GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for attending today's GFL second quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Jerry, and I will be your moderator today. (Operator Instructions)

大家早安。感謝您參加今天的 GFL 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫傑瑞，今天我將擔任你們的主持人。（操作員指示）

I would now like to pass the conference over to your host, Patrick Dovigi, Founder and CEO of GFL. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給主持人、GFL 創辦人兼執行長 Patrick Dovigi。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to today's call, and thank you for joining us. This morning, we will be reviewing our results for the second quarter and updating our guidance for the year. I'm joined this morning by Luke Pelosi, our CFO, who will take us through the forward-looking disclaimer before we get into the details.

謝謝，早安。我歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議，感謝大家的參與。今天上午，我們將回顧第二季的業績並更新全年的預期。今天上午，我們的財務長盧克佩洛西 (Luke Pelosi) 與我們一起，在討論細節之前，他將向我們介紹前瞻性免責聲明。

Thank you, Patrick. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. We have filed our earnings press release, which includes important information. The press release is available on our website. During this call, we will be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and US securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate may occur in the future.

謝謝你，派崔克。大家早安，感謝大家的參與。我們已經提交了收益新聞稿，其中包含重要資訊。新聞稿可在我們的網站上查閱。在本次電話會議中，我們將根據適用的加拿大和美國證券法做出一些前瞻性陳述，包括有關我們認為或預期未來可能發生的事件或發展的陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set out in our filings with the Canadian and US securities regulators. Any forward-looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements.

這些前瞻性陳述受多種風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件中所述。任何前瞻性陳述都無法保證未來的業績，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所表達或暗示的結果有重大差異。

These forward-looking statements speak only as of today's date, and we do not assume any obligation to update these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events and developments or otherwise. This call will include a discussion of certain non-IFRS measures. A reconciliation of these non-IFRS measures can be found in our filings with the Canadian and US securities regulators.

這些前瞻性陳述僅代表截至今日的觀點，我們不承擔任何更新這些陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件和發展或其他原因。本次電話會議將討論某些非國際財務報告準則措施。在我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件中找到這些非國際財務報告準則措施的對帳表。

I will now turn the call back over to Patrick.

我現在將電話轉回給帕特里克。

Thank you, Luke. This quarter saw the continuation of the broad-based outperformance with which we started the year, driving results ahead of expectations despite multiple external headwinds. We achieved solid waste adjusted EBITDA margins in the second quarter of 34.7%, the highest Q2 in our company's history, and our revised outlook for the remainder of the year is better than we originally anticipated.

謝謝你，盧克。本季度，我們延續了年初以來的全面優異表現，儘管面臨多重外部阻力，但業績仍超乎預期。我們第二季的固體廢棄物調整後 EBITDA 利潤率達到 34.7%，是公司史上最高的第二季度，我們對今年剩餘時間的預期也好於最初的預期。

This consistent delivery of record-setting performance once again demonstrates the ongoing dedication and capabilities of our employees, and I want to again thank each and every one of them for the commitment to Team Green.

這種持續創紀錄的表現再次證明了我們員工的持續奉獻精神和能力，我要再次感謝他們每一位對綠色團隊的承諾。

Our top to bottom beat against expectations was achieved despite FX rates and commodity prices moving against us since we provided the Q2 guidance back in May. We believe this is a continued demonstration of the quality of our asset base, the effectiveness of our value creation strategies and the resiliency of our business model.

自從我們 5 月提供第二季指引以來，儘管外匯匯率和大宗商品價格走勢對我們不利，但我們的業績仍超出預期。我們相信，這繼續證明了我們的資產基礎的品質、我們的價值創造策略的有效性以及我們的商業模式的彈性。

Both pricing and volume were higher than expected for the quarter and continued to trend above our initial guidance, the intentional shedding of lower quality revenue and disciplined pricing strategy ensures we are generating appropriate returns for the high-quality services we provide. Because of this, we are increasing our pricing guidance and now expect to deliver over 5.5% pricing for the year.

本季的價格和銷售量均高於預期，並持續高於我們的初步預期，有意擺脫低品質收入和嚴格的定價策略確保我們為所提供的高品質服務產生適當的回報。因此，我們提高了定價指導，目前預計今年的定價將超過 5.5%。

Volume was positive for the third quarter in a row and accelerated 150 basis points over the first quarter. This result was achieved even with macro headwinds impacting construction-oriented volumes and industrial demand. We believe the current tariff environment and broader economic uncertainty are limiting activity levels of many of our industrial customers having a flow-through impact on volumes, especially in our roll-off collection.

交易量連續第三個季度為正值，較第一季成長 150 個基點。即使宏觀不利因素影響了建築業的產量和工業需求，我們仍然取得了這個成果。我們認為，當前的關稅環境和更廣泛的經濟不確定性正在限制許多工業客戶的活動水平，從而對銷售產生影響，尤其是在我們的滾裝收集方面。

Tailwinds from our recent strategic growth investments in EPR, together with the positive underlying trends arising from our market selection are more than offsetting these demand-side pressures. Although our exposure to cyclical end markets is low overall, we remain well positioned to benefit from any recovery in the macroeconomic environment.

我們最近對 EPR 的策略性成長投資所帶來的順風，加上我們市場選擇帶來的正面潛在趨勢，足以抵消這些需求方的壓力。儘管我們對週期性終端市場的敞口總體較低，但我們仍處於有利地位，可以從宏觀經濟環境的任何復甦中受益。

The effectiveness of our revenue-related strategies is also reflected in our margins, where we realized a 230 basis point expansion over the prior year. Lower labor turnover together with continuing progress in implementing our self-help initiatives and M&A synergy realization, all continue to contribute to our industry-leading organic margin expansion. As highlighted at our Investor Day, we see a clear path in the near term to low to mid-30% adjusted EBITDA margins, which should result in higher free cash flow conversion and returns across all of our asset base.

我們的收入相關策略的有效性也反映在我們的利潤率上，與前一年相比，我們的利潤率成長了 230 個基點。較低的勞動力流動率，加上我們在實施自助計劃和實現併購協同效應方面的持續進展，都將繼續促進我們行業領先的有機利潤率擴張。正如我們在投資者日所強調的那樣，我們看到短期內調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率將顯著達到 30% 左右，這將帶來更高的自由現金流轉換率和我們所有資產基礎的回報。

On M&A, we completed three small tuck-in acquisitions for the quarter and are anticipating closing three more tomorrow. Our pipeline remains robust, and we remain highly confident in our ability to meet or exceed our M&A capital deployment targets for 2025 and beyond. The back-end weighting of this year's M&A activity gives rise to a lower current year contribution but sets us up for a larger rollover amount into 2026, positioning us for yet another year of exceptional growth.

在併購方面，我們在本季完成了三項小型收購，預計明天將完成另外三項收購。我們的通路依然強勁，我們仍然對達到或超過 2025 年及以後的併購資本部署目標的能力充滿信心。今年併購活動的後端權重導致當年貢獻較低，但為我們進入 2026 年的更大結轉金額奠定了基礎，使我們又迎來了一年的卓越增長。

The strength of our first half results, together with the opportunities we see in front of us allow us to increase our full year guidance even in the face of economic uncertainty, we see in many of our markets. Our 2025 guidance is industry-leading organic revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. Luke will walk you through the updated guidance in more detail, but we are increasing our adjusted EBITDA target by $50 million or 2.6% before the -- considering the translation impact of FX.

我們上半年業績的強勁表現，加上我們面前的機遇，使得我們能夠提高全年業績預期，即使面對許多市場存在的經濟不確定性。我們對 2025 年的預期是實現領先業界的有機收入成長和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率擴張。盧克將向您更詳細地介紹更新的指南，但考慮到外匯的翻譯影響，我們將調整後的 EBITDA 目標提高了 5000 萬美元或 2.6%。

I will now turn the call to Luke, who will walk through the quarter in more detail, and then I'll share some closing comments before we open up for Q&A.

現在我將把電話轉給盧克，他將更詳細地介紹本季的情況，然後在我們開始問答之前我將分享一些結束語。

Thanks, Patrick. Similar to our first quarter discussion, all of our financial results and the associated analysis exclude the contribution from ES from the comparative prior year period. Consolidated revenue for the quarter of $1.675 billion was 9.5% ahead of the prior year pro forma for divestitures. Pricing and volume were both ahead of plan, whereas commodity prices, surcharges and contribution from FX were all headwinds to plan as the external factors on which these amounts are calculated changed significantly between the time we gave our guidance and the end of the second quarter.

謝謝，派崔克。與我們第一季的討論類似，我們所有的財務結果和相關分析均不包括去年同期 ES 的貢獻。本季綜合收入為 16.75 億美元，比去年同期的剝離預期高出 9.5%。定價和銷售均超出計劃，而商品價格、附加費和外匯貢獻都對計劃構成阻力，因為從我們給出指導到第二季度末，計算這些金額的外部因素發生了顯著變化。

Second quarter revenues would have been approximately $10 million higher if not for these exogenous changes. The carryforward of our strong first quarter pricing, along with incremental pricing actions enacted in response to ongoing cost inflation in select markets contributed to pricing of 5.8%, 30 basis points ahead of plan. For the full year, we now expect to realize pricing of 5.5% to 5.75%, 25 basis points better than our original guide.

如果沒有這些外部變化，第二季的營收將會高出約 1,000 萬美元。我們第一季強勁定價的延續，加上為應對特定市場持續的成本上漲而採取的增量定價措施，使定價上漲了 5.8%，比計劃提前了 30 個基點。就全年而言，我們現在預計實現定價為 5.5% 至 5.75%，比我們最初的指導高出 25 個基點。

Volume was positive in both of our geographies with over 200 basis points of sequential volume growth acceleration in our US geography as we move past the weather-related headwinds that impacted the first quarter. The positive volume was achieved inclusive of both roll-off pulls and C&D landfill volumes being down in what we ascribe to macro-related slowdown. Consistent with the first quarter, recyclable volumes associated with the EPR related activities continues to be a tailwind.

