奇異 (GE) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收成長 24%,EPS 成長 22%,自由現金流成長 43%;訂單成長 17%,營運利潤成長 18%
    • 全面上修 2026 年指引:營收成長由低雙位數上修至高雙位數,EPS 指引上調至 $7.65-$7.85,FCF 指引上調至 $8.9-$9.2B
    • 市場需求強勁,商用服務與設備訂單與營收均創新高,供應鏈瓶頸持續改善
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 商用服務需求強勁,服務營收上半年成長 32%,訂單與營收均雙位數成長
      • LEAP 引擎平台快速成長,安裝基數預計至 2030 年翻倍,LEAP 交付量 Q2 成長 41%
      • FLIGHT DECK 數位化與 AI 應用推動生產效率提升,關鍵零組件生產與檢驗時間大幅縮短
      • 國防事業持續獲得新訂單與技術里程碑,DPT 訂單與營收雙位數成長,推進新一代引擎與合作專案
    • 風險:
      • 供應鏈瓶頸與備品延遲仍存在,Q2 備品延遲較前季成長 20%
      • 安裝引擎成長與新產品(如 GE9X)初期毛利較低,短期壓抑整體利潤率
      • 宏觀環境仍具不確定性,雖目前需求韌性佳,但未來仍需密切觀察
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 訂單:Q2 成長 17%,CES +18%,DPT +12%
    • 營收:Q2 成長 24%,CES +27%,DPT +16%
    • 營運利潤:Q2 $2.7B,成長 18%,CES +20%,DPT +18%
    • 自由現金流:Q2 $3B,成長 43%,上半年成長 31%
    • CES 服務營收:Q2 +26%,上半年 +32%,LEAP 內部 shop visit +50%
    • 設備交付:Q2 引擎交付量 +26%,LEAP +24%,寬體交付 +30%
    • DPT 訂單:Q2 +12%,上半年 +40%;營收 Q2 +16%,上半年 +17%
    • 商用服務積壓訂單:約 $170B,較 2024 年底增加近 $30B
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 年營收預估高雙位數成長(由低雙位數上修)
    • CES 營收預估成長約 20%,商用服務成長低 20%(均上修)
    • 營運利潤預估 $10.55B-$10.75B,CES $10.25B-$10.35B,DPT $1.6B-$1.7B
    • EPS 指引 $7.65-$7.85(上調 $0.35)
    • 自由現金流指引 $8.9B-$9.2B(上調 $650M)
    • CapEx 年度投資超過 $1B
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 服務訂單與營收強勁,對下半年與 2027 年展望如何?指引中不確定性如何考量?
      A: 需求持續強勁,客戶行為未見異常,預期下半年航班數將逐步回升,服務營收下半年仍雙位數成長,2027 年展望樂觀。
    • Q: 自由現金流轉強,未來幾年現金流是否會隨獲利持續成長?
      A: 現金流將隨獲利成長,雖然轉換率將趨於正常化,但預期仍有顯著現金流增長,無重大一次性項目影響。
    • Q: LEAP shop visit 成長與耐久性升級對未來營運的影響?是否有提前拉貨現象?
      A: LEAP shop visit 預計至 2030 年 CAGR 約 25%,耐久性升級將逐步推動,現階段不會提前拉貨,全面升級需至 2030 年代初完成。
    • Q: 新一代引擎成本與售後服務成本高,航空公司能否承受?GE 如何回應?
      A: 短期內積極支援客戶,提升備品與維修效率,長期持續推動耐久性升級與成本改善,客戶對 LEAP 節能表現仍高度肯定。
    • Q: CES 邊際利潤展望?隨供應鏈與營運瓶頸改善,是否有望突破 30%?
      A: 短期內受新引擎安裝與 LEAP/GE9X 初期毛利壓抑,但隨著服務組合優化與規模提升,預期 2028 年後 CES 與公司整體毛利率將擴張。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz, and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    各位女士、先生,大家好,歡迎參加 GE Aerospace 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 我是 Liz,今天將擔任本次會議的協調人。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,本次會議將被錄音。

  • I'd now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Blaire Shoor from the GE Aerospace Investor Relations team. Please proceed.

    現在我想把會議交給今天的主持人——GE Aerospace 投資人關係團隊的 Blaire Shoor。請開始。

  • Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

    Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE Aerospace's second-quarter 2026 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai.

    謝謝你,Liz。歡迎各位參加 GE Aerospace 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與會的有董事長兼執行長 Larry Culp,以及財務長 Rahul Ghai。

  • Many of the statements we're making are forward looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and website, those elements may change as the world changes. Additionally, Larry and Rahul will speak to total company and corporate financial results and guidance today on a non-GAAP basis.

    我們今天所做的許多陳述屬於前瞻性陳述,並以我們對當前世界情勢與業務的最佳判斷為基礎。如同我們在 SEC 申報文件與網站中所述,這些因素可能會隨著世界變化而改變。此外,Larry 與 Rahul 今天將以非 GAAP 基礎說明公司整體與企業層級的財務結果與指引。

  • With that, over to Larry.

    那麼,交給 Larry。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Blaire, thank you, and good morning, everyone.

    Blaire,謝謝你,各位早安。

  • The GE Aerospace team continues to execute with discipline and focus, with our customers at the center of everything we do. Our 57,000 employees remain committed to our purpose: inventing the future of flight, lifting people up, and bringing them home safely.

    GE Aerospace 團隊持續以紀律與專注執行,並將客戶置於我們所做一切的核心。我們 57,000 名員工仍致力於我們的使命:發明飛行的未來、提升人們的生活,並讓他們安全返家。

  • I'd like to open by saying CFM International is supporting our customer, Ryanair, and assisting with the investigation into Flight 1879. Safety is our top priority at all times, and our thoughts are with the passengers, pilots, and crew who were on board.

    我想先說,CFM International 正在支持我們的客戶瑞安航空(Ryanair),並協助對 1879 號航班事件的調查。安全始終是我們的首要優先事項,我們的心與當時在機上的乘客、機師與機組人員同在。

  • The second quarter marked another quarter of significant growth, driven by robust commercial services. Overall, orders were up 17%, with both segments up at least low-double digits. Revenue increased 24%, with CES up 27% and DPT up 16%.

    第二季再次呈現顯著成長,主要由強勁的商用服務業務帶動。整體訂單成長 17%,兩個事業部門皆至少達到低雙位數成長。營收成長 24%,其中 CES 成長 27%,DPT 成長 16%。

  • Operating profit grew 18%, with both segments up at least high-teens, and EPS increased 22%. And free cash flow grew 43%, with conversion over 140%. These results close out an exceptional first half, with orders up 49%, revenue up 27%, EPS growing 24%, and free cash flow increasing 31%, with 115% conversion.

    營業利益成長 18%,兩個事業部門皆至少達到高十幾%的成長,EPS 成長 22%。自由現金流成長 43%,轉換率超過 140%。這些成果為卓越的上半年畫下句點:訂單成長 49%、營收成長 27%、EPS 成長 24%、自由現金流成長 31%,轉換率為 115%。

  • FLIGHT DECK is helping us drive the operational improvements, which undergird the significant output increases, with first-half commercial services revenue up 32% and total engine deliveries up 31%. We remain focused on advancing what matters most to our customers, delivering on robust demand and our backlog of over $210 billion while investing in both current and next-gen technologies to improve time on wing and cost of ownership.

    FLIGHT DECK 正協助我們推動營運改善,支撐產出的大幅提升;上半年商用服務營收成長 32%,引擎總交付量成長 31%。我們仍專注於推進對客戶最重要的事項,在投資現有與下一代技術以提升在翼時間(time on wing)與降低持有成本(cost of ownership)的同時,滿足強勁需求並交付超過 2,100 億美元的在手訂單。

  • Given the strength of our first-half results and momentum for the remainder of the year, this morning, we're raising our 2026 guidance across the board. I'd like to thank the entire GE Aerospace team and our supplier partners for working so well together to deliver for our customers.

    鑑於上半年成果強勁以及今年剩餘期間的動能,今天早上我們全面上調 2026 年指引。我要感謝全體 GE Aerospace 團隊與供應商夥伴的緊密合作,讓我們能為客戶交付成果。

  • Turning to slide 4. FLIGHT DECK continues to strengthen our operational capabilities in safety, quality, delivery, and cost -- always in that order. With demand increasing for the F110 engine, at our site in Lynn, Massachusetts, we used FLIGHT DECK to reduce overall production lead time for a critical component by roughly 60% through the consolidation of key process steps and reducing operator distance traveled. This supported F110 deliveries growing over 50% year over year in the second quarter.

    請看第 4 頁投影片。FLIGHT DECK 持續強化我們在安全、品質、交付與成本方面的營運能力——永遠依此順序。隨著 F110 引擎需求增加,在麻薩諸塞州林恩(Lynn)的據點,我們運用 FLIGHT DECK 透過整併關鍵製程步驟並縮短操作人員移動距離,將某項關鍵零組件的整體生產前置時間縮短約 60%。這使第二季 F110 交付量年增超過 50%。

  • In May, I was in Brazil with the team at Celma, our largest MRO site, where I saw firsthand how we used FLIGHT DECK to reduce CFM56 final assembly lead time by nearly 50%. Actions like this have improved total shop visit turnaround times by about a week since the end of 2025.

    5 月我與團隊前往巴西的 Celma——我們最大的 MRO 據點——親眼看到我們如何運用 FLIGHT DECK 將 CFM56 最終組裝前置時間縮短近 50%。這類行動使自 2025 年底以來,整體進廠維修(shop visit)周轉時間改善約一週。

  • And just last week, we held three kaizens with GKN, a top supplier of fan cases and other key components, to break constraints tied to rate performance. We worked collaboratively together to create detailed visual work instructions, increased capacity, and implemented a 3D inspection technology which led to a 90% improvement in inspection time. Work is now underway to sustain these results and build further momentum.

    就在上週,我們與 GKN(風扇機匣及其他關鍵零組件的主要供應商)舉辦了三場改善活動(kaizen),以突破與產能達成率相關的瓶頸。我們協同合作制定詳細的可視化作業指引、提升產能,並導入 3D 檢測技術,使檢測時間改善 90%。目前正展開工作以維持這些成果並進一步累積動能。

  • At the same time, AI is a force multiplier for FLIGHT DECK. Across our turbine airfoils team, for example, we recently ran several kaizens to improve the demand signal (technical difficulty) to simplify and then using AI to automate the process, we cut the number of demand signals in half and reduced processing time by nearly 90% across 190 parts.

