奇異 (GE) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q1 2026 營收年增 29%,EPS 年增 25% 至 $1.86,營運利潤年增 18%,自由現金流年增 14%
    • 維持全年指引不變,但強調目前表現趨向高標,全年營收預期為低雙位數成長,EPS $7.10-$7.40,自由現金流 $8B-$8.4B
    • 中東衝突及全球經濟不確定性下,市場需求強勁,商用服務與設備訂單創新高,盤後市場反應未提及
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 商用服務(CES)訂單年增 93%,服務收入年增 39%,設備收入年增 20%,引擎交付量年增 50%
      • 強勁的備品需求與超過 $170B 的商用服務積壓訂單,未來數年需求可見度高
      • 防禦業務(DPT)訂單年增 67%,防禦交付年增 24%,獲得美國海軍陸戰隊 $14 億 T408 引擎合約
      • FLIGHT DECK 數位化協作與 AI 應用提升產能、縮短維修週期、降低成本
      • 持續投資美國製造與供應鏈($10 億),擴大 LEAP 耐久升級與維修能力
    • 風險:
      • 中東地緣衝突導致全年全球航班起降展望下修至持平至低個位數成長,對服務需求有遞延影響
      • 備品出貨延遲(delinquency)年增約 70%,供應鏈仍受限於需求大於供給
      • 油價高企、燃油可得性及全球 GDP 成長放緩,對航空需求構成壓力
      • 下半年備品成長可能減速、維修工作範圍縮小、備用引擎出貨遞延
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • CES(商用引擎與服務):訂單年增 93%,服務收入年增 39%,設備收入年增 20%,引擎交付量年增 50%,LEAP 交付年增 63%
    • DPT(防禦與推進技術):訂單年增 67%,營收年增 19%,單位交付年增 24%,防禦訂單 book-to-bill >2
    • 備品收入:年增超過 25%,備品訂單自 3 月起年增超過 30%
    • 內部維修(shop visit)收入:年增 35%,LEAP 維修年增超過 50%
    • 備品出貨延遲(delinquency):自 2024 年底以來年增約 70%
  4. 財務預測
    • 全年營收預估:低雙位數成長,服務收入年增約 $4B(原預期 $3.5B)
    • 全年 EPS 指引:$7.10-$7.40
    • 全年自由現金流預估:$8B-$8.4B
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 服務成長是否會受航班起降下修影響?對 CFM56/GE90 退役有何預期?
      A: 短期內受強勁訂單與積壓支撐,2026 年服務成長可望達高標,若航班持續疲弱,對服務需求有遞延效應但非需求消失,目前退役率仍低於預期。
    • Q: Q1 備品訂單強勁,是否有客戶提前下單(pre-buy)現象?
      A: 未見提前下單行為,需求強勁主要來自全球各區域與機型,且備品出貨延遲仍在上升,顯示供應鏈仍追不上需求。
    • Q: LEAP 維修利潤率趨勢與長期展望?
      A: LEAP 服務利潤率 2026 年持續提升,預期 2028 年可達 CES 整體服務水準,主要來自維修量提升、修理件開發倍增及外部維修通路擴大。
    • Q: 備品出貨延遲(delinquency)持續上升,何時可望改善?
      A: 主因需求大於供給,雖供應鏈改善但仍需時間消化積壓,目標為零延遲,將持續透過 FLIGHT DECK 與供應商協作提升交付。
    • Q: 中東衝突、油價高企下,對低成本航空或財務壓力較大客戶的曝險如何?
      A: 目前未見客戶行為異常或需求顯著下滑,訂單與維修需求仍強勁,會持續密切監控並審慎管理支出與風險。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    各位女士、先生,大家好,歡迎參加 GE Aerospace 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 我是 Liz,今天將擔任各位的會議協調員。(接線員指示) 提醒各位,本次會議將進行錄音。

  • I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Blaire Shoor from the GE Aerospace investor relations team. Please proceed.

    現在我想把會議交給今天的主持人——來自 GE Aerospace 投資人關係團隊的 Blaire Shoor。請開始。

  • Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

    Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE Aerospace's first quarter 2026 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO Larry Culp and CFO Rahul Ghai. Many of the statements we're making are forward looking and based on our best view of the world and our business as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and website, those elements may change as the world changes. Additionally, Larry and Rahul will speak to total company and corporate financial results and guidance today on a non-GAAP basis.

    謝謝你,Liz。歡迎參加 GE Aerospace 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一同出席的有董事長兼執行長 Larry Culp,以及財務長 Rahul Ghai。我們今天所做的許多陳述屬於前瞻性陳述,並以我們目前對世界與公司業務的最佳判斷為基礎。如同我們在 SEC 申報文件與網站所述,這些因素可能會隨著世界變化而改變。此外,Larry 與 Rahul 今天將以非 GAAP 基礎說明公司整體與企業層級的財務結果與指引。

  • Now, over to Larry.

    接下來交給 Larry。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Blaire. Good morning, everyone. I want to start by addressing the conflict in the Middle East and the dynamic geopolitical environment our industry is navigating. While we're hopeful for a peaceful resolution, we're also embracing today's reality. With safety our top priority, we're focused every day on supporting our teams in the region and our customers globally.

    謝謝你,Blaire。各位早安。我想先談談中東的衝突,以及我們產業正在因應的動態地緣政治環境。我們期盼能和平解決,但同時也正面迎接當前的現實。在安全為最高優先的前提下,我們每天都專注於支持在該地區的團隊,以及全球的客戶。

  • At GE Aerospace, we remain committed to our purpose. We invent the future of flight, lift people up, and bring them home safely. Right now, nearly 1 million people are in flight with our technology under wing, a responsibility our 57,000 employees take seriously.

    在 GE Aerospace,我們仍然堅守我們的使命。我們發明飛行的未來,讓人們振奮,並安全地把他們帶回家。此刻,近 100 萬人正搭乘配備我們翼下技術的航班在空中飛行——這是一項我們 57,000 名員工都嚴肅以待的責任。

  • Turning to our first quarter results, 2026 is off to a strong start. Orders were up 87%, with CES nearly doubling, and DPT up 67%, including record defense orders for this decade. Revenue increased 29%, driven by CES services, and double-digit growth in DPT. Operating profit grew 18%, with both segments up double digits. And EPS increased 25%, to $1.86, with free cash flow up 14%.

    回到第一季業績,2026 年開局強勁。訂單成長 87%,其中 CES 幾乎翻倍,DPT 成長 67%,並包含本十年創紀錄的國防訂單。營收成長 29%,主要由 CES 服務帶動,且 DPT 亦呈現雙位數成長。營業利益成長 18%,兩個事業部門皆為雙位數成長。每股盈餘(EPS)成長 25% 至 1.86 美元,自由現金流成長 14%。

  • FLIGHT DECK enabled us to improve output again, with commercial services revenue up 39%, and total engine deliveries up 43%. All the while, we're continuously investing to improve time on wing, and lower cost of ownership for our customers across our current fleet, and for next-generation technologies. I want to express a big thank you to both the GE Aerospace team and our supplier partners for their unwavering commitment to deliver for our customers.

    FLIGHT DECK 使我們再次提升產出,商用服務營收成長 39%,引擎總交付量成長 43%。同時,我們持續投資以提升在翼時間(time on wing),並降低客戶在現有機隊以及下一代技術上的持有成本。我想向 GE Aerospace 團隊以及我們的供應商夥伴致上誠摯的感謝,感謝大家堅定不移地承諾為客戶交付成果。

  • Turning to slide 4, and what we're currently seeing in today's operating environment. In the first quarter, global departures were up low single digits, including a high single-digit decline in the Middle East, which represents roughly 5% of our departures. And for the balance of the year, we've assessed multiple scenarios to develop a range of outcomes, with our current assumption that the conflict and its effects continue through the summer.

    請看第 4 頁投影片,談談我們目前在營運環境中所看到的情況。第一季全球起降架次呈現低個位數成長,其中中東地區下滑高個位數;中東約占我們起降架次的 5%。至於今年其餘時間,我們已評估多種情境以形成一系列可能結果;目前的假設是衝突及其影響將延續至夏季。

  • As a result, we're reducing our full-year departures outlook from mid-single-digit growth to flat -- low single-digit growth. This includes a low double-digit decline in the Middle East for the year, with modest reductions to other regions. Based on our experience during the global financial crisis, the impact of services will likely lag changes in air traffic demand by several quarters, to be followed by a period of above-average growth.

    因此,我們將全年起降架次展望由原先的中個位數成長,下修至持平至低個位數成長。其中包含中東地區全年低雙位數下滑,其他地區則小幅下修。根據我們在全球金融危機期間的經驗,服務業務受到的影響通常會落後航空運輸需求變化數個季度,之後則可能進入一段高於平均的成長期。

  • We're well-positioned to navigate cycles, with our backlog providing resilience through changes in air traffic. And we have a young and diverse fleet, with leading programs in both narrow-body and wide-body. For our largest program, the CFM56, about two-thirds of the fleet is yet to undergo a second shop visit, and utilization remains stable, supporting continued demand.

    我們具備良好條件以因應景氣循環,因為我們的在手訂單可在航空運量變動時提供韌性。我們的機隊年齡結構年輕且多元,在窄體與廣體兩大領域皆有領先的機型專案。以我們最大的專案 CFM56 而言,約三分之二的機隊尚未進行第二次進廠維修(shop visit),且使用率仍維持穩定,支撐持續需求。

  • Additionally, our defense business is supporting US and allied warfighters, with our engines powering the Black Hawk, the Apache, the B-1, the B-2, the F-15EX, the F-16, and the Eurofighter. We're seeing increased utilization since March, creating future aftermarket demand.

    此外,我們的國防業務正支援美國及盟國作戰人員;我們的引擎為 Black Hawk、Apache、B-1、B-2、F-15EX、F-16 與 Eurofighter 提供動力。自 3 月以來,我們看到使用率提升,將帶動未來售後市場需求。

  • Diving deeper into services orders and backlog, our commercial services business is supported by a robust backlog of over $170 billion, up nearly $30 billion since the end of '24, providing visibility into multi-year demand and supporting our continued growth. Over the last 12 months, commercial services orders increased over 30%, including 49% growth in the first quarter.