隨著我們克服了影響第一季的天氣相關不利因素，我們兩個地區的銷售量均呈現正成長，其中美國地區的銷售量較上季成長加速超過 200 個基點。實現正成長的原因包括滾裝垃圾量和 C&D 垃圾掩埋量下降，我們將其歸因於宏觀經濟放緩。與第一季一致，與 EPR 相關活動相關的可回收量持續保持順風動能。

Second quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 30.7%, 230 basis points higher than the prior year and 60 basis points ahead of our guide. The 2024 Michigan residential divestiture, the net impact of lower fuel prices and RNG contributions were a tailwind to margins, whereas commodity prices and acquisitions were a headwind. Excluding all these items, underlying solid waste margins expanded 170 basis points.

第二季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 30.7%，比前一年高出 230 個基點，比我們的預期高出 60 個基點。2024 年密西根州住宅資產剝離、燃料價格下降和 RNG 貢獻的淨影響對利潤率產生了順風作用，而大宗商品價格和收購則產生了逆風作用。除去所有這些項目，基礎固體廢棄物利潤率擴大了 170 個基點。

Adjusted free cash flow was approximately $137 million, a result better than planned on account of the adjusted EBITDA outperformance and the timing of CapEx. The $190 million year-to-date investment in working capital is consistent with our typical seasonal cadence and is expected to largely reverse by the end of the year. Although with the revenue growth outperformance, we now expect a modest investment in working capital for the year as a whole.

調整後的自由現金流約為 1.37 億美元，由於調整後的 EBITDA 表現優異以及資本支出的時間安排，結果好於計劃。今年迄今的 1.9 億美元營運資本投資與我們典型的季節性節奏一致，預計到年底將大幅逆轉。儘管收入成長表現出色，但我們預計全年營運資本的投資將適度。

As Patrick said, despite the multitude of external headwinds, the success of our first half results set us up to increase our guidance for the year. Revenue is now expected to be approximately $6.55 billion to $6.75 billion, based on the FX rate of 1.37 for the remainder of the year. Recall our original revenue guidance of $6.5 billion to $6.55 billion was based on the then FX rate of 1.41. Every 1 point move in FX is about a $30 million impact to annualized revenues.

正如帕特里克所說，儘管面臨許多外部阻力，但我們上半年業績的成功為我們提高全年業績預期奠定了基礎。根據今年剩餘時間的外匯匯率 1.37，預計營收約為 65.5 億美元至 67.5 億美元。回想一下，我們最初65億美元至65.5億美元的營收預期是基於當時1.41的匯率。匯率每變動1個點，年化營收就會受到約3,000萬美元的影響。

Our updated guidance would have been $6.625 billion to $6.65 billion on a constant currency basis, representing a 1.7% increase over our original guidance. The updated guidance assumes pricing of 5.5% to 5.75%, volume of positive 25 basis points to 75 basis points and net M&A contribution of 40 basis points to 50 basis points. The guide assumes today's commodity in RIN prices and the current macro environment persists. Any improvement to these variables will provide upside to the guide. The contribution from M&A incremental to what has been included in the guide will also be additive.

以固定匯率計算，我們更新後的指引將為 66.25 億美元至 66.5 億美元，比我們最初的指引增加 1.7%。更新後的指引假設定價為 5.5% 至 5.75%，交易量為正 25 個基點至 75 個基點，淨併購貢獻為 40 個基點至 50 個基點。該指南假設當今商品的 RIN 價格和當前宏觀環境持續存在。這些變數的任何改進都會為指南帶來好處。併購對指南中已包含內容的貢獻也將是附加的。

Adjusted EBITDA guidance increases to $1.95 billion to $1.975 billion, a $25 million increase at today's FX rates or a $50 million increase over our original guide on a constant currency basis. At the midpoint, year-over-year margin expansion increases to 120 basis points, an incremental 20 basis points over our original guidance, resulting in consolidated margins of just under 30% as the strength of our base business performance more than offsets the industry-wide margin headwinds from muted industrial and construction-related volumes and lower commodity prices.

調整後的 EBITDA 指引增至 19.5 億美元至 19.75 億美元，以今天的外匯匯率計算增加 2,500 萬美元，以固定匯率計算比我們原來的指引增加 5,000 萬美元。中間值方面，利潤率同比增幅增至 120 個基點，比我們最初的預期高出 20 個基點，綜合利潤率略低於 30%，因為我們基礎業務表現強勁，足以抵消工業和建築相關業務量低迷以及大宗商品價格下跌對全行業利潤率造成的不利影響。

In terms of adjusted free cash flow, the $25 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA gets offset by incremental cash interest expense associated with deploying the ES proceeds into share repurchases faster than originally anticipated and capital deployed into M&A.

就調整後的自由現金流而言，2500 萬美元的增量調整後 EBITDA 被與將 ES 收益以比最初預期更快的速度部署到股票回購中以及部署到併購中的資本相關的增量現金利息支出所抵消。

As I previously said, we now expect a modest working capital investment for the year as well as net CapEx of approximately $750 million, an increase over our original guidance largely attributable to the acquisition of a strategic property that was previously being leased. The expectation is that these incremental investments will be largely offset by reduced cash taxes from recent changes to US tax legislation. We are, therefore, reaffirming our $750 million adjusted free cash flow expectation.

正如我之前所說，我們現在預計今年的營運資本投資將適度，淨資本支出約為 7.5 億美元，這比我們最初的預期有所增加，主要歸因於收購了先前租賃的策略性房地產。預計這些增量投資將在很大程度上被美國稅法近期變化帶來的現金稅減少所抵消。因此，我們重申 7.5 億美元的調整後自由現金流預期。

As to the third quarter of 2025, we expect consolidated revenue of approximately $1.69 billion to $1.695 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $525 million which implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 31% and continued margin expansion over the prior year pro forma for the ES sale. Q3 adjusted free cash flow is expected to be approximately $175 million, inclusive of $120 million in cash interest, $250 million in base CapEx and $20 million net recovery from working capital and other operating cash flow items.

就 2025 年第三季而言，我們預計合併收入約為 16.9 億美元至 16.95 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 5.25 億美元，這意味著調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 31%，並且 ES 銷售的利潤率將繼續高於上一年的預測值。第三季調整後的自由現金流預計約為 1.75 億美元，其中包括 1.2 億美元的現金利息、2.5 億美元的基本資本支出以及 2000 萬美元的營運資本和其他經營現金流項目的淨回收。

I will now pass the call back to Patrick, who will provide some closing comments before Q&A.

我現在將電話轉回給帕特里克，他將在問答環節之前發表一些結束語。

Thank you, Luke. As I said in the quarter, our financial performance continues to prove the quality of our assets and market selection and the effectiveness of our strategic plan that we laid out at Investor Day. The operational resiliency of our business in the face of multiple external headwinds that we demonstrated with our results this quarter further reinforces our conviction that GFL is uniquely positioned for industry-leading financial performance and value creation for all of our shareholders in the near term.

謝謝你，盧克。正如我在本季度所說，我們的財務表現繼續證明了我們的資產和市場選擇的品質以及我們在投資者日制定的策略計劃的有效性。本季的業績表明，面對多重外部不利因素，我們的業務仍具有營運彈性，這進一步增強了我們的信念：GFL 在短期內擁有獨特的優勢，能夠實現業界領先的財務業績，並為所有股東創造價值。

I will now turn the call over to the operator to open up the line for Q&A.

我現在將把電話轉給接線員，開通問答熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Sabahat Khan, RBC Capital.

（操作員指示）Sabahat Khan，RBC Capital。

Great, thanks and good morning. Just before getting into the business, there are a bunch of headlines in the press over the recent months around the potential options the company might be considering for the GIP business. So maybe I just wanted to give you an opportunity to talk about, one, how you're thinking about that business and some options and kind of second part there.

太好了，謝謝，早安。在進入該業務之前，最近幾個月媒體上有大量頭條新聞報告該公司可能正在考慮的 GIP 業務的潛在選擇。所以也許我只是想給你一個機會來談談，第一，你是如何看待這項業務的，以及一些選擇，第二部分。

Maybe you can just give us some color on the current composition of that business across aggregates and some of the other business lines. And just sort of a third clarification question, there was a $24 million monetization or a gain that was reflected in the quarter? Can you just clarify that as well?

也許您可以向我們介紹一下該業務在總體和其他一些業務線上的當前構成情況。第三個澄清問題是，本季反映出的貨幣化或收益為 2,400 萬美元嗎？你能澄清一下嗎？

Yes, Sabahat. So as you know, I mean, I think we carved that business out of the GFL book in 2022. So owned it as a private business now for approximately three years. I think over the -- at the time, our equity value in that business was valued on the books of somewhere around $250 million. I think you mentioned a footnote of just the rebasing of that. The $25 million is really nothing. It's really because we did an acquisition in one of the principles of that business that we bought. They actually ended up taking equity in GIP. So technically, we sold the equity at a much higher value.

是的，薩巴哈特。所以如你所知，我的意思是，我認為我們在 2022 年將這項業務從 GFL 書中剔除了。因此，現在將其作為私人企業擁有約三年了。我認為——當時，我們在該業務中的股權價值在帳面上的價值約為 2.5 億美元。我認為您提到的腳註只是對此進行了重新定基。2500萬美元真的不算什麼。這實際上是因為我們對我們購買的那項業務的其中一項原則進行了收購。他們最終實際上獲得了 GIP 的股權。因此從技術上講，我們以更高的價格出售了股權。

So it's sort of that rebate. But by and large, I think what you'll see through the process that you've seen some headlines recently. We're looking to conclude that process over the next two to three weeks. I think we're on the five-yard line, we're down to two final bidders and we're in the process of just winding that process down.

所以這算是回扣。但總的來說，我認為您將透過這個過程看到您最近看到的一些頭條新聞。我們希望在未來兩到三週內完成這項進程。我認為我們已經到了最後階段，只剩下兩個最終競標者，而且我們正在逐步結束這個過程。

And I think you'll see a very favorable result, but we'll share that when the final party is selected and we get to the market. But I think what you'll see is a rebase of our equity significantly higher, consistent with what we thought values of that business could be over the near to sort of medium term.

