Frontline Plc (FRO) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fourth quarter 2025 Frontline plc earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised today's conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 Frontline plc 2025 年第四季業績電話會議和網路直播。（操作人員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Lars Barstad, CEO. Please go ahead.

現在我謹將會議交給今天的主講人，執行長拉爾斯·巴斯塔德先生。請繼續。

Thank you very much. In discussions with the market factors in recent weeks, a recurring phrase has been heard. People basically saying, what a time to be alive. Frontline has been around through many cycles, but the tanker markets do actually evolve over time. We will argue that we've never been in a cycle like this, where indices and freight derivatives weigh so heavily in the freight pricing mechanism.

非常感謝。在最近幾週與市場因素的討論中，反覆出現一個短語。人們基本上都在說，生活在這樣一個時代真好。Frontline 經歷了許多周期，但油輪市場確實會隨著時間的推移而演變。我們將論證，我們從未經歷過這樣的週期，指數和貨運衍生性商品在貨運定價機制中佔據如此重要的地位。

This fuels almost violent moves as we proceed. For every 200,000 per day per day fixture done physically, there is an exponential number of contractual obligations that are triggered, giving this market a new dimension and very exciting dynamics.

這助長了我們接下來採取的近乎暴力的行動。每天每完成 20 萬筆實際交易，就會觸發指數級成長的合約義務，這為市場帶來了新的維度和非常令人興奮的動態。

Before I give the word to Inger, I'll run through the TC numbers. So let's move to slide 3 in the deck. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Frontline achieved 74,200 per day on our VLCC fleet, $53,800 per day on our Suezmax fleet and $33,500 per day on our LRG/Aframax fleet. So far, in the first quarter '26, 92% of our VLCC days are booked at 107,100 per day. 83% of our Suezmax days is booked at $76,700 per day and 67% of our LR2/Aframax days are booked at 62,400 per day.

在向英格下達指令之前，我會先核對TC資料。那我們來看投影片中的第 3 張。2025 年第四季度，Frontline 的 VLCC 船隊日收入達到 74,200 美元，Suezmax 船隊日收入達到 53,800 美元，LRG/Aframax 船隊日收入達到 33,500 美元。截至目前，2026年第一季，我們的VLCC船舶預訂率達92%，日租金為107,100美元；我們的蘇伊士型油輪預訂率達83%，日租金為76,700美元；我們的LR2/阿芙拉型油輪預訂率達67%，日租金為62,400美元。

Again, all numbers in this table are on a low to discharge basis with the implications of Ballast at the end of the quarter, this incurs. However, for the VLCCs, there's little mystery left with such a high percentage in the book. I'll now let Inger take you through the financial highlights.

再次強調，本表中的所有數字均以低排放為基礎，並考慮季度末的壓載物的影響，這將產生相應影響。然而，對於超大型油輪（VLCC）來說，由於其在書中佔比如此之高，已經沒有什麼神秘之處了。現在，我將讓英格爾帶您了解財務方面的重點內容。

Thanks, Lars, and good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let's then turn to slide 4. We report profit of $228 million or $1.02 per share and adjusted profit of $230 million or $1.03 per share in the fourth quarter of 2025. The adjusted profit in this quarter increased by $188 million compared with the previous quarter, and that was primarily due to an increase in our TCE earnings from $248 million in the previous quarter to $424.5 million in this quarter. And that again was a consequence of higher TCE rates.

謝謝你，拉爾斯。女士們、先生們，早安/午安。接下來我們來看第4張投影片。我們報告稱，2025 年第四季利潤為 2.28 億美元，即每股 1.02 美元；調整後利潤為 2.3 億美元，即每股 1.03 美元。本季調整後利潤比上一季增加了 1.88 億美元，這主要是由於我們的 TCE 收益從上一季的 2.48 億美元增加到本季的 4.245 億美元。而這又是三氯乙烯（TCE）使用率升高所造成的後果。

We also had some decrease in finance and ship operating expenses and also some potation in other income and expenses.

我們的財務和船舶營運費用也有所減少，其他收入和支出也有所調整。

Ship operating expenses, in particular, decreased $7.1 million from previous quarter, mainly due to an increase in supplier rebates of $7.1 million. Let's then look at the balance sheet on slide 5. The balance sheet movements this quarter are mainly related to ordinary items and also prepayment of debt under revolving reducing credit facilities. Frontline has a solid balance sheet and strong liquidity of $705 million in cash and cash equivalents and that includes undrawn amounts of revolver capacity, marketable securities and also minimum cash requirements as in the bag as per December 31, '25. We have no meaningful debt maturities until 2030.

船舶營運費用尤其比上一季減少了 710 萬美元，這主要是由於供應商返利增加了 710 萬美元。接下來我們來看看第 5 頁的資產負債表。本季資產負債表變動主要與一般項目以及循環遞減信貸額度下的債務提前償還有關。Frontline 擁有穩健的資產負債表和強勁的流動性，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，其現金及現金等價物為 7.05 億美元，其中包括未提取的循環信貸額度、有價證券以及最低現金要求。2030 年之前我們沒有重大債務到期。

In January 2026, we sold eight of our oldest first-generation equals per total sales price of $831.5 million and asset commissions and repayment of existing debt on the vessels, the transaction is expected to generate net cash proceeds of approximately $477 million million.