    進一步看服務訂單與在手訂單,我們的商用服務業務由超過 1,700 億美元的強勁在手訂單支撐,較 2024 年底增加近 300 億美元,提供多年期需求能見度並支持我們持續成長。過去 12 個月,商用服務訂單成長超過 30%,其中第一季成長 49%。

  • Within services, demand remains strong for spare parts, which represent roughly 40% of services revenue. Since the beginning of March, spare parts orders are up over 30% year-over-year, and sequentially flat to the first two months of the first quarter. And even with over 25% revenue growth over the last five quarters, demand continues to exceed supply.

    在服務業務中,備品需求依然強勁,備品約占服務營收的 40%。自 3 月初以來,備品訂單年增超過 30%,且相較第一季前兩個月呈現環比持平。即便過去五個季度營收成長超過 25%,需求仍持續高於供給。

  • As a result, spare parts delinquency, which represents shipments that have been delayed due to material availability constraints, is up roughly 70% since the end of '24. Given the sustained demand environment and our existing delinquency, we're entering the second quarter with more than 95% of spare parts revenue already in backlog.

    因此,備品逾期交付(delinquency)——亦即因材料供應受限而延遲出貨的項目——自 2024 年底以來增加約 70%。在需求環境持續強勁且既有逾期交付仍在的情況下,我們進入第二季時,超過 95% 的備品營收已在在手訂單中。

  • Turning to internal shop visits, which represent roughly 60% of our services revenue, approximately two-thirds of the engines due for our projected shop visits for all of '26 are currently off-wing, either in our shops or waiting to be inducted. Additionally, we have high visibility into the engines which will come off wing over the next couple of quarters based on utilization trends and required removal thresholds in concert with the airlines.

    再看內部進廠維修(internal shop visits),其約占我們服務營收的 60%。就我們對 2026 年全年預估的進廠維修量而言,約三分之二的引擎目前已離翼(off-wing),不是在我們的維修廠內,就是正在等待入廠。此外,根據使用率趨勢以及與航空公司共同設定的必要拆換門檻,我們對未來幾個季度將離翼的引擎也具備高度能見度。

  • Our pipeline of planned engine removals in the second and third quarters, combined with engines that are currently off wing, exceeds our shop visit guide, providing ample demand to fulfill our outlook and de-risking our 2026 guide. Overall, we expect a limited impact on services revenue and profit in '26. We're holding our full year guidance across the board, given the macro uncertainty, though with our strong start to the year, we are trending toward the high end of that range.

    第二、第三季規劃中的引擎拆換管線,加上目前已離翼的引擎,合計高於我們的進廠維修指引,提供充足需求以支撐我們的展望,並降低 2026 年指引風險。整體而言,我們預期 2026 年服務營收與獲利受影響有限。鑑於總體不確定性,我們維持全年各項指引不變;不過在今年強勁開局之下,我們正朝該區間的高端推進。

  • Shifting to slide 6, FLIGHT DECK is fundamentally changing the way we operate, and at times like these, it matters even more. Collaborative problem solving with suppliers, air framers, airlines, and lessors are key to this effort. For example, we recently hosted a key supplier at our Terre Haute, Indiana site. Leveraging FLIGHT DECK, we worked together to improve flow and reduce waste on their lead production line, and they've since increased output by over 40%.

    接著看第 6 頁投影片,FLIGHT DECK 正從根本上改變我們的營運方式,而在這樣的時刻,它更顯重要。與供應商、機體製造商、航空公司與租賃公司協作解題,是這項工作的關鍵。例如,我們最近在印第安納州 Terre Haute 廠區接待了一家關鍵供應商。運用 FLIGHT DECK,我們共同改善其主要產線的流程並減少浪費,之後他們的產出提升超過 40%。

  • Actions like these contributed to priority supplier material input, increasing double digits both sequentially and year-over-year again in the first quarter, resulting in the increased outputs I mentioned ago, including engines up 43%. Across our MRO network, we're using FLIGHT DECK to increase output, reduce turnaround times, and lower the cost of shop visits.

    這類行動促成優先供應商的材料投入在第一季再次呈現環比與年比皆為雙位數成長,進而帶來我先前提到的產出提升,包括引擎交付量成長 43%。在我們的 MRO 網絡中,我們正運用 FLIGHT DECK 提升產出、縮短周轉時間,並降低進廠維修成本。

  • Take our McAllen, Texas site, where we reduced LEAP high pressure turbine repair time by over 50% by redesigning the cell for better flow, and we know AI will be an accelerator for FLIGHT DECK. At our Lafayette, Indiana facility, we expanded the deployment of an AI-based material assistant to predict shop visit work scopes for LEAP engines nine months in advance. Building on the turnaround time reduction, we've recognized in both our Selma and Malaysia sites.

    以德州 McAllen 廠為例,我們透過重新設計工作單元(cell)以改善流程,使 LEAP 高壓渦輪維修時間縮短超過 50%;我們也相信 AI 將成為 FLIGHT DECK 的加速器。在印第安納州 Lafayette 廠,我們擴大部署一套以 AI 為基礎的材料助理,可提前九個月預測 LEAP 引擎進廠維修的工作範疇。在縮短周轉時間的成果基礎上,我們也已在 Selma 與馬來西亞廠區取得成效並加以確認。

  • Collectively, our efforts improved shop visit turnaround times for both narrow-body and wide-body platforms year-over-year. With our growing install base, we're focused on expanding capacity to fulfill customer demand. Within the LEAP external network, Delta Tech Ops is now the first North American airline MRO provider licensed for both the LEAP-1A and LEAP-1B. And we just announced Iberia as our seventh premier MRO, supporting growth in Europe.

    整體而言,我們的努力使窄體與寬體平台的維修車間周轉時間較去年同期均有所改善。隨著我們的裝機基數持續成長,我們正專注於擴充產能以滿足客戶需求。在 LEAP 外部網路中,Delta Tech Ops 現已成為北美首家同時取得 LEAP-1A 與 LEAP-1B 授權的航空公司 MRO 供應商。此外,我們剛宣布 Iberia 成為我們第七家頂級 MRO,支援歐洲業務成長。

  • More broadly, maintaining US aerospace leadership requires sustained investment to meet customer demand. We recently announced plans to invest $1 billion in our US manufacturing sites and supply base for the second consecutive year to help accelerate engine deliveries, ramp part production that extends time on wing, and strengthen our defense industrial base.

    更廣泛而言,維持美國在航太領域的領導地位,需要持續投資以滿足客戶需求。我們近期宣布,連續第二年計畫在美國製造據點與供應鏈基礎投資 10 億美元,以協助加速引擎交付、提升可延長在翼時間的零件產量,並強化國防工業基礎。

  • Additionally, $100 million will be invested in our external supplier base to provide equipment and tooling to increase capacity. These actions and investments are driving meaningful progress to increase services and equipment output. And while there's more to do, we're off to a strong start and positioned to ramp even further.

    此外,我們將在外部供應商體系投資 1 億美元,提供設備與工裝治具以提升產能。這些行動與投資正推動服務與設備產出實現具體進展。儘管仍有更多工作要做,我們已強勢開局,並具備進一步加速提升的有利位置。

  • Shifting to slide 7, our growing backlog reflects our commitment to deliver customer value. We're investing to improve time on wing and cost of ownership. Nearly $200 million of our $1 billion investment in US manufacturing supports expanding capacity for LEAP durability upgrades. And we're making progress upgrading this LEAP with durability kit now on over 30% of the LEAP-1A installed base.

    切換到第 7 張投影片,我們不斷增加的積壓訂單反映了我們致力於為客戶交付價值的承諾。我們正投資以改善在翼時間並降低持有成本。在我們於美國製造的 10 億美元投資中,近 2 億美元用於擴充 LEAP 耐久性升級的產能。我們也在推進這項 LEAP 耐久性套件的升級,目前已覆蓋超過 30% 的 LEAP-1A 裝機基數。

  • Growing our repair capability is critical to improve turnaround times and lower cost of ownership, as a repaired part can cost 50% less than a new part. At our Singapore repair facility, we're investing $300 million to support new technologies and repair processes. Our customer-driven approach is driving backlog growth with more than 650 commercial engines for over $1 billion in wins in the first quarter alone.

    提升我們的維修能力對於改善周轉時間並降低持有成本至關重要,因為修復後的零件成本可比新零件低 50%。在新加坡維修設施,我們正投資 3 億美元以支援新技術與維修流程。以客戶需求為導向的方法正推動積壓訂單成長,僅第一季就取得超過 6.5 億美元的商用引擎訂單,金額超過 10 億美元。

  • This included extending our 50-plus year partnership with American as they celebrate their 100th anniversary this month. American recently committed to more than 300 LEAP-1A engines with options for 200 more to power future A321neo and A321XLR deliveries. United, also celebrating 100 years this month, selected 300 GEnx engines for its 787 fleet, making it the largest GEnx operator globally. And additionally, Delta committed to 60 GEnx engines with options for 60 more for its new 787 fleet, marking its first GEnx selection.

    其中包括在 American 本月慶祝成立 100 週年之際,延長我們超過 50 年的合作夥伴關係。American 近期承諾採購超過 300 具 LEAP-1A 引擎,並另有 200 具選購權,用於未來 A321neo 與 A321XLR 的交付。同樣在本月慶祝 100 週年的 United,為其 787 機隊選擇 300 具 GEnx 引擎,使其成為全球最大的 GEnx 營運商。此外,Delta 承諾採購 60 具 GEnx 引擎,並另有 60 具選購權,用於其新的 787 機隊,這也標誌著其首次選用 GEnx。

  • In services, we signed an agreement with Ryanair covering approximately 2,000 CFM56 and LEAP engines, providing material support and MRO services to scale their in-house capabilities, consistent with our open MRO strategy.