    同時,AI 是 FLIGHT DECK 的力量倍增器。例如在我們的渦輪葉片團隊,我們近期進行了數次改善活動(kaizen),先改善需求訊號(技術難度)以簡化流程,接著運用 AI 進行自動化,將需求訊號數量減半,並在 190 個零件上將處理時間縮短近 90%。

  • Reducing the number of demand signals we send our suppliers helps focus their efforts, leading to priority supplier material input increasing double digits sequentially and year over year again in the second quarter. This supported commercial services revenue up 32% in the first half, including record internal shop visit output in the second quarter and first-half total engine deliveries up 31%, including LEAP engines up 41%.

    減少我們發送給供應商的需求訊號數量,有助於聚焦其投入,使優先供應商的材料投入在第二季無論按季或按年再次呈現雙位數成長。這支撐了上半年商用服務營收成長 32%,其中第二季內部進廠維修產出創新高;上半年引擎總交付量成長 31%,其中 LEAP 引擎成長 41%。

  • We're also expanding capacity to meet growing aftermarket demand for LEAP, as the installed base is expected to more than double between now and 2030. Last week, we celebrated with MTU the grand opening of their new maintenance facility in Fort Worth, which recently inducted their first LEAP-1B engine.

    我們也在擴充產能,以滿足 LEAP 日益成長的售後市場需求,因為其裝機基數預期在現在到 2030 年間將增加一倍以上。上週我們與 MTU 一同慶祝其位於沃斯堡(Fort Worth)的新維修設施盛大開幕,該設施近期已接收其第一具 LEAP-1B 引擎進廠。

  • All in, we're making meaningful progress with FLIGHT DECK. And while there's always more to do, we delivered substantial improvement in the first half, and our teams remain focused on meeting customer expectations.

    總體而言,我們透過 FLIGHT DECK 取得了具體且重要的進展。雖然永遠還有更多工作要做,但我們在上半年交出顯著改善,而團隊仍專注於滿足客戶期望。

  • Shifting to slide 5. While the environment remains dynamic, aftermarket demand has been resilient. First-half departures were roughly flat, but we have not observed any changes in customer behavior. We expect a gradual return to modest departures growth in the second half. And combined with our commercial services backlog of roughly $170 billion, we remain well positioned for services growth in 2026 and beyond.

    接著看第 5 頁投影片。儘管環境仍具動態變化,售後市場需求展現韌性。上半年航班起降(departures)大致持平,但我們未觀察到客戶行為有任何改變。我們預期下半年航班起降將逐步回到溫和成長。再加上約 1,700 億美元的商用服務在手訂單,我們仍具備良好條件,在 2026 年及其後推動服務成長。

  • Demand continues to be robust for LEAP, our fastest-growing platform, as demonstrated by Copa Airlines recently selecting up to 120 LEAP-1B engines to power their growing fleet of 737 MAX aircraft. In addition, maturing time on wing and lowering cost of ownership remain critical priorities for our customers.

    LEAP 作為我們成長最快的平台,需求持續強勁;例如哥巴航空(Copa Airlines)近期選擇最多 120 具 LEAP-1B 引擎,為其擴張中的 737 MAX 機隊提供動力。此外,延長在翼時間並降低持有成本仍是客戶的關鍵優先事項。

  • We recently achieved a major milestone, completing the certification for the LEAP-1B durability kit, including the upgraded HPT blade. This is expected to deliver approximately a two-fold improvement in time on wing with full MRO and new make cutover expected early next year.

    我們近期達成一項重大里程碑,完成 LEAP-1B 耐久性套件(durability kit)的認證,其中包含升級版 HPT 葉片。預期可使在翼時間提升約兩倍,並預計於明年初完成全面 MRO 與新製切換(cutover)。

  • At the same time, we're improving fleet turnaround times, which are now around 100 days, down over two weeks year over year. Keeping customer fleets flying is critical, and we've reached nearly zero grounded fleet-powered aircraft due to engines, supporting our customers' need for reliable lift.

    同時,我們也在改善機隊周轉時間,目前約為100天,較去年同期縮短超過兩週。讓客戶機隊持續飛行至關重要;由於引擎因素導致的機隊動力飛機停飛數量已幾乎為零,支援客戶對可靠運力的需求。

  • We're also continuing to advance the future of flight. Through the NASA Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration, or EPFD project, we recently completed a ground test for the megawatt-class hybrid electric demonstrator. This represents a major milestone in understanding hybrid electric flight by bringing together advanced engines, electrical power systems, and controls.

    我們也持續推進飛行的未來。透過NASA電氣化動力系統飛行示範(Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration,EPFD)專案,我們近期完成了兆瓦級混合電動示範機的地面測試。這是理解混合電動飛行的一項重大里程碑,因為它整合了先進引擎、電力系統與控制技術。

  • We've also expanded our relationship with BETA Technologies, who joined the EPFD project last year, to advance the modification of the EPFD aircraft. We're looking forward to this plane being part of the flying display at the Farnborough Airshow next week.

    我們也擴大與BETA Technologies的合作關係;該公司於去年加入EPFD專案,以推進EPFD飛機的改裝。我們期待這架飛機於下週的范堡羅航展(Farnborough Airshow)飛行展示中亮相。

  • Within Defense, we continue to support robust demand for our services and products, both domestically and with allied partners, while advancing next-gen technologies. We had announced an agreement with Turkish Aerospace Industries to provide F404 engines for its HÜRJET advanced jet trainer program, and our CT7 engines were selected to power the UK Ministry of Defense's new medium helicopter program.

    在國防領域,我們持續支援國內及盟友夥伴對我們服務與產品的強勁需求,同時推進下一代技術。我們先前宣布與土耳其航太工業(Turkish Aerospace Industries)達成協議,為其HÜRJET高級噴射教練機計畫提供F404引擎;同時,我們的CT7引擎獲選為英國國防部新型中型直升機計畫提供動力。

  • We completed an assembly readiness review for the XA102 adaptive cycle engine, a critical milestone that moves the program from design into assembly and test. This builds on the progress of the XA100 and validates that the XA102 engine design, manufacturing process, and supply chain are progressing and on schedule.

    我們完成了XA102自適應循環引擎的組裝就緒審查,這是一項關鍵里程碑,使該計畫從設計階段邁入組裝與測試。這是在XA100進展基礎上的延伸,並驗證XA102引擎設計、製造流程與供應鏈均按計畫推進並如期進行。

  • And we continue to strengthen our position in the fast-growing Collaborative Combat Aircraft, or CCA, market with our suite of products. Both the GEK1500 and the GE426 achieved significant milestones to move to preliminary design review, bringing them closer to eventual flight on small and medium-thrust CCAs, respectively. We look forward to sharing more exciting wins and updates at the Farnborough Airshow next week.

    我們也持續以一系列產品強化在快速成長的協同作戰飛機(Collaborative Combat Aircraft,CCA)市場中的地位。GEK1500與GE426皆達成重要里程碑,推進至初步設計審查(PDR),使其分別更接近未來在小推力與中推力CCA上實現飛行。我們期待在下週的范堡羅航展分享更多令人振奮的勝利與最新進展。

  • Stepping back, we're focused on translating our unmatched experience and investments into value for our customers while driving long-term growth.

    回到整體來看,我們專注於將無可匹敵的經驗與投資轉化為客戶價值,同時推動長期成長。

  • Rahul, over to you.

    Rahul,交給你。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Larry, thank you, and good morning, everyone.

    Larry,謝謝你,各位早安。

  • GE Aerospace delivered another strong quarter, marked by double-digit growth across all key metrics. Orders were up 17%, with CES up 18% and DPT up 12%. Revenue increased 24%, marking our fifth consecutive quarter of at least 20% growth; CES was up 27% and DPT grew 16%.

    GE Aerospace再度交出強勁的一季,所有關鍵指標皆呈現雙位數成長。訂單成長17%,其中CES成長18%,DPT成長12%。營收成長24%,為我們連續第五季達成至少20%的成長;其中CES成長27%,DPT成長16%。

  • Operating profit was $2.7 billion, up 18%, driven by services volume and price. As expected, margins decreased 130 basis points to 21.7% from installed engine growth, investments, and inflation. EPS was $2.02, up 22% from increased operating profit, a lower tax rate, and a reduced share count.

    營業利益為27億美元,成長18%,主要由服務量與價格帶動。如預期,受已安裝引擎規模成長、投資與通膨影響,利潤率下降130個基點至21.7%。每股盈餘(EPS)為2.02美元,成長22%,主要來自營業利益增加、較低的稅率以及股數減少。

  • Free cash flow was $3 billion, up 43% from higher earnings, a nearly $200 million reduction in working capital and AD&A, including year-over-year favorability from tariffs. Net income conversion was over 140%.

    自由現金流為30億美元,成長43%,受惠於更高獲利、營運資金與AD&A(應收帳款逾期與預收款)近2億美元的減少,其中包含關稅帶來的年對年有利影響。淨利轉換率超過140%。

  • Our results built on the strong first quarter, with year-to-date revenue up 27%, operating profit up nearly $800 million, largely driven by strong growth in commercial services, and free cash flow up over $1 billion.

    我們的表現延續第一季的強勁動能;年初至今營收成長27%,營業利益增加近8億美元,主要由商用服務的強勁成長帶動,自由現金流增加超過10億美元。

  • Going deeper on our 22% EPS growth this quarter. Increase in operating profit drove $0.31 or over 85% of the improvement in EPS. Growth in segment profit was partially offset by corporate cost from lower interest income and an increase in intercompany eliminations.

    進一步拆解本季EPS成長22%的原因。營業利益增加帶來0.31美元的貢獻,占EPS改善的85%以上。事業部獲利成長部分被公司層級成本抵銷,原因包括利息收入下降以及公司間沖銷(intercompany eliminations)增加。

  • The remainder of the EPS growth was driven by lower tax rate and reduction in share count. Tax rate decreased 2 points to 16.7%, primarily from tax planning and benefit from recent tax legislation. Share count was down 24 million from 2% or 2% from our previously announced capital allocation actions.

