks, Stephanie. It's a great question and certainly an area where we do see continued opportunity. I mean, for context, you got to remember, I mean, working capital with the levels of M&A we've done historically, sometimes you get impacts of that, that manifests in the working capital line and therefore, harder to sort of smooth that out over the 4 quarters as we now have the stability of the base business it allows for a more sort of regular cadence. So with the seasonality profile of our business, primarily in the northern markets, we're going to continue to see investments in the first half have been reversed in the second half.

是的。謝謝，斯蒂芬妮。這是一個很好的問題，而且我們確實在這個領域看到了持續的機會。我的意思是，就背景而言，你必須記住，我的意思是，營運資金與我們歷史上進行的併購水平相當，有時你會受到這種影響，這體現在營運資金線中，因此，更難平滑這一點由於我們現在基礎業務穩定，因此可以在 4 個季度內完成，因此可以有更多的定期節奏。因此，鑑於我們業務的季節性特徵（主要是在北方市場），我們將繼續看到上半年的投資在下半年出現逆轉。

However, as you can see in this quarter, the magnitude of the swing is becoming more and more muted. So it's going to allow for a much more predictable and stable free cash flow generation on sort of quarter-over-quarter basis, and you're seeing that in this quarter's results. So we do think this year's cadence will be similar. Q2, we'll see another investment, albeit at a lower level than historically, and then the reversals that we had customarily realized in Q3 and Q4 are expected as well.

然而，正如您在本季看到的那樣，波動幅度變得越來越小。因此，它將允許在季度與季度之間產生更可預測和穩定的自由現金流，您可以在本季度的業績中看到這一點。所以我們確實認為今年的節奏將會相似。第二季度，我們將看到另一筆投資，儘管水平低於歷史水平，然後我們通常在第三和第四季度實現的逆轉也是預期的。

We have our next question comes from Kevin Chiang from CIBC Wood Gundy.

我們的下一個問題來自 CIBC Wood Gundy 的 Kevin Jiang。

Maybe just on the rest of the M&A spend this year. I just want to make sure I have this correctly. So it looks like you spent just over $111 million in Q1, which doesn't look like it includes the Angelo acquisition, which I think on the last call, you suggested a sizable acquisition, it would be about half the expected spend this year. So it looks like about 2/3 -- if my math is correct, about 2/3 of the way through the $600 million to $650 million of M&A spend this year. Just wondering what if my math correct? And then two, just the visibility on spending the rest of that capital. Is that something we should expect in the second quarter here? Or does that kind of smooth out through the rest of the year, just given how active you feel through the -- I guess first 4 months of this year.

也許只是今年剩餘的併購支出。我只是想確保我正確地掌握了這個。因此，看起來您在第一季度花費了超過 1.11 億美元，其中似乎不包括對 Angelo 的收購，我認為在上次電話會議上，您建議進行大規模收購，大約是今年預期支出的一半。所以看起來大約是 2/3——如果我的計算正確的話，大約是今年 6 億至 6.5 億美元併購支出的 2/3。只是想知道如果我的數學正確怎麼辦？第二，就是花費剩餘資本的可見性。這是我們在第二季應該期待的事情嗎？或者，考慮到你在今年剩下的時間裡感覺如何活躍——我猜是今年的前四個月，這種情況是否會順利進行。

Yes. So I think we spent year-to-date about $500 million. So it leaves somewhere between $100 million, $150 million spend for the sort of rest of the year. I think you'll see some of that trickle in, in later Q2, and spread out through Q3 and early Q4, but I wouldn't expect it all to sort of be spent by the end of Q2, it's going to trickle into the next couple of quarters.

是的。所以我認為我們今年迄今花了大約 5 億美元。因此，今年剩餘時間的支出將在 1 億至 1.5 億美元之間。我認為你會在第二季後期看到其中的一些流入，並在第三季和第四季初擴散，但我不認為這一切會在第二季末花掉，它將流入接下來的幾個季度。

And Kevin, in terms of the financial statements, you have it right. Q1 saw 4 acquisitions closed, but Angelo is the largest and another were closed actually at the beginning of April. So it's in that year-to-date number that Patrick said. But within the quarter proper, you had the lower spend on just those 4 smaller acquisitions.

凱文，就財務報表而言，你說得對。第一季完成了 4 筆收購，但 Angelo 是最大的一筆，另一筆收購實際上是在 4 月初完成的。帕特里克說的是今年迄今為止的數字。但在本季內，您在這 4 項較小的收購上的支出較低。

That's helpful. And maybe just a second one for me. And I appreciate you'll provide a more fulsome update on the full year guide, when you report Q2 and you talked about some of the -- wanting to see some of the impact maybe on volumes shifting between Q1 and the second quarter here.

這很有幫助。也許對我來說只是第二個。我很感激您在報告第二季時提供有關全年指南的更全面的更新，並談到了一些可能對第一季和第二季之間銷售變化的影響。

But I guess when I look at it simplistically, you assumed a level of seasonality in Q1 in your previous guidance. If I apply that seasonality to what you actually printed in Q1, plus adding in some of this M&A, which you haven't included in your guidance, plus maybe a more favorable commodity price environment that you had assumed because you're pretty conservative there.

但我想，當我簡單地看待它時，您在先前的指導中假設了第一季的季節性水平。如果我將這種季節性應用於您在第一季實際印刷的內容，再加上一些併購（您沒有將其納入您的指導中），再加上您假設的更有利的商品價格環境，因為您在那裡相當保守。

I just look at a pretty sizable increase versus where you're sitting now, I'm sure you won't confirm this, but north of $2.3 billion of EBITDA this doesn't feel out of the normal possibility when I look at the puts and takes, maybe broad strokes, if there's anything you comment on that in terms of maybe that might be long or maybe where we might be right?

我只是看到與您現在所處的位置相比有相當大的增長，我相信您不會證實這一點，但在23 億美元的EBITDA 之上，當我查看看跌期權時，這並沒有感覺超出正常的可能性如果您對此有什麼評論的話，可能會很長，或者我們可能在哪裡是對的？

Without giving certainly formally updated guidance, you're heading in the right direction, I would say. But we're going to come out at the end of Q2, and we'll give updated guidance for the full year, including sort of the contribution from M&A and any other things that sort of pop up along the way, particularly as we get through the first half of the year and get a real trajectory of sort of volumes and where pricing is going to lie. But I think, Kevin, you're on the right path.

我想說，如果沒有給出明確的正式更新指導，你就朝著正確的方向前進。但我們將在第二季末發布，我們將提供全年的最新指導，包括併購的貢獻以及在此過程中出現的任何其他事情，特別是當我們得到整個上半年，了解銷量和定價的真實軌跡。但我認為，凱文，你走在正確的道路上。

I appreciate, it actually going to (inaudible) good results there.

我很欣賞，它實際上會帶來（聽不清楚）好的結果。

Our next question comes from Sabahat Khan from RBC Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Sabahat Khan。

I think you noted in the prepared remarks that labor turnover is trending lower and some of the other costs trending lower, improving EBITDA margin seem to be a bit of a trend we see in this reporting side, but you can maybe give a bit more detail on how much the labor turnover has improved. How do you expect that to turn to maybe the rest of the year? And maybe a bit more color on the repair and maintenance costs, et cetera, as well.

我認為您在準備好的發言中指出，勞動力流動率呈下降趨勢，其他一些成本呈下降趨勢，EBITDA 利潤率的提高似乎是我們在本報告方面看到的一種趨勢，但您也許可以提供更多細節勞動流動率改善了多少。您預計今年剩餘時間狀況會如何？也許還可以在維修和維護成本等方面多加一些色彩。

Yes. So I'll give it to Luke on a couple of others. But on the labor front, basically, like we said in sort of the peak of COVID, jobs market was really tight, labor voluntary turnover, particularly in the residential book of business was trending sort of closer to 30%. That dropped to sort of mid-20s last year and has trended to low 20s this year. Pre-COVID, we were in the high teens range. So we're getting significantly closer. Still some room to go, but it's certainly heading in the right direction, and you're seeing that flow through to the P&L, and you're definitely seeing that on the margin front.

