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Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to First Solar's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This call is being webcast live on the Investors section of First Solar's website at investor.firstsolar.com. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.
大家下午好,歡迎參加 First Solar 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。此次電話會議正在 First Solar 網站investor.firstsolar.com 的投資者部分進行網絡直播。 (操作員說明)作為提醒,今天的通話正在錄音中。
I would now like to turn the call over to Richard Romero from First Solar Investor Relations. Richard, you may begin.
我現在想將電話轉給 First Solar 投資者關係部的 Richard Romero。理查德,你可以開始了。
Richard Romero
Richard Romero
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. Today, the company issued a press release announcing a second quarter 2022 financial results. A copy of the press release and associated presentation are available on First Solar's website at investor.firstsolar.com.
下午好,感謝您加入我們。今天,該公司發布了一份新聞稿,宣布了 2022 年第二季度的財務業績。新聞稿和相關演示文稿的副本可在 First Solar 的網站investor.firstsolar.com 上獲得。
With me today are Mark Widmar, Chief Executive Officer; and Alex Bradley, Chief Financial Officer. Mark will begin by providing a business and technology update. Alex will then discuss our financial results for the quarter, provide a guidance update and also provide some insight into our pricing strategy and our vision for gross margin expansion. Mark will then provide perspective on the domestic and international policy environment. Following their remarks, we will open the call for questions.
今天和我在一起的是首席執行官 Mark Widmar;和首席財務官亞歷克斯布拉德利。 Mark 將首先提供業務和技術更新。然後,亞歷克斯將討論我們本季度的財務業績,提供指導更新,並提供一些關於我們的定價策略和毛利率擴張願景的見解。馬克隨後將提供有關國內和國際政策環境的觀點。在他們的發言之後,我們將開始提問。
Please note, this call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statements contained in today's press release and presentation for a more complete description.
請注意,本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述,這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天的新聞稿和演示文稿中包含的安全港聲明,以獲得更完整的描述。
It is now my pleasure to introduce Mark Widmar, Chief Executive Officer. Mark?
現在我很高興介紹首席執行官 Mark Widmar。標記?
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Thank you, Richard. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today. To begin, we are pleased with our second quarter results, including earnings per share of $0.52. This result was benefited by the previously announced closing of the sale of our project development platform in Japan, partially offset by an impairment of the legacy system business project in Chile, which will be discussed later during the call.
謝謝你,理查德。下午好,感謝您今天加入我們。首先,我們對第二季度的業績感到滿意,包括每股 0.52 美元的收益。這一結果得益於先前宣布的我們在日本的項目開發平台的銷售結束,部分被智利遺留系統業務項目的減值所抵消,這將在電話會議稍後討論。
We've also continued our booking momentum, further strengthening our backlog of future expected deliveries, which now stands at a record 44.3 gigawatts. The 10.4 gigawatts of new bookings since our prior earnings call in April are mostly for deliveries in 2024 to 2026 timeframe and have a base ASP, excluding adjusters of $0.301. These new deals bring our total year-to-date bookings to 27.1 gigawatts. From an ASP perspective, we are encouraged by the pricing trajectory of our bookings as we continue to transact for deliveries as far out as 2026. On an overall portfolio basis, the profile of our annual base contracted ASPs remained effectively flat from 2022 through 2025 with the potential to grow with the application of technology, sales freight and commodity price adjusters applicable to many of these bookings.
我們還繼續保持預訂勢頭,進一步加強了我們未來預期交付的積壓,目前達到創紀錄的 44.3 吉瓦。自我們 4 月份的上一次財報電話會議以來,新預訂的 10.4 吉瓦主要用於 2024 年至 2026 年時間範圍內的交付,並且具有基本 ASP,不包括 0.301 美元的調整器。這些新交易使我們年初至今的總預訂量達到 27.1 吉瓦。從 ASP 的角度來看,我們對預訂的定價軌跡感到鼓舞,因為我們將繼續進行最遠至 2026 年的交付交易。在整體投資組合的基礎上,我們的年度基礎合同 ASP 從 2022 年到 2025 年基本持平,隨著技術、銷售運費和商品價格調整器的應用而增長的潛力適用於這些預訂中的許多。
Firstly, as it relates to technology adjusters, if we are able to realize the achievements within our technology road map, the ASP has potentially increased to reflect the value associated with the enhanced product and energy profile. As of June 30, we had approximately 20.5 gigawatts of contracted volume with these adjusters, which, if realized, could result in additional revenue of up to approximately $0.4 billion or approximately $0.02 per watt, the majority of which would be recognized in 2024 and 2025.
首先,由於它與技術調整者有關,如果我們能夠在我們的技術路線圖中實現成就,ASP 可能會增加以反映與增強的產品和能源配置相關的價值。截至 6 月 30 日,我們與這些調節器的合同量約為 20.5 吉瓦,如果實現,可能會帶來高達約 4 億美元或每瓦約 0.02 美元的額外收入,其中大部分將在 2024 年和 2025 年確認.
As previously discussed, this amount does not include potential adjustments for the ultimate module bin delivered to the customer, which may adjust the ASP under the sales contract upwards or downwards or for those contracts in the United States that include sharing related to potential upside for U.S. main modules under the extension of the investment tax credit.
如前所述,此金額不包括對交付給客戶的最終模塊箱的潛在調整,這可能會向上或向下調整銷售合同下的平均售價,或者對於那些包括與美國潛在上行空間相關的共享的美國合同的平均售價。投資稅收抵免擴展下的主要模塊。
Secondly, the ASP may increase to offset incremental costs as it relates to sales freight. Thirdly, the ASP has also potentially increased to offset incremental costs as it relates to aluminum.
其次,ASP 可能會增加以抵消與銷售運費相關的增量成本。第三,平均售價也有可能增加,以抵消與鋁相關的增量成本。
With regards to our Series 7 product to be produced at our new factories in Ohio and India, featuring a glass area of approximately 14% larger than our Series 6 Plus modules and utilizing the steel as opposed to aluminum frame, we have also begun to introduce adjusters to offset potential increased steel costs.
關於我們將在俄亥俄州和印度的新工廠生產的 Series 7 產品,其玻璃面積比我們的 Series 6 Plus 模塊大約 14%,並且使用鋼而不是鋁框架,我們也開始引入調節器以抵消潛在增加的鋼鐵成本。
As a reminder, not every recent contract includes every adjuster described here. To the extent that such adjusters are not included in the recent booked contract, we believe the baseline ASP reflects an appropriate risk/reward profile. For example, some of these contracts have delivery terms where the customer is responsible for the cost of sales freight from the factory gate.
提醒一下,並非最近的每份合同都包含此處描述的每個理算人。如果此類調整者未包含在最近的預訂合同中,我們認為基準平均售價反映了適當的風險/回報情況。例如,其中一些合同有交貨條款,其中客戶負責從工廠門口的銷售運費成本。
In summary, we continue to leverage our value proposition of providing our customer and partners with long-term supply certainty, lower political and compliance risk and access to our best available technology. These critical points of differentiation, together with our differentiated CadTel technology, have allowed us to continue to expand our record backlog and an overall pricing that we believe is both encouraging and competitive and with appropriate risk mitigation.
總之,我們繼續利用我們的價值主張,為我們的客戶和合作夥伴提供長期供應確定性、降低政治和合規風險以及獲得我們最好的可用技術。這些差異化的關鍵點,連同我們差異化的 CadTel 技術,使我們能夠繼續擴大我們的記錄積壓和我們認為既令人鼓舞又具有競爭力的整體定價,並適當地緩解風險。
Turning to Slide 3. I'd like to review our highlights and some updates from our second quarter. Our manufacturing facilities produced 2.2 gigawatts of modules in Q2. The result was benefited by higher throughput due to faster-than-expected upgrades of certain equipment at our Vietnam manufacturing facilities.
轉到幻燈片 3。我想回顧一下我們第二季度的亮點和一些更新。我們的製造設施在第二季度生產了 2.2 吉瓦的模塊。由於我們越南製造工廠的某些設備的升級速度快於預期,該結果受益於更高的吞吐量。
As previously disclosed, we have completed the sale of our project development platform in Japan. As we seek to divest our remaining power plant assets, we are evaluating potential buyers for our Luz del Norte project in Chile. Alex will discuss the timing and financial impact of this potential transaction.
如先前所披露,我們已完成在日本的項目開發平台的出售。在我們尋求剝離我們剩餘的發電廠資產時,我們正在為我們在智利的 Luz del Norte 項目評估潛在買家。 Alex 將討論這一潛在交易的時間安排和財務影響。
Construction of our third manufacturing facility in Ohio and our first manufacturing facility in India remains on schedule. To date, we have seen increased -- increases associated with steel and freight costs. Looking forward, as we continue to explore further manufacturing expansion opportunities, inflationary pressures on building equipment and freight costs are expected to remain a concern.
我們在俄亥俄州的第三家製造工廠和在印度的第一家製造工廠的建設仍在按計劃進行。迄今為止,我們已經看到與鋼鐵和貨運成本相關的增長。展望未來,隨著我們繼續探索進一步的製造業擴張機會,建築設備和貨運成本的通脹壓力預計仍將是一個令人擔憂的問題。
Finally, we've entered into a $500 million debt facility with our new -- for our new manufacturing facility in India, with the first disbursement expected in the third quarter.
最後,我們已經與我們在印度的新製造工廠簽訂了 5 億美元的債務融資,預計將在第三季度首次支付。
Before turning to shipments, I would like to say a word about the current sales freight environment. While there are reports that suggest supply chains are beginning to trend towards normalization on a macro basis, global sales freight conditions remain challenging. Although spot rates for ocean freight have fallen quarter-over-quarter, these benefits were partially offset by increased fuel costs. In addition, we are approaching the peak period in terms of delivery of goods ahead of the year-end holiday season, which represents a potential headwind that may render the recent easing in the shipping rates a temporary phenomenon.
談出貨前,先說一下目前的銷售貨運環境。儘管有報導表明供應鏈在宏觀基礎上開始趨於正常化,但全球銷售貨運狀況仍然充滿挑戰。儘管海運的即期運費環比下降,但這些收益部分被燃料成本增加所抵消。此外,我們正接近年終假期前的貨物交付高峰期,這代表了潛在的不利因素,可能使近期航運費率的放鬆成為暫時現象。
From a logistics perspective, we are still experiencing the impact of port congestion. In the United States, after a brief reprieve, we have seen a continuous buildup of congestion on the East Coast as some shippers divert away from the West Coast port to avoid the potential impacts of ongoing labor negotiations.
從物流的角度來看,我們仍在經歷港口擁堵的影響。在美國,經過短暫的緩解後,我們看到東海岸的擁堵持續加劇,因為一些托運人從西海岸港口轉移,以避免正在進行的勞資談判的潛在影響。
For example, the queue of ships looking to berth at the Port of Savannah has recently increased to 30 vessels, up from 0 in the previous quarter. While transit times from Asia to the United States have improved, they remain well above the prepandemic averages. In fact, combined with challenges such as port congestion and blank sailings, has led to an estimated 12% reduction in global shipping capacity.
例如,尋找停泊在薩凡納港的船舶隊列最近從上一季度的 0 艘增加到 30 艘。雖然從亞洲到美國的運輸時間有所改善,但仍遠高於大流行前的平均水平。事實上,再加上港口擁堵和空運等挑戰,導致全球航運能力估計減少了 12%。
Notwithstanding these challenges, we continue to execute on our strategy of employing freight risk-sharing mechanisms in our customer contracts, with nearly all of our recent bookings, either featuring contractual adjusters designed to offset incremental sales freight cost. We're allocating all ocean freight responsibility to the customer, in either case mitigating gross margin erosion.