我認為你會看到非常有利的結果，但當最終選定一方並進入市場時，我們會分享這個結果。但我認為，您會看到我們的股權價值大幅上升，這與我們對該業務近期至中期價值的預期一致。

As we said, it would be -- I think from our perspective, partial monetization, not a full monetization. We continue to see a significant amount of opportunities in that business, but there will be a dividend that comes back to GFL to use again for further M&A within the existing portfolio. And certainly at these levels, continued share buybacks with the proceeds that we get from that sale process. But like I said, nothing is 100% done until it's done, but we're feeling very good about it, and we think that we'll have something to report in the next coming weeks.

正如我們所說，我認為從我們的角度來看，這將是部分貨幣化，而不是完全貨幣化。我們繼續看到該業務中存在大量機會，但股息將返還給 GFL，用於在現有投資組合內進一步進行併購。當然，在這些水準上，我們會利用從銷售過程中獲得的收益繼續回購股票。但就像我說的，沒有任何事情在完成之前都不能 100% 完成，但我們對此感覺非常好，我們認為我們將在接下來的幾週內報告一些結果。

Great. And then just on the margin side, good progress this quarter. It sounds like you pointed a 31% for the next quarter. If you can maybe just recap or give us an update on some of the self-help levers and the improvements that you sort of highlighted at the Investor Day where you are on those and what you expect to contribute to this full year guidance here for the rest of the year. So just a bit of an update on the margin side, please.

偉大的。就利潤率而言，本季取得了良好的進展。聽起來您預計下一季的成長率將達到 31%。您能否簡單回顧一下或向我們介紹一下您在投資者日上強調的一些自助手段和改進措施，以及您期望這些措施對今年剩餘時間的全年指導做出哪些貢獻。因此，請稍微更新保證金方面的資訊。

Yeah, hey, Sabahat, good morning. It's Luke. It's a great question, and obviously something that we're sort of really excited about. You can see it in the current quarter results, exceeding what we're already, we think, pretty sort of ambitious expectations or roles. And it's, as you said, a function of all of those levers contributing to the overall sort of cost, it starts in the top line.

是的，嘿，Sabahat，早安。是盧克。這是一個很好的問題，顯然我們對此感到非常興奮。您可以在本季度的業績中看到這一點，我們認為這超出了我們現有的相當雄心勃勃的預期或目標。正如您所說，這是所有這些槓桿的作用，它們共同決定了總體成本，而成本是從頂線開始的。

You can see the pricing outperformance for the current quarter. I mean one of the self-help levers we had talked about at the Investor Day was on the surcharges line. right? And there's just a whole host of incremental fees that we should be getting for the services we provide. And we've talked about initiatives to get those in place and go out and harvest that opportunity and while we're early stages, it's starting to contribute.

您可以看到本季的定價表現優異。我的意思是，我們在投資者日上討論過的自助手段之一就是附加費。對嗎？我們所提供的服務應該收取大量的增量費用。我們已經討論了實施這些舉措並抓住機會的舉措，雖然我們還處於早期階段，但它已經開始發揮作用。

And so some of that price outperformance, I think we had articulated a $40 million to $80 million opportunity for surcharges by the time we got to 2028, very early stages, but we're starting to realize some of that benefit. You're seeing that come through on the top line. As you go down the P&L, I think another key opportunity was labor turnover, right?

因此，我認為，對於部分價格優異表現而言，到 2028 年，也就是非常早期的階段，我們已經明確表示將有 4000 萬至 8000 萬美元的附加費機會，但我們才剛開始意識到其中的一些好處。您會在頂線上看到這一點。當你查看損益表時，我認為另一個關鍵機會是勞動力流動，對嗎？

And just the benefits that will come from attracting and retaining talent and keeping them in the doors for longer, and you're seeing that continued sequential improvement in the turnover rates. Still not where we ultimately want to be, but probably another 100 basis points, 200 basis points improvement in the current quarter versus on a year-over-year basis. And that accrues into that labor line, right?

吸引和留住人才並讓他們長期留在公司會帶來好處，而且你會看到離職率持續下降。雖然仍未達到我們最終想要達到的目標，但與去年同期相比，本季可能還會再提高 100 個基點、200 個基點。這算進勞動線了嗎？

All in labor, you can take them to 25%, 35% P&L and obviously, improving that turnover is a key part to driving productivity and cost savings and you're seeing that come through. And then as you just think about the broader buckets of cost, we talked about synergy realization, we talked about procurement optimization. Each of those levers are being pulled and the team is being able to deliver in excess of as I said, what was already pretty ambitious 2025 expectations.

全部勞動力，你可以將它們帶到 25%、35% 的損益，顯然，提高營業額是提高生產力和節約成本的關鍵部分，你會看到這一點。然後，當您考慮更廣泛的成本時，我們討論了協同效應的實現，討論了採購優化。每一個槓桿都在發揮作用，團隊能夠實現超越我所說的已經相當雄心勃勃的 2025 年預期的目標。

So you're right, Q3, the expectation is it continues for the guide the year as a whole. We now see an incremental 20 basis points at the midpoint over what was already our starting 100 basis points. And we're really excited for the continued performance and proud of how well everyone is executing on these strategic plans.

所以你是對的，第三季度，預計它會持續指導全年。我們現在看到中間點比起始的 100 個基點增加了 20 個基點。我們對持續的表現感到非常興奮，並為每個人出色地執行這些戰略計劃而感到自豪。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Stephanie Moore, Jefferies.

史蒂芬妮摩爾，傑富瑞集團。

Hi, good morning. Thank you. Patrick, you noted previously that your M&A pipeline, the majority of the pipeline you're looking at was tuck-in acquisitions with an existing market. Just curious if maybe that has changed at all as you look at the back half? And then if you could maybe speak to the visibility to M&A you have in the second half of this year? Thanks.

嗨，早安。謝謝。派崔克，您之前提到過，您的併購管道，也就是您所關注的大部分管道都是針對現有市場的收購。我只是好奇，當你看後半部分時，情況是否有改變？那麼，您能否談談今年下半年併購的前景如何？謝謝。

Yes, no problem. Thanks, Stephanie. I think from where we sort of sit today, I mean, of course it's been a very busy first half of the year, one with the carve-out of the ES business. And then the, I would say, the recapitalization of the infrastructure business combined to sort of what we do every day on the solid waste side. I think we've deployed just over $300 million of capital today into M&A.

是的，沒問題。謝謝，斯蒂芬妮。我認為從我們今天所處的位置來看，今年上半年當然非常忙碌，其中一個原因是 ES 業務的剝離。然後，我想說，基礎設施業務的資本重組與我們每天在固體廢物方面所做的事情相結合。我認為我們今天已在併購領域投入了超過 3 億美元的資金。

I think we guided to $700 million to $900 million spend this year on M&A and we're fully on track to do that, fully on track to achieve the high end of that range. So visibility is very good. And although there won't be a large in-year contribution from the M&A, I think setting us up perfectly for an outsized year of growth in 2026 because of the rollover effect of that M&A that's going to close in the back half of the year here.

我認為我們今年在併購上的支出預計為 7 億至 9 億美元，而且我們完全有望實現這一目標，完全有望達到這一範圍的高端。所以能見度非常好。儘管併購不會在年度內帶來很大的貢獻，但我認為，由於併購的延續效應，這將為我們在 2026 年實現超額增長奠定良好的基礎，而併購將在下半年完成。

So very good visibility. In terms of moving to new markets, nothing has changed on that thinking. Again, continued focus is on densifying the existing markets where we have underutilized post-collection assets. We think that's going to get us the highest returns on invested capital. And for the time being, that's where we're focused, and we don't see any reason to sort of step outside those markets that we're currently operating in today.

能見度非常好。就進軍新市場而言，這種想法並沒有任何改變。再次，我們繼續關注的是增強現有市場中尚未充分利用的收款後資產。我們認為這將使我們獲得最高的投資回報。目前，這就是我們的重點，我們認為沒有理由走出我們目前營運的市場。

Got it. And then maybe just a follow-up to the volume performance. Look, I think at this point, we've all seen or heard that, obviously the industrial economy is really weak. There can be lumpiness with special waste volumes, but your volume performance definitely continues to be a clear standout. So if you could just kind of talk about the puts and takes to the volume performance in the quarter, specifically with, as you noted, both regions seeing positive contribution. Thank you.

知道了。然後也許只是對音量表現的後續關注。看，我認為在這一點上，我們都已經看到或聽到，工業經濟顯然非常疲軟。特殊廢物量可能會有波動，但您的量表現絕對會繼續保持突出。因此，如果您可以談談本季銷售表現的投入和產出，特別是如您所說，兩個地區都看到了積極的貢獻。謝謝。

Yes. Thanks, Stephanie. It's Luke here. Happy to walk through it because again, performance that we're sort of proud of, and I think it speaks to some of the strategies that we've been talking about, both in terms of market selection as well as the strategic investments that we have been sort of making.

是的。謝謝，斯蒂芬妮。我是盧克。很高興能夠回顧這個過程，因為我們對這一表現感到自豪，我認為這反映了我們一直在談論的一些策略，包括市場選擇以及我們一直在進行的策略投資。

I mean on the market selection piece, again, we've spoken to the benefit we have of having large businesses in the US Southeast, where a lot of people are sort of moving to new houses yields new business, which yields new opportunities for us.

我的意思是，在市場選擇方面，我們再次談到了在美國東南部擁有大型企業的好處，那裡很多人搬到新房子，這帶來了新的業務，也為我們帶來了新的機會。

And then also regulatory environment, and Canada as a whole tends to historically been a good volumetric business just by virtue of increased regulation that drives volumetric opportunities. And we're certainly seeing that with EPR, which ties into the sort of strategic investment, right? The regulatory change gave opportunity for capital deployment and we saw as attractive return profile. And as you know, we have heavily invested in that.

然後還有監管環境，加拿大作為一個整體，歷史上往往是一個良好的體積業務，這僅僅是因為加強監管推動了體積機會。我們確實看到了 EPR 與策略性投資之間的聯繫，對嗎？監管變化為資本配置提供了機會，我們認為回報狀況很有吸引力。如您所知，我們對此投入了大量資金。

And there's been a couple of years. We've been on these calls talking about all this investment we've been making. But now, fortunately, we're finally at the time when we get to reap the rewards from that. And it's sort of playing out as anticipated. I mean Canadian volume was 6.3% for the quarter. Now it was 6.9% in Q1, but Q1 benefited from one large event driven sort of destruction of a car plant. It was about $10 million of transfer station volume we called out. If you exclude that, Q1 was 4.6%. So you really now sequentially increasing the 6.3% in Canada for Q2.