是的。所以我會把其他幾個問題交給盧克。但在勞動力方面，基本上，就像我們在新冠疫情高峰期所說的那樣，就業市場非常緊張，勞動力自願流動，特別是在住宅業務方面，趨勢接近 30%。去年這個數字下降到了 20 左右，今年則趨向於 20 左右。在新冠疫情之前，我們處於十幾歲的範圍內。所以我們已經越來越接近了。雖然還有一些空間，但它肯定正在朝著正確的方向前進，你會看到它流向損益表，而且你肯定會在保證金方面看到這一點。

Yes. And then, Sabahat, it's Luke speaking. On R&M, I think it's a similar story in trend line that things are moving in the right direction. I mean if you look for the quarter, R&M was about 10.3% of revenue. Now that was flat with Q4, but being achieved on the seasonally lower Q1 revenues, right? So if you think of how that then rolls forward with the revenue upticks and the improved efficiency in R&M. We see a path to that going back into the sort of single digit as you get into the middle of the year and probably ending the year in the mid- to higher 9s level.

是的。然後，Sabahat，是路克在說話。在 R&M 方面，我認為趨勢線上的情況類似，事情正在朝著正確的方向發展。我的意思是，如果你看看這個季度，R&M 約佔收入的 10.3%。現在，這與第四季度持平，但這是在第一季營收季節性下降的情況下實現的，對嗎？因此，如果您考慮如何隨著收入的成長和 R&M 效率的提高而向前發展。我們看到，當進入年中時，這一數字將回到個位數，並可能在年底達到 9 左右的水平。

So I think there's still some conservatism in that number and the improvements that we're seeing across the business should drive incremental opportunity there. So we're feeling really good with how that trend line is moving.

因此，我認為這個數字仍然有些保守，我們在整個業務中看到的改進應該會推動那裡的增量機會。所以我們對趨勢線的移動感覺非常好。

Okay. Great. And then maybe if I can tease out on Patrick's comments around the Toronto recycling contract. I know you said you're still in contract negotiations. But any big picture parameters around kind of the scale, directional margins for this business versus the base business under the EPR regime. Just anything you can share even at a high level to give us a perspective on what this could mean or what it could look like.

好的。偉大的。然後也許我可以梳理一下帕特里克對多倫多回收合約的評論。我知道你說過你仍在進行合約談判。但是，圍繞該業務與 EPR 制度下的基本業務的規模、方向性利潤的任何總體參數。您可以分享的任何內容，甚至是高層的內容，都可以讓我們了解這可能意味著什麼或它可能會是什麼樣子。

Yes. I mean it will be -- it will be -- keep in mind, we do 60% of the work already today, 40% of the work is being done by others, mostly city workers. The contract value will be in excess of $50 million a year. I think at sort of margins accretive to what our blended margin is today for solid waste.

是的。我的意思是，這將是——將會是——記住，我們今天已經完成了 60% 的工作，40% 的工作是由其他人完成的，其中大部分是城市工人。每年的合約價值將超過5000萬美元。我認為，在某種程度上，我們的固體廢棄物混合利潤會增加。

That's $50 million to EBITDA?

EBITDA 為 5000 萬美元？

No. $50 million of revenue, in excess of $50 million of revenue. It's a 10-year contract. So it's going to be over $0.5 billion a year or $0.5 billion in aggregate, over 10 years.

No. 5000萬美元的收入，超過5000萬美元的收入。這是一份為期10年的合約。因此，每年將超過 5 億美元，或 10 年內總計將超過 5 億美元。

Our next question comes from Jerry Revich from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

I'm wondering if you could just talk about the acquisitions that you completed year-to-date, since they're all within your footprint. Can you just give us a flavor for the extent of route consolidation opportunities? How many more stops per truck do you expect post integration? Just give us a feel for how accretive these opportunities are (inaudible) to the existing route base in your markets, if you don't mind?

我想知道您是否可以談談您今年迄今完成的收購，因為它們都在您的足跡之內。能為我們介紹一下航線整合機會的範圍嗎？您預計整合後每輛卡車還會停靠多少次？如果您不介意的話，請讓我們感受一下這些機會對您所在市場的現有航線基礎有多大的增值（聽不清楚）？

Yes. Thanks, Jerry. It's a key component of our whole sort of M&A strategy as you're doing these densifying tuck-ins, getting the efficiency that you're speaking to. Unfortunately, the small population, there's 6 transactions, 1 larger one, Angela, you've got 5 little small tuck-in. It's going to be widely varied by market and by region, what that opportunity sort of looks like.

是的。謝謝，傑瑞。這是我們整個併購策略的關鍵組成部分，因為您正在進行這些緻密的整合，獲得您所說的效率。不幸的是，人口很少，有 6 筆交易，1 筆較大的交易，安琪拉，你有 5 筆小錢。機會的具體情況會因市場和地區的不同而有很大差異。

But you're thinking about it the exact right way that from buying a business today that's operating 8 or 9 trucks in a market where we're operating significantly more than that. There's probably an opportunity to park 1, 2, 3 trucks, depending on the sort of density. So what we've historically said is on these smaller acquisitions that may be on the face of it, if you're paying somewhere between sort of 6 to 8x for a small one on a pre-synergy basis, post the synergies, you might be able to take anywhere from 2 to 3 turns of cost out of that business by virtue of those cost savings from the reconsolidation facility consolidation, headcount consolidation, et cetera. So it does vary for these specific deals. I'd say they're no different than typical. So you're probably going to be in that range. But that's how we typically think about the M&A on the tuck-in nature.

但你現在的思考方式是完全正確的，從今天購買一家在我們運營的市場上運營 8 或 9 輛卡車的企業來看，我們的運營數量遠遠超過了這一數字。可能有機會停放 1、2、3 輛卡車，具體取決於密度。因此，我們歷來所說的是，對於這些規模較小的收購，從表面上看，如果您在協同效應之前為小型收購支付 6 到 8 倍的費用，發布協同效應，您可能會憑藉重新整合設施整合、員工整合等所節省的成本，能夠將該業務的成本節省2 到3 個回合。因此，這些特定交易的情況確實有所不同。我想說它們與典型的沒有什麼不同。所以你可能會在這個範圍內。但這就是我們通常對隱藏性質的併購的看法。

And in terms of the additional acquisitions that you have in the pipeline for the balance of the year, it sounds like it's the same opportunity we're going to have an outsized benefit from consolidation since it's all going to be within the existing footprint. So the M&A pipeline sounds like it's going to come with higher synergies. And obviously, in the past, it's been a combination of these type of acquisition engine building up footprint, but correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like we're going to see outsized synergy opportunities with the pipeline that you have planned. .

就今年餘下的時間裡正在進行的額外收購而言，這聽起來像是我們將從整合中獲得巨大利益的同樣機會，因為這一切都將在現有的足跡之內。因此，併購管道聽起來會帶來更高的綜效。顯然，在過去，這是這些類型的收購引擎的組合，建立了足跡，但如果我錯了，請糾正我，但聽起來我們將看到與您計劃的管道產生巨大的協同機會。 。

Yes. They're all in the existing footprint. Again, going back to opportunities, like Luke said, the consolidate sort of SG&A costs, consolidate hauling facilities, move those trucks onto our existing routes and really focused around markets where we have underutilized post-collection assets, whether that's recycling, facilities, transportations, landfills, to drive incremental volumes for those facilities that we're not getting which is going to just yield exceptional sort of ROIC investments that we're making.

