Frontline Plc (FRO) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the third quarter 2025 Frontline earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that this conference is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加 Frontline 2025 年第三季財報電話會議和網路直播。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Lars Barstad, CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我謹將會議交給今天的第一位發言人，執行長 Lars Barstad。請繼續，先生。

Thank you very much. Dear all, thank you for dialing in to Frontline's quarterly earnings call. It's noticeable how everyone has frontline and in the general tanker industry for that sake, works with an energetic spring in their step these days. We have previously argued that this market as money, and we have finally started to collect some of it. I'll try not to jinx it by using caps lock on absolutely everything, but it is a mild understatement that we are positively excited by the developments in this market.

非常感謝。各位，感謝大家撥入Frontline的季度財報電話會議。顯而易見，如今所有在前線工作以及從事油輪行業的人員，都精神抖擻、活力四射。我們之前就論證過，這個市場就是貨幣，而我們終於開始收集其中的一部分了。我盡量避免在所有文字中都使用大寫字母，以免帶來厄運，但毫不誇張地說，我們對這個市場的發展感到非常興奮。

That started to materialize during the third quarter of the year. Before I give the word to Inger, I'll run through our TCE numbers on Slide 3, in the deck. In the third quarter of 2025, Frontline achieved $34,300 per day on our VLCC fleet, $35,100 per day on our Suezmax fleet and $31,400 per day on our LR2/Aframax fleet.

這種情況從今年第三季開始逐漸顯現。在向 Inger 下達指令之前，我將在簡報的第 3 張投影片上講解一下我們的 TCE 資料。2025 年第三季度，Frontline 的 VLCC 船隊每天獲利 34,300 美元，Suezmax 船隊每天獲利 35,100 美元，LR2/Aframax 船隊每天獲利 31,400 美元。

So far in the third quarter of '25, we have booked 75% of our VLCC days at $83,300 per day, 75% of our Suezmax days at $6,600 per day and 51% of our LR2/Aframax days at $42,200 per day. Again, all numbers in this table are on a low to discharge basis, with the implication of validate state the end of the quarter, this incurs.

截至 2025 年第三季度，我們的 VLCC 航次已預訂 75%，日租金為 83,300 美元；Suezmax 型油輪航次已預訂 75%，日租金為 6,600 美元；LR2/Aframax 型油輪航次已預訂 51%，每日租金為 42,200 美元。再次強調，本表中的所有數字均以低至排放為基礎，這意味著在季度末驗證狀態會產生影響。

This means that although we continue to fix extraordinary freight rates, every day, we are dependent on the cargo being loaded before New Year's eve to account for that income in Q4. I'll now let Inger take you through the financial highlights.

這意味著，儘管我們每天都在製定特殊的貨運價格，但我們仍然需要依靠在新年夜之前裝載的貨物才能在第四季度確認這部分收入。現在，我將讓英格爾帶您了解財務方面的重點內容。

Thanks, Lars, and good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Let's then turn to Slide 4. Profit statement, and you can look at some highlights. We report profit of $40.3 million or $0.18 per share and adjusted profit of $42.5 million or $0.19 per share in the third quarter.

謝謝你，拉爾斯。女士們、先生們，早安/午安。接下來我們來看第 4 張投影片。利潤表，您可以從中了解一些亮點。第三季度，我們公佈的利潤為 4,030 萬美元，即每股 0.18 美元；調整後的利潤為 4,250 萬美元，即每股 0.19 美元。

The adjusted profit in the third quarter decreased by $37.8 million compared with the previous quarter and that was primarily due to a decrease in our time charter earnings from $283 million in the previous quarter to $248 million in the third quarter. That was such a result turned over TCE rates, in addition to fluctuations in other income and expenses.

第三季調整後利潤較上一季減少了 3,780 萬美元，這主要是由於我們的定期租船收入從上一季的 2.83 億美元減少到第三季的 2.48 億美元。除了其他收入和支出的波動之外，這樣的結果也導致了TCE利率的波動。

With respect to ship operating expenses, they increased $3.1 million from previous quarter and that was due to a decrease in supplier rebates of $2.5 million and cost of $1.1 million due to change of ship management for seven LR2 tankers. This was partially offset by a decrease in general running costs of $0.5 million. The administrative expenses, excluding the synthetic option revaluation loss of $5.7 million this quarter, and $1.7 million the previous quarter, decreased by $0.2 million from previous quarter.

就船舶營運費用而言，比上一季增加了 310 萬美元，這是由於供應商返利減少了 250 萬美元，以及由於七艘 LR2 型油輪的船舶管理變更而產生的 110 萬美元成本。但這部分被一般營運成本減少 50 萬美元所抵銷。不包括本季 570 萬美元的合成選擇權重估損失（上一季為 170 萬美元），行政費用比上一季減少了 20 萬美元。

Let's then look at the balance sheet on Slide 5. The balance sheet movements this quarter are mainly related to ordinary items, the sale of one Suezmax tanker and also the prepayment of debt under revolving reducing credit facilities. Frontline has a solid balance sheet and strong liquidity of $819 million in cash and cash equivalents including undrawn amounts of revolver capacity, marketable securities and in cash requirements banks as of December 30, 2025. We have no meaningful debt maturities until 2030 and no newbuilding commitment. Let's turn look at Slide 6.

接下來我們來看看第 5 張投影片上的資產負債表。本季資產負債表變動主要與普通項目、出售一艘蘇伊士型油輪、提前償還循環遞減信貸額度下的債務有關。截至 2025 年 12 月 30 日，Frontline 擁有穩健的資產負債表和強勁的流動性，現金及現金等價物（包括未提取的循環信貸額度、有價證券和銀行存款）達 8.19 億美元。2030 年之前我們沒有重大債務到期，也沒有新的造船承諾。讓我們來看第6張投影片。

That is the fleet composition, cash breakeven rate and tax. Our fleet consists of 41 receipts, 21 Suezmax tankers and 18 LR2 tankers. It has an average age of 7-years and consists of 100% eco-vessels where 56% are scrubber fitted. We converted seven existing credit facilities with aggregate outstanding term loan balances of $405.5 million, and on revolving credit capacity of $87.8 million in to revolving reducing credit facilities of up to $493.4 million in September 2025. We subsequently prepaid a total of $374.2 million in September, October and November '25 leading to a reduction in fleet average cash breakeven base of approximately $1,300 per day for the next 12-months.

這就是車隊組成、現金損益平衡率和稅收。我們的船隊由 41 艘收割機、21 艘蘇伊士型油輪和 18 艘 LR2 型油輪組成。該船平均船齡為 7 年，全部為環保船舶，其中 56% 安裝了洗滌器。2025 年 9 月，我們將 7 項現有信貸安排（未償還定期貸款餘額總計 4.055 億美元，循環信貸額度為 8,780 萬美元）轉換為循環遞減信貸安排，最高可達 4.934 億美元。隨後，我們在 2025 年 9 月、10 月和 11 月預付了總計 3.742 億美元，導致未來 12 個月的船隊平均現金損益平衡基數每天減少約 1,300 美元。

We estimate average cash breakeven rates for the next 12-months of approximately $26,000 per day for BCC, $23,300 per day for Suezmax tankers and $23,600 per day for LR2 tankers with a fleet average estimate of about $24,700 per day. This includes product cost for 14 VLCC, 2 Suezmax tankers and 10 LR2 tankers.