    在服務方面,我們與 Ryanair 簽署協議,涵蓋約 2,000 具 CFM56 與 LEAP 引擎,提供材料支援與 MRO 服務,以擴大其內部能力,符合我們的開放式 MRO 策略。

  • And in defense, in support of the CH-53K and the critical missions it performs for the US Marine Corps, we were awarded a $1.4 billion contract for additional T408 turboshaft engines. With continued momentum, we're looking forward to what should be an exciting Farnborough Air Show in July. Our experience with our current fleet is also informing next-generation technology investment.

    在國防方面,為支援 CH-53K 以及其為美國海軍陸戰隊執行的關鍵任務,我們獲得一份 14 億美元合約,用於追加 T408 渦輪軸引擎。在動能持續之下,我們期待 7 月的范堡羅航空展將會非常精彩。我們對現役機隊的經驗也正在為下一代技術投資提供指引。

  • RISE is central to that strategy and will enable improved efficiency without sacrificing durability. This quarter, together with the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore and Airbus, we established the world's first airport testbed for open fan technology as a part of the RISE program. This testing will validate how next-gen engine architectures operate in real-world airline environments and marks another step forward toward ground and flight tests later this decade.

    RISE 是該策略的核心,將在不犧牲耐久性的前提下提升效率。本季,我們與新加坡民航局及 Airbus 共同建立了全球首個用於開放式風扇技術的機場測試平台,作為 RISE 計畫的一部分。此測試將驗證下一代引擎架構在真實航空公司營運環境中的運作方式,並標誌著朝向本十年稍晚的地面與飛行測試再向前邁進一步。

  • In defense and systems, we also continue to execute with speed against high-priority military needs in support of US and allied warfighters. This quarter, deliveries were up 24%, and we continue to receive awards across our family of small engines, a key growth area as programs progress. This included an award from the US Air Force to complete an initial design concept of the GEK1500 in partnership with Kratos, with potential applications across unmanned aerial systems, collaborative combat aircraft, or CCAs, and missiles.

    在國防與系統業務方面,我們也持續以速度執行,以滿足美國及盟軍作戰人員的高優先軍事需求。本季交付量成長 24%,且隨著各項計畫推進,我們在小型引擎產品家族持續獲得多項授標,這是關鍵的成長領域。其中包括美國空軍授予的一項獎項,與 Kratos 合作完成 GEK1500 的初步設計概念,潛在應用涵蓋無人航空系統、協同作戰航空器(CCA)以及飛彈。

  • This work is being informed by the maturity of the GEK800, which completed successful altitude testing last fall. The team designed, built, and tested the first GEK800 in less than 12 months, testing the fifth iteration of the engine last summer. And we're making progress with high-end CCAs through our partnership with Shield AI for the Expat Vehicle Program, pairing our propulsion development, testing, and certification expertise with their autonomous aircraft capabilities to accelerate delivery of mission-ready capabilities.

    這項工作也受益於 GEK800 的成熟度,該引擎於去年秋季完成成功的高空測試。團隊在不到 12 個月內完成首具 GEK800 的設計、製造與測試,並於去年夏天測試了該引擎的第五次迭代版本。此外,透過與 Shield AI 在 Expat Vehicle Program 的合作,我們在高端 CCA 方面也取得進展,結合我們在推進系統研發、測試與認證的專業能力,以及其自主飛行器能力,以加速交付可執行任務的能力。

  • We also recently completed a preliminary design review on the hybrid electric turbo generator engine system for BETA Technologies' MB250 VTOL autonomous aircraft. This confirms the engine concept and demonstrates the power of combining our technical expertise and accelerating key programs. Stepping back, we're driving measurable progress on what matters most to our customers, ramping output and improving durability while reducing the cost of ownership, which supports their growth and ours.

    我們近期也完成了針對 BETA Technologies 的 MB250 VTOL 自主航空器之混合電動渦輪發電機引擎系統的初步設計審查。這確認了引擎概念,並展現結合我們的技術專長、加速關鍵計畫的力量。總結來看,我們正就客戶最重視的事項推動可衡量的進展:提升產出、改善耐久性並降低持有成本,進而支援客戶成長與我們自身的成長。

  • Rahul, over to you.

    Rahul,交給你。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. We started the year with over 20% top line and earnings growth. Orders were up 87% on with CES up 93% and DPT up 67%. Revenue increased 29% with CES up 34%, while DPT was up 19%. The Operating profit was $2.5 billion, up approximately $380 million, driven by services volume and price.

    謝謝,各位早安。我們以超過 20% 的營收與獲利成長展開今年。訂單成長 87%,其中 CES 成長 93%,DPT 成長 67%。營收成長 29%,其中 CES 成長 34%,而 DPT 成長 19%。營業利益為 25 億美元,增加約 3.8 億美元,主要由服務量與價格帶動。

  • Margins, as expected, decreased 200 basis points to 21.8% from the impact of installed engine growth, investments and inflation. EPS was $1.86 up 25% from increased operating profit, a lower tax rate and a reduced share count. Free cash flow was $1.7 billion, up 14% largely driven by higher earnings. Working capital and AD&A combined was nearly a $500 million source with strong utilization billings partially offset by the expected timing of compensation payments.

    如預期,受裝機引擎成長、投資與通膨影響,利潤率下降 200 個基點至 21.8%。每股盈餘(EPS)為 1.86 美元,成長 25%,主要來自營業利益增加、較低的稅率以及股數減少。自由現金流為 17 億美元,成長 14%,主要由較高獲利所帶動。營運資金與 AD&A 合計近 5 億美元的資金來源,強勁的使用量計費部分抵銷了如預期的薪酬支付時點影響。

  • Going deeper on our 25% EPS growth this quarter. Growth in operating profit drove $0.29 or nearly 80% of the improvement in EPS with increased profit in CES and DPT. This was partially offset by higher corporate costs and eliminations, which were up around $120 million roughly half from an increase in eliminations and half from an increase in environmental, health and safety expenses off a low base.

    進一步說明本季 EPS 成長 25% 的原因。營業利益成長帶來 0.29 美元的貢獻,約占 EPS 改善的近 80%,來自 CES 與 DPT 的獲利提升。部分被較高的公司成本與沖銷所抵銷,約增加 1.2 億美元,其中約一半來自沖銷增加,另一半來自環境、健康與安全費用在低基期下的增加。

  • A lower tax rate and reduction in share count drove an additional $0.10 of EPS growth. Tax rates decreased 3 points to 14.7% from earnings mix and benefit from recent tax legislation. Share count was down $24 million from our previously announced capital allocation actions.

    較低的稅率與股數減少,額外帶來 0.10 美元的 EPS 成長。稅率因獲利組合以及近期稅法帶來的效益而下降 3 個百分點至 14.7%。由於我們先前宣布的資本配置行動,股數減少 2,400 萬股。

  • Turning to CES. In the first quarter, orders grew 93% with services up 49% and equipment more than tripling to nearly $8 billion. Revenue increased 34%. Services grew 39%, with internal shop visit revenue up 35% from higher volume, including LEAP internal shop visit growth of over 50% and increased work scopes. Spare part sales were also up over 25% from improved material availability and growth of external LEAP shop visits.

    接著看 CES。第一季訂單成長 93%,其中服務成長 49%,設備訂單增加逾三倍至接近 80 億美元。營收成長 34%。服務成長 39%,內部車間維修收入因量增而成長 35%,其中包括 LEAP 內部車間維修量成長超過 50%以及工作範圍擴大。備件銷售也因材料供應改善以及外部 LEAP 車間維修成長而增加超過 25%。

  • Equipment revenue grew 20% with engine deliveries up 50%, including LEAP, up 63%. Widebody deliveries were also up over 25%, driven by GEnx, which was up even more. Profit was $2.4 billion, up nearly $450 million from higher services, volume, price and the absence of charges related to estimated profitability on long-term service agreements taken in first quarter of 2025. As expected, margins were down 230 basis points to 26.4% in driven by installed engine growth, including 9X shipments and investments. Both installed engine and spare engine volume increased year-over-year with growth in installs outpaced spare engine growth.

    設備營收成長20%,引擎交付量成長50%,其中LEAP成長63%。寬體機交付量亦成長逾25%,主要由GEnx帶動,且其增幅更高。利潤為24億美元,因服務、銷量與價格提升,以及未再出現2025年第一季就長期服務協議(LTSA)估計獲利能力所提列之費用,較去年增加近4.5億美元。如預期,受已安裝引擎數量成長(包含9X出貨)及投資影響,利潤率下滑230個基點至26.4%。已安裝引擎與備用引擎的量皆較去年同期增加,其中裝機成長速度超過備用引擎成長。

  • Overall, CES continues to deliver meaningful growth, largely driven by services as OE ramps. In DPT, orders increased 67% and including T408 engines for US Marine Corps CH-53K. Defense book-to-bill was above 2 for the second consecutive quarter. Revenue grew 19% and Defense & Systems revenue was up 14% as units grew 24%, driven by an increase in F-110 and rotorcraft engines. Propulsion and Additive Technologies grew 29%. With growth across the portfolio, led by Aero.

    整體而言,CES持續實現具意義的成長,主要由服務帶動,因原廠(OE)產能爬坡。在DPT方面,訂單成長67%,其中包含供美國海軍陸戰隊CH-53K的T408引擎。國防業務的接單出貨比(book-to-bill)連續第二季高於2。營收成長19%,國防與系統(Defense & Systems)營收成長14%,因出貨單位數成長24%,主要由F-110與旋翼機引擎增加所帶動。推進與增材技術(Propulsion and Additive Technologies)成長29%。在Aero領軍下,產品組合各領域皆呈現成長。

  • Profit grew 17% from increased volume and price. Margins were down 20 basis points to 11.8% and driven by mix, investments and inflation. DPT delivered a solid first quarter with continued demand strength and improved output.

    利潤因銷量與價格提升而成長17%。利潤率下滑20個基點至11.8%,主要受產品組合、投資與通膨影響。DPT第一季表現穩健,需求持續強勁且產出改善。

  • Moving to guidance on Slide 12. Our first quarter exceeded expectations, given stronger spare part sales growth and shop business increase. We have a robust backlog supporting our growth for several years, and we are taking actions to navigate the current environment. Due to the dynamic macroeconomic backdrop, we are maintaining our guidance across the board. And as Larry mentioned, given our strong start to the year, we are trending towards the high end of the range of low double-digit revenue growth profit of $9.85 billion to $10.25 billion, EPS of $7.10 to $7.40 and free cash flow of $8 billion to $8.4 billion for total company.