是的。它們都在現有的足跡中。再次回到機會，就像盧克所說，整合SG&A成本，整合運輸設施，將這些卡車轉移到我們現有的路線上，並真正關注我們未充分利用回收後資產的市場，無論是回收、設施還是運輸、垃圾掩埋場，以增加我們沒有獲得的設施的數量，這只會產生我們正在進行的特殊投資回報投資。

And Jerry, just in terms of the specific modeling, we typically think and see that initially, these businesses are getting incorporated at margin decretive levels right, just the normal course sort of pre-synergies. And then it's with over those first sort of 6, 9 to 12 months, depending on the market and the business where you then take them up to the accretive margins for the reasons you articulated.

傑瑞，就具體模型而言，我們通常認為並看到，最初，這些業務是在利潤率水平上合併的，這只是協同前的正常過程。然後是在最初的 6、9 到 12 個月內，具體取決於市場和業務，然後您根據您所闡述的原因將其提高到增值利潤。

Super. Can I ask you on a separate topic, Landfill gas heading into the election, I'm wondering are you folks thinking about locking in any of the gas that you have coming online on long-term contracts? Or are you happy to bring it online with the RIN market structures? Any updated thoughts on what the voluntary market looks like as well, if you wouldn't mind.

極好的。我可以問你們一個單獨的話題嗎？或者您是否樂意將其與 RIN 市場結構一起上線？如果您不介意的話，還有關於自願市場的任何最新想法。

Yes. I mean, things keep continuing to trend in the right direction. From our perspective, we're still selling into the transportation market today, particularly, our partners at BP and OPAL continue to see that the best way to maximize value today. Although we are seeing the voluntary market prices continue to trend up to the point now where they're exceeding mid-20s per MMBtu and heading closer to $30 per MMBtu. So I think you will see that some of our facilities come online, we're going to start looking to enter into those longer-term contracts for a portion of the gas.

是的。我的意思是，事情繼續朝著正確的方向發展。從我們的角度來看，我們今天仍在向運輸市場銷售產品，特別是我們的 BP 和 OPAL 合作夥伴仍然認為這是當今最大化價值的最佳方式。儘管我們看到自願市場價格繼續上漲，目前已超過每 MMBtu 20 多美元，並接近每 MMBtu 30 美元。因此，我認為您會看到我們的一些設施已上線，我們將開始尋求簽訂部分天然氣的長期合約。

Our next question comes from Michael Hoffman from Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Michael Hoffman。

Thank you very much. Good morning, Patrick, Luke, just so we prevent everybody from getting your numbers too high. If you spend $500 million, you probably bought between $160 million and $170 million of revenues at 25% margins. You got to layer it in for 8 or 9 months and then you walk them up into 2025, but that's the walk up just so we don't get ahead of ourselves.

非常感謝。早安，派崔克、路克，我們只是為了防止大家把你們的數字弄得太高。如果您花費 5 億美元，您可能會以 25% 的利潤率購買 1.6 億至 1.7 億美元的收入。你必須將其分層 8 或 9 個月，然後逐步推進到 2025 年，但這只是為了避免我們超前。

Well, before we start, Michael, I want to -- first, I want to say thank you to you because I know this is going to be your last call with us, and I think you've done in this industry a great service for a long number of years, and you've certainly been a very big help to watch of the company, particularly as we navigated going public over number of years. So I wanted to say thank you, not only from GFL but for the rest of the industry for everything you've done for the industry because you've been a very big champion of the industry for each and every one of us as companies and I think we owe you a big thank you for all you've done for the industry over the last number of years. And with that, I'll turn it over to Luke who can walk you through.

好吧，在我們開始之前，邁克爾，我想——首先，我想對你說聲謝謝，因為我知道這將是你最後一次給我們打電話，我認為你在這個行業做出了偉大的服務多年來，您對公司的關注確實提供了很大的幫助，特別是在我們多年來引導上市的過程中。所以我想說謝謝你們，不僅是GFL，還有整個行業的其他人，感謝你們為這個行業所做的一切，因為對於我們每個公司和每個人來說，你們都是這個行業的一個非常重要的冠軍。接下來，我會將其交給盧克，他可以引導您完成整個過程。

Michael, I echo everything that Patrick just said. So thank you and wishing you all the best of luck in your future endeavors, but look forward to catching up next week as well. On the specific M&A, what I'd say, Michael, is while the math you suggested would be normal in a typical GFL year this year with Angelo's, it's a little bit got skewed because a disproportion amount of the dollars are going to one large vertically integrated asset. So what we said is for the $500 million, we actually got $100 million of revenue.

邁克爾，我同意派崔克剛才所說的一切。謝謝您，並祝福您在未來的努力中一切順利，但也期待下週的進展。關於具體的併購，邁克爾，我想說的是，雖然你建議的數學在今年安吉洛的典型 GFL 年度中是正常的，但它有點扭曲，因為不成比例的美元將流向一大筆資金。的資產。所以我們說的是5億美元，我們實際上得到了1億美元的收入。

Now the margin profile because so much of it is coming out of a large vertically integrated is much greater than typical. And so that's closer to a 40% number. And with that, though, the basis of what the math you are doing is absolutely right. So if you bought call it, $40 million of EBITDA, and you got that sort of 3 quarters of the way through the year. The contribution in the year would be in that sort of 30% kind of range, and that is the building block as it relates to M&A. And then incremental M&A will have incremental contribution. And then other points Kevin was highlighting, commodity and other tailwinds are real. But as we all know, there will be headwinds, so we can't only count the good guys. But you're absolutely right. It's more of the 2025 that you'll get the full year benefit of all of that M&A spend plus the synergies.

現在，由於大部分利潤來自大型垂直整合，因此利潤率遠高於典型水平。所以這個數字接近 40%。儘管如此，你所做的數學基礎是絕對正確的。因此，如果您購買了 4000 萬美元的 EBITDA，那麼您全年的 3 個季度就獲得了這樣的收益。今年的貢獻將在 30% 的範圍內，這是與併購相關的基石。那麼增量併購就會有增量貢獻。凱文強調的其他觀點是，大宗商品和其他有利因素是真實存在的。但眾所周知，總會有逆風，所以我們不能只期待好人。但你是絕對正確的。到 2025 年，您將獲得所有併購支出加上綜效的全年收益。

Okay. So thank you very much for those kind comments, that was unexpected and very kind of you. Following up, working capital, we should still presume it to use because you're still growing the company. It's just going to be less of the use than it has been because you're getting better managing it. Is that the right way to think.

好的。非常感謝您的善意評論，這是出乎意料的，而且非常友善。接下來，營運資金，我們仍然應該假設它可以使用，因為你仍在發展公司。只是它的用途會比以前少一些，因為你會更好地管理它。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

I think that's right. You got to remember, like the volumetric shedding that's been done on some what we call bad revenue, sometimes bad revenues coming from bad customers, right? And so around the edges, that helps. And then just the broader improvement. It's been hard to optimize the shift as you were growing at the rate at which we were. And as we now have stability we're able to pull the levers that our peers have already done to optimize in those areas. And so we still think there is opportunity, for instance, within our DSO and we will continue to drive after that, which we'll see a recovery of that investment and will help offset what the normal course growth would be associated with the organic growth. But you're thinking about it exactly right.