我們估計未來 12 個月內，BCC 的平均現金損益平衡價格約為每天 26,000 美元，蘇伊士型油輪約為每天 23,300 美元，LR2 型油輪約為每天 23,600 美元，船隊平均盈虧平衡價格估計約為每天 24,700 美元。這包括 14 艘 VLCC、2 艘蘇伊士型油輪和 10 艘 LR2 型油輪的產品成本。

The fleet average estimate seeing dry dock cost is about $23,100 or $1,600 per day less. We recorded OpEx, including dry dock in the third quarter of $9,000 per day for VLCCs, $8,100 per day for Suezmax tankers and $9,100 per day for LR2 tankers. This includes dry-dock of one VLCC and finalization of dry dock of one Suezmax tanker, which entered dry dock in the second quarter.

船隊平均估計乾船塢費用約為 23,100 美元，即每天節省 1,600 美元。第三季度，我們記錄了營運支出（包括乾船塢費用），VLCC 每天 9,000 美元，Suezmax 型油輪每天 8,100 美元，LR2 型油輪每天 9,100 美元。這包括一艘超大型油輪的乾船塢維修和一艘蘇伊士型油輪的乾船塢維修的最終完成，該油輪於第二季度進入乾船塢。

The Q3 '25 average OpEx excluding was $8,500 per day. Then lastly, let's look at Slide 7 and cash generation. Frontline has a substantial cash generation potential with 30,000 earnings stats annually. As you can see from the slide, the cash generation potential basis currency and TCE rates for DTC for VLCC, TD20 for Suezmax tankers and average of T25 and TC1 for Aframax/LR2 tankers from the Baltic Exchange as of November 18, 2025, is to $1.8 billion or $8.15 per share providing a cash flow yield of 33% basis current share price. A 30% increase from current spot market will increase the cash generation potential to $2.6 billion or $11.53 per share.

2025 年第三季平均營運支出（不含其他費用）為每天 8,500 美元。最後，我們來看看第 7 張投影片和現金流生成。Frontline 具有巨大的現金創造潛力，每年可產生 30,000 筆收益統計資料。從幻燈片中可以看到，截至 2025 年 11 月 18 日，波羅的海交易所 VLCC 的 DTC、Suezmax 型油輪的 TD20 以及 Aframax/LR2 型油輪的 T25 和 TC1 的平均值，以貨幣和 TCE 股價計算的潛在現金生成額為 18 億美元，即每股收益為 3% 的現金流量為當前 3%。與目前現貨市場價格相比，上漲 30% 將使現金產生潛力增加到 26 億美元，即每股 11.53 美元。

With this, I'll leave the word to Lars again.

接下來，我再次把麥克風交給拉爾斯。

Thank you, Inger. So let's move to Slide 8 and have a look at what's going on in our market. As many of you have noted, oil in transit has become kind of more mainstream sort out for investors that focus on shipping. It's now at the record high. This happens as export volumes grow from -- especially the Americas or around the Atlantic Basin.

謝謝你，英格。那麼讓我們翻到第 8 張投影片，看看我們的市場正在發生什麼。正如許多人所指出的那樣，對於專注於航運的投資者而言，運輸中的石油已經成為一種比較主流的分類方式。現在已達到歷史最高水準。隨著出口量的成長，這種情況就會發生——尤其是在美洲或大西洋盆地週邊地區。

And we see a positive development in how oil trade policy does affect behavior, and it has opened the arbitrage between Atlantic Basin and Asia. The OPEC voluntary production cuts reversals are starting to express themselves in real export volume gains. Year-on-year for October were up 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels per day looking at the Middle East producers, excluding Iran.

我們看到石油貿易政策對行為產生了積極影響，並打開了大西洋盆地和亞洲之間的套利機會。歐佩克自願減產政策的逆轉開始體現在實際出口量的成長。10 月份，中東產油國（不包括伊朗）的石油產量年增 120 萬至 130 萬桶/日。

There are increasing logistical challenges around the trade of sanction ex post oil, and this was further amplified as Lukoil and Rosneft were put on the functions. We have a picture where we see a very firm refinery margin environment supporting refinery crude runs. So it bases the question, when are we going to see perform resale asset values are starting to reflect the hike in freight rates as order books for tankers are near full through 2028.

制裁後石油貿易面臨的物流挑戰日益增加，而盧克石油公司和俄羅斯石油公司承擔起這些職能，更使這項挑戰進一步加劇。我們看到的情況是，煉油利潤環境非常穩健，支撐著煉油廠的原油處理量。因此，問題在於，我們何時才能看到轉售資產價值開始反映出運費上漲的趨勢，因為油輪的訂單量已接近飽和，直至 2028 年。

Let's move to Slide 9. The heading is the arb is back. the behavior of special India, but also China is yielding an increased demand for compliant crudes, especially in the Middle East. This raises the crude price level for local crudes in the Middle East, causing Atlantic Basin grades to price their way into Asia.

我們來看第9張投影片。標題是「套利機會回歸」。印度的特殊行為，以及中國的行為，導致對合規原油的需求增加，尤其是在中東地區。這將推高中東當地原油的價格水平，導致大西洋盆地原油的價格上漲，進而影響亞洲市場。

Since 2022 and Russia's nation of Ukraine, the long-haul trade has suffered. We've seen Russian oil taking Asian market share and Europe, relying more on Atlantic Basin barrels. This looks to reverse to some degree and could be a sustainable development going forward and means that we are back to the old-school tanker market, where the VLCC with its economies of scale leads the pack.

自 2022 年以來，俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突導致長途貿易遭受重創。我們看到俄羅斯石油正在蠶食亞洲和歐洲的市場份額，而歐洲則更依賴大西洋盆地的石油。這種情況似乎在某種程度上發生了逆轉，並且可能成為未來的永續發展趨勢，這意味著我們又回到了傳統的油輪市場，其中 VLCC 憑藉其規模經濟優勢處於領先地位。

This VLCC centric trade pattern change has also been driven by very positive export numbers from Brazil, our new producer, Guyana, Canada through the TMX pipeline and more recently, also US. The incremental barrel to the market now is compliant oil and compliant oil needs vessels.

這種以超大型油輪為中心的貿易模式變化，也得益於巴西（我們的新生產商）、圭亞那、加拿大（透過 TMX 管道）以及最近美國的非常積極的出口數據。目前市面上新增的原油是合規原油，而合規原油則需要船舶運輸。

That means unsanctioned vessels and predominantly below 20-years of age. If this supply trend continues on the oil side, we are likely to see a sustained constructure in the oil market developing. This will imply in inventory builds. We are low on inventories in most regions of the world. It's unlikely to imply floating storage due to the financing costs which is much higher now than it was in the last cycle.

這意味著這些船隻未經許可，而且船齡大多在 20 年以下。如果石油供應方面的這種趨勢持續下去，我們可能會看到石油市場形成一個持續的結構。這將對庫存建置產生影響。全球大部分地區的庫存都比較低。由於目前的融資成本遠高於上一個週期，因此不太可能採用浮動儲能。

We have this effect to the market. But there is an equally interesting trading pattern that may develop. And it's called time. When you can load the barrel in the US and sell it 2-months after in Asia, you're actually having a tailwind on that trade as the price of crude is increasing over time.