2026 年 1 月，我們出售了 8 艘最老的第一代同級船舶，總售價為 8.315 億美元，加上資產佣金和償還船舶現有債務，預計該交易將產生約 4.77 億美元的淨現金收益。

In parallel, we acquired nine latest generation scrubber-fitted eco-VLCC newbuildings from affiliate of MM for an aggregate purchase price of $1.224 billion. We will pay approximately 25% of the purchase price in the first quarter of 2026. And and 75% is due upon delivery of each vessel. The company intends to finance this acquisition with cash and then 60% long-term debt financings.

同時，我們從 MM 的關聯公司收購了 9 艘最新一代配備脫硫裝置的環保 VLCC 新造船，總收購價為 12.24 億美元。我們將於 2026 年第一季支付約 25% 的收購價款。其中75%的款項應在每艘船交付時支付。該公司計劃以現金支付此次收購的資金，然後透過60%的長期債務融資來完成剩餘部分。

Let's look at slide 6. That's complete composition and cash breakeven rates and OpEx. Our fleet consists of 41 VLCCs, 21 Suezmax tankers and 18 LR2 tankers, has an average age of 7.5 years and consists of 100% eco vessels, so where 57% are scrubber-fitted. We estimate average cash breakeven rates for the next 12 months of approximately $25,000 per day for businesses. $23 700 per day for suzmax tankers and $23,800 per day for LR2 tankers.

我們來看第6張投影片。這是完整的組成、現金損益平衡率和營運支出。我們的船隊由 41 艘 VLCC 油輪、21 艘蘇伊士型油輪和 18 艘 LR2 型油輪組成，平均船齡為 7.5 年，全部為環保船舶，其中 57% 安裝了脫硫裝置。我們預計未來 12 個月企業的平均現金損益平衡點約為每天 25,000 美元，蘇式油輪約為每天 23,700 美元，LR2 型油輪約為每天 23,800 美元。

That gives a fleet average estimate of about $24,300 per day. This number includes dry dock costs for five VLCCs, two Suezmax tankers and eight LR2 tankers. And the fleet average estimate, excluding dry dock cost is about $23,300 per day or $1,000 less.

這樣算下來，機隊平均每天的成本估計約為 24,300 美元。這個數字包括五艘超大型油輪、兩艘蘇伊士型油輪和八艘LR2型油輪的乾船塢費用。而船隊的平均估算值（不包括乾船塢費用）約為每天 23,300 美元，比預計的少 1,000 美元。

We record OpEx, including dry dock in the fourth quarter, up $9,600 per day for VLCCs, $7,600 per day for Suezmax tankers and $12,400 per day for LR2 tankers. This number includes dry dock of three VLCCs and three LR2 tankers. The Q4 25 fleet average OpEx excluding dry dock, was $7,600 per day.

我們記錄了第四季度的營運支出（包括乾船塢費用），VLCC 每天增加 9,600 美元，蘇伊士型油輪每天增加 7,600 美元，LR2 型油輪每天增加 12,400 美元。這個數字包括三個超大型油輪和三個LR2型油輪的乾船塢。2025 年第四季船隊平均營運支出（不含乾船塢費用）為每天 7,600 美元。

Lastly, let's look at slide 7 cash generation. Following as we entered into one year time charter agreements, and we also had fleet renewal in the first quarter, the spot base for the next 12 months is about 24,400 days. Frontline has substantial cash generation potential with 27,700 earnings days annually.

最後，我們來看第 7 張投影片—現金流產生。由於我們簽訂了一年期定期租船協議，並且在第一季進行了船隊更新，未來 12 個月的現貨租期約為 24,400 天。Frontline 具有巨大的現金產生潛力，每年有 27,700 個獲利日。

As you can see from this slide, the cash generation potential basis current fleet, TCE rates and TCE as of February 27 is $2.8 billion or $12.51 per share, which provides a cash flow yield of 34% basis current share price. And a 30% increase from this current spot market will increase cash generation potential to $3.7 billion or $16.84 per share. Likewise, a 30% decrease from current spot market, we decreased the cash generation potential to $1.8 billion or $8.19 per share.

從這張投影片中可以看到，根據目前的船隊規模、TCE 費率和截至 2 月 27 日的 TCE，現金產生潛力為 28 億美元，即每股 12.51 美元，以當前股價計算，現金流收益率為 34%。如果現貨市場價格上漲 30%，現金產生潛力將增加到 37 億美元，即每股 16.84 美元。同樣，由於現貨市場價格下降了 30%，我們將現金產生潛力下調至 18 億美元，即每股 8.19 美元。

With this, I leave the word to Lars again.