我認為這是對的。你必須記住，就像我們所說的不良收入所造成的體積減少，有時不良收入來自不良客戶，對嗎？所以在邊緣，這很有幫助。然後是更廣泛的改進。由於您以我們的速度成長，因此很難優化這種轉變。由於我們現在已經穩定了，因此我們能夠利用同行已經採取的措施來優化這些領域。因此，我們仍然認為存在機會，例如，在我們的 DSO 內部，我們將在此之後繼續推動，我們將看到投資的復甦，並將有助於抵消與有機增長相關的正常增長。但你的想法是完全正確的。

Okay. And then to that end, you have had a lot of self-help opportunities just because where you are in your life cycle, whether it's automation in residential or CNG on the trucks or digital in the cab. Can we talk about what inning you are in that and how that kind of reflects back to your comments you made about your working capital.

好的。為此，您有很多自助機會，只是因為您處於生命週期的哪個階段，無論是住宅自動化、卡車 CNG 還是駕駛室數位化。我們可以談談您處於哪一局，以及這如何反映您對營運資金的評論。

Yes. I think where we're sort of sitting today, we do have a lot of self-help opportunities. I mean, a for 2024, again, rolling out 3,500 tablets into our commercial trucks, being able to capture all sort of incremental charges from locked bins to overweight bins is a big thing that we're focused on. I think that's the biggest piece in the sort of low-hanging fruit, and we're in process of doing that. Again, continued fleet conversion to CNG, I would say, is going to be the next biggest wave over the next couple of years, particularly on the back of a bunch of the EPR contract that we're sort of looking to execute on and the lion's share of those trucks will be converted over to CNG. .

是的。我認為我們今天所處的位置確實有很多自助機會。我的意思是，到 2024 年，我們將再次向我們的商用卡車投放 3,500 台平板電腦，能夠捕獲從上鎖垃圾箱到超重垃圾箱的所有增量費用是我們關注的一件大事。我認為這是最容易實現的目標，我們正在這樣做。我想說，繼續將船隊轉換為 CNG 將是未來幾年的下一個最大浪潮，特別是在我們希望執行的一系列 EPR 合約以及這些卡車的大部分將轉換為壓縮天然氣。 。

I think we were sort of low teens previously. Now if you look at the fleet sort of high teens on CNG. And as we said, we have a goal -- stated goal of getting that to sort of 45% to 50% of the overall fleet. And then again, as we said on our previous call, we are -- we still have about $150 million of revenue that's in sort of low-margin residential contracts for the most part.

我想我們以前都是青少年。現在，如果你看看 CNG 上的車隊。正如我們所說，我們有一個目標——明確的目標是使其佔整個機隊的 45% 到 50%。話又說回來，正如我們在之前的電話會議上所說，我們仍然有大約 1.5 億美元的收入，其中大部分來自低利潤住宅合約。

And as we said, we're looking to exit some of that revenue or you sell it to a local competitor in a local market that we'll do better for. And I think all of those together help sort of what the capital allocation program will happen, what the margin profile -- help with the margin profile and just continue with putting us on the right trajectory to continue moving forward.

正如我們所說，我們希望退出部分收入，或將其出售給當地市場的當地競爭對手，我們會做得更好。我認為所有這些共同有助於資本配置計劃的實施、利潤率狀況——幫助改善利潤率狀況，並繼續讓我們走上正確的軌道，繼續前進。

Okay. Last one for me is, and I applaud that you're giving a level of detail in the 90-day view. But I back up and go, that means you are having a much greater confidence in the ability to see where the model is going. What can you attribute over the last year or 2 that has given you the one the confidence to do it that as you turn this consolidation story into an ongoing operating company. What do you -- what would you point to specifically that gives you that confidence to be able to do that 90-day view.

好的。對我來說最後一個問題是，我很欣賞您在 90 天的視圖中提供了一定程度的細節。但我後退並繼續，這意味著您對了解模型走向的能力更有信心。在過去的一兩年裡，當您將這個整合故事轉變為持續營運的公司時，是什麼讓您有信心做到這一點？你會具體指出什麼，讓你有信心實現 90 天的觀點。

Well, I think if you look at the business and how it's come together, right, like there hasn't been -- there wasn't a year for the first sort of 14 or 15 years of our (inaudible) that we weren't growing at north of a sort of 30% to 40% CAGR. Obviously, with the higher rates for longer narrative, leverage, particularly in the public markets became sort of a mild focus of ours. And again, with the committed goal of us and sustaining goal of moving leverage into the sort of mid 3s. Again, that's allowed us to take our foot off the M&A gas pedal. And I think if you look historically at what the business has done, I mean there's -- we've been pretty sort of muted on the M&A front for the last sort of 1.5 years.

好吧，我想如果你看看這個業務以及它是如何整合在一起的，對吧，就像以前沒有一樣——我們（聽不清楚）的第一個14 或15 年裡沒有一年是我們「北部的複合年增長率為 30% 至 40%。顯然，隨著較長敘述的利率較高，槓桿率，特別是在公開市場上，成為我們關注的焦點。再說一遍，我們的承諾目標和持續目標是將槓桿率提高到 3 左右。這再次讓我們能夠把腳從併購油門上移開。我認為，如果你從歷史上看該公司所做的事情，我的意思是，在過去的 1.5 年裡，我們在併購方面一直相當沉默。

And I think you get the true picture of what the operating power is of this business because there hasn't been a huge amount of M&A. So the story has been pretty easy to follow. Our operators are sort of just managing their existing book of businesses without M&A. So the confidence we have in the forecasting, et cetera, is what you're seeing today, and I think you're going to continue to see for the future. And even as we sort of get that leverage to a level where the lion's share of investors want and particularly in an interest rate environment like we're in today, I think the business is just now of the size and scale that M&A is really just a modest contribution and just a real part of sort of the growth algorithm, but it's not going to be the part of the growth algorithm that's front and center.

我認為您可以真實了解該業務的營運能力，因為並沒有進行大量併購。所以這個故事很容易理解。我們的營運商只是管理他們現有的業務，沒有進行併購。因此，我們對預測等充滿信心，這就是你們今天所看到的，我認為你們將繼續看到未來。即使我們將槓桿率提高到了大多數投資者想要的水平，特別是在像我們今天這樣的利率環境下，我認為業務現在的規模和規模實際上只是併購而已貢獻不大，只是增長算法的一個真實部分，但它不會成為成長演算法中最重要和中心的部分。

Okay. Thank you very much. And thank you again for the kind words, and I'll see you Sunday.

好的。非常感謝。再次感謝您的客氣話，週日見。

Our next question comes from Patrick Tyler Brown from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的帕特里克·泰勒·布朗。

Yes, very formal introduction . So I think you guys have a debt tower that's coming up next year. I know your credit quality is improving, but just based on where you are today, do you think that refinancing that 25 towers is going to improve cash interest headwind next year?

是的，非常正式的介紹。所以我認為你們明年將會出現一座債務高塔。我知道您的信用品質正在改善，但僅根據您今天的情況，您認為為 25 座塔樓進行再融資會改善明年的現金利息逆風嗎？

Yes. So Tyler, you're right. There's about $1.2 billion across 2 bonds that come up next summer, they currently carry a blended coupon of about sort of 4.25%, 4.3%. If you're redoing that today, you're probably more in the mid- to high 6s is what you've been seeing. So there's certainly an incremental headline cash interest cost on that. However, where we have an opportunity from some structuring perspectives, the existing bonds that you would be refinancing are domiciled in Canada, whereas you'd be issuing the new ones out of a U.S. entity thereby providing meaningful cash tax shield, right, because we're becoming a bigger cash taxpayer in the U.S.

是的。所以泰勒，你是對的。明年夏天將發行兩種債券，總金額約 12 億美元，目前它們的混合票面利率約為 4.25%、4.3%。如果您今天重做，您可能會看到，您的成績可能會更接近 6 分。因此，這肯定會增加總體現金利息成本。然而，從某些結構角度來看，我們有機會再融資的現有債券在加拿大註冊，而您將從美國實體發行新債券，從而提供有意義的現金稅盾，對吧，因為我們正在成為美國較大的現金納稅人

And so net-net, on the free cash flow line, the cash tax savings would largely offset the interest cost and so you have a reclass or gross up on the actual line items, but net-net, your free cash number would be a pretty de minimis impact.