已經有幾年了。我們在電話中討論了我們所做的所有投資。但現在，幸運的是，我們終於到了可以從中收穫回報的時候了。事情的發展正如預期的那樣。我的意思是本季加拿大的銷量為 6.3%。現在第一季的成長率為 6.9%，但第一季受益於一次由汽車廠被毀引發的重大事件。我們呼叫的轉運站容量約為 1000 萬美元。如果排除這一點，第一季的成長率為 4.6%。因此，加拿大第二季的成長率實際上已經連續提高了 6.3%。

Now EPR is a big driver of that as it was intended to be. And so if you back that out for Canada is about sort of 2.5% volume growth, which I think is just a sort of function of the quality of the business that we have and a little bit of the catch up of Q1 because recall that was a little bit sort of muted by virtue of the real sort of winter that was experienced in many markets.

現在，EPR 已經成為實現這一目標的重要推動力。因此，如果你把加拿大的銷售成長計​​算出來，那麼成長率大約是 2.5%，我認為這只是我們業務品質的一種表現，也與第一季的成長有些相似，因為回想一下，由於許多市場經歷了真正的冬季，第一季度的成長有所放緩。

The US is arguably the more sort of shining star and volume growth turned positive from what we had in Q1, now Q1 heavily weather-related impacts. But the print positive volume growth there despite the industrial and construction oriented slowdown, I think it really speaks volumes, pardon the use of that word, to the business that we have there. I mean if I look at CMD waste, it was down 8% quarter-over-quarter, which I think is a function of that sort of macro piece.

美國可以說是一顆更耀眼的明星，其銷售成長與第一季相比轉為正值，但現在第一季受到天氣的嚴重影響。但是，儘管工業和建築業放緩，但那裡的印刷量仍然保持正增長，我認為這確實說明了我們在那裡的業務，請原諒我用這個詞。我的意思是，如果我看一下 CMD 浪費，它比上一季下降了 8%，我認為這是這種宏觀因素的作用。

Now as we said in the prepared remarks, we've never been able to grow a business that had a high degree of exposure to the most cyclical ends of the market, and that's really coming out of our historical leverage profile. So I think we have more de minimis exposure to some of the soft areas, but it's also just a function of benefiting from the investments that we've been made both organically and inorganically, and we're excited to sort of continue as we go forward.

正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們從來沒有能夠發展出一個高度依賴市場最週期性的終端的業務，而這實際上源於我們的歷史槓桿狀況。因此，我認為我們在一些軟領域擁有更多的最低限度的曝光，但這也只是從我們有機和無機投資中獲益的結果，我們很高興能夠繼續前進。

Thank you

謝謝

Patrick Brown, Raymond James.

派崔克布朗、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Hey guys, this is Tyler. Can you hear me?

嘿大家，我是泰勒。你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can hear you.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。

Luke, can we go back to volumes and I just need some clarification because I think it's a little bit confusing. So you printed 2.5% volumes, but my hunch is the vast majority of that was EPR and RNG investments layering in. Is that correct?

路克，我們可以回到卷上嗎？我只是需要一些澄清，因為我認為這有點令人困惑。所以你印了 2.5% 的量，但我的直覺是其中絕大多數是 EPR 和 RNG 投資分層。對嗎？

And two, on the 25basis points to 75 basis points on volume guidance, is that excluding EPR and RNG? Or is that what we're going to see in the table? Does that make sense?

第二，關於 25 個基點至 75 個基點的成交量指導，是否不包括 EPR 和 RNG？或者這就是我們將在表格中看到的內容？這樣有道理嗎？

Yes. Tyler, I'm not sure if you just heard my response to Stephanie as I just sort of covered a bunch of that. But just to reiterate, EPR if you think about for the quarter, EPR is contributing about $20 million, $25 million of the global volume number, right? So certainly, EPR is providing a tailwind to the consolidated volumes. Now even without that, Canada volume is positive 2.6% and the US volume is also positive. But yes, you got a big chunk of it for being EPR.

是的。泰勒，我不確定你是否聽到了我對史蒂芬妮的回應，因為我剛剛談到了很多內容。但重申一下，如果您考慮本季度，EPR 為全球交易量貢獻了約 2000 萬美元、2500 萬美元，對嗎？因此，EPR 無疑為合併交易量提供了助力。現在，即使沒有這個，加拿大的交易量也為正 2.6%，美國的交易量也為正。但是的，作為 EPR，你確實獲得了很大一部分利益。

Now remember, EPR was in our base guide, right? So for the year as a whole, the initial guidance was assuming we're going to be, call it, roughly flat on volume. I think we said minus 25% to positive 25%. The new guide takes that up 50 bps. So now we're saying $25 million to $75 million. A little bit of that outperformance over original guide is incremental EPR benefits, right?

現在記住，EPR 在我們的基礎指南中，對嗎？因此，對於全年而言，最初的指導是假設我們的交易量大致持平。我認為我們說的是負 25% 到正 25%。新指南將該比率提高了 50 個基點。所以現在我們說的是 2500 萬到 7500 萬美元。超出原指南一點點的表現就是增量 EPR 效益，對嗎？

So we're doing a little bit better than what the pro forma was on EPR volume. But the balance of that incremental volumetric guide is just broad-based volume across the system. On RNG, this by virtue of our arrangement, very de minimis amount of our RNG EBITDA is actually manifested in the revenue line, right? It's just all the sort of JV EBITDA pickup. So RNG really is not factoring into the volume story but EPR is, although I would say the guidance raise is less about EPR and more about broad-based outperformance.

因此，我們的表現比 EPR 量的預測要好一些。但增量體積指南的平衡只是整個系統的廣泛體積。對於 RNG，根據我們的安排，我們的 RNG EBITDA 中極少量的部分實際上體現在收入線上，對嗎？這只是合資企業 EBITDA 的一種回升。因此，RNG 實際上並沒有影響銷量，但 EPR 卻影響了銷量，儘管我認為指導價的提高與 EPR 關係不大，而更多的是與廣泛的優異表現有關。

Okay. Okay. That's very helpful. I appreciate that. And then I know the CapEx is obviously split between US and Canada. But just any broad color on the dollars of what bonus depreciation means in '25. And if I go back to the Analyst Day, I think you said that you were expecting, call it, a mid-40s free cash conversion. But with bonus depreciation, does that maybe jog up, say, 100 basis points or something like that? Just any color there?

好的。好的。這非常有幫助。我很感激。然後我知道資本支出顯然由美國和加拿大分擔。但這只是對 25 年獎金折舊意味著什麼的一個大致說明。如果我回顧分析師日，我想您說過，您預計自由現金轉換率將達到 40 多美元。但是，隨著獎金折舊，這個數字是否可能會上升，比如說 100 個基點或類似的數字？那裡有任意顏色嗎？

Yes. Great question, Tyler, and obviously sort of very topical. For the current year, bonus depreciation is expected to be about $25 million, $30 million tailwind, right? And that's really, as you said, coming out of the US dollar CapEx but as we said in the prepared remarks, I really have a little bit of extra CapEx really $25 million associated with one transfer station site that we used to lease and we had to buy because we couldn't lose it.

是的。泰勒，這個問題問得很好，而且顯然非常具有現實意義。就本年度而言，預計獎金折舊約為 2500 萬美元，順風收入約為 3000 萬美元，對嗎？正如您所說，這確實來自美元資本支出，但正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我確實有一點額外的資本支出，實際上是 2500 萬美元，與我們曾經租賃的一個中轉站站點有關，我們不得不購買它，因為我們不能失去它。

And then a little bit of working capital investment. So that's sort of a wash at the free cash flow line. But $25 million, $30 million bonus depreciation benefit this year. And that ramps up $40 million next year and then grows from there, obviously, contingent on the US dollar qualifying CapEx spend. But to your point on the free cash flow conversion, and I think that's a very important one.

然後再進行一點營運資金投資。所以這就像是對自由現金流線的一種沖刷。但今年有 2500 萬美元、3000 萬美元的獎金折舊收益。明年這一數字將增加 4000 萬美元，然後繼續增長，顯然，這取決於美元合格的資本支出。但對於您提到的自由現金流轉換，我認為這非常重要。

If you think about the page that you're referring to in the Investor Day deck, we said, hey, over the next couple of years, you get up to '28, you got roughly $9 billion revenue, $2.9 billion, $3 billion of EBITDA and we're going to be converting sort of mid -- low to mid-40s free cash flow conversion. And what were the drivers of that?

如果您想想您在投資者日簡報中所指的頁面，我們說，嘿，在接下來的幾年裡，到 28 年，您將獲得大約 90 億美元的收入、29 億美元、30 億美元的 EBITDA，我們將轉換中低到 40 年代中期的自由現金流轉換。造成這種情況的因素是什麼？

Well, it was the EBITDA margin expansion. The capital intensity is what it is. We're going to enjoy a reduction in cash interest intensity as we migrated towards a more industry norm level of cash interest burden. But partially offsetting that was going to be this ramp in cash taxes, right? Because we're now a sort of a cash taxpayer and we're going to go from cash taxes historically being 30 basis points to 40 basis points of revenue that was going to ramp up to the sort of 200 basis points of revenue that it represents for all of our peers.

嗯，這是 EBITDA 利潤率的擴大。資本密集度就是這樣。隨著我們朝著更符合業界標準的現金利息負擔水準邁進，我們的現金利息強度將會降低。但部分抵銷這影響的將是現金稅的增加，對嗎？因為我們現在是現金納稅人，我們的現金稅將從歷史上的 30 個基點增加到 40 個基點，而這將增加到代表我們所有同行的 200 個基點的收入。

What the bonus depreciation is going to do is materially slow down that ramp in the cash tax burden. So all other things being equal, if you go back to that Investor Day where we said $2.9 billion to $3 billion of EBITDA, I call it, 43% to 45% free cash conversion. That would have been $12.75 to $13.25 of free cash. And now you'd say you did $50 million better than that, right? And so to your point, I think it equals about 200 basis points of incremental free cash flow conversion.

