First Solar 公佈了 2023 年第四季度和全年的財務業績,重點介紹了創紀錄的產量、技術進步以及位於路易斯安那州的新製造工廠。
該公司報告稱,由於多種因素,淨銷售額有所增加,但毛利率有所下降。他們討論了太陽能產業的挑戰,強調了國內製造業,並概述了他們的成長和投資主題。
該公司致力於保持穩定的定價,應對市場挑戰,並在年底前實現 1:1 的訂單出貨比。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to First Solar's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings and 2024 Financial Guidance Call. This call is being webcast live on the Investors section of First Solar's website at investor.firstsolar.com. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.
大家下午好,歡迎參加 First Solar 2023 年第四季和全年收益以及 2024 年財務指導電話會議。本次電話會議將在 First Solar 網站(網址為 investor.firstsolar.com)的投資人專區進行網路直播。 (操作員指示)提醒一下,今天的通話正在錄音。
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Richard Romero from First Solar Investor Relations. Richard, you may begin.
現在我想將電話轉給第一太陽能投資者關係部的理查德·羅梅羅先生。理查德,你可以開始啦。
Richard Romero
Richard Romero
Hi. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. Today, the company issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results as well as its guidance for 2024. A copy of the press release and associated presentation are available on First Solar's website at investor.firstsolar.com.
你好。下午好,感謝您加入我們。今天,該公司發布了一份新聞稿,宣布了其 2023 年第四季度和全年財務業績以及 2024 年指引。
With me today are Mark Widmar, Chief Executive Officer; and Alex Bradley, Chief Financial Officer. Mark will provide a business update and outlook for 2024. Alex will discuss our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023 as well as our financial guidance for 2024. Following their remarks, we will open the call for questions.
今天與我在一起的有執行長馬克‧威德瑪 (Mark Widmar);以及財務長亞歷克斯·布拉德利(Alex Bradley)。馬克將提供 2024 年的業務更新和展望。
Please note, this call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statements contained in today's press release and presentation for a more complete description.
請注意,本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,其中涉及風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中包含的安全港聲明,以獲得更完整的描述。
It is now my pleasure to introduce Mark Widmar, Chief Executive Officer.
現在我很高興介紹執行長馬克威德瑪 (Mark Widmar)。
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Thank you, Richard. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today. I would like to start by noting that this month marks the 25th anniversary of First Solar's founding, making us one of the oldest and most experienced solar module manufacturers in the world. This is a remarkable milestone in a journey that has positioned us as the Western Hemisphere's leading solar module technology and manufacturing company.
謝謝你,理查。下午好,感謝您今天加入我們。首先我想指出的是,本月是 First Solar 成立 25 週年,這使我們成為世界上歷史最悠久、經驗最豐富的太陽能電池組件製造商之一。這是一個非凡的里程碑,使我們成為西半球領先的太陽能電池組件技術和製造公司。
While we're not the only American solar manufacturer to come into existence at the end of the last century, we are the only one at scale to remain today. However, this is not simply a story of survival, but one about the value of long-term strategic decision-making underpinned by a differentiated technology and business model, driving value creation for our shareholders and our partners. Ours is a story of innovation, values, competitiveness and perseverance, and we are proud of our work towards leading the world's sustainable energy future.
雖然我們不是上世紀末唯一一家美國太陽能製造商,但我們卻是唯一一家至今仍保持規模的製造商。然而,這不僅僅是一個生存的故事,而是一個關於以差異化技術和商業模式為基礎的長期策略決策的價值的故事,為我們的股東和合作夥伴創造價值。我們的故事充滿創新、價值觀、競爭力和毅力,我們為引領世界永續能源未來的工作感到自豪。
As our journey continues, few years have been as consequential to our long-term growth strategy as 2023. Over the past year, we expanded manufacturing capacity, mobilized at our latest announced facility in Louisiana, produced and shipped a record volume of modules, expanded our contracted backlog to historic levels and increased R&D investment and continued to evolve our technology and product road map.
隨著我們旅程的繼續,很少有哪一年像 2023 年這樣對我們的長期增長戰略如此重要。
Let's review the key accomplishments in 2023, beginning with Slide 3. From a commercial perspective, 2023 continued the momentum established in 2022 as long-term multiyear procurement continued to drive demand. We added 10 new customers and secured 28.3 gigawatts of net bookings at a base ASP of over $0.30 per watt. Despite industry macro challenges, such as global oversupply and pricing volatility, we continued to see strong mid- to long-term demand, especially in the United States, as shown with 2.3 gigawatts of net bookings since the previous earnings call at an ASP of $0.318 per watt excluding adjusters or $0.334 per watt, assuming the realization of our technology adders. Our total contracted backlog now stands at 80.1 gigawatts with orders stretching to the end of this decade.
讓我們回顧一下 2023 年的主要成就,從投影片 3 開始。我們增加了 10 個新客戶,並以每瓦超過 0.30 美元的基本平均銷售價格獲得了 28.3 千兆瓦的淨預訂量。儘管產業面臨全球供應過剩和價格波動等宏觀挑戰,但我們仍然看到強勁的中長期需求,尤其是在美國,自上次收益電話會議以來,淨預訂量為 2.3 千兆瓦,平均售價為每瓦 0.318 美元(不包括調整器)或每瓦 0.334 美元(假設實現我們的技術附加價值)。我們目前的合約積壓訂單總量為 80.1 吉瓦,訂單延續到本世紀末。
While Alex will provide a comprehensive overview of our 2023 financial results, our full year EPS came in at $7.74, which is above the midpoint of our initial and Q3 2023 guidance ranges and included the impact of the sale of our Section 45X tax credits and the impairment of our investment in CubicPV. These items, neither of which were included in our Q3 2023 guidance ranges, adversely impacted our full year EPS by approximately $0.48 per watt (sic) [per share].
雖然 Alex 將全面概述我們 2023 年的財務業績,但我們的全年每股收益為 7.74 美元,高於我們初始和 2023 年第三季度指導範圍的中點,並包括出售第 45X 條稅收抵免的影響以及我們對 CubicPV 的投資減值。這些項目均未包含在我們的 2023 年第三季指引範圍內,對我們的全年每股盈餘產生了約 0.48 美元/瓦(原文如此)[每股] 的不利影響。
From a manufacturing perspective, we produced a record 12.1 gigawatts in 2023, representing a 33% increase in production over 2022. As a result, we have now surpassed 60 gigawatts of cumulative production since we first began commercial manufacturing in 2002. This growth was driven by manufacturing excellence at our Series 6 factories, which produced 9.7 gigawatts in 2023, an increase of 600 megawatts compared to 2022, and the successful ramping of our new Series 7 factories in the U.S. and India, which combined to produce more than 2.4 gigawatts in 2023. Our top production bin for Series 6 was 475 watts, and our top production bin for Series 7 was 545 watts.
從製造角度來看,我們在 2023 年生產了創紀錄的 12.1 千兆瓦,比 2022 年產量增長 33%。 因此,自 2002 年首次開始商業製造以來,我們的累計產量現已超過 60 千兆瓦。 0 兆瓦,以及我們在美國和印度的新第 7 系列工廠的成功增產,這兩個工廠在 2023 年合計生產了超過 2.4 千兆瓦。
We remain committed to progressing our technology and product road map in 2023, having recently achieved a 22.6% world-record CadTel research conversion efficiency based on our CuRe technology and launched the first bifacial, thin-film solar panel. In addition, we successfully completed our manufacturing readiness trial under our CuRe program in the fourth quarter of 2023 and expect to begin manufacturing modules powered by this technology at our lead line in Perrysburg in the fourth quarter of 2024.
我們將繼續致力於在 2023 年推進我們的技術和產品路線圖,最近我們基於 CuRe 技術實現了 22.6% 的世界紀錄 CadTel 研究轉換效率,並推出了第一款雙面薄膜太陽能板。此外,我們在 2023 年第四季成功完成了 CuRe 計畫下的製造準備試驗,並預計將於 2024 年第四季在佩里斯堡的生產線上開始生產採用該技術的模組。
It's vital that our supply chain and logistics operations keep pace with our manufacturing expansion plans, and we've made meaningful progress on this front in 2023. Key achievements including entering into agreements with Vitro to supply American-made front and back glass for our manufacturing operations in the U.S. and with OMCO and Ice Industries to supply steel back rails for our facilities in Alabama and Louisiana. We also signed agreements with Saint-Gobain to supply the back glass for our modules in India.
至關重要的是,我們的供應鏈和物流運營要與我們的製造擴張計劃保持同步,我們在 2023 年在這方面取得了有意義的進展。我們也與聖戈班簽署了協議,為我們在印度的模組供應背玻璃。
Regarding growth, we exited the year with 16.6 gigawatts of nameplate capacity. This marks an increase of 6.8 gigawatts from 2022 driven by the commencement of operations at our Series 6 factories in Ohio and Indiana. In -- excuse me, in India. In 2023, we announced a $1.1 billion investment in a new manufacturing facility in Louisiana, which is expected to add 3.5 gigawatts to our nameplate capacity in 2026.
至於成長方面,今年我們的額定容量達到了16.6千兆瓦。這標誌著由於我們位於俄亥俄州和印第安納州的 6 系列工廠開始運營,發電量將比 2022 年增加 6.8 千兆瓦。在——對不起,在印度。 2023 年,我們宣布投資 11 億美元在路易斯安那州新建製造工廠,預計 2026 年將使我們的額定產能增加 3.5 千兆瓦。
When combined with our Alabama facility and our Ohio manufacturing footprint expansions, both of which are in progress, we expect 2026 year-end nameplate capacity of approximately 14 gigawatts domestically with another 11 gigawatts internationally for a global nameplate capacity of approximately 25 gigawatts.
結合我們正在進行的阿拉巴馬州工廠和俄亥俄州製造基地擴建工程,我們預計 2026 年底國內額定容量約為 14 吉瓦,國際額定容量約為 11 吉瓦,全球額定容量約為 25 吉瓦。
We also continue to invest in our technology with our R&D innovation center and our perovskite development line, both under construction in Ohio. These facilities are expected to commence operations in the first half and second half of 2024, respectively. Additionally, in 2023, we acquired Evolar, a European leader in perovskite technology, and has since transitioned its laboratory in Sweden to become our first R&D facility in Europe. These and other investments in R&D allow us to accelerate the cycles of innovation we believe are necessary to extend our leadership in thin-film solar technology.