因此，在自由現金流線上，現金稅節省將在很大程度上抵消利息成本，因此您可以對實際行項目進行重新分類或總計，但淨額，您的自由現金數量將是相當小的影響。

Yes. Okay. Excellent. That's very, very helpful. And then, Patrick, can we get some high-level thoughts on GIP. Can you maybe run down some of the end year financials, just how it was tracking in terms of EBITDA and leverage? And just any thoughts about monetization there?

是的。好的。出色的。這非常非常有幫助。然後，派崔克，我們可以得到一些關於 GIP 的高層想法嗎？您能否列出一些年終財務數據，看看它在 EBITDA 和槓桿方面的追蹤情況如何？關於貨幣化有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. I mean as we stated last year, again, that business experienced headwinds just from the run-up in sort of the inflationary environment. As we're coming on the backside of that, what's largely through this year will be through, and we'll be getting sort of back to where we anticipated that business would be. But I would say, this year, low 200s from an EBITDA level without M&A. That business, again, today is sort of running 12.5% to 13% margins. We expect it to go to sort of 15% over the coming -- over the course of next year.

是的。我的意思是，正如我們去年再次指出的那樣，企業在通膨環境的推動下經歷了逆風。當我們回到這一點時，今年的大部分事情都會過去，我們將回到我們預期的業務狀況。但我想說，今年，在沒有併購的情況下，EBITDA 水平低了 200 多美元。如今，該業務的利潤率再次達到 12.5% 至 13%。我們預計在接下來的一年裡，這一比例將達到 15%。

Leverage sort of in the mid-5s as a private company. But again, we have a couple of interesting sort of M&A opportunities that will get done in that business as well. But again, nothing has changed from what my -- I believe the thesis to be, we'll grow that business, and expected sort of $1 billion of equity value that will come out of that. I would assume, as we can -- we'll just look at market opportunities.

作為一家私人公司，槓桿率在 5 歲左右。但同樣，我們還有一些有趣的併購機會，這些機會也將在該業務中完成。但同樣，我的觀點沒有任何改變——我相信我們將發展該業務，並預計由此產生 10 億美元的股權價值。我認為，我們會盡可能地關注市場機會。

As you know, there's been a real run-up in valuations in that sector, particularly with CRA sort of listing now in the U.S., coupled together with Lafarge separating their European and the North American business. Other comps like road, all of those have had a pretty good runs over the last little while. So I think the thesis is only getting better and time has been our friend, and we'll continue to be our friend, but we want to optimize the value of that. But I think that's a late '25, '26 type event where we look at that. And again, I'm not led to any sort of exit in that. I mean from our perspective, it's really a triple track process, whether it's an IPO, whether that's a financial sponsor, just given the perfect size of that for financial sponsors today, or whether that's strategic, but I think there's a lot of opportunity for exit in that. We just -- we want to get it to the right number and get the equity value where we want it.

如您所知，該行業的估值確實有所上升，特別是現在 CRA 在美國上市，加上拉法基將其歐洲和北美業務分開。其他比賽，如公路比賽，在過去一段時間都取得了不錯的成績。所以我認為這篇論文只會變得更好，時間一直是我們的朋友，我們將繼續成為我們的朋友，但我們希望優化它的價值。但我認為這是 25 世紀末、26 世紀末類型的事件，我們會對此進行研究。再說一遍，我並沒有因此而退出。我的意思是，從我們的角度來看，這確實是一個三軌流程，無論是首次公開募股，無論是財務贊助商，還是考慮到當今財務贊助商的完美規模，或者這是否是戰略性的，但我認為有很多機會退出那個。我們只是 - 我們希望將其達到正確的數字並獲得我們想要的股權價值。

Perfect. And then my last one here. So there's been a lot of movement on PFAS in the U.S. But I'm just curious, has there been any -- has anything happened in Canada, similar I just don't really know. And I'm just curious how you view PFAS in your ES lens. Is that something that is within or outside of the scope of your ES business? And could that be an opportunity longer term?

完美的。然後是我在這裡的最後一個。美國針對 PFAS 採取了很多行動，但我很好奇，加拿大是否也發生過類似的情況，我真的不知道。我只是好奇你如何看待 ES 鏡頭中的 PFAS。這是在您的 ES 業務範圍之內還是之外？長遠來看，這會是一個機會嗎？

I would say lots of chatter as the chatter picks up in the U.S. but nothing specific in Canada at the moment. Obviously, the legislation that is being proposed was actually I think in line with what we believe is going to happen, I think there's still some more room to go. But at the end of the day, landfills are not the generator of this. They're a solution to the problem or passive receivers as materials.

我想說的是，隨著美國的討論增多，目前有很多討論，但目前加拿大沒有什麼具體的討論。顯然，我認為正在提議的立法實際上與我們認為將要發生的情況一致，我認為還有更多的空間。但歸根究底，垃圾掩埋場並不是這個問題的根源。它們是問題的解決方案或作為材料的被動接收器。

So I think that's going to continue to play out in our ES business. Yes, a big part of what we're looking at is different technologies. As we know everybody thinks they have the solution to PFAS. But at the end of the day, what solution is going to work and how economically is it going to work and et cetera. So we've -- we are in discussions with a multitude of companies that I think where you either sort of looking to acquire or partner with to create a sort of solution to the PFAS issue that we're going to be -- everyone is going to be having to dealing with in the near future.

所以我認為這將繼續在我們的 ES 業務中發揮作用。是的，我們關注的很大一部分是不同的技術。據我們所知，每個人都認為他們有 PFAS 的解決方案。但歸根結底，什麼樣的解決方案會起作用以及它的經濟性如何等等。因此，我們正在與眾多公司進行討論，我認為你們要么尋求收購，要么與之合作，為我們將要解決的 PFAS 問題創建某種解決方案——每個人都在不久的將來將不得不處理。

But fundamentally, Tyler, I mean our perspective would be in the long run, PFAS will be a tailwind for price and volume for our business. And so the exact sort of form in which that shapes out remains to be seen, but we're feeling optimistic that this is ultimately going to be an opportunity for us across both our solid and liquid waste segments on a price and volume perspective.

但從根本上講，泰勒，我的意思是，從長遠來看，PFAS 將成為我們業務價格和銷售的推動力。因此，具體的形式仍有待觀察，但我們樂觀地認為，從價格和數量的角度來看，這最終將成為我們固體和液體廢物領域的一個機會。

Our next question comes from Michael Doumet from Scotiabank.

我們的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Michael Doumet。

I wanted to get back to the guidance. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the initial expectation was that margin expansion would increase as the year progressed. So can you comment on whether that margin cadence still stands? Obviously, outside the comments regarding the pull forward.

我想回到指導。如果我錯了，請糾正我，但我相信最初的預期是隨著時間的推移，利潤率擴張將會增加。那麼您能否評論一下這種利潤率節奏是否仍然存在？顯然，在有關拉動的評論之外。

Yes. I think that's absolutely right, Michael. It's a first half, second half story. I mean, within H1, as we're articulating, the outperformance in Q1 may sort of eat into what was the otherwise expansion expected in Q2, but absolutely, I mean if you look at the sort of cadence that's being expected in the original guide, I don't think that has changed. And with the strength of Q1 performance, we think maybe that gets a little bit better.