    其餘的EPS成長來自較低的稅率與股數減少。稅率下降2個百分點至16.7%,主要受惠於稅務規劃以及近期稅法帶來的利益。股數減少2,400萬股,約下降2%,源自我們先前宣布的資本配置行動。

  • Turning to CES. In the second quarter, orders grew 18%. Services were up 22% and up 34% in the first half. Equipment was up 7% as some orders shifted to second half, while nearly doubling year to date. Revenue increased 27%. Services grew 26%.

    接著看CES。第二季訂單成長18%。服務成長22%,上半年累計成長34%。設備成長7%,因部分訂單移轉至下半年,但年初至今幾乎翻倍。營收成長27%。服務成長26%。

  • Internal shop visit revenue grew 25% from higher volume, including LEAP internal shop visits up over 50% and widebody mix. Spare parts sales increased over 25% from improved material availability that helped us fulfill strong customer demand, growth in LEAP external channel, and price.

    內部維修進廠(internal shop visit)營收因量增而成長25%,其中LEAP內部進廠維修成長超過50%,並受惠於寬體機組合。備品銷售成長超過25%,主要來自材料供應改善使我們得以滿足強勁客戶需求、LEAP外部通路成長,以及價格因素。

  • Even with strong revenue growth, given robust orders, spare parts delinquency, which represents shipments that have been delayed due to material availability constraints, grew 20% sequentially in the second quarter. Workscopes continue to be favorable for LEAP and widebody programs and remain stable for CFM56.

    即使營收強勁成長,在訂單需求旺盛的情況下,備品逾期(delinquency;指因材料供應限制而延遲出貨的項目)於第二季較前一季增加20%。LEAP與寬體機計畫的維修範圍(workscopes)持續有利,而CFM56則維持穩定。

  • Equipment revenue grew 30%, with engine deliveries up 26%, including LEAP up 24%. Widebody deliveries were up 30%, with the GEnx up significantly more. Profit was $2.7 billion, up 20% from higher services volume and price.

    設備營收成長30%,引擎交付量成長26%,其中LEAP成長24%。寬體機交付量成長30%,其中GEnx的增幅更為顯著。獲利為27億美元,成長20%,主要由服務量與價格提升帶動。

  • As expected, margins were down 160 basis points to 27.3% from install engine growth, including GE9X, investments, and inflation. Year to date, CES has delivered a very strong first half, with orders growth of over 50%, revenue growth of 30%, including services up 32%, and operating profit of $5 billion, up approximately $900 million year over year.

    如預期,受已安裝引擎規模成長(包含GE9X)、投資與通膨影響,利潤率下降160個基點至27.3%。年初至今,CES上半年表現非常強勁:訂單成長超過50%,營收成長30%(其中服務成長32%),營業利益達50億美元,年對年增加約9億美元。

  • In DPT, orders increased 12%. Defense book-to-bill was 1 in the quarter and 1.7 in the first half. Total DPT backlog was over $30 billion, up roughly $5 billion since the start of the year. Revenue grew 16%. Defense & Systems revenue was up 12%, driven by growth in both services and equipment, with engine deliveries up 7%. Propulsion & Additive Technologies grew 23%, with growth led by Avio Aero.

    在DPT方面,訂單成長12%。國防業務本季接單出貨比(book-to-bill)為1,上半年為1.7。DPT總積壓訂單(backlog)超過300億美元,較年初增加約50億美元。營收成長16%。國防與系統(Defense & Systems)營收成長12%,由服務與設備雙雙成長帶動,引擎交付量成長7%。推進與增材技術(Propulsion & Additive Technologies)成長23%,成長主要由Avio Aero帶動。

  • Profit grew 18%, and margins were up 30 basis points to 13.8% from increased volume and price, partially offset by mix, investments, and inflation. In the first half, DPT delivered solid results, with orders growth of 40%, revenue growth of 17%, and operating profit of around $900 million, up 17%.

    獲利成長18%,利潤率提升30個基點至13.8%,主要受惠於量增與價格提升,但部分被產品組合、投資與通膨抵銷。上半年DPT交出穩健成果:訂單成長40%,營收成長17%,營業利益約9億美元,成長17%。

  • Moving to guidance on slide 10. Our first half exceeded expectations, and we expect strength to continue into the second half. As a result, we are raising our full-year guidance across the board.

    接著說明第10頁投影片的指引。我們上半年表現超出預期,且我們預期這股強勁態勢將延續至下半年。因此,我們全面上調全年指引。

  • We are expecting overall revenue to grow high-teens, up from prior outlook of low-double digits. We expect CES growth of around 20%, up from prior outlook of mid-teens. We now expect commercial services to grow low-20s, up from mid-teens.

    我們預期整體營收將以高十幾%的幅度成長,高於先前低雙位數的展望。我們預期CES成長約20%,高於先前中十幾%的展望。我們現在預期商業服務將以低20%區間成長,高於先前中十幾%。

  • Commercial services backlog stands at roughly $170 billion, up nearly $30 billion since the end of 2024. Given the sustained demand environment and existing delinquency, we are entering third quarter with more than 95% of spare parts revenue in backlog, similar to second quarter.

    商業服務在手訂單約為1,700億美元,較2024年底增加近300億美元。鑑於需求環境持續強勁以及既有的逾期情況,我們在進入第三季時,備件營收有超過95%已在在手訂單中,與第二季相近。

  • Engines already off-wing and the pipeline of planned removals in the third quarter exceed our full-year shop visit guide by over 40%. This provides us with ample visibility into demand to fulfill our outlook for 2026.

    已下翼的引擎數量以及第三季計畫拆換的管線,較我們全年進廠維修(shop visit)指引高出逾40%。這讓我們對需求具備充足能見度,以支撐並達成我們對2026年的展望。

  • We now expect commercial equipment to grow around 20%, up from mid to high-teens, with LEAP deliveries up high-teens from 15% previously. And we expect DPT growth of low-double digits, up from mid to high-single digits.

    我們現在預期商用設備成長約20%,高於先前中到高十幾%;其中LEAP交付量將以高十幾%成長,高於先前的15%。我們也預期DPT成長為低雙位數,高於先前中到高個位數。

  • Operating profit is now projected to be in a range of $10.55 billion to $10.75 billion, with improvement in both segments. CES operating profit is now expected to be in a range of $10.25 billion to $10.35 billion, up $400 million versus the high end of the prior guide. This reflects a drop-through of around $1 billion of improvement in commercial services revenue, partially offset by higher equipment growth.

    營業利益目前預估將落在105.5億至107.5億美元區間,兩個事業部皆有改善。CES營業利益目前預期為102.5億至103.5億美元,較先前指引上緣提高4億美元。這反映商業服務營收改善約10億美元的利潤落差(drop-through),但部分被更高的設備成長所抵銷。

  • We expect DPT profit to be in the range of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion, up $50 million at the midpoint versus the prior guide, reflecting drop-through from higher revenue. Expectations for corporate costs and eliminations remain unchanged at $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion.

    我們預期DPT利益將落在16億至17億美元區間,較先前指引的中點提高5,000萬美元,反映更高營收帶來的利潤落差(drop-through)。公司層級成本與沖銷(eliminations)的預期維持不變,為12億至13億美元。

  • Taken together, we are raising our EPS guidance to a range of $7.65 to $7.85, up $0.35 at the midpoint from the high end of the prior guide. This reflects higher profit combined with the lower tax rate, which we now expect to be below 16.5% for the year.

    綜合而言,我們將每股盈餘(EPS)指引上調至7.65至7.85美元區間,較先前指引上緣的中點提高0.35美元。這反映更高的獲利加上較低的稅率;我們目前預期全年稅率將低於16.5%。

  • We are also raising our free cash flow guidance to $8.9 billion to $9.2 billion, up. $650 million from the high end of the prior guide, reflecting higher earnings and better working capital performance.

    我們也將自由現金流指引上調至89億至92億美元,較先前指引上緣提高6.5億美元,反映更高的獲利以及更佳的營運資金表現。

  • Overall, 2026 is shaping up to be another strong year with high-teens revenue growth and around $1.5 billion of profit and free cash flow growth, building on the momentum the business has had in the last few years.

    整體而言,2026年正逐步成形為另一個強勁年度,營收將以高十幾%成長,且獲利與自由現金流合計約成長15億美元,延續公司過去幾年的動能。

  • With that, Larry, back to you.

    接下來,Larry,交還給你。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Rahul, thanks.

    Rahul,謝謝。

  • We're proud of the progress we've made in the first half. It reflects the strength of our leadership positions across commercial and defense and the continued focus of the GE Aerospace team to deliver for our customers.

    我們為上半年的進展感到自豪。這反映我們在商用與國防領域的領導地位之強勁,以及GE Aerospace團隊持續專注為客戶交付成果。

  • Our performance is underpinned by our sustained competitive advantages. With the industry's largest fleet, 80,000 engines and growing, and more than 2.3 billion flight hours, we operate across decades-long life cycles. That unmatched scale keeps us close to our customers, making us the partner of choice.

    我們的表現建立在持續的競爭優勢之上。憑藉業界最大的機隊規模——8萬具引擎且持續成長——以及超過23億飛行小時,我們在長達數十年的生命週期中營運。這種無可匹敵的規模讓我們更貼近客戶,使我們成為首選合作夥伴。

  • Our field experience, which enables continuous improvement in time on wing and cost of ownership, outcomes our customers value most. We offer the best-performing products under wing across narrowbody, widebody, regional and defense, supported by deep technology expertise and a growing services network.

    我們的現場經驗使我們能持續改善在翼時間(time on wing)與持有成本(cost of ownership),而這正是客戶最重視的成果。我們在窄體、廣體、區域與國防領域提供翼下(under wing)表現最佳的產品,並由深厚的技術專長與持續擴大的服務網路所支援。

  • With roughly $3 billion in annual R&D spend and CapEx investments of over $1 billion, our world-class engineering and manufacturing teams are advancing next-gen technologies to improve durability, efficiency, and turnaround times, while building additional capabilities for our defense customers through developing innovative technologies and partnering with disruptors to move at pace.