儘管存在這些挑戰,我們繼續執行我們在客戶合同中採用貨運風險分擔機制的戰略,我們最近的幾乎所有預訂都包含旨在抵消增加的銷售運費成本的合同調整器。我們將所有海運責任分配給客戶,在任何一種情況下都可以減輕毛利率的侵蝕。
As of today, we have 32.7 gigawatts of contracts in our backlog that with either sales freight coverage or no sales freight exposure. As you may expect, contracts where customers take on responsibility for the transport have lower ASP than those where we are responsible for shipping. By way of example, one such contract, which is included in the revenue from contracts from customers' footnote in the quarter's 10-Q, is a 2.3 gigawatt sale to a highly valued long-term partner. This volume targeted for low-bid inventory is contracted to supply from our international factories, with the customer being responsible for transportation, which is currently estimated to be $0.04 to $0.05 per watt. Therefore, the ASP for this transaction is lower than the average of the ASP for other sales contract entered into in the period.
截至今天,我們有 32.7 吉瓦的合同在我們的積壓中,要么有銷售運費,要么沒有銷售運費。如您所料,客戶承擔運輸責任的合同的平均售價低於我們負責運輸的合同。例如,本季度 10-Q 客戶腳註合同收入中包含的一份此類合同是向一個高價值的長期合作夥伴出售 2.3 吉瓦的電力。以低價庫存為目標的這一數量與我們的國際工廠簽訂了合同,由客戶負責運輸,目前估計為每瓦 0.04 至 0.05 美元。因此,本次交易的平均售價低於期內簽訂的其他銷售合同的平均售價。
Note: 4.9 gigawatts of the 11.9 gigawatts, increase in contracts from customers for future sales, includes -- included in the revenue from contracts from customers' footnote in this quarter's 10-Q requires that customers take on the responsibility for shipping. Had First Solar had the shipping responsibility, we estimate that the implied ASP of this 10 -- 11.9 gigawatts volume increase would have risen by approximately $0.02 per watt.
注:11.9 吉瓦中的 4.9 吉瓦,來自客戶未來銷售合同的增加,包括 - 包含在本季度 10-Q 中客戶腳註的合同收入中,要求客戶承擔運輸責任。如果 First Solar 承擔運輸責任,我們估計這 10 - 11.9 吉瓦的銷量增長的隱含平均售價將上漲約 0.02 美元/瓦。
Of note, we expect the majority of our India factory output to be contracted on an ex works basis, with the customer picking up modules at the factory gates and assuming all transportation costs. Accordingly, we believe headline ASPs in India will be lower than in other markets where we include an assumption of sales freight within the ASP. That said, Alex will address why we expect gross profit per watt for the India factory to be equal or higher than the fleet later in the call.
值得注意的是,我們預計印度工廠的大部分產量將在出廠時簽訂,客戶在工廠門口取貨並承擔所有運輸成本。因此,我們認為印度的整體平均售價將低於我們在平均售價中包含銷售運費假設的其他市場。也就是說,亞歷克斯將在電話會議後期解釋為什麼我們預計印度工廠的每瓦毛利潤等於或高於機隊。
Turning to Slide 4. We address our recent shipments. As just mentioned, we booked 10.4 gigawatts since the April earnings call. With respect to future shipments after accounting for shipments in the quarter of approximately 2.5 gigawatts, which is in line with our expectation, our total contracted to-date backlog is 44.3 gigawatts.
轉到幻燈片 4。我們解決了我們最近的發貨問題。如前所述,自 4 月財報電話會議以來,我們預訂了 10.4 吉瓦。考慮到本季度約 2.5 吉瓦的出貨量(符合我們的預期)後的未來出貨量,我們迄今為止的合同總積壓為 44.3 吉瓦。
We are sold out for 2022 and '23 as of April's earnings call and now sold out for 2024, excluding our new India manufacturing facility. We have 12 gigawatts for planned deliveries, excluding India, in 2025 and have 2.6 gigawatts of planned deliveries in 2026 and beyond.
截至 4 月的財報電話會議,我們 2022 年和 23 年的銷售已售罄,現在 2024 年的銷售已售罄,不包括我們新的印度製造工廠。我們計劃在 2025 年交付 12 吉瓦(不包括印度),並在 2026 年及以後計劃交付 2.6 吉瓦。
As it relates to our India factory, we have seen significant near- and longer-term demand from domestic customers as we anticipate entering into first contracts for the output of this factory within the coming months. Under our bookings policy, signed contracts in India will not be recognized as bookings until we have received full security against the offtake. As such, deals signed but not fully secured will be reflected with confirmed but not booked portion of our pipeline graph in the earnings presentation.
由於它與我們的印度工廠有關,我們看到國內客戶的近期和長期需求很大,因為我們預計在未來幾個月內就該工廠的產量簽訂第一份合同。根據我們的預訂政策,在我們收到完全的承購擔保之前,在印度簽署的合同不會被視為預訂。因此,已簽署但未完全擔保的交易將在收益報告中反映在我們管道圖中已確認但未預訂的部分。
The 10.4 gigawatts booked since April's earnings call include an order for 2.4 gigawatts of modules of one of the largest -- one of our largest standing customers, U.S. headquarter, Intersect Power, announced earlier today. These modules are scheduled for delivery in 2025 to 2026, further expanding the horizon for our backlog.
自 4 月財報電話會議以來預訂的 10.4 吉瓦包括訂購最大的模塊之一的 2.4 吉瓦模塊 - 我們最大的常任客戶之一,美國總部 Intersect Power,今天早些時候宣布。這些模塊計劃於 2025 年至 2026 年交付,進一步擴大了我們積壓的範圍。
This booking is reflective of a broader trend among long-standing U.S.-based customers to strengthen their commitment to First Solar's CadTel thin film technology as they seek long-term pricing security, supply certainty and value for their project pipeline.
此次預訂反映了美國長期客戶在尋求長期定價安全性、供應確定性和項目管道價值時加強對 First Solar 的 CadTel 薄膜技術的承諾的更廣泛趨勢。
We are seeing greater geographical diversity in our bookings and among customers negotiating long-term framework supply agreements. Notably, European developers are increasingly recognizing the risk of relying on supply chains that are concentrated in China.
我們在預訂和談判長期框架供應協議的客戶中看到了更大的地域多樣性。值得注意的是,歐洲開發商越來越認識到依賴集中在中國的供應鏈的風險。
As just one example, the French developer, Akuo, which has placed an order for 500 megawatts for its project portfolio in the U.S. and in Europe. Our bookings momentum demonstrates the growing recognition of the risk of pursuing a solar at any cost strategy. Developers that have built excessive dependencies on China state-subsidized solar industry are grappling with an increasing volatile pricing and supply environment. A prime example of this increased risk profile is a recently reported lawsuit filed against a top-tier Chinese solar manufacturer, alleging breached delivery obligations, fraud, fraudulent actions and breached agreements related to product traceability information.
舉個例子,法國開發商 Akuo 為其在美國和歐洲的項目組合訂購了 500 兆瓦。我們的預訂勢頭表明,人們越來越認識到不惜一切代價追求太陽能戰略的風險。過度依賴中國政府補貼太陽能產業的開發商正在努力應對日益波動的定價和供應環境。這種風險增加的一個典型例子是最近報導的一起針對中國頂級太陽能製造商的訴訟,指控其違反交付義務、欺詐、欺詐行為以及違反與產品可追溯性信息相關的協議。
This direct contrast with the experience of our customers who have benefited from our emphasis on durable partnerships has enabled long-term growth and our ability to stand behind our contracts and deliver on our commitments. Our customers have also benefited from an industry-leading approach to sustainability, transparency and traceability.
這與受益於我們對持久合作夥伴關係的重視的客戶的體驗形成了直接對比,這使我們能夠實現長期增長以及我們支持合同和兌現承諾的能力。我們的客戶還受益於行業領先的可持續性、透明度和可追溯性方法。
We believe that our focus on long-term partnerships and our focus on basing of an enduring strategic customer that seeks to partner with First Solar for a large-scale multiyear procurements have been key drivers of our success, and it enabled a solid foundation for growth. We also believe that these strategies set us up for enduring success, differentiating ourselves from the highly volatile transactional environment that some of our competitors may operate in and providing longer-term stability and visibility, not just for our customers, but for our shareholders.
我們相信,我們對長期合作夥伴關係的關注以及我們對尋求與 First Solar 合作進行大規模多年採購的持久戰略客戶的關注是我們成功的關鍵驅動力,它為增長奠定了堅實的基礎.我們還相信,這些戰略為我們奠定了持久成功的基礎,使我們有別於我們的一些競爭對手可能經營的高度不穩定的交易環境,並提供了長期的穩定性和可見性,不僅為我們的客戶,而且為我們的股東。
As reflected on Slide 5, our pipeline of potential bookings remain robust. Even at the year-to-date bookings of 27.1 gigawatts, we retain long-term total bookings opportunities of 52.5 gigawatts. Our 17.8 gigawatts of mid- to late-stage opportunities include 9.7 gigawatts in North America, 3.9 gigawatts in India and 4.2 gigawatts in the EU.
正如幻燈片 5 所反映的,我們的潛在預訂渠道仍然強勁。即使年初至今的預訂量為 27.1 吉瓦,我們仍保留 52.5 吉瓦的長期總預訂機會。我們 17.8 吉瓦的中後期機會包括北美的 9.7 吉瓦、印度的 3.9 吉瓦和歐盟的 4.2 吉瓦。
In India, we continue to see meaningful potential as it relates to demand from domestic developers, foreign owned IPPs operating in the country and the Indian government's efforts to boost demand certainty for domestic manufacturers. Similarly in Europe, we are seeing growing demand where geopolitics and the war in Ukraine have led to an urgent effort to deploy more renewables as the EU works to diversify its energy portfolio.
在印度,我們繼續看到有意義的潛力,因為這與國內開發商、在該國運營的外資獨立發電商的需求以及印度政府為提高國內製造商的需求確定性所做的努力有關。同樣,在歐洲,隨著歐盟努力使其能源組合多樣化,地緣政治和烏克蘭戰爭導致緊急部署更多可再生能源的需求不斷增長。
Turning to technology. We are pleased with the progression of our current road map. As previously stated, our road map provides us with a high level of optionality, allowing us to pursue enhancements to our product design and energy profile as well as the path to potentially offer a true next-generation solar module for the residential market.
轉向技術。我們對當前路線圖的進展感到滿意。如前所述,我們的路線圖為我們提供了高度的選擇餘地,使我們能夠改進我們的產品設計和能源配置,以及為住宅市場提供真正的下一代太陽能電池組件的途徑。
On the last earnings call, we had announced that our R&D teams are continuing to make progress on developing the bifacial attributes of our CadTel semiconductor as we reaffirm the commercial, financial and operational thesis of the bifacial product. As our bifacial program evolves from the research level to large preproduction runs, our R&D team is working to achieve field validation, including operational and reliability data. This is necessary to ensure a viable path to large-scale commercial manufacturing.