獎金折舊將顯著減緩現金稅負的成長。因此，在其他所有條件相同的情況下，如果你回顧投資者日，我們說過 EBITDA 為 29 億美元至 30 億美元，我稱之為 43% 至 45% 的自由現金轉換。這相當於 12.75 美元到 13.25 美元的免費現金。現在你會說你的收入比這多出了 5000 萬美元，對嗎？所以，就你的觀點而言，我認為它相當於增量自由現金流轉換約 200 個基點。

That '28 is a long way away, and there's obviously a lot of moving pieces. But absolutely, wherever we were going to get to before, we probably now have a 100 basis point to 200 basis points tailwind that's going to allow us to hit that four handle and go through that at a free cash flow conversion faster than we otherwise would have.

那個 28 年還很遙遠，而且顯然還有很多事情要考慮。但絕對而言，無論我們之前要達到什麼目標，我們現在可能都有 100 個基點到 200 個基點的順風，這將使我們能夠達到那四個目標，並以比我們原本更快的速度完成自由現金流轉換。

Right. Great color. Thank you guys.

正確的。顏色很棒。謝謝你們。

Kevin Chiang, CIBC Wood Gundy.

Kevin Chiang，加拿大帝國商業銀行 Wood Gundy。

Hey, thanks for taking my question. And good morning. Luke, you've kind of highlighted the strong organic growth in Canada. EPR is obviously a contributor there. It does feel like EPR is coming in as expected, maybe a little bit better. Just wondering, I know in the past, you've talked about as a team kind of upside to EPR EBITDA relative to the base cases. Is that kind of what we're tracking to now? And -- or is that something we could see in future years like in '26, '27 as you continue to build on this EPR revenue stream?

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。早安.盧克，您強調了加拿大強勁的有機成長。EPR 顯然是其中的貢獻者。確實感覺 EPR 正在按照預期進展，甚至可能更好一些。只是想知道，我知道在過去，你們作為一個團隊談論過 EPR EBITDA 相對於基本情況的優勢。這就是我們現在所追蹤的嗎？或者說，隨著您繼續建立這項 EPR 收入流，我們是否會在未來幾年（例如 26 年、27 年）看到這種情況？

Yes. So Kevin, what we're seeing in the current year is not those incremental opportunities, I just want to be clear. This is really picture a scenario of Montreal, we opened our MRF to deal with EPR. We're expecting to do volume of $100 million in the first year, and we're actually doing volume of $110 million because our customer base is using our facility on sort of a temporary basis as other sort of components of EPR get up and running.

是的。所以凱文，我們在今年看到的不是那些增量機會，我只是想明確一點。這實際上是蒙特利爾的一個場景，我們開設了 MRF 來處理 EPR。我們預計第一年的銷售額將達到 1 億美元，但實際上我們的銷售額達到了 1.1 億美元，因為我們的客戶群只是在臨時使用我們的設施，而 EPR 的其他組件也正在啟動和運行。

So I think we're benefiting from some transitional style volumes that effectively are going to allow us to ramp to the $130 million of EBITDA faster than we otherwise would have. Because if I use that Montreal example, this incremental volume that I'm enjoying today I'm not going to have that necessarily into next year, but incremental contracts are going to come on that will effectively replace it.

因此，我認為我們受益於一些過渡式的銷售量，這實際上將使我們能夠比原本更快地將 EBITDA 提升至 1.3 億美元。因為如果我使用蒙特利爾的例子，我今天享受的增量量不一定會延續到明年，但增量合約將會有效地取代它。

So I'd say what we're enjoying today is a modest sort of pickup of just volume associated with the transition to EPR. Now the broader opportunities remain, and I'm going to let Patrick speak to that, but we still see across the country, incremental opportunities as we have before.

所以我想說，我們今天所享受的只是向 EPR 過渡所帶來的產量的適度回升。現在，更廣泛的機會仍然存在，我將讓帕特里克來談談這一點，但我們在全國範圍內仍然看到像以前一樣的增量機會。

Patrick, do you want to provide some color on that?

派崔克，你想對此提供一些解釋嗎？

Yes. So if you look at EPR, I mean, there was -- as we talked about, there was a couple of opportunities, one that was in sort of Maritimes in Canada, which we were not successful on. There's still a couple of opportunities in Quebec that we feel we're very well positioned for.

是的。所以如果你看 EPR，我的意思是，正如我們所討論的，有幾個機會，其中一個是在加拿大的沿海省份，但我們沒有成功。我們覺得魁北克仍有幾個機會，我們已經做好準備。

And then as Western Canada comes online, again, very well positioned with our assets. But everything is tracking to plan. I think the investments we made are going well and are on plan. So I think if we can just keep up this trajectory, we're -- it will play out as we anticipated.

然後，隨著加拿大西部上線，我們的資產再次處於非常有利的位置。但一切都在按計劃進行。我認為我們的投資進展順利並且符合計劃。所以我認為如果我們能夠保持這個軌跡，它就會按照我們預期的方式發展。

That makes sense. And maybe just a quick modeling question, I guess. And maybe this is for you, Luke. Obviously, a lot of M&A this year, and it seems like the pipeline is huge. You spoke of outsized contribution in '26 from M&A completed this year. As I think of how that impacts the corporate line item.

這很有道理。我想，這可能只是一個簡單的建模問題。也許這是給你的，盧克。顯然，今年有很多併購案，而且看起來數量龐大。您談到了今年完成的併購對 26 年的巨大貢獻。當我思考這會對公司專案產生什麼影響時。

Should we assume that stays flat because if I recall at the Investor Day, you kind of talked about as you build out the platform here that corporate cost gets a little bit more incremental leverage into the bottom line. Is that kind of the right way to think about it as we think about the earnings contribution on a consolidated basis from this elevated M&A activity.

我們是否應該假設這一數字保持不變，因為如果我沒記錯的話，在投資者日，您曾談到，當您在這裡建立平台時，企業成本會獲得更多的增量槓桿作用，從而進入底線。當我們考慮併購活動增加對合併收益的貢獻時，這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Absolutely, Kevin. I think you're thinking about it exactly right. I mean, we've made investments over the last years into the corporate office just as we grew as a public company and then most significantly over the last couple of years in IT-related infrastructure and cloud, et cetera. But I think where we're at today is we have the corporate function that we need, and we do not see the need for material incremental investment. So now is the time to drive meaningful operating leverage on that line.

當然，凱文。我認為你的想法完全正確。我的意思是，過去幾年，隨著我們作為一家上市公司的發展，我們對公司辦公室進行了投資，而過去幾年，我們在 IT 相關基礎設施和雲端運算等方面進行了最為重大的投資。但我認為，我們目前的情況是，我們已經擁有了所需的企業職能，我們認為沒有必要進行實質的增量投資。因此，現在是時候在該生產線上發揮有意義的營運槓桿作用了。

Recall, we had levered that line down to sort of a 2.5%, 3% of revenue, but then with the divestitures, both the smaller pieces through '23 and then the ES divestiture that cost bucket sort of jump back up to the sort of 4% as we retained a lot of that sort of corporate infrastructure.

回想一下，我們曾將該線下調至收入的 2.5% 或 3%，但隨後隨著資產剝離，到 23 年，較小的部分以及 ES 資產剝離的成本又回升至 4%，因為我們保留了大量此類公司基礎設施。

Now we fully anticipate from a modeling perspective for that item to sort of grow organically at a sort of low to mid-single-digit number, whereas the top line will be able to grow at a faster clip by virtue of the M&A, and you should get the exact operating leverage that you're describing.

現在，從建模角度來看，我們完全可以預期該項目將以低到中等個位數的有機增長，而憑藉併購，營業收入將能夠以更快的速度增長，並且您應該獲得您所描述的確切的經營槓桿。

Perfect. That's great clarification. Thank you very much, guys.

完美的。這澄清得很好。非常感謝你們，夥伴們。

Konark Gupta, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Konark Gupta。

Thanks and good morning guys. Just probably first on the guidance for revenue and EBITDA. It looks like FX is shaving off 50 to like two-third -- 50% to two-third of your revenue and EBITDA bump for the full year. What about the remaining items that are driving the guidance up? I mean I think you had some M&A sort of catch-up from Q1, I guess, and then you had some incremental M&A, I guess. You've seem to bump up volume and pricing assumptions as well. Can you put some numbers into the buckets in terms of what's driving those revenue and EBITDA attribution.

謝謝大家，早安。可能首先是關於收入和 EBITDA 的指導。看起來 FX 將削減 50% 到三分之二——全年收入和 EBITDA 增幅的 50% 到三分之二。那麼，推動指導價上漲的其餘項目又如何呢？我的意思是，我認為你們從第一季開始就進行了一些併購追趕，然後又進行了一些增量併購。您似乎也提高了銷售量和定價假設。您能否提供一些數字來說明推動這些收入和 EBITDA 歸屬的因素？

(technical difficulty) I'm sorry, I think we had some technical issues. Konark, can you hear me?

（技術難題）抱歉，我想我們遇到了一些技術問題。科納克，你聽得到我說話嗎？

I can hear you. Can you hear me now?

我聽到你的聲音。現在你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes. I'm sorry, Konark. So I'm not sure where we cut off, but what I'll describe is for the update to the guidance. So really what you have incremental M&A completed, as we've said, we have sort of $70 million to $80 million of incremental M&A contribution. Recall when we gave the guidance for the year of the $105 million, we said roughly $30 million of that was already included in the base guide as that happened on January 1. So you have an incremental, call it, $70 million, $80 million coming out of M&A.

是的。對不起，科納克。所以我不確定我們在哪裡截止，但我將描述的是指南的更新。因此，正如我們所說，您真正完成的增量併購，我們有 7000 萬至 8000 萬美元的增量併購貢獻。回想一下，當我們給出 1.05 億美元的年度指導時，我們說其中大約 3000 萬美元已經包含在基本指導中，因為那是在 1 月 1 日發生的。因此，你從併購中獲得的增量收入，可以稱之為 7,000 萬美元、8,000 萬美元。

You then have $75 million of FX headwinds going against you, and that's just the translational impact of FX. So those are a bit of a wash. So what are you left with? You're left with organic growth, and we're effectively bringing up pricing 50 bps, bringing up volume roughly 50 bps, right, are driving that? And then going against that on the organic side is really commodity and fuel surcharges, right, commodity price about $10 million sort of headwind versus the original guide and same with fuel surcharges, right?