    每年約30億美元的研發支出,以及超過10億美元的資本支出(CapEx)投資,使我們世界級的工程與製造團隊得以推進下一代技術,以提升耐久性、效率與周轉時間;同時也透過開發創新技術並與顛覆者合作加速推進,為國防客戶建立更多能力。

  • Through FLIGHT DECK, we're turning strategy into results with a focus on safety, quality, delivery, and cost -- always in that order. Overall, we're confident in our path ahead as the GE Aerospace team is poised to deliver exceptional value to our customers and our shareholders.

    透過FLIGHT DECK,我們把策略轉化為成果,聚焦於安全、品質、交付與成本——永遠依此順序。整體而言,我們對前進路徑充滿信心;GE Aerospace團隊已蓄勢待發,將為客戶與股東創造卓越價值。

  • With that, Blaire, let's go to questions.

    接下來,Blaire,我們進入提問。

  • Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

    Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

  • Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible.

    在開放電話線之前,我想請排隊的各位考量其他分析師,每人請提一個問題,讓我們能盡可能讓更多人發問。

  • Liz, can you please open the line?

    Liz,麻煩你開放電話線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

    (接線員指示) Sheila Kahyaoglu,Jefferies。

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • Good morning, Larry, Rahul, and Blaire. Maybe if you could just update us on what you're assuming from a macro standpoint at this point, what degree of uncertainty is maintained in the guidance? Because it seems like the service orders have been very good, up 22% in Q2, 34% for the first half, and that would support higher than the implied 12% services growth in the second half. Thank you.

    早安,Larry、Rahul和Blaire。也許你們可以更新一下目前在總體環境(macro)方面的假設,以及指引中保留了多大程度的不確定性?因為看起來服務訂單表現非常好,第二季成長22%,上半年成長34%,這應該能支撐下半年高於隱含12%的服務成長。謝謝。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sheila, good morning. There's no question that the environment remains dynamic. And as we look at where we are, as we said in our prepared remarks, I think we feel very good about our position here, largely on the back of customer behavior, which hasn't changed.

    Sheila,早安。毫無疑問,環境仍然是動態變化的。而就我們目前所處的位置來看,正如我們在事先準備的發言中所說,我想我們對自身的處境感到非常良好,主要是因為客戶行為並未改變。

  • We've seen service orders continue to be robust. Parked aircraft, particularly the CFM56, has actually declined since the beginning of March. I think Rahul has highlighted the fact that we've got our MRO footprint really oversubscribed at this point in a significant way. As much as we're pleased with the delivery increases, our spare parts delinquencies are up, unfortunately.

    我們看到服務訂單持續強勁。停放的飛機,特別是CFM56,實際上自3月初以來已經下降。我想Rahul已強調,我們的MRO版圖目前在很大程度上已出現明顯超額認購。儘管我們對交付量提升感到高興,但不幸的是,我們的備件逾期情況正在上升。

  • So I think on the back of that, and I don't suspect we'll hear much different in Farnborough, we do expect to return to more modest departure growth in the second half. We saw relatively flattish performance, a little bit of the uncertainty that kept us holding the guide 90 days ago.

    因此基於這些因素,而且我不認為我們在范堡羅航展(Farnborough)會聽到太多不同的說法,我們確實預期下半年將回到較為溫和的起降(departure)成長。我們看到表現相對持平,並帶有一些不確定性,這也是我們在90天前維持指引不變的原因。

  • But we think that will begin to return to a more normal environment through the back half, going into '27, clearly at a more robust level. So I think all in all, as we sit here mid-year, demand could evolve from here, but it's been far more resilient than maybe many of us would have expected.

    但我們認為,隨著下半年推進,環境將開始回歸更正常的狀態;進入2027年時,顯然會是在更強勁的水準。所以整體而言,在年中這個時間點,需求未來仍可能演變,但其韌性遠高於我們許多人可能原先的預期。

  • I think the tone at IATA very much was let's all remember that as we saw in the pandemic. Demand will return to more normal conditions, probably sooner than we would have otherwise anticipated and potentially at a more pitch level. Therefore, let's continue to be prepared for that.

    我認為在IATA的基調很明確:讓我們都記得,就像我們在疫情期間看到的那樣。需求將回到更正常的狀況,可能比我們原本預期更快,且可能在更高的水準。因此,讓我們持續為此做好準備。

  • And that's really, I think, what we're seeing in our conversations with our customers. That's what we're preparing for, not only with respect to the back half of 2026, but as we get ready for 2027.

    而我認為,這正是我們在與客戶的對話中所看到的情況。這也是我們正在做的準備,不僅是針對2026年下半年,也是在為2027年做準備。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And Sheila, to your second question on the first half to second half, as you said, that very strong first half for services, both on orders and revenue, and we raised our full-year guide to the low-20 percentage growth, and now we're expecting services to be up $5 billion year over year. This is up about $1 billion from where we were just back in April, which is what led to us improving the CES profit outlook by $400 million from the higher end of the prior guide.

    Sheila,關於你第二個問題、也就是上半年到下半年的部分,如你所說,服務業務在上半年無論是訂單還是營收都非常強勁,因此我們把全年指引上調至約低20%區間的成長率,現在預期服務業務年增將達50億美元。這比我們在4月時的預期大約多了10億美元,也因此我們把CES利潤展望在先前指引高端的基礎上再改善了4億美元。

  • So we've been sliding for linearity for the last several years, and we are making progress in that regard. But even with that, there is sequential growth from first half to second half of 2026. And on a year-over-year basis, the second-half services revenue in our current guide is up low-double digit from a very strong second half last year. Keep in mind, second half last year was up $3 billion from first half.

    所以過去幾年我們一直在推動營運的線性化(linearity),而在這方面我們正在取得進展。但即便如此,2026年下半年相較上半年仍會呈現序列性成長。而以年對年來看,我們目前指引中的下半年服務營收,將在去年非常強勁的下半年基礎上,仍有低雙位數成長。請記住,去年下半年比上半年增加了30億美元。

  • So the compares are getting much tougher. But as Larry said, we feel very comfortable with where we are with the current guide. And as I said in my prepared remarks, 95% of our spare parts are in the backlog for third quarter. We have 40% oversubscribed on shop visits. And our CFM56 shop visits -- also, as we think about the number of shop visits we're expecting, we had at the higher end of the 2,300 to 2,400 shop visits.

    所以比較基期正變得更具挑戰。但如Larry所說,我們對目前的指引水準感到非常有信心。而且如我在事先準備的發言中提到,我們第三季的備用零件有95%已在積壓訂單(backlog)中。我們的進廠維修(shop visits)目前超額認購40%。至於CFM56的進廠維修——同時,當我們思考預期的進廠維修數量時,我們是落在2,300到2,400次進廠維修區間的高端。

  • So all in all, we feel very good. And it's great that we're driving double-digit growth for services in the second half, and that momentum should carry us into 2027, as Larry said a minute ago.

    總體而言,我們感覺非常好。而且很棒的是,我們在下半年正推動服務業務達成雙位數成長,這股動能也應該會延續到2027年,正如Larry剛才所說。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Myles Walton, Wolfe.

    Wolfe的Myles Walton。

  • Myles Walton - Analyst

    Myles Walton - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning. Maybe one on cash flow, if I could. Obviously, you're outperforming that pretty handily this year, $9 billion on $10.5 billion of operating profit, which is obviously much higher than the free cash flow you have out there for 2028 on an even higher operating profit number.

    謝謝。早安。如果可以的話,我想問一個關於現金流的問題。顯然,你們今年的表現相當亮眼:在105億美元的營業利益下,現金流達到90億美元;而這明顯高於你們對2028年的自由現金流(free cash flow)展望——即便2028年的營業利益數字還更高。

  • So the question really is, this free cash flow conversion performance, should we expect free cash flow to continue to grow as earnings grow from here? Or are we going to be confronted by cash conversion, we're normalizing, and we should expect free cash flow to maybe stay at this level over the next couple of years?

    所以問題其實是:這樣的自由現金流轉換(conversion)表現,我們是否應該預期,從現在起隨著獲利成長,自由現金流也會持續成長?還是我們會面臨現金轉換率回歸常態(normalizing),因此未來幾年自由現金流可能大致維持在這個水準?

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Myles, thank you for the question. You're right. I mean, we're really pleased with how we performed in the second quarter. Cash flow, $3 billion, up 43% year over year.

    Myles,謝謝你的提問。你說得對。我們對第二季的表現非常滿意。現金流30億美元,年增43%。

  • And the best part for all of us was that we were able to reduce our working capital in the quarter even with 24% earnings growth. That does not happen easily, so a lot of hard work by several people to make that happen, great performance on receivables, really good performance on inventory as well, a little bit of help from tariffs. Because we got $100 million of refund from tariffs in the quarter, but in the grand scheme of things, that's not extremely material.

    而對我們所有人來說,最棒的一點是:即便獲利成長24%,我們仍能在本季降低營運資金(working capital)。這並不容易發生,因此有許多人付出了大量努力才做到——應收帳款表現很出色,存貨表現也非常好,另外關稅也提供了一點幫助。因為本季我們收到1億美元的關稅退稅(refund),但就整體而言,這並不是非常重大的因素。

  • So when we raise the guide for the year, with over 100% conversion in the back half as well now, and if you think about a guide or call it $650 million from where we were at the high end of the prior guide, I would say about half [and half] from earnings growth and working capital performance, so we're carrying that working capital performance into our full-year guide as well. So we are performing better, and as you said, the $9 billion plus for this year is more than what we expected for 2028 just a year ago back in July of 2025.

    因此,當我們上調全年指引時,現在也預期下半年同樣能達到超過100%的轉換率;如果你把指引的上調幅度——或稱相較先前指引高端增加了6.5億美元——來看,我會說大約一半來自獲利成長,另一半來自營運資金表現,所以我們也把這樣的營運資金表現納入全年指引之中。所以我們確實表現得更好;而如你所說,今年90億美元以上的水準,已經高於我們在一年前、也就是2025年7月時對2028年的預期。

  • So really good performance. I think we feel good about our working capital performance. And there's nothing -- no huge one-time items in nature, so we do expect cash flow to grow here with earnings, but the conversion should normalize. I think we've been saying that as we -- over the last 12, 18 months. Conversion should normalize, but even with that, we expect significant cash growth as our earnings grow.