我們也繼續投資我們的技術,我們的研發創新中心和鈣鈦礦開發線都在俄亥俄州建設中。這些設施預計將分別於 2024 年上半年和下半年開始營運。此外,2023 年,我們收購了歐洲鈣鈦礦技術領導者 Evolar,並將其位於瑞典的實驗室轉變為我們在歐洲的第一個研發機構。這些以及其他對研發的投資使我們能夠加速創新週期,我們認為這對於擴大我們在薄膜太陽能技術領域的領先地位是必要的。
Turning to Slide 4. As of year-end 2022, our contracted backlog totaled 61.4 gigawatts with an aggregate value of $17.7 billion or approximately $0.288 per watt. Through year-end 2023, we entered into an additional 28.3 gigawatts of contracts at an average ASP of $0.305 per watt. After accounting for sales of 11.4 gigawatts in 2023, we began 2024 with a total contracted backlog of 78.3 gigawatts with an aggregate value of $23.3 billion or approximately $0.298 per watt.
轉到投影片 4。到 2023 年底,我們又簽訂了 28.3 千兆瓦的合同,平均售價為每瓦 0.305 美元。在計算了 2023 年 11.4 吉瓦的銷售額之後,到 2024 年,我們的合約積壓總量為 78.3 吉瓦,總價值為 233 億美元,約合每瓦 0.298 美元。
Since the end of 2023, we have entered into an additional 1.8 gigawatts of contracts, resulting in a total backlog of 80.1 gigawatts. These most recent bookings have an average ASP of $0.319 per watt pre-adjuster or $0.339 per watt if contract technology adjusters are realized. Additionally, we have received security against 206 megawatts of previously signed contracts in India, which now move these volumes from contracted subject to conditions precedent grouping within our future opportunities pipeline to our bookings backlog. A substantial portion of our overall backlog includes the opportunity to increase base ASPs through the application of adjusters, if we're able to realize achievements within our current technology road map as to the expected timing for delivery of the product.
自 2023 年底以來,我們又簽訂了 1.8 吉瓦的額外合同,總積壓訂單量達到 80.1 吉瓦。這些最新的預訂的平均 ASP 為每瓦 0.319 美元(預調節器)或每瓦 0.339 美元(如果合約技術調節器實現)。此外,我們已獲得印度先前簽署的 206 兆瓦合約的擔保,這些擔保現在將這些發電量從「有先決條件的合約」轉移到「未來機會管道」內的「預訂積壓」。如果我們能夠在目前技術路線圖內實現預期的產品交付時間,那麼我們整體積壓訂單的很大一部分就包括透過應用調整器來增加基本 ASP 的機會。
As of the end of the fourth quarter, we had approximately 39.1 gigawatts of contracted volume with these adjusters, which if fully utilized -- realized, excuse me, could result in additional revenue of approximately $0.5 billion or approximately $0.01 per watt, the majority of which would be realized between 2025 and 2027. This amount does not include potential adjustments, which are generally applicable to total contracted backlog, both related to the ultimate module bin delivered to the customer, which may adjust the ASP under the sales contract upward or downward, or for increases in sales freight or applicable aluminum or steel commodity price changes.
截至第四季度末,我們與這些調整商簽訂的合約量約為 39.1 千兆瓦,如果充分利用 - 對不起,實現了,可以帶來約 5 億美元的額外收入或約 0.01 美元/瓦,其中大部分將在 2025 年至 2027 年之間實現。運費增加或適用的鋁或鋼商品價格變化而調整。
I'll now turn the call over to Alex, who will discuss our Q4 and full year 2023 results.
現在我將電話轉給 Alex,他將討論我們的 2023 年第四季和全年業績。
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Thanks, Mark. Starting on Slide 5, I'll cover our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023. Net sales in the fourth quarter were $1.2 billion, an increase of $0.4 million compared to the prior quarter. The increase in net sales was driven by higher volumes sold, including higher net sales of Series 7 modules that we continue to ramp production at our new facility in Ohio.
謝謝,馬克。從第 5 張投影片開始,我將介紹我們 2023 年第四季和全年的財務表現。淨銷售額的成長主要得益於銷售量的增加,其中包括 7 系列模組淨銷售額的增加以及我們繼續在俄亥俄州的新工廠提高產量。
For the full year 2023, net sales were $3.3 billion compared to $2.6 billion in the prior year. This increase was driven by $0.9 billion of higher module net sales resulting from increases in both volumes sold and ASPs, which was partially offset by $0.2 billion of lower revenue from our residual business operations primarily related to the sale of our Luz del Norte project in the prior year.
2023 年全年淨銷售額為 33 億美元,而前一年為 26 億美元。這一增長主要得益於模組淨銷售額增長 9 億美元,而模組淨銷售額增長是由於銷售量和平均售價雙雙增加,但被主要與上年出售 Luz del Norte 項目有關的剩餘業務運營收入下降 2 億美元所部分抵消。
Based on our vertically integrated differentiated manufacturing model and the current form factor of our modules, we expect to qualify for Section 45X tax credits of approximately $0.17 per watt to each module produced in the U.S. and sold to a third party, which is recognized as a reduction to cost of sales in the period of sale.
根據我們垂直整合的差異化製造模式和我們模組的當前外形尺寸,我們預計在美國生產並出售給第三方的每個模組將有資格獲得第 45X 條稅收抵免,即每瓦約 0.17 美元,這將被確認為銷售期間銷售成本的降低。
In December, we entered into an agreement with Fiserv, which resulted in the sale of approximately $687 million of 2023 Section 45X tax credits for expected aggregate cash proceeds of $659 million. We received an initial $336 million of cash proceeds in January with the remainder expected by the end of April 2024. In connection with this transaction, we recognized a valuation adjustment of $28 million within cost of sales during the fourth quarter to reduce the carrying value of the credit to the amount expected to be received from the transaction.
12 月,我們與 Fiserv 達成協議,出售約 6.87 億美元的 2023 年第 45X 條稅收抵免,預計總現金收益為 6.59 億美元。我們在一月份收到了 3.36 億美元的初始現金收益,剩餘部分預計將在 2024 年 4 月底到賬。
For the fourth quarter and full year 2023, we recognized $229 million and $659 million, respectively, of Section 45X tax credits, including the effects of the aforementioned adjustment.
2023 年第四季和全年,我們分別確認了 2.29 億美元和 6.59 億美元的第 45X 條稅收抵免,其中包括上述調整的影響。
Gross margin was 43% in the fourth quarter compared to 47% in the third quarter. This decrease was primarily attributable to the adjustment associated with the sale of our Section 45X tax credits; a higher mix of modules sold from our non-U.S. factories, which do not qualify for Section 45X tax credits; and the write-off of certain legacy production materials, partially offset by continued module cost reductions.
第四季毛利率為43%,第三季為47%。這一下降主要歸因於與出售第 45X 條稅收抵免相關的調整;我們從美國以外的工廠銷售的模組組合更高,這些模組不符合第 45X 條稅收抵免的資格;以及某些遺留生產材料的註銷,但模組成本的持續降低部分抵消了這種影響。
For the full year 2023, gross margin was 39% compared to 3% in the prior year. The increase in gross margin was primarily due to the recognition of Section 45X tax credits; a decrease in sales freights, demurrage and detention charges; an increase in module ASPs; continued module cost reductions; and the net impairment and sale of our Luz del Norte project in the prior year, partially offset by increased underutilization costs charged in the period in which they are incurred associated with the factory ramp in 2023.
2023 年全年毛利率為 39%,而前一年為 3%。毛利率的增加主要歸因於第45X條稅收抵免的確認;銷售運費、滯期費和滯留費減少;模組 ASP 的增加;持續降低模組成本;以及我們上一年 Luz del Norte 專案的淨減損和出售,部分被 2023 年工廠產能提升期間收取的增加的未充分利用成本所抵消。
The ramp charges were $16 million in the fourth quarter compared to $25 million in the third quarter. Our ramp costs for the full year 2023 were $89 million compared to $7 million in the prior quarter. Our 2023 ramp costs were primarily attributable to our new Series 7 factories in Ohio and India.
第四季的坡道費用為 1,600 萬美元,而第三季的坡道費用為 2,500 萬美元。我們 2023 年全年的坡道成本為 8,900 萬美元,而上一季為 700 萬美元。我們 2023 年的產能提升成本主要歸因於我們位於俄亥俄州和印度的新 7 系列工廠。
SG&A, R&D and production start-up expenses totaled $111 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of approximately $7 million relative to the prior quarter. This increase was primarily driven by fees associated with the sale of our 2023 Section 45X tax credits and an increase in incentive compensation partially offset by lower-than-expected credit losses resulting from improved collections of our accounts receivable.
第四季銷售、一般及行政費用、研發及生產啟動費用總計 1.11 億美元,較上一季增加約 700 萬美元。這一增長主要得益於出售我們的 2023 年第 45X 條稅收抵免相關的費用以及激勵性薪酬的增加,但由於應收賬款回收改善導致的信貸損失低於預期,部分抵消了這一增長。
For the full year 2023, SG&A, R&D and production start-up expenses, along with litigation losses, were $450 million compared to $351 million in the prior year. As a reminder, we recorded a litigation loss of $36 million during the second quarter related to our legacy systems business. The remaining operating expense increase of $63 million was primarily attributable to higher employee compensation due to additional head count, higher professional fees associated with litigation, the implementation of a new enterprise resource planning system, the sale of our 2023 Section 45X tax credits and higher material and module testing costs for our research and development activities.
2023 年全年,銷售、一般及行政費用、研發和生產啟動費用以及訴訟損失為 4.5 億美元,而上年為 3.51 億美元。提醒一下,第二季我們記錄了與遺留系統業務相關的 3,600 萬美元的訴訟損失。剩餘的 6,300 萬美元營運費用增加主要歸因於由於員工人數增加導致的員工薪酬增加、與訴訟相關的專業費用增加、新企業資源規劃系統的實施、2023 年第 45X 條稅收抵免的出售以及我們研發活動的材料和模組測試成本增加。
Our fourth quarter operating income was $398 million, which included depreciation, amortization and accretion of $90 million; ramp costs of $16 million; costs associated with the sale of our 2023 Section 45X tax credits of $35 million; legacy systems-related income of $7 million; production start-up expense of $10 million; and share-based compensation expense of $11 million.
我們第四季的營業收入為 3.98 億美元,其中包括 9,000 萬美元的折舊、攤提和累積;坡道成本1600萬美元;出售 2023 年第 45X 條稅收抵免相關的成本為 3,500 萬美元;與遺留系統相關的收入為 700 萬美元;生產啟動費用1000萬美元;及股權激勵費用1100萬美元。
Our full year 2023 operating income was $857 million, which includes depreciation, amortization and accretion of $308 million; ramp costs of $89 million; costs associated with the sale of our 2023 Section 45X tax credits of $35 million; legacy systems business-related costs of $7 million; production start-up expense of $65 million; and share-based compensation expense of $34 million.