接下來，我再次把麥克風交給拉爾斯。

Thank you very much, Inger. So let's move to slide 8 and look at the current market highlights. So oil demand seems to be growing healthily outright, but with key focus on nonsanctioned molecules, creating a substantial year-on-year changes in trade as shown on the illustration of the graph on the right-hand side of the slide. We have a very clear a market environment. We talk about US

非常感謝你，英格。接下來我們來看第 8 張投影片，了解目前的市場亮點。因此，石油需求似乎總體上健康成長，但重點放在非制裁分子上，導致貿易額出現顯著的同比變化，如幻燈片右側圖表所示。我們擁有非常清晰的市場環境。我們談論美國

India trade, US Iran, Israel discussions and US EU Ukraine Russia talks. Business liberation and further pressure on Russia in addition to around tension creates strong tailwinds on for us operating in the compliant market of oil transportation. We're also in an environment where weakening US

印度貿易、美國伊朗、以色列磋商以及美國歐盟烏克蘭俄羅斯會談。商業自由化和對俄羅斯的進一步施壓，以及圍繞俄羅斯的緊張局勢，為我們這些在石油運輸這一順應性市場中運作的人們創造了強勁的順風。我們還處於一個美國實力削弱的環境。

dollar is supportive of global oil demand. and the inflationary economic environment is supportive of the commodities in general. Asset prices for ships is appreciating firmly order books are building materially in 2029 and onwards. But with the 20-year age cap observed, future supply remains manageable.

美元支撐了全球石油需求，而通膨的經濟環境總體上也對大宗商品價格有利。船舶資產價格穩定上漲，訂單量將在 2029 年及以後大幅成長。但由於年齡上限為 20 歲，未來的供應量仍可控制。

Let's move to slide 9 and look at the flow. Global crude oil in transit continues to be at elevated levels. On the graph on the right, we've added the TD3C Baltic index by some refer to as the Dow Jones of the freight markets. And there, you can see how sensitive this index seemingly is to the oil trading on the 7 Cs. In this picture, we see sanction crudes moving slower, particularly for the Russian barrels or being stored, particularly for the Iranian barrels.

讓我們翻到第 9 張投影片，看看流程圖。全球原油運輸量持續處於高位。在右側的圖表中，我們添加了 TD3C 波羅的海指數，該指數被一些人稱為貨運市場的道瓊斯指數。由此可見，該指數似乎對 7C 原油交易非常敏感。從這張圖我們可以看到，受制裁原油的流通速度較慢，尤其是俄羅斯原油；或者說，受制裁原油的儲存速度較慢，尤其是伊朗原油。

This creates an increased dark fleet utilization and the dark fleet then needs new capacity or attract new capacity into the dark vessel pool.

這導致暗艦隊利用率提高，暗艦隊因此需要新的運力或吸引新的運力加入暗艦船池。

These vessels are pulled out of the compliance fleet. OPEC Middle East exports is growing firmly. But also adds to this increased demand for compliant and approved tonnage. But despite the watering freight levels we're facing right now, we see very few charters, in fact, non-breaking this 20-year age cap, which supports the case that we have been arguing for years. Strong import growth to Far East and India contradicting the energy transition narrative and especially for China.

這些船隻從合規船隊中撤出。歐佩克中東地區的出口正在穩定成長。但這同時也增加了對合規和經批准噸位的需求。儘管我們現在面臨著貨運量激增的問題，但實際上，我們看到很少有包船不打破 20 年船齡上限，這支持了我們多年來一直堅持的觀點。對遠東和印度的強勁進口成長與能源轉型論調相悖，尤其對中國而言更是如此。

I think people are starting to get familiarized with the energy addition, not transition term.

我認為人們開始熟悉「能源增加」這個概念，而不是「過渡」這個概念。

Long haul ARPS are challenged and just to explain what an orbit, that's basically the price difference between one continent to another in respect of oil, which basically, if it's at a wide enough point a trader or an oil major can make a profit, moving the oil over long distances and selling it in a different market. Freight is, of course, a key component in this and by example, if the freight from -- for a VLCC from US Gulf to China is $18 million, the charter is actually exposed to $9 per barrel freight. And basically, this spread between the two oil markets need to accommodate that.

長途ARPS面臨挑戰，為了解釋什麼是軌道，它基本上是指石油從一個大陸到另一個大陸的價格差異，基本上，如果這個差異足夠大，貿易商或石油巨頭就可以通過長途運輸石油並在不同的市場出售來獲利。當然，運費是其中的關鍵組成部分。例如，如果一艘 VLCC 從美國墨西哥灣到中國的運費為 1800 萬美元，那麼租船實際上要承擔每桶 9 美元的運費。基本上，這兩個石油市場之間的價差需要考慮到這一點。

This has put some pressure on these ARPS, and we've seen fairly little volume moving from the US to the Far East. But again, if oil needs to move or when it needs to move these differentials will just have to price to accommodate this spread. The incremental marginal barrel is now compliant. We've also discussed this in previous calls is that we don't see any kind of fantastic production growth in Iran.