是的。我認為這是完全正確的，邁克爾。這是前半部，後半部的故事。我的意思是，正如我們所闡述的那樣，在上半年內，第一季度的優​​異表現可能會侵蝕第二季度預期的擴張，但絕對，我的意思是如果你看看原始指南中預期的那種節奏，我認為這沒有改變。隨著第一季表現的強勁，我們認為情況可能會好一點。

And so we set out this year with a guide that from our perspective, I think, had industry-leading organic growth as the impact from M&A was muted and was therefore all organic. And where we're sitting today, if you're reading the tea leaves, I think we're teeing up, that's going to be better than initially anticipated, exactly how much remains to be seen, and we look forward to updating you on that in July. But that cadence, everything is looking as expected, just perhaps a little bit better.

因此，我們今年制定了一份指南，從我們的角度來看，我認為該指南具有領先業界的有機成長，因為併購的影響力微弱，因此完全是有機的。今天我們坐的位置，如果您正在閱讀茶葉，我認為我們正在準備，這將比最初預期的要好，具體還有多少有待觀察，我們期待為您提供最新情況七月份的那個。但按照這種節奏，一切看起來都如預期，只是可能好一點。

Makes sense. And then you talked about the sustainability of the strong start to price in a year. How are unit costs tracking versus your initial expectation?

說得通。然後您談到了一年內強勁的價格開局的可持續性。單位成本追蹤與您最初的預期相比如何？

I'd say they're right in line. I mean when we look at labor, I mean labor is still 5% plus number and you're putting it all together, you got cost inflation in the sort of mid- to high 5s., but it's stepping down as you're comping the tougher quarters. And as all of the other disruption, whether it be fleet replacement, et cetera, is getting better. .

我想說他們是對的。我的意思是，當我們考慮勞動力時，我的意思是勞動力仍然是 5% 以上，你把它們放在一起，成本通脹在 5 左右，但隨著你的比較，它正在下降。 。隨著所有其他幹擾，無論是機隊更換等，都在好轉。 。

So we're feeling that price/cost spread that we articulated in the year that could be upwards of 150 basis points, we're feeling good on that. Look, I don't think this is going to be a year with the way cost inflation is moderating that we're going to have to go back to the pricing lever as frequently as we've done maybe in the past 24 months and therefore, yield a materially different pricing outcome.

因此，我們認為今年我們提出的價格/成本利差可能會超過 150 個基點，我們對此感覺良好。聽著，我認為今年成本通膨不會放緩，我們將不得不像過去 24 個月那樣頻繁地回歸定價槓桿，因此，產生實質上不同的定價結果。

I think the cost -- unit cost inflation appears to be moving as anticipated, and therefore, pricing guide will be as anticipated. I think you got to remember, I mean, I said in the prepared remarks, like 80% plus of this year's pricing activity is already done, right? And that's just a function of the rollover from prior year and the weighted average of Q1 pricing activity being the lion's share for the year.

我認為成本——單位成本通膨似乎正在按預期變化，因此，定價指南將如預期。我想你必須記住，我的意思是，我在準備好的發言中說過，今年的定價活動 80% 以上已經完成，對嗎？這只是上一年展期的函數，而第一季定價活動的加權平均值佔今年的最大份額。

So we're feeling really good on the spread, which is ultimately what we're trying to manage as we've demonstrated before, if the unit cost changes expectations, we'll revisit the pricing initiatives. But right now, we're feeling really good on how those trends are playing out.

因此，我們對價差感覺非常好，這最終是我們想要管理的，正如我們之前所證明的那樣，如果單位成本改變預期，我們將重新審視定價措施。但現在，我們對這些趨勢的發展感覺非常好。

Perfect, and then maybe just to sneak one in. Just on the working capital management. I think I understand the improvement there. It doesn't sound so much structural in the sense that you're getting less working cap and more that you're smoothing things out from a seasonal perspective. But as we look to kind of future years as well, that's smoothing out. That doesn't go away, it might actually even get better.

完美，然後也許只是偷偷溜進去。我想我理解那裡的改進。從季節性角度來看，你得到的工作上限越來越少，而更多的是你在平滑事情，這聽起來並不是那麼結構性的。但當我們展望未來幾年時，這種情況正在趨於平穩。這種情況不會消失，甚至可能會變得更好。

Yes, I think that's right. I mean if you look at the extent of the swings that we've historically had, like I think last year, the H1 investment was just under $200 million, and then you recover all of that in H2, right? And that's just with the seasonal profile and ramp of the revenues.

是的，我認為這是對的。我的意思是，如果你看看我們歷史上的波動程度，就像我去年認為的那樣，上半年的投資略低於 2 億美元，然後你會在下半年收回所有投資，對嗎？這也只是考慮到季節性情況和收入成長。

This year, the way we're teeing it up now is that each one investment is going to be just over $100 million, right? So I think $120 million is what we've sort of alluded to in the guide there. So material improvement over last year. Again, for the year as a whole, you're still netting out to roughly the sort of same place, but just tempering the volatility, if you will, of the investments. Part of it is by the changing business mix, more and more business in the Southeastern U.S. where they have a different seasonality profile, it's certainly sort of helpful.

今年，我們現在準備的方式是，每項投資將略高於 1 億美元，對吧？所以我認為 1.2 億美元是我們在指南中提到的。所以比去年有實質的進步。同樣，就全年而言，您的淨額仍大致相同，但如果您願意的話，只是緩和投資的波動性。部分原因是業務組合不斷變化，美國東南部的業務越來越多，那裡的季節性特徵不同，這當然是有幫助的。

And then part of it is just continuing to sort of optimize our processes and the information coming out of our systems to manage this appropriately. So we continue to see it as an opportunity. I think it will always be an H1 investment, H2 recovery. although the quantum of changes from quarter-to-quarter will temper and be more muted than historically.

然後，其中一部分就是繼續優化我們的流程和來自我們系統的訊息，以適當地管理這一點。因此，我們繼續將其視為一個機會。我認為這永遠是上半年投資，下半年回收。儘管每季的變化幅度將會比歷史水準有所緩和並且更加溫和。

Our next question is from Tobey Sommer from Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Tobey Sommer。

How does the 80% of pricing activity for the year already being done compared to last year at this time and the historic experiences kind of want to dimensionalize that comment?

與去年相比，今年已經完成的 80% 的定價活動以及歷史經驗如何對這一評論進行維度化？

Yes. So Tobey, it's Luke speaking. I think the last couple of years have been unique from pricing because they've deviated from the historical norm that majority of your pricing activity happened in the first quarter. And that was really in response to the cost inflation we saw in '22 and '23 that had you pulling on the price lever more frequently throughout the year than you customarily do.

是的。托比，是盧克在說話。我認為過去幾年的定價是獨一無二的，因為它們偏離了大多數定價活動發生在第一季的歷史常態。這實際上是對我們在 22 年和 23 年看到的成本通膨的回應，這讓你全年比平時更頻繁地拉動價格槓桿。

So as a result, what happened was '22's and '23's price cadence was very off. Now by the second half of '23, we started to do more approach normal. And so '24 is set up in what I'd call a more typical year. And what is a more typical year, you roughly have anywhere from 25% to 35% of your in-year pricing rolling forward from last year's pricing activities.

因此，22 世紀和 23 世紀的價格節奏非常不正常。現在到了 23 年下半年，我們開始做更多接近正常的事。因此，「24」是我所說的更典型的一年。更典型的一年是，您的年內定價大約有 25% 到 35% 是從去年的定價活動中滾動的。

So you think about Q2, Q3, Q4 pricing actions in 2023, roll over into 2024. That accounts for roughly 25% to 35% of this year's price, Q1 activities is roughly sort of 50%, 55% of your overall sort of pricing activity for the year. And then that readily steps down from Q2, Q3, Q4. Q2 is like 10%, Q3 is like 5% and Q4 is de minimis.