在上次財報電話會議上,我們宣布我們的研發團隊將繼續在開發我們的 CadTel 半導體的雙面屬性方面取得進展,因為我們重申了雙面產品的商業、財務和運營論點。隨著我們的雙面項目從研究水平發展到大型試生產運行,我們的研發團隊正在努力實現現場驗證,包括操作和可靠性數據。這對於確保大規模商業製造的可行途徑是必要的。
In parallel, we are working to stand up the supply chain necessary to help support the eventual introduction of a bifacial CadTel module. While we expect manufacturing line modifications to be minor, a bifacial CadTel module will have different material requirements necessitating adjustments to our supply chain.
與此同時,我們正在努力建立必要的供應鏈,以幫助支持最終推出雙面 CadTel 模塊。雖然我們預計生產線的修改會很小,但雙面 CadTel 模塊將有不同的材料要求,需要對我們的供應鏈進行調整。
I'll now turn the call over to Alex, who will discuss Q2 results.
我現在將電話轉給 Alex,他將討論第二季度的結果。
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Thanks, Mark. Before reviewing our Q2 results, on Slide 6, I'd like to provide an overview of 2 events, which impact both this quarter's results as well as our full year outlook. Both relate to our legacy systems business and impact our non-module or other business segment.
謝謝,馬克。在回顧我們的第二季度業績之前,在幻燈片 6 上,我想概述兩個事件,這兩個事件都會影響本季度的業績以及我們的全年展望。兩者都與我們的遺留系統業務有關,並影響我們的非模塊或其他業務部門。
The first is the recently completed sale of our Japanese project development platform and the pending sale of our Japanese O&M platform. This was first discussed in our Q4 2021 earnings and guidance call. In late 2021, we received an unsolicited offer to acquire our Japanese project development and O&M platforms. And our full year 2022 guidance assumed a gain on the sale of these businesses of $270 million to $290 million.
首先是我們最近完成的日本項目開發平台的出售和我們日本運維平台的待售。這在我們的 2021 年第四季度收益和指導電話會議中首次討論。 2021 年底,我們收到了一份主動要約,以收購我們的日本項目開發和運維平台。我們的 2022 年全年指導假設出售這些業務的收益為 2.7 億美元至 2.9 億美元。
On our Q1 2020 earnings call in April, we indicated that negotiations towards the sale were progressing well. In May of this year, we entered into definitive agreements to sell these businesses to PAG Real Assets, subject to customary closing conditions.
在 4 月份的 2020 年第一季度財報電話會議上,我們表示出售談判進展順利。今年 5 月,我們簽訂了最終協議,將這些業務出售給 PAG Real Assets,但須符合慣例成交條件。
As previously disclosed and mentioned by Mark earlier in the call, in June, the conditions related to the sale of the project development platform were met. And accordingly, we closed the sale of that business for gross proceeds of JPY 66 billion, including a gain on sale of JPY 33 billion. These results were in line with the assumptions included in our full year guidance. However, due to the sudden and significant weakening of the Japanese yen relative to the U.S. dollar that has taken place in 2022 largely as a function of the contrast between the Bank of Japan's continued commitment to economic stimulus and the tightening of U.S. monetary policy, the U.S. dollar gain on sale of $245 million was $35 million lower than the midpoint of our previous forecast.
正如馬克早些時候在電話會議中披露和提到的那樣,6 月份,與出售項目開發平台相關的條件得到滿足。因此,我們以 660 億日元的總收益完成了該業務的出售,其中包括 330 億日元的出售收益。這些結果與我們全年指導中包含的假設一致。然而,由於日本央行繼續致力於經濟刺激措施與美國收緊貨幣政策之間的反差,導致 2022 年日元兌美元突然大幅貶值, 2.45 億美元的銷售收益比我們之前預測的中點低 3500 萬美元。
From a cash perspective, we received net cash proceeds in Q2 of [$262] million with an additional [$164] million forecasted to be received within the calendar year. And note, the remaining conditions precedent to close the sale of the Japan O&M platform, including regulatory approvals, receipt of third-party consents and other customary closing conditions, are expected to be met in the second half of 2022.
從現金的角度來看,我們在第二季度收到了 [2.62 億美元] 的淨現金收益,預計將在日曆年內收到額外的 [1.64 億美元]。請注意,完成日本 O&M 平台出售的剩余先決條件,包括監管部門批准、收到第三方同意和其他慣例成交條件,預計將在 2022 年下半年得到滿足。
The second event impacting both Q2 results and full year guidance relates to our 141-megawatt Luz del Norte project located in Chile. As disclosed since last year's second quarter 10-Q filing, we've continued to evaluate whether to hold or pursue a sale of the project. We also noted that should we be unable to recover our net carrying value in the project, any future sale could result in an impairment charge. Given that no decision had been made with regards to a sale, no impact from any potential sale was included in our 2022 guidance.
第二個影響第二季度業績和全年指導的事件與我們位於智利的 141 兆瓦 Luz del Norte 項目有關。正如自去年第二季度提交 10-Q 文件以來所披露的那樣,我們一直在評估是否持有或尋求出售該項目。我們還注意到,如果我們無法收回項目的賬面淨值,任何未來的銷售都可能導致減值費用。鑑於尚未就出售做出任何決定,我們的 2022 年指導中未包含任何潛在出售的影響。
In cooperation with the project lenders, we've recently begun a sale process, and in Q2, received multiple nonbinding bids to acquire the Luz del Norte project. Based on analysis of these bids, in Q2, we recorded a pretax impairment in cost of sales of $58 million and additional tax expense of $23 million associated with the Luz del Norte project.
通過與項目貸方合作,我們最近開始了銷售流程,並在第二季度收到了多個非約束性投標以收購 Luz del Norte 項目。根據對這些投標的分析,在第二季度,我們記錄了與 Luz del Norte 項目相關的 5800 萬美元的銷售成本稅前減值和 2300 萬美元的額外稅收支出。
As it relates to the full year, assuming a sale is completed later this year, in line with the bids received to date, we expect revenue of $150 million to $200 million from the sale, a reduction in gross profit of $40 million to $50 million, including the Q2 impairment net of future proceeds from the sale, a $30 million to $35 million benefit to nonoperating income from debt forgiveness and reduced interest expense, and $30 million to $40 million of tax expense due to the generation of net operating losses, which no future benefit we received and the jurisdictional mix of the income amongst our Chilean entities.
由於與全年相關,假設今年晚些時候完成銷售,根據迄今為止收到的投標,我們預計銷售收入為 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元,毛利潤減少 4000 萬美元至 5000 萬美元,包括扣除未來出售收益後的第二季度減值、3,000 萬至 3,500 萬美元的債務免除和利息支出減少帶來的非營業收入收益,以及因產生淨經營虧損而產生的 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元的稅收支出,其中我們在智利實體中沒有獲得未來收益以及收入的管轄權組合。
The total net impact from the expected sale of Luz del Norte, which was not previously assumed in our guidance for the year, is a $10 million to $15 million loss before taxes and a $40 million to $55 million loss on a post-tax basis, equivalent to an implied loss per share of $0.38 to $0.52. Note that given the early stages of the sale process and uncertainty around the ultimate structuring of any potential sale, although we believe the forecasted range for revenue, pretax losses, tax expense and after-tax losses to be appropriate, there remains significant uncertainty related to the impact of the gross profit and nonoperating income lines of the P&L.
預計出售 Luz del Norte 的總淨影響是我們之前在今年的指導中沒有假設的,即稅前虧損 1000 萬美元至 1500 萬美元,稅後虧損 4000 萬美元至 5500 萬美元,相當於每股隱含虧損 0.38 美元至 0.52 美元。請注意,鑑於銷售過程的早期階段以及任何潛在銷售的最終結構的不確定性,儘管我們認為收入、稅前虧損、稅費和稅後虧損的預測範圍是適當的,但仍存在與以下相關的重大不確定性損益表的毛利和營業外收入線的影響。
With this background, starting on Slide 7, I'll cover the income statement highlights for the second quarter. Net sales in Q2 were $621 million, an increase of $254 million compared to the prior quarter. On a segment basis, our module segment revenue in Q2 was $607 million compared to $355 million in the prior quarter. The increase in net sales was primarily driven by higher module volumes sold and also benefited by sales freight recoveries.
在此背景下,從幻燈片 7 開始,我將介紹第二季度的損益表亮點。第二季度的淨銷售額為 6.21 億美元,與上一季度相比增加了 2.54 億美元。從細分市場來看,我們第二季度的模塊業務收入為 6.07 億美元,而上一季度為 3.55 億美元。淨銷售額的增長主要是由於銷售的組件數量增加,並且還受益於銷售運費的恢復。
Gross margin was negative 4% in Q2 compared to positive 3% in the prior quarter, primarily driven by the impairment of the Luz del Norte project, which impacted gross margin by 9 percentage points. Q2 module segment gross margin of 5%, up from 3% in Q1, was positively impacted by increased volumes sold. Additionally, sales freight included in our cost of sales reduced module segment gross margin by 16 percentage points in Q2 compared to 14 percentage points in the prior quarter.
第二季度毛利率為負 4%,而上一季度為正 3%,主要是由於 Luz del Norte 項目的減值影響毛利率達 9 個百分點。第二季度組件部門毛利率為 5%,高於第一季度的 3%,受到銷量增加的積極影響。此外,我們的銷售成本中包含的銷售運費在第二季度使模塊部門的毛利率下降了 16 個百分點,而上一季度為 14 個百分點。
SG&A and R&D expenses totaled $64 million in the second quarter, unchanged from the prior quarter. Production startup, which is included in operating expenses, totaled $13 million in the second quarter, an increase of $6 million compared to the prior quarter, driven by increased startup costs associated with our third Ohio factory.
第二季度的 SG&A 和研發費用總計 6400 萬美元,與上一季度持平。包含在運營費用中的生產啟動在第二季度總計 1300 萬美元,與上一季度相比增加了 600 萬美元,這是由於與我們在俄亥俄州的第三家工廠相關的啟動成本增加。
We recorded the aforementioned $245 million gain on sale associated with the closing of the sale of the project development platform in Japan. Q2 operating income was $145 million, which included depreciation and amortization of $67 million and the utilization of production startup expense totaling $17 million, share-based compensation of $6 million, gain on the sale of the Japan project development platform of $245 million and an impairment of $58 million associated with the Luz del Norte project in Chile.
我們記錄了上述 2.45 億美元的與日本項目開發平台銷售結束相關的銷售收益。第二季度營業收入為 1.45 億美元,其中包括 6700 萬美元的折舊和攤銷以及 1700 萬美元的生產啟動費用的使用、600 萬美元的股份補償、2.45 億美元的日本項目開發平台銷售收益和減值與智利的 Luz del Norte 項目相關的 5800 萬美元。
We recorded tax expense of $84 million in the second quarter compared to a tax benefit of $19 million in the prior quarter. The increase in tax expense is primarily attributable to an increase in pretax profit from the sale of our Japan project development platform and an increase in tax expense related to the Luz del Norte project. A combination of the aforementioned items led to second quarter earnings per share of $0.52 compared to a Q1 loss per share of $0.41 on a diluted basis.
我們在第二季度記錄了 8400 萬美元的稅收支出,而上一季度的稅收優惠為 1900 萬美元。稅項支出增加主要是由於出售日本項目開發平台的稅前利潤增加以及與 Luz del Norte 項目相關的稅項支出增加。上述項目的組合導致第二季度每股收益為 0.52 美元,而第一季度攤薄後每股虧損為 0.41 美元。
I'll next turn to Slide 8 to discuss select balance sheet items and summary cash flow information. Cash flows generated from operations were $88 million, and capital expenditures were $199 million in the second quarter. Our cash, marketable securities and restricted cash balance ended the quarter at $1.9 billion compared to $1.6 billion at the end of the prior quarter. Module segment operating cash flow and proceeds from the sale of our Japan project development platform were partially offset by other operating expenses and capital expenditures associated with our new Ohio and India factories.