我們 2023 年全年營業收入為 8.57 億美元,其中包括 3.08 億美元的折舊、攤提和增值;坡道成本為 8,900 萬美元;出售 2023 年第 45X 條稅收抵免相關的成本為 3,500 萬美元;與遺留系統業務相關的成本為 700 萬美元;生產啟動費用為 6,500 萬美元;以及3400萬美元的股權激勵費用。
In the fourth quarter, we took a $23 million impairment associated with a strategic investment in CubicPV. Our investment thesis is anchored to their continuing development work on perovskites and tandem technologies. Outside of our investment thesis, they had planned to develop domestic silicon wafer manufacturing capacity. This plan was recently abandoned due to surge in construction costs and declining wafer prices, which triggered an impairment.
第四季度,我們計入了與對 CubicPV 的策略性投資相關的 2,300 萬美元減損損失。我們的投資理念是基於他們在鈣鈦礦和串聯技術方面的持續開發工作。除了我們的投資論文之外,他們還計劃發展國內矽片製造能力。該計劃最近因建設成本飆升和晶圓價格下跌而引發減值而被放棄。
Interest income in the fourth quarter was $24 million, roughly the same as the prior quarter. And interest income for the full year 2023 was $98 million, an increase of $64 million compared to the prior year, primarily due to higher interest rates on our cash and marketable securities. We recorded an income tax expense of $27 million in the fourth quarter and $61 million for the full year.
第四季利息收入為2400萬美元,與上一季大致相同。 2023 年全年利息收入為 9,800 萬美元,比上年增加 6,400 萬美元,主要由於我們的現金和有價證券的利率上升。我們第四季的所得稅費用為 2,700 萬美元,全年的所得稅費用為 6,100 萬美元。
Fourth quarter income per diluted share was $3.25 compared to $2.50 in the prior quarter. For the full year 2023, income per diluted share was $7.74 compared to a loss per diluted share of $0.41 in 2022.
第四季每股攤薄收益為 3.25 美元,上一季為 2.50 美元。 2023 年全年每股攤薄收益為 7.74 美元,而 2022 年每股攤薄虧損為 0.41 美元。
Let's turn to Slide 6 to discuss select balance sheet items and summary cash flow information. The aggregate balance of our cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, restricted cash equivalents and marketable securities was $2.1 billion at the end of the year, an increase of $0.3 billion from the prior quarter and a decrease of $0.5 billion from the prior year. Our year-end net cash position, which includes the aforementioned balance less debt was $1.6 billion, an increase of $0.3 billion from the prior quarter and a decrease of $0.8 billion from the prior year. The increase in our net cash balance in the fourth quarter was primarily driven by modules segment operating cash flows, including advanced payments received from future module sales, partially offset by capital expenditures associated with our new plants under construction in Alabama, Louisiana and India. The decrease in our net cash balance for the full year 2023 was primarily due to capital expenditures partially offset by modules segment operating cash flow.
讓我們轉到投影片 6 來討論選擇資產負債表項目和匯總現金流量資訊。我們的現金、現金等價物、受限現金、受限現金等價物和有價證券的總餘額在年底為 21 億美元,比上一季增加 3 億美元,比上年減少 5 億美元。我們的年終淨現金狀況(包括上述餘額減去債務)為 16 億美元,比上一季增加 3 億美元,比上年減少 8 億美元。我們第四季淨現金餘額的增加主要得益於模組部門經營現金流,包括未來模組銷售收到的預付款,部分抵消了我們在阿拉巴馬州、路易斯安那州和印度在建新工廠相關的資本支出。 2023 年全年淨現金餘額的減少主要是由於資本支出,但被模組部門經營現金流量部分抵銷。
Cash flows from operations were $602 million in 2023 compared to $873 million in 2022. This decrease was primarily driven by higher operating expenditures in support of our ongoing manufacturing expansion and lower advanced payments received for future module sales partially offset by higher cash receipts from modules sold during the year. Capital expenditures were $347 million in the fourth quarter compared to $286 million in the third quarter. Capital expenditures were $1.4 billion in 2023 compared to $0.9 billion in 2022.
2023 年經營活動現金流為 6.02 億美元,而 2022 年為 8.73 億美元。第四季資本支出為 3.47 億美元,而第三季為 2.86 億美元。 2023 年資本支出為 14 億美元,而 2022 年為 9 億美元。
Now I'll turn the call back to Mark to provide the business and strategy update.
現在我將把電話轉回給馬克,提供業務和策略更新。
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
All right. Thank you, Alex. A word about overall market conditions in the policy environment. As we enter 2024, while we continue to operate from a position of strength, leveraging our points of differentiation and strong contracted backlog, the continuation of Chinese subsidization and dumping practices has caused a significant collapse in cell and module pricing.
好的。謝謝你,亞歷克斯。談談政策環境中的整體市場狀況。進入 2024 年,雖然我們繼續保持優勢地位,利用我們的差異化優勢和強大的合約積壓訂單,但中國持續的補貼和傾銷行為導致電池和組件價格大幅暴跌。
Last month, Meyer Burger, a European module and cell manufacturer, announced that deteriorating market conditions in Europe resulting from such practices is forcing them to prepare for shutting -- shuttering module assembly in Germany, exemplifying the challenges to the EU's stated goal of creating a self-sustaining renewable manufacturing industry.
上個月,歐洲組件和電池製造商梅耶博格宣布,此類行為導致歐洲市場狀況惡化,迫使其準備關閉位於德國的組件組裝廠,這體現了歐盟創建自給自足的可再生製造業這一既定目標所面臨的挑戰。
In India, a sudden and significant reduction in cell pricing in the nondomestic content market segment has blunted the efficacy of the country's measures to address Chinese supply chain imports, distorting market pricing in the country and disincentivizing the ability of local suppliers to help achieve India's ambition to create broad domestic manufacturing to serve its domestic market.
在印度,非國產電池市場部分的價格突然大幅下降,削弱了該國應對中國供應鏈進口問題措施的效力,扭曲了該國的市場定價,並削弱了本土供應商幫助印度實現創建廣泛國內製造業以服務國內市場的宏偉目標的能力。
And here in the U.S., notwithstanding the U.S. Department of Commerce's general determination of antidumping and countervailing duty circumvention by 4 Southeast Asia countries, the continued record level of cell and module imports from these regions poses a threat to the current administration's ambitions of scaling and securing a robust onshore solar manufacturing base.
而在美國,儘管美國商務部已認定四個東南亞國家存在規避反傾銷和反補貼稅的行為,但來自這些地區的太陽能電池和組件進口量持續創下歷史新高,對現任政府擴大和確保強勁的國內太陽能製造基地的雄心構成了威脅。
In light of the current and forecasted state of oversupply in these markets and the resulting headwinds to the ability of domestic manufacturers to scale, we call upon governments and policymakers to either reinforce the measures already enacted or move expeditiously to take action. For instance, here in the U.S., we have long taken the position that the Section 201 safeguard bifacial exemption simply opened the door for a multi-gigawatt scale crystalline silicon product to have unfettered access to the American solar market, threatening U.S. solar manufacturing.
鑑於這些市場目前和預測的供應過剩狀況,以及由此對國內製造商擴大規模能力造成的阻力,我們呼籲政府和政策制定者要么加強已經制定的措施,要么迅速採取行動。例如,在美國,我們長期以來一直認為,第 201 條保障雙面豁免只是為數千兆瓦級晶體矽產品不受限制地進入美國太陽能市場打開了大門,威脅到了美國的太陽能製造業。
Indeed, a recent report released by the U.S. International Trade Commission noted that a number of commenters cited the bifacial exclusion, along with the 2022 executive order temporarily blocking the U.S. Department of Commerce from imposing new tariffs on solar imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, is leading to increased availability of foreign-made solar panels. We therefore advocate, as the administration undergoes its current evaluation of the 201 tariffs, that it closes this market-distorting bifacial exemption, which has been exploited to eviscerate the intent of these measures to safeguard the domestic industry.
事實上,美國國際貿易委員會最近發布的一份報告指出,許多評論者指出,雙面排除政策加上 2022 年行政命令(該命令暫時阻止美國商務部對來自柬埔寨、馬來西亞、泰國和越南的太陽能進口徵收新關稅)導致外國製造的太陽能電池板的供應增加。因此,我們主張,在政府對 201 項關稅進行評估之際,取消這一扭曲市場的雙面豁免,該豁免已被用來破壞這些措施保護國內產業的意圖。
In addition, with respect to the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, which addresses the scourge of utilizing forced labor within the solar supply chain, we similarly advocate for Customs and Border Protection to utilize all of the tools in its toolbox to ensure a comprehensive enforcement strategy of law already on the books and to ensure that regardless of which port product is shipped into, the legal requirements in place are consistently enforced.
此外,關於《維吾爾族強迫勞動預防法案》,該法案針對太陽能供應鏈中使用強迫勞動的弊端,我們同樣主張海關和邊境保護局利用其工具箱中的所有工具,確保現有法律的全面執法戰略,並確保無論產品運往哪個港口,現有的法律要求都得到一致執行。
In India, while the approved list of module manufacturers (sic) [Approved List of Models and Manufacturers], or ALMM, has been effective in incentivizing domestic manufacturing investment, pauses in the application of this law and the related impacts to domestic pricing have put progress at risk. We are heartened that the ALMM waivers currently in place are expected to expire at the end of Q1 and would encourage the federal government of India to not grant such waivers in the future and to also consider expanding the ALMM equivalent requirements to cell manufacturing. These actions we believe will foster India's ambitions of reducing their dependency on the Chinese solar supply chain and, in our view, incentivize further capital investment in this country.
在印度,雖然模組製造商批准名單(原文如此)[型號和製造商批准名單](ALMM)在激勵國內製造業投資方面很有效,但該法律應用的暫停及其對國內定價的相關影響已使進展面臨風險。我們很高興看到,目前實施的 ALMM 豁免預計將在第一季末到期,並鼓勵印度聯邦政府將來不要給予此類豁免,並考慮將 ALMM 等效要求擴展到電池製造。我們相信這些措施將促進印度減少對中國太陽能供應鏈依賴的願望,並且在我們看來,也將激勵印度進一步進行資本投資。
Turning to the EU. While we are pleased with this month's recent development to establish the Net-Zero Industry Act, which will prioritize permitting and funding for technologies deemed necessary to help the EU achieve its goal of making the region climate-neutral by 2050, much work remains to be done. As we have continuously stated, investment in local manufacturing can only scale when sufficient measures are in place to ensure a long-term, consistent, level playing field. Such measures require addressing loopholes in trade policies that create the current situation, where an oversupply of Chinese modules is being sold at artificially low prices as well as the harmful impacts of the use of forced labor.