然後，您將面臨 7500 萬美元的外匯逆風，而這只是外匯的翻譯影響。所以這些都有點不一樣。那你還剩下什麼？您剩下的就是有機成長，我們有效地將價格提高了 50 個基點，將交易量提高了大約 50 個基點，對嗎，正在推動這一點？然後，在有機方面與之相反的實際上是商品和燃油附加費，對吧，商品價格與原始指南相比大約有 1000 萬美元的逆風，燃油附加費也是如此，對吧？

And that's just a function of where the sort of diesel price went. You have a $5 million, $10 million headwind on the fuel surcharge line just as that rerates are tied to sort of diesel pricing. So you put those, those are the pieces at the revenue line and the EBITDA bridge just sort of follows accordingly, right? I mean the M&A comes in at slightly decretive margins initially. Price all falls to the bottom line, volume falls at an appropriate margin.

這只是柴油價格走勢的函數。由於燃油附加費的重新定價與柴油價格掛鉤，因此燃油附加費方面面臨 500 萬美元、1000 萬美元的阻力。所以你把這些放在收入線上，這些部分和 EBITDA 橋就相應地跟隨，對嗎？我的意思是，併購最初帶來的利潤率略有下降。價格全部跌到底線，成交量也隨之下降。

The fuel surcharge really doesn't have an impact falling down to EBITDA as you're getting an equal and offsetting change to sort of diesel costs. And the commodity falls all to the bottom line, right? So that $10 million is a straight flow through. The FX is at roughly the consolidated margins.

燃油附加費實際上不會對 EBITDA 產生影響，因為柴油成本會受到相等且抵銷的變化。而商品全部落到底線，對嗎？因此，這 1000 萬美元是直接流入的。外匯大致處於合併利潤率。

And when you do that bridge, what you're going to be left with is an incremental EBITDA tick up, and that's less about the revenue, but just more about the sort of operational efficiency, productivity and self-help levers we've been realizing and getting incremental benefit from that in the current year period.

當你搭建這座橋樑時，你將獲得增量的 EBITDA 成長，這與收入關係不大，而更多地與我們在本年度期間已經實現並從中獲得增量收益的運營效率、生產力和自助槓桿有關。

That's really helpful. And then in terms of the second quarter margin drivers, I think you guys had a pretty solid margin expansion compared to the rest of the industry? I mean I think you talked about sort of unique markets for you guys and some of the levers. Is there -- is it possible to kind of attribute some of these margin expansions you saw in Q2 to some buckets like EPR to the volumes and I don't know, maybe some commodity impact and all that?

這真的很有幫助。那麼就第二季的利潤驅動因素而言，我認為與行業其他公司相比，你們的利潤率成長相當穩健？我的意思是，我認為你們談到了您獨特的市場和一些槓桿。有沒有可能——您在第二季度看到的利潤率擴張可以歸因於一些因素，例如 EPR 和銷量，我不知道，也許是一些商品影響等等？

Yes, so great question. Again, margin expansion industry-leading, we believe, and something we're sort of proud of. But also as anticipated, obviously, you can see the Canadian segment margin expanding significantly as we're sort of getting the benefits of those investments that we've been made. So that's sort of been beneficial.

是的，這個問題問得非常好。再次，我們相信利潤率擴張處於行業領先地位，並且我們對此感到自豪。但正如預期的那樣，顯然，您可以看到加拿大分部的利潤率大幅擴大，因為我們正在從所做的投資中獲益。所以這還是有好處的。

But what we historically do and happy to walk through is the sort of impact of the exogenous factors, right? So if you think for the quarter, commodities was about a 30 basis points headwind to margin, whereas RNG and fuel to other sort of externalities, if you were about a 25 basis points tailwind, right?

但我們歷史上所做的事情和樂於經歷的事情是外在因素的影響，對嗎？因此，如果您認為本季大宗商品對利潤率造成約 30 個基點的逆風，而 RNG 和燃料對其他外部因素造成約 25 個基點的順風，對嗎？

Additionally, Q2 is the last quarter where we're getting the tailwind from the Michigan divestiture. So that was about a sort of a 75 basis points tailwind year-over-year. And then the M&A contribution for this quarter came in about 20 basis point headwind.

此外，第二季是我們獲得密西根資產剝離順風的最後一個季度。因此，與去年同期相比，這大約是 75 個基點的順風。本季的併購貢獻則遭遇了約 20 個基點的逆風。

So when you put those all together, you still left for sort of roughly 160 basis point, 170 basis points of underlying base business margin expansion. And in there, you have all the pieces. You have the price cost spread, you have EPR, you have the realization of the ongoing operational efficiencies, both synergy realization and the cost optimization efforts we've been undertaking.

因此，當你把這些都放在一起時，你仍然會得到大約 160 個基點、170 個基點的基礎業務利潤率擴張。在那裡，你擁有了所有的碎片。您有價格成本差價，有 EPR，有持續營運效率的實現，包括協同效應的實現和我們一直在進行的成本優化工作。

Yeah, no, again, I appreciate the time. Thank you.

是的，不，我再次感謝您抽出時間。謝謝。

Michael Doumet, National Bank of Canada.

加拿大國家銀行的麥可‧杜梅特 (Michael Doumet)。

Hey, good morning, guys. Nice quarter. As it relates to margins and Investor Day expectations. And I think you discussed some of this already, but the guidance margin expansion in 2025 suggests you're moving obviously a little bit faster, particularly given some of the headwinds, the known headwinds this year, some of the RNG benefits that you're expecting to realize in the outer years.

嘿，大家早安。不錯的季度。因為它與利潤率和投資者日預期有關。我認為您已經討論過其中的一些內容，但 2025 年的指導利潤率擴張表明您的行動顯然要快一些，特別是考慮到一些不利因素，今年已知的不利因素，以及您預計在未來幾年實現的一些 RNG 收益。

Would you characterize it as executing more quickly and therefore, maybe pulling forward some of that margin expansion? Or are you just finding more ways to expand at this point?

您是否認為它的執行速度更快，因此可能提前實現部分利潤擴張？或者您只是在尋找更多擴展方式？

Yes, Mike, that's a great question. I think it's predicated on -- it was never an assumption that, that march to the low to mid-30s margin that we articulated in the Investor Day was going to be straight line, right? Because there's been some investments over the past few years into things like RNG and EPR that we're supposed to start bearing fruit in a material way as of '25.

是的，麥克，這是一個很好的問題。我認為這是有前提的——我們從來都不是假設，我們在投資者日所闡述的向 30 年代初期到中期利潤率邁進會是直線的，對嗎？因為過去幾年我們在 RNG 和 EPR 等領域進行了一些投資，預計從 25 年開始這些投資將開始取得實質成果。

So I think you're getting this initial sort of pick up and lift from some of those investments. That's going to give some significant tailwind to that walk to our margin goal, if you will. So that's certainly part of it. But look, we're raising the guidance another 20 basis points at the midpoint and I think that is the acceleration, right? Because we are achieving higher margin than what the initial sort of plan was.

所以我認為你會從這些投資中獲得初步的回升和提升。如果你願意的話，這將為我們的利潤目標的實現提供一些顯著的推動力。這當然是其中的一部分。但你看，我們在中間點將指導價又提高了 20 個基點，我認為這就是加速，對嗎？因為我們實現的利潤比最初的計畫還要高。

And I think that could be viewed as the sort of acceleration component but the outsized margin expansion of '25 was always sort of part of the plan. And I think '26 has an opportunity to be another one, right, because you're going to continue to have sort of EPR in some of these other investments remain fully sort of come online at their margin accretive profiles.

我認為這可以被視為一種加速因素，但 25 年的超額利潤擴張始終是計劃的一部分。我認為 26 年有機會成為另一個，對吧，因為你將繼續在其他一些投資中擁有 EPR，並保持其利潤增值概況的完全上線。

So I think we'd be remiss that at this point based on '25 performance to now say the new bogey is something materially higher than mid-30s. But certainly, performance like this further enforces our confidence and the ability to execute on that plan that we put out.

因此，我認為，如果根據 25 年的表現就斷言新的柏忌值明顯高於 30 多歲，那就太失職了。但可以肯定的是，這樣的表現進一步增強了我們的信心和執行我們所製定的計劃的能力。

And I guess if I go back to the prior expectations for EPR related EBITDA growth through '27. I mean like it seems to me that the EPR should provide call it, like a baseline organic growth of about $80 million to $100 million per year. And I know that could deviate year-to-year. But does that not translate into view that GFL should be a consistent 1% to 2% organic volume growth going forward before layering other expectations? Just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

我想如果我回到之前對 27 年 EPR 相關 EBITDA 成長的預期。我的意思是，在我看來，EPR 應該提供每年約 8,000 萬至 1 億美元的基線有機成長。我知道每年的情況可能會有所不同。但這是否意味著，在製定其他預期之前，GFL 未來應該保持 1% 至 2% 的持續有機銷售成長？只是想聽聽你對此的看法。

Well, sorry. But just in terms of the growth, Michael, just to be clear, the majority of EPR is going to be in hand by the end of '25. We're going to have a sort of tail into '26 and then a little bit in '27. But the majority if we quantify the $130 million of EBITDA, you're going to have sort of substantial majority of that in by the end of '26. So this is really a sort of a near-term growth profile and not so much ongoing source of growth over that sort of multiyear projection.

嗯，抱歉。但就成長而言，邁克爾，需要明確的是，大部分 EPR 將在 25 年底到位。我們將在 26 年取得某種程度的進展，然後在 27 年取得一點進展。但如果我們量化 1.3 億美元的 EBITDA，那麼到 26 年底，你將獲得其中的絕大部分。因此，這實際上是一種短期成長概況，而不是多年預測中的持續成長來源。

Okay, no, thanks. I appreciate it.

好的，不用了，謝謝。我很感激。

Jim Schumm, TD Cowen.

吉姆·舒姆，TD Cowen。

Hey guys, good morning, nice quarter. In the past, I believe you've noted exposure to economically sensitive businesses. There's only roughly 3% of your revenues versus like a much higher double-digit number at most of your peers.