    接著看第12頁的財測指引。第一季表現優於預期,主要因備品銷售成長更強,以及維修車間(shop)業務增加。我們擁有強勁的在手訂單(backlog),可支撐未來數年的成長,並正採取行動以因應當前環境。鑑於宏觀經濟背景變動,我們維持各項指引不變。如Larry所提,考量今年開局強勁,我們正朝向低雙位數營收成長區間的高端發展;全公司利潤指引為98.5億至102.5億美元,每股盈餘(EPS)7.10至7.40美元,自由現金流為80億至84億美元。

  • We are also maintaining our segment guidance for both CES and DPT with a similar trend towards the higher end. Our guidance is based on full year departures growth of flat to low single digits and is underpinned by the following assumptions: Fuel prices remain elevated above current levels through the third quarter and decreasing to current levels by year-end, a near-term impact from fuel availability in certain geographical regions, global reduction in GDP growth impacting air travel demand. This guidance doesn't contemplate a global recession unfolding.

    我們也維持CES與DPT兩個事業部的指引,且同樣偏向區間高端。我們的指引以全年航班起降(departures)成長持平至低個位數為基礎,並由以下假設支撐:燃油價格在第三季前維持高於目前水準,並於年底回落至目前水準;特定地理區域燃油供應可得性對短期造成影響;全球GDP成長下修影響航空旅行需求。此指引未納入全球性衰退發生的情境。

  • Near-term orders continue to be strong. and we expect the strength in the first quarter to continue into the second quarter with 95% of spare parts in backlog and all shop visits for the quarter already off-line. As a result, we are expecting second quarter services growth of high teens, above our full year guide and supporting total company year-over-year and sequential profit growth in the quarter.

    短期訂單仍然強勁。我們預期第一季的強勢將延續至第二季,因為在手訂單中95%為備品,且本季所有維修進廠(shop visits)都已排程完成並已下線。因此,我們預期第二季服務成長將達高十位數(high teens),高於全年指引,並支撐本季全公司利潤年增及季增。

  • For full year, we are now expecting services revenue is up roughly $4 billion year-over-year from approximately $3.5 billion expected previously, supporting our increase of profit and cash to high end of the range. However, as we get into the second half, we are taking a more measured view. Given the evolving environment and have included the potential impact from deacceleration in spare parts growth, lighter work scopes, delayed spare engine shipments and reduced billings within our guidance.

    就全年而言,我們目前預期服務營收年增約40億美元,高於先前預期的約35億美元,支撐我們將利潤與現金流推向指引區間高端。然而,進入下半年後,我們採取更審慎的看法。鑑於環境持續演變,我們已在指引中納入備品成長放緩、工作範圍縮小、備用引擎出貨延後,以及開立帳單(billings)減少的潛在影響。

  • While the external environment remains uncertain, we are taking proactive actions, including managing discretionary spending and conducting reviews to assess risks and opportunities to support our customers. Overall, balancing the various factors, we are confident in our ability to deliver the high end of our guidance given our strong first quarter outlook for the second quarter and a substantial backlog.

    儘管外部環境仍不確定,我們正採取主動措施,包括管理非必要支出,並進行檢視以評估風險與機會,從而支援客戶。整體而言,在權衡各項因素後,憑藉第一季強勁表現、第二季展望以及可觀的在手訂單,我們對於達成指引區間高端的能力充滿信心。

  • With that, Larry, back to you.

    接下來,Larry,交還給你。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Rahul, thanks. Our momentum is further supported by our sustained competitive advantages. With the industry's largest fleet, 80,000 engines and growing and more than 2.3 billion flight hours. We operate at scale with unmatched proximity to our customers across decades long life cycles, which makes us the partner of choice. Our field experience, combined with nearly $3 billion in annual R&D enables continuous improvement in time on wing and cost of ownership directly aligned with what our customers value most.

    Rahul,謝謝。我們的動能也進一步受到長期競爭優勢的支撐。我們擁有業界最大的機隊規模:8萬具引擎且持續成長,累計飛行時數超過23億小時。我們以規模化營運,並在跨越數十年生命週期中與客戶保持無可比擬的近距離連結,使我們成為首選合作夥伴。我們的現場經驗,加上每年近30億美元的研發投入,使我們能持續改善在翼時間(time on wing)與持有成本(cost of ownership),並直接對齊客戶最重視的價值。

  • Across narrow-body, wide-body regional and defense platforms, we offer leading performance under wing, supported by deep technology expertise and our growing services network. Our world-class engineering teams develop next-gen technology to improve durability, efficiency and turnaround times, along with advanced defense capabilities.

    在窄體、寬體、區域與國防平台上,我們提供領先的翼下性能(performance under wing),並由深厚的技術專長與持續擴張的服務網絡支撐。我們世界級的工程團隊開發下一代技術,以提升耐久性、效率與周轉時間,同時強化先進的國防能力。

  • And through FLIGHT DECK, we're turning strategy into results with a focus on safety, quality, delivery and cost, always in that order every day. With FLIGHT DECK, our over $210 billion backlog and the actions underway, we're well positioned to manage near-term uncertainty and deliver value.

    並且透過FLIGHT DECK,我們聚焦安全、品質、交付與成本(每天皆以此順序為先),把策略轉化為成果。憑藉FLIGHT DECK、超過2,100億美元的在手訂單,以及正在推進的各項行動,我們已做好準備以管理短期不確定性並創造價值。

  • With that, let's go to the questions.

    接下來進入提問。

  • Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

    Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

  • Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. Liz, can you please open the line?

    在開放電話線之前,我想請排隊中的各位考量其他分析師,每人只問一個問題,讓我們能盡量讓更多人發問。Liz,麻煩你開線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • David Strauss, Wells Fargo.

    Wells Fargo的David Strauss。

  • David Strauss - Equity Analyst

    David Strauss - Equity Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Thanks for the detail on how you're thinking about the aftermarket. But just wanted to clarify. So Larry, it sounds like you ultimately do expect an impact on services growth from your from your lower departures growth forecast, but maybe it sounds like you're thinking more so in '27 or carrying into '27 and '26 in the given your strong Q1 and the backlog that you have on the services side?

    謝謝。早安。謝謝讓我提問。也謝謝你們詳細說明對售後市場的看法。不過我想再釐清一下。Larry,聽起來你們最終確實預期,因你們較低的航班起降成長預測,服務成長會受到影響;但似乎你們認為影響可能更多是在'27年,或延續到'27年與'26年,考量你們強勁的Q1以及服務端的在手訂單?

  • And I guess in terms of what your -- how you're thinking this might play out, are you thinking at this point that there could be a pickup in CFM 56 or GE90 retirements? Or are you just expecting lower utilization to come through at this point?

    另外,就你們對可能發展的看法而言,你們目前是否認為CFM 56或GE90的退役會增加?還是你們只是預期此時會反映為較低的使用率?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • David, I think that what you see in the lean toward the high end of the guide is the expectation that we're going to have a strong second quarter given the visibility that we have, both with spare parts and shop visits. We touched on that earlier. And I think that's very meaningful. I think what we're acknowledging it's very hard for any of us to call the duration of what's happening in the Middle East at this point. By holding the guide, I think what we've suggested is that the backlog that we have, the visibility that we do have for the second half should allow us to be within that guide that we offered up 90 days ago.

    David,我認為你在我們偏向指引高端所看到的,是我們預期第二季會很強勁,因為我們對備品與維修進廠都有相當高的能見度。我們先前也提到過。我認為這非常重要。同時,我們也承認,就目前而言,我們任何人都很難判斷中東情勢將持續多久。透過維持指引,我認為我們所傳達的是:我們擁有的在手訂單,以及對下半年所具備的能見度,應可讓我們落在90天前所提供的指引範圍內。

  • I think we are acknowledging that if there is sustained softness in departures that there is an effect typically in the commercial services, but with a lag. Let's hope we're not staring at something akin to the GFC. We mentioned that in our prepared remarks, but there will be a lag effect. But at this point, I think given what we know, we feel strongly about our ability to deliver the high end of the guide here in '26.

    我們也承認,若航班起降持續疲弱,通常會對商用服務造成影響,但會有時間落後效應。希望我們不會面臨類似全球金融危機(GFC)的情況。我們在事先準備的談話中也提到過,但確實會有落後效應。不過就目前我們所掌握的資訊而言,我們對於在'26年達成此處指引高端的能力仍然很有信心。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And David, just to add to that, as we think about 2027, Larry said, we feel good about '26. But having leading positions in both narrow-body and wide-body, 75% share of the narrow-body cycles, 55% share of the widebody cycles, is helpful in times like this when traffic growth is uneven as it dampens the volatility that we see in the market.

    David,再補充一點,當我們展望2027年時,正如Larry所說,我們對’26感到樂觀。但同時在窄體與寬體兩個領域都擁有領先地位——窄體週期市占75%、寬體週期市占55%——在像現在這種運量成長不均衡的時期特別有幫助,因為它能抑制我們在市場中看到的波動性。

  • Also, the fleet is done. You touched on the CFM56 and GE90, one-third of the CFM56 have not seen their first shop visit, two-third have not seen a second shot of it. And similar trends for GE90, 70% of the GE90s have not seen the second shop visit. And we're not through -- I know it's early days, but as we sit here in April, both the number of parked aircraft and the retirements are really low.

    另外,機隊的狀況也已經明朗。你提到CFM56和GE90,CFM56中有三分之一尚未進行第一次進廠維修(shop visit),三分之二尚未進行第二次進廠維修。GE90也有類似趨勢,70%的GE90尚未進行第二次進廠維修。而且我們還沒走到尾聲——我知道現在還算早,但就我們在四月所看到的,停放的飛機數量與退役數量都非常低。

  • In fact, the retirements in the first quarter for CFM56 were lower than what we experienced in fourth quarter. So we've not seen any increase in either of those two trends. And as Larry mentioned in his prepared remarks, as we've seen in prior cycles, the air traffic has a strong recovery after every downturn. So if you see here, delay, if you see any impact here in the second half of the year, it is going to be a push out of demand versus a destruction.