轉向歐盟。雖然我們對本月制定的《淨零工業法案》的進展感到高興,該法案將優先許可和資助被認為必要技術,以幫助歐盟實現到 2050 年使該地區實現氣候中和的目標,但仍有許多工作要做。正如我們一直強調的那樣,只有採取足夠措施確保長期、持續、公平的競爭環境,對本地製造業的投資才能擴大。這些措施需要解決貿易政策的漏洞,這些漏洞造成了當前的局面,即中國組件供應過剩、以人為的低價出售,以及使用強迫勞動造成的有害影響。
First Solar has demonstrated the benefits to domestic economies and communities of establishing local solar manufacturing. This is illustrated by an economic impact study commissioned by us and conducted by the University of Louisiana at Lafayette that was released yesterday. This study found that First Solar supported over 16,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs across the U.S. in 2023. This excludes an additional 5,800 construction-related jobs tied to our capital investments in 2023.
First Solar 已證明建立本地太陽能製造工廠將為國內經濟和社區帶來益處。我們委託路易斯安那大學拉斐特分校進行的經濟影響研究於昨天發布,證明了這一點。這項研究發現,First Solar 在 2023 年為美國創造了超過 16,000 個直接、間接和誘發就業機會。
As we scale to an expected 14 gigawatts of annual nameplate capacity in the U.S., the analysis forecasts that First Solar's operations alone will support approximately 30,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs across the country by 2026, representing approximately $2.8 billion in annual labor income and $10 billion in total economic output to the 2026 U.S. economy. This study estimates that every First Solar job, excluding construction, supported 6 jobs in 2023. And this ratio is forecasted to increase to 7.3 jobs by 2026.
隨著我們擴大到美國預期的14千兆瓦年額定容量,分析預測到2026年,僅First Solar的營運一項就將在全國範圍內支持約30,000個直接、間接和誘導就業崗位,相當於每年約28億美元的勞動收入和2026年美國經濟100億美元的總經濟產出。這項研究估計,到 2023 年,每個 First Solar 工作(不包括建築業)將支持 6 個就業機會。
We believe this data defines in tangible terms the value that domestic solar manufacturing delivers to the U.S. economy and should provide a basis for bipartisan political support to establish and maintain the policies and trade measures necessary to provide a domestic solar supply chain and a level playing field.
我們相信這些數據切實地定義了國內太陽能製造為美國經濟帶來的價值,並應為兩黨政治支持提供基礎,以建立和維持必要的政策和貿易措施,以提供國內太陽能供應鍊和公平的競爭環境。
We now turn to Slide 7 to examine our pipeline. Despite the current oversupply of Chinese modules and loopholes in trade policies in our key markets, our pipeline of potential bookings remain robust as reflected on Slide 7. Total bookings opportunity stands at 66.5 gigawatts, an increase of approximately 600 megawatts since the previous quarter. Our mid- to late-stage opportunities decreased by approximately 500 megawatts to 32 gigawatts and includes 23.2 gigawatts in North America, 8.5 gigawatts in India and 0.3 gigawatts in the EU.
我們現在轉到投影片 7 檢查我們的管道。儘管目前中國組件供應過剩,且我們主要市場的貿易政策存在漏洞,但如第 7 頁幻燈片所示,我們的潛在訂單管道依然強勁。我們的中後期機會減少了約 500 兆瓦,至 32 千兆瓦,其中包括北美的 23.2 千兆瓦、印度的 8.5 千兆瓦和歐盟的 0.3 千兆瓦。
Included within our mid- to late-stage pipeline are 3.8 gigawatts of opportunities that have contracted subject to CP precedents, which includes 1.1 gigawatts in India. Given the shorter time frame between contracting and product delivery in India relative to other markets, we would not expect the same multiyear contracted commitments that we are currently seeing in the United States. As a reminder, signed contracts in India are not recognized as bookings until we have received full security against the offtake.
我們的中後期管道包括 3.8 千兆瓦的已根據 CP 先例簽訂合約的機會,其中包括印度的 1.1 千兆瓦。鑑於印度相對於其他市場而言簽訂合約和交付產品之間的時間間隔較短,我們不會期望出現與美國目前相同的多年期合約承諾。提醒一下,在印度,只有當我們收到完整的承購擔保後,簽訂的合約才被視為預訂。
Turning to Slide 8. We are pleased with our progress of our Ohio capacity expansions and new Alabama manufacturing facility, which are expected to be completed and begin commercial shipments in the first and second halves of the year, respectively. Once these projects are completed, we expect to exit 2024 with over 21 gigawatts of global nameplate capacity, approximately half of which is forecasted to be local in the U.S. Our new Louisiana facility is also on track and is expected to commence commercial operations in late 2025, bringing our expected total nameplate capacity to over 25 gigawatts by the end of 2026 with 14 gigawatts in the U.S. As a reflection of this expansion road map and continued optimization of the existing fleet, we have summarized our expected exit nameplate capacity and production for 2024 through 2026 on this slide.
轉到幻燈片 8。一旦這些項目完工,我們預計到 2024 年全球額定容量將超過 21 吉瓦,其中約一半預計將在美國本地。 2026 年預期的退出額定容量和產量。
Our strategic expansion of manufacturing capacity in the U.S., which is supported by an extensive domestic value chain, enables our customers' efforts to begin from -- to benefit from the ITC and production tax credit domestic content bonuses under the Inflation Reduction Act. The resulting demand for First Solar's American-made solar technologies, combined with the eligibility of our vertically integrated manufacturing facilities for Section 45X tax credits, is expected to contribute significantly to our financial performance in the coming years.
我們在美國策略性地擴張製造能力,並得到廣泛的國內價值鏈的支持,使我們的客戶的努力能夠從通貨膨脹削減法案下的國際貿易稅收抵免和國內內容獎金中獲益。由此產生的對 First Solar 美國製造的太陽能技術的需求,加上我們的垂直整合製造設施符合第 45X 條稅收抵免的資格,預計將在未來幾年對我們的財務業績做出重大貢獻。
In addition to progressing our manufacturing expansion plans, we expect 2024 to be a foundational year from the point of view of accelerating our R&D efforts in pursuit of our goal to develop and commercialize the next generation of photovoltaics. As previously noted, in addition to a new perovskite development line, we expect to commission our Ohio R&D innovation center this year.
除了推進我們的製造擴張計劃外,我們還預計 2024 年將成為加快研發力度以實現開發和商業化下一代光伏技術的目標的基礎之年。如前所述,除了新的鈣鈦礦開發線外,我們預計今年也將投入俄亥俄州研發創新中心。
Located near our existing Perrysburg manufacturing facility and covering an area of approximately 1.3 million square feet, it will feature a high-tech pilot manufacturing line, allowing for the production of full-size prototypes of thin-film and tandem PV modules. This center will allow us to create an R&D sandbox separate from our manufacturing operations, which we expect will accelerate without taking manufacturing mission-critical tools off-line, which would impact throughput and cost.
該工廠位於我們現有的佩里斯堡製造工廠附近,佔地約 130 萬平方英尺,將擁有一條高科技試驗生產線,可生產全尺寸薄膜和串聯光伏模組原型。該中心將使我們能夠創建一個獨立於製造業務的研發沙箱,我們預計這將加速製造過程,而無需使製造關鍵任務工具下線,否則會影響產量和成本。
To close, as I've mentioned at our recent Analyst Day, we established a goal to exit this decade stronger than we entered it. Reflecting on our progress, we entered -- we ended 2023 in a stronger position than we began it with a record contracted backlog, a significant pipeline of booking opportunities and continued robust demand in our core markets despite some of the current policy landscape challenges.
最後,正如我在最近的分析師日中提到的那樣,我們制定了一個目標,要使這個十年結束時我們比進入這個十年時更加強大。回顧我們的進展,儘管當前政策格局面臨一些挑戰,但我們在 2023 年底的狀況比年初更加強勁,擁有創紀錄的合約積壓訂單、大量預訂機會,核心市場的需求持續強勁。
We entered 2024 with new capacity of our most advantaged Series 7 product coming online, increased R&D investment and capabilities and continued momentum across the business driven by a focus on our points of differentiation and a balanced business model focused on growth, liquidity and profitability.
進入 2024 年,我們最具優勢的 7 系列產品的新產能將上線,研發投入和能力將會增加,整個業務繼續保持良好發展勢頭,這得益於我們對差異化點的關注以及注重增長、流動性和盈利能力的平衡業務模式。
I'll now turn the call over to Alex, who will discuss our 2024 outlook and guidance.
現在我將電話轉給亞歷克斯,他將討論我們 2024 年的展望和指導。
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Thanks, Mark. Before discussing our financial guidance, I'd like to reiterate 3 themes from our recent Analyst Day related to our growth and investment thesis, our approach to our backlog and bookings and our expansion into India.
謝謝,馬克。在討論我們的財務指導之前,我想重申最近分析師日的三個主題,涉及我們的成長和投資論點、我們對積壓訂單和預訂的處理方式以及我們在印度的擴張。
Firstly, from a growth and investment thesis perspective, we continue to focus on differentiation and are guided by an approach to our business model that balances growth, profitability and liquidity. This decision-making framework informs our long-term strategic direction. It guided our strategy to exit the systems business at the end of the last decade and significantly expand our module manufacturing business, evidenced in a doubling of nameplate capacity from 2021 to 2023 and the forecasted increase in nameplate capacity of over 50% from 2023 to 2026.
首先,從成長和投資理論的角度來看,我們繼續專注於差異化,並以平衡成長、獲利能力和流動性的商業模式為指導。這個決策框架為我們的長期策略方向提供了資訊。它指導了我們的策略,在上個十年末退出系統業務,並大幅擴展我們的模組製造業務,其證據是,從 2021 年到 2023 年,銘牌產能將翻一番,預計從 2023 年到 2026 年,銘牌產能將增加 50% 以上。
The scaling capacity is supported by optionality in our R&D road map across energy attributes, including efficiency, degradation, temperature coefficient and bifaciality. We've gone from deploying prototypes of early bifacial CadTel modules at a test facility in 2021 to converting our lead line at the end of 2023 with commercial deployment across a significant portion of our fleet plan for 2024. Additionally, in the fourth quarter of 2024, we expect to begin production of our first commercial CuRe modules on our lead line in Ohio.
我們的研發路線圖涵蓋了各種能源屬性,包括效率、退化、溫度係數和雙面性,這些屬性的可選性支持了擴展能力。我們已經從 2021 年在測試設施部署早期雙面 CadTel 模組原型,到 2023 年底轉換我們的領先生產線,並在 2024 年的很大一部分機組計劃中進行商業部署。
As it relates to contracting this volume, we continue to prioritize certainty. Our reported backlog, which includes U.S. and rest of world bookings with our typical contractual security provisions but excludes contracts signed in India unless backed by 100% liquid security, is made up of 2 types of contracts: those related to a specific asset or project; and frameworks, which are typically larger, multiyear and often have less certainty over delivery timing.