我們對市場產生了這種影響。但還有一種同樣有趣的交易模式可能會出現。這就是時間。如果你能在美國裝桶，兩個月後在亞洲賣掉，那麼隨著原油價格的上漲，你實際上就佔了這筆交易的順風。

Let's move to Slide 10. So the net fleet development, and this is kind of a recurring discussion I have with investors when we are out presenting our company. We have virtually recycling or scrapping. But we have actually a substantial order book, not a scarily big one, but there is still vessels to come and that order book has been increasing. So what we've tried to do here is to put forward a couple of scenarios just to explain why we are so constructive on this market.

我們來看第10張投影片。所以，關於淨艦隊發展，這算是我們在向投資者介紹公司時經常討論的一個主題。我們實際上已經實現了回收或報廢。但實際上我們有相當可觀的訂單，雖然數量不算特別多，但還有船隻即將交付，而且訂單量一直在增加。因此，我們在這裡嘗試提出幾個情景，以解釋為什麼我們對這個市場如此具有建設性態度。

So as -- so the order book continues to grow, and this is mainly due to a limited offering of available modern tonnage on the water. This basically means that if you are a ship owner or an investor that wants to buy a ship, it's -- the best way to get access of tonnage is actually to go to the yard and you're not penalized by missing out on freight, even though the ship is being delivered in 18- to 24-months.

因此，訂單量持續成長，這主要是由於水上可用的現代化船舶噸位有限。這基本上意味著，如果您是船東或投資者，想要購買船舶，那麼獲得噸位的最佳方式實際上是去船廠，即使船舶在 18 到 24 個月內交付，您也不會因為錯過運費而受到懲罰。

But this looks to change now. Now that you have spot rates that can give you $5 million to $6 million on the bottom line for a 60-day voyage you start to think, should I go and access the retail market and get a ship that I can fix in the next cycle? Or do I go to the yard and order ship that will be delivered in more than 24-months.

但現在看來這種情況可能會改變。現在，即期運價可以讓你60天的航程淨賺500萬到600萬美元，你開始思考，我是否應該進入零售市場，買一艘船，然後在下一個週期進行維修？還是我應該去船廠訂購一艘24個月以上才能交付的船？

This means that the owners can actually now start to pay up for resale, and it makes economical sense to do so at teaming these rates stayed around for a while. We continue to see the trend that other asset classes are populated in the yards order books. There is now limited capacity less than 2028.

這意味著業主現在實際上可以開始支付轉售費用了，而且考慮到這些價格已經維持了一段時間，這樣做在經濟上是有意義的。我們持續看到其他資產類別在船廠訂單簿中佔有一席之地的趨勢。目前產能有限，少於 2028 年。

If you look at overall age profile of the global tanker market, and this is basically the key fundamental part of at least how we see this tanker market about going forward. or as I've said previously, the event of the old economy due to lack of investment in particularly tanker tonnage over a long period of time.

如果你觀察全球油輪市場的整體船齡結構，這基本上是我們對油輪市場未來走向的關鍵基礎。或者正如我之前所說，這是由於長期以來對油輪噸位投資不足而導致的舊經濟模式的體現。

We are in a situation where we will, every year, have a new bunch of ships that are crossing this magical age cap, which is we put up 20-years. If you look at the VLCC chart here on the top right-hand side, just to explain how we're thinking, if you assume absolutely no scrapping, no ships disappearing into the dark and basically, every new ship being delivered on top of the existing fleet, we will have around 15% fleet growth towards 2019 -- 2029, sorry.

我們現在面臨的情況是，每年都會有一批新的船舶達到我們設定的20年船齡上限。如果你看一下右上角的 VLCC 圖表，為了解釋我們的想法，假設絕對沒有拆解，沒有船隻消失，並且基本上每艘新船都是在現有船隊的基礎上交付的，那麼到 2019 年到 2029 年，我們的船隊將增長約 15%，抱歉。

But if you assume that we also see at least stop effectively trading when they turn 2022, that growth will only be 3.4% through 2029. With what is actually the more realistic case is that VLCC are either scrapped start to trade sanctioned oil or for other reasons, no longer part of the effective fleet at 20-years, will have a negative fleet growth with the existing order book, a negative fleet growth of 2% towards 2029. The other charts are basically or show in more or less the same.

但假設到 2022 年，這些公司至少停止有效交易，那麼到 2029 年，成長率將僅為 3.4%。更現實的情況是，VLCC 要么被拆解，開始運輸受制裁的石油，要么由於其他原因，在 20 年後不再是有效船隊的一部分，這將導致船隊負增長，到 2029 年，現有訂單簿將導致船隊負增長 2%。其他圖表基本上相同，或顯示的內容大同小異。

I think this is kind of the key reason why we believe that there is some longevity in the market we have in front us. Move to Slide 11, order books. And I've been quite repetitive on this. The order book on the asset classes that we are exposed to is in total, 16.5% of the existing fleet, 19- above 20-years. If you put the threshold at 15-years, 44.3% of that fleet is about 15% and 21.6% of that fleet is sanctioned by either or OFAC, UK, AU and oligos.

我認為這正是我們相信眼前的市場具有長期發展潛力的關鍵原因。移至第 11 張投影片，訂購書籍。我在這件事上已經反覆強調過了。我們所涉資產類別的訂單總額佔現有車隊的 16.5%，車齡在 19 年至 20 年以上。如果將門檻設為 15 年，那麼艦隊的 44.3% 約為 15%，而該艦隊的 21.6% 受到美國財政部外國資產管制辦公室 (OFAC)、英國、澳洲和寡頭集團的製裁。

We also have the highest average age in the tanker fit for more than 20-years. So let's move to Slide 12, and the summary, and I called it all school bury market. because some of the characteristics we see in this market, and I've been in this market for quite a while, meaning that I was actually around in the period from 2002 until 2008.

我們擁有平均船齡最長的油輪，適航船齡超過 20 年。那我們來看第 12 張投影片，也就是總結部分。我把它統稱為“學校埋葬市場”，因為我們在這個市場中看到的一些特徵，而且我在這個市場已經待了相當長一段時間了，也就是說，我實際上是從 2002 年到 2008 年這段時間都在從事這個行業。

We are actually seeing some of the same characteristics whether it's a proper trade going on between a shocker and an owner and the brokers actually need to do some proper work to find the right ships and cargoes struggle to get offers basically. So we have high utilization. We have strong oil exports, and we have a positive change in trade rates.

實際上，我們看到了一些相同的特徵，無論是在承運商和船東之間進行的正規交易，還是經紀人需要認真尋找合適的船舶和貨物才能獲得報價，基本上都存在一些問題。所以我們的利用率很高。我們的石油出口強勁，貿易匯率也出現了正面變化。

As I've gone through limited growth in the compliant tanker fleet and with compliance, I also add under 20-years. And we also see the sanction trade sucking more tonnage in due to logistical challenges. The overall age profile is key, as I've just mentioned. And despite the populated order books, effective fleet growth remains muted. We have firm refining margins and the winter market has actually already started.

由於合規油輪船隊的成長有限，而且合規性也不到 20 年，我還補充道。我們也看到，由於物流的挑戰，制裁貿易正在吸收更多的噸位。正如我剛才提到的，整體年齡結構是關鍵。儘管訂單充足，但實際船隊成長依然緩慢。我們的煉油利潤率很穩定，而且冬季市場實際上已經開始了。

We are in a situation kind of from global SMB that we might come into a prolonged period of oversupply. And this may yield interesting trading developments, firstly, for oil, but also for shipping. And I can assure you, Frontline are prepared to offer outside shareholder returns with our efficient profitable feet.