    事實上,第一季CFM56的退役量比我們在第四季所經歷的還低。因此,我們尚未看到這兩個趨勢有任何上升。而如Larry在事先準備的講稿中提到的,從過往週期來看,每次下行之後航空運量都會強勁復甦。所以如果你看到今年下半年有任何影響,那將是需求延後(push out)而不是需求被摧毀(destruction)。

  • So again, it's hard to call '27 just yet. It all depends on how the situation evolves over the next few months. But it is early to call. But overall, we feel good about the trajectory that the business is on through the cycle.

    因此,再次強調,現在要判斷’27還為時過早。一切取決於未來幾個月情勢如何演變。現在下結論還太早。但整體而言,我們對業務在本輪週期中的發展軌跡感到樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

    Sheila Kahyaoglu,Jefferies。

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • Good morning, guys, and thank you. Maybe just a follow-up on David's comments. Larry and Rahul, Service is up 39% in Q1, great quarter, both on shop visits and spare parts and Q2 expected to be up high teens implying only mid- to high single digits in the second half.

    各位早安,謝謝你們。我想針對David的評論再追問一下。Larry和Rahul,服務業務第一季成長39%,是很棒的一季,不論是進廠維修量或備件;而第二季預期成長在十幾個百分點的高檔,這意味著下半年只有中到高個位數成長。

  • So maybe delving a little bit more into visibility you guys have through the summer and move you mentioned push out of demand not demand destruction. I guess how do we think about where you guys are seeing those potential risks post Q4, whether it's narrow-bodies or widebodies? And how do we think about retirement rates staying low today and potential assumptions for '26 and '27?

    所以想更深入了解你們對夏季期間的能見度,以及你們提到的「需求延後而非需求摧毀」。我想問的是,我們該如何看待你們在第四季之後看到的潛在風險,這些風險是出現在窄體機還是寬體機?另外,退役率目前維持低檔,我們對’26與’27的假設應該怎麼思考?

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So Sheila, I think we touched on a couple of things here. as you said, we see good visibility into the second quarter, right? We've said -- Larry and I both said 95% of the spare parts for the second quarter are in the backlog. All the engines that we need to work on for second quarter are in the shop.

    是的。Sheila,我想我們已經觸及幾個重點。正如你所說,我們對第二季有很好的能見度,對吧?我們說過——Larry和我都說過——第二季備件有95%已在積壓訂單(backlog)中。第二季我們需要維修的所有引擎都已在廠內(in the shop)。

  • And are also kind of provided a full year shop visit view here that we are about one-third oversubscribed right now from what's already offering and what will come off going here in the second and the third quarter. So that gives us confidence around 2026 here.

    此外,我們也提供了全年進廠維修量的視角:就目前已經提供的產能與第二、第三季將釋出的需求來看,我們現在大約超額認購三分之一。因此,這讓我們對2026年更有信心。

  • Now as we go to 2027 and where the risks may come, I think we touched on the retirement. You touched on retirement rates. Now keep in mind that the retirement rates that we assumed for, 2026 for CFM56 are in the 2% range. And what we saw in the first quarter is sub-1%. And as we get into 2027, we've already assumed in our prior outlook, the retirements increased to 3% to 4%.

    至於2027年以及風險可能來自哪裡,我想我們談到了退役。你也提到退役率。請記住,我們對2026年CFM56所假設的退役率大約在2%左右。而我們在第一季看到的是低於1%。至於2027年,我們在先前展望中已假設退役率提高到3%到4%。

  • So we -- just the outlook that we've provided, we've factored in certain increase in retirement. Now we've not seen that. We are not seeing anything concerning just yet. Our order trends are holding, but it is more what is unknown and that's a little bit of caution, prudence, whatever words you want to use, for the second half of the year, and I think time will play out and give us more visibility into '27. But overall, the business is strong, franchise is strong, and I think we should be able to navigate anything that comes that evolves here over the next few months.

    所以——就我們提供的展望而言,我們已把退役率的某種上升納入考量。但目前我們還沒有看到那樣的情況。到目前為止我們也沒有看到任何令人擔憂的跡象。我們的訂單趨勢仍然穩健,但更多的是「未知」帶來的些許保守、審慎——不管你想用什麼詞——針對今年下半年;我想時間會推進並讓我們對’27有更多能見度。但整體而言,業務很強、特許經營(franchise)很強,我認為我們應該能夠應對未來幾個月可能出現、並持續演變的任何情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

    Ken Herbert,RBC Capital Markets。

  • Ken Herbert - Analyst

    Ken Herbert - Analyst

  • Yeah, hi, good morning, Larry and Rahul, really strong spare parts orders in the first quarter. I'm just curious, especially your comment on March strengthening from the first two months. Do you get a sense that there was any pre-buying by your customers on the aftermarket ahead of potential disruptions or concerns down the road? I'm just curious as to what was underlying the real strength in orders in the quarter and if there could have been any pull forward in the order demand? Thank you.

    是的,嗨,早安,Larry和Rahul,第一季備件訂單非常強勁。我想請教一下,尤其你們提到3月相較前兩個月走強。你們是否感覺到客戶在售後市場有任何提前採購(pre-buying),以因應未來可能的干擾或疑慮?我想了解本季訂單強勁背後的原因,以及是否可能有任何需求提前拉貨(pull forward)?謝謝。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Ken, I don't think we have seen any evidence of a pull forward here to Rahul's comments just a moment ago, when you think about the breadth of the portfolio, narrow-body, wide-body on a global basis, we just haven't seen that sort of behavior. We also mentioned in the prepared remarks that as proud as we are of the operational progress that we've made, we still saw delinquency increase, which means we are past due on the spare part orders that we do have.

    Ken,我不認為我們看到任何提前拉貨的證據。呼應Rahul剛才的評論,當你考量產品組合的廣度——窄體、寬體、全球範圍——我們確實沒有看到那種行為。我們也在事先準備的講稿中提到,儘管我們對營運改善感到自豪,但我們仍看到逾期(delinquency)增加,這表示我們手上的備件訂單仍有逾期未交付的情況。

  • So I think customers are busy. There's still perhaps some pent-up demand from the pandemic that is working its way through the system. But to your specific question, we have not seen that behavior.

    所以我認為客戶很忙。也許仍有一些疫情期間累積的遞延需求(pent-up demand)正在逐步在系統中消化。但就你具體的問題而言,我們沒有看到那種行為。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

    Kristine Liwag,Morgan Stanley。

  • Kristine Liwag - Analyst

    Kristine Liwag - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning, everyone. Larry, Rahul, you talked a lot about demand, and I just want to dive a little bit deeper here. You talked about 2Q and 3Q engine removal pipelines are above your shop visit guide -- so holding the macro environment you called out, is this higher removal pipeline contemplated in your Upper Reach 2026 outlook? Or could we see revisions higher in the year if oil resolved in 3Q?

    嗨,各位早安。Larry、Rahul,你們談了很多需求,我想在這裡再深入一點。你們提到第二季與第三季的引擎拆換(engine removal)管線高於你們的進廠維修指引——在你們所提到的總體環境不變的前提下,這個較高的拆換管線是否已納入你們對Upper Reach 2026的展望?或者如果第三季油價問題解決,今年是否可能上修?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Kristine, good morning. I think it were not for current events, we'd be talking about an increase in the guide this morning not color and body language toward the high end of the existing range. In many respects, just given the backlog that we've highlighted a couple of times already, both in terms of spare parts, but also shop visits, absent a change in customer behavior and continued progress on our part relative to internal operational execution, that potential does exist, right?

    Kristine,早安。我認為如果不是因為當前事件,我們今天早上談的會是上調指引,而不是僅在既有區間的高端給一些補充說明與態度上的暗示。在很多方面,考量我們已多次強調的積壓訂單——不僅是備件,也包括進廠維修——在客戶行為不變、且我們內部營運執行持續改善的前提下,確實存在那樣的可能性,對吧?

  • But again, I think given current events, we thought it most prudent to simply stay with the range that we issued 90 days ago, provide a little bit more color, particularly with respect to not only quarter, but the first half year, and I won't repeat what we've already said.

    但再次強調,鑑於當前事件,我們認為最審慎的做法是維持90天前發布的區間不變,並提供更多補充說明,特別是關於不僅是單一季度,還包括上半年;我就不重複我們已經說過的內容了。

  • But I think in terms of our ability to control the controllable, feel very good about that. The progress that we've made with the supply base has been considerable already this year. I think it's just built on the progress over the last couple of years. And you see that not only in the input numbers we've cited. But in turn, the output numbers as well, both in terms of units and dollars. That should continue.

    但我認為就我們掌控可控因素的能力而言,我們非常有信心。今年我們在供應鏈基礎(supply base)方面取得的進展已相當可觀。我認為這是在過去幾年的進展之上持續累積。你不僅能從我們引用的投入端數據看到這點,也能從產出端數據看到——不論是數量(units)或金額(dollars)。這樣的趨勢應該會持續。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And Kristine, just as Larry said, to get to higher shop visit number, that is not factored into our guidance. So what we need to see is we'll need to see better material flow through here than what we are currently factored in to burn some of the delinquency that exists on both spare parts and the shop visits out. So that, to your point, will take our services guidance above where we have factored in around $4 billion of growth this year.

    Kristine,正如 Larry 所說,為了達到更高的進廠維修(shop visit)次數,這並未納入我們的指引之中。因此我們需要看到比目前假設更好的材料流轉,才能消化(burn off)目前在備品與進廠維修兩方面存在的逾期(delinquency)。所以如你所說,這將使我們的服務業務指引高於我們今年已納入的約 40 億美元成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

    Scott Deuschle,德意志銀行。

  • Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

    Scott Deuschle - Research Analyst

  • Rahul, I was wondering if you might share with us an update on LEAP aftermarket profitability and particularly how LEAP aftermarket margins are trending in 2026 relative to 2025. And then I'd love to get your latest thinking on the path to margin expansion on the program beyond '26 for the long term.