當涉及到簽訂此合約量時,我們繼續優先考慮確定性。我們報告的積壓訂單包括美國和世界其他地區的具有典型合同擔保條款的訂單,但不包括在印度簽署的合同,除非有 100% 的流動擔保,該訂單由兩種類型的合同組成:與特定資產或項目相關的合同;和框架通常規模較大、需要多年時間,且交付時間往往較不確定。
Common across these contracts is a fixed price structure, which may include adjusters for technology improvements and which typically include adjusters for bin class, freight risk and commodities. As of December 31, 2023, approximately 95% of the megawatts in our backlog had some form of freight protection and approximately 85% had some form of steel and/or aluminum commodity cost protection.
這些合約的共同點是採用固定價格結構,其中可能包括技術改進的調整器,並且通常包括貨艙等級、貨運風險和商品的調整器。截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日,我們積壓訂單中約 95% 的兆瓦具有某種形式的貨運保護,約 85% 的兆瓦具有某種形式的鋼鐵和/或鋁商品成本保護。
As a reminder, a limited number of our contracts contain a termination for convenience provision, often related to customer regulatory requirements or as a portion of large multiyear framework commitment, which generally require substantial advanced notice to be invoked and features a contractually required termination payment to us. This payment is generally set at a substantial percentage of the contract value and backstopped by some form of security.
提醒一下,我們的有限數量的合約包含便利終止條款,通常與客戶監管要求有關,或作為大型多年期框架承諾的一部分,這些條款通常需要提前大量通知才能生效,並且合約要求向我們支付終止費用。該付款通常佔合約價值的很大一部分,並以某種形式的擔保作為後盾。
As of today's call, the percentage of megawatts in our contracted backlog that had a termination for convenience clause with an associated termination payment obligation is roughly equivalent to that given at our Analyst Day in September of 2023. Note, given this provision is one of many deal terms that is negotiated with our customers in the process of a module sale, we do not expect to provide updates on this metric.
截至今天的電話會議,我們合約積壓訂單中含有終止便利條款及相關終止付款義務的兆瓦百分比與我們 2023 年 9 月分析師日給出的百分比大致相同。
On our earnings call in February of 2022, we stated that as we significantly increased our nameplate capacity, we believe that this anticipated growth will generate significant contribution margin to drive operating margin expansion. In 2023, that thesis was validated as we saw significant year-over-year operating margin expansion. As we continue our capacity growth, we expect to continue to see operating margin expansion in 2024 as reflected in our guidance provided today.
在 2022 年 2 月的財報電話會議上,我們表示,隨著我們大幅提高額定產能,我們相信這一預期成長將產生可觀的貢獻利潤率,從而推動營業利潤率的擴大。 2023 年,這一論點得到了驗證,因為我們看到營業利潤率同比大幅擴大。隨著我們產能的不斷增長,我們預計 2024 年的營業利潤率將繼續擴大,這反映在我們今天提供的指引中。
Secondly, as it relates to our contracted backlog, excluding India, we remain cumulatively oversold through 2026. This overallocation position is deliberate. It provides us resilience to the uncertain timing of delivery inherent in some of our larger framework contracts, a natural tendency for delay in the project development process as well as the potential for incremental supply as we start up and ramp new factories.
其次,就我們的合約積壓訂單而言,除印度外,到 2026 年我們仍處於累計超賣狀態。它使我們能夠應對一些較大框架合約中固有的不確定的交付時間、專案開發過程中自然延遲的趨勢以及我們啟動和擴大新工廠時增加供應的潛力。
The further out the delivery time frame, the more comfortable we are with overallocation. The closer we get to delivery dates and as we enter any given year and undertake our annual planning process, the more we look to ensure that demand is able to be met with available supply. As of late Q4 2023, we have not seen significant customer requests for schedule changes beyond the typical daily and weekly balancing that occurs in our supply-demand forecasting.
交貨時間越遠,我們越能接受超額分配。我們越接近交貨日期,並且隨著我們進入任何一年並開展年度規劃流程,我們越希望確保需求能夠透過現有的供應得到滿足。截至 2023 年第四季末,除了供需預測中典型的每日和每週平衡之外,我們還沒有看到客戶對時間表變更提出重大要求。
As we conclude our planning process for 2024 through the first 2 months of the year, we have seen some requests from customers to shift delivery volume timing out as a function of project development delays. As we stated previously, including at our Analyst Day, we will work with our customers to optimize their project schedules, including moving delivery dates in the short and medium term where possible, balanced by the constraints of our production and shipment needs, including selling our full production in 2024, which we continue to expect to do.
隨著我們在今年前兩個月完成 2024 年的規劃流程,我們看到一些客戶要求根據專案開發延遲來調整交付量超時時間。正如我們之前所說,包括在分析師日上,我們將與客戶合作優化他們的專案進度,包括在盡可能的情況下在短期和中期內調整交貨日期,並在我們的生產和裝運需求的限制下實現平衡,包括在 2024 年銷售我們的全部產量,我們仍有望做到這一點。
Our contractual business underlie and govern these relationships and discussions. In certain situations, our approach to overselling could expose us contractually should we be unable to manage our overallocated position. This is where the strength of our long-standing customer relationship is key, providing flexibility not just for our customers but also often for First Solar delivery time lines. Given our supply-demand balancing so far and our ability in the near term to supply modules from India to the U.S., we do not forecast any damages associated with overallocation in 2024.
我們的合約業務構成並支配這些關係和討論。在某些情況下,如果我們無法管理超額分配的頭寸,我們的超額銷售方法可能會在合約上使我們暴露風險。這就是我們長期的客戶關係的力量所在,它不僅為我們的客戶提供靈活性,也為 First Solar 的交貨時間表提供靈活性。鑑於我們迄今為止的供需平衡以及我們近期從印度向美國供應模組的能力,我們預測 2024 年不會因過度分配而造成任何損失。
Contractual provisions also protects us in the event of long-term customer issues or disputes. For example, we were recently notified by a corporate customer that they are experiencing significant delays to their project. And based on this and their current position of financial distress, we do not intend to take delivery of 381 megawatts of modules scheduled for delivery in 2024. We are working with this customer to optimize the outcome for both the customer and First Solar, but in this and other similar circumstances, we will continue to enforce our contractual rights to termination penalties or other damages in the event of their contractual breach.
合約條款還可以在發生長期客戶問題或糾紛時保護我們。例如,我們最近收到一家企業客戶的通知,他們的專案遇到了嚴重延誤。基於這一點以及他們目前的財務困境,我們不打算接收原定於 2024 年交付的 381 兆瓦模組。 我們正在與該客戶合作,以優化客戶和 First Solar 的結果,但在這種和其他類似情況下,如果他們違反合同,我們將繼續執行我們的合同權利,要求終止合同,罰款或其他損害賠償。
As previously discussed on recent earnings calls and at our Analyst Day, we believe our approach to forward contracting has been validated in the past through multiple pricing and supply-demand cycles in the industry. We've also previously stated that we expect the pace of bookings to slow after 2 record contracting years.
正如我們在最近的財報電話會議和分析師日上所討論的那樣,我們相信,我們的遠期合約方法已經通過行業中的多個定價和供需週期得到了驗證。我們之前也曾表示,預計在經歷了兩年創紀錄的合約簽約後,預訂速度將會放緩。
Our current backlog, cumulatively oversold through 2026 and with bookings extending to the end of the decade, provides us optionality in periods of pricing and policy uncertainty. Put simply, if we did not book any more deals by the end of this year, we would remain sold out 2 years forward through 2025 and 2026. We do not expect this to be the case, and we will continue to contract with customers who prioritize long-term relationships and value our differentiation as reflected in our 2.3 gigawatts of bookings since the previous earnings call.
我們目前的積壓訂單累計超額銷售至 2026 年,預訂延續到本世紀末,這為我們在定價和政策不確定時期提供了選擇權。簡而言之,如果我們在今年年底前沒有簽訂更多交易,那麼到 2025 年和 2026 年,我們的訂單仍將全部售罄。 我們不希望出現這種情況,我們將繼續與優先考慮長期關係並重視我們差異化的客戶簽訂合同,這反映在我們自上次財報電話會議以來的 2.3 千瓦訂單中。
But given the significant variables in the policy environment that Mark discussed earlier as well as the uncertainty around the 2024 U.S. presidential and congressional elections and their potential impact on the renewable sector, we expect to take advantage of this position of strength and be highly selective in our contracting in 2024.
但考慮到馬克先前討論過的政策環境中的重大變數,以及 2024 年美國總統和國會選舉的不確定性及其對再生能源領域的潛在影響,我們預計將利用這一優勢地位,並在 2024 年的承包中嚴格挑選。
Finally, as it relates to India, from a contracting perspective, as of our Q3 earnings call in October, we had 1.7 gigawatts of signed contracts with our mid- to late-stage pipeline. As a reminder, signed contracts in India will not be recognized as bookings until we have received full security against the offtake. As of today's call, that number is 1.1 gigawatts following a 600-megawatt default by a customer who has recently delisted from the New York Stock Exchange. We are seeking to enforce our contractual rights under this contract and are currently seeking to recover the contractual termination payments owed to us.
最後,就印度而言,從合約角度來看,截至 10 月第三季財報電話會議,我們已經簽署了 1.7 千兆瓦的中後期合約。提醒一下,在我們收到完整的承購擔保之前,在印度簽署的合約將不會被承認為預訂。截至今天的電話會議,由於一位最近從紐約證券交易所退市的客戶違約了 600 兆瓦,這個數字為 1.1 千兆瓦。我們正在尋求執行我們在本合約下的合約權利,並且目前正在尋求追回欠我們的合約終止付款。
From an ASP perspective, the temporary suspension of the ALMM policy that Mark discussed earlier is having a short-term negative impact on domestic market ASPs and gross margin, which is reflected in our 2024 guidance. We believe the expected reinstatement of the ALMM at the end of Q1, together with the ability to serve the domestic content market segment, which we are uniquely positioned to address given our vertical integration, provides a market opportunity with a gross margin profile, excluding the Section 45X tax credit benefit, comparable to the fleet average given the lower production costs in our Chennai facility.
從 ASP 的角度來看,馬克先前討論的 ALMM 政策的暫停對國內市場 ASP 和毛利率產生了短期負面影響,這反映在我們的 2024 年指引中。我們相信,預計在第一季末恢復 ALMM,加上我們能夠服務於國內內容市場,而鑑於我們的垂直整合,我們具有獨特的優勢來解決這一問題,這將提供一個市場機會,我們的毛利率狀況(不包括第 45X 條稅收抵免優惠)可與車隊平均水平相媲美,因為我們欽奈工廠的生產成本較低。
So with this context in mind, I'll next discuss the assumptions included in our 2024 financial guidance. Please turn to Slide 9. As referenced in 2023, we have effectively completed the transition back to a module-only company. We continue to have certain remaining risks, liabilities, indemnities, warranty obligations, accounts payable, accounts receivable, earnouts, cash collection, dispute resolution and other legacy involvement related to our former systems business. Consistent with 2023 reporting, we no longer provide segment-specific guidance but shall, in the future, note any significant impact from the other segment to our consolidated financials.