我們目前的情況有點像全球中小企業面臨的情況，我們可能會進入一段較長的供應過剩時期。這可能會帶來有趣的貿易發展，首先是石油貿易，其次是航運貿易。我可以向你保證，Frontline 已做好準備，憑藉我們高效盈利的營運模式，為外部股東帶來回報。

Thank you very much, and we'll open for questions.

非常感謝，接下來我們將開放提問環節。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Jonathan Chappell, Evercore ISI.

謝謝。（操作說明）Jonathan Chappell，Evercore ISI。

Thank you. Good afternoon. Lars, to your last point about the outsized shareholder returns and then tying it into this financing update that you provided today, completely understand. I think the dividend policy will remain as robust as it's been since the start of 2024. But are we looking at a new era now where you're looking at deleveraging the balance sheet as well.

謝謝。午安.Lars，關於你最後一點提到的股東回報過高，以及你今天提供的融資更新，我完全理解。我認為股利政策將維持自 2024 年初以來的穩健態勢。但我們是否正處於一個新時代，在這個時代，我們也需要關注資產負債表的去槓桿化？

You're clearly in a strong enough market where the dividends can be strong, but you're still generating enough cash where you can deleverage and you've done quite a bit of it in the last 3-months. So are we looking at a new front line where the balance sheet becomes as strong as maybe some of your public peers without violating your dividend policy?

顯然，你身處一個足夠強勁的市場，股息可以很高，但你仍然產生了足夠的現金流，可以降低槓桿率，而且在過去的 3 個月裡，你已經做了相當多的降低槓桿率的工作。那麼，我們是否正在展望一個新的前線陣地，在這個陣地上，資產負債表可以像一些上市同業一樣強勁，同時又不違反股利政策？

No. We are different from our peers. We're actually not particularly comfortable working with this kind of fairly low LTVs. I think as a result of we're being hesitant to invest in this market for reasons I actually described a little bit in the presentation. We've had values moving ahead.

不。我們與同齡人不同。我們其實不太習慣這種相對較低的客戶終身價值（LTV）。我認為，由於我在演講中略微提及的原因，我們對投資這個市場猶豫不決。我們一直秉持著價值觀向前邁進。

So resale values moving ahead of the market. We've had kind of -- since we are prepared, we want our assets to generate cash as quickly as possible. we've been hesitant to stretch kind of far out in time, tying up CapEx on assets that will come in a year or 2-years time. And so basically under a time charter rates haven't really defended this either. So we kind of just by pure being quite conservative on our financial analysis.

因此，轉售價值的走勢領先於市場水準。我們一直以來都秉持著這樣的理念──既然我們已經做好了準備，就希望我們的資產能盡快產生現金流。我們一直不願意把投資期間拉得太長，把資本支出投入一年或兩年後才能到位的資產。所以基本上，定期租船費率也沒有真正支撐起這個局面。所以我們基本上是在財務分析上採取相當保守的態度。

We haven't really been up for doing any massive moves since we did the Eurona transaction. So I think that's more a result of it or that's more the reason for us being in the disposition rather than actively trying to reduce our debt.

自從完成 Eurona 交易以來，我們一直沒有真正打算進行任何大規模的舉措。所以我認為這更多的是債務的結果，或者說這是我們處於被動狀態而不是積極嘗試減少債務的原因。

Okay. And then just a follow-up. I want to push back a little bit on Slide 10, but then offer an opportunity for you to push back to that. I think the premise of scrapping ships at 22-years and at 20-years, given the rate outlook that you just laid out in the prior slides, is a bit misleading. I mean people don't scrap ships when they're making that much money.

好的。然後還有一個後續問題。我想對第 10 張投影片提出一些異議，但同時也想給你們一個機會，讓你們對此提出異議。我認為，鑑於您在前幾張幻燈片中闡述的費率前景，在船齡 22 年和 20 年時拆解船舶的前提有點誤導性。我的意思是，人們不會在賺那麼多錢的時候就把船拆解掉。

So maybe could you explain to us how those ships become less efficient or they don't have full utilization, and they're still kind of like come out of the net fleet supply without them being actually scrapped because if investors are waiting to see big scrapping numbers over the coming years with rates as strong as you think they are, and I think they are, they may be disappointed. So how do those ships become less efficient and still kind of help utilization without actual scrapping?

所以，您能否解釋一下，這些艦船是如何變得效率降低或無法充分利用，卻仍然從淨艦隊供應中退出，而實際上卻沒有被拆解的？因為如果投資者期待在未來幾年看到大量的拆解數量，而拆解率又像您想像的那樣強勁（我認為確實如此），他們可能會失望。那麼，這些船舶如何在不實際拆解的情況下，降低效率並仍然有助於資源利用？

Well, as you know, I was going to push back on that. The thing is that why we haven't seen scrapping or recycling to be more politically correct, is the fact that you have an alternative use of these vessels, right? And the alternative use in the old days, it could be a conversion into floating storage or production units. There could be kind of other -- it could be floating tanks or whatever. But the alternative use that's been going on ever since 2019 or '18, '19 is the trade of sanctioned oil.

嗯，你也知道，我本來打算反駁這件事。問題在於，我們之所以沒有看到報廢或回收（更符合政治正確的說法），是因為這些船隻還有其他用途，對吧？在過去，它的另一個用途是改造成浮式儲能或生產裝置。可能還有其他類型的裝置——像是浮動水箱之類的。但自 2019 年或 2018 年、2019 年以來一直存在的另一個用途是製裁石油的交易。

And that has obviously paid a lot of money to the owners that have been willing to engage in this trade. The thing is that we circle around the compliant market, and we relate ourselves to the compliant oil market. And in the compliant oil market, even if you're Exxon or even if you're Shell or Glencore or whoever you are, you trade on the margin.

顯然，這給那些願意參與這項交易的業主帶來了豐厚的回報。問題在於，我們圍繞著合規市場打轉，並將自己與合規石油市場聯繫起來。在合規的石油市場中，即使你是埃克森美孚、殼牌、嘉能可或其他任何公司，你也都在進行保證金交易。

If you're going to trade on the margin and you're trying to ensure 2 million barrels of oil on a plus 20-year ship, that price of that insurance is going to be so high that you will struggle to actually make the ends meet. So it means that -- and it also limits your optionality on how you can trade that oil because you have to take away kind of 80% of the terminals that just have a blanket on vessels that are older than 20-years of age.

如果你要進行保證金交易，並且試圖為一艘航程超過 20 年的船舶投保 200 萬桶石油，那麼這種保險的價格將會非常高，以至於你很難維持收支平衡。所以這意味著——這也限制了你交易石油的選擇，因為你必須排除大約 80% 的碼頭，這些碼頭對船齡超過 20 年的船舶實施統一管制。

So effectively -- and we actually see this. You don't really need to look up which ships are sanctioned by OFAC. You can just draw a line at 20-years. the vessels on the Suezmax that are above 20-years and not sanctioned, you can literally count on one hand. And we actually see a big efficiency loss in the tanker space when the ship reaches 18-years.