因此，您可以考慮2023 年第二季、第三季、第四季的定價行動，然後延續到2024 年。定價的50%、55%本年度的活動。然後很容易從 Q2、Q3、Q4 下降。 Q2 大約是 10%，Q3 大約是 5%，Q4 是最低限度。

And so I'd say in the last couple of years that have been atypical, this year is returning to a more typical cadence, and I think 2025 should be very typical, but again, it's one of the very attractive attributes of our business that allows us this early in the year to already have the confidence in the contribution from that aspect of our top line revenue growth.

因此，我想說，在過去幾年中，這是非典型的，今年將回歸到更典型的節奏，我認為2025 年應該是非常典型的，但同樣，這是我們業務非常有吸引力的屬性之一讓我們在今年年初就已經對這方面對我們營收成長的貢獻充滿信心。

In Environmental Services, I'm curious about the outlook for growth over the balance of the year. You talked about 10% on an adjusted basis. Is that a good trend line? And are there any other adjustments that you could remind us? Or if you need to call anything out?

在環境服務領域，我對今年剩餘時間的成長前景感到好奇。你談到了調整後的10%。這是一條好的趨勢線嗎？您還有什麼可以提醒我們的其他調整嗎？或者如果您需要呼叫什麼？

No. So the adjustments really, if you recall in the Q1 presentation, I mean it was a perfect storm of opportunity in Q1 of last year and everything just came together and the business exceeded top line even our internal by about $40 million. So we normalize for that.

不。所以我們對此進行標準化。

If you think about the guide for this year, ES growth is supposed to be sort of mid-single digits organically. The Q1 and Q2 normalized growth is inclusive of M&A. But so really, if you think about ex M&A for the year, we're anticipating this mid-single-digit top line growth.

如果你考慮今年的指南，ES 的有機成長應該是中等個位數。第一季和第二季的正常成長包括併購。但事實上，如果你考慮今年的前併購，我們預計營收將實現中個位數成長。

This is really a price-led growth strategy that's probably offsetting some shedding of lower quality volume. I think that will pick up in Q2 and Q3. And for the year as a whole, we're feeling good at that mid-single-digit number. But what's exciting us the most is the effectiveness of our top line growth strategy as measured by the sort of margin expansion, right?

這實際上是一種以價格為主導的成長策略，可能會抵消一些低品質銷售的流失。我認為這將在第二季和第三季有所回升。就全年而言，我們對這個中個位數的數字感覺良好。但最讓我們興奮的是我們的營收成長策略的有效性（以利潤率擴張來衡量），對嗎？

And if we look at the Q1 result despite some of the headwinds to see the margin coming in 70 basis points better than planned, that, I think, is a testament to the effectiveness of this chasing quality over quantity on the top line, and that's going to be something we sort of continue to do.

如果我們看看第一季的結果，儘管存在一些阻力，我們會看到利潤率比計劃好70 個基點，我認為，這證明了這種在營收上追求質量而不是數量的有效性，那就是這將是我們繼續做的事情。

I mean our business, unlike some of our peers, one of the benefits of our ES business, sort of 80% plus of it is recurring maintenance sort of type nature. And there is a small component that is more event sort of driven, but it's the quality of that sort of underlying recurring business that allows us to sort of drive that margin expansion.

我的意思是，我們的業務與我們的一些同行不同，我們 ES 業務的好處之一（80% 以上）是週期性維護類型的性質。有一個小組成部分更多是由事件驅動的，但正是這種潛在的經常性業務的品質使我們能夠推動利潤率的擴張。

So I think for the year, that mid-single-digit holds, and we're encouraged by the margin expansion that we've seen in Q1.

因此，我認為今年保持中個位數，我們對第一季的利潤率擴張感到鼓舞。

Great. Last one for me. You mentioned negative weather impact beginning in the quarter, clearly, it was very cold, lots of places and then a little bit unseasonably warm. And if you net that out, what sort of impact did weather have on the quarter?

偉大的。最後一張給我。您提到了本季開始的負面天氣影響，顯然，很多地方非常寒冷，然後又有點反常的溫暖。如果你把這個因素考慮在內，天氣對本季產生了什麼樣的影響？

I mean it's hard to say to just measure that just the bad guys, I think on your sort of volume and solid waste, it's probably pretty close to offset by virtue of the pull forward of the warmer weather, and you think about it in Ontario and Quebec and Michigan, solid waste benefited. I mean there is really the ES business that dealt it on both sides because the warm weather in a lot of our Michigan and other areas where they introduced half-load season earlier, the nature of that business is large full-size tankers just won't run in that sort of road conditions.

我的意思是，很難說僅僅衡量壞人，我認為就您的數量和固體廢物而言，由於天氣變暖，它可能非常接近抵消，並且您在安大略省考慮這一點魁北克省和密西根州的固體廢物受益匪淺。我的意思是，確實有 ES 業務在雙方進行交易，因為我們密西根州和其他地區的許多地區天氣溫暖，他們早些時候引入了半載季節，該業務的性質是大型全尺寸油輪剛剛獲勝。在那種路況下跑步。

So I think you probably saw 100 basis points plus of margin impact. I think I said that in the prepared remarks from the weather on sort of ES. Solid , I think it's probably a wash. We had anticipated with the January to be negative 4.5%, and we ended up at that negative 3% number, which I think you largely sort of offset by the benefit of the warmer weather in the end of the quarter.

所以我認為您可能會看到 100 個基點以上的利潤率影響。我想我是在 ES 上準備好的天氣評論中說過的。固體，我想這可能是洗過的。我們預計 1 月的成長率為負 4.5%，最終結果為負 3%，我認為這在很大程度上被本季末天氣變暖的好處所抵消。

Our next question comes from Chris Murray from ATB Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 ATB Capital Markets 的 Chris Murray。

Yes. Thanks. Luke, it's interesting looking at the chart. And one of the things you did pull out and didn't talk about a little bit was some of the surcharge pricing and getting that in the system. And then you've also sort of talked about some of the system things you've been doing maybe putting -- I think you said you're going to put the tablets in the trucks to be -- let capture maybe some better pricing opportunities. Can you just talk a little bit about what's left to do structurally and kind of catching up your pricing to what you think your peers have been doing over the years?

是的。謝謝。盧克，看圖表很有趣。您確實撤出了但沒有談論的一件事是一些附加費定價並將其納入系統。然後你也談到了你一直在做的一些系統事情——我想你說過你要把平板電腦放在卡車上——讓我們抓住一些更好的定價機會。您能否簡單談談在結構上還需要做什麼，以及如何讓您的定價趕上您認為同行多年來一直在做的事情？

Yes, it's Patrick speaking. I think, again, structurally, if you look at the margin sort of independently of the 2 sort of LOBs, I mean if you look at -- let's -- if you look at Environmental Services, that business sort of on a like-for-like basis is sort of running at 300 to 400 basis points higher than the rest of the sector on -- after sort of SG&A allocation.

是的，我是派崔克。我再次認為，從結構上來說，如果你看一下獨立於兩種 LOB 的利潤率，我的意思是，如果你看一下——讓我們——如果你看一下環境服務業，該業務有點類似於在進行SG&A 分配後，類似的基差比該行業的其他部分高出300 到400 個基點。

So I think we still have a lot to do. I think there's still fuel surcharges, environmental surcharges. There's a bunch of other charges that we think we can implement in that business to push that business on a like-for-like basis in the sort of high 20s. Our solid waste business today, again, post sort of SG&A allocation sort of running in the high 20s today. If you look at the implementation of the repricing and sort of the EPR contracts, municipal hauling contracts that continue to come over, plus the implementation of the fuel surcharge, environmental surcharges, the level set that we've been through over the last couple of years, that's what's allowed that sort of outsized margin expansion.