因此,考慮到這個背景,我接下來將討論我們 2024 年財務指引中包含的假設。請翻到幻燈片 9。我們仍然保留著一些與我們先前的系統業務相關的風險、責任、賠償、擔保義務、應付帳款、應收帳款、獲利、現金收款、爭議解決和其他遺留問題。與 2023 年的報告一致,我們不再提供特定分部的指導,但將來會注意其他分部對我們的合併財務狀況的任何重大影響。
As it relates to growth, our factory expansions and upgrades remain on schedule to increase our expected global nameplate capacity to 25 gigawatts by year-end 2026. In 2024, growth-related costs are expected to impact operating income by approximately $125 million to $155 million. This comprises start-up expenses of $85 million to $95 million primarily incurred in connection with our new factory in Alabama and estimated ramp costs of $40 million to $60 million at our factories in India, Ohio and Alabama. The anticipated expansion of upgrades will contribute meaningfully to our production plans in 2025 and beyond.
就成長而言,我們的工廠擴建和升級仍按計劃進行,到 2026 年底,我們的預期全球額定產能將提高到 25 吉瓦。這包括主要與我們在阿拉巴馬州的新工廠相關的 8500 萬至 9500 萬美元的啟動費用,以及位於印度、俄亥俄州和阿拉巴馬州的工廠的預計 4000 萬至 6000 萬美元的爬坡成本。預期的升級擴展將對我們 2025 年及以後的生產計劃做出重大貢獻。
Operationally, in 2024, we're expected to produce 15.6 to 16 gigawatts of modules. From a sold perspective, we expect to sell 15.6 to 16.3 gigawatts, of which 5.8 to 6.1 gigawatts is produced in the U.S. and 2 to 2.2 gigawatts is assumed to be domestic sales in India.
從營運角度來看,到 2024 年,我們預計將生產 15.6 至 16 千兆瓦的模組。從銷售角度來看,我們預計銷售 15.6 至 16.3 千兆瓦,其中 5.8 至 6.1 千兆瓦在美國生產,2 至 2.2 千兆瓦假設為印度國內銷售。
For the full year, we expect to recognize a fleet ASP sold of approximately $0.282 per watt. This includes India domestic sold volume; a non-India base ASP roughly in line with our expectations from our September Analyst Day; and the benefit of certain technology, commodity and freight adders.
我們預計全年電池組平均售價約為每瓦 0.282 美元。其中包括印度國內銷售量;非印度基礎的 ASP 與我們 9 月分析師日的預期大致相符;以及某些技術、商品和貨運附加價值的利益。
From a cost perspective, full year 2024 cost per watt produced is forecast to be in the range of $0.187 to $0.189 per watt, an approximately 2% to 3% improvement versus 2023. This is driven by expected improvements in throughput, yield and reduced inbound freight and variable costs as well as the benefit of an increased mix of lower-cost India production, partially offset by increased costs related to the rollout of our bifacial product. As it relates to cost per watt sold, we are forecasting fleet average sales freight, warehousing ramp and other period costs of approximately $0.03 per watt, resulting in a full year 2024 cost per watt sold reduction of approximately 7% versus the prior year.
從成本角度來看,預計 2024 年全年每瓦生產成本將在 0.187 美元至 0.189 美元之間,比 2023 年提高約 2% 至 3%。 這是由於預期吞吐量和產量將有所提高,入境運費和變動成本將有所降低,以及印度低成本生產比例帶來的好處,但部分抵消了我們推出的好處。就每瓦銷售成本而言,我們預測車隊平均銷售運費、倉儲坡道和其他期間成本約為每瓦 0.03 美元,導致 2024 年全年每瓦銷售成本比前一年減少約 7%。
As mentioned at our Analyst Day, approximately 3/4 of the cost of our module is derisked given approximately 1/3 of the cost is fixed and approximately 2/3 of the variable costs are subject to forward contracting, long-term agreements or have contractual mechanisms to pass costs through to our customers in the event that these costs change materially. Additionally, over 95% of our backlog has some form of sales freight protection, leading to significant gross margin visibility.
正如我們在分析師日所提到的,我們模組成本的約 3/4 是去風險的,因為約 1/3 的成本是固定的,而約 2/3 的變動成本受遠期合約、長期協議的影響,或者俱有合約機制,以便在這些成本發生重大變化時將成本轉嫁給我們的客戶。此外,我們 95% 以上的積壓訂單都具有某種形式的銷售運費保護,從而顯著提高了毛利率。
From a capital structure perspective, our strong balance sheet has been and remains a strategic differentiator, enabling us to both weather periods of volatility as well as providing flexibility to pursue growth opportunities, including funding our Series 6 and Series 7 growth.
從資本結構的角度來看,我們強勁的資產負債表一直是、並且仍然是一個策略差異化因素,使我們能夠度過波動時期,同時還能靈活地尋求成長機會,包括為我們的 6 系列和 7 系列成長提供資金。
We ended 2023 in a strong liquidity position, and coupled with forecasted operating cash flows from module sales, cash from the sale of our 2023 Section 45X tax credits and anticipated module prepayments, we expect to be able to finance our currently announced capital programs without requiring external finance.
到 2023 年底,我們的流動性狀況良好,再加上模組銷售預測的營運現金流、2023 年第 45X 條稅收抵免銷售產生的現金以及預期的模組預付款,我們預計能夠為我們目前宣布的資本計劃提供資金,而無需外部融資。
As it relates to our 2024 Section 45X credits, we are forecasting to elect direct payments and are therefore assuming no discount to the value of these credits for a sale to a third party. But we'll continue to evaluate options and valuations for earlier monetization.
由於它與我們的 2024 年第 45X 條抵免額有關,我們預計將選擇直接付款,因此假設在向第三方出售這些抵免額時其價值不會有任何折扣。但我們將繼續評估早期貨幣化的選擇和估值。
I'll now cover the full year 2024 guidance ranges on Slide 10. Our net sales guidance is between $4.4 billion and $4.6 billion. Gross margin is expected to be between $2 billion and $2.1 billion or approximately 46%, which includes $1 billion to $1.05 billion of Section 45X tax credits and $40 million to $60 million of ramp costs. SG&A expenses are expected to total $170 million to $180 million versus $197 million in 2023, demonstrating our ability to leverage our largely fixed operating cost structure while expanding production.
我現在將在第 10 張投影片上介紹 2024 年全年指引範圍。毛利率預計在 20 億美元至 21 億美元之間,或約為 46%,其中包括 10 億美元至 10.5 億美元的第 45X 條稅收抵免和 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的坡道成本。預計銷售、一般及行政開支總計將達到 1.7 億至 1.8 億美元,而 2023 年則為 1.97 億美元,這表明我們有能力在擴大生產的同時利用我們基本固定的營運成本結構。
R&D expenses are expected to total $200 million to $210 million versus $152 million in 2023. R&D expenses are increasing primarily due to commencing operations at our R&D innovation center and perovskite development line and the expectation of adding head count to our R&D team to further invest in advanced research initiatives. SG&A and R&D expense combined is expected to total $370 million to $390 million. Total operating expenses, which include $85 million to $95 million of production start-up expense, are expected to be between $455 million to $485 million.
預計研發費用總計將達到 2 億至 2.1 億美元,而 2023 年為 1.52 億美元。銷售、一般及行政開支及研發開支預計總計 3.7 億至 3.9 億美元。總營運費用預計將在 4.55 億美元至 4.85 億美元之間,其中包括 8,500 萬至 9,500 萬美元的生產啟動費用。
Operating income is expected to be between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion, implying an operating margin of approximately 34% to 35% and is inclusive of $125 million to $155 million of combined ramp costs and plant start-up expenses and $1 billion to $1.05 billion of Section 45X tax credits. Compared to an operating margin of 26% in 2023, this year-over-year increase demonstrates how we expect to leverage our business model against a largely fixed SG&A cost structure, which shows the value of growth in driving incremental contribution margin and operating margin expansion.
預計營業收入在 15 億美元至 16 億美元之間,意味著營業利潤率約為 34% 至 35%,其中包括 1.25 億美元至 1.55 億美元的綜合坡道成本和工廠啟動費用以及 10 億美元至 10.5 億美元的第 45X 條稅收抵免。與 2023 年 26% 的營業利潤率相比,這一同比增長表明我們希望如何利用我們的業務模式來對抗基本固定的銷售、一般及行政費用結構,這顯示了增長在推動增量貢獻利潤率和營業利潤率擴大方面的價值。
Turning to nonoperating items. We expect interest income, interest expense and other income to net to $35 million to $50 million. Full year tax expense is forecast to be $135 million to $150 million. This results in a full year 2024 earnings per diluted share guidance range of $13 to $14.
轉向非經營項目。我們預計利息收入、利息支出和其他收入淨額將達到 3,500 萬至 5,000 萬美元。預計全年稅費為 1.35 億至 1.5 億美元。這意味著 2024 年全年每股攤薄收益預期範圍為 13 美元至 14 美元。
So from an earnings cadence perspective, we're expecting net sales and cost of sales profile, excluding the benefit of Section 45X tax credits, of approximately 15% in Q1, 25% in Q2 and 60% in the second half of the year. We forecast Section 45X tax credits of approximately $190 million in Q1, $230 million in Q2 and $600 million in the second half of the year. With an operating expenses profile roughly evenly split across the year, this results in a forecasted operating income and earnings per share profile of approximately 15% in the first quarter, 25% in the second quarter and 60% in the second half of the year.
因此,從獲利節奏的角度來看,我們預期淨銷售額和銷售成本(不包括第 45X 條稅收抵免的優惠)在第一季約為 15%,在第二季約為 25%,在下半年約為 60%。我們預測第 45X 條稅收抵免在第一季約為 1.9 億美元,在第二季約為 2.3 億美元,在下半年約為 6 億美元。由於全年營業費用分佈大致均勻,預計第一季營業收入和每股收益約為 15%,第二季約為 25%,下半年約為 60%。
Capital expenditures in 2024 are expected to range from $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion as we progress the construction of our Alabama and Louisiana Series 7 factories, implement throughput upgrades to the fleet and invest in other R&D-related programs. Approximately 2/3 of our CapEx is associated with capacity expansion and 1/4 are related to our R&D center and technology replication with the remainder mostly related to maintenance and logistics. Our year-end 2024 net cash balance is anticipated to be between $0.9 billion and $1.2 billion.