效果確實如此——而且我們確實看到了這一點。你其實不需要去查哪些船隻受到了美國財政部外國資產管制辦公室（OFAC）的製裁。你可以簡單地以 20 年為界。在蘇伊士型油輪上，船齡超過 20 年且未受制裁的船舶，一隻手就能數得過來。事實上，當油輪船齡達到 18 年時，我們發現其效率會大幅下降。

So I think a little bit of a proof in the pudding here is that the compliant oil market has actually had a terrible development in volume for a sustained period of time. But still, we have had poor rates, but we haven't had like car crash kind of rates.

所以我認為，事實勝於雄辯，因為合規石油市場的交易量實際上已經持續出現了糟糕的成長。但是，儘管我們的事故率仍然很高，但還沒有達到車禍那樣的事故率。

And this is basically due to the fact that ships become less tradable, less efficient, limited use actually starting from the year -- from the current 17.5-years. So it could be that we'll have a wall of scrapping, but I actually don't think that's going to happen. I think kind of the alternative use is going to be around for a long time, unless, of course, the sanctions are lifted all around.

這主要是因為從今年——也就是目前的17.5年——開始，船舶的貿易價值會降低，效率會下降，使用範圍也會受到限制。所以，我們可能會面臨大量的船舶報廢，但我認為這種情況不會發生。我認為這種替代用途將會長期存在，除非制裁全面解除。

But now we also have another problem here is that a sanctioned vessel is not easily recycled because the recycling industry is actually a real business, and they access financing and they deal in many ways in dollars.

但現在我們又面臨另一個問題，那就是受制裁的船隻不容易回收，因為回收業實際上是一個真正的行業，他們可以獲得融資，而且在很多方面都以美元進行交易。

Where you are right, where ships can easily live kind of past the 20-year age kind of ceiling is if it's for specific use let's use India as an example. If you're India flag and for an Indian refinery you, of course, control the entire value chain on that oil trade. That shift can easily kind of trade until it's 25-years. but this will only be for the purpose of transporting field stock to a Indian refinery.

你說的沒錯，如果船舶用於特定用途，例如在印度，那麼它的使用壽命很容易超過 20 年的上限。如果你代表印度，並且是一家印度煉油廠，那麼你當然可以控製石油貿易的整個價值鏈。這種轉變很容易持續25年之久，但這只是為了將油田庫存運送到印度煉油廠。

But that is only a small portion of the market and even Indian refiners realize that they can't have too much of an exposure in that market because basically, you have virtually no other options than to do exactly that back and forth between the Middle East and India.

但這只是市場的一小部分，就連印度煉油商也意識到，他們不能在這個市場投入太多，因為基本上，除了在中東和印度之間來回運輸之外，你幾乎沒有其他選擇。

Sherif Elmaghrabi, BTIG.

謝里夫·埃爾馬格拉比，BTIG。

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Lars, maybe first to just follow up on that line of thought about the sanctioned fleet. India and China are lifting more compliant barrels, as you said. And so there's more noncompliant vessels that maybe have less work. And I'm wondering what you see happening to the dark fleet right now, given there's less work and also maybe in the next 6- to 12-months, if that's a different picture.

嘿，下午好。謝謝您回答我的問題。拉爾斯，或許應該先跟進一下關於授權艦隊的思路。正如你所說，印度和中國正在進口更多符合規定的原油。因此，不合規的船舶數量更多，它們的工作機會可能也更少。我想知道你認為現在暗黑艦隊會如何發展，因為工作量減少了，而且未來 6 到 12 個月的情況可能會有所不同。

Yeah. No, it's -- there is actually -- so for once, there are an increasing amount of vessels just sitting at Anchor with no crew on and keys left in the ignition. These are kind of the first-generation sanctioned fleet that came out of Iran and Venezuela kind of 5-, 6-years ago. And there, the -- you will probably never be able to locate as the owner. But then you have kind of what's in between.

是的。不，確實如此——所以現在，越來越多的船隻停泊在錨地，船上沒有船員，鑰匙還留在點火器裡。這些是大約 5、6 年前從伊朗和委內瑞拉引進的第一代受制裁艦隊。而且，作為所有者，你可能永遠無法找到它。但還有介於兩者之間的某種狀態。

And there are actually initiatives or also commercially things that are being worked on. where you basically -- you can buy sanction vessels, but you need a license from the most important licenses from the US. And there is actually some motion in that work now. where, of course, since the federal state in the US was closed for a while here, it can be particularly efficient for the last couple of months.

實際上，目前有一些措施或商業項目正在進行中。基本上，你可以購買受制裁的船隻，但你需要獲得美國最重要的許可證。現在這項工作確實取得了一些進展。當然，由於美國聯邦政府先前關閉了一段時間，因此在過去的幾個月裡，這項工作的效率尤其高。

But there is a discussion ongoing to -- if one can kind of set up some sort of mechanism where against a fine you can actually access the recycling market, but only the recycling market alone. So I think that could be a solution as we proceed there.

但目前正在討論的是——是否可以建立某種機制，透過繳納罰款來進入回收市場，但只能進入回收市場。所以我認為這或許是我們繼續前進的解決方案。

One side being that local governments actually need to take action to avoid environmental damage for those vessels left to key in but secondly, a growing industry around this kind of license, but also find recycling work being done because if you have -- if you're basically going to buy a sanctioned vessels, it's actually worth zero. But then, of course, if it's worth half the normal recycling price, there is actually still money in it. So -- but I don't know if that's going to be the solution, but at least that is something that is being discussed.

一方面，地方政府確實需要採取行動，避免那些被遺棄的船隻對環境造成損害；另一方面，圍繞這種許可證的產業正在發展，而且人們也在進行回收工作，因為如果你——如果你基本上要購買一艘被批准的船隻，它實際上一文不值。當然，如果它的價值是正常回收價格的一半，那麼實際上還是有利可圖的。所以——但我不知道這是否會是解決辦法，但至少這是目前正在討論的問題。

But it's still so that the sanctions are different countries kind of respect them to various degrees. Oil has a tendency to move anyway. So I have no illusions as to the vast amount of Iranian oil, which is currently kind of being clogged up a little bit. The vast amount of Russian oil, which struggles to find a home. I'm pretty sure it's going to find a home, and it's probably going to find a home on one way or another on ships that are either fully sanctioned, halfsanctional or whatever.

但制裁措施仍存在問題，各國對制裁的遵守程度也各不相同。石油本身就具有流動特性。所以我對伊朗石油儲量巨大這一點沒有任何幻想，只是目前這些石油的開採受到了一些阻礙。大量的俄羅斯石油，卻找不到銷路。我非常肯定它會找到歸宿，而且它很可能會以某種方式在完全授權、半授權或其他任何形式的船上找到歸宿。

So I think kind of that industry, that parallel industry, we're probably stuck with for a while. But the incremental barrel now does not come from the sanction nations. It actually comes from the compliance fleet, and that's the only part of the market we really care about.

所以我覺得，我們可能在一段時間內都得跟那個行業，那個平行行業，打交道。但新增的原油供應並非來自受制裁的國家。實際上，它來自合規車隊，而這正是我們真正關心的唯一市場部分。

That's very interesting. So sticking with the compliant barrels now, you've highlighted the tailwind to futures curve, gifts cargoes lifted from Middle East to Asia. That's not floating storage, like you said. So I'm wondering how that affects vessel demand given it sounds like the contango in the curve lines up nicely with normal voyage time lines anyway.