接下來我將轉到幻燈片 8,討論選擇的資產負債表項目和匯總現金流信息。第二季度運營產生的現金流為 8800 萬美元,資本支出為 1.99 億美元。本季度末,我們的現金、有價證券和受限現金餘額為 19 億美元,而上一季度末為 16 億美元。模塊部門的經營現金流和出售我們日本項目開發平台的收益被與我們在俄亥俄州和印度的新工廠相關的其他經營費用和資本支出部分抵消。
Total debt at the end of the second quarter was $175 million, a decrease of $77 million from the end of Q1, primarily due to the repayment of a credit facility before transferring the associated project with the sale of the Japan project development platform. All of our outstanding debt is nonrecourse project debt and will come off the balance sheet if the Luz del Norte project is solved.
第二季度末總債務為 1.75 億美元,比第一季度末減少 7700 萬美元,主要是由於在通過出售日本項目開發平台轉讓相關項目之前償還了信貸額度。我們所有的未償債務都是無追索權的項目債務,如果 Luz del Norte 項目得到解決,它們將從資產負債表中消失。
Our net cash position, which includes cash, restricted cash and marketable securities less debt, increased by approximately $372 million to $1.7 billion as a result of the aforementioned factors.
由於上述因素,我們的淨現金頭寸(包括現金、受限現金和有價證券減去債務)增加了約 3.72 億美元至 17 億美元。
Continuing on Slide 9. Our full year 2022 guidance is updated as follows: Our previous revenue guidance of $2.4 billion to $2.6 billion was predominantly module segment revenue, which remains unchanged. We are adding other segment revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million for total revenue guidance of between $2.55 billion and $2.8 billion to reflect the expected sale of the Luz del Norte project in the second half of the year.
繼續幻燈片 9。我們的 2022 年全年指導更新如下:我們之前的 24 億美元至 26 億美元的收入指導主要是模塊部門收入,該收入保持不變。我們正在增加 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元的其他部門收入指導,總收入指導介於 25.5 億美元至 28 億美元之間,以反映今年下半年 Luz del Norte 項目的預期銷售。
With half year behind us, we have greater clarity into our full year module segment performance. Whilst the midpoint of our module segment gross profit guidance remains unchanged, we've revised the range from $165 million to $225 million to $175 million to $215 million.
在我們過去半年之後,我們對全年模塊部門的表現有了更清晰的了解。雖然我們的模塊部門毛利潤指引的中點保持不變,但我們已將範圍從 1.65 億美元修改至 2.25 億美元至 1.75 億美元至 2.15 億美元。
Our other segment, which previously was forecast to reduce gross profit by $10 million, is now forecast to reduce gross profit by $50 million to $60 million due to the anticipated Luz del Norte sale, resulting in total forecasted gross profit of $115 million to $165 million.
我們的其他部門之前預計毛利潤將減少 1000 萬美元,但由於預期的 Luz del Norte 銷售,現在預計毛利潤將減少 5000 萬美元至 6000 萬美元,預計總毛利潤為 1.15 億美元至 1.65 億美元.
Within gross profit, assumptions related to underutilization losses of $10 million to $15 million and a sales freight impact of 18 to 20 points of gross margin remain unchanged. Additionally, our forecasted cost of watt produced reduction from year-end 2021 to year-end 2022 of 4% to 6%, and our forecasted flat year-over-year cost of watt sold forecast both remain unchanged.
在毛利潤中,與 1000 萬美元至 1500 萬美元的未充分利用損失和 18 至 20 個毛利率點的銷售運費影響相關的假設保持不變。此外,我們預測的瓦特生產成本從 2021 年底到 2022 年底下降 4% 至 6%,我們預測的銷售瓦特成本同比持平預測均保持不變。
Note, the midpoint of our full year module segment gross margin guidance of approximately 8% remains unchanged from our previous forecast. Following a 3% and 5% module segment gross margin result in the first and second quarters of 2022, module margin improvement is expected to continue in the second half of the year.
請注意,我們全年模塊部門毛利率指引的中點約為 8%,與我們之前的預測保持不變。繼 2022 年第一季度和第二季度模塊業務毛利率分別為 3% 和 5% 之後,預計下半年模塊利潤率將繼續改善。
SG&A and R&D expenses are forecast to total $270 million to $280 million, down from $280 million to $290 million in our previous guidance. In addition, our forecast startup expense of $80 million to $85 million is down from $85 million to $90 million previously for a total forecast operating expenses forecast of $350 million to $365 million.
SG&A 和研發費用預計總額為 2.7 億美元至 2.8 億美元,低於我們之前指引中的 2.8 億美元至 2.9 億美元。此外,我們預測的啟動費用為 8000 萬美元至 8500 萬美元,低於之前的 8500 萬美元至 9000 萬美元,總運營費用預測為 3.5 億美元至 3.65 億美元。
The gain on sale of businesses previously forecast at $270 million to $290 million is now forecast to be $245 million given the aforementioned currency impact.
鑑於上述貨幣影響,之前預測的企業出售收益為 2.7 億美元至 2.9 億美元,現在預計為 2.45 億美元。
Operating income is estimated to be between $5 million and $70 million, down from previous guidance of $55 million to $150 million as a function of the reduction in the U.S. dollar value of the Japan business sale and the inclusion of the expected Luz del Norte sale in guidance, partially offset by SG&A, R&D and startup expenses savings.
營業收入估計在 500 萬美元到 7000 萬美元之間,低於之前的 5500 萬美元到 1.5 億美元的指導值,這是由於日本業務出售的美元價值減少以及將預期的 Luz del Norte 出售納入指導,部分被 SG&A、研發和啟動費用節省所抵消。
Other income and expense guidance moves from $20 million to $30 million of expense in prior guidance to $25 million of income in current guidance is a function of increased interest income and forecast debt forgiveness upon the anticipated sale of the Luz del Norte project.
其他收入和支出指導從先前指導中的 2,000 萬美元到 3,000 萬美元,當前指導中的收入為 2,500 萬美元,這是增加的利息收入和預期出售 Luz del Norte 項目後預計的債務減免的函數。
Full year tax expense increases from $35 million to $55 million previously to $55 million to $70 million, following the inclusion of the expected sale of the Luz del Norte project this year, partially offset by a lower-than-forecast gain on sale of the Japan development platform. This results in full year 2022 earnings per diluted share guidance range of negative $0.25 to positive $0.25.
全年稅收支出從之前的 3,500 萬美元增加到 5,500 萬美元,增加至 5,500 萬美元到 7,000 萬美元,原因是今年預計出售 Luz del Norte 項目,但部分被低於預期的日本出售收益所抵消開發平台。這導致 2022 年全年每股攤薄收益指導範圍為負 0.25 美元至正 0.25 美元。
Capital expenditures guidance of $850 million to $1.1 billion and shipments guidance of 8.9 gigawatts to 9.4 gigawatts remain unchanged. Our year-end 2022 net cash balance is anticipated to be between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion, an increase of $200 million following the assumed sale of Luz del Norte and the corresponding reduction in project-level debt.
8.5 億美元至 11 億美元的資本支出指引和 8.9 吉瓦至 9.4 吉瓦的出貨量指引保持不變。我們預計 2022 年年底的淨現金餘額將在 13 億美元至 15 億美元之間,在假設出售 Luz del Norte 並相應減少項目級債務後增加 2 億美元。
Before handing the call back to Mark, given our record backlog and significant recent bookings, I'd like to provide some insight into our pricing strategy and our vision for gross margin expansion for the next 3 years and beyond. The components of this strategy include our approach of contracting out our capacity several years in advance of production. The anticipated reduction of our cost per watt produced, the expected benefits from capacity expansion, including through scaling a largely fixed overhead structure, and our agile contracting approach, which provides for the potential realization of both incremental revenue and is expected to mitigate freight and certain commodity cost risk.
在將電話回電給 Mark 之前,鑑於我們的記錄積壓和最近的大量預訂,我想提供一些關於我們的定價策略和我們對未來 3 年及以後的毛利率擴張的願景的見解。該戰略的組成部分包括我們在生產前幾年將產能外包的方法。我們每瓦生產成本的預期降低,產能擴張的預期收益,包括通過擴大基本固定的間接費用結構,以及我們靈活的合同方法,這提供了潛在的增量收入實現,並有望減少運費和某些商品成本風險。
Now with respect to our agile contracting structure, every contract is different, and not every recent contract includes every technology and commodity adjuster we've been describing. Accordingly, while we anticipate seeing some incremental revenue contribution and gross margin protection from these adjusters in 2023, the majority of these potential revenue and gross margin benefits, if we're able to achieve our technology road map, are expected to be recognized in 2024 and 2025.
現在就我們的敏捷合同結構而言,每份合同都是不同的,並不是每份最近的合同都包含我們一直在描述的每一種技術和商品調節器。因此,雖然我們預計 2023 年這些調整者會看到一些增量收入貢獻和毛利率保護,但如果我們能夠實現我們的技術路線圖,這些潛在收入和毛利率的大部分收益預計將在 2024 年得到確認和 2025 年。
Firstly, as it relates to ASPs, between the pricing reflected in the current contracted backlog and the pricing for the bookings realized in July, we expect the profile of our annual base contracted ASPs will remain effectively flat, and therefore, not decline for 2022 through 2025. Against this pricing backdrop, we anticipate a reduction in cost per watt produced from year-end 2021 to year-end 2022 of between 4% and 6%. Even making the highly conservative assumption of no further reductions to cost per watt produced beyond this point, we expect cost per watt produced exiting 2022 to provide an annual gross margin benefit in 2023 and beyond.
首先,由於它與 ASP 相關,在當前合同積壓中反映的定價與 7 月實現的預訂定價之間,我們預計我們的年度基本合同 ASP 的概況將保持有效持平,因此在 2022 年至2025 年。在這種定價背景下,我們預計從 2021 年底到 2022 年底,每瓦生產的成本將降低 4% 至 6%。即使做出高度保守的假設,即在此之後不再進一步降低每瓦生產成本,我們預計 2022 年之後生產的每瓦生產成本將在 2023 年及以後提供年度毛利率收益。
On a cost mitigation basis, as it relates to sales freight as well as steel and aluminum costs relative to 2022, we would expect future years to see either a reduced cost profile or should costs remain elevated relative to prepandemic norms, the inclusion of adjusters would provide for an increase in ASP to offset such costs. Under either scenario, we would see an expansion of gross profit relative to 2022.
在降低成本的基礎上,由於它與銷售運費以及相對於 2022 年的鋼鐵和鋁成本有關,我們預計未來幾年成本會降低,或者如果成本相對於大流行前的規範保持較高水平,則包括調整者將規定提高平均售價以抵消此類成本。在任何一種情況下,我們都會看到毛利潤相對於 2022 年有所增長。
As mentioned on the April earnings call, indicatively, assuming today's sales freight in aluminum environment, a contract with sales freight aluminum adjusters is expected to increase ASPs by approximately $0.03 per watt above the baseline.
正如 4 月份財報電話會議中提到的,假設今天的鋁銷售環境中的銷售運費,與銷售運費鋁調節器的合同預計將使 ASP 比基線高出約 0.03 美元/瓦。
From a growth perspective, relative to today, we expect the announced Series 7 factories in Ohio and India will add approximately 6 gigawatts of annual production starting in 2024. That additional volume is anticipated to provide significant incremental gross profit.