    Rahul,我想請你跟我們分享一下 LEAP 售後市場獲利能力的最新情況,特別是 2026 年相較 2025 年,LEAP 售後市場毛利率(margins)的走勢如何。另外也想聽聽你對於 2026 年之後、長期而言該專案(program)毛利率擴張路徑的最新看法。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. Now, Scott, on LEAP, the services business is trending really, really nicely. We're expecting a further improvement this year on margins. Trends have been good for the first half of the year here. And it's coming from a few things. It's coming from increased volume that we are driving in our shops.

    是的。Scott,關於 LEAP,服務業務的趨勢非常、非常好。我們預期今年毛利率會進一步改善。今年上半年趨勢一直不錯。這來自幾個因素。其中之一是我們在自有維修廠帶動的量增加。

  • Larry spoke about the repairs that we are developing in our aftermarket business. And this year, we expect the number of repairs that we're developing on LEAP to double over what we developed last year. So that is helping reduce the cost of the shop visit.

    Larry 也談到我們在售後市場業務中正在開發的維修(repairs)。而今年,我們預期在 LEAP 上所開發的維修項目數量將較去年翻倍。因此這有助於降低每次進廠維修的成本。

  • The external channel is coming up nicely as well. We are at now about 15% of our shop visits for LEAP are now performed by third parties. That number was close to 10% just 18, 20 months back. So that part of the business is developing nicely.

    外部通路也在良好成長。目前 LEAP 的進廠維修中,約有 15% 是由第三方執行。而在 18 到 20 個月前,這個比例接近 10%。所以這部分業務發展得很不錯。

  • So if you put all that together, if you think longer term to your second part of your question, we do expect the LEAP service margins start to get to overall CES service margins by the time we get into '28-ish timeframe. So really pleased with the progress for a business that was just kind of breakeven two years ago. I think we made a lot of progress here in the last 18 months.

    因此把這些綜合起來,針對你問題的第二部分、從更長期來看,我們確實預期 LEAP 服務毛利率在大約 2028 年左右,會開始達到整體 CES 服務毛利率的水準。所以對於一個兩年前大致上只是損益兩平的業務,我們對進展非常滿意。我認為過去 18 個月我們在這裡取得了很大進步。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

    Robert Stallard,Vertical Research。

  • Robert Stallard - Analyst

    Robert Stallard - Analyst

  • Thanks so much. Good morning. Just want to follow up on slide 5, and that spare parts delinquency chart you've got in there. Is that continued march higher in delinquencies just due to continued demand exciting supply chain strain. And how long do you think it will take to get that back down to a more reasonable number?

    非常感謝。早安。我想追問一下第 5 張投影片,以及你們在其中放的備品逾期(delinquency)圖表。逾期持續攀升是否只是因為需求持續超過供應、使供應鏈承壓。你們認為要多久才能把它降回較合理的水準?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, it is despite the progress we've talked about a few times now this morning, not only with inputs, but output, just a function of demand outstripping supply. We highlight delinquency simply to make sure investors understand that, that dynamic is in play here. Operationally, it is a number we are not proud of, right? Because we are holding, we're failing to meet customer expectations in that regard.

    嗯,儘管我們今天早上已多次談到我們在投入端與產出端的進展,但這仍然只是需求超過供應的結果。我們強調逾期,是為了確保投資人理解這個動態確實正在發生。從營運角度來看,這個數字我們並不引以為傲,對吧?因為在這方面我們未能達到客戶的期待。

  • I think it's going to take us a while yet here to get to zero delinquency. That clearly is the goal, on-time delivery, one of our critical operational KPIs as part of FLIGHT DECK. So we're not going to be able to kind of circle that. But I think given the continued momentum we see with our suppliers and our own operations, that is something that we should deliver on in time, regardless of the demand environment.

    我認為要把逾期降到零,還需要一段時間。這顯然是目標;準時交付是 FLIGHT DECK 之下我們關鍵的營運 KPI 之一。所以我們不會迴避這件事。但我認為,考量我們從供應商以及自身營運所看到的持續動能,無論需求環境如何,這件事我們都應該能在適當時間內達成。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Douglas Harned, Bernstein.

    Douglas Harned,Bernstein。

  • Douglas Harned - Analyst

    Douglas Harned - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thank you. I wanted -- Larry, Rahul, I wanted to continue on a look at the current environment because when you look forward and see some of the challenges out there, if we see jet fuel above $200 in Asia, in Europe, there are quite a few airlines that could be in some real, under some real financial pressure.

    早安。謝謝。我想——Larry、Rahul——我想延續對當前環境的討論,因為當你往前看、看到一些外部挑戰時,如果亞洲、歐洲的航空燃油價格高於 200 美元,會有不少航空公司可能面臨相當大的財務壓力。

  • And when you look at the steps you need to take over the next year or so, how do you compare the concerns around say an airline that simply is in finance -- difficult financial straits and can't do an overhaul versus simply reductions in flying hours that could take some dollars out of LTSAs. How do you think about these different, sort of hazards out there over the next year perhaps?

    而當你們看未來一年左右需要採取的步驟時,你們如何比較這些疑慮:例如某家航空公司只是財務狀況——處於困難的財務處境、無法進行大修(overhaul),相較於只是飛行時數下降、可能使 LTSA 的收入少一些。你們如何看待未來一年左右這些不同、算是各種風險(hazards)?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, Doug, I think the scenario that we talked about earlier have us contemplating a range of possibilities given that none of us know how things are going to play out here, particularly with respect to duration in the Middle East, I don't think we've tried to tether ourselves to one scenario or another. But we have considerable backlog. We've talked about that a number of times this morning. We are mindful of the risks that we may have in the customer base. Rahul and the team have increased the work we do in that regard.

    Doug,我認為我們先前談到的情境,是讓我們在一系列可能性之間做思考,因為沒有人知道事情會如何發展,特別是中東局勢會持續多久;我不認為我們試圖把自己綁在某一個情境上。但我們有相當可觀的訂單積壓(backlog)。今天早上我們已多次談到這點。我們也留意客戶基礎中可能存在的風險。Rahul 和團隊已加強在這方面所做的工作。

  • But first and foremost, we're trying to support our customers as best we can to weather these storms as we have in past situations, be it the pandemic, be it the GFC and even situations that were of lesser impact. We are also putting our spending under greater scrutiny, continuing to invest in the future of flight, of course, continuing to invest and improve durability and lowering the cost of ownership. But given the situation, we are, I think, making sure that as a senior leadership team, we are spending in a, let's say, in a more cautious fashion today given what we know and given what we don't.

    但首要之務,我們會盡我們所能支持客戶度過這些風暴,就像過去面對各種情況一樣,無論是疫情、全球金融危機(GFC),甚至是影響較小的事件。我們也更嚴格檢視支出,當然會持續投資於未來飛行(future of flight),持續投資並提升耐久性、降低持有成本。但在目前情勢下,我認為我們作為高階領導團隊,會確保在支出上更為審慎,基於我們已知的,以及我們尚未知的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

    Scott Mikus,Melius Research。

  • Scott Mikus - Equity Analyst

    Scott Mikus - Equity Analyst

  • Morning, Larry and Rahul, I figured there'd be a lot of questions about the conflict in the Middle East. So I wanted to check in on the GE9X Boeing flagged fatigue issue with engine. So just curious if you could provide an update on that. Is there any change to the expectations you had for losses on the program this year?

    早安,Larry 和 Rahul。我想大家會問很多關於中東衝突的問題。所以我想確認一下 GE9X 引擎在波音那邊標示(flagged)的疲勞問題。想請問你們能否提供最新進度。今年對該專案損失(losses)的預期,有沒有任何變化?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • No change on schedule, no change on losses. I just start Scott, to reiterate that we're thrilled to be the sole source partner on the 777X. We've got over 1,000 engines now on order and customers want the engines, they want the airplanes. What we've shared with folks is that we saw back in January, a durability issue with the Mid Seal. Remind everybody, this is on an engine that was certified back in September of 2020.

    時程沒有變化,損失沒有變化。Scott,我先重申,我們很高興能成為 777X 的唯一來源合作夥伴(sole source partner)。目前已有超過 1,000 具引擎訂單,客戶想要引擎,也想要飛機。我們先前與大家分享的是,我們在 1 月看到中封(Mid Seal)的耐久性問題。提醒大家,這是一款在 2020 年 9 月就已取得認證的引擎。

  • The crack that we uncovered during a shop visit, which is part of a flight test engine is something we've seen before. We think we are at root cause, and we're finalizing the modification as we speak and we've been fully transparent with Boeing and the FAA every step of the way. So I think as Boeing has said, we believe we're on track with the certification plan that has been communicated to customers. No change to the schedule.

    我們在一次進廠維修中發現的裂紋,屬於一具飛行測試引擎的一部分;這種情況我們以前也見過。我們認為已找到根本原因,目前正同步完成改裝(modification),並且在每一步都對波音與 FAA 完全透明。因此我想,正如波音所說,我們相信我們仍符合已向客戶溝通的認證計畫時程。時程沒有變化。

  • And of note, the 777X flight test program continues, right? It's ongoing. With respect to deliveries, we had deliveries in the first quarter, currently we're continuing to build up an assembly to the point of the mid seal. We're modifying the tooling and ramping some suppliers for the modified part. So we'll end up having deliveries that will end up more second half weighted. But I think at this juncture, no reason to believe the full year will be any different than what we've communicated.