隨著我們推動阿拉巴馬州和路易斯安那州 7 系列工廠的建設、實施車隊的吞吐量升級以及投資其他研發相關項目,預計 2024 年的資本支出將在 17 億美元至 19 億美元之間。我們的資本支出約有三分之二與產能擴張有關,四分之一則與我們的研發中心和技術複製有關,其餘主要與維護和物流有關。我們預計 2024 年底的淨現金餘額將在 9 億至 12 億美元之間。
Turning to Slide 11. I'll summarize the key messages from today's call. Demand has been solid with 2.3 gigawatts of net bookings since the previous earnings call, leading to a contracted backlog of 80.1 gigawatts. Our opportunity pipeline remains strong with a global opportunity set of 66.5 gigawatts, including mid- to late-stage opportunities of 32 gigawatts.
翻到第 11 張投影片。自上次收益電話會議以來,需求一直很強勁,淨預訂量為 2.3 千兆瓦,導致合約積壓量達到 80.1 千兆瓦。我們的機會管道依然強勁,全球機會總量為 66.5 千兆瓦,其中包括 32 千兆瓦的中後期機會。
We continue to expand our manufacturing capacity, exiting 2023 with 16.6 gigawatts of nameplate capacity and expect to exit 2026 with approximately 25 gigawatts of nameplate capacity, including approximately 14 gigawatts of nameplate capacity in the U.S. We are, as previously announced, adding a new dedicated R&D facility in Ohio projected to be operational in the first half of 2024, which we believe will allow us to optimize technology improvements with significantly less disruption to our commercial manufacturing lines.
我們將繼續擴大我們的製造能力,到 2023 年底,額定產能將達到 16.6 千兆瓦,預計到 2026 年底,額定產能將達到約 25 千兆瓦,其中包括美國約 14 千兆瓦的額定產能將達到約 25 千兆瓦,其中包括美國約 14 千兆瓦的額定產能。線的干擾。
Earnings per diluted share was $7.74 in 2023, including the impact of selling our 2023 Section 45X tax credits and the impairment of our investment in CubicPV, above the midpoint of our initial and Q3 updated guidance. We're forecasting full year 2024 earnings per diluted share of $13 to $14.
2023 年每股攤薄收益為 7.74 美元,其中包括出售 2023 年第 45X 條稅收抵免的影響以及我們對 CubicPV 的投資減值,高於我們初始和第三季度更新指引的中點。我們預測 2024 年全年每股攤薄收益為 13 至 14 美元。
Finally, we ended the year with a cash balance of $1.6 billion net of debt and expect to end 2024 with a cash balance of $0.9 million to $1.2 billion net of debt. This net cash position, together with optionality around monetizing our 2024 Section 45X tax credits, places us in a position of strength in which to expand our capacity, invest in research, development and technology improvements and pursue other strategic opportunities as we march forward on our journey to lead the world's sustainable energy future.
最後,我們在年底的現金餘額為 16 億美元(扣除債務),預計 2024 年底的現金餘額為 90 萬美元至 12 億美元(扣除債務)。這一淨現金狀況,加上圍繞 2024 年第 45X 條稅收抵免貨幣化的選擇性,使我們處於有利地位,可以擴大我們的產能、投資於研究、開發和技術改進,並在我們引領世界可持續能源未來的征程中繼續前進,尋求其他戰略機遇。
With that, that concludes our prepared remarks and open the call for questions. Operator?
我們的準備好的演講到此結束,現在開始提問。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) We'll take the first question from Moses Sutton, BNP Paribas.
(操作員指示)我們將回答法國巴黎銀行的摩西·薩頓提出的第一個問題。
Moses Nathaniel Sutton - Research Analyst & Head of Clean Energy Research
Moses Nathaniel Sutton - Research Analyst & Head of Clean Energy Research
Congrats on continued price momentum and just execution. At some point, should we see bookings, I want to say, near 0 in a given quarter? I mean simply can't book more until time passes naturally, and I think investors kind of think of that. Or conversely, would you eventually lower that ASP into like $0.29 range? It went all the way to $0.32, which was great to see. So just curious how that dynamic plays through the year. I know you could book some, but what should we expect more precisely?
祝賀價格持續保持強勁勢頭並順利執行。在某個時候,我們是否應該看到某個季度的預訂量接近 0?我的意思是,只是不能預訂更多,直到時間自然流逝,我認為投資者也會想到這一點。或者相反,您最終會將 ASP 降低到 0.29 美元左右嗎?它一路漲至 0.32 美元,這真是令人高興。所以只是好奇這種動態在一年中如何發揮作用。我知道您可以預訂一些,但我們應該更精確地期待什麼呢?
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Yes. So I'll take that one, I guess. In terms of -- as Alex included in his remarks, I mean, our plan is to be patient. The opportunities are there, you can see the pipeline of opportunities that we represent both mid- to late- and obviously, the early-stage pipeline.
是的。所以我想我會選擇那個。正如亞歷克斯在評論中所說,我們的計劃是保持耐心。機會就在那裡,你可以看到我們所代表的機會管道,既有中期到後期的,顯然也有早期的。
Separating U.S. from India, you're going to continue to bookings in India. Clearly, as we indicated, we've got a conversion that will happen of those contractors subject to CP. So that's going to continue on a cadence that you would expect, call it, hundreds of megawatts, maybe a gigawatt in any particular quarter, to sell through that and position for 2024. So you'll see that momentum continuing.
將美國與印度分開,您將繼續在印度預訂。顯然,正如我們所指出的,我們將對那些受 CP 約束的承包商進行轉變。因此,這將按照您預期的節奏繼續下去,在任何一個特定季度,我們稱之為數百兆瓦,也許就是一千兆瓦,透過這個節奏銷售,為 2024 年做好準備。
As it relates to the U.S., our strategy of being patient is largely how we're going to engage the market and conversations with our customers. I'm very happy with the bookings that we showed up for this last quarter. Great ASPs, good counterparties, technology adders associated with it. So -- and fettered into a period of time that's very constructive for us. A lot of that volume goes out into '27, '28 and '29 and touches '30 even. So happy from that standpoint.
就美國而言,我們的耐心策略在很大程度上決定了我們如何參與市場並與客戶進行對話。我對我們上個季度的預訂情況感到非常滿意。優秀的 ASP、良好的交易對手以及與之相關的技術附加價值。所以 — — 並且束縛在一段對我們來說非常有建設性的時期內。其中很大一部分流向了 27、28、29 年,甚至延伸到了 30 年。從這個角度來看,我很高興。
We've got right now -- we've got a short window between now and the next earnings call. So you could see maybe a period of softness there outside of the volume that we would expect to continue to recognize for India. But we've -- I've got ongoing commercial conversations right now for north of 3 gigawatts of bookings here for shipments into the U.S. that are in late-stage negotiations. And actually, as this call was ongoing, I got a text that about 10% of that now has been booked and will reflect in the next earnings call.
我們現在——從現在到下次財報電話會議之間只有很短的時間。因此,您可能會看到,除了我們預計印度將繼續出現的銷售疲軟期之外,印度的銷售量還將繼續疲軟。但我們—我現在正在進行商業談判,關於向美國發貨 3 千兆瓦的訂單,目前談判已進入後期階段。實際上,在這次電話會議進行時,我收到一條短信說,其中約 10% 已被預訂,並將反映在下一次收益電話會議上。
So the momentum is there. It's available to us. It's how we choose to engage, and our strategy is to try to maintain ASPs and deliver the certainty that we provide to our customers. There's a lot going on right now. When you step back and reflect, I mean, there's a whole policy environment of issues that have to be resolved and uncertainty, and there's potential change in the administration in D.C., which Alex highlighted as well.
因此,這種勢頭是存在的。我們可以使用這個功能。這是我們選擇參與的方式,我們的策略是努力維持 ASP 並為客戶提供我們所提供的確定性。現在有很多事情發生。當你退一步思考時,我的意思是,整個政策環境中存在著需要解決的問題和不確定性,而且華盛頓的政府也可能發生變動,亞歷克斯也強調了這一點。
And if there was a Republican administration, how would they choose to engage? And there's all kinds of conversations on how they think through IRA, sure. But I don't think that they would be any less lenient on the Chinese, and I think they can get more aggressive in the potential trade barriers that our customers are just concerned about. And so they value the certainty of First Solar and looking to derisk their projects as far out as they can go.
如果是共和黨執政,他們會選擇如何參與?當然,關於他們如何看待 IRA 有很多種討論。但我不認為他們會對中國人不那麼寬容,而且我認為他們會在我們的客戶所擔心的潛在貿易壁壘方面採取更積極的措施。因此,他們看重 First Solar 的確定性,並希望盡可能降低專案風險。
The other thing that's still driving some uncertainty in the marketplace is, as you've seen recently with -- on an IP standpoint, especially as the market has transitioned to TOPCon. Jinko has indicated that they have a strong IP position for TOPCon, and they're going to enforce that IP. You've seen Maxeon make statements as well that they've got an IP position around TOPCon that they're also going to enforce. And as you know, there is a significant transition towards TOPCon. So our customers also have to think through freedom to operate with their counterparties around intellectual properties.
另一個仍在推動市場不確定性的因素是,正如您最近看到的那樣——從 IP 的角度來看,尤其是當市場轉向 TOPCon 時。晶科能源表示,他們在 TOPCon 方面擁有強大的智慧財產權,而且他們會加強這項智慧財產權。您已經看到 Maxeon 也發表聲明稱他們在 TOPCon 方面擁有智慧財產權,並且他們將會強制執行。如您所知,我們正在向 TOPCon 進行重大轉變。因此,我們的客戶也必須考慮與交易對手在智慧財產權方面開展業務的自由。
So there's a lot that they have to think through, and there's a lot of uncertainty outside of engaging with First Solar. And so we'll be disciplined and measured in our negotiations. But I would not at all be surprised that as we finish out this year, we'll be somewhere around a 1:1 book-to-bill, which will have 16 gigawatts or so. With our shipment profile, I wouldn't be surprised if our bookings is somewhat in that zip code. And largely, that would fill out our pocket of opportunity in 2027. So we could exit this year with a comfortable backlog that we have right now and potentially have a very solid position going in through 2027 and continuing to think about how we book out through the end of the decade.
所以他們必須仔細考慮很多事情,而且除了與 First Solar 合作之外還存在著許多不確定性。因此,我們在談判中會嚴守紀律、謹慎行事。但我一點也不會感到驚訝,到今年年底,我們的訂單出貨比將達到 1:1 左右,即達到 16 千兆瓦左右。根據我們的貨運情況,如果我們的預訂位於該郵遞區號範圍內,我不會感到驚訝。在很大程度上,這將填補我們在 2027 年的機會。
Operator
Operator
We'll take the next question from Philip Shen, ROTH Capital Partners.