從增長的角度來看,相對於今天,我們預計俄亥俄州和印度宣布的 7 系列工廠將從 2024 年開始增加約 6 吉瓦的年產量。預計額外的產量將提供可觀的增量毛利潤。
In addition, we see the benefit of scale from our largely fixed operating cost structure as we anticipate adding this capacity with limited incremental OpEx. Assuming the midpoint of our current full year 2022 R&D and SG&A guidance of $275 million, this incremental production reduces combined R&D and SG&A cost per watt by approximately $0.01.
此外,由於我們預計在有限的增量 OpEx 的情況下增加這種容量,因此我們看到了從我們基本固定的運營成本結構中獲得的規模優勢。假設我們當前 2022 年全年研發和 SG&A 指導的中點為 2.75 億美元,這種增量生產將每瓦的研發和 SG&A 總成本降低約 0.01 美元。
As it relates to our Indian manufacturing facility, while ASPs in that market are anticipated to be lower than those in the U.S. and other markets, we expect gross profit per watt for the Indian factory to be equal to or higher than the fleet average. This is due to a combination of factory scale, domestic CapEx incentives and other incentives, lower labor costs and the elimination of ocean freight to deliver the domestically produced product.
由於它與我們的印度製造工廠有關,雖然該市場的 ASP 預計低於美國和其他市場的平均售價,但我們預計印度工廠的每瓦毛利潤將等於或高於機隊平均水平。這是由於工廠規模、國內資本支出激勵措施和其他激勵措施、降低勞動力成本和取消海運來交付國內生產的產品。
The combined impact of flat ASPs, cost per watt reduction, sales freight and commodity adjusters and capacity expansion against a largely fixed operating cost base provides a compelling case for gross margin expansion over the period we've been discussing. Moreover, this potential for gross margin expansion is further enhanced to the extent that we're able to make achievements within our technology road map.
平均銷售價格持平、每瓦成本降低、銷售運費和商品調節器以及產能擴張與基本固定的運營成本基礎的綜合影響為我們一直在討論的這段時期的毛利率擴張提供了令人信服的理由。此外,在我們能夠在我們的技術路線圖中取得成就的程度上,這種毛利率擴張的潛力得到了進一步增強。
As described on the April earnings call, under our updated contracting approach, we forward-sell today's technology. To the extent we accomplish future module technology improvements, including new product designs and energy-related enhancements, we have the opportunity to realize incremental revenue under sales contracts that include technology adjusters. As Mark noted earlier, this does not include either potential adjustments to the ultimate bin delivered to the customer, which may adjust the ASP under the sales contract upwards or downwards, or for those contracts in the United States that include sharing related to a potential upside for U.S.-made modules and an extension of the investment tax credit.
如 4 月財報電話會議所述,根據我們更新的合同方法,我們遠期銷售當今的技術。在我們完成未來模塊技術改進(包括新產品設計和能源相關改進)的範圍內,我們有機會根據包括技術調整者的銷售合同實現增量收入。正如馬克之前指出的,這不包括對交付給客戶的最終箱的潛在調整,這可能會向上或向下調整銷售合同下的平均售價,也不包括在美國的那些包括與潛在上行空間相關的共享的合同用於美國製造的模塊和投資稅收抵免的擴展。
And finally, the gross profit opportunity described here is within the context of our current capacity plan. Additional capacity would be expected to be gross profit accretive to the above scenario. And while we're not making a new additional [plant] announcement today, I'll now turn the call back over to Mark, who will provide an update on policy and our current thinking with respect to capacity expansion.
最後,這裡描述的毛利潤機會是在我們當前產能計劃的範圍內。預計額外的產能將增加上述情況的毛利潤。雖然我們今天沒有發布新的額外 [工廠] 公告,但我現在將電話轉回給 Mark,他將提供有關政策和我們當前關於產能擴張的想法的最新信息。
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
All right. Thanks, Alex. To conclude, I would like to discuss the rapidly evolving policy environment both at home and abroad. Beginning in the United States, like many in the energy sector, we were pleasantly surprised by yesterday's joint announcement from Senators Manchin and Schumer regarding the Inflation Reduction Act. We are encouraged that yesterday's announcement made a clear reference to investment in energy security and technology-neutral climate change solutions, and we are supportive of the balanced approach to corporate taxation.
好的。謝謝,亞歷克斯。最後,我想討論一下國內外迅速變化的政策環境。從美國開始,與能源行業的許多人一樣,我們對昨天參議員曼欽和舒默就《降低通脹法案》的聯合聲明感到驚喜。我們感到鼓舞的是,昨天的公告明確提到了對能源安全和技術中立的氣候變化解決方案的投資,我們支持企業稅收的平衡方法。
While we are still reviewing the full legislative text released last night, we are hopeful that the advanced manufacturing production credit, if passed, helps deliver the incentives required to boost domestic solar manufacturing and secure our nation's energy independence.
雖然我們仍在審查昨晚發布的完整立法文本,但我們希望先進製造業生產信貸如果獲得通過,將有助於提供促進國內太陽能製造業和確保我們國家能源獨立所需的激勵措施。
As the legislative process moves forward, we urge both chambers to move quickly to pass this critical legislation, which represents the first real step to designing a clean energy industrial policy that addresses climate change while simultaneously codifying American energy security.
隨著立法進程的推進,我們敦促兩院迅速採取行動,通過這一關鍵立法,這是設計清潔能源產業政策的第一步,該政策應對氣候變化,同時規范美國能源安全。
With respect to 45X, the advanced manufacturing production credit, we urge Congress to ensure that the manufacturing tax credit designed to incentivize domestic solar supply chains are fully refundable in order to deliver the intended result. This legislation's extension of the solar investment tax credit appears to enable crucial demand-side policy certainty. We're hopeful that, if passed, legislation maintains the domestic content incentive that will help further ensure that U.S. taxpayer dollars are used to help expand manufacturing here at home.
關於 45X,先進製造業生產信貸,我們敦促國會確保旨在激勵國內太陽能供應鏈的製造業稅收抵免全額退還,以實現預期結果。這項立法擴大太陽能投資稅收抵免似乎使關鍵的需求方政策確定性成為可能。我們希望,如果通過,立法將維持國內含量激勵措施,這將有助於進一步確保美國納稅人的錢用於幫助擴大國內製造業。
Turning to our considerations to further expand our manufacturing footprint, our criteria for investment remains unchanged. These include geographic proximity to solar demand, the ability to export cost competitively into other markets, access to cost-competitive labor, low energy and real estate costs, access to or the ability to build a cost-competitive supply chain to support the sourcing of raw materials and components, and as we've repeatedly stated, the domestic policy environment.
談到我們進一步擴大製造足蹟的考慮,我們的投資標准保持不變。其中包括地理上接近太陽能需求、向其他市場出口成本競爭力的能力、獲得具有成本競爭力的勞動力、低能源和房地產成本、獲得或建立具有成本競爭力的供應鏈以支持採購的能力原材料和零部件,以及我們多次聲明的國內政策環境。
We agree wholeheartedly with Senator Manchin that the United States needs to remain a global superpower through innovation. As it relates to the potential for our own manufacturing expansion in the U.S., we had previously stated that we were evaluating the potential for future capacity expansion but noted that we first required clarity on domestic solar policy. In light of these latest developments and should the Inflation Reduction Act get passed with consistent language on solar-related tax credits, we plan to pivot quickly to reevaluate U.S. manufacturing expansion.
我們完全同意參議員曼欽的觀點,即美國需要通過創新保持全球超級大國的地位。由於這與我們自己在美國的製造業擴張的潛力有關,我們之前曾表示我們正在評估未來產能擴張的潛力,但指出我們首先需要明確國內太陽能政策。鑑於這些最新發展,並且如果《降低通脹法案》以一致的語言通過與太陽能相關的稅收抵免,我們計劃迅速轉向重新評估美國製造業的擴張。
Moving ahead, we continue to be optimistic about the policy environment in Europe and in India. Over the last 10 months, we have met productively with Prime Minister Modi of India and attended the Investment Conference hosted by President Macron of France in addition to having numerous constructive meetings with members of their cabinets. These governments, along with others that are -- we are engaged with are seeking to diversify and grow domestic capabilities.
展望未來,我們繼續看好歐洲和印度的政策環境。在過去的 10 個月裡,我們與印度總理莫迪進行了富有成效的會晤,並參加了法國總統馬克龍主持的投資會議,此外還與他們的內閣成員舉行了多次建設性會議。這些政府以及與我們合作的其他政府正在尋求多樣化和發展國內能力。
As calls for resilient domestic supply chains grow louder in solar markets around the world, we believe First Solar is uniquely well positioned to offer a viable alternative based on a proven repeatable vertically integrated manufacturing template.
隨著全球太陽能市場對具有彈性的國內供應鏈的呼聲越來越高,我們認為 First Solar 具有獨特的優勢,可以基於經過驗證的可重複垂直整合製造模板提供可行的替代方案。
Before I turn the call back to Alex to summarize today's key messages, I would like to note that we have issued our 2022 sustainability report. The report highlights our continued progress across a range of environmental, social and governance metrics, detailing among other accomplishments how we have successfully lowered our environmental footprint while advancing our diversity inclusion goals. These achievements demonstrate the strength of our commitment to the principles of responsible solar, placing at the heart of our business as we invest in innovation and scale.
在我將電話轉回給亞歷克斯以總結今天的關鍵信息之前,我想指出我們已經發布了 2022 年可持續發展報告。該報告強調了我們在一系列環境、社會和治理指標方面的持續進展,詳細說明了我們如何在推進多元化包容目標的同時成功降低環境足蹟的其他成就。這些成就證明了我們對負責任太陽能原則的承諾的力度,在我們投資創新和擴大規模時將其置於我們業務的核心。
We are proud that First Solar is an example of how solar can be competitive without compromising on principles and purpose. We have shown that solar technologies can be sustainably scaled without people and the planet paying a high price.
我們感到自豪的是,First Solar 是太陽能如何在不損害原則和目的的情況下保持競爭力的一個例子。我們已經證明,無需人類和地球付出高昂代價,太陽能技術就可以可持續地擴展。
Alex will now summarize the key messages from today's call.
Alex 現在將總結今天電話會議的關鍵信息。
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Turning to Slide 10. From a financial perspective, we're pleased with our Q2 earnings per share of $0.52. We updated our full year guidance to reflect the impact of 2 discrete legacy systems events. The midpoint of our full year module revenue and gross margin guidance remains unchanged. Operationally, we'll produce 2.2 gigawatts and ship 2.5 gigawatts of modules.
轉到幻燈片 10。從財務角度來看,我們對第二季度每股 0.52 美元的收益感到滿意。我們更新了全年指南,以反映 2 個離散遺留系統事件的影響。我們全年模塊收入和毛利率指引的中點保持不變。在運營上,我們將生產 2.2 吉瓦並運送 2.5 吉瓦的模塊。
Additionally, Series 6 demand remains extremely robust with 27.1 gigawatts of year-to-date net bookings, leading to a record contracted backlog of 44.3 gigawatts. The 10.4 gigawatts of new bookings since our prior earnings call in April had a base ASP, excluding adjusters of $0.301.