所以我認為我們還有很多事情要做。我認為還有燃油附加費、環保附加費。我們認為我們可以在該業務中實施一系列其他費用，以在類似的基礎上推動該業務在 20 多歲左右。今天，我們的固體廢棄物業務再次在 SG&A 分配後運作在 20 左右。如果你看看重新定價的實施情況和 EPR 合同的分類、繼續簽訂的市政運輸合同，再加上燃油附加費、環境附加費的實施情況，我們在過去幾年中經歷的水平設定多年來，這就是利潤率大幅擴張的原因。

Coupled together now with, again, the implementation of the tablets in our trucks, again, to allow us to capture charges that we're able to charge contractually that we may be sort of missing today. And I said the rollout of those 3,500 tablets is going to be very meaningful. And again, sort of catch up on that. So I think when you sort of put that all together, plus EPR, plus RNG in the (inaudible) book of business, which we have very little of today, that is going to push us I would say, closer to industry-leading margins in solid waste. So all that together, we think over the next 2 to 3 years, all of that happens. And I'd say by 2026, you have a real sort of turning point on sort of on margins and the free cash flow profile of the entire business of free cash flow conversion as we sort of move there.

現在再次與我們的卡車中平板電腦的實施相結合，再次使我們能夠捕獲我們能夠按照合約收取的費用，而我們今天可能會遺漏這些費用。我說過這 3,500 台平板電腦的推出將非常有意義。再次，有點趕上這一點。所以我認為，當你把所有這些放在一起，再加上EPR，再加上（聽不清）業務手冊中的RNG（我們今天幾乎沒有），我想說，這將推動我們更接近行業領先的利潤率在固體廢棄物中。因此，我們認為在接下來的 2 到 3 年裡，所有這些都會發生。我想說，到 2026 年，隨著我們向那裡轉移，整個自由現金流轉換業務的利潤率和自由現金流狀況將出現真正的轉折點。

We have our last question for today from James Schumm from TD Cowen.

今天的最後一個問題是 TD Cowen 的 James Schumm 提出的。

Nice quarter. Patrick, maybe just to follow up on that last point. So by '26, do you think that your margin free cash flow profile will sort of equal your larger peers? Do you think you can fully catch up?

不錯的季度。派崔克，也許只是為了跟進最後一點。那麼，到 26 年，您認為您的保證金自由現金流狀況會與大型同行相當嗎？你認為你能完全趕上嗎？

I think the free cash flow conversion will still continue to lag, but that's just solely from the capital structure perspective. I think from a margin perspective, you're definitely going to be there. And I think you still have a little bit of a lag just in terms of the way our RNG portfolio is structured, right? Because you're going to get EBITDA contribution from the R&D portfolio, but the first dollars out of the RNG project actually go to repay a portion of the debt. That's the way they're sort of structured today. So you're going to have 1 year, 1.5 years basically payback on those, and then you get the ramp of the free cash flow in that.

我認為自由現金流轉換仍將繼續落後，但這只是從資本結構的角度來看。我認為從利潤角度來看，你肯定會在那裡。我認為就我們 RNG 投資組合的結構而言，你們仍然有一點滯後，對嗎？因為你將從研發組合中獲得 EBITDA 貢獻，但 RNG 計畫的第一筆資金實際上用於償還部分債務。這就是它們今天的結構方式。所以你基本上會有 1 年、1.5 年的回報，然後你就會得到自由現金流的成長。

But from a margin perspective, Again, if you look at EPR, you look at RNG, you look at all the self-help opportunities internally. I think headline margin numbers certainly are going to be there, free cash flow conversion, and we'll get there just might be sort of 1 year to 1.5 years behind.

但從利潤的角度來看，同樣，如果你看看 EPR，你看看 RNG，你會看到內部所有的自助機會。我認為整體利潤率數字肯定會出現，自由現金流轉換，我們可能會落後 1 年到 1.5 年。

Right. Right. Great. And then just on the M&A front, as you noted, you're around $500 million of M&A. So tracking ahead there for the year. How do you think about that strategically going forward for the rest of the year? Do you continue to bid on tuck-in work? Do you put more low ball bids out there? And I'm just trying to think about how you strategically handle as you get closer to your target, $600 million to $650 million. Do you put in some low bids? And if you win them and exceed your guidance, so be it because it's a great opportunity or is that $600 million to $650 million a hard cap that you're definitely not going to surpass?

正確的。正確的。偉大的。然後，正如您所指出的，僅在併購方面，您的併購金額約為 5 億美元。因此，今年將繼續向前推進。您如何看待今年剩餘時間的策略發展？您會繼續競標塞入工作嗎？您是否會提出更低的出價？我只是想思考，當您接近 6 億至 6.5 億美元的目標時，您將如何進行戰略處理。您出價較低嗎？如果你贏得了這些獎項並超越了你的指導，那麼是因為這是一個絕佳的機會，還是因為 6 億至 6.5 億美元是你絕對不會超越的硬上限？

The $600 million to $650 million is definitely a hard cap. We've committed to that in the capital allocation framework. That's what drives where we're going to end up on a leverage level. So all of that is what we are going to do. Again, we have very -- acquisitions just don't happen in a week, right? So we have very good visibility on where the pipeline sits, what we're going to close over the next couple of quarters.

6億到6.5億美元絕對是硬上限。我們在資本配置框架中對此做出了承諾。這就是我們最終達到槓桿水平的原因。所以所有這些都是我們要做的。再說一遍，我們的收購不會在一周內發生，對吧？因此，我們非常清楚管道的位置以及我們將在接下來的幾個季度關閉的項目。

And then we're getting to a point in the year where again, acquisitions, like I said, don't happen in a week, generally take 6 to 8 months between negotiations with sellers, implementing, sometimes they take years. But we feel very comfortable in that number. Obviously, there will be rollover. We're getting to the point where we're getting now where we can start pushing stuff until 2025.

然後我們又到了今年的一個階段，就像我說的那樣，收購不會在一周內發生，通常需要 6 到 8 個月的時間與賣家進行談判，實施，有時需要數年時間。但我們對這個數字感到非常滿意。顯然，將會出現翻車。我們現在已經到了可以開始推動工作直到 2025 年的地步。

But for 2024, we're definitely committed to the framework. We're definitely committed to the leverage levels. And I think if that rolls into '25, I think we got a question from someone over the course, are you just going to honor this for 2024 and then drive leverage back up in 2025 with an influx of deals? And the answer to that is no.

但到 2024 年，我們肯定會致力於該框架。我們絕對致力於槓桿水平。我認為，如果這種情況持續到 25 年，我認為我們在整個過程中收到了某人的問題，你是否會在 2024 年兌現這一承諾，然後在 2025 年通過大量交易推動槓桿率回升？答案是否定的。

I think if you look at the free cash flow generation, the organic margin expansion, the organic growth in the base business, how much capacity that gives us for M&A, well, while still driving down leverage, I mean that puts us squarely sort of sub mid-3s next -- for 2025. So that's the model we're working towards. So no, I feel very comfortable with what we put out, and we are going to stick to that hard cap.

我認為，如果你看看自由現金流的產生、有機利潤率擴張、基礎業務的有機增長、為我們提供多少併購能力，那麼，在仍然降低槓桿率的同時，我的意思是，這讓我們完全接下來是3 秒以下——2025 年。所以不，我對我們推出的產品感到非常滿意，我們將堅持這個硬上限。

We have no further questions from the line. I will now hand back to the management team for closing remarks.

我們沒有進一步的問題。我現在將請管理團隊做總結發言。

Thank you, everyone. Much appreciated. We look forward to speaking to everyone after our Q2 results in July. Thank you very much. .

謝謝大家。非常感激。我們期待在 7 月第二季結果公佈後與大家交談。非常感謝。 。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。