這很有意思。所以，現在我們繼續關注合規的桶裝原油，您已經強調了期貨曲線的順風，即從中東運往亞洲的贈品貨物。那不是你說的那種浮動儲存。所以我想知道這會對船舶需求產生什麼影響，因為曲線中的期貨溢價似乎與正常的航程時間線吻合得很好。

Yeah. No. So currently, we don't really have the contango and actually I'm no expert on oil pricing, but I'm actually quite surprised of the firmness in the oil price, considering the oil and transit numbers that we have. Remind you that oil in transit is a combination, of course, of backing up sanctioned oil. It's also backing up oil that was supposed to go to sanction terminals.

是的。不。所以目前我們並沒有真正出現期貨溢價，而且實際上我不是石油定價方面的專家，但考慮到我們掌握的石油和運輸數據，我對油價的堅挺程度確實感到驚訝。提醒各位，運輸中的石油當然是部分或全部獲得批准的石油的組合。它也造成了原本應該運往受制裁碼頭的石油的滯留。

And it's also -- but it's also commercial oil, which is backing up new to weather as well. That's a really old school winter market kind of thing is that there is actually some severe weather around key ports. So we're actually seeing extended kind of waiting time to discharge basically due to that.

而且，這也是商業石油，也受到了天氣的影響。這真是老式冬季市集的典型特徵，因為一些主要港口附近確實會遭遇惡劣天氣。所以，由於這個原因，我們看到出院等待時間實際上有所延長。

But with that kind of [pile of oil] sitting or being kind of in the logistical chain I'm surprised that we can have kind of front oil having at these levels. But anyway, if you believe in EIA or IEA or all the kind of market experts, we are actually going to be in an inventory build environment for the next 6-months-ish.

但是，考慮到有這麼多石油堆積在物流鏈中，我很驚訝我們還能以這樣的價格買到這麼多原油。但無論如何，如果你相信美國能源資訊署（EIA）、國際能源總署（IEA）或所有這類市場專家的說法，那麼在接下來的6個月左右，我們實際上將處於庫存增加的環境中。

But in order to get there in order for that to be even feasible, we can't have a steep accusation from oil. So then you get into this contango kind of shape of the curve. And that is interesting, as I mentioned in the presentation, because we tend to see trade lanes extend when you have some sort of carry in the oil curve.

但要實現這一點，甚至要讓這一切成為可能，我們就不能對石油業提出過高的指責。所以，曲線就呈現出這種正價差的形狀。正如我在演講中提到的，這很有趣，因為當石油曲線出現某種程度的滯銷時，我們往往會看到貿易通道延長。

And it doesn't need to be supportive of floating storage because then you need like $2, $2.5 per month in order for that to make sense. But only a modest 50% -- sorry, $0.50 contango helps or greases the trading system basically because you get a little bit of tailwind as we try to position our cargo.

而且它不需要支援浮動存儲，因為那樣的話，你每月需要花費 2 美元或 2.5 美元才能使其划算。但只有區區 50%——抱歉，是 0.50 美元的期貨溢價——基本上有助於或潤滑交易系統，因為當我們試圖定位貨物時，你會得到一點順風。

Omar Nokta, Jeffries.

奧馬爾諾克塔，傑弗里斯。

Thank you. Hi, Lars and Inger. Good afternoon. A couple of questions. I wanted to ask just about the LR2s. Obviously, there's a bit of a big gap between what's going on in majority and clean markets. And just wanted to -- if you can just remind us how you're trading those. And then also, do you have any comment regarding some of the chatter from last month that you had sold or in the process of selling that entire LR2 fleet.

謝謝。嗨，Lars 和 Inger。午安.幾個問題。我只想問一下關於路虎攬勝2（LR2）的問題。顯然，主流市場和清潔市場之間存在著相當大的差距。我只是想問一下——您能否提醒我們一下您是如何進行這些交易的？另外，對於上個月的一些傳言，說您已經出售或正在出售整個路虎LR2車隊，您有什麼評論嗎？

Yeah. So let's do the last one first, and that's no. And then do the first one. The kind of -- this spread right now surprises us a little bit as well. You're an expert analyst too. And you know that the kind of higher refinery margins, a lot of oil going through the system normally yields a lot of product exports and we haven't seen that yet.

是的。所以我們先來看最後一個，那就是不行。然後做第一個。這種趨勢——目前的蔓延方式也讓我們有些意外。你也是一位分析專家。你知道，煉油利潤率越高，經過煉油系統的石油量通常越大，最終產品出口量也越大，但我們還沒看到這種情況。

But I'd say that the setup for the LR2s look increasingly exciting because number one, due to the relatively stronger crude markets, a lot of LR2s are actually trading dirty. So it means there is a kind of limited amount of LR2s that are clean and ready to do a clean cargo at this minute.

但我認為，LR2 的配置看起來越來越令人興奮，因為第一，由於原油市場相對強勁，許多 LR2 實際上都在進行不正當交易。所以這意味著目前乾淨且隨時可以執行清潔貨物運輸任務的 LR2 數量有限。

Secondly, the Suezmax in particular, are making so much money in crude that there is no economics in cleaning up to do a clean cargo at these levels at all. So my point is, I don't think you need much in that market to flip it.

其次，特別是蘇伊士型油輪，它們在原油運輸中賺取了巨額利潤，因此在這種油價水平下，進行清潔運輸根本沒有經濟意義。所以我的意思是，我認為在那個市場上你不需要太多資金就可以轉手倒賣。

And it can actually be quite good or you can get this kind of exponential freight development basically because you don't have the line of a Suezmax cleanup or a VLCC clean on top of the LR2 market as it is right now. But I don't have a very good kind of factual answer to you on why we are in this situation.

實際上，這可能會相當不錯，或者說，你可以獲得這種指數級的貨運發展，這主要是因為在目前的 LR2 市場之上，你沒有 Suezmax 型油輪或 VLCC 型油輪的清理工作。但我無法給你一個確切的答案，解釋我們為什麼會陷入這種境地。

But I think we've already seen some kind of small signals the LR2s have run up $5,000 to $10,000 per day just in the last week. Now we're probably around $35,000 per day, Mark, maybe a bit above. It doesn't need much to take it further. So let's see.

但我認為我們已經看到了一些小訊號，LR2 在過去一周內每天上漲了 5000 至 10000 美元。馬克，現在我們每天的收入大概在 35,000 美元左右，也許會更高一些。無需太多就能更進一步。好，我們來看看。

Okay. Yeah. So maybe some convergence is happening at the moment. Okay. And I understand Lars, it sounds like you said no comment regarding the sale of the LR2s. But Humare perhaps if you were to potentially or if you were to consider selling those LR2s, what do you envision the use of proceeds would be kind of maybe along John's question, would it be more towards debt repayment, which it sounds like perhaps you don't want to do, would it be a special payout? Or would you consider rolling into Suezmax and VLCC classes?

好的。是的。所以，或許目前某種程度的融合正在發生。好的。我明白了，拉爾斯，聽起來你對LR2的出售不予置評。但是，Humare，如果你真的打算出售那些路虎LR2，你設想所得款項會怎麼用？也許可以參考John的問題，會更多用於償還債務嗎？聽起來你可能不想這樣做，會是一筆特別的款項嗎？或者您會考慮進軍蘇伊士型和超大型油輪船級市場嗎？

I think we're kind of between the lines, we're probably answering that in this presentation. And it's -- we're kind of we've been very patient since we started to expand our VLCC part of the fleet. That's grown 33% in the last 5-years. we've doubled the cost amount of ships. Regrettably, the trading pattern that developed after Russia, Ukraine did not really support the VLCCs at all.