此外,系列 6 的需求仍然非常強勁,年初至今的淨預訂量為 27.1 吉瓦,導致合同積壓達到創紀錄的 44.3 吉瓦。自我們 4 月份的上一次財報電話會議以來,10.4 吉瓦的新預訂有一個基本平均售價,不包括 0.301 美元的調整器。
And finally, we're encouraged by the Inflation Reduction Act proposed legislation and are currently reviewing this development and its potential impact on our business and capacity expansion plans.
最後,我們對《降低通貨膨脹法案》提議的立法感到鼓舞,目前正在審查這一發展及其對我們的業務和產能擴張計劃的潛在影響。
And with that, we conclude our prepared remarks and open the call for questions. Operator?
至此,我們結束準備好的發言並開始提問。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Ben Kallo with Baird.
(操作員說明)您的第一個問題來自 Ben Kallo 和 Baird。
Benjamin Joseph Kallo - Senior Research Analyst
Benjamin Joseph Kallo - Senior Research Analyst
Congrats on the results and the bookings. How do you figure out the optimal manufacturing capacity just because you've been booking so much? And then moving (inaudible) If I go back to Analyst Day a long, long tine ago, it was greater than [20%] gross margin. How do I do all the puts and takes and kind of square with that?
祝賀結果和預訂。您如何僅僅因為您已經預訂了這麼多,就確定了最佳製造能力?然後移動(聽不清)如果我很久很久以前回到分析師日,它的毛利率超過 [20%]。我該如何做所有的看跌期權和交易?
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
So Ben, I guess, maybe one way to start. I think we've guided to a number that's, I don't know, 7% or 8% gross margin for the module business in the environment that we're in right now. Okay. This for 2022. So what Alex has said in his remarks is that obviously, embedded in that low gross margin is the headwinds that we're dealing with around sales freight and with commodities such as aluminum and eventually steel when we introduce Series 7. The impact of that -- the headwind is 11 or 12 percentage points or so of gross margin.
所以本,我想,也許是一種開始的方式。我認為我們已經指導了一個數字,我不知道,在我們目前所處的環境中,模塊業務的毛利率為 7% 或 8%。好的。這是針對 2022 年的。所以亞歷克斯在他的講話中所說的是,很明顯,在我們推出 Series 7 時,我們在銷售運費和鋁等大宗商品以及最終鋼鐵等商品方面面臨的不利因素是嵌入在如此低的毛利率中。其影響——不利因素是毛利率的 11 或 12 個百分點左右。
So just normalizing for that -- assuming -- it can come through either one away. It can come through as an incremental ASP, I'm just assuming that ASPs stay where they are right now and then we see as a benefit the $0.03 that Alex referenced as a lower cost because sales freight normalizes down to $0.025, which is where our contracts anchored to, and aluminum comes back to historical levels that we have seen previously.
因此,只需對此進行標準化 - 假設 - 它可以通過任何一個。它可以作為增量 ASP 實現,我只是假設 ASP 保持現在的狀態,然後我們將 Alex 引用的 0.03 美元視為較低成本,因為銷售運費正常化至 0.025 美元,這是我們的合約錨定,鋁回到我們之前看到的歷史水平。
So that gets you basically at your threshold of your 20% relative to what we guide. Now the guide is also for the full year. And if you look at our gross margin progression, the gross margin is higher in the end of the year. So if you use the exit point, you actually would be north of 20% gross margin.
因此,相對於我們的指導,這基本上可以讓您達到 20% 的門檻。現在該指南也適用於全年。如果你看看我們的毛利率進展,年底的毛利率會更高。因此,如果您使用退出點,您實際上將超過 20% 的毛利率。
Alex also indicated that we still are -- even though in this challenging environment, we are seeing a cost reduction. So we are seeing year-on-year cost reduction of about 5% or -- 5% to 6%. So there's an incremental margin expansion there.
亞歷克斯還表示,我們仍然是——即使在這個充滿挑戰的環境中,我們看到了成本的降低。因此,我們看到成本同比下降約 5% 或 - 5% 至 6%。所以那裡有一個增量的利潤率擴張。
So when you just layer those together, you're solidly into the 20%. And then if you capture the value of the technology adjusters, then you're meaningfully better than that, right? So I think everything that we have right now, what we have line of sight to around where we've contracted in terms of our ASPs, and as we've indicated, they're relatively flat or slightly increasing as we go across the horizon. And the other actions that we've taken around our contracting and then capturing the value of our technology road map that we should be very comfortable achieving the minimum threshold of 20%. IN my mind, we should do much better than that, but there's still a lot still in front of us to execute on. But I think we've given ourselves a great opportunity to show very strong margin -- gross margin percent as we move forward.
因此,當您將它們疊加在一起時,您就完全進入了 20%。然後,如果你抓住了技術調整者的價值,那麼你會比那更好,對吧?因此,我認為我們現在擁有的一切,我們在 ASP 方面所看到的收縮區域,正如我們所指出的,隨著我們越過地平線,它們相對持平或略有增加.以及我們圍繞我們的合同採取的其他行動,然後捕捉我們技術路線圖的價值,我們應該很容易達到 20% 的最低門檻。在我看來,我們應該做得比這更好,但我們面前還有很多事情要做。但我認為我們已經給了自己一個很好的機會來展示非常強勁的利潤率——隨著我們前進的毛利率百分比。
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Yes. Ben, I mean, as you think through the optimum manufacturing capacity, we've always said that we want that to be demand driven, right? And clearly, if you look at the backlog we have today, contracts, if you look at the size of the pipeline, we have support of the pieces behind growth there. If you think through how we think about expanding, we've talked about some of the key drivers being stable policy demand, locating manufacturing proximity to demand, having a technology advantage or a stable technology platform from which to grow and several other things around competitive labor, real estate, power markets, supply chain, et cetera.
是的。 Ben,我的意思是,當您考慮最佳製造能力時,我們一直說我們希望這是由需求驅動的,對嗎?很明顯,如果你看看我們今天的積壓訂單,合同,如果你看看管道的規模,我們支持那裡的增長背後的部分。如果您仔細考慮我們對擴張的看法,我們已經談到了一些關鍵驅動因素,包括穩定的政策需求、靠近需求的製造地點、擁有技術優勢或穩定的技術平台來發展,以及圍繞競爭的其他一些事情勞動力、房地產、電力市場、供應鍊等。
If you think about where we've been -- we're challenged recently, there's been a lot of volatility in the policy side of that equation, which has been a key driver. And as Mark mentioned in the prepared remarks, we're obviously hopeful given the news coming out of Washington yesterday afternoon. We're still working our way through that document, a lot to be read there. And look, we're cautiously optimistic. We're very happy that people are working on that now. We've seen a lot of churn in this over the last couple of months. So we want to remain cautiously optimistic until we see an actual bill signed into law.
如果您考慮一下我們所處的位置 - 我們最近受到挑戰,那麼該等式的政策方面存在很多波動,這是一個關鍵驅動因素。正如馬克在準備好的講話中提到的那樣,鑑於昨天下午從華盛頓傳來的消息,我們顯然充滿希望。我們仍在研究該文件,那裡有很多內容要閱讀。看,我們是謹慎樂觀的。我們很高興人們現在正在為此努力。在過去的幾個月裡,我們已經看到了很多這樣的流失。因此,在我們看到實際法案簽署成為法律之前,我們希望保持謹慎樂觀。
But if I look through what drives our potential for expansion, we talked about policy being a key driver. You look at the backlog and the demand that's clearly there. You look at the growth of the macro in terms of solar both in the U.S., in Europe and in India. And all the markets we've been looking at manufacturing has been the significant opportunity for expansion.
但如果我仔細研究推動我們擴張潛力的因素,我們會談到政策是一個關鍵驅動因素。您會查看積壓和明顯存在的需求。你看看美國、歐洲和印度在太陽能方面的宏觀增長。我們一直在關注製造業的所有市場都是擴張的重要機會。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Philip Shen with ROTH.
您的下一個問題來自 Philip Shen 與 ROTH 的對話。
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
As a follow-up on the capacity expansion, if the Inflation Reduction Act does get passed, can you quantify in any way given the demand that you see, and that's before the ITC extension? How many new factories you could actually put up and over what kind of timeframe? And then also in the [CIMA] part of the bill, there's the $0.04 per watt CadTel cell credit, and then there's the $0.07 per watt module credit. I know we talked about this in the past, back -- last year when this was also active, but can -- how much of the credit do you think you can access? Do you think you can tap into the $0.11, the $0.07 plus $0.04? Or do you think you have the ability to just access the $0.04 per watt.
作為產能擴張的後續行動,如果《降低通脹法案》確實獲得通過,您能否根據您看到的需求以任何方式量化,而且那是在 ITC 延期之前?您實際上可以建立多少個新工廠以及在什麼樣的時間範圍內?然後在賬單的 [CIMA] 部分中,有每瓦 0.04 美元的 CadTel 電池信用額度,然後是每瓦 0.07 美元的模塊信用額度。我知道我們過去曾討論過這個問題——去年也很活躍,但是可以——你認為你可以獲得多少信用?你認為你可以利用 0.11 美元、0.07 美元加 0.04 美元嗎?或者您認為您有能力獲得每瓦 0.04 美元的價格。
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
So look, Phil, as it relates to capacity expansion, effectively from this point in time, if we -- something here in the U.S. from a point in time, it's going to take us somewhere around 24 months, maybe slightly less. Hopefully, we see some relief in some of the supply chain challenges that we've been dealing with over the last couple of years. So maybe we can do something faster. But by the time you put a greenfield with a new building and then the tools, the good thing about it, as we've mentioned previously, is we've been working with our vendors to keep them teed up, knowing that there was going to be another factory.
所以看,菲爾,因為它與產能擴張有關,從這個時間點開始有效,如果我們 - 從某個時間點在美國這裡發生一些事情,我們將需要大約 24 個月的時間,也許會稍微短一些。希望我們在過去幾年一直在處理的一些供應鏈挑戰中看到一些緩解。所以也許我們可以更快地做點什麼。但是當你把一個新的建築和工具放在一個綠地的時候,它的好處,正如我們之前提到的,我們一直在與我們的供應商合作,讓他們保持良好狀態,知道會有成為另一家工廠。
We're actually very pleased with the -- where we are right now and the tool move-in scheduled that we're seeing in Perrysburg 3 and then what we have currently lined up for the India expansion. So -- and we've told our vendors, we want to have a cadence of 6 months after that for at least one more factory and maybe we'd go beyond that given the current environment and the options that we have, not only here in the U.S., but in the EU and in India as well. So it's about a 24-month window.
實際上,我們對我們現在所處的位置以及我們在 Perrysburg 3 中看到的工具布展計劃以及我們目前為印度擴張所安排的內容感到非常滿意。所以——我們已經告訴我們的供應商,我們希望在這之後至少再有一個工廠有 6 個月的節奏,考慮到當前的環境和我們擁有的選擇,我們可能會超越這個節奏,而不僅僅是這裡在美國,但在歐盟和印度也是如此。所以它大約是 24 個月的窗口。
EU could be a little bit faster because we still do have a facility in Eastern Germany that potentially could be utilized for incremental production. But here in the U.S. and even in India, it's going to be on a longer timeline accordingly because of that the challenge we're dealing with right now with the supply chain, and maybe we'll see some relief.