    另外值得注意的是,777X 的飛行測試計畫仍在持續進行,對吧?目前仍在進行中。就交付而言,我們在第一季已有交付;目前我們正持續把組裝推進到中段密封(mid seal)的階段。我們正在修改工裝,並讓部分供應商針對修改後的零件進行產能爬坡。因此,交付將會更偏向下半年。但我認為在此時點,沒有理由相信全年表現會與我們已對外溝通的內容有所不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

    Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

  • Myles Walton - Analyst

    Myles Walton - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good morning. I was hoping to switch gear a little bit on aeroderivatives off-topic question, but you had a disclosure that had a restatement and moved aeroderivativesequipment from your CES segment to your DPT segment. And the company, in my eye was you had about 94 deliveries of aeroderivatives last year to your customers, but the pricing on those looked fairly benign relative to the potential for where pricing could be given the backdrop for power. So can you talk about what the strategy is for error derivatives and what the upside opportunity could be there for repricing and volume?

    謝謝。早安。我想稍微換個話題,問一個與航改型(aeroderivatives)相關、但有點離題的問題:你們有一項揭露提到重編(restatement),並將航改型設備(aeroderivatives equipment)從你們的 CES 部門移到 DPT 部門。以我看,你們去年大約向客戶交付了 94 台航改型產品,但在電力市場背景之下,這些產品的定價看起來相對溫和,低於可能達到的定價水準。所以你能談談航改型的策略是什麼,以及在重新定價與出貨量方面,可能有哪些上行機會嗎?

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. So, Miles, on aero derivatives, as you know, we provide the engine. And then our partners in the JV, they take the product to market. They do the system integration, add some controls. There's work done by both the parties. But I think what you saw in our disclosure is basically the fact that we are burning the pre-spin backlog. That was backlog that we had sold when we were part of one company that had certain different agreements.

    好的。所以,Myles,關於航改型,如你所知,我們提供的是引擎。接著我們在合資企業(JV)的合作夥伴會把產品推向市場。他們負責系統整合,並加上一些控制系統。雙方都會投入一些工作。但我想你在我們揭露中看到的,基本上是我們正在消化分拆前(pre-spin)的訂單積壓。那是我們在仍屬於同一家公司時、在某些不同協議下所售出的積壓訂單。

  • Off-spin, the pricing to the JV has been revised substantially. And we are kind of working our way through the old backlog. And we should transition to the order that we have won post-spin in the next, I would say, 18 to 24 months. So you see a gradual increase in pricing here over the next few months to quarters. So you'll see an improvement.

    分拆後(off-spin),我們對合資企業的定價已大幅修訂。而我們正在逐步消化舊的積壓訂單。我認為在接下來大約 18 到 24 個月內,我們會轉向分拆後所贏得的新訂單。因此,未來幾個月到幾季,你會看到定價逐步上升。所以你會看到改善。

  • But overall, I think it's a great business. It is being sold out here through 2030s. So that is -- that's one leg of this tool. And then obviously everything that you're seeing with now CFM56 getting added potentially to the power generation capacity, that gives another leg of growth to our CFM56 platform, be it through spare parts sales to third parties who are developing that product or some other form of collaboration. So I think we are exploring all those things. But overall, the aero derivative business is a really good part of the market, both with existing products that we have and potential new entrants to that market.

    但整體而言,我認為這是一門很棒的業務。目前的銷售能見度已排到 2030 年代。所以這是——這是這個工具箱中的一條成長支柱。另外,顯然你現在看到 CFM56 可能被納入發電容量,這也為我們的 CFM56 平台帶來另一條成長動能:不論是向開發該產品的第三方銷售備件,或是以其他形式合作。所以我想我們正在探索所有這些可能性。但總體來說,航改型業務在市場中是一個非常好的部分,無論是我們現有產品,或是未來可能進入該市場的新產品。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • And Myles, we moved it over as a reminder for everybody. We moved it over from CES into DPT really to give the commercial team the opportunity to focus exclusively on the airliners -- airlines and the airframers. And at the same time, there are some similarities to part of our defense engines and services business, especially in around marine applications. So there's a little bit more -- there's a better operational home for this business and the other segment. That's the sole reason for the move earlier this year.

    另外,Myles,我也提醒大家一下。我們把它從 CES 移到 DPT,主要是為了讓商用團隊能夠專注於民航客機——也就是航空公司與機身製造商(airframers)。同時,這項業務與我們部分國防引擎與服務業務之間也有一些相似性,特別是在海事應用方面。因此,這項業務在另一個部門有更——更合適的營運歸屬。這就是今年稍早調整的唯一原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Godyn, Citi.

    Citi 的 John Godyn。

  • John Godyn - Analyst

    John Godyn - Analyst

  • You guys, thanks for taking my question. If I could just come back to CES margins specifically. There's a concern out there that if this fuel shop continues retirement spike in particular, your CES margins would be at risk.

    各位,謝謝讓我提問。如果可以的話,我想回到 CES 的利潤率(margin)這個議題。市場上有個擔憂:如果這波燃油系統維修(fuel shop)的退役(retirement)高峰持續,特別是退役激增,你們的 CES 利潤率可能會面臨風險。

  • You've obviously been very thoughtful about your guidance, embedded a pretty conservative outlook for global aviation. And it doesn't seem like you think that risk is particularly likely. So I thought to just get your reaction to that to the concern on margin risk? And what positive offset to this mix effect might exist that global aviation continues to deteriorate?

    你們顯然在指引上非常審慎,並已把對全球航空的相當保守展望納入其中。而看起來你們並不認為這個風險特別可能發生。所以我想聽聽你們對這個利潤率風險擔憂的看法?以及如果全球航空持續惡化,可能有哪些正向因素可以抵銷這種產品組合(mix)影響?

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • So I think there's two parts to the question. I think for the current year, right, as you think about the margins, we baked in kind of flattish margins here for the year. Now as you think about the growth for the year, right, the $4 billion of growth that we are now expecting, keep in mind, the first quarter grew by about $2 billion and then we are expecting high teens growth here in the second quarter.

    我想這個問題有兩個部分。就今年而言,當你思考利潤率時,我們在全年假設中納入了大致持平的利潤率。再來談今年的成長:我們目前預期約 40 億美元的成長;請記得,第一季成長約 20 億美元,而我們預期第二季將有高十幾%的成長。

  • So that gets us closer to two-third or three-fourth of the growth will be in the first half of the year. So we feel good about the growth rates that we have for the year, and that should support kind of the margin expectations that we have for the business.

    因此,這讓我們更接近於:全年約三分之二或四分之三的成長會發生在上半年。所以我們對今年的成長率感到樂觀,而這也應能支撐我們對該業務的利潤率預期。

  • Now again, what's happening in the year, as we've discussed previously, is that we're getting good support from our services growth, that's dropping through at a healthy clip. And in the first quarter, service margins were actually up year-over-year. So that was a positive trend.

    再者,如同我們先前討論的,今年正在發生的是:我們的服務業務成長提供了良好支撐,且以健康的速度反映到獲利上。而在第一季,服務利潤率其實是年增的。所以那是一個正向趨勢。

  • Now we're not baking that in for the full year. Full year, we're expecting service margins to be flat. But good start to the year. And that positive drop-through from the services is getting offset by the OE growth that we saw. You saw that in the first quarter for full year, we're expecting LEAP deliveries to be up 15%. And while both spare engines and installed engines are going to be up for the year, the growth is primarily going to be driven by installed engines here for the year. And then we have 9X shipments. So that kind of -- if you put all that together, we expect kind of flattish margins for the year for CES.

    不過我們並沒有把這個趨勢直接納入全年假設。就全年而言,我們預期服務利潤率將持平。但今年開局不錯。而服務帶來的正向獲利落地(drop-through)被我們看到的 OE(原廠設備)成長所抵銷。你在第一季已看到這點;就全年而言,我們預期 LEAP 交付量將成長 15%。雖然備用引擎與裝機引擎全年都會成長,但今年的成長主要將由裝機引擎所驅動。此外我們還有 9X 出貨。所以把這些因素綜合起來,我們預期 CES 全年利潤率大致持平。

  • Now as you go outside the year, John, we spoke about the LEAP margin trajectory earlier to Scott's question, we expect LEAP margins to approach overall CES levels of service profitability here in the next couple of years. 9X losses should also peak by the time we get to 2028, just given that we're driving a 50% reduction in 9X cost. So LEAP margins improving, 9X headwinds kind of peaking in '28. And as we look beyond that, that is when we expect both accelerated profit and margin expansion in the business.

    至於今年以外的期間,John,我們先前在回應 Scott 的問題時談過 LEAP 的利潤率軌跡:我們預期在未來幾年內,LEAP 利潤率將接近 CES 整體的服務獲利水準。9X 的虧損也應在 2028 年前後達到高峰,因為我們正推動 9X 成本降低 50%。因此,LEAP 利潤率改善、9X 的逆風在 2028 年左右見頂。而再往後看,我們預期屆時業務將出現更快的獲利成長與利潤率擴張。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gavin Parsons, UBS.

    UBS 的 Gavin Parsons。

  • Joel Santos - Analyst

    Joel Santos - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks, guys. This is Joel Santos filling in for Gavin Parsons. Thanks for taking my question. Moving to Defense, strong results in 1Q and solid margins, stronger order environment. As we look through the rest of '26, how should we think about sustainability of growth margins in the segment?

    早安。謝謝各位。我是 Joel Santos,代替 Gavin Parsons。謝謝讓我提問。轉到國防業務:第一季表現強勁、利潤率穩健,接單環境也更強。展望 2026 年剩餘時間,我們應如何看待該部門成長與利潤率的可持續性?

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • So for DPT, again, saw our revenue growth in the first quarter. We're expecting high teens revenue growth for the first quarter. And overall, if you look at the results for the first quarter, they keep us at pace for what we've guided for the full year, both on year-over-year profit growth and the absolute dollars of profit that we delivered in the first quarter.

    就 DPT 而言,同樣地,我們在第一季看到了營收成長。我們預期第一季營收將有高十幾%的成長。整體來看,第一季的結果讓我們維持在全年指引的節奏上,無論是年對年獲利成長,或是第一季所交付的絕對獲利金額。

  • Margins were a little bit light in the first quarter, largely because equipment grew more than the aftermarket, but that mix. But I think overall, we're kind of on track as we think about the year. So we're going to drive strong output. The productivity is going to get better. And the mix should also improve as we go through the year.