我覺得我們已經在字裡行間回答了這個問題，我們可能已經在這次演講中回答了這個問題。而且——自從我們開始擴充船隊中的超大型油輪（VLCC）部分以來，我們一直非常有耐心。過去五年裡，這一數字成長了33%。船舶成本翻了一番。遺憾的是，俄羅斯和烏克蘭事件後形成的貿易模式並沒有真正支持超大型油輪的發展。

Now that is one, but it looks like at least right now, it's coming together. And it's the economies of scale that then gets into play. So kind of long term, if we were to divest of the LR2s. I think we also think that this market has some runway, just showing you kind of the fairly modest in our model, at least the very modest growth total in supply of tankers and actually, particularly so on the VLCCs and also our belief that the oil demand is probably going to grow for a few more years. I think it would be natural for us to focus on the big guns on the VLCCs.

這是其中之一，但至少目前看來，它正在逐步成型。然後規模經濟就開始發揮作用了。所以從長遠來看，如果我們要剝離 LR2 的話。我認為我們也認為這個市場還有一些成長空間，正如我們的模型所示，油輪供應總量的成長相當溫和，尤其是超大型油輪（VLCC）的供應總量成長非常溫和，而且我們相信石油需求可能會在未來幾年繼續成長。我認為我們自然會把注意力集中在超大型油輪上的大砲上。

Thanks Lars. I feel like that's fairly clear between the lines. And then just a last one, just in terms of the performance to date here in the fourth quarter. clearly, a nice big increase in your earnings power coming here across all three segments. But this is one of those few times where there's such a gap in terms of what you're showing as a realized average to date in the fourth quarter and where spot rates are.

謝謝你，拉爾斯。我覺得這意思已經很明顯了。最後，就第四季度迄今的業績而言，顯然，所有三個業務部門的獲利能力都出現了顯著增長。但這次的情況比較少見，你展示的第四季度迄今為止的實際平均價格與即期匯率之間存在如此大的差距。

And so you covered, say, just looking at the VLCCs, 75% of 4Q is at $83,000. The spot market stay well over 100 low to discharge accounting makes things a bit tricky here as we think about the realized average for the full quarter. Do you think, based off of where things are that there's upside to that $83,000 figure in this quarter? Or are we looking at basically these [$100,000-plus] rates becoming much more of a January item?

這樣一來，就VLCC而言，第四季的75%的份額為83,000美元。現貨市場價格遠高於 100，低至卸貨會計處理使得我們在考慮整個季度的實際平均值時，情況變得有點棘手。根據目前的情況來看，你認為本季 83,000 美元這個數字有上升的空間嗎？或者我們是不是要看到這些（10萬美元以上）的保單更多地出現在一月份？

I think I'll answer that question by saying that in the kind of the load dates that are being worked. So say you do efficiency day on the VLCC in the Middle East that has -- the rates there are around $130,000 per day right now. That's for loading on the to 11 -- 10 to 11 of December. So there kind of -- you have only 20-days that you would account for them in Q4 when you load that cargo. So half of it will actually come into January.

我認為我會這樣回答這個問題：在目前正在進行的加載日期範圍內。假設你在中東的一艘超大型油輪上進行效率測試，而那裡的油輪目前的日租金約為 13 萬美元。這是為了裝載到 12 月 10 日至 11 日的貨物。所以，你只有 20 天的時間來考慮第四季裝載貨物時的情況。所以其中一半其實會在一月到賬。

But if you go to Brazil, for instance, you're already fixing kind of around the 20% mark, if not further out on loading. So then you only have like 5- to 10-days that to account for that will actually affect Q4. And for US Gulf loading, it will be more or less the same. So I'm not going to say no.

但例如，如果你去巴西，你的加載速度就已經達到了 20% 左右，甚至更快。所以你只有大約 5 到 10 天的時間來考慮這會對第四季產生實際影響。對於美國墨西哥灣沿岸的貨物裝載來說，情況也大致相同。所以我不會說不。

We won't get more money into the chest before we close the year, but I can't categorically say yes either. We'll just have to see.

在年底之前，我們不會再往金庫裡存入更多錢了，但我也不能斷然回答「是」。我們拭目以待。

[Devin Sangofrom, Tech Investments]

[Devin Sangofrom，科技投資]

Thanks for giving me the opportunity to ask questions. Lars, I just wanted to ask more about the floating storage. And we're seeing that during the COVID. And how do you see this floating storage and how sustainable this demand?

謝謝您給我提問的機會。Lars，我只是想再問一下關於浮動式儲物櫃的問題。我們在新冠疫情期間就看到了這一點。您如何看待這種浮式儲能方式以及這種需求的可持續性？

If I understood you correctly. So yes, we have very high floating storage during COVID. That was, of course, more due to the fact that the demand disappeared overnight and supply could not follow. But we're also in a zero interest rate environment. which meant that the capital was basically free.

如果我理解沒錯的話。是的，新冠疫情期間我們的浮動儲存量非常高。當然，這主要是因為需求一夜之間消失，而供應卻無法跟上。但我們現在也處於零利率環境，這意味著資金基本上是免費的。

And that is an important part of this because if you're going to purchase or take position of 2 million barrels it's a sizable kind of amount of money, and we need to finance that. And that adds to the cost of storing on a vessel. So -- and this is why I mentioned that in order for floating storage, you are commercially on ships, you basically need $2.5 per month or $2, $2.50 per month or thereabouts. And that's a pretty steep contango. And we know we're actually in slight acquisition right now.

這是其中很重要的一部分，因為如果你要購買或持有 200 萬桶原油，那是一筆相當大的金額，我們需要為此籌集資金。這也會增加船舶上的儲存成本。所以——這就是我之前提到的原因，為了進行商業性的船舶浮動存儲，你基本上每月需要 2.5 美元或 2 美元、2.5 美元左右。那可是相當大的期貨溢價啊。我們知道我們目前實際上正處於小規模收購階段。

So it's we're nowhere near. The stories that we are seeing right now is more due to logistics or distressed or weather. So it's not commercial in that way. I don't know if that answered your question.

所以，我們離目標還很遠。我們現在看到的這些新聞更多是由於物流、災害或天氣原因造成的。所以它不屬於商業範疇。我不知道這是否回答了你的問題。

Yes, thank you. The second thing is that I've seen that different -- US has different part of sanction for blackout, UK has different EU has distant. And if you put -- so is there anything which has gone that total to fleet under different sanctions are now getting tighter? And what's your view on that?

是的，謝謝。第二點是，我發現情況有所不同──美國對停電的製裁措施有所不同，英國的製裁措施也不同，歐盟的製裁措施相距甚遠。如果你把──那麼，在不同的製裁措施下，艦隊總數是否有所減少，而這些制裁措施現在正在收緊？你對此有何看法？

Yeah. No, you're right. But it's actually a very high degree of correlation between these sanctions. So normally, it's just a question of time. EU sanctions on vessel, then OFAC will do it 2-weeks after and then UK, we'll do it more or less at the same time.