歐盟可能會快一點,因為我們在德國東部仍然有一個設施,可以用於增量生產。但是在美國,甚至在印度,由於我們現在正在處理供應鏈方面的挑戰,因此它會相應地在更長的時間內完成,也許我們會看到一些緩解。
But the way I look at it in terms of priorities, if the Inflation Reduction Act goes forward, I think at least one new utility-scale factory, we would love to complete our discussion and operationalize our tandem product that we referenced as -- in a partnership with Sun Power for residential market. So that's in the mix as well. And maybe could we throw another U.S. factory into the mix? There's a potential. But I'm also trying to make sure we're looking at every other avenue to get incremental throughput if this goes through.
但是我從優先級的角度來看,如果《降低通脹法案》繼續推進,我認為至少有一個新的公用事業規模工廠,我們很樂意完成我們的討論並實施我們提到的串聯產品——在與 Sun Power 合作開發住宅市場。所以這也是混合的。也許我們可以將另一家美國工廠加入其中?有潛力。但我也在努力確保我們正在尋找其他所有途徑來獲得增加的吞吐量,如果這通過的話。
For example, our team has done a phenomenal job of driving incremental throughput through the existing factory. So let's look at additional constraints within the factory. Where is the constraint? Can we add some capital to the existing production here in the U.S., the 6 gigawatts or so that when we get Perrysburg 3 up and running to add another tool that can increase throughput at the constraint that allows you to optimize across the entire tool set? There's another path there to drive more throughput across the platform, which is one thing that we clearly want to continue to look at.
例如,我們的團隊在通過現有工廠推動增加產量方面做得非常出色。因此,讓我們看看工廠內的其他約束。約束在哪裡?我們是否可以在美國現有的生產中增加一些資本,大約 6 吉瓦,以便在 Perrysburg 3 啟動並運行時添加另一個工具,該工具可以在允許您優化整個工具集的約束條件下增加吞吐量?還有另一條途徑可以在整個平台上提高吞吐量,這是我們顯然希望繼續關注的一件事。
As it relates to the Inflation Reduction Act, and in particular, the 45X provision, look, we believe -- and again, we still need to go through read everything and to consult with everyone that -- to ensure our interpretation is accurate. We believe that we have a full entitlement to the $0.04 plus the $0.07, which would be the sell-in module.
由於它與《通貨膨脹減少法》,特別是 45X 條款有關,看,我們相信——再一次,我們仍然需要通讀所有內容並與每個人協商——以確保我們的解釋是準確的。我們相信我們完全有權獲得 0.04 美元加上 0.07 美元,這將是銷售模塊。
The other thing, Phil, I think I've said to you in the past is that the spirit of the legislation, which largely is the same as what was originally in prior versions, was to ensure thin film was not going to be competitively disadvantaged relative to crystalline silicon. And so the structure and the way it's worded if it were to be passed as is right now, we also believe that we would benefit from the wafer. And the wafer provision, I think, is $12 per square meter. So you take that, our modular Series 6 today is about 2.5 square meters, which would imply there's about -- on a module basis, not on a cents per watt basis, there's potentially a $30 benefit per module.
另一件事,菲爾,我想我過去曾對你說過,立法的精神與以前的版本基本相同,是為了確保薄膜不會在競爭中處於劣勢相對於晶體矽。因此,如果現在按原樣通過結構和措辭方式,我們也相信我們將從晶圓中受益。我認為晶圓供應是每平方米 12 美元。因此,您認為,我們今天的模塊化系列 6 約為 2.5 平方米,這意味著大約 - 在模塊的基礎上,而不是在每瓦美分的基礎上,每個模塊可能有 30 美元的收益。
So that's another lever that we are going to try to make sure we can go and capitalize on. That one -- again, we believe the intent is to do that, but it's another area that we have to work on. But we want to make sure that anything that is finally passed into law that we are not at all competitively disadvantaged and that we're fully entitled to all the benefits that other technologies such as crystalline silicon would be able to capture.
因此,這是我們將嘗試確保我們能夠利用的另一個槓桿。那個——再一次,我們相信這樣做的意圖是,但這是我們必須努力的另一個領域。但我們希望確保最終通過成為法律的任何東西,我們都不會在競爭中處於劣勢,並且我們完全有權獲得晶體矽等其他技術能夠獲得的所有好處。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Maheep Mandloi with Credit Suisse.
您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Maheep Mandloi。
Maheep Mandloi - Associate
Maheep Mandloi - Associate
Could you just clarify the base ASPs assumption? I think you made a comment on not declining from '22 to '25. And what puts and takes should we kind of expect to that ASP going forward?
你能澄清一下基本的 ASP 假設嗎?我認為您發表了關於不從 22 年到 25 年拒絕的評論。我們應該對 ASP 的未來期待什麼?
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
So what was the last part of the question?
那麼問題的最後一部分是什麼?
Maheep Mandloi - Associate
Maheep Mandloi - Associate
Just puts and takes with that, just with the adjusters and for aluminum steel and shipping and other things.
只需使用它,只需使用調節器以及鋁鋼和運輸和其他東西。
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Yes. So what we said is if you look at what's in the backlog today, we expect the ASPs to be roughly flat going from 2022 out to 2025. If you think about where we are now and you'll see in the Q coming out, and we've talked about where we were, Q1, Q2. You're somewhere in the range of $0.27 to $0.28 ASPs. And we're saying that on a base level, we expect that to be roughly flat out through the 2022 to 2025 horizon.
是的。所以我們說的是,如果你看看今天的積壓工作,我們預計從 2022 年到 2025 年 ASP 將大致持平。如果你想想我們現在所處的位置,你會看到 Q 的出現,並且我們已經討論了我們在哪裡,第一季度,第二季度。您的平均售價在 0.27 美元到 0.28 美元之間。我們的意思是,在基本水平上,我們預計在 2022 年至 2025 年期間將大致持平。
But remember, as I said in my comments, that base ASP is reflective of effectively today's technology. So when you look at puts and takes around the ASP, you've got potential upside to that based on technology adjustments should we achieve within our technology road map things that provide more energy or more value to the customer, and those are built into contracts to a large extent today.
但請記住,正如我在評論中所說,基礎 ASP 有效地反映了當今的技術。因此,當您查看 ASP 的看跌期權時,如果我們在技術路線圖內實現為客戶提供更多能量或更多價值的事情,並且這些都包含在合同中,那麼基於技術調整,您就有潛在的上漲空間今天在很大程度上。
So when you look at the ASP side, you have that. The other key adjustment you have to ASP, is protection around sales freight and commodities. So in the event that commodity prices and sales freight remain elevated relative to the norms that we saw prepandemic, and typically, the ranges that we assume in our cost structure today, we would have an increased ASP to offset that incremental cost. So you'd have that adding on as well. So those are the key moving pieces that we see around ASP.
因此,當您查看 ASP 方面時,您就有了。您必須對 ASP 進行的另一個關鍵調整是對銷售運費和商品的保護。因此,如果商品價格和銷售運費相對於我們在大流行前看到的標準(通常是我們今天在成本結構中假設的範圍)保持較高水平,我們將增加 ASP 以抵消增加的成本。所以你也可以添加它。所以這些是我們在 ASP 周圍看到的關鍵移動部分。
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Yes. And I want to just make sure it's clear because sometimes people will dismiss, well, if commodities or sales freight normalize, then there won't be any benefit to the ASP adjusters. (inaudible) completely understand. But what it means is our cost per watt will decline then by the corresponding $0.03 a watt. So either it will come through as a higher ASP if we stay in an inflated environment that we're in right now or it's going to come through at a core cost per watt reduction.
是的。而且我想確保清楚,因為有時人們會不屑一顧,好吧,如果商品或銷售運費正常化,那麼平均售價調整者不會有任何好處。 (聽不清)完全理解。但這意味著我們的每瓦成本將下降相應的每瓦 0.03 美元。因此,如果我們現在處於一個膨脹的環境中,它要么會以更高的 ASP 出現,要么會以每瓦核心成本的降低來實現。
And I think sometimes people are dismissing the ASP as if the realization won't be captured without understanding that what it drives to is a lower cost per watt. Either way, in my mind, it's going to add about $0.03 of gross margin across our capacity plans that are getting up to 15 or 16 gigawatts. So there's a meaningful benefit one way or the other, either incremental ASP or lower CPW across, call it, 15 or 16 gigawatts production as we move forward.
而且我認為有時人們會忽略 ASP,就好像在不了解它所驅動的每瓦成本更低的情況下無法捕捉到這種實現。無論哪種方式,在我看來,這將在我們高達 15 或 16 吉瓦的容量計劃中增加約 0.03 美元的毛利率。因此,在我們前進的過程中,無論是增加 ASP 還是降低 CPW(稱之為 15 或 16 吉瓦的產量),都會以一種或另一種方式產生有意義的好處。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha with Guggenheim.
您的下一個問題來自古根海姆的約瑟夫·奧沙(Joseph Osha)。
Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst
Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst
Following up on that previous line of question. There's been lots of talk about the cost adders and the technology adders. But I'm wondering, is there any sort of apples-to-apples per watt cost reduction road map you can talk us through as the technology continues to advance? Because that's, I remember in the past, something you used to communicate about.
跟進上一個問題。有很多關於成本加法器和技術加法器的討論。但我想知道,隨著技術的不斷進步,是否有任何形式的每瓦成本降低路線圖可以告訴我們?因為那是,我記得過去,你用來交流的東西。
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
So look, one of the things we did say is we're still on target for our cost per watt reduction exit rate is kind of targeted at 4% to 6%. And so we are taking out costs even in a very challenging inflationary environment this year. We have not given a continuation of that road map of further cost reductions. At least we haven't been -- we haven't updated that for a period of time. But by definition, the cost per watt will decline as we improve the technology. So as we continue to drive the efficiency higher, that's going to drive down our CPW. Plus we have other opportunities through our additional throughput initiatives, whether it's our bill of material reductions that we're working on as well.
所以看,我們確實說過的一件事是我們仍然在目標上,因為我們的每瓦成本降低退出率的目標是 4% 到 6%。因此,即使在今年極具挑戰性的通脹環境中,我們也正在削減成本。我們沒有給出進一步降低成本的路線圖的延續。至少我們沒有——我們已經有一段時間沒有更新了。但根據定義,隨著我們改進技術,每瓦的成本將會下降。因此,隨著我們繼續提高效率,這將降低我們的 CPW。此外,通過我們的額外吞吐量計劃,我們還有其他機會,無論是我們正在努力減少的材料清單。
So we will continue on a trajectory. If you wanted to assume just a rule of thumb modest kind of view of what we would expect over the next several years, I would believe that we should be still accomplishing at least single digits, maybe upper single digits, cost reductions as we move forward. And as we've indicated previously, the Series 7 product will actually drive some cost reduction as well because of the design of that product with higher efficiency, improved throughput and other issues that will drive an improved cost profile.
所以我們將繼續沿著軌跡前進。如果您只想對我們未來幾年的預期假設一個經驗法則,那麼我相信我們應該仍然至少實現個位數,也許是更高的個位數,隨著我們的前進而降低成本.正如我們之前所指出的,Series 7 產品實際上也將推動一些成本降低,因為該產品的設計具有更高的效率、更高的吞吐量和其他將推動成本狀況改善的問題。
So when you incorporate Series 7 into the fleet, you're going to see a benefit to the overall cost per watt. So the cost per watt is not going to -- it's not peaked. It's going to continue to move in a positive direction. Assuming we don't go into some even crazier inflationary environment and we believe that we've largely protected ourselves on most of the exposure in that regard, but there could be some additional headwinds that we'd have to address in the future. But assuming a stable environment that we're in now and just the initiatives that we have in place, we should expect continued cost reduction on our module.