    第一季的利潤率稍微偏低,主要是因為設備業務的成長高於售後市場,受到產品組合影響。但整體而言,從全年角度來看,我們大致仍在既定軌道上。因此我們將推動強勁的產出。生產力會持續改善。而且隨著年度推進,產品組合也應該會改善。

  • So I feel we're really -- given the growth rates that we had in the first quarter, we feel good about the year and you took -- as we said in our prepared remarks, we do expect DPT to be at the higher end of the guidance that we previously committed just given the growth rates that we are seeing in the first quarter and the drop-through expected from that.

    所以我覺得我們確實——考量第一季的成長率表現,我們對全年感覺良好;而且如同我們在事先準備的講稿中所說,鑑於第一季所看到的成長率以及預期的落底轉換(drop-through),我們確實預期 DPT 會落在先前承諾指引區間的高端。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Seifman, JP Morgan.

    Seth Seifman,摩根大通。

  • Seth Seifman - Analyst

    Seth Seifman - Analyst

  • Thanks very much, and good morning. In the outlook where you talk about Brent prices remaining fairly elevated through Q3, I think. In addition to Brent prices, we've seen significant increase in the spread for jet fuel. Are there special things we should be thinking about there and reasons why from a jet fuel perspective, this could carry on longer and/or be more disruptive than simply what's happening with oil prices?

    非常感謝,早安。在展望中你們提到布蘭特油價可能在第三季之前都維持相對高檔,我想是這樣。除了布蘭特油價之外,我們也看到航空燃油的價差大幅擴大。在這方面是否有什麼特別需要考量的事項?以及從航空燃油的角度來看,為什麼這種情況可能會持續更久、和/或比單純油價上漲更具干擾性?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Seth, I don't think we're trying to be too granular in the underlying assumptions, right? I mean I think the economic realities as you've just pointed out, there. And I hope what we're taking is a conservative set of assumptions on board here between now and, let's say, Labor Day. Time will tell. But by and large, we know that between the inflation and potential scarcity in other parts of the world that we could see some near-term airline behavior shift, right, by near term, I mean the late summer, early fall, call it, the second half.

    Seth,我不認為我們會在底層假設上做得太過細緻,對吧?我的意思是,我想你剛才指出的那些經濟現實確實存在。而我希望我們在此採用的是一組保守的假設,涵蓋從現在到(比方說)勞動節這段期間。時間會證明一切。但整體而言,我們知道在通膨以及世界其他地區可能出現的供給稀缺之下,短期內可能會看到航空公司行為出現一些變化;我說的短期是指夏末、初秋,也就是下半年。

  • But we're also assuming that by the end of the summer, we're on our way back to more normal conditions. And given what we've seen before, we may have a lag in the aftermarket on the commercial side of the business from what's happening currently. But then we tend to have a spring back, which is why we've kind of alluded to some of our historic reference points in that regard. That demand tends to get pushed out as opposed to going missing indefinitely.

    但我們也假設到夏末時,我們正朝著較正常的狀況回歸。而且根據過往經驗,商用業務的售後市場可能會相對於目前發生的情況出現一些滯後。但之後通常會反彈,這也是為什麼我們在這方面提到一些歷史參考點。需求往往是被延後,而不是無限期地消失。

  • Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

    Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

  • Liz, we have time for one more question.

    Liz,我們還有時間再問一題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

    Gautam Khanna,TD Cowen。

  • Gautam Khanna - Analyst

    Gautam Khanna - Analyst

  • Hey, thank you. I had actually two questions. But the first one, just on supply chain, you mentioned delinquencies and the like. But if you could just characterize how material improved sequentially and where -- and maybe just an update you've given in the past on how many suppliers and where the pinch points are strongest?

    嗨,謝謝。我其實有兩個問題。第一個是關於供應鏈,你們提到逾期交付之類的情況。但你們能否描述一下,按季來看改善的幅度有多大?以及——也許更新一下你們過去提過的:目前大概有多少供應商受影響、以及哪些環節的瓶頸最嚴重?

  • And then just secondly, I was wondering on the company's aftermarket exposure to kind of low-cost carriers or business models in the airline industry that might be more affected by of the top oil environment? Maybe if you can rate on that.

    第二個問題是,我想了解公司售後市場對於低成本航空公司、或航空業中可能更容易受到高油價環境影響的商業模式之曝險程度。也許你可以就此做個評估。

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Maybe I'll take the supply chain question. I'll let Rahul speak to certain customer segment risk. I think from an input perspective. We mentioned earlier that we've seen double-digit increases again sequentially and year-over-year from some of the critical suppliers.

    好的。也許我先回答供應鏈的問題。我會讓 Rahul 談談特定客戶區隔的風險。我想就投入端而言,我們先前提到,我們再次看到部分關鍵供應商的供應量按季與年增都出現兩位數的提升。

  • I think we've said all along, we're going to be the problem solvers, not the finger pointers. And I just am really pleased with the way we've had suppliers across the board engage with us. It's been a journey at every point, but I think we're just simply getting better. We're more transparent, we're more trustworthy with each other. And in turn, we've just allowed our best people to go -- to again, but to go to where the constraints, the bottlenecks exist and sold them.

    我想我們一直以來都說,我們要當問題解決者,而不是指責他人的人。而我對於各家供應商全面與我們投入合作的方式感到非常欣慰。每個階段都是一段旅程,但我認為我們就是在持續變得更好。我們更透明、彼此更值得信賴。而相應地,我們也讓最優秀的人才去——再次地,去到限制與瓶頸所在之處並加以解決。

  • Again, there's no way we take engine output up 43%, right, without that sort of support from the customer base. Likewise, commercial services up 39%. There's no way we're able to get that volume out the door to serve our airline customers without really good progress using FLIGHT DECK with the supply base. That is not to suggest that we're all clear between now and 2030. There's still a lot of work because we're going to have to do more every year. But what a wonderful challenge to have, and again, kudos to our team, kudos to the supply base, we're engaging and supporting us with our ultimate customers in mind, particularly here in the first part of 2026.

    再說一次,如果沒有客戶端的這種支持,我們不可能把引擎產出提高 43%,對吧?同樣地,商用服務成長 39%。如果沒有透過 FLIGHT DECK 與供應體系取得非常好的進展,我們不可能把那樣的量交付出去以服務航空公司客戶。這並不是說從現在到 2030 年我們就一路暢通無阻。仍然有很多工作要做,因為我們每一年都必須做得更多。但這是個很棒的挑戰;再次向我們的團隊致敬,也向供應體系致敬——我們正以最終客戶為念來投入合作並支持我們,尤其是在 2026 年的前半段。

  • Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Rahul Ghai - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And Gautam, to your second question, let me if I step back here and just look at the environment that we've seen. We spoken to the order trends here through the start of the conflict. There's nothing in the environment here that's giving us falls, right? The customers are eager to get back in the air. Yes, they're experiencing temporary disruptions just given everything that's going on directly in the Middle East, a little bit from lack of availability of fuel prices, but everybody is super eager to get back and support the flying public. So that's what we are seeing right now.

    Gautam,關於你的第二個問題,讓我先退一步,看看我們所看到的環境。我們已談到衝突爆發以來的訂單趨勢。目前的環境沒有任何跡象讓我們感到擔憂,對吧?客戶都很渴望重返天空。是的,鑑於中東地區正在發生的一切,他們正經歷一些暫時性的干擾;另外燃油供應可得性與價格也有些影響,但大家都非常渴望回到空中並支持旅客出行。這就是我們目前所看到的情況。

  • We spoke to the strength that we're expecting here in the second quarter. And as we think about the full year, had it not been for the environment that we're in, and I'm repeating something that Larry said earlier, we would have raised our guidance. Because the first quarter was about $300 million better than what we had expected at the beginning of the year.

    我們也談到第二季預期的強勁表現。而從全年來看,如果不是因為我們所處的這個環境——我重複 Larry 先前說過的——我們本來會上調指引。因為第一季的表現比我們年初預期好約 3 億美元。

  • And then we're carrying that strength into the second quarter that the momentum is clearly carrying through, and we spoke to more sequential and year-over-year profit growth here in the second quarter with high teens services growth expected. So -- and then the second half is just about what we don't know. I think that is the question. So hopefully, as Larry said earlier, we're being conservative and cautious, prudent whatever words you want to use, I think, again, time will tell, but we feel good about the year as we sit here today.

    而且我們把這股強勢延續到第二季,動能顯然正在延續;我們也提到第二季預期將出現按季與年增的獲利成長,並預期服務業務有高十位數的成長。所以——而下半年主要就是我們不知道的部分。我想這才是問題所在。因此希望如 Larry 先前所說,我們採取的是保守、謹慎、審慎——不管你想用什麼詞——我想再次強調,時間會證明一切,但就今天此刻而言,我們對全年感覺良好。

  • And we're not seeing any disruptive behavior on part of the customers. We're not seeing risk that we didn't have maybe just a couple of months back. So -- but we're monitoring the situation very, very closely, as you would expect us to. And we would give updates throughout the quarter as we learn more.

    而且我們沒有看到客戶端有任何具破壞性的行為。我們也沒有看到相較於幾個月前新增的風險。所以——但我們會如你所預期的那樣,非常、非常密切地監控情勢。而且隨著我們了解更多,我們會在整個季度期間提供更新。

  • Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

    Blaire Shoor - Director, Investor Relations

  • Larry, any final comment?

    Larry,還有最後補充嗎?

  • H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    H. Lawrence Culp - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Blaire, thank you. Just in closing, FLIGHT DECK will help us deliver what our customers value most, higher outputs, improve durability and lower cost of ownership even as we navigate the current environment. We're confident in our trajectory and our ability to deliver value for customers and shareholders. We appreciate your time today and your interest in GE Aerospace.

    Blaire,謝謝。最後總結,FLIGHT DECK 將協助我們在因應當前環境的同時,交付客戶最重視的價值:更高的產出、提升耐久性,以及更低的持有成本。我們對自身的發展軌跡以及為客戶與股東創造價值的能力充滿信心。感謝各位今天撥冗參與,也感謝各位對 GE Aerospace 的關注。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。