嘿，大家早上好，這是一個美好的季度。過去，我相信您已經注意到對經濟敏感型企業的投資。您的收入僅佔約 3%，而大多數同行的收入則高達兩位數。

So it seems like an important competitive advantage right now. What do you think drives the difference with peers? And can you sort of outline what your exposure is, specifically, the construction volumes or what your exposure is to industrial volumes separately?

因此，這現在看起來是一個重要的競爭優勢。您認為是什麼導致了與同行之間的差異？您能否概述一下您的風險敞口，具體來說是建築量還是工業量的風險敞口？

Yes. I think the historical comment was largely driven around C&D related volumes, right? C&D related volumes at GFL have been sub sort of 5%. Industrial volumes are significantly more than that. So I think that would be pretty consistent with our peers. I think some of the difference you're seeing is just -- is regionally focused, right, and where there's more impacts coming from tariffs and tariffs-related businesses.

是的。我認為歷史評論主要圍繞 C&D 相關卷，對嗎？GFL 的 C&D 相關量已佔 5% 以下。工業產量則遠高於此。所以我認為這與我們的同行非常一致。我認為您所看到的一些差異只是——以區域為重點，對吧，並且關稅和關稅相關業務的影響更大。

And so I think -- I don't think our business is materially different. I just -- I can't speak for what others have in terms of C&D volumes at our CMV volumes, that reference was made to C&D volumes that were sub 5% of the overall sort of book of business.

所以我認為——我認為我們的業務並沒有實質的差異。我只是——我無法代表其他人談論我們的 CMV 交易量的 C&D 交易量，我指的是 C&D 交易量佔整體業務量的 5% 以下。

Okay. And then maybe could you just update us on your fleet conversion, either to automated trucks or CNG trucks? What's going on with that at the moment and just how that's proceeding?

好的。然後，您能否向我們介紹一下您的車隊轉換情況，是轉換為自動卡車還是 CNG 卡車？目前情況如何？進展如何？

Yes. I mean if you look back to the Investor Day, I mean, I think roughly sort of 20%-ish -- 20%, 25% of the fleet today is CNG. We had the ability to move that to sort of somewhere between 50% and 55% reasonably within the book. I think that is largely in track over the next sort of three to four years. So I think we're 50% of the way there in terms of our CNG and automated fleet conversion.

是的。我的意思是，如果你回顧投資者日，我認為現在大約有 20% 到 20%、25% 的車隊是 CNG。我們有能力在書中將其合理地調整到 50% 到 55% 之間。我認為，未來三到四年內這一進程將基本步入正軌。因此我認為我們在 CNG 和自動化車隊轉換方面已經完成了 50%。

I think a lot of that will happen on some of the backs of these EPR collection contracts where we're moving away from rear load collection into more automated collection and moving those trucks off of diesel on to the compressed natural gas in some of our large residential contracts as well as on the city of Toronto renewals, we basically renewed two of our largest municipal contracts that come on -- the renewals take place in sort of mid-2026.

我認為，這些變化很大程度上將得益於 EPR 收集合同，在這些合同中，我們將從後部裝載收集轉向更加自動化的收集，並將卡車從柴油轉向壓縮天然氣，這體現在我們的一些大型住宅合同以及多倫多市的續約中，我們基本上續簽了兩份最大的市政合同——續約將在 2026 年中期進行。

So again, all of those trucks will be converted to compressed natural gas. So I think you'll see that number start moving up materially over the course of '26 and '27.

因此，所有這些卡車都將改用壓縮天然氣。因此我認為你會看到這個數字在 26 年和 27 年期間開始大幅上升。

Okay, great thanks guys.

好的，非常感謝大家。

Chris Murray, ATB Capital Markets.

ATB 資本市場公司的 Chris Murray。

Yeah, thanks guys. Good morning. Maybe just a quick kind of question on M&A and just what we're thinking about. If you look at M&A, the contribution for 2026 as it stands today, like let's not talk about future acquisitions, what's the rollover amount that you're thinking that you have today?

是的，謝謝大家。早安.也許只是一個關於併購的簡單問題，以及我們正在考慮什麼。如果您看一下併購，那麼就目前的情況來看，2026 年的貢獻，例如我們不談論未來的收購，您認為今天的展期金額是多少？

Chris, it's Luke speaking here. So I mean you bought $105 million for the year. The vast majority of that was bought very early in the year. So you call it roughly, you're left with $30 million to $40 million bought in Q2. So you're going to have roughly half year conversion. I think where we sit today, the rollover is probably measured in, call it, $10 million to $30 million of revenue.

克里斯，我是盧克。所以我的意思是你今年買了 1.05 億美元。其中絕大部分都是在今年年初購買的。所以你粗略地算一下，你在第二季度買了 3000 萬到 4000 萬美元。因此，您將需要大約半年的時間進行轉換。我認為，就我們目前的情況來看，展期收入可能是以 1,000 萬美元到 3,000 萬美元來衡量的。

I think what Patrick's prepared remark comment was really referring to, if you go and deploy another sort of $600 million on the last quarter of the year or back half, say, roughly round numbers, that means you're buying $300 million of revenue. The majority of that is going to be rolled over into next year, and that's what's going to be give rise to a good head start as you think about 2026 growth.

我認為帕特里克準備好的評論實際上指的是，如果你在今年最後一個季度或下半年再投入 6 億美元，大致的數字，這意味著你購買了 3 億美元的收入。其中大部分將延續到明年，這將為 2026 年的成長帶來良好的開端。

Okay. That's helpful. And then another question, just as I'm sitting here kind of listening to the call, we've heard about potentially some proceeds from GIP, certainly the maybe the cash flow conversion number moves up. And I start thinking about leverage, it sounds like you guys are probably comfortable running plus or amount 3 times now.

好的。這很有幫助。然後是另一個問題，就在我坐在這裡聽電話的時候，我們聽說 GIP 可能會帶來一些收益，當然現金流轉換數字可能會上升。我開始考慮槓桿，聽起來你們現在可能已經習慣了運行加法或 3 倍的金額。

So if we start thinking about capital allocation, the business is going to throw off probably enough cash fund what I would call normal course, CapEx probably allow for kind of an M&A bucket that's something where you're at right now.

因此，如果我們開始考慮資本配置，企業可能會拋出足夠的現金基金，我稱之為正常過程，資本支出可能允許某種併購桶，這就是你現在所處的狀況。

Outside of maybe proceeds from things like a GIP being used for outside share repurchases or something like that. How are you guys starting to think about capital allocation? Because now as the business continues to mature, is there room to start increasing the dividend to bring it more kind of in line with peers? I know historically, it's always been it's there, but the focus was more on M&A. Is there more a thought around the balance and how you're going to deploy capital as you're kind of getting to be more stable and maybe better earnings and cash flow generation?

除 GIP 等收益之外，還可能用於外部股票回購或類似用途。你們是如何開始考慮資本配置的？因為現在隨著業務的不斷成熟，是否有空間開始增加股息以使其與同行更加一致？我知道從歷史上看，它一直存在，但重點更多地放在併購上。隨著公司變得更加穩定，獲利和現金流可能也變得更好，您是否更多地考慮平衡以及如何部署資本？

Yes. I mean, we said that. We will as part of the capital allocation program and the deleveraging program and obviously, with the continued repatriation of funds from some of these assets that we don't own and are not part of sort of our income statement today, I think that affords us ultimate flexibility, again, to continue executing on share buybacks and increased dividends.

是的。我的意思是，我們說過這件事。我們將作為資本配置計劃和去槓桿計劃的一部分，顯然，隨著資金繼續從我們不擁有且不屬於我們今天的損益表的一些資產中匯回，我認為這為我們提供了最大的靈活性，可以繼續執行股票回購和增加股息。

So that is part of the plan. We think over the next sort of 12 to 24 months that will continue to be part of sort of our capital deployment plan. So you are correct in saying that and that dividend will start normalizing sort of over that period.

這是計劃的一部分。我們認為，在未來 12 到 24 個月內，這將繼續成為我們資本配置計畫的一部分。所以您說得對，股息在那段期間內將開始正常化。

I'll leave it there. Thanks.

我就把它留在那裡。謝謝。

Jon Windham, UBS.

瑞銀的喬恩溫德姆。

Congratulations on the result, bucking the trend here on a better-than-expected result. Actually had a very big picture question. If we could talk about a little bit. The Canadian dollar, US dollar ratio has been more or less range-bound for about a decade, seem like 125 and 141, something like that.

祝賀這一結果，逆轉趨勢，取得了比預期更好的結果。實際上有一個非常大的問題。如果我們可以稍微討論一下的話。加幣與美元的比率大約十年來一直處於區間波動，似乎是 125 和 141 之類的。

Given all the political uncertainty and a lot of changes, how do you feel and what is the strategy to -- how do you feel insulated to maybe bigger swings in that ratio? If you could just talk through how you might be insulated in your hedging mitigation strategy should there be a bigger move outside of this sort of 10-year range?

考慮到所有的政治不確定性和許多變化，您感覺如何？您的策略是什麼？您認為如何才能避免該比率出現更大的波動？如果您可以簡單談談如何在對沖緩解策略中保護自己，那麼在這種 10 年範圍之外是否會出現更大的舉措？

Jon. great question. I mean often, we're in the weeds of price or volume. It's nice to hear something a little bit sort of bigger picture. Certainly something we give a lot of thought to, particularly considering we are the one outlier to the peer group, right, in terms of the implications of changes in foreign currency as we're moving in the opposite direction.

喬恩，好問題。我的意思是，我們常常陷入價格或數量的困境。很高興聽到一些更宏觀的見解。當然，我們對此進行了深思熟慮，特別是考慮到我們是同行中的一個異類，就外幣變化的影響而言，我們正朝著相反的方向發展。

Underlying, when you look, there's a pretty good and nice natural underlying economic hedge when you look at across sort of interest expense, capital deployment, et cetera, between the cash flows that we bring in and those that go out.