    所以這是非常好的表現。我認為我們對營運資金表現感到樂觀。而且沒有任何——沒有什麼性質上屬於重大一次性(one-time)項目,因此我們確實預期現金流會隨著獲利成長而成長,但轉換率應該會回歸常態。我想我們在過去12到18個月一直在這麼說。轉換率會正常化,但即便如此,隨著獲利成長,我們仍預期現金將顯著增加。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

    JPMorgan的Seth Seifman。

  • Seth Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Seifman - Analyst

  • Thanks very much, and good morning. I wanted to ask, as we think about where things go from here, you talked about the visibility that you have into the remainder of '26. But maybe as we think about beyond sort of -- any indication that the strength this year is a pull forward of anything or any indication that the resilience that you're seeing in demand maybe gives you a little bit more confidence in the growth potential next year?

    非常感謝,早安。我想問的是,當我們思考接下來的走向時,你們談到對2026年剩餘期間的可視性(visibility)。但如果我們再往後看——是否有任何跡象顯示,今年的強勁表現是把某些需求提前(pull forward)了?或者你們看到的需求韌性,是否讓你們對明年的成長潛力更有信心?

  • And then lastly, on the supply side, you talked about record shop visits this quarter being all booked up. To what degree is the supply side a governor on services growth as we look forward?

    最後,在供給端方面,你們提到本季創紀錄的進廠維修已經全部排滿。往前看,供給端在多大程度上會成為服務成長的限制因素(governor)?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, Seth, I think if I take those in reverse order, I think we've made a tremendous amount of progress on the supply chain side. There's no way you have a print like this otherwise thrilled to see not only nine consecutive quarters with double-digit increases from our critical suppliers, but maybe more importantly, the underlying work, the deep technical collaboration and joint problem-solving that we see underway.

    Seth,如果我倒過來回答,我認為我們在供應鏈方面已取得非常大的進展。否則不可能出現這樣的成績;我們很高興看到,不僅關鍵供應商已連續九個季度呈現雙位數增長,更重要的是背後的工作——深度的技術協作與共同解題(joint problem-solving)正在進行中。

  • I mentioned GKN. We could have mentioned a number of folks that are really working with us in ways that are materially better than a few years back. Hopefully, we're a better partner and we're a better customer. And that is just unlocking unleashing capacity. It's busting bottlenecks that otherwise would constrain us.

    我提到了GKN。其實還可以提到許多夥伴,他們與我們合作的方式,相較幾年前已實質改善。希望我們也成為更好的合作夥伴、也成為更好的客戶。而這正是在釋放、解鎖產能。它正在打通那些原本會限制我們的瓶頸。

  • I won't recite some of the demand numbers that we've shared. But as we think about the back half, as we think about '27, and frankly beyond, it's much more a supply-side challenge than it is demand. Not that we would ever take the demand environment for granted, but we know, despite this morning's news, we need to have a bigger, better second half. That's where our team is focused. There are no victory laps here in Evendale today. And as we get ready for next year, that is very much the mindset.

    我就不再重複我們已分享過的一些需求數據。但當我們思考下半年、思考2027年,坦白說甚至更長遠,這更像是一個供給端的挑戰,而不是需求端的問題。並不是說我們會把需求環境視為理所當然,但我們知道,儘管今天早上的消息如此,我們仍需要一個更大、更好的下半年。這就是我們團隊的重點所在。今天在Evendale,我們不會有任何慶功式的鬆懈。而當我們為明年做準備時,這正是我們的心態。

  • I think if we just focus on services for a moment, we know longer term that in addition to that backlog that we've talked about, $170 billion commercially, the installed base should continue to grow gradually every year at a low to mid-single-digit rate. That's definitely the way we see things through the rest of this decade.

    我認為如果我們先把焦點放在服務業務上,我們知道從長期來看,除了我們談到的積壓訂單(商用約1,700億美元)之外,已安裝基礎應會在本十年剩餘期間,以每年低至中個位數的速度逐步成長。這絕對是我們對本十年其餘時間的看法。

  • We know we're going to have favorable effects from both workscope and price. I think Rahul mentioned that earlier. And to the extent that we can continue to make the progress with FLIGHT DECK, we think we're going to reduce that overdue, that delinquent backlog, which is a nice kicker over the next several years, not only from a revenue perspective, but to Myles' earlier question, it should help us from a working capital and cash flow perspective.

    我們知道工作範圍(workscope)與價格兩方面都會帶來有利影響。我想Rahul先前也提到過。而且只要我們能持續推進FLIGHT DECK,我們認為就能降低那些逾期、拖延的積壓訂單,這在未來幾年會是很好的加分項,不僅從營收角度來看,回到Myles先前的問題,也應能在營運資金與現金流角度幫助我們。

  • So we know with LEAP becoming a larger part of the installed base eclipsing the CFM56, we know we'll get the GEnx doubling between now or really between '24 and '30, that that installed base with our growth platforms is definitely going to grow. Workscope, we believe, is a structural tailwind, largely as a function of the natural aging of the installed base. And we'll get a little bit of a price here and there as we move forward.

    因此,隨著LEAP在已安裝基礎中的占比提高並超越CFM56,我們也知道GEnx在現在到『24到『30之間將會翻倍,這些成長平台的已安裝基礎肯定會擴大。我們相信工作範圍是一個結構性順風,主要來自已安裝基礎自然老化的影響。而且隨著我們往前推進,也會在某些地方獲得一些價格上的提升。

  • So I think we said earlier, this spring, this summer, no reason '27 should diverge from that double-digit commercial services growth medium-term outlook, even as we go into next year, what will clearly be a higher trimming off point than we imagined. Again, the environment is dynamic; we're mindful of that. But with our backlog, with that framework, that algorithm in place, and just the overall tone we're hearing from customers, I think we feel very good about where we are at this point.

    所以我想我們先前說過,今年春季、夏季,沒有理由認為『27年會偏離我們對中期商用服務雙位數成長的展望;即便進入明年,修剪(trimming)起點顯然會比我們想像的更高。再次強調,環境是動態的;我們也留意到這點。但憑藉我們的積壓訂單、既定的框架與運作機制(algorithm),以及我們從客戶那裡聽到的整體氛圍,我認為我們對目前所處位置感到非常有信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Godyn, Citi.

    Citi的John Godyn。

  • John Godyn - Analyst

    John Godyn - Analyst

  • Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Larry, last quarter, you held back raising guidance despite a strong 1Q because of the concerns in the environment. And I recall you mentioning a number of possible tail risks that were on your mind, completely understandable in the moment. But now, with the benefit of hindsight, not only did GE survive, but obviously thrived, and ultimately, we've got this large guidance provision today.

    嗨,各位。謝謝讓我提問。Larry,上季儘管第一季表現強勁,你仍因環境疑慮而沒有上調財測。我也記得你提到一些你當時在意的潛在尾端風險(tail risks),在當下完全可以理解。但現在回頭看,不僅GE挺過來了,而且顯然表現得很好,最終我們今天也看到這個大幅的財測上修。

  • I was hoping you could just spend a moment maybe reflecting on your own learnings from the experience, elaborating a bit on what you're hearing from customers. Are we just structurally underappreciating the resilience of the business and its ability to compound value through complex macro backdrops?

    我想請你花點時間回顧一下你從這次經驗中學到的東西,也多談談你從客戶那裡聽到的情況。我們是否在結構性地低估了這門業務的韌性,以及它在複雜的總體環境下持續複利創造價值的能力?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, John, I would never suggest anyone underappreciates what we do in the value of the franchise. I'll leave that to others to make that assessment.

    John,我絕不會說有人低估我們所做的事或這個特許經營(franchise)的價值。我把這種評估留給其他人來做。

  • There's no doubt, I think, in our minds that we would play April all over again in the same way that we did. We did not know at that time when the conflict was still fresh what our customers would do. Perhaps we know more definitively that that lesson from the pandemic that we've touched on a few times over the last several months, which was certainly in the air at Rio, at IATA, that we need to make sure we are prepared for the other side of the uncertainty, has really played out. And again, lots of different data points here that speak to the resiliency of demand, particularly in the aftermarket.

    毫無疑問,我想在我們看來,如果再來一次,我們仍會用同樣方式處理四月的情況。當時衝突仍然剛發生,我們並不知道客戶會怎麼做。或許我們現在更能確定:我們在過去幾個月多次提到的、從疫情得到的教訓——在里約、在IATA會議上也都能感受到——就是我們必須確保自己為不確定性之後的局面做好準備,這點確實已經應驗。而且,這裡有很多不同的數據點都在說明需求的韌性,尤其是在售後市場(aftermarket)。

  • There's just no way, I think, in the moment, given the uncertainty, just given the headlines, that we would have been well served with investors to get out with an early bump in the guide. But here we sit mid-year, we know how the market has responded to the uncertainty, to the dynamic conditions that are clearly out there.

    我認為在當下,考量不確定性、也考量新聞標題所帶來的影響,我們若過早上調財測,對投資人而言並不會是好的做法。但現在來到年中,我們已經看到市場如何回應不確定性,以及那些顯然存在的動態條件。

  • All the while, we continue to do what we do from an execution perspective, not taking anything for granted, but also knowing that with the backlog, with demand remaining robust, that we needed to continue to invest, we need to continue to procure, we need to continue with our FLIGHT DECK work. So I think we'd play it the same way all over again and are thrilled to see the resiliency and demand and expect that that gives us -- helps give us a little bit of a lens on how the second half is likely to evolve.

    同時,我們仍持續在執行面做好我們該做的事,不把任何事情視為理所當然;但也知道在積壓訂單在手、需求依然強勁的情況下,我們必須持續投資、持續採購,並持續推進我們的FLIGHT DECK工作。所以我想我們會再做一次同樣的決策,也很高興看到需求的韌性,並預期這能——幫助我們對下半年可能的演變提供一些視角。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Strauss, Wells Fargo.

    Wells Fargo的David Strauss。

  • David Strauss - Equity Analyst

    David Strauss - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning.

    謝謝。早安。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Good morning, David.