這給這些ARPS帶來了一些壓力，我們看到從美國到遠東的貨運量相當少。但話說回來，如果油價需要波動，或者在需要波動的時候，這些價差就必須調整價格以適應這種價差。新增邊際桶裝產量現已符合規定。我們在之前的電話會議中也討論過，我們沒有看到伊朗出現任何驚人的生產成長。

We don't see any kind of fantastic production growth coming out of Russia. But we do see compliant oil production and exports growing. The big factor is, of course, OPEC, reversing cuts, but then in how countries like Brazil, Guyana performing extremely well.

我們沒有看到俄羅斯出現任何驚人的生產成長。但我們確實看到合規石油的生產和出口正在成長。當然，最大的因素是歐佩克逆轉減產，但巴西、圭亞那等國的表現也非常好。

And these are the new molecules coming to market and they need compliant ships. Let's move to slide 9 and look a little bit at the fleet development. So the order book continues to grow.We're basically in a market where decades high prices for modern tonnage if tonnage is even there for sale. That is on the water, meaning that the vessel can trade straight away is so high that it pushes actors into the yards. Other asset classes as LNG containers brokers continue to populate the Arts order books but we do see tanker ordering accelerating for 2029, especially in China.

這些都是即將上市的新分子，它們需要符合規範的船舶。讓我們翻到第 9 張投影片，稍微看一下艦隊發展。因此，訂單量持續成長。我們現在所處的市場，現代船舶的價格達到了幾十年來的最高水平，而且即便有船舶可供出售，價格仍然居高不下。那是在水上，這意味著船隻可以立即進行交易，價格如此之高，以至於將演員推向了船塢。其他資產類別，如液化天然氣貨櫃經紀商，繼續為Arts訂單簿增添內容，但我們確實看到油輪訂單在2029年加速成長，尤其是在中國。

As the chart on the top right hand in the case, it shows basically the efficiency loss of a vessel as it ages. And the curve starts to dip around 10 years of age. And then further deteriorates into almost ignorable when it gets to 20 years. With this in mind, -- as we move forward and move into 2029, we're going to meet the generations of ships that were delivered around 2010 and onwards. And this is a large population of ships that then again will be 20 years of age and exposed to this deteriorating efficiency curve.

如案例右上角的圖表所示，它基本上顯示了船舶隨著老化而導致的效率損失。大約從 10 歲開始，曲線開始下降。而到了 20 年，情況就進一步惡化到幾乎可以忽略不計。考慮到這一點，——隨著我們向前邁進，進入 2029 年，我們將遇到 2010 年左右及以後交付的幾代船舶。而且，這些船隻數量龐大，船齡都已達 20 年，將面臨效率不斷下降的問題。

With that in mind, although ordering is accelerating, and we have a kind of high amount of ships expected to come in 2029, and it's basically being added for every day. It's not alarming with this in mind considering the feet age or the age of the fleet and the fleet profile.

考慮到這一點，雖然訂單正在加速成長，預計 2029 年將有大量船舶交付，而且基本上每天都在增加。考慮到船齡、船隊年齡和船隊概況，這並不令人擔憂。

We see it as we have two to three years of a very good runway before the supply could become a worry. We also expect going forward that the yard capacity will grow and especially in China. And it's not necessarily new yards, but it's yards that haven't built tankers or at least not been specialized in tankers, but they're now adding worth in order to cater for this industry. We believe there is another trend that will evolve as we proceed here, considering or assuming this rate environment is sustainable, that Korea and Japan will increase its focus on building tankers in general, and we also see in special as the margins on these contracts start to compete with what they can achieve for containers or LNGC.

我們認為，在供應出現問題之前，我們有兩到三年的非常充裕的供應期。我們也預計，未來堆場產能將會成長，尤其是在中國。而且不一定是新建的船廠，而是以前沒有建造過油輪或至少沒有專門建造過油輪的船廠，但現在為了迎合這個行業，它們正在增加自身的價值。我們認為，隨著我們繼續前進，還會出現另一種趨勢。假設目前的運價環境是可持續的，韓國和日本將更加重視建造油輪，我們也看到，隨著這些合約的利潤率開始與貨櫃船或液化天然氣運輸船的利潤率競爭，這一趨勢將更加明顯。

Let's move into slide 11, where we have the familiar tables. I'm not going to spend too much time on this slide, only to say that in our methodology and we try to be consistent, we use data that's based on when an IMO number is registered. This means that these statistics will always be a little bit slow to react. The general assumption in the market is that the order book-to-fleet ratio for VLCC is probably already at 20%. But this will become more and more evident as these contracts are being registered and the IMO numbers are being created.

讓我們來看第 11 張投影片，這裡有我們熟悉的表格。我不會在這張投影片上花太多時間，只想說，在我們的方法論中，為了保持一致性，我們使用基於 IMO 號碼註冊時間的資料。這意味著這些統計數據總是會有些反應遲鈍。市場上的普遍假設是，VLCC 的訂單量與船隊規模之比可能已經達到 20%。但隨著這些合約的登記和 ​​IMO 編號的創建，這一點將變得越來越明顯。

With that, I think we move on to the summary. And I've changed the headline here. So we also see take the center stage, Suezmax and Aframax to follow question mark. It's actually not much of a question mark because the Suezmaxes are already on the way. and the Aframaxes is boiling.