從根本上看，當我們觀察利息支出、資本配置等時，就會發現我們流入的現金流和流出的現金流之間存在著相當好的自然的潛在經濟對沖。

So from our perspective, what we're really at today is more sort of translational type issue. I think the reality of the business and direction travel is Canada is still a massive growth market for us and will be. But the law of big numbers is going to have the US proportion business grow at a faster clip.

因此從我們的角度來看，我們今天真正面臨的是翻譯類型的問題。我認為商務和方向旅行的現實是加拿大對我們來說仍然是一個巨大的成長市場，而且將會如此。但大數定律將使美國比例業務以更快的速度成長。

And I think you're going to get to a point where a US dollar functional currency is probably the right choice for the business and you would flip to be a US dollar reporter and be consistent with our sort of peer group. And I don't think that's not a 2025 activity, but I'd say that's more in the sort of near to medium term versus the long term.

我認為，你會達到這樣的境界：美元功能貨幣可能是企業的正確選擇，你會轉而成為美元報告者，並與我們的同行保持一致。我不認為這不是 2025 年的活動，但我認為這更多的是近期到中期的活動，而不是長期的活動。

In terms of the actual underlying economics, I mean, obviously, as our business mix changes between Canadian and US that's something we'll continue to evaluate. As I said today, there's a pretty nice natural economic hedge between interest expense and CapEx. But obviously, as the ratios change, it's something we'll sort of stay on top of and obviously, there's a whole magnitude of synthetic or direct hedging instruments that can be used to navigate to the extent our exposures are no longer naturally economically hedged.

就實際的潛在經濟因素而言，我的意思是，顯然，隨著我們的業務組合在加拿大和美國之間發生變化，我們將繼續評估這一點。正如我今天所說，利息支出和資本支出之間存在著相當好的自然經濟對沖。但顯然，隨著比率的變化，我們會保持關注，並且顯然，有大量的合成或直接對沖工具可用於應對我們的風險敞口不再自然地進行經濟對沖的程度。

Really appreciate it. Thanks.

真的很感激。謝謝。

Tobey Sommer, Truist Securities.

托比‧索默 (Tobey Sommer)，Truist Securities。

Hi, it's Henry on for Tobey. Maybe just to start with kind of going back to industrial and construction activity and the macro, obviously, soft, you mentioned the soft environment. Just your thoughts on how those areas look kind of progressing through the year and into '26. Do you see any sort of a rebound? Or is it kind of too early to tell?

嗨，我是亨利，替換托比。也許首先要回顧工業和建築活動以及宏觀，顯然是軟的，您提到了軟環境。您只是對這些領域在今年以及 26 年的發展前景有何看法。您看到任何形式的反彈嗎？還是現在說還太早？

I mean, listen, it's very hard to tell. Obviously, we're in a very sort of uncertain environment, just politically and what's happening sort of globally with tariffs, et cetera. And I think from my perspective, I personally believe that I don't see C&D volumes recovering anytime too soon. I think once we get more clarity on tariffs, et cetera, I think the industrial market will pick back up and people will figure out what the new norm is and how they're going to operate or how they can operate and what environment they will be operating under.

我的意思是，聽著，這很難說。顯然，我們處在一個非常不確定的環境中，不僅是政治上，還有全球範圍內的關稅等情況。我認為從我的角度來看，我個人認為 C&D 數量不會很快恢復。我認為，一旦我們對關稅等問題有了更清晰的認識，工業市場就會回暖，人們就會弄清楚新的常態是什麼，他們將如何運作，或者他們將如何運作，以及他們將在什麼樣的環境下運作。

I think just the uncertainty in the market of today, a 10% tariff, tomorrow, 50% tariff, maybe a 30% tariff, I think that's just limiting people's ability to make real capital investments at the moment. And I think that will reverse. It has to reverse. It will just be a question of when, but I think we are months to a year away from that because, again, once those decisions are finally made, I think then it takes time to sort of ramp back up.

我認為，今天市場的不確定性，10%的關稅，明天50%的關稅，也許是30%的關稅，我認為這限制了人們目前進行實際資本投資的能力。我認為這種情況將會逆轉。它必須逆轉。這只是一個時間問題，但我認為我們還需要幾個月到一年的時間，因為一旦最終做出這些決定，我認為就需要時間來恢復。

So we're not anticipating anything material to come back for the balance of this year and sort of into the beginning of next year. But we'll see how it goes. It seems like there's some clarity coming forward, but I think people just need to get a really good handle on what environment we're going to be operating under.

因此，我們預計今年餘下的時間以及明年年初不會出現任何實質的進展。但我們會看看事情進展如何。看起來似乎有一些清晰的跡象，但我認為人們只需要真正了解我們將在什麼樣的環境下運作。

That's very helpful. And just a quick one. With the new US administration, I'm just curious if you all are seeing anything around an easier path for M&A, more of a deregulatory environment, anything around like a lack of second request helping that out? And I guess, in the long term here over the next three, four years, do you expect that environment to get easier?

這非常有幫助。這只是一個簡單的例子。我很好奇，在美國新政府上台後，你們是否看到了一些關於併購的更便捷的途徑，更放鬆管制的環境，以及是否有任何關於減少第二次請求的幫助？我想，從長遠來看，在未來三、四年內，您是否認為這種環境會變得更寬鬆？

Yes. I mean I think under -- for large-scale M&A, I guess, in theory, the process maybe will get more straightforward and maybe a little bit less scrutiny. But by and large, we've never had a real issue getting through the sort of HSR process. I mean when we look at M&A opportunities, we assess our ability to move through that process relatively quickly, just given the number of opportunities we have.

是的。我的意思是，我認為，對於大規模併購，從理論上講，這個過程可能會變得更加直接，審查可能會更少。但總的來說，我們在完成這類 HSR 流程時從未遇到真正的問題。我的意思是，當我們考慮併購機會時，我們會根據我們擁有的機會數量來評估我們相對快速地完成流程的能力。

And keep in mind, if we're doing 45 to 50 acquisitions a year, we may have one or two that cross that threshold of actually needing HSR approval. So the lion's share of what we're doing is well under the HSR cap today of -- I think it's today, it's like $125 million, $127 million of gross purchase price and lion's share of what we're doing today is under that. So not a huge differentiator today for us given the administration change. But if we were looking at some large-scale M&A, maybe the process would be a little bit quicker, but nothing material.

請記住，如果我們每年進行 45 到 50 次收購，那麼可能有一兩次收購會跨越實際需要 HSR 批准的門檻。因此，我們目前所做的大部分工作都遠低於今天的 HSR 上限 - 我認為今天，它的總購買價格約為 1.25 億美元、1.27 億美元，我們目前所做的大部分工作都低於這個上限。因此，考慮到政府的變動，今天對我們來說並沒有太大的區別。但如果我們考慮一些大規模的併購，也許這個過程會快一點，但沒有什麼實質的進展。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tami Zakaria, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

Hey, good morning. Is my line on? This is Tami Zakaria from JPMorgan. Just one question. Given some of the labor strike that's ongoing in the industry, are you considering any scenario where there could be incremental wage pressure maybe in the future?

嘿，早安。我的線路通嗎？我是摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。只有一個問題。鑑於該行業正在進行的一些罷工，您是否考慮過未來可能出現薪資壓力增加的情況？

Any thoughts on mitigating that? I heard that you're raising your pricing outlook. But any comments on what you could expect from a price/cost spread perspective in the medium term if there is, in fact, any wage inflation in the industry?

有什麼想法可以緩解這種情況嗎？我聽說你們正在提高定價預期。但是，如果該行業確實出現薪資上漲，您能從中期價格/成本價差的角度來預測嗎？

Yes. So I think from where we sit today, I mean, sub 10% of our employee base is unionized today. So a fairly de minimis amount of unionized workers. That being said, where we sit today, we think throughout the book, we're always constantly revisiting employee wages, et cetera. We don't think strike mandates are in the cards of GFL in any material way.

是的。所以我認為從我們目前的情況來看，我們目前只有不到 10% 的員工加入了工會。因此工會工人的數量相當少。話雖如此，就我們今天所處的位置而言，我們認為在整本書中，我們總是不斷地重新審視員工薪資等等。我們認為，從任何實質意義上來說，GFL 都不會實施罷工命令。

And we think with the ramp in labor costs between late '21 and through '24, we think the lion's share of our drivers are fairly compensated today and above market for where we're operating. So we don't see that as a material risk within the existing book today. But obviously, we're always constantly reevaluating it, and we continue to do that on a sort of on a quarterly basis.

我們認為，隨著 21 年末至 24 年勞動力成本的上升，我們認為我們大部分司機目前都獲得了公平的報酬，並且高於我們營運所在地的市場水平。因此，我們認為這在現有帳簿中不構成重大風險。但顯然，我們總是在不斷地重新評估它，並且我們會以每季為單位繼續這樣做。

But I think we feel pretty good. And I think the turnover stats amongst all of the majors, I think, sort of reinforce that point. You don't have drivers hopping around going and looking for an extra dollar here or there. You have turnover rates coming down to more normalized levels that you would have seen pre-COVID.

但我認為我們感覺很好。我認為所有主要行業的營業額統計數據都證實了這一點。你不會看到司機到處跑來跑去，到處尋找額外的錢。您的營業額率已降至比疫情前更為正常的水平。

So with voluntary turnover rates in the high teens today at GFL, we think that is a comfortable place to be. It's a happy balance. Obviously, we want to continue pushing that as low as possible, but that's a very good indicator in terms of where we are on wages for the environment that we're operating in today.

因此，鑑於目前 GFL 的自願離職率已達到十幾歲，我們認為這是一個令人欣慰的水平。這是一種快樂的平衡。顯然，我們希望繼續將這一水準壓得盡可能低，但就我們目前所處的營運環境下的薪資水準而言，這是一個非常好的指標。

Understood. Wonderful. Thank you.

明白了。精彩的。謝謝。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

There are no questions waiting at this time. I will pass the conference back over to Patrick for any additional remarks.

目前沒有問題。我將把會議交還給帕特里克，讓他發表任何補充意見。

Thank you very much, everyone, and we look forward to speaking to everyone after our Q3 results. Thanks for joining.

非常感謝大家，我們期待在第三季業績公佈後與大家交談。感謝您的加入。

This concludes the GFL second quarter 2025 earnings call. Thank you for participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

GFL 2025 年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。