    早安,David。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安。

  • David Strauss - Equity Analyst

    David Strauss - Equity Analyst

  • I wanted to see if you could just touch on your expectations for the LEAP shop visit profile from here. I think over 50% growth first half of the year, I think you talked about it compounding kind of at 25% from here. So if you could just revisit that.

    我想請你談談你們對LEAP進廠維修(shop visit)走勢的預期。我想今年上半年成長超過50%,你們也提到從現在起大概以25%左右的速度複利成長。所以如果可以的話,請你再回顧一下這個看法。

  • And if you could also just touch on these durability upgrades, the durability kits, how that's kind of factoring into all of this, how long it's going to take you to get through kind of upgrading the existing fleet, and how does that influence numbers. Are you effectively pulling forward work today that you might have seen out in the future with these durability upgrades? Thanks very much.

    另外也請談談這些耐久性升級(durability upgrades)、耐久性套件(durability kits)如何納入整體考量:要花多久才能把現有機隊大致升級完成?這會如何影響數字?你們是否等於把原本可能在未來才會看到的工作,因為這些耐久性升級而提前到今天來做?非常感謝。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • So David, let me start and then I'll hand it to Larry to talk a little bit about the benefits that we are seeing from the durability upgrade.

    David,我先回答,然後再交給Larry談談我們從耐久性升級中看到的一些效益。

  • So I think on shop visits, as you said, we are expecting the shop visits to probably grow at kind of a 25 percentage CAGR from now to 2030. That's all a function of the installed base that's largely out there and will continue to grow over the next couple of years. But most of the engines that we are shipping now are probably not going to come in for a shop visit between now and 2030, so it's largely a function of the installed base that exists in the globe today.

    關於進廠維修,如你所說,我們預期從現在到2030年,進廠維修量大概會以約25%的年複合成長率(CAGR)成長。這主要取決於目前在外運行的已安裝基礎,且未來幾年仍會持續增加。但我們現在出貨的大多數引擎,可能在現在到2030年之間都不會進廠維修,因此這主要是由當今全球既有的已安裝基礎所驅動。

  • So with that, the big change that we are going to see is that our external channel is going to continue to grow. Our external channel has gone from like sub-10% of our overall LEAP services portfolio to mid-teens right now, and we expect that to grow to 30% by the time we get to 2030. So I think that's the transition you're going to see here.

    在此背景下,我們將看到的一個重大變化是:我們的外部通路(external channel)會持續成長。我們的外部通路占整體LEAP服務組合的比重,已從不到10%提升到目前的十幾%,我們預期到2030年將成長到30%。所以我想你會看到的就是這樣的轉變。

  • And we are seeing the benefit of that. As I said in my prepared remarks, we saw spare parts growth from that channel contributing to our second-quarter revenue growth as well, so that will continue to build. And all we are doing on our side is continuing to invest to build more capacity, and then we are adding more channel partners.

    而我們也正在看到這帶來的效益。如我在事先準備的發言中所說,我們看到來自該通路的備品(spare parts)成長也對第二季營收成長有所貢獻,因此這將持續累積。而我們這邊所做的,就是持續投資以建立更多產能,並且增加更多通路合作夥伴。

  • And the other part is that, on the cost side, we do expect continuous production in our shop visit costs from two main things: one, the fact is that we will be leveraging our fixed cost investments more as volume continues to grow; and then, the second part is that we are working really hard on repairs. Our repair CAGR from this year is more than 20%. So we're investing in repairs to bring that shop visit cost down because, as you know, repairs help both with the turnaround time and the cost.

    另一部分是在成本端,我們確實預期我們的進廠維修(shop visit)成本會持續下降,主要來自兩個因素:第一,隨著產量持續成長,我們將更充分地運用既有的固定成本投資;第二,我們正在非常努力地推動維修(repairs)。我們從今年起的維修複合年成長率(CAGR)超過20%。因此我們正在投資維修以降低每次進廠維修成本,因為如你所知,維修同時有助於縮短周轉時間並降低成本。

  • And then obviously, the growth of external channel helps a little bit with mix. So that's kind of the trajectory that we're seeing now in 2030.

    然後很明顯地,外部通路的成長也在組合(mix)上帶來一些幫助。所以這大致就是我們目前看到到2030年的走勢。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • David, I would just maybe step back on the durability kit for a moment. Whether it be at IATA a few weeks ago, whether it's a recent customer survey that we've done, I think we're encouraged with some of the feedback we're getting.

    David,我想先退一步談一下耐久性套件(durability kit)。不論是在幾週前的IATA,或是我們最近做的一份客戶調查,我認為我們對目前收到的一些回饋感到鼓舞。

  • Internally, we've said one of our priorities for the year is to be more customer-driven, to really see ourselves as our customers do. That sounds obvious, but it's really helped us, I think, see some areas of opportunity, certainly improving durability and time on wing, front and center.

    在內部,我們說今年的優先事項之一是更以客戶為導向,真正用客戶的角度看待我們自己。這聽起來很理所當然,但我認為它確實幫助我們看見一些機會領域,尤其是提升耐久性與在翼時間(time on wing),成為最核心的重點。

  • I think from a LEAP-1A perspective, we now have over 40% of the fleet equipped with the durability kit. And the performance has been quite good. We've talked about this being the unlock for a doubling of the time on wing, putting us in line with the CFM56, really encouraged in that regard.

    以LEAP-1A的角度來看,我們現在已有超過40%的機隊裝配了耐久性套件。而其表現相當不錯。我們談過,這將是把在翼時間加倍的關鍵解鎖因素,使我們能與CFM56看齊;在這方面我們非常受到鼓舞。

  • Now, we have certification for the LEAP-1B durability kit. So that will give us the opportunity through the back half of this year to really work through the industrialization plan and give us a full cutover, both with respect to the aftermarket and new make, really in 2027.

    目前我們已取得LEAP-1B耐久性套件的認證。因此在今年下半年,這將讓我們有機會真正推進工業化(industrialization)計畫,並在售後市場與新製(new make)兩方面,於2027年實現全面切換(full cutover)。

  • It really won't be something that will trigger an acceleration of work. I think we've talked in the past that the fleet retrofits really will be a multi-year effort. Those engines are due to come in for their first shop visit on a relatively predictable schedule. I don't think you're going to see many engines come in early for the durability kit.

    這其實不會成為觸發工作加速的因素。我想我們過去談過,機隊改裝(retrofits)確實會是一項多年期的工作。這些引擎會依相對可預測的時程進入第一次進廠維修。我不認為你會看到很多引擎為了耐久性套件而提早進廠。

  • So really be in the early 2030s until we can look at both the LEAP-1A and LEAP-1B fleets as being fully retrofit. But again, the certification is a big step. We'll work for the industrialization encouraged by the 1A field performance and, over the next several years will, I think, be in a much better place in this regard.

    因此要到2030年代初期,我們才可能把LEAP-1A與LEAP-1B兩個機隊都視為已完成全面改裝。但再次強調,取得認證是一大步。我們會在1A的現場表現(field performance)所帶來的鼓舞下推進工業化;而在接下來幾年,我認為我們在這方面會處於更好的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ronald Epstein, Bank of America.

    Ronald Epstein,美國銀行(Bank of America)。

  • Ronald Epstein - Analyst

    Ronald Epstein - Analyst

  • Yeah, hey. Good morning. I was wondering if -- you both mentioned workscope in your comments about the future growth in the business. Larry, could you give us more of a feel of what you're seeing there and what you expect to see in workscope? And then I've got a follow-up.

    是的,嗨。早安。我想請教一下——你們兩位在談到未來業務成長時都提到了工作範圍(workscope)。Larry,你能否讓我們更了解你在那裡看到的情況,以及你對workscope的預期?然後我還有一個追問。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Well, again, in many respects, be it on the widebody side, be it on the narrowbody side, it really is a function of the natural aging of the installed base. If you think about the growth platforms, Ron, whether it be LEAP, whether it be the nx, we're really moving from that quick turn, that early check-up, check-in to the first performance restoration shop visit.

    當然。嗯,再次強調,無論是廣體機端或窄體機端,這在很大程度上都是已安裝基礎(installed base)自然老化的結果。Ron,如果你想想這些成長平台,不論是LEAP或是nx,我們其實正從快速周轉、早期檢查/回廠(check-up, check-in),轉向第一次性能恢復(performance restoration)的進廠維修。

  • Even with some of the older platforms, you look at the GE90, for example, 70% of that installed base has yet to see shop visit two, which has a significant step-up in workscope. So we have, I think, real direct visibility. We obviously need to plan our own capacity requirements. The airlines need to work through the removals and any third-party work that may be required. I think that is really why we talk about this.

    即便是一些較舊的平台,例如你看GE90,有70%的已安裝基礎尚未進行第二次進廠維修,而第二次的workscope會有顯著的提升。所以我認為我們有非常直接的可視性。我們當然需要規劃自身的產能需求。航空公司需要處理拆發(removals)以及可能需要的任何第三方作業。我想這正是我們為什麼會談這件事。

  • Now, when you look at the CFM56, even obviously the legacy narrowbody platform, it's still a relatively young fleet, and we'd argue with a lot of life left in it. There are fewer long-term service agreements on those engines than we would see in the widebody segment, but 30% of that fleet hasn't seen the first shop visit. Two-thirds haven't even seen the second shop visit.

    再看CFM56,即便它顯然是傳統的窄體機平台,它仍是一個相對年輕的機隊,我們認為仍有很長的使用壽命。這些引擎的長期服務協議(long-term service agreements)數量少於我們在廣體機市場看到的,但其中30%的機隊尚未進行第一次進廠維修。甚至有三分之二還沒進行第二次進廠維修。

  • So we think about CFM56 as the older platform it is. But as we work through the next several years, I think we'll see those engines come back. And again, that structural support, that tailwind will be helpful.

    所以我們把CFM56視為較舊的平台。但在接下來幾年逐步推進的過程中,我認為我們會看到這些引擎回流。而且再次強調,那種結構性的支撐、那股順風(tailwind)會帶來幫助。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And Ron, just maybe one additional comment on CFM56. On CFM56, as we said in our prepared remarks, the workscopes continue to be stable. And the growth largely is coming from better volume, better price, and higher material availability.