接下來，我想我們可以進入總結部分了。我已經修改了標題。因此，我們看到蘇伊士型和阿芙拉型船也成為了焦點，而它們能否緊隨其後則充滿疑問。其實這不算什麼疑問，因為蘇伊士型油輪已經在建造中，阿芙拉型油輪也正在緊鑼密鼓地建造中。

We are in a fundamentally tight market condition that yields extreme volatility. Oil demand and supply is developing positively, but especially for compliant molecules. The global tanker fleet age profile and efficiency loss tighten the supply-demand balances Asset prices are on the move at both spot and period markets support the investment decisions.

我們目前處於基本面緊張的市場環境中，這導致了極高的市場波動性。石油需求和供應正在積極發展，尤其是對合規分子而言。全球油輪船隊船齡結構和效率下降加劇了供需平衡的緊張，現貨市場和定期市場的資產價格波動為投資決策提供了支撐。

The volatile political landscape fuels, energy and security conditions where tankers tend to thrive. And Frontline's efficient business models tend to produce material shareholder returns as we proceed.

動盪的政治局勢為油輪提供了燃料、能源和安全保障，而這正是油輪蓬勃發展的溫床。隨著我們不斷推進，Frontline 高效的商業模式往往會為股東帶來實質的回報。

Thank you very much. And with that, I will open up for questions.

非常感謝。接下來，我將接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) John Chappell, Evercore ISI.

（操作說明）John Chappell，Evercore ISI。

Lars, so many things to ask you, but I'm not going to be greedy. I'll keep it to two. So the first thing is, obviously, we're in a parabolic situation right now. We've seen this once or twice before. But as you said, what's the underlying factors seem to be very different this time.

拉爾斯，我有很多事想問你，但我不想太貪心。我只說兩個。所以首先，很顯然，我們現在處於拋物線式的局面。我們以前見過一兩次這種情況。但正如你所說，這次的根本原因似乎大不相同。

But rates don't go to the moon, there's a certain point where there's a ceiling. So what's the catalyst to provide a plateau and maybe a little bit of an easing from here? Is that a geopolitical event? Is it a seasonal event? Is it a Synacor event?

但利率不會無限成長，總會有一個上限。那麼，有什麼因素能夠促成市場趨於平穩，甚至在此基礎上略有緩和呢？那是一項地緣政治事件嗎？這是季節性活動嗎？這是 Synacor 的活動嗎？

What takes a little bit of the froth out of the market, which would still be very fantastic rates, but maybe lower than where they're moving this week.

這會稍微抑制一下市場的泡沫，利率仍然會非常誘人，但可能會比本週的水平低一些。

No, it's an extremely good question. I think the answer is kind of seasonality. There is also kind of normal seasonality. We're actually not unused to having fairly kind of poised markets during this time of the year, many times due to US refineries going into turnaround, allowing for more barrels to be exported.

不，這確實是個非常好的問題。我認為答案與季節性有關。此外，也存在一定的季節性變化。事實上，我們並不陌生於每年的這個時候市場相對平靜，很多時候這是因為美國煉油廠進入檢修期，因此可以出口更多的原油。

And so we're kind of -- we're actually going into that phase now. So there will be potentially a few more months where we actually can't sustain these rates depending on how the flows work -- but then there is going to be a summer lull, and it's based almost inevitable.

所以我們現在實際上正進入那個階段。因此，根據流量情況，未來幾個月我們可能都無法維持這樣的價格——但之後會有一個夏季淡季，幾乎是不可避免的。

But whether if it's a summer lull that moves from $200,000 a day to 100 or that is almost impossible to gauge. Also I think one needs to note that there is one major importer in these markets being China, and they have built an enormous amount of inventory over the years. They could, for any reason, choose to basically turn down the speed a little bit for a period of time. And this will also create volatility. But this is -- and I expect this to occur.

但究竟是夏季淡季導致日收入從 20 萬美元降至 10 萬美元，還是其他情況，幾乎無法估量。另外，我認為需要指出的是，這些市場中有一個主要的進口國是中國，多年來他們已經累積了巨額庫存。他們可能出於任何原因，選擇在一段時間內稍微降低速度。這也會導致市場波動。但這是——而且我預料到這種情況會發生。

But it's, of course, extremely impossible or extremely difficult to say when something like that might happen.

當然，要說這種事情何時會發生，是極其不可能或極其困難的。

Yes, definitely. The other one is also may be a bit difficult, but it's just something I've been wondering about. Nobody has done what your Korean friends are doing right now for like seemingly 50 years. And that includes your shareholder who many people probably would have anticipated would have been the one to try this. Why hasn't anyone tried to corner the VLCC market in the past?