我們將回答來自羅仕證券資本合夥人公司 (ROTH Capital Partners) 的 Philip Shen 提出的下一個問題。
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
First one is on pricing. Great job on the recent bookings, ASPs at $0.32 almost. And can you talk through the dynamics influencing that pricing? You mentioned a bunch of it earlier, Mark, but I'd love to get a feel for how the customer conversations have inflected. Last year, it was very much an oversupply, kind of price decline environment. And recently, a lot of this policy activity has kind of swung back in your favor as it relates to greater UFLPA enforcement or the potential for the 201 bifacial exemption being removed.
第一個是關於定價。最近的預訂做得很好,平均售價接近 0.32 美元。能談談影響定價的因素嗎?馬克,你之前提到了很多,但我很想了解客戶對話是如何變化的。去年,供應嚴重過剩,價格下跌。最近,許多政策活動都朝著對您有利的方向轉變,因為這與加強 UFLPA 執法或取消 201 雙面豁免有關。
Can you just talk through that customer conversation and how that may have inflected recently? And then also, do you expect that pricing momentum to remain steady through '24? Or is there even potential that it could go higher? Or do you think there's a risk that it could go lower?
您能否談談那次與客戶的談話以及最近可能發生的變化?另外,您是否預計定價動能將在 24 年內保持穩定?或者是否還有可能進一步上漲?或者您認為有進一步走低的風險?
The second question here is around module volume that you talked about. There's a customer that can't take delivery of 381 megawatts of product. Our checks on this suggest there could be as much as 1.5 gigawatts floating around. And so how many megawatts do you expect the market to transact in the secondary market, if you will, in '24? So I know it's not your risk ultimately, but you do have to manage it at some level, and your customers ultimately have to deal with it. But -- and you should have protections, but it's something that can be an issue to understand better as well.
第二個問題是關於您所談到的模組體積。有一位客戶無法接收 381 兆瓦的產品。我們的檢查顯示,可能有多達 1.5 千兆瓦的浮動電能。那麼,您預計 24 年二級市場的交易量是多少兆瓦?所以我知道這最終不是你的風險,但你必須在某種程度上管理它,而你的客戶最終必須處理它。但是──你應該採取保護措施,但這也是一個需要更好理解的問題。
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Yes. So let me -- I'll start with your second one and then I'll go back to the first one. Look, the 380 megawatts was to -- think of it almost as a one-off transaction that I think we booked 2, 3 years ago. I'm not sure of the exact time frame. It was for -- and we specifically stated in the prepared remarks, it was for a corporate customer who basically was going to use it for self-generation, self-consumption, right? And ultimately, it was looking potentially not just from -- to potentially leverage it beyond just the raw form of the electricity generation that it would provide.
是的。所以讓我——我將從你的第二個問題開始,然後再回到第一個問題。你看,380兆瓦——幾乎可以把它想像成一筆一次性交易,我想我們兩三年前就預訂了。我不確定具體的時間範圍。它是為——我們在準備好的評論中明確指出,它是為企業客戶提供的,企業客戶基本上是將其用於自發電、自用,對嗎?最終,它所尋求的潛力不只是從——潛在地利用它所提供的電力的原始形式。
That customer has gone into some financial distress and challenges that they're having to deal with. And those megawatts are an obligation to the customer. We will enforce the rights on the contract. We will also work with the customer to recontract that if we -- if that opportunity is available to us. If not, then there's an obligation for them to take delivery and then to pay for that.
該客戶陷入了一些財務困境並需要應對一些挑戰。這些兆瓦是對客戶的義務。我們將執行合約中的權利。如果我們有機會,我們還將與客戶合作重新簽訂合約。如果不是,那麼他們有義務收貨並付款。
The particular project, it is a project that is cited in the state of permitting and I believe has an interconnection. That project asset itself is being marketed right now. And we'll see how successful that is. To the extent that, that transaction does happen, then the modules will go along with it. There'll be an assignment with -- given our consent, and we'll support that type of consent, again with the spirit of honoring -- enforcing rights underneath our contract. So that one is that issue.
這個具體的項目,是一個在許可狀態下引用的項目,我相信它具有相互聯繫。該項目資產本身目前正在推銷中。我們將看到其有多麼成功。如果該交易確實發生,那麼模組也會隨之發生。我們會在我們同意的情況下進行任務分配,並且我們會支持這種同意,同樣本著尊重的精神,執行我們合約中的權利。這就是那個問題。
Phil, to the other question, because I know you've asked this a couple of times, about markets and a product that's out in the secondary market, there are customers who are challenged right now from a development standpoint as it relates to interconnection additions. It's something that you are very well aware of. Our contracts and our customers are aware of the fact that they need to take delivery of those modules. And when I'm talking about this, this is hundreds of megawatts. This is not a lot of volume in 2024.
菲爾,對於另一個問題,因為我知道你已經問過幾次了,關於市場和二級市場上的產品,從開發的角度來看,有些客戶現在面臨著與互連增加相關的挑戰。這是您非常清楚的事情。我們的合約和客戶都知道他們需要接收這些模組。當我談論這個的時候,這是數百兆瓦。對於 2024 年來說,這個數字並不算多。
Their option is to find a warehouse and to put it into a warehouse or potentially, they could look to try to transact with a third party. We'll try to find the right possible outcome with our customers. We always have worked in the spirit of let's figure out a solution that can work. So I'm aware of that.
他們的選擇是找到一個倉庫並將其放入倉庫,或者他們可以嘗試與第三方進行交易。我們將盡力與客戶一起找到正確的結果。我們始終本著「讓我們找到可行的解決方案」的精神開展工作。所以我知道這個。
I don't believe it will have any significant impact on our ability to continue to book any volumes that may be available in 2024 given scheduled movements and those types of things. But we'll have to keep an eye on it. But I also -- I just want to make sure that the one deal that we talked about was unique in its circumstances and isn't necessarily reflective of maybe the other opportunities that you're hearing about in the marketplace.
考慮到預定的運輸計劃和諸如此類的事情,我認為這不會對我們繼續預訂 2024 年可能提供的任何數量的貨物的能力產生任何重大影響。但我們必須密切注意。但我也——我只是想確保我們談論的一項交易在其情況下是獨一無二的,並不一定反映您在市場上聽到的其他機會。
As it relates to pricing and ASP and momentum, policies clearly -- toggles back and forth and trends up and down. And right now, I think there is a lot of uncertainty from that standpoint. But the other thing I want to continue to try to emphasize is the value of certainty of First Solar and the value of our relationship and our value proposition.
由於它與定價、ASP 和勢頭有關,政策顯然來回切換、趨勢上下波動。而現在,我認為從這個角度來看存在著許多不確定性。但我想繼續強調的另一件事是 First Solar 的確定性的價值以及我們的關係和價值主張的價值。
I was having a conversation with one of our largest partners just last week, and they couldn't be happier to be partnering with First Solar. And it's -- [the absolutes] we're talking about, the strength of the technology, the certainty of First Solar, but it also gets into the responsible solar aspects as well and our carbon footprint and our water usage and our energy payback and our circular economy. And when you -- that's inherent to their value proposition that they're selling to their contracted offtake customers like data centers, who value that as well.
就在上週,我與我們最大的合作夥伴之一進行了交談,他們非常高興能與 First Solar 合作。而且,我們談論的是[絕對的]技術實力、First Solar的確定性,但它也涉及負責任的太陽能方面以及我們的碳足跡、我們的用水量、我們的能源回報和我們的循環經濟。而當你 — — 這是他們向合約承購客戶(如資料中心)銷售的價值主張所固有的,而資料中心也同樣重視這一點。
This work that we're doing around economic impact, no different than that. I mean creating American jobs, I mean, being closely tethered to that, supporting and investing back into America and American manufacturing, American technology, all that plays to our strength. And so yes, policy environment is helpful right now. But these other attributes are almost equally as important.
我們圍繞經濟影響所做的工作與此沒有什麼不同。我的意思是創造美國就業機會,我的意思是與之緊密相關,支持和投資美國和美國製造業,美國技術,所有這些都能發揮我們的優勢。是的,目前的政策環境是有幫助的。但這些其他屬性幾乎同樣重要。
And our partner said, basically, look, I know I may have to pay a little bit more for First Solar. But when I look at the brand and the certainty and the value proposition that they are creating, more than happy to do that. And this is a counterparty that is almost 80-plus percent, 100% sole-sourced into First Solar, and we've got a deep relationship in multi-gigawatts of opportunities still in front of us. And I don't see this as a unique one-off. This is generally the engagement and conversations that we're having with our customers.
我們的合作夥伴說,基本上,看,我知道我可能需要為 First Solar 支付更多一點的費用。但當我看到這個品牌以及他們所創造的確定性和價值主張時,我非常樂意這樣做。這是 First Solar 幾乎 80% 以上的獨家合作夥伴,而且我們在數千兆瓦的機會上仍然保持著深厚的合作關係。我並不認為這是一個獨特的案例。這通常是我們與客戶的互動和對話。
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
And Phil, you mentioned probably the pricing would stay steady. There's definitely some elasticity of demand related to pricing, which is why we want to be disciplined and why the position of strength that we put ourselves in is so important. We have no need to go out and chase deals.
菲爾,您提到價格可能會保持穩定。定價方面的需求肯定存在彈性,這就是為什麼我們要嚴守紀律,以及為什麼我們將自己置於強勢地位如此重要。我們沒必要出去追逐交易。
We -- as I mentioned on the call, we could book nothing between now and the end of the year and still find ourselves 2 years forward sold out. If there is uncertainty in the market, we can afford to step back. And therefore, we can manage to some degree some of that price erosion.
正如我在電話中提到的那樣,從現在到年底,我們無法進行任何預訂,但兩年後的預訂仍然已售罄。如果市場存在不確定性,我們可以撤退。因此,我們可以在一定程度上控制價格下滑。
So we'll continue to work with people that value the attributes that Mark brings. And therefore, I think you'll see slower bookings -- lower pace of bookings at pricing that we find acceptable in the long term. Clearly, if we wanted to sell a lot more and drop pricing, that would happen, but that's not the strategy.
因此,我們將繼續與重視馬克的品質的人合作。因此,我認為您會看到預訂速度變慢——以我們認為長期可以接受的價格預訂的速度會降低。顯然,如果我們想銷售更多產品並降低價格,那就會發生,但這不是我們的策略。
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Yes. And I think as we just tether back to, look, if we can achieve a 1:1 book-to-bill this year, largely sell through our open position in 2027, I think it would be a great result and position the company very well as we exit 2024.
是的。而且我認為,如果我們今年能夠實現 1:1 的訂單出貨比,並在 2027 年基本銷售完我們的未平倉頭寸,那麼我認為這將是一個很好的結果,並且在我們退出 2024 年時將為公司帶來非常好的地位。
Operator
Operator
And everyone, that is all the time we have for questions today. This does conclude today's conference. We would like to thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.
各位,今天我們回答問題的時間就到此為止。今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。