    Ron,另外再補充一點關於CFM56。就CFM56而言,正如我們在事先準備的發言中所說,workscope持續保持穩定。而成長主要來自更好的量(volume)、更好的價格(price),以及更高的材料可得性(material availability)。

  • So the dollar per shop visit is getting better because it's not driven by increase in workscopes, but the fact is that we are able to fulfill some of those heavier workscopes that we could not finish earlier. So the material availability is what's driving the growth in CFM56 in a big way.

    因此每次進廠維修的美元金額在改善,並不是因為workscope增加所驅動,而是因為我們能夠完成一些先前無法結案的較重workscope。所以材料可得性正以很大的程度推動CFM56的成長。

  • But overall, the CFM56 workscope should remain stable from now until '28, '29 because there's hardly any used materials in the market, retirements are low, and a lot of the engines that are coming in now need life limited part upgrades as well. So that's what we see on CFM56.

    但整體而言,CFM56的workscope從現在到2028、2029年應該都會維持穩定,因為市場上幾乎沒有二手材料,退役(retirements)偏低,而且目前進廠的許多引擎也需要壽命限制零件(life limited parts)升級。這就是我們對CFM56的看法。

  • Ronald Epstein - Analyst

    Ronald Epstein - Analyst

  • Got you. And then just as a quick follow-up, you gave us a little teaser about Farnborough and the EPFD aircraft. How are you thinking about hybrid electric and what it could mean for GE?

    了解。然後快速追問一下,你剛剛對范堡羅(Farnborough)以及EPFD飛機稍微賣了個關子。你們如何看待混合電動(hybrid electric),以及它可能對GE意味著什麼?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, a teaser is a teaser, Ron, and if I answered that question in full, it's no longer a teaser. I think you know as well as anybody that as much as we talk about open fan as one of the critical building blocks of the RISE technology development program, hybrid electric is one of those four key pillars.

    嗯,關子就是關子,Ron;如果我把這個問題完整回答了,那就不再是關子了。我想你跟任何人一樣清楚:儘管我們把開放式風扇(open fan)視為RISE技術開發計畫的關鍵基石之一,混合電動也是那四大關鍵支柱之一。

  • I think on the defense side, the same thing applies, and that's very much the reason for the investment -- the collaboration with BETA. The turbo generator program, we think, has a real fit with a number of defense applications that we can work on together.

    我認為在國防端也是同樣的道理,而這正是投資——與BETA合作——的重要原因。我們認為渦輪發電機(turbo generator)計畫非常適配多種國防應用,我們可以一起合作推進。

  • So more to come over the weekend and early next week. But I think both on the commercial and on the defense side, you're going to see electrification and thus hybrid electric being a more important part of our technological portfolio -- technology portfolio as we move forward. We'll see you there.

    所以這個週末以及下週初還會有更多消息。但我認為,無論是在商用端還是在國防端,隨著我們往前推進,你會看到電氣化、因此混合電力,將成為我們技術組合——技術組合中更重要的一部分。到時候見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

    Scott Mikus,Melius Research。

  • Scott Mikus - Equity Analyst

    Scott Mikus - Equity Analyst

  • Good morning, Larry and Rahul. Just a quick question. Given the financial pressure that airlines are feeling from the higher fuel prices, does that in any way impact your pricing strategy on CFM56, GE90, or any of the legacy engine programs?

    早安,Larry 和 Rahul。我有個簡短問題。鑑於航空公司因燃油價格上漲而承受財務壓力,這是否會以任何方式影響你們在 CFM56、GE90 或任何既有引擎專案上的定價策略?

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Scott, so what -- we clearly recognize that, but I think at the same time, there have been several -- the airlines have also recognized a lot of price. So I think the overall -- I think you're closer than I am, but the fact is what we are seeing is that the airlines are kind of largely holding their profitability levels through this uptick in pricing. But the way we think about our own pricing is that we make significant investments and we add a lot of capability to our customers and we want to be rewarded for that.

    Scott,所以——我們當然清楚這點,但同時我認為,航空公司也已經認知到相當多的漲價。所以我認為整體而言——我想你比我更貼近,但事實是我們看到航空公司大致上透過這波價格上調,維持住了他們的獲利水準。但我們對自身定價的思考方式是:我們做了重大的投資,為客戶增加了很多能力,而我們希望因此獲得相應的回報。

  • So that's the environment we are in. At the same time, we are facing inflationary headwinds as well. So broadly speaking, our pricing approach or on spare parts catalog for this year is going to be consistent with what we did last year. So that's kind of our approach for 2026.

    所以這就是我們所處的環境。同時,我們也面臨通膨帶來的逆風。因此廣義來說,我們今年的定價作法或備件型錄的作法,將會與去年一致。這大概就是我們對 2026 年的作法。

  • And then obviously longer term, we continue to get incremental pricing as we kind of moving away from those initial launch phases of LEAP and GEnx pricing, and the dollar per shop visit on those platforms has grown over the years that we've discussed previously. And that higher-priced shop visit will start showing up in our revenue book starting 2028, '29, and that obviously helps us get LEAP back to CFM56 profit levels by 2030.

    然後很明顯地,從更長期來看,隨著我們逐步走出 LEAP 與 GEnx 定價的初始導入階段,我們持續取得額外的定價提升;而我們先前也討論過,這些平台每次進廠維修(shop visit)的美元收入多年來一直在成長。而這些較高單價的進廠維修,將從 2028、2029 年開始反映在我們的營收帳上,這也顯然有助於我們在 2030 年前讓 LEAP 的獲利水準回到 CFM56 的水準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

    Kristine Liwag,Morgan Stanley。

  • Kristine Liwag - Analyst

    Kristine Liwag - Analyst

  • Hey. Good morning, everyone. Larry, Rahul, Blaire, it seems like the peak pain from LEAP durability issues and the post-COVID supply chain and labor constraints are behind you, and we're seeing this as throughput has improved meaningfully.

    嗨。各位早安。Larry、Rahul、Blaire,看起來 LEAP 耐久性問題的高峰痛點,以及後疫情時期供應鏈與勞動力限制,已經在你們身後了;我們也看到隨著產出量(throughput)明顯改善,情況正在好轉。

  • As these operational headwinds continue to ease, how should we think about incremental margins from this higher throughput and productivity, especially if it seems like the shape of that shop visits continue to be strong? Are there offsets we should keep in mind? Or do you have a very strong line of sight to a greater than 30% CES margin?

    隨著這些營運逆風持續緩解,我們應該如何看待更高產出量與生產力所帶來的增量利潤率,尤其是如果進廠維修(shop visits)的走勢看起來仍然強勁?是否有我們需要留意的抵銷因素?或者你們是否非常有把握看到 CES 利潤率高於 30%?

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Kristine, thanks for the question. Let me start, and I'll see if Larry wants to add anything here.

    Kristine,謝謝你的問題。我先開始回答,看看 Larry 是否想補充。

  • Overall, as we think about our margin trajectory, what we saw here in the second quarter, what we're experiencing for 2026 is very consistent with whatever we've been talking about. We've got three large issues on margins that we are working our way through. One, really strong install engine growth, which is absolutely needed given the demand that's out there, also feeds the install base that Larry spoke a few minutes earlier about what drives the long-term services growth. But strong install engine growth both last year and this year, and I'd expect that to continue.

    整體而言,當我們思考利潤率走勢時,我們在第二季看到的情況,以及我們對 2026 年的體驗,都與我們一直以來談的內容非常一致。我們正在處理三個對利潤率影響很大的議題。第一,是裝機引擎(install engine)成長非常強勁;考量到目前的需求,這絕對是必要的,同時也會擴大 Larry 幾分鐘前提到的裝機基礎(install base),而那正是驅動長期服務成長的關鍵。但裝機引擎在去年與今年都強勁成長,我預期這會持續。

  • LEAP services, as the platform broke even in 2024 on the services side, we're gradually moving up. Margins are getting better this year, both in the first half and expecting full-year margin expansion on LEAP. But overall, we expect still below overall CES service margins, and that is putting a little bit of pressure on our margins. We expect LEAP services margins to be in line with our total services portfolio by the time we get to 2028. So that's kind of the second issue we're dealing with.

    第二是 LEAP 服務:該平台在 2024 年於服務端損益兩平後,我們正逐步往上走。今年利潤率正在改善,上半年如此,且我們預期 LEAP 全年利潤率會擴張。但整體而言,我們預期仍會低於整體 CES 服務利潤率,這對我們的利潤率造成一些壓力。我們預期到 2028 年時,LEAP 服務利潤率將與我們整體服務組合一致。這就是我們正在處理的第二個議題。

  • And the third, and perhaps the biggest, is 9X. Initial units, highest cost units, and those are getting -- we started shipping those out last year, more this year, that volume will grow. And as we've previously said, we expect those losses to peak by the time we get into 2028. And beyond '28, we should see both losses come down and therefore the margins get better as well.

    第三個、也許是最大的,是 9X。初期出貨的單位是成本最高的單位;我們去年開始出貨,今年出貨更多,且該出貨量會成長。如同我們先前所說,我們預期這些虧損會在 2028 年左右達到高峰。而在 2028 年之後,我們應該會看到虧損下降,因此利潤率也會改善。

  • So those are the three issues. There's nothing structurally that is causing us to have this issue. It is all timing. But even with all these issues that we're dealing with, our margins at the total company level are largely flat. And that is because our services portfolio is the biggest part of the portfolio. It's the highest margin and it drives the highest dollar growth.

    所以這就是三個議題。沒有任何結構性因素導致我們出現這些問題。這完全是時間點的問題。但即便面對這些議題,我們在公司整體層級的利潤率大致上仍持平。這是因為我們的服務組合是整體組合中最大的一部分。它的利潤率最高,並且帶來最高的美元成長。

  • So as those headwinds abate, the inherent mix advantage that we have in our business continues. So overall, both for CES and for total company, we would expect margin expansion in '28 and beyond.

    因此,隨著這些逆風消退,我們業務中固有的組合優勢仍會延續。所以整體而言,無論是 CES 或公司整體,我們預期在 2028 年及之後利潤率會擴張。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

    Ken Herbert,RBC Capital Markets。

  • Ken Herbert - Analyst

    Ken Herbert - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi. Good morning. Maybe, Larry, you've mentioned recently being at the IATA general meeting or conversations there, and I think either in your prepared remarks or in the press release, you mentioned cost of ownership. One of the items we hear most from airlines is the new generation cost of ownership for the engines is much higher than before and in some ways maybe almost not sustainable for their legacy operating models.