是的，當然。另一個問題可能也有點難，但我一直很好奇。在過去五十年裡，似乎沒有人像你的韓國朋友那樣做事。這其中也包括你的股東，很多人可能都預料到會是他來嘗試這件事。為什麼過去沒有人嘗試壟斷超大型油輪（VLCC）市場？

And where could it go spectacularly wrong for them, just what are the risks, I guess? And I guess the final thing is how do you position Frontline so that you're not affected by if it does go spectacularly wrong for the supplier?

那麼，對他們來說，究竟哪些方面會出大問題呢？風險究竟是什麼？最後我想問的是，如何定位 Frontline，才能確保即使供應商出現嚴重問題，你也不會受到影響？

Yes. No, it's a good question. It's -- and you're right, it hasn't really been done in a material manner in the tanker market for at least longer than I can remember. Well, there is a parallel story from the mid-2000s involving a certain person from Taiwan, but this was in the dry bulk space. And -- but the key to his success in dry and the potential key to the success that the Korean actor may might have is actually that you go in a market that is already fundamentally tight.

是的。不，這是個好問題。沒錯──你說得對，至少在我記憶中，油輪市場已經很久沒有真正實質地進行過這種改變了。嗯，2000 年代中期也發生過類似的故事，涉及一位來自台灣的人，但這發生在乾散貨領域。但是——他在乾旱地區取得成功的關鍵，以及這位韓國演員可能成功的潛在關鍵，實際上是進入本質上已經非常緊張的市場。

And then you don't need much to weigh it kind of or to slow the supply side of tanker capacity before you get these wireless moves.

然後，你不需要太多的力氣來衡量它，或在進行這些無線操作之前減緩油輪運力的供應端。

And also, as most people are familiar with, if you look at how freight prices just empirically -- the minute you go from 90% utilization to 95%, how freight prices -- the moves are exponential. So that would kind of be my explanation to why this is possible. I'm not going to comment on why Mr. Frederickson hasn't looked at this. But the thing is we are a stock listed public company.

而且，正如大多數人所熟悉的那樣，如果你從經驗上觀察貨運價格——一旦利用率從 90% 提高到 95%，貨運價格的變化——就是指數級的。這就是我對這件事發生的可能性的解釋。我不會評論弗雷德里克森先生為什麼沒有查看此事。但問題是，我們是一家上市的公眾公司。

This is, of course, easier to do if you are a private entrepreneur in this market and, of course, willing to risk a substantial amount of money in such a game, where it can go wrong. In these situations, and we've seen them before potentially to a smaller scale. It ends up being -- it's almost like a game of chicken, who can hold the longest.

當然，如果你是這個市場上的個體企業家，並且願意在這種可能失敗的遊戲中冒著投入大量資金的風險，那麼這樣做就更容易了。在這些情況下，我們以前可能也看過類似情況，只是規模較小。最後的結果就像一場膽量遊戲，看誰能撐到最後。

So this is what makes me extremely excited over the months to come and the summer and so forth because we'll see some very interesting dynamics kind of come to play. But one thing I'm 100% certain of is that there will be volatility.

所以，接下來的幾個月，包括夏天等等，讓我感到非常興奮，因為我們將會看到一些非常有趣的動態出現。但我百分之百確定的是，市場會有波動。

Sherif Elmaghrabi, BTIG.

謝里夫·埃爾馬格拉比，BTIG。

It seems like charters are seeing what you're seeing and willing to take more ships on term. Would you say that's the case and the TCE market is more active? Or is it just that rates have risen to a level that shipoders are more comfortable with?

看來包租公司也看到了你所看到的，並且願意長期租賃更多船舶。您認為情況確實如此，TCE市場更加活躍嗎？或者只是因為運費上漲到了貨主們更能接受的水平？

No, I think as I kind of touched upon in the introduction today is that this market has evolved quite a lot in the last 20, 25 years. And if you -- by example, if you look at the Middle East market, for instance, for VLCC, transport from pain tail from Middle East to Asia. This market used to have a lot of physical liquidity, what happened over the years is that more and more actors are using the index itself to price the freight. So basically during contracts, floating contracts that prices of the Baltic index quote to the point where actually very little liquidity is actually transacted in the market.

不，我認為正如我今天在引言中提到的，這個市場在過去的 20 到 25 年裡發生了很大的變化。例如，如果你看看中東市場，例如超大型油輪（VLCC）的運輸，從中東到亞洲的運輸。這個市場過去有很多實體流動性，但這些年來，越來越多的參與者開始使用指數本身來為貨運定價。所以基本上，在合約期間，浮動合約的價格使得波羅的海指數報價達到一定程度，以至於市場上實際交易的流動性非常少。

So price visibility has been quite difficult actually sometimes do a parallel for every barrel -- physical barrel of rent oil that is produced, it tends, it trades tenfold on paper. And we've seen a little bit of the same kind of tendency or trend in freight. And this becomes a problem then if everybody are kind of pricing their freight of an index, that runs out of control. And then suddenly, you need to hedge and then you need to access the paper market or you need to buy back hedges for the guys who have taken ships on time charter and basically hedge the part of the curve in that exposure and so forth.