因此,當您將 Series 7 納入車隊時,您將看到每瓦總成本的優勢。所以每瓦的成本不會 - 它沒有達到頂峰。它將繼續朝著積極的方向發展。假設我們沒有進入一些更瘋狂的通脹環境,並且我們相信我們在這方面的大部分風險敞口上已經在很大程度上保護了自己,但未來可能會有一些額外的不利因素需要解決。但是,假設我們現在處於一個穩定的環境並且我們已經採取了一些舉措,我們應該期望我們的模塊成本會持續降低。
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Yes. And Joe, if you think about, as Mark said, a 4% to 6% cost per watt produced number this year, that's the decline. If you go back to the slides that we showed in our Q4 earnings and guidance call back in end of February, early March, there's a chart in there that shows you the driver of the cost reduction. Those still hold true. If you look through where we have what's the modules, efficiency, throughput and yield, those key drivers still exist. So we haven't updated that chart from a new cost perspective, but the same drivers of cost per watt reduction still exist there.
是的。喬,如果你想想,正如馬克所說,今年每瓦生產的成本為 4% 到 6%,這就是下降。如果您回到我們在 2 月底 3 月初的第四季度收益和指導電話會議中展示的幻燈片,那裡有一張圖表向您展示了成本降低的驅動因素。那些仍然成立。如果您查看我們擁有哪些模塊、效率、吞吐量和產量,這些關鍵驅動因素仍然存在。因此,我們沒有從新的成本角度更新該圖表,但每瓦成本降低的相同驅動因素仍然存在。
We also have on that chart bill of materials. As Mark mentioned, there are bill of material reductions that we would expect in ordinary course. However, we're in an inflationary environment, we also protected against some of the key drivers through the adjusters we have in our contracts. So that's another resource you can look to.
我們在該圖表上也有材料清單。正如 Mark 所提到的,我們預計在普通課程中會減少材料清單。但是,我們處於通脹環境中,我們還通過合同中的調節器保護了一些關鍵驅動因素。因此,這是您可以查看的另一種資源。
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Brian Lee。
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Been a lot of focus around the gross margins and the cadence here. So I guess I'll throw my question in the ring as well. The aluminum price, steel pricing environment, also freight, they've all sort of eased a bit recently per your earlier comments. When does it really start to impact the P&L and margins? I know you're talking about a 20% baseline per gross margin when things kind of normalize. And then on top of that, you get some of the tech adders that could take gross margins much higher. But as we think about, let's just say, 2023, the cadence, it doesn't appear all of that is necessarily going to normalize.
一直關注毛利率和這裡的節奏。所以我想我也會提出我的問題。鋁價、鋼鐵定價環境以及運費,根據您之前的評論,它們最近都有所緩解。它什麼時候真正開始影響損益和利潤?我知道當事情正常化時,你說的是每毛利率 20% 的基線。然後最重要的是,你會得到一些可以提高毛利率的技術加法器。但正如我們所想,讓我們說,2023 年的節奏,似乎所有這一切都不一定會正常化。
So fair to assume we're going to see a pretty gradual margin cadence through the rest of this year and into most of next year. And then with tech adders and some of the new capacity in India and Ohio, the real step-up starts to happen in '24. Just trying to get a sense for how we should budget expectations because there's a lot of moving parts there, obviously, over the next couple of years for the margin trajectory.
如此公平地假設我們將在今年剩餘時間和明年大部分時間看到一個相當漸進的利潤節奏。然後隨著技術加法器以及印度和俄亥俄州的一些新產能,真正的提昇在 24 年開始發生。只是想了解我們應該如何預算預期,因為很明顯,在接下來的幾年裡,利潤率軌蹟有很多變化的部分。
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Alexander R. Bradley - CFO
Yes, Brian. So we said that you're going to see the majority of the benefits come through in '24 onwards. You are going to see some benefit to 2023. If you look through the ASPs, we said those stay relatively flat across that horizon. From a cost per watt perspective, we said we're forecasting that cost per watt reduction this year. You're going to get the benefit of that next year, obviously.
是的,布賴恩。所以我們說你會在 24 年以後看到大部分好處。到 2023 年,您將看到一些好處。如果您查看 ASP,我們說這些在整個範圍內保持相對平穩。從每瓦成本的角度來看,我們說我們預測今年每瓦成本會降低。很明顯,明年你會從中受益。
From a sales perspective, we do have some protection next year. It's still not every contract, and the amount of protection varies as we had some different flavors of contracts in the early days before we moved to effectively orders today, just a straight pass-through of excess risk to the customer. So you're going to see some incremental protection or benefit from sales freight next year, but really the big push on that you're going to see in 2024.
從銷售的角度來看,我們明年確實有一些保護。仍然不是每份合同,而且保護的數量各不相同,因為我們在今天開始有效訂購之前的早期有一些不同風格的合同,只是將過度風險直接轉嫁給了客戶。因此,明年您將看到一些增量保護或從銷售運費中受益,但您將在 2024 年看到真正的巨大推動力。
From an adjusted perspective, we said before, the majority of the benefit that technology adjusters you're going to see being out in 2024 and beyond. And then from a commodity price basis, we said on the last call that we first started introducing the aluminum adjusted at that point, the majority of that was 2024 onwards. We've also recently started looking at steel as well for our Series 7 product, that will be 2024 onwards as well.
從調整的角度來看,我們之前說過,您將在 2024 年及以後看到技術調整者的大部分好處。然後從大宗商品價格的基礎上,我們在上次電話會議上說,我們首先開始引入當時調整的鋁,其中大部分是從 2024 年開始。我們最近也開始為我們的 7 系列產品尋找鋼材,這也將是 2024 年以後的產品。
So yes, you're going to see a little bit of benefit come through in 2023, but the majority of that's going to come through fully into 2024. You're also going to see the value of growth coming in mostly in 2024. But I would say that if you look at the timing expectation around our Perrysburg 3 factory you will see some contribution from that and potentially a little bit from the India factory coming through in '23 as well. So when you're doing your model, you'll get some benefit of growth coming through in 2023 as well.
所以是的,你會在 2023 年看到一點好處,但其中大部分將在 2024 年完全實現。你還將看到增長的價值主要在 2024 年出現。但是我想說,如果你看看我們 Perrysburg 3 工廠周圍的時間預期,你會看到一些貢獻,並且可能來自印度工廠在 23 年的一些貢獻。所以當你在做你的模型時,你也會從 2023 年的增長中獲得一些好處。
Operator
Operator
Your last question comes from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.
您的最後一個問題來自 Colin Rusch 與 Oppenheimer 的對話。
Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst
Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst
Can you talk a little bit about the progress in Europe from a perspective of adding capacity and the volume demand? Certainly, there's a major need there. And the 2-year time horizon that you talked about in terms of the incremental capacity on from your vendors.
您能否從增加產能和數量需求的角度談談歐洲的進展情況?當然,那裡有很大的需求。以及您談到的供應商增量容量方面的 2 年時間範圍。
But in terms of site selection, customers wanting to work with you, things like that, the preparations that you would see giving you the confidence to make those decisions. I'm just curious about an update there.
但是在選址方面,希望與您合作的客戶,諸如此類的事情,您會看到的準備工作讓您有信心做出這些決定。我只是對那裡的更新感到好奇。
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Mark R. Widmar - CEO & Director
Yes. So one of the things we did highlight, if you look at our pipeline as well, I mean, the diversity of our pipeline, especially with near term as well as long-term opportunities in Europe, has grown significantly. I was actually over in Europe a few weeks ago and talking with a number of different customers. And there's a really significant demand and opportunity for partnering with First Solar. No different than what we've seen here in the U.S. and what we've seen in India. I mean there's fatigue, and we referenced even a lawsuit, a very large litigation against one of the Tier 1 Chinese suppliers.
是的。所以我們強調的一件事,如果你也看看我們的管道,我的意思是,我們管道的多樣性,特別是在歐洲的近期和長期機會,已經顯著增長。幾週前我實際上在歐洲,並與許多不同的客戶交談。與 First Solar 合作有著非常重要的需求和機會。與我們在美國看到的和在印度看到的沒有什麼不同。我的意思是有疲勞,我們甚至提到了一場訴訟,一場針對一級中國供應商的非常大的訴訟。
They're fatigued by that, and they want to find someone who they can work with that ensures reliability and certainty. And obviously, there's a significant demand in the market for EU as they're trying to evolve off of their dependencies of Russian oil and gas, and they don't want to reposition that dependency then into another potentially adversarial country for their solar and climate change goals that they have. So we're in deep discussions with a number of counterparties over there trying to build an offtake agreement, and we're working through site selections already to try to figure out if we were to make that decision, what would be optimal.
他們對此感到厭煩,他們希望找到可以與他們一起工作的人,以確保可靠性和確定性。顯然,市場對歐盟的需求很大,因為他們正試圖擺脫對俄羅斯石油和天然氣的依賴,並且他們不想將這種依賴重新定位到另一個潛在的敵對國家,因為他們的太陽能和氣候改變他們的目標。因此,我們正在與那裡的一些交易對手進行深入討論,試圖建立一個承購協議,我們已經在進行選址工作,試圖弄清楚我們是否要做出那個決定,什麼是最優的。
We do have [silisites] in Eastern Germany. Obviously, the footprint isn't ideal for a Series 7 type product or 3.3 gigawatts of production. But look, we're also evaluating what is the right product for the European market. I mean could it be a combination of the utility scale or also could it be a smaller form factor, maybe a multi-junction tandem product for high-efficiency space constrained spaces. I mean it could be that's the right product to go to market in Europe. And then our Eastern Europe factory -- Eastern Germany factory looks a lot better to accommodate a footprint around that size.
我們在德國東部確實有 [silsites]。顯然,對於 7 系列類型的產品或 3.3 吉瓦的生產而言,佔用空間並不理想。但是看,我們也在評估什麼是適合歐洲市場的產品。我的意思是它可以是公用事業規模的組合,也可以是更小的外形尺寸,也許是用於高效空間受限空間的多結串聯產品。我的意思是它可能是在歐洲上市的正確產品。然後我們的東歐工廠——東德工廠看起來要好得多,以適應這種規模的佔地面積。
So I would say I'm very encouraged. A lot of opportunity. I think it's a matter of just making the commitment and the contractual obligations and offtakes and be able to secure multiyear supply agreements to have provided a little more confidence we would like to have to enable manufacturing in the EU. I think it's pretty promising right now. We still would like to see some movement on the policy side a little bit. I think they're doing a number of positive things there, even including things like CO2 footprint requirements, restrictions as it relates to forced labor and some of the other challenges that we're also seeing in the U.S. trying to deal with their supply chains that are dependent upon Chinese production. So a lot of good things happening in the EU, and it's a very important market for us, and we're looking at what's the best way to serve it.
所以我會說我很受鼓舞。很多機會。我認為這只是做出承諾和合同義務和承購併能夠確保多年供應協議的問題,這為我們希望在歐盟實現製造提供了更多的信心。我認為現在很有希望。我們仍然希望看到政策方面的一些變化。我認為他們在那裡做了很多積極的事情,甚至包括二氧化碳排放要求、與強迫勞動有關的限制以及我們在美國也看到的一些其他挑戰,試圖處理他們的供應鏈依賴於中國生產。歐盟發生了很多好事,這對我們來說是一個非常重要的市場,我們正在尋找最好的服務方式。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you very much for joining. You may now disconnect.
目前沒有其他問題。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。非常感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。