    是的,你好。早安。也許,Larry,你最近提到你參加了 IATA 年會或在那裡的交流;我想不論是在你的事先準備發言或新聞稿中,你都提到了持有成本(cost of ownership)。我們從航空公司那裡最常聽到的一點是,新一代引擎的持有成本比以前高得多,某種程度上甚至可能對他們既有的營運模式而言幾乎難以持續。

  • How do you think about the airlines and their ability to absorb these costs and obviously continue to pay for the technology that you're investing in? And is this an area that you think maybe needs to be addressed in some form?

    你如何看待航空公司吸收這些成本的能力,並且顯然仍能持續為你們所投資的技術買單?而這是否是你認為可能需要以某種形式加以處理的領域?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Ken, there's no question, whether it be cost of ownership, whether it be time on wing, we've heard those concerns loud and clear. I think what I was encouraged by in IATA and also in some of the recent customer feedback that we've got is I think people see us here in the short term doing all that we can to support them.

    Ken,毫無疑問,不論是持有成本,或是翼上時間(time on wing),我們都非常清楚地聽到了這些擔憂。我在 IATA 以及近期收到的一些客戶回饋中感到鼓舞的是,我認為大家看到我們在短期內正盡一切所能來支持他們。

  • We've got LEAP AOG's, aircraft on the ground, down to near zero at the moment, despite the fact that the durability kit is not fully installed. And we're doing that through a combination of making sure we've got adequate spare engine coverage in the field. We're reducing the turnaround times, I mentioned that as well, in our shops. And everything that we're doing is to make sure that we are avoiding having that asset in a non-revenue situation.

    我們的 LEAP AOG(停場待修、飛機停在地面)目前已降到接近零,儘管耐久性套件尚未完全安裝。我們透過多種方式做到這點,包括確保現場有足夠的備用引擎覆蓋。我們也在縮短我們維修廠的周轉時間,我也提到過這點。而我們所做的一切,都是為了確保避免該資產處於無營收的狀態。

  • Longer term, there's no question that customers love the engine. They love the fuel efficiency and what they see in the LEAP. I think the order book is a proof point in that regard. But we need to make sure that, in addition to the short-term measures, that we are, both with the LEAP-1A and the LEAP-1B, getting that durability kit in place, supporting the retrofit of the install base as quickly as we can so that the issues that you've referenced become a thing of the past as soon as possible.

    從較長期來看,毫無疑問客戶很喜歡這款引擎。他們喜歡其燃油效率,以及他們在 LEAP 上看到的表現。我認為訂單簿就是這方面的有力佐證。但我們需要確保,除了短期措施之外,無論是 LEAP-1A 還是 LEAP-1B,我們都能把耐久性套件落實到位,並盡可能快速地支援既有裝機基礎的改裝(retrofit),讓你所提到的問題能夠儘快成為過去式。

  • So not in any way declaring victory here; we understand where our customers are in this regard. But again, I think we're encouraged by the state of play and the tone today. Much better, I would submit, than it was a year ago, but unfinished business.

    所以我們絕不是在這裡宣告勝利;我們理解客戶在這方面的處境。但再說一次,我認為我們對目前的進展狀態與今天的氛圍感到鼓舞。我認為這比一年前好得多,但仍有未竟之事。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gautam Khanna, TD Securities.

    Gautam Khanna,TD Securities。

  • Gautam Khanna - Analyst

    Gautam Khanna - Analyst

  • Yes, thanks. Good morning, guys. I was hoping you could help square the second-quarter services growth of up 22% with the intra-quarter comments about spares orders up 40 through the first two months. I know that's about 40% of the service business, but if you could just talk to us about what happened in June and kind of the components within service orders, spares, LTSA, and the like. Thanks.

    是的,謝謝。各位早安。我希望你們能協助釐清第二季服務業務成長 22%,與季內評論提到備件訂單在前兩個月成長 40% 之間的關係。我知道那大約占服務業務的 40%,但如果可以的話,請談談 6 月發生了什麼,以及服務訂單內部的構成,例如備件、LTSA(長期服務協議)等等。謝謝。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Okay. Thanks, Gautam.

    好的。謝謝你,Gautam。

  • Yeah, as you said, spare parts make up about 40% of our total revenue. So in those parts, we were talking about spare parts growth order rate of about 40% kind of mid-quarter. And there's been some normalization in spare parts orders in the last couple of weeks from a very high level. Those are exceptional results and kind of honestly unsustainable levels at the first part of the end of the first quarter, start of the second quarter.

    是的,如你所說,備件約占我們總營收的 40%。因此在那部分,我們在季中提到備件訂單成長率大約 40%。而在過去幾週,備件訂單已從非常高的水準出現一些正常化。那些是非常亮眼、坦白說在第一季末到第二季初那段期間難以持續的水準。

  • So we expected some normalcy, and that has started to happen, we saw some normalization here. But overall, first-half service orders are in the 34% range. And that 34% for first half this year is actually an acceleration for what we saw in first half of last year on a year-over-year basis and even second half of last year. So we've seen continued sequential growth, continued acceleration of trends in service orders.

    所以我們預期會回歸常態,而這也開始發生,我們確實看到一些正常化。但整體而言,上半年服務訂單約在 34% 的區間。而今年上半年的 34%,相較於去年上半年(年對年)甚至去年下半年,其實是加速的。因此我們看到服務訂單持續的連續成長,以及趨勢持續加速。

  • So I think the momentum is very strong. Obviously, we spoke about the delinquency being up even with the 34% growth in spare parts orders for the first half and delinquencies up 20%. So the demand is there, we're trying to meet that demand, but overall, I think we feel very comfortable with the outlook.

    所以我認為動能非常強。當然,我們也談到即使上半年備件訂單成長 34%,逾期(delinquency)仍上升 20%。所以需求確實存在,我們正努力滿足該需求,但整體而言,我認為我們對展望感到非常放心。

  • Anything you want to add?

    你還想補充什麼嗎?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No, I mean, I think you said it right. We do not have a demand problem. I think we've touched on that a number of times through the course of the call, $170 billion of services backlog, CFM56 retirements low. Our shop visit outlook is probably trending now toward the high end of that 2,300 to 2,400 range this year. And next, we mentioned the fact that we're oversubscribed here in '26 from an internal shop visit perspective.

    沒有,我是說,我覺得你講得很到位。我們沒有需求問題。我們在電話會議中多次提到這點:1,700 億美元的服務積壓訂單、CFM56 退役量偏低。我們對今年進廠維修(shop visit)的展望,現在可能正朝 2,300 到 2,400 這個區間的高端發展。另外,我們也提到,從內部進廠維修產能的角度來看,我們在 2026 年已經是超額認購(oversubscribed)。

  • So it's largely going to be about continuing the progress and the real progress I think we've seen here in the first half with the supply chain. And that is very much the order of the day as we get ready for the second half, let alone 2027.

    所以重點很大程度上會是持續推進進展,尤其是我們在上半年於供應鏈方面看到的實質進展。而這正是我們在準備下半年、更不用說 2027 年時的首要任務。

  • Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

    Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

  • Liz, we have time for one last question.

    Liz,我們還有時間再問最後一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

    Robert Stallard,Vertical Research。

  • Robert Stallard - Analyst

    Robert Stallard - Analyst

  • Thanks so much. Good morning.

    非常感謝。早安。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning.

    早安。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sorry about the loss yesterday, Rob.

    Rob,對於你昨天的失利感到遺憾。

  • Robert Stallard - Analyst

    Robert Stallard - Analyst

  • Just a quick question for you. I was wondering if you could give us an update on the spare engine ratio in the quarter and whether you're seeing any change in customer buying patterns as you roll out these durability improvements on the LEAP. Thank you.

    我這邊只有一個簡短問題。我想請問你們能否更新一下本季的備用引擎比率(spare engine ratio),以及在你們推出 LEAP 的這些耐久性改善之際,是否看到客戶採購模式有任何變化。謝謝。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. On spares, Rob, overall, we are seeing some normalization, but the number of spare engines that we are shipping, they continue to grow up, so they continue to grow. So it's not -- the spare engine ratio is coming down just given our growth in install engine shipments, but the number of spares that we've delivered here in the first half, they've gone up.

    好的。關於備品(spares),Rob,整體而言我們確實看到一些正常化,但我們出貨的備用引擎數量仍在增加,也就是持續成長。所以並不是——備用引擎比率在下降,主要是因為我們裝機引擎出貨成長所致,但我們在上半年交付的備用引擎數量是增加的。

  • So that's what we're expecting. But overall, we are kind of in the low-double-digit range for LEAP, life of program, and that's very close to 10% to 12% that we expect at maturity. So expecting this gradual normalization to continue into 2027, but we're getting to the point where it's kind of at the run rate level. By the time we exit the year, it should be at the run rate level.

    所以這符合我們的預期。但整體而言,就 LEAP 而言,在整個專案生命週期(life of program)中,我們大致處於低雙位數區間,這非常接近我們在成熟期預期的 10% 到 12%。因此我們預期這種逐步正常化會持續到 2027 年,但我們正接近一個點,也就是大致已達到常態運行(run rate)的水準。到今年年底時,應該就會達到常態運行水準。

  • Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

    Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

  • Larry, any final comments?

    Larry,還有最後的補充嗎?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Blaire, thank you.

    Blaire,謝謝。

  • Maybe just in closing, our priorities remain clear: deliver for our customers, improve time on wing, and lower cost of ownership. FLIGHT DECK is helping us turn those priorities into measurable results. We have more to do, but are confident in our path ahead and long-term value creation for both our customers and our shareholders.

    最後做個總結,我們的優先事項仍然很清楚:為客戶交付成果、提升在翼時間(time on wing),並降低持有成本。FLIGHT DECK 正在幫助我們把這些優先事項轉化為可衡量的成果。我們還有更多工作要做,但我們對前進路徑以及為客戶與股東創造長期價值充滿信心。

  • We thank you for your time today and your continued interest in GE Aerospace.

    感謝各位今天撥冗參與,以及持續關注 GE Aerospace。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷線。