因此，價格可見度其實一直相當困難，有時對每一桶實際生產的租賃原油進行類比，其帳面交易價格往往會是實際交易價格的十倍。我們在貨運領域也看到了類似的趨勢。如果每個人都以指數為基準來定價，那麼就會出現問題，而且會失控。然後突然間，你就需要進行對沖，然後你就需要進入紙船市場，或者你需要為那些租船的人回購對沖產品，基本上是對沖該風險敞口曲線的一部分等等。

And you end up with a very vibrant FFA market, which every broker today with testify to. And you get these kind of ebb and flows out on the curve from panic to some sort of quiet until the panel kicks in again. So because over the last couple of weeks, we've seen -- you see the index. It's just relentlessly printing what is physically actually being done. But it's not like 10 cargoes are fixed today.

最終你會得到一個非常活躍的 FFA 市場，這一點如今每一位經紀人都可以作證。你會看到這種情緒在曲線上起伏波動，從恐慌到某種平靜，直到面板再次啟動。因為在過去的幾周里，我們看到——你看，指數。它只是不斷地把實際發生的事情印出來。但這並不代表今天就有10件貨物的問題能夠解決。

It's two to three cargoes may be fixed today. But the amount of pricing exposure around that quote is enormous and this triggers kind of is almost like self-propelled move going forward.

今天可能有兩到三批貨物可以修復。但圍繞該報價的價格風險敞口非常大，這幾乎就像是一種自我驅動的前進行動。

But I think it's important to note, this is not a manipulation the market is fundamentally extremely tight. But of course, you could argue that maybe freight rates are moving ahead basically due to this tightness as the panic ebbs and flows.

但我認為需要指出的是，這不是市場操縱，市場本質上非常緊張。當然，你也可以說，貨運價格上漲可能主要是因為恐慌情緒的起伏而導致的供應緊張。

Well, that's very interesting. Something else that I thought was interesting. And was your comments specifically about new tanker yard capacity coming online. And so I apologize if you mentioned this and I missed it, but do you have a sense of what the turnaround time on these projects might be and when first ships might hit the water?

嗯，這很有意思。還有一件事我覺得很有趣。你的評論是否具體指的是即將投入使用的新油輪堆場容量？所以，如果您之前提到過這件事而我錯過了，我深表歉意，但您是否知道這些項目的周轉時間大概是多久，以及第一批船隻何時可能下水？

No, it's 2029. So a yard that is now marketing kind of a new birth that they're going to build, but it's not like a greenfield because the artist is there. but they're just kind of introducing a new birth, I can say, accommodative we also see build. That is 2029, so three years.

不，現在是2029年。所以，現在這個場地正在宣傳一種他們即將打造的全新事物，但它不像一片綠地，因為藝術家已經在那裡了。他們只是在推出一種全新的事物，可以說，我們也看到了一個適應性強的建設。那是2029年，也就是三年後。

(Operator Instructions) Devin Sano, Tech Investments.

（操作員說明）Devin Sano，科技投資。

I just want to ask you, what will be your strategy on spot versus time charter as you go through these interesting times. And -- that's my first question.

我想問一下，在當前這個特殊的時期，您在即期租船和定期租船方面的策略是什麼？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. No, and it's a good question. As we said before, we kind of our proposition to our investors is, of course, to give you spot returns. So basically, you don't have to buy a ship, you can just buy frontline. But at times, we will choose to use elevated markets to try and secure revenues.

是的。不，這確實是個好問題。正如我們之前所說，我們對投資人的承諾當然是給予你們即時回報。所以基本上，你不需要買船，只需要購買前線部隊。但有時，我們會選擇利用高位市場來嘗試確保收入。

We've also kind of -- we don't have a fixed policy or anything, but we have like a golden rule of one-third. So in theory, our Board will be comfortable under certain conditions that we get up to time charter coverage of 30%. We're, of course, in -- as you've seen from the stuff we did, we reported the 71 year time charters.

我們也有一些——我們沒有固定的政策之類的，但我們有一個類似三分之一的黃金法則。因此，理論上講，在某些條件下，我們的董事會可以接受我們獲得高達 30% 的定期租船覆蓋率。我們當然參與其中——正如你從我們所做的工作中看到的那樣，我們報道了 71 年的定期租船合約。

In the report today, we also reported another one that was done like a week later. So we are in these models of Brandi to try and secure some longer-term income. But we are so constructive about this market that we are not really engaging yet, at least in the longer term because we actually do believe that there is still some to go for the longer-term contracts, but they are also appreciating quickly.

在今天的報道中，我們也報導了大約一週後發生的另一起事件。所以，我們採用 Brandi 的這些模式，是為了確保獲得一些長期收入。但我們對這個市場持非常樂觀的態度，所以我們還沒有真正參與其中，至少在長期來看是這樣，因為我們確實相信長期合約還有一些上漲空間，但它們也在快速升值。

So I'm not going to exclude anything. But you will not find frontline in a situation where we've put 50% of our exposure out on time charter because that's not really what our investors are after, we believe.