是的。不，你說得對。但實際上，這些制裁措施之間有非常高的相關性。所以通常來說，這只是時間問題。歐盟對該船實施制裁，然後美國財政部外國資產管制辦公室（OFAC）會在兩週後實施制裁，英國也會差不多同時實施制裁。

So there's actually a lot of overlap between these various kind of regulatory entity or regulatory bodies. So -- but it's for sure, it's getting tighter. And this is global politics, right? I think one doesn't need to be a rocket science to understand that, particularly US is putting a lot of pressure on Russia right now, basically to prime them for negotiations.

因此，實際上這些不同類型的監管實體或監管機構之間存在著許多重疊之處。所以——但可以肯定的是，情況越來越緊張了。這就是全球政治，對吧？我認為這不需要什麼高深的學問就能明白，特別是美國現在對俄羅斯施加很大的壓力，基本上是為了讓他們做好談判的準備。

I think this the Rosneft/Lukoil sanction was -- that was a direct kind of hit on creating a lot of trouble for this industry and for us is export. You're talking about half their exporting volumes that were serviced by Rosneft and Lukoil. For sure, these molecules will, at the end of the day, find their way somewhere. But I think we're probably going to see this pressure continue until we have some sort of resolve on the whole situation.

我認為對俄羅斯石油公司/盧克石油公司的製裁——這直接打擊了這個行業，給我們造成了很大的麻煩，而對我們來說，出口就是一個大問題。你說的可是他們一半的出口量，而這些出口量原本是由俄羅斯石油公司和盧克石油公司服務的。可以肯定的是，這些分子最終總是會找到它們的歸宿。但我認為，這種壓力可能會持續下去，直到我們對整個情況達成某種解決方案。

And last, you've seen last year, Q4 was not great, the seasonality didn't come up. But this year, if Q4 is good, but how do you see Q1 because Q1 is going to be as strong as last year or better than what we have seen, looking at the current scenario.

最後，正如你們去年所看到的，第四季業績不佳，季節性因素並沒有顯現出來。但今年，如果第四季表現良好，那麼你如何看待第一季呢？因為從目前的情況來看，第一季將會和去年一樣強勁，甚至比我們看到的還要好。

Well, you're asking me to give my view on one of the world's most volatile markets. actually, the fact that it is this volatility tells you that this is not an efficient market. It's a market that's extremely difficult to predict. But what I can say is that from what we're seeing right now, we're not seeing any kind of weakness in this market. We're seeing an old school extremely tight physical shipping market. So -- but of course, who knows what can happen next week.

嗯，您是想讓我談談我對世界上波動性最大的市場之一的看法。事實上，正是這種波動性表明，這不是一個有效市場。這是一個極難預測的市場。但我可以肯定地說，從我們目前觀察到的情況來看，這個市場沒有任何疲軟跡象。我們看到的是一個極度緊張的傳統實體運輸市場。所以——當然，誰知道下週會發生什麼事。

No because see, all the factors that the compliant code producers are gaining market share, that fleet is being targeted. The volumes of overall, at least -- as of today, there is no direct of China on consumption side. In fact, China is buying all the commodities in order to put the extra reserves. So put all things together, Q1 can sustain these rates I'm not asking you to predict, but it looks like Q1 can be better or as good as Q4 if conditions sustain.

不，因為你看，所有那些合規代碼生產商正在獲得市場份額的因素，都表明該車隊正成為攻擊目標。至少就目前而言，中國消費方面還沒有直接數據。事實上，中國購買所有大宗商品是為了增加儲備。綜上所述，第一季可以維持目前的成長率。我不是叫你做出預測，但如果情況持續下去，第一季看起來可能會比第四季更好，或至少和第四季一樣好。

Yeah. No, no. Yeah no. 100%. And I will point to we pointed to it in this report. There are some key fundamentals here. that will not change in the short term. It's -- there are some key drivers to this market that we didn't have Q4 last year to put it that way.

是的。不，不。不，不是。100%。我會指出，我們在這份報告中已經指出了這一點。這裡有一些關鍵的基本面，短期內不會改變。換句話說，這個市場有一些關鍵的驅動因素，而這些因素我們在去年第四季並沒有遇到。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions).

謝謝。（操作說明）

[Luis McKibben, Retired]

[路易麥基本，已退休]

Yes, Lars, I wanted to talk about [frame 7], Page 7, where you show the $11.50 a share generated with $149,000 daily VLCC rate. And having -- you were in the business back in the good old days of 2006 and 2008 and also during COVID, when they had the floating storage, but I think the rates went up to like $240,000, $260,000, $280,000, $300,000 a day. Was that right?

是的，拉爾斯，我想談談第 7 頁的 [第 7 幀]，其中你展示了以每日 149,000 美元的 VLCC 價格計算出的每股 11.50 美元。而且——你曾在2006年和2008年的黃金時期以及新冠疫情期間從事過這個行業，當時他們有浮式儲存設施，但我認為費率上漲到了每天240,000美元、260,000美元、280,000美元、300,000美元。是這樣嗎？

Yeah. That's right.

是的。這是正確的。

So if you were to get similar rates your free cash flow would be in excess of $20 a share. Would that be correct?

因此，如果你能獲得類似的利率，你的自由現金流將超過每股 20 美元。這樣對嗎？

Yeah. If you do that for 365 days, yes.

是的。如果你連續365天都這樣做，那麼是的。

It could happen. All right. The other thing was that I read somewhere where India will not accept a tanker in excess of 22-years old. And I was wondering if China has a similar policy.

這有可能發生。好的。另外，我還在某個地方看到，印度不會接收船齡超過 22 年的油輪。我想知道中國是否有類似的政策。

Well, China is not kind of uniform in that respect. They have kind of two different oil systems, one being the refer as the teapots, but these are big refineries that they're privately owned. And they, of course, have a little bit of a different kind of requirement. The terminals are then also privately owned.

嗯，中國在這方面並不統一。他們有兩種不同的石油系統，一種被稱為“茶壺”，但這些都是大型煉油廠，而且是私人擁有的。當然，他們的要求也略有不同。這些航站樓也都是私人所有。

But if you look at the government system in China, and UNIPEC, which is kind of the biggest, they actually normally have a 15-year kind of threshold but of course, they have a maneuvering room between the 15 and 20.

但如果你看看中國政府的體制，以及規模最大的聯合國國際石油開發計畫署（UNIPEC），他們通常都有一個 15 年的門檻，當然，他們在 15 年到 20 年之間有一定的迴旋餘地。

But you very rarely see them take a shift that is materially above 17-years old. So it's a little bit fluid on India. I haven't seen or heard what you're referring to. All I know is that if you say under an Indian flag and you're an Indian ship owner. They have at least up till now, except the trading all the way until 25-years.

但你很少會看到他們擔任年齡明顯高於 17 歲的職位。所以，關於印度的局勢還不太明朗。我沒看過也沒聽過你指的是什麼。我只知道，如果你說你駕駛的船隻懸掛印度國旗，而你又是印度船東。至少到目前為止，除了長達 25 年的交易之外，他們一直都是如此。

Thank you. Dear speakers, there are no further questions for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Lars Barstad for any closing remarks.

謝謝。各位發言者，今天沒有其他問題了。現在我謹將會議交給發言人拉爾斯·巴斯塔德先生，請他作總結發言。

Yeah. No, thank you very much again for listening in. It's extremely exciting times indeed. And I wish you the best for the remainder of the year. Thank you.

是的。不，再次非常感謝您的收聽。這的確是一個令人無比令人興奮的時代。祝您今年剩下的日子一切順利。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在你們都可以斷開連結了。祝你今天過得愉快。