所以我不會排除任何可能性。但是，在我們把 50% 的風險敞口投入定期租船的情況下，你不會看到一線業務，因為我們認為，這並不是我們的投資者真正想要的。

Sure. And I see the dark fleet, which we've been struggling and finally, it's coming with sanctions and whatever was needed to be done has been done now. In this -- though the probability is 50%, if Russian crude oil and if the bar stops and the sanctions are lifted, is also going to get into a compliance fleet, do you see in foreseeing such scenario what will happen to the market?

當然。我看到了我們一直在努力應對的黑暗艦隊，最終，它帶著制裁而來，所有需要做的事情現在都已經完成了。在這種情況下——雖然機率只有 50%，但如果俄羅斯原油價格下跌，制裁解除，俄羅斯原油價格也進入合規範圍，您認為在預見這種情況時，市場會發生什麼變化？

Yes. So if you'd ask me this in like September 2022, I would have said it would be like an immediate kind of bearish kind of proposition. But so much time has passed. And if the Russian barrel becomes a compliant barrel kind of you'll probably get half of the capacity back into the compliance on the shipping side. into the compliant fold.

是的。所以，如果你在 2022 年 9 月問我這個問題，我會說這會是一個直接看跌的觀點。但時間已經過了很久。如果俄羅斯槍管符合規範，那麼在運輸方面，你可能會有一半的容量重新符合規範。

But the other half will either be -- or will actually be disqualified basically due to age. And this is the same for the Iranian or the fleet servicing the Iranian oil with a lot of ships, yes, but these are ships that were supposed to be recycled years ago, basically due to age.

但另一半人要么會獲得參賽資格，要么實際上會因為年齡而被取消資格。對於伊朗或為伊朗石油提供服務的船隊來說，情況也是如此，這艘船數量眾多，但這些船隻基本上由於船齡過老，本應在多年前就被回收利用。

So very few of them are actually going to come back into kind of compliant trade. And also the scrutiny in the compliance market on ship's history is extremely kind of tough. So it's not very easy kind of whitewash a tanker that's been involved in elicit trades. But one point I need to make, we've actually seen this before when sanctions were eased towards Iran in 2016. They have a national fleet, national tanker company ITC and of course, any part of a sanctions lifting kind of solution will also involve nationally controlled shipping companies.

所以，真正能夠恢復正常交易的寥寥無幾。此外，合規市場對船舶歷史的審查也極為嚴格。所以，要為一艘參與非法交易的油輪洗白並不容易。但我需要指出一點，我們其實以前也見過這種情況，2016 年放鬆對伊朗的製裁時就出現過。他們擁有國家船隊、國家油輪公司 ITC，當然，任何解除制裁的解決方案都將涉及國家控制的航運公司。

So for Russia, that will be so conflated potentially others.

所以對俄羅斯來說，這可能會與其他國家的情況混為一談。

But again, just analyzing those fleets age is a problem. So actually, we would welcome these molecules into the compliance fold.

但是，僅僅分析這些艦隊的船齡就是一個問題。所以實際上，我們歡迎這些分子加入合規體系。

Sure. And the last one is that if this sustains and obviously -- and you do the best to get make out of the cash becomes a cash pile. Obviously, you're paying out a large part of it, but do you think at what point in time you will start deleveraging balance sheet or you will stay levered?

當然。最後一點是，如果這種情況持續下去，而且顯然——如果你盡力讓現金變現，現金就會變成一大筆錢。顯然，你們正在償還其中很大一部分，但你們認為什麼時候會開始降低資產負債率，還是會繼續保持高槓桿狀態？

No, our intention is to stay levered because for every share you buy in frontline, you get like a 1.4% ship exposure equivalent, basically due to our leverage. So we still believe that the model and obviously, I can't rule anything out, but we have no inclination to delever apart from what actually happens when you pay down debt. So the point of cash is actually going to you guys.

不，我們的目的是保持槓桿，因為你每買一股前線股票，就能獲得相當於 1.4% 的船舶投資曝險，這基本上要歸功於我們的槓桿。所以我們仍然相信這種模式，當然，我不能排除任何可能性，但除了償還債務的實際結果之外，我們沒有去槓桿化的傾向。所以，這筆錢其實是給你們的。

(Operator Instructions) There are no further questions for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to speaker Lars Barstad for any closing remarks.

（操作說明）今天沒有其他問題了。現在我謹將會議交給發言人拉爾斯·巴斯塔德，請他作總結發言。

Thank you very much for listening in, and I hope you are as excited as I am to what the future is going to bring. I think it's the tanker markets turn now. So let's enjoy the ride. Thank you very much.

非常感謝您的收聽，希望您和我一樣對未來充滿期待。我認為現在輪到油輪市場了。所以，讓我們享受這段旅程吧。非常感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在你們都可以斷開連結了。祝你今